Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-28-24 | Lions v. 49ers OVER 51 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 71 h 11 m | Show |
20* Lions/49ers NFC No-Brainer on OVER 51 BONUS PICK: I like a Ravens/49ers ML Parlay at basically even money. The 49ers played in the slop and rain last week against the Packers and it still should have gone over the 50.5-point total. They just needed the Packers to make a FG that would have tied the game at 24-24 and at the very least forced OT. But now the conditions are going to be perfect for a shootout in Santa Clara on Sunday with the forecast calling for temps in the 70's, 0% chance of precipitation and only 3 MPH winds. The 49ers face a dead nuts OVER team in the Detroit Lions who have an elite offense that can match them, but one of the worst defenses in the entire NFL. We saw the Lions allow 408 yards and and 6.8 yards per play against the Bucs last week and 425 yards and 7.7 yards per play to the Rams the week prior. The Lions also faced the Vikings twice in the final three weeks and gave up 448 yards and 6.4 per play in the second meeting and 390 yards and 7.6 per play in the first, and that was to backup QB Nick Mullens. Brock Purdy has a lot of critics for his performance against the Packers. But the fact of the matter is he has small hands and struggles in rain and that has been shown dating back to college. Purdy is in line for one of his best games of the season against this soft Detroit secondary that has allowed at least 319 passing yards in five consecutive games now. The worry was that Deebo Samuel would be out, but he returned to practice on Thursday and now Purdy should have his full compliment of weapons after Samuel was knocked out of the Green Bay game on the opening series. That changed their entire game plan as Samuel was a big part of it, which also hampered their offense. But Purdy came up big with his best drive of the game when they needed it most late in the 4th quarter to take the lead on the Packers, and that should have him brimming with confidence coming into this one and licking his chops at this opportunity to face Detroit's defense. With the 49ers likely playing from ahead, the Lions are going to have to play with more of a sense of urgency on offense. They have a great balanced attack that has produced 27.2 points per game, 232 rushing yards per game and 260 passing yards per game this season. The concern is usually with Jared Goff going outdoors because he has much better numbers indoors. But that concern is greatly mitigated with how perfect the weather conditions are going to be in Santa Clara. This San Francisco defense has taken a big step back from last season and isn't as ferocious as it has been in years' past. The 49ers gave up 29 points to the Cardinals and 33 points to the Ravens down the stretch. Their secondary isn't great and they are lacking a pass rush. They have also allowed over 100 rushing yards in four of their last five games. For the first time in the Shanahan era, the 49ers are actually led by their offense and not their defense. San Francisco is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. This one has shootout written all over it in a battle of two of the best offenses in the NFL up against two overrated defenses. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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01-28-24 | Chiefs v. Ravens OVER 44 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 31 m | Show |
20* Chiefs/Ravens AFC No-Brainer on OVER 44 BONUS PICK: I like a Ravens/49ers ML Parlay at basically even money. The Baltimore Ravens are scoring 32.1 points per game at home this season. That includes the 10 points they scored against the Steelers in Week 18 when they rested Lamar Jackson, or that number would be even higher. The Ravens have the best offense they have ever had in the Jim Harbaugh era. Todd Monken is a tremendous offensive coordinator and has gotten the most out of Lamar Jackson and all these playmakers. The Ravens even get Mark Andrews back this week after not having him for the second half of the season to add another weapon. The Chiefs have a great defense, but they got really banged up against the Bills last week. LB Willie Gay, who is the spy for Jackson, left that game with a neck injury and is questionable. Also questionable are CB L'Jarius Sneed and FS Mike Edwards, who also left the game last week. This Kansas City defense isn't what it was in the regular season. KC benefited from playing a weak schedule of opposing offenses this season. When they stepped up in class they gave up 27 points to the Packers and 24 to the Bills. They are weak against the run, and the Ravens are the best rushing team in the NFL. I expect the Ravens to get what they want on the ground and to control this game from ahead. With the Ravens being ahead, the Chiefs are going to be forced to try and play catch up, which is going to be good for the OVER. The Chiefs have been playing with more tempo to try and get in a rhythm on offense, and it is working in these playoffs. They had 26 points and 409 total yards on the Dolphins and 27 points and 361 total yards on the Bills. They averaged 7.7 yards per play against the Bills last week and had eight plays of 20-plus yards. No question the Ravens have elite defensive numbers this season, but they also benefited from playing backup and rookie QB's this season. We saw them give up 33 points to the Browns when De'Sean Watson was healthy. They also gave up 31 points to the Rams and 429 total yards to the 49ers. I don't think they are as good defensively as their numbers would suggest, and the Chiefs will be able to score on them as well. Kansas City is 8-1 OVER in its last nine road game with a total of 42.5 to 49 points. Andy Reid is 13-3 OVER as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of Kansas City. The Chiefs play with more of a sense of urgency on offense when they are tested. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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01-20-24 | Packers v. 49ers OVER 50 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 132 h 38 m | Show |
20* Packers/49ers NFC No-Brainer on OVER 50 The San Francisco 49ers are scoring 28.9 points per game this season. They will be able to name their number on this Green Back Packers defense that is one of the worst in the NFL. The Packers allowed 34 points to the Bucs, 30 to the Panthers and 32 to the Cowboys down the stretch. Green Bay's defense was on the field for 85 snaps against the Cowboys and gave up 510 yards on Sunday. Now they are gassed and on a short week having to play on Saturday this week. They lost CB Jaire Alexander and LB Kinglsey Enagbare to injury in that game and both are unlikely to play this week. Fellow starters in DE Kenny Clark, RB Rashan Gary, FS Darnell Savage and SS Jonathan Owens are also banged up and questionable. The 49ers are going to score 34-plus points in this one to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket. But I think the Packers can keep pace with how well Jordan Love is playing. Love has a 21-to-1 TD/INT ratio in his last nine games and is playing as well as any QB in the NFL. He has all of his weapons healthy and that has made a big difference. He went 16-of-21 for 272 yards and three touchdowns against the Cowboys. The Packers have now scored at least 20 points in eight of their last nine games overall and are averaging 28.0 points per game during this stretch. They will get 20-plus in this one. The lone exception was 17 in poor weather against the Bears, but they had 432 total yards on a very good Chicago defense and should have scored more. They will find success throwing the ball against the 49ers, whose weakness is in their secondary defensively. The 49ers haven't faced many offenses as good as Green Bay's this season. Green Bay is 8-2 OVER in road games this season. The OVER is 7-0 in Packers seven road games against NFC opponents this season. Green Bay is 8-0 OVER in its last eight games off an upset win as an underdog. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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01-14-24 | Packers v. Cowboys OVER 49.5 | Top | 48-32 | Win | 100 | 162 h 12 m | Show |
20* NFC Wild Card TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Packers/Cowboys OVER 49.5 The Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys are two dead nuts OVER teams. They both have great quarterbacks and great offenses but suspect defenses. The books failed to set this total high enough as these teams will easily combine for 50-plus points in this game to cash this OVER 49.5 ticket. The Cowboys are averaging 37.4 points per game at home this season. The Packers have scored at least 20 points in seven of their final eight games to close out the season. The lone game they didn't they scored 17 against the Bears in the finale and deserved better, but they kneeled in scoring position at the end and had 432 total yards against a very good Chicago defense. Love has an 18-to-1 TD/INT ratio in his last eight games and is playing as well as any QB in the league down the stretch. But the Packers have a suspect defense that allowed 19 or more points in seven consecutive games before holding both the Vikings and Bears below that number to close the season. But the Vikings started a 4th-string QB and the Bears aren't very good offensively. They gave up 30 points to the lowly Panthers and 34 to the Bucs the two games prior. Dallas will get its points in this one. The Cowboys gave up 420 yards to the Lions, 375 to the Dolphins, 31 points to the Bills and 35 points to the Seahawks down the stretch. The Packers can have the same kind of success because they are on the same level as those offenses with the way they have been playing of late. There's a chance Jordan Love has all of his weapons back this week if Christian Watson returns from a hamstring injury, but he has proven he can move the football and score points no matter who is out there. It will be perfect conditions inside the dome in Arlington for a shootout. The OVER is 12-1 in the last 13 meetings in Dallas with nine of those seeing 50 or more combined points. Each of the last four meetings between the Cowboys and Packers have seen 58 or more combined points. Green Bay is 6-0 OVER in road games vs. NFC opponents this season. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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01-13-24 | Browns v. Texans OVER 43 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 138 h 10 m | Show |
25* AFC Wild Card TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Browns/Texans OVER 43 The Cleveland Browns are a dead nuts OVER team with Joe Flacco. They are a dead nuts OVER team on the road as well. This total of 43 is too short when you factor in Flacco, Cleveland being on the road and the healthy return of CJ Stroud for Houston. The Browns are 8-0 OVER on the road this season. A big reason for that is their defense has been very leaky on the highway. The Browns allow 29.6 points per game on the road this season, and their road games are averaging 54.0 combined points per game. The Browns have become very pass-happy with Flacco at QB. They have attempted 44 or more passes in four of his five starts this season. The only exception was in the 37-20 win over the Jets in which they were just trying to protect the lead late and ran it more. They have scored 31 or more points in three of Flacco's last four starts with the lone exception being against a very good Chicago defense at home in tough whether conditions when they only scored 20. The Texans are humming on offense again with Stroud back healthy. They scored 26 points against the Titans two weeks ago and 23 against the Colts last week to clinch the AFC South title. I have no doubt the Texans are going to unleash him against the Browns and use the entire playbook to try and pull off the upset. This game will be played mostly through the air due to both teams being good against the run, knowing that the weakness of both defenses are more against the pass. Cleveland played Houston on the road earlier this season on December 24th and 2on 36-22 for 58 combined points. And that was with Case Keenum at QB for the Texans and Davis Mills replacing him. The Browns had 364 passing yards in that game and did whatever they wanted to through the air. They will be able to deploy that same game plan, but this time they will get more resistance from Houston's offense with Stroud under center. Plus, there's a decent chance Stroud gets a pair of weapons back in WR Noah Brown and WR Robert Woods from injury that they didn't have against Indianapolis. This game has shootout written all over it inside the dome in perfect conditions in Houston. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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01-07-24 | Seahawks v. Cardinals OVER 47.5 | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 146 h 31 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Seahawks/Cardinals OVER 47.5 The Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks have two of the worst defenses in the NFL right now. The Cardinals allow 27.1 points per game and 357.5 yards per game including 31.0 points per game and 374.3 yards per game at home. The Seahawks allow 365.4 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play on the season, and they are coming off a really poor performance against the Steelers. Indeed, the Seahawks allowed 30 points and 468 total yards to the Steelers last week. They gave up 202 rushing yards and have now allowed 136 or more rushing yards in six consecutive games. That's bad news for their defense going up against an Arizona offense that rushed for 234 yards against the 49ers and 221 yards on the Eagles in two of their last three games. Arizona just lit up Philadelphia's defense for 35 points and 449 total yards last week. They will do what they want against this soft Seattle defense. Seattle's offense put up 23 points and 369 yards on the Steelers last week. They will be able to do whatever they want for the most part against this Arizona defense as well. Arizona has allowed 406 or more yards in four of their last six games. Arizona is a perfect 7-0 OVER at home this season. Six of those seven games have seen 48 or more combined points. Arizona home games are seeing an average of 55.0 combined points per game. The conditions are perfect inside their dome which is a big reason for this. So this total of 47.5 has been set too low for this matchup between two capable offenses and two dreadful defenses indoors. The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in Arizona with 52, 68 and 71 combined points in those three. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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01-06-24 | Texans v. Colts OVER 47 | Top | 23-19 | Loss | -110 | 125 h 9 m | Show |
20* Texans/Colts AFC South No-Brainer on OVER 47 The Indianapolis Colts are getting healthy are the right time on offense. They just got RB Jonathan Taylor and WR Michael Pittman back from injury, and backup RB Zack Moss should return this week as well. All three starting offensive linemen that were questionable earlier this week all got in practices on Thursday as well and should all play. The Houston Texans just got QB CJ Stroud back from injury last week in time to beat the Titans 26-3. Stroud makes all the difference for this offense as they were terrible without him. Stroud went 30-of 47 passing for 337 yards in the first meeting with the Colts, who have a suspect secondary that he can take advantage of in this one. The weakness of the Texans is their banged-up secondary as well, and you can't run on them and the Colts know it. They will come up with a pass-happy game plan for this one which will lead to more scoring and keep the clock stopped more often. Gardner Minshew replaced an injury Anthony Richardson in their 31-20 win at Houston earlier this season. He went 19-of-23 passing for 171 yards and a touchdown in relief and has held onto the job ever since. Which ever team is trailing is fully capable of coming back due to their passing attacks. And the Colts run one of the fastest tempos in the NFL. The OVER is 7-1 in Indianapolis home games this season as they are scoring 26.5 points per game and averaging 372.5 yards per game at home, while allowing 25.8 points per game and 358.5 yards per game at home. The Colts and their opponents are combining to average 52.3 points per game at home this season. Indianapolis is 6-0 OVER in its last six games vs. poor pass defenses that allow 7 or more yards per attempt in the 2nd half of the season. It will be perfect conditions inside the dome for a shootout Saturday night, and neither team is going to give up if they are trailing with everything at stake here. I think we see a shootout between two of the most underrated offenses in the NFL in a back and forth affair. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday night. |
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12-31-23 | Packers v. Vikings OVER 44 | Top | 33-10 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 38 m | Show |
20* Packers/Vikings NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 44 The Green Bay Packers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall with 46 or more combined points in all five games. This is a very low total for a game involving the Packers, especially matched up with another team that is playing to OVERS recently. Plus, this game will be indoors in perfect conditions Sunday night in Minnesota. Jordan Love has made the leap in the 2nd half of the season and is playing much better. He has led the Packers to 19 or more points in eight consecutive games, including 27 or more three times in his last four games. They put up 33 on a very good Carolina defense on the road last week. But the Packers cannot stop anyone. They have allowed 19 or more points in seven consecutive games. That includes 30 to the Panthers, 34 to the Bucs and 24 to the Giants the last three weeks. That's really poor when you consider those are three of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Packers won't have top CB Jaire Alexander to cover Justin Jefferson as he was suspended for one game for conduct detrimental to the team. The Vikings will have the element of surprise this week going with rookie QB Jaren Hall. It always seems to give the offense a spark in that first game with a new starter that nobody has film on. While TE TJ Hockensen was lost for the season, WR Jordan Addison returned to practice this week. Hall should have Addison to go along with one of the best receivers in the game in Justin Jefferson, plus the two-headed monster of Chandler and Mattison in the backfield. Love has torched the blitz this season and will torch Minnesota's blitz-happy scheme as well. The Vikings have really regressed defensively in recent weeks. They allowed 27 points and 378 total yards to the Bengals two weeks ago and 30 points and 389 total yards to the Lions last week. Green Bay is 22-4 OVER in its last 26 road games after allowing 25 points or more in two consecutive games. The Packers are 6-0 OVER in their last six games following a win. Minnesota is 6-0 OVER in its last six December home games. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday night. |
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12-31-23 | Cardinals v. Eagles OVER 47.5 | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 121 h 2 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Eagles OVER 47.5 Two leaky defenses square off against two mobile quarterbacks who can beat you with their arm and their leges. This has shootout written all over it as the Arizona Cardinals visit the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday. The Eagles got their offense back on track last week with 33 points and 465 total yards against the Giants. Now they face an Arizona defense that is one of the worst in the NFL, allowing 26.9 points per game, 363 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play this season. The Cardinals are severely banged up on defense to boot. Arizona has been much better offensively with Kyler Murray at QB and a healthy James Connor at RB. They put up 24 points and 150 rushing yards on the Steelers three games ago and 29 points and 234 rushing yards on the 49ers two weeks ago. They will be able to run on this Philadelphia defense, which has allowed 100-plus rushing yards in six consecutive games. This is also a very tired, banged up Philadelphia defense. They have allowed 20 or more points in five consecutive games, including 34 points and 510 yards to the Bills, 42 points and 456 yards to the 49ers, 33 points and 394 yards to the Cowboys and 25 points to the lowly Giants last week. The Cardinals will get their points as well. I expect Philly to get to 31 and Arizona to get to at least 20 in this one. The OVER is 11-1 in Eagles last 12 home games in the 2nd half of the season. Arizona is 14-5 OVER in its last 19 games vs. poor pass defenses that allow 61% completions or higher. The forecast looks good with temps in the 40's and only 10 MPH winds expected in Philadelphia. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-31-23 | Titans v. Texans OVER 42.5 | 3-26 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 10 m | Show | |
15* AFC TOTAL OF THE DAY on Titans/Texans OVER 42.5 The Houston Texans get CJ Stroud back from a concussion after missing the last two games. They should get back to being the same dominant, explosive offensive team they were before they lost him. And some time on the sidelines can really do a rookie good to see the game from a different perspective. I expect him to come back fresh and ready to go. The Titans have eight defenders either on IR or out for this one. They have four more listed as questionable. This is a very poor Tennessee defense, especially on the road. The Titans are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in road games this season, allowing 23.9 points per game, 362.8 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play. The Titans are expected to get Will Levis back at QB this week. He is more of an 'OVER' QB than Ryan Tannehill, who prefers to dink and dunk. Levis is not afraid to take deep shots, and he will make more mistakes than Tannehill will, which is good for OVERS. You cannot run on this Houston defense, so the Titans are going to have to go with a pass-happy approach. I also expect them to be trailing in this one like they were against Miami a few weeks ago and had to throw it a ton in a game that saw 55 combined points. The Texans also have their fair share of injuries on defense including Will Anderson, Sheldon Rankins and Maliek Collins, who all missed practice on Thursday. They have seven starters questionable for this one. The Texans were lit up for 36 points and 418 total yards by the Browns last week. The Titans will have their opportunities to score on this defense as well, especially through the air. This total is too low due to these teams combining for just 35 points in their first meeting in Tennessee a few weeks ago. But now Stroud replaces Keenum and there's value in the OVER 42.5 here. They also go from playing an outdoor game on grass in the elements in Tennessee to perfect conditions inside the dome here in Houston. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-31-23 | Rams v. Giants OVER 42 | 26-25 | Win | 100 | 98 h 56 m | Show | |
15* Rams/Giants NFC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 42 The Rams are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 48 or more combined points in all five games. It would be 5-0 if not for a missed extra point by the Commanders. They combined for 52 points with the Saints, 48 with the Commanders, 66 with the Ravens, 55 with the Browns and 51 with the Cardinals. This total of 42 is very low for a game involving the Rams right now. The Rams have been dynamic on offense with Stafford, Williams, Kupp and Nacua all healthy at the same time. That has been the case for them during this offensive resurgence. They are averaging 32.4 points per game and 433.8 yards per game in their last five games overall as the most dynamic offense in the NFL during this stretch. Now they face a New York Giants defense that just allowed 33 points and 465 total yards to the Eagles last week. The Giants allow 134 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry this season, so Williams is in line for another big game on the ground. That will open things up for Stafford in play-action. I like the fact that the Giants are going with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback this week. He is probably their best option. Taylor led the Giants to 22 second-half points against the Eagles last week after they were held to just 3 points in the first half with Tommy DeVito. Taylor went 7-of-16 passing for 133 yards with one touchdown and one interception, while also rushing for 21 yards on his two attempts. The Giants have all of their top playmakers healthy right now including RB Barkley and TE Waller. The OVER is 4-2 in Giants last six games overall with 46 or more combined points in four of those six games. The only two exceptions were against the Patriots in bad weather and up against a bad New England offense. They also went under the total against the Saints, who also have one of the league's least-explosive offenses. The forecast looks good for a shootout in this one with temps in the 40's, sunny skies and single-digit winds at MetLife Stadium in New York. The Rams allow 24.1 points per game on the road this season. I'm expecting the Rams to get 27-plus in this one and the Giants to get to at least 20. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-31-23 | 49ers v. Commanders OVER 48 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 8 m | Show |
20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 49ers/Commanders OVER 48 Two dead nuts OVER teams square off Sunday when the San Francisco 49ers visit the Washington Commanders. The 49ers have one of the most potent offenses in the NFL but currently a leaky defense. The Commanders have the single worst defense in the NFL currently but a capable offense. The 49ers have scored 27 or more points in six of their last seven games overall. The lone exception was the 19 against the Ravens, but they still managed 429 total yards despite scoring just 19 points due to committing five turnovers that took a bunch of points off the board. The 49ers have been sub par defensively of late, allowing 29 points and 436 total yards to the Cardinals two weeks ago and 33 points and 343 yards to the Ravens last week. The Commanders have allowed at least 28 points in six consecutive games now. They just gave up 30 points to the lowly Jets lsat week. They also allowed 31 to the Giants during this stretch, so everyone is scoring on them. But the Commanders are going to Jacoby Brissett at QB, and he has led them on multiple TD drives in the 2H of two consecutive games replacing Sam Howell. The Commanders keep coming with him under center and will keep coming even if they fall way behind the 49ers. The 49ers will get 35 points in this one, so we only need 14 from the Commanders to cash this OVER ticket, and I don't see that being a problem. The 49ers and their opponents have combined for at least 51 points in three of their last four games. The Commanders and their opponents have combined for at least 48 points in six consecutive games. They are 5-1 OVER in those six games and if not for a missed XP on their final score against the Rams would be 6-0. The forecast looks good for a shootout in this one with temps in the 50's, no precipitation and only 7 MPH winds in Washington. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-30-23 | Lions v. Cowboys OVER 52 | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -110 | 131 h 58 m | Show |
25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lions/Cowboys OVER 52 The Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions are both dead nuts OVER teams, especially when the games are played indoors. The Cowboys are averaging 39.9 points per game at home this season while the Lions are averaging 31.8 points per game in dome games, which includes their seven home games and road games at the Chargers, Saints and Vikings. That's an average of over 70 combined points per game in indoor games for their offenses. This total of 52 is too low. Dallas will get its offense back on track this week after having to go outdoors and play two very good defenses in the Bills and Dolphins the last two weeks. Both of those outdoor games went under the total, which has provided us some line value to back the OVER in this one. Now they face a bad Lions defense that allows 25.3 points per game, 351.1 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play on the road this season. The OVER is 6-1 in Detroit's last seven games overall. Detroit and their opponents have combined for at least 51 points in six of those seven games, including 54 or more five times. That includes games against poor offensive teams in the Bears, Saints, Broncos and Vikings. Now they get to face another great offense that can match them, and what is an overrated Dallas defense that has been exposed in recent weeks. Detroit is 8-2 OVER in turf games this season. Dallas is 9-2 OVER in its last 11 home games after the first month of the season. The Lions are 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games following a win. Both offenses have all of their top playmakers on offense healthy, while both defenses are missing key players to injury. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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12-28-23 | Jets v. Browns OVER 33.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
20* Jets/Browns AFC No-Brainer on OVER 33.5 The Cleveland Browns have been a dead nuts OVER team since getting Joe Flacco. Their pass rate has gone through the roof with 44 or more pass attempts in all four games he has started. The Browns and their opponents have combined for 58, 37, 58, 55 and 41 points in their last five games overall. As you can see, all five games would have gone over this short 33.5-point total, making for a 5-0 system backing the OVER. The New York Jets and their opponents have combined for at least 36 points in four of their last six games overall. It doesn't take much for an NFL game to top 33.5 combined points, especially with 34 being a very key number with 17-17, 20-14, 21-13 and 24-10 being four common scores that would get us to the OVER. The Jets are also throwing the ball a ton right now with 36 or more attempts in five consecutive games. Trevor Siemian threw it 49 times against the Commanders last week in leading the Jets to 30 points. Both teams are pretty much fully healthy on offense from a playmakers perspective, which is something I want when backing an OVER. Kevin Stefanski is 8-1 OVER in home games after gaining 400 or more yards last game as the coach of Cleveland. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. |
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12-25-23 | Ravens v. 49ers OVER 45.5 | Top | 33-19 | Win | 100 | 176 h 51 m | Show |
25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ravens/49ers OVER 45.5 The San Francisco 49ers have been an offensive juggernaut when healthy this season. That basically means when they have had Trent Williams, Deebo Samuel and CMC on the field at the same time. They got all three back healthy coming out of their bye week and have gone 6-0 since, scoring at least 27 points in every win while averaging 34.5 points per game in those six games. The 49ers will get their points against a Baltimore defense that benefited from the Jaguars beating themselves offensively last week. They drove inside the Baltimore 40 a handful of times and only had 7 points to show for it. The 49ers will capitalize on their opportunities as they are one of the best red zone offenses in the NFL. They will capitalize similar to the Rams, who put up 31 points and 449 yards on the Ravens the week prior in a 31-37 (OT) defeat. This one will be a similar shootout. The Ravens have scored at least 31 points in six of their last eight games overall. They have their best offense of the Lamar Jackson era, averaging 27.4 points per game, 374.1 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. They haven't been as good as the 49ers, who average 30.4 points per game, 402.6 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play, but they are still one of the top offenses in the NFL. The 49ers just allowed 29 points and 436 total yards to the Cardinals last week. A big reason for their struggles defensively last week were injuries as they were missing LB Oren Burks, DT Javon Hargrave and DT Arik Armstead. CB Deomodore Lenoir also suffered an injury in that game. Burks, Hargrave and Armstead all missed practice again Thursday after sitting out last week, a bad sign for their availability Monday. Lenoir did return to practice. The 49ers struggle to defend mobile quarterbacks which is why Kyler Murray and the Cardinals had so much success against them last week. They rushed for 234 yards on the 49ers. Now the 49ers must face Lamar Jackson and a Baltimore offense that averages 164 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry. But the 49ers should have success on the ground as well to open things up for Brock Purdy. The Ravens have allowed at least 128 rushing yards in five of their last nine games overall. I expect the 49ers to 30-plus in this one and the Ravens to get 20-plus. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
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12-24-23 | Browns v. Texans OVER 41.5 | 36-22 | Win | 100 | 157 h 11 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Browns/Texans OVER 41.5 Note: I grabbed this OVER 41.5 Sunday night with the anticipation it would move higher once CJ Stroud was announced in. Now that he's not playing it has only been adjusted down to 40 as of this writing. I love the OVER 40 even with Case Keenum starting in his place. Here's why: The Cleveland Browns have the No. 1 ranked scoring defense in the NFL at home but the 31st-ranked scoring defense on the road. They allow 30.7 points per game and 6.1 yards per play on the road this season. The OVER is 6-0 on all Cleveland road games as a result. The Browns have also been much better offensively on the road than they have been at home. They are scoring 24.2 points per game on the road. Now they get to go play indoors with perfect scoring conditions in Houston. This total of 40 is way too low for a road game involving the Browns. Cleveland has gone to a pass-happy scheme since signing Joe Flacco. They attempted 45 passes against the Bears, 45 against the Jaguars and 44 against the Rams. All these pass attempts stop the clock more often and are beneficial to OVERS. They are trying to get the ball out of Flacco's hand quick to help make up for injuries on the offensive line. And Flacco has shown he's still one of the best deep ball throwers in the game. This total has been adjusted down too much off the news that CJ Stroud is unlikely to play for a second straight week. Veteran Case Keenum went on the road last week and beat the Titans. He rebounded from an early pick-6 to lead the comeback victory in OT. He will be much more comfortable in his 2nd game in this offensive scheme, which is one of the most diverse in the league. Devin Singletary had 170 yards from scrimmage to take some of the pressure off Keenum last week, and he has emerged as a serious weapon in this offense. Both Flacco and Keenum are prone to turnovers as Flacco has already thrown five interceptions in his three starts, while Keenum threw that terrible Pick 6 last week. These turnovers could certainly help set up some easy scoring opportunities for both of these offenses. Plus, these offenses will be up against two injury-ravaged defenses, and this is as much a play against these defenses as anything. The Browns have three players on IR and five more questionable on defense. The Texans have five players on IR and 5 defensive starters currently questionable. The Texans have gotten some key weapons back healthy on offense recently in Noah Brown and Dalton Schultz, plus Nico Collins returned to practice this week. They average 24.7 points per game, 394 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play at home this season. The Browns have all of their top skill players fully healthy for this one, and they are forming chemistry with Flacco. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-24-23 | Colts v. Falcons OVER 43.5 | Top | 10-29 | Loss | -110 | 161 h 56 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Colts/Falcons OVER 43.5 The Indianapolis Colts are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 10-4 OVER in all games this season. They run an up-tempo, creative offense under Shane Steichen and have a terrible defense. The Colts are expected to get their two biggest playmakers back on offense this week in WR Michael Pittman Jr. and RB Jonathan Stewart. Now they hit the road to face an Atlanta Falcons team that is also built for more OVERS, especially with the upgrade of Taylor Heineke at QB. Arthur Smith said Heineke will start the rest of the way as he is tired of watching Desmond Ridder and this offense struggle in the red zone with dumb turnovers. He had another key turnover as the Falcons were trying to put the game away late in a 9-7 loss to the Panthers in terrible weather conditions outdoors last week. That score is suppressing this total as well and providing us with some line value on the OVER. The Falcons have been much more potent offensively at home. They score 23.3 points per game, averaging 388 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play at home. But they have a poor defense that has allowed 25 or more points in four of their last seven games. Both teams will get their points in this one. The Falcons have rushed for 122 or more yards in six of their last seven games overall. I like this matchup for their offense up against a Colts defense that has allowed 111 or more rushing yards in seven of their last eight games overall. But the Colts will get their points as well as they always do, putting up 27 or more points in six of their last eight games overall. Indianapolis is 8-2 OVER in games played on turf this season. The Colts are 25-7 OVER in their last 32 road games after covering the spread in four of their last five games. Plays on the OVER on all teams against the total (Atlanta) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent in the 2nd half of the season are 30-9 (76.9%) over the last five seasons. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-23-23 | Bills v. Chargers OVER 43.5 | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 103 h 42 m | Show | |
15* Bills/Chargers AFC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 43.5 The Los Angeles Chargers absolutely quit defensively last week. They gave up 63 points to the lowly Raiders, who had been shut out the previous week. I don't trust this defense to show up at all against the Bills on Saturday, and I expect the Bills to hang a big number on the Chargers to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket. The Bills have scored at least 31 points in three of their last four games overall and I expect them to get 31-plus in this one. I like what I saw from the Chargers offensively late in that loss to the Raiders. They were down 63-7 and kept trying to score, putting up two touchdowns in the final eight minutes. They will keep coming on offense as Easton Stick is trying to prove he belongs. The Bills have a very banged up defense. They are without CB White and LB MIlano, plus a ton of players have the questionable tag this week in DE Epenesa, DT Phillips, DE Floyd, CB Elam and FS Hyde. They would be a legit Super Bowl contender if they could just get some of these guys healthy, but that won't be the case this week. The Chargers have five defenders on IR and four more questionable for this one. The Chargers and Bills have combined for 44, 51 and 78 points in their last three meetings. This total is just too short tonight for a game involving these two banged-up defenses and two capable offenses in perfect scoring conditions in Los Angeles. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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12-21-23 | Saints v. Rams OVER 44.5 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 96 h 20 m | Show |
20* Saints/Rams NFC No-Brainer on OVER 44.5 The Los Angeles Rams are healthy on offense with Stafford, Nacua, Kupp and Williams and showing what they are capable of when that's the case. The Rams have scored 28 or more points in four consecutive games and are averaging 33 points per game in those four games and hung 31 on the Ravens and 36 on the Browns, two of the best defenses in the NFL. The Saints' defense isn't nearly as good as it gets credit for. The Saints have faced one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses and quarterbacks this season. They still gave up 27 points to the Colts, 27 to the Vikings and 24 to the Falcons. The only legit offense they faced in recent weeks was the Lions, and they gave up 33 points in a 33-28 loss that saw 61 combined points. They are without CB Marshon Lattimore and S Marcus Maye, and their secondary will get exposed by the Rams. But the Saints are getting healthier on offense now and showing what they are capable of. They have scored 24 or more points six of their last eight games overall. Now they are expected to get back their top receiver in Chris Olave for this one after he sat out against the Giants with an ankle injury. I think they can keep pace with the Rams and will be forced to try and keep up in a shootout because they aren't going to be able to stop Stafford and company. The last four Rams' games have seen 48, 68, 55 and 51 combined points. The Rams and Saints have combined for at least 46 points in five of their last six meetings. This 44.5-point total is too short. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. |
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12-18-23 | Eagles v. Seahawks OVER 47.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 170 h 24 m | Show |
20* Eagles/Seahawks ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 47.5 The Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks have two banged up, tired defenses right now heading into this Monday Night Football showdown. These are also two very healthy offenses that can take advantages of these defenses. That's why I'm on the OVER, plus the forecast looks pretty good for a shootout with light winds and temps in the 40's. The Seahawks have allowed 33.3 points per game, 438.3 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play in their last three games. They have six players in the front seven depth chart that are out or on the IR. They have two more secondary players on IR and three more questionable, including CB Devon Witherspoon. They have no depth right now, and SS Jamal Adams continues to get exposed in coverage week after week. The Eagles are allowing 36.3 points per game, 451.7 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play in their last three games. The Eagles have four players on IR in the back seven, plus FS Reed Blankenship suffered a concussion last week and will likely sit. He means a lot to his secondary. CB Darius Slay has lost a step and is questionable. Opponents are really picking on this Eagles' secondary, and the Seahawks will be able to do the same. This defense was on the field for 73 plays against the Chiefs, 91 against the Bills, 55 against the 49ers and then 71 plays against the Cowboys. The Eagles have been getting a lot of grief on offense the last two games against the 49ers and Cowboys. They fumbled three times in Dallas territory and should have scored more. They finally get a reprieve here against the Seahawks, who have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. So they should get right on offense. The Seahawks have been good offensively the last two weeks scoring 35 points against the Cowboys before Geno Smith sat out last week, but they were still productive against the 49ers. They get Smith back this week from a groin injury and also take a big step down in defensive class here after having to face the 49ers (twice) and Cowboys in their last three games. Pete Carroll is 30-12 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of Seattle. Both of these teams are dead nuts OVER teams in their current form and both offenses should be able to take advantage of two of the worst secondaries in the NFL. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
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12-17-23 | 49ers v. Cardinals OVER 47.5 | 45-29 | Win | 100 | 143 h 54 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on 49ers/Cardinals OVER 47.5 The San Francisco 49ers have the best offense in the NFL right now. They are scoring 29.2 points per game, averaging 402.3 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play. They are fully healthy on offense right now and have scored at least 27 points in five consecutive games. They will get their points against the Cardinals this week as well. But I think the Cardinals can get their points, too. They are coming off a bye week and should get WR Michael Wilson back this week. The Cardinals put up 24 points on the Steelers the game going into their bye, and they are primed for another solid performance here against the 49ers. They should have some new offensive wrinkles for Murray under a first-year head coach coming out of their bye. The Cardinals do have one of the worst defenses in the NFL allowing 25.5 points per game, 355.3 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play. They have allowed 35, 38, 38 and 31 points to the 49ers in their last four meetings. The OVER is 4-0 in those four meetings with 48 or more combined points in all four. The 49ers have a very good defense, but they have some concerning injuries on that side of the ball right now. Four starters in LB Dre Greenlaw, CB Charvarius Ward, DL Javon Hargrave and LB Oren Burks all missed practice on Wednesday and are all questionable to play this week. The Seahawks found success against them last week even with backup QB Drew Lock. I think this could be a letdown spot for this San Francisco defense. Josh Dobbs and Arizona's offense put up 362 total yards on the 49ers in their first meeting this season. Kyler Murray should have even more success. The OVER is 5-0-1 in Arizona's six home games this season inside the dome. We are seeing 51.9 combined points per game in these six games. Five of the six games have seen 48 or more combined points. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-17-23 | Commanders v. Rams OVER 48.5 | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 164 h 12 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Commanders/Rams OVER 48.5 The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team. The OVER 4-0 in their last four games overall with 50 or more combined points in all four. They have gone for 50 or more combined points in five of their last six games with the lone exception being their game against the Patriots, who are a dead nuts under team with no offense and a great defense. The Commanders have the worst defense in the NFL since they traded away Chase Young and Montez Sweat. They weren't very good before making those moves, but they have been even worse after. They allowed 38 points to the Eagles, 29 points and 489 yards to the Seahawks, 31 points to the Giants, 45 points and 431 yards to the Cowboys and then 45 points and 406 yards to the Dolphins in their five games other than the Patriots during this stretch. The Rams are going to hang a big number on them, too. The Rams are humming on offense right now scoring 37 points with 457 yards on the Cardinals, 36 points with 399 yards on the Browns and 31 points with 410 yards against the Ravens. Baltimore and Cleveland have two of the best defenses in the NFL, so this will be a big step down in class for them. The OVER is 3-0 in Rams last three games overall with 51, 55 and 68 combined points. Their defense gave up 37 points and 449 yards to the Ravens last week. The Commanders are coming off their bye week and should have some new wrinkles on offense to give this mediocre Rams defense some troubles. Rookie QB Sam Howell ranks 5th in the NFL in passing yards with 3,449 yards this season. He has ample weapons outside to get the ball to, and he's a dual-threat who averages 6.1 yards per attempt and has 5 rushing touchdowns this season. He is also a turnover machine. This offense is pretty much fully healthy heading into this game and will have to go up-tempo in the 2H to try and keep up with the Rams, who will name their number. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-16-23 | Vikings v. Bengals OVER 39 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 92 h 27 m | Show | |
15* Vikings/Bengals NFL Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 39 The Cincinnati Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team right now. They have a terrible defense that has allowed 30 or more points in three of their last five games overall. They also allowed over 400 yards to the Steelers in one of the two games they didn't. They allow 379 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season. The offense hasn't missed a beat with Jake Browning at quarterback the last two weeks plus the emergence of Chase Brown in the backfield. Ja'Marr Chase has been balling out for Browning, and having a healthy Tee Higgins back in the lineup has helped as well. Browning is completing 76% of his passes for 924 yards with a 5-to-2 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.1 per attempt. He went 32-of-37 passing for 354 yards against the Jaguars and 18-of-24 passing for 275 yards against the Colts in his last two games as the full-time starter. The Vikings are making the switch to Nick Mullens at QB after the Josh Dobbs experiment did not work. He was dreadful against the Bears and Raiders the last two weeks. Mullens is a better fit for Kevin O'Connell's offensive system and will stand in the pocket and make the right throws. He should be sharp with a full week to prepare to be the starter. Mullens got good news on the injury front with WR Justin Jefferson expected to play. He returned last week and got injured early against the Raiders. I also think this Vikings offense will benefit from taking a step down in class this week against this Bengals defense. The Vikings have played four straight good defenses in the Raiders, Bears, Broncos and Saints. At the same time, this Minnesota defense is getting a lot of credit for what they have done in recent weeks. But they have also benefited from an easy schedule of opposing offenses in the Raiders, Bears, Broncos and Saints the last four weeks as well. This is a big step up in class for them facing a Cincinnati offense that is humming right now. The forecast looks great for a game in Cincinnati in December as well. There are expected to be only 5 MPH winds with temps in the 50's. I do think this game has shootout written all over it too, and this total is very low for a game involving the Bengals right now. The OVER is 5-2 in Bengals last seven games overall and we've seen 42 or more combined points in six of those seven games. Zac Taylor is 8-1 OVER off a home win by 10 points or more as the coach of Cincinnati. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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12-11-23 | Titans v. Dolphins OVER 46.5 | Top | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 176 h 22 m | Show |
20* MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Titans/Dolphins OVER 46.5 Miami averages 32.0 points per game, 428.4 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play this season as the top offense in the league. They have managed to stay remarkably healthy at receiver and QB, and they just got their explosive RB in Achane back from a knee injury last week. He averages 9.5 yards per carry with 534 rushing yards and 7 TD, while also catching 13 balls for 101 yards and another 2 TD. He and Mostert form one of the best 1-2 punches in the NFL, and they are in line for big games in this one. The Dolphins have an improving defense with Jalen Ramsey returning from injury, but unfortunately they lost another key cog two weeks ago in pass-rusher Jaelan Phillips late in their 34-13 road win over the Jets. They also potentially lost fellow LB Jerome Baker to a knee injury in their 45-15 win over the Commanders last week. They are getting short on pass rushers. The Titans are coming off a 31-28 (OT) shootout loss to the Colts last week. They did enough on offense to win that game with 381 total yards. Unfortunately their defense and special teams let them down, and they lost their punter to injury after having his 2nd punt blocked. They also lost Derrick Henry, but he cleared concussion protocol and there's a good chance he plays this week. But the big loss is DT Jeffery Simmons, who suffered a knee injury last week and is now out for this game. Simmons is one of the best DT in the entire NFL and one of the most underrated as well. The Dolphins are going to be able to name their number against this putrid Tennessee defense that allows 67.3% completions and 7.1 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks. They gave up 31 points and 300 passing yards to the Colts last week. They gave up 34 points in their previous road game to the Jaguars. And now they will be up against the best offense they have faced all season this week. I think Will Levis can do enough to keep the Titans coming back and help cash this OVER ticket. Levis is one of the top deep ball throwers in the NFL right now and has found a good connection with DeAndre Hopkins. He also has a weapon in Tyjae Spears out of the backfield and is forming chemistry with Chigoziem Okonkwo, who had 3 receptions for 62 yards against the Colts last week. Miami and its opponents have combined for at least 47 points in nine of its 12 games this season. The only exceptions were against three teams with bad offenses and good defenses in the Patriots, Chiefs and Raiders. The Titans don't meet the criteria of a good defense, especially after trading away S Kevin Byard and now losing DT Jeffery Simmons to injury. Plays on the OVER on any team (Tennessee) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival in the 2nd half of the season are 29-7 (80.6%) over the last five seasons. Teams in this situation off a 7-point loss or less are 41-15 (73.2%) to the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
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12-10-23 | Lions v. Bears OVER 43.5 | 13-28 | Loss | -110 | 161 h 9 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Lions/Bears OVER 43.5 The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall with 79, 57, 51 and 61 combined points. This is a very low total for a game involving the Lions. I get there is expected to be some weather, but I still like the OVER in this one. Justin Fields has been playing some great football since returning from injury and is a different QB right now. He is using his legs well as the Bears have rushed for an average of 147.5 yards per game in their last four games. They average 138 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry this season. The Bears are going to be able to move the football at will on a Detroit defense that is one of the worst in the NFL right now. The Lions allowed 38 points to the Chargers, 26 to the Bears, 29 to the Packers and 28 to the Saints in their last four games. They have allowed an average of 30.3 points per game in their last four games overall. It will be tough for the Bears to tame this Detroit offense for four quarters. The Lions are loaded with weapons and a good rushing attack. They average 27.3 points per game, 400.6 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season. The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 57, 61 and 61 combined points. Detroit is 6-0 OVER in its last six games off a win by 6 points or less. The Lions are 7-1 OVER off a win this season. Detroit is 6-0 OVER in its last six games vs. teams that allow 235 or more passing yards per game. These four trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-10-23 | Bucs v. Falcons OVER 39 | Top | 29-25 | Win | 100 | 98 h 24 m | Show |
20* NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bucs/Falcons OVER 39 The first meeting between the Bucs and Falcons this season saw just 29 combined points in a 16-13 road victory by the Falcons. The score from that first meeting is providing us some line value to go OVER the total in the 2nd meeting here with a total below the key number of 40. That first meeting should have seen nearly 50 combined points. Desmond Ridder fumbled three times when the Falcons were in scoring position, including twice at the Tampa Bay 1-yard line. That's a minimum of 17 extra points they should have had but didn't get. The Bucs also had two turnovers and red zone struggles. These teams combined for 730 total yards with the Falcons with 401 and the Bucs with 329. Both teams moved the ball with plenty of ease in that contest. The difference in the rematch is now this is going to be on a fast track inside the dome in Atlanta. Looking back at this head-to-head history, it's easy to see there's value with the OVER when looking at previous games played in Atlanta. In fact, the Bucs and Falcons have combined for 43 or more points in 10 consecutive meetings in Atlanta, including 47 or more in nine of those 10. They have averaged 54.8 combined points per game in those 10 games, which is more than 15 points higher than this total. They have combined for 39 or more points in 13 consecutive meetings in Atlanta as well, making for a 12-0-1 system backing this OVER pertaining to this 39-point total. More key differences in the rematch are that both defenses are banged up and missing key players. The Falcons lost their most important defender in DT Grady Jarrett to a torn ACL. Last week they lost their top CB AJ Terrell to a concussion, and it's unlikely he'll be able to clear protocols in time for this one. That's bad news for the Falcons not having him against Tampa Bay star WR Mike Evans, who just topped 1,000 yards receiving for the 10th consecutive season last week. Only Jerry Rice has more with 11. Starting MLB Nate Landman and starting NT David Onyemata are both questionable as well. The Bucs have all kinds of injuries at linebacker. They were without five linebackers by the end of their game against the Panthers last week. Lavonte David may return this week, but they are thin at the position. NT Vita Vea missed practice on Wednesday with a foot injury, and their top CB in Jamel Dean remains out. What was previously a great Tampa Bay run defense now has shown some holes the last two weeks. The Colts rushed for 155 yards on them and the Panthers rushed for 133 on them the last two games. Now they have to try and tame one of the best rushing attack in the NFL in the Falcons, who average 135 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry this season. I think Atlanta's low-scoring game with the Jets last week is keeping this total lower than it should be. That game was played outdoors and the Falcons were just trying not to make mistakes because they knew the Jets couldn't move the football on them with Tim Boyle at QB. It has bene a different story at home for the Falcons this season. The Falcons average 23.0 points per game, 380.3 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play at home on the fast track. They also allow 20.5 points per game at home, averaging 43.5 combined points per game in their six home games this season. The Bucs allow 23.8 points per game, 383.8 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play on the road this season. Their offense has been better on the road, averaging 22.5 points per game away from home. Tampa Bay road games are averaging 46.3 combined points per game this season. Given all the defensive injuries for both teams and all these numbers, this 39-point total is clearly too low this weekend. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-03-23 | Broncos v. Texans OVER 45 | 17-22 | Loss | -110 | 148 h 37 m | Show | |
15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Broncos/Texans OVER 45 It has taken a couple miracles to keep the last two Houston games under the total. I know because I've been on the over in both of them, and both losses were bad beats. I think there's value in the OVER in a Houston game this week as a result. Houston and Arizona scored 31 combined points in the 1st half two weeks ago. But they only had 6 points after halftime due to CJ Stroud throwing three interceptions inside the Arizona 25-yard line, and the Cardinals turning it over on downs three times in Arizona territory. Last week, Houston and Jacksonville combined for over 800 yards of offense. But there were three missed FG's and the Jaguars were stopped at the 1-yard line to finish on 45 combined points and under the closing 48-point total. I have to think Houston is going to start cashing in more scoring opportunities, and Denver will get their fair share of points this week as well. CJ Stroud and this Houston offense are humming right now. The Texans average 375 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season behind a passing game that averages 276 passing yards per game. Stroud is completing 63.7% of his passes for 3,266 yards with a 19-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.4 per attempt. He is loaded with receivers on the outside, and both Tank Dell and Noah Brown returned to practice on Thursday. They haven't had each of their top four receivers available since Week 1, making what Stroud has done even more impressive. They should have all four this week. Russell Wilson is clearly more comfortable in Sean Payton's offense now than he was at the beginning of the season. The Broncos have scored at least 21 points in four consecutive games and an average of 24.5 points per game during this stretch despite facing four good defenses in the Chiefs, Bills, Vikings and Browns. This Houston defense that ha s allowed at least 24 points in three of their last four is actually a big step down in competition for Wilson and company. But the Texans will get their points, and Wilson will be forced to try to keep up in a shootout in perfect conditions inside the dome in Houston. I don't think this Denver defense is as good as it is getting credit for. The Broncos have benefited from forcing a total of 16 turnovers during their five-game winning streak. But the season-long stats show this is one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Broncos allow 25.5 points per game, 388.3 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season, with the latter two numbers being the worst marks in the league. Plays on the OVER on any team (Houston) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent in the 2nd half of the season are 29-6 (82.9%) over the last five seasons. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-03-23 | Dolphins v. Commanders OVER 49 | 45-15 | Win | 100 | 91 h 42 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dolphins/Commanders OVER 49 The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team. They probably currently have the worst defense in the NFL after trading away two of their best defensive linemen in Sweat to the Bears and Young to the 49ers. They also have a ton of injuries in the secondary that are making them dreadful on that end right now. Indeed, the Commanders have allowed 29 points and 489 yards to the Seahawks, 31 points to Tommy DeVito and the Giants and 45 points and 431 yards to the Cowboys in their last three games coming in. It's safe to say this No. 1 ranked Miami offense is going to hang a big number on them this week. Miami averages 30.8 points per game, 430.5 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play this season as the top offense in the league. They have managed to stay remarkably healthy at receiver and QB, and now they get their explosive RB in Achane back from a knee injury this week. He averages 11.8 yards per carry with 461 yards and 5 TD. He and Mostert form one of the best 1-2 punches in the NFL, and they are in line for big games in this one. The Dolphins have an improving defense with Jalen Ramsey returning from injury, but unfortunately they lost another key cog last week in pass-rusher Jaelan Phillips late in their 34-13 road win over the Jets. Sam Howell has been one of the most impressive rookies in the NFL for Washington and actually leads the league in passing yards. Howell has thrown 18 touchdowns against 13 interceptions this season while completing 67% of his passes and averaging 278.3 passing yards per game. He has also rushed for 222 yards and three TD while averaging 6.2 per carry. He is a walking turnover though, so expect some easy scores by the Dolphins due to those turnovers. But Howell will keep coming, and that's what you need when backing an OVER is the trailing team capable of scoring quickly in comeback mode. We have that here on both sides. Miami is 9-2 OVER in its last 11 road games vs. poor pass defenses that allow 61% or higher completions. Mike McDaniel is 6-0 OVER in road games vs. good rushing teams averaging 4.5 or more yards per carry as the coach of the Dolphins. Ron Rivera is 30-12 OVER vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 6-plus points per game as a head coach. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-03-23 | Lions v. Saints OVER 44.5 | Top | 33-28 | Win | 100 | 160 h 53 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lions/Saints OVER 44.5 The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team right now. They have one of the best offenses in the NFL and a very leaky defense. This is a very low total for a game involving the Lions, so I jumped on this OVER 44.5 early in the week when the lines came out. In their last four games the Lions scored 26 points and had 486 total yards against the Raiders, scored 41 points and had 533 yards against the Chargers, scored 31 points and had 338 yards against the Bears and scored 22 points and had 464 yards against the Packers. They are pretty much fully healthy on offense and showing how good they can be when that's the case. But the Lions have been a disaster on defense over the last three weeks. They have allowed 31.0 points per game, 377.3 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play despite facing the Bears, Packers and Chargers, so it's not like they have faced any elite offenses. They lost LB Alex Anzalone against the Packers and he is doubtful to play Sunday. Even the New Orleans Saints are going to hang a big number on the Lions this week. Injuries have really decimated this New Orleans defense. They were already without their top CB in Marshon Lattimore, then they lost DE Cameron Jordan last week against the Falcons and he is their best defensive lineman. Jordan is very questionable to play in this game after not practicing all week. S Marcus Maye and LB Pete Werner have both been ruled out as well. The Saints allowed 27 points and 388 total yards to a mediocre Vikings offense and 24 points and 396 total yards to a mediocre Falcons offense in their last two games. They have now allowed at least 24 points in four of their last five games overall with the lone exception coming against the Bears, who turned it over five times or would have scored more. The OVER is 6-2 in Detroit's last eight games overall with 44 or more combined points in six of hose eight games. The OVER is 3-2 in Saints last five games overall with at least 39 combined points in all five, and 46 or more combined points in three of the five. It will be perfect conditions for a shootout inside the dome in New Orleans. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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11-26-23 | Jaguars v. Texans OVER 45.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 161 h 55 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Texans OVER 45.5 The Houston Texans are a dead nuts OVER team. CJ Stroud is one of the best rookie QB's we've ever seen and he's living up to it week after week. Let's look at their last three weeks. They scored 39 points and had 496 total yards against the Bucs, scored 30 points and had 544 total yards against the Bengals and then they had 419 total yards against the Cardinals last week and would have scored more if not for 3 INT from Stroud inside the Arizona 25-yard line. But because that game stayed under the total against the Cardinals when it should have gone way over after 31 combined points at halftime, we are getting great value with the OVER this week against the Jaguars. Not one of those passes by Stroud that were intercepted were bad throws, they were mostly just bad breaks off receivers' hands. He had only thrown 2 INT all season up to that point. RB Devin Singletary has rushed for over 100 yards in consecutive games for the first time in his career. This Houston offense is humming. The Jaguars just put together their best offensive performance of the season last week against a very good Tennessee defense. They had 34 points and 389 total yards as Trevor Lawrence totaled four touchdowns passing and rushing. The Jaguars are primed for one of their best offensive outputs of the season against a Houston defense that gave up 37 points to a bad Bucs offense and 27 points to the Bengals. The Texans are pretty banged up defensively right now. In their first meeting this season. Houston beat Jacksonville 37-17 for 54 combined points that easily topped this 45.5-point total. The Texans had 366 total yards and took their foot off the gas in the 2H with it wrapped up. The Jaguars had 404 total yards and deserved to score more than they did. They will have similar success moving the football in the rematch. Doug Pederson is 9-1 OVER in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better as a head coach. I love the OVER in this matchup of two teams that are hitting their stride on offense right now. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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11-23-23 | Commanders v. Cowboys OVER 46 | Top | 10-45 | Win | 100 | 93 h 44 m | Show |
20* Commanders/Cowboys NFC Afternoon FEAST on OVER 46 The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team right now. They are very pass-happy and up-tempo on offense and they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. That's an OVER bettors' dream in the NFL, and we'll play this game accordingly. The Commanders are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall, and their game against the Patriots that stayed under should have went over. They had 37 combined points with a total of 40.5 with 1:52 remaining in the 3rd quarter. Neither team scored again. The Commanders lost 31-38 to Philadelphia for 69 combined points. They had 472 total yards against the Eagles. They had 432 total yards against the Patriots. The lost to the Seahawks 29-26 for 55 combined points and gave up 489 total yards to the Seahawks. Then last week they lost 31-19 to the Giants for 50 combined points. That's Tommy Devito and the Giants, who they allowed 31 points to. But they also had 403 total yards in the loss and probably should have scored a lot more if they didn't turn it over six times. The Cowboys are rolling offensively. In their last four games, they had 43 points against the Rams, 406 total yards against the Eagles, 49 points against the Giants and 33 points against the Panthers. They will hang another big number on what is arguably the worst defense in the NFL in the Commanders in their current form. Their defense has struggled when they have actually been tested. They gave up 42 points and 421 total yards to the 49ers and 28 points to the Eagles. They will get tested by Sam Howell and this underrated Washington offense. Ron Rivera is 20-2 OVER as a road underdog of 7 points or more as a head coach. Rivera is 11-1 OVER as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points as a head coach. Rivera is 9-0 OVER in road games after losing six or seven of his last eight games as a head coach. Rivera is 8-0 OVER in road games vs. elite offensive teams that score 29 points or more as a head coach. Mike McCarthy is 7-0 OVER in home games vs. a team with a losing record in the second half of the season as the head coach of Dallas. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. |
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11-23-23 | Packers v. Lions OVER 44.5 | Top | 29-22 | Win | 100 | 89 h 44 m | Show |
20* Packers/Lions NFC Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 44.5 The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team. They have one of the best offenses in the NFL averaging 27.2 points per game, 399.6 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. They have combined for 77 points with the Chargers and 57 points with the Bears in their last two games coming in. This 44.5-point total is a very low total for a game involving the Lions. The Lions are showing how scary good they can be offensively when healthy in recent weeks. They put up 26 points and 486 total yards on the Raiders, 41 points and 533 total yards on the Chargers and 31 points on an improving Bears defense the last three weeks. But their defense has shown a lot of holes lately. They allowed 38 points and 421 total yards to the Chargers and 26 points and 334 total yards to the Bears. The Packers are showing signs of life on offense in recent weeks. They had 391 total yards against the Rams, 399 total yards against the Steelers and 397 total yards against the Chargers in their last three games. They can get things going against this Detroit defense again, and their defense has been far from spectacular. The Chargers should have scored a lot more points on them last week than they did, but they had a ton of drops. They should have scored 30-plus points on the Packers. Detroit beat Green Bay 34-20 in the first meeting this season for 54 combined points. That game was in Green Bay outdoors in tougher conditions. This game will be indoors, and both offenses will thrive in the dome in Detroit. The Packers are likely losing their most important defender in De'Vondre Campbell for this one. They could also be without Jaire Alexander. Detroit is 6-0 OVER in its last six games following a win by 6 points or less. Jordan Love is going to have to throw the ball a ton to try and keep up with this Detroit offense that is scoring 30.0 points per game at home this season. They'll likely have to abandon the run early in this one. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. |
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11-19-23 | Bears v. Lions OVER 46 | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 148 h 4 m | Show | |
15* NFC TOTAL OF THE DAY on Bears/Lions OVER 46 The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team when playing in a controlled environment like their dome and on turf. They are scoring 26.8 points per game and averaging 406.4 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play as one of the top offenses in the NFL. They are going to hang a big number on the Chicago Bears to lead the way in cashing this OVER. We saw what this Detroit offense could do when fully healthy at the skill positions last week as they hung 41 points and 533 total yards on the Chargers. But they were life and death with the Chargers because their defense couldn't get a stop, allowing 38 points in a game that saw 77 combined points last week. The Bears will have success against their defense as well. Chicago gets Justin Fields back at QB this week and he's a dead nuts OVER QB. They could also have RB Khalil Herbert back this week, tho D'Onta Foreman has been just fine in his place. They have been without Fields for the past 4.5 games and their offense has struggled without him. Prior to that, they scored 40 points and hung 451 total yards on the Commanders after scoring 28 points with 471 yards against the Broncos the game prior. This was a very high-scoring series last year with the Bears and Lions combining for 61 and 51 points in their two meetings. It will be more of the same in this one. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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11-19-23 | Raiders v. Dolphins OVER 47.5 | 13-20 | Loss | -110 | 148 h 4 m | Show | |
15* AFC TOTAL OF THE DAY on Raiders/Dolphins OVER 47.5 The Miami Dolphins have the best offense in the NFL. They are averaging 31.7 points per game, 435.3 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play this season. The OVER is 3-1 in Dolphins four home games this season with all four seeing 47 or more combined points, and that even includes games against three of the worst offenses in the NFL in the Giants, Panthers and Patriots. Miami home games are averaging 62.0 combined points per game this season. The Dolphins are going to hang a big number on the Raiders today to lead the way to us cashing the OVER. Aiden O'Connell seems like an OVER QB for the Raiders much more so than Jimmy G and Brian Hoyer. O'Connell is more of a gunslinger and he will be unleashed in this game Sunday. He won't have the benefit of trying to protect a lead like he has the last two weeks. The Raiders played the Giants and Tommy DeVito and the Jets and Zach Wilson the last two weeks. The last time they played a legit offense was the game prior when they gave up 486 total yards to the Lions. They will have to play hurry-up on offense this week to try and keep up with the Dolphins while trailing. I think they can score enough points to help contribute to us cashing this OVER, plus O'Connell is going to make some mistakes and set up short fields and easy scoring opportunities for the Dolphins as well. Miami is 10-2 OVER in its last 12 games after going under the total in its previous game. This is a very low total for a game involving the Dolphins. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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11-19-23 | Cardinals v. Texans OVER 46.5 | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -110 | 162 h 30 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cardinals/Texans OVER 46.5 The Houston Texans are a dead nuts OVER team right now. They went for 76 combined points two weeks ago with the Tampa Bay Bucs and 57 combined points with the Cincinnati Bengals last week. Their offense has done the heavy lifting as they have won both of those games while putting up gaudy offensive numbers. The Texans put up 496 total yards on a very good Tampa Bay defense and 544 total yards on Cincinnati's defense last week. CJ Stroud is having one of the best rookie seasons we've ever seen. He is completing 62% of his passes with a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. The Texans have shifted offensive philosophy and let Stroud throw the ball downfield a lot more the last two weeks, and it has produced tremendous results. It's not going to stop now. I was impressed with how well Kyler Murray played in his first game action in a year last week. He led the Cardinals to 352 total yards and 25 points against the Falcons in a last-second win last week. Murray had a key scramble for a first down on 3rd and 10 on that game-winning drive that shows he's not scared to run. He is much more dynamic when that's the case. Both of these defenses leave a lot to be desired. The Cardinals are giving up 26.3 points per game while the Texans are allowing 21.3 points per game. The Texans in particular have a ton of injuries on defense right now which is forcing them to win shootouts. I mean they gave up 37 points to Baker Mayfield and the Bucs in their last home game, which is all you need to know about the state of their defense. Arizona has allowed at least 20 points in seven consecutive games. Conditions will be perfect for a shootout inside the dome at NRG Stadium in Houston. I like backing OVERS in non-conference games because these teams just aren't familiar with one another, and it's hard to prepare for one another in a week's time. Stroud and Murray are in line for a shootout Sunday afternoon. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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11-09-23 | Panthers v. Bears UNDER 40.5 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 80 h 53 m | Show | |
15* Panthers/Bears NFC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 40.5 The Carolina Panthers have one of the worst offenses in the NFL. They rank 26th in scoring at 17.5 points per game, 28th in total offense at 283.4 yards per game and 32nd at 4.5 yards per play. They aren't going to be able to score much on this improving Chicago Bears defense. The Bears have gotten healthy on defense and have quietly allowed just 21.2 points per game in their last five games. They held the Saints to 301 total yards last week in a fraudulent final as they were -5 in turnovers in a 24-17 loss. Their defense single-handedly kept them in that game as their offense turned it over in their own territory time and time again. The Bears have scored 13, 13 and 17 points in three of their four games with Tyson Bagent at quarterback. He is likely to get the start again Thursday. He'll be up against an underrated Carolina defense that ranks 8th in total defense at 310.0 yards per game. The Panthers held the Colts to just 208 total yards last week after holding the Texans to just 229 total yards the week prior. Those are two offenses that were tearing it up previously to facing Carolina. Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is 35.5 to 42 points (Carolina) - after losing six or seven of their last eight games, when playing on Thursday night are 21-3 (87.5%) since 1983. Primetime UNDERS have been absolutely money this season. They are 22-7 this season and 62-29 over the last two seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. |
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11-05-23 | Bills v. Bengals OVER 48 | Top | 18-24 | Loss | -113 | 153 h 16 m | Show |
20* Bills/Bengals NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 48 The Buffalo Bills are without three of their best defenders in DT DaQuon Jones, LB Matt Milano and CB Tre'Davious White. Their defense has taken a huge step back since losing those top three guys against Jacksonville in London. The Bills gave up 474 total yards to the Jaguars in that loss in London. They were fortunate to escape with a win over the Giants who failed twice from the 1-yard line and gained 317 total yards in that game with Tyrod Taylor at QB and without nearly their entire offensive line. And then a previously dormant New England offense put up 29 points and 357 total yards on the Bills. The Bills were decent against the Bucs last week holding them to 18 points and 302 total yards. But this is a big step up in class now for this Buffalo defense, which will get exposed like they did against Jacksonville. After facing Tyrod Taylor, Mac Jones and Baker Mayfield, now the Bills have to face Joe Burrow and this surging Cincinnati offense. The Bengals put up 34 points against the Cardinals three weeks ago, were held to 17 points by the Seahawks two weeks ago in tough windy conditions, but then busted out again for 31 points and 400 total yards on the San Francisco 49ers last week. Joe Burrow is back to playing at an MVP level with his calf injury clearly behind him. He is completing 78% of his passes with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio over the last three games. The offense is basically fully healthy right now. Burrow and the Bengals lit up the Bills for 27 points and 412 total yards in the playoffs last year to knock them out. Josh Allen and this Buffalo offense are going to have to try and keep pace with the opposition with their leaky defense. I think Allen and company can match Burrow and the Bengals score for score in this one. This Cincinnati defense has taken a big step back this year. And they just lost their best defensive lineman in DE Trey Hendrickson to an ankle injury last week. The Bengals are allowing 370 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season. They gave up 460 yards against hte 49ers last week in a misleading win. They also gave up 381 total yards to the Seahawks the previous week in a misleading win. They've done a good job of stopping opponents in the red zone to keep them off the scoreboard, but now they face a Buffalo offense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in red zone TD percentage at 69%. The Bills will capitalize on their opportunities. They score 27.8 points per game, average 377 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season. The weather forecast looks good for a shootout in Cincinnati Sunday night with temps in the 50's and only 3 MPH winds. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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11-05-23 | Giants v. Raiders OVER 37 | 6-30 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 24 m | Show | |
15* Giants/Raiders Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 37 The New York Giants have gone under the total in six consecutive games. The Las Vegas Raiders have gone under the total in five of their last six games. This is a great 'buy low' opportunity to back an OVER between these teams as a result this week. There's several reasons to believe that both these offense will have success this week. The Raiders wipe the slate clean by firing head coach Josh McDaniels and their GM. They will be turning to rookie QB Aidan O'Connell the rest of the way. He was great in the preseason and got his feet wet against the Chargers. I expect the Raiders to open up the playbook and let him do what he does best, which is sit back in the shot gun and sling it around the yard. O'Connell certainly is no downgrade from Jimmy G or Brian Hoyer as this Raiders offense was lifeless with those two prior. He'll be up against a Giants defense that ranks 28th in the NFL allowing 5.6 yards per play. On the Giants side of things, they are expected to get back QB Daniel Jones this week. He is an upgrade over Tyrod Tayor, who started the last three games for the Giants in lackluster offensive performances. The offensive line is getting healthier, and now Saquon Barkley is back to carrying a full workload. This Giants offense is in line for one of their biggest performances of the season. This Raiders defense allowed 30 points to the Bears two weeks ago and 26 points and 486 total yards to the Lions last week. The defense was on the field for most of that game Monday night, and now they will be gassed coming into this game on a short week. Plus, the Raiders have injuries up and down their defense that are going to make things much easier for this Giants offense. New York just traded away Leonard Williams, one of their best defensive linemen. They won't be as stout on that side of the ball without him. I love backing OVERS in non-conference games because teams aren't familiar with one another and thus harder to prepare for, which favors the offenses. That's especially the case this week with both of these teams starting new quarterbacks. I also like backing OVERS between two bad teams because there tends to be more of a care-free attitude, which also favors offense. The Giants have played in three straight bad weather games, which is a big reason each of their last three games stayed under the total. But the few times they have played in good weather games, they have easily topped this 37-point total. They went for 59 combined points at Arizona in a dome, 42 combined points at San Francisco and 47 combined points at Miami. This will be another dome game in Las Vegas, which also favors the OVER. The Raiders would be 6-1 to the OVER with a total of 37 or less in their last seven games, combining with their opponents for 38-plus points in six of those seven. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-26-23 | Bucs v. Bills OVER 43 | Top | 18-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
20* Bucs/Bills Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 43 The Buffalo Bills are without three of their best defenders in DT DaQuon Jones, LB Matt Milano and CB Tre'Davious White. They are also without LB Braylon Spector, and DT Ed Oliver is questionable. Their defense has taken a huge step back since losing those top three guys in that Jacksonville game three weeks ago. The Bills gave up 474 total yards to the Jaguars in that loss in London. They were fortunate to escape with a win over the Giants who failed twice from the 1-yard line and gained 317 total yards in that game with Tyrod Taylor at QB and without nearly their entire offensive line. And then last week a previously dormant New England offense put up 29 points and 357 total yards on the Bills. Now a dormant Tampa Bay offense should get on track against this Buffalo defense. The Bucs are very healthy on offense and get RB Chase Edmonds back on the field. Baker Mayfield was a full participant in practice Thursday, as was WR Chris Godwin. Mayfield and company are in line for one of their biggest offensive outputs of the season here. The Bucs have a good defense, but they have faced a weak schedule of opposing offenses. They are going to be without S Kevon Merriweather after he was injured against the Falcons last week. They could be without their big run stuffer insider in Vita Vea, who is battling a groin injury and is questionable. What I know for certain is the Bills are going to be able to move the football and score points on this overrated Tampa Bay defense. The Bucs gave up 472 total yards to the Eagles, 380 total yards to the Lions and 401 total yards to the Falcons in three of their last four games coming in. The Falcons fumbled twice from the 1 and once from the 11 to basically take 14-21 points off the board last week and try to give the game away. The Bills will be able to move the football and hang a big number on this Tampa Bay defense. The Bills rank 2nd in the NFL in red zone TD percentage at 71.43%. Mayfield and this Tampa Bay offense are going to try and have to keep pace. The weather looks good for a shootout in Buffalo Thursday night with temps in the 60's, only a 4% chance of precipitation and single-digit winds. This is about as perfect as weather gets in Buffalo this time of year. Plays on the OVER involving road teams like Tampa Bay that have a poor offense averaging 14-18 PPG against a good defense (14-18 PPG), after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games are 70-29 (70.7%) since 1983. This total has been suppressed due to Tampa's poor offensive numbers to this point and Buffalo's misleading defensive numbers. Both of these defenses are vulnerable right now due to injury and that will show tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. |
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10-22-23 | Packers v. Broncos OVER 44.5 | Top | 17-19 | Loss | -110 | 114 h 39 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Packers/Broncos OVER 44.5 I love the spot for the Green Bay Packers this week. They are coming off their bye week following consecutive losses. They needed the bye week to regroup and get healthy. Now they come out of the bye as healthy as they have been all season. Jordan Love has been getting a ton of criticism, and most of it is deserved. However, Love has had his two best playmakers in Aaron Jones and Christian Watson on the field at the same time for a grand total of 11 snaps this season. Jones returns from a hamstring injury this week and should be 100% coming off the bye, and Watson is back to 100% as well. The Packers are in line for their best offensive output of the season since their 38-20 season-opening win at Chicago. The Bears and Broncos have been neck-and-neck for worst defense in the league honors this season. The Broncos take the take, allowing 33.3 points per game, 440 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play this season. The Broncos have at least been competent on offense this season scoring 21.5 points per game. They have scored at least 20 points in four of their last five games including 33 against Washington and 31 against Chicago. The OVER is 4-1 in Broncos last five games overall with 52 or more combined points in all four OVERS. The lone exception came against one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Chiefs, plus there was 20 MPH winds and tough playing conditions. The Broncos should hang a big number on the Packers as well. Green Bay is without its most important defender in LB De'Vondre Campbell. The Packers have also benefited from playing a very weak schedule of opposing offenses in the Bears, Falcons, Saints and Raiders. The only quality offense they faced they gave up 34 points and 401 total yards to the Lions. The forecast looks great for a shootout as well with temps in the 70's and only 8 MPH winds Sunday in Denver. Sean Payton is a dead nuts OVER head coach with great offenses but terrible defenses dating back to his time in New Orleans. Matt LaFleur is 8-1 OVER in road games after failing to cover the spread in two of his last three games as the coach of Green Bay. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-15-23 | Cardinals v. Rams OVER 47 | Top | 9-26 | Loss | -110 | 151 h 34 m | Show |
20* NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cardinals/Rams OVER 47 The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team. They have a putrid defense that allows 27.2 points per game, 375.6 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play. But their offense has been better than expected, averaging 21.6 points per game and 5.8 yards per play. The Rams also look like a dead nuts OVER team. They have been better than expected on offense even without Cooper Kupp, averaging 22.4 points per game this season against a brutal schedule of opposing defenses. They have faced the Seahawks, 49ers, Bengals, Colts and Eagles. Now Kupp is in his 2nd game back from injury against the worst defense the Rams will have faced this season, and they should hang a big number on the Cardinals here to lead the way in us cashing this OVER 47 ticket. The Rams haven't exactly been dominant defensively. They allowed 454 total yards to the Eagles last week. Their defense was on the field for nearly 40 minutes in that game. Also, Arizona's defense was on the field for nearly 40 minutes against the Bengals last week when they allowed 34 points. It's save to say both defenses are gassed coming into this one, which is only going to help these two offenses even more. The OVER is 4-0 in Rams last four games overall with 54, 51, 44 and 59 combined points. The OVER is 3-2 in the last five meetings with 44 or more combined points in four of the five. Plus, QB injuries were involved for both teams during this stretch. Having Stafford healthy and an underrated Dobbs for this one will make all the difference. Points will be plentiful in this one. Arizona is 13-3 OVER in its last 10 road games following two consecutive losses by 10 points or more. Plays on the OVER on road teams against the total (Arizona) - after allowing 375 or more yards in two consecutive games against an opponent that allowed 450 or more yards last game are 35-11 (76.1%) over the last 10 seasons. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-15-23 | Panthers v. Dolphins OVER 48 | Top | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 147 h 9 m | Show |
20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Panthers/Dolphins OVER 48 The Miami Dolphins have the best offense in the NFL. They are scoring 36.2 points per game, averaging 514 yards per game and 8.5 yards per play. Any total below 50 involving the Dolphins I'm going to be intrigued by the OVER. They are going to get 35-plus here against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are allowing 28.8 points per game this season and just gave up 42 points to the Lions last week. They have been decimated by injuries on defense with CB Jaycee Horn and LB Shaq Thompson out, plus LB Brian Burns, S Xavier Woods and DT Derrick Brown all being held out of practice on Thursday and doubtful at best. Bryce Young had one of his best games against the Lions last week leading the Panthers to 24 points and 342 total yards. I think he will progressively get better, and it was going to take some time for him to get used to Frank Reich's system. Young will be in line for one of his best games of the season against a poor Miami defense that allows 27.0 points per game this season. Carolina is 23-6 OVER in its last 29 road games after playing a game where 60 or more combined points were scored. The weather looks good with temps in the 80's, a 33% chance of rain and only 12 MPH winds that will be either at the offenses's back or into their faces. The Dolphins will do their part and continue scoring in the 2nd half of this one to lead the way. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-12-23 | Broncos v. Chiefs OVER 47 | 8-19 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
15* Broncos/Chiefs AFC Total DOMINATOR on OVER 47 The weather forecast has driven this total down from as high as 52 to below the key number of 48 and down to another key number of 47 tonight. There are expected to be 15-25 MPH winds, so the move down was expected, but it has gone too far. I think there's value on the OVER 47 here. Even if the Chiefs decide to keep the ball on the ground more, they are going to continue to score. They face the worst defense in the entire NFL in the Broncos, who allow 36.2 points per game, 451 yards per game and 7.2 yards per play. The Broncos allow 188 rushing yards per game and 5.9 per carry this season. The Broncos are much-improved on offense this season. They average 6.1 yards per play on offense, which is a Top 5 mark in the league. They also average 4.9 yards per carry on the ground, which is one of the best marks in the NFL. They are going to be able to run the football on this Kansas City defense, and Russell Wilson has ample healthy weapons outside this season. The Broncos and their opponents have combined for 68, 90, 59 and 52 points in their last four games overall. The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series with 51, 62 and 52 combined points. And two of those were with Denver's terrible offense and elite defense last year. It is opposite for the Broncos this season with a solid offense and the worst defense in the NFL. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. |
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10-08-23 | Bengals v. Cardinals OVER 44.5 | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 141 h 45 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR Bengals/Cardinals OVER 44.5 The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team. They scored 28 points on the Giants, 28 on the Cowboys and then 16 on the 49ers and it should have been 24 because they missed a 2-point conversion and had two drops in the end zone to end the game. They had no problem moving the football on both the 49ers and Cowboys, who have arguably the two best defenses in the NFL. Arizona has a hideous defense that allows 25.5 points per game, 374.5 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. We are 'buying low' on this Cincinnati Bengals offense, which has been the most disappointing offense in the league when compared to preseason expectations. I think a trip to Arizona inside a dome could be just what the doctor ordered for Joe Burrow and company to get on track. The Bengals have played four straight outdoor games to open the season against the Browns, Ravens, Rams and Titans. Three of those four teams have elite defenses while the Rams are decent, and the Bengals had some success against the Rams. Arizona has by far the worst defense the Bengals will have faced all season. This Cincinnati defense has been almost equally disappointing taking a big step back this season. The Bengals allow 23.5 points per game, 364.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. Josh Dobbs and James Conner are in line for a big game on the ground. The Bengals allow 157 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry. That will open things up for Dobbs down the field. Arizona averages 144 rushing yards per game, 5.3 yards per carry and 5.8 yards per play overall. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-08-23 | Giants v. Dolphins OVER 49.5 | Top | 16-31 | Loss | -110 | 138 h 57 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Giants/Dolphins OVER 49.5 I locked in this total on Monday prior to the Giants facing the Seahawks on Monday Night Football. I did it in anticipation that this total would get bet to 50 or above. But it has creeped back down largely due to the Giants being held to 3 points by the Seahawks. I would probably make it a 25* play at 47 or 47.5, which is currently where it's at as of this writing. So adjust your bets accordingly as this is one of the rare times I've gotten a worse line. I still think this total should be 51 or higher. The Miami Dolphins are a dead nuts OVER team. They have the most explosive offense in the NFL scoring 37.5 points per game, averaging 511 yards per game and 8.2 yards per play. Those numbers are absolutely ridiculous over a four-game sample size. They remain healthy on offense and can name their number on this Giants defense, which is allowing 30.5 points per game and 5.7 yards per play this season. The Giants have been woeful on offense this season, but they have also played a very tough schedule of opposing defenses. They have faced arguably the two best defenses in the NFL in the Cowboys and 49ers. They also faced a Seahawks team that got several key players back from injury on defense prior to their game and lived up to their potential. In their lone game against a bad defense, the Giants put up 31 points and 439 total yards on the Cardinals. The Dolphins may have a worse defense than the Cardinals. They allow 29.8 points per game, 374.5 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play. The Bills hung 48 points on them last week, and Daniel Jones is in line for another big game like he had against the Cardinals. The Giants had to go up-tempo in the 2nd half to come back from a 28-7 deficit to beat the Cardinals. They are going to have to go up-tempo against the Dolphins as well because I expect them to be trailing the entire time trying to keep pace. There's a chance the Giants get Saquon Barkley back this week as he returned to practice on a limited basis. But I like the OVER regardless of whether or not he plays. The forecast looks great for a shootout as well with temps in the 80's, only an 18% chance of precipitation and 7 MPH winds in Miami. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-08-23 | Jaguars v. Bills OVER 48 | 25-20 | Loss | -105 | 135 h 40 m | Show | |
15* Jaguars/Bills NFL London Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 48 The Buffalo Bills beat themselves in the opener with four turnovers in a 22-16 loss to the Jets. It was one of Josh Allen's worst games against a Jets defense that just has him figured out. Allen and this Buffalo offense have responded in a big way since. The Bills put up 38 points and 450 total yards on the Raiders in Week 2, 37 points and 386 total yards on the Commanders in Week 3 and 48 points and 414 total yards on the Dolphins in Week 4. They have averaged 41 points per game in their last three games. I think they can get to 30 points against Jacksonville to help pave the way to us cashing this OVER 48 ticket. The Jaguars are allowing 5.6 yards per play this season. The Bills have actually been one of the worst defenses in the NFL from a yards per play perspective, allowing 6.2 yards per play this season. I also think this Jacksonville offense will get on track this week. Reinforcements are on the way for the Jaguars. LT Cam Robinson is expected to return from his four-game suspension. WR Zay Jones has missed the past two games with a knee injury but returned to practice this week to give Trevor Lawrence another weapon. WR and return specialist Jamal Agnew sat out Week 4 with a quod injury and could return as well. The Jaguars jumped out to a 17-0 halftime lead on the Falcons last week and played vanilla offense in the second half to preserve the lead. They won't be able to be vanilla against this Buffalo offense as they will have to try and match them score for score. They get a banged-up Buffalo defense that just lost star CB Tre'Davious White to a season-ending Achilles injury last week. They also have CB Christian Benford, S Jordan Poyer, S Micah Hyde, DE Greg Rousseua, DE Leonard Floyd and LB Matt Milano all banged up on defense. LB Von Miller could make his season debut this week but it's unlikely. The weather looks great for Sunday in London with temps in the 70's, light winds and only a 10% chance of precipitation. I think we get a shootout here with these two talented offenses. Buffalo is 13-2 OVER in its last 15 games following three consecutive wins by 10 points or more. Jacksonville is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 road games vs. excellent teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game. Doug Pederson is 8-0 OVER In road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better as a head coach. Sean McDermott is 6-0 OVER following a win by 21 points or more over a division opponent as the coach of Buffalo. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-05-23 | Bears v. Commanders OVER 44.5 | Top | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 95 h 27 m | Show |
20* Bears/Commanders NFC No-Brainer on OVER 44.5 Two of the worst defenses in the NFL square off Thursday night when the Chicago Bears visit the Washington Commanders. The weather looks good for a shootout with temps in the 70's and only 5 MPH winds. These two defenses will make these two offenses look like two of the best in the NFL tonight. The Bears have lost 14 consecutive games while allowing at least 25 points in all 14 games for the first time in NFL history. The Bears came into the season with the least-talented defense in the NFL, and injuries have made them even worse. They are allowing 34.3 points per game and 6.2 yards per play this season. Washington has allowed at least 33 points in three consecutive games. The Commanders are allowing 30.0 points per game and 5.9 yards per play this season. Both defenses are tired as well as the Bears blew a 28-7 lead to the Broncos last week with their defense on the field the entire second half, and the Commanders going to OT with the Eagles. The effect is maximized with this being a short week on Thursday Night Football. Justin Fields is coming off his best game of the season and will be playing with a chip on his shoulder after blowing that lead to the Broncos last week. He led the Bears to 471 total yards. Fields went 28-of-35 passing for 335 yards with four touchdowns and two turnovers. His elusiveness will be huge against this Washington defensive line, which is the strength of their defense. Washington's secondary is not good. The Commanders have scored 31 and 35 points in two of their last three games coming in. Sam Howell went 29-of-41 for 290 yards with one touchdown and no picks against a very good Philadelphia defense last week. He is also elusive, rushing for 40 yards on six carries against the Eagles as well. He has been one of the better young quarterbacks in the league this season. The OVER is 12-3 in Bears last 15 games overall dating back to last season, including 4-0 this season. The Bears and their opponents have combined for at least 45 points in 13 of those 15 games. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. |
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10-02-23 | Seahawks v. Giants UNDER 48 | Top | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 122 h 39 m | Show |
20* Seahawks/Giants NFC No-Brainer on UNDER 48 Night game UNDERS are 148-97-3 (60.4%) since 2019. Night game UNDERS are 9-2 to start this season heading into Week 4. This total is too high for a game involving the New York Giants, who have a solid defense but a terrible offense, especially without their best offensive player in Saquon Barkley. The Giants were shut out in the opener by the Cowboys and managed just 171 total yards. You can throw out the Arizona game because Arizona's defense is terrible, and they had Barkley for the entire game. And last week they managed just 12 points and 150 total yards against the 49ers. Again, this total is too high for a game involving this Giants offense. No question the Seahawks have put up great offensive numbers the last two weeks against Detroit and Carolina, which is inflating this total. But both of those teams were missing key players defensively. They managed just 13 points and 180 total yards against the Rams in Week 1. This is a much better, hungrier Giants defense they will be up against Monday night. The Seahawks are better defensively than they have shown thus far. Being without both SS Jamal Adams and CB Riq Woolen is a big reason why they have struggled. Both are expected back this week, which is a huge help to the defense. Adams is the leader of this defense and hasn't played yet this year. Having him back will be a game changer for them. Also, taking a step down in class here against this Giants offense will help as well. These teams met last year with the Seahawks winning 27-13 for just 40 combined points. Pete Carroll is 15-5 UNDER after scoring 30 points or more in two consecutive games as the coach of Seattle. The Giants are 9-1 UNDER in their last 10 games as home underdogs. New York is 6-0 UNDER in its last six home games following an ATS loss. Seattle is 16-5 UNDER in its last 21 road games vs. poor offensive teams that average 4.75 or fewer yards per play. The UNDER is 16-4-2 in Giants last 22 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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10-01-23 | Cardinals v. 49ers OVER 44 | 16-35 | Win | 100 | 96 h 51 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Cardinals/49ers OVER 44 Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers are rolling on offense once again this season. They have scored at least 30 points in each of their first three games this season and I expect them to make it four straight against the lowly Arizona Cardinals to pave the way for us to cash this OVER 44 ticket. They are also averaging 399 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season and have been able to take their foot off the gas in the second half as well, or the numbers could be even better. I don't expect them to take the Cardinals lightly or take their foot off the gas this week. The 49ers have extra rest after playing last Thursday, and they just saw the Cardinals upset the Cowboys last week in a fluky result in which the Cowboys went 1-for-5 in the red zone. It was still good enough for me to cash my OVER 43 ticket in that game as the Cardinals won 28-16, but there should have been more points from the Cowboys. The Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team. They have a terrible defense that allowed 31 points to the Giants the week prior. The Giants were shut out by the Cowboys and managed just 12 points against the 49ers in their other two games just to show how bad this Arizona defense is. Dallas had 416 total yards on the Cardinals last week but only 16 points because of those red zone woes. While the 49ers will be able to name their number on this soft, banged-up Arizona defense, I do expect the Cardinals to be able to score some points on this San Francisco defense. This is an underrated Arizona offense that put up 28 points on the Giants and another 28 on the Cowboys the last two weeks. They also had 379 yards on the Giants and 400 yards on the Cowboys. Josh Dobbs is elusive and has good weapons, and this offensive line is playing well behind him, especially in the running game paving the way for 151 yards on the ground against the Giants and 222 yards on the ground against the Cowboys. The 49ers haven't had to face a very mobile QB yet as they faced Kenny Pickett, Matt Stafford and Daniel Jones, and they haven't faced a good rushing attack either, which has allowed them to pin their ears back and get after the QB. They will have to respect Arizona's running game, which should open things up for Dobbs in the passing game. The last three meetings in this series were all shootouts that topped this 44-point total. The 49ers won 38-13 for 51 combined points, 38-10 for 43 combined points and were upset 31-17 for 48 combined points in their first game against Arizona last year. But Brock Purdy didn't play in those first two games, and he threw 3 TD in the most recent meeting. Arizona started played David Blough/McSorley in the most recent meeting, Colt McCoy/McSorley in the second and McCoy in the first. So the 49ers haven't had to face a QB as good as Dobbs in any of their last three meetings with the Cardinals. I expect Arizona to get 14-plus in this one. These teams have combined for at least 44 points in six of the last eight meetings and it should be more of the same here in their first meeting of 2023. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-01-23 | Dolphins v. Bills OVER 53.5 | Top | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 95 h 17 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dolphins/Bills OVER 53.5 The Miami Dolphins are a dead nuts OVER team this season. They beat the Chargers 36-34 in the opener for 70 combined points. In Week 2 they beat the Patriots 24-17 in sloppy conditions in a slow-paced game. And last week they hung a 70-spot on the Broncos in a 70-20 victory for 90 combined points. They didn't even have Jaylen Waddle last week, and he is expected to return this week to give the Dolphins the best 1-2 punch in the league at receiver with him and Tyreke Hill. This is actually a pretty low total for a game involving the Dolphins. They have the best offense in the NFL and a bad defense. The Bills appear to have a good defense, but keep in mind they have played an easy schedule of opposing offenses and quarterbacks. They faced Zach Wilson and the Jets in Week 1, Jimmy G and the Raiders in Week 2 and Sam Howell and the Commanders in Week 3. This is a big step up in class for this Buffalo defense, which is missing Von Miller and will get exposed this week. S Jordan Poyer, S Micah Hyde and DE Leonard Floyd all missed practice Wednesday and are all questionable to play this week as well. The Bills aren't going to stop the Dolphins, but they can match them score for score with their potent offense. After being held in check in Week 1 by the Jets, who always have a good game plan for them, the Bills' true offensive colors have shown the past two weeks. They hung 38 points on the Raiders with 183 rushing and 267 passing yards, and last week they hung 37 points on the Commanders with 168 rushing and 218 passing. They finally appear to have a very good rushing attack this season to compliment Josh Allen and the passing game. The last two meetings in Buffalo were absolute shootouts. Buffalo won 32-29 in the regular season finale for 61 combined points and put up 446 total yards on the Dolphins, who came through with 405 themselves in a game started and finished by Tua. But Tua was hurt in the matchup in the playoffs, and it was still a shootout in a 34-31 victory by the Bills, who had 423 total yards on the Dolphins. They clearly have this Miami defense figured out as they went for 497 total yards on the Dolphins on the road last season as well. Conditions look perfect in Buffalo for a shootout Sunday afternoon with temps in the 70's and only 6 MPH winds at Highmark Stadium. Miami is 18-6 OVER in its last 24 road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 285 or fewer yards per game. Sean McDermott is 12-3 OVER in home games after allowing 150 or fewer passing yards last game as the coach of Buffalo. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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09-25-23 | Eagles v. Bucs OVER 45 | Top | 25-11 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 45 m | Show |
20* Eagles/Bucs NFC No-Brainer on OVER 45 The Philadelphia Eagles have one of the best offenses in the NFL again this season. They are scoring 29.5 points per game. They will get what they want against this Tampa Bay defense to lead the way in us cashing the OVER tonight. The Tampa Bay Bucs are improved on offense this season behind Baker Mayfield, who has more weapons now than he ever has in his career. Mayfield is a gun slinger who will make plenty of plays, but who is also susceptible to turnovers and easy scores for the Eagles. Mayfield will be up against a banged-up Philadelphia defense that is allowing 378.0 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play this season to the Patriots and Vikings. CB Maddox is out, LB Dean is out and DT Davis and DE Sweat are both questionable to play Monday. Several other players are playing through injury on defense. I think the Bucs are allowing 5.7 yards per play defensively this season. The Vikings should have scored more on them in them in the opener but turned it over three times. The Bucs also have injury concerns on defense with LB Dennis and DL Kancey out, plus LB White, DL Vea and CB Davis II all questionable. Both defenses are vulnerable with injuries and both offenses are healthy and thriving in the early going this season. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
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09-24-23 | Cowboys v. Cardinals OVER 43 | 16-28 | Win | 100 | 88 h 57 m | Show | |
15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Cowboys/Cardinals OVER 43 The Dallas Cowboys have scored at total of 70 points in their first two games for an average of 35.0 points per game. They have one of the best offenses in the NFL this season. I wouldn't be surprise to see them get to their season average again here against the Arizona Cardinals, who have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Cardinals made Daniel Jones look like Patrick Mahomes in the second half last week in their 31-28 loss to the Giants. They have injuries up and down their defense, and now they are a tired defense after being on the field so much in the second half last week. No question the Cowboys have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but they have played Jones and the Giants and Zach Wilson and a dead Jets offense without Aaron Rodgers. They just lost CB Travon Diggs to a torn ACL in practice this week. Josh Dobbs has been a pleasant surprise for this Arizona offense, which is better than it gets credit for. They put up 16 points on a very good Washington defense in Week 1, and then 28 points and 379 total yards against the Giants last week. I expect them to put up enough points on the Cowboys to help us cash this OVER ticket. Conditions will be perfect for a shootout inside the dome in Arizona. The Cowboys and Cardinals have combined for at least 45 points in four consecutive meetings and six of their last seven meetings. A big reason for that is because these games are always played indoors in perfect conditions. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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09-24-23 | Bears v. Chiefs OVER 47 | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 88 h 56 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Bears/Chiefs OVER 47 The Kansas City Chiefs played in the lowest-scoring game of the Week 2 with a 17-9 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. That game also had the highest total at 50.5. Because that game went so far under the total, we are now getting value with the OVER this week with this total against the Chicago Bears down to 47. This Kansas City offense has been held in check through two weeks. Injuries and turnovers hurt them in Week 1 against the Lions, and turnovers and red zone failures hurt them in Week 2 against the Jaguars. I think the Chiefs are looking to make a statement this week on offense, and I expect them to hang a big number on arguably the worst defense in the NFL in the Chicago Bears. The Bears allowed 38 points to the Packers in Week 1 and 27 points and 437 total yards to the Bucs in Week 2. Their defensive coordinator resigned, they already lack talent at every level defensively, and now they are missing a few of their best defensive players due to injury. What a mess. They are without CB Kyler Gordon and likely to be without S Eddie Jackson this week. The Chiefs are going to score 30-plus points on the Bears to bust out of their funk and help pave the way to us cashing this OVER ticket. The Bears should get to 17-plus against the Chiefs. They scored 20 on the Packers in the opener and 17 on the Bucs last week. But Justin Fields has been thinking too much and taking negative plays as a result. He has stated this week that he's going to get back to being himself and play on instincts, which is when he and the Bears are much better. That means he's going to run a lot more, and the Chiefs struggle against running quarterbacks. Look for Fields to play his best game of the season this week for the Bears, who are much healthier on offense than defense. Conditions in Kansas City look good for a shootout Sunday with the forecast calling for temps in the 70's, only a 26% chance of precipitation and only 8.5 MPH winds. This total has been suppressed due to Kansas City going under the total in their first two games this season. We'll take advantage of the value and back the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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09-24-23 | Texans v. Jaguars OVER 44 | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 85 h 32 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Texans/Jaguars OVER 44 The Jacksonville Jaguars played in the lowest-scoring game of the Week 2 with a 17-9 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. That game also had the highest total at 50.5. Because that game went so far under the total, we are now getting value with the OVER this week with this total against the Houston Texans down to 44. That game against the Chiefs was a bit of an aberration. Both teams struggled in the red zone and with turnovers. But the Jaguars will get back to being one of the top offenses in the NFL this week, which is what they looked like in Week 1 when they beat the Colts 31-21 for 51 combined points. There's simply too much talent on this offense to hold them down for long. Speaking of the Colts, the Texans just played them last week and lost 31-20 for 51 combined points. The Colts did whatever they wanted to on offense and jumped out to a huge lead before calling off the dogs. The Texans showed they could still move the football and score late, which is what I could see happening again here to help us cash this OVER. CJ Stroud threw for 384 yards and two touchdowns on the Colts last week and took a big step forward from Week 1 against the Ravens to that performance. He has some underrated targets on the outside in Collins, Dell and Woods, and he has a great running back in Damien Pierce. This Texans offense I think is underrated right now. The problem for Houston is all their injuries on defense right now. They could potentially be without four of their top five defensive backs. They have injuries at linebacker and on the defensive line as well. They have the longest injury list of any team in the NFL right now, and almost all of them are on defense. It looks as though they will get their best offensive linemen in Laremy Tunsil back from injury this week as well. Conditions in Jacksonville will be perfect for a shootout with temps in the 80's, a 5% chance of precipitation and only 6.5 MPH winds forecasted. I expect the Jaguars to score 30-plus in this one and the Texans to get 20-plus to easily cash this OVER 44 ticket. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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09-17-23 | Chiefs v. Jaguars OVER 50.5 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -110 | 158 h 6 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Chiefs/Jaguars OVER 50.5 You could make the argument that the Jaguars have the most explosive offense in the NFL now. They traded for Calvin Ridley in the offseason and he and Trevor Lawrence are already forming a great connection. They beat the Colts 31-21 in the opener on the road. Lawrence threw for 241 yards and a pair of touchdowns, one of which went to Ridley, who led the team with 11 receptions for 101 yards in the win. Then there's Zay Jones, Christian Kirk and Evan Engram that teams are going to have to account for, plus Travis Etienne in the backfield. As you already know, the Chiefs have one of the best offenses in the NFL with Patrick Mahomes and company. Drops hurt them in their Week 1 loss to the Lions, plus the fact that they didn't have their best playmakers in Travis Kelce. You can expect a much better offensive performance from the Chiefs in this one. The Chiefs didn't have much problem scoring points against the Jaguars last season. They put up 27 points in each of their two meetings. No question the Chiefs will get their points again, but I now think the Jaguars have the offense to keep up with them in a shootout with the addition of Ridley. Kansas City is 6-0 OVER in its last six road games played on a grass field, and we're seeing 65.5 combined points per game in this spot. Andy Reid is 11-3 OVER in road games following a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of Kansas City. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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09-17-23 | Ravens v. Bengals UNDER 46.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 109 h 0 m | Show |
20* Ravens/Bengals AFC North No-Brainer on UNDER 46.5 Joe Burrow didn't play a snap in the preseason and it showed as he clearly wasn't himself against the Cleveland Browns last week. Burrow went 14-of-31 for 82 yards while averaging 2.6 yards per attempt as the Bengals managed just 3 points against the Browns. I don't think it will magically be fixed in one week. The Ravens managed 25 points against the Houston Texans last week but that came on just 265 total yards. Lamar Jackson is learning a new offense and it's going to take some time. But the Ravens were great defensively limiting the Texans to 9 points and 268 total yards. Clearly both defenses are ahead of the offenses right now, and I expect that to be the case again Sunday. The Ravens are already decimated by injuries right now. RB JK Dobbins suffered a torn achilles in Week 1, and OT Ronnie Stanfley, C Tyler Linderbaum and TE Mark Andrews are all questionable to play in Week 2. Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. Well, this will be the 4th meeting between the Ravens and Bengals since Week 5 last year. The first meeting saw just 36 combined points, the second meeting saw just 43 combined points, and the 3rd meeting in the playoffs saw just 41 combined points. As you can see, all three meetings stayed well UNDER this 46.5-point total. It should be more of the same given the circumstances in Week 2 Sunday. Cincinnati is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine September games. Zac Taylor is 13-3 UNDER in September games as the coach of Cincinnati, so his teams tend to start slow offensively but have been on point defensively. Cincinnati is 12-3 UNDER in its last 15 games against AFC opponents. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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01-29-23 | Bengals v. Chiefs UNDER 48 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
20* Bengals/Chiefs AFC Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 48 Patrick Mahomes is hobbled and not himself. Travic Kelce is nursing a back injury and questionable. And the Cincinnati Bengals are missing three starters along the offensive line. All these offensive injuries to both teams have me liking the UNDER in the AFC Championship Game. Plus, temps will be around 20 at kickoff and only getting colder as the night progresses with double-digit MPH winds as well. Cincinnati has played four consecutive defensive battles and has one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL. Their last four games have seen 40, 43, 41 and 37 combined points. They have allowed 24 or fewer points in eight consecutive games, including 18 or fewer in six of those. They rode their defense to the Super Bowl last season and are doing it again this season. Maybe the bigger surprise is just how well Kansas City has played defensively down the stretch. They have allowed just 16.8 points per game in their last four games and 297.4 yards per game in their last five games. They haven't allowed 350 or more yards in any of their last six games. They will have a good game plan to slow down Joe Burrow and this Cincinnati offense in this rematch from a 24-27 road loss. Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. This will be the 4th meeting between the Chiefs and Bengals in the past two seasons. They know each other inside and out, and that favors the defenses more than the offenses. That's especially the case here since both defenses are very healthy while both offenses are banged up. The UNDER is 9-1 in Bengals last 10 playoff games. The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Bengals last 17 games vs. AFC opponents. The UNDER is 43-19-2 in Bengals last 64 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Kansas City. The UNDER is 6-1 in Chiefs last seven home games. Cincinnati is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 games as a road underdog. Kansa City is 6-0 UNDER after scoring 25 or more points in two consecutive games this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. FREE 6-Point Teaser: 49ers +8.5/Bengals +7.5 |
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01-21-23 | Jaguars v. Chiefs UNDER 53 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Chiefs UNDER 53 This total is way too high given how well both of these defenses have been playing down the stretch, especially the Chiefs. The improvement of this Kansas City defense has been flying under the radar. They have allowed just 17.8 points per game and 285 yards per game in their last four games overall. The Jaguars have allowed just 13 points per game and 284 yards per game in their last four games overall. That includes the 30 points they allowed to the Chargers last week, which was very fluky because it came with five turnovers from the Jaguars who gave the Chargers a ton of short fields en route to a 27-0 lead. That game saw 61 combined points with a big Jaguars comeback, but it shouldn't have since the Chargers only had 320 total yards while the Jaguars had 390 in comeback mode. That result has inflated this total this week. Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and this will be the 2nd meeting between the Chiefs and Jaguars at Arrowhead Stadium this season. The Chiefs won that first meeting 27-17 for just 44 combined points. The Jaguars were held to just 315 total yards in defeat. The Chiefs moved the ball well, but I expect the Jaguars to be much better defensively in the rematch. And Kansas City is good at sitting on the ball and milking clock with a lead, which is why they always tend to play in closer game because they quit scoring and let teams back in it. That makes them a great UNDER team. The UNDER is 6-2 in Chiefs eight home games this season with an average of just 44.5 combined points per game. The UNDER is 9-2 in Jaguars last 11 games after allowing 30 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings. The UNDER is 7-0 in Jaguars last seven games vs. good offensive teams that average 6 or more yards per play in the second half of the season. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
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01-14-23 | Seahawks v. 49ers UNDER 43 | Top | 23-41 | Loss | -110 | 113 h 55 m | Show |
20* Seahawks/49ers NFC No-Brainer on UNDER 43 There is a flood watch in Santa Clara on Saturday with a 100% chance of rain and 30-40 MPH winds in the morning. It is expected to clear out a little by game time, but it's likely going to be a sloppy field worst case. We don't need the weather help to cash this UNDER, but it's certainly a bonus. Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. This will be the 3rd meeting this season between these division rivals. The 49ers won 27-7 for 34 combined points in the first meeting. Seattle's only score came on a blocked FG return TD. The 49ers won 21-13 in the 2nd meeting for 34 combined points again. Seattle's lone TD came in garbage time trailing 21-6 with under four minutes to play. So this Seattle offense has only scored one TD in eight quarters against this elite 49ers defense this season, and it came in garbage time of a blowout. The 49ers rank 1st in scoring defense at 16.3 points per game, 1st in total defense at 300.6 yards per game and 4th at 5.0 yards per play. Nothing is going to come easy for Seattle, which has average just 246.5 yards per game in two meetings with the 49ers this season. Seattle's defense has been playing much better down the stretch. They have held their last four opponents to an average of just 16.8 points per game in their last four games, which is impressive when you consider they faced the 49ers and Chiefs during this stretch. They held the Chiefs to just 297 total yards, the Jets to 279 total yards and the Rams to 269 total yards in their last three games heading into the playoffs. But Seattle is scoring just 16.3 points per game in its last four games overall as well. Wild Card Round UNDERS are 27-11 dating back to 2012. The UNDER is 4-0 in Seahawks last four games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in 49ers last four playoff games. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. BONUS FREE NFL TEASERS: 7-Point Teaser: 49ers -2.5/Bengals -2.5 or better 6-Point Teaser: Jaguars +8.5/Bucs +8.5 |
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01-01-23 | Rams v. Chargers OVER 40.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 110 h 5 m | Show |
20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rams/Chargers OVER 40.5 The Los Angeles Chargers blew it in Week 18 last season against the Raiders with a chance to go to the playoffs with a win. Well, they don't have to worry about that any more as they just clinched a playoff spot over the Colts with a win on Monday Night Football. I think they will be playing loose and free in this game against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 17 and that favors their offense. This Chargers offense has been much better since getting Mike Williams and Keenan Allen back from injury. The Chargers have averaged over 370 yards per game in their last three games with these two. Williams has 14 receptions for 259 yards and a touchdown in his last three games since returning from injury, while Allen has 31 receptions for 282 yards in his last three games alongside Williams. The Rams have been playing loose and free since Baker Mayfield took over at quarterback. And now he has three games under his belt in Sean McVay's system and is clearly getting a lot more comfortable. That showed last week when the Rams hung 51 points and 388 total yards on a very good Denver defense. Mayfield had one of the most efficient games of his career, completing 24-of-28 passes for 230 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. The playbook will be even more open for him this week against the Chargers. The Rams also finally got their running game going last week with 158 yards to help out Mayfield. Well, the weakness of this Chargers defense is stopping the run. They rank 26th in allowing 140.5 rushing yards per game and 31st allowing 5.3 yards per carry. So Mayfield will not have to do it all. I know the Chargers have been better of late defensively, but they have also benefitted from facing a couple terrible offenses in the Colts and Titans the last two weeks. I think the fact that the Chargers have gone under the total in four consecutive games is keeping this total way lower than it should be. Those totals were all 45 or higher. Now this total is only 40.5, which is a big adjustment and way too big in my opinion. This total should be closer to 45, especially with the life this Rams offense has showed of late. And it's not like the Rams have been great defensively as they rank in the bottom half of the league in scoring defense and have allowed 24 or more points in five of their last seven games overall. Aaron Donald remains out for the Rams, and the Chargers have a ton of key injuries on defense as well. The OVER is 6-0 in Chargers last six games after a win by 10 points or more. The OVER is 6-0 in Rams last six games after a home win by 10 points or more. The OVER is 7-0 in Rams last seven road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings. These four trends combine for a 24-1 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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01-01-23 | Jets v. Seahawks OVER 41.5 | 6-23 | Loss | -110 | 110 h 45 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Jets/Seahawks OVER 41.5 Mike White makes his much anticipated return to the lineup for the New York Jets this week. This offense has been much more efficient with White under center than Zach Wilson or Joe Flacco. This total against the Seahawks is way too low given that White is playing and the forecast. It's expected to be 45 degrees with 2 MPH winds and only a 4% chance of precipitation in Seattle Sunday afternoon. The Seahawks are a dead nuts OVER team because they have a solid offense and a terrible defense. The Seahawks rank 9th in scoring offense at 24.3 points per game, 13th in total offense at 348.5 yards per game and 7th at 5.8 yards per play. This Seattle offense is expected to get Tyler Lockett back from injury this week, and RB Kenneth Walker should be good to go as well. White put up 31 points and 466 yards against the Bears and 22 points and 486 total yards against the Vikings in his two healthy starts this week. He will have a big game against this Seattle defense as well. The Seahawks rank 29th in scoring defense at 25.3 points per game, 29th in total defense at 373.4 yards per game and 24th at 5.7 yards per play allowed. No question the Jets have a good defense, but that is being factored into this total too much as this is one of the lowest totals this week. The Jaguars found plenty of success moving the football against them on the road last week racking up 365 total yards, but they had to settle for four field goals. The Lions had 359 yards against them the previous week and the Seahawks should find similar success as well. Take the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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01-01-23 | Cardinals v. Falcons OVER 41 | 19-20 | Loss | -110 | 107 h 40 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Falcons OVER 41 The Arizona Cardinals and Atlanta Falcons have nothing to play for this week. As a result, this is going to be a care-free game with plenty of offense and little defense being played. It will also be played inside the dome in Atlanta, and this is a very low total for a dome game. The Cardinals are expected to get back Colt McCoy at quarterback this week. He is one of the best backup QB's in the NFL. He will be able to move the football and score points on an Atlanta defense that ranks 23rd in the NFL in scoring at 23.3 points per game, 28th in total defense at 373.0 yards per game and 29th at 5.8 yards per play. Desmond Ridder will be making his third start of the season for the Falcons. We saw what Baker Mayfield did last week in his third start for the Rams. I think Ridder will have easily his best game yet as this is a big step down in class of opponent defense after facing two very good stop units in the Saints and Ravens in his first two starts. Now Ridder will be up against an Arizona defense that ranks 30th in scoring defense at 26.1 points per game and 22nd in total defense at 354.8 yards per game. The OVER is 7-2 in Cardinals last nine games overall. The OVER is 5-1 in Cardinals last six games vs. NFC opponents. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 67, 54, 57 and 47 points. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Atlanta. Take the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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01-01-23 | Saints v. Eagles OVER 44 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -110 | 107 h 40 m | Show |
20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Saints/Eagles OVER 44 The Philadelphia Eagles are a dead nuts OVER team right now with or without Jalen Hurts. He's questionable to return this week, but Gardner Minshew once again showed he's probably the best backup QB in the league by nearly upsetting the Cowboys in a 34-40 road loss last week. I'm good with the OVER In this game with Minshew or Hurts. The Eagles and their opponents have combined for 45 or more points in five consecutive games and eight of their last nine games overall. The OVER is 7-2 in those nine games. They will get their points, and I expect the Saints to chip in enough to push this total OVER the number. This total has been set too low due to the Saints going under the total in four consecutive games. But they played in terrible conditions last week in Cleveland, and they have faced two elite defenses in the 49ers and Bucs during this stretch as well. The Eagles have some injuries in their secondary that can be exploited as we saw by the Cowboys last week. They have also allowed at least 99 rushing yards in 10 of their last 11 games overall and the Saints are a good rushing team. I have the feeling they are going to have to get more pass-happy this week to try and keep up with Philadelphia. After some terrible weather last weekend, the weather looks good almost everywhere this week, including in Philadelphia. The forecast is calling for 56 degrees and 11 MPH winds with only a 7% chance of precipitation at kickoff on Sunday as of this writing on Friday. That sounds like perfect conditions for a shootout to me for an outdoor game. The Saints and Eagles have combined for at least 45 points in five of their last six meetings. The OVER is 11-1 in Eagles last 12 home games. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Philadelphia. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-25-22 | Packers v. Dolphins OVER 46.5 | Top | 26-20 | Loss | -110 | 146 h 54 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Packers/Dolphins OVER 46.5 I locked in this great number on Monday before the Packers played as it was available at pretty much every book. It reopened higher, so we got a great number here. I would downgrade it to a 15* play at anything above 49 at this point, but I'm glad myself and my long-term clients got this great number early. It's just another reason you should sign up long-term to get the best numbers, too, rather than bet on the day of the game. I consistently beat the line moves, which puts us at a big advantage on the books. But let's get into the breakdown of this game. With some terrible weather forecast across the country, this won't be one of them. Temperatures will be in the 50's in Miami Sunday with light winds and a small chance of precipitation. It will be balmy compared to the rest of the country and it will help us cash in this OVER ticket. Maimi is a dead nuts OVER team right now. They have scored 29 or more points in five of their last seven games overall. But they have allowed an average of 29.3 points per game and 409.7 yards per game in their last three games. They are decimated by injuries on defense, especially in the secondary. If they don't get pressure teams consistently find big plays against them right now. The Packers are in the best shape on offense they have been all season. Aaron Rodgers has his top five receivers and his top two running backs all healthy right now. He is no longer wearing a wrap on his thumb and that's a non-issue at this point. They basically just scored 31 points on the Rams as they kneeled it at the 1-yard line to finish the game after scoring 28 points against the Bears and 33 points against the Eagles in their previous two games. We've seen this Green Bay defense shredded against the best offenses this season, and Miami classifies as one of the best offenses. The Packers allowed 27 points to the Bills, 28 to the Cowboys, 27 to the Titans and 40 to the Eagles in recent weeks. Miami should be able to do whatever it wants against this Green Bay defense both on the ground and through the air. The OVER is 10-1 in Packers last 11 games in the second half of the season vs. a team with a winning record. Miami is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games in the second half of the season vs. good offensive teams averaging at least 5.65 yards per play. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-24-22 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 46 | Top | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 113 h 47 m | Show |
20* Eagles/Cowboys NFC East No-Brainer on OVER 46 I cashed in the Cowboys/Jaguars OVER last week in a game that saw 74 combined points, and I'm back on the OVER in a Cowboys game this week. They are a dead nuts OVER team right now. The Cowboys have scored at least 27 points in seven consecutive games now while also gaining at least 385 yards in all seven games. Their defense has slipped down the stretch, allowing at least 19 points in six of their last seven games overall. This total has been bet down from 50.5 to 46 now with the news that the Eagles will be without Jalen Hurts. But Gardner Minshew is arguably the best backup quarterback in the NFL and the Eagles will still hang a big number with him under center. The game plan will change to be more pass-happy, but that also benefits the OVER. The Eagles are averaging 37 points per game in their last four games overall and have ample weapons to make Minshew's job much easier both in the passing game and the running game. Dallas Goedert could make his return at tight end this week, too. Minshew will be up against a banged up Dallas secondary that will be missing several key players, plus LB Vander Esch is out with a shoulder injury suffered last week against the Jaguars. The Eagles also have key injuries on the defensive line and in the secondary, most notably DE Robert Quinn who they traded for out with a knee injury. So all the key playmakers for both teams are healthy right now with the exception of Hurts. And most of the notable injuries are all on defense for both teams. I don't love playing overs in division games, but this one is different. Cooper Rush was the quarterback of the Cowboys in that first meeting, while Hurts was the quarterback for the Eagles. These are two completely different offenses with Dak Prescott and Minshew running the show, and that element of surprise on a short week will favor the offenses over the defenses. Plus, in a weekend filled with terrible weather everywhere, this game will be played in a dome in perfect scoring conditions. I also don't think there will be as much intensity for this division rivalry as there would have been if it meant more. The Eagles basically have the NFC East locked up only needing one more win in their final three games, while the Cowboys are basically locked into the 4th seed in the NFC. Dallas beat Philadelphia 51-26 at home last season for 77 combined points. Three of the last four meetings have seen 54 or more combined points with the lone exception being that Cooper Rush game. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings. The OVER is 6-1 in Cowboys last seven games overall. The OVER is 6-2 in Eagles last eight games overall. Dallas is 7-0 OVER in its last seven home games after allowing 6 or more yards per play in its previous game. They just gave up 503 yards and 7.3 yards per play against the Jaguars last week. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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12-18-22 | Eagles v. Bears OVER 48.5 | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 133 h 12 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Eagles/Bears OVER 48.5 The Philadelphia Eagles are humming on offense right now scoring 41.0 points per game in their last three games overall. They are now the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL. They can name their number against what is the worst defense in the NFL currently in the Chicago Bears. The Bears have allowed 27 or more points in six consecutive games and an average of 33.5 points per game during this stretch. But this Chicago offense has really taken off with Justin Fields. In the last six games started by Fields, the Bears are averaging 27.8 points per game. He is clearly recovered from his shoulder injury after leading the Bears to 409 total yards against the Packers in his return from injury prior to the bye last week. I expect the Eagles to get out to a lead in this game and to continue to score at will similarly to what they did against the Giants last week when they kept pouring it on with 48 points. And Fields and the Bears will be forced to go hurry up to try and keep up with the Eagles. The one weakness of the Eagles is their running defense as they have allowed 99 or more rushing yards in eight of their last nine games. They rank 24th allowing 4.7 yards per carry. The strength of the Bears is their rushing offense that ranks 1st in the NFL at 189.2 rushing yards per game. The forecast looks good for a shootout for this time of year in Chicago with 12 MPH winds and 0% chance of precipitation. The OVER is 7-1 in Eagles last eight games overall. The OVER is 7-0 in Eagles last seven games following a win. The OVER is 39-16 in Eagles last 55 December games. The OVER is 7-0 in Bears last seven games overall. The OVER is 10-1 in Bears last 11 games following an ATS loss. These are both dead nuts OVER teams right now. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-18-22 | Lions v. Jets OVER 44 | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 85 h 26 m | Show | |
15* Lions/Jets Non-Conference ANNIHILATOR on OVER 44 The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team. They have combined for 49 or more points in five consecutive games and two of those games were played outdoors at New York and at Chicago. They have averaged 32.2 points per game in their last five games and 54.8 combined points per game in their last five as well, so this is a very low total of 44 for a game involving the Lions. The New York Jets have come to life on offense with Mike White at quarterback. They put up 31 points and 466 total yards against the Bears in White's first start. They put up 486 total yards in the Vikings in his second start. And last week they had 309 total yards against a very good Bills defense in terrible weather in Buffalo with heavy winds. Well, the weather is expected to be very good for a game in New York in December. Forecasts are calling for 38 degrees, only 10 MPH winds and zero chance of precipitation. That's pretty great weather outdoors for a shootout for this time of year. The Jets could set a couple offensive linemen back this week and Cory Davis is questionable. They may be without some key players on defense, most notably DL Quinnen Williams who is questionable with a calf injury. And while the Lions are playing better defensively of late, they still rank 31st in scoring defense at 26.7 points per game, 31st in total defense at 403.2 yards per game and 32nd at 6.2 yards per play. The OVER is 9-1 in Lions last 10 road games following four or more consecutive ATS wins. The OVER is 8-1 in Lions last nine games following an ATS win. The OVER is 9-2 in Jets last 11 games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game. The OVER is 6-1 in Jets last seven games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-18-22 | Cowboys v. Jaguars OVER 47.5 | Top | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 133 h 7 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cowboys/Jaguars OVER 47.5 The Jacksonville Jaguars are a dead nuts OVER team right now. They combined for 55 points with the Ravens, 54 with the Lions and 58 with the Titans in their last three games. It should be more of the same against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday with the forecast perfect for a shootout in Jacksonville with temps in the 50's and less than 10 MPH winds. Trevor Lawrence is one of the most improved quarterbacks in the league this season under the guidance of Doug Pederson. He is completing 66.2% of his passes with a 20-to-6 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 218 yards and four scores. Travis Etienne is averaging 5.0 YPC, and Lawrence is loaded with weapons in Kirk, Jones, Engram and Jones Jr. on the outside. The Dallas Cowboys are humming on offense right now as well. They have scored 28 or more points in six consecutive games and are averaging 37.7 points per game in their last six games. They will get their points against a Jacksonville defense that has really slipped in allowing at least 20 points in eight consecutive games and an average of 26.8 points per game during this stretch. Dallas has allowed at least 19 points in five of its last six games despite a very weak schedule of opposing offenses. The OVER is 5-1 in Cowboys last six games overall. The OVER is 6-0 in Cowboys last six games following a win. The OVER is 4-0 in Jaguars last four December games. The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings. The OVER is 7-0 in Jaguars last seven games off an upset win by 14 points or more as a road underdog. These last four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-12-22 | Patriots v. Cardinals OVER 44 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 22 m | Show |
20* Patriots/Cardinals ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 44 The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team right now. QB Kyler Murray is back and he has his top two receivers healthy in DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown, plus Rondale Moore should return following a bye this week. But the Cardinals have a very leaky defense that has allowed 29.8 points per game in their last six games. The Patriots have faced one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses this season. But they have struggled when they have faced some legit offenses. They allowed 24 points to the Bills, 33 points to the Vikings, 33 points to the Bears, 27 points to the Packers and 37 points to the Ravens. The Cardinals will hang a big number on their slow defense, too. But the Patriots should get their points against this suspect Arizona defense. They have done well on offense against the worst defenses in the NFL. They scored 26 points against the Vikings, 38 against the Browns, 29 against the Lions, 24 against the Packers and 26 against the Ravens. I see both teams getting to at least 24 points in this one, and we only need a 24-21 final to cash this ticket. The OVER is 6-0 in Cardinals last six games overall with combined scores of 44 or more points in all six and 48 or more points in five of them. Arizona is 6-0 OVER in its last six home games after losing three of its last four games coming in. Roll with the OVER in this game Monday. |
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12-11-22 | Dolphins v. Chargers OVER 51.5 | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 35 m | Show | |
15* Dolphins/Chargers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 51.5 The Miami Dolphins have scored at least 30 points in four of their last five games. The only team that held them in check was the 49ers, and they probably have the best defense in the NFL. I think they hang another big number here against this depleted Chargers defense. The Chargers have allowed at least 22 points in nine of their last 11 games overall. The only exceptions were against poor Denver and Atlanta offenses. There's a chance the Chargers get back Mike Williams and a couple offensive linemen this week, which would make them even more potent offensively. They have scored at least 20 points in seven of their last nine games overall. The Chargers rank 30th in scoring defense while the Dolphins rank 25th. Miami just tends to get in shootouts on the road this season. The Dolphins are scoring 26.2 points per game and allowing 32.8 points per game on the road this season. That's an average of 59 combined points per game, which is 7.5 points more than this 51.5-point total. The Chargers are allowing 28.0 points per game at home this season. The OVER is 4-0 in Dolphins last four road games. The OVER is 7-2 in Chargers last nine home games. The OVER is 10-2 in Chargers last 12 games following a loss. The OVER is 9-1 in Chargers last 10 games following a road loss. The OVER is 8-1 in Dolphins last nine road games vs. good offensive teams that average at least 350 yards per game. Take the OVER in this game Sunday night. |
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12-04-22 | Chiefs v. Bengals OVER 53 | 24-27 | Loss | -105 | 66 h 35 m | Show | |
15* Chiefs/Bengals AFC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 53 This game has shootout written all over it between two of the best offenses in the NFL. We are going to get the right conditions for a shootout in Cincinnati as well with the forecast calling for temps in the 40's, sunny skies, only 6 MPH wind and zero chance of precipitation. Kansas City ranks 1st in the NFL in scoring offense at 29.6 points per game, 1st in total offense at 430 yards per game and 1st at 6.5 yards per play. Cincinnati ranks 5th in scoring offense at 25.9 points per game and those numbers would be even better if they were healthy on offense all season. Well, reinforcements are on the way this week as both WR Ja'Marr Chase and RB Joe Mixon return from injury in time for this huge showdown with Kansas City. The return of those two cannot be overstated. Chase has 47 receptions for 605 yards and six touchdowns in only seven games this season. Mixon has 605 rushing yards and six touchdowns, while also catching 41 balls for 314 yards and two scores. Joe Burrow is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL already, and now he has his full allotment of weapons this week. Last year Cincinnati won a 34-31 over Kansas City shootout at home while racking up 475 yards and allowing 414 yards. Each of the last four meetings in this series have seen 51 or more combined points, including 55 or more in three of those. The OVER is 8-1 in Chiefs last nine road games. The OVER is 4-1-1 in Bengals last six games overall. Kansas City is 7-0 OVER in its last seven road games vs. teams that complete 64% of their passes or better. Take the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-04-22 | Jets v. Vikings OVER 44.5 | 22-27 | Win | 100 | 62 h 10 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jets/Vikings OVER 44.5 The Minnesota Vikings are a dead nuts OVER team. They have a very good offense that has recently put up 33 points against New England and 33 against Buffalo in two of their last three games. But their defense has been terrible all season, especially of late. They rank 31st in total defense at 390.7 yards per game allowed and 31st at 6.1 yards per play. They have allowed 32 points per game in their last three games and just gave up 26 points and 409 yards to a bad Patriots offense last week. The Jets were an UNDER team in the first half of the season, but the switch to Mike White at quarterback has rejuvenated this offense. He went 22-of-29 for 308 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-10 win over Chicago last week. He has his full compliment of weapons at receiver with Cory Davis back healthy to go with the underrated duo of Wilson and Moore. White will light up this Minnesota defense, too. The Jets have a great defense, but they have also benefited from a very easy schedule of opposing offenses. They faced the Bears and a backup QB last week, the Patriots twice, the Broncos, the Packers, the Dolphins without Tua and the Steelers. They did hold the Bills in check, but that's a division opponent they are familiar with. Against the three other top offenses they faced they gave up 24 points to the Ravens, 30 to the Browns and 27 to the Bengals. Minnesota can get 24-plus in this one pretty easily. Minnesota's six home games this season have seen an average of 49.2 combined points per game. The Vikings are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 games after winning two of their last three games. The OVER is 8-2 in Vikings last 10 home games. The OVER is 9-2 in Vikings last 11 games on fieldturf. The OVER is 14-2 in Vikings last 16 games after rushing for fewer than 90 yards last game. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-04-22 | Jaguars v. Lions OVER 50.5 | Top | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 69 h 38 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Lions OVER 50.5 The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 8th in scoring offense at 25.0 points per game, 8th in total offense at 362.9 yards per game and 8th at 5.8 yards per play. The Lions are dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 28.2 points per game, 32nd in total defense at 414.5 yards per game and 32nd at 6.3 yards per play. The Jaguars haven't exactly been stopping anyone, either. They rank 21st in allowing 5.7 yards per play this season. But they have gotten their offense going in recent weeks with 27 points three weeks ago against the Raiders and 28 against the Ravens last week. I see both teams getting 28-plus in this one, and we only need a 27-24 final to cash this OVER ticket. The Lions have really been an OVER team of late because they have gotten healthy on offense. They have scored 25, 31 and 31 points in their last three games overall. Detroit's five non-divisional home games have all seen 53 or more combined points and an average of 68 combined points per game. The OVER is 6-1 in Jaguars last seven road games. The OVER is 9-4 in Lions last 13 games overall. Take the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots OVER 43.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
20* Bills/Patriots AFC East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on OVER 43.5 The Buffalo Bills did not punt once in their final two meetings with the New England Patriots last season. They won the final regular season meeting 33-21 for 54 combined points on the road while outgaining the Patriots 428 to 288. They won 47-17 for 64 combined points in the playoffs while outgaining the Patriots 482 to 305. Sure, the Patriots pulled the upset in Buffalo in the first meeting last season, but that was mostly weather related as the conditions were terrible and windy. Well, the conditions will be nearly perfect for a game in New England for this time of year with 32 degrees, only 6 MPH winds and no precipitation in the forecast. The Bills rank 2nd in scoring offense at 28.1 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 415.9 yards per game and 2nd at 6.3 yards per play. They are going to get their points, and the Patriots are going to have to throw the ball more than they want to to try and stay in this game. This is such a low total for a game involving Buffalo. In fact, this 43.5-point total is the lowest of the season for a Buffalo game. That fact alone shows there's value with the OVER. Mac Jones is coming off one of the best games of his career. He led the Patriots to 26 points against the Vikings while throwing for 364 yards. Unfortunately, they lost that game by 7 as their defense proved vulnerable giving up 33 points to the Vikings. And we saw the Vikings and Bills play in a shootout recently that saw 63 combined points. New England is 18-4 OVER in its last 22 home games after passing for more than 350 yards in its previous game. Buffalo is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games after winning six or seven of its last eight games. Take the OVER in this game Thursday. |
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11-28-22 | Steelers v. Colts OVER 39 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
20* Steelers/Colts ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 39 Both the Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7) and Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1) suffered crushing losses to their playoff hopes last week. The Steelers lost 30-37 at home to the Bengals, while the Colts blew a double-digit 4th quarter lead in a 17-16 home loss to the Eagles. I expect a pretty care-free game here on Monday Night Football with both offenses performing better than expected. The Colts have been better offensively since getting both Matt Ryan and Johnathan Taylor back from injury. They have averaged 20.5 points per game in their last two games against the Raiders and Eagles. They have been able to run the football, and Ryan is making enough plays in play-action to keep the offense moving. Now they'll be up against a Steelers defense that just allowed 37 points and 408 total yards to the Bengals last week. The Steelers finally got their offense going the past two weeks under Kenny Pickett. After scoring 20 points and gaining 379 yards against the Saints two weeks ago, they put up 30 points and 351 yards on the Bengals last week. Najee Harris looks fully healthy now and has rushed for 90-plus yards in consecutive weeks. Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 35.5 to 42 points (Pittsburgh) - off a close division loss by 7 points or less with a losing record on the season are 34-14 (70.8%) over the last 10 seasons. The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings. Expect more offense than the books are giving these teams credit for in this standalone game. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
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11-24-22 | Bills v. Lions OVER 52.5 | Top | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 85 h 28 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bills/Lions OVER 52.5 I cashed in the OVER between the Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns in Detroit on Sunday. I'm back on the OVER between the Buffalo Bills and the Detroit Lions at Ford Field again Thursday. These are two dead nuts OVER teams right now that are playing great offense and terrible defense. The Bills rank 1st in scoring offense at 28.1 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 417.4 yards per game and 3rd at 6.4 yards per play. Detroit ranks 8th in scoring offense at 25.0 points per game, 6th in total offense at 366.6 yards per game and 6th at 5.9 yards per play. It's well known the Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 28.2 points per game, dead last (32nd) in total defense at 415.9 yards per game and dead last at 6.4 yards per play. They just gave up over 400 yards to the lowly Giants last week and have now allowed at least 400 yards in four consecutive games. They just lost their top CB in Okudah last week and could be without CB LUcas, DE Paschal and DL Harris. The Bills started the season with one of the best defenses in the NFL, but injuries have really caught up with them on that side of the football. After allowing 33 points and 481 total yards to the Vikings two weeks ago, they gave up 23 points and 386 total yards to the Browns last week. The Lions will have success moving the football on this banged-up Bills defense that is without S Hyde and could be without DE Epenesa, LB Edmunds and CB White this week. This is the healthiest this Detroit offense has been in a long time and is a big part of their three-game winning streak. The OVER is 9-3 in Lions last 12 games overall. The OVER is 20-8 in Lions last 28 home games. The OVER is 6-0 in Lions last six games following a win. The OVER is 8-0 in Bills last eight road games vs. good passing teams completing 61% of their passes or better in the second half of the season. The OVER is 10-1 in Bills last 11 road games vs. poor rushing defenses that allow at least 4.5 yards per carry. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. |
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11-20-22 | Browns v. Bills OVER 48 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 68 h 18 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bills/Browns OVER 48 I was betting on the Cleveland Browns and the UNDER when this game was supposed to be played in a couple feet of snow. That would have benefited Cleveland and their running game. But now that this game is being played in a dome in Detroit, it benefits the Bills more, but it really benefits the OVER more than anything. Buffalo will now be able to be in its comfort zone, which is having Josh Allen drop back and make plays with his arm and his feet. This is arguably the best offense in the NFL. The Bills rank 2nd in scoring offense at 27.8 points per game, 1st in total offense and 424.1 yards per game and 1st at 6.5 yards per play. Playing in a dome they are going to be pretty much unstoppable. We saw what happened to this Cleveland defense last week playing in perfect conditions in Miami against another team that likes to throw it around the yard and has great team speed. They gave up 39 points and 491 total yards to the Dolphins. The Browns rank 31st in scoring defense at 29.3 points per game and 25th allowing 5.8 yards per play. They have injuries in their secondary and just lost starting CB Greg Newsome II to a concussion in practice in an accidental collision on Friday to make things worse. They have no chance of stopping Buffalo. The Browns will be able to get their running game going against a Buffalo defense that is allowing 176.3 rushing yards per game their last three games. And they're going to be without their best linebacker in Tremaine Edmunds, who left the previous game with a knee injury. They were already without Micah Hyde and Tredavious White and could be without Jordan Poyer as well. All these injuries have had the Bills with a leaky defense in recent weeks. But I do expect the Bills to have the lead for the majority of this game and Jacoby Brissett to try and have to play from behind, which will speed up their offense. The Browns have a better offense than they get credit for. They are 10th in the NFL in scoring at 24.1 points per game, 5th in total offense at 375.9 yards per game and 11th at 5.6 yards per play. Let's just look at this from a value perspective. Books opened this total at 47.5 when it was supposed to be played in Buffalo knowing what the forecast was. It got bet all the way down to 41 as bettors caught wind of the forecast. Now they reopened it at 48, which is only 0.5 higher than the original opener in Buffalo. That makes no sense since this is being played in a dome. We'll take advantage and back the OVER in these perfect conditions for a shootout. Buffalo is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 road games vs. poor rushing defenses that allow 4.5 or more yards per carry. The Bills are 6-0 OVER in their last six road games vs. good offensive teams that average 5.65 or more yards per play in the second half of the season. Buffalo is 7-0 OVER in its last seven road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better in the second half of the season. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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11-14-22 | Commanders v. Eagles UNDER 44.5 | Top | 32-21 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 34 m | Show |
20* Commanders/Eagles ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 44.5 Divisional UNDERS are hitting at a 75% clip this season. UNDERS in general have been good, especially in primetime games, and even more so in division games. I think it will be more of the same on Monday Night Football between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders. Most important is that this head-to-head series has been an UNDER series as well. In fact, the Eagles and Commanders have combined for 44 or fewer points in five consecutive meetings. That makes for a 5-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 44.5-point total. The Eagles beat the Commanders 24-8 in their first meeting this season for 32 combined points. So there's even more familiarity here as this will be their second meeting, and familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. The Commanders haven't gotten any better on offense since the beginning of the season. They have been held to an average of just 14.9 points per game in their last seven games. Taylor Heineke doesn't have as many negative plays as Carson Wentz, but he's not much better, either. The improvement for the Commanders of late has come on defense as they have gotten healthier on that side of the football. They have allowed 21 or fewer points in five consecutive games and an average of just 17.0 points per game over the last five. They just got star DL Chase Young back from injury, which bolsters an already strong defensive line. The Eagles have an elite defense that ranks 3rd in allowing 299.0 yards per game and 2nd in allowing 4.7 yards per play. They are also 4th in scoring defense at 16.9 yards per game. The Eagles do have great offensive numbers, and their strength is clearly running the football. But that now meets Washington's strength which is stopping the run. They are holding opponents to 113 yards per game and 4.4 per carry on the ground, holding opponents to 21 rushing yards per game and 0.3 per carry less than their season averages. They rank in the Top 10 in rushing defense and will get enough stops to keep this one UNDER the total. Washington is 9-0 UNDER in its last nine games after two consecutive ATS wins. The Commanders are 9-1 UNDER in their last 10 games after scoring 17 points or fewer in two consecutive games. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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11-06-22 | Dolphins v. Bears OVER 45.5 | Top | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 50 h 34 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dolphins/Bears OVER 45.5 This Miami offense is absolutely explosive when healthy. That has been evident when Tua has been in the lineup. In fact, the Dolphins are 5-0 in games in which Tua has started and finished and have scored 26.0 points per game in those five games. They will have their way with this soft Chicago defense this week. Chicago just gave up 49 points to the Dallas Cowboys last week. They traded away Robert Quinn last week and now traded away Roquan Smith this week. Those are arguably their two best players on defense and certainly their two biggest leaders in the locker room. Chicago already had one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and it is going to be even worse moving forward. But the Bears are improving rapidly on offense. After scoring 33 points on the Patriots two weeks ago, they came back with 29 more points this week. They are playing to their strengths, which is using Fields' legs and the one-two punch of Montgomery and Herbert on the ground. They have rushed for at least 238 yards in three consecutive games, and Fields is getting more efficient as a passer. Reinforcements are on the way this week for this Chicago offense as well as they traded for WR Chase Claypool of the Steelers to give Fields another weapon. They should be able to pick apart this Miami defense, which has injuries all of their secondary. The Lions were able to score 27 points on the Dolphins last week in the first half alone and finished with 311 passing yards. And we saw what a mobile QB could do to the Dolphins earlier this season when Lamar Jackson led the Ravens to 38 points and 473 total yards against them, including 155 rushing. The only thing holding me back from pulling the trigger on this total was the forecast, which called for a chance of rain and heavy winds earlier this week. But that forecast has since cleared up and there will be no rain in Chicago, temps in the 50's and only 10-15 MPH winds. It should be good scoring conditions for this two improving offenses and declining defenses. Miami ranks 26th in the NFL allowing 5.9 yards per play on defense while Chicago ranks 22nd allowing 5.7 yards per play. Miami ranks 3rd in the NFL averaging 6.2 yards per play on offense, which is very impressive considering Tua has only started and finished five of their eight games. Take the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-23-22 | Seahawks v. Chargers OVER 50 | Top | 37-23 | Win | 100 | 42 h 9 m | Show |
20* Seahawks/Chargers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 50 Seattle ranks 29th in scoring defense at 27.2 points per game, 30th in total defense at 410.8 yards per game and 30th in allowing 6.2 yards per play this season. The Chargers are going to put forth their best offensive performance of the season against the worst defense they have faced yet. The Chargers are expected to get Keenan Allen back this week, and Justin Herbert should have a monster game. Seattle ranks 30th in allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt and has a ton of injuries in the secondary right now. That's going to make it tough covering all these weapons for the Chargers. Los Angeles also got good news this week with a couple starters healthy along the offensive line that they were missing last week against the Broncos. Seattle ranks 9th in scoring offense this season at 24.3 points per game. Geno Smith has the highest completion percentage in the NFL and some of the best weapons in the league with Lockett and Metcalf. But the Seahawks want to run the ball, ranking 11th in rushing at 124.3 yards per game and 3rd in averaging 5.3 yards per attempt. The Seahawks are going to be able to move the football on the ground at will against the soft interior of this Chargers defense. In fact, the Chargers rank 31st in the NFL in allowing 5.6 yards per rush attempt. The Browns rushed for 213 yards on them two weeks ago in a 30-28 victory in a shootout. It should be a similar result in this game in a shootout as both teams' offensive strengths are the weaknesses of these defenses. Seattle is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 games following an upset win as an underdog. The OVER is 9-3 in Chargers last 12 games overall. The OVER is 6-0 in Chargers last six games after gaining more than 350 yards in their previous game. Take the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-23-22 | Falcons v. Bengals OVER 47 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 39 h 46 m | Show |
20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Falcons/Bengals OVER 47 The Atlanta Falcons have an offense that teams just cannot figure out. They rank 9th in scoring offense at 24.3 points per game behind a run-heavy attack that ranks 3rd in the NFL at 165.2 yards per game. They are going to be able to run the ball on the Bengals, who are wtihout two of their best run stoppers in DT Tupou and DE Gunter. The Bengals gave up 228 rushing yards to the Saints last week. They rank 23rd in allowing 4.7 yards per carry this season. The Bengals got their offense going last week putting up 30 points on the Saints and have now scored 27 or more points in three of their last four games. They will be able to take advantage of an Atlanta defense that ranks 27th in allowing 385.2 yards per game. The Falcons are missing two starters at cornerback, so Joe Burrow should have a big game through the air. The Falcons rank 31st in allowing 281.2 passing yards per game. It is supposed to be 72 degrees in Cincinnati Sunday and only 8 MPH winds, so it's perfect conditions for a shootout. Both defenses are susceptible to the strengths of the opposing offenses, which is exactly what I like for an OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-23-22 | Lions v. Cowboys OVER 49 | Top | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 46 m | Show |
20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lions/Cowboys OVER 49 The Dallas Cowboys have the potential to be the best offense in the NFL now with Dak Prescott returning this week. They also have both CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz healthy, and just recently got back Michael Gallup. Prescott comes back to his full arsenal of weapons. The Cowboys will hang a big number on the Detroit Lions, who rank last in the NFL in scoring defense allowing 34.0 points per game. The Lions are also last in the NFL in allowing 428.6 yards per game and last in the NFL in allowing 6.5 yards per play. Simply put, they have the worst defense in the league. The Lions should be able to hang with the Cowboys by matching them score for score. They are expected to get back WR St. Brown from injury, and he was a monster before going down. They could also get back RB Swift this week as they are coming off their bye with their offense getting healthier. Just getting Jared Goff's favorite weapon back in St. Brown is massive. He has 27 receptions for 271 yards and three touchdowns in three games this season. Even with these injuries, the Lions still rank 3rd in scoring offense at 28.0 points per game. They are also 2nd in total offense at 411.8 yards per game. They have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, which has opened up big holes in the running game while also giving Goff the necessary time he needs to find open receivers for being a stationary QB. Dallas does have good defensive numbers, but this will be their toughest test yet. I think it's rare that you will see a total involving the Lions in the 40's the rest of the season, so we'll take advantage this week. The OVER is 6-1 in Lions last seven games overall. The OVER is 6-0 in Lions last six games vs. NFC opponents. The OVER is 21-7 in Cowboys last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The OVER is 8-1 in the last eight meetings between the Lions and Cowboys and they have combined for 50 or more points in eight of those nine meetings. Take the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-10-22 | Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 51 | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 179 h 15 m | Show |
20* Raiders/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 51 This one is as simply as it gets. When the Chiefs and Raiders get together, it's always a shootout. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 57, 55, 66 and 72 points in the last four meetings, respectively. This total of 51 has been set too low, especially with both offenses coming in hot. The Chiefs are coming off their second 40-point effort of the season when they beat the Bucs 41-31. Scoring 41 on that Tampa Bay defense is no small feat. They also scored 44 on the Cardinals back in Week 1. It looks like Patrick Mahomes isn't missing Tyreke Hill one bit. He'll stay hot against a Raiders defense that he has absolutely owns. The Chiefs have scored at least 35 points in seven of their last eight meetings with the Raiders. It will be more of the same here against a Raiders defense that is allowing 25.0 points per game and 5.8 yards per play this season, ranking 23rd in scoring defense and 21st in defensive yards per play. The Raiders are loaded on offense and have scored at least 22 points in three consecutive games. They just put up a season-high 32 points on a very good Broncos defense that ranks among the best in the NFL to this point. They should also be able to keep pace with the Chiefs, who allowed 326 passing yards to the Chargers and 373 more to the Bucs. The weather looks good in Kansas City Monday with temperatures in the 60's and only 7 MPH winds at game time. The OVER is 19-5 in Chiefs last 24 games after allowing 350 or more passing yards last game. Andy Reid is 9-1 OVER after allowing 350 or more passing yards last game as the coach of the Chiefs. The OVER is 9-3 in Chiefs last 12 games overall. Take the OVER in this game Monday. |
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10-09-22 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 46 | 15-21 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 55 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Falcons/Bucs OVER 46 The Atlanta Falcons are a dead nuts OVER team. They have an elite offense and a suspect defense. The Falcons have the offense to hang with the Bucs. They are putting up 25.8 points per game and 5.9 yards per play, ranking 8th in scoring offense and 9th in offensive yards per play. They are allowing 25.3 points per game and 5.9 yards per play, ranking 25th in scoring defense and 24th in yards per play allowed. I think this number has been set so low because the Bucs have struggled so much on offense and have been elite defensively. But that has changed now that the Bucs have gotten healthy on offense. They scored 31 points against the Chiefs last week. They just got back Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Julio Jones and should be much better offensively moving forward. The problem now with the Bucs is injuries on defense, which resulted in a terrible effort against Kansas City last week. They gave up 41 points and 417 total yards to Kansas City. Most concerning is the 189 rushing yards they allowed to a Chiefs team not known for running the football. That could spell disaster here as they take on an Atlanta offense that ranks 4th in rushing for 168.0 yards per game and 6th at 5.1 yards per rush. The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings. In fact, the Bucs and Falcons have combined for 47 or more points in eight consecutive meetings, which would make for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 46-point total. They have averaged a whopping 60.1 combined points per game in those eight meetings. The forecast is perfect for a shootout in Tampa with temps in the 80s and only 10 MPH winds expected. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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09-11-22 | 49ers v. Bears UNDER 42 | Top | 10-19 | Win | 100 | 217 h 56 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bears/49ers UNDER 42 The San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears have two of the worst quarterback situations in the NFL. They also have two of the best defenses in the league. That leads me to really like this UNDER 42 in the season opener as I think points will be at a premium. Kyle Shanahan is going to be very conservative with Trey Lance early in the season. Look for him to run the football more than normal and to rely on ball control to win games until Lance gets comfortable a few weeks down the road. The 49ers easily have a Top 3 defense and probably the best defense in the NFL this season. They nearly rode that defense to the Super Bowl last year. Justin Fields struggled last year as a starter. He should make strides forward, unfortunately there isn't a lot of talent around him, especially with the loss of top receiver Allen Robinson. The Bears also figure to rely on the running game a lot early in the season, and Fields will be a big part of that with his dual-threat ability. Despite miserable offense after miserable offense, the Bears have been pretty steady in fielding a top-notch defense throughout the years. Chicago is 60-34 in its last 94 games as a home underdog of 7 points or less. The UNDER is 7-1 in 49ers last eight games overall. The UNDER is 20-7 in Bears last 27 home games. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs OVER 54 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -111 | 100 h 24 m | Show |
20* Bengals/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on OVER 54 The Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals meet in the AFC Championship in a rematch from a 34-31 thriller back on January 2nd. The Bengals had 475 yards while the Chiefs had 414 yards in an absolute shootout that saw 65 combined points. It should be more of the same here in the rematch as we'll side with the OVER 54. The weather report for Kansas City is great for this time of year with sunny skies, temps in the 40's and less than 5 MPH winds. That will help us cash this OVER as well. Joe Burrow has this Cincinnati offense humming. He has led them to 30.0 points per game in his last four starts while throwing for 1,563 yards and a 10-to-1 TD/INT ratio. I expect the Bengals to be playing from behind and Burrow to have to try to keep them in it, which he is more than capable of doing. He'll be up against a Kansas City defense that was hit hard by injuries in the secondary against the Bills and could be missing a couple key players. This is an overrated KC defense as it is ranking 28th in the NFL in allowing 5.8 yards per play. Burrow threw for 446 yards and four touchdowns in that first meeting. The Chiefs are humming on offense right now and are as healthy as they have been all season on this side of the ball. They are scoring 37.3 points per game in their last seven games while winning six of those with their lone loss coming 31-34 at Cincinnati. The Bengals have some key injuries along their front seven defensively that will make it even more difficult for them to tame this Kansas City offense. The OVER is 7-0 in Chiefs last seven games overall. The OVER is 8-1 in Chiefs last nine January games. The OVER is 7-0 in Chiefs last seven vs. AFC opponents. Kansas City holds nothing back offensively in the playoffs when games matter most, making them even more potent than during the regular season. Burrow is more than capable of matching Mahomes score for score to help us cash this OVER. Take the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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01-23-22 | Bills v. Chiefs OVER 54 | Top | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 92 h 2 m | Show |
20* Bills/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on OVER 54 Two of the best offenses in the NFL square off Sunday when the Buffalo Bills visit the Kansas City Chiefs. The Bills are putting up 29.4 points per game while the Chiefs are averaging 29.0 points per game this season. Both offenses have been hitting on all cylinders here down the stretch with even better numbers. Indeed, the Chiefs are scoring 36.5 points per game in their last six games. The Bills are putting up 33.4 points per game in their last five games and just hung 47 on a very good New England defense. Both teams will get their points, and which ever team is trailing is more than capable of catching up with a quick-strike offense. The Bills do have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but they haven't faced many good offenses especially here down the stretch. Their last five games have come against the Panthers, Patriots (twice), Falcons and Jets. In the game prior they gave up 33 points and 488 total yards in a 33-27 loss to the Bucs. Andy Reid and company can figure out their defense. After all, Patrick Mahomes has averaged 32.2 points per game as a starter in the playoffs throughout his career. The Bills will get their points against a soft Kansas City defense that ranks 28th in allowing 5.8 yards per play this season. This is one of the most overrated defenses in the NFL. The Bills shredded them in their first meeting this season in a 38-20 win for 58 combined points. The Chiefs were held to 20 because they committed four turnovers, which won't happen again. The previous meeting in the AFC Championship last year saw 62 combined points as well. The books have set this number too low at 54 here. The forecast looks great for a January game in Kansas City. Indeed, temperatures will be in the 40's with less than 5 MPH winds and zero chance of precipitation. The OVER is 8-0 in Bills last eight games as underdogs. The OVER is 6-0 in Chiefs last six games overall. The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Kansas City. Take the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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01-22-22 | Bengals v. Titans OVER 47 | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -107 | 66 h 3 m | Show |
25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bengals/Titans OVER 47 It's going to be pretty perfect scoring conditions in Nashville for the month of January Saturday. Temperatures will be in the mid-30's with less than 5 MPH winds. These are two of the better offenses in the NFL, and both defenses are susceptible to the opposing offense's strengths. Joe Burrow has this Cincinnati offense humming. He has led their offense to 33.7 points per game in his last three starts while throwing for 1,215 yards with a 10-to-0 TD/INT ratio. The Bengals should be able to pass all over a Tennessee defense that is stout against the run, but ranks 25th against the pass in allowing 245.2 yards per game. They gave up 306 passing yards to the 49ers and 289 more to the Texans in two of their last three games down the stretch. The Titans are a dangerous offense when they have Derrick Henry, AJ Brown and Julio Jones all healthy. Well, they haven't been healthy together for much of the season. But they are entering the playoffs as Henry is expected to make his return. And the Titans should be able to run all over a Cincinnati defense that ranks 17th in allowing 4.4 yards per carry. But this Cincinnati defense just got even thinner and lost their best run stuffer in DT Larry Ogunjobi to a season-ending injury in the win over the Raiders last week. They will also be without DT Mike Daniels, and they could be without DE Trey Hendrickson and DT Josh Tupou, who are both questionable. The Titans should be able to run the football at will against this banged-up front seven, and that will set up big plays off play-action to Brown and Jones. Tennessee is 13-2 OVER in its last 15 games after winning three of its last four games. The Titans are 6-0 OVER in their last six games after leading their previous game by 14 points or more at halftime. The OVER is 5-0 in Bengals last five games after allowing more than 350 yards in their previous game. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Tennessee. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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01-08-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles OVER 43 | Top | 51-26 | Win | 100 | 32 h 44 m | Show |
20* Cowboys/Eagles NFC East No-Brainer on OVER 43 The Dallas Cowboys are playing to win this game to try and improve their seeding in the NFC and sharpen up following a home loss to the Cardinals last week. Their offense is mostly healthy and should put up plenty of points on this Philadelphia Eagles defense to get the OVER. It's uncertain what the Eagles are going to do. The good news is that they have one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL in Gardner Minshew if they decide to bench Jalen Hurts. He is a gun slinger and will be trying to win this game no matter what, so the Eagles should be able to do their part on offense as well. This Dallas defense is going to be missing some key players including Micah Parsons and possibly Trevon Diggs. Those are not only their two best defensive players, but two of the best defensive players in the NFL this season. The Eagles have all kinds of COVID questions and it's going to hurt their defense more than their offense if players cannot go. Dallas is scoring 31.0 points per game in its last six games overall. Philadelphia has scored at least 20 points in 13 of its last 14 games overall. If the Eagles get to 20 in this game, this should get OVER the total, and I think they will. It will be 28 degrees in Philadelphia Saturday but only 3 MPH winds, so scoring conditions will be just fine. Dallas beat Philadelphia 41-21 in their first meeting this season for 62 combined points. They also combined for 54 points in their final meeting last season. This total is just way too low Saturday knowing that the Cowboys are playing to try to win, while Philadelphia will be just fine on offense with Minshew if it comes down to it. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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01-02-22 | Bucs v. Jets OVER 45.5 | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bucs/Jets OVER 45.5 The Tampa Bay Bucs should get Mike Evans back this week. They have been scoring at will regardless of who has been in the lineup. The Bucs have scored 30 or more points in five of their last six games overall. They should get to 30 here to help pave the way for us cashing this OVER. The Jets have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They rank 32nd in scoring defense at 29.9 points per game and 32nd in total defense at 391.3 yards per game. They are 31st against the run at 141.3 yards per game and 28th against the pass at 250.0 yards per game. The Bucs are going to be able to name their number on the Jets. New York has shown some life on offense in recent weeks in scoring 26 points against the Jaguars and 24 against the Dolphins. They should do their part to get this OVER against a Tampa Bay defense that will be missing several key players this week. They have three cornerbacks either questionable or doubtful. They will for sure be without two of their best pass rushers in Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul as well. Bruce Arians is 8-1 OVER after allowing 14 points or less last game as the coach of Tampa Bay. Arians is 16-4 OVER in road games following two or more consecutive unders in all games as a head coach. Tampa Bay is 6-0 OVER in its last six games following a double-digit road win. The OVER is 20-5-1 in Bucs last 26 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. The OVER is 9-3 in Jets last 12 games overall. Take the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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01-02-22 | Chiefs v. Bengals OVER 50.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
20* Chiefs/Bengals AFC No-Brainer on OVER 50.5 Expect a shootout between two of the best offenses in the NFL that boast two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow. These are two of the healthiest offenses in the NFL right now, which is why they are both humming. Both teams have all of their key playmakers on offense as Travis Kelce returns for the Chiefs this week. Kansas City has now scored 39.3 points per game in its last three games as it has entered playoff mode trying to get that all-important top seed in the AFC and a first-round bye. They won't be holding anything back on offense this week. Burrow is coming off a franchise-record 525 passing yards against the Baltimore Ravens last week in leading the Bengals to a 41-21 victory. He is going to have to be on top of his game to try and match Mahomes and company score for score, and I think he'll be up to the test in a shootout. The Chiefs have benefited from playing a lot of terrible offenses lately. The one exception was the Chargers, who had 28 points and 428 total yards against them even though they came with zero points three times inside the Kansas City 5-yard line. The Bengals have a ton of injuries on defense right now that are going to make them soft as butter and give them almost zero chance to slow down the Chiefs. The OVER is 5-1 in Chiefs last six January games. The OVER is 4-1 in Chiefs last five vs. AFC opponents. The OVER is 7-0 in Bengals last seven January games. The OVER is 4-1 in Bengals last five home games. The OVER is 5-0 in Bengals last five games following a win. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 51.5 | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 52 h 1 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Chiefs/Chargers OVER 51.5 The Los Angeles Chargers should get back Keenan Allen this week from COVID protocol. Their already potent offense should be even stronger as it is nearly at full strength. They will be up against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that will be without their best player in Chris Jones due to COVID. "The only guy you can really compare him to is probably Aaron Donald," Tyrann Mathieu said. "You talk about inside dominance. It's going to be a big challenge for us to replace him." Of course, the way the Chiefs are going offensively right now they will be able to match the Chargers score for score. They just hung 48 points on the Raiders last week after scoring 41 on them in their first meeting a couple weeks ago. This Kansas City offense is pretty much at full strength now and ready for a big finish. These are two of the worst teams in the NFL at stopping the run. The Chargers rank 29th at 4.7 yards per carry allowed, while the Chiefs are 26th at 4.6 yards per carry. The Chiefs are also 31st allowing 5.9 yards per play on defense. Only the Jets have been worse than them in this category. This has been an OVER series. Three of the last four meetings have seen 52 or more combined points. That includes the 30-24 upset win by the Chargers as 7-point road underdogs in their first meeting this season. The Chiefs should have won that game as they were -4 in turnovers, had 33 first downs and 437 total yards. They should have scored more than 24 points. Both offenses should top 24 in this one. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. |
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12-12-21 | Bills v. Bucs OVER 53 | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 98 h 46 m | Show |
20* Bills/Bucs Non-Conference No-Brainer on OVER 53 It's going to be perfect weather in Tampa Bay Sunday. The forecast calling for temps in the upper-70's with 4 MPH winds. It's perfect conditions for a shootout between two of the best offenses in the NFL. The Bucs rank 1st in scoring offense (31.4 PPG) while the Bills rank 5th (28.0 PPG) this season. And I think the fact that both of these teams went UNDER the total last week is keeping this total lower than it should be. Buffalo played the Patriots in terrible winds. And clearly the OVER on the Bucs/Falcons game was the right side but came up short. The Bucs are going to continue to put up big numbers on offense. They have scored 30 or more points now in three straight games and in seven of their 12 games this season. Tom Brady has thrown for at least 4 TD passes in six of his 12 games this season. The Bills are missing their best cover corner in Tre'Davious White, who recently tore his ACL. His loss wasn't important last week, but it will be against the Bucs this week. The Bills will get their offense going this week. They have scored 31 or more points in seven of their 12 games this season. They'll be up against a banged-up Tampa Bay secondary. Richard Sherman and Jamel Dean are both questionable, and they are missing Mike Edwards and Carlton Davis already. The Falcons moved the ball up and down the field on them but didn't capitalize in the red zone. The Bills will capitalize and keep pace with the Bucs. I expect at least one team to get to 30 points in this one if not both. Tampa Bay is 11-2 OVER in its last 13 games off a win by 10 points or more. Buffalo is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games following a division game. The Bills are 7-0 OVER in their last even road games against a good passing team that completes 61% or better. The OVER is 6-0 in Bills last six games as underdogs. The OVER is 11-4 in Bucs last 15 games as home favorites. Take the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-05-21 | Chargers v. Bengals OVER 49 | 41-22 | Win | 100 | 45 h 41 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Chargers/Bengals OVER 49 These are two of the better offenses in the NFL and they should have no problem combining to top 49 points in this game Sunday. It will be sunny with temperatures in the 40's in Cincinnati on Sunday with light winds under 10 MPH. The weather will make for perfect scoring conditions in this matchup of two of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL. The Bengals are scoring 28.1 points per game this season. Joe Burrow is completing 69.3% of his passes for 2,835 yards with a 22-to-12 TD/INT ratio this season. Joe Mixon has rushed for 924 yards and 11 touchdowns and should have a huge game on the ground against a Chargers defense that is the worst in the NFL against the run. They give up 145 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry this season, and 26.6 points per game overall. The Chargers are scoring 24.8 points per game this season and averaging 383.8 yards per game. Justin Herbert is completing 66% of his passes for 3,230 yards with a 24-to-10 TD/INT ratio. Austin Ekeler has rushed for 604 yards and has 473 receiving yards with 14 combined touchdowns. The Bengals have good defensive numbers, but they have also played the easiest schedule in the NFL of opposing offenses. Their defense isn't as good as the numbers would suggest. The OVER is 6-1-1 in Bengals last eight games as home favorites. The OVER is 4-0 in Bengals last four games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Look for a shootout as Burrow and Herbert try and match each other score for score in this one. Take the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-05-21 | Bucs v. Falcons OVER 50 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -118 | 45 h 41 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bucs/Falcons OVER 50 This game definitely sets up to be a shootout. I don't think it will be as high scoring as the first meeting when the Bucs won 48-25 for 73 combined points. There won't be as many defensive touchdowns. But we just need the OVER 50 here, and that shouldn't be a problem. The Bucs are decimated in the secondary right now, which will allow Matt Ryan to have a big game, especially since he has a healthy Cordarrelle Patterson back to get the ball to. Patterson has been almost as important a player to his team as any player in the NFL this season that's a non-quarterback. It's a Tampa Bay secondary that will be without Richard Sherman, Carlton Davis and Mike Edwards and could be without Jamel Dean. The Bucs got Gronk back on offense and are hitting on all cylinders on that side of the ball. They followed up a 30-point performance against the Giants with 38 points against the Colts last week. They should easily get to 30 or more here, and I think the Falcons are good for at least 20 while trying to pay catch up against a soft Bucs secondary. The OVER is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings, including 5-0 in the last five meetings in Atlanta. They have combined for 50 or more points in 10 of their last 11 meetings. The Bucs are 17-5 OVER in their last 22 games vs. division opponents. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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11-25-21 | Raiders v. Cowboys UNDER 51 | 36-33 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 51 m | Show | |
15* Raiders/Cowboys Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNDER 51 The Raiders are broken offensively since losing Harry Ruggs to injury. They have scored 16 points or fewer in three consecutive games now and it has come against some pretty weak defenses in the Giants, Chiefs and Bengals. They won't do much better here against the Cowboys with an offense that only really features Darren Waller as a decent weapon. The Cowboys have been held to 20 or fewer points in three of their last four. Injuries are really piling up for them on offense as well. Amari Cooper is out, and CeeDee Lamb and Ezekiel Elliott are questionable. But the Cowboys have an improved defense this season that gives up just 21.4 points per game. They have held three of their last four opponents to 19 points or fewer, including the 19 points allowed to the Chiefs last week. The Raiders are also improved defensively this season. They give up just 352.7 yards per game. They have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL and should be able to get after Dak Prescott. They held Joe Burrow and Cincinnati's high-powered offense to just 129 passing yards on 20-of-29 attempts. Three weeks ago they held the Giants to 96 passing yards. They are giving up just 6.1 yards per attempt this season. The UNDER is 4-0 in Cowboys last four games overall. The UNDER is 7-2 in Cowboys last nine November games. The UNDER is 7-3 in Raiders last 10 November games. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday. |
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10-21-21 | Broncos v. Browns OVER 40.5 | 14-17 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
15* Broncos/Browns NFL Total DOMINATOR on OVER 40.5 This is a very low total for any NFL game. But it's definitely low considering the circumstances with the short week that always favors the offenses with less time to prepare. And the fact that these teams aren't familiar with one another being a non-divisional game. I know both teams have a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball, especially the Browns on offense. But I think Case Keenum isn't that much of a downgrade from Baker Mayfield, especially the Mayfield we saw last week on a bum shoulder. Cleveland's defense is terrible and tired. The Browns gave up 47 points and 493 yards to the Chargers two weeks ago and another 37 points to the Cardinals last week. The Broncos haven't been much better of late defensively. They gave up 27 points and 391 yards to the Steelers two weeks ago and 34 points and 446 yards to the Raiders last week. The OVER is 4-1 in Browns last five home games. The OVER is 5-1 in Browns last six against AFC opponents. The OVER is 4-1 in Broncos last five games following a loss. Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday. |
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10-10-21 | Eagles v. Panthers OVER 45 | Top | 21-18 | Loss | -104 | 99 h 34 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Eagles/Panthers OVER 45 The Philadelphia Eagles are clearly an OVER team. They just combined for 62 points with the Dallas Cowboys and 72 points with the Kansas City Chiefs the last two weeks. They won't have any problem combining for 45-plus points with the Carolina Panthers this week. The Eagles have an electric offense with Jalen Hurts and a ton of young skill talent. They are averaging 397.5 yards per game. But their defense has some significant injuries, and as a result they are giving up 26.5 PPG. This is the worst defense the Eagles have had in years. The Panthers are coming alive in Joe Brady's offense in his second season as coordinator. They are averaging 387.5 yards per game this season behind the improved play of Sam Darnold, who already has five rushing touchdowns. He is completing 67.8% of his passes and averaging 8 yards per attempt. Carolina's defense isn't as good as the season-long numbers would suggest. They played three of the worst offenses in the NFL to start the season in the Jets, Saints and Texans. But they met their match last week in a 28-36 loss to the Cowboys in a game that saw 64 combined points. The OVER is 21-9 in Eagles last 30 games as road underdogs. The OVER is 33-16 in Eagles last 49 road games overall. The OVER is 34-17 in Panthers last 51 games after a game where 60 or more points were scored. Take the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-07-21 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 54.5 | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 34 h 56 m | Show |
20* Rams/Seahawks NFC West Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 54.5 The Los Angeles Rams have played two straight high-powered offenses in the Tampa Bay Bucs and Arizona Cardinals. Both games wen over the total, and that has this total against the Seattle Seahawks inflated. There's definitely value in this UNDER Thursday night. Seattle has also played three straight very good offenses in the Titans, Vikings and 49ers. That also has this total inflated as both of these teams have better defenses than the numbers would show to this point. And Seattle plays at a slow pace, averaging just 50 players per game. The Rams only average 58 plays per game on offense. Division games are always played closer to the vest. Teams are more familiar with one another playing each other twice a season. They always tend to be lower-scoring. That has been the case in this series, too. The Rams and Seahawks have combined for 50 or fewer points in four consecutive meetings. They combined for 50, 29, 39 and 40 points in each of the last four meetings, respectively. That's an average of just 39.5 combined points per game, which is 15 points less than this 54.5-point total. The UNDER is 20-7 in Rams last 27 games as favorites. The UNDER is 10-3 in Seahawks last 13 games overall. Seattle is 6-0 UNDER vs. teams that allow 375 or more yards per game over the last three seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. |
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09-30-21 | Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 45.5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 31 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Bengals OVER 45.5 Prime time OVERS have been money makers the last couple seasons. And this game sets up to be an OVER game tonight with these two teams in the Jaguars and Bengals. Both have suspect defenses. The Jaguars have really been poor defensively. They rank 28th in scoring defense at 30.3 points per game and 29th in total defense at 418 yards per game. And they've only played one good offense in the Cardinals, who lite them up for 31 points last week. The other two teams were the Broncos and Texans. The Cincinnati Bengals have good defensive numbers thus far and may be improved on that side of the ball, but they have played two poor offenses in the Bears and Steelers. They did give up 24 points and 403 total yards to the best offense they have faced in the Vikings. The Jaguars have been able to move the football with 395 yards against the Texans and 361 yards against the Cardinals. But they have killed themselves with turnovers, committing 10 of them already in three games. That can also help the OVER by setting up easy scores for the Bengals. Cincinnati does have an elite offense with great skill players. They have played three tough defenses and have fared well against the Vikings, Bears and Steelers. This is a big step down in class for them, and Joe Burrow is primed for his best game of the season. I'm expecting the Bengals to score 30-plus to carry the load on this OVER. Cincinnati is 6-0 OVER in home games with a total of 45.5 or higher over the last three seasons. We are seeing 56.3 combined points per game in this spot. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. |