Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-29-19 | Hornets v. Pistons -7.5 | Top | 110-107 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -7.5 I love the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight. This is a home-and-home situation after these two teams played in Charlotte on Wednesday. The Hornets won that game 102-101 in thrilling fashion. Now the Pistons will want their revenge at home tonight and will clearly be the more motivated team. I believe it leads to a blowout win in Detroit’s favor. The Pistons have been great at home here of late. They beat the Hawks 128-103 as 6-point favorites and topped the Magic 103-88 as 5-point favorites in their two most recent home games. They are 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS at home this season. The Hornets are just 3-7 on the road this season and getting outscored by 9.8 points per game. In their last four road games, the Hornets are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS losing by 17 at Miami, by 7 at Washington, by 10 at Brooklyn and by 36 at Toronto. The Hornets are 7-25 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last three seasons. The Hornets will be playing their 9th game in 15 days, while the Pistons will be playing just their 7th game in 19 days. The Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. Bet the Pistons Friday. |
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11-27-19 | Thunder v. Blazers -2.5 | 119-136 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 The Portland Trail Blazers just got back Damian Lillard from injury. They promptly went on the road and crushed the Bulls 117-94 as 1-point favorites. Now they are back home following a tough six-game road trip and in need of wins. The Blazers should be able to handle their business against a tired Oklahoma City Thunder team that has played four straight grueling nail biters. They lost three straight to the Clippers and Lakers (twice) before barely escaping with a 100-97 win at Golden State on Monday. They’ll now be playing their 4th road game in their last five contests. The Blazers own the Thunder, going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings. And this is a Thunder team that isn’t nearly as good as the one they’ve been up against over the past few seasons. They no longer have Russell Westbrook and Paul George. Portland is 33-16-3 ATS in its last 52 games off a win by more than 10 points. Oklahoma City is 16-36 ATS in its last 52 games off a road win by 3 points or less. The Thunder are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Blazers Wednesday. |
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11-27-19 | Jazz v. Pacers -1.5 | Top | 102-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -1.5 The Indiana Pacers have been flying under the radar over the past month. They are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games overall with their only losses coming to Houston, Milwaukee and Charlotte (by 2). They are getting no respect at home tonight as only 1.5-point favorites over the Utah Jazz. The Pacers are as healthy as they’ve been all season as they have everyone but Victor Oladipo healthy now. It’s a big reason why they are playing so well. And the Pacers will certainly have fresh legs as this will be just their 3rd game in 9 days. Indiana has had Utah’s number in recent seasons. The Pacers are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. They won by 33 at Utah and by 27 at home against the Jazz in their two meetings last year. Plays against underdogs (Utah) - off a road cover where they lost SU as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 58-17 (77.3%) ATS since 1996. Indiana is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home games vs. Western Conference opponents. Bet the Pacers Wednesday. |
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11-26-19 | Clippers v. Mavs +2.5 | 114-99 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
15* Clippers/Mavs NBA TV ANNIIHILATOR on Dallas +2.5 The Dallas Mavericks are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins coming by 7 points or more. And it’s not like they are beating up on cupcakes as they topped the defending champion Raptors 110-102 at home and went on the road and upset the Rockets 137-123 as 5.5-point dogs. Now, the Mavericks will host one of the favorites to win the title in the Los Angeles Clippers, and I think they’ll be up to the challenge. The Clippers have also won five straight, but they’ve been much less impressive with wins by 2, 3 and 3 points. And all five wins came at home. The Clippers are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS on the road this season where they are giving up 119.2 points per game. They have benefited from a very easy home-heavy schedule with 12 games at home compared to just five on the road. Home-court advantage has been huge int his series as the home team is 9-0 SU & 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. The Mavericks are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Clippers. Roll with the Mavericks Tuesday. |
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11-25-19 | Magic v. Pistons -4.5 | Top | 88-103 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -4.5 The Detroit Pistons are as healthy as they’ve been all season. The only key player they are missing now is Reggie Jackson. They should be a good bet in the short term because they are undervalued now after a 5-11 SU & 5-9-2 ATS start this season. Injuries have taken their toll on the Orlando Magic. They are playing without arguably their two best players in Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic, and they are also without PG Michael Carter-Williams. They lost by 16 in Toronto and by 5 in Indiana in their last two games coming in. It’s going to get worse before it gets better for the Pacers until Gordon and Vucevic return. The Magic are 0-6 SU & 2-4 ATS on the road this season. The Pistons are 37-13 SU & 28-18-4 ATS in their last 50 home meetings with the Magic. The home team is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series. Take the Pistons Monday. |
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11-25-19 | Grizzlies +9.5 v. Pacers | 114-126 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 60 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +9.5 I like the value we are getting on the Memphis Grizzlies today. The Pacers would have to win by double-digits to beat us, and I don’t see that happening. The Pacers aren’t a good enough team to be laying double-digits to almost anyone. It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Indiana, which has won nine of its last 12 games coming in. It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Grizzlies, who have lost three straight coming in. But they barely lost 108-109 to the Lakers as 8-point dogs last time out. And now the Grizzlies will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days tonight. Plays on road underdogs (Memphis) - off three or more consecutive losses, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 81-46 (63.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Grizzlies are 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings. Roll with the Grizzlies Monday. |
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11-24-19 | Kings v. Wizards -3.5 | Top | 113-106 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -3.5 The Washington Wizards continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as only 3.5-point home favorites against the injury-ravaged Sacramento Kings tonight. The Wizards are 10-3 ATS this season and have been one of the best covering teams in the league. The Wizards come in playing their best basketball of the season, going 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. They only lost by 7 at Boston as 7.5-point dogs and by 4 at Orlando as 5.5-point dogs. They beat Minnesota by 21 on the road as 5.5-point dogs, topped the Spurs by 6 at home as 2-point dogs and covered in a 7-point win over the Hornets as 6-point home favorites. The Kings are coming off a bad 19-point loss at Brooklyn and things are going to get worse before they get better due to their injuries. They are playing without De’Aaron Fox, Marvin Bagley, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Trevor Ariza right now. The Wizards are 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Kings. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 10-2 SU & 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Bet the Wizards Sunday. |
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11-23-19 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Jazz | Top | 120-128 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans +7.5 The New Orleans Pelicans have gotten healthy finally and are starting to play their best basketball of the season as a result. They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, and they should not be catching 7.5 points to the Utah Jazz given the awful spot for Utah. Indeed, the Jazz will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after needing some late game heroics to beat a bad Golden State team 113-109 as 16-point favorites last night. The Jazz won’t have much left in the tank for the Pelicans, who play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA and will test a Jazz team playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series. The road team is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. The Pelicans pulled the upset in each of their last two trips to Utah, and they haven’t lost by more than 8 points in any of their last six trips to Salt Lake City. Plays on road underdogs (New Orleans) - a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 48-15 (76.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New Orleans) - off a road win, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Pelicans Saturday. |
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11-23-19 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +7.5 | 109-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +7.5 The Memphis Grizzlies are coming off an ugly blowout home loss to the Golden State Warriors, failing to cover the spread by 25.5 points. The betting public wants nothing to do with them now, and this is a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies have had three days off to stew over that loss, and now they’ll be fresh, motivated and ready to go with Lebron James and company coming to town tonight. They will certainly be up for this game, and it’s understandable they thought they could just show up and beat the Warriors. The Lakers are in an awful spot. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a grueling, 130-127 shootout win over the Oklahoma City Thunder on the road last night. Now they have to travel all the way to Memphis and will be playing on tired legs. The Lakers are already overvalued after winning 13 of their last 14 games overall, and we’ll gladly ’sell high’ on them in this flat spot. Plays on home underdogs (Memphis) - revenging a road loss by 10 points or Moree, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS since 1996. The Lakers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Take the Grizzlies Saturday. |
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11-23-19 | Spurs v. Knicks +2.5 | 111-104 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +2.5 The San Antonio Spurs are a complete dumpster fire. They have gone 0-8 SU & 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and are now a league-worst 2-13-1 ATS on the season. It’s not going to get any better for them tonight. The Spurs will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA. They lost 104-115 on the road to the 76ers last night and will be playing their 4th straight road game. Simply put, the Spurs are running on fumes right now. The Knicks have finally gotten healthy and are playing their best basketball of the season coming in. The Knicks are 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. They upset the Mavericks as 7.5-point home dogs and blew out the Cavs by 18 as 5.5-point home favorites. They only lost by a single point to the Hornets, and they gave Philadelphia a battle on the road in a 104-109 road loss as 13-point dogs last time out. Now the Knicks come in on two days’ rest having last played on Wednesday and will be fresh and ready to go. The Spurs will have nothing left in the tank and will lose their 9th straight game tonight. Roll with the Knicks Saturday. |
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11-22-19 | Rockets v. Clippers -5 | Top | 119-122 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
20* Rockets/Clippers ESPN 2-0 Parlay SWEEPER on Los Angeles -5/UNDER 229 Reasons for Clippers: The Clippers want revenge from a 93-102 road loss at Houston on November 13th just nine days ago. Look for them to have their revenge as they get the Rockets at home this time around, plus they have Paul George now with a few games under his belt and feeling confident in his role. The Clippers are 9-1 SU & 6-3 ATS at home this season. They are outscoring opponents by 10.7 points per game at home. It will be a great atmosphere for the Clippers here Friday night. The Rockets are overvalued after going 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last eight games overall against suspect competition. I faded them with success in their 95-105 loss at Denver on Wednesday, and I’m fading them again tonight. Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Houston) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Clippers are 15-5 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons. Bet the Clippers Friday. Reasons for UNDER: These teams are obviously very familiar with one another having played just nine days ago. Familiarity breeds low-scoring games. And that game saw just 195 combined points, and now we have a total of 229, which is 34 points higher. There’s clearly a ton of value with the UNDER. The Clippers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA now with their ability to switch on the perimeter with Patrick Beverly, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Those guys have tremendous wing spans and they are going to give James Harden and Russell Westbrook problems. The Rockets have been very good defensively, too. The UNDER is 9-2 in Rockets last 11 games overall. They have allowed 108 or fewer points in seven of their last nine games. They are missing Eric Gordon on offense and that has certainly hurt their floor spacing on that end. Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA Clippers) - after going under the total by 18 or more points in their last three games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 30-10 (75%) since 1996. Houston is 10-1 UNDER in road games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 6-plus points per game over the last three seasons. The UNDER is 20-6 in Rockets last 26 road games, including 7-0 in November road games. The UNDER is 8-2 in Clippers last 10 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. |
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11-21-19 | Blazers v. Bucks -12 | 129-137 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
15* Blazers/Bucks TNT ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee -12 The Milwaukee Bucks are back at it again this season challenging to be the best team in the NBA in the regular season. They are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall with five of those wins coming by double-digits and seven of them by 8 points or more. They are blowing teams in out on a regular basis, which is why I don’t mind laying this number with them Thursday. That’s especially the case when you consider they are up against a banged-up Blazers team that will be playing without Damian Lillard tonight. They were already without Just Nurkic and Zach Collins, and they could be without both Hassan Whiteside and Anfernee Simons, who are both questionable. The Blazers have been a real dumpster fire of late, going 2-8 SU & 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with five losses by 8 points or more. Their last two games were really dreadful as they lost by 24 at Houston and by 11 at New Orleans. And they just recently lost Lillard to injury prior to that Pelicans game, so they were playing poorly with him, and now they’ll be even worse without his 28.6 points and 7.1 assists per game. The Bucks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. The Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. Portland is 0-4-2 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Bucks are 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Blazers, including a 143-100 home win last year. Roll with the Bucks Thursday. |
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11-20-19 | Celtics +6 v. Clippers | 104-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
15* Celtics/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Boston +6 The Boston Celtics are 11-2 this season and still getting no respect from oddsmakers tonight as 6-point road underdogs to the Los Angeles Clippers. It’s a Celtics team that has found their stride with Kemba Walker running the show and they look like one of the best teams in the NBA currently. The Clippers could be without Kawhi Leonard again tonight as he has missed two consecutive games with a left knee contusion. They were barely able to escape with a 90-88 home victory over the Thunder as 7.5-point home favorites on Monday without him. And they certainly won’t be able to put away the Celtics by margin with or without him tonight. Plays against home favorites (LA Clippers) - in non-conference games, off a home non-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 74-36 (67.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Boston is 14-2 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog over the last three seasons. The Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Celtics Wednesday. |
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11-20-19 | Rockets v. Nuggets -1 | Top | 95-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Nuggets -1 The Houston Rockets are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall. Their run comes to an end tonight against a Denver Nuggets team that will be up to the challenge. The Rockets have been fasting on a pretty weak schedule as their eight wins have come against the Grizzlies, Warriors, Bulls, Pelicans, Clippers, Pacers, Timberwolves and Blazers. This will be their toughest challenge in quite some time against a Nuggets team that has won six of their last seven overall coming in as well. The Nuggets had the best home record in the NBA last season, and the Pepsi Center is never an easy place to play thanks to the altitude. Now we get a fresh Nuggets team playing just their 2nd game in 6 days, while the Rockets will be playing their 4th game in 6 days. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings. The Nuggets are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet the Nuggets Wednesday. |
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11-19-19 | Warriors v. Grizzlies -6.5 | 114-95 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 The Golden State Warriors might just be the worst team in the NBA now. They are 2-12 this season and are without their top three scorers in Steph Curry, D’Angelo Russell and Klay Thompson. There’s just not a lot to like about this team moving forward. The Memphis Grizzlies are starting to gel as a team. They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with upset road wins over the Spurs as 10.5-point dogs and Hornets as 2.5-point dogs, as well as an upset home win over the Jazz as 8-point dogs. The Grizzlies have scored 115.1 points per game on 47.7% shooting at home this season. They’ll be up against a Warriors team that gives up 119.0 points per game and 48% shooting overall, including 119.9 points per game and 48.8% shooting on the road. Golden State is 1-6 on the highway and getting outscored by 11.5 points per game. The Warriors are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Golden State is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 games overall. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Roll with the Grizzlies Tuesday. |
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11-18-19 | Bucks v. Bulls +9 | Top | 115-101 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +9 I like the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight. They will be out for revenge from a 115-124 loss at Milwaukee as 11.5-point dogs on Thursday. Now they get a shot at revenge just four days later and are at home this time around catching 9 points. It’s pretty amazing the Bulls were able to stay with 9 points of the Bucks on the road while shooting just 40.9% as a team. I have to think they are going to have a better shooting night this time around, and I have a hard time believing the Bucks are going to get to the free throw line a ridiculous 47 times again. Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Milwaukee) - after having won five or six of their last seven games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 67-32 (67.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Bulls Monday. |
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11-17-19 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies +7 | 131-114 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +7 This young Grizzlies team has really turned it around after a slow start this season and they’re becoming fun to watch because they are one of the best offensive teams in the NBA. The Grizzlies are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with upset wins over the Spurs, Hornets and Jazz as combined 21-point dogs. The Denver Nuggets have been overvalued all season. Despite being 8-3 SU, they are just 3-6-2 ATS with a lot of close wins. Indeed, seven of their eight wins have come by 8 points or fewer. And if they do get a win Sunday over the Grizzlies, I believe it will be by 7 points or less. This has been a closely-contested series with each of the last five meetings decide by 7 points or less. The Nuggets haven’t beaten the Grizzlies by more than 6 points in any of the last 15 meetings in Memphis. That makes for a 15-0 system backing Memphis pertaining to this 7-point spread tonight. Take the Grizzlies Sunday. |
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11-17-19 | Celtics -3 v. Kings | 99-100 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -3 The Boston Celtics have won 10 straight and will be highly motivated to keep this winning streak going as long as they can. I think we are getting them cheap here against the Sacramento Kings as only 3-point road favorites. The Kings are in a hangover spot off their tough 2-point loss to the Lakers on Friday. And this is a Kings team getting a lot of respect now after playing the Lakers close and covering six in a row coming in. But they are without De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley, and I just don’t think they can keep up their good play without Fox especially. The Celtics are 7-1 SU in their last eight meetings with the Kings, and their domination in this series continues today. Sacramento is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet the Celtics Sunday. |
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11-16-19 | Nets v. Bulls -2 | 117-111 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Bulls -2 The Chicago Bulls are playing much better of late after a slow start. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and starting to live up to the lofty expectations they had prior to the season. This is a team with so much talent that they simply cannot stay down for long. After hanging tough with Milwaukee in a losing effort on the road last time out, the Bulls return home here to face the reeling, banged up Brooklyn Nets. The Nets have lost three straight coming in and are in a very tough spot here. They will be playing their 5th straight road game, and it’s clear they are running out of gas. Making matters worse for the Nets is that they just recently lost starter Caris LeVert to a thumb injury. And Kyrie Irving is trying to play through a shoulder injury that is clearly hampering him. Irving has been well below his season average of 28.5 PPG during the three-game losing streak. He had 17 against Denver, 27 against Utah, and 15 against Phoenix. Irving is questionable to play tonight as well. The Nets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Brooklyn is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games overall. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. Look for the Bulls to bounce back with a win and cover tonight at home. Roll with the Bulls Saturday. |
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11-15-19 | Jazz v. Grizzlies +7.5 | Top | 106-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
20* Jazz/Grizzlies ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Memphis +7.5 The Memphis Grizzlies are starting to play well here having won three of their last five with upset wins over Minnesota (137-121) as 3.5-point home dogs, San Antonio (113-109) as 10.5-point road dogs and Charlotte (119-117) as 2.5-point road dogs. This young team is growing together quickly and playing tremendous on the offensive end, shooting 50.6% or better in four of their last five games coming in. The Utah Jazz came into the season getting a ton of publicity for the moves they made in the offseason. They were a popular dark horse title contender pick in the West. But they’ve struggled to live up to expectations, going 8-3 SU but 4-7 ATS on the season. That includes a 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS record in road games this year. Their only road cover came against the hapless Golden State Warriors. I think Mike Conley’s feelings toward Memphis work against him here. He loves the city of Memphis as they gave him every opportunity to be a star. This will be his first time playing in Memphis as an opponent. I don’t see it going well for him, and I think the Grizzlies have the motivational edge because of it. The Grizzlies are 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Jazz. Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - after going under the total by 54 or more points in their last 10 games, in the first half of the season are 42-13 (76.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Grizzlies Friday. |
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11-14-19 | Mavs -7.5 v. Knicks | 103-106 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
15* Mavs/Knicks TNT ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -7.5 The Dallas Mavericks want revenge from a 102-106 home loss to the New York Knicks on November 8th as 10.5-point favorites. They don’t even have to wait a week to get their revenge as now they play the Knicks on the road here as 7.5-point favorites on November 14th. I also like the fact that the Mavericks are coming off a loss in Boston to add to their motivation. They come in on two days’ rest as well so they are fresh and ready to go. Plus, the Mavericks are fully healthy right now and will be primed for a big effort. The Knicks are 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. Five of those six losses came by 12 points or more, so they are used to getting blown out on the regular. And there’s been serious talks about firing their head coach David Fizdale in the media. It’s just more of the same in New York this season. Dallas is 21-9 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons. The Mavericks are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Knicks are 21-45 ATS in their last 66 home games. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to New York. Take the Mavericks Thursday. |
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11-13-19 | Clippers +2.5 v. Rockets | Top | 93-102 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
20* Clippers/Rockets ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles +2.5 The Los Angeles Clippers are the best team in the NBA from what I’ve seen thus far when Kawhi Leonard is on the floor. They are 7-1 in games that he has played, and he’s expected to play tonight against the Houston Rockets despite this being a back-to-back situation with a game against the Pelicans tomorrow. Leonard is averaging 26.0 points, 8.5 rebounds and 5.9 assists this season to pick up right where he left off. Both Lou Williams (22.3 PPG, 5.6 APG) and Matrezl Harrell (19.8 PPG, 7.1 RPG) have taken their games to the next level. And guys like Ivaca Zubac, JayMychal Green and Patrick Beverley are all playing well. The Houston Rockets have some injury issues right now that will slow them down in the immediate future. Eric Gordon won’t be back until late December after having knee surgery. They were already without Gerald Green and Nene, and now Danuel House Jr. is out tonight with a back injury. It’s a team that already lacks depth due to the massive contracts on the roster, and now they won’t have the depth to match the Clippers tonight. The Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. The Rockets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games playing on one days’ rest. Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games. The Clippers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings. Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Houston. Take the Clippers Wednesday. |
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11-13-19 | 76ers v. Magic -1 | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -1 Don’t be surprised if the Philadelphia 76ers decide to rest a star player or two tonight after a grueling 98-97 home win over Cleveland as 11-point favorites last night. They’ll now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 12 days. The Orlando Magic are rested and ready to go coming in on two days’ rest after last playing on Sunday. The Magic are also highly motivated for a win tonight after dropping five of their last six games overall. They are a respectable 3-3 at home this season compared to 0-4 on the road. Home-court advantage was huge in this series last season as the home team went 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS. The Magic won both home meetings with the 76ers 119-98 as 2-point favorites and 111-106 as 6-point dogs. The home team is also 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings. Orlando is 18-8-1 ATS in its last 27 games vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents. Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS in its last six vs. NBA Southeast Division foes. The 76ers are 11-25 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. Philadelphia is 29-50 ATS in its last 79 games off a close home win by 3 points or less. Plays against any team (Philadelphia) - playing its 3rd game in 4 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 71-35 (67%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Magic Wednesday. |
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11-12-19 | Cavs +10 v. 76ers | Top | 97-98 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Cavaliers +10 The Philadelphia 76ers are without Al Horford and could be without Ben Simmons due to a shoulder injury yet again tonight. It’s no wonder they have lost three of their last four coming in with their only win coming by 8 over the Hornets at home as 14-point favorites. They should not be double-digit favorites over the Cavaliers tonight. Cleveland is one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. The Cavaliers are 4-5 SU & 5-2-2 ATS in the first year under John Beilein. They are coming off two straight upset road wins in blowout fashion over the Wizards by 13 and the Knicks by 21. Veterans Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson are both healthy and playing great basketball, while Collin Sexton, Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr. are all improved after playing together last year. And rookie Darius Garland is getting acclimated to playing in the NBA while playing alongside Sexton in the backcourt. The Cavaliers are 2-2 SU but 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings at Philadelphia. They were underdogs in all four and won outright as 13-point dogs and outright as 2-point dogs. They also covered as 15-point dogs in a 7-point loss and as 3.5-point dogs in a 2-point loss. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Cavaliers Tuesday. |
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11-11-19 | Rockets v. Pelicans +6 | Top | 122-116 | Push | 0 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +6 The New Orleans Pelicans are showing great value as 6-point home underdogs to the Houston Rockets tonight. The Pelicans are better than their 2-7 record would indicate as they have suffered several close losses this season. Indeed, six of the Pelicans’ seven losses have come by 11 points or fewer. They got on track last time out with a 115-110 road win over Charlotte. Look for them to give Houston a run for its money tonight and possibly pull off the upset. The chemistry for the Rockets hasn’t been great this season with the addition of Russell Westbrook. They have actually played better without him. Their defense has taken a huge step back as they are giving up 118.7 points per game this season. They are only shooting 44% as a team as well. The Rockets are 3-7 ATS in hitter last 10 games overall. Houston is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Monday games. Roll with the Pelicans Monday. |
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11-10-19 | Pacers v. Magic -3.5 | 109-102 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic -3.5 The Orlando Magic are undervalued right now after a 3-6 start against a brutal schedule. They have handled the teams they should handle in Cleveland, New York and Memphis by winning those three games by a combined 53 points. However, the Magic have lost to almost all the tough teams they have faced. They lost on the road to Dallas, OKC, Toronto and Atlanta, and also lost at home to Milwaukee and Denver. Indiana is classified as a team they should beat in my book. That’s especially the case with the injuries the Pacers are dealing with right now. They are without three starters in Victor Oladipo, Myles Turner and Jeremy Lamb. The Magic went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their final three meetings with the Pacers last season. The Pacers are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 road games. Indiana is 4-13-1 ATS in its last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Magic are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 home games. Orlando is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game. Bet the Magic Sunday. |
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11-09-19 | Mavs -3 v. Grizzlies | 138-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Dallas Mavericks -3 The Dallas Mavericks are coming off an upset loss to the New York Knicks last night. They will be in a bad mood and will come out highly motivated tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies. I think we are getting them at a discount after the upset loss. The Grizzlies are just 2-6 this season and have been blown out consistently with all six losses coming by 7 points or more. The Grizzlies will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after an 86-116 loss in Orlando last night. They’ll be playing their 5th game in 8 days as well, while the Mavericks will be playing just their 3rd game in 6 days. Plays on road favorites (Dallas) - a good team with a +3 to +7 PPG differential against a terrible team with a -7 PPG differential or worse, after a combined score of 205 points or more in four straight games are 32-9 (78%) ATS since 1996. The Mavericks are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 road games. Dallas is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss. The Grizzlies are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games when playing on zero days’ rest. Take the Mavericks Saturday. |
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11-08-19 | Heat +8 v. Lakers | 80-95 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
15* Heat/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami +8 No team has been more impressive than the Miami Heat in the first two weeks of the season. The Heat have gone 6-2 SU & 6-1-1 ATS and have been greatly undervalued night in and night out. I believe they are undervalued yet again here catching 8 points against the Los Angeles Lakers. I realize the Heat are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but this is a deep team that can handle it better than most. And that is factored into the line too much. The Heat made easy work of the Suns 124-108 last night and didn’t have to play their starters too many minutes. They’ll won’t be tired at all as they’ll get up to face the Lakers in Staples Center. I think the Lakers are being overvalued now after going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. They nearly lost in Chicago last time out, needing to erase a 13-point deficit in the fourth quarter to win as 7-point favorites. This game will go down to the wire as well. The Lakers may win, but they will not cover. Plays against favorites (LA Lakers) - off two or more consecutive road wins, in a game involving two teams that win 75% or more of their games are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS since 1996. The Lakers are 5-17 ATS off two or more consecutive road games over the last two seasons. The Heat are 41-23 ATS as road underdogs over the last three years. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the Heat Friday. |
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11-08-19 | 76ers v. Nuggets -5 | Top | 97-100 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets -5 The Philadelphia 76ers lost Ben Simmons to a shoulder injury in a loss to the Jazz on Wednesday. He’ll miss at least the next two games, and I’m lining up to fade them in the immediate future. I think we are getting the Nuggets cheap at home here against the 76ers. Denver is off to a 5-2 start this season and coming off a 109-89 home win over Miami. That was back on Tuesday, so the Nuggets are rested and ready to go working on two days’ rest. They had the best home record in the NBA last season and continue to have a tremendous home-court advantage this year. The 76ers got off to a 5-0 start against a soft schedule but have since dropped two straight road games at Phoenix and at Utah. Now they’ll actually be playing their 4th road game in 7 days, which is a tough spot for any team in the NBA. It makes it even worse for them now that they don’t have their floor general in Simmons running the show. The home team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings winning by 7, 16 and 19 points. The Nuggets are 22-11 ATS in home games off a win over the last two seasons. Denver is 19-7 ATS in home games off an ATS win over the last two years. Take the Nuggets Friday. |
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11-07-19 | Celtics v. Hornets +7.5 | Top | 108-87 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
20* Celtics/Hornets TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Charlotte +7.5 The Charlotte Hornets were tabbed as the worst team in the NBA by almost everyone coming into the season. As a result, there has been value on them in the early going, and there’s no question they are better than expected. The Hornets are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS this season. The Hornets come in having won three straight and having covered four straight. I think they will be out to prove something tonight against their former teammate in Kemba Walker, who chose the Celtics over them. Terry Rozier came over from the Celtics to replace Walker, and he’ll be playing with a chip on his shoulder as well. I love the way the Hornets are playing team basketball and sharing the rock. Both Devonte Graham (17.3 PPG, 6.7 APG) and Rozier (16.9 PPG, 5.6 APG) have been the catalysts. P.J. Washington (15.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG) has been one of the best rookies in the NBA and is shooting 46.7% from 3-point range. Miles Bridges (13.3 PPG) and Dwayne Bacon (11.1 PPG) are both greatly improved over last year, and Cody Zeller (12.8 PPG, 10.8 RPG) provides some veteran leadership and consistent double-doubles. The Celtics come in overvalued after having won five straight since a season-opening loss to the 76ers. But they have been far from dominant with only two of their wins coming by more than 6 points. They only beat the Knicks 104-102 as 9-point home favorites and the Cavs 119-113 as 6-point road favorites in their last two games. The Hornets are better than both those teams and should be able to stay within this 7.5-point spread at home. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The Hornets won 124-117 as 4-point dogs and 117-112 as 3.5-point dogs in their last two home meetings with the Celtics. Roll with the Hornets Thursday. |
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11-06-19 | 76ers v. Jazz -2 | Top | 104-106 | Push | 0 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -2 The Utah Jazz come in highly motivated for a win Wednesday night. They are coming off two straight road losses to the Kings and Clippers. But now they are back home where they are 3-0 this season and winning by 17.0 points per game. Salt Lake City is one of the biggest home-court advantages in the entire NBA. The Jazz also come in rested and ready to go on two days’ rest since last playing the Clippers on Sunday. They have owned the 76ers at home throughout the years, going 18-4 SU in the last 22 meetings in Salt Lake City. The 76ers are 5-1 and overvalued as a result. They just lost 109-114 at Phoenix in their last road game. Yes, they are 3-1 on the road this season, but their three wins came by 6 over Detroit, by 2 over Atlanta and by 1 over Portland. They needed huge comebacks against both the Hawks and Blazers. They won’t be so fortunate tonight against the motivated, rested Jazz. Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Utah) - after having lost two of their last three games, a marginal winning tam (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 63-29 (68.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Jazz are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a loss. Bet the Jazz Wednesday. |
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11-05-19 | Pacers v. Hornets +3.5 | 120-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte Hornets +3.5 Most people tabbed the Charlotte Hornets as the worst team in the NBA coming into the season. As a result, there has been some value in backing them as the Hornets have opened 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS. They are certainly better than they were getting credit for coming into the year. The Hornets are doing a great job of playing team basketball and sharing the ball. They have six players averaging at least 12.5 points per game this season. Terry Rozier has been an adequate replacement for Kemba Walker, PJ Washington is one of the best rookies in the NBA, and Devonte Graham, Cody Zeller, Dwayne Bacon and Miles Bridges have all made big jumps this season. Plus, they still have Marvin Williams and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to lock it down defensively. The Indiana Pacers come in overvalued off three straight wins. Two of those came at home against the Cavs and Bulls, while the other was a road win at Brooklyn. The Pacers have some serious injury concerns right now playing without their two best players in Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner, plus Domantas Sabonis is questionable. The Hornets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven against Eastern Conference opponents. The home team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The Hornets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home meetings with the Pacers. Take the Hornets Tuesday. |
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11-04-19 | Pistons v. Wizards -2.5 | Top | 99-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -2.5 The Washington Wizards came into the season tabbed as one of the worst teams in the NBA. As a result, they were undervalued to start the season and remain undervalued right now. They are 1-4 SU but 4-1 ATS and could easily have more wins than they do. Two of their losses came by a combined 3 points to San Antonio (122-124) as 11.5-point road dogs and Houston (158-159) as 8-point home dogs. They also covered as 9-point dogs in an 8-point loss at Dallas and upset Oklahoma City by 12 as 8.5-point road dogs. Their only poor performance came at home against Minnesota in the game after the deflating loss to the Rockets. Now, I expect the Wizards to be highly motivated to get their second win of the season tonight at home against the Pistons. The Pistons have already played seven games compared to five for Washington. Detroit will be playing its 8th game in 13 days to start the season and its 3rd game in 4 days. Making matters worse for the Pistons is that they are so banged up right now. They are without starters Blake Griffin and Reggie Jackson. Now they are without both Derrick Rose and Tim Frazier, the two backup guards to Jackson. They are in a world of hurt right now due to these injuries and lack of rest. The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series, winning by an average of 11.3 points per game. The home team is also 11-2 SU in the last 13 meetings. The Pistons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games playing on one days’ rest. The Wizards are 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Pistons. Take the Wizards Monday. |
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11-03-19 | Jazz v. Clippers -4 | Top | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
20* Jazz/Clippers NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4 I love the spot for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. They want revenge from a 96-110 loss in Utah on October 30th. But Kawhi Leonard didn’t play in that game, and he is expected to play tonight. Look for the Clippers to get their revenge in this one. The Clippers are 3-0 at home this season outscoring opponents by 10.4 points per game. They come in rested and ready to go on two days’ rest having last played on Thursday. Expect a big effort from them here tonight, especially since they have another two days off after this. The Jazz just haven’t been very impressive this season. They are 4-2, but their four wins have come against the Thunder, Kings, Suns and Clippers (minus Leonard). They also lost to the Kings and lost to the Lakers on the road, going 1-2 in road games with their only win coming by a single point over the Suns. The home team has won three straight and five of the last six meetings in this series. The Jazz are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. Plays on favorites (LA Clippers) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, in a game involving two teams that had marginal winning records (51% to 60%) last season are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1996. Bet the Clippers Sunday. |
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11-02-19 | Hornets +1 v. Warriors | Top | 93-87 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets +1 Wrong team favored here. The Golden State Warriors are now 2000-1 to win the NBA title. Let that sink in for a minute. They are literally the worst team in the NBA right now, and I don’t even think it’s really that close. They are fade material for the time being. No Kevin Durant. No Klay Thompson. And now now Stephen Curry. Plus, Kevon Looney has been out with a hamstring injury, and Draymond Green is battling a back injury. The Warriors just can’t catch a break. Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 127-110 home loss to the San Antonio Spurs last night. Worse yet, it will be their 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA. Their lack of depth will really be felt tonight. Meanwhile, the Charlotte Hornets come in on two days’ rest after last playing on Wednesday in a 118-111 road win over the Sacramento Kings. Most people tabbed the Hornets as the worst team in the NBA coming into the season, but that clearly hasn’t been the case. And I think they are undervalued for the time being due to the low preseason expectations. The Hornets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Charlotte is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games. The Warriors are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Golden State is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games playing on zero days’ rest. The Warriors are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 home games. The road team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. Bet the Hornets Saturday. |
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11-01-19 | Pistons v. Bulls -3 | Top | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -3 The Chicago Bulls were a popular sleeper team coming into the season. They were clearly overvalued as they have now been favored in four of their five games, including in all four of their road games. This team never used to be favored on the road, which shows just how overvalued they were. Now, the Bulls are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS and the betting public doesn’t want much to do with them. It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Bulls tonight. They have played four of their five games on the road with their only home game coming against the defending champion Raptors. Now the Bulls get a team they can handle in the Detroit Pistons. The Pistons are 2-3 this season with their only two wins both coming against the lowly Indiana Pacers. Their three losses have come by a combined 35 points. The Pistons are without their two best players in Blake Griffin and Reggie Jackson, and they could be without Markieff Morris, who is questionable. Meanwhile, the Bulls are 100% healthy right now. Detroit is 5-16 ATS after failing to cover three of their last four games against the spread over the last two seasons. The Pistons are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games overall. Detroit is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a loss by more than 10 points. The home team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Take the Bulls Friday. |
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10-30-19 | Rockets v. Wizards +8 | 159-158 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +8 The Washington Wizards have really impressed me this season thus far. They are 1-2 SU but 3-0 ATS despite playing their first three games on the road. Now they play their home opener here Wednesday and come in on three days’ rest having last played on Sunday, so they’ll be ready to go tonight. Washington only lost by 8 at Dallas as 9-point dogs in their opener. They pulled the 97-85 upset at Oklahoma City as 8.5-point dogs. And the very next night they gave the Spurs all they could handle in a 122-124 loss as 11.5-point dogs. The Wizards are playing great team basketball with eight players averaging at least 10 points per game. The Houston Rockets are clearly one of the most overrated teams in the NBA in the early going. They are 0-3 ATS despite playing their first three games at home. They lost outright to the Bucks, barely beat the Pelicans by 3 as 12-point favorites, and also barely beat the Thunder by 4 as 10-point favorites. The home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The Wizards are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Western Conference opponents. Washington is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 home games after a combined score of 245 points or more. Roll with the Wizards Wednesday. |
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10-30-19 | Pacers v. Nets -3 | 118-108 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -3 The Indiana Pacers are one of the worst teams in the NBA. They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS with their three losses coming to the Pistons (twice) and Cavaliers. That’s a Pistons team playing without Blake Griffin, and they were without Reggie Jackson in the second meeting. And it’s a Cavaliers team that is one of the worst in the NBA. The Nets come in on two days’ rest and highly motivated for a win today. They have opened 1-2, but could easily be 3-0 as both of their losses have come by a single point. I think we are getting them at a tremendous value as only 3-point home favorites here Wednesday. Plays on favorites (Brooklyn) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, first six games of the season, a playoff team from last season who lost four or more of their last five games are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1996. Indiana is 7-18 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the last two seasons. Brooklyn is 39-20 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 5 days over the last three years. The Pacers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Indiana is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents. The Nets are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games when playing on two days’ rest. Take the Nets Wednesday. |
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10-30-19 | Wolves +7.5 v. 76ers | Top | 95-117 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota Timberwolves +7.5 The Minnesota Timberwolves continue to get no respect from oddsmakers here as 7.5-point road underdogs to the Philadelphia 76ers. They have opened 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS this season and are clearly one of the most underrated teams int he NBA in the early going. I just don’t trust the Philadelphia 76ers all that much to lay big numbers. They are 3-0, but two of their wins have come by 6 points or less to the Pistons and Hawks, two teams in the bottom half of the NBA. The rank just 19th in offensive efficiency and don’t have many shooters, so they are going to go on stretches where points are hard to come by. The Timberwolves are taking advantage of their youth this season and rank 11th in pace. They rank 4th in offensive efficiency, scoring 111 points per 100 possessions. They are also 11th in defensive efficiency, and it helps that they have a healthy Robert Covington and drafted Jarrett Culver, giving them two of the best wing defenders in the NBA. The Timberwolves come in on two days’ rest, so they will be ready to go tonight. Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games. Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday. |
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10-29-19 | Grizzlies +12 v. Lakers | Top | 91-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
20* Grizzlies/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +12 The Memphis Grizzlies are a fun team this year because they actually have some scorers now, and they still play great defense. They are playing great team basketball in the early going as they have seven players averaging at least 10.7 points per game. Ja Morant is the real deal, averaging 18 points, 6 assists and 3.7 rebounds per game. Jaren Jackson Jr. is his sidekick, averaging 17.3 points and 6.7 rebounds. And I like the role players in Jonas Valanciunas, Dillon Brooks, Brandon Clarke, Jae Crowder, Solomon Hill, Kyle Anderson and Tyus Jones. The Lakers are simply laying too many points tonight. They are overvalued coming off back-to-back wins and covers over Utah and Charlotte at home. They will be without Kyle Kuzma and could be without Raton Rondo. And I like the fact that Jaren Jackson Jr. is a great defender and will make Anthony Davis work for everything he gets. The Grizzlies are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Lakers, including outright wins as underdogs in their last two trips to Los Angeles. The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. The Lakers are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 against teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game by their opponents over the last two seasons. Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday. |
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10-29-19 | Hawks +8 v. Heat | 97-112 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
15* Hawks/Heat NBA TV No-Brainer on Atlanta +8 The Atlanta Hawks are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS this season and one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA to start the year. They should be 3-0 as they led basically the entire way against the 76ers last night but came up short with a 103-105 loss as 5.5-point home dogs. They missed a shot at the buzzer that would have won it. I actually like the fact that they lost that game because they will come back highly motivated for a victory tonight. And I’m not concerned at all about the Hawks playing the 2nd of a back-to-back this early in the season because they are a young team with young legs built for it. They have tremendous young talent in Trae Young (34 PPG, 9 APG), John Collins (14.3 PPG, 10 RPG) and De’Andre Hunter (11.3 PPG) leading the way. I think this line is inflated due to Jimmy Butler making his season debut for the Heat tonight following the birth of a child. Butler has been a cancer in his recent stops in Minnesota and Philadelphia. The ball sticks to him, which won’t allow the Heat to play the nice team basketball they’ve been playing up to this point en route to a 2-1 start. The Hawks are 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Heat. All four wins came outright as underdogs, and two of the losses came by a combined 4 points. The Hawks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games, and 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games overall. Atlanta is 31-16 ATS off a home loss over the last three seasons. Take the Hawks Tuesday. |
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10-28-19 | Warriors v. Pelicans -4 | 134-123 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -4 The New Orleans Pelicans could easily be 3-0 instead of 0-3. They led the entire game against the Raptors on the road in the opener before losing by 8 in overtime. They played the Mavericks tough in their second game and lost 116-123. And last time out on Saturday they only lost 123-126 on the road at Houston as 12-point dogs. The Golden State Warriors haven’t even come close to winning. They lost 122-141 in their home opener to the Clippers. And yesterday they got crushed on the road 92-120 by a bad Oklahoma City Thunder team. So they’ll now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. The problem for the Warriors is that they don’t have any scorers outside Stephen Curry and De’Angelo Russell. And Russell isn’t off to a promising start in his first season with the Warriors. They have no depth, and they really miss Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant. They also have no inside game as both Kevon Looney and Willie Cauley-Stein are out. And they play no defense, ranking dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency by a wide margin. The Pelicans rank 6th in offensive efficiency and will test this porous Golden State defense. The Warriors are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. New Orleans is 8-0 ATS in its last eight Monday games. Take the Pelicans Monday. |
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10-28-19 | 76ers v. Hawks +5 | 105-103 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Hawks +5 The Atlanta Hawks are getting zero respect early in the season. They went on the road as underdogs and crushed the Pistons 117-100 in their first game. And they upset the Magic 103-99 in their home opener on Saturday. Now the Hawks are once again underdogs to the Philadelphia 76ers. It’s a 76ers team that could be without Joel Embiid, who is battling an ankle injury. The 76ers have opened 2-0 with a good win over Boston in their opener, but they needed a comeback win against the Pistons to beat them 117-111 on the road. That’s a Pistons team that was playing without both Blake Griffin and Reggie Jackson, arguably their two best players. The Hawks rank 7th in offensive efficiency and 10th in defensive efficiency thus far through two games. They are shooting 51.2% and giving up just 38% as a team. Trae Young is averaging 38.5 points and 9.0 assists as he appears to be building off the tremendous second half last year. And they drafted De’Andre Hunter to improve their defense and guard the opposing team’s best player. He is also shooting 61.5% from the floor and 50% from 3 in the early going. Philadelphia is 4-14 ATS after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last two seasons. The 76ers are also 9-23 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two years. Atlanta is 27-13 ATS after playing a home game over the last two seasons. The Hawks went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS against the 76ers last season, upsetting them as 4.5, 7.5 and 10-point dogs in the three meetings. Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home meetings with Philadelphia. Roll with the Hawks Monday. |
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10-27-19 | Heat v. Wolves -6.5 | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5 It’s a tough spot for the Miami Heat tonight. They erased a 17-point halftime deficit yesterday against the Bucks and came back to force overtime. They eventually won 131-126 as 11.5-point dogs in the extra session. Now, this is obviously a letdown spot, but they’ll be pretty tired playing the 2nd of a back-to-back off an OT game. The Timberwolves will test the fatigue factor for the Heat. They ranked 1st in pace in the preseason and are currently 8th in pace through two games of the regular season. This is a young team, and they’ve stated they want to get up and down the floor this year to take advantage of their youth. So far so good for the Timberwolves, who are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS with two road wins over the Nets and Hornets. Fans should be pretty excited and turn out for their home opener today against the Heat. It’s their only home game in their first five games this season, so look for them to take advantage. Bet the Timberwolves Sunday. |
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10-26-19 | Clippers -9 v. Suns | Top | 122-130 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
20* Clippers/Suns NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -9 I don’t even think it’s an overreaction to say that the Clippers are the best team in the Western Conference from what we’ve seen from them so far. They beat the Lakers 112-102 in their home opener, then went on the road Thursday and crushed the Warriors 141-122. Not only do the Clippers have a great starting lineup led by Leonard, Beverly and the underrated duo of Shamet and Zubac, but they clearly probably have the best bench in the league. Their bench scored 60 points against the Lakers and following it up with 68 against the Warriors. That’s a mind-blowing 128 bench points in two games. It’s scary to think that they are doing this without Paul George. The Phoenix Suns are in an awful spot tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. Not only that, but they went to overtime against Denver on the road in the altitude last night. They won’t have much left in the tank, especially since they’ll be without DeAndre Ayton again tonight. The Clippers already own the Suns, going 12-0 SU & 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings. A whopping 10 of those wins came by double-digits. And now the Clippers have the best team they’ve ever had, while the Suns are still the same old Suns. Bet the Clippers Saturday. |
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10-26-19 | Raptors v. Bulls +3.5 | 108-84 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +3.5 The Chicago Bulls are a young team that can handle these back-to-back situations better than most. I love their young, talented roster, and they really should be 2-0. They lost 125-126 at Charlotte only after the Hornets made a ridiculous 23-of-44 from 3-point range. But they came back and won 110-102 at Memphis last night. The Raptors lost Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green from last year. They just won’t be as good this year, and they should be 0-2. They trailed almost the entire way against the Pelicans in their home opener, needing overtime to beat them while getting a fluky cover as 7-point favorites. And last night they lost to the rival Celtics 106-112 on the road and now will be on the road again for the 2nd of a back-to-back. I think that affects the Raptors worse because they have several older players in Lowry, Gasol and Ibaka who play big minutes and will need to be limited here. Fans will be excited for the home opener for the Bulls and they’ll pack the United Center tonight. It should be a great atmosphere for a fan base starting for a winner, and the Bulls are very close to turning the corner with the talent they have stockpiled. Chicago is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 meetings with Toronto. Take the Bulls Saturday. |
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10-26-19 | Heat v. Bucks -10.5 | 131-126 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -10.5 The Miami Heat are going to be without Jimmy Butler, Dion Waiters and James Johnson tonight. They were able to overcome the loss of these three in their opener, winning 120-101 over the Grizzlies at home. But that was a misleading final as the Grizzlies led the entire way, and it took a crazy 26-1 run in the 4th by the Heat to beat them. Now, the Heat take a big step on in class on the road against the team that I believe is the best in the Eastern Conference in the Milwaukee Bucks. It’s a Bucks team that returned almost everyone from last year and also added in Wesley Matthews, Robin Lopez and Kyle Korver. And unlike the Heat, they are completely healthy. The Bucks own the Heat. They won their final three meetings last season against the Heat by 38, 15 and 29 points. Those 38 and 29-point wins came at home, and I expect another blowout here in their home opener in what will be a great atmosphere for a game in Milwaukee tonight. The Heat are 3-13 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons. The Bucks are 37-17-2 ATS in their last 56 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Bet the Bucks Saturday. |
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10-25-19 | Raptors v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2.5 The Boston Celtics are highly motivated for a win in their home opener. They lost on the road to the 76ers to open the season Wednesday and now they welcome the defending champs to Boston. Look for them to handle their business as only 2.5-point home favorites tonight. I loved the move to replace cancer Kyrie Irving with Kemba Walker. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are on their way to becoming stars and will get to play larger roles this season. And Gordon Hayward is back in the starting lineup after coming off the bench last year. Hayward scored 25 points in the opener and should return to the player that he was in Utah. The Raptors lost both Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green to the Lakers in free agency. They still have some talent here with Lowry, Gasol, Siakam, Ibaka and Van Vleet, but they are a far cry from the team they were last year. They didn’t do much to add to their roster in the offseason and two signees in Patrick McCaw and Rondae-Hollis Jefferson are out with injuries. Nick Nurse is 4-15 ATS after a combined score of 235 points or more as the coach of Toronto. Boston is 15-4 ATS in home games vs. division opponents over the last three seasons. The home team is 11-0 SU & 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings as home-court advantage has been huge in this series. Bet the Celtics Friday. |
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10-24-19 | Bucks +2 v. Rockets | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
15* Bucks/Rockets TNT Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Milwaukee +2 The Milwaukee Bucks had the best record in the NBA last season and will challenge for the top spot again in 2019. They didn’t lose much this offseason outside Malcolm Brogdon, who was simply an injury waiting to happen and the Pacers paid way too much for him. I actually think the Bucks got better in the offseason. They brought back their core four in Giannis, Bledsoe, Middleton and Lopez. They added veteran Wesley Matthews, C Robin Lopez, G Kyle Korver and F Dragan Bender. The Bucks will be a force once again and are far and away the best team in the East in my opinion. I think it’s going to take some time for the Rockets to get accustomed to playing with both James Harden and Russell Westbrook, the two most ball-dominant players in the NBA. They lost Chris Paul, Iran Shumpert and Kenneth Faried in the offseason. I don’t like the additions of Tyson Chandler and Thabo Sefolosha, who have both been non-factors in the NBA due to injury and age. The Bucks owned the Rockets in both meetings last season. They won 108-94 at home and held the Rockets to 36.4% shooting. They also won 116-109 on the road and held the Rockets to 37.6% shooting. The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Expect more of the same here in the opener. Roll with the Bucks Thursday. |
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10-23-19 | Grizzlies +8 v. Heat | 101-120 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Memphis Grizzlies +8 The Miami Heat are getting too much respect from oddsmakers in their opener against Memphis. They signed Jimmy Butler, and he has been a cancer in his last two stops in Philadelphia and Minnesota. He needs to have the ball in his hands to be effective, and he’s just not a great team player. The rest of Miami’s starting five includes Jutise Winslow, Dion Waiters, Kelly Olynyk and Bam Adebayo, though Waiters is out with a suspension. They are also without key role player James Johnson. They lost Dwyane Wade, Josh Richardson and Hassan Whiteside. I like the draft pick on Tyler Herro, but Meyers Leonard was their only other key addition, and he’s just not very good. The Grizzlies managed to win 33 games last year despite all of their injuries and players they traded away. They enter a new era now with a younger, exciting group of players. Their top two picks in the draft the last two years in Jaren Jackson Jr. and Ja Morant are absolute studs. They also got Brandon Clarke in the draft, giving them three huge building blocks for the future. Jonas Valanciunas was not a downgrade at all from Marc Gasol at center. He played well down the stretch for the Grizzlies as they were a thorn in the side of a lot of playoff contenders. They also added veteran Jae Crowder, who will start alongside Jackson Jr., Morant, Valanciunas and Dillon Brooks, who had a big preseason and looks to take the next step forward. They have a lot of depth as they added 10 players this offseason. Roll with the Grizzlies Wednesday. |
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10-23-19 | Bulls -2.5 v. Hornets | Top | 125-126 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -2.5 The Chicago Bulls will be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season. The Charlotte Hornets will be the worst team in the NBA by my estimation. So it only makes sense to back the Bulls as short favorites here in the opener over the Hornets. Injuries decimated the Bulls in a 22-60 season last year. This is one of the most talented rosters in the league when healthy. They have Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter Jr. and Zach LaVine as veterans to lead the way. They landed Coby White in the draft and added Thaddeus Young and Tomas Satoransky in free agency. And they get last year’s first-round pick in Wendell Carter Jr. back from injury. The Hornets could have traded Kemba Walker and got a big return either of the last two seasons. Instead, they gave hime a lowball offer and let him walk in free agency to Boston. They replaced him with a backup PG in Terry Rozier. The Hornets also let Jeremy Lamb walk in free agency, so they’ve lost their two best players. Their projected starting five of Rozier, Bacon, Washington, Bridges and Zeller is the worst in the NBA. Bet the Bulls Wednesday. |
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10-23-19 | Cavs +9 v. Magic | 85-94 | Push | 0 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +9 The Orlando Magic open the 2019-20 season getting too much respect from oddsmakers after a big finish last season to make the playoffs. I like their team, but they should not be laying 9 points to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the opener. While the Magic didn’t do much this offseason, the Cavaliers will be greatly improved after going just 19-63 last season. They drafted Daris Garland to pair with Collin Sexton, giving them one of the most dynamic backcourts in the NBA. They also drafted Dylan Windler and Kevin Porter Jr., thought Windler is out to start the season with a leg injury. Now the Cavaliers have a nice mix of youth and veterans. Their frontcourt is in good shape with Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson, and they brought back Matthew Dellavedova, who are the holdovers from the 2016 glory days. Love is still an All-Star caliber player who was hurt last year. Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr. should take another step forward this year. Take the Cavaliers Wednesday. |
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10-22-19 | Pelicans +7 v. Raptors | Top | 122-130 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
20* Pelicans/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on New Orleans +7 I think the injury to Zion Williamson is being overblown here, and the Pelicans are catching too many points now on opening night to pass up. This line has moved from Toronto -5 up to Toronto -7, providing us with ample value to pull the trigger on the Pelicans. New Orleans made plenty of other offseason moves that will improve them. They also added Jaxson Hayes and Nickeil Alexander-Walker in the draft. They signed JJ Redick and Nicolo Melli in free agency while also dealing for Derrick Favors. Plus, they got Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart and Brandon Ingram back in the Anthony Davis trade. This team is loaded with talent and depth now. The Raptors lost both Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green to the Lakers in free agency. Kyle Lowry will play despite recovering from offseason thumb surgery. And key signees Patrick McCaw (knee) and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (groin) will be out to start the season. There is still some talent here with Marc Gasol, Pascal Siakam and Serge Ibaka, but they are a far cry from the team that won the title last year while riding Leonard. The Pelicans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six trips to Toronto. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet the Pelicans Tuesday. |
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06-13-19 | Raptors +3 v. Warriors | Top | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
20* Raptors/Warriors Game 6 No-Brainer on Toronto +3 The Toronto Raptors are now 5-2 against the Warriors this season. Even in their two losses they had a chance to win, losing by a combined 6 points. And they’ve been unstoppable at Oracle in Golden State. Indeed, the Raptors are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at Golden State this season with wins by 20, 14 and 13 points. They have actually played their best basketball on the road in this series. And now without Kevin Durant, the Warriors don’t stand much of a chance of slowing them down. In Game 5, the Warriors got a 3-for-3 from 3-point shooting effort from Durant before he left with injury. His points proved to be the difference in the game in a 106-105 win. In fact, the Warriors made 20 3-pointers compared to just 8 for the Raptors, outscoring them by 36 points from the 3-point line. Yet they still only won by one. The discrepancy in 3-point shooting won’t be near that big in Game 6, and as as result the Raptors should roll again. The Raptors are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Toronto is 4-0 ATS in its last four trips to Golden State. Bet the Raptors in Game 6 Thursday. |
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06-10-19 | Warriors v. Raptors -1.5 | Top | 106-105 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
20* Warriors/Raptors Game 5 No-Brainer on Toronto -1.5 The Warriors are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers here in Game 5. They are only 1.5-point road underdogs to the Raptors. A lot of that has to do with he speculation that Kevin Durant may return, but even if he does he won’t be 100% and will be on a minutes restriction. The Raptors continue to get no love from oddsmakers despite saving their best basketball of the season for last. They are now 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall against the Bucks and Warriors. That’s no small feat. The only game they lost they lost by 5 to the Warriors and shot just 37.2% from the field. It will be the best atmosphere ever for a Toronto home game tonight. Canada wants their first ever NBA title, and fans will be raucous. The Raptors are 41-12 at home this season and have some of the best fans in the business. They also have the current best player in the NBA in Kawhi Leonard, who continues to make all the right decisions. The Raptors are 5-1 SU in all meetings with the Warriors this season. The Warriors just aren’t getting much help outside Curry and Thompson in this series, and the injuries and their lack of depth has really caught up to them. I believe this series ends tonight in Toronto. Bet the Raptors Monday. |
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06-05-19 | Raptors +5 v. Warriors | Top | 123-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
20* Raptors/Warriors Game 3 No-Brainer on Toronto +5 The Toronto Raptors had their fourth-worst shooting performance of the entire playoffs in Game 2. They shot just 35-of-94 (37.2%) from the field, yet they still only lost by 5 points. Look for them to shoot the ball much better in Game 3 and to prove once again that they are one of the best road teams in the NBA. Of course, injuries to the Warriors makes the job a lot easier for the Raptors. They will still be without Kevin Durant for Game 3, Kevon Looney is out for the playoffs after suffering a shoulder injury in Game 2, and Klay Thompson is questionable tonight with a hamstring injury also suffered in Game 2. The Looney injury is getting overlooked. The trio of Curry, Green and Looney have the best 3-man rating in the entire playoffs at +20.2 compared to only +2.5 without Looney on the floor. They have a +122.5 offensive rating with Looney compared to a +109.4 rating without him. Plus, they have the best 3-man defensive combination in the entire playoffs when Curry, Green and Looney are on the floor together. The Warriors are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win. The Raptors are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. A better shooting performance tonight will have them taking advantage of the Warriors’ injuries and likely winning this game outright, though we’ll take the points for some insurance. Bet the Raptors Wednesday. |
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06-02-19 | Warriors v. Raptors -2 | Top | 109-104 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
20* Warriors/Raptors Game 2 No-Brainer on Toronto -2 The Toronto Raptors have now won five straight games over the Bucks and Warriors. This team is proving they are for real and a legit threat to stop Golden State’s three-peat. They know getting Game 2 here is a must with Kevin Durant likely coming back soon. The Warriors are vulnerable without KD despite all the numbers they have shown about their record with Curry and without Durant. That was evident last series when they had to come back from 15-plus points down in three straight games against the Blazers. Well, the Raptors are much better than the Blazers. Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall. Golden State is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 Sunday games. The Raptors are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Toronto is now 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in all three meetings with the Warriors this season. Bet the Raptors Sunday. |
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05-30-19 | Warriors v. Raptors -1 | Top | 109-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
20* Warriors/Raptors Game 1 No-Brainer on Toronto -1 What the Raptors just did to the Bucks in winning four straight was the most impressive feat yet in these playoffs. The Bucks were the best team in the NBA during the regular season, and Nick Nurse and the Raptors came up with the proper game plan to stop them. Of course, the feat the Warriors just pulled off against the Blazers was also impressive. They swept the Blazers in four games, winning each of the final three games despite trailing by at least 15 points in all three. While impressive, it also shows how vulnerable the Warriors really are. The Blazers aren’t that good. Certainly this is a step up in class for the Warriors, who will still be without Kevin Durant. And the Raptors proved in the regular season that they could beat the Warriors, sweeping the season series while winning 131-128 at home and 113-93 on the road. Kawhi Leonard is the best player in this series, period, and the role players for the Raptors are really gaining confidence. I think the 5-day layoff for the Raptors is the superior situation than the 10-day layoff for the Warriors, who are sure to be rusty in Game 1. Toronto is 34-16-2 ATS in its last 52 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Raptors are 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. Bet the Raptors in Game 1 Thursday. |
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05-25-19 | Bucks +2 v. Raptors | Top | 94-100 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
20* Bucks/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee +2 The Milwaukee Bucks were the best team in the NBA all season. I’ll back them to get it figured out in Game 6 and get this series back to Milwaukee. The Raptors simply are not this good, getting the breaks late in wins in Game 3 and Game 5. Officiating certainly went the Raptors’ way in Game 5 as they attempted 31 free throws compared to 18 for the Bucks despite the fact that the game was played in Milwaukee. And Fred VanVleet hit 7 3-pointers, which was the difference and is unlikely to happen again. The Bucks are 31-16 SU & 28-17-2 ATS on the road this season, so they clearly aren’t phased by traveling. And they lost in double-OT in Toronto in Game 3. Not to mention, they won both regular season meetings in Toronto. Milwaukee is 16-4 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season. The Bucks are 22-3 SU & 19-6 ATS off a loss this season. Milwaukee is 37-16-2 ATS in its last 55 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Bet the Bucks Saturday. |
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05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 105-99 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
25* NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 After losing both games in Toronto, and getting embarrassed in Game 4, the Milwaukee Bucks return home highly motivated for a victory in Game 5 to regain control of this series. The Bucks are still 10-3 SU & 10-3 ATS in these playoffs and the best team in the East, and that will show tonight. Milwaukee has been a great bet off a loss. In fact, the Bucks are 22-2 SU & 19-5 ATS following a loss this season. That’s right, they’ve only lost back-to-back games twice all season, and it just happened for the second time. It’s been a resilient team, and that resiliency will really be on display tonight with the support of their home crowd on their side. Kawhi Leonard is clearly hobbled and tired. The Bucks made the mistake of double-teaming him last game, and he found open shooters time and time again. The Raptors’ roll players hit those shots at home, but now it will be the Bucks’ role players who step up at home this time around. And I expect Mike Budenholzer to make the right adjustments like he’s done all season and to not double-team Kawhi. He can’t beat them on his own. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Milwaukee) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, off two or more consecutive road losses are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last five seasons. Milwaukee is 10-1 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite this season. The Bucks are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games off a loss. Milwaukee is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS at home in the playoffs this season. Bet the Bucks Thursday. |
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05-21-19 | Bucks -3 v. Raptors | Top | 102-120 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
20* Bucks/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -3 The Milwaukee Bucks played about as poorly as they could have in Game 3. Yet, they still forced double-overtime despite shooting just 37.3% from the field. It was a must-win game for the Raptors in that spot, and they were fortunate to escape with a victory. They won’t be so fortunate in Game 4 tonight. The Bucks aren’t going to shoot that poorly again as this has been one of the best offensive teams in the NBA this season at 117.9 points per game on 47.3% shooting. They are loaded with great 3-point shooting to surround the unstoppable Greek Freak. Milwaukee is a ridiculous 22-1 SU & 19-4 ATS following a loss this season. It is coming back to win by 15.0 points per game in this spot. The Bucks are 12-2 ATS off a road loss this season. They have been the most resilient team in the NBA this season. Milwaukee is 20-7-1 ATS in its last 28 road games. The Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Bet the Bucks Tuesday. |
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05-20-19 | Warriors v. Blazers +3.5 | Top | 119-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
20* Warriors/Blazers ESPN No-Brainer on Portland +3.5 The Golden State Warriors just became the first team in NBA history to win consecutive playoff games after trailing by 13 or more points. It shows their resiliency, but it also shows how the Blazers could easily be up 2-1 in this series instead of down 0-3. From a line value perspective, there’s certainly value taking the Blazers in Game 4 here as 3.5-point underdogs when you consider they were 2.5-point favorites in Game 3. That’s a 6-point adjustment. I think the Blazers will show some pride here and not want to get swept. The Warriors are already without Kevin Durant and DeMarcus Cousins, and now they could be without Andre Iguodala, who left with a calf injury in Game 3. He is their best defender and the Blazers should have a lot more success offensively if he can’t go. Golden State is 4-12 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season. Portland is 11-2 ATS when revenging a loss by 10 points or more this season. The Blazers are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss. The Warriors are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win. Golden State is 19-42-2 ATS in its last 63 games off a win by more than 10 points. Bet the Blazers Monday. |
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05-19-19 | Bucks v. Raptors -2 | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
15* Bucks/Raptors TNT ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -2 It’s now or never for the Toronto Raptors. They must win Game 3 if they want to get back in this series after losing the first two, and I trust them to get the job done. The Raptors are 37-11 at home this season. Milwaukee is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games off three or more consecutive home wins. Toronto is 18-5 ATS after failing to cover four of its last five ATS over the last three years. Toronto is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Roll with the Raptors Sunday. |
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05-18-19 | Warriors v. Blazers -2 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
25* NBA Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Portland Trail Blazers -2 The Portland Trail Blazers know they can beat the Warriors. They proved it in the regular season by splitting the season series 2-2. And they certainly gave them a run for their money in Games 1 and 2 in Golden State. Indeed, the Blazers were tired off their seven-game series with the Nuggets, yet they were only down by 6 points at the end of three quarters despite playing their worst game of the playoffs in Game 1. They played much better in Game 2 and actually led by 17 in the 3rd quarter, but the Warriors came back and stole a victory late. Now, with their season on the line, the Blazers should be able to win Game 3 at home. The Warriors are likely to relax after protecting their home court, while the Blazers are likely to play with a big chip on their shoulder here after letting Game 2 slip away. This is my favorite bet of the conference finals. The Warriors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games off a win. The Blazers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Bet the Blazers Saturday. |
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05-16-19 | Blazers +7.5 v. Warriors | 111-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
15* Blazers/Warriors ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Portland +7.5 The 22-point blowout the Warriors put on the Blazers was a bit misleading. This was a 6-point game at the end of three quarters. Portland managed to hang around despite committing 21 turnovers and shooting just 36.1% from the field. So, the Blazers couldn’t have played any worse in Game 1, and they still had a chance to pull the upset going into the 4th quarter. And they were in a tough spot off a difficult Game 7 win in Denver. Now a few more days removed, and they should come back much fresher for Game 2 tonight. Expect the Blazers to give the Warriors a run for their money. Golden State has shot 49.4% and 50% from eh field in its last two games. Both of those were without Kevin Durant. The Warriors aren’t a better team without Durant, and they certainly will be hard-pressed to continue shooting as well as they did in their last two games against Houston and Portland. Portland is 8-0 ATS when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more this season. It is bouncing back to win by 8.3 points per game in this situation. Golden State is 9-19 ATS off a win by 15 points or more this season. The Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games off an ATS win. Take the Blazers Thursday. |
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05-15-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
20* Raptors/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -6 The Milwaukee Bucks have been the best team in the NBA all season. And as a result, they’ve been the best team for bettors to back, too. They are currently 68-23 SU & 55-33 ATS this season. They’ve been even better in the playoffs, going 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS for backers with seven wins by double-digits. The Bucks went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Raptors in the regular season. They are in the favorable spot here having a full week off after closing their series with the Celtics last Wednesday. The spot is a much tougher one for the Raptors. Indeed, Toronto just completed a grueling seven-game series with the 76ers on Sunday. We saw how much the seven-game series took out of the Blazers last night, and I think it will be the same for the Raptors. I think they relax in Game 1 here after surviving the 76ers, and they will simply still be too tired to match the energy and effort the Bucks put into this game. Toronto is 1-9 ATS in road games after allowing 90 points or less over the last two seasons. The Bucks are 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Bucks Wednesday. |
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05-14-19 | Blazers +7.5 v. Warriors | 94-116 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
15* Blazers/Warriors ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Portland +7.5 The Warriors are ripe for the picking with Kevin Durant likely to miss the first two games of this series. Yes, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson caught fire against the Rockets in Game 6 last series to steal a victory, but they can’t be expected to stay that hot. The fact of the matter is the Warriors are short-handed. They already lacked a bench before losing both DeMarcus Cousins and Kevin Durant. The Blazers won’t take them lightly like the Rockets did, and this is a Blazers team with something special going right now. Indeed, the Blazers upset both the Thunder and the Nuggets as underdogs in their series. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are showing why they are one of the best guard tandems in the NBA. And the Blazers are getting significant contributions from most of their role players like Seth Curry, Zach Collins, Enes Kanter, Al-Farouq Aminu, Rodney Hood and Maurice Harkless. The Blazers split the season series with the Warriors 2-2, including a 110-109 upset at Golden State as 9-point dogs. Golden State is 1-8 ATS in home games when revenging a loss this season. The Warriors are 9-18 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. Golden State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following an ATS win. Bet the Blazers Tuesday. |
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05-12-19 | 76ers v. Raptors -6 | 90-92 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
15* 76ers/Raptors TNT ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -6 The Philadelphia 76ers just can’t be trusted to go on the road and win a big Game 7 like this. They only have one player you can trust, and that’s Jimmy Butler. Joel Embiid has been held in check this series by Marc Gasol, Ben Simmons has only had one good game, and Tobias Harris hasn’t been much of a factor. The Raptors did lose once at home to the 76ers in Game 2, but they blew them out by 13 and 36 points in the other two meetings in Toronto. The Raptors are now 15-1 SU & 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home meetings with the 76ers. They have covered six of their last seven at home against Philadelphia. Home teams are 105-28 (79%) at home in Game 7’s all-time. Toronto is 16-3 ATS in home games vs. division opponents over the last two seasons. The Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following. Loss by more than 10 points. Take the Raptors Sunday. |
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05-12-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 100-96 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
20* Blazers/Nuggets ABC No-Brainer on Denver -5.5 The Denver Nuggets had the best home record in the NBA during the regular season. They are 39-9 at home, outscoring opponents by 10.1 points per game, and I trust them to get the job done here in Game 7 at home by 6-plus points to cover this spread. After all, the Nuggets already showed they could handle the pressure of a Game 7 by beating the Spurs at home, and they didn’t even play that well in that game. I expect them to play more like they did in the pivotal Game 5 when they buried the Blazers 124-98 as identical 5.5-point favorites. Home teams are 105-28 (79%) at home in Game 7’s all-time. Portland is 3-15 ATS in road games after failing to cover five or six of their last seven games aover the last three seasons. Denver is 14-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. The Nuggets are 13-5 ATS in home games when revenging a loss this season. The Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win. Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss. The Nuggets are 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Bet the Nuggets Sunday. |
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05-10-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -7 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
20* Warriors/Rockets ESPN No-Brainer on Houston -7 The Houston Rockets let the Warriors off the hook in Game 5. I think they let down from the Kevin Durant injury, and James Harden wasn’t his usual self, shooting just one time in the final eight minutes, 30 seconds of the game. I think after reflecting on the fact that Durant is out, the Rockets won’t feel bad at all. Remember, they held a 3-2 series lead over the Warriors last season before Chris Paul went out with a hamstring injury and missed the final two games. I believe they would have won that series had Paul not gotten hurt. Now, the Rockets should win this series because Durant is hurt, and DeMarcus Cousins is already out. The Warriors don’t have any depth this year, which is why they have had to play their starters such big minutes already. That certainly could have attributed to the Durant injury. Now, too much of the scoring load will be placed on Steph Curry and Klay Thompson because the Warriors really don’t have any other scorers. Houston is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home in the playoffs this season, outscoring opponents by 13.6 points per game. The Rockets are now 36-10 at home this season. Houston is 8-1 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive ATS wins this season. Bet the Rockets Friday. |
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05-08-19 | Rockets +6.5 v. Warriors | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
15* Rockets/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston +6.5 The Houston Rockets are loaded with confidence now after taking two must-win games in Houston to even this series at 2-2. They know this pivotal Game 5 is where they can really take a stranglehold on this series and get the sweet revenge they’ve been waiting for since blowing a 3-2 lead last year after Chris Paul went down with injury. The Rockets have been the more aggressive team in this series, and they’ve done a great job of limiting both Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. They are letting Kevin Durant get his, but the Warriors are much better when the ball is moving and everyone is getting involved. They are playing a brilliant defensive game thus far. Considering all four meetings in this series have been decided by 6 points or less, I think we are getting some real value here with the Rockets as 6.5-point dogs in a game that will likely go down to the wire again. The Rockets are now 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their eight meetings with the Warriors this season, and I actually believe they are the better team. The Rockets have a deep bench, while the Warriors’ bench is the worst its been in a long time. Golden State is 9-18 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. Houston is 30-16 ATS in road games off a home win over the last three years. The Rockets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Houston is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following a win. The Warriors are 11-23-1 ATS in their last 35 home games. Take the Rockets Wednesday. |
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05-08-19 | Celtics +9 v. Bucks | Top | 91-116 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
20* Celtics/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Boston +9 The Boston Celtics won’t go down without a fight. That’s the type of team they are, and they have heard in the media that this series is already over from everyone. I think there’s a ton of value on the motivated Celtics as 9-point dogs in this contest. Boston shot 54% in its upset Game 1 victory, which wasn’t sustainable. However, the Celtics have shot just 39.5%, 43.2% and 37.8% in their three games since, and they are a much better shooting team than that. Look for them to get closer to the 50% mark in this Game 5 than they have been in their previous three games. Boston is 13-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games over the last two seasons. It is winning outright by 8.0 points per game in this spot. Milwaukee is 67-112 ATS in its lsat 179 games off three or more consecutive wins. The Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. The road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Bet the Celtics Wednesday. |
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05-07-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 98-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
20* Blazers/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on Denver -4.5 The Denver Nuggets are a resilient bunch. They trailed 2-1 against San Antonio and went and got a huge road win 117-103. Then they followed it up with an 18-point victory at home in Game 5 to regain control of the series. I think we see something similar here against Portland. After trailing 2-1 after losing a four-overtime heartbreaker, the Nuggets went into Portland and pulled out a victory in Game 4. They have all the momentum and confidence now, and I look for them to continue playing very well on their home court. The Nuggets had the best home record in the NBA during the regular season and are now 38-9 at home this season. I simply believe they are the deeper, more talented team in this series, and as long as they shoot the ball hallway decent they will win and cover. They have covered in six of their eight meetings with the Blazers this season. Denver is 18-5 ATS in home games off an ATS win this season. Portland is 3-14 ATS in road games after failing to cover five or six of their last seven ATS over the last three seasons. Plays against road underdogs (Portland) vs. division opponents, off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 25-8 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Nuggets Tuesday. |
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05-06-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -1 | Top | 108-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
20* Warriors/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Houston -1 The Rockets will be brimming with confidence after taking down the Warriors in overtime in Game 3 and saving their season. Now, I look for them to put forth their best performance yet in a series that has been closely-contested thus far with all three games decided by 6 points or less. The Rockets are 35-10 at home this season and 4-0 at home in the playoffs, outscoring opponents by an average of 16 points per game. They certainly got more from their role players at home in Game 3 as they made 18 3-pointers as a team and shot 48.4% from the field. The Rockets are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. Houston is 8-2 ATS in its lsat 10 games following a win. The Rockets are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their seven meetings with the Warriors this season. Bet the Rockets Monday. |
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05-06-19 | Bucks v. Celtics -1.5 | 113-101 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
15* Bucks/Celtics TNT ANNIHILATOR on Boston Celtics -1.5 The Boston Celtics are fighting for their lives tonight at home in Game 4. If they lose this game, the series is overall. The Celtics will want it more, and the Bucks could easily relax after regaining home-court advantage after an impressive Game 3 victory. The Celtics shot 54% in Game 1, which wasn’t sustainable. But they have shot just 39.5% in Game 2 and 43.2% in Game 3 since. They are a better shooting team than that, and I look for their offense to be much smoother in Game 4 as more guys get involved. It was a rare home playoff loss for the Celtics in Game 3. The Celtics are 12-2 ATS in home playoff games over the last two seasons. Boston is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The Celtics are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home meetings with the Bucks. Take the Celtics Monday. |
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05-04-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -3 | Top | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Rockets -3 The Houston Rockets had their chances in both Games 1 and 2 at Golden State. The officials cost them Game 1 in a 4-point loss, and they got within 3 late in the second half of Game 2 but lost by 6. They certainly know they can beat this team, and I can’t see them falling down 3-0 and not putting up a fight. The Rockets proved they could beat the Warriors by winning three of four regular season meetings with their only loss coming by 2 points. And now they get the Warriors at home for the first time in this series. I expect Golden State to relax after taking care of business at home, and for the Rockets to simply want this one more. Getting three days off between games was huge for James Harden. His eye injury got extra time to heal, and he should be near 100% for this one. Harden still had 29 points in Game 2 with that eye injury, so I’m not concerned about it at all. The Warriors are plus-15 in field goal attempts in this series because the Rockets have been terrible in turnovers and allowing offensive rebounds. They have turned the ball over 31 times and have allowed 26 offensive rebounds with the Warriors regaining possession on 30.2% of their misses. Look for the Rockets to shore up those two areas, and that will make all the difference here. Houston is 8-1 ATS when playing with double revenge this season, coming back to win by 13.6 points per game on average. The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. The Rockets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine home games. They went 3-0 at home against the Jazz last series, outscoring them by a combined 59 points in the three victories. Bet the Rockets Saturday. FREE Kentucky Derby Picks! Win: No. 5 Improbable (5/1) Improbable was undefeated in three starts as a 2-year-old. Since then he lost by a neck in the Rebel Stakes and by a length to Derby favorite Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby. That effort showed he could go the distance with what was previously the best horse in the field in Omaha Beach. Now, I believe Improbable is the best horse in the field. The pedigree is a good one as well. He is the son of City Zip, a Grade 1-winning sprinter and half brother to 2004 Breeders’ Cup Classic and Horse of the Year Ghostzapper. It’s also worth mentioning he has the same trainer and owner as Triple Crown winner, Justify. I like the running style of Improbable. He likes to stalk the leader and sit no more than one or two lengths behind before making his move around the final turn. There isn’t going to be a lot of speed in this race, so the stalkers will have the advantage over the closers. Horses sitting too far off the pace will have no chance. Improbable has as good a chance as any at winning the Run for the Roses this year. Place: No. 16 Game Winner (9/2) Game Winner is basically a nose and a half-length away from being unbeaten with the two losses coming to elite competition. He lost to Omaha Beach in the Grade II Rebel Stakes by a nose, and we all know that Omaha Beach was the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby before getting scratched. Then, with his ticket already punched into the Kentucky Derby, Game Winner lost to fellow Bob Baffert trainee Roadster by a half-length in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. Well, there’s been talk that Game Winner didn’t give it his all in that race because he didn’t need to. Roadster needed the win to quality for the Kentucky Derby, so it would make sense that Baffert would have instructed the jockey of Game Winner to let Roadster win. The pedigree is a good one as well for Game Winner, which is a bay colt by Candy Ride, the sire of 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner. He is also out of Indyan Giving, the daughter of A.P. Indy and champion older mare Fleet Indian. Game Winner can get the distance as Fleet Indians scored in the 1 1/4-mile Personal Ensign (G1) and Delaware H. (G2), and her other stakes wins all came at 1 1/8-miles, the most notorious of which was the Beldame (G1). Show: No. 8 Tacitus (8/1) Tacitus won both of his Derby prep races with victories in the Grade II Tampa Bay Derby and the Grade II Wood Memorial. His victory in the Wood Memorial was made even more impressive by the fact that he was bumped at the start, yet he went on to post the best Brisnet speed figure (103) of any horse in their final prep race. Tacitus has the perfect racing style to win the Kentucky Derby, too. He likes to sit mid-pack, just behind the first set of stalkers. He has drawn the 8th post position, and most horses have had success from the 5-10 spots. He should get a nice trip and be able to stalk the early leaders. Juddmonte Farms has captured all of the world’s biggest races except the Kentucky Derby. In Tacitus, they believe they will capture the Run for the Roses this year. Dam Close Hatches is a thorough Juddmonte product top and bottom. Sire First Defence is a near relation to homebred Empire Maker, the runner-up as the Derby favorite that went on to win the Belmont. Exacta Pick: 5, 8, 14, 16 ($2 Exacta Box Costs $24) Trifecta Pick: 5, 8, 14, 16 ($2 Trifecta Box Costs $48) Superfecta Pick: 5, 8, 14, 16 ($1 Superfecta Box Costs $24) Note: I’m throwing in No. 14 Win Win Win (15/1) in my Trifecta Box as I believe he is the horse with the fourth-best chance to hit the board. Other horses I consider to have a shot in order are Roadster (5/1), Vekoma (15/1), Maximum Security (8/1) and Code of Honor (12/1). |
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05-02-19 | Raptors -1 v. 76ers | Top | 95-116 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
20* Raptors/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on Toronto -1 After shooting 51.9% in a Game 1 blowout victory, the Raptors were upset in Game 2. That’s because they shot just 36.3% from the field and 27% from 3-point range. They also let the 76ers shoot 11 more free throws than them. I can’t foresee the Raptors shooting that poorly again. They are the better offensive team in this series, and they are certainly the better defensive team, which has shown. They have held the 76ers to 39.3% shooting and 39.5% shooting in Games 1 and 2, respectively. They clearly have Philadelphia figured out. It took a heroic game from Jimmy Butler to beat them in Game 2. Plays on road favorites (Toronto) - a good team that outscores its opponents by 3-plus points per game, after scoring 90 points or less are 46-21 (68.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Toronto is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games overall, including 6-2 ATS in its last eight road games. The Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. Toronto is 27-12-2 ATS in its lsat 41 trips to Philadelphia, and 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings overall. Bet the Raptors Thursday. |
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04-30-19 | Rockets +5.5 v. Warriors | Top | 109-115 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
20* Rockets/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston +5.5 Even with the Warriors getting all the calls in Game 1, the Rockets only lost 100-104. And the Rockets shot just 41.9% in the process compared to 50.7% for Golden State. That’s a good sign that the Rockets will win Game 2 with a few more things going their way. Remember, the Rockets had the Warriors down 3-2 last year in the conference finals before Chris Paul got hurt. They went on to lose the final two games. I think they would have won that series had Paul not got hurt. The Rockets won three out of four meetings with the Warriors during the regular season with their only loss coming by 2 points. They have clearly shown they are on the Warriors’ level, if not the better team now. Houston is 8-0 ATS when playing with double-revenge this season. It is bouncing back to win by 15.8 points per game in this spot. The Warriors are 10-23-1 ATS in their last 34 home games. Golden State is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games off a win. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Rockets Tuesday. |
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04-30-19 | Celtics v. Bucks -7 | 102-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
15* Celtics/Bucks TNT ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee -7 Everything that could go wrong for the Bucks in Game 1 did. They shot just 34.8% as a team compared to 54% for Boston. Don’t expect that kind of discrepancy again. The Bucks will roll in Game 2 to even this series. Remember, the home team went 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS last year when these teams met in the playoffs. The Bucks are 35-9 at home this season. They are scoring 119.2 points per game at home and were held to just 90 in Game 1. That’s nearly 30 points off their season average. The Bucks are 18-4 ATS off a loss this season. They are coming back to win by 14.8 points per game on average in this spot. Milwaukee is 15-3 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this year, including 9-1 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last two seasons. Take the Bucks Tuesday. |
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04-29-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -4 | Top | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
20* Blazers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -4 The Portland Trail Blazers are getting a lot of respect from the books now after beating the Oklahoma City Thunder in five games. Well, the Thunder basically self-destructed and shot less than 41% from the field in three of the five games. Too many poor jump shots by Russell Westbrook did them in. Getting Enes Kanter was huge for the Blazers to help make up for the loss of Jusuf Nurkic. But now Kanter has a shoulder injury and said it was difficult to even put his jersey on. It’s a separated shoulder, and I just think that now Jokic is going to dominate in this series, starting with Game 1. Jokic owned the Blazers in the regular season, too. Getting Denver as only a 4-point favorite here is a nice value when you consider they are 37-8 at home this season. And the Nuggets won three out of four during the regular season. Their only loss came in their fourth and final meeting in a game that didn’t matter to them. The Blazers were 8.5-point home favorites in that game, compared to only 2-point home favorites in their first meeting in Portland. The Nuggets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last five conference semifinals games. The Nuggets are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Blazers with their only loss coming in that meaningless game. Bet the Nuggets Monday. |
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04-27-19 | 76ers +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 95-108 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
20* 76ers/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Philadelphia +6.5 The Toronto Raptors are 2-14 in their last 16 during Game 1 of a playoff series. They are notorious slow starters. They lost to the Magic in Game 1 last series, and Kyle Lowry was held scoreless. He seems to disappear in Game 1’s and that has been the constant. The 76ers are 39-19 ATS when revenging a home loss over the last three seasons. Toronto is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 during Game 1 of a playoff series. The Raptors are 4-14 ATS off four consecutive wins this season. Bet the 76ers Saturday. |
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04-25-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -2.5 | Top | 103-120 | Win | 100 | 30 h 30 m | Show |
20* Nuggets/Spurs TNT No-Brainer on San Antonio -2.5 The Nuggets managed to end a 14-game losing streak in San Antonio with their victory in Game 4. They followed that up with an 18-point home victory in Game 5. I think they are now being overvalued here, and I expect the Spurs to get a victory in this must-win game and keep this series alive. This is a very young Nuggets team that hasn’t experienced a close out game outside of Paul Millsap. They are the toughest games to win, especially since they know they have a home game in their hop pocket in Game 7 if need be. The Spurs are going to want this game more, and that will show on the court Thursday night. As mentioned before, the Spurs are now 14-1 SU in their last 15 home meetings with the Nuggets. They have been one of the best home teams in the NBA this season as well, going 33-10 SU & 25-18 ATS in San Antonio. This is a very short number for them to be laying given those 14-1 & 33-10 numbers. The Spurs are 24-5 ATS revenging a road loss this season, including 13-2 when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more. Bet the Spurs Thursday. |
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04-24-19 | Jazz +8.5 v. Rockets | Top | 93-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
20* Jazz/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Utah +8.5 The Utah Jazz showed what they were capable of against the Rockets in Game 3 and 4 in Salt Lake City. Nobody in the league can defend the Rockets better than them, and that showed as they held the Rockets to 38.4% shooting in Game 3 and 35.4% in Game 4. Now, the Jazz have the belief they can win in Houston and extend this series. The amazing part is that the Jazz still haven’t shot up to their capabilities once this series. They shot 39% in Game 1, 39.8% in Game 2, 41.6% in Game 3 and 43% in Game 4. They haven’t shot better than 31.4% from 3-point range in any game, and going 4-for-26 on open looks cost them Game 4. I think their best shooting performance of the series is still to come. It’s a Jazz team that shoots 46.5% on the season and 35.2% from 3-point range while averaging 111.1 points per game. Yes, the Rockets are a good defensive team, but they aren’t this good. Now that they have some confidence after a 16-point victory in Game 4, expect the Jazz to knock down those open shots in Game 5. Utah is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 off an upset win by 15 points or more as a home underdog. Bet the Jazz Wednesday. |
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04-23-19 | Thunder +4 v. Blazers | Top | 115-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
20* Thunder/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City +4 The Portland Trail Blazers are already talking like they’ve won this series. They have been reflecting back on getting swept the last few years and how much criticism they’ve taken in the media that have fueled them. These are things you’re supposed to be talking about after the series is over, not before. You can bet the Thunder have heard all the interviews and now will be the team playing with a chip on their shoulder. Russell Westbrook certainly needs quit taking contested jumpers, and he should be wise enough to make the proper adjustments in Game 4. Look for him to be in attack mode and looking to get to the rim every chance he gets, which is when he’s at his best. Keep in mind the Thunder swept the Blazers in the regular season, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS. So they know they aren’t out of this yet. Win Game 4 and get this series back to OKC, and it’s a whole new series. I still believe they are the better team, and with their backs against the wall tonight, I expect their best effort of the season to try and stave off elimination. The Thunder have shot worse than 41% from the field in all three of losses in this series. They are a much better shooting team than that, and the Blazers aren’t as good as they’ve shown defensively. It’s a Blazers team that gives up 110.1 points per game and 45.5% shooting on the season, and a lot of that was with their best defender in Jusuf Nurkic. Bet the Thunder Tuesday. |
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04-22-19 | Rockets v. Jazz +3 | Top | 91-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
20* Rockets/Jazz TNT No-Brainer on Utah +3 A lot has been made about James Harden opening 0-for-15 from the floor and the Rockets still winning Game 3. Well, that’s easily explainable that they won when the Jazz went 4-for-26 on wide open shots in Game 3. The Jazz had control of the game the entire way until the final minutes despite that terrible shooting performance. The Jazz are a prideful team and will not go down without a fight here. They don’t want swept. And they certainly cannot shoot any worse than they have thus far in this series, shooting 39% in Game 1, 39.8% in Game 2 and 41.6% in Game 3. They have better shooters than those numbers, and I have to think they are due for at least an average shooting performance tonight. Utah has found a way to slow down James Harden, perhaps better than any other team is capable of in the NBA. They have hung their hats on defense all season as they’ve been one of the best defensive teams in the league. And that’s why they have a good chance to get a win tonight with just an average shooting night, because their defense will be good again. Quin Snyder is 30-16 ATS revenging a loss as a home favorite as the coach of Utah. The Rockets are 6-14 ATS in road games off a road game this season. The Jazz are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a loss. Bet the Jazz Monday. |
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04-21-19 | Blazers v. Thunder -6 | Top | 111-98 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 14 m | Show |
20* Blazers/Thunder TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City -6 The Oklahoma City Thunder were 7.5-point favorites in a must-win Game 3. I was all over them as my 25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR, and they delivered with a 12-point victory. Now we are getting them in another must-win situation Sunday, but at an even better price. They are only 6-point favorites for Game 4 and we’ll take advantage. The Thunder are a completely different animal at home. The ‘orange out’ by the fans was sweet in Game 3, and expect another raucous atmosphere here in Game 4. The Thunder have lost 11 straight road playoff games, but it has been a different story at home. And keep in mind that the Blazers are still just 2-11 SU in their last 13 playoff games. Russell Westbrook promised he’d be more assertive on the offensive end leading into Game 3, and he delivered with 33 points. Look for him to remain in attack mode, especially after Damian Lillard really got under his skin in Game 3. This team took a business-like approach and will do so again in Game 4 against a Blazers team that is still undermanned without Jusuf Nurkic, and that’s just now starting to come to fruition. The Thunder are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their seven meetings with the Blazers this season. I stated they’d shoot better in Game 3, and they did just that going 15-of-29 (51.7%) from 3-point range. They are just so much more confident at home. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Oklahoma City is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games. Portland is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games. Bet the Thunder Sunday. |
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04-20-19 | Rockets v. Jazz -2.5 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
20* Rockets/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -2.5 A little home cooking should do the Utah Jazz wonders after playing terrible in Houston while losing the first two games of this series in blowout fashion. The Jazz are favored for good reason here despite those poor performances because their season is on the line tonight. The Jazz couldn’t have shot any worse than they did in Houston. They shot 39% from the floor and 7-of-27 (25.9%) from 3-point range in Game 1. They weren’t any better in Game 2, shooting 39.8% from the floor and 8-of-38 (21.1%) from 3-point range. Now the Jazz are back at home in the friendly confines of Salt Lake City, where they are 29-12 on the season. While the Jazz will be laying it all on the line in this ‘must-win’ game, the Rockets could certainly let up in Game 3, especially after how easy those first two games came for them. Plays on home favorites (Utah) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, off two or more consecutive road losses are 52-21 (71.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Houston is 0-7 ATS in road games after leading their last two games by 10-plus points at halftime this season. The Rockets are losing by 9.3 points per game in this spot. Bet the Jazz Saturday. |
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04-20-19 | 76ers v. Nets +1.5 | 112-108 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
15* 76ers/Nets TNT Early ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn +1.5 The Philadelphia 76ers were able to overcome the absence of Joel Embiid in Game 3 by shooting lights out. They shot 48.4% from the floor and 40.7% from 3-point range as a team to take a 131-115 victory. Embiid is expected to be out again for Game 4. The 76ers were way worse without Embiid during the regular season as he proved to be the most important player to any team in the league based on the numbers. And the 76ers aren’t going to shoot this well again, especially Tobias Harris and JJ Redick, who combined to go 11-of-15 from 3-point range. Conversely, Brooklyn isn’t going to shoot as poorly as it did in Game 3. The Nets shot just 41.1% from the floor and a woeful 8-for-39 (20.5%) from 3-point range. They are looking at this game as a ‘must-win’, and I think they treat it that way while the 76ers know they still have two games at home to finish the series if need be. The 76ers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a win by more than 10 points. The Nets are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss by more than 10 points. Philadelphia is 2-13 ATS after covering three of its last four against the spread this season. The 76ers are 7-21 ATS off two more more consecutive wins this season. Brooklyn is 21-10 ATS when revenging a loss this season. Take the Nets Saturday. |
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04-19-19 | Blazers v. Thunder -7.5 | Top | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5 The Oklahoma City Thunder’s road playoff woes continued in Portland in Games 1 and 2. They have now lost 11 consecutive road games in the playoffs. But now they’re back home here in a ‘must-win’ Game 3 that should go their way from start to finish in a blowout victory. Shooting has been the issue for the Thunder as they shot 39.8% in Game 1 and 40.7% in Game 2. They were 5-for-33 (15.2%) from 3-point range in Game 1, and 5-for-28 (17.9%) in Game 2. Obviously, it’s going to be hard for them to shoot this poorly again. As is the case with most series, role players step up and hit shots at home and miss shots on the road. So guys like Ferguson and Grant for the Thunder will likely start hitting their shots in Game 3 tonight. And Russell Westbrook will be more assertive on offense after saying his play was unacceptable in Game 2. Look for huge games from both Westbrook and George as we see a very inspired effort from the Thunder tonight. Plays on home favorites (Oklahoma City) - revenging a loss of 10 points or more, off two or more consecutive road losses are 52-21 (71.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Thunder Friday. |
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04-18-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -3.5 | Top | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
20* Nuggets/Spurs NBA TV No-Brainer on San Antonio -3.5 The San Antonio Spurs have controlled this series thus far outside of the 4th quarter in Game 2. They have pretty much led the entire way other than that one quarter, where Jamal Murray went off for 21 points. Look for them to take back control of this series with a win and cover at home in Game 2. The Spurs have been one of the best home teams in the NBA this season. They are 32-9 on their home floor. The Nuggets have a losing road record, and they just can’t win in San Antonio. Indeed, the Nuggets have lost 13 straight games in San Antonio, a streak that dates back to March 2012. San Antonio is 7-0 ATS in home games when playing four or less games in 10 days this season. The Spurs are 27-8 ATS when revenging a loss this season. San Antonio is 20-2 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more this year. They are winning by 12.2 points per game on average in this spot. Bet the Spurs Thursday. |
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04-18-19 | 76ers v. Nets +3.5 | 131-115 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
15* 76ers/Nets TNT ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn +3.5 The Nets have really been impressive in this series with the 76ers thus far. They led basically the entire way in their 111-102 win in Game 1. They hung tough in the first half and only trailed 64-65 at the break in Game 2 in what was essentially a must-win game for the Nets. They got blown out in the second half, which is to be expected. The Nets haven’t been to the playoffs in years, so it’s going to be a raucous atmosphere in Brooklyn tonight for Game 3. And the Nets will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after Joel Embiid was seen laughing about elbowing Jarett Allen in the postgame news conference. They want revenge in a big way here. The Nets are 23-18 at home this season, while the 76ers actually have a losing record on the road. Brooklyn is 33-16 ATS when revenging a loss this season. The Nets are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games when playing on two days’ rest. Take the Nets Thursday. |
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04-17-19 | Jazz +7 v. Rockets | Top | 98-118 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
20* Jazz/Rockets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +7 The Utah Jazz are deploying a new strategy in defending James Harden. They are making him go to his weak hand with a trailing defender. They didn’t execute in Game 1, but they should be much more successful in Game 2. The Jazz shot 39% compared by 50.5% for the Rockets in Game 1, as well as 25.9% and 36.6% from 3-point range, respectively. Utah is one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA, and they were actually out rebounded, too. Look for both of those stats to be swayed more in their favor in Game 2. Utah is 10-1 ATS off two or more consecutive road losses over the last two seasons. The Jazz are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a straight up loss. The road team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings, and the Jazz are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Houston. Bet the Jazz Wednesday. |
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04-17-19 | Pacers +7.5 v. Celtics | 91-99 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
15* Pacers/Celtics TNT ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +7.5 It’s pretty impressive the Pacers only lost by 10 to the Celtics in Game 1 with how poorly they shot the ball. They shot 33.3% from the floor, 22.2% from 3-point range and 57.1% from the free throw line. They certainly won’t shoot that poorly again, and as a result they should be able to stay within this 7.5-point spread in Game 2. The Pacers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 conference quarterfinals games. Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss. Boston is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games. The Celtics are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the Pacers Wednesday. |
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04-16-19 | Thunder +1.5 v. Blazers | Top | 94-114 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
20* Thunder/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City +1.5 The Oklahoma City Thunder shot just 39.8% as a team and 5-for-33 (15.2%) from 3-point range in Game 1. The Blazers shot 11-for-25 (44%) from 3-point range. Yet, the Thunder still had a chance to win late and only lost 99-104. Knowing that those shooting percentages will almost certainly turn in their favor in Game 2 as they can’t get much worse, I’m taking the Thunder to bounce back with a victory tonight. They still have several big advantages in this series, not the least of which is the loss of Jusuf Nurkic. I think the Blazers will breathe a sigh of relief after they ended a 10-game playoff losing streak. And the Thunder will get back to dominating them just as they did in the regular season. The Thunder went 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS against the Blazers in the regular season. Bet the Thunder Tuesday. |
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04-16-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets -6.5 | 105-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
15* Spurs/Nuggets NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Denver -6.5 The Nuggets lost 96-101 to the Spurs in Game 1. I was on the Spurs in that game, and they pulled the upset. But I’m reversing courses here and taking the Nuggets to get the win and cover in Game 2 in what is essentially a must-win game. The Spurs are content with winning one game in Denver, and they were aided by some great performances from their role players in White, Gay and Forbes, who all scored 14-plus points. They were also helped by poor shooting by the Nuggets. Indeed, the Nuggets shot just 42% for the game and 6-of-28 (21.4%) from 3-point range. That’s not going to happen again as this is one of the most dynamic offensive teams in the league, and the Spurs have the worst defense they’ve had in years. The Spurs shot 48.2% as a team and 46.7% from 3-point range in Game 1, also numbers that will be hard for them to match. The Spurs are 17-25 on the road this season, while the Nuggets are 34-8 at home. Take the Nuggets Tuesday. |
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04-15-19 | Nets v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 123-145 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
20* Nets/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Philadelphia -7.5 The Philadelphia 76ers shot just 40.7% in Game 1 and were upset as a result. They will come back highly motivated for a victory in Game 2 tonight to square this season. Look for them to get the win and cover at home tonight. Joel Embiid did play in Game 1 after being questionable leading up to it. He hadn’t practiced before. Now that the 76ers got a feel for playing with him again, they should be much sharper offensively in Game 2. And look for them to get a lot more from Ben Simmons, JJ Redick and Tobias Harris, who weren’t assertive enough in Game 1. I think there’s value here with the 76ers considering they were 8-point favorites in Game 1, and now they are only 7.5 to 8-point favorites in Game 2. The Nets are simply happy with stealing one game and won’t bring the same kind of effort for Game 2. They will have a hard time matching the intensity the 76ers play with tonight. The 76ers are 31-15 ATS in their last 46 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Philadelphia is 31-11 at home this season. Bet the 76ers Monday. |
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04-14-19 | Pistons +12.5 v. Bucks | 86-121 | Loss | -103 | 35 h 20 m | Show | |
15* Pistons/Bucks TNT ANNIHILATOR on Detroit +12.5 The Detroit Pistons played about as well as anyone down the stretch just to make the playoffs. They went 19-12 SU & 20-11 ATS in their last 31 games overall to get to .500 on the season and snag the final playoff spot in the East. And many of those losses came without Blake Griffin, who has an excellent chance to return to the lineup for the playoffs. The Pistons got a break with their Game 1 being on Sunday, meaning they have been off for three days since last playing on Wednesday. That should give him ample time to get rested and ready. Even if Griffin doesn’t play, the Pistons are still good enough to stay within 12.5 points of the Bucks, who are also banged up. The Bucks are likely to be without Malcolm Brogdon, Nikola Mirotic, Pau Gasol and Tony Snell to start the playoffs. And Giannis is banged up with a calf injury. The Bucks did not play well down the stretch with all these injuries, and it’s asking them a lot to cover a spread this high in Game 1 with all their injuries. Dwane Casey is 16-2 ATS after leading their previous game by 20 or more points at halftime in all games he has coached. The Pistons are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Detroit is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games off a win by more than 10 points. The Bucks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 conference quarterfinals games. Roll with the Pistons Sunday. |
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04-14-19 | Thunder +3.5 v. Blazers | Top | 99-104 | Loss | -109 | 32 h 50 m | Show |
20* Thunder/Blazers ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +3.5 I’m surprised the Portland Trail Blazers are actually favored against the Oklahoma City Thunder. They shouldn’t be favored in any game in this series, and as a result I’ll take the Thunder as road underdogs in Game 1 of this series. The Blazers were swept by the Pelicans in the playoffs last year, getting upset despite having home-court advantage. And they are worse off this season with the loss of Jusuf Nurkic. His loss hasn’t been felt to close out the regular season, but it will be felt in the playoffs. Now, Steven Adams’ job just got a whole lot easier, and he’s going to be a big factor in this series. Lillard and McCollum are two great players, but they aren’t good enough on their own to beat the Thunder without Nurkic, and there just isn’t a whole lot of talent outside those two now. The Blazers will regret not losing their final game of the season, which meant they’d face the Thunder instead of the Jazz in the first round. The Blazers are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS against the Thunder this season, and that one-sided dominance is only going to continue. They have no answer for Paul George and Russell Westbrook, who are better than Lillard and McCollum. Portland is 7-24-2 ATS in its last 33 conference quarterfinals games. Bet the Thunder in Game 1 Sunday. |
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04-13-19 | Spurs +6 v. Nuggets | Top | 101-96 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
20* Spurs/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio +6 There aren’t many series that have upset potential, but this is certainly one of them. That’s because the experience and coaching of the Spurs can overcome the young, talented Nuggets in a seven-game series. I think the Spurs have a great chance to steal Game 1. Greg Popovich once again overachieved based on expectations, and let’s not forget the Spurs still have two of the best players in the NBA in Aldridge and DeRozan. They will be prepared for Game 1 tonight. The Nuggets will be making the playoffs for the first time in a long time. They barely missed out on the playoffs on the final day of the season last year. They could have used that experience, and I think nerves will be an issue for them in Game 1 of this series tonight. I also think the fact that Denver recently beat San Antonio by 28 at home has inflated this line. But that was the 2nd of a back-to-back for the Spurs, and nobody throws away back-to-backs like Popovich. In the other three meetings this season, the Spurs won by 8 and 1 at home, and only lost by 3 on the road. The Spurs are 26-8 ATS when revenging a loss this season. San Antonio is 19-2 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season. The Nuggets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven conference quarterfinal games. Take the Spurs in Game 1 Saturday. |
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04-13-19 | Nets v. 76ers -5.5 | 111-102 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
15* Nets/76ers NBA Playoffs Opener on Philadelphia -5.5 We are getting the Philadelphia 76ers cheap because Joel Embiid is doubtful. It would be a bonus if he plays, but I’m not expecting it. I still think the 76ers have enough to win this game by 6-plus points at home over the Nets in Game 1 Saturday. This is a great story that the Nets have put together this year, making the playoffs after being down in the dumps for years. But that also means they’re inexperienced, and I’m not expecting them to be on their ‘A Game’ in Game 1 tonight because of it. Nerves will be an issue, and by the time they settle down it will be too late. The 76ers still have four All-Stars and got their much-needed playoff experience last year. They are still the more talented team with the likes of Simmons, Butler, Harris and Redick. And they will get the job done at home today. Philadelphia is 18-5 ATS after failing to cover four or five of its last six games this season. The 76ers are 20-8 ATS in home games when playing on two days’ rest over the last three seasons. Brooklyn is 14-29 ATS in its last 43 road games after covering the spread in three or more consecutive games. Bet the 76ers in Game 1 Saturday. |