Rating: 2 Units

Dallas stands tied for 7th in the league in goals per game as they average 2.80 goals per contest in postseason play. The Stars stand 4th in the league in goals against as they allow an average of 2.40 goals a night this season. Dallas is 4th when it comes to success on the power play as they convert on 29.2% of their chances with the man advantage this season. Colorado heads into this one 1st in the league in goals per game as they average 4.50 goals a night in the postseason. The Avalanche are 11th in goals against as they allow an average of 3.38 goals a contest. Colorado is tied for 2nd in the league with the man advantage as they convert 33.3% of their chances with the man advantage. 

Rating: 2 Units

Colorado hopes to shake off the slow starts that plagued them in the first two games of this series as they head home for Games 3 and 4. The Avalanche took home ice with their win in Game 1 but they have to be on their toes here to avoid giving it back to the Stars. Colorado heads into this one 1st in the league in goals per game as they average five goals a night in the postseason. The Avalanche are 11th in goals against as they allow an average of 3.29 goals a contest. Colorado is 2nd in the league with the man advantage as they convert 38.1% of their chances with the man advantage.

Rating: 2 Units

It is impossible to ignore how injured the Knicks are right now. OG Anunoby's absence will hurt them on both ends, and they have an excellent record with him. However, Indiana's struggles in the first two games were not with scoring. Rather, their inability to get stops, especially while Brunson is on the floor, is hurting them. The Knicks are constantly getting open shots, hence their 55.4% shooting from the floor. New York's offensive rebounding will wake up eventually if the Pacers do start forcing misses. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Avalanche have won five consecutive playoff games since losing their first-round opener to the Winnipeg Jets. Colorado has shown plenty of offensive punch in that stretch. As much as the Avalanche can take pride in drumming up an impressive comeback victory to kick off this series, they know it is not a long-term recipe for success against the Stars, who finished atop the Western Conference standings in the regular season. Knowing Colorado has the firepower to come back -- led by Nathan MacKinnon, Valeri Nichushkin, Artturi Lehkonen, Mikko Rantanen and defenseman Cale Makar -- is comforting. The Avalanche have 32 goals in six playoff games this year and are the only team averaging more than five goals per game in the postseason. Colorado's cavalcade of talent converted both power-play opportunities in Game 1, and has now clicked for eight goals on 18 chances with the man advantage in the playoffs this year.

Rating: 2 Units

A lot of the ref's calls at the end of game one seemed to favor the Knicks. Regardless, now is not the time for the Pacers to rely on excuses. Rather, they need to keep scoring as they did during the regular season. Game one's 117 was encouraging, as this club is now up to 113.6 points per contest in the postseason. With all of the offense in the world, Indiana still has clear issues defensively. They gave up the fourth-most points per game this season and have followed it up by surrendering 111.7 in the playoffs, more than any other team still alive. In game one, a team that was 26th in defensive rebounding percentage and facing the NBA's best offensive rebounding unit held up nicely. New York only grabbed eight. It didn't matter, as the Knicks hit 53.7% of their field goals, 47.8% of their threes, and attempted 26 free throws. Indiana also forced 14 turnovers to no avail.

Rating: 2 Units

The Lakers don’t lean on 3-point shooting (35.1, 28th in 3-point rate), but they love to pick up the pace (101.0 possessions per 48 minutes, 6th). On the other side, the Pelicans are 25th in the league in 3-point rate (36.5) and 17th in pace (98.7). The total has gone under in four of the Pelicans’ last five outings, and I would ride this betting trend. As mentioned, the Pels have done a great defensive job lately, and I expect to see more of the same when they take on the Lakers. Six of the previous ten encounters between the Pels and Lakers have gone under. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Ducks are having a great season with their offense stepping up and scoring 3.14 goals per game. Frank Vatrano, Mason McTavish, and Ryan Strome have scored 20 goals and 24 assists to lead the top two lines but the rest of the offense has stepped up as well.The offense has stepped up but the defense has struggled, allowing 2.93 goals per game.The Avalanche are having a great season with their offense stepping up and scoring 3.36 goals per game with five goals in their recent game.

Rating: 2 Units

After falling 6-5 to the National League Central-leading Reds on Monday, Chicago tied a club record with seven homers in Tuesday's 20-9 victory. Then Wednesday, the Cubs went deep five times and overcame two three-run deficits for a 16-6 win. The Cubs, who enter Thursday's action in third place in the division but just three games behind the Reds, have averaged 8.1 runs while batting .321 with 30 homers during their current 12-3 stretch. Scheduled Reds starter Luke Weaver comes in with a 2-3 record and 6.80 ERA. Weaver is 1-3 with an 8.59 ERA in seven career starts against the Cubs.

Rating: 2 Units

I do not understand how the Reds keep winning with Weaver taking the mound, but I do know that he is going to give up a bunch of runs in very few innings. He always does. Meanwhile, the Dodgers will turn to Emmet Sheehan, and I suspect his days as a starter are numbered as the Dodgers buy up pieces at the trade deadline. Sheehan has made 6 starts, and he has gotten progressively worse in each one. In his last 3 starts, he has only gotten out of the 4th inning once, and he has given up 17 runs in a combined 12.1 innings. He walked 12 in those 3 starts, and those free bases have usually scored. The devil-may-care Reds shouldn’t have trouble scoring on him either. The weather forecast is for hot temperatures with winds blowing out. Look for plenty of runs to be scored by both sides.

Rating: 2 Units

Today, Cleveland left-hander Logan Allen (3-2, 3.47 ERA) is scheduled to start opposite Pittsburgh right-hander Mitch Keller (9-4, 3.31). Keller, a first-time All-Star after establishing himself as the Pirates' ace this season, pitched one inning in the Midsummer Classic last week. He will have gone a week without pitching since that appearance as Pittsburgh chose not to use him in its first four games following the All-Star break. Before the break, Keller gave up one hit in seven scoreless innings on July 8 at Arizona but did not get a decision as the Diamondbacks came back for a 10-inning win. In his only career appearance against Cleveland, on Sept. 25, 2020, Keller did not get a decision after giving up one run and no hits, with eight walks and three strikeouts, in five innings. Allen, a 24-year-old rookie who has never faced the Pirates, could earn his way back into the rotation after the Guardians went with the bullpen game on Monday.

Rating: 2 Units

Tampa Bay's offense has been one of the best in the league this season and will need to be strong to keep pace with the Rangers, especially if McClanahan struggles for the second-straight start. They average 5.6 runs per game, while averaging .257 and 1.5 home runs per game. Yandy Diaz (.323 average) has been a mainstay getting on base, whole Randy Arozarena (59 RBI) continues to be feared. Texas offense has helped to alleviate pitching problems time after time and their ability to generate run production has been instrumental towards their run to first place. The power has been key for this group and everything starts with Adolis Garcia (24 homeruns, 79 RBI).

Rating: 2 Units

The Guardians have a solid pitching staff when healthy but are lacking in power and timely hitting at the plate. Cleveland is 15th in team batting average with .250 but drops to 22nd in on base percentage with .314 and 27th in slugging percentage with .375. Therefore it is not surprising the Guardians are 27th in runs scored with 369.  Both offenses are struggling and Pittsburgh has failed to score 5 runs in eight consecutive games, meanwhile the Guardians have scored a combined 10 runs in their previous 4 games. 

Rating: 2 Units

The pitching matchup for the series finale features Atlanta left-hander Kolby Allard (0-0, 4.22) against Chicago right-hander Dylan Cease (3-3, 4.30). Allard will make his third start of the season. He pitched five innings against Cleveland on July 4 and allowed three runs on four hits, one walk and three strikeouts. Allard pitched one inning of relief against Tampa Bay in the final game prior to the All-Star Game and allowed two runs in a 10-4 loss. Allard began the season on the injured list with an oblique strain. He was recalled to make a spot start on June 28 and has remained in the rotation. Cease will be making his 20th start of the season and has not had a decision since May 23, a stretch of eight starts, when he beat the Cleveland Guardians. In his most recent appearance on July 7 against St. Louis, Cease pitched six innings and allowed five runs on 11 hits and eight strikeouts. 

Rating: 2 Units

The more encouraging part for Miami might have been third baseman Jean Segura's 3-for-4 performance. He was batting .197 on July 3 but now has multi-hit outings in four of the past five games. Miami's starting pitcher will be left-hander Steven Okert (3-0, 2.43) in what will be his first career start after 201 relief appearances. So this shapes up as a bullpen day for the Marlins as Okert hasn't posted more than two innings in any of his 37 outings this season. Okert is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA all-time against Baltimore.

Rating: 2 Units

Atlanta has the best lineup in baseball, and it hasn’t mattered whether it’s been a lefty or righty pitcher. But more recently, the Braves have been doing better against right-handers. Since June 1, the Braves have a 140 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which is by far the best in baseball. But they also rank 1st in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and ISO against right-handers in that time. All that tells me Lance Lynn could be in for a very, very long day. And after Lynn is a White Sox bullpen that has the 9th highest ERA in the last 30 days. 

Rating: 2 Units

Brayan Bello was spectacular for the Boston Red Sox in his first 14 starts of the season, posting a 3.04 ERA across 80 innings while allowing 2 or fewer earned runs in 11 of his last 12 starts. The time he allowed more than 2 was when Tampa Bay scored 3 off him in 6 innings of work. His hard-hit rate ranks in just the 30th percentile, but his elite ground-ball rate has contributed to a 57th-percentile barrel rate and only 8 home runs allowed. The right-hander has cut down his walk rate from last season as well. His sinker-heavy approach should play well in his matchup today against the Cubs. Chicago ranks just 22nd in wOBA and 23rd in SLG against right-handed sinkers this season. In the last 30 days they are just 25th in wOBA against right-handed pitching overall. Bello uses 3 other offerings in his arsenal, and his 3.77 FIP ranks 28th among 83 pitchers this season with 80 or more innings of work. 

Rating: 2 Units

Pitching for the Giants will be Ross Stripling, who has not exactly been impressive thus far. Stripling is 0-2 with a 6.37 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. He ranks in the lower end of the league for most percentiles including xBA (12th percentile), K% (23rd percentile), xSLG (5th percentile) and hard-hit percentage (14th percentile). He most likely won’t pitch too far into this matchup, but some damage could be done in the short span that he is on the mound. Pitching for the Pirates will be Rich Hill, who has a 7-9 record with a 4.78 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. While these numbers may not exactly be horrible, I expect more regression from Hill. He currently has an xERA of 5.64 and — similar to Stripling — ranks in the lower end of most percentiles. He sits in the 10th percentile for xBA, 10th percentile for xSLG, 35th percentile for K% and 40th percentile for BB%. In the last 4 games Hill has given up 15 runs and 23 hits.

Rating: 2 Units

The All-Star Game has been very low scoring. In 2022, the American League won by a score of 3-2 which cashed the under. Looking at a bigger sample size, the average number of runs in an All-Star Game during the AL’s 9-year winning streak is 6.89. That would come in just under this year’s total of 7.5. Additionally, 10 of the last 14 All-Star Games have ended with 7 or fewer runs. Only once during that span did a game ever reach double-digit runs (14 runs in 2018), so the games have always been closer to staying under the total than going over the number. It’s easy to see why – these are the best pitchers in baseball. Each pitcher knows that they’re only going to get an inning, so there’s no use in nipping at the corners and being careful with certain hitters. Each pitcher is going to go out there and try to get as many strikeouts as they can before the inning is over.

Rating: 2 Units

To say that New York Mets right-hander Max Scherzer has dominated the San Diego Padres throughout his 16 seasons in the majors would be an understatement. In 18 career starts against the Padres, Scherzer is 7-3 with a 2.76 ERA, a 0.910 WHIP and a .185 opponents' batting average while averaging more than 12 strikeouts per nine innings. The results have been even better in San Diego, where he is 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA across seven starts. In his past 10 starts, however, Scherzer is 6-0 with a 3.45 ERA, although he gave up four runs on five hits in six innings on Tuesday against the Arizona Diamondbacks in Phoenix. Musgrove knows the feeling of beginning the season slowly. He was 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in his first five starts. Over his last eight starts, however, Musgrove is 6-0 with a 2.01 ERA. Consider that the under is 19-6-1 in Padres last 26 games with the total set at 8.0-9.5.

Rating: 2 Units

The Boston Red Sox have clicked on all cylinders over their first two games against the Oakland Athletics this weekend. Entering today's series and unofficial first-half finale, Boston has won four straight games and seven out of eight, while scoring 27 runs in just the last three games. The Red Sox have put together seven consecutive games with at least 10 hits after pounding out 15 in Saturday's 10-3 triumph. Cora is expected to use Tayler Scott (0-0, 7.71 ERA) as an opener less than a week after his Red Sox debut. He was acquired from the Dodgers in a trade late last month. While with the Seattle Mariners in 2019, Scott made one relief appearance against the Athletics, surrendering two unearned runs over two innings. Left-hander JP Sears (1-6, 4.09) is scheduled to make his team-leading 18th start for the Athletics, making him their only pitcher to remain in the rotation all season.

Rating: 2 Units

Both pitchers have been solid all season. Gray hasn’t allowed more than 3 earned runs in any start this year. With a 2.50 ERA and 2.84 FIP, Gray posted 0 earned runs and 2 hits allowed in a start against this same Orioles lineup just 6 days ago. Wells is one of only two pitchers in the league with a sub-1 WHIP (0.90). While that is certainly impressive, his consistency might be even more stunning. Wells has gone 6 consecutive starts giving up exactly 2 earned runs. Furthermore, both pitchers have a solid strikeout rate with Wells at 9.03 K/9 and Gray at 9.22 K/9. As long as these pitchers continue their long string of consistent quality starts, the under will be the play. Consider as well, that the under is 10-4 in Twins last 14 overall. 

Rating: 2 Units

There's not much about the Padres' pitching staff that needs to change. The team is sixth in ERA this season. They have a reliever group that's sixth in ERA, 10th in left-on-base percentage, and third in groundball rate. San Diego's rotation has mostly been solid too, although that doesn't apply to Yu Darvish lately. Over his past five starts, the veteran has coughed up 21 runs in 26.0 innings, good for a 7.27 ERA. In four of those five starts, he was responsible for at least four runs. The Mets tagged him for five runs earlier this season, a game that the Padres lost. Consider that the over is 20-7-1 in Mets last 28 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Rating: 2 Units

On the mound for the Marlins will be reigning NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara. Alcantara has been a near opposite of who he was last year, as he currently has a 3-7 record with a 4.93 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. His percentiles are nothing impressive either being that he ranks in the lower end for most. He is currently in the 23rd percentile for xBA, 28th percentile for K%, 46th percentile for average exit velocity and 39th percentile for hard-hit rate. The total for this game is set at 7.5. Alcantara has had 17 starts this season; 12 of them have cleared this total. Additionally, consider that the over is 13-6-1 in Marlins last 20 vs. National League East.

Rating: 2 Units

Philadelphia is averaging 4.52 runs per game. Their .259 batting average is ninth in the league. Their .323 on base percentage is 14th, while their .421 slugging percentage is ninth. Nick Castellanos leads the Phillies with a .312 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team with 22 home runs, while Alec Bohm leads the team with 55 RBI. Tampa Bay is averaging 5.56 runs per game. Their .262 batting average is fourth in the league. Their .334 on base percentage is also fourth, while their .459 slugging percentage is third. Yandy Diaz leads the Rays with a .313 batting average, while Randy Arozarena leads the team with 16 home runs and 58 RBI. Consider at the over is 19-7-5 in Phillies last 31 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

Rating: 2 Units

The A’s are starting Hogan Harris, who has made several starts this season. Harris has a 5.16 ERA, and he has allowed 4 runs in each of his last 2 starts. For the Tigers, Michael Lorenzen will take the mound. The Tigers have lost his last 6 starts and Lorenzen has given up 5 or more runs in 3 of his last 5 outings. The Tigers tend to leave him out there, though, and I think that should lead to some runs. Even with bad offenses leading the charge, both starting pitchers are vulnerable. Neither bullpen is good, either, and Oakland specifically has the worst bullpen in baseball. There should be plenty of opportunity for runs in this one. Consider that the over is 20-8 in Tigers last 28 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Rating: 2 Units

Hendricks struggled in his first start in May after returning from a tear in his shoulder. After his first game back, Hendricks has been money ever since. He’s allowed only 6 runs in his last 26.1 IP, helping him earn his outstanding 2.81 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Despite the fact that it’s a small sample size, Hendricks has been even better on the road. He holds a 1.77 ERA on the road with opposing batters hitting just .114 against him. Milwaukee starter, Miley’s numbers are relatively similar. With a 3.02 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, Miley has been cooking, allowing just 2 earned runs in his last 15.0 IP. Both teams are bottom half of the league in batting average, with the Brewers coming in at 29th, above only the A’s. Consider that the under is 38-17-3 in Cubs last 58 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Rating: 2 Units

The Reds are dealing with injuries to Ben Lively and Hunter Greene and Brett Kennedy has been recalled from the minor leagues to either start or pitch bulk innings. Kennedy has not pitched in the MLB since the 2018 season as a member of the Padres. Kennedy issued a poor 6.75 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP in 26 innings in his lone MLB season. The bullpen has been mediocre, reporting a 4.07 ERA on the season. Washington starter Corbin's numbers aren't strong, recording a 4.84 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP accompanied by a 5-9 record in 96.2 innings pitched on the season. Consider that the over is 16-5 in Reds last 21 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Rating: 2 Units

The current Mariners are 7-for-38 with four extra-base hits, a home run, and six RBI against Logan Webb, who holds a shiny 2.31 ERA at Oracle Park in 2023. But Webb has allowed seven runs (six earned) over his last two home starts (14 IP; 1-1 record), and the Mariners are hitting the right-handers well in the last two weeks, posting a 123 wRC+ and .807 OPS across 273 plate appearances. The Mariners’ bullpen had a bad June, posting a 5.38 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 4.0 K/9, and 1.5 HR/9 (4.94 FIP). In the last ten days, Seattle’s relief pitching has amassed a hideous 7.97 ERA, 5.25 FIP, and .373 opposing BABIP across 20.1 innings of work. Consider that the over is 37-18 in Mariners last 55 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.

Rating: 2 Units

The Twins will give the ball to their ace, Joe Ryan, on Monday night against the Royals. Ryan is 8-5 in 16 starts this season including 11 quality starts. He has allowed 79 hits in 96.2 innings pitched with an ERA of 3.44. Ryan's K/9 rate is a solid 9.8 and his WHIP is 0.97. At home, Ryan is 5-2 in seven starts including four quality starts. He has allowed just 32 hits in 46.2 innings pitched with an ERA of 2.70. His K/9 rate stays steady at 9.8 and his WHIP lowers to a sparkling 0.79. Ryan is 1-0 against the Royals this season after going six innings and allowing three hits and one run back in April. Minnesota took two of three from the host Baltimore Orioles in a series in which it allowed just three runs. However, The Twins scored just two total runs over the last two games. Consider that the under is 21-8-3 in Twins last 32 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockies have been interesting to say the least, alternating wins and losses to close out June. The wins saw the offense put up impressive numbers, while the losses were ugly in almost every way. As a team with middling run production despite a generous home field, that makes sense. Colorado does not command the strike zone, with poor strikeout and walk rates. They don't hit homers or swipe bases either. When a team relies on stringing together hits, they become prone to inconsistent production. Pitching in Coors isn't fun for anyone, including the home team. Connor Seabold actually fares better at home this season, and he can showcase why in this game, even if a 5.24 home ERA isn't a ringing endorsement. Neither is the team's 1-6 record spanning Seabold's last seven starts. Regardless, he gets to face a weak offense, which can get him back on track. Consider that the under is 42-20-3 in Rockies last 65 interleague games.

Rating: 2 Units

So far this weekend, the Baltimore Orioles’ offense has vanished. As the O’s and Twins finish up a series on Sunday, the Twins have won the first two games and are sending one of their best pitchers to the mound. The Orioles have amassed a total of only 7 hits through the first two games in the series, and 1 total run. Either you bank on their struggles continuing, or you bet on the bounce-back positive regression game. Consider that the under is 11-5-1 in Orioles last 17 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Rating: 2 Units

The Guardians are playing well at the moment and they’ve won seven of their last ten games. They are currently tied with Minnesota in the AL Central standings and will try to increase their division lead with a win over the Cubs, which will give them their eighth win in their last 11 games. Cleveland is averaging 4.01 runs per game. Their .249 batting average is 16th in the league. Their .314 on base percentage is 22nd, while their .376 slugging percentage is 26th. Chicago is averaging 4.54 runs per game. Their .247 batting average is 17th in the league. Their .327 on base percentage is 10th, while their .399 slugging percentage is 17th. Consider that the over is 7-3 in Cubs last 10 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Rating: 2 Units

Michael Wacha is on the mound in this one. Wacha missed his last start due to a minor injury and is ready to go. He limited the Giants to only two runs in six innings in his previous start, resulting in another no-decision in a game the Padres lost. The veteran right-hander has been dominant, registering a minuscule 1.54 ERA this month, and is sporting a stellar 2.90 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP complemented by a 7-2 record in 80.2 innings pitched. Wacha posted six shutout innings against the Reds last month and has a stellar 2.57 ERA and a 12-3 record in 133 career innings. Consider that the under is 21-8-1 in Padres last 30 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Rating: 2 Units

Boston starter, Paxton is 1-0 with a 2.20 ERA, a 0.67 WHIP, two walks and 18 strikeouts over 16.1 innings of work. Paxton makes his 11th career start against the Blue Jays in this contest. He comes in 5-3 with a 4.53 ERA, a 1.329 WHIP, 26 walks and 48 strikeouts over 55.2 innings of work against them. Paxton is 4-1 with a 3.93 ERA, a 1.136 WHIP, 18 walk and 28 strikeouts over 34.1 innings in six career starts at Rogers Centre. Toronto starter, Berrios is 2-1 with a 3.57 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, four walks and 17 strikeouts over 17.2 innings of work. Berrios makes his 12th career start against the Red Sox in this contest. He is 1-5 with a 4.15 ERA, a 1.415 WHIP, 19 walks and 66 strikeouts over 65 innings of work against them. Berrios is 16-5 with a 3.34 ERA, a 1.126 WHIP, 35 walks and 182 strikeouts over 183 innings in 31 career starts at Rogers Centre. Consider that the under is 10-2 in Red Sox last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.

Rating: 2 Units

The Padres will have Seth Lugo open the series. Lugo allowed three runs in five innings against the Nationals last time out and was hit with the loss. The veteran right-hander missed over a month due to injury but has been solid upon his return earlier this month. Lugo is sporting a 4.01 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP accompanied by a 3-4 record in 51.2 innings pitched on the season. He limited the Reds to only one run in six innings in a 7-1 win last month and has a minuscule 1.16 ERA and a 2-1 record in 23.1 career innings against the Reds. Reds starter Ashcraft produced his best performance of the season against the Padres, limiting them to one run in six innings in a game the Reds won. Consider that the under is 24-9-1 in Padres last 34 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Rating: 2 Units

White Sox starter Lance Lynn hopes to improve on an awful season as he's allowed 69 runs in 90 innings pitched. Moreover, with a .449 expected opponent Slugging Percentage, a 10.1 Barrel Percentage, and a 4.69 expected ERA, opponents are making hard contact and powering the ball against Lynn to easily drive in runs. Angels starter Patrick Sandoval has shown flashes this year with a 34.8 Hard-Hit Rate but has struggled, allowing 39 runs in 75.2 innings pitched. In addition, with a .276 expected opponent Batting Average, a 16.9 Strikeout Percentage, and a 4.59 expected ERA, opponents are making contact and putting together strong plate appearances against Sandoval to easily drive in runs. Consider as well, that the over is 6-1-1 in Angels last 8 during game 4 of a series.

Rating: 2 Units

Although you can’t put a lot of faith in the starters on the mound today, these offenses have been incredibly unreliable this season. The Guardians are 27th in runs scored (4.02 runs per game) and 22nd in OPB (.311). Meanwhile, the Royals are 28th in runs scored and rank dead last in wOBA (.305). Although Greinke’s numbers haven’t been impressive, his home vs away splits are drastic. He has a 7.04 ERA on the road and a 3.77 ERA at home, including just 11 earned runs in his last 5 home starts. I trust Greinke to have a solid outing in KC against an unreliable offense. Bieber hasn’t been great on the road, allowing 12 earned runs in his last 2 road starts, but facing this lackluster Royals offense is a solid opportunity for him to get back on track. Consider that the under is 13-5 in Guardians last 18 during game 3 of a series.

Rating: 2 Units

The Mets will start rookie Kodai Senga who has a 3.52 ERA through 14 starts with a 6-5 record. Senga has been a solid pitcher especially for a rookie but his run support has been dwindling. The Mets have scored 3 runs or less in 4 of Senga’s last 6 starts. He will be opposed by Wade Miley for the Brewers. He has a 2.91 ERA through 10 starts with a 5-2 record. He has been fantastic in his last 3 starts allowing 3 runs or less. With these 2 starters on the mound, and both teams struggling at the plate, I like the under in this game. The Brewers are bottom 3% of the league in xBA and only average 4.10 runs per game. The Mets have better hitting statistics throughout the season but their record over the last 20 games says otherwise. Consider that the under is 39-17-4 in Brewers last 60 vs. a team with a losing record.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams are starting very questionable starting pitchers. For the Braves, Kolby Allard will make his season debut. He’s not a terribly good pitcher, and he probably wouldn’t be making a start if not for the total decimation of the Braves’ pitching staff. He is fortunate that the Twins are just about the worst team in the league against left-handed pitching. Still, Allard should not be in the game long, and I think if they are going to hit anyone, the Twins should hit a below-average lefty making his season debut. The Twins are going with Kenta Maeda who gets to face what might be the nastiest offense in baseball, and the Braves are also the hottest team in the league right now. It’s going to be a long day for Maeda. Consider that the over is 35-17-3 in Twins last 55 interleague road games.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockies have lost eight of their last 10 games and four of their last seven home games. They have struggled offensively and scored 11 runs in their last three games. Their offensive struggle will continue in this game because they haven't hit the ball well against left-handers and Kershaw has done well in the mound for the Dodgers in recent starts, giving up four runs in his last four starts. He gave up one run in his last two starts against the Rockies and will keep their offense in check once again. Consider that the under is 20-7-2 in Dodgers last 29 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

Rating: 2 Units

Cole Irvin (1-3, 7.71 ERA) will start for the Orioles in the series opener. The left-hander, who will make just his sixth start of the season, last appeared in relief, allowing a run on two hits and a walk in one inning of a 7-2 loss at Tampa Bay on Wednesday. In his last start, Irvin took the loss, allowing three runs on five hits with four strikeouts and a walk in four innings as the Orioles fell 10-3 to the host Chicago Cubs on June 16. Irvin's only two appearances against the Reds in his career came in relief stints for the Phillies in 2019, when he pitched 2 1/3 innings over two games. Baltimore draws a matchup against the Reds’ struggling Brandon Williamson. The left-hander struggled in 34 AAA innings this season, allowing a 6.62 ERA and 6.58 FIP while generating a 7.15 K/9 and walking 5.29 batters per 9 innings. He was still called up, and the struggles have continued at the major league level. Through 7 starts Williamson has allowed 3 or more earned runs 5 times while posting a 5.40 ERA. Consider that the over is 10-4 in Reds last 14 interleague road games.

Rating: 2 Units

The second game of the series between the Angels and Rockies will feature Griffin Canning for the visitors and Chase Anderson for the home team. While this may not seem like the greatest pitching matchup – it actually is. Canning has been great recently with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 3 starts this month as well as allowing 3 earned runs or less in 6 consecutive outings. On Saturday night, he will face a Colorado lineup that has struggled to produce in June. The Rockies owned a 70 wRC+ heading into Friday night’s game which is the 2nd-worst rate in the game during that time. Without Charlie Blackmon, Kris Bryant and CJ Cron, the Rockies offense has been non-existent. Consider that the under is 33-16-5 in Angels last 54 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

Rating: 2 Units

The walls have been backed up a bit, and seating has been added that shrinks the foul ball territory in London Stadium. The wall in the center field is still only 392 feet though, although it does stand 16 feet tall in dead center. Down the lines is 330 feet, and while London itself is a windy play (the Cubs should feel right at home!), the stadium was built to minimize those winds for the 2012 Olympics, so wind shouldn’t be a major factor. I don’t expect this stadium to play Mexico City crazy, even if the expected run total is elevated a bit. I still like Justin Steele to keep the ball on the ground and limit the Cardinals in the early innings, and while Wainwright is not great at this point in his career, I would be surprised if he doesn’t at least post a competitive performance on the big stage. Consider that the under is 31-15-5 in Cubs last 51 games following an off day.

Rating: 2 Units

The Angels arrive in Denver on the heels of being shut out in consecutive home games by the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Angels had won 11 of 14 games before their bats went silent. They lost both games by 2-0 scores and had just five hits on Tuesday and two on Wednesday. Luis Rengifo had both hits on Wednesday when the Dodgers used seven pitchers during a bullpen game. Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout each were hitless in seven at-bats in the series. Trout has 15 homers but has driven in just 39 runs while batting .250. His average is 50 points below his career mark. The Angels are attempting to fight through a recent injury bug that has seen shortstop Zach Neto (oblique) and third baseman Anthony Rendon (wrist) go on the 10-day injured list, with infielder Gio Urshela (fractured pelvis) likely done for the season. Consider that the under is 20-7-1 in Angels last 28 games following an off day.

Rating: 2 Units

Recent history suggests the Boston Red Sox will be in good hands Friday night when right-hander Brayan Bello takes the mound for the start of a three-game road series against the Chicago White Sox. In his past nine starts, Bello has a 2.60 ERA. The 24-year-old has allowed no more than two earned runs in eight of those outings. Bello (4-4, 3.49 ERA) has pitched at least seven innings in three of his past five starts. Bello, who dealt with forearm tightness in spring training, was especially impressive in his past two starts, both of which were against the New York Yankees. He struck out a career-high eight batters in seven innings during Boston's 4-1 triumph over New York on Sunday. He held the Yankees to one run on four hits and three walks. In his previous outing, Bello allowed two runs on three hits in seven innings to help the Red Sox post a 3-2 victory over New York. He fanned three and walked two. Consider that the under is 10-2 in White Sox last 12 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Rating: 2 Units

The Royals rotation took a hit in May with the loss of righty Brad Keller. Keller is still rehabbing at the moment and is still likely a few weeks away. The team has several options to take the ball on Thursday but all will likely serve strictly as an opener against the powerful Rays' lineup. After going five innings in his last outing on June 16th, the most obvious choice to get the start is right-hander Mike Mayers. He is 1-2 in six appearances this season, including two starts. He has an ERA of 6.15, a WHIP of 1.63, and has allowed 17 hits in 26.1 innings of work. Consider that the over is 16-5 in Rays last 21 home games.

Rating: 2 Units

Atlanta is averaging 5.47 runs per game. Their .269 batting average is second in the league. Their .339 on base percentage is also second, while their .479 slugging percentage leads the league. Philadelphia is averaging 4.41 runs per game. Their .259 batting average is ninth in the league. Their .322 on base percentage is 14th, while their .419 slugging percentage is 11th. Consider that the over is 21-9 in Braves last 30 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Rating: 2 Units

Zac Gallen takes the ball for the Diamondbacks. He is the frontrunner for the NL Cy Young at the moment, and he has simply been fantastic this season. In his last outing, he threw 7 innings of 1-run baseball while striking out 7 Guardians. That is important because the Guards have the 2nd-lowest K rate in baseball. Let’s just say the Brewers are a little lower down the list (27th, actually). Oh, and the Brewers also have the third-lowest batting average against right-handed pitching. This should be a Gallen game all the way. But Milwaukee is throwing Julio Teheran, who is in the midst of a career resurgence. The regression police have been screaming about his 1.78 ERA for a month now, but all Teheran has done is make five starts, give up a total of six earned runs, and never more than two in a game. Consider that the under is 35-15-4 in Brewers last 54 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Rating: 2 Units

Matt Olson has been a big threat against the Phillies this season, smashing two homers and five RBIs complemented by a 1 OPS. The veteran first baseman is having an outstanding season, collecting 20 bombs with 51 RBIs and an .850 OPS. Olson has knocked in eight runs in his last eight games. The Braves are posting an average of 5.49 runs, good for third. JT Realmuto is swinging a hot bat, clubbing three homers and seven RBIs in his last six games. The veteran catcher struggled last month but has rebounded with a dazzling 1.019 OPS in June. The Phillies are averaging 4.44 runs on the year, marking them 17th. The pitching staff has reported a 4.28 team ERA, placing them 17th. Consider that the over is 26-9-2 in Braves last 37 road games vs. a team with a winning record.

Rating: 2 Units

The Brewers have lost six of their last eight games but they’ve won five of their last nine home games. They have played well offensively at home, scoring 16 runs in their last three home games. Expect them to play well offensively in this game because they have hit the ball well against right-handers and Kelly has struggled on the mound in recent starts, especially on the road where he has given up eight runs in his last three starts. He gave up four runs in his last two starts against the Brewers and will have a hard time slowing them down in this game. The Diamondbacks have lost three of their last five games. Despite their slump, they have played well offensively, scoring 15 runs in their last three games. Consider that the over is 14-6-1 in Brewers last 21 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Rating: 2 Units

Neither pitcher has been very good lately. Zack Greinke is clearly in the twilight of his career, and he has given up 8 runs in his last 2 starts. He rarely goes beyond 5 innings either, and any time the Royals’ bullpen gets involved, that is risky business. The Angels will start Tyler Anderson, who has given up 5, 4, and 6 earned runs in his last 3 starts. He has fallen apart lately, and even the Royals should be poised to hit him hard. With both pitchers struggling, this seems like a good time to play the over, especially since we had 19 runs on the board on Saturday. Consider that the over is 5-2 in Royals last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cardinals and Mets complete their series on Sunday afternoon after splitting the first 2 games. The Mets won 6-1 on Friday, while the Cardinals won 5-3 on Saturday. Neither game has gone over today’s run total, and that has a lot to do with the struggling offenses for both teams. The Mets are really missing Pete Alonso in the middle of their order, while the Cardinals have been cold for most of the last 2 weeks. The higher run total is a reflection of the below-average pitchers going on Sunday, but I still prefer to fade these offenses. Consider that the under is 14-5-1 in Cardinals last 20 overall.

Rating: 2 Units

The A’s will turn to James Kaprielian, who is not a good pitcher at all, and his 6.89 ERA and 1.71 WHIP is a pretty accurate indication of who he is. He has been better than that of late, but I would expect the Phillies to knock him around quite a bit on Saturday. The Phillies will be calling up Christopher Sanchez, who began his career with the Rays, but they moved on from him, and that is telling for a pitcher. He has made a few appearances for Philadelphia over the past couple of years, mostly in relief. He is nothing to be excited about, and he is probably just a “whoever we can call up” move. There is no reason Oakland can’t put some runs on him as well. The wind should be blowing out in Oakland, which matters more in the afternoon than in the night games. And with both starting pitchers vulnerable, this should be a good day to score. Consider that the over is 32-15-5 in Phillies last 52 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

Rating: 2 Units

Gunnar Henderson is considered one of the Orioles' top prospects and is delivering at the plate, accumulating a remarkable nine RBIs in his last six games. The 21-year-old third baseman now has 10 homers with 26 RBIs and a .792 OPS. The O’s are dealing with injuries as Mullins and Mountcastle remain out. Baltimore is averaging 4.99 runs per game, marking them sixth. The pitching staff is carrying a 4.13 team ERA, placing them 12th. Seiya Suzuki has been slumping at the dish in recent weeks, recording three RBIs and a .600 OPS on the month. The 28-year-old slugger is one of the Cubs best hitters, knocking in 22 runs along with an .822 OPS. Suzuki went 2 for 8 with no RBIs against the Orioles last season and 1 for 5 on Friday. Chicago is heating up at the plate and is averaging 4.49 runs on the year, ranking them 16th. The pitching has reported a 4.17 team ERA, positioning them 14th. Consider that the over is 13-5 in Orioles last 18 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Rating: 2 Units

Baltimore averages 5.00 runs per game (6th) and hits .253 (14th) with a .749 OPS (10th). The O's have hit 80 home runs (11th) and stolen 53 bases (9th) this year. The pitching staff sports a 4.15 ERA (13th) and a 1.33 WHIP (19th). Chicago scores 4.40 runs per game (20th) and hits .247 (17th) with a .720 OPS (15th). The Cubs have hit 74 home runs (17th) and stolen 47 bases (16th) this season. The pitching staff has compiled a 4.20 ERA (15th) and a 1.28 WHIP (13th). Consider that the over is 12-5 in Orioles last 17 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Rating: 2 Units

Austin Gomber takes the ball on getaway day for the Rockies as he makes his 14th start of the season in this contest. He comes in 4-5 with a 7.57 ERA, a 1.747 WHIP, 27 walks and 39 strikeouts while allowing a league-high 16 homers in 60.2 innings of work this season. Gomber took the loss in his last start, which came against the Padres at home Saturday. He threw four innings, allowing seven runs on 11 hits with two walks and one strikeout in a game the Rockies dropped 9-6. In his last three starts, Gomber is 0-1 with a 12.66 ERA, a 3.09 WHIP, eight walks and eight strikeouts over 10.2 innings of work. This marks his first career outing against the Red Sox in his 113th career major league appearance and 69th start. As a result, Gomber makes his first career start at Fenway Park in this contest as well. Consider that the over is 14-6-1 in Red Sox last 21 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter.

Rating: 2 Units

Pitching hasn't been quite as formidable in Phoenix, even with all of the winning. Zach Davies and his 6.75 home ERA in 2023 probably won't help that cause. He's pitched 13.1 innings at home this year and allowed 10 runs, all earned. In those 13.1 innings, Davies has given up 17 hits and seven walks, with only 10 strikeouts to combat them. If there's any hope, it's that Davies currently has the lowest FIP of his career thanks to only two home runs allowed. The Diamondbacks bullpen is middling, although the back end has stabilized lately, so his goal should be handing the ball to one of the finishing arms rather than a bridge guy. Arizona's offense can bail him out, but things would be easier if they didn't have to. Consider that the over is 32-15-4 in Phillies last 51 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

Rating: 2 Units

Despite the loss of Alvarez, the Astros still have one of the more potent lineups in the big leagues. One positive sign is the recent success of DH/1B Jose Abreau. Abreau is hitting .304 in his last five games and seems to have found his power stroke with two home runs and six RBI. The Astros are hitting .260 against left-handers this season and should be able to flood the bases against Corbin, who has allowed 20 more hits than innings pitched this season. His ERA also jumps over a run on the road this season and he will likely find the short porch in left field not to his liking. Consider that the over is 11-5 in Astros last 16 during game 1 of a series.

Rating: 2 Units

Arizona starter, Henry makes his third career start against the Phillies in this contest. He comes in 1-1 with an 8.38 ERA, a 1.862 WHIP, six walks and nine strikeouts over 9.2 innings of work against them. Henry is 2-3 with a 4.08 ERA, a 1.338 WHIP, 20 walks and 33 strikeouts over 46.1 innings of work in nine career appearances, eight starts, at Chase Field. Philadelphia starter, Covey makes his third career appearance and second start against the Diamondbacks in this contest. He comes in 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, one walk and seven strikeouts over 7.1 innings of work against them. His lone start at Chase Field was a disaster as he took the loss while with the White Sox back on May 23, 2017. Covey threw 2.1 innings, allowing four runs on five hits with no walks and one strikeout in a game Chicago dropped 5-4. Consider that the over is 17-5-4 in Phillies last 26 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

Rating: 2 Units

Oakland’s pitching isn’t very good, with the team giving up 6.56 runs per game. Opponents have a .274 batting average against the Athletics, which is 29th in the league. Their 6.40 ERA is 30th, as is their 1.60 WHIP. Tampa Bay is averaging 5.73 runs per game. Their .262 batting average is fourth in the league. Their .338 on base percentage is second, while their .474 slugging percentage leads the league. Consider that the over is 15-4-2 in Athletics last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Rating: 2 Units

The Padres average 4.24 runs per game (22nd) and hit .227 (27th) with a .709 OPS (22nd). They've hit 74 homers (12th) and stolen 49 bases (10th) in 2023. The SD pitching staff has compiled a 3.78 ERA (9th) and a 1.24 WHIP (8th) with 27 quality starts. Colorado scores 4.48 runs per game (16th) and hits .259 (9th) with a .722 OPS (16th). It's hit 51 home runs (27th) and stolen 26 bases (30th) in the 2023 season. The Rockies' pitching staff sports a 5.28 ERA (29th) and a 1.50 WHIP (29th) with 15 quality starts. Consider that the under is 38-15-1 in Padres last 54 overall.

Rating: 2 Units

For the White Sox, they tab RHP Lucas Giolito for the home start.  He was brilliant last time out against the New York Yankees on the road, twirling six scoreless and hitless innings before being yanked at 100 pitches. He enters with back-to-back wins for the first time this season, so that’s why it is difficult to pick a side in this one. Instead, it’s better to roll with the Under. The Under is also 3-0 in the past three for the White Sox, and 7-1 across the past eight outings for the southsiders. There were just three runs in the series opener Friday, and six total runs on Saturday. I don’t see many more in the daytime finale.

Rating: 2 Units

On Friday night in game one of the series, the Rangers' potent offense was held to just three hits in an 8-3 loss. Leody Tavaras had two of those hits with two solo home runs. The Tampa Bay Rays are back on another hot streak after sweeping the AL Central-leading Twins this week. In the series, Tampa outscored the Twins 13-3 and improved their run differential to +135, second only to the incoming Rangers. Texas has scored a major-league-high 389 runs this season (Tampa Bay is second with 380), and the Rangers have scored at least six runs in 12 of their past 25 games. Texas has scored at least 10 runs in 16 games this season, the best total in the big leagues. The Rays are next with eight double-digit games. Consider that the over is 10-3 in Rays last 13 home games.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cardinals opened the series with a 7-4 victory Friday night for their second straight victory. Cincinnati is posting an average of 4.60 runs per game, ranking them 12th. The pitching staff has recorded a 5.04 team ERA, pegging them 27th. Reds' starter Andrew Abbott is making just his second career big league outing and his first career road start. I expect the veteran lineup to get to the rookie. Consider that the over is 14-6-1 in Cardinals last 21 home games.

Rating: 2 Units

Cincinnati’s pitching hasn’t been good, with the team giving up 5.16 runs per game. Opponents have a .263 batting average against the Reds, which is 26th in the league. Their 5.02 ERA is 27th, while their 1.44 WHIP is 26th. In his last start, Lively gave up six hits and five runs in seven innings, leading to a 5-1 loss to Milwaukee. St. Louis’ pitching hasn’t been good, with the team giving up 4.59 runs per game. Opponents have a .270 batting average against the Cardinals, which is 28th in the league. Their 4.23 ERA is 16th, while their 1.44 WHIP is 27th. In his last start, Montgomery gave up four hits and four runs in 5.2 innings, leading to a 4-3 loss to Pittsburgh. Consider that the over is 11-5 in Reds last 16 overall.

Rating: 2 Units

The Dodgers were able to salvage the finale of their 3-game series in Cincinnati, winning 6-0 on Thursday behind LHP Clayton Kershaw. Now, Los Angeles turns to RHP Michael Grove looking to make it two in a row after getting outmuscled by the Reds on Tuesday and Wednesday. Grove has been dismal, going 0-2 with an 8.14 ERA in 21 innings across 5 starts with a 1.52 WHIP. In his 2 starts on the road, he has been even worse, conceding 11 runs in just 6 1/3 innings. The Phillies counter with LHP Ranger Suarez, and he hasn’t exactly been the picture of consistency this season, either. Suarez has made 5 starts with 24 2/3 innings, posting a subpar 5.47 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. At home, he has been hammered for 9 runs and 10 hits in just 7 innings across 2 starts, good for an 11.57 ERA. Consider that the over is 20-8 in Dodgers last 28 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Rating: 2 Units

The Orioles will give the ball to right-hander Tyler Wells on Friday night. Wells is 4-2 in 12 appearances, 11 starts. He has an ERA of 3.29 while throwing 68.1 innings and giving up 44 hits. Wells' K/9 rate is 9.2 and he has a WHIP of 0.85. At home this season, Wells is 2-2 in six starts with an ERA of 2.45. He has three quality starts at home and has allowed 24 hits in 36.2 innings this season. He has a K/9 rate of 9.8 and a WHIP of 0.79. Consider that the under is 16-5-1 in Royals last 22 road games.

Rating: 2 Units

The Blue Jays and Astros conclude their 4-game series today in Toronto and today’s matchup will feature two hot pitchers. Jose Berrios will start for the Blue Jays and he’s finally looking like the player the Jays thought they were getting 2 years ago. Berrios is 5-4 this year with a 3.66 ERA and he’s allowed only 2 runs in his last 3 starts. After a strong showing from the Astros in the first game between these teams, they’ve been shut down by Toronto’s pitchers since, scoring just 3 runs in the past 2 games. They’ve faced Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt, who have both been pitching great, but Berrios will not make it easier for the Astros’ hitters. Framber Valdez will start for the visiting Astros, and he’s also had a great year. Valdez is 6-4 with a 2.16 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP and has allowed only 1 run in his last 3 starts. The Blue Jays have been hot lately but the biggest factor in their recent success has been their pitching. Offensively, the Jays haven’t been bad, but they haven’t exploded either. The Blue Jays have allowed 2 or fewer runs in 8 of their last 12 games. Toronto has also struggled against lefties this year, ranking 22nd in the league in OPS compared to 4th in the league against righties. This game has all the signs pointing towards a great pitching matchup and I’m expecting both teams to be shut down.

Rating: 2 Units

The White Sox and Yankees will play a doubleheader on Thursday after Wednesday’s game was cancelled due to poor air quality. It was an eerie scene. Hopefully things are better on Thursday. The White Sox won the first game of the series 3-2. The Yankees are currently playing without Aaron Judge, and while they still have plenty of bats, it will be tough to adjust to the absence of their best player. Both teams are slated to start pitchers who are looking to rebound from disastrous starts last week. Luis Severino will make only his fourth start of the season for the Yankees, and he gave up 7 runs a week ago. His first 2 starts, however, were excellent, so there is reason to think the last game was an outlier. The Sox will start Lance Lynn. Lynn has struggled for much of the season, but he had strung together 3 quality starts before giving up 8 runs last week. Again, there is some recent trajectory that gives hope of a good start today. We should also remember that the Yankees have one of the best bullpens in baseball, and that should help to suppress scoring too. Neither of these teams hits very well against right-handed pitching, and again, the Yankees are down their best hitter. Under these circumstances, I like the under, even though the line is low.

Rating: 2 Units

Minnesota has struggled when it comes to putting runs on the board of late and Lopez hasn’t been able to sustain his quick start in his first season with the franchise. He’s been roughed up of late, as an ERA over six in his last three starts bears out, and facing a Tampa Bay team with plenty of dangerous hitters in their lineup isn’t a cure for what ails you. Tampa Bay is a very good offensive team. Consider that the over is 33-15-3 in Twins last 51 on astroturf.

Rating: 2 Units

Chicago turns to RHP Lucas Giolito, who has been money at home, going 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA and .205 opponent batting average. However, he hasn’t been able to bring that solid pitching with him on the road, going just 1-3 with 5.68 ERA and .292 OBA with 14 walks and six homers allowed in just 31 2/3 innings in six starts away from home. The Yankees turn to RHP Clarke Schmidt, who has been a little better lately. Still, he has been hammered for a 5.01 ERA and 1.51 WHIP overall this season. While he is 2-2 with a 3.52 ERA in 30 2/3 innings in six May starts, he has allowed two or more walks in five of those six starts, while coughing up at least five hits in five of those outings, too. He is just 1-4 with a 4.68 ERA with six homers and 11 walks allowed in 32 2/3 innings in seven outings in front of the home fans. Consider that the over is 14-5 in Yankees last 19 games following a win.

Rating: 2 Units

Houston hasn't been their best offensively in 2023. Their greatest strength is putting the ball in play, as they're eighth in strikeout rate this season. The Astros may have to play this series without All-Star Jose Altuve though. He injured his oblique on Saturday against the Angels. He's only played 11 games this season, another reason why the Astros aren't one of MLB's top offenses as they were in 2022. Consider that the under is 15-5-1 in Astros last 21 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

Rating: 2 Units

In his last start, Miller took the loss as he was roughed up by the Yankees at home Monday night. He threw 4.2 innings, allowing eight runs on 11 hits with no walks and three strikeouts in a 10-4 Seattle defeat. Over his last three starts, Miller is 1-2 with a 5.82 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, two walks and 13 strikeouts over 17 innings of work. In his seventh career major league start, Miller pitches against the Rangers for the first time. He makes his first career start at Globe Life Field in this contest. Prior to his recall, Miller was 0-2 with a 6.41 ERA, a 1.322 WHIP, three walks and 18 strikeouts over 19.2 innings in four starts with Double-A Arkansas of the Texas League. Consider that the over is 15-5-2 in Rangers last 22 home games.

Rating: 2 Units

The Chicago White Sox will look to complete the 3-game sweep over the Detroit Tigers in their game today. There’s been little offense for both teams in this series, and pitching has dominated so far. For the White Sox, Michael Kopech will start and he’s 3-5 with a 4.52 ERA. Before getting hit around by the Angels in his last start, he had back-to-back starts going 7+ innings without allowing a run. Despite only going 4.1 innings against the Angels, he threw 10 strikeouts as the strikeout continues to be a big part of his game. Kopech generally finds success against weaker lineups such as the Royals and Guardians, so the Tigers, given their current struggles, shouldn’t give him a rough outing. Matthew Boyd will start for the visiting Tigers and he’s 3-4 with a 5.96 ERA. Boyd gave up 5 runs in his latest start but only 1 in his start before that.. The Tigers’ bullpen has surprisingly pitched really well this season and the past 2 games against the White Sox has not been an exception. If Boyd doesn’t make it deep into this game, which he typically doesn’t, they should be backed by a deep bullpen that’s shut down the Sox so far. The White Sox have continued to struggle offensively but thanks to their pitching staff, 5 runs in 2 games has given them 2 wins. Consider that the under is 45-21-3 in Tigers last 69 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Rating: 2 Units

If you look up the definition of dominant, Sonny Gray pitching at home would be the synonym. The veteran has been absolutely incredible this season with a 1.94 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 11 starts, so it’s hard to believe he’s been even better at home, but it’s true. At Target Field, Gray has a 1.27 ERA with a 0.862 WHIP in 6 starts. He’s limited hitters to a .198 batting average and .520 OPS during those 35.1 innings at home. The under is 4-2 when Gray starts at home, and as you might have guessed, the 2 times the total went over was due to the excess scoring from Minnesota, which I don’t see happening against Allen. It’s also important to note that this is Gray’s second start of the season against the Guardians, and the first one ended with just 7 runs. However, that was with Cleveland scoring 3 runs on just 4 hits and having just a .211 batting average and .179 xBA against Gray. Both bullpens are still well rested since Thursday’s game featured an excellent starting pitching matchup, so runs should be scarce from the first pitch to the last. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Reds have a team .290 batting average, .363 on base percentage, and are averaging six runs over their last 10 games. While the Cincinnati offense has been flourishing the Brewers bats have been colder than the beer in a Milwaukee winter. Milwaukee has an .183 team batting average, .270 on base percentage, and is averaging only 3.1 runs per game over their last 10. Consider that the under is 34-15-4 in Brewers last 53 vs. a team with a losing record.

Rating: 2 Units

The Red Sox average 5.23 runs per game (4th) and hit .264 (4th) with a .769 OPS (5th). Boston has hit 65 home runs (16th) and stolen 31 bases (24th) this season. The pitching staff has a 4.65 ERA (25th) and a 1.32 WHIP (16th). Tampa Bay scores 5.86 runs per game (2nd) and hits .267 (2nd) with a .829 OPS (1st). It's leading MLB in homers (103) and stolen bases (77). The Rays' pitching staff sports a 3.69 ERA (7th) and a 1.21 WHIP (5th). Consider that the over is 15-5 in Rays last 20 overall.

Rating: 2 Units

Even with Marcus Stroman eying a third straight strong start, the Cubs face a daunting task by trying to keep the visiting Rays from handing them a fifth straight defeat today in the opener of a three-game series. Tampa Bay is a major-league-best 39-16 and leads the majors in several offensive categories, including runs (335), batting average (.273), on-base-plus-slugging percentage (.848) and homers (101). The Rays totaled 38 runs in taking four of their last five following Sunday's wild 11-10 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Chicago is 11-24 since opening 11-6 and has been outscored 35-11 during their current four-game skid. Chicago has an 8.00 ERA in those last four games, with its starters having allowed 17 earned runs and 29 hits over 17 1/3 innings. Consider that the over is 21-8-1 in Rays last 30 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Rating: 2 Units

The Phillies are hitting .238/.320/.391 with six home runs and 12 extra-base hits in the last seven days and 202 at-bats. Bryson Stott has gone 8-for-21 with a couple of dingers in that span, and Bryce Harper has accounted for seven hits and a home run across 20 at-bats.  Atlanta’s pitching staff has amassed an underwhelming 4.32 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and .267 opposing batting average in the last couple of weeks. During that span, the Braves’ lineup has slashed .257/.313/.483 with 25 home runs and 24 doubles through 439 at-bats. Marcell Ozuna has gone 18-for-44 with five round-trippers, and Ronald Acuna has slugged four dingers and three doubles in his previous 53 at-bats while stealing seven bases. The Over is on a 7-2-1 run in this rivalry despite Saturday's 2-1 Phillies' win and 19-7 in Braves last 26 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Rating: 2 Units

NY scores 4.35 runs per game (20th) and hits .243 (19th) with a .714 OPS (19th). It's hit 58 long balls (16th) and stolen 35 bases (15th) in 2023. The Mets' pitching staff sports a 4.57 ERA (23rd) and a 1.34 WHIP (22nd) with 12 quality starts. Colorado scores 4.40 runs per game (18th) and hits .256 (13th) with a .716 OPS (18th). It's hit 42 home runs (26th) and stolen 18 bases (30th) in 2023. The Rockies' pitching staff sports a 5.04 ERA (28th) and a 1.48 WHIP (29th) with 12 quality starts. Consider that the under is 11-5 in Rockies last 16 vs. National League East.

Rating: 2 Units

The Reds are scoring an average of 4.43 runs per game, ranking them 16th. The pitching staff has posted a 4.90 team ERA, pegging them 28th. The Cubs are averaging 4.60 runs on the year, landing them 10th. The pitching staff is carrying a 4.24 team ERA, positioning them 16th. Consider that the over is 20-7 in Reds last 27 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Rating: 2 Units

Arizona is averaging 5.14 runs per game. Their .264 batting average is fifth in the league. Their .329 on base percentage is eighth, while their .436 slugging percentage is sixth. Arizona’s pitching hasn’t been good, with the team giving up 4.84 runs per game. Opponents have a .245 batting average against the Diamondbacks, which is 16th in the league. Their 4.49 ERA is 22nd, while their 1.33 WHIP is 19th. Boson’s pitching hasn’t been good, with the team giving up 5.10 runs per game. Opponents have a .255 batting average against the Red Sox, which is 24th in the league. Their 4.82 ERA is 25th, while their 1.34 WHIP is 21st. In his last start, Whitlock gave up eight hits and five runs in four innings. Consider that the over is 20-8-1 in Red Sox last 29 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Rating: 2 Units

Gausman makes his 10th career start against the Twins in this contest. He comes in 0-4 with a 6.36 ERA, a 1.393 WHIP, nine walks and 53 strikeouts over 46.2 innings of work against them. Gausman is 0-1 with a 6.57 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, four walks and 30 strikeouts over 24.2 innings in five career starts at Target Field. The Blue Jays hope Gausman can pitch late into the game after Thursday's starter, Alek Manoah, went just three innings. The Twins plan to counter with right-hander Louie Varland. Consider that the over is 10-1 in Blue Jays last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

Rating: 2 Units

Lynn has a 6.28 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and his home run to fly ball ratio of 19.47% is nearly double the league average. Lynn has also surrendered 65 hits through 57.1 innings pitched. Expect the Tigers to take advantage of that, which should result in runs on the board. Wentz’s numbers are even worse than Lynn’s. He has a 7.45 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, and 49 hits allowed through 38.2 innings pitched. His last 2 starts have resulted in him not making it through to the 3rd inning, allowing 16 hits and 9 earned runs in those games. With these pitchers allowing a combined 74 runs in 19 starts, expect the trend to continue. 

Rating: 2 Units

Reds’ starter Hunter Greene is having a disappointing season. He has served up a whopping seven home runs in his last four starts and has recorded a brutal 6.95 ERA this month. Chicago is scoring an average of 4.81 runs on the season, good for 11th. Seiya Suzuki continues to deliver, clubbing four homers with seven RBIs in his last seven games. The 28-year-old slugger now has 19 RBIs and a stellar .873 OPS on the season. He posted eight RBIs against the Reds last year and did not play in the first series against the Reds. Consider that the over is 16-6 in Reds last 22 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Rating: 2 Units

Looking at this pitching matchup, it’s hard to not like the over. Kyle Gibson holds an ERA of 4.27 while Clarke Schmidt’s is up to 6.00, so neither pitcher has been missing bats recently. For Schmidt, his role in the rotation is starting to seem less certain after each start, and if he can’t put together a quality start against this AL East opponent, questions are going to be raised about reorganizing the New York rotation. In 10 starts this year, Schmidt has allowed at least 3 runs in 7 of the 10 starts – and that includes against the Orioles. The right-hander faced Baltimore at Camden Yards at the beginning of April and didn’t make it through 4 innings. He was shelled for 4 runs, 5 hits and 3 walks in just 3.1 innings in a game that ended with 13 runs scored. Going from Camden Yards to Yankee Stadium only benefits the hitters more, and that leads me to believe we’re in for another high-scoring affair.

Rating: 2 Units

San Diego scores 3.94 runs per game (25th) and hits .225 (30th) with a .702 OPS (22nd). It's hit 54 home runs (17th) and stolen 29 bases (21st) this season. The SD pitching staff has a 3.92 ERA (11th) and a 1.25 WHIP (10th) with 20 quality starts. While the Nationals score 4.10 runs per game (24th) and hit .263 (5th) with a .707 OPS (19th). They've hit 36 long balls (29th) and stolen 24 bases (27th) this year. The Washington pitching staff has compiled a 4.40 ERA (19th) and a 1.43 WHIP (25th) with 18 quality starts. Consider that the under is 20-6-1 in Padres last 27 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Rating: 2 Units

Chicago is scoring an average of 4.78 runs on the season, good for 10th. The pitching has been exploited recently and they now have a 4.17 team ERA, tabbing them 15th. While New York is averaging 4.31 runs on the season, ranking them 19th. The pitching staff has recorded a subpar 4.68 team ERA, placing them 24th. Consider that the over is 20-7-1 in Mets last 28 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Rating: 2 Units

The Orioles score 5.11 runs per game (7th) and hit .254 (13th) with a .757 OPS (9th). They've hit 58 long balls (11th) and stolen 43 bases (5th) this year. NY averages 4.61 runs (12th) and hits .236 (22nd) with a .728 OPS (14th). It's hit 73 homers (4th) and stolen 37 bases (11th) this season. Consider that the over is 7-3 in Yankees last 10 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Rating: 2 Units

The Texas Rangers are in the top 3 in four major hitting statistics. Texas is first in team batting average .272 and in runs scored with 297, while second in on-base percentage at .342 and 3rd in slugging percentage with .456. Adolis Garcia is the leading home run hitter for Texas with 14 and also leads the Rangers in RBI with 49. Josh Jung is second in home runs with nine, while Marcus Semien is second in RBI with 38. Texas has hit 94 doubles, five triples and 63 home runs in 46 games. Consider that the over is 12-5-1 in Pirates last 18 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockies will turn to right-hander Chase Anderson on Monday night in the series opener with Miami. Anderson will be making his second start of the season and fourth appearance overall. He has no record and has yet to allow a run in ten innings while allowing just three hits. He has two walks and five strikeouts overall. In his lone starting appearance, his first with Colorado after being acquired from Tampa, the 35-year old allowed just one hit in five innings against the Reds while picking up a no-decision. The Marlins are hitting just .230 on the road. Consider that the under is 11-2 in Marlins last 13 vs. National League West.

Rating: 2 Units

A pair of former Cy Young Award winners -- the Guardians' Shane Bieber (3-2, 3.20 ERA) and the Mets' Justin Verlander (1-2, 4.76 ERA) -- remain scheduled to start tonight's game. Bieber took the defeat in his lone start against New York on Aug. 20, 2019, when he allowed four runs (two earned) over six innings in a 9-2 loss. Verlander is 22-24 with a 4.53 ERA in 54 starts against the Guardians. Consider that the over is 19-8 in Mets last 27 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.

Rating: 2 Units

One of baseball's most productive lineups in the first two weeks of May, the suddenly sluggish Kansas City offense has been shut out twice in the past five games, scoring just 10 runs over the five games. The Royals have been shut out eight times this season. Kansas City is 2-6 during its current road trip, which ends Sunday. Royals' batters have hit .185 (47-for-254) with 79 strikeouts, including a .184 mark (9-of-49) with runners in scoring position during the span. Kansas City was hitless with runners in scoring position in the first two games of the series and struck out three times to end innings with a runner at third. Meanwhile, while winning four of its past five games, Chicago starters have limited hitters to a .208 average (25-for-120) with a 1.89 ERA (seven earned runs, 33 1/3 innings). They have completed at least six innings in seven straight starts. Consider that the under is 11-5-3 in White Sox last 19 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rays announced left-hander Jalen Beeks (1-2, 4.70 ERA) as today's starter. Beeks has faced the Brewers twice, making one start. While he hasn't been involved in a decision, he has a 3.00 ERA in three innings. The Brewers are countering with right-hander Freddy Peralta (4-3, 4.11) today. Peralta is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA in one career start against the Rays. The 26-year-old has worked at least six innings in five of his eight starts but is coming off allowing a season-high six runs in a loss at the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday.  Consider that the over is 11-5-2 in Brewers last 18 vs. American League East.

Rating: 2 Units

Neither offense is trustworthy enough to expect this game to reach double-digit runs, especially not in a pitcher's park. Kansas City has been hot lately, but even with a great start to May are 23rd in runs per game this season. San Diego has elite bats at the top of the order, but is 28th in runs per game this year. The Padres are averaging under three runs per game over their last eight played too. This isn't a game that will be advertised as a pitcher's duel, but they should fare better than the offenses in this one. Roll with the under between two underwhelming offenses.

NHL Total of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Consider that the Over is 7-2-2 in Panthers last 11 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game, 7-2 in Panthers last 9 vs. Atlantic, 16-5-2 in Panthers last 23 vs. a team with a losing record, and 27-11-2 in Panthers last 40 Monday games. While the Over is 13-3 in Senators last 16 games playing on 1 days rest, 8-2 in Senators last 10 vs. Eastern Conference, and 12-4 in Senators last 16 overall.

Rating: 2 Units

Consider that the Over is 3-0-1 in Lobos last 4 games following a straight up win., 4-0 in Lobos last 4 Friday games, and 4-0-1 in Lobos last 5 road games. While the Over is 5-0 in Rams last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 4-0 in Rams last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record, 9-1 in Rams last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 10-2-1 in Rams last 13 games following a ATS loss.

Rating: 2 Units

Consider that the Over is 6-0 in Nets last 6 games following a ATS loss, 4-0 in Nets last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points, and 5-1-1 in Nets last 7 road games. While the Over is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 home games, 4-1 in Celtics last 5 Friday games, and 6-2 in Celtics last 8 overall.

Rating: 2 Units