15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Bucks +2.5

The Milwaukee Bucks will be the more motivated team tonight as they look to beat Orlando for the first time this season. I like their chances of getting revenge in a very tough spot for the Magic.

I just don't see Orlando bringing the motivation it's going to take to come away with a road victory tonight. The Magic have won the first two meetings with the Bucks this season, and they are coming off a deflating 78-90 loss at Miami yesterday. After playing the Heat, the Magic will have a hard time getting up for the Bucks.

Milwaukee easily could have won both games against Orlando this season. They held the lead going into the 4th quarter in both contests, and blew a 7-point lead in Orlando with less than six minutes remaining just four nights ago on February 17th. This will be their 3rd meeting in the last 10 days, so there's no question the Bucks are going to be the more motivated team.

The home team is 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series. The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home meetings with the Magic. Scott Skiles is 40-19 ATS in home games after having lost 4 of their last 5 games in all games he has coached. Take Milwaukee Monday.

15* Magic/Heat ABC ATS ANNIHILATOR on Miami -9

The Miami Heat are playing their best basketball of the season right now. I look for that to continue on National TV this afternoon as they get revenge on the Orlando Magic from an earlier loss this month. A motivated Heat team is certainly a dangerous one.

Miami lost 102-89 at Orlando on 2/8 for their worst loss of the season. There's no question this team has payback in mind, and I am banking on them getting it by double-digits at home this afternoon. Miami is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, winning all five contests by 15 points or more. Roll with Miami Sunday.

20* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Purdue +5.5

The Michigan State Spartans are getting way too much respect on the road today. They are a very good team and one of the best squads in the Big Ten, but there's no way they should be favored at Purdue.

The Boilermakers are 17-9 this season, including 11-3 at home where they are outscoring opponents by a whopping 14.5 points/game. Purdue wants revenge from an ugly loss at Michigan State earlier this season, which is likely the biggest reason why the Spartans are favored. But in the Big Ten, home-court advantage means everything.

Purdue is 7-0 ATS in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 2 seasons. Michigan State is 0-6 ATS in road games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons. Purdue is 8-0 ATS after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals over the last 2 seasons. These three trends make for a perfect 21-0 system backing the Boilermakers. Bet Purdue Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado State -2.5

The Colorado State Rams are showing solid value as just a 2.5-point home favorite over the Wyoming Cowboys. The Rams will be looking to revenge an earlier loss to the Cowboys in their first meeting of the season, so motivation will certainly be on their side.

Colorado State is one of the best home teams in the entire country this year. The Rams are 11-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 8.8 points/game. CSU has won four of their last five meetings with Wyoming overall, so their road loss earlier this season was a rarity.

Colorado State is a perfect 8-0 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons. The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5. The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Take Colorado State Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Grizzlies UNDER 197

The total in this game has been set way too high Saturday in a game that will result in a defensive battle. Both teams come in tired as they will be playing their second of a back-to-back. Memphis is playing their 4th game in 5 days and Golden State is playing their 3rd game in 4 days.

These teams already met once this season in what was certainly a defensive battle. Memphis won at Golden State 91-90 for 181 combined points. The Warriors only managed 90 points despite shooting 50.0 percent from the floor. The Grizzlies shot 42.4 percent. I look for a similar final score tonight.

Golden State is 17-5 to the UNDER in their last 22 when playing their 2nd road game in 2 days. The UNDER is 5-0 in Warriors last 5 overall. The UNDER is 5-0 in Warriors last 5 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. These last three trends make for a 14-0 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State -8.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are a legitimate NCAA Tournament team. They really need this win Saturday to assure that they stay on track to make the Big Dance for the first time since 2005. I believe they win in a double-digit blowout against overmatched Oklahoma here.

Without question, Iowa State is the most underrated team in the Big 12. The Cyclones are 18-8 in all games this season, including 8-5 SU & 9-3 ATS in conference play. ISU is 13-2 at home this year, outscoring opponents by 9.2 points/game.

Oklahoma enters this contest on a five-game losing streak. That includes a 77-70 home loss to Iowa State, and blowout road losses at Kansas (62-84) and at Texas Tech (47-65). That was the Red Raiders' only Big 12 win of the season just to show how bad that loss was.

Oklahoma is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after 3 or more consecutive losses. The Cyclones are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games. These two trends make for a 12-0 system backing the Cyclones. Plus, the Sooners are 25-52-3 ATS in their last 80 road games. Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Golden State Warriors +10.5

The Golden State Warriors should not be catching double-digit points tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Golden State will be the more motivated team tonight, which means they will be giving the better effort which should result in a cover against this inflated spread.

Golden State has lost their first two meetings with Oklahoma City by 11 and 3 points, respectively. They'll want revenge tonight, while the Thunder could certainly be disinterested after opening 2-0 in this season series. The Warriors have been really tough in this series on the road, not losing any of their last three road meetings by more than 8 points.

The Warriors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5, including 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. Golden State is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Oklahoma City. Add up these three trends and we have a 20-2 (91%) System backing the Warriors. Take Golden State Friday.

25* Mavs/76ers NBA on ESPN GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia -2.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are showing their best value of the season tonight as just a small 2.5-point home favorite over the Dallas Mavericks. The 76ers will be amped up to take on the defending champs while also looking to bounce back from a loss at Orlando last time out.

Dallas is way overvalued with this line due to their five-game winning streak and their blowout home victory over the Denver Nuggets last time out. That was a Denver team playing without several of their key players. Their streak ends tonight.

Philly is 20-10 SU & 19-11 ATS on the season. That includes a 13-5 SU & 12-6 ATS mark at home where they are outscoring opponents by a whopping 10.8 points/game. The 76ers only give up 83.6 points on 41.1 percent shooting at home this year. The home team has won six of the last eight meetings in this series.

The 76ers have been incredible when trying to bounce back from a loss, going 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss. Philly is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite. The 76ers are 8-1 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=43% this season. Philly has suffered back-to-back losses just once all season. Bet the 76ers Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee Bucks +7.5

The Orlando Magic are way overvalued right now due to winning seven of their last nine while entering this game on a three-game winning streak. The Milwaukee Bucks are undervalued thanks to a three-game losing streak heading in. I'll side with the value and back the live underdog tonight.

Milwaukee obviously wants to put an end to this losing streak in a hurry. They'll be the more motivated team in this one, while Orlando comes in relaxed and not as hungry. The Bucks have been tough on the road this season, only getting outscored by 4.0 points/game. Orlando is only outscoring opponents by 4.2 points/game at home.

The Bucks just played the Magic on 2/11 less than a week ago, falling 99-94. Each of the last three meetings in this series were decided by 6 points or less. Milwaukee will be out for revenge tonight as well, only adding more incentive for them to cover this large spread.

The Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. The Magic are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Orlando is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Milwaukee is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 after 3 or more consecutive losses. The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Roll with Milwaukee Friday.

15* Clippers/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2

This is simply too low of a line to pass up on the Clippers tonight. Los Angeles is clearly the better team when you factor in who is playing in this game, and you have to believe they are out for some revenge after losing to Portland on the road earlier this season.

The Trail Blazers were able to go on the road and beat Golden State 93-91 last night without All-Star forward LaMarcus Aldridge. I can't see them having the same kind of success without Aldridge against the Clippers tonight. Los Angeles has a couple of pretty good players down low in Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, who should dominate this game on both sides of the floor. Without Aldridge (22.6 ppg) in the lineup, Portland's leading scorer is reserve Jamal Crawford at 14.3 ppg. They simply don't have enough offense to keep this game close.

The Clippers are 8-1 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season. Los Angeles is also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Portland is 0-7 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. Bet the Clippers Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Penn State -2.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions will make easy work of the Iowa Hawkeyes Thursday and cover this tiny spread with ease. Oddsmakers have missed their mark very badly in this Big Ten match-up. Home-court advantage is as big in this conference at it is in any other conference in the country.

That's especially the case in this series as the home team has been absolutely dominant. The home team is a perfect 10-0 in the last 10 meetings in this series dating back to 2006. When Penn State makes it 11 in a row tonight, they'll likely win by 3-plus points to cover this generous spread, too.

Iowa has played 25 games this season, and they only have two road wins to their credit. The Hawkeyes are getting outscored by 13.1 points/game away from home. Penn State is a respectable 9-5 at home this year, outscoring opponents by 6.6 points/game.

The Nittany Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Penn State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Nittany Lions are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Bet Penn State Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Mavs OVER 198

I fully expect the Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks to take part in a shootout tonight. Points are usually easy to come by when these two teams get together, and I see them combining for 200-plus tonight with ease.

Denver is scoring 104.1 points/game and allowing 99.9 points/game this season for an average combined score of 204.0 points/game. Those numbers balloon to 107.1 for, 102.3 against and 209.4 combined in Denver road games.

Dallas is starting to light up the nets of late. The Mavericks are averaging 100.5 points/game in their last four. They should be able to take advantage of a Denver team that will be missing two key interior defenders in Nene Hilario and Timofey Mozgov. Look for the Mavs to get easy buckets around the rim all game.

Denver and Dallas have combined for 200 or more points in 14 of their last 15 meetings. That makes for a 14-1 (93%) system backing the OVER pertaining to tonight's total set. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +10.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves should not be laying double-digits against any team in this league. I know the Charlotte Bobcats have the worst record, but there's no question that this line has been inflated. I'll take advantage tonight.

The biggest reason for Charlotte's early struggles has been injuries. But the Bobcats are finally starting to get healthy, and they could be a very solid value play not only tonight, but over the next few weeks. They just got back their best player in Corey Maggette, who scored 22 points last time out. Also, starting PG D.J. Augustin is expected to make his return tonight.

Minnesota comes into this game on a 4-game losing streak. The Timberwolves have been overmatched during this skid, and they have no business getting this much respect tonight. This is a flashy team with the addition of Ricky Rubio, which makes them a public team. While the Timberwolves are improved this year, they remain one of the worst teams in the Western Conference.

Charlotte has been a thorn in Minnesota's side for years. The Bobcats have won eight of their last nine meetings with the Timberwolves. That includes four road victories during this stretch, which dates back to 2007.

The Timberwolves are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The Timberwolves are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. These four trends make for a 21-1 (95%) system backing the Bobcats. Take Charlotte Wednesday.

25* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Hornets +9.5

The New Orleans Hornets are showing their best value of the season tonight as nearly a double-digit underdog to the Milwaukee Bucks. Milwaukee has no business being this heavily favored tonight in a game I believe the Hornets can win outright.

New Orleans finally put an end to their losing streak with an impressive 86-80 victory over the Utah Jazz two nights ago. Chris Kaman led the way with 27 points and 13 rebounds, while Greivis Vasquez dished out 10 assists filling in for the injured Jarrett Jack.

Milwaukee is just 12-16 on the season, yet they are getting treated like one of the elite teams in the NBA with this line tonight. The Bucks haven't won a game by double-digits since last month, and they could easily suffer a hangover from their blowout 96-114 home loss to the Miami Heat last time out.

The Bucks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite. Milwaukee is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Bucks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. New Orleans has won 10 of their last 11 meetings with Milwaukee, making for a 91% system backing them tonight. Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -3

The Orlando Magic continue to be undervalued due to the trade talks surrounding Dwight Howard. The Philadelphia 76ers are overvalued due to their fast start. The clear value in this game is with the small home favorite.

Orlando is 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last 8 games overall, beating up on some good teams while also taking advantage of soft lines. They have a win over Miami and solid road victories over the Pacers and Bucks during this stretch. Their only losses came by 5 points to the Clippers and by 2 points in overtime to the Hawks.

The 76ers are an impressive 20-9 on the season, but they have been doing most of their damage at home. Philly has played 18 home games compared to 11 road games this season, which is the biggest reason for their early success. The value is gone from this team for now, though it could come back later in the season.

This play falls into a system that is 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). After losing at Philly 69-74 in their first meeting this season, I like the Magic to have their revenge tonight. Roll with Orlando Wednesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on South Florida -2

The South Florida Bulls should be a much heavier favorite tonight over the Villanova Wildcats. Villanova continues to get too much respect from oddsmakers from what they've done in year's past, instead of what they are doing this year.

Villanova is 11-13 SU & 5-15 ATS this season. That includes a 2-10 SU & 3-8 ATS road mark. The Wildcats are giving up a whopping 75.7 points/game on the road. This team has been overvalued all season, and they remain overvalued tonight.

South Florida doesn't get the respect they deserve because they have not been a contender in the Big East over the last several years. But they are a contender this season. The Bulls are 15-10 in all games, including an impressive 8-4 in Big East play.

USF does not lose at home, going 12-1 while giving up just 57.1 points and outscoring opponents by 11.4 points/game this season. They already beat Villanova 74-57 on the road in their first meeting, so they should have no problem winning by 3-plus points at home this time around.

Villanova is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better this season. The Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. These three trends make for an 18-0 ATS system backing the Bulls. Take South Florida Wednesday.

15* Hawks/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have been virtually unstoppable at the Staples Center all season. They are 11-2 at home this year, outscoring opponents by 9.9 points/game. Their 85.2 points/game allowed at home is by far the best in the Western Conference.

Atlanta's nine losses to clubs with winning records this season have come by an average of 13.1 points, and it's fallen behind by at least 20 in its last five defeats overall. The Hawks have lost five straight road games to the Lakers by an average of 17.0 points, allowing 109.2 points per game while shooting 25.0 percent from long distance.

The Lakers' role players have been excellent at home, but terrible on the road. Steve Blake and Matt Barnes are averaging a combined 18.0 points and shooting 47.2 percent at Staples compared to 10.5 points and 34.9 percent on the road. This team simply plays with a lot more confidence as a whole at home, and this is a very generous line tonight.

The Hawks are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 vs. Western Conference. Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Pacific opponents. The Lakers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Los Angeles. Roll with the Lakers Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Jazz/Thunder UNDER 200

The Utah Jazz are extremely tired right now as this will be their 3rd road game in three days. I look for the Jazz to struggle offensively on tired legs, but for their defensive effort to be there. Utah will be coming up short on a lot of outside shots tonight.

The Thunder are a solid defensive team with Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins inside. They only give up 93.7 points/game at home this season. Ibaka and Perkins really contained Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson in their last game, a 101-87 road victory at Utah on 2/10. I expect a similar final in this one with well below 200 combined points.

Utah has been an UNDERS machine of late. The Jazz are 5-1 to the UNDER in their last six games overall. They have combined with their opponents to score 188 or less points in five of those six contests. OKC has combined their their opponents to score 196 or less points in four straight home games.

Utah is 44-22 to the UNDER in their last 66 when revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more. The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 7-2 in Jazz last 9 games playing on 0 days rest. The UNDER is 16-7 in Jazz last 23 games as an underdog. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Tech +4.5

The Texas Tech Red Raiders should not be an underdog at home to the Texas A&M Aggies tonight. This is a game I fully expect the Red Raiders to win outright. Texas Tech picked up a huge 65-47 victory over Oklahoma Saturday as a 6.5-point underdog, giving them a lot of confidence heading into this one.

The Aggies have simply been a disappointment this season. A big reason has been due to injuries as they just haven't been healthy at any point this year. This team appeared to have packed it in against Iowa State in a 46-69 road loss Saturday, which was their fourth straight defeat.

With how poorly Texas A&M has played on the road this season, there's no way they should be favored in this one. The Aggies are 1-8 in road games, losing by an average of 12.3 points/game. Texas Tech is a respectable 7-5 at home this year. The Aggies are 0-6 in Big 12 road games, losing all six by 9 points or more.

The Aggies are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. Texas A&M is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 0.5-6.5. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Texas Tech Tuesday.

15* Suns/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -3

The Golden State Warriors should be a much heavier favorite tonight over the Phoenix Suns. Golden State continues to go under the radar. I believe this is one of the most underrated teams in the league, and it's simply taken some time to gel under new head coach Mark Jackson.

The Warriors are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are riding a two-game winning streak with impressive wins over the Denver Nuggets (109-101) on the road and the Houston Rockets (106-97) at home. Under the defensive-minded Jackson, the Warriors are playing much better defense, giving up 100.7 points/game overall and less than 100 points/game at home.

Phoenix is one of the most overrated teams in the league this season. That's indicated by the fact that the Suns are 12-15 SU & 12-15 ATS. Phoenix is only scoring 92.2 points/game away from home this season. They simply haven't surrounded Steve Nash with the kind of talent it takes to make this team a playoff contender.

The Warriors are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Phoenix is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference. The home team is 15-7-1 ATS in the last 23 meetings. The Suns are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 meetings in Golden State. Take the Warriors Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Bobcats OVER 176.5

The total has been set far too low in this game between the Philadelphia 76ers and Charlotte Bobcats. I fully expect these teams to combine for 180-plus points tonight to get this OVER with relative ease.

Looking at season averages alone, it's easy to see that there is some value with this OVER tonight. Philly combines with their opponents to average 182.5 points/game, including 190.7 points/game on the road. Charlotte combines with their opponents to average 187.2 points/game overall.

Charlotte is one of the worst defensive teams in the league. They give up 100.9 points/game on 47.1 percent shooting. I look for the 76ers to exceed the 100-point mark, paving the way for an easy OVER in this one.

The Bobcats have combined with their opponents for 178 or more points in six of their last seven games overall, and Philly has combined with their foes for 178 or more points in six of their last seven as well. These are two 86% OVER systems pertaining to tonight's total set. Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +9

The Iowa State Cyclones remain one of the most underrated teams in the country. The Baylor Bears, on the other hand, have been overrated all year thanks to a soft early schedule. This line reflects both of my opinions as the Cyclones simply should not be catching this many points.

Iowa State is 18-7 on the season and deserving of being ranked. The Cyclones are 8-4 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in conference play. Their record against the spread in Big 12 games just shows how underrated this team really is. Head coach Fred Hoiberg brought in a ton of talented transfers, and they have really started to gel in conference action.

Baylor's true colors have shown here recently. They lost at home to Kansas 54-68 on 2/8 and followed that poor performance up with a 57-72 road loss at Missouri on 2/11. Iowa State only lost to Kansas by 9 on the road, and they beat the Jayhawks are home 72-64. ISU has not lost a Big 12 games by more than 9 points this season.

Baylor is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games with a total set of 140 to 149.5 points. The Bears are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after 2 or more consecutive unders. Iowa State is 8-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season. The Cyclones are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, while the Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. These five trends make for a 34-0 system backing ISU. Bet Iowa State Monday.

15* Jazz/Grizzlies ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 188

The Memphis Grizzlies are one of the best defensive teams in the league. They give up just 91.7 points/game this season, including 91.6 points/game at home on 41.7 percent shooting. they like to play at a slow pace, so playing at home tonight the Grizzlies will control the tempo in this one.

Memphis is scoring 88.2 points/game and allowing 92.0 points/game in their last five contests for an average combined score of 180.2 points/game. I fully expect this game to see 180 or less combined points as the Grizzlies and Jazz take part in a defensive battle on National TV. These teams met earlier this season on 1/06 and combined for 179 points.

The UNDER is 8-1 in Grizzlies last 9 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 4-1 in Grizzlies last 5 home games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 15-7 in Jazz last 22 games as an underdog. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. The UNDER is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in Memphis. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Heat/Hawks ESPN ATS ANNIHILATOR on Miami -4

The Miami Heat are showing solid value Sunday as a mere 4-point favorite over the Atlanta Hawks. Rarely will you get the Heat at this kind of price. In my opinion, they are the second-best team in the Eastern Conference behind the Bulls, so you should definitely pull the trigger any time you get them as a small favorite.

This play falls into a system that is 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road favorites (MIAMI) - off a road win against a division rival, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days.

Atlanta is 11-26 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Heat are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings, including 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Atlanta. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Roll with the Heat Sunday.

20* Bulls/Celtics ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Chicago -3

The Chicago Bulls are the real deal. Any time you can get the Bulls at this kind of price, you better take advantage. That's precisely what I'm doing Sunday as the Bulls go into Boston and come away with a blowout victory.

In my opinion, the Bulls are the best team in the league. They are 23-6 this season despite playing several games without Derrick Rose due to injury. While I expect Rose to play today, I still envision the Bulls covering either way.

This play falls into a system that is 49-17 (74.2%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against road favorites (CHICAGO) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record.

The Bulls are 7-0 ATS after playing 3 consecutive games as a road favorite this season. Chicago is 8-0 ATS in road games after playing 4 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. These three trends make for a perfect 19-0 system backing Chicago. Bet the Bulls Sunday.