Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-30-24 | 76ers +4.5 v. Knicks | Top | 112-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Rotation #565: Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers +4.5 -115 @ New York Knicks @ 7 ET - If you look at the 3 match-ups today, the Magic/Cavs series is tied up at 2 and looks like it will be a dogfight until the end. I am staying away. Then the other two series going today include this game and the Pacers/Bucks and both of these series are 3-1. The key here is that I want to grab that hungry dog that is down 3-1 but the Bucks still have a couple of key injury issues. The 76ers, on the other hand, are mostly healthy even though Embiid continues to labor at times. This is Philly's season right here and I expect Embiid and Company to give maximum effort here in hopes of sending this series back to Philadelphia for a Game 6. The Knicks are actually the more banged up team now in comparison with Philly. New York has been strong in this series but there is something funny here with this line. It looks too short on the Knicks and you know what that usually means! Considering how the Knicks won Games 1 and 2 at home and had this same line but also now just won at Philly in Game 4 and now have the line in the same range as Games 1 and 2 even though they are one win away from eliminating the Sixers...this looks like a trap line to me and even though I expect the Knicks to ultimately win the series, I would not be surprised to send this series heading back to Philly. The Sixers will be hungrier than ever here and they take advantage of the situation relating to some banged up Knicks. Will grab the points just in case but likely not needed. PHLADELPHIA +4.5 -115 |
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04-29-24 | Lakers v. Nuggets -7 | Top | 106-108 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
Rotation #562: NBA Monday Denver Nuggets -7 vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 10 ET - Line value here as you know the Nuggets are going to be focused here after losing at LA in Game 4. The last thing that Denver wants to do now is to have to go back to Los Angeles for Game 6. That said, I expect them to leave no doubt here! The intensity level of the Nuggets will be sky high for this one and they will feed off the home crowd. Remember Denver swept LA out of the playoffs last year. They then won all 3 regular season meetings this season. All 3 of those wins in the regular season were by 8 or more points and then the Nuggets won the first 3 games of this series before the Game 4 loss. In other words, it is pretty easy to see that Denver has the Lakers number and one game does not change all that. Davis and James led the way in the Game 4 win but a bigger key might have been that Russell and Reaves both scored well in the same game finally. That was the first time in this series however and with this game back in Denver again, look for at least 1 of the 2 to struggle again here. That makes a big difference because Davis and James do need help of course against the defending champs. Vanderbilt could be back here for LA but he has not played in 3 months. If anything, his possible return is helping to keep this line lower than it should be. Nuggets will be hell bent on finishing this thing tonight. In the thin air of Denver, they pull away as this game goes on and the Lakers wear down late. The Nuggets are 3-0 SU/ATS L3 times when off a loss and all 3 wins were by at least 15 points. More of the same here! DENVER -7 |
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04-27-24 | Astros -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 12-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
#923 MLB Saturday Houston Astros -1.5 -155 vs Colorado Rockies @ 6:05 ET in Mexico City, MX - Note the total of 17 runs set for this game. This one is played in high altitude and last season's 2-game series here for MLB featured a ton of runs when the Padres faced the Giants. In this match-up I give a big edge to the Astros and feel they are the ones driving the high total posted on this game. I don't trust the Rockies to keep up. First off, Blanco has been fantastic compared to Quantrill this season. Also, Colorado's lineup does not have experience against Blanco while the Astros lineup does have experience against Quantrill. The key here in a hitter-friendly park is a lot of strikeouts and a lack of strong contact resulting in big hits. Look at the key numbers here and you will see that, both pitchers have logged 27 innings but Quantrill has allowed 28 hits with 4 homers and only 15 strikeouts while Blanco has 22 strikeouts and only 11 hits with just 1 homer! These teams have identical 7-19 records but the Astros are on a 5-game losing streak while Rockies have been a little better of late. So why is Houston such a massive favorite here? Exactly! The odds makers are looking at the same thing sharp bettors are looking at here! Per all of the above, lay it with confidence here! HOUSTON -1.5 -155 |
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04-26-24 | Clippers +4.5 v. Mavs | Top | 90-101 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
Rotation #535: NBA Friday Los Angeles Clippers +4.5 @ Dallas Mavericks @ 8 ET - Notice the line flip here and yes the status of Kawhi Leonard is up in the air but the Clippers won Game 1 without him and then lost Game 2 with him. But why are the Mavs now laying 4.5 just because they are at home? These teams were both about the same on the road as at home. That said, the Clips went off the board as a favorite in Game 2 because of Leonard playing but now they are catching 4.5 points on the road even though he might play again plus even though the Clips won Game 1 when he did not play. I like value and this one shapes up to be a highly competitive series with possible tight finishes just like the 3 point win the Mavs just had. If you look at the Mavs last 6 home games, they are 5-1 SU but with 1 of those wins in OT and 2 of the other wins by just a bucket. There is a lot of value here with 4.5 points. The Clippers have won a modest 5 of 9 games but 2 of those 4 losses by 3 or less points. Also, one of the only two bigger losses was a season finale after Clips already clinched the division. The Clips were outscored by 18 points from 3 point land in the 3 points loss in Game 2 and, overall, it was unusually poor shooting that did in LA in that game. In Game 1 they shot very well and never trailed and led by as many as 29. After also having more shots from the field in Game 2 but shooting poorly, there is solid value here and we'll take it with the points. LA CLIPPERS (+) |
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04-26-24 | A's v. Orioles -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -125 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Rotation #962: MLB Friday Baltimore Orioles -1.5 -125 vs Oakland A's @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles are coming back from a west coast trip but had a day game Wednesday so their rest situation is actually better than the A's who played last night in the Bronx and got an upset win over the Yankees despite being outhit. Speaking of being outhit, the Athletics have now scored 3 or less runs in 7 straight games and 9 of their last 10 games! In those 9 games, Oakland has averaged 2.3 runs scored per game. Note that the Orioles, on the other hand, have won 8 of 10 games and scored an average of 6 runs in their last 15 games! 6 to 2 sounds about right to me here and truly this should be a blowout win for the hosts. Baltimore's slugging percentage is 115 points higher than that of Oakland so far this season. Also, Corbin Burnes has a respectable 2.76 ERA this season and a 3-0 record while allowing only 22 hits and striking out 29 in his 29 innings. Conversely, Oakland's Ross Stripling has give up 37 hits in his 28.2 innings and he is 0-5 with a 5.34 ERA. The O's are perfect in Burnes starts (5-0) while Stripling has taken the loss (0-5) in all of his 5 starts! Also, 5 of Oakland's last 6 losses by 2 or more runs. 14 of the Orioles 16 wins - including 7 of 8 at home - have been by 2+ runs! In other words, no hesitation in laying the run line here! BALTIMORE -1.5 -125 |
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04-25-24 | Knicks v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 114-125 | Win | 100 | 35 h 43 m | Show |
Rotation #528: NBA Thursday Philadelphia 76ers -4.5 vs New York Knicks @ 7:30 ET - If the Knicks had Julius Randle this would like be a sweep. However, as it stands now, the Sixers might win just one game. In my mind however, this is absolutely the game that happens. Philadelphia is angry about the way the final 30 seconds of that debacle played out in New York Monday when the Sixers had a 5 point lead evaporate and there were some questionable officiating moments. In any event, Philly found a way to lose that game but there are a couple of keys here as to why the Sixers should bounce back for a huge win in this one. The extra rest is huge for Philly as Embiid still trying to recover. Having 2 full off days between games is a big plus for the Sixers to rest up both mentally and physically. Also, other than Embiid and red hot All-Star Maxey, Philly did not get enough from their players in New York. Secondary role players - those outside of Philadelphia's big 1-2 punch - are likely to be much more comfortable on their home floor. I see the Sixers getting better shooting and better overall play from some of the key supporting cast. At the same time, the determination and effort of Embiid and Maxey is going to be off the charts here. Philadelphia's backs are against the wall now and they are angry. This is a can't lose game for Philly. Of course that does not always translate to a win but in this case, per all of the above, I would say the situation strongly favors a big Philly win. The Knicks have not shot all that well either and that was in New York. But Philly is fully capable of lighting it up with hot shooting when they are at home and it will be a raucous crowd here as well. Sixers poised to win this by double digits. The 76ers are 7-2 SU the last 9 times they have entered a game off B2B losses and all 7 wins were by at least a 6 point margin! This is the Sixers Game of the Year and you should see them play one of their best games of the season with intense defense and a much stronger shooting performance on their home floor. PHILADELPHIA -4.5 |
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04-23-24 | Mavs -2 v. Clippers | Top | 96-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Rotation #513: NBA Tuesday Dallas Mavericks -2 @ Los Angeles Clippers @ 10 ET - The Mavericks did not just lose Game 1, they scored just 8 points in the 2nd quarter and trailed 56-30 at the half in an unreal result! These are not the only quirky stats in the games that was ultimately decided by a 12 point margin. The Clippers also made 18 of 36 three pointers! What I like here is that the Clips outscored the Mavs by 24 points (Dallas made 10 threes) from beyond the arc yet the Mavs lost the game by "only" a 12-point margin. That said, there is some value here because I am confident the Clippers will not be raining threes again with such success in Game 2. It is just not sustainable. What it sustainable is being hungry and physical and doing everything you can to get to the free throw line. The Mavs did have 33 free throw attempts compared to just 13 for the Clips in Game 1. Also, Dallas had the edge in steals plus blocked shots were a huge 9 to 3 edge. It was an ugly loss for the Mavs but there were some interesting takeaways from that defeat and I am expecting a very focus and hungry road team to get some payback here in Game 2. This is true even if Kawhi Leonard does end up playing for LA in this one. Dating back to the regular season, the Mavs have now lost 3 straight games. They are a PERFECT 5-0 SU the last 5 times they have entered a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. All 5 of those SU wins have also come by a margin of more than 2 points. Also, when the Clippers are off a SU win by a double digit margin in which they also held their opponent to 98 or less points, LA has gone 0-4 SU and all 4 SU losses were by at least a 3 point margin. Double perfect spot here! Lay it! DALLAS -2 |
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04-23-24 | Lightning +1.5 v. Panthers | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Rotation #73: NHL Tuesday Tampa Bay Lightning +1.5 -165 @ Florida Panthers @ 7:30 ET - Worth the price here to have the 1.5 goals. I know the Lightning scored very late in the 3-2 loss in Game 1 but the Panthers had just scored into an empty net just minutes earlier for a 3-1 lead. It was a tie game entering the 3rd period and Vasilevskiy did play very well for Tampa Bay. That was a key after he struggled some late in the season. If Vasilevskiy is back in top from, this is going to be a very interesting series! The Panthers Bobrovsky was 17-29 in his career in the NHL post-season prior to his big playoffs performance last season. That was certainly no fluke last season but, the point is that Florida certainly does not have a big edge here in goal by any stretch of the imagination. Bobrovsky has had his share of post-season ups and downs through the years. TB will come out even hungrier in this one now after losing Game 1 in a very competitive match-up. That leads to line value in a spot like this with a game that is likely to be tight again throughout. The Panthers, it goes without saying, truly are a highly talented team but the Lightning are so disciplined and well coached and they did a great job of limiting the Panthers of scoring chances of quality for long stretches in Game 1. In Game 2 I look for the Bolts to come out strong and put Florida on its heels a bit early. That will shift the momentum a bit here and I expect an early lead and the Bolts to continue to grind. I do expect the upset but could see a tight battle decided on a late goal or even in OT so I am taking advantage of a reasonable price on the puck line in this one. TAMPA BAY +1.5 -165 |
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04-21-24 | White Sox v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
Rotation #918: MLB Sunday Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -145 vs Chicago White Sox @ 1:35 ET - Not going to change what is working just fine. The White Sox have the worst record in the league and are now 3-17 on the season and 1-8 on the road. The Phillies have won 5 straight games and are swinging hot bats at home. The White Sox have gotten some late runs in recent games but overall continue to slump at the plate. As for Philadelphia, they have now scored an average of 7 runs in their last 4 victories. Aaron Nola gets the ball here and he loves pitching at home. Also, he had a bad first start this season but has been strong ever since and is coming off his best start yet. Curve ball was lethal at home and he has allowed only 9 hits in his last 19 innings plus just 3 solo homers are the only 3 runs in his last 3 starts! Nick Nastrini gets the ball for the White Sox and the 24 year old was strong in his first career MLB start early this week but now he is making his first ever road start! Nastrini was struggling at the AAA level before being called up and he also walked too many batters in spring training so he appears to be prone to lapses in command of his pitches. Facing a hot Phillies team with a number of sluggers is a tough ask for the very first road start of your career. Look for the Phillies to again roll big at home in this one. We have a bit of a price to lay on the run line here but it should prove well worth it! PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -145 |
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04-20-24 | White Sox v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
Rotation #972: MLB Saturday Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -130 vs Chicago White Sox @ 6:05 ET - Of course we are not going to be on the Phillies every day of the season but we are riding with them again today because they are matched up with the team with the worst record in MLB this season! Of course this is why the Phillies are the biggest money line favorite on the board today but there is still value to be had as we can grab the run line at -1.5 runs and get a very fair price. Chicago is now 3-16 on the season. This White Sox team has 4 games where they scored decently (or at least respectable) but in the other 15 games they have averaged only 1 run scored per game! That is incredible! Yes, 15 of 19 games this season have aggregated to just 15 runs - 1 per game! If they have that type of "normal" result for them there, we - in theory - just need 3 runs from the Phillies to win this bet. The fact is Philadelphia's lineup is starting to heat up and they have averaged 6.3 runs in their last 3 games at home! Bohm was the star yesterday. Schwarber and Turner the day before. Harper and Realmuto the day before. All those guys are solid hitters and though Castellanos has slumped so far this season, he and Stott and Marsh in the bottom half of the lineup show just how stacked this team is with hitters compared to a team like the White Sox. Also, Wheeler is 0-3 this season but has pitched very well. Tough luck losses so far. Soroka is 0-2 this season and has struggled with command and has a 6.98 ERA. This game is a complete mismatch again. Lay it! PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -130 |
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04-17-24 | Heat v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 104-105 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
Rotation #552 NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Miami Heat @ 7 ET - The 76ers finished the season with 8 straight wins. They rested Embiid in the season finale and he is listed as questionable for this game as a result. However, there is no way he is missing this game. Philly is on a roll and ready to advance and the Heat are still a strong team but they are not on the same level they use to be. Also, some news on the injury front from Miami. Though Duncan Robinson is probable for this game, Terry Rozier has been ruled out and this does impact the depth of Miami for this game. The 76ers 8 straight wins have come by an average margin of 12.6 ppg! The Heat, prior to a double OT win in their final road game of the season, were on a 5-5 run in road games. The margin of defeat in 4 of the 5 losses was 6 or more points. We have solid value here with this line currently as low as a 4.5 as of overnight hours heading into Wednesday! The Heat won the first two games with Philly in the regular season but Embiid missed both of those. The Sixers have won the last two meetings to wrap the regular season series and that was even without Embiid in one of those as well. He is back, the Sixers are confident, they are rested, they are at home, and this is a manageable line. Lay the short number with the hosts in this one! PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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04-17-24 | Rockies v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
Rotation #912: MLB Wednesday Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -105 vs Colorado Rockies @ 6:05 ET - The Rockies, with the extra innings loss in Philly Monday followed by the 5-0 shutout loss yesterday, have dropped to 4-14 on the season and 2-10 in road games. Colorado is now 24-69 in road games since the start of last season. They are one of the worst teams in baseball year after year when away from Coors Field. Though Monday's game was decided by a single run, the Rockies first 8 road losses this season featured 7 by a multi-run margin. The value here is on the run line as we get a pick'em price by taking the Phillies on the run line to win this game by 2 or more runs. After yesterday's 5-0 loss, the 8 road losses the Rockies have by a multi-run margin have come by an average margin of defeat of 6.3 runs! No strangers to blowout defeats away from home, the Rockies are in trouble again here. The Phillies bats have not been as strong as usual early this season but Colorado's Ryan Feltner has struggled in both of his road outings this season. The right-hander has been hammered by lefties early this season and Bryce Harper is heating up plus the Phillies have dangerous left-handed sticks in addition to Harper. Schwarber, Stott and Marsh all could be in line for doing damage against Feltner here. Since entering the league with the Rockies, Feltner is 7-15 with a 5.80 ERA! Now he faces a Phillies lineup that has underperformed so far this season but still is stacked compared to most teams and is starting to show signs of getting the sticks going! The Rockies have been held to 3 or less runs in 9 of 12 road games this season! In those 9 games they have averaged only 1.2 runs scored per game. They face a tough lefty again today after struggling against Suarez yesterday. Now Christopher Sanchez gets the start and he has been strong at home so far this season and is not allowing many hits. Just 9 hits allowed in 11 innings at home while striking out 14 in those 2 starts! He can shut down the Rockies here and Colorado's road struggles continue as Feltner again gets hit hard away from home. This is a great spot for the Phillies lineup to get rolling and the Rockies just can't keep up here. PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -105 |
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04-16-24 | Rockies v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Rotation #954: MLB Tuesday Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -110 vs Colorado Rockies @ 6:40 ET - The Rockies, with the extra innings loss in Philly yesterday, have dropped to 4-13 on the season and 2-9 in road games. Colorado is now 24-68 in road games since the start of last season. They are one of the worst teams in baseball year after year when away from Coors Field. Though yesterday's game was decided by a single run, the Rockies first 8 road losses this season featured 7 by a multi-run margin. The value here is on the run line as we get a pick'em price by taking the Phillies on the run line to win this game by 2 or more runs. Those 7 losses by a multi-run margin came by an average margin of defeat of 6.4 runs! No strangers to blowout defeats away from home, the Rockies are in trouble again here. The Phillies bats have not been as strong as usual early this season but Colorado's Austin Gomber has struggled in 2 of his 3 outings this season. The southpaw had his worst start of the season thus far on the road at Arizona. Since coming to the Rockies Gomber actually has had two season with a ROAD ERA of 5.98 or more! So the ups and downs of Gomber have not just been because of a tough home venue at Coors Field. Now he faces a Phillies lineup that has underperformed so far this season but still is stacked compared to most teams. The Rockies have been held to 3 or less runs in 8 of 11 road games this season! In those 8 games they have averaged only 1.4 runs scored per game. They face a tough lefty as Ranger Suarez has been great so far this season and is not allowing many hits. Just 9 hits allowed in 17 innings and Suarez faced a hot Pirates team and a stellar Braves lineup for 2 of his 3 starts. He can shut down the Rockies here and Colorado's road struggles continue. Gomber gave up quite a bit of hard contact in his most recent start and, remember, that is his only quality outing so far this season. This is a great spot for the Phillies lineup to get rolling and the Rockies just can't keep up here. PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -110 |
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04-14-24 | Steaua Bucharesti v. CFR Cluj -0.25 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Rotation #206914: Romania Liga 1: Sunday CFR Cluj Pick -130 vs FCSB @ 2 ET - This match is more important to CFR Cluj on their home pitch. They are part of a jumbled group in spots 2 through 5 in the table. Conversely, FCSB is already at the very top and 10 points clear of CFR Cluj. That is also part of the reason FCSB is resting some guys here. They are on the road and facing a tough opponent and I do not expect CFR Cluj to be denied here. FCSB is expected to be without Băluță and Popescu and Panțîru and Phelipe. That is four players that are typically in the rotation and FCSB is now facing their top challenger in the league on the road and without those players! CFR Cluj did lose most recent home match but this followed winning 4 of last 5 at home and those 4 victories were dominating - a combined 13 to 1 score. We could take CFR Cluj on the money line here but the goal line at Pick -130 is offering fantastic line value as a draw would still get us a push with our play. I like Cluj to take care of business here at home. CFR Cluj is off a 4-1 road win and their prior road match was a draw. But the last time they were at home they lost and also their most recent time hosting FCSB was a draw. They want this match badly and they get it! They are the healthier club and at home and the hungrier club! CFR Cluj Pick -130 |
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04-14-24 | Nets +15.5 v. 76ers | Top | 86-107 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Philadelphia 76ers @ 1 ET - The Nets have a lengthy injury list for this one but all the guys listed also missed Friday's game against the Knicks and Brooklyn lost that game by just 4 points! Also, the Sixers are motivated to win this game but they don't have to win in blowout fashion. I could see Philly trying to build a huge lead and then letting it slip away later and settling for a win by about 10 points. There is no reason to push it here. The Sixers do want to win for playoff positioning reasons but they also want to stay healthy for the post-season. Remember that Embiid is still managing the recovery process with his left knee. So this one will likely be a closer game than many are expecting. Also, Brooklyn is just 10-13 SU last 23 games but only 3 of those 23 games was a loss by more than a dozen points! This line is in the 15.5 range and, knowing Philly wants to rest guys, I just can not foresee this game being a complete blowout. BROOKLYN (+) |
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04-12-24 | Magic v. 76ers -8.5 | Top | 113-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
NBA Friday Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Orlando Magic @ 7 ET - The 76ers have Embiid on the injury report but it is not due to injury but just managing his minutes as he recovers from the past injury that kept him out so long. However, I would be surprised if he does not play here. The Sixers are still trying to move into a playoff position and avoid the play-in portion of the post-season! By doing this Embiid could rest then! That said, and with time off both in front of this game and after this game, I expect Embiid to play here. Even if he does not, I still like the red hot Sixers to roll at home in this game! As for the Magic, Franz Wagner may not play here as he is dealing with a current ankle injury. Orlando has been missing him and he is again listed as questionable. Also, you know the Philly fans are going to give former Sixer Markelle Fultz a helluva tough time here as well and this Magic team has lost 3 straight road games. So Philly has won 6 straight games and Orlando has lost 3 straight road games and all by 9 or more points so covering the spread should not be an issue here either. Philly has also won both meetings this season and each victory was by at least 15 points. Also, dating back to last season, the 3 last meetings between these teams have all been Philadelphia wins by a double digit margin! It might seem like a big line here but it is set that way for a reason and this Sixers team is on a roll and they will not slow down here and the road slump for Orlando continues here. This line is in the 7.5 range and we will lay it with confidence! PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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04-11-24 | Pelicans +1.5 v. Kings | Top | 135-123 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
NBA Thursday New Orleans Pelicans +1.5 -115 @ Sacramento Kings @ 10 ET - Pelicans off B2B road wins at Phoenix and Portland. Interestingly enough, the road team is a perfect 6-0 SU in the last 6 New Orleans games. Look for that road team trend to reach 7 in a row here as, of course, there is a reason the Kings are such a small home court favorite here! Note that Sacramento is 0-4 SU versus the Pelicans this season! In other words, we are testing multiple perfect trends here. The Kings enter this game having lost 5 of 8. I know the Pelicans have not been lighting the world on fire either of late but the road team trending above as well as the series dominance this season is what makes it easier to fade the slumping Kings here. Losing Huerter and Monk, one mid-March one late-March, also hurt the depth of Sacramento. Additionally, Keegan Murray is dealing with a left calf issue. He played through it in most recent game but is questionable here. The Kings might rest him with this being the front end of a B2B situation. Even if he plays, he is not 100% and the already short-handed Kings are in trouble here. The Pelicans have been without Brandon Ingram for a few weeks now but have 3 wins over playoff teams (Heat, Bucks, Suns) the past few weeks without him. Over a similar period, the struggling Kings have only beat 1 playoff team. As noted above, this line is set this way for a reason and the small dog road team is the way to play this one! Look for the Pelicans to make it 5 in a row over Sacramento plus the road team trend reaches 7 in a row! NEW ORLEANS +1.5 -115 |
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04-11-24 | Flyers +1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
NHL Thursday Philadelphia Flyers +1.5 -140 @ NY Rangers @ 7 ET - The Flyers are getting some attention today as the money line on this game keeps moving lower even though Philly has been in an awful slump. So who would be betting Philadelphia when they are slumping so badly? Sharps! That said, I still don't trust the Flyers on the money line here as a big dog but I do expect an ultra-competitive effort against the division rival Rangers. Therefore, the value here is with the puck-line. If the Flyers fall short, look for it to be by just a single goal. Coming off some ugly losses including that 9-3 beatdown at Montreal, the Flyers will be ready to respond big here. Their playoff chances are now slim but they are not done yet. The funny line movement on this one clues us in. The underdog is the play. PHILADELPHIA +1.5 -140 |
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04-10-24 | Borussia Dortmund +0.5 v. Atletico Madrid | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Rotation #224209: Champions League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg Wednesday Borussia Dortmund +0.5 goals +115 @ Atletico Madrid @ 3 ET - Solid value spot with Borussia Dortmund on the goal line in this one. While it is certainly true that Atletico Madrid is tough on their home pitch, I like the fact that Borussia Dortmund is coming off a 1-0 loss but had won 5 straight matches prior to that. Also, Atletico Madrid is off a 2-1 win but prior to that they were on a 3-6-2 run. Yes, just 3 wins last 11 matches prior to that tight victory. Given the above, I like our chances of at least a draw in this one with the visitors from the Bundesliga definitely having been in better form. Long-term across al competitions, Borussia Dortmund has had only 7 losses last 46 matches. All we need is a draw here to cash our ticket and this one shapes up to be a tight, low-scoring defensive-minded battle. BORUSSIA DORTMUND +0.5 goals +115 |
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04-08-24 | Purdue +7 v. Connecticut | Top | 60-75 | Loss | -112 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
NCAA Monday Purdue Boilermakers (+) vs Connecticut Huskies @ 9:20 ET - If you are a college basketball connoisseur you probably are well aware of the amazing history of UCLA basketball and when they were a dynasty from the mid 60s to the early 70s. You probably also are aware that since those dynasty days of legend head coach John Wooden and UCLA, there have only been two schools that have managed to have B2B national champs in the past 50 years! That said, so many things have to go right for a team to repeat and, as UConn tries to achieve that feat here, I feel the Zach Edey factor is too big to ignore. Yes the Huskies have a big man too but Edey is great at getting opponents into foul trouble and if Donovan Clingan gets into foul trouble it could greatly impact the interior of this UConn team. Couple that with the improving guard play of Purdue we have seen through their tourney run and there is no way I can pass up on the points here. As of about 15 hours before tipoff, this line is as high as a 7 and I feel we have excellent line value here with the Boilers. An outright upset would not shock me at all so certainly knowing they can lose by a half dozen points and we still cash our ticket has me very comfortable with the underdog side in this one. It is hard to say anything bad about the Huskies and indeed there are a fantastic team with stellar guard play too. I just feel that most everyone is already handing the Championship to the Huskies and this Boilers team is a confident, well-coached group that is going to have a helluva lot to say about that! Don't be surprised if this turns into a thriller that goes down to the wire! That said, having the points on your side could prove invaluable. PURDUE (+) |
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04-07-24 | 76ers -6 v. Spurs | Top | 133-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 7:10 ET - Excellent line value here with this line down to a -6. Yes, the Sixers are in a B2B but none of their guys played more than 27 minutes in yesterday's game. It was a big blowout win at Memphis and so none of the starters played in the 4th quarter either! Also, the 76ers need every win they can get right now and they have a great chance to win out as this is their final road game of the season. The Sixers are trying to move up to a playoff spot rather than being stuck in a play-in spot. As for the Spurs, they had been playing better and also playing much more competitive basketball. But now they have had a number of guys lost to injury. They just recently had a pair of guys (Vassell and Sochan) shut down for the season. Also, another player (Osman) is out for this game. Those guys combine to average 38 points per game. San Antonio will have their hands full with a Sixers team rejuvenated by the recent returns of Embiid and Maxey. Even if the Sixers rest a player or two in the B2B (which I do NOT expect) I would still like Philly here as the Spurs are definitely quite short-handed for this one and the 76ers have now won 4 straight games. The Sixers are well-aware they have 3 winnable home games remaining after this as well and they want to get into a playoff spot and avoid the play-in. Perfect scenario for another highly-motivated effort for the road team. Lay it. PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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04-06-24 | NC State +9.5 v. Purdue | Top | 50-63 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
NCAA Final Four Saturday NC State Wolfpack (+) vs Purdue Boilermakers @ 6:10 ET - If you look at the two match-ups today we are talking about two very big favorites. In my opinion the best value is here with this underdog. NC State has been the cinderella team in this year's tourney and, conversely, as much I would like to pull the trigger on Alabama today, Connecticut has burned me multiple times and I just can not go against the Huskies. Out of both games today I feel the best value is in going against Purdue. As strong as Edey is, and he has the height edge here of course, Burns is likely going to do a job against him because he is such a big body. From a conditioning standpoint too, the time off has helped him. NC State has been playing very well defensively for an extended stretch now. They have the guard play to be strong enough on the perimeter too that I don't think this is going to be an easy "inside - outside" game for Purdue. The Boilermakers should still do enough to prevail but it will not be easy. I know the Boilers beat just beat #2 seed Tennessee but as long time followers know, I was not expecting much from the Volunteers because Rick Barnes track record in tourneys is not exactly stellar! That said, Purdue got 40 points from Edey or they likely would not even be here for this match-up today with, arguably, an even more dangerous dog. This Pack team is playing the underdog role perfectly as their confidence is building with each win and they feel no pressure. All the pressure here is on the Boilers to advance. As a result, don't be surprised if Purdue has another very ugly shooting performance here. Points are as high as 9.5 as of 10 hours before tipoff! Grab the big points! NC STATE (+) |
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04-05-24 | Heat -2.5 v. Rockets | Top | 119-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Friday Miami Heat (-) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:10 ET - As of very early game day morning the Heat are in the -2.5 to -3 range and some money lines are still as low as the -125 to -135 range. I am jumping all over this one early because the Rockets season ended last night. Houston is still mathematically alive but their season effectively ended after they wasted a glorious opportunity last night. The battle for the final play-in position for the upcoming post-season is basically down to just Golden State and Houston. The Rockets were hosting the Warriors last night. They had a chance to move within 2 games of GS with a win. Instead they lost and dropped 4 games back with only 6 games to go. That said, their season is finished and they know it! For me, it is not just about the loss last night, it is the fact that the Rockets got blown out on their home floor and actually were outscored by the Warriors in all 4 quarters! What kind of team is that when you can't accomplish anything in the biggest game of your season! Give some credit to the Warriors for sure but the fact is the Rockets are as soft as a wet paper towel right now! The Heat come into this game hungry and fired up off the home loss to the Sixers last night. That was a tight game and Miami is in a battle with teams like the 76ers and Pacers to secure the #6 seed in the conference and avoid the play-in round. That said, though they fell short last night, the Heat but in a helluva strong effort. Also, they could get Herro back tonight on the floor and that will be another big boost. The Rockets lost starter Amen Thompson to a rolled ankle late in yesterday's game. He has averaged 30 minutes per game last 9 games and they may not rush him back considering their season, as noted above, is effectively over now. This is a great spot to back the Heat at a great number! MIAMI (-) |
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04-03-24 | Magic v. Pelicans -3.5 | Top | 117-108 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday New Orleans Pelicans (-) vs Orlando Magic @ 8 ET - This line has dropped down a little from 4.5 to 3.5 and I like the value with the home team laying a short price. They have revenge from a loss at Orlando less than 2 weeks ago. That is actually one of the few wins that the Magic have over a quality opponent in many many weeks! If you look at Orlando's schedule, even though they have been hot overall, they have played a ton of bad teams. The Magic schedule has been friendly, to say the least, but that changes here. They are on the road and facing an angry revenge-minded team. The reason the Pelicans are not in a good mood is they are off B2B losses in addition to seeking revenge here. Very early this season New Orleans had a 5 games losing streak. However, from mid-November onward, the Pelicans have gone 5-1 SU when they enter a game off 2 or more consecutive losses. That said, strong odds on a response here from New Orleans even though they are still without Brandon Ingram. By the way, those 5 wins when in this situation included many double digit blowouts and the smallest margin of victory was a 7 point win. The Pelicans roll here. Home court, revenge and situational factors all are in favor of the Pelicans in this one. NEW ORLEANS (-) |
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04-02-24 | Thunder v. 76ers +5.5 | Top | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 7:30 ET - Joel Embiid is coming back and YES I do know that it is NOT tonight but just the fact he has been practicing with the team and is expect to see his first action on the Sixers upcoming road trip has the 76ers buzzing! They have been ultra competitive of late even without him and the 5.5 points (as of about 8 hours before tipoff) is definitely a solid value in this spot. Philadelphia has won 2 of last 3 at home and the lone loss was by a single point (to the Clippers) and the Sixers were robbed by a foul that wasn't called in the final seconds. The point is Philly could easily be 3-0 L3 at home. Also, their loss just before the 15-point win over Toronto was a defeat by just 3 points at Cleveland. So the Sixers are already gearing up for Embiid's return and they catch the Thunder at a great time for an upset. Oklahoma City is off B2B wins over Phoenix and then at New York (by 1 point) and they have a tougher match-up with Boston on deck. The Thunder might underestimate the Embiid-less Sixers in this one and Philly has great upset potential here with the way they match up with the Thunder. If they do lose, look for it to be by the slimmest of margins. Grab the points with the home dog. PHILADELPHIA (+) |
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03-31-24 | NC State +7.5 v. Duke | Top | 76-64 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
NCAA Tourney Sunday NC State Wolfpack (+) vs Duke Blue Devils @ 5:05 ET - This line is up to as high as a 7.5 as of 9 hours before tipoff and it is too much in my opinion. Seemingly every year a lower-seed team becomes the Cinderella in the tourney and goes on a magical run. This season that team has been NC State and I am not going to let this value-packed opportunity pass me by. Entering Sunday, there are 6 teams still alive for the National Championship and the one and only team seeded lower than a #4 seed out of all these teams is the Wolfpack team. Of course Duke is solid in their own right and they lost to NC State in the ACC Tourney. That makes this a revenge game but while revenge is a key motivator and can be very important in regular season settings, it truly does not mean a damn thing in post-season situations because who is not motivated in the post-season? The Wolfpack are just as motivated to have a shot at winning the national championship as the Blue Devils are. That said, I love the big dog line value here. Duke should not even be here. If Houston did not lose their start guard EARLY in the Sweet 16 match-up, the Cougars don't lose that game. That said, the Blue Devils luck might just run out here but if they do find a way to win I do not expect them to cover this spread. Give Duke credit for beating Houston of course but again that game could have an asterisk by it. Now consider that the two teams they played before that were James Madison from the Sun Belt and Vermont from America East. Again, I am just pointing out good fortune for the Blue Devils in getting to this point. As for NC State, they are on an 8-game winning streak and 6 of the wins were against major conference teams that all had at least 20 wins this season: Syracuse, Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Texas Tech and Marquette. Those are NOT easy teams to keep a winning streak going against so my point is that it is 100% NO FLUKE that the Wolfpack have made it this far. Sometimes a team just jells at the perfect time and becomes a team of destiny. That is the look and feel that this NC State team has this season. Again, maybe the magical run ends here but 8 of the last 10 losses for the Pack have been by single digits and, if they do fall short here, look for it to be by a very slim margin. The Wolfpack are loaded with confidence right now and all the pressure in this one is on Duke as they are expected to win. This makes for a dangerous underdog. The Pack are that dog and this one goes down to the wire. NC STATE (+) |
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03-30-24 | Bucks v. Hawks +4.5 | Top | 122-113 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
NBA Saturday Atlanta Hawks (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:40 ET - The Bucks will be without Lillard here while the Hawks could have Jalen Johnson back and he has been playing well. Speaking of playing well, Atlanta has been overall as they have won 4 straight including beating Boston twice! The Hawks have won 7 of last 8 home games while the Bucks are on the road and have some injury issues to deal with here also. Some guys are not 100% for sure. Also, Milwaukee has lost 3 straight road games and 5 of last 6. This is a high value home dog spot as the Hawks have been the hotter team of late plus they are the healthier team right now even though they remain without Trae Young of course. Dejounte Murray is off a 44-point game and has scored 28 points or more in 4 of his last 5 games. This is a classic case of long-term metrics getting too much credit compared to the true current situation. As a result, line value that is off the charts good as Hawks stay hot at home while the Bucks road struggles continue. ATLANTA (+) |
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03-30-24 | Blackhawks v. Flyers -1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
NHL Saturday Philadelphia Puck Line -1.5 vs Chicago Blackhawks @ 7 ET - Flyers are a heavy favorite on the money line here with good reason of course. However, the value is on the puck line where you get a -110 price by taking the Flyers to win this one by at least 2 goals. Of course, the Blackhawks season has been over for a long time while, conversely, Philly is fighting hard to secure a playoff spot. Philly has had a tough schedule of late but they let a good opportunity get away from them when they lost to the Canadiens at Montreal. That was a 3rd straight loss for Philly but now they are back at home where they have won 8 of 12 in this building. Also, Chicago has seen each of their last 8 losses come by at least a 2-goal margin and, amazingly, the Blackhawks have lost 26 of last 28 games! In other words, no hesitation in grabbing the Flyers here. PHILADELPHIA -1.5 |
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03-30-24 | Illinois +9 v. Connecticut | Top | 52-77 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
NCAA Elite Eight Saturday Illinois Illini (+) vs Connecticut Huskies @ 6:09 ET - You knew it was only a matter of time before the upsets started rolling in finally. Sure enough, in the Sweet 16 round, the higher seeded team LOST 5 of the 8 matchups. Now, I am certainly not saying the Illini win this game outright but I would not be shocked if they did. Connecticut was the only higher seed to win their game in the 4 Thursday games. In the past 2 days we have seen two #1 seeds and three #2 seeds lose. Illinois is a very strong team on the offensive end. Of course it goes without saying that the defending champs are a sizable favorite here with good reason as they have earned it. However, the Illini - just like UConn - are a very efficient club on the offensive end. Illinois gets that high efficiency in part because they - again, just like the Huskies - score well both inside and outside. The key here is that keeps the pressure on Connecticut here as long scoring droughts are highly unlikely with this Illini team. Illinois has 8 losses this season but not a single one by double digits. For Connecticut to get the money they essentially have to win this game by double digits. Another I like about that is the fact it has been awhile since the Huskies were challenged. That was in a 5-point win over St John's in the Big East tourney. Another interesting thing about that is the line was nearly identical to this line. Are the Red Storm really as good as the Illini? No way! That said, the fact is we are getting an inflated line here because the Huskies have just steamrolled teams in 4 straight games since that tighter win over St John's. Lets take advantage of the line value available now in this one as a result! ILLINOIS (+) |
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03-29-24 | Creighton +3.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 75-82 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
NCAA Friday Creighton Bluejays (+) vs Tennessee Volunteers @ 10:10 ET - We saw 3 of the 4 lower-seeded teams in the 4 match-ups yesterday win outright. With this line now climbing as high as a 3.5 in some spots, it is go time with this one. The Volunteers are off that huge win over Texas which is, of course, where Vols coach Rick Barnes was head coach for years. Tennessee's Rick Barnes has a history of falling short of expectations and just like that non-covering win over the Longhorns, I expect another very tight game here. The Bluejays have a great shot at the upset but we will grab the points just in case. Creighton is also off a hard-fought win as they wree taken to double-OT by Oregon. That was a fortunate cover for me in that game but the fact is it also shows this could be a season that was "meant to be" for Creighton. The Big East is so tough and absolutely deserved more than 3 teams making the tourney. Note that all 3 teams are still alive with UConn winning yesterday and Creighton and Marquette playing today. Also, Seton Hall made the quarterfinals of the NIT and could win that tournament. I am not sold on the SEC like I am on the Big East as so many of the SEC teams got bounced early. I know that Alabama upset UNC yesterday but now don't be surprised if we see another upset involving the other SEC team left in the tourney today. I will grab the points just in case but remember also that Tennessee lost their final regular season SEC game and then immediately got bounced in the SEC Tourney. Just how good is this team really? They have since beat a MAAC school and yes they then beat Texas but the Horns were turnover-prone and it cost them the game. Note that Tennessee's last two games against Power 5 conference teams - Texas and Mississippi State - saw them shoot a combined 41 of 127 from the field including a paltry 11 of 58 from 3-point land. That will not cut it against sharp-shooting Creighton. The Bluejays plus the points is the value play here. CREIGHTON (+) |
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03-29-24 | 76ers +8.5 v. Cavs | Top | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Friday Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:40 ET - The Sixers are fired up after they were robbed by the refs at home against the Clippers and it cost them a win. Of course that does not mean they automatically bounce back with a SU win here. However, it does mean they will give a strong effort and that should be enough for at least the ATS cover in this one. They are getting 8.5 points as of about 6 hours before tipoff for this one and the Cavs seem over-valued here. Even if they get some players back for this one, the Cavaliers are truly a banged up team right now. Also, though the Sixers have been struggling they are competing hard and Cleveland has not exactly been lighting the world on fire of late. In fact, the Cavs have lost 7 of 10 games and 1 of the wins was by just 5 points. The Sixers are in this one all the way. Philly is only 3-4 SU last 7 games but 2 of the 4 losses by 7 or less points. Huge hungry underdog value here as 76ers come out firing on all cylinders after feeling they were dealt a bad break loss against the Clippers. The Sixers have won 2 of the 3 meetings this season and their only loss was by 3 points in overtime! Grab the generous points here. PHILADELPHIA (+) |
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03-29-24 | Gonzaga +5.5 v. Purdue | Top | 68-80 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
NCAA Friday Gonzaga Bulldogs (+) vs Purdue Boilermakers @ 7:39 ET - When these teams met earlier this season in the Maui Invitational, the Bulldogs led by 5 at the half. The problem for Gonzaga was they shot a ridiculous 6 of 32 from three point land. Given that number they should have lost the game by much more than just 10 points. This Bulldogs team is battle tested and they also faced UConn this season. Gonzaga will not be intimidated here and they have a solid 7-man playing rotation. Two of their top guys also ended up with 4 fouls in that prior meeting and that also impacted things. I look for the Bulldogs to be much stronger in the rematch and all the pressure is truly on Purdue here. The Boilermakers are a #1 seed and, as we saw yesterday, with so many strong seeds advancing, the higher seeded team is prone to upsets. 3 of the 4 games Thursday saw the lower seeded team win the game. I would not be surprised to see the underdog Bulldogs win this game outright but we will grab the points just in case as getting 5.5 here is a huge value for sure. GONZAGA (+) |
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03-28-24 | San Diego State +11 v. Connecticut | Top | 52-82 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
NCAA Tourney Thursday: San Diego State Aztecs (+) vs Connecticut Huskies @ 7:40 ET - The Aztecs have lost 10 games this season but only 1 was by a double digit margin. Now, of course, the Huskies are the defending champs and are a big favorite with plenty of reasoning behind it. However, the point is that this Aztecs team is a tough team too. They come from a Mountain West Conference that was very tough this season. Also, they have revenge here from losing the Championship Game to UConn last season. Note that, in that game, the Aztecs were down by just 5 points with about 5 minutes to go when the Huskies hit a big 3-pointer and then eventually pulled away for the win by 17 points. The point is that the game was not the blowout it might look like on the surface in terms of the final score. That experience in the Championship Game will do the Aztecs plenty of good here in the rematch. They have the full confidence that they can compete with this Huskies and, while it seems nearly everyone is practically considering Connecticut B2B champs already, I am not so sure. It is so tough to repeat and so many things have to go right and this Aztecs team can D up. So what happens if the shots are not falling for the Huskies and a tough defensive-minded team like San Diego State gets a lead and can play from in front? Not including OT points of course, the Aztecs have allowed an average of only 63 points last 15 games! The Huskies have a great D too and have allowed more than 67 points just twice in last 9 games but the point is the Aztecs are being a little undervalued here with this inflated number in the 11 range as of 12 hours before tipoff. This game is going to be a war and I expect it to be decided by single digits as a result. The Aztecs have good size on the wings and Jaedon LeDee has been a beast this season for them this season and he was only playing 19 minutes per game on average last season. He will be much more of a handful for the Huskies to contend with this time around! Grab the big points here! SAN DIEGO STATE (+) |
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03-28-24 | Clemson +7.5 v. Arizona | Top | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
NCAA Tourney Thursday: Clemson Tigers (+) vs Arizona Wildcats @ 7:10 ET - Clemson is hot at the right time. The Tigers beat a solid New Mexico team and strong Baylor team to get here. I like what I have seen. Yes, Arizona is a tough team but this line is in the 7.5 range and looks like too much. Clemson's final 6 regular season losses were ALL by 7 or less points and, in fact, were by an average margin of defeat of just 3 points. Arizona lost 2 of 3 entering the Big Dance and then got a freebie by facing an outclassed Long Beach State in their first match-up. Though facing Dayton was then a tougher 2nd round match-up, note that the Flyers had 6 more field goal attempts in the game. Dayton was simply done in by an off-shooting night from downtown in that game. Note that Clemson has been hot from the field and has 4 guys averaging double digits in points so far in the tourney. Getting balanced scoring is key going up against a tough Arizona team and I like the fact that Chase Hunter has gotten particularly hot. His strong play at the guard position (15 or more points in 7 of last 9 games including 20+ so far in both tourney games) helps take some pressure off leading scorer PJ Hall. But Hall does combine with Schieffelin for solid frontcourt scoring while Hunter and Girard are getting it done in the backcourt. A balanced attack can hang tough with this Arizona team and the Tigers confidence is very high entering this match-up. It is not just coincidence that there are 4 ACC teams in the Sweet 16! At the same time, Arizona is the only team remaining from the Pac-12. Grab the points here! CLEMSON (+) |
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03-27-24 | Clippers v. 76ers +6 | Top | 108-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers +6 vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 7:40 ET - I really want to take the money line here but the 6 points is certainly nice, added insurance but take a good look at this one because the SU trending is quite impressive! The Clippers are only 5-7 SU L12 games. Simply put, LA has just not been playing that well. This is especially true when you look at the teams they have beaten. They beat the Bulls twice but Chicago has a losing record this season. They beat the Blazers twice but Portland is a poor 19-53 this season. So the only other win must have been against a powerhouse, right? Nope, not at all. The other win was over a Rockets team that would not even make the play-in round of the post-season if the season ended today. All of this said, these struggling Clippers are now favored by a half-dozen points against a respectable Sixers team. Of course Philly is without Embiid and yes the Clips have revenge here for the loss to the 76ers in LA last week. However, this line is still far too high in my opinion. The 76ers are happy to be back home as they have played only two home games in the last 2 and 1/2 weeks and yes they won both games. Grab the points here as the value is with the home dog in this one. PHILADELPHIA +6 |
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03-27-24 | UNLV +5.5 v. Seton Hall | Top | 68-91 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
NIT Semi-Final Wednesday UNLV Runnin' Rebels +5.5 @ Seton Hall Pirates @ 7 ET - Certainly I respect the Pirates and, particularly at home, but this Rebels team is also strong and well-coached too - just like Seton Hall. What I particularly like about UNLV here is that they are on a 12-3 SU and 2 of the 3 losses were by just 3 points. Also, the 3 games included two losses to Nevada (NCAA Tourney team) and a loss to San Diego State (still alive in NCAA Tourney and facing UConn next). The point is that this Rebels team has been rock solid and is offering excellent underdog line value here. Remember they were 8-3 on the road this season. As solid as Seton Hall is, it took OT for them to get past an underachieving St Joseph's team in round one of this tourney. Also, the Pirates beat North Texas by 14 but the Mean Green had 5 more shots from the field. North Texas simply had an off shooting night. Give some credit to the Pirates defense of course but Seton Hall now faces a much tougher challenge here. Grab the underdog line value with a team that has played very well on the road this season. I like fading line moves too as this one has been moving toward the Pirates since the line came out. UNLV +5.5 |
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03-26-24 | Cincinnati +3.5 v. Indiana State | Top | 81-85 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
NIT Tuesday Cincinnati Bearcats +3.5 @ Indiana State Sycamores @ 9 ET - Look at the two NIT match-ups today and you will notice something very interesting about the difference in the lines on the two games. As long-time followers know, I am a contrarian. When people see something off and jump all over it you will often find me, if I am on the game, absolutely on the other side of the masses. So, in this case, notice that Ohio State is hosting Georgia and the Buckeyes are favored by 8.5 in that one and have the better overall record plus a home record of 15-4 facing a Bulldogs team with a road record of 5-6. Now look at this game. Indiana State has a much better overall record than Cincinnati plus the Sycamores are 15-1 at home while the Bearcats are 4-7 on the road and yet this line opened up at 2.5 in most shops. Sure enough Indiana State is up to a 3.5 point favorite in this one and, for me, it is go time on this one! Whey in the world would the Buckeyes be 8.5 point favorites over Georgia today but the Sycamores opened up as only a 2.5 favorite over the Bearcats when you consider the home / road dominating variances involved in each match-up? Exactly! Don't let this line fool you. Cincy is the play here. Keep in mind, the Bearcats played in the ultra tough Big 12 this season and they are 15-2 in non-conference games with the only two losses to Xavier and Dayton. The Musketeers also made the NIT and the Flyers made the NCAA Tourney. Cincy is a tough team battle-tested and the Sycamores are certainly solid but this line is set "funny" for a reason and I love fading the masses. Road team in an upset is my prediction BUT will grab the value of the points just in case. CINCINNATI +3.5 |
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03-25-24 | 76ers +9.5 v. Kings | Top | 96-108 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
NBA Monday Philadelphia 76ers +9.5 @ Sacramento Kings @ 10 ET - Yes, the Sixers are in a B2B spot but they have momentum on their side after knocking off the Clippers last night in LA. Also, they only had two players go big minutes in that game so this Philly team will not be as worn out as one might expect in a B2B. Additionally, Sacramento just got back from a trip back east. Yes, the Kings were off yesterday but they had a lot of travel including coming all the way back from Orlando. Also, if you look at the long-term trending of the Kings this season, they do not have a history of blowing teams out. They are only 18-15 SU last 33 games and many of those wins by a single digit margin. In fact, only 9 times in last 33 games have the Kings won the game by double digits. I like this hungry Sixers team in this spot to stay within the inflated number. They have the shooters to hit enough shots from outside to stay within striking distance of Sacramento throughout this game. PHILADELPHIA +9.5 |
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03-25-24 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Tarleton State -5 | Top | 73-72 | Loss | -114 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
CIT Semi-Final: Monday Tarleton State Texans -5 vs IPFW Mastodons @ 7 ET - This is the match-up I wanted and so I am getting involved in this one with a best bet. IPFW was "okay" this season but they still finished in the bottom half of the Horizon League as they finished 7th in the 11-team league. The Mastodons are decently offensively but how well will their shots fall on the road here? Also, IPFW is not good defensively. The Texans, therefore, hold a big defensive edge in addition to also having the home court edge. Also, Tarleton State finished 2nd in the 11-team WAC and the team they finished behind was Grand Canyon. Yes, that same Grand Canyon team that just beat St Mary's in the NCAA Tourney plus would have also upset Alabama were it not for a horrific shooting effort including just 2 of 20 from three-point land! So the point is we have value here with Texans laying a very reasonable number at home in this one. They went 13-3 at home while IPFW went 9-7 on the road this season. Also, 9 of the 12 Mastodons losses this season were by at least 6 points and this one will be too! TARLETON STATE -5 |
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03-24-24 | Grand Canyon +6 v. Alabama | Top | 61-72 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
NCAA Sunday Grand Canyon Lopes +6.5 vs Alabama Crimson Tide @ 7:10 ET - It is unlikely that A & M tops Houston as a double digit dog today. That said, it would not surprise me if Tennessee is the last team standing from the SEC entering the Sweet 16. Yes, another upset win for Grand Canyon is not out of the question here but we will grab the points as added insurance just in case. The fact is that the SEC was over-rated this season and we have seen that play out time and time again in this tourney. Even though the Vols are still standing they are just 1-1 ATS in the tourney after barely sneaking by Texas last night. As for the Crimson Tide they had lost 4 of 6 games before knocking off Charleston to open up the tourney. Yes, they won by double digits but they allowed 96 points to a Coastal Athletic Association team! Conversely, Grand Canyon enters this game having won 6 straight and 30 of 34 this season. Though they come from a weaker conference, I like the fact the Lopes put up an average of 75 ppg in their 4 games versus respectable non-conference foes like San Francisco, South Carolina, San Diego State and now St Mary's to begin the tourney with an upset. Also, they allowed just 71 ppg in those 4 games and one has to have a little concern over Alabama's lack of D in their opening win! Yes, the Tide can score well but they have allowed an AVERAGE of 94 ppg last 11 games! There is nothing "average" about that and this Lopes team has proven they can compete with teams from stronger conferences. This goes to the wire and an outright upset would not shock me in the least! GRAND CANYON +6.5 |
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03-24-24 | Colorado +4 v. Marquette | Top | 77-81 | Push | 0 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
NCAA Tourney Sunday Colorado Buffaloes +4 vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 12:10 ET - I am going to keep riding the Buffaloes. As I have stated in my recent write-ups, once they finally started winning road games their confidence sky-rocketed and they have carried that with them ever since they got on the late-season run following a much-needed road win. Colorado has never looked back and has now won 10 of 11 games. Now, of course, Marquette is a rock solid team. However, all the pressure is on them here as the #2 seed facing a #10 seed. Also, the Golden Eagles had lost 3 of 6 before the win over a #15 seed Western Kentucky team. It is certainly true those losses for Marquette were against top teams as it included #1 UConn and a ranked Creighton team as well. However, what I like about the Buffaloes is they have been so strong with shooting from all over the floor of late. They are playing with a ton of confidence and they are the stronger rebounding team. A big edge on the glass could also end up being the edge that decides this game. No points needed most likely but if the game is ultra tight late and swings the way of Marquette, the 4 points could come in handy. The Golden Eagles are known for being a solid shooting team but the Buffaloes are knocking down 3's nearly as well as any team in the country on the season. Also, Colorado is the better team at the free throw line too which can be a key in tight games when in tourney time like this especially. The points are quite generous considering all of the above. COLORADO +4 |
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03-23-24 | Oregon v. Creighton -4.5 | Top | 73-86 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
Rotation #794: NCAA Tourney: Saturday Creighton Bluejays -4.5 vs Oregon Ducks @ 9:40 ET - As I mentioned in my pick on Oregon over South Carolina, the Ducks have a great head coach and they had a huge coaching advantage in that game. However, now they take on a Bluejays team that also has an excellent head coach. Both Dana Altman and Greg McDermott are veteran coaches with a helluva winning track record long-term. In fact, Altman used to coach at Creighton and was there for a long period from the mid-90s through 2010. So what does this match-up come down to? Well, there are big edges for Creighton in this one as they have a cohesive group of players that have multiple seasons of experience together. That pays off in tougher match-ups like this one. As for Oregon, they rely heavily on a trio of guys that include a freshman plus a senior that played his first 3 years at South Carolina. Now Couisnard is off the huge game versus his former team but again, he and Shelstad and Dante don't have quite the same level of cohesiveness that this Bluejays team has with their guys having all played together for multiple seasons. That creates a bond in big game situations that does make a big difference. I also like the rebounding edge going to Creighton in this match-up as well. The seeding for these tournaments is not easy and is often debated but the fact is they do, for the most part, a damn good job. That said, a #3 seed laying just 4.5 points to a #11 seed is quite a solid value. It is not a mistake as the Ducks are on everyone's radar right now after the Pac-12 Tourney run but, the point is, it has created value in the marketplace. Here we take advantage! CREIGHTON -4.5 |
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03-23-24 | Texas +6.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
Rotation #791: NCAA Tourney: Saturday Texas Longhorns +6.5 vs Tennessee Volunteers @ 8 ET - Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes was the head coach at Texas for many years from '98 to 2015! That adds extra intrigue to an already intriguing match-up. The pressure this match-up is truly on the Volunteers as they are they higher seed and are expected by most to advance to the Sweet 16 (at the very least) this season. I love fading pressure-filled favorites that might be over-valued! Why would the Vols be over-valued a bit? Well the SEC has had a rough go of it in the tourney already. Auburn and Florida lost yesterday after Kentucky was one of 3 SEC teams that were beaten Thursday. The Wildcats were one of the biggest upsets thus far and they joined South Carolina and Mississippi State in exiting the tourney on the first day of it! This is contrary to the Big 12 which still has Baylor and Kansas and Houston and Iowa State as well as this Texas team still alive in the Big Dance. So one must remember that most of the Vols games the past few months, of course, have been against SEC competition which may not be as tough as some thought! When you look back at Tennessee non-conference action it includes losses to Tourney teams like Purdue and Kansas and North Carolina. Granted those are great teams but, the point is, do the Volunteers (from an over-rated SEC) really deserve to be favored by this much over a solid Texas team? In my opinion, absolutely not! Keep in mind, coach Barnes has a long history of his teams underachieving in March Madness. Of course they beat an outclassed Saint Peter's team to open things up but the Longhorns beat a solid Colorado State team by a double digit margin and held them to just 44 points. Look for this one to go down to the wire making the points invaluable. TEXAS +6.5 |
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03-23-24 | Washington State +7 v. Iowa State | Top | 56-67 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Rotation #799: NCAA Tourney: Saturday Washington State Cougars +6.5 vs Iowa State Cyclones @ 6:10 ET - Lot of value with the points in this one. The Cougars are 25-9 SU this season. Washington State has seen 4 of last 5 losses come by 6 or less points. Since the calendar flipped the page to the year 2024, only one time have the Cougars lost by more than 6 points! As for Iowa State, they are a strong team from the tough Big 12. However, the Cyclones averaged 66.8 ppg last 9 games of the regular season including conference tourney. The Cougars averaged 74 ppg their last 8 games before losing to Colorado in a low-scoring grinder in the Pac-12 Tourney. The point is that Iowa State does have a solid defense but this Washington State offense has been consistent and they just do not get blown out in games. The Cougars defense is not that far behind that of Iowa State's and also the underdog holds a big edge in this one in the rebounding department. The Cougars are also 4-0 SU this season in games decided by 4 or less points so this team knows how to win tight games. I do think we could see an outright upset here but will grab the generous points just in case. WASHINGTON STATE +6.5 |
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03-22-24 | TCU -3.5 v. Utah State | Top | 72-88 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
NCAA Friday TCU Horned Frogs -3.5 vs Utah State Aggies @ 9:55 ET - The Mountain West teams are already falling in this tourney. Utah State is no slouch for sure but TCU played in the brutal Big 12 this season and this battle-tested Horned Frogs hold the edge in terms of strength of schedule the way I see it. Also, note that the Aggies went only 3-5 against the other MWC teams that won 24 or more games this season - Colorado State, San Diego State, New Mexico and Nevada. Just like Texas knocked off Colorado State yesterday, this is another spot where a solid Big 12 team is going to knock off a MWC foe. Keep in mind, Nevada also lost yesterday to the #3 team in the Atlantic Ten. I am just as sold on this MWC team being as strong as some contend it is. At the same time there is no questioning the Big 12 was a powerhouse conference this season made even stronger with the additions of Houston and Cincinnati this season. The Horned Frogs just got hammered by a great Houston team by 15 to get knocked out of the Big 12 Tourney. But including 3-0 this season and dating back to last season, TCU is 4-0 L4 times they have entered a game off loss by at least a dozen point margin. By the way, all 4 of those wins by at least a dozen points and the line here on this one is available at 3.5 at the time of this posting. Lay it! TCU -3.5 |
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03-22-24 | Colorado +1.5 v. Florida | Top | 102-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
NCAA Friday Colorado Buffaloes +1.5 vs Florida Gators @ 4:30 ET - I have been riding the Buffaloes hot streak for awhile now and I will not stop now! We saw the SEC struggle yesterday as 3 teams already got knocked out including #3 Kentucky upset by a #14 seed! The only SEC winner yesterday was Tennessee and that was a #15 versus #2 mismatch. As for the Pac-12, they are rolling. Note that Utah also advanced in the NIT and here in the NCAA, Arizona and Washington State and Oregon all advanced. Colorado has won 9 of 10 games and the only loss was to the Ducks who have a great coach in Altman and know how to win at Tourney time. They showed that gain yesterday against South Carolina. So no shame in that one loss for the Buffaloes last 10 games and once this Buffs team started proving they can win away from home, their confidence level was boosted greatly. This team is truly starting to believe and is playing with a ton of confidence. That will lead the way again in this one and I look for Florida to struggle again on the defensive end. Yes, the Gators can put up big points but this Florida team has allowed at least 79 points in 10 of last 12 games. This is the time of year when defense really matters. I know the Gators offense is strong but their points against numbers leave a lot to be desired. As for the Buffaloes, they have allowed 58 points or less in 4 of last 5 games and that included solid foes like Boise State, Utah and Washington State. Both teams should score well here but in the end, this Colorado team certainly appears more capable of getting enough stops for the win. COLORADO +1.5 |
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03-22-24 | Northwestern +4 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 77-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
NCAA Friday Northwestern Wildcats +4 vs Florida Atlantic Owls @ 12:15 ET - These are two very good offenses but what I like about the Wildcats here is they actually play defense quite well for extended stretches while the Owls almost never do. Additionally we have 4 points to work with here too. I feel this is a fantastic value for grabbing Northwestern and the points. The Wildcats enter this one having won 6 of 10 games. In those 10 games they had one high-scoring loss to Iowa 87-80 (one outlier) but allowed an average of only 64 points in the other 9 games! Conversely, FAU is 5-3 L8 games and there was no outlier as they allowed 77 points in these 8 games and consistently allowed big points. In a win or go home game in the NCAA Tourney against two teams most experts view as equal, I am happy to grab the better defensive team and the 4 points! Also, the last two losses for Florida Atlantic were to a Memphis team that lost 8 of 15 games to wrap the season and also to a Temple team that went 5-13 in conference action this season. Northwestern's last 3 losses were to Iowa, Michigan State and Wisconsin! All 3 of those are Big Dance teams and the Hawkeyes and Spartans advance already with wins yesterday while the Badgers are favored to win today on Friday as well. All signs above are pointing to the fact that the Owls are over-valued here and the Wildcats are undervalued! I will gladly take the generous points here as added insurance though I am making this wager expecting an outright underdog upset win. NORTHWESTERN +4 |
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03-21-24 | NC State v. Texas Tech -4.5 | Top | 80-67 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
NCAA Thursday Texas Tech Red Raiders (-) vs NC State Wolfpack @ 9:40 ET - Give credit where credit is due and NC State had a helluva run through the ACC Tourney. However, they were fortunate to force OT against a late-game mistake-prone Virginia team. Then they beat rival North Carolina despite the Tar Heels having 16 more shot attempts from the field in that game. Also, the Pack made 6 of 8 threes while UNC took 30 threes but made only 8 of them! Again, give the Wolfpack credit but the fact remains both the Cavaliers and Heels played a role in giving victories away in each game. The result is line value here. NC State is a little overvalued now and Texas Tech, knocked out the Big 12 Tourney by Houston (one of the nations best), is now undervalued as a result. The Red Raiders had a better regular season than NC State but the Wolfpack got hot in the Tourney. This is a new tourney now however! Though Texas Tech has a new coach this season in Grant McCasland, he has a 375-131 career coaching record and has had success every step of the way no matter where he has been and what level the program was. Junior College, Division II and now Division 1 for the past 8 seasons. McCasland is a winner. Kevin Keatts has been solid for NC State but Keatts is 0-4 SU all time in NCAA tournament action - twice with NC St and twice with UNC Wilmington. 11 of 14 Wolfpack SU losses have been by at least 4 points this season! 19 of 23 Red Raiders wins have been by 6 or more points this season. Lay it! TEXAS TECH -4.5 |
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03-21-24 | Flyers +1.5 v. Hurricanes | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Thursday Philadelphia Flyers +1.5 -120 @ Carolina Hurricanes @ 7 ET - The Hurricanes are playing really well and have won 4 straight games. However, prior to a comfortable 4-0 win in most recent home game, the Canes actually had only 10 wins by a multi-goal margin in their last 27 home games. The Flyers are a scrappy team that is tough to beat by a multi-goal margin so this is actually a great spot for a dog puck line play. Philly, ever since the All-Star break, has had just 4 losses by more than 1 goal in 19 games! So, as you can see, in looking at Hurricanes home games and Flyers games overall, the odds favor a tight game here in which the Flyers hang around all game long as they so often do. They have a legit shot at the post-season and continue to play with a lot of energy and passion even as they battle through injuries. PHILADELPHIA +1.5 -120 |
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03-21-24 | Colorado State v. Texas -2 | Top | 44-56 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
NCAA Thursday Texas Longhorns -2 vs Colorado State Rams @ 6:50 ET - For whatever reason, Virginia was not ready when they faced Colorado State. It was an embarrassment and the Cavaliers offense was pathetic and they missed the last 15 field goal attempts they took in the first half of that game. That was a 1st half in which they ended up scoring just 14 points. That is an embarrassment and while some credit goes to the Rams, the ugly margin of that game had a lot to do with a Cavs team that was ill-prepared. That is not happening again here. Now Colorado State faces a Longhorns team that will be ready and that plays in one of the toughest conferences in the land. The Big 12 has 6 Top 25 teams and the MWC has 2. The Mountain West is a solid conference but this goes to show how the markets can sometimes get a big misaligned on a game and that is the situation we have here in my opinion. The Longhorns off a tough tight loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 Tourney and UT is 9-2 SU this season when they are off a loss. As for Colorado State, they just beat a Cavaliers team that gave an embarrassing effort. Prior to that they did have a nice win over a solid Nevada team but went 3-4 in their other 7 games since the 21st of February. Those 3 wins were against 3 of the bottom-feeders in MWC - Wyoming, San Jose State and Air Force. Those 3 teams went a combined 12-42 in the MWC this season. The Rams are a solid team...but they are not as strong as the Longhorns! This is a HUGE line VALUE! Lay the bargain number here! TEXAS -2 |
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03-21-24 | Oregon +1.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 87-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
NCAA Thursday: Oregon Ducks +1.5 -120/-125 or Pick'em -110 vs South Carolina Gamecocks @ 4 ET - Take a look at the other 11 vs 6 match-ups on the card today. The 6 seed is favored solidly in each one with Texas Tech -5 and BYU -9.5 so the odds makers must be crazy here with this line near a pick'em, right? Of course not! This game is priced atypical to an 11 seed vs 6 seed match-up with good reason. For starters, the only loss that red hot Colorado has in last 10 games was to this Oregon team in the Pac-12 Championship. That is the same Buffaloes team that just knocked off a solid Boise State last night in the First Four to advance. I know South Carolina just got embarrassed by Auburn in the SEC Tourney and would like to respond here. However, the Gamecocks also got drilled by Auburn in the regular season plus lost AT HOME to Tennessee in the regular season plus got embarrassed at Alabama too. Those are 3 of the best teams in the SEC so against strong teams, South Carolina has had some major slip-ups with 3 losses ALL by 27 or more points! That is the sign of a soft team when you can get beat that bad. I am hearing the talk that now SC is playing with a chip on their shoulder here. I don't care. They are playing a tough Ducks team and a chip on your shoulder is not what wins games. This is the first time the Gamecocks have been in the tourney since 2017. Oregon did lose both regular season games with Arizona this season but then knocked them out in the Conference Tourney. Also, same thing with how their season against Colorado went. They also split with Washington State and Utah which are the other 20+ win teams from the Pac-12. The Ducks have had good post-season success in terms of advancing whether NCAA or NIT. Also if you had to pick a coach for your team in College Hoops would you rather have Dana Altman (27 straight winning seasons!) or Lamont Paris (3 ugly seasons in 6 in his career)? Altman is one of the winningest active coaches in NCAA basketball and this is a mismatch in the coaching department in my opinion and yes the Ducks have the talent on the floor to match South Carolina. Don't let this line fool you! OREGON +1.5 -120/-125 or Pick'em -110 |
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03-21-24 | Akron +12.5 v. Creighton | Top | 60-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Rotation #739: NCAA Thursday Akron Zips +12.5 vs Creighton Bluejays @ 1:30 ET - Akron undervalued here and Creighton overpriced in my opinion. The Zips come from a weaker conference and do have 10 losses on the season. However, this is a solid team defensively and I expect the Bluejays to struggle to truly pull away in this game as a result. Note that Akron had only two blowout losses in their 10 defeats this season. The other 8 losses were all by a single digit margin and, in fact, by an average margin of just 3.6 points per game! Creighton, of course, is the stronger team and from the better conference. However, another key with the Bluejays year in and year out is they tend to shoot much better at home. Of course this is a neutral site game and note that Creighton blew away the weakling Hoyas and Blue Demons at Georgetown and DePaul, respectively but look at their other last 10 games away from home. The Jays went just 4-6 SU in those 10 games and also 3 of the 4 wins were by an average margin of just 4 points! This game is going to be a lot closer than you might be expect for a 14 seed vs 3 seed match-up! Groce is a solid head coach and was at Illinois in the Big Ten before coming to Akron. He has already enjoyed great success with the Zips. They were also in the Big Dance two years ago as a 13 seed and so they faced a 4 seed. They lost that game by just 4 points to a UCLA team that went on to the Sweet 16. I just can not envision a blowout here and am confidently grabbing the big points in this one. AKRON +12.5 |
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03-20-24 | 76ers +8.5 v. Suns | Top | 102-115 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers +8.5 @ Phoenix Suns @ 10:10 ET - If you look at the board tonight there are 8 games and only 3 of them are match-ups in which both of the teams have a winning record. The Heat / Cavs appears to be an even match-up and Cleveland is favored by about their home court edge. Makes sense. The Celtics are a decent sized favorite over the Bucks but Boston is an insane 31-3 at home this season so that line makes sense as well. This Philly / Phoenix game is the outlier in my opinion. The Suns just have not been playing well enough to justify this large of a line. The Sixers, even while dealing with injuries, remain very scrappy and they have made some changes in their lineup/playing rotation of late that are already starting to pay dividends. That said, the 8.5 points here appears to be on the high side. The Suns have won just 6 of 13 games and the average margin of victory in the 6 wins, not including OT points, was just 6.5 points. Phoenix just has NOT been blowing teams away of late. The Sixers are just 5-5 L10 games but 4 of the 5 losses by a single digit margin! Don't be surprised when this one goes down to the wire. PHILADELPHIA +8.5 |
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03-20-24 | Colorado -2.5 v. Boise State | Top | 60-53 | Win | 100 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
Rotation #703: NCAA First Four Colorado Buffaloes -2.5 vs Boise State Broncos @ 9:10 ET - The Mountain West is solid but the Pac-12 is even tougher. I have plenty of respect for the Broncos but the Buffaloes really seemed to turn their season a dime when they finally figured out how to win away from home. Once they did that their confidence level exploded and they are not a different team. Yes they bowed out of the conference tourney when they lost to Oregon but the Ducks are a strong team. As solid as Boise State is, they lost all 3 HOME games against the other 3 teams that finished along with them in the top 4 of the MWC. The point is, if you can't win at home against the best teams in your conference, how can you expected to win in a neutral site game against an equally strong (if not stronger) Pac-12 team playing its best basketball of the season? Note that the Buffaloes won 3 of the 4 home games against the other 20+ win teams in their conference. The Buffs had won 8 straight games before the Ducks beat them by 7 in the Pac-12 Tourney final. Note that Colorado lost the turnover battle 13 to 3 in that game and were outscored 23 to 0 in terms of points off turnovers! Given that it is amazing they only lost the game by 7. They will clean things up again for this one and when they play clean basketball, they have been tough to beat for many weeks now. They get this win and cover the small number. COLORADO -2.5 |
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03-20-24 | San Francisco +6 v. Cincinnati | Top | 72-73 | Win | 100 | 17 h 0 m | Show |
Rotation #715: NIT Tourney: Wednesday San Francisco Dons +6 @ Cincinnati Bearcats @ 9 ET - These Bearcats started the season 12-2 but went 8-12 from then until now! The Dons have as many wins in just 12 games as the Cats had in those 20 games. Indeed, San Francisco is on an 8-4 run and the kicker is that one loss was to a 20-win Santa Clara team and the other 3 losses were against ranked teams - St Mary's and Gonzaga! This SF team is a solid shooting team that plays well on the defensive end. The Bearcats will be in a war here just to win this game let alone cover the spread. That said, I love the points here as Cincy's most recent wins included against a Kansas team that was without the two top scorers in the Big 12! Also, Cats won against Kansas State but were down in that game with just 10 seconds to go when they hit the game winner in the 1-point win. The other two wins in the past 4 weeks were against a West Virginia team that went 9-23 overall and 4-14 in Big 12 action. This Bearcats team is over-rated in this spot and the Dons having to travel to Cincinnati for this game is no big deal when they have had so much time off to prepare for this game! Grab the generous points. SAN FRANCISCO +6 |
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03-20-24 | Grambling State v. Montana State -3.5 | Top | 88-81 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Rotation #702: NCAA First Four Montana State Bobcats -3.5 vs Grambling State Tigers @ 6:40 ET - This is essentially a play based on conference strength. The fact is that the SWAC that Grambling hails from is absolutely the worst conference in Division 1 basketball. The Big Sky is certainly not a big conference but it is a much stronger conference than the SWAC. That said, the fact the Bobcats have a much stronger offense than the Tigers plus the fact that they faced a tougher overall schedule plus the fact that Grambling is in the Big Dance for the first time ever...it all adds up to a solid play on the favorite in this one! We are getting some line value here because people see the Cats were just a .500 team in the regular season and finished only 5th in their conference. However, Grambling finished first in the worst conference in Division 1. Lay the small number here with confidence. MONTANA STATE -3.5 |
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03-19-24 | Nuggets v. Wolves +7.5 | Top | 115-112 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday Minnesota Timberwolves (+) vs Denver Nuggets @ 9 ET - Yes the Timberwolves have a cluster of injuries at the big man position. However, the last time these teams met Jokic had a solid game for the Nuggets and yet the Wolves still won the game by 22 points. Outside of Jokic, the Nuggets mostly play a "small ball" lineup which is the same type of lineup Minny will be playing here because of injuries to their bigs. So, the point is that Jokic will again "get his" in this game but I don't see that translating to a huge road win here. Minny is tough at home and this is a key divisional battle and they will not just "lay down" here because they are without Towns and Gobert. In fact, you might even see a more feisty effort from the Wolves here as a result! Look for Minnesota to be aggressive here as it is the wounded dog that often bites the hardest. This is just too many points to give the Timberwolves when at home and hosting the defending champs and a division rival. Playing their first home game in two weeks, Minnesota is absolutely going to make the most of it here! They are getting as many as 7.5 points here as of very early game day morning! We'll take it! MINNESOTA (+) |
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03-19-24 | Colorado State v. Virginia +3 | Top | 67-42 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
Rotation #672: NCAA Tuesday Virginia Cavaliers (+) vs Colorado State Rams @ 9:10 ET - Give me the 3 points here. Maybe I have a bit of the old "East Coast bias" but I have seen others that are unbiased do have the ACC as a significantly stronger conference than the Mountain West. Note that the only two teams that Virginia finished behind in the final ACC standings were North Carolina and Duke. Those are two teams rank in the top dozen teams in the nation. Also, the team that won the ACC Tourney (NC State) is a team Virginia should have beaten but inexplicably made a couple key mistakes late that allowed the Wolfpack to tie it up and force OT. It was a gut-wrenching loss but also the Cavs can't wait to get back on the floor to make up for that here. The fact NC State then went and upset North Carolina in much easier fashion after they should have lost outright to Virginia also says a lot. This Cavs team is very well coached and annually has one of the best defenses in the nation. Colorado State is certainly a solid team but they are over-rated here. The top teams in the MWC are only in the #20 to #25 positions in the nation. Also, the Rams finished tied for 6th in the MWC while the Cavaliers were 3rd in the ACC! The Cavaliers play ugly basketball so a lot of guys don't like them. However, this time of year, that ugly defensive style can play hell with opponents and I am grabbing the underdog line value here with an angry Cavs team that is still pissed from that inexcusable loss to NC State. They will not be denied here in my opinion but grab the points for added insurance. VIRGINIA (+) |
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03-19-24 | Boston College v. Providence -3 | Top | 62-57 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Rotation #676: NIT Tuesday Providence Friars (-) vs Boston College Eagles @ 7 ET - Yes the Friars are expected to be without leading scorer Carter for this one but this line has fallen too low in my opinion. It is down to a -3 and, even without Carter, the Friars at home are stronger than these Eagles. Also, I feel Providence is one of a handful of teams that is out to prove the Big East was robbed in terms of only 3 Big East teams making the Big Dance. The Friars are hungry to prove they were one of the teams wronged and I expect a very strong performance here at home. Note that is what not that long ago that Boston College had just been obliterated by Pittsburgh and then sat at 15-14 on the season and just 6-12 in ACC games! I know the Eagles then won 4 straight, including 2 in the ACC tourney, before bowing out against Virginia. However, other than the impressive over Clemson, the other 3 wins were against a horrible Louisville team that finished 3-17 in ACC action and a Miami team that slumped badly and lost 10 straight games to the end the season. The point is the Eagles had a helluva great game against the Tigers but I am not sold on a team whose other recent wins were against bad teams considering they were also just 6-12 against conference opposition not too long ago. This Friars team had won 6 of 3 before a loss to Marquette in the Big East tourney and 3 of their last 4 losses were against the Golden Eagles and UConn - both of whom are in the Big Dance of course. Watch the Friars rise up here, even without Carter. PROVIDENCE (-) |
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03-19-24 | Wagner +3.5 v. Howard | Top | 71-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
Rotation #669: NCAA Tuesday Wagner Seahawks (+) vs Howard Bison @ 6:40 ET - Give me the 3.5 points here. If you watch the talking heads speak about this game or read preview articles you will see many people quoted about Wagner having a 7-man rotation and being short-handed because they are down two key players. Guess what? They played nearly the entirety of the season without those two players. Those two players played a combined 12 games - so an average of 6 games out of 31 on the season. In other words, this is 100% a NON-factor here. Now it would be a factor later in the tourney but there is no "later in the tourney" for either one of these teams. Whether Wagner or Howard advances either one will get blasted by North Carolina Thursday. However, I do like Wagner to advance as they ride the positive momentum of their conference tourney run. Also, most rankings do give a slight edge to the NEC over the MEAC in terms of conference power rankings. I personally feel the edge is bigger. The NEC is a little more significantly stronger than the MEAC in my opinion. I am well aware that Wagner had a sub-par regular season but they had to beat the top 3 teams in their conference (36-12 combined NEC record!) to get here! As for Howard, they had a ridiculous 3-point shooting effort in beating top seeded Norfolk State in their conference tourney but had the added benefit of their other two games against teams with a combined 13-15 conf record and overall 26-38 record. If they had faced a tougher team after upsetting Norfolk State they would have likely lost. Wagner thinks they are invincible right now. That makes for a dangerous dog. The way these two teams are playing right now, Howard is absolutely no better than Wagner. Also, the Seahawks are allowing just 54 ppg last 4 games. The Bison allowing 71 ppg L4 games. The Hawks stay hot! WAGNER (+) |
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03-18-24 | Heat v. 76ers -2 | Top | 91-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Monday Philadelphia 76ers -2 vs Miami Heat @ 7:40 ET - The 76ers will take advantage of a Heat team dealing with a myriad of injuries right now. Yes, Philly is still without Joel Embiid but he is back practicing with the team and spirts are up for the Sixers team right now as they know he'll be back sooner rather than the later. Even without Embiid, the Sixers are the overall healthier club in this match-up plus they are at home. Note that Miami is only 4-5 L9 games and here is the kicker to that! One of the wins was against a slumping Jazz team that has lost 12 of 15 games. The other THREE WINS were against a Pistons team that is one of the worst in the league. Beating those teams and winning AT Philly are vastly different things! Even a wounded Sixers team is far superior to the Pistons and the current version of the Jazz. That said, the home team should win this in solid fashion as they take advantage a Heat team that is dealing with too many banged up guys right now. PHILADELPHIA -2 |
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03-17-24 | Wisconsin v. Illinois -3 | Top | 87-93 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
CBB Sunday Illinois Illini -3 or -3.5 vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 3:30 ET - Badgers fought hard and won in OT versus the Boilermakers yesterday as they got the big upset win over Purdue. Their top 3 scorers in yesterday's win (71% of the points) played an average of 37 minutes as the game went to OT also. Now playing again today and having battled so hard to make it this far, this is the game where the juice runs out for Wisconsin. Their 3-point shooting was so hot but keeps cooling off game by game as their legs are starting to get tired. Purdue did not shoot as well as usual yesterday and also lost the turnover battle badly. Give some credit to the Badgers for sure but the Boilers caused their own demise as well. Don't look for Illinois to be so generous! This Illini team gets to the foul line well and Wisconsin had all kinds of foul trouble versus Purdue yesterday. Hats off to the Badgers for still being able to grind out the win but their big run ends here. The Illini create match-up problems with guys like Damask and Shannon just like they did in the recent regular season meeting. Getting this line in the -3 range is a great value. ILLINOIS -3 or -3.5 |
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03-17-24 | Temple +7.5 v. UAB | Top | 69-85 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
CBB Sunday Temple Owls +7.5 vs UAB Blazers @ 3:15 ET - These teams just met before the conference tourney started and Temple was embarrassed in Philly as the Blazers scored 100 points! UAB shot a ridiculous 61% from the field including 56% from 3-point land! Teams don't forget about home losses like that. The Owls have since won 5 straight games and just knocked off two of the top three teams in the conference as they beat Florida Atlantic and Charlotte. Temple underachieved in the regular season - to say the least - but they are truly battling hard now and have jelled as a team at the perfect time of year - mid-March! I am not saying they get the outright win here but I do expect them to have another very strong game and that should be good enough for at least the cover here! They have allowed just 62 ppg in their 4 games in this tourney so far. UAB has allowed 78 ppg in their last 8 games. The Blazers are the stronger overall team but the Owls are playing confident defensive-minded basketball right now and this game should go down to the wire. Grab the generous points and this one has upset potential as well. TEMPLE +7.5 |
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03-16-24 | NC State v. North Carolina -9 | Top | 84-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
Rotation #634: CBB Saturday North Carolina Tar Heels -9 vs NC State Wolfpack @ 8:30 ET - Give the Wolfpack plenty of credit of course as a win is a win and they fought hard yesterday. However, it took some late mistakes from Virginia including a key turnover and then a bank-shot 3 at the buzzer to even force OT in their eventual win over the Cavaliers. I also expect the Wolfpack to be worn out here. This is going to be their 6th game in 8 days! Conversely, North Carolina is playing just its 3rd game in 7 days! Not only is this a huge rest edge for the Tar Heels, they are absolutely the superior team in all facets of the game. I do not often lay big points in spread sports but there are exceptions. In this case, the rest factor plus the talent factor are hugely in favor of UNC. Also, the Wolfpack went just 9-11 in ACC games this season while the Tar Heels went 17-3. While 9 points may seem like a lot, half of NC State's losses this season were by 9 or more points. Given that plus the fact they are facing one of the top teams in the nation (and a rival that won't hold back given the chance to rout) and the fact they are very tired after all the basketball over the past week, this one gets ugly and UNC pulls away for blowout win by 15+ points. NORTH CAROLINA -9 |
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03-16-24 | Flyers +1.5 v. Bruins | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
NHL Saturday Philadelphia Flyers +1.5 -150 @ Boston Bruins @ 7 ET - Bruins off tight win over division rival Canadiens. Since starting the season 29-8-9, Boston has only 5 wins by more than 1 goal in last 22 games! Flyers are off an ugly 6-2 loss but this followed by a 16 games stretch in which only 3 of the 16 games were a loss by more than 1 goal. This is a great set up with Bruins off a tight divisional win and Philly off an ugly loss. Take advantage and grab the puck line here at a reasonable price. PHILADELPHIA +1.5 -150 |
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03-16-24 | Wisconsin v. Purdue -6 | Top | 76-75 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
Rotation #610: CBB Saturday Purdue Boilermakers -6 vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 1 ET - Live by the three, die by the three. Today is the day Wisconsin's Big Ten Tourney run dies. 3rd game in 3 days. The legs start to give out. That is very important in 3 point shooting. The Badgers have been ridiculous from three point land in each of their first two games in the tourney. Now they face a Purdue team that shut them down from downtown in each of their two meetings this season. I also like the fact that the Boilermakers faced a tough Spartans team yesterday. Gutting out a gutsy win over a Tom Izzo-coached team is never easy come tourney time. Keep in mind the Badgers played a struggling Maryland team and then Northwestern so far in this tourney. I know the Wildcats finished ahead of Michigan State this season in the Big Ten but when you factor in the Tom Izzo effect, the Boilers arguably faced the tougher match-up yesterday. Give credit to the Badgers for a solid run but I could see their 3-point shooting really drop off here (just like the regular season meetings) especially with some weary legs. The Boilers have a rest edge and they are fully focused on becoming the first team in 24 years to win both the Big Ten regular season title and Big Ten tourney in the same season. Look for big man Zach Edey to have another huge game and the fact their largest deficit was only 1 point and they led by as many as 12 points yesterday has led to value here considering they only won the game by 5 points. That is keeping this line a little low and I look for the Boilers to roll by double digits given all of the above. PURDUE -6 |
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03-15-24 | Colorado -1.5 v. Washington State | Top | 58-52 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Rotation #857: CBB Friday Colorado Buffaloes -1.5 -115 or money line -130 vs Washington State Cougars @ 10:30 ET in Pac-12 Tourney at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV - Love the line movement on this one. Colorado opened favored by about 2.5 then came down to 1.5 and now appears headed back up. First off, why were the Buffaloes favored in the first place even though Washington State is ranked and the Buffaloes are unranked? Exactly! Odds makers know! Why did the line come down? Sharps wanted to move it down! Why is it now going back up? Sharps took advantage of the lower number and the bigger bets are starting to come in. In addition to all these betting and market factors, I also like Colorado here because they are playing their best basketball of the season at the right time. The Buffaloes have won 7 straight games! The Cougars have two recent losses and they were to Pac-12 teams that finished the regular season with a combined 17-23 record in conference games! Colorado is the better team offensively including at the free throw line. That could be key in a projected tighter game. Though this game may indeed be tight I just do not see the Buffaloes being denied here. Colorado playing with such confidence right now. The Buffs were tested yesterday by a solid Utah team while the Cougars took advantage of facing an inconsistent Stanford team that ended up finishing their year on a 3-9 run. Don't let this line fool you. The Buffaloes are favored with good reasoning here as noted above. COLORADO -1.5 -115 or money line -130 |
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03-15-24 | Providence +5 v. Marquette | Top | 68-79 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Rotation #841: CBB Friday: Providence Friars +5 vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 8 ET in Big East Tourney at Madison Square Garden - The Friars are off a great win over Creighton yesterday after an easy win over a horrible Georgetown team Wednesday. Yes it is a 3rd game in 3 days for Providence but they do catch Marquette off an intense physical and emotional grinder of a win over Villanova yesterday that did require OT. That said, this one sets up well for an upset. Will grab the points here just in case but the Friars enter this game with a lot of confidence and they actually had 70 shots from the field yesterday compared to just 58 for the Bluejays. In other words, the win was not a fluke and they took great care of the ball as well and that had an edge in the turnover department for the Friars as well. Providence has won 6 of 9 games and Marquette is at a disadvantage in the rebounding department also. Prior to yesterday's OT win over Villanova, the Golden Eagles were on a 6-6 run in games played away from home. Also, the only 2 wins that were blowout wins were against DePaul and Georgetown - the two worst teams in the Big East. The other 4 wins were by an average margin of 4.5 ppg an none of those wins by more than 6 points. Don't be surprised if this one goes to the wire and, though I expect an outright upset, we'll grab the points just in case the Friars fall a bucket or so short. PROVIDENCE +5 |
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03-14-24 | Utah v. Colorado -3.5 | Top | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
Rotation #782: CBB Thursday Colorado Buffaloes -3.5 vs Utah Utes @ 11:30 ET - Excellent line value here as the Buffaloes have won 6 in a row and have the rest edge here too as they have been off for a few days while the Utes were in action yesterday. Utah, prior to yesterday's win had lost 8 of 12 games and though they beat the Buffaloes by 5 earlier this season they also lost at Colorado by 24 in the rematch. This Buffs team playing with a lot of confidence right now and has all the key edges going in their favor here. Utah started the season 11-2 but then went 7-11 the rest of the way before this conference tourney. Colorado, on the other hand, has won 11 of 15 games since starting the season 11-5. Two teams that truly have been trending in opposite directions. Also, the Buffaloes finally got the much needed confidence boost by winning some road games. They needed that and this will also help them in his neutral site game in Vegas. COLORADO -3.5 |
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03-14-24 | Knicks v. Blazers +10.5 | Top | 105-93 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Thursday Portland Trail Blazers +10.5 vs New York Knicks @ 10 ET - Of course the Knicks should win this game SU but I don't see them winning this in a complete blowout. This is their first game on this west coast swing after playing 4 straight home games. Also, the tougher games on this road trip are up next with facing the Kings, Warriors and Nuggets. I just can't see New York being too excited nor too focused on facing this Blazers team they already beat handily two months ago in New York! That said, this spot could be a bit tricky for the Knicks. The Trail Blazers have gone 4-4 SU L8 games. Granted, the wins were against teams that are not on the level of this New York team. However, just getting some SU wins is a confidence boost for a Blazers team having a tough season. Also, some of the players they are missing are close to coming back as well. That is also a positive in terms of creating good vibes and positive energy for the team. I look for them to put up a strong fight on their home floor here and this game will be decided by single digits. PORTLAND +10.5 |
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03-14-24 | Boston College v. Virginia -4.5 | Top | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Rotation #734: CBB Thursday Virginia Cavaliers -4.5 vs Boston College Eagles @ 9:30 ET - Eagles playing for 3rd straight night. Virginia has huge rest edge. Cavaliers won the first meeting even though it was at Boston College. Now this neutral site game in the tourney (in DC) truly is a location that favors the Cavs. They have stellar defense and did score 72 points in 2 of their last 3 games so it gives them some added confidence on the offensive end. On the defensive end there is no shortage of confidence for this tough Cavaliers team. Look for them to use that tenacious defense to pull away as this game goes on and they wear down a tired Eagles team playing a 3rd straight day. The revenge angle for BC that many in the market will buy into is helping to keep this line lower than it should be. We take advantage! VIRGINIA -4.5 |
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03-14-24 | St. John's v. Seton Hall +4.5 | Top | 91-72 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
Rotation #746: CBB Thursday Seton Hall Pirates +4.5 @ St John's Red Storm @ 2:30 ET - I know many might look at this and say it is a home game for St John's and it is true that the Red Storm do play home games at Madison Square Garden too. However, Seton Hall is from the NYC metro area as well and MSG is essentially right between the campuses of these two schools. Also, the Pirates won both regular season meetings so many people will be looking at the double revenge factor as well. The result of all this in my opinion is that St John's is getting too much support in the betting markets and we are getting plenty of value here on the underdog side catching 4.5 points! It is true that the Red Storm wrapped up the season winning 5 in a row. However, 3 of the 5 wins were against the 2 Big East teams that finished the season with a combined 2-38 record in the Big East. I am not saying St John's is a bad team or that Seton Hall is an elite team. I am just saying that these teams are close to equal in my opinion and I would say the Pirates are the slightly better team. The Red Storm are simply over-rated here and I look for the underdogs to make it a rare 3-0 season sweep over St John's but we will grab the points just in case. SETON HALL +4.5 |
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03-13-24 | Xavier -1.5 v. Butler | Top | 76-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
Rotation #679: CBB Wednesday Xavier Musketeers -1.5 vs Butler Bulldogs @ 4 ET - This line is around a 1.5 and I like the Musketeers to respond in this opportunity at right back revenge. They just lost at Butler in the Bulldogs regular season finale and Xavier can get the best kind of payback right here in the Big East Tourney! Also, the Musketeers did win the first game when the teams met in Cincinnati and that was their 2nd straight win in this series. They bounce back here after the loss at Butler. The Musketeers dominated the glass in both meetings this season and they will cut down on their turnovers here in the rematch of the last season 6-point loss. Also, Xavier does a better job of getting to the free throw line than the Bulldogs. In a potentially tight contest I want the better rebounding team, that also thrives on getting to the rack and creating contact to get to the FT line, and that also has revenge on their minds. Great set up here to lay a short number! XAVIER -1.5 |
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03-12-24 | Sharks v. Flyers -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday: Philadelphia Flyers -1.5 -125 vs San Jose Sharks @ 7 ET - Flyers are off a horrible 7-0 loss and now hosting one of the worst teams in the league. This is a great bounce back spot and Philly is angry and coach Tortorella was so angry about all the power plays conceded in the 7-0 loss that the was ejected when the game was 4-0 and now serving a suspension. This angry Flyers team, as well as goalie Ersson (who had been hot) will be ready to respond here. The Sharks are off a win but this was preceded by 9 straight losses by an average margin of 2.5 goals. Flyers most recent win was by 1 goal but this followed 8 of last 10 wins by 2 or more goals. Philadelphia -1.5 -125 |
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03-12-24 | Napoli +0.5 v. Barcelona FC | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Rotation #224217: Champions League | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg: Tuesday Napoli +0.5 goal line +115 @ Barcelona @ 4 ET - Barcelona is on their home pitch and they are expected to be strong here but that has resulted in them being overvalued in this spot. Keep in mind, this one is 1-1 on the aggregate and Napoli is now much stronger than when they met about 3 weeks ago. That meeting was right after a managerial change. Napoli has been a different club ever since and appears rejuvenated. Keep in mind a 1-1 final here again - with the match then decided after the 90 minutes plus injury time - certainly is possible. Napoli just has not been conceding much at all and, in comparison with Barcelona, they are the much healthier team entering this one. Battling for a 1-1 draw on the road that extends their chances into AET (added extra time) in a match decided after 120 minutes would not surprise me in the least. That said, I like the plus plus option here with Napoli on the goal line at plus half a goal and plus money. Napoli has allowed 1 goal or less in 11 of last 12 matches and Barcelona has allowed goals in 10 of last 11 matches outside of La Liga action. In fact they have allowed an average of 1.8 goals in those 10 matches. This is tough competition for Barcelona and this one likely a draw or possibly even an upset win. Grab the dog value. NAPOLI +0.5 goal line +105 |
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03-11-24 | Stony Brook v. Hofstra -7 | Top | 63-59 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
Rotation #854 CBB Monday Hofstra Pride -7 vs Stony Brook Seawolves @ 8:30 ET - The Seawolves had to rally multiple times yesterday in an amazing double OT win over Drexel. Not only will this be the 3rd game in 3 days for Stony Brook, their top 5 scorers in yesterday's game scored 87 of their 91 points. Those 5 players averaged 39.4 minutes played. That means you have the guys that scored 96% of their points yesterday and are playing their 3rd game in 3rd days AVERAGED playing a FULL GAME of 40 minutes yesterday. This is a fantastic setup for the more rested Pride team to dominate. Hofstra has won 12 of 15 games and each of their last 6 wins have been by a double digit margin. The Pride did have 4 guys play heavy minutes in yesterday's game but that was their first game in more than a week and they will definitely have the fresher legs here. They pull away as this game goes in and it make it a 7th straight win by a double digit margin. Lay it! HOFSTRA -7 |
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03-10-24 | Stony Brook v. Drexel -3.5 | Top | 91-88 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
Rotation #822: CBB Sunday Drexel Dragons -3.5 vs Stony Brook Seawolves @ 6 ET - Stony Brook had to play yesterday so this is a big scheduling edge for Drexel as they have been off for a week. Also, the Dragons have won 20 games this season. Compare that to the Northeastern team that the Seawolves beat yesterday - that team now has 20 losses this season. Also, Stony Brook was 20 of 22 from the FT line while Northeastern was 12 of 21 from the FT line. That was the difference in the game which is not saying a whole helluva lot about the Seawolves. This Dragons team has veteran leadership and a deep rotation and they will take advantage of facing Stony Brook in a B2B. Yes this is a neutral site game in DC but this is a bargain line that has moved down on the favorite and I am happy to take advantage of this Dragons team is the stronger team and will advance to the next round of the CAA tourney. They take advantage of having had a double bye heading into this one. DREXEL -3.5 |
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03-10-24 | Burnley v. West Ham United -0.75 | Top | 2-2 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
Rotation #200110: English Premier League Sunday West Ham United Goal Line vs Burnley @ 10 AM ET - Burnley is now in the cellar of the 20-club Premier League after Sheffield United moved out of the basement via a 2-2 draw yesterday. Unlike Sheffield United, Burnley has shown no signs of goal-scoring life of late. Burnley has lost 3 straight matches by a combined score of 10 to 0 and overall has been outscored 13 to 1 in losing 4 straight matches. The most concerning aspect is the last two defeats have come against clubs that only have a combined 7 wins in 55 EPL matches this season! Indeed, Burnley in horrific form right now and getting ready to take on a West Ham club that is threatening for a Top Six finish in the league! Also, West Ham is off B2B wins in EPL action by a combined score of 7 to 3. West Ham undefeated the last 5 meetings between these clubs and won 3 of those and the way they are scoring goals (and Burnley is not) of late, this looks like a home blowout. West Ham United Goal Line |
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03-09-24 | San Diego v. Santa Clara -11.5 | Top | 79-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
Rotation #774: CBB Saturday Santa Clara Broncos -11.5 vs San Diego Toreros @ 10 ET - Won here with San Diego yesterday but that was more of a play against Pepperdine than a play on the Toreros. The fact is that San Diego won ugly but they will struggle to win ugly here. The Toreros face a Broncos team that has the huge rest edge plus Santa Clara dominated them on the glass in the regular season meetings. The Broncos just have too much and the Toreros will not be able to keep up as the rebounding edge plus points in the paint edge as well as turnover differential should all go in favor of the rested Broncos in this one. I don't often lay big points in hoops or football but sometimes a double digit favorite is screaming for a bet and this is one of those. All the edges belong to the Broncos and they pull away as this game goes on. Lay it! SANTA CLARA -11.5 |
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03-09-24 | Creighton v. Villanova +1.5 | Top | 69-67 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Rotation #638: CBB Saturday Villanova Wildcats +1.5 vs Creighton Bluejays @ 2:30 ET - Creighton is a tough team but, for years (and this season is no different) they are much tougher at home than on the road. Now they face a Villanova team that has been playing great defense and is desperate for a win after a road loss at Seton Hall. Back home where they have been playing particularly well, I don't see the Wildcats being denied here. I know the Bluejays have revenge from a home loss to Nova earlier this season but the Cats are still going to prove to be the hungrier team here as their chances at getting into the Big Dance are truly dependent on winning this game. Another key is the defensive play for sure as Villanova, other than a loss at #1 UConn, has allowed only 56 points per game in their other 8 games since the end of January! Creighton is allowing 73.6 points per game since late January. Yes, the Bluejays are the better team offensively but defense and home court matters a lot in this match-up and Creighton is known for struggling with their shooting away from home and this Wildcats team has been playing solid perimeter defense as well. The desperate home club gets it done in this one! VILLANOVA +1.5 |
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03-08-24 | Pepperdine v. San Diego +3 | Top | 52-57 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
Rotation #892: CBB Friday WCC Tourney San Diego Toreros +3 vs Pepperdine Waves @ 9 ET in Las Vegas - The Waves just blasted hapless Pacific last night. Not only is this a B2B spot for Pepperdine but they are just 1-5 SU the last 6 times they are off a win in which they allowed 63 points or less. Note that Lorenzo Romar is out as coach after this season for Pepperdine. Last night they faced a Pacific team that was also without its head coach (and was already released from the program) and so the Tigers used an associate head coach. It was a disaster for Pacific and it looked like they did not know what they were doing and they did not even challenge things defensively. It was an embarrassment. So the Waves now going from facing a Pacific team that was 0-16 in WCC action this season and did not even want to be in the tournament (apparently) to now facing a San Diego team that will come to play here. This will be Romar's final game in my opinion. He enjoyed the demolition last night but now reality sets back in. San Diego is not a great team but they are solid and the Toreros won 7 of their last 11 games. 3 of those 4 losses were against 3 of the top teams in the conference. Certainly Pepperdine does not fall into that category. That said, take advantage of the line value being offered here as the Waves won 102 to 43 last night and that has inflated this line. SAN DIEGO +3 |
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03-07-24 | Colorado +3 v. Oregon | Top | 79-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Rotation #751: College Basketball Thursday Colorado Buffaloes +3 @ Oregon Ducks @ 9 ET - This line opened up at a pick'em and now the Ducks, unsurprisingly, are all the way up to a 3 point favorite. For one thing, the Buffaloes might have Cody Williams and Julian Hammond back for this one. Additionally, even if they do not, Colorado has been winning without Hammond the last 3 games and Williams the last 2 games. They have won 4 straight games and have plenty of momentum here. I know about the home/road difference for the Buffaloes but so do the oddsmakers and this line was set this way for a reason! Now we get exceptional value after the line move. Note that Jermaine Couisnard just scored 39 for the Ducks but Oregon still lost by 20. Yes that was against Arizona but it still says a lot about this team. When the Ducks faced Colorado earlier this season Couisnard had only 11 points and the Ducks lost by 16 points! The point is that the Buffaloes, even though on the road for this rematch, have proven they match up well with this Ducks team. Additionally, Colorado has won 2 of last 5 road games including most recent one so they are starting to get a little confidence going even when traveling. The overall 4-game winning streak also helps in that regard. The Ducks loss at Colorado started an overall slide for them that they have really not bounced back from. Oregon started this season 13-3 and, ever since, has a record of 6-7. Also, the Ducks have only split (2-2) in their last 4 home games. Grab the road dog in this one! COLORADO +3 |
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03-06-24 | Villanova +1.5 v. Seton Hall | Top | 56-66 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Rotation #671: CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats +1.5 @ Seton Hall Pirates @ 6:30 ET - The Wildcats are off a win at Providence and are playing their best basketball of the season. Their defense has been fantastic. Villanova has won 5 of 6 games and, other than a loss at #1 ranked UConn, has allowed only 55 points per game in their other 7 games since then end of January. They blasted Seton Hall in that stretch so, of course, the Pirates want revenge. However, the Wildcats had great defense from Moore on the top player for Seton Hall and I expect a repeat of that here. Moore is known for his defense and he seems much healthier now than he was early this season. Also, the team as a whole is playing their best D of the season. The Pirates are at home here but are only 3-2 SU L5 home games and 2 of the wins were against the Hoyas and Blue Demons. Note that Georgetown and DePaul are a combined 2-36 SU in Big East action this season. Don't get me wrong, Seton Hall is a solid club but this game Wednesday is huge in terms of Big Dance scenarios for each of these teams and I am backing the team playing better defense that also has some match-up edges. Those match-up edges are so important in basketball. Seton Hall has allowed about 75 ppg their last 7 games. Even if you take out the B2B bad losses to Creighton and UConn, the Pirates have allowed 69 ppg their other 5 games since the end of January. We are into March and it is the time of year when defense is a key to making a big run. Tourney time is not quite yet here for the major conferences but it already feels like it is here and that will be the type of pressure involved in this game. That said, give me the better defense and the team with more confidence entering this match-up based on recent results. This one is all Wildcats. VILLANOVA +1.5 |
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03-05-24 | Detroit v. Wisc-Milwaukee -11.5 | Top | 79-83 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
Rotation #666: CBB Horizon League Tourney Tuesday Milwaukee Panthers -11.5 vs Detroit Titans @ 8 ET - Detroit is getting a little attention in the marketplace and I get it. It is a new opportunity for the Titans after a disgusting 1-30 season. Also, they are off a tight loss to Oakland and the Golden Grizzlies are the top team in the Horizon. However, Oakland had already wrapped up the Horizon League regular season title so they were very lax defensively in that game. Detroit took advantage and shot uncharacteristically well. Now Detroit faces a fired up team in Milwaukee and the Panthers will be intense defensively. The Panthers averaged scoring about 84 ppg when at home this season and the Titans averaged only about 65 ppg when on the road this season. Don't be surprised when the hosts win this by 20+ points! They have the talent edge, the defensive edge, the rebounding edge and home court as well. Before that road loss by just 5 points to Oakland, 14 of last 18 road defeats for Detroit came by at least a dozen points! The Panthers wrapped up the regular season on a 5-1 run and blasted Green Bay 90-69 in their season finale. They carry that moment right into this game. MILWAUKEE -11.5 |
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03-04-24 | Queens NC v. Florida Gulf Coast -4 | Top | 69-63 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Rotation #306662: ASUN Tourney CBB Monday: Florida Gulf Coast Eagles -4 vs Queens University Royals @ 7 ET - This is a conference tournament where the team with the better record gets it on their home court. But I am going to start with talking about road games. The reason is because you can oftentimes tell the better team by how they perform on the road. In this case, on the surface, you have two very evenly matched teams by looking at records. But if you look at how the Eagles performed on the road (including in losses!) compared to how the Royals performed on the road, you will see that Florida Gulf Coast was the stronger team on the road. Not only that, as noted above, now Queens University has to go on the road for this one while the Eagles are on their home floor. It all adds up to solid line value here as Florida Gulf Coast should take this by 5 or more points. The Eagles last 8 home games, and 11 of 13 this season, all were decided by a margin of 5 or more points. I also like the fact that FGC started 3-9 this season but then went 11-8 the rest of the way. Conversely, Queens started the season 6-5 but have since gone 7-13 the rest of the way. Also, 14 of the Royals 18 losses were by 6 or more points this season. While Queens just became division 1 in the summer of 2022, the Eagles have been Division 1 for more than dozen years and have been to the Big Dance 3 times. I like the home team for all the reasons noted above and I also like them for their better defensive play including key hustle stats like steals and blocks in their most recent match-up. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles -4 |
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03-03-24 | Stanford v. Colorado -13 | Top | 71-81 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
Rotation #852: CBB Sunday Colorado Buffaloes -13 vs Stanford Cardinal @ 9 ET - Colorado has been rolling offensively heading into this game and they are 15-1 SU at home this season. Stanford enters this game off 5 straight losses and with the Cardinal offense quite sluggish. The Cardinal just will not be able to keep up here. The Buffaloes know they are on the bubble and this is also their final home game of the season. You know that kind of effort that will result in for Colorado ... it will absolutely be an intense effort from the hosts here and they pull away for a win by about 20. One of Stanford's better shooters dealing with a wrist injury so that is not helping matters either as the Cardinal slide toward an ugly finish to the season. Not including OT points of course, the Buffaloes have averaged 83 ppg last 3 games - all wins. The Cardinal have averaged just 66 points in their last 5 games - all losses. I do not normally lay big points but this one is screaming blowout rout! Lay it! COLORADO -13 |
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03-02-24 | Gonzaga +2.5 v. St. Mary's | Top | 70-57 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
Rotation #801: CBB Saturday Gonzaga Bulldogs +2.5 @ St Mary's Gaels @ 10 ET - The Gaels already wrapped up the #1 seed for the WCC Tourney that is coming up. They should also have locked up a spot in the NCAA Tourney as well. That said, this game is not nearly as important to St Mary's as it is to Gonzaga. The Bulldogs have not been quite as strong as they usually are but they still showed what they can do in their most recent game with a blowout win courtesy of a huge 2nd half and that was on the road also. Now here they are out for revenge after losing at home 64-62 to the Gaels earlier this season. One of the big keys that night for St Mary's was Joshua Jefferson as he had 25% of their points with 16 points plus had 11 rebounds. He is now out for the season. Further limiting their depth in the paint is 7-footer Harry Wessels is out. The Bulldogs will take advantage here in the paint and they have big-time scorers all over the floor. Yes, the Gaels will try to slow them down but this game belongs to Gonzaga. I love the fact moved from the Bulldogs being a small favorite to now being an underdog of more than a bucket. There is a reason the line was originally set the way it was and the Bulldogs are all set for revenge here. GONZAGA +2.5 |
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03-02-24 | Nuggets v. Lakers | Top | 124-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Saturday Denver Nuggets Pick -110 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:40 ET - The Lakers have been playing well at home this season including 4 straight wins. However, the Nuggets have won 5 straight overall and are the much stronger team in this match-up. They just beat Miami in most recent game even though Murray was only able to play 14 minutes. Even if he does not play tonight I still like Denver in this spot. But don't be surprised if he does suit up for facing the Lakers here. The Nuggets have 3 straight wins over solid teams in their 5-game run. Although the Lakers have won 4 straight at home, the last 3 wins were against the Wizards, Pistons and Spurs. Those are the 3 worst teams in the NBA with a combined record of 30-149 on the season! Now they face a 40-19 Denver team that is one of the top teams in the NBA and the defending champs. The Nuggets have beaten the Lakers 3 straight time and in both match-ups this season and now they make it 4 in a row and get the season 3-game sweep over this over-rated LA bunch. DENVER Pick -110 |
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03-02-24 | Virginia +9.5 v. Duke | Top | 48-73 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
Rotation #733: CBB Saturday Virginia Cavaliers (+) @ Duke Blue Devils @ 6 ET - This is a revenge spot for Virginia. The last time they met Duke it was not just any game, it was the ACC Championship Game last March. They lost the game by 10 but it was a 4-point game with under a minute to go. The Cavaliers had a rough shooting effort in that game and that was the difference but they proved once again that they are capable of slowing down the Blue Devils offensive production. Duke comes into this one hot but look at what they have done against other strong ACC teams, like Virginia, this season. The Blue Devils lost to North Carolina, they went 1-1 against Wake Forest (and the win was by 8 points) and they did beat Clemson but only by 1 point. They did crush Syracuse but split against Pitt including losing here at home to the Panthers. This Cavaliers team has not forgotten the ACC Final from a year ago and they play solid defense and the offense, led by playmaker Reece Beekman, looked really strong earlier this week in winning on the road at Boston College. Don't be surprised if this one goes to the wire and I feel we have exceptional value here with such a strong defense getting huge points in this revenge match. Remember too that North Carolina already beat Duke this season and that is the same UNC team that Virginia lost too by 10 but trailed by only 5 with under a minute to go. I just feel this line is absolutely inflated when you consider the Blue Devils performance against solid ACC teams this season. VIRGINIA (+) |
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03-02-24 | Villanova +2.5 v. Providence | Top | 71-60 | Win | 100 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
Rotation #601: CBB Saturday Villanova Wildcats +2.5 @ Providence Friars @ Noon ET - This one has made a big move toward Providence as Villanova opened as the small favorite here. I understand the move because the Friars have the home court edge here but also feel the odds makers had this one right. The Wildcats have been playing great defense. Other than a loss to a UConn team that is one of the best teams in the nation, Nova has allowed only 54 ppg in their other 6 games since the beginning of February. Villanova won 5 of those 6 games. They'll win this one too! Providence has lost 4 of last 8 games and allowed 77 points per game in their last 6 games since losing 68 to 50 at Villanova. Grab the better defense and the points here in a key game for Big Dance hopes. VILLANOVA +2.5 |
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02-29-24 | Gonzaga -3.5 v. San Francisco | Top | 86-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
Rotation #843: CBB Thursday Gonzaga Bulldogs -3.5 @ San Francisco Dons @ 11 PM ET - Unless I missed something, Gonzaga has now beaten San Francisco 28 games in a row in regular season and WCC Tourney action combined. February of 2012 is the last time the Dons knocked off the Bulldogs! Yes, second-placed Gonzaga has season finale with first-placed St Mary's (14-0 in WCC) on deck but this game against 3rd placed San Francisco is more important! Wait a second...how can that be? Well the Bulldogs are not going to catch the Gaels for 1st place in the division but they could lose out on 2nd place to the Dons should they lose this game! Also, of those 28 consecutive wins, only ONE was by less than FOUR points and the current line on this game is 3.5 points. Yes, San Francisco has had a great season but they have 3 losses in the WCC but guess who beat them? St Mary's TWICE and Gonzaga ONCE already this season. The point is that the Dons have not yet proven they can beat the best of the best in this conference! That said, I am happy to put these streaks to the test because the Bulldogs are also on the road here which will help insure the proper focus. They need this game. They know they slip into a tie with the Dons in the WCC should they lose this game. I also like the fact this line opened up in the -5 range but has dropped since then. Lay the short number and know you are taking a team that has absolutely dominated this series for a dozen years! GONZAGA -3.5 |
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02-28-24 | Virginia +1.5 v. Boston College | Top | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Rotation #747 CBB Wednesday Virginia Cavaliers +1.5 @ Boston College Eagles @ 9 ET - The Cavaliers enter this game off B2B losses. Virginia's most recent road game was a disaster at Virginia Tech as the Hokies took that one by a 75-41 final! Those are the kind of losses you don't forget and this is the Cavs first opportunity on the road since that ugly loss in Blacksburg. The Cavaliers enter this one off B2B losses and that is is certainly noteworthy as they have not lost 3 straight games in 3 years! Virginia is on a 5-0 / 100% PERFECT RUN the last 5 times they have entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games since that instance in Feb of 2021. You know Tony Bennett is going to have his guys ready for this game and we get line value because it is at Chestnut Hill. Yes, Boston College is solid at home but they have also lost to stronger ACC teams here and Virginia is one of the top teams in this conference. Also, the Cavs lost their most recent visit here so they want payback here. While the Eagles are the much stronger team offensively, the defense of Virginia is one of the best in the nation year in and year out under Bennett. The low total posted on this game by the odds makers tells you they expect the same thing I do. That is the fact that Virginia will be able to control the tempo here. If the Cavs get that type of low-scoring game they want they come out on top more often than not. Look for that to be the case again here as they bounce back off rare B2B losing games to take that aforementioned multi-year run to a perfect 6-0! VIRGINIA +1.5 |
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02-27-24 | Pittsburgh +7.5 v. Clemson | Top | 62-69 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
Rotation #631: Tuesday 10* Pittsburgh Panthers (+) @ Clemson Tigers @ 7 ET - Though the Panthers are off a win, they lost their prior road game badly so they will be looking to make up for that here. Also, prior to that road loss, they were on a 6-2 SU run in road games. Also, the Tigers are off a home win versus Florida State but were just 3-4 SU prior to this in their 7 most recent home games. The point is that home court is always baked into the lines but, in this case, neither one of these teams has met the traditional home/road dichotomy factors. So we get a little extra value here with the big points available for Pittsburgh. Also the Panthers lost at home to Pittsburgh earlier this season so this is a revenge game for Pitt as well. This is a huge game in terms of the Big Dance hopes for each and I am looking for a very tight game decided by a slim margin. Possible Panthers upset here given their road success this year so having the big points - currently 7.5 as of 7 hours before tipoff is certainly a huge value as well. The Panthers are the better team defensively and they will be fired up after losing their most recent road game by 33 points at Wake Forest. Good teams don't forget defeats like that and this Pitt team is strong. Their other two road losses before that were by an average margin of just 6 points apiece. PITTSBURGH (+) |
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02-26-24 | Heat v. Kings -7 | Top | 121-110 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Monday Sacramento Kings (-) vs Miami Heat @ 10:10 ET - This is a revenge game for the Kings after they lost at Miami 115 to 106 on the final day of January. In that game, Butler and Richardson scored nearly half the points (55) and neither are playing tonight. Also, two other starters - Herro and Rozier - are questionable tonight. Herro had 14 points (plus 8 rebounds and 8 assists) and Rozier had 10 assists in that game. With a much more winnable game tomorrow at Portland and Butler coming back tomorrow, one has to wonder if the Heat might be very conservative with their injury situation here rest Herro and Rozier too. Even if those guys play they are for sure missing Butler and Richardson. I just don't think Miami has enough to hang around here despite the favorable scheduling situation. Yes the Heat have been off and Kings in a B2B after the big divisional win over the Clippers down in LA. However, prior to a 4 point loss in most recent game, 11 of last 12 Miami losses have come by 8 or more points! Those dozen losses by an average of 14 points! So unless you think the very short-handed Heat win this outright, is there really any value in the points? In this case the odds say no and I expect Kings to roll by double digits as they have just too much offense for Miami in this one. The number is currently as low as a 7 as of 16 hours before tipoff! SACRAMENTO (-) |
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02-26-24 | Baylor +2.5 v. TCU | Top | 62-54 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
Rotation #889: CBB Monday Baylor Bears (+) @ TCU Horned Frogs @ 9 ET - The road team has won each of the last 3 meetings. That includes a road win for the Frogs at Baylor in TRIPLE OT four weeks ago. The Bears are out for revenge here and they have won 3 in a row at TCU so being on the road for the rematch is not a big deal. These campuses are less than 100 miles apart. The Horned Frogs have lost 3 of 6 and the 3 wins have come against teams that are a combined 15-27 in Big 12 action this season. Baylor is off an OT loss to a Houston team that is one of the top teams in the country. The Bears are now off tough B2B losses but against tough teams and Baylor had won 5 of 6 prior to that. Also, 3 of those 5 wins were against teams that all are now at least .500 on the season in Big 12 action. In fact, those 3 teams are a combined 59-22 on the season overall. Those 3 wins TCU had were against teams with a combined overall record that is currently 41-40 on the season. I respect the Horned Frogs but love the road trending in these match-ups and the hunger of Baylor coming off that OT loss Saturday! TCU has home losses to Iowa State and Texas already this season and you can add this determined Bears squad to the list after this game goes final. But we will grab the available points - currently 2.5 as of 14 hours before tipoff - just in case though I do not expect to need them. BAYLOR (+) |
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02-25-24 | Maryland +2.5 v. Rutgers | Top | 63-46 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
Rotation#815: CBB Sunday Maryland Terrapins (+) @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Noon ET - This line opened up around a pick'em but is now up to as high as a 2.5 as of 4 and 1/2 hours before tipoff. Of course the markets are all over Rutgers here at home at the low number but why do you think this line was set near a pick'em? Were the odds makers unaware that the Scarlet Knights were at home for this game where they have been strong this season? Of course not! The point is that the odds makers look at this one the same way I do. Maryland is the better team even though they are behind them in the Big Ten standings. This is a revenge game and the Terps get payback for a horrific shooting effort from beyond the arc in the first meeting. Yes Rutgers has a solid defense but so do the Terrapins! Payback game in a chance to move up the Big Ten standings and leapfrog the Scarlet Knights. 10* MARYLAND (+) |
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02-24-24 | Villanova +12 v. Connecticut | Top | 54-78 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Rotation #769: College Basketball Saturday Villanova Wildcats (+) @ Connecticut Huskies @ 8 ET - As I mentioned in prior write-ups on the Wildcats, they have truly bought into improved defensive play and are doing key aspects of the game well like rebounding well and hustling and forcing turnovers. That, of course, does not mean they beat the #1 team in the nation and defending champion Huskies at Connecticut. But it does mean they hang around in this game and we get key line value here because this line is up near a DOZEN points but when these teams met at Villanova - a 1 point win for Huskies - UConn was a very small favorite. Now they are a little inflated here in my opinion because of coming off the loss. Keep in mind, the Huskies are off a loss which will have many thinking bounce back here but sometimes a team that is so use to winning does not respond as aggressively off a rare loss. After their other two losses this season the Huskies did win their next game each time but by an average of just 7.5 points as a victory margin. The Wildcats have allowed just 55 ppg in their last 5 games! That is not an accident folks, they really have emphasized defense and that won't stop here. Now, of course, the Huskies are a great team but they are over-valued here in a game that will be tight because the Wildcats will continue their tenacious D and they have older players that know how to rise to the occasion in a big game like this. They will not be intimidated. VILLANOVA (+) |
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02-24-24 | Virginia Tech v. Pittsburgh -2.5 | Top | 64-79 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
Rotation #718: College Basketball: Saturday Pittsburgh Panthers (-) vs Virginia Tech Hokies @ 5:30 ET - The Panthers are in a great spot here. Not only are they off that ugly loss at Wake Forest after winning 5 straight games and 7 of last 8, Pittsburgh also has revenge on their minds here for added motivation. While it may seem like a meaningless game from year ago it is not forgotten. The Panthers were 12-3 and in first place in the ACC at the time and Virginia Tech was just 5-10 but the Hokies got the victory that day. Now Pittsburgh can bounce back at home off the ugly loss plus get revenge for that defeat last year in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech is just 1-7 on the road this season. We get line value here with the Panthers because Wake Forest was on fire with their shooting when they blasted Pitt earlier this week. Take advantage of the value here. PITTSBURGH (-) |
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02-23-24 | Kent State v. Akron -7 | Top | 70-83 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
CBB Friday 10* Top Play Akron Zips (-) vs Kent State Golden Flashes @ 6 ET - These are nearby rivals and this is always a big game as a result. That said, you might think Kent State is the revenge play here because they lost the most recent meeting at home this season. However, last season Akron had lost its final regular season game (in OT) at Kent State and then also had their season end just a week later when the Golden Flashes knocked the Zips out of the conference tourney! In other words, Akron still views this match-up as including some unfinished business. Also, the Zips are coming off a loss at Toledo which makes this home game extra important in the battle that Akron is in with the Rockets - also playing tonight - for the top spot in the MAC! Kent State is only a .500 team this season and they are a game under .500 in the MAC. Akron is definitely the stronger team and the much better defense and they improve on their 11-2 MAC season record. The Zips have gone a PERFECT 4-0 off a loss ever since that early season 3-game losing streak. Not only that, Akron won all 4 of those games by double digits. Look for the Zips to take that run to 5-0 here with another double digit victory. This line, as of 8 hours before tipoff, is in the 7.5 range and is a strong value here. 10* AKRON (-) |
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02-22-24 | Ohio State +3.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 79-88 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Rotation #769: CBB Thursday Ohio State Buckeyes (+) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 8 ET - Off the upset of the Boilermakers, under normal circumstances, Ohio State should be faded here. However, this is anything but normal circumstances! The Buckeyes have had a down season and so they made a rare late-season coaching change. The assistant that took over here had already been at OSU for a few years plus is a long-time guy in terms of Ohio roots both for him and his entire family. The Buckeyes are showing they want to rally around this and are playing hard. There is a reason this line opened up low and then shot up to 4 but is already back to a 3.5 as of about 9 hours before tipoff. The sharps see the same thing I am seeing here too. The fact is the Golden Gophers had lost 6 of 9 before their win by double digits over Rutgers and now lets take a look at that victory. The Scarlet Knights actually had 13 more field goal attempts than Minny but they were done in by poor shooting that night while the Gophers were on fire both inside and outside the arc. Rutgers had more points in the paint plus the Golden Gophers had nearly twice as many turnovers. The point is that the box score proves it was a phony final. It is helping to give us some market value here as there was nothing phony about the Buckeyes win over Purdue! Love the fact that OSU had just 6 turnovers in that game too while the Boilermakers had 14. We get solid line value here as many will be playing Minny and the revenge angle here but this Buckeyes team is rejuvenated. OHIO STATE (+) |