(3 Unit Play Over) Michigan has been scoring a bunch of points on a consistent basis. The Wolverines have scored more than 90 points in every game of the NCAA Tournament thus far.

UConn is a good defensive team, but the Huskies do foul a lot. They are 307th in the nation in FTA/FGA. The Huskies are going to be fouling here down low. With Mara, Johnson, and the rest of the big guys the Wolverines are going to get offensive rebounds and shots from down low. Reed could end up in foul trouble here, and that badly hurts UConn's ability to slow down the Michigan big men.

UConn came out of their shooting slump a bit last game from long range. If they can get some offense out of Solo Ball here once again that will help immensely. Karaban is clearly capable of catching fire too.

Michigan's inside out style of play should really pressure UConn's defense. The Huskies are good defensively, but they aren't accustomed to facing teams with this kind of firepower.

We're on the over. 

(3 Unit Play Over) West Virginia has been playing quicker in this tournament than they have in the regular season.

Oklahoma has been consistently an over team. Oklahoma has played 21 straight games that have gone over this posted total. The Sooners are a very efficient offense, but they are weak on the defensive end.

This total is set very low and I like this to get past the over.

Take the over. 

(3 Unit Play Under) 

Illinois has raised their level of defensive intensity during this NCAA Tournament and are played exceptional on this end of the floor, holding its last three opponents to 55, 55 and 59 total points. UConn has had shooting woes while shooting just 29% from three point range in this NCAA Tournament with their big three shooters, Solo Ball, Braylon Mullings and Alex Karaban really in a shooting funk. 

I believe Illinois will have answers for Tarris Reed down low, and while he still might have a decent offensive game, it will be much more difficult for him than what we have seen up to this point. Reed will be such a force on the defensive end against Illinois and his rebounding ability should lessen the 2nd chance opportunities and offensive rebounding of the Illini. 

The pace is going to be slow, as Illinois is 296th in offensive operating tempo while Uconn is 320th. This is an excellent coaching matchup here and I think both teams want this game played in the 60's. Illinois keeps their opponents off the stripe better than anyone else in the country, and I think we avoid the heavy whistle here in this one. Fun game, that stays under the posted total. 

(3 Unit Play Under) The West Virginia Mountaineers are excellent at dictating the pace. West Virginia is a below average offensive team. They are 17th nationally in defensive efficiency. West VA is 363rd in the nation in overall tempo. 

Stanford is a below average tempo team. The Cardinal rely too much on one player on offense and can go through long scoring droughts.

This is a neutral site game and neither of these teams have played in a long time. 

We'll side with the under. 

(3 Unit Play Under) The Minnesota Golden Gophers aren't a high level Big Ten team, but they have been battle tested this year. I think the Minnesota coaching staff is far above average, and they are consistently having their team slow the pace down. I don't expect that to change just because they are in a postseason tournament here. 

Baylor has been inconsistent on pace and defense, but I think Minnesota can dictate the style of play enough here to keep this under the high posted total. This is a neutral site game as well which is a bonus.

Under. 

(3 Unit Play Under) Analysis coming 

(4 Unit Top Play Under)

We get a great coaching matchup here between Rick Pitino and Jon Scheyer. Duke has been operating low and slow in regards to tempo since Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba went out of the fold. Ngongba returned from injury and showed a little bit of rust, but I think his presence on the defensive end is felt here. 

I anticipate St. Johns will slow it down and be forced to operate out of the half court here. The desire of the Johnnies is to try to get the ball in the paint or at the rim, and this is going to be more difficult against Duke. SJU is not a great shooting team and Duke is going to force these guys into making jumpers in the mid-range, which should lead to longer offensive possessions and missed shots. 

We have an exceptional post-matchup between Zuby Ejiofor and Cameron Boozer in this one, and I think the Johnnies can force the ball out of Boozer's hands in the post. Duke is going to be forced to make some threes here and SJU has a solid outside defense. 

I think this is first-to-65 wins, and we expect a defensive game here. Under. 

(3 Unit Play Over) The Illinois Fighting Illini have been trading spots back and forth the last few weeks with Purdue for the most efficient offense in the country. Illinois is now second at 1.318 points per possession for the season. They have five tremendous scorers who can really spread the defense out.

VCU will push the tempo in this one, but they are likely to have a really hard time slowing down the Illini for a full 40 minutes. I would expect a lot of drives to the basket here by the Illini, and they are likely to have open kick outs to their shooters from long range.

Illinois isn't an excellent defense. VCU should get some transition opportunities with their quickness in the backcourt. 

The VCU team has many more outside shooters this season than they had in recent seasons.

We're on the over. 

3-unit play

UNCW has been in such an offensive funk the last two games of the season, and really struggled against Yale in the opener of the NIT tournament. The desire is to get the offense flowing through Patrick Wessler and this game is going to be such a battle between him and L-E'tang on the block. 

I expect this game to be played at a very low possession count, potentially 60 possessions. Dayton is a strong defensive team that does well to defend the painted area, so for Wilmington to generate a lot of offense Nolan Hodge and Noah Ross are going to have to hit outside jumpers. 

Dayton tries to force turnovers and get out and run in transition but that is going to be difficult against the guard-play of UNCW and I think we see a game played in the half court here. Dayton is 32nd nationally in defensive efficiency and should do well here despite being on the road. As long as we can avoid a heavy whistle from the referees this game should stay under the total. 

(3 Unit Play Under) UConn is 322nd in the nation in tempo. The Huskies are ninth in effective field goal percentage defense. The Huskies aren’t likely to push the pace here, and I do think their shot blockers down low will make things difficult for Cooper Bowser and the rest of the Paladins.

Furman is no longer a fast paced run and gun team. Bob Richey is a smart coach, and he knows his team doesn't have enough firepower to win NCAA Tournament games in the 80's like they did a few seasons ago.

The large spread games early in the NCAA Tournament have been good to under bettors. I think Furman slows this thing down even further and it stays lower scoring. I’ll back the under trusting Furman to have the right game plan here.

UConn wins and slows things down late, but Furman makes life difficult enough for the under to cash.

(4 Unit Top Play Under) 

Wright State is going to try to get to the rim here and the Raiders struggle badly at shooting three point shots effectively. I worry about how efficient the Raiders will be here against UVA who has an exquisite rim-protecting defense. Offensive rebounds are going to be hard to come by for Wright State here and I expect plenty of one and done possessions from the Raiders. 

UVA is going to score here but I do not foresee a pace that will be high enough for the Wahoo's to get into the high 80's in this one. Virginia has varied its pace this season but seemed comfortable in the slower pace games it saw in the ACC tournament and should match the Raiders tempo here, which will be slow. 

Wright State will struggle to find effective post touches and should very infrequently get to the foul line. Expect this one to be a slow burn, finishing under this posted total. 

3-unit play

Long Island is going to have no choice but to trim this game down to a crawl, but the Sharks are going to struggle to get the ball into the painted area and get good looks for their big men. The Sharks want to live in the mid-range and at the rim, and they are not going to be able to do that here against the Wildcats. These guys struggled all year in the NEC shooting the basketball and would routinely struggle to get to 65 points against NEC level competition. There will be very little 3-point shooting, and LIU is really going to struggle to score. 

The defense is solid, per NEC standards, and Rod Strickland is a good coach. I do not see Arizona having a lot of urgency in the fast break so we should get an honest game in the half court here. With a 2nd round matchup looming with either Nova or Utah State, I can see Arizona throttling back the tempo once up 20-25 points in the second half. Arizona is not reliant on the three and shoots them very infrequently. We should avoid a barrage of three point shooting here and the pace should be played at 65 possessions or less. Under. 

(4 Unit Top Play) 

Idaho is going to struggle badly here against Houston's length and athleticism while operating on the offensive end. The Vandals ran quite a bit in the Big Sky but its tempo against unfamiliar opponents in the non-conference portion of their schedule saw Idaho slow the pace down significantly and I think we see that here. 

Houston is going to live in the mid-range here and the Cougars have struggled shooting the ball all year. I dont know if we see the positive regression here but they have to start shooting it better if they want to make a deep run. 

We should see virtually zero fast break activity and this game should be played entirely in the half-court. Slow burning grinder, and an under. Idaho may not break 50.

(3 Unit Play Under) The North Dakota State Bison know they have to slow the pace down to a crawl here. They want no part of a track meet with Michigan State. North Dakota State is a rare Summit League team that is actually pretty good on the defensive end. They are 27th in defensive rebounding percentage nationally. Michigan State will beat them on the boards, but likely not quite as bad as they would many lower seeds.

North Dakota State likes to shoot the ball from long range, but this game is played in an under venue and North Dakota State will have an excellent Michigan State defense in their face throughout the contest.

Michigan State is 13th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are first in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. There won't be second chances for North Dakota State. 

A slower pace and a fairly big spread here should lead to this one staying below the posted total.

On the under in this one. 

(4 Unit Top Play) 

The Southland is known for wild swings and a ton of fouling in this game and I could anticipate seeing both here in this one. McNeese will not be intimidated with the athleticism of Vanderbilt but stylistically we could see a game where the points are plentiful. McNeese plays a high energy defense and will trap and press but Vandy should torch that approach and find driving opportunities in the painted area. I would expect that Vandy seeks to score early in the possession and the 'Dors should be able to finish around the rim whenever they want. 

McNeese will score some points here against Vandy, but they are going to have to be careful about crashing the glass in this one. The Cowboys are a great offensive rebounding team per southland standards, but if they send guys to get the offensive boards here Vandy will run out on them and score 25 points in transition. 

The Cowboys foul more than just about anybody in the country and we could see easy put back opportunities for Vandy here as McNeese is one of the worst teams in the country at allowing offensive rebounds. I expect Vandy to score at will here in this one, but McNeese will ramp up the tempo and they do have some guys who can score and get to the rim. This is an over game. 

(3 Unit Play) Clemson knows the way they have a chance in a game like this is to slow things down and win with their defense. The Tigers are 19th nationally in defensive efficiency. Clemson is 336th in average tempo. Brad Brownell's teams are consistently good at slowing the pace down and forcing opponents to play their style.

Duke is first nationally in defensive efficiency. The Blue Devils are elite on the defensive boards (7th) and when it comes to FTA/FGA allowed (2nd nationally). This team gets a lot of credit for their offense, but the defense is even better.

The first game between these two was a 67-54 game, and we think this one could fall in the lower 120's once again. 

A game in the halfcourt with two elite defenses. 

We'll take the under. 

(3 Unit Play) Low and Slow is what we should see here between these two. Davidson plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country and should really throttle it down here against the St. Joes defense which will make Davidson worth methodically on the offensive end. I expect many long possessions for the Wildcats and we have seen this group struggle shooting the ball while failing to break 70 points three games in a row. 

The first meeting between these two finished 62-56 and that was with a higher than expected amount of foul shots. These offenses are not typically ones that provoke trips to the stripe and I do not anticipate many foul shots in this one. SJU has been off a while and there might be a little rust to knock off before this offense finds its groove and I trust both of these defenses to keep the offenses working deep into the shot clock here. With average shooting percentages, this should stay under. 

(3 Unit Play) Virginia's defense has led the way to their tremendous season this year. The Cavs have two elite shot blockers patrolling the paint. Virginia Coach Ryan Odom is a good defensive mind, and this Virginia team is 6th in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Virginia is 261st in overall pace of play. The Cavs are good on the offensive glass, and that has created a lot of scoring opportunities for them this year. Miami is first in the ACC in defensive rebounding though.

Miami does not create free throw opportunities, so they'll have to be knocking down shots from the floor. On defense, Miami creates turnovers and Virginia does struggle on the offensive end with too many turnovers at times. 

Look for the under to come through in a tight game here.

3-unit play under

Georgetown has slowed the pace down considerably the second half of the season despite playing Xavier, St. Johns and Providence who all want to run on their opponents. The Hoyas are good at getting their opponents deep into the possession clock and making them work for everything on this end of the floor. Nova is deliberate on the offensive end so I do expect their possessions to be longer, and despite taking 44% of their shots from the outside, are not a strong shooting team from deep. 

We should see several empty possessions for the Wildcats here as they are a poor offensive rebounding team, and the defense should have success for Nova against Georgetown when the Hoyas have possessions. GT is one of the worst shooting teams in the Big East, and I do not foresee them getting efficient paint touches or trips to the line. The pace should be slow, the venue has been one that necessitates unders at a high rate, and I dont think GT scores enough here to trigger late game fouling at the end. Under. 

3-unit play

This game will look a lot different for Nevada compared to that of their first opponent, Air Force. Both of these teams are going to operate slowly in the half court and GCU possessions specifically should be long and methodical. I expect these two defenses to show up here as we have the number 1 and number 4 overall defenses in the MWC squaring off. 

The game between these two this season was 66-60 with an overtime session as Nevada did an excellent job blanketing shooters, and avoiding sending GCU to the stripe. Grand Canyon is excellent at defending without fouling and should keep this an honest game with limited foul opportunities, which will force Nevada to make open jumpers from the mid-range, something they are one of the worst in the MWC at doing. 

Important game, with a lot on the line. I expect the 2nd half to be played at a slower pace. We like under here. 

(3 Unit Play) I fully expect Loyola to struggle against this Richmond defense as they did in the most recent meeting a couple of weeks back. The Ramblers have the worst offense in the A-10 and have to slow the pace significantly in order to stay in this game. 

Richmond has slowed the pace and tempo the 2nd half of the season, and the Spiders are not an overly good shooting team. Neither one of these offenses can accumulate offensive rebounds and 2nd chance opportunities well, so this should be a game filled with missed shots and "one and done" possessions. Richmond should control the game and Loyola will not be close enough at the end to trigger late game fouling. Under. 

(3 Unit Play Under) The CAA title game is here. Hofstra and Monmouth square off in this one.

The trend has been heavy toward unders in the mid-major final games. Hofstra and Towson played very slowly in their overtime showdown last night. Even the Monmouth and Campbell game only had 67 possessions last night.

Both regular season games between these two teams stayed under the total. One of those games went under despite going into overtime. 

Monmouth has struggled at times with turnovers on offense. Hofstra settles for long range jumpers too often some times. 

A win or go home game between two solid teams. 

We'll go under the total. 

3-unit play

App State did a great job in the first meeting against Southern Miss and limited this opponent to just 27 first half points and 42 total points at the under 10-mark of the 2nd half. The Golden Eagles made just 21 total shots in the contest as one player on the team only, made a three point shot. I like a well-rested App State defense to show up here and be ready to go in a tournament where three of the conference favorites have already been knocked out. 

The Mountaineers play slower than anyone in the conference and one of the slowest operating tempos in the country, and I would imagine we see a slower pace for Southern Miss having played twice already. This is a quick turnaround and the wrong opponent to try to run on. 

Southern Miss does get to the line a lot, but App State has the 2nd best defensive free throw rate in the conference and I expect the Mountaineers to be in good defending position here. App State's primary three-point threat is Jalen Tot off the bench and he will throw up a ton of them. He has been a bit cooler in shooting of late here, and with this being a conference tournament game I would expect a little nerves from the App State shooter early on. 

This should be a slow burning grinder. 

3-unit play

This is a critically important game for both, although the Buckeyes have a much more defined path to the NCAA Tournament. All doubt gets removed if Ohio State picks up there 12th win in league play today and gets a head to head win over a fellow bubble foe. 

I like how Ohio State has played recently and the Buckeyes have been much better on the defensive end recently. This game should be played at a slow pace, 62-64 total possessions, and these teams are both going to be methodical on the offensive end. 

Expect long possessions, and contested jumpers. Both defenses rebound the ball well but Indiana on the road its last two games has scored 51 and 64 points and just is incapable of consistently hitting shots. Tayton Conerway hasnt been logging a ton of minutes lately and I think Ohio State can stop the effectiveness of Tucker DeVreis here. We are diving under.

3-unit play 

The first meeting between these two rivals saw the game tied at 55 after regulation, and I foresee this one being another defensive battle. This matchup sees the 7th and 2nd most efficient defense squaring off against one another and I do not think the Hokies will be able to nail the outside shot against the UVA defense, which ranks number one in the conference in successful outside shooting allowed. 

VT does not have a strong post presence that is going to control the game or get easy buckets at the rim against Virginia, so scoring the basketball could be an issue here. Neither team gets to the line frequently enough and Va Tech is excellent at defending without fouling. We should see long possessions, and very little second chance opportunities for the Hokies here. I think this total is about five points too high, we are on the under. 

3 unit play under

We have seen Miami of Ohio struggle on the road in conference play of late, relative to their high output expectations from prior. The Redhawks have slowed the tempo down a hair, and have not been as efficient, seeing their points per possession drop from 1.22 down to 1.07 in recent games. While it does not seem significant, this can make all the difference in a total, when a team is playing slower and is less efficient. The result here should be a game in the 70's, not the 80's. 

Miami has a lot of pressure on them tonight, and I would not be surprised at all if we see them start out slowly, maybe play a little tight. Aside from that, this defense has been very efficient and Ohio U cannot shoot the ball from deep. The Bobcats are one of the worst three-point shooting teams from deep in the entire country and worst in the MAC. 

Ohio needs to slow this tempo down, something we have seen in three of its last four games. I think we see the possessions matter late in this game, causing a slow down late, and I expect this one to finish under the posted total. 

3-unit play under

Omaha plays as slowly as anybody in the Summit league and historically in this tournament under head coach Chris Crutchfield, the opening round games involving Omaha in this venue have stayed comfortably under. 

These two split the regular season with both games trending hard to the under, with the 2nd game going over due to hot Coyote shooting and 58 combined free throw attempts. The Yotes will have the crowd on hand in Sioux Falls for this one and I expect these guys to give a spirited defensive effort against Omaha, who does have one of the least efficient offensive teams in this league. 

Neither team shoots particularly well from deep and both are poor in securing offensive rebounds or 2nd chance opportunities. We should see plenty of "one and done" possessions and I would expect significantly fewer foul shots than we saw from these two teams two weeks ago. Under

(3 Unit Play Under) 

Sacred Heart hs played better the 2nd half of the conference season but this team did find themselves in some defensive slogs down the stretch and I would anticipate its game against Merrimack looks a lot different than the one we saw them play last night. A game that had 63 points in the half with Iona exploded for the Pioneers and featured 108 2nd half points, but that is not a normal occurrence for Merrimack. 

The Warriors have the best defensive team in the conference and are excellent at controlling the pace of play. I expect Joe Gallo and this defense to be fully locked in here and get the game flow to be one they are comfortable with. 

Merrimack is tops in the MAAC in blocking or altering shots on defense, turnovers forced, steals accumulated, and they contest everything from deep. SHU wants to bomb away from deep and the Pioneers buried 13 of them last night, but this defense is going to be hard to get open looks on and I expect alot of front-end rim misses due to perhaps some tired legs after just having played last night. 

Merrimack operates at a slow tempo and this venue has been excellent for the under. I want to go low here. 

(4 Unit Top Play) High Point's coaching staff was very disappointed after their 112-87 win over Gardner Webb in the second regular season game. Flynn Cayman challenged his players in the locker room and spoke to the press about his disappointed in their defense. They came out and looked great on defense in their next game. I don't think High Point will look nearly as bad on defense this time around. The defensive intensity should be at a high level.

Gardner Webb has actually slowed their pace down some in recent weeks. This is an offense that should really be bothered by High Point's shot blocking led by Aquino. 

High Point isn't likely to want to run up the score as much when they know they have to win this tournament and save up their top players. 

This is such a high point total. We're going with the under. 

(3 Unit Play) Analysis soon

The Jacks do not have the same potent offense that we have come accustomed to seeing with South Dakota State, and they are shooting less three point shots and playing slower in league play. The defense has been better of late and does well to limit offensive rebounds and second chance opportunities. 

This offense has struggled against the Tommies who sport the 2nd best defense in this conference. UST has held SDSU in the 60's for point total twice including seeing just 12/49 three point shots made. I would expect we see a slower than expected pace and poor shooting from the Jacks in this matchup. 

The Jacks have allowed the 2nd fewest three point shots in the conference and SDSU has done well to defend and contest shots from the outside. In a matchup between the 2nd and 3rd most efficient defense in this conference, I think we see a game that stays under the total. 

(3 Unit Play) 

The Waves have completely revamped their style of play and the results have not only been significantly higher scoring games, but Pepperdine did win three of its last five games down the stretch. Styles Phipps and Aaron Clark have been much more aggressive at the rim and they are getting to the stripe more frequently. 

The lack of defensive intensity is evident, and Portland was able to shred the Waves by shooting 71% from inside the arc in their last meeting. I would imagine that these guys waste little time getting paint touches and working the inside/outside game with Joel Foxwell and Dante Censori-Hercules/ James ODonnell. 

Pepperdine is going to score here and we have seen their games elongated due to an extended "late game fouling" scenario, which could certainly play out here as well. I look for this one to go over this total. 

3- unit play-

LIU has the best defense in this conference and just had a recent meeting with Chicago State where the Sharks held these guys to 56 points. Chicago State has been in the mid-50s for points in both meetings and does have one of the worst shooting offenses in the country. 

LIU should be fully locked in here on defense and I expect the pace to be fairly slow in this NEC tournament game. LIU has the best three point defense in the conference and should have a lot of success defending the painted area here. I expect very little activity at the foul line for Chicago State in this matchup. 

LIU is not a great shooting team from deep and the Sharks do not shoot a lot of them. LIU has struggled with turnovers quite a bit this season and that should lead to some empty possessions, leading to an under. 

3- unit play- 

This is a matchup of two of the better defensive teams in the A10 and I think that Davidson will have success controlling the pace here in this game. The Wildcats are not as lethal from deep as they once were, and the three-point shooting has been hot and cold for them this year. St. Joes has a very stout three point defense so I expect every deep shot contested here in this game. 

Neither team gets to the strip frequently so there should be minimal points scored with the clock stopped. Saint Joes has been winning games recently with its defense and has seen five of its last six games stay under this total. We like the under tonight. 

3- unit play- write up coming soon.

(3 Unit Play) Northern Illinois has struggled so badly on the offensive end having failed to break 70 points in seven of its last 10 games overall. This is the worst shooting team in the MAC ranking dead last in three point shooting, foul shooting, and amount of shots that are blocked or altered. The Huskies cannot hold onto the basketball and routinely are forced into errant passes, shot clock violations, or other careless turnovers resulting in empty possessions. 

The Huskies have slowed down their tempo toward the end of the season and we should see Kent State play to NIU's pace here on the road. I would expect this game to be played south of 70 total possessions, slower than expected. 

Kent State has their own issues with turning the basketball over and this team has really struggled shooting the ball. The offense is not overly efficient and the offense has not been nearly as potent on the road. NIU is 16-2 to the under in league play and we expect that to continue here. 

(3 Unit Play) There is a pace war here on the surface but Hampton has been playing faster of late, and their games are complete foul fests night in and night out. I would expect upwards of 60 foul shots to be attempted here in this one as Hampton is the worst defense in the conference at sending its opponents to the foul line, while W&M is the best team offensively at getting to the stripe. 

Points with the clock stopped are a huge boost here, but Hampton had success in the first meeting offensively while burying 9 three point shots and scoring 77 points in r February road win. Every game for the Tribe has cleared this total since the February 5th meeting with Hampton and I expect a ton of points in the season finale for both teams. 

(3 Unit Play Under) The Gonzaga Bulldogs and St. Mary's Gaels have had a bunch of fantastic contests against each other in recent years. The strong trend on those games is for them to stay under the posted total. These teams know each other extremely well, and they are the two best defenses in an underrated WCC.

St. Mary's doesn't want a track meet against Gonzaga. Randy Bennett's teams have been great at dictating tempo in these matchups in the past. I don't see any reason why that won't be the case again here.

Gonzaga is really underrated on defense this year. The injuries they have now slow the offense, but the defense is even better. 

We'll side with the under. 

(4 Unit Top Play) The Pepperdine Waves are giving up nearly 1.2 points per possession in conference action. They have allowed 83 points or more in a stunning ten straight games. This defense appears to not even be putting in the effort anymore. Washington State shoots it well from the outside and they should have a bunch of open shots here.

Pepperdine has been shooting it well lately. Some of their backups have been getting more time lately, and they are spot up shooters. 

Neither team has much of anything to play for and that helps the cause for points in the final game of the regular season.

Over!

(3 Unit Over) The Wyoming Cowboys should take advantage of an Air Force Falcons defense that simply has fallen off in a huge way in recent weeks. Air Force is routinely giving up excellent shooting numbers to opponents. 

Wyoming has been happy to run when they have the lead against weaker teams. That should be the case in this one. Wyoming's defense has been struggling a lot lately, and Air Force can shoot the three ball.

On the over. 

(3 Unit Play Under) VCU is good offensively, but Fordham has been elite on defense in the last month. VCU's defense is better than many believe. 

Fordham is a bottom ten tempo team in the country. Fordham has been able to slow down the pace against everyone. They recently brought the pace down against VCU. I think they can do it again here.

This total is several points too high.

Take under. 

(3 Unit Play Under) The Rhode Island Rams and St. Joe's Hawks are both better on defense than offense. They have both slowed their pace down quite a bit from a year ago as well. This projects as the type of game where both teams go through some scoring droughts and keep it lower scoring.

St. Joe's shot the ball really well in their last game and that is propping this total up. I think they come back down to earth here. 

We'll take the under. 

(3 Unit Play Under) The Merrimack Warriors have played two straight games that went into overtime to send the game over the total. Merrimack is still the elite zone defense that causes matchup nightmares for opponents.

Canisius is 332nd in the nation in tempo. The Golden Griffins are 358th out of 365 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. This is the worst offense in the MAAC. I don't expect them to fare well against the Merrimack defense. They turn it over too much and they don't crash the offensive glass very well.

Merrimack both gets to the line and shoots the 3 ball a lot. Canisius is better on defense in those two areas than they are in most areas defensively. 

The pace here should be extremely slow. 

We'll go with the under. 

(3 Unit Play Over) 

Miami OH has had a few tougher road trips against UMass and EMU in recent weeks as the Redhawks continue its quest of finishing this season undefeated. This should be a spot where the offense gets whatever they want in the lane in squaring off against the worst defensive unit in the MAC. WMU cannot defend in the lane and should send Miami to the foul line a ton here in this one. 

Antwane Woolfolk and Brant Byers should have easy looks at the rim, and shooters will be open for Miami OH. The first matchup saw Miami win 87-76 and that was with poor shooting from Miami from deep. I expect Miami to be able to run here and for WMU to match the pace, which should see 75 possessions or more. 

WMU has shooters and this offense can be potent. I expect a higher scoring game 

(3 Unit Play) 

This is a game we recently saw where Jacksonville and Stetson played a 67-62 game that saw 63 total possessions and I think the pace will be similar here. The game had 51 total free throw attempts and the shooting was poor. Jacksonville actually has a decent ASUN defense and wants to see this game played at a snails pace. This group did a wonderful job of slowing down Austin Peay last time out and I think they control the pace here as well. 

Jacksonville has a decent three point defense and Stetson is going to jack up a ton of three point shots here in this one. This is an important game for the Hatters as Stetson can move into a tie for sixth in the league standings if its wins out, and I think we see them lean toward a more conservative game flow approach in this one. 

Neither team should see 70 total points in this one. Under. 

(3 Unit Play Over) 

Monmouth was surging earlier in the month but it has dropped back to back affairs against the top two teams in the conference and the Hawks need a win in a big way here. This battle will go a long way in both teams trying to secure a top-4 seed in the CAA tournament, and Monmouth has been dangerous offensively with Kavion McClain in the lineup. I think we see Monmouth get back to attacking at the rim, freeing up Andrew Ball and Jason Rivera-Torres for open three point shots. 

The first meeting saw 151 points combined even with poor shooting and I think we see both teams ramp up the urgency here. Stony Brook has scored in the 70's in back to back contests against slow moving Hampton and Drexel and I will be intrigued to see how they run tempo here against Monmouth who will seek to do the same. over game. 

(3 Unit Play Under) 

Maine has the fourth worst efficient offense in the country and the Black Bears routinely play at one of the slowest tempos around. Having Keelan Steele and Bashir N'Galang out of the mix has really stressed this offense and I think we could see that here in this matchup. 

Albany is not going to be in a hurry and the Great Danes have slowed the tempo down significantly the last month of the season. Three of its last five games have been played at 60 possessions and that is what we should see here as well. Albany wont get to the stripe much in this game and they only shot 8 foul shots in the first matchup. 

The first matchup played to 57 possessions and barely broke 100 total points and while I dont think we see that low a score here, this should trend under. 

(3 Unit Play Under) Charleston's defense has been superb of late. Charleston has held four straight opponents to 66 points or fewer. Charleston is now up against one of the weaker offenses in the league in Hampton. 

Hampton also slows things down and tries to keep the game in the halfcourt. The Pirates have gotten to the line a lot this year, but Charleston is first in the CAA in FTA/FGA allowed. 

An extra early start time is a bit of a benefit here too. The strange midweek early start time could be tough for the jump shooters.

Look for this one to stay under the total. 

3-unit play

Stylistically Pepperdine has completely changed the way it is playing, opting for a more up tempo scheme with absolutely zero defense being played. The Waves have given up a ton of points at the rim, and will not be able to keep Seattle off the stripe. 

In the first meeting we saw Seattle with an 83-81 win and that was with horrific shooting from outside, just 4/17 from three-point range. There were a combined 57 free throw attempts in that first meeting, and Pepperdine did well to knock down shots. The Waves are playing loose and I expect this game to be one where both teams are in the 70's.

Market agrees but has been late to adjust, and we like the over here. 

(4 Unit Top Play Under) The Atlantic Sun's top two teams will meet in Clarksville, Tennessee on Wednesday night. 

Austin Peay is the top ranked defense in the conference. Central Arkansas is the second ranked defense in terms of efficiency. 

Austin Peay has been aggressive going to the basket, and they are first in the league in FTA/FGA on offense. Central Arkansas has been the best defense in the league though when it comes to defending without fouling. They are also elite on the defensive boards.

Austin Peay is the top 3 point defense in the league, and they have been running teams off the 3 point line as well. Central Arkansas is reliant on that long range jumper. The Governors are likely to make it tough on them.

Neither of these teams get many second chance points. This is a game that means a ton to both teams. Austin Peay has won ten straight games. Central Arkansas has won 11 of their last 12.

Under the total!

(3 Unit Play Over)

Air Force has quit playing defense this season in the MWC and have surrendered 79 or more points in 10 straight games, 90+ the last four. San Jose State has been much more aggressive on the offensive end of late and have gone to a smaller lineup recently due to injury.

This matchup pits the two worst defenses in the MWC together and this is a chance for Air Force to not only bomb away from deep as it usually does, but potentially work the paint a bit and get some trips to the line. Both squads have been playing faster the last three weeks of the season, and we should see more possessions than the first meeting. 

The first meeting saw 39 combined foul shots and I would expect more of the same here with both teams shooting 25+ three-point shots each. The 2nd half of the first meeting saw 84 points, and I would expect these teams waste no time getting into what works against the other. Over. 

(3 Unit Play Over) 

Buffalo shot the ball very poorly in the last meeting and scored just 39 points with 10-minutes remaining in the 2H with Daniel Freitag out. He was at shootaround this morning and is questionable, but his offensive presence would be a big boost for the Bulls. 

Akron should shred Buffalo in the lane with Amani Lyles and Evan Mahaffey. The Zips are very good at moving without the ball and cutting in the paint and should approach 50 points in the paint here in this one. Buffalo has a very poor interior defense so expect Akron finishes at or close to the rim alot in this one. 

Akron's defense has been stout in MAC play this season but did get caught out of position a bit against Ball State who buried 13 three point shots against the Zips. Expect Buffalo to let it fly from deep with some makes, and quick run outs on the other end for Akron off long rebounds. This is an over game. 

(3 Unit Play Under) The Drexel Dragons are both the best defense in the CAA and the slowest paced team. Towson prefers to move slowly too. Towson is 343rd out of 365 in the country in overall tempo. 

These two teams are 308th and 305th in the nation in FTA/FGA on offense. There aren't likely to be many free throws in this game. 

These two teams are 30th and 105th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. 

The first meeting between these two was 59-58. This is likely a bit higher than the first one, but the line move up in the total has given us some extra value on the under.

Back the under here. 

(3 Unit Play Over) St. Bonaventure is a completely different team from what they have been in recent years. This is one of the best offenses in the Atlantic 10 in terms of efficiency, and they are one of the worst defenses in the league. Mark Schmidt's team is usually known for defense, but this version is not like the others.

Richmond is a weak defense as well, and the Spiders are playing relatively quickly on the offensive end. 

Both of these teams have had disappointing seasons compared to expectations, and this is a late season game where the motivation levels might not be terribly high.

We're on the over. 

(3 Unit Play Under) The South Alabama Jaguars force a ton of 3 point jumpers. In fact, they force the opposition to shoot more three pointers than any other team in the country. South Alabama's zone is extended out and it should bother Troy. Troy is a good team, but the Trojans are just 10th in the Sun Belt in 3 point percentage on offense.

Troy's defense is very good, and the South Alabama offense can go through extended scoring droughts. 

These two teams have had very low scoring games against each other in their recent history. This matchup has brought very slow tempo games and defensive intensity has been high.

Under the total. 

3-unit play

Hampton has been shorthanded of late and the offense has been really bad on the road. Leading scorer Michael Eley and shooting guard Quintin Cooper have been out for some time and I expect the Pirates to struggle offensively as it did against Hofstra on the road last time out. 

Stony Brook plays slowly and Hampton should match the tempo here in a game that I anticipate will see about 64 possessions or so. Both of these teams are really inefficient in the post, and neither wants to give up the three point shot. Stony Brook will shoot them but Hampton surprisingly has a top 60 three point defense nationally. Stony Brook doesnt get to the line much and doesnt send its opponent to the line on the defensive end. I expect this one to trend under the posted total. 

3-unit play

Lindenwood plays at a breakneck pace and averages the 7th most possessions in the country. Tennessee Tech has one of the worst defenses in the OVC that does not force turnovers and has struggled defending much of any shooting lately. 

We should see Tennessee Tech run with Lindenwood here in a game that could push 80 total possessions and both of these teams see a ton of foul shots taken in its games. We should have plenty of points scored with the clock stopped and Tech has the ability to knock down three point shots. Over

(3 Unit Play Under) The UIC Flames defense has been next level good of late. UIC is one of the hottest teams in the MVC. They have enough length to give the opposition trouble, and they are very good in transition defense. It is tough to get easy buckets on this team.

Valparaiso is pretty solid on defense, but they struggle quite a bit in the halfcourt on offense. UIC isn't likely to give them the early easy looks. UIC also does a solid job defending without fouling and that makes them a tough matchup for Valpo.

An MVC under here. 

(3 Unit Play Under) Merrimack has a history of shutting down the Siena offense. The Merrimack pressing zone slows the game down and gives opponents fits. Siena wants to get to the basket, but it is so hard to get to the hoop against this Gallo zone defense. 

Merrimack has been able to put up some points this year by getting to the line, but Siena is top 40 nationally and second best in the conference in FTA/FGA allowed on defense. This Saints defense isn't an easy matchup for the Merrimack offense either.

The first meeting went to just 54 possessions. One of the slowest paced games of the entire college basketball season thus far. Another game here where they want to walk it up. 

Go with the low side here. 

3-unit play

UT-Martin has the best defense in the OVC with considerable talent difference on this end of the floor. The Skyhawks lead the OVC in overall defensive efficiency, field goal percentage, turnovers forced, blocks and altered shots, and steals. This is going to be tough for Little Rock to get in an offensive rhythm and the on-ball pressure is going to force UALR to set up in the half court deeper into the clock. 

The Trojans do not want to shoot a ton of three point shots but I suspect these guys are going to have to do that here as paint touches and good looks inside are likely to be inefficient here. 

We have some proof of concept here with the first meeting playing 55-52 on just 62 total possessions and this venue is one that UTM struggles in historically. Should be another slow burn here. 

3-unit play

This Tarleton Offense has not been the same since Dior Johnson and Cam McDowell went out of the fold, and the result has been much slower pace and less offensive production as the Texans have lost eight of 10. 

Southern Utah has also slowed the pace over the last month during the 2nd time through the WAC opponent line up, and I think we see a slower paced game here with inefficient offensive production from both. These two just played a game 62-59 and now it will be harder on both offenses as this is the third time these teams will have squared off in the regular season. 

This game should look alot like the 2nd matchup between these two with personnel issues for Tarleton State, who is also playing its third game in five days. I think this one stays under the posted total. 

3-unit play

Monmouth has substantially increased its offensive potency since Kavion McClain has come back over the last three games and Monmouth is playing substantially faster as a result. We have seen the Hawks score in the 70's three games in a row and Monmouth was able to speed up Towson and Drexel, hard to do. 

UNCW is going to have open looks from three and the Seahawks have been hitting the outside shots of late. We have also seen UNCW much more aggressive with their big men and they are getting to the foul line a ton. I think we see good looks for Patrick Wessler down low. 

CAA hoops late in the season has seen many games with massive runs and few leads have been deemed safe, so even if UNC-W does go on a run here Monmouth should be able to make a late game push and keep this one close enough for some late-game fouling. 

4- unit play

I am not sure the books have caught up to how poorly Charleston has been playing offensively since Connor Hickman who was their second leading scorer, was ruled ineligible for the remainder of the season. Since that point the Cougars have scored 64, 62 and 62 points and have slowed its operating tempo considerably. 

NC A&T has also slowed its operating tempo down and this one could see struggles on the offensive end against a very good and underrated Charleston defense. The Cougars are the top team in the CAA in defending without fouling, and have above average two-point defense, where NCA&T is going to try to get the ball. I would imagine we do not see a ton of success from NCA&T from deep, as the Aggies are 309th in three-point percentage nationally and 320th in three point attempt rate. 

This should be played at about 64 possessions or so and we see value here in the under based on the scheme and tempo changes, and the lack of potency displayed from Charleston over the last three games without Hickman. under. 

(4 Unit Play Under) Strong sentiment here toward the under, and I expect this one to play out similar to the first meeting, a 64-60 Jacksonville State win in a game that went 58 total possessions. We had good shooting and efficient offensive play and the game was still a slog. Even with mediocre shooting we shouldnt approach this total. 

Jacksonville State does have the top-ranked defense in CUSA and the best 3-point defense as well. Do not expect much from the Bulldogs along the outside, as La Tech shot 4/17 from deep in the first meeting and I would expect a similar output here. Louisiana Tech is the worst three-point shooting team in the country. 

Jax is going to play at an incredibly slow tempo. These guys do not want to shoot three's and the offense has missed the production of Jamar Franklin from deep. I expect the post play to struggle with the height of La Tech in the post. 

We will not have pace and I expect scoring bursts to be minimal here. If we get halfway average shooting percentages tonight and avoid OT, this should stay under. 

(3 Unit Play Over) 

Miami has been much more aggressive on the offensive end of the floor in late game scenarios and the result has been back to back scoring outputs of 90 points in their last two outings. I like the Redhawks and the offenses ability to procure efficient paint touches with Antwone Woolfolk and Brant Byers, and the outside shooters are effective enough to be able to bury the deep shot against a UMass defense that has been very poor since entering MAC play. UMass also fouls more than anyone in the conference so Miami should live at the charity stripe here. 

UMass has ramped up its tempo significantly and the Minutemen are athletic enough to stress the Miami defense which has been effective, but far from "lock down". I think UMass will score points here and their point guard Danny Carbuccia has full command of the offense (see CMU game, 17 assists!!).

These two foes played to an 86-84 game which featured just 67 total possessions and I estimate 73-77 total possessions tonight, which should lead to elevated scoring and a higher point total than the first matchup. I disagree with the total movement downward and we are on the over here. 

(3 Unit Play Under) The Marist Red Foxes still rank first in the MAAC in defensive efficiency. This is a game that I would have left alone were it not for the large jump up in the total, but with this jump it is in play territory.

Marist is a defensive minded team that can go through long scoring droughts. The Red Foxes sometimes foul a bit too much on defense, but Siena is only 10th in the MAAC in FTA/FGA. They aren't likely to take advantage of that weakness.

The first game between these two was 69-50 and even more importantly it was just 61 possessions. A slow pace again here.

Under the total. 

(3 Unit Play Over) The Sacred Heart Pioneers are second to last in the MAAC in defensive efficiency. The Rider Broncs are last in the MAAC in defensive efficiency. Defense is likely to be optional when these two square off on Sunday afternoon.

Sacred Heart won 105-85 in the first meeting between these two teams. I'm certainly not expecting a score like that again, but I do think this total is set too low.

Rider has shown that they can be torched for a high number multiple times lately. Sacred Heart is much faster than the average team in this league, and they are more than capable of putting up quite a few here.

We'll take the over. 

3-Unit Play- Should see an excellent Big Sky game here between Montana and Montana State, similar to the first matchup. That first contest did have some hot shooting as Money Williams was 7/10 from the field for Montana and Davian Brown buried four three pointers for Montana State. He has missed the last four games for Montana State, and is unlikely to go here. 

I am not convinced the Griz want to run much here, but it has played faster against Sac State, Eastern Washington and Idaho in recent matchups. That is more about the opponent in my opinion rather than Travis DeCuire ramping up the tempo. 

This clash features two of the top defensive teams in the Big Sky and with both teams 8-4 in league play, the contest is ultra important to both in the race for seeding for the Big Sky tournament. Both defenses are excellent at defending without fouling, and Montana should be in better position to defend the three-point shot this time around. We like the under here in this matchup. 

3-Unit Play- Rivalry game, 2nd meeting between these two. We just saw this one play out to a 65-60 game and Western Kentucky has a very underrated CUSA defense that can contest in the painted area. WKU will ramp up the pressure and could cause Middle Tennessee into some long methodical possessions. The Blue Raiders struggle at times executing in the half court and if the shots are not falling this game could get ugly. 

WKU offensively is one of the worst rated offenses as the Toppers just cannot find reliable consistent scoring outputs from anyone. They are dead last in CUSA in effective field goal percentage, 2-point shooting, and are 11th in three point shooting. For WKU to win the 2nd installment of this rivalry game, it will have to rely on the defensive end to keep them in it. I think we see a slower moving defense battle here. Under. 

3-Unit Play- Cal Poly operates at one of the fastest tempos in the entire country, with the Mustangs ranking 4th in overall adjusted tempo. The offense is strong enough to be able to put it on opposing defenses quickly, with a barrage of 3-point shooting. Cal Poly does struggle with turnovers but that can lead to run outs and easy transition hoops on the other end, further perpetuating the over. 

UCSB does play slow but the offense is very efficient and should be able to find open looks down low against a Cal Poly defense that struggles defending the paint. The Mustangs are 299th in 2-point defense and 345th in blocked shot percentage and the Gauchos should get to the charity stripe here often. 

Cal Poly gave up 107 points in the first matchup between these two and will have to outshoot the Gauchos to stay closer this time around. Should be a high scoring affair that clears this posted total. 

3-Unit Play- Southern Indiana just struggles so badly with being able to shoot the ball effectively as the Screamin' Eagles are the 2nd worst shooting team from inside the arc in the country. Southern Indiana has seen Amaree Brown step up and play better overall but with Kaden Brown out of the fold the tradeoff is negligible. 

Tennessee Tech should be able to keep Sou. Indiana off the glass and we should see limited trips to the foul line. 

The Southern Indiana defense has to be excited about at least attempting to replicate the success they had in the first meeting where it held Tennessee Tech to just 54 points while the Golden Eagles shot just 3/20 from three-point range. I expect them to shoot a little better today, and for more of a concerted effort given on defense from Tennessee Tech. This one should stay under. 

3-Unit Play- We have great proof of concept here as these two just played on February 5th, 60-55 in a game that saw just 63 total possessions. LIU has the best defense in the conference, and the Sharks will be fine playing a slower pace game like we saw in the first matchup. 

The Chargers are just not equipped with a roster capable of taking advantage of this LIU defense, and in the first meeting had just 35 points at the "under-10" mark in the 2nd half. The first meeting never trended over, as New Haven made just 22 total shots including 2/14 from deep. 

New Haven has an offense that ranks 350th in overall efficiency, and 353rd in pace. These guys are going to have to be meticulous about getting good looks and it should be a struggle securing offensive rebounds and second chance points. This game should be a slog. Under

3-Unit Play- This line has steamed up significantly to a point where we show exceptional value on the under in this matchup. We have a matchup here between the 14th and 18th most effective offenses in the ACC, not good, and after a double-OT affair against Syracuse, California could have some tired legs and look to slow the pace to more of what BC plays at. BC is one of the slower paced teams in the ACC and its offense just struggles at accumulating good quality shots, and offensive rebounding is nonexistent here. 

I like Cal to lock in on the defensive end in this one, a game it must win in order to keep its bleak NCAA Tournament hopes alive. If California can stop Donald Hand from going off for 25+ points, which I think they can, this could be a spot where BC struggles to score more than 60 points. The BC defense is better than you think, and I expect this to be more of a defensive game here. Under

(4 Unit Sun Belt Total of the Year Under) 

TOP PLAY TOTAL!

South Alabama plays at one of the slowest paces in the country, 318th nationally and the Jaguars are THE slowest team in the Sun-Belt conference. The Jags struggle shooting the ball from deep and seek to work the ball into the painted area which plays right into the strength of the Southern Miss defense. I would expect USA to struggle to get quality touches on the block in this one. 

The Jags defense will throw itself into this crazy zone look that has really frustrated its opponents and forcing Southern Miss to shoot over it will be the strategy tonight. The Golden Eagles rank 363rd nationally, nearly DEAD LAST in the country, in three-point shooting percentage, while also ranking 353rd nationally in 3-point attempts. These guys do not want to shoot the ball from deep but Southern Miss will be forced to do so tonight, and the offense should look a little out of its element against the Richie Riley zone defense. 

The Jags will control the pace here and I would expect this game to be played closer to 62-64 possessions, with both offenses struggling. South Alabama is not going to send USM to the foul line and offensive rebounding from both sides should be kept to a minimum, so put backs and 2nd chance points I expect to be limited here. 

We love the under in this matchup and have made it our SUN BELT TOTAL OF THE YEAR! 

(3 Unit Play Under) 

We might be getting a bit of an inflated total here as Evansville just played the Redbirds of Illinois State to an 88-80 final, but these Purple Aces struggle on offense and the majority of their games in the league-portion of their schedule have trended to lower scoring affairs. 

Evansville cannot shoot the ball well from 2- or 3-point range and offensive rebounds are non-existent. I would expect several empty trips against the Salukies that are equipped with the third most efficient defense in the Missouri Valley Conference. SIU defends the painted area well, and Evansville will not get many trips to the line here in this matchup. 

While SIU has had some higher finals recently, they played two teams in a row who want to run and push the pace. This defense did however hold Illinois State and Northern Iowa to 50 points, and I would expect a strong defensive showing here. We like the under in this matchup. 

3-unit play

A matchup featuring the top two most efficient defenses in the CAA is what we have in store for you tonight, and one where the pace should be slow. Drexel operates at the slowest pace tempo in the conference and comes in 341st nationally in tempo. Monmouth has a slower than average tempo and should struggle here against a solid Drexel defense that does not allow open looks from deep and does well to defend the painted area. 

Monmouth does not shoot a lot of three point shots and its overall effective field goal percentage is 290th nationally. These guys shouldnt see a ton of success getting to the charity stripe. Last time against the Dragons, Monmouth scored just 51 points in a game that played to 60 total possessions and now have to try to do it again on the road here. Not going to go well. 

The Defense will step up, and Drexel is a horrific offense at getting to the foul line or shooting it from in close. This should be a game played in the low 60's. Under

(3 Unit Play Under) 

What we have here is a battle between two of the worst offensive basketball teams in the entire country, and two foes who operate at an extremely slow pace as well. EIU ranks 357th nationally in offensive efficiency, and 286th in pace. WIU ranks 359th in offensive efficiency and 263rd in pace. These two are not skilled at shooting from 2, 3 or the foul line, and this will be a tough watch. 

We should see a game played at 63-65 total possessions and we have proof of concept on this play via the first meeting we saw this season, a 57-55 EIU victory. 

Western Illinois is 0-14 in OVC conference play and the Leathernecks are really struggling routinely to score points. These guys turn the ball over far too frequently and struggle to get paint touches that produce points. I feel this team will struggle against an EIU defense that has at least been fairly competent and has forced more turnovers than anyone in the conference. This will result in empty trips for WIU. 

Neither team wants to shoot the three-ball and both are ill-equipped with a true point guard to facilitate the offense. WIth this total where it is at, The only way we can look is low side. 

3-unit play 

Fordham has shown its ability to have its games stay under the posted total due to enduring and forcing long second half stretches of scoreless basketball. Last time out the Rams failed to score in the last five minutes and saw a five point lead evaporate.

Dejour Reaves is a capable scorer but outside of his ability this Ram offense is not great at shooting from deep, ranking 356th nationally in 3-point shooting percentage. The Rams struggle in generating trips to the foul line, but outside of that there is not a ton of explosive talent on this Fordham offense. 

SJU struggles shooting from deep and also will not generate trips to the charity stripe. Both defenses are top-25 nationally in defensive free throw rate. Fordham just played three opponents who seek to push the tempo so this will be a refreshing change of pace squaring off against an opponent who wants to grind down a low-possession game as the Rams do. Under

3-unit play

Fun Big West game, critical for both teams down the stretch. UCI offensively has not been the same on the road, and should struggle against the Gauchos packline defense. Paint touches will be tough to come by and UCI is going to have to rely on some outside shooting, something it does not like to do. UCI shoots fewer three's than almost anyone in the country. 

UCSB is going to slow this pace down to a snails crawl, and UCI should oblige. I am not convinced the Anteaters want to run, so this game should be played to 60-62 overall possessions. UCI has the best defense in the conference, and we have the top two 3-point defenses in the Big West squaring off. I expect missed deep shots, in a game that finishes under the posted total. 

3-unit play

We should see a fast-paced and entertaining basketball game here today. Ohio is a team that has ramped up their offensive tempo considerably the last 5-6 games and that will serve them well against a poor Old Dominion defense that struggles to defend the rim and cannot keep its opponents off the foul line. This game should see a ton of free throws on both sides. 

Old Dominion is scoring the basketball pretty well and the Monarchs have some shooters. Ohio struggles guarding the 3-point line, a persistent problem all season for the Bobcats. 3-s and Free Throws are wonderful for an over, and in a close game, some late game fouling is also to be expected. This game should be played in the 70's for possession count with each team scoring 80 points. Over. 

3-unit play

LIU is the strongest defensive team in the NEC, and has held its last 4 opponents to 63 points or less. I would Imagine the Sharks are fully locked in for this matchup after the first game was much closer than expected. LIU does a great job clogging the lane defensively and Stonehill is going to have to shoot outside jumpers in order to stay in this game. 

That is going to be an issue for the Skyhawks who dont routinely rely on the three point shot, and only make those at 31% on the season, 274th in all of college basketball. Both teams struggle with turning the ball over and with a game likely to see only 63-65 total possessions, turning the ball over 20% of the time will be a major issue to necessitate scoring. Under

3-unit play

Fordham plays at one of the slowest paces in all of college basketball and the Rams are not equipped to shoot the ball from deep, something they are going to have to do against the Bonnies in this matchup. Fordham may also struggle here with the pressure from St. Bonaventure and that will result in empty trips. 

The Fordham defense is going to do a decent job of limiting inside looks for SBU and the Bonnies are going to have to shoot outside shots to win this game. That is not what they are comfortable doing. The first matchup was a major trend under and we saw some late scoring but I am not sure that will play out the same way today. We like under. 

3-unit play

UMass plays at a frenetic pace and will likely force the issue here against Coastal Carolina, who will likely see the turnovers mount on the offensive end. I would expect Mass to run out in transition a ton here and get to the rim a lot. Expect Umass to live at the foul line here. 

The Umass defense will have some success but Coastal will get to the line a bit in this matchup and should hit some outside shots at home here. I would expect this game to be close late, and late game fouling gets us over the hump here. I like over in this matchup. 

(3 Unit Play) 

We saw the proof of concept in the first matchup which played to 68 possessions yet ended 56-52. Both of these teams are better defensive teams than offensive, and UTA has been flying under the radar with their excelled defense. The Mavericks force turnovers and run a high intensity scheme that should create issues for the Trailblazers and force them into turnovers. 

UTA is a poor offensive basketball team that struggles with turnovers themselves, committing them on 22% of offensive possessions. These guys do not shoot the ball well, and rarely shoot from deep, missing when they do. We should see more points in this one than in the first meeting but I fully expect both of these teams to be in the 60's here, so with the total where it is, we like the under. 

(3 Unit Play) 

Western Illinois has one of the worst offensive basketball teams in the country and I have very little confidence that the Leathernecks will have success here in this matchup. WIU has struggled scoring the basketball and they are turning it over at a high rate. WIU is going to play a slow pace in this one as they have most of the way this season, so watch for this one to be played at less than 65 total possessions.

Tennessee Tech has played some of the more up tempo teams in the conference as of late which has inflated its point totals in their most recent games but I am not convinced that the Golden Eagles want to operate quickly on offense, as when they do they turn the ball over way too frequently. watch for this one to be a turnover filled, poor shooting affair. Under. 

(3 Unit Play) 

Fairfield has really struggled defensively this season ranking 307th nationally in defensive efficiency and the Stags do not generate a ton of pressure or force turnovers. We should see a decent tempo in this one and I think the Fairfield offense should have some success against a poor SHU defensive team. 

The Pioneers are one of the worst teams in all of college basketball in terms of defending inside the paint and the Stags want to get post touches for their bigs and get to the rim. 

SHU Sr. Forward Anquan Hill should have success against this Fairfield defense and he is capable of going off for 20-25 points on any given night so watch for him to take a bunch of shots here. This will be a fun game and we expect it to be higher scoring. 

3-unit play

Iowa plays a much different style than we have come to know and love but the Hawkeyes are still getting the job done with first year head coach Ben McCollum. This group plays a slow methodical tempo, and excellent lock down defense. 

Iowa will force you deep into the possession clock and the result is often unforced errors or contested deep threes, which miss. The Hawkeyes want this game played at 59-62 total possessions and with the way Washington has slowed the pace in conference play, I think we are in for a slug-fest. 

Washington cannot shoot the three ball well and I feel the Huskies will struggle to get paint touches in this one. Should be one where both teams are in the 60's for point total. Under. 

3-unit play

This total is just simply too high based on the skill set and how these two teams play. La Tech cannot shoot the ball from 3-point range, ranking 359th nationally while shooting just 28%. The post game for La Tech is weak and the athletic quick moving defense for New Mexico State should control the terms when La Tech has the ball. 

LT has been a much better defensive team and should lean in on that defense at home in this one. The Bulldogs block or alter shots really well and NMSU struggles to shoot the ball well out of the post. We should see contested jumpers and missed shots here in a game played at 60-63 total possessions. Under. 

3-unit play

These two have some familiarity with each other with the last three games having major under trending. UCF has done well to piece together a nice roster after seeing 11 transfers come in, and their defensive length could create some issues for Houston while operating on offense. 

The Houston defense is nasty, and can lock down anyone in the country when motivated. We saw this defense step up against Cincinnati at home last time out, and I feel that Kelvin Sampson has gotten through to his Cougars, that the way they are going to make a deep run is by winning on the defensive end. 

Aside from that Houston does settle for contested mid-range jumpers and three point shots, far too frequently. We should see this here, and I think the length of UCF can create some issues for Houston offensively. 

UCF is going to struggle on the offensive end. I do not expect paint touches or trips to the foul line so this will come down to 3-point shooting which is not the element the Knights want to operate out of. We get a Houston game at 149, diving in on the under. 

(4 Unit Top Play Under) 

TOP PLAY

Talk about one of the slowest paced games of the entire season being played in this one. South Alabama operates at the 323rd tempo pace in the country, while App State comes in at 360th. Both teams are strong under-trend teams and this should be magnified when these two face off against each other tonight. 

South Alabama struggles from three-point range offensively and the Jags want to be methodical about getting the ball into the painted area. Appy ranks 29th nationally in 2-point defense and are a strong defensive rebounding team. We should see minimal second chance opportunity for South Alabama in this game and we could see the Jags struggle making shots, so once deep into the possession clock desperation three-pointers should be the result. App State is a strong defense at avoiding fouling which will be critical to not bail the Jags out as the shot clock dwindles down. 

South has the 2nd best defense in the country in defending without fouling and good defensive position will be needed here. App State will have to work for everything on the offensive end and we should see the Mountaineers seek to get the ball into the painted area. In priors App State has thrown up a fair amount of 3-point shots but it is just 276th nationally in 3-point range. As long as we dont get some fluky variance in the 3-point shooting from two poor shooting teams, we should be looking at a dead-nut under here. This is our top play of the day today. 

(3 Unit Play Over) The Belmont Bruins are the better team here, and they are the ones who want to push the pace. They are averaging just 15.9 seconds per possession on offense in the MVC this season. Belmont is committed to going fast with Casey Alexander at the helm. They are also first in the league in offensive efficiency.

Belmont already won 78-76 at Drake. The Bruins have been extremely consistent on offense. They have scored 78 points or more in six of their last seven games. 

Drake is second in overall tempo in the MVC. There aren't many teams in this league willing to run with Belmont, but Drake is one of those teams.

Belmont is a clear favorite and Drake should be in catch up mode. 

On the over in this one. 

3-unit play

Fordham operates at one of the slowest tempos in America and the offense struggles to shoot or get to the line. The Rams have slowed the tempo and controlled the pace substantially better at home, and I think the guards will handle the pressure put on by the VCU defense. This will provoke a slower game flow as the Rams do not want to get sped up in this game. 

VCU thrives at hitting the long ball or getting to the rim but I am not confident that VCU will be able to get to the rim in this game, so a magnified effort will be placed on getting three point shots to fall. Fordham has been a decent outside shooting defense and have done well to get their opponents deep into the possession clock. I think we will see a shorter possession count in this one and the game should finish under this total which I believe is a tick too high. Under. 

(3 Unit Play Under) Rider and St. Peter's already played once this year, and it was a 69-58 St. Peter's win. That game was played to a very slow pace of just 62 possessions. 

St. Peter's is 343rd in the country in average possession length. Rider is 352nd in that same statistic. This game should be a walk it up and stall type of game. 

Rider is one of the worst offenses in the country. They are 364th (second worst nationally) in effective field goal percentage offense. They struggle to run any offense, and they aren't likely to figure things out here.

St. Peter's is the better team, but they also go through long scoring droughts. They have scored just 59 and 66 points in their last couple games.

We'll side with the under here. 

3-unit play 

Western Illinois has the worst offensive team in the Ohio Valley conference. The leathernecks cannot shoot the ball ranking 341st in three point percentage, 358th from inside the arc, and 330th in FT percentage. This WIU team also operates at a very slow pace offensively and there is just not much to get excited about for the Leathernecks while squaring off against a high energy, high pressure defense of UTM. We should see a ton of sloppy turnovers and a real struggle for Western Illinois on the offensive  end. 

UT-Martin has been streaky of late winning seven of their last eight games overall. The defense is strong in the interior, and guards the rim well. Offensively this team struggles with turnovers and while the SKyhawks chuck up a ton of shots from deep, they are one of the worst shooting teams in the OVC. This should mimic the first outing which was played at 64 possessions and finished with 127 total points. Under

3- unit play

FGCU has been sporadic with their tempo at times this season but the Eagles have slowed the pace substantially the last three games and I think we see that continue here. Jacksonville is one of the better defensive teams in the ASUN and the offense for the Dolphins operates at one of the slowest tempos in the country, 356th in adjusted pace. 

Jacksonville ranks 270th in three point shooting and the Dolphins do not create well at the rim. Foul shooting is weak, and the attempts are few. Neither of these teams should live at the line here and I would expect sloppy post play and missed jumpers. Turnovers, missed shots, should all lead to an under between these two. 

3- unit play

Fordham is capable of mucking up these games better than anyone in A10 play and the Rams will control the pace in this one. Fordham operates at a tempo that is 354th nationally and Has seen their games trend hard to the under. 

The Rams cannot shoot the ball very well and they do not get to the foul line frequently. GW runs a fun offense but the Revolutionaries are going to have to work hard on the offensive end to get open looks or points in the paint. Both of these defenses are inside the top-70 in preventing offensive rebounds so look for minimal second chance opportunities and a lack of put backs at the hole. 

I expect this one to finish under this total. 

3-unit play 

Two of the slowest pace teams in the CAA as Towson operates at a tempo of 344th nationally and Hampton is 312th. Both of these offenses struggle to get going as the Tigers cannot shoot the ball from deep, making only 26% of outside shots, worst in the country. Niether team wants to shoot the deep ball might might be forced to due to being able to get anything else going in the half court offense. 

The first meeting saw 125 total points and the game played to 60 total possessions, I feel we are in line for a similar set up here. Hampton struggles with turnovers and the Towson defense will force them here. They do not seek to run out in transition frequently so the result will be an empty trip followed by a slow walk up, and setting up in the half court.  I like the under in this one. 

3-unit play

We do have a matchup here between two of the worst offensive teams in the A-Sun and despite some recent higher scoring games from both, neither of these teams are built for score fests. UNA cannot shoot the ball effectively and their interior post play has been largely ineffective this season on the offensive end. The Lions do not shoot well from 2 or 3 point range and will likely struggle here on the road. 

Stetson is another team that struggles on the offensive end as this team cannot shoot effectively, is absent true scoring threats and the Hatters do not get to the line frequently. The Hatters regularly see games in the mid-60s for possession count and I expect this one to be close late, and have the pace slow in the last five minutes of the 2nd half. This should eek under. 

3-unit play

LIU has slowed the tempo down considerably since entering NEC play and the pace should be controlled by Central Connecticut State who likes to operate slowly. Long Island really struggles with turnovers and the problem has gotten worse since entering league play. CCSU will apply pressure here and this should create empty possessions on the offensive end for the Sharks. 

CCSU does not have as much offensive firepower as we have seen in years past from the Blue Devils. This team is struggling on the offensive glass, and rarely sees second chance scoring opportunities. The first meeting between these two was played at 59 possessions and did see outlandishly high shooting percentages. I think that corrects itself this time around. under. 

(3 Unit Play Under) The Grand Canyon Antelopes went to Boise State and won 75-58. Boise now gets a chance to get road revenge. It won't be easy with the amazing home court Grand Canyon has, but Boise State has been playing well on the road of late. 

This total has been bet up quite a bit, and we're going to take the under here. Boise State is 47th nationally in defensive efficiency. Grand Canyon is 19th in the country in defensive efficiency. Both teams are great on the defensive glass, so we shouldn't see many second chance opportunities in this one. 

The pace of both teams is slightly below average. 

Boise State has been roasting bad defenses of late, but they go up against a very tough one here.

A real battle in this one.

On the under! 

3-UNIT PLAY

The UCI defense is nasty, and Russell Turner has this group playing really good defensive hoops, evident by just holding UC San Diego to 59 total points. The Anteaters defend well without fouling, contest everything and consistently have exquisite post play, this year is no different. 

I would expect Hawaii to struggle inside which is really where the Bows make their living. Getting the ball inside allows for kickouts but if the post is not effective the entire operation can stall out. I would expect Hawaii to slow the pace significantly in this one and for defense to set the tone. 

The Bows defense is really underrated as every jumper, drive and deep shot is contested. Hawaii doesnt foul a ton and they have one of the best three point defenses in the country. I think this total is a hair too high here given the schematic matchup and defensive prowess of both teams.