Lakers in a letdown spot. Give me the points with Orlando. 

T.M. Selection: Pacers.

Indiana comes in off four straight losses. It plays with the added incentive of revenge here as well following a tight 114-113 loss at home to the Knicks back in December. Note that Indiana is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. With a game at Philadelphia tomorrow night, look for the home side to get caught looking ahead, leaving the back door open for the desperate visitors; grab the points with the Pacers and expect a competitive battle until the end!

T.M. Prediction: 114-110 New York.

T.M. Selection: Lakers.

LA is 17-10 on the road, while New York is 19-6 at home. This is the first game of the year between the clubs. LA, though, comes in off a 142-111 victory at Washington and I see it carrying that momentum over here as well. The Knicks have won and covered in five straight, but I think they'll have their hands full with Luka and company tonight; grab the points!

T.M. Prediction: 116-114 LA.

T.M. Selection: Rockets.

Houston lost this game at OKC by a score of 125-124 in OT and I believe the team that has its hands on the ball last tonight will also come out on top. Houston just snapped a three-game slide and I love the Rockets here at home in this revenge spot; grab the points! 

T.M. Prediction: 113-110 Houston.

T.M. Selection: Pacers.

The Pacers have won three in a row and they play with revenge following a 97-95 loss at Toronto back in November. The Raptors are off a lacklustre 115-102 loss at home to Philly and I believe they'll have trouble on the road here as well and while the outright victory is the most likely outcome for the home side, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is on the Pacers!

T.M. Prediction: 112-110 Indiana.

T.M. Selection: Nets.

Brooklyn plays with revenge following a 137-109 loss at Houston back in October, and note that the Nets are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. With a game at Dallas on Saturday, I expect the visitors to get caught "looking ahead" and to take the foot off the gas in the second half, allowing a comfortable cover (at the very least), for the revenge-minded home side; the play is on Brooklyn!

T.M. Prediction: 110-109 Houston.

T.M. Selection: Cavaliers.

Houston is playing well, off 4 straight wins, but with a home game against conference rival and red-hot Denver at home on Friday night, I am predicting the visitors get caught "looking ahead." It's a classic "trap" game I'd say for Houston. Cleveland will look to take advantage, as its off two straight wins and everything points to another solid win and cover here as well in my opinion. The outright win is the most likely outcome, but let's grab the point/s!

T.M. Prediction: 120-113 Cleveland.

T.M. Selection: Pelicans.

It's a great spot for New Orleans here, as the Pelicans enter having won two straight and have had two nights off, while the Spurs come in fatigued after their big win at home over the Rockets just last night. With a game at the Bulls on Monday, I think the home side comes out flat here in the second game of the back-to-back against the suddenly surging Pels; grab the points!

T.M. Prediction: 114-110 San Antonio.

T.M. Selection: Heat.

The Lakers have looked decent, coming in at 4-2 SU and ATS, but after back-to-back road wins/covers, I smell a letdown here against the Heat, who after a three-game win streak, are looking to bounce back after a tough 107-101 loss at San Antonio to kick off this trip. The Spurs though are 5-0 and playing elite-level and Miami also likely got caught "looking ahead" to this one. Look for Austin Reaves and the Lakers to take a small step back here; that said, grab the points!  

T.M. Prediction: 118-116 Miami.

T.M. Selection: Kings.

The Lakers got a super-human effort out of Luka Doncic in their 128-110 win over the Wolves last time out, but now on the road for the first time, I smell regression. And with a home game against Portland tomorrow, the visitors get caught "looking ahead" as well. Sacramento lost at Phoenix on opening night, but then bounced back with a hard-fought 105-104 home win over Utah. I think the Kings will win outright, but the official call is to grab as many points as you can.

T.M. Prediction: 120-110 Sacramento.

T.M. Selection: 76ers.

Philly is off the great 117-116 road win at Boston and after it had such a slow start last year, we can expect the 76ers to really be cautious on how they approach the season and each game. That said, they looked great and I think they carry that momentum over here. Granted, Charlotte also looked decent in its 136-117 home win over Brooklyn, but now hitting the road for the first time this year, a letdown feels imminent to me; overall a great "situational" play on Philadelphia!

T.M. Prediction: 126-110 Philly.

T.M. Selection: Thunder.

What can we expect out of the Thunder this year? We already know the answer after their 125-124 OT win over the Rockets. OKC played from behind the entire game and still took the Rockets "best shot" and found a way to win. The Pacers have continued to get better each season, but I think that regression could be in order this year. I see the Pacers taking some time to get up to speed again and do truly feel that the team as a whole could take a big step back this season; lay the points with confidence!

T.M. Prediction: 125-107 OKC.

T.M. Selection: Kings.

The Suns hired Jordan Ott to replace Mike Budenholzer at coach, but Ott will have his hands full once again in this transitional season. Last season the Kings made it to the play-in Tournament, but they've made several changes to their roster and will likely take a step back this year. That said, Sacramento has the pieces in place on Opening night to pull off the outright upset in my opinion, but I'm grabbing the points!

T.M. Prediction: 115-114 Phoenix.

T.M. Selection: Indiana Pacers.

Indiana won Game 1 and I believe it has a legit shot at winning Game 2. I had a 5% play on the Pacers in Game 1 and the analysis I posted in that pick basically also directly pertains to this Game 2 pick as well (if you haven't had a chance to read that analysis, I'll post it here now: While I'm not calling for an outright victory or anything, everything points to a a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe in Game 1 of the NBA Finals in my opinion. Indiana has consistently been underrated thoughout these Playoffs, both by the oddsmakers and their opponents. That's the case here again in Game 1. Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton are going to be able to keep their team competitive late, so I'm recommending to grab as many points as you can!) Grab as many points as you can (but don't be shocked by another outright!) 

T.M. Prediction: 115-114 OKC.

T.M. Selection: Pacers.

While I'm not calling for an outright victory or anything, everything points to a a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe in Game 1 of the NBA Finals in my opinion. Indiana has consistently been underrated thoughout these Playoffs, both by the oddsmakers and their opponents. That's the case here again in Game 1. Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton are going to be able to keep their team competitive late, so I'm recommending to grab as many points as you can!

T.M. Prediction: 116-114 OKC.

T.M. Selection: Knicks.

Being successful in the Playoffs is about making adjustments. Karl Anthony Towns, Josh Hart, Jalen Brunson and the rest of the Knicks have done that extremely well over the last three games. Time for another Game 7 in my estimation! For the Pacers to be successful at this level, they need to get truly gargantuan games out of both Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton. Yes, the Pacers are 29-11 at home, but they're just 21-25-1 ATS. The Knicks are 24-17 SU on the road. The League would LOVE it is somehow New York could figure out a way to come back and steal this series. It COULD happen. That said, the official call for this play is to grab up as many points as you can!

T.M. Prediction: 110-108 New York.

T.M. Selection: Wolves.

I believe that home court advantage DOES matter in this series. The Thunder rolled to two straight victories at home, but Anthony Edwards and the Wolves looked great in their 143-101 destruction in Game 3. Now getting points here in Game 4, it feels like we're getting a "gift" almost. The wrong team is favored here. The Thunder were great on the road this season, but they're just 4-6 ATS in their last ten overall, while Minnesota is 7-3 ATS in its last ten. I'm banking on the hungry home side to find a way to deliver the goods here in Game 4 as well. That said, grab the points!

T.M. Prediction: 119-100 Minnesota.

T.M. Selection: Minnesota.

I'm not counting out Anthony Edwards and company yet. The Wolves looked good in the first half, but were unable to continue the pressure in the second half. I think Minnesota will keep it competitive in both quarter this time around. OKC lost to Denver at home in Game 1 in the second round, so the Wolves have the blue-print on what to do. Look for Rudy Gobert to play a bigger role here in Game 2 for the Wolves and for the desperate visiting side to do more than enough to, at the very least, earn the comfortable cover with all of these points.

T.M. Prediction: 108-106 OKC.

T.M. Selection: Pacers.

These teams are evenly matched in my opinion. Both teams have been undervalued by the bookmakers throughout the playoffs, but Indiana has a legit shot at taking this game outright in my opinion. Indiana had no problem with Giannis, and it destoryed the No. 1 team in the league in Cleveland. New York's competition has been suspect, as Jason Tatum injured himself and we'll never really know if Jalen Brunson and company would have been able to pull off the series victory if the Boston star had played. Either way, in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

T.M. Prediction: 113-111 Indiana.

T.M. Selection: Wolves.

These teams were extremely competitive throughout the NBA's regular season, going 2-2 against each other. I'm expecting another competitive matchup here in Game 1, as well as this series. Minnesota rolled through its first two opponents and comes in completely rested. OKC needed 7 gruelling games to get by Denver. The Thunder have looked fantastic during these playoffs at times, but also bad in other spots. I think Game 1 will be another "bad" spot for the Thunder and while I'm stopping short in calling for the outright upset, everything points to this one coming "right down to the wire." Grab the points, Wolves are the correct call!

T.M. Prediction: 108-107 OKC.

T.M. Selection: Oklahoma City Thunder (WEST-CONF GOW)

This has been a back-and-forth series, but it appears to me as if Nikola Jokic is now running on fumes after having to once again do most of the heavy lifting for the Nuggets in this series. OKC is just 1-5 ATS in its last six, but I'm expecting Shai and the rest of the home side to keep the foot on the gas here from start to finish in Game 5. The Nuggets are still just 22-23-1 ATS on the road this season, while the Thunder are still 31-12-2 ATS at home. This one has "blowout" written all over it. Lay the points with confidence!

T.M. Prediction: 121-100 OKC.

T.M. Selection: Knicks.

I really do feel that New York has a legitimate shot at winning this game outright, but in the end, I'll recommend grabbing the points. Very much like the Pacers, who took both games in Cleveland, then dropped Game 3 at home, only to then take Game 4 last night quite easily as an underdog, I'm expecting a similar thing to happen here in The Big Apple after the Knicks dropped their Game 3 matchup to the C's by a score of 115-93. Previous to that, Jalen Brunson and company had won three straight. Now I think they're going to bounce back big here. Note as well that the Knicks are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss in which they were held to 95 or fewer points in. It's now the Celtics who are completely overvalued in this spot. Grab the points, Knicks dominate!

T.M. Prediction: 105-103 Boston.

T.M. Selection: Wolves on the spread.

Favorites in the NBA Playoffs have had a difficult time this year, but now I believe that the Wolves will lay the hammer down on the Warriors in Game 2 of their Western Conference Semifinal matchup after Golden State shocked Minnesota in the 99-88 outright victory as a 6-point underdog. So what's the deal in Game 2? How could the Wolves possibly be favored by significantly more here in Game 2 despite getting dominated in Game 1? Easy answer: Warriors' star player Stephen Curry is sidelined with a hamstring injury. Suffice it to say, with the heart and soul of their team no longer shouldering the load and mental edge, I believe the Wolves can "smell the blood in the water." Minnesota and Anthony Edwards had an uncharacteristically poor shooting night as well, and I simply don't see that happening twice. This is a golden opportunity for Minnesota to regain control and momentum, and I expect them to do that here in Game 2, not only but winning large. Lay the points, Minnesota is the play!

T.M. Prediction: 111-80 Minnesota.

T.M. Selection: Houston Rockets with the points (WEST-CONF GOM)

While I do think that an outright win is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with the visiting side. While the Rockets are a decent 23-18-1 ATS on the road this year, Golden State is just 18-24-2 ATS at home. And now I once again feel that the Warriors are overvalued in this position. Houston's depth and perimeter defense can into play in Game 5 and I think Fred Van Vleet and company can keep that positive momentum rolling here. The Warriors are now desperate to get the job done here, but I say that Stephen Curry is "out of gas." Again, I'm not calling for the outright upset, but everything points to this one coming right down to the wire.

T.M. Prediction: 103-102 Golden State.

T.M. Selection: Minnesota Timberwolves spread

The road team is not being given enough respect here. The Timberwolves were down by double digits in the 3rd quarter of Game 4 but came all the way back for the big home win. Minnesota continues to dominate with an advantage on points scored inside the paint and they also have a ton of confidence being up 3-1 in the series and coming off the huge comeback win. The Lakers are playing in a pressure cooker right now in LA with those original hopes of Doncic and LeBron leading them to glory now quickly fading away. Now it looks like this team will not even get out of the first round. The Timberwolves won Game 4 even though their big minutes guy off the bench (DiVincenzo) and 2 of the starters (Gobert and Conley) combined to go 5 of 22 from the field! When 3 of the 6 most important players have games like that and yet the team still wins the game, that says a lot! What is also says is that the Lakers are in trouble! That is what I am counting on here and I fully expect a road upset win here but will grab the half-dozen points on offer.

T.M. Prediction: 107-102 Minnesota

T.M. Selection: Denver Nuggets spread

The home team is not being given enough respect here. The Clippers were down by 20+ points during the Game 4 loss to the Nuggets and that game was in LA. The game ended up being a tight finish but that is also leading to line value here. Had that game ended a blowout like it appeared it was headed toward, the line here likely would be different. As it is we are getting line value here with the home dog Nuggets. If they get another big lead like they had in Game 4 on the road they are certainly unlikely to relinquish it in their own building. That is what I am counting on here and I fully expect a solid home win here but will grab the couple points on offer.

T.M. Prediction: 110-102 Denver

T.M. Selection: Miami Heat spread

The Heat are down 3-0 in the series but this Game 4 is about professional pride as much as anything else. Even if Miami loses this game I don't see them going down without a fight. Miami got ripped in Game 3 and that insures a huge effort here in Game 4 after it was a franchise-worst playoff loss in Game 3. Miami has a good history this season of bouncing back when off ugly low-scoring efforts. Look for the Heat to respond big here after being held under 90 points in the prior game. We have seen this time and time again from Miami when off ugly efforts and also lets not forget they finished the regular season with a very strong run in home games. One bad loss is not going to change everything and the Heat are now undervalued here in this spot. Take advantage by grabbing the generous points. 

T.M. Prediction: 107-106 Miami 

T.M. Selection: Denver spread 

These are very generous points here and I am going to challenge the Clippers to win this by more than 7 points. The Nuggets just blasted in the prior game and that is the kind of ugly loss (margin of 34 points) that will generate a big response from a high quality team in the next game. Remember the Nuggets were the World Champs just two years ago. There is a lot of pride in this franchise and we will witness their A game here after the B2B losses. 

T.M. Prediction: 107-106 Denver

T.M. Selection: Orlando Magic spread These are very generous points here and I am going to challenge the Celtics to win this by more than 4 points on the road. Yes, Boston is a fantastic team but Game 2 was a single-digit margin game most of the entire game and, of course, remember that this game was at Oklahoma City. Down 2-0 in the series and finally back home, you are going to see the best game you will see from Orlando in this series and, for my money, that is enough for the all-important cover here. Similar to what we saw with Memphis yesterday in this spot and they might have won outright had Morant not gotten hurt. So look for a similar big game performance here from the Magic at home! T.M. Prediction: 101-97 Orlando

T.M. Selection: Memphis Grizzlies spread

This is just too many points here and I am going to challenge the Thunder to win this by double digits on the road. Yes, OKC is a fantastic team but Game 2 was a single-digit margin game very late in the 3rd before the Grizzlies had a horrible 4th quarter. Remember this game was at Oklahoma City. Down 2-0 in the series and finally back home, you are going to see the best game you will see from Memphis in this series and, for my money, that is enough for the all-important cover here. 

T.M. Prediction: 114-113 Oklahoma City

T.M. Selection: Miami Heat spread

Miami was only down 8 with 7 minutes to go in the game in the Game 1 match-up. Truly the Heat were inside the big number most of the game so I feel we have value here with a playoff-tested and battle-tested Heat group that is also very well-coached. Miami was outscored by 15 points from beyond the arc so those 5 extra made threes were the Cavs is what resulted in a 21 point win instead of a 6-point win. The zig-zag theory in NBA playoffs has shown time and time again that these things even out. I am looking for the Heat to absolutely give the Cavs all they can handle in this one. Give me the double digits here! 

T.M. Prediction: 108-104 Cleveland.

T.M. Selection: Orlando Magic spread

Orlando has some hope here as they were leading game 1 by 1 point at the half before Boston pulled away big in the 2nd half for the cover. The Celtics outscored the Magic by 18 points from 3 point land so I like the value that is giving us here as that should even out some from the 6 extra threes that Boston made in Game 1. The points is that "inside the arc" the Magic actually outscored the Celtics by 3 in Game 1. Give me the double digits here! 

T.M. Prediction: 99-98 Boston.

T.M. Selection: Detroit Pistons spread

1) The Pistons looked great before a disastrous 4th quarter against the Knicks. Detroit does not have the playoff experience level that New York does but that loss will serve them well in that regard. They bounce back strong here. 

2) Detroit had turnover problems in game one but has not been the norm for the Pistons this season and they should turn it around here. That was an unusual results Saturday that is unlikely to be repeated. The Pistons led Saturday's game by as many as 9 points so getting 7 with them again here is a big value. 

3) The Knicks were only 3-3 last 6 home games prior to that huge comeback win and the value is significant here as the Pistons also had won 3 straight over the Knicks by an average margin of 8 points per game prior to the Game One loss. This is the old zig-zag theory but yes we like playing the opposite of the Game One result when the parameters all line up and this one fits the bill!

T.M. Prediction: 112-109 Detroit.

T.M. Selection: Dallas Mavericks spread

A lot of value with the points here as the Mavericks are undervalued. They are much healthier than they have been in awhile and have had a chance to fully adjust now to life without Doncic. Also, the Kings are without Monk and his contributions will be missed in a key game like this. Even though Sacramento won all 3 regular season meetings, of course this game is priced this way for a reason. You would think the Kings would be a bigger favorite considering the season series sweep and home court edge here. But they are a smaller favorite and that is another reason I am backing the dog here as that is where sharp money is likely headed. Don't let the line fool you on this one! I expect the Mavericks to win outright but will grab the points for added value here in the event they fall a bucket or two short. 

T.M. Prediction: 110-105 Dallas.

T.M. Selection: Atlanta Hawks spread

1) A lot of value with the points here as the Magic are not strong offensively. Orlando has a tendency to win a lot of low-scoring grinders.   

2) Orlando started the season strong and finished the season strong but in the middle was a brutal long-term 17-31 SU stretch. It is hard to trust a team that has a run like that. The Hawks did win 4 of their last 6 games this season and a team with Trae Young is always a dangerous underdog in a team projected to be tighter.  

3) The issue for the Magic here is they are being overvalued because they are at home here. They did win their final 2 home games of the season but this was after a 2-8 SU run. The point is that being priced for home court edge means more underdog value because the home court edge is NOT a big one for the Magic. 

T.M. Prediction: 111-106 Atlanta.

T.M. Selection: DENVER

Rough scheduling spot for Memphis here in a B2B and off a big home game versus the Timberwolves last night. They now had to travel to Denver and they are not only in B2B but 3rd game in 4 nights. Factor in also having to play in high altitude for this one and the set up is perfect for the Grizzlies to get rolled. The Nuggets are strong at home traditionally and are set up well here to dominate as they can build off a win at Sacramento which snapped their losing skid. We lay the points with confidence here.  

T.M. Prediction: 129-114 Nuggets.

T.M. Selection: NEW YORK KNICKS

Knicks getting 4.5 is a huge value here. New York is off a loss but does have Brunson back now.  The Knicks lost in OT to Boston so certainly no shame in that. New York is 5-1 last 6 times they have entered a game coming off a loss. The Pistons are also off a loss but they are slumping so it is hard to expect a bounce back from Detroit here. The Pistons have now lost 4 of 5 and the only win was against a Toronto team that is now 30-50 on the season. Detroit has its work cut out here just to win let alone cover the number here. Grab the points! 

T.M. Prediction: 116-112 Knicks.

T.M. Selection: Atlanta

Huge game for the SE Division title and love having the dog here. Both the Hawks and Magic have sights set on winning this division and Orlando is a little over-valued here as a result of being at home. The road team has actually won both games this season and it would not surprise me to see that run make it 3 straight for the road team here. Either way I like having the +4 points also plus Trae Young is listed as probable for this game so that is a plus for Atlanta as well. Orlando is off B2B wins but is actually 1-4 SU last 5 times when entering a game on a winning streak of at least 2 games. Orlando won at Atlanta in the 2nd meeting in February and now it is the Hawks turn to return the favor and win on the home floor of the  Magic. The situational run involving the Magic sees Orlando lose again and improve that "play against Magic" spot to 5-1 (83%). Grab the points! 

T.M. Prediction: 115-110 Atlanta

T.M. Selection: Oklahoma City

The Thunder have WON 18 of 19 games including 11 in a row. Oklahoma City has also won an incredible 11 straight road games! Each of their last 5 wins have been by at least 16 points so laying 6.5 points here means we are testing a 5-0 (100%) situation. Rockets might be without Dillon Brooks too unless he appeals his one-game suspension. The home team has won all 4 meeting this season but you know this game is priced this way per the odds makers strong assessment of this one. The Thunder roll on the road here as they continue to look like the most complete team in the NBA. The Rockets generally don't fare as well off blowout wins in which they score a ton of points and that is what just happened against a bad Jazz team Wednesday. Now they face the best team in the NBA and will possibly be without Brooks too and this should be a road rout the way I see it! Thunder make it 6 in a row in terms of wins by at least 7 points!

T.M. Prediction: 123-107 Oklahoma City

T.M. Selection: New York

Even though the Knicks are in a B2B they did not to go too hard to beat the downtrodden 76ers last night. Also, though Karl-Anthony Towns was out, this likely had to do more with resting him for tonight's game so his knee could be as strong as possible for tonight's game. Brunson is still out but NY has been adjusting well in his absence. Even if Towns does not play here, the Knicks should stay within single digits here but I do expect KAT to be out there. New York is 5-1 L6 games and has "only the Hawks" on deck and I expect the Knicks A-game here! The Cavaliers are only 4-5 SU last 9 games and if you look at Cleveland's last 17 games, only 4 were wins by double digits. This is too many points as the Knicks are likely viewing this as a statement game and also they have double revenge here.     

T.M. Prediction: 116-114 Cleveland

T.M. Selection: Golden State

Even though the Warriors won the most recent meeting they lost by 51 points here a little before Christmas. Golden State, as everyone knows, has been a much different team since the Butler trade. I am confident the Warriors come in here and get some revenge as Memphis is a mess since the crazy firing of their head coach. They have lost 3 straight games now and the Warriors come into this one having won 18 of 23 games. Two teams going in opposite direction and I am sure GS still wants some payback IN Memphis for that disaster in December. Big win here on the road!    

T.M. Prediction: 125-112 Golden State

T.M. Selection: Indiana Pacers

The Thunder are a great team but this is too many points. Indiana is 8-2 last 10 games and the only two losses were by a combined 8 points! The Pacers confidence sky high after scoring 162 points in a win over the Wizards in most recent game. Oklahoma City has plenty of big-margin wins recently but there was a SU loss and a couple tighter wins in there and I just can't see them completely destroying this Pacers team the way they have been playing. Also, Indiana lost at home to the Thunder in the first meeting between these teams and they are looking for some payback here. They may not quite get it but this one likely does go down to the wire so the points are a huge value. 

T.M. Prediction: 121-119 Oklahoma City

T.M. Selection: Golden State

The Warriors are angry off the embarrassing loss at Miami in Jimmy Butler's return there as the Heat shot a ridiculous 17 of 25 from deep! Now Golden State will take out their anger on a Pelicans team that will be missing both Williamson and McCollum here. New Orleans continues to give up huge points in their losses and Golden State will not only take advantage and score a ton (especially with Curry likely back) , the Warriors D will also be dialed up a notch after that loss at Miami. Big points to lay on the road but GSW should win this by 20+ points! 

T.M. Prediction: 123-100 Golden State

T.M. Selection: Dallas

The Mavericks could have Anthony Davis back on the floor again after he rested in the loss to the Knicks. Of course Davis is a huge difference-maker for Dallas. Even if he does not end up playing here I do feel the points are too generous. The Mavericks are catching at least a half-dozen points here and the Magic generally struggle to blow teams out as they are not a high-scoring team. Orlando has won 3 straight games but has not had a 4-game run since a big heater way back in November. The Mavericks are showing signs of life again and they will be a force to be reckoned with again here in a game that certainly has upset potential. 

T.M. Prediction: 111-108 Dallas

T.M. Selection: Phoenix

The Suns are at home and as strong as the Celtics are, they do seem over-valued here. Jayson Tatum is likely to miss as he is listed as doubtful for Boston for this one. Phoenix has won 6 straight home games so their confidence is back up. This one has upset written all over it. Boston might already be thinking ahead to a much-needed break as they have 3 off days coming up until they play at San Antonio for Saturday. As for today's game, it is the 3rd one for the Celtics in 4 days and I could see them running out of gas here in the fourth quarter. Home dog is the bet here! 

T.M. Prediction: 114-109 Phoenix

T.M. Selection: Denver

The Nuggets are at home and Jokic should be back as he listed as probable. Giannis might miss for Bucks as he is listed as questionable. Lillard is now out for the Bucks and likely to miss extended time. Spirits have to be hurting for Milwaukee with the new developments on the injury front while Denver happy to be getting Jokic back and should roll at home here. 

T.M. Prediction: 120-105 Denver

T.M. Selection: New Orleans

I was on the Pelicans yesterday and they got the cover though the fell short of the revenge for an ugly 46 point home loss earlier last week against the Pistons. The Pelicans have been dealing with injuries but professional pride kicks in big time here as they are back home in New Orleans and looking to get back to winning. McCollum had a huge game yesterday and Williamson could be back today. Speaking of injuries, this 76ers team is also in a B2B and their roster looks like a mash unit. Philly has been so bad for so long and on the road again in a B2B they will just not be able to hang around against a New Orleans team that is happy to be back home. Philadelphia on a 2-10 run with all 10 losses by at least 7 points. Another ugly one here for the Sixers. This game WILL NOT be decided by a single digit margin as the Pelicans roll here!

T.M. Prediction: 124-109 New Orleans

T.M. Selection: New Orleans

The Pelicans want revenge for an ugly 46 point home loss earlier in the week against the Pistons. The rematch is in Detroit and, other than the Pistons big win at New Orleans, it has been a 3-5 stretch for Detroit with only 1 win by more than a 7-point margin. The Pelicans have been dealing with injuries but professional pride kicks in big time after what the Pistons did to them in New Orleans. This game decided by a single digit margin. 

T.M. Prediction: 117-114 Detroit

T.M. Selection: Raptors.

The Raptors are catching too many points here. Toronto could get some guys back tonight after they missed yesterday's game. The Suns might be without Beal as he ended up leaving yesterday's game very early. Both teams in a B2B but the injury situation certainly seems to favor the Raptors here plus they are a big dog. This game likely to be decided by single digits and possibly even come down to the final possession. The Raptors are 6-2 L8 games and both losses by 3 or less points! That means at +4 points or more, Toronto would be 8-0 ATS last 8 games! The Suns have won only 6 of 21 games and, even if Phoenix wins this, it will likely be a small-margin win given how competitive the Raptors have been this entire month! 

T.M. Prediction: 115-112 Suns

T.M. Selection: Nets.

The Nets are catching too many points here. Cleveland is at home and rolling and having a huge season but Brooklyn off a win versus Lakers and confidence is up a bit based on recent competitive losses as well. The Nets are 8-9 SU last 17 games and only 2 of Brooklyn's last 19 games were losses by more than 18.5 points! Those 2 defeats were by 19 and 21 points. Cleveland wins here of course but falls short of covering this overly inflated number. The Cavaliers have won 14 in a row but only 5 of last 15 Cavs games have been wins by more than a 13 point margin so don't be shocked when a scrappy Brooklyn side hangs around in this one and possibly even keeps it to single digits. 

T.M. Prediction: 118-109 Cavaliers

T.M. Selection: Spurs.

Both teams in a B2B but the Spurs have the advantage of being at home and San Antonio plays this game with double revenge as well. Also, the Mavericks have been a mess ever since the Doncic trade. Davis is still out and now they lost Irving to that horrible injury as well. Dallas is simply severely short-handed right now which makes B2B spots like this even tougher. The Mavs have lost 7 of 8 games and all 7 losses were by a margin of at least 8 points! Spurs have struggled recently on the road but are 3-3 in their 6 most recent home games and all 3 wins were blowouts by double digits and that included wins over the Suns and Bucks. Considering that as well as how bad the Mavericks are playing, one can understand why I foresee another blowout is in the cards here! 

T.M. Prediction: 122-107 Spurs

T.M. Selection: Kings.

The Clippers are not only coming back from a hard-fought comeback win over the Knicks Friday, they face a surging Kings team that is playing with double revenge here. Sacramento has lost both games with the Clippers this season and is out for revenge in this one. The Kings are right behind the Clippers in the standings. Sacramento is 5-1 SU L6 games and the only loss was by just 6 points. The Clippers have won B2B games but this followed losses in 6 of 7 games. LA, in the B2B wins, was only up by 1 point against the Knicks entering the 4th and 2 points on the Pistons entering the 4th. They managed to pull away late in the 4th in both games but they face a much different challenge here as this Kings team is starting to jell and playing some of its best basketball of the season. This will be a payback game for Sacramento and the points are a solid value in case the Kings fall just short. 

T.M. Prediction: 112-108 Kings

T.M. Selection: Pistons.

The Warriors are not only coming back from a road trip, it was a long road trip and they just got back from all the way on the East Coast. The Pistons enter this game off a loss and are expected to have Tobias Harris back as well. That makes this is a super underdog spot. Detroit is 3-1 SU L4 when off a loss and the lone loss was by 3 points and that would equate to a win here since the line is 6.5 points. So this is a 4-0 spot for Detroit and Golden State will be gassed from all the travel and time back east. The Warriors have been hot but only 2 of most recent 5 games have been wins by more than 6 points. The Pistons have revenge here too because they lost at home to Golden State by 3 points earlier this season. This will be a payback game for Detroit.

T.M. Prediction: 118-115 Pistons

T.M. Selection: TIMBERWOLVES.

I'm expecting a "closer than most expect" battle here between these teams. Yes, Oklahoma City hung on to win yesterday's game by 7 at Minnesota and now have the edge of this game being at OKC. However, the Thunder shot ridiculously well from deep in the game Sunday. They made 19 of 35 three pointers. If they hit a normal rate of three pointers they would not have even won the game. Minnesota will likely still be down a couple players here but they will be even more determined here after a rather tight loss yesterday. The Thunder are on a roll but B2B spots are not easy to simply come in and blowout a team. This is particularly true when facing the same team in that B2B spot as well as facing a team that pushed you to the limit and whom arguably should have won the prior game. The Timberwolves will not be daunted by facing the the Thunder team again here and are hungry for revenge after last night's 3-point shooting clinic by OKC. You will see a different level of effort from the Wolves in the rematch. Grab the big points here as this one likely decided by only a bucket or two!

T.M. Prediction: 115-111 Oklahoma City.

T.M. Selection: Miami Heat.

I'm expecting an outright win for Miami here but am going to take the 5.5 points in this battle at Milwaukee. The Bucks have been winning lately but the margin of victory has often been very small. The Heat have some momentum again after a much needed OT win at Toronto on Friday. The Heat have put the Jimmy Butler saga in the rear view mirror and they are ready to make a run here late in the season. Tyler Herro is listed as probable for this game and the rest yesterday helped his shoulder. The Bucks have been shaky, at best, recently and they will struggle to win this game so a cover is nowhere close to guaranteed for Milwaukee either. The Bucks are only 5-6 last 11 games and the 5 wins by an average margin of 6 points while 5 of the 6 losses were by double digit margins. The home team is over-valued here and the Heat will be "in it to win it" here! Upset alert but at least a cover here! 

T.M. Prediction: 112-109 Miami.

T.M. Selection: Los Angeles Lakers.

I'm expecting a "closer than most expect" battle here between these teams. Yes, Denver has the better record and is at home and having a strong season. However, the Lakers are expecting to have Doncic and James both on the floor for this one and they will build off their win at Portland. Also, they have revenge from an embarrassing home loss by 25 points back around Thanksgiving. The Lakers have won 13 of 17 games and one of the four losses was by just 3 points. Tremendous value here with this spread in the +7 range. LA looks to return the favor of the beatdown at home to the Nuggets earlier this season. Though they might fall just short, this one goes down to the wire which makes the points invaluable. Don't be surprised if this one decided on the final possession. 

T.M. Prediction: 121-120 Denver.

T.M. Selection: Warriors.

The Warriors are in a B2B spot but will be ready to go here after the tight loss at Dallas. Of course the trip down to Houston from Dallas is also a very short road trip. Golden State, even if some players require rest in the B2B or have tweaked an injury, will have enough hands on deck to stay inside this inflated number. In fact, they might even get the outright upset here but I am going with the ATS side plus the points in this one. The Warriors, before yesterday's loss, had won B2B games. Golden State is 6-0 SU since early January when off a loss in which they scored at least 97 points but not more than 127 points.  The Rockets also in a B2B spot and have won B2B games but this followed 6 straight losses! Golden State won 2 of 3 meetings this season but lost the most recent one and now Warriors get revenge for the 1 point loss two months ago here in Houston. T.M. Prediction: 109-108 Warriors

T.M. Selection: Pacers

While I do think Indiana can win this game outright, in the end I'll recommend grabbing the points even if it is as low as +1.5 in case the Pacers fall a point short. With both teams off losses there is no question as to motivation here for either side and Indiana has gone 5-0 last 5 times when off a loss. Also, this series has been dominated by the home team. The host has one each of the two games so far this season and the host one each of the first six games in last season's 7-game thriller in the post-season! The Pacers also swept the regular season series last season and have won each of the last 5 meetings between these teams in Indiana. That said, the value is absolutely with the home side here. Home court has been a key in recent meetings between these teams and the Pacers are 6-1 L7 games at home with the only loss to a fantastic Cleveland team. The Knicks have recent losses to the Celtics and Lakers and have allowed 123 ppg last 4 games. New York will not be able to get enough key defensive stops to hold on in this game and the Pacers secure the win in the 4th quarter, if not sooner! The hungry home dog is the bet here. 

T.M. Prediction: 123-115 Indiana

T.M. Selection: Warriors.

I believe the Warriors will not only win this game easily, but do so in blowout fashion. This is a great spot for the Warriors and a tough spot for the Bucks. Milwaukee is in a B2B spot and got a big win over a bad Sixers team that, even with Embiid back on the floor, is as inconsistent as they come! The Bucks won the game thanks to 24 of 55 from deep as they thrived on 3-points yesterday. The Warriors got a big boost with the acquisition of Jimmy Butler and they are rested here and also are revitalized after the trade. They will be able to blowout this Bucks team here. Milwaukee is without Giannis and that makes a B2B spot like this even tougher to deal with. Milwaukee had lost 6 of 8 before yesterday's win! Golden State is a mediocre 7-6 last 13 games but most of the 6 losses to tougher teams than a Bucks  team without Giannis. Also, after acquiring Butler, there is a different vibe on this GS team and they will be ready here as they appear poised to make a surge with Butler on board. Look for the Warriors to keep their foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the points.

T.M. Prediction: 124-108 Warriors