T.M. Selection: Hoosiers.

I like Fernando Mendoza to easily outduel Carson Beck. The Hoosiers are a once in a life-time team and they're unstoppable right now on both ends of the field. Miami's defense came together at the correct time, but I think that Mario Cristobal's team is completely overmatched here. I like Indiana to win easily, with the Hurricanes tacking on a few meaningless points in garbage time; lay the points with confidence!

T.M. Prediction: 30-17 Indiana.

T.M. Selection: Miami/Ole Miss under.

Carson Beck and Trinidad Chambliss are two amazing and dynamic quarterbacks that each has the ability to take over a game and dominate, but I don't foresee that happening in this case whatsoever. The Hurricanes defense has conceded just 17 points combined over their two playoff wins and while Ole Miss is coming off a high-scoring 39-34 win over Georgia, note that the Rebels still only allow 20.4 PPG, which ranks 47th in the country. Whoever protects the ball and wins the field position and time of possession battles is going to come out on top in this one in my opinion and because of that, I love the way this one sets up to be a lower-scoring defensive battle; the play is on the under! 

T.M. Prediction: 24-21 Miami.

T.M. Selection: Miami/Ohio State.

The bottom line here is that I think there is a massive over-reaction by the public here because of how great these defenses are. And, they really are exceptional. However, to get to this point it's necessary to be elite on both sides of the ball, which these teams are as well. Miami averages 32.2 PPG, while Ohio State averages 34.9. Look for a faster pace to lead to plenty of scoring options and for this total to fly well over the number before the final horn sounds.

T.M. Prediction: 33-26 Ohio State.

T.M. Selection: UNLV.

Ohio is dealing with major off-field implications with its coach getting fired due to misconduct involved alcohol and minors. Players will be distracted, and some won't even want to be involved in this game because of it. UNLV finished 10-3 overall and while they can't stop anyone, Ohio doesn't put a lot of points on the board. Look for the Runnin' Rebels stability behind the bench and their superior offense to prove to be the difference-maker in this year's Frisco Bowl; lay the points with confidence on what sets up to be a prime situational play!

T.M. Prediction: 39-27 UNLV.

T.M. Selection: Ohio State.

When these teams played here last year, Ohio Sate won by a score of 38-15. I think we'll see a similar type contest unfold here as well. Indiana has a great offense, but it's going to stall facing the Nation's No. 1 defense. The old saying that "defense wins championships" could not be more true in this one, as I expect the Buckeyes relentless and smothering defensive unit to prove to be the difference-maker in this one; lay the points with confidence!

T.M. Prediction: 27-19 Ohio State.

T.M. Selection: UNLV.

UNLV managed to work its way into the Conference Championship Game and I'm expecting it to make the most of it. Boise State welcomes back Maddux Madsen under center, but one has to wonder if he's even back to 100% health. This is a contrarian pick for sure, with the majority of the public quick to back the the home side. I see UNLV getting revenge from the earlier loss in the season and while an outright win is possible, let's grab the points!

T.M. Prediction: 29-28 Boise State.

T.M. Selection: Texas A&M moneyline.

Just a great "situational" play here for us on this one. The Aggies are 11-0 and will be on a mission to expose Arch Manning, who has been consistently inconsistent all year. This is more a play against the Longhorns in this situation, as they continue to struggle in the big moments. Look for A&M to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and to enter the conference championship game with a perfect record; lay the price on the very reasonable moneyline option though!

T.M. Prediction: 31-20 Texas A&M.

T.M. Selection: Utah State.

The Aggies are 5-5 and they need just one more win to become bowl eligible. Amazingly, they're 0-5 on the road this year, but 3-2 ATS. Fresno State is 7-3 overall, including 4-1 at home. The Aggies close the year with a tough game at home against Boise State. Fresno is off consecutive wins and it plays a "cream puff" at SJSU to close the year. Despite going just 1-1 in their last two though, the Aggies have posted a combined 77 points over their last two games. Look for the hungrier visiting side to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire; grab the points!

T.M. Prediction: 27-23 Utah State.

T.M. Selection: Virginia Tech (5% ACC GOY)

I'm not going to call for an outright upset or anything, but I like the desperate Hokies to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Virginia Tech is 3-6 and it needs to win its remaining six games to become bowl eligible. While the odds are stacked against it now, with upcoming games against Miami and Virginia after this, Kyron Drones and the visitors are in "do or die" territory this weekend. Florida State is 4-5 and it needs two more wins. This is the final home game for the Seminoles, and they'll close the year with two extremely tough road games at NC State and Florida. FSU has been extremely inconsistent this year and I think it'll also somewhat get caught looking ahead. I just can't see the Seminoles running away with this one; grab the points with Virginia Tech! 

T.M. Prediction: 31-24 FSU.

T.M. Selection: Louisville moneyline.

I feel more comfortable laying the price here and just taking the Cardinals to win outright. Clemson is 4-5, but it has two "cream puffs" to close out the year, guaranteed victories against Furman and South Carolina. Clemson will sneak in through the back door for eligibility this season. But the Cardinals have bigger plans for the conference. They're off the 29-26 OT loss here to Cal as an 18.5-point favorite, but they'll just be extra focused now this weekend to deliver; and I expect them to do that!

T.M. Prediction: 31-20 Louisville.

T.M. Selection: Ohio.

The winner of this game will almost assuredly move on to the MAC title game. Ohio though has the superior offensive and defensive numbers. WMU only needs one more win to become bowl eligible, but with "cream puffs" against NIU and EMU to close out the year, the Broncos will have their opportunity still to punch their ticket; lay the point/s with confidence!

T.M. Prediction: 27-21 Ohio.

T.M. Selection: Hawaii.

In what I believe will be an extremely competitive battle, but when in which the home side has much more than just a "puncher's chance" in, I'm going to recommend to grab as many points as you can. Hawaii is 6-3 and off a 48-38 loss at San Jose State, but the last time the Warriors played at home they destroyed Utah State 44-26 as 1-point underdogs. Both teams are already bowl eligible and each is now looking to win the division. The Aztecs are 7-1 and off the 24-7 win at home over Wyoming, but last year they barely held on for the 27-24 win in this game. Look for another competitive battle to come "right down to the wire," and grab as many points as you can!

T.M. Prediction: 25-24 SDSU.

T.M. Selection: Northwestern.

Northwestern had its four game win streak come to an end last time out in a 28-21 loss at Nebraska as a 7-point dog. It's 5-3 and running out of chances to become eligible. I think Preston Stone will bounce back for the Wildcats against 6-2 USC, who looks poised for a letdown after holding on for the 21-17 win at Nebraska to move into bowl eligibility. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points!

T.M. Prediction: 27-24 USC.

T.M. Selection: Miami Ohio/Ohio under.

Both teams are 5-3 and desperate for a win here to become bowl eligible. Ohio won this game 38-3 last year, and a similar lower-scoring combined out come is expected this time around as well in my opinion. Look for a competitive battle to result in a lower-scoring "under." 

T.M. Prediction: 23-20 Ohio.

T.M. Selection: USC.

Nebraska is 6-2 and now eligible and I smell a "letdown" here vs. the 5-2 Trojans. USC is off the tough 34-24 loss at Notre Dame, but it's had a week off to prepare for this one. The Trojans won this game 28-20 last year, and I'm expecting an even bigger margin of victory this time around; lay the points with confidence!

T.M. Prediction: 37-21 USC.

T.M. Selection: Syracuse moneyline.

UNC is 2-5, and Syracuse is 3-5. Clearly, the odds of either even becoming eligible at this point is pretty high, but the odds do favor the Orange. And I believe they'll find a way to win this important game. In fact, with upcoming games at Miami and Notre Dame, this game, along with their regular-season finale against BC at home, will be the only realistic chances that the Orange have in earning two more wins this year. And so that does in fact make this a "must win" for Syracuse tonight. UNC has five games remaining, and it'll be an underdog in all of them. After back-to-back tight losses, I think a big letdown is in store for the visitors tonight; lay the price and take Syracuse on the moneyline to win outright!

WEEKEND WARRIOR FOOTBALL PASS PROMOTION: If you're looking for a great deal, then make sure to check out the Weekend Warrior Football pass for $49, you get every Saturday, Sunday and Monday "Football" pick from your selected expert.

T.M. Prediction: 27-19 Syracuse.

T.M. Selection: UTSA.

Tulane earned its third win in a row to move to 6-1 and to become eligible, and while it now has much bigger plans on its mind, a letdown is imminent in my estimation. The Green Wave did not cover in their 24-17 win over Army at home last week and I think they'll have difficulties covering the number here on the road against the hungry Road Runners, who are off the humbling 55-17 loss at North Texas. The last time they were at home though they smoked Rice 61-13 as 8-point favorites. UTSA fights tooth and nail here at home in this crucial spot as it's now just 3-4 and running out of time. I think Tulane also gets caught "looking ahead" to its game at Memphis next week; grab the points! 

T.M. Prediction: 28-27 Tulane.

T.M. Selection: MTSU.

I like the undervalued home side to play spoiler here, as Jacksonville State enters 4-3 and needing two more wins to become eligible. The Blue Raiders are coming off back-to-back ATS victories, and now they have a legit shot at winning outright; grab the points, but don't be shocked if an upset occurs!

T.M. Prediction: 28-27 JVST.

T.M. Selection: UTEP.

The odds of the Miners making a bowl are pretty much zero, but they'll be trying their best to play "spoiler" here, as Kennesaw State is 5-2 and needs just one more win for eligibility. Last year UTEP won this game at home in OT by a score of 43-35. The Owls have turned things around this season, but are in unchartered territory right here. I think they have big trouble trying to cover this big number. No outright, but much closer than expected, as this sets up as a great situational play on the UTEP!

T.M. Prediction: 27-24 Kennesaw State.

T.M. Selection: Wisconsin.

The total in this game is only 45.5, so the oddsmakers aren't expecting Wisconsin to score much, or any points at all in this one?! But I think the Badgers catch the Ducks at the "correct time," who get caught "looking ahad" to their bye week, before a game against Iowa; grab the points!

T.M. Prediction: 31-14 Oregon.

T.M. Selection: Georgia State.

In a contest that I see being decided by whichever of these 1-6 teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The Panthers have faced the more difficult schedule to this point. Each team has issues on both sides of the line, but the home field advantage tips the scales in favor of Georgia State here, despite them only being 1-3 ATS at home this year. Georgia State now undervalued; grab the points!

T.M. Prediction: 28-27 USA.

T.M. Selection: MTSU/Delaware under.

MTSU's offense has been predictable and one-dimensional, as it really doesn't have a run game. The last thing the visitors can do is turn this into a "shootout" with the home side though. Delaware's defense is underrated and their motivated here despite two straight losses. We can expect this mid-week Conference USA game to be extremely competitive, but lower-scoring in the end; the play is on the under!

T.M. Prediction: 27-19 Delaware.

T.M. Selection: Louisiana Tech.

WKU had a chance to punch eligibility at home over FIU last week as a ten-point fav, but the Hilltoppers fell flat in the 25-6 loss. Now I think they'll have trouble here on the road against a 4-2 LT team that's coming off a 35-7 loss at Kennesaw State as a 4.5-point underdog. The Bulldogs recover quicker here and take advantage of the home field surroundings where they are already 3-0 this season. Lay the points with confidence!

T.M. Prediction: 31-19 Louisiana Tech.

T.M. Selection: Penn State.

Penn State is 3-3 overall, while Iowa 4-2. This is a strategic play after Pat Kraft fired James Franklin on Sunday. In his place, Terry Smith, AKA T-Smalls, their assistant coach will step in as interim. Franklin was well liked and respected by Kraft, but the big game losses were just too much for the faithful to handle. We can now expect this team to respond with their best effort of the season so far. Iowa is off the 37-0 win at Wisconsin, but I think it will have difficulties with this Nittany Lions' defense. Freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer will be making his first career start for Penn State after Drew Allar went down with injury. The weather is likely to be nasty as well. Either way, in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points!

T.M. Prediction: 21-19 Penn State.

T.M. Selection: Nebraska (BIG TEN GOM).

Nebraska is 5-1 SU, but it's 0-3 ATS in its last three. The combination of its superior offense and defense will prove to be too much for the 4-2 Gophers in my opinion. Minnesota has also done poorly for bettors this year, but note that looking back finds the Huskers 4-1 ATS in their last five after three or more ATS losses in a row. With a chance to punch their eligibility in this favorable matchup, I look for the visitors to do just that!

T.M. Prediction: 29-17 Nebraska.

T.M. Selection: Tulsa.

ECU is overvalued by at least a TD in this matchup in my opinion. The Pirates are 3-3, but they had their hands full with the Golden Hurricane last year, holding on for the 38-31 win. With their bye next week, I believe the home side takes the foot off the gas. Tulsa is just 2-4 and off a 45-7 loss at Memphis. In its previous road game it beat Oklahoma State 19-12 as a 10-point dog and I'm expecting another competitive effort here as well; grab as many points as you can!

T.M. Prediction: 30-24 ECU.

T.M. Selection: Sam Houston State.

SHSU is 0-6 and it won't be playing in a bowl game unless it can sweep the remaining schedule. Obviously, that won't be happening. But it came close in its last time to a victory, falling 29-27 at home to Jacksonville State. But they've also faced some really tough competition, but now they're undervalued here at home. UTEP should not be favored here, it's 1-5 and terrible on the road. Look for the home side to come out with a victory, but the official call is to grab as many points as you can!

T.M. Prediction: 24-23 SHSU.

T.M. Selection: New Mexico State.

New Mexico State comes in "under the radar" here. Logan Fife has the ability to keep this one competitive for the visitors. Liberty won 30-24 on the road in this matchup last year, and everything points to another very competitive battle this season as well in my opinion, as Liberty continues to struggle with offensive consistency; grab the points!

T.M. Prediction: 24-23 Liberty.

T.M. Selection: Boston College.

Clemson is 2-3 and BC is 1-4. I'll argue though that BC has so far faced the much stiffer and more difficult schedule to this point. The Tigers managed a 38-10 win over a terrible UNC team last week, but previous to that they lost against Georgia Tech and Syracuse as a favorite. I'm not reading too much into the Tigers win over the Tar Heels. Boston College destroyed Fordham 66-10 as a 35-point favorite in Week 1, and then it lost four straight. 42-40 in OT at Michigan State, 30-20 at Stanford, 28-24 at Cal and then 48-7 at Pittsburgh. Neither team has lived up to expectations this year, but Clemson's done nothing on the field of play to deserve to be this big of a favorite on the road for a conference matchup against a desperate Eagles team. The Tigers have a more difficult game at home against SMU next week as well which they could be caught looking ahead to. No outright, but look for the hungry home side to comfortably cover in this great situational play on Boston College!

T.M. Prediction: 31-24 Clemson.

T.M. Selection: USF/UNT under.

Oddsmakers are pointing towards a ton of offense, but I think these sides will play to a lower-scoring final combined outcome on Friday. USF is 4-1 and it's scored a combined 117 points over its last two victories, but now this line is out of proportion. UNT is off a 36-22 home win over USA and I the Mean Green's defense is underrated. It's offense is appropriately rated. It's a big game, but expect a lower-scoring "under" once it's all said and done!

T.M. Prediction: 28-27 UNT.

T.M. Selection: Kennesaw State.

With the majority going one way with this one, I'm going the other. Louisiana Tech is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS and the majority of the public is quick to back the Bulldogs as a sizeable favorite here on the road, but with their bye-week next week, followed by a home game against currently 5-0 WKU, not only does this set up as a classic "letdown" spot for the visitors, but also a "look-ahead," and when you add those two situational factors together you get "trap game." The Bulldogs lost to LSU, their only game as an underdog, and won their other four as a favorite, but nobody of note. Kennesaw State is 3-2 SU/ATS, and that includes going 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS at home. The Owls have faced the much more difficult schedule as well. Instead of looking ahead to their bye-week next week as well, I expect the home side to come in focussed on the task at hand and while I do think an outright victory is possible, my official call is to grab as many points as you can with KENNESAW STATE.

T.M. Prediction: 24-21 Kennesaw State.

T.M. Selection: Liberty/UTEP over.

I base my picks on many different things. Some games I look at individual player matchups, while others I'm looking at the contest from a completely "situational" angle. And that's the case with this total between Liberty and UTEP on Wednesday. Both teams are 1-4 and in desperate need of a victory to keep any short of Bowl appearance alive. Liberty is off a 21-7 loss at ODU, but now it faces UTEP, which lost 30-11 here to Louisiana Tech last time out. The Miners have faced some stuff competition, including opening the year at Utah State, playing at Texas and last week's home game as an underdog against Louisiana Tech. But now the Miners will face an opponent in a similar boat and which will have to push the pace as well. These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games, but the overall situation finally points to a "shootout" between these hungry sides in my opinion; the play is on the "over! 

T.M. Prediction: 30-27 Liberty.

T.M. Selection: Boise State/Notre Dame UNDER.

Both teams have explosive offenses, but that doesn't necessarily mean this will be a high-scoring affair between two non-conference opponents. The Irish are massive favorites and won't be in any danger of actually losing this game at any point. Or at least they shouldn't be. The Irish have two more at home against NC State and USC after this, while Boise State also returns home for two in a row against New Mexico and UNLV. The Broncos offense has looked pretty good in three straight wins over Eastern Washington, Air Force and Appalachian State, but it looked terrible in its 34-7 loss at USF at the start of the season. And now they're facing an Irish defense that just held Arkansas to 13 points on the road as 4.5-point favorites. I don't see Notre Dame keeping the foot on the gas from start to finish, but instead cruising to victory over the second half, while everything points to Broncos' coach Spencer Danielson and company just happy to be playing here on Saturday: "As a football fan, which we all are, and even me growing up in Southern California, Notre Dame's a team that you watch consistently year in and year out," Danielson said. "I mean, from 'Rudy' to South Bend to Touchdown Jesus, there's so much amazing history tied to Notre Dame. And I've never been there. I'm fired up as a coach. And so, we're going to be able to see the stadium the day before and go through it. Because I want, by the time we get to kickoff, it's time to go play football. They've got really good players. I believe in our players, too." Look for this to be a much more defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe; the play is on the under!

T.M. Prediction: 35-14 Notre Dame.

T.M. Selection: Clemson.

Both teams are in search of their first wins against a Power 4 opponent, and I think that Clemson is onw finally in line to get the job done. In setback to TCU and UCF, North Carolina lost by an average of 30 points. The Tigers have yet to live up to their talent, but Clemson is still loaded with talent. I think Dabo Swiney's guys use this matchup as a "get right" game and hammer this porous UNC defense; lay the points!

T.M. Prediction: 35-13 Clemson.

T.M. Selection: New Mexico/SJSU under.

I base my picks on many different things, and this particular one is just a great overall "situational" play in my opinion. New Mexico is 3-1 and San Jose State is 1-3. The Spartans are coming off the 30-29 loss at Stanford, while the Lobos are off the 38-20 win at New Mexico State. The Aggies have struggled with offensive consistency on the road and I think that despite both of these sides playing to several higher-scoring games, the value has now swung the other way as far as the total is concerned. The play is on the "under."

T.M. Prediction: 24-21 SJSU.

T.M. Selection: Sam Houston State/New Mexico State UNDER.

I base my picks on many different things, but this particular one here between Sam Houston State and New Mexico State is just a great overall "situational" play in my opinion as far as the total is concerned and for this being a lower-scoring "under" once it's all said and done. New Mexico State is now 2-2 after back-to-back losses, including a 38-20 loss at New Mexico last time out. The Aggies lost this game 31-11 at Sam Houston State last season and I think they'll have a difficult time moving the ball this season as well. The Bearkats are 0-4 SU/ATS after a 55-0 loss at Texas last time out. Three of four games for Sam Houston have flown above the number as well, but now they Bearkats are finally favored for the first time this season. The winner of this game will be the one that creates turnovers and limits mistakes. While plenty of their games have so far flown "over" the number, I say the value has now swung the other way as far as the total is concerned.

T.M. Prediction: 24-21 SHSU.

T.M. Selection: Arizona State moneyline.

TCU is 3-0 and looks good, but its level of competition needs to be taken into account. ASU's only loss was a 24-20 setback at Mississippi State, but it's bounced back with consecutive wins and covers, most recently getting the betting of Baylor by a score of 27-24 as a 3-point dog. Look for home field advantage to prove to be critical in the outcome of this one.

T.M. Prediction: 31-24 Arizona State.

T.M. Selection: Army/ECU under.

Short and simple here: Army vs. ECU's Thursday night clash stays under 51.5, due to Army's run-heavy, clock-killing triple option which will limit possessions; also note that ECU's defense give up just 87 rushing yards/game. Low-scoring recent trends persist - the bottom line here is to expect a competitive battle to translate into a lower-scoring final combined total.

T.M. Prediction: 24-19 ECU.

T.M. Selection: Michigan State.

Michigan State is 3-0 SU and 0-3 ATS. I believe it'll be 3-1 SU and 1-3 ATS when it leaves USC late on Saturday night. Despite their defense struggling, the Spartans have posted 83 points over their last two games. MSU has its by week next week, while USC has a big game at Illinois next weekend. I say this one favors the high-scoring Spartans, who I believe can keep pace with the home side down the stretch; a great "situational" play, grab the points!

T.M. Prediction: 31-24 USC.

T.M. Selection: Iowa moneyline.

Iowa is off a commanding 47-7 win over UMass, and I predict another comfortable win and cover here as well on Friday in these team's first Big 10 action. Rutgers is off to a 3-0 start, and coming off a 60-10 home win over Norfolk State. Now everyone is quick to back the Scarlet Knights and their shiny record, but I think Iowa's stout defense and grind it out run game will be too much for the home side to handle down the stretch. Quarterback Mark Gronowski is off his best performance yet and I see further progression in this important Friday night contest. Let's bypass the spread and instead take Iowa on the reasonable moneyline option!

T.M. Prediction: 27-14 Iowa.

T.M. Selection: Rice moneyline.

Rice Owls (2-1) enter their AAC road opener as favorites against the Charlotte 49ers (1-2), poised to win and cover convincingly. Rice's balanced attack thrives under new coach Scott Abell, with QB Chase Jenkins amassing 326 total yards and 3 TDs in a 38-17 rout of Prairie View A&M last time out. Run-heavy RB Quinton Jackson has exploded for 200+ yards early, exploiting Charlotte's porous defense that yielded 382 passing yards in a 42-35 FCS win over Monmouth last time out. The 49ers' losses to App State and UNC (20-3) expose vulnerabilities against mobile QBs like Jenkins. On a short week, Rice's stingy D—under 300 yards allowed per game—stifles Harrell's arm, securing a victory and easy cover.

T.M. Prediction: 27-17 Rice.

T.M. Selection: Duke.

Duke's dynamic quarterback Darian Mensah, transferring from Tulane, returns to Yulman Stadium with intimate knowledge of the Green Wave's schemes, which I expect to really help his performance. Despite a 1-1 start, I think Duke's defense rebounds here after last week's 45-19 home loss to Illinois, to do more than enough to neutralize Tulane's rebuilt offense, now adjusting to new QB Jake Retzlaff. The Blue Devils have enjoyed considerable success in this matchup in the past and all signs point to another win and cover here in my opinion.

T.M. Prediction: 30-21 Duke.

T.M. Selection: UCLA.

Despite an 0-2 start, the Bruins boast superior talent, led by QB Nico Iamaleava's improving command (255 yards, 2 TDs last game). At home in the Rose Bowl, UCLA is going to control and dominate New Mexico's porous defense (28 PPG allowed). I'm expecting a blowout.

T.M. Prediction: 37-14 UCLA.

T.M. Selection: Colorado.

I like Deion Sanders and the Buffs to find a way to win this game outright, but that said, my official call is to grab as many points as you can. Sanders has a few different capable quarterbacks at his disposal, including Ryan Staub and Kaidon Salter. The Cougars are 2-0 after a 35-9 win over Rice. Before that it was a 27-0 win ver Stephen A Austin. I think Sanders will have "something up his sleeve" this weekend; grab the points!

T.M. Prediction: 23-22 Colorado.

T.M. Selection: NC State.

I think that NC State will not only win this game at Wake Forest on Thursday, but I expect it to win big time. Because of that, I'll be laying the points. It's  tough spot for both teams playing on the short week, but I think the Wolfpack are better suited to make the necessary adjustments. NC State is 2-0, and it's been in two wars to win each. Wake Forest is 2-0 as well, but it's only faced Kennesaw State and Western Carolina. Look for the Wolfpack to carry over its momentum here to a convincing victory and lay the points with confidence!

T.M. Prediction: 35-18 NC State.

T.M. Selection: Michigan

Michigan’s chances of covering the spread, and likely even winning outright against Oklahoma, hinge on key players. True freshman QB Bryce Underwood, who threw for 251 yards and a touchdown in his debut, brings poise and playmaking ability, testing Oklahoma’s secondary. Running back Justice Haynes, with three touchdowns against New Mexico, anchors a potent ground game that can is going to be able to take advantage of Oklahoma’s weaker run defense (103 yards allowed in Week 1). Defensively, freshman edge Nate Marshall’s disruptive pressure is what the visitors will need to rattle OU’s John Mateer, whose one-dimensional passing attack will struggle against this aggressive Wolverines' secondary. Michigan’s balanced offense and defensive upside give it the edge. Grab the points.

T.M. Prediction: 24-21 Michigan.

T.M. Selection: Kentucky.

Kentucky will comfortably cover the spread against Ole Miss at home in my opinion this afternoon due to its stout defense and physical running game. The Wildcats’ defense excels at pressuring quarterbacks and limiting big plays, which I foresee disrupting Ole Miss’s high-powered offense led by new quarterback Austin Simmons, who showed turnover tendencies in his debut. Kentucky’s home-field advantage at Kroger Field, combined with its ability to control tempo through a strong rushing attack (221 yards against Toledo), will keep the game closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Historical trends favor Kentucky covering large SEC spreads at home, making it the correct call here at home.

T.M. Prediction: 26-24 Ole Miss.

T.M. Selection: James Madison.

The James Madison Dukes are going to cover with the spread against the Louisville Cardinals on Friday in my opinion, as JMU’s run-heavy offense, led by George Pettaway (99 yards, Week 1) and a dual-QB system with Alonza Barnett III and Matthew Sluka, exploits Louisville’s vulnerability to mobile quarterbacks. The Dukes’ experienced defense, potentially starting seven seniors, held Weber State to 148 yards and snagged three interceptions. Louisville’s turnover issues (three in Week 1) and 12 penalties expose weaknesses. JMU has a history of competing with well with ACC teams. Louisville comes out flat in my opinion; grab the points, the ay is on JMU!

T.M. Prediction: 31-24 Louisville.

T.M. Selection: Notre Dame.

Notre Dame is going to cover the spread against Miami tonight due to key situational advantages. Note that coming off a National Championship appearance, the Fighting Irish boast a battle-tested roster with superior depth and continuity under coach Marcus Freeman. Their elite defense, led by Chris Ash, will exploit Miami’s rebuilt receiving corps and pressure quarterback Carson Beck, who’s coming off UCL surgery. Notre Dame’s dominant run game, powered by Jeremiyah Love, is also going to control the clock against Miami’s aggressive but untested defense. Playing in the humid, high-energy Hard Rock Stadium, Notre Dame’s experience in big games gives it the edge.

T.M. Prediction: 30-21 Irish.

T.M. Selection: Texas/Ohio State over.

The Texas-Ohio State game is going to soar well "over" the total due to both teams’ offensive firepower and defensive vulnerabilities. Texas, led by Arch Manning, boasts a potent passing attack (40 TDs last season) and a balanced offense averaging 33 points per game. Ohio State’s high-powered offense, with a 70.8% completion rate and 5.4 yards per carry (last season), thrives on explosive plays. While both defenses are stout, Texas’ green receivers and Ohio State’s new quarterback, Julian Sayin, will almost assuredly lead to early mistakes, opening the door for big plays the other way. Expect a high-scoring affair as both teams push the pace.

T.M. Prediction: 30-27 Ohio State.

T.M. Selection: Auburn moneyline.

Both teams have a bunch of new faces on both sides of the ball, but Auburn is still bigger on both lines. It has the deeper overall team and comes from the more difficult conference. I think Jackson Arnold will be a great game manager here and do just enough to get the job done. This is a huge game for Huge Freeze. Look fro the Tigers to get off on the "right foot" in Week 1!

T.M. Prediction: 34-24 Auburn.

T.M. Selection: ECU (4%)

ECU beat NC State 26-21 as a seven-point dog in the Military Bowl last year. Both teams have gone through plenty of changes in the off-season, and while we're not calling for another outright upset this year, I believe that there are enough pieces in place for the Pirates to once again give the Wolfpack a run for its money; grab the points!

T.M. Prediction: 33-27 NC State.

T.M. Selection: Stanford.

Stanford opened as the favorite in this one and while the Cardinal are once again expected to struggle in the ACC this year, it's still a big step up in competition for a Warriors team that's supposed to be in the middle of the pack in the Mountain West. I think Ben Gulbranson will keep the offense moving and the deeper team will eventually grind out the win. That said, let's grab the points!

T.M. Prediction: 27-24 Stanford.

T.M. Selection: Kansas State moneyline.

This game is being played at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland. It's the first game of the year. Both teams went through plenty of off-season changes, but Iowa State more so, especially at the wide receiver position. I say we bypass the spread option here and instead play K-State on the very reasonable moneyline option. Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht had a group of NFL-caliber receivers last year, but he has a bunch of new faces to throw to this season. Becht remains a bright spot on offense for Iowa State, finishing with 3,505 yards, 25 TDs and nine INTs last year, while also running for 318 yards and eight more TD's. But I think the clear advantage goes to K-State QB Avery Johnson, who finished with 2,712 passing yards, 25 TD's and 10 INT's last year, while also running for 605 yards and eight other TDs. K-State had less significant turnover and that's going to pay immediate dividends here in this neutral location to open up the season; the play is Kansas State on the moneyline!

T.M. Prediction: 30-20 K-State.

T.M. Selection: Buckeyes / Fighting Irish - OVER 

I am on the OVER in the Ohio State Buckeyes vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish game on Monday, January 20th. Notre Dame is 14-1 this season and has scored at least 23 points in all 14 wins. Ohio State is 13-2 this season and scored at least 28 points in 12 of 15 games. This total is simply too low here. With all due respect to each one of these teams from a defensive viewpoint, the offenses are not getting the credit they deserve either. Although Ohio State has the better passing attack, the fact remains both of these teams are quite balanced offensively. Notre Dame as well as the Buckeyes both have solid ground games on offense. The rushing attack of each will open up opportunities for some bigger plays through the air. The last two meetings between these teams only totaled 31 points each in 2023 and 2022. But Ohio State has scored an average of 38 points in its last 6 wins and Notre Dame is averaging 37 ppg this season. Give me the OVER. 

T.M. Prediction: 31-23 Ohio State. 

Line: O/U 45 

Line Parameter: play until 48.5...

T.M. Selection: Ohio State / Texas - UNDER 

I am on the UNDER in the Texas Longhorns vs Ohio State Buckeyes game on Friday, January 10th. With how strong both of these defenses are, both of these offenses will struggle. Both defensive units are strong against the pass and I expect a lot of running play calls with both offensive units for this bowl game. We absolutely should see an emphasis on the rushing attack so the clock should be running for most of this game. Each defense is strong enough to hold their opponent to only a few scoring drives and, by that, I mean including field goals. The Longhorns, excluding OT points, have allowed an average of only 13.6 points per game this season. The Buckeyes are allowing only 12 ppg this season. Even if you had a TD to that number and evening adding 10 points to the Texas points allowed total, you still arrive at a 24-19 final. That is what I am calling for here, as you can see with my prediction below, and you can understand why this is such a strong play given the extra cushion we have with these numbers. Simply put, neither team has been giving up many points in almost all their games this season. Defensive struggle ensues here. Give me the UNDER. 

T.M. Prediction: 24-19 Ohio State. 

Line: O/U 53.5 

Line Parameter: play until 56.0...

T.M. Selection: PENN STATE - ATS

1) I like the Nittany Lions to get the solid underdog cover in this game against the Fighting Irish on Thursday, January 9th. The line looks like a trap line to take the team with the better 11-3 ATS record laying only 1.5 points even though they just beat Georgia and are facing an 8-7 ATS team. As for the trap, I am not falling for it!

2) The Irish are now 13-1 this season but statistically I have concerns about what this offense will be able to do against a stout Penn State defense. Though Notre Dame beat Georgia, the stats were not good and they made the most of other opportunities to secure that win. They did not impress on offense and face just as tough of a test here.    

3) Penn State has the better offense here in my opinion and is very balanced on offense. The Nittany Lions defense also has been very opportunistic. Notre Dame has been a cash cow this season so the markets are enamored with them and supporting them. The Fighting Irish, however, have met their match here and I look for Allar to lead the way at QB for the Lions to pull away in crunch-time of this game.  

T.M. Prediction: 27-20 PENN STATE

Line: +1.5

T.M. Selection: Minnesota Golden Gophers - ATS

1) I like the Golden Gophers to get the solid win in this game against the Hokies on Friday, Januay 3rd. The line looks like a trap line to take the team with the nearly identical record as 6-6 Virginia Tech is nearly a double digit underdog (currently 8.5 to 9.5) against Minnesota and I am not falling for the trap line! Lay the big points here. 

2) Virginia Tech facing a tough match-up here as they have a lot of opt-outs and will be missing many starters on both sides of the ball. The Hokies struggled overall this season as it was and now will be very short-handed against a Golden Gophers team that is known for dominating in Bowl Season. 

3) PJ Fleck, head coach of Minnesota, has great bowl history and has led his team to 5 straight bowl wins. The Golden Gophers roster is mostly intact for this bowl game and in far better shape roster-wise in comparison with a depleted Hokies side. Virginia Tech has big question marks at QB and the offensive line is a shell of what it once was and the Hokies also will be without their top RB. Also the Hokies defense has been decimated by the transfer portal. The Gophers average margin of victory in their 7 wins was 19.6 ppg this season! The Hokies get blown out here. 

T.M. Prediction: 31-12 Minnesota.

Line: -8.5

T.M. Selection: Georgia Bulldogs - Moneyline 1) I like the Georgia Bulldogs to win this game handily against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Wednesday, January 1st. The line is in the -1 to -1.5 range and for my money the better value is therefore with the money line in the -115 range. 2) Georgia QB Stockton is highly touted and it is good he already got some game action replacing the injured Beck. Also, the Bulldogs faced the tougher schedule this season plus they got a number of big game wins over solid programs. Georgia has the better special teams edge with a huge edge in the kicking game. That could be a key if this game ends up being tighter than I expect. 3) The Fighting Irish are, of course, a high-quality program but they did not face as tough a schedule. Also, they suffered a key injury with a star defensive tackle now out for this game after getting hurt versus Indiana. Notre Dame did look great in that game but Georgia is no Indiana. The Hoosiers were over-rated all season long. Things get much tougher here for the Fighting Irish and the value is with the Bulldogs and their championship pedigree. T.M. Prediction: 28-17 Georgia. Line: +102

T.M. Selection: Nittany Lions vs Broncos - OVER

I am on the OVER in the Penn State Nittany Lions vs Boise State Broncos game on Tuesday. The Nittany Lions favored by 11 but the speed of this Broncos offense is going to keep them in this game. I just don't see Penn State being able to fully slow them down. At the same time, the Nittany Lions offense is also a force to be reckoned with. Considering the weaker overall schedule Boise State faced, the Broncos defense is sure to struggle to stop this Penn State offense. The Nittany Lions have scored 38 ppg last 6 games and I expect them to reach that total again here. Penn State, prior to the big win over SMU, allowed 45 points to Oregon. That is the same Ducks team that Boise State scored 34 points against so the Broncos have already proven they can go "toe to toe" with the big boys in the nation. That said, I do expect Boise State's defense to have problems here like they did against Oregon and a few other teams early this season. But the Bronco State offense should make up for that with team speed and the best player, running back Jeanty, on the field in this one! 

T.M. Prediction: 38-27 Penn State

Line: O/U 53.5

T.M. Selection: Army.

I believe Army will not only win this game easily, but do so in blowout fashion. Louisiana Tech finished only 5-7 on the season and is in a very unusual situation here! The Bulldogs got recruited into this bowl on short notice because Marshall was so heavily hit in the transfer portal that the Thundering Herd could not even properly compete in this game. I am not so sure Louisiana Tech is going to have much more success than Marshall would have had considering their situation. The Bulldogs thought their season was over and then suddenly got called to this game and they have to, on short notice, figure out how they will defend the triple option of Army. That is not something Louisiana Tech is used to facing. So Army is in top form and ready to roll here too and they have a great defense. Almost all of the Black Knights wins have been by at least 17 points this season. The Bulldogs did perform well as an underdog this season but this is a very tough match-up for them and I am sure they want to make up for that loss to Navy by winning big in this bowl game. Louisiana Tech finished the season with a big win over Kennesaw State but scored 14 or less points in 4 of 5 games before that and their D also will not be able to stop Army. Look for the Black Knights to keep their foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the points.

T.M. Prediction: 35-10 Army

T.M. Selection: USC TROJANS - ATS

1) I like the Trojans to get the solid underdog cover in this game against the Aggies on Friday, December 27th. The line looks like a trap line to take Texas A & M laying only 4.5 or 4 points even though they are facing a team that has a had a lot of opt-outs heading into this post-season battle. As for the trap, I am not falling for it!

2) The Aggies defense got ripped down the stretch including allowing over 470 ypg in their last 3 games against SEC teams. The Texas A & M defense also dealing with some key opt-outs and the Trojans offense surely will take advantage. 

3) The USC offense, even dealing with opt-outs, is still a strong machine. They put up over 550 yards of offense when they faced Notre Dame and that says a lot for sure! Southern Cal outgained ND by over 100 yards in that 49-35 loss. This Trojans team better than their 6-6 records shows while the Aggies, though 8-4, got waxed by double digits 3 times this season including when they got outgained by more than 100 yards by the Fighting Irish. I don't trust this Aggies team. 

T.M. Prediction: 28-24 USC

Line: +4.5 

T.M. Selection: Spartans vs Bulls - OVER

I am on the OVER in the San Jose State Spartans vs South Florida Bulls game on Tuesday. The Spartans have a strong passing attack and this will force the Bulls to keep up here. San Jose State scored 34 points in their season finale and though they had some lower-scoring efforts before that those two games were against ranked teams, UNLV and Boise State. The Spartans Eget has thrown for at least 385 yards in 3 of the last 4 games. San Jose State does not have much of a ground game so the passing attack will be the emphasis and that also equates to higher-scoring games. The Bulls won 4 of their last 6 games and South Florida averaged 39 ppg scored in those 6 games. 5 of those 6 games got to at least 60 points and this one, considering the passing attack of San Jose State, should push well past the 60 point mark as the pass defense of South Florida is a weakness. Overall the San Jose State defense is not great either and the Spartans are facing a balanced South Florida attack here.

T.M. Prediction: 39-35 San Jose State

Line: O/U 63.5

T.M. Selection: Penn State Nittany Lions - ATS

1) I like the Nittany Lions to get the solid win in this game against the Mustangs on Saturday, December 21st. The line looks like a trap line to take the team with the identical record as nearly a double digit underdog (currently 8.5 to 9.5) and I am not falling for it!

2) SMU facing a tough match-up here on the road in cold weather against a PSU side that can run the ball so well and is known for fantastic defense. The Mustangs were down by 17 to Clemson before rallying and they won't be able to make that same type of comeback in this venue! . 

3) Penn State was truly so close to a perfect season as they blew an early 10-0 lead versus Ohio State and also very nearly beat Oregon in a high-scoring shootout. The Nittany Lions so strong in the trenches and this is not a good match-up for the Mustangs. Penn State can play with (and win with) old Big Ten style football here. Their defense will frustrate SMU and the Mustangs will not be able to trade scores with the potent Nittany Lions here in their own home.    

T.M. Prediction: 37-17 Penn State.

Line: -8.5

T.M. Selection: Florida Gators - ATS

1) I like the Gators to get the solid win in this game against the Green Wave on Friday, December 20th. The line looks like a trap line to take the team with the better record as a double digit underdog (currently 10 to 10.5) and I am not falling for it!

2) Tulane struggled late in the season and there is a certain negative energy within this team right now. Florida, on the other hand, finished the season strong and I love the fact the Gators faced the much tougher schedule this season in comparison with the Green Wave. 

3) Tulane has lost two straight games and has given up at least 34 points in all 4 of their defeats this season. The Gators roll here as they are so strong at the defensive line and Tulane is going to struggle to run the ball here. The Green Wave offense just won't have enough punch here and Florida will have too much for Tulane to keep up in this one. The Gators have won 3 straight games and 4 of their 5 losses were to ranked teams this season and the other defeat was to a solid A & M team. Florida allowed only 16 ppg in their 7 wins and can dominate here.     

T.M. Prediction: 35-14 Florida.

Line: -10

T.M. Selection: James Madison vs Western Kentucky - OVER I am on the OVER in the James Madison vs Western Kentucky game on Wednesday. The Dukes are favored by a TD here and that is with the knowledge of their QB situation. That is why I expect plenty of points here because the Hilltoppers starting QB is projected to play and this team can move the ball consistently well for long stretches. I look for that to be the case in this game and that will force James Madison to respond and they still have the talent on offense to do so. The Dukes rushing attack will give the rather weak Western Kentucky defense issues here. The Dukes - and I am excluding the Double-OT points from season finale - averaged scoring 33 points per game this season. The Hilltoppers gave up 52 points in their most recent game and this followed an 8-3 run with Western Kentucky scoring 29 points a game on average in those 11 games. With numbers like this I am all over the value with this total coming down to near 50 after being in the mid-fifties originally. T.M. Prediction: 34-27 James Madison Line: O/U 51

T.M. Selection: Memphis vs West Virginia - OVER 

I am on the OVER in the Memphis vs West Virginia game on Tuesday. The Tigers pass defense struggled in the latter half of the season. The Mountaineers have a strong running game so this will also help to open up opportunities for West Virginia to take advantage of the Memphis weakness in pass D as that defense will have to worry about the run as well. The Mountaineers pass defense is also questionable as well. West Virginia struggled with pass defense much of the year plus, overall, the Mountaineers defense really fell apart late in the season over the final 4 games or so. This one looks like one without many stops for the defenses. The Tigers allowed 30 ppg last 6 games and scored 39 ppg last 6 games. The Mountaineers allowed 36 ppg last 6 games and scored 32 ppg L4 games before that horrible final game at Texas Tech which was likely the final straw for Coach Neal Brown who was fired after that game.

T.M. Prediction: 37-31 Memphis 

Line: O/U 58.5

T.M. Selection: CLEMSON - ATS

1) I like the Tigers to get the solid underdog cover in this game against the Mustangs on Saturday, December 7th. The line looks like a trap line to take the team with the better record laying only 2.5 points even though they are 11-1 and facing a 9-3 team. As for the trap, I am not falling for it!

2) The Mustangs are now 11-1 this season but the location of this game favors the Tigers. Also, Clemson has much more experience in big games and has won 8 of 9 visits to the ACC Title game! Also Clemson actually won the yardage battle by almost 100 yards in their only ACC loss this season so that was a deceiving final score.    

3) SMU was also a bit fortunate in who they faced in terms of their ACC scheduling this season. That certainly helped the Mustangs get to their impressive record on the year and now you will see many lining up on SMU, with the better record, over Clemson but the Tigers experience edge will shine through as this game gets to late-game crunch time. 

T.M. Prediction: 31-24 CLEMSON

Line: +2.5

T.M. Selection: UNLV Rebels vs Boise State Broncos - OVER 

I am on the OVER in the UNLV Rebels at Boise State Broncos game on Friday. The Rebels, in their last 10 games against everyone other than Boise State, have scored an average of 41.3 ppg. UNLV is seeking revenge here for the 29-24 loss versus the Broncos in Vegas in late October. I am convinced the Rebels will score better in the rematch here in the Championship Game for the MWC. However, I am not convinced they will be able to stop this potent Broncos offense! Boise State has scored an average of 47 ppg in their home games this season! The weather will be decent in Boise for this one which is also a positive for the over. Cold weather in Idaho but probably no precipitation as well as light winds. It sets up well for both offenses to "go off" in this one and have huge performances. Though it is a conference championship game, the strength of each team here is a very potent offense. This one should develop into a back and forth shootout because of this key factor. 

T.M. Prediction: 38-34 Boise State. 

Line: O/U 57.5

T.M. Selection: Texas - ATS

1) I like the Longhorns to get the solid win in this game against the Aggies on Saturday, November 30th. This is an interesting line considering Texas is a large favorite even though this games is taking place in Aggieland! The line looks like an invitation to grab the home dog getting nearly a TD but I am not falling for the trap line as the Horns have the better defense and the much stronger passing attack on offense which makes all the difference here. 

2) Texas A & M off a heart-breaking 4-OT loss at Auburn last week and a game like that takes a lot out of a team! Also, the Aggies lost their most recent SEC game prior to that one as well as they got hammered by 24 points in a loss at South Carolina! The Longhorns are the stronger team all over the field in this one.    

3) Texas is 10-1 this season after a massive season last year too. This program is in great shape right now and their only loss was to a tough Georgia team. In fact, the winner of this game will face the Bulldogs for the SEC Championship next week so today's game is huge! I am all over the Longhorns here and 9 of the 10 Longhorns wins have come by a double digit margin this season. In other words, covering the spread in a UT win should not be an issue here with this low number.

T.M. Prediction: 31-17 Texas

Line: -5

T.M. Selection: Georgia Tech - ATS

1) I like Georgia Tech to stay within the huge number posted here in this game against Georgia on Friday, November 29th. The line looks like a trap line to take the Bulldogs considering the Yellow Jackets already have twice as many losses as Georgia this season. The Bulldogs have the better defense but the Jackets have, statistically, nearly and equal offense and they are being underestimated here. The fac tis that it is still just too many points and, in terms of the trap, I am not falling for it!

2) In terms of ATS stats, Georgia is a rough 3-8 ATS this season plus they are 0-6 ATS when favored by 14 or more plus Georgia Tech has covered all but 3 of last 11 against ranked opponents. The Yellow Jackets have a strong offense and regardless of what they might be saying, the Bulldogs can't help but to be thinking ahead to the big game with the SEC Title Game next week. 

3) Georgia Tech is well-coached under Key plus they have covered each of the last two meetings including very easily last year as a big dog in this match-up. They lost by only 8 points and a similar result looms here the way I have this one handicapped. 

T.M. Prediction: 30-21 Georgia

Line: +18

T.M. Selection: Memphis - ATS

1) I like Memphis to stay within the huge number posted here in this game against Tulane on Thursday, November 28th. The line looks like a trap line to take the Green Wave considering the Tigers already have 2 losses in AAC games while Tulane is undefeated and will play Army next week in the AAC Championship Game. Green Wave has the better defense but Memphis is being underestimated here. The fac tis that it is still just too many points and, in terms of the trap, I am not falling for it!

2) In  terms of ATS stats, Tulane has been much better in AAC games but this is why there is so much value here because Memphis is undervalued due to their 2-5 ATS mark in AAC games while Tulane is 8-2-1 ATS on the season. The Tigers have a strong offense and regardless of what they might be saying, the Green Wave can't help but to be thinking ahead to the big game with the Black Knights next week. 

3)  The Green Wave also may have a lack of typical home field edge here as the students go home for Thanksgiving Day and there may not be the typical fan support Tulane would hope for here. They are off 3 straight dominating wins but his has inflated this line against a very talented Memphis team with a strong QB who already has 4 seasons as a starter under his belt. 

T.M. Prediction: 31-24 Tulane

Line: +14

T.M. Selection: Kent State - ATS

1) I like Kent State to stay within the huge number posted here in this game against Buffalo on Tuesday, November 26th. The line looks like a trap line to take Buffalo considering the Golden Flashes are winless on the season while the Bulls are having a solid season and already have a 7th win for bowl eligibility. It is still just too many points and, in terms of the trap, I am not falling for it!

2) The Golden Flashes gained some confidence on offense last week as they scored 17 points and Ulatowski was back under center and had his biggest yardage game since the middle of October. The Bulls defense, especially against the pass, has not been good so Kent State will get points here! 

3) The Bulls won by 17 last week and do only 1 win in 11 games on the season that came by a m margin of greater than 17 points. Look for Buffalo to get a big win here but then start resting players and look for the Bulls struggles on pass defense to continue. As a result this game will be closer than expected and Kent State finishes the season winless SU but does get the ATS cover. Buffalo over-priced!   

T.M. Prediction: 28-19 Buffalo

Line: +22.5

T.M. Selection: Fresno State Bulldogs - Moneyline

1) I like the Fresno State Bulldogs to win this game against the Colorado State Rams on Saturday, November 23rd. The line is in the -3 to -3.5 range and for my money the better value is therefore with the money line in the -155 range.

2) This line looks like a trap to take Colorado State as a road dog as they are a perfect 5-0 in the MWC and also on a perfect run of 7 straight covers ATS. The Bulldogs are favored here and this could fool the masses but not us! Let's get the money here with Fresno State as the home team is still in need of a 6th win for bowl eligibility and they have a tough game on deck with UCLA and this is the Bulldogs MWC finale. Fresno State highly motivated to get that 6th win here and knock off one of just two remaining MWC teams that are undefeated in their MWC games. 

3) In terms of yardage allowed statistics, Fresno State has the better defense in this match-up and they are sure to be ready on their home field here. The Bulldogs had won 23 of 30 games (including bowls) prior to these two defeats and Fresno State blew a 20-7 fourth quarter lead in most recent home game. I am sure the Bulldogs will maintain full focus for the full 60 in this one and they catch the Rams off the big win in "The Border War" rivalry with Wyoming. Perfect set up for this one. 

T.M. Prediction: 28-17 Fresno State.

Line: -160

T.M. Selection: SMU Mustangs - ATS

1) I like the Mustangs to get the solid win in this game against the Cavaliers on Saturday, November 23rd. The line looks like a trap line to take the home team as a double digit underdog (currently 10 to 10.5) and I am not falling for it!

2) SMU just needs to win out to make it to the CFB playoffs and their only loss this season was by 3 points to a tough BYU team. The yardage was equal in that game until the Cougars got what ended up being the game-winning FG courtesy of a 67-yard drive! The Mustangs, as you can see, are very nearly undefeated this season! 6 of 8 SMU wins since a tight season-opening win have been by at least a 10 point margin. 

3) Virginia has lost 4 of 5 games and has given up an average of 41 points in the last 3 defeats. The Cavaliers have lost 3 of 4 home games since a season-opening win and 2 of the 3 defeats were blowout losses. I expect another blowout defeat by 10+ in this one. Road team rolls here as the Mustangs have too much offense for the Cavs to keep up and they also have the better defense. SMU adds to their 5-2 ATS run and make it 6-2 ATS last 8 games!    

T.M. Prediction: 38-17 SMU.

Line: -10

T.M. Selection: Purdue - ATS

1) I like Purdue to stay within single digits in this game against Michigan State on Friday, November 22nd. The line looks like a trap line to take the Spartans considering the Boilermakers are the worst team in the Big Ten and Michigan State still needs two wins for bowl eligibility. It is still just too many points and, in terms of the trap, I am not falling for it!

2) The Boilermakers will bring their top effort this week in response to having two of their worst defeats of the season in B2B weeks against two of the top teams in the country. Purdue will fare much better against a much weaker foe here and it is going to be tough for the Spartans to pull away in this one! 

3) In their last two games against teams not ranked in the top five in the country, the Boilermakrs have a pair of OT losses and I project this one to be a tight battle. The Spartans have lost 6 of 7 games and their 3 wins against non-FCS schools (so, excluding Prairie View A & M) have been by an average margin of just 7 points. None of those 3 wins were by more than 12 points. Michigan State over-priced!   

T.M. Prediction: 26-21 Michigan State

Line: +14

T.M. Selection: Toledo Rockets - Moneyline

1) I like the Toledo Rockets to win this game handily against the Ohio Bobcats on Wednesday, November 20th. The line is in the -1.5 to -2 range and for my money the better value is therefore with the money line in the -120 range.

2) The line has moved toward Ohio University as they are off a couple strong defensive performances. The Bobcats are a little over-valued now after 3 straight solid wins. Two of those wins were at home and the road win was against a horrible Kent State team. The Bobcats are 5-1 in MAC games this season but now go on the road to face a Rockets team that has dominated the series in recent meetings when playing in Toledo.   

3) Big match-up edge when you compare the passing offenses of these two teams as the Rockets rate much higher. Even with windy conditions in Toledo for this one, the short passing game of Toledo will be a big difference. Home field also a huge factor here. Ohio University was 1-3 in road games this season before that big win over a bad Kent State team. Big value here! Lay the small price here with confidence! 

T.M. Prediction: 27-17 Toledo.

Line: -120 

T.M. Selection: Miami-Ohio Redhawks vs Northern Illinois Huskies - OVER 

I am on the OVER in the Miami Ohio Redhawks versus Northern Illinois Huskies game on Tuesday. Two solid defenses but this total has dropped too low given the way these offenses have been performing as well. Weather will be fine for an over in Oxford, OH tonight so that is also not an issue here. The Redhawks are on a 5-game winning streak and have scored an average of 35 points in these 5 games. Northern Illinois has won 2 of last 3 games and has scored an average of 31 points per game in this 3-game stretch. The last two meetings between these teams both topped 50 points and all signs point to a repeat of that here! The two quarterbacks involved here are both having solid seasons including limiting turnovers and they have a combined 30 to 12 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions. Each team has great rushing attacks as well as they each showed once again in their victories last week. While both defenses are strong, not enough respect is being given to the balanced attack each of these teams has! Let's get in on this value here! 

T.M. Prediction: 27-24 Miami-Ohio. 

T.M. Selection: Oregon Ducks vs Wisconsin Badgers - OVER 

I am on the OVER in the Oregon Ducks at Wisconsin Badgers game on Saturday. Oregon is going to be unstoppable here on offense. The Badgers defense is not what it once was and Wisconsin has allowed 35 ppg last 2 games and now faces the #1 team in the country! The Ducks are averaging 35.7 ppg this season and will roll big here in this one as they are correctly expected to win this game by two touchdowns. Other than games against a slumping Illinois team and a horrible Purdue team, Oregon has given up 20 ppg in their other 7 games against FBS teams this season. The point is that expecting the Badgers to get into the low to mid-twenties here is a valid expectation yet they will not be able to stop the Ducks potent offense! Oregon also has a bye week on deck so they can go all out here! Badgers are scoring an average of 26 ppg at home this season! Coming off a bye week and with this being a night game in Madison with a raucous crowd, the Badgers could surprise with hanging around for awhile before the Ducks strongly pull away in the second half. Translation: plenty of points because of this scenario playing out Saturday night in Wisconsin!  

T.M. Prediction: 38-24 Oregon. 

Line: O/U 50.5

T.M. Selection: Utah - ATS

1) I like Utah to stay within single digits in this game against Colorado on Saturday, November 16th. The line looks like a trap line to take the Buffaloes considering the recent struggles of the Utes and the red hot run of the Buffs and I am not falling for it!

2) This line got steamed when it was lower (single digits) because of the reaction to Colorado being on a 7-0 ATS run while Utah is on an 0-5 SU run plus, before tight cover vs BYU last week, the Utes were on an 0-4 ATS run. Utah will be fired up after last week's frustrating late-game loss to the rival Cougars. The Utes will bring their top effort this week in response and it is going to be tough for the Buffaloes to pull away in this one! 

3) The Utes have lost 5 straight games after starting the season 4-0 but the 5 straight losses by an average margin of only 6 points! None of the Utah defeats by more than 13 points! The Buffaloes should have won last week just 34-27 and, prior to that, only 3 of Colorado's first 8 games were wins by more than an 11-point margin. This game is going to be a war because the Utes are fired up and fighting for bowl eligibility (need 2 wins in 3 remaining games). Colorado over-priced!   

T.M. Prediction: 24-20 Colorado

Line: +13.5

T.M. Selection: Colorado State Rams - ATS

1) I like the Rams to get the solid win in this game against the Cowboys on Friday, November 15th. The line looks like a trap line to take the road team as a big underdog (opened up at 10.5) and I am not falling for it!

2) Colorado State has been rolling and is so strong on defense in comparison with a horrible Cowboys defense. Wyoming is a big step down defensively from the program they have been in recent seasons. The Rams are the stronger team and the Cowboys are off some impressive performances on offense since they made a QB switch. However, their offense was great because they faced two horrible defenses, New Mexico and Utah State!

3) Wyoming can't stop anyone on the ground and struggle to stop them through the air as well. Also, the Colorado State D has been getting stronger as the season has gone on. The Rams have allowed only 16 ppg in their 4 games in MWC action. They are 4-0 in MWC games and won by an average margin of 11 ppg. I expect another blowout by 10+ in this one. Home team rolls here as the Rams add to their 6-0 ATS run and make it 7-0 ATS last 7 games!    

T.M. Prediction: 34-14 Colorado State.

Line: -8.5

T.M. Selection: Kent State Golden Flashes vs Miami-OH Redhawks - OVER 

I am on the OVER in the Kent State Golden Flashes at Miami-OH Redhawks game on Wednesday. Kent State is 0-9 this season and has had major injury issues impact their QB position. Look for freshman QB Ruel Tomlinson to be much better now that he got a start under his belt last week. That being said, the Golden Flashes are 30 point dogs here for a reason and this game will get ugly. The point is, however, at least this time around Kent State will get some points on the board after being shutout last week. Kent State had scored 24 ppg in MAC games this season before being shutout last week. Miami-Ohio is on a 4-game winning streak and has scored 35 ppg in these victories. We need only to get past the mid-40s to win this selection and all 5 MAC games for Miami-OH have totaled 48 points or more. Rain is coming to Oxford OH tonight but they should get this game in before weather would become any issue and the winds will be fine and that is most important for an over. 

T.M. Prediction: 45-14 Miami-OH. 

Line: O/U 46.5

T.M. Selection: Western Michigan Broncos vs Bowling Green Falcons - OVER 

I am on the OVER in the Western Michigan Broncos at Bowling Green Falcons game on Tuesday. Even though the Falcons tend toward lower-scoring action, the Broncos are off their first MAC loss this season and have been scoring plenty of points this season. Western Michigan is surely set to respond on offense yet this is a defense that has been horrid and Bowling Green commands a 10-point line here per the books. The Broncos have scored an average of 41 ppg last 7 games. The Falcons have scored well of late and will be moving against a Western Michigan defense allowing 41.5 ppg last 4 road games. Bowling Green has scored an average of 30 ppg last 3 games but can top that and then some here as they take on a Broncos team that has been one of the worst defenses in the MAC this season. Western Michigan makes a game out of it however as they have scored more points than any other team in the conference this season and they have averaged 52 points scored the last two times they were entering a game off a loss.

T.M. Prediction: 41-30 Bowling Green. 

Line: O/U 58.5

T.M. Selection: Utah State Aggies vs Washington State Cougars - OVER 

I am on the OVER in the Utah State Aggies at Washington State Cougars game on Saturday. Both teams are off bye weeks and the extra rest will help to turn this one into a fast-paced score-fest. The Aggies are solid offensively but very weak defensively and the Cougars, especially being at home, are going to take full advantage here. Washington State games played at Pullman this season have averaged 78 ppg and this one should get in that range as well. The Cougars offense will be unstoppable as they take on a Utah State team off a 27-25 win but allowing 49 ppg in the 6-game losing streak that preceded the win over Wyoming. The Aggies have scored 31 ppg in their 6 games since a shutout loss versus USC. Utah State's defense is allowing 6.8 yards per play and that is one of the worst in the nation. Cougars definitely the better defense in this match-up but they have allowed 30 ppg last 5 games. I really like the fact both teams are off a bye here plus the statistical support for expecting Cougars to reach the 50 range and Aggies to reach the 30 range as we can see above. 

T.M. Prediction: 52-31 Washington State. 

Line: O/U 69.5

T.M. Selection: Iowa State Cyclones - Moneyline

1) I like the Iowa State Cyclones to win this game handily against the Kansas Jayhawks on Saturday, November 9th. The line is in the -2.5 range and for my money the better value is therefore with the money line in the -130 range.

2) The line is begging you to take home dog Kansas off a bye week but I am not falling for it. The Cyclones are off their first loss of this season and will be ready to respond immediately here. Even though Jayhawks are off a bye week this followed a loss to rival Kansas State which took the wind out of their sails. Now they face a tough Iowa State team that has already shown they can battle through adversity to win tight games late (Iowa, UCF) and that makes them a solid choice again on the Big 12 road in this one.  

3) Big match-up edge when you compare the defenses of these two teams as the Cyclones rate much higher plus I would also give their offense the edge as well based on yardage per game stats this season. Kansas is only 2-5 SU against FBS schools this season. The Jayhawks have allowed more than 28 points in 4 of 5 games. The Cyclones have allowed more than 23 points only once this season and they won that game anyway! Lay the small price here with confidence! 

T.M. Prediction: 31-20 Iowa State Cyclones.

Line: -130 

T.M. Selection: Iowa - ATS

1) I like the Hawkeyes to get the solid win in this game against the Bruins on Friday, November 8th. This is an interesting line considering how the Hawkeyes are off a huge win over Wisconsin and now had to travel out west to face UCLA in Bruins country! The line looks like an invitation to grab the home dog getting nearly a TD but I am not falling for the trap line as the Hawkeyes have the better defense and the much stronger running attack on offense which makes all the difference here. 

2) UCLA has won 2 straight games but this followed a 1-5 start in their first 6 games this season. The Bruins had lost 5 straight games prior to the B2B wins and UCLA is 0-3 at home and scoring only 14 ppg at home this season!   

3) Iowa has a tough defense and runs the ball so well on offense and I just don't see the Bruins being able to keep up in this game! Not only is Iowa 6-3 this season, the Hawkeyes have scored an average of 38.5 ppg in their 6 victories. They are favored here and another solid win should result the way I see it as the Bruins remain winless at home on the season.

T.M. Prediction: 28-17 Iowa  

Line: -5.5 -122 or -6

T.M. Selection: Florida Atlantic Owls vs East Carolina Pirates - OVER 

I am on the OVER in the Florida Atlantic Owls at East Carolina Pirates game on Thursday. The Pirates have had 3 straight games total more than 70 points and this one should do the same. East Carolina has scored 37 points per game at home this season. The Pirates are giving up 38 ppg last 5 games which includes all 4 of their conference games as well. Florida Atlantic is at the bottom of the AAC standings but they do score well. The Owls have averaged 29 points scored in their last 6 games. FAU has a problem though and that is an inability to stop anyone! Florida Atlantic has allowed 36 ppg last 5 games and allowed at least 38 in 4 of the 5 games. The Owls are facing an East Carolina team that looks different since making the QB change and head coaching change plus the Pirates are coming off a bye. This all is pointing toward a high-scoring game as the Pirates defense has issues remaining but the offense has gone to another level and the Owls O also has been on the upswing in recent weeks - other than bad game versus UTSA. 

T.M. Prediction: 37-30 East Carolina. 

Line: O/U 57 

T.M. Selection: Western Michigan - ATS

1) I like the Broncos to get the solid win in this game against the Huskies on Wednesday, November 6th. I will grab the +2 points here but I am expecting the outright win of course! This is an interesting line considering how the line has flipped from Western Michigan as the favorite to now Northern Illinois! I am not falling for the trap line as the Huskies have the better defense but the Broncos offense as well as home field makes all the difference here. 

2) Western Michigan has won 4 straight games and scored an average of 45 points in the 4 victories. They are riding sky high right now. The Huskies off B2B losses and have averaged only 19 points scored last 7 games.  

3) This is a double revenge spot including Northern Illinois rolling to a 24-0 win over the Broncos last week. This Western Michigan team rolling with confidence and a strong offense right now and these are key factors heading into this game. The books know this too and that is why this game was originally priced with Western Michigan as the favorite. The betting masses may be fooled on this one but we won't! The Broncos are the bet here!

T.M. Prediction: 30-23 Western Michigan  

Line: +2

T.M. Selection: Bowling Green Falcons vs Central Michigan Chippewas - OVER 

I am on the OVER in the Bowling Green Falcons at Central Michigan Chippewas game on Tuesday. The Falcons are a heavy favorite here and are rolling right now with a 3-1 start in MAC action. Bowling Green has one ugly loss in MAC action this season but in their other 7 games on the year, the Falcons have scored an average of 30 ppg! The Chippewas are off a bad road loss but should fare much better on their home field for this one. Central Michigan only scored 7 points at Miami, Ohio but this was after the Chips averaged 34.5 ppg in 4 games preceding that ugly effort. At home this season Central Michigan has scored at least 22 points in all 4 games and has averaged 37.5 ppg scored at home. Chips allowing 34.5 ppg last 7 games. Some rain in the area this evening but not too much wind at Mount Pleasant for this one. Tyler Jefferson off a tough game at QB for the Chippewas last week but the new starter, due to injuries to others, has completed 11 of 17 passes in his two appearances at home. Also, the Falcons defense allowed over 400 yards of offense in their win at Toledo last week. BG will score just fine here but C. Mich. hangs around and the points will reflect that! 

T.M. Prediction: 37-23 Bowling Green. 

Line: O/U 48 

T.M. Selection: Pittsburgh Panthers vs SMU Mustangs - OVER 

I am on the OVER in the Pittsburgh Panthers at SMU Mustangs game on Saturday. The Panthers are a PERFECT 7-0 this season but will have their hands full here with this Mustangs offense at SMU. If you look at the Mustangs last 9 home games, they went 8-1 SU and averaged scoring an incredible 55.4 ppg in those 8 victories. That is NOT total points per game for BOTH teams. That is the average points scored by SMU which shows you just how potent this offense is at home. The Panthers, though likely to struggle on defense, should get their offense rolling against a Mustangs D that has allowed at least 27 points in 3 of last 5 games and allowed an average of 32 points in those 3 games. The Pitt offense had one dud against California this season but has scored an average of 44.8 points per game in their other 6 games! Both teams rank well defensively this season too but there is just too much offensive firepower on this Mustangs team and it is going for force the Panthers into a shootout in this game and getting well into the 60+ range should not be a problem as you can see from the numbers above. 

T.M. Prediction: 37-30 SMU. 

Line: O/U 56 

T.M. Selection: Texas A & M Aggies - Moneyline

1) I like the Texas A & M Aggies to win this game against the South Carolina Gamecocks on Saturday, November 2nd. The line is in the -3 to -3.5 range and for my money the better value is therefore with the money line in the -155 range.

2) The Aggies, from a yardage standpoint, have the much better offense in this match-up. The defenses rate nearly equal. Also, Texas A & M has shown a knack for winning tighter, tougher games while the Gamecocks always seem to find a way to lose these types of games. That is a big part of the reason Texas A & M is 7-1 this season and 5-0 in the SEC while South Carolina is only 4-3 this season plus has a losing record in the SEC. 

3) Look for the South Carolina defense to struggle here with a dual threat QB in this one. After the Aggies switched to Reed at QB against LSU last week that changed everything in that game. Also, the Gamecocks got a couple defensive TDs to get a huge lead in their win over Oklahoma before the bye week. The Aggies pull away as this game goes along and will go all out with a bye week on deck. 

T.M. Prediction: 27-17 Texas A & M.

Line: -154 

T.M. Selection: Georgia State Panthers vs Connecticut Huskies - OVER 

I am on the OVER in the Georgia State Panthers vs Connecticut Huskies game on Friday. The Panthers are on a 4-game losing streak but have scored an average of 23.5 ppg last 6 games. Georgia State has allowed at least 31 points in 5 of 7 games this season. When you see numbers like this coupled with the fact this game is at Connecticut, you can see why this total is set far too low. The Huskies are off a 17-10 low-scoring win but this followed a 6-game stretch in which they averaged scoring 36.3 ppg! The last couple games being lower-scoring for UConn has resulted in a low total here and I will take advantage. The Panthers also made a QB switch to Gibson last week and he expect even more from him in his expected 2nd straight start under center now. Huskies have had either a 130-yard rusher or 260-yard passer in 3 straight games and they will get it done both on the ground and through the air against a mediocre Georgia State defense. 

T.M. Prediction: 34-26 Connecticut. 

Line: O/U 48 

T.M. Selection: New Mexico State Aggies vs Florida International Panthers - OVER 

I am on the OVER in the New Mexico State Aggies vs Florida International Panthers game on Tuesday. The Panthers are off a low-scoring loss but they played a tough Sam Houston team. That was a 10-7 defeat after FIU had scored average of 29 points last 6 games. New Mexico State is off a rare win which sets this up well because Aggies confidence will be up after the double OT win. NM St scored 24 prior to OT in that game and they have averaged 26 ppg last 3 games (excluding OT points). The Aggies are having a rough season because of defense as they have allowed 39.5 ppg last 6 games. With numbers like these you can see why this total is far too low. There has been over-reaction to the FIU loss by a 10-7 final last week and the result is extreme line value here which is why I am going big in this one!  

T.M. Prediction: 31-21 Florida International. 

Line: O/U 43.5 

T.M. Selection: Michigan Wolverines - ATS

1) I like the Wolverines to get the solid win and cover in this game against the Spartans on Saturday, October 26th. The line has come crashing down to 3.5 after being up near double digits originally! Do the markets really believe the oddsmakers were that far off of reality on this one from the get go? 

2) This massive line move simply does not make sense. The coaching edge here would go to the Spartans and certainly Michigan State is a much improved team. However, this team does not have the talent level that the Wolverines have. Michigan is still one of the top programs in the country from a recruiting and talent perspective while the Spartans are still rebuilding!

3) Though these teams are each 4-3 on the season, Michigan is 4-1 at home this season with their only loss to a very strong Texas team! The Spartans are 1-2 on the road this season and they went 0-2 this season against ranked teams with the losses by an average margin of 26 points. The Wolverines did beat a ranked USC team this season. Also, Jack Tuttle should be better at QB at home and in what will now be his 3rd game under center and first time in B2B weeks this season. The consistency helps him plus the Wolverines ground game is a big edge in this one.     

T.M. Prediction: 24-14 Michigan.

Line: -3.5

T.M. Selection: Maryland Terrapins vs Minnesota Golden Gophers - OVER 

I am on the OVER in the Maryland Terrapins vs Minnesota Golden Gophers game on Saturday. The Terrapins have a bye week on deck and the Gophers are coming off a bye week. From a situational standpoint, the set up here is ideal for solid point production. Maryland has allowed 36 ppg last 3 games. The Terrapins have averaged scoring 29.6 ppg this season. This total is set too low given numbers like these because take a look at Minnesota as well. The Golden Gophers have averaged scoring 26.3 ppg last 6 games. Minnesota has allowed an average of 23 ppg. Each of the last 5 meetings between these teams topped 50 points and many of them crushed that number! Look for another easy over here as, given the numbers above, expecting both teams to get close to the 30-point range is certainly not a big ask. The high-scoring trend between these teams continues in this season's match-up. Beautiful weather at Huntington Bank Stadium in Minneapolis for this one.  

T.M. Prediction: 32-26 Minnesota. 

Line: O/U 46.5 

T.M. Selection: Louisville Cardinals - ATS

1) I like the Cardinals to get the solid win and cover in this game against the Eagles on Friday, October 25th. The line looks like a trap line to take the home team as a big underdog as Boston College is getting as much as 7.5 out there but we can find some 7 on the favorite, even with a little extra juice, and it is well worth it. In terms of the trap, I am not falling for it!

2) Louisville has been rolling and is so strong on offense in comparison with a sputtering Boston College offense. The Eagles are a big step down from the program they were in some of their better recent seasons. The Cardinals are the stronger team and this BC team has been consistently losing by a solid margin. The Eagles off 2 straight losses with the last 2 each by 10+ points!

3) Boston College has averaged only 21 ppg in their 6 games against FBS teams this season. Louisville has scored 37.4 ppg this season! The Cardinals have lost 3 of 4 but 2 of those defeats were against ranked teams. They are off a 52-45 loss to #6 Miami and will respond immediately here I am sure. Boston College was down 28-0 at half in their loss last week. Ironically they also trailed Louisville by 28 points at the half when these teams met last season as well. More of the same in this one. Road team rolls here!    

T.M. Prediction: 34-20 Louisville.

Line: -7

T.M. Selection: Syracuse Orange vs Pittsburgh Panthers - UNDER 

I am on the UNDER in the Syracuse Orange vs Pittsburgh Panthers game on Thursday. Both teams known for some high-scoring offensive production but this has elevated this total. Now you have a match-up of two top teams in the ACC that respect each others offense here. That means part of the game plan will be running the ball plenty on offense or going with short middle routes and quick dump off passes (effectively also running plays) as these teams want to keep the clock running. Why play this way? They each fear the others offense. So the emphasis will be ball control and clock management on offense to churn up clock in hopes of not allowing the opponent's offense too much time on the field here. Of course something will have to give but the point is that this is likely to be more of a tighter low-scoring game than many are expecting. Both teams have solid running games and respectable run defenses so watch this battle unfold in the trenches. Don't make the mistake of just looking at point totals these teams have produced this season, think of how the game planning will impact this battle of strong teams. Easy under here! The Orange, other than an OT game versus UNLV, have allowed 21.4 ppg this season. The Panthers, other than a high-scoring win over West Virginia, ironically have also allowed 21.4 ppg in their other 5 games this season! 

T.M. Prediction: 27-21 Pittsburgh. 

Line: O/U 62.5 

T.M. Selection: Kennesaw State - ATS

1) I like the Owls to stay within a 2 to 3 TD margin in this game against Liberty on Wednesday, October 23rd. This is a perfect setup based on recent results leading to VALUE!

2) Kennesaw State is 0-6 this season but other than a blowout loss to Jacksonville State, they have allowed just 26 ppg in their other 5 games this season and yet 26 is the line on this game! We should not need many points from the Owls to cover this spread as they have allowed 34 points or less in 5 of 6 games this season.  

3) The Owls will come to play here. They were embarrassed in their most recent home game and don't want to get embarrassed again. Liberty is 5-0 this season but the Flames have not been as dominant as that record might make one believe. Liberty has not won a game by more than an 18 point margin this season and their average margin of victory has been 12 points. The Flames also have game on deck with Jacksonville State and those Gamecocks have been surging and are undefeated so far in CUSA just like Liberty. The Flames will get caught looking ahead here.     

T.M. Prediction: 31-14 Liberty

Line: +26

T.M. Selection: LSU Tigers - Moneyline

1) I like the LSU Tigers to win this game against the Arkansas Razorbacks on Saturday, October 19th. The line is in the -2.5 range and for my money the better value is therefore with the money line in the -135 range.

2) The line is begging you to take home dog Arkansas off a bye week but I am not falling for it. The Tigers are building up momentum off an OT win last week and they also went on the road earlier this season and won at South Carolina after trailing by 17 in that game. LSU has already shown they can battle through adversity to win tight games late and that makes them a solid choice again on the SEC road in this one.  

3) Big match-up edge when you compare the passing attacks of these two teams! Razorbacks Green has 5 TD and 5 INT while Tigers Nussmeier has 18 TD against 6 INT. Road team pulls away in the 2nd half of this game as that passing attack proves to be too much. 

T.M. Prediction: 34-23 LSU Tigers.

Line: -135 

T.M. Selection: Texas A & M / Mississippi State OVER.

I am on the OVER in the Texas A & M vs. Mississippi State game on Saturday. The Aggies have won 5 straight games and averaged 34.6 ppg and they can top that here against a bad Bulldogs defense. The Mississippi State defense ranks as one of the least efficient defenses in the nation. Teams score quickly on them and when they don't, they still end up scoring anyway and Mississippi State gets weakened by long drives that decimates the energy of a struggling defense. The Bulldogs have lost 5 straight games and allowed an average of 38.4 ppg. They will not be able to stop the powerful ground game of the Aggies here. However, Mississippi State just put up 31 on Georgia and also, in most recent home game the Bulldogs scored 28 points. The Dogs do have a decent passing attack and will be able to move the ball well at home here and yet the Aggies are a huge favorite here and are one of the top teams in the country. Mississippi State surely get theirs here but they will not be able to stop the Texas A & M offense. Therefore, I like the OVER in this game.

T.M. Prediction: 41-24 Texas A & M