Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars v. Steelers -7 | Top | 45-42 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 59 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday 1PM ET - Let's start with the value here and the pointspread. Earlier this season Pittsburgh was favored by the same number as they are here but now the Steelers are rested off a bye week, playing with revenge and catch a Jags team trending down. Jacksonville closed the season with losses at San Francisco(6-10) and at Tennessee before a close home win over the Bills last weekend in the Wildcard. The Jaguars offense has not looked good the past two weeks with just 230 total yards last week against a Buffalo defense that was league average by our metrics. Jags QB Blake Bortles threw for just 87 yards last weekend after throwing for just 158 yards and 2 INT's the week before against the Titans. Bortles has had a QB rating of 76 or lower his last three starts and has thrown 5 INT's to just 3 TD's in that same span. The Steelers pass defense was outstanding to start the season with cornerback Joe Haden but slipped to below league average without him their final five games. Haden is back here which impacts the Steelers rush defense as they can add a player to the box to stop the run. Pittsburgh will be at full strength offensively here with WR Brown back in the lineup after a calf injury. The Steelers were 6-2 SU at home this year with impressive wins over Minnesota and a surging Ravens team at the end of the season. Pittsburgh's margin of victory in those 6 home wins was 11PPG. One of the Steelers homes losses came to this same Jacksonville team and it was one of Big Ben's worst games in his career. Roethlisberger was picked off 5 times, two of which were returned for TD's. The Steelers outgained the Jags by 58 yards yet lost by 21-points. The Jags need to run the football which will be difficult versus a Steelers stop-unit that allows just 105 rushing yards per game which is 10th in the NFL. What makes that number more meaningful is the fact that the Steelers faced 6 rushing offenses that were 11th or better in the NFL this season. Jacksonville was great against the pass this season but horrendous against the run so expect a heavy dose of Steelers RB Bell here. Pittsburgh QB Roethlisberger is 6-1 ATS his last seven home playoff games. The nail in the coffin here is the fact the Jags played the second easiest schedule this season and their true colors started to show late in the season when games mattered. Now in this situation they get manhandled by a rested, motivated Steelers team at home. Lay it! |
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01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles +3 | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia +3 over Atlanta, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET This is the first time EVER that a #1 seed has been an underdog at home in the playoffs. You think Philly will be extra motivated for this one knowing they aren’t expected to even win the game? We do. Now of course Nick Foles isn’t Carson Wentz but he is at least an experienced back up that has had some really solid numbers in his career including his 27 TD and 2 interception season a few years ago for the Eagles. Foles won 2 of the 3 games he started in place of Wentz with his only loss coming to end the season in a meaningless game vs Dallas as the Eagles had already locked up the #1 seed. Now we get this team rested up, with extra motivation at home where their only loss this year was in that meaningless season ender. Atlanta will be playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks and was on the west coast upsetting the Rams last week. Speaking of that upset, teams that win outright as an underdog in the wildcard round are just 21-37 ATS (12-46 SU which applies here as Atlanta is the favorite) in the Division round. Atlanta’s offense is nowhere near as potent as they were last season putting up nearly 1,000 fewer yards and 27 fewer TD’s than last season. They will run into a brick wall here as the Eagle defense is really good ranking 4th in the NFL in both total defense and scoring defense. The Philly defense allowed only 13 PPG at home this year allowing only 11 TD’s the entire season at home. If Atlanta doesn’t get to 20 points, which we don’t think they will, they are in trouble. That because this Falcon team is 0-6 SU this season when they don’t reach 20 points. Weather will also benefit the Eagles here as the temperature is expected to be 21 degrees with the windchill. Atlanta is obviously a dome team and they haven’t played in a game this year with the temp below 40 degrees. The Birds haven’t won a game with the temp below 40 degrees since the 2009 season. Home underdogs in the NFL playoffs are 26-13-2 ATS since 1980 and we have a feeling that Philly wins this game and hosts the NFC Championship game next week. |
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01-07-18 | Bills v. Jaguars -9 | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -105 | 45 h 4 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Jacksonville -9 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We’ve been anti Buffalo for much of the year and feel they are absolutely not worthy of being a playoff team. They were outgained in 13 of their 16 games this year which led to their -53 YPG yard differential on the year. Last week they went to Miami and won a tight game 22-16 and they were outgained by a Dolphin offense that played David Fales at QB who hadn’t thrown a pass all season long and had only 2 career completions. We were on the Fins in that game and are very confident that if Jay Cutler would have played the entire game (he played only 1 series) the Bills wouldn’t even be in the playoffs right now. The Bills also have a -57 point differential on the season which is the worst by far of the 12 playoff teams. In fact, there are 20 teams in the NFL that have a better point differential than Buffalo. The only other team in the post-season with a negative point differential is Tennessee at -22. By comparison, Jacksonville checks in with a point differential of +149 which is 2nd in the AFC behind New England only. The Jags clinched the AFC South a few weeks ago and are coming off back to back losses in meaningless games. We actually like the fact they’ve lost a few in a row entering this contest giving them a little extra motivation here. Jacksonville’s defense is fantastic ranking 2nd in the NFL behind Minnesota allowing just 286 YPG. That will be a problem here for a Buffalo team that is not very explosive (22nd in PPG scored & 29th in total offense) and might be without their top offensive weapon LeSean McCoy which would be a huge loss. McCoy accounts for 33% of the Bills offense which is 2nd most in the NFL by any player (behind only Gurley of the Rams). Also keep in mind that Buffalo put up those poor offensive numbers this season despite playing only 3 games all season vs defenses that ended the year in the top 10 in total defense. The Jacksonville offense is surprisingly good this year ranking 5th in the NFL in scoring and they’ve put up at least 30 points in 4 of their last 5 games entering the playoffs. They will be able to run with Leonard Fournette facing a Buffalo defense that ranks 29th in the NFL at stopping the run. That takes some pressure off Jacksonville QB Bortles who is much better when he doesn’t have to carry the load offensively. Buffalo, on the flip side, will have problems running the ball in this game without McCoy. Even if he plays he is not close to 100%. That leaves Buffalo’s running game with Mike Tolbert and Marcus Murphy who was recently brought up from the practice squad. We know the Bills struggle to pass ranking 2nd to last in the NFL in that category and they’ll be facing the #1 pass defense in the NFL in this game. If Buffalo’s ground game struggles, which it will, they are in big trouble here on offense. Their defense isn’t good enough to shut down Jacksonville and we see the Jaguars winning this game by 10+ points. |
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01-01-18 | South Carolina v. Michigan -7.5 | Top | 26-19 | Loss | -100 | 46 h 42 m | Show |
#266 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Michigan -7.5 over South Carolina, Monday at 12:00 PM ET We feel this is a defense vs offense mismatch in favor of the Wolverines. The Gamecocks offense is not good. They rank 107th nationally in total offense averaging only 341 YPG. The two best defenses they played this year (Clemson & Georgia) both completely shut this team down. In those two games the Gamecocks scored just 10 points in each game and averaged only 237 total YPG in those two games. Now they face a Michigan defense that is every bit as good as those two stop units as they rank 3rd nationally in total defense allowing only 268 YPG. Only 3 teams all season long scored more than 20 points vs Michigan and those were the 3 best teams in the Big Ten (OSU, PSU, and Wisconsin). We expect South Carolina to struggle big time offensively here. The Michigan offense had their issues this year but when they had Peters at QB they were pretty good as they scored 30+ points in 3 of the 4 games he started. He’s back and ready to go which really gives a boost to Michigan’s offense. This gives Michigan an advantage on BOTH sides of the ball in this game. We’ve been anti South Carolina all season long as this is a team that seem to get a bit lucky in some of their wins with defensive and special teams scores. In fact, this team is 8-4 but they were outgained by nearly 40 YPG on the season. The Big Ten has been very successful in this bowl season as of this writing (Saturday afternoon) and we look for that to continue. Michigan is the play. |
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12-31-17 | Bills v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -130 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Miami +3 over Buffalo, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET These two played just 2 weeks ago and Buffalo was favored by 3.5 at home. The Bills won that game 24-16 but the yardage was nearly even. Now they are favored by nearly the same number on the road giving us very good value with Miami in this game. Buffalo is one of those teams that “has to” win which is why the line is set where it is. The fact is, the teams that have to win don’t always win. Especially with a team that isn’t all that great to begin with. Buffalo is a team that really shouldn’t be sitting the position they are. The Bills sit with an 8-7 record, however they’ve been outgained by 53 YPG on the season and they have a -63 point differential. They have outgained only 3 of their 15 opponents this season! The only time they’ve been favored on the road this year was @ NY Jets and they lost that game by 13 points. That makes Buffalo 1-5 ATS the last 6 times they’ve been favored on the road dating back to 2014. They are also just 8-15 SU their last 23 trips to Miami. The Fins have played well at home down the stretch beating both New England and Denver as home underdogs in their last 2 here. We look for Miami to play hard at home and close out the season with an outright win. Take the points. |
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12-30-17 | Iowa State +4.5 v. Memphis | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 19 h 26 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON IOWA STATE +4.5 over Memphis, Liberty Bowl, Saturday Dec 30th @ 12:30 PM ET – This was one game we immediately circled when the lines came out and feel the better team is getting points here. Memphis is basically playing a home game here but is that a huge benefit for a Bowl team? Isn't it more fun, exciting and less distracting for the players to travel to someplace new as a reward for qualifying for a Bowl? In this situation we don't feel the home field will hold the advantages it normally does for Memphis. A big factor in handicapping Bowl games is knowing if a team is properly motivated to be there and one thing we know for sure, Iowa State will be ready here. The Cyclones have a hot-shot young coach in Matt Campbell who is going to be on the short list for some big programs in the future. Campbell is a fantastic motivator and tactician and the team loves playing for him. This will be the Cyclones first Bowl game since 2012 so we know they'll be excited to be here. Campbell mentioned earlier this week many key players were was banged up at the end of the season but they now look like they did in early September health wise. That’s bad news for Memphis. The Tigers also has a great young coach in Mike Norvell who guided them to the Boca Raton Bowl last year, a loss to Western Kentucky. Memphis has a fast paced, high octane offense that averaged 47 PPG but their offensive numbers are very misleading. The Tigers faced some of the worst defensive teams in college football as 7 of their opponents ranked 82nd or worse in defensive efficiency ratings, 5 of which were 103rd or worse. In fact, the combined DEFF ratings of all the teams they faced was 81st so they should have great offensive numbers. The defense Memphis will face here has been battle tested and is easily the best they’ve faced this season. The Cyclones finished 2nd in the Big 12 in scoring defense (behind only TCU) and they won’t be fazed by the Tigers offense in this one as they have already faced more potent offenses that this one including Oklahoma (1st in the nation in total offense) and Oklahoma State (2nd in the nation in total offense). Despite facing one of the toughest offensive schedules in the nation, the ISU defense still ranks 31st nationally in DEFF. ISU faced 6 teams that rank in the top 50 in the nation in total offense (4 in the top 20) and won't be 'over their heads' against Memphis. The Cyclones played 7 teams in the top 45 according to Sagarin’s ratings while Memphis played just one, Central Florida, who beat the Tigers twice. ISU has played the 24th toughest schedule while Memphis has played the 86th. Memphis makes a living by turning teams over and that won't happen here as Iowa State has not lost a fumble all season long and they've only thrown 2 INT's in their previous four games. The Clones are no slouch on offense as they averaged 30 PPG this season against the MUCH tougher schedule. They should have a field day here facing a Memphis defense that rates 120th nationally, the worst defense ISU has faced all season long. Not only that, we consider the Tiger defense worse than the actual stats tell due to the fact they played such an easy schedule this season. Memphis is 7-0 SU at home this year but those wins have come against teams with a 29-39 SU record. It's obvious the oddsmakers continue to undervalue Iowa State as they are on a 6-0 ATS run as a dog and 10-1-1 ATS overall this season. They also have some added motivation here as ISU is the Power 5 team in this game yet they are the underdogs. They will be out to prove a point here and let’s not forget this is a very talented team that beat both Oklahoma (on the road) and TCU, the two teams who met in the Big 12 Championship game. We like the Cyclones to win outright! |
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12-28-17 | Stanford v. TCU -3 | Top | 37-39 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
#246 ASA 10* PLAY ON TCU -3 over Stanford, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET – ALAMO BOWL - TCU gets to play in the state of Texas here so they will have the overwhelming crowd advantage in San Antonio. We love looking for teams with a big defensive edge in the bowl games and that’s what we get here. TCU was the 4th best rush defense in the nation holding teams to just 99 YPG on 2.9 YPC. They ranked 18th in total defense nationally and allowed opposing QB to complete just 52% of their passes this year. They held opposing offenses to 122 yards per game below their season averages. Those are fantastic season long numbers and we view them as even better than they might read as they put up those stats in the offensively stout Big 12 which has 4 of the top 19 offenses in the country. This makes a poor match up for Stanford who has a young QB KJ Costello who has played in only 10 games thus far in his college career. While he has been improving and looks to have a bright future, we highly doubt he can carry the load vs this top notch defense. He might have to as Stanford relies on their running game to free him up to pass and that might not happen here facing TCU’s run defense. The only two defenses the Cardinal faced in the Pac 12 that were semi comparable to TCU were Washington & Washington State who are both top 20 defenses. In those two games Stanford averaged only 300 YPG on offense. The Cardinal defense is normally the staple of their team but they are way down this season. They rank 70th or lower in total defense, rush defense, and passing defense. We expect TCU’s offense, with speed and weapons galore, to do very well in this game. The Frogs put up at least 30 points in half their games this season. We also like the fact that TCU was embarrassed by Oklahoma 41-17 in the Big 12 Championship game so they feel as though they have something to prove on both sides of the ball here. Lay this small number with the superior team in a home type venue. |
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12-24-17 | Seahawks +5 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-12 | Win | 100 | 49 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Seattle +5 over Dallas, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - ASA's NFL UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH The betting markets are on the Cowboys here after a blowout loss by the Seahawks last week, and the return of RB Elliott for Dallas. But in reality it's the exact opposite here as the value is on the Hawks plus the points. The Seahawks lost by 35 points last week. NFL teams that were embarrassed the previous week and coming off losses of five TDs or more have some incredible technical support. Since 2003 those teams (off a 5 TD loss) are 55-31 ATS (64%), 44-23 ATS as a dog in that situation and 38-15 ATS as a pooch of 3-points or more. Seattle already has 4 quality road wins this season and will have a QB/coaching advantage in this do-or-die game for both teams. Yes, Zeke is back but Seattle still has a respectable rush defense and the Cowboys will be without their starting left tackle. Dallas has already 4 home losses this year, and even though Seattle has some injury issues, they still have some key efficiency advantages over the Boys. The Dog has covered 4 straight in this series and Seattle is on a 10-3 ATS run when coming off a loss. Grab the points. |
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12-24-17 | Falcons v. Saints -5.5 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 45 h 12 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New Orleans -5.5 over Atlanta, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's NFC SOUTH GAME OF THE YEAR Quick revenge here for the Saints after losing @ Atlanta 20-17 on December 7th, a game New Orleans led 17-10 in the 4th quarter. It was just the 2nd time in the last 10 games where the Saints have been outgained in a game and that was by only 37 yards. The New Orleans offense took a huge hit early in that game when star RB Kamara left the game with a concussion. He was back on the field last week in the Saints 31-19 win over the Jets so he’s ready to go here. We know New Orleans has a great offense leading the NFL at 401 YPG and 6.4 YPP, however the defense has been carrying this team holding opponents to 21 points or less in 7 of their last 9 games. This defense held Atlanta to 20 points on just 5 YPP in their meeting a few weeks ago and now the Falcons top offensive weapon, WR Julio Jones, hasn’t practiced this week due to an injury. He may play but won’t be at 100%. In their most recent “step up” division game at home a few weeks ago the Saints dominated the Panthers winning 31-21 and outgained Carolina by 120 yards. We see a similar scenario unfolding here. 9 of the Saints 10 wins this season have been by 8 points or more. On the flip side, Atlanta has 9 wins with 6 of those wins coming by 6 points or fewer (one possession type games). We rate New Orleans better on both sides of the ball and they have a great home field advantage going 6-1 here this year with their only loss being their home opener vs the Patriots. Lay it win the Saints. |
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12-23-17 | Army v. San Diego State -6.5 | Top | 42-35 | Loss | -108 | 42 h 10 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -6.5 over Army, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET The key to Army’s offensive success is not only running the option proficiently, but also making opposing defenses prepare for an offense they are not used to seeing on short notice. Two things are working against the Cadets here, one is the fact that SDSU has had a month off to prepare for the option and the other is Aztec head coach Rocky Long is as good as any defensive mind when it comes to slowing down the option. Long has won 11 of the last 12 times his teams have faced an option based offense and this will be the 3rd option team they have faced this year alone - they were 2-0 in those games. In those games the San Diego State defense held Air Force to 220 yards on 60 carries (just 3.7 YPC) which was 90 yards and a full 1.1 YPC below their season average. They also stopped the other option attack they faced this season, New Mexico, with just 82 yards rushing on 34 carries (2.4 YPC) which was 153 yards and a whopping 3.0 YPC below the Lobos season averages. It wasn’t a fluke as the Aztec defense ranks 8th nationally this season at stopping the run which is a terrible match up for Army as they run the ball 91% of the time which is more than anyone in the country. If the Cadets can’t dominate the ground game they are in big trouble offensively as they average only 30 YPG passing which is dead last in college football, a full 50 yards behind the next worst passing offense. On the other side of the ball, San Diego State is very good at running the ball (253 YPG) and they have one of the top RB’s in the nation in Rashaad Penny who has put up over 2,000 yards on the ground on 7.4 YPC. They should move the ball very efficiently on the ground facing an Army defense that simply isn’t very good allowing 5.0 YPC. While we fully expect SDSU to move the ball on the ground, they also have a solid QB Christian Chapman who ranks 33rd nationally in passing efficiency and has thrown 31 TD’s and just 9 interceptions in his two years as the Aztec starter. SDSU is 9-2 on the year with their only losses coming at the hands of Fresno St & Boise St, both bowl teams. They’ve knocked off 2 very good Pac 12 teams this year beating Stanford and Arizona State. Army had three losses on the season to Ohio State, Tulane, and North Texas and 5 of their 9 wins came by 5 points or less. These two teams have a very comparable strength of schedule, yet San Diego State had MUCH better overall seasonal numbers. The Aztecs averaged 6.2 yards per play while allowing just 5.1 for a differential of +1.1 YPP. Army averaged 6.1 YPP but allowed 6.2 YPP for a negative YPP differential. While State has had a month off, Army upset Navy just two weeks ago which was huge for them. That upset was definitely bigger than actually winning a bowl game for this team so this one could be a letdown for the Cadets. San Diego State is the better team in the better spot and we like them to win by double digits. |
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12-17-17 | Titans v. 49ers -1 | Top | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* San Francisco 49ers (-1) over Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 4 PM ET - We faded this overrated Tennessee team last week and cashed in and we’ll do it again here. The Titans are the most overrated team in the league. They are 8-5 on the year but have been outgained and outscored on the season. Last week @ Arizona they lost 12-7 and the offense stunk again. The Titans put up barely 200 yards of total offense and QB Mariota was bad again throwing 2 interceptions. The Titans are 3-4 on the road this year and Mariota has thrown just 3 TD’s to go along with 11 picks away from home on the season. This is also their 4th road game in 5 weeks and they have already lost @ Miami and @ Arizona and squeaked by @ Indy and in OT @ Cleveland. This Niner franchise now has some life with Jimmy Garoppolo at QB. They have won back to back road games @ Chicago and @ Houston and they outgained those two teams by a combined 350 yards. Garoppolo has thrown for over 600 yards in those two games. Now they are back at home and confident. The SF defense has been solid vs the rush this year allowing 3.9 YPC which is 7th in the NFL and if you can slow down Tennessee’s rushing attack you have them right where you want them. That forces Mariota to carry the load and he hasn’t been able to do that this season. Things that make you go hmmm…There is a reason the 3-10 team is a favorite over the 8-5 team. The Niners are the better team right now and we’ll take them at home. |
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12-16-17 | Oregon -7 v. Boise State | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon Ducks (-) over Boise State Broncos, Saturday at 3:30 ET: Game #205 |
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12-10-17 | Titans v. Cardinals +3 | Top | 7-12 | Win | 100 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Arizona +3 over Tennessee, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET The Titans just might be the most overrated team in the NFL. They are 8-4 yet have been outscored AND outgained on the season. Last week at home they got down 10-0 to a struggling Houston team and though they fought back to take the lead, the Texans were driving late for the winning score and threw a pick. Tennessee, with under 1:00 minute left and running out the clock, picked up a late covering 75 yard TD run to win 24-13. A very deceiving final score. The Titans have been outscored by 65 points in their last 5 road games with their only wins coming @ Cleveland 12-9 in OT and @ Indy 20-16. QB Marcus Mariota has struggled all season but especially on the road where he has thrown only 3 TD passes to go along with 9 interceptions. Because of Mariota’s struggles the Titans really need their running game to thrive in order for their offense to have a chance. That will be tough here as the Cards rank 9th overall in rush defense allowing 99 YPG and 6th in YPC defense (3.7). Arizona is off a home loss to the Rams but the Cards had more yardage in that game. A week earlier they beat a very good Jacksonville team here. This will be Arizona’s third straight home game while Tennessee is playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks. While the Cards have a 5-7 record and Titans are 8-4, the seasonal yardage numbers for these two teams are almost identical (Tennessee minus 4 YPG on the season / Arizona minus 2 YPG on the season). Arizona is 21-11-1 ATS (65%) as a home underdog since the start of the 2007 season. We like Arizona to win this game outright and we’ll gladly take the points here. |
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12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons +2 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Atlanta +2 over New Orleans, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET Falcons have to win this game after losing here vs Minnesota last Sunday 14-9. Interestingly, the Birds were favored by 2 or 3 vs Minnesota and now vs Saints just 4 days later they are +2. Value with Atlanta here. The Falcons are on the fringe of the wild card and 2 full games behind the Saints in the NFC South. New Orleans is off a huge home win over Carolina which has them sitting great in the NFC South with basically a 2 game lead over both Carolina & Atlanta as they now own the tie breaker over the Panthers. After being held to just 9 points and under 300 total yards vs what we feel is the best defense in the NFL, we look for the Falcons to play MUCH better offensively in this one. They have topped 30 points in 4 of their last 6 meetings with New Orleans. Also the Saints defense, which looked really good through the middle of their schedule but did so facing a number of poor offenses (Chicago, Buffalo, Miami, TB, and Green Bay – without Rodgers) has now come back to earth a bit. They have allowed 31, 26, and 21 points their last 3. The Falcon offense will rebound here and we like the way this Atlanta defense is playing right now allowing 20 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. Atlanta continues to be the best statistical team in the NFL with a yards per play differential of +1.0 which is tops in the league. The underdog is 13-3 ATS in this rivalry and the Falcons have covered 13 of their last 17 when getting points at home. Just an absolute must win for a solid home team and we’ll take the Birds. |
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12-03-17 | Chiefs v. Jets +3.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Jets +3.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFL UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH! We were on the Jets last week and feel we had the right side. Carolina was favored by 6 and won by 8 but were very fortunate to do so. The Jets actually outgained the Panthers by nearly 100 yards but allowed 2 non-offensive TD’s in the 4th quarter (fumble return & punt return) and even with that were down by just 5 in the final minute. The way the game timed out the Panthers were forced to kick a FG with 20 seconds left as they were not able to run the clock out. NY was impressive offensively putting up 27 points and nearly 400 yards vs one of the top defenses in the NFL (Panthers are 2nd in NFL in total defense). QB McCown has been surprisingly good this year including over 300 yards vs the Panthers last week and we actually would take him over KC QB Smith who has been bad over the last month plus. The Jets offense should be solid again this week vs a KC defense that ranks 27th in the NFL. The Chiefs, on the other hand, simply can’t score anymore. Last week they faced a Buffalo defense that had allowed a whopping 135 points over their previous 3 games and Alex Smith and company were only able to put up 10 points and lost at home. Buffalo had been outgained in 9 straight games before putting up more yards than KC last Sunday. The Chiefs have now lost 5 of their last 6 games with their one win coming by a single point and have scored 17, 9, and 10 points over their last 3. The Jets are 3-3 at home and their 3 losses have come vs 3 of the better teams in the NFL (New England, Carolina, and Atlanta) and all were one score games. KC doesn’t rate anywhere near those teams right now yet they are still laying points here. We like the Jets to win this game outright. |
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12-03-17 | Bucs v. Packers -2.5 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Green Bay -2.5 over Tampa Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Packers last home game was a debacle as they lost 23-0 to Baltimore. They will absolutely want to atone for that performance and they picked up some momentum last week @ Pittsburgh. Although a loss, they took one of the best teams in the NFL, in one of the toughest places to play in the NFL to the wire in a 31-28 win. After throwing up an egg at home the previous week, the GB offense played much better against one of the top defensive units in the league. QB Brett Hundley threw for 245 yards and 3 TD’s in his best performance yet. Now after facing two of the best defense teams on back to back weeks, we expect the offense to look good again as they take a big step down facing a Bucs defense that ranks last in the NFL in both YPG defense (395 YPG) and YPP defense (6.1). Tampa goes back to Jameis Winston at QB here and we actually think that is a negative for their offense. The Bucs were able to win 2 of their last 3 games with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB, albeit vs the Jets and Dolphins, but he had them playing OK on that side of the ball. Winston has a bad shoulder and was simply poor losing 5 straight before he went on the shelf for a few weeks. We don’t think he magically starts to perform well here. Tampa is just 1-5 on the road this year with their only win coming @ Miami in a game the Bucs were outgained by 130 yards. They have been a terrible road team in general winning just 16 of their last 53 away from home. Green Bay should have a spark here coming off a solid performance. They also receive word that Aaron Rodgers has a chance to come back in a few weeks and with games vs Tampa and Cleveland the next two weeks, this team could push themselves right back into the playoff race. Packers are the side here. |
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12-02-17 | Miami-FL +10 v. CLEMSON | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami Hurricanes (+) over Clemson Tigers, Saturday at 8:00 ET: Game #325 |
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11-26-17 | Titans v. Colts +3.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis +3.5 over Tennessee, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - AFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH The Colts are in a good spot here. They are rested and ready to go off a bye week and they are actually playing solid football right now. Their last 3 games were a 1-point loss @ Cincy, a win @ Houston, and a 3-point loss here vs Pittsburgh. Their tight loss vs Pittsburgh was a game the Steelers never led until the final FG of the game as time expired. Tennessee has had zero success here in Indy losing 11 straight. Not only has this team not won here in over a decade, t’s also a Titans team that isn’t very good on the road period. Their last 4 road games were a loss @ Miami, they were destroyed @ Houston, barely won in OT (12-9 final) @ Cleveland, and then just lost 40-17 @ Pittsburgh. They have also lost 15 of their last 16 AFC South road games! These two met in mid October in Tennessee and the Titans won 36-22. However, that was a very deceiving final as the game was tied at 22-22 with just 6:00 remaining in the game. That was also when the Colts weren’t playing nearly as well as they are right now. That win over Indy gave Tennessee a 1-16 record vs Indy over their last 17 meetings. That’s right, one win for Tennessee in 17 meetings. This Titan team is overrated with a 6-4 record but a -31 point differential which ranks 10th in the AFC! We feel the Colts with an improving QB Brissett has a great shot to win this game. Even if they don’t, we have more than a FG cushion with the number. Colts are the play here. |
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11-25-17 | Washington State +10.5 v. Washington | Top | 14-41 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (+) over Washington Huskies, Saturday at 8:00 ET: Game #183 |
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11-23-17 | Chargers v. Cowboys +1 | Top | 28-6 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 19 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Dallas Cowboys (+1) over the LA Chargers, Thursday 4:30PM ET - The value in the number here is undeniable as the Cowboys, even without Elliott, should be a 3 or more point favorite. The Cowboys at home against the Packers with Rodgers were a 3-point chalk. The Chargers were at Oakland and the NY Giants a few weeks back and were 3-point dogs. I'll repeat that...the Chargers were 3-point underdogs AT THE NY GIANTS who are one of the 4 worst teams in the league! Dallas is coming off two horrible showings against two hot teams right now which has caused the oddsmakers to over-adjust this line. The Cowboys went to Atlanta 2 weeks ago and faced a desperate Falcons team and were blown out. Last week they played arguably the best team in the NFL, Philly, off a bye week. L.A. blew out the Bills on the scoreboard but benefitted from 6 turnovers and only outgained the Bills by just 36 yards. There is a big discrepancy in the strengths of schedule here as the Chargers have played the easier schedule yet their season stats are near identical. The Cowboys will hopefully have left tackle Smith back here but it shouldn't matter as the Cowboys rushing attack (4th in NFL at 140RYPG) should exploit the NFL's WORST rush defense of the Chargers (allowing 139RYPG). |
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11-23-17 | Vikings -3 v. Lions | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -3 over Detroit, Thursday at 12:30 PM ET The Vikes have been waiting for this one since losing at home to Detroit 14-7 back on October 1st. Minnesota outgained Detroit in the game and held the Lions to just 3.7 YPP while averaging 5.4 YPP. The difference were the turnovers as Minnesota had 3 and Detroit had none. The Vikings led at halftime but 2 fumbles in the 3rd quarter led to all of the Lions 11 second half points. Detroit had to come struggled each of the last 2 weeks to get by Cleveland at home and @ Chicago last Sunday. They were outgained by both of those struggling offenses and trailed by double digits in each. Get behind here and they are in big trouble against a Minnesota defense that is playing shut down ball right now. Last week they completely stymied the #1 scoring offense in the league holding the Rams to 7 points and only 254 total yards. Minnesota’s offense continues to click as the put up 24 points vs a very good Rams defense in that easy win. QB Case Keenum continues to play at a very high level as he now ranks 2nd in the entire NFL in QBR behind only Deshaun Watson who is out for the season. Detroit has been beating the poor teams but struggling against good teams. They have already lost at home to Atlanta, Carolina, and Pittsburgh with their home wins coming against Arizona & Cleveland. The Vikings are playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now winning 6 straight games. They are better than Detroit on BOTH sides of the ball (5th in total offense to 16th AND 5th in total defense to 23rd for Detroit) and should have a little extra edge after losing at home 6 weeks ago. Minnesota wins and covers here. |
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11-19-17 | Lions v. Bears +3 | Top | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago +3 over Detroit, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Lions won at home 38-24 over a terrible Cleveland team last week but it wasn’t nearly that easy. Detroit was actually down 24-17 late in the 3rd quarter and they were outgained by a bad Cleveland offense in that game. Speaking of the bad Browns offense, they put up over 400 yards last week on Detroit including 200 on the ground and were +10 in first downs. On top of that, Cleveland blew a number of scoring chances including getting inside the Detroit 5-yard line twice and coming away with zero points. Definitely a deceiving final score and a game Cleveland could have won. Chicago has been more than competitive at home. They beat both Carolina and Pittsburgh here and lost tight games to Minnesota & Atlanta. Last week was the first time they were favored at home this year facing Green Bay and the laid an egg losing 23-17. Detroit has a winning record at 5-4 but we feel they are overvalued because of that. The fact is they have been outgained in 6 of their last 8 games. On the season they are -14 YPG and -0.2 YPP which is very similar to Chicago who is -24 YPG and -0.2 YPP on the year. Chicago at home, getting points, with a big edge on defense (9th overall to 23rd) is a solid play. The Bears are 8-1-1 ATS their last 10 as a home dog and Detroit is just 2-13 ATS after scoring 35+ points. Take Chicago. |
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11-18-17 | Arizona University v. Oregon -2.5 | Top | 28-48 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon Ducks (-) over Arizona Wildcats, Saturday at 7:00 ET: Game #366 |
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11-16-17 | Titans v. Steelers -7 | Top | 17-40 | Win | 105 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -7 over Tennessee, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET The Steelers have always excelled at home, the problem is, they’ve played very few home games this year. Of their 9 games on the season, only 3 have been at Heinz Field. They are 2-1 here this year with blowout wins over Minnesota & Cincinnati and an embarrassing loss to Jacksonville who’s turning out to be much better than most expected. Even in their loss to the Jags, the Steelers had more yardage but Roethlisberger threw a whopping 5 picks including 2 that were returned for Jacksonville TD’s. We don’t think the Titans are as good as their 6-3 record right now. We realize they’ve won 4 straight, however 4 of their last 5 games have come against 4 of the NFL’s worst teams (Miami, Cleveland, Cincy, & Indy). Last week at home they scored a TD with 36 seconds left to beat a struggling Cincy team 24-20. A week earlier at home they squeaked by Baltimore 23-20 despite getting outgained by almost 100 yards. In their last 3 road games they were creamed @ Houston 57-14, lost @ Miami, won @ Cleveland in OT. The Steelers played terrible last weekend @ Indy but picked up the 20-17 win. We expect a motivated effort back at home after that performance. The Pitt defense has been lights out this year (4th in the NFL in defensive efficiency) and we have a big edge on that side of the ball as Tennessee hasn’t been great (23rd in defensive efficiency). Offensively Pitt has struggled at times but is much more comfortable at home. They have the playmakers to put up big numbers here against the Titans. Tennessee relies heavily on the run and Pitt knows that. Look for them to shut down the run and force Tennessee to try and beat them through the air. That will be tough as Mariota is not at 100% with ankle and shoulder problems. It’s showed on the field as he’s failed to throw for 200 yards in 4 of their last 6 games. Pitt’s pass rush is among the best in the NFL ranking in the top 3 in sacks per game and sack percentage so when Mariota does throw, he’ll have pressure on him. Pitt is a money making 84-56-5 ATS (60%) the last 38 seasons as a home favorite of -3 to -7 and they have the advantage playing at Heinz Field on a short week. The Steelers roll up a big win tonight. |
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11-12-17 | Saints v. Bills +3 | Top | 47-10 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
Buffalo +3 over New Orleans, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Bills are in the much better situational spot here. They are coming off a Thursday night game so a full 10 days to prepare while Saints will be playing for the 5th consecutive week. Buffalo is being overlooked here. They are 5-3 one the season including a perfect 4-0 at home with a +32 point differential. Their defense this season has been solid this season but very good at home allowing 16 points or less in 3 of their 4 games. Buffalo is also off their most disappointing performance of the season, a Thursday night loss @ Jets, so we expect a very solid game by the host in this game. New Orleans has won 6 straight games but they’ve had a very favorable schedule over the last month with 3 home games and their only road tilt coming @ Green Bay with Rodgers on the shelf. Their defense has been playing very well however, they’ve done so over the last month vs a bunch of bad offenses, including Miami (last in NFL in total offense), Green Bay (who looks just as bad without Rodgers), Tampa (whose been terrible offensively over the last month), and Chicago (who has scored 4 offensive TD’s over their last 4 games). Now they face a rested Buffalo offense who has averaged 28 PPG on their home field. We think the Saints are a bit overvalued right now and this is a tough spot for them. Buffalo is 11-4 ATS their last 15 as a home underdog or 3 points or more and we like them here. |
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11-11-17 | TCU v. Oklahoma -6.5 | Top | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma Sooners (-) over TCU Horned Frogs, Saturday at 8:00 ET: Game #160 |
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11-09-17 | Seahawks -5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Seattle -5.5 over Arizona, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET This is a huge game for the Seahawks after losing at home last Sunday to Washington. While they came up short on the scoreboard losing 17-14 they dominated the stat sheet outgaining the Skins by almost 200 yards. The Seattle offense crossed midfield into Washington territory on 9 of their 14 drives so they obviously blew a number of opportunities (3 missed field goals included). Now they sit a full game behind the Rams for the NFC West division lead and cannot afford a loss here. Luckily for them they are playing a bad Arizona team. The Cards are 4-4 but their wins have come against SF (twice), Indy, and Tampa who have a combined 5-21 record. Their other opponents (Dallas, Detroit, Philadelphia, and the LA Rams) have all beaten the Cards by double digits. Their point differential in those four losses, the only four winning teams they’ve played, is -80 points. The Cards are a limited offense that averages just 17 PPG. Now even more so with starting QB Carson Palmer sidelined and back up Drew Stanton under center. Stanton is a career 52% passer with 5 more interceptions (21) than TD’s (16). Because of that this offense has to rely heavily on RB Adrian Peterson and Seattle knows that. Peterson carried the ball a whopping 37 times last Sunday in San Francisco and on a short week, it might be tough for the aging RB to come back and be effective on Thursday night. Seattle has won 3 of their last 4 here in Arizona and the only game they didn’t win in that stretch was their 6-6 tie last season. The Seahawks have been great bouncing back after a loss winning 18 of their 22 games following a setback. We view Arizona as one of the worst teams in the NFL and Seattle one of the best. The Cards are off a win vs an 0-9 SF team while Seattle is off a loss. This sets up very nicely to lay the points with the Seahawks. |
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11-06-17 | Lions v. Packers +3 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -125 | 57 h 33 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Green Bay +3 over Detroit, Monday at 8:30 PM ET Situationally this game absolutely favors the Packers. They are coming off a bye which gave them 2 full weeks to cater their offense to and develop a gameplan for QB Brett Hundley. That’s also a big disadvantage for the Detroit defense who will see things from Green Bay that they can’t prepare for from their film study. Let’s not forget before their break GB played host to New Orleans who is one of the hottest teams in the NFL and led 17-16 into the 4th quarter. Packers will be ultra motivated here after hearing for weeks they cannot win without Rodgers in the line up. They have absolutely dominated the Lions here at Lambeau Field winning 25 of the last 26 meetings and Detroit was not favored in ANY of those games. The Lions are just 3-4 on the year and they are getting outgained by an average of 0.7 YPP. Detroit is 22nd in YPP offense putting up only 4.9 and they are 27th in the same stat defensively allowing 5.6. The Cats have now lost 4 of their last 5 games and this team can’t be trusted to lay points on the road where they are 1-6 ATS in that situation since November of 2013. Now playing a rested team that will be well prepared we expect another loss for the Lions here. |
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11-05-17 | Raiders v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 34 h 37 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Miami +3 over Oakland, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET We expect the Fins to come out with some serious passion here after getting thoroughly embarrassed in their most recent game @ Baltimore. They lost that game 40-0 on a Thursday so they’ve had 10 days to steam about that one and get ready for Oakland. Remember Miami was playing quite well leading into that terrible loss winning 3 straight. While their offense has struggled at times Miami had scored 51 points in their previous 2 games leading into their Baltimore loss. They also get Jay Cutler back at QB here which will help. Not sure why the Raiders would be a full FG favorite on the road in this one. They are coming off a 34-14 loss @ Buffalo last week and are now on the east coast again. They did stay east but that often times messes up a team’s routine. On top of that Oakland has lost 5 of their last 6 games with their only win coming at home by a single point. This isn’t the Oakland of last year. Much has been made of Miami’s offense being stale but let’s not forget the Raiders have scored 17 or fewer points in 5 of their last 6 games. Miami’s defense is very good ranking 7th in the NFL so we don’t look for the Oakland offense to get on track here. Oakland laying points on the road with a struggling offense and a defense that is ranked 26th in the NFL is not a good combination. Take the points on Sunday night. |
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11-05-17 | Redskins v. Seahawks -7 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -113 | 29 h 11 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Seattle -7 over Washington, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET The Redskins are a mash unit right now especially on the offensive line. 4 of their 5 starters up front are questionable in this game. The Skins have lost 3 of their last 4 games with all 3 setbacks coming by at least 9 points. They are also in a tough situational spot coming off two huge NFC East games vs Dallas & Philly, both losses, and now they must travel across the country. The Seattle offense which struggled early in the season is now starting to heat up. After scoring just 9 & 12 points in their first two games of the season, the Seahawks have averaged 31 PPG since. They’ve also won 5 of their last 6 games. We expect the Seattle defense to come out with a chip on their shoulder as well after allowing Houston to score 29 points on them here at home in their most recent game. Before that, this defense has allowed more than 18 points only once all season. Seattle is simply a fantastic home team. Since Russell Wilson took over at QB they are 42-6 here at home (29-17-2 ATS). Better yet, if they are favored at home by a TD or less this team is 25-9-1 ATS! Washington, on the other hand, has won only 9 of their last 32 road games. Seattle is at home for the 2nd straight game and they roll here. |
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11-04-17 | Virginia Tech v. Miami-FL | Top | 10-28 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech Hokies (-) over Miami Hurricanes, Saturday at 8:00 ET: Game #341 |
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11-02-17 | Bills v. Jets +3.5 | Top | 21-34 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
We will play on the NY Jets (+3) over the Buffalo Bills - 8:25 PM ET - The Bills are 5-2 SU on the year and looking like a playoff team in the AFC. The Jets are 3-5 SU and, well umm, look like the Jets. But seriously you should never bet games on just the 'eyeball' test as some underlying numbers tell us the Bills aren't as good as their record while the Jets are actually a little better than theirs. Buffalo has been outgained by foes in 6 of seven games this season and in those six games they were outgained by an average of 83YPG. The Bills offense is 28th in the NFL in total yards per game at just 303 and 25th in yards per play at 4.8YPPL. The Jets on the other hand are averaging more total yards per game at 307.9YPG and rank near the league average in yards per play at 5.2YPPL. Both teams have similar defensive statistics too with the Bills allowing 346.6YPG compared to the Jets 361.4YPG. They each allow right around 5.4YPPL defensively too. So why is there a drastic difference in their records and perceptions of their overall teams? Buffalo has 17 takeaways this season and just 3 turnovers while the Jets have 13 takeaways but 14 turnovers. The value in the number is clearly with the Jets in this game as they were +7 at Buffalo in the season opener and are now +3 at home. Take the home dog on a short week playing with revenge! |
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10-30-17 | Broncos +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
We're going to grab the points and the Broncos (+) on Monday night is this big AFC West rivalry. Both teams come into tonight's game having lost two straight games but both results were misleading. Denver outgained both foes but turned the ball over 6 times and blew several scoring opportunities. Kansas City on the other hand was outgained in both games by a total of 268 yards and they were plus one in total turnovers. In terms of defensive efficiency ratings the Broncos have a decided advantage with the 4th best DEFF rating in the NFL compared to KC's 24th. The Broncos allow just 4.5 yards per play compared to 6.1YPPL allowed by the Chiefs. Denver's defense is giving up just 258YPG this season which is on par with the Steelers who just held KC to 13 points and 251 total yards. Offensively the Chiefs hold an edge with the #1 ranked offensive efficiency numbers while the Broncos are 22nd. A big reason for Denver's poor overall OEFF numbers are their turnovers this season so if they value the football, it will translate to better numbers and obviously more wins. This is a great spot to take an undervalued 'dog' with a great defense getting a full TD. The Broncos are 14-5 ATS (15-4 SU) their last 19 division road games. Since 2012, home division favorites on MNF are a horrendous 3-12-2 ATS (20%) and road teams on MNF that have lost 2+ consecutive games are 11-3 ATS. In this rivalry the Chiefs have been favored by 7 or more points just three times since 1980. The play here is the DOG and points - DENVER BRONCOS! |
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10-29-17 | Vikings -10 v. Browns | Top | 33-16 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -10 over Cleveland, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET The Browns have been competitive at times at home this year, but when they venture away from Cleveland they have been beaten soundly. The only exception to that is a 3-point loss @ Indy who many feel is the worst team (yes worse than Cleveland) in the NFL. Their other games away from home were double digit losses @ Baltimore and @ Houston. The Browns are off a disappointing OT home loss to Tennessee. Now they must travel to London in a somewhat meaningless game for a team that is 0-7. The Browns have now lost 23 of their last 24 games and they are just 8-16 ATS in those games. This is a team that has led for a grand total of 2 SNAPS this season. Their offense has been terrible topping 18 points only once the entire season. They rank dead last in the NFL in offensive efficiency. On top of that they will be without their best offensive linemen (Joe Thomas) who is arguably their best player as well. It won’t get any better here facing a Minnesota defense that ranks 4th in total defense (283 YPG) and YPP defense (4.6). Only one team has reached 20 points on this Viking defense this year and that was Pittsburgh. The Vikings are fighting for the NFC North title while Cleveland has nothing to play for in London. We expect the Browns to do next to nothing offensively and Minnesota to pick up an easy win early on Sunday. |
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10-28-17 | Mississippi State v. Texas A&M +2.5 | Top | 35-14 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas A & M Aggies (+) over Mississippi State Bulldogs, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET: Game #208 |
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10-23-17 | Redskins +5 v. Eagles | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -113 | 56 h 28 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Washington +5 over Philadelphia, Monday at 8:30 PM ET These two met in the season opener and Philly won 30-17. Since that opening weekend loss, the Skins have lost only one time and that was @ KC in a game that was tied with 8 seconds remaining. In their loss to the Eagles, Washington played their worst game of the season with 4 turnovers. Two of those were in Eagle territory, one was a fumbled punt, and one was fumble return for a Philly TD. In other words, the turnovers made a huge difference in the outcome of the game as they usually do. Washington QB Kirk Cousins was poor in that one but has been very good since. In his last 3 games he’s thrown for almost 1,000 yards with 8 TD’s and just 1 interception. Cousins has also been great in this spot going 9-3 ATS as a division underdog. The Eagles are getting a lot of publicity right now as the potential team to beat in the NFC. We know that situation changes almost on a weekly basis and feel the Eagles are bit overvalued right now. They did have a solid win most recently @ Carolina 28-23 but benefitted from 3 Cam Newton interceptions. Their other 3 wins, besides Washington, came against the Giants, Cards, and Chargers who have combined to win 6 games this season. As far as yards per play numbers are concerned (we feel these are most important), Washington gets the nod both offensively (6.1 to 5.9) and defensively (5.5 to 5.7). At worst, these two teams should be rated dead even on a neutral field to the 4.5 points Philly is laying here is off. Before their loss earlier this year, the Skins had won 6 straight vs the Eagles and they have a little extra motivation here. Even if they lose, we anticipate this game being close. Take the points. |
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10-22-17 | Broncos v. Chargers | Top | 0-21 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 26 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver (pick-em) over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET We expect a very good game from Denver after their embarrassing home effort last Sunday vs the depleted Giants. The Broncos were +146 yards in that game but turned the ball over 3 times (0 for the Giants) including QB Siemian throwing a pick 6. Denver is 3-2 on the season but their stats tell us they have outgained all 5 of their opponents this season. The Chargers began the season 0-4 but are back “home” off two road wins. They squeaked by the 1-6 Giants on the road and topped a struggling Oakland team by 1-point. The Bolts have ZERO home field advantage in LA this year and in fact, in the majority of their home tilts the opposing team has had more fans. You can expect the same here as the Bronco contingent travels well. The Chargers are 0-3 both SU & ATS at home this year. When these two met in Denver earlier this year, the Broncos came away with a 24-21 win. It wasn’t that close as Denver led 24-7 nearly midway through the 4th quarter when the Chargers added a few scores. The Broncos outgained LA 321 to 249 in the game. Denver has been a GREAT road team in division play winning 15 of their last 18 outright (14-4 ATS). We like the top defense in the NFL (261 YPG allowed) coming off a poor performance to win this game outright. Take Denver. |
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10-22-17 | Jaguars -3 v. Colts | Top | 27-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville -3 over Indianapolis, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Jags are absolutely the superior team here. We feel they are better than their 3-3 record while Indy isn’t as good as their 2-4 might tell us. The match up here is a mismatch. The Jags are #1 in the NFL in defensive efficiency. The Colts offense ranks 29th in efficiency. They will struggle big time to put points on the board here. Last week the Jags faced off against the #2 scoring offense in the NFL (Rams) and held them to one offensive TD. A week earlier they faced a potent Pittsburgh offense and held them to 9 points. They have held half their opponents (3) to under 10 points. Now they face the least efficient offense they’ve seen this year. On the other side of the ball, the Jags have been up and down offensively, however they should break out here against the 32nd (last) most efficient defense in the NFL. Indy has two 3-point wins vs SF & Cleveland who are combined 0-12. In their 4 losses the Colts have a point differential of minus 82! Jacksonville is off a home loss to the Rams, a game in which they outgained LA by 140 but allowed 2 non-offensive TD’s. Off that loss we expect a big performance here. The Jags outgain their opponents 5.4 YPP to 5.1 for a +0.3 YPP differential. The Colts have been outgained 5.2 YPP to 6.4 YPP for a -1.2 YPP differential. Jacksonville is 2-1 on the road this year with wins @ Pittsburgh and @ Houston. This is a low number and we like the Jaguars to control this game and get the easy cover. |
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10-21-17 | Colorado v. Washington State -9.5 | Top | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 32 h 5 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 10:45 PM ET: Game #412 |
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10-15-17 | Giants v. Broncos -11 | Top | 23-10 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver -11 over NY Giants, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET The Giants are in trouble here. They are 0-5 and have lost 3 straight down to the wire games. Now after essentially having their playoff hopes dashed they must travel west to face a rested Denver team. How is NY going to score in this one? They can’t run the ball (just 77 YPG) and that won’t change here facing a Denver team that leads the NFL allowing only 50 YPG on the ground. So they must lean on an immobile Eli Manning to try and make something happen vs a very active and athletic Denver front 7. Manning was sacked 5 times last week at home vs the Chargers and we can expect the same here. The problem is, he has nobody left to throw to. His 3 top WR’s (Beckham, Marshall, and Shepherd) are all out. Denver’s offense will run the ball and work in play action to put points on the board here. They are facing a tired Giants defense that has faced an average of 67 plays per games this year (3rd most in the NFL). That tired defense has allowed at least 24 points in all but one game this year. If Denver gets to 24 as we expect, that should be enough to cover here vs a Giant offense that will struggle big time in this game. |
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10-14-17 | Auburn v. LSU +7.5 | Top | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LSU Tigers (+) over Auburn Tigers, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #208 |
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10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Carolina -3 over Philadelphia, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET The Panther defense has played very well all season. They just needed the offense to catch up and when and if that happened, this team would be very good. We’ll it’s happened. After scoring only 45 points over their first 3 games, the Cats have scored 60 points their last two games. Those were both road wins over New England and Detroit. After struggling early this year, QB Cam Newton has really found his groove throwing for almost 700 yards, 6 TD’s and just 1 pick his last 2 games. Last week’s win @ Detroit was close on the scoreboard (27-24) but Carolina dominated the game. They led 27-10 entering the 4th quarter and outgained the Lions by 120 yards. Philly comes in with a 4-1 record, however 3 of their 4 wins have come against the Giants, Chargers, and Cards who have a combined 3-12 record. This is also a tough spot for the Eagles going on the road in a short week. It’s also their 4th road game already this year. Carolina has played the tougher schedule and have averaged 5.5 YPP while allowing 5.1 (+0.4 YPP differential). Philly has played three of the worst teams in the NFL and they are averaging 6 YPP but allowing 6.2 (-0.2 YPP differential). Big edge defensively to the home team here and while the Eagles have better numbers offensively, the way Carolina is playing on that side of the ball right now we’re not sure there is any edge. Also, it looks like Philly will be without their best offensive lineman Lane Johnson who is in concussion protocol. That would be a huge blow to the Eagle offense. Carolina is the play on Thursday night. |
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10-08-17 | Chiefs v. Texans +1 | Top | 42-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 12 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Houston +1 over KC, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET KC comes into this game with a perfect 4-0 ATS record and we feel they are overvalued at this point. Last week was one of the luckiest covers you’ll ever see as the Chiefs scored 9 points in the final 7 seconds of the game to win and cover 29-20 vs Washington. Their defensive TD as time expired was the only time KC was covering the entire game. Since their switch to Watson at QB, Houston is really playing well. They are 3-0 ATS with Watson at the helm and 2-1 SU. Their lone loss was @ New England 36-33 in a game they really outplayed the Pats. The outgained and had more first downs than NE in that game on the road. Last week, Houston beat a very solid Tennessee team 57-14 outgaining them 445 to 195! After scoring only 1 TD on 203 total yards in their opening season loss to Jacksonville, the Texans have averaged 376 YPG and 34 PPG under Watson’s direction. So the offense is clicking right now and should do well against a KC defense that ranks 26th in the NFL in total defense. Houston rates a large edge defensively (5th in the NFL) and has one of the top defensive lines in the league. That should give KC all kinds of problems with an offensive line that rates one of the weakest pass protecting unit which has already given up 16 sacks on the season. Houston won here vs KC last year 19-12 and we really like them to win this game at home on Sunday night. |
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10-08-17 | Bills v. Bengals -3 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -3 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Bills are a false 3-1 in our opinion. They’ve been outgained in 3 of their 4 games (only outgained the Jets) and they are poor offensively scoring only 18 PPG on 4.6 YPP. Last week they topped Atlanta on the road but a close look at the boxscore reveals they were thoroughly outplayed in that game as they were outgained by 100 yards and had 10 fewer first downs. Same with the week before at home vs Denver. Thus we have a team that has won 2 straight games outright as an underdog but has been outplayed on the field. That creates a perfect spot to go against them here. On top of that, Buffalo is playing back to back road games here and this is their 3rd trip away from home in their first 4 weeks of the season. Cincinnati is an undervalued team in our view. They started the season scoring only 9 total points in their first 2 games. They fired their offensive coordinator and replaced him with a veteran (Zampese) and they have responded with 55 points their last 2 games. Their offense is starting to click. Their defense is very solid having held 3 of their 4 opponents to 20 points or fewer. The also get one of the top defensive players back here (LB Burfict). There is a reason the 1-3 team (Bengals) are favored over the 3-1 team here. We like this spot and we’ll take Cincinnati. |
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10-07-17 | Kansas State v. Texas -4 | Top | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
#408 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON: Texas Longhorns (-) over Kansas State, 7 PM ET - Sometimes long-term trends are so well-known that they actually create big value in the other direction when the situation is right and that is precisely the case here. Kansas State, under head coach Bill Snyder, has long been known as a great play on team when they are a road dog. However, in this particular case, they are in the wrong place at the wrong time. The Longhorns have played a much tougher schedule than the Wildcats have so far this season but certainly they won't be worn down here. Remember the great game the Longhorns played against USC earlier this season? That was in mid-September and was followed by a bye week. Then last week Texas finally played again and it was a Thursday game (solid win at Iowa State) so they do have a rest edge over a Kansas State team that played on Saturday. The Wildcats got the win over Baylor Saturday but the Bears have been dreadful this season. That's noteworthy because the Wildcats other wins have come over Central Arkansas and Charlotte! Kansas State lost their only tough game (Vanderbilt) and certainly the Commodores are not comparable to the Southern Cal team that the Longhorns went toe to toe with. Texas got surprised by Maryland in the season opener which proved to be a wake up call, and a good thing for the Horns. Since that loss, the Longhorns are on a perfect 3-0 ATS run. The rush defense of the Longhorns has been fantastic (41 yards per game) in their last 3 games and has allowed under 100 yards per game on the season which is 15th best in the nation. That is a major problem for K-State which averages 43 rushes per game (32nd in the country) and 243RYPG (16th). But the Wildcats impressive rushing stats are very misleading as they’ve faced Baylor (120th in rush D), Vandy (116th) and Charlotte (93rd). Kansas State to have to try and beat the Longhorns through the air with a passing attack that is averaging just 128 passing yards per game against FBS schools (Central Arkansas is an FCS school) and is 122nd out of 130 schools. The Cats are going to struggle to move the ball here and they only scored 7 points in their lone road game this season while UT has put up 97 points in their two home games this year. Home team has covered 5 straight....Look for a home blowout in this one. |
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10-01-17 | Colts v. Seahawks -13 | Top | 18-46 | Win | 100 | 31 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Seattle -13 over Indianapolis, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET The Seattle offense finally started clicking last week putting up 27 points in Tennessee on 6.3 yards per play. The defense on the other hand was disappointing allowing 33 points to the Titans. You can bet they’ll play with passion this week after last week’s ugly performance. They should get it right against a Colt offense that has been held to 13 or under in 2 of their 3 games. Last week Indy scored 31 points on the Browns but that was the Browns. The fact is, they’ve been outgained in all 3 of their games and quite significantly vs the Rams (-148 yards) & the Cards (-123 yards). The Seattle defense allowed 17 & 9 points their first two games of the season and we like them to hold Indy down on Sunday night. The Seahawk offense should continue on their upward trend vs an Indy defense that has given up at least 28 points in 2 of their 3 games. The Colts have played one road game this year and that was a 46-9 whitewashing @ LA Rams. This is a must win for Seattle with a 1-2 record. Losses @ Green Bay and @ Tennessee are nothing to be ashamed of. The Hawks are 29-16-1 ATS (65%) at home since Russell Wilson took over at QB and we think this one has the makings of a blowout. |
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10-01-17 | Saints -3 v. Dolphins | Top | 20-0 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New Orleans -3 over Miami, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET - @ London This is just a horrible spot for the Fins. Let’s not forget this team has yet to play at home this season. They opened with a win in LA vs the Chargers, then traveled east and lost in New York to the Jets, and now they head overseas to play in London. Not an ideal situation. Their defense has been poor allowing 375 yards to the Chargers in week 1 and 336 to a bad Jets offense last week. Offensively they’ve scored just 25 points in 2 games. The two teams they’ve faced are 1-5 on the season. New Orleans is 1-2 but they’ve played 3 playoff caliber teams. They lost to New England and @ Minnesota when the Vikes were at full strength. Last week they dominated the Panthers on the road winning by 21 points. Drew Brees has been sharp with 6 TD’s and no interceptions. Neither defense is very good, however we have a big advantage offensively with the Saints. They are averaging nearly 2 yards per play more than the Fins despite playing the tougher schedule. The situational edge also favors the Saints and we’ll lay the points. |
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09-30-17 | Georgia -7.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 41-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
10* TOP PLAY ON: #179 Georgia (-) over Tennessee, 3:30 PM ET - The Bulldogs have a fantastic defense and their strength on offense is running the ball. The Volunteers weakness on defense is stopping the run. You can see where we're going here! Georgia is averaging 223.2 rushing yards per game and Tennessee is allowing 242.2 rushing yards per game. While it is true that the Vols number was impacted by the fact that they got run all over by Georgia Tech's option attack in Week 1, it is also true that the Volunteers only other tough match-up was against Florida and they allowed nearly 6 yards per carry in that game. The Yellow Jackets got to Tennessee for over 6 yards a carry too. With the Bulldogs controlling the ground game in this one (Georgia only allowing 97.5 yards per game even though they've faced tough running teams), the only question that remains is whether or not the Vols will be able to move the ball through the air effectively. The fact is that this is highly unlikely. Tennessee QB Quinten Dormady is a junior but he only had thrown 39 passes coming into this season. Now that Dormady has become "the guy" for the Volunteers he has struggled against tougher competition. Even against weaker competition, UMass last week, Dormady struggled enough that the Vols tried their freshman back-up. That didn't go well either. The Vols offensive production has been a concern as they only scored 17 points last week versus the Minutemen! Also, when Dormady faced his first truly tough test he threw three interceptions at Florida. The Bulldogs will surely present the toughest defense he has faced. Additionally, the Bulldogs are highly motivated here as they have blown back to back 17-point leads to Tennessee the past two seasons. Last year's blown lead was culminated with a 43-yard hail mary pass for the game winner for the Vols at Georgia. The Bulldogs again have the talent to get up by at least 17 points on the Vols this year. The difference is that their defense is not only not going to "break" we don't even expect it to "bend". Tennessee doesn't have the firepower, experience, or talent that recent Vols teams have had when they mounted those big comebacks versus the Bulldogs. Georgia Coach Kirby Smart has this team playing extremely well and the Bulldogs won't take their foot off of the gas in this one until the final whistle. The far superior team gets a double-digit win. |
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09-28-17 | Bears +7.5 v. Packers | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Tonight we play on the Chicago Bears plus the points over the Green Bay Packers. This sets up as a potential ‘rush doubling underdog’ which is ALWAYS a solid bet in the NFL. Green Bay comes into this game with one of the worst rushing offenses in the league averaging just 69 yards per game which is 30th in the NFL. The alarming part is that the lack of a ground game has come against 2 of the eight worst rush defenses in the NFL. In comparison the Bears have the 8th best rushing ‘O’ in the league at 121 yards per game and they’ve played two of the 10 best rush defenses in the NFL. Yes, the Packers have a huge advantage at the QB position with Aaron Rodgers versus Mike Glennon but a banged up offensive line for the Packers is causing major issues for Green Bay’s offense. The Pack are one of the league leaders in total passing yards per game but also rank in the bottom half of the league in passing yards per play which is not a good sign for Packer fans. Chicago has faced two of the league’s best offenses this season in the Falcons and Steelers and more than held their own. The Bears are 12th in total defense allowing 321YPG. The Bears with running back Howard will challenge a Packers rush defense that is 21st in the NFL in stopping the run. Take the big dog here with the rushing edge support. Thursday & Monday night underdogs are 6-0 ATS this season. |
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09-24-17 | Bengals +8 v. Packers | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati +8 over Green Bay, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET Packers are really banged up. Both starting OT’s are injured which makes a huge difference. RT Bulaga may play here but he is not at 100%. LT Bakhtiari is most likely out. The top back up at both tackles spot, Jason Spriggs, was just put on IR. Rodgers will also most likely be without WR Randall Cobb. Jordy Nelson looks like he’ll try to play but not 100% Defensively they will be without arguably their top player DL Daniels. Green Bay’s offense just hasn’t been able to get in synch (19 & 23 points) and won’t on Sunday with all of the injuries. They are also playing a Bengal defense that has been very good allowing just 33 points total in their two games. The Bengal offense has obviously struggled. However they do have weapons with WR AJ Green and RB Mixon and they are bound to play better. This Cincy team is backed into a corner in a must win spot with an 0-2 record. They don’t even have to win this game, just keep it to a TD or less. 6 of their last 7 losses dating back to last year have come by less than a TD. Take the points. |
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09-24-17 | Ravens v. Jaguars +3.5 | Top | 7-44 | Win | 100 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville +3.5 over Baltimore - Sunday at 9:30 AM ET This game is being played in London and the Jags are very accustomed to this situation and setting. This will be the 5th straight year they’ve played in London. They have won each of the last two season’s here in London. Baltimore has never played here. That’s a big advantage to the Jags. Baltimore’s defense has looked great the first two weeks but let’s remember the offenses they have faced – Cincinnati and Cleveland. The Bengals haven’t scored a single TD yet this year while the Browns played most of last weeks’ game vs the Ravens without starting QB Kizer. It’s not an ideal situation for Baltimore either playing in this one off back to back big division games. Jacksonville is 1-1 and has played the much tougher opponents thus far beating Houston on the road and then losing at home to Tennessee last week. Despite playing a much tougher slate through 2 games, the Jags actually have the better overall numbers. They are averaging 4.9 YPP to 4.7 for Baltimore. Surprisingly Jacksonville is also better defensively allowing only 4.5 YPP to Baltimore’s 4.9. The Jaguars have played this Raven team very tough in recent years as well beating them two years ago and then losing 19-17 last year on a 54 yards Baltimore FG with just 1:00 minute remaining the game. We think this one stays tight throughout and the Birds are exposed as being an overrated 2-0 team. Jags get the win here. |
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09-23-17 | Notre Dame -3 v. Michigan State | Top | 38-18 | Win | 100 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
TOP PLAY ON: 10* NOTRE DAME (-) over Michigan State, 8 PM ET - Michigan State will be a popular choice here but that's because the Spartans went 36-5 from 2013 to 2015 and many still have that ingrained in their memory banks. This Michigan State team is nothing like those. Not only did the Spartans go just 3-9 last season, they only returned 9 starters for that season. Now, this season, they returned just 8 starters! As you can see this team is now a shell of what is was in the 2015 season when it faced Alabama in the playoffs. More than half of the starts last season were made by seniors so there is a lot of rebuilding for the Spartans to do this year and that "rebuilding" truly hasn't begun yet. Michigan State has only faced 2 MAC team so far this season and then had a bye week. This is completely unlike the "tests" that Notre Dame has already faced. The Fighting Irish faced Georgia (and lost a tight game to that tough SEC foe) and then faced a very tough defense last week at Boston College. The loss to the Bulldogs will help Notre Dame in the long run. Losses build character and they fought hard with Georgia. Then last week against the vaunted Eagles defense, the Irish absolutely wore them down as they pulled away as the game went on and Notre Dame piled up over 600 yards in the win. By the way, the Fighting Irish also totaled over 600 yards in their week 1 win over Temple. This is a dangerous offense and Michigan State allowed 28 points per game last season. In fact, not including a game against Furman (FCS team) and Rutgers (horrible excuse for a Big Ten team), the Spartans allowed an average of 31.8 points per game. This defense is a far cry from what it used to be but they just haven't been tested yet this season as they've faced a pair of MAC teams. Even more concerning for Michigan State is that they lost the turnover battle 5-2 in those 2 games (versus Bowling Green and Western Michigan). Notre Dame is on a mission this season and they're looking to avenge last season's home loss to the Spartans. The Fighting Irish return the favor here by winning at East Lansing. When playing with revenge and coming off of a straight-up win, Notre Dame is a perfect 5-0 ATS! This is a big revenge spot for Notre Dame and a solid spot to bet them as a very small road favorite. |
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09-17-17 | Redskins +3 v. Rams | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Washington +3 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET This line was set knowing the overreaction would come in regards to the Rams 46-7 drubbing of the Colts last week. The Rams were favored by -3.5 in that game vs a team without their QB that might be the worst in the NFL. Now they are laying basically the same number to a Washington team that was in the playoffs last year? Value on Washington here. Let’s please not anoint the Rams some fantastic offense after week one. Remember this team was dead last in scoring in the NFL last year averaging just 14 PPG. While we expect QB Jared Goff to improve he’s not going to all of the sudden light up NFL defenses every week. Goff is now 1-7 as a starter. The Skins played pretty well defensively last week however on offense they struggled to say the least. Four turnovers didn’t help their cause. Keep in mind this Redskin offense was very good last year finishing 3rd in the NFL in total yardage at 403 YPG. We expect a much better performance this week with extra motivation off a shaky effort. The Rams are not used to being in the position of a favorite. In fact, they’ve been favored just 26 times since 2011 and they’ve LOST 16 of those games outright. Washington is the play here. |
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09-17-17 | Titans v. Jaguars | Top | 37-16 | Win | 100 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Tennessee pick-em over Jacksonville, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Tennessee comes into this game with an 0-1 record while Jacksonville is 1-0. This is a huge game for a Tennessee team that has playoff aspirations and fell just short of the post-season last year. They cannot afford an 0-2 start. Despite their 26-16 loss last week to a very good Oakland team, the stats say the two teams played an even game. One first down and nine total yards separated the two teams. The time of possession was almost even as well. The Titans had opportunities to put more points on the board but settled for FG’s twice inside the Oakland 8 yard line and also missed a FG attempt. We expect this offense to bust out this week vs the Jags. The Jacksonville defense looked great last week but keep in mind that was against a terrible Houston offense with one of the weakest QB situations in the league. The Texans are also working with a poor offensive line. Now they face a Tennessee team with an up and coming QB in Marcus Mariota and one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. The Jags offense put up 29 points last week but was nothing special. They had only 280 total yards (4.7 YPP) and ran the ball nearly twice as much as they threw it (21 passes to 39 rushing attempts) in order to make sure mistake prone Blake Bortels did screw up the game for them. We anticipate them having to play from behind here which will take away that type of game plan. On top of that, the Jags didn’t get home from last week’s game until Tuesday afternoon due to Hurricane Irma. Their players had a distracting short week of practice having deal with the Hurricanes aftermath. Jacksonville is just 14-26-1 ATS the game following a SU win and Tennessee rolls here. |
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09-17-17 | Bills +7 v. Panthers | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Buffalo +7 over Carolina, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We think this is a bit of an underrated team vs an overrated team after week one. Just looking that final score might tell us that Buffalo struggled a bit with the Jets last week winning 21-12. That couldn’t be further from the truth. The Bills dominated the game outgaining the Jets by nearly 200 yards. The yards per play differential was huge with Buffalo averaging 7.3 and the Jets just 4.4. This game final score should have been much more lopsided. Carolina beat a terrible SF team 23-3. Offensively the Panthers looked bad. They had only 287 total yards in the game on 4.6 YPP. Cam Newton, who only played on series the entire pre-season due to a shoulder problem, wasn’t overly sharp vs a Niner defense that ranked dead last in the NFL a season ago in YPG and PPG allowed. The game turned out to be an easy win because the Niners offense is putrid. Now they face a Buffalo offense that has a mobile threat at QB and one of the top RB’s in the league. Also you can bet Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott will put a little extra emphasis on this one after coming over from Carolina last year (defensive coordinator @ Carolina). He also has a pretty good idea of how to slow down this Panther offense. Carolina plays host to AFC South rival New Orleans next week so the intensity factor probably favors Buffalo here. While Carolina is laying a full TD in this one, let’s not forget this team was 6-10 last year! Too many points here and we grab Buffalo. |
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09-16-17 | Middle Tennessee State v. Minnesota -9 | Top | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 36 m | Show |
#134 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota (-) over Middle Tennessee, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Golden Gophers head coach PJ Fleck is winning at Minnesota just like he was at Western Michigan! In fact he now has a regular season winning streak of 15 straight games! All but 1 of those 15 games was a lined game. Fleck's ATS record in the 14 lined games is 10-4 / 71% ATS! Look for Fleck to make it 16 straight regular season wins here while also improving that ATS run to 11-4. The Golden Gophers have a bye week on deck so there will be no holding back this week. Minnesota is coming off of a blowout win at Oregon State and their ground game really got rolling against the Beavers. The Golden Gophers are now averaging 211 rushing yards per game on the young season and, on Saturday, they are hosting a Middle Tennessee State team that is averaging only 71.5 rushing yards per game. That certainly could be an issue for the Blue Raiders as their QB is banged up. MTSU QB Brent Stockstill is a key player but even if he plays this week he is unlikely to be 100% and with struggling to move the ball on the ground or through the air it will most certainly be a rough afternoon for Middle Tennessee. The Minnesota defense has been fantastic so far this season as they have held opponents to just 243.5 yards per game. The Golden Gophers are catching MTSU off of an upset win as a big road dog at Syracuse. That makes this a very tough spot for the Blue Raiders. The past 4 seasons Middle Tennessee had back to back games away from a home a total of 6 times. They NEVER covered both games any of those 6 times! With that said, coming off of the big cover against the Orange, look for the Blue Raiders to fall flat against the Golden Gophers! Lay the big points with Minnesota as this is an ideal spot for a home rout blowout! |
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09-11-17 | Chargers +3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 54 h 22 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON LA Chargers +3.5 over Denver, Monday at 10:20 PM ET One thing we like looking for is a big edge at QB and that QB’s team is a dog. That’s what we have here. San Diego’s (just can’t get used to saying LA quite yet) Philip Rivers has had a fantastic NFL career and is one of the top signal callers in the NFL. Denver’s Trevor Siemian, not so much. While he played OK last year for Denver, he completed less than 60% of his passes. Also the big plays were lacking as Denver was 22nd in the NFL in yards per pass attempt at just 6.5. We give San Diego a solid edge offensively with Rivers, RB Melvin Gordon, and an improved offensive line. Defensively there is not as wide a gap as some might think. While Denver has a very good defense, keep in mind the Chargers D was 7th in the NFL in efficiency last year. DE’s Joey Bosa & Melvin Ingram provide one of the top pass rushing duo’s in the league. We also have a strong situational spot here as the Chargers are THE BEST road underdog since the start of the 2004 season with a ATS record of 42-18-3! Denver, on the other hand, has been a bad home favorite with a spread record of 25-44-2 ATS (36%) since 2006. We like the Bolts to pull the “upset” on Monday night. Not much of an upset in our opinion. |
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09-10-17 | Giants +4.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 3-19 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 42 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +4.5 over Dallas, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET The Giants match up very well with Dallas. Their defense, which was ranked 2nd in the NFL in efficiency last year, has shut down this high powered Cowboy offense. In fact, Dallas who had only 3 losses in the regular season last year, lost both games to the Giants. In those two games Dallas averaged just 13 PPG and 294 YPG. The Dallas offense carried this team last year while the defense was poor. If the offense is able to be slowed down, as the Giants did, this team is in trouble. We expect the Giant defense to be one of the best in the NFL again this year and we also look for their offense to be vastly improved. While Odell Beckham might have to sit this game due to an injury, remember NY added WR Brandon Marshall in the off-season which will really help. Eli is one of the top veteran QB’s in the NFL while we look for Dak Prescott to take a step back this year. It’s going to be almost impossible for Prescott to be as efficient as he was last season. The Boys are historically are one of the worst home favorites in the NFL. In fact since 2010 they ARE the worst home chalk in the NFL with a spread record of 12-30 (just 28%). On the other hand, since 2006, the Giants have the 2nd best ATS road record in the entire NFL at 53-37-3. Only the Patriots are better. We like New York to win this game outright so we’ll grab the points! |
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09-10-17 | Falcons v. Bears +7 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago +7 over Atlanta, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We expect Atlanta to take a step back this year. Their offensive numbers (34 PPG) is bound to take a step back. The previous 3 years before last season this offense average 22, 23, and 21 PPG. They also lost their offensive coordinator Shanahan which will be a factor. The Falcon defense was not good last year ranking 26th in the NFL in defensive efficiency. It was a huge problem because they scored so many points. This year we see their defense costing them many more games. This is not a one year situation as this defense was 26th last year, 22nd in 2015, and 32nd in 2014 (defensive efficiency). They will be bad again this year. We’re hearing Chicago is very excited about their defense. They had some key injuries on that side of the ball last year which hurt their production. QB Mike Glennon, while not great, will be a much better option than turnover prone Jay Cutler. It may be tough Atlanta to rebound after blowing their huge lead in the Super Bowl last season. In fact, teams that lose the Super Bowl are 2-12 ATS in their opener the following year. If that opener is on the road, those numbers drop to 2-15 ATS. We think Chicago is a bit undervalued and Atlanta is definitely overvalued. The Bears will give them a run here and have a great chance to pull the upset. Take the points. |
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09-10-17 | Steelers -8.5 v. Browns | Top | 21-18 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -8.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We hate putting ourselves on the side of the public, with a road favorite but this is one of those rare occasions we'll have to bite. Last year we made this same wager and won with the Steelers (24-9) laying 8-points in Cleveland. The Steelers will once again have a potent offense with the 3-headed monster of QB Roethlisberger, RB Bell and WR Brown and could improve upon their 7th overall offensive efficiency rankings from 2016. Pittsburgh had an average point differential of +3.8PPG last season which was the 5th best number in the NFL. Defensively the Steelers weren't the Steel Curtain of the 70's but they were still solid with the 11th best overall defensive efficiency ranking. Pittsburgh allowed 16 or less points in 7 of their sixteen regular season games a year ago. The Browns will be starting a rookie quarterback in DeShone Kizer who's in for a long day against a Steelers D that was 9th in the NFL in sack % a year ago. Cleveland was bad on both sides of the football last year and don't look to be any better. In terms of OEFF and DEFF the Browns were 30th and 29th respectively in both categories and they had the worst overall point differential in the league at minus -11.8PPG. At home the Browns lost by an average of -11.5PPG. Pittsburgh has dominated this series with a 30-4 SU record the last 34 meetings and Roethlisberger is 20-2 SU lifetime. Cleveland is a horrendous 10-44 SU their last 54 versus AFC North. We'll lay the big number here. |
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09-09-17 | Boise State v. Washington State -10 | Top | 44-47 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 39 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (-) over Boise State, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #400 |
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09-07-17 | Chiefs +9.5 v. Patriots | Top | 42-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 23 m | Show |
PLAY ON: KC CHIEFS (+9.5) over New England, Thur 8:30PM ET - We will grab the points with Kansas City over New England on Thursday night. The line on this game opened around -7 and has quickly risen to minus 9 and even some minus 10 for New England at some Sports books. We like the value with a Chiefs team that finished last season at 12-5 and are coming off an upset home playoff loss to the Steelers. KC had a +4.5 average point differential last season overall and was just one of eight teams in the NFL to have a positive road differential. 4 of their five losses last season came by a combined 13-points and they won 6 straight road contests in the back half of their campaign in 2016-17. We totally understand the public money flowing in on New England as they are off last season's dramatic Super Bowl win, and let's face it, they are the Patriots. New England had a +12.3 average point differential last year but a lot of that had to do with who they played. The Jets and Bills twice, Rams, Browns, 49ers, Bengals, Cardinals and Ravens...NONE of which had a winning record. In fact, those teams had a combined record of 40-86-2 or 32% winning percentage. Yes, New England has a very strong home ATS record but the Chiefs are no slouch with a 12-6 ATS mark their last 18 away from home. Based on last season's offensive and defensive efficiency ratings this game will be closer than the number indicates! |
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02-05-17 | Patriots -3 v. Falcons | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 266 h 29 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -3 over Atlanta, Sunday Feb 5th at 6:30 PM ET The Patriots are in their element here. They’ve already been here 6 times in the Belichick/Brady Era and won 4 of those. You can bet Brady is ultra-focused and motivated here as a win would cement him as the greatest of all time with 5 Super Bowl Rings – would be the most by a QB in NFL history. He also has a bit of an agenda here as he’s still extremely angry with commissioner Roger Goodell for suspending him for 4 games this season because of the deflate gate stuff. Goodell decided to skip the game in New England last week and go to Atlanta and you can bet that didn’t go unnoticed by Brady and the Pats. The Atlanta players have no experience with this situation. This is their first Super Bowl appearance since 1999 and the distractions and craziness leading up to the game is all new to them. That gives Belichick and company a huge advantage in our opinion. This will be the 7th time the NFL’s top scoring defense (New England) faces the top scoring offense (Atlanta) in the Super Bowl. The team with the top scoring defense has won all but one of those games. Belichick will have two weeks to get his defense ready for Atlanta’s offense which is a huge bonus in our opinion. He won’t let the Falcons go up and down the field as they did last week vs a porous and injury riddled Packer defense that rated as one of the worst in the NFL. The top 10 scoring offenses that Belichick faced this year were held to an average of 5 PPG below their season average and we’d expect the same here with Atlanta. We’d be shocked in the Falcons roll up 30+ points in this game. This Patriot defense has allowed 30+ points only once this entire season and they’ve held 13 of their 18 opponents this year to under 20 points. We wouldn’t be surprised at all if Belichick slows this game down and uses his running game to eat clock keeping Atlanta’s offense on the sidelines. The Pats are good enough to win that type of game or if it turns into a shootout, this offense CAN keep up with Atlanta. While the Falcons defense has improved late in the season, they have also allowed 20 or more points in 13 of their 18 games this season. Brady should be able to pick apart one of the youngest defenses in the NFL. Let’s not forget the Pats have lost a grand total of ONE game with Brady in the line up (vs Seattle). Atlanta had losses to TB, San Diego, Philly, and Seattle, three of those being non-playoff teams. New England is simply the better team and their experience in this situation is a HUGE factor. Lay the field goal with the PATRIOTS. |
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01-22-17 | Steelers v. Patriots -6 | Top | 17-36 | Win | 100 | 47 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY 10* New England -6 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 7:40 PM ET It’s hard to ignore New England’s home field advantage. They have won almost 90% of their games at home over the last 4 seasons (33-4 SU) but even more impressive they are 26-9-2 ATS mark (74%). Pittsburgh, on the other hand, was not a great road team this year. They were just 5-3 away from home in the regular season despite playing only one playoff team on the road (a 30-15 loss @ Miami). The Steelers averaged 30 PPG at home with Roethlisberger under center but just 21 PPG on the road. Big Ben at home had a QB rating of 117 and on the road just 78. He’s thrown 20 TD’s and 5 picks at home and 9 TD’s and 9 interceptions on the road. He’s facing a New England defense that doesn’t get a lot of publicity but leads the NFL allowing only 15.6 PPG which is a full 3 points better than Seattle who finished 2nd. Because of Roethlisberger’s road struggles we give a nice edge at QB to Brady at home in this one. Also throw in the fact that Brady has owned the Steelers with a 7-2 lifetime record throwing 24 TD’s and just 3 interceptions. Brady’s 114 QB Rating vs Pittsburgh is the second highest of his career vs any opponent. The Pats also have an edge on the sidelines. Belichick vs Tomlin is a mismatch in our opinion. New England also had an extra day to rest and prepare having played on Saturday while Pitt played Sunday night @ KC. Steelers have also been fighting the flu this week with 15 players having to sit out practice on Wednesday & Thursday with the illness. New England played poorly last week at home vs Houston and we look for them to rebound with a very good performance on Sunday. We’ll lay it with the Patriots. |
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01-09-17 | Clemson +7 v. Alabama | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 32 h 40 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Clemson Tigers (+) over Alabama Crimson Tide, Monday at 8:30 PM ET in Championship Game in Tampa, FL |
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01-02-17 | Western Michigan v. Wisconsin -8.5 | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -107 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wisconsin Badgers (-) vs Western Michigan Broncos, Monday at 1 PM ET in Cotton Bowl in Arlington, TX |
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12-29-16 | Arkansas +7 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 24-35 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY *10* ON Arkansas Razorbacks (+) over Virginia Tech Hokies, Thursday at 5:30 PM ET in the Belk Bowl at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC |
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12-26-16 | Miami (OH) v. Mississippi State -14 | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -115 | 66 h 49 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State Bulldogs (-) over Miami-Ohio Redhawks, Monday at 11 AM ET in the St Petersburg Bowl |
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12-25-16 | Broncos +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 10-33 | Loss | -100 | 51 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver +3 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET These two teams just met a few weeks ago with KC getting a tight 30-27 win. Denver is ready for revenge after outgaining the Chiefs 464 on 6.4 YPP to 273 on 3.9 YPP in that game but still coming up short. KC didn’t score an offensive point in that game until there was just 30 seconds remaining in the 3rd quarter. The Chiefs had 9 points at that point in the game coming on a safety and an 86 yard punt return. KC’s “lucky” 10-4 mark caught up with them last week as they were outgained by Tennessee and actually lost for once. This team has now been outgained in 6 of their last 7 games yet they still were able to muster a 5-2 record during that stretch. No defensive or special teams TD’s last week from KC and they weren’t able to win despite being +2 in the turnover ratio. We rate these two offenses nearly dead even. Denver has the superior defense by nearly a full yard per play. If the Broncs can limit turnovers and prevent KC from scoring defensive/special teams points, we have no doubt they’ll win this game. The dog has covered 12 of the last 17 in this series and the road team has won 5 of the last 6 outright. The Chiefs aren’t a team to be laying points with at this point. They’ve picked up 10 wins despite being outgained on the season and historically this team is a terrible 13-30 ATS as a home chalk. On top of that, the road team in KC games is 43-13 ATS over the last 56 games. Denver is in serious jeopardy of missing the playoffs after winning the Super Bowl last year. This is an absolute 100% must win for them. We think they step up and play very well in this one and even if they lose, we look for it to go to the wire. Taking the points is definitely the way to go in this one. |
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12-22-16 | Giants v. Eagles +2.5 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 105 | 29 h 28 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia +2.5 over NY Giants, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET The Eagles have obviously cooled of big time after their 3-0 start as they now sit with a record of 5-9. However this team continues to play hard and many of their losses have gone to the wire. Since their 3-0 start they have lost @ Dallas in OT, lost @ Detroit by 1, lost @ Washington by 7, lost at home to Washington by 5, and lost @ Baltimore last week by 1. Their other tight setback during that stretch was @ NY Giants where they lost by 5. A closer look reveals that the Eagles really outplayed the Giants by a fair amount in that game in New York. Philly had more first downs, a time of possession edge, and outgained NY 443 to 302 in that game. The Birds had plenty of opportunities on offense and were shutout on downs 3 times inside the New York 25-yard line. The Giants are among the worst 10-4 teams in recent memory in our opinion. This is a team that gets outgained by nearly 30 YPG and their point differential is just +22 which is good for 13th in the league and only 5 points better than Philly who comes in at +17. The Giants have been at home for 5 of their last 7 games but are just 3-3 away from home. Their road wins have come against Cleveland (worst team in the NFL), LA Rams (one of the 5 worst teams in the NFL) and 20-19 @ Dallas in the first game of the year when Prescott was making his first ever start. The line value is definitely with Philly here as NYG was favored by 3 at home in November in this match up and now they are favored by the same on the road. The Eagles will bring their best here on National TV on Thursday night in a game vs a division rival. We like Philadelphia to win this game outright. |
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12-18-16 | Bucs +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
Tampa Bay +7 over Dallas - The Cowboys have come back down to earth going 0-3 ATS the last three games after covering 9 straight before that. The Cowboy offense and QB Dak Prescott hasn’t been nearly as potent as of late as they were earlier in the season. The last two weeks the Boys have scored just 17 & 7 points not reaching 270 total yards in either game. They were just 2 of 24 on 3rd down in those two games vs Minnesota & NYG. QB Dak Prescott looks like he has “hit a wall” throwing for less than 200 yards in each of his last 3 games with just 3 TD’s and 2 interceptions in those games. Don’t look for the Dallas offense to get healthy this week as they play a red hot Tampa defense that has given up an average of only 11 PPG over their last 5 contest. They have allowed only 6 TD’s over their last 5 games and held both Drew Brees and Russell Wilson without a TD pass during this winning streak. While the Cowboys have struggled on third down, that plays right into the strength of the Bucs defense that ranks #2 in the NFL in 3rd down defense. Tampa is 5-0 both SU & ATS their last five and that includes beating two teams currently in 1st place in their divisions (KC & Seattle). This is a big game for TB as they are tied with Atlanta for 1st place in the NFC South while the Cowboys who have already clinched a playoff spot and have a nice cushion in the NFC East. We think Tampa has a great shot to win this one and getting a full TD gives us some leeway. |
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12-11-16 | Seahawks v. Packers +3 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 41 h 4 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Green Bay +3 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET This is just a HUGE game for Green Bay. They currently sit a full 2 games behind Detroit in the NFC North and with the assumption that the Lions will beat Chicago at home this week, the Packers have to win this or they drop 3 games behind with only 3 remaining. Seattle, on the other hand, has a full 3 game lead in the NFC West and with games vs the Rams and Niners still on the slate, they’ve pretty much already locked up the division. The last time GB was a home dog with Rodgers starting at QB was way back in 2009. They are 15-1 SU their last 16 home games in December dating back to 2008. The Packer offense is clicking and even when they went on their 4 game losing streak, it was mainly because of their defense that allowed 33, 31, 47, and 42 points during that terrible stretch. The defense has turned the corner allowing just 13 points each of the last two weeks. They now face a Seattle offense that is averaging only 15 PPG on the road this year. They have been held to 3, 5, and 6 points in three of those 6 games and the Hawks are just 2-3-1 on the road this season and in their one tie they were outgained by nearly 200 yards @ Arizona. They could easily be 2-4 away from home. Safety Earl Thomas was injured last week and won’t play again this year for Seattle. A desperate Green Bay team gets the win at home. |
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12-03-16 | Virginia Tech +11 v. Clemson | Top | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech Hokies (+) over Clemson Tigers, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET |
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11-27-16 | Chiefs v. Broncos -3.5 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver -3.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET The Broncos are the play here minus a short number at home. The Chiefs have won with smoke and mirrors all season long and might be the most overrated team in the league at 7-3. Kansas City has been outgained by 7 of their last nine opponents. Consider this, the Chiefs starting QB, Alex Smith is averaging just 6.88 yards per passing attempt which is BELOW Rams QB Case Keenum! The drastic difference between these two teams is defensively where the Broncos rank as one of the very best in the league and are now healthy on that side of the football. Conversely the Chiefs are in the bottom half of the NFL in most defensive categories. Denver is off a bye week (15-5 ATS off a bye last 20) and well rested leading up to this contest and have dominated this rivalry for the past several years. The Broncos have won 8 of the last ten meetings overall and covered 5 of the last seven. A recent comparison you can make on this game is this: KC went to (4-6) Carolina just two weeks ago and was +3.5 points which is the same number as today's game in Denver against a superior Broncos team. The Chiefs will be exposed today for exactly what they are which is an average team. Lay it! |
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11-20-16 | Jaguars +6 v. Lions | Top | 19-26 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
#453 – Jacksonville +6.5 over Detroit, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Detroit is 5-4 but not nearly as good as their record in our opinion. They are getting outgained by an average of 30 YPG and their point differential is -1 despite their winning record. There are 17 teams in the NFL that have a better point differential that the Lions. This team is overvalued right now. While they should be favored over Jacksonville, laying 6.5 is too much. When Detroit wins, it’s close. Their 5 wins have come by margins of 1, 3, 3, 4, and 6 in OT. The Lions have been outgained in 5 of their last 6 games and this team simply isn’t good enough on either side of the ball to beat teams handily. Jacksonville has a worse record, but their numbers are better than Detroit’s. The Jags average 343 YPG offensively to Detroit’s 337. On defense there is a bigger gap with Jax allowing only 327 YPG (8th in the NFL) on just 5 YPP (5th in the NFL) while the Lions allow 367 (23rd) on 6 YPP (25th). Jacksonville has had a number of close losses this year including by 4 to GB, 3 to Houston, 5 to KC, and 2 to Baltimore. We think they keep this one close and have a shot to win outright. Getting nearly a full TD is definitely worth grabbing Jacksonville in this game. |
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11-19-16 | Oklahoma -3 v. West Virginia | Top | 56-28 | Win | 100 | 28 h 58 m | Show |
#341: ASA 10* TOP Oklahoma Sooners (-) @ West Virginia Mountaineers @ 8 ET: Huge game in Big 12 action and we like the value here with Oklahoma only laying a small number since they're on the road for this one. The Sooners welcomed back RB Perine last week after he had missed most of the action the past 4 weeks. Perine and Mixon both had over 100 yards of rushing last week and that is a huge 1-2 punch to have when you also have Mayfield throwing for big plays all over the field. The Oklahoma quarterback had 300 yards of passing last week as he connected on 80% of his throws. The OU offense is going to provide a match-up issue for West Virginia just as it has in other recent meetings. The Sooners have defeated the Mountaineers each of the past 4 seasons and the last 3 meetings have been won by an average of 13.7 points per game with not a single victory by less than 9 points. Oklahoma has a bye week on deck so they're fully focused on remaining perfect in Big 12 action this week. West Virginia has the tougher scheduling situation as they keep going back and forth each week. They were in Texas to face the Red Raiders, then back home in Morgantown, then in Oklahoma to face the Cowboys, then back home to Morgantown, then in Texas again to face the Longhorns, and now back home again. So this is 6 straight weeks of nothing but travel for the Mountaineers and next week they head to Iowa to face the Cyclones before coming back home for their regular season finale. Even though West Virginia is 8-1 on the season, they faced a weaker non-conference schedule than the Sooners did. The only tough non-conference game that the Mountaineers had was a tight win over BYU where they were outgained by the Cougars. In their only tough conference game, West Virginia lost badly to Oklahoma State! As for the Sooners, though they are 8-2 on the season, their two losses were to Ohio State and Houston. The Buckeyes, of course, are one of the top teams in the country and the Cougars proved how good they are with not only beating OU but then rising up to beat Louisville soundly on Thursday! Oklahoma's 8 wins this season have all come by at least 5 points and we're comfortable laying the short number on the road here as OU is 12-1 SU (and 9-4 ATS) in road games the past 3 seasons combined. The Mountaineers were outgained by 153 yards at Texas last week and were very fortunate to get the win. West Virginia also turned the ball over 4 times against the Longhorns but Texas' mistakes helped West Virginia. The Mounties are unlikely to benefit from those types of mistakes this week as they have 8 turnovers in the past 3 weeks and the Sooners have a total of only 4 turnovers in the past 5 weeks. Ever since the loss to Ohio State the Sooners have looked like a team on a mission and we see that "mission" continuing to be executed Saturday night in Morgantown. Lay the short number with Oklahoma as a TOP PLAY in this one Saturday. |
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11-14-16 | Bengals v. Giants | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati (pick-em) over NY Giants, Monday at 8:30 PM ET Giants have terrible rush attack. They’ve won three in a row but they haven’t been impressive in doing so. Despite winning their last 3 games, NY has been outgained by 210 combined yards in those games. Last week in a win vs Philly, they were outgained by 140 yards as the Eagles blew a number of opportunities and should have won the game. The Giants run game is THE WORST in the NFL averaging only 68 YPG on the ground and have rushed for only 38, 36, and 56 yards in their last 3 games. They are averaging 340 YPG and giving up 371 YPG (-31 YPG differential) which tells us that this team is worse than their 5-3 record. Cincy is off a bye so they are rested, prepared, and fairly healthy. The Bengals are 3-4-1 on the year but still in the thick of the AFC North race which is led by Baltimore at 5-4. They’ve played one of the league’s toughest schedules with their losses coming @ New England, @ Dallas, @ Pittsburgh, and at home vs Denver. QB Andy Dalton has been solid with a QB rating of 100+ in 4 of his last 5 games throwing 7 TD’s and 1 interception during that span. One of his key weapons, TE Eifert, is now back from injury and had over 100 yards receiving in their last game. Cincy has a MUCH more balanced attack with the 7th best rushing attack in the NFL. The Bengals have played a tougher schedule but still have better numbers than NY putting up 395 YPG offensively while allowing 378 (+17 YPG differential). Let’s also not forget that this is the same Cincinnati team that won the AFC North last year. The Bengals are the better team in our opinion and with them coming off a bye week this sets up nicely. |
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11-12-16 | California v. Washington State -14.5 | Top | 21-56 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (-) over California Golden Bears Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #184 |
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11-06-16 | Broncos +1 v. Raiders | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -103 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
ASA's 10* AFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver +1 over Oakland, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET Even though they are now at home, the travel schedule for the Raiders has to catch up with them and we think this is the spot. They’ve already played FIVE long travel/east coast games including games @ Jacksonville & @ Tampa the last 2 weeks. They stayed in Florida between those two games so they were gone for a full week and a half or so. Those long trips so far this season should result in weary legs in their first game back. Oakland is 5-0 on the road this year, however at home they are just 1-2 and their one win was by 3 points. We still feel their 6-2 record is a bit of a “farce” as they’ve outgained only ONE opponent all season long. Despite winning 6 of their 8 games, the Raiders point differential is just +12 which actually rates LAST in the AFC West and 14th overall in the NFL. Denver is also 6-2 but they’ve outgained every opponent with the exception of Atlanta & San Diego. The Broncos point differential is +58 on the season which is 2nd best in the AFC behind New England. We have a HUGE defensive edge here with Denver in this game which is huge especially when getting points. The Broncos is 3rd in the NFL in total defense allowing a full 110 fewer YPG than Oakland who ranks 31st in that category. Denver has dominated this series winning 8 of the last 9 with the Raiders only win coming by 3 points. We like Denver to win this game outright. |
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11-06-16 | Eagles +2.5 v. Giants | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
ASA's NFC EAST GAME OF THE WEEK ASA PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia +2.5 over NY Giants, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We’re siding with the better team here getting points. This line insinuates that these two teams would be dead even (or very close to that) on a neutral field. We have Philly rated as the better team so the line value is with the Eagles in our opinion. The Eagles are just 4-3 but have the top point differential in the entire NFC and 2nd best in the NFL at +62. The Giants are also 4-3 but they are -8 in point differential. Last week, the Eagles led @ Dallas, whom many consider to be the top team in the NFC, for nearly the entire 2nd half including holding a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter. Dallas scored a TD late to push the game into OT where the Cowboys won 29-23. Expect Philly to bounce back with a big effort here after that tough loss. The Giants are 1-2 ATS this year as a home favorite and 2-1 SU with their wins coming by 3 over New Orleans and by 4 over Baltimore. New York is historically one of the worst home teams in the NFL with a 24-31-1 ATS record at home since October of 2009. This is simply a bad match up for the Giants. They can’t run the ball at all (dead last in the NFL at 70 YPG) and they are facing a Philly pass defense that ranks as the most efficient in the NFL (Football Outsiders). We look for a New York offense, that has already been held to 17 points or less four times this year, to struggle with this Eagle defense. Philadelphia has won 5 of the last 6 in this series and we’ll call for them to win again. |
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11-05-16 | Iowa v. Penn State -6 | Top | 14-41 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State Nittany Lions (-) over Iowa Hawkeyes Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #406 |
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11-03-16 | Falcons -3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 43-28 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
PLAY ON: ATLANTA FALCONS (minus) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tonight we play on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over the host Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Earlier this season the Falcons hosted the Bucs and lost 31-24 as a -2.5 point favorite. That was the first game of the season and considering how these two teams have played since then the oddsmakers have only adjusted the Falcons as 1.5 points better? Now we get the Falcons playing with same season revenge laying a short number against an inferior team. Atlanta has the #1 ranked offense in the NFL in terms of Total yards and they've accomplished that after facing Denver, Seattle and Green Bay who rank in the top 7 in the NFL in Total defense. Now the Dirty Birds face a Bucs defense that just gave up over 600 yards of offense to the Raiders last Sunday. Tampa Bay allows 5.9 yards per play which is 25th in the league and an average of 379 yards per game which is 26th worst. What makes those numbers even worse is the fact the Bucs have faced 3 of the six worst offenses in the league! Not to mention the Bucs defense will be tired here following a short week coming off a game where they were on the field for 83 plays (league average 64.3). Tampa doesn't have an offense capable of trading points with the Falcons either as they are in the bottom half of the league in Total O, 27th in yards per play and average 21.7PPG which is 19th in the NFL. Atlanta does not have a great history as a chalk but they are coming off 4 close games against good teams: Denver, Seattle, San Diego and Green Bay after beating three lesser teams by 7, 13 and 15 points. Tampa is 0-5 ATS their last five at home and have failed to cover the spread in those games by an average of 10PPG. Lay the points on the road with Atlanta. |
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10-30-16 | Packers v. Falcons -3 | Top | 32-33 | Loss | -104 | 28 h 32 m | Show |
ASA's 10* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH ASA PLAY ON 10* Atlanta -3 over Green Bay, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET With Green Bay’s injuries in the defensive backfield, this become a very bad match up for them. The Packers will be down their 3 top corners on Sunday which will make it awfully tough to slow down Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and company. The two CB’s who will be starting for the Packers on Sunday will be two guys who normally wouldn’t even see the field if the injuries hadn’t occurred. Atlanta’s offense has been fantastic this year. They lead the NFL in scoring (32.7 PPG), total offense (433 YPG), and yards per play offense (6.8). They are coming off consecutive losses so the Falcons will be playing with urgency here at home. They’ve played the 3rd toughest schedule in the NFL to date already playing 4 road games against the likes of Seattle, Denver, and Oakland. We’re not sure the Green Bay offense can keep up in this one. They rank near the bottom of the NFL (21st in total offense) and they have very little running game with Lacy & Starks both injured. WR Ty Montgomery who has been filling in at RB at times was sick for much of the week as well. He should play but practiced little this week. We have a team in Atlanta that averages over 30 PPG against a tough schedule vs Green Bay, a team that has topped 30 only once all season and they have faced the 31st toughest schedule so far this year. The Packers have been outgained in 4 of their 6 games and this simply isn’t the Green Bay team of old. Atlanta is the better team and at home here. We’ll lay the low number. |
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10-30-16 | Patriots -6 v. Bills | Top | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show |
ASA's 10* AFC EAST GAME OF THE MONTH ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -6 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET As we stated last week we thought Buffalo was a bit over rated and their recent solid play (heading into last week) was a product of their opponents. They had beaten this New England team who had a rookie QB starting, then topped the LA Rams who have very little offense, and then beat San Fran who is obviously just a bad team in general. Last week we jumped on Miami +2.5 at home over Buffalo and were rewarded with a nice win. What looked like a close game, really shouldn’t have been. The Fins dominated outgained Buffalo by nearly 200 yards a full 2 YPP. Now they have to face an angry New England team that has their 16-0 loss to Buffalo just a few weeks ago at the forefront. You can bet Brady & Company, even though he didn’t play in the first game, have been waiting patiently for this one. Belichick is a master in revenge games especially in division play where he is a near perfect 18-3 ATS his last 21 in that situation. Despite their earlier loss this season, the Pats have absolutely dominated Buffalo with a 30-3 SU record the last 33 meetings. Since Brady has returned, New England is 3-0 SU & ATS winning all 3 by double digits. Since he’s come back Brady has been lights out completing 75% of his passes for over 1,000 yards and 8 TD’s (no interceptions). The Bills offense was being carried by RB LeSean McCoy during their winning streak and with him being limited to just 8 carries last week, they gained only 267 total yards on just 4.7 YPP. McCoy is doubtful this week and even if he plays, he’ll be ineffective with a bad hamstring. With this line sitting under a TD, we really like New England in this spot. |
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10-29-16 | Nebraska v. Wisconsin -8 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wisconsin Badgers (-) over Nebraska Cornhuskers, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #172 |
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10-27-16 | Jaguars v. Titans -3 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
We will play on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday evening. Jacksonville was expected to be an explosive offensive team this year considering the wealth of talent on that side of the football they have but it just hasn't been the case. The Jags are 29th in the league in offensive efficiency, 24th in scoring at 19.5PPG (down from 23.5 last year) and average just 324 total yards of 'O' per game which is 27th in the NFL and a full 24 less yards than a season ago. While the Jags have gotten worse offensively, the Titans have gotten better. The Titans are 14th in the league in yards per game, 3rd in rushing yards per game and average more points than they did a year ago. Defensively these two team are very similar with Jacksonville ranking 9th overall in Total 'D' and the Titans ranking 10th in that same category. The biggest advantage for the Titans we feel is the running game tonight. When you can control the football and convert on 3rd downs you're going to have a much better shot at winning the game. The Titans have DeMarco Murray who is 3rd in the league in total rushing yards and leads a Tennessee offense that runs for 143YPG at a 4.9 yard per carry average. Conversely the Jags are one of the worst rushing teams in the league averaging just 76.6YPG at 3.7 yards per attempt. Tennessee converts 46.24% of their 3rd down attempts which is 4th best in the NFL. Jacksonville is last in the league in converting 3rd downs at just 27.63%. The short week and travel will certainly hurt a Jags team that is just 5-27 SU their last 32 on the road. The home team has won 4 in a row in this series and backing the home team with the short number is the way to go here. |
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10-23-16 | Chargers +6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
AFC vs NFC GAME OF THE MONTH ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego +6.5 over Atlanta, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET The Falcons are obviously much improved this year but this is an absolute terrible situation for them. If there was ever a game they wouldn’t show up or take at least a little lightly this would be it. The Falcons have played a ridiculously tough schedule over the last 3 weeks. They beat Carolina (division rival) at home, then traveled to Denver to get a win, and finally they went back to the west coast last week and lost a tight one @ Seattle. On top of that, they host Green Bay next weekend. In hindsight, while impressive, the Falcons 3 game stretch isn’t quite what we thought. Their win over Carolina looked great but the Panthers now only have one win on the season. They beat Denver which was solid, but Denver has since lost to this San Diego team as well. The Chargers are much better than their 2-4 record. They’ve led in the 4th quarter of every game this year and their loss margins have been by 6 in OT, 4, 3, and 1 point. Add to that the fact that the Bolts beat Denver last Thursday so they’ve had a full 10 days to rest and get ready for this road game. On the other hand, Atlanta is now home but they’ve been on the road 4 of the previous 5 weeks so they have to be a bit leg weary. This game is a late 4:05 PM ET start which also benefits San Diego going west to east. The Chargers are 2-1 ATS as a road underdog this year and 20-9 ATS their last 29 in that situation. We’ll call for a tight game and wouldn’t at all be surprised if the Chargers win outright here. |
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10-23-16 | Bills v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 25-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
AFC EAST GAME OF THE MONTH ASA PLAY ON 10* Miami +3 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Fins are home for the 3rd straight week while Buffalo is playing their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks. Miami finally got healthy on their offensive line last week and it showed with a 30-15 win over Pittsburgh. Beating one of the AFC favorites that handily was impressive and while QB Roethlisberger was injured, it was late in the game when Miami was in full control. The Dolphins put together an impressive offensive game with 474 total yards while holding the potent Pitt offense to just 297 yards. Most wouldn’t know it but Miami’s offense is putting up 6 YPP which is the 5th best mark in the NFL. Buffalo is 4-2 on the season but they’ve been outgained in 4 of those 6 games. They’ve been getting it done on the ground with LeSean McCoy rolling up 290 yards rushing and 3 TD’s the last 2 games. Problem is, McCoy is now injured with a bad hammy and may not play here. Even if he does, he’s not 100% and his explosiveness will be limited. That takes the biggest threat away from the Bills offense. Buffalo has won 4 straight but we are not yet overly impressed. They beat Arizona at home but were outgained and the Cards had a whopping 5 turnovers. Then they beat New England with the Pats playing a rookie QB. Then it was the “offenseless” Rams a game Buffalo was again outgained but benefitted from a pick 6. Last week at home vs San Fran who lost RB Hyde which was their top threat for an already poor offense. Now the Bills have a huge game with New England on deck and we think they are ripe for the picking. Miami wins this one. |
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10-22-16 | Arkansas +10.5 v. Auburn | Top | 3-56 | Loss | -104 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas Razorbacks (+) over Auburn Tigers Saturday at 6 PM ET: Game #401 |
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10-17-16 | Jets +7 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-28 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
PLAY ON: NY JETS (+) over Arizona Cardinals - Monday, 8:25PM ET - The value lies with the Jets on Monday night when they travel to Phoenix to take on the Cardinals and we'll grab the points. New York is off three straight losses and are in desperation mode at 1-4 SU on the year while the Cards got a little reprieve after a win over the 49ers last week. The Jets have faced the tougher schedule to date after facing: Steelers, Seahawks, Bills, Chiefs and Bengals who have a combined 17-11 record. Arizona has faced: 49ers, Rams, Bills, Bucs and Pats (without Brady @ home and loss) who are 15-14 on the year. The Cards will go back to starting QB Carson Palmer tonight but is that necessarily a good thing? Palmer has struggled throwing the football this year and currently sits 26th in the NFL among starting quarterbacks in QBR rating at 51.2. Palmer has thrown just 6 TD's to 5 INT' on the year. Yes, the Jets secondary has been torched this season but they've also faced 2 QB's that are top 7 in total passing yards (Dalton and Roethlisberger) and Russell Wilson who has a 97.2 QBR and is 12th in completion percentage. What the Jets do REALLY well defensively is stop the run. Arizona's RB David Johnson (5th in the league in rushing) will have a hard time finding room to run against the Jet's defensive front. Turnovers have killed the Jets this season but Arizona isn't much better at taking care of the football. The Jets average 2.6 giveaways per game but the Cards average 2.0. The Cardinals are just 4-9 ATS their last 13 at home when laying a TD or more. Grab the points with the Jets. |
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10-16-16 | Colts v. Texans -2.5 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 29 h 4 m | Show |
ASA's SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE MONTH ASA PLAY ON 10* Houston -2.5 over Indianapolis, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET This line on this game is a steal with a way better Texans team at home against the Indianapolis Colts. The Texans are off a loss last Sunday (4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss) while the Colts are off a come from behind win. Indy trailed the Bears late last week before pulling out a win and were outgained by 126 total yards in that game. The Colts defense is one of the worst in the NFL ranking 30th in the league in yards allowed per game at 410.6YPG. Houston on the other hand ranks 6th in total D allowing 110 less yards per game than the Colts do. Indianapolis allows 6.5 yards per play overall defensively which is 31st in the league while the Texans allow just 4.9YPPL which is 7th best in the NFL. The Titans have outgained 4 of their five opponents this season and their two losses have come to the Vikings and Patriots who are a combined 9-1. Houston’s foes this year have a combined record of 15-10 while the Colts have wins over the Chargers and Bears and their opponents on the season have a 10-17 overall record. Even without JJ Watt the Texans defense will get to Luck as the Colts O-line is again one of the worst in the NFL (allowing 4 sacks per game – last in the league). After facing a Vikings defense that is one of the best in the league the Texans find plenty of opportunities here. |
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10-15-16 | Tulsa +21.5 v. Houston | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) over Houston Cougars, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #159 |
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10-09-16 | Titans +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Tennessee +3.5 over Miami, Sunday 1:00 PM ET Both of these teams are just 1-3 but Tennessee is showing signs of being a much improved team while the Dolphins could easily be 0-4. The Titans have been outgained by 13 total yards on the season. Their running game is among the best in the NFL averaging 127 YPG (4th in the NFL) on 4.7 YPC (3rd in the NFL). Their offensive line is massive improved and ranks as one of the top 10 O-Lines in the NFL (Football Outsiders). That’s bad news for a Miami defense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in rush defense allowing 130 YPG on the ground (29th in the NFL). The Titans have shown signs of life even in their losses. They had an undefeated Minnesota team down 10-0 at half and held the Vikings without an offensive TD but somehow lost. They outgained Oakland in a 17-10 loss. Last week they were tied with @ Houston 20-20 in the 2nd half in a close loss. The Dolphins, on the other hand, have been outgained by every team they’ve faced this season including their lone win in OT at home against a bad Cleveland team. Miami has been outgained by 188 yards on the season and this team should probably actually be winless. The Fins have been horrendous as a home favorite going just 13-43 ATS their last 56 in that situation. Also tough to lay points with a Miami team that has topped 20 points only 3 times in their last 14 games. We think Tennessee has a great shot to win this one outright. Take the points. |
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10-08-16 | Washington State +6.5 v. Stanford | Top | 42-16 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (+) over Stanford Cardinal, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #407 |
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10-06-16 | Cardinals -3 v. 49ers | Top | 33-21 | Win | 100 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
PLAY ON: ARIZONA CARDINALS: This might be your last shot to get great value with the Cardinals who were picked by many experts (not ASA) to represent the NFC this year in the Super Bowl. It has obviously been a disappointing start to the season for the Cardinals (1-3) after going 13-3 in the regular season a year ago in winning the NFC West. So this week we get them as a small favorite on the road with the line being lower than normal because they will be without starting QB Carson Palmer. But is that necessarily a bad thing? After throwing 35 TD to just 11INT's a year ago, Palmer has not looked good so far this year with just 6 TD's to 5 INT's while completing just 58.5% of his passing attempts. Granted, QB Drew Stanton looked awful in his short relief appearance last week against the Rams but now he's gotten extra reps all week with an opportunity to prepare for the starting job. But we don't expect Stanton to be put in a position to carry the Cardinals this week, he'll just have to manage the game and hand the ball off to RB David Johnson. Johnson leads the NFL in all-purpose yards and is 7th in rushing yards (300yds) at 4.7 yards per carry. That is significant here as the Niners are 22nd worst in the NFL in yards per rush attempt allowing 4.3 yards per carry and LAST in the NFL in total rushing yards allowed per game at 140+. Another key factor in this matchup is the loss of LB NaVorro Bowman for the 49ers who has 236 tackles the past two seasons. Arizona is 7th in the NFL in total offense compared to San Fran's 30th overall rankings, are better defensively (8th total D versus SF #26th) and backed into a corner this early in the season. Let's not forget this Cards team was 7-1 SU last year on the road and are 12-2 ATS their last fourteen roadies against teams with a losing record at home. Arizona also has some impressive backing when coming off a spread loss and it all adds up to a win here even without their starting QB. Lay it! |
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10-03-16 | Giants +4.5 v. Vikings | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +4.5 over Minnesota, Monday at 8:30 PM ET The Vikes sit at 3-0 on the season despite scoring only 3 offensive TD’s the entire season. While we understand their defense is very good, this team needs to start putting some offensive numbers up or they will start losing some games. We think their first loss comes tonight. The Giants have a big edge offensively. They are averaging 6.5 yards per play while the Vikes are averaging just 4.8 yards per play. New York is off a home loss vs Washington and this team has the best road spread record in the NFL since the start of the 2007 season at 44-30-2 ATS. The Giants will have some extra motivation tonight as well after getting whipped by Minny last year 49-17. The game wasn’t nearly as lopsided as the score would indicate. The Vikings outgained the Giants by just 5 yards in the game despite running 11 more offensive plays. Eli Manning threw 3 interceptions while Minny did not have a turnover. Due to the turnovers Minnesota scored on a pick 6 and had TD drives of 4 yards and 18 yards. The game snowballed out of control and NY just couldn’t get back into it. Let’s face it, Minnesota is 3-0 but they’ve been outgained by an average of 30 YPG this season. They average only 265 YPG on offense (last in the NFL) and with Adrian Peterson out along with starting LT Kalil, we don’t look for them to light up a Giant defense that ranks 11th in the NFL in total defense. The Giants are 2-1 but they have a +57 YPG differential on the season. They are far superior offensively, as we’ve stated, and while Minny’s defense is better, it’s not by a wide margin. We’ll call for the Giants to win a close game tonight. |
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10-02-16 | Chiefs v. Steelers -4 | Top | 14-43 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -4 over KC, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET The Steelers will be in a foul mood here after getting embarrassed at Philly last week. The potent Pitt offense was only able to put up 3 points in that game. Expect a much better effort this week at home on Sunday Night. We are not sold on KC. They’re games have gone as follows…A come from WAY behind (down 24-3) overtime win at home against a middle of the pack San Diego team, a 7-point loss @ Houston, and a home win over the Jets last week helped by New York’s EIGHT, yes EIGHT turnovers. The struggling KC offense has scored only 22 points the last 2 weeks (subtracting defensive TD). They’ve scored a total of ONE offensive TD the last 2 games. We think it will be for them to keep up with the Steelers offense that will come out angry this week. Not only are the Steelers coming off a terrible effort last week, they also remember last year’s trip to KC where they lost 23-13 in QB Landry Jones first start of his career (Big Ben was injured). Pitt RB Le’veon Bell ran for 117 yards in that game and he is back from suspension this week. Steelers are 13-6 ATS at home when coming off an outright loss. We expect the Steeler to win this game at home and when they win at home, they usually control the game. Of Pittsburgh’s last 17 home wins, 15 have come by at least a TD. The Pitt offense rolls this week and the Chiefs can’t keep up. Lay it with the Steelers. |
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10-02-16 | Seahawks v. Jets +1.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Jets +1.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This is a terrible match up for Seattle in our opinion. First of all, you have an angry Jets team that was smoked last Sunday @ KC. The Chiefs won 24-3 but only scored 10 points on offense and were basically given the game by Jet QB Fitzpatrick who threw 6 interceptions. NY had a ridiculous 8 turnovers in the game. Expect a big bounce back at home this week. Seattle won a home game against a tired SF team that had played on the east coast a week earlier. QB Russell Wilson came into the game banged up and then injured his ankle. Even if he plays here he will not be at 100%. That’s a key in this game as we expect the Jets defensive line to control the line of scrimmage. Seattle’s offensive line is bad. They have 4 new starters from last year and they are already banged up on the line. With Wilson’s mobility compromised, this could be a long day for the Seattle offense. Similar to when they traveled to LA to face the Rams a few weeks ago, who also have a solid defensive line, and lost 9-3. If Wilson doesn’t play, which he may not, the Seahawks will go with rookie Trevon Boykin. Long travel to the east coast and an early start time don’t favor the Hawks here. This is a huge game for the Jets who are 1-2 on the season. Seattle has played the Dolphins, Rams, and Niners so far which is lower level NFL competition. They lost one of those games and struggled to get by Miami at home. New York has played Cincy, Buffalo, and KC, two of which were playoff teams last year. Anytime we get a potential mismatch in the trenches with an underdog, we have to take a long look. Take the Jets. |
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10-01-16 | Utah v. California -2.5 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 45 h 46 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* California (-) over Utah, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET: Game #184 |
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09-25-16 | Ravens v. Jaguars +1 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville +1 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Jags are now 0-2 and backed into a must win corner. We felt they would be improved this year and their stats in the first two games were actually solid. They outgained Green Bay and had a chance to win late but lost a tight one. After that emotional setback, Jacksonville had to travel cross country to San Diego last Sunday. They laid an egg getting whipped 38-14. However they did outgain San Diego with some offensive movement late in the game but 3 turnovers and a flat as a pancake showing did them in. We expect them to play much better this week and they get one of their top offensive weapons back at RB Ivory is expected to make his season debut. Baltimore is 2-0 and this game isn’t nearly as important to them. Let’s face it. The Ravens are undefeated but have played two of the worst teams in the NFL and have not looked dominant in either game. They topped Buffalo 13-7 at home and then had to come from behind to win @ Cleveland last week. The Browns just out to a 20-2 lead in the first quarter and then proceeded to lay an egg and score zippo the rest of the way and Baltimore won 25-20. The Ravens are on the road for the 2nd straight week and since 2012 this team has just a 9-16 record away from home. Jags are the play here. |