NC State -6

            Northeastern has been a darling team for ATS covers. An outright win against Miami and a strong effort against Michigan State. Yet, I see value in NC State which has been struggling to adapt to personnel changes early in-season. They'll handle business today before conference play starts.

Cincinnati -12

            Temple is right back to where they were from a talent perspective two seasons ago. While they have athleticism at the forward positions, they're not scorers. The Bearcats length overall should negate any easy baskets and second chance shots we've seen Temple able to do before non-conference play. The Bearcats do not overwhelm opponents but they have an uncanny ability to wear a team down and capture large covers in the final ten minutes.

California -7

            Jared Goff had woes all season long and did not play like the elite level quarterback that draft prognosticators foresee him as. But when you've been a starter for numerous seasons and are in the Pac-12 your going to face elite talent. California just did not have the talent to surround Goff and be successful in the Pac-12. Facing Air Force will be a different story and I expect Goff to finally have a performance worthy of a high drafted quarterback.

Phoenix Suns +8.5

The Suns suddenly continue to lose and fell to a new low by losing to the 76ers in their latest game. Yet the Cavs have lost in back to back games on Christmas Day to the Warriors and in blowout fashion to the Trailblazers. Their defense is below average currently which can not sustain with a mediocre offense. We'll grab the value off the Suns loss to the 76ers.

Cincinnati Bengals +3.5

            The Broncos downfall is one of the more peculiar stories of the season. Their strong defense has somewhat worn down from the lack of offensive support received from quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler.  How will an offense suddenly shift especially in a spot where Osweiler is dinged up and Manning is ready to come back on the field? Even at home and with backup AJ McCarron starting I'll side with the balance of the Bengals here. Grab Cincinnati to solidify their rights to a bye week on the road against the struggling Broncos.

Orlando Magic -4.5

We swayed from our backing of the Magic against the Heat but have been backing them for the past two weeks. We will in this spot after they blew a double digit lead to the Heat on the 26th. I'll expect the Pelicans to have a bit of tired legs after back to back games against the Heat/Rockets and now on the road against the Magic. Orlando had a meltdown defensively against the Heat that should turn around tonight against the perimeter oriented Pelicans.

LA Clippers +1.5

With Blake Griffin out the Clippers rose to the occasion in a come from behind win over the Jazz. Paul Pierce solidified why he should be a first ballot hall of famer in that win. This exact scenario is why the Clippers added proper depth with Pierce, Wesley J, Stephenson, etc. That combined with improved defense from the guard position leads me to believe they'll continue their road trip success tonight against the Wizards.

Central Michigan +6

            This is one bowl game where I'll put an asterisk on a defense in the Chippewas that can be supported solely by quarterback play. The Gophers are not a juggernaut scoring team which gives value to the Chippewas who are led by an underrated bowl quarterback in Cooper Rush.

Navy -3

            Something just was off with the Pittsburgh Panthers football team as the season waned on. Under a new Coach they seemed to hit that wall of change. Navy led by all time leading QB rusher Keenan Reynolds should handle this game.

Green Bay +4.5

            Green Bay is a team in December that I won't fade against. We've been 5-0 for/against them ATS this season backing them against the Vikings, Lions, Cowboys, Seahawks and once against the Broncos. They've been 17-4 since 2011 in the months of December and are getting road value here simply for the fact that the Cardinals have been a dominant team at home.  But, with two games left and Arizona up two games on the Packers for a bye there is a chance for the Packers to close out and hurdle the Cardinals with help from Seattle in week seventeen.  Get ready for the first playoff atmosphere type game since the Broncos/Patriots a few weeks back. Back Aaron $$ Rodgers and the Packers Sunday who are getting too many points.

Houston -5

            The QB carousel of the Texans has been hard to watch over the course of this season. But Brandon Weeden starting in this spot may be the conservative need the Texans need. I feel they've stirred away from the running game a bit over the last six weeks. Weeden showed against the Eagles that he can run a simplistic conservative style with a protected defense. That's the recipe here as the Texans defense led by JJ Watt is on a mission to break their funk of missing out on the playoffs

Nebraska +6.5

            A 5-7 team does not belong in bowl season but I believe we'll see a worthy effort from the Corn Huskers. Don't forget Mike Riley has a Pac-12 background from 03-14 as Oregon State Coach. Also, Nebraska has been a great team at playing close games. Five of their losses were by five points or less and all seven by ten or less. UCLA like Memphis defense is too much of an eyesore to back in bowl season.

Philadelphia Eagles -3

            Each time I've counted out Philadelphia they've showed the toughness to battle back. We did get a win last week with Arizona against them. Luckily for Philadelphia they still have a fighting chance to win the NFC East and make the playoffs.  One of the best first to second half turn around performances that still led to a loss was the Eagles against the Redskins earlier this season. Trailing 13-0 the Eagles came out of the half with a quick surge. They did fall short but look for the strengths they discovered in the second half of that game to come to the forefront here. Grab the Eagles Saturday.

Play Miami +4

            Post Christmas Day there is a pretty hefty slate of games in the NBA. Instead of predicting how a team will react post holiday, I'll focus on one team that played on Christmas Day in the Miami Heat. They're getting 4 to take on the Orlando Magic who have been a surprise this season. Yet, I like the veteran nature of the Miami Heat with Deng, Wade, Bosh, Green, Dragic, and others to come ready to play on a short trek up to Orlando. Grab the Miami Heat plus 4.

Duke +3

            Indiana has now crept up to a three-point favorite. Yes, they did have some formidable games in the Big Ten against the Buckeyes and Spartans. But there are certain teams in bowl season that nearly a full month of preparation poses a disadvantage. The Hoosiers are one in my book as they play a style of play game to game that never had any wrinkles. Look for Duke who can win in an array of ways to come out as an underdog winner.

Washington -8.5

            Chris Peterson and people in Washington know that they have a legitimate top 15 team heading into next season. Southern Miss has immense talent but this matchup just doesn't suit them. The Huskies close the season with two wins to become bowl eligible and will have the type of performance that likely will place them as a top fifteen 2016 team.

UConn +5

            UConn has the look of one of those 6-6 teams that puts on a performance far superior than what they showcased in the regular season. Teams from smaller conferences that are juggernauts point wise often are trap teams in bowl scenarios. Look for UConn to be prepared and deliver as an underdog

Houston Rockets +7

            The Rockets are finally starting to show more than flashes of what they showcased a season ago. They've held opponents to under 100 points in three of their last four games, and are also showcasing better floor spacing. At home they'll have something to prove against their in-state superior in the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs may be 25-5 but they've been susceptible to lulls at a higher rate than usual under Poppovich. For our only play on Christmas day we'll grab the Rockets +7.

Charlotte Hornets -2

            The Hornets will try and utilize their home court to get back into the swing of things against the Boston Celtics. Boston's coming off a strong win against the Minnesota Timberwolves in which they won in double digit fashion. Yet I'm not going to side with the Celtics off of one impressive performance. Before that game they were showing signs of coming back to Earth. I like the floor balance of the Hornets to get the job done at home.

Orlando +1

            Orlando has had the ability to stay in games with much improved defense led by coach Scott Skiles. Their youth paired with veterans such as Channing Frye has meshed well. Houston has teased NBA ATS players all season and this is not a spot where I would back them on the road before a holiday. Grab the Magic to play with a concerted effort for four quarters.

OKC -2

A little over a week ago I mentioned that we will look for value plays on the Thunder. That started with a -2 spread against the Memphis Grizzlies in which the Thunder put a beating on the Grizzlies. I'm not expecting a blowout in this spot but I do see value once again in a Thunder team that is shaping into form. They undoubtedly have the second unit advantage over the Clippers, and I look for Westbrook/Durant to put on their typical show. Grab the Thunder.

Pepperdine +12

Year after year there are few teams in the WCC that give Gonzaga a hard time. Pepperdine is one of them. The returning talent of Stacy Davis, Murray, and Raines give Pepperdine veteran leadership to hang with the Zags. Pepperdine is the type of team that thrives in an open style game that the Zags present. This is far too many points. Grab Pepperdine.

Was going to leave today alone but we'll play the Saints.

New Orleans -2.5

The Saints abysmal season has continued to drop their value ATS. Once a guaranteed 6 point or higher favorite at home, they've become normal to be low favorites at home now. That is the case today against a Lions team that has fallen back to Earth after a late October-early November hot streak.   I like how the Saints have not mailed in their season and have begun to look like a team that will carry momentum into 2016. While the Lions are who they are. Grab the Saints as a MNF mid-day add.

Arizona Cardinals -3.5

            Arizona has answered the bell time and time again in big spots ATS. Around a month ago they created distant separation in their division by defeating the Seahawks on the road. This team has thoughts of side stepping woes that caused their team to falter in 2013 and 2014. The Eagles may have won two games in a row but I do not believe their offense is capable of matching Arizona's. We'll grab the Cardinals Sunday night.

Denver Broncos +7.5

            The Steelers have won with so much ease that it seems like they're the AFC leader en route to a bye week. Yet that's not the case. They're 8-5 and have faced off against backup quarterbacks in consecutive weeks. Brock Osweiler will be the third but the difference for Denver is they have the top defense in the NFL. Look for the Broncos to bring the Steelers offense down to Earth a bit. We'll grab the 7.5.

Baltimore Ravens +7

            Baltimore has had a disastrous season after years of winning football. A losing record may not look good overall but surprisingly they've been a decent ATS team. Getting seven at home against a Chiefs team that is red-hot is all the inflation I need. Look for Baltimore to play another tightly contested game. Win/loss they'll fall within the seven point spread.

Boston College -4.5

            Boston College will likely be the worst team in the ACC. They've dealt with transfers and had a hard time landing ACC quality recruits. Yet a matchup against Delaware should pose value for a team that will have their best chance to grab a win before conference play. Grab BC.

Georgia Tech -1

            Georgia Tech is a team that is getting extra value based on their subpar play a season ago. Yet their returning players have matured on both the offensive and defensive end of the floor. Georgia has shown flashes of great play over the last year and a half but look for the Yellow Jackets to have the upper hand Saturday.

Utah +6.5

            Duke's had an easy cupcake schedule over their last 3-4 games. Utah has the size and experience to give this young Duke team a battle. With big man Amile Jefferson sidelined this gives the Utes a depth advantage against Duke. Grab Utah to play this game more at their pace and keep within this number.

New Orleans Pelicans +3.5

            After the Suns steep loss to the Warriors on national tv and two losses recently to the Pelicans one would believe tonight is a great spot for the Suns. Instead now is an opportune time to step in against a team that is in a bit of a funk. The Suns have been getting over achieving play from several role players and now without their success the Suns limitations are exposed.  The Pelicans have already scored over 120 points in both wins against the Suns this season. Look for them to put on another show tonight.

South Carolina -2.5

This seems to be a spot that would see South Carolina fall from the unbeatens. Yet this South Carolina team finally has the mix of talent that Frank Martin wants. Clemson may be a better offensive team than a season ago but they're no where near the level of a defensive team. That's where South Carolina will be able to utilize their talent edge and retain their current undefeated season.

Bucks +11

                        Young teams are going to come out flat on their face from time to time. That happened to the Bucks yesterday against the poor dreadful Lakers. In the last week the Bucks have traveled to Toronto, defeated Golden State and made their trek down to California. I expect them to be mentally prepared tonight against a Clippers team that still is not putting teams away. Grab the Bucks.        

Chicago -3.5

                        Chicago's inability to cover spreads has finally dropped their value down to where we can take them. Memphis had a nice win the other night against Washington but has still lacked the same defensive intensity we saw in years past. This allowed run away wins for the Bobcats and Thunder recently. Look for Chicago's offense to have things rolling finally to lead them to a big win at home.

Add Brooklyn +4

Brooklyn may just have seven wins but they're getting upgraded play from Thaddeus Young. Miami has been successful against teams that run up and down the floor. That is not the Nets strength. The Nets like to slow the game down and have tall forwards and centers that will pose problems similar to the Heat's losses to the Pacers. Grab the Nets +4 at home.

Dallas Mavericks +5

                        The Mavericks are quietly ascending in a manner that will make Mark Cuban happy. Though they've won just five of their last ten games they're doing so with veterans playing much better. Deron Williams has looked refreshed and the Mavericks are getting increasing minutes from Chandler Parsons. They have the personnel to give Paul George a great battle for four quarters. When George is average the Pacers look like a completely different team. Grab the Mavericks on value of Indiana being 8-3 at home.

Orlando Magic -1.5

                        We're barely over the 20 game mark of the NBA season and perhaps no team has exceeded expectations more so than the Charlotte Bobcats. Yet they're just five games above .500 at 14-9. Orlando is a young bunch that has won seven of their last ten games---two of those losses were by slim margins to the Suns and Clippers. Grab the value on the Magic Wednesday.

12/15 04:35 PM  NBA   (701) CLEVELAND CAVALIERS VS (702) BOSTON CELTICS (12/15  edit

Take: (701) CLEVELAND CAVALIERS 

Reason: Play Cleveland -2 Tuesday in the NBA we'll look to grab the Cleveland Cavaliers against the red-hot Celtics. Boston has enjoyed solid wins over the Warriors and Bulls recently drawing up their value ATS. While Cleveland may not be in the same ATS position they were a season ago, one of the teams they had great success against was the Celtics. Look for Lebron and company to capitalize on the road with great defense to thwart the Celtics. Grab the Cavs -2.

12/14 05:30 PM  NFL   (133) NEW YORK GIANTS VS (134) MIAMI DOLPHINS (12/11 03:26 PM) edit

Take: (134) MIAMI DOLPHINS 

Reason: Play Dolphins +1.5 The NFC East is as tough as any division to figure out. One team that I won't buy in the division is the New York Giants. Believing a team can rectify their consistent issues in the fourth quarter is not a philosophy to approach in December. The Giants have lost five leads in the fourth quarter this season and are over rated ATS currently in my opinion. Miami is also stellar outside their division this season with a 5-2 record versus 0-5 against AFC East opponents. We'll grab the Fish.

12/14 04:05 PM  NBA   (501) TORONTO RAPTORS VS (502) INDIANA PACERS (12/14 01:43 PM) edit

Take: (501) TORONTO RAPTORS 

Reason: Play Toronto plus 5.5 We're going to add the Raptors on Monday against the Pacers as a mid-day play. Oddsmakers are obviously predicting that the Raptors hit a bit of a wall after a great stretch that included last night's 20 point win over the 76ers. I don't believe that will be the case as the Raptors have added a dimension of defense that has helped boost their output. With Indiana sliding we'll take the value of five on the Raptors.

12/13 01:25 PM  NFL   (129) DALLAS COWBOYS VS (130) GREEN BAY PACKERS (12/11 03:24 PM) edit

Take: (130) GREEN BAY PACKERS 

Reason: Play Packers -6.5 I commented on two teams before their surges to snare in the Seahawks against the Steelers which rolled over to last week's win against Minnesota and also the Packers who were fortunate to defeat the Lions. Yet, they are in great position at 8-4 to not only win the NFC North but possibly challenge the Cardinals for a bye week. They face the Cardinals soon and also the Vikings. Dallas just has not shown the dedication offensively to sustain battles against formidable offensive teams. Aaron Rodgers may not be getting top notch play from position players but sooner than later you have to expect his core group of receivers to come together for a big game. A few scores here at home and that will be too much for the Cowboys to match.

12/13 01:00 PM  CB   (725) YALE VS (726) USC  edit

Take: (725) YALE 

Reason: Play Yale plus 7 USC has done one of the best jobs in the country from where they were a season ago. They've already had a solid win over Wichita State and have looked the part for the first portion of the season. Sunday though I look for a sound Yale team to give the Trojans a competitive game. Look for Yale to stay within the number of seven for a Sunday cover.

12/13 10:00 AM  NFL   (113) WASHINGTON REDSKINS VS (114) CHICAGO BEARS (12/11 03:31 PM) edit

Take: (113) WASHINGTON REDSKINS 

Reason: Play Washington +3.5 The team being counted out the most in the Redskins in the East is probably going to perform the best of the NFC East teams week fourteen. Washington faces a Bears team that is just 1-5 at home and plays to the style that their defense and offense has excelled against this season. Look for Kirk Cousins and the Redskins to get back to a better style of offense after a far too conservative game plan against the Cowboys. The Bears are unconfident at home and a bit too banged up to back Sunday.

12/13 10:00 AM  NFL   (123) TENNESSEE TITANS VS (124) NEW YORK JETS edit

Take: (123) TENNESSEE TITANS 

Reason: Play Titans plus 7 We'll buy the Titans Sunday against the Jets getting a full touchdown. The transformation the Jets have undergone under new head coach Todd Bowles and journeyman quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has been a great story. Yet, they don't blow you away with the caliber of play they've displayed in their wins. This is a value play as the Jets likely would have been 5.5 point favorites had they not came back against the Giants last week. Mariotta has looked comfortable since Whisenhunt was fired and I expect him to be able to keep the Titans in Sunday's matchup. Grab the Titans.

Oregon +3.5

Saturday we will look for Oregon to put aside a shaky week and bounce back in an underdog role against Boise State. Boise State is still getting into the ebb and flow of offense with the loss of last year's point guard Marks and the return of a healthy Drmic. Oregon should be able to snap out of a poor slump offensively and defensively that cost them against UNLV, Fresno State, and nearly another ATS loss against Navy. Grab Oregon as a Saturday ATS CBB winner.

Arizona State +13

Kentucky continues to get patented John Calipari love ATS, but lets face it this Kentucky team is lacking the same potency offensively as in years past. Arizona State has carried over the same 'play up or play down' to the level of competition they face this season. That has been represented by close losses to Sacramento State and Marquette, while also a handful of close wins against Creighton, Belmont, UC Santa Barbara, and NC State. They have the talent to hang with Kentucky for forty minutes. Don't be surprised for the Devils to be in this game until the final five minutes when Kentucky's talent outshines the Devils. It'll be enough to grab the Devils a cover.

12/11 06:35 PM  NBA   (721) PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS VS (722) PHOENIX SUNS (12/11 10:36 AM) edit

Take: (722) PHOENIX SUNS 

Reason: Play Phoenix -4 The Suns have defeated the Blazers thanks to a couple of great games in the fourth quarter. All contests have been close. Portland is a team that has to have playing a complete four quarters on their mind today. After losing both games in close fashion in late October the mindset may be that Portland has to come out and win this game from bettors. That's not the case here as the Suns have a better backcourt to the Trailblazers and are getting all around contributions from the entire roster. Buy the Suns to win their third game over the Trailblazers

12/11 04:35 PM  NBA   (709) MILWAUKEE BUCKS VS (710) TORONTO RAPTORS (12/11 10:39 AM) edit

Take: (709) MILWAUKEE BUCKS 

Reason: Play Milwaukee +8 A strong showing in recent games by the Raptors against the Warriors and Spurs has this line a bit higher than it should be. Jason Kidd may not be as pleased with his young Bucks roster as he was a year ago but he will not give up on continuous coaching for his roster. Look for the Bucks to give the Raptors a game on a steep line.

12/09 04:35 PM  NBA   (707) SAN ANTONIO SPURS VS (708) TORONTO RAPTORS (12/09 edit

Take: (708) TORONTO RAPTORS 

Reason: Play Toronto +5.5 Sometimes bettors can get caught repeatedly with top tier teams. Monday the Spurs rested a bunch of starters as Coach Poppovich likes to do from time to time. The Spurs blew out the 76ers as ten point favorites with their bench players. So you figure with the starters rested and back in the lineup they'll handle the Raptors. Not so fast. Toronto is a very solid home team that has been the most formidable team to come close to beating the Warriors twice. They also get great support from their home crowd. We'll back the Raptors Wednesday as home dogs.

12/08 06:00 PM  CB   (539) MICHIGAN VS (540) SMU (12/07 08:35 PM) edit

Take: (539) MICHIGAN 

Reason: Play Michigan +8 This would seem like the perfect spot to grab an SMU team that played at a high level last season and has carried it over to a 6-0 start this year. But I believe Michigan can hang in this game with their offensive ability. SMU wins with athleticism and defense, but look for Michigan to have success in half court sets against SMU. Grab Michigan.

2/08 05:05 PM  NBA   (507) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS (508) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES  edit

Take: (507) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER 

Reason: Play OKC -2 There comes a point were a team under achieving becomes valuable ATS. OKC is off of a close win Sunday and had lost consecutive games before hand. They're too talented to continue playing subpar. With depth on their side I find the value on the road against Memphis as slight favorites as a good spot for OKC. Grab the Thunder.

12/08 04:00 PM  CB   (521) WRIGHT STATE VS (522) XAVIER (12/07 08:25 PM) edit

Take: (521) WRIGHT STATE 

Reason: Play Wright State +21 For as good as an offensive team Xavier is, they lack defensive intensity for this large of a spread against the Horizon league Wright State. Wright State is a scrappy team that will battle for a full forty minutes. This line should be closer to 16-17.5, and I'll look for Wright State to keep this under 21. Grab Wright State.

12/08 04:00 PM  CB   (515) PENN STATE VS (516) GEORGE WASHINGTON (12/07 08:29 PM) edit

Take: (516) GEORGE WASHINGTON 

Reason: Play George Washington -11 I've been impressed by the level of play Penn State has exhibited this season but they have not faced a team close to the caliber of George Washington. George Washington has size, athleticism, and skill advantages in all phases over Penn State. Grab George Washington on Tuesday.

Dallas +4.5

The Redskins have been as dominant as you can possibly be at home, with all five of their wins coming at home. Their only loss was week one against Miami in what was a winnable game. Yet I like the Cowboys in this spot. For once the high hopes of the Cowboys have darted and been tossed out the window. That takes the pressure off of the team that had no chance with Romo out for practically the entire season. Lets not forget Matt Cassell was also thrown into the fire after being traded by Buffalo with the demotion of Brandon Weeden. Now he's had time to learn the system and also sat on the sideline for nearly two starts. He is use to a backup role and I believe coming off the bench will serve him better this game. I do not expect the Redskins to bypass their typical game managing game plan with Kirk Cousins, especially with the division lead. Look for the Cowboys to grab this cover.

12/07 04:00 PM  CB   (723) BROWN VS (724) GEORGETOWN (12/07 08:25 AM) edit

Take: (723) BROWN 

Reason: Play Brown +19 Georgetown is coming off a great win against Syracuse and has already faced a vaunted schedule with Syracuse, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Duke. Yet they're still a team adapting. Brown is a scrappy team that should be able to withstand a couple of Georgetown runs and keep this within a steep number of 19.

Lakers +9.5

            Sometimes an announcement such as Kobe's can spark a team briefly. What better way than to announce a retirement than before your team's eight game road trip? Kobe is out playing with less of a chip on his shoulder and it's making a difference for him and his teammates. Though the Lakers lost their recent game against the Hawks by 13, they were within four points at the start of the fourth quarter, and defeated the Wizards the game before that. Detroit's defense is the reason for this high line but I like the Lakers lineup to keep them within this high spread of nine points. Grab the Lakers.

Saints +7.5

            It looks like the oddsmakers have finally set a steep enough line on the undefeated Panthers to back the opposing team. The Saints may have had the best performance by an offense this season against the Carolina Panthers and that came with their backup starting in McCown. They moved the football well all game and had a chance to win late before an interception. Even though Carolina has been winning they've shown blemishes on offense that have been side stepped because of their defense. The defense can't always bail you out. Expect the Saints to battle hard in this one and cover a high number.

Raiders +3

The Raiders and Chiefs have been two of the toughest teams to figure out this season. Kansas City has stormed back into the AFC playoff picture while the Raiders are a team that has shown poise and unexpected growth. I'm always a believer in the month of December that you can find value ATS pursuing wild card teams. Separating the believers from the non-believers. KC I just can't buy. Their five wins in a row need to be looked at under a microscope. They annihilated a Lions team in Europe that immediately made changes upon coming home. Pittsburgh started third string quarterback Landry Jones and Denver started an obviously hindered Peyton Manning. San Diego has been in landslide mode and Buffalo just didn't have enough on the road in KC.   They've also won by opening up the offense for Alex Smith, which has not been his strength over his entire career. Look for Oakland to utilize their home crowd and for Carr to put up solid numbers to pull off the ATS cover.

Wofford +10

            Wofford's success against power five division one conference teams over the years has came against teams with athleticism versus speed/quality shooters. Clemson may be shooting the ball better than a season ago but that's not their true identity. Look for Wofford's solid perimeter defense to be a catalyst today as they'll be able to hold fort against the Tigers.

Colorado  -2

This yearly series between Colorado and Colorado State has produced some intense tight finishes. While Colorado State has made vast improvements to become a better contender in the Mountain West I believe it's the Buffaloes that have the advantage. Colorado has went from an individual team last year with Askia Booker to a solid seven to eight man rotation. This game will be tight but look for the Buffaloes to win in a close game as they did two years ago.

Charlotte +6

            For the third time this NBA season we will look to grab the value on the Bobcats against the Bulls. The first time the Bobcats blew out the Bulls and the second time we snuck under the number of 6.5. Today it's six again, which is odd for how competitive the Bulls and Bobcats have played. Charlotte has the personnel to match the Bulls yet again. While others may fall for the trap on the Bulls at six again, we'll snare the value.

Rhode Island -3

            Post tournaments you typically see teams come out flat. Syracuse just had that happen against Wisconsin. Though Providence has played well they're also trying to turn things in order with a revamped lineup. Rhode Island has skilled players that will make the penetration of Ben Bentil and Kris Dunn a bit difficult. Grab Rhode Island to pull this out in a good game.

Toronto +7.5

            With the Warriors at 20 wins will they experience a road hangover finally at the hands of the Raptors? Toronto nearly defeated the Warriors on their home floor a few weeks ago, which is why I see value on the Raptors today. We've picked our spots well to go against the Warriors this season and have landed three covers. Lets get our fourth.

UL Lafayette -2

            Fans of the Rajun Cajuns are unaccustomed to the struggles they've witnessed from their team this season. The offense has sputtered in close losses to South Alabama and New Mexico State that was topped off by a 21-point loss last week to Appalachian State. To end a three game skid they'll look to do so against Troy which has also had a less than stellar season. The personnel is there for Lafayette. Expect them to grind out another close game but this time pull out the W against a Troy team that will not have an answer for Elijah McGuire.

UL Monroe +2

            Monroe has been an absolute untrustworthy team for the month of November ATS, and has had an abysmal year with a record of 1-11. Yet I like the effort in the way they battled back from a big deficit last week to Hawaii to cover in a two-point loss. Typically you would not find value on a 1-11 team that's just a two-point underdog at home. Monroe will battle hard in this one and get their second victory of the season with a win over New Mexico State which should be relenting on defense

Detroit +4.5

            On Saturday's college basketball card we will be looking to play Detroit. Detroit has struggled this season and is coming off a beat down loss to Vanderbilt. This was expected after losing key starters from last season including Juwon Howard Jr. Another additional loss this season has been the continued suspension of Paris Bass. Bass is an athletic forward that is sorely missed. Yet I see value on Detroit at home against a Northeastern team that won last weekend in a dramatic buzzer beater fashion over a ranked Miami team. We'll grab Detroit plus the 4.5 Saturday.

Temple +6

            The Houston Cougars and Temple Owls seemed like they were on track to battle in the championship as undefeated teams just a bit over a month ago. Two losses by the Owls and a recent loss to UConn by Houston changed all of that. Houston responded in great fashion a week ago with the return of Greg Ward Jr. to the lineup from injury. Yet often times people forget just how much can be lost by missing two games of action. This is a championship game against a veteran team in the Temple Owls. Expect Ward to show some rust and for the Owls to continue to show proper strides they've showcased the last several weeks. Grab the Owls.

Take: (535) OREGON 

Reason: Play Oregon -1 Even with the Rebels holding an advantage by playing at home and at the MGM Grand Arena, I'll look for the Ducks to hold court. They have five players averaging double figures, including sophomore Dillon Brooks who has scored over 20 points in two of his last three games. With just one loss this season UNLV may be overachieving as they've been prone to droughts on the young season. We'll grab the Ducks as slim -1 point favorites tonight.

Green Bay -3

            Thursday the Packers travel on the road to try and avenge a home loss to the Lions. Just a little over a month ago the Packers were 6-0 but have stumbled losing four of their last five games. Still at 7-4 the Packers are in prime position to go on a December run with games against the Lions, Cowboys, and Raiders before playoff position games against the Cardinals and Vikings. Look for September and October's normalcy to return from the 0-5 Lions and 6-0 Packers as the Packers start a December run.

Maryland +6

While some may want to jump on UNC with the return of Marcus Paige, I'll look for Maryland to answer the bell. They have great floor balance and just as much depth as the Tar Heels with Rasheed Suilamon, Jared Nickens, Melo Trimble, and Jake Layman. This should be everything its made out to be with Maryland holding fort in a close battle.

Pittsburgh-+1

I was one that was off the Jamie Dixon band wagon amidst his program dysfunction and poor play over the last year and a half. But somehow he has managed to right the ship and fields a veteran team that can challenge any team in the country. They're not going to blow you away with athleticism but have the balance and toughness to throw off a less physical Purdue team. Grab Pitt at +1 tonight.

NBA-Orlando +2

Time and time again we will continue to look for value on teams playing each other again in a short time span. Minnesota lost in a thrilling over time thriller by three points five games ago. Since then the Twolves have bounced back nicely rolling off three wins before Sunday's loss to the Clippers. There are just certain matchups were an opposing team holds that upper hand and I believe the Magic have that with an advantage at the guard position and great interior play from Tobias Harris and Vucevic. People may want to fade the Magic today off of three straight impressive wins and the thoughts of the Twolves avenging the loss to the Magic. I won't here as I look for the Magic to continue playing well and get the ATS cover.

Utah State -3.5

Utah State is coming off an embarrassing Sunday defeat at the hands of Duke. Tonight they have the advantage against a Missouri State team that is still adjusting from the high level of play they had two seasons ago. Grab Utah State as 3.5 point favorites.

11/30 07:35 PM  NBA   (515) PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS VS (516) LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (11/30 08:17 AM) edit

Take: (516) LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS 

Reason: Play Clippers -7 Sure the Clippers are coming off an early Sunday game which places this as a back to back scenario Monday night. As I've stated before back to back games are no longer as valuable from an ATS perspective as they were 3-4 years ago. Teams have adjusted and have the utmost care from trainers and team medical staff. Portland is one of those teams that are taken poor shots and turning the basketball over far too frequently to back even against a team playing in a back to back scenario. Back the Clippers.

11/30 06:00 PM  CB   (527) CLEMSON VS (528) MINNESOTA (11/30 11:09 AM) edit

Take: (528) MINNESOTA 

Reason: Play Minnesota -1.5 We've added another CBB play and it will be with Minnesota at home. Minnesota is a team that vastly under achieved last year with seniors all around on the team. Pitino started to mix in his youth more and achieved better overall play. Clemson is a team that has athletes but can struggle at times to produce points. That's where the advantage lies here as the Gophers can flood the hoop with points.

Baltimore +3

            Even though Baltimore will be without Joe Flacco the remainder of the season I'm not going to overshadow that for the prime issues surrounding Cleveland. It's never good when you bounce back and forth with quarterbacks because of injuries and off the field issues. Lets not forget the Browns have been in this same position last year with Hoyer/Manziel and the year prior with Weeden/Hoyer. It has to effect a team, especially a defense that's been poor all year. Baltimore may have a lot of losses but they've battled in every game. We'll grab the Ravens Monday.

11/30 05:00 PM  CB   (525) FRESNO STATE VS (526) OREGON (11/29 09:21 PM) edit

Take: (526) OREGON 

Reason: Play Oregon -11 System coaches throughout the country are boding well. Dana Altman of Oregon has just that as he has found his niche in the Northwest with athletic guards and forwards that all can shoot and defend. Over the years he has lost players such as Joseph Young but just keeps filling in with premier talent. Fresno State can shoot the ball but what makes Oregon the play here is their efficiency on their home floor combined with solid defense. Grab the Ducks

11/30 04:35 PM  NBA   (501) BOSTON CELTICS VS (502) MIAMI HEAT (11/30 08:14 AM) edit

Take: (501) BOSTON CELTICS 

Reason: Play Boston +4.5 Boston is coming off a horrid loss but has a coach in Brad Stevens that has a don't look back at yesterday mentality. Off nights happen in the rigorous NBA and that was the case for the Celtics. The Heat have been a team for the first month of the NBA season that have played a bit above themselves. Look for the youth of the Celtics to hold court tonight against the aging Heat that are reliant on defense. Grab the Celtics

11/29 02:00 PM  CB   (725) CAL SANTA BARBARA VS (726) ARIZONA STATE (11/29 08:44 AM) edit

Take: (725) CAL SANTA BARBARA 

Reason: Play UCSB plus 8 Today we'll be grabbing UCSB plus 8 as they travel to Tempe, Arizona to play against ASU. Bobby Hurley has started the transformation in taking over the Devils with carry over players from the Herb Sendek era. An issue that has plagued the current Devils roster under Sendek and Hurley is inconsistency to play team basketball. That's where I believe the advantage lies with a UCSB team that lacks individual one on one players but makes up for it with true team basketball. Expect the Gauchos to be able to keep this under eight.

Seattle Seahawks -3.5

            Value has finally shifted enough for me to back the Seahawks Sunday. Pittsburgh may be coming off a bye but that's an overrated alleged handicapping advantage. At this point of the season you can find prime value by forecasting playoff teams. This is a great spot for Seattle as they face the Vikings the following week. After weeks of inconsistency offensively and defensively both sides of the football are starting to ascend on the field. That goes a long way for a team that has lost key games by slim margins. Home field and improved play has me on the Seahawks side Sunday.

Houston Texans -3

            The firing of defensive coordinator Rob Ryan is not going to turn around anything. Personnel is still horrid for the Saints defense and throughout Drew Brees career he has struggled against physical defensive lines. The Texans bring that too the table which will key Houston. Brian Hoyer has been an underrated starter against mediocre teams. A few seasons ago he had the Browns rolling before a season ending knee injury and did the same last year before facing stiffer competition. The Saints are a below average team that will not have answers for the Texans defensive front. Grab the Texans.

Notre Dame plus 4

Early post before line movement---Subscribers analysis will be added when other plays are finalized.

Florida +2.5

            If Florida had not laid an egg last week against Florida Atlantic this game likely would be Florida -1. I'll side with value here as even though Sean MacGuire is starter he is doing it in a different capacity. No longer has Coach Jimbo Fisher said it's something he'll evaluate. Now with the permanent job I believe MacGuire may handle the pressure a bit differently. Florida will get enough done on offense to cover the 2.5.

Idaho -3

            We will go to the Sun Belt yet again as Idaho takes on Texas State. Texas State has been a peculiar team because they have a solid quarterback in Jones as well as senior running back Robert Lowe. But they're just not the same potent combination that was witnessed a season ago. Scoring the football has been difficult and I believe that'll bode to the home favorite in Idaho. Grab Idaho -3.

Baylor -1

            Baylor may have lost high hopes of a BCS playoff just two weeks ago but that doesn't take away their talent advantage over TCU. TCU played a spirited game last week without Boykin but even with him back you have to wonder how they're going to keep up with the potent Baylor Bears. We'll back the Bears here today to make things interesting if Oklahoma loses Saturday.

Ohio State -1

            Afternoon add. I made a mistake on using Friday as an evaluation day by leaving several tournament winners off the board. I'll add a play that was on with Ohio State. The Buckeyes loss to UT Arlington caught people by surprise but losses like that happen all the time early in the season. This Buckeyes team has plenty of talent and is adjusting to life without DeAngelo Russell. Memphis run and gun style of play is a bit too wreckless. Grab the Buckeyes to play a sound brand of basketball and get the ATS win Friday.

11/26 12:30 PM  CB   (513) CONNECTICUT VS (514) SYRACUSE (11/26 08:36 AM) edit

Take: (514) SYRACUSE 

Reason: Syracuse +5 One thing I've learned over the years is JIm Boeheim enters early season tournaments he believes his Orange team can win. If this would have been a day one matchup I would have favored UConn, but it's not. Kevin Ollie is a mastermind for defensive preparation which has been cut down with a quick day two tournament matchup. UConn played in the late game last night while Syracuse played earlier in the day, which bodes to Syracuse's favor on offense. Syracuse also has great length that UConn's nucleus of transfers will have a tough time adapting to for 40 minutes. Grab Syracuse in the Battle 4 Atlantis.

11/25 06:30 PM  CB   (755) MICHIGAN VS (756) CONNECTICUT (11/24 11:17 PM) edit

Take: (756) CONNECTICUT 

Reason: Play UConn -3 The incredible job Kevin Ollie has done with UConn has gone unnoticed from last year's team to this year's team. That'll gradually change as UConn's 2015 season stretches on. Ollie similar to an NBA franchise added key pieces via transfer that halted last year's team. Graduate transfers in Sterling Gibbs and Shonn Miller now give the team balance offensively that they were missing a year ago. Rodney Purvis has also made significant strides to his game that became evident March of last season. While Michigan may have hold over names from their Final Four run of 2013 and Elite 8 run in 2014, they are unprepared to match the Huskies. Grab UConn

Portland +3

            Something is a bit off with the Bulls currently that we've been tracking on several of our covers this season. Yes they can score but their defense has suffered immensely with Doug McDermott, Aaron Brooks, and the obviously not healthy Joakim Noah. This has led to leads being blown time and time again. On the road against a potent Trailblazers guard heavy lineup I do not believe the Bulls should be favored tonight. Expect Lillard to have his way and for plenty of pick and roll opportunities. Grab the Blazers.

TCU +6.5

            Look for the young Horned Frogs to have a solid battle on their hands tonight against the Rhode Island Rams. Rhode Island to me has severe issues at the guard position having lost Biggie Minnis who transferred to Wright State and EC Matthews who is out for the season with a knee injury. Combine that with their 52% free throw shooting and you have to believe the young Horned Frogs can battle in this one.

Play UCLA -3

Early season tournaments are a great gauge on where a team is starting to settle at. UNLV is loaded with talent that should provide a strong challenge to UCLA. But having the talent edge does not always translate to a win. I'll side with the veteran lineup of UCLA that will be led by guard Bryce Alford and stem UNLV runs with key adjustments.

Buffalo +7.5

            The undefeated Patriots nearly lost a week ago and are having to adjust without two key players. Julian Edelman is out for several weeks and Dion Lewis out for the year. Tom Brady does not have the safety valve out of the backfield he has had in recent years with Woodhead, Shane Vereen, and Lewis this season. I believe that'll cause problems and allow Buffalo to apply more pressure than they did in week two. Remember, in week two the point spread shifted from -2 on the Patriots side to the Bills favored by a point before kickoff. I'm not falling for an 8.5 point swing with the Bills improving and Patriots hurting with injuries. Play the Bills

Green Bay +1

            I've commented a few times this season that the Packers are notorious for 2-3 game in-season lulls. It's happened time and time again for Aaron Rodgers and Mike Mccarthy. Now that the bandwagon has shifted against them I believe they'll snap out of it like they have in years past. Minnesota has piled up the wins but they're doing so with a meager point per game average offensively. Rodgers will get things back and order for the Packers Sunday

Indianapolis +5.5

            The focus for Indianapolis is how they're going to perform with Andrew Luck out of the lineup. It should be but my focus on this play will be the opposing starting quarterback in Matt Ryan. Ryan's play has been horrific over the last four to five games, and I don't see him snapping out of it anytime soon. Atlanta's defense just is not strong enough to support an offense struggling. The difference with Matt Hasselbeck in the lineup over Luck is the turnover battle. The Colts will win that battle and get the cover Sunday.

Play Miami +1

            Tony Romo is going to come back tomorrow and start the Cowboys playoffs surge. Not exactly. Although the Cowboys do welcome Romo back it's going to be tough on the veteran quarterback to upstart a team that has lost severe confidence on both sides of the football. The team Romo is stepping into the huddle with is not remotely the team it was in week two or last year when Romo came back after missing the Cardinals game. Miami has worked too hard on offense and defense under Dan Campbell to lose to an unconfident Cowboys team at home. This is not last season and a miracle to the Cowboys season is not going to happen.

11/22 10:00 AM  CB   (559) GEORGETOWN VS (560) DUKE (11/22 07:31 AM) edit

Take: (559) GEORGETOWN 

Reason: Play Georgetown +6 Yes, Duke has an incredible record at MSG but so does Georgetown. It appeared two nights ago that Duke survived in a win against VCU more than getting an 8 point win. VCU went ice cold and when the shots didn't fall they lost their composure defensively. If there is one area that a John Thompson team will hold their head at it's their defense. After already slipping up against Radford and Maryland this veteran team of Georgetown knows they have to play well today to avoid a 1-3 start. Expect Georgetown's defense to hold tough for 40 minutes and keep this within the number.

(371) Michigan State vs (372) Ohio State

            Can Michigan State put a thorn to the Buckeyes on Saturday? This of course could have been a classic matchup of undefeated teams if it were not for the Spartans meltdown against the Wolverines. I ask you, what would the point spread be if that play did not happen to give the Wolverines the win over the Spartans? Definitely not near two touchdowns. Though the Spartans have not looked the part of a highly ranked team neither have the Buckeyes. Expect the Spartans to battle in this game as if they could take that last play back against the Wolverines. Grab Michigan State plus the 14.

Play Michigan State plus 14

UConn plus 10

            Last week I  avoided posting Oregon as a moneyline play against Stanford. This week I'll recommend a 50/50 wager on UConn ML and with the points +10. There's a reason why the undefeated Cougars continue to get zero respect from the polls and BCS chances. They have a run and gun look that has succeeded in the American conference but they don't pass the eye test. The Huskies have made strides and this is the type of game that can get them to a bowl and carry momentum into next season. Grab the Huskies

Georgia State -2.5

            Last week I bypassed the Sun Belt but we'll head back into it this week as South Alabama travels to Georgia State. South Alabama has been a hot potato team that is off their first winning streak of the season. Still, their defense is a major concern of mine heading on the road against a Georgia State team that has underachieved this season. Expect Georgia State to capitalize at home and take advantage of a South Alabama team that is subpar.

Purdue

            From time to time value just sticks out. Iowa's undefeated season has rose their spread value sky high. But over their last three games their only cover was by a half point over Indiana. High lines against the Gophers and Maryland did not come close to inflated spreads. As this line continues to climb from 20 to now 23 I have to step in and root for 2-8 Purdue, who did play a competitive game against a similar style team in Michigan State.

Furman +18.5

This game has the same feel written to it that we've seen with Maryland/Rider and UT Arlington/Ohio State. The same point spread range against a pesky smaller school. UConn brought in two graduate transfers this season in Shonn Miller and former Seton Hall guard Sterling Gibbs. This will be a test against a pesky Furman team that got hot in the Southern conference a year ago. We'll grab Furman plus 18.