Toronto -5.5

            Toronto looks to creep closer to the Cavaliers as the top seed in the East with today's game against the Heat. I believe they will get closer as they've been a juggernaut offensively on their home floor. Don't forget Miami added Joe Johnson to the starting lineup recently, which has benefitted the Heat. Yet, there comes a time where the offense bogs down with new personnel and I believe we'll see that happen today. Toronto is a dangerous spurt team similar to Golden State. Look for two to three surges to be too much for the Heat.

Texas State +9

         Texas State quietly had one of the best come from behind wins last night over Georgia State. UT-Arlington is a team that has the eyes of bettors with headlining wins in-conference and in non-conference over Memphis and Ohio State. Yet, value lies with Texas State who has the skill position players to take on Arlington. Grab Texas State.

Charlotte -4

         The Hornets continue to be over looked but I'll jump in on them tonight against the Pistons. Detroit has been a bit back and forth since the All-Star break as they try to identify as a team. Charlotte's depth and home court edge should be enough to get us this posting victory ATS.

Cincinnati -2

         The Bearcats are one of the teams that has a team way of handling opponents. Their style has consistently caused problems for the Huskies and I see that happening again Friday. Grab Cincinnati to force UConn's guards into shots that they are uncomfortable with and for the Bearcats to win the battle in transition offensive points.

Georgia Tech +10

         The rally from Georgia Tech last night over Clemson was not a normal rally. You could see the veteran Yellow Jackets awaken a bit as they've been a team on the verge for quite some time. They match up well against the Cavaliers and should be able to ride last night's momentum into a solid performance tonight. Grab the Yellow Jackets.

East Carolina -3

         In today's first game of the American Conference tournament we'll grab East Carolina as slight favorites. Though South Florida has performed better I'm leery of the overall team defense and offensive abilities they have. I'll back the better back court of the Pirates and look for them to get their second victory over South Florida.

Kansas State +12.5

         Folks that have finally been waiting to grab value against Kansas have it here today. Kansas State played Kansas very tough a few weeks back on their home floor as 4.5 point underdogs. Now they're catching a full eight points more. Take the value here.

03/09 06:30 PM  CB   (563) ST. JOHNS VS (564) MARQUETTE (03/09 09:05 AM) edit

Take: (563) ST. JOHNS 

Reason: St John's +6.5 Today's lone play comes with St. Johns against Marquette. The quick rationale here is that Marquette should build upon two close regular season wins over St. John's to showcase their growth. But I believe St. John's is just a poor matchup for Marquette. The Johnnies fight hard and will give the Golden Eagles another battle. Grab the Johnnies plus 6.5.

Furman- +1.5

         After being way off on point spreads yesterday in the Southern Conference, oddsmakers are set to recoup Sunday. After opening as a pick the line has quickly shifted in East Tenn State's favor. Yet, I see Furman landing the victory here. Furman has solid team defense which has shown to cause trouble for East Tenn State's guard reliant lineup. Look for East Tennessee's offensive dry spells to give Furman the advantage here. Defense wins and we'll grab Furman.

Western Carolina +7

         Mid-season I tabbed Western Carolina as the best long shot conference tourney team in the country. They have veteran experience with all five starters being seniors, including the team that pushed Wofford in the Southern Final two years ago. Chattanooga has the flash mold that ex-Southern conference member Davidson exhibited. They have the record that makes you blink twice to see them as just a seven point favorite today. Yet, oddsmakers have this right. Grab Western Carolina +7 and also find a value play at near +600 to win the Soco tournament. Great hedge opportunity for tomorrow.

Memphis -10.5

         In the NBA we'll grab Memphis who takes on Phoenix as an eleven point favorite. Memphis is one of the few teams in the NBA that has shown consistency to bring an A effort against the bottom feeders of the NBA. They've dismantled teams such as Philadelphia and the Lakers. Their offense is growing which should allow them to grab an early lead and run away with Sunday's matchup.

East Carolina +5.5

         Memphis has been a fun team to watch but once again their record and results are not what you'd expect from Josh Pastner and company. There are a handful of teams you can anticipate being flat to conclude the season and I see that being the case with Memphis. Grab East Carolina to cover as a home dog Sunday.

Central Florida +17

         Earlier in the season UConn throttled Central Florida as 8.5 point favorites at Central Florida. I'm leery of seeing such a performance again as UConn has unraveled as the season has neared ending. Central Florida is by no means a balanced team but I expect them to be much more focused than what was exhibited a few weeks back. We'll take the points on a near double point spread from prior.

Dayton -2

            The Flyers have had their issues down the stretch but today I believe we're seeing value on the Flyers against a VCU team that has dominated the Atlantic 10. Over the years Coach Miller has had a knack for knowing how to play against VCU and I believe that'll carry over once again on their home floor. Grab the Flyers as slight home favorites.

Knicks +5.5

            The Knicks showed some heart for the first time in quite a bit last night in a close loss to the Celtics. At home today against a much improved Pistons team you'd figure a let down would be in-store. Instead I'll grab the Knicks as the Pistons are still in a transitional phase with newcomer Tobias Harris and the losses of veterans Ilyasova/Jennings and Stanley Johnson's injury. Play the Knicks plus five.

Duke +2.5

            The Blue Devils have lost games in fashion that we haven't seen in awhile. Last Sunday's loss to Pittsburgh assuredly shook the Blue Devils players and coaching staff. Yet, UNC does not have the physical defense and rebounding skills to put a blowout win on Duke. Duke showed earlier this season they can beat UNC and I think they do it again. Grab Duke.

East Tennessee State -3.5 buy the hook

            East Tennessee State has won both prior matchups against Mercer in improbable fashion. Both games Mercer dominated until the final waning moments. Yet I still see value on ETSU as they know how to win games and Mercer just has not shown the ability to play a full forty minutes of basketball. They were lucky to survive Citadel in the opening round which is troublesome. Do not be surprised to see ETSU jump out early this time around and stun ATS backers of Mercer expecting a game similar to the first two.

Virginia Tech +6

            This is a game I expect to be played at Miami's pace but I don't believe Miami will have the offensive success they've shown recently. Virginia Tech is a confident group that has won in comeback fashion over Florida State, beat Wake Forest on the road, and handled Pittsburgh. They'll look to go into the ACC tournament on a roll. Look for the Hokies to play a much tighter game than the fifteen point loss suffered earlier this season.

Play SMU -4.5

SMU looks to bust the bubble of UConn today and I believe they will. Earlier in conference play UConn defeated SMU on their home floor with a concerted defensive effort. That's tough to match on the road at the height of level they did at home. I'm also leery of the Huskies scoring. Sterling Gibbs and Rodney Purvis are not hitting shots on a consistent enough basis while freshman guard Adams has been erratic. SMU is devalued here as a team that will not be in the post season due to a ban. Yet their offense is too dynamic against a Huskies team that will without a doubt have their lulls. Grab SMU.

Providence -3

         Today we'll grab the Providence Friars as slight home favorites. Going 3-6 over their last nine games has caused the Friars to lose tremendous value ATS. Creighton is a tough team and won that has an early season two-point loss to the Friars on their mind. Yet, I believe at home the Friars will showcase enough offense for an ATS payoff tonight. Grab the Friars.

UCLA +3

         The Ducks look to continue their rise in the top ten as they travel to LA to take on the Bruins. This seems to be a good matchup for UCLA as the Ducks have only played nine road games all season in which they are 3-6 overall. Oregon recent rise may have them a bit over ranked. I'll grab the value on the home Bruins to take care of business.

03/01 06:00 PM  CB   (553) GEORGETOWN VS (554) MARQUETTE edit

Take: (554) MARQUETTE 

Reason: Marquette -3 At this juncture of the season we have two programs heading in the opposite direction. Marquette is building forward with a promising team for next year while Georgetown seems to be a program on the decline. While this matchup has delivered close finishes for the last five years I believe Marquette will distinguish their separation from the Hoyas tonight. Grab Marquette -3

Wake Forest -3.5

            Wake Forest and Virginia Tech are two teams that will drive you crazy watching the runs they go on and give up over the course of a game. Yet here I think Wake Forest on their home floor should prevail. In this angle I'll use the end of season theory for the Demon Deacons. The Hokies are coming off a tremendous come from behind win over Florida State and may come out flat against a team of the same caliber as them in Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons have rose their level of play as of late and should prevail past this number today.

Toronto -1.5

            Detroit was sharp last night for us but today I see the value shifted against them in favor of Toronto. Toronto is playing as fluid of basketball as any team in the NBA with Kyle Lowry and Demar Derozan at the top of their game. Detroit's flaws have been stopping guard penetration and scoring. Toronto has had great success against Detroit over recent years and I see that continuing today. Grab the Raptors

Saint Mary's -8

            Out in the West Coast Conference we'll grab Saint Mary's against San Francisco. San Francisco has difficulty scoring and relies too much on half court defense to keep them in games. I expect Saint Mary's to build a sustainable lead early that wears on the Dons defense. Grab Saint Mary's.

Detroit +1

            Milwaukee has been a juggernaut ATS and has the mold of one of the best young teams in the NBA. Yet Detroit's addition of Tobias Harris just is a different animal to contain as the Pistons look like a team on the cusp. The Bucks are a team reliant on attacking the basket for points and I believe the Pistons can contain half court settings and get some easy transition baskets. Grab Detroit.

Chicago +5

            Portland has caught the attention of the betting world with some eye catching blowout wins over Cleveland and Golden State and other head scratchers like a loss to the Rockets the other night. Chicago is a team that played Portland against their strengths a few months back in a win at Portland. Though Chicago has injuries they're more than capable of winning this game with offense and doing enough defensively. I'll take the five here with the Bulls.

Virginia -3.5

            Virginia is quietly starting to look like a flip-flop team. There's typically 1-2 teams that start off the season with a non-contention caliber look and are able to flip that to a caliber team by season's end. Virginia's defensive capabilities should be a problem against UNC. Though UNC's defense has improved I anticipate the Cavaliers scoring a bit more than typical. Grab the Cavaliers.

Florida State +2

            Notre Dame has had the look of a tired team as they extend their road trip. They lost to Georgia Tech by a point and survived a Wake Forest team without their senior in Devin Thomas. Florida State's youth and size should pose problems for the Irish. We'll grab the Seminoles to finally represent their home court in a big game.

Maryland +4.5

            The Terrapins slide may be a bit exaggerated, as the Big Ten is a difficult Power conference. They did pull away from Michigan last Sunday and I expect the Terrapins to showcase a Top ten performance today against a Purdue team that's shaky at best against strong guard lineups such as Maryland. 

Boston Celtics -5.5

            The Celtics face a Miami Heat team that's been a force post All-Star break. Yet all the Heat games were at home. On the road today against Boston I think we'll see a Celtics team showcase their upper echelon capabilities. Depth is a huge question mark for the Heat which leads me to believe a poor second half stretch should do the job for the Celtics.

DePaul -4.5

            DePaul's declining season presents value today against a St. John's team that was impossible to imagine getting a number less than five months ago. Yet they've showed toughness to battle in games including a near win against Seton Hall this past weekend. Yet, I'll grab DePaul here as they have enough with their starting lineup to take care of the Johnnies.

Play Arizona State +12.5

In the Pac-12 today we'll grab Arizona State plus 12.5. Arizona State is coming off blowout losses at the hands of Arizona/UCLA which has created some ATS value here. The Devils also are just 4-10 in conference play but are not your typical cellar basement team. They've battled in half of those losses and Utah is not an efficient team offensively. We'll grab the points here tonight.

Golden State -8.5

            We'll grab the Warriors as they continue on their east coast trip. They've had some close calls against the Heat and Hawks but tonight I believe they'll open things up early against the Magic. Orlando's added some new pieces and does have size but there still one of the more poorer teams defensively. A couple surges by the Warriors should be enough to get this cover.

Play Lakers +8

            The lone play in both college or NBA Wednesday will be the Lakers plus eight. While the Lakers play and record has been pathetic this season, they've quietly been an under the radar team ATS as of late. They're come from behind ATS cover the other night may leave bettors in position to pounce against them today against Memphis. Yet, I like the way their youth is playing and don't believe the veteran Grizzlies are worthy of such points at this juncture. Grab the Lakers plus eight.

Cleveland State +12.5

            In Horizon action we'll jump in on Cleveland State getting a whopping 12.5 points against Green Bay. Cleveland State did lose by 20 points earlier on their home floor to GB but had a lead in the mid 20's before the unraveling occurred. After a blowout loss to Milwaukee it would seem that Cleveland State doesn't have the fire power to matchup tonight. But I think they'll have better offensive success for a full forty minutes than last time around. Grab Cleveland State as a value play.

Indiana +2

            Indiana and Miami have been the best series to watch this season from an ATS and overall fan of the game. Each time it seems the other team is able to stage a comeback from a deficit. In the last game Miami erased an 18 point late third quarter deficit to force overtime and win. Tonight though I see a game that may actually play to the onset of first quarter action. Miami likely will be without D Wade for a third straight game and that's too much to overcome against a tall defensive Pacers team. Miami can get away with playing great defense in certain instances but Indiana has too much familiarity with their lineup. Grab Indiana.

Siena -1

            We'll grab a rare MAAC action play as Siena hosts Iona today. Siena is the MAAC team that draws the least fanfare. Iona has the minds from past years as an NIT and March Madness team for the past four seasons. Monmouth has the eyes of this year with their sideline theatrics, while Siena has been over looked. They're the better ball club and on their home floor I'm willing to ride the success they used to stage a 30-15 run to defeat Iona nine days ago. Grab Siena.

Wake Forest -8

            Even though Boston College has shown the ability to cover games there is no doubting how poor of a club they are. Their recent near win over North Carolina may cause an adverse reaction here in seeing value on them. Instead I'll side with Wake Forest who is a team that had the talent but underachieved as the mix of upperclassmen and youth did not blend together. Against Boston College I would not be surprised for us to see an out of nowhere exhibit from the Demon Deacons. We'll grab Wake Forest as they should cruise at home.

Boston Celtics -2

            About a month ago we had the Celtics at home against the Nuggets in what was a poor back door loss. Boston blew a 20 point fourth quarter lead to allow two chippies in the final minute for an eight point win on a 9.5 point spread. We'll go with them here on the road as I believe we'll see a better defensive effort than what we saw from the Celtics in that home game. Too much value here against a Denver club that overachieved leading up to the All Star break.

Play Central Florida +9

            Central Florida has been an agonizing team for myself and others to watch but there comes a point and time where a team has to buckle down. Central Florida displayed better defense against Memphis on the road but did not have the offense to match. On their home floor we have a prime opportunity on a continual number to get an ATS cover today against a Tulsa team that is prone to offensive droughts. Grab the plus nine here.

Utah State +4.5

            Out in the Mountain West we'll look for value on the Utah State Aggies on the road against Fresno State. Utah State has miffed oddsmakers with recent strong home wins out of nowhere against New Mexico 8 and Colorado State by 13. Instead of seeing a letdown on the road against Fresno State, I see this as an opportunity to continue to pounce on a Utah State team that has recreated ATS value towards the end of conference play. Grab the Aggies.

Kansas -4.5

            I have Kansas as my pre-season odds on favorite to win the title at 16-1 dating back to last May. Things have not changed in late February. While the Big 12 has been a strong conference I'm a firm believer in grabbing future value on teams late in the season in tough spots. This Kansas team has to show they can play in a March Madness type of environment on the road against their in-state rival K State. Assuredly they may face a deficit but I expect a comeback similar to their win against Kentucky and enough to get the cover.

East Tennessee State +3.5

            In the earlier meeting between East Tenn State and Mercer, East Tennessee State had a tremendous late rally to defeat Mercer. It was a true sloppy performance from East Tennessee State that is sure to draw attention on value for Mercer today. But I believe the tail end offense East Tenn State found with dribble penetration will carry over to today's game. Mercer is not the same juggernaut as last year and East Tenn State is a poised group of veterans. Grab East Tenn State as small dogs.

Richmond +9

            The Spiders are in a dire need to duplicate last year's six-game win streak to conclude the regular season. To do so they'll need to defeat the hottest team in the Atlantic 10 in the VCU Rams who are 11-2 in conference. Yet, these two teams have played close games with two of four matchups in the last two years going to overtime. I like the Spiders to play a solid game tonight on the road against the Rams. Grab the Spiders

Play Central Florida +12

            Wednesday, we'll head to the American conference were lowly Central Florida is catching a near nine-point swing spread advantage since they were 3.5 point dogs at home against Memphis a few weeks back. Surely, Central Florida has been one of the toughest teams to ever consider backing but I believe this is a spot suited for such cause. Memphis is not a defensive juggernaut team and were as proficient offensively as they've been all season in their rout win over Central Florida a few weeks back. Grab Central Florida as Wednesday's value play.

02/15 04:00 PM  CB   (717) WESTERN CAROLINA VS (718) EAST TENN STATE (02/15 02:19 AM) edit

Take: (717) WESTERN CAROLINA 

Reason: Play Western Carolina +7.5 We'll grab the Catamounts Monday as the lone ATS play. Earlier in January the Buccaneers wiped the Catamounts out early and held a 31-13 lead right off the bat. That's a steep deficit to come back from as the game never got closer than 55-45. Yet, as conference play has extended teams are starting to figure out the Buccaneers lineup led by Cincinnati transfer Ge'Lawn Guyn, Missouri transfer Deuce Bello, and guard TJ Cromer. I expect the Catamounts to play much better this time around as they're on a three game winning streak and have four seniors anxious to have a shot to position themselves for a Southern Conference tourney run. Grab the Catamounts

USC +9

            Both the Trojans and Wildcats play their second game in 48 hours after playing Friday night. The Trojans will look to avenge a poor loss in Tempe to Arizona State while the Wildcats rallied back in nice fashion against the Bruins. USC's prolific offense should do similar damage that they did in scoring 103 points against the Wildcats in January. In the end this is too many points against a Trojan team that deserves to remain ranked in the top 25.

Florida St +1

            This is the point of the season where you can find value on teams with maturing freshman. Malik Beasley and Dwayne Bacon of Florida State are both averaging over 16 points a game for the Seminoles. After losing in double digit fashion to the Hurricanes in January I believe the Seminoles can split the series on their home floor. Miami offensively has been playing a bit over their heads. Look for a down to Earth game from the Hurricanes.

North Carolina -10

            The Tar Heels look to respond at home after a dreadful three game road trip. North Carolina lost consecutive games on the trip and nearly a third against Boston College. This is an opportunity for the Tar Heels to reclassify themselves as a legit final four contender. I think they get it done against a Pittsburgh team that has lost the defensive touch of prior Jamie Dixon Big East teams. UNC's fire power will be too overwhelming for the Panthers.

Duke -2

            Saturday's board features optimal point spreads from morning, afternoon, and evening games. For all of Duke's losses this season should they be discounted this heavily on their home floor against Virginia? Sure, Virginia's made some strides but their offense is pedestrian at stretches in games. Duke's ability to score in multiple ways will offset the rebounding edge Virginia will get. Grab Duke on their home floor Saturday.

Play Syracuse -2.5

            Since Syracuse joined the ACC there has been one team in particular that their zone defense has thrived against---Florida State.  Florida State recruits the same mold of athletic smaller guards and physical big men. That's troublesome against an active zone. Perimeter guards around 6'1-6'3 struggle to find lanes and areas to shoot over the top of the zone. Inside Florida State's big men have been prone to turnovers on set zone traps. Syracuse is good for 5-7 wins a year on their zone defense alone and this is a good spot for it. Grab the Cuse.

Play Oakland -5.5

            Out in the Horizon conference we'll look to grab Oakland as they take on Milwaukee. I see this is as a value spot as Milwaukee suffered a loss Saturday at the hands of Northern Kentucky. While Milwaukee's offense has been proficient their defense is a bit behind to take on the task of handling a strong Oakland team. In what should be a good game we'll grab the value on Oakland here.

Rockets- +5.5

            You'd expect the Rockets to have the tired legs after playing last night against Golden State but I expect it to be the Trailblazers. Portland played a long overtime grind out affair against the Grizzlies. Both Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum shot below 50% and attempted over 20 shots. Their shots were crafty off the dribble and dribble drive attempts. Unlike the Rockets who shot in an open court contest all night long against the Warriors. Also the Rockets laid a dud just a few nights before against this Trailblazers team. We'll grab the value here in the Rockets.

Utah -9.5

            Wednesday we'll look for Utah to get back in the win column in a big way against the youth of the Washington Huskies. Utah defeated Washington on the road earlier this season in overtime. While many may see value here I think Utah is primed for a big win. They've suffered back to back defeats to the hands of Oregon State and Oregon. Yet they're back home here and have the upper edge in senior leadership to pick a part the Huskies a second time around. Grab the Utes.

Clippers- Pick

            Boston's coming off a loss last night against the Milwaukee Bucks in which they erased an 18 point fourth quarter deficit to tie the game at 109. Two sequences of highs and lows then occurred. A lay in by Greg Monroe with one second left made it 111-109 before Boston tied it again with two free throws. Then a mental error by Marcus Smart drew two free throws to give the Bucks the victory. That's as mentally taxing of a loss a team can sustain and this is coming before an elongated All Star break. The Clippers on the other hand got away with a win against the hapless 76ers. But in watching that game it was not the effort. Shots just were not falling as customarily for the Clippers. They have their legs back underneath them and I expect the Clippers to come out strong and hold on for a road win against the Celtics.

Pacers -3.5

            Though I was very impressed with the Bobcats performance against the Bulls, the Bulls were without their main players and the bench of Hinrich/Brooks/McDermott isn't as stellar as in years past. I do believe eventually the Bobcats will see some rust from Kidd-Gilchrist and tonight could be that night against the physical size/strength of the Pacers. George Hill and Paul George are matchup nightmares for the undersized Bobcats. Grab the Pacers at home to show their home court connection tonight.

Villanova -13.5

            We'll grab the Wildcats on the road Tuesday. Villanova's new ranking as a number one team is sure to turn heads. Have they looked and played like a number one team, no? But by being in the Big East they're able to avoid the torture of other power conferences. DePaul is who they are and are a weak defensive and struggling offensive team. Sure they had their moments in a win over George Washington and Providence but overall have regressed from last season. Look for the Wildcats to capitalize tonight.

Bucks +4.5

            The Bucks did come up short on their west coast trip but showed some grit in close games against the Kings, Jazz, and other opponents. This is a great opportunity for them to capitalize at home before the break against an over achieving Boston Celtics team. Boston's offense has been proficient but their defense as a whole has faltered as of late. At home with young talent we'll grab the Bucks Tuesday.

Bulls +6--Analysis to Follow

We're grabbing the Bulls at +6 Monday as the lone ATS play of the day. I see high value on a team that's lost three of their last four games, has two players out (Butler, Mirotic), and is wrapping up the last game of a seven game road trip. This is the fourth matchup between the two teams and although the Hornets are the healthier team---both know each others offensive/defensive sets well. In the other three matchups the Bulls were favored in all by 3.5, 5.5, and 6.5 points. We'll grab the line reversal here on the Bulls.

Play Clippers -9

            The notion here would be to grab the 76ers with rationale that the Clippers are due for a let down on their current road trip. Instead, I see this is as one of the best bargains of value ATS this NBA season. The 76ers have lured bettors with covers and close calls recently including a come from behind finish against the Warriors. Yet, the Clippers depth is perfect for this road spot. Jamal Crawford is excelling at the moment along with JJ Redick, CP3, and DeAndre Jordan. The bench is also contributing high value with Paul Pierce, Lance Stephenson, and Wesley Johnson. Grab the Clippers who will remain focused with eyes on rest during All Star break.

OKC +8

            When the Warriors and Thunder meet in the western conference finals/quarterfinals you will not catch an eight point spread in the playoffs. Yet, it's here in the regular season and we'll jump all over it. Yes, Golden State has been dominant but the Thunder can obviously do the same amount of scoring when they want. Defensively, the Thunder play under their capabilities on a nightly basis but in this level of a game I expect to see a better effort. Grab the Thunder.

North Carolina -2.5

            This is a trap ridden game based on the spread and recent result of the Tar Heels. Notre Dame has showcased this season in big matchups that they just aren't ready with the junior filled team they have. Maybe next year will be their time to shine. UNC has a senior based team and a  poor taste in their mouth from blowing a large lead in the ACC tournament last year. While the Tar Heels may have lost to the Cardinal, I was impressed with the increase on the defensive end of the floor from them.

Northern Kentucky +5.5

            Out in Horizon conference play we'll grab value on Northern Kentucky against Milwaukee. Northern Kentucky we won against Milwaukee and they also did not cover at home against Oakland. The third time will be the charm against a Milwaukee team losing its luster a bit. Grab Northern Kentucky.

Auburn +10

            Now is finally a time that the Tigers have ATS value. After being slaughtered throughout conference play, the Tigers get an opponent in the Bulldogs who have been up and down. Look for the Tigers upper classmen in Bowers, Harris, etc to keep them in this one.

Arizona -4

            Arizona survived a scare against Washington State and now get to finish the Washington road trip against the Huskies. I see growth occurring for the Wildcats and while they may not be their typical juggernaut they'll be ready in March. Grab the Wildcats to show tenacity tonight against the Huskies.

BYU -17

            We were on this game earlier this season with Pacific +9.5-10 at home. In a game that was tight throughout ballooned in quick fashion midway through the second half. Instead of seeing value on a 7 point adjustment from the first outing, I see value on the Cougars who can score and run at will against Pacific. Grab the Cougars.

Eastern Michigan +6.5

            Buffalo has showed some of the holdover talent from Bobby Hurley has paid dividends, yet they've under achieved when they face solid defenses. Eastern Michigan has that and should be able to score enough in transition to stay within this spread.

Georgia State -1

            Down in the Sun Belt conference the game of the day belongs to Georgia State versus UT Arlington. Of course UT Arlington has caught the flare of sports bettors with early season wins over Ohio State and company. Yet, Georgia State has the lulling defense/offense that I like in a home court setting in a smaller conference. Grab the Panthers as slight favorites.

Clippers -4.5

            The lone play for Friday will come with the Clippers. First the Clippers are gaining value here based on an early Eastern start time in Orlando. Secondly, they just suffered a loss to the Timberwolves who had lost eleven straight prior. But I will not over value that loss as the Timberwolves had been competitive against OKC, Cleveland, Utah, and against a few other opponents. Orlando has rose their play recently with a win against Boston and a nice effort as steep dogs against OKC. Yet, they're defensive issues will come to the forefront tonight. The Clippers should be able to churn an octane performance and score in the 115-125 range. Grab the Clippers

02/04 04:00 PM  CB   (725) WISC GREEN BAY VS (726) NORTHERN KENTUCKY (02/04 10:39 AM) edit

Take: (725) WISC GREEN BAY 

Reason: Wisconsin Green Bay -3 Northern Kentucky lost a few days ago at home to Oakland by a result of 11 points. They actually played closer than the final score indicated with a few solid runs to begin the second half. Yet this is a spot where you'll have to devalue that performance and see that Northern Kentucky is struggling to contain offenses in the Horizon league. I don't see that changing tonight against a Green Bay team that has the ability to score in bunches. Grab Wisc Green Bay.

Penn State +16.5

            Iowa's surging offense has put them in prime position to make a good run in the Big 10. Yet let down's happen in-conference and I believe this spread is a tad bit inflated off of Iowa's latest string of dominant wins. Penn State has snuck in on the number against a handful of teams as big dogs already. We'll grab them here again to do so.

Notre Dame +5.5

            The Irish have offensive balance to negate the impact of the Hurricanes eight game home win streak. At 5-3 in-conference I believe the Hurricanes are set for a poor finish in the ACC. Grab the Irish to play well on the road here and have success on the offensive end of the floor.

Virginia -23

            Virginia is showing strides on both ends of the floor after a 16 point road win against Louisville. Expect carry over momentum from that game to ride at home against a Boston College team that may not get a win in the ACC. Their one strength is Rutgers transfer Eli Carter who attempted nine of his fifteen attempts from the three point line against North Carolina. Expect the Cavaliers to limit him and hold another opponent under fifty points.

Play UNLV +2.5

            This is a value play on the Rebels. The loss of Ben Carter has caused an over reaction along with a loss to a solid San Diego State team. New Mexico isn't exactly the juggernaut they use to be either. Talent advantage hails to the Rebels and I look for Pat McGaw to showcase himself as a true leader tonight. Grab the Rebels on the road.

Play Virginia Tech +9.5

            The Hokies are coming off a blowout loss at Pittsburgh. Instead of over reacting to that loss we'll look for value on a similar spread at Syracuse. Syracuse has their offense working a bit better but their defense is still questionable in their trademark zone. The Hokies small lineup should be able to attack creases and penetrate the zone. I also expect the Cuse offense that has been above average to tone down a bit today.

Add-

LSU -5

            This was a game I wanted to add earlier but it moved to six. Now that it's moved down I'll grab the value on the Tigers. LSU has shown enough strides on both ends of the floor to handle a road trip to Auburn. I do not expect a let down after strong performances against Georgia and a near upset of Oklahoma.

Milwaukee Bucks +4

            Jason Kidd and the Bucks head to Sacramento Monday night to start a new road trip. This is a matchup of young lineups that will merit my attention ATS. I've been impressed with Milwaukee's in-game coaching from Jason Kidd. Sacramento just does not put teams away especially at home. The Bucks are getting better as each game goes on and I believe Kidd will make the proper in-game adjustments to have the Bucks in this. Grab Milwaukee

Utah Jazz -4.5

            While some may want to latch onto the Bulls for value Monday I will not. Utah has caught my eye as they continue to get better overall. They're in the hunt currently for the last seed in the West. Now healthy with Derrick Favors back, they also have young pieces that have seen the green light of the NBA. Trey Burke, Rodney Hood, and Rudy Gobert have all raised their level of play in the month of January to go along with budding star Gordon Hayward. The Jazz home court altitude hindering the Bulls will be an angle by handicappers but I just see it as a good matchup for the Jazz. Grab Utah.

Indiana Pacers +4.5

            Cleveland's surge before the All-Star break has paved the way for LeBron and company to hit their stroll. Yet I can't ignore the fact that the Cavaliers where facing a deficit deep into the second quarter against the Suns and blown out by the Warriors. Indiana has value Monday at home as they've been a strong home team all season. Grab the Pacers

Louisville -1

            Louisville is coming off an embarrassing home loss in double-digit fashion to the Virginia Cavaliers. Virginia showcased heart and toughness defensively not seen from them this year. NCAA basketball you need to have short term memory and I believe the Cardinal can bounce back here against the Tar Heels who are who they are. They're an excellent offensive team but very limited defensively. This should be the spot where Trey Lewis and Damion Lee can finally get both going in the same game. Grab the Cardinal at home.

Play Virginia Tech +10

            Pittsburgh right now in my opinion has some of the highest glaring issues in the ACC. They have 2-guards and small forwards almost up and down their roster.  As conference play continues teams have been better at game planning this weakness. Teams have limited their half court offense and worn the Panthers down offensively. The Hokies are coming off a game against Louisville in which three players shot double-digit free throws. Buzz Williams has always had a knack for utilizing the free throw line to his advantage since his days at Marquette. They'll win that battle by 7-10 free throws, which will be the difference in our cover.

Play Central Florida +8

            Central Florida's defense has not been pretty yet they are getting a bit too under valued here against the Huskies on their home floor. UConn is not the same without Amidah Brimah inside and frankly does not wow opponents with their offensive efficiency. Guards Rodney Purvis and Sterling Gibbs are known to take bad shots while Shonn Miller is mainly a putback type of scorer. Grab Central Florida who should be getting around 4.5 here.

Play Wake Forest +10

            Notre Dame may be a solid home court team but they're obviously struggling to get their lineup in solid order. They're coming off a blowout loss to Syracuse and may have been over valued from a Duke win. Wake Forest is coming off a game in which they led by nine points against Virginia before letting the lead whittle away. They'll be able to score effectively against the Irish. This is a team that's lost close battles to Louisville, Indiana, North Carolina, and Duke (final score not indicative of the game). They'll battle until the clock hits zeroes which I'll value here in case the Irish have a low to mid-teen lead for a possible under five minute cover.

Kentucky +5

            Kansas bit of a free fall seems like it should end today at home against Kentucky, correct? Not necessarily. Sometimes scheduling can create havoc for a team and that's the case right now for Kansas. When Kentucky was sliding they lost the label of top team and have played looser. That has allowed them to gain traction and should bode well on the road against Kansas. Kentucky's athletes should pose problems for a finesse Kansas team. Too many points here in a game that should come down to the wire.

Play UNC -26

            We're going to add a play on UNC against BC. All season North Carolina has been deemed a bit under valued in my opinion thanks to lackluster defense. Offensively they've been as efficient as a team that I can remember since the early 2000 Duke/UConn teams. BC struggles on both ends of the floor and this is a perfect tune up spot for UNC to roll. Grab UNC.

Virginia +6

            As poor as Wake Forest made Virginia look a few nights ago you have to believe a team came rally around the type of come back the Cavaliers mustered. Louisville is showing better efficiency but has yet to showcase the caliber level of play that would warrant them as consistent big favorites. We've been able to capture several ATS covers against Louisville and will aim for it here again on value on the Cavaliers.

Florida State -3.5

            Florida State defeated Clemson earlier in conference play and I believe they'll do so again today at home. Clemson is coming off an easy win against Pittsburgh in which they remained hot from the perimeter. Traveling on the road against a team that has already defeated them can create the type of doubt that causes pressing. Florida State may be adjusting to new recruits but can still light up the scoreboard. Grab FSU to sweep the Tigers.

Georgia Tech +5.5

            Syracuse hopes to continue to rise in Joey Lunardi's bracketology as they inch closer to getting back in the March picture. They've had some strong showcase performances and wins recently but are facing a Yellow Jackets team that hasn't back down to anyone this season. They're coming off one of the more impressive ACC conference wins yet in defeating NC State handily on the road. They've also defeated Virginia and fought tooth and nail against North Carolina/Louisville. Syracuse has shown much improvement but still rely too heavily on a perimeter offense and two freshman in Tyler Lydon/Malachi Richardson. We'll grab the value on the Yellow Jackets.

Timberwolves +8.5

            This game keeps rising on the number as the Jazz look to give payback to the Timberwolves from a 94-80 loss December 30th. I'll gladly take the points here as people ignore standout details. Yes, Derrick Favors returned Monday but rust is evident after nearly a month off with a back injury. The rising play of Rodney Hood and Gordon Hayward has taking the eyes off a Jazz offense that still struggles at times. Minnesota's youth is relentless and will apply pressure to this Jazz offense. Grab the Twolves plus the points.

Rockets +7.5

            The Rockets may have been defeated by the Spurs in blowout fashion but they've steadily been playing better basketball as of late. OKC on the other hand has made some lineup adjustments with Dion Waiters in the starting lineup and is coming off a road trip of wins against the Knicks/Timberwolves. Yet I am not impressed with how they've looked defensively and believe the value lies here with the Rockets.

Washington +6.5

The Huskies will look to try and grab another win over the Bruins. In their prior matchup the Huskies stormed back in the first half from a large deficit and carried the momentum into the second half. Though this game is at UCLA I believe their skillset poses a challenge for the Bruins. Grab the generous 6.5 here with the Huskies.

Furman -6.5

            We won the other night with Furman not playing their best but still covering on the road against VMI. I expect a sharper performance from Furman against Western Carolina. Western Carolina has struggled against high scoring teams this season and I expect Furman to be able to find their shots early and often back at home Thursday. Grab Furman.

Play East Tenn State +2

Our second southern conference play Thursday comes in East Tenn State versus Wofford. Wofford comes in as a two point favorite as oddsmakers give them one last chance to show value they deserved from the past two seasons. The problem is East Tenn State is a veteran team that has well advanced scouting on Wofford's downgraded lineup. The Terriers have hold over third and fourth options but no go to scorers remaining from the past two years. Look for East Tenn State to take advantage as will we in what should be the last over valued line on Wofford this season.

Minnesota +7

            OKC is coming off an incredible come from behind win against the Knicks. Rather than see it as an igniting point I'll take the value on the young Timberwolves who have performed better in recent games against the Mavericks and Cavaliers. OKC is still lackluster defensively which does not bode well on the road in back to back games.

Atlanta Hawks -5

            The Clippers bounced back nicely from a blowout defeat to the Raptors to win with defense against the Pacers. Yet there certainly a team wearing down a bit before All Star break. Doc Rivers did not want to have to utilize Paul Pierce as much as he had and the wear/tear is showing. The Clippers needed a come from behind effort against a tired Miami Heat team, were blown out by the Cavs, and blown out by the Raptors. The Hawks should be able to handle the Clippers tonight.

Virginia Tech +10

            Virginia Tech finds themselves yet again devalued ATS even with wins against Georgia Tech, Virginia, and a tough hard fought game against North Carolina. Buzz Williams has this team playing with confidence and familiarity of Coach Pitino's tendencies from his Big East days at Marquette. Both Damion Lee and Trey Lewis continue to struggle in-conference from the field. We'll grab the value on the Hokies.

Boston -9.5

            After slumping for a stretch it appears the Celtics have regained their stride. They're playing with balanced energy and seem to have been ignited by their win against the Bulls as they torched the Wizards on their home floor the other night. Denver has played a bit over their heads and I see the Celtics handling them with ease tonight.

Raptors -7.5

            Initially you'd expect a professional franchise team to respond after a 25 point home loss last night to the Celtics. Yet, the Wizards have lost three of four at home and now head on the road to face a surging Raptors team. Quietly the Raptors feature eight players that average 20 minutes or more---7 scored in double digits in their latest win vs the Clippers. These teams are playing at a different level than three weeks ago when the Raptors utilized a strong third quarter to win 97-88 at Washington. While there may be perceived road value here I expect a Raptors blowout.

Virginia -6.5

            The Cavaliers have not looked like a defensive team all season but tonight that should change against a Wake Forest team that is turnover prone. Turnovers feed the passion of defense for the Cavaliers and I would expect the defense to grow stronger as the game wanes. Offensively the Cavaliers have more than enough efficiency with Gill/Toby down low and Perrantes/Brogdon from mid-range and the perimeter. Grab the Cavaliers on the road.