10* Under Browns/Chiefs (3:05 ET): The expectation here is for this to be a very high-scoring game. Just look at the total. It’s not only the highest of the weekend, but has a good shot to close as the highest total for ANY Divisional Round matchup in history! Even for the Chiefs, the current number would be the highest for any game this season. This is all due to Cleveland’s shocking performance last week where they upset the Steelers 48-37 in Pittsburgh. But as I’ll get into, there were plenty of “extenuating circumstances” that led to that high score. I believe this number is simply too high and I’m going Under. 

Last Sunday was quite a special night in Cleveland. The Browns won their first playoff game in more than a quarter century and did so in improbable fashion. They were up 28-0 at the end of the first quarter! How could that happen? Well, simply put, the Steelers imploded. On the very first play from scrimmage they snapped the ball into the end zone, allowing the Browns to recover and score a TD. After that, Ben Roethlisberger threw two 1Q interceptions, setting the Browns up in “plus-territory.” One drive began on the Steelers’ 15-yard line. Obviously, Patrick Mahomes is not going to play as poorly as Big Ben did. Also, the Chiefs’ defense is pretty good! They allow just 22.3 PPG at home. 

While no one expects the Browns’ offense to duplicate LW’s performance, there is (rightly) some concern about the defense’s ability to stop Mahomes. Fortunately, they will be getting back two defensive backs - Denzel Ward and Kevin Johnson - from the COVID list. The fact the Browns gave up so many yards passing last week is a bit misleading as Pittsburgh had no choice but to pass on almost every down. The Chiefs have not scored more than 33 points in any of their previous six games and the last time Mahomes was on the field, they scored just 17 against a not good Falcons defense. The Under isn’t just 15-7 the Browns L22 after scoring 30+ their previous game, it’s also 21-10 if they gave up 30+ in their previous game. 10* Under Browns/Chiefs

10* Under Bears/Saints (4:40 ET): For four consecutive weeks, Chicago put up 30+ points (something no Bears team had done since the 1960’s) with Mitch Trubisky at the helm. But then came last week’s disappointing effort vs. the Packers where they were held to just 16. Thanks to Arizona also losing, the Bears were able to “back in” to the playoffs as the 7-seed in the NFC, but I don’t think I’m exaggerating here when I call this the weakest team in the field (yes, even weaker than Washington). They face a VERY tall order in the Wild Card Round, having to travel to the Mercedes Benz Superdome to face the Saints. 

When looking at that run of 30+ point games, it’s very important to consider just WHO the Bears faced: Detroit, Houston, Minnesota and Jacksonville. None of those are playoff teams and the defenses were among the worst in the league. Facing a good defense for the 1st time in a month, the Bears got held to not just 16 points, but only 4.8 yards per play. The Saints defense that Trubisky and company will face this week is one of the league’s best as it ranks top five in both scoring and yards allowed. Chicago is 1-6 SU vs. winning teams this season, averaging just 16 PPG. So last week, sadly, was nothing new.

The Saints offense is expected to get both RB Alvin Kamara and WR Michael Thomas back, which sounds exciting. But the Bears’ run defense is tops in the league in terms of success rate and Kamara may not be operating at full strength after missing a week due to quarantine. While New Orleans is still thought of as this “offensive machine,” they operate at a very slow pace (29th in time between plays) and I think they know it’s not going to take many points to win here. Their L3 playoff games have all stayed Under. 10* Under Bears/Saints

8* Over Bills/Patriots (8:15 ET): There are two six-game streaks on the line coming into this game. Buffalo has covered six in a row. New England has gone Under in six in a row. Here I am targeting the latter streak as the Patriots should be better offensively now that they’ve returned home (where they haven’t played in a month). The last two games saw them run into two of the better defenses in the league (Rams, Dolphins), both on the road, and they had little to no success. Buffalo is giving up 25.4 PPG on the road this season.

You’ll have to check out my 10* Game of the Week (play on the side) for a bunch of historical info on this spread. Bottom line: it’s not often that Buffalo is favored against New England, though this is the 2nd time this year it has happened. It’s even more rare to find them favored in Foxboro as they go for the 1st season sweep of the Patriots this century. New England hasn’t been a home dog of this magnitude since Tom Brady was a rookie. They haven’t been a division dog of 7 or more since that same 2001 season. They haven’t gotten this many points from any Buffalo team since Jim Kelly was playing QB in 1993.

I that first meeting this season, Cam Newton fumbled inside the red zone as the Patriots were looking to tie/go ahead. They lost 24-21 as a 4-point dog. The total for that game was only 41, so it did go Over. You may find it curious that the total is higher for the rematch as NE has gone Under in six straight. But this time around the Patriots defense won’t have former Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore, who is out for the year with a knee injury. The Buffalo offense also seems to be better now than it was back on Nov 1, the date of the first meeting. They’ve scored at least 26 points in every game since. 8* Over Bills/Patriots

8* Under Titans/Packers (8:20 ET): Two of the NFL’s more prolific offensive teams meet Sunday night at Lambeau Field where snow and wind are expected to be factors. Thus, I’m leaning towards this being a lower scoring game than what the oddsmakers are anticipating. Yes, we all know what an “Over machine” Tennessee has been since Ryan Tannehill became the starting QB (19-4-1 O/U record!). But Green Bay has gone Under each of the last three weeks and this is a big number for such a high profile game. 

Given the weather conditions, expect to see a lot of Derrick Henry when the Titans have the ball. Of course, that figured to be the case anyway. But with the weather potentially being such a factor, the Titans prolific passing attack may be kept in check. The Packers’ defense ability to stop the run has been an issue for a while now, but they’ve gotten better as the season has worn on. I’m sure that slowing down Henry has been the main focus of practice all week long. The L3 games have seen GB allow an average of just 18.7 points and 311.7 yards. Over the L7 games, only one opponent (Colts) has scored more than 25 vs. the Pack. 

Tennessee has scored 30+ points in five straight games as they look to go to the playoffs for a second straight season. However, the L2 weeks have seen them benefit from facing weak opponents (Detroit, Jacksonville). Expect more resistance from a Packers team that can clinch home field advantage in the NFC with a win tonight. The Titans’ Over percentage is second highest in the league (behind only Las Vegas - ugh), but I’m willing to buck that trend here given the gravity of the game and likely weather conditions. 8* Under Titans/Packers

10* Over Rams/Seahawks (4:25 ET): These teams met back in Week 10 with the Rams emerging victorious by a score of 23-16. They were 3.5-point favorites at home. The stakes are much higher for this rematch as Seattle, not the Rams, can wrap up the NFC West with a win. LA is off a very embarrassing loss last week as they became the first team to fall to the Jets in 2020, doing so 23-20 as a 17-point home favorite. Obviously, they should come eager to atone for such an unthinkable result. But beating Russell Wilson in Seattle isn’t easy as they scored 40 points the last time they played here - against the Jets! 

That this game takes place up in the Pacific Northwest should have a profound effect on your analysis of the total. The Rams are 7-0 Under at home this season and they are the only team in the league yet to have a single home game go Over.  But they are 4-3 Over on the road as the offense averages 28.1 PPG, up a full TD from what they average at home. Similarly, the defensive numbers go up on the road. The Rams allow just 14.4 PPG at home, but 24.0 on the road, a big-time increase. So while Rams’ home games average just 35.5 PPG, their road games are at 52.1. Again that’s a severe difference.

Seattle has had two of its three lowest-scoring games in the past three weeks. Ironically, both games were against NFC East teams. But in between they did have the 40-point game vs. the Jets here at home. They are averaging 31.0 PPG at home for the year. Going into the 1st meeting with the Rams, the Seahawks had gone Over in six of their first eight games. Now they’ve gone Under in six straight. I say it's time for that streak to end. The O/U line for the first meeting closed at 53.5, a full TD higher than what it is here! Over the L3 weeks, the Seahawks defense has gotten to face three bottom five offenses. Not here. 10* Over Rams/Seahawks

9* Under Dolphins/Raiders (8:15 ET): These teams are seemingly headed in opposite directions. I played Miami last week as they beat the Patriots 22-12, their 8th SU win in the L10 games (they’ve also gone 9-1 ATS in that stretch). Las Vegas has lost four of five, the only win coming against the then-winless Jets on a last second “Hail Mary.” I went against the Raiders last Thursday when they fell in overtime to the Chargers. Normally, I might stick with the Dolphins’ bandwagon, but this will be LV’s third straight game at home and I don’t like how the line “jumped the fence” early in the week. It’s the total that’s catching my eye now.

What’s interesting about playing this total is that each of the Raiders’ last seven games have seen at least 49 total points scored and five of those seven have seen at least 57 total points scored. But Miami has seen 33 or LESS total points scored in four of its last five games (exception was vs. KC). So something will have to give. Considering Marcus Mariota could start for Las Vegas, I think this will be more of a “Miami-type game.” Even if Derek Carr is able to play, you’d have to be concerned about his injured groin facing one of the best defenses in the league.

Over their last 10 games, Miami has allowed more than 21 points to only two opponents - the Chiefs and Cardinals. This Dolphins’ defense has hit the “trifecta,” ranking 1st in the league in scoring (18.4 PPG allowed), takeaways (26) & 3rd down percentage (32.5%). Not only do the Raiders have an injured starting QB, but RB Josh Jacobs has averaged just 3.0 YPC since Week 10. But giving the home team a sliver of hope is the fact Miami has scored 22 points or less in four of its last five games. Tua Tagovailoa is still a rookie QB playing on the road. So look for this game to snap a 6-0 Over run in head to head meetings between these teams. 9* Under Dolphins/Raiders

10* Over Steelers/Bengals (8:15 ET): Pittsburgh is a heavy favorite Monday night despite B2B losses, both of which came in primetime games. But let’s not be too quick to forget this team was 11-0 SU before having to endure three professional football games in a 12-day span. That, more than anything else, is what “caught up to them” and caused them to drop two in a row. Tonight has all the makings of a “get well” game for the Black & Gold, especially on the offensive side of the ball as the Bengals defense they face tonight just allowed a 122.6 passer rating to backup QB Andy Dalton. Dallas, a bad team, scored 30 in that game. 

Normally, I’d be “all over” a double digit dog in primetime, but the Bengals seem a bit “untouchable” right now, especially with Ryan Finley now set to start at QB. Finley is the third different starting QB for the Bengals in the last five games. Joe Burrow’s injury effectively ended this team’s season as it’s been all downhill ever since. Cincinnati has lost five in a row, a streak that started against the Steelers. Burrow was hurt the following week and the Bengals have managed only three offensive touchdowns since. The defense had been okay, but then came the aforementioned effort last week vs. Dallas, a sign this game has the potential to get pretty ugly. 

This is one of the lowest totals you’ll see the entire NFL season. When the teams met five weeks ago, the O/U line was 45 and the game went Over as Pittsburgh won 36-10. A similar final score could be on tap tonight. The Bengals’ offense actually did move the ball a bit last week, only to fumble it away on each of the opening three possessions. But tonight is all about the Steelers’ offense getting back on track. As we saw in the 1st meeting, they could possibly come close to sending this one Over themselves. Cincy will give enough help to get it past the “finish line” as both teams end 4-game Under streaks. The Over is 5-0 in the Bengals’ L5 home games vs. a team w/ a winning road record. 10* Over Steelers/Bengals

8* Over Patriots/Dolphins (1:00 ET): Is there something I’m missing here? Because I feel the Dolphins are being severely undervalued in this spot, a key AFC East clash. Not that I mind. I’ve cashed Miami multiple times in 2020, the most notable win was obviously my 10* Game of the Year when they upset the Rams 28-17 here at home. Since their bye week last season, Brian Flores’ team has gone a league-best 19-6 ATS. The ‘Fins are 10-3 ATS this season, have covered eight of their last nine and were a winner for me last week +7.5 against the best team in the league, Kansas City. I feel they should be about a touchdown favorite here. 

This clearly isn’t the same New England team we’ve grown accustomed to seeing under Bill Belichick. The Patriots are just 6-7 SU and while technically not out of the playoff race, their reign of dominance over the AFC East (won division 17 of the last 19 years, including 11 straight) figures to end, possibly as early as Sunday. Even if the Pats were to win their final three games, it’s highly doubtful they’ll make the playoffs. It’s been awhile, so let me remind you that the last time we saw this team, they were thoroughly dominated in a 24-3 loss to the Rams.

A lot has changed since these teams met in Week 1. New England won that first game 21-11, but Tua Tagovailoa is now the Miami QB. Belichick has won 11 straight against rookie QBs, but don’t be surprised when the Dolphins have far more success on the offensive side of the ball here than they did in that first meeting. They put up 27 points last week vs. Kansas City. Of course, they also gave up 33 (despite forcing four turnovers). The Patriots figure to run the ball a lot here as they were successful doing so (217 yards) back in Week 1. This is a really low O/U and I see the Pats’ 5-game Under run coming to an end. 8* Over Patriots/Dolphins

10* Over Saints/Eagles (4:25 ET): Well, isn’t this the contrarian play? Even getting more than a touchdown at home, it feels as if the Eagles are getting too MUCH respect this week as they send out Jalen Hurts to make his 1st career NFL start against what might be the league’s best defense. The QB change, precipitated by the horrendous play of Carson Wentz, was needed. It’s a tough spot for Hurts, no doubt. But here’s the thing. What if he’s good? Certainly he can be no worse than Wentz was over the last month or so.

New Orleans doesn’t have many problems these days. They are 10-2 SU and in the driver's seat to earn homefield advantage in the NFC Playoffs. Even without Drew Brees, the Saints continue to hum along as they’ve won nine in a row, the last three coming with Taysom Hill as the starting QB. Brees is reportedly close to returning, but there’s no rush considering the Saints are a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS WITHOUT him in the lineup the L2 seasons. The offense should score plenty here as they’ve run for 436 yards the L2 weeks. I certainly expect the Saints to score in the neighborhood of their season average of 28.9 PPG. 

So this is the lowest total on the board Sunday, which can’t be all that surprising with a rookie QB going against a defense that has allowed just two touchdowns and 44 total points in the L5 games. Plus these teams have combined to go Under in 11 straight games. But I believe the Saints can do virtually all the “heavy lifting” here and won’t be surprised if the Eagles score more than expected. Hurts is a bit of an “X-factor.” If New Orleans allows just 20 points here - and that is their season average - we should be in really good shape. I’ve waited all week to try and hit this number at its nadir, so here we go. 10* Over Saints/Eagles

10* Over Patriots/Rams (8:20 ET): This particular play definitely flies in the face of results, both recent and long-term. The Under is 5-0 in Rams’ home games this season with their defense allowing an average of just 15.0 PPG. The Under is also 4-0 in the Patriots last four games overall. The Under is 6-2 in both teams’ last eight games. Now that we’ve got all that out of the way, let’s concentrate on the game at hand. The Rams scored 38 last week while the Patriots scored 45. Those were season-highs for both teams.

Now the Patriots definitely got a “boost” from their special teams & defense, both of which scored a TD last week vs. the Chargers. They also got a long punt return that set up a field goal. Obviously, I do not expect New England to score 45 points again this week. The key is I don’t expect their defense to play as well. The Over is 4-1 the Patriots L5 games after holding the previous opponent to 15 points or less. The Rams offense averages nearly 400 YPG and 6.0 YPP. QB Jared Goff threw for 351 on yards on Sunday, completing 37 of 47 passes. Going into last week, the Patriots defense was 31st in the league (2nd worst), allowing 7.6 yards per pass attempt. I expect another big offensive game from the Rams. 

New England flat out shocked me in their dismantling of the Chargers. The offense may not have been THAT impressive, but it did go for 165 yards on the ground. The Rams’ defense has been pretty good at stopping the run lately, but hasn’t really faced an offense that runs the ball well, let alone a QB like Cam Newton. This could end up closing as the lowest O/U for a Rams game all season. The only “competition” would be games vs. the Giants and Washington (w/ Dwayne Haskins), two inept offensive teams. 10* Over Patriots/Rams

8* Over Eagles/Packers (4:25 ET): Seeing as how Aaron Rodgers and the Packers just put up 41 on a very good Bears defense, they should have little difficulty scoring plenty of points here against the sinking ship known as the Eagles. Philadelphia dropped to 3-7-1 SU w/ a home loss to Seattle Monday night. That 23-17 defeat saw them pull off one of the great “backdoor covers” of the season with a TD + 2 pt conversion in the closing seconds (closed +6.5). That made it three straight games where the Eagles have scored exactly 17 points. They’ve got to be due for some more scoring, right?

As it turns out, Philly’s last five games have all stayed Under. But that includes two games vs. the Giants (who are 30th in PPG), one vs. Dallas (who was starting Ben DiNucci) and lousy weather in Cleveland. I was a bit shocked to see the Eagles hold the high-scoring Seahawks to just 23 points Monday night. They were particularly stout against the run (gave up only 76 yards on the ground). But on a short week I don’t see them having much success against Rodgers, who has thrown 53 touchdown passes in his last 23 regular season games.

Rodgers and this Packers offense average 31.7 PPG and have gone over 30 in 8 of their 11 games. If they were to hit that season average (certainly plausible), then we won’t need much scoring from the struggling Carson Wentz. The only Green Bay game in the last six weeks to stay Under came against Jacksonville. When these teams played last year, the Eagles won 34-27 (at Lambeau!), led by Jordan Howard’s 87 yards rushing and two touchdowns. Howard was just activated from the practice squad this week. This one will sneak Over. 8* Over Eagles/Packers

9* Under Jaguars/Vikings (1:00 ET): Last week saw Minnesota overcome an 11-point deficit in the 4th quarter to beat Carolina 28-27. The game-winning TD came in the final minute as the Vikings are now 5-6 SU on the year. They also had to overcome B2B fumble return for touchdowns to get the win last week. It’s actually quite impressive to win a game when you give up multiple defensive scores. It also means that the amount of scoring from that game was a bit misleading. With the Over now 6-0 in Minnesota home games, this total is pretty high and it’s a good time to bet the Under as they’re facing an opponent that’s bottom five in scoring.

I’m actually a bit surprised to see how much scoring Jacksonville has done lately. They’ve hit 20 in four of the last five games, the lone exception being a date with Pittsburgh’s top-rated defense, who held them to three points. Mike Glennon is now the starting QB for the 1-10 Jags, losers of 10 straight.. While his 1st start since 2017 went “okay” last week, Glennon was a bit lucky to be in position to tie the Browns late in the game. The Jags scored a late TD after a pretty questionable roughing the passer call to pull within two. Obviously you know they missed the subsequent 2-point conversion attempt.

Two of Jacksonville’s scoring drives last week totaled 44 yards. So they were probably lucky to score 25 points. They probably won’t be as lucky this week facing a Vikings defense that allowed only one touchdown last week and 10 points that weren’t off turnovers. Only two of Jacksonville’s last nine games have seen more than 52 total pts scored and the Under is 2-0 for them this season when the O/U line is above 50.0. 9* Under Jaguars/Vikings

9* Under Chargers/Bills (1:00 ET): I realize this is a “total” contrarian move with the Chargers having gone Over in each of their last seven games and the Bills doing so in their last three. But it’s a high number. For the Chargers, the team that has gone Over in seven straight, there’s a chance this O/U line could close as the highest for any game so far this season. (It’s been as high as 54.5 at some shops earlier in the week). There’s been only one previous Chargers’ game this year where the O/U line closed north of 50.

There have definitely been some “extenuating” circumstances helping these Chargers’ games go Over of late. For instance, each of the last two weeks they’ve had a punt blocked after their first possession! Both times the punt block led to their opponent scoring a touchdown. Despite that occurrence, it looked liked the game vs. Miami two weeks ago was still going to Under. But LA scored a “garbage time” TD in the final two minutes to send it Over. Last week against the Jets, the Chargers scored a defensive TD. Plus there was a safety at the end of the game.

Buffalo is off its bye week. They probably needed it considering the manner in which they lost to Arizona the prior week (Hail Mary). The Bills are more used to these high totals. But they are not immune to a poor offensive game. Before busting out against the two NFC West teams (Arizona, Seattle) the L2 games, they’d scored 24 or less four straight games. The Under has cashed the last five times the Bills have been off a SU loss. Also, the Chargers are 39-19-1 Under the L59 times they’ve been off a win. 9* Under Chargers/Bills

8* Under Texans/Lions (12:30 ET): I also like this Texans-Lions game to stay Under the total. While I do believe the Lions’ offense is going to bounce back from last week’s dreadful effort, the bar for “improvement” is low. They averaged just 3.4 yards per play in the shutout loss and gained fewer than 200 yards total. Those numbers will be way up this week vs. a Houston defense that not only ranks 2nd to last in yards allowed, but also just gave up 6.6 yards per play to New England. Still, it won’t be enough for this game to turn into a shootout. 

Houston’s offense has become pretty one-dimensional, failing to go over 100 yards rushing in four of its last five games. They got enough Deshaun Watson last week to overcome the Patriots 27-20, but that was still an Under. Two week ago, the Texans could only score 7 points in Cleveland (admittedly poor weather conditions), but it’s worth noting this offense is averaging just 22.7 PPG for the season. The Lions’ defense was a bright spot last week as it held Carolina to just 7 pts in the 1st half and 17 total before a 3-yard drive resulted in a late FG.

All four Lions’ home games have gone Over so far, but there’s a good chance this one has the highest closing line. They too are averaging just 22.7 PPG this season, the same number as the Texans’ offense. On the other side of the ball, the last two week have seen this Lions’ defense allow just 10 total points in the first half. The Texans’ defense, while still pretty bad, has allowed just 10 and 20 points its last two games. 8* Under Texans/Lions

10* Over Rams/Bucs (8:15 ET): So the Rams have gone Under in six straight games. That’s not easy to do in today’s NFL. The defense has been great, allowing 16 points or less in four of those six games. And no longer can you say they’ve just been capitalizing on a slew of poor offensive teams. Last week, they held high-powered Seattle to just 16 points, which was a season-low for the Seahawks. Just to illustrate how impressive last week’s defensive performance was, Seattle has scored at least 28 pts in every other game this season. But LA is about to be tested again here as they face Tom Brady & the Bucs Monday night. 

It was two weeks ago that Tampa Bay got embarrassed here at home in a 38-3 loss to the Saints. That was on the heels of another sub-par effort in primetime, which they won, but only 25-23 as 13-pt favorites against the Giants. So a lot of people were questioning this team as it made the trip to Carolina last week. But Brady and company silenced the doubters with a truly dominant effort. They crushed the Panthers 46-23 and were +357 in yardage. It was the 4th time since the start of October that the Bucs scored at least 38 points in a game. They come in averaging nearly 30 PPG (29.6), sixth most in the league. 

The Rams are 4-0 Under at home this year. But this game is in Tampa Bay. It’ll be their fifth time in the last nine weeks playing in the Eastern Time Zone. Not only does the number of points per game the Rams allow go up on the road (to 23.2), so does their own scoring average (up to 26.4). That’s the key here. The Over is 5-0 the L5 times the Rams have been an underdog w/ four of those games taking place on the road.  The Bucs averaged 7.1 yards per play last week. This may not be the shootout we got from these teams LY (55-40 Bucs win!), but we only need half that number of points to go Over here. 10* Over Rams/Bucs

8* Under Packers/Colts (4:25 ET): Green Bay barely escaped with a 24-20 win over Jacksonville last week. This is a team that thrived in close situations a season ago, going an extraordinary 9-1 SU in one-score games. That’s how you end up w/ a 13-3 SU regular season despite a rather pedestrian +63 point differential. Though just nine games, this year’s Packers have already outscored opponents by 53 points as they are averaging more than 30 points while turning it over only 5 times (second fewest). So you can definitely make a case that they’ve improved rather than regressed.

But here the Packers are going to be up against perhaps the stingiest defense in the entire NFL. The Colts rank 1st in total defense coming into this game, allowing just 290.4 YPG. They are #2 against the pass, #3 against the run and #4 in scoring. Last week they held the high-powered Titans below 300 total yards and to just 17 points. Don’t forget the last time Green Bay faced a defense ranked near the top of the league. That was Tampa Bay, who held them to just 10 points and 201 total yards. As great as he is, this probably won’t end up as a stellar game for Aaron Rodgers. The Colts defense has allowed the second fewest TD passes (11) and the lowest passer rating in the league.

Indianapolis winning so comfortably against the Titans is owed to a TD that came off a punt block. So they “really” only scored 24 last Thursday. Speaking of special teams touchdowns, the Packers allowed one - a 91-yd punt return - LW vs. Jacksonville. So their defense “really” only gave up 13 points. That’s a week after allowing just 17 (to San Fran) with most of that scoring coming in “garbage time.” The Under is 16-5 in Indy’s last 21 games vs. teams w/ winning records. 8* Under Packers/Colts

10* Under Jets/Chargers (4:05 ET): So let’s try this one again. I had the Under in the Chargers game last week. Unfortunately, they had a punt blocked, which gave Miami an early touchdown. From there, at the end of the game, the Chargers would go on to score a “garbage time” TD (were down 15) to officially push the game Over. It was their sixth straight game to go Over the total. Five of those games have ended up being one-score losses, four of them seeing LA blow a double-digit lead. Fortunately though for this week, the Chargers get to host the winless Jets, who are easily the worst team in the league this season.

Last week marked the first time all season that the Jets didn’t lose a game. That’s because they didn’t play. Last time we saw Adam Gase’s team was two Mondays ago when they almost beat the Patriots. That 30-27 loss was their second-highest scoring game of the season. I wouldn’t go expecting a repeat of that this week. The previous four games all saw the Jets score 10 points or less. They average a league-low 13.4 PPG (nearly 6 PPG fewer than the next worst team) and also last in yards per game (266.0), 34.9 fewer than the next worst team.. They have been held to 17 points or fewer in seven of their nine games this season.

So we can count on the Jets not scoring much here. What about the Chargers? Rookie QB Justin Herbert has played better than most expected, even if the performance hasn’t translated into wins. But I expect a conservative offensive game plan this week from the all-too conservative Anthony Lynn. I think it’s fair to say last week’s game against the Dolphins probably shouldn’t have gone Over. Miami was able to get 13 points by driving a total of 30 yards and also had a 32-yard TD drive. Before the loss to New England, four straight Jets’ games had stayed Under. I just think the Chargers are due for an Under and this is the perfect opponent for it. The Under is 15-7 when LA is favored. 10* Under Jets/Chargers

9* Over Seahawks/Rams (4:25 ET): I have been skeptical of the Seahawks all season, mainly because their woeful pass defense remains a huge liability. It cost them last week as they gave up 44 points and 415 yards passing to Josh Allen and the Bills. While that was only their second loss of the season, Seattle is getting outgained on the year (despite Russell Wilson) and has now given up more passing yardage in eight games than the famed “Legion of Boom” defense did the entire 2013 season! The Over is 6-2 in Seahawks games this season with the fewest total number of points scored being 53. 

The Rams, who are off their bye, are not the opponent Seattle wants to see right now. Since Sean McVay took over, Los Angeles has averaged more than 30 PPG against this Seahawks’ defense, which has never been worse than it is right now. Keep in mind that Jamal Adams returned last week and Seattle still got torched. LA lost two weeks ago to Miami 28-17 (which was my 10* NFL Game of the Year -- on Miami!), but actually outgained the Dolphins more than 3:1 in the game (471-145). I fully expect that with an extra week of preparation the Rams offense is going to put up a big number here against a defense that is last in yards allowed and 30th in scoring.

The Seahawks’ defense is currently on pace to allow the most passing yards EVER in a NFL season. The Rams’ Jared Goff has thrown for at least 290 yards in the last four meetings. Adams might be back, but he was terrible last week, and both Seattle corners are now banged up. But Seattle still has a chance here because of Russell Wilson, who leads an offense that is averaging 34.3 PPG. The Rams have gone Under in five straight, but those games were against the Giants, Washington, San Francisco, Chicago and Miami. The Seahawks are a much different opponent with Wilson having seven touchdown passes of 20+ yards this season. 9* Over Seahawks/Rams

9* Under Chargers/Dolphins (4:05 ET): Miami has turned into a real success story as they’ve gotten to 5-3 SU by winning four straight games. They’re 4-0 ATS as well during the win streak. But as much as I want to pull for them, they have been outgained by 456 yards since Tua Tagovailoa became the starting QB. They’ll have a special place in my heart due to being my 10* NFL Game of the Year two weeks ago and they beat the Rams 28-17. But the truth is that was one of the most misleading final scores of the year. The Dolphins were actually outgained by more than a 3:1 margin (471-145) in that contest!

Tua looked a lot better last week in leading a 34-31 upset over Arizona (on the road). But the ‘Fins were still outgained in that game by over 100 yards. The big story for Miami these last two weeks has been non-offensive touchdowns as they have THREE of them, two on defense and one punt return. Against the Rams, they also started a drive inside the five-yard line. So Tua really hasn’t moved the ball as well as you might think and the fact the team is averaging 31 PPG w/ him as the starter is a total mirage. On the flip side, I really like the Dolphins defense, which is allowing just 20.1 PPG this season, 4th fewest in the league. 

While Miami is on the rise, the Chargers can’t seem to get out of their own way. Last week was another close loss as all six defeats this year have been by seven points or less. That’s the most one-score losses in the first eight games of a season - ever! I’d love to say this is where they turn things around, but my power rankings actually say the value is on Miami here. But with the Dolphins’ recent scoring being a bit of a mirage and LA being 5-0 Over its L5 games, my call is that this ends up being a surprisingly low-scoring affair. 11 of the last 12 meetings between these teams have gone Under! 9* Under Chargers/Dolphins

10* Over Patriots/Jets (8:15 ET): Despite an unheard of four-game losing streak in Foxboro, I don’t think the Patriots should be written off just yet. They easily could have beaten Buffalo on the road last week. While certainly not up to the caliber of past Bill Belichick teams, this one is closer to average than the 2-5 record suggests. Facing the winless Jets Monday night, I think the offense gets back on track and starts to resemble what we saw earlier in the year in games against Seattle and Las Vegas. The pointspread is too high, so Over is the call Monday night. 

Statistically speaking, the Jets have one of the worst defenses in the league. They are in the bottom 7 in both yards and points allowed. Last week’s 35-9 loss to the Chiefs saw KC elect not to run the ball very much. The previous seven weeks the Jets allowed 110+ rushing yards. Expect them to get a healthy dose of Cam Newton tonight. The Pats gained 188 yds rushing LW vs. Buffalo, the 4th time this season they’ve gained 185 or more. This should be a “get right” game for the New England offense.

The Jets offense seems destined to have to start Joe Flacco at QB (Sam Darnold has a shoulder injury) and while that may not sound awesome, it’s not like Darnold had been playing all that well. No matter who the Jets’ starting QB is, improvement on third down has to be something we see. The team is last in the league, converting just 28.3% of 3D opportunities including 16.2% of its L37. That’s unsustainable and by the simple “law of averages” HAS to get better. While not the lowest O/U line for either team, it’s pretty close this week. The Over is 3-0 this season in Jets’ games where the total is below 42. All but two of their games have seen more points scored than this total. 10* Over Patriots/Jets

8* Under Saints/Buccaneers (8:20 ET): While so much focus will be paid attention to all the talent returning at receiver in this game, these are two of the top three run defenses in the league. Tampa Bay is 1st, giving up only 70.4 YPG on the ground while New Orleans isn’t too far behind (allows 90.6 YPG). So neither offense is going to run the ball all that effectively. Yes, I know every Saints game this season has gone Over the total. But there have been only EIGHT times in NFL history where a team has opened a season with eight consecutive Overs. Take the Under here. 

So Michael Thomas should be back for the Saints. Tampa Bay “expects” Chris Godwin back while the “controversial” Antonio Brown will make his debut here as well. That’s obviously a lot of talent at receiver, but I don’t expect any of those players to have big games Sunday night. Furthermore, the Bucs other standout WR (Mike Evans) has just five catches in his past three matchups with New Orleans. Saints RB Alvin Kamara has been hobbled by a foot injury this week. If you’re a fantasy owner, expect some of these star skill position players to have down weeks! 

While the Week 1 meeting between these teams saw 57 total points scored and (obviously) went Over, be aware that included a “pick six” from Tom Brady. Also, the Saints offense (w/ Thomas) gained just 271 total yards, a season-low. Tampa Bay had just 310 total yards, which was also their season-low. Both offenses are obviously now much more “in sync,” but I look for the defenses to steal the spotlight away from the much more heralded offenses in this one. I just can’t see another NO game going Over. 8* Under Saints/Buccaneers

10* Under Bucs/Giants (8:15 ET): The point spread for this game has been bet up considerably. While it’s hard to fathom Tampa Bay losing outright, laying double digits (especially on the road) is something I would almost never do in this league. So we turn to the total. The Buccaneers shouldn’t have much trouble containing the Giants’ meager offense Monday night. This Bucs’ defense is allowing just 20.3 PPG and is one of only three defenses in the league (Colts, Steelers) to be allowing LESS than 300 total yards per game. They are #1 against the run.

Heading into Sunday, Tampa Bay had the best point differential in the sport. They’ve outscored their opponents by 80 points. The defense has allowed more than 20 points in just two games this season. They allowed 34 in a Week 1 loss to the Saints and then 31 in a Week 4 win over the Chargers. In both games, QB Tom Brady was guilty of throwing a “pick six,” so the defensive numbers (in terms of points allowed) are even better than they already look. The Giants offense, in case you didn’t know, is one of the very worst in the league. They are averaging just 17.4 PPG and the only time they’ve topped 21 was against the Cowboys, who have arguably the worst defense in the league. 

So I’m pretty confident that the Giants are not scoring many points here. Not only have they scored 21 pts or less in six of seven games, they’ve been held under 17 four times. Those four times were against the best four defenses they’ve faced and a case could be made that TB is the BEST defense they will face all season! So it all comes down to the Giants defense hopefully containing Brady and company. The Bucs’ offense will be without Chris Godwin (one of their starting receivers) so that’s a plus on that front. They did put up 45 themselves last week, but that was on the heels of two games where they averaged a modest 330 YPG. Only one Giants game all season has seen more than 45 total pts scored. 10* Under Bucs/Giants

9* Under Bucs/Raiders (4:05 ET): This was originally supposed to be the Sunday Night game, but had to be moved due to COVID-19 concerns with the Raiders. In a terrible turn of events, Las Vegas may be without its ENTIRE starting offensive line this week! That’s a horrible situation no matter the opponent, but this week the Silver and Black happen to be facing a defense that is giving up a league-low 282 YPG and is second in sacks with 22. Do not expect the Raiders to do much scoring in this one. Take the Under.

Every Raiders’ game this season has gone Over this season (your result vs. Buffalo could vary) and the Over is 7-0-1 the L8 meetings w/ the Bucs, including that Super Bowl debacle when Jon Gruden was coaching AGAINST them. But given the situation that Las Vegas is in here, you certainly expect those trends to be bucked this week. The Raiders like to run the ball, but behind a makeshift O-line that’s going against the top run defense in the league, they aren’t about to have much success doing so. 

Tampa Bay was a HUGE winner for us last Sunday (Game of the Month) as they crushed the Packers 38-10. It was the fourth time in the last five games they held the opponent to 20 points or less. If they can keep Aaron Rodgers to just 107 yards passing, imagine the nightmare Derek Carr is in for as he tries to throw the ball behind a bunch of backups. The Bucs won’t score that many points this week, simply because they won’t have to. Last week, they had a pick-six and a one-play TD drive after another INT, so 38 pts was misleading. In terms of pace of play, these are two of the slowest teams in the league. 9* Under Bucs/Raiders

9* Under Panthers/Saints (1:00 ET): Coming out of a bye is usually considered a luxury, but not if you’re NOT healthy. New Orleans will be without both their starting WRs this week as Michael Thomas is still injured and Emmanuel Sanders tested positive for COVID. This is a Saints team that’s trailed by double digits each of its last two games, both of which were against losing teams (Detroit, Chargers). Whether the injuries cost them a win this week remains up for debate, but I do think that for the 1st time this season we’re about to see a Saints’ game stay Under the total.

Carolina comes in at 3-3, which is better than most would have expected. They were favorites for the first time last week, but lost 23-16 to Chicago and really it wasn’t that close as they got their only TD in the 4th quarter. They were held to a season-low 303 total yards and for the 4th time this season were held to 23 points or fewer. On the bright side, the Panthers’ defense has been steadily improving, holding the L4 opponents to an average of just 19 PPG. They gave up only 261 total yards to the Bears last week, which was the second time in three weeks they allowed less than 300.

I don’t think the Panthers are going to move the ball on the ground very effectively in this game as the Saints defense remains very stout against the run, giving up just 3.6 yards per carry. Remember Carolina lost RB Christian McCaffrey for the season, which is a very big deal! New Orleans knows Carolina QB Teddy Bridgewater well (he played for them LY) and hopefully Bridgewater can provide insight to his own defense on how to stop Drew Brees & the NO offense. These NFC South rivals do have a history of going Over against one another, but this could close as the highest O/U line for one of their games since 2016. The only other time since then we’ve seen a total of 50+, it ended up being a 12-9 final. 9* Under Panthers/Saints

10* Under Chargers/Saints (8:15 ET): The Under has not been a popular bet either of the L2 weeks on MNF. You had the Chiefs taking on the Ravens and the Falcons facing the Packers. In the case of the latter, it was the league’s worst defense facing the top offense. Yet both times the Under hit and I’m proud to report I was on it both times. With the record amount of scoring we’re seeing across the league, more opportunities to take the Under are going to open up and for the 3rd week in a row on MNF, this is one of them. 

New Orleans is 4-0 Over this season. Entering Week 5, the Texans were the only other team that could claim a perfect Over mark this season and their game (vs. Jacksonville) stayed Under yday. Now that game has no real bearing on this one, obviously. However, it did illustrate that a team isn’t going to go Over (or Under) every game and sometimes all it takes is the “right” opponent. The Chargers were 3-0 Under through three weeks before last week’s wild 38-31 loss to Tampa Bay.

The Chargers, who are starting a rookie QB (Justin Herbert), still only average 20.8 PPG. They actually gained just 324 yards last week, but had a defensive score + two long Herbert TD passes. Not a lot of sustained drives from them. They have injuries in the backfield (at RB). The Saints’ defense has held all four opponents under 400 yards and the Lions gained just 281 on them last week. The Saints’ offense, which will again be w/o WR Michael Thomas, hasn’t looked as good as you might think despite scoring 30+ pts in 3 of 4 games. 10* Under Chargers/Saints

10* Under Falcons/Packers (8:50 ET): Given how this NFL season is going, I admit taking the Under in this particular matchup does seem risky. The two teams are a combined 6-0 Over so far and Atlanta has the worst defense in the league (most points per game allowed) while Green Bay is averaging the MOST PPG on offense. But with everyone likely to be on the Over tonight, I’m going contrarian on the total. This is the highest O/U line for any Green Bay game in the L35 years. Take the Under. 

This will also likely close as the highest O/U line for any NFL game in the L2 seasons. Green Bay has scored at least 37 points in every game so far, a remarkable yet unsustainable achievement. They are averaging 6.9 yards per play! No team in NFL history had ever opened 3-0 SU while scoring 35+ points every game and never turning the ball over. The Packers are the first. But they have trailed in all three games. Despite starting a different O-line combination in every game, Aaron Rodgers has been sacked only twice. I just can’t see this continuing.

Atlanta has gone Under in eight consecutive primetime games, so there is that. Both teams are banged up at the receiver position as Davante Adams is questionable and Alan Lazard out for Green Bay while both Falcons starting WRs (Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley) are listed as questionable. Those would be significant absences and obviously work to the favor of the Under as neither team has a lot of depth at WR. It won’t be easy, but look for this one to stay Under. 10* Under Falcons/Packers

8* Over Cardinals/Panthers (1:00 ET): Through the first three weeks of the NFL season, the play on the field has largely been defined by Overs, which are 29-19 this season, tying the highest % of Overs through the first three weeks in the last 35 seasons! Furthermore, the average O/U line in the NFL this week is right around 50, which would be an all-time record. It is likely that this week will end up having the highest number of games w/ a total of 50+ in league history. This Arizona-Carolina clash is one of eight currently w/ a total of 50 points or higher. 

Despite all the Overs we’re seeing, someone forgot to “send the memo” to Arizona, who is one of only two teams in the league (Chargers are the other) not to have a single game go Over to this point. It’s not like QB Kyler Murray and company aren’t scoring. They’ve averaged 25.7 PPG and more than 400 YPG. However, turnovers really hurt them in LW’s surprise 26-23 home loss to Detroit. Two of Murray’s three INTs were in Lions territory. We know the Cardinals want to “play fast” and they shouldn’t have trouble moving the ball against the defense they face this week, provided they take care of it.

Carolina has been a bit more competitive than expected this year. They are off their first win, 21-16 over the Chargers. But don’t go confusing the Panthers’ defensive effort from last week as a “good one.” They still allowed over 400+ yards, most of it coming through the air from a QB (Justin Herbert) that was making only his 2nd pro start. The first two games saw the Panthers allow 65 total points. The Over had been 7-1 in Carolina’s L8 games, dating back to LY, prior to last week. The Over has hit the last four times these teams have played including a 38-20 Carolina win last season. Arizona WR DeAndre Hopkins is a game-time decision here, but on the flip-side their secondary is missing both starting safeties. 8* Over Cardinals/Panthers

9* Under Saints/Lions (1:00 ET): This may seem like a risky bet given it involves the Saints, who have gone Over in all three games so far. But I have a bit of a feeling that this week may turn into a “tipping point” of sorts with NFL totals as the record-setting number of Overs (now 30-19-1 through Thursday) has resulted in a record-setting average O/U line for Week 4. Half of today’s games have totals in the 50’s, including this one, which is one of the higher numbers of the week. I’m going Under on this one.

New Orleans won’t have WR Michael Thomas in the lineup Sunday and that’s key because right now the Saints are LAST in the league with only 283 yards from receivers. TE Jared Cook will also be out. The lack of a downfield passing game is a big reason why New Orleans has dropped consecutive games since 2017. Even when the Saints scored 34 points in the season-opening win over TB, that was misleading. They had a pick-six and were set up on short fields by several other Bucs’ turnovers. The Under is 9-4 the Saints’ L13 October games.

Detroit is off its first win of the year (26-23 at Arizona), but the offense has struggled to move the ball the L2 weeks, averaging just over 300 YPG. They don’t run the ball very effectively and the Saints’ defense is very good at stopping the run. Save for the 4Q vs. Chicago and the Green Bay game, the Lions defense has played pretty well this year. They have led in all three games, so I don’t see them letting this one get out of hand. I know these teams have a history of high-scoring games against one another, but this one bucks the trend. 9* Under Saints/Lions

8* Under Chiefs/Ravens (8:20 ET): This number is predictably high as you’ve got two of the great offenses in this league. But be aware that it’s also the highest O/U line for any Ravens game in HISTORY! Neither of Baltimore’s previous two efforts would have gone Over this number. In fact, neither did Kansas City’s. While neither defense has faced an offense like the one they’ll see tonight, both did excellent jobs containing DeShaun Watson. The Ravens and Chiefs combined to allow just 18 PPG in their respective wins over the Texans this season. 

Kansas City scored just nine points in the first half last week and had only 17 before a game-tying FG as time expired in regulation. So they can be slowed down. The Chargers gave Patrick Mahomes a MUCH different look defensively than they had the previous season and I expect the Ravens to do something similar tonight. These teams have met each of the last two seasons. While Baltimore is 0-2, my guess is they’ll be better prepared for Mahomes this time around. 

The Ravens did score 33 last week, but they had a defensive touchdown. I am counting more on the defense to carry them to victory tonight. That may sound crazy with all the focus (rightly) on the QB matchup of Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson. But I think the success that the Ravens will have in this game, at least offensively, will be on the ground. That should chew up some clock. Jackson didn’t even throw for 200 yards last week! Both teams’ Overs this season were by half a point. KC is 4-0 Under its L4 road games. 8* Under Chiefs/Ravens

9* Under Packers/Saints (8:20 ET): Both the Packers and Saints are 2 for 2 on the Over, so it’s not a surprise that the total is pretty high Sunday night. However, despite averaging nearly 30 PPG thus far, not all is well in New Orleans. HC Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees were both highly critical of their respective performances in Week 1 (even though they won) and then last Monday saw them lose out in Las Vegas as they could muster only 7 points in the second half. There are now legit questions concerning Brees’ arm strength.

Green Bay has put up 43 and 42 points in wins over the Lions and Vikings thus far. Aaron Rodgers has certainly looked like his old self, however there could be an issue tonight as WR Devante Adams is questionable and labeled a “game-time decision.” Adams is one of the top wideouts in the league and while Rodgers has a 6-0 TD-INT ratio thus far, the receiving corps beyond Adams isn’t great and drops far too many passes. Also, the Saints defense that Rodgers will be facing here is far superior to that of the Lions and Vikings, two teams that are a combined 0-4 thus far and total messes.

Brees will be without his top receiver as well in Michael Thomas, who led the league in catches last season. So far, New Orleans ranks just 21st in total offense. They gained less than 300 total yards vs. Tampa Bay in the season opener, then last week were nearly held scoreless after halftime. Take away the 17 pts the Saints had off turnovers in Week 1 and they are averaging just 20.5 PPG. But I think their defense, which was one of the league’s best in 2019, will step up tonight. The Under is 5-2 in GB’s L7 as a road underdog. 9* Under Packers/Saints

10* Under Cowboys/Seahawks (4:25 ET): Everyone will be expecting fireworks in “America’s Game of the Week,” but I think Cowboys/Seahawks will find a way to stay Under the total. This is a really high number, the likes of which you rarely see, especially this early in the season. While both teams were involved in shootouts last week - and Seattle has scored 73 points in two games behind leading MVP candidate Russell Wilson - I just don’t think the number should be quite this high. Take the Under. 

Dallas pulled off an all-time comeback last week against Atlanta, rallying from 12 points back in the final eight minutes to stun the Falcons 40-39. Dak Prescott threw for 450 yards, but that was against an awful defense. It should be pointed out that the reason the Cowboys were in such a large, early hole was turnovers. Three of Atlanta’s first four scores came off turnovers and five and they had four scoring drives of 31 yds or less. All told, the Cowboys defense wasn’t bad despite giving up 39 points. They allowed only 20 in Week 1, but of course Dallas lost that game because the offense wasn’t nearly as effective against the Rams as it was vs. Atlanta. That may have something to do with the fact the Cowboys always tend to struggle offensively on the road. 

Seattle had no problems beating Atlanta in Week 1 and that was on the road whereas Dallas got the Falcons at home. But it was a close one last week for the Seahawks as they outlasted the Patriots 35-30. Wilson now has the league’s highest completion rate EVER through two weeks. But he can’t keep completing 82% of his passes and for whatever reason he tends to struggle vs. the Cowboys, averaging only 154 yards passing in five games. The Under is 29-14 in Dallas’ L43 road games including 9-3 the L12 where they were an underdog. 10* Under Cowboys/Seahawks

10* Under Bengals/Browns (8:20 ET): It shouldn’t be all that surprising that this total is low. The two teams combined for a total of 19 points in Week 1, both losing in the process. Cleveland was blown out 38-6 in Baltimore while Cincinnati lost a close one (16-13) to the Chargers. We’ve got two former #1 overall draft choices starting at QB in this Thursday night matchup, including the most recent. While that sounds exciting, I saw some things in Week 1 that lead me to believe both Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow may continue to struggle here in 2020. 

Mayfield enters his third season in Cleveland with tempered expectations. He’s already on his third different head coach and third different playcaller since coming into the league. With COVID limiting offseason interaction, my guess is that it’s going to take awhile for Mayfield and 1st year Browns HC Kevin Stefanski to get on the same page. Mayfield didn’t look good from the outset last week, throwing an interception on the very first drive and finishing with only 189 yards despite being down virtually the entire game. The Browns averaged just 4.5 yards per play against the Ravens.

Burrow only threw for 193 yards in his NFL debut and missed some throws. The Cincinnati offense averaged just 4.4 yards per play. For both Mayfield and Burrow, this second game being on a short week doesn’t help. The Under has hit in each of Cleveland’s last five Thursday night contests. The Under is also 8-2-1 in the Bengals’ last 11 road games. As far as the defenses are concerned, the Bengals only allowed 16 pts last week and the Browns weren’t as bad as you think despite giving up 38 points. Four of Baltimore’s six scoring drives started at midfield or closer. 10* Under Bengals/Browns

8* Under Bucs/Saints (4:25 ET): America’s “Game of the Week” takes place in New Orleans and it’s the 1st EVER matchup (in league history!) of two 40+ year old QB’s. It’s two of the all-time greats with Tom Brady leading the Bucs (how weird does that sound?) and Drew Brees leading the Saints. In terms of how many points are going to be scored, the expectation is for a lot, given the offensive firepower that exists in both sides. Yet, despite that overwhelming sentiment (from bettors), the O/U line has come DOWN. This is a classic fade the public situation.

It’s easy to understand why the public will love the Over in the situation. Both Tampa Bay-New Orleans meetings last season went Over, each seeing 50+ points scored. Now the Bucs add Brady to the mix. But expecting Brady to be the “Brady of old” after this unusual offseason, at least right off the bat, seems like wishful thinking. It seems like there’s a good chance Brady may be without top WR Mike Evans, which would be a huge loss for the Bucs. Bottom line: I don’t see TB moving up and down the field in this first game. 

We’ve also got two of the premier run defenses from a season ago. Tampa Bay’s defense was actually #1 in the league at stopping the run! New Orleans was #4. The Saints’ defense returns 10 of 11 starters from last year. The one new starter is Malcolm Jenkins, who makes the secondary demonstrably better. With all the focus being on Brady & Brees here, don’t be surprised if it's the respective defenses “stealing the headlines.” 8* Under Bucs/Saints

10* Under Texans/Chiefs (8:25 ET): Kansas City is off a Super Bowl winning season in which it covered its final eight games. This despite trailing by double digits in three of the four playoff games, one of which being the Super Bowl and there were less than nine minutes remaining. Perhaps the most infamous of the three playoff comebacks came in the Divisional Round against the very same Texans that the Chiefs will open the 2020 season against. In that game, KC trailed 24-0 only to score 51 of the game’s final 58 points.

Though Houston obviously did not win the Super Bowl and blew a game in which it led 24-0, they did have a large amount of good fortune go their way in 2019. They were 8-3 SU in one-score games, including 5-1 in those decided by three points or less. That’s how you go 10-6 SU despite a point differential of -7 on the year. I had this team as a lock to regress even before an offseason filled with highly questionable personnel moves by HC/GM Bill O’Brien, the most notable seeing him trade away WR DeAndre Hopkins for “peanuts on the dollar.”

You see DeShaun Watson vs. Patrick Mahomes and the automatic inclination is to expect plenty of fireworks (see last January). But this is the 1st game of the year, after a condensed and unusual training camp, and a very high total for Week 1. Houston’s offense won’t be close to as good as it was last year as they lost over 45% of their offensive touches. KC won’t be going on the same kind of ridiculous scoring stretch it did in LY’s Divisional Playoff Game. The Under is 11-4-1 the Texans’ L16 September games. 10* Under Texans/Chiefs

10* Under 49ers/Chiefs (6:30 ET): Before the start of the season, San Francisco was my choice to be the most improved team in the league. Sure enough, they’ve gone from 4-12 to 15-3 SU and are in the Super Bowl for a seventh time in franchise history. The last time, under Jim Harbaugh and with Colin Kaepernick at QB, is the only one they’ve lost. That was against Baltimore, seven years ago, and they were never “in the money” as 4-point favorites (lost 34-31). While even I ended up being surprised over just how much the 49ers improved, make no mistake about it, this was the best team in the NFC all year long.

Kansas City did not finish with the best record in the AFC (Baltimore did), but here they are in their first Super Bowl in 50 years. It’s the first Super Bowl for HC Andy Reid since losing to the Patriots when he was with the Eagles. This team is probably better than any Eagles team he coached. The Chiefs are not only on an 8-game SU winning streak coming into the biggest game of the year, they have gone 8-0 ATS in those games as well. One of the biggest reasons for that is an improved defense. While we really haven’t seen that in either of the two playoff games, KC has allowed an average of just 13.7 PPG during the eight-game win streak.

Believe it or not, this is likely to close as one of the highest O/U lines for any Chiefs game this season. Early in the season, there were two games with 55-point totals. This will certainly close as the highest O/U line for any Niners game this year. SF games average 49.1 PPG. KC games average 50.0 on the dot. We know the 49ers can play defense as they rank #2 in yards allowed. Both of these defenses are top 10 in scoring. The Under is 7-2-1 in the 10 Super Bowls w/ totals of 50+ pts, including last year’s 13-3 game. Based on the two Conference Championship Games, the public will be on the Over in this game. I’ll take the Under. 10* Under 49ers/Chiefs

10* Under Packers/49ers (6:40 ET): This total is pretty close to what the combined number of points was in the regular season meeting. Of course that game, a 37-8 49ers’ win and cover as 3-pt chalk, was completely lopsided. I think Green Bay is going to be a lot more competitive this time around although I won’t deny that San Francisco remains the much better team, confirmed by the fact that they have a +186 YTD point differential while Green Bay is just +68. 

But this is a lot of points to lay to a team that has Aaron Rodgers at QB. Then again, Rodgers had one of his worst days as a pro back in Week 12 on this very field. He threw for just 104 yards and averaged 1.7 yards per attempt with no completion going longer than 15 yards. Fresh off its bye and back at full strength, the 49ers’ defense displayed similar form last week against the Vikings, holding them to just 3.3 yards per play and seven first downs total. In other words, I don’t expect the Packers to score very many points this week.

But the Green Bay defense is likely to keep them in this one. This is a team that hasn’t lost since that regular season matchup against the 49ers and during the 6-game win streak, they have yielded a total of just 94 points! Prior to last week’s 28-23 win over Seattle (I had the Over), the Packers’ previous four games had all stayed Under the total. It’s a much better defense that they are up against here and last week the Pack were held to 7 points after halftime. For the season, both defenses are allowing less than 20 PPG. 10* Under Packers/49ers

10* Over Seahawks/Packers (6:40 ET): All four Wild Card games were low-scoring and stayed Under the total. But the final Divisional Round matchup of the weekend figures to see some “fireworks” as arguably the two most overachieving teams in the NFL collide at Lambeau Field. Seattle, who beat Philadelphia 17-9 last weekend, is now 12-5 straight up. But they have just one win all year by more than eight points. Green Bay went 13-3 SU in the regular season, thus earning a bye, but they only outscored their opponents by 63 points and were 7-1 SU in one-score games. 

So I won’t dare make a play on the side here. But the total and how it’s been bet has caught my eye. While the win in Philly was ugly, Seattle did gain an impressive 6.7 yards per play last Sunday. That’s a strong average and I’m not sure the Packers defense is much better than the Eagles. Some traditional measures, like points allowed, might make it seem like they are. But Green Bay gave up more yards on a per play and per game basis. It’s been awhile since the Packers defense faced a QB anywhere near as dynamic as Russell Wilson.

The Packers’ ended the regular season on a 7-1 Under run including 4-0 L4. But again, the offenses they went against were not the best. The only three playoff teams they faced that weren’t Minnesota all scored at least 24 points on them. And one of the Minnesota games saw the Vikings gain over 7.0 YPP. The other they were without RB Dalvin Cook. Seattle’s defense isn’t that great either (allows 375 YPG, 6.1 YPP) and will be facing Aaron Rodgers, not Josh McCown. Rodgers has had a “down” year, but I look for him to play well here. 10* Over Seahawks/Packers

10* Under Vikings/Saints (1:00 ET): Finishing the regular season 10-6 SU is pretty good, but I feel Minnesota is better than their record as they played the last two games w/o RB Dalvin Cook and lost both. (Furthermore, they basically rested everyone in a meaningless Week 17 game vs. Chicago). Their YTD point differential of +104 was better than all but six teams in the league. That said, if they are to keep this Wild Card Game in New Orleans close, or even pull the outright upset, it'll likely be because of a defense that allows just only 18.9 PPG rather than Kirk Cousins and the offense. The O/U line has been bet up here and I see value on the Under.

The Saints went 13-3 SU despite missing Drew Brees for 5+ games. They won all five games Brees didn't start, which was key. But there's no doubt this team hit its stride down the stretch w/ Brees back in the lineup. Still don't discount the impact the Saints defense has had on the team's success this season. It's been the best in the league at stopping the run over the L2 years and that's key when facing a Vikings' offense that is going to look to put the ball in Cook's hands. 

In case you're wondering, this is a pretty high spread for the Wild Card round. Going back to 2012, it's only the 8th instance of a WC Game having a spread of a TD or more. The previous seven all went Under the total! In fact, 10 of the last 11 WC games with a spread of at least six points stayed Under. New Orleans is giving up only 21.3 PPG and allowed 17 pts or fewer seven times. 10* Under Vikings/Saints

10* Over Raiders/Broncos (4:25 ET): For a 7-8 team that's technically still alive for the playoffs, Oakland absolutely reeks. The Silver and Black have been outscored by 105 points this year. Only four teams have worse point differentials and none of them have more than five wins. Three of the four have four wins or less. How the Raiders have been able to get to 7-8 can be explained by a 7-2 SU record in one-score games. That's right. They have not won a game by more than eight points all year. Ironically, their largest win came in Week 1 against Denver, the team they'll conclude the regular season against.

Running back Josh Jacobs has been ruled out of this game, not a great sign for a Raiders team that needs A LOT to go right on Sunday to make the playoffs. But even w/o Jacobs, the likely NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, the Raiders still put up 24 points last week against a good Chargers' defense. Jacobs' replacement, DeAndre Washington, ran for 85 yards on 23 carries last week. That was along with QB Carr completing 26 of his 30 passes. Carr has completed over 83% of his pass attempts against the Broncos the L2 years, all of those of resulting in Oakland wins. 

It was a 24-16 final when these teams met on Monday Night Football in Week 1. That was back when the Broncos were still starting Joe Flacco at QB. Now its rookie Drew Lock. The Denver offense has generally been better with Lock at the helm, including in 27-17 win right here at home last week. The Oakland defense gives up 6.2 yards per play and 26.9 PPG. Look for WR Courtland Sutton to have a big game here. The L6 meetings may have all stayed Under, but this one won't. 10* Over Raiders/Broncos

8* Over Chargers/Chiefs (1:00 ET): This could be Philip Rivers final game as the QB of the Chargers. If this truly is it, then it comes in a manner all too familiar for him. The Chargers were a talented team this year, but simply failed to "get it done" in the "clutch." Last week's upset loss at home to the Raiders (24-17 as 6.5-pt chalk) dropped them to a mind-numbing 2-9 SU in one score games this season. Despite a 5-10 SU record, the Chargers have both outscored and outgained opponents this year. Whomever is the QB next year, this will be a better team.

Kansas City, having dominated the AFC West yet again, is headed to the playoffs. Seeding is still up in the air. They can still earn a first round bye w/ a win and Patriots loss. But seeing as New England is playing Miami at home, it's unlikely that scenario plays out. Still, the Chiefs do need to win here to avoid to falling to the #4 seed, which would happen if the Texans won and they lost. The Texans don't play until 4:00 ET, so KC won't know what that result is while this game is ongoing. So expect a strong start by the offense to try and put this one to bed. 

It's been KC's defense leading the charge in a 5-0 SU/ATS run since the bye week (Under also 5-0). They've given up an average of just 9.6 PPG and allowed only THREE touchdowns. The streak started with a 24-17 win over these Chargers, but the total for that game was much higher (51.5). We know what the Chiefs' offense is capable of, but the Chargers come in averaging a respectable 367.5 yards per game. They are capable of putting 20+ on the board, which would make this an easy Over. 8* Over Chargers/Chiefs

10* Over Steelers/Jets (1:00 ET): Obviously, you shouldn't expect this game to turn into any kind of shootout. But the total is too low in my opinion and I'll be playing the Over. Yes, that attempt failed in the Steelers' game last week against the Bills. But it certainly had its chances to go Over. Pittsburgh QB Devlin Hodges had two chances to tie the game, but threw interceptions in the end zone both times. Had he directed a game-tying drive, then the game would have gone to overtime (duh!) and then gone Over had either team simply kicked a field goal. This time, the Under streak for Pittsburgh (currently six games) ends. 

The Jets, save for the disastrous effort a few weeks back at Cincinnati, have been a decent offensive team as long as Sam Darnold is in at QB. They've scored at least 21 points in five of their last six games. Remember, I had a big Over play with them when they faced a Redskins team that was on an Under streak similar to the one the Steelers find themselves on now. The Jets giving up 42 points last week can probably be chalked up to "facing the Ravens," but I still think it's a better matchup for Pittsburgh than it was vs. Buffalo last week. 

The 10 points Pittsburgh scored last week marked their third fewest in a game all season. The Over is 5-2 when they are coming off a game where they scored 15 pts or less Hodges definitely did struggle, but it'll be easier for him if Ju-Ju Smith Schuster returns to the lineup this week. Schuster has been M.I.A. since the first Browns game, but was a full participant in practice Thursday. A notable name ON the injury list for the Steelers was CB Joe Haden, which would obviously hamper the secondary. The Jets are 6-1 Over following an ATS loss. 10* Over Steelers/Jets

10* Under Colts/Saints (8:15 ET): While New Orleans is 10-3, I've been pretty consistent this year in labeling them as a team that has been both "lucky" and "good." They've gone 7-1 SU in games decided by eight points or fewer, that lone loss coming last week to San Francisco by a score of 48-46. While it is tough to imagine the Saints dropping two straight at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, I'm not going to lay this many points w/ a team that has only three double digits wins this season, only one of those coming at home. Indianapolis, fighting for its playoff life, isn't about to simply "roll over" either. 

The Colts know a thing or two about close games. All but two of their games this season have been decided by seven points or less. One was a win, 33-13 vs. Jacksonville, and the other was a loss (31-17 vs. Tennessee). The only reason they lost that game to the Titans by more than a touchdown was an Adam Vinateri FG getting blocked and returned for a TD. 

With both teams coming off very high scoring losses (Colts lost 38-35 at TB), it's no wonder that the O/U has been bet up for Monday night. However, this Colts' offense hasn't performed up to par for three straight games now. The defense had a TD last week, something they can't continue to count on. WR TY Hilton remained limited in practice this week and will be a game-time decision. The offense just hasn't been the same without him. This could close as the 2nd highest O/U line of the year for the Colts despite them not having Hilton. 10* Under Colts/Saints

10* Over Bills/Steelers (8:20 ET): This game was "flexed" into the Sunday Night spot because - as of right now - these would be your two Wild Card teams in the AFC. Buffalo is 9-4, though coming off a 24-17 home loss to Baltimore. Pittsburgh has improbably continued to win and now is 8-5 following a 23-17 win over Arizona last week. Both teams are known more for their defenses, which is why we've got such a low total here. In addition, the last five Steelers games have all stayed Under (and last 3 for the Bills). But I look for this one to end that streak as it won't take much scoring. 

The Bills at one point had gone Under five straight times this season. It was back in the first five weeks of the season. I took them Over the following week, despite facing the lowest scoring team in the league (Miami) and sure enough the game went Over. You just don't see many teams go Over or Under more than five consecutive times. Even with the low amount of scoring in games involving these teams, the average number of total PPG for both just exceeds the current O/U line. Bills games average 37.4 PPG this year. Steelers games average 38.4. All we are asking for here is an "average" game. 

Devlin "Duck" Hodges is the latest player to step up for a Steelers offense that has been hit extremely hard by injuries. The offense has operated more efficiently w/ him than it did when Mason Rudolph was under center. In the three games Hodges has started this year, Pittsburgh has scored 24, 23 and 20 points. They should find success running the ball here as that's the weakness of the Bills' defense. QB Josh Allen played a terrible game last week against Baltimore, but should have a bounce back game here. The Over is 13-4 the L17 games where the Steelers were a home favorite. 10* Over Bills/Steelers

10* Under Texans/Titans (1:00 ET): While there's far more on the line here than just Tennessee's 7-game Over streak (like first place in the AFC South), that's what will be our focus here as it's time for my biggest NFL O/U release of the season! The key to the Titants getting hot has been Ryan Tannehill of all people. Since taking over for the ineffective Marcus Mariota, Tannehill has led the team to a 6-1 SU record (5-1-1 ATS), which now has them in a first place tie w/ the Texans. During the 6-1 streak, Tennessee has averaged 31.4 PPG. The only QB w/ a better passer rating - or WL record - than Tannehill over the L7 wks is Lamar Jackson. 

Tannehill becoming the Titans' starting QB also directly coincides w/ the team's 7-0 Over streak. Now they get set to for the first of two games w/ the Texans, who were just bushwhacked by Denver last week. Houston trailed 38-3 after the first drive of the second half and needed some garbage time scores from DeShaun Watson just to make things look reasonable (ended up losing 38-24). Making that result all the more head-scratching is the fact the Texans had just beaten the Patriots the previous week. I know there's been some concerns about the defense ever since JJ Watt went down, but Romeo Crenell's group should be playing better than it has. 

While Tannehill deserves most of the credit for Tennessee catching fire, his defense and special teams have both regularly contributed to the scoring as well. There's been a non-offensive TD each of the L2 wks for the Titans. Plus, they are getting a ridiculous number of "big" plays (65+ yd TDs) as well. Eventually, that's going to dry up. They have not scored more than 24 points against Houston since 2010! As for the Titans' defense, it has allowed more than 23 pts in only two games this season. This is the Under we are looking for. 10* Under Texans/Titans

10* Under Titans/Raiders (4:25 ET): Since taking over for the ineffective Marcus Mariota, Ryan Tannehill has led the Titans to a 5-1 SU (4-1-1 ATS) record and an average of almost 30 PPG. But before we go crediting this journeyman too much, let's note Tennessee's scoring average has not been all the offense's doing. Special teams and defense have both contributed to the scoring as well and that's something you cannot count on every game. Facing a Raiders team that has scored a grand total of 29 points its last three games, look for the Titans' 6-0 Over streak to end Sunday. 

So like I said, Tannehill has certainly had ample assistance since becoming the Titans' starting QB. Five weeks ago vs. Tampa Bay, the offense had two TD drives that started inside the opponents' 10-yard line. Three weeks ago, Tennessee had no business beating Kansas City, but got a defensive TD + a FG block that set up the GW score. Against Jacksonville two weeks ago, there was a six play sequence where they scored FOUR touchdowns, which is an insane occurrence. Last week's game vs. Indianapolis was tied 17-17 going into the final five minutes, but the Titans returned a blocked FG for a TD, then sent the game Over w/ a TD off a Colts turnover. The offense gained less than 300 total yards in the 31-17 victory.

Oakland has barely done any scoring of late. They rank last in the league the L3 weeks in points per drive at 0.85. This just doesn't seem like the time or place for Derek Carr and company to get back on track as they are facing the league's 7th best scoring defense (19.5 PPG allowed). Tennessee has held nine of its 12 opponents to 20 points or less this season. RB Josh Jacobs just recently revealed he's been playing with a fractured shoulder, so expect him to be less effective moving forward, especially with the right side of the Raiders' offensive line also banged up. 10* Under Titans/Raiders 

10* Under Cowboys/Bears (8:20 ET): Both teams are 6-6 SU, which seems crazy given the negativity surrounding the respective franchises. I faded Dallas on Thanksgiving, citing the rather toxic situation that exists between coach (Jason Garrett) and owner (Jerry Jones) right now. Sure there's plenty of talent on the field. The Cowboys also boast the league's 5th best point differential (+74). But that's largely been undone by the fact they are also 0-4 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less, a stark contrast to last season when they were a league-best 9-2 SU in that situation. 

Chicago won 12 games last season (and the division), making them one of the favorites in the NFC coming into 2019. QB Mitch Trubisky was even getting consideration as a potential MVP candidate by bettors, which is downright laughable in retrospect. But the Bears have regressed badly, which really isn't all that shocking and it's easy to pinpoint why. The offense, Trubisky in particular, have been BRUTAL. They come in averaging just 17.7 PPG, which is 27th in the league and none of the teams that rank below them have more than four wins. Luckily, they also have a defense that is allowing 17.3 PPG (4th best). 

The 24 pts scored by the Bears last week in the win over Detroit actually marked a six-week high for them. I had the Over, but the number was really low thanks to the Lions' iffy QB situation. Considering Chicago has scored more than 25 pts only only time all season - and it was Wk 3 on a terrible Washington team - I'd say they aren't much of a threat to score a ton of points Thursday night. Dallas is only allowing 19.7 PPG. As for the Cowboys' offense, despite all that talent, they've scored all of 24 pts the L2 games combined. Granted, that was facing two of the top three scoring defenses in the NFL, but as stated above, the Bears rank 4th in that department. 10* Under Cowboys/Bears 

10* Under Titans/Colts (1:00 ET): What an interesting season it's been with Tennesee totals. After winning the season opener 43-13 in Cleveland (easy Over), the next five games all stayed Under. I took the Over when they hosted the Chargers on Oct 20 and it cashed (barely). Since then, every game has gone Over. If you're looking for a reason for the big change, it can be tied to Ryan Tannehill of all people as the Titans offense has been much more effective w/ him as the QB as opposed to Marcus Mariota. But I like the Under this week as the Titans are matched up w/ a familiar opponent.

The Colts played the Titans in Week 2. It was a 19-17 game, won by Indianapolis. Mariota started that game for Tennessee, so this will be Indy's first look at Fitzpatrick in a Titans' uniform. In the games Tannehill has started, Tennessee is 1st in the league in red zone efficiency, scoring a TD on 13 of 14 possessions. But I'm still skeptical of Tannehill. The Colts' defense is allowing just 20.5 PPG and has allowed more than 24 in regulation just two times all year. The Titans' L2 games have seen them score their highest point totals since the season opener, but they still are averaging just 22.3 PPG on the year and 18.8 PPG on the road.

The Colts' offense likes to run the ball but RB Marlon Mack (hand) is still out. Plus, the Tennessee defense has permitted only one 100+ yard rusher all season - and it was Christian McCaffery. The Titans are allowing just 19.7 PPG on the year and 17.8 PPG on the road. So we're looking at some really low-scoring games when the Titans are the road team. Speaking of low-scoring, the Colts managed only 17 points LW in Houston. WR TY Hilton is also out here. The Titans scored 4 TDs in six offensive plays last week, which will not happen again. 10* Under Titans/Colts 

10* Under Saints/Falcons (8:20 ET): When I released Atlanta as a *10* Game of the Week selection three weeks ago in New Orleans, admittedly there wasn't much belief that the Falcons would win straight up. After all, they were two touchdown underdogs to a Saints team that hadn't lost since Week 2. But win straight up is precisely what the Dirty Birds did. The most shocking thing about it is just how dominant a SU victory it was. A previously non-existent pass rush showed up in a major way for Atlanta w/ 6 sacks and 11 QB hits and they led pretty much from start to finish in what ended up being a 26-9 final. Can the defense do it again? I think so! Take the Under here. 

The week after they stunned the Saints, the Falcons defense stepped up big again in a 29-3 win at Carolina. At that point, it certainly "felt" as though their season might be turning around as they returned home to face a fellow 3-7 team, Tampa Bay. But we faded and the Falcons lost 35-22. Not sure what happened to that defensive resurgence, but the Bucs offense had a big day. Atlanta's offense did not w/ only 13 pts through three quarters. They had a late garbage time TD that sent the game Over. That Over would not have been possible w/o a late TB defensive score as well. The Falcons only average 22.0 PPG this year.

The Saints have been one of the luckier teams this year. They were fortunate to go 5-0 SU w/ Teddy Bridgewater filling in for an injured Drew Brees. Last week, they pulled another "rabbit out of the hat" w/ a 34-31 win over Carolina, kicking a GW FG as time expired, only after Carolina missed its own FG try. Though they appeared to look "as good as ever" last week, this Saints' offense has its problems. They tend to start slow and have had four different games where they failed to score a TD in the first three quarters. They only average 24.7 PPG, but are fortunate to have a defense which allows just 20.9 PPG. 10* Under Saints/Falcons

8* Over Bears/Lions (12:35 ET): Low total here as both teams have been going Under quite regularly of late, including one game where they played each other. That 20-13 Week 10 result (that went in the Bears' favor) marked the first time the Lions were forced to start Jeff Driskel in place of the injured Matt Stafford. While it may seem a little challenging to handicap this rematch in light of the Lions' QB situation (they may be down to third-stringer David Blough), I am forging ahead w/ the Over. It doesn't take all that much to send a game Over a total like this. 

Chicago has had its own QB issues, bouncing back and forth between Mitchell Trubisky and backup Chase Daniel. Given how ineffective he's been, it's stunning to think back to August when Trubisky was getting bets to win league MVP. He did lead his team to victory last Sunday, 19-14 over the Giants, and while it was ugly the Bears offense did gain 20 first downs. All 19 pts were scored in the 3rd quarter. The Lions' defense they'll be up against here is not good. It has allowed at least 23 points in all but three games this year. 

Obviously, I'm hopeful Driskel will be the starter here for the Lions. But if not, I'm still confident the offense will be able to score enough to help send this one Over. I know both offenses are short-handed, but this reminds me of a few weeks ago when I bet the Over on Jets-Redskins and won. This is the NFL and eventually an offense is going to start scoring. In this case, we have two that are long overdue to put some points on the road. Two weeks ago, with Driskel at the helm, the Lions did score 27 against the Cowboys. Last week's loss to the Redskins saw them put up a respectable 364 yards at 5.1 per play. 8* Over Bears/Lions

10* Over Ravens/Rams (8:20 ET): This is a much different Rams team than we’re accustomed to seeing under HC Sean McVay, especially on the offensive side of things. McVay’s first two years here brought back memories of the “Greatest Show on Turf,” but 2019 has seen QB Jared Goff regress to a level not seen since he was a rookie operating under a different coaching staff. At least the Rams defense has held up their “end of the bargain” recently, giving up a league-low 11 PPG the last four weeks. That’s allowed for a 3-1 SU record, but Monday night they are underdogs against Baltimore team that leads the league in scoring at 34.1 PPG. With the Ravens’ offense doing most of the “heavy lifting,” look for this game to go Over.

Those last four games have seen the Rams’ defense go up against Atlanta, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Chicago. Every single one of those opponents has had issues at the QB position. Baltimore has no issues w/ Lamar Jackson now the betting favorite to win league MVP. With Jackson passing and running, the Ravens have scored 30+ pts in four straight games. They scored a total of 90 in just the L2 games. Perhaps the most impressive thing of all with this Ravens’ offense is that they are averaging 38.4 PPG on the road! Remember the Rams gave up 55 at home to the 3-7 Bucs earlier this year. 

While I believe Baltimore will be playing a significant role in this game going Over, don’t discount what the Rams can do either. I know they are not what they’ve been the last two seasons, but they’ve faced two tough defenses the last two weeks. Baltimore’s D is giving up 5.8 yards per play. The Rams will get back WR Brandin Cooks this week, which should help not just Goff, but also fellow wideout Cooper Kupp. This Rams offense has had some rough days when facing some of the league’s top defenses, but they also have scored at least 27 points in half their games. I don’t consider the Ravens an elite team defensively anymore. 10* Over Ravens/Rams

10* Over Chiefs/Chargers (8:15 ET): The Chiefs have owned the Chargers in recent seasons, winning 9 of the previous 10 head to head meetings. The one loss occurred the last time they met, Week 15 of last year when Los Angeles prevailed 29-28. But the Bolts were also a much better team last year. They wound up winning 12 games, the same number as KC. Like LA, the Chiefs come into this game somewhat desperate for a win as they have lost four of six, including Patrick Mahomes return from injury a week ago at Tennessee. The call is Over here as this should be a high-scoring game. 

While they aren't scoring as many points as last year (not surprising), there's nothing wrong w/ the Chiefs' offense. They've averaged 29.2 points in the games Mahomes has started. In his return last week, Mahomes threw for 433 yards in a losing effort. But the reason the team lost that game to the Titans is a defense that remains pretty awful. Last week marked the third time in five games that the Chiefs allowed 30+ points. They are also 31st in the league against the run, giving up 149 YPG. There's a reason the L3 Kansas City games have all gone Over.

With QB Philip Rivers leading the NFL in passing yardage (2,816) and RB Melvin Gordon off his 1st 100+ yard rushing game of the season, the Chargers have the horses necessary to take advantage of the Chiefs' poor defense. The two meetings LY saw 57 and 66 total pts scored. This game will be played at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, Mexico. A questionable playing surface will make life hell for defenders in coverage. In addition to winning by fading KC last week, I also had the Over in the Chargers' 26-24 loss to the Raiders. 10* Over Chiefs/Chargers

10* Over Jets/Redskins (1:00 ET): The Jets finally woke up last week and scored a season-high 34 points in a rare win (just 2nd of the year), beating the Giants. Speaking of rare, the Redskins didn't lose last week. But that's only because they were on a bye. This is probably the league's ugliest game on paper since each team played Miami. Interestingly, Washington won their game in Miami (17-16) while the Jets lost theirs (26-18). But that doesn't mean as much when you consider the Skins suffered a 24-3 loss to the same Giants team that the Jets just beat. Bottom line is I'm expecting a higher scoring game than usual for these two teams. Take the Over.

Were the Jets to match last week's point total, then they'd be on the cusp of sending this one Over by themselves. Now expecting the Jets to score 34 points again seems a bit foolish. After all, last week was easily a season-high and just the second time they've topped 20 pts in a game all year! But this porous Redskins' defense may allow for something close to what we saw last week. While Washington's defensive numbers have gotten better as the season has worn on, they still allow a 72.5% completion percentage and 5.7 yards per play. They've gone against some weaker offenses recently and also played in a heavy downpour vs. San Francisco. I believe this will be one of the Jets' better offensive games of the year. They've scored 91 pts in the five games since Sam Darnold has been back, which may not sound like much, but it also includes getting shutout by New England.

The big news coming out of D.C. this week is that rookie QB Dwayne Haskins will be starting the rest of the way. Might as well as Washington's offense hasn't done much all year. The last six games have seen them score a total of 45 points, a stretch where the Under is 6-0. And remember they scored 17 of those 45 points in the win over Miami. But coming off a bye, Haskins should be the most prepared he's been all year. Similar to the Jets, I'm calling for one of the Redskins' better offensive efforts this week. It's not like the Jets' defense is all that great. They allow 29.0 PPG on the road and have given up at least 26 pts in six of their last seven games. 10* Over Jets/Redskins

10* Under Seahawks/49ers (8:15 ET): I'm pretty shocked to see how little recent success the 49ers have had recently NFC West rivalry. Then again, I said the same thing going into last week's game vs. Arizona, whom they hadn't beaten since 2014. Now it's time to turn to Seattle. Going back to the infamous 2013 NFC Championship Game loss (where Richard Sherman sounded off on Michael Crabtree), the Niners had lost 10 in a row to the Seahawks. That losing streak ended w/ a 26-23 victory in Week 15 last year, right here at home as 3.5-point underdogs. Now the Niners look to make it two in a row as they put their perfect 8-0 SU record on the line Monday night. 

Last Thursday in Arizona was one of the rare times this SF defense looked mortal this season. They allowed the Cardinals to gain 7.1 yards per play in a game that got shockingly close at the end. The Niners still won though, 28-25. Going from playing on a Thursday night to MNF should allow for this defense to "get right" again. The 49ers are #1 in the league in yards allowed per game (241.0) and #2 in points (12.8). Only one QB (Andy Dalton!) has thrown for more than 240 yds against them as they've allowed the fewest number of completions and yards through the air. Bottom line is I expect a big bounce back effort from this excellent defense Monday night. 

The Niners' offense will be getting some key pieces back. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk is set to return as are the two starting tackles, Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey. But at the same time, TE George Kittle (who is Jimmy Garoppolo's favorite target) is doubtful and so is kicker Robbie Gould. So that's a break for the Seattle defense. The Under has gone 13-4 in Sunday/Monday night games this season (last night's MIN-DAL result pending) and w/ this being a divisional battle, I expect the same to happen here. 10* Under Seahawks/49ers

**As a BONUS, do a 7-pt teaser on side & total. SF +1 and Under 55

10* Under Panthers/Packers (4:25 ET): Going back to 2005, the Over is 7-0 when these teams meet. But as we saw last week, the Packers offense is far from perfect. In a game where we faded them, they were held to 13 first downs, 184 yards total and 3.8 yards per play. They lost 26-11 out in LA, ending what had been a 4-game win streak. At 7-2, GB is still in good shape as they'll likely be favored in all but two games the rest of the way. But last week's offensive effort is tough to shake for us. This is a team "due" for some Unders after 5 of 6 games prior to last week's loss had gone Over. We're on the Under here. 

Carolina has gone Over in four straight games scoring 30+ in three of them (all wins) while conceding 51 (to San Francisco) in the lone loss. We were on that Over in the loss to San Francisco. The Panthers are now officially Kyle Allen's team after Cam Newton was placed on IR this week. If Newton wasn't 100 percent, then that's the right decision. But I have a hard time believing this team is better, long-term, w/ Allen at the helm. They were held under 300 yds by a poor Tampa Bay defense three weeks ago in London. Last week was just the second time in the L5 games they gained more than 300 total yards. 

On paper, this Packers defense facing Carolina RB Christian McCaffery doesn't seem like a good matchup. It seems as if any "improvement" by this Packers defense may have been overstated early in the year when they were facing some weak defenses. Since Wk 4, they've given up at least 22 pts every game. But I'm calling for their best defensive effort since Week 3 in this one. In terms of YPG, both of these offenses rank in the bottom half of the league. The Over streaks, both head to head and for Carolina, are "due" to end here. 10* Under Panthers/Packers

10* Over Chargers/Raiders (8:25 ET): How about them Chargers? We had them Sunday as they delivered an outright win over the Packers, 26-11 as 3.5-point dogs. Few, if any, gave the Lightning Bolts a real chance heading into that one. But I saw a slightly overrated Green Bay team ripe to be upset. Los Angeles played arguably its best game of the season, outgaining the Packers 442-184 for the game and 6.5 to 3.8 on a per play basis. While it might seem strange to read, look for the Chargers' defense to be tested more this week by the Raiders than it was by the Packers. LA is 7-1 Under its last 8 games, but take the Over on this one. 

Oakland also got its 4th win of the season on Sunday. The Silver and Black beat the Lions 31-24 as a three-point favorite, the first time all year that the Raiders were chalk. They've now gone Over in 5 of the last 6 games. The past five weeks have seen the Raiders score 24 pts or more in every game. That's a number the Chargers haven't allowed more than except one time all year (allowed 27 to the Texans). So something will clearly have to give in this AFC West tilt. Recent history may not be on our side here as the L5 meetings have all gone Under. But w/ the Chargers offense looking improved last week and the Raiders also matching their season high in pts scored in a game, this one should break the trend.

The Chargers' defense was one of the primary reasons I called for the upset LW vs. GB. They are allowing just 18.7 PPG for the year, including 15.5 on the road. But they've also not exactly faced a tremendous slate of opposing QB's and offenses. Derek Carr has averaged nearly 300 yards passing the past three games. The Raiders also ran for 171 yards against the Lions, the 4th time in the last 5 wks they went for 150+ on the ground. But a problem the team still has is a defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in most significant statistical categories. Last week, the Lions gained an amazing 7.5 yards per play! 10* Over Chargers/Raiders 

10* Over Browns/Broncos (4:25 ET): We're long ways from the 1987 & '88 AFC Championship Games that these teams faced off in. In 2019, both are struggling to remain relevant, even in a weaker than usual AFC. For Cleveland, this is terribly disappointing as they had high expectations (believe it or not) coming into the season. Those expectations seem foolish in retrospect, but they were there. As for Denver, not a ton was expected in Vic Fangio's 1st year, but I thought they'd improve on LY's 6-10 SU record. At 2-6 right now, that doesn't seem very likely. Brandon Allen will make his first NFL start at QB this week, replacing the injured Joe Flacco. Not like the offense was doing much w/ Flacco in there though, so I would be careful about calling this a downgrade. 

Calling for an Over here might seem like I'm being a contrarian. After all, Denver's last four games have all stayed Under. So have 19 of their last 24 games. Replacing Tim Tebow was easy (Peyton Manning!) for John Elway, but Elway hasn't come close to finding anything close to a successor for Manning. Flacco wasn't the answer and Allen probably won't be either. But an Over would seem to be in the works sooner rather than later as this stretch of low-scoring games can't be sustained. By the way, the Broncos have lost THREE games in the final minute this year, so their record could be a whole lot better right now. Cleveland's defense has allowed 20+ points in all but one game this season. 

I also think this is where the struggling Browns' offense gets on track. Last week they were nearly identical to the Patriots in total yards, running a fewer amount of plays. Three turnovers, all on successive possessions, killed them. That was after blowing a lead at home to Seattle the previous week. While the 2-5 SU record is disappointing in Cleveland right now, the Browns have faced a pretty tough schedule. The rest of the way things get progressively easier as they'll be favored in at least the next four games. Cleveland's offense is gaining 6.2 yards per play this season and RB Nick Chubb has had one 37+ yard rush in four straight games. Denver's defense has played admirably, but that may not last as they are set to face some better offenses (including this one) in what is a lost season. 10* Over Browns/Broncos

8* Over Redskins/Bills (1:00 ET): Buffalo's defense, which held Tom Brady and New England to just 16 pts and 224 total yards, has taken a bit of a hit the past two weeks. First it was winless Miami hanging 21 points on them in a surprisingly close game. Last week, the bubble finally burst as the Eagles came in and ran wild, for 218 yds over land, en route to winning 31-13. Previous to those last two efforts, the Bills had not allowed more than 17 points to any opponent and all five games stayed Under. While this week's opponent (Washington) is not a particularly strong outfit, the last 2 weeks have at least shown us the Bills' defense is far from invincible. Take the Over here. 

Washington started the year w/ three straight Overs, but the Under has since gone 5-0. The biggest problem is obviously an offense which is averaging 12.4 PPG, third fewest in the league right now. Those L5 games have truly been dismal efforts when the Redskins have the football as they've scored a grand total of 36, almost half of those coming in the team's lone win, which was over Miami. Since that win, the offense has not scored a single TD. QB Case Keenum is injured, so now rookie Dwayne Haskins will make his first career start. While Haskins has looked far from great in limited appearances, he does represent somewhat of a "Wild Card" element to this week's game. 

Something I do fully anticipate in this game is the Redskins' defense regressing. After giving up 30+ pts in four of the first five games, they've allowed less than 15 PPG the L3 and just three TD's. That sort of sounds impressive, especially when you consider they've faced both the 49ers and Vikings. But that 49ers' game was decimated by rain and the Vikings, despite scoring only 19 points, gained 434 yards on 6.5 per play. There were a total of five 10+ play drives that ended in FG's in that Vikings game. Miami scoring 16 pts on the Redskins was actually above their season average. I expect Buffalo's offense to have a big game here and there's hope for Washington's too as both teams can run the ball well against defenses that appear vulnerable. The Over is still 20-8 the Bills' last 28 home games and this is a low number. 8* Over Redskins/Bills

10* Over Panthers/49ers (4:05 ET): By virtually every objective measure, San Francisco is the 2nd best team in the league right now.  Few, if any, saw this coming. But I can say that we at least saw this as the team most likely to improve its record in 2019. When it came to injuries, turnovers and just plain bad luck, the 49ers were hit pretty hard in 2018. But there's no "smoke and mirrors" when it comes to this 6-0 SU record as the Niners are the only team besides the Patriots w/o a loss and they've got the second best point differential as well. Their future outlook seems promising as well. They'll be favored in each of the next five games unless something major changes. 

This week's opponent is the Carolina Panthers, who are off a bye. The week before the bye, Carolina was in London, beating division rival Tampa Bay 37-26 (as 2-pt favorites) thanks in large part to SEVEN Bucs' turnovers. Quite frankly, the Panthers were a little fortunate to win/cover in that they were outgained 407-268. But in this league, you're going to win 99.9% of the time when the opponent turns it over 7 times. Of course, the story we need to talk about right now w/ Carolina is QB Kyle Allen. In three of the four games Allen has started, the Panthers have scored 34+ points. Allen isn't better than Cam Newton, but he is clearly better than an INJURED Newton.

The 49ers have largely done it w/ defense, giving up just 223.5 yards and 10.7 points per game. Both numbers rank 2nd in the league, trailing only the Patriots. The Niners have the league's top pass defense, so it will be interesting to see if Allen's stretch of good play halts here. Regardless, you can look for SF to pile up some points. Carolina's defense isn't that great and has given up an average of more than 450 yards the L2 games. Their secondary was shredded by both Gardner Minshew and Jameis Winston, so Jimmy Garoppolo should be in line for a strong stat line this week. The Niners offense is averaging 441 yards at 6.3 YPP at home so far. Certainly conditions will be a lot nicer here compared to last week in D.C. (9-0 shutout of the Redskins). 10* Over Panthers/49ers

10* Under Redskins/Vikings (8:20 ET): We said it last week and will reiterate it again here. Minnesota is one of the better teams in the league. Mike Zimmer's team has outgained its opponents by 1.3 yards on a per play basis and has the third best scoring differential in the league. They've been a dominant home team, winning all three games here by double digits, and have scored a total of 80 points the L2 weeks. Kirk Cousins and the offense figures to have its way Thursday night against a Washington defense that has been one of the worst in the league so far this year. 

But the Redskins' offense certainly doesn't figure to score many points this week. They certainly haven't scored many this year. Only the Jets and Dolphins have scored less this year and over the last four weeks, the Skins have scored a grand total of 27 points. That includes 17 in their lone win of the season, which was against Miami. The other three games they failed to scored more than 7. Last week in the rain, they couldn't manage any points in a shutout loss to the 49ers. With a coaching change having already taken place, things are looking rather grim in the Nation's capital right now. 

Washington's last four games have gone Under and the last three didn't have totals any higher than this one. While two of those last three games came against New England and San Francisco, the two top defensive teams in the league right now, the Skins could also manage only a field goal against a Giants' defense that is not very good. The Vikings defense isn't too far behind those of the Patriots and 49ers, statistically. But also look for the Vikings' offense to struggle a bit more than usual this week as WR Adam Theilen is out w/ a hamstring injury. With Theilen out, Stefon Diggs can't possibly match his production from the last two games where he's had 14 catches for 300+ yards. The last six meetings between the teams have all gone Over. Not this one. 10* Under Redskins/Vikings

10* Over Patriots/Jets (8:15 ET): The last time these AFC East rivals met was Week 4 and the Jets were starting a practice squad QB (Luke Falk) that isn’t even with the team anymore. Yet they managed to not only cover (were huge 3 TD underdogs), but the game went Over (barely) as well. We had the Jets and Over in that game and while the key to cashing both were TWO non-offensive scores from the Jets, it is curious that the O/U line isn’t higher for Monday night’s rematch. With Sam Darnold back at QB, the Jets are much more formidable on offense than they were with Falk. Take the Over.

We came into the season with a fairly optimistic view of the Jets. That quickly dissipated due to Darnold being sidelined with mono. But we saw what the team is capable of last week as they upset the Cowboys 24-22 as 7-point home underdogs. In his return, Darnold threw for 338 yards. Look for RB Le’Veon Bell to start being more productive as well now that Darnold is back. Again, unlike the last time they faced the Patriots, the Jets will score offensive touchdowns here. The fact that the O/U isn’t any higher for Darnold starting instead of Falk (who was TERRIBLE) is definitely perplexing to us. 

New England’s defense has been downright tremendous so far, but it should be noted that this start has come at the expense of some pretty bad teams. Also, they have been historically great on third down, nearly to the point of unsustainability. Tom Brady and the offense have scored at least 30 pts in every game but one (against a very good Bills defense), which is a trend that we can see continue here. They didn’t need to do much the last time they faced the Jets. This game should go Over much more easily as both offenses are now at full strength. The Patriots will do the heavy lifting while the Jets will score enough to “help out.” 10* Over Patriots/Jets

10* Over Chargers/Titans (4:05 ET): Two teams scrambling for a win meet in Nashville w/ the 2-4 Chargers taking on the 2-4 Titans. Both teams have lost four of five, including two straight, since an Opening Week win. In the case of the Chargers, the decline from last year can be pinned on injuries. In the Titans’ case, there’s now some real uncertainty about Marcus Mariota as the franchise QB. In fact, Ryan Tannehill will start this game. Tennessee games, on average, have been the lowest scoring in the league at just 31.6 PPG. The last five have all gone Under. The Chargers’ last four games have all gone Under. But w/ a low total, we think this one will be different. Take the Over. 

The Titans were shutout last week (16-0 by Denver) and have just ONE offensive TD in the L10 quarters. So with a top five scoring defense, this hardly seems like an ideal candidate for an Over. But they have made a QB change as HC Mike Vrabel is looking for the dreaded “spark.” We believe Tennessee is “due” for such a spark. Also, the Over is 41-19-3 the Titans’ L63 home games vs. a team w/ a losing road record.

The Chargers w/ Philip Rivers are even more overdue for an offensive resurgence. They are tied for the league lead w/ four red zone turnovers. That means they’re missing out on potential points. They did gain nearly 350 yds last week vs. Pittsburgh, but had only 17 points. While both defenses rank high in the scoring department, they do give a fair number of yards and big plays. Los Angeles now has RB Melvin Gordon back in the fold and it’s only a matter of time before he gets going. With two teams at 5-0 Under their L5 games respectively, this just “feels” like we’re in line for the game to sneak Over a high total.  10* Over Chargers/Titans

8* Over Dolphins/Bills (1:00 ET): At the start of the year, who would have thought Buffalo would be laying more than two touchdowns in any game? Granted, we knew the Dolphins would be bad. But they’ve turned out to be HISTORICALLY bad, starting 0-5 while being outscored by 138 points. Last week was probably their “best” chance at winning a game this year as they were at home and facing Washington. Down 17-16, HC Brian Flores elected to go for a two-point conversion and the win. The ‘Fins failed to convert obviously and remain one of two winless teams in the league.

Normally, we would be wondering just how in the world Miami is going to score points in this game. But we admire Flores’ decision to turn to Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB. Fitzpatrick is the one who engineered the near comeback LW vs. Washington. A Dolphins’ offense that has managed only 42 points for the YEAR stands to score more with FitzMagic in the game as opposed to Josh Rosen. Things could also conceivably get WORSE with Fitzpatrick under center as he’s so high variance. But if he plays poorly, that likely means lots of interceptions, which will set up Buffalo to score more. No matter how Fitzpatrick plays, we like this game to go Over.

The Bills are 4-1 and off their bye. They won’t be overtaking the Patriots in the AFC East, but Buffalo is in a great position for a playoff run. They are the AFC’s only one-loss team (lost to the unbeaten Patriots). While the strength of this team is the defense, don’t be surprised to see the offense score a season-high in points this week. Every Miami opponent besides Washington has scored at least 30 pts on them.  The Bills offense runs the ball pretty well, so they’ll still move the ball when they’re (likely) up big in the 2nd half. The Dolphins have the worst run defense in the NFL. Half of Bills’ QB Josh Allen’s TD passes last year came against Miami! 8* Over Dolphins/Bills

10* Over Browns/49ers (8:15 ET): Fun fact: You would have to go back to the 1980's (or maybe even before that) to find the last time a Browns-49ers matchup went Over the total. Whenever it was, it certainly predates our records. Now, to be fair, these teams don't play very often (one time every four seasons). The fact that they're meeting in 2019 is cool because it's the first time in FOREVER that both teams have a sense of optimism. Cleveland is in off a 40-25 win over Baltimore last week while San Francisco is unbeaten and off its bye week. Back in Week 2, we told you that the 49ers were our pick for most improved team in the league this year (they went out and clobbered Cincinnati 41-17). Monday night, we like that rare Over to take place in a rare intriguing Browns-49ers matchup. 

The Browns' offense had not played particularly well the first three weeks of the season w/ it's "best" effort coming on a Monday night against the wounded Jets. But they still only scored 23 pts in that game. Last week though, Baker Mayfield and company tore through the Ravens defense to the tune of 40 points and 530 total yards. RB Nick Cubb ran wild for 165 yards, a total he probably won't be able to get to against a fairly stout 49ers' run defense. However, Mayfield could very well be in line for a big day here as the 49ers defense largely has NOT been tested through the air. The last two opposing QB's they faced were Andy Dalton & Mason Rudolph. Making matters more problematic is the Niners lost CB Ahkello Witherspoon to a foot injury in the win over the Steelers. Look for Odell Beckham Jr to have a big game as a result. 

After putting up 72 points in the first two games, the 49ers were held to "just" 24 in the win over the Steelers two weeks ago. But that number easily could have been a lot higher had it not been for several miscues in the red zone. Incredibly, the offense turned it over THREE times (all fumbles) inside the Steelers' 20-yard line. They finished the game w/ 436 yds total offense and thankfully still won despite the turnovers, but really they should have won by more. That came after putting up 41 points and 572 total yds on the Bengals. So both offenses are capable of 40+ pts and 500+ yards in a game. The Over has cashed 15 of the last 20 times SF has been coming off a bye. 10* Over Browns/49ers

10* Under Chiefs/Lions (1:00 ET): Kansas City's offense doesn't look like it's missed a beat in year two with Patrick Mahomes as QB. They've scored at least 26 points in every game Mahomes has started in his career. So an Under call might seem a bit risky, but remember we cashed one two weeks ago when they visited Oakland. That game saw Mahomes throw 4 TD passes - all in the second quarter - yet the Under still cashed by a double digit margin as there were no points scored - by the Cheifs or the Raiders - the entire second half! Scoring may be a bit more "evenly distributed" this week in Detroit, but we still feel it won't be enough to go Over. Take the Under. 

The Lions are 2-0-1, the first time they've been unbeaten through three weeks since 2011. Last week, they went to Philadelphia and surprised the Eagles in 27-24 upset as four-point underdogs. Early in the game, they became the 1st team this year to return a kickoff for a TD and ultimately that was the difference between winning and losing as well as the game going Over rather than Under. The Lions' offense was hardly dominant, gaining a season-low 287 total yards. This is not one of the better offenses at running the football, which bodes well for a Chiefs' defense that was gashed on the ground last week by Baltimore. 

The last time these teams combined to go Under was 1988 as the last seven meetings all have gone Over. But this is a really high total for Detroit and even for KC it's the highest to date. The Lions do rank 12th in the league in scoring defense (20.3 PPG allowed) and the Under is 6-0 in their previous six home games. That includes just one this season, but it was a 13-10 win over the Chargers. Mahomes has never played in a dome in his pro career. We don't think the Lions will do much scoring here and we're not sure the Chiefs will hit 30 either. 10* Under Chiefs/Lions

10* Over Bears/Redskins (8:20 ET): The Chicago offense hasn't looked so good in the first two games, scoring all of 19 points. Quite frankly, they are lucky that number isn't 16. Were it, that means the Bears would be coming into Monday night at 0-2. But new kicker Eddie Pineiro booted a 54 yard FG as time expired LW in Denver, giving his team a 16-14 win. Lucky for Chicago, this week they are facing a Redskins' defense that is the proverbial "gift that keeps on giving." Look for QB Mitchell Trubisky and company to have a "breakout" game here, helping this one go Over the total. 

Washington has actually started both of its games well. They were up 17-0 over the Eagles in the 2nd quarter back in Week 1. They also shut out the high-powered Cowboys' offense for a quarter and half last week. But in both games, the defense fell apart in the second half. The Redskins have given up 63 points total and 455 YPG. They are allowing 6.8 yards per play. In the second halves alone, the Skins have allowed 569 total yards. That's almost as many as the Bears' defense has allowed total this year. Again, I expect the Bears offense to wake up from it "early season slumber" here.

You're likely to hear about some trends of when the road team is favored on MNF, the games tend to stay Under. Plus, the Bears' last seven games (dating back to last season) have all stayed Under. When you've got a top defense and a suspect offense (like the Bears do), that's not a surprise. But note Washington QB Case Keenum hasn't been that bad so far, throwing for 601 yards and five touchdowns w/ zero interceptions. The Redskins have averaged 24 PPG against two good teams (Eagles, Cowboys) so far. So don't be surprised if they score more than you think here. The Over is 13-4 in Chicago's L17 road games vs. teams that have a losing home record. 10* Over Bears/Redskins

8* Over Broncos/Packers (1:00 ET): We've seen eight quarters of this Packers' offense and truthfully the results haven't been all that great. They've scored all of four touchdowns, three of them coming in successive drives to open last week's game vs. Minnesota. Yet, here they are at 2-0 SU and leading the NFC North w/ a pair of division wins. Credit for the start can go to the defense, which has done its job in allowing just two touchdowns in two games (and only 19 pts total) while Aaron Rodgers is still learning 1st year HC Matt LaFleur's offense. But this week we're going to look for a bit higher scoring game w/ the Broncos. Take the Over. 

Denver is 0-2, but one thing they have in common w/ the Pack is both games have stayed Under the total. In fact, the Broncos' last 10 games have all stayed Under as have 15 of the last 18. There was some definite skepticism over Joe Flacco's arrival here in the Mile High City, at this stage of his career. But so far Flacco has completed 69% of his passes for 560 yards. That's not bad. It was a brutal loss to the Bears (who the Packers beat in Week 1) last week on a last second 53-yard field goal. Both Broncos' losses this year have technically been by one possession as they fell 24-16 in Oakland back in Week 1. 

Denver may not be a common opponent for Rodgers and the Pack, but they are quite familiar w/ the defensive scheme run by Broncos' 1st year HC Vic Fangio, who previously served as the Bears' defensive coordinator. This Broncos defense simply isn't as good as what Fangio was fielding in the Windy City as they've yet to register a turnover or single sack. As for that Packers defense, which has been labeled as much improved by everyone (including Rodgers himself), it still allowed 7.0 yards per play last week, whch was second most in the league. Many times w/ these 3-game reports, I have a prevailing theme and in every game here we're going Over w/ two teams that have gone Under in each of the first two games. 8* Over Broncos/Packers 

8* Over Raiders/Vikings (1:00 ET): The Raiders never seem to have much success in these 1 PM ET kickoffs and truth be told, we don't anticipate them doing too well this week in Minneapolis, their first road game of 2019. They're off a 28-10 loss to Kansas City, which was a short week (played Monday night in Week 1), but it certainly didn't bother them early as they jumped out to a 10-0 first quarter lead. But from there, they wouldn't score again. The defense gave up four touchdowns in the second quarter, all TD passes by Patrick Mahomes, but no points in the second half. A second half w/ no scoring is quite rare, but we'll take it as we were on the Under! This week though, it's a different story. Take the Over. 

As mentioned in the Broncos/Packers writeup, the Minnesota offense averaged a whopping 7.0 yards per play last week. But unfortunately, they still lost, 21-16. Scoring only 16 points while gaining 7.0 YPP is just about as rare as no points being scored in the entire second half of a NFL game. In the Vikings' case, much of the blame for last week's loss can be placed on Kirk Cousins, who threw a terrible 4th quarter INT in the end zone (had no business making that pass). There were four Vikings' turnovers overall last week, not to mention a missed field goal. Clean up some of those mistakes, which shouldn't be hard to do against the Raiders, and you'll have a more productive offense this week. 

Again, the common theme in this three-pack is going Over with two teams that have gone Under in both games. We've got a low total in all three of the games. The Raiders' defense gave up 443 yards passing last week. That was against Mahomes, but Cousins is certainly capable of having a productive day himself. The Vikings' offense scored 28 points here at home in the opener. The way the defense gave up touchdowns on three straight drives to open LW's game in Green Bay was concerning though. The Raiders' offense almost always gets off to a good start and that should be enough to help this one go Over. 8* Over Raiders/Vikings

8* Over Jets/Patriots (1:00 ET): So the Antonio Brown era in New England didn't last long as the troubled receiver was cut after just two weeks and one game. Call me crazy, but the Patriots probably won't miss him. Through two games, they haven't allowed a touchdown and have outscored their first two opponents 76-3. A matchup here w/ the Jets, who are on a short week and down to a second-year, third-string QB, all but guarantees they'll be 3-0 after this week. But with a historically large pointspread, it's not like laying the number is an option here. Instead, we'll go Over the total. 

With Sam Darnold (mono) and Trevor Simien (torn ankle ligaments) both out, Luke Falk is now the man in charge of the Jets' offense now. This is an ominous sign seeing as Falk was on the practice squad last week. He'll be looking to replicate what fellow Washington State alum Gardner Minshew has done w/ Jacksonville. Facing this Patriots' defense, it's tough to like Falk's chances, but stranger things have happened. Unlike when he was "thrown to the wolves" against the Browns Monday night, Falk will at least have had reps w/ the first team offense in practice. Falk does rank 8th all-time in passing yards in NCAA history. 

The Patriots' 43-0 annihilation of Miami last week included two defensive touchdowns and one from Brown, who is now gone. But they'll still find other ways to score this week. Remember they gained 465 total yds in the opening week win over the Steelers. The historically bad Dolphins could hardly muster anything against the Patriots defense last week, but the Pats are 5-1 Over after allowing less than 250 total yards their previous game. The Under is 6-0 the L6 meetings in this AFC East rivalry, but this number has come down too far for that trend to continue. 8* Over Jets/Patriots

10* Under Lions/Eagles (1:00 ET): Things have grown so dire on the injury front for the Eagles that HC Doug Pederson had no choice but to cancel practice Wednesday and do a walkthrough instead. We know that the offense will be w/o WR DeSean Jackson Sunday, a big loss. Fellow starting wideout Alshon Jeffrey and TE Dallas Goedert are both dealing w/ calf strains and may miss this game as well. That leaves the likes of Nelson Agholor (who has never lived up to expectations), JJ Arcega-Whiteside and Mack Hollins as the potential top options for Carson Wentz. That's hardly attractive. We still like the Eagles this year, but they're going to struggle to score points right now. 

The Eagles did put 20 points on the board last week in Atlanta, but gained fewer than 300 total yards for the game and just 4.0 yds per play. Here they run into a Detroit defense that's playing well for 2nd year HC Matt Patricia. Last week, the Lions held the Chargers to 10 points, though it helped that LA missed a couple of field goals. But they were also better than the box score showed in Week 1 vs. Arizona. That's a game where they gassed late and allowed 21 pts in the 4Q/OT and wound up w/ a tie. But they allowed just 4.7 YPP in that game. This will be the second week in a row they get to face a banged up offense. 

Remember that the Eagles got off to a slow start in Week 1 vs. Washington. Eventually, the offense got on track, but that's when they were healthier and facing an atrocious Redskins' defense (wound up winning 32-27). Since the start of last year, Philly has scored a league-low 41 pts in the first quarter. Eight of the Lions' last nine games have stayed Under the total, the exception being the Week 1 tie w/ Arizona. The last seven times they've played the Eagles, the game has gone Over. So something has to give here. With the Eagles' injury issues, we should expect a lower-scoring than usual effort from them. The Lions have managed just 40 points this season despite playing an extra 10 mins of football. 10* Under Lions/Eagles

10* Over Bears/Broncos (4:25 ET): We're going Over on the lowest total on the board Sunday. Certainly, it would appear as if Chicago has a significant edge heading into this Week 2 matchup as they've had FOUR extra days to prepare. But, like Denver, they're also off a loss and it was an ugly offensive effort to boot. They scored only three points in an Opening Night loss to rival Green Bay, which was at home. The Broncos weren't much flashier offensively in a 24-16 loss to the Raiders Monday night. Despite each team's history of Unders, we're going Over here as trends are (sometimes) made to be broken. 

Chicago has gone Under in its last six games dating back to last year. The jury is still out on QB Mitchell Trubisky, who didn't play well at against the Packers in Week 1. He surprisingly threw 45 times, completing only 26 for 228 yards. There's still reason to believe in HC Matt Nagy though. He was brought in for his offensive mind and I suspect we'll be seeing the Bears run the ball a lot more in Week 2. That said, it's not a bad idea for Trubisky to air it out when necessary against a Denver defense that just allowed an 84.6 completion rate to Derek Carr. Remember that Nagy & the Bears offense will be quite familiar w/ the Denver defensive schemes as their former DC Vic Fangio is now the Broncos head coach. 

Since the start of last season, Denver has gone 14-3 Under in all of its games. The Under is 10-0 the L10 games. However, while it's a long-term trend, the Broncos are 21-8 Over the week after playing Monday night. A big part of the reason they lost to the Raiders in Week 1 was red zone inefficiency. They kicked three field goals, two of them just 26 yarders and the other a curious decision when down 15 in the 4Q. Chicago's defense was as good as any in the league last year, but we see them slipping a bit w/ Fangio now in Denver. Look for this game to sneak Over the total. 10* Over Bears/Broncos

8* Under Chiefs/Raiders (4:05 ET): Well, the Kansas City offense showed no signs of slowing down from a record-setting 2018 campaign. In Week 1, they hung 40 points on a Jaguars defense that remains well-regarded. That was the sixth time since the start of last year that they'd done so. (Interestingly enough, the Chiefs LOST two of those games). There were only four games LY where they failed to score at least 30 and the fewest pts scored in any game was 26, ironically against a bad Arizona team. This week, the Chiefs play in Oakland against a Raiders team that's feeling pretty good about itself after a win Monday night. However, this total is too high (highest on the board) and we're going Under. 

Though they won rather handily, it wasn't all good news in Week 1 for the Chiefs. Speedster Tyreek Hill was lost to an injury. Even though Sammy Watkins had 198 yards receiving and three touchdowns last week, that kind of production simply cannot be counted on every week, especially from a player like Watkins. Slowing down this KC offense is easier said than done, but we do believe ultimately it will prove too difficult for them to match LY's record-setting producton. Over the L21 years, the Chiefs have gone Under 15 times in Week 2. 

Oakland averaged just over 18 PPG each of the last two seasons, but went for 24 last week vs. Denver. A short week is hardly ideal when facing one of the league's better teams and numerous trends point to a lower-scoring effort this week from the Raiders. They are 6-1-1 Under following a SU win and 5-0-1 Under following a game in which they had 250+ yards passing. Derek Carr completed almost 85% of his pass attempts against the Broncos. Even w/ my reservations about the Chiefs defense, Carr is unlikely to replicate that number this week. It's a divisional game, so there's familiarity with the respective schemes of each side (no coaching changes here). Look for the Chiefs' offense to "take a week off" (by their high-scoring standard) and the Raiders not to be that effective moving the ball compared to MNF. 8* Under Chiefs/Raiders

10* Over Broncos/Raiders (10:20 ET): Well, we know what the story going into this game will be. One of the oddest sagas in recent NFL history ended Saturday w/ the Raiders releasing WR Antonio Brown before he even got to play a regular season game for them. Truth be told, Jon Gruden's return here to Oakland has been rocky at best. With Brown, the Raiders are a team we expected to improve (some) in 2019 and the same holds true for their Week 1 opponent, Denver. The Broncos have a new QB, or rather an old one in Joe Flacco, who comes over after leaving Baltimore. It's a really low total Monday night and you should look for the game to go Over the total. 

Looking at team-by-team OU records from LY, none really stand out except one. Denver stayed Under in 13 of 16 games. They only averaged 20.6 points per game, but only gave up 21.8. They actually played better than you realize in the sense that they were only outscored by 20 pts over the course of the season and were 6-6 through 12 games. Flacco is clearly not a long-term solution at QB, nor are we even sure he's a good option in the present, but the Broncos should easily score in this game against an Oakland defense that gave up the most points in the league last year. Denver has gone Over in eight of its last nine season openers. 

With Brown gone, how will the Raiders score points? Well, it starts w/ Derek Carr, who three years ago guided this offense to a respectable 25.3 PPG. The Silver and Black have been down to 18.8 and 18.1 PPG the last two seasons and those are simply unacceptable numbers. The Raiders do have a lot of new starters on offense even w/ Brown gone and a suspect line is going to have to do a better job at protecting Carr. But look for the Raiders to score more than you think Monday night. The same holds true for Denver. Again, this is a low number. Take the Over. 10* Over Broncos/Raiders

10* Over Packers/Bears (8:25 ET): Going into last year, I predicted that Chicago would be one of the more improved teams in the league. Little did I know just HOW improved they'd end up being. The Bears rode of the league's top defenses to 12-4 SU and the NFC North title while 1st year HC Matt Nagy also retooled the offense. They ended up being one and done in the playoffs, losing at home to Philadelphia on the infamous Cody Parkey missed kick. For 2019, I do not think the Bears will match LY's win total, but do expect they'll still contend for the playoffs. 

When the Packers fell to 7-9 SU in 2017, they had the built-in excuse of an Aaron Rodgers injury. But w/ a full season of Rodgers, the Pack shockingly won one fewer game in 2018. Mike McCarthy was finally shown the door and in steps Matt LaFleur, who will be tasked with squeezing the most out of the team w/ Rodgers still in his prime. I do think Green Bay will be better this year. In fact, they're my call to win the division. That doesn't mean I'm picking them to win here in Chicago though. One thing is for certain - after blowing a huge lead to Green Bay in Week 1 last year, the Bears will come out motivated at home. 

Four of the last five meetings between these rivals have gone Over the number. The one that didn't was the most recent, a 24-17 victory by the Bears that snapped a five-game losing streak in the rivalry. The Bears scored 23 and 24 in the two games last year and I think the offense should continue to improve under Nagy. I do not think the defense will be able to match LY's numbers. Specfically, a +12 turnover margin. The Bears also lost DC Vic Fangio. Free from the shackles of McCarthy, expect Rodgers to excel. He threw only TWO INT's LY despite 450+ attempts. Unfortunately, I'm not sold on the Packers' defense. The Pack have gone Over in 7 of their last 8 regular season openers and 37 of their L55 road games. 10* Over Packers/Bears

10* Under Patriots/Chiefs (6:40 ET): Kansas City has some distinct advantages getting this game at home. First off, they don't have to play on Foxboro. New England won all nine of its home games this year and did so while averaging 33.8 PPG. On the road, the Pats' scoring average drops to 21.6 PPG. Three of their five non-division road games produced 10-point efforts (losses to Detroit, Tennessee and Pittsburgh). Kansas City's defense has been maligned much of this year, but they actually perform quite well at home where they give up only 17.4 PPG. With the dropoff in scoring New England sees on the road and the increase in defensive prowess from the Chiefs, the Under is an easy call for me this week. Plus, Kansas City actually averages fewer points per game at home than on the road! (Update: it also looks like they're getting Eric Berry this week!).

Last week of course, the Over in the Patriots' game was my *10* Total of the Year. But that was in Foxboro. Everything that could go right for them in the first half did. They took advantage of a terrible Chargers' defensive gameplan and scored 35 points by halftime. The majority of points they gave up came in "garbage time" w/ the result of the game in little to no doubt. The Chargers gained more than two-thirds of their total yardage in the final quarter and a half when the Patriots were already ahead 38-7. Though often labeled as a "bend but don't break" type outfit (even by me!), we probably should give Belichick's defense more credit. There are multiple instances of games like last week's artificially inflating the number of yards they allow. This unit finished tied for 6th in the league in scoring during the regular season, giving up just 20.3 PPG. 

Kansas City's defense was able to wrest some of the headlines away from its record-setting offense w/ a truly dominant performance last week against the Colts. Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis offense had been on a real roll going into that game, but the Chiefs limited them to basically nothing in the first half. The Colts' lone TD came w/ just over five minutes remaining in the game (scored on a blocked punt in 1st half). They went three-and-out on three of the first four possessions and had just 12 total yds at the end of the first quarter. I should conclude by talking about the weather for this game as it is expected to be downright frigid. Sometimes that's "much ado about nothing," but this O/U line is high. Given the final score of the regular season meeting between the two (43-40 Pats), that's understandable, but I expect a much different results at Arrowhead where games average "only" 49.6 PPG. 10* Under Patriots/Chiefs

10* Over Chargers/Patriots (1:05 ET): Points were not plentiful on Wild Card Weekend and that includes the Chargers' 23-17 win over the Ravens. From the Chargers' perspective, that game probably shouldn't have ended up so close as they were gifted a couple early turnovers and had a couple of long returns from the special teams. Yet three different times they started on the Baltimore side of the field and could only manage field goals. Their defense largely dominated Lamar Jackson early, using a creative scheme, but let the Ravens back in late w/ a couple of long 4Q TD drives. I have every reason to believe we're going to get a much higher scoring game this weekend and the Over on Chargers-Patriots is my top Playoff Total of the Year! 

It's a much different QB and offense that Los Angeles will have to defend this week as they face Tom Brady and a Patriots team that averages 32.9 PPG at home. Last week, partly due to being short on linebackers, the Chargers went w/ 7 DB's on all but one snap. This clearly confused Lamar Jackson, who really never got going running the ball, and the Chargers' D-line dominated the game. Such an approach probably won't be used against Brady, nor would it be successful. For starters, New England has had an extra week to prepare. Secondly, this is not the run heavy offense that Baltimore employs. That's not to say the Chargers' defense won't find success in this game. It's just that it will have to come in a different way. Plus, like I said earlier, the Pats are averaging 32.9 PPG here in Foxboro. 

I played the Over in New England's final regular season game. It ended up coming up just short due to their opponents (Jets) red zone inefficiencies. Twice the Jets had the ball insider the Patriots' 10-yard line and turned it over on downs. That was the difference in the 38-3 final staying Under the 46.5-point total. The Chargers, despite last week's performance, are far less likely to bog down in the red zone. They average an impressive 6.4 yards per play, a number topped only by the offenses of the Chiefs and Rams. New England's defense may be 7th in scoring (20.3 PPG allowed), but that's a little misleading in the sense that they also rank 21st in yards per game (359.1), so it's a real "bend but don't break" unit. Both offenses are in the top six in the league in scoring here and this total is too low. 10* Over Chargers/Patriots

8* Over Cowboys/Giants (1:00 ET): There's not a lot on the line in these 1 PM ET kickoffs Sunday, so I'm pretty much confined to looking at totals. In the case of this NFC East rivalry, the Over has cashed five times in a row, a stark contrast to the streak of seven straight Overs before that. Dallas has clinched the NFC East and knows it will be the #4 seed (in all likelihood hosting Seattle in the Wild Card Round) so it will probably choose not to play its starters very long, if at all. The Giants are having another playoff year and without one of their top two offensive weapons (Odell Beckham Jr). But they still have Saquon Barkley and this could very well be the last ever home start Eli Manning makes in a Giants uniform. I think he (Eli) in particularly will look to go out w/ a bang. 

With the uncertainly over how much Dallas starters will play, this total is low. But HC Jason Garrett has given no indication that he plans on resting his key players, even QB Dak Prescott, RB Ezekiel Elliott or WR Amari Cooper. There is an argument that the team would not want to lose any momentum heading into the playoffs after winning six of their last seven games. Two weeks ago, they were shutout in Indianapolis, but last week bounced back w/ a 27-20 win over Tampa Bay. Elliott, in particular, has said he wants to play. I realize that the Cowboys' defense has played exceptionally well this season, but they've also given up at least 20 points each of the L3 weeks.

Manning is going to want to put on a show here, in case it is his last home game as the starting QB of the Giants. Last week, the G-Men put up 27 points on the same Colts defense that shutout Dallas. I had them as big underdogs and they led outright most of the way before giving up the GW TD in the final minute. The Giants have now scored at least 27 pts in regulation in five of the last seven games, three of those coming w/o OBJ. The defense also allowed over 400 total yards last week. With nothing tangible to gain for either side, don't be surprised to see a more "wide open" game here, certainly more so than what we saw in the Week 2 meeting, which was a 20-13 Cowboys victory. 8* Over Cowboys/Giants

8* Over Jets/Patriots (1:00 ET): New England has something to play for here, namely a 1st round bye in the playoffs. They've already clinched the AFC East for a 10th straight year, but an older team like this one would probably relish the opportunity to have next week off. Fortunately for the Patriots, they're at home this week and hosting the Jets. Just how important would a bye be to the Patriots? Well, they're the league's only unbeaten team at home (7-0) and they average an impressive 32.1 PPG in Foxboro. That number is well up from how much they average on the road (21.6 PPG) where they're only 3-5 SU. The last five meetings w/ the Jets have all resulted in Unders, but I feel New England drags this one Over by themselves if they have to. 

The Jets are perceived as a "tough out" for the Patriots, but they've only beaten them once since 2013. That was in Week 16 of the 2015 season, Todd Bowles first year as the HC here. Barring something unforeseen happening, this will be Bowles last game coaching the Jets. The team has lost 11+ games in each of the last three seasons and clearly needs new direction w/ Sam Darnold as the QB. Speaking of Darnold, he actually owns the league's highest QBR the L3 weeks. The Jets have gone Over in four straight games, averaging over 27 PPG. Last week, they lost a 44-38 shootout in overtime against Green Bay. I don't see the Jets simply "rolling over" and giving this game to the Patriots. They should have a decent offensive gameplan. 

The Under is 7-1 in the Patriots' last eight games, the one exception being that wild loss in Miami where the Dolphins lateraled their way to victory. One of the Under was against these Jets in a 27-13 victory. But I expect New England to top 30 in this one being that they are at home. Last week saw them finish w/ just 24 points against Buffalo, but that was also with a run-heavy approach in the second half simply designed to kill clock. Plus, say what you will about the Bills, but they actually have a very competent defense. The same cannot be said for the Jets, who give up almost 27 PPG and allowed 540 total yds to Aaron Rodgers last week. 8* Over Jets/Patriots

analysis soon

10* Over Broncos/Raiders (8:15 ET): Nothing will be on the line Monday night (X-mas Eve) except pride in the AFC West as these two longstanding rivals meet for the second time in 2018. Neither the Broncos nor Raiders made the playoffs LY and both are already out of contention for this season. For Oakland, they've been out of contention for some time as Jon Gruden's first year back at the helm has not gone well, to say the least. The Silver and Black are 3-11 SU and have become a total rebuilding project, although one now has to wonder exactly WHERE that rebuilding might take place. Tonight could be the final NFL game EVER in Oakland as the team's immediate future is in serious turmoil w/ the city suing the team over its decision to bolt for Las Vegas. Spirits could be high in the stadium Monday night and will have little to do w/ the holidays. 

Denver at least improved some this season. They, in fact, were even in serious playoff contention up until two weeks ago. But B2B losses to the 49ers and Browns (were favored in both games) have them at 6-8 SU. This is a team that last month beat the Chargers and Steelers in successive games. So it's no surprise that they're favored again this week, especially considering they beat the Raiders all the way back in Week 2, 20-19. That game saw the Broncos rally back from a 12-point deficit. They did not cover though as 5.5-pt chalk. If you're looking for a storyline from the Denver side going into this game - HC Vance Joseph's future is (and should be) very much in doubt. 

The Broncos stumbling each of the L2 wks can probably be tied to the fact they lost a key player on both sides of the ball - WR Emmanuel Sanders and CB Chris Harris, Jr. The defense has remained fine, but the offense has scored a grand total of just 30 pts. The Broncos' last six games have all stayed Under as have their L4 meetings w/ the Raiders. Oakland has the 4th lowest scoring offense in the league. But despite all that you've just read, I believe this MNF total is too low and we're going to see more of a shootout between two teams that have little (but pride) to play for. There have been only three Denver games this year w/ a total of 43 pts or less and the Over is 3-0 (Under is 11-0 in all other games!). The Raiders' defense gives up almost 30 PPG and the Over is 2-0 when the total is 43 pts or lower in their games this season. 10* Over Broncos/Raiders

10* Over Bucs/Cowboys (1:00 ET): Before the season started, Tampa Bay is a team whose games I projected to be among the highest scoring in the league this year. I saw plenty of potential with the offense - no matter who the QB was - while the defense looked pretty suspect. For the first half of the season, high scoring is precisely how Bucs games played out. The first five games, and seven of the first eight, went Over the total. It didn't matter if it was Jameis Winston or Fitzmagic at QB. But something has changed over the last month. The offense has kind of gone into the toilet and the L4 games have all stayed Under the total. But the defense remains pretty bad, particularly on the road. This week, they're facing an offense that can absolutely exploit them. Take the Over here.

Now, when I say the Bucs are facing an offense that can exploit them, you wouldn't guess the Cowboys based on their performance LW. For the first time since '03, they were shutout as in 23-0 by the Colts. It was a shocking result for a Dallas team that came into that game riding a 5-game SU and ATS win streak. The offense had been pretty much rolling behind QB Dak Prescott, particularly since WR Amari Cooper came on board. RB Ezekiel Elliott (leads NFL in rush yds) was doing his usual damage as well. But the Colts defense held them scoreless to less than 300 total yards. One thing to consider, however, is that the Indy D plays a lot of zone. The Prescott-Cooper combination had largely been excelling against man to man looks. 

Definitely look for the Dallas offense to bounce back this week. Tampa Bay allows a frightening 37.0 PPG on the road this season, which is why they're 1-6 SU in such games. They are also still 28th in YPG allowed. This Bucs' defense plays a lot of man to man as well, so we should see more favorable matchups for Cooper in the Cowboys passing game. While a TB offense that has scored just 26 total pts the L2 wks is going up against a tough Dallas defense, they do get back WR Desean Jackson this week. Note that the Over is 13-3 in the Bucs' last 16 road games and 5-1 in the Cowboys' past six home games. 10* Over Bucs/Cowboys

10* Under Titans/Giants (1:00 ET): Titans' games have generally been low-scoring this year, but the Over is a perfect 3-0 the L3 weeks. Last Thursday, they beat Jacksonville 30-9. That's a low-scoring game, but the total closed at 36.5, which is very low by 2018 standards. In fact, each of the L3 wks have seen low totals for Titans games. Against the Jets, they came from behind to win 26-22 (total was 43.5) and that was a game where they allowed an early defensive TD. Despite the recent rash of Overs, the Titans neither score nor allow 20 PPG. The total is a bit higher this week & I'm on the Under.

The Giants' offense has also come alive recently. They've scored 30 or more in three of the last four games after only topping that threshold once in their previous 42 games! Having RB Saquon Barkley definitely helps, but so too did facing the horrific Bucs defense as well as a Redskins team that has been absolutely besieged by injuries. Eli Manning is still washed up in my opinion (B2B wks w/ less than 200 pass yds) and it's very likely that Odell Beckham Jr doesn't play against this week. Facing a superior defense in the Titans, I look for the Giants to also have a downturn on offense this week.

Tennessee lost its starting TE and a right tackle last week. This is an offense that averages a scant 16.4 PPG on the road. That's the fourth lowest such average in the league, ahead of only the Bills, Raiders and Cardinals. The only other time this year that the Titans scored 30+, they came back the following week and scored only 10 (on the road). They've topped 17 pts only once in the L5 road games. Meanwhile, the G-men actually average fewer PPG at home than they do on the road. The Under is 9-1 in their last 10 tries off a SU win by 14+ points. The Titans allow only 19.5 PPG. 10* Under Titans/Giants

10* Under Vikings/Seahawks (8:15 ET): These teams have not met since the infamous 10-9 Seattle playoff win in 2016 (Blair Walsh game). It should be a "playoff-like atmosphere" Monday night in the Pacific Northwest with both the Vikings and Seahawks looking to get back to the postseason. Seattle is a hot team right now. They've won three straight to get to 7-5 SU and while winning the division is no longer a possibility (Rams have already clinched), the Wild Card is looking more and more like a distinct possibility. Minnesota is in a slightly more precarious position at 6-5-1 SU. This is the second leg of a pretty brutal set of back to back road games. Last week they were in New England, now they have to go cross-country to one of the more challenging venues in the league. 

The Over has hit in each of Seattle's last four games. They scored a ton of points last week, but that was a little misleading as the offense gained just 331 total yards. Believe it or not, they were actually outgained (-119) by the 49ers in the 43-16 win. The key was forcing three turnovers, one of them a late "pick-six." Not saying that the result was likely to be any different, but the Seahawks also scored on a number of "short" drives (had a 20-yd TD drive). As good as Russell Wilson is, Seattle's passing attack isn't exactly lighting it up of late. Four of the last five games have seen them finish w/ 205 or less passing yards. Wilson only attempted 17 passes last week, completing 11. This is an offense that likes to run the ball, which means fewer possessions and a running clock.

There's been some hand-wringing over Seattle's secondary recently as they let a backup QB (Nick Mullens) throw for 400+ yards last week. But despite allowing a high completion percentage, they're not giving up "the big play." Considering the loss of the famed "Legion of Boom," I think this group has performed just fine this season. I think tonight's game is going to be emblematic of what we've seen from the Seattle secondary recently. Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins is completing a career-high 71% of his pass attempts this year, but only at 6.7 yds per attempt. Cousins will get his completions in this game, but they'll do minimal damage. The Vikings offense has been held to an average of 18.0 PPG the L3 wks and has not gone over 24 in any of the L5 games. 10* Under Vikings/Seahawks

10* Under Eagles/Cowboys (4:25 ET): These NFC East rivals met four weeks ago w/ the Cowboys winning 27-20 as 7.5-pt road dogs. That result signaled a clear change in the direction of the division. Dallas hasn't lost since (4-0 SU/ATS L4 games) and is now in first place at 7-5 SU. The Eagles seemed dead & buried after taking a humiliating 48-7 loss down in New Orleans (worst loss EVER by a reigning SB champ), but they've now bounced back w/ B2B wins and covers. They're just a game back at 6-6 SU, so there's really no downplaying just how important this game really is. I look for a tight, low-scoring affair and am on the Under. 

Philly has seen the Under cash in five of its last six games. The exception was vs. the Cowboys, a game where they both gained and allowed 400+ total yards. The team looks a lot better right now, on both sides of the ball, particularly the offense w/ RB Darren Sproles back and WR Golden Tate in the fold. But this will be just the second "true" road game (excludes London) for the Eagles since October 11th. The other one was against the Saints when they were held to just seven points. This is an offense averaging only 21.5 PPG on the year. They're facing one of the top defenses this week, so don't be surprised if Carson Wentz and company really struggle in this one. 

The Dallas defense is legit. They allow only 18.6 PPG and just held the high-powered Saints to only 10 in this building last Thursday. The Saints failed to gain even 200 total yards in that TNF upset. At the same time, the Cowboys hardly have the most explosive offense. They scored only 13 pts vs. New Orleans and have been held below 20 in three of the last six games. On average, Cowboys' games are among the lowest scoring in the entire league, seeing just 39.2 points per contest. Only the Titans and Jaguars (who played Thursday night) are involved in lower scoring games, on average. The Under is 15-6 in Dallas' last 21 games overall. 10* Under Eagles/Cowboys

analysis soon

10* Under Jaguars/Titans (8:20 ET): These AFC South rivals are similar in that both are capable of playing outstanding defense while at the same time being pretty inept offensively. Even in a 26-22 affair last week, the unheralded Titans' defense played well. The Jets were spotted an early 16-0 lead in that one and while it will be Marcus Mariota and the offense that will get the credit, it was really the defense that deserves most of the credit for that come from behind victory. Note the Jets' only TD came from the defense, off a Mariota INT. From there, the Titans allowed only five FG's (one on a negative yardage drive) and 280 total yds. Of course, Jacksonville was involved in the lowest scoring game of this NFL season last week, a 6-0 win over the Colts.

That was quite the defensive performance from the Jags, who were the first team ever to shutout Andrew Luck. Luck and the Colts offense came in red hot too; 4th in the league in scoring while averaging 34.6 PPG during a five-game win streak. Of course, it almost went for naught as the Cody Kessler "led" offense produced very little - just two field goals and 211 total yds. Kessler threw for only 150 yards in earning his first ever win as a NFL starter. Excluding a kneel down at the end of the 1st half, the Jags' other 10 drives resulted in two field goals, seven punts and a fumble. I wouldn't expect much more this week from Kessler, whose only other starting experience as a pro came w/ a Cleveland team that went 1-15 SU in 2016. This is a Jags offense that has been held to single digits four times this year. Even w/ RB Fournette back, they just aren't capable of much.

One of those times was in a 9-6 loss to Tennessee back in Week 3. Looking back, that loss begat the team's eventual 2018 downfall. Last week was just the second win in the L10 games. Considering what went down in the season's first meeting (w/ Blake Bortles starting instead of Kessler), I don't see a Titans defense that permits just 20.4 PPG, having any difficulty stopping Jacksonville again. At home, the Titans are even stingier, giving up just 18.6 PPG. In terms of offense, we're dealing w/ two of the lowest scoring teams in the league here as Tennessee ranks 28th in PPG (18.4) while Jacksonville is 30th (16.9). Neither offense had more than 250 total yds in the first meeting. 10* Under Jaguars/Titans

10* Under Broncos/Bengals (1:00 ET): Something is going to have to give here as Denver has gone Under in four straight games while Cincinnati has gone Over in its last four. While many are ready to "tout" the Broncos as a "sleeper" playoff team, I though last week's 24-17 upset of Pittsburgh (at home) was highly misleading when you consider they were +4 in turnover margin and also gave up 500+ yards. That latter number is concerning, but instead of facing a Ben Roethlisberger-led Steelers offense, this week it will be a Bengals offense quarterbacked by backup Jeff Driskell. That's a much better matchup for a defense that has allowed 22 pts or fewer four of the last five games to begin with ... and the only exception in that five-game stretch was Kansas City!

Cincinnati may have the worst defense in the entire league right now. They have given up the most yards and the most points, so the point seems rather inarguable. Last week, they made rookie QB Baker Mayfield look like a multi-time Pro Bowler in giving up 35 points to the Browns in less than 20 minutes. This Bengals defense has been absolutely shredded over the last month or so, but be aware they've had to face some of the league's top offenses: Kansas City, New Orleans and even Tampa Bay (who is #1 in yards per game). The performance last week was terrible, but note they shut the Browns out for almost the entire second half. Since a Week 1 victory over the Seahawks, the Denver offense has gone over 24 pts in only one game and that was against lowly Arizona.

The Bengals get WR A.J. Green back this week, but any positive that would normally bring is mitigated by the fact QB Andy Dalton is out. Like I said earlier, Denver's defense has allowed 22 pts or less in four of its last five games. The Broncos' offense, which as alluded to above isn't that great to begin with, has been held to 16 pts or less in two of its three early (1 PM ET) Sunday games this year. (The team is 0-3 SU in such games). I look for this to be a surprisingly low-scoring game as the Bengals have a backup QB and the Denver offense has failed to top 325 yards in B2B weeks. 10* Under Broncos/Bengals

8* Minnesota (8:20 ET): One of these teams is going to lose in primetime for a second straight week. For the Vikings, it would be a second straight Sunday night loss as they fell in this same spot to the Bears last week. Green Bay lost last Thursday up in Seattle, a game they actually led most of the way. Of course, the teams could always tie here like they did in Week 2. Though the final score was 29-29 at Lambeau back in September, I don't think there was any doubt as to which team was better. Minnesota had a 480-351 edge in total yardage and outgained the Pack 7.2 to 5.0 on a per play basis. Yes, Packers fans will argue that the late roughing the passer call on Clay Matthews was bogus (and it was). But the Vikings missed two field goals in overtime and were the better team that day. They've also been the slightly better team all season. 

I really haven't been too impressed with the Packers this season. Their only two wins by more than a field came against the Dolphins and Bills, both at home. The other two wins, over Chicago and San Francisco, both required comebacks of the more improbable variety. They have not won a road game this season, now 0-5 SU and giving up 29.8 PPG. They haven't beaten the Vikings in the last two season, though they were w/o Aaron Rodgers for 1.5 games last year. With three tough road losses occurring over the last four weeks, this is a bad spot for a team that doesn't profile as much better than mediocre. 

Vikings QB Kirk Cousins is now 4-12 SU all-time in primetime games after LW's 25-20 loss in Chicago. But as you know, primetime games usually involve top teams. Minnesota's three losses this year have been to the Rams, Saints and Bears, the top three teams in the NFC, all in primetime. Cousins' poor record in these "big games" figures to be the prevailing narrative heading into this one. But Green Bay simply is not at the level of those aforementioned teams. I think that the Vikings should be favored by more than a field goal here as I view them as the better team. Their defense is stronger at home where it yields only 19.8 PPG. Green Bay's offense averages only 21.6 PPG on the road. 8* Minnesota

10* Under Giants/Eagles (1:00 ET): The Eagles looked positively inept last week in losing 48-7 to the Saints. Sure, they are really beat up in the secondary right now and while there's never a "good time" to face the Saints, turns out that doing so w/o your 3-5 best players on the backend is not ideal. Still, that's no excuse for Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense to manage only 7 points and less than 300 total yards in a building that's certainly seen the visitor score plenty through the years. My guess is that the Eagles' defense is going to be a lot better this week, at home and not facing the Saints. This defense has consistently been better at home since the start of last season. The home vs. road splits are pretty striking as at home they're allowing only 19.8 PPG as opposed to 26.4 on the road. 

The Giants scored 38 points last week and that's about as common as a blue moon. But Big Blue was facing one of the worst defenses in the entire league as Tampa Bay is 28th in yards allowed and 32nd (last) in scoring. To sa, there should be a Giants' decline this week, at least offensively, is putting it mildly. It was actually the second time this year that the G-Men scored 31 or more, but they've also been held to 18 pts or fewer in half of their games plus just 20 in one more. QB Eli Manning is over the hill, so it matters little that he had Odell Beckham and Saquon Barkley a his disposal. Before scoring 31 in a losing effort at Carolina last month, this Giants offense had gone 37 consecutive games, almost 2 1/2 seasons, without scoring 30 pts. 

These teams already played once, in New Jersey obviously, and the Eagles rolled to a 34-13 victory. They jumped on the Giants early w/ two quick touchdowns on short fields, one off a turnover and the other coming on a long punt return. The secondary issue still remains for Philly as they could be without their top FIVE cornerbacks. But Manning has not thrown for many yards his last two games despite a high completion percentage. If the GIANTS' defense can hold Wentz and company in check, then there's no doubt in my mind that this turns into a low-scoring game. The last six meetings have all found a way to go Over the total, but this is the one that bucks the trend. The Under is 4-1 in Eagles home games this year. 10* Under Giants/Eagles

10* Under Panthers/Steelers (8:15 ET): Finally, a good Thursday night game! Carolina has won three in a row and five out of six to get to 6-2 SU on the year. Pittsburgh has won and covered four straight to get to 5-2-1 SU. If you're a regular client of mine, then you might recall I had the Over on Carolina's game last week vs. Tampa Bay. That game went Over (a high total) by the third quarter. But it was also at home where the team is a perfect 5-0 SU and averaging 31.6 points per game. On the road, the Panthers have a losing record (1-2 SU) and are averaging just 20.7 PPG. So I don't expect an offensive repeat from them this week in Pittsburgh where they'll find a Steelers team that has not allowed more than 21 points in any game during its own win streak. Take the Under. 

Carolina has one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league. They've run the ball 31 or more times in five games. Not surprisingly, two of the three exceptions were losses. The problem w/ such an approach here is that Pittsburgh has not allowed 100 yds rushing since Week 2. They've allowed less than 75 yds rushing in five of the past six games. The result of that is the Steelers now rank 6th in the league at stopping the run. Carolina would face even more problems if it's true C Ryan Kalil can't go. This being a short week obviously makes it less likely than Kalil will play. 

The Steelers will also be up against a top 10 rush defense and obviously still don't have Le'Veon Bell. Carolina has allowed 101 yds rushing or less in all but two games. Ben Roethlisberger and company have averaged 31.25 PPG during the four-game win streak, but I would be shocked if they hit that benchmark here. They scored just 23 pts last week, granted against Baltimore, but Carolina scored 36 pts on that same defense the week prior. For the record, Pittsburgh is 17-8 Under when off an ATS win. Note that prior to last week, there had not been a total above 50 points for any Carolina game this season. 10* Under Panthers/Steelers

10* Over Titans/Cowboys (8:15 ET): We've got a really low total here on MNF, probably one of the lowest for any games this NFL season. Judging by the amount of scoring we've seen league-wide in 2018, I think it's far too risky to bet this game Under. Too much can happen in a game, whether it be a defensive or special teams touchdown. Both Tennessee and Dallas are off their bye weeks, so both offenses have had plenty of time to gameplan here. The "hype" for this game will surround WR Amari Cooper making his Cowboys debut (recently traded from the Raiders). While I don't think Cooper's impact will be substantial, his presence can only help a Dallas receiving corps - that on paper - was among the very worst in the league. Meanwhile, a Titans' offense averaging only 15.1 PPG (30th) has to start improving, right? Take the Over.

Even though Dallas is thought to be pretty deficient through the air, I believe this Tennessee defense can be had. Two weeks ago against the Chargers, the Titans surrendered pass plays of 75 and 55 yards. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott, not really thought of as a great downfield thrower, does have seven pass plays of 20+ yards already this season. Cooper will draw attention from the Titans' secondary, potentially opening up chances for the other Cowboys' receivers to make plays. You then, of course, have the Dallas run game w/ Ezekiel Elliott. Though held in check on the ground two weeks ago at Washington, the Cowboys have rushed for an average of 176 YPG in their three home games, at 5.2 yards per carry. 

The Titans have had two horrid offensive games this year, but those came against two of the better defenses in the league, Jacksonville and Baltimore. While this team has yet to score more than 20 points in regulation this season, I give them an excellent shot at doing so tonight. They did have nearly 400 total yds against the Chargers in London w/ a 23-14 edge in first downs. My one concern from that game, however, was the defense allowing 7.8 yards per play. With the 30th scoring offense, but 3rd best scoring defense, Titans' games are pretty easily the lowest scoring - on average - in the league at just 33.2 PPG. But I'll call for this one to "sneak" Over as I feel the number is just too low. 10* Over Titans/Cowboys

10* Over Bucs/Panthers (1:00 ET): Tampa Bay has gone Over in all but one game this year (6-1). Ironically, the one Under was a game (vs. Cleveland) that went the distance in overtime! I can't say that I'm surprised by the Bucs being such a strong Over team. I had their offense improving while also calling for the defense to regress. Thus far, that's exactly what has taken place. The offense has gone from 20.9 PPG (18th) last season to 28.7 (7th) in '18. Meanwhile, the defense has gone from allowing 23.9 PPG (t22nd) to 33.3 (last). While the defensive numbers are obviously terrible, the offense - specifically QB - has been the biggest story in Tampa. The QB carousel is back to Ryan Fitzpatrick after he was benched after Week 4. You'll recall Fitzpatrick was only the starter initially b/c Jameis Winston was suspended. Winston went from suspended to "ineffective," so it's back to Fitzmagic we go.

Carolina just hung 36 on the best defense in the league, Baltimore. Sure they were helped out by some turnovers, but only one offense before them was able to even score more than 24 against the Ravens. In their last three home games, the Panthers have scored 31, 33 and 36 points. All three games went Over. I have to say that I'm surprised by Carolina's success this year as I definitely had them regressing from LY's 11-5 record. But w/ them starting 5-2 this year, I may have to eat my words. Consider that all of last season, they outscored opponents by only 36 points. This year, they're already at a +26 point differential. If there is one thing they should be concerned about though, it's a defense allowing 6.0 yards per play. 

The only two offenses that TB has held under 30 pts this season are: Cleveland and Philadelphia w/o Carson Wentz. I see no reason why the Panthers can't hit that benchmark this week. At the same time, I expect the Panthers defense to also give up their fair share of yards and points. They've hardly faced a difficult slate of opposing offenses to this point. Tampa Bay is actually averaging 467.9 YPG overall and is - by far and away - the top passing offense in the league at 376 YPG (58 YPG more than the #2 team). Fitzpatrick, while turnover prone, is no more turnover prone than Winston. You'll recall he started the season w/ B2B 400+ yard, 4 TD games before coming back down to Earth and being benched. But he almost led an improbable comeback LW in Cincinnati, throwing two 4Q touchdowns. I think you can tell which way I'm going here. 10* Over Bucs/Panthers

10* Under 49ers/Packers (8:15 ET): Both of these teams certainly played well enough to win last week, but neither did. San Francisco outgained Arizona 447-220, but lost 28-18 thanks to a -5 turnover margin. It was a similar story for Green Bay, who was +257 in total yardage (521-264), but lost to Detroit 31-23 due to a combination of a -3 turnover margin and kicker Mason Crosby going an unconscionable 1 for 5 on field goal attempts. So both teams definitely left plenty of points "on the field." That sounds like a reason to possibly lean Over the next time out, but I don't see either team moving the ball as effectively Monday night. Both defenses surprisingly rank in the top 10 in efficiency.  I'm on the Under. 

Green Bay is just 2-2-1 SU and the big story for them has been Aaron Rodgers' knee. Now Rodgers' knee didn't really seem to be bothering him last week as the Packers offense didn't punt a single time on their 11 possessions. But the former MVP did fumble twice for just the third time in his 14-year career. Protection has been an issue w/ Rodgers getting sacked 16 times and maybe that can be pinned on the knee injury. Yet another issue has been injuries at the receiver position. Both Geronimo Allen and Randall Cobb are listed as questionable and w/ the bye week looming, one has to wonder if it would be the "right move" to hold them out. The Packers have not scored 30 pts in a game this season and average just 23.0 PPG, 18th overall. 

San Francisco (1-4) doesn't want to hear about injuries right now as few teams have been hit harder than them in that department. QB Jimmy Garoppolo has been lost for the season, leaving the uninspiring CJ Beathard at the helm. The Niners have done a surprising amount of scoring w/ Beathard starting, but look for that to subside. Eight offensive players missed practice time this week, a group that includes three starting linemen, three receivers a tight end and a running back. So it could be a real "skeleton crew" lining up at Lambeau Field Monday night. I don't look for much from the Niners this week and this simply isn't the same Packers' offense as we've been accustomed to seeing through the years. 10* Under 49ers/Packers 

10* Under Eagles/Giants (8:20 ET): The Super Bowl Champion Eagles appear wounded. They've dropped B2B games and already equaled LY's number of losses w/ three. They're lucky to be in a pretty poor division (NFC East), which includes this week's opponent, the Giants. Philadelphia has yet to play a single NFC East game, so they still very much can control their own destiny. So far, all five games they've played have been decided by six points or less. But the reality is that last week's 23-21 loss to the Vikings (NFC Champ Game rematch) was not as close as the final score indicated. They were down 20-3 early in the second half and more than 200 of their 364 total yards came after that point. They were victimized by an early fumble return for touchdown, so their defense didn't play that poorly. 

Going back to last year, the Eagles defense has performed significantly better at home than on the road. They are on the road this week, but the Giants hardly have an offense that can take any kind of advantage. The G-Men actually scored 30+ pts last week, but of course still found a way to lose (to Carolina), this time being a Graham Gano 63-yard FG as time expired. This is a team that did not score 30 or more points in a single game last season ... or the year before that (2016) for that matter. In their previous three losses, the Giants scored only 15, 13 and 18 points. QB Eli Manning is washed up and over the hill, which is why WR Odell Beckham Jr is complaining so much. I'm not sure why the Giants have so much invested in the RB/WR positions when the QB play is so bad.

I think that it's a lock the Giants score fewer points this week. Last week snapped a streak of 37 straight games w/o scoring 30 or more. Both games vs. Philadelphia went Over last year as have each of the last five meetings. But this one should be a more low-scoring affair. Though Carson Wentz has good numbers in his first three starts, he's not making as many big plays. The Eagles' offense also just lost RB Jay Ajayi. The Giants' defense, while not great, should be able to keep them in this game. One area the G-men may have to worry about though is special teams as kicker Aldrick Rosas has not practiced this week. 10* Under Eagles/Giants

10* Under Redskins/Saints (8:20 ET): With the world focused on Drew Brees setting a NFL record, the Over is going to be a popular bet Monday night. But the oddsmakers know this and have set a high O/U mark for the Redskins and Saints. Washington should be well-prepared for this game as they are coming off a bye. They're 2-1 and last time we saw them was Week 3 as as home dog vs. Green Bay. I took them and the points in that one and was rewarded w/ a nice 31-17 outright victory. This is a team whose games have generally been low-scoring as they are averaging only 21.3 PPG while allowing only 14.7. Take the Under. 

As per usual, the Saints are scoring a lot of points. They average 34.2 points per game and have scored 40 or more twice. Last week was the first time this season that they had to take their act outdoors and they still scored 33 in a win over the Giants. They've now won three straight since that Week 1 head-scratcher against the Bucs where they gave up 48 points. The defense has faced two bad offenses the last three weeks and allowed just 18 pts to both the Browns and Giants. Washington can score more than those two teams, but I wouldn't look for them to get a whole lot more. 

Brees is all but assured to set the NFL record for passing yards in this one as he only need 201 yards to pass Peyton Manning. Will Brees be "pressing" to throw the ball and get the record though? That could be a factor. What the Saints should do is lean on the run as Mark Ingram returns from suspension for this game, joining Alvin Kamara for what is an outstanding backfield tandem. The Saints will "get theirs" on offense here, but remember they were held to just 21 pts in their last home game by the Browns. I don't look for them to hit 30 tonight. As for Washington, with Alex Smith at QB, we know they are going to be a conservative offense and I look for them to try and play "keep away" from Brees and the Saints. 10* Under Redskins/Saints

8* Under Colts/Patriots (8:20 ET): As per usual, the demise of the Patriots was greatly exaggerated. In a rare spot off B2B losses, they absolutely tattooed the unbeaten Dolphins last week, winning 38-7 as a 6.5-pt home favorite. All now seems well in Foxboro where the Pats are playing again this week, Thursday night hosting the 1-3 Colts. Indy made it look interesting LW vs. Houston, but the reality was they were down 28-10 in the second half of that game. Andrew Luck was able to force OT, but it was not to be as HC Frank Reich gambled and came up short on a 4th down call, which then set up the game winning field goal for the Texans. Can you believe the last time the Colts beat the Patriots was 2009? That's unlikely to change here, but the large pointspread had dissuaded me from making a play on a side. 

The Colts have ruled out seven players for this game. The most notable among them is WR T.Y. Hilton, leaving Ryan Grant and Chester Rogers as the team's starting receivers. Yikes. The offense did put up plenty of points last week and Luck threw for 437 yards (on 62 attempts!), but don't look for that to happen here. The previous two weeks saw the Colts gain just 281 and 209 total yards. Notable is that both of those were road games, just as this one is. The Under is a perfect 6-0 in the Colts' last six road games, not to mention a perfect 5-0 when they enter in off an ATS loss. Bottom line is that I expect very little from the Colts offense here.

Theoretically, Tom Brady should be able to move the ball at will against this Indy defense. But he may not have Rob Gronkowski to throw the ball to. Gronk is listed as questionable here due to an ankle injury after leaving in the third quarter vs. Miami. He has been absent from practice this week, though the injury is not considered that serious. Julian Edelman is expected back from suspension and a possible Gronk-Edelman pairing would be huge for Brady. Still, this offense is only two weeks removed from a disastrous effort in Detroit (209 total yards) and it won't take many points to win this one. I look for the scoring to slow down late and for the Under to come in. The Under is 4-1 in the Patriots' last five Thursday games. 8* Under Colts/Patriots

10* Under Bengals/Falcons (1:00 ET): As I expressed last week, the Bengals have really surprised me with their amount of scoring this year. This is an offense I had projected to suffer a decline in scoring from last year when they ranked dead last in the league in yards per game. Yet, they came out and scored 34 pts each of the first two weeks. They did decline some in Week 3, suffering their first loss of the season, 31-21 at Carolina. Ironically though, they gained more total yards in that game (396) than they did in either of their two wins. A -4 turnover margin is what killed them against the Panthers. Now they get set to face another NFC South team on the road, Atlanta, who has its own issues right now, namely injuries. I'm going to roll again w/ the Under on the Bengals.

Admittedly, Atlanta's defense is facing some major issues right now, all because of injuries. Only three weeks are in the books and already three defensive starters have been lost to injury. Linebacker Deion Jones and safety Keanu Neal went down in Week 1. Now the team's other starting safety, Ricardo Allen, will be joining them on the sidelines after tearing his Achilles in last week's loss to New Orleans. That game w/ the Saints was a real shootout, not decided until overtime, with the final score being 43-37. That has played a significant role in this week's total being so high. I realize there's a risk involved taking the Falcons Under w/ so many injuries on the defensive side of the ball. I took them Over two weeks ago hosting Carolina and that was a winner. But the number was also much lower. 

Want some perspective on just how high this total is for a Bengals game? Since 2010, the team has played only ONE game w/ a total north of 50 pts. That was Week 11 of the 2014 season at New Orleans and the game easily stayed Under as it was a 27-10 final (in favor of the Saints). The Bengals have a significant injury of their own that they are monitoring, that being the groin of WR AJ Green. If Green (who did not finish the Carolina game) is out, then that severely limits the Bengals' ability to exploit the Falcons' wounded secondary. Speaking of offensive injuries, Falcons' RB Devonta Freeman's status also remains unclear. I just look at this total as being too high, despite what we've seen from the respective offenses thus far. 10* Under Bengals/Falcons

10* Under Bengals/Panthers (1:00 ET): Cincinnati has opened the season w/ a pair of wins, scoring a surprising 34 points in both games. I call that number "surprising" because not only is it a lot points - even by modern NFL standards - but this was an offense I thought was set to decline in 2018. That sounds surprising given that they averaged only 18.1 pts per contest, but they were also dead last in total yds. This week, they head to Carolina to face a Panthers' team whose offense I am also quite skeptical of this season. Last year, they averaged a decent 22.7 PPG (12th most), but were slightly below average in terms of total yards (19th). Personnel losses will take their toll here as well. The Panthers' defense wasn't very good last week, but not facing the Falcons in Atlanta again will help. Take the Under. 

Cincinnati being one of six teams to average 30 or more points per game through the first two weeks is impressive, but it also has a lot to do w/ who they've played. Indianapolis was their Week 1 opponent and has a horrendous defense, one that allowed the Bengals to gain 6.6 yards per play. Last Thursday vs. Baltimore, the Ravens' offense did a great job setting Cincy's offense up on two short fields (turnovers), which led to 10 points. The Bengals also got a non-offensive TD in the opener. It's not like their yards per game average is anything special; it's only 351. They will enter this game w/o their starting center (Billy Price) and running back (Joe Mixon), which is a problem when you consider this offensive line is already 2nd in sacks allowed and 17th in rushing yards.

Carolina's defense had an "off-week" against Atlanta in the dome. The Falcons usually aren't very good in the red zone, yet converted all four opportunities into TD's. I had the Over in that game and cashed. This week is a much different story. I look for Ron Rivera's defense to be more reminiscent of what we saw in Wk 1 vs. the Cowboys when they produced six sacks and allowed only 8 points and 232 total yds. But on offense, Cam Newton is w/o his favorite target (Greg Olsen) for the rest of the season. Right now, a RB (Christian McCaffery) is the team's leading receiver. Newton is its leading rusher. That's not what you want to see, even as early as Week 3. Look for an ugly slugfest on Sunday. 10* Under Bengals/Panthers

8* Over Giants/Cowboys (8:20 ET): Two NFC East teams that thought they'd improved for 2018 each got a cold dose of reality in Week 1. The Giants lost at home, 20-15 to Jacksonville, while Dallas lost at Carolina, 16-8. With a couple of low-scoring affairs like that, it's no wonder that we find the O/U line so low Sunday night. Also, Dallas is now 9-1 Under its last 10 regular season games and 4-0 Under against the Giants the last two years. But, I believe the number is too low here. I look for a "surprise" Over here in Week 2 as both teams are desperate to avoid an 0-2 hole. 

If you combined the personnel of these two offenses, certainly it would be a desirable end result. The running game would be unreal w/ Ezekiel Elliot and rookie Saquon Barkely. Dallas has one of the top offensive lines in the league. The Giants have a great receiving corps. Dallas has the edge at QB w/ the youthful Dak Prescott over the aging Eli Manning. But both teams are "stuck" with what they've got. Dallas couldn't run for much (just 94 yards) against the Carolina defense, but should find easier sledding here against the Giants, who allowed 137 yds rushing LW to Jacksonville. It would help if their offensive line can get healthier and more productive. I don't think asking for three touchdowns is too much here. 

The Giants offense didn't look much better under Pat Shurmur than it did Ben McAdoo. But it too should start to improve. Eli Manning simply has too many weapons around him. You can argue that Barkley was drafted too high given his position, but he still gives the G-Men a running threat they didn't have last season. His presence was felt last week w/ a 68-yard TD run. The receiving corps was decimated by injury a year ago, but now has Odell Beckham Jr and Sterling Shepard back, among others. Beckham had 11 catches for 111 yards last week and remember that was against a Jaguars' pass defense that was the best in the league last season. The Cowboys secondary is nowhere close to as strong. This should be a very different type game for both teams after Week 1 slugfests. Look for more big plays and lots more scoring. 8* Over Giants/Cowboys

10* Over Panthers/Falcons (1:00 ET): These two teams combined for just 28 total pts in Week 1. Carolina beat Dallas 16-8 while Atlanta lost 18-12 to Philadelphia. With more time to prepare (played Thursday) and at home, I expect the Falcons' offense to resume its high-flying ways that we're accustomed to seeing. This will force the Panthers into a shootout and thus I see this Week 2 matchup exceeding the O/U line by quite a bit. I was a little surprised to find that the Under was 2-0 in this NFC South rivalry last season. I was even more surprised to find that it's cashed 9 of the previous 10 meetings and that Atlanta is on a streak of eight straight Unders dating back to last year's regular season. They averaged just 22.5 PPG at home LY, which seems like a number they'll improve on this year. Take the Over. 

Another reason I believe this Falcons' offense is set to improve this year is that they still ranked eighth in total yards. Red zone inefficiency really bogged them down in 2017, which could be attributed to the change at OC from Kyle Shanahan to Steve Sarkisian. That inefficiency again reared its ugly head LW in Philly, but I believe it's something that will be overcome. There were three drives where the Falcons got inside the Eagles' 5-yard line and they only came away w/ three points. Having to settle for a 21-yard field goal was disappointing, but not as bad as Matt Ryan throwing an interception or the final drive ending w/ an incompletion in the end zone. There are too many weapons on this offense for them not to score more. I suspect we'll see some big plays this week. 

Now the Falcons' defense is a different story. It took a significant hit w/ the loss of safety Keanu Neal (torn ACL) and LB Deion Jones (foot). Neal is obviously done for the year and Jones is being held out of practice this week. Carolina does not have the most dynamic offense, especially now with TE Greg Olsen out, but Cam Newton is a better QB than Nick Foles. The Falcons' D got a bit of a break facing an Eagles offense that was out of sync and riddled w/ injuries. Of course, the same could be said for Carolina's defense, which faced a one-dimensional Dallas offense that might have the worst passing attack in the entire league. Ryan will test them far more than Dak Prescott did. I look for a relatively high-scoring NFC South affair here as the Panthers are 9-2 Over following a game where they allowed fewer than 250 total yds. 10* Over Panthers/Falcons

10* Over Chiefs/Chargers (4:05 ET): The AFC West is wide open this year. It's a division that's largely been dominated by Kansas City since Andy Reid's arrival, the last two years in particular. Over the last two seasons, the Chiefs are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS vs. the rest of the division. But they have zero playoff wins to show for it. In fact, the Chiefs still have just ONE playoff win since Joe Montana retired a quarter century ago. That was three years ago against a Houston team that was quarterbacked by Brian Hoyer and Brandon Weeden. No longer content with going 12-4 and being "one and done" in the playoffs, the Chiefs have made a major move at QB this season, jettisoning Alex Smith in favor of last year's #1 draft choice Patrick Mahomes.

With the AFC West more wide open this year, the Chargers seem to have stepped into the favorite role. This was a very good team last year. They actually had a better point differential than Kansas City. But the same old issues plagued the Lightning Bolts, namely an inability to win close games. They dug themselves a huge hole last year, starting the Anthony Lynn era 0-4 w/ three of the losses coming by three points or fewer. From that point on, they went 9-3 SU (w/ one of the losses in OT), but it was "too little, too late." There's no doubt in my mind that this was one of the six best teams in the AFC last year (certainly better than Buffalo), they just didn't get a chance to show it. While there were two significant injuries sustained during camp - TE Hunter Henry and DB Justin Verrett - I believe this team has the tools to win the AFC West this year. 

Looking at last year's numbers, the Chargers were one of the top Under teams. The Under went 12-4 in their games as they allowed just 17.0 PPG, one of the lowest figures in the league (3rd). But they were actually 15th in yards allowed, so I expect some regression in the points allowed category this year. The same thing is true for the Chiefs, although it could be a bigger problem. While they ranked 15th in scoring defense, they were 28th in yards allowed. The difference here could end up being the fact that a Chargers offense that was 13th in scoring last year was also 4th in total yards. I'd "hold onto my hat" for this one as we should see plenty of scoring with the gunslingers Rivers and Mahomes leading the two offenses. Also Mahomes is likely to turn the ball over more times than his predecessor Smith, so don't rule out a defensive touchdown for Los Angeles here. 10* Over Chiefs/Chargers