Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
08-02-18 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -163 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -163 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
8* Arizona (9:40 ET): This will be the second time in three starts that Madison Bumgarner checks in as the underdog. I cautioned about being tempted to play him the last time and, in fact, played AGAINST he and the Giants in the spot. This was 7/21 in Oakland and sure enough the A's prevailed 4-3 w/ MadBum lasting only four innings and issuing a season-high six walks. Now is that performance indicative of what kind of pitcher he truly is? Hardly. Last time out, he bounced back w/ a gem of an effort at home vs. Milwaukee. But, Bumgarner is still winless on the road this season (0-4 TSR) w/ a 5.06 ERA and 1.594 WHIP. Here, not only does he have a sub-.500 career record vs. Arizona, but he'll be up against Zack Greinke, who is lights out at Chase Field. I also happen to think the Giants are a bit overrated coming in off three consecutive victories. Two of those were against San Diego, who is obviously terrible. You already had the fact that the team is playing "above its head," given that they are a game above .500, but have actually been outscored by 28 runs over the course of the season. Also, Arizona has revenge. They were actually swept by the Giants here at home just a little over a month ago. My view is that it's highly unlikely for San Francisco to turn the same "trick" twice. They aren't even a very good road team (23-32 record) as they're being outscored by nearly a full run per game in such contests. Arizona might only be 28-26 at Chase Field this season (surprising given they are in first place), but they have a run differential here than indicates that they've played better than that record. Both teams had Wednesday off. The D'backs are 10-2 in this role while the Giants are 7-4. Both are sending aces to the bump tonight. While Bumgarner has mostly been good, I already mentioned his failure to win even a single decision on the road this season. On the other hand, Greinke has a 2.39 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 11 home starts this season (5-1 WL record). He's been just plain filthy of late, posting a 0.79 ERA and 0.573 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which have resulted in team victories. Over his L7 starts, Greinke has a 1.16 ERA and 0.836 WHIP w/ the team going 6-1. With revenge and Greinke far more "affordable" than usual, I'm all over the home team in this one. 8* Arizona |
|||||||
08-02-18 | Marlins v. Phillies -175 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
analysis soon |
|||||||
08-02-18 | Royals v. White Sox -135 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
8* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): This battle of bottom-feeders may not seem all that appealing at first glance, but the White Sox will be looking to avoid getting swept by the Royals and that makes them an attractive play to me Thursday afternoon. As bad as the White Sox are, the Royals have been worse this season. KC is dead last in all of MLB in run differential (-189) and are the only team w/ a worse ERA than Chicago's staff. Going back a full calendar year, they've pulled off only one sweep, that coming at home against Minnesota right after the All-Star Break. Given their poor 19-36 record on the road this year (also just 15-28 in day games), I have serious doubts that they'll be able to repeat the feat here. Thus, look for the home team to salvage the finale of this three-game set. Now the White Sox certainly aren't "gangbusters" at home, or in day games for that matter. Also, last night was the FOURTH time in the past seven games they allowed 10+ runs. They're 1-6 overall during that stretch. But last night saw them go 2 for 16 w/ RISP, which signals to me the loss was more about missed opportunity rather than simply not playing well. Getting swept by the Royals at home would be quite the embarrassment, so I anticipate the players will be motivated here. One player in particular that should be highly motivated is starter Reynaldo Lopez, who has revenge on his mind for a loss to the Royals last month. He gave up five runs in 7 2/3 IP, which was the start of an ugly three-game stretch for the right-hander. Last time out may have been "rock bottom" as Lopez gave up eight runs to Toronto. But he still has a decent 1.166 WHIP here at Guaranteed Rate Field. The recent numbers from Royals' starter Brad Keller are no better than Lopez's, yet somehow he has a 2-1 TSR his L3 starts (White Sox have lost the last four times Lopez has taken the mound). That 2-1 TSR is in spite of Keller posting a 7.04 ERA and 1.825 WHIP. Last time out may have been the shocker of the year. Even though Keller allowed four runs in 5 2/3 innings against the Yankees, the Royals were able to win 10-5 as +340 underdogs on the money line! It was the second time in three starts than Keller had more walks (3) than strikeouts (1). The other one was against these White Sox as he got hammered for five runs in just 2 2/3 IP w/ four walks and just one strikeout. Coming into this series, the White Sox were 7-2 against the Royals this year. So I can't see them being swept at home. 8* Chi White Sox |
|||||||
08-01-18 | Rockies v. Cardinals -130 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
10* St. Louis (8:15 ET): Colorado won yday, 6-3, setting up this "rubber match" of sorts Thursday night at Busch Stadium. Truthfully, the Cardinals should feel somewhat fortunate that they're not on the verge of being swept here. On Tuesday, they rallied back from a 4-1 deficit to win in 10 innings. Last night saw them again struggle offensively as they had just one run entering the final frame. Rockies' starting pitching has been shockingly good of late and should be respected away from the constraints of their home park. But their offense isn't much to "sneeze at" on the road as they're averaging just 4.3 rpg outside of Coors Field this season. Lately, they haven't been doing much hitting at all. Before yday, they'd averaged just 2.9 rpg over the last seven contests w/ a .237 team batting average. Kyle Freeland will start for Colorado tonight. He's got a 5-0 TSR his L5 outings w/ a 2.76 ERA over the last three. But, his WHIP is 1.408 over those L3 starts as well, which indicates he's been anything but dominant. He's walked six batters the last two starts alone and strikeout numbers from Freeland remain pretty pedestrian. Colorado may "rue the day" they chose not to make any additions at the deadline as they've been a pretty clear overachiever to this point (-1 run differential) and it's pretty crazy to think they enter the day tied w/ the Dodgers (+91 run diff) in the NL West. I do not think the Rockies will be able to maintain their current win percentage, if that run differential stays the same over the course of the year. Luke Weaver will start here for St. Louis, who is desperately trying to remain relevant in the playoff race itself. They enter Thursday 4.5 games back of the Wild Card. Despite having an inferior record compared to Colorado, they do own the slightly superior run differential (+13). They're also 30-22 off a loss. Weaver was very good his last time out, which resulted in a 5-2 win over the Cubs, as he gave up just two runs - both on solo HR's. Three of Weaver's four starts in July were very good as he allowed only five runs in 20 IP. The other was short, and he allowed three runs in four innings, but that was in Wrigley. This is a much weaker offense he'll be facing here, one that had scored four runs or fewer in seven straight games prior to yday. I look for the Cardinals to win this game and possibly the series (wraps up Thursday afternoon). 10* St. Louis |
|||||||
08-01-18 | Astros -126 v. Mariners | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
8* Houston (4:05 ET): These two AL West rivals are separated by only four games in the standings and have split the first two games of this three-game set. However, to call them "evenly matched" would be HIGHLY misleading. What I've written about each of the last two days, and will continue to harp on here, is how the respective run differentials of the two teams tell a VERY different story than the standings do. Houston has outscored its opponents by a MLB-high 180 runs so far this season. Seattle has actually been OUTSCORED, despite being 19 games over .500. In terms of actual vs. expected wins (based on run diff), this is a matchup of the biggest "underachiever" (Astros) and underachiever (Mariners) in all of baseball. Thus, I'll look for Houston to take the series. The 'Stros were my 10* Game of the Week last night and they came through, winning 5-2. That win actually snapped a season-worst five-game losing streak, which saw them get swept for the 1st time all year (by Texas over the weekend). Key to the Astros success this season has been their remarkable play on the road where they average 5.5 rpg (tied for most in MLB w/ Oakland), which in turn is responsible for them being +2.5 rpg away from home, easily the best mark in all of baseball. They are also 23-12 in day games so far and I like the fact they'll be sending Dallas Keuchel to the bump this afternoon. Keuchel, a former Cy Young, has been great of late w/ a 1.93 ERA and 0.964 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, he did lose as a huge favorite (-260 vs. Texas), but prior to that the team had won each of the five times he'd taken the hill. There have only been two instances all year where the team lost B2B Keuchel starts. One was in April and none since June. Keuchel is 0-2 vs. Seattle this season, but he's 8-7 against them all-time w/ a 3.17 ERA. I think the third time will be the charm this afternoon. The Astros' offense failed to show up either of the two previous tries (just 1 run both games), but that should NOT be the case here against Wade LeBlanc, who - like most in the Seattle rotation - has overachieved. Houston beat LeBlanc back in June, getting to him for three runs in four innings (final score was 7-5). LeBlanc's ERA in seven career appearances vs. Houston is 5.32. He's actually made two additional appearances vs. them in '18 (non-starts) and has given up a total of seven runs on 12 hits in 8 IP. Now that the losing skid is over, look for the Astros to go back to dominating. 8* Houston |
|||||||
07-31-18 | Brewers v. Dodgers -165 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -165 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): These two NL Playoff hopefuls continue a three-game set Tuesday w/ a pitching matchup of Wade Miley vs. Walker Buehler. Milwaukee took last night's series opener (which featured a 23-minute delay to a power outage), 5-2, by jumping on Kenta Maeda early. The loss was actually the Dodgers' second in a row, but I can't see that streak continuing, given how well they've played over the last couple months (39-21 L60 games, including 16-9 in July). As for Milwaukee, they too failed to sweep their last series, losing on Sunday. But they've been a lot more mediocre this month, going just 14-13 overall. In a prior series vs. the Dodgers (concluded less than 10 days ago), they won just one of the three games and that was at Miller Park. Having won Monday, Milwaukee probably feels pretty good about itself as they send the veteran Miley to the bump. That's because Miley, a Los Angeles native, has enjoyed a great deal of success at Chavez Ravine throughout his career. He's 3-0 w/ a 2.41 ERA in six career starts here. He also pitched well against the Dodgers in the last series between the two teams, allowing only an unearned run over six innings. However, the Brewers went onto lose that game, 6-4. Miley has a surprisingly low ERA in his five starts this season (2.02), but his WHIP (1.388) indicates that number may be a little misleading. Strikeout numbers are unimpressive for Miley and in fact he has more walks than K's this season. That's never a good sign. I do not expect him to pitch as well here as he did the last time vs. the Dodgers. Buehler has also pitched well at Chavez Ravine, posting a 1.78 ERA and 0.764 WHIP (six starts) here in this, his rookie season. There's a little concern after he tied a season-high by giving up five runs last time out. But that was on the road (at Philadelphia). He's yet to allow more than 2 ER in any home start, which is a good sign obviously. So is the fact they have only one three-game losing streak since mid-May. In fact, this is just the second time in July that they've dropped B2B games. They are 17-5 the L22 times they've been off a loss. So the odds are high that they'll bounce back tonight. I'm on 'em. 8* LA Dodgers |
|||||||
07-31-18 | Astros -133 v. Mariners | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
10* Houston (10:10 ET): The Astros did not work out for me last night as they were shutout by the Mariners, 2-0. It was the 'Stros fifth loss in a row overall, which is their worst such streak all year (previous high was three). Over the weekend, they were swept for the first time all season - by the Rangers. Despite this, I fully expect a bounce back tonight in Seattle. As discussed yday, the gap in the standings between these two AL West may be down to just a few games (3, to be exact), but the respective levels of play this season are not even close. While the Mariners have actually been outscored this season (despite being 20 games over .500), Houston has a run differential of +177. Based on the runs scored vs. allowed formula, the Astros' division lead should be TWENTY-ONE games, not three! Charlie Morton will toe the rubber for the visitors tonight. In his only prior start against Seattle this year, Morton pitched quite well. He allowed threw seven shutout innings of three-hit ball w/ eight strikeouts and no walks. Houston won the game 9-2. That's been part of an incredible 2018 renaissance for Morton as he now stands at 11-2 in 20 starts w/ a 2.89 ERA and 1.158 WHIP. Last time out, he experienced a bit of hard luck as he allowed just one run (on a solo HR) in six innings, but the team lost 3-2 at Colorado. That was the start of the current five-game slide. Morton may have started this season-high losing streak (not his fault, obviously), but I'm calling for him to also be the one to stop it. The Astros' offense also needs to pick it up. They've scored just 10 runs total during the five-game slide and last night was just the sixth time they've been shutout all season. They've won each of the last three times after being shutout coming into this game. History suggests to expect an offensive explosion as they are averaging 5.6 rpg on the road this year. That's led to them having - by far - the best road run differential in the league at +2.5 rpg. Now they don't have Carlos Correa or Jose Altuve right now, but I'll still take what's left against Mike Leake, whose 14-7 team start record is a total overachievement given his 4.15 ERA and 1.289 WHIP. We've already started to see some regression from Leake as the team has won just one of his last four starts and that was his last time out. I'll continue to maintain that the Mariners are highly overrated as their overall WL record has been propped up by a MLB-best 27-14 record in one-run games. Whether it's by one run or 10 runs, it'll be the Astros winning tonight. 10* Houston |
|||||||
07-30-18 | Astros -108 v. Mariners | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
10* Houston (10:10 ET): The gap between these two AL West rivals currently stands at four games. That's pretty preposterous given the respective run differentials. Division leader Houston has outscored its opposition by a MLB-high 179 runs while second place Seattle has actually been OUTSCORED (by three runs). In terms of actual vs. expected wins (again, this is according to run differential), you won't find a bigger underachiever (Houston) or overachiever (Seattle) in all of baseball. The 67-40 Astros have played to the level of a 74-win team according to run diff while a Mariners team that is currently 62-43 has played to the level of a 52-win team. So the 4-game gap that actually exists "should" be 18 games according to run differential. I look for that discrepancy to become somewhat rectified this week at Safeco Field, starting tonight. For Monday's series opener, each side will be sending arguably its best pitcher to the mound. For Houston, that's Gerrit Cole. What a season he's had after coming over from Pittsburgh. The Astros have won 17 of his 21 starts w/ Cole posting a 2.54 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Those numbers rank 5th and 4th respectively among AL starters and he's also averaging a phenomenal 12.4 per nine innings. Last time out, he allowed just two runs on five hits in six innings. He also had nine strikeouts, making it four straight starts w/ 7+ K's. Both runs allowed Tuesday at Colorado came on doubles in the 7th inning. Still, Houston wound up winning, 8-2. The team was just swept (for the 1st time ALL year!), over the weekend by Texas. But that was at home. What's unique about this year's Astros is how dominant they've been on the road. They're outscoring teams by 2.5 rpg away from Minute Maid Park, easily the best differential on the road in all of baseball. Seattle counters Cole w/ James Paxton. This will be his 1st start in 17 days as he was a scratch last Tuesday due to a bad back. Thus, he'll likely be on a pitch count tonight. Personally, I think this is a great spot to fade Paxton as he hadn't looked the same over the past month anyway. It's a real "baptism" by fire facing the Astros in his first start back. The Mariners just avoided getting swept w/ an 8-5 win over the Angels on Sunday as they scored all but one of those runs in the top of the first. Don't look for that kind of cluster luck at Cole's expense. Neither pitcher has lost to this opponent this year w/ Paxton holding a pair of wins against the 'Stros and Cole having thrown seven scoreless innings here at Safeco back in April. It boils down to Paxton being a great fade in this spot and Houston simply being the much better team. They're also going to highly motivated to bounce back after this past weekend's debacle. 10* Houston |
|||||||
07-30-18 | Marlins v. Braves -160 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Last Tuesday, Wei-Yen Chen and the Marlins upset Julio Teheran and the Braves 9-3 as +110 ML underdogs. I just can't see "lightning striking twice," especially w/ the scene now shifting to SunTrust Park where the Braves were big winners yday, 7-0, behind a near no-hitter from Sean Newcomb. Now that almost "no-no" (one out short!) only helped the Braves avoid what would have been a sweep at the hands of the Dodgers. But going from facing LA to Miami is a significant drop in class even if the former is coming off B2B wins over Washington (at home). Even w/ the two wins, the Marlins were only able to salvage a series split w/ the Nats and they remain well below .500 (46-61) and also own the worst run diffrerential in the entire National League at -129. Atlanta is tops in the NL East in run diff (+62) and I like them a lot here w/ starter Teheran out for revenge. Teheran did not pitch well - at all - six days ago against the Marlins. Given the final score, that shouldn't come as a shock, but it was still jarring to see him get blasted for nine runs - seven earned - in just 4 1/3 IP. Troubling is the fact it was Teheran's second bad start against Miami this year, the other one coming here at home (back in May). But I'm willing to say the "third time will be the charm" as he's working on an added day of rest here. Originally, he was set to pitch Sunday, but both he and Newcomb were pushed back a day. Considering how well that worked for Newcomb (who had struggled mightily this season), I'd say there's a lot of hope for Teheran here. He threw 6 1/3 shutout innings in his last home start and has given up just one run total his L13 IP here. Meanwhile, the home-road splits for Chen are pretty striking. Four of his last five starts have been in Miami and he's allowed 1 ER or less in all of them. But in the one away from home, he gave up seven runs in 4 1/3 innings. The end result was an ugly 18-4 loss at Washington and that was by no means the first time Chen got beat up on the road. His ERA and WHIP in eight road starts this season are 10.47 and 2.021 respectively. That's just brutal. Overall, Miami is a terrible road team, getting outscored 1.8 rpg. They allow the highest number of rpg on the road (5.9) in the entire National League. I think the Braves re-discovered their offense yday and will beat up on Chen tonight. 8* Atlanta |
|||||||
07-29-18 | Mariners v. Angels -110 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (4:05 ET): We're starting to see what I felt was an inevitable decline for the Mariners finally take hold. The truth is that this team has overachieved all season long and is nowhere near as dominant as its 61-43 record might suggest. After dropping the first two games of this series, the M's have now actually been outscored over the course of the season (-6 run differential). How is that even possible, you ask? Well, they've happened to go a MLB-best 27-14 in one-run games, not to mention 8-1 in extra innings. That lone extra inning loss happened to occur Friday night here in LA, then they were drubbed yday by a score of 11-5. Consider that the Angels actually have a far better YTD run differential (+39) despite being eight games back of Seattle in the AL West. They are the better team here. Offensively, the Angels are in a zone right now as last night marked the fourth time in the last seven games that they scored 10 runs or more. Meanwhile, since the All-Star Break, Seattle has been in a funk at the plate. They've been held to three runs or fewer in seven of the last nine games and that doesn't even include last night's drubbing. The hot Angels hitters will see a familiar face on the mound today, that being Marco Gonzales, who they've already faced four times this year and twice this month! Now they've yet to beat Gonzales, but three of the previous four matchups came in the Pacific Northwest. Here in LA, I'm banking on the "fifth time being the charm." While the two starts earlier this month were quality, the other two for Gonzales against the Angels were not. The Halos will turn to Felix Pena as they look to sweep their division rival right out of town. Though only 3-3 in six starts this season, Pena has a 2.73 ERA and 1.247 WHIP, so he's pitched relatively well. In fact, he's allowed no more than 3 ER in any start. Last time out, despite a quality start, he lost as a big favorite (-185 on ML) to the White Sox. But that wasn't necessarily his fault; he got no run support until the 8th inning, well after he'd been pulled. Unlike Gonzales, Pena will benefit from an "unfamiliarity" factor as the Mariners have yet to face him. While a good home team, Seattle is nothing more than pedestrian on the road. 8* LA Angels |
|||||||
07-29-18 | Brewers v. Giants -109 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (4:05 ET): You don't see road teams come in and achieve a four-game sweep very often, so the odds are against Milwaukee winning here. Sure enough, the Brew Crew have NEVER swept a four-game series here in San Fran, whether you're talking AT&T Park or Candlestick. Now they've obviously played well this weekend, thus opening up a nice lead in the National League Wild Card race. But history is against them today in more ways than one. They're just 17-26 in day games this season and just 4-12 on Sundays (some obvious overlap there). The Giants came into this series sporting a 31-18 record at home and although they've largely overachieved in staying above .500 this season, I think they're a great play this afternoon. Today's pitching matchup is an interesting one as Junior Guerra and Andrew Suarez are two of only 13 NL starters have to sub-4.00 ERAs and a losing record. For Milwaukee, Guerra's recent decline is a little more worrisome. While the team has won five of his last six turns, he has posted a 1.67 WHIP in his L3 starts. That's largely owed to one terrible start at Pittsburgh back on 7.13, but he also gave up three unearned runs his last time out, which was his only start since the All-Star Break. Guerra also hasn't struck out many batters over his L3 starts. Suarez has pitched better than Guerra recently, giving up just nine runs total his L4 starts. Yet he has nothing to show for it as he's in danger of a winless July. Maybe some "home cooking" is what he needs as he's got a 3.35 ERA and 1.014 WHIP in eight starts at AT&T Park this season. The Giants' last win happened to come w/ Suarez on the hill, Tuesday vs. Seattle. I just can't see the Giants getting swept at home. 10* San Francisco |
|||||||
07-28-18 | Diamondbacks -159 v. Padres | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
8* Arizona (8:40 ET): It's pretty surprising that the D'backs are only 5-3 head to head w/ the Padres this season, given the respective ends of the spectrum where the two have resided for most of the season. But they had no problem winning here in San Diego last night, doing so 6-2 behind a strong effort from Zack Greinke. While the offense has generally failed to impress in '18, they should have their way tonight against embattled Padres' starter Tyson Ross, who they absolutely destroyed earlier this month. Back on 7.7, they scored eight times off Ross - in just two innings - in what ended up being a 20-5 victory. Ross had lost his previous five decisions before winning his last time out. Meanwhile, Arizona starter Pat Corbin has a 2.23 ERA w/ 41 K's in his L6 starts (no HR allowed). Working on seven days' rest his last time out, Corbin threw 70 of his 98 pitches for strikes and was able to induce 18 swings and misses, a very good number. Despite a decreased velocity, he's still averaging 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings. He's had a surprising lack of success against the Padres in his career, but did hold them to just two runs (in 6 IP) earlier this year. Pitching has NOT been an issue for Arizona this season (allow just 3.9 rpg) nor has been playing on the road where they've gone 30-23 overall. It's not like San Diego is a good home either; their record at Petco Park this season is only 19-31 and they're being outscored by a ghastly 1.2 rpg. Ross has been a lot better since getting crushed by the D'backs three weeks ago, but I don't see that as the start of anything special. The team is actually 12-8 in his 20 starts this season (6-0 when he does NOT factor into the decision), but that's in spite of a 4.37 ERA and 1.297 WHIP. Both of those numbers actually go UP here at home. Since getting within four games over .500 last month, San Diego has dropped 26 of its last 34 games. I don't need much of a reason to fade the last place team in the NL West as they aren't any good offensively (28th or lower in runs scored, batting average, OBP and slugging) and shown no signs of "life" recently. 8* Arizona |
|||||||
07-28-18 | Nationals -146 v. Marlins | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -146 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:10 ET): Sometimes, one teams just "owns" another. That is obviously the case when it comes to the NL East "rivalry" between the Nationals and Marlins. The former is 8-1 this season against the latter, including easy wins (10-3 and 9-1) in the first two games of this weekend series. The domination really extends beyond just this year, however, as the Nats have taken 21 of the 28 total meetings since the start of last season. They are 5-0 at Miami in 2018. I see no reason why the trend won't continue tonight w/ Gio Gonzalez on the mound. There's no denying that the Nats have been one of baseball's biggest underachievers this season, but this is pretty clearly a "get well" series against the team that owns the National League's worst run differential (-135). Washington was actually below .500 before their current three-game win streak began (now 52-51 overall), but they've outscored their opponents this season by a healthy 44 run margin. That tells me that they're due for better results moving forward. That +44 run differential is actually better than the first place team in the NL East, Philadelphia, who is "only" +30. Yet, somehow the Nats are six games back. Look for that gap to get rectified though in the coming days. Gonzalez is off one of his shakier efforts of the year, but the southpaw doesn't allow more than 3 ER very often. Meanwhile, the Washington offense has scored 26 runs the L3 games. They've been shutout three times in Gonzalez's last six starts (and scored just SEVEN runs total!), but they'll make up for that tonight. While Washington has clearly underachieved in '18, Miami has actually overachieved. That sounds strange to say for a 44-61 team, but according to run differential, the Marlins have played to the level of a 38-win team. That gap between actual and expected wins is the largest in the entire NL and second largest in all of baseball (Seattle). The Fish had only three hits last night and are 27th in runs scored for the year. They'll start a rookie tonight, Trevor Richards, who does come in off B2B quality starts. But .. we're still looking at a 4.41 ERA and 1.457 WHIP for the year from him. Given what we've seen over the last two games, I see no reason why Miami would be able to "put it together" tonight. Make it another win for the Nationals. 8* Washington |
|||||||
07-28-18 | Mets -138 v. Pirates | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -138 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
10* NY Mets (7:05 ET): From 7.11 to 7.24 (bookending the All-Star Break), Pittsburgh won 11 straight games. I called for that losing streak to come to an end Wednesday though and that it did, in shutout fashion no less, in Cleveland. They lost again Thursday, this time at home, in the series opener to the Mets. But they bounced back Friday w/ a 5-4 win. I'm on the record as saying the Bucs are likely to "give a little back" in the coming weeks as that 11-game run "reeked" of randomness. I'm also on the record as saying the Mets' Jacob deGrom may be the unluckiest pitcher in recent memory. Despite possessing a 1.71 ERA and 0.967 WHIP, deGrom somehow is only 5-5 in his 20 starts (w/ an 8-12 TSR). But I'll call for him to get the win here against a team that has been overachieving of late. The "somehow" that's responsible for deGrom's poor team start record is pretty easy identify as it's a clear lack of run support. Over his L16 starts, the Mets have topped five runs just once and that was a 12-2 win at hitter-friendly Coors Field. They've scored three runs or fewer 13 times during that stretch! But I'll call for the offense to support him today, despite the fact that Pirates starter Trevor Williams comes in riding an 11-inning scoreless streak. Williams is hardly durable as he's gone more than six innings just two times all season. His WHIP isn't very good over his L3 starts (1.50) and it's not like the Bucs' bullpen is lights out. Note that his last start was shortened by rain, allowing the Pirates to prevail 7-0 in Cleveland. Meanwhile, we pretty much "know" what we are gonna get from deGrom. He's gone 17 straight starts w/ allowing 3 ER or fewer. Last time out, he was outstanding as he struck out 10 batters in eight innings. He's now gone eight innings each of his L3 starts. Unfortunately though, there was an error that opened the door for him allowing two runs Monday vs. San Diego, then he got hit w/ another (unearned) and the Mets wound up losing 3-2. However, don't let that result mask the fact deGrom threw a first pitch strike to 26 of the 31 batters he faced. Or the fact, he still leads the NL in ERA (and is 2nd in WHIP). deGrom is the "great equalizer" here and long overdue for better results. At the same time, Pittsburgh is "due" for a downturn. 10* NY Mets |
|||||||
07-27-18 | Cubs v. Cardinals -112 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): The Cardinals have a bit of a built-in advantage here as they had Thursday off while the Cubs were wrapping up a series w/ the D'backs. They're also at home. Now, like their overall record, the Cards are just a 50/50 proposition at Busch Stadium. They've actually been outscored here over the course of the season. But if there was ever a time to get going, it's right now as the team finds itself on the outskirts of playoff contention. They're only 4.5 games back of the Wild Card, though they'd have to jump several teams to get the spot. Hosting their main rival after a long eight-game road trip seems like all the motivation they'll need and I like St. Louis to take tonight's series opener. The Cubs were able to salvage a split w/ the D'backs after dropping the first two games of the series. But both wins were of the one-run variety and they managed all of four runs in the first three games. Though the Cubs have actually underperformed in terms of wins and losses, at least according to run differential, they've been a pretty lucky team in July w/ numerous come from behind wins. Yesterday was another example w/ them scoring three times in the bottom of the ninth for a 7-6 win. They actually overcame what was a five-run deficit at one point. It was their 12th come from behind victory in the last month alone, which seems like a pretty unsustainable blueprint for success, if you ask me. Two of those 12 come from behind victories came at the Cardinals expense in the first series after the All-Star Break, but note St. Louis actually outscored them in that series, due to winning one of the games 18-5. St. Louis actually has a winning record this year vs. the Cubs (7-6), including a 4-2 mark here at home. But tonight's starter, Luke Weaver, has had no success against the Cubs in his career nor at home this year. Weaver is 0-3 w/ a 10.89 ERA in five career starts vs. the Cubs and just lost to them in his most recent start (gave up three runs in four innings). He's also 0-4 in eight home starts this season. But he still has a 3.00 ERA and 1.056 WHIP his L3 starts overall and I think he's going to surprise tonight. He's also up against a weak starting pitcher for the Cubs, that being Mike Montgomery, who has a 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP his L3 starts. Montgomery was also unsuccessful in his last start, which came against this very opponent. Yes, the Cubs are the better team overall, but they won't be on this night. 8* St. Louis |
|||||||
07-27-18 | Blue Jays -141 v. White Sox | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
8* Toronto (8:10 ET): For a White Sox team that isn't any good to begin with, this is an absolutely brutal spot. After wrapping up a four-game set out in LA yday afternoon (lost 12-8), they had to fly back East (across two time zones) and now host a Toronto team that will be motivated after it was swept by Minnesota. The Blue Jays had off yday. These teams haven't met since early April when the Jays were able to take two of three North of the Border. At the time, Toronto fans were thinking their team might have a shot at doing something here in 2018 (started 12-5). But that has proven not to be the case. Still, they're a lot better than a White Sox team that has been outscored by 137 runs this season, which happens to be the third worst differential in all of baseball. On its off-day, Toronto made news by dealing J.A. Happ to the division rival Yankees, in exchange for Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney. Drury is expected to be in the lineup tonight. But truthfully, that has little bearing on this play. I like starter Marcus Stroman and what he was able to do in his most recent outing as he allowed just one run and five hits in seven innings. Granted, that was against Baltimore, but remember that the White Sox aren't much better than the Orioles. It was also the third time in his last five starts that Stroman went at least seven innings and gave up two runs or fewer. He should have little difficulty here in shutting down a Sox lineup that ranks 24th in runs, 22nd in batting average and 26th in OBP. When you're 30 games below .500 like the White Sox are, there is little use for a quality closer. So, it was not that surprising to see the Sox ship off Joakim Soria to the Brewers. That netted them a pair of prospects, but it also leaves a big void in the backend of the bullpen. It's a bullpen that's probably going to need to be ready as well, given how poorly today's starter Reynaldo Lopez has pitched of late. In his L3 starts, Lopez is 0-3 w/ a 6.75 ERA and 1.672 WHIP. He's allowed 5 ER in B2B starts. The Blue Jays are 8-5 following an off-day and I can't see them losing here. 8* Toronto |
|||||||
07-27-18 | Phillies v. Reds +105 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 105 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): Our 10* Game of the Week play on the Reds last night did NOT work out as they gave up an insane 7 HR's to the Phillies in a 9-4 loss (actually, lucky that final score wasn't even worse as all but one were solo shots). But w/ the revenge angle still in play, I'm going back to the well again tonight. The revenge angle stems from the Reds getting swept out in the City of Brotherly Love back in April. But as discussed yday, they were not the same team back then, which was the "dying days" of the Bryan Price regime. They've basically been a .500 club for interim skipper Jim Riggleman and assuming they do a better job of keeping the ball in the yard tonight, I believe they are in strong position to deliver a win. Despite averaging 6.1 rpg over the last seven days, the Phillies are only batting a collective .220. They also still are a losing proposition on the road. I understand how Anthony DeSclafani facing this Phillies lineup could produce some trepidation. DeScalafani has allowed one HR in seven straight starts and eight total in his last four starts. The Phillies have homered in seven straight games and have 15 in just the L4 games. DeSclafani is coming off rough B2B starts, but the Freehold, NJ native (home of Springsteen!) at least had six strikeouts in 4 1/3 innings his last time out, which is an encouraging sign. In addition to hitting a lot of home runs lately, the Phillies have also been striking out a bunch (league-wide trend). They struck out nine times yday, increasing their total to 76 since the All-Star Break. I don't believe those HR totals are sustainable obviously, nor is averaging 6.1 rpg w/ a .220 average. The Reds are just 2-5 since the Break w/ all of those games taking place here at home. That's obviously disappointing, but in the last series they did take two of three from the Cardinals. They did battle back from a 4-0 deficit last night, tying things up in the bottom of the fourth inning. This will be the 1st time since 2015 that the Phillies have seen DeSclafani. Meanwhile, it's the second time in 2018 that the Reds will have faced Nick Pivetta, who is the starter tonight for the Phils. While Pivetta did hold Cincy to just two runs on five hits back in April, he's only 5-8 in 20 starts total and has a 5.35 ERA/1.512 WHIP on the road. This is a better price on the Reds compared to yday and really there's no reason for that. 10* Cincinnati |
|||||||
07-26-18 | Phillies v. Reds -129 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -129 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): Several factors, like the motive of revenge and the line move, point to a big Reds win tonight at Great American Ballpark. But above all else, I'm just not sure I'm a believer in the Phillies. Sure, they come in off B2B wins over LA. That is impressive. But it was basically one big inning that did it yday and then Tuesday was a 16-inning affair. The effects of that game are likely still to be felt this weekend in the Queen City whereas the host Reds should be just fine playing a third straight series at home since the All-Star Break. Simply put, the Phillies are not the same team on the road (23-26 record) as they are at home (34-18) anyway. I say that I'm not a believer in part b/c of a run differential that's roughly equivalent w/ the 50-51 Nationals. I like the Reds big tonight in a revenge spot. Yes, the Phils did sweep the Reds earlier in the year. But it was very early in the season, during the "dying days" of Bryan Price's tenure, in fact. After starting the year 3-18, the Reds have been better than .500 for interim skipper Jim Riggleman. They're actually 7-2-1 their previous 10 series! Despite not getting a lot of offense, they were able to take two of three from the Cardinals in the last series, including a 7-3 win yday. Their only loss in the series was their own extra inning affair on Tuesday. They hand the baseball to Tyler Mahle tonight and while he's off rough B2B outings, I feel he's likely to bounce back here. The Phillies are near the bottom of the league in terms of runs scored on the road and at a bit of a disadvantage never having faced Mahle, a rookie. Mahle leads all NL rookies in wins, starts and innings pitched this year as well as strikeouts (101). Philly will counter w/ a rookie of its own in this spot, one making his big league debut. This will actually be the fourth consecutive game that the Reds are facing a rookie pitcher and for three of the four, it's been their big league debut! Tonight it's Ranger Suarez, who not that long ago was pitching down in Double-A. Yes, the Reds have struggled to hit against this recent rash of rookie pitching they've faced, but I have to wonder if this spot might prove to be "too big" for Suarez. He made only three starts at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. The Phillies have experienced a lot of good fortune in 2018, but not tonight. 10* Cincinnati |
|||||||
07-25-18 | Astros -119 v. Rockies | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:40 ET): The Astros' 8-2 win last night might be a tad bit misleading in the sense that it required an extra inning, but note that they also led 2-0 for much of the game before exploding for six runs in the 10th frame. Colorado was able to tie things in the 7th w/ a two-run rally, temporarily scaring me (I had Houston), but it's hard not to be confident in a team that's 31 games above .500 and outscored its opponents by a MLB-best 194 runs. If anything, a win such as last night's was overdue for the 'Stros considering that run differential indicates they've actually UNDERperformed (in terms of wins and losses) this season. Thus, I'll come right back w/ them again as the Rockies AREN'T as good as their WL record and the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field are rather conducive to the Astros having success. Houston averages a MLB-best 5.7 rpg on the road. No other team can even touch their +2.6 per game run differential on the road. Thus, it was a little odd to see them held scoreless from the second through the ninth inning last night in the most hitter-friendly park of all-time. But then came the six-run explosion in the 10th and that was all she wrote. Now they were facing perhaps the best pitcher on the Colorado staff, Tyler Anderson. Tonight, they'll be up against Jon Gray. Despite a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts, Gray still has a 5.35 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, making him a good fade against this Astros' offense. It has certainly been an interesting season for Gray, who was the team's Opening Day starter, but was also sent down to Triple-A at one point (due to struggling w/ his mechanics). His last start, which was quite good, was his first back from a two-week stint "down on the farm." But he was recalled mainly out of neccessity (Rockies' rotation is currently short-handed) and I wouldn't be optimistic about him in this spot. Houston will go w/ Charlie Morton, who hasn't been all that sharp of late, but still has a 2.96 ERA for the season. He also has 37 strikeouts in his last four starts, which have spanned 23 2/3 innings. He's dropped only two decisions all year and the team has won five of his last seven starts overall. He has experience pitching at Coors Field. Earlier, I mentioned that Colorado has been an overachiever and that's based on the fact they've been outscored this year despite a record that's six games over .500. They actually have a losing record at Coors where they (not shockingly) allow more runs per game than any other team at home in all of baseball (5.8 rpg). As I said in yday's analysis, this is quite the ideal matchup for the reigning WS Champs. 8* Houston |
|||||||
07-25-18 | Pirates v. Indians -173 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:10 ET): The Indians came out of the All-Star Break swinging for the fences as they scored 27 runs in two games against the Texas Rangers. But they failed to sweep that series, getting shutout on Sunday. They suffered another shutout on Tuesday and then were beaten again by the Pirates last night (9-4), so now it's them looking to avoid the sweep. This team is far too potent to be swept at home from where I sit as they average 5.9 rpg here at Progressive Field. No team in all of baseball scores a higher average at home. Pittsburgh was a team that I thought appeared destined to sink to the bottom of the NL Central at one point, but instead it's been quite the opposite as they enter this game on an inexplicable 11-game win streak. That comes to an end today, however. Not only do the Indians typically "bring the offense" here at home, they also have (arguably) their most reliable starter on the bump this afternoon. That would be the enigmatic Trevor Bauer, an All-Star who ranks second in the American League in innings pitched (140 1/3), third in strikeouts (182), fifth in ERA (2.50) and strikeouts per nine innings (11.7) as well as 10th in opponents batting average (.218). Recently, he's been able to maintain those numbers/rankings (2.84 ERA, 12.3 K's per nine innings L3 starts), yet has nothing to show for it as he's received three straight no decisions. Now, last time out, Bauer wasn't that sharp as he gave up four runs (tied for season-high) in his shortest start of the season (4 IP). But the main reason why Bauer's TSR is "only" 12-9 has been lack of run support. That changed in that last start (Indians won 9-8 over Texas) and I'm predicting he'll get the requisite amount of help today as well. Though Bauer has faced the Bucs only one time in his career (in 2015), he has fared quite well in Interleague Play, particularly this season. He's 9-5 w/ a 2.66 ERA vs. the NL all-time, including a 2-0 mark w/ a 0.44 ERA in '18. He threw eight shutout innings against the Reds in this ballpark back on 7.10, allowing only three hits and finishing w/ 12 K's. Pittsburgh, who is still only 4-13 this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, will turn to Jameson Taillon today. Like Bauer, Taillon has probably pitched better than his (11-9) TSR indicates. But he hasn't been as good as Bauer, generally speaking, although his last two starts were both great. Taillon does have a 6.75 ERA in IL Play this season though. The last time a Pirates team won this many games in a row was 1996 when they still finished 73-89. I think the current streak will prove to be just as random as I don't rule out a similar finish this year. The last two days aside, Cleveland is the much better team here. 8* Cleveland |
|||||||
07-25-18 | Dodgers -127 v. Phillies | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -127 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
10* LA Dodgers (12:35 ET): Talk about a short turnaround. After 16 long innings, these teams finally wrapped things up at 1:14 AM local time w/ the Phillies prevailing 7-4 on a walk-off HR. That was a really tough loss for Dodger Blue, who led 4-1 entering the 7th frame. With heavy bullpen attrition, they were forced to give the baseball to an outfielder (Kike Hernandez) in the 16th last night and he gave up the GW home run. Overall, the teams combined to use 18 different pitchers in the contest. There's going to be a heavy burden on today's starting pitchers and I'll side w/ LA, who is still the better team in my eyes. They won 7-6 on Monday, dealing the Phillies a rare one-run defeat (Philly is 20-9 in such games this year). That record in one-run games has artificially propped up the Phils' overall WL record as has their now 7-3 mark in extra innings. I still lean on the fact the Dodgers have outscored opponents by 89 runs this season while the Phillies are at "just" +23. Both of this afternoon's starting pitchers have had a lot of success of late. In fact, both enter this game w/ 4-0 TSR's over their last four starts, respectively. That said, Philadelphia's Jake Arrieta has gotten to face Miami and San Diego his L2 outings and was quite lucky not to lose against the latter, his last time out. Arrieta gave up five runs in just 3 1/3 IP, but his offense bailed him out in what ended up being an 11-5 Phillies' win. Back on May 29th, Arrieta did throw seven shutout innings against the Dodgers. However, since then, he's been quity shaky, posting a 5.06 ERA and 1.417 WHIP. Twice in the last seven starts, he has not gotten out of the fourth inning. Given the state of the bullpen after last night, that's a really big deal. Arrieta's strikeout totals have been relatively low all season, which indicates a lack of dominance as well. The Dodgers will go w/ Walker Buehler here. He has a 0.994 WHIP in 10 starts this season and has allowed 2 ER or fewer eight times. Last time out, he did surrender a pair of solo home runs, but the Dodgers still were able to beat the Angels, 3-2. Last night's loss was just the Dodgers' sixth here in the month of July. They have not dropped B2B games since the end of June and are 30-15 overall since the start of last month. I do believe the respective YTD run differentials "mean something" and that something is that LA is the significantly better team here. They take today's rubber match. 10* LA Dodgers |
|||||||
07-24-18 | White Sox v. Angels -178 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -178 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (10:07 ET): The Angels dropped the series opener to the White Sox last night, 5-3, as they've reached a bit of a "crossroad." They're now a game below .500 and 10.5 gms back of the second Wild Card spot in the American League. It will obviously require a pretty substantial run for them to make the playoffs. That all being said, I think that they're poised for an easy win Tuesday night. Fading the White Sox off a win is always a good idea (they're 11-23 in the role this season) as is playing against them on the road (16-35). The Southsiders' die was cast long ago for 2018 and they're simply not a good team. The last time they beat the same oponent in consecutive days was late June. Since starting the year 2-0 (at Kansas City's expense), they've done it only five times all season! The Angels had the lead early last night, but starter Jaime Barria simply could not hold it. I expect a stronger effort tonight from Felix Pena, who has looked quite good in his five starts thus far. Pena has yet to lose a decision or allow more than three earned runs. Here, he faces an offense that generally is not very good (4.0 rpg). Granted, his ERA is much lower on the road, but w/ the White Sox visiting that's not that big of an issue. Priced in the +125 to +175 range on the road, the Sox are 4-12 this season. They're 22-55 the L3 seasons. Meanwhile, the Angels have generally handled their business as a larger home favorite (-175 or higher), going 7-1. Last night aside, it's the top teams in the American League that have given them trouble, not the bottom-feeders. Chicago also gives up 5.8 rpg as the road team. Only Miami is worse in that regard. Tuesday's starter Carlos Rodon is off his strongest effort of the season as he threw 7 1/3 scoreless innings against St. Louis all the way back on 7.11. But I wouldn't be too confident in the follow-up as plenty of time has elapsed since then. It was also just the second time in seven starts that the White Sox won w/ Rodon on the mound. Betting against a bad team on the road, off a win, just seems pretty logical to me. 8* LA Angels |
|||||||
07-24-18 | Astros -150 v. Rockies | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
10* Houston (8:40 ET): To me, there's no question that the Astros are the best team in baseball right now. That distinction is confirmed by a MLB-best +188 run differential and the reality of the matter is they've played even BETTER than their 66-36 record indicates. One of the most impressive components of the 'Stros season thus far has been their play away from home where they have a 34-15 WL record. They average a MLB-best 5.7 rpg in those games, so just imagine what they'll be capable of here, playing in the most hitter-friendly park in the league. Even w/o a DH (NL rules), I expect plenty of runs on the board tonight and w/ Gerritt Cole pitching, this looks like an extremely low price on the defending WS Champs. Cole enters this game w/ a 16-4 team start record, 2.52 ERA and 0.982 WHIP. He's been one of the key cogs in a pitching staff that is clearly MLB's best. Not only do the Astros score more than any other team on the road, they also give up the fewest (3.1). The result is a per game run differential of +2.6, which is nothing short of jaw-dropping. Cole has yet to allow more than four runs in any of his 20 starts this year, which could be tested here, but also is likely to be offset by his own offense's production. In his last start before the All-Star Break, Cole held the Tigers to one run and three hits in an easy 9-1 win. Having had Monday off, Houston has had plenty of time to "stew over" a 14-5 loss to the Angels on Sunday (which denied them a sweep). That was the most runs they gave up to any opponent all season. The only other time they allowed 10+ runs, they came back and won the following game. Like Houston, Colorado failed to finish off a three-game sweep on Sunday. In the Rockies' case, a 6-1 loss to the D'backs ended a season-best seven-game run. The team has certainly played well of late, but my view is they're still quite overrated, at least in terms of WL record. Despite being 53-46, they've actually been outscored this season. No team gives up a higher number of runs per game at home, so that works against them. They'll look to counter Cole w/ Tyler Anderson, who has definitely pitched well of late, but this may very well end up being his toughest assignment of the season. Even w/ the recent win streak, the Rockies are still only .500 at home for the season, including 3-7 when Anderson toes the rubber. 10* Houston |
|||||||
07-24-18 | Yankees -202 v. Rays | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
6* NY Yankees (7:10 ET): It was a somewhat improbable fifth straight loss to the Rays for the Yankees last night as they fell as huge favorites on the ML (closed as high as -290 at some shops!) w/ Luis Severino on the mound. (Severino entered the game w/ an 18-2 TSR). This losing streak to the Rays actually dates back to last month and includes a sweep that took place right here at Tropicana Field. The home team has now won all but one of the 10 times these AL East teams have met this season. But that trend should be broken tonight as I'll call for the Yanks to gain a measure of revenge. Tampa Bay has again been rather "coy" w/ its starting pitching situation, but we "know" what we're gonna get from Masahiro Tanaka and it should be enough for the victory. Seven pitchers worked for the Rays in last night's 7-6 win. That puts quite the onus on tonight's starter, rookie Yonny Chirinos, who has been out of the rotation since April. Some of that was injury (to his forearm), but he also wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire on rehab assignment down in Triple-A Durham. In eight starts there, he posted a 5.28 ERA, so there was no real rush to get him back to the big leagues. Blake Snell was originally set to start this game for the Rays, so that's a big break for the Yankees, who should have tied last night's game in the top of the ninth were it not for a lack of hustle from Gary Sanchez on the final out. Chirinos' last three starts at the big league level hardly went well as he posted an 8.02 ERA and 1.945 WHIP. The Yankees are 23-10 off a loss this season. That alone provides ammunition to call for a bounce back, but w/ Tanaka on the hill, the feeling becomes even stronger. Unbeaten in 10 road starts this season (5-0) and in his last 11 starts overall, Tanaka has a far better WHIP than ERA, which is notable. Generally speaking, he does not allow many baserunners. Last time out, he held Cleveland to two runs in 6 1/3 innings. He was 6-0 in his career vs. TB prior to stumbling against them LY. This will be the 1st time facing them in '18, which is a bit of a surprise given how often the teams have met. The bottom line is that I just can't see the Yankees losing as big favorites B2B days. 6* NY Yankees |
|||||||
07-24-18 | Pirates v. Indians -181 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -181 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Pirates won their 10th in a row last night, albeit in "abbreviated fashion" as the game was called after six innings (rain). But make no mistake about it, they really "took it to" Cleveland, winning 7-0 as huge (+245 ML underdogs). Just as surprising as them beating up on Corey Kluber (scored four runs against him) was the fact the Indians were shut out. This is a team that averages 5.9 rpg here at Progressive Field. No team scores more runs per game in their home park. I expect the Tribe to bounce back tonight though, behind Shane Bieber, as hopefully Mother Nature will not be as big a factor. I've got to say that this 10-game win streak has certainly come out of "nowhere" for Pittsburgh. Prior to it beginning, the team appeared to be sinking in the early part of July. They're now three games above .500, but I don't see this as a legit playoff contender as there's no ace in the rotation or even an All-Star in the everyday lineup. The bullpen, while 44-1 when leading after seven innings, doesn't exactly have a spectacular ERA or WHIP either. They are a very random 11-2 in Interleague Play following yday's win, but I wouldn't read too much into that. After all, the AL Central (outside of Cleveland) is very weak and that's who they've been beating up to this point. The other four teams in the division are all sub-.500 teams. I put more stock in the Pirates' 3-13 record as ML road dogs of +125 to +175 than I do the IL record. Last night's starting pitching matchup looked to be lopsided in favor of the Indians, but instead produced a shocking result. I don't see lightning striking twice however as the Bucs' Joe Musgrove was fortunate to escape w/ a no-decision his last time out after giving up five runs. It was the third time in the last five starts he allowed that many runners to score. For Cleveland, Bieber has been admittedly a little shaky himself over the L3 starts, but still has a 6-1 TSR. The Indians' offense has been quite schizophrenic recently as they scored 19 runs on Saturday, but have since been shutout each of the last two days. But remember what I wrote earlier about them leading all of MLB in runs per game at home. I look for the offense to bounce back big-time tonight and Bieber to take care of the rest. The Indians' one real albatross in the first half was the bullpen, but that group was solidified w/ a big trade during the Break. 8* Cleveland |
|||||||
07-23-18 | A's v. Rangers -112 | Top | 15-3 | Loss | -112 | 21 h 59 m | Show |
10* Texas (8:05 ET): Oakland was a 10* winner for me Saturday and Sunday, but truthfully they were a little fortunate to win both those games (against the Giants). Good fortune has typically gone this team's way of late as they are now 17-8 in one-run games, which partly explains them getting to 14 games over .500 w/ a fairly mediocre +22 run differential. Getting back to the weekend, they beat the Giants in the final at-bat each of the last two days (in extra innings, no less). Now, they did have early leads in both games, only to have to then rally. I just see their run of good luck ending tonight in the Arlington heat against Cole Hamels. The A's have lost their last three games at Globe Life Park (dating back to April), including a pair here last month. "We're two games into the (second half) and it feels like we've played 20 in a row," Oakland manager Bob Melvin said prior to Sunday's game and that was BEFORE they needed 10 innings to dispose of the Giants. Somebody (by rule!) is going to get that second Wild Card in the American League and while I don't know who it'll end up being, I'm pretty sure they'll end up as a sacrificial lamb to either the Red Sox or Yankees. The A's have to be feeling like it's "their year" as they've now gone 23-7 the L30 games. They also just added Jeruys Familia (at a relatively low cost) to a bullpen that is already 39-0 when leading after seven innings (best such record in all of MLB). But the last two games had to have taken a lot out of them and I wouldn't be so confident in starter Brett Anderson, who somehow has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts in spite of a 1.608 WHIP. For the season, Anderson has a 6.09 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in six starts. Hamels may soon be leaving Texas for a contending team, meaning there's a good shot this could be his last start in front of the Rangers' fans. It's not been a typical Hamels season in 2018, but I feel he's still more than capable of putting together a strong second half. He's faced Oakland twice this year, splitting the pair while posting a 2.38 ERA and 16-5 KW ratio. The Rangers shut Cleveland out yday, 5-0, for their 1st win since the Break. Oakland is surprisingly just 15-26 vs. the rest of the AL West and I feel this spot greatly favors the home team. 10* Texas |
|||||||
07-23-18 | Padres v. Mets -174 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -174 | 2 h 7 m | Show |
Play still valid despite pitching change. See below. 8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): Truthfully, neither of these teams is any good. However, last night's rainout is our gain as it puts the Mets in perhaps the most favorable spot they'll be in the rest of the way. Because of Sunday's game being postponed, Jacob deGrom's start has been bumped back a day to face a far weaker opponent than had he been forced to go up against the Yankees last night. The Mets ending up w/ the day off is a huge advantage facing a Padres team that just had to play two in Philadelphia yday (split the pair). There has been a pitching change here for the Padres, but it's immaterial as the now starting Joey Lucchesi is no better than the originally scheduled Eric Lauer. The Mets are just 29-55 since opening the season 11-1 for first year manager Mickey Callaway. They've sunk to the bottom of the NL East, but it should be pointed out their run differential is significantly "better" than that of the Marlins, so I expect them to move up a spot in the division before all is said and done. It's mostly when deGrom starts that the Mets become "backable" as he has a 1.68 ERA and 0.973 WHIP. Despite those numbers ranking 1st and 2nd respectively in the entire NL, the Mets somehow have managed to go just 8-11 in his 19 starts this year. Incredibly, there have been seven different occasions this year when deGrom has allowed 1 or 0 ER over 7+ innings and NOT gotten the win. But again, facing the Padres instead of the Yankees is the kind of a lucky break any starter would beg for. deGrom is 3-1 w/ a 1.53 ERA in five career starts vs. SD. While the Mets are somewhat of a dumpster fire, the Padres are even worse as they own the Senior Circuit's worst overall record right now. They were shutout in the second game yday, getting held to just two hits, as their offense continues to be one of the weakest in the game today. They rank 27th or lower in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging. They get no relief from the starting pitching here either as Lauer enters this game w/ a 2-6 TSR and 1.785 WHIP on the road this season. The team has dropped 13 of 17 here in June and the Game 1 victory yday snapped a six-game slide. With a 1.59 ERA and 0.882 WHIP at home this season, don't we think that deGrom is deserving of far better than a 4-6 TSR here? I do! 8* NY Mets |
|||||||
07-23-18 | Dodgers -133 v. Phillies | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (7:05 ET): Though they get to stay at home (where they're 32-17 this season), this is a tough situation for the Phillies as they just played a doubleheader yday (split w/ SD). In come the Dodgers, who are red hot and represent a major step up in class. Dodger Blue just won for the sixth time in eight games Sunday, beating up on the Brewers (in Milwaukee) by a score of 11-2. They're now 39-18 overall going back to May 17th and have started to seize control of the NL West. Though technically a battle of division leaders (Phillies up on the Braves by one game in the East), LA has proven itself to be the far more potent team in my eyes as they have a run differential of +91, which is second best on the entire Senior Circuit, trailing only the Cubs. Meanwhile, despite having a near identical record (to LA), Philly's run differential is just +21 as they've been artifically "propped up" by a 20-8 record in close games. The 49-49 Nationals actually have a better YTD run diff! Few would have expected Zach Eflin to be a major player in the Phillies' rotation this season, but here we are in July and that's definitely been the case. He enters Monday w/ a 7-2 record, 3.15 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in 12 starts (8-4 TSR). He's allowed 2 ER or fewer in nine of those starts. But he missed his last scheduled start before the Break (due to a blister) and it will be interesting to see how he performs here. The last time Eflin did pitch was 7.9 vs. the Mets and he allowed three runs in five innings, snapping a six-game win streak. What we do know is that he did NOT perform well against this Dodgers' lineup back on 5.30 as he gave up five runs and seven hits in just four innings of work. That was obviously before the Dodgers bolstered their lineup w/ Manny Machado. Eflin has surrendered a total of SEVEN home runs to the Dodgers in 14 innings against them, all-time. As I just alluded to, this Dodgers' lineup is now far more potent than it was two months ago. That's thanks to the addition of Machado, whose presence is being felt up and down the batting order. He's 5 for 13 since coming over from Baltimore while Matt Kemp is 6 of 13, including a pair of HR's in yday's rout of the Brew Crew. The Dodgers, who have homered seven times in the last six games, will turn to Ross Stripling (an All-Star) on the mound today and he beat Elfin back on 5.30 thanks to allowing just one run on four hits in 7 IP. Stripling has now allowed 2 ER or fewer in 11 of his last 13 outings and just threw six scoreless innings in his last start before the Break. As reflected in the line, the Dodgers are the superior side here. 8* LA Dodgers |
|||||||
07-22-18 | Giants v. A's -133 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
10* Oakland (4:05 ET): Following a dramatic win last night (in 11 innings), I feel the A's are poised to beat the Giants again on Sunday. The A's were my *10* Game of the Week last night as they won for a 22nd time in the last 28 games. This club looks to be a legit contender for the 2nd AL Wild Card spot (we KNEW Seattle would come back to the pack) and the front office certainly appeared to "double down" on 2018 by going out and acquiring closer Jeurys Familia from the Mets yesterday (didn't even have to give up all that much). Meanwhile, the Bay Area rival Giants continue to look a tad bit overrated as they've been outscored this season (-23 run differential) despite owning a winning record. The last series between these teams (earlier in the month) saw the Giants take the opener, only for the A's to come back and win the next two. Same thing this time around. Sunday starter Sean Manaea has shown himself to be a very key cog in this A's rotation. He has a 0.995 WHIP in 20 starts this year, so he probably "deserves" better than a 12-8 TSR. (At home, that WHIP is even better). Manaea's last start also came against these Giants and he held them to just two runs on five hits in six innings. The A's won that game pretty easily, 6-2, and I see little reason why history wouldn't repeat itself here. Manaea has now allowed three runs or fewer in eight consecutive starts. Though the Giants do (theoretically) benefit from having a DH in the lineup here, they're only 20-30 on the road this season and a pretty weak hitting lineup overall (3.5 rpg on the road). San Francisco sends Johnny Cueto to the mound this afternoon and while has some nice numbers, it's still a relatively limited sample size due to time spent on the disabled list. Since coming off the DL, he hasn't really been the same either. He's allowed eight runs and 16 hits in 10 innings and given up four home runs. Remember that American League rules for this game work both ways as Cueto must also deal w/ a lineup that has the DH. Oakland has done quite well for itself in Interleague Play this season, going 10-4 overall. They're also 26-14 in day games. Losing an 11-inning game can be really tough on a team, especially when there's a quick turnaround such as this. Thus, I look for the A's to beat up on an emotionally spent Giants team today. 10* Oakland |
|||||||
07-22-18 | Cardinals v. Cubs -134 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): These long-time rivals have already played four games this weekend, including a doubleheader yday. They were not only even yesterday (Cubs won Game 1), but have split the four games. That means somebody will win the series today and my money is on the Cubs, who have surged into 1st place in the NL Central and are clearly the division's best team. St. Louis fired manager Mike Matheny shortly before the All-Star Break in what seems like a desperate attempt to get things going. The bottom line is that the Cards are little more than an average ballclub. The Cubs, on the other hand, have the NL's best run differential as they are the first team in the Senior Circuit to reach 500 runs scored this year. They'll take the series. Both Sunday starters come in sporting identical 3-0 team start records over their last three starts respectively. For the Cubs, it's Jose Quintana getting the baseball and he has a 2.81 ERA in six career starts vs. St. Louis. Not only that, he threw six scoreless innings of three-hit ball his last time out. That ended up being a 2-0 win at San Francisco and it was the seventh time in his last eight starts that he gave up three earned runs or less. The team has gone 12-6 in his 18 starts this year, not to mention they're 25-15 off a loss. The Cubs have been a strong home team as well, going 31-18 at Wrigley. I think Quintana is poised to do just fine here against a St. Louis offense that was held to two hits in yesterday's opener and just five runs total before "busting loose" in the ninth inning of the nightcap. The Cards' Miles Mikolas has very similar numbers to Quintana and did come out on the winning end of a previous battle, all the way back on May 4th. That was in St. Louis though when he tossed seven scoreless innings (did allow 7 hits). Neither pitcher is posting a lot of strikeouts lately, so - for me - what this comes down to is a superior offense from the home team. St. Louis is outside the top 10 in all key categories while the Cubs are no lower than seventh in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging. In fact, they are tops in all of MLB in OBP (.348) as well as 2nd in BA (.267). They're the better team and this is a great price on them at home. 8* Chi Cubs |
|||||||
07-22-18 | Twins -133 v. Royals | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -133 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (2:10 ET): The Royals are on the verge of doing something almost unprecedented for their very forgettable 2018 season. That would be win three consecutive games. They've done it only one other time all season, that coming back in late May when they took two from the Cardinals and then beat the Rangers. Never have they swept a series. They have a chance to do just that on Sunday, hosting Minnesota, as they've won by scores of 6-5 and 4-2 the L2 days. But I'll now step in and bet against the sweep from happening as there's just no sugarcoating how bad this team truly is. At 29-68 overall, they've been outscored by a mind-blowing 190 runs. They're only 13-35 at home! Minnesota has its own "warts," but should have enough pride to want to avoid what would be a very embarrassing sweep. The Twins have actually outhit the Royals in both games so far in the series, but have still trailed most of the way. Today, I expect them to get off to a fast start against former Rule 5 pick Brad Keller, who - like his team - has enjoyed little to no success in '18. He's 1-3 in eight starts (2-6 TSR), including 0-2 his L3 (0-3 TSR) w/ a 5.87 ERA and 1.825 WHIP. Curiously, he has yet to allow a single home run. Yet that hasn't stopped him from giving up plenty of runs anyway. Last time out, he lasted only 2 2/3 innings while giving up five runs to the White Sox. That came on the heels of allowing four runs in 4 2/3 innings to Boston the start before that. His KW ratio in those two starts is a horrible 3-9. Something else to consider is that not only have the Royals not swept a series all year, this is the first time they've won B2B games since the end of May (also against the Twins)! Minnesota will go w/ Jake Odorizzi, hardly an inspiring starter himself, but ever if there was a time to get off the proverbial schnide, it would be here. Before allowing six runs (five earned) in his most recent start, Odorizzi actually had been pitching relatively well, allowing just two runs total his previous three starts (which spanned 17 IP). He has not faced KC yet this year. But he knows the team well having previously pitched for the Royals. One positive is that Odorizzi does have more strikeouts than innings pitched. The Royals are just 13-26 in day games this season and I just can't see the Twins being swept here. 8* Minnesota |
|||||||
07-21-18 | Giants v. A's -118 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
10* Oakland (9:05 ET): Madison Bumgarner & the Giants might be tempting at an underdog price, but I'll side w/ Trevor Cahill and the Athletics here in this battle for Bay supremacy. The Giants did win last night, 5-1, but you may recall they also took the series opener from the A's last week as well, only to drop the next two games. It was Bumgarner that started that prior win (I remember b/c I had him!), but he was also up against a far less capable pitcher. Taken as a whole, San Francisco should be viewed as an overachiever given their winning record (51-48) in spite of a -22 run differential. Oakland could be viewed through a somewhat similar prism as their 55 wins and +20 run differential don't exactly "add up," however, the way I see it is someone HAS to challenge Seattle for that second Wild Card spot in the AL and it might as well be these guys! Something curious about Oakland is that their number of runs per game scored go way down here at home. Only division mate Houston averages a higher number of runs per game on the road and as a result the A's are 31-21 in those games. They're only 24-22 here at the O.co Coliseum, but one player in particular that doesn't mind toeing the rubber here happens to be tonight's starter, Cahill. He has a 0.64 ERA and 0.786 WHIP in four home starts this season, numbers that are obviously quite ridiculous. His last time starting here, he threw eight shutout innings (w/ six strikeouts and zero walks) in a very hard-luck (1-0) decision to to the Rays. Still, that was the third home start Cahill didn't allow a single run. He's allowed just two (both to Seattle on 5.22) total in 28 IP. Something else I like about the A's here is their 9-4 record in Interleague Play. While they (theoretically) do benefit from the addition of a DH to the lineup this weekend, the Giants still average just 3.5 rpg on the road and shouldn't give Cahill much trouble here, IMO. One would have to go all the way back to the 1st of the month to find the last instance of them scoring 5+ runs in B2B games against the same opponent. They're just 20-29 in road games, including 0-3 in those started by Bumgarner and that's not a case of "hard luck" at all as MadBum has a 4.67 ERA/1.50 WHIP in those three outings. Even after the quality effort last week, his career ERA against the A's is still only 4.62 (six starts). Unlike Tampa Bay (who I lost w/ last night), Oakland seems serious about making a postseason run, so I'll go w/ them tonight in a bounce back spot where they're very likely to get a quality start. 10* Oakland |
|||||||
07-21-18 | Astros -168 v. Angels | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
8* Houston (7:15 ET): Justin Verlander has a legit claim to being the best pitcher in all of baseball this year and the Astros (in my view) are clearly the best team. So, it's downright shocking that the reigning World Series champs are only 12-9 in Verlander starts this season. Considering he's third in the American League in ERA (2.29), 1st in WHIP (0.84), 2nd in IP (137 2/3) and 4th in strikeouts (172), that team start record makes little sense to me and it seems quite logical that there will be a lot more wins moving forward. The Angels are an opponent that Verlander has absolutely feasted on since becoming as Astro as he's a perfect 4-0 against them in the L12 months, having allowed just 2 ER and 11 hits in 31 IP. I believe he'll easily lead his team to victory Saturday night. Houston cruised to victory last night in the season opener, 3-1, sending the Angels to an even .500 for the year (49-49). Not since opening the season w/ a loss have the Halos been below the proverbial "Mendoza line." But the Astros aren't an opponent that will give them any breaks. The champs are an incredible 33-14 on the road w/ 5.7 rpg scored. They are easily MLB's best road team this year and are also 22-10 in day games (remember this is a West Coast game, so it will be starting in the afternoon). Angels' hitters had virtually no answer for Dallas Keuchel last night as they didn't get their first hit of the game until the seventh innings and finished w/ only two total. Given some of the season-long struggles at the plate (average only 4.0 rpg at home), it's difficult to imagine them "figuring things out" when facing a pitcher the caliber of Verlander. Now I should point out that Verlander is actually winless over his L6 starts, a stretch which dates back to 6.14. But that only serves to make me want to endorse him MORE given the numbers discussed above. Plus, there's the history of dominating this particular opponent. Despite giving up 4 HR's in his last start, Verlander did have 12 K's in his 6 IP. Further aiding his cause here is the fact he's up against the struggling Nick Tropeano, who has a 7.54 ERA and 1.675 WHIP his L3 starts. Yet, his team has actually won twice during that time! But win is something Tropeano has yet to do at home this season (in 5 starts) as he's struggled moreso here than on the road. The Angels are simply not good when stepping up in class (14-27 vs. .500 or better teams TY) and just 7-20 the L27 times they've been priced as a home dog of +125 to +175 on the ML. 8* Houston |
|||||||
07-20-18 | Indians -188 v. Rangers | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 21 h 22 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (8:05 ET): The Indians made headlines on the final day of the All-Star Break, completing a blockbuster deal that looks to totally revamp their beleagured bullpen. Considering their 'pen had the worst ERA in all of MLB in the 1st half, it was a necessary move to bring in Brad Hand, no matter the price. Granted, it will be a breeze earning another AL Central pennant, but there's a lot of ground to make up to compete w/ the likes of the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros. The Tribe's first opponent after the break, Texas, is one that they should dominate regardless of the bullpen situation. In fact, they may not even need to call upon new arms to finish the Rangers off on Friday. Not considering the way starter Trevor Bauer (an All-Star) has pitched this season. I look for Cleveland to roll here. I played Bauer in his most recent start, which ended up being a 5-2 win over the Yankees. Taken from that analysis, "Despite his 10-9 TSR overall, he's pitched quite well all season, owning a 2.30 ERA and 1.075 WHIP. Over the L3 starts, the enigmatic Bauer has a 1.61 ERA and 0.985 WHIP and last time out he was truly dominant w/ 12 strikeouts in eight shutout innings vs. the Reds. It was the sixth time in his last nine starts overall that Bauer finished w/ 11 or more K's. He has a 1.58 ERA and 0.935 his L7 starts w/ a 71-13 KW ratio in 51 1/3 IP. He has not lost since June 13th, holding opponents to a .192 batting average since while striking out 12.1 hitters per nine innings. He's tied for second in the AL in ERA (w/ Boston's Chris Sale) and also third in both strikeouts and innings pitched. It's pretty easy to understand why this guy is an All-Star, no?" True to form, Bauer shut down the Yankee bats on Sunday, limiting them to two runs in seven innings. It should be a lot easier against the Rangers, especially starting opposite Martin Perez, who has some truly unsightly numbers this season (7.67 ERA, 2.046 WHIP). He has a 10.00 ERA in two home starts. Texas typically gives up a lot of runs (5.7 per game at home), so scoring should not be a problem for Cleveland here and Bauer takes care of the rest. Perez has pitched only one time since April, that being last Saturday. While that last start went well, it was against sorry Baltimore and the Rangers still lost (1-0!). I wouldn't count on Perez pitching that well again here. 8* Cleveland |
|||||||
07-20-18 | Marlins v. Rays -160 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -160 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): About two months ago was a critical turning point in the Rays' season. Manager Kevin Cash, faced with an injury-riddled rotation and middling record, decided to roll the dice and start employing "openers" (as he calls them), meaning a reliever to start the game. But, generally asked to go no longer than two innings, these "openers" are no traditional starters. As "wacky" as the experiment seemed at the time, it has paid shocking dividends. Tampa Bay entered the All-Star Break w/ the lowest team ERA in all of MLB since the change was made. They also have gotten themselves into Wild Card contention and I see no reason (other than the front office trading away key talent) why this club can't make it three playoff teams out of the AL East. The Rays couldn't have asked for a much easier opponent to start the second half and should roll Friday. Of course, the Rays have some quality "traditional" starters as well. One is Nathan Eovaldi, though you wouldn't know that by simply looking at his team start record. Eovaldi has a 3-6 TSR despite a 0.980 WHIP. While he is coming off his worst start of the season (allowed eight runs in 2 2/3 IP vs. Minnesota on 7.13), I'm confident in him bouncing back given the bulk of the resume. His previous three starts had seen him allow just two runs (on 10 hits) in 19 IP. It also helps to be pitching at home where the Rays are 26-17 and outscoring the opposition by a full run per game. So far, Eovaldi has gotten to pitch at home just twice and his last time here saw him hold another NL East foe (Washington) scoreless over six innings of one hit ball. The Marlins present an ideal matchup for Eovaldi considering their lousy offensive numbers (26th in runs, 28th in slugging). They are his former team, so expect an inspired start. The Marlins did surprisingly take two of three from the Rays last month, but that was in Miami. You can look to find these Fish "swimming" at the bottom of the National League the rest of the way as they've been outscored by a Senior Circuit worst 115 runs. Honestly, them having even 41 wins at this point of the season should be considered fortunate. They've been outscored by nearly two full runs per game on the road this season and no team allows more runs per game away from home (and here they'll have to deal w/ a DH). Starting here is Dan Straily, who has pitched well of late, but still owns a 4.29 ERA & 1.346 WHIP for the season. The team has won just two of his previous nine outings. It was a win when they faced Eovaldi last month, but in extra innings, as Eovaldi held them to just two runs. Tampa is simply the much better team here, especially at home. 8* Tampa Bay |
|||||||
07-15-18 | Mariners v. Rockies -135 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
8* Colorado (3:10 ET): I'm no huge fan of the Rockies, but I'm even more skeptical of a Mariners team that has somehow managed to go 58-38 in the first half despite not actually outscoring their opponents! That "somehow" is a totally unsustainable 26-11 record in one-run games (plus, let's throw in the fact they are also 8-0 in extra innings!). Seattle is lucky in that they'll head into the ASB w/ a pretty significant lead for the second Wild Card spot in the American League. But I expect this team to be a BIG-time regressor in the second half and, in fact, we've already started to see some of that as they've dropped six of their last eight games overall. That includes the first two of this three-game set at Coors Field where the Rockies have suddenly turned it around, winning 6 of 7. Overall, Colorado has won five straight series, all against teams w/ .500 or better records. They're still fighting for relevancy in the NL West where they currently in third place behind the Dodgers & D'backs. Truthfully, I do not believe this to be a playoff team (they were LY) as they too (like Seattle) have a negative run differential for the year. But there's no denying they are a hot team right now (won 9 of 11) and they also will send a hot starter to the mound Sunday in the form of Tyler Anderson, who has allowed all of one run in his L3 starts (22 IP). Anderson has a 0.41 ERA and 0.727 WHIP during that time as he's allowed a ridiculously low nine hits. The last two starts have occurred here at home and remember he'll be facing a "weakened" Seattle lineup here, one that's w/o the usual DH spot in the order (National League park). After scoring seven times in Friday's opener (but they still lost), the M's were held to just one run last night. That won't cut it regardless of the circumstance, but given the way Sunday starter Mike Leake has pitched of late, they could be in some real trouble here. Leake, whose 13-6 TSR is somewhat misleading, has a 6.00 ERA and 1.933 WHIP his L3 outings. He gave up seven runs on 11 hits - in just four innings - his last time out and had only one strikeout. It was his second straight start going only four innings (both against the Angels). I mentioned the likely regression earlier, but Seattle is now assured of dropping three straight series for the 1st time all season. They are just 1-4 vs. Colorado this year and I believe this overachieving ballclub continues to come back "down to Earth" on this final day before the Break. 8* Colorado |
|||||||
07-15-18 | Nationals -128 v. Mets | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
8* Washington (1:10 ET): Earlier this month, the Nationals took the first three games of a four-game set from the lowly Marlins and appeared poised to make a run to the top of the NL East. However, they lost the finale of that series and have now dropped five of seven entering the final day before the All-Star Break. They will go into the Break third in the NL East, but despite facing a 6.5-game gap, the Nats really aren't playing that much worse than the top two teams in the division. Well, maybe compared to Atlanta. But they actually have a slightly better run differential than 1st place Philadelphia! They're certainly better than today's opponent, the Mets, although they've lost to them each of the last two days. But I see big win here going into the Break for the team from the Nation's Capital. The Mets started 11-1 for 1st year skipper Mickey Callaway. Since then, the bottom has dropped out. They've gone 28-53 the L81 games and haven't won a series since a sweep of Arizona back in mid-May. That's what they're going for today, plus a third straight win at home, something they also haven't done in nearly two months! Yesterday saw starter Zach Wheeler pitch into the eighth inning for the first time in four seasons and win for the first time since April 29th. But I wouldn't count on getting the same from rookie Corey Oswalt today. In three starts so far, Oswalt has a 7.81 ERA and 1.421 WHIP. He is actually coming off his 1st quality start as he went six innings and allowed just one hit against Philadelphia on Monday. But he also had three walks and that led to him allowing three runs despite just the one hit. Jeremy Hellickson hasn't exactly been durable for the Nats, but he did toss five scoreless innings of two-hit ball his last time out. Save for one terrible showing vs. Miami earlier this month, Hellickson has allowed 3 ER or fewer in every other start this season. Now, he's made it through six innings just once, but at least he's taking care of the early innings. It's not like the Mets are an offensive juggernaut, in fact, it's quite the opposite as they rank 25th or lower in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging. The Nats actually have a losing record TY vs. the Mets (just 3-6!), but I can't see that continuing as I believe this team is due for bigger & better things in the second half. 8* Washington |
|||||||
07-15-18 | Yankees v. Indians -127 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:10 ET): For whatever reason, the Indians just can't seem to beat the Yankees. Well, technically, they did on Friday (and I had 'em), but after yday it's eight losses in the last nine head to head meetings, a streak which dates back to last year's infamous LDS (Indians blew 2-0 series lead). However, I feel that they'll beat the team wearing pinstripes today and head into the ASB w/ some positive "momentum" (hate that word!). The Tribe are too good of a home team to pass up at this price (they lead all of MLB in scoring at home) and starter Trevor Bauer has been relatively lights out of late, despite a 1-2 TSR his L3 starts. These teams are a lot more even than the head to head results this year suggest. Look for the Indians to earn themselves a series split on Sunday. Over those L3 starts, the enigmatic Bauer has a 1.61 ERA and 0.985 WHIP. Despite his 10-9 TSR overall, he's pitched quite well all season, owning a 2.30 ERA and 1.075 WHIP. The team has been a lot more successful when he pitches here at home (6-3 in his 9 starts here) and last time out he was truly dominant w/ 12 strikeouts in eight shutout innings vs. the Reds. It was the sixth time in his last nine starts overall that Bauer finished w/ 11 or more K's. He has a 1.58 ERA and 0.935 his L7 starts w/ a 71-13 KW ratio in 51 1/3 IP. He has not lost since June 13th, holding opponents to a .192 batting average since while striking out 12.1 hitters per nine innings. He's tied for second in the AL in ERA (w/ Boston's Chris Sale) and also third in both strikeouts and innings pitched. It's pretty easy to understand why this guy is an All-Star, no? Bauer will be opposed here by Masahiro Tanaka, who has gone three months w/o taking a loss, although his ERA is 4.12 during that time. Despite being unbeaten in nine road starts (5-0), his ERA in those games is 4.91. Now, he does have a much better WHIP than ERA, but I still view him as the inferior starting pitcher in this particular matchup. There's no denying the Yankees have the better bullpen compared to Cleveland, but the latter is too good a home team to keep getting held down. They've outscored visitors by 1.4 rpg here at Progressive Field for the season and I believe will get to Tanaka early in thos one. Meanwhile, I look for Bauer to shut the Yankees' bats down. 8* Cleveland |
|||||||
07-14-18 | Cubs -175 v. Padres | Top | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (10:10 ET): I typically don't need much convincing to fade the Padres, but w/ a visit from the Cubs this weekend, their prospects look especially dire. Chicago took last night's series opener, 5-4 (in 10 innings), thanks to a pair of San Diego errors in the decisive frame. After that closer than expected result, I fully anticipate the Cubs to roll this evening. For my money, this is still the best team in the entire National League as they're now not only tied for 1st place in the Central Division, but also have the top run differential (+106). Their tops in runs scored among Senior Circuit clubs while also giving up the fewest runs. The Padres are a bottom five team in baseball when it comes to run differential (-92) and win percentage (.412). Cubs should roll here. As the road team, this is one of the highest money lines of the year for Chicago. But it's more than justifiable. They've won 10 of 13, clearly hitting a "groove," yet they also haven't really been at their "best." That's a pretty scary proposition for the rest of the NL. One player in particular that I expect to have a better second half is tonight's starter Kyle Hendricks. After leading the team in ERA last season (3.03), his team start record is a money-burning 6-12 so far in '18. But last time out, he more closely resembled the pitcher of 2017 as he held the Giants to only an unearned run over 8 1/3 innings of work. San Diego has been a favorite opponent of Hendricks as five of his six career starts against them have been quality ones and he has a 2.50 ERA and 0.882 WHIP. Even more impressive is that he's averaged roughly seven innings per start vs. the Padres while limiting them to a .204 average. He's allowed just 12 runs on 29 hits w/ a 41-6 KW ratio in 39 2/3 IP. Petco Park has a reputation of being "pitcher friendly," but don't tell that to Luis Perdomo, who will toe the rubber tonight for the home team. Perdomo has an 11.57 ERA and 2.571 WHIP in three starts here this season and quite frankly he's been no better when he takes his act out on the road. The team has won just one of his six starts this season and that was back in April, against Houston of all teams (was +240 on the ML!). His last start was not good as he gave up six runs on 10 hits and had no strikeouts. Since returning to the rotation at the start of this month, Perdomo has three strikeouts against seven walks in 12 2/3 IP. That's simply terrible. Let's also note San Diego has lost three in a row and their anemic offense has averaged just 3.0 rpg over the L8 contests. 8* Chi Cubs |
|||||||
07-14-18 | A's v. Giants -112 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (10:05 ET): Last night, we were able to get what I felt was an outstanding price on Madison Bumgarner & the Giants. Oakland came in hot, but MadBum extinguished them w/ six innings of one-run ball (on just three hits) and the Giants' offense poured it on late, making it a 7-1 final. That was just the A's sixth loss in their L25 games as they came into this battle of Bay Area teams having just taken three of four from the Astros (in Houston!). But last night's loss could prove to be a costly one as All-Star 2B Jed Lowrie bruised his leg and now his status for next week's Midsummer Classic is even up in the air (currently listed as "day to day"). As I said in yday's analysis, the Giants have been a really strong home team this year (now 31-17) and I'll take 'em again Saturday night. While we obviously won't have Bumgarner to lean on again here, I still think starter Jeff Samardzija can get it done against an A's lineup that could be w/o Lowrie and certainly w/o a designated hitter (NL park). Don't necessarily focus in on the former Notre Dame wide receiver's numbers, or the fact he comes into tonight on six-start losing skid. Obviously, neither of those things are good, but Oakland starter Brett Anderson has numbers that are just as bad. Samardzija missed more than a month before coming back exactly a week ago to face St. Louis. Even though the Giants lost, he gave up just the three runs and 53 of his 81 pitches were strikes. Regardless if Lowrie plays, the A's lineup will not be as strong as per usual here. Anderson comes off a strong outing where he tossed five scoreless innings vs. Cleveland. But, that's not at all indicative of how he's pitched for most of this season. Anderson has a 1.771 WHIP in his five starts and is not exactly an "innings-eater." He's also just 2-4 w/ a 4.53 ERA in nine career starts vs. SF. I firmly believe that the A's are bound to "cool off" heading into the All-Star Break as they've been a clear overachiever of late. In fact, both of these teams have won more games than they "should" (going by run differential). But it has been Oakland "playing above its head" more so lately and I see them continuing to regress back towards the mean. 8* San Francisco |
|||||||
07-14-18 | Yankees v. Indians -105 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (7:15 ET): At long last, the Indians stopped their losing streak to the Yankees (at 7 games) last night. It was a streak that dated back to LY's infamous ALDS where the Tribe blew a 2-0 series advantage. Friday's win didn't come easy though as the suspect bullpen gave up a pair of runs to make it a one-run final. But considering I was on 'em, I'll take it, and will come right back w/ Cleveland again tonight. The Yankees' advantages in the bullpen aside, the Indians are the highest scoring home team in all of baseball at 6.1 runs per game. They can nullify that "bullpen disadvantage" again by jumping out to a nice lead, similar to last night. Seven-plus strong innings from starter Shane Bieber also helped big-time last night. I expect something similar here from Mike Clevinger, who threw 7 1/3 innings at Yankee Stadium back on May 6th. Though he ended up w/ a no-decision (Indians lost 7-4), Clevinger allowed only two runs and also finished w/ 10 strikeouts, which - at the time - marked a season-high. Lately, Clevinger has been a strikeout machine though. He's had 10 or more K's in three of his last five outings, including tying a season-high w/ 11 his last time out. He did allow five runs (also tied for a season-high), but I expect a bounce back in that department here. I say that knowing full well that Clevinger has dropped B2B home starts only one time all season and that was back in late April/early May. It will be a familiar face opposing the Indians tonight as CC Sabathia gets the starting nod for New York. Sabathia pitched here in Cleveland for many years and still ranks in the top five in their franchise history for wins and strikeouts. But the hefty lefty had a rough go of it his last time out, giving up five runs in five innings against Baltimore. That was the second time in five starts that Sabathia lost as a monster (i.e north of -200) favorite on the ML. His L7 starts have all stayed Under, but that's not necessarily due to great pitching as he a 1.305 WHIP during that time. He also has a 4.42 ERA on the road this year. The Indians are one of the few teams in baseball that can outslug the Yankees and that's precisely what I think they'll do Saturday night in front of a national television audience. 10* Cleveland |
|||||||
07-13-18 | A's v. Giants -150 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (10:15 ET): The way I see it, the Giants have a number of significant edges coming into this first battle of 2018 between the two Bay Area teams. One is that they had Thursday off. Two is Madison Bumgarner. Three is that they are catching the A's off the "emotional high" of taking three of four from the Astros (in Houston!) in the previous series. Oakland definitely qualifies as a "surprise" at this point and their numbers away from home (average 5.5 rpg!) are downright shocking. But I anticipate Bumgarner holding them in check here and the Giants are a profitable 30-17 at home. Good price on MadBum given the circumstances. This was the second straight season where Bumgarner began the year on the DL. But he came back earlier than he did in 2017 and the big difference is the Giants aren't already in a huge hole. In fact, they're actually players in the playoff picture w/ a 49-46 record, which is just four games back of the 2nd Wild Card. The fact they've done that despite going only 3-4 in Bumgarner starts is pretty impressive as far as I'm concerned. Note though that while they are just 3-4 in MadBum's seven starts, that includes a 3-1 mark here at home w/ the pitcher turning in a 2.05 ERA and 0.987 WHIP in those four outings. Last time out, he got away w/ giving up four runs as the Giants wound up beating the Cardinals 13-8. Considering he'd allowed 3 ER or fewer in each of his four outings before that, not to mention all but one of the first six, I'd expect him to be even sharper tonight. The A's have won 13 of 16 after shocking taking three of four in Houston to start the week. But I firmly believe this team is due to come back down to Earth, sooner rather than later. Not sure I trust Edwin Jackson despite the 3-0 TSR as the veteran has been getting plenty of run support so far. That run support may not be so much tonight as Oakland loses the DH from its normal batting order. Jackson had more walks (4) than K's (3) his last time out as well. Give me the Giants in this one. 8* San Francisco |
|||||||
07-13-18 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -126 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -126 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Both of these teams have been locked in fierce battles for the top spot in their respective divisions since the start of the 2018 season. But even though they should be considered the "upstart," Atlanta is the club whose prospects I prefer more, moving forward. Part of that is they don't have to contend w/ the hard-charging Dodgers, like Arizona does. But I'll also note the Braves' run differential which has been at or near the top of the Senior Circuit for much of this year. For tonight's series opener, they have a nice edge in that they were off yday (D'backs were in Colorado. Plus, it's a home game and they look to have the better starting pitcher going. Both teams currently are one-half game out of first place, but after tonight it'll be just the Braves that have a chance to move back into that top spot. Atlanta comes in having lost six of eight. However, most of that damage was done on the road against Milwaukee and the Yankees. They had to settle for a split w/ Toronto to open this homestand, winning Tuesday by score of 9-5. That was their highest scoring effort of this month, which is a good sign. On the other side of the ledger, they'll send Anibal Sanchez to the mound. Sanchez, who took a shutout into the 7th inning in his last start, has the best team start record on the staff (7-3) and has a 2.86 ERA and 1.023 WHIP in those 10 starts. He's been even better at home as his WHIP drops all the way down to 0.882. I'd now like to reiterate something I've pointed out before and that's Arizona has one of the lowest team batting averages in all of baseball (currently 28th at .231). I fully expect Sanchez to hold them in check. Arizona's Zack Godley has a misleading 11-7 TSR when you consider he has a 4.85 ERA and 1.556 WHIP. His numbers predictably get even worse on the road (5.82, 1.765) and are not befitting a pitcher w/ a winning record. Godley is off a solid effort his last time out, but that was against the last place Padres and at home. He really hasn't faced a great - or even good - offense of late and Atlanta comes in averaging nearly five full runs per game at home. The Braves are 4th in team batting average (.260) and top six in runs scored, OBP and slugging. The D'backs have dropped 9 of 13 after being outscored 24-3 the L2 days by Colorado. 10* Atlanta |
|||||||
07-12-18 | Dodgers -185 v. Padres | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): The Dodgers bounced back from a loss on Tuesday night, beating the Padres last night by a score of 4-2. Now they can take the series and I think that they will. San Diego simply isn't a team that you should fear as their perennial offensive woes (currently rank 27th or lower in runs scored, team batting average, OBP & slugging) have them w/ a bottom five run differential in all of baseball (-90). On the flip side, the Dodgers remain far more formidable than their (50-42) record shows as they not only have the best run differential in the division (+79), but are also #2 in that department in the entire N.L. (trailing only the Cubs). The Dodgers should pretty easily make it three out of four over the lowly Padres tonight. The Dodgers now own an 8-4 edge in the season series w/ the Padres and have won 34 of their last 50 games overall. Last night, they got a strong start from Kenta Maeda and tonight will give the baseball to Ross Stripling, who was just added to the NL All-Star team. Stripling is 7-2 w/ a 2.22 ERA in 24 appearances this season, 13 of those being starts. Perhaps the most impressive thing about him is a 103-13 KW ratio. Stripling has certainly been a major surprise in a Dodgers' rotation that has dealt w/ injuries and thus needed someone to step up. His last time out, he went six innings and held the Angels to just one run and three hits in what was the Dodgers' lone victory in that series. He also beat the Padres back on 5.25, allowing just an unearned run in 6 2/3 innings, while striking out a season-best 10. If he had enough innings to qualify, Stripling would be #2 in ERA in the entire Senior Circuit. Stripling will be opposed by Tyson Ross here. Ross has been the subject of much trade discussion, given the Padres aren't going anywhere. But he's certainly done a lousy job of auditioning. His L3 starts have produced a 11.77 ERA and 2.077 WHIP after he allowed eight runs in just two innings his last time out. He allowed seven runs in five innings his start before that. Ross does have 10 quality starts under his belt, but the recent decline is concerning, not just because it devalues him as a potential trade target, but also because there are known health concerns that could be rearing their ugly head one again. After surgery last year, he posted a 7.71 ERA in 12 starts for the Texas Rangers. He didn't have a single strikeout in his last start and the Dodgers have given him all sorts of trouble throughout his career as he's 0-7 against them (.265 average). Again, this should be a pretty easy one for the road team, who is +1.1 rpg on the road this season (SD -1.0 rpg at home). 8* LA Dodgers |
|||||||
07-12-18 | Yankees v. Indians +100 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): This just might be the lowest price I've ever seen on Corey Kluber and he's pitching at home, no less! Now a situation such as this is not w/o reason and in this instance the reason is Luis Severino will be pitching for the visting Yankees. Severino happens to be the most profitable pitcher in all of baseball this season (+13.2 units) thanks to a remarkable 17-2 team start record. But the irony here is that Kluber has the lower WHIP (0.879 to 0.965) as well as a comparable ERA (2.49 vs. 2.12) despite having a far "worse" 12-7 TSR (team is 0-3 when Kluber does not factor into the decision). Severino is 14-2 personally w/ NY going 3-0 when he doesn't factor into the decision. As great as Severino has been, the price on Kluber (at home!) is simply too good to pass up and the Indians have revenge here, not only from a three-game sweep back in early May (at Yankee Stadium), but also LY's ALDS. Heading into October of last year, Cleveland was the betting favorite to win the American League and possibly its first World Series since 1948. (At one point, they won 22 straight games). But it was not to be. Despite taking a 2-0 series lead over the Yankees in the LDS, they met their match, never winning again and getting eliminated in a winner-take-all Game 5. Kluber played a significant role in the Indians coming up short in that series. After being bailed out in Game 1 (he allowed six runs in just 2 2/3 IP, but Cleveland won 9-8), he allowed three runs in 3 2/3 IP in the decisive Game 5. He did not face the Yankees back in May when the Indians were swept. Now he comes in looking to snap his team's six game losing streak in this battle of AL titans. Kluber had one bad start at the end of July (at St. Louis, an unfamiliar park to him), but since then has been his usual dominant self. Last time out, he held Oakland scoreless over seven innings, improving to 7-1 at home where his ERA/WHIP are 1.43/0.797 for the season. Though they were eliminated here at Progressive Field last October, the other five losses Cleveland has taken against the Yankees during this head to head skid have come up in NY. Here at home, I say they still have the advantage, Kluber or not. The Tribe is an impressive 29-17 at Progressive Field this season and are the second highest scoring home team in all of baseball (5.9 rpg) after scoring 19 times in a bludgeoning of the Reds last night. That rout sets them up well here and should definitely scare Severino, who wasn't all that sharp on the road (at Toronto) his last time out anyway. Despite his team still getting the win, he gave up two home runs and lasted only five innings. 8* Cleveland |
|||||||
07-12-18 | Brewers v. Pirates -128 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (7:10 ET): I liked the Pirates in this matchup from the start, but with Milwaukee being taken into extra innings by Miami last night (lost 5-4 in 12), it becomes even stronger. The Bucs wrapped up their series w/ Washington earlier in the day (afternoon) and did so w/ a 2-0 shutout, making it three wins in their last four games overall. Whereas their last two series (Washington and Philadelphia) saw them come in w/ revenge for prior sweeps, this one is a bit of a different situation. This will be a five-game series (w/ a doubleheader on Saturday) as the teams have a game to make up from last month. Pittsburgh has played the Brew Crew tough this season, taking three of the five head to head matchups. Make it one more after tonight. The Milwaukee bats have not performed all that well against Pittsburgh pitching, scoring just three runs total in the previous three head to head matchup and getting shutout twice. The Pirate pitcher responsible for all three of those runs allowed is Jameson Taillon and he'll get the baseball tonight. Despite a 1-4 career record vs. Milwaukee, I expect him to pitch well here. And why wouldn't I given that he's gone eight consecutive starts w/o allowing more than three earned runs. He has a WHIP that's much better than his ERA (especially at home) and the former is the more important stat, IMO. I think it speaks volumes that the Bucs are favored over the first place team in their division here and the line is climbing! Milwaukee counters w/ journeyman Wade Miley, who will be making his first start in over two months. He's started only twice all season (2-0 TSR) and has a a 1.42 ERA + a 1.264 WHIP. But in his case, the WHIP isn't nearly as impressive as the ERA. He also really has just one "true" start under his belt so far in '18. That's because he left the second (5.8 vs. Cleveland) after recording just one out due to suffering the oblique injury. It's tough to trust pitchers making their 1st start after a long stint on the DL and I'm "doubly" suspicious over Miley. I'm also not yet sold on the Brewers as a whole as they lead the division over a Cubs team that has a vastly superior run differential. Not sure Milwaukee finishes the year in first place or is even there going into the All-Star Break! 10* Pittsburgh |
|||||||
07-11-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -134 | Top | 2-19 | Win | 100 | 19 h 12 m | Show |
10* Colorado (8:40 ET): For a fourth straight time, the Rockies lost to the D'backs last night, all of those losses occurring here at Coors Field. They were swept here a month ago and last night dropped a 5-3 decision after a back-breaking four run seventh by Arizona. It's not like starter Tyler Anderson didn't do his job (as I thought he would). Anderson went six innings and allowed just one run on three hits. But a high-pitch count (109) resulted in an early exit and the bullpen blew it from there. Though there's no Anderson tonight, I'm still willing to back the Rockies here at home as the revenge angle remains in play and they'll be facing a pitcher that has struggled mightily so far in 2018. Shelby Miller's season didn't get underway until a couple of weeks ago. The starter tonight for Arizona was coming off Tommy John surgery, which robbed him of more than a full year of action. Quite simply, Miller has not been the same pitcher he was before the surgery. In three starts this year, he has a 9.00 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. He's allowed at least five runs in every start, never lasting longer than 5 1/3 innings. Coors Field is obviously not the most likely place for a pitcher to rectify these kind of issues. Even worse is who Miller has faced since his return: the Marlins, Padres and Giants, three of the worst hitting teams in the entire National League. As per usual, the Rockies are one of the highest scoring home teams in all of baseball (5.2 rpg) and should take full advantage of this opportunity to knock around Miller tonight. No German Marquez isn't exactly having a Cy Young worthy campaign for the Rockies either. But, unlike Miller, he's recently shown signs of turning things around. In his last two starts, Marquez is 2-0 w/ a 1.29 ERA and 14-0 KW ratio. Granted, both were on the road, but he did beat two quality teams in the Dodgers and Mariners. The two runs he allowed over those L2 starts both came via solo home run. Incredibly, Arizona has won nine straight times here at Coors Field, which is the longest losing streak the Rockies have had against any opponent in the history of this venue. I say it comes to an end tonight as I still question a D'backs offense that ranks 28th in team batting average. 10* Colorado |
|||||||
07-11-18 | Phillies v. Mets -151 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 42 m | Show |
8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): We're back to Jacob deGrom here as previously stated, I believe he's due to experience far better results moving forward. Perhaps there has been no more "hard luck" pitcher in baseball to this point as deGrom is saddled w/ a 7-11 TSR despite leading all of MLB in ERA (1.79) and ranking third in WHIP (0.99). Last time out, I had him, and he delivered a season-high eight innings of work while allowing just one run. The Mets actually won the game too, 5-1 over the red-hot Rays. It was the second straight time I'd taken deGrom and come away w/ a winning ticket as back on 6.18, he again went eight innings in a 12-2 win over Colorado. I'll keep riding him until that misleading record is rectified as this is simply one of the top pitchers in all of baseball. The Phillies are in first place this late in the season for the first time since 2011. Note they'd finish that season w/ 102 wins. I do not expect this year's club to maintain that kind of pace moving forward as they've actually been slight overachievers so far. Note that despite a 51-39 record, the Phils have a run differential (+25) that's actually inferior to that of the third place Nationals! They've been fortunate to go 19-8 in one-run games this season, not to mention 6-2 in extra innings. After splitting a doubleheader w/ the Mets on Monday, they won 7-3 last night, but still remain sub-.500 on the road for the season (21-23). They've also traditionally struggled against deGrom, who is 6-1 w/ a 2.74 ERA in 12 career matchups. Pitching opposite deGrom here will be Vince Velasquez, who is coming off a short stint on the DL. The Mets have not been Velasquez's favorite opponent by any means as he's just 1-3 w/ a 4.61 ERA in six career matchups. Velasquez suffered a bruised forearm on 6.30 vs. Washington when was hit by a comebacker. Though it was a short stint, I'm always worried about a pitcher in his first start back after spending time on the DL. Their rhythm (important!) has obviously been interrupted. I just don't think Velasquez is a guy who can hold the Mets in check the way that is required to beat deGrom. Yes, the run support has been lousy all season, but deGrom has allowed just 53 hits total in his L10 starts (71 IP) w/ a 86-15 KW ratio and 1.77 ERA. 8* NY Mets |
|||||||
07-11-18 | Nationals -128 v. Pirates | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -128 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
8* Washington (12:35 ET): The Nats won yday, 5-1, thereby squaring away this series at a game each. For today's rubber match, they'll send Gio Gonzalez to the bump. Despite being just a game over .500 currently, the Nats own a run differential (+31) that is actually superior to the first place team in their own division (Phillies). So I'm anticipating a resurgence here and we've already started to see a bit of that as the took the first three games of their last series against the sorry Marlins. As for Pittsburgh, they've been trending in the opposite direction lately, dropping 7 of their last 10. Washington has had their number this seaosn, taking five of the six head to head meetings so far and I expect Wednesday to be no different. Both starters here have poor numbers over their last three starts, but in Gonzalez's case, that can be attributed to one off outing. Back on 6.25, he lasted just an inning while giving up six runs against Tampa Bay. But since then, he's bounced back w/ B2B decent efforts. Each started lasted only five innings, but Gonzalez gave up just five runs total. Still winless over his L6 starts, today is poised to "be the day" for Gonzalez as he's 4-1 lifetime vs. Pittsburgh. This particular edition of the Pirates came into yday averaging just 3.6 runs over its last seven games and failed to even hit that benchmark on Tuesday. Bucs' starter Trevor Williams is off his shortest outing of 2018, having made it only 2 1/3 innings while giving up five runs. The end result was a 17-5 loss to Philadelphia. That poor performance came on the heels of him allowing four runs in 4 2/3 innings to a bad San Diego team. Williams is 1-5 w/ a 7.02 ERA his L9 starts and his one career start vs. Washington didn't go that well as he allowed three runs in 5 2/3 innings. The Nats won that game 3-1 and swept the series. They are simply the better team here and I believe will take the series. 8* Washington |
|||||||
07-10-18 | Dodgers -150 v. Padres | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -150 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): Last night's 8-2 win (behind six shutout innings from Clayton Kershaw) only re-emphasized the likelihood that the Dodgers wil roll over the Padres in this series. At least, that's my view on things as LA should continue its push to the top of the NL West while San Diego is destined to remain at the bottom. Dodger Blue is better than its record as they've now outscored opponents by 80 runs over the course of the season. Among NL teams, only the Cubs have a greater run differential. The Padres have the second WORST run differential in the Senior Circut (-91) and are the only team "out of it" in the NL West. Recent form mirrors long-term results as well w/ LA winning six of eight and San Diego dropping six of its last eight. The Dodgers have been a strong road team this year, averaging 5.3 rpg and outscoring foes by an impressive 1.2 rpg. With those kind of numbers, you'd expect them to have a better record than 22-17 away from home. They did just drop two of three this past weekend to the Angels (were the road team), but before that it was a dominant three-game sweep of the Pirates, whom they outscored 31-8 in three games. Starting tonight will be Rich Hill, who believe it or not has just two wins in his 10 starts. But one of those came his last time out as he held the Pirates to two runs in what ended up being a 7-4 final. Hill has been really strong in three of his four starts since coming off the DL, particularly on 6.29 vs. Colorado. This sets up as one of his easier starts of the season considering San Diego is bottom four in all of MLB in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging. The Padres don't exactly enjoy a strong homefield advantage either. They are 19-26 at Petco Park and getting outscored by an average of 1.2 rpg. They've really struggled against Hill in the past, hitting just .184 off him. Hill has averaged 11.12 K's per nine innings in his career vs. SD while posting a 3.18 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. The Padres counter w/ Eddie Lauer, who has been much improved over the last month or so, but it's also hard to look past those first two months of the season when his ERA was a ghastly 7.67. He also still owns a 1.761 WHIP for the season. San Diego is just 3-7 vs. the Dodgers this season and clearly are the inferior side here. Let's take advantage of a curiously low price on the road team in this one. 8* LA Dodgers |
|||||||
07-10-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -105 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
10* Colorado (8:40 ET): This is a revenge spot for the Rockies, who were swept by the D'backs - here at Coors Field - last month. Though the Rockies' record here at Coors is not as good as it probably ought to be, I just can't see Arizona coming in and winning a fourth straight time here. Though the D'backs are in first place in the NL West, it is the Rockies that come into this series as the hotter team, having won 8 of 10. Arizona just had to settle for a split w/ last place San Diego, even though that series was at home. Overall, the D'backs have dropped 7 of 10. It's a battle of hot starting pitchers on Monday, but ultimately home field advantage and the revenge factor should prevail. Tyler Anderson will lead the Rockies into battle tonight. While he hasn't fared all that well at home this season (2-6 TSR), there's no denying how good he's been lately. He comes into tonight working on a 16-inning scoreless streak, having gone 8 innings in B2B starts while allowing a total of just six hits (17-3 KW ratio). And Anderson's last start was here at Coors as he held the Giants to just two hits in a dominant effort. He's had four really strong efforts over his L6 starts overall, allowing three runs total on 17 hits. Though this ballpark can obviously have a dramatic impact on a team's hitting, it should be noted that the D'backs come in sporting the third lowest batting average in MLB, both overall (.231) and on the road (.225). I realize they swept here last month, but I wouldn't bank on them taking full advantage of the "Coors effect" necessarily. Of course, the Rockies do allow the highest average of runs per game at home in all of baseball. But that is to be expected. It will be more interesting to observe how Arizona's Pat Corbin (0.95 ERA, 0.842 WHIP L3 starts) performs here tonight. Corbin has a 4.68 ERA in 17 career starts vs. Colorado and it's been awhile since he pitched here (last season). Note that it's been some hard luck lately for Corbin as those L3 starts have all been no-decisions for him and the team has lost twice. Before that, he had given up five or more runs three times in four starts. So the expectation for here is probably somewhere in between and like I said earlier, I just can't see the Rockies dropping another home game to their division rival. 10* Colorado |
|||||||
07-09-18 | Royals v. Twins -197 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
6* Minnesota (8:10 ET): Kansas City is on another long losing streak (nine games) and it sure doesn't look like it'll end tonight as they are substantial underdogs to the division rival Twins. In case you've been sleeping under a rock, the Royals are a very bad team, my choice for the worst in all of baseball as they've already been outscored by a mind-blowing 186 runs this season. The current losing skid is already their sixth of five games or more, not to mention their third nine-game losing streak. They've yet to drop 10 in a row, so they have that going for them, but that ends after tonight as I see them being no match for Jose Berrios, who has been outstanding here at home all season. The Twins come in hot having just swept Baltimore (4-game series) over the weekend. Berrios has a 7-2 team start record here at Target Field w/ a 2.93 ERA and 0.857 WHIP. Aside from one bad start at Wrigley Field (unfamiliar setting), he had himself an outstanding month of June overall and started July w/ a quality outing against Milwaukee. Unfortunately though, three of the five hits he allowed (in 7 IP) were solo home runs and the Twins lost the game 3-2. But I don't see the long-ball being an issue here considering Berrios has allowed all of four at home all season and the Royals are dead last in all of baseball w/ just 70 HR's total. Berrios did not get to face the Royals when the Twins dropped two of three in KC back in late May. Minnesota's offense woke up yday, scoring 10 runs as they finished off the sweep of Baltimore. Having a home stand that includes the Orioles and Royals (both last place teams) is a pretty ideal situation, if you ask me. It's one the Twins simply MUST take advantage of, if they are to remain relevant in the AL Central. Facing Danny Duffy tonight helps too as the Royals lefty has not been good this year w/ a 4-8 record in 18 starts to go along w/ a 5.19 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Duffy allowed six runs in six innings his last tine out, a 6-4 loss to Cleveland. He actually has a strong track record vs. the Twins, but remember the majority of those games came when KC was a better team. The Royals are a stunning 13-40 in night games this season. 6* Minnesota |
|||||||
07-09-18 | Tigers v. Rays -179 | Top | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): In playing AGAINST the Rays over the weekend (technically Friday), I ironically, picked up a lot of respect for what this club has been doing over the L2 months. That fade wound up being a winner on this end as TB lost 5-1 to Jacob deGrom and the Mets. But they quickly bounced back to win in shutout fashion in each of the next two days, dropping their team ERA to 3.56, fifth best in all of MLB. They're actually #1 in that category since mid-May and that coincides w/ the time that skipper Kevin Cash decided to use relievers as starters, "openers" as he calls them. Winners of 11 of their last 15 overall, the Rays get (perhaps) their best starter back for Monday, that being Chris Archer. I see his return being a glorious one as TB should roll the Tigers in this one. Archer had been pitching well before landing on the DL (abdominal strain), giving up just 3 ER in 23 2/3 IP. He hasn't been supported much by his offense, which is why the team start record remains subpar (6-7). Case in point, he faced these Tigers back in May and despite giving up two runs in 6 IP, took the loss. But w/ Detroit in a very bad way of late (dropped 15 of 19), expect a much different result here. The Tigers were shutout Sunday (3-0 by Texas) and have scored three runs or fewer in 7 of the last 10 games. The Tampa Bay staff has posted five shutouts in the L15 games. They are allowing just 3.1 rpg at Tropicana Field this year w/ opponents batting .205. The Tigers are a lousy road team (15-29) having been outscored by 1.3 rpg away from home. Detroit will send out Francisco Liriano here and the Rays have not been an ideal opponent for him in the past. Last season alone, he posted a 6.61 ERA in four starts against them. Since '09, he's gone 1-4 vs. the Rays, allowing six home runs in seven starts. The home run ball has continued to be an issue for Liriano recently as well. He gave up two in his last start, increasing his total to six in the last four outings. He has just as many walks (12) as he does strikeouts in his L3 starts. I do not expect the Tigers to score much in this series, tonight in particular, as this is an ideal spot for Archer to return. The Rays have been a sneaky good of team late and that should continue w/ a favorable schedule here in July. 8* Tampa Bay |
|||||||
07-09-18 | Reds v. Indians -164 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -164 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians had a disappointing end to their last series, dropping B2B games to the A's. After losing 6-3 (in 11 innings) on Saturday, they were actually shut out on Sunday (6-0), which is rare for a club which averages an impressive 5.9 rpg at Progressive Field this year (2nd highest scoring home team in all of baseball). It was just the third time all season that they have been blanked. I like their chances of bouncing back tonight though, as they get to stay at home, and welcome in a Reds team that is likely due to regress some after a 14-4 stretch. They too lost Saturday & Sunday (to the Cubs), both coming in excruciating fashion. The trip up I-71 has not been kind for Cincy as they're just 13-28 here in Cleveland since '02, their lowest win percentage in any stadium during that time. More good news for the Indians is that Mike Clevinger will be on the bump tonight. I used Clevinger in his last start and that ended up being a 15-3 win (over the A's). That was a week ago Sunday, so he'll be well-rested for tonight. He's allowed 3 ER or fewer in five consecutive outings and is 4-1 his L7 w/ a 2.80 ERA. Yes, three of the wins came against the lowly White Sox. But I still see him shutting down the Reds. Plus, just like we saw in his last start, he should be getting plenty of run support here. The fact that Cleveland is #2 in all of MLB in rpg at home is obviously a big reason why they have a 28-15 record here at Progressive Field. It's difficult to imagine them dropping three in a row at home. The Reds are an inexplicable 8-2 in Interleague Play this season, but as mentioned before, Cleveland has not been an ideal spot for them through the years. I should also mention that the Reds' success in IL play this season has come about due to taking on a terrible AL Central. Other than the Indians, everyone in that division is destined to finish below .500 w/ the White Sox and Royals both being really bad. Anthony DeSclafani gets the starting nod Monday and while he's gone 3-1 in six starts, he has an ERA of 5.08. That number has actually worsened lately w/ him allowing nine runs in his last two starts, which have spanned just 11 2/3 innings. He gave up three home runs in his last start, which was an Interleague LOSS to the White Sox. The Indians are #2 overall in HR's hit at home this season. 8* Cleveland |
|||||||
07-08-18 | Rockies v. Mariners -136 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
10* Seattle (4:10 ET): I've made my lack of affinity for these Mariners well-known this season, citing an unsustainable 26-11 record in one-run games (also 8-0 in extra innings!). That extremely good fortune (generally speaking, a team's record in one-run games should be close to .500) helps explain how this team has started 56-34 despite outscoring its opponents by just 15 runs this season, a differential that isn't all that different than the division mates (A's, Angels) chasing them even though those teams are 6.5 & 11 games back, respectively. Seattle's difference between actual and expected wins is the largest in all of baseball and in terms of overachieving, no one else is close. However, this series has not been kind to them w/ Colorado coming in and taking the first two games. The Rockies are another team I feel isn't quite as good as its record. The difference may not be as pronounced as Seattle, but given they've been outscored by 25 runs this season, Colorado should feel lucky to currently have a winning record. They're on a five-game win streak entering Sunday. The fact that they've been able to come in here and win twice at Safeco Field surprises me because it's not like the Rockies' offense typically does much outside of Coors Field. It's obviously been the pitching that's carried them in wins of 7-1 and 5-1, plus this five-game win streak has seen them allow just five runs total. I don't see that continuing here though, even though scheduled starter Antonio Senzatela pitched well his first time out. On Tuesday, he threw seven scoreless innings of three-hit ball against the Giants. However, last year (his rookie season) saw him not fare well against the Mariners as he gave up four runs in five innings. That was here in Safeco. Both of Seattle's runs in this series have come by solo home runs. Meanwhile, Colorado has taken full advantage of having the designated hitter in their lineup, getting six RBI's from the #9 hitter. This while the top of the order has gone a combined 0 for 14. The Mariners' rotation has obviously overachieved massively so far this season and one of the biggest contributors has been today's starter, Wade LeBlanc, who is unbeaten in 12 starts (4-0) w/ all four wins (9-3 TSR) coming here at home. Last time out, he held the Angels to just one run here as the team has now won all seven times he's started at Safeco Field. He has a 1.80 ERA and 0.90 WHIP here, so there's really nothing phony about that record. Colorado is just 11-20 in day games, while Seattle is 9-2 as a home fave in the -125 to -175 price range. 10* Seattle |
|||||||
07-08-18 | Phillies v. Pirates -127 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (1:35 ET): Well. We're down to one last shot here. Despite the fact the line was not posted until late in the A.M. (Philly pitching change), I'm unwavering in my belief that the Bucs are due to break through here against the Phillies. It certainly appeared they were set to do so yday as they entered the seventh inning w/ a 2-0 lead. But that is when the "wheels came off" and Philly ended up taking the lead (for good), 3-2. The Pirates are now 0-6 head to head w/ the Phils this season and there's no denying the two clubs have been trending in opposite directions. But I don't see the home team getting swept here. Philadelphia has won six in a row and is tied w/ Atlanta (actually percentage points ahead) for first place in the NL East. But this team has hardly been dominant as its run differential for the year is just +23 and that includes a 17-6 win in the opener of this series. That run diff actually ranks seventh among all NL teams. Yesterday was their 19th one-run win of the season (against only seven losses) and they've also been fortunate enough to go 6-1 in extra innings. All three runs scored yday came w/ two outs in the inning. They'll start Drew Anderson today, calling him from Triple-A for his 1st big league start ever. He did make two relief appearances LY at this level and while he can claim to have struck out Mike Trout, he also allowed seven runs in just 2 1/3 IP. That works out to a hideous 23.14 ERA. Pittsburgh will go w/ a rookie Nick Kingham, whose last start was certainly one to forget. Kingham allowed three home runs and when all was said and done gave up seven runs in just three innings as the team went onto lose 17-1 to the Dodgers. Incredibly, the Pirates have now been outscored 24-1 in Kingham's L3 starts. But he has pitched well in three starts at PNC Park this year, posting a 2.89 ERA and 0.911 WHIP. The Pirates have dropped five in a row overall, but I will point out that Philadelphia still has a losing road record this year. 8* Pittsburgh |
|||||||
07-08-18 | Yankees -158 v. Blue Jays | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
8* NY Yankees (1:07 ET): The Yanks evened this series up at a game apiece by beating the Blue Jays yday, 8-5. Now they go for the series win and that's important to note due to the fact they've won 19 of the previous 23 series w/ two of the non-successful ones coming against Washington. While they've "slipped" to two games back of the rival Red Sox in the AL East, New York has still gone 48-20 its L68 games overall, a win streak which ironically began w/ a pair of wins over Toronto. Now yday's victory was not w/o casualities as Aaron Hicks left in the fifth inning w/ a leg cramp and more concerning was closer Aroldis Chapman exiting due to the recurring knee issue he's been battling. However, if there's one bullpen in baseball that can overcome such an injury (it's day to day), it's this one and Chapman's absence shouldn't matter if the Yankees have another big lead by the ninth. The Yankees are now 8-4 vs. Toronto this season, including 5-3 here North of the Border. It's already their most successful season at Rogers Center since '09. Today, they send out Domingo German, who will be making his 11th start of the season. While his ERA isn't great, German has typically done a fine job at limiting runs and also has a 1.237 WHIP. He also has a 36-5 KW ratio his L5 starts. This Yankees' pitching staff has done a remarkable job on the road this season, limiting opposing hitters to a .218 average and just 3.7 runs per game. This being a day game is nice too as the Yankees are now 20-7 in such affairs this season. Toronto will send out Ryan Borucki to be a starter for just the third time this season. His first two have been OK, but he did have more walks than strikeouts in the first one and the team has lost both games. This is a tough spot for Borucki facing the team w/ the best record in baseball (22-7) against southpaws. The Yankees are averaging an amazing 5.1 rpg against LH starters. They are also top five overall in runs scored, OBP and slugging. The Blue Jays have pretty much been the definition of mediocrity this season and I just don't see them getting the job done here. 8* NY Yankees |
|||||||
07-07-18 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -190 | Top | 5-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
6* Arizona (10:10 ET): Admittedly, I've been somewhat of a "jinx" for the D'backs recently as three times in their last five games I've taken them, only to come up empty every time (they won the other two games). Last night could have been a turning point, however, as they took care of the lowly Padres 3-1 and should roll the rest of this series. The fact that there are multiple teams clearly worse than San Diego this year is surprising as I figured they'd challenge for baseball's worst record, coming into the season. However, make no mistake about it, they're still quite bad and a pop-gun offense w/ a struggling starter is not the recipe to beat the first place team in your division. Go w/ the D'backs here. Arizona is just 2-6 on its current 10-game homestand, a record which obviously must improve if they are to stay in front of the surging Dodgers. Meanwhile, San Diego has dropped 14 of its last 18 games. Admittedly, the Padres' best hitter (Wil Myers) sat out yday, but it's not like the offense has been exceptional (or even good) w/ him in the lineup this year. They're 27th or lower in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging. Thus, they are an ideal matchup for Arizona starter Robbie Ray to get back on track after a rough outing his last time out. Ray was hit hard, giving up six runs in just five innings vs. St. Louis Monday, but note that his start before that one was exceptional. It was his return from a two-month stint on the DL and he held Miami scoreless for six innings, giving up just two hits. Just like the Marlins, the Padres are an anemic last place team. San Diego's Tyson Ross gave up three home runs and seven runs total in his last start, which was a 7-5 loss to the Pirates. He'd made three consecutive quality starts, all on the road ironically enough, prior to that. The team has gone 11-6 in Ross' 17 starts this season, but that includes a 6-0 mark when he doesn't factor into the decision. So he's been bailed out quite a bit so far. But against this Arizona bullpen, I can't see that being the case here tonight. The D'backs' pen has the top ERA in all of baseball (2.54), which obviously bodes well for them moving forward. For the season, this team allows only 3.8 runs per game. 6* Arizona |
|||||||
07-07-18 | Phillies v. Pirates -124 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -124 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (4:05 ET): Thanks to the late innings, the Pirates ended up being humiliated last night by the Phillies, losing the series opener by a score of 17-5. It was their fifth straight loss to the Phils this season, going back to a four-game sweep they suffered in Philly back in April. But I believe they'll get their revenge tonight behind Jameson Taillon. Last night aside, the Phillies typically are NOT the same team on the road where they've gone only 18-21 for the season. While they've now won five straight as well as seven of the last eight, they came into this series batting a collective .219 over the last week. Starter Jake Arrieta got off to a good start in 2018, but it was a bit of a mirage as his number of strikeouts remains low. I'm big on the Bucs today. I'm a little bit skeptical of the Phillies right now. Yes, they now lead the NL East w/ a 48-37 record. But they more than doubled their season run differential yday from +10 to +22. Run differential says this is only a "45-win team" as they've been - by far - luckier than the Braves and Nationals, who are their competition in the division. Not only are the Phillies 18-7 in one-run games; they're also 6-1 in extra innings. Obviously, there was nothing "lucky" about yday's result as it was a seven-run seventh that blew things open in what was the longest nine-inning game EVER in National League history! But I wouldn't go looking for a repeat performance any time soon. Arrieta is also 0-4 w/ a 6.16 ERA in his L6 starts and has as 1.542 WHIP for the year away from home. The team is 2-5 in his seven road starts thus far. While the Phillies have been trending in one direction, the Pirates have been going the opposite way lately. They've now lost four straight and last night marked the second time they've given up 17 runs during that stretch. They were humiliated out in LA to start the week, but I still believe a return home is going to do them some good. They're not as bad they've played recently, just like the Phils aren't as good as they've looked. Taillon has revenge here for an April 19th loss to Arrieta where he was completely outclassed. But that was in the City of Brotherly Love. Taillon hasn't given up more than three runs in seven straight starts. His overall numbers aren't that different from Arrieta and I believe we're in line to see a much different result than what we saw yday. 10* Pittsburgh |
|||||||
07-07-18 | Reds v. Cubs -143 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Inexplicably, the Cubs have now dropped five straight to the Reds. This goes back to a four-game sweep they suffered late last month at Great American Ballpark. I had figured yday at Wrigley was a most opportune time to back them, but instead they forgot to bring the offense, managing only two runs in a series opening loss. That said, the notion that the Reds are going to sweep them again seems illogical given much of the info we discussed yday. The Cubs still own - by far - the National League's best run differential (at +103). They've scored the most while giving up the second fewest. They came into this series on a six-game win streak, averaging 9.6 runs per game, so yday's poor performance at the plate was a little surprising. Cincinnati has played better than .500 ball (36-34) for interim skipper Jim Riggleman, even winning 14 of their last 18 games. But today will NOT be their day. "Matt Harvey Day" does not mean what it used to, but the Mets' refugee has actually pitched quite well of late for the Reds. He's 3-0 w/ a 1.47 ERA and 0.818 WHIP his L3 starts overall. Last time out, he tossed 5 2/3 scoreless innings of two-hit ball against Milwaukee. But just like the Cubs' offense went from a peak to valley real quick yday, we should start to see regression from Harvey very soon. For the season, he's still sporting a 4.42 ERA and that number balloons on the road to 5.49 (not to mention a 1.415 WHIP). Yesterday also marked the first time in nine games the Cubs did NOT score at least five runs. I fully anticipate them finding more success against Harvey than they did yday vs. Tyler Mahle. Tyler Chatwood gets the baseball here for the Cubs and while he's battled control issues all year long (leads MLB w/ 66 walks), we've seen him pitch well. Not his last time out, mind you. He allowed seven runs in five innings to Minnesota, a game which ended up being a wild 14-9 win for the Cubs. But ironically, Chatwood allowed just one run in five innings his previous time out and the Cubs didn't win that one. I realize that the Cubs had to come from behind in all six games during their now-defunct win streak. But armed w/ revenge, they are still the play here as they can't go on losing to a clearly inferior opponent. They remain 26-15 at home this season as well as 26-16 in day games. 8* Chi Cubs |
|||||||
07-06-18 | Rays v. Mets -161 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): Every year, it seems as if there's one good pitcher beseiged by bad luck. For 2018, that pitcher appears to be the Mets' Jacob deGrom. He has a 1.84 ERA and 1.016 WHIP in 17 starts, but only a 6-11 team start record. On the surface, that seems preposterous. Dig not very deep and it's easy to see how this has happened. deGrom gets virtually no run support as the Mets' offense has supplied him w/ no more than three runs in 10 of his last 11 starts. That's brutal especially considering he himself has not allowed more than 3 ER in any of those 11 starts, going at least six innings in each of the last nine! His TSR in those L11 starts is 2-9! I have to believe that better times are ahead for deGrom and I'll jump on him here in what I feel is a good spot. deGrom's last start was pushed back a day, but that was just delaying the inevitable as the Mets lost 5-2 to the Marlins. While deGrom was responsible for three of those Marlins' runs, it's not like the Mets gave him a ton of help. This insipid offense has been a huge reason for the overall tailspin that's hit Queens and seen the team drop 22 of its last 29 games. They are bottom four in both runs scored and batting average. However, this is a good matchup for deGrom w/ the Rays losing the DH from the batting order. Nevermind the TSR, deGrom has a 1.90 ERA and 0.942 WHIP here at Citi Field. Even though they've been winning more than losing of late, the Rays have only averaged 3.1 runs per the L7 games. They are 26th overall in runs scored this year, just one spot above NY, not to mention 26th in slugging as well. The Rays were shutout in their last game, by the way, at the hands of the lowly Marlins. We also need to devote some time and space to the Rays' pitching situation. Back in late May, with a rotation lacking top end talent and hit hard by injuries, a decision was made to start using "openers" (NOT starters!) as in a relief pitcher who would start the game, but only expected to go through the order maybe just one time and the bullpen would take it from there. It has worked better than anyone could have imagined. Since May 19, the Rays have the lowest ERA in all of baseball. Tonight's "opener," Ryne Stanek, has been the most effective of the bunch w/ a 1.42 ERA in the role, though he's never gone longer than 1 2/3 innings. But he's also worked in a traditional relief role of late as well, so you have to wonder if that will have an effect. In what promises to be a pretty low-scoring affair, I'll side with the "traditional" starter here as deGrom simply "deserves" better. 8* NY Mets |
|||||||
07-06-18 | Phillies v. Pirates +105 | Top | 17-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Here's another game on the Friday MLB slate where the home team is playing w/ revenge. In this instance, the Pirates were swept by the Phillies back in April. It was a four-game sweep, in Philadelphia, and was probably the "low point" of a 23-16 start to the season for the Bucs. Since then, things have gone south in a hurry as the club has dropped 30 of its last 47 games. They were just swept out in LA (Dodgers) to start this week, including an embarrassing 17-1 loss on Monday. But now they're back home, which - for this series - is as important as simply NOT being on the road. You see, the Phillies are 30-16 in the City of Brotherly Love this season, but only 17-21 away from home. Despite being 10 games over .500, they've only outscored opponents by 10 runs. I'm on the revenge-minded home team here. While the Pirates are at a low-water mark for the year (six games below .500), the Phillies are a season-best 10 games above .500. The latter has won four in a row and just swept a quickie two-game set from lowly Baltimore. To me, this seems like a classic case of "buy low, sell high," especially w/ Philadelphia just 6-6 this season off three or more consecutive wins. This will be the first time playing away from home for the Phils since late last month (at Washington) as five of their last six series have taken place at home. On the road, offensive numbers dip down to 4.1 runs per game w/ a .230 team batting average. It doesn't help that starter Nick Pivetta has a 5.81 ERA and 1.548 WHIP in seven road starts this year or that he's struggled of late either. Pivetta's last three starts have seen him post a 7.07 ERA and 1.714 WHIP. That has everything to do w/ his last one, as he allowed seven runs in just 1 2/3 innings of what ended up being a 17-7 loss to the Nats. It's the team's only loss in the last seven games. Pivetta was tagged for three home runs and has allowed at least one HR in five straight starts. He also came on in relief Sunday for a 13-inning affair w/ the Nats, so that could have an adverse effect here. As for Pittsburgh's Trevor Williams, he's got a "sneaky good" 0.792 WHIP his L3 starts. If anything, he's been unlucky thanks to a combination of little run support and despite allowing just 10 hits (in 17 2/3 IP), he's given up seven runs. Note that the lineup Williams will be facing tonight is batting only .219 the L7 games, despite going 6-1 during that stretch. The laws of regression are due to take hold in this one. 10* Pittsburgh |
|||||||
07-06-18 | Reds v. Cubs -148 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -148 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Believe it or not, but the last time these NL Central rivals squared off, the end result was a four-game sweep ... by the Reds! Obviously, I expect a bit of different scenario to play out this weekend in Wrigley, starting this afternoon when the home team should exact a little bit of revenge for the aforementioned events of last month. The Reds have been shockingly good over the last month, winning 13 of their last 17 games overall. But here come the Cubs, who enter this series as winners of six straight (trailed in all six!), the last five all coming here at the Friendly Confines. They already had the NL's best run differential before the win streak began and now have outscored their opponents this year by 104 runs. I'm on the Cubs Friday afternoon. Neither team played yesterday. Both also just got done playing an Interleague series, the Cubs' last five wins have come at the expense of Minnesota and Detroit while Cincinnati just took two of three from Detroit. The Cubs have averaged a preposterous 9.6 rpg during the win streak and have now tallied the most runs in the National League. They've scored five or more runs in eight straight games. They've also allowed the second fewest (two more than Brewers), so a pretty good case could be made that this is the best team the Senior Circuit has to offer. They'll start Mike Montgomery here. He has a 2.43 ERA in seven starts and is unbeaten (3-0) at home this year. The Cubs are not only 26-14 at Wrigley this season, but also 26-15 in day games. The Reds have won or tied each of the last five series and scored 5+ runs 14 times during their 13-4 stretch. They scored at least six in all four games vs. the Cubs last month. They've got to be feeling pretty good about themselves heading into this afternoon's contest, knowing that they have Tyler Mahle on the hill as he's gone 3-0 w/ a 2.18 ERA his L6 starts. Mahle turned in a season-best 12 K's his last time out (when I took him) against Detroit. But as good as Mahle and the Reds have looked lately, I still view the Cubs as the vastly superior team here. Playing w/ revenge, I'm on 'em. 8* Chi Cubs |
|||||||
07-05-18 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -139 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -139 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
8* Arizona (9:40 ET): The D'backs now welcome in the Padres after dropping five of six on the current homestand. They just lost two of three to the Cardinals (of course, winning the one where I did NOT take them!), including a frustrating 8-4 setback last night where the bullpen fell apart in the late innings (allowed 7 runs in the seventh/eighth combined). With the Dodgers now "hot on their heels" (0.5 games back in NL West), you have to think Arizona will turn things around at home sooner rather than later. A visit from the lowly Padres seems like a logical spot to start. I certainly don't need much reason to fade San Diego, but the fact they've dropped 13 of 16 and averaged just 3.0 rpg in the L10 only adds to my willingness. What's sad about last night's result for Arizona is that they entered the game w/ the best bullpen ERA in all of MLB. I suspect what we saw vs. St. Louis was more "blip" than "trend" and the reliever will return to dominant form in this series. San Diego, as per usual, has been one of the weakest offensive teams in the league this year. They rank 26th or lower in runs scored, batting average, OBP and slugging. Starting for the D'backs tonight will be Shelby Miller, who has been shaky in his first two starts since returning from the DL (11.42 ERA, 2.076 WHIP). But the "third time should be the charm" here against an opponents he's at least more familiar with. I played against the Padres Wednesday afternoon as they dropped another one in Oakland, this time by a score of 4-2. They turn to Eric Laurer tonight, who was originally set to start yday before Luis Perdomo was called up. Though Laurer had a 2.76 ERA in six June starts, I feel that this is a case of just delaying the inevitable. He has a 5.08 ERA and 1.758 WHIP for the season (13 starts) and a 3-10 TSR. The road has been particularly unkind to him (1-6 TSR) and even with the decent numbers recently, he's still ended up w/ an 0-3 TSR his L3 starts. Though I don't think we'll be seeing Arizona get back to the level they were at during April, they should at least start to turn things around here at Chase Field. Meanwhile, San Diego is simply destined for another last place finish, so let's continue to fade them until further notice. 8* Arizona |
|||||||
07-05-18 | Rangers v. Tigers -110 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
10* Detroit (7:05 ET): Quite honestly, it's been a pretty lousy stretch of baseball recently in the Motor City. The Tigers have lost 13 of 15, including a pair in Chicago (Cubs) to start the week. They did take two in Toronto to start the month, but in terms of success, that's all they've had dating back to 6.18. But I anticipate things will be different this weekend, starting tonight, as they return home to host a last place Texas team. The Rangers also dropped a pair to start the week, at home to Houston, with last night's game going to extra innings. It's always tough to hit the road the day after an extra inning loss and I'm certainly not shy about fading a bad team in this situation. The Tigers have to be thrilled to be back home as they're just 15-29 on the road this year. Here at Comerica Park, they've gone a far more respectable 23-21 and that record was even better before they got swept by Oakland last week. Perhaps the Tiger most excited to be back home will be starter Matthew Boyd. Boyd hasn't exactly pitched "well" of late, turning in a 9.69 ERA and 1.923 WHIP his L3 starts (Tigers lost all three). But all of those were also road games. At home, Boyd has simply been a different pitcher this year w/ a 6-1 TSR to go along w/ a 2.61 ERA and 0.992 WHIP. He did put forth a quality outing his last time out, allowing just three runs on four hits (6 IP) vs. Toronto. He also had seven strikeouts, his most in a start since May 17th. I expect Boyd to pitch well here against a Texas lineup that hits a collective .229 on the road. Somehow, Rangers starter Yovani Gallardo has a 3-0 TSR despite and ERA of 6.12 and WHIP of 1.246. The key has been a ridiculous amt of run support w/ the Rangers scoring a total of 33 runs in those three games! But that's hardly a "blueprint for success" as a pitcher simply cannot count on that level of run support every time out. Tonight is the start of a 10-game road trip for the Rangers (will take them through the All-Star Break), so they better get used to playing on the road. Detroit is the more desperate side here though and w/ manager Ron Gardenhire expected back in the dugout tonight (left yday's game due to heat exhaustion), they should respond "in kind." 10* Detroit |
|||||||
07-04-18 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks -138 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -138 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
8* Arizona (10:10 ET): A somewhat late start in the desert tonight, but the end result should be "worth the wait" for fans of the home team. The D'backs finally snapped a their losing skid here at home (at four games) last night w/ a 4-2 win last night. Both they and St. Louis came into this series having been swept over the weekend, Arizona by the Giants and St. Louis by Atlanta, both at home no less. This series is all even heading into tonight's rubber match on ESPN and I'll be siding w/ the D'backs in a game where it appears that it'll be a matchup of strong starting pitchers, but Pat Corbin has the clear edge in my eyes. Arizona has been very good on the run suppression side of things this season, giving up just 3.7 runs per game. That's the lowest number in the entire National League (only Houston better in all of MLB), thus offsetting the team's surprising subpar offensive numbers (29th in team batting average). But w/ Paul Goldschmidt having turned things around, the lineup should be headed for somewhat of a "midseasons renaissance." Sionce June 1st, Goldschmidt has a .390/.482/.780 slash line and has cut his number of strikeouts way down. Note that despite the low team batting average, Arizona is still 15th in MLB in runs scored. Tonight, they'll face Miles Mikolas, who is unbeaten (4-0) in eight road starts, but took a hard-luck loss (at home) his last time out. Mikolas is right w/ counterpart Corbin in terms of ERA, WHIP and WAR, but is far off the latter's pace in terms of strikeouts. Don't think that doesn't matter and, in fact, Mikolas had just ONE strikeout in 6 2/3 innings his last time out. Meanwhile, Corbin has allowed just 1 ER in his last 13 IP w/ a 17-1 KW ratio. He too was a victim of some "hard-luck" his last time out as he gave up only one run in 6 IP, but the D'backs still lost 2-1 to the Giants. Still, Corbin has a 3.06 ERA and 0.981 WHIP in 17 starts this season and has obviously improved those numbers recently. St. Louis is surprisingly not a strong offensive club this year, ranking in the bottom third in all key categories. Corbin is "due" for some better run support moving forward and I see the D'backs winning this game rather handily. 8* Arizona |
|||||||
07-04-18 | Pirates v. Dodgers -200 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
6* LA Dodgers (7:10 ET): The Dodgers have really beat up on the Pirates this week, outscoring them 25-4 in the series so far (won 17-1 Monday), which I can't really say surprises me. Los Angeles was clearly underperforming for the first three months of the season, but now we (finally!) have signs that they're poised to take control of the NL West. They've got a +72 run differential, which is third best in the entire National League, so even though they wouldn't be a Wild Card team currently, look for the winning to continue. As for Pittsburgh, they've really fallen on hard times. Since opening the year at 23-16, they've dropped 29 of 46, including 9 of their last 13. A pitching change here (Musgrove to Holmes) means little to nothing and I'll lay the price w/o hesitation. This Dodgers offense right now is on a ridiculous power surge. After homering a MLB-high 55 times in the month of June, they've hit 11 more HR's in the first three days of July, upping their season-leading total to 122. They homered SIX times yday, getting contributions from five different hitters, one of them Max Muncy, who had two. Muncy has transformed this lineup w/ 20 HR's and a 1.069 OPS in just 63 games (just 189 total AB's). That offensive display was obviously more than enough for Clayton Kershaw last night and anything similar should be enough for Rich Hill tonight. Hill, like the team, got off to a slow start here in 2018. But he has a 2.55 ERA and 0.962 WHIP his L3 starts, including an absolute gem LW vs. Colorado where he struck out 10 over 6 2/3 innings. Sadly, the Dodgers still lost the game (3-1), but I don't see that hard-luck following him to this easy matchup. Scheduled starter Joe Musgrove is headed to the DL w/ a finger infection, so the Pirates instead turn to Clay Holmes, who will be making his season debut (in a starting role) tonight. What an absolutely brutal spot for Holmes to be in, given the way the Dodgers are hitting right now. Also, the Pirates' bullpen has been overworked in this series, pitching eight of the 16 innings played (Dodgers didn't have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth either game, obviously). It was just a matter of time before LA turned things around here at home and I'm "all about" jumping aboard this runaway train Wednesday night. 6* LA Dodgers |
|||||||
07-04-18 | Angels +100 v. Mariners | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
10* LA Angels (4:10 ET): I have a feeling that the Mariners and I will be "at odds" for the balance of the 2018 season, or at least until they inevitably start regressing. I'm confident in that (regressing) happening for all the reasons listed in yday's analysis. Yes, I was unsuccessful in taking the Angels last night as they fell here in Seattle, 4-1, their fourth loss in less than a month here at Safeco Field. That dates back to a sweep, which they obviously still have revenge for heading into today's game. Despite coming in on an eight-game win streak here, Seattle's 55-31 WL record is built squarely on the back of a preposterous 26-11 mark in one-run games (also 8-0 in extra innings). Those 26 one-run wins are the most by any team in the first 85 games of a season. Consider that the most one-run victories achieved by any team last season was 30! Despite now being 24 games over .500, the M's have only outscored opponents by 25 runs over the course of the season. Based on that run differential, you'd expect them to only have 46 wins. That's - easily - the largest gap between actual and expected wins in all of baseball. Honestly, it's pretty ridiculous that they're just one-half game back of the Astros, who have a MLB-best 172 run differential. Even after dropping 8 of their last 10 games, the Angels still have a run differential of +14, not great, but it's not that different from a Seattle team that is somehow 12 games ahead of them in the AL West standings. Wednesday's pitching matchup exemplifies the head-scratching positions of these two teams. Seattle starter Mike Leake comes in w/ a 13-4 team start record, but has a very similar ERA and WHIP compared to Angels counterpart Garrett Richards, despite the latter having a 5-6 TSR. Obviously, I'm looking for that to be rectified here. Seattle scored three runs in the bottom of the first yday and that held up. I don't see Richards (not announced as the starter until after the game last night) digging his team that kind of hole even though his last start was here at Safeco Field (on 6.13) and he lasted just two innings. Earlier in the season, Richards tossed 6 2/3 scoreless innings and beat the Mariners. Leake having a 4.01 ERA and 1.208 WHIP is not something you'd expect from a pitcher w/ a 13-4 TSR. Seattle has won a season-high eight in a row, but seven of those came against last place teams Kansas City and Baltimore. Ohtani is back in the lineup for the Angels (went 0 for 4 yday, but I expect better today) and they should finally "get one over" on their AL West rival. 10* LA Angels |
|||||||
07-04-18 | Padres v. A's -172 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
8* Oakland (4:05 ET): Though they ended up winning rather comfortably (6-2), the A's needed to rally last night against the Padres, scoring five of their runs in a decisive sixth inning. It was a game Oakland was outhit (9-8), but they still had more total bases (15-10) and improved to 3-0 this year vs. the lowly Padres. Similar to yday's winner on Milwaukee, we have a short turnaround between games here and that's usually "advantage home team," not that they even really need it against this week foe. The A's are starting to emerge as a real "surprise" in the AL West, having won 13 of 16 to get to eight games over .500. Though they've generally saved "their best work" for the road this season, they are 22-14 in day games and 6-2 vs. the National League. For much of this season, Sean Manaea's name probably deserved to be on the list of "unluckiest" pitchers in all of baseball. But, lately, he's started to achieve the results befitting someone w/ a 0.966 WHIP in 17 starts. Getting the baseball for the A's on Wednesday, Manaea has delivered four straight quality starts and the team has won all four times. Overall, he was unbeaten in June and had 2.84 ERA, allowing only 10 runs in 31 2/3 innings. The competition hasn't always been fierce, but it won't be today either as San Diego comes in hitting just .229 on the road. The Padres are also just 2-7 vs. the American League this season, dropping them to 16-33 the L3 seasons in IL play. San Diego made a pitching change here, now turning to Luis Perdomo rather than Eric Lauer. Either way I was going w/ the A's here and the change is nothing more than an exercise in futility. Perdomo has an 8.36 ERA and 2.50 WHIP in four starts, terrible numbers, though he last started a game back in April. It's easy to see why the team wouldn't want to turn to him regularly as his last start saw him get hammered for nine runs in just three innings. He failed to make into the fifth inning in three of those four starts, thus was temporarily banished to Triple-A. He's pitched pretty well down on the farm, but his work at the big league level just hasn't impressed me (5.63 ERA vs. AL teams). San Diego simply is not a good team and I see the A's finishing off the season sweep. 8* Oakland |
|||||||
07-03-18 | Angels +103 v. Mariners | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
10* LA Angels (10:10 ET): Seattle is truly defying the "laws" of math this season w/ a 54-31 WL record built squarely on the back of a preposterous 26-11 mark in one-run games (also 8-0 in extra innings). That duality is often difficult, if not impossble, to sustain. To put the numbers in perspective, no team has ever produced 26 one-run victories in its first 85 games of the season. The most one-run victories any team had ALL of last season was Washington w/ 30! Despite being 23 games over .500 at this point, the Mariners have only outscored their opponents by 22 runs all season! Consider that they only trail Houston by one-half game in the AL West despite the Astros having a MLB-best +170 run differential! I've said it before & I'll reiterate it again here: Seattle is vastly overrated. The Angels have revenge for a prior sweep (suffered last month here at Safeco Field) and will exact it w/ a win in tonight's series opener. Now, the M's come into this series having won seven straight games. But those seven victories came at the expense of Baltimore and Kansas City, arguably the two worst teams in the entire league. This is their longest win streak of 2018 and it's opened an incredible eight-game edge (over Oakland) for the AL's second Wild Card spot. (An argument could be made that the five AL playoff teams are pretty obvious w/ half the season still remaining. But as good as M's "lot in life" currently looks, I remain highly skeptical for all the reasons listed above. The current seven-game win streak includes three one-run victories plus another that went to extras. Speaking of skeptical, Wade LeBlanc still being unbeaten through 11 starts certainly qualifies. Note LeBlanc is "only" 3-0, however. All three wins have come here at home, but his inability to get past the sixth inning (he's done that only once all season) is what has led to so many no-decisions for him. In the eight games where LeBlanc didn't factor into the decision, the Mariners are just 5-3 w/ four of the wins coming by ... (wait for it) ... one run. In his last two starts, LeBlanc has allowed a total of 10 runs, in just 10 2/3 IP, on 18 hits. He also has just four strikeouts. Fresh off taking two of three in Baltimore over the weekend, the Angels turn to Andrew Heaney and with their starting rotation in tatters, they could really use a strong outing from him tonight. He did not fare that well opposite LeBlanc in last month's series, but I can see this one going quite differently as three of his last five starts (one a CG one-hitter) have been very good. These teams are a lot closer in talent than the records suggest (Angels' run diff is +17!) and I'll call for the gap to be rectified some, starting tonight. 10* LA Angels |
|||||||
07-03-18 | White Sox v. Reds -194 | Top | 12-8 | Loss | -194 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
6* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): The Reds pulled another one out last night, scoring four runs in the bottom of the eighth to beat the White Sox, 5-3. It was their 12th win in the last 16 games, a nice run for a team that dug itself into a huge hole at the start of the season (opened 3-18!). But, as noted yday, the Reds (I had 'em!) have been better than a .500 team for interim manager Jim Riggleman. This recent run should continue tonight w/ another game against the lowly White Sox for many of the same reasons I specified yday. Chicago has been outscored by more than 100 runs this year (one of only four teams) and should show little life following last night's heartbreaker. Being w/o the DH does no favors to an offense already 24th in runs scored and 27th in OBP. Go w/ the Reds again. The road has been quite unkind to the White Sox this year as they are just 13-28 outside Guaranteed Rate Field and many of the individual results have been ugly w/ them being outscored by nearly two full runs per game. Interleague play has also been unkind as they are now just 3-10 vs. the National League (Reds are 7-1 in IL play!). Having Lucas Giolito on the bump this evening does little to inspire confidence in an already bad team as well. Giolito has a 6.59 ERA and 1.571 WHIP in 16 starts so far in 2018 and the team actually wasted one of his better ones last time out. He went 6 1/3 innings, giving up just one run on four hits, yet the White Sox still found a way to lose (in extra innings). Even though Giolito didn't give up many runs there, he still finished w/ a negative KW ratio of 3-4. It was a lucky win for the Reds last night w/ the late rally brought about by some inept Chicago fielding. But with that in the books, I look for the home team to roll tonight. Note they did lead 1-0 for the majority of the game last night. I expect Anthony DeSclafani to pitch well here as he has a 0.927 WHIP his L3 starts overall, even after allowing four runs his last time out. He's allowed just 11 hits total in those L3 starts (5 of them home runs!), but given up eight runs, which seems a little "unlucky" to me. But there are clear signs that the Reds are turning things around and I would not be the least bit surprised if this team escapes the NL Central basement (passing Pittsburgh) by season's end. 6* Cincinnati |
|||||||
07-03-18 | Braves v. Yankees -184 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
8* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): The Yanks found themselves in a pretty tough spot last night. They were coming off a huge 11-1 win in the ESPN Sunday Nighter (over the rival Red Sox) and thus prone for a letdown. They curiously chose to make a pitching change, bumping Domingo German back a day in favor of Jonathan Loaisiga. That decision had me staying off the game entirely and sure enough, the Yanks lost 5-3 in 11 innings. Loaisiga giving up three runs in four innings certainly didn't help, though NY did rally. German will now start today and considering I was willing to back him yday, I'll be on him tonight as the Yanks look to bounce back. Atlanta has been one of the real pleasant surprises in baseball this season, but I don't see them winning B2B games at Yankee Stadium. German struggled his last time out, which was June 24th, giving up six runs in only three innings. (The team lost that game 7-6). But before that, he'd been outstanding, delivering in a 28-2 KW ratio in a three-start stretch that saw the Yanks go 3-0. All three starts were quality ones and while German has had a bit of an issue w/ the long-ball (you'll have that w/ the short fence in this park), I'll look for him to bounce back tonight. Him being pushed back a day had to do w/ him throwing last Wednesday (scoreless inning of relief). We know German will be backed by the best bullpen in all of baseball. I also expect him to get more run support tonight. Last night, the offense went 0 for 12 w/ RISP. That's a killer in an extra inning game. Let's not forget that the Yankees are 31-13 in the Bronx this season and averaging 5.6 rpg. Atlanta will send out Sean Newcomb, who is 8-2 in 16 starts this season. He's looked good of late, but that has as much to do w/ who the opponents were as anything else. Over his L3 starts, Newcomb has faced all last place teams - the Padres, Orioles and Reds. The last time he didn't face a cellar dweller was 6.10, on the road, and he allowed five runs in a loss to the Dodgers. This will be the strongest lineup he's faced all year, not to mention it has a DH. The Yankees have a massive edge in the bullpen in this matchup, which is why they were able to rally last night and that could very well prove to be the difference in this one. Consider that this team has lost only THREE series dating back to mid-April and has gone 45-19 its L64 games. They are the better team here and will bounce back from last night's tough loss. 8* NY Yankees |
|||||||
07-03-18 | Twins v. Brewers -135 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (4:10 ET): The Brewers dealt the Twins a terrible blow last night by rallying to win 6-5 in 10 innings (on a walk!). Minnesota led 5-1 after scoring four times in the top of the fifth. But they quickly gave up three themselves and it stayed 5-4 until the bottom of the ninth when the Brew Crew tied it up. I'm not a huge believer in "momentum" or a "carryover effect," but it's hard to ignore how challenging a spot this is going to be for the road team w/ such a quick turnaround. It'll be the Twins' eighth straight road game and as we've seen they're simply not very good away from home (15-26 overall). That includes a 3-11 mark when priced between +125 to +175 on the money line. Starter Jake Odorizzi has struggled all year as well, so I just don't see a path to victory for Minnesota in this one. Last time out, Odorizzi inexplicably threw six shutout innings of three-hit ball. Maybe it was because I was on him! Or, more likely, it had a lot to do w/ the opponent (White Sox) which is why I was on him and the Twins in the first place. Even with that strong outing, Odorizzi still owns a 7.10 ERA and 1.815 WHIP his L3 starts, so things have generally not been going well. Now, he did face Milwaukee earlier in the year and gave up only one run in 5+ innings, finishing w/ a season-best 10 K's. The Twins won that game, 3-1, but it's important to note that it took place at Target Field. As noted above, they have been a terrible road team as the current trip is off to a 1-6 start. They've allowed a total of 41 runs the L4 games alone. The Twins were just swept by the Cubs over the weekend. Milwaukee continues to lead the Cubs in the NL Central (by a single game entering Tuesday). I don't think for a second that the Brewers are a better team than the Cubs, but they're certainly "playoff worthy" at this point, confirmed by a +48 run differential (5th best in NL). While "only" 25-17 here at home this season, that includes a 9-3 mark in the -125 to -175 price range. Pitching has been a real strength for the Brew Crew in 2018, both on the front and back ends. Junior Guerra will get the nod this afternoon and he's got a 2.94 ERA and 1.184 WHIP at Miller Park this season. He's certainly deserving of better than a 4-5 record through 15 starts (8-7 TSR) as he's allowed more than 3 ER just three times. As we saw yday (five scoreless innings), the Brewers' bullpen is one of the best in baseball (top five in both ERA & opp BA). 8* Milwaukee |
|||||||
07-02-18 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks -141 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -141 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
8* Arizona (9:40 ET): Both the Cards & D'backs come into this series having been swept over the weekend, each at home no less! St. Louis has now lost four in a row, the last three all against Atlanta, as they tumble into the realm of mediocrity in the Senior Circuit (four games back of the Wild Card teams). Arizona still leads the NL West, but by only 2.5 games over a Dodgers team that you know is going to eventually get hot. Getting to stay home I think is a huge edge for the D'backs here as I just can't see them dropping another one at Chase Field even though their record here hardly "knocks your socks off." This team is excellent though at the run suppression side of the ledger and St. Louis comes in having scored only 11 runs its last four games. For the year, the D'backs are allowing just 3.7 rpg. That's tops in the National League w/ only Houston (way out in front) ahead in the American League. What's really impressive about that distinction is the fact the starting rotation has largely been "in tatters" for most of this season. Robbie Ray returned last week though (after missing two months) and basically did not "skip a beat." Yes, the return outing came against sorry Miami, but Ray threw six shutout innings of two-hit ball. Remember that Ray won his final seven decisions LY and has only allowed more than 3 ER one time in '18, that being his season debut back in March. Despite just getting swept by the Giants, this Arizona team still won 19 games in June (tied for most in MLB) and has won 8 of its last 10 series. They had one bad stretch this year (lost 15 of 17 back in May), but that's basically it. Meanwhile, St. Louis has gone just 6-12 its last 18 games to fall to just two games above the Mendoza Line. The schedule hasn't exactly been kind either as Arizona will be the fourth straight division leader they've faced. That doesn't even include series against fellow NL playoff hopefuls, Philadelphia and Chicago. Sending Carlos Martinez to the mound has been problematic of late as Monday's starter has a 6.75 ERA in his five starts since returning from the DL. Control has been a massive issue for him w/ 43 walks in 72 2/3 IP. He pitched well his last time out, in Cleveland, but also was the beneficiary of a rare offensive explosion from his teammates, who jumped all over Corey Kluber in a performance that is looking more and more "random" by the day. I think breaking this one down is as simple as "Arizona is at home" and thus they're the side more likely to bounce back from getting swept over the weekend. 8* Arizona |
|||||||
07-02-18 | White Sox v. Reds -175 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): The Reds, if you can believe it, have been red hot of late. They came into the weekend having won 9 of 11 before dropping the first two games vs. Milwaukee, here at home. But they fought back to earn a split of that four-game series and have now won 11 of the last 15 games overall. Tonight marks the rare occasion where they are favored - significantly so - on the money line. That has as much to do w/ their recent winning ways as it does the opponent as the lowly White Sox come to town having dropped three of four. Chicago did avoid what would have been a sweep by winning Sunday in Texas, 10-5, but make no mistake about it - this is a very bad baseball team. They've been outscored by more than 100 runs so far this season and the road has been particularly unkind w/ their record being 12-27 (-2.1 rpg). I look for the Reds to keep rolling. There are a lot of Interleague series taking place this week. So it's best to check in with the respective records in that department and sure enough we find Cincy owning a 6-1 mark vs. the American League (surprising!) and Chicago just 3-9 vs. the National League. Remember that the White Sox lineup will be w/o the DH (NL park) the next three games, so an offense which already ranks 24th in runs scored and 27th in OBP will presumably be even weaker. That's good news here for Reds' starter Luis Castillo, who has a 2-0 TSR his L2 starts despite not really having his "best stuff." He did retire the first 11 batters that he saw last Wednesday at Atlanta (a strong offensive team) though. Castillo will be opposed by veteran James Shields, who enjoyed somewhat of a personal "renaissance" in June. His last four starts have seen him allow just six runs total and he didn't give up any in the last one, going seven innings vs. Minnesota in what was probably his best start of the year. But, he's still only 3-8 in 17 starts this season (6-11 TSR) and has a 5.81 ERA on the road. Off a win, it's hard to trust these White Sox (10-18 in that role). Meanwhile, the Reds have actually been a .500 team (33-33) for interim skipper Jim Riggleman after starting the year at 3-15. They've obviously been playing really well of late and there's no problems w/ their offense, which has scored a total of 20 runs the L2 games. 8* Cincinnati |
|||||||
07-01-18 | Rockies v. Dodgers -200 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
6* LA Dodgers (4:10 ET): I was on Colorado Friday in the series opener (they won 3-1) and then they won again by that same score. So the Dodgers are facing the prospect of being swept at home by a division rival and that should have them quite motivated Sunday, especially given the price range. These teams met five times in June and the road team won all five (Dodgers began the month w/ a three-game sweep at Coors Field). It's interesting to note that while the teams are relatively close in the standings (LA 2.5 games up), their respective run differentials are "miles apart" w/ LA having outscored teams by 49 runs over the course of the season while Colorado is MINUS 44. That right there tells me what I already knew - the Dodgers remain the better team here. Given that I was on them Friday, I wasn't too shocked to see the Rockies receive eight shutout innings from starter Tyler Anderson. But seeing German Marquez also go eight innings last night - and allow only two hits - was quite the stunner on this end. Marquez came into Saturday sporting a 5.53 ERA, third worst among National League qualifiers. Not too far ahead of him is Sunday's starter Chad Bettis, who has a 5.07 ERA in 16 starts, yet somehow has found a way to go 5-1 (9-7 TSR). Bettis has been particularly bad of late w/ an 8.10 ERA and 1.98 WHIP his L3 starts. Ironically, his best outing of the three was his last time out where he allowed just two runs to San Francisco. But the Rockies lost that game, 3-2. That was after he allowed eight runs vs. the Mets on 6.20, but was bailed out by the bats in a 10-8 victory. Colorado should feel pretty fortunate to be "sniffing" .500 given their -44 run differential. As per usual, their offense hasn't done much outside the favorable conditions of Coors Field (just 4.2 rpg) including both games of this series. I really like Ross Stripling facing them today, given the Dodgers' righty has a 1.95 ERA and 0.919 WHIP in six home starts this season (he's gone 4-0). I'm positively stunned that the team has a losing record here at Chavez Ravine this year (22-23) and overall they should be a lot better than four games above .500. The Rockies are just 10-19 in day games this season (includes the win yday), a record that is better than only a handful of teams (like Baltimore, the White Sox & Miami) in that situation. 6* LA Dodgers |
|||||||
07-01-18 | Indians -123 v. A's | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (4:05 ET): The Indians are on the verge of being swept this weekend in Oakland, but are clearly the better side and should win Sunday. The Tribe are an interesting team to evaluate given the presumption that they can essentially "sleepwalk" their way to another AL Central pennant. I don't think any of the other four teams in the division are finishing w/ a winning record (certainly not the White Sox or Royals), so the path is going to be relatively easy this regular season. As uninspired as you might think they've been (just 44-37 so far), they've outscored their opponents by 54 runs thus far, which is a top eight run differential in the sport. Oakland is a surprise at 46-38 (higher win percentage than Cleveland!), and they've now won six in a row. But I look for that win streak to come to an end today. The current six-game run marks a season-best for the A's and they've beaten Cleveland twice thanks to allowing just three runs so far in the series. Yesterday saw Edwin Jackson earn his first victory of 2018 by pitching into the seventh inning of what ended up being a 7-2 win. Shockingly, Jackson has now won 10 straight decision vs. the Indians. It was a 2-0 game heading into the sixth inning yday and the A's didn't even have a baserunner until the fifth. The game changed dramatically in the sixth (A's scored three times), then it was put out of reach w/ four more in the home half of the eighth. It should be noted here that Oakland is still being outscored at home this season while batting a collective .223 here. Their offensive numbers are far better on the road. Today's pitching matchup features Mike Clevinger vs. Frankie Montas. The latter carries a 7.20 ERA his L3 starts (and 2.267 WHIP), but somehow has managed a 2-1 TSR during that stretch. He has a 5-1 TSR in six starts overall, but did allow six runs in just three innings his last time out (A's still managed to beat the lowly Tigers, 9-7). I don't see Montas holding the Indians' offense in check the same way his two predecessors did. As for Clevinger, he's been quite sharp his L4 starts, allowing a total of just six runs in 26 1/3 IP w/ 30 strikeouts. Yet, his team start record is only 2-2. Compare Clevinger's recent numbers to those of Montas, who has allowed 12 runs on 24 hits his L15 IP, and it's pretty clear which team has the edge in starting pitching this afternoon. I think it's pretty important to mention that the A's were basically just a .500 team before this win streak began. Back to .500 they'll likely go before too long. 10* Cleveland |
|||||||
06-30-18 | Brewers v. Reds -108 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (4:10 ET): Though the NL Central finds the Brewers in first and Reds in last, it was the latter that came into this series as the hotter team (had won 9 of 10). But the Brew Crew has come to Great American Ballpark and so far has demonstrated why the teams are in their respective positions. They've won the first two games of the four game set by scores of 6-4 and 8-2, which makes it seven straight wins over Cincy overall. This afternoon, the Reds aim to snap that losing skid behind Tyler Mahle, who has pitched well of late (allowed 3 ER or less in five straight starts). Milwaukee has been a losing proposition in day games while Cincinnati has basically played .500 ball under interim skipper Jim Riggleman. Go w/ the home team. Milwaukee's recent injury concerns were added to yesterday as Ryan Braun left the game w/ a stiff back. Fellow outfielders Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain were already out. So the team will heavily lean on Jhoulys Chacin today and that's not a likely winning proposition. I realize that another struggling starter in the rotation, Chase Anderson, was able to turn it around yday. But Chacin comes in sporting a 1.741 WHIP his L3 starts after getting knocked around for eight runs his last time out. He lasted only 4 1/3 innings vs. St. Louis and walked five. Chacin may own a 12-5 team start record, but his numbers (3.82 ERA, 1.337 WHIP) aren't really indicative of that kind of success. He's also winless in five career appearances at GAB (4.67 ERA). Earlier this year, he allowed four runs in 5 IP here. I mentioned earlier that Reds starter Mahle has pitched well of late, allowing 3 ER or less in five consecutive starts. Well, the rookie is also unbeaten in the month of June w/ a 2.30 ERA. With the Brewers' lineup besieged by injuries, theoretically this should be a GREAT spot for Mahle. Earlier this season, he held them to just two runs in five innings. The team did lose Mahle's last start, 5-4 to Atlanta (which was their only defeat in a 10-game stretch), but before that had won his previous five starts. Take note that the Reds are a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times they've dropped the first two games of a series. 10* Cincinnati |
|||||||
06-30-18 | Twins v. Cubs -138 | Top | 9-14 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): This seems like an awfully low price on the Cubs, no? After starting an eight-game losing skid w/ five straight losses, they've turned things around by winning three of the last four games. Yesterday afternoon marked a return to the "Friendly Confines" and they beat the Twins, 10-6. The difference was an Addison Russell grand slam in the fifth. That was one of FOUR Cubs' home runs in the game as they took full advantage of the wind blowing out at Wrigley. That's also now 21 runs they've scored total in the L2 games. Today, I look for the red hot Cubs bats to take advantage of a pitcher making his 2018 debut (Adalberto Meija) and continue their "offensive onslaught." The other story for the Cubs here is that Tyler Chatwood is making his return from the paternity list. Saturday's starter has not pitched since 6.19 when he limited the Dodgers to just one run in five innings. That's not a ton of time off, so I don't anticipate there being any problems. It's not like the Minnesota lineup is giving us any reason to fear it. They came into this series averaging just 2.6 runs per game over the last week while batting a collective .189. Remember, they lose the DH spot from the lineup in this series as well (NL park). I was actually a tad bit surprised to see the Twins be so competitive early on yday as it was a terrible spot playing in the afternoon and coming off a 13-inning game Thursday. Today, I simply expect them to "roll over." Mejia went 4-2 w/ a 2.74 ERA in 11 games (nine of those starts) for Triple-A Rochester this year. But he was 4-7 w/ a 4.50 ERA in 21 starts at the big league level LY for the Twins. This is hardly the most ideal spot to be called up. Overall, the Twins have now dropped six of eight and that's w/ six of those games coming against last place teams (Texas, White Sox). The Cubs might only be second in the NL Central, but they have the best run differential in the entire National League. They are also 12-5 vs. lefties this year and Mejia is a southpaw. Meija only a had 4.19 ERA in day games last season while Chatwood has posted a 3.19 ERA in the afternoon this season. 8* Chi Cubs No ActionNo |
|||||||
06-29-18 | Angels -141 v. Orioles | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (7:05 ET): The Angels really burned me this week as I took them in all three games against the Red Sox - on the run line - and all three times they failed to come through. My rationale for staying so stubborn was that they had a prior three-game sweep (at the hands of the Red Sox) to avenge and I simply didn't think the gap between the two teams was as large as it apparently is. The Angels are now a combined 1-11 vs. the Yankees and Red Sox this season, but 40-30 against everyone else. The proverbial "shoe is on the other foot" in this next series as they visit an AL East team on the opposite end of the spectrum, that being Baltimore. The Angels swept the O's back in May, outscoring them 25-12. Normally, I might play the avenging team in this spot, but clearly that isn't always the "way to go." I feel the Angels will treat the Orioles the same way Boston treated them. Like the Angels, Baltimore comes into this weekend on a losing skid. The O's have lost five in a row. While the Angels have dropped six straight, the difference here is Baltimore has been bad all season. The Orioles have the worst record in all of baseball (23-57) and seem destined for a 100+ loss season. They've been outscored by 119 runs and somewhat incredibly have no wins against the rest of the American League here in June (0-12)! They were just swept by Seattle, dropping the final two games of the four-game set in extra innings. That has to be incredibly demoralizing for a team in the midst of such a lost season. I hardly think handing the baseball to David Hess tonight is likely to turn things around. He's posted an 11.25 ERA and 2.167 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which have resulted in losses. The team is 0-5 his L5 starts as well. The Angels counter w/ Felix Pena, who will be making his third big league start. He's yet to have a decision either way, posting a 4.00 ERA and 1.556 WHIP. But he's allowed just 4 runs in 9 IP and has 12 strikeouts. A big key here is the price range as the Angels have gone an impressive 10-1 this season when priced as a road favorite of -125 to -175. That helps explain why they have outscored their opponents by nearly a full run per game on the road this season. 8* LA Angels |
|||||||
06-28-18 | Astros -157 v. Rays | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
8* Houston (7:10 ET): To me, there is no debate as to who is the best team in baseball. The reigning World Series Champion Astros have outscored their opponents by an incredible 174 run margin through 82 games and have been particularly devastating on the road where they've gone 29-11 and are outscoring teams by over THREE full runs per game. They come into this series in Tampa Bay having won 18 of 24 games in June as they just took two of three from Toronto (at home) to start the week. Now they face the Rays for a second time this month after taking two of three from them on the just completed 6-3 homestand. Just as was the case then, Tampa Bay is severely outclassed here. Go with the Astros. Now, since dropping two of three to Houston earlier in the month, the Rays have gotten hot. They come into this series as winners of five in a row, having swept both the Yankees and Nationals! They didn't allow a single run in either game against the Nats and have posted three shutouts during the win streak. In fact, they've allowed a total of seven runs across the five games, six of them coming in one game. The Rays' rotation, currently sporting a 22-inning scoreless streak, is unique in that they've been using relievers as starters (or as manager Kevin Cash calls them "openers") and asking them to go just a couple innings. The experiment has worked so far as the Rays have the lowest ERA in baseball over the last month. Ryne Stanek has perhaps been the most effective of these "openers" as he hasn't allowed a run in six of his seven tries. But consider he's never gone more than two innings and rarely faces an offense like the one he'll see tonight. Yes, he did hold the Astros scoreless for 1 2/3 innings in the previous series, but the Rays still lost 5-4. Houston averages more than six runs per game on the road, which should be more than enough for their traditional starter, Lance McCullers, who has a 5-0 TSR his L5 starts. Consider that as a road favorite of -175 or more, the Astros are an outstanding 16-2 this season. They are also 26-9 when matched up w/ an opponent that has a losing record. 8* Houston |
|||||||
06-28-18 | Twins -128 v. White Sox | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (2:10 ET): The Twins are in danger of being swept by the lowly White Sox, but fortunately for them Thursday's finale will be a day game against Lucas Giolito. That first component is key because the White Sox are a horrible 10-30 in day games this season, easily the worst such mark in either league. As for Giolito, the White Sox starter has really struggled this year, posting a 7.01 ERA and 1.596 WHIP in his 15 starts. He's been particularly bad at home where his ERA and WHIP are 9.91 and 1.872 respectively. It's not like the Twins' own starter for Thursday, Jake Odorizzi, has been much better. In fact, he has an 0-2 TSR against the White Sox already this season. But I believe the third time will be the charm today. Yesterday's win (6-1) got the White Sox run differential under -100, but they are still on a 100+ loss pace for the season, at least according to their run differential. Yesterday was the Sox third straight win overall, something we're unaccustomed to seeing from them. It matches a season-high, previously set at the end of April when they were playing another AL Central rival, Kansas City (who happens to be one of the few teams w/ a worse record). They have not swept a three-game series all season. Also rare is that Giolito is coming off a win in his last start. In it, he went a season-best seven innings, though he still gave up four runs. Control has been a huge issue for Giolito this season as he has nearly as many walks (47) as he does strikeouts (48). He's 1-1 against the Twins in 2018 w/ a 3.85 ERA. While the White Sox are looking to achieve a season-best win streak, Minnesota is at its low-water mark for the season, now eight games below .500. They've dropped five of their last six overal. But in a similar position Sunday vs. Texas (looking to avoid a sweep), they won 2-0. Odorizzi may hardly seem like a "stopper," but his last start was his worst to date and I envision him bouncing back. One positive is that he does have 80 strikeouts in 79 2/3 innings. The Twins do have a poor road record, but its telling that they are still money line favorites in this spot. Over the L3 seasons, they are 11-5 when priced between -125 and -175 on the ML. 10* Minnesota |
|||||||
06-27-18 | Pirates v. Mets -116 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
10* NY Mets (7:10 ET): Both the Pirates and Mets got off to strong starts this year, but in both cases that quickly dissapaited. The Buccos were 26-17 at one point, but have since lost 25 of 36 to fall five games below .500. The Mets infamously began 11-1 for 1st year skipper Mickey Callahan, but have basically been a disaster ever since, losing 44 of 65 games. They snapped an ugly seven-game losing streak yday (took 10 innings) w/ a 4-3 win over Pittsburgh. While the Mets did win three in a row earlier in the month, June has been horrific with them losing 18 of 23 overall. That's very bad, but I believe they can make it two in a row tonight. They face a red hot pitcher tonight in Ivan Nova, but the Pirates' righty has been nowhere as effective on the road in 2018. Over his L3 starts, Nova is 2-0 w/ a 0.92 ERA and 0.864 WHIP. He threw eight shutout innings of three-hit ball his last time out, vs. Arizona. But the road has generally been unkind to Nova in 2018 as his ERA and WHIP are 5.10 and 1.488. Somehow, the team has still managed to go 5-3 in his eight road starts, but that record isn't sustainable if he continues to put up those kind of numbers. Coming into today, his ERA is below 4.00 for the first time since May 2nd, a span of nine starts. Ironically, the team did NOT win that last start against Arizona, instead losing 2-1 in extra innings. This is a team that has won only 1 of its previous 12 series, so things clearly are not going well. Over the past seven games, they are hitting just .181 and averaging 2.4 rpg The meaning of last night's win for the Mets goes beyond snapping a seven-game losing streak. Hours before the first pitch, they learned GM Sandy Alderson would be stepping down as his cancer has returned. It was reported as an emotional scene in the clubhouse and don't think that it didn't have an effect on the players, all of whom are on the team because of Alderson. Zach Wheeler starts tonight desperate for a turnaround. He has an 0-7 team start record at home this season and the team is 4-10 in his 14 starts overall. The team has won just one of his L10 outings, but given the recent offensive numbers from the Bucs listed above, this is a good spot for him. Note Wheeler hasn't necessarily pitched poorly during this terrible string of results. In fact, he's delivered five quality starts and only twice has he allowed more than four runs. He's almost always gone at least six innings as well. In a battle of struggling teams, I'll side w/ the one playing at home w/ more emotion. 10* NY Mets |
|||||||
06-27-18 | Reds v. Braves -140 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -140 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (12:10 ET): After winning w/ them both Sunday (against Baltimore) and Monday (against Cincinnati), the Braves failed me last night by losing 5-3 to the Reds. It was a fairly even games. but the Reds were able to put a run on the board in five of the final six innings and that proved to be enough. Going a pitiful 1 for 10 w/ RISP did the Braves no favors and the Reds have now - surprisingly - won 8 of 9, the lone loss coming here on Monday. But in this Getaway Day matchup, I see the home team prevailing behind Sean Newcomb, who has been very effective this season, especially of late. \Newcomb's 9-6 team start record won't "knock your socks off," but he's personally gone 8-2 w/ a 2.59 ERA and 1.161 WHIP in those 15 starts. As I just mentioned, he's been particularly effective of late, posting three very impressive starts here in June. Granted, two were against San Diego and the other Baltimore, but still, allowing just ONE in 19 IP (which is what he did in those three starts) is impressive, no matter who the opponent is. Last time out, he was the victim of a bad bullpen performance as he exited after seven innings having given up just one run on five hits. Unfortunately, at that point, the Braves still had not scored. But they did put three on the board (total) in the seventh/eighth innings, only for the bullpen to then implode and give up six in the top of the ninth. Atlanta actually responded w/ four of their own in the bottom half of the ninth, but would go onto lose 10-7 in 15 innings. A key stat here is that Newcomb is a perfect 6-0 this year when the team is off a loss! The Reds have basically been a .500 team under interim manager Jim Riggleman (30-31 overall) after a disastrous start under Bryan Pryce. But they haven't been great of late when Luis Castillo is on the mound. Wednesday's starter has a 1-4 TSR his L5 outings and has allowed 20 runs in 26 1/3 IP. He has a 6.50 ERA and 1.511 WHIP on the road this season w/ the team going 3-6 in 9 starts. Despite the loss yday, Atlanta remains a strong home team w/ a 23-16 record here at SunTrust Park. 8* Atlanta |
|||||||
06-26-18 | Cubs v. Dodgers -152 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -152 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): In terms of wins and losses, these are actually two of the most underachieving teams in all of baseball. The Cubs and Dodgers have the best and third best run differentials in the entire National League, but - despite that - haven't won at the corresponding rate you'd expect. Both are in second place in the respective divisions, the Cubs trail Milwaukee by 2.5 games in the Central while the Dodgers are 1.5 gms back of Arizona in the West. However, as of this moment, they are trending in very different directions. LA took the series opener last night, 2-1, for their fourth straight win. At the same time, it was the Cubs' fifth consecutive setback. I look for those streak to continue tonight as I'll call for the Dodgers to win again. After a somewhat disastrous start to the season (they were dead last in net units), the Dodgers have really turned things around this month. Not only have they won five in a row, but they are 16-5 overall in June. Going back to May 17th, they've won 26 of 35 games. The home run ball has been a key weapon for them of late w/ 11 hit in the L4 games alone, increasing their total for the month to 47. The Cubs have the best record in all of baseball since the start of the 2015 season, but during that time they've gone just 2-8 here at Chavez Ravine. Their bullpen has been in poor form lately and the offense isn't exactly "getting it done" either. Over the L9 games, the Cubs have topped four runs only once. They've scored just 23 runs total. That certainly makes the margin of error quite slim for starter Jon Lester tonight. Now Lester has been sensational of late. He hasn't given up a single run in three of his previous four starts, the last one coming against these Dodgers. He tossed seven scoreless innings at Wrigley last Wednesday, but did so while striking out only one batter and walking three. I feel this Dodgers' lineup is poised to get to him this second go around. Note that all of the Dodgers' home runs the L2 games have come w/ the bases empty. They are due to start scoring more! Once again, Lester will be opposed by Ross Stripling, same as last Wednesday. Stripling certainly didn't pitch poorly last Wednesday as he gave up just three runs in six innings. He also had a 7-0 KW ratio. He's unbeaten (4-0) in five home starts this year w/ a 1.97 ERA and 0.812 WHIP. Plus, he'll be backed up by a red hot closer in Kenley Jansen, who has converted 18 straight save opportunities. 8* LA Dodgers |
|||||||
06-26-18 | Reds v. Braves -141 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -141 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (7:35 ET): It's Matt Harvey Da....oh wait, that's not a thing anymore. After basically being run out of New York (refused to accept a relief role), Harvey was welcomed in by a Cincinnati team desperate for arms. Harvey's 1st start w/ the Reds went well enough (four scoreless innings), but since then, it's been a series of middling results. He has a 4.79 ERA in 41 1/3 IP and only two of the eight starts have been quality. Now the Reds have actually played much better overall since Harvey's arrival, but a seven-game win streak (longest in six years!) was snapped yday as the Braves won 5-4, in 11 innings. I was on Atlanta, noting it was probably the right time to "sell high" on Cincy. The walkoff win last night did noting to change my mindset. Go w/ Atlanta again. This will actually be third straight day that I'm on the Braves. They beat Baltimore on Sunday, avoiding what would have been an embarrassing sweep, then came the win over the Reds last night. As noted in yday's analysis, this is a good home team. Their record is 23-14 at SunTrust Park. One player that has REALLY performed well here is tonight's starter Anibal Sanchez. He has a 3-0 TSR w/ a 2.00 ERA and 0.778 WHIP. His last home start saw him toss seven scoreless innings against San Diego. He's allowed 2 ER or fewer in five of his seven starts overall this year. The Reds aren't a good road team (15-23 record) and their bats are due to cool off after the win streak was snapped. This is a good spot for Sanchez, IMO. Harvey has faced the Braves many times dating back to his time w/ the Mets. Typically, these experiences have NOT gone well. He has a 3-7 record in 13 starts w/ a 5.27 ERA. He faced them earlier this year (when he was still w/ the Mets) and allowed six runs in six innings. Even if the Braves don't take full advantage of facing Harvey as per usual, if this game is close in the late innings, it's to their advantage. Cincy ranks near the top of the league in blown leads while Atlanta's 141 runs scored in the seventh inning or later leads the National League. But given the fact Harvey is winless on the road in 2018 (0-4 in seven starts) w/ a 6.29 ERA and 1.486 WHIP, I expect the Braves to score early and often in this one. 8* Atlanta |
|||||||
06-25-18 | Reds v. Braves -141 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Cincinnati arrives in Atlanta fresh off a surprising four-game sweep of the Cubs. Yes, you read that correctly. It was their 1st four-game sweep of the Cubs since 1983! A seven-run seventh is what keyed Sunday's victory as the Reds were able to battle back from five down against the beleaguered Cubs' bullpen. The club has now won seven in a row overall, its longest win streak since 2012 (when they ripped off TEN in a row). Unfortunately for them though, I see said win streak coming to an end tonight. The Braves needed a win yday (I had 'em!) just to avoid a sweep at the hands of lowly Baltimore. But they've been a really good home team for most of this season, going 22-14 here. They are also #1 in net units (+15.6) overall, making them the best bet in the league. I'll take 'em again tonight! Starting for the Reds tonight will be Tyler Mahle, who is unbeaten (3-0) w/ a 1.61 ERA in the month of June. The team has won his L5 starts. However, a 1.574 WHIP on the road "sticks out like a sore thumb" to me. Mahle has faced an incredibly weak stretch of opponents recently, including Detroit (who was w/o a DH), Kansas City, San Diego and Colorado twice. Earlier this season, he did have a season-high 11 K's against Atlanta, but that was at home. Out of 15 starts this season, only six have been quality ones. Note that the Reds last six games all were at home. I'm interested to see if they can keep it going on the road where they're just 15-22 this season. My guess is they won't. The Braves turn to Mike Foltynewicz for this series opener, activating him off the 10-day disabled list. Foltynewicz had been pitching very well prior to the stint on the DL, posting a 0.95 ERA and 0.684 WHIP his L3 starts. Note he only missed one turn in the rotation as he last pitched on 6.12 vs. the Mets, whom he held scoreless for five innings. That made it seven straight starts allowing 2 ER or less for him as his ERA and WHIP over that stretch are a ridiculous 0.86 and 0.952. He's allowed just four runs total in 42 IP w/ 51 strikeouts. He did pitch in Cincinnati earlier in the year and while he lasted only 4 2/3 innings there, he allowed just two runs on three hits (did have four walks). The Reds won't stay hot for long and my view is Foltynewicz is the one that cools them off. 10* Atlanta |
|||||||
06-25-18 | Padres v. Rangers -146 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
8* Texas (8:05 ET): The Rangers had a seven-game win streak snapped yday (were underdogs in Minnesota), but I'm still surprised to see the ML coming DOWN here as they host San Diego in the opener of a three-game set Monday. The Padres are not a team deserving of your respect. While there are worse teams out there, this one is simply not scoring many runs of late. They lost 3-2 yday (in 11 innings) to the Giants, which was their seventh loss in the last eight games. In those seven losses, they've scored all of 12 runs. They've scored just 18 total over the eight games. Year after year, the Padres are always one of the weakest offensive teams in the league & so far 2018 has been no different. They are 29th in slugging and 28th in OBP and even w/ a DH added to the lineup (AL park), I don't see them taking advantage. The Padres will also have to deal w/ Cole Hamels in this spot, making matters even more difficult. While his TSR is just 5-10 for the season (1-6 at home!), Hamels is still a very respectable starter. Over his L2 starts, he's allowed only three runs total and two were unearned. That's in 13 IP while allowing just nine hits. He leads the staff in all major categories and has a 2.81 ERA his L10 starts w/ 92 K's in 64 IP. He's gone at least six innings in eight straight starts. From his time spent in the National League, Hamels has faced San Diego many times and has usually dominated them. His career record against this opponent is 9-2 (w/ a 2.25 ERA) in 17 starts. That should continue here, given the Padres' offensive woes detailed above. San Diego will look to counter Hamels w/ Joey Lucchesi. Good luck w/ that. Lucchesi returned from a month-long stint on the DL to allow four runs last Wednesday, in only 1 2/3 innings. He hasn't started on the road since 4.22 in Arizona where he gave up four runs in five innings. He's allowed at least one home run in six straight starts, giving up nine total. The Padres have not fared well in Interleague Play recently, going 15-30 overall since the start of the 2016 season. That includes a 1-4 mark this year as they just dropped a pair of home games to Oakland last week. While the Rangers have struggled at home this year, they are 3-1 in the -125 to -175 price range. 8* Texas |
|||||||
06-24-18 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates -106 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (1:35 ET): The host Pirates are on the verge of suffering the indignity of being swept in a four-game series in their own park, but I feel they've got enough going for them today to avoid that fate. Four-game sweeps are quite rare (if you're the home team), so the Pirates should be supremely motivated heading into Sunday. Clearly, the first three games of the series have not gone well w/ the Bucs losing by scores of 9-3, 2-1 (extra innings) and 7-2. It will certainly take more runs than that here, but I'm pretty confident that's what we'll get. Two rain delays did the Bucs no favors yday (after falling behind 5-0) nor did facing Zack Greinke, who kept them in check. Somewhat surprisingly though is the fact the Pirates came into this series as the slightly better offensive ballclub. Starting Sunday for Pittsburgh will be Trevor Williams. He's off one of his better starts of the season as last Monday saw him pitch seven innings of scoreless ball. He allowed only ONE hit while also tying a season-high w/ seven strikeouts. Note that was the last time the Pirates won. Perhaps the most impressive thing about Williams that day is how small his margin for error was (Pirates won only 1-0) and he got the job done. He should do well here facing a lineup that is dead last in all of MLB in batting average (.227). Given that average, it's a real wonder that Arizona has been able to average 4.5 runs per game (13th in MLB). Williams is a righty too, and the D'backs have a lower team BA vs. righties than they do lefties. Arizona will turn to Clay Buchholz here. The good news is that Buchholz has pitched VERY well on the road this season. In three starts, he's posted a 2.12 ERA and 0.765 WHIP while holding opposing hitters to a .180 average. The bad news is that those efforts have been wasted as the team has gone 0-3 in those three starts. His last time out was at home, but a similar story as he allowed just 1 run in 5 2/3 IP and left w/ a 3-1 lead, only for the bullpen to blow the game. That made it three straight no-decisions for the right-hander, one of them coming agianst these Pirates when he allowed six runs (four unearned) - yet the D'backs still won. He started opposite Williams that day, but this time Buchholz won't be as lucky. I think wasting those previous efforts will come back to haunt Arizona as I don't anticipate Buchholz being that sharp moving forward. The Pirates offense has gotten a bit of a boost from rookie Austin Meadows (5 for 13 in this series) and that should start to translate to some better results. 10* Pittsburgh |
|||||||
06-24-18 | Orioles v. Braves -170 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (1:35 ET): I think it's fair to say that the Braves currently qualify as the National League's biggest surprise for 2018. But, surprisingly a weekend series at home w/ lowly Baltimore has not gone well. The Braves have dropped the first two games, by scores of 10-7 and 7-5. I feel that both results are a little misleading in the sense that a first inning grand slam sealed their fate yesterday in a game where they actually outhit the O's 12-7. Friday's game was a 15-inning affair that saw the Braves bullpen allow six runs in the top of the ninth (did answer w/ four of their own to force extras). I just can't see them getting swept at home by a bad Baltimore team, thus the decision to lay the price is a relatively easy one on this end. The Orioles are one of four teams in baseball that may very well end up losing 100+ games. Even w/ the two wins in Atlanta, they are 23-52 for the season (.307), just one-half game ahead of KC for the worst record in all of baseball. The numbers have been pretty frightening on the road where they're being outscored by 1.8 rpg. Going into yday, they were just 6-15 off a win this season. Not surprisingly, they are just 2-7 as a road underdog of +175 or higher on the money line. (This is the highest they've been on the ML in this series, if the line holds). Having David Hess start this game probably won't help, at least based on recent efforts, as he has a 7.07 ERA and 1.714 WHIP over his last three starts. He's allowed five runs in B2B efforts, lasting only eight innings total. An offense that ranks 27th or lower in runs scored, batting average, slugging and OBP should (theoretically) be facing an even larger handicap than usual here as they are w/o the DH (NL park). Baltimore's pitching has been just as bad as the hitting this year as the staff is 30th (ie last) in WHIP and opponents' batting average. The Braves had been a good home team coming into this series (21-12 overall), making the results of the last two days all the more confounding. They are 17-8 in day games this season (while Baltimore is just 9-20), so perhaps that helps make the difference here. Veteran Brandon McCarthy will toe the rubber for the home team today, hoping to reverse his own individual results of late. He has an 0-3 TSR his L3 starts, but also a 1.163 WHIP during that time, so he hasn't pitched that poorly. McCarthy allowed just two runs his last time out (in 5 2/3 IP), but that wasn't enough in yet another instance of the bullpen melting down. Despite now referencing two bad performances over the last week, the Braves' pen has typically performed okay this season at SunTrust Park w/ a 3.85 ERA. The number of blown saves (6) here has been an issue, but not today. Baltimore has not swept a series all season. 8* Atlanta |
|||||||
06-22-18 | Tigers v. Indians -193 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
6* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The first place Indians are finally starting to pick up some steam, opening up a five-game lead in the AL Central. Of course, it certainly helps when you play the White Sox, whom they just swept - in a three-game series - to start the week (outscoring them 24-5 in the process!). I've said it before and I'll reiterate it again here: The Tribe is definitely going to win the division. It's only a matter of how hard they want to make it on themselves. I don't think any of the other four teams are going to finish w/ a winning record. The Indians' closest competition is Detroit (five games back) and that's who they'll welcome in this weekend. They're already 7-3 head to head w/ the Tigers in '18 and 20-9 the L29 meetings as well. Add another win after tonight. Detroit's lone visit to Progressive Field this year didn't exactly go well as they were swept in a four-game series. The team is now 0-6 in the state of Ohio this season after dropping a pair down I-71 in Cincinnati to start the week. (I had the Reds both games!). That's certainly not what the Tigers were hoping for, after coming into the week just 2.5 gms back of the Indians. They have been outscored by 29 runs this year, so the losing record doesn't surprise me and they've been particularly bad on the road (13-22 record). Had they not swept the White Sox last weekend (in Chicago), that road record would look even worse. As I said in my analysis for the series w/ the Reds, the Tigers only average 3.6 rpg away from home. That simply won't cut it against a Cleveland team averaging an impressive 5.8 rpg at home this season (#1 in all of MLB!). Tonight's pitching matchup features a starter that has a 5-0 TSR his L5 starts (Detroit's Michael Fiers) against one making just his third start of the season (Cleveland's Shane Bieber). That said, Fiers still has a 4.83 ERA on the road and likely won't find things as easy this time against Cleveland as they were back on June 9th when he allowed only one run in seven innings of work (that was in Detroit). As for Bieber, this will be his first start against someone other than Minnesota. While it wasn't necessarily "pretty" his last time out (10 hits), he got away w/ allowing just one run and had seven strikeouts. Bieber is known as a high-strikeout pitcher from his time in the minors where he delivered a phenomenal 234-16 KW ratio dating back to last year (in 249 IP). Detroit is not only 1-8 as a road 'dog of +175 or higher this season; they're 8-21 in that price range the L3 seasons. 6* Cleveland |
|||||||
06-22-18 | Phillies v. Nationals -143 | Top | 12-2 | Loss | -143 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:10 ET): The standings may say these division rivals are just one-half game apart, but the reality is the gap is much larger than that. The Nationals have outscored their opposition by 47 runs this season while the Phillies' differential currently sits at just +7. That being said, the Nats come into this weekend series not exactly in their finest form. A nine-game stretch against American League teams produced a record of just 3-6, and that includes taking two of three from lowly Baltimore. Overall, the team is below .500 for the month of June, but it's not like the Phillies have been any better. The road team comes into this one w/ the same record for the month (8-10), despite just taking two of three (at home) from St. Louis. But, outside of the City of Brotherly Love, this team simply isn't the same as they currently hold a 15-20 road record (compared to just 24-13 at home). I'm on Washington in the series opener. Philadelphia might be only 8-10 in June, but they're 3-0 in Zach Eflin starts. Eflin is on the bump tonight, carrying in a 1.93 ERA and 0.911 WHIP those L3 starts. While he doesn't necessarily share in his team's struggles away from home (3.29 ERA, 1.097 WHIP), the Phillies record in his five road starts is only 3-2. Eflin hasn't exactly been consistent this year either; prior to this three-start stretch, he'd allowed 11 runs (in just 8 2/3 IP) in B2B shaky showings. It should be noted that Philly is being outscored by nearly a full run per game on the road and batting just .222. That's the lowest team batting average away from home in the entire National League! So Eflin probably shouldn't bank on getting a ton of run support tonight. Washington will counter w/ Tanner Roark, who hasn't enjoyed a ton of success recently. He wasn't bad against the Phillies earlier in the year, however, giving up just three runs in 6 1/3 innings and finishing w/ a season-best nine strikeouts. Whether its Roark or anybody else, the Nats typically don't give up a lot of runs per game (only 3.6) here at home and they're holding opposing hitters to a .216 average (#1 in National League!). As for the Nats' offense, there's been plenty of hand-wringing recently, but Bryce Harper is back in the leadoff spot and the team is 9-1 w/ him in that position this season (including 4-2 win yday). 10* Washington |
|||||||
06-20-18 | Mariners v. Yankees -185 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
8* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): I think I've made my suspiscion of these Mariners well-known by this point. Their 46-27 record has largely been "built on the back" of a 23-10 mark in one-run games, which includes a perfect 6-0 in extra innings. As I've made clear through the years, a team's record in "close games" should be close to .500. If it skews heavily one way or the other, a team should consider itself either very fortunate or unfortunate. Something else I've made clear is that scoring differential is a far better predictor of future outcomes than a team's actual won-loss record. In this regard, Seattle fails to impress as well as they are only +17 in runs scored compared to their opponents this season. I wasn't the least bit surprised then to see them get outclassed by the Yankees last night (lost 7-2) as the AL East leaders have a run differential of +103 on the season. More of the same tonight as the Yanks reaffirm the oddsmakers stance on this matchup. The Yankees hit four home runs last night; that was two more hits than Seattle had for the entire game! Furthermore, one of those two Mariners' hits leadoff the game as Dee Gordon doubled and later scored after two fielder's choices. From there, the next 19 Mariners were retired in order by Domingo German until a "meaningless" Nelson Cruz' HR in the seventh. It's another young starter going for NY tonight as Jonathan Loaisiga gets the baseball. Loaisiga made his big league debut on Friday and threw five shutout innings against the Rays. I suspect that the underdog might be popular here given the price and the pitching matchup, but that would be a mistake as the Yankees remain one of the best home teams in baseball w/ a 27-11 record. They are also one of only three teams averaging at least 5.5 rpg at home this season. Felix Hernandez toes the rubber for the Mariners. This won't be his "first rodeo" against the Yankees, in fact, he's 7-2 w/ a 2.00 ERA in 11 career starts against them. But this isn't also the same "King Felix" from the past. Hernandez is only 6-6 this season in 15 starts (8-7 TSR) w/ a 5.44 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Despite the team winning fairly regularly during the time period, they've lost four of Hernandez's last five starts and he's given up at least four runs in three of those four losses. He was good his last time out vs. Boston, but that game marked the very rare one-run defeat for the M's (at the hands of the Red Sox). Most disappointing of all for Hernandez is that - with the exception of Boston - he's generally faced some of the weaker teams in MLB and still has the subpar numbers. This will arguably be his most difficult start to date in '18 and it's one I don't think he nor the team is ready for. New York is 15-4 its last 19 games overall and is also 8-2 its L10 head to head meetings w/ Seattle. 8* NY Yankees |
|||||||
06-20-18 | Tigers v. Reds -125 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (12:35 ET): I was on the Reds last night and they wasted little time in "putting the boots" to Detroit, at one point leading by as much as 9-0 before eventually winning 9-5. It was a Joey Votto grand slam in the bottom of the third that got things going and it's worth noting that all five Tigers' runs came in the top of the ninth, when the game was already well out of reach. It's a quick turnaround for the two teams here on Wedneday and I think that spells "advantage home team" as the result should be quite similar. Even off a weekend sweep (of the lowly White Sox), I wasn't buying the Tigers on the road, not w/ a 13-21 YTD record there. Not like Cincinnati is a whole lot better, but they've actually won five of seven themselves. I'm on them again this afternoon! Sal Romano gave the Reds seven strong innings last night, allowing only four hits and no runs. Now they send arguably their top starter, Tyler Mahle, to the bump on Wednesday afternoon. The team has won all of Mahle's last four starts w/ him allowing zero runs in two of the last three (1.10 ERA in June). Last time out, he faced another American League lineup (in an AL park) and shut Kansas City out for six innings, allowing only three hits. Now that was the Royals, but here Mahle catches a break in that he's pitching in his own park where Detroit won't have the DH in its lineup. We talked about yday how the Tigers were already w/o Miguel Cabrera for the rest of the season. This is an offense averaging just 3.6 rpg on the road this season, which is bottom five in all of baseball. Mahle has allowed just 2 ER total in his last 16 1/3 IP and only 14 hits as well. While Mahle is his team's leader in net units earned, Detroit starter Michael Fulmer is last for his club in that department. Fulmer comes into Wednesday w/ a 5-9 TSR even though he's off B2B quality outings. Both times he went seven innings and allowed one run on five hits. But both of those starts came at home. In fact, it's been nearly a full month since Fulmer started on the road. He has a 4.22 ERA there for the season. As a team, the Tigers are just 19-39 their L58 road games (dates back to LY's horrendous campaign) and they're also just 1-6 vs. NL teams in 2018. Meanwhile, the Reds are a surprising 5-1 in IL play this season. 8* Cincinnati |
|||||||
06-19-18 | Marlins v. Giants -160 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (10:15 ET): The Giants lost (again) to the Marlins last night, this time in just about the most excruciatingly way possible. That being blowing a 4-0 lead and giving up two runs in the top of the ninth to fall 5-4. I was on them (San Fran, that is) and if you read my analysis yday, then you know that the Giants also dropped three of four in Miami last week. The Marlins are NOT a good team (at all), so this really shouldn't be happening. Not that SF is a top tier team themselves, but Miami has the worst run differential in the National Leaue right now (-108), thus the fact they are even within 15 games of .500 seems rather fortunate. I'll back the Giants again on Tuesday. Just like last night, tonight's pitching matchup is a rematch of the previous series between the two teams. You have to feel sorry for SF starter Suarez last night as it was the second straight time he outpitched Caleb Smith, only to not come away w/ the victory. Tonight, the situation is a little different in that it was the Giants' starter, Dereck Rodriguez that came away w/ the victory in the last meeting, at the expense of Miami's Dan Straily. Rodriguez, making just his third start of the season, pitched better than Straily as he lasted 6 2/3 innings and gave up just two runs. The Giants won the game, 6-3, scoring three runs off Straily in five innings and that proved to be the difference. Rodriguez has looked good in two of his three starts so far while Straily has struggled lately, posting a 5.54 ERA and 1.538 WHIP in his L3 starts (all Marlins' losses). In fact, Straily's team start record his L4 starts is 0-4, all of those losses coming to NL West teams (two to San Diego!). Something else I talked about in yday's writeup was that the Giants are a pretty good home team (19-12 overall). Last night's loss was just their second in the last nine games here. Usually, it's Miami's bullpen that's pretty bad (6.05 ERA on the road), not the Giants'. Truthfully, it's pretty shocking to see the Marlins having won six of their last eight games, but half of those wins came by only one run, two come from behind efforts against the Giants. I still feel revenge is in the air at AT&T Park. 8* San Francisco |
|||||||
06-19-18 | Mets v. Rockies -153 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
8* Colorado (8:40 ET): Last night, I played the Mets and that worked out quite nicely as they won 12-2, thus avenging a prior sweep they suffered at the hands of the Rockies (at Citi Field last month). On the flip side, Colorado has now dropped EIGHT in a row at home. But after being a dog last night on the ML, they are favored here and it's easy to understand why. They won't be facing Jacob deGrom this time and as I went through in yday's analysis, he was long overdue for a victory (which he got). Instead, they'll be up against Jason Vargas, who hasn't been anywhere near as effective as deGrom in 2018. At long last, Colorado snaps its long home losing streak here! The Rockies do not have a good run differential (-54), so they should probably feel fortunate to even be within four games of .500 right now. They'd certainly been overachieving even more though prior to dropping 13 of their last 17 games. So let's call this what it is, a "market correction." But the woes here at Coors Field are due to end sooner rather than later, IMO. Facing Vargas will definitely benefit the offense, which usually doesn't need much assistance at home. Vargas has a 9.14 ERA and 1.838 WHIP on the road this season, resulting in a 1-4 team start record. His overall numbers aren't much better, though he's surrendered only five runs total in his last three starts, each of them spanning exactly five innings. Look no further than last night for evidence that the "Coors effect" can have on an offense, even one that had previously been as anemic as the Mets. The 12 runs they scored last night were more than they'd scored in deGrom's previous eight starts - combined. During a disastrous 1-12 stretch that preceded the current three-game win streak, they totaled only 21 runs. I recognize Rockies starter German Marquez has hardly set the world on fire in 2018, but he did beat the Mets earlier in the season by holding them to two runs over six innings, finishing w/ 8 K's and 0 walks. The home run ball has given him trouble recently, but twice in his last three starts he's equaled that season high of eight strikeouts. Bottom line is that the Rockies are due to win one at home and they'll get the job done here. 8* Colorado |
|||||||
06-19-18 | Rangers -133 v. Royals | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
10* Texas (8:15 ET): The Rangers came to Kansas City and beat up on the lowly Royals, taking the season opener by a score of 6-3. Starter Bartolo Colon earned his 244th career win in the process, passing the legendary Juan Marichel for the most ever by a Dominican-born pitcher. Tonight should prove even easier w/ Cole Hamels on the bump. In what has certainly been a disappointing season so far for the Rangers, the Royals are a welcome matchup as KC has the worst run differential in all of baseball (-139) and dropped seven in a row. Texas should roll tonight behind Hamels as the Royals' woes continue. With last night's loss, the Royals are now a woeful 10-27 at home this season. They've lost 14 of 16 overall here in June, including the seven straight, so this is clearly a team you don't want to be caught playing right now. They've been outscored by a stunning 2.3 rpg here at Kauffman Stadium so far w/ opposing hitters batting .285. During the losing streak, their own offense is averaging just 2.1 rpg and batting a collective .183. They've been outscored 45-15 during the losing streak as well. None of this is likely to reverse course w/ Jason Hammel on the mound either. Tuesday's starter has a 4-10 TSR this season and a 5.00 ERA. Granted, he hasn't pitched that poorly of late, but he's winless in his last eight home starts (0-4 this year) and has a 4.07 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Rangers. Furthermore, there is the issue of who will be the closer for this team moving forward. Kelvin Herrera was just dealt yday to Washington and was 14 of 16 in save situations. Hamels actually lost to Hammel and the Royals last month, giving up five runs in the process. His team start record for the season is the same as Hammel (4-10), but has generally pitched better on the road where he has a 2.40 ERA and 1.161 WHIP. This will most definitely be a drop in class for Hamels after facing the Astros and Dodgers in his last two starts. Last time out (against the Dodgers), he allowed just two runs (one unearned) in 6 IP. Texas is going for a season-best fourth straight win tonight and will do so w/ Elvis Andrus now back in the lineup. He returned last night after missing 59 games and scored a run. This is the rare situation where the Rangers absolutely deserve to be favored on the road. 10* Texas |
|||||||
06-19-18 | Tigers v. Reds -121 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): Detroit arrives in Cincy riding a five-game win streak. They swept the division rival White Sox over the weekend, on the road. Note that before that series commenced, the Tigers were just 10-20 away from home this season. They lose the DH from the lineup in this Interleague series (played at a NL park) and that will certainly affect an offense that isn't very potent to begin with. The Tigers only average 3.6 rpg on the road and remember they're already w/o the services of Miguel Cabrera the rest of the way. The Reds aren't the stiffest of competition, but I like them here as they've won four of six themselves and starter Sal Romano has pitched well of late. He has a 1.056 WHIP his L3 starts overall. Interleague play has gone very differently for these two teams this season. The Reds are 4-1 while the Tigers are 1-5. Cincy just took a pair of games in Kansas City last week. All of Detroit's IL games came against Pittsburgh, early in the season. Cincy just dropped two of three in the Steel City themselves (over the weekend), but did take the finale, 8-6. Anything close to that kind of offensive production should be enough for Romano, who threw eight strong innings his last time out, allowing just one run (a solo HR) on four hits. That was most definitely his most effective start in awhile, but note Romano typically doesn't allow many baserunners. Facing a weakened Tigers lineup (no DH) here certainly works in his favor and as I already mentioned, Detroit typically doesn't score much on the road. Matt Boyd starts here for Detroit and the team has won his last four starts. Only one was quality, however, which is telling. All four wins came as a ML underdog as well. Can he really put together five straight wins as a dog? The fact that the Reds are ML favorites is telling. Boyd has won just one decision (in six tries) on the road this season and has a 2-4 team start record. Let's also note that the Tigers are just 14-22 in road games this season. 8* Cincinnati |
|||||||
06-18-18 | Marlins v. Giants -140 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -140 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (10:15 ET): The Giants return home with some revenge on their minds after dropping three of four in Miami last week. That should be viewed as a total embarrassment by the team, but note they are off a win yday having beat the Dodgers Sunday by a score of 4-3. For a second straight series, they avoided a sweep by winning the final game, but this is one where I believe they'll get off to a much better start. Miami, despite five wins in its last seven games, should still be viewed as the worst team in the National League (in my eyes) as they've been outscored by 109 runs this season, the third worst differential in the entire sport (Royals, Orioles). I successfully played against them yday (they lost 10-4 in Baltimore) and this line is low, IMO, to go against such a bad team. Today's pitching matchup is a rematch from last Wednesday as Caleb Smith (Miami) takes on Andrew Suarez (SF). The former got the better of the latter the last time out even though it was Suarez that allowed fewer runs. But Suarez (allowed 2 runs) lasted only five innings and Miami was able to score twice late in the game to "steal" the victory. Smith went 6+ innings and allowed three runs, but did not factor into the decision either. Pitching in San Francisco, I expect things to go differently as Smith has a 4.41 ERA and 1.183 WHIP on the road while Suarez sports an outstanding 0.829 WHIP at home. Only one of Suarez's last five starts has taken place here at AT&T Park and in that lone appearance, he delivered seven shutout innings of three-hit ball. In contrast, Smith's last road start saw him allow five runs in only four innings. The Marlins are just 14-23 overall on the road this year and being outscored by more than two full runs per game. Needless to say, that's very bad. Their bullpen has done them no favors either w/ a 6.28 ERA and 1.630 WHIP away from home. Meanwhile, the Giants have been a pretty sound home team this year, scoring 5.0 rpg en route to a 19-11 record. They've won seven of their last eight here as well and their bullpen numbers have been quite good. In the aforementioned meeting last Wednesday, the Giants blew leads of 2-0, 3-2 and 4-3. Revenge will be sweet tonight. 8* San Francisco |
|||||||
06-18-18 | Mets -124 v. Rockies | Top | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
10* NY Mets (8:40 ET): After an absolutely dreadful stretch where they dropped 12 of 13 games, never scoring more than four runs in the process, the Mets finally "turned things around" w/ a pair of victories over the weekend (even scoring FIVE times in both games!) against Arizona. Now they head to a place likely to reverse their offensive woes, that being Coors Field, which as per usual is playing as the highest scoring venue in all of baseball. The host Rockies are giving up 6.5 rpg here for the season, easily the highest average for any team in baseball, which certainly helps explain their poor 11-19 home record. This is a revenge spot for the Mets as well as they were swept by Colorado (at Citi Field) last month. With Jacob deGrom on the mound for the series opener, I like the road team's chances in this one. In DeGrom's last 10 starts, he has given up 1 or 0 ER NINE times. Seven of those nine times, he's pitched at least seven innings. Note that one time in the L10 starts that deGrom allowed more than 1 ER, he gave up only three and one was unearned. Despite this, the Mets' record in those 10 starts is somehow just 2-8! To say deGrom has been the victim of some poor luck would be a mild understatement as the Mets' offense has failed to score more than three runs in any deGrom start since April. Coors Field should change all that, however. That 2-8 TSR is mind-blowing when you consider deGrom actually has the lowest ERA in all of baseball (1.55) and it's 0.87 during that time! In five career starts vs. the Rockies, deGrom is 3-0 w/ a 0.99 ERA. Obviously, Coors can effect him too, but the fact he's the first pitcher since '99 (Randy Johnson) to have five consecutive starts of seven innings or more with two or fewer runs allowed without his team coming away with a win, tells me he's in line for the victory Monday. Colorado has been every bit as bad as the Mets recently as they've dropped 12 of their past 16 games and seven straight here at home. Bad luck has plagued them as well as their 21 blown leads this season are the most in baseball and they added to the total yday w/ a 13-12 loss at Texas. The bullpen ERA of 5.49 is the highest in the National League, which is a big problem obviously. Starting opposite deGrom will by Tyler Anderson and Coors Field has been no friend of his as he has a 5.14 ERA and 1.536 WHIP in five starts here this season. The team has gone 1-4 in those five starts as well. deGrom is long overdue for a victory here and I look for the Mets to gain a measure of revenge for that previous sweep at the hands of the Rockies. 10* NY Mets |