Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-04-16 | Brewers v. Pirates -157 | Top | 10-0 | Loss | -157 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (1:35 ET): Just last week, the Pirates went to Miller Park (which has been a "House of Horrors" for them through the years) and swept the Brewers. It's certainly strange then to see the Brew Crew come here to PNC Park and take the first two games of a three-game set. The B2B losses here now make it five in a row for the Bucs, who are somehow still just 2.5 games back of the second Wild Card in NL (which no one wants to seem to win). Milwaukee is still just 20-35 vs. the rest of the Central (just 12-27 vs. the other three teams besides Pittsburgh). Strangely, the road team has now won the last SEVEN head to head matchups between these two (five of those wins by Pit). That streak ends Sunday. Milwaukee is not a good road team (22-41). Today's starter Chase Anderson is a big reason why. He's just 1-6 in 12 road starts (3-9 TSR) w/ a 5.89 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. He has pitched well against Pittsburgh the L2 times he's faced them, although both outings came at home. He lost here at PNC Park in July, giving up three runs in just four innings. He also took the loss Sunday after giving up a pair of home runs in just 5 1/3 IP. I realize that was Anderson's first loss since July 9th, but that's a little bit misleading. His ERA was north of 5.00 entering that last start. He also threw 101 pitches, his most in any start since prior to Memorial Day. The team is now 6-12 w/ him on the mound as an underdog. Making just his fourth career big league start will be Steven Brault. While he still is in search of that elusive first win, note that his best start came on 7.29 against Milwaukee. He returned to the rotation Monday (after a one-month absence) and had to face Jake Arrieta and the Cubs. I think this is his best matchup yet. The Brewers entered Saturday batting just .191 its previous seven games and the star of yday, rookie Jose Arcia (had three hits), entered that game w/ just a .209 average since being called up on Aug 1. Milwaukee scored five of its seven runs in the final two innings as well. So, like I said, Brault has a favorable matchup here. The Pirates cannot afford to be swept at home by a non-contender considering the current state of the playoff race. 8* Pittsburgh |
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09-04-16 | Blue Jays -105 v. Rays | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
9* Toronto (1:07 ET): The Blue Jays are facing the prospect of being swept by the last place team in their division and are now tied w/ Boston for the lead in the AL East. But I like the Jays in Sunday's finale as they'll be sending J.A. Happ and his 19-7 TSR (12-2 L14) to the mound. Note they had a 1-0 lead entering the bottom of the sixth yesterday. Tampa Bay has been the one victimized by some poor luck in 2016 (11-20 in one-run games), but the bottom line is that they are the last place team in the division (58-76) and left to simply "play out the string." They are second from the bottom in all of MLB at the betting window at -23.5 units. Last year, it was the offense that carried Toronto to an AL East pennant and appearance in the LCS. They averaged nearly a full run more per game (5.5) than every other team! This year, while the offense still ranks a healthy sixth in runs per game (4.9), the pitching has vastly improved and that's despite losing David Price! Among American League teams, only Cleveland has given up fewer runs per game. Happ's emergence has a lot to do with that. Yes, I'm well aware the team has lost his last two starts after he hadn't dropped a decision since June 6th. But it was still a quality start his last time out, making it eight of those in his L10 outings. Happ has a 2.68 ERA and 1.031 WHIP his L7 starts overall and that includes six shutout innings of four-hit ball against the Rays. Tampa Bay had just two hits through five innings yday. A major reason why the Rays currently sit near the bottom in net units has been their record w/ Chris Archer on the hill. They are just 9-19 in his starts, resulting in a little over half their total losses at the betting window (-12.6 units). Archer's presence still keeps the price down for this one, which I like. Archer has been a bit stronger of late and while he did beat Happ back in April, I fully anticipate a different result this time around. Archer still has a 4.10 ERA for the year. The Blue Jays have typically been a strong team in day games, going 30-21 w/ the offense averaging 5.4 rpg. 9* Toronto |
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09-03-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -143 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -143 | 17 h 30 m | Show |
8* Colorado (8:10 ET): Things certainly did not look great for the Rockies early on yday as they trailed the division rival D'backs 5-0 after four innings. However, on the strength of two huge innings - a six-run fifth and a seven-run eighth, it ended up being a 14-7 win here at Coors Field. I've said before that Colorado is a better team than its record shows. They've actually outscored their opponents by 31 runs over the course of the season. That's a better run differential than Texas (+24), who sits atop the American League standings w/ an 81-54 record! It's been B2B seven-run wins for the Rocks, who have now won five of six overall. Meanwhile, Arizona sits at the bottom of the NL West (56-78) and another loss like yday's could potentially give them the worst run differential in the sport (currently -143). Colorado is now 9-5 head to head this season vs. Arizona. Tyler Chatwood will toe the rubber for the Rockies tonight. He's been significantly better when pitching outside of Coors Field this year, but who isn't? Perennially, Chatwood had been one of the top pitchers to bet AGAINST. But, on the road this year, he's posted an 8-2 TSR w/ a 1.82 ERA and 1.129 WHIP. He wasn't too shabby his last start at home either; giving up just two runs and five hits in 6 2/3 IP vs. Texas. This is his first start back from a short stint on the DL due to a mild back strain. Arizona seems like an ideal opponent for his return as he's 4-1 all-time against them w/ a 3.75 ERA. This will be his fourth time facing them in 2016. Twice he's turned in a quality start. While Chatwood may regress when starting at home, we know that his offense always improves. This is the top scoring home team in all of baseball (6.5 rpg). There's a bigger gap in scoring at home between them and the #6 team than there is between the #6 team (Baltimore) and #29! The Rockies average roughly two more runs per game at home compared to on the road. The L4 games have seen them score a total of 37 runs, more than nine per game. None of this is a good sign for Arizona starter Brandon Shipley, who already has a 7.27 ERA and 1.558 WHIP his L3 starts. That's facing the Padres, Mets and Reds, three of the NL's weaker offenses. Another big win for the home team Saturday night. 8* Colorado |
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09-02-16 | Tigers v. Royals -144 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -144 | 19 h 29 m | Show |
8* Kansas City (8:15 ET): Two key edges for the Royals in this divisional tilt. One is that they are at home. They're 41-23 at Kauffman Stadium, a home record that is right in line w/ the top teams in the American League. It has been a 28-41 road record that has kept them on the fringes of contention all year long. The other edge is Danny Duffy will be on the hill. Prior to losing his last start (at Boston), Duffy had not been beaten since June 6th. He was 10-0 over 14 starts w/ the team winning 11 in a row before the loss on Saturday. The Royals just swept the Tigers earlier this month (in Detroit!) and while you'd think the revenge angle "counts for something," the fact is Detroit is overmatched in the opener of this three-game set. Take Kansas City. Duffy did pitch at Comerica Park on August 16th and shut down the Tigers for 7 2/3 innings, allowing only one run on three hits. It was his third time facing Detroit this season and he's gone 2-0 w/ one no-decision. Ironically, both wins came on the road. Here at home though, Duffy has essentially been "lights out" all year w/ a 10-1 TSR, 3.01 ERA and 1.078 WHIP. He personally has not lost a decision, going 6-0. Since the All-Star Break, his KW rate is 55-14 KW and he'd allowed 3 ER or less in seven straight starts prior to Saturday. I certainly like him over Anibal Sanchez, whose 5-17 team start record makes him the worst pitcher to bet on in all of baseball this year (-12.8 units). He has a 8.01 ERA and 1.675 WHIP on the road (11 starts, 2-9 TSR). Duffy, for the sake of comparison, is #2 in net units earned at +12.8. So the chasm that exists here between the two starting pitchers is about as big as it gets. Sanchez did pitch very well vs. KC back on August 17th, but it was all for naught as the Tigers still ended up losing the game 4-1. I don't think Sanchez will be able to duplicate that performance where he held the Royals lineup to only one hit over seven innings. Prior to losing the last two games, the Royals had been a hot team. They'd won seven consecutive series and 18 of 22 games. Note that 5-4 losses to the Yankees on Tuesday and Wednesday both came in extra innings. They are 9-4 head to head with the Tigers in 2016, including 5-2 here at home. The Tigers have been hot themselves, but the pitching mismatch is too severe for them to overcome. 8* Kansas City |
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09-01-16 | Padres v. Braves -133 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (12:10 ET): The Braves treated me so well yday (won 8-1) that I might as well come back w/ them this afternoon as they look to sweep the Padres right out of town. As I've stated before, you won't find a worse team in day games than San Diego. They're a MLB-worst 12-30 in that situation and you have to figure Getaway Day might be the least likely spot for them to "get off the mat." This series has seen Atlanta win by scores of 7-3 and 8-1. The Padres are a pretty dreadful 25-43 on the road as well and have scored three runs or fewer in eight of the last 10 games. I'm calling for the Braves to pull off just their third sweep of the entire season and first of a non-division foe! In the first two games of the series, Atlanta starters have both looked like Cy Young candidates. Julio Teheran dominated Monday, but that really wasn't all that surprising, given his numbers. But even I was surprised by how dominant Matt Wisler was and I had him. Wisler was coming off flirting w/ a no-hitter in his previous start and struck out 10 batters while allowing only one run on four hits over 6 IP. San Diego finished the game w/ only five hits and now has a team batting average in the neighborhood of .190 its L8 games. This all bodes well for today's starter, Mike Foltynewicz, who looked good himself his last time out. He held San Francisco to just one run and five hits (retired 15 of the first 18 batters that he faced) in 7 2/3 IP (6-1 KW) and Atlanta won the game 3-1 as +125 ML underdog. The Padres' team batting average in day games is just .217 this season. Jared Cosart will oppose Foltynewicz and while the two starters have remarkable similar ERA's, Cosart's WHIP is noticeably higher (1.657 to 1.256). Cosart has actually allowed only 3 ER total in his L3 starts, but his strikeout numbers weren't impressive in two of those outings and the last one saw him make it only five innings. In fact, since rejoining the rotation in late July, Cosart has yet to last longer than 6 IP in six tries. There have been three different times this year where Cosart has walked six batters, one of them against Atlanta. As you can tell, this Braves' offense has picked up in this series w/ 15 total runs scored. 8* Atlanta |
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08-31-16 | Padres v. Braves -139 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (7:10 ET): Both of these NL also-rans essentially folded up their "2016 tents" long ago. The Braves are 49-83, tied w/ Minnesota for the worst record in all of baseball and no team has been outscored by a wider margin over the course of the season (-160 run differential). The Padres now find themselves in last place in their own division (NL West) at 55-76. If you paid any attention to the preseason projections, neither of these clubs' current standing should really surprise you. While, typically, there would be little reason to support Atlanta, I believe tonight is an instance where taking them is worth the investment. San Diego is a dreadful 25-42 on the road this season, including a 7-3 loss here in last night's series opener. As per usual, the Braves got a solid showing from Julio Teheran last night. Where they deviated from the usual script was the offense actually showed up to support their ace. Recent call-up Dansby Swanson was the driving force behind that production w/ 3 RBI's. Tonight's starter, Matt Wisler, would love to get the same amount of support that Teheran got Tuesday. However, maybe Wisler won't need so much help? After all, in his last start, he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning. He wound up allowing just one run and two hits in eight innings as he cashed as a +160 dog on the money line in Arizona. That was his first start back following a one-month demotion to the minors. Here, he faces a San Diego lineup that has scored three runs or fewer in six of its last seven games. The team's batting average is a paltry .197 during that time. The Padres will hand the ball to Pat Clemens tonight. In eight starts, he has a 5.54 ERA and 1.539 WHIP. Note that the Braves have won four straight games when facing a pitcher who has a WHIP above 1.30. His last time out, Clemens allowed five runs (in just 5 1/3 innings) in a 6-3 loss to the Cubs where he was a massive underdog. Those 5 1/3 IP actually marked a season-high for Clemens, which is not a good sign for a San Diego bullpen which is 24th in ERA. This is a rare play on the Braves for me. 8* Atlanta |
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08-30-16 | Twins v. Indians -217 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
5* Cleveland (7:10 ET): As you can tell from the odds, this sets up as a complete mismatch. Yes, the Indians have had their fair share of issues w/ the Twins this season (only 6-8 against them). The Tribe also came into this series having dropped five of six overall. But they won last night's opener, 1-0, and that sets them up well for Tuesday. Minnesota is just 1-5 this year following a shutout loss and is in a terrible way right now. Last night's loss was their 11th in a row overall as they continue to sink to the bottom of the American League. Not only do they have the worst record in the league by a 6.5 game margin, their -124 run differential is 30 runs worse than the second worst team. During the 11-game losing streak, they've been outscored by an 83-39 margin. Yikes! Tonight should be an easy win for Cleveland. The last time that Josh Tomlin started against Minnesota, he went 7 2/3 innings and gave up only one run on six hits. Unfortunately, in seven starts since, he has an 8.53 ERA and 1.579 WHIP. The team has lost each of the last five times he's taken the mound. But this remains a solid starting rotation (#3 in runs allowed among AL teams) and Tomlin has been a big reason why. He's had to face some tough opponents during this recent stretch: Texas, Toronto, Boston and Washington to name a few. Tonight's start will be a huge drop in class and remember the Twins could not score a single run in 10 innings last night. Tomlin has a 3-0 TSR against them this season. Minnesota goes with Andrew Albers tonight. This will be his first start since 2013! In 21 starts for the club's Triple-A affiliate up in Rochester, Albers went 10-6 w/ a 3.69 ERA, numbers that don't exactly blow you away. I know that Cleveland's offense has been struggling in its own right recently, but this looks to be the spot where they "bust loose." Remember that the Indians are third in runs per game among American League teams. At home, they are one of the highest scoring teams in baseball at 5.7 runs per game. Only Colorado and Boston have scored more in their home parks. The Tribe is also 27-15 this year when facing a left-handed starter (Albers is a southpaw). 5* Cleveland |
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08-30-16 | Blue Jays -142 v. Orioles | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -142 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:10 ET): The Blue Jays beat the Orioles last night, 4-1, thereby increasing their lead in the division to four games. (Boston is in between, two games back of Toronto). Baltimore seems to be fading fast as they've now dropped four of five overall. Of course, looking at their YTD run differential, one could have easily predicted this decline. For the season, the O's have outscored opponents by only seven runs. To put that number into some perspective, Toronto's run differential is now +106 for the year. (Boston is +120). With Chris Tillman now out of the equation, even homefield advantage probably can't save the O's against what is simply a vastly superior division foe. Toronto has won four in a row (swept Minnesota over the weekend) and I'm on them Tuesday. I think a case could be made that the Blue Jays' starting pitching is quite underrated. Monday saw them get seven-plus innings out of Marco Estrada, who gave up only one run on four hits. Tonight, they turn to JA Happ. Happ had a 12-0 team start record in 12 starts before taking the loss last Thursday vs. the Angels. It was just the third time in his L13 starts that he allowed more than 3 ER. I anticipate him bouncing back tonight as he is already a perfect 2-0 this year vs. Baltimore, both times going seven innings. The last time, he allowed just 1 ER on 3 hits and finished w/ 11 K's. Happ has a 1.08 WHIP in 12 road starts this season. With Chris Tillman injured, Baltimore is in some real trouble. They are just 51-54 this season in the games NOT started by Tillman (20-6 when he is on the mound). Monday saw them waste a rare solid showing from Wade Miley, who allowed only three runs in seven innings and matched a season-high w/ nine strikeouts. Now, they must turn to a pitcher unlikely to duplicate his most recent performance. Ubaldo Jimenez delivered six strong innings last Thursday in Washington (just 1 ER, 5 hits allowed) yet the team still lost 4-0, so that's another wasted opportunity. Jiminez, back in the starting rotation only due to the Tillman injury, has a 6.38 ERA and 1.86 WHIP this season. That's why I say he's unlikely to duplicate the performance we saw against the Nats. Also, the last time he faced the Jays, he was rocked for five runs in just one-third of an inning! Baltimore now faces its largest deficit of the season in the division race while Toronto is a season-best 19 games over .500 (49-30 L79). The two AL East rivals will continue to head in opposite directions after tonight. 8* Toronto |
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08-29-16 | Rays v. Red Sox -191 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
5* Boston (7:10 ET): Buoyed by MLB's top offense (704 runs scored), the Red Sox still own the best run differential in the American League (+115). But I offered up the qualifier ("still") due to the fact the team is off a disappointing weekend series vs. Kansas City where they dropped two of three games. That includes a 10-4 loss Sunday night where one inning basically decided the game (eight run sixth by the Royals). But getting to stay at Fenway, I'll call for Boston to bounce back Monday at the expense of the last place team in their division. Tampa Bay did just play the Red Sox tough last week (teams split a four-game series at Tropicana Field) including a win w/ tonight's same pitching matchup. But as we saw over the weekend in Houston, the Rays were unable to sustain that success. I'm on the home team. Tampa Bay is probably deserving of a better record. While they are languishing at 55-74 for the year, their run differential is only -16. That's a better number than 68-62 Kansas City has (-18). What's really hurt the Rays this year is a 10-20 record in one-run games. But they actually did win a pair of those against Boston last week. One of those came with Matt Andriese facing Rick Porcello. Those two will have a rematch tonight and expecting a repeat of the last outcome seems foolhardy. That's because over his L3 starts, Andriese still has a 7.72 ERA and 1.531 WHIP. He didn't get the win against Boston, mind you, after allowing 3 ER in 6 IP. Rather, the Rays won that game in the 11th inning, helped by a fielding error. Andriese is actually winless over his L13 appearances, six of those starts, and has a 5.63 ERA since the All-Star Break. Meanwhile, Porcello has been a revelation in the Red Sox rotation, especially in light of the generally poor return on investment the club has gotten out of David Price. Porcello has yet to lose a decision in 13 starts at Fenway Park this season (12-0) and has a 0.831 WHIP his L3 starts overall. He delivered a sixth consecutive quality start at the Rays' expense last Wednesday and now that he's back home I expect an even stronger outing tonight. Overall, Porcello is 17-3 in his 26 starts this season. Boston is a huge favorite for a reason and they can't afford to drop a game like this when in the midst of a tight playoff race. 5* Boston |
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08-28-16 | Rockies v. Nationals -175 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -175 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
6* Washington (1:35 ET): The Nats lost to the Rockies yday, 9-4. But that's a misleading score as it was an 11-inning affair. Giving up a pair of two-run homers in final frame was "all she wrote" for Washington, but I don't see any reason why they shouldn't bounce back Sunday. I had them in Friday's series opener and in my analysis reiterated the belief that this is the second best team in all of baseball (behind only the Cubs). Their 75-54 WL record is quite impressive and has them eight games clear of the rest of the field in the NL East. But a +137 run differential says that record should be even better as it has them on an 80-win pace. I look for them to take the series w/ a big win today. Washington's offense has recorded at least 10 hits in five consecutive games. Facing Chad Bettis today, I see that trend continuing. Bettis has largely been a disaster over his L3 starts w/ a 6.92 ERA and 2.231 WHIP. Somehow the Rockies still slugged their way to a pair of victories during that time. One was at the Nats' expense. Bettis lasted only three innings that day due to rain. Last time out, he made it only through five and allowed four runs in what ended up being a 4-2 loss to Milwaukee. The Nats are forced to counter with Lucas Giolito, making his fourth spot start of the year. While the results of the first three are hardly awe-inspiring, here he's facing a Colorado lineup that typically gets much weaker when taken outside of Coors Field. Their scoring average dips by an average of roughly two full runs per game on the road. Again, that nine-run effort yday is a bit misleading considering the extra frames. Remember that Rockies were swept in Milwaukee their previous series, scoring just seven runs in three games. 6* Washington |
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08-28-16 | Padres v. Marlins -130 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -130 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
8* Miami (1:10 ET): A killer 1-0 loss yday against the Padres leaves the Marlins 1.5 games back of the Cardinals for the final NL Wild Card. They were fortunate in that St. Louis also lost Saturday, 3-2 to Oakland. Miami still has the distinction of being one of eight teams (four in each league) that owns a better than .500 record both at home and on the road. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if this team does end up making the postseason. Certainly, the postseason is a pipe dream at this point for the Padres, who are 21 games below .500 (24-41 on the road). They've been outscored by 67 runs over the course of the season (5th worst run differential in National League). This is tantamount to a getaway day for them and I can't see B2B wins. Take the home team. Though San Diego scored the game's only run yday, Miami finished w/ more hits (9 to 7). Really, a low-scoring game should have been expected as the Padres are still batting a collective .195 over the L7 games while the Marlins are averaging just 2.6 rpg during that same time. The problem for the Fish on Saturday was they went a horrible 1 for 8 w/ RISP and left eight men on base. I anticipate that they'll find greater success today against Luis Perdomo, who has a 5.40 ERA and 1.593 WHIP on the road this season. Perdomo comes off probably his best outing all season as he held Arizona to only one unearned run over seven innings. But that means regression to the mean is probably a reality for him today. The seven inning outing last Sunday matched a career-long effort. It was just his seventh career start all year. Maybe Justin Nicolino won't impress you w/ his overall numbers, but the Marlins starter is getting a "second life" here after being recalled from Triple A to replace Andrew Cashner in the rotation. Each of Nicolino's L4 big-league outings took place on the road (one in San Diego). His L2 at home both saw him give up 3 ER or less. Overall. Miami has been a good bounce back team, going 36-25 off a loss this year. San Diego is just 18-34 off a win and 87-115 in that role since the start of 2014. I mentioned the Padres' terrible road record earlier; it turns out they are also a MLB-worst 11-30 in day games too. 8* Miami |
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08-28-16 | Twins v. Blue Jays -191 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
5* Toronto (1:05 ET): The price didn't discourage me from taking the Blue Jays yday (they won 8-7) nor will it here. As detailed in yday's analysis, Toronto is the superior team here in virtually every facet of the game. Saturday saw them defeat Minnesota's best pitcher (Ervin Santana) en route to sending the Twins (49-80) to their ninth straight defeat. Minnesota has now been outscored by 120 runs over the course of the season. I'm already on the record as saying the Jays are your likely AL East winner. Since starting the year just 26-26, they've gone on to win 47 of 77 games and enter today one game up on Boston. Again, this being a day game is another edge Toronto really doesn't need. They're now 29-21 in day games while Minnesota is just 18-31. Again, the Twins had their best pitcher on the mound yday. But despite that and Santana being handed an early five-run lead, the team still lost. That's not a good sign here for Kyle Gibson dealing with a Toronto offense that's scored 23 times in the first two games of the series. Gibson checks in w/ a 6.16 ERA and 1.789 WHIP his L3 starts after allowing five runs in five innings his last time out. That came on the heels of an ultra-rare CG effort, the lone time in his L5 starts that Gibson made it past the five inning mark. He also didn't make it longer than five innings when he faced the Jays last August thanks to surrendering eight runs. During this nine-game losing streak, Minnesota has been outscored by a whopping 73-33 margin! The club is just 2-7 its L9 games in Toronto. It will be knuckleballer R.A. Dickey going for the home team today. He's off B2B solid outings where he allowed a total of only three runs in 11 2/3 IP. The team won his last outing, 7-2 over the Angels. That came after a tough 1-0 loss (in New York) his previous time out. That hard luck setback is the only time Toronto has suffered a defeat in the last four times that Dickey has started. Certainly, Minnesota won't be holding the Jays' offense in check like that. Again, it probably should be considered a fortunate win yday considering they faced a 7-3 deficit entering the eighth inning. But, to me, that was the Twins best shot at achieving victory in the series and they blew it. 5* Toronto |
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08-27-16 | Indians -135 v. Rangers | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): The teams with the two top records in the American League have exchanged blowout victories to start this four-game set in Arlington. The Rangers took Thursday's opener in 9-0 fashion, but it was the Indians bouncing back in a major way Friday w/ a 12-1 victory. There's been far too many times when Texas has been routed like that this season. Consider that despite being 75-54, they've actually been outscored by three runs! Cleveland, meanwhile, is near the top of the AL in run differential at +96 (trails only Boston & Toronto). Normally, I might be inclined to call for the home team to bounce back here, but I simply believe the Tribe to be the vastly superior ballclub. They win again Saturday! If the Rangers thought facing Corey Kluber was tough yday, wait until they see Carlos Carrasco tonight. This Indians' starting rotation is a major reason why I think this team could very well end up winning the ALCS. Carrasco has the lowest road ERA in baseball (1.74) and his WHIP is an almost unfathomable 0.772! The team has won 7 of the 10 times he's started away from Progressive Field. Sure enough, last time out he tossed eight scoreless innings of four-hit ball against Oakland, finishing w/ a 9-0 KW rate. Earlier this year, at home, he looked pretty good against these Rangers as well. There he again went eight full innings and allowed just one run on five hits. Overall, the Indians have won 10 of the last 12 times that Carrasco has started on the road against a team with a winning record. Last night's Tribe win also kept alive a trend that has seen the team not lose more than three in a row at any point this season. After scoring all of three runs the previous four days, Friday saw the offense "bust loose" for 17 hits and I'm anticipating a similar type effort here against the embattled AJ Griffin. The Texas starter has poor marks his L3 starts (7.41 ERA, 1.705 WHIP) and the reality is that his struggles extend even further beyond that. He has a 6.69 ERA over his L8 starts and has allowed at least one home run in 11 consecutive outings. Considering Cleveland came into this series having homered in seven straight games, that could be trouble. 10* Cleveland |
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08-27-16 | Twins v. Blue Jays -199 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
6* Toronto (1:07 ET): Don't be surprised if the Blue Jays end up winning the American League East. Last year saw them pull off that very feat, but a 93-69 record somewhat undersold their dominance as they led the league w/ a monster +221 run differential (Cubs +219 this year). Like 2015, the Jays got off to a bit of a slow start this year (were only 26-26 through 52 games), but they've since taken flight and are now 16 games above .500 (46-30 L76 games) and again atop their division. Last night was an easy 15-8 win over Minnesota thanks to four home runs. Losers of eight in a row, the Twins find themselves at the opposite end of the AL spectrum as they are 30 games below .500 (49-79), which is the worst record in the league. I anticipate today's game playing out similar to yday. Marcus Stroman will toe the rubber for the home team here. While he's been a bit of a disappointment overall, he's posted a 2.41 ERA and 1.179 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, he held a very good Cleveland team to just one run over 7 1/3 (9-1 KW rate), but hard luck factored him out of the decision (bullpen blew the game). In fact, despite four consecutive quality starts to open August, Stroman has been able to win only once (the one time he started here at home!). That's despite a 34-4 KW rate and allowing just 6 ER in 25 1/3 IP. Back in May, he dominated this Twins lineup, holding them to just three hits in 7 2/3 innings. Stroman is certainly due to break through in the win column from where I sit. As mentioned earlier, Minnesota has now dropped eight in a row. Resigned to simply "playing out the string", they won't be nearly as motivated today as Toronto, who is in the thick of a playoff chase. Sure, you can make an argument that Ervin Santana gives the underdog a "puncher's chance," but his offense came into this series averaging just 2.6 rpg over its last seven contests w/ a .197 team batting average. Also, there is the matter that Santana is 0-4 vs. Toronto going back to 2011. This being a day game does Minnesota no favors as they own an 18-30 record in that situation. Toronto, meanwhile, is 28-21. 6* Toronto |
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08-26-16 | Phillies v. Mets -168 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The Mets picked up a much needed win yday at the Cardinals (and my!) expense. That 10-6 victory elevates them above .500, but considering where they were at this time last year, that's a major disappointment. Still, they are only 3.5 games back of the Cards for the Wild Card and if the Metropolitans are to make a move, this weekend would be a great time to start as they welcome in the lowly Phillies. Philly did win Wednesday and was off Thursday, but I have such a low regard for this ballclub as they've clearly overachieved even though they're still nine games below .500. A -126 run differential is the the third worst in all of baseball and says they "should" only have 49 wins (actual win total is 59). I like the Mets here. Save for one victory against Colorado at home on August 14th, the Phils have not had much success when tonight's starter Adam Morgan is on the mound. Going all the way back to May 15th, Morgan's team start record is 1-10. His numbers are simply not good (6.40 ERA and 1.591 WHIP) and those get slightly worse when pitching on the road. Morgan is off one of of his better starts of the year, but the Phils still lost the game and I find it difficult he'll be able to duplicate that kind of performance here. He's not known for going deep into games and will be throwing to a new catcher tonight as well. Yesterday's trade of Carlos Ruiz means Jorge Alfaro will have to be called up. Bartolo Colon has proven himself to be a reliable option in the Mets' rotation this year. There might be a bit of a discrepancy in his ERA and WHIP over his L3 starts, but the YTD numbers are much better than those of Morgan. Colon has faced Philadelphia twice this year and allowed only eight hits in 11 2/3 IP. The last time all three runs allowed were unearned and the Mets won 5-3. Colon comes off an impressive outing where he held the Giants to only two runs over 6 1/3 IP. Despite a 3-4 record the L7 games, Philly is averaging just 2.p rpg during that time. Again, this Phillies team has the greatest discrepancy in the league between actual and expected wins. They are 3-10 as a road underdog in the +150 to +175 range this year. The Mets have won 22 of the L29 times Colon has started a series opener. 8* NY Mets |
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08-26-16 | Rockies v. Nationals -182 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
6* Washington (7:05 ET): Thanks to Max Scherzer, the Nationals were able to salvage a game against the Orioles last night. I had the Under in the one and Scherzer (a huge ML favorite!) was every bit as good as I thought he'd be in shutting Baltimore out. This weekend, Washington gets to stay at home, only it's a drop in class w/ Colorado coming to town. While a clear argument could be made for the Nats being the second best team in all of baseball (behind the Cubs), the Rockies are resigned to "thinking about next year" w/ a record that's seven games below .500 after being swept in Milwaukee of all places. Washington might be a somewhat sizable favorite in tonight's series opener, but the price is certainly justified. The Rockies did take two of three from the Nationals earlier this month, but that was in Coors Field. You certainly should not expect a game along the lines of the 12-10 win they posted the last time these teams met. It's no secret that when you take this Colorado team out of Coors Field, the offensive numbers dip dramatically. They average a MLB high 6.3 rpg at home, but on the road that numbers drops to 4.2. That has to be "music to the ears" of Nats starter Gio Gonzalez, who will be going for his 100th career win. Twice he's already failed to hit that benchmark, one of those games coming against the Rockies, but the Nats have won each of his L3 starts in D.C. Colorado scored only seven runs total in its last series. Washington is 5-3 off a shutout win this year, but 26-15 in that role since the start of 2014. Tonight, they'll be going up against a pitcher making just his second career big league start. That would be Jeff Hoffman, whose debut did not go particularly well. Facing the Cubs, he allowed seven runs in just four innings. Call it a "baptism by fire" for Hoffman having to face the top two teams in the National League his first two times out. Overall, Colorado has dropped its last six road games while getting outscored 40-22. Even more troubling is the fact that those six losses came against the Phillies and Brewers, two of the worst teams in baseball. The Nats are 45-28 off a win of any kind this year and should exert their dominance here. 6* Washington |
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08-25-16 | Mariners -156 v. White Sox | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -156 | 18 h 1 m | Show |
8* Seattle (8:10 ET): I've done quite well betting White Sox games the L2 nights. Tuesday, I took the Pale Hose and was richly rewarded as they pounded the Phillies 9-1. Wednesday, I pivoted to the Under and that too resulted in me cashing a winning ticket (Chicago lost 5-3). Now the Southsiders are welcoming in a far tougher opponent and I'll be on the other side. The Mariners come in w/ a 67-59 record and are three games back of the Wild Card. Yes, they did just lose B2B games to the Yankees at home. But Seattle's YTD run differential of +44 is actually fourth best in the American League and vastly superior to the team they're chasing in the West, Texas, who is a stunning -1! I still believe this team has a great chance of making the postseason and anticipate them having a good weekend, starting w/ a win tonight. For years, Felix Hernandez has had to carry a Seattle rotation with little depth. But the backend of the rotation is now stronger and you can count tonight's starter James Paxton among the reasons why. Paxton checks in having dominated the last three American League foes that he's faced. He held Toronto, Boston (#1 offensive team) and Los Angeles to just three runs and 12 hits total in 23 1/3 IP. Now he is coming off a two-week stint on the DL due to a bruised left elbow. But perhaps that will be a "blessing in disguise" as he comes in fresh to face Chicago. Paxton was only two outs shy of a complete game in his last start. Remember what I said in yday's writeup on the Under? The White Sox are second from the bottom in runs scored among American League clubs. There was a time that this team actually led the AL Central, but that was back in early May when they were 23-10. Since that time, they're a pretty woeful 18 games below .500. Seattle had won 15 of 20 prior to losing its last two games. It seems tough to endorse Chicago starter Ranaudo in this spot as he allowed five runs in just four innings in his first start, which was last week at Cleveland. I'll look for the M's to improve to a perfect 5-0 this season when coming off a shutout loss. 8* Seattle |
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08-25-16 | Mets v. Cardinals -153 | Top | 10-6 | Loss | -153 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (7:15 ET): Last season saw the Cardinals and Mets both win their divisions. The former posted the best regular season record in the National League, but it was the latter that went on to win the pennant. Coming off those respective campaigns, both clubs entered 2016 w/ reasonable expectations of making the postseason again. Well, given the current landscape in the Senior Circuit, it's increasingly likely that only one or possibly neither will make it that far. Right now, it's St. Louis in better position as they enjoy a 1.5 game cushion for the second Wild Card after beating the Mets last night by a score of 8-1. That result leaves New York 4.5 games off the pace and truth be told, they look like a sinking ship. I'm going with the home team in this series finale. Now the Mets did win Tuesday, 7-4. But for this rubber match, the Cards will be sending Adam Wainwright to the bump. Following B2B disastrous outings, Wainwright bounced back his last time out by holding Philadelphia to only three runs and five hits in 6 IP (StL won 4-3). Now, he gets to face another terrible offense. The Mets rank 29th in runs scored, 29th in team batting average and 27th in OBP. One of their hidden successes last season was how good the offense was on the road (4th in runs scored). This year, they've dropped all the way down to 27th in that department. Obviously, they scored only the one run yday (on just four hits). Wainwright has been really solid at home this year w/ a 3.06 ERA and 1.172 WHIP in 12 starts. The team has won 8 of those 12 starts. One of the real head-scratchers of this MLB season is the fact that St. Louis has a losing record (now 29-34) at Busch Stadium. Last year, they went a MLB best 55-26 in home games. It's not as if the numbers suggest that they've played poorly either here at home. They are basically dead even in runs scored vs. allowed. I feel that this home record of theirs is due to improve. For the year, the team has a top six run differential (+85) in all of baseball. Offensively, they have really come around of late w/ 28 HR's in the L13 games. They are 4th in MLB in runs scored and 1st in home runs. Last night saw them pound out a season-high 19 hits w/ everyone but leadoff man Matt Carpenter collecting at least two. Making just his second career big-league start, I don't like the Mets' Seth Lugo's chances here. 8* St. Louis |
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08-24-16 | Giants v. Dodgers -128 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
10* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): Supremacy in the National League West is on the line here w/ the Dodgers currently holding a two-game edge on the rival Giants coming into tonight. Run differential says that LA (+72 vs. +45) is the better team here as does play since the All-Star Break. San Francisco has the worst record in either league since the Break at 11-24. Consider that they had the BEST record in baseball heading into the Break. That's quite the discrepancy and it can be tied to the team's massive reversal of fortune in OPS (on base percentage + slugging) differential. They were eighth in that category in the 1st half, but are 20th in the second half. Last night saw the Dodgers hand the Giants a third straight loss (9-5) and w/ the ESPN cameras rolling tonight, I don't expect them to let up. Even starts from Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto have not been immune to the Giants' recent futility. The Dodgers have had Bumgarner's number this year, another bad sign for SF fans, going 3-0 against him and last night saw them scored five times off him in five innings. Overall, the Dodgers scored a run in six of the eight innings in which they came up to bat. Cueto has had better success this year vs. LA (2-1 TSR), but also has only one win in the second half (his last time out). The Giants' bullpen has been struggling as well recently and allowed four more runs last night. Note that SF is now just 1-7 its last eight games played at Chavez Ravine. Starting opposite Cueto will be Rich Hill, making his much ballyhooed Dodgers debut. Hill, who came over from Oakland before the trade deadline, has not started a big league game since the All-Star Break. In spite of pitching for a very bad A's team, Hill has the numbers to justify the Dodgers getting him. In 14 starts, he has a 2.25 ERA and 1.092 WHIP. Theoretically, you'd expect him to benefit by moving to the National League where the pitcher has to come up to bat. Outside of Oakland's hideous ballpark, Hill has a 7-0 team start record this year. Remember that Dodger Stadium sees the fewest number of runs scored per game w/ visitors averaging a scant 3.5. Look for Hill to make a big impact in his Dodgers' debut. 10* LA Dodgers |
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08-24-16 | Rangers -183 v. Reds | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
8* Texas (7:10 ET): Among the critics, the Rangers have become one of the more divisive teams in all of baseball. They certainly have plenty of talent on hand, but the fact they are 20 games over .500 w/ a negative (-2) run differential is cause for concern. Still, one would think they should be able to take care of business against the hapless Reds. They failed to last night, however, losing 3-0. It was the third consecutive loss for the AL West leaders, but I have them bouncing back tonight behind Yu Darvish. Cincinnati has been respectable since the All-Star Break, but still languishes in last place in the NL Central and is some 18.5 games back of the Rangers' record. Also, the Reds have a -113 run differential (4th worst). Darvish's first start of 2016 did not come until May 28th. He's made nine starts subsequently and now stands w/ a 2.96 ERA and 1.397 WHIP. However, those numbers somewhat undersell the job he has done considering he has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season! He comes into tonight riding a streak of six consecutive quality outings and has been absolutely dominant in the last four w/ a 1.74 ERA and 22 K's in 20 2/3 IP. Exactly one week ago, he limited Oakland to only two runs in 7 IP. The amount of rest he's had coming into tonight should be considered a positive. Darvish has also dominated National League hitters throughout his career w/ a 7-2 record and 1.90 ERA in 11 starts. Back in 2013, he tossed 6 2/3 scoreless innings of four hit ball against Cincinnati. The Reds are surprisingly a .500 team at home this year (32-32), but Darvish is "due" for some better road fortune considering an 0-4 TSR has come in spite of a 2.66 ERA and 1.099 WHIP. Cincy is just 1-3 off a shutout win this year while Texas is 7-3 when off exactly three straight losses. Tim Adleman surprised w/ a five shutout innings his last time out for the Reds, but still has a 1.65 WHIP his L3 outings and has made it past that five inning mark only once in five tries. Prior to yday's win, Cincinnati was just 4-11 in Interleague Play this season, not to mention 17-38 since the start of 2014. The Rangers justify their highest price of the year on the road w/ a big win Wednesday. 8* Texas |
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08-24-16 | Orioles v. Nationals -153 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -153 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:05 ET): The Orioles took the first two games of this series, both in Baltimore, but by no means do I believe them to be the better team here. With the scene now shifting to the Nation's capital, I expect that the Nationals will begin to return the favor. Monday saw the Nats get a bit of a "raw deal" when scheduled starter Stephen Strasburg was scratched and sent to the disabled list. They still hung tough, losing only 4-3 in a game that saw each side collect only five hits. Tuesday was a more one-sided affair (O's won 8-1) as rookie Reynaldo Lopez picked a bad time to have his worst outing to date. But tonight's pitching matchup certainly seems to be in the Nats' favor, plus the change in venue is a really big deal considering the O's road record (just 27-34), a far cry from their 42-22 mark at Camden Yards. In a rotation that includes names like Strasburg and Max Scherzer, it is Tanner Roark that has the best ERA (2.91). Roark's WHIP (1.18) might be slightly worse than than either Strasburg's (1.11) or Scherzer's (0.96), but he's right there w/ them. Also, he comes in w/ a 16-9 TSR including 5-0 the L5 (all quality starts). His numbers have only gotten better as the season has worn on as his ERA & WHIP over the L3 starts are 1.77 and 1.082 respectively. Last time out, he did give up two home runs, but that was about it as the team went on to beat Atlanta, 7-6. I backed Roark that day as the price was way too cheap. I feel such is the case again tonight. Baltimore will also be w/o its ace for the foreseeable future. News of a Chris Tillman shoulder injury was handed down yday and could not have come at a worse time. While the team has gone 20-6 (.769) in all games started by Tillman this year, they are just 49-50 (.495) otherwise w/ no other starter on the staff having more than seven victories. Tonight's starter Wade Miley has looked like a questionable trade deadline pickup w/ a 9.94 ERA in four starts since coming over from Seattle. Last time out, he gave up six runs in just 1 2/3 IP and that was at home. In addition to the subpar road record, I also question the Orioles due to a mediocre run differential of just +26 for the year, which is way behind their competition (Boston, Toronto) in the AL East. For the sake of comparison, the Nats have outscored their opponents this year by a whopping 137 runs, the second best differential in the sport. 8* Washington |
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08-23-16 | Phillies v. White Sox -156 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
8* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): Remember when the White Sox were in first place in the AL Central? After posting a sterling 23-10 record to start the season, it's basically been downhill ever since. The club has gone 36-54 its L90 games and is essentially out of playoff contention. But I feel this is a series that will allow for them to get closer to .500. All year long, I've shown a desire to play against the Phillies. While it hasn't worked out 100% of the time, more often than not, I've chosen my spots wisely. Yes, the Phils are currently the 5th most profitable team to bet on in MLB (+7.0 net units YTD). But there's no running from the fact that their run differential is an odious -120, third worst in all of baseball. I'm on the home team in this one. This is the second straight sub-.500 opponent that the White Sox get to welcome into U.S. Cellular Field. Over the weekend, they took two of three from Oakland, winning both Saturday and Sunday. I was on them Sunday in a 4-2 victory. For all the struggles, Chicago still has a winning home record and that includes a 7-3 mark when a ML favorite in the -150 to -175 range. Tonight they'll send Carlos Rodon to the bump. Rodon has made three consecutive quality starts, posting a 2.00 ERA and 1.167 WHIP. Last time out, he allowed only two runs on eight hits in 6 IP vs. Cleveland, but that was not enough as the team fell 5-4. But Rodon's two starts before that both resulted in victories. His TSR when working on four days' rest is 11-4. Though they are nine games below .500, the Phils have actually had some decent fortune go their way this season as they are 25-16 in one-run games. Their run differential has them on a 49-win pace, something they've far exceeded. In fact, only Texas has a greater discrepancy between actual and expected wins. But I wouldn't expect much luck (or skill) from tonight's starter Jake Thompson, who in three starts has an 8.79 ERA and 1.605 WHIP. He allowed five runs in five innings his last time out. He's yet to last longer than five innings and tonight marks the first time he's had to face a lineup w/o the pitcher coming up to bat. The team is 3-11 its L14 IL road games vs. a lefty including 0-4 L4. 8* Chi White Sox |
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08-23-16 | Angels v. Blue Jays -146 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:05 ET): This is the first time that the Blue Jays and Angels have met this season. Clearly, the status of both teams in the American League pecking order has been well defined by this point. Toronto, even after dropping two of three over the weekend in Cleveland, is in a first place tie with Boston in the East. I have them on my short list for potential AL representatives in the World Series. Then you have the Angels, who are languishing in last in the West. The Halos' projected win total was actually 81, a number I thought was far too high coming into the year. I expect tonight's opener in Toronto to go as you might expect. One of many problems right now for the Angels is that they simply don't have very good starting pitching. Tonight's starter Tyler Skaggs is emblematic of that problem. Skaggs has just been brutal of late w/ a 9.88 ERA and 2.269 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which are team losses. The fact that the Toronto lineup is now getting healthier can't be good news for Skaggs either. Josh Donaldson returned Sunday and Kevin Pillar is expected back tonight. This is a group that averages 5.2 rpg vs. left-handed starters. They are actually only 17-18 in such games despite outscoring opponents by a full run per game. So that luck is definitely due to turn. Backing up Skaggs will be a bullpen that's w/o the injured Huston Street and Cam Bedrosian. The Angels did win in shutout fashion Sunday, 2-0 over the Yankees. But that result masks another issue, that being how dormant the offense was in that series. The Angels scored a total of only three runs at Yankee Stadium in three games, the first two of which were losses. That drops them to not just 9-21 L30 vs. the AL East, but 3-14 their last 17 games overall. All the trends seem to back up the Blue Jays, who are a perfect 5-0 off their previous five losses and 21-10 their L31 home games immediately following a road trip of seven days or more. The Angels have lost five straight series openers and 21 of 28 road games. Toronto will send knuckleballer RA Dickey to the hill tonight and he's pitched well in the past vs. LA, going 6-2 w/ a 3.88 ERA and 1.215 WHIP. There just isn't a single facet of the game where the Angels are superior to the Jays. 8* Toronto |
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08-22-16 | Braves v. Diamondbacks -136 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
8* Arizona (9:40 ET): The D'backs lost three of four over the weekend, to San Diego, as this nightmare season of theirs continues. Having signed Zack Greinke during the offseason, this front office had its eyes on the postseason for 2016. What a ridiculous notion that is in retrospect as the club is 51-73 w/ a -129 run differential. But speaking of nightmare seasons, you have the Braves, who are the only team with a worse run differential (-153) and corresponding to that is the worst record in all of baseball. Arizona has already swept Atlanta once this year and I've got them taking tonight's series opener as well. Somewhat surprising is that fact that the D'backs have actually been favored in five of the past seven games. They've won three of those times and if there's one opponent they absolutely should be favored against, it's this one. I'm well aware of the terrible 21-40 home record and that the prior sweep of the Braves came in Atlanta. But they are catching the Braves off a rare win (17-27 in that situation this year) here. The Braves are also just 2-10 in Monday games. Zack Godley looked good his last time out as he allowed just two runs and five hits in 7 1/3 IP vs. the Mets. He was a money line favorite in that start. Arizona can score (6.1 rpg), the question is always can they keep the opposing offense in check? Seeing as the Braves are MLB's lowest scoring team, I'd say the answer for Godley tonight is "yes." Atlanta had dropped seven in a row before beating Washington yday. They go with Mike Foltynewicz in this spot and he's managed just one quality start in his L6 outings. Foltynewicz has never beaten Arizona in three tries (0-3 TSR) and has a 6.23 ERA against them. On the road, he has a 4.86 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. The big issue there is that of the 14 home runs he's allowed this season, 11 have come on the road. I concede that this is an ugly matchup, but considering neither side has much to play for, I'll hang my hat on Arizona looking to bounce back at home. 8* Arizona |
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08-21-16 | Diamondbacks +112 v. Padres | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
10* Arizona (4:40 ET): This is certainly not the marquee game on Sunday's card. But for the D'backs, it's a chance to salvage a split and get out of last place. They won yday, 2-1, that coming after the Padres achieved victory in their final at-bat in each of the first two games. Last night, starter Robbie Ray did all he could to ensure victory by allowing only one San Diego hit over seven strong innings that included 13 strikeouts. That one hit was a solo home run. The Padres also didn't help themselves by committing four errors. For today, I relish the opportunity to go against Luis Perdomo, something I did successfully on Monday w/ Tampa Bay. Arizona qualifies as my top MLB play of the week! This last week has not gone well for the Padres. They've dropped six of eight overall and been outscored by 3.3 rpg over the last seven. In those L7 games, the lineup is batting a collective .199. This being a day game certainly does the home team no favors either; San Diego's 10-29 record in day games is - by far - the worst in all of baseball. Perdomo won't help either. He allowed the first three runs in the 8-2 loss Monday, lasting only 5 2/3 innings. His ERA and WHIP are 5.66 and 1.657 respectively in 13 starts this season. The team has lost the last three times Perdomo taken the mound (5.71 ERA, 1.961 WHIP). He's actually been his worst at home w/ a 6.23 ERA and 1.80 WHIP (four starts). The trends suggest San Diego really "blew one" on Saturday as they are just 9-27 after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. They are also 1-4 L5 after scoring two runs or less themselves. The entirety of Arizona's offense yday came as a result of two throwing errors by Clayton Richard. But, I don't think that there's any denying which of the two teams here has the more potent lineup. The D'backs have averaged 6.3 rpg while batting a collective .299 the L7 games. If we get a quality start from Braden Shipley, then we'll be in very good shape. Shipley may have been rocked his last time out, but that was also the second straight time the Mets were seeing him. In his three starts prior, he'd twice thrown six-plus innings of scoreless ball and allowed only two runs and 12 hits overall in 19 innings of work. San Diego has lost its previous three series. 10* Arizona |
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08-21-16 | A's v. White Sox -136 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
8* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): After being embarrassed in the series opener (lost 9-0), the White Sox came back w/ a convincing win of their own on Saturday, beating the A's 9-2. A pitching change for Sunday (Hahn to Neal) means little for an Oakland side that is way out of contention and probably the worst that the American League has to offer. They come into today having been outscored by 99 runs over the course of the year. Only four teams have a worse differential (Phillies, Braves, Reds, D'backs) and as you can see, all reside in the National League. Overall, the A's have dropped six of their last seven. Realistically, Chicago's playoff chances are shot as well, but this is a game and series they should win. Let's talk about White Sox starter Jose Quintana. While Chris Sale (won yday) is the name that gets the most attention in this rotation, Quintana actually has a slightly better ERA and comparable WHIP. Like Sale, Quintana is a lefty and that means trouble for an Oakland team that is just 30-62 its last 92 games vs. a southpaw starter. Here at home is where Quintana has been at his best w/ a 0.871 WHIP in nine starts. He deserves far better than a 5-4 TSR at U.S. Cellular Field and also far better than a 12-12 TSR overall considering a 2.85 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in all starts this season. Those numbers rank 4th and 9th respectively among all A.L. starters! The record would be much better were in not for the worst run support in the league. He comes into today off six consecutive quality outings. After losing to Sale on Saturday, the A's have lost seven straight games when facing a starter w/ a WHIP better than 1.15. So, Quintana should have little to worry about. Like I said earlier, Oakland making a pitching change from Jesse Hahn to Zach Neal is of little consequence to me. Granted, I would have loved to go against Hahn, who carries a 13.17 ERA and 2.926 WHIP on the road. But Neal hardly installs any fear himself w/ a 5.19 ERA. His numbers get much worse once you factor out relief appearances as his three starts have seen him allow 13 runs in 14 2/3 IP. He allowed five in 5 1/3 last Sunday vs. Seattle (A's lost 8-4) and this will be the first time Neal has started on the road since May when he allowed seven runs in four innings, also against Seattle. 8* Chi White Sox |
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08-21-16 | A's v. White Sox -165 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 21 m | Show |
8* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): After being embarrassed in the series opener (lost 9-0), the White Sox came back w/ a convincing win of their own on Saturday, beating the A's 9-2. A pitching change for Sunday (Hahn to Neal) means little for an Oakland side that is way out of contention and probably the worst that the American League has to offer. They come into today having been outscored by 99 runs over the course of the year. Only four teams have a worse differential (Phillies, Braves, Reds, D'backs) and as you can see, all reside in the National League. Overall, the A's have dropped six of their last seven. Realistically, Chicago's playoff chances are shot as well, but this is a game and series they should win. Let's talk about White Sox starter Jose Quintana. While Chris Sale (won yday) is the name that gets the most attention in this rotation, Quintana actually has a slightly better ERA and comparable WHIP. Like Sale, Quintana is a lefty and that means trouble for an Oakland team that is just 30-62 its last 92 games vs. a southpaw starter. Here at home is where Quintana has been at his best w/ a 0.871 WHIP in nine starts. He deserves far better than a 5-4 TSR at U.S. Cellular Field and also far better than a 12-12 TSR overall considering a 2.85 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in all starts this season. Those numbers rank 4th and 9th respectively among all A.L. starters! The record would be much better were in not for the worst run support in the league. He comes into today off six consecutive quality outings. After losing to Sale on Saturday, the A's have lost seven straight games when facing a starter w/ a WHIP better than 1.15. So, Quintana should have little to worry about. Like I said earlier, Oakland making a pitching change from Jesse Hahn to Zach Neal is of little consequence to me. Granted, I would have loved to go against Hahn, who carries a 13.17 ERA and 2.926 WHIP on the road. But Neal hardly installs any fear himself w/ a 5.19 ERA. His numbers get much worse once you factor out relief appearances as his three starts have seen him allow 13 runs in 14 2/3 IP. He allowed five in 5 1/3 last Sunday vs. Seattle (A's lost 8-4) and this will be the first time Neal has started on the road since May when he allowed seven runs in four innings, also against Seattle. 8* Chi White Sox |
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08-20-16 | Dodgers -148 v. Reds | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -148 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (7:10 ET): In the thick of a playoff race, the Dodgers can't afford to be dropping games to the likes of the Phillies and Reds. Yet, that's precisely what they've done over the last two days, losing 5-4 in the City of Brotherly Love on Thursday and then 9-2 in the Queen City last night. With the Giants winning each of the L2 days, LA now finds itself one-half game back in the NL West. But, last night's result aside, let us not forget that "the Reds are the Reds." This is a team that's now matched its longest win streak all season at four games and is -113 in run differential for the year (tied for 3rd worst). After being embarrassed last night, I fully anticipate the Dodgers bouncing back here. They are still 9-1 L10 games vs. Cincinnati. The Dodgers are starting to get healthier. Of course, they won't rest easy until Clayton Kershaw returns. But until then, they need to get better efforts from the starting rotation than what Bud Norris gave Friday. Enter Brett Anderson, whose 2016 debut was a disaster as he allowed five runs on five hits and lasted only one inning Sunday vs. Pittsburgh. But Anderson has pitched well previously against the Reds, allowing just 3 ER in 12 1/3 IP. He won both starts w/ Cincy hitters batting just .224 against him. Again, Cincy has not produced a win streak of more than four games all season. They are also just 8-17 vs. left-handed starters, including 1-4 their L5 at home. I expect Anderson to turn it around this evening. Cincinnati will go w/ Brandon Finnegan, whose sample size is large enough that we can start to draw conclusions. In 24 starts, his TSR is 9-15 and he has a 4.54 ERA and 1.418 WHIP. That's all very subpar to say the least and the last time he went longer than six innings was well before the All-Star Break. Remember that the Reds have a very bad bullpen. The team is also just 3-8 in Finnegan's L11 starts here at Great American Ballpark. He's allowed a total of four home runs in his last two outings. Again, Cincinnati is just a very bad team. They're only 28-60 the L88 games vs. teams with a winning record. I can't see the Dodgers dropping two in a row to this lowly opponent. 8* LA Dodgers |
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08-20-16 | Mets v. Giants -143 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -143 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (4:05 ET): Thanks to their own win and a Dodgers loss, the Giants are back in first place in the NL West by one-half game. This afternoon sees them looking to continue to take advantage of the rapidly fading Mets. San Francisco had its own issues coming into this series, namely a 9-21 record since the All-Star Break. But they look to be turning that around as they've beaten the Mets B2B days, scoring 18 runs in the process. Last night saw them win in dominant fashion, 8-1. For the Mets, that result leaves them w/ a 6-12 record in August as they've now lost three straight and 7 of 10 overall. Today's game being an afternoon affair is a big deal as the Giants own MLB's best record in day games at 27-15. Go with the home team. On paper, the acquisition of lefty Matt Moore was a good one for the Giants. Assuming the team makes the postseason, Moore would be a deadly #3 starter behind Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto. Unfortunately though, he's still yet to taste victory with his new team. In three starts, he's posted a 4.50 ERA and 1.444 WHIP as he's allowed nine runs and 14 walks in 18 innings. Theoretically, you would expect him to improve moving over to the National League. He did just allow five runs in his last start, but a date w/ the Mets is just what "the doctor ordered" from where I sit as they rank 29th in runs scored, 29th in team batting average and 26th in OBP. With Jay Bruce now only 12 for 68 at the plate since coming over from Cincinnati, he'll reportedly be out of the lineup on Saturday. After being swept here at home by Pittsburgh, the offense has really picked up the Giants the L2 days. They've scored the 18 runs on 32 hits, raising the team batting average to .328 over the past week. Day games have seen them outscore the opposition by 1.2 rpg and the pitcher they face today (Bartolo Colon) has an 0-5 TSR his L5 starts vs. the NL West. Colon hasn't pitched at AT&T Park since last July when he gave up 10 hits and the Mets were shutout. The team has now sunk below .500 (60-62) w/ a negative run differential (-16) and has the look of a group is disarray. They've allowed a total of 46 runs in the L5 games. 8* San Francisco |
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08-19-16 | Diamondbacks -141 v. Padres | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -141 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
10* Arizona (10:40 ET): Last night's opener in San Diego saw the home team put a halt to a five-game losing skid. But that 9-8 win for the Padres is not likely to be a sign of things to come. Consider that the nine runs they scored last night surpassed their entire offensive output during those previous five games (scored only six runs). Tonight, they'll have to face Zack Greinke. While Greinke might not be having the kind of season the Arizona front office envisioned, he does have an 8-1 team start record on the road. He's also pretty much dominated the Padres throughout his career, going 7-1 in 14 starts (11-3 TSR) w/ a 1.91 ERA and 0.830 WHIP. As we know from previous discussions of Arizona this year, they have a very atypical home-road split w/ the record being far better away from Chase Field. |
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08-19-16 | Nationals -141 v. Braves | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:35 ET): Why wouldn't I come back w/ the Nats again today? I had them last night as they beat the Braves 8-2. They're now 9-1 head to head vs. Atlanta in 2016. As I said in yday's analysis, that head to head record should not come as any shock considering where these two division rivals currently reside in the standings. There's a compelling arguement to be made that Washington has actually underperformed this season, given that they have the run differential (+143) of 77-win team (actual record is "only" 71-49). Only the Cubs have a better win percentage/run differential. Meanwhile, the Braves have the worst record (44-77) and run differential (-151) in all of baseball. The mismatch continues Friday. I'll again reprise yday's analysis by mentioning Atlanta's home record is now 18-41. That's a net loss of 19.5 units. They've been outscored by an average of 1.5 rpg here at Turner Field, which is just awful. Washington, on the other hand, continues to be road warriors w/ the second best away recrord in MLB at 35-26. That includes a 10-4 mark when in the -125 to -150 price range. By the way, this mismatch extends far beyond just 2016. The Nats are now 23-5 their last 28 games vs. the Braves. It's not like Atlanta is playing well now either; they've dropped seven of their last eight and been outscored 58-28 in the process! With this being such a mismatch on paper, the Braves need some sort of aid in the pitching matchup. They do have Julio Teheran going tonight and while the numbers clearly illustrate he's been their best pitcher, his team start record remains among the very worst in all of baseball (5-16). That's due to a pathetic Braves offense that has scored three runs or fewer in 15 of those 21 starts. This will also be Teheran's first big-league start since spending time on the DL. He is 0-5 at home w/ a 1-11 TSR. Teheran will be opposed by Tanner Roark, the "silent success" of this Washington rotation as he comes having won each of his L4 starts, the last one being vs. these very Braves. He allowed just one run on five hits on Sunday, improving to 5-1 w/ a 1.77 ERA in nine career starts vs. Atlanta. 8* Washington |
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08-19-16 | Dodgers -152 v. Reds | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -152 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:35 ET): Why wouldn't I come back w/ the Nats again today? I had them last night as they beat the Braves 8-2. They're now 9-1 head to head vs. this division rival in 2016. As I said in yday's analysis, that head to head record should not come as any shock considering where these two teams currently reside in the standings. There's a compelling argument to be made that Washington has actually under-performed this season, given that they have the run differential (+143) of 77-win team (actual record is "only" 71-49). Only the Cubs have a better win percentage/run differential. Meanwhile, the Braves have the worst record (44-77) and run differential (-151) in all of baseball. The mismatch continues Friday. |
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08-18-16 | Nationals -130 v. Braves | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
9* Washington (7:10 ET): Given their respective places in the NL East, it should come as little shock to find that the Nationals are 8-1 against the Braves this season. If this "history lesson" sounds familiar, it's because it wasn't even a week ago that I took the Nats to beat the Braves, citing a similarly low price range. Washington won that game 7-6 and then took the series w/ a 9-1 win the following day. They come off B2B losses in Colorado, but should get on back track here. I say that not only because of the head to head domination, but also the fact the Atlanta has - by far - the worst home record in baseball at 18-40. Minnesota, the worst team in the American League, just came here to Turner Field and took a pair of games in dominant fashion. I have Washington rated as the second best team in all of baseball, so they should have little difficulty tonight, or this entire weekend for that matter. Just like Saturday's play on the Nats, the money line here is simply way too low. Again, it's because Reynaldo Lopez is starting. But, the oddsmakers clearly didn't learn their lesson from the last time around as Lopez was able to go seven innings w/ allowing only one run on five hits. The game didn't get "close" until late. Meanwhile, counterpart Rob Whalen allowed six runs in just five innings of work in that game. Lopez vs. Whalen is the pitching matchup again tonight and I see no reason why the result would be any different the second time around. Through three starts, Whalen has a 7.31 ERA and 1.250 WHIP. Yesterday marked just the second time all season that Washington allowed 10+ runs. They are 8-3 coming off such a game the L3 seasons. Meanwhile, yday marked the ninth time this year that Atlanta has allowed 10 or more runs. They are just 2-6 this year in this situation. Even after losing the L2 days, the Nats still have a 34-26 road record, which is the third best win percentage in MLB. They are 5-1 their last six road games against teams whose win percentage is below .400 at home. Admittedly, that's only Arizona and Atlanta, but no one has been worse than the latter at home this year and incredibly that 18-40 home record for the Braves has seen them get outscored by an average of 1.4 rpg! 9* Washington |
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08-18-16 | White Sox v. Indians -182 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
6* Cleveland (7:10 ET): In addition to liking the Over, I'm also on the Indians here. Remember that some times one team can take care of the Over by itself. Like Tampa Bay did for me on Tuesday in a 15-1 win over San Diego. I'm not guaranteeing that this one ends up that lopsided, but given the longshot odds on the White Sox, it certainly could. I should also point out that Danny Salazar was dominant back in June when he went 5-0 in five starts w/ a 1.91 ERA. In the five subsequent starts, things didn't go nearly as well, but that can probably be attributed to the elbow issues he was experiencing. One can only assume those issues are now clear and Salazar will regain his previous form. He's won both starts against Chicago this year, allowing just three runs and seven hits in 12 innings. Yesterday's result also snapped a seven-game losing streak for the White Sox against the Indians. In all seven games, Chicago was held to just three runs or fewer. Indians are 5-0 off their previous five losses while the White Sox are 1-6 off their last seven wins. Look for the Indians' offense (see 'Over' analysis) to carry the team in this one. 6* Cleveland |
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08-17-16 | Mets v. Diamondbacks -110 | Top | 5-13 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
10* Arizona (9:40 ET): With Noah Syndergaard on the hill last night, the Mets were able to salvage a game here in the desert, but the fact remains this sinking ship is going down fast. The magic of last year's World Series run simply hasn't been there in 2016. The contingent from Queens has seen its run production dip dramatically, particularly on the road. Tuesday's 7-5 win was the Mets' first this year against the Diamondbacks, a brutal reminder of opportunities lost this season. They are still only three games out of the Wild Card in the N.L., but again, it just doesn't seem like their year. The offense ranks 29th in runs scored (ahead of only Atlanta) and they don't have one of their better starting pitchers going tonight. The Mets offense has really bad this year. If it seems like I'm beating a "dead horse" here, then I apologize. But this is one of just four teams in baseball that doesn't average at least 4.0 rpg. They've scored 65 runs fewer than 21st place team in runs scored. On the road, is where the real decline has hit. They've dropped from 4th (last year) to 27th in runs per game there. Now, we have seen them score 13 runs in the two games so far here in Arizona. But tonight they'll be facing an unfamiliar name in Zach Godley, who returns from bullpen duty where he held opponents to a .174 average his L3 appearances. It also must be pointed out that the Mets are just 3-13 off a win coming into tonight. Starting pitching was a real strength last year for the Mets, but that same group has been hit by injury in 2016 and outside of Syndergaard, it's been regression across the board. Jon Niese has been brought in for a second tour of duty (pitched here for eight years), but he's not the same pitcher he once was. Following a 5-0 TSR in April, nine of his next 13 starts ended up in losses for his previous team, the Pirates. He comes in w/ a 6.45 ERA and 1.752 WHIP his last seven starts. Arizona has had no problem getting on base in this series as they've collected 25 hits and five walks. Once they're on base, they've largely run wild. They had four stolen bases yday, increasing the YTD total vs. the Mets to 19. It looks like sharp money is moving this line in the direction of Arizona, who has gone up as a favorite despite getting fewer # of bets. 10* Arizona |
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08-17-16 | Dodgers -166 v. Phillies | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (7:05 ET): I rode the Dodgers to a dominant 15-5 win yday and will come right back w/ them again tonight. Again, I must reiterate just how bad the Phillies actually are. Sure, they might be "only" eight games below .500, but that doesn't even begin to tell the "real story." They have the run differential (-108) of a 48-win club (actual record is 56-64). Their discrepancy between actual and expected wins is the largest in the entire National League. That run differential is actually fourth worst in all of baseball. In yday's analysis, I stated that they would be unable to handle this step up in class and they didn't. It'll be more of the same Wednesday. |
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08-17-16 | Nationals -154 v. Rockies | Top | 10-12 | Loss | -154 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
8* Washington (3:05 ET): This is the finale of a three-game set here at Coors Field. The Nats took Monday's opener 5-4, which was also a winner for me. Tuesday (no play from me) featured a lengthy rain delay (2 hours) and after it was over the Rockies' bullpen took control. It ended up being a 6-2 win for the home team, which snapped a four-game losing streak. But the bottom line is Colorado is still only 2-8 its L10 games and hasn't won B2B games in two weeks. I fully anticipate Washington bouncing back here as they have Stephen Strasburg on the mound. While Strasburg is off B2B rough outings, he's been outstanding on the road (as has the team) all season long. Last night aside, the "Coors Field effect" is not enough to counteract the talent discrepancy that exists between these two ballclubs. I said it in Monday's analysis and I'll say it again now. Washington has emerged as the second best team in baseball, behind the Cubs. They enter Wednesday w/ a 70-48 record, having outscored opponents by 139 runs. That run differential works out to a win expectation of 75 games, so an argument can be made that they've actually underperformed to this point. However, there is no arguing that the Nats have been a fantastic road team this year. Their 34-25 record away from home is the second best mark in MLB. They are one of just three teams to average at least 5.0 rpg away from home and one would think this venue will serve to further aid them offensively. I like the prospect of them facing Jon Gray, who has been a disaster in his L2 starts, giving up 15 runs in just 8 IP. Gray has a 4.55 ERA in 21 starts overall this season. Strasburg himself will be looking to bounce back from B2B poor efforts. But he's often saved his best work for the road where he is 8-0 in nine starts w/ a 1.70 ERA and 0.977 WHIP. In three career starts at Coors Field, he's never allowed a home run. In two starts against the Rockies last year (one home, one here), all Strasburg gave up were two runs, one unearned, in 14 IP. He allowed just five hits total and had a 17-0 KW rate. The Nationals are 4-0 off their previous four losses while the Rockies are 0-7 off the L7 games where they scored 5+ runs. This looks like an easy win for the road team on getaway day. 8* Washington |
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08-16-16 | A's v. Rangers -149 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
8* Texas (8:05 ET): The Rangers, like the Phillies, are an overachiever. Why then would I be willing to endorse one and not the other? Well, the big difference is that the Rangers are at least a mediocre team (by the numbers) with an excellent record. In fact, they come into Tuesday with the best record in the entire American League (70-50)! That's in spite of a pedestrian +2 run differential for the year. Maybe that discrepancy is cause for concern down the line (i.e. playoffs), but not here against the downtrodden A's, whom they defeated yday by a score of 5-2. Oakland has the worst run differential in the whole A.L. (-99), so by comparison, Texas' own run differential should not be scoffed at in this particular series. |
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08-16-16 | Dodgers -160 v. Phillies | Top | 15-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
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08-15-16 | Nationals -170 v. Rockies | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:10 ET): The Nationals took two of three from the Braves over the weekend, punctuating the series w/ a 9-1 win on Sunday. Bryce Harper returned to the lineup and paid immediate dividends with an RBI double. To me, the Nats have clearly emerged as the second best team in baseball, behind only the Cubs. They have a +142 run differential, which is indicative of a 75-win team. Thus, even at 69-47 for the year, you could make a case the NL East leaders are underachieving. Their next opponent, Colorado, is another underachiever. But not to the same degree as their own YTD run differential of +13 only says they should be closer to .500. Getting swept in Philadelphia was not a "good look" and I think the Rockies will "rue the opportunities lost" there as they now must step up in class. When heading into the thin air of Denver, pitching can always be a big question mark. But despite his pedestrian 14-10 team start record, I still have plenty of faith in Nats' starter Max Scherzer. He has a 2.80 ERA and 0.910 WHIP in his 24 starts this year. Those numbers rank 8th and 2nd respectively among all qualified starters. If that's not impressive enough, Scherzer's WHIP has dipped down to 0.727 his L3 starts. Last time out, he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning, but still ended up losing his first decision since July 4th. That was against a far stronger opponent, however (Cleveland). Scherzer also now leads all of baseball w/ 208 K's (5th straight season w/ 200+) and has struck out at least 10 batters in 7 of his past 11 outings. Even here at Coors Field, I believe Scherzer can be dominant. The last time he started here, he allowed only 3 ER in 6 IP. Scherzer also figures to get plenty of run support. Colorado gives up an average of 6.3 rpg here at home and will be sending Jorge De La Rosa to the bump Monday. De La Rosa has a 5.97 ERA and 1.759 WHIP here at home. He's been a bit better of late, but still posted a negative KW rate over his L2 starts. His team has dropped seven of eight overall, so they're hardly in fine form. Washington has actually won six of its last eight games here in Colorado, thus the price range is justified. They are 15-5 as a road favorite of -150 or higher on the money line this year and 38-13 in that range the L3 seasons. 8* Washington |
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08-15-16 | Padres v. Rays -165 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Sunday, the Rays were fortunate enough to face the horrible Luis Severino. It turns out that facing a pitcher w/ an 0-8 TSR, 7.78 ERA and 1.678 WHIP was just what "the doctor ordered." The Rays knocked Severino around for seven runs in 3 2/3 innings and rolled to a 12-3 victory, just their second in the last seven games. I see more improved fortune coming their way here as the Padres pay a visit. It bears repeating just how dominant the AL has been in Interleague Play through the years, winning every season series since 2003. This year, the record is 131-113 in favor of the Junior Circuit. The Padres' five wins in IL play are tied for the fewest in all of MLB. Clearly, I like this matchup for Tampa Bay. Over the L2 days, San Diego didn't do a whole lot of scoring ... or hitting for that matter. They were held to just three runs total in B2B losses to the Mets and yday saw them no-hit for seven-plus innings by Steven Matz. That was the first time in more than a month that the Mets won B2B games. That's certainly not a good sign moving forward for the Padres, who are 27th in team batting average and 29th in OBP. Even the addition of the designated hitter to their lineup figures to be a "non-factor" here due to going up against the resurgent Drew Smyly. Smyly is coming off four consecutive quality starts, allowing 2 ER every time out. His last start at home saw him finish w/ a 10-1 KW rate as he held the Royals to only five hits in 7 IP. Smyly's very respectable 1.049 WHIP at home tells me that he is deserving of far better than a 1-6 record here at Tropicana Field. Note the team has now won his L3 starts overall. He also does a reasonably good job at limiting the home run ball, which is key when facing the Padres, a team that is 5-21 in IL play when facing a left-handed starter. San Diego counters w/ Luis Perdomo, who has not fared well of late (6.23 ERA, 1.961 WHIP L3 starts). Last time out, he allowed six runs in just five innings. Including his time spent as a reliever this season, Perdomo has a 6.80 ERA. While the Padres are playing their second straight series out East, the Rays return home after a week out on the road. They are 5-1 this season in their first home game back following a road trip of at least seven days. 8* Tampa Bay |
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08-14-16 | Orioles v. Giants -150 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -150 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (4:05 ET): Following yday's easy 6-2 win over the Orioles, I'm coming right back with the Giants on Sunday. I thought it was downright shocking that San Fran had lost five straight times w/ Madison Bumgarner on the hill going into Saturday. That streak ended as the big lefty delivered seven scoreless innings for us. Now, there's a similar situation to rectify w/ Johnny Cueto, the other key cog in the front end of the rotation. Though still sporting an outstanding 18-5 TSR this year, Cueto has not won a decision since the All-Star Break. Like Bumgarner yday, this has created a situation where he and the team are being undervalued. The Giants are a league-best 27-13 in day games this season. Baltimore, despite its current standing, is a team that I just don't believe is as good as it's record. You can talk about the Giants being only 8-17 since the Break, but they've still outscored opponents by 51 runs this season. Baltimore is "only" at +37 and now a game below SF in the standings. Last night's result also dropped the O's out of first place in the competive AL East, one-half game back of Toronto. I will continue to point to the team's lousy record outside of Camden Yards (now 26-34) as a cause for concern. That includes a 2-11 mark when priced between +125 and +150 on the money line. Both Toronto and Boston have far better YTD run differentials than Baltimore right now as well, making a case they might only be the third best team in the division. Though recent returns might be less than desirable, Cueto is still having himself an outstanding 2016. Like I said earlier, the team has gone 18-5 in his 23 starts and he currently ranks just outside the Top 5 (7th) in terms of units earned among all starting pitchers. A big key here is that he'll be working on five days rest. He has a 6-1 TSR with that much time off between starts. His L2 starts were both on the road, but at home he has a 2.63 ERA and 1.009 WHIP. Cueto also comes in w/ the best ERA (2.59) in Interleague Play among all active pitchers w/ 27+ IL starts. Baltimore counters w/ mid-season pickup Wade Miley and might there be a little "buyer's remorse" going on here? He's 0-2 (4.91 ERA) since coming over in the trade w/ Seattle. This would appear to be a bad matchup for Miley considering SF is 35-17 its L52 home games when facing a southpaw starter, including 7-1 against American League opponents. 8* San Francisco |
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08-14-16 | Rockies -121 v. Phillies | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -121 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
10* Colorado (1:35 ET): I'm quite disappointed w/ how the Rockies have performed this weekend. I say this not as someone who's "salty" over losing w/ them on Friday, but rather, backed by the fact that came into this three-game set in Philadelphia as the far better team. Despite being three games below .500 (entering Friday), Colorado had actually outscored their opponents by 20 runs over the course of the season. Sure, that number has taken a bit of a hit over the L2 days, but still having a positive run differential should mean "something." Conversely, you have the Phillies, who are now eight games within .500 despite actually being outscored by 99 runs this season (4th worst run differential in MLB). I see Colorado rectifying these curious cases w/ a big win Sunday as they avoid the sweep. In my analysis for the series opener on Friday, I made mention of the Rockies' surprisingly good team ERA on the road. Even w/ the disappointing returns of the last two days, the staff still remains a solid seventh in road ERA (3.82) and there's a big gap between them and eighth place. A big contributor to this unlikely success has been today's starter, Tyler Chatwood. For much of his career, Chatwood was a pitcher you'd look to fade. But his numbers this year show that when you take him out of Coors Field, he can be quite good. He has yet to lose a single road start (6-0!) in 2016 in nine tries (8-1 TSR) and has a 1.30 ERA and 1.012 WHIP. Five of his last seven starts have come at home, but the two that didn't saw him allow only 2 ER in 12 IP. Chatwood has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any road start and eight times he has given up one or less! Here, he'll be facing an offense which ranks 27th or lower in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging. On the other side of the ledger, you have Phillies starter Adam Morgan, who will be making his first start since the All-Star Break. He has not won at home all year and the team is 0-9 in his last nine starts overall! There's no "hard luck" here either as over his last seven outings he has a 7.78 ERA and 1.757 WHIP. It was him allowing six runs to these Rockies on 7.7 that took him out of the starting rotation. I'll look for more of the same in his return Sunday. While the Rockies are 8-2 off a loss w/ Chatwood starting, the Phillies are just 3-12 in their L15 games following a win, period. 10* Colorado |
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08-13-16 | Orioles v. Giants -148 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
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08-13-16 | Tigers v. Rangers -160 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -160 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
8* Texas (8:05 ET): There was a 2 hour, 42 minute rain delay last night in Arlington, but for both the Rangers and myself, it was worth waiting out. I had Texas and they came through for me w/ an 8-5 win in the opener of this three-game series vs. Detroit. For many of the same reasons, I'll come right back with the AL West leaders again on Saturday. Detroit, after winning 10 of 11 games, has begun to regress. They've now lost five in a row, all on the road, and have generally been noncompetitive in doing so. Three times they've been held to one run or less and last night saw them fall behind 8-1 after just five innings. Tonight's pitching matchup most certainly appears to favor the home team w/ Cole Hamels facing Matt Boyd. |
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08-13-16 | White Sox v. Marlins -170 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -170 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
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08-13-16 | Braves v. Nationals -166 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:05 ET): Be aware that there was an overnight pitching change for the Nationals, who will now go w/ rookie Reynaldo Lopez. He certainly can't perform any worse than ace Stephen Strasburg did last night as Strasburg gave up six runs in just 5 1/3 IP. The Braves won, 8-5, which was not just their first win over the Nats this year (0-6 previous), but it was their first win in D.C. since the 2014 season! A bounce back from the home side thus sounds logical and suffice to say Washington seems a tad bit undervalued by the oddsmakers in this one. There has been only 17 times all year that the Braves have won consecutive games and let us not forget that they sport the worst record (44-72) and run differential (-127) in the game today. Washington, meanwhile, has clearly emerged as the second best team in baseball behind the Cubs. Their already excellent 67-47 WL record somewhat undersells just how well they've performed as they have the run differential (+133) of what you would expect from a 73-win team. Only the Cubs (381) have given up fewer runs than the Nats' 402 and that's not only owed to starting pitching, but a bullpen which boasts a MLB-best 3.01 ERA. Thus, don't expect Lopez to be asked to do much this evening. Granted, he didn't do much in either of his first two big-league starts, which took place last month against the Giants and Dodgers. But those were also two formidable opponents he was facing there. Here, he will be going up against the lowest-scoring offense in all of baseball. Atlanta also turns to a rookie making his third career start here as Rob Whalen will get the starting nod. He somehow has a 2-0 team start record despite a 5.73 ERA. He's also given up one home run in both outings. While the Braves have actually played .500 ball (26-26) over their L52 games, I don't think for a second they will be able to keep that pace up. Washington remains 17-5 their L22 division games and should go back to dominating a foe whose number they'd had all year. The first six head to head battles saw Atlanta get held to four runs or fewer every time, so they should clearly regress offensively tonight. 8* Washington |
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08-12-16 | Tigers v. Rangers -180 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
6* Texas (8:05 ET): The good fortune that the Rangers have typically enjoyed took a turn yday afternoon as they lost 12-9 to Colorado after giving up five runs in the top of the eighth after they had just taken the lead w/ a four-run inning of their own. That result came on the heels of three consecutive wins over the Rockies where the Rangers didn't take the lead for good until the eighth inning or later. Quite frankly, while this team finds itself in a "good situation" right now (20 games above .500, best record in the American League), they should feel fortunate to be there as their YTD run differential is only +5 (8th best in AL). That all being said, I'm going with them tonight as they host a Detroit team that's clearly regressing following its own surprising surge. The Tigers closed July w/ six straight wins and at one point had won 10 of 11 games. They were closing in on Cleveland in the AL Central, but then they got swept up in Seattle. This long trip back to the Central Time Zone probably does them no favors here and while they did have Thursday off, note that the team has a losing record when playing w/ an off-day anyway. Also, and this is quite incredible, but going back to the start of the 2014 season we've seen the Tigers lose 14 consecutive road games when priced in the +175 to +200 range! Simply put, when the oddsmakers don't like their chances, they don't win. Another reason not to like the Tigers' chances here is the fact they'll be sending Anibal Sanchez to the bump. His nine starts away from home have resulted in a 1-8 record for the team as he's produced a woeful 7.77 ERA and 1.727 WHIP. His last two starts, while both good, came in the Motor City. Texas counters w/ Yu Darvish, who has been in fine form ever since returning from the disabled list. He's allowed 3 ER or less in all five starts and the last one was the best yet as he blanked Houston for seven innings and limited them to just five hits. His KW rate over the L4 starts is 34-2! Darvish has won all five career starts against the Rangers (3.60 ERA, 1.143 WHIP) while Sanchez is 2-3 in his five career starts vs. Texas (6.93 ERA, 1.743 WHIP). Something to keep in mind is that the Rangers already swept the Tigers in Detroit earlier this year (back in May) and are a much better team at home where their record is 35-18. 6* Texas |
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08-12-16 | Rockies -134 v. Phillies | Top | 6-10 | Loss | -134 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
8* Colorado (7:05 ET): Throughout the season, my stance on the Phillies has remained pretty consistent. This is a bad team that is even worse than their record indicates. Being 10 games below .500 is nothing to "write home about," but my point is that the Phils should feel quite fortunate to have that record considering they've been outscored by 106 runs over the course of the season (3rd worst run differential in all of MLB). The "luck" has come in the form of a 23-15 record in one-run games, which includes 6-3 in extra innings. In terms of actual vs. expected wins, there's been no bigger overachiever in the National League than this one (+8). Meanwhile, poor Colorado sits three games below .500 despite the fact they've actually outscored opponents this year (+20 run differential!). They are 8-15 in one-run games and 0-3 in extra innings. The Rockies are the better team here and I'll call for a reversal of fortunes. This series will be a steep drop in class for the Rockies after just concluding a four-game set w/ Texas. After losing the first three games to the Rangers, two at home and one in Arlington, they won on the road yday by a score of 12-9. This franchise has always been built around a strong offense, but did you know that in 2016 their staff sports the SIXTH lowest ERA (3.71) on the road in all of baseball? That's really surprising. Tonight it will be Jon Gray on the mound. While he's off a dismal showing vs. Miami (at home) on 8.7, note that previous to that Gray had allowed just 2 ER across four starts, giving up only 18 hits in 26 IP. He'll benefit here from facing a Phillies offense that has scored the third fewest runs in all of baseball. Furthermore, the Phils rank 29th in team batting average (only .220 at home!), 29th in slugging and last in OBP. Starting here for the home team will be Jake Thompson. This marks his second career start at the big league level and the first didn't go well as he surrendered six runs in only 4 1/3 innings against a light-hitting San Diego team. This Rockies lineup has three of the top 10 hitters in the league, in terms of batting average! Yes, the Phillies won yday (6-2 over the Dodgers), but they are just 7-22 off their previous 29 victories. Colorado rarely finds itself in this price range on the road, but consider that the last time they faced a team w/ a losing record (Atlanta in the first series post-Break), they swept the series. 8* Colorado |
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08-11-16 | Yankees v. Red Sox -123 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -123 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:10 ET): Well, the Red Sox let me down last night, losing 9-4 to the Yankees. It was a game they led 4-1 heading into the seventh inning, but then the wheels came off in the seventh and eighth where New York scored a total of eight times off the Boston bullpen. The fact that the Yankees lost their starter (Nathan Eovaldi) after just one inning reemphasizes what a crushing loss that was for the home team. But they get a chance to bounce back and take the series on Thursday. There has been a pitching change as Eduardo Rodriguez goes in place of the still-injured Steven Wright. That has no bearing whatsoever on this play as I'm banking on the fact that Boston is still the much better ballclub here. This whole A-Rod saga is a big mess for Yankees manager Joe Girardi. Rodriguez's career will mercifully come to an end this weekend and for Yankees' brass, that time cannot come soon enough. A-Rod is a shell of the player he once was, which is evident by the fact he has only four hits in his L37 plate appearances (.108). He flied out in a pinch-hitting role last night. Now word comes down that he will be in the starting lineup tonight. There's no two ways about it; Rodriguez has been one of the worst hitters in the game this season and him being in the lineup absolutely makes the Yankees a worse team. By the way, having Eduardo Rodriguez going for Boston may work to our advantage as he's 4-1 all-time vs. the team in pinstripes w/ a 2.01 ERA. The Red Sox are dealing with some injuries here, as Mookie Betts and David Ortiz both left the game Wednesday. That doesn't sound good, but I'll take my chances with the top offense in the game facing Michael Pineda, who has never really performed well against Boston in the past. In 10 starts against them, his ERA is 4.92. On the road this year, Pineda is just 2-6 w/ a 5.34 ERA and 1.437 WHIP. Note that the Yankees are 0-5 off their previous five victories. This is not a good team and once A-Rod is out of the equation, they will fully be invested in the future instead of the present. The Red Sox are in a pennant chase and have the best run differential in the American League. 8* Boston |
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08-11-16 | Padres v. Pirates -182 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
6* Pittsburgh (12:35 ET): In a game and series they desperately need to have, the Pirates are off a shutout loss (4-0) last night to the Padres. To call that result disappointing (from the Bucs perspective) would be quite the understatement. Not only did I have them personally, but the loss leaves them 2.5 games back of the second Wild Card spot in the National League. Now only one game over .500 for the season, the Bucs had as many errors (2) as hits last night and as I said, desperately need to bounce back this afternoon. I think the quick turnaround usually works to the home team's advantage in these situations and such is the case here as San Diego "got their win" and the players are probably looking forward to "getting out of town." Believe it or not, but last night was just the fourth time all season that Pittsburgh was shut out. Offensively, this has generally been a fairly strong club for much of the year. They scored six runs in Tuesday's series opener and average 4.8 rpg here at PNC Park. Thus, getting blanked by Edwin Jackson last night came as a major surprise to me. Today, they'll face Christian Friedrich, who has had a pretty subpar year. Friedrich's ERA in his L3 starts is 5.62 as he allowed 4 ER his last time out and took the loss (at home) against the Phillies. Overall, the team has dropped five of Friedrich's past seven starts. This will be just the second time in his career that he's faced Pittsburgh. The first, which came all the way back in 2012, did not go well as Friedrich allowed five runs in 4 2/3 IP. Pittsburgh has won five straight games when facing a southpaw starter. A number of key factors work against the Padres today. A big one is the fact they are 0-8 off their previous eight victories. This is also not a good road team at all. They've lost 11 of 15 away from Petco Park and are just 19-39 their L58 road games vs. a right-handed starter. They face a strong righty today in Jameson Taillon, who has gone exactly six innings in each of his L5 starts and allowed 2 ER or less four times. On Friday, he held the Reds to just one run here at home. That marked the fourth straight time the team won w/ him starting here at PNC Park. Another important part of handicapping this game is noting San Diego's dreadful daytime record as they are a MLB-worst 10-26 in afternoon games this year. 6* Pittsburgh |
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08-10-16 | Yankees v. Red Sox -169 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -169 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
6* Boston (7:10 ET): The Red Sox picked up a big win at their rival's expense last night and in the process closed the gap on both the Orioles and Blue Jays (both lost) in the division. They now face just a 1.5 game deficit and I think it's certainly worth mentioning that it is Boston who has the best overall run differential in the American League currently at +88. Suffice to say, though tempers flared and words were exchanged in last night's 5-3 win by the Red Sox, this rivalry has lost a bit of its luster w/ the Yankees simply not being very good this season. Though a .500 team in the standings, they've been outscored by 36 runs and were major sellers at the trade deadline. I'm sure Boston fans will still be fired up though w/ this game being on ESPN. The Yankees are 4-0 off their last four losses, but they are also 0-5 in Nathan Eovaldi's last five road starts. So, something will have to give here. My inclination is the former as the team is just 1-6 its last seven road games overall. Eovaldi, who has a 5.12 ERA and 1.336 WHIP to begin with, now must contend with what is the highest scoring offense in baseball - by a wide margin. Last night saw Boston become the first team to reach 600 runs scored this year and they average at least a half run per game more than all but four other teams. Eovaldi has allowed a total of four home runs in his last two starts. I put little stock in the fact he leads the teams in wins or that he's 3-0 lifetime vs. the Red Sox. In two career starts here at Fenway, his ERA is 5.94. Drew Pomeranz most certainly is finding life in the American League far more difficult than it was in the Senior Circuit. He's yet to win for Boston since coming over in a trade from San Diego that took place during the All-Star Break. But the team has won two of the four starts he's made and Pomeranz did look better his last time out, holding Seattle to just two runs in six innings of work. The Yankees just don't have a strong lineup as they've been held to three runs or fewer in seven of the last 10 games. Behind Pomeranz, the Red Sox bullpen is now more solified w/ the return of Craig Kimbrel. Boston is now 7-3 vs. the Yankees in 2016, including 4-0 at home. 6* Boston |
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08-10-16 | Rays v. Blue Jays -189 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
6* Toronto (7:07 ET): The Blue Jays missed out on a golden opportunity last night, instead losing to the Rays 9-2 here at Rogers Centre. Baltimore lost later in the evening, thus a win would have elevated Toronto into first place in the American League by its lonesome. Alas, they'll have another opportunity to do so tonight and I like their chances of bouncing back and gaining revenge against the last place team in the division, Tampa Bay. The main reason I think that is J.A. Happ will be on the mound for the home team. The last time Happ suffered a loss was June 6th! Since then, the Jays are a perfect 10-0 w/ him on the mound. Happ has posted a 2.49 ERA during the win streak, which has seen the team outscore its opponents by a stunning 86-25 margin. Having already set a personal best for most wins in a season (15), Happ seems to only be getting stronger. He's allowed 1 or 0 ER in five of his last six starts and over the last three he's been absolutely dominant. He's posted a 0.95 ERA and 0.842 WHIP, allowing just two runs and eight hits in 19 IP. Curiously, he has an 0-3 TSR vs. Tampa Bay in 2016, but two of the starts were quality, even though the last one was most certainly not. I find it odd that Happ and Toronto for that matter haven't found success at the Rays' expense this season (Jays are 5-7 vs. Rays overall) as there's no denying who the better team has been this year (Toronto +74 run diff, TB -37). The Rays are third from the bottom in the AL in runs scored and don't hit lefties particularly well. The last time Happ faced them was May, so a lot's changed since then. Last night's 9-2 victory by the Rays definitely caught me by surprise. Nevertheless, the team remains just 5-16 its L21 road games and has lost 34 of 49 overall. They are up against a pitcher w/ a 17-5 TSR for the year. They'll counter Happ w/ Blake Snell, who has also pitched well of late, but he tends to not pitch very deep into games and has benefited from facing a slew of bad teams lately. Curiously, TB is 1-12 this season in games where the total is 9 or 9.5 (indicative of them not being able to win games the oddsmakers think could be slugfests). Toronto is 7-3 this year as a home favorite in the -175 to -200 range on the ML. 6* Toronto |
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08-10-16 | Padres v. Pirates -157 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -157 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
6* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): This is one of those series where you'd expect the home team to "clean up" and that concept held "true to form" last night w/ the Bucs coming out on top in the opener of a three-game set, 6-4. San Diego actually struck first, taking a 2-0 lead in the top of the first, but wouldn't score again until late when they tacked on runs in both the eighth and ninth innings. Pittsburgh's big breakthrough came in the fifth where three of their four runs scored came via one swing of the bat, a Gregory Polcano home run. Still three games back of the second Wild Card in the NL, it is imperative that the Pirates take care of business in the remainder of this series as they're just 4-6 their L10 games despite only having faced teams that are all at least 10 games below .500. I think they'll get the job done tonight. We have a matchup of two pitchers w/ rather limited workloads thus far in '16. But judging from the early returns, there's no denying that Ryan Vogelsong has been more effective for the Bucs than Edwin Jackson has been for the Padres. In three starts, Vogelsong has a 1.38 ERA and 0.769 WHIP. Even though the team has lost twice w/ him on the mound, I like his chances here. A former member of the San Francisco Giants, Vogelsong should be quite familiar with the Padres. In fact, the last two times he's faced them, he's shut them out across a total of 13 IP! Vogelsong seems to be fully recovered from the facial fracture (hit by pitch) that kept him out from May 24-Aug 3. Theoretically, he should do well against a Padres lineup which never hits all that well and yday started six rookies. Edwin Jackson goes here for San Diego and he probably qualifies as a "band-aid over a bullet hole" situation. His four starts have seen him produce a 4.62 ERA and 1.382 WHIP and he remains in the rotation only out of necessity. This will be just the second time he's started on the road. The Padres have lost 14 of their last 17 road games overall, so that's certainly not a good omen. They've also lost their last four games here at PNC Park. Pittsburgh is fighting to stay alive in a playoff chase while San Diego is largely w/o motivation here. Edge: home team. 6* Pittsburgh |
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08-09-16 | Orioles -135 v. A's | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
8* Baltimore (10:05 ET): I had the Under in last night's series opener and that was yet another easy O/U winner for me as the teams combined for just five runs and 12 hits in a game that was tied 1-1 going into the bottom of the sixth. For the Orioles, the result was not a pleasant one as they came out on the losing end (3-2) and thus dropped back into a first place tie w/ Toronto (who I also won w/ yday!). Here, however, I'll offer my endorsement of the O's as they should absolutely bounce back against an inferior opponent. I've got my doubts about Baltimore being able to hold on to its division lead, but what is not up for debate is the fact Oakland is not a good team. They enter Tuesday w/ the worst run differential in the American League at -93. The A's will be starting a pitcher in Zach Neal that has just one big league start under his belt. It came back in May and he allowed seven runs, on eight hits, in just four innings. The team lost 13-3 at Seattle. He has also made 10 relief appearances over the course of the season. The bottom line is that his ERA is 5.05. Yesterday's win was only the second in 10 games for Oakland. Offensively, they have produced just six runs in the last four games. That run differential I mentioned earlier is easily the worst in the American League. The next worse team is Minnesota at -62. Yes, I've previously discussed how Baltimore isn't even close to as effective on the road as they are at Camden Yards. But Oakland has been a losing proposition in its own park this season (-9.5 units, 25-32). I went against Wade Miley in his Orioles debut last Thursday and that move paid off as the team lost 5-3 and failed to sweep Texas at home. But Miley didn't pitch as poorly as I'd anticipated in that spot and still sports a 0.889 WHIP over his L3 starts. Catcher Matt Wieters cited unusually poor play in the field from the typically sound O's defense as a reason two of the four runs Miley allowed, scored. This will be the first time Miley has faced Oakland this year, but he was 2-0 w/a 1.29 ERA against them in 2015. Miley had allowed 3 ER or less in six of his last eight starts before coming over from Seattle. 8* Baltimore |
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08-09-16 | White Sox -118 v. Royals | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
10* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): This is a pretty cheap price on Chris Sale, no? Granted, the White Sox have lost each of his last four starts, but that's what's served to drive the price down. Save for a disastrous effort before the Break against Atlanta, it's not as if Sale has pitched poorly of late. Of course, there was the suspension and trade rumors, but the bottom line is that in three starts since the Break, all on the road, he has a 1.64 ERA and 0.909 WHIP and nothing to show for it. During that stretch, he's had to face Seattle (underrated offensive team that he held to one hit across eight innings), the Cubs (best team in baseball) and Tigers (hottest team in baseball at the time). Now, he gets to face the lowest scoring team in the American League, an opponent he's quite familiar with. I look for Sale to break through tonight in Kansas City. |
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08-09-16 | Indians v. Nationals -185 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -185 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
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08-08-16 | Reds v. Cardinals -185 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
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08-08-16 | Braves v. Brewers -163 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -163 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (7:20 ET): Normally, neither of these two ballclubs elicit a play from me, but in this instance the Brewers look like a good value. It's pretty rare that you can get to go against the awful Braves at this cheap of price. Plus, the Brew Crew have a very good starter going in Zach Davies. Though the Braves are off B2B wins here and have actually won four of five, let's face it, they still have the worst record in baseball and have been outscored by 123 runs over the course of the season. After a win, they're just 15-25 and one would have to go all the way back to the middle of June to find the last time they produced a win streak of at least three games (won five straight). The team's only other win streak of 3+ games came back in April. Davies has emerged as Milwaukee's second best pitcher behind Junior Guerra. In 19 starts, Davies has gone 9-4 (11-8 TSR) and has a 3.57 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. The team has won each of the last three times he's started and ironically four starts ago he didn't even give up a single run in seven innings of work! He's allowed 2 ER or less in five straight starts, posting a 1.97 ERA during that time w/ a 21-6 KW rate in 32 IP. In 11 of his previous 12 starts, Davies has held the opponent to 3 ER or less. Tonight's start, on paper, should be as easy as it gets considering Atlanta is the lowest scoring team in all of baseball (3.6 rpg). These teams have played only one prior series this year and Milwaukee swept at Turner Field, holding the Braves to just five runs total. Normally, I might be inclined to play the revenge angle in this situation, but not w/ Atlanta, who didn't even face Davies in the prior series. They'll send a rookie, Rob Whalen, to the mound tonight. This will be Whalen's second big league start and the first did not go particularly well as he allowed four runs in five innings against Pittsburgh. He also walked four batters. The Braves actually wound up winning the game, 8-4, but I do not expect that kind of offensive display to take place here tonight. Atlanta has dropped six of its last seven series openers. The Brewers, meanwhile, have won their last four games here at Miller Park. 8* Milwaukee |
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08-08-16 | Rays v. Blue Jays -141 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:07 ET): Though personally the Blue Jays were a success for me this weekend (they were Friday's 10* Game of the Week), the team has to be quite disappointed w/ their overall weekend result as they dropped two of three to the previously ice cold Kansas City Royals. Losing to Danny Duffy on Saturday was acceptable, but yday's 7-1 setback really caught me by surprise. This leaves the Jays one game back of Baltimore in the AL East. They now start a key six-game homestand against the last place team in the division, Tampa Bay, who also lost two of three over the weekend (at home to Minnesota). The Rays should be no match here and I think this is a pretty good price to be getting on Toronto at home against a clearly inferior foe. |
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08-07-16 | Red Sox -105 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
9* Boston (7:10 ET): A few notes here. This isn't a typical Sunday Night Game as the start time is 7:10 ET. The game won't be on ESPN either (MLB Network) as they have the H.O.F. Game instead. The Dodgers have made a pitching change as the recently acquired Rich Hill is still dealing w/ a blister on his throwing hand, thus Brandon McCarthy is thrust into action here on four days' rest. The Dodgers and Red Sox have exchanged shutout victories so far in this series w/ the former coming out on top yday, 3-0. That was the first time all year that Boston dropped a game in which it was coming off a shutout win (won 9-0 Friday). It was also just their fourth time being shutout in 2016. I have them bouncing back tonight and taking the series. |
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08-07-16 | Angels v. Mariners -120 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
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08-07-16 | Reds v. Pirates -181 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -181 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
6* Pittsburgh (1:35 ET): The Bucs are going for a three-game sweep of the Reds Sunday and I think they'll get it behind Gerrit Cole. Granted, Cincy counters w/ one of their two good starters, that being Dan Strailey, but overall this is a very bad ballclub that's been outscored by 132 runs over the course of the season. They'd been flashing some promise heading into the series, but have been held to just five runs and 13 hits here at PNC Park. The Pirates still have Wild Card aspirations remember and depending on how St. Louis and Miami fare Saturday night, they could be facing just a 1.5 game deficit entering the day. The Reds are only 18-36 on the road this year while the Bucs are 17-5 L3 seasons at home in the -175 to -200 price range on the ML. Cole has missed some time due to injury this season and thus has been limited to only 16 starts. Pittsburgh really could have used him during the month he missed as that was the time they really hit the skids, going just 14-19 overall. The team lost his first start back, 6-0 at Washington (w/ Cole giving up five of those runs), but since then he's been lights out. Cole has posted a 1.35 ERA and 0.95 WHIP his three starts since, allowing only 1 ER each time out. That includes a complete game, three-hitter his last time starting here at home. There he finished w/ a 6-0 KW rate against a good Seattle lineup. For some odd reason, Cole has always struggled against the Reds (never beaten them), but there's a first time for everything and for the Bucs' ace Sunday should be that first time beating this particular divison rival. Cincinnati's Straily has been very good ever since July 1st (six straight quality starts). He and Anthony DeSclafani have really emerged as the anchors of this very young Reds staff. But the Pirates beat the previously unbeaten DeSclafani on Friday, though it was actually a walk-off HR that won it for them. Despite all of Straily's exploits, it should be mentioned that he still sports a poor 4.42 ERA on the road. The team has won his L4 outings overall, including B2B as underdogs (once at +215 at San Francisco), but this has all the makings of a sweep Sunday. 6* Pittsburgh |
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08-06-16 | Rangers v. Astros -142 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -142 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
8* Houston (7:10 ET): I had the Astros last night and, as expected, they rolled to a 5-0 victory over Texas. I'll come right back w/ them again tonight for many of the same reasons. Yes, I may be just two days removed from taking the Rangers and them coming through at a nice +116 return on the money line in Baltimore. But this remains a flawed ballclub. What I mean by that is that in terms of wins and losses, they've clearly overachieved in 2016. Look no further than their run differential, now just +1 on the season, which is eighth best in the American League. So the fact they entered last night w/ the best record in the AL should be considered very fortunate. Houston had been only 1-9 vs. Texas this year, but as I said yday, this is going to be their series for the taking. I would not be shocked if they passed the Rangers in the AL West by season's end. |
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08-06-16 | Mets v. Tigers -147 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
8* Detroit (7:10 ET): Turns out that Thursday afternoon (lost 6-3 to the White Sox) was just a "brief hiccup" for the Tigers, who improved to 9-1 their L10 games w/ a 4-3 win over Noah Syndergaard and the Mets last night. That result, coupled w/ Cleveland's loss in New York, has Detroit now just two games back in American League Central. Meanwhile, the Mets (last year's Senior Circuit champs) seem to be fading in the National League Wildcard picture even though they face the same two-game deficit (behind Marlins & Cardinals) that the Tigers do. But New York certainly seems to be trending in the wrong direction of late w/ losses in 7 of their past 10 games. Detroit is a team that probably should not be faded right now. |
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08-06-16 | Indians -150 v. Yankees | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
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08-05-16 | Blue Jays -134 v. Royals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:15 ET): These teams met in last year's ALCS, but given recent form (on both sides), only one side stands a chance of getting back there this year. That would be the Blue Jays as this series most certainly represents two teams trending in very different directions. Toronto just took three in a row in Houston, allowing just three runs in the process, and has won 19 of 28. Kansas City, who seems unable to win when Danny Duffy isn't pitching, has just six victories since the All-Star Break. Four of those have come w/ Duffy on the bump, which leaves them at a pitiful 3-21 the L24 games that Duffy did NOT start. No offense Royals fans, but you owe Fangraphs a big apology as all the signs that your team would regress in 2016 have come to fruition. Look for Toronto to come in and roll here. The Blue Jays are one of just three teams in the American League to have a winning road record. Theirs (30-23) is actually the best and only the Cardinals and Nats in the NL are better overall. As mentioned above, they come off three straight wins in Houston (a good home team) and allowed just one run in every game. Last year, the offense carried this club, but in 2016 the pitching has improved despite the loss of David Price. A new acquisition gets the starting nod tonight. That would be Francisco Liriano. While his numbers w/ Pittsburgh may not look very impressive to you, I've got my eyes on one key statistic. Liriano will be reunited w/ another former Pirate here, that being catcher Russell Martin, and when those two have worked together in the past, Liriano sports an ERA of 2.92. P.S. The Royals have lost the last seven times they've faced a left-handed starter! Dillon Gee will be the starter for Kansas City and because he's not Duffy, it's really difficult to like the team's chances here, even at home. One month ago, in Toronto, the Blue Jays swept the Royals and held them to just seven runs in the three games. Gee joined the starting rotation right after that and has not been successful w/ a 6.75 ERA and 1.772 WHIP in three starts, all losses. Again, he figures to get little help from an offense that has now scored three runs or fewer in ELEVEN of its last 12 games. A crushing 3-2 loss yday in Tampa Bay (allowed 3-run HR in bottom of eighth after one-hitting the Rays through seven) does the Royals no favors here either. 10* Toronto |
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08-05-16 | Rangers v. Astros -154 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:10 ET): Texas was quite kind to me yday, cashing as a +116 underdog on the money line in Baltimore, which is not an easy place to win (Orioles have best home record in baseball). But, if you go back and look at my analysis for that game (which I implore you to do!), you'll note I made mention of some "reservations" I have concerning the Rangers moving forward. Currently, there are nine teams in the American League w/ positive run differentials. Of those nine, the Rangers (who have the best record) place only eighth, having outscored opponents by only six runs over the course of the season. Houston, their main competition in the division and opponent this weekend, is +33. I still am of the belief that the Astros will possibly overtake the Rangers for the AL West crown. Take them in tonight's series opener. |
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08-04-16 | Rangers +116 v. Orioles | Top | 5-3 | Win | 116 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
10* Texas (7:05 ET): This battle of unlikely division leaders has seen Baltimore come out on top both times so far in the series. But while Texas' lead in the West (5.5 games) remains safer than the Orioles in the East (1 gm), don't think for a second that the Rangers won't have a sense of desperation Thursday as they look to avoid being swept. Yesterday saw the O's score all three of their runs in the first inning and they were held to just one hit after that. There's been a real offensive decline with Buck Showalter's club since the Break and while they remain a lucrative 39-16 this year at Camden Yards, I think their opponents are a really solid value this afternoon despite any reservations I may have about their YTD run differential (only +4). I do have to tip my cap to the Orioles for beating both Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels the L2 days. They've done so with only eight runs and 13 hits, so the pitching deserves more of the credit in this series. That's odd considering Baltimore's starting staff has ranked near the bottom of MLB in ERA basically all season (currently 25th at 4.91). For that reason, they went out and acquired Wade Miley from Seattle at the trade deadline. But could there wind up being a little "buyer's remorse" when all is said and done? Yes, Miley has pitched well recently, but over the course of the year his ERA/WHIP is 4.98/1.348. He did pitch very well in his lone start at Camden Yards earlier this year, but that was against the team he now plays for, not Texas, who has gotten to him three times in 2016. In those three starts vs. the Rangers, Miley has allowed a total of 14 runs and 21 hits in 17 IP. In starts outside of Safeco Field this year, Miley has a 5.01 ERA and 1.423 WHIP. Since the start of last season, no team has been as profitable at the betting window than the Rangers and it's not even close. They led all of baseball last season at +30.7 units and once again find themselves a top the rankings at +21.7 here in '16. They did outhit the Orioles last night (7-4) and I think that a real key for tonight is that they are 21-7 their L28 after scoring two runs or less the previous ballgame. They'll counter Miley w/ AJ Griffin, who has an 8-3 TSR L11 outings and has allowed just three runs total his L2 starts. 10* Texas |
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08-04-16 | Twins v. Indians -140 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (12:10 ET): Can you believe that the Indians are now just 4-8 head to head vs. the Twins in 2016 and facing the prospect of a four-game sweep, at home? More shocking than just that have been the individual results themselves in this series. Minnesota has won by scores of 12-5, 10-6 and 13-5, pummeling what had been the top pitching staff in the entire American League. To say the events of this week at Progressive Field have been shocking would be a mild understatement. I've unfortunately been on Cleveland each of the L2 games and just to reiterate the shocking nature of the results, I'll repost a snippet of my past analysis and point out that the Indians still rank near the top of the AL (3rd, were 1st going into yday) in run differential (+78) and have gone 26-8 vs. the other three teams in the Central Division. Minnesota is -60 in YTD run diff (2nd worst in AL) and is a combined 6-21 vs. KC, Detroit and Chicago. |
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08-04-16 | Royals v. Rays -132 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
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08-03-16 | Twins v. Indians -176 | Top | 13-5 | Loss | -176 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
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08-03-16 | Brewers -139 v. Padres | Top | 3-12 | Loss | -139 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (3:40 ET): The Brew Crew arrived in San Diego Monday fresh off a surprising sweep (at home) of the Pirates over the weekend. They've managed to split the two games so far at Petco Park (won 3-2 yday) and I believe stand an excellent chance to take the series here on Getaway Day. I say this not just because the Padres are a bad team in general, but they are particularly brutal in the day time (just 9-25, worst record in all of MLB) as well. Furthermore, today's pitching matchup seems squarely in the favor of Milwaukee, whose staff has held opponents in check (.231 BA) the last seven days to begin with. In four of six meetings this year, San Diego has scored three runs or fewer against Brewers' pitching. |
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08-02-16 | A's v. Angels -136 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): Though these teams enter today tied in the standings (47-58), there's a massive discrepancy between the two that I don't feel is being properly reflected in the line. The Angels, though 11 games below .500, have actually outscored their opponents this season by the slightest of margins (1 run). Meanwhile, Oakland sports the worst run differential in the entire American League at -81. So the old adage of "throw the records out the window" certainly does apply here. Furthermore, the Halos have won 8 of 10 home games since the Break and have justified the select number of times they've been in this price range this season (2-0 at -150 to -175 at home). I'm on the home team tonight and would not be surprised to see them dominate this series. We have two starting pitchers going tonight that have less than stellar numbers over the long term, but recently both Sean Manea and Matt Shoemaker have pitched admirably. Manaea carries a 1.25 ERA and 0.969 WHIP his L3 starts while Shoemaker is at 2.91 and 0.969. But Shoemaker has been a little better over the course of the season, especially at home. The last time he started here, he tossed a complete game shutout w/ 13 strikeouts and no walks. That dropped his ERA/WHIP to 3.23/1.132 here, so he's probably deserving of better than a 3-6 team start record. Manaea, meanwhile, has been largely feast or famine. While he hasn't allowed a single run in three of his last five outings, there was one where he allowed six runs at Minnesota and then last time out he yielded 11 hits in 6 2/3 IP. Both those starts came on the road where his ERA/WHIP is 6.99/1.553 for the year. Oakland also just got swept in Cleveland, including an 8-0 loss Sunday. Again, I'd consider them to possibly be the worst team in the entire AL right now. Getting back to the starting pitching match, Shoemaker has faced the A's twice this year and has allowed only one run (on seven hits) in 12 IP. Personally, I think he's pitched a lot better than his record indicates as his ERA was actually lower than that of Hector Santiago, who was just traded to Minnesota after an outstanding July. He'll lead the team to victory here. 8* LA Angels |
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08-02-16 | Twins v. Indians -202 | Top | 10-6 | Loss | -202 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
5* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians took a very bad loss yday, falling 12-5 to the Twins. With the surging Tigers (won 6 straight) now "hot on their heels" in the American League Central, that's the kind of result that the Tribe simply cannot afford right now. They're actually just 4-6 overall vs. Minnesota this year, which defies logic when you consider how the two teams have been at opposite ends of the division basically all year and that Cleveland is a combined 26-8 vs. the Tigers, White Sox and Royals. They still sport a +90 run differential (best in the AL) though and will be sending Carlos Carrasco to the bump Tuesday. I view this as an obvious bounce back spot for the heavily favored team. It doesn't happen often, but Cleveland typically bounces back after giving up 10+ runs the previous game. They are 3-1 in that situation this year and 13-7 over the last three seasons. Having Carrasco toe the rubber definitely helps as he brings in a 2.45 ERA and 1.025 WHIP in 15 starts, 11 of those resulting in team victories. He's looked very good of late w/ a 0.75 WHIP his L3 starts as he's allowed only eight hits in 18+ innings of work. Going all the way back to the start of June, there have been only two occasions (in 11 starts) where Carrasco has yielded more than three runs and one of those saw four of the five runs charged be unearned. Clearly, this is a pitcher worthy of this price range. Making the previous Indians-Twins results all the more confounding is the fact the latter is just 6-21 in all other division contests. We're talking about a matchup of the team w/ the best run differential in the American League against the team with the second worst run differential. Minnesota is still only 18-32 on the road this year and Cleveland has outscored its opponents by an impressive 1.4 rpg margin here at home. It is difficult to envision Kyle Gibson going "toe to toe" w/ Carrasco as he has a 5.14 ERA and 1.429 WHIP on the road. After allowing four runs and 10 hits in a start last month, Gibson now has a 5.80 career ERA vs. the Indians. Home teams typically bounce back from a loss like the one the Tribe took last night and when they're the significantly better side, it's all but guaranteed. 5* Cleveland |
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08-02-16 | Rangers -112 v. Orioles | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
10* Texas (7:05 ET): Despite this being a battle of division leaders, truth be told, I'm not sure how sold I am on either club over the long-term. Both the Rangers and Orioles have outperformed their respective run differentials this season, in terms of wins and losses, and have much better records at home than on the road. That last little tidbit would seem to favor Baltimore this week, but for tonight's series opener I'll be on Texas, who just bolstered their roster yday and has the much better starting pitcher going. The Rangers arrive in Camden Yards fresh off a sweep of the Royals while the O's haven't been playing particularly well of late. An extra-innings win Sunday snapped what had been a five-game losing streak. Yu Darvish is a big key to this game for Texas. Since rejoining the rotation in mid-July, the team is a surprising 0-3 with him on the mound. Overall, they've lost his L4 starts. But the blame there certainly should not be placed at the feet of Darvish, who has allowed 2 ER or less in each of those four starts and has delivered B2B quality outings w/ a 17-1 KW rate. He's previously been on a pitch count, but for tonight it sounds as if they'll finally let him throw 100+ pitches, if needed. Darvish was in line for a win his last time out as he gave up just four hits (only two after the 1st inning) over six innings, but the bullpen ruined things. I make Texas the favorite in the AL West after yday's acquisitions of Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Beltran. Though they got Wade Miley from Seattle at the deadline, starting pitching remains a major concern in Baltimore as the starting rotation has one of the worst collective ERA's (4.81, 26th) in all of baseball. Taking Chris Tillman out of the equation, the team is just 40-41 in all other games. The team's offensive numbers have dipped rather dramatically of late w/ the lineup batting a collective .201 the past seven games while scoring just 3.0 runs per. Tonight's starter Dylan Bundy has given up five home runs in three starts so far and has yet to make it through six full innings. Texas is 9-2 head to head w/ Baltimore since the start of last season. 10* Texas |
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08-01-16 | Nationals -185 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 14-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
6* Washington (9:40 ET): Stephen Strasburg rebounded nicely from his first defeat of 2016 (7/21 at LA) by tossing seven scoreless innings of three-hit ball at Cleveland on Wednesday. That improved his record to 14-1 this season and the team has won 17 of his 19 starts overall. Monday night provides an opportunity to face one of the weakest opponents possible as reeling Arizona will be the host. Normally, playing as the road team presents some sort of disadvantage, but not here at Chase Field where the visitors have gone a shocking 35-17 over the course of 2016. The D'backs home record is the second worst in all of baseball, with only Atlanta being inferior. Washington enters the day as one of only three teams w/ 30 road wins. I'll be going with them. This shapes up to be a pretty severe pitching mismatch with Archie Bradley starting opposite Strasburg. Bradley may not be giving up a ton of runs lately, but his WHIP is still relatively high (1.444 L3 starts), which indicates to me that he's been a little lucky with the number of baserunners actually allowed compared to the number that have scored. He's walked 11 batters over his L3 starts. As I said earlier, Arizona has not been playing well of late as they've dropped 14 of 19 and were hammered on Sunday, 14-3, by the Dodgers. It was the second time in that series they failed to protect a lead of three runs or greater and you can expect more of that moving forward as it's now a "bullpen by committee" after sending closer Brad Ziegler to Boston. Meanwhile, I don't see any issues with Washington from a pitching perspective here as they have Strasburg to do the heavy lifting and then the recently acquired Mark Melancon (led MLB w/ 51 saves last year) to finish things off. Strasburg has allowed 1 or 0 ER in five of his last six starts and in all of those, he lasted at least 6 2/3 innings. There aren't many teams in baseball that have struggled more in series openers than has Arizona, who have dropped nine in a row. The price range isn't kind to them either as they're 0-4 this season when priced as a home dog between +150 and +175 on the money line. This is the first meeting of the year of these two clubs and it should go as you would expect. 6* Washington |
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08-01-16 | Marlins v. Cubs -174 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
7* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): Admittedly, this isn't a great spot/situation for the Cubs. There's the potential for a letdown after last night's thrilling 7-6, come from behind victory over Seattle, a game which went 12 innings. Usually, I try and avoid (or even go against!) teams that played on the ESPN Sunday Night telecast, come Monday. But, if you're Joe Maddon, then you have to feel pretty good about the last 24 hours. The Cubs were able to win a game where they got a spot start from Brian Matusz (no thanks to Matusz!) and now have Kyle Hendricks at their disposal tonight. That's the key to this one as Hendricks actually sports the lowest WHIP among the team's normal starting rotation. He has been outstanding all year here at Wrigley. |
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07-31-16 | Astros -149 v. Tigers | Top | 0-11 | Loss | -149 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
8* Houston (1:10 ET): These are two teams trying to fight there way into Wild Card position. Thanks to taking the first two games of this series, Detroit now has a one-half game lead on the Astros, though they still are a game behind the Red Sox for the second WC spot in the American League. Overall, the Tigers have won five in a row after taking last night's game in walk-off fashion, 3-2, on an infield single. Interestingly, both teams scored twice in the ninth. Tough loss for Houston, but I'll make the case that they're still the better team here as they've outscored opponents by 49 runs (4th best in AL) over the course of the season while Detroit is at +7 (tied for 8th). Dallas Keuchel is toeing the rubber Sunday for the Astros and I think that gives them a pretty distinct advantage as they look to avoid the sweep. A big key for the Astros this season is they are #2 in run suppression in the American League, trailing only Cleveland. If Keuchel, last year's Cy Young winner, was pitching up to his 2015 standard, then just imagine how good they'd be in that department. The team actually sports a losing record w/ Keuchel on the bump this year (9-12), though he has shown some clear signs that things are set to turn as he's delivered five consecutive quality starts, allowing 2 ER or less every time out. He has a 2.14 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in the last three, but was a hard luck loser his last time out (2-1 to the Yankees) despite going 7 2/3 innings w/o a walk. It should be pointed out that since May 1st, Houston has the best record in the American League (48-29) and ranks 1st in both defensive runs saved and bullpen ERA. Detroit goes w/ Mike Pelfrey here. Having benefited from leading the league in double plays turned a year ago, he's again near the top in that statistic in 2016 and may even top his 2015 total. But, overall it has not been a good season for him. In 20 starts, Pelfrey has a 5.52 ERA and 1.802 WHIP and his numbers are actually worse here at Comerica Park. Somehow, the team has been able to win two of his last three turns despite him posting a woeful 8.25 ERA and 2.083 WHIP. This shapes up to be a complete pitching mismatch on Sunday and I happen to think that the Astros are the better team overall anyway. 8* Houston |
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07-31-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -163 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -163 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
8* Toronto (1:05 ET): Although I actually took the Over on Friday (and that play was a winner!), I stated in my analysis that I anticipated this being a big weekend for the Blue Jays. I came back and took them on the money line yday and sure enough they romped their way to victory over Baltimore, 9-1. The end result is that they now find themselves in first place in the AL East, one-half game up on the Orioles and two up on the Red Sox. I believe that after today they'll widen that lead, at least over the O's, and finish off the sweep here at Rogers Centre. Today is the marquee pitching matchup of the series w/ Chris Tillman facing off against Aaron Sanchez. Baltimore's definitely a different team w/ Tillman on the bump, but they are also just 21-29 on the road. When Tillman isn't on the mound, the Orioles are just a .500 team. When he pitches, they've gone 18-4. No pitcher in MLB has earned more net units for his team at the betting window than has Tillman (+14.4). He'd been rolling along quite nicely in July; that was until he ran into Colorado his last time out. There, and this came at Camden Yards not Coors Field, he gave up six runs in just five innings of work. Tillman has not fared well against Toronto throughout his career, going 5-10 in 22 starts w/ a 5.71 ERA. In two starts against them this year, he's allowed six runs in 11 innings. Both starts came at home. Back to the team's road woes, they are just 2-10 this season when priced in the +125 to +150 range on the money line. Overall, the club is trending in the wrong direction w/ five consecutive losses. Toronto has the perfect counter for Tillman and that's Sanchez, who has not lost a decision since April 22nd! That's a span of 16 starts and he's gone 10-0 (12-4 TSR) w/ 2.58 ERA. It should be pointed out that Sanchez has both a better ERA and WHIP than Tillman over the course of the season. He in fact leads the entire American League in ERA (2.72) and that's the lowest earned run average posted by any starter, 23 years or younger, since Felix Hernandez. Lately, he's been on fire w/ a 1.71 ERA his L7 starts, allowing 2 ER or less every time. The Blue Jays are the hottest team in baseball right now (16-6 L22), averaging 6.0 rpg during those 22 games. 8* Toronto |
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07-30-16 | A's v. Indians -179 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
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07-30-16 | Pirates -143 v. Brewers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -143 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
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07-30-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -174 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
8* Toronto (1:07 ET): Hitting the Over in last night's series opener was not a problem as the Blue Jays set the tone early w/ three home runs in the first inning and there were 10 total runs scored by the fourth inning (total was 9.0). As I had expected, Toronto ended up taking the game as well, 6-5. In yday's analysis, I made sure to point out what a big series this was for Toronto as they now trail Baltimore by just one-half game in the AL East Standings and can thus take over first place w/ another win today. The homefield advantage is big here (Baltimore just 21-28 on the road) as is the discrepancy in run differentials where Toronto is +77 and Baltimore is just +31. I'll call for a new division leader by day's end. At the All-Star Break, the Orioles are a team I "earmarked" for second-half regression and it appears as if I made the right call there. Outside of Camden Yards (where they are 37-16), this is simply not the same team and the starting pitching remains a very big concern. Consider that even w/ Chris Tillman's contributions, the rotation's ERA this year is an awful 4.98 (26th), a number typically reserved for last place teams. Take Tillman's starts out of the equation and the team's overall record drops to 40-39. Not to put Tillman on the same mantle as the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw, but it's a similar effect there. Starting today for the O's is Yovani Gallardo, who should feel quite fortunate to have an 8-4 TSR given that his ERA and WHIP are 5.37 and 1.63 respectively. On the road, those numbers get even worse. By the way, Baltimore has now lost four in a row. Toronto will send out JA Happ, who is red hot. He's 7-0 (8-0 TSR) over his last eight starts. In his 10 home starts this year, the team has won nine times w/ Happ at 8-1 himself. Lately, he's been real sharp, turning in a 1.56 ERA and 1.038 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, he held Seattle (a good offensive team) to just one hit in 6 IP. There's been only one time in his L7 starts where he's given up more than 3 ER and that came at Coors Field. Personally, I think the Blue Jays are the best team in the East and they're starting to show it w/ a 14-5 run in division games. After today, they'll be in first place. 8* Toronto |
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07-29-16 | Phillies -149 v. Braves | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -149 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
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07-29-16 | Cardinals v. Marlins -117 | Top | 11-6 | Loss | -117 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
10* Miami (7:10 ET): From the Marlins perspective, this series got off to an auspicious start last night as they lost here at home w/ Jose Fernandez on the mound (he was previously 26-1 starting in Miami). But, that result is something I believe they can definitely recover from. Right now, these teams are tied for the second Wild Card spot in the National League, so this game is quite important. The Cardinals have gotten hot (won 8 of 11) and have the vastly superior run differential, but note that Miami is 8-1 off its last nine losses. While highly profitable on the road this season, St. Louis doesn't have the edge in starting pitching in this one either. Therefore, I call for the home team to square the series away at one game apiece. Jose Urena has made only two starts thus far for the Marlins and while he hasn't won either (team is 1-1), he's definitely pitched very well. In 11 2/3 innings of work, he's given up just two runs and eight hits w/ a 9-1 KW rate. Yes, he's gotten to face the Mets and Phillies, two of the worst offenses in the National League, but I still like his chances tonight. Urena had been working out of the bullpen in April and May, but has been more effective in the role of starter. As for St. Louis, they go w/ Mike Leake. He has a good track record pitching in Miami, but overall has a 4.24 ERA this season. The team has won just two of his past seven starts and is 0-4 during that time against opponents w/ a winning record. Last time out, he was hammered for seven runs and 12 hits by Los Angeles. One of the big stories in this series is the return of Dee Gordon, last year's NL batting champion, to the Marlins lineup. Gordon is coming off an 80-game suspension for PED's and went 0 for 4 in his official return last night. But I wouldn't be surprised if he got on track rather quickly. In 2015, he hit .333 and also led the NL in steals w/ 58. He's a key cog at the top of the order. Meanwhile, St. Louis is hitting a collective .197 their last seven games, which is not an encouraging sign. As a slight road underdog (+125 or less on the ML), the Cards have a losing record not just this year, but over the past three seasons. Good value on the other side here. 10* Miami |
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07-29-16 | Rockies v. Mets -161 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -161 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The Mets suffered a tough 2-1 loss last night here at Citi Field and are now 0-4 this season against the Rockies. The reigning Senior Circuit champs currently find themselves on the "outside looking in" when it comes to the NL playoff picture and more losses to an opponent such as this one are "killers" for their chances of moving up in the standings. Though the offense has some real issues, I think tonight's pitching matchup greatly favors New York and the money line really does not reflect just how one-sided it might be. Beating the same opponent, game after game, is tough to do in this sport and for a subpar outfit like Colorado, there's no reason to believe they can keep beating the Mets. Rockies pitching has been surprisingly sharp over the last week or so. It's the reason why the team has won seven of eight as they haven't allowed more than four runs in any of those games. Take the staff out of Coors Field and it's amazing what can happen. Nowhere is that more apparent than with tonight's starter Tyler Chatwood, who has a 1.30 ERA and 1.014 WHIP on the road this season (5-0 in eight starts). But Chatwood's career track record suggests he will not be able to keep this level of performance up. He's also recently had a problem going deep into games, failing to make it past the fifth in any of his L5 outings. Though he allowed only one hit in 5 IP his last time out, he also walked EIGHT batters! That came after allowing seven runs to a lousy Tampa Bay offense that had no DH his prior start. Of course, Colorado's offense also greatly decreases when they take their act out on the road. At Coors Field, their 6.2 rpg average leads all of baseball. But they dip to 24th in runs per game on the road at just 4.1. When it comes to run suppression at home, the Mets are one of the best teams in baseball (4th), allowing just 3.5 rpg. They'll have Stephen Matz toeing the rubber tonight as he looks to follow up on a fantastic outing where he blanked Miami for six innings, allowing only four hits. The Rockies have never faced him. I haven't even mentioned yet how the Mets have lost the last two games w/ closer Jeurys Familia blowing save opportunities for the first time all season. The Mets outhit the Rockies yday and are 6-1 coming off their last seven losses. Colorado is still only 27-67 on the road the L2 years when facing a team that has a winning record. 8* NY Mets |
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07-29-16 | A's v. Indians -154 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): This weekend series hosting Oakland is one where the first place Indians have to clean up. While not in any kind of terrible danger (have the largest division lead in the A.L), the Tribe have stagnated a bit since the All-Star Break by going just 5-6. Remember that right before the Break, they put together an impressive 14-game win streak. At home, I don't see them having much problem with the A's, who rank as one of the American League's worst ballclubs. In fact, this matchup pits the team w/ the best run differential in the AL (+84) against a team with the second worst run differential (-69). That sounds like a mismatch to me and I don't think the Indians are priced nearly high enough for Friday. Take them in the opener. Cleveland should be well-rested for this series as they've already had two days off this week (Monday, Thursday). They just played a quick two-game set here at Progressive Field against Washington, splitting the games. While coming away w/ a split was a little fortunate (had big rally to win on Tuesday - I took them!), that was against a much tougher opponent than they'll face here. Also, it probably took a little adjusting for the players, who hadn't played a home game since before the All-Star Break (due to the Republican National Convention). The Tribe plays 18 of their next 23 at home, so I anticipate they'll have a strong August. As for Oakland, they might be 9-4 overall since the Break, but this is a still a team being outscored by a full run per game on the road over the course of the season. Cleveland is 11-4 its L15 series openers. Looking at the pitching matchup, we have two starters that have been trending in opposite directions. Oakland's Kendall Graveman has a shocking 8-0 TSR his L8 starts, but I get the sense that regression is about to set in as he carries a 5.25 ERA and 1.543 WHIP on the road this season. Plus, he has a 2-6 TSR his L8 road starts vs. teams with a winning record. He's off a rare complete game effort and has topped 100 pitches in three of his past four starts. For Cleveland, Trevor Bauer is 0-3 in July, but had an outstanding June where he allowed 2 ER or fewer in five of six starts. Coming into this month, he was 7-2 w/ a 3.02 ERA this season. It's a case of progression vs. regression to the mean for the respective starting pitchers in this one while the far better team asserts itself. 8* Cleveland |
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07-28-16 | Royals v. Rangers -159 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
8* Texas (8:05 ET): Both division winners from a year ago, Kansas City and Texas are both experiencing some regression here in the second half of the season. I can't say I'm surprised in either instance as both clubs had been outperforming (in terms of wins and losses) their YTD run differential heading into the All-Star Break. Texas, despite still being 14 games over .500 and in first place in the AL West, actually now has a scoring differential of 0 for the year. Not only does that place them eighth in the American League, it's just fourth best in the division and actually lower than the last place Angels! Kansas City though is in worse shape. They've dipped to two games below .500 and have actually been outscored by 50 runs this year, which suggests the record should be even worse. The reigning World Series Champs have been an awful road team all season (17-32). That and Cole Hamels going for the Rangers are the difference makers in this one. |
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07-28-16 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -124 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
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07-27-16 | Rays v. Dodgers -175 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -175 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
7* LA Dodgers (3:10 ET): The Dodgers held on last night for a 3-2 win, handing the Rays their fourth consecutive loss in the process. The reality of the matter is that this should be a relatively easy two-game set for Dodger Blue. Tampa Bay just flat out isn't very good. They've lost a stunning 42 out of their last 60 games and are just 3-15 their L18 on the road. Not surprisingly then, they find themselves in last place in the American League East w/ a -59 run differential and 38-61 record, perilously close to having the worst record in the entire league. This team doesn't score much either, ranking just 26th in runs scored overall and they are of course w/out the DH here at Dodger Stadium, a noted pitcher-friendly park, where visiting teams average just 3.1 rpg to begin with (.219 batting average). I look for a Dodgers sweep. |
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07-27-16 | Phillies v. Marlins -163 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
8* Miami (12:10 ET): Over the last two days, these teams have exchanged shutout victories. Yesterday, it was the Marlins coming out on top 5-0 as Tom Koehler and the bullpen combined to allow only four hits. Miami's own offense not only obviously didn't do anything Monday, but they had just one run on the board entering the home half of the eighth last night. Giancarlo Stanton's RBI single in the sixth actually snapped a 24-inning scoreless streak. But after they piled on late yday, don't be surprised to see a big day at the plate here. Day games have seen this offense hit a collective .277 this season. For a team currently holding one of the two Wild Card spots, this is a series the Marlins simply cannot afford to lose. I have made this statement numerous times throughout the season, but it bears repeating. Philadelphia, while it doesn't have a good record, should feel fortunate to even be 10 games below .500. Their YTD run differential of -98 is third worst in all of baseball. Only Atlanta and Cincinnati are worse. Based on that run differential, one would "expect" the Phillies to actually be 24 games below .500. That's tied with the Rangers for the biggest discrepancy between actual and expected win total, whether it be positive or negative. A 20-12 record in one-run games has kept them somewhat afloat, but even there we've started to see some regression. Three times in the last nine games the Phils have dropped a one-run game; two of those came at home to Miami last week. Overall, the Marlins have only managed to split 12 games this season vs. the Phillies. Again, they need to be better if they hope to make the postseason. Consider that Philadelphia is just 9-26 its L35 games vs. teams with winning records, including 4-13 on the road. Wednesday starter Zach Eflin is coming off a complete game shutout vs. Pittsburgh, which lowered his season ERA to 3.40, but his ground ball vs. fly ball percentage is not what you want to see and I question how he'll perform after throwing 100+ pitches in B2B starts. Miami has won five of Adam Conley's previous seven outings and he has a 2.63 ERA and 1.024 WHIP during that time. Six times during that stretch, he's given up 2 ER or fewer. 8* Miami |
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07-26-16 | Braves v. Twins -180 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -180 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:10 ET): At first glance, this seems to be a bit of an obscene price on the lowly Twins, but as a reminder they are the home team in this battle of the worst teams from both the American and National Leagues. Well, Cincinnati actually has a slightly worse run differential than Atlanta (-142 to -138), but the Braves' record is worse. Their run differential is also significantly worse than Minnesota's (-81). So you can start to see some justification for the Twins being in this price range for just the SECOND time in the past three seasons. Throw in the fact that they are on pace for a winning July (12-8) and I'm all over them here. Despite facing playoff contenders Cleveland, Detroit and Boston since the All-Star Break (Cleveland & Boston have the two best run differentials in the AL), the Twins more than "held their own" in going 5-5 overall. Tonight they send Ervin Santana to the hill and while his TSR remains pretty bad, he's shown definite signs of improvement of late by posting a 1.69 ERA and 0.797 WHIP his L3 starts. During that time, we've seen him toss a complete game shutout (two-hitter) against Oakland here at home and then last time out he held Detroit to just one run over seven innings. The discrepancy between his WHIP (1.141) and ERA (4.22) signals to me that he is line for some better results moving forward. Meanwhile, even the thin air at Coors Field could not get this woeful Atlanta offense on track as they managed only 12 runs in that four-game series while being swept. The team has lost 8 of 10 since the Break and only twice have they topped three runs in a game during this time. They are 30th (last) in runs scored this year as well as 30th in slugging and team batting average. In OBP, they rank 29th. That's trouble with Lucas Harrell starting tonight as the right-hander has allowed 11 runs (in just 9 2/3 IP) his L2 starts. The Twins offense has been "sneaky good" over the last two months, especially in terms of hitting home runs. Overall, they scored 18 runs the L2 games vs. Boston. The AL traditionally dominates IL play, so I expect that to translate here in the battle of the worst teams from each league w/ the AL team being at home. 8* Minnesota |
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07-26-16 | Nationals v. Indians -140 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians are glad to be back home after being swept over the weekend in Baltimore. Despite that disappointing result, I don't view the AL Central leaders as being in any kind of trouble as they still sport the best run differential in their league (+86) and have a 5.5 game lead in the division. But they'll clearly need to "step their game up" the next two days as they welcome Washington to town. The Nats are one of just three teams in baseball that has a better run differential than the Indians and both of these teams are on the short list for best starting rotations in the game. Washington may have the better 'pen, but Cleveland is excellent at home (26-16) and has Danny Salazar starting. Go w/ them. Salazar is a real key to this play. He's worked his way into Cy Young contention by going 11-3 w/ the third lowest ERA in the American League (2.75). He hasn't taken a loss since May 22nd, going 7-0 since that time (nine starts). Overall, Cleveland has the best starting rotation in the American League as it is #1 in ERA, so that's what Washington is up against here. There have been just two starts all season where Salazar has allowed more than three earned runs. That puts a lot of pressure on Nats' starter Gio Gonzalez, who actually is off one of his better outings in recent memory. But the team is still only only 3-8 his L11 starts overall and he has a 4.85 ERA on the road (3-6 TSR) and that's while typically facing the pitcher's spot in the lineup. Another big key for these teams moving forward is the respective schedules. All nine of Cleveland's games since the All-Star Break have come out on the road while all nine of Washington's took place at home. So, Cleveland's 4-5 record actually looks a bit better than Washington's, especially seeing as the Nats just dropped two of three to the lowly Padres, including allowing a season-high 10 runs Sunday. Thanks to the Republican National Convention and All-Star Break, the Indians actually haven't played a home game in over two weeks. 20 of their next 25 games are here at Progressive Field, so there's an opportunity for a big August. They've won seven straight Interleague games as well. Washington, who is embarking on a 10-game road trip, is just 7-14 the L3 seasons when priced between +125 and +150 on the money line in road games. 10* Cleveland |
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07-26-16 | Cubs -170 v. White Sox | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -170 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (7:10 ET): The Cubbies' perceived invincibility has taken a bit of a hit this month (just 8-12 in July), but even after taking a disappointing loss yday to the White Sox, there is no doubt in my mind that they remain the best team in baseball. Their +149 run differential for the year remains way ahead of the rest of the pack and yday saw them acquire closer extraordinaire Aroldis Chapman, thereby solidifying the team's lone "weakness." I see the Northside getting a little revenge here in the "Battle for Chicago" Tuesday before the series heads to Wrigley for the next two games. The White Sox remain a team littered with issues and the fact they don't have Chris Sale going in this series really hurts them. Over their last three starts respectively, both of tonight's starters have pitched very well. The Cubs' Kyle Hendricks has allowed all of one run (it was unearned) during that time and has a 1.019 WHIP. The White Sox' James Shields has a 2.08 ERA and 0.923 WHIP over the same time, but there's been a big difference in terms of results for the two pitchers. Hendricks has a 3-0 TSR while Shields is 0-3. This is a reflection on the White Sox poor hitting. The club ranks 24th in runs scored and while they scored five times in Monday's walkoff win, they've scored more only one time since the All-Star Break. Remember that this offense was infamously shutout three straight times earlier this month. I really like Hendricks' chances here. Note that among the Cubs five "regular" starters, he has lowest overall WHIP. The team has also won his L6 starts overall! As for Shields, whether it was with the Padres or now with the White Sox, he's been one of the biggest money-burning starters in all of baseball w/ a 5-15 TSR resulting in a loss of 10.5 units. He continues to be plagued by the longball as he's given up six home runs in his last five starts. His strikeout numbers are also below par. The Cubs have typically been a very good bounce back team all season, going 23-14 off a loss, and bounce back is what I expect them to do this evening in this nationally televised matchup. 8* Chi Cubs |
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07-25-16 | Yankees v. Astros -147 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -147 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:10 ET): Though I'm taking both teams tonight, I would not be surprised to see the Astros eventually pass the Rangers for the AL West lead. When it comes to run suppression, they are second best in the American League, having allowed only one more than Cleveland. On the subject of run suppression, tonight Dallas Keuchel will be on the mound. Last year, Keuchel was virtually unbeatable here at Minute Maid Park, turning in a 16-0 WL record in 19 starts (17-2 TSR), but 2016 has been a bit of a different story. Still, there have been signs of him turning things around (2.33 ERA, 1.035 WHIP L3 starts overall) plus the team has now won four straight (allowed only 6 runs!) after sweeping the Angels over the weekend. The Yankees season is on the verge of ending once they deal away their bullpen assets. I like Keuchel and Houston in tonight's series opener. Keuchel has delivered four straight quality starts, allowing 2 ER or less while going at least six innings every time out. A 4-3 loss to Oakland his last time out was the first time the team had lost w/ him on the mound in six starts. Note that was a no decision for Keuchel as the loss was on the bullpen, which allowed all four runs. Given his past history against the Yankees, including LY's Wild Card Game, I expect a strong effort here out of Keuchel. Earlier this year, he held the Yanks to two runs and three hits in seven innings, improving to 3-1 lifetime against them (1.45 ERA). He starts on five days' rest here and has a 20-8 team start record when doing so. Going for the Yankees tonight will be Michael Pineda. While he's coming off a super showing (six shutout innings vs. Baltimore), that was at home and as a -210 favorite on the money line. The odds are certainly not in Pineda's favor here considering the Astros are 21-6 their L27 home games. Also, the Yankees are just 6-13 their L19 road games vs. a team with a winning record. I was surprised to see New York take the series from the Giants over the weekend, but again, it's only a matter of time until this bullpen gets broken up. Meanwhile, Houston's roster is getting stronger with the callup of top rated prospect Alex Bregman for today's game. Before the Baltimore start, Pineda had allowed 5 ER in B2B starts. 8* Houston |
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07-25-16 | A's v. Rangers -142 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show |
8* Texas (8:05 ET): July has been very unkind to the Rangers (just 6-13), but quite frankly all of 2016 has been unkind to the A's, who are languishing well below .500 and have the second worst run differential (-73) in the entire American League. Oakland did just win three straight games, all by one run, over Tampa Bay. But the fact Texas just won B2B games in Kansas City is obviously far more impressive. The Rangers know a thing or two about winning one-run games (20-7 record), which is why their record is 15 games above .500 despite only a +4 run differential. I'd been primarily fading them following the All-Star Break, but I don't think there's any denying they're clearly the better team here. Somewhat shocking is the fact that the A's are 16-6 their L22 games here in Arlington, but this is their first visit here in 2016. I'm going w/ the home team. Texas has been a strong home team all year w/ a 29-15 record here. Note they've only played here four times in the L28 days. One player on the team that has to be ecstatic to be back in Arlington is pitcher Martin Perez, who is coming off a rather disastrous three-start stretch (all on the road) where his ERA and WHIP ended up being 10.91 and 2.042 respectively. But here at home, his numbers are solid (2.48, 1.307) and his team start record is 6-3 (he's 6-1 personally). The team has won his L5 starts here and 20 of 28 overall against teams with losing records. Perez has faced the A's twice this year (both times in Oakland remember) and both times allowed 4 runs in 7 IP. I expect him to be better tonight as the A's come in averaging just 3.1 rpg their last seven and this is their first time playing on the road since the All-Star Break. This is the Rangers first time being back at home since the Break. The starter Oakland is bringing to this fight is certainly not someone worth fearing as Daniel Mengden has similar numbers to Perez over his L3 starts (10.38, 2.077), but the difference is that his season-long numbers are pretty bad as well (5.52, 1.545). As a result, the team has come out on the losing end six of the last eight times he's started. This is the first time since 2014 that they've won three consecutive series and they haven't had a win streak of more than three games since the start of June. They were a little lucky to beat the Rays three straight days as they took the lead in the eighth inning or later every time. Time to "sell high" on a bad team. 8* Texas |
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07-25-16 | Tigers v. Red Sox -142 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -142 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:05 ET): I'd place both of these teams within a grouping of three in their respective divisions. In the case of Boston, they're battling both Baltimore and Toronto right now for the AL East crown. They enter the day just 1.5 games back of the Orioles for first place. One could make the argument that the Red Sox are the best their division has to offer given their +86 run differential not only tops everybody else in the East, but it is tied for best in the entire A.L. Meanwhile, Detroit is just battling for second in the AL Central (w/ Kansas City and Chicago), in my opinion. Though still three games above .500 for the year, the Tigers have been outscored and just dropped two games yday to the White Sox. Though they only had to play one more inning than usual Sunday (Saturday's game was suspended after eight innings and thus they only had to make up the ninth), it puts the visitors at a distinct disadvantage. |
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07-24-16 | Braves v. Rockies -195 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
6* Colorado (4:10 ET): These teams met right after the All-Star Break, in Atlanta, and the Rockies missed out on a chance to sweep, dropping the final game 1-0. Needless to say, that kind of score shouldn't reasonably be expected here today at Coors Field where the Rocks have already beaten the Braves three days in a row and now go for the four-game sweep. Atlanta's offense is so poor that it is unlikely to be aided by even the thin air here. They've scored just 10 runs in the series and rank dead last in all of baseball in runs scored this year. Winning a slugfest is basically the only shot a visiting team has here in Denver and that's simply not the way the Braves are presently constructed. Colorado averages 6.2 rpg at home for the season. Now Rockies starter Tyler Chatwood has certainly shown signs of regression and one might question whether or not he deserves to be in this lofty price range. Tyler Anderson certainly did yday though and it should be pointed out that Atlanta has now been outscored by 133 runs over the course of the season, second worst in all of baseball (Reds). Chatwood is definitely feeling the effects of Coors Field as his ERA here (6.26) is roughly FIVE points higher than it is on the road (1.30). Yes, the effect this ballpark can have on a pitcher absolutely must be taken into account. But my take is that if a pitcher can be that effective on the road, that should translate wherever he pitches. Chatwood didn't even get to face the Braves in the previous series and had allowed 3 ER or less in 12 of his first 15 starts overall this season. Hopeless Atlanta counters w/ Tyrell Jenkins, who has made just two big-league starts and you'd expect to struggle in his first foray into Coors. Jenkins certainly hasn't pitched poorly in his first two outings, but you'll want to note that he also benefited from facing two of of the easiest possible opponents, Philadelphia and Cincinnati. The Braves are generally terrible in all situations, but they've really struggled during the daytime, going 49-74 the L3 seasons including 12-19 in 2016. On average, they are being outscored by 1.3 rpg on the road this year. 6* Colorado |
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07-24-16 | Indians -129 v. Orioles | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -129 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (1:35 ET): While Baltimore has been tremendous this season at Camden Yards (not so much on the road), I would have expected Cleveland to perform better than they have in the first two games of this series. Especially considering the huge edge in starting pitching they seemingly have on paper. While the Indians have given up the fewest number of runs of any American League team, Orioles starters have an ERA north of 5.00, which is almost unfathomable for a team in first place in its own division. But I look for that 35-14 home record to take a hit today as the Tribe sends Corey Kluber to the hill. Honestly, the way that Cleveland's rotation set up for this series wasn't great, but Kluber should take care of business. |
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07-24-16 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -170 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
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