Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
10* Boston (9:00 ET): It’s do or die tonight for the Celtics, who are back at home and facing elimination. This will be the fourth time the team has faced elimination this postseason and obviously they have gone 3-0 the previous three times. They are 3-0 ATS in those three wins as well, two of them coming on the road, including a Game 7 in Miami. (Also beat Milwaukee in Games 6 and 7 in the Conference Semis). This will be the 1st time in the postseason where the C’s are off B2B SU losses as prior to losing Game 5, they had been 7-0 SU/ATS off a SU loss. I can’t see them losing at home in this spot, so lay the points. There have been five times in this postseason run that Boston has found itself down in the series. All five times they won and covered the spread. This is the first time in the NBA Finals that they’ve been behind in the series. One could argue that they should have won both prior games here at home. They cruised to a 116-100 victory in Game 3, then led most of the way in Game 4 (before falling apart down the stretch). You have to anticipate that the Celtics will shoot better than 41.3%, which is where they finished in Game 5. They were also a series-worst 11 of 32 from three-point range (34.4%). Going into Game 5, the Celtics were 10-2 ATS this season when off a double digit defeat. They’ve been held under 100 points in back to back games, which is something that I can’t see happening again. Now, with the Warriors having gone 9 of 40 from three-point range in the last game (including 0 of 9 from Steph Curry), Boston will have to be prepared for Golden State to score more as well. But I think they’re up for the challenge and while the Dubs are very likely to shoot better than 22.5% from behind the arc, they may not hit 46.6% overall (a series high) like they did in Game 5. Golden State is just 2-6 ATS its L8 road games. 10* Boston |
|||||||
06-13-22 | Celtics +4 v. Warriors | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 22 m | Show |
10* Boston (9:00 ET): I’m still a believer in Boston winning this series, so taking the points in Game 5 seems like the logical call. The Celtics still sport the higher net efficiency rating in the playoffs, even after losing Game 4. They’ve outscored opponents by six points per 100 possessions while Golden State is at just 3.9. While Game 4 was at home, remember that the Celtics did lead most of the way, until falling prey to a Steph Curry fourth quarter barrage. The Warriors are only averaging 103.5 PPG against Boston in six meetings this year. I just think taking the points is the way to go here. Of course, supporting a play on the Celtics here is the fact they have yet to suffer B2B losses in the playoffs. Since sweeping Brooklyn, they’ve gone a perfect 7-0 straight up and against the spread off a loss and five of those seven wins have been by double digits. Only one, Game 7 vs. Miami, was by fewer than eight points. Going back even further, the Celtics are 15-5 ATS off an outright loss as a favorite this season and 10-2 ATS following a double digit loss. Boston had too many turnovers in Game 4. It’s something we’ve seen from them before in these playoffs and it usually ends in defeat. But the good news is that they almost always clean up the “turnover bug” the next game. The Celtics also shot just 40% from the field in Game 4, a number they will improve upon Monday night. They continue to shoot well from three; it was a disappointing 19 of 47 from inside the arc that cost them in the last game. This team is 33-17-2 ATS on the road. 10* Boston |
|||||||
06-10-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 107-97 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
10* Boston (9:00 ET): We know that the Celtics have yet to lose B2B games this postseason. They’re now 7-0 SU/ATS following a loss after downing the Warriors 116-100 Wednesday night in Game 3. That win also puts them up 2-1 in the NBA Finals. If Boston is to win the NBA Championship, I think tonight's game is of critical importance. If they don’t win here, then they’re going to have to win again at Golden State, which is not easy to do. As I said at the outset of the series (I had Boston in Game 1), I feel the Celtics have been the better team all season - posting a better scoring differential and net efficiency rating than the Warriors. I’m laying the points in Game 4. The fact that Boston is up in the series despite Steph Curry averaging more than 30 PPG is a positive sign, in my view. Curry is now banged up, with an unspecified injury that he suffered near the end of Game 3. He’s vowed to play tonight, but will he be at 100 percent? The last three games have been the best stretch of three-point shooting from Curry in the playoffs and my gut tells me that he was “due” for an off-night anyways. Remember how good Boston is defensively; they were #1 in scoring defense during the regular season and have been even stingier in the playoffs, allowing only 101.6 PPG. In five meetings with the Celtics this season, Golden State has only averaged 102.8 PPG. The Warriors’ defense isn’t nearly as good on the road as it is at home and we saw them let the Celtics shoot 48.3% from the floor in Game 3. Boston has also made 49 threes in three games, shooting 43% from behind the arc. Golden State has been pretty similar, but was expected to be ahead in that department and, as I said earlier, I believe Curry is set to regress. The Warriors, surprisingly, are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. They’ve lost four of the last five outright. 10* Boston |
|||||||
06-02-22 | Celtics +3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 35 h 49 m | Show |
10* Boston (9:05 ET): Looking at the respective seasons, I think the Celtics are better than the Warriors. The numbers bear this out, not just for the playoffs, but the regular season as well. In the regular season, Boston had the better net efficiency rating (+8.1 vs. +6.6) while in the playoffs, that advantage is now +6.6 to +5.2. Taking that into careful consideration and the fact that the public seems OVERWHELMINGLY in favor of the Warriors here, I’ll be taking the points in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. These were the top two teams in defensive efficiency during the regular season and Boston was #1 in scoring defense. In the playoffs, giving up just 101 PPG, the Celtics have moved well past the Warriors in terms of defensive efficiency. I also think that Boston had the far tougher path to get here, ousting Brooklyn, Milwaukee and Phoenix while GS only had to get past Denver, Memphis and Dallas. The fact that Boston is coming off a seven-game series is mitigated by the fact they haven’t had to play since Sunday, giving them three days off. The Celtics have been true “road warriors” this season, going 32-16 ATS away from home. They are 6-1 ATS as road underdogs in these playoffs. In the two regular season matchups, these teams each won on the other’s floor. I know that the Warriors have the flashier offense, more star power and the home court advantage. But I believe that the Celtics are the better team here and the public isn’t really clued into it. Boston is actually 7-3 straight up the previous 10 meetings with Golden State and I look for them to do the job defensively on Steph Curry in Game 1. 10* Boston |
|||||||
05-27-22 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
10* Miami (8:30 ET): The Heat cannot possibly play any worse than they have the last two games, right? They’ve averaged just 81 points in a pair of double digit losses, the last one coming at home and leaving them in a situation where they now need to beat the Celtics two straight. I would be shocked if the Heat came back to win this series as - coming in - I felt Boston was the deserved favorite. But this is too many to pass up with a Miami team that’s 19-8 ATS as an underdog and playing for its season. In a game that’s expected to be low-scoring, taking the points just seems like the way to go. Miami made just 31.9% of its field goal attempts in Game 5 and was 7 of 45 from three-point range! Needless to say, you should expect their shooting to improve. There’s room for improvement from their entire starting five, which collectively has scored a pathetic 60 points (total!) the L2 games. In particular, look to Max Strus, who has somehow gone 0 for 16 from the field, 11 of those misses coming from three-point range. Then you have Kyle Lowry, who was 0 for 6 in the last game and Victor Oladipo, who was 1 for 7. Jimmy Butler was 4 for 18 in Game 5 and has scored just 27 points the L3 games. Someone on this team HAS to step up! The Heat were winning at halftime in Game 5, 42-37. Then the wheels came off, similar to what happened for Boston in Game 1. Though no game in the series has been particularly close (only one decided by single digits), this is the largest spread we’ve seen. I don’t expect Miami to simply “roll over” as they are 7-1 ATS the L8 times they’ve been off a double digit loss at home. Also, there have been only two times that the Heat have lost three straight games this year. Once was before Thanksgiving, the other was a four-game slide in late March. Since the start of April, they’ve lost B2B games only once. That was the last round vs. Philadelphia and they responded by crushing the Sixers 120-85 in the next game. 10* Miami |
|||||||
05-25-22 | Celtics -1.5 v. Heat | Top | 93-80 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
10* Boston (8:30 ET): This has been a curious Eastern Conference Finals with the first four games all being blowouts. Each game of the series has seen a lead of at least 20 points. In Game 4, it was Boston’s turn as they jumped out to an 18-1 lead and never looked back. Miami missed its first 14 field goal attempts and its one point through eight minutes was the fewest in any playoff game in the L25 years. The Celtics were up 29-11 at the end of the first quarter and stretched their lead to 27 in the second and 32 in the third. The game was essentially over by halftime. Boston is now 5-0 SU/ATS off a SU loss this postseason. It would be easy to say “now it’s the Heat’s turn” as the series goes back to Miami for Game 5. The “Zig Zag Theory” has been in full force in this series and the Heat have only lost once at home (Game 2) this postseason. But let’s not forget a few things. Boston, despite not having the home court advantage, was the favorite coming into this series. They also had the East’s best point differential and net efficiency rating. They’ve been the team up at the half in three of the four games. If not for the third quarter meltdown, the Celtics would be up three games to one. It is my view that the Celtics are the better team and the oddsmakers seem to agree by installing them as Game 5 favorites. Miami had six players listed as questionable going into Game 4. Most ended up playing, but the starting five combined for only 18 points, the fewest in a playoff game going back to 1970-71. Obviously that number will go up tonight, but don’t expect the Heat’s bench to score anywhere close to 64 points again. If anything, the point totals from the starting five and reserves may simply reverse. Also, don’t expect Boston to shoot only 23.5% from three again. That they won Game 4 by 20 points, despite being -18 from three-point range is pretty amazing. Right now, the Celtics’ net efficiency rating in the playoffs is several points higher than Miami’s. Look for them to justify being favored in this spot as they take a 3-2 series lead. 10* Boston |
|||||||
05-24-22 | Warriors v. Mavs | Top | 109-119 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
10* Dallas (9:00 ET): While the Mavericks are down 3-0 in the series and have lost the three games by a combined 43 points, things have actually been more competitive than they seem. The Mavs led Game 2 at the half and were only down one at the half in Game 3. They turned in the defensive effort I expected in the last game, holding Golden State to “just” 46.1% shooting after letting them shoot 56.1% in the first two games. Problem was that the Mavs only shot 40% themselves in Game 3, including a woeful 13 of 45 from three-point range. Take Luka Doncic (40 points) out of the equation and the Mavs’ offensive numbers from Game 3 get real ugly. With the season on the line, at home, I expect better tonight. Three Mavericks, Doncic plus Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie, combined for 86 of the team’s 100 points on Sunday. I’m expecting a more balanced effort tonight as the Mavs look to keep their season going. I’m pretty confident that we’ll be getting another strong effort at the defensive end as they are #1 in the league at home in scoring defense, allowing only 101.1 PPG. The three-point shooting is where the Mavs should really improve tonight. They hit 35% from downtown for the year, but have been well below that mark in two of the first three games of this series. This is just the third time all season that Dallas has been on a three-game losing streak. They have won and covered in the previous two spots, both of which came before X-Mas. Furthermore, the team has gone 19-5 ATS this season following a game where it scored 100 points or less. All signs point to improvement at the offensive end from the Mavs and given their season-long defensive prowess, I do think they get the win they need tonight. Golden State has failed to win both potential close out games on the road this postseason (allowed 130 PPG), including a 39-point loss in Memphis. 10* Dallas |
|||||||
05-19-22 | Celtics +4.5 v. Heat | Top | 127-102 | Win | 100 | 30 h 46 m | Show |
10* Boston (8:30 ET): The Celtics had the scoring edge in three of the four quarters Tuesday night. Problem is they got annihilated in the third, getting outscored 39-14 by the Heat. While Boston may not get out to the same hot start we saw in Game 1 (62 points in the first half), I do like them to bounce back and at least cover the number here in Game 2. The status of both Marcus Smart and Al Horford remain in question for tonight, but Smart has been upgraded to probable. Regardless, without those two players, Boston looked like the better team for 75% of Game 1. Take the points. It was Jimmy Butler (41 points) again bailing out the Heat in Game 1. He was 17 of 18 from the free throw line though, which I don’t think can be repeated here. The Heat could be missing both Max Straus and Gabe Vincent, in addition to Kyle Lowry (out) tonight. I know that this team is undefeated at home in the postseason (7-0 SU) with all but one of those wins coming by double digits. But Boston is 3-0 ATS this postseason when down in the series and has not lost B2B games since the end of March. The Celtics are 8-2 ATS following a double digit loss this season and outscoring opponents by 8.4 PPG when off an ATS loss. The Celtics had some expected three-point regression in Game 1, but what was surprising was the fact they allowed 118 points. This was the #1 scoring defense in the NBA during the regular season. In its previous seven games, Miami had topped 108 only twice. The probable return of Smart, the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year, should certainly help at that end of the floor, especially when it comes to containing Butler. Even if Smart can’t go, Butler has only averaged 21.5 PPG off his two previous 40+ point efforts this postseason. There’s no rest advantage this time for Miami. 10* Boston |
|||||||
05-17-22 | Celtics +2 v. Heat | Top | 107-118 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
8* Boston (8:45 ET): The Celtics, despite NOT having the home court advantage for the series, enter as favorites to win the Eastern Conference Finals vs. Miami. That makes sense to me as the Celtics had the best scoring differential and net efficiency rating among teams in the East, during the regular season. They were my pick to win the East before the playoffs started and after eliminating Brooklyn and Milwaukee, the team has given me no reason to come off that opinion. If the Celtics are to confirm their status as series favorites, it stands to reason they’ll win one of these first two games in MIami. I’m taking the points in Game 1. Miami is the top seed and hasn’t lost at home in the playoffs. But I don’t think they’ve faced what Boston has faced in the first two rounds. The Celtics have had to contain the likes of Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Heat faced a subpar Hawks team in Round 1, then their Round 2 opponent (Philadelphia) was a bit of a mess as Joel Embiid was out the first two games and James Harden was never himself. I’m not sure the Heat can continue to rely so heavily on Jimmy Butler at the offensive end, especially against one of the premier defensive teams in the league. I know that Miami has a pretty nice scheduling edge heading into the series as they’ve been off for four days while Boston just won a Game 7 on Sunday. But it was a comfortable win for the Celtics 48 hours ago. The Celtics lost only once by more than three points in the second round and that was actually Game 1, when they were coming off a long layoff after sweeping the Nets in Round 1. The fact that Boston is the better team and series favorite is reflected in this number, but I just believe they’re set to “make good.” Even though the last series went seven games, no team posted a better net efficiency rating in Round 2 than did the C’s, who also have the best net overall efficiency rating in the playoffs. 8* Boston |
|||||||
05-12-22 | Suns v. Mavs +2 | Top | 86-113 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
8* Dallas (9:30 ET): Top seed Phoenix is coming off a blowout win (110-80) and can close the series out with a win tonight. Problem is the Suns are 0-7 against the spread this season following a game where they allowed 90 points or less. The home team has yet to lose a game in this series (same with Miami-Philadelphia) and as previously mentioned by me, the big difference for Dallas when they are at home is their defense really improves (101.3 PPG allowed). They held the Suns to 94 and 101 points in the first two games here. I’m taking the points in Game 6 as the Mavs likely force a Game 7. As you’d expect from a team that scored only 80 points, the Mavs shot dreadfully on Tuesday night, making only 38% of their total field goal attempts, including 8 of 32 from three-point range. In Games 3 and 4 here at home, they shot around 44% overall (still not that great) but also made a total of 33 threes. I am expecting vast improvement from beyond the arc tonight. Outside of Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson, the rest of the Mavs scored only 31 points on 8 of 31 shooting in Game 5. As I say so often, role players typically perform much better at home. It should also be pointed out that in two of its three losses in this series, Dallas has largely been the better team in the first half. They led at halftime in Game 2 (lost by 20) and then were also up with three minutes to go in the first half in Game 5. The team is an outstanding 18-4 ATS this season after being held under 100 points the previous game (28-9 ATS L3 seasons). The season is on the line tonight, they are at home and without question will be better than they were Tuesday. 8* Dallas |
|||||||
05-10-22 | Mavs +6 v. Suns | Top | 80-110 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
10* Dallas (10:00 ET): Both of Tuesday’s series have seen the underdog storm back to even the series at two games apiece. In both instances, the home team has also won all four games. In this one, most were writing Dallas off entering Game 3, but not me as I cashed the Mavs last Friday (10* Game of the Week) as they won 103-94. Then in Game 4, I was holding an Under ticket and had to sweat that out. Scoring plummeted in the second half (thankfully) and that Under bet was a winner by three points. I’m 3-0 in the series as I had the Over in Game 1. Now for the first time I’ll “repeat” a previous bet and take the Mavs (plus the points) in Game 5. Dallas has led at the half each of the last three games and really dominated the last two from wire to wire. Now I realize the series now moves back to Phoenix, a place where the Mavs have not won in three years. But I think the defense and three-point shooting we saw in the two home games can “travel.” Again, this is a team that took two of three games in the first round vs. Utah without Luka Doncic. Phoenix was overdue for a “correction” in the shooting department after making 50% or better in each of the first eight playoff games. Sure enough, Dallas held them to 44.7% and 46.4% in the L2 games. The Suns made only nine threes in Game 4, which was also overdue. Shockingly poor play from Chris Paul also contributed to the two Mavs’ wins. Paul had seven turnovers in Game 3 then committed four first half fouls in Game 4. He played less than four minutes in the second half. Obviously, that’s unlikely to happen again here. But this just seems like too many points to lay in what should be a closely contested matchup. Looking at the betting percentages, the Suns have the look of a very “public” side in Game 5 and a team you’d want to fade. Dallas has seized the “momentum” and is 42-18-1 ATS its last 61 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of .600 or greater. 10* Dallas |
|||||||
05-10-22 | 76ers +3.5 v. Heat | Top | 85-120 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (7:30 ET): All of a sudden, we’ve got a series on our hands as the Sixers won both games at home to even the series up at two games apiece. Now Miami is still favored, in this game and the series, as it still possesses the homecourt edge. The Heat endured two brutal shooting games in Philadelphia, making only 14 of 65 attempts from behind the three-point line. Compare that to the 76ers, who were 16 of 33 (48.5%) in both games. While you’ve got to expect better three-point shooting from Miami (the #1 three-point shooting team in the reg season) at home, it’s pretty clear to me that the series has changed dramatically since Joel Embiid returned. Take the points in Game 5. You also can’t understate the performance Philadelphia got from James Harden in Game 4. Harden scored 31, after averaging only 17.6 PPG in Gms 1-3, and hit the critical three in the 4Q. Embiid had 24 points and 11 rebounds, his second “double-double” in as many games since returning from injury. The other three starters also all scored in double figures. Both Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris have proven that they can be consistent contributors offensively. If you’re thinking leaving Philadelphia will substantially hurt the Sixers, think again. Yes, they lost Games 1 & 2 here. But they actually have a better SU record on the road (29-17) than at home (28-18) this season. While Philly likely has the two best players in its ranks and is getting a variety of contributions offensively, Miami isn’t getting much beyond Jimmy Butler right now. Butler has seen his scoring go up in every game this series and had 40 pts in Game 4. But the rest of the team went just 25 of 62 (40%) from the field. In Game 3, Butler had 33 pts and the rest of the team scored just 46. Kyle Lowry has been a non-factor since coming back from injury while Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro have both been inconsistent. While the home team has won all four games in this series, the Heat have only outscored the Sixers by two points. I’m expecting a close one on Tuesday and will be taking the points with the hotter team. 8* Philadelphia |
|||||||
05-07-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -6.5 | Top | 112-142 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
8* Golden State (8:30 ET): The Warriors were able to wrest home court advantage away from the Grizzlies, taking Game 1 by a score of 117-116. Having bet the Over, that result sat well with me. I sat out Game 2 (no play), which was won by Memphis 106-101 and not without controversy. Dillon Brooks injuring Gary Payton II has resulted in BOTH players being out for Game 3 (Brooks is suspended). We saw both home teams come out fired up last night in NBA playoff action and though not down 0-2 in the series like the Sixers & Mavs, I expect the Warriors to come out just as fired up here. Another difference between the Dubs and last night’s home sides is that we are having to lay points. Not a concern of mine as they are, in my estimation, clearly the better team here. Memphis was fortunate to advance out of the first round, let alone take the series in six games, They overcame double-digit deficits in the fourth quarter in three of those wins. Losing Brooks is going to be significant as he had three 23+ point games vs. the Timberwolves. I also don’t see Ja Morant matching his Game 2 production (47 points) tonight as he made more threes on Tuesday (five) than he did in the entire first round series (four). Speaking of three-point shooting, the Warriors were historically bad in Game 2, making only 18.4 percent. It was the worst three-point shooting performance in the playoffs in franchise history. Klay Thompson was 2 for 12 while Steph Curry was 3 for 11. To say they’ll improve dramatically tonight seems like an obvious statement. Memphis, despite Morant’s 47 points, didn’t shoot that well either in the last game. But Golden State clearly has more room for improvement here and they are 34-10 SU at home (3-0 in Rd 1), outscoring visiting teams by more than 10 PPG on the year. They’ve held the rebounding edge in both games. 8* Golden State |
|||||||
05-06-22 | Suns v. Mavs | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 34 h 11 m | Show |
10* Dallas (9:30 ET): The Mavericks seem to have no answers for the Suns as they’ve lost the first two games of this series by 7 and 20 points. The first game wasn’t really that close as Dallas was down double digits most of the way and trailed by 16 with just five minutes remaining. It’s not just these two games where the Mavs have struggled against the Suns either. Going back to the beginning of 2020, they’ve lost 11 straight head to head matchups and only covered the spread twice. But now the series moves back to Dallas where the Mavs are 31-13 SU this year and giving up only 101.5 PPG. Game 2 was a little different than Game 1 in the sense that this time the Mavs were only down six entering the fourth quarter. But then Chris Paul took over and it turned into another blowout situation. Dallas actually led at halftime, 60-58, but simply could not match the hot shooting of the Suns, who finished the game at a blistering 64.5% from the floor. Even if the series wasn’t moving to Dallas for Game 3, you know there is no way Phoenix can match that kind of overall shooting percentage. They were also 52% (13 of 25) from three-point range. Paul and Devin Booker were a combined 22 of 35 from the floor. No player on the Suns shot below 50% for the game! C’mon man! From previous analysis that I’ve done, you might recall that teams down 0-2 in a best of seven series do quite well when returning home for Game 3. Not necessarily in the first round of this year’s playoffs, but historically teams in this spot are hitting well over 60% ATS. The Mavs will essentially be playing for their season here as no team in NBA history has ever erased a 3-0 series deficit. Considering Dallas has shot 41 percent from three-point range so far in this series, I think they can get the job done in Game 3. They beat Utah twice without Luka Doncic in Round 1 and the role players will play better at home. 10* Dallas |
|||||||
05-04-22 | 76ers +8.5 v. Heat | Top | 103-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:35 ET): Joel Embiid remains out for Philadelphia, but the Sixers led Game 1 at the half and seemed to be en route to at least a cover. That was until things went awry midway through the third quarter and Miami took control defensively, holding the Sixers to just 31 points over the final 20 minutes. James Harden, who will obviously need to step it up offensively with Embiid out, scored just 16 points on 5 of 13 shooting in Game 1. You’ve got to figure he’ll do better tonight. Plus, he has help with Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris, the latter of whom went for 27 points on Tuesday night. I’m taking the points here. Philly shot a dreadful 17.6% from three-point range in Game 1, going just 6 of 34. That was especially bad, considering Miami (who is one of the league’s better 3-pt shooting teams) made only 9 of 36 from behind the arc. While both teams figure to improve from distance tonight, I think it’s clear that the 76ers have more room to improve and it’s difficult for me to envision them being any worse than they were offensively in the first game. After being held 100 points the previous game, the Sixers have gone an impressive 16-4 straight up and 13-7 against the spread this season. They are also on a 35-17-1 ATS run following a double digit loss. Miami’s only postseason loss thus far came by a single point, on the road, but it is notable they’ve failed to score more than 110 points in any of the last four games. As I said in the Game 1 analysis, Philadelphia was able to beat the Heat in the final regular season matchup, despite not having Embiid AND Harden. Going back to Philly’s ability to bounce back from a bad loss, the last time they were off a double digit loss where they were held below 100 points was Game 6 against the Raptors. They ended up closing out the series with a 132-97 road win. Take the points. 10* Philadelphia |
|||||||
05-02-22 | 76ers +8.5 v. Heat | Top | 92-106 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 52 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (7:30 ET): So the big story here is that the 76ers will be without Joel Embiid, though reports have surfaced he could be back as early as Game 3. But that obviously doesn’t help Philly tonight. What does help is having James Harden. I think that the market has slightly overreacted to the news of Embiid’s absence as the Sixers were bet out as far as +8.5 for Game 1 in Miami. Remember that we’ve seen Dallas win without Luka Doncic, Phoenix win without Devin Booker and more recently (yday) Milwaukee go to Boston and win without Khris Middleton. Not saying the Sixers pull the outright upset here, but the spread seems too large. It’s not as if Miami is 100 percent healthy right now either. Kyle Lowry is still out while Jimmy Butler missed the close out game vs. Atlanta and Tyler Herro has been battling a cold. Butler and Herro will reportedly play tonight. But with so many players less than 100%, can the Heat score enough to cover this spread? I don’t think so. Harden should put up monster numbers for Philadelphia and it’s worth noting he averaged 10.5 assists per game in the first round vs. Toronto. Tyrese Maxey can also help fill the scoring void left by Embiid’s absence. Maxey scored 38 in Game 1 vs. Toronto, and is third in the league in three-point efficiency. Only six players took part in all four 76ers-Heat regular season matchups. I think it is worth noting though that without Embiid and Harden, the Sixers defeated the Heat 113-106 (as eight-point underdogs) back on March 21st. Now that was at home. But they shot 50% overall as a team and were 40% from three-point range. Also, the Sixers’ defense was outstanding against the Heat in the regular season as Gabe Vincent was the only Miami player to average more than 20 PPG against them. The four games saw the Heat only outscore the Sixers by four total points. Expect Game 1 to be close. 8* Philadelphia |
|||||||
04-28-22 | Mavs v. Jazz | Top | 98-96 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
10* Utah (10:00 ET): The Jazz are facing elimination at home in Game 6, something they would not have expected after previously “stealing” the home court advantage away with a Game 1 win in Dallas. The Mavericks played the first three games of this series without superstar Luka Doncic, but won two of the three. After losing Game 4 (here in Salt Lake City) by a single points, the Mavs bounced back and romped to a 102-77 victory as three-point favorites. I know it was a terrible call by me taking Utah in that game, but I still believe they are the better team and we are getting a great price on them at home. After some concern he’d miss Game 6, Jazz PG Deron Williams is likely to play tonight. But I think that the bigger boost comes from returning home where the team is 30-13 SU on the year and outscoring visiting teams by 9.2 PPG. Dallas is not as staunch defensively on the road as it is at home and the Jazz are going to shoot MUCH better from three-point land tonight than they did in Game 5. How could they not? Their 3 of 30 performance on Tuesday was the worst percentage in NBA Playoff history! In the regular season, Utah was tied for the most efficient offense in the NBA and they average 116.4 PPG at home. It has been rather shocking to see them get held to 104 points or less in four of the five games in this series. They did shoot 56.5% from the floor here in Game 3 though, so they’ve shown to be capable. Game 5 marked the first time in the series that the Jazz were underdogs. Considering where the lines were set in the first four games, needing only a SU win tonight seems like a great value. I look for Utah to force a Game 7. 10* Utah |
|||||||
04-26-22 | Hawks +7.5 v. Heat | Top | 94-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:30 ET): The Raptors, who were facing elimination, treated us well last night. So give me the Hawks plus the points, in the same situation on Tuesday. Now it’s not been a great series for Trae Young thus far as he’s averaging just 16.5 PPG and hitting only 20.8% from three-point range. But he is responsible for the Hawks’ only win here vs. Miami (hit the game-winning basket in Game 3) and you’ve got to believe he’s got one good game in him. With the team’s season on the line tonight, now is the perfect time for Young to “show up” and I think he will. As a team, the Hawks have not been held under 100 pts in B2B games since early January. They finished the regular season tied with Utah for #1 in offensive efficiency. So I think it’s quite reasonable to expect them to rebound from the dismal 86-point effort in Game 4. Recall I had the Heat in that game. What’s changed here is that Atlanta’s season is now on the line and we’re getting a healthy amount of points. I know they failed to cover the spread in the first two games here in Miami, but it seems as if the public sentiment is totally against them coming into tonight and it’s a great chance to fire on an undervalued underdog. Remember that Miami is without PG Kyle Lowry. It didn’t seem to matter in Game 4, but not having Lowry is significant. Clint Capella returned for Atlanta in the last game and while he had just two points and seven rebounds, I expect him to play better tonight. It goes without saying that you should expect more points here from Young, who had only nine points in Game 4 and didn’t make a single free throw or two-point basket. Jimmy Butler had 36 for the Heat, but he typically follows up a big game with a subpar one. That’s a bigger deal now that Lowry is out. I can’t guarantee that the Hawks keep their season alive, but they’ll at least cover tonight. 10* Atlanta |
|||||||
04-25-22 | Jazz +3 v. Mavs | Top | 77-102 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
8* Utah (9:30 ET): This will be the first time in the series that the Jazz are underdogs, so I’ll pounce on the opportunity as a win tonight would mean they can close the Mavs out in Salt Lake City on Thursday. Utah has failed to cover each of the last three games in this series, and 12 of 15 going back to the end of the regular season. But again, this is a rare opportunity where you’re getting them plus the points. Not since a game at Boston on 3/23 have the Jazz been more than a one-point underdog against anybody. This will be just the 12th time all season that they check in as dogs! Dallas got Luka Doncic back for Game 4, but it just wasn’t enough as they lost 100-99 on a Rudy Gobert dunk in the closing seconds. The Mavericks shot better than the Jazz on Saturday, from all ranges, so that’s a pretty brutal loss with their star returning. Utah has not shot well from three-point range in this series, going 32% or worse in three of the four games. Perhaps you’ve got to credit the Dallas’ defense, but my gut says the Jazz will fire efficiently from long-range tonight. They were one of the top three-point shooting teams in the league this year and also finished tied (w/ Atlanta) for the league-lead in offensive efficiency. Doncic had 30 points in his return, but it really wasn’t that great of a game and he seemed to have a NEGATIVE effect on the Mavs’ offensive flow. Only one of Doncic’s teammates (Jalen Brunson) scored more than 11 points and the entire bench contributed just 13 points. I’m a little shocked that Dallas is +51 in three-point attempts for the series, considering Utah was a top-two team in that category during the regular season. The Mavs are just 1-5-1 ATS their L7 games as a playoff favorite. Considering that Utah was favored here in the first two games (granted, no Doncic) and how many they were favored by in the two games at home, this seems to be an overadjustment by the oddsmakers. 8* Utah |
|||||||
04-25-22 | Raptors +7.5 v. 76ers | Top | 103-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:00 ET): The Raptors were able to fend off elimination on Saturday, taking Game 4 (at home) by a score of 110-102 as 2.5-point underdogs. As you know, no team in NBA history has ever come back to win a series after losing the first three games. So history is not on Toronto’s side as the series shifts back to Philadelphia for Game 5. But I do like the points tonight as Scottie Barnes (NBA’s Rookie of the Year) has returned for the Raptors and you know that the team will be giving 100% with their season on the line. Now unfortunately, Barnes’ return for Game 4 coincided with the loss of PG Fred Van Vleet to a hip injury. However, I’m not sweating Van Vleet’s questionable status for this game. He’d become a bit of a defensive liability for the Raptors. That said, they did hold the 76ers to an average of 103 points in the two games in Toronto. I also expect the Raptors to shoot much better from three-point range than they did on Saturday. Winning - in spite of going 8 of 34 from behind the arc - was pretty impressive, if you think about it. Pascal Siakam played a heck of a game, scoring 15 of his team-high 34 points in the fourth quarter. Perhaps the biggest injury to make note of heading into Game 5 is on the Philly side as Joel Embiid has a torn ligament in his right thumb and it clearly affected him in the Game 4 loss when he went 7 of 16 from the field. It also didn’t help that James Harden was 5 of 17, including 2 of 8 on three-point attempts. Or that Tyrese Maxey, who had that 38-point effort in Game 1, has seen his own production drop in every game. He scored just 11 points in Game 4. While it’s certainly possible that Harden and/or Maxey play better tonight at home, I think that gets canceled out by the fact the Sixers won’t be +15 again from three-point land. In what oddsmakers project to be a fairly low-scoring tussle, taking the points is the way to go here. 10* Toronto |
|||||||
04-24-22 | Suns v. Pelicans +2.5 | Top | 103-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (9:30 ET): The top-seeded Suns may look like a bargain at this number, but remember they are without leading scorer Devin Booker and won Game 3 by only three points. It was a close game most of the way and the Pelicans caught a tough break in the second quarter when forward Jaxson Hayes was ejected. That led to the Suns dominating points in the paint. The loss of Booker really can’t be understated and I expect New Orleans to spring an upset here, just like they did in Game 2 at Phoenix. New Orleans’ overall record this season is a little misleading as they started 3-16 SU. The acquisition of CJ McCollum proved to be a difference maker as he and Brandon Ingram form an excellent scoring tandem that’s averaged 55.7 PPG in this series. I expect that duo to get more help tonight from Jonas Valanciunas and Larry Nance Jr, who combined to make only two shots in Game 3. The Pelicans have lost B2B home games just once since the All-Star Break. They are 6-1 ATS L7 games off an ATS loss. The loss of Booker was clearly felt as the Suns were a horrid 4 of 26 from three-point range in Game 3. They’ll surely improve upon that percentage tonight, but I wouldn’t look for them to go 40 of 61 (66%!) from two-point range again. The Suns have struggled to defend the three-point line in this series as the Pelicans are shooting 43.5% from behind the arc. Winning twice on the road is tough in the playoffs, especially when you are without your best player. Take the points. 8* New Orleans |
|||||||
04-24-22 | Heat -1.5 v. Hawks | Top | 110-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10* Miami (7:00 ET): The Heat are one Trae Young floater away from being up 3-0 in this first round series and thus they could have been in position to close the Hawks out here on Sunday. But Young made that floater, giving Atlanta a much needed 111-110 win on Friday as they rallied back from a 14-point 4Q deficit. Still, I don’t think there’s any dispute who the better team is and I expect that team (the Heat!) to bounce back with a win in Game 4. Kyle Lowry left Game 3 with a hamstring injury and did not practice on Saturday. But even if he can’t go, I fully anticipate the Heat putting plenty of points on the board tonight. They’ve scored 110 or more in eight straight games and are up against a team with the worst regular season defensive efficiency rating among playoff qualifiers. After shooting 43.2% from three-point range in the first two games, the Heat were down to 31.1% (14 of 45) in Game 3. While some of that has to do with the change in venue, I’d expect improved shooting from behind the arc tonight. Despite the late heroics in the last game, Young is not having a great series. He scored only eight points in Game 1, then had 10 turnovers (career-high) in Game 2. Through three quarters in Game 3, Young had just 14 pts on 3 of 9 shooting. Over his L9 games vs. Miami, Young has averaged only 21.3 points in large part to the Heat’s ability to defend on-ball picks. I realize that Atlanta is a much better team at home (21-3 SU here since 1/17) but they are just 2-9 ATS this season off a SU win as a dog. Lay the short number. 10* Miami |
|||||||
04-23-22 | Celtics v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
8* 1st Half Brooklyn (7:30 ET): First off, note that this is a first half play only where I’m backing the Nets. The Nets are the fourth team this postseason to return home down 0-2 in the series. Of the previous three, only Atlanta (last night) was able to emerge victorious. But two of the three (Atlanta & Toronto) were leading their games at halftime. What sets Brooklyn apart from the previous three teams in this spot is that they are favored to win. The first two games of this series have been close with Game 1 decided on a buzzer-beater and Game 2 seeing the Nets up 10 at the half. This team is too good to fall down 0-3 to the Celtics. I expect them to be leading comfortably at the halftime break. After losing Game 1 at the buzzer, the Nets led by as many as 17 points in Game 2. That was late in the first half. They were still up seven in the fourth quarter before wilting down the stretch and getting outscored 16-2 over a seven-minute stretch. Boston did not take its first lead until there were less than eight minutes left in the game. I can’t see Kevin Durant having a third straight sub-standard game. He’s averaging 25 PPG, but on 13 of 41 from the field and he’s made only two three-pointers. The Celtics have done an excellent job defending Durant, but eventually a player that great is going to have a great game. It happens here. Boston also probably won’t shoot 52% from the field again like it did in Game 2. Even with Durant’s struggles, Brooklyn is averaging 114.5 points in the series and shooting north of 50 percent. Kyrie Irving, after an incredible Game 1 performance with 39 points, cooled off dramatically in Game 2, scoring only 10 and didn’t have a made three. He, like Durant, will have a better effort tonight and I expect the same from the Nets’ role players as well as this game is at home. It would be shocking to me if the home team didn’t get off to another fast start in this game. 8* 1st Half Brooklyn |
|||||||
04-21-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets +2 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
8* Denver (10:05 ET): I expect the Nuggets to come out hot. As you probably know, there has never been a team in NBA history to come back from an 0-3 series deficit. So there’s a natural sense of “urgency” for teams down 0-2 in a best of seven series and when you throw in the fact they are back at home, it’s rather reasonable to expect a strong performance. Interestingly enough, despite losing each of the first two games by double digits, Denver has gotten off to good starts. They’ve lead after the 1Q in both games. It was late in the first half - when GS unveiled its so-called “death lineup” - when Game 1 turned in the Warriors’ favor. It wasn’t until after the halftime break when things unraveled for the Nuggets in Game 2 as they allowed 44 points in the third quarter. Note Denver only shot 31.4% from behind the arc in Game 1 and 42.5% overall in Game 2. Back at home, I certainly expect better shooting from them as they average 114.8 PPG here (59.3 in the 1H) on 48.2% shooting. Golden State, who shot very well in the first two games, should see an offensive decrease here in Game 3. Their number of points per game scored on the road this year is down from what they average at home while the amount of PPG allowed rises. In fact, Golden State has a negative point differential on the road in the first half this season. They are 22-19 SU on the road this season, but that’s a far cry from their 33-10 SU home record. Steph Curry has come off the bench in the first two games; that could change for Game 3, but regardless I think it’s the Nuggets that come out stronger. Going back to the regular season, Golden State has now beaten Denver three straight times, but before that the Nuggets had won the season’s first three meetings, including 131-124 here in the Mile High City back in March. Remember they were up 43-31 in the 2Q in Game 2. 8* Denver |
|||||||
04-21-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 126-118 | Win | 100 | 35 h 38 m | Show |
10* Dallas (9:05 ET): Without Luka Doncic, the Mavericks were able to get a split at home with the Jazz. Now the series moves to Salt Lake City and Doncic is listed as questionable for Game 3 tonight. Doncic averaged 30 points, 11 rebounds and 7.7 assists in the regular season vs. Utah. I probably don’t need to tell you that his return would be gigantic for the Mavs. But, even if he can’t go, I still like the underdog (plus the points) in this one as the Jazz have been big money-burners over the last month or so, going 3-9-1 ATS L13 games. This is too many points that they are laying. In Game 2, the Mavs got a career-high 41 points from Jalen Brunson, made 22 three-pointers (a franchise record for a playoff game) and turned the ball over three times. When you consider that, it’s surprising they only won by six points, but beating the Jazz without Doncic is what counts. While I don’t think we can count on Dallas hitting 22 threes again, Utah’s poor perimeter defense tells me that the Mavs will still make a lot of threes in this game and, defensively, the Jazz have really struggled to contain Dallas’ small-ball lineup. Again, this is a lot of points to lay in a playoff game, especially if Doncic is coming back. The fact Doncic was upgraded to questionable seems like a sign he will play, but regardless, Dallas proved they can stick with Utah even without their best player. Remember that Game 1 was close most of the way with the Jazz only pulling away late. Utah has averaged just 101.5 PPG in the series so far and after a SU loss they are only 10-21-2 ATS this season. Donovan Mitchell needed 30 shots to get to 34 points in Game 2 while Rudy Gobert (save for rebounding) was poor at both ends. Mike Conley didn’t even score a single point as he was in foul trouble. Not saying the Mavs pull the upset, but they’ll at least keep it close. 10* Dallas |
|||||||
04-20-22 | 76ers v. Raptors +2 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -115 | 34 h 1 m | Show |
9* Toronto (7:35 ET): Though it’s officially a best of seven series, Game 3 is pretty much “do or die” for the Raptors as no one has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit in NBA playoff history. It’ll be a boost being back at home and remember because of COVID-19 protocol up in Canada, Philadelphia is going to be without one of its key reserves (Matisse Thybulle) who is unvaccinated. While that may not sound like a big deal, based on the fact Thybulle scored just eight total points in the first two games, I think the Raptors come out hot in Game 3 and make this an interesting series. Take the points. Since 2005, teams down 0-2 in a series and returning home for Game 3 have covered roughly two-thirds of the time. So historically this is a profitable spot to back the Raptors, who are better than what they’ve shown in the first two games vs. the 76ers. In both games at Philly, things somewhat unraveled in the second quarter, leaving the Raptors to face large halftime deficits. Don’t see that happening at home where the team sees its scoring rise and number of points per game allowed go down (compared to the road). Toronto won seven of its final eight regular season home games, the lone loss coming by five to top seed Miami. The Sixers had a surprisingly good road record in the regular season (27-14 SU), but only outscored opponents by about two points per game. As an away favorite, they are 11-12-1 ATS. In the first two games, the Sixers lived at the free throw line, getting 64 attempts and making 55. On the road, the refs are unlikely to be quite so generous. Over the course of the year, the team averaged 20 made FTs per game. So I expect a decrease in production from the charity stripe in Game 3. Perhaps most pertinent of all is the fact the Raptors are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS this season off three consecutive losses (they lost reg season finale). 9* Toronto |
|||||||
04-16-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors -6 | Top | 107-123 | Win | 100 | 28 h 4 m | Show |
10* Golden State (8:35 ET): The Warriors won their last five regular season games, all without Steph Curry, and now the former league MVP is expected back for Game 1 of this best of seven series vs. Denver. Relative to some of the other first round series, the Warriors aren’t that large of a favorite to advance here, but I see them doing so without much issue. At full strength, the Dubs are clearly a Top 5 team in the NBA and I see them rolling in Game 1 Saturday night over a Denver team that I just don’t believe in, even though they have reigning league MVP Nikola Jokic among their ranks. Lay the points. Curry (foot) is officially listed as probable. Note that I’m rolling with Golden State regardless. If Curry doesn’t play, then the opportunity to get a better number will be there. But barring something unforeseen, it appears he WILL play. “We expect him to play,” said Warriors’ HC Steve Kerr. The team won its last five games by an average of 13.2 PPG and its outscoring foes by nearly 10 PPG at home this season. So home court advantage for this series certainly seems significant, even though the Nuggets had a better win percentage on the road. Also key is that the Warriors finished the regular season #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. That will serve them well in the playoffs. While the Warriors’ core of Curry-Thompson-Green SHOULD be together on the floor for Game 1, Denver will continue to be without Michael Porter Jr and Jamal Murray. While Jokic carried the team with those two out, doing so in a series against Golden State seems a lot more problematic. Yes, the Nuggets did win three of the four regular season matchups. But Golden State won the last one, led by Curry’s 34 points. Denver is just nowhere as good defensively (18th in efficiency) and they are 1-4 ATS L5 games as a playoff underdog. 10* Golden State |
|||||||
04-13-22 | Spurs +5.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 103-113 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 47 m | Show |
10* San Antonio (9:30 ET): The winner of this game will move on to face the LOSER of Clippers-T’wolves (played on Tuesday) to determine who is the #8 seed (and face Phoenix in the first round) for the Western Conference playoffs. Despite finishing with their second worst win percentage EVER under HC Gregg Popovich, the Spurs should have finished with a far better record. Based on their point differential, they should have a winning record, not be 14 games below .500. Only Boston and Utah underperformed their Pythagorean win total more. I’m on the Spurs Weds to at least cover. Honestly, I expect them to win here. The Spurs won and covered three of the four regular season matchups with the Pelicans. Significant is that they were 2-1 SU/ATS in the three matchups after NO acquired CJ McCollum. The Pelicans were definitely a better team after the All-Star Break, but they have the worst expected win percentage of any team still playing. They are also a bottom five team in three-point shooting. Both Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas remain on the injury report (as questionable) for Weds. While I expect one or both to play, those would be massive losses for a game of this magnitude. The Spurs should enter this game relatively healthy. Leading scorer Dejounte Murray is the first player in NBA HISTORY to average 20-9-8 (points-rebounds-assists) over the course of an entire season. The Spurs are 19-12 ATS as road underdogs, the third best record in that situation in the league. They also have the best money line record as road dogs, having posted 12 outright wins. The Spurs’ losing record on the road (straight up) is highly misleading as they scored more than they allowed in those games. They are the better team in this matchup, so I’m definitely taking the points. 10* San Antonio |
|||||||
04-12-22 | Clippers v. Wolves -2.5 | Top | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 36 h 9 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (9:30 ET): The Timberwolves did not finish the regular season particularly strong (3-4 SU/1-6 ATS L7) but that’s not at all indicative of how they played most of the way. This team’s statistical profile is much more “on par” with the likes of Dallas and Denver than it is with the rest of the “play-in” teams. Case in point, the T’wolves had a better point differential and net efficiency rating compared to the sixth placed Nuggets. Getting this game at home is huge for a young team and I expect them to advance by defeating the Clippers Tuesday. Conversely, the Clippers did finish the regular season quite well, winning their final five games by an average of more than 25 PPG. While that’s obviously quite impressive, consider four of the wins were at home, the last three all coming against non-contending (Sacramento, OKC) or disinterested (Phoenix) teams. The return of Paul George obviously makes this a stronger team, but it’s hard to look past the fact that even with the strong finish, LA was downright mediocre this year. They are 2-8 ATS in their L10 games against teams that are .500 or better. Of the eight teams (East & West) involved in the play-in tournament, I’ve got Minnesota rated as the best. They were 1-3 SU/ATS head to head vs. LA in the regular season, but the three losses were all before Thanksgiving and that’s a long time ago. They won in LA 122-104 on January 3rd. Since the New Year, the T’wolves are 30-16 SU and they have the fifth best SU record in the league since the All-Star Break. It would be a shame if this team didn’t make the playoffs proper. They are 25-18-1 ATS when favored, so whether or not D’Angelo Russell plays, I’m laying the short number. 10* Minnesota |
|||||||
04-10-22 | Thunder +10 v. Clippers | Top | 88-138 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (9:40 ET): The Clippers seem to be on a bit of a roll as they head towards the play-in tournament. They’ve won four straight, the latest coming yesterday when they defeated Sacramento 117-98 as a 12-point favorite. I cashed the Under in that game, a play which was never really in doubt. What is in doubt for today, however, is the Clips’ motivation. This is the second game of a back to back, plus they know they are heading to Minnesota Tuesday for their shot to make the playoffs. I do not think the home team will be in the mindset to win their regular season finale by double digits. Meanwhile, I know that the Thunder have NOTHING to play for here, but I also think that makes them a somewhat “dangerous” dog in this spot. As was expected, it was another long season in OKC as the Thunder will finish second to last in the Western Conference, ahead of only Houston. They’ve been blown out in back to back games, but look for there to be a sense of pride here in avoiding that fate a third straight time. There are a good number of Thunder players unavailable, but it’s not like the Clippers are going all out Sunday. In three of the last four games, the Clippers have made 20+ three pointers. They were 21 of 43 from behind the arc yesterday. I just can’t see the shots continuing to fall at that high of a percentage, even in a game where defensive intensity may not be at its highest. I am anticipating a disinterested favorite in this one, and laying such a big number makes them a prime fade opportunity. Especially with this being the second night of a back to back. The Clips are just 5-8 SU this season in the 2nd night of a B2B. They may want to win (to finish the reg season above .500), but not by double digits. 10* Oklahoma City |
|||||||
04-07-22 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -2.5 | Top | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 22 h 48 m | Show |
10* Denver (9:10 ET): This is a critical game for the Nuggets, who need one win in their last two games to avoid falling into the play-in round. On Tuesday, they blew their first chance at clinching with a horrendous effort here at home, losing 116-97 to short-handed San Antonio, a game where the Nuggets closed as nine-point favorites! In addition to trying to avoid the play-in round, Denver can still move up to fifth in the West. That would be advantageous as it’s likely Golden State will finish third and the Nuggets would like to avoid them seeing as Steph Curry is expected back for the start of the playoffs. Not only did Denver shoot itself in the foot Tuesday night, their task of moving up the standings was made more difficult when both Dallas and Utah (the two teams in front of them) both won. The Nuggets can no longer earn home court advantage in the first round, but like I said earlier they can pass Utah and move into fifth. The current gap between the Jazz and Nuggets is one game. I see Denver being tremendously motivated to win on Thursday; not just for playoff seeding purposes, but they are also 0-3 this season vs. Memphis, so there’s some revenge in the Rocky Mountain air tonight. The Grizzlies team that takes the floor this evening won’t really resemble the one that’s previously beaten the Nuggets three teams. Already locked into the 2-seed in the West, the Grizzlies are letting several injured players rest, most notably Ja Morant. The Grizz have a shockingly good SU record w/o Morant so far, but Brooks, Tillie and Terry are also all out and the team could not overcome all the absences Tuesday (when we faded them) in an OT loss at Utah. I don’t see Memphis’ intensity matching Denver’s tonight. Despite being 0-3 SU vs. the Grizz in 2021-22, the Nuggets led at the half in all three games. 10* Denver |
|||||||
04-05-22 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -5.5 | Top | 115-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
8* Utah (9:10 ET): This is a huge game for the Jazz, who have fallen to sixth in the Western Conference despite having the league’s fourth best point differential. They have lost six of their last seven games, also going 1-6 ATS (0-7 ATS for some, depending on the result of the game against the Lakers). An inability to hold big leads has cost Utah dearly this season as Sunday marked the 15th time they had a double digit lead and lost. That was to a Steph Curry-less Warriors team and they were up by as many as 21 before losing 111-107. I am expecting a big bounce back performance from the Jazz, at home, here tonight. The last time Utah was off a stunning loss like what happened Sunday, I took them the next time out and they covered for me. That was against the Lakers as I had the Jazz -12 and they won 122-109. Here, the line is a lot shorter. While that’s for good reason (Memphis is very good), the opponent has nothing to play for on Tuesday. The Grizzlies are already locked into the second seed for the playoffs and will also be playing short-handed. Not only is Ja Morant out, but five other players are listed as questionable on the injury report, including Tillie, Bane, Jackson, Adams and Jones. Having to worry about 7th place Minnesota (1.5 games back) will have the Jazz supremely motivated for this one. It would be almost incomprehensible for the Jazz to fall into the play-in tournament. I still have them rated as a top five team in the league. I think their goal would be to avoid the Warriors (who are currently third) in the first round, so finishing fifth would have its benefits. I know Memphis has won seven straight and 10 of 11, but Utah will be the more motivated team on Tuesday, especially after blowing that big lead Sunday, so I am laying the points. The Jazz outscore teams by nearly 10 PPG at home this season. 8* Utah |
|||||||
04-04-22 | North Carolina v. Kansas -4 | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 28 m | Show |
10* Kansas (9:20 ET): Ok. As previously noted, only one of the previous 20 NCAAB National Champions (2014 UConn) didn’t rank in the top 25 in BOTH offensive and defensive efficiency in the KenPom ratings. The Jayhawks are the team that fits the bill here in 2022 as they are sixth in offensive efficiency and 17th in defensive efficiency. So if the trend holds, then Bill Self will bring another title to Lawrence. North Carolina has been a tremendous story, ending Coach K’s run on Saturday, but they were an 8-seed coming into this Tournament and 39th in defensive efficiency. I’m laying the points Monday night. Though their lead was cut to six in the second half, I never sensed Kansas was in any real danger Saturday night against Villanova. They raced out to a 10-0 lead to start the game and were up 38-19 before halftime. While ‘Nova was without Justin Moore, beating them wire to wire is a real feather in the cap for the Jayhawks, who have been incredible defensively in this tournament, holding all five opponents below 40% shooting. Only Villanova shot better than 36% from the floor. I mentioned earlier that KU got to face Villanova without Justin Moore. Here they’ll get UNC with a hobbled Armando Bacot. Bacot is the Tar Heels’ leading scorer and rebounder. He’s third in the country in rebounding. Hubert Davis doesn’t have a lot of depth down low, so an injured Bacot is certainly ill-timed. He’s going to play, but won’t be 100 percent and was clearly bothered by the injured ankle in the second half vs. Duke. It honestly shocks me that UNC has made it thus far and they easily could have lost three of their last four games. Kansas has been the better team all season and it would be downright stunning to me if they didn’t win here. 10* Kansas |
|||||||
04-03-22 | 76ers v. Cavs +4.5 | Top | 112-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (6:10 ET): Here we’ve got two Eastern Conference playoff teams in the second game of a back to back. Both won yesterday afternoon. Philadelphia blew out Charlotte 144-114. Cleveland was a 119-101 winner in New York. At this point, the 76ers are just trying to ensure they finish in the top four and have home court advantage for the first round. They are 2.5 games behind top seed Miami. The Cavaliers’ current standing is more perilous as they are facing the prospect of the play-in round. They’ve fallen to 7th place and are two games back of sixth place Chicago. I think the Cavs, at home, will want this one more. There’s obviously a huge benefit to finishing in the top six. Philly is going to be in the top four and that’s all that they care about. James Harden and Joel Embiid may both sit tonight. The Cavs will definitely be without Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, but that’s not as significant as Harden and Embiid. The real key for Cleveland is getting back to the kind of defense we saw from them in the first half of the season. At home, they are giving up just 103.2 PPG, third fewest in the league. I think we’ll see a strong effort at the defensive end here. The Cavs are 0-3 SU vs. the Sixers this year, including a pair of losses in March. But for this triple revenge spot, they are getting points at home and I like that. Philadelphia had lost three in a row before yesterday’s win. In the last two meetings, Cleveland led by eight at the half the first time and then only lost by four the second time. Fingers crossed that Harden and/or Embiid sits, but either way I like Cleveland getting points in this matchup, which is quite critical for them. They are top six in the East in net efficiency and point differential. 10* Cleveland |
|||||||
04-02-22 | Heat -2.5 v. Bulls | Top | 127-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
10* Miami (8:10 ET): Though I don’t think they deserve to, it looks as if Chicago is likely to finish in the Eastern Conference’s top six and thus avoid the play-in round. Of the top six, the Bulls easily have the worst YTD point differential and net efficiency. In fact, they are behind 7th place Cleveland as well as Brooklyn and Atlanta in both regards. Though the Bulls did manage to come from behind and beat the Clippers in OT on Thursday, their ATS record since the All-Star remains a poor 5-12 ATS. It’s not just the underlying metrics that make me skeptical of this Bulls team. They have also been PUTRID against the league’s best teams. They are 1-19 SU in their L20 games against teams with the top nine records in the league. That includes 0-3 vs. the Heat, who they host here. The last four times that Chicago has faced a team with a win percentage of .600 or better, they have lost by at least 15 points. Don’t look for tonight to go any different as the last two meetings with the Heat have been decided by a total of 29 points. After going cold for a bit, Miami posted B2B wins to end March and thus continues to lead the East with a 49-28 SU record. They are now one game up on the Bucks, who got crushed last night. But two other teams (Celtics, Sixers) are within 2.5 games as well. So the Heat can’t afford to take any nights off here. They are off a huge win in Boston on Thursday as four of the five starters scored 14 or more points. The Heat also held the Celtics to 15 points in the fourth quarter. With that win, they are now 8-1-1 ATS L10 road games. Lay the points. 10* Miami |
|||||||
04-01-22 | Wolves +3 v. Nuggets | Top | 136-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (9:10 ET): I’ve got the T’wolves rated as the better team here, despite recent form. Since the All-Star Break, they had posted the NBA’s second best net efficiency rating. That was until dropping four of their last five games, which seemingly leaves them resigned to the 7-seed and play-in round in the Western Conference. Right now, Minnesota faces a three-game deficit with five to play. The team they are chasing (Denver) is the opponent tonight and a win here would not only close the gap, but ensures Minny holds the tiebreaker. They should be favored in the last four games, so look for a top-notch effort on Friday. The Nuggets have won their last three games, so not only are they thinking about holding onto the 6-seed, they’ve got the potential for home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs on their mind. They are only two games back of third place, a tighter gap than what exists between them and the T’wolves, in what could be a wild finish. Note however that Denver’s three-game win streak has come at the expense of two bad teams (OKC, Indiana) and Charlotte. All three wins were by seven points or less, although they did have a huge early lead on Indiana Wednesday. But they shot 62.5% in that game, a number they won’t come close to matching here. Minnesota also had a big 1H lead on Weds, but could not hold it and ended up losing in a blowout to Toronto. That game saw a massive 40-point swing. Karl-Anthony Towns scored only 16 points on just 13 field goal attempts, so I think it’s more than reasonable to expect a bounce back performance from the T’wolves’ leading scorer tonight. Something worth noting is that the team averages more PPG on the road (117.5) than they do at home (112.9). They are actually the league’s highest scoring road team! Take the points. 10* Minnesota |
|||||||
03-31-22 | Lakers v. Jazz -12.5 | Top | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
8* Utah (10:00 ET): The Jazz have somehow fallen down into sixth place in the Western Conference, despite possessing the fourth best YTD point differential in the entire NBA. They are, not coincidentally, in the top four of my own personal power rankings (3rd). However, a win would be nice after a disastrous road trip that saw them go 1-5 SU/ATS overall and lose the last five games. Without question, the most demoralizing defeat of the bunch occurred Tuesday when they blew a 25-point lead and lost 121-115 to the Clippers. I believe the Jazz will be “out for blood” in their return home Thursday against the Lakers. The Lakers are in trouble. LeBron James and Anthony Davis both remain out and the team holds a tenuous half game lead over San Antonio for the final spot in the play-in round. I don’t think the Lakers are getting in. They have a worse statistical profile than the Spurs and have just FOUR wins since the All-Star Break. Five of their last six opponents have shot at least 50% from the field and they just gave up 128 points to Dallas on Tuesday. Whereas I think Utah is much better than its won-loss record, the Lakers are worse than their WL record, a damning statement considering they are already 13 games below .500. If you can believe this, the Lakers are going for their second season sweep of the Jazz in the last 37 years. But the previous two wins were both at home. The Lakers’ road record is 11-26 SU and they are without their two superstars right now. I know this is a big number to lay with a team on a five-game losing streak, but Utah should be supremely motivated to handle its business here and is #2 in points per game at home in the league (116.3). Again, they were up 25 on the Clippers the other night. The Lakers just lost by 18. This should be a massive beatdown. 8* Utah |
|||||||
03-31-22 | Bucks v. Nets -1.5 | Top | 120-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:30 ET): It promises to be a VERY interesting finish at the top of the Eastern Conference. Four teams are separated by two games and the defending NBA Champs are right in the mix, one game out of the top spot. I had Milwaukee Tuesday night in Philadelphia as they escaped with a 118-116 win. This team has now won 11 of its last 14, but all three losses have been on the road and four times in the last six games they’ve given up at least 116 points. This time, I’m going to fade the Bucks on the road as they head to Brooklyn to face a Nets team that’s also battling for playoff position. Brooklyn is now 8-3 SU its last 11 games after running out to a 130-123 win over Detroit on Tuesday. They didn’t cover the spread, which was 14 points, dropping to 8-28 ATS at home this season. But that record is a little misleading in that - until recently - Kyrie Irving was ineligible to play here. But Irving is “in the clear” now. It was Kevin Durant leading the way with 41 points on Tuesday. This is a team that has no issue scoring and will be a very dangerous first round matchup, presuming they make it out of the play-in round. Currently, the Nets are 8th and they want to at least maintain that position so they would only need to win once in the play-in round to make the playoffs proper. The Nets won the last meeting, 126-123 in Milwaukee, and that was without Durant. Despite the woeful ATS record at home (it’s a league-worst), I really like the Nets in this spot as I actually think they’re being drastically undervalued on their own floor. Milwaukee is playing its third straight road game while this will be the third straight game at home for Brooklyn. The Bucks are just 4-9 - straight up and against the spread - as underdogs this season. I think they are far more desperate to finish in the top eight than Milwaukee is to finish first. 10* Brooklyn |
|||||||
03-29-22 | Bucks +1.5 v. 76ers | Top | 118-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (7:10 ET): The Bucks and Sixers are embroiled in what is a fascinating four-team race for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. Although I played against Boston last night, I’ve got the Celtics rated as the best of the bunch, followed by the Heat. But then comes the Bucks, the reigning NBA Champs, who will be looking to bounce back from an embarrassing 127-102 loss to a Memphis team that was without Ja Morant. Previously, the Bucks had won 10 of 12. I’ve got them rated as the better team than the Sixers, so this short line is not a surprise and I’ll play accordingly. Philadelphia has the same 46-28 SU record as Milwaukee, but with an inferior YTD point differential. The Sixers’ point differential is actually worse than seventh place Cleveland, but they are obviously a different team now with James Harden in the mix. Still, they did just lose by 10 at Phoenix on Sunday with Harden shooting 2 of 11 and finishing with only 14 points. I’ll concede the fact that the Sixers have yet to lose B2B games since acquiring Harden, but they’ve also generally faced weak/undermanned opponents when previously in this situation. For what it’s worth, the Sixers are 0-7 ATS on Tuesdays this season. Milwaukee has not been healthy most of this season, but they are close to 100 percent right now, which should be concerning for the rest of the Eastern Conference. Like the Sixers, the Bucks have not lost B2B games since February. They are 8-1 ATS in Tuesday games this season. Off a loss, the Bucks have been better (in terms of scoring differential) than when off a win. When off a double digit loss, the team’s ATS record is 8-4 in 2021-22. I simply believe the road team to be better in this matchup and am banking on them finishing higher in the standings. Therefore, taking the points is a no-brainer (obviously, given the line, I think the Bucks will win SU). 8* Milwaukee |
|||||||
03-29-22 | Bulls v. Wizards +4 | Top | 107-94 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:10 ET): While there’s a fascinating four-team race for the top spot in the Eastern Conference, also keep an eye on the “next tier” where three teams (Chicago, Toronto, Cleveland) are battling to avoid the play-in round. One of the three will be “odd team out” and finish seventh. As of now, that “odd team out” is Cleveland, though they won last night and are just a game behind the other two. Toronto was also a winner on Monday. Chicago was a loser, blowing a double digit lead and going down 109-104 at the hands of the Knicks. The Bulls are the team I believe will finish as “odd team out.” Chicago is lower than Toronto and Cleveland in my power rankings and has the worst YTD point differential of the three. The Bulls, who overachieved in the first half of the season, have only outscored opponents by 0.4 PPG. That gives them an “expected” won-loss record of 38-37 SU. With five more wins than their “expected” win total, the Bulls are actually the biggest overachiever in the league in that regard. Defensively, they’ve fallen off a cliff since the All-Star Break, and the result is a 4-11 SU record in their L15 games. On the second night of a back to back, I can’t see how this team is favored on the road. Washington has won B2B games for the first time in forever. They shot a season-best 57.1% from three-point range in the 123-115 victory over Golden State on Sunday. While I do not think the Wizards will be able to match that lofty percentage here, they should still shoot well against a Bulls team that is giving up 112.5 PPG on the road this season. The Wiz are still technically alive for the playoffs, so don’t expect them to roll over. They’ve won two in a row as dogs and now have two more winnable home games on the docket (host Orlando tomorrow). Take the points. 10* Washington |
|||||||
03-28-22 | Thunder v. Blazers +2.5 | Top | 134-131 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
8* Portland (10:10 ET): The Blazers may officially be at “rock-bottom” right now as they are coming off back to back losses, both at home, to Houston. The team has won just twice since the All-Star Break (in 15 tries), is without Damian Lillard for the rest of the season, and is now bottom five in my power ratings. But something will have to give here as Portland hosts an Oklahoma City team that has just three wins since the Break and two of them came before March 3rd. The Thunder have lost 11 of their last 12. Now OKC has been covering the spread pretty regularly. They come into tonight on a six-game ATS win streak. However, they were underdogs in all six of those contests. Tonight will be just the THIRD time all season that the Thunder are favored to win and the FIRST on the road. This is a team that is 11-26 SU away from home and scoring just 102.5 PPG. The Thunder are 30th (i.e. dead last) in the league in scoring. GETTING points to go against them on the road is a gift, no matter who the opponent may be. Earlier I mentioned that the Blazers don’t have Lillard. Well, OKC has been without its top scorer, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, for three of the past four games and there is talk the team may “shut him down” for the remainder of the regular season. The Thunder had just nine players available on Saturday when they lost 113-107 in Denver. The only win for the Thunder in the last three weeks came at home against an Orlando team that is tied for the worst record in the league. At home, Portland plays with pride tonight. 8* Portland |
|||||||
03-28-22 | Celtics v. Raptors -3.5 | Top | 112-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
10* Toronto (7:40 ET): By virtue of picking up their sixth consecutive win last night, 134-112 over Minnesota, Boston is now in first place in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics have won 10 of 11 overall and are #2 overall (behind the Suns) in my personal power rankings. But they probably wish they had Monday off as they come into this game at Toronto with the potential of being extremely short-handed. Al Horford and Robert Williams are already listed as out while both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown (65 combined points Sunday) are dealing with sore knees. If Boston is the hottest team in the East, then Toronto is not far behind. The Raptors have won 8 of their last 10 games to climb into the top six. With six of their final eight regular season games in Canada, they’ve got an excellent shot at avoiding the play-in round. The team is off one of its highest scoring efforts of the season on Saturday as they destroyed Indiana by a score of 131-91. They were up 28 in the first half and never looked back. Though Boston is trying to hold on to the top spot, they are in a tougher spot (back to back) and this one might mean more to the Raptors, who are in a tight three-way race to avoid the play-in round. Toronto also has double revenge after losing the last two meetings to the Celtics. The teams have not met since November. Another key edge for the home team is that they will be at full strength. Everything sets up beautifully for the Raptors. 10* Toronto |
|||||||
03-27-22 | Hornets +7 v. Nets | Top | 119-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:40 ET): Brooklyn treated me to a win last night as they routed Miami, 110-95, on the road. But I wouldn’t trust the Nets laying this many points in the second half of a back to back, even though Kyrie Irving (unvaccinated) is now eligible to play home games. Credit the Nets for winning seven of their last nine games, but this is a team still destined for the play-in round, same as Sunday’s opponent, who has won six of its last seven games. This seems like a great spot to take the points. The Hornets just beat Utah on Friday night, 107-101 as a four-point underdog. That was a game where I cashed the Under. It capped a solid homestand for Charlotte, but the team has also won its last three road games - by an average of more than 20 PPG! The Hornets continued to be underrated by oddsmakers and overlooked by the public. But they are one of the league’s top five scoring teams and when you average 114.7 PPG, you’ll cover more often than not, especially as an underdog. On the road, Charlotte’s scoring average actually goes up to 116.6! Brooklyn has been a disaster at home this season, going 8-26 ATS. Most will attribute that to not having Irving, but overall the Nets are just 15-30 ATS when favored, home or road. They are 4-12 ATS when off a double digit win and 3-8 ATS in the second night of a back to back (2-10 straight up). So, no matter what way you look at it, this is a bad spot for the home favorite. They had two days off prior to last night’s game, after previously losing to Ja Morant-less Grizzlies. 10* Charlotte |
|||||||
03-26-22 | Nets -3.5 v. Heat | Top | 110-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
8* Brooklyn (8:10 ET): The way things stand now in the Eastern Conference, this could be a potential first round playoff series and I think that would be a nightmare matchup for the top-seeded Heat. Brooklyn has obviously underperformed in 2021-22 and just lost to Memphis, who didn’t have Ja Morant available. But the Nets had won six of seven before that, the lone loss coming by two points at home to Dallas on a buzzer-beater (a game the Nets led by double digits going into the 4Q. Kyrie Irving has now been cleared to play in ALL games (NYC has lifted vaccination requirements), so look out for the Nets. Irving was always going to be able to play tonight regardless and the Nets will definitely be looking for a similar performance to Thursday when he scored a team-high 43 points. Kevin Durant, who is averaging 29.7 points, 7.3 rebounds and 6.1 assists this year, added 35 in the loss to Memphis. The problem was the Nets’ bench combined to go just 2 for 11 from the field and scored only 11 points. For tonight, it’s looking like Goran Dragic and Seth Curry will be in the lineup, a big boost. Of course, it’s hard to win in the NBA when you give up 132 points, which is what Brooklyn did against Memphis. I expect vast improvement at that end of the floor here vs. Miami, who is in a terrible spot after blowing a 17-point 4Q lead last night and losing to the Knicks 111-103. That was the Heat’s third straight loss and they are also 0-6 ATS L6 games. A bad time to go cold on South Beach and second-leading scorer Tyler Herro remains out. Brooklyn is 0-3 SU vs. Miami this year, so this is a huge revenge spot that they’ll be up for. 8* Brooklyn |
|||||||
03-25-22 | Iowa State +2.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 56-70 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 53 m | Show |
9* Iowa State (9:59 ET): Everyone seems to really love Miami in this unlikely Sweet 16 matchup, which pits the 10 and 11 seeds of the Midwest Region against one another. I’m not sure why? The gap in defensive efficiency, a very important metric this time of year, is the largest of any Sweet 16 matchup. Iowa State ranks fifth in the country in that regard while Miami is 124th, easily the worst of any of the remaining teams and it’s not particularly close. (Purdue is next lowest at 87th). I actually think that the WRONG TEAM IS FAVORED in this contest and thus I’m grabbing the points. Here’s something noteworthy. Iowa State has not lost a single non-conference game all season! The Cyclones are 15-0 when faced with a team outside the Big 12. I’ve been somewhat skeptical as my power rankings see a team that went 2-22 SU (0-18 in Big 12 play!) last year. But ISU certainly proved me wrong with their win over Wisconsin in Round 2. The bottom line is that the ‘Clones have allowed just 103 points in two games in this tournament with opponents hitting just 6 of 41 (14.6%!) from three-point range. You could argue that’s not sustainable, but so far Miami is just 4 of 29 (13.7%!) from three-point range in the tournament. So look for Iowa State’s defense to win out here. At the same time, I expect their offensive numbers to improve against a Miami team that is suspect defensively. The Hurricanes were fortunate to get out to a double digit lead in the 1H vs. USC in Round 1 as they held on for a two-point win. Then, they shockingly exploded in the 2H against Auburn in Round 2. Auburn shot very poorly in that game (just 30%) and while Iowa State certainly isn’t going to go for 80 points here, they will shoot better than Auburn did. I am just a big “seller” on this Miami team, who I think is the weakest team (besides St. Peter’s) left in the field. 9* Iowa State |
|||||||
03-25-22 | North Carolina v. UCLA -2.5 | Top | 73-66 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 3 m | Show |
10* UCLA (9:39 ET): Coming off an impressive upset of top-seeded Baylor in Round 2, North Carolina now seems to be accumulating quite the bandwagon as they head to the Sweet 16. But it’s hard for me to shake the fact that this Tar Heels team ended up as the three seed in a weak ACC this year. They were beaten by Virginia Tech in the Conference Tournament, then blew all of a 25-point lead (in 10 minutes!) against Baylor, needing OT to pull that upset off. The hot shooting we’ve seen from UNC these first two rounds is NOT likely to persist and I certainly don’t believe UCLA is going to shoot as poorly as Baylor did on Saturday. Meanwhile, UCLA quietly turned in a dominant effort in Round 2, ousting St. Mary’s 72-56. That followed a somewhat “sleepy” effort against Akron in the first round (where the Bruins won by just four points). But they have held B2B opponents below 60 points. I look at this East Region and see a pretty clear path to the Final Four for UCLA, who is one of just four teams left that ranks in the Top 25 in BOTH offensive and defensive efficiency. Why is that important? Because all but one of the last 20 National Champions (2014 UConn) have been Top 25 teams in both categories. I think the Bruins are being drastically undervalued for this Sweet 16 matchup. Now Jaime Jaquez Jr, who is UCLA’s leading rebounder and second leading scorer, is questionable due to an ankle injury suffered last game. And North Carolina’s near choke-job vs. Baylor certainly coincided with the ejection of Brady Manek, who WILL play Friday. But I am steadfast in my assessment of the two teams. UCLA has been better all season and should be favored by more. Don’t be surprised if it’s the defense that gets it done here for the Bruins, who are 7-1 ATS their L8 NCAA Tournament games. 10* UCLA |
|||||||
03-23-22 | Jazz +6 v. Celtics | Top | 97-125 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
8* Utah (7:40 ET): I really respect Boston, but this is too many points to lay to the Jazz, who are looking to bounce back from a loss. Utah has been one of the top teams in the league all season. In fact, I’ve got them second in the power rankings, one spot ahead of the Celtics. So this line doesn’t make much sense to me. Boston is off a 4-0 road trip - where every win came by at least nine points - but it wouldn’t shock me to see them a little “gassed” in their return to Beantown. Meanwhile, with just a one game lead over 5th place Dallas in the race for homecourt advantage, there’s a great sense of urgency for the road team tonight. Take the points. Utah lost in Brooklyn Monday night, 114-106, falling victim to a 37-point performance from Kevin Durant. The Jazz had previously won three straight and the good news is they perform well off a loss. The last time this team lost consecutive games was late January. Since then, they’ve followed their last five SU defeats with a win, including a 15-point victory over Chicago the last time they were in this situation. Something to consider is that while Boston leads the league in defensive efficiency, Utah leads the league in offensive efficiency. They are tough to stop and getting this many points with a team that averages 113.9 PPG is rare. The Celtics actually just gave up 123 to Oklahoma City (who is one of the lowest scoring teams in the league) the other night. Now that number feels like a bit of an aberration, but consider Utah put up 137 when these teams last met, back in December (and there was no overtime). Boston ended up scoring 132 against the Thunder Monday night, but they are just 1-5 ATS this season after scoring 130+ in the previous game. The Jazz have won the last four head to head meetings and a 4-0 ATS their last four trips here to Boston. 8* Utah |
|||||||
03-21-22 | Wolves v. Mavs -3 | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 11 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:40 ET): The Timberwolves sure are “humming” right now. They’re up to sixth in the Western Conference, and have fifth place Dallas in their sights, after winning (and covering) 10 of their last 11 games. Last time out, the T’wolves beat Milwaukee 138-119 as a 3.5-point favorite. That line swung dramatically after it was announced Giannis Antetokounmpo would not be playing for the Bucks. Minnesota took full advantage of the absence, shooting the lights out, including 22 of 47 from three-point range. But I don’t think they’ll be as fortunate tonight when they face the team they are chasing for fifth. Dallas returns home tonight after a five-game road trip that started well and ended poorly. The Mavericks won the first three games of that five-game trip, including victories over Boston and Brooklyn. But then they lost at Philadelphia and Charlotte on Friday & Saturday. Perhaps they “ran out of gas,” but the bottom line is they can’t afford many more stumbles with just a 1.5 game lead over the T’wolves and Nuggets. The last thing the Mavs want is to “fall into” the play-in round. It’s been a LONG time since Dallas has lost three in a row (Dec 3-7), so I expect a bounce back tonight at home. The Mavs have a big edge defensively in this matchup. They allow just 102.2 PPG at home while the T’wolves are allowing 117.1 on the road. Remember that I faded the T’wolves, successfully, in their lone loss in the L11 games, which was at Orlando. Because of the strong numbers at the defensive end, Dallas is 23-12 SU at home this season. Look for Luka Doncic, who is averaging 28.1 points, 9.2 rebounds and 8.5 assists, to get more “help” here than he did in the last game. Role players tend to produce more at home. 10* Dallas |
|||||||
03-20-22 | Iowa State v. Wisconsin -4.5 | Top | 54-49 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
10* Wisconsin (6:10 ET): The Badgers have thrived in close games this season, so it wasn’t much of a surprise to see them “turn it on” late against 14-seed Colgate Friday night. Trailing most of the game, Wisconsin went on a 10-0 run to take the lead for good and held the Raiders scoreless for over seven minutes. The favorite ended up not covering (won 67-60, were -7.5), but I’m going to lay the points here as I think the Badgers got a favorable second round draw with an Iowa State team that I’ve not been sold on all season. Lay the points. Iowa State shot just 35.7% in the first round, but it was enough to pull the upset over LSU, 59-54 as 3.5-point dogs. Remember that the Tigers had just fired their HC, the day before Selection Sunday. So the Cyclones really got lucky with the draw. The turnaround in Ames has been pretty remarkable this season, considering that last year the Cyclones finished 2-22 SU overall and didn’t win a single Big 12 game! They started 2021-22 by winning their first 12 games, but are only 9-12 SU since (including Friday’s win) and had dropped three in a row coming into the NCAA Tournament. Most concerning is the lack of offense; ISU has been held below 60 pts in three of its last four games. Wisconsin commits the fewest number of turnovers per game (8.5) in the nation and gave it away only five times against Colgate. So this team does not beat itself. Like Iowa State, the Badgers have been a surprise team this season (were picked to finish 10th in the Big Ten), but that’s all water in the bridge. I know I’ve pointed to an unsustainable record in close games, but this is a game Wisconsin should win big. I just don’t think ISU is very good. Over the last four games, the Cyclones were held to 36 points by OK State and 41 by Tex Tech! Wisconsin will certainly make more threes than LSU did (only four) here. 10* Wisconsin |
|||||||
03-19-22 | Pistons +7 v. Cavs | Top | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
analysis soon |
|||||||
03-18-22 | Bulls +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 102-129 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
8* Chicago (10:10 ET): The two surprise teams in the East, Chicago and Cleveland, have both started to fall off a bit in the second half of the season. In the case of the Bulls, they’ve won just two of their last nine games, going 1-8 ATS, and are now down to 5th place in the Conference. (Remember that they were once in 1st). With seventh place Toronto making a move, the Bulls need to get things turned around in a hurry or they risk falling into the “play-in round” for the playoffs. Despite recent form, I’m going to take the points here as the road team comes in desperate and motivated. Shortly after the All-Star Break, Phoenix dropped B2B games (to New Orleans and Utah), but they’ve since battled back to win seven of their last nine, despite not having PG Chris Paul. The last three games have all been wins and covers for the Suns, one over the Pelicans in a revenge spot. But the other two wins were against the Lakers and Rockets, the former a sinking ship and the latter the worst team in the Western Conference. At 56-14 on the year (best record in the NBA), the Suns have nothing to worry about, but I could see them coming out flat here. The Bulls have certainly seen their defensive numbers take a hit over the last month or so, but Alex Caruso (one of their top defenders) is now back and that should help. Losing at Utah on Wednesday night really shouldn’t be taken as a big deal. Now losing Monday in Sacramento was bad. But I just think this Bulls team comes out ready to play on Friday. Right now feels like a “buy low” spot on a team that was once first in the Eastern Conference standings. 8* Chicago |
|||||||
03-18-22 | CS-Fullerton +18.5 v. Duke | Top | 61-78 | Win | 100 | 31 h 34 m | Show |
10* CS Fullerton (7:10 ET): Duke has been a complete mess defensively of late. Over the last four games, the Blue Devils have surrendered an average of 82.8 points per game and rank 224th in defensive efficiency. So I’ll gladly grab the big number here with Cal State Fullerton, who won the Big West Tournament to get here. The Titans have held their last five opponents to 39.9% shooting. Obviously, that’s against weaker competition than they’ll see here. But I still see the 15-seed staying inside the number. Duke comes into the Tournament on an 0-4 ATS losing skid. They dropped Coach K’s home finale, losing to rival North Carolina 94-81. Then it was two close wins in the ACC Tournament over Syracuse and Miami. They lost in the Finals, to Virginia Tech, 82-67 as a 5.5-point favorite. I would have expected the ATS losing skid to scare the public off here, but it has not and, in fact, the line has only gotten bigger. I think because of the name on the front of the jersey, this team is overvalued right now. The Blue Devils are young and inexperienced. An outright upset seems unlikely here, although we did see a 15-seed (St. Peter’s) win yesterday. But CS Fullerton has dropped only two games over the last month and those two losses were by a combined eight points. The Titans are a very solid 6-2 ATS as underdogs this season and should come in “loose” as they are essentially playing with “house money” here. Duke’s lack of defense down the stretch makes them a prime candidate to fade as a big favorite. 10* CS-Fullerton |
|||||||
03-18-22 | Virginia Tech v. Texas | Top | 73-81 | Win | 100 | 28 h 3 m | Show |
8* Texas (4:30 ET): I think we’re getting a GREAT discount on Texas here as this line looks like it might “jump the fence.” I assume the public infatuation has to do with Va Tech winning the ACC Tournament. Now I very much thought the Hokies were capable of making a run in that event, but mainly that was because the ACC was so “down” this season. And the Hokies only finished SEVENTH in that league. Conversely, Texas made an early exit in the Big 12 Tourney, losing in the quarterfinals to TCU. But the Longhorns are still sixth in the country in points allowed (59.6 per game) and have a big edge at that end of the floor. I understand that Texas comes into the NCAA Tournament on a three-game losing streak where they’ve not topped 63 in any game. But two of those defeats came to Baylor and Kansas (both 1-seeds) and they had an 18-point lead over TCU in the Big 12 Tourney. All but two of this team’s losses this season came to ranked foes. Va Tech is unranked. Teams are shooting just 41.2% against the Longhorns, so I just don’t see the Hokies hitting at the same rate they did against the weak defenses of the ACC. The Horns have had just one losing streak longer than three games in the L3 seasons. Let’s also not forget Va Tech was just 19-12 SU before winning four games in four days to clinch their spot here. One of those wins in came in overtime and required a buzzer beater. I did think - that like Texas - the Hokies were being underrated much of the year. But Texas was a preseason top five team. I think this is a classic case of “recency bias” as too many people are focused on Va Tech’s ACC Tourney run and not the big picture. Teams that are only in the field due to winning the automatic berth from their conference are good first round fades, in my opinion. 8* Texas |
|||||||
03-18-22 | Loyola-Chicago v. Ohio State | Top | 41-54 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
8* Loyola Chicago (12:15 ET): So, as many of you already know, I rely heavily on a team’s defensive efficiency rating this time of year. Well, in this matchup of Loyola Chicago and Ohio State, my side looks to have a major edge in that regard. Champions of the Missouri Valley, Loyola is #22 in the country in defensive efficiency. Ohio State is #130, easily the worst rating of anyone in the KenPom top 40. Look for the Ramblers to exploit this edge and move on to the Round of 32. Ohio State was upset LY in the first round of the tourney, as a 2-seed, losing 75-72 to Oral Roberts. That Buckeyes team was better than this edition, but still only rated 82nd in defensive efficiency. Now the problem seems to be even worse. Last year’s upset loss was also nothing new for Chris Holtmann. His teams are now just 11-17 SU all-time in Conference/NCAA Tournaments. That includes an early exit from this year’s Big 10 proceedings, 71-68 to Penn State as a 5.5-point favorite. Also, don’t discount the fact the Buckeyes had to play seven games from 2/19 to 3/6 as a result of postponements. Loyola ended up being the four seed for the MVC Tournament, but that was highly misleading as an OT loss to Northern Iowa on the final day of the regular season dropped them from the top spot and they fell victim to a tiebreaker. The Ramblers were always the best team in “the Valley” this season and showed it in the Conference Tourney, including a whipping of N Iowa 66-43. In its last five games that ended in regulation, Loyola has allowed no more than 58 points. While offensively, they don’t score a ton, the Ramblers do shoot 56% from two-point range, top 25 in the country. 8* Loyola Chicago |
|||||||
03-17-22 | San Francisco +1.5 v. Murray State | Top | 87-92 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 40 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (9:50 ET): I think the line is moving in the wrong direction here, for this 7 vs 10 matchup. Yes, I know Murray State is 30-2 SU and hasn’t lost since December 22nd to Auburn. But San Francisco is the better team from the better conference with a higher defensive efficiency rating. The Dons stayed undefeated into December and one-third (3 of 9) of their losses came to top-ranked Gonzaga. Other than Gonzaga, not a single team beat SF by more than five points this year! Five of their losses were by two points or less! So I’m taking full advantage of this line move and grabbing the points. My own power ratings are simply not as high on Murray State as some others. I’ve got the Racers just outside my Top 50. I know that they probably would have been an at-large team had they not won the OVC Tournament and got the automatic bid. But that was a fairly weak league, outside of Belmont and Morehead State, neither of whom were in my Top 85. Murray State also really benefited from the fact they shot 157 more free throws than their opponents this season and attempted 149 more field goals. If they’re not getting to the line and not getting those second chance opportunities, then they could be in real trouble. San Francisco has a strong backcourt and is also likely getting back big man Yauhen Massalski (13.5 points, 9.4 rebounds per game), which is a big boost. The Dons have not been in the NCAA Tournament since 1998, so they will be highly motivated here. Not that Murray State won’t be, but to me the Racers have the feel of being a bit “too trendy,” especially considering four of their last seven wins were by four points or fewer. Murray State lacks depth in the frontcourt and doesn’t shoot free throws well. San Francisco is outstanding at defending the three-point line, allowing opponents to hit less than 30% from deep. 8* San Francisco |
|||||||
03-17-22 | New Mexico State v. Connecticut -6.5 | Top | 70-63 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 25 m | Show |
10* UConn (6:50 ET): We all know the history of the 5-12 (seed) matchup. In 31 of the last 36 Tournaments, at least one 12-seed has won a first round game. But only one did so last year and that team (Oregon State) came from a P5 conference. I just don’t see it here with New Mexico State and, in fact, I believe 5-seed UConn should be an even larger favorite here. The Huskies have won seven of their past nine games and the two losses were by a combined five points. My own power ratings suggest this should be a double digit spread. So I’m laying the points. UConn is a team with tremendous length, one that grabs the second highest percentage of its own misses in the country. Only Kentucky had a higher offensive rebound percentage. When 6’9” Adama Sanogo is on the floor, the Huskies rebound 39% of their misses and also make 39% of their 3PA. Sanogo missed the team’s lone meeting with Big East Champ Providence this year. I don’t think NMSU has any ability to match up with him and UConn’s massive edge in size and length is going to be a big problem for the underdog in this one. New Mexico State is making its 10th NCAA Tournament appearance since 2007 under four different coaches. The problem is the Aggies have not won in the Big Dance since 1993. The WAC is a really weak league. Concerning for NMSU is their turnover rate (21%) as UConn is certainly better than most teams the Aggies have faced. I know NMSU hasn’t lost a game by more than four points since January, but again … the competition. They lost to a terrible Chicago State team. UConn is looking to end its own NCAA Tourney drought as their last win in the Big Dance came back in 2016 . Look for that to end here as the Huskies win BIG. 10* UConn |
|||||||
03-17-22 | Marquette +4 v. North Carolina | Top | 63-95 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
8* Marquette (4:30 ET): Once again, this is a matchup where I feel the public is “loading up” far too much on one side, given the respective seedings. Marquette did not have a particularly strong finish to its regular season, going 4-6 SU L10 and getting bounced from the Big East Tournament, 74-63 by Creighton. But I’m not all that impressed with North Carolina as the ACC was “down” significantly this season and the Tar Heels only finished third. They did go on a late season run, including a win over Duke in Coach K’s final home game. But that’s overvalued them a bit. They lost by 13 to Va Tech in the ACC Tourney. Marquette had some close losses down the stretch and thus their SU record could be a lot better. The Golden Eagles have a higher defensive efficiency rating than UNC, something I look at this time of year. In fact, the Tar Heels are giving up a whopping 77.4 PPG outside of Chapel Hill. That simply will not get it done in an NCAA Tournament game, especially when favored. Marquette had the Big East’s most efficient offense inside the three-point arc, shooting 53.1% on 2PA, and they were also 37% from three-point range. Bottom line: I look for Marquette to SCORE in this matchup. I know that Marquette HC Shaka Smart didn’t win a NCAA Tournament game at Texas and his Golden Eagles were picked to finish ninth in the preseason Big East poll. But they might be better than UNC at BOTH ends of the floor. Defensively, no team in the Big East was better at defending the three-point line. Opponents made just 31.8% from behind the arc against the Golden Eagles. North Carolina is a team that often loses when it’s not making its threes (2-7 SU against Quad 1 teams). Also, Marquette led the Big East in steal rate. Let’s not forget UNC lost at home to Pitt last month. Marquette swept Villanova this year and beat Providence once. 8* Marquette |
|||||||
03-17-22 | Memphis v. Boise State +3 | Top | 64-53 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 11 m | Show |
8* Boise State (1:45 ET): Memphis seems to be far too popular a choice here, given the seeding. I know the Tigers are a hot team, winners of 12 of their last 14, but they just got blown out in the AAC Title Game by Houston (71-53) and have to contend with a similarly hot Boise State squad. The Broncos, who will be supremely motivated by the fact the program has NEVER won a NCAA Tournament game (0-7 SU all-time), were regular season and conference tournament champions in the Mountain West. They’ve won 24 of their last 27 games and are an excellent team defensively. Take the points. With a Top 20 defensive efficiency rating, Boise State allows just 60.8 PPG. They held Colorado State (also a NCAA Tournament team) to 52 in the MWC Tourney Final. Offensively, though they didn’t really show it in that win over CSU, the Broncos are also very good. They’ve shot 50% or better in six of the last nine games. While Memphis has improved defensively throughout the season, the Tigers still are allowing 68.4 PPG. Boise State has lost only three games since the start of February and two of those were by just three points each. Memphis also has a major albatross and that is they turn the ball over way too much; nearly one-quarter of their possessions to be exact. Though they did beat Houston twice down the stretch, the Tigers’ “resurgence” mostly came against bad AAC teams that didn’t make the Tournament. Houston is better than any team from the MWC, but overall I’d say the Mountain West was stronger than the American this season. Boise State is 7-2 ATS as an underdog this year and I think the better team is getting points in this matchup. 8* Boise State |
|||||||
03-17-22 | Michigan -1 v. Colorado State | Top | 75-63 | Win | 100 | 24 h 42 m | Show |
8* Michigan (12:15 ET): So both of these teams enter the NCAA Tournament with “chips” on their respective shoulders. Colorado State felt like it was snubbed from LY’s Tourney, so the Rams left little doubt in the minds of the committee this year with a 25-5 regular season. But it’s telling that - despite being ranked #24 in the country and the higher seed - CSU is still an underdog to a Michigan team that is just 17-14 SU and barely got in the field. I think it’s the Wolverines who are not only better, but have more to prove in this Round of 64 matchup. I’m laying the points. Don’t be fooled by Michigan’s record vis a vis Colorado State’s. The Wolverines played a much more challenging schedule, one that saw them play 15 “Quadrant 1” teams. KenPom has their schedule rated as the fifth toughest in the country. They successfully navigated their HC Juwan Howard being suspended, going 3-2, and should have beaten Indiana in the Big 10 Tournament (were up 17). Michigan is a team that, despite its record, is still considered Top 25 by my own personal power ratings. Let’s not forget they were in the Elite 8 a year ago. Colorado State not only played a weaker schedule (84th), but I thought they were a bit lucky this year (4th in luck rating at KenPom). The Rams also favor a significant matchup disadvantage here, going against MIchigan’s Hunter Dickinson, one of the best big men in America. The Rams are 304th (in the country) in average height and allowed Mountain West teams to connect at a 51% clip on two-point attempts in conference play. That’s not good. Offensively, they only averaged 55.5 points in two MWC Tourney games. Lay the points. 8* Michigan |
|||||||
03-16-22 | 76ers -4 v. Cavs | Top | 118-114 | Push | 0 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:10 ET): The way things stand currently, this would be a first round playoff matchup in the East. While the underlying metrics suggest that it is Cleveland (the current 6-seed) who has had the “better” season overall, I don’t think the upstart Cavaliers would want to see the Sixers in a seven-game series. For starters, Philly beat them 125-119 when they last met (on March 4th). The Sixers are also clearly a stronger team now (because of James Harden) than they were in the first half of the season. Harden was in the Sixers’ lineup for that March 4th win over Cleveland. He scored 25 points. Each of Philly’s first five games with Harden in the lineup saw the team score at least 125. But the L5 have been a bit of a different story with them averaging just 105.8. But that number is a little misleading because it includes a 99-82 loss at Miami where Harden sat. I should also mention Joel Embiid, who leads the NBA in scoring at 29.9 PPG. The Harden-Embiid duo clearly makes Philly one of the top teams in the East. Now I did fade the Sixers their last time out, and they lost 114-110 (at home) to Denver. But the Nuggets are a better team than the Cavs. Note that Philly did jump out to an early 17-point lead over Denver. Cleveland comes into this game banged up, playing without All-Star Jarrett Allen as well as Rajon Rondo. So I don’t expect them to play as well as they did the last time they faced this Sixers team. Before beating the Clippers in OT on Monday, the Cavs had dropped two straight and five of seven. I know this is a reversal of Monday - when I faded Philly and took Cleveland (won both bets). But the matchup calls for it as I just think the 76ers are the far better team right now. 10* Philadelphia |
|||||||
03-16-22 | Bryant +3.5 v. Wright State | Top | 82-93 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
8* Bryant (6:40 ET): No matter who prevails in this “First Four” matchup, it won’t be a long NCAA Tournament stay for either Bryant or Wright State as the winner will go on to face the South's #1 seed, Arizona, in the Round of 64. Bryant, champions of the NEC, is making its first ever appearance in the Big Dance. Wright State, out of the Horizon League, is making its fourth (and first since 2018). Due to the perceived home court advantage for the Raiders (their campus is located just an hour away from Dayton), bettors seem willing to hitch their wagon. But I’m not convinced they should be the favorites here. Wright State has three double digit scorers, but little in the way of depth as four players are averaging 32+ minutes for HC Scott Nagy. If there’s foul trouble, the Raiders are going to be in big trouble here. Nagy seemed disappointed that his team was put in the “First Four,” but the reality is they were down 16 (with 11:47 left!) in the Horizon League Tourney Final against Northern Kentucky, so they’re a bit lucky to even be here. It was a one-point win, 72-71, in that game. Wright State is 262nd in defensive efficiency, worst among all 68 teams in the Tournament. That shaky defense will be tested by Bryant’s Peter Kiss, who is the nation’s leading scorer at 28.2 PPG and does an excellent job at getting to the FT line. The Bulldogs have lost just one game since Jan 6. In the NEC Tourney Final, they destroyed a very good Wagner team 70-43, which made me look foolish (I had Wagner). I know that Bryant benefited from some really poor three-point shooting by opponents in conference play. But Wright State shoots just 32.8% from long distance and I don’t think they are the team to exploit the Bulldogs’ defense. 8* Bryant |
|||||||
03-15-22 | Belmont +4 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 71-82 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
10* Belmont (7:00 ET): The NIT gets underway on Tuesday and you can call this “the Battle of Nashville” with Vanderbilt hosting Belmont in first round action. The underdog Bruins should be psyched for this matchup as it is a chance to beat a SEC program that is located right in their “backyard.” I believe Belmont is the better team here and the clincher is the fact they’ve been off for more than ten days while Vandy is just four days removed from the grind of the SEC Tournament. Take the points here. Belmont’s run in the OVC (Ohio Valley) Tourney ended with a disappointing two-point loss to Morehead State in the semifinal. That was just the second loss for Belmont, going back to mid-January. Since 2022 began, the only teams to beat the Bruins were Morehead State and Murray State. There have been only five instances this season where this team was beaten by more than three points. Rarely are they underdogs; just four times all season have the Bruins been getting points and three of those occasions were part of the non-conference schedule, back before X-Mas. Vanderbilt is one of the weaker SEC teams, though they are currently on a 7-1 ATS run. That’s in stark contrast to Belmont’s 1-8 ATS slide coming into tonight. But Vandy’s recent ATS success is a byproduct of typically being the underdog. They did have a nice upset of Alabama in the SEC Tourney, but were down 15 in the 2H of that game. Belmont is 3-0 ATS the previous three times they’ve played with seven or more days rest. I like the idea of the better team getting points and I think Belmont will be the more motivated team tonight as well. 10* Belmont |
|||||||
03-14-22 | Nuggets +2.5 v. 76ers | Top | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
8* Denver (7:40 ET): Playing side AND total in this matchup and let’s start by analyzing the former. Denver, despite four straight ATS losses, seems to be in a great spot here as Philadelphia is in the second night of a back to back and had to go to overtime last night to defeat Orlando (who has the worst record in the Eastern Conference). This line, perhaps influenced by the recent addition of James Harden for the 76ers, opened way too high. Take the points. The Nuggets are looking to bounce back from an embarrassing 127-115 defeat at home, which came against the Raptors. The final score there is a little deceiving as Denver led going into the 4Q. They had 99 points through three quarters, but went cold in the fourth, scoring only 16. Getting dominated in second chance points did not help matters. Still, there’s plenty of reasons to “keep the faith,” especially since the Nuggets have won five straight on the road. Philly won its first five games with Harden in the lineup, but then was blown out Thursday here at home by Brooklyn, then struggled to get by Orlando last night. The Sixers trailed by six going into the fourth quarter and have now failed to cover in four of the last five games, a sign that Harden has made them a bit overrated in the marketplace. The Nuggets have Nikola Jokic and this game marks just the third time over the last month that they have been underdogs. 8* Denver |
|||||||
03-14-22 | Clippers v. Cavs -6.5 | Top | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): This is a bad spot for the Clippers, who only managed to squeak by the Pistons last night. Now, I know I had LA in that one, as a 4.5-point favorite on the road. They won by just four after Detroit’s Cade Cunningham made a “meaningless” layup with just 8.2 seconds remaining. But to get the SU win, the Clips had to outscore the Pistons 67-49 in the 2H. This team remains short-handed (no George or Leonard) and there’s no real sense of urgency here as they seem destined for a play-in spot in the Western Conference. Meanwhile, the Cavs are desperate to hold on to a top six spot in the East. They’ve lost 8 of 11 amidst several key injuries and are also just 2-8-1 ATS in that same stretch. On Saturday, the Cavs went to Chicago for a key game and lost 101-91 as 5.5-point underdogs. That leaves them just one game ahead of seventh place Toronto. But they are still fourth in both point differential and net efficiency. I think tonight is a great spot for JB Bickerstaff’s team to get back on track, despite not having some key players. Back in October, Cleveland routed the Clippers 92-79 out in LA. That helped set the tone for a rather shocking first half of the season as the Cavs were arguably the league’s most pleasant surprise. They’ve taken a hit over the last month or so, but are still a much better team than the Clippers and I look for the Cavs to get back to playing solid defense tonight. They are #2 in the NBA in scoring defense (103.7 PPG allowed) and only give up 100.6 PPG at home. Lay the points. 8* Cleveland |
|||||||
03-13-22 | Iowa v. Purdue -2 | Top | 75-66 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
8* Purdue (3:30 ET): We’ve got the potential for a real “shootout” here in the Big 10 Tournament Final as it’s a matchup of the two most efficient offenses in the entire country. But Iowa, playing its fourth game in four days, is at a disadvantage from where I sit. After pretty much breezing through their first two tourney games (beat N’western 112-76 and Rutgers 84-74), the Hawkeyes needed a second half rally to overcome Indiana in yday’s semifinal. Purdue ended up beating Michigan State by only five in the other semi, but led virtually the entire game. I’m going with who I feel has been the best Big 10 team all season. The Boilermakers beat the Hawkeyes both times in the regular season, 77-70 in West Lafayette and 83-73 in Iowa City. They had double digit halftime leads in both games and completely smoked the Iowa defense the last time they met, shooting 61.2% for the game, including 13 of 22 from three-point range. I realize that Purdue is 0-7-1 ATS its last eight games, but the pointspread won’t be a factor here as we’re basically needing just a SU win. Iowa has hit 40 three-pointers in the three tournament games, which is quite ridiculous and eventually those shots won’t keep falling. Had they “only” made 39, there’s a chance they wouldn’t be here as it was Jordan Bohannon’s three with less than one second remaining yesterday that got them here. Meanwhile, Purdue was up by as many as 13 in the 2H on Saturday. The Boilermakers are 24-0 SU this season when scoring 70+ points and will almost certainly hit that benchmark today, given Iowa gives up 71.3 PPG. 8* Purdue |
|||||||
03-13-22 | Clippers -4.5 v. Pistons | Top | 106-102 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (3:10 ET): The Pistons, 18-49 with the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference, are getting far too much respect from the oddsmakers here, even if they are at home and have covered nine in a row. The Clippers will be desperate for a win here after losing in Atlanta Friday night, 112-106. The Clips at least covered the spread in that game (were +7.5), but clearly felt like they should have won, if not for some whistles not going their way. Marcus Morris’ ejection in the third quarter really hurt. The Pistons’ recent ATS run is a little shocking and with a short-handed lineup, it figures to end here. Multiple players in the regular rotation missed Friday’s 114-103 loss at Boston (where the Pistons were 14-point underdogs). Detroit lost by 11 even though the Celtics shot just 6 of 32 from three-point range. The Pistons allowed the Celtics to shoot 62% inside the arc and make 24 free throws. You also can almost never count on the Pistons’ offense, which is 28th in efficiency and 29th in points per game. The Clippers obviously are still without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, but they are a top 10 team in defensive efficiency and thus I don’t see them giving up many points here this afternoon. While LA certainly looks “safe” when it comes to making the play-in round, a loss here could be potentially devastating. It’s very rare to only have to lay a few points to go against this Pistons team, which has been an underdog in all but three games this season. It’s time to “sell high” on their ATS win streak. 8* LA Clippers |
|||||||
03-13-22 | Yale v. Princeton -3.5 | Top | 66-64 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
10* Princeton (12:00 ET): Princeton was the clear class of the Ivy League this season, but even at 23-5 SU, their resume isn’t strong enough to guarantee an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament. So the Tigers MUST win here against long-time rival Yale in the Ivy League Tournament Final. They come in riding an eight-game win streak after ousting Cornell in the semifinals yesterday, 77-73, a game where they did not cover the spread. Yale did cover on Saturday, beating Penn 67-61 as three-point chalk, and has won 10 of 12. The teams split the regular season series, each winning in the other’s gym. This rubber match is being played in Harvard’s gym, so no home court advantage for Princeton. But they do have a clear advantage on the offensive end of the floor as they rank eighth in the country in points per game (80.6) and seventh in three-point shooting (38.8%). Yale may normally be tough defensively, holding six of its last nine opponents to 65 points or less, but Princeton dropped 81 on them the last time they met. The Tigers have shot better than 50% each of their last three games. I know that Yale underachieved during the non-conference portion of the schedule, but Princeton has been the better team all season and it would be a bit of a shame if the Tigers aren’t the ones to grab the automatic bid. Yale typically feasts on getting to the free throw line and offensive rebounds, but Princeton is typically pretty good at limiting those two things. Yale is also just 4-11 ATS off an ATS win. 10* Princeton |
|||||||
03-12-22 | Wolves v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 113-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
10* Miami (8:10 ET): Looking to fade Minnesota for the second night in a row. Last night worked out pretty well, didn’t it? I said it was time to “sell high” on the T’wolves, who were on a 6-0 SU and ATS win streak going into Orlando. They lost outright, as a 7.5-point favorite, 118-110. Keep in mind that the Magic entered that game with the lowest win percentage in the entire NBA. Now, without rest, the T’wolves must turn around and face the East-leading Heat on the road. I’m fading the T’wolves again, though this time we must LAY points to do so. Miami was also in action Friday as they beat Cleveland 117-105 as an eight-point favorite. The Heat are now 45-23 SU on the season and have a 2.5 game lead over Milwaukee for the top spot in the East. They are now 6-1 ATS their last seven games. Last night ensured they’d keep alive a streak which has seen them not lose B2B games in almost two months. The Heat are 13-3 SU since Feb 3 and are a top six team in both offensive and defensive efficiency this season. As mentioned in yday’s analysis, Minnesota is subpar on the road (16-18 SU), mainly because of the fact it gives up an average of 116.9 PPG on their travels. The T’wolves are just 1-5 ATS when coming off a SU loss as a favorite and I don’t think the jump in class (in terms of opponent) can be overstated here. The T’wolves previous five games saw them face the Thunder twice, Blazers twice and Magic. Those three teams are a combined 73 games below .500! The offensive production is due to curtail. 10* Miami |
|||||||
03-12-22 | Texas Tech v. Kansas -1.5 | Top | 65-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
analysis soon |
|||||||
03-11-22 | Wolves v. Magic +7 | Top | 110-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:10 ET): Minnesota couldn’t possibly be any hotter than they are right now, having won and covered six straight. The last five wins have all been by double digits, three of them by 30 or more points! But this has caused the market to take notice and tonight the T’wolves are lofty road favorites, a position they are not too familiar with being in. Yes, they did recently destroy the Thunder in OKC as a similar sized road favorite (compared to tonight). But I think the T’wolves are due for an off-night here. Orlando just pulled an upset Weds night, going to New Orleans and defeating the Pelicans 108-102 as 8.5-point road dogs. It was the Magic’s fourth win in the last seven games, a solid stretch for them. They still have the worst SU record in the NBA (17-50) entering tonight, but they played the Suns (who have the best record in the NBA) tough the other night and have just one loss by more than eight points since returning from the All-Star Break. They are 8-2 ATS L10 games with a total of 230 or higher. Minnesota has simply been shooting the lights out of late and I don’t think they can continue to do so. They are basically averaging 130 points on better than 50% shooting during the six-game win streak and that cannot be maintained. Defensively, the T’wolves struggle on the road, giving up 116.8 PPG. That’s why they have a sub-.500 record away from home. A team with a losing road record should not be favored by this many points, no matter how well they’ve been playing. Take the points. 10* Orlando |
|||||||
03-11-22 | Akron v. Toledo -5.5 | Top | 70-62 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
9* Toledo (5:00 ET): The “chalk walked” into the MAC semifinals with the top four seeds all advancing. The first semi pits top seed Toledo against 4-seed Akron. Both of these teams won close yesterday afternoon. Toledo avoided what would have been a massive upset (they were -17 against Central Michigan) as RayJ Dennis made a layup with 10 seconds left to give the Rockets a 72-71 win. Akron won 70-68 over Buffalo as Greg Tribble made two free throws with 3.2 seconds left. Toledo dominated the MAC during the regular season, going 17-3 straight up and 16-4 against the spread. So it’s a bit surprising that they are such a short favorite here. The Rockets faced Akron just one time in the regular season and won that game 84-76 as a 7.5-point favorite.They shot 59% from the floor while the Zips did not help themselves by missing 10 free throws and shooting only 28% from three-point range. But note Toledo is 12-1 ATS this season vs. teams that have a winning record. Akron comes into this game on a six-game win streak (as does Toledo!) but the last two wins have been by a total of three points. For whatever reason, Central Michigan always seems to play Toledo tough. But the Rockets’ four previous wins had all come by double digits. Toledo is simply the better team here and KenPom has them as an 8.5-point favorite. There’s a major edge at the offensive end where the Rockets rank 35th in the country in efficiency while the Zips are 139th. Assuming UT can push the tempo, Akron won’t be able to keep up. Lay the points. 9* Toledo |
|||||||
03-11-22 | Cincinnati +12 v. Houston | Top | 56-69 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): The first thing to consider here is that Cincy MUST win the Conference Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament while Houston is obviously a NCAA Tournament team that will get a pretty high seed. The Bearcats did play yesterday, and it certainly wasn’t as easy as the final 74-63 score showed against East Carolina. But after scoring the final 12 points of that game, I think they are going to surprise here and stay within the double digit number. Houston did not have a good end to the regular season as they got clobbered by Memphis, 75-61, a game where they were actually favored by 2.5 points. The Cougars turned the ball over a season-high 20 times in that game and trailed by as many as 23 points in the first half. Now that was just their fifth loss of the season and Memphis is the ONLY team to beat them by more than two points! But I can see a combination of the layoff and overconfidence leading to a poor start here for the favorite. Remember that due to injuries, Houston has a VERY short rotation (sometimes goes only six deep). Cincinnati did lose the two regular season meetings with Houston by a combined 40 points. But again, the perception that creates has led to some value for this tournament matchup. I certainly don’t think the Bearcats can play any worse than they did in either of the two regular season meetings. They made a season-high 10 three-pointers yesterday, a positive sign, and I think they will play “loose and free” here. Take the points. 8* Cincinnati |
|||||||
03-10-22 | Nets v. 76ers -4 | Top | 129-100 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:30 ET): Does Brooklyn, currently in eighth place in the Eastern Conference, probably “need” this game more than Philadelphia (who is third)? Yeah. But don’t discount the motivations of James Harden tonight as he faces his former team. The 76ers are 5-0 in games with Harden in the lineup since the blockbuster trade with the Nets. They have averaged slightly more than 125 points in those five wins, four of which have come by at least 16 points. The Sixers are the better team here and I’ll lay the points. Harden sat out Philly’s 99-82 loss to Miami on Friday. But he returned to the lineup Monday as the team beat Chicago 121-106. It was actually Joel Embiid leading the way in that one, with 43 points. In the 128 minutes that Harden and Embiid have shared the court together so far, the Sixers have outscored opponents by 76 points, an incredible number! Also, the team’s defense has gotten much better, posting a defensive efficiency rating that would be better than the league-leading Celtics (when Harden and Embiid are together). The Nets are still more of a work in progress as Kyrie Irving’s “on again, off again,” status has been a problem (due to him not being vaccinated). I don’t think the team can count on him going for 50 points again like he did the other night vs. Charlotte (who is a bad defensive team). Durant continues to work his way back from injury. He and Irving simply haven’t played together enough over the L2 years and to me this remains an overrated side. The Nets are 2-11 ATS off a double digit win. 10* Philadelphia |
|||||||
03-10-22 | Tulsa v. Wichita State -6 | Top | 73-67 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
10* Wichita State (3:00 ET): Tulsa has been a bit of an unlucky team this season, but I don't think that's going to change here in the conference tournament. The Golden Hurricane did pull out a one-point victory in their regular season finale, beating UCF 73-72, but you’d have to go all the way back to mid-December to find the last time this team posted B2B wins. They finished second from the bottom in the American this year, ahead of only South Florida, and were swept by their first round opponent (Wichita State), losing both games by 10 points. Wichita State comes into this tournament off B2B wins. One of them was against Tulsa, 72-62, as a three-point road favorite. Then the Shockers closed the regular season by beating East Carolina 70-62. It was not a great season in Wichita, but the team still sits inside the Top 50 in defensive efficiency. They’ve won and covered five of the last six meetings with Tulsa and in the regular season sweep this year, held them to an average of just 55 PPG. Remember that Wichita State won the regular season AAC title last season. It’s been a tough fall this year, but they are clearly better than Tulsa and the rest of the bottom-feeders in this league. This line just looks way too short, given Tulsa has just two wins away from home all season. The only “true” road win was against USF while the other was a neutral site game vs. Rhode Island back in November. The Golden Hurricane are also 0-6 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a home loss. 10* Wichita State. |
|||||||
03-10-22 | Butler v. Providence -7.5 | Top | 61-65 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 28 m | Show |
8* Providence (12:00 ET): Surprise! Me taking the Friars may come as a shock to those who have followed my plays over the course of the season, but the situation is really in their favor in this Big East Quarterfinal matchup. Rested, they are taking on Butler, who went to overtime to upset Xavier yesterday. Let’s not forget Butler had lost five in a row going into yesterday. Providence has not lost to any Big East team besides Villanova going back to January 4th. I’m laying the points in this one. Now it’s been established that Providence has been arguably THE “luckiest” team in America this season. Their record in close games is stunning and Butler knows this VERY well as the Friars beat them by seven and one in the two regular season meetings, the latter going to OT after Providence rallied from 19 down in the 2H. But that’s water under the bridge now and we’ve got a superior team, rested, against someone coming off an OT game. Note Butler was down four in the last 30 seconds of regulation yesterday, so it was their “turn” to be lucky. Providence hasn’t played since losing (by two) at Villanova on March 1st. This means they should be fully healthy as HC Ed Cooley expects Al Durham to return after missing a month, including the second game vs. Butler. Durham is a double digit scorer, so that’s a key returnee. Butler just isn’t that good (14-18 SU) and not capable of playing any better than they did yesterday. Two players carried the scoring load, and I just can’t see Harris and Lukosius combining for 56 again. 8* Providence |
|||||||
03-09-22 | Bulls -6 v. Pistons | Top | 114-108 | Push | 0 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
10* Chicago (7:10 ET): The Bulls have experienced a real “downturn” of late, losing and failing to cover each of the last five games. But most of those losses have come against some of the top teams in the NBA, like Memphis, Miami, Milwaukee and Philadelphia. The Bulls have had some real difficulty beating the top teams in the league, but one team they have not had trouble beating resides at the bottom, that being tonight’s opponent, the Pistons. The Bulls are 10-0 SU/ATS the past 10 meetings including 3-0 this season. Wouldn’t you know though that Detroit comes into Wednesday riding an 8-0 ATS win streak. They are 6-2 SU in those eight games as well. It’s easily the best stretch of basketball that the Pistons have played all season. Two nights ago, here at home, they defeated Atlanta in overtime by a score of 113-110. It was their third straight SU win, the first time they’ve managed a win streak of this length since March of 2019. So something is going to have to give here. It’s a matter of which trend(s) do you believe in? Recently, the Pistons have clearly been better than the Bulls. But, long-term, the Bulls have certainly had the Pistons’ number. I’m looking for the Bulls’ mastery of this rivalry to continue. They might be 0-9 SU this year against Miami, Philadelphia and Milwaukee - the three teams ahead of them in the East - but their record against the rest of the conference is 24-8 SU. The three wins over the Pistons have been by an average of 22.3 PPG. Nikola Vucevic (questionable) could return tonight. Regardless, the Bulls aren’t as bad as they’ve looked recently nor are the Pistons as good as they’ve looked recently. 10* Chicago |
|||||||
03-09-22 | West Virginia +1.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 73-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
10* West Virginia (7:00 ET): Because Oklahoma State is ineligible for the postseason, this is the only first round game in the Big 12 Tournament and the winner gets the dubious “honor” of having to face Kansas tomorrow in the quarterfinals. So it’s basically “one last chance to shine” for either Kansas State or West Virginia, the two bottom teams in the conference standings. I’m on WVU here as they showed signs of “life” by winning the regular season finale, 70-64 over TCU. Kansas State, meanwhile, has lost five in a row. Now the Mountaineers had dropped seven in a row before beating TCU in Morgantown. But some of those losses were close, including one by just a single point to Texas. This team did start the season by winning 13 of its first 15 games. They have lost 14 of 16 with two separate seven-game skids, however, this is the one matchup they can win in this Tournament. Kansas State has been giving up a ton of points recently, more than their season average each of the last six times out. Making matters tougher for K-State is that one of their leading scorers, Markquis Nowell, has been battling a hamstring injury and is listed as questionable. Nowell led the team with 21 points when they beat WVU in Manhattan on Valentine’s Day. That’s the last time the Wildcats won a game. Note WVU took the first meeting in Morgantown. Kansas State didn’t turn the ball over too many times in the two regular season matchups, but Bob Huggins’ press could be the difference-maker here. 10* West Virginia |
|||||||
03-09-22 | Syracuse v. Florida State -1 | Top | 96-57 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
8* Florida State (12:00 ET): Today is the second round of the ACC Tournament. This is the only one of the four matchups where neither of the participants played yesterday. Florida State ended its regular season on a real roll, impressively beating Virginia, Notre Dame and NC State. Impressive is not a word that could be used to describe the way Syracuse finished its regular season as the Orange have lost four in a row straight up and failed to cover five in a row. I expect recent form to hold here and am taking FSU. This tournament is being played in Brooklyn. While that’s within the state boundary for Syracuse, they have just four wins all season outside of the Carrier Dome. This team is shockingly bad at the defensive end, having allowed over 75 PPG for the season. Among ACC teams, only NC State had a worse defensive efficiency rating and the Wolfpack finished in last place and are already out of the Tourney. Bottom line is that I have zero belief that the ‘Cuse can win a game outside of its own gym. FSU actually won at the Carrier Dome back in January 76-71 as a 2.5-point dog. They did so by shooting almost 55% overall and 60% from three-point range. That was after giving the Orange one of their few road wins this season, back in December. I just think that the ‘Noles come into the rubber match in better form. Syracuse blew an 18-point lead and lost at home to Miami on Saturday, which will be tough to get over. Both teams have thin benches, but the Orange are thinner at the moment. 8* Florida State |
|||||||
03-08-22 | Cavs v. Pacers +3.5 | Top | 127-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:10 ET): Already without Caris LeVert and Rajon Rondo, Cleveland just lost All-Star Center Jarrett Allen to injury in Sunday’s 104-96 win over Toronto. One of the surprise teams in the league this year, the Cavs have started to slip, dropping six of their last eight and are now sixth in the Eastern Conference standings. There’s a chance Rondo could return Tuesday, but I certainly don’t like the idea of the Cavs laying points on the road right now, even facing a team like Indiana, who is coming off a rough road trip. While the Pacers essentially “waved the white flag” on their 2021-22 season at the trade deadline (including sending LeVert to Cleveland), they are better than their record. No team has been more snakebit in close games as Indiana’s SU record is just 2-11 in games decided by three points or less. But even after losing 11 of their last 14 overall, there’s some hope here with the starting backcourt of Brogdon and Haliburton playing together. Brogdon had 27 in Sunday’s loss to Washington while Haliburton has scored 20+ in six of the ten games since coming over from Sacramento. This will be the Pacers’ first time playing at home since blowing out Boston here on Feb 27th. Considering who they faced (Orlando twice, Detroit and Washington), the just completed road trip should have been better than 1-3 SU, but the bottom line is the Pacers are a far better team at home (where they actually own a positive point differential). Cleveland is basically a .500 team on the road (17-16 SU) and now playing short-handed. Take the points. 10* Indiana |
|||||||
03-08-22 | Wagner +4.5 v. Bryant | Top | 43-70 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
10* Wagner (7:00 ET): These were the top two teams in the NEC all year. In fact, Wagner didn’t even lose a conference game until February, after a 13-0 start. But they ended up losing three of the final five conference games and that resulted in a drop into second place by season’s end. The regular season title was actually decided on the final day when the Seahawks lost to Bryant, 78-70, after blowing a six-point halftime lead. That was also Wagner’s lone non-OT conference loss of the season! As a top-two seed, Wagner got a double-bye into the tournament semis and they promptly blew out Long Island 82-62 as a 5.5-point favorite. Now that game was at home and here they’ll have to play on the road by virtue of Bryant being the top seed. But Bryant certainly struggled here at home in their semifinal, only beating Mount St. Mary’s 70-69 as a 7.5-point favorite. That game was decided on a free throw with no time remaining. Judging by the respective shooting percentages, you would expect Bryant would have lost that game. But they had a huge edge (+19) in FT attempts compared to MSM. Wagner did win the season’s first meeting, 84-81, so there’s that. To me, they have been the better team this season. Bryant has been pretty lucky (#5 luck rating over at KenPom) and my power ratings say that even with the home court edge, they should be a dog here. Wagner has a much higher defensive efficiency rating and should be able to avenge its only regulation conference loss of the season here. They have won 26 of their last 31 NEC games. Take the points. 10* Wagner |
|||||||
03-07-22 | Oral Roberts +1.5 v. North Dakota State | Top | 72-92 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
10* Oral Roberts (9:30 ET): The “chalk has walked” in the bottom half of the Summit League bracket as 3-seed Oral Roberts will be meeting 2-seed North Dakota State in the second semifinal. Honestly, whoever wins this will be a huge underdog in the Final, presuming the opponent is South Dakota State, who hasn’t been beaten in conference play all year. But I’m seeing value in this one as I believe Oral Roberts to be the better team. Take the points. This is a double revenge spot for ORU, who lost the regular season meetings 72-71 and 77-59. In those two losses, the Eagles shot below 25% from three-point range. That’s very uncharacteristic for them. They are shooting 38.1% from behind the arc for the season and average 83.7 PPG, fourth most in the country. Last night in the quarterfinals, they put up 80 against Western Illinois, a game where they never trailed. North Dakota State has been a pretty lucky team this season, winning a lot of close games. It wasn’t close yesterday as the Bison rolled to an 82-62 victory over Denver, but even so they were down at halftime. I think that Oral Roberts is due for some positive regression at the defensive end and they’ve now covered seven straight games on a neutral court. I simply happen to think that the Eagles are the better team here and cannot see them losing a third straight time to NDSU. 10* Oral Roberts |
|||||||
03-07-22 | College of Charleston -1 v. NC-Wilmington | Top | 57-60 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
8* Charleston (8:30 ET): The 6-seed is favored over the 2-seed in the CAA Tournament, which should tell you something right off the bat. UNC Wilmington (the 2-seed) has been one of the luckiest teams in America this season, going 12-3 SU in games decided by six or less or in overtime. They are 4-0 in OT games. There have been nine instances this season where the Seahawks trailed in a game by double digits, but came back to win. They’ve trailed in 14 of their 22 wins this season, including yesterday’s quarterfinal victory over Elon. Now, given UNCW ended up winning 75-58, you may not realize they were down at halftime on Sunday. But Elon could muster only 22 points in the 2H and their leading scorer was held to four points on 2 of 11 shooting. Tonight’s opponent has had no such issues scoring as Charleston comes in hot, having shot better than 51% in each of its last six games. The Cougars put up 92 last night in their quarterfinal win over Hofstra, who was the 3-seed. I made the mistake of playing the Under in that Charleston-Hofstra game and learned my lesson about what the Cougars can do. They are second in the country in tempo and averaging 78.9 PPG. This is a double revenge spot for them as they lost both regular season meetings to UNC Wilmington. But the set up here is a bit different as both regular season meetings saw Charleston come in off a seven-day break. Maybe that was too much rest? Charleston led by 22 at the half last night. This is a hot team and UNCW is a team due to lose. 8* Charleston |
|||||||
03-07-22 | Blazers +15 v. Wolves | Top | 81-124 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
10* Portland (8:10 ET): Let’s try this again as we should have had a win Saturday with the Blazers getting a similar number of points, but they fell apart late and ended up either not covering or pushing, depending on when you bet them. Portland was severely short-handed for the contest, but was leading at the half and only down one with 8:41 left. To not cover, as a double-digit underdog, was a really bad break. Now Minnesota has been red hot, winning and covering four straight. They’ve averaged 132.3 PPG during that win streak, which has seen them shoot 52.8% or better in every game. But they are due to cool off, especially after shooting a season-best 56.5% in the last game. That came on the second night of a back to back, after they had made 22 of 47 three-pointers and turned in their highest scoring half of the season. There’s just no way those numbers are sustainable. So with the T’wolves likely to cool off, look for Portland to take advantage and stay within the number this time. Before Saturday, the Blazers had lost three in a row by 30+ points, so as disappointing as that last result was, it marked an improvement. As beat up as they are, I just can’t see a fifth straight double digit loss here. The first two meetings vs. Minnesota this year were decided by a total of seven points. 10* Portland |
|||||||
03-06-22 | Nebraska +12.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
10* Nebraska (2:00 ET): Gonna try again to fade Wisconsin, who remains one of the more overrated (and certainly LUCKIEST) teams in the country. The Badgers come into this regular season finale ranked #10 in the country, however both KenPom (#26) and my own personal power ratings (#27) look at them a lot less favorably. The key to the overachieving in Madison has been a preposterous record in close games; the Badgers are 15-1 SU when the final margin is six points or less. Four of their last five wins have been by five points or less, the last three coming by a total of nine points. A win here would give the Badgers the Big 10 regular season title. (They can also clinch if Illinois loses later today). What’s crazy about Wisconsin being the probable #1 seed in the conference tournament is that my power rankings consider them to be just the SIXTH best team in the Big 10! At the bottom of the league is Nebraska, but the Cornhuskers aren’t going down without a fight. The last two games have seen them pull off an upset, beating Penn State by 23 and then Ohio State by eight. The ‘Huskers were DD dogs in both games. Back on January 27th, Nebraska was able to cover the spread (at home) vs. Wisconsin, losing by only eight as nine-point dogs. They are also 3-0 ATS this season as a road underdog of 12.5 to 15 points. Wisconsin is just 1-3 ATS this season when laying 12.5 or more at the betting window, home or road. Just take the points here as when Wisconsin is involved, it’s almost always a close contest. 10* Nebraska |
|||||||
03-05-22 | Blazers +14 v. Wolves | Top | 121-135 | Push | 0 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
8* Portland (8:10 ET): The Blazers are in a terrible way right now, but this is a good spot for them to ambush the T’wolves, who are playing the second night of a back to back. Minnesota obviously looked quite impressive last night, easily dispatching OKC, 138-101 as a 9.5-point road favorite. But there, it was the T’wolves in the advantageous situation as the Thunder were coming off a shock 119-107 win as double digit underdogs. Minnesota is rarely a favorite of this size, so I will play accordingly. Portland certainly cannot play any worse than it has each of the L3 games where they’ve lost by 30+ points each time out! That is insane. I know that they are short-handed and the roster was reshuffled at the trade deadline, but the team should not be THIS bad. Note those three losses came to Phoenix, Golden State and Denver, all of whom are firmly established in the top six in the West and the Suns and Warriors are the top two teams in the NBA. Minnesota is NOT at that level. Before the All-Star Break, the Blazers were on a four-game win streak (season best) which included wins over Milwaukee and Memphis. There is simply no way Minnesota can match what they did last night when they made 22 of 47 three-pointers and had their highest-scoring half of the season. Six players scored at least 15 points. Can you say “letdown spot?” These teams have faced off twice previous to this and while Portland lost both, the games were decided by a total of seven points. This is a great sell-high (Minnesota)/buy low (Portland) spot. 8* Portland |
|||||||
03-05-22 | Iowa State +12.5 v. Baylor | Top | 68-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
9* Iowa State (6:00 ET): Coming full circle on Iowa State, who was 12-0 SU and ranked as high as #8 (in the country!) at that time. I was adamant the Cyclones, who finished 0-18 SU in Big 12 play last season, were not as good as their record/ranking. Sure enough, they’ve slipped considerably and come into their regular season finale vs. Baylor at 20-10 SU overall. At least they’ve been much more competitive in conference play this season, going 7-10 SU. That said, it was a horrible showing earlier this week at OK State (lost 53-36) and the Cyclones BADLY need an inspired showing here in Waco to seize some momentum for the Big XII Tournament. Baylor has no issues right now. They are ranked #3 in the country and coming off huge wins over Kansas and Texas. They need a win here and Kansas to lose to Texas to win the Big 12 regular season championship outright. Regardless, a likely #1 seed awaits in the NCAA Tournament. But coming off such high profile wins, and laying a big number here, it’s a good spot to fade the Bears as Iowa State is the team in more desperate need of a good showing. The Cyclones are off their lowest scoring game since 1948 as they shot a season-worst 28.3% from the field. They were just 2 of 17 from three-point range and scored only 16 points in the 2H. Tonight is a revenge game as Baylor handed the ‘Clones their first SU loss of the season, back on New Year’s Day, by a single point. ISU has covered 16 of the last 19 times it has been a road underdog of 12.5 to 15 points. They can’t shoot any worse than they did Wednesday and have already shown they can compete with Baylor. Take the points. 9* Iowa State |
|||||||
03-04-22 | Cavs v. 76ers -7 | Top | 119-125 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:10 ET): Am I falling prey to “recency bias” here? I don’t think so. The 76ers have won four in a row, while averaging 126 PPG, the last three coming with new arrival James Harden in the lineup and those wins have all been by 15 points or greater. Harden has been great so far with 82 points, 27 rebounds and 37 assists. Now the Sixers have faced the Knicks twice and Minnesota. But the Cleveland team they host tonight seems to be heading in reverse and a surprising first half of the season. I’ll lay the points in this one. Not only are the oddsmakers seemingly catching up the Cavaliers, apparently so is the rest of the NBA. Over the L6 games, the Cavs are 0-6 ATS and 1-5 straight up. The streak began with a loss to Philly, pre-Harden. Now it may seem as if I’m being unfair to Cleveland as injuries have taken their toll. But with Caris Levert and Rajon Rondo again expected to be out for tonight’s game, this team is at a disadvantage. They were blown out at home by Charlotte, 119-98, on Wednesday. With Harden and Joel Embiid, the Sixers are now a legit threat to take over the East. It’s odd to see the Sixers have a better record on the road, considering last year they were MUCH stronger here in the City of Brotherly Love. Defensively, they are allowing just 105.5 PPG at home this season and Cleveland has failed to even score 100 in three of its last six games. Look for the Sixers to continue rolling with Harden and move closer to the top of the Eastern Conference standings. 10* Philadelphia |
|||||||
03-03-22 | Grizzlies v. Celtics +1.5 | Top | 107-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:40 ET): Two of the hottest teams in the NBA square off tonight in Beantown. Memphis is third in the West with a 43-20 record and has won 24 of its last 30 games. Not to be outdone, Boston has won 12 of 14. Though they are currently just sixth in the Eastern Conference, the Celtics actually have the best YTD point differential in the East and I think they are a lock to move up the standings. Even with Jaylen Brown ruled out tonight, I believe the home team should be favored in this one. Now stopping the Grizzlies’ Ja Morant is a challenge for any team. Morant has scored 98 points in the last two games, setting a new franchise record twice. He scored 46 vs. Chicago, then 52 vs. San Antonio (on 22 of 30 shooting!). But I believe Boston, one of the top defensive teams in the league, is uniquely suited to slow down Morant. This is the #2 team in defensive efficiency for the season and they are #1 over the last month or so. Their only two losses over the last month both came in the second night of a back to back. The Celtics probably needed yesterday off after rallying back from 17 down to defeat Atlanta. I can’t see them falling into that kind of hole again here. I have a ton of respect for Memphis, but think they will fall to the 4-seed by season’s end (Utah is better). Morant is probably due for an “off game” as well. As a team, the Grizzlies shot the lights out vs. San Antonio on Monday and also held the Spurs to 28% from three-point range. They can’t count on that kind of disparity here against a better team. 8* Boston |
|||||||
03-03-22 | Bulls v. Hawks +2.5 | Top | 124-130 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:10 ET): These teams met right after the All-Star Break with Chicago winning 112-108. Fortunately, I bet Atlanta early enough in the day that I still cashed plus the points. Since that win, the Bulls have lost two in a row, falling to Memphis (116-110) and Miami (112-99). I’m on the record as saying I think the Bulls are likely to slip a bit in the Eastern Conference standings, where they are currently second despite having the sixth best point differential. Once again, I’ll be taking the points with Atlanta. The Hawks rebounded from that last loss to the Bulls by beating the Raptors 127-120. Unfortunately, then they blew a 17-point lead against the Celtics and ended up losing 107-98. Now getting up 17 on a team that’s been as hot as Boston is an achievement. But the Hawks really shot themselves in the foot with poor shot selection down the stretch. Expect better shot selection here tonight and it should be mentioned how the Hawks are much better at home (where they are 18-13 SU on the season). This is a big revenge game for Atlanta. Not only did they lose last week in Chicago, but they are 0-3 SU against the Bulls in 2021-22. The Hawks are not only revenge-minded, but more desperate than the Bulls because they are only 10th in the Eastern Conference and just one game away from not making the playoffs at all. I do think they will move up, but with Kevin Durant set to return for Brooklyn, it’s going to be tough to move up very far. The Bulls have struggled defensively ever since losing Ball and Caruso. Trae Young had only 14 points in the last meeting. He’s scored 72 in the two games since. 10* Atlanta |
|||||||
03-03-22 | Kennesaw State +8 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 67-78 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
8* Kennesaw State (7:00 ET): Kennesaw State has been incredibly unlucky this season, finishing fourth in the A-Sun East Division despite being tied for the fifth highest rating (in the conference) over at KenPom. I think the Owls can give Western Division Champ Jacksonville State a real scare here in the quarterfinals, even though they are at the disadvantage of having had to play a game to get here. On Monday, the Owls defeated Eastern Kentucky 82-73 and covered the 3.5-point spread. This game is at Jacksonville State as the higher seed gets to host all games in the A-Sun Tourney. Jacksonville State certainly ended the regular season well, posting four straight wins and covers. All four wins were by double digits. But now could be a good chance to “sell high” on the Gamecocks, who are just 1-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points this season. It was only a six-point game when they won at Kennesaw State back in January. Kennesaw is 5-1 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a home loss. Also, while Kennesaw is just 2-4 SU over its last six games, they have been remarkably competitive. The four losses have either been by less than six points or in overtime. The Owls really should have a better record and this is a game with some serious upset potential. The underdog has outscored its opponents over the course of this season, which further illustrates how unlucky they have been. Eventually, a team’s luck WILL turn and I give the dog an excellent shot at pulling off the outright win here. 8* Kennesaw State |
|||||||
03-03-22 | Oakland +4.5 v. Wright State | Top | 63-75 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
8* Oakland (7:00 ET): I’ve got the Golden Grizzlies rated as the better team here, so I’m surprised the line has moved this way. Oakland did need a win to make the quarterfinals while Wright State had a bye. But that disadvantage is mitigated by yesterday being an off-day. And it’s not like Oakland was really tested on Tuesday. They won rather easily, 69-58 over a terrible IUPUI team, and while they did not cover, take note that the spread was pretty massive (-23.5). I’m taking the better team and the points here. The reason Oakland failed to cover Tuesday was that they were just 8 of 27 from three-point range while IUPUI was 9 of 15. Still being able to win by double digits, while being on the wrong end of that kind of three-point percentage disparity, is pretty impressive. Now, as was already stated, IUPUI is a terrible team (maybe the worst in the country). But I’ve got Oakland rated as the top team in the Horizon, even though they finished fifth! Yes, you’ve got to factor the home court edge for Wright State into this line. But I don’t think that’s enough for Wright State to be favored by this many. Oakland has double revenge from the regular season, losing the two meetings by 4 and 11. Both were one-point games at half. I think it speaks volumes that in the regular season finale, Oakland was a favorite over regular season champ Cleveland State and won rather easily. They’ve struggled at the betting window much of the season, but this is a rare time they are underdogs. Wright State does not defend the three-point line well and I don’t think they’ll outrebound Oakland the same way they did in the two regular season matchups. Trust me on this one. Oakland is the better team! 8* Oakland |
|||||||
03-02-22 | Thunder +14.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 119-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (9:10 ET): The Thunder have obviously struggled to win games this season, but only Memphis has a better ATS record, OKC has covered at a 64.4% rate this season. That said, they did lose by 21 at home to Sacramento on Monday night. You’ve got to think we’re getting a bounce back effort from the Thunder tonight and I will take the big number. The Thunder have played Denver tough in the two previous meetings, both of which were played in OKC. They won outright (by 14!) in the first one, then only lost the rematch by four points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is back in the lineup now and he has scored 30 or more in all three games since returning. I just think this is a good time to “sell high” on Denver, who is a season-best 11 games over .500 and coming off a 32-point win over Portland. The Nuggets are still without some key players. Looking at the Nuggets’ current six-game win streak, only twice have they prevailed by more than 10 and twice they won by only a single point. 10* Oklahoma City |
|||||||
03-02-22 | LSU +6 v. Arkansas | Top | 76-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
10* LSU (9:00 ET): This is a big one for LSU, who I consider a Top 20 team in America, but they are just 8th in the SEC with an 8-8 SU record. To me, the Tigers should be up there competing with the top four for a conference championship. Tonight they face an Arkansas team that is up in that top four and whose only loss in the last two months was by a single point at Alabama. The Razorbacks are 9-0-1 ATS their L10 games as they pushed as two-point favorites over Kentucky this past weekend. I have the underdog rated as the better team here, so this is too many points and I’ll gladly take them. LSU has won four of six, but both losses were by a total of seven points and one was at Kentucky. The Tigers certainly remember losing as 6.5-point favorites to Arkansas back in Baton Rouge last month. Now it's payback time. This is a tough spot for the Hogs, coming off the win over UK. They also have Tennessee on deck. Tonight marks just the sixth time that LSU is an underdog this season. They are #4 in the country in defensive efficiency. 10* LSU |
|||||||
03-02-22 | Knicks +10.5 v. 76ers | Top | 108-123 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
8* New York (7:40 ET): The Knicks are going for immediate revenge here as they lost to the Sixers, at home, 125-109 on Sunday. The team, which made the playoffs last year, has now failed to cover the spread in 9 of its last 10 games and finds itself on the outside of the playoffs, four games back of the Hawks. It’s now or never for NY if they are to make a playoff push. Though tonight’s rematch is on the road, I don’t see the Knicks getting blown out. I’m taking the points. The Sixers have won three in a row, all on the road. But they are also 0-5 against the spread in their last five home games following a road trip of seven or more days. This will be the Sixers’ first home game since 2/15 when they were absolutely humiliated (losing by 48) to Boston. Here, all we are needing is the underdog to stay within single digits. The Sixers are winning by an average of just two points per game at home this season. They are third in the Eastern Conference coming into tonight, but my power ratings consider them the fifth best team. Note that on Sunday, it was only a two-point game entering the 4Q. 8* New York |
|||||||
03-02-22 | Charleston Southern v. North Carolina-Asheville -10 | Top | 79-78 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
8* UNC Asheville (2:00 ET): UNC Asheville will look to make it a season sweep over Charleston Southern this afternoon. The two regular season meetings weren’t even close with the Bulldogs winning by 23 at home and 19 on the road. Going back, they’ve beaten Charleston Southern all six times over the L3 seasons. This will be the first time, during that stretch, that the teams are meeting in the Big South Tournament. I expect the favorite to roll here. Charleston Southern, who is seeded last in this Tourney, has just one win in its last 12 games and it came over a non-DI foe (Toccoa Falls). Since then, it’s been six straight losses, most of them by double digits. The Buccaneers’ one and only Big South victory this season took place at home, against High Point, and it was by just four points. This is a bad basketball team, folks. UNC Asheville was taken to triple overtime in its regular season finale, but did end up beating Presbyterian 98-96. That was a well-earned victory after dropping the previous two games by a total of six points. Now note the number of points that Charleston Southern allowed in its regular season finale (92) and that was just in regulation. UNC Asheville is 10-3 ATS L13 after allowing 80+ points while Charleston Southern is 2-9 ATS its L11 in that same situation. Lay the points. 8* UNC Asheville |
|||||||
03-01-22 | Mavs v. Lakers +6 | Top | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
8* LA Lakers (10:00 ET): It’s getting to be desperate times for these Lakers, who are six games below .500 and just got their doors blown off, 123-95, at home by New Orleans on Sunday. Certainly, the best Laker fans can hope for is making the play-in round for a second straight year, which does not match the preseason expectations for this club. LeBron James has not endeared himself to management with recent comments about a possible second return to Cleveland. The team was soundly booed off the court after getting blown out by the Pelicans. But I think this is a solid “buy low” spot on the Lakers. It’s a national TV game, at home, and they aren’t going to want to be blown out yet again. They’re facing a Dallas team that I took on Sunday and it ended up being a very fortunate outright winner as the Mavs came back from 21 down to stun the Warriors 107-101 as a 3.5-point underdog. I’ll take the win, but it’s almost as if Golden State “fell asleep at the wheel,” scoring just 13 points in the 4Q and shooting 28.2% from three-point range for the game. As I said in my analysis, the Warriors were short-handed for that game (no Thompson or Green). The Lakers won’t have Anthony Davis, but they do have LeBron James and are getting points at home. The Mavericks are wrapping up a five-game road trip here and have a rematch with the Warriors (in Dallas) on deck. I feel that this game is way more important to the home team and thus taking the points is the best option here. The Lakers are 9-2 ATS this season after scoring 100 pts or less the previous game. 8* LA Lakers |
|||||||
03-01-22 | American v. Holy Cross -2 | Top | 69-63 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
8* Holy Cross (7:00 ET): Though they dropped BOTH regular season meetings to American U, I absolutely LOVE the situation here for Holy Cross, who is getting this 1st round Patriot League tournament matchup at home due to still finishing with a better conference record. American U has just five conference wins this year and finished in the basement of the Patriot League. In addition to two of the wins coming at HC’s expense, the Eagles won their final regular season game, 65-55 over Loyola MD. The fact that American won their last game only enhances my desire to fade them here. The Eagles have not won two straight conference games all season. They also have just three road wins. One of those obviously came here, but that was a game where Holy Cross turned in a putrid offensive effort in the 1H, scoring just 14 points. I think it’s fair to say that won’t be repeated tonight. The idea that American U would sweep three games against the same opponent just seems unlikely to me. Holy Cross actually has more than just double revenge coming into this one, they’ve actually lost the L6 head to head meetings. While you might then argue that history is NOT on the side of the home favorite here, I would beg to differ as American U has not won B2B games at any point since Dec 8-11. I find it quite hard to believe the Eagles could beat the same team on the road twice in the same season. After an ATS win this season, American has gone 2-11 SU and been outscored by 10.9 PPG. 8* Holy Cross |
|||||||
03-01-22 | Western Michigan v. Eastern Michigan -4.5 | Top | 71-60 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
10* Eastern Michigan (7:00 ET): I like the value we’re getting here. Eastern Michigan was a 2.5-point favorite when it won at Kalamazoo back on January 4th. The final score of that game was 85-79 and the Eagles never trailed and led by 17 at the half. Now not a ton has gone right for EMU since winning that conference opener. They come into their final regular season home game having dropped 12 of 15 and have failed to cover each of the last four games. But this is a VERY winnable contest where they are laying a short number to the worst team in the MAC. I’m laying the points. Western Michigan had zero conference wins entering Feb 12, but have shockingly won three of their last five, including a 78-67 upset at Bowling Green (were 8.5 point underdogs) on Saturday. That win snapped a 13-game road losing streak for the Broncos, so the idea of them winning AGAIN on the road seems far-fetched. Here’s the other thing; only the top eight teams in the MAC qualify for the conference tournament and WMU has already been eliminated from contention. So they’ve got NOTHING to play for these L2 games. Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan can still find its way into the Conference Tourney by winning its last two games. So their motivation is high here. I know the Eagles have struggled to cover the spread recently (1-7 ATS L8), but again, this seems like a REALLY solid value at home against the worst team in the MAC. EMU should have no problem scoring on a team that gives up nearly 80 PPG on the road. 10* Eastern Michigan |
|||||||
02-28-22 | New Mexico v. Fresno State -10 | Top | 68-71 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
10* Fresno State (10:00 ET): The upcoming Mountain West Tournament figures to be a real “dogfight” with the likes of Boise State, Wyoming, San Diego State and Colorado State considered the favorites. But don’t discount this Fresno State team as a possible darkhorse. I realize that the Bulldogs are just 7-7 SU in conference play, but this is a team that ranks #3 in the COUNTRY in scoring defense, giving up just 57.4 PPG. Here at home, that number drops to a paltry 55.7 PPG! New Mexico is a team we last checked on last weekend. They traveled to face last place San Jose State, who was still winless in conference play, and promptly lost 71-55 as 5.5-point chalk. I was obviously very glad to have faded the Lobos in that spot. Two days later, they lost again, badly, this time as 12-point underdogs (81-56 to Utah State). Saturday saw them snap their losing streak with a four-point win over Air Force, but they did not cover the eight-point spread. Note that New Mexico has just one SU win this year in conference play against someone other than Air Force and San Jose State, who are the bottom two teams. Back on Jan 25, FSU won the first meeting of these teams, 65-60 in Albuquerque. New Mexico is much weaker away from home where it is 2-10 SU and giving up 81.5 PPG. Given Fresno State’s defensive numbers (see above), this has the potential to turn into a real blowout. The Bulldogs have covered six of their last seven games against teams with losing records and with their regular season ending with games at San Diego State and Wyoming, a win here is a must. They won by 25 at Air Force last Tuesday and haven’t played since. So the schedule sets up quite nicely for them to dominate on Monday. 10* Fresno State |
|||||||
02-28-22 | Alcorn State v. Texas Southern -5.5 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
8* Texas Southern (8:30 ET): Given the fact Texas Southern was a 2.5-point favorite for the first meeting with Alcorn State (and that was on the road), it would seem as if we’re getting a bit of a “discount” on the Tigers here at home Monday night. Now, the fact TX Southern lost that first meeting, 73-72, obviously had to be accounted for by the oddsmakers. But my power ratings say that they should be double digit favorites in this one. They’ve won 9 of their last 10 games overall! This game will go a long way in determining the winner of the SWAC’s West Division. Currently, despite losing the first head to head meeting, TX Southern has a half-game edge on Alcorn State. But Alcorn State’s final two games are against the two last place teams in the conference and at home. Figuring they’ll win those, the Braves are in control of their own destiny as far as the division race is concerned. But if TX Southern were to win here and then Saturday vs. Prairie View A&M, they’d win the division based on a better overall WL record. This is Alcorn State’s second road game in three days. They upset PV A&M on Saturday, winning 72-69 as a 2.5-point dog. It was the Braves’ fourth consecutive road win and they really benefited from the opponent going 4 of 17 from three-point range. Alcorn’s last two victories have been by a total of four points. As for TX Southern, I’ve got them as the favorites to win the SWAC Tournament. They shot an impressive 55% against Jackson State on Saturday (third straight game over 50%) and are winning by an average of almost 15 PPG at home this season. Alcorn State shoot just 40.3% on the road, averaging 63.9 PPG. 8* Texas Southern |