Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-16-23 | Brandon Royval v. Alexandre Pantoja UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
Brandon Royval is off back-to-back 1st Rd wins. 8 of his last 9 fights have ended in either the 1st or the 2nd round. Alexandre Pantoja went the distance against Moreno last fight. He won his previous fight in the 1st round though. He previously defeated Royval in the 2nd round. Royval's style makes it likely that this rematch won't last long. The Raw Dog fights with ferocity and pace. Go with the Under! ***UFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR*** |
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12-02-23 | Miesha Tate v. Julia Avila -130 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -130 | 28 h 54 m | Show |
Miesha Tate. She's a legend. She's taken on fighters like Amanda Nunes and Holly Holm. She's even fought Ronda Rousey. Twice. That's all in the past. Those Rousey fights (both losses) were back in 2012 and 2013. Tate retired in 2016. Out of the sport for 5 years, she returned in 2021. She's been outclassed in both fights since coming back and has now lost 4 of her last 5. Clearly, Tate is on the downside of her career. She probably should have never come back. Avila has been out of action due to a pregancy. She left at the top of her game though. She's a couple years younger than Tate and still believes her time is yet to come: Avila said: "I’m going to see this through and there’s going to be a title in my future." She fought really hard to get back and will build up her name by handing Tate her 3rd loss in a row. ***UFC Fight Of The Year*** |
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09-23-23 | Andre Fialho -162 v. Tim Means | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -162 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
At first glance, this might not seem like the most exciting bout. Both fighters are on losing streaks but this is arguably the highlight of the prelims. Each could really use a victory. At 29 years of age, Fialho can still salvage his career. Means, now 39 years old, cannot say the same. Both prefer to strike. That's going to work to Fialho's advantage. Though he has been knocked out a few times, he's got a lot more power than Means. Though he's absolutely capable of winning a decision, I've got the younger Fialho winning this one by KO/TKO. *UFC Fight Of The Week |
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11-12-22 | Mike Trizano v. Seung Woo Choi -165 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -165 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Can’t say that either fighter has been all that successful as of late, but I like Choi to win this bout on the UFC 281 prelims.
It was just over a year ago that Choi was on a three-fight win streak and seemed to be ascending in the Featherweight Division. Losses to Alex Caceres and Joshua Culibao have halted the momentum, but Choi looks to get back on track here against Trizano, who has also dropped two in a row.
Trizano did win The Ultimate Fighter back in 2018, but since then has never been able to get on a run like Choi did. He was knocked out by Lucas Almeida in June and now hopes to avoid a fourth loss in his last five fights.
Choi is the harder hitter here and should be able to avoid takedowns. His takedown defense has improved the last couple of years. He will enjoy a three-inch reach advantage over his opponent on Saturday. Most concerning of all with Trizano is that he missed weight for this fight (by 1.6 pounds), which certainly calls durability into question. That’s why I’m stepping in here. 10* |
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07-30-22 | Alex Perez v. Alexandre Pantoja -182 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 8 m | Show |
INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY! |
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07-16-20 | Dan Ige v. Calvin Kattar OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: Calvin Kattar is 21-4 and Dan Ige is 14-2. Kattar is a 3-1 favorite to win this fight, but I think Ige will take this one distance. Kattar has won his first seven UFC fights and four have come by knockout, but Ige won't be an easy "out," as he comes in on top form from as far as being in shape right now, as this is his third fight since early February. The pick: I think Ige bides his time in the early rounds and doesn't push, instead waiting for an opportunity to score an upset after wearing Kattar down. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER 2.5 -134 Pinnacle Kattar/Ige. |
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06-20-20 | Marion Reneau v. Raquel Pennington -160 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 59 h 21 m | Show | |
The set-up: Raquel Pennington is 10-8 and Marion Reneau is 9-5-1. Pennington has split her last six fights and she comes off a loss to Holly Holm in January. Note that despite eight losses, Pennington only has been finished in two of those setbacks. Pennington has superior cardio and her striking game is vastly superior to Renau's. Renau has split her last six fights as well and enters off a March 2019 setback to Yana Kunitskaya. The pick: While Pennington's fight vs. Holm was highly competitive, Renau was massacred in her loss. Note that Renau is 43 and Pennington is 32. Age is the final deciding factor for me in this matchup and all things considered, I think this line could/should in fact be much larger. Lay it with confidence. 8* DESTRUCTION on Raquel Pennington. |
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05-30-20 | Gilbert Burns v. Tyron Woodley -160 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -160 | 279 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Yes the last three UFC main events have seen the underdog come out on top, but I believe that Gilbert Burns' current five-fight win streak comes to an end here vs. Tyron Woodley, the fomer champion. Woodley was last in action in UFC 235 where he was soundly thumped in an unanimous decision vs. Kamaru Usman. Usman still holds that title and if Woodley wants a shot at a rematch, he'll need to focus on Burns here. Burns is clearly no push over, but Woodley is a huge step up in competition here in my opinion. The pick: Burns enters off a first-round KO of Demian Maia just two months ago, but Woodley has a sizeable advantage here with a three-inch reach advantage. And while Burns would love to take this to the ground, note that Woodley is incredibly adept at guarding vs. the takedown, as only eight percent of takedown attempts in the UFC have been successful against him. I like the ex-champ to step up here and to finally break this trend of underdogs winning in the main event. Lay it. 8* DESTRUCTION on Tyron Woodley. |
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05-16-20 | Alistair Overeem v. Walt Harris -156 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -156 | 153 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: Alistair Overeem is 45-18-0 and the 39 year old weighs 265 pounds. Walt Harris is 13-7-0 in the UFC and the 36 year old weighs 250 pounds. Harris comes off a Round 1 win over Aleksei Oleinik, while Overeem lost by TKO in the fifth round to Jairzinho Rozenstruik. The pick: Both fighters are similar in some respect, but I think Harris' power will be too much for Overeem to overcome here. Great that the veteran stepped up to take this fight, but I think the younger and hungrier fighter delivers the goods. I'll lay this reasonable mid-sized price as I expect hard-hitting Harris to get the job done. 10* UFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Walt Harris. |
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05-13-20 | Anthony Smith -155 v. Glover Teixeira | 0-1 | Loss | -155 | 81 h 9 m | Show | |
The set-up: Anthony "Lionheart" Smith is 32-14-0 and is 31 years old, while Glover Texeira is 30-7-0 and 40 years old. Smith beat Alexander Gustafsson by rear naked choke last time out. Glover Texeira is coming off a win as well, getting the better of Nikita Krylov. The pick: Smith has three inches of reach on his opponent and I believe the younger fighter will ultimately use this major advantage, to his advantage. Lay the price with confidence. 8* play on Anthony Smith. |
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05-13-20 | Ben Rothwell +130 v. Ovince St. Preux | 1-0 | Win | 130 | 81 h 39 m | Show | |
The set-up: Ovince Saint Preux is 24-13 and Ben Rothwell is 37-12. St. Preux is making the jump up to heavyweight for this fight, most of the time fighting in light heavyweight. He most recently snapped a two-fight losing streak with a win over Michal Oleksijczuk. The pick: Rothwell is coming off a win as well, knocking out Stefan Struve. This is a big fight for both fighters, but I like Rothwell, a natural heavyweight, to continue his progression with another quality win here. Great value play in my opinion. 8* play on Ben Rothwell. |
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05-13-20 | Ray Borg v. Ricky Simon -165 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 79 h 30 m | Show | |
The set-up: Ricky Simon is 15-3, but he's split his last four fights. After a loss to Rob Font in December, I think Simon is going to dig deep into his bag of tricks and find a way to get the job done vs. Ray Borg. Simon is the superior athlete and his ground and pound is by far superior. The pick: Borg is 13-4 and he's also split his last four fights, most recently beating Rogerio Bontorin in February. Borg has interestingly missed weight in four of his last eight fights, which brings into question his focus at times. Simon also has a six inch reach over Borg. All things considered, I believe this price could/should be much higher. Lay it. 8* play on Ricky Simon. |
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05-10-20 | Justin Gaethje +155 v. Tony Ferguson | Top | 1-0 | Win | 155 | 280 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: I'm taking three underdogs in UFC 249. That includes in the main fight of the night between Justin Gaethje and Tony Ferguson. This is for the UFC Interim Lightweight Championship. Gaethje is 21-2 and he's won ten of his last 12 fights. Gaethje most recently beat Donald Cerrone. In fact, it was Gaethje's third first round knock out in a row. Ferguson is 25-3 and he's won 12 fights in a row. Ferguson also most recently beat Donald Cerrone, back in June. The pick: This is a letdown spot for Ferguson though, who was scheduled to fight Khabib originally, but a combination of injury delay and now the virus has him now facing the hungry and red hot Gaethje. With nothing to lose, I like the underdog to deliver the goods in this tite match. 10* play on Justin Gaethje. |