Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-23-21 | Warriors +7 v. Jazz | Top | 108-127 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The Warriors are 8-7 and are coming off a loss to the Knicks on Thursday night. Previous to that GS beat the Lakers in a thriller on the road, followed by a solid victory over the Spurs at home. The Warriors have been better than most likely thought they'd have been without Klay Thompson in the lineup. Steph Curry and this potent Warriors line-up is going to be able to push this tough Jazz defense to the brink in my opinion. The pick: The Jazz have covered in seven straight, but Golden State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after scoring 105 points or less in a SU/ATS home loss in its last outing. I expect Golden State to come in focussed and while the outright is possible, let's grab the points. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Golden State Warriors. |
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01-23-21 | Valparaiso +2 v. Illinois State | Top | 69-60 | Win | 100 | 25 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: Valparaiso is 3-9, while Illinois State is 5-8. Valparaiso comes in hungry to snap a five-game losing streak. OVerall the Crusaders are averaging 71.5 PPG, while conceding 67.5. The pick: The Redbirds have lost five of their last seven. Overall Illinois State is averaging 76 PPG, while allowing 76.8. Illinois State's issues on the defensive end are going to be the issue here for it. Look for Valparaiso to pull away for the comfortable cover in the second half. This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Valpo. |
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01-21-21 | Knicks +5.5 v. Warriors | Top | 119-104 | Win | 100 | 16 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The Knicks have had two days off to prepare for this one, and they also play in Sacramento tomorrow night. I look for New York to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish here as it takes advantage of a Warriors team that enters off a highly satisfying 121-99 win at home over the Spurs just last night. The pick: Both teams have been better than most expected this year. The Knicks have been the league's punching bag for years, but they aren't a complete pushover this season. The Knicks are off a 91-84 win over Orlando and note that they're 7-2 ATS in their last nine after holding their previous opponent to 85 or fewer points in a SU/ATS victory. A great situational play in my opinion and while the outright victory isn't out of the question, in the end, I'll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH on the Knicks. |
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01-21-21 | Wichita State v. Memphis -2.5 | Top | 52-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: I think Wichita State comes in complacent here after its 19 points win at home over Tulsa, moving it to 8-3. Memphis is 6-3, and it'll be eager to return to form here after losing by one point to Tulsa on the road. The Shockers have covered the spread in all four of their road games this year, but I think that now swings the value to the home side here, as oddsmakers over compenstate in my opinion. The pick: Both teams are decent defensively, and overall they're evenly matched. But the Tigers are the hungrier team here and note that they're 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games after scoring 60 or less points in a SU/ATS road loss in their previous outing. This one has "letdown" written all over it for the Shockers in my opinion. Lay the short points. This is a 10* BLOWOUT ELITE OF THE ELITE on Memphis. |
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01-20-21 | Nets v. Cavs +10 | Top | 135-147 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: This is expected to be the return of Kyrie Irving to the Nets line-up after he missed seven games due to personal reasons. Jarrett Allen and Taurean Prince face off against their former team after being dealt to the Cavs in the Harden deal. The Cavaliers are 6-7, most recently coming off a gritty 106-103 win over the Knicks. The Cavaliers are the best defensive team in the league, allowing just 103.9 PPG, and I think they're going to bring their "A" game tonight as they look to pull off the outright upset. The pick: Brooklyn looks really good, but I think consistency against weaker teams is going to be an issue for it this year. Irving is a distraction at this moment, not a benefit. I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, but everything points this one being a lot closer than what this spread would suggest in my opinion. So grab the points! This is a 10* UNDERDOG ULTIMATE BLOWOUT on the Cavaliers. |
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01-20-21 | Rhode Island v. Duquesne +5.5 | Top | 69-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Duquesne is the "hungrier" team in this matchup after back-to-back losses. The Rams have won two of their last three. The Rams are averaging 74.5 PPG this year, but note that they're a poor 1-4 on the road this season. Duquesne is only averaging 62.8 PPG this year, but note that Dukes are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games after back-to-back SU/ATS losses. The pick: This is also a revenge game for the Dukes after the Rams blew them out in this game last year. The Rams' terrible play on the road is a very real factor here and while I do think the outright win is possible, in the end I'll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Duquesne. |
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01-19-21 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 102-118 | Loss | -104 | 29 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: New Orleans finally broke a five-game slide with a 128-123 win at Sacramento in its last game. The Pelicans got 31 points from Zion Williamson, while Brandon Ingram added 22. Eric Bledsoe was also big with 21 points. Now New Orleans is in Utah for two straight, as these teams will play here again on Thursday night. This is their first game against each other this season. Last year the Jazz took three of four, but all were pretty competitive, including in Utah's 106-104 win back on July 30th of 2020 in the final one there. The pick: The Jazz lost 112-100 at the Knicks back on January 6th and they haven't lost since, not only winning five in a row, but also covering in five straight. So now I think public perception here has pushed up this line on the home side after its recent win streak, and I think the value has now swung to this hungry underdog team. Williamson is finally starting to his stride, so I expect him to build off his latest game and at the very least, take the Jazz down to the wire. This one definitely sets up well for the visiting side. The is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on New Orleans. |
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01-19-21 | Duke -3 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 73-79 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Duke is off a 74-67 loss at Virginia Tech in its latest action. It was the Blue Devils first conference loss. A couple of bright spots in defeat were Jeremy Roach, who had 22 points, and Matthew Hurt, who added 20 points and 11 rebounds. That was only the Blue Devils second road game of the year, and they looked shaky, going just 8 of 29 from 3-point range. But now the Blue Devils come to Pittsburgh focussed and hungry to bounce back. The pick: The Panthers enter having won six of their last seven, including two straight, most recently the 96-76 home beating of Syracuse as a four-point dog. Pittsburgh's been playing well of late, but the Blue Devils have done well in this matchup for years, going 8-2 the last ten in the series straight up. That included a 79-67 home win last year. Duke isn't the same Duke team as in year's past, and Pittsburgh is playing really well at the moment, but I think that off the loss to the Hokies, that the correct call in this matchup is for Duke to bounce back. The is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Duke. |
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01-18-21 | St. John's +10.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 74-70 | Win | 100 | 25 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: UConn has only played eight games this year, while most other teams have played closer to 14. The Huskies are also without three of their guards due to injury issues. St. John's is averaging 79 PPG, while allowing 78.5. The Huskies have averages 73.13 PPG, while allowing 61.75. The pick: UConn's only loss this year was a 76-74 setback to Creighton. Are the Huskies the better team here? Yes. But the lack of overall play has hampered them overall this year. St. John's has the offense to compete with any team in the nation and I expect it to give the home side everything it can handle today. Probably no outright, but much closer than expected. Grab the points. The is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on St. John's. |
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01-17-21 | Memphis +1 v. Tulsa | Top | 57-58 | Push | 0 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: Memphis hasn't played since December 29th, when it beat USF by a score of 58-57. Tulsa is the perfect opponent to get warmed up against, as it's now 7-4 after getting destroyed 72-53 to Wichita State as a 3.5 point dog on Wednesday. This is a revenge game for the Tigers as well after Tulsa scored the 56-49 upset road victory last year. Memphis averages 72.1 PPG, while allowing 64.1. The pick: Tulsa's offense is poor, averaging only 68.7 PPG, while it concedes 61.3. Look for the longer layoff to in fact help here in the final stages of the regular season and expect Memphis to exact its revenge from last year's upset at home. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Memphis. |
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01-15-21 | Green Bay v. Detroit -3 | Top | 61-86 | Win | 100 | 28 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Green Bay started off the season 0-9, but it comes to town having won three straight. Suffice it to say, I expect the Phoenix to finally stumble here after three wins in a row. Most recently Green Bay posted an 87-78 victory over Oakland. Detroit's been off since December 27th, when it lost to Oakland 83-80 as a 1-point favorite to fall to 1-7 overall. The Phoenix have covered or pushed in six straight games, and I can't see that streak continuing here vs. this ultra hungry Mercy side. The pick: Detroit is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine after allowing 80 or more points in a SU/ATS loss in its last outing. The Titans have failed to cover in four straight, but the extra time off will be beneficial here in my opinion. This is the first of two games, and I like the "hungrier" home side to risk life and limb here to defend its turf and to pull away down the stretch. Lay the points. This is a 10* HORIZON LEAGUE GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit. |
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01-13-21 | La Salle v. George Mason -3 | Top | 42-75 | Win | 100 | 26 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: George Mason has lost three straight to fall to 5-5 on the year. La Salle had its game against Fordham cancelled, then it most recently lost to UMass. The Explorers are oly averaging 67.6 PPG this year, as La Salle does not have a single player averaging in double-figures this season. The pick: The Patriots have struggled with consistency as well, but they have two players averaging in double figures (keep your eyes on Jordan Miller, who is averaging 15.1 PPG for George Mason). Finally note that the Patriots are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a double-digit home loss. Home court advantage can't be overlooked either. I'm laying the points and expecting a decisive home side victory. This is a 10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on George Mason. |
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01-12-21 | Pacers v. Warriors +1 | Top | 104-95 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Indianapolis has a game in Sacramento against a desperate Kings team on Monday and I suspect that the Pacers will have their hands full with Sacramento, as it entered that one having lost two in a row and four of its last five. So from a situational standpoint alone, I absolutely feel this sets up great for Stephen Curry and the Warriors. Golden State has been better than most predicted I think. Especially after the first couple of games, as it appeared as if the Warriors would once again be a terrible team without Klay Thompson in the line-up. But that's obviously not the case, as Curry has been excellent and the younger pieces around him are definitely playing a lot better after that first awkward week. The pick: Curry had a 62 point game last week and while he was just 2 of 16 for 11 points vs. the Raptors in his last outing, Golden State still dug deep and pulled out the 106-105 victory. Toronto was desperate in that game as well to break out of its early season struggles, so the fact that the Warriors won that game despite Curry having such a poor performance I think speaks volumse to the current level that the Warriors are playing at right now. I believe the Pacers lay everything on the line to try and secure the victory against the weaker Kings on Monday night, and then I look for them to come out fatigued on Tuesday against this red hot Warriors side. This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE BEST OF THE BEST on Golden State. |
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01-12-21 | Wisconsin +3.5 v. Michigan | Top | 54-77 | Loss | -101 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: I like Wisconsin the underdog here, I think it sets up well for it to keep this one close down the stretch. Michigan has won and covered in four straight. In fact it's 10-0 straight up and 8-2 against the spread. Most recently the Wolverines pulled away for an 82-57 win at home over Minnesota. After this game, Michigan has the rematch with the Gophers in Minnesota this weekend, so it does in a small way set up as a look ahead spot for the home side. Wisconsin has been playing well this year also, it's 10-2 straight-up, but so far it hasn't been as kind to bettors, going just 5-6-1 against the spread. It's actually been trading wins and losses against the spread over its last six games, and while it did win 80-73 in overtime against the Hoosiers in its last outing it didn't cover the nine-point spread. So this pattern continues here, I like the Badgers to bounce back and get a cover here now as well. The pick: These teams last played just before the Pandemic hit in February 2020 and the Badgers managed the 81-74 outright upset in that one. I'll stop short in calling for an outright upset here , but in my opinion, I think everything points to a really tight game. This is a 10* BLOWOUT ELITE OF THE ELITE on Wisconsin. |
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01-11-21 | Pacers v. Kings +4.5 | Top | 122-127 | Win | 100 | 30 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: These two non-conference opponents enter this game on other ends of the spectrum right now. Indiana has been doing well and Sacramento has been struggling. Indiana though had a two-game win streak snapped last time out in a 125-117 setback to the Suns. The Pacers had played five of their previous six at home and now they hit the road for an extended road swing, including a more high-profile game in Golden State tomorrow night. This absolutely (in my opinion anyways), sets up as a classic "letdown/look-ahead" spot for the visiting side. The pick: Conversely, the Kings come in desperate to break their recent shoddy play which has seen them drop five of their last six, including five in a row ATS. As mentioned off the top, this is what I believe to be a fanastic "situational" play and while the outright win isn't out of the question obviously, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Sacramento Kings. |
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01-10-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Indiana State +7.5 | Top | 71-76 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: I like the 3-6 Sycamores to fight hard and to comfortably sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch. Loyola is 7-2 and it's won four straight, but winning can breed complacency. Indiana State is for sure the "hungrier" dog in this fight, as it's lost four straight. Twice to Drake and twice to Missouri State. The pick: The Ramblers only scored 57 points in their last game against North Texas and I think they'll have their hands full here against a Sycamore's team that's 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. I think this one sets up great for Indiana State in a number of ways. I'm grabbing the points for sure. This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana State. |
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01-09-21 | USC v. Arizona State +3.5 | Top | 73-64 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Sun Devils hadn't played in three weeks in their 81-75 loss to UCLA in their last game. I think they'll bounce back here though vs. the Trojans, who beat Arizona 87-73 in their latest action. The pick: ASU comes in fresh here, despite the loss last time out. It's the "hungrier" does in this fight as well. With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers think these teams are evenly matched, but I think from a situational stand point, it favors the home side. Additionally note that the Trojans are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after scoring 86 or more points in SU/ATS conference victory in their last outing. While I obviously wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* PAC 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on ASU. |
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01-08-21 | Hornets v. Pelicans -5.5 | Top | 118-110 | Loss | -117 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams are similar in a lot of respects. Their young, and their both hungry to prove themselves and to come out here and get a victory, but I think this is a matchup which favors New Orleans. After back-to-back victories, the Pelicans come in having lost two straight. Both losses though they were very competitive in, falling 118-116 in overtime at home to the red hot Pacers, before then losing 111-110 at home to Oklahoma City. This is an important game for New Orleans though, as after this it hits the road for seven straight road games against some really stiff competition, including the Mavericks, the Clippers, the Lakers and the Jazz. At 4-4, and off two straight losses, and just before a gruelling road trip, I'd call this a "must win" scenario almost for New Orleans. The pick: Who knows what type of effort you're going to get from the Hornets from night-to-night though. And especially on the road. And especially after they finall broke a three-game slide with a 102-94 win at Atlanta in their last game. And with a rematch at home against the Hawks tomorrow night, this also DEFINITELY sets up as a classic "look ahead" spot for the visiting side. So as I said off the top, I think this one sets up great from a situational stand point for the Pelicans, who I believe will risk life and limb today to not only secure the straight up victory, but also a solid against the spread one. This is a 10* BLOWOUT ELITE OF THE ELITE on the New Orleans Pelicans. |
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01-08-21 | North Texas v. Texas-San Antonio +6 | Top | 77-70 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: After winning three of its last four to return to .500, I think that UNT has a letdown here. Both teams have plenty of issues on both sides of the court. UNT has a decent defense that's conceding 63.5 PPG. UTSA though enters as the hungrier dog in this fight after back-to-back losses to Rice dropped it to 4-5. The pick: The Roadrunners have struggled defensively, but that unit catches a big break today facing the poor offense of UNT. This is the first game of two straight here and I think the desperate home side is the correct call. I think the Roadrunners high-tempo offense keeps them competitive late and while I wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* CONF. USA GAME OF THE YEAR on UTSA. |
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01-07-21 | Cincinnati +6 v. SMU | Top | 76-69 | Win | 100 | 27 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: I like betting on teams which are "hungry" or "desperate." Cincinnati fits that bill perfectly here. The Bearcats are 2-6 overall and 0-3 in conference play. Most recently the fell 70-63 to Tulsa. SMU is 6-1 overall and 2-1 in league play, but that one loss came in their last outing, falling 74-60 to Houston. Here's a great spot for Cincinnati to take advantage of, as I think playing against teams which have been on an extended win streak, and which are coming off their first loss in a long stretch, are at times perfectly primed for another letdown in their next game immediately after that scenario plays out. The pick: Note as well that the Mustangs are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after a SU/ATS loss of ten or more points, while the Bearcats are 7-3 ATS in their last ten conference road games after three or more SU losses in a row. Grab the points for sure, but don't be shocked for an outright! This is a 10* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati. |
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01-06-21 | Utah State v. New Mexico +13 | Top | 77-45 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Utah State is the better teams, but New Mexico is by far the "hungrier" team in this matchup after dropping each of its first four Mountain West contests. Utah State comes in complacent here vs. its lowly opponent after winning six in a row. This is the start of three straight games in a row vs. each other, which also puts added incentive onto the home side to try and avoid getting swept in this series. The pick: New Mexico won its first three games, then dropped four. But I'll point out that the Lobos four losses cam against Nevada and Boise State, two teams with a combined 16-4 record right now. Utah State on the other hand has played suspect competition to this point, so its numbers are skewed. The underdog is also 4-1 ATS the last five in this series, while the home side is 10-2 ATS the last 12 between these schools. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. This is a 10* MOUNTAIN WEST GAME OF THE MONTH on the New Mexico Lobos. |
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01-05-21 | Kansas v. TCU +5 | Top | 93-64 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: I just played against the Longhorns after their upset win over KU, and now I'm also going to suggest a play against the Jayhawks here in this contest, as I believe they'll still be mentally caught up on their last poor effort. TCU has been great, 9-2 overall and it plays with revenge at home. The pick: Note as well that the Horned Frogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. These teams are moving in opposite directions and I expect those trends to continue here. While the outright is possible, I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* play on TCU. |
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01-05-21 | Jazz v. Nets -3 | Top | 96-130 | Win | 100 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: No Kevin Durant? No problem! The Nets are floundering right now and I think the rest of the teams steps up and answers the call here at home finally without KD in the line-up. The Jazz have been playing a bit better, but they're definitely inconsistent and thin after Mitchell and Gobert. The pick: Brooklyn is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after four or more SU/ATS losses. Utah is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 road games after scoring 130 or more points in a SU/ATS victory (won 130-108 over the Spurs.) Bank on the desperate home side pulling away down the stretch. This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE BLOWOUT OF THE YEAR on the Brooklyn Nets. |
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01-04-21 | Winthrop v. Charleston Southern +14 | Top | 85-69 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Winning can lead to complacency. Especially among young players. Winthrop has jumped out to a big 7-0 start, but I believe it'll finally get caught flat-footed here and leave the door open just wide enough for the hungry home side to sneak in through down the stretch. The Buccanneers are only 1-5. The Eagles are perfect so far, but there have been a few very close calls. The pick: Charleston Southern has been competitive in defeat and it won't be lacking for motivation today. This is a revenge game as well. One player to keep your eyes on tonight for Charleston Southern is Phlandrous Fleming, who managed 19 points with 10 rebounds and three assists in his team's most recent setack to Hampton on December 22nd. Winthrop is the better team, but the overall situation sets up well for the home side. I'm not predicting an outright, but I do think the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points. This is a 10* BIG SOUTH GAME OF THE YEAR on Charleston Southern. |
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01-03-21 | Wizards v. Nets -8.5 | Top | 123-122 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: Washington finally broke into the win column over the Timberwolves last time out, but I expect an immediate return to mediocrity here. The Nets started 2-0, but they've since gone 1-3. They've rested starters and had to deal with some COVID issues over the last week, but they're ready to roll tonight and I expect this high-powered team to lay the hammer down after this scuffling stretch. The pick: Russell Westbrook is out again for Washington, which isn't a good thing at all for the Wizards over the short or the long-term. Brooklyn has posted at least 118 points in its last five vs. this Wizards defense, and I expect an even bigger offensive explosion here. The Wizards are a poor 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven as a road dog and I like the home side to take advantage of that. Lay the points. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the Brooklyn Nets. |
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01-03-21 | Southern Illinois +11.5 v. Drake | Top | 55-73 | Loss | -106 | 25 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Drake is 11-0, but it hasn't played since before the New Year and I think it'll come out a bit flat here and look past its lowly opponent. Drake beat Indiana State in back-to-back games most recently, while the Salukis enter off their first loss of the season 84-72 to Evansville. Southern Illinois has six players which average at least 7.9 PPG, led by Marcus Domask with 18.1 per contest. The pick: Drake was down at the half in each of its games vs. the Sycamores, only to come back and not only win, but also go on to cover. The Bulldogs perfect record to this point puts a big red target on their backs - look for this under the radar Salukis side to keep this one much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. This is a 10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR on Southern Illinois. |
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01-01-21 | Jacksonville -3.5 v. Kennesaw State | Top | 62-57 | Win | 100 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Jacksonville is 6-4 and Kennesaw State is 3-5. Jacksonville has played the stiffer competitoin to this point, most recently coming off a 70-46 loss to K-State. Corey Romich was a bright spot in defeat with ten points and five boards. The pick: Kennesaw State has lost three in a row, most recently an 81-71 setback to Mercer. These teams numbers are similar, but Jacksonville has faced the better competition and note that it's 7-2 ATS in its last nine road game after failing to score 50 points in a SU/ATS loss in its last outing. I'm laying the short points. This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Jacksonville. |
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12-31-20 | Boise State v. San Jose State +20.5 | Top | 106-54 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: Is Boise State the better team? It's 6-1, so of course it is. San Jose State is just 1-4. Am I suggesting that you play the Spartans on the moneyline? Of course I'm not, I'm suggesting that you grab all these points, because from a situational standpoint, this one sets up brilliantly for the underdog in my opinion. The pick: Boise State enters off an 89-52 win over New Mexico, and note that it's just 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games after a 30 points or greater SU/ATS victory. San Jose State enters off an 85-52 loss at Utah State, and note that it's 8-4 ATS in its last 12 home games after a 30 points or greater SU/ATS road loss. This is the first game of a two-game set between the teams, with the other coming on January 3rd. Look for the Spartans to keep this one competitive until the end. Grab the points. This is a 10* UNDERDOG ULTIMATE BLOWOUT on San Jose State. |
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12-31-20 | Knicks v. Raptors -9 | Top | 83-100 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: The Knicks come in off back-to-back wins, hammering the Bucks at home, and then beating the Cavaliers by nine points on the raod as an underdog. The Raptors on the other hand enter absolutely desperate to reverse their fortunes after starting the season 0-3. Let's face it, Toronto isn't going to be the top team in the East this year. Or for a while. The Raptors are rebuilding and the faster the fan base realizes that, the better off they'll be mentally (I'm from Canada originally, so I hear it a lot about the Raptors.) The pick: One mistake that many novice bettors makes is to "overreact" at the start of the season. And that's the case here. Yes, Toronto is going to have many issues moving forward for a while, but it's still loaded with talent and after the poor start to the season, I'm expect to see the Raptors best effort so far here tonight. With games at Indiana and Atlanta upcoming, I think the young Knicks get caught looking ahead as well. Look for Toronto to go up early, keep the foot on the gas throughout and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. This is a 10* BULLDOZER on the Toronto Raptors. |
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12-30-20 | Lakers v. Spurs +6 | Top | 121-107 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: So here's an interesting matchup between two teams which have gotten out to decent early starts. The Spurs are 2-1, and they've gone 3-0 against the spread. The Lakers had the game vs. Portland on Monday, but now the defending champs hit the road to play two games at San Antonio, including another one on New Year's Day. The NBA will do that a lot this year of course, having teams play back-to-back in the same arena, as to cut down the travel time and potential exposure to COVID 19. We've only played a few games into the season, so it's a little difficult to get firm reads on every team at this point. Obviously we know the Lakers are good and they're going to be contending for another Championship at the end, more than likely anyways. The pick: The Spurs though weren't given much of a chance by the bookmakers befor the season started, but as I've pointed out, they've gotten out to the decent start to the season, going 2-1 straight up and perfect against the spread. The Lakers are going to have a big red target on their back now every night, even more than they did before they actually won the Championship, so they're going to get each team's best effort almost every given night. And I do think the Spurs come to play here. Note as well that San Antonio is 7-2 against the spread in its last nine after two or more whole nights of rest in between games. I think the home side will at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably cover with the handful of points it's been afforded. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the San Antonio Spurs. |
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12-30-20 | Murray State +4 v. Belmont | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Murray State is 4-3 and 1-1 in the OVC, while Belmont is 8-1 and 2-0. These two teams dominate this conference. These teams have both won the conference championship over the last two years. The Racers have lost all three true road games they've played, and with six of their first seven OVC contests away from friendly confines, today's road game definitely takes on added importance for Murray State. The pick: Belmont comes in off a 72-63 win over Evansville, but note that it's just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after three or more SU victories in a row. These teams are evenly matched for sure, but I like the "hungrier" dog in this fight. A great situational play on Murray State. This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Murray State. |
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12-29-20 | Knicks +3.5 v. Cavs | Top | 95-86 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: New York is 1-2. The Knicks come to town confident after their 130-110 blowout destruction of the Bucks on the 27th. Cleveland is inexplicably 3-0 to start the year. Most recently the Cavaliers destroyed Philadelphia 118-94. Cleveland has plenty of young and hungry talent, but I think its early record is more a case of team's not taking the Cavs too seriously right now and looking past their opponent. And that's not going to happen with the Knicks. New York doesn't face too many teams in the season that's on the "same level" as it, so this is a golden opportunity to try and string a couple wins in a row. The pick: The Cavs have a night off after this, before then embarking on a six-game road trip starting on New Year's Eve in Indianapolis. You can throw the ATS stats out the window in this one. As primarily a situational handicapper, I do indeed feel this one sets up extremely well for the hungry underdog visiting side. Clearly the outright win is a possibility, but in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the New York Knicks. |
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12-28-20 | Rockets v. Nuggets -7.5 | Top | 111-124 | Win | 100 | 28 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the Rockets will fall to 0-2 here after losing 128-126 to the Blazers in OT to open the season. The Nuggets come in ready to now turn the page after starting 0-2, losing in OT to the Kings, before then falling to the Clippers at home in their last one. With a series of difficult road contests upcoming, I look for the Nuggets to come out extremely focussed here. The Rockets are still dealing with several issues on and off the court (COVID mostly), and I expect them to struggle in this difficult road venue and versus this now very hungry home side. The pick: Note that Denver has performed very well in this spot for bettors as well, going 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 as a home favorite and 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU loss of more than ten points, while Houston is 0-4 ATS in its last four when playing on one days rest. Houston doesn't have a big man to handle the Nuggets' size and that's going to be a big difference-maker today as well. Lay the points. This is a 10* ATS 'BLOOD-BATH' on the Denver Nuggets. |
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12-28-20 | Drake v. Indiana State +3.5 | Top | 73-66 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the second game of a back-to-back between the teams. Last night Drake won its ninth straight (both SU and ATS) vs. the Sycamores by a score of 81-63. The Bulldogs are the better team on paper here, averaging 86.4 PPG and allowing 60. Indiana State only trailed by one at half-time, but a slow start to the second-half doomed the Sycamores after that. I actually had a play on Indiana State yesterday afternoon, and while that big play failed to deliver, I'm back on the Sycamores here in this bounce-back position. The pick: Previous to the loss to the Bulldogs, Indiana State had won two in a row. It averages 69.4 PPG and it allows 69.2. All good things do come to an end though and with a few days off before a January 3rd home and home set vs. the lowly Southern Illinois Salukis, I think the stage is now set for Drake to finally have a mental lapse here. The Sycamores are definitely the more motivated side here and I think they can keep this one competitive not only for just the first half this time, but for the entire game. Grab the points, expect a "nail-biter!" This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana State. |
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12-27-20 | Mavs +5.5 v. Clippers | Top | 124-73 | Win | 100 | 24 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: One of the biggest mistakes that novice gamblers can make is "overreacting" to Week 1 results, or after the first few games of the regular season. Are the Mavericks as bad as their 0-2 record would indicate in the early going? Obviously not. Does the Clippers 2-0 record mean that they're now the team to beat in the West? Probably, but again, let's not overreact after a couple of games. LA had two "revenge" games on its plate right out of the gate this year, beating the Lakers on Opening Night, and then beating the Nuggets in Denver on Thursday, avenging the playoff series loss. However, with those two very emotional contests out of the way and now back to play their first official "home" game, I think the Clippers come out flat here. The pick: And that's going to be bad news vs. Luca Doncic and the winless Mavericks in my opinion. Both teams are loaded with talent, but I think this one sets up fantastically from a situational stand point for Dallas and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, all signs do indeed point to this one coming right down to the wire. Grab the points. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the Dallas Mavericks. |
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12-27-20 | Drake v. Indiana State +4 | Top | 81-63 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Drake is 9-0 and 7-0 ATS. They say all good things have to come to an end, and I think that time is now for Drake. Overall it averages 86.4 PPG, while allowing 60.0. On paper, obviously Drake is the better team. Indiana State is 3-2, averaging 69.2 PPG and conceding 69.4. As I said, on paper, clearly Drake is the better team. The pick: Indiana State though won't be rolling over here. Note that it's 3-0 SU at home. Drake's early competition needs to be called into question here as well, as it enters off an 88-55 win over lowly North Dakota. Note that this is a back-to-back set as well, with each team playing here again tomorrow. I'll point out though that the Sycamores are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games as an underdog in the +2.5 to +5.5 points range. In a contest which I see coming right down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points in what I feel to be a prime situational spot wagering position for the home side. This is a 10* MISSOURI VALLEY GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana State. |
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12-26-20 | Pacers v. Bulls +4.5 | Top | 125-106 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Indiana went 3-0 in the preseason and it won its season opener, albeit over the Knicks. Now it hits the road and I think it'll finally have a letdown here. Chicago won its final three preseason games, but unlike its opponent today, it got destroyed in its opening game and because of that, I like the Bulls to play with much more heart today. The pick: This is a classic "look-ahead" spot for the Pacers as well, as they have a back-to-back set at home against the Celtics starting tomorrow night. And to say this is a "revenge" game would be a bit of an understatement, as Chicago lost all four games in this series last year. I think the outright is possible, but in a contest which I see coming down to whichever of these team's has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points. This is a 10* SUPER-SHOCKER on the Chicago Bulls. |
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12-26-20 | Green Bay +17.5 v. Wright State | Top | 53-67 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The Phoenix are winless on the year and they come in hungry after a 74-62 loss to Milwaukee in their last game. The Raiders on the other hand look poised for a letdown here in my opinion after beating Detroit 85-72 last time out. Losing isn't fun, and after starting the season 0-6, I don't think we have to question the visiting sides motivation levels this evening. Overall Wisconsin has averaged 66.2 PPG and conceded 83. The pick: THe Raiders have won four straight, as they average 79.6 PPG and allow 67.2. Clearly Wright State is the better team, but I think that it gets caught complacent and I believe it'll take the foot off the gas in the second half as it looks ahead to its game against this very same team tomorrow night. Finally note that the Phoenix are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 conference road games as an underdog in the +15.5 to +17.5 points range. A few too many points to be giving up to this hungry visiting side that's desperate to break into the win column. I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on Wisconsin Green Bay. |
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12-25-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets +1 | Top | 121-108 | Loss | -105 | 41 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: This isn't the same Clippers team which blew a 3-1 series lead in the bubble last season to the Nuggets, as a few new faces are on the team, while others have moved on. Denver has also gone through some transition, but for the most part returns its main core of players, while also picking up a few nice pieces in the offseason. Should we overreact to the first game of the season? The Clippers beat the Lakers on Opening Night, while the Nuggets lost in OT at home to the Kings. Anything can happen on Opening Night, I think that Denver likely got caught looking past its lowly opponent to this more high-profile contest. The Clippers return home to play three-straight after this as well vs. the Mavericks, Wolves and Blazers, so this now sets up as a small look-ahead spot for LA. The pick: Denver has two whole nights off after this before a home game vs. Houston. Of course LA would love to revenge that series loss, but the second game of the regular season isn't the best place to prove a point. The Clippers were more excited and focused to beat the Lakers in my opinion, and couldn't care less about that series loss to Denver. This one means a lot more to the Nuggets than it does the Clippers, as they'll be desperate to avoid the 0-2 start at home. I'm grabbing the points, but expecting an outright. This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on the Denver Nuggets. |
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12-25-20 | Iowa v. Minnesota +6 | Top | 95-102 | Win | 100 | 38 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hawkeyes are 7-1, including a 70-55 win over Purdue last time out. The GOlden Gophers are 7-1 overall (0-1 in conference play though) and most recently coming off a 90-82 win over Saint Louis. The Hawkeyes are led by Luka Garza, who averages 28.4 points and 9.1 boards per game. Both teams allow roughly the same amount of points (Iowa concedes 70.6, while Minnesota allows 73.5), so let's call that deparment a "wash." The pick: Marcus Carr leads the charge for the Golden Gophers, he had 32 points in the win over the Billikens. Garza's an amazing player, but note that Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference home games as an underdog in the +5.5 to +8.5 points range. I like Carr and company to battle tough here as they look to pull off the upset at home on X-Mas Day, while avoiding the 0-2 conference hole to open the season. Grab the points. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Minnesota. |
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12-23-20 | Jazz +1.5 v. Blazers | Top | 120-100 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams were bounced in the first round of the playoffs last year. Utah has a great core around Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. THe Jazz gave up an average of 108.9 PPG last year, which was one of the best. The Jazz have gotten stronger in the offseason and note that they were No. 1 in the league in 3-point shooting percentage, hitting 38.5 percent from range. The pick: Portland is healthy and ready to go as well. The Blazers are an offense first team, as they're defense was among the worst in the league last year (allowed 116.2 PPG). Utah's defense is fresh and I think it'll slow down Portland's shooters and at the same time, I look for the visiting side to dictate the flow as well. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Utah Jazz. |
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12-23-20 | Providence v. Butler +1 | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The pick: This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Butler. |
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12-22-20 | Nebraska +18.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 53-67 | Win | 100 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: I'm looking at this game, looking at each teams' records, looking at what they did in their most recent matchup against each other, looking at what they did in their last games and leading up to this moment. I'm looking at each team's schedule to see who they play next. Wisconsin is great obviously, it's 6-1 overall and 6-0 at home. Nebraska is 4-3 overall and just 2-4 against the spread on the road, but I think there are some great situational and motivational factors working in favor of the Huskers here, and while I'm not going to call for an outright upset, I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. First off, Nebraska does play with revenge here after it lost 81-64 to Wisconsin in their last matchup back on February 15th, just before the Pandemic hit. This sets up as a look-ahead spot for Wisconsin as well, with a big nationally televised Christmas Day matchup at Michigan State. Nebraska lost to Creighton 98-74, but then it bounced back with a confidence-building 110-64 win over Doane in its most recent action. The pick: I'm primarily a situational or motivational handicapper, the actual players on the court or on the field usually don't even factor into my decision making process when handicapping, and for me, this particular contest definitely sets up well for Nebraska. I think Wisconsin comes in complacent, I think it gets caught looking ahead to its game vs. the Spartans, and I like Nebraska here in this revenge spot and getting the points. No outright, but closer than expected. This is a 10* UNDERDOG OF THE YEAR on Nebraska. |
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12-21-20 | Sacred Heart v. Wagner -5 | Top | 46-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Sacred Heart Pioneers are 1-2 and the Wagner Seahawks are 0-3. Sacred Heart bounced-back from a loss to LIU, to then beat LIU 87-72 in the rematch on Thursday. Wagner though has faced much stiffer competition in the early going, losing 78-45 to Seton Hall, and then falling twice to Bryant, 74-62 and 81-75. Wagner was led by 29 points and eight boards from Elijah Ford in the most recent setback and it's gotten progressively better with each outing this year, despite the win/loss record. The pick: Note as well that Wagner is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games after three or more SU losses in a row. Look for the Pioneers to once again struggle on the road here and look for the hungrier home side to pull away down the stretch. Lay the points and expect a blowout. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Wagner. |
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12-20-20 | Providence +3.5 v. Seton Hall | Top | 80-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Providence has won two straight. The Friars come in fresh as their last two games have been postponed due to COVID issues. In their last game they beat TCU 79-70 as one-point underdogs. Seton Hall comes in off a 70-63 win over Marquette. Providence is well-balanced, led by David Duke it averages 74.5 PPG and it concedes 70.3. The pick: The Pirates have won four in a row. Seton Hall is led by Sandro Mamukelasvhili, as the Pirates average 76.5 PPG and allow 70.3. These teams are very evenly matched, but I like the well-rested Friars to pull off the minor upset here (that said, grab as many points as you can!) This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Providence. |
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12-19-20 | Drexel v. Fairleigh Dickinson +4 | Top | 85-68 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: I like the 1-5 Fairleigh Dickinson Knights to pull off the minor upset in this one. Drexel comes in off a very satisfying 81-77 win over St. Joe's in its last outing and I think a predictable letdown is imminent here. Overall the Dragons average 68 PPG and they allow 63. The pick: The Knights come in with momentum, beting Central Connecticut State 79-71 for their first win of the year last time out. Fairleigh Dickinson is averaging 72 PPG and it's allowing 82.8. I'll point out though that Drexel is an extremely poor 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 on the road, while Fairleigh Dickinson is 6-2 ATS in its last eight against a team with a losing road record. The Knights have faced some stiff competition this yar (Rutgers, Providence) and they play better at home than on the road. And I think they're the much hungrier dog in this fight. Grab the points. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on Fairleigh Dickinson. |
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12-18-20 | Drake v. South Dakota +6.5 | Top | 75-57 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The 6-0 Drake Bulldogs come in complacent and caught flat vs. this hungry 1-5 South Dakota team in my opinion. The Bulldogs early numbers are skewed due to the level of competition they've faced (averaging 84 and conceding 60.2.) The Coyotes are averaging 68.7 PPG and allowing 76. The pick: Drake smashed Air Force 81-53 at home in its last outing, but with two straight "cream puffs" at home before the X-Mas Break (Chicago State and North Dakota), I think the Bulldogs get caught looking ahead here. South Dakota lost to Drake 69-53 in late November, so the "revenge factor" comes into play here as well. I like the hungry underdog home side to at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on South Dakota. |
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12-17-20 | St. Joe's +2 v. Drexel | Top | 77-81 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: St. Joes lost to Auburn in OT to open the season, and then it lost by 22 to Kansas immediatley after. The Hawks have had to deal with some COVID issues over the last couple of weeks, so they come in rested/focused and prepared. Drexel is 3-2 so far, but it's competition is suspect for sure. Last year the Dragons were 14-19. The Hawks have plenty of veteran talent, led by Taylor Funk and Ryan Daly. The pick: Saint Joseph's is being undervalued in this spot. Yes, we have more to draw upon from Drexel, but as mentioned above, its competition to this point has been far from difficult. The trend in the early going for CBB teams dealing with COVID issues is that they've struggled a bit, but I'm bucking that trend here. The Hawks have a deep and talented group and this is the perfect opponent to get untracked against. While the outright win is obviously in play here, I'll still recommend to grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* SLAM-DUNK on St. Joseph's. |
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12-16-20 | Montana +7.5 v. Washington | Top | 66-58 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The pick: This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Montana. |
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12-15-20 | Charlotte +12 v. Davidson | Top | 63-52 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: Outright victory? I'm not calling for that. But I do expect this one to be a lot closer than what this spread would suggest. Charlotte is 1-3 and Davidson is 3-2. The 49ers loss to Appalachian State last time out. Davidson comes in off victories over UNLV and Georgia Southern. The Wildcats have been competitive this year, but consistency from game-to-game has been a concern in the early going. Davidson is also just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after an ATS victory. The pick: Charlotte's win/loss record is not indicative of how it's played. It's gotten progressively better and more competitive with each outing, losing 66-57 to East Carolina, 76-65 to Georgia State, before then beating SC State 78-40, before then falling 61-58 to the Mountaineers last time out. Note that the 49ers are also 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 following a straight-up loss. No outright, but look for the hungrier 49ers to cmofortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Charlotte. |
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12-13-20 | Mercer v. Georgia Southern +5 | Top | 77-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Mercer is 5-0 and Georgia Southern is 3-1. After three straight wins, the Eagles lost to a tough Davidson team last time out. The Bears have looked sharp in the early going, but I think these teams are very evenly matched. The pick: Mercer has also played four smaller schools during its 5-0 start, so its numbers are skewed. I think the Bears take a step back in this difficult road venue and I look for the Eagles to bounce back after falling to Davidson and improve to 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a SU/ATS loss. Grab the points. This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Georgia Southern. |
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12-12-20 | La Salle +3 v. Drexel | Top | 58-48 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: La Salle is the "hungrier" dog in this fight at 1-3. So far in the early going the Explorers are averaging 63.8 points and allowing 67.3. Drexel has won three in a row and enters at 4-1, averaging 69.8 PPG and conceding 60.8. On paper, clearly Drexel is the better team. The pick: But I'll caution on reading too much into any of these numbers at this point. In a normal season, it's difficult to properly assess a team until after a full month is played. These teams are just starting their seasons and clearly the oddsmakers also believe they're very evenly matched with a spread like this. La Salle though is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after scoring 80 or more points in a victory in its last outing. Grab the points. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on La Salle. |
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12-11-20 | Marist +4.5 v. Canisius | Top | 72-81 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: Marist is 2-0, coming off two close victories and I expect another battle until the final horn tonight as well vs. the Golden Griffins. Last year the Red Foxes were just 7-23 and they lost to Canisius twice. This is Canisius's first game of the year and while it did beat Marist twice last season, it still only finished 12-20 overall. Marist returns key players from last year's team and a major improvement is expected. Keep your eyes on Michael Cubbage, who averaged 13.5 PPG last year. The pick: The Golden Griffins return key players as well, but I think that chemistry is going to be an issue. Marist has two games under its belt and I think that's crucial here. Marist is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine after two or more SU victories in a row. The outright is possible obviously, but grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Marist. |
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12-10-20 | UMKC v. Minnesota -18.5 | Top | 61-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: The Gophers are 5-0 straight-up, but they're only 1-3-1 ATS, failing to cover in three straight. I think that trend ends here in blowout fashion. UMKC is 2-2 so far, dropping its last two, most recently 62-58 to K-State. Minnesota enters off an 85-80 win over Boston College, getting 22 points from Marcus Carr. These teams aren't even close to being on the same level and there's no risk of the Gophers losing this game outright. Minnesota will win this game easily and I think also cover the spread at the same time as it looks to take advantage of this matchup, before tough upcoming games at Illinois and versus Iowa, Michigan State and Wisconsin. The pick: Minnesota is also 4-1 ATS in its last five after three straight ATS losses, while UMKC is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after scoring 60 points or less in a SU loss in its previous outing. The Gophers have one last chance to pad their stats before the meat of their schedule and I look for them to do just that. Lay the points. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Minnesota. |
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12-09-20 | California +5 v. Pepperdine | Top | 62-74 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: Cal is 2-3 and I think it's going to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire with the 2-2 Pepperdine Waves. Cal has lost to Oregon State, Arizona State and UCLA so far, while the Waves have lost to UCLA and SDSU. Both teams have struggled with stiffer competition and done well against the lower-tiered teams. The pick: The Waves were dominated in the second half in their loss to the Aztecs 45-26. Cal for the most part has been very competitive this year. The Golden Bears have responded well in this spot for bettors over the years though, as they're 12-4 ATS in their last 15 after scoring 58 points or less in a SU/ATS loss in their last outing. There's only a handful of games left for these teams in the regular season and I just don't see a very big talent gap whatsoever between these clubs. I think it'll come down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last and in a situation like that, I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Cal. |
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12-08-20 | Cal-Irvine +11 v. USC | Top | 56-91 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: USC is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. With Stanford coming to town this weekend, I think the Trojans take the foot off the gas in the second half and I like the 1-2 SU UC Irvine Anteaters to take advantage. USC comes in off its first loss of the year, a 61-58 setback to UConn, while UC Irvine enters off its first win of the year, a 104-54 win over La Sierra. The pick: USC is winning by an average margin of 11.2 PPG this year, but it's also just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after scoring 60 points or less in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. Look for the hungry Anteaters to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This is a 10* $UPER-$HOCKER on UC Irvine. |
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12-07-20 | Florida Atlantic v. North Florida +3.5 | Top | 79-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: FAU is 2-2 and North Florida is 0-5. The Owls are coming off back-to-back victories, but I think they finally stumble here vs. this desperate Ospreys side. In the early going FAU is averaging 81.8 PPG and allowing 58.3. This is in large part due to the level of its early competition though obviously. The pick: The Ospreys average 61.8 PPG and they allow 82.8. UNF has faced some decent competition out of the gate, but after four-straight on the road and one neutral site game, a little home-cooking is just what the doctor ordered for the Ospreys. With a week off before another game at Stetson, I think FAU gets caught looking ahead and flat-footed here. I'm grabbing the points, but would not be shocked by the outright victory. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on North Florida. |
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12-06-20 | Kentucky v. Georgia Tech +6.5 | Top | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Kentucky is 1-2 and Georgia Tech is 0-2. Last year Kentucky won this game 67-53, setting this up as a revenge spot for the home side. The Wildcats have lost their last two games and after their disappointing setback to Kansas in their last outing, I believe they come out flat here. Richmond also upset Kentucky 76-64 as a 6.5 point dog this year. The picks: Georgia Tech is desperate as it looks to avoid the 0-3 hole. The Yellow Jackets can smell the blood in the water, as this Kentucky team is just not the same as in year's past after losing its top six scorers from a year ago. Additionally note that Kentucky is just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Public perception has driven this road line larger than it should be. Outright is possible, but I'm going to recommend to grab as many points as you can in the end. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Georgia Tech. |
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12-05-20 | Samford +19 v. Belmont | Top | 96-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The Samford Bulldogs are 1-1 and the Belmont Bruins are 3-0. Am I predicting an outright upset here? I'm not. But I do think this one'll be a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Samford is averaging 87 PPG and it's allowing 75.5. Of course, the sample size is small, but the season is a short one. The picks: The Bruins are averaing 81.7 PPG and they're allowing 68.7. These teams numbers are similar in the early going. Belmont is absolutely the better team here, but I think it gets caught looking past its lowly opponent and takes the foot off the gas in the second half. Samford's offense has impressed early and I think it'll hang tight late. Grab the points! This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Samford. |
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12-04-20 | North Dakota +21.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 67-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: Minnesota is 3-0, most recently coming off a 67-64 win over Loyola Marymount. The Gophers average 84.7 PPG, and they concede just 68.7. North Dakota is 0-2, averaging 70.2, but allowing 77.5. Clearly Minnesota is the better team, but I think it takes the foot off the gas in the second half as it gets ready for Boston College to come to town on Monday. The pick: The Fighting Hawks are bad, but they know how to score. This is a great situational play in my opinion and just too many points, as I think the Gophers shiny 3-0 start has the general betting public helping in pushing this line a little too high. Clearly I'm not calling for an outright, but definitely closer than expected! This is a 10* $UPER-$HOCKER on North Dakota. |
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12-03-20 | Tennessee Tech +11.5 v. Northern Kentucky | Top | 65-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Tennessee Tech enters off a 79-48 loss to Xavier. Kenny White Jr. was decent in defeat with 13 points. The Golden Eagles early numbers are poor, but this is a great "situational" play in my opinion, as Northern Kentucky comes in off a tight 74-73 win over Ball State in its opener and with a game at 2-0 Chattanooga up next, this sets up as a classic letdown/look-ahead spot for the home side. The picks: Tennessee Tech is still 4-1 ATS in its last five overall, while UNT is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a home favorite in the 10.5 to 12.5 points range. Is UNT the better team here? Probably, but there's still plenty of unknowns. I'm not predicting an outright upset, but the stage is definitely set for a much more competitive battle than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Tennessee Tech. |
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12-01-20 | South Dakota +13 v. Nebraska | Top | 69-76 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cornhuskers enter off a disheartening 69-66 last second loss to Nevada in their last game and I think they'll still collectively be hung up on that setback. SDSU won't be lacking for motivation as it's 0-2 to start. Most recently the Coyotes lost 69-53 to Drake. The pick: The Cornhuskers are the bigger, more talented team that's at home and on paper, they're clearly the better team here. But I think this one sets up great from a situational stand point for the underdog visiting side, which I think comes in under the radar here. With a game vs. lowly FAMU up next, I think the Huskers come out flat here and play down to the level of their competition. Conversely, everything points to SDSU fighting tooth and nail until the final horn. Grab the points! This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on South Dakota. |
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10-11-20 | Lakers v. Heat +5 | Top | 106-93 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the Heat in Game 5 and I think they'll cover here as well. At the very least. The outright win is possible to I believe, but in this case I think the safter route is to grab the points. LA is running low on energy and its role players have been struggling to keep up with Miami's bench production. The Heat have been playing great defensively as well. The pick: Miami has been an ATS covering machine in the playoffs, and LA is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. the Eastern Conference. Anthony Davis is hampered by injuries and the Heat can smell the blood in the water. As stated above, I think the outright win is possible, but in the end let's grab the points! This is a 10* SIDE BLOCKBUSTER on the Miami Heat. |
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10-06-20 | Lakers -7.5 v. Heat | Top | 102-96 | Loss | -100 | 36 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: If you want an ESPN summary of what each individual player did in Game 3, then go to ESPN. If you're wagering on this contest, cleary you're familar with the cast of characters and the overall storyline. I'm here to tell you why I think the Lakers are going to streamroll the Heat in Game 4. LeBron James looked like a moron leaving the court early and he knows that the one thing that cures everything is "winning." When the Lakers big men assert themselves, the Heat have no answers and that's exactly what I expect to see happen here. Jimmy Butler was amazing in Game 3, but there's on way he can duplicate that effort again here. The pick: Note as well that the Lakers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a ten points or greater setback in their previous outing. No need to overanalyze in my opinion, as this one has "beatdown" written all over it. Lay the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the LA Lakers. |
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09-30-20 | Heat +5.5 v. Lakers | Top | 98-116 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: If you're wagering on this game, then you don't need me to fill you in on these teams strengths and the weaknesses and the cast of characters involved. All of these things are already known even by the most casual NBA fan. Besides, you can go to any sports website to obtain that information. I'm here to tell you why the Heat are going to at the very least, cover with the decent spread they've been afforded here. The pick: The Heat have done well in the playoffs, especially defending the perimeter and in shooting percentage. With a couple of days off to prepare, I think that Eric Spolestra will have a game-plan in place to counter what the Lakers will have in store. Also note that the Heat are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 overall. Miami has been overlooked throughout these playoffs and I think that LA does as well here. That said, grab the points. This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Miami Heat. |
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09-24-20 | Lakers v. Nuggets +6 | Top | 114-108 | Push | 0 | 37 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: If not for Anthony Davis's game winning three-point shot in Game 2, this series could be drastically different. Denver predictably came out flat in Game 1 after its second straight seven game series victory, but it's quickly made adjustments and now it's 1-2 after taking Game 3 convincingly. I had a play on LA in Game 1, but I think that Denver now has the "blue-print" to beat LA and while that may or may not in fact happen, in my opinion everything points to another "nail-biter!" The pick: I'll point out as well that LA is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after scoring 108 points or less in its previous outing, while Denver is 5-3 ATS in its last eight after scoring 114 points or more in a win in their last outing. This is a 10* GAME 4 BLOCKBUSTER on the Denver Nuggets. |
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09-22-20 | Lakers v. Nuggets +6.5 | Top | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 34 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nuggets have the Lakers right where they want them! That's the "joke" right now after Denver has come back from consecutive 3-1 deficits to win their last two series in seven games. The Lakers look like the better team to this point, but they got a huge shot from Anthony Davis to win Game 2. If he misses that one, who knows how Game 2 ends. Regardless, after getting blown out in Game 1 the Nuggets clearly made adjustments to counter LA and it almost worked. I think Denver's ability to adapt and make adjustments on the fly is its greatest strength and I believe it could in fact help it come out on top outright here. The pick: Note as well that the Nuggets are 7-1 in their last eight games when trailing in a playoff series, while the Lakers are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven in this series as the favorite. I'm not counting out the Nuggets quite yet. That said, I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Denver Nuggets. |
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09-20-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers -7.5 | Top | 103-105 | Loss | -107 | 34 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the Lakers in Game 1 and I think they now have the blue-print to sweep this Denver team in four. The Nuggets come off back-to-back seven game series where they had to dig themselves out of a 3-1 hole. It's an emotional game and I think that Denver is out of gas and it's "magic" has run out. The Lakers started slowly in the first quarter in Game 1, but then a quick adjustment saw them dominate the rest of the way, especially defensively. The pick: Nikola Jokic is going to have a heck of a time slowing down Anthony Davis, who I expect to once again have a big game here. The Lakers are too tough defensively for Jamal Murray to operate effectively either. I'm laying the points and expecting another blowout from start to finish. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the LA Lakers. |
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09-18-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers -7 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Obviously you can't count out the Nuggets in any situation, however I'm definitely going to do just that in Game 1. Denver has a reputation now of being quite the survivor after back-to-back series of having to climb out of a 1-3 hole. The Lakers though are rested and they have the big men in their line-up to easily handle Nikola Jokic of the Nuggets. With Jokic neutralized, the savvy veteran guards of the Lakers are going to be able to operate and make it difficult for Jamal Murray to get any open looks. This is an extremely poor matchup for Denver, which has no answer for LeBron James. The pick: LA is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine after four or more days of rest. I think the back-to-back seven games series comes back to fatigue Denver and I love the Lakers to finally get out to a big start in a playoff series in the bubble with a commanding full four quarter effort. I'm laying the points. This is a 10* BLOWOUT on the LA Lakers. |
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09-15-20 | Heat +1.5 v. Celtics | Top | 117-114 | Win | 100 | 80 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers feel that these teams are very evenly matched. And these two teams are. Both have great coaches and each is filled with talent that can put the ball in the hoop. Each is also extremely committed to the defensive side of things. So why will Miami win/cover in Game 1? I believe for sure that the few extra days off after taking care of the Bucks in five games is HUGE right now. The Celtics on the other hand just went through an exhausting seven game series vs. Boston and after that emotional win, I think a letdown here is imminent. The pick: Note that Miami is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine after playing with four or more whole days off. As primarily a situational handicapper, this particular one sets up fantastically for the Heat in my opinion. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Miami Heat. |
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09-11-20 | Nuggets +8 v. Clippers | Top | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 33 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the "over" in Game 4 and while that came up short, so too did the Nuggets. Denver was down 3-1 to the Jazz in its opening round series, before then posting three straight victories. Anything is possible, but the likliehood of that happening again is very slim. I don't think it's going to happen and Denver may well even lose this game outright, but I absolutely expect the Nuggets to fight hard, risking life and limb today to try and stay alive. LA has gotten fantastic and new flawless play from everyone over the last two games and I think its poised for a bit of a mental "letdown" in Game 5. The pick: Additionally note that the Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after being held to 88 points or less in a loss in their previous outing. I expect Denver to push the pace and to at the very least, keep this one close until the final moments. Grab the points. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Denver Nuggets. |
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09-10-20 | Lakers v. Rockets +5.5 | Top | 110-100 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston dominated in Game 1, but since then it's been all the Lakers. I think though that Houston is going to give its best shot here to try and get back into this series and while I obviously wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. The Lakers have used their size well over the last two games, but Houston has done well in this spot for bettors over the year, as note that it's 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after a ten point or larger loss to an opponent in its last outing. The pick: Note as well that the Lakers are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after a ten points or larger victory in their last outing. I think the desperation level in which the hungry Rockets play with tonight turns out to be the difference maker. Grab the points! This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Houston Rockets. |
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09-07-20 | Celtics v. Raptors +1 | Top | 111-89 | Loss | -104 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: This has been a back and forth series and with a spread like this, obviously the bookmakers think these teams are very evenly matched. And I agree. These teams are very similar, filled with talent and deep benches. The advantage that Toronto now has is two-fold though, as not only does it cleraly have the "momentum" back in this series (which I feel is crucial in the playoffs), but it also has the experience. And that's something you can't teach, only earn. The pick: Additionally note that the Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a five points or higher SU/ATS victory in their last outing in the playoffs. Boston is now mentally on the ropes here and I think the defending champs can smell the blood in the water. I'm banking on the Raptors riding the wave of momentum they've created to another solid ATS/SU victory in Game 5. The is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Raptors. |
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09-06-20 | Bucks +1.5 v. Heat | Top | 118-115 | Win | 100 | 29 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: I don't believe the Bucks are going to get swept. I thought Milwaukee would win this series, but now the odds are against it for that happening. All of that said though, I think the Bucks will finally put together a full four quarter effort here and find a way to avoid getting swept. The Heat have won seven straight, but I think a letdown is inevitable. Miami's defense has been spectacular, but it's shooting percentage seems unsustainable to me over the long-term. The pick: Miami is also just 1-5 ATS in its last six after a five games or longer ATS/SU unbeaten streak. Also note that Milwaukee is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after three or more SU/ATS losses. Milwaukee plays with pride and pushes this one to a Game 5. The is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Milwaukee Bucks. |
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09-04-20 | Bucks -5 v. Heat | Top | 100-115 | Loss | -106 | 33 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Do I think that the Miami Heat are a better team than the Milwaukee Bucks?! Of course not. I'll admit that Miami has definitely played a lot better than the Bucks to this point, but I think that'll finally change in Game 3. Giannis Antetokounmpo fouled Jimmy Butler with no time left on the clock in Game 2 and that's how the Bucks would lose. Clearly Giannis is going to be feeling responsible and I like the back-to-back MVP to come out and dominate in this game. The pick: And that's good news for the rest of the Bucks, who will finally have some room to operate. The Heat have been excellent, they could easily win this series, but I think they finally have a letdown here after playing at such a high-level for such an extended period of time. Milwaukee actually won the rebound battle in Game 2 (50-38). Look for the Bucks to finally hit their stride and lay the points with confidence. The is a 10* BEST OF THE BEST on the Milwaukee Bucks. |
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09-02-20 | Thunder v. Rockets -5 | Top | 102-104 | Loss | -104 | 34 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the Thunder will have trouble keeping up with James Harden and company. The Beard is about to take over this game in my opinion and I don't think that Chris Paul and his supporting cast will have what it takes to win a third straight in this series. The pick: This one sets up great from a trend based stand point as well, as note that Houston is still 15-7 ATS in its last 22 vs. teams with a win percentage above .600, while OKC is just 1-5 ATS in its last six after a SU/ATS victory. I'm laying the points and expecting a dominant victory from start to finish. The is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Houston Rockets. |
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08-31-20 | Rockets v. Thunder +6 | Top | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 34 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: The Thunder have looked great in this series at times and poor in others. The same can be said of the Rockets as well. Russell Westbrook only had 7 points for Houston last time out, but the Rockets still dominated from start to finish. Whether Westbrook has a better game or not, I still think that the Thunder will once again "dig deep" here (just like they did in Game's 1 and 2). Individual player matchups or coaching stratgies are meaningless at this point in my opinion, as the Thunder did in fact dominate this series during the regular season. These teams are evenly matched and I'm expecting a battle until the final horn. The pick: Note as well that that Thunder are 7-1 ATS in their last eight following a 30-points or greater loss in their previous outing. Expect OKC to dictate the tempo today and while I wouldn't be shocked by the outright upset, in the end I'm grabbing the points. The is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Thunder. |
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08-30-20 | Clippers v. Mavs +10 | Top | 111-97 | Loss | -106 | 44 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Whether Kristaps Porzingis plays or not, I like Dallas to at the very least, keep this one close enough to easily cover with the large spread that it's been afforded here. The extra time off because of the BLM movement will definitely help in healing up Mavericks' star Luca Doncic's knee as well. Each team has looked great in this series and pedestrian at other times. Bottom line is though is that I feel that they're very evenly matched. The pick: Dallas is also 7-3 ATS in its last ten after allowing 150 points or more in a loss in its previous outing. Expect Doncic to put the Mavs on his back and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, all signs point to this one coming right down to the wire. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Dallas Mavericks. |
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08-29-20 | Magic +13.5 v. Bucks | Top | 104-118 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: Orlando is getting a lot of points here. The Magic won Game 1 outright, but since then it's gone 0-3 SU/ATS vs. the surging Bucks. Do I think that the Magic are going to win this contest outright? I do not. Note though that Orlando has been just a single 3-point shot away in each of the last three games to actually cover the spread. And now it's getting more points in Game 5 than in any other to this point. The pick: The strengths and weaknesses are well known for each side, but note that the Bucks are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven following an ATS win, while the Magic are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 following a double-digit loss. Orlando's players are playing for a position on the team next year and I don't expect it to go down without a fight tonight. Grab the points. This is a 10* EXPRESS on the Orlando Magic. |
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08-25-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets +3 | Top | 107-117 | Win | 100 | 29 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: It's do or die for the Nuggets. The Jazz have looked great over their last two games, but I think Utah doesn't have that "killer instinct" in it and I look for it to struggle against this desperate Nuggets side. The Nuggets got 50 points from Jamal Murray in the 129-127 Game 4 setback. The pick: Utah shot almost 60% from the field in Game 4 and I simply don't see that happening again either. Additionally note that the Nuggets are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after allowing 125 points or more in a loss in their previous game, while the Jazz are just 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 as a favorite. I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Denver Nuggets. |
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08-21-20 | Clippers v. Mavs +5 | Top | 130-122 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mavericks could easily be up 2-0 in this series if star center Kristaps Porzingis wasn't ejected in the second period of Game 1. Dallas was clearly the better team in Game 2 and with the Clippers dealing with injuries to important players still, I have a hard time seeing LA keeping pace with this well oiled Mavericks team which is playing with a chip on its shoulder right now. The pick: LA is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as well after a ten points or larger loss in its last game. Does Dallas have a legitimate shot at winning Game 3 outright? With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers believe it does. And so do I. Grab the points. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Dallas Mavericks. |
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08-21-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz +2 | Top | 87-124 | Win | 100 | 26 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Denver beat the Jazz in double OT in the regular seaosn and then it also managed to pull for an OT win in Game 1 of this series. The Jazz battled tough though and in Game 2 they laid down the 124-105 smack down and I think they can build off that victory with another one in Game 3. The pick: And guess what? Utah won Game 2 without the services of star guard Mike Conley, who now returns to the team after the birth of his son. Additionally note that the Jazz are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a 10 points or larger victory. Grab the points. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the Utah Jazz. |
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08-20-20 | Heat v. Pacers +4.5 | Top | 109-100 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Indiana was swept in four games by the Celtics in the first round last year. So far the Pacers are only 1-4 vs. the Heat this season, including falling both SU and ATS in Game 1 of this series. Indiana is led by TJ Warren and with revenge on their minds, I believe the more experienced and hungrier Pacers will bounce back and deliver the goods here. The pick: Additionally I'll point out that Indiana has gone 10-4 ATS in its last 14 after losing by ten or more points in a playoff contest. Look for Indiana to at the very least, push Miami until the final moments. Grab the points. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Indiana Pacers. |
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08-19-20 | Mavs +6 v. Clippers | Top | 127-114 | Win | 100 | 31 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mavericks had an eight point lead half way through the third quarter of Game 1, and then big man Kristaps Porzingis got ejected and the Mavs fell apart mentally and failed to cover the spread in the end. Porzingis is back though in Game 2 and I do legitimately believe that Dallas has a chance at taking Game 2 outright. LA is still dealing with several key players missing and I think that catches up to them here. The pick: Additionally note that the Clippers are still a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight playoff games as a favorite. In a contest which I see coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Dallas Mavericks. |
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08-18-20 | Magic +10 v. Bucks | Top | 122-110 | Win | 100 | 96 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: I took this game early and have an unfavorable line, but I still love this play and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do think the deep and talented Magic will easily keep this one close enough to cover with the ample points they've been afforded. Both teams were 3-5 in the bubble. The Bucks swept all four regular season games, but the Magic were dealing with several injuries to key players back then. Orlando has Vucevic back which is signficant, but is dealing with an injury to Aaron Gordon, meaning that Terrence Ross and Evan Fournier will have to step up here. The pick: I think the Bucks classically get caught a bit complacent in this very first game. Milwaukee is also just 2-6 ATS in its last eight following a ten points or greater loss (fell 119-106 to the Grizz.) The odds are clearly against Orlando winning this series or this game, but if it has any shot, it will be in trying to pull off the upset in Game 1. As I stated off the top, I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I do expect this one to be competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. This is a 10* PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR on the Magic. |
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08-17-20 | Mavs +5 v. Clippers | Top | 110-118 | Loss | -105 | 79 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Are the Clippers really deeper and more talented than the Mavericks? Both teams are dealing with injuries right now, but I'd argue that Montrezl Harell's absence for LA is the most significant. Also note that Patrick Beverley and Landry Shamet are both questionable for this one as well. The Mavs have a possible injury to Seth Curry, but guys like Tim Hardaway Jr and Trey Burke have been very steady for the Mavs. The pick: I'll point out as well that the Clippers are a devastatingly poor 8-22 ATS in their last 30 playoff games as a favorite. The Clippers supporting cast is banged up, while the Mavs have two stars in Luca Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis playing at their highest level of their careers. The outright win is possible, but in the end let's grab the points! This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Mavericks. |
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08-15-20 | Grizzlies +6 v. Blazers | Top | 122-126 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Ja Morant hasn't played very well in the Bubble, but the dynamic guard has a chance to reverse his fortunes here in which he hopes will be a two-game play in series. If Portland wins, then this series is over and the Blazers will go on to face the Lakers. But if Memphis wins, these two teams will play a second game. Portland has played well behind Damian Lillard, but the Grizzlies matchup well with Portland in my opinion. The pick: Additionally note that Portland is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a favorite in the +6 to +12 range. In a game which comes down to the wire, I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* BEST OF THE BEST on the Memphis Grizzlies. |
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08-10-20 | Thunder +3.5 v. Suns | Top | 101-128 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Suns are 5-0 in the Bubble, that's both SU and ATS, but I think Phoenix finally takes a step back here vs. surging OKC, who enters off a relatively simple 121-103 win over Washington on Sunday afternoon. Note that that Thunder are a super 7-2 ATS in their last nine when playing the second game of a back to back and off a 15 points or more victory. The pick: Additionally note that the Suns have a tough game tomorrow night vs. the 76ers, who are just as hungry for victories right now as well. Everything's been going right for the Suns, but now they face a red hot Thunder team with even greater depth and experience. So while clearly the outright win isn't out of the question, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the OKC Thunder. |
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08-08-20 | Bucks v. Mavs +5.5 | Top | 132-136 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: With a win in their last game, the Bucks have now clinched the top spot in the East. Everything from here on out is to work on playoff strategy, so don't expect to see much of Giannis Antetokounmpo in this one if you're a Milwaukee fan. The pick: The Mavericks on the other hand have lost five of their last seven, most recently getting blown out by the Clippers. Dallas is still in a fight for positioning and it absolutely needs to start playing better if it has any shot at advancing in the postseason. So far it's been a letdown for Luca Doncic and company in the bubble, but a game vs. the Bucks' "B-Team" is just what the doctor ordered to get back on track. Outright victory?! Of course! That said, let's grab the points. This is a 10* UNDERDOG ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Dallas Mavericks. |
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08-05-20 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -4 | Top | 115-124 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are in desperate need of a victory here. Dating back finds the Grizzlies entering on a four-game losing slide, while the Jazz are just 1-2 in the Bubble, including losing back-to-back games. The Grizz enter averaging 112.7 PPG and allowing 113.9, while the Jazz are averaging 110.7 and conceding 108. The pick: Utah though has performed incredibly well for bettors in this spot for bettors, going 7-2 ATS in its last nine after back-to-back SU/ATS losses. These teams are very familiar with each other, but the Jazz have the upper hand in a number of matchups (especially in the middle of the paint) and I expect them to pull away down the stretch for a comfortable cover by the end of the night. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the Utah Jazz. |
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08-04-20 | Suns v. Clippers -9 | Top | 117-115 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Suns entered the Bubble healthier than they've been all season and that has translated into two straight victories, but I think that Phoenix will finally stumble here vs. this "step up" in competition. The Clippers lost to the Lakers in their first game, before recovering to hammer the Pelicans 126-103 in their second. Phoenix is still 2.5 games behind the Spurs for the eighth spot with six games remaining, but the Clippers are only two games up on third-place Denver. Unfortunately for the Suns, the Clippers can't afford to take the foot off the gas either. The pick: Note that the Clippers are now 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. the Western Conference, while the Suns are a poor 2-9 ATS in their last 11 in this series. I believe the Suns lack of depth on the bench gets exposed here as the game comes down the stretch. Lay the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the LA Clippers. |
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08-03-20 | Pacers -7 v. Wizards | Top | 111-100 | Win | 100 | 24 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pacers laid the hammer down on Philly 127-121 in their opener and I expect them to keep the foot on the gas here as well in their second game vs. the undermanned and "gassed" Wizards. Washington has a game vs. the Nets on Sunday afternoon and I believe it's going to predictably come into this one with "heavy legs." The pick: Indiana took two of three in the regular season series and that was without the services of Victor Oladipo. I believe Indiana will push the pace/tempo from the opening tip until the final horn and that's why I have no issues at all in laying these points. This is a 10* play on the Indiana Pacers. |
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08-02-20 | Mavs -5.5 v. Suns | Top | 115-117 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: Dallas lost 153-149 to the Rockets in OT in its opening game back, but I believe it'll get the job done tonight in its second outing vs. the Suns, who enter off a 125-112 win over the Wizards in their opener. The pick: Dallas took two of three in the season series, as this is a matchup which definitely favors it. Note as well that the Mavs are a sharp 8-4 ATS in their last 12 Western Conference contests after allowing 150 points or more in a loss in their prevoius outing. I'm banking on a bounce back blowout here. 10* play on the Dallas Mavericks. |
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08-01-20 | Lakers v. Raptors +3.5 | Top | 92-107 | Win | 100 | 843 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: One team which is certainly not a "fraud" is the Toronto Raptors. The long lay off definitely helps the defending champs, as they had several key players dealing with nagging injury issues. Those are now resolved and this under-rated team comes in looking for a back-to-back opportunity. The pick: I think the Lakers come in a step slow here after their opening night contest vs. division rival Clippers. I'm grabbing the points, but I wouldn't be shocked by a straight up situational victory here. 10* play on the Toronto Raptors. |
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07-31-20 | Rockets v. Mavs +1.5 | Top | 153-149 | Loss | -110 | 820 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mavericks have a golden opportunity to catch up to the Rockets, who are first int he Southwest at 40-24. Dallas is 40-27. To say this is a "big" game right out of the gates would be an understatement. Note that Houston is 29-35-0 ATS this year, while Dallas is 35-29-3. The pick: Both teams are dealing with a few injury issues, but certainly Houston's Russell Westbrook having to deal with the coronavirus right now is the biggest blow. Westbrook is listed as questionable for this contest. That's a major issue in my opinion for Houston and I believe that Dallas will attack from the outset in this game. Houston opened as the fav, but now Dallas is. Regardless, I look for the Mavericks depth to prove to be too much for James Harden to overcome by himself on Opening Night. 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Dallas Mavericks. |
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03-11-20 | Nebraska +12.5 v. Indiana | Top | 64-89 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams have played twice this year already and Indiana is 2-0. Both games have been very competitive though and I fully expect a repeat performance of those contests here. Indiana won 96-90 in OT in the first game, while then also winning 82-74 in the second. The Cornhuskers are the worst team in the Big Ten, but Indiana had plenty of issues as well this season. Not only does Nebraska play with revenge here after the two regular season losses, but it'll also be out to play spoiler, as the Hoosiers are definitely on the bubble as far as making the NCAA Tournament is concerned. The pick: Nebraska is also already 2-1 ATS in neutral court games this year and 3-1 ATS in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent, while Indiana is a poor 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 60 points or less in its previous contest. No outright, but expect a battle until the end. Grab as many points as you can. 10* SHOCKER ELITE OF THE ELITE on Nebraska. |
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03-11-20 | CS Sacramento -5 v. Weber State | Top | 62-54 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: Sacramento State is 15-14 and Weber State is 12-19. These teams split a pair of games during the regular season, but I still think that the Hornets are the better and ultimately deeper team in this particular matchup. Sacramento State stumbled down the stretch of the regular season, but it ranks sixth in the nation in defense by allowing only 59.9 PPG. Weber State lost three of their final four regular season games, allowing an average of 81.7 PPG in the setbacks. The pick: Note as well that Sacramento State is 10-4 ATS this year when playing the role of favorite and 8-4 ATS this season after playing its last game as an underdog, while Weber State is a poor 1-3 ATS in all neutral cour games this year. I think the Hornets' incredible defensive play is the difference maker in this one. Lay the points. 10* BIG SKY TOURNAMENT GAME OF THE YEAR on Sacramento State. |
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03-10-20 | North Carolina v. Virginia Tech +4 | Top | 78-56 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: Virginia Tech beat UNC 79-77 in double OT on January 22nd, the only meeting between the schools this season. Both teams ended the regular season with a loss. Both teams disappointed this year overall. Cole Anthony is a lone bright spot for the Tar Heels (19.6 PPG), but beyond him that Tar Heels are very thin. The pick: UNC has been a downright disaster for bettors in this spot all year though, going just 5-14 ATS in its last 19 as a favorite, while VT has been money in the bank by going 7-3 ATS this year after allowing 65 points or less in two straight games and 4-1 ATS in its last five after playing a game as a road underdog. I'm expecting an outright win, but I'm grabbing the points as insurance. 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Virginia Tech. |
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03-09-20 | Raptors v. Jazz -3.5 | Top | 101-92 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: Toronto comes in off a hard-fought win in Sacramento just last night and I think it'll predictably stumble in this difficult road venue in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. The Jazz are rested and out to avenge a humbling 130-110 loss in Toronto back in December. This is also the final game of a five-game trip in which the Raptors have already posted three straight wins in. From a situational stand point, I definitely believe this one sets up fantastically for the home side. The pick: Note as well that Toronto is a poor 3-5 ATS this year as a road dog of six points or less and only 10-14 ATS vs. clubs with winning records, while Utah is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 in trying to revene a same season loss vs. an opponent. Lay the points, expect a rout. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Utah Jazz. |
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03-09-20 | Central Michigan +7 v. Ohio | Top | 65-85 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the No. 8 Ohio Bobcats are going to have their hands full here vs. the No. 9 CMU Chippewas this evening. CMU plays with revenge after a 77-69 road defeat to Ohio in mid February. The Chips won't be lacking for motivation here. They opened the season 6-2 and then lost nine straight, before then finally posting an 85-68 win over WMU in its finale. CMU has the firepower to match anyone in the conference, as it is in fact the highest scoring team by averaging 78.7 PPG. The Bobcats started 2-7 and then won six of their final nine in conference play. Overall though the Bobcats average only 71.1 PPG this year. The pick: Yes the Chips have struggled defensively, but they closed out the regular season on a high-note and I like them to carry that momentum over here. Outright victory is possible, but in the end let's grab the points. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Michigan. |