Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-22-19 | Heat -4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MIAMI Miami has quietly been one of the better teams in the league this year. They are 10-3 while outscoring teams by 8.5 points per game. The only teams with a better point differential this year are the Lakers and Bucks. Winners of four in a row, the Heat rank 3rd in defensive efficiency. Chicago can't measure up to any of those numbers, although they did just win a game by 20 points. But it was against the Pistons, who have really been struggling of late. Miami also recently beat Detroit as part of its four-game run. The Heat have shot better than every other team in the league thus far, making 48.2% from the field. Don't expect the Bulls to play the same kind of defense here that they did vs. the Pistons. That was only the second time they've held an opponent under 100 points. Miami has won 8 of its last 10 and all eight wins have come by at least nine points. They are 9-2 ATS overall this season and 6-0 as a favorite! Play on MIAMI AAA |
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11-19-19 | Suns v. Kings -2 | Top | 116-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SACRAMENTO When these teams opened the season against one another, the Suns would prevail in one-sided fashion, 124-95 as a 1-point home favorite. That was the first of seven consecutive covers by Phoenix to start the year. But a lot has changed since then. The Suns are now just 2-3 SU and ATS since that 7-game ATS win streak. They lost last night at home to Boston, getting held to a season-low 85 points. At no point in the second half were they closer than nine points. Another thing that has changed from the first time around is Sacramento's play. They started 0-5 SU and ATS but have gone 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS in November. They just beat Boston on Sunday, 100-99. They did so without De'Aaron Fox or Marvin Bagley Jr. The Celtics had won 10 in a row going into that game and are now obviously 11-1 their last 12 after being the Suns yesterday. Two absences on the Phoenix side are huge here. Deandre Ayton, who was last year's top draft pick, is suspended. Ricky Rubio was a late scratch last night due to back spasms and the offense did not look the same without him running the show. With the Suns in a back to back, the situation is much better for the Kings tonight. Play on SACRAMENTO AAA |
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11-18-19 | Bucks -7.5 v. Bulls | Top | 115-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MILWAUKEE With wins in seven of the last eight games, Milwaukee is definitely rolling right now. The just beat Indiana by 19 on the road Saturday night. That was their best defensive effort of the year, holding the Pacers to just 83 points. That was timely because their own point total of 102 happened to be a season-low. Scoring has not been an issue for the Bucks this year, however. They lead the league in points/game (118.8) thanks in large part to the same prolific three-point shooting we saw last year. The other good news is the Bucks are 7-3 ATS the last three seasons coming off a game in which they allowed 90 points or less. These teams just played on Thursday with the Bucks winning 124-115. The Bulls were our *10* Game of the Month that night and cashed as 11.5-point underdogs. But we're switching course tonight as it seems very unlikely that Chicago will score that many points again. They are shooting just 40.9% in home games so far. It's now two straight losses for the Bulls as they just fell to a Brooklyn team that didn't have Kyrie Irving or Caris LeVert. Despite those absences, the Bulls still gave up 117 points. That's a bad sign for tonight. Milwaukee has covered its last four games in Chicago. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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11-16-19 | Blazers +1.5 v. Spurs | Top | 121-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Portland is a small dog tonight in San Antonio. But it would appear as if the oddsmakers have failed to account for the fact that the Spurs are playing the second night of a back to back. This line would make sense were the home team rested. But they're not. The Blazers should be favored. Then there is the matter of what happened to the Spurs last night. Despite being up most of the game, they lost to Orlando 111-109. You just can't lose games where you have a 16-point lead ad shoot 50%. But the Spurs did just that. It was their 4th straight loss. For maybe the first time in Greg Popovich's tenure here, defense has become a major issue in San Antonio. The Spurs gave up 64 points to the Magic in the second half last night. They've allowed at least 112 points in five straight games.This is a revenge game for Portland, who lost 113-110 here in SA on October 28th. Both teams enjoyed a lead of 19 points in that game. The Blazers ended up covering as six-point underdogs. While the line isn't as high this time, that's irrelevant as the road team can clearly win outright here. Portland needs this one pretty badly as they've dropped six of seven. Carmelo Anthony won't be coming on board until Tuesday at the earliest. But the Blazers are well rested heading into Saturday (two days off) while the similarly struggling Spurs are not. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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11-15-19 | Jazz -7 v. Grizzlies | Top | 106-107 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH Utah fell behind by double digits against Brooklyn on Tuesday. While they were able to come back and win 119-114, they did not cover the 6.5-point spread. That was at home. Tonight the Jazz hit the road, but they are facing a weak opponent. Memphis is not a team you would expect to get out in front of the Jazz like Brooklyn was able to do. Thus, our automatic inclination here was to lay the points. While the Grizzlies have won two in a row, it's the first time that's been the case this year. In Wednesday's 119-117 win over Charlotte, they mounted their own comeback, rallying back from down 12 in the third quarter. But Memphis has not done well after allowing more than 115 points their previous game. They are just 1-5 ATS in this situation the last three seasons. Utah is one of the top defensive teams in the league and has won four games in a row. They are allowing just 99.5 points/game. Memphis allows 118.8 points/game, which is fifth most in the league right now. This is a sizable mismatch. Play on UTAH AAA |
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11-14-19 | Bulls +11.5 v. Bucks | Top | 115-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CHICAGO Already on a three-game ATS losing streak, it's going to be tough for the Bucks to cover large spreads like this one now that Kris Middleton is injured. Middleton will be out 3-4 weeks after suffering a thigh injury Sunday. This is a good chance to fade Milwaukee as they host the Bulls on TNT. Chicago is coming off a 120-102 win over the Knicks, their second 18+ point win in the last three games. Rookie Coby White had his best game as a pro, ending up with 27 points after making seven three-pointers in the fourth quarter. With Middleton out, the Bucks are going to need someone to pick up the slack. It would be unfair to expect more from Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is already averaging 29.7 points, 14.3 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game. This situation is not great for Milwaukee either. They are coming off four straight road games and will play three more away from home following this game. Laying such a big number makes the spot even trickier. Chicago has not been a double digit dog yet this season. They've only been a dog period four times. So the market respects this team a bit more than most realize. They've covered four of their last six games. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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11-12-19 | Nets v. Jazz -6.5 | Top | 114-119 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH For a second time this year, Utah has won three in a row. They are 7-3 overall, which has them right near the top of the Western Conference. Tonight they go for a season-best four-game win streak when they host Brooklyn. We'll be laying the points. This is the second game of a back to back for the Jazz. Last night they went to Golden State and won 122-108. Winning at Golden State doesn't mean what it used to though, so we don't expect any kind of letdown. The Jazz won by 32 the only other time they played without rest this year. Brooklyn lost by 26 in Phoenix Sunday night. That snapped a two-game win streak. But they are still only 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS. Massive edge for Utah defensively in this one. They lead the league allowing just 98.1 points/game. They've yet to allow more than 108 points. Brooklyn is next to last in points allowed per game at 121.7. They are 3-10 ATS after allowing 130 or more points in their last game (Phoenix scored 138). The Jazz are the only team in the West that has not lost a home game. They are 5-0 in Salt Lake City, winning by an average of 11.2 points. They are simply better than Brooklyn right now. Play on UTAH AAA |
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11-11-19 | Grizzlies v. Spurs -11 | Top | 113-109 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN ANTONIO Neither the Grizzlies nor the Spurs have been very good teams against the pointspread this year. Both come into Monday sporting 2-7 ATS records. But the difference is San Antonio has at least been winning some (5-4 straight up) while the Grizzlies have a matching 2-7 SU record. San Antonio did just get hit hard by Boston, giving up 135 points in a 20-point home loss. It was the third loss in the last four games for the Spurs, but the first time they'd been blown out all season. Traditionally, they have not been good off that kind of defeat. But they're facing a Memphis team that has been outscored by almost 28 points/game in its three road losses. The Grizzlies just lost 138-122 to Dallas and that was at home. While it was the most points they've given up in a game this year, it was not the first time getting blown out. It was the 4th loss by 19 or more points so far and second in a row. The previous night in Orlando they lost 118-86. It's a big number to lay with a Spurs team that hasn't covered often. But Memphis might be the worst team in the league right now. Their last three opponents have averaged 125.7 points. They are averaging just 92.7 points/game themselves on the road. Play on SAN ANTONIO AAA |
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11-09-19 | Rockets -6 v. Bulls | Top | 117-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston started the year 0-6 ATS (while also going 3-3 SU in those games). They've now covered two straight, beating Memphis and Golden State. Tonight they face another weak opponent in Chicago. The Bulls did win their last game, however. They actually won by 20 on the road! But it was the first time Atlanta had to play a back to back this season. The Hawks, by their own admission, seemed ill-prepared for the game. Chicago took full advantage with its largest margin of victory to date. The Rockets figure to be one of the better teams in the Western Conference this year. Some atrocious defense hurt them the first couple weeks of the season, but they just held Memphis and Golden State to an average of 106 points. Chicago's ambitions of making the playoffs this year feel a little foolish on this end. They've been held under 100 points three times already and won't look as good here as they did in Atlanta Wednesday night. Off their first two wins, the Bulls lost by 24 and 13, both times at home. It's a little shocking that the Bulls have been underdogs in only three games so far. They lost all three. We think the market is simply too high on them. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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11-08-19 | Kings -1.5 v. Hawks | Top | 121-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SACRAMENTO Just as soon as they got Trae Young back from injury, the Hawks lost John Collins to a 25-game suspension. The team looked absolutely putrid in a 20-point home loss to Chicago Wednesday night. So we'll be playing against them tonight. Wednesday was the first time all year Atlanta had to play back to back. Still that's no excuse for losing by 20 at home to the Bulls. Young really struggled, scoring just nine points. The team was 6 of 30 from behind the 3-point arc with Young missing all eight of his tries. Committing a season-high 24 turnovers didn't help either. This is not the first game where Sacramento has been a road favorite. We actually took them -1.5 at New York on Sunday, which was our Game of the Week. They won by 21. While they followed it up with a 4-point loss in Toronto, they covered as eight-point underdogs. So they're 3-0 ATS the L3 games having also beaten Utah, which is a solid win. The Kings are just 5-16 ATS their last 21 visits to Atlanta, but won convincingly here last season (by 31 points). It was their largest margin of victory all year. They are 3-1 SU and ATS the last two seasons versus the Hawks. Against Toronto, the Kings tied a franchise record with 20 made three-pointers. They are the hotter of these two teams right now. Play on SACRAMENTO AAA |
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11-07-19 | Celtics -6.5 v. Hornets | Top | 108-87 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON Charlotte has certainly surprised some people by winning three in a row. They've covered the spread in four straight games. Only one of those games were they they favorite and how ironic is it that it was against Golden State? Tuesday night was a 122-120 overtime win over Indiana. There was a pretty obvious reason the Hornets were able to beat the Pacers. Free throws. While Charlotte went 28 of 42 from the line, Indiana was only 6 of 7. That kind of massive disparity doesn't come around too often. Without it, the Hornets would have lost Tuesday. The disparity certainly won't repeat itself tonight.Boston is humming along with five straight wins. The last one was in Cleveland, 119-113, a game with a similar spread to this one. The Celtics only loss this year came in the opener at Philadelphia. Since then, they've been playing very good defense, holding teams to 42.7% shooting. Tonight is a homecoming of sorts for Kemba Walker. The Hornets all-time leading scorer is now averaging 26 points/game for the Celtics. Jaylen Brown is expected back for Boston after he missed the last three games. It's surprising to see Charlotte winning three in a row. The streak stops here though. The past two seasons saw them go 5-9 SU/ATS when off three or more consecutive wins. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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11-06-19 | Magic v. Mavs -7.5 | Top | 106-107 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DALLAS Orlando's struggles continued last night with a 102-94 loss in Oklahoma City. It was yet another game scoring less than 100 points. In fact, the Magic have yet to score 100 points in any game this year. No wonder they have a 2-5 SU record (1-5-1 ATS). It's unlikely they get the issues solved in the second night of a back to back, so fade them again.We faded the Magic last night too. We talked about the lack of scoring as they are last in the league in points scored and field goal percentage. It looked like they might be able to get to 100 last night, but a 15-point fourth quarter ultimately doomed them. They shot just 39% for the game, including 13% on three-point attempts. Dallas has looked far more impressive so far. They scored 131 in a blowout win at Cleveland Sunday. The time off between games is another obvious advantage the Mavs have coming into this one. Point guard Luka Doncic looks like the real deal. Orlando hasn't won here in "Big D" since 2011. It's seven straight losses by an average of 17.7 points/game. If you can't score 100 points, you won't win many games in this league. That's the sad reality for the Magic right now. Unless the Mavericks have some sort of severe defensive lapse, they should win comfortably against a team playing in the second night of a back to back. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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11-05-19 | Magic v. Thunder -3.5 | Top | 94-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OKC Orlando hasn't been very good against the spread thus far. They are just 1-4-1 ATS. Even more disturbing is the fact they have yet to score 100 points in a game. This is 2019, people! The Magic take the league's worst offense to Oklahoma City on Tuesday. This is a rebuilding year for the Thunder, but so far they've taken advantage of poor public perception to go 4-2 ATS. They have the same number of SU wins (2) as Orlando. This won't be the first time OKC has been favored either. The first is a game they'd like to forget as they lost outright here at home to the Wizards. But the next game saw them bounce back with a 120-92 win over Golden State (were -1.5), also at home. Orlando has lost both of its road games so far. They shot a horrendous 24.5% from three-point range in those games. They are averaging just 93.5 points/game overall. OKC won its last game, beating New Orleans 115-104 as a two-point favorite. That was despite being short-handed. Six players scored 10 or more points. Go ahead and lay this short number. Play on OKC. AAA |
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11-04-19 | Rockets -5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 107-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston had high expectations coming into the season. So it has to feel terribly disappointing to be only 3-3 through six games. Last night was a humiliating 129-100 loss in Miami where they trailed 46-14 at the end of the first quarter. The Rockets are now 0-6 ATS on the young season.They're not about to go 0-82 ATS though and that's our mindset coming into Monday's game at Memphis. The Grizzlies aren't a good team. They're 1-4 with the only win coming in overtime, by a single point, on a buzzer beater. Russell Westbrook is being given tonight off. But his absence is built into this line. It's a short number, one that we don't mind laying. The Rockets have been favored in every game this season. The Grizzlies have been underdogs in all of their games. Houston's problem lies on the defensive end as they are last in the league in points allowed. Good for them then that they are facing a Memphis team that is 2nd to last in offensive efficiency. The Rockets are 5-1 ATS the last six meetings with Memphis. Look for them to continue that mastery. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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11-03-19 | Kings +1 v. Knicks | Top | 113-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SACRAMENTO Two of the dregs of the league play Sunday in the Big Apple as the 1-5 Kings play the 1-5 Knicks. Besides matching records, something else the teams have in common is that they are both were involved in a close game Friday. But the difference is Sacramento won theirs won the NY lost. The Kings first win of the season was against Utah and at home. They won 102-101 on a last second putback. Obviously, after an 0-5 start, they'd take a win anyway they can get it. But even before beating the Jazz, which is an impressive win by the way, there were signs of improvement. The Kings played much better against Charlotte and Denver then they did in the first three games. The Knicks lost on a last second shot Friday, 104-102 to Boston. Their only win came in a game where they had to rally from an 18-point deficit and that was against the Bulls. So New York pretty easily could be 0-6 right now. We understand there may be some hesitation to lay points with Sacramento away from home. But this is a really short number. They also beat the Knicks twice last year. It was easily forgotten because of the 0-5 start, but the Kings were supposed to be fairly competitive this year. The Knicks are still one of the worst teams in the league. No matter the opponent, we're glad to bet that they'll lose on any given night. A loss is all we need here. Play on SACRAMENTO AAA |
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10-31-19 | Spurs +5 v. Clippers | Top | 97-103 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SAN ANTONIO San Antonio has the odd juxtaposition of having won every game straight up, but having lost all of them against the spread. They are 3-0 SU/0-3 ATS, which isn't really something you see all that often, whether at the start of the year or at any point, really. So this is obviously the first time they've been an underdog this season and it comes against a Clippers team playing in the second game of a back to back. Kawhi Leonard was given last night off and the Clippers faded badly down the stretch, losing to the Jazz 110-96. Paul George has yet to play at all this season. Like the Spurs, the Clippers have also failed to cover three in a row. The team isn't going to continue shooting almost 40% from three-point land. The Spurs come into their first road game fully healthy and will be highly motivated to beat former teammate Leonard. In their last game, the Spurs caught Portland in the second game of a back to back and led that one by as much as 19 points. Play on SAN ANTONIO AAA |
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10-28-19 | Nuggets -6 v. Kings | Top | 101-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DENVER While this seems like a bit of a "square" play, fact is the Kings aren't a very good team right now. They've opened with three straight losses and all of them have been by double digits. Getting blown out by Phoenix to start the season was a troubling sign. But even worse than that 29-point defeat was losing Marvin Bagley III, who is one of their top players. Bagley is expected to be out for at least a month. Something else that seems "out" in Sacramento is defense. They have let every opponent shoot 50% or better. Saturday night, they were buried in Utah, 113-81. Now they must face Denver, who is 2-0 and doing an excellent job defensively. Being 2-0 while barely shooting 40% overall is actually a good sign for a Nuggets team we know can score. Our guess is they find the offensive touch tonight. Another of Sacramento's key players, De'Aaron Fox is battling a hip injury as well. We just can't see this being a close game as the Nuggets are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS the last seven meetings. Play on DENVER AAA |
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10-28-19 | Cavs v. Bucks -15 | Top | 112-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE Both sides are coming off surprising results here. Cleveland won its home opener as a 5-point dog, beating undermanned Indiana 110-99. While that was going on, Milwaukee blew a 21-point lead at home to Miami and lost in overtime. Let's look for order to be restored on Monday. The Cavs are going to be one of the worst teams in the league this year. They scored only 85 points against Orlando in the first game, which was on the road. Indiana did not have leading scorer Victor Oladipo for the second game. The Bucks are the obvious choice to finish first in the East. They are going to be too much for Cleveland, provided they stop fouling and can make their usual number of threes. Houston and Miami were able to go to the free throw line a combined 75 times against Milwaukee. Cleveland is averaging just 22 foul shots per game and when they get there, they really aren't making them (65%). Milwaukee attempts over 50 three pointers per game and if they are making 15-20, the Cavs lack the firepower to keep up. Three different times last season, the Bucks beat the Cavs by double digits. The two games here at home were decided by a combined 38 points. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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10-25-19 | Mavs v. Pelicans -2.5 | Top | 123-116 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NEW ORLEANS This was supposed to be a spotlight game for the Pelicans #1 draft choice Zion Williamson, but he got hurt in the preseason so ESPN is going to have to find something else to talk about. In the first game without Williamson, the Pelicans took Toronto to overtime Wednesday. They ended up not covering (lost 130-122) as they were 7.5-point dogs, a brutal result for anyone who may have taken the points. As tough a loss as it was for the Pelicans and their backers, we're looking for them to take their frustrations out on Dallas in the home opener Friday. That first game showed the Pelicans still must be taken seriously even without their prized rookie. There were just too many turnovers, especially late in the second half and in overtime. Dallas got to play a cupcake in its season opener, Washington, but didn't cover as nine-point favorites. They won 108-100. So we're looking at both teams coming off 1-pt ATS losses. The game is in New Orleans where the Mavericks lost twice last year. The Pelicans got 57 points from their bench against Toronto, showing they are more than just Williamson. It being a short number, let's lay it! Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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10-23-19 | Celtics v. 76ers -5 | Top | 93-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on Philly Milwaukee comes into the year as the favorite to win the NBA’s Eastern Conference. As for the debate over “who’s #2?” it probably comes down to one of these teams.The 76ers host the Celtics to open the year and the winner will have made an early season statement in the Atlantic Division. We like the 76ers at home as they have more minutes returning from last season. Plus they nabbed Al Horford away from the Celtics. Horford joins Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid as the stars in Philly. Embiid was not healthy in the playoffs and this is obviously a much better team when he is healthy. Remember that Philly took eventual champion Toronto to seven games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Boston also lost in the semis, but there’s a lot of change here with Kemba Walker replacing Kyrie Irving, who was a failed experiment. Boston has covered the last five head to head meetings, but it’s time for that to change Wednesday as the Sixers should easily cover this short number at home. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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06-10-19 | Warriors +3.5 v. Raptors | Top | 106-105 | Win | 100 | 47 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on GOLDEN STATE It's do or die time for the Warriors on Monday. They hope to accomplish what the Bruins did last in NHL; that's stay alive by winning on the road. Of course, they're task is a whole lot tougher than the Bruins as they trail in this series 3 games to 1. In the entire history of the NBA Finals, only one team has ever come back to win after trailing 3-1. Golden State knows this very well as it happened to them back in 2016 against Cleveland. The big news is that Kevin Durant has practiced and is listed as questionable for Game #5. Even if he doesn't end up playing, we're still taking the Warriors. They're too good to go down without a fight. Klay Thompson and Kevon Looney both returned for Game 4. Before the last two games, they'd never lost two in a row at home in the playoffs under Kerr. Their only three-game playoff losing streak under Kerr came in that 2016 Finals vs. LeBron and the Cavs. Could Toronto be too "amped up" for this? We look for this to be a big bounce back game offensively for Golden State with or without Durant. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on GOLDEN STATE Golden State's string of less than enthralling performances continued in Game #3 as they lost 123-109. The defeat of course comes with some major caveats, those being the absences of both Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson (not to mention reserve Kevon Looney as well). The seriously short-handed Warriors ended up shooting just 39.6% from the field (a playoff low) and really had no answer for Toronto defensively, allowing them to shoot 52.4% from the field and make 17 three-pointers. We look for the Warriors to rebound in Game #4. Thompson will be back after missing a playoff game for the first time in his career. Toronto isn't going to shoot that well again as all five starters were in double figures as was reserve Fred Van Vleet. Remember that they shot just 37.2% in Game #2 after being right above 50% in Game #1. Steph Curry went for 47 points in Game #3, but won't need to match that production with Thompson back in the lineup. The Warriors are 13-5 ATS off their previous 18 ATS defeats and have dropped consecutive games in the playoffs just once, both coming in Houston. They have never dropped consecutive home playoff games under Kerr, so we will lay the points Friday. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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06-05-19 | Raptors +6 v. Warriors | Top | 123-109 | Win | 100 | 47 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TORONTO The bodies are certainly starting to pile up for Golden State. Already without Kevin Durant, they've now lost reserve forward Kevon Looney for the remainder of this series and Klay Thompson is injured too. Though Thompson has vowed to play in Game #3, we still don't like the idea of the Warriors laying this many points to a revenge-minded and healthy Raptors squad. Toronto has been the underdog five times in the playoffs. They've won three of the games straight up and it should have been four (blown Gm 1 lead vs. Milwaukee). They'll shoot better than 37.2% from the field here (FG% from Game 2), that's for sure. Golden State has been down by double digits in five straight games now. They're the ones who will struggle to score here, not just because they aren't close to 100 percent, but also because the Raptors play great defense. They held Golden State under their season average in Games 1 & 2. There have been only four games this entire postseason run where they've allowed more than 109 points. So taking the points would seem ideal here. Golden State is also 1-7-1 ATS off its last nine straight up victories. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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06-02-19 | Warriors v. Raptors -2 | Top | 109-104 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TORONTO Toronto probably surprised a lot of people by winning Game 1, but not us. They had the home court advantage and with Golden State playing without Kevin Durant, the Warriors were ripe for the picking. Look for the Raptors to continue to ratchet up the defense here as they are giving up less than 97 points/game at home in the playoffs and there have been just eight games total where they've allowed more than 100 points. Game 1 was one of them, but that's to be expected vs. the Warriors. Still, without Durant, Golden State was held below its season average in scoring. They have lost all three games to Toronto this season, two of them taking place in Canada. The Raptors have covered the spread in their last four home games and last five games overall. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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05-25-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 94-100 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MILWAUKEE The Bucks find themselves facing elimination tonight, which is certainly NOT a position they expected to be in after taking the first two games of the series. But they were a little lucky to win Game #1 remember (outscored Toronto 32-17 in 4th Quarter) and definitely lucky to cover. They rolled to a wire-to-wire 125-103 win and cover in Game #2, but then basically never led in either game in Toronto (even though Game #3 went to double overtime). Things figured to return to normal in Game #5, which was back at home, and they did look good early with Milwaukee taking an early 12-point lead. But then it was the Raptors turn to pull off an impressive comeback as they held the Bucks to just 67 points over the last three quarters. After the home team started the series 4-0 SU/ATS, not many are going to expect the road team to win two straight. But we wouldn't make the mistake of giving up on the Bucks, who we still feel are the better team and are also a perfect 9-0 against the spread this season on the road when coming off a straight up loss as a favorite. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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05-21-19 | Bucks -2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 102-120 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee has turned in one dominant game in the Eastern Conference Finals (Game 2), but mostly trailed in the other two, so in some regards they should feel fortunate to be up in the series. They did have a golden opportunity to "steal one" on the road Sunday, which would have given them an insurmountable 3-0 series lead, but they ultimately lost in double overtime. With Golden State having swept its way into the NBA Finals, there's a little bit of pressure on the Bucks now to end this series quickly. We should obviously not discount the Raptors, but a win here by the Bucks and this series goes back to Milwaukee for Game 5 with a chance to close it out. Defensively, Milwaukee continues to do a great job as it is allowing less than 40% shooting for the entire playoffs. Perhaps even more impressive is their 21-5 ATS record coming off a SU loss. They are the better team here. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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05-20-19 | Warriors -3.5 v. Blazers | Top | 119-117 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on GOLDEN STATE The Warriors broke the hearts of the Blazers with a come from behind victory in Game #2 and they may very well have broken their spirit by doing the same in Game #3. Both instances saw the reigning champs battle back from a double digit halftime deficit. Blowing leads like that - in consecutive games - is really tough to battle back from and down 0-3 in a series would seem like the ideal spot to fade such a team as no team in history has come back to win a series down 0-3, so Portland basically knows its season ended Saturday night. Unlike Game #2 (when we cashed the Blazers plus the points), they could not even cover the spread in Game #3, losing by 11 as their poor shooting continued. Assuming Golden State does not fall into yet another early hole, covering the spread here should not be a problem at all. They have incentive to sweep as it will give them more time off before the NBA Finals and maybe Kevin Durant can return for that series. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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05-18-19 | Warriors v. Blazers -2 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -113 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PORTLAND Despite not playing all that well in Game #1, Portland was very much alive going into the fourth quarter. They only trailed by six. Golden State took it from there, outscoring the Blazers 39-23 the rest of the way for a comfortable 116-94 win and cover. We were happy with that result seeing as we'd laid the points with the Warriors. But for Game #2, we took Portland and the points. That proved to be the absolute right call as the Blazers led outright almost the entire way. They were up by 15 at halftime and up eight with just 4:30 left in the game. But as we all now know, they lost 114-111. That's a bitter pill to swallow, but at least Portland is back at home for Game #3, which helps soften the blow. They are 37-10 SU at home for the year, including 5-1 in the playoffs. Their scoring average jumps to 118.1 points/game at the Moda Center. Let us not forget the Warriors are still playing without Kevin Durant. They've gone 3-0 since his injury, but they're more likely to miss him on the road. After Game #2's non-cover, the Warriors are now 3-8 ATS following a their last 11 straight up victories. Portland HAS to have this one. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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05-16-19 | Blazers +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PORTLAND Portland probably couldn't have played any worse in Game 1. Yet they were only down six going into the fourth quarter. Golden State took it from there, outscoring the Blazers 39-23 the rest of the way for a comfortable 116-94 win and cover. We were happy with that result seeing as we'd laid the points with the Warriors. But Portland obviously wasn't and to make this a series they're going to need to start shooting a lot better than they have recently. They have a field goal percentage of only 41.3 the last five games, including a playoff low 36.1% in Game 1. Three-point shooting in particular is due to improve. History is on the Blazers side as well, at least this season, as they are a perfect 8-0 against the spread seeking revenge for a double digit road loss. Remember that this team won twice in Denver last round and the Nuggets had the league's best home record. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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05-15-19 | Raptors +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 100-108 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TORONTO Neither Eastern Conference Finalist had a very hard time in Round 1 with the Raptors advancing after only five games against the Magic and the Bucks sweeping the Pistons. Toronto needed seven games to get rid of Philadelphia in Round 2, however, with the series coming down to a heart-stopping shot by Kawhi Leonard. It was the first playoff buzzer beater in a winner take all game since the infamous Michael Jordan shot over Craig Ehlo 30 years ago. While the Raptors were playing until Sunday, Milwaukee has enjoyed a full week off since eliminating the Celtics in five games. They are 8-1 SU and ATS in the playoffs and have the home court edge in this series. But history shows they might come out a bit rusty for this one. Coming off similar rest between the first two series, they lost Game 1 to Boston here at home, dropping them to 2-4 ATS this season playing with three or more days rest. They are just 5-14-1 ATS their last 20 games in this situation. With the Raptors allowing less than 100 points/game in the playoffs, our recommendation is to take the points in Game 1. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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05-14-19 | Blazers v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 94-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on GOLDEN STATE Golden State is making its fifth straight Western Conference Finals appearance while Portland is here for the first time since 2000. The experience edge should ultimately prevail here in Game 1 and we're going to lay the points. It's easy to forget, but the Blazers were down 17 in the first half of their eventual Game 7 victory against Denver on Sunday. The Warriors, playing without Kevin Durant, eliminated Houston on Friday. The couple of extra days between series is a nice edge for Golden State as they have to keep going on sans Durant. They've got the edge in rest and home court. We have Houston rated stronger than Portland so this is one of those rare times a team (Golden State) is actually facing a weaker team after advancing. Even though they did win Game 7 in Denver, the Blazers are still only 24-23 SU on the road this season. They are 1-5 ATS following their last 6 straight up victories. They are just 9-22 ATS their last 31 trips into Oakland and that includes a 28-point loss earlier in the season. Play GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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05-12-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 100-96 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DENVER Going into each of Denver's two series thus far, we've stated the fact they had the home court advantage would be vital. Once again, we find them hosting a Game 7. The first round series against San Antonio ended with the Nuggets winning 90-86 here at the Pepsi Center. Though they won, it ended up being a terrible beat (we had Denver) as they blew the cover late (were -6.5). It was a game they led wire to wire and were up double digits much of the way. The reason the home court edge has been so crucial in these first two series is not only because Denver has such a dramatic home vs. road split, but so too have each of their opponents. The Nuggets have the best home record in the league at 39-9 straight up, but are just 22-23 on the road. San Antonio had the second best home record in the league in the regular season, but was just 16-25 on the road. Portland isn't quite as dramatic, but they are 37-10 at home vs. just 23-23 on the road. Denver has lost one home game in each round, but notable is that they have given up 98 points or less four of the last five games here. They'll shoot a lot better today than they did in Game #6 simply because of the return home. Portland has followed up its last five SU wins with an ATS loss. Play on DENVER AAA |
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05-10-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -7 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOUSTON We'll look to stay perfect in this series by going with the Rockets in Game #6. Now laying points may not seem like an especially fruitful venture, considering the way this series has gone so far. All five games have been decided by six points or less, however, the home team is 5-0 straight up as well. The Rockets won Game #3 by five points (OT) and Game #4 by four points. But they are this big a favorite for a reason and that reason is Kevin Durant's calf injury, which will almost certainly keep him out of Game #6. No one should ever root for a player to get injured, but Rockets fans have to feel like this is a bit of "poetic justice" considering this is exactly what happened to them with Chris Paul in last year's Western Conference Finals. After losing Paul, the Rockets lost the next two games and the rest is history. Now they'll hope history repeats itself with the Warriors and Durant. This is the most points Golden State has ever gotten under Steve Kerr in the playoffs. Durant was leading the league in scoring in the playoffs at 35.4 points/game, so the loss of him can't be overstated. The Warriors did not look like the same team once he went down. The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in this series and 9-1-1 ATS their last 11 home games. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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05-09-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers -4 | Top | 108-119 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PORTLAND Look for a big time rebound from the Blazers at home in Game #6 Thursday night. They were blown out in Game #5, losing 124-98. It was easily their worst game in the playoffs and it put them behind the proverbial 8-ball as they'll now have to win the next two games to make the Western Conference Finals. But winning here at home should come pretty easy. Our feeling, much like Denver's first round series against San Antonio, is that home court advantage would play an extremely important role in this series. The Nuggets have the best home record in the league, but are a below .500 team on the road. The Blazers are 36-10 SU in home games this year, though they did lose Game 4 here. But we should see across the board improvement from Game #5 where they only shot 36.7%, easily their worst field goal percentage of any playoff game yet. Something we've harped on previously is that Denver is way worse defensively on the road. They allow less than 103 points/game at the Pepsi Center. On the road, that number jumps to 110.8. The Blazers are a perfect 7-0 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a double digit road loss. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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05-08-19 | Celtics v. Bucks -9 | Top | 91-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MILWAUKEE It's all over but the shouting in Boston as the Celtics are falling apart before our very eyes. Kyrie Irving seems to have lost the trust of his teammates as he's shot them right out of this series. Not that the rest of the team is doing much. In the last three games, Boston has shot 103 of 257, which is barely above 40%. That simply won't get it done against a team like Milwaukee, who just put up 123 points in both games at Boston. The Bucks have clearly emerged as the better team here and may very well be getting Malcolm Brogden back for Game #5 as well. With the series back in Milwaukee, what chance do the Celtics really have. The Bucks are already a league best +12.1 points per game at home this season. This has all the makings of the Celtics waving the proverbial white flag. Milwaukee's superiority just wasn't taken seriously enough. This team is legit. They've gone 38-18-2 ATS their last 58 games. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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05-06-19 | Bucks v. Celtics -1.5 | Top | 113-101 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BOSTON Boston may have looked like the better team in Game 1, but since then Milwaukee has taken control of the series with back to back wins where they scored 123 points. The Celtics shot poorly in both losses, but we'll back them here in a must win spot in Game 4 at home. You not only have to expect better shooting here, but better defense as well. Yes, the Bucks were #1 in the league in scoring in the regular season and have had their way offensively the last two games. But the three-point shooting we've seen from them in the last two games is bound to "taper off." They were north of 40 percent from behind the arc in Games #2 and #3, going 35 of 84. That's high volume, which is not new for them, but the percentage and number of makes is more than usual. There have been only four times all season where Boston has lost three or more straight games. All we have to do here is basically lay a bucket in order for them to avoid doing so in what is obviously their biggest game all year. They've lost consecutive home games just twice all season. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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05-05-19 | Nuggets +3 v. Blazers | Top | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DENVER Nobody wants to lose in the NBA Playoffs, but going down in four overtimes is particularly gut-wrenching. As difficult to "swallow" as Game 3's loss may be for Denver, we like them to bounce back on Sunday. We did have the Nuggets in Game #3 and sure enough they did cover for us, losing by only three points (140-137) as a 4.5-point underdog. Obviously, Friday's game going four overtimes is going to have an effect on both teams here. At least it's a night game, so there will be about 48 hours to recover. Portland is 0-4 ATS off its last four SU wins here in the playoffs. The underdog has also gone 5-2 ATS the past seven meetings between them and Denver. The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS their last four visits to the Moda Center. They've also been the ones to cover five of the last seven meetings and the only two exceptions were Game 2 (shot poorly) and a game back in January where they won by three, but were caught laying -4.5. Take the points. Play on DENVER AAA |
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05-05-19 | Raptors v. 76ers -1.5 | Top | 101-96 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PHILADELPHIA The line has jumped the fence for Game 4 (Philly now favored). While that might mean "less value" on the 76ers, it also means public sentiment has now clearly swung against the Raptors, a team whose past playoff failings may be set to catch up with them again. The 76ers obviously outplayed the Raptors in Game 3, beating them 116-95 and looking like a completely different team on offense than what we saw in the first two games. Perhaps that should have been something we all saw coming as the Sixers do average 118.5 points/game at home, which is noticeably higher than their scoring average on the road (which is just 111.8 points/game). You won't be surprised to learn that the results have been much better for Philly at home compared to the road. At home, they have gone 34-11 and outscored opponents by 8.6 points/game. On the road, they have gone just 23-22 while actually being outscored over the course of the season. Philly has gone 6-1 straight up and against the spread since losing Game 1 in the first round. The line jumping the fence is also notable because the favorite has covered in 21 of the previous 30 meetings. The home team has covered seven of the last nine. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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05-04-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -3.5 | Top | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOUSTON This is obviously as close to must win as it gets for Houston. No team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit to win a series. But lots of teams have won when down 0-2 and they return home. That's the situation for the Rockets here. The good news is James Harden is fine after sustaining an eye injury in Game #2. Despite missing time, Harden still had his best shooting night of any playoff game. It's not as if the Rockets were outclassed in either game at Golden State. Both losses were by just six points. Remember that they took three of four from the Warriors in the regular season and were up three games to two in last year's Western Conference Final. They beat Golden State both times here at home in the regular season. They're also 7-1-1 ATS the last 9 home games. They won the three first round home games by a combined 59 points. The Warriors have failed to cover off any of their last five ATS wins. They are also 1-6 ATS off their last 7 SU wins. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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05-03-19 | Nuggets +4 v. Blazers | Top | 137-140 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DENVER Coming into this series, we said that home court advantage would play a big role, just like it did in the Nuggets' first round series against the Spurs. There, Denver did drop Game 1 at home, but won its next three at the Pepsi Center and wound up advancing after the series went a full seven games. Despite a quick turnaround between series, Denver was able to beat Portland in Game #1, 121-113. But then they lost Game #2, 97-90, so we're all squared up going back to Portland. Homecourt is still important, but it's difficult to imagine Denver playing any worse than it did in Game #2. They shot jut 34.7% overall and were a hideous 6 of 29 from behind the three-point line. They even missed 10 of 26 free throw attempts. We like them getting points in Game #3 as they have covered five of their last seven trips here and they are 6-2-1 ATS the last nine matchups with Portland, no matter the location. Play on DENVER AAA |
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05-02-19 | Raptors -1 v. 76ers | Top | 95-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TORONTO Toronto and Philadelphia had very similar Round 1 experiences. Both lost their respective Game 1's, on their home floor. But then both bounced back to win the next four games and advance. Toronto did so with defense, holding Orlando to an average of 89 points/game in the four wins. Philadelphia did so more with offense, averaging 127.5 points/game vs. Brooklyn. Through two games, this second round series has more closely resembled Toronto's style of play. The Sixers have failed to score 100 points in either game, though they did take Game 2 in Toronto by a score of 94-89. That was their first win in 15 tries up in Canada. Now we move to the City of Brotherly Love. While the 76ers may now have homecourt advantage, we believe the Raptors are still the better team. Philly is a little banged up in the frontcourt as both Joel Embiid and Mike Scott continue to battle injuries. The Raptors have now allowed fewer than 100 points in six straight games. We expect players such as Danny Green and Marc Gasol to play a lot better than they did in Game 2. Those two combined to make only 2 of 14 field goal attempts and the Raptors bench totaled only five points on 2 of 11 shooting. Should be a much better team effort tonight. Toronto is still on a 14-5 ATS run vs. Philadelphia and the last time they dropped back to back games ATS was late March (10-4 ATS overall since). Play on TORONTO AAA |
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04-29-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -4 | Top | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DENVER Denver dropped Game 1 of the last series (vs. San Antonio), but we don't see that happening here. Like the Spurs series, home court advantage figures to play a key role here in Round 2 vs. Portland. The Nuggets had the best home record in the league during the regular season and are now 37-8 straight up at the Pepsi Center. The got "backdoored" in Game 7 by San Antonio, winning by only four in a game they were favored to win by 6.5 points. But don't let that unlucky ATS result cloud the fact they led that game by double digits most of the way. Denver plays a lot better defense at home too. They gave up only 86 points in Game 7 after giving up only 90 in Game 5. For the year, they give up just 102.9 points per game at home, which is more than seven points less than what they give up on the road. Portland isn't quite as subpar as San Antonio on the road, but the Blazers record away from home is only 22-21. The Nuggets were 3-1 against the Blazers in the regular season, although every game was close. But the only time they lost to them was in the second game of a home and home, in Portland. The Trail Blazers are just 1-5-1 ATS the past seven meetings and they now have a problem in the frontcourt. Jusuf Nurkic is already out for the year and now Enes Kanter is dealing with a separated shoulder. Play on DENVER AAA |
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04-28-19 | Rockets +6 v. Warriors | Top | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on HOUSTON It's a familiar matchup on the Western Conference side of the draw, only this year the Rockets and Warriors are playing a round earlier. Last year, the Rockets took the Warriors to the brink of elimination and had a lead at home in Game 7 before wilting. Remember they also didn't have Chris Paul for the final two games of that series. Houston may not have the home court advantage this time around, but they do have Paul back in the lineup and come in as the hotter team. While Golden State surprisingly needed six games to eliminate the Clippers in the first round, the Rockets vanquished the Jazz in just five and are now 10-2 SU/9-3 ATS the past 12 games. One of the two straight up losses was by one point (regular season finale). The Warriors have not been a good team to bet on this season and they are 17-26-1 ATS at home. Taking the points in Game 1 looks to be the way to go. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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04-27-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets -6 | Top | 86-90 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DENVER Historically speaking, home teams enjoy a decided edge in Game 7's in the NBA Playoffs (101-27 straight up record in shot-clock era). Look for that trend to continue with our lone Game 7 of this year's 1st round as Denver hosts San Antonio. The Nuggets are off a 17-point loss in Game 6. But before that, they'd won the last two games by a combined 32 points. Only one game in the entire series has been decided by less than nine points and each of the last three have been decided by 14 points or more. Being able to get a Game 7 at home is what Denver worked for in the regular season. They have the best home record in the league at 36-8 straight up and the numbers confirm they are a much better team here. Not only does scoring jump 6.2 points/game from road to home, their number of points allowed drops by 6.8 points/game. San Antonio (17-27 SU) happens to have the worst road record of any playoff team. We look for bench scoring and three-point shooting to be the key edge for the Nuggets in this winner take all game. Lay the points. Play on DENVER AAA |
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04-25-19 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Spurs | Top | 103-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DENVER The Nuggets were very fortunate not to be down 3-0 in this series as not only did they drop two of the first three games, but their one win (Game 2) saw them erase a 19-point second half deficit, mostly in the 4th quarter where they outscored the Spurs 39-23. But since falling behind by double digits again, early in Game 4, Denver really seems to have taken control of this series. They've won the last two games by a combined 32 points and now have a shot at closing out the Spurs tonight in Game 6. It is a road game, but the Nuggets have already won once here in San Antonio. Game 5 on Tuesday was definitely Denver's best showing in the series. They led by as many as 30 points. Nikola Jokic is almost averaging a triple double in his first ever playoff series and the Spurs appear to have no answer for him. Denver has pretty clearly been the better of these two teams most of this year. The Spurs are only 1-6 ATS their last 7 home games. Play on DENVER AAA |
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04-24-19 | Jazz +8 v. Rockets | Top | 93-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UTAH Utah stayed alive by winning Game 4, handily. They beat the Rockets 107-91 and that margin of victory should have them confident enough to head into Game #5 with a sense that further extending their season is a possibility. We're not saying the Jazz will win this one, but taking the points is the right way to go. Houston did not shoot the ball well either game in Salt Lake City. They shot 38.4% as a team in Game #3 with James Harden missing his first 15 attempts from the field. Then they shot 35.4% in Game #4, collectively missing their final 13 attempts from three-point range. Yes, the series now shifts back to Houston. But the Jazz are going to compete here a lot more than they did in either Games #1 and #2. This is too many points for Houston to lay to a desperate Utah team. Play on UTAH AAA |
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04-23-19 | Thunder +3.5 v. Blazers | Top | 115-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OKC It's probably fair to say that the majority of first round series in the NBA Playoffs have gone "according to script." The way the Rockets handled the Jazz in the first three games of that series was maybe a little surprising. But probably not as surprising to most as the fact that it's Portland up three games to one on Oklahoma City. This was a series where the lower seeded team was actually favored to advance. The Thunder swept the regular season series, winning all four times against the Blazers. Portland also has a key player injured (Jusuf Nurkic). Game 4 is what probably jumped out to most as the Blazers became the first road team to win a game in the series. They held Russell Westbrook without a basket in the second half, which is really stunning. We know that the Thunder have lost the public's trust, but not ours as we like them plus the points facing elimination. Remember they actually closed as the favorite for Game #2 here in Portland, so there's some good value. Play on OKC AAA |
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04-22-19 | Rockets -2.5 v. Jazz | Top | 91-107 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on HOUSTON We also look for Houston to close out Utah Monday night. It's pretty clear that the Jazz are overmatched in this series and Game #3 was basically their "death knell." Losing at home on a night where James Harden shot the ball horribly is not something that can be overcome nor is a 3-0 series deficit. Going back to the end of the regular season, the Rockets have won and covered 9 of the last 10 games. The only loss was by one point to Oklahoma City, which in retrospect was the worst possible thing to happen to the Jazz. That loss caused Houston to drop a spot in the standings, setting up this matchup. Utah would have been a lot better off playing Portland. The Jazz did beat the Rockets in a couple of early season meetings, but have since dropped five straight to them. Like the Pistons, they have shot very poorly in the playoffs (40.1 FG%) and are averaging less than 100 points/game (96.3). We don't even have to lay a big number here like we do with the Bucks. You can bank on Harden having a better shooting night than he did in Game #3. The Rockets look like one of the best teams in the league right now. Play on HOUSTON. AAA |
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04-22-19 | Bucks -12 v. Pistons | Top | 127-104 | Win | 100 | 21 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MILWAUKEE We expect both series to close out tonight, starting in Detroit where the Pistons appear as ill-prepared for the playoffs as any team in recent memory. They have been completely dominated by the Bucks, losing all three games by 16 or more points and there's no reason to believe Game #4 will be any different. Milwaukee is completely superior in every way here and not even the return of Blake Griffin can change that as he's not completely healthy. In the series, the Pistons have been held to an average of 96 points per game on 38.0% shooting, showing that Milwaukee (the East's highest scoring team) can also play some defense. The Bucks are #1 in defensive efficiency in the league in addition to being #1 overall in scoring. They have outscored the Pistons by 72 points through three games. Giannis Antetokounmpo only scored 14 points Saturday, his fewest in any game since January and the Bucks still won by 16. Detroit hasn't won a playoff game since '08 and that certainly won't change here. Play on MILWAUKEE. AAA |
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04-21-19 | Warriors v. Clippers +9 | Top | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on LA CLIPPERS The Clippers have trailed big in all three games so they should feel lucky to only be down 2-1 in the series. Game 2 saw them pull off the greatest comeback in NBA Playoff history, at least in terms of margin overcome (31 points). But they were never really in Game #3. Golden State led by 17 after one quarter and was up 33 entering the fourth. The Warriors have enjoyed a lead of at least 19 points in all three games. But Game #4 should be different. The Clippers shot poorly in Game #3, especially from deep where they went 7 of 32. They shot 37.2% overall, which won't cut it against the Warriors. That's surprising too as LA has been a strong home team all season. Golden State was obviously motivated going into Game #3 after blowing the 31-point lead in Game #2. Will that same motivation be present today? The Warriors are 4-10 ATS off a their previous 14 ATS victories. Play on LA CLIPPERS AAA |
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04-21-19 | Celtics -2 v. Pacers | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BOSTON We look for Boston to finish off the sweep Sunday. It's pretty clear to us at this point that Indiana just can't get consistent scoring nor can they beat Boston. It's not just this series you see. There were also two meetings late in the regular season where the Celtics dominated. Four of the five losses have seen the Pacers held under 100 points. Now they have held the halftime lead in two of the three games in this series and only trailed by two in the other. But they are averaging only 35 points in the second half and that will obviously not cut the mustard. Indiana has only won 4 of its last 12 games overall, so in a way you could see this early playoff flameout coming. In the regular season, it was the defense that was costing the Pacers down the stretch. They allowed 11 of their last 13 opponents to score at least 102 points. Now its the offense that is averaging only 87 points per game in the playoffs/ The Celtics underachieved in the regular season, but are clearly hitting their stride now. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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04-18-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -3.5 | Top | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SAN ANTONIO San Antonio very easily - and probably should - be up 2-0 in this series. After a superb defensive effort allowed them to take Game 1, the Spurs were up by 19 in Game 2 and appeared well on their way to taking both games in Denver. But then Jamal Murray went off for the Nuggets, scoring 21 of his 24 points in the fourth quarter (had started the game 0 for 8). The Nuggets outscored the Spurs 39-23 in the 4th and now we head back to San Antonio tied at one game apiece. While having the league's best home record, Denver is below .500 on the road. San Antonio's home vs. road split is even more pronounced. They should actually be thrilled to have earned a split in Denver, given a 16-25 SU road record. At home they are 32-9 and shoot 41.9% from three-point range. Defensively, the Spurs have made major strides the last couple months. Before the 4th quarter happened Tuesday, it looked like they might hold Denver under 100 pts in two straight games. Going back to 2012, the Nuggets have lost 13 straight here in San Antonio. Play on SAN ANTONIO AAA |
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04-17-19 | Pistons +15 v. Bucks | Top | 99-120 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DETROIT The Pistons appeared ill-prepared for their 1st postseason game since 2016. Playing without Blake Griffin, they were no match for top seed Milwaukee, who thumped them 121 to 86 as 15-point favorites. Detroit last won a playoff game in 2008. If they continue to play the way they did Sunday, that streak will continue into next year. It's not a shocker to see the number at where it is for Game 2. Few will give the Pistons a shot Wednesday, let alone the rest of the series. They've played the Bucks five times this year and five times they have lost, four of those coming by 10 or more points. The three games in Milwaukee have seen them lose by 35, 23 and 23 points. But as the Clippers showed Monday, anything is possible in the playoffs. After a blowout loss is often the best time to bet on a team (zig zag theory!) and while we don't see Detroit winning Game 2, we do expect them to cover. While Griffin seems unlikely to play, Andre Drummond won't be ejected again like he was in Game 1. Generally speaking, this is too many points to lay in the playoffs and the Pistons will play better this time. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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04-16-19 | Magic v. Raptors -9.5 | Top | 82-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TORONTO Toronto's atrocious history in Game 1's continued with a shocking 104-101 loss to Orlando on Saturday. With that result, the Raptors are now 2-13 SU all-time in Game 1's, including 1-10 in Round 1. Kyle Lowry pulled another playoff "disappearing act," in being held SCORELESS for the game on 0 for 7 shooting (all but one attempt was a three-pointer). But that's all water under the bridge now and history suggests the Raptors bounce back Tuesday in Game 2. Outside of series against LeBron James' Cleveland teams, Toronto has won four straight Game 2s. All four were played at home. Lowry has his own personal history of following terrible playoff performances with a good one. The Raptors actually outshot the Magic overall in Game 1, but were worse from behind the arc and at the free throw line. You can't deny that Orlando has been "better than advertised" in the second half of the season, however, they got their road win. The zig zag theory isn't perfect, but I'll side with Toronto here. Remember they have Kawhi Leonard this year. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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04-15-19 | Nets v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 123-145 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PHILADELPHIA Forget about the talk about cell phones, Philadelphia was flat out embarrassed on its home court in Game 1, losing to the Nets 111-102. Aside from early in the 1st quarter, the Sixers never led and were down by as many 17. They should bounce back for Game 2. They certainly aren't likely to miss 22 of 25 three-pointers again like they did Saturday. Joel Embiid's knee remains a question mark, but it's hard not to like the Sixers in this spot considering a 31-11 SU home record and they are 31-15 ATS L46 here against teams that have losing road records. Brooklyn is still only 20-22 straight up on the road this year and is probably "content" having taken Game 1. The Nets got 59 points from their bench in Game 1. Similar to Philly's woeful three-point shooting, that is unlikely to be repeated tonight. The 76ers are still the better team and should win comfortably at home. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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04-14-19 | Jazz v. Rockets -6 | Top | 90-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOUSTON Houston ended up finishing fourth in the Western Conference, but this was one of the hottest teams in the league down the stretch. They'd won and covered six in a row before losing by one to Oklahoma City in the final regular season game. That one loss is what dropped them from third to fourth and while it means playing a gritty Utah team, the Rockets simply have too much talent to falter here. No team was better in the second half of the season. They went 20-5 posting the best net efficiency rating (+10.7) as they were second overall in both offensive and defensive efficiency. James Harden leads all players in scoring with a 36.1 points per game average this season. Remember the Rockets eliminated the Jazz from last year's playoffs, winning in just five games. The four wins were all of the double digit variety and came by an average of 14.5 points per game. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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04-09-19 | Blazers -9.5 v. Lakers | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PORTLAND The Lakers are 2-1 against the Blazers, but that's with LeBron James playing all three games. The King was officially shutdown for the year last week and his teammates packed it long before that. Though they've won two straight, beating the Clippers by five and Jazz by four, the Lakers have been a terrible team to bet on this season. Only the Knicks have a worse ATS mark. Four would-be starters, including James, aren't playing anymore. Without Jusuf Nurkic, the Blazers are a little shorthanded as well, but they just got back C.J. McCollum and will be looking to clinch homecourt advantage for the first round of the playoffs tonight. All they need is a win. While covering the spread might seem like more of a challenge, Portland is 10-2 ATS its last 12 road games against teams that give up 110 or more points per game. They win big tonight. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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04-07-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers -3 | Top | 108-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND This line has already risen quite dramatically, but we're still anticipating a big Portland win. This is the second leg of a home and home between the Blazers and Nuggets. Denver won at home, 119-110, on Friday as Portland was short-handed. They played without Jusuf Nurkic, C.J. McCollum and Seth Curry. Damian Lillard was held to 14 points on 3 of 14 shooting. Even without the some of those key players still, the Blazers should bounce back at home. Denver could rest some of its starters, which is why the line is on the move. Portland is also 30-9 at home this season and hoping to avoid what would be a season sweep by the Nuggets. The first three games have all been decided by single digits with two of them by a total of 4 points. So it's not as if Portland hasn't been competitive. They need a strong finish to the regular season to clinch home court advantage for the opening round of the playoffs. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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04-05-19 | Heat -2.5 v. Wolves | Top | 109-111 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MIAMI It's unusual to say, but Miami is probably glad that this very crucial game is taking place on the road. After dropping a decision at home to Boston two nights ago, the Heat's home record fell to 18-22 straight up and 15-23-2 against the spread. On the road, they are 20-18 SU and 23-15 ATS. You don't see a team with a better record on the road than at home very often, but this is definitely an instance of that. The Heat come into this game a 1/2 game back of both Brooklyn and Orlando. They need to pass at least one of those two teams to get into the playoffs. Minnesota should provide them such an opportunity. The Timberwolves already know when their season will end and that's a week from now in Denver, the final game of the regular season. For the 13th time in 14 years, they aren't going to the playoffs. They did win Wednesday night at Dallas, but have put together back to back wins just one time since the All Star Break. That came in a pair of home games against Washington and New York, two very bad teams. Miami has to have this one and they'll get it. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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04-05-19 | Spurs -6 v. Wizards | Top | 129-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SAN ANTONIO San Antonio is in 8th place in the Western Conference, which would mean a first round series against Golden State. No team wants to be the first to draw the Warriors, so expect the Spurs to do everything they can to move up. That starts with winning this game in Washington against a Wizards team that is just playing out the string. It is likely the Wizards will finish this season with their lowest win total since 2012-13. They just lost here at home to Chicago after blowing an eight-point fourth quarter lead. That's demoralizing. As for San Antonio's motivation, they will have plenty. Greg Popovich was tossed 63 seconds into an eventual 113-85 loss to the Nuggets on Wednesday. Expect him and his team to respond like you might think. The Spurs shoot a league-best 39.2% from three-point range, so they should bury a Wizards team that is among the very worst in the league defensively. Play on SAN ANTONIO AAA |
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04-03-19 | Knicks v. Magic -12.5 | Top | 100-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ORLANDO The four-team race for the last three spots in the Eastern Conference Playoffs (will be one team left out) is really heating up. Orlando has one fewer game remaining than Detroit, Brooklyn and Miami, which is a problem considering they are the ones currently on the "outside looking in." All four teams lost on Monday after all four had won on Saturday. So that means no ground was made up by the Magic and they still trail the Heat by a half game with only four left to play. But they have a golden opportunity to make up some ground Wednesday when they host the league-worst Knicks. (The three teams Orlando is chasing also play at home tonight, but against top five teams from the East). We look for Orlando to win big here. New York is off a rare win on Monday, which will make them prone to a letdown. There's no point for the Knicks to keep winning at this point and risk harming their draft position. This is obviously a lot of points to lay with a Magic team that's not normally this large of a favorite. But not only have they won seven straight home games, four of the last five wins have been by double digits and the last one was by 21 over Philadelphia. The Magic also have revenge for a five-point loss at the Garden back in February. Play on ORLANDO AAA |
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04-02-19 | Nuggets +8 v. Warriors | Top | 102-116 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DENVER Since making an early season statement at Golden State's expense, Denver has not fared well in two subsequent meetings. They lost at home 142-111 in January and then 122-105 out in Oakland last month. The Nuggets 1-2 YTD record against the Warriors is the difference in the standings right now as GSW comes in one game ahead in the race for the #1 seed. Denver suffered a pretty embarrassing home loss to Washington in its last game as they were held to only 90 points total and 28 in the second half. Whether or not that was looking ahead to this game we don't know, but look for a much better performance tonight. Will Denver win? Not sure. But they can definitely stay well within this generous number set by the oddsmakers. Golden State has a poor ATS record overall this season (32-43-1) and especially at home (14-23-1). We're not sure what it is about Tuesday, but the Warriors are 3-19 ATS at home on Tuesday nights the past three seasons. They've lost four of their last eight home games outright. Take the points tonight. Play on DENVER AAA |
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03-30-19 | Blazers v. Pistons -5 | Top | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DETROIT Portland made us look a little foolish last night by beating Atlanta by 20 points. We totally overestimated the Hawks in that situation, which with the benefit of hindsight seems like a bad idea all around. But after beating Chicago and Atlanta, the Blazers now step up to face Detroit. Unlike those last two Portland opponents, the Pistons are trying to make the playoffs. They're 6th in the East, but the margin for error is still slim. Portland finds itself playing its third road game in four days, without Jusuf Nurkic. Again, Nurkic's absence turned out not to be a big deal against the Bulls and Hawks. But Detroit will make Portland pay. The Pistons have covered five straight and just beat Orlando by 17 in an impressive win two nights ago. The Blazers are 1-6 SU/ATS in the second of back to back road games this year. Not only does Portland not have Nurkic the rest of the season, C.J. McCollum is out of the lineup as well. This team is severely shorthanded, not rested and on the road. That's a lousy combination when facing a better than average opponent. Detroit is 24-13 in home games where they see a dramatic increase on the offensive end. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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03-29-19 | Blazers v. Hawks +3 | Top | 118-98 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ATLANTA The Hawks are a live dog in this situation as Portland is still adjusting to life without Jusuf Nurkic. Perhaps inspired by their injured teammate, the Blazers did win two nights ago by a score of 118-98. But that was against a terrible Chicago team. Nurkic isn't coming back as he suffered a horrible season-ending leg injury in Monday's double overtime victory against Brooklyn. His absence wasn't felt against the Bulls, but will be here in Atlanta. It's been a trying week with a double overtime game, never mind also losing arguably their best player not named Damian Lillard. Nurkic's replacement, Enes Kanter, is a major liability on the defensive end for a team that is already the weakest of the eight Western Conference playoff teams on that end of the floor. The Blazers road record this season is only 18-18 SU, a far cry from their 29-9 SU mark at home. By the way, Atlanta has quietly won three straight games. Two of those wins were against Philly and Utah. They are 7-2 ATS the last nine games overall. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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03-26-19 | Pistons v. Nuggets -7 | Top | 92-95 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DENVER Denver is off an embarrassing loss as Indiana as they went down 124-88 in one of their uglier performances all year. Such a lousy effort was ill-timed with them currently locked into a tight battle with Golden State for the #1 seed in the Western Conference. Right now, the Nuggets trail the Warriors by one-half game, so a win tonight would square things up with only nine games left in the regular season. Motivation should not be an issue here at home where the Nuggets are 30-6 SU, 23-13 ATS and winning by an average of almost 11 points per game. They've got revenge on the mind tonight as well due to having lost in Detroit (by 26!) early in February. This season has seen Denver go a perfect 9-0 against the number at home when seeking revenge for a loss where they were a road favorite. Even though they're a likely playoff team in the East, the Pistons have been quite shaky on the road where their record for the season is only 14-23. They've lost five of their last six games away from home, including some real wretched efforts, and the one win was against Phoenix. The Mile High City is one of the LAST places in the league they're likely to turn that around. Play on DENVER AAA |
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03-26-19 | Clippers -2.5 v. Wolves | Top | 122-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the CLIPPERS The Clippers are hot right now. They've won 10 of their last 11 and five straight. Tonight, they'll hope to avoid what happened the last time they were on a five-game win streak and that's lose. That last loss occurred at home against Portland, but tonight they'll be facing much weaker competition in the form of Minnesota. Even though this is a road game, Los Angeles still should roll considering they have a lot to play for and the Timberwolves do not. Minny was officially eliminated from playoff contention last week, an appropriate result for such a disappointing season. They'd lost five in a row before winning at Memphis on Saturday. While the Timberwolves have a 23-11 record at home, we just don't see them getting the cash tonight. Not with trends favoring the road team, such as the Clippers 11-4-1 ATS mark their past 16 trips to Minneapolis. That's part of a larger 20-8-1 ATS run by the road team in the series and the favorite has cashed four of the last five times they've played. Play on LA CLIPPERS AAA |
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03-26-19 | Hawks +1 v. Pelicans | Top | 130-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ATLANTA The Hawks are a perfect 8-0 against the spread this season when they're playing on the road and off a win at home. They just beat Philadelphia, 129-127, at home on Saturday. They pulled the upset (were +7) thanks to Trae Young's game winner in the final seconds. It was Atlanta's second straight win over a playoff team as they also beat Utah (at home) last week. Now they're on the road, but they get a break - some would say a big one - as New Orleans looks to have totally given up on the season. Looking back, the Anthony Davis trade request definitely sunk this team's season, which is too bad as they were a playoff contender before Davis made his feelings known. Now the Pelicans have lost eight of nine, one of the games coming against the Hawks on March 10 when they lost 126-118. Defense has been almost non-existent for New Orleans, who is giving up an incredible number of points lately. Those last nine games have seen them allow: 114, 127, 128, 130, 122, 138, 125, 119 and 113 points. It hasn't helped that in the last two games they've been held to 96 and 90 themselves. Atlanta will want this one more. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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03-25-19 | Nets v. Blazers -6 | Top | 144-148 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PORTLAND Portland scratched out a cover for us on Saturday, beating Detroit by five (were laying -4.5). It's a slightly larger spread tonight against Brooklyn, but that should be the case even though the Nets have covered three in a row. One of those games was a loss (at LAC) and then the Nets pulled out two close wins against Sacramento and the Lakers. One of those games (Sacramento), they trailed by 25 in the fourth quarter. Tonight will be their sixth straight road game, a trip which started 12 days ago in Oklahoma City. Portland has won six of seven with three straight wins coming at home. The Blazers are a very good bet at home considering they're 39-19-1 ATS the last 59 times playing here. They've already won in Brooklyn, by double digits, last month. They are 28-9 SU here this season, winning by an average margin of 8.2 points per game and most of those games come against Western Conference teams. Brooklyn being a likely playoff team is simply a byproduct of playing in the weak Eastern Conference. The Nets are 21-4 straight game in games where they are favored, but only 17-32 when they are the underdog. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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03-23-19 | Pistons v. Blazers -5 | Top | 112-117 | Push | 0 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PORTLAND Portland seems too short of a favorite here as they really are a much better team than Detroit. Based on the way they are priced though, you'd think the oddsmakers were of the opinion that these teams were relative equals. That is certainly not the case however as the Blazers play in the tougher conference, have a better overall record and vastly superior point differential. Even with an 8-3 March, the Pistons have still been outscored on the year and recent efforts on the road leave a lot to be desired. They did just win in Phoenix on Thursday, but before that lost in Cleveland and were also held to 75 and 74 points in key losses at Brooklyn and Miami. Detroit is only 14-21 SU on the road and lacks the offensive firepower to keep up with a Portland team that averages 117.1 points per game in its home arena. The Blazers have a home record of 27-9 SU and are coming off back to back eight point wins over Indiana and Dallas. They've won five of six overall with every win coming by at least eight points. The final score of Detroit's last game is a little misleading (they won by 20 points) as they were actually down at halftime. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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03-21-19 | Nuggets -8.5 v. Wizards | Top | 113-108 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DENVER Washington was going to be in a tough spot here, regardless of last night's outcome. But losing 126-120 in overtime at Chicago was probably Wednesday's least ideal outcome. After Bradley Beal tied the game in the closing seconds of regulation, the Wizards went 0 for 6 from the field in OT. It was their third loss in four games and this one really stung considering how bad the Bulls are and that they were without two of their top players. Now Washington has to deal with Denver, one of the top teams in the league. Sure this one is at home, but the Wizards are just 2-5 ATS their last seven games vs. teams with winning records. The Nuggets come in having won four in a row. They just took care of the Celtics, in Boston, and now trail Golden State by just one-half game for first place in the Western Conference. They've also been off for the last two days. This is probably one of the worst possible opponents for the Nuggets tonight, home or not. Play on DENVER AAA |
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03-20-19 | Wizards -2 v. Bulls | Top | 120-126 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON The Wizards are still technically alive in the Eastern Conference playoff race, but on life support. To remain viable, they must win tonight in Chicago. Fortunately, the task should not be that difficult against a Bulls team that is just 8-27 at home and getting consistently hammered. The Bulls did win their last time out, beating Phoenix 116-101 on the road. But before that it was five straight losses, three of them by 16 or more points. The last time these teams played was here in the Windy City and Washington won 134-125 with a similar pointspread. It's a but suspicious as to why the oddsmakers wouldn't have adjusted. At least a little bit. Since that time, the Wizards are just 1-6 on the road and they just lost 116-95 at home to Utah. But they'd also gone 7-1 ATS in the eight games prior to getting blown out by the Jazz. This is a game the Wizards should win with ease. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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03-20-19 | Pelicans v. Magic -6.5 | Top | 96-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ORLANDO Orlando needs to take advantage here of a New Orleans team that has basically thrown in the towel on the 2018-19 season. Anthony Davis has been relegated to limited minutes in the wake of his highly publicized trade demand and the team's fortunes essentially sunk right after those demands were made. The Pelicans are officially eliminated from playoff contention in the Western Conference as they've fallen to 11 games below .500. Defense is non-existent here with them allowing 116.1 points per game, which is tied for the most in the West. They've allowed 122 or more points in six straight games. Orlando has held its last two opponents under 100 and its last four all to 105 or less. This will be the Magic's third straight game at home vs. a non-playoff team. They've won the previous two by double digits. The Magic are 7-2 ATS their last nine home games. Play on ORLANDO AAA |
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03-19-19 | Nets v. Kings -4 | Top | 123-121 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SACRAMENTO One of these teams (Brooklyn) will likely make the playoffs while the other (Sacramento) will not. But a pretty strong case can be made that the non-playoff team is better and the respective designations are simply a byproduct of the two uneven conferences. Sacramento, despite having little shot at making the playoffs, is in a good spot here. They've covered three straight, including a 129-102 win over the Bulls on Sunday. Shockingly, the Kings have been an outstanding bet when favored this season, going 15-4 ATS (17-2 SU). They are favored here to beat a Brooklyn team that seems to have hit a wall. A seven-game road trip has opened with three straight losses as the Nets have fallen to 11-16 SU vs. the Western Conference. Like Sacramento, the Nets typically take care of business when they're favored. They've been favored 24 times and won 20 of those games. But as an underdog, they're just 16-32 SU. With it being a short number, we'll lay it! Play on SACRAMENTO AAA |
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03-18-19 | Jazz -4 v. Wizards | Top | 116-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UTAH Utah comes to Washington D.C. in search of a win and should get it at the expense of the struggling Wizards. The Jazz have won and covered each of their last three games. While all three games were against lesser opponents, they did win by double digits every time. All three wins were by at least 16 points, including a wire to wire beatdown of Brooklyn on Saturday. Washington has actually gone 7-1 ATS its last eight games and just put up 135 points in a surprising performance against Memphis two days ago. But it's been a long time since they were able to beat the Jazz. The last five meetings have all gone Utah's way and this one will too, by a rather comfortable margin, considering how poor the Wizards are defensively. Utah has covered 7 of its last 9 games vs. teams with losing records. Play on UTAH AAA |
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03-17-19 | Hornets +4 v. Heat | Top | 75-93 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CHARLOTTE Miami really let one slip away Friday night. They were facing Milwaukee and up by 20 points at halftime. This was at home too. The Bucks were 1-100 SU all-time when trailing by 20+ at the half, including 0-77 on the road. The Heat were 51-0 SU all-time when leading by that much at half, here at home. Guess what? They lost 113-98, becoming the 1st team in league history to be up 20 at the half and still lose by 15. It's going to be very difficult to get over that loss. Now in comes Charlotte, who directly gained from the Heat's pain. Also on Friday, Charlotte beat Washington to pull within one game of Miami, who holds the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Hornets have some revenge on the mind Sunday as they just lost at home to Miami, 91-84, on March 6th. It's important to note that the Heat actually play worse at home (where they have a losing SU record) as opposed to the road. They are just 4-9 ATS the last 13 games at home. They are 2-9 ATS their previous 11 division games. We say to take the points here. Play on CHARLOTTE AAA |
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03-16-19 | Grizzlies +3 v. Wizards | Top | 128-135 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MEMPHIS Memphis is catching points and catching Washington in the second game of a back to back tonight. That's a combo that works in their favor. The Wizards lost last night, falling 116-110 to Charlotte right here at home. Bradley Beal scored 40 points, but the Wizards were down 14 at the end of the first quarter and 17 heading into the fourth. Memphis is rested as they've been off for two days and likely motivated considering they were torched for 132 points by Atlanta of all teams in their last game. Going into that game, the Grizzlies were #1 in the league in scoring defense. It was the most points they allowed in any game all year. A bounce back seems likely given the way they had been playing. Memphis is 4-2 SU/5-1 ATS this month with wins over both Portland and Utah. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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03-13-19 | Pistons +1.5 v. Heat | Top | 74-108 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DETROIT On Monday, the Pistons chose a poor time to turn in their worst effort in months. They were dominated from start to finish by the Nets in a 103-75 loss. That cost them sixth place in the Eastern Conference, perhaps a meaningless distinction, but beating the teams you're competing with for playoff positioning is important this time of year. It's a similar matchup for Wednesday as the Pistons travel to Miami. The Heat are in 8th place right now, three games back of the Pistons. But that precious "breathing room" isn't something Detroit wants to be conceding right now. The good news is the Pistons haven't dropped back to back games since the All Star Break. They've gone 12-3 SU the last 15 games and the last time they were off a loss, they responded with a 129-93 win, on the road no less. Miami has actually played worse at home this year (15-19 SU) than on the road (16-16) and just gave up 125 points on almost 57% shooting Sunday to Toronto. So Detroit should shoot a lot better here than they did vs. Brooklyn, a game they finished 27% from the field. The previous three games all saw them shoot better than 53.5%. The Pistons are the better team here. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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03-12-19 | Knicks v. Pacers -11.5 | Top | 98-103 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on INDIANA It certainly looks like it will be a tough three-way fight for the #3 seed in the Eastern Conference between Indiana, Philadelphia and Boston. Getting that #3 seed is crucial, not only for the home court advantage in the 1st round of playoffs, but it also allows that team to avoid playing either of the other two teams in question. Indiana has done itself no favors by losing its last two games, but they have a certified "layup" tonight when they host the league-worst Knicks. The two games that the Pacers just lost both came on the road and were against Milwaukee and Philadelphia. At home, this team is 25-9 SU and holding opponents to almost 100 PPG (100.1 to be exact). I expect the Pacers offense to be MUCH better tonight than it was against the Bucks and Sixers, who both held them under 100 points. The Knicks are atrocious defensively as they give up 114.5 PPG on the road. After winning three of four surrounding the All Star Break, New York has reverted to its losing ways by dropping six straight games. They've been held below 100 in three straight and those games were against teams that aren't even good defensively. The three teams (Suns, Kings, Timberwolves) all actually rank in the bottom 10 in points allowed. The Knicks have lost 38 of their last 43 games. Play on INDIANA AAA |
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03-11-19 | Pistons +2 v. Nets | Top | 75-103 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DETROIT Both of these teams are trying to get into the playoffs, which (even in the Eastern Conference) would be considered a significant achievement. The Pistons have made the playoffs only once (2016) in the last decade and have not won a playoff series since their run of six straight Eastern Conference Finals, which ended in '08. The Nets have missed the playoffs 8 of the last 11 years including each of the last three. So the fact both might make it makes this an important game. Detroit is simply playing better right now. Their 131-108 win over the Bulls yesterday puts them an impressive 5-0 SU/ATS in March and 12-2 SU (11-3 ATS) their last 14 games overall. Brooklyn has won three straight, but had won only 5 of its previous 15 games before that. They are also 1-4 ATS so far this month. You might think that the Pistons are at a bit of a disadvantage playing in the second game of a back to back, but it was an early game Sunday and an easy victory. The Pistons are 6-3 ATS playing without rest anyway and averaging 123 PPG in March on 52.5% shooting. They are a tough team to beat right now. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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03-08-19 | Mavs v. Magic -7 | Top | 106-111 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ORLANDO Orlando is trying to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, which is an achievable goal as they are just one game back of eighth place Miami. If they were to accomplish the goal, it would be the first time in the playoffs for the Magic since the Dwight Howard era, which ended back in 2012. That's a serious drought, so while we can talk about how depth shy the East is this year, that hardly matters to the Magic. Dallas is not going to make the playoffs out West and if there was any thought that they might make a late run, that's been killed by them winning just once in the last nine games. Recently, they've taken some very terrible losses, one by 30 at home to Memphis and another by 39 at Brooklyn. The Mavs only have six road wins all year, which is tied for the second fewest in the league. Orlando has dropped two in a row, but both games were on the road. Tonight is their only home game for the first 13 days of March, so they should play well. Don't be afraid to lay the points as they are in a good spot here. Play on ORLANDO AAA |
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03-06-19 | Celtics v. Kings +1.5 | Top | 111-109 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SACRAMENTO Expect the narrative of "BOSTON IS BACK" to start flying after the Celtics just handed Golden State its worst home loss EVER (33 points) under Steve Kerr. But with a quick turnaround, against a Sacramento team that has been a major surprised, the good times may not last long. Let's not forget the Celtics had lost five of six since the All Star Break prior to last night's shocking triumph out in Oakland. The Kings have the league's 2nd best ATS record at 37-26 and that includes a 22-11 mark at home. The fact that they're no longer favored (line jumped the fence after Boston won last night) is a little disappointing based on the fact they are 15-2 SU/13-4 ATS as chalk. The Kings did a good job defensively in their last game. Granted, it was the Knicks, but Boston is only 3-7 ATS when playing the second night of a back to back and they average just 105 PPG. Play on SACRAMENTO AAA |
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03-06-19 | 76ers v. Bulls +5.5 | Top | 107-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CHICAGO This is the second night of a back to back for both teams. Philly won last night, beating Orlando 114-106, while Chicago lost 105-96 to Indiana. Those results are pretty "par for the course" for the respective seasons the two teams are having, but we like the Bulls getting points at home tonight. The 76ers are nowhere near as strong on the road (16-14) as they are at home (25-9) and laying points on the road can certainly be tricky. Joel Embiid is still absent from the Philly lineup, leaving them very thin in the frontcourt. They were lucky to have a strong 1st half last night vs. Orlando (scored 70 pts) as they only scored 44 in the 2nd half. Meanwhile, Chicago had the lead with just over seven minutes to go last night in Indiana before wilting down the stretch. They'd also won five of their previous seven games. An upset here is a real possibility. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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03-06-19 | Wolves v. Pistons -5.5 | Top | 114-131 | Win | 101 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DETROIT Though they did beat Oklahoma City last night, this is going to be a really tough spot for Minnesota here. That was a home game vs. the Thunder and now it's back on the road where they've lost three in a row and are just 9-24 this season. Detroit has really started to gain some steam, winning 9 of its last 11, and both losses took place on the road. All things considered, laying a short number like this seems to be a "no-brainer." The Pistons have had two days off to prepare and just beat the Raptors. Making that win even more impressive is the fact they were playing the second night of a back to back. The Timberwolves are just 2-7 SU in that scenario this season with all seven losses taking place out on the road. The T'wolves are terrible defensively and the Pistons have not lost a home game since Feb 2. This is a big game for Detroit as a win gets them above .500 for the first time since Dec 19. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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03-05-19 | Rockets +3.5 v. Raptors | Top | 107-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on HOUSTON We won by taking the Rockets Sunday in Boston and now they head up to Canada to face another Eastern Conference power, that obviously being the Raptors. Boston's recent struggles made them an easy fade against a Houston squad that has clearly found its stride during a five game win streak. Beating a better Toronto team may prove more difficult, but given the ease with which the Rockets downed the Celtics (won by 11 and it wasn't even really that close), simply winning here would not be that "big of a deal." The Rockets are now 19-9 SU when James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Capella are all in the starting lineup. That threesome being on the floor together was crucial in the Rockets finishing last season with the best record in the regular season. Toronto just lost to Detroit over the weekend. There was no Kawhi Leonard in that game, but him being back tonight won't be enough to get by this red hot Houston team. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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03-04-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -1 | Top | 103-104 | Push | 0 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN ANTONIO Denver is off a couple of head scratching defeats, both at home no less. One was to Utah, which would seem like not that big of a deal, but the Jazz were playing short-handed in that game. But more puzzling was the Nuggets losing to the Pelicans on Saturday, as 12.5-point favorites, game where they didn't even have to face Anthony Davis. I said to take New Orleans plus the points in that one and even I was surprised at the final result, especially considering NO trailed by as many as 19 at one point. Now the Nuggets must to go to San Antonio where the Spurs have won back to back games. They beat a hot Detroit team and a very good Oklahoma City team, both at home, in those last two games. This win streak comes on the heels of the annual "Rodeo Road Trip" which went very poorly vs. the Spurs this year (1-7 SU and ATS). The Spurs have now won six straight home games. These teams split a home and home back in late December with the home team winning both games. Look for that trend to continue here. Play on SAN ANTONIO AAA |
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03-03-19 | Rockets +2.5 v. Celtics | Top | 115-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on HOUSTON The Celtics remain a clear fade for us as even when they won Friday night vs. Washington, they still trailed in the second half. That win came on the heels of a four-game losing streak to start the 2nd half of the season. We'd just played against them Wednesday when they lost at home to Portland. It's a similar setup Sunday as they welcome in a Houston team that has won four in a row. Boston couldn't beat the Blazers (who were on a similar win streak) and it's tough seeing them beating the Rockets either. In the five games since All Star Weekend concluded, the Celtics are averaging only 101.4 points per game and have been held under the century mark three times. Houston has averaged 116.4 points per game since the break, topping 118 each of the last four games. The Rockets were short-handed for their last game, but still found a way to win on the road despite trailing Miami by as much as 21 points in the second half. James Harden scored 58 points in the come from behind win. Houston won the season's first meeting 127-113 and you should expect a similar type score today. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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03-02-19 | Pelicans +13.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 120-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on New Orleans When looking at this line, you probably could have guessed that Anthony Davis will be sitting out for the Pelicans. You would be correct as the team played last night - and won - beating Phoenix 130-116. But given what a distraction Davis has become, maybe his absence isn't all that it's "cracked up to be?" The Pelicans shot the ball ridiculously well Friday night, especially from three-point range. It won't be that easy tonight in Denver, but they're also now getting a boatload of points. The Nuggets suffered a rare home defeat at the hands of Utah (who was short-handed) on Thursday, snapping a nine-game win streak here. Maybe the situation isn't all that ideal for New Orleans, but the pointspread is far too generous for a team that has covered 10 of its last 14 games. New Orleans usually scores a lot, whether Davis is in the lineup or not, and that makes covering against them as double digit chalk problematic to say the least. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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02-28-19 | 76ers v. Thunder -7.5 | Top | 108-104 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OKLAHOMA CITY Oklahoma City has not covered any of its last four contests. The most recent one was a 121-112 loss at Denver. The previous three all saw them fail to cover as a favorite. The only SU win in this stretch was a double overtime game vs. Utah. Today, they'll host a Philadelphia team that has had its own problems since returning from All Star Weekend. The Sixers have won two of the games, but barely as they beat Miami by four and New Orleans by only one. Depending when one bet that New Orleans game, it could have been a win or loss. Using the closing line of Sixers -2.5, it would be the third straight ATS loss for the team. I think some may be surprised over the size of this line, but remember Philly still doesn't have Joel Embiid. With a healthy Embiid in the lineup, they lost to the Thunder last month. They also won't have Boban Marjanovic in the lineup tonight. But perhaps more pertinent of all here is the Thunder's 19-game win streak over the Sixers, which is the longest active streak by one team over another in the league. Philly has beaten OKC just one time since the move from Seattle -- in 2008. Love the Thunder here as they are due to break out. Play on OKLAHOMA CITY AAA |
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02-27-19 | Blazers +3 v. Celtics | Top | 97-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Portland I think its pretty apparent that Boston has a lot of problems going on right now. Last night, they were handed their worst defeat of the season, by Toronto, 118-95. They have little time to sulk as tonight they return home to face the red-hot Blazers. The Celtics are now 0-3 since the break and rapidly running out of excuses. Now all three losses did take place on the road. But Portland has had no such difficulty winning on the road, going 3-0 there since the break. It's a four-game win streak overall for the Blazers, who have also covered the spread in all four games. The latest win came in Cleveland Monday night by a score of 123-110. When coming off a double digit victory this season, Portland has gone 16-5 ATS in its next game. Given the recent form of the two teams here, I don't know how one can make a case for Boston, who is also 3-6 ATS playing in the second night of a back to back. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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02-25-19 | 76ers v. Pelicans -1.5 | Top | 111-110 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NEW ORLEANS I've bet against Philadelphia each of their last two games and gone 2-0 ATS. They barely got by Miami, winning by just four points at home. Then they got blown out by Portland, also at home. Now they take their act on the road and one player that won't be making the trek to the Big Easy is Joel Embiid. Embiid has missed those last two games, so that helps explain the slide. But giving up 130 points to the Blazers was definitely not a good look, Embiid or no Embiid. New Orleans just beat the Lakers Saturday night and did so with Anthony Davis not even suiting up. Davis should play tonight and he'd join seven teammates that were in double figures vs. LA, a 128-point effort that included the Pelicans highest scoring 1st quarter (43 points) all season. The Pelicans have an 18-11 record at home and thus looking like a strong play on the Monday card. Philly has gotten to play six out of its last seven games at home with the one road game coming against the Knicks. Their record is only .500 (14-14 SU) on the road. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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02-25-19 | Pacers v. Pistons -2.5 | Top | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DETROIT Initially, things weren't looking so good for Indiana without Victor Oladipo. They lost the first four games after it was announced their leading scorer was done for the year with a knee injury. But since then, the Pacers are 8-1 with the only loss coming to the team with the league's best record, Milwaukee. They've gone 7-2 ATS in those games. But on Monday, it appears as if they'll have to overcome more injuries with Myles Turner and Tyreke Evans still on the questionable list. They'll also have to overcome a Detroit team that is starting to build some of its own momentum after winning five out of its last six. That win streak has the Pistons in the coveted eighth spot in the Eastern Conference. They just went on the road and whipped Miami by 23 points. Tonight is a big revenge game in the Motor City as the Pistons lost to the Pacers by 37 back in December. Indiana is only 1-4 ATS on the division road and I think they are poised to lose another tonight. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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02-23-19 | Grizzlies v. Cavs -2 | Top | 107-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CLEVELAND Cleveland is actually favored here as they are coming off a win and Memphis is off a loss, last night, to the Clippers. While the idea of the Cavs laying points may scare off some, I think the situation calls for it as their opponents are both unrested and incredibly short-handed. Going on the road in the second night of a back to back is bad enough for a slumping Memphis team, but doing so without Jaren Jackson Jr, who was the #4 pick in last year's draft, makes things even tougher. The Grizzlies have lost 15 of their last 19 games anyway and are 9-21 SU on the road. The fact that they blew a fourth quarter lead last night makes this even tougher. Cleveland played one of its better games of the season Thursday night, beating Phoenix 111-98 and they led comfortably most of the way. Kevin Love is now back, so the Cavs aren't as bad as they look on paper. Memphis is 2-6 SU and ATS in the second game of a back to back this year. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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02-23-19 | Blazers +2 v. 76ers | Top | 130-115 | Win | 100 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PORTLAND Despite an off-night from leading scorer Damian Lillard, the Blazers were still able to go on the road and beat Brooklyn - handily - Thursday night, winning by a final score of 113-99. They were just three-point favorites. One has to imagine Lillard will play better here, even if it is against a tougher opponent. He shot just 5 of 21 against the Nets. This is a 26.0 PPG scorer mind you, now backed by Enes Kanter, who contributed 18 pts and nine rebounds in his Blazers debut. As for Philly, they struggled to beat the Heat here Thursday night as they were without Joel Embiid. It looks like they'll be without their starting center for at least a week, so those struggles could continue even with a strong-looking roster. They trailed Miami going into the fourth quarter and with as little as 1:56 to go. While a late surge got them the win, the Sixers still failed to cover, which was good as I bet against them. I'll do the same again here knowing that Portland crushed them earlier this year by 34, another game where the Sixers didn't have Embiid. Philly is a season-best 17 games over .500 right now and likely to drop a game or two. The Blazers are 14-5 ATS coming off a double digit win. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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02-22-19 | Wizards v. Hornets -5 | Top | 110-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CHARLOTTE Charlotte starts the 2nd half of their season with a key division home game vs. Washington. The Hornets, unlike the Wizards, are likely playoff bound this year thanks to a watered down Eastern Conference. But just because the East is so watered down doesn't mean the Hornets should take a playoff berth for granted. They lost four of five going into All Star Weekend, but now return home where they are a very strong 19-9 SU while averaging 113.3 PPG. Though the loss took place a while ago, there is revenge in play here with the Wizards, who beat the Hornets 130-126 back on December 29th. But that was in D.C. and back when Washington still had John Wall in the lineup (Wall is done for the year). The Wiz are a really lousy road team (8-23 SU) and road games where the oddsmakers expect a lot of scoring have REALLY been their undoing. The team's ATS record in away games with a total of at least 230 pts is 0-6-1 and they've lost all seven straight up. Charlotte is 1-9 SU in games where Tony Parker doesn't play, but he's expected back in the lineup for tonight. Cody Zeller is also now healthy. I look for the Hornets to roll in their first game since the break. Play on CHARLOTTE AAA |
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02-21-19 | Heat +6.5 v. 76ers | Top | 102-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MIAMI I'll be playing both the side and total in this Miami-Philly game. For the side, I'm taking the Heat plus the points. They'll be getting both Goran Dragic and Derrick Jones Jr back in the rotation tonight. This is great news, particularly with Dragic, who is their starting point guard. To me, this is too many points for Philly to be laying in the first game after a long layoff. It's a situation that's conducive to suffering an upset. I know the 76ers look strong on paper, but Joel Embiid isn't playing tonight. He's going to miss the next week due to a knee injury. I know it's been awhile since they last played, but the Sixers are just 5-12 ATS off a double digit win. Before the All Star Break, they beat the Knicks by 15. Miami won at Dallas right before the Break and Dallas is a good home team. They can win here as well. Take the points. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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02-14-19 | Knicks v. Hawks -7.5 | Top | 106-91 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ATLANTA The Knicks are setting a new benchmark for futility. They lost again last night, 126-111 to Philadelphia. That makes it 18 in a row. Since November 25th, they have lost 33 of 36 games. Two of their three wins were games that went to overtime (both two point wins) and the other was against the Lakers without LeBron. Playing in the second night of a back to back, right before going on break, I don't see the Knicks turning things around here. Yes, they've beaten Atlanta twice this year. But that'll have the Hawks extra motivated tonight. The Hawks picked up a nice win Tuesday against the Lakers (who had LeBron). This should not be a hard game for them. It's a rare spot where they're favored tonight, but it's certainly an ideal opponent. The Knicks will put up no resistance as they are 1-9 SU on no rest this year, losing by an average of 11 PPG. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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02-13-19 | Bucks v. Pacers +4 | Top | 106-97 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on INDIANA Indiana continues to surprise despite being without Victor Oladipo. Monday saw them win for a sixth straight time, 99-99 over Charlotte. They got off to a fast start in that one and were able to hold on after jumping out to 16-point halftime lead. They're 5-1 ATS during the six-game win streak and getting points tonight against Milwaukee. The Bucks, who continue to lead the Eastern Conference, have been equally as hot - if not hotter. They've won and covered seven of their last eight, including an easy one in Chicago Monday night. But this has all the makings of an "upset" with the Pacers already being 4-1 SU/ATS in the home dog role this season. It's pretty clear to me that this team isn't being given the proper credit right now due to the Oladipo injury. But the rest of the team has more than picked up the slack. This is a strong defensive group and the last time they hosted Milwaukee, the result was a 113-97 win with only 12 points from Oladipo. Indiana is 22-7 SU at home and a great value here getting points. Play on INDIANA AAA |
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02-12-19 | Celtics v. 76ers -6 | Top | 112-109 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on Philadelphia Kyrie Irving won't play tonight for Boston and that means big trouble for the Celtics going up against a 76ers team that has really begun to hit its stride. I took Philly Sunday, laying a similar number to the Lakers. They won 143-120, easily covering the number. I expect the same here. With Tobias Harris on board, the Sixers have as strong a starting five as any team in the league outside of Golden State. They are also 23-6 straight up here at home where they are winning by an average of almost 10 PPG. Boston has lost two straight, both as favorites. After losing at the buzzer to the Lakers last Thursday, they blew a huge lead against the Clippers Saturday and lost by double digits as double digit favorites. The Celtics are only a .500 team on the road (13-13 SU) and they are 3-6 (both SU and ATS) as an underdog this season. Philadelphia is 71-43 ATS its L114 home games and is in top form right now. Don't expect them to take the Celtics lightly as they're 0-2 against them this season, including an OT loss on Christmas Day. This is their revenge. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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02-11-19 | Blazers +6.5 v. Thunder | Top | 111-120 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on PORTLAND The last time Portland came to Oklahoma City, the number was only +4. While the Thunder did win that day, 123-114, one can only presume the real reason for the spike in the line is that the Blazers had to play Sunday and the Thunder did not. It was the closest of losses for Portland yesterday as they went down 102-101 after getting outscored 24-9 in the fourth quarter by Dallas. That should have them pretty eager to suit up this evening. OKC has won 10 of 11, but this looks to be too high of a spread in game between two of the top four teams in the Western Conference. Even with yesterday's loss, Portland has still won 7 of 10. All things considered, these teams are pretty even. OKC was a slight dog when it won at Houston Saturday. That's a Rockets team just below the Blazers in the Western Conference standings. Portland is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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02-11-19 | Wizards v. Pistons -3.5 | Top | 112-121 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 8* play on DETROIT It won't take many wins (38?) to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference this year. But regardless of how many it does take, there's no denying that both the Pistons and Wizards are coming off "good weeks" as far as keeping their postseason hopes relevant goes. Washington is coming off two straight wins while Detroit has won three in row. Now the Wizards happened to beat Chicago and Cleveland, two of the very worst teams in the league. The Pistons are coming off a home and home sweep of the Knicks, who have the worst record in the league. So there's really no need to alter our reads on the respective teams. Washington is still a really bad road team with an ATS record of 8-20 away from home (8-21 SU). So there's not much argument to be made for liking them getting such a short number. The Pistons are more rested coming into tonight and recent home wins over Dallas and Denver indicate that this should not be a hard number to cover. Washington is 5-21 ATS the L26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Detroit has a 16-13 SU record at home. Play on DETROIT AAA |