Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-13-18 | Georgia Tech v. Tennessee OVER 139.5 | 53-66 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 29 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on GT@TENN to go Over the total. Both the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and the Tennessee Volunteers come into tonight's game averaging over 80 points per game on better than 50 percent shooting. The Vols will be the favorite, and they won 77-70 at Georgia Tech last season. The total for tonight's game is set below 140, and that's a little too low in my opinion. Three of the last four meetings between these teams have come up short of the total, however the number for all three of those games was set above 140. Georgia Tech has gone over in four of it's last five road games, and the over is 4-1 in their last five non conference games. I don't expect either of these two teams to be dialed in on defense so early in the season. Take Over. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-13-18 | Wisconsin v. Xavier OVER 143.5 | Top | 77-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WIS@XAV to go Over the total. The Musketeers won at Wisconsin by a score of 80-70 last November, and I think we'll see another high scoring game here in Cincinnati. This time the Badgers are a road favorite, coming off an 85-63 win over Coppin State. The Musketeers are 2-0 with a couple of close wins over unranked teams. They have not looked strong defensively, ranking 243rd in the country allowing 77 points per game. They are coming off a 91-85 win over the Evansville Aces, and the over is 7-2-1 in their last 10 home games. The Badgers have gone over in four of their last five non-conference games. Tonight's total is lower than it has been in any of Xavier's last 10 games, and this early in the season I don't expect either of these two teams to be dialed in defensively. Take Over. GL,
Jesse Schule |
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11-12-18 | Illinois-Chicago v. Duquesne -5.5 | 88-89 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Duquesne Dukes.
The Dukes were 16-16 overall last season, and finished near the bottom of the Atlantic 10. They are off to a good start here in 2018, crushing William and Mary in their season opener by a score of 84-70. They will look to keep the ball rolling here in the Gotham Classic, hosting Illinois-Chicago. The Dukes shot 52.5 percent from the field and 46.2 percent from beyond the arc against the Tribe, while the Flames have shot just 43 percent from the field in back to back losses so far. The Dukes are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games, and they were 13-6 at home last season. They have done well in recent games against teams from the Horizon league, covering the spread in six of their last seven such contests. I'll take the home favorite here. Take DUQ. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-10-18 | Texas Southern v. Gonzaga OVER 155.5 | 67-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on TXSO@GONZ to go Over the total. The Bulldogs opened the season with a 120-79 win over Idaho State, and they host Texas Southern in Spokane tonight. Last year they beat Texas Southern by a score of 97-69, and I expect another high scoring game here tonight. Texas Southern can score points, they beat Baylor 72-69 in their first game. I don't like their chances of holding Gonzaga under 90, and I expect them to score at least 65. Gonzaga has gone over in 9 of it's last 12 non-conference games, while Texas Southern has gone over in 7 of its last 10 against non-conference opponents. Gonzaga hit over 58 percent from the field in their first game, and they should pile on the points here versus Texas Southern. Take Over. GL,
Jesse Schule |
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11-10-18 | 76ers v. Grizzlies -120 | Top | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Memphis Grizz. The Grizz are undefeated at home so far this season, and they host the Sixers on Saturday night. Philly was expected to be one of the top teams in the East this season, but so far they haven't lived up to expectations. While they are just a half game back of Boston in the Atlantic Division, they have lost five of six road games so far. The 76ers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games, and they are 1-9 straight up in their last 10 versus Memphis. The Grizzlies are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games, and 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall. I don't like the Sixers chances on the road in the second game of a back to back versus the #1 scoring defense in the NBA. Take MEM. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-07-18 | Ohio State v. Cincinnati -200 | 64-56 | Loss | -200 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
This is a 7* play on the Cincinnati Bearcats. The Ohio State Buckeyes are coming off a pretty solid season, finishing third in the BIG10 with a record of 25-9 overall. They might struggle to get back to that level this year, losing leading scorer Keita Bates-Diop, and starting forward Jae-sean Tate. The news that center Micah Potter transferred just days before their season opener in Cincinnati doesn't bode well for the Buckeyes. Cincinnati finished first in the AAC last season ahead of Houston and Wichita State. They went into the NCAA Tournament ranked #6 overall, but were knocked out in the second round versus Nevada. This Cinci team was 15-1 at home last season, and the Buckeyes come in having failed to cover in four straight road games and six straight non-conference games. I'll back the home favorite. Take CINCI. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-06-18 | Florida v. Florida State -185 | 60-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a 7* play on the Florida State Seminoles. |
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11-06-18 | Elon -120 v. Manhattan | 62-56 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Elon Phoenix. Both Elon and Manhattan finished with 14 wins last season, but while the Jaspers picked up the majority of their wins against the minnows of the Metro Atlantic, the Phoenix won most of their games in non-conference play. Elon returns four senior starters, and that includes leading scorer Tyler Seibring who averaged 15.4 points per game last year. Manhattan doesn't have the luxury of bringing back all their stars from last season, losing three starters that accounted for more than 36 points per game last season. The Jaspers have home court advantage, but I think the more experienced team from the CAA will have the edge here in this season opening game in Riverdale NY. Take ELON. GL,
Jesse Schule |
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11-05-18 | Pelicans v. Thunder -182 | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 21 h 57 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder lost four straight to start the season, but they come into tonight's home game versus New Orleans looking for a fifth straight win. Russel Westbrook missed the first two games of the season while recovering from an injury, but he's firing on all cylinders now. He dropped 32 points on 13-of-25 shooting in a 128-110 win over the Clippers in his last home game. The Pelicans have lost five straight, and they are at the end of a brutal road trip that has seen them play five games in seven days. History favors the home team here, as the Thunder are 5-2 ATS in their last seven versus New Orleans. This looks like a tough spot for a tired New Orleans team. Take OKC. GL, Jesse Schule
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11-03-18 | Celtics -147 v. Pacers | Top | 101-102 | Loss | -147 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Boston Celtics. Boston really is the BEAST of the EAST, and I expect them to prove it here in Indiana tonight. The Pacers are returning home after a taxing win at Chicago last night. Victor Oladipo appeared to be drained after the game: "I'm not feeling well, but I don't care, it's time to win," Oladipo told Fox Sports Indiana. "The game ball should go to the bench because we did a terrible job coming out strong. The bench lifted us and we finally got our groove late." The Celtics have won five of the last seven meetings in this series, and four straight at Indianapolis. Boston ranks 1st in the NBA in opponent's scoring average, and they are the only team allowing less than 100 points per game this season. This looks like a tough spot to play a back to back for the home team, and my money is on the visitors. Take BOS. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-01-18 | Pelicans v. Blazers -178 | 119-132 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Portland Trailblazers. The Pelicans are coming off a 131-121 loss at Golden State last night, and Anthony Davis logged 41 minutes in the game. They play on back to back nights, in their third game in four nights on the road at Portland tonight, and this looks like a lay down spot for the visitors. Portland has a little extra motivation for this game, as they still remember being knocked out of the playoffs in the first round by these Pelicans last year. "We have this game circled," Portland point guard Damian Lillard told reporters. "We'll have (last season's playoff series) in our minds when we play against them. But it's only going to be the eighth game of the season, and we can't get last year back." The Blazers are coming off back to back wins, and they look good to blow out the Pelicans here in this REVENGE game. Take POR. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-01-18 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 221.5 | 113-117 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on MIL@BOS to go Under the total.
When an old cat like D-Rose is dropping 50 in a single game, you know that defense is dead in the NBA. Scoring is up, and there's no denying that. The Celtics and the Bucks are two teams that still play a little defense though, ranking 1st and 4th respectively in opponent's scoring average. The Celtics haven't seen any of their games reach 220 points yet this season, and I wouldn't bet on that changing in such a big game here at the Garden tonight. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-30-18 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 227.5 | Top | 112-129 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PHI@TOR to go Under the total. The Raptors suffered their first loss of the season on the road at Milwaukee last night. Their superstar Kahwi Leonard sat out that game so he could play tonight at home in the second game of a back to back. Leonard is widely considered to be the league's best defender, and with him in the lineup the Raptors have been tough. Leonard has played in five games this season, and only one of those saw more than 227 combined points. Tonight's total is far higher than in any of the previous ten games between Toronto and Philly, and the under looks like a great bet here with this inflated line. While the trends will tell you that these teams have gone over, it's important to know that those trends just don't hold true when you factor in the inflated total. Philly is not one of the better shooting teams in the league, and the Raptors should hold them to under their season average of 112 points per game. Take Under. GL,
Jesse Schule |
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10-29-18 | Blazers v. Pacers -160 | 103-93 | Loss | -160 | 17 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers return home from a three game road trip in which they took two of three, winning in San Antonio and Cleveland. They are 2-0 at home, and they were a solid 24-17 at home last year. They host the Blazers tonight, and Portland comes in off a 120-111 loss at Miami. The Blazers are 1-1 on the road and they were 21-20 on the road last season. The Pacers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last six versus Western Conference teams. The Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games, and they have failed to cover in four straight road games against a team with a winning home record. I'll take the home favorite here. Take IND. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-24-18 | Lakers -140 v. Suns | 131-113 | Win | 100 | 20 h 59 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the LA Lakers. LeBron's Lakers debut hasn't gone as well as some might hope, and the Lakers come into Phoenix looking to snap a three game losing skid. They will have to do it without Rajon Rondo and Brandon Ingram, but I still like LeBron and company to edge out a young Suns team. The Suns are coming off back to back double digit losses to Golden State and Denver, and I think they are going to be a bit star stuck here against the Lakers. Trevor Ariza really struggled in Golden State, shooting just 2-of-12 from the field. The Suns are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games, and they have failed to cover in four of their last five versus LA. Take LAL. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-24-18 | Pacers v. Spurs -135 | 116-96 | Loss | -135 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Houston Rockets. Houston is coming off a 115-112 loss to the Clippers in LA, and that game got ugly. An incident involving Rajon Rondo, Chris Paul and Brandon Ingram resulted in all three players being suspended, and there is no doubt the Rockets will miss Chris Paul tonight. That being said, they pushed the Warriors to the brink in a 7-game series in the Western Conference Finals last year, despite CP3 playing hurt and missing two games. James Harden looked sharp in the game at LA, scoring 31 points on 11-of-26 shooting. The Jazz come into Houston tonight struggling offensively. They shot just 35.4 percent from the field and 25 percent from beyond the arc in their last game, a home loss to Memphis. I'll take Clutch City as a small home favorite here. Take HOU. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-24-18 | Jazz v. Rockets -115 | 100-89 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Houston Rockets. Houston is coming off a 115-112 loss to the Clippers in LA, and that game got ugly. An incident involving Rajon Rondo, Chris Paul and Brandon Ingram resulted in all three players being suspended, and there is no doubt the Rockets will miss Chris Paul tonight. That being said, they pushed the Warriors to the brink in a 7-game series in the Western Conference Finals last year, despite CP3 playing hurt and missing two games. James Harden looked sharp in the game at LA, scoring 31 points on 11-of-26 shooting. The Jazz come into Houston tonight struggling offensively. They shot just 35.4 percent from the field and 25 percent from beyond the arc in their last game, a home loss to Memphis. I'll take Clutch City as a small home favorite here. Take HOU. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-23-18 | Clippers v. Pelicans -6.5 | 109-116 | Win | 102 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Pelicans. The LA Clippers are off to a good start, winning two of their first three. All three of those were home games, and they will play their first road game of the season at New Orleans tonight. The Pelicans finished last season strong, upsetting Portland in the first round of the playoffs, and giving the Warriors a handful in a 4-1 series loss. They have scored 70+ first half points in both of their two games so far, and they won those two games by a combined 30 point margin. New Orleans is 4-1 straight up in their last five versus LA, and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. The Clippers are Clippers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win. This Clippers team doesn't appear to have the talent to hang with a team like the Pelicans on the road. Take NO. GL,
Jesse Schule |
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10-19-18 | Celtics v. Raptors -145 | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 18 h 4 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Toronto Raptors. Who had the best home record in the NBA last year? It wasn't the Golden State Warriors, or the Houston Rockets, and definitely not the Cleveland Cavaliers. The San Antonio Spurs had a better home record than all of those teams, but still not quite as good as the Toronto Raptors. The Celtics might be the best team in the Eastern Conference when the dust settles, but I wasn't overly impressed with their home win over Philly in their season opener. Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward combined to go 6-for-26 from the field, and they were fortunate that Philly couldn't make a shot to save their lives. The Raptors didn't appear to miss a beat after swapping DeMar DeRozan for Kawhi Leonard. The two time Defensive Player of the Year scored 24 points and pulled in a dozen rebounds. The home team has won nine of the last 10 head to head meetings, and Boston has lost five in a row in Toronto. I'll take the Raptors as a small home favorite. Take TOR. GL,
Jesse Schule |
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10-17-18 | Wolves v. Spurs -145 | 108-112 | Win | 100 | 30 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the San Antonio Spurs. |
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06-08-18 | Warriors -4.5 v. Cavs | 108-85 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Warriors. It's hard to see the Cavs having any fight left in this series. I don't think they want any part of going back to Oakland for a Game 5. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson couldn't hit a shot to save their lives in Game 3, and it just didn't matter. You can't count on Curry missing 10 of 11 three-point shot here in Game 4. The Warriors appear to be motivated to end this series in a sweep, and I think they put the Cavs to bed tonight. Take GSW. GL, Jesse Schule |
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05-31-18 | Cavs v. Warriors -11.5 | 114-124 | Loss | -113 | 58 h 56 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Golden State Warriors. The Cavs weren't supposed to be here, but LeBron James has added to his legacy by willing his team to another Finals. Now they face the mighty Golden State Warriors, and this looks like a huge let down spot for LeBron and the Cavs. Keep in mind that the Warriors won last year's Finals in five games. They won Game 1 at home by 22 points, and won Game 2 by 19 points. This time around there is no Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love is banged up. The Warriors have won their last two series openers at home by 20+ points, and in the Western Conference Final in Houston they won Game 1 by 13 points. This series is going to be a massacre, and the only way the Cavs win a game and avoid a sweep, is if the Warriors "allow" it. Take GSW. GL, Jesse Schule |
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05-28-18 | Warriors -5.5 v. Rockets | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors may have dodged a bullet, as they play Game 7 in Houston tonight against a Rockets team that likely won't have veteran PG Chris Paul. Golden State played about as bad as they can play in Games 4 & 5, and still those games each went down to the wire. Paul scored 27 points in Game 4, and scored 20 in Game 5 before going down with an injury in the final minutes. Even if they plays he's likely to be ineffective on a sore hamstring. We've seen this before as things have always ended with bitter disappointment for Paul in the post-season. Klay Thompson is coming off back to back big games, giving the Rockets an awful lot to worry about on defense. The Warriors are a -250 favorite to win this game straight up, but it's interesting you can get them at -163 to win the Championship. Whoever wins this game will be an enormous favorite in the Finals, and I give the Cavs almost zero chance in a rematch of last year's Finals. Take GS. GL, Jesse Schule
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05-27-18 | Cavs v. Celtics -130 | 87-79 | Loss | -130 | 30 h 37 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Boston Celtics. The home team has won all six games in this series so far, and I expect that trend to hold true in Game 7 in Boston. LeBron James scored 46 points in Game 6, and still it was a relatively close game. With no Kevin Love, it's going to be a tough ask for the Cavs to win here on the road with this roster. There is only so much LeBron can do, and there likely isn't a lot of gas left in the tank. A lot of people out there will talk about LeBron's record in Game 7s, and when facing elimination. He's likely never been this shorthanded before, so I don't think it's worth reading too much into his previous success in these situations. I'll take the younger, deeper, more athletic home team. Take BOS. GL,
Jesse Schule |
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05-25-18 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | Top | 99-109 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Boston Celtics. I wouldn't read to much into LeBron James having an off night and looking tired in Game 5, and I expect James and the Cavs to be much better tonight. That being said, they are asked to cover a whopping seven points, which is a few too many in my opinion. After getting blown out in Game 3, I bet on Boston +7 in Game 4. They failed to cover, but it was close. Here is what I said prior to the game: "The Cavs won big (by 32 points) in Game 3 in Cleveland, but I don't think they are 32 points better than Boston. In fact, I don't think they are seven points better than Boston. Prior to Game 3 they had played 13 playoff games, and only two of those were wins by more than four points. The Celtics will surely be better tonight, and I expect a close game from start to finish. Boston is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Cleveland, and 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. The Cavs have not been a good bet following a blowout win, going 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win." I expect tonight's game to be the closest game we will see in this series. Take BOS. GL,
Jesse Schule |
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05-24-18 | Warriors +103 v. Rockets | Top | 94-98 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Golden State Warriors. A lot of talk about how the Rockets beat the Warriors in Game 4, and it's all hogwash. The Warriors beat themselves. They played like a team that was far too confident, and showed a lack of respect for their opponent. Kevin Durant and Steph Curry took some terrible shots in the fourth quarter, and it was terrible coaching by Steve Kerr. Golden State started the game on a 12-0 run, and they took a double-digit lead into the fourth quarter. They got exactly what they deserved, and the loss will likely serve as a wake up call ahead of Game 5. Home court advantage hasn't been a factor in this series so far, and with the Warriors covering the spread in 10 of their last 14 at Houston, I can't see betting this game any other way. Take the champs in a must win game. Take GSW. GL,
Jesse Schule |
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05-23-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +102 | 83-96 | Win | 102 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Boston Celtics. After suffering a 32 point loss in Game 3, the Celtics showed a lot more fight in a much closer Game 4. With the series shifting to Boston, I expect to see the Cavs suffer a let down in Game 5. The Celtics are 9-0 straight up at home in these playoffs, and they have covered the spread in five of their last six when coming off a loss. We should expect a strong start from the home team, with plenty of support from a wild crowd. The good news for Cleveland is that their role players have been great over the last two games. The bad news is that Kevin Love has really struggled. He scored just nine points on 3-of-12 shooting in Game 4, and he wasn't much better in Game 3. He appeared to be banged up in the last game, and lingering injuries might be a factor as was the case in the first round versus Indiana. My money is on the home team to bounce back here in this pivotal Game 5. Take BOS. GL,
Jesse Schule |
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05-22-18 | Rockets v. Warriors -8.5 | 95-92 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the GSW. I bet on the Warriors in Game 1, and I have several pending bets on the Warriors to win the series. Steph Curry found his shot in Game 3, and that's going to make it awfully tough for Houston to get back in this series.
Here is what I said prior to Game 1: "Despite the fact that the Warriors are almost a 2-1 favorite to win the series, they are an underdog in Game 1 at Houston. While the Rockets won the season series, regular season success doesn't always translate into post-season wins. MVP front-runner James Harden comes in ice cold, going just 4-for-22 from beyond the arc in his last three games. He scored just 18 points on 7-of-22 shooting in his last game at home versus Utah. The Rockets will need more from Harden if they hope to upset the Warriors. Steph Curry comes in hot, scoring 28 points on 10-of-16 shooting in Game 5 versus the Pelicans. He's 7-of-15 from beyond the arc in his last two games. The Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Conference Finals games, and 4-1 ATS in their last five at Houston." Take the Champs. GL,Jesse Schule |
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05-21-18 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Boston Celtics. The Cavs won big (by 32 points) in Game 3 in Cleveland, but I don't think they are 32 points better than Boston. In fact, I don't think they are seven points better than Boston. Prior to Game 3 they had played 13 playoff games, and only two of those were wins by more than four points. The Celtics will surely be better tonight, and I expect a close game from start to finish. Boston is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Cleveland, and 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. The Cavs have not been a good bet following a blowout win, going -4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. Take BOS. GL,
Jesse Schule |
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05-20-18 | Rockets v. Warriors -7.5 | 85-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the GSW. I bet on the Warriors in Game 1, and I have several pending bets on the Warriors to win the series. Heading back to Golden State, I feel confident that Curry will find his shot, and the Rockets won't have any answer for KD. Here is what I said prior to Game 1: "Despite the fact that the Warriors are almost a 2-1 favorite to win the series, they are an underdog in Game 1 at Houston. While the Rockets won the season series, regular season success doesn't always translate into post-season wins. MVP front-runner James Harden comes in ice cold, going just 4-for-22 from beyond the arc in his last three games. He scored just 18 points on 7-of-22 shooting in his last game at home versus Utah. The Rockets will need more from Harden if they hope to upset the Warriors. Steph Curry comes in hot, scoring 28 points on 10-of-16 shooting in Game 5 versus the Pelicans. He's 7-of-15 from beyond the arc in his last two games. The Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Conference Finals games, and 4-1 ATS in their last five at Houston." Take the Champs. GL, Jesse Schule |
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05-19-18 | Celtics +6.5 v. Cavs | Top | 86-116 | Loss | -108 | 84 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Boston Celtics. Surely LeBron isn't going to allow the Cavs to lose at home in Game 3? Well, that's what everyone said about Game 2 in Boston, and despite 42 points and a triple-double, the Cavs suffered another double-digit loss. Bettors must have short memories, because if you go back just a few weeks when the Cavs were struggling against the Pacers, all the so called experts were saying that Philly would sweep the Cavs in the Eastern Conference Finals. A few days later the Sixers found themselves right where Cleveland is now, heading home down 0-2 and heavily favored in Game 3. Boston won that game and ended up winning the series in five games. Cleveland has eight wins in these playoffs, and six of those have come by four points or less. Asking them to cover almost twice that margin here in Game 3 doesn't seem realistic at all. The Celtics were just a 4.5 point underdog in their last game at Cleveland, and they have covered in five straight visits to Quicken Loans Arena. Take BOS. GL,
Jesse Schule |
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05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +100 | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Houston Rockets.
I had the Warriors in Game 1, and I also have bets on Golden State to win the series. Here is what I said prior to the first game: "While the Rockets won the season series, regular season success doesn't always translate into post-season wins. MVP front-runner James Harden comes in ice cold, going just 4-for-22 from beyond the arc in his last three games. He scored just 18 points on 7-of-22 shooting in his last game at home versus Utah. The Rockets will need more from Harden if they hope to upset the Warriors." Now that Golden State has stolen home court advantage, they could suffer a let down in Game 2. They could have swept both the Spurs and the Pelicans, but they had an off game in each of those series. This is Houston's best shot at winning a game and avoiding a sweep. Take HOU. GL, Jesse Schule |
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05-14-18 | Warriors +110 v. Rockets | Top | 119-106 | Win | 110 | 84 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Golden State Warriors. Despite the fact that the Warriors are almost a 2-1 favorite to win the series, they are an underdog in Game 1 at Houston. While the Rockets won the season series, regular season success doesn't always translate into post-season wins. MVP front-runner James Harden comes in ice cold, going just 4-for-22 from beyond the arc in his last three games. He scored just 18 points on 7-of-22 shooting in his last game at home versus Utah. The Rockets will need more from Harden if they hope to upset the Warriors. Steph Curry comes in hot, scoring 28 points on 10-of-16 shooting in Game 5 versus the Pelicans. He's 7-of-15 from beyond the arc in his last two games. The Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Conference Finals games, and 4-1 ATS in their last five at Houston. Take the Champs. GL,
Jesse Schule |
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05-13-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +2 | 83-108 | Win | 100 | 54 h 29 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Boston Celtics. Things change fast in the NBA, and after sweeping the Raptors the Cavs are a favorite on the road in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals in Boston. During their first round series versus the Pacers, the Cavs stock was at an all time low. Most experts were picking Philly to win the East. Cleveland was a seven point underdog in Game 1 at Toronto, and they trailed at the half in both of their games north of the border. Now after taking out the favorite Philly in just five games, the Celtics are home dogs. Granted that LeBron's performance has been perhaps the best anyone has ever played in the playoffs, can we simply assume he can keep it up. People seem to be taking that for granted. The Cavs haven't played since Monday, and at the age of 33 and leading the league in minutes, I wouldn't be surprised if LeBron gets off to a slow start in Game 1. Take BOS. GL, Jesse Schule
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05-09-18 | 76ers v. Celtics -113 | 112-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
After going down 0-3 in the series, the Sixers avoided the sweep with a win at home in Game 4. The series shifts back to Boston, where the Celtics have owned Philly. That's true not only in this series, but during the regular season as well. Boston has won seven of the last 10 meetings, and four of their last five home meetings versus Philly. Still the bookmakers opened with Philly as a road favorite in Game 5. Boston plays stellar defense, is well coached, and has a lot more playoff experience than Philly. It's no surprise to me that public money is coming in on Boston, and they will likely be asked to cover a few points by game time. For those of you who do not remember, I bet on Boston to win the East at +$300 before the season started. I also had Boston winning this series, and here is what I said prior to Game 1: "Sure they would like to have Kyrie Irving in these playoffs, but lets not kid ourselves about how good they were without him. Keep in mind, last year this team gave Cleveland fits, and Kyrie was playing for the Cavs. This season they played more than their fair share of games without not only Irving, but several other key players. They won 13 of their last 19 without Kyrie, and four of those six losses came on the road. Boston is still the best defensive team in the Eastern Conference. Boston is 5-1 ATS in it's last six at The Garden, and the under is 24-9 in the Celtics last 33 Conference Quarterfinals games."
Take BOS. GL, Jesse Schule |
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05-07-18 | Raptors v. Cavs -5 | 93-128 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Raptors showed a lot of heart battling back to tie Game 3 in Cleveland in the final seconds, but once again LeBron James crushed their souls. That's the type of loss you just don't expect a team to come back from, especially on the road, facing elimination. We saw this same scenario last year, and the Raptors lost Game 4 at home. They trailed by a dozen at halftime in that game. DeMar DeRozan was benched for the entire fourth quarter of Game 3, after scoring just eight points on 3-of-12 shooting. Who know's where his head is at, but I am guessing that going back to "LEBRONTO" for a Game 5 is not all that appealing right now. Take CLE. GL, Jesse Schule |
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05-06-18 | Rockets v. Jazz +6 | 100-87 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Utah Jazz. I had the Jazz in Game 3, and I was a little shocked by their poor effort. I expect a far better effort here at home in Game 4, and perhaps a bit of a let down for the Rockets. Here is what I said prior to Game 3:"After the Jazz evened the series with a shocking win in Game 2 in Houston, it's a little surprising to me how many people are willing to back Houston as a road favorite in Game 3. Utah crushed the Thunder at home in the first round, and they've won seven straight home games dating back to the regular season. Their regular season home finale was a 40 point win over the defending champions Golden State. I am guessing the people who are betting on the Rockets have forgotten that James Harden failed to hit a shot in the first half of his final playoff game last season (Game 6 versus the Spurs). He finished that game 2-of-11 from the field with six turnovers and six fouls. The Rockets lost by 39 points as a favorite. Keep in mind Utah leads the league in opponent's scoring, so don't be surprised if Harden has a tough time scoring here in Salt Lake City. The Rockets have failed to cover in five of their last six road games, I'll take the points."Take UTAH.
GL, Jesse Schule |
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05-06-18 | Warriors v. Pelicans +5.5 | 118-92 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 4 m | Show | |
The Pelicans and the Warriors were both ranked near the top of the NBA in scoring during the regular season, and not surprisingly, they have a history of playing high scoring games. They have gone over in eight of the last 10 head to head meetings, but all 10 of those games were in the regular season. The Pelicans are not the same team here in the playoffs that they were when they ranked 29th in the NBA allowing over 110 points per game. The jumped all over the Warriors in the first half of Game 3, leading 62-56 at halftime. I expect some push back from the Warriors here in Game 4, but I still think the Pelicans can keep this game close. The line value here is key, as bettors are looking to back Golden State coming off a loss. Keep in mind the Warriors are a bigger favorite tonight than they were in Game 3, and they have failed to cover in four of their last five at New Orleans. Take NO. GL, Jesse Schule |
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05-05-18 | Raptors +5 v. Cavs | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Toronto Raptors.
The Eastern Conference Semifinals have been a complete disaster for the Toronto Raptors. Once again regular season success has failed to translate in the post-season. The Raptors appear to have hit rock bottom, and everyone is down on the team right now. The local media is publishing headlines, suggesting the city be renamed "LeBRONTO". If Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan have any pride at all, they'll come out swinging here in Game 3. While the Raptors lost both Games 1 & 2 at home, they did take a lead to the locker room at halftime in both those games. I believe that those games were every bit as much a product of Toronto beating themselves, as it was Cleveland beating Toronto. I'll take the points here as I don't think this Raptors team is quite ready to give up. Take TOR. GL, Jesse Schule |
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05-05-18 | Celtics v. 76ers -8.5 | 101-98 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Philadelphia 76ers.
I bet on the Sixers in Game 2 in Boston, and they came close, but blew it in the final minutes. They return home for Game 3, and I expect them to blow the doors off in a must win game. Here is what I said prior to game 2: "The Sixers came out flat in Game 1, but I expect them to respond with a far better effort in Game 2. The Celtics are still banged up, and Jaylen Brown is not expected to be back for Game 2. Boston shot the ball incredibly well in Game 1, and that's something I don't think the Celtics can count on happening again. They made 18-of-19 free throws, shot almost 50 percent from three-point range and over 48 percent from the field. We can expect a far better effort on defense from Philly, and the law of averages would suggest that those numbers in Game 1 were an anomaly. The same can be said about the Sixers going just 5-for-26 from beyond the arc in the series opener. Philly is 6-1-1 ATS in it's last eight when coming off a loss." Take PHILLY. GL, Jesse Schule |
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05-04-18 | Rockets v. Jazz +5 | 113-92 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the Utah Jazz.
After the Jazz evened the series with a shocking win in Game 2 in Houston, it's a little surprising to me how many people are willing to back Houston as a road favorite in Game 3. Utah crushed the Thunder at home in the first round, and they've won seven straight home games dating back to the regular season. Their regular season home finale was a 40 point win over the defending champions Golden State. I am guessing the people who are betting on the Rockets have forgotten that James Harden failed to hit a shot in the first half of his final playoff game last season (Game 6 versus the Spurs). He finished that game 2-of-11 from the field with six turnovers and six fouls. The Rockets lost by 39 points as a favorite. Keep in mind Utah leads the league in opponent's scoring, so don't be surprised if Harden has a tough time scoring here in Salt Lake City. The Rockets have failed to cover in five of their last six road games, I'll take the points. Take UTAH. GL, Jesse Schule |
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05-04-18 | Warriors -190 v. Pelicans | 100-119 | Loss | -190 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Golden State Warriors. |
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05-03-18 | 76ers -165 v. Celtics | 103-108 | Loss | -165 | 30 h 36 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Philadelphia 76ers.
The Sixers came out flat in Game 1, but I expect them to respond with a far better effort in Game 2. The Celtics are still banged up, and Jaylen Brown is not expected to be back for Game 2. Boston shot the ball incredibly well in Game 1, and that's something I don't think the Celtics can count on happening again. They made 18-of-19 free throws, shot almost 50 percent from three-point range and over 48 percent from the field. We can expect a far better effort on defense from Philly, and the law of averages would suggest that those numbers in Game 1 were an anomaly. The same can be said about the Sixers going just 5-for-26 from beyond the arc in the series opener. Philly is 6-1-1 ATS in it's last eight when coming off a loss. Take PHILLY. GL, Jesse Schule |
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05-03-18 | Cavs v. Raptors UNDER 213 | 128-110 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on CLE@TOR Under. |
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05-01-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 227 | Top | 116-121 | Loss | -107 | 40 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NO@GS to go Under the total Jesse Schule |
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04-30-18 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 208 | Top | 101-117 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PHI@BOS to go Under the total.
The pundits are calling for Philly to go all the way to the NBA Finals, but first they have to get past a Celtics team that finished three games ahead of them in the standings. I bet on Boston to win their series versus Milwaukee, and here is what I said prior to Game 1: "The Celtics are just a slight favorite at home, despite being a #2 seed versus a #7 seed. Sure they would like to have Kyrie Irving in these playoffs, but lets not kid ourselves about how good they were without him. Keep in mind, last year this team gave Cleveland fits, and Kyrie was playing for the Cavs. This season they played more than their fair share of games without not only Irving, but several other key players. They won 13 of their last 19 without Kyrie, and four of those six losses came on the road. Boston is still the best defensive team in the Eastern Conference, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five versus Milwaukee. Boston is 5-1 ATS in it's last six at The Garden, and the under is 24-9 in the Celtics last 33 Conference Quarterfinals games." They won all four home games in the first round, and held the Bucks under 100 points in each of the last three games in that series. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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04-29-18 | Pacers v. Cavs -5.5 | 101-105 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 44 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Cleveland Cavaliers 1st Half ML.
The Cavs led by 10 at the half in Game 4, and they led by 15 at the half in Game 3. The Pacers had a chance to take a stranglehold 3-1 series lead, but blew it late in Game 4 at home. The series would have been over if it wasn't for a missed goaltending call in Game 5, but instead we have a deciding Game 7 in Cleveland for all the marbles. Historically teams that fail to capitilize on such opportunities tend to run out of chances. LeBron has never played in a Game 7 in the first round, but his last Game 7 was in the NBA Finals versus Golden State. James has also never lost in the first round of the playoffs, and I expect that trend to continue with the Cavs moving on to round 2. Take CLE. GL, Jesse Schule |
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04-28-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 224.5 | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
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04-28-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors -7.5 | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Warriors. |
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04-28-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -195 | 96-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Boston Celtics.
I bet on Boston in both the first two games of this series, and here is what I said prior to Game 1: "The Celtics are just a slight favorite at home, despite being a #2 seed versus a #7 seed. Sure they would like to have Kyrie Irving in these playoffs, but lets not kid ourselves about how good they were without him. Keep in mind, last year this team gave Cleveland fits, and Kyrie was playing for the Cavs. This season they played more than their fair share of games without not only Irving, but several other key players. They won 13 of their last 19 without Kyrie, and four of those six losses came on the road. Boston is still the best defensive team in the Eastern Conference, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five versus Milwaukee. Boston is 5-1 ATS in it's last six at The Garden, and the under is 24-9 in the Celtics last 33 Conference Quarterfinals games." Boston is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings between the two teams, including a two point loss in Game 4 in Milwaukee. I'll take the home team. Take BOS. GL, Jesse Schule |
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04-27-18 | Raptors +2.5 v. Wizards | 102-92 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Toronto Raptors.
The home team has won all five games in this series so far, but I think the Wizards are going to struggle to keep that trend alive. The Raptors jumped all over Washington in Game 4, leading by double digits at halftime. Toronto couldn't hang on in the second half, and Washington was able to slip away with a 106-98 win. The Wizards are likely going to be without Otto Porter tonight, and that might spell trouble for the home team. Porter is the team's leading scorer behind Bradley Beal and John Wall. Toronto is certainly capable of winning a game on the road, the Raptors had two more wins on the road than Washington had at home during the regular season. The Raptors also won two of three road games in their first round series versus Milwaukee last year, winning in Game 6. Take TOR. GL, Jesse Schule |
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04-26-18 | Celtics +4.5 v. Bucks | 86-97 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Boston Celtics .
I bet on Boston in both the first two games of this series, and here is what I said prior to Game 1: "The Celtics are just a slight favorite at home, despite being a #2 seed versus a #7 seed. Sure they would like to have Kyrie Irving in these playoffs, but lets not kid ourselves about how good they were without him. Keep in mind, last year this team gave Cleveland fits, and Kyrie was playing for the Cavs. This season they played more than their fair share of games without not only Irving, but several other key players. They won 13 of their last 19 without Kyrie, and four of those six losses came on the road. Boston is still the best defensive team in the Eastern Conference, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five versus Milwaukee. Boston is 5-1 ATS in it's last six at The Garden, and the under is 24-9 in the Celtics last 33 Conference Quarterfinals games." Boston is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between the two teams, including a two point loss in Game 4 in Milwaukee. I'll take the points. Take BOS. GL, Jesse Schule |
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04-25-18 | Jazz v. Thunder -160 | 99-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
Here is what I said before this series started: "The Utah Jazz were one of the hottest teams in the league in the second half of the season, but they ran into a brick wall in Portland in their final game. They play Game 2 on the road at Oklahoma City, and they appear to be catching the Thunder at a bad time. Oklahoma City won four of their final five games, including a win on the road at Houston. Russell Westbrook is playing out of his ******** mind. Paul George averaged almost 28 points per game in his last five, and the Thunder are starting to look like the team everyone expected them to be when they signed George in the off-season. Utah has lost seven of their last eight versus the Thunder, and they are 0-7 in their last seven trips to OKC. " The Thunder return home for Game 5 down 3-1 in the series, and the are on the ropes. I expect the to extend the series at least forcing a Game 6 back at Utah. Jesse Schule |
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04-24-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -145 | 87-92 | Win | 100 | 20 h 44 m | Show | |
8* |
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04-23-18 | Thunder v. Jazz UNDER 209 | Top | 96-113 | Push | 0 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OKC@UTAH to go Under the total. |
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04-22-18 | Cavs v. Pacers UNDER 205.5 | Top | 104-100 | Win | 100 | 16 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CLE@IND to go Under the total.
The Pacers have a chance to take a stranglehold on this series, heading into Game 4 at home already up 2-1. The Cavs lone win came by a score of 100-97 at home in Game 2, and LeBron scored 46 points in that game. All three games in this series have been low scoring, and I expect another defensive battle in such a high stakes contest tonight. The Pacers were one of the best defensive teams in the NBA after the all start break, and these two teams have failed to reach the total in four straight at Indianapolis. The Cavs are just 5-16-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings between the two teams, yet they are a road favorite here tonight. Kevin Love is banged up, and George Hill could miss tonight's game with a back injury. The under is 15-5 in Pacers last 20 games playing on 1 days rest, and they have failed to reach the total in nine of their last 11 home games. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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04-21-18 | Thunder v. Jazz UNDER 207 | Top | 102-115 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
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04-21-18 | 76ers -153 v. Heat | 106-102 | Win | 100 | 25 h 37 m | Show | |
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04-20-18 | Celtics +5.5 v. Bucks | 92-116 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Boston Celtics.
I bet on Boston in both the first two games of this series, and here is what I said prior to Game 1: "The Celtics are just a slight favorite at home, despite being a #2 seed versus a #7 seed. Sure they would like to have Kyrie Irving in these playoffs, but lets not kid ourselves about how good they were without him. Keep in mind, last year this team gave Cleveland fits, and Kyrie was playing for the Cavs. This season they played more than their fair share of games without not only Irving, but several other key players. They won 13 of their last 19 without Kyrie, and four of those six losses came on the road. Boston is still the best defensive team in the Eastern Conference, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five versus Milwaukee. Boston is 5-1 ATS in it's last six at The Garden, and the under is 24-9 in the Celtics last 33 Conference Quarterfinals games." Public money is heavy on Milwaukee in Game 3, despite the fact that Boston has covered in five straight versus the Bucks, including their last two in Milwaukee. I'll take the points as I feel this is an inflated line. Take BOS. GL, Jesse Schule |
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04-19-18 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 207 | 110-97 | Push | 0 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
The Warriors head to San Antonio in complete command of this series, and they will be a favorite to win Game 3. The Spurs aren't good enough to compete with the Warriors in this series, but they are sure as hell good enough to steal a game at home. Their Game 2 loss at Golden State was their 10th straight loss on the road, but they have won 11 in a row at home. In fact the Spurs won 33 games on their home court during the regular season, one of those wins coming versus Golden State. The Spurs won that game by a score of 89-75, and they lead 49-41 at halftime. They have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 home games, and they lead the NBA in opponent's scoring average. I expect the home team to come out playing with plenty of emotion here in Game 3, especially in the first half. The Spurs led by a score of 53-47 at the half in Game 2, but went on to lose by 15 points. These two teams have failed to reach the total in eight of the last 11 meetings in San Antonio. |
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04-19-18 | Blazers v. Pelicans -165 | 102-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
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04-19-18 | 76ers v. Heat +2 | 128-108 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Miami Heat.
I bet on Miami in Game 1, and they were leading at halftime before completely falling apart in the second half. Here is what I said prior to that game: "The Sixers come into the playoffs riding a 16 game winning streak, and it seems that everyone is now ready to #TrustTheProcess. Of course bettors are lining up to back Philly in Game 1 of their first round series versus the Heat, and because of that they are asked to cover a spread a few points higher than it was the last time they played Miami at home. The Sixers split the season series versus the Heat, but only covered the spread in one of the four games. Both the Sixers wins came in games decided by fewer than six points. "They played us hard; they were really physical with us, especially down in Miami," Sixers guard J.J. Redick said. "They run multiple actions on offense so you really have to defend for the whole shot clock. They have a deep roster with a bunch of guys who play hard and play together. It's a big challenge for us." Simply put, I am not ready to buy into the hype here with a young team that has little to no playoff experience. Regular season wins don't count for #### all in the post-season. The Heat are 18-8-2 ATS in their last 28 road games, and 14-6 ATS in their last 20 Conference Quarterfinals games." Of course it all came to fruition in Game 2, and I expect Game 3 in Miami to be a similar story. Take MIA. GL, Jesse Schule |
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04-18-18 | Jazz v. Thunder -178 | 102-95 | Loss | -178 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
Jesse Schule |
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04-17-18 | Pelicans v. Blazers UNDER 214 | 111-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on NO@POR to go Under the total.
The Blazers held New Orleans to just 97 points in Game 1, but they were on the wrong side of a close defensive game. I expect Portland to come back an even the series with a win in Game 2, but my money is on the total. Portland ranked 5th in the NBA in opponent's scoring average, and they are going to be playing with desperation here in tonight's game. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, going under in five of the last seven meetings. The under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings in Portland, and 11-5-1 in the last 17 overall. The Blazers have also gone under in five of their last six when coming off a loss. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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04-17-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -125 | 106-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Boston Celtics.
The Celtics are just a slight favorite at home, despite being a #2 seed versus a #7 seed. Sure they would like to have Kyrie Irving in these playoffs, but lets not kid ourselves about how good they were without him. Keep in mind, last year this team gave Cleveland fits, and Kyrie was playing for the Cavs. This season they played more than their fair share of games without not only Irving, but several other key players. They won 13 of their last 19 without Kyrie, and four of those six losses came on the road. Boston is still the best defensive team in the Eastern Conference, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five versus Milwaukee. Boston is 5-1 ATS in it's last six at The Garden, and the under is 24-9 in the Celtics last 33 Conference Quarterfinals games. Take BOS. GL, Jesse Schule |
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04-15-18 | Jazz v. Thunder -140 | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 28 h 23 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the OKC Thunder. Jesse Schule |
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04-15-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -160 | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 4 h 40 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Boston Celtics.
The Celtics are just a slight favorite at home, despite being a #2 seed versus a #7 seed. Sure they would like to have Kyrie Irving in these playoffs, but lets not kid ourselves about how good they were without him. Keep in mind, last year this team gave Cleveland fits, and Kyrie was playing for the Cavs. This season they played more than their fair share of games without not only Irving, but several other key players. They won 13 of their last 19 without Kyrie, and four of those six losses came on the road. Boston is still the best defensive team in the Eastern Conference, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five versus Milwaukee. Boston is 5-1 ATS in it's last six at The Garden, and the under is 24-9 in the Celtics last 33 Conference Quarterfinals games. Take BOS. GL, Jesse Schule |
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04-15-18 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 203 | 107-113 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 39 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on MIL@BOS to go Under.
The Celtics are just a slight favorite at home, despite being a #2 seed versus a #7 seed. Sure they would like to have Kyrie Irving in these playoffs, but lets not kid ourselves about how good they were without him. Keep in mind, last year this team gave Cleveland fits, and Kyrie was playing for the Cavs. This season they played more than their fair share of games without not only Irving, but several other key players. They won 13 of their last 19 without Kyrie, and four of those six losses came on the road. Boston is still the best defensive team in the Eastern Conference, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five versus Milwaukee. Boston is 5-1 ATS in it's last six at The Garden, and the under is 24-9 in the Celtics last 33 Conference Quarterfinals games. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule |
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04-14-18 | Heat +6.5 v. 76ers | 103-130 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Miami Heat. |
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04-11-18 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Wolves | 106-112 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 2 m | Show | |
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04-11-18 | Spurs v. Pelicans UNDER 211 | Top | 98-122 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SA@NO to go Under the total. |
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04-09-18 | Kings v. Spurs UNDER 200 | 85-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on SAC@SA to go UNDER the total. |
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04-07-18 | Blazers v. Spurs -175 | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the San Antonio Spurs.
Only the Toronto Raptors and Houston Rockets have more home wins than San Antonio this season, and the Spurs come into tonight's home game against Portland as winners of nine straight in San Antonio. The Spurs have allowed an average of just 99.7 points per game, and they rank 1st overall in the NBA in opponent's scoring average. The Blazers are in a comfortable position in the Standings, and with Damien Lillard nursing an ankle injury, we should see Portland dial it back a little. History certainly favors the Spurs, as Portland has failed to cover in seven of it's last 10 in San Antonio, and the Spurs are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games. Take SA. GL, Jesse Schule |
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04-07-18 | Nuggets -130 v. Clippers | 134-115 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Denver Nuggets. The Clippers are set to suffer a let down here against the Nuggets, after losing three of their last four overall. Their home loss to Utah by a whopping 22 points was likely the final nail in the coffin, killing any hope of making a playoff run. The Nuggets are one of the hottest teams in the league right now, and only after winning six of their last eight are they even in position to think about the playoffs. You can't really blame the Clippers, who have four PGs sidelined by injury. They simply didn't have enough healthy bodies to throw out there. I like Denver to win a desperation game here in LA. Take DEN. GL, Jesse Schule |
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04-03-18 | Celtics +2 v. Bucks | 102-106 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
8* |
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04-02-18 | Michigan +7 v. Villanova | Top | 62-79 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Michigan Wolverines.
By now you have probably already heard that Michigan is the only team to make the Final without playing at least a #5 seed. Don't kid yourself, this Wolverines team didn't get here because of a soft schedule. Their 14 game winning streak includes wins over #2 ranked Michigan State (they beat the Spartans twice this year) and #8 ranked Purdue. They lost two of three versus the Boilermakers, but the two losses came by a combined margin of five points. Villanova comes in as the highest scoring team in the country, and they deserve to be the favorite. The line looks a little inflated though, asking them to cover a whopping seven points in a game of this magnitude. The Wildcats offense struggled against Texas Tech, but they were fortunate that the Red Raiders couldn't make a shot to save their lives in that game. Michigan has far better shooters, and the Wolverines rank 8th nationally allowing just 62.9 points per game. The last five National Championship Games were all decided by less than seven points, and I expect another close game here in 2018. GL, Jesse Schule |
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04-01-18 | Bucks v. Nuggets -168 | 125-128 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
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03-31-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan -5 | 57-69 | Win | 100 | 86 h 7 m | Show | |
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03-30-18 | Nuggets v. Thunder UNDER 224.5 | Top | 126-125 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DEN@OKC to go Under the total.
The NBA Playoffs are just a few weeks away, and as teams jockey for playoff position, we see a lot more intensity on defense. I bet on the under in the Thunder's 108-105 loss to Portland, and here is what I had to say before the game: "Both the Blazers and the Thunder rank among the top defensive teams in the league, ranking 5th and 7th in opponent’s scoring average. The Thunder are just one game back of Portland in the Northwest, and there is just two games separating 3rd place Portland and 6th place New Orleans in the Western Conference standings. The Blazers have won all three of their games against the Thunder this season, and two of those three games fell short of the total. The total for tonight’s game is higher than it was in any of those previous three contests." The Thunder host the Denver Nuggets tonight, and these two teams have gone under in two of three previous meetings this season. Once again, tonight's total is higher than it was in any of those previous three games. I'll place a value bet here on what appears to be an inflated total. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-27-18 | Bucks v. Clippers -150 | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the #LAC.
The Milwaukee Bucks have been terrible on the road this season, with a record of 16-19. They head out West for a road game against the Clippers, and I don't like their chances here against a Clippers team that has a 20-15 home record against superior opposition in the Western Conference. The Clippers trail the 8th place Minnesota Timberwolves by two games in the standings, but since they have played three fewer games they still have a good chance to move up. The Bucks have failed to cover in 11 of their last 15 overall, and they are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine versus teams from the Western Conference. The Clippers are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 versus Eastern Conference teams. The Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games versus teams with a winning home record. Take LAC. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-25-18 | Heat v. Pacers UNDER 207 | Top | 107-113 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MIA@IND to go Under the total. Jesse Schule |
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03-25-18 | Duke -155 v. Kansas | 81-85 | Loss | -155 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Duke Blue Devils.
Duke comes in as the #2 seed, favored to beat the #1 seed Kansas. Why are the Blue Devils favored? Well there are a handful of very good reasons. Duke has turned things around defensively, allowing just 67.6 points per game in their last five overall. The Jayhawks on the other hand allowed 76 points in their win over Clemson, and 79 points in their win over Seton Hall. Duke came into the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the country, covering the spread in nine of it's last 12 overall, and 11 of it's last 15 non conference games. The Blue Devils have a history of dominating teams from the BIG12, covering in eight of their last 11 versus BIG12 teams. Perhaps more important than any trends or stats, Duke has the best coach in the business. No disrespect to Bill Self, but I'll take Coach K over anybody. Take DUKE. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-25-18 | Texas Tech v. Villanova OVER 144.5 | Top | 59-71 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
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03-24-18 | Florida State v. Michigan -190 | 54-58 | Win | 100 | 20 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Michigan Wolverines.
Michigan came into the NCAA Tournament as the hottest team in the country, and they looked the part in a dominant Sweet 16 win over Texas A&M. Florida State on the other hand came limping into the tournament as losers of three of four games. They have had an impressive run in their own right, beating #1 seed Xavier and #4 seed Gonzaga. I don't think either of those two teams were playing at the same level as Michigan is at the moment. Certainly the Wolverines are better defensively than either the Musketeers or the Bulldogs. The Wolverines have allowed just 60.6 points per game so far in the tournament, and during the regular season they allowed just 63.3 points per game. That's 10 points per game less than the Seminoles gave up this season. Michigan has the advantage on both offense and defense, and I think John Beilein is a better coach than Leonard Hamilton. Take MICH. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-23-18 | Texas Tech +2 v. Purdue | 78-65 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show | |
8* |
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03-23-18 | West Virginia v. Villanova -5 | 78-90 | Win | 100 | 33 h 58 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Villanova. Jesse Schule |
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03-23-18 | Clippers v. Pacers UNDER 219 | Top | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LAC@IND to go UNDER the total.
I bet the under in the Pacers loss at New Orleans on Wednesday, and here is what I said prior to that game: "The Pacers and the Pelicans are two teams that jockeying for playoff position, and they have a history of playing low scoring games. Eight of the last 10 meetings have fallen short of the listed total. Both teams have stepped up their intensity on defense in recent weeks, and the result has been lower scores across the board. That being said, tonight's total is higher than it was in any of the previous 10 meetings in this series. It's also higher than it was in any of Indiana's last 10 games overall, and nine of those games went under." Tonight's game against the Clippers is quite similar, and I expect another hard battle. The under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings, and the under is 6-0 in Pacers last six home games. The under has cashed in four of the Clippers last five visits to Indiana. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-23-18 | Clemson v. Kansas -175 | Top | 76-80 | Win | 100 | 111 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Kansas Jayhawks. |
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03-22-18 | Kansas State v. Kentucky -5.5 | 61-58 | Loss | -102 | 38 h 39 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Kentucky Wildcats.
It took Kentucky the majority of the season to finally reach it's potential, but here in the Sweet 16 the Wildcats are one of the nation's hottest teams. They have become the elite contender they were projected to be. The Kansas State Wildcats are a tough, competitive team, and we shouldn't be surprised that they advanced this far. Kansas State is not among the truly elite teams in the country however, and that is evidenced by their record against the top teams in the BIG12. They lost three times to Kansas by a combined 31 points, and their two losses to West Virginia came by an even greater margin. Kansas State has covered just twice in it's last eight neutral site games, and the Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games. Kentucky is 3-0-2 ATS in it's last five NCAA Tournament games, and the Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Take UK. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Michigan -145 | 72-99 | Win | 100 | 55 h 11 m | Show | |
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03-22-18 | Loyola-Chicago +2.5 v. Nevada | Top | 69-68 | Win | 100 | 83 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers. |
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03-21-18 | Wizards v. Spurs -5 | 90-98 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
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03-21-18 | Pacers v. Pelicans UNDER 219.5 | 92-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
This is a 10* play on IND@NO to go UNDER the total. Jesse Schule |
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03-20-18 | Mississippi State v. Louisville -5 | Top | 79-56 | Loss | -106 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Louisville Cardinals. Jesse Schule |
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03-20-18 | Penn State v. Marquette -135 | 85-80 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Marquette Golden Eagles. Only eight teams remain in the NIT Tournament, and one of the Quarter Final matchups will see Marquette hosting Penn State. Home teams are 17-3 straight up in the tournament so far, and 10 of those 17 wins for the home team came by a double digit margin. Marquette crushed a very good Oregon team by a score of 101-92 at home in it's second round match. I bet on the under in last night's game between Oklahoma State and Stanford, and in the analysis I referenced some data published by SB Nation regarding the NIT rule changes. Here is what I said: "According to SB Nation, in the first nine games of the tournament, eight of nine road teams shot below their season average from three-point range. One of those games was Oklahoma State hosting Florida Gulf Coast, and the Cowboys held the Eagles to just 68 points." Marquette scored 101 points, and shot 12-of-26 from beyond the arc in a home win over Oregon in the second round. Three-point shooting was the difference in the game, as Oregon made just 4-of-13 attempts. The nine point margin of victory was a little deceiving, as Oregon out-scored the Eagles 30-17 in the final quarter to make the game appear closer than it actually was. I'll take the Eagles here at the Bradley Center tonight. |
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03-19-18 | Stanford v. Oklahoma State UNDER 153.5 | Top | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on STAN@OKST to go UNDER the total.
It's difficult to say what kind of effect the new rules in the NIT will have on scoring. So far I can't see a lot of evidence that scoring is down across the board, but it certainly does appear that visiting teams are struggling from beyond the arc. According to SB Nation, in the first nine games of the tournament, eight of nine road teams shot below their season average from three-point range. One of those games was Oklahoma State hosting Florida Gulf Coast, and the Cowboys held the Eagles to just 68 points. Both teams struggled from three-point range in that game, with Oklahoma State shooting just 6-of-22 and FGCU hitting 10-of-27. The total for tonight's game in Stillwater is far higher than it has been in previous meetings between these two teams. The Cowboys have gone under in an incredible 11 straight non conference games, while the Cardinal have failed to reach the total in seven of their last eight non-conference games. Oklahoma State has also failed to reach the total in 16 of their last 21 in Stillwater. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-18-18 | Florida State v. Xavier -5.5 | 75-70 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
If you ask people what strategy they employ when betting on the NCAA Tournament, you will probably hear the majoroty of them talking about taking the underdogs. Shocking upsets are the most common theme at this time of year, and we saw some of that Thursday. Buffalo eliminated Arizona, and Virginia Tech and Miami both were ousted as first round favorites. Chances are, the talk in the office around the water cooler will focus mostly on these games. The reality is that seven teams were favored by double digits Thursday, and all seven of them won. Five of those seven favorites covered. In Friday's games, #1 overall Virginia went down, and so did #4 seed Wichita State. Once again though, the story you won't read about is that six of the eight teams favored by double digits won, and four of those covered. So double digit favorites went 13-2 straight up, and 9-6 ATS in the first round of the tournament. In my pre tournament research, I had learned that 1-4 seeds have covered roughly 60 percent of the time in the early rounds in recent seasons. So I can't say that I am surprised by the fact that double digit favorites are hitting at a 60 percent clip so far. Such anomalies are rare in sports betting, as the bookmakers are quick to make adjustments in order to correct such trends. It seems clear that the shock factor of upsets such as UMBC over Virginia have a serious psychological effect on sports bettors. The betting public is convinced that backing underdogs in the NCAA Tournament is a winning strategy. This consensus opinion among fans likely prevents the bookmakers from making what are normally routine adjustments. Now I bet on a few dogs myself in the first round, including UNC Greensboro and Charleston, who both came very close to winning outright. That being said, I think the real value at this time of the year is on undervalued favorites, and that's exactly what I think we have here with FSU vs Xavier. Take XAV. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-18-18 | Clemson +1.5 v. Auburn | Top | 84-53 | Win | 100 | 32 h 36 m | Show |
This is Game of the Year play on the Clemson Tigers.
I bet on the Charleston Cougars in their first round matchup versus Auburn, and here is what I had to say about the Tigers prior to that game: "Auburn was eliminated from the SEC Tournament when they lost by a whopping 18 points to Alabama. They have really struggled since losing senior forward Anfernee McLemore, who went down in an 84-75 loss to South Carolina. Including that game, they've lost four of their last six. Charleston comes in as winner of nine of their last 10 overall, with the only loss during that span coming in overtime. Auburn has failed to cover in four straight, and I don't think they should be asked to cover double digits here against a Charleston team that won 26 games this season." Clemson finished with an 11-7 record in the ACC.. you know who else had an 11-7 record? How about defending national champions North Carolina. They were eliminated from the ACC Tournament by #1 overall Virginia, losing that game by just six points. They had won three of their previous four overall, and Clemson is 6-0 ATS in their last six non conference games, and they have covered in five straight versus the SEC. Take CLEM. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-18-18 | Nevada v. Cincinnati UNDER 136.5 | 75-73 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 37 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on NEV@CIN to go UNDER the total.
The Wolfpack scored just 68 points in regulation in their first round matchup versus Texas, while Cincinnati gave up just 53 points in their first round win over Georgia State. I am expecting a gritty game here when they meet in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. . I had a look at the venue, and it turns out I was riding the under here in the Horizon League Tournament. Here is what I had to say prior to the Horizona League Final: "Four teams played in the Horizon League Tournament Semi Finals at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit last night, and not one of those teams scored 60 total points. In fact two of those teams (Cleveland State and Oakland) failed to score as many as 45 points." That trend has held true here in the NCAA Tournament so far, and the Bearcats have failed to reach the total of five of their last six overall. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-18-18 | Syracuse v. Michigan State UNDER 129.5 | 55-53 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on SYR@MSU to go Under, I bet on Syracuse in their First Four matchup versus Arizona State, and I took the under in their first round matchup versus TCU. Here is what I said before they beat the Sun Devils: "Both teams won a total of 20 games, and both teams were 4-6 away from home. Both teams have lost five of their last eight overall. The biggest difference I can see here between these two teams, is the strength of schedule in the ACC compared to the PAC12. Syracuse has faced Top 25 teams eight times this season, while Arizona State has only faced four ranked teams. The Orange were eliminated in the second round of the ACC Tournament by defending national champs North Carolina, while Arizona State was beaten in the first round of the PAC12 Tournament by unranked Colorado. The last time the Orange slipped into the Big Dance as a bubble team, they went all the way to the Final Four before being eliminated by the Tar Heels." The Orange will be a massive underdog here in their second round matchup versus Michigan State, and I think the venue here is particularly significant. I had a look at the venue, and it turns out I was riding the under here in the Horizon League Tournament. Here is what I had to say prior to the Horizona League Final: "Four teams played in the Horizon League Tournament Semi Finals at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit last night, and not one of those teams scored 60 total points. In fact two of those teams (Cleveland State and Oakland) failed to score as many as 45 points." That trend has held true here in the NCAA Tournament, and Michigan State comes in as winners of five of their last six overall, but only one of those wins came by more than eight points. Jesse Schule |