This is a 5* play on EDM.

Edmonton won just four games all of last season, and one of those was a 30-20 home win over Ottawa last August. This Edmonton team appears to have improved, but the results have not. They come into Week 6 with a record of 0-4, but their last three losses all came in games decided by just three points. Now they come out of a bye week, facing an Ottawa team that is 0-2 on the road and both losses came by 2+ scores. Ottawa has wins over Winnipeg and Hamilton who have a combined record of 1-9. It's worth pointing out that Edmonton's losses have come against the top two teams in the West and the top two teams in the East that own a combined record of 15-3.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on BAL.

The Orioles are just a game up on the Yankees in the AL East, but New York has just eight wins over their last 25 games.

Luis Gil will toe the slab for the Yanks, and New York has lost his last four starts. He's 1-4 with a 7.59 ERA in his last five starts, and during that span the bullpen has been brutal as well.

The Orioles hand the ball to Grayson Rodriguez, who is 5-1 with a 2.27 ERA in seven home starts. He's also 4-1 with a 4.02 ERA in his last five starts.

The Orioles are 9-3 in their last 12 versus New York.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Colombia.

This Colombia squad is riding a 26 match unbeaten streak, and they are a heavy favorite in their quarterfinal match versus Panama. This is a mismatch, as Panama advanced by beating a Bolivia team that ranks 84th in the FIFA World Rankings. Panama faced Uruguay in their first match of this tournament, and they lost by a score of 3-1. The lone goal came in the 4th minute of added time in a game that they were trailing 3-0. We can expect Colombia to go ahead early, and the more Panama pushes for an equalizer the more likely Colombia will punish them on the counter attack.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on WPG.

The Bombers lost their season opener to defending Grey Cup champions Montreal, followed by three more losses by a combined nine points. After being on the wrong end of three straight close games, a revenge game at home against Ottawa is a great spot for a "get right" game. While they lost starting QB Zach Collaros, they turn to Chris Streveler, who won a Grey Cup in Winnipeg in 2019. He's a prolific runner at the quarterback position, but some say he's not the most accurate passer. I will point out, he's replacing a guy (Collaros) who has completed 62 percent of his passes with no TDs and four INTs so far this season. The Redblacks come in with a pair of wins over winless opponents (incl WPG), and a blowout loss to Montreal. The Bombers defense and running game should be enough to get the monkey off their back and pick up their first win of the season.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over.

The Rockies host the Brewers in Game 2 at Coors Field Tuesday, and we are expecting another slugfest.

Dallas Keuchel will toe the slab for the Brew Crew, and he is a long way removed from his Cy Young form back in 2015. He has struggled to stay in a major league rotation over the past five seasons, and this will be just his second start for the Brewers. He got torched for five runs on eight hits in just four innings in a no decision at Texas in his Milwaukee debut. His last start of last season came at Coors Field, and he allowed four runs on six hits in just 2 1/3 innings.

The Rockies hand the ball to Ryan Feltner, who is 0-2 with a 7.43 ERA in seven starts at home this season.

I am going to make this an "action" play, after the Brewers used an opener in Game 1. Regardless of starting pitching, both these teams appear to be thin with injuries to the staff.

The Rockies rank dead last in the majors in ERA by reliever (5.71).

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

I had the over in Game 6, and I was very lucky that Edmonton scored a pair of empty net goals seven seconds apart at the end of the game to push the total over. The series goes back to Florida for a 7th and deciding game, and we can expect both teams to be tighter than a nun's (see you next Tuesday). We can't ignore the history when it comes to Game 7s. All three Game 7s went under in these playoffs. Three of four went under last year, four of six went under in 2022 and two of three went under in 2021. That's 12 of the last 16 failing to go over a total of 5. Since 2005 more than 61 percent of Game 7s have gone under the total. That stat however includes nine games with a total set at 5 that were pushes. The number of games that have failed to hit 5.5 is closer to 70 percent. I fully expect this game to end with exactly five goals scored.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over.

The Oilers can force a Game 7 in Florida with a win tonight, and they have seized all the momentum in this series. I had the over in Game 5, and here is what I said prior to the game: "I expect the Oilers to be loose, as if they are playing with house money. They have finally solved Sergei Bobrovsky. chasing him from the net early in Game 4. I had mentioned that momentum might carry over after they scored three late goals in Game 3. The Panthers have to be concerned that the floodgates have opened. Bobrobsky fell apart in last year's Finals, conceding eight goals on 31 shots in Game 5 in Vegas. With this being an elimination game, there is also potential for the late empty net goals that could push us over the number." Another shootout is expected in Edmonton tonight.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on DAL.

The Mavs have looked terrible so far in the NBA Finals, but there's nothing like home cooking. Since 2003 teams down 0-2 in a playoff series returning home off back to back losses where they scored fewer than 100 points in both games, are 34-10 SU in the first half of Game 3. According to Yahoo.com, ratings for the 2024 Finals are down 8 percent since the Celtics last Finals appearance in 2022. Many bettors suspect that with an incentive to extend a series, officials often put their thumb on the scale ever so slightly. While the Celtics swept the Pacers, they trailed 69-57 in the first half of Game 3 in Indiana. Dallas has won Game 3 at home in all three previous series in these playoffs. We are projecting the Mavs to shoot better, play harder, and get the benefit of the doubt from the officials. This should move the needle enough to allow them to get back into this series with a win in Game 3.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on DAL.

The Celtics swept the Pacers despite failing to cover in three of four games. They trailed for the better part of the series, coming from behind in Games 1,3 & 4. Their path to the Finals was an easy one, especially in comparison to Dallas. The Mavs come in battle tested, beating the 1st place team in the West (Oklahoma City) and a Minnesota team that upset the defending champs. While the Celtics had the best record in the NBA in the regular season, it's important to consider that the Eastern Conference is inferior to the West. These two teams have an identical record over their final 20 games of the regular season, and Dallas has been more impressive in the post-season. The Celtics came out flat in Game 1 against the Pacers, and they might be a bit rusty given 10 days off since Game 4 at Indiana. I'll take the points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Over.

The Giants will host the Phillies in a matinee at The Bay on Monday, and reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell will make his return from paternity leave.

Snell (0-3, 11.40 ERA) allowed four runs on four hit and four walks over 3 1/3 innings in a no decision at Pittsburgh his last time out. After missing over a month, he looked sharp in a couple rehab starts at Triple A, but that didn't translate in his return to the majors. Now he has the added distraction of his personal life, so less than 100 percent focus would be completely understandable.

The Phillies hand the ball to Taijuan Walker, who is 3-0 with a 5.06 ERA. He's 4-3 with a 4.39 ERA in 10 career appearances versus the Giants.

Walker has started five games for the Phillies, all five went over. The Giants have gone over in all four of Snell's starts.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

The historical trends are clear, we see low scores in NBA Game 7s. The Knicks are banged up, with only two healthy starters remaining. This game should get ugly, very ugly. Expect a slow pace, with both teams struggling offensively and battling for every possession.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Palace.

Aston Villa has clinched a Champions League spot for the first time in over 40 years, and that sets them up for a let down here in an away match on the final day of the regular season. Crystal Palace comes into their final match undefeated in their last seven games. During that span they have wins over Manchester United, Liverpool, Newcastle and West Ham. The home team has a lot more to play for, and the last time Aston Villa played at Crystal Palace they lost by a score of 3-1.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Colorado.

The Avs stole home ice advantage in the series with a win in Game 1 in Dallas, and that's great news for Colorado fans as their team had the best home record in the NHL this season. The Avs were 31-9-1 at home, and perhaps aided by the elevation in Denver. Colorado won three of four meetings during the regular season, and they are 7-3 in their last 10 versus Dallas. The Avs lead the playoffs in scoring and they rank second on the power play this post-season.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on IND.

The Knicks might be in big trouble here, as both Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby suffered injuries in Game 2. Brunson was able to play through the pain, while Anunoby left and did not return. It seems likely that one or both could be unavailable for Game 3. Of course Brunson gets all the headlines as he's leading the playoffs in scoring, but keep in mind that the Knicks were only considered a contender after the trade that brought in OG Anunoby from Toronto. Without him they have a record of 30-29, and with him they were 20-3 during the regular season, and 6-2 in the playoffs. He's their best defender, and it would be a huge loss if he misses any time. Already without Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson, and Bojan Bogdanovic, the Knicks are running out of bodies to throw out there. Next man up only works when you have the depth on the bench, and right now the Knicks don't have any depth. Indiana on the other hand has seven guys averaging double digits in scoring. Tyrese Haliburton scored 34 points despite being listed as questionable for Game 2. I like the Pacers to win Game 3 wire to wire, and I really think New York is in trouble in this series moving forward. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over.

The Canucks won all four meetings in this series during the regular season, and three of the four games saw 7 or more goals. The Canucks are down to their 3rd string goaltender, 23 year old Latvian Aturs Silovs. The Oilers went over in four of five games in the first round, and I expect Edmonton to come out hot here in Vancouver. Edmonton scored two first period goals in Game 1 versus LA, one in Game 2 and three in Game 3. The Oilers power play was one of the best in the league in the regular season, and they are converting on an incredible 45 percent of their chances in the playoffs.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on NYK.

The Pacers got lucky that they faced a Milwaukee team without Giannis and Damian Lillard for most of their first round series. Even the shorthanded Bucks held the Pacers under 100 points in wins in Game 1 and Game 5 in Milwaukee. The Bucks are a below average defensive team, while the Knicks ranked 1st in the Eastern Conference in opponents scoring average. Jalen Brunson averaged 35.5 points, 9 rebound and 4.5 assists per game in the first round, while Tyrese Haliburton averaged just 16 points per game in the first round, and has really struggled since the All Star break. With Haliburton questionable (expected to play) everything favors the Knicks in Game 1. I like New York to open up an early lead and win wire to wire.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Under.

Cleveland took 2-of-3 in a home series versus LA over the weekend, failing to reach the total in all three games. We should see another pitcher's duel in Game 1 versus Detroit.

Triston McKenzie will toe the slab for the Tribe, and he's allowed two runs or less in each of his last three starts. He's 3-2 with a 1.05 ERA in seven career starts versus the Tigers.

Detroit will hand the ball to Jack Flaherty, who will luckily not have to face the AL batting leader who has been sent to the DL.

The wind is blowing in, and these teams each have Top 5 bullpens.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over.

Jose Aldo has gone the distance in each of his last four fights, and he faces an opponent who has gone the distance in four of his last six fights. The bookmakers have this projected to be a close fight, and it would be no surprise if this fight goes the distance.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on VAN.

Austin has just four wins in their last 21 away matches, while Vancouver is +18 in goal differential at home since the beginning of last season. Vancouver is 3-1-1 in their last five matches versus Austin, and they are 3-0 in their last three home games in this series. A win tonight would put Vancouver in 1st place in the Western Conference standings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Forrest.

Nottingham Forest has plenty to play for on Saturday, as they are currently tied on points with Luton Town, clear of the relegation zone only based on tie breaker criteria. Relegation is not in question for Sheffield United, who sit dead last in the Premier League, 10 points back of Nottingham Forest. Sheffield has a home record of 2-4-11 with a -33 goal differential in those matches. Sheffield has conceded a whopping 97 goals in 35 matches this season, which can only be described as "disgraceful".

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on OVER.

I had the over in Game 2, and here is what I said before the game: 

“Game 1 went way under the total of 231.5, and the opening number for Game 2 was 225.5. That has been bet down even further to 220.5. I think this is an over-correction. While we know scoring is down in the playoffs, and unders have cashed at a phenomenal rate so far, let's not forget who the Pacers are. They led the league in scoring, averaging 123.3 points per game, almost three points per game more than #2 Boston. The ranked second in the league in possessions per game behind the Washington Wizards. Prior to Game 1, the Pacers last game at Milwaukee had a total of 262. Four of five regular season meetings saw totals of 250 or higher. The Pacers had scored 119 or more points in nine straight versus Milwaukee before Game 1.”

I think Game 1 was an anomaly, and we should see high scores in this series moving forward. The Pacers ranked 27th in the NBA in the regular season allowing over 120 points per game. Milwaukee ranked 21st in the NBA allowing over 216 points per game.

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on SEA.

The Mariners have put a slow start behind them, coming into Game 3 of this series versus Arizona as winners of nine of their last 11 overall.

Logan Gilbert will toe the slab for Seattle, and he's been lights out so far this season. The 26 year old tossed six scoreless innings, striking out six and allowing just two hits in a win at Texas his last time out.

The D'Backs hand the ball to Brandon Pfaadt, who hasn't been the same pitcher he was in last year's playoffs. He's allowed seven runs on 10 hits and four walks in 11 innings in two losses on the road so far.

The Mariners bullpen ranks 1st in the majors with a 2.40 ERA among relief pitchers.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over. 

I had the over in Game 2, and here is what I said before the game: 

“Game 1 went way under the total of 231.5, and the opening number for Game 2 was 225.5. That has been bet down even further to 220.5. I think this is an over-correction. While we know scoring is down in the playoffs, and unders have cashed at a phenomenal rate so far, let's not forget who the Pacers are. They led the league in scoring, averaging 123.3 points per game, almost three points per game more than #2 Boston. The ranked second in the league in possessions per game behind the Washington Wizards. Prior to Game 1, the Pacers last game at Milwaukee had a total of 262. Four of five regular season meetings saw totals of 250 or higher. The Pacers had scored 119 or more points in nine straight versus Milwaukee before Game 1.”

I think Game 1 was an anomaly, and we should see high scores in this series moving forward. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over.

Game 1 went way under the total of 231.5, and the opening number for Game 2 was 225.5. That has been bet down even further to 220.5. I think this is an over-correction. While we know scoring is down in the playoffs, and unders have cashed at a phenomenal rate so far, let's not forget who the Pacers are. They led the league in scoring, averaging 123.3 points per game, almost three points per game more than #2 Boston. The ranked second in the league in possessions per game behind the Washington Wizards. Prior to Game 1, the Pacers last game at Milwaukee had a total of 262. Four of five regular season meetings saw totals of 250 or higher. The Pacers had scored 119 or more points in nine straight versus Milwaukee before Game 1.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over. 

The Cubs swept yesterday's double header, and both games went under the total. We expect that in a day game following a double header both these bullpens will be taxed. That means a struggling starter could get a longer leash. Speaking of struggling starters, Kyle Hendricks has been tagged for five or more runs in five or fewer innings in each of four starts this season. He got rocked for seven runs in 4 1/3 innings in a loss at Arizona his last time out. 
 

GL, 
 

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on BOS.

The Bruins have been historically one of the most successful teams in history in the NHL Playoffs. That includes recent history as well as long term. The Leafs on the other hand are notorious for their futility in the playoffs. Boston has owned the Leafs, sweeping the season series and winning seven straight meetings dating back to January of 2023. The most important factor in a playoff series is almost always goaltending, and the Leafs starter Ilya Samsonov has allowed 11 goals on 52 shots in his last two starts. He ranks 38th in the 32 team league with a GAA of 3.18. The Bruins starter Jeremy Swayman ranks in the Top 10 in GAA (2.53) and Top 5 in save percentage (.916). Boston is tougher, better defensively and built for success in the post-season.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on the New York Knicks.

The Sixers just barely got past the Miami Heat in the Play-in, and that was with Jimmy Butler limited by a serious knee injury. Joel Embiid scored just 23 points, and his playoff struggles are fresh in the mind of Sixers fans. The 2023 MVP averaged 34.7 points per game this season, but he scored just 23.7 points per game in last year's playoffs, and 23.6 points per game in the 2022 post-season. Philly lost 3-of-4 in the season series, and scored just 86.5 points per game during that span. The Knicks ranked #1 in the Eastern Conference in opponent's scoring average, allowing 108.2 points per game. New York is 20-3 this season when OG Anunoby is in the lineup. This looks like a tough matchup for Philly.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on OVER.

The Giants signed Blake Snell in late March, which didn't allow him to get into any games during Spring Training.

Snell (0-2, 12.86 ERA) has been plagued by slow starts over the last few years, so no surprise to see him struggle in his first two starts with San Francisco. Snell finished last season with an NL best 2.25 ERA and won the Cy Young, but he started the season going 0-4 with a 5.48 ERA in his first five starts. He started the 2022 season going 0-5 with 5.60 ERA in his first seven starts.

The D'Backs hand the ball to Jordan Montgomery, who was also acquired in late March, and has not faced major league hitters since the end of last year.

We have two big name pitchers, but neither is in a good position to be at their best at this point in the season. The wind is blowing out in San Francisco, and expect to see some runs.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on ARI.

The Cardinals come into Arizona as losers of three of four, and both these teams have a 6-7 record so far this season.

Stephen Matz will toe the slab for St. Louis, and he's off to a great start. Matz is 1-0 with a 1.74 ERA in two starts. Facing the D'Backs bats in Arizona appears to be a tough spot, Arizona ranks 3rd in the majors in scoring.

The D'Backs hand the ball to Brandon Pfaadt, who allowed one run on five hits, fanning five in his home debut.

Despite a lackluster record so far, Airzona is tied for 1st in the NL with a run differential of +17. The Cards are -5 in run differential.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on COL.

Dallas sits 1st in the Western Conference standings, three points clear of Colorado. The Stars are on the road for the second game of a back to back in Denver tonight, and the Avs have the best home record in the NHL. History favors the home team as Colorado is 6-1 in their last seven versus Dallas and 3-0 at home during that span. Alexandar Georgiev is 23-4 with a 2.54 GAA at home this season. This appears to be a tough spot for the road team.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on EDM.

The Battle of Alberta was once one of the most heated rivalries in sports, but it has been rather one-sided lately. The Oilers have won eight of the last 10, and they are 5-0 in their last five at the Saddledome. The Flames already have one foot on the golf course, while Edmonton is gearing up for a potential Stanley Cup run. The Oilers still have plenty to play for as they jockey for seeding in the Western Conference.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

I had the under in the Huskies win over Illinois, and they didn't even come close to the total of 155.5. Here is what I said before tip off: "I had to rub my eyes when I saw that the total for this game opened at 155.5. I think the bookmakers came up with this number based on offensive efficiency numbers, while ignoring pace of play. Illinois may be the most efficient offense in the country, but they scored just 72 points in a low scoring battle versus Iowa State. It won't get any easier against a UCONN team that ranks 307th in pace of play averaging 68 possessions per game. UCONN hasn't seen a combined 155 points in any NCAA Tournament game in 10 years. We saw six of eight games fail to reach the total in the Sweet 16, and there is every reason to expect these teams to tighten up even more as we get closer to the Final." The Crimson Tide scored 89 points and did go over the total in their game against Clemson. That game was on pace to go under with Alabama leading 58-53 with just 8 minutes remaining, but there were 60 points scored in the final eight minutes. These teams played last Novermber, and the total for that game was 148. The Huskies won 82-67 falling well short of 161.5.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Aston Villa.

Aston Villa is currently holding down a Champions League spot, sitting 4th in the Premier League table. They have a home game against Brentford, who are 3-1-11 in away matches this season. While midfielder Jacob Ramsey will be a big loss for Villa, the return of Ollie Watkins and Emi Martinez should soften the blow. Villa is 2-0-1 in their last three versus Brentford, and their last home game in this series was a 4-0 win back in 2022.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

I had to rub my eyes when I saw that the total for this game opened at 155.5. I think the bookmakers came up with this number based on offensive efficiency numbers, while ignoring pace of play. Illinois may be the most efficient offense in the country, but they scored just 72 points in a low scoring battle versus Iowa State. It won't get any easier against a UCONN team that ranks 307th in pace of play averaging 68 possessions per game. UCONN hasn't seen a combined 155 points in any NCAA Tournament game in 10 years. We saw six of eight games fail to reach the total in the Sweet 16, and there is every reason to expect these teams to tighten up even more as we get closer to the Final.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on TENN.

There aren't many teams that can shoot 3-of-25 from beyond the arc and salvage a win, but Tennessee did just that against Texas. The Vols scored 79 points per game while winning the SEC, expect them to bounce back with a better offensive performance here against Creighton. The Blue Jays also survived a close call winning in overtime after Oregon failed to win it at the free throw line in regulation. Rick Barnes past failures in the NCAA Tournament are well documented, but I wonder if that has influenced this line. The SEC champs have the horses, they have overcome some adversity, and I think it's wrong to assume past failure will haunt them forever.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

This is a rematch of last year's Natty, and UCONN won that game by a score of 76-59. The Huskies have won nine straight, and five of their last six opponents have scored 60 points or fewer. UCONN prefers to play at a slow pace, ranking 302nd nationally averaging 68 possessions per game. San Diego State averages just 69.6 possessions per game. They have played strong defense in the tournament so far, allowing an average of 61.5 points per game. We should expect a low score here, and I think the Aztecs will be held to 60 or less.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on VAN.

Vancouver is off to a hell of a start, sitting in second place in the Western Conference with a record of 3-0-1. They have long been one of the bottom feeders of MLS, but even at the worst of times they are competitive at home. The Whitecaps have won two of their last three home matches versus Salt Lake, outscoring them by a combined 7-4 margin in those contests. The addition of former Salt Lake midfielder Damir-Kreilach makes Vancouver a better team, and also adds more motivation as he faces his former squad.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on UNC.

Both the BIG10 and the ACC appeared to have an off year, but the Tar Heels finished with the best record in their conference and led the ACC in scoring. The Spartans struggled all season, losing early to JMU and then coming into the Tourney as losers of five of seven. Many pundits asked how this Spartans team even qualified for the Tournament. As impressive as their win over the Bulldogs was on Thursday, it was part of an overall theme of SEC teams getting rolled in the first round. The Spartans shot 50 percent from the field and 43.5 percent from beyond the arc, yet only scored 69 points. Playing the Tar Heels in Charlotte is going to be a far bigger challenge.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on FAU.

Northwestern ranks 334th in pace of play averaging 67 possessions per game. They rank 4th in the BIG10 in opponent's scoring average allowing 69 points per game. The Owls won their first round matchup by a score of 66-65 versus Memphis last year. The Owls are not getting much hype for a team that went all the way to the Final Four a year ago, despite returning all their starters from that squad. They won 25 games this season, and I don't see anything stopping them from another impressive showing in the tournament. Northwestern has a few key injuries, with Ty Berry and Matt Nicholson out of the lineup. They come limping into the tournament as losers of three of their last four.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on SOCAR.

The Gamecocks were #1 in the SEC in opponents scoring average, allowing just 67 points per game. That's all the more impressive when you consider they played the likes of Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama and Auburn. The Ducks won the PAC12 Tournament, and they have held four consecutive opponents under 70 points. While it's an impressive run for the Ducks, I think they might have peaked a little early. The Gamecocks don't get much respect from bookmakers, and even less respect from bettors. This is despite the fact that they are a highly profitable 23-10 ATS this season. Dana Altman has an impressive record at the NCAA Tournament as head coach of the Ducks, but I am not sure he has the horses this year.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on USF.

South Florida can't be that good! I am sure people been saying that all year, and if you been stepping in front of them they been costing you a ton of money. The Bulls are no bull! The real deal, they didn't win 16 games in the American by accident. The Bulls crushed ECU by 22 yesterday, and their next victim is a UAB team that has been hot and cold. UAB won some big games this season, but down the stretch they folded like a cheap suit. After a three game stretch where they beat FAU and North Texas, they went on a 1-3 run that included home losses to Rice and Wichita State. This game is South Florida's to win, and anything other than a double digit win here will qualify as a choke job IMO.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on CIN. 

The Jayhawks come into the Conference Tournament without their top two scorers (Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar). This looks like a clear case of Bill Self waiving the white flag, as they look forward to the NCAA Tournament. Cincinnati will relish an opportunity to take down a blue blood, as the Bearcats need as many wins as they can get. Cinci only lost by five at Kansas during the regular season, and Dickinson and McCullar scored a combined 30 points in that game. Kansas has been average at best away from Lawrence all season, even when at full strength. They lost at UCF and at West Viriginia, and they might not have much fight in them here in a neutral site game. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on VGK.

Vegas is serious about defending it's Stanley Cup championship, making a ton of deals at the deadline to shore up their lineup. They added Noah Hanifin, Anthony Mantha and Thomas Hertl, and Mantha and Hanifin are already in the lineup. Vegas has plenty of work to do, as they are currently sitting in the final Wild Card spot in the West. They can't afford to leave any points on the table, and this looks like a good spot to take advantage of a struggling Seattle team. The Kraken are eight points back of the final Wild Card spot, and not a serious contender to make the playoffs.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on NMSU.

These are two of the bottom feeders in the Conference USA, and between the two of them they have lost 24 of 26 road games. The Aggies have been solid at home though, with a record of 11-3. This is a the final home game for the Aggies, a revenge game against Florida International who beat them 77-67 earlier this year. The Panthers are 1-11 on the road, and that win came in non conference pay in November against the Houston Christian Huskies (the minnows of the Southland).

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, and Dayton's loss by a score of 49-47 at VCU last month is a fine example of that. Neither team has scored 70 points in any of the last four meetings, and the total has been 135 or lower in each of the last eight meetings. Dayton ranks 348th nationally averaging just 66 possessions per game, and VCU is a willing dance partner as they are averaging just over 68 possessions per game. Perhaps after Dayton scored 100 at Saint Louis in their last game, and tallied 80 against Davidson in their last home game, this total is a little a higher than it probably should be.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Marist.

Iona is the big brand name in this conference, but after Rick Pitino left for St. John's he picked the roster clean. This team has a losing record in conference play, and a few weeks ago their leading scorer left the team for personal reasons. They have since lost five of six, only beating last place Manhattan. They are coming off a blowout loss at Quinnipiac, and now they are playing at Marist who are just a game back of the first place Bobcats. The Red Foxes have won six of seven, and they beat the Gaels at Iona earlier this season. This looks like a mismatch and the line is short IMO.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on SOCAR.

The Gamecocks are just one game out of first place in the SEC, and they are an underdog on the road at Texas A&M. The Aggies have lost four straight, and that includes a home loss to Arkansas. This is a revenge game for the Gamecocks, after losing at home to Texas A&M in January. South Carolina had won eight of the previous nine meetings between the two teams. These two teams are trending in opposite directions, and I'll take the points with the better team.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on TOR.

The Pacers won in Toronto by a score of 127-125 before the All Star break, but they didn't cover as a two-point favorite. The underdog has covered in each of the last four meetings between these teams, and I expect that trend to continue tonight. This is a tough spot for Indiana, playing the second game of a back to back coming off a blowout win over the Mavericks. The Pacers are just 2-8 in back to backs this season, and the two games they won were both decided by just two points. One of those losses came at home by a score of 132-131 to Toronto, and the Pacers have allowed opponents to average 126 points in those 10 games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on MIN.

The Timberwolves ran into a desperate Milwaukee team in their first game out of the All Star break, and despite rallying late they lost 112-107. They host the Brooklyn Nets in the second game of a back to back, and the Nets looked pretty awful in a 121-93 loss at Toronto. If that's any indication of how the team is responding to the interim head coach, Brooklyn could struggle down the stretch. Brooklyn are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against Minnesota, and they are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games on the road. I expect the Wolves to bounce back with a double digit home win.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on MUTD.

It has been a difficult season for Erik Ten Hag and Manchester United, but things appear to be falling into place. The Red Devils have played themselves back into contention for Champions League spot with four straight wins. Luton Town is struggling to stay out of the relegation zone, sitting just one point clear of Everton. Manchester United has twice as many wins in away matches than Luton Town has in their home matches. I will ride the Red Devils while they are hot.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on VGK.

This looks like a let down spot for the Canes, playing the second game of a back to back on the road at Vegas. Only the Colorado Avalanche have more home wins than the Golden Knights, and Vegas might have an even better record if it hadn't been for an injury to starting goaltender Adin Hill. He ranks 1st in the NHL in save percentage, and 2nd in GAA. Hill is 7-2 with a 1.86 GAA 11 home starts. The Canes might turn to Spencer Martin between the pipes in this second game of a back to back, and he's 1-4 with a 3.95 GAA in five road starts.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on NEV.

The Wolfpack are 12-1 at home, and they have a revenge game on tap against New Mexico on Tuesday. The Lobos crushed Nevada at home earlier this season by a score of 89-55. The Wolfpack had won nine straight versus New Mexico prior to that. Nevada has won four of five, and three of those four wins came against ranked teams (San Diego State, Utah State and Colorado State). New Mexico has lost two of three, with their only win during that span coming at Wyoming. This looks like two teams trending in opposite directions, and a significant edge for the home team.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on OVER.

So based on the overall body of work in the regular season, you would have to say that San Francisco has been the better team. Go back to the final few weeks of the regular season and the playoffs, and you can't say that. San Francisco was lucky in both playoff games against Green Bay and Detroit. Jared Goff and Jordan Love both had big games at San Francisco, and now the Niners defense faces the most dynamic duo in playoff history in a dome at a neutral site. Andy Reid off a bye week should have a full bag of tricks at his disposal, and the Chiefs should get their share of points. The Buffalo Bills ran all over the Chiefs in the divisional round, totaling 182 yards and two TDs on the ground. Expect San Francisco to have success in the running game.

Prop bets include:

Mahomes most passing yards -155

Kelce most receiving yards +280

Kelce anytime TD +100

CMC over 87.5 rush yards -130

CMC to win MVP +475

CMC 2+ TDs  +260

Mahomes over 25.5 rush yards  -125

49ers over 1.5 rushing TDs +170

MVP QBvsField = Field +200

This is a 10* play on KC.

So based on the overall body of work in the regular season, you would have to say that San Francisco has been the better team. Go back to the final few weeks of the regular season and the playoffs, and you can't say that. San Francisco was lucky in both playoff games against Green Bay and Detroit. It was questionable coaching decisions that cost the Lions, something that has normally been attributed to Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco gave up double digit leads against the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, they allowed 21 unanswered points against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl and then there is the infamous Super Bowl loss to the Patriots when Shanahan was with Atlanta. The Chiefs coaching staff has dominated opponents in these playoffs, and the offense appears to have flipped a switch after struggling for the first half of the regular season. The Chiefs have the momentum, the better coach, and the better quarterback. I can't bet against that!

Prop bets include:

Mahomes most passing yards -155

Kelce most receiving yards +280

Kelce anytime TD +100

CMC over 87.5 rush yards -130

CMC to win MVP +475

CMC 2+ TDs  +260

Mahomes over 25.5 rush yards  -125

49ers over 1.5 rushing TDs +170

This is a 5* play on Over.

Don't look now but Erik Ten Hag has the Red Devils playing on top form! Manchester United has struggled all season, but they come into this match at Aston Villa unbeaten in their last five matches. They scored a whopping 15 goals in those games. United have five wins in away games, only three teams in the Premier League have more. Aston Villa has just one win in it's last five matches, and that was against bottom of the table Sheffield United. History suggests a high score, as these clubs have gone over in four of the last five meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on ARK.

Arkansas lost 76-66 at Georgia earlier this season, setting up a revenge spot here at home. The Bulldogs are 2-6 since that win over Arkansas, and they have struggled in recent games at Arkansas. The Razorbacks have won five straight at home versus Georgia, and all five of those games were 10+ point blowout wins. The Bulldogs built a solid record with a soft schedule early in the season, but reality is starting to set in as they play more tough SEC games. Georgia are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games against Arkansas.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Nevada.

The Aztecs have dominated this series, winning nine of the last 10 meetings. They did lose at Nevada last year though, by a score of 75-66. San Diego State has failed to cover in eight of the last 10 meetings, and their last win at Nevada came by just one point. The Aztecs are 4-5 on the road, and Nevada is 11-1 at home this season. San Diego State is coming off a road win at Air Force, but had lost at New Mexico, Boise State and Colorado State in their previous three road games. I'll take the home team here to get the win over a ranked team.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on UAB.

The Blazers have won 10 of their last 12 games, and they are coming off an outright win as an underdog at North Texas. They had previously lost on the road at Charlotte by just six, and covered as a double digit underdog at FAU. Overall the Blazers are 4-3 on the road this season, and they have won seven straight against SMU. That includes three outright wins at SMU. The Mustangs are 10-2 at home, but their last home game was a four point win over Tulane. It looks like the home team is asked to cover too many points here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Liverpool.

Liverpool sits top of the table in the Premier League five points clear of Manchester City and Arsenal. They will be an underdog at Arsenal on Sunday, and Liverpool has lost just once in 11 away matches this season. They have a Premier League best +11 goal differential in those games. Arsenal has only one win in their last five matches versus Liverpool, and that is despite the fact that three of those were home matches for Arsenal.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on UK.

The Gators lost at home to Kentucky earlier this season, so is this a revenge spot? I don't like the revenge angle here, as Kentucky is the far better team and Florida struggles on the road. The Gators have lost three of four road games this season, and they were 4-7 on the road last year. Kentucky is 9-1 SU in the last 10 head to head meetings, and they have covered in five straight and eight of the last 10 versus Florida. The Gators rank dead last in the SEC in opponent's scoring, and Kentucky ranks second in the conference in scoring averaging over 88 points per game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Palace.

Relegation is not a question for Sheffield United, with just two wins and 10 points in 21 matches, it's a forgone conclusion. Crystal Palace on the other hand is five points clear of the relegation zone, but that makes this game even more critical for their survival in the Premier League. Sheffield is winless in away matches, with a pair of draws and eight losses an a -20 goal differential. Palace has won three straight meetings versus Sheffield by a combined 5-0 score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on DET.

The Lions are coming off back to back wins, and plenty of momentum with a chance to go to the Super Bowl. Their defense has been suspect, but perhaps in a "bend don't break" fashion. The 49ers on the other hand got quite lucky that the Green Bay Packers missed a key field goal last week. Brock Purdy appeared to struggle at times, and the young QB is facing more pressure than he's ever faced. Jared Goff has been here before, and he's looked pretty solid throwing for 564 yards, three TDs on 74 percent passing in this post-season. I expect Detroit to get their share of points, and at least hang with San Francisco.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Over.

The Chiefs offense was humming in a bad weather game in Buffalo last week, albeit against a banged up Buffalo defense. That being said, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce appear to have their swagger back. The Chiefs defense had no answers for Josh Allen and the Bills offense, and if it wasn't for a few bad drops by Bills receivers, Buffalo likely wins that game. After Josh Allen ran for 72 yards and two TDs, you would expect Lamar Jackson to run all over this banged up Kansas City defense. These teams have scored 48+ combined points in each of the last five head to head meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Wisconsin.

The Badgers as just a slight home favorite has me scratching my head here, but after digging a little deeper I think I can see why that is. Historically the home favorite has not been a good play in this series, as the road team is 6-0 straight up in the last six meetings. This is just one indicator, and the majority of the rest of the data still points me toward Whisky. The Badgers are 10-1 at home, while Sparty has lost three of four on the road. The Badgers are 7-1 in the BIG10, while Sparty is 4-4 with all four wins coming against teams with a losing record. Wisconsin ranks 1st in the BIG10 in free throw percentage (77%) while Sparty ranks 11th (70%). That right there could prove to be the difference in a close game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

The Nuggets have failed to reach the total in three straight, and they rank dead last in the NBA in pace of play. The Knicks are right behind them, with both teams averaging roughly 100 possessions per game. The Knicks have been a different team since the trade with Toronto, and they have now gone under in 10 of their last 11 games. These teams have gone under in four of the last six head to head meetings, and it doesn't look like the bookmakers have adjusted here with what looks like an inflated number.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on NYI.

The Isles won in OT in Patrick Roy's coaching debut, and they ran into a hot goaltender in his second game behind the bench. They held a 42-27 advantage in shots on goal, but they lost 3-2 to Adin Hill and the Vegas Golden Knights. Now it will be a return to Montreal for Patrick Roy, which is sure to be an emotional experience. The Habs have lost six of eight, and they will likely prove no match for an Islanders squad highly motivated to make a good impression on their new coach.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on WASH.

So Colorado might well be the better team here, but they have no business coming in to Seattle as a road favorite. The Huskies only home loss in conference play came by just two points versus Oregon. They beat Gonzaga in a home game outside of the PAC12. Colorado has lost all four road games so far this season, and has dropped four of their last five at Washington. This appears to be a case of the wrong team favored.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on BUF.

Ever since the Bills overtime loss at Kansas City in the 2022 Playoffs, they have been waiting for this moment. They get the Chiefs, and this time they get the home field advantage. The Bills have won six straight, a winning streak that began with a 20-17 win at Kansas City. Josh Allen has a quarterback rating of 102.4 at home, and just 83 on the road. He ran for 74 yards and a TD against the Steelers. What do I expect from each member of the Buffalo Bills in this game? Whatever it takes!

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on VGK.

The Knights host the Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday night, and the bookmakers might have over compensated for the injury to Jack Eichel. Vegas is riding a hot goaltender in Logan Thompson, who is 10-4 with a 2.16 GAA at home this season. He's also posted a 2.17 GAA in the month of January. The Golden Knights have the best home record in the NHL, with 17 wins in Sin City. They also have the edge in special teams play, and the Penguins struggling power play might just cost them here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

The easiest way to lose a fortune betting the NFL is to bet based on last week's results. We just saw the Packers go into Dallas and run all over the Cowboys. The bad news for Green Bay is that Mike McCarthy isn't coaching the 49ers, and they aren't getting anything for free here. The 49ers held opponents to 17 points per game during the regular season, and opponents averaged less than 90 yards per game on the ground. Coming off a bye, we should see San Francisco cause all sorts of problems for Jordan Love. The Packers have their hands full with CMC, and when on offense I expect the 49ers to burn up plenty of clock.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

Of the 362 Division 1 teams in the country, Davidson ranks 360th in pace of play averaging just 63.8 possessions per game. The Wildcats host Richmond Saturday, and these teams have failed to reach the total in back to back games the last two seasons. Richmond also plays at a slow pace, ranking 282nd nationally averaging 68.8 possessions per game. The Spiders are coming off a 63-61 win at Duquesne, and their previous road game was 58-56 win at Loyala Chicago. I expect both teams to score fewer than 70 points here

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on NMSU.

While Western Kentucky comes into this game with a record of 13-4, their strength of schedule is questionable. According to TeamRank.com they rank 215th nationally in strength of schedule. New Mexico State on the hand has played New Mexico twice, losing by a bucket at home. They lost to Kentucky, Fresno State, Tulsa and Louisville. The Aggies are 7-1 at home, and they have covered the spread in five straight home games. Western Kentucky is 4-2 on the road so far, but they were 4-9 on the road last year. Give me the home team at a pickem!

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Dallas.

These two teams are trending in opposite directions. The Kings have lost eight of their last nine overall, and five of their last six on the road. They #1 goaltender Cam Talbot is 0-5 with a 3.59 GAA in his last five starts. The Stars have won three of their last four, and they are just five points out of first place in the Central Division. The Stars have won four of their last five home games against LA.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on TB.

The Eagles are a complete mess, coming into the playoffs as losers of five of their last six. Jalen Hurts appears to be battling injuries, and he's thrown more picks (5) than touchdowns (4) over his last five starts. No AJ Brown for the Eagles, and the defense is banged up on the back end. They might even have to move a corner to safety if Blankenship can't go. The Bucs defense is 100 percent healthy, and Baker Mayfield will play despite a sore ankle and bruised ribs. This looks like a case of the wrong team favored, and I'll take the home dog plus the points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on MINN.

The Gophers finished dead last in the BIG10 last year, but they are a far better team this season. Iowa on the other hand appears to be trending in the opposite direction. Coming off a big home win over Nebraska, this looks like a let down spot for a Hawkeyes team that is 0-4 on the road. The Gophers are 11-1 at home, and they are looking to bounce back from a road loss at Indiana. Minnesota are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games, and they have covered in nine straight home games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on LA-Tech.

The Flames haven't received a warm welcome to Conference USA, losing their first two games in conference play to Jacksonville State and Western Kentucky. A road game at LA-Tech isn't a great spot to get back on track. The Bulldogs are 8-0 at home, and the Flames have failed to cover in four of their last five road games. The Bulldogs have an impressive resume, and what stands out perhaps more than their wins is that their losses in tough road games were all close games against mostly tough opponents. New Mexico State, Colorado State and Grand Canyon for example. Their only conference loss came by four points at first place Sam Houston.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Over.

Michigan ranked #1 in the country in scoring defense this season, allowing less than 20 points per game. They are coming off a Rose Bowl win over Alabama, holding Jalen Milroe to just 116 passing yards and sacking him six times. Why is this game going to be different? Well Michael Penix Jr. is by far the best QB this Michigan defense will have seen this season. During the regular season the best QB they saw was Kyle McCord, and Ohio State scored 24 points on the road, outdoors in the winter at Ann Arbor. This is an indoor game in a dome, with an artificial surface, and that should favor the Huskies. Michigan has gone over the total in 16 of their last 21 neutral site games since 2004. While Alabama's offensive line struggled, and Jalen Milroe couldn't get the ball out quick enough, Michael Penix Jr is more than capable of getting the ball out in a hurry, and avoiding pressure. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on GT.

The Yellow Jackets might not be the best team in the ACC, but they are one of the best teams when they play on their home court. This is evidenced by wins over Mississippi State and Duke, both ranked in the Top 25. Boston College has road wins over The Citadel and Vanderbilt, but this is a huge step up in class. History favors the home team, as Georgia Tech has won five straight versus the Eagles, covering the spread in all five of those games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

Illinois comes in averaging over 82 points per game, but those numbers came in non-conference play. It's time to buckle up for the BIG10, and their one conference game came against Rutgers, winning by a score of 76-58. Terrance Shannon Jr. scored 23 points in that game, and he leads the team in scoring averaging almost 22 points per game. Nobody else averages 12 points per game, and Shannon is their best three-point shooter hitting better than 40 percent from beyond the arc. The kid is a great player, but he's got himself in some trouble with the law and he will be away from the team for the foreseeable future. The Wildcats lost by a score of 66-62 at Illinois in the most recent meeting between the two teams. The under is 6-0 in the last six meetings, and the total for tonight's game is higher than it was in the last four meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Alabama.

Michigan has been consistent all year long, but they haven't played the same schedule as Alabama. The only loss on Alabama's schedule came in non-conference play against Texas in Week 2. Who did Michigan play in Week 2? The Wolverines didn't play a ranked team until the Penn State game in mid November. Jim Harbaugh is just 5-16 in his career versus Top 10 ranked teams, while Nick Saban is 9-3 in the College Football Playoffs. Michigan's offensive line has bullied opposing defenses, but if Alabama can win the line of scrimmage against Georgia, they should be able to hold their own against Michigan. Jalen Milroe is far more dynamic than JJ McCarthy, and Alabama's defense held Georgia to 2.5 yards per carry in the SEC Championship Game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on YSU.

The Oakland Grizzlies travel to Youngstown coming off three straight losses on the road. They lost both meetings versus the Penguins last year, and they also lost at Youngstown in the 2022 season. The Penguins are 7-0 at home, and they are 2-0 in the Horizon. They crushed the Cleveland State Vikings by 25 points, and the Grizzlies last game was a loss at Cleveland State. This could be a blowout win for the home team.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on MARSH.

The Thundering Herd finished 2nd in the Sun Belt last season, tied with the Ragin Cajuns. They were 15-2 at home, and they have a pair of senior starters back from that team. The Ragin Cajuns have lost four of five one the road so far this season, and they were just 7-7 in road games last year. Louisiana-Lafayette are 1-7 SU in their last eight games on the road, while Marshall has won 12 of their last 16 in the Sun Belt.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Utah.

Both these teams are 9-2, but Utah has more impressive wins. They won at St. Mary's and they beat #14 ranked BYU. The Utes are 6-0 at home, and they won by 14 in the most recent meeting versus WSU last January. Utah is 8-2 straight up, and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 versus the Cougars. This will be the first true road game for Washington State, and they were 4-8 on the road last year.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on EWU.

So the 4-7 Eagles are a home favorite here against the 9-3 Vikings. I think this line is a product of these teams overall records, despite the fact that strength of schedule tells us that Eastern Washington is much better than their record would indicate. The Eagles losses came against five teams from the PAC12, and road games versus teams from the BIG12 and SEC. They have won 13 of their last 14 home games, and they have won seven straight head to head versus the Vikings. They are 5-0 ATS in the last five head to head meetings

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Cleveland.

The Jets are coming off a dubious 30-28 home win over Washington. They blew a 20-0 lead, but hit the game winning 54 yard field goal in the final seconds. Trevor Siemian threw for 217 yards on 27-of-49 passing against the NFL's worst defense. Now the Jets are on the road on a short week, and they face the NFL's top pass defense. The Browns are on a roll since the arrival of Joe Flacco, who threw for 368 yards and three TDs in a win at Houston on Sunday. The Browns are 7-1 at home this season, and the Jets have failed to cover in three straight road games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on AFC Bournemouth.

It should not come as a shock that Bournemouth got off to a terrible start. Bournemouth fired manager Gary O'Neil over the summer and replaced him with Andoni Iraola, and it was always going to take some time to adjust. Iraola was successful fielding a competitive side with a low payroll in Spain, and that success has carried over here in his first season in the Premier League. Bournemouth come in undefeated in their last six matches, hosting a Fulham side that has just one win in nine away matches, and a -11 goal differential in those games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on SF.

A lot of people are picking these two teams to meet in the Super Bowl, but the Ravens appear to be a team due for some regression. San Francisco had it's three game losing skid in the middle of the season, but since then they appear to have forgotten how to lose. The Niners have covered in six straight, and they are 13-1 SU in their last 14 home games. This looks like a good spot to fade the Ravens.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on DENVER.

The defending champs are 11-2 at home, and the Joker is still in a class of his own. While the mainstream media refuses to five Nikola Jokic the credit he is due, he continues to dominate everything in his path. The Warriors five game winning streak only puts them a game above .500, and four of those five wins came at home. Now they are on the road, and Steph Curry averages over 30 points per game at home, and just over 26 points per game on the road. The Warriors have lost four straight in this series, and they are 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Over.

This number looks a little too low. Perhaps the bookmakers haven't fully adjusted for the fact that Georgia Tech is playing at a far faster pace than they did last year. Their average of over 72 possessions per game ranks among the faster teams in the country. Nevada is right behind them averaging just short of 72 points per game. Nevada comes in averaging over 79 points per game. The Yellow Jackets have averaged over 72 points per game, and they have allowed 71 points per game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Denver.

The 3-11 Patriots are likely going to find it tough to get up for a Christmas Even game on the road in Denver. This team has nine starters listed as questionable just 48 hrs prior to the game. We know there will be a wholesale change over the off-season, and we don't expect the compete level to be very high in these final few games. This is a Denver team that can still make the playoffs, but they need to win this game. Russell Wilson has thrown for 1,382 yards, 13 TDs and just one INT at home this season.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on TB.

This is a tough spot for the Knights playing on the road at Tampa just days before Christmas. Andrei Vasilevskij is back for the Bolts, and he's up to his old tricks. The perennial Vezina candidate is a brick wall at home. He's 3-1 with a 1.26 GAA at home this season, and he was 20-8 with a 2.57 GAA at home last year. He's 61-19 at home since 2020. The Knights have been forced to start third string goalie Jiri Patera due to injuries to Adin Hill and Logan Thompson.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on UNC.

I will stop short of calling the Oklahoma Sooners a fraud, but I will caution not to read too much into a perfect 10-0 record. Keep in mind strength of schedule, and while they have beaten four Power Five teams, but Iowa, USC, Providence and Arkansas have all underachieved so far. The Tar Heels come off back to back losses to Kentucky and Connecticut, both of those teams look like legit contenders. I think Oklahoma gets exposed here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on PHI.

What happened to the 10-1 Eagles? They are now the 10-3 Eagles after losing back to back blowouts versus San Francisco and Dallas. The good news is that they aren't playing the Niners or the Cowboys this week, and this looks like a potential "GET RIGHT" game for Philly. The Seahawks have lost four of their last five overall, and Geno Smith is banged up. Drew Lock came in and threw for 269 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs in the loss at San Francisco last Sunday. Lock has thrown as many picks (20) as he has TDs over his last three seasons. Smith has a groin injury that normally requires at least two weeks to heal, so even if he can play he would likely be limited.

**UPDATE** - so we are now less than 18 hrs from kickoff and we still have no clarification on Geno Smith, and breaking news that Jalen Hurts might not play due to illness. If it is Marcus Mariotta, note that his last game at Seattle he threw for 229 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT on 13-of-20 passing in a win with the Falcons last year. He also scored a rushing TD in the win. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Bills.

The Cowboys are flying high, winners of five straight. Four of those five wins came at home, and the one road game was at Carolina. They caught the Eagles in a tough spot, but this looks like a let down spot in an outdoor game in December in Buffalo. The Bills need this win to keep their playoff hopes alive, and they are 5-1 at home. The Cowboys are just 3-3 on the road, and all three of their road wins came versus teams with a losing record.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

The Jets lost by a score of 2-1 in San Jose last night, and they come limping into LA without their leading scorer Kyle Connor. The good news is that perennial Vezina candidate Connor Hellebuyck will be back between the pipes tonight. While he ranks in the Top 10 in GAA, Cam Talbot ranks 2nd in the NHL with a 1.91 GAA. Special teams could help both netminders, as both these teams have elite penalty killing units, and neither team is that great on the power play. The under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings, and three of the last four in LA have gone under the number.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on DAL.

The Eagles had been getting it done with smoke and mirrors for weeks, but the bubble burst in a home loss to San Francisco on Sunday. Now they head to Dallas to face a well rested Cowboys team that has been firing on all cylinders. Dak Prescott has averaged well over 300 yards per passing per game over his last five. The Eagles rank 30th in the NFL against the pass, allowing over 260 yards per game. This is a mismatch, and a bad spot for the Eagles.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

Last year Seton Hall beat Rutgers in New Jersey by a score of 45-43, and while that game may look like anomaly, low scoring games have been the norm when these teams play. The under is 7-1 in the last eight head to head meetings. Rutgers has gone under in seven of their last eight overall, and the under is 5-1 in their last six road games. The Pirates are 5-0 at home, and they have held opponents to 62 points per game. This one should be a defensive battle.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on ARI.

The Caps are playing their third game of a road trip at Arizona, and the Coyotes have won three straight home games. While these teams may have similar records, Arizona ranks far superior in goal differential as well as special teams. The Coyotes are converting on better than 25 percent of their power play opportunities, while the Caps are scoring on less than nine percent of their power play chances. The Caps #1 goaltender missed the last game due to an illness, and he's questionable tonight.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on SF.

A rematch of last year's NFC Championship Game is also a revenge game for the Niners. The Eagles have already avenged their Super Bowl loss, and they have a string of wins in tight games that could have gone the other way. What goes around comes around, and this time I expect San Francisco to execute their revenge. They come in with extra rest, and a healthier team. The Eagles win over the Bills on Sunday appears a bit lucky, getting out-gained 505-378, with fewer first downs and less time of possession. I don't think the Eagles get away with that here in what looks like a let down spot against the Niners.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Tulane.

The Green Wave and the SMU Mustangs are ranked #1 and #2 in total defense in the American. Tulane only lost one game this season, and that was against Ole Miss without their starting QB in a game that was closer that the score would indicate. They held UTSA to just 16 points in their final game of the regular season, and they allowed just eight against FAU the week before. The Mustangs have lost starting QB Preston Stone for the remainder of the season, and that's going to put them at a major disadvantage here.

GL,

Jesse Schule