Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-04-22 | Lakers v. Wizards -2.5 | 130-119 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
The Lakers have played decent ball of late winning 7 of their L/9 including an upset of the Milwaukee Bucks last time out. Now though in an emotional letdown spot the Lakers are vulnerable to a side that has played their best hoops at home this season as is evident by winning 8 of 12 tilts as hosts. LA LAKERS are 2-11 ATS after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. LA LAKERS are 15-28 ATS (after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons. Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. NBA team (WASHINGTON) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points are 35-9 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Lakers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Washington. Play on Washington to cover |
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12-03-22 | Bucks -6 v. Hornets | 105-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
The Bucks were upset by the Lakers last time out, but wil now be in bounce back mode and here and ready for redemption vs a Charlotte side that has lost 12 of their L/16 games overall and are sub .500 home side as is evident by a 4-6 record as hosts. MILWAUKEE is 23-10 ATS as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons with the average pgg diff clicking in at +8.5. Budenholzer is 55-34 ATS off a upset loss as a favorite as the coach of MILWAUKEE with the average ppg diff clicking in at +8.4. MILWAUKEE is 9-1 ATS in road games versus poor 3 point shooting teams - making 33% or less of their attempts over the last 2 seasons. NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 31-6 ATS L/26 seasons for a 86'% conversion rate. Play on Milwaukee to cover |
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12-03-22 | Kings v. Clippers -1.5 | 123-96 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Whether George or Leonard take to the court for the Clippers Im betting they still hold an advantage here at home. This Clippers side is constantly being under rated and underestimated when their super stars are out of the lineup but they have still proven resilient on many occasions thanks to team chemistry and top tier coaching and overall work ethic. Yes, the Kings have played great ball at times this season, but are still inconsistent as is evident by losing 3 of their L/4 . NBA Home teams vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) - excellent shooting team (47% or better) against an sub par defensive team (47% or better), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO's) are 36-4 L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.7 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SACRAMENTO) - explosive offensive team - scoring 118+ points/game on the season, first half of the season are n13-33 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on LA Clippers to cover |
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12-02-22 | Bulls v. Warriors -7 | 111-119 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show | |
This will be the Bulls 5th straight road game, and now on tired legs are vulnerable to being beat up on by the explosive Golden State Warriors. Meanwhile, Golden state is 9-1 SU at home this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at 11 points, so the lines-makers are not asking to much here with the favorite. The two most recent meetings in this series saw the Warriors win by margins of 44 points and 26 points. Bulls are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings. CHICAGO is 5-15 ATS in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. Kerr is 20-8 ATS after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 5 or more as the coach of GOLDEN STATE.Kerr is 33-19 ATS in home games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) as the coach of GOLDEN STATE.GOLDEN STATE is 21-8 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Play on Golden State Warriors to cover |
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12-02-22 | Nuggets -1.5 v. Hawks | 109-117 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
Denver has won 4 straight games with the last 3 victories coming by DDs and are currently playing at a very high level and deserve respect here as short road favs. Meanwhile, Atlanta has lost 3 of their L/4 and 4 of their L/6 and have failed to cover 6 of their L/8 tilts overall. I know the Hawks won their last time out, but that was against very inconsistent Orlando side. Note: Home underdogs vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half (which was the case vs the Magic) are just 38-118 SU L/26 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at -5 easily qualifying on this ATS offering. Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Hawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. ATLANTA is 12-24 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts over the last 2 seasons. ATLANTA is 0-8 ATS in home games in December games over the last 3 seasons. Play on Denver to cover |
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12-01-22 | Mavs v. Pistons OVER 221.5 | 125-131 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
With top player Cade Cunningham sidelined due to a shin injury, the Pistons are finding it difficult to stay competitive, and tonight the Mavericks knowing how vulnerable their opponents are will be very aggressive especially on offense. This Im betting leads to a fairly wide open affair, that easily eclipses this total. Note: Detroit ranks 29th in the league in ppg allowed defense and 29th in defensive efficiency. Over is 12-5 in Mavericks last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. DETROIT is 13-4 OVER in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 228.9 ppg scored. Over is 8-3-1 in Pistons last 12 home games. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DETROIT) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against a good defensive team (104-108 PPG), after allowing 130 points or more are 45-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate with a combined average score of 234.5 ppg going on the scoreboard. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (DALLAS) - after one or more consecutive overs, a good defensive team (104-108 PPG) against a poor defensive team (114-118 PPG).are 72-34 L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at 230.4 ppg. Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Detroit. Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Play over |
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11-30-22 | Clippers v. Jazz OVER 225.5 | 112-125 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
My owns projections estimate a combined score of 227 plus points , which gives us value on this offering .Utah averages 116.7 (4th of 30) while allowing 115.5 (22nd of 30). Meanwhile, the Clippers are essentially on the other side of the spectrum offensively and defensively, but as they showed us last night are reving up offensively and off a 118 output while allowing 112 points in a victory vs the Blazers. On tired legs tonight the Clippers in the high altitudes of Salt Lake City wont have the energy needed to play strong D, and this Im betting helps this combined score eclipse this offering. Over is 5-1-1 in Clippers last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Over is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (UTAH) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or better of their shots are 31-5 OVER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 235.8 ppg scored. NBAl teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (UTAH) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or more of their shots are 22-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average with a combined average of 239.9 ppg scored. Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings. Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Utah. Play OVER |
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11-30-22 | Bucks -5 v. Knicks | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
The Knicks took down the Pistons, last night but now on tired legs as they now play back-to-back set vs the Milwaukee Bucks . This wont be as easy a task as playing a short handed squad yesterday. . The /bucks are currently in top form and off strong wins vs the Cavaliers and Mavericks and Im betting the magick of 3 is in play tonight. NEW YORK is 1-9 ATS in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. NEW YORK is 5-21 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. NEW YORK is 5-17 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Thibodeau is 2-11 ATS in home games in November games as the coach of NEW YORK. MILWAUKEE is 9-1 ATS in road games versus poor 3 point shooting teams - making 33% or less of their attempts over the last 2 seasons. NBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW YORK) - after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game are 6-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Milwaukee to win/cover |
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11-29-22 | Warriors v. Mavs +2 | 113-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
Since they last met in June, the Mavericks have had this rematch circled on their calendars. I know the Mavericks are currently not playing at the same level as the Warriors , but Im betting with revenge on their minds and redemption as a goal , here on their own home floor they deserve respect having won 8 of 11 tilts this season . It must also be noted that the Warriors despite of their strong play have had problems on the road and have only garnered wins in their L/11 road games. GOLDEN STATE is 24-38 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons. Warriors are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Warriors are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Warriors are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Dallas. Play on Dallas Mavericks to cover |
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11-28-22 | Bulls v. Jazz -1.5 | 114-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
After a fast start to their season Utah has really cooled off but this is a good matchup for them here at home vs a Chicago Bulls side that has been highly inconsistent this season. The Jazz are off a heart breaking loss to the Suns on the road but proved their the really deal and here in the friendly confines of Vivint Arena where they are 6-2 SU have na edge. Jazz are also 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. CHICAGO is 20-34 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons. CHICAGO is 4-14 ATS in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (UTAH) - excellent shooting team (47% or more) against an terrible defensive team (47% or more ), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO's) are 35-3 L/5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road underdogs (CHICAGO) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 7-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Utah to cover |
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11-27-22 | Pacers v. Clippers +1.5 | 100-114 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
Indiana has been playing some viable basketball this season, while the Clippers have been inconsistent and on a 2 game losing run. However, its been a long standing mistake many pundits make under estimating the Clippers abilities even when Leonard and George are sidelined.Im betting on the Clippers undervalued depth and grit to triump here and get is the cover. Lue is 32-17 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 as the coach of LA CLIPPERS. NBA Road favorites (INDIANA) - off a home win by 10 points or more, on Sunday games are 9-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. Pacers are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Play on LA Clippers to cover |
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11-27-22 | Warriors v. Wolves +2 | 137-114 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
The Warriors against the Timberwolves in last seasons meetings , won by an average of 11 points in two home games, but lost by an average of 17.5 in two visits to Minnesota.Karl-Anthony Towns was key on the home wins for the Wolves garnering 26 points and 11 rebounds to a 119-99 romp in January, then 39 points and nine rebounds to a 129-114 triumph in March. Rinse and repeat pattern on board here with the line favoring the Wolves. GOLDEN STATE is 1-9 ATS in road games this season. GOLDEN STATE is 11-24 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. NBA Road favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - off a home win by 10 points or more, on Sunday games are 9-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MINNESOTA) - after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 55-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Minnesota Wolves to cover |
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11-26-22 | Lakers -2.5 v. Spurs | 143-138 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
After watching these teams play last night Im betting there is value on taking the road team to grab their 2nd straight win in this series. Matchup discrepancies were obvious favoring the Lakers. Injury updates: [SF] LeBron James (Adductor) - Probable [11/21/2022] James is battling an adductor injury but will take the court for the Lakers. [C] Anthony Davis (Back) - Probable [11/19/2022] Davis is dealing with a back injury and is expected to take the court for the Lakers. NBA Favorites vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 3 straight losses by 10 points or more are 38-3 L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate! Play on the LA Lakers to win /cover |
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11-25-22 | Lakers v. Spurs +5.5 | 105-94 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 43 m | Show | |
Things are bad in San Antonio land of late , but dont be surprised if the Spurs put up a valiant effort here vs a Lakers side that seems to over look losing sides when on the road. Note: Lakers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Lakers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games. Popovich is 29-15 ATS after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more as the coach of SAN ANTONIO. NBA team (SAN ANTONIO) - struggling defensive team - shooting pct defense of 50% or worse on the season, averaging 48 or less rebounds/game on the season are 33-9 ATS L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. NBA Home teams (SAN ANTONIO) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against a poor 3PT shooting team (33% or less), poor ball handling team (16.5 or more TO's) against an average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) are 103-47 ATS L/26 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. |
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11-25-22 | Kings v. Celtics UNDER 237.5 | 104-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
My own projections estimate a combined score of 230 . Thus we have value with taking the under in this public centric Totals offering. Under is 5-1 in Kings last 6 games following a ATS loss.Under is 5-1 in Kings last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 7-3 in Celtics last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. SACRAMENTO is 27-12 UNDER in road games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 225.1 ppg scored.SACRAMENTO is 34-16 UNDER off a road loss over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 224.1 ppg . NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 70-36 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 66% conversion rate. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 42-16 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 73% conversion rate. NBA team (BOSTON) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games are 127-72 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate. Under is 17-5 in the last 22 meetings in Boston. Play on the UNDER |
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11-25-22 | Kings v. Celtics -8 | 104-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
The Kings are off a 115-106 loss at Atlanta on Wednesday that ended a seven-game winning run and now Im betting they suffer a 2nd straight loss and also fail to cover vs an explosive Boston side that has won 10 of their L/12 behind the leagues top duo of Tatum and Brown.BOSTON is 23-11 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.4. Note:The Kings have played just six games so far against elite teams with winning records, and own a sub par 2-4 record. NBA Home favorites SU (BOSTON) - an excellent offensive team (118 or more PPG) against a sub par defensive team (114-118 PPG) are 27-1 L/28 opportunities with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12.1 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. Play on the Boston Celtics to cover |
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11-23-22 | Bulls v. Bucks -7 | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
Milwaukee has won 6 of the L/7 meetings vs Chicago and 5 of those wins have come by DDs with the smallest margin of victory coming by 7 points which is what we are being asked to coincidently cover here by backing the Bucks tongiht. From a power ranking and SRS perspective we actually have value backing the home side here. I know the Bulls are off an impressive win vs Boston last time out, but now Im betting a letdown scenario taking hold and for the Bucks not to be caught looking ahead and primed to crush a division competitor. Milwaukee ranks 7th in the league with a 3.28 mark and Chicago ranks 12th with a 1.37. Adding in my own power ranking adjustments this line should be closer to -9 giving us enough room for a full possession cover. There -6 available. SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average Budenholzer is 49-20 ATS vs. division opponents as the coach of MILWAUKEE with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13. CHICAGO is 39-56 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons NBA Road underdogs (CHICAGO) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average shooting team (43.5-45.5%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO's) are 13-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Milwaukee to cover |
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11-22-22 | Kings v. Grizzlies +2 | 113-109 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
After a slow start to their season Sacramento has peeled off 6 straight wins, while their opponents tonight Memphis has shown flashes of brilliance and unexpected collapses like they suffered last time out where they fell apart in the 4th quarter vs Brooklyn losing by a 127-115 count on the road as 8 point dogs. That was the Grizzlies 3rd straight road loss. However at home the Grizzlies have played their best hoops winning 6 of 7 overall with the lone loss coming the Boston Celtics by a 109-106 count. With that said Im betting on home court advantage for the Grizzlies being the difference maker. MEMPHIS is 7-0 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons and 3-0 L/3 at home in this series. MEMPHIS is 13-1 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. MEMPHIS is 20-5 ATS against Pacific division opponents over the last 2 seasons. MEMPHIS is 12-1 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. MEMPHIS is 8-0 ATS after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. MEMPHIS is 12-2 ATS in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts over the last 2 seasons. MEMPHIS is 17-7 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SACRAMENTO) - explosive offensive team - scoring 118+ points/game on the season, first half of the season are 12-32 ATS L/26 seasons for a 73% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Memphis to cover |
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11-21-22 | Jazz v. Clippers -3 | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
The Clippers have won five of seven since they lost to Utah earlier this season and with Kawhi Leonard back in the rotation they are strong candidates to get revenge here and notch a win. UTAH is 3-19 ATS after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
NBA Home teams vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) - excellent shooting team (47% or more) against an terrible defensive team (47% or more ), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO's) are 33-3 L/5 seasons for a 91% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.4! NBA Road teams (UTAH) - good offensive team - scoring 114+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 100 points or less 2 straight games are 13-41 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% go against conversion rate. Jazz are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles. Play on LA Clippers to cover |
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11-21-22 | Knicks +2.5 v. Thunder | 129-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
After winning the first two games on their current road trip, the Knicks have dropped back-to-back games and are ready for a bounce back effort vs a Oklahoma City side that my power ranking suggest they matchup well against. Note: NEW YORK is 18-6 ATS L/24 in road games off 2 consecutive road losses by 10 points or more . NEW YORK is 38-18 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. OKLAHOMA CITY is 0-8 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 3 seasons. NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW YORK) - after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 41-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate! Play on NY Knicks to cover |
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11-20-22 | Grizzlies +7.5 v. Nets | 115-127 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
Memphis snapped a losing streak by earning a 121-110 win over the visiting Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday when Jaren Jackson Jr. scored 25 in his second game back from right foot surgery and Im betting despite of Brooklyn playing some strong hoops at this time will be primed and ready compete. BROOKLYN is 7-33 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. BROOKLYN is 9-29 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons. BROOKLYN is 1-13 ATS in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts over the last 2 seasons. MEMPHIS is 32-19 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. MEMPHIS is 5-0 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons MEMPHIS is 5-0 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons and are 2-0 SU/ATS L/2 visits to Brooklyn. Play on Memphis to cover |
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11-19-22 | Wolves v. 76ers +2.5 | 112-109 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
The Philadelphia 76ers Im betting have a great chance at remaining perfect on their five-game home-stand on Saturday, playing the second leg of a back-to-back when they host the Minnesota Timberwolves. This version of the Sixers is well conditioned and I have confidence they will perform at a high level tonight as they carry the momentum of late nights victory over Milwaukee into this tilt against another viable side. I know Maxey may not play tonight for the Sixers but Shake Milton is a fine replacement if that indeed is the case. Also the Wolves are on tired legs as they play their 4th straight road game tonight. Advantage Philly Timberwolves are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Timberwolves are 3-12 ATS in the last 15 meetings.Timberwolves are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Philadelphia. NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in November games are 30-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. Play Philadelphia 76ers to cover |
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11-18-22 | Celtics v. Pelicans +2.5 | 117-109 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
The visiting Celtics are looking for their ninth consecutive victory, while the Pelicans shoot for their fourth consecutive win. From a SRS perspective the Celtics are ranked No.1 with a 6.92 mark while the Pelicans are ranked 4th with a 4.35 . But when factoring in home court obligatory advantage of around 4 points i this game should see the home side favored by -2. But thanks to the the huge brand name respect attached to one of the oldest and most respected NBA franchises we get to take points here with the up-trending home side, which screams value. Note: SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - explosive offensive team - scoring 118+ points/game on the season, first half of the season are 11-32 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games are 30-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on New Orleans to cover |
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11-17-22 | Pistons +9.5 v. Clippers | 91-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
I know the Detroit Pistons have not played well this season, but they will face a inconsistent Los Angeles Clippers, side operating at less than 100% with key injuries .Considering the Clippers propensity under HC Lue to take nights off vs sub standard sides like the young men from Motown it will not be a hard decision to grab points here. Note: Lue is 3-14 ATS in home games when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% or less ) in all games he has coached. DETROIT is 34-19 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. DETROIT is 35-19 ATS off a home loss over the last 3 seasons. DETROIT is 16-6 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 season. NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 25-55 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Detroit to cover |
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11-16-22 | Bulls +4 v. Pelicans | 110-124 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
New Orleans played a physical game last night against Memphis and prob do not have enough proverbial gas left in the tank to compete as needed against a revenge minded Bulls group on a few days rest. These teams just played a few days ago with the Pelicans squeaking out a 115-111 victory. The Bulls than came out in their next game and looked tired and demoralized , and got blasted by Denver in a DD loss. But now with redemption and revenge combo now in play are in my betting opinion solid underdog wagers. CHICAGO is 17-4 ATS after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher over the last 3 seasons. NBA Road teams (CHICAGO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more are 39-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74/5 conversion rate for bettors. Play on Chicago to cover |
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11-15-22 | Spurs +8.5 v. Blazers | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
Portland has won nine of its first 13 games , but according to my specific power rankings should not be this big a favorite vs the Spurs. I know the Spurs are not playing well overall at least from a W/L perspective but do matchup well here according to my head to head player personnel data.PORTLAND is 9-20 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons. PORTLAND is 14-30 ATS versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game over the last 2 seasons. SAN ANTONIO is 9-1 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half over the last 2 seasons.SAN ANTONIO is 23-11 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots over the last 3 seasons. Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Spurs are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Spurs are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Spurs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games. NBA team (SAN ANTONIO) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), poor ball handling team (16.5 or more TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (14.5 or less TO's) are 80-40 ATS L/26 seasons for a 67% conversion rate. Spurs are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Play on San Antonio to cover |
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11-15-22 | Clippers v. Mavs -7 | 101-103 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
Dallas has played their best hoops at home this season winning 5 of their 6 tilts , with the average ppg diff clicking in at just under +8. My power ranking suggest -8 is the correct line here favoring the host thus giving us an edge on this current line offering especially with the visitors playing short handed ie (Kawhi Leonard and John Wall) and now playing back to back nights. Luka Doncic scored at will against the Los Angeles Clippers last season and Im betting he will once be the catalyst in this contest. Note: Doncic scored 96 total points vs the Clippers in two games that were 48 hours apart. Doncic, leads the NBA ins coring averaging 34.3 points per game on 49.6 percent shooting. Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Mavericks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. LA CLIPPERS are 5-21 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons. NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, on Tuesday nights are 9-65 L/5 seasons for a 88% go against conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at -13.8 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, on Tuesday nights are 18-55 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the |
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11-15-22 | Grizzlies +2.5 v. Pelicans | 102-113 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Memphis is off a DD loss last time out at Washington but have proven resilient under those circumstances in bounce back opportunities and have also played well against top tier teams in a groove like the Pelicans. MEMPHIS is 12-0 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. MEMPHIS is 18-7 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.MEMPHIS is 32-15 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile, Pelicans are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and are fade material here laying points against a quality opponent that does not take kindly to having lost last time out. Play on Memphis to cover |
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11-14-22 | Hornets +1.5 v. Magic | 112-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Charlotte is in desperate need of a win after 8 straight losses, and will primed to get a victory and revenge at the same time for a 113-93 loss they suffered to the Magic back on Oct 28th of this season. CHARLOTTE is 19-9 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Hornets are 46-16-2 ATS in their last 64 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. CHARLOTTE is 22-9 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 3 seasons. The Magic have had a long history of crapping the bed vs sub .500 opposition. Magic are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Magic are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.ORLANDO is 25-41 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons NBA team (CHARLOTTE) - off 2 consecutive losses against division rivals, in November games are 88-48 L/26 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home favorites (ORLANDO) - after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 63-107 L/26 seasons for a 63% conversion rate. Play on Charlotte to cover |
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11-14-22 | Raptors v. Pistons +5.5 | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Both Toronto and Detroit are a bit banged up entering this tilt with some nagging injuries through each lineup and key players out.Toronto has lost three of its last four games and four of its last six. Forward Pascal Siakam is out and they look like vulnerable road favs here vs a side they have failed to cover 6 straight times against. I know Motown is not playing all that well , but from a long term perspective DETROIT is 33-19 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. Pistons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. TORONTO is 13-31 ATS L/44 after 2 straight games being called for 5+ less fouls than opponent . Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Play on Detroit to cover |
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11-13-22 | Nuggets v. Bulls +1.5 | 126-103 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
When Zach Lavine is in the lineup and healthy the Bulls are dangerous opponent for all comers. He is expected to play this evening vs Denver, and with the Bulls on 3 days rest the home side will be fresh and ready to perform. Note: Chicago swept the season series from Denver last season behind solid play from LaVine, who averaged 34 points in the two games, and Im betting he will be the difference maker yet again. CHICAGO is 22-9 ATS after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons. DENVER is 18-31 ATS after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons. Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in November games are 30-8 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. Play on Chicago to cover |
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11-12-22 | Jazz v. Wizards +3.5 | 112-121 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Playing without a couple of key players, the Wizards showed positive chemistry en route to a 113-105 victory over the Dallas Mavericks last time out and have the ability with this group to do the same to the visiting Jazz. I know Utah has played exceptionally well despite of key off season departures, but tonight after slugging it out non stop early this season against some strong opponents a letdown could be in order as was the case earlier this season when they lost too the young Houston rockets. . Washington has covered 3 straight and 4 of their L/5 and must not be underestimated as home dogs. Wizards are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Jazz are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 2 days rest. WASHINGTON is 18-4 ATS in home games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. UTAH is 25-44 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game over the last 2 seasons. UTAH is 3-17 ATS after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (UTAH) - explosive offensive team - scoring 118+ points/game on the season, after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 13-33 L/26 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - struggling team - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game, after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games are 46-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Washington to cover |
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11-11-22 | Cavs v. Warriors -1.5 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
After 8 straight wins the Cleveland Cavaliers have now lost 2 straight, and with this being their 5th straight road game Im betting their on tired legs and vulnerable to defeat here again tonight vs a Warriors team that have defeated them in each of the past 10 regular-season meetings in this series. I know Golden State has been erratic to start the season, but still owns an impressive 9-1 ATS in home games in November games over the last 2 seasons and are on extended rest. Warriors are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 3 or more days rest Warriors are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 Friday games.Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Warriors are 27-9-1 ATS in their last 37 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. . Meanwhile,CLEVELAND is just 19-39 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons and their conditioning according to some charts Ive kept on them is suspect.CLEVELAND is also 18-37 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - after allowing 68 points or more in the first half last game against opponent after a close win by 3 points or less are 18-52 L/26 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Golden State to cover |
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11-11-22 | Bucks v. Spurs OVER 220.5 | 93-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
My own projections make this total closer to 223 giving us a full possession value on a over wager. (The Bucks are the 2nd best ppg defensive team in the league at the moment while the Spurs are the worst). Im betting the Spurs here on their own home court behind a 5th ranked pace try to get the Bucks out of their comfort zone and turn this game in to a more wide open affair. This Im betting results in this total being eclipsed. Both these sides have a hsitroy of higher scoring non conference affairs. SAN ANTONIO is 16-6 OVER in home games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 222.9 ppg scored. SAN ANTONIO is 41-23 OVER in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 229.2 ppg going on the score board. Budenholzer is 27-14 OVER against Southwest division opponents as the coach of MILWAUKEE with a combined average of 235.3 ppg scored. MILWAUKEE is 45-25 OVER in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 234.1 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - after a game where both teams scored 120 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 265 points or more are 23-2 OVER L/26 seasons for a 92% conversion rate. with a combined average of 235.2 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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11-11-22 | Nuggets v. Celtics UNDER 231.5 | 112-131 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Boston brings a 21st ranked pace into this tilt against the Nuggets. The Celtics FG conversion rate has been above average to start the season, and thats why in part their output has been near the top of the league, but regression should start to rare its ugly head at some point, and according my projections based on their expected offensive production dip in this tilt, this totals offering is a tad high and should be closer to 228-- giving us value on the under. Under is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. BOSTON is 37-23 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 213.7 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 35-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 40-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 23-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 92% conversion rate. Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings. Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Boston. Play UNDER |
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11-10-22 | 76ers v. Hawks -1.5 | 95-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
Atlantas Trae Young had a ugly outing last night, but Im betting now with the rust off after a injury lay off he will be in rebound mode tonight. This is a well conditioned Hawks team that my own power rankings suggest matchup well vs the Sixers. It will be Atlanta's second back-to-back of the season. The Hawks split the first one on the road, beating Detroit and losing to top tier Milwaukee which can be forgiven. 76ers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.76ers are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 road games. Hawks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Hawks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.Hawks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss. ATLANTA is 47-31 ATS in home games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game over the last 3 seasons. ATLANTA is 44-28 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 3 seasons. NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog, in November games are 3-33 L/5 seasons for a go against 91% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Atlanta Hawks to cover |
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11-09-22 | Pelicans v. Bulls +2 | 115-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
Chicagos super star Zach Lavine despite of some nagging injuries is expected to play tonight against visiting New Orleans . With him in the lineup, the Bulls offense will be alot more balanced and thanks to improved defensive play this season, the Bulls look like viable bets here on their own home court.Green is 2-11 ATS in road games in November games as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.Donovan is 32-18 ATS in the first half of the season as the coach of CHICAGO. Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Pelicans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Bulls are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. NBAl teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) - explosive offensive team - scoring 118+ points/game on the season, first half of the season are 9-32 ATS 26 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (NEW ORLEANS) - explosive offensive team - scoring 118+ points/game on the season, first half of the season is 8-33 L/26 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Chicago to cover |
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11-09-22 | Knicks v. Nets -135 | 85-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
The Knicks hit a season-high 19 3-pointers in a victory at Minnesota on Monday and now regression is on the agenda . Thats fortunate for a Brooklyn side that struggled against downtown shooting. Meanwhile, the Nets have won 3 of their L/5 and have shown upward momentum and competitiveness as was the case in a loss last time out to Dallas by a 96-94 count. I like their chances here vs a NYK side they dominated from a SU perspective in recent seasons. NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (BROOKLYN) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in November games are 31-6 L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (NEW YORK) - poor defensive team - allowing 114+ points/game on the season against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games are 3-22 L/5 seasons for ago against 88% conversion rate for bettors. BROOKLYN is 7-0 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons and 4-0 L/4 at home in this series. Play on the Moneyline - Brooklyn Nets |
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11-07-22 | Celtics v. Grizzlies UNDER 231.5 | 109-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
I know both these sides can pour down points, but when need be both are solid defensively as well in this battle of top tier sides, Im betting on a more physical type of tilt that will result in a slower pace than the pundits and lines-makers expect based on overall data. the Celtics own the 21 ranked pace in the NBA while Memphis ranks 14th. MEMPHIS is 24-13 UNDER versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 222.7 ppg scored. BOSTON is 41-23 UNDER in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival with a combined average of 194.5 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS/BOSTON) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 39-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 23-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 92% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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11-07-22 | Celtics v. Grizzlies +3.5 | 109-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
Two top tier teams, play tonight as Boston visits Memphis. Im betting home court advantage with a team that went 30-11 SU as hosts last season and are already 3-0 straight up at home this season offers up value . Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Celtics are 19-40-2 ATS in their last 61 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. MEMPHIS is 11-1 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.MEMPHIS is 33-17 ATS in home games over the last 2 seasons. Jenkins is 101-75 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game as the coach of MEMPHIS. MEMPHIS is 11-2 ATS in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.MEMPHIS is 17-7 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. MEMPHIS is 30-12 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MEMPHIS) - an excellent offensive team (118 or more PPG) against a poor defensive team (114-118 PPG) are 27-4 L/26 seasons for a 86% conversion rate. Take the points with Memphis to cover |
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11-07-22 | Rockets v. Magic -4.5 | 134-127 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Orlando has played well at home this season beating Charlotte and Golden state and playing closely contested tilts vs Boston and Sacramento. Meanwhile, Houston has lost 6 straight, with 5 of the 6 losses by 8 or more points and 9 of their L/10 games overall this season, and all 7 road tilts they have played. Advantage to Magic. HOUSTON is 14-27 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.HOUSTON is 21-48 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons NBA Home teams vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - excellent shooting team (47% or more ) against a terrible defensive team ( 47% or more ), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO's). are 30-2 L/5 seasons for a 94% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.1 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. NBA Home teams (ORLANDO) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in two consecutive games against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 22-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Orlando to cover |
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11-06-22 | Jazz v. Clippers -4 | 110-102 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
The Jazz have played alot better hoops than many had expected after some departures in the off season. However its still early, and Ive noticed the Jazz have played a lot of run and gun hoops on a heavy schedule, so they are on tired legs and vulnerable entering this tilt vs a Clippers side that has won 3 straight games behind a solid D. With that said, Im recommending we ride the momentum of the Clippers at Staples today. UTAH is 8-18 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons. UTAH is 9-21 ATS after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 season. UTAH is 15-31 ATS after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons. Jazz are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Jazz are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 road games.Jazz are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Jazz are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (UTAH) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog, in November games are 2-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 94% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at -11.4 which easily qualifies on this ATS line. Jazz are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles. Play on the LA Clippers to cover |
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11-05-22 | Pelicans v. Hawks UNDER 233 | 121-124 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
The New Orleans Pelicans and Atlanta Hawks go head to head Saturday in NBA action at the State Farm Arena. Both of these teams have been taking part in some high scoring events, but my projections tell me that is offered total is a little over blown considering the Pelicans played last night and are on tired legs. The Hawks are much fresher, but Im betting the Pelicans try to slow this game down to a manageable tempo which will in turn help us stay under this offered number. Under is 5-2 in Pelicans last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.Under is 5-0 in Pelicans last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record NEW ORLEANS is 17-6 UNDER in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.3 ppg scored. NEW ORLEANS is 17-2 UNDER as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.3 ppg going on the board. ATLANTA is 14-4 UNDER in home games versus good rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.3 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (ATLANTA) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 35-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 90% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 26-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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11-05-22 | Pelicans v. Hawks -2 | 121-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
New Orleans played last night in a win vs Golden State and will now be on tired legs against a well rested Atlanta Hawks side that is built to take on bigger teams like the Pelicans. ATLANTA is 29-15 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 3 seasons. Pelicans are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Pelicans are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Pelicans are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 32-10 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. Pelicans are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 Saturday games. Pelicans are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Play on Atlanta to cover |
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11-05-22 | Celtics v. Knicks +4.5 | 133-118 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
Last time out -The Knicks came back from a 12-point deficit , in the fourth-quarter Friday to edge the host Philadelphia 76ers 106-104. The Celtics are off a hard fought victory Chicago Bulls to take a 123-119 event. Both teams are now ion tired legs, but the Knicks under HC Thibodeau has proved themselves to well conditioned. Note: Thibodeau is 18-7 ATS when playing on back-to-back days as the coach of NEW YORK. Knicks are also 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games playing on 0 days rest. Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win. Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. BOSTON is 14-30 ATS versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 10-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. The Knicks have won the L/3 meetings SU at home in this series. Play on the Knicks to cover |
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11-05-22 | Nets v. Hornets +5.5 | 98-94 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Brooklyn is off a much needed win last time out playing a complete game vs the Washington Wizards. by a 128-86 count. But now Im betting on regression, vs a Charlotte side that is desperate for some positive results after 3 straight losses.Note: BROOKLYN is 9-25 ATS (after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons.Udoka is 1-14 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game in all games he has coached. BROOKLYN is 10-26 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.BROOKLYN is 18-43 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.BROOKLYN is 17-30 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. NBA Underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - after scoring 105 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 68 points or more in the first half last game are 27-17 L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate. Im not recommending we make this a ML bet, but giving an example of a possible outright upset that makes taking points a very viable option. Play on Charlotte to cover |
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11-04-22 | Warriors v. Pelicans -4 | 105-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
Golden State took part in a back and forth event last night with the Orlando Magic losing 130-129 and are now on tired legs headed into this tilt against Zion Williamson and company and at a disadvantage after losing 4 straight games, thanks to a shoddy D, that ranks last in the league in ppg allowed (122.2). Im betting on the Pelicans who will be prepared as hosts to take advantage of an opponents not operating on all cylinders.GOLDEN STATE is 5-16 ATS in road games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. GOLDEN STATE is 22-34 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons.GOLDEN STATE is 11-22 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - explosive offensive team - scoring 118+ points/game on the season, after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 11-32 L/26 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at -4.2. Play on New Orleans to cover |
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11-03-22 | Warriors v. Magic UNDER 227 | 129-130 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
Orlando ranks 29th in offensive output, and 12th in ppg allowed and rank 18th in pace. Meanwhile, Golden state is almost the complete opposite, running and gunning behind a fast paced attack. The clashes of these opposites bodes well however, according to my projections for seeing a combined score that fails to eclipse this number. The Magic dont have the overall talent or system to push back hard on the Warriors, and the visitors Im betting after a grueling start to their campaign may treat this like a defacto game off and make a it a more pleasure orientated trip to Disney. Grinder on board. GOLDEN STATE is 15-5 UNDER in road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.5 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE L/12 road games against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 222.7 ppg scored. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (ORLANDO) - after having lost 2 of their last 3 games, a terrible team (25% or worse) playing a team with a losing record are 65-35 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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11-02-22 | Jazz v. Mavs -5.5 | 100-103 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
Utah despite of supposedly being in a rebuilding or remodeling mode have played well this season. However, now with opponents aware of the Jazz grit and top tier play to begin the season will now have zero surprise factor working for them, and will face a Dallas side prepared to play them. Also after falling asleep at the wheel in a loss vs the Orlando Magic last time out the Mavericks will be primed for a bounce back effort. Jazz are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 road games.Jazz are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 1 days rest.Jazz are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Mavericks are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 home games.Mavericks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest. NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (UTAH) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog, in November games are 2-31 L/5 seasons for a 94% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at -11.7 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. NBA team (UTAH) - in a game involving two average free throw shooting teams (72-76%), after a game making 19 or more 3 point shots are 7-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Dallas is 5-1 SU/ATS L/6 at home in this series vs Utah. Play on Dallas to cover |
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11-02-22 | Clippers v. Rockets UNDER 222 | 109-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
Houston continues to be inconsistent offensively and tonight against a banged up Clippers side, Im betting this total will not be eclipsed as both teams flow issues lean towards a lower scoring affair. LA CLIPPERS are 9-1 UNDER in road games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 203.8 ppg scored. LA CLIPPERS are 12-3 UNDER as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.4 ppg.
NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA CLIPPERS/HOUSTON) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game are 30-5 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with a combined average of 212.1 ppg scored. Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Houston. Play on the UNDER |
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11-02-22 | Pistons +11.5 v. Bucks | 91-116 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
Milwaukee pulled off a 110-108 win in the first game of this 2 game set in Wisconsin with the visiting Detroit Pistons. The Pistons showed alot of fight and grit in that above mentioned tilt and Im betting they're not going down without a fight tonight. Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Pistons are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record DETROIT is 30-13 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. DETROIT is 29-16 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less points/game over the last 2 seasons. NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (MILWAUKEE) - team that had a winning record last season, after 4 or more consecutive wins are 8-29 ATS L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. NBA team vs the money line (DETROIT) - off a loss against a division rival against opponent off a close win by 3 points or less over a division rival are 22-6 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover |
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11-01-22 | Wolves +5.5 v. Suns | 107-116 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 21 m | Show | |
The Minnesota Timberwolves (4-3) head to The Valley on Tuesday night to take on the Phoenix Suns (5-1) at Footprint Center.
Williams is 15-34 ATS in home games after a blowout win by 15 points or more in all games he has coached MINNESOTA is 27-15 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 2 seasons. NBA Favorites (PHOENIX) - after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite, good team from last season who won 60% to 75% of their games are 6-25 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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10-31-22 | Grizzlies v. Jazz UNDER 235 | 105-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
The Jazz grabbed a 124-123 win vs Memphis last time out , and once again face the Grizzlies for the second time in three nights Monday in Salt Lake City. Memphis shot 56.8 percent, but Utah countered by hitting 51.7 percent of its shots. It was a wide open event, but now Im betting on offensive regression. Previous to the Jazz last tilt they saw 3 straight unders, and Im betting on this combined score failing to eclipse this offering. UTAH is 24-13 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.4 ppg. Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 home games. Under is 19-7-1 in Jazz last 27 games following a straight up win. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 26-3 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). are 25-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for 83% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 52-19 UNDER L/26 for a 73% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 93-37 L/26 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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10-30-22 | Wolves v. Spurs UNDER 235.5 | 98-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
The teams spilt the two previous contests in Minneapolis, with the Spurs winning 115-106 on Monday and Minnesota getting the job done in a 134-122 victory on Wednesday. Im now betting on regression from a offensive perspective here in game 3 after the last explosion and for this combined score to more closely mimic the first meeting. Note: Minnesota enters after a 111-102 win at home over the Los Angeles Lakers on Friday with their D being the big difference maker and nothing changes here today as this looks to be a recipe for success. SAN ANTONIO is 13-3 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.3 ppg scored. Under is 5-1 in Timberwolves last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 25-3 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. Play on UNDER |
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10-30-22 | Wolves v. Spurs +6 | 98-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
These teams spilt the two previous contests in Minneapolis, with the Spurs winning 115-106 on Monday and Minnesota prevailing 134-122 on Wednesday. With that said, I run here with a regular season zig zag theory and support and recommend we bet the upstart Spurs at home with crowd advantage on their side. Timberwolves are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win. Spurs are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Spurs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Spurs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.Spurs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Spurs are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.Spurs are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win. Spurs are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.Spurs are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Road favorites (MINNESOTA) - off 2 or more consecutive home wins, on Sunday games are 7-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% go against conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (SAN ANTONIO) - an excellent offensive team (118 or more PPG) against a poor defensive team (114-118 PPG) are 26-4 L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. Play on San Antonio to cover |
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10-30-22 | Warriors v. Pistons UNDER 230.5 | 114-128 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
I know both sides have played some fast paced wide open affairs, but both sides are openly speaking about playing better D. Based on my projections this line should be closer to 227 thus giving us value with a full possession edge on an under wager. GOLDEN STATE is 15-5 UNDER against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.5 ppg scored.GOLDEN STATE is 14-4 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 226.1 ppg scored.
Under is 35-16-1 in Warriors last 52 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Under is 5-1-1 in Warriors last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. DETROIT is 18-4 UNDER L/22 after allowing 130 points or more with a combined average of 207.6 ppg scored. Under is 6-1 in Pistons last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (GOLDEN STATE) - terrible defensive team - allowing 118+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 23-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DETROIT) - in a game involving two horrible defensive teams (118 or more PPG are 34-12 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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10-29-22 | Hawks v. Bucks -4.5 | 115-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
The Bucks are a solid defensive side ranking 1st in the NBA in ppg allowed . The Bucks have become very physical in nature, and Im betting they matchup well here vs a run and gun offensive structure that Atlanta utilizes. ATLANTA is 5-20 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +7.7. ATLANTA is 4-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. McMillan is 9-22 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less points/game as the coach of ATLANTA. NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - good free throw shooting team from last season - made 76% or better of their free throws, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 25-2 L/26 seasons for a 93% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12.1 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - good 3 point shooting team from last season - made 36% or better of their attempts, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 23-4 L/26 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.7 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. Milwaukee is 4-1 SU/ATS L/5 at home in this series. Play on Milwaukee to cover |
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10-28-22 | Rockets +5.5 v. Blazers | 111-125 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
Damian Lillard averaged 33.3 points during the Trail Blazers' 4-0 start, shooting 50 percent overall and 40 percent on 3-pointers while playing 37.1 minutes per game. He was injured last time out in the Blazers first loss of the season. He is a key cog for this teams offensive flow and Im betting it effects them here tonight vs a young under rated Houston team that almost always plays a all out brand of hoops on young legs. Houston has covered their L/4 trips to Portland and get the nod again tonight. Rockets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games dating back to last season, and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. PORTLAND is 18-36 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasonsTrail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Trail Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. Play on Rockets to cover |
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10-28-22 | 76ers +1.5 v. Raptors | 112-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
The 76ers lost the first game in this 2 tilt set in Toronto on Wednesday, but now I expect the Philadelphia 76ers to answer back in the rematch on Friday night. Philadelphia are going to make adjustments. It's almost like the playoffs, where you do something in Game 1, and the other side adjust to it. I know the 76ers have struggled so far , but its early and they are more than capable behind Doc. Rivers tutelage of a bounce back beginning here tonight vs the Raptors. Note: TORONTO is 0-9 ATS in home games versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival are 23-9 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Philadelphia to cover |
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10-28-22 | Pacers v. Wizards -4.5 | 127-117 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Washington (3-1) matches up well against Indiana as was the case in their opening game of the season winning by. a 114-107 count as road dogs. With Indiana (1-4) playing horrendous D, early on this season ranking dead last in the league in ppg allowed ( 122 ppg) they are fade material. INDIANA is 4-14 ATS against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -6.4. INDIANA is 2-11 ATS versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots over the last 3 seasons. NBA team vs the money line (WASHINGTON) - excellent defensive team (42% or less) against a struggling defensive team (47% or more ) are 30-4 L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.7 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. Washington is 5-0 SU/ATS L/5 meetings in D.C. Play on Washington to cover |
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10-27-22 | Clippers v. Thunder UNDER 218 | 110-118 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
The Clippers have gone under in 4 straight games to begin their season, rNKING DEAD LAST IN OFFENSIVE out , and 17th in pace and ranking 8th in ppg allowed and 6th in defensive rating. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City has gone under in 3 of their L/4 overall with a 22nd ranked offensive output despite of a fast pace. The Clippers will be out to slow down the Thunder especially after taking ti on the chin vs Thunder last time out. Im betting on a grinding affair. LA CLIPPERS are 27-14 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 212.8 ppg. LA CLIPPERS are 8-0 UNDER in road games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. with a combined average of 205.1 ppg scored. ( Oklahoma City upset them last time out) NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off a home win, team that had a losing record last season are 45-13 UNDER L/L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA CLIPPERS) - a terrible offensive team (104 or less PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG), after scoring 48 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 125-75 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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10-26-22 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 227.5 | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show | |
Los Angeles has been solid on the defensive end so far this season, and will be primed to slow down their opponents in physical fashion. The Nuggets have run and gun with wreck-less abandon so far this season, but Im betting they will have to start to pay attention in transition, or continue to be blown off the court as was the case vs the Trail Blazers last time out in a 135-110 loss that featured allowing 80 points in the second half . I can guarantee you the coaching staff of the Nuggets will be focused on playing better defense immediately and that will help see this combined score stay on the low side of the offered number. LA LAKERS are 51-31 UNDER in road games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better of their shots. DENVER is 43-20 UNDERL/63 in home games after a game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 55% or higher with a combined average of 202.2 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DENVER) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 125 points or more are 30-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 94% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DENVER) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 235 points or more are 24-3 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. Play on the UNDER |
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10-26-22 | Heat -1.5 v. Blazers | 119-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
Portland is on a big run to begin their season winning all 4 of their contests, while the Heat have looked lethargic at times and lost 3 of their first 4 games. It must be noted , however, that MIAMI is 8-0 ATS in road games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons and are a resilient group with top tier chemistry and work ethic so staying in a down mode wont be permanent. Miami has won their last two visits to Portland and Im betting number 3 is right around the corner. PORTLAND is 11-26 ATS L/37 off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival . The Blazers had a 135 point output last time out against Denver in a DD win ( 135-110) so now a regressionary offensive output against a Heat side that can play a strong brand of D wont come as a surprise. Note: Portland hasn't won at least five in a row to start a campaign since the Clyde Drexler-led squad won its first eight in 1992-93. MIAMI is 22-8 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.MIAMI is 30-18 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots over the last 2 seasons. Miami has won the last three meetings overall against the Blazers. Play on Miami to cover |
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10-26-22 | Nets v. Bucks -3.5 | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
Giannis Antetokounmpo is up-trending in his scoring average to nearly 30 points a game last season and is off to another quick start and averaging 32.5 ppg entering this tilt. He averaged 31.9 points per game against the Nets in the 2021 Eastern Conference semifinals and matches up very well against this current group and will be key for me in backing the Bucks to win and cover tonight against a Nets team with early season defensive problems. Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after a combined score of 255 points or more are 23-5 ATS L/26 seasons for a 82% conversion rate. Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - after allowing 48 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more are 45-4 L/26 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.3 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. Nets are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Milwaukee. Nets are 16-35-1 ATS in the last 52 meetings. Play on Milwaukee to cover |
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10-25-22 | Pistons v. Wizards -5.5 | 99-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
This is Detroits 3rd straight road game and they have lost the previous two by 24 and 9 points respectively and now Im betting they are at a disadvantage vs a Wizards side that are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. note: Pistons are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Washington. The L/4 meetings here in DC have been won the Wizards by DD margins and a rinse and repeat situation is projected here. NBA team vs the money line (WASHINGTON) - excellent defensive team (42% or less ) against a struggling defensive team (47% or more ) are 29-4 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.5 ppg which qualifies on this ATS offering. NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (DETROIT) - off a loss against a division rival, on Tuesday nights are 1-27 L/5 seasons for a go against 97% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12.2 . Play on Washington to cover |
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10-24-22 | Jazz v. Rockets +2 | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
After losing key players in the off season it was expected that the Jazz could easily find themselves as lottery picks by the end of this campaign. Well for now they have dispelled some of the pundits predictions, after some early season wins including a hard fought OT victory vs the Pelicans last now. However, now on tired legs and offering up less than deep bench Im betting they are vulnerable to being upset by their hosts the Houston Rockets this Monday night. Jazz are 16-35-4 ATS in their last 55 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Jazz are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 road games. Jazz are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 0 days rest.Jazz are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (UTAH) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (118 PPG or more ), after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are just 11-30 L/26 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Houston Rockets to cover |
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10-24-22 | Magic v. Knicks UNDER 220 | 102-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Both these teams NYK and the Magic took part in run and gun fast paced games last time out, and Im betting on tired legs and offensive regression taking its toll here tonight in what will see this combined score fail to see this offered number from the lines-makers being eclipsed. Under is 5-0 in Magic last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Thibodeau is 16-4 UNDER versus terrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game as the coach of NEW YORK with a combined average of 202.6 ppg. NEW YORK is 42-25 UNDER as a favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 209 ppg. Under is 14-4 in Knicks last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Under is 6-2-1 in Knicks last 9 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Under is 20-7-1 in Knicks last 28 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. The L/4 meetings in this series have not eclipsed this offered total. Under is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings in New York. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW YORK) - off a home win, team that had a losing record last season are 22-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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10-23-22 | Suns +2.5 v. Clippers | 112-95 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
After a hard fought win vs the Dallas Mavs (107-105) in their opener the Suns had a letdown performance in game 2 of their campaign against Portland and lost 113-111 , but will now be prepared in a big way for a bounce back against the Clippers tonight. Note:
Williams is 48-31 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of PHOENIX. PHOENIX is 26-12 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
NBA Home favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - off a win against a division rival, first half of the season are 42-80 L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors. NBA team (PHOENIX) - off a upset loss as a favorite against opponent off a road win by 3 points or less are 47-20 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. Play on the Phoenix Suns to win |
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10-22-22 | Cavs -1.5 v. Bulls | 128-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
Donovan Mitchell is a game changer for the Cleveland Cavaliers and Im betting he will be the difference maker here tonight in Chicago. I know LaVine is expected to make his debut tonight for Chicago after sitting out so far with a nagging injury, but he is still less than 100% and may not play as much as is expected by the pundits. Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.Bulls are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games. NBA team vs the money line (CHICAGO) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog against opponent off a road loss are 33-82 L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Underdogs (CHICAGO) - off a close road loss of 3 points or less, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games are 6-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Cavaliers to cover |
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10-22-22 | Pistons -1 v. Pacers | 115-124 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
Both these teams are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, but my special power rankings suggest the Pistons are more well conditioned than the Spurs . Considering how tanked the Pacers looked at the end of their last game which was a back and forth event vs San Antonio last night that saw them lose by a 137-134 count, I feel confident the Pistons finding. a way to get the W tonight and keep Indiana winless on the season. Pistons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Pistons are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games.Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against opponent off a road loss are 5-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (INDIANA) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against opponent off a road loss are 6-27 L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover |
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10-22-22 | Celtics v. Magic +9 | 126-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Celtics played a strong game last night in Miami against what was a revenge minded Miami Heat team, that wanted redemption for last years game 7 loss to Boston. However, that expected strong effort did not materialize and instead it was Boston who came out swinging and eventually garnering a 111-104 win . After playing all out hoops last night I now expect the Bean town crew to be in a physical and emotional letdown scenario vs a young under rated Orlando squad playing at home dreaming of an upset. Celtics are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. BOSTON is 2-11 ATS after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Magic are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - off an road win scoring 110 or more points, team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season are 15-42 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors. Favorites (BOSTON) - poor foul drawing team from last season - attempted 24 or less free throws/game, hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or better of their shots are 13-40 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Orlando to cover |
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10-21-22 | Celtics v. Heat +2.5 | 111-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
Miami opened this season with a loss, 116-108 to the visiting Chicago Bulls on Wednesday. The team played well and still were defeated, but Im betting on a bounce back here by the Heat vs a Boston Celtics side they have revenge against for a Game 7 loss in last years play offs. I know Boston looked good , in their opening win against Philadelphia on Tuesday by a 127-116 count, but will now be in emotional letdown spot after a big night where Bill Russells number was retired. Celtics are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.Heat are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss. Play on revenge minded Miami Heat to cover |
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10-19-22 | Hornets -1.5 v. Spurs | 129-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
San Antonio is committed to a long-term rebuild as is evident by trading Dejounte Murray to the Atlanta Hawks. I know there are also question marks around Charlotte, but despite of probably not playing All-Star LaMelo Ball here tonight who has an ankle injury still is the deeper side with more experience and overall fire power. Charlotte will go big on Wednesday with a starting five of forwards Kelly Oubre Jr., Gordon Hayward and P.J. Washington, center Mason Plumlee and point guard Terry Rozier in Ball's stead. Rozier averaged 19.3 points per game in 2021-22. Im betting they over power the young Spurs on their way to a win. CHARLOTTE is 13-3 ATS as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons and get the nod here this Wednesday night. Hornets are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Play on the Charlotte Hornets to cover |
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10-18-22 | 76ers v. Celtics -2 | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
The Celtics won last season's Eastern Conference championship . The Celtics have had some bad PR surround the team , of late, as HC Ime Udoka was suspended for the season because of a scandal and now the men from Bean-town move forward with interim head coach, Joe Mazzulla. The Celtics beefed up in the off season with Blake Griffin now in the fold and the often injured but very talented Malcolm Brogodon. The chemistry of the team and hard defensive work ethic will Im betting stay intact as their ability to compete in the Eastern Conference. Note: The Celtics led the league in Defensive Rating (106.2) last season and despite of some defensive deletions including Williams III remain solid in that stopping department. I know there is alot of enthusiasm around Embiid and Harden in the 76ers rotation , but Im not sold that these two stars complement each other and cohesiveness is something that may not manifest for the Philly pundits. Last season the Sixers ranked 11th in Offensive Rating (113.0) and 12th- Defensive Rating (110.2) and Im betting at least for now those averages will not be excessively breached. As for tonight home court advantage will be key, and something I'll call in a tongue and cheek manner "The Tuesday Effect " PHILADELPHIA is 0-10 ATS on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons. NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - on Tuesday nights are 184-118 ATS L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate. 76ers are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 road games. 76ers are 4-16 SU L/20 visits to Boston dating back to the 2015 season. Play on Boston to cover |
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06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | 103-90 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 35 m | Show | |
Well its do or die for the Celtics tonight, and I believe they have enough talent and moxy to find a way to take this to a game 7 and more importantly get us the cover. Remember in game 5 the Celtics essentially beat themselves missing 10 FTs as Curry did not make a 3 pointer and the Warriors only shot 41% from the field. Curry can be notoriously streaky and instead of a bounce back dont be surprised if he's kept in check again. BOSTON is 11-1 ATS after scoring 95 points or less this season which was the case in game 5. Average ppg diff clicks in at+ 9.7 . BOSTON is 11-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. Warriors are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Warriors are 1-3-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Boston. NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 28-67 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Boston Celtics to cover |
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06-13-22 | Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 212.5 | 94-104 | Win | 100 | 35 h 23 m | Show | |
Golden States modus operandi since the beginning of this season, has been to play a top tier brand of defense, and the same can be said about the Boston Celtics . Now tonight in a pivotal game 5 battle, Im betting on some very physical hoops with defense being a priority for the NBA two top Ds, out of transition. GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 UNDER in home games when playing with 2 days rest this season with a combined average of 201.9 ppg scored. Since the Warriors championship run in 2015, they have been tied 2-2 in a playoff series 4 other times. The UNDER is a perfect 4-0 in Game 5 in this spot. These contests have gone UNDER the offered Total by an average of 16.5 PPG. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BOSTON) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 134-87 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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06-10-22 | Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 214.5 | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
The Celtics were able to score and penetrate at will vs the Golden State Warriors in game 3, and Im betting Boston plans on being offensively aggressive again, but this time the Warriors top tier D will adjust properly and make sure defense is their primary cause here tonight especially with Steph Curry playing injured and less than 100%. Also both sides are very tired as this has been an exhausting post season, and with exhaustion a factor a lower combined score as well. BOSTON is 32-18 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average 209.6 ppg scored.
Since the 2012-13 season, the total on Warriors tilts has gone 28-10-1 UNDER following a playoff loss in a series game for a 74% conversion rate. Play on the UNDER |
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06-05-22 | Celtics +4.5 v. Warriors | 88-107 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 45 m | Show | |
The Celtics came out in game 1 of their NBA Finals series and continued their strong play from game 7 of their series with the Miami Heat. I know zig zag theorists would now suggest a Golden State bounce back, but Im betting the Celtics continue to give the Warriors all they can handle and according to my projections give us a cover. Note:BOSTON is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.BOSTON is 8-1 ATS in road games as a # 2 seed in the playoffs this season.BOSTON is 4-0 straight up against GOLDEN STATE as visitors the last 3 seasons. Celtics are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.Celtics are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Golden State. NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 65-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. The visiting side in the NBA Finals has won and cashed 4 straight times as dogs of -0.5 to -5 in game 2. Play on the Boston Celtics to cover Play on Boston to cover |
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06-02-22 | Celtics v. Warriors OVER 212.5 | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
Golden State is well rested and Im betting they come and attack Boston with all guns blazing tonight and force the Celtics out of their comfort zone in what Im betting will be a higher scoring affair than the lines-makers are expecting. Boston must also not be underestimated in their ability to be offensively explosive in response to what is coming their way. Over is 11-5 in Celtics last 16 games as an underdog. Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Over is 10-4 in Warriors last 14 NBA Championship games. My projections estimate the Warriors will score +109 points. Note:BOSTON is 15-3 OVER when they allow 109 to 114 points in a game this season with a combined average of 222 ppg going on the board. Play on the OVER |
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05-29-22 | Celtics v. Heat +2.5 | 100-96 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
The Heat have dropped two straight at home to the Celtics in this series but this series has been widely erratic with each team going on a long uninterrupted offensive runs. But here in a key game 7 situation Im betting home court advantage will be golden. Note: The Heat are 36-14 SU and 30-19-1 (61.2%) ATS as hosts this season.Also from a historical betting viewpoint it must also be noted that Home teams in Game 7 after winning their previous game by a margin of six or greater like the Heat did are a perfect 15-0 straight up going back 22 seasons. MIAMI is 20-8 ATS as an underdog this season.MIAMI is 10-2 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog this season. BOSTON is 15-28 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (108-114 PPG), after scoring 48 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 29-9 SU L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. Play on the Miami Heat to cover |
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05-27-22 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
I know the Heat have not looked good in recent games, especially on offense, but this team is deep and have enough pride to rally here tonight as they are being openly disrespected by the pundits and the lines-makers alike.
BOSTON is 2-11 ATS in home games after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. NBA Road teams (MIAMI) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a home loss by 10 points or more are 116-66 L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate. NBA team vs the money line (MIAMI) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) vs. an excellent defensive team (104 or lrdd PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games are 59-16 L/25 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. Play on Miami Heat to cover |
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05-26-22 | Mavs v. Warriors OVER 215 | 110-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
With a chance to clinch this series and advance here tonight Im betting the Golden state Warriors come out tonight firing on all cylinders forcing the Mavs out of their comfort zone and into a more wide open affair. This will result in a higher scoring affair than the lines-makers estimates. Golden State scored 127 and 112 points at home in the first two games of this series and Im betting they score +115 here tonight with Dallas in hot pursuit with their estimated output in the 108+ range. Over is 12-5 in Mavericks last 17 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Over is 9-4 in Mavericks last 13 road games. GOLDEN STATE L/25 games when revenging a road loss vs opponent this season have seen a combined average of 224.5 ppg scored.(Dallas won game 4 -119-109). Play OVER |
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05-26-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -7 | 110-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
The Mavericks avoided being eliminated last time out, but worked very hard to get the win, and are now exhausted after playing an extended amount of post season basketball. Im betting this is not a good spot for them, and are in big time jeopardy of losing this tilt by 8 or more points. Warriors are 7-0 ATS in the playoffs coming back home after losing on the road when the line is between -7 and -8.5 with the average margin of victory coming by an average of 20.86 ppg. GOLDEN STATE in 20 home games versus sub par offensive teams - scoring 108 or less points/game this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.6. GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season. Play on Golden State to cover |
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05-25-22 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 203.5 | 93-80 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
The Heat came out flat last time out and laid an egg in a lifeless effort losing by a 102-82 mark. However, Im now betting on a bounce back effort, from the Heat especially on offense where they will be much more aggressive but Im also betting the Celtics wont be easily run over and be ready to go head to head in what should be a much more explosive offensive tilt than what we saw in game 4. BOSTON is 17-8 OVER after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season with a combined average of 220.9 ppg scored. MIAMI is 7-0 OVER after a combined score of 190 points or less this season with a combined average of 226.3 ppg scored. MIAMI is 17-5 OVER after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 222.5 ppg scored. MIAMI is 30-18 OVER versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less points/game this season with a combined average of 212.7 ppg scored.MIAMI is 18-7 OVER in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score of 212.8 ppg scored. Over is 21-8 in Heat last 29 Conference Finals games. Over is 7-1 in Celtics last 8 Conference Finals games.Over is 8-2-1 in Celtics last 11 games as a road favorite.Over is 10-3 in Celtics last 13 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 12-4-1 in Celtics last 17 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. Play OVER |
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05-23-22 | Heat +6.5 v. Celtics | 82-102 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Both these teams are banged up in what is turning into a back forth battle between two very evenly matched teams, which has me taking points tonight. I know Butler sat out the entire 2nd half in game 3 but is expected back tonight for at least a portion of the game and even in limited use gives us an edge. If butler does not play Lowry and center Bam Adebayo make a formidable duo that wont be easily handled especially with Smart and Jason Tatum hobbled with injuries and less than 100%. MIAMI is 10-1 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog this season. MIAMI is 11-3 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. MIAMI is 20-9 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Heat are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 Conference Finals games. MIAMI is 16-7 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. MIAMI is 16-6 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. Celtics are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Conference Finals games. Heat are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Boston. Play on the Miami Heat to cover |
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05-22-22 | Warriors v. Mavs -2.5 | 109-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
The Mavericks came back in game 2 and scored 72 first-half points as they led by as much as 19. However, they exerted to much energy early and did not pace themselves and faltered down the stretch. Here in game 3 Im betting the Mavericks work more methodically and do enough damage needed behind the energy of their home crowd and motor themselves to a victory and more importantly a cover. DALLAS is 13-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. DALLAS is 20-8 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season.DALLAS is 17-6 ATS off a road loss this season.DALLAS is 11-2 ATS in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots - 2nd half of the season this season. GOLDEN STATE is 8-18 ATS in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season. GOLDEN STATE is 11-23 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) - after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game are 60-30 L/26 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Dallas to cover |
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05-21-22 | Heat +6.5 v. Celtics | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
After watching the Celtics manhandle the Heat in game 2 of this series, alot of money has come down on Boston. Wrong or right Im going to take a contrarian stance, with the under rated Heat and their ability to bounce back in true zig zag theory. It must be noted for whatever reason, I began to focus on the Heats progressions closely this season, and according to my power rankings are vastly under rated and with 6+ points to take on the table Im betting we get a cover. BOSTON is 7-18 ATS in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Celtics are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Conference Finals games.Celtics are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.Celtics are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win MIAMI is 15-6 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season. MIAMI is 18-6 ATS as an underdog this season. Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. MIAMI is 15-6 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. MIAMI is 15-7 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. NBA Road teams (MIAMI) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog are 58-28 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Heat are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Boston. Play on Miami to cover |
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05-20-22 | Mavs v. Warriors UNDER 214.5 | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
Entering this play off series Golden State and Dallas destinies center around defense as do their successes and failures. The Warriors rank 3rd in the NBA in ppg allowed and 15h in offense and just 13th in pace, while Dallas ranks 2nd in the NBA in ppg allowed and 30th in pace and 24th in offensive output. Needless to say top tier defensive action should be expected tonight. Nothing changed in game 1 of this series and Im betting on a rinse and repeat lower scoring game once again, and now that Dallas has had some time to rest and adjust an even more physical tilt should be expected. GOLDEN STATE is 13-5 UNDER in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less points/game this season with a combined average of 209.4 ppg scored. DALLAS is 33-19 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 209.7 ppg scored. DALLAS is 8-0 UNDER after scoring 90 points or less over the last 2 seasons.with a combined average of 204.5 ppg scored. DALLAS is 40-25 UNDER when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season with a combined average of 211.6 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DALLAS/GOLDEN STATE) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 305-213 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 59% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DALLAS) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 131-83 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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05-19-22 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 207.5 | 127-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
With Butler off a 40 point offensive out put in game 1 and now in top form the Heat will be hard to stop.Heat coach Erik Spoelstra won't be surprised if there is another Butler explosion in Game 2. QUOTE: "Jimmy Butler is an elite competitor," Spoelstra said. "There are a lot of guys in this league playing basketball; he's competing to win. That's a totally different thing, and he does that as well as anybody in this league. END QUOTE With that said, Im betting the Heat will go above their expected output tonight, and that the Celtics will have to open up and reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own or be blown off the court, which will lead to a combined score that eclipses this total. Over is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 Conference Finals games. MIAMI is 28-17 OVER versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less points/game this season with a combined average of 212.4 ppg scored. MIAMI is 32-18 OVER when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 3 seasons. BOSTON is 29-17 OVER in road games after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 223.7 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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05-18-22 | Mavs v. Warriors UNDER 214.5 | 87-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
Golden State and Dallas destinies center around defense as do their successes and failures. The Warriors rank 3rd in the NBA in ppg allowed and 15ht in offense and just 13th in pace, while Dallas ranks 2nd in the NBA in ppg allowed and 30th in pace and 24th in offensive output. Needless to say top tier defensive action should be expected tonight. GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 UNDER in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 212 ppg going on the board. Under is 7-2 in Warriors last 9 Conference Finals games. DALLAS is 32-19 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 210 ppg scored. Under is 47-23 in Mavericks last 70 games as an underdog. NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 103-68 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER . |
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05-17-22 | Celtics v. Heat -1.5 | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
05-15-22 | Mavs v. Suns -6 | 123-90 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 3 m | Show | |
The dominance of home teams continued in this series as the Mavericks cruised to a 113-86 win over the Suns and Im betting nothing changes in game 7. PHOENIX is 11-1 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season. PHOENIX is 19-8 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicks in at +10.7. NBA Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (PHOENIX) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more are 29-1 L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate fro bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.7 which qualifies on the ATS line offering. Play on Phoenix Suns to cover |
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05-15-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -5 | 81-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
Kris Middleton remains out for the Bucks. Dating back to last season, the Bucks are 14-15 SU and 12-17 ATS in games without Middleton. This situation has put alot of pressure on on. Antetokounmpo and he has had to carry this team on his shoulders for much of this series, and watching him in game 6 it became obvious to me that he was exhausted and banged up. Considering this Im betting the Celtics have the edge here in game 7. BOSTON is 12-2 ATS versus good rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season. BOSTON is 27-10 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game - 2nd half of the season this season. BOSTON is 21-7 ATS after a combined score of 205 points or less this season. MILWAUKEE is 9-22 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.MILWAUKEE is 13-30 ATS after 3 straight games out-rebounding opponent by 5 or more over the last 3 seasons. Play on Boston to win |
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05-13-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -8 | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
The Golden State Warriors came out flat at the worst possible time in game 5 of this series losing 134-95 on the road. They had the opportunity to take advantage of a Memphis team playing without their top player Morant and instead fell flat on their faces. That Im betting wont happen again. GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 ATS in home games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite this season. GOLDEN STATE is 23-7 ATS in home games after allowing 130 points or more. Kerr is 14-2 ATS in home games vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of GOLDEN STATE. NBA Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more are 28-1 L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.7 which qualifies on this ATS offering. Play on Golden State to cover |
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05-12-22 | Suns -1.5 v. Mavs | 86-113 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
The Phoenix Suns are one victory away from a second straight trip to the Western Conference finals and now Im betting with blood in the water are dangerous opponents in this spot . They made the adjustment they needed to vs Dallas and beat them 110-80 last time out, and that scheme series is highly probable to continue tonight. PHOENIX is 16-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. PHOENIX is 22-9 ATS in road games against Southwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons. NBA Home underdogs (DALLAS) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are just 22-54 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Suns are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Dallas. Play on Phoenix to cover |
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05-12-22 | Heat v. 76ers -2 | 99-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
This series has been a homer event, since game 1 with the hosts holding an advantage in their own back yard and Im betting nothing changes tonight in Philly. Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog. Heat are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia. 76ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite. NBA Underdogs vs the money line (MIAMI) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a huge blowout loss by 30 or more points are 8-42 L/26 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate. Play on the 76ers to win/cover |
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05-11-22 | Warriors -4 v. Grizzlies | 95-134 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
Memphis in game 4 found a way to stay competitive without Ja Morant in the lineup, but I doubt they will be that good again as they rallying cry will fade as will Golden States previous inability to read the Grizzlies defensive schemes. What Im saying is that the Warriors will adjust here and get the win . MEMPHIS is 2-12 ATS when facing elimination in a playoff series since 1996. Kerr is 15-5 ATS in road games after a close win by 3 points or less as the coach of GOLDEN STATE. NBA Underdogs (MEMPHIS) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 19-63 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate. Play on Golden State to cover |
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05-11-22 | Bucks v. Celtics OVER 214.5 | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
There was enough aggressive offensive action in game 4 of this series, with a combined 224 points scored for me to consider this totals offering as an opportunity to cash an over bet. Im betting on the Celtics being extremely aggressive tonight offensively knowing that the Bucks Kris Middleton is still not playing and have had time to access their best approaches against the Bucks ie Game 4s impressive victory. I know Middleton is not a lockdown defender by any means but he is an excellent team defender and a key part of Milwaukee's defensive schemes due to his length and overall versatility, so with him continuing to be out you can expect Boston to be in a run and gun mode , which will force the Bucks into opening up offensively or be blown of the court. Over is 5-2 in Bucks last 7 playoff games as an underdog.
NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MILWAUKEE/ BOSTON) - in a game involving two average three point shooting teams (33%-36.5%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) after 42+ games are 198-122 OVER L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate. Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings. Play OVER |
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05-11-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -5.5 | 110-107 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
After watching the Celtics come back and almost take game 3 of this series losing 103-101 and than take command with a game 4 116-108 victory it became obvious to me the momentum had swung into the Celtics favor. With Kris Middleton still on the sidelines for Milwaukee the Celtics are a strong play , especially here at home.Bucks are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog. Bucks are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. MILWAUKEE is 13-30 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. Celtics are 26-12-1 ATS in their last 39 playoff games as a favorite. BOSTON is 11-1 ATS ( versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season. BOSTON is 11-1 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons. Play on Boston to cover |
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05-10-22 | Mavs v. Suns -5.5 | 80-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
The home team has won every game and the series is tied 2-2 going into Game 5 on Tuesday night in Phoenix and Im betting nothing changes tonight. Suns super star lead the team with 35 points in the game 4 loss, but as quoted is ready for a the ups and downs of any post season series QUOTE: "We understand that it's a series," Booker said. "It's the playoffs for a reason. "We're going to make our adjustments. ... I think we just have to flush it and move on to the next game." END QUOTE. PHOENIX is 14-0 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons with a average pgg diff clicking in at +15.6 . PHOENIX is 10-1 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season. PHOENIX is 18-8 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at just under +10. NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 47-92 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Phoenix to cover |