Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-08-20 | Bucks v. Magic UNDER 220.5 | 112-95 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
Orlando owns the best ppg defence in the NBA and ranks 29th in offence, behind the 28th ranked pace, so its obvious to see the type of game plan they implement. Mean while, ee all know Milwaukee can light the board up quickly behind the No.1 offence so Orlando will take special care here and try to drag this game down to a speed that takes the Bucks out of their flow. Note: Milwaukee also ranks 9th in ppg D, in the league so the Magics pedestrian O is really going to have trouble tonight with output. Advantage to the under. The Magic are 0-15 L/15 as a dog with rest off a loss in a road game in which they had at least 5 turnovers more than their season-to-date average with a combined average of 181.5 ppg going on the board. The Magic are 0-17 UNDER L/17 at home off a loss when they lost 3 straight vs current opponent with a combined average of 200 ppg scored. ORLANDO is 12-2 UNDER in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 204.8 ppg going on the board. Play UNDER |
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02-07-20 | Blazers v. Jazz -8.5 | 114-117 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show | |
Utah looked asleep at the wheel vs a short handed Denver side the other night and suffered a 3 point loss at home as 9 point favorites. It was embarrassing to say the least, for a team that prides itself on hardcore blue collar work ethic. Now looking for redemption Im betting they get it vs a exhausted Portland team that played last night in as come from behind win and now playing their 4th game in week . UTAH is 13-3 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite over the last 2 season. Note: The Trailblazers are 0-10 ATS/SU L/10 as a dog after a win in which they trailed after the third with the average ppg diff registering at -13.6 ppg. PORTLAND is 4-12 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The Jazz are 13-1 ATS /SU as a favorite off a loss after a game with 8+ lead changes. The Jazz are 11-0 ATS/SU off a loss in a home game facing an opponent taking more than one third of their shots from beyond the arc with the average ppg diff clicking in at 14.3 ppg. The Jazz are 19-3-1 ATS /21-2 SU at home with rest facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12.5 ppg. NBA Teams like the Jazz are 11-0 ATS /SU L/14 as a home 8+ favorite with less than two days rest off a loss in which their opponent shot worse than 25% from beyond the arc with at least 20 attempts with the average ppg diff clicking in at +20.9 ppg. Play on Utah to cover |
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02-07-20 | Rockets v. Suns UNDER 234 | 91-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
The new look Rockets, on tired legs get set to play the second of a road back-to-back set Friday night against the Phoenix Suns . Im betting some of their trades screw with the offensive flow of the team at least for tonight, and because of their uptempo win vs the Lakers last night will now be in an emotional letdown spot in regression stage. This Im betting will effect the total to the low side here this evening. The Suns are 0-13 UNDER L/13 as a dog with rest off a loss as a favorite when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home with a combined average of 187.6 ppg scored. The Rockets are 0-16-2 UNDER L/18 on the road when the line is within 3 of pick facing an opponent averaging more than 24 assists per game with a combined average of 213.2 ppg going on the scoreboard. NBA Teams like the Suns are 1-17-1 UNDER L/19 as a home dog with rest after playing as a road favorite facing an opponent taking more than one third of their shots from beyond the arc with a combined average of 212.9 ppg going on the board. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (HOUSTON) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 215 points or more are 42-13 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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02-07-20 | Raptors -1 v. Pacers | 115-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
The Toronto Raptors recorded an impressive victory for their franchise-best 12-game winning streak by come from behind and erasing a 19-point deficit to upend the Indiana Pacers. This Raptors team is confident and is never out of a game because of their consistency at both ends of the court. Im betting they will be pushed tonight, but in the end will find a way to notch a 2nd straight victory in this series. Note:The Raptors are 10-0 ATS /9-1 SU with less than two days rest off a win in a home game after a win in which they trailed by 15. Teams like the Pacers are 0-10 ATS /SU L/10 at home when the line is within 3 of pick off a road game after a loss in which they led by 15. NBA Teams like the Raptors are 11-0 ATS /SU on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a home game after rebounding less than 20% of their own misses. NBA team vs the money line (INDIANA) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 11-30 SU L/5 seasons and 0-5 this season! NBA team (INDIANA) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 46-105 ATS L/23 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Toronto to cover |
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02-07-20 | Mavs -3 v. Wizards | 118-119 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Dallas does its best work against teams like Washington. DALLAS is 12-2 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36%or better of their attempts this season and have excelled as road chalk going 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games as an away favorite. Also when Dallas comes off a home game and then playing on the road they are 19-0 ATS L/19 overall. I know the Mavericks are with super star Donic and possibly Kristaps Porzingis but from a depth standpoint still have the guns needed to take down a defensively deficient opponent.DALLAS is 15-6 ATS versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game this season. The Mavericks are 15-0 ATS and have won 13 straight SU/ATS on the road with rest off a home game in which they had at least 30% of their points from threes. NBA teams like the Mavericks are 25-2-1 ATS /26-2 SU as a road favorite after a game as a home favorite in which they had a shooting percentage at least 10 lower than their opponent. NBA Home underdogs (WASHINGTON) - excellent offensive team (102 or more PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 or more PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games are 17-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Dallas to cover |
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02-06-20 | Spurs v. Blazers UNDER 229.5 | 117-125 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
San Antonio operates a medium speed ranking 15th in the NBA pace, and own the 12 ranked offensive rating with the average combined score of their road games clicking in at 228.4 ppg a full possession under this offered total and tonight Im betting their output and pace will slow even more as this is their 3rd road game in 4 nights . Meanwhile, Portland owns the 11th ranked pace, and are in a regression state after their star Damian Lillard went on a historic points run . Both circumstances Im betting combine to see a score that stays on the low side of this number. The Trailblazers are 0-13 UNDER L/13 when the line is within 3 of pick off a loss in which they had more than 8 times as` many field goal attempts as turnovers with a combined average of 198.4 ppg scored. NBA Teams like the Spurs are 0-10 UNDER L/10 on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a loss in a road game in which they scored 15 or more points in the second than the first half with a combined average score of 210.5 ppg. |
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02-05-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz -9 | 98-95 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Utah has dominated this series at home winning 9 straight here and are 7-2-1 ATS and Im betting they have a distinct edge tonight vs a Utah side that played hard last night from start to finish vs Portland which was their 3rd game in 4days. Now in a letdown spot on tired legs the host has the edge.The Denver Nuggets could also find themselves with a short bench for their Wednesday road game against the Utah Jazz after reportedly pulling off a four-team trade Tuesday night. This will effect their flow. DENVER is 1-9 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season. The Jazz are 19-2-1 ATS /21-1 SU at home with rest facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws. Play on Utah to cover |
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02-05-20 | Grizzlies v. Mavs UNDER 228.5 | 121-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
Doncic's second sprained ankle this season has him on the sidelines again, and while the Mavericks has adapted without him Im seeing flow issues with the offense especially on the perimeter. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are talking about playing better defence, and last time out scored just 96 points but held the Pistons to just 82 points and Im betting more stringent D, will once again be on tonight s . agenda in Dallas which will help keep this score on the low side of the total. MEMPHIS is 24-9 UNDER in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 214.9 ppg. MEMPHIS is 18-8 UNDER in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217 ppg scored. The Grizzlies are 0-14 UNDER L/14 as a road dog with less than two days rest off a 10+ win in a home game facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with a combined average of 184.8 ppg. The Mavericks are 4-20-1UNDER L/25 with rest off a win in a road game in which they scored fewer than 10 fast break points with a combined average of 197.9 ppg scored. NBA Teams are 3-24 UNDER L/27 as a home favorite off a game as a dog when their last four games are LLWW with a combined average of 202.7 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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02-05-20 | Hawks +5 v. Wolves | 127-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
Halting a season-long 12-game losing streak when they return home to host the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday Im betting will not be as easy as the line indicates, even though the Hawks are short handed. Nothing comes easy to the Wolves, especially winning. MINNESOTA is 0-7 ATS versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The Timberwolves are 2-17 ATS at home facing an opponent taking more than one third of their shots from beyond the arc. The Timberwolves are 0-14 ATS /1-13 SU at home when they are off two games in which they allowed 110+ points. Play on Atlanta to cover |
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02-04-20 | Spurs +12 v. Lakers | 102-129 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
The Spurs fell 108-105 to the Clippers last night in have looked competitive for a while now and up-trending in my power rankings. Its not an easy task playing on consecutive nights in the NBA and especially not here in LA where two top tier teams are located, but San Antonio is one of the leagues better conditioned teams, and are going to be motivated to get revenge for a 114-104 loss at home in this series back in late November. SAN ANTONIO is 31-7 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Also teams playing the 2nd of back to back in LA are actually a long term good bets, going 82-65-1 ATS for a 56% conversion rate. ( just the opposite of what you might expect) SAN ANTONIO is 32-18 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons The Lakers are 1-18 ATS as a home 8+ favorite off a game as a favorite in which they scored 10 or more points in the first than the fourth quarter. The Spurs are 11-0 ATS /9-3 SU as a dog with less than two days rest after a game as a road dog in which they had more than 8 times as` many field goal attempts as turnovers with all 3 losses ins trends subset coming by exactly 2 points. NBA Road underdogs of 10 or more points (SAN ANTONIO) - after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games are 23-6 L/23 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on San Antonio to cover |
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02-04-20 | Blazers +4.5 v. Nuggets | 99-127 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
The Blazers enter this game on a red hot 4 game win streak behind the blazing efforts of super star Damian Lillard. The Trail Blazers guard is on a historic run—one that could shape the West’s 8-seed race and Portland’s plans at the trade deadline. Tonight behind Lillard Im betting on the Blazers making life tough on the Nuggets and getting us the cover in revenge mode, for the two losses they have suffered to the Nuggets this season home and away. Note: Denver is off an OT win vs the Pistons last time out on Sunday, and could easily find themselves in an emotional letdown spot. NBA Teams like the Nuggets are 2-17 ATS 6-13 SU L/19 as a favorite after they had overtime. NBA Teams like the Blazers are 18-0 ATS as a dog with rest after playing as a home dog when seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road.The Trailblazers are 21-3-1 ATS on the road after playing as a home dog.The Trailblazers are also 14-1 ATS off a win as a dog when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent. PORTLAND is 11-1 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Nuggets are 1-16 ATS L/17 as a home favorite with less than two days rest off a loss when they won 2 straight vs current opponent. Play on Portland to cover |
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02-04-20 | Bucks -6 v. Pelicans | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
Milwaukee bounced back from a 127-115 home loss to the Denver Nuggets on Friday to close their three-game homestand with a 129-108 victory over the Phoenix Suns on Sunday and roll into the Bayou to play the up trending Pelicans. You can bet because of the hype of Zion Williamson that the powerful Bucks will be in the mood to to make a statement here and give the kid and his team something to think about. Meanwhile, the Pelicans were humbled last time out vs Houston after imploding late, and giving up a boat load full of points thanks to a massive amount of turnovers. Note: NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW ORLEANS) - after a game committing 13+ more turnovers than opponents are 26-66 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. he Bucks are 23-3 ATS /24-2 SU as a road favorite with less than two days rest off a home game in which they scored a least 18 fast break points with the L/19 wins coming by 7 ppg or more and the overall ppg diff clicking in at +12.4 ppg. The Pelicans are 0-9-1 ATS/0-10 SU at home off a loss facing an opponent averaging less than 10 offensive rebounds with the average ppg diff registering in at 11 ppg. NBA Teams like the Pelicans are 0-17-1 ATS /0-18 SU as a home dog with rest off a loss in a road game when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent with the average ppg diff clicking in at 17.2 ppg. Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover |
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02-03-20 | Spurs +10 v. Clippers | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
The Clippers have won two of three against the Spurs, including a 134-109 victory the last time they met on Dec. 21 in San Antonio. However, it must be noted that SAN ANTONIO is 10-1 ATS revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Clippers are 4-24-1 ATS L/29 as a home favorite off a home game when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss at home. NBA Teams like the Clippers are 0-16 ATS as a 8+ favorite after a game as a home favorite in which allowing 50-plus points in the paint. The Spurs are 12-0 ATS L/12 as a dog off a home game in which their opponent had at least a 10 percent higher BAP. NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (LA CLIPPERS) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game are 6-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover |
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02-03-20 | Wolves v. Kings -1.5 | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
The Minnesota Timberwolves are mired in an 11-game losing streak for the second time this season and are fade material in their current form. The Timberwolves are 0-18 ATS/SU as a dog after Karl Anthony Towns was their high scorer by double digits last game. The Kings are 11-0 ATS/SU as a home favorite with less than two days rest off a loss in a home game facing an opponent averaging more than 45 rebounds per game. NBA Teams like the Kings are 18-0 SU/ 17-1 ATS as a home favorite with less than two days rest off a 10+ loss in which they had 3 or fewer double digit scorers. NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (SACRAMENTO) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games are 118-33 L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover |
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02-03-20 | Pistons v. Grizzlies -6.5 | 82-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
The Grizzlies enter this game having won 11 of their L/14 and despite of loss are capable home favorites vs a team that continues to play with out their top player Griffin and will now be without point guard Derrick Rose who is unlikely to play Monday due to a groin injury suffered during the first half of Sunday's game. The Pistons are 1-18 ATS /SU as a dog with less than two days rest off a win after allowing 50-plus points in the paint. NBA Teams like the Pistons are 0-9-1 ATS/0-10 SU L/10 as a road dog off a win in which they scored more than 50 points in the paint with the average ppg diff clicking in at - 13.3 ppg. The Grizzlies are 11-0-1 ATS/12-0 SU as a home favorite after a game as a road dog in which they had an assist percentage at least 10 worse than their season-to-date average with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.6 ppg. NBA Teams like the Grizzlies are 18-2 ATS /19-1 SU as a home favorite with more than one day of rest off a 10+ loss in a road game in which their opponent had at least a 10 percent higher BAP with the average ppg diff registering at +13.9 ppg. Play on the Grizzlies to cover |
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02-03-20 | Celtics -6.5 v. Hawks | 123-115 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
The Atlanta Hawks will have trouble finding enough healthy players to compete on Monday when they host the Boston Celtics.. The Hawks lost two more starters on Saturday and could be without leading scorer Trae Young when they return home to meet the Celtics. If young plays he may see limited time because of nagging minor injuries. The Hawks are 1-19 ATS/SU as a home dog off a road game when seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road. NBA Teams like the Hawks are 0-15-1 ATS /0-16 SU as a home dog with rest off a loss in a road game when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent. Play on Celtics to cover |
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02-03-20 | Celtics v. Hawks UNDER 224 | 123-115 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
The Atlanta Hawks will have trouble finding enough healthy players to compete on Monday when they host the Boston Celtics.. The Hawks lost two more starters on Saturday and could be without leading scorer Trae Young when they return home to meet the Celtics. If young plays he may see limited time because of nagging minor injuries. With thaqt said, Im betting the Hawks offensive flow will be curtailed as will be their offensive output in a game I have pegged to stay on the low side of the total. The Celtics are 0-13 UNDER L/13 as a road 8+ favorite with rest coming off a win with a combined average of 196.8 ppg scored. HC Stevens is 25-9 UNDER as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points as the coach of BOSTON with the combined average score of those tilts clikcing in at 205.6 ppg. The Hawks are 0-10 UNDER L/10 as a 8+ dog off a loss in which their points decreased by at least 25 from the game before with a combined averag of 198.2 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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02-03-20 | Magic -4 v. Hornets | 112-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
The Hornets have lost 10 of their last 11 games, including two on the road since pulling off Tuesday night's home victory against in the New York Knicks.The Magic are in a five-game losing streak, coming off Saturday night's 102-89 home loss to the Miami Heat. both have conistently been in the loss column However, I see more promise from the Magic and give them by support here tonight.Prior to last week, the Hornets lost six consecutive home games. In the last seven home outings, they've failed to score more than 107 points in regulation in any of those. Advantage : Orlando. ORLANDO is 11-3 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at +9.7 ppg. When Orlando visited here on Jan 20th they won by a 106-83 count and a rinse and repeat effort is my projection. NBA Teams like the Magic are 14-0 ATS/SU on the road when the line is within 3 of pick off a 10+ loss facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with the average ppg diff registering at + 11 ppg. Play on Orlando to cover
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02-02-20 | Bulls +10.5 v. Raptors | 102-129 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
Thanks to Torontos current 10 game win streak there is a slightly bloated line attached to this tilt involving the Chicago Bulls. When these teams played earlier this season, the Raptors pulled out a 93-92 squeaker, and Im betting on another close tilt here with the Bulls getting my support. Note: From a SRS perspective: Chicago owns a -2.97 marker, while Toronto a 5.72 , which roughly evens out into a -9 true line according to those projections. So we have a one possession edge which qualifies for me to back the Bulls here getting points. SRS =Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. TORONTO is 14-29 ATS after 6 or more consecutive wins. The Bulls are 14-0-1 ATS on the road facing an opponent averaging less than 10 offensive rebounds with the average ppg diff clicking in at 1.2 ppg. NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (TORONTO) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game are 4-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate. Play on Chicago to cover |
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02-02-20 | Pelicans +5.5 v. Rockets | 109-117 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
The Pelicans have an adrenalin rush and momentum entering this game as Zion Williamson makes his presence felt. New Orleans has won 3 straight, and will not be easily defeated by the Rockets here today. The Pelicans are 11-0 ATS/SU as a dog with less than two days rest off a 10+ win as a favorite when they shot better than 50 percent from the field their last two tilts. NBA team vs the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more are 26-3 L/23 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW ORLEANS) - off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival against opponent off a home win are 36-13 L/23 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on New Orleans to cover |
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02-02-20 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 231 | 108-129 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
Milwaukee came out last time out asleep at the proverbial wheel, and lost as DD favorites to a short handed Denver team by a 127- . Now a little embarrassed Im expecting a concerted effort to make sure they don't have a repeat performance and to make sure they have a much better defensive effort. Teams like the Bucks are 7-27-1 UNDER as a home 8+ favorite with rest off a 10+ loss in which they scored 15 or more points in the first than the second half with a combined average of 200.9 ppg. Teams like Bucks are 1-13-1 UNDER L/15 with rest after playing as a home favorite when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent with a combined average of 210.5 ppg. The Suns are 0-11 UNDER L/11 on the road off a loss in a home game facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with the average combined score clicking in at 207.4 ppg. The Suns are 1-13 UNDER as a dog off a loss as a dog in which their assists decreased by at least 10 from the game before with a combined average of 207.3 ppg scored. PHOENIX is 15-4 UNDER in road games off a home loss over the last 2 seasons are 213.6 ppg. Play UNDER |
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02-02-20 | Suns v. Bucks -11 | 108-129 | Win | 100 | 2 h 4 m | Show | |
Milwaukee came out last time out asleep at the proverbial wheel, and lost as DD favorites to a short handed Denver team by a 127-115 . Now a little embarrassed Im expecting a concerted effort to make sure they don't have a repeat performance and to make sure they have a much better defensive effort in what should be a start to finish effort. Play on Milwaukee to cover |
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02-01-20 | Jazz -5 v. Blazers | 107-124 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
The Blazers are off a huge emotional upset vs the Lakers last night in LA, for Kobe Bryants memorial celebration last night where Lilliard went off for 48 points. The Trailblazers are 0-12 ATS /SU with no rest after a game as a road dog in which allowing 50-plus points in the paint with the average ppg diff clicking in at -8.9. The Jazz are 11-0 ATS/SU as a favorite with less than two days rest off a loss in which they scored fewer than 10 fast break points with the average ppg diff registering at +18.9 ppg. |
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02-01-20 | Lakers -6.5 v. Kings | 129-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
The Lakers payed tribute to former superstar Kobe Bryant before their Friday home game against the Portland Trail Blazers, but then they couldn't get a win and were punished by Damian Lillard's 48-point Kobe like explosion in a 127-119 defeat. Now a little embarrassed Im betting they come out here and take their frustration out on the Kings in a start to finish effort. Note: The Lakers are 6-0 SU on second nights, including 4-0 on the road. The Kings are 0-17 ATS/0-17 SU as a home dog off a win as a road dog facing an opponent averaging more than 5 blocks per game with the average ppg diff clicking in at -16 ppg. NBA Teams like the Kings are 0-18 ATS /SU as a home dog with less than two days rest off a 10+ win in which they had at least 30% of their points from threes (Which was the case for the Kings in a upset win vs the Clippers last time out) Play on the LA Lakers to cover |
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02-01-20 | 76ers v. Celtics -3 | 95-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
Kemba Walker is a 50 /50 bet to play tonight for the Celtics which would slightly adjust my projections but not enough not to lay three with a deep home team in an important eastern conference matchup. The Celtics are 19-0-2 ATS /21-0 SU as a home favorite with less than two days rest off a game as a favorite when they lost 3 straight vs current opponent with none of the L/20 games in this subset coming by less than 5 points a game. NBA Home favorites (BOSTON) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a home win by 10 points or more are 55-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Teams like the Sixers are 1-14 SU/2-13 ATS as a dog off a game as a favorite facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws. Play on Boston to cover |
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02-01-20 | Nets v. Wizards UNDER 242.5 | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
The Wizards allow an average of 121 points per game, the worst figure in the NBA by a large margin, and because they rank 3rd in offensive output we we are getting a bloated public line to bet into. Add to that a couple of back forth performances by the Nets in high scoring games and we now have what Im betting is two possession value to the under. Nets are 0-14 OU with no rest when the line is within 3 of pick with the combined average score of 204.4 ppg going on the board. The Wizards are 0-11 UNDER when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a win in a home game facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with a combined average of 209.5 ppg. The Nets are 2-23 UNDER with less than two days rest off a game as a favorite when the total is at least 15 points more than their last game with a combined average of 191.7 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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02-01-20 | Heat -2.5 v. Magic | 102-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
The Orlando Magic, losers of four straight games, have been off since their 113-92 loss at the Miami Heat on Monday. That rest may hinder them rather than help them vs a Heat team that is well conditioned and in a flow despite of some recent losses. The Heat are 19-1 ATS with more than one day of rest off a loss as a home favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 5 blocks per game. Mimai beat Orlando at home in their last meetings, but it must be noted that ORLANDO is 1-14 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season. MIAMI is 11-2 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. Teams like Heat are 18-0 ATS /SU as a road favorite with more than one day of rest off a loss in a home game facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s. NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ORLANDO) - off a road loss against a division rival, playing with 3 or more days rest are 11-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Miami Heat to cover |
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01-31-20 | Thunder +1 v. Suns | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
In the teams' first meeting, Dec. 20 in Oklahoma City, the Thunder pulled out a 126-108 victory and Im betting on the Thunders domination last time to continue here. The Thunder come into Friday's game having won six consecutive on the road to tie the second-longest streak in Oklahoma City history. The Thunder have won 11 of their last 12 on the road. The Suns are 0-14 ATS/SU with more than one day of rest after they shot over 50% from the field.The Suns are 0-14-1 ATS /0-15 SU off a win as a road dog when seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road. The Thunder are 14-0-1 ATS L/15 on the road with less than two days rest.The Thunder are 13-0-1 ATS L/14 on the road with less than two days rest facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s all from this season and have won their L/6 SU . Play on Oklahoma City Thunder to cover |
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01-31-20 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -5.5 | 111-139 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
Memphis has come a long way and New Orleans is just getting started on the road to bigger and better things as along as Zion Williamson stays healthy. Tonight backing home court advantage for teams that play similar styles is my recommendation. The Pelicans are 14-0 ATS/SU as a favorite off a win in a road game in which they had less than 15% of their points from free throws with the ppg diff clicking in at 15.9 ppg. NBA Underdogs (MEMPHIS) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (82 or more shots/game) after 42+ games, red hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 50% or more of their shots are 4-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Teams like Memphis are 0-16-1 ATS /1-16 SU L/17 as a dog with less than two days rest off a win . Play on New Orleans to cover |
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01-31-20 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans UNDER 241 | 111-139 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
Both these teams can light it up offensively and because of this the linemakers are setting what Im betting is a public leaning line that offers value for sharp under bettors. The Grizzlies are 2-19-1 UNDER L/22 as a road dog with less than two days rest off a 10+ win facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with a combined average of 184.7 ppg scored. NBAHome teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%), after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 29-11 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS/ NEW ORLEANS) - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 41-10 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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01-31-20 | Raptors -4.5 v. Pistons | 105-92 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
The Raptors defeated the Pistons 125-113 on Oct. 30 and 112-99 on Dec. 18 and matchup well vs the Griffin less Pistons who are experiencing alot of inconsistencies with the lineup they have been putting on the floor. DETROIT is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing 16 or more turnovers/game this season with the average ppg diff registering a -9.6 ppg. NBA Teams like the Pistons are 0-14-1 ATS/0-15 SU L/15 as a home dog with rest off a loss in a road game when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent with the average ppg diff clicking in at -18.3 ppg. The Pistons are 0-13-1 ATS /0-14 SU L/14 as a dog with rest off a road game after allowing 50-plus points in the paint with a combined average of - 14.1 ppg diff. The Raptors are 23-4 ATS /25-2 SU L/27 with less than two days rest off a win in a road game facing an opponent averaging more than 24 assists per game with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.6 ppg including 15 wins and 14 of 15 covers. Play on Toronto Raptors to cover |
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01-30-20 | Kings v. Clippers -12 | 124-103 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
LAC Key starters George and Patrick Beverley are listed as probable and Kawhi Leonard also expected to play . Note: In his last eight games, Leonard is averaging 35 points, 7.9 rebounds and 5.4 assists on 51.8 percent shooting which makes for a perilous matchup for a Sacramento Kings team that the Clippers have owned in recent matchups from a ATS perspective as is evident by a perfect 8-0 ATS L/8 mark in this series.In their last meeting on Dec. 31, the Clippers earned a 105-87 victory. Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here tonight and a Clipper cover. Clippers have covered 5 straight at home vs opposition playing 2nd of back to back like the Kings ( Kings lost by 20 to Oklahoma City on the road last night and looked exhausted which does not bode well against a now healthy Clippers side) The Clippers are 20-0 SU/ 18-2 ATS as a home favorite off a road game when they won 2 straight vs current opponent with the average ppg diff clicking in at +18.7 ppg. Play on LA Clippers to cover |
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01-30-20 | Raptors v. Cavs +10 | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
The defending NBA champion Raptors are rolling right now,as is evident by a current 8 game win streak. Now because of their run, Im betting we have a slightly bloated line to bet in to here with the home underdog Cleveland Cavaliers. I know the Cavs have looked asleep at the wheel, for most of this season, but if there was ever a time to wake up , it would be at home against the defending NBA champs. Note: Cleveland is 5-1 SU/ATS L/6 at home in this series. NBA Teams like the Cavaliers are 17-0 ATS L/17 as a dog with rest after playing as a home dog when seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road with the average ppg diff clicking in at -1.9 ppg. NBA Teams like the Cavs are 15-0 ATS L/15 as a 8+ dog off a loss in a home game facing an opponent averaging more than 24 assists per game with the average ppg diff 0f -0.7 ppg. NBA Teams like the Raptors are 0-14 ATS L/14 as a 8+ favorite after a game as a home favorite in which allowing 50-plus points in the paint with the average ppg diff clicking in at +1.9 ppg.The Raptors are 0-11 ATS /3-8 SU L/11 on the road with rest off a win in which their opponent had at least a 10 percent higher BAP. NBA team (TORONTO) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 17-51 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Cleveland to cover |
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01-30-20 | Raptors v. Cavs OVER 221.5 | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
Toronto has been firing on all cylinders of late averaging more than 117 ppg on offence, with the combined average of 226.1 ppg scored in those tilts. On the season Cleveland has average 113.5 +ppg while allowing 114.1 ppg behind the 29th ranked defensive rating. Everything points to those numbers projecting a total combined score that will breach this total. TORONTO is 8-1 OVER versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game this season with a combined average of 233.1 ppg scored. The Raptors are 12-1 OVER L/13 as a 8+ favorite with less than two days rest off a win when they are off two wins as favorites with a combined average score of 234.9 ppg going on the board. NBA teams like the Raptors are 22-2 OVER L/24 as a road favorite with less than two days rest off a win in which they scored more than 50 points in the paint with a combined average of 237.9 ppg scored. The Cavaliers are 11-0-1 OVER L/12 as a dog with less than two days rest off a loss in a home game facing an opponent averaging more than 45 rebounds per game with a combined average of 232.5 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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01-29-20 | Grizzlies -2 v. Knicks | 127-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
Both these teams played last night with the Grizzlies winning and the Knicks losing after holding an early DD lead, which is a confidence buster. Note: The Knicks are 0-12 ATS SU/ATS after a game as a road dog after a loss in which they led by double digits after the first. NY is up trending but Memphis has shown more consistent flow for a longer period of time and have the explosive offensive guns to get the win here on the road. The Grizzlies are 12-0 ATS /SU with less than two days rest off a game as a favorite in which they had 30+ assists.The Grizzlies are 11-0 ATS /SU when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest off a game as a favorite after out scoring their opponent in the paint by double digits.The Knicks are 0-13 ATS SU as a dog with less than two days rest off a loss in which their opponent shot under 40% from the field. Play on Memphis Grizzlies to cover |
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01-28-20 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
Denver has been dealing with injuries all season and is down three of its top rotation players. Power forward Paul Millsap (left knee contusion) will miss his 10th straight game, point guard Jamal Murray (left ankle sprain) will sit for the seventh straight and big man Mason Plumlee (right foot injury) has missed three games and Im betting they will be pushed here tonight in Memphis by an explosive Grizzlies team that has revenge on board for two losses in this series this season. The Grizzlies are 13-0 ATS /SU L/13 when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest off a win as a favorite when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent.The Grizzlies are 11-0-1 ATS /12-0 SU L/12 at home when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest after playing as a home favorite when seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road.
MEMPHIS is 12-4 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season. DENVER is 0-9 ATS in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Play on Memphis to cover |
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01-28-20 | Wizards v. Bucks UNDER 244.5 | 131-151 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
Milwaukee has been playing some excellent defence of late, and as a result of this have gone under the set total in 5 of their L/6 trips to the hardwood. We all know Washington loves to run and gun with wreck-less abandon but after a huge back and forth tilt last time out vs Atlanta ( 133-152) regression to the mean is expected which puts this tilt closer to the 234 range, which according to my own projections gives us value on an under. MILWAUKEE is 24-13 UNDER versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 225.6 ppg scored. The Bucks are 0-15-1 UNDER L/16 at home with rest off a 10+ win in a road game in which they shot over 50% from the field with a combined average of 194.2 ppg with none of the games in this subset going over this total. NBA Teams like the Wizards are 5-25 UNDER L/30 as a road 8+ dog with less than two days rest after a game as a road dog in which a game in which their points per field goal attempt was better than 1.5 with a combined average of 195.5 ppg going on the board. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 50-19 UNDER L/23 seasons seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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01-27-20 | Rockets v. Jazz -12 | 126-117 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
According to ESPN's Tim MacMahon, Harden is unlikely to play on Monday despite being listed questionable. The Rockets are already without Russell Westbrook, who is resting in the second leg of a back-to-back, while Clint Capela (heel) is doubtful. Utah Im betting takes advantage of this tonight and shows very little mercy in this spot play side action. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games against opponent red hot team - having won 18 or more of their last 20 games are 1-40 L/23 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -12.3 ppg. Play on Utah to cover |
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01-27-20 | Cavs v. Pistons -6.5 | 115-100 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
The Cleveland Cavaliers enter this Motown tilt having lost seven straight games. All but two of those defeats were decided by double digits, including the past three. I know the Pistons may not inspire bettors but they have shown some progression and are an under rated team that can get the job done vs a side that looks like its going through the motions. CLEVELAND is 7-18 ATS after 4 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher over the last 2 seasons NBA Home teams vs. the money line (DETROIT) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) against a terrible team (-7 or less PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games are 30-2 L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.3 ppg. Play on Detroit to cover |
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01-26-20 | Nets +2 v. Knicks | 97-110 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
The Knicks played a hard fought game vs the league champs last time losing a 118-112 tilt and will be in an emotional letdown spot today vs a desperate Nets side with revenge on board for a loss to the Knicks back in Brooklyn on Dec 26th by a 94-82 score.That was truly and ugly performance from the Nets and now redemption is at hand. BROOKLYN is 17-4 ATS in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. NYK is 0-8 /ATS L/8 after facing the Raptors. NBA Underdogs (BROOKLYN) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15 against opponent after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread are 48-18 ATS L/23 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Brooklyn Nets to cover |
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01-26-20 | Suns +3 v. Grizzlies | 109-114 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
The Suns have double revenge on board here for two losses in this series this season and have the talent and capability all be it inconsistent to be competitive and pull off an upset here in Memphis. The Suns are 5-0 ATS L/5 as a road dog.PHOENIX is 8-1 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season.Williams is 10-1 ATS in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points as the coach of PHOENIX. NBA Underdogs (PHOENIX) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a road win are 165-103 ATS L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rare for bettors. Play on Phoenix to cover |
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01-26-20 | Celtics -1 v. Pelicans | 108-123 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
The Boston Celtics are playing better despite being short-handed while the New Orleans Pelicans have struggled since getting healthy. The Celtics seek their fourth consecutive victory Sunday when they visit the Pelicans, who are 0-2 since rookie Zion Williamson joined the lineup and Im betting things dont bet much better for the Pelicans here vs a more experienced team. BOSTON is 16-3 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons which was the case last time out . Play on Boston to cover |
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01-26-20 | Raptors -2.5 v. Spurs | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 20 h 9 m | Show | |
Toronto ranks sixth in points per game by an opponent, averaging 106. The Spurs give up an ugly 114.5, 24th in the NBA. Both teams are top-level three-point shooting squads with Toronto shooting t 37.6% to the Spurs’ 36.7%. The Raptors come in having won six in a row while the Spurs had won three consecutive until Phoenix abruptly the with a win in San Antonio. Toronto has won six straight games on the road, the third longest streak in team history and today Im betting they end a long losing streak of 10 games here in San Antonio. SAN ANTONIO is 7-16 ATS in home games this season. NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TORONTO) - revenging a home loss vs opponent against opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite are 32-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. |
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01-26-20 | Raptors v. Spurs OVER 223 | 110-106 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 33 m | Show | |
The Spurs give up an ugly 114.5 ppg, 24th in the NBA and the Raptors average more than 112 ppg overall this season despite of being short handed with injuries for much of this season, but are healthy entering this game vs the Spurs . Both teams are top-level three-point shooting squads with Toronto shooting 37.6% to the Spurs’ 36.7%. With that said, Im betting on a big time shoot out here today in the Alamo. TORONTO is 12-2 OVER in road games in January games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.8 ppg scored. SAN ANTONIO is 20-9 OVER versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 231.4 ppg going on the scoreboard. NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (TORONTO) - off an road win scoring 110 or more points, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 33-9 OVER L/23 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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01-25-20 | Lakers v. 76ers +5 | 91-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
The Philadelphia 76ers will be searching for their 21st victory in 23 games at home when they host the exhausted Los Angeles Lakers on Saturday and Im betting if they lose tonight it wont be a walk in the park for the Lakers, with the home team covering. Note: The Lakers wil be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and are on tired legs.LA LAKERS are 3-12 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons and are 3-12 ATS against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Brown is 29-14 ATS in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. Play on the Philadelphia 76ers to cover |
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01-25-20 | Mavs v. Jazz -4 | 107-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
This line is set on public perceptions and media attention towards super star Doncic. My own projections make Utah, a 6 point home favorite here .With that said, Im betting we have value with the home team, vs a defensively deficient Mavericks side, allowing an average of 111.2 ppg. |
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01-24-20 | Clippers v. Heat UNDER 222 | 122-117 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
Miami, has won its last two home games in overtime and could easily find themselves on tired legs here tonight in a game that Im betting will be slow paced as compared to some of their more recent efforts. The Clippers their opponents tonight are 8-23 UNDER since Nov 08, 2018 as a road dog and have recently gone under 4 straight times as road dogs with the combined average score of 209.7 ppg scored. LA CLIPPERS are 7-0 UNDER versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season The Heat 0-7-2 UNDER L9 vs the LA Clippers. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS) - after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 30-9 L 23 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (MIAMI) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (102 or more PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 130 points or more are 23-5 L/23 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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01-24-20 | Raptors -7.5 v. Knicks | 118-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
The Knicks were smashed by the Raptors on Nov. 27, when the defending NBA champions earned a 126-98 victory in Canada. With the Raptors now fairly healthy they are once again going to be a difficult force to deal with here tonight for a NY team that is in an emotional letdown spot after battling the LA Lakers and leaving everything on the court last time out (100-92).Knicks are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Raptors 9-2 away in a 1/1 rest situation. Play on the Toronto Raptors |
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01-24-20 | Bucks v. Hornets +14 | 116-103 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Charlotte was obliterated by the powerful Milwaukee Bucks earlier this season, by a 137-96 count and Im betting they overlook the Hornets here tonight on the road, as they Im betting they look at this as a unscheduled rest day at an exhausting point in the season. NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (CHARLOTTE) - in a game involving two average three point shooting teams (33%-36.5%), after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 30-10 ATS L/23 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Charlotte is 3-0 ATS L/3 at home in this series. Charlotte to cover |
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01-23-20 | Mavs -5 v. Blazers | 133-125 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
Portland is off a huge their super star Damian Lillards franchise records of 61 points and 11 3-pointers and now Im expecting a huge letdown performance vs the Dallas Mavs tonight . The Mavericks are 16-0 ATS L/16 and 11-0- SU/ATS L/11 on the road off a home game. ( Lost to Clippers 110-107 count last time out) NBA Home underdogs (PORTLAND) - excellent offensive team (102 or more PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 or more PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games are 14-36 ATS L/5 seasons for ago against 72% conversion rate for bettors. Dallas to cover |
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01-23-20 | Lakers v. Nets UNDER 227 | 128-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
The Lakers defence rebounded nicely from allowing 139 points on Monday in a blowout loss at Boston by recording a 100-92 road victory over the New York Knicks on Wednesday. Im betting on more of the same hardcore defensive action tonight against the Brooklyn Nets in a game I have projected to stay under this slightly bloated total. Quote:"They're an elite defense," Nets coach Kenny Atkinson said of the Lakers. "(JaVale) McGee and (Dwight) Howard are absolutely playing, really protecting the rim. They obviously have elite perimeter defenders with LeBron and Danny Green and all those guys.END QUOTE. The Lakers have gone under 10 of 11 games as favs with no rest. The Nets have gone under 8 of their L/10 times at home vs a side playing the 2nd of back to backs. Play UNDER |
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01-22-20 | Pacers -1 v. Suns | 112-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
Indiana got clobbered last time out but it was a bad scheduling loss in my opinion against a red hot Utah side that had revenge on board form multiple losses to the Pacers. The Pacers had played in Denver the night before in a high altitude game and were on tired legs, which is not the case here tonight as Indiana looks to bounce back behind a tenacious work ethic . With that said the Pacers get my support vs a Suns here tonight in Phoenix. Pacers: 5-0 L5 vs Phoenix and get the nod again.Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Pacers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite. Play on Indiana Pacers to cover |
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01-22-20 | Wizards v. Heat -10 | 129-134 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
The Miami Heat, who have the best home record in the NBA at 19-1, will play host to the Washington Wizards on Wednesday night. Now with revenge on board for a a 123-105 loss the Heat suffered in DC to Washington as 11-point road favorites three weeks ago will have them in merciless over drive here tonight.WASHINGTON is 4-16 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons with the a average ppg diff clicking in at -13.1 ppg. MIAMI is 8-1 ATS in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game this season with a combined average of +14.2 ppg.MIAMI is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season with a the average ppg diff clicking in at +15.4 ppg. . Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdogHeat are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Heat are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Heat are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Play on Miami to cover |
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01-22-20 | Grizzlies v. Celtics UNDER 232 | 95-119 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
The Celtics enter off a 139-107 rout of the Western Conference-leading Los Angeles Lakers on Monday vs an explosive Memphis side with a less than average defence. Thanks to this we have a bloated total to bet into here favoring the under. Memphis thanks to bloated total lines involcving them have seen 4 straight games stay under the total. Stevens in the L/21 games after a combined score of 245 points or more as the coach of BOSTON has seen a combined average of 217.9 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 11-3 UNDER after allowing 120 points or more this season which waws the case last time out. ( the combined average score of these games was 219.3 ppg. NBA MEMPHIS is 23-8 UNDER in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 212.7 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 40-9 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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01-22-20 | Thunder +1.5 v. Magic | 120-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
Heading into Wednesday's meeting in Orlando, both the Magic and Oklahoma City Thunder are coming off perhaps their most impressive victories of the season and are currently in top form. However, from a metrics standpoint the superior side is the Thunder.Oklahoma City won the first meeting, 102-94, at home on Nov. 5 in a game and matchup well vs the Magic and get my support here tonight. Note: ORLANDO is 1-12 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season. The Thunder 7-1 away vs Southeast division opposition while the Magic are 3-12 home vs Northwest Division opposition.OKLAHOMA CITY is 13-4 ATS as a road underdog this season. Play on Oklahoma city to cover |
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01-21-20 | Clippers v. Mavs -1.5 | 110-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
Luca Doncic and company continue to impress and very much look like viable investment options to win and cover at home tonight vs the LA Clippers. Yes, I know the Mavs struggle with their D, at times but their offence is a tangible force . This team also just does not turn the ball over very often and ranks No.1 in that category to this point in the season. Yes, the Clippers are looked at more favorably than the Mavericks by the pundits thanks to having Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in the lineup, but when this team go up against above .500 foes they are just 9-9 SU and just 4-8 ATS vs Western Conference opposition and are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. When these teams met earlier this season the Mavs had the wind knocked out of them here on their home home floor, and now Im betting on a revenge factor to be in play here and a very motivated effort from the home side. . Dallas is 9-3 ATS with same-season revenge in this series. Note : injury update Paul George is out for this tilt. NBA Underdogs (LA CLIPPERS) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 31-62 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Dallas Mavericks to cover |
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01-20-20 | Pacers v. Jazz -7 | 88-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
INDIANA is 4-13 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Utah is 15-6 ATS at home with a .500 or better record when seeking triple revenge versus .600 or greater opposition like Indiana. NBA Underdogs (INDIANA) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (82 or more shots/game) after 42+ games, red hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 50% or more of their shots are 4-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Utah to cover |
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01-20-20 | Thunder +6.5 v. Rockets | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
The Rockets are fresh off their big game with the Lakers in Saturday night a tilt which they lost , and Im betting the Thunder catch them in a letdown spot. The Thunder are 10-1-1 ATS in their L/12 as road underdogs and have covered 14 of their L/16 overall so the linemakers are constantly under rating them .Houston has dropped four of its past five games, thanks in part in to an ugly defensive stance and work ethic and in thier current form are fade material.Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Play on Oklahoma City Thunder |
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01-20-20 | Magic -4.5 v. Hornets | 106-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
The Hornets completed a winless four-game road trip Wednesday night in Denver and have lost 6 straight overall and 11 of their L/13 and are fade material in their current form. Meanwhile, Orlando despite of their inconsistencies have been money in the bank against sub par opposition. Note:ORLANDO is 18-3 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 12+ ppg. Play on Orlando to cover |
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01-19-20 | Pacers +2 v. Nuggets | 115-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
The Nuggets will be without Harris, Jamal Murray (ankle), and Paul Millsap (knee) on Sunday. That directly puts the Nuggets at a disadvantage and has me taking the points with a hard working Indiana team on a 4 game win streak that deserves our respect. NBA team vs the money line (DENVER) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 30-11 SU L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. Play on Indiana to cover |
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01-19-20 | Heat v. Spurs OVER 220.5 | 102-107 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
The two teams played Wednesday in Miami, with the Heat producing a 106-100 victory. However, Im betting on a much faster pace being set here as the Spurs on their own home floor will play at fast out of transition. Last time out the Spurs took part in a 121-120 loss to Atlanta, and in the recent past SAN ANTONIO is 8-0 OVER after a loss by 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 235.1 ppg going on the scoreboard. SAN ANTONIO is 13-4 OVER in non-conference games this season with the average combined score of 230.9 ppg. NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (MIAMI) - off an road win scoring 110 or more points, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 30-7 OVER L/23 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 234.1 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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01-18-20 | Kings v. Jazz -9.5 | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 24 h 26 m | Show | |
Utah had a 10 game win streak end in OT last time out, and now Im betting they bounce back at home in a big way vs a Sacramento Kings team that they would love to throttle in revenge mode for a 102-101 loss they suffered earlier this season in California's capital. UTAH is 8-0 ATS in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 18.6 ppg. NBA Favorites vs. the money line (UTAH) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games are 36-4 L/5 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by 11.7 ppg. Play on Utah to cover |
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01-18-20 | Kings v. Jazz UNDER 223.5 | 101-123 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
Utah's 10-game winning streak ended Thursday when the Jazz suffered a 138-132 overtime loss to the host New Orleans Pelicans. Their defence was the culprit last time out, but now in rebound mode Im looking for the Jazz to go into shut down mode which will see a score that fails to eclipse this total. SACRAMENTO is 8-0 UNDER in road games in January games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 215.4 ppg going on the board. NBAHome teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (UTAH) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (102 plus PPG), after scoring 130 points or more are 70-40 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the under |
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01-18-20 | Blazers v. Thunder UNDER 216.5 | 106-119 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
The Blazers are off a loss last night and now playing a back-to-back, will be on tired legs this evening vs Oklahoma City. Things would be worse without the production from point guard Damian Lillard who as usual even in a loss lead the way for the Blazers Note:The Blazers are 0-18 UNDER as a road dog off a loss as a road dog in which Lilliard scored 30 points or more which was the case last night. Donovan is 15-4 UNDER in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY. Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after trailing their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games are 39-13 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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01-17-20 | Hawks v. Spurs -8 | 121-120 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
The Hawks (9-32) head to the Alamo City off a rare 123-110 win at home over Phoenix on Tuesday that snapped a four-game losing streak. Atlanta has now won just three of its past 18 games and Im betting they fall here again, vs a up trending San Antonio spurs team that has revenge on board for a lack luster loss on the road to the Hawks earlier this season.The Spurs' own a current 21-game home winning streak against Atlanta and get my support to cover here in their 22nd straight win at home in this series. ATLANTA is 3-11 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at -18.1 ppg. Play on San Antonio to cover |
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01-17-20 | Heat v. Thunder UNDER 216.5 | 115-108 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
While the Heat are 28-12 and second in the Eastern Conference, they have struggled away from home.The Heat are just 10-11 on the road, scoring 7.5 points per game fewer away from AmericanAirlines Arena scoring an average of 108 ppg behind the 25th ranked pace. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City rank 19th in ppg, behind the 24th ranked pace, entering this game after a wild game against the Raptors last time out (130-121), Im expecting an offensive regression and a return to their usual staunch defensive ways.Donovan is 70-39 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY with a combined average of 214.5 ppg scored. Spoelstra is 84-53 UNDER in road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days as the coach of MIAMI with a combined average of 193.2 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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01-17-20 | Wizards +11 v. Raptors | 111-140 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
The Raptors have won six consecutive meetings with the Wizards, including a 122-118 verdict Dec. 20. Toronto is 20-4 against Washington dating back into the 2013-14 season but only one of the last 6 meetings has beaten this spread. Im not suggesting the Wizards can upset the Raptors, even though anything is possibility, I do believe they can be competitive and get us a cover here as DD dogs. You have to remember the Wizards snatched victories against Denver and Boston recently and with John Beal healthy and in the lineup are and can be dangerous adversaries. Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. NBA team vs the money line (WASHINGTON) - after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more are 33-8 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Washington Wizards to cover |
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01-16-20 | Magic +11.5 v. Clippers | 95-122 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
The Magic have won 4 of their L/5 games and have covered 7 of their L/8 as they are playing their best hoops of the season at the moment as they come off a victory vs Lakers last night. This will be the Magics 2nd straight game in LA as they now face the mighty Clippers in a back to back situation. I know it might seem like the Magic are at a huge disadvantage , but they are very well conditioned , and will not easily run out of fuel here down the stretch vs a far more talented team, which gives credence to a competitive effort and if need be a back door cover. . Note: Teams playing on back to back nights in LA are a profitable bet , going 82-64-1 ATS L/147 for a 56% conversion rate for bettors in their escape from LA game. ORLANDO is 14-4 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. The Magic are 14-1 ATS L/15 as a dog with less than two days rest off a win as a road dog when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent. NBA Teams like the Magic are 40-11 ATS L/51 as a road dog off a win as a road dog when they lost 4 straight vs current opponent. NBA Road underdogs of 10 or more points (ORLANDO) - in non-conference games, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days are 54-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Orlando to cover |
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01-16-20 | Jazz -4.5 v. Pelicans | 132-138 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
New Orleans is hosting a Jazz team that has won 10 games in a row and currently playing their best hoops of the season. With Pelicans key contributors Brandon Ingram (knee), Jrue Holiday (elbow), JJ Redick (hamstring) and Derrick Favors (hamstring), all day to day and less than 100% the home side is at a disadvantage. Note: Utah has won and covered their L/4 trips to the Bayou and get Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation in this spot. The Pelicans are 0-12-1 ATS /0-13 SU L/13 at home when the line is within 3 of pick off a game as a dog after allowing 50-plus points in the paint. NBA Teams like the Pelicans are 0-11 ATS /SU as a home dog with more than one day of rest off a win as a road dog. NBA Road favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (UTAH) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games are 32-1 L/23 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by +9 ppg which qualifies on a ATS parameter. Play on Utah to cover |
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01-16-20 | Celtics v. Bucks OVER 224.5 | 123-128 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
The Bucks took 128-102 win against the New York Knicks on Tuesday with the comfortable margin of victory allowing them to limit the minutes of their starters. Im betting they will be very fresh here and ready to really bring some heat on the Celtics offensively . That in part is why the books laid such a big side number on this game, also factoring in the Celtics fatigue factor with this being a back to back situation for them, and also taking into consideration that HC Stevens left alot of the starters in for more minutes than expected. While the side, is to inflated to have me on the Bucks I do expect their motivation to really see them show no mercy tonight and for the proud Celtics to fire back with some offensive fire works of their own in chase mode which Im betting sees a score that eclipses this total. |
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01-15-20 | Blazers +9 v. Rockets | 117-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Houston played a tough run and gun game vs Memphis last night and lost. Now despite of wanting to bounce back Im betting their tired legs may hinder them vs a Blazers team itching to get revenge for an embarrassing 132-108 loss back in November. PORTLAND is 10-1 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons and is 8-0 ATS revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons. NBA Teams like Houston are 0-11-1 ATS L/12 as a home favorite with less than two days rest off a 10+ loss as a road favorite in which their opponent shot over 50% from the field. Play on Portland to cover |
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01-15-20 | Blazers v. Rockets UNDER 236.5 | 117-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Houston played last night and are now on tired legs and may not be as ready to push the action as usual as we get into the nitty gritty middle of a grueling season. With the Blazers knowing they are entering the proverbial dragons den, you can bet they will be ready to play hard core defence. PORTLAND is 11-1 UNDER in road games after allowing 110 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.8 ppg scored.PORTLAND is 16-4 UNDER in road games after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.2 ppg were scored. The linesmakers have more often then not over compensated on Houston totals when they are set at 230+ or more with 46- of the L/65 games staying under the total . D'Antoni is 23-9 UNDER off an upset loss as a road favorite as the coach of HOUSTON. ( Memphis upset them last night) the average combined score of those follow up games clicks in at 218.7 ppg. The Trailblazers are 3-18 UNDER L/21 on the road off a win in a home game facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with none of the games in that subset eclipsing this total with a combined average of 200 ppg scored. The Rockets are 0-15-1 UNDER L/16 as a home favorite off a loss as a road favorite after allowing 50-plus points in the paint with a combined average of 202.5 ppg going on the board with none of those totals going over this offered number. Play UNDER |
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01-15-20 | Hornets +12.5 v. Nuggets | 86-100 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
The Denver Nuggets are listing Jamal Murray and Gary Harris (adductor) as questionable for Wednesday's game, while Paul Millsap (knee) remains out . Coach Michael Malone was quoted as saying that his team took it easy in practice on Tuesday with several players banged up and hobbled. Charlotte has a much needed edge here tonight and get my support on a DD line. Yes, I know Charlotte is struggling, but they have played well in these types of situations, recording a 11-2 ATS mark off 2 or more consecutive road losses over the last 2 seasons.DENVER is 11-24 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 3 seasons. Play on Charlotte to cover |
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01-15-20 | Nets v. 76ers -7.5 | 106-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
Brooklyn played last night and looked out of sync in a loss to Utah even though they were mostly healthy with Kyrie Irving back on the court. Now on tired legs and lacking flow and going against a team that plays their absolute best ball at home (18-2 SU), Im betting we have an edge here laying points. The Nets are 0-10-1 ATS /1-11 SU with no rest after allowing 50-plus points in the paint with the average ppg diff clicking in at -11.5 ppg. The Nets are 0-8-1 ATS /0-9 SU L/9 on the road with less than two days rest facing an opponent averaging more than 5 blocks per game with the average ppg diff clicking at - 12.8 ppg. NBA Favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent are 32-0 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.3 ppg which makes this a qualifier on the spread. NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent are 27-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Philadelphia to cover |
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01-14-20 | Mavs v. Warriors UNDER 223 | 124-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Golden State enters this game in a big time funk, especially from a offensive standpoint ranking 29th in the league in offensive efficiency. Because of their lack of scoring the Warriors take a very conservative approach to their tilts, with the pace numbers decreasing drastically since the start of the season. Today against the explosive Mavs A team that has put 142 , and 141 points on the board against them in their L/2 meetings this will once again be the case and help keep this combined score on the low side of the total. GOLDEN STATE is 10-1 UNDER after 4 or more consecutive losses this season with a combined average of 211.2 ppg. The Warriors are 0-13 UNDER L/13 off a loss as a road dog in which they had less than 15% of their points from free throws with a combined average of 200.6 ppg.The Warriors are 0-16-1 UNDER L/17 as a dog with less than two days rest off a road game in which they had less than 15% of their points from free throws with a combined average of 192.2 ppg going on the board.The Warriors are 0-13 UNDER L/13 as a dog with rest off a loss as a road dog in which they had 20+ turnovers with a combined average of 192.5 ppg. Play UNDER |
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01-14-20 | Mavs v. Warriors +8.5 | 124-97 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
Golden State was blasted in two straight meetings vs Dallas , allowing 141, and 142 points, and now after those embarrassing efforts will come out here looking for redemption. GOLDEN STATE is 17-7 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Kerr is 23-11 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent as the coach of GOLDEN STATE. The Warriors are 9-0 ATS/8-1 SU L/9 at home off a loss as a road dog after allowing 50-plus points in the paint. Teams are 0-11 ATS L/11 as a 8+ favorite with more than one day of rest off a win. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off a home win by 10 points or more are 24-53 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% go against conversion rate for bettors. Golden State Warriors to cover ( Late Steam) |
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01-14-20 | Suns v. Hawks +3.5 | 110-123 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Trae Young and DeAndre Hunter are in the lineup tonight for the Hawks at home . Meanwhile, Phoenix despite of being improved this season are not a consistent enough commodity to be this big favorite on the road. Atlanta has won their L/2 games here vs the Suns and get my support to cover as home dogs. Note:The Suns are 0-11 ATS /1-10 SU after playing as a home favorite facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws.The Hawks are 17-2 ATS L/19 at home off a 10+ loss in a road game in which they had less than 40% of the total rebounds. Play on Atlanta to cover |
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01-14-20 | Jazz v. Nets +3.5 | 118-107 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
When Kyrie Irving and C Levert are in the lineup for Brooklyn their a more efficient team with a great deal of flow. These two guys make Brooklyn a dangerous underdog here at home vs Utah tonight. Note:Nets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. The Nets are 20-1 ATS L/21 with less than two days rest off a game as a favorite when they are playing a non-conference game with two conference games before after. NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BROOKLYN) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (82 or more shots/game), after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 35% or less are 32-10 ATS L/23 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Brooklyn to cover |
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01-14-20 | Suns v. Hawks UNDER 231 | 110-123 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
Over the last two games the Suns have allowed 94 and 92 points, the first time they've won consecutive games while allowing 94 or fewer since 2015. Considering this is now a recipe for success Im betting they will be paying special attention to being cogent in transition which Im betting sees this game played at slower pace than expected which will result in a combined score that stays on the low side of this total. Phoenix did beat Atlanta 128-112 when the clubs met in Phoenix on Nov. 14, but Atlanta in the past has been vigilant defensively in revenge situations as they are 11-2 UNDER revenging a road loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of just 212.4 ppg going on the scoreboard. The Suns are 2-16-2 UNDER as a dog with less than two days rest after a game as a home favorite in which allowing 50-plus points in the paint with a combined average of 202.6 ppg scored. The Hawks are 3-30 UNDER L/33 at home with less than two days rest off a 10+ loss in a road game in which their opponent shot over 50% from the field with a combined average of 186.4 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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01-13-20 | Bulls v. Celtics OVER 215.5 | 101-113 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
Boston scored 140 points for the second time this season last time out and has reached triple digits in five of its past seven games and my projections estimate the Celtics a team that averages +115 ppg at home this season should score in the +112 point range here tonight at home vs the Bulls that despite of a good defensive performance last time out . Previous to that game the Bulls allowed 111, 118, 123, 116 points respectively . Note: BOSTON is 13-4 OVER when they score 112 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 229.1 ppg scored.CHICAGO is 11-3 OVER when they allow 112 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 226.7 ppg scored. The Bulls are 13-1-1 OVER L/15 as a road dog with rest facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with the combined average of 231.9 ppg going on the board. NBA Teams like the Celtics and Bulls are 15-1-1 OVER L/17 with rest after they had a field goal percentage of at least 50 a free throw percentage of at least 85 with a combined average of 232.5 ppg . NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (BOSTON) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 33-6 OVER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 225.2 ppg going on the scoreboard. Play OVER |
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01-13-20 | Pelicans v. Pistons -1.5 | 117-110 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Coach Alvin Gentry stated that Holiday is more likely to return for Thursday's game, which basically means Monday he wont play as he continues to deal with a strained elbow. Derrick Favors (hamstring) and JJ Redick (hamstring) are both questionable to play. Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram will get added minutes, but they have been far from cohesive and are not reliable starters. I know Blake Griffin is out for the Pistons but here at home vs a banged up Pelicans team that have an edge. The Pelicans are 0-14 ATS /SU l/14 when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a loss as a dog facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s. NEW ORLEANS is 15-26 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DETROIT) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread against opponent hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread are 38-12 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Detroit to cover |
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01-12-20 | Hawks v. Nets UNDER 229 | 86-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
Atlanta is pretty banged up with Trae Young just added to the injury report due to left hamstring pain. He and De'Andre Hunter (foot) are questionable. Bruno Fernando (personal) remains away from the team. It must be noted young had 86 points combined in this L/2 games vs Brooklyn, and with him banged up his offence out-put Im betting will be curtailed if he plays. With Brooklyns Kyrie Irving returning to the floor, it looks like this total has been adjusted upward of where my line projections set at 224, which is a two possession discrepancy. There are just to many injuries for the Hawks to have flow here tonight and Irving despite of a huge emotional lift for his team, will still be restricted minute wise and will take time to blend in again and provide his team with positive offensive flow . ATLANTA is 10-2 UNDER revenging a road loss vs opponent this season are a combined average of 214 ppg. Note: the Hawks are 0-21 UNDER L/21 after at least 1 day rest and having held their previous opponent to less than 40% field goals and 20 fast break points and the Hawks having at least two steals in that game(which was the case vs free wheeling Washington offence last time out) The Nets are 0-11 UNDER L/11 with less than two days rest off a home game facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s with a combined average of 211.8 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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01-11-20 | Lakers v. Thunder +1 | 125-110 | Loss | -114 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Danny Green out, LeBron James out and the hobbled Anthony Davis likely out because this is a back to back . the Lakers will be shorthanded on Saturday and fade material here against a hard working Oklahoma City Thunder side , that would love to put a beating on the Lakers in this spot. |
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01-11-20 | Bulls +4 v. Pistons | 108-99 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Detroit lost a 115-112 overtime decision to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Thursday. Thats not a good omen for Motown covering here as NBA Teams like the Bulls are 12-0 ATS L/12 as a road dog off a loss in which their opponent had overtime. The Pistons have also not had much luck vs the Bulls of late, and have lost all 3 meetings. Pistons are 0-14 ATS /SU when they lost 3 straight vs current opponent and are 0-7 ATS when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent this season. The Bulls are 12-0 ATS L/12 on the road facing an opponent averaging less than 10 offensive rebounds.Casey is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing 16 or more turnovers/game as the coach of DETROIT. Play on Chicago to cover |
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01-11-20 | Pelicans v. Celtics OVER 224 | 105-140 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
The Celtics had a losing streak reach three games for the first time when they fell 109-98 to the Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday. Boston has dropped each of its last two games by double-digit margins, including a 15-point loss to the San Antonio Spurs its last time at home and are now in desperation mode here at home again tonight. With that said, I expect the Green Clovers to come right at the Pelicans and to obliterate their porous D, that ranks 28th in ppg allowed with an all out assault and for the Pelicans to answer back behind their 8th ranked offensive output (113.3 ppg) and 3rd ranked pace and for this total to be obliterated. New Orleans has gone over 7 straight times. NEW ORLEANS is 9-0 OVER after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season with a combined average of 240.2 ppg scored. NBA Teams like the Pelicans are 20-4 OVER L/24 on the road when they are off two games in which more than 65 percent of their field goals were assisted with a combined average of 230 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BOSTON) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 54-17 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. Play on the OVER |
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01-11-20 | Pelicans v. Celtics -9.5 | 105-140 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
The Celtics are in desperation mode and ready to come out here with all guns blazing as they look to attempt to halt their current 3 game losing streak. With True Holiday and Derrick Favours out for the Pelicans today the Clovers have a big edge . The Celtics are 24-1 ATS /25-0 SU as a favorite with rest off a game as a dog after being outscored in the paint by double digit.The Pelicans are 2-18 ATS L/20/1-19 SU as a dog with less than two days rest off a 10+ win in which they had an assist percentage at least 10 better than their season-to-date average. Play on the Boston Celtics to cover |
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01-10-20 | Warriors v. Clippers -13.5 | 100-109 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Defense has been an issue recently for the Los Angeles Clippers. However, they've had four days to work on it before they host the struggling Golden State Warriors and should be very ready to play a shut down game here on rested legs, which to me suggests a blowout situation. The Clippers hammered the Warriors 141-122 on Oct. 24. Rinse and repeat at hand tonight as teams now have a chance to give back some the nasty medicine the Warriors forced on opponents over an extended period of time in the last decade. No Mercy rule in effect. LA CLIPPERS are 8-0 ATS when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 3 seasons. NBA Teams like the Clippers are 19-2 ATS /21-0 SU as a 8+ favorite with more than one day of rest off a game as a favorite in which their opponent shot over 50% from the field with a the average ppg diff clicking in at +17.9 ppg. Play on the LA Clippers to cover |
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01-10-20 | Bucks -8 v. Kings | 127-106 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
Sacramento will be short handed and banged up for tonights game against the explosive Milwaukee Bucks with Richaun Holmes and Bogdan Bogdanovic laready ruled out, while Cory Joseph and Nemanja Bjelica sat out Thursday’s practice due to bumps, bruises and illness. Advantage Bucks as their super star Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected play. The Bucks are 19-1 ATS /20-1 SU as a 8+ favorite with less than two days rest facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws with the average ppg diff clicking in at +22.2. The Kings are 0-16 ATS /0-16 SU as a home dog off a win as a road dog facing an opponent averaging more than 5 blocks per game with the average ppg diff clicking in at -15.8. NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - excellent defensive team (41.5% or less ) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), good rebounding team (+3 to +5.5 reb/game) against an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) are 30-6 ATS L/23 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover |
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01-10-20 | Spurs v. Grizzlies | 121-134 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
This is a young Grizzlies team that is suppose to be rebuilding, but what most pundits are missing is how talented they are and how consistent they have been of late. I know their opponents the Spurs have the bigger names, and respected franchise pedigree but , what they dont have is consistency and work ethic and that is why Im backing the home side tonight to get the cover. The Grizzlies are 11-0 ATS /SU L/11 at home when the line is within 3 of pick after they had a field goal percentage of at least 50 a free throw percentage of at least 85. (Which was the case last time out.The Grizzlies are also 10-0 ATS /SU when the line is within 3 of pick off a game as a favorite after out scoring their opponent in the paint by double digits. The Spurs are 1-16-1 ATS /1-17 SU on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a 10+ win in a road game. Play on Memphis to cover |
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01-10-20 | Spurs v. Grizzlies OVER 230.5 | 121-134 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
Memphis ranks 10th in offence, and 27 in ppg allowed on defence, behind a 3rd ranked pace. Meanwhile. San Antonio ranks 6th in ppg on offence, and 25th in pgg allowed on D, behind the 12 ranked pace. Needless to say the odds are suggesting a fairly high scoring affair here. Question is how many combined points can both teams accumulate here. My answer and projections estimate north of 230 . Note:SAN ANTONIO is 9-1 OVER versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or worse this season with a combined average of 239 ppg scoredAN ANTONIO is 23-9 OVER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 234.4 ppg going on the scoreboard.The Grizzlies are 12-1 OVE$R L/12 facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5 with a combined average 236.9 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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01-10-20 | Heat v. Nets +4 | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
Brooklyns C LeVert is getting healthy again and hes now ready tp play a full game, with no minute restrictions, and Im betting we now see more flow from what was clunky Brooklyn offence . Meanwhile, the Heat are showing themselves to be atop tier team this season, but have had issues against lower tier teams , as was evident by recent losses vs Orlando and Washington . Meanwhile, BROOKLYN is 22-10 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70%or better ) over the last 3 seasons. The Nets are 10-0 ATS when the line is within 3 of pick with more than one day of rest off a home game after a game that was tied 5+ times. The Heat are 0-12 ATS /L/12 as a road favorite off a win after allowing 50-plus points in the paint The Heat are 1-13 ATS /SU when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a win in a road game facing an opponent averaging more than 7 refereed turnovers per game. Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover |
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01-09-20 | Celtics +2.5 v. 76ers | 98-109 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
The Philadelphia 76ers will be severely short-handed for their game against the visiting Boston Celtics on Thursday.All-Star center Joel Embiid will miss the game with a dislocated left ring finger. Meanwhile, Bostons star forward Kemba Walker, who had missed the previous three games with flu-like symptoms, played 18 minutes while on a minutes restriction last time out, and should get more time tonight. Tonight Im expecting a Celtics team with redemption and revenge on mind for two losses in this series earlier this season and two current overall losses to have an edge on a value line. BOSTON is 9-1 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season. BOSTON is 13-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season NBA team vs the money line (BOSTON) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a home favorite are 39-19 SU L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rare for bettors. Play on Celtics to cover |
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01-08-20 | Rockets -8 v. Hawks | 122-115 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
These two teams are operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum. Houston has won 11 of their L/14 SU while, Atlanta has lost 12 of their L/14 overall, and when these teams met earlier this season, the divergence in talent was on full display as the Rockets smashed the Hawks by a 158-111 count. I know Atlanta has revenge on board, but Im betting they dont have the legs to get redemption as they play their 3rd game in 4 nights against a visitor that is fresh and on 4 days rest. ATLANTA is 5-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. NBA Road favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games are 30-1 SU L/23 seasons, with the average ppg diff clicking in at +9.2 ppg which qualify as a positive league wide trends situations when applied to this offered side number. NBA Home underdogs (ATLANTA) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 45-15 ATS L/23 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Houston Rockets Play on Houston to cover |
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01-08-20 | Spurs v. Celtics OVER 220.5 | 129-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Kemba vWalker might be out for the Celtics but they are still capable of getting offensive production from their bench vs a Spurs side that has been defensively challenged this season. Im betting tonight the Celtics will have no choice but to do some running and gunning vs a Spurs side , starting to heat up , and are off a win vs mighty Milwaukee last time out, by a 126-104 count thanks to an uptick in their beyond the arc shooting . SAN ANTONIO is 15-7 OVER versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 231.1 ppg. SAN ANTONIO is 11-2 OVER in non-conference games this season with a combined average 232 ppg scored. The Spurs are 13-0 OVER as a dog for the second straight game with a combined average of 236.9 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 220 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning teams are 37-12 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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01-08-20 | Raptors v. Hornets +3 | 112-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
The Raptors are banged up with a boat load full of injuries and fade material in their current condition and form. Team scoring leader Pascal Siakam remains out with a groin injury. The Raptors were also without Fred VanVleet (hamstring), Marc Gasol (hamstring) and Norman Powell (shoulder) on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Charlotte despite of a overall dismal record has shown some life of late winning and covering 2 of their L/3 and get my support to get us a cover here tonight. The Raptors are 0-15 ATS /3-12 SU off a loss as a favorite in which they led after each of the first three quarters Play on Charlotte to cover |
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01-07-20 | Knicks +13.5 v. Lakers | 87-117 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
The superior team here is obviously the LA Lakers, but it has also become obvious that the Lakers have a tendency of conserving energy and not going full throttle against most of their lesser opponents which is like to resting players. The Lakers have not seen a more than 13 point margin of victory in almost a month spanning 12 games and tonight Im betting the Knicks keep this run alive with a cover . NEW YORK is 8-0 ATS in road games after playing a road game this season ( they are currently playing their 3rd road in a west coast trip) LA LAKERS are 1-10 ATS against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons. LA LAKERS are 7-21 ATS versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Play on the NY Knicks to cover |
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01-07-20 | Wolves v. Grizzlies -3 | 112-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
The Memphis Grizzlies continue to uptrend in my power rankings as they go for their straight win and 9th in their L/15 when they open a six-game home stand against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday. The Grizzlies have momentum and confidence entering tilt behind an explosive cohesive offence that is off an impressive 140-114 rout of the Los Angeles Clippers and followed up by a 121-114 victory over the Phoenix Suns on Sunday. As far as this tilt vs a very banged up Minnesota Wolves team is concerned , that matchup very well here, as is evident by two previous victories in this series this season via a 137-121 home win on Nov. 6, and a 115-107 victory in Minneapolis on Dec. 1. Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here this evening in Memphis vs a Wolves side that has lost 8 of their L/10 on the road. Memphis has won 3 of their L/4 meetings at home in this series and 7 of the L/9 meetings overall . Play on Memphis |
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01-07-20 | Thunder v. Nets UNDER 216 | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City played last night but are well conditioned and Im betting will still have the energy to be physical with the Nets, a team that is suffering offensively of late. This tilt has the ear marking of setting a slower more methodical pace as one team tries to per-serve energy for a-second half surge and the other just trying to right their sinking ship. Note: The Thunder work off the 6th slowest pace in the NBA and 12th ranked ppg allowed D. BROOKLYN is 8-0 UNDER in home games vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 210.7 ppg scored. BROOKLYN is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211.1 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA CITY is 19-4 UNDER on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. The Thunder are 0-23 to the UNDER when the line is within three points of pick and they are off a game in which they allowed 50-plus points in the paint and they are facing a team that has averaged fewer than 55 points in the paint. Play UNDER |
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01-07-20 | Pistons -3 v. Cavs | 115-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
Cleveland is in complete disarray with key starters like Kevin Love not getting along with HC Altman , and the team as whole showing little or no chemistry. Meanwhile, Detroit despite of playing without Blake Griffin are a team, that gets along and plays hard as a unit and Im betting their work ethic gets them to the promised land tonight and provides us with a cover. Pistons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Cavaliers are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games. Cavaliers are 22-51 ATS in their last 73 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. CLEVELAND is 2-11 ATS in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season NBA Home teams (CLEVELAND) - horrible team - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games are 47-93 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Detroit to cover |
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01-07-20 | Pistons v. Cavs UNDER 218.5 | 115-113 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Detroits banged up and on tired legs as they play their 3rd game in 5 nights, and Im betting they will play this game a reduced pace vs a Cleveland team showing less and less offensive cohesiveness of late averaging just 101.2 ppg behind the 23rd ranked pace in the NBA . Note: DETROIT is 16-1 UNDER when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 202.4 ppg scored. DETROIT is 30-18 UNDER in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 213.6 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CLEVELAND) - horrible team - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game, after allowing 105 points or more 4 straight games are 39-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |