Two top starters project to negate any edge on the pitchers mound for wither side. But late inning pitching according to my projections favor the Brewers in a value line offering.

The Dodgers are rolling and up 1-0 in this series vs the Brewers so far grabbing a narrow 2-1 win which came after wrapping up their last series with a 2-1 win. However, winning 2 in a row maybe difficult for them as they have a recent history of faltering in this situation-LA Dodgers on the money line after 2 straight wins by 2 runs or less. are just 2-11 dating back to last season.

Also Milwaukee in home games on the money line after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better are 18-1 this season.

MLB team like Milwaukee - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season-NL, with a tired bullpen - after 2 straight games throwing 6+ innings are 40-10 since 2021 for a a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Brewers

Game 1 home chalk in the divisional round are on a 33-18 SU  and cashed 3 of 4 times last season. MLB sides like LAD  scoring 5 or more runs per game and on  a four-game winning streak are just 135-133  in the next contest dating back 4 season with  -19 % ROI.   LA Dodgers on the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season are 0-7 L/7 .

Play on the Philadelphia Phillies to win

The Yankees finished the season with a league-leading wRC+ of 118 versus right-handed pitching and hold a wRC+ of 115 versus RHP over the last month and its obvious they matchup very well against Bello. Meanwhile, Carolos Rodon the Yankees right handed  starter owns a xERA of 3.32 and 3.89 xFIP and recorded an ERA of 2.61 and an xFIP of 3.63  his final five starts of the reg season and matches up very well vs a Boston team that has struggled against lefties late in the season. With the  desperation of their backs being up against the proverbial wall Im betting on a big night from the Yankees and a comfortable victory.

Play on the NY Yankees to win

The Guardians were able to go 2-2 against Skubal this year, despite of him recording a  0.64 ERA in those games. The guardians have the arms to keep this game close and pull off the value dog upset. 

Cleveland on the money line in September games have won 20 of their L/27 overall.

Play on Cleveland to win

Matthew Boyd is 9-1on the money-line  in home night games since the start of the 2024 season.

Philadelphia is 21-1  as hosts against teams with a  0.560 or less win % with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season (including 12-0   vs teams with a sub .500 record. )

The Phillies have won each of their last 12 home games following a loss.The Marlins have lost each of their last eight night games against NL East opponents following a road win.

Marlins won yesterday but , the Marlins have a history of failing after a big rod win and the Phillies after a loss at home. 

Play on the Phillies to win 

According to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings,  Tampa Bay pitcher  Joe Boyle, who is 1-3 with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 42.2 innings pitched this season does not matchup well here and is fade material vs this sometimes powerful BoSox batting order. Meanwhile, the BoSox send out starter Connelly Early, who is 1-0 with a 0.87 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP over 10.1 innings pitched this year. The kid looks impressive and gets my support here. Note: Early is a southpaw with a 5-pitch arsenal led by a sinker (31%), slider (23%), and changeup (22%). His sinker is elite and hes really has batters in uneasy position. 

The Red Sox have won each of their last six road games against AL East opponents.

The Rays have lost eight of their last nine night games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.

Tampa Bay on the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 7-21.

Play on the Red Sox to win

Mariners  are 10-2  in the last 12 games vs AL Central teams with starting pitcher  Bryce Miller.Seattle on the money line after a 3 game span with an OBP of .393 or better are perfect 9-0 this season.Seattle on the money line after scoring 12 runs or more are a perfect 6-0. Seattle Managers Dan Wilson in road games on the money line after a win by 6 runs or more is a perfect 10-0 L/10.

Play on Seattle to win

NYM starter Holmes, thas seen this San Diego roster with a  .349 batting average, .512 slugging percentage and .414 weighted on-base average (wOBA) in 50 plate appearances. On the flip side , the current Mets  hitters own a ugly .213 batting average, .404 slugging percentage and .309 wOBA through 53 combined plate appearances against the Fathers starter King.

San Diego is 3-0 (+3.2 Units) against the money line versus NY Mets during the current 2025 season and Im betting they get the money again tonight.  

Play on the San Diego Padres to win 

Arizona is 16-5  in the last 21 Home Divisional starts with  Zac Gallen. Giants are struggling offensively and fade material in their current form. 

San Francisco on the money line after batting .175 or worse over a 3 game span are 3-12 L/15. Bob Melvin on the money line after batting .175 or worse over a 3 game span have lost 21 of 28 games.

Arizona to win LATE STEAM 

New York has picked up two huge victories to start this series and I am betting they complete the sweep here. NYY starter Warren,   has allowed two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts and Im betting he leads the surging Yanks to a win.  I know  boSox starter Crochet has been tough on the Yanks  in two of his three matchups versus the Yankees this season, However, it must be noted  they have been one of the most explosive offenses in the league versus left-handed pitching recently.

The Red Sox have lost four of their last five games as home favorites against AL East opponents following a loss.

The Yankees have won three of their last four games as underdogs against AL East opponents.

Play on the NY Yankees

Any team like the NYY with a starting pitcher with recent control issues (more than 2.75 BB's/start), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts is 48-24 since 2021 for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Baltimore's starter Trevor Rogers has  been in top for for  Orioles   since July garnerig  10 out of 11 quality starts in  span. He went 7+ innings in 6 of those starts and  has allowed   two runs or less  in 9 of those trips to the He has  allowed just two HRS to since July and that an important factor vs potent Jays batting order.  the Orioles are hot as is evident by having won 8 of their 9 September games. 

Play on the Os to win 

Orioles are 12-2  with starter Kyle Bradish on the hill  bersus teams with a.470  or less winning percentage in his career.  KYLE BRADISH on the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game has seen his team go 12-1 in his career.

 MLB Home teams - AL team with a poor SLG (.410 or less) against a good NL starting pitcher (WHIP 1.250 to 1.300), cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 5 games are 41-16 since 1997.

Play on the Orioles

The Brewers starter Jose Quintana is 18-4  as a short-line line favorite (-120 to -135)  in the last six seasons  including a perfect  7-0 on the road. JOSE QUINTANA in road starts on the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season. is 10-2 L/12 overall dating back to last season,

Milwaukee on the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs/game in the second half of the season are 11-1 L/12 opportunities.

The Rangers are just 18-35  as a money-line  underdog this season. 

Play on Milwaukee to win

NYY starter Cam Schlittler  is in top form entering this game and has recorded  a 2.61 ERA and has allowed one run or less in four consecutive starts. I know Gausamn has pitched well for the Jays but my pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggest the Yanks have the edge here in the Bronx Zoo tonight.  both teams posses solid offenses but Aaron Judge of the Yanks will be the diff maker- note  reigning MVP leads his team with 152 hits this season and has top tier  career numbers against Gausman with 16 hits over 45 at-bats (.356 BA).

Play on the Yanks 

NYY starter Rodon has allowed two earned runs or less in five straight starts and is in top form entering this tilt. I know Houston has a nice offensive effort yesterday but overall they have averaged just 3.4 rpg since the all star break and Im betting they suffer a letdown effort here tonight vs a Yankees team on a last season mission to make the post season. Yankees have won 8 of the L/9 meetings here in Houston. 

Play on NY Yankees to win 

NYY starter Will Warren is still having ssues entering this tilt.  Dating back to   July he has garnered a   4.75  xFIP  with his  Stuff+  considerably lower going from 104 to 94 . My projections estimate that the Astros matchup well here vs this right hander especially with  Yordan Alvarez back in the lineup . With that said, we have value with the Stros in this situational matchup event. MLB Road teams - good offensive team (5.1 or more runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or less) (AL), with a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start are 42-100 since 1997 for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Astros to win

Top tier  Mets Rookie pitcher  Nolan McLean will make his fourth start of the season today vs the Tigers.  Last time out he threw 8 shutout innings against the Phillies . McLean’s has a  deep arsenal of  above-average stuff and it  has buoyed  him to a 0.89 ERA over his first 20 major league innings of quality pitching,  while allowing just 10 hits and striking out 21 batters over that span. Im betting on him slowing down the Tigers offense, and for the Mets to do enough damage Gipson-long and company to get us to the promised land. 

MLB teams like the tigers when the opening money line is +125 to -125 - starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 0.800 or less over his last 3 starts are 17-44 since 2021 for a 72% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Detroit in home games on the money line after allowing 10 runs or more are 0-5 this season.(Mets win 10-8 yesterday)

Play on NY Mets to win

Luis Morales continues to  impress in his  rookie campaign . In his last start last  week  he threw 7 shutout innings and allowed 2 hits in hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park against the Tigers. He has  only allowed a total of  9 hits  through 20.2 innings and Im betting nothing changes today.

Athletics in away games on the money line after 3 consecutive game versus a division rival are 8-1 l/9 this season.

Play on the As to win

Atlantas right hander starter Waldrep has been great for the Braves so far with a limited sample size of 5 games but this is a step up in class to what he has faced before (Marlins twice, White Sox, Guardians,  Reds).The Phillies own a top-10 batting  lineup against righties. On the flispide Luzardo remains serviceable, and he now gets to face a Atlanta side ,  that grades 6% below league average with a 94 wRC+ vs southpaws. Ill take the Phillies here to get more production that expected from Waldrep and cement the victory.

Play on the Phillies

Chris Sale will make his return on Saturday from the 60-day IL after fracturing a rib while diving during a game back in June. He pitch count will be limited, but my projections estimate he will be cannon fodder for this sometimes explosive Phillies batting order. On the flipside, Im betting a rebound performance from mr consistency Cristopher Sanchez. He gave up 6 runs last time out, but that was an anomaly, as his pitch quality data was still viable.

Play on the Philadelphia Phillies to win

Torontos starter  Shane Bieber is a bankroll expanding  19-2   against teams with a  .600 or better win pct dating back 6 seasons. 

Toronto in home games on the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season are 19-4 this season.Toronto in home games on the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.0 or less runs/game on the season are 9-0 this season.Toronto in home games on the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.0 or less runs/game on the season are 17-4 this season.

Play on Toronto to win

The Mets own a  23-6 record at home against the Phillies in their last 29 home games, including a perfect  9-0 run . Going to ride the hot hand of the Mets as Im betting they take game 3 in this series.

Play on the NYM to win

Atlanta will send  Hurston Waldrep (4-0, 0.73 ERA) to the hill to face the Marlins and  andMiami will reply with Sandy Alcantara (7-11, 6.04 ERA). Waldrep has allowed 1 earned run or less in all four starts this season and gives the Braves an edge on the hill. Alacantra went against Braves  a week or so aga and allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings  losing by 8-6 count. Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here this evening in south Florida.

Play on the Braves

These teams are playing at the opposite end of the performance spectrum with the Angles having lost 5 of their L/6 and the Rangers having 3 straight and 4 of their L/5. Based on home field advantage and current form and the fact the  Rangers are  11-1  in the last 12 games as a -144  or more favorite with starter Jacob deGrom  the edge goes to Texas.

- MLB Road teams like LAA - after 5 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base, with a tired bullpen - after 3 straight games throwing 4+ innings are77-143 sinde 1997 for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas

Twins starter Ryan has pitched well this season  and  has been his best on the road, where he has garnered a  2.44 ERA and allowed a stingy .198   batting average.The Twins have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs against the Blue Jays following a road loss.The Blue Jays have lost four of their last five games as favorites against AL Central opponents following a road loss.

Play on the Twins 

The Guardians are not in good form, and are struggling mightily.  The underdogs have won four of the Guardians’ last five games at Progressive Field.Cleveland in home games on the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season are on 0-5 run!

Play on the Tampa Bay Rays

The Padres won last night, but it must. be noted that the Dodgers have won nine of their last 10 games against NL West opponents following a road loss.Meanwhile, the  Padres have lost four of their last five night games against the Dodgers following a win.

Tyler Glasnow goes to the hill for the  Los Angeles Dodgers, and he is 1-1 with a 3.12 ERA and 72 strikeouts this season. Glasnow is 0-0 with a 2.79 ERA and 35 strikeouts in his career against the San Diego Padres. Teams are batting just .179   batting average vs Glasnow. Meanwhile, Cortes goes for the Padres. Hes been sub par this season,  recording a bloated  5.87 ERA and 1.65 WHIP and is fade material vs this explosive Dodgers batting order.

NESTOR CORTES on the money line when playing on Saturday has seen his team lose his L/6 starts.

Play on the LA Dodgers 

Braves starting southpaw Wentz has been in top form in his last two starts, allowing just 2 earned runs in 11.1 innings . The Mets are only hitting .227 against lefties this season  ranking 24th in MLB and have the edge here tonight vs a team they have beaten 7 of 10 times this season. With the Braves off a day off , they look like the more viable side vs a Mets team that played. Note: . Rested home chalk entering play off a day off are 71-29 this season on the moneyline.

Play on the Braves to win 

The Yankees and the BoSox are playing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum of late with the Yankees having won 5 straight and 7 of their L/8 overall and Rays having lost 7 of their L/10 and 2 straight. With the Bronx crew getting healthy again and Aaron Judge in the lineup they have the guns to keep motoring here as they are in pursuit of the Blue Jays for top spot in the division.

NY Yankees in home games on the money line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) are 6-0 this season.

Play on the NY Yankees

The Yankees are starting to heat up and have won 6 of their L/7 and 4 straight games, and have momentum entering this  tilt against the Tampa bay Rays a side that has allowed 20 runs in their l/2 games. With Yankees starter Cam Schlittler  in peak performance mode lately  allowing  two earned runs or fewer in 3 straight start starts the Yankees look like a viable betting option. Yes, I know Rays starter Rasmussen is a top tier hurler , but the way this NYY team is seeing the ball right now makes them hard to bet against, and instead riding their momentum is the best option. 

Tampa Bay on the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 3-18 L/21.

The Rays have lost each of their last six night games against teams that held a winning record.

Play on the Yankees to win

Charlie Morton will get the start for Detroit this afternoon vs Houston. He had a quality start last time out  allowing just 2 hits in 6 shutout innings against the Twins on Friday.  However it must be noted that Morton has not seen momentum from previous top tier starts continue as a 3-14 team record would indicate after allowing 1 run or less in a previous outing. Meanwhile Framber Valdez  will go to the hill for the Astros. The southpaw has struggled in Aug so far, but hes a solid hurler with great bounce back capabilities and deserves respect and has won his only previous road start vs the Tigers since the 2023 campaign posting a 1.29 ERA in 7 solid innings of work .In 3 overall career starts vs Motown on the road he owns a 2.45 ERA. After getting shutout in losing the first two games of this series, the Astros will primed to salvage a win here . Desperation is the name of this game.

Houston to win 

 The St.Louis  Cardinals will start lefty Matthew Liberatore (6-10, 4.08 ERA) and the Marlins will return fire with righty Eury Perez (5-3, 3.58 ERA). Perez has looked good lately and has pitched his best at home where hs has garnered a  2.08 ERA . Since the game opening steady money from sharp bettors has flowed in on the Marlins . Note:Non-division home chalk on the opening line  -150 or less off a win receiving line movement in their direction are 88-49 for a  14% ROI this season.MATTHEW LIBERATORE on the money line vs. an NL team with a slugging percentage .400 or worse in the second half of the season is 0-6 L/6 overall. ( Team record)

Play on Miami

The Blue Jays have won each of their last 11 games at Rogers Centre against AL West opponents that held a losing record. Meanwhile, The Rangers have lost 11 of their last 12 road games against AL East opponents that had. .500 record or better. Texas has lost 8 of their L/9 and are fade material in their current form. Both teams are playing at opposite end of the proverbial performance spectrum with the Jays solidly a momentum play. I took thr Blue Jays yesterday and Im going to back them again.

Play on the Jays

The Blue Jays have won each of their last 10 games at Rogers Centre against AL West opponents that held a losing record. Meanwhile, The Rangers have lost 10 of their last 11 road games against AL East opponents that had. .500 record or better. Texas has lost 7 of their L/8 and are fade material in their current form. Both teams are playing at opposite end of the proverbial performance spectrum with the Jays solidly a momentum play. 

Play on the Jays

The Twins are  8-3 as a +100 or worse underdog playing as hosts  with starter Bailey Ober  the L/4 seasons.Twins are also  5-0  at home vs Detroit Tigers with starter Bailey Ober the L/4 seasons. Contrarian action here as sharp money keeps this line from exploding to far upward even with Cy Young award candidate Skubal on the hill for the Tigers. 

Play on the Twins 

Red Sox starting pitcher Walker Buehler owns a  5.40 ERA this season while allowing, 4.1 walks, and 1.7 home runs allowed per nine innings. His numbers on the road really show a divergence in consistency as he has garnered a bloated 6.52 ERA . Meanwhile, Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown has recorded a  2.51 ERA  and a over powering  10.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Add to that he is backed by  by a 4th ranked relief corps has recorded a solid 3.35 ERA. The pitching edge goes to the Astros as does the motivational factors that have the Astros out looking for immediate revenge after last nights 14-1 loss. Note:Houston on the money line revenging a home blowout loss vs opponent of 12 runs or more are 12-1 since the 2023 season.

Play on the Houston Astros

The Rangers opened their three-game set against the Diamondbacks with a close come from behind  7-6 walk-off win in extras innings on Monday. Im now betting on the Dbacks to bounce back after that ugly letdown that saw them blow a 5-0 lead. Pros don't like to be embarrassed and this Arizona crew will be on a mission. 

Play on Arizona to win

Blue Jays starter v starter Jose Berrios is not in good from as is evident by garnering  (4.60 xERA, 4.34 xFIP, 12.5% K-BB, 93 Pitching+, 4.70 botERA). Berrios is also 10-25  in night games as a short favorite within a line range of -120 to -145 in the L/6 seasons. He is fade material in his current form.Chicago Cubs on the money line after a loss by 2 runs or less which was the case yesterday are `17-3 L/20.Chicago Cubs on the money line after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games have proven resilient this season winning 15 of 17.

Play on the Cubbies

Cavalli’s got some great stuff, and pitched a strong 4 plus innings last time out. However, that  performance may have been outliner , as his minors record that saw him garner a  6.09 ERA over 15 starts in Triple-A Rochester suggest hes still not ready to over power big league hitters. Meanwhile, the Royals send lefty B Falter, who improved to 5-0 with a 2.23 ERA in 36 1/3 innings over nine appearances (six starts) against Washington with a dominating performance on April 16. Im betting on Falter to slow down the Nats, a team that has only won 3 of their 11 games overall including going 1-8 previous to their recent 2 game win streak. BAILEY FALTER on the money line against NL East opponents. has seen his team win 15 of his L/18 starts. Washington on the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game have lost 22 of 29 this season.

Play on the Royals 

The Cubs on Sunday will start left-hander Shota Imanaga (8-4, 3.12 ERA),.

The Cubs are 17-3  as a favorite versus NL opponents with starter Shota Imanaga dating bqck to last season  are  26-6  against teams with a  .570  or less win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since Last season. Also SHOTA IMANAGA on the money line vs. an NL team with a slugging percentage .390 or worse on the season is 14-1 L/15 ( team results)Imanaga earned a 3-0 victory over the Cardinals on June 26, shutting  them  out for five innings on one hit and one walk while striking out three. He is is 2-0 with a 2.41 ERA in three career starts against St. Louis and matches up well here giving one of baseballs most explosive offenses the edge over Cards starter  Sonny Gray and company 

Play on the Cubs to win

Adrian Houser is 17-5  in his L/ 22 day game starts.  ADRIAN HOUSER starts against AL West opponents his team is 6-0 L/6. ADRIAN HOUSER starts when his team is off a loss is a perfect 9-0 . His team lost yesterday.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 - after 2 or more consecutive losses, in August games are 77-55 since the 2021 campaign.

Play on the Rays to win

 Host sides have swept the L/8 games in the interleague series between the Rangers and Phillies. Rinse and repeat on tonights agenda. Texas in home games on the money line in the second half of the season are 13-2.

Play on the Rangers 

 Marlins Eury Perez (2.70 ERA, 50 IP) will go against  against  Braves Carlos Carrasco (5.68 ERA, 38 IP). Advantage on the mound goes to the Marlins. 

Atlanta in home games on the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) are 1-8 L/9.

MLB sides  playing in the first game of a new series on the road (Miami) and coming off a victory where they scored six or more runs and not more than -175 favs are 360-305 for more than +52 units dating back 3 seasons.  

Play on Marlins

  Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara has garnered a  6.36 ERA and has allowed at least four runs in four of his L/6 trips to the hill in the starters role. .He is backed by a bullpen that has a 5.40 ERA over the last week of action. I know the Marlins are off a sweep of the Yanks, this past weekend but that puts them in a vulnerable letdown spot this Monday. Note:SANDY ALCANTARA team record in home starts on the money line when his team is off 3 or more consecutive wins is just 1-11 L/12 opportunities in this situational spot.For you older guys, there was a song by Boomtown Rats band back in the late 70s that was called , ( I Dont like Mondays) With that said, the Marlins might be subliminally mimicking that sentiment - as they are 4-26 L/28 Monday games. Houston is 5-1 against the money line versus Miami since the 2023 season.

Play on the Houston Astros to win

 Orioles send righty Brandon Young (0-5, 6.63 ERA) and the Cubs will fire back with  their own right hander Colin Rea (8-5, 4.25 ERA). Advantage Cubs. Also Chicago Cubs on the money line after a loss by 2 runs or less are 15-2 this season.

Play on the Cubs

The Twins traded some key pieces of their lineup at the trade deadline, but top tier starter Joe Ryan remains, and gets the start today. (Ryan is 10-5, 2.82 ERA) on the season. Despite of Ryans quality stats he has seen his team lose 4 of his L/5 starts vs the Guardians, and with a decimated lineup and some PTSD symptoms associated with the drastic moves the Twins look to be at disadvantage. 

Play on the Cleveland Guardians to win 

Last nights crazy back and forth affair that saw 23 runs scored in a 12-11 extra innings win for the Braves is now behind us and the Reds are now looking for immediate redemption and Im betting they get it.  MLB road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 - a bad team (38% to 46%) playing a team with a winning record, playing on Friday are just 97-176 for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Atlanta on the money line in day games are just 12-24 this season. Atlanta on the money line after scoring 8 runs or more is 2-11 this season. .

Cincinnati on the money line after a game where their bullpen blew a save are 12-1 .

Cincinnati on the money line with double revenge - 2 straight losses against opponent are 22-7 this season.

Play on the Reds to win

The Rays, are 8-19 in their past 27 games and are fade material in their current form. The Rays are 2-for-20 with runners in scoring position in the series. With their  starter Littel having  allowed 18 of his 26 homers on the road, and lefties blasting him  for  a .563 SLG the  Yankees look like viable bets as they  have some tough southpaw batters, and Im betting they make him suffer tonight. Tampa Bay on the run line vs. an AL team with a slugging percentage of .450 or better in the second half of the season are 1-9 this season.

Play on the NYY to win

The Chicago Cubs will send All-Star left-hander Matthew Boyd (11-3, 2.20 ERA) to the hill vs their host Milwaukee Brewers, who will send All-Star right-handed rookie Jacob Misiorowski (4-1, 2.45) to the mound.

Standout rookie Jacob Misiorowski gets the start for Milwaukee tonight and Im betting despite of being limited to maybe 5 innings or less, will be dominant during his time on the hill. Misiorowski is making his first appearance against the Cubs. He has 40 strikeouts in his first six starts covering 29 1/3 innings and projects well here vs this aggressive cubs batting order.

Boyd, owns a horrific 9.95 ERA in 12 2/3 innings over three career starts versus the Brewers.

Milwaukee is 34-19 at home this season and this is where they play their best baseball, allowing an average of just 3.5 rpg which is 0.7 less than on the road. Advantage Brewers in game 1 of this series. Milwaukee on the money line vs. NL teams scoring 5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season are a perfect 6-0.

MLB Road teams like the Cubs when the money line is +125 to -125 - NL team with a high slugging percentage (.430 or better ) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or less), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts are just 53-112 since the 1997 season for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB teams like the cubs when the money line is +125 to -125 - NL team with a high slugging percentage (.430 or more) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or less), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts are 94-168 since 1997 for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Brewers to win

The Rangers will send Jack Leiter (6-6, 4.27 ERA) to the mound, against Bryce Elder (4-6, 5.63 ERA) for the Braves.

Texas in home games on the money line in the second half of the season are now 11-1 and overall they have won 11 of their L/14 games and are one of baseballs hottest teams. Texas is 33-20 at home this season, and have won the first two games of this series vs the Braves and get the nod again behind J Leiter on the hill.   Texas has a 3.18 team ERA that leads all MLB pitching staffs.

The Rangers are 35-17 in games they were favored on the moneyline (winning 67.3% of those games).

This season, Atlanta has won three of its 19 games, or 15.8%, when it’s the underdog by at least -100 on the moneyline. Atlanta is 18-33 on the road this season.

The Atlanta Braves have only hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 103 games (-40.63 Units / -26% ROI)

Play on the Texas Rangers to win

Brewers starter  Woodruff is 4-0 with a 2.53 ERA in five career starts vs. Miami and gets the nod again here at home where the Brewers play thier best baseball. Brewers a allow just 3.5 runs per game at home  (-0.7 better than on the road). I know the Brewers have not played well this weekend vs the Marlins, in the 25th anniversary of old Miller Park, and Im betting their avoid the sweep here today.Milwaukee on the money line after having lost 3 of their last 4 games are 37-13 L/50.

Play on the Brewers to win

The Braves are a road train wreck as is evident by their 18-32 road record and are  15 games out of the NL East lead,  and 11 out of the final NL Wild Card spot. I have zero confidence in this team changing course soon. On the flip-side the Rangers are a top tier home side, with a 32-20 record as hosts, and have the edge here again tonight, vs Braves righty Grant Holmes (4-9, 3.81 ERA). . With the Rangers starter Rocker in top form since being recalled from Triple A  Round Rock the Rangers look like the right side. He  has surrendered more than two runs just once during that span.The Rangers are 10-3 L/3 and get the nod here again in game 2 of this series.

Play on the Texas Rangers to win 

The Rangers have won three straight games -- and five of their six since the All-Star break and Im recommending we ride their momentum here this evening vs the visiting Braves behind the arm of Evoldi who produced 94 strikeouts in 91 innings over 16 starts this season. 

Play on the Rangers to win

Orioles starting pitcher Charlie Morton owns a bloated 5.58 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 4.2 walks per nine innings this season and he been particularly problematic on the road as is evident by a  6.81 ERA while allowing  1.5 home runs per nine innings.He a definite disadvantage here vs the Guardians who will start Logan Allen who has been serviceable this season garnering a 4.07 ERA. In three career starts against the Orioles, Allen is 2-0 with a 3.45 ERA.My pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggest Logan should do well vs the 27th ranked road offense of the Os that average just 3.7 rpg. The Guardians hurler also has the benefit of having - closer Clase waiting to clean up . the reliever has registered 18 saves in 20 chances with a 1.38 ERA in 32 games.Morton lost to Allen and the Guardians on April 15, when he permitted five runs on seven hits in five-plus innings. The Guardians have won 11 of 13 contests since July 7 and deserve respect here a short favs. 

Baltimore in away games on the money line against AL Central opponents are 1-11 this season.

Cleveland on the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) are 24-6 L/30 opportunities.

Play on Cleveland to won

GeGrom (9-2, 2.32 ERA) will start this  Tuesday against fellow right-hander J.T. Ginn (1-2, 4.91). The Rangers are a perfect 10-0  in their L/ 10 games as a -144 favorite or more  with  Jacob deGrom starting. FeGrom is 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA in four lifetime appearances against the Athletics anf get the nod here again tonight.Ginn is 1-0 with a 5.00 ERA in two career starts against the Rangers and is fade material according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings. 

Play on the Tex Rangers to win 

The Pirates  11-2 as  favorite/pick ‘em (-135 to -110 line range) with starter Paul Skenes  starting dating back to last season.The NL CY Young front-runner leads the MLB with a 2.01 ERA and Im betting he goes long here today and helps his team grab the victory. On the flip side,  veteran right-hander Flaherty  has recorded a 4.65 ERA and 4.36 FIP and allowing 1.70 HR/9, which is another career-high. I know the Pirates bats are not trust worthy, but they can do damage here according to my power rankings. Note: Pittsburgh in home games on the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are a perfect 7-0 L/7 opportunities.

Play on Pittsburgh to win

 Washingtons stater today vs the Padres-  Mitchell Parker  is a complete funk of late allowing 16 runs in his last two starts and 44 hits in his last 6 overall trips to the hill.  Parker is 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA in two career starts versus the Padres. Im betting he gets lit up here today again, and the Padres get enough support from their starter Darvish and the bull pen to notch a victory.

The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.90 Units / 71% ROI)

Play on the Padres

The Cardinals are 15-4 in Gray 19 starts in this current campaign. He is backed by bullpen with a 3.80 ERA. Gray is 5-2 with a 2.64 ERA in his last 10 starts, even after giving up six runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 6-0 loss at Milwaukee on June 12.

Pirates starter  BAILEY FALTER in home starts on the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season has seen his team win his L/7 starts.

Chi White Sox on the money line off 2 straight home losses against division rivals are 0-15 L/15 opportunities which is the case here . (They lost their L/2 before the all star break to Cleveland)

The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 28 games at home (+11.35 Units / 36% ROI)

Play on the Pirates to win 

Zach Wheeler (13-5, 2,25 ERA)the Phillies starter is off a one hitter and looking strong this season, and on the flips side we have Yu Darvish on the hill who makes just his 2nd start of the season. Im betting on Wheeler shutting down the Padres, and the Phillies explosive offense doing damage and get the win .YU DARVISH in home starts on the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse is 1-7 since 2023.

Play on the Philadelphia Phillies to win

Rays starter SHANE BAZ on the money line vs. division opponents has seen his team win 11 of his L/12. MLB starter GARRETT CROCHET on the money line at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 has seen his team lose 16 of the L/21 . I know the Red Sox are on nice winning streak but all good bad runs must come to an end. 

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 53-35 since 2021 for a 60% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Rays to win

Pirates will put Paul Skenes (4-7, 1.94 ERA) on the mound tonight  and the Twins  will send Joe Ryan (8-4, 2.76 ERA) to the hill .

  Pittsburgh on the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better are 0-9 this season.

Pittsburgh in away games on the money line after batting .225 or worse over a 5 game span are 2-16 6his season.

, Pittsburgh in away games on the money line when playing against a team with a losing record are 1-11 this season.

My projections estimate the Pirates have the edge. both these teams missed the play offs last season    and when thats the situation  the home Inter-league chalk is a bankroll exPANDING  62-33  for a 65% conversion rate.

Play on the Minnesota Twins 

The Cubs' offense is rolling and they rank top five in home runs and walks, as well as team wRC+, OPS, as well as  stolen bases. In the last 30 days they  are the No.1 team in Home runs and must not be under estimated in their ability to deliver a win here tonight against the Yankees. note" NY Yankees on the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season are just 107 this season.Chicago Cubs in away games on the money line vs. excellent power teams - averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game are 7-1 since last season. With the Cubs sending Flexen to the hill they really have a money-line edge according to my projections. Flexen has pitched the most innings in the league and allowed the least amount of runs. Opposition bats are struggling against him with a .175 BA  . The offering screams value. 

Play on the Cubs 

These two teams are playing at the opposite end of the proverbial performance spectrum.

 The Rays send  Taj Bradley (5-6, 4.79 ERA) to the hill while  the Red Sox turn to put  Walker Buehler (6-6, 6.25 ERA). on the hill.  Buehler  has matched up well against the Rays this season in two meetings . He went  5 innings and  allowrf 2 earned runs in a 7-4 victory and than went 7 innings and allowing 3 earned runs in a 4-3 win and once again gets my support here for the trifecta.

Red Sox are  8-2 L/10 while batting  .328 with a 3.20 ERA.Boston is hitting .272 at home, 2nd best in MLB. On the flipside the   Rays are   3-7 L/10 while, hitting .264  along with a bloated  4.55 pitching staff ERA . 

MLB  below average AL hitting team like TB (AVG or less.265) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or better ), hot hitting team - batting .290 or better over their last 20 games are 11-30 since 2021.

Boston in home games on the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season are 9-2 L/11 opportunities.

Play on Boston to win

Cardinals right-hander Andre Pallante has  allowed just two runs in 18 innings over his last three starts and gives his team an edge here tonight. 

Home favorites in the second game of a series after winning game one are 106-60 for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. (Cards took game 1 )

Saint Louis on the money line vs. a team with a terrible bullpen whose ERA is 5.20 or worse is 10-1 L/11 opportunities.

Play on the Cards ( LATE STEAM)

The NYY will send righty Cam Schlittler to the hill to  make his MLB debut for the Yankees tonight. Hew as a deep 7th round pick in the  2022 draft, But has constantly graduated up the proverbial ladder in the Yankees  system before getting in 5 starts in Triple-A this season. The prospect has alot in his arsenal  of pitches and in particularly throws scary four-seamer. He garnered a  2.82 ERA over 120 innings in the minors this year and looks to continue his success in this spot vs the Mariners tonight. Im back ing him to go deeper than the pundits expect. 

Play on the NY Yankees to win 

Athletics starting pitcher  Jeffrey Springs has recorded a  4.07 ERA with a 4.77 fielding independent, while giving up 1.5 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings. When he leaves this game which Im betting he does he is  backed by a bullpen that has garnered a nasty  5.73 ERA which ranks  29th in all of MLB. My projections estimate that he does not matchup well here and that the value resides with the short road chalk. Note: The Athletics vs. NL teams allowing 4.0 or less runs/game on the season are 4-9 this season.

Play on the Braves to win

 Tampa Bay has the best  in MLB with a 134 wRC+ since June 15 ans overall  lead the league with a .299 BA average and rank third with 20 stolen bases, Meanwhile,  Detroit owns a .266 average this season and three stolen bases. From my perspective they are more dynamic offense and have the edge here today. With the Rays sending Baz (8-3, 4.33 ERA) out to the hill the edge gets even bigger. Last time out he threw eight scoreless innings against Kansas City with nine strikeouts and is in top form. , SHANE BAZ on the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 has seen his team go 8-0 in his L/8 opportunities. SHANE BAZ on the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season is 6-0 dating back to last season.

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 - off 3 straight wins vs. division rivals, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts are 21-47 dating back to 1997 for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Rays to win

Its been 7 straight wins for the Blue Jays and Im going to ride their momentum here today and pay the extra juice. Sunday home chalk taking on a visitor  who missed the playoffs the previous season are 64-29   with a 12% ROI this season for a 69% conversion rate . Add to that  Toronto is  20-9 with a 16% ROI as a home chalk and you have a viable looking wager here .  

Play on the Blue Jays 

 LAD starter Ohtani In 13 career starts against Houston, owns a. sub par  3-6 record  with a slightly bloated  4.01 ERA, the worst of any team he has started against at least three times. Here against Astros bats that  are in top  gear  even without  Yordan Alvarez Im betting on another sub standard start . Houston ranks fifth in wRC+ over the last two weeks, averaging  .277 average and   .175 Isolated Power and get the edge here as road dogs for the 2nd straight night. Houston in road games on the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 39-15 dating back to the 2023 season.The Astros will answer with left-hander Framber Valdez (9-4, 2.72 ERA). Valdez garnered his second consecutive scoreless outing when he went six innings at home against the Chicago Cubs in a 2-0 win on Sunday.The Astros have gained  a victory in each of Valdez's last 10 starts.  Valdez has gone 8-0 in the stretch with a 1.72 ERA during that stretch and give the Astros an edge. 

Play on the Astros to win 

Brewers starter Priester recorded  a 1.98 ERA in five June starts, with his team going  a perfect 5-0 in those tilts. Meanwhile, Alcantara despite of being talented has not looked viable this season  recording a 3-4 record along  with a 5.03 ERA at home.SANDY ALCANTARA on the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 is 0-7 since 2023. ( Team record) I know the Marlins have been hot but this is a bad spot for them. The Brewers are 27-18 as a favorite this season ranking , 3rd   MLB.

Play on the Brewers to win

The Thursday pitching matchup features a pair of right-handers: Miami's Eury Perez (0-2, 6.19 ERA) against Minnesota's David Festa (2-2, 5.40). Marlins starter Perez is finally looking healthy and increasing his pitch count after being off last season. Right now  Perez appears healthy, throwing his fastball over 100 mph on various occasions. 

Miami on the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) are 8-1 this season.

Minnesota on the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season has lost 16 of 24 games, Minnesota in away games on the money line after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base are 4-16 dating back to last season.Minnesota in away games on the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite are 1-7 this season.

Play on the Marlins to win 

The Diamondbacks go for three straight wins against their National League West rival this Wednesday evening in Phoenix and Im betting they get it. Dbacks starter Kelly (7-4, 3.49) posted a 2.79 ERA over five starts in June matches up well here vs Giants Roupp who has made two relief appearances in his career against the Diamondbacks, recording a bloated  a 4.76 ERA without a decision.

MLB Home chalk like Arizona  coming off a tilt  in where they hit 4 or more home runs 331-167 L/5 seasons for a  67% conversion rate for ,more than 43  units of profit. 

San Francisco in away games on the money line after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games is 2-11 L/13 overall .San Francisco in road games on the run line vs. a team with a terrible bullpen whose ERA is 5.20 or worse are 6-26 since 2023.

Play on Arizona 

Dbacks righty starter Gallen goes against another righty, Hayden Birdsong (3-2, 4.13), who is winless in his past four starts. . He has struggled  in his past three trips to the hill , where he has allowed 14 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings of sub par work. I know Gallen has not looked like a top tier hurler this season, but he is still a strong pitcher who can easily take on a up and down SF batting order. 

San Francisco in road games on the money line after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games are 2-10 this season.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 - poor hitting team (AVG .250 or less) against a poor starting pitcher (ERA 5.70 or more ) -NL, with a cold starting pitcher- ERA 7.00 or more over his last 3 starts are 33-9 since 1997 with a 79% conversion rate.

Play on Arizona to win

KCs starter Lorenzen recorded a 6.31 ERA in five June starts and is  2-5 with a 5.68 ERA on the road this season. He is fade material here vs a Seattle side, that sits as  -130 plus favs. Note: Home chalk -130 to -150 playing an opponent who made thepost season in  the previous campaign are 50-27  with a 12% ROI this season. 

Play on the KC Royals to win

Scherzer (0-0, 5.63 ERA) is scheduled to start the opener of a four-game series vs the Yankees. The 40-year-old right-hander no longer looks like the all star pitcher he was during most of his career and is fade material here in this spot play. Scherzer is 4-5 with a 4.25 ERA in 12 career starts against the Yankees. Meanwhile, his is opposed by Carlos Rodon (9-5, 2.92) who is off 6 scoreless inning outing last time out against the Reds and has momentum entering this tilt.

Im betting the Yanks bats, take advantage of Jays  bullpen  that is overworked . In the past two games starter Chris Bassitt went two-plus innings in his start on Saturday and Eric Lauer went 4 1/3 innings in his Sunday start.

NY Yankees in road games on the money line after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more earned runs are. perfect 6-0 L/6 overall.

Play on the Yankees to win

Detroits starter Gipson-Long owns a  3.00 ERA at home  this season and matches up well here according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings. Meanwhile,  Twins starter Festa is in a funk as is evident by garnering a nasty 10.00 ERA in four June starts, allowing 20 earned runs in 18 innings of sub par work. The right has also recorded a  12.27 ERA on the road this season and is fade material in his current form. Detroit has cashed  23 of 32 games this season as home chalk with a 13% ROI anda re 34-16  with a 16% ROI against sides who missed the post season the previous year.  Detroit on the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game are 14-2 L/16 opportunities.

Play on Motown to win

San Diego starter Dylan Cease goes to the hill  in Cincinnati this evening to face the Reds.   Cease has only allowed 3 runs or more  in 2 out of 16 starts, during this campaign. His strikeout data has been off the charts and despite of a limited array of stuff seems to be in a big time groove. Meanwhile, Nick Martinez the Reds starter is better out of the bullpen than a starter according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings. He is 0-3 with a 6.89 ERA in three career starts against the Padres and is fade material here this evening according to my projections.Cincinnati saw its three-game winning streak come to a halt with a 7-1 setback to the New York Yankees on Wednesday and Im betting with that negative regression continuing-in game 1 of this series. 

Play on the San Diego Padres

  Lefty hurler  Dietrich Enns will make his first MLB start since 2021 on Thursday for the Tigers. Its been  3 years since he went to Japan and South Korea leagues. The soutpaw has been in top form in AAA this season as is evident by garnering s strong 2.89 ERA over 62 innings spanning 14 starts. Im betting he holds down the ship today and helps his Mortown crew to a win. Detroit has won 9 of 14 vs AL west opp this season.

Play on the Tigers 

Bosox send righty  starter  Fitts (0-3, 4.71 ERA) to the hill vs the Halos this afternoon. He took the loss when Los Angeles beat host Boston 7-6 on June 2 and Im once again betting he has negative results here today. He recently before being recalled last weekend - gave up seven earned runs on 15 hits in 12 innings for Worcester.  RICHARD FITTS on the money line in all games is 0-9 dating back to last season. ( Team record)

Meanwhile, southpaw Yusei Kikuchi (2-6, 3.01) is Los Angeles' probable starter Wednesdayand according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings matches up well here vs this version the Red Sox.

The Red Sox have lost 4 straight and are fade material in their current form. Angels have won 3 of their L/4 overall.

The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 41 games (+13.50 Units / 30% ROI)

Play on the Angels to win 

 The Atlanta Braves  will send  Spencer Schwellenbach (5-4, 3.26 ERA) and the Mets will reply with Paul Blackburn (0-1, 6.92 ERA) both right handers.The Braves pitching staff owns a  3.13 ERA over their L/10 games while the Mets pitching staff a garnered a bloated  5.95 ERA during the same span. Atlanta is 6-2 in Schwellenbach’s last eight starts and deserves respect here in the favorites role. 

Both teams are currently playing at the opposite end of the performance spectrum with the Braves winning 7 of their L/10 while the Mets have lost 8 of their L/10 overall. 

Road chalk like the Braves off a loss and made the post season the previous season are 68-39 for a 64% conversion rate.

The Braves are a perfect  3-0 vs t the Mets this season and get the nod again. 

NY Mets after scoring 1 or less runs in a loss to a division rival which was the case last time out, have seen an average rpg diff of -4.

Play on the Atlanta Braves

The NY Mets send lefty David Peterson (5-2, 2.60 ERA) to the hill and the  Phillies respond with another left hander  Jesus Luzardo (6-3, 4.41 ERA). My pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggest Luzardo has the edge based on a algorithmic trend chart that use . Note" The Phillies are batting .261 versus  southpaw pitching ranking  6th in MLB. The Mets rank   (15th) vs left handers along with a sub standard .238 BA.

Sunday Night Baseball home chalk like Philadelphia  are good bets going  176-99 for a 64% conversion rate dating back 15 seasons. 

 Home favorites like the Phillies who made the post season the previous season playing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous season are 78-40   with an 11% ROI  for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.   

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 - allowing 4 or less runs/game on the season (NL) against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- ERA 7.00 or more over his last 3 starts are 42-18 sine 2021 for a 70% conversion rate.

Play on the Philadelphia Phillies

The Reds are the only team in MLB that hasn't been swept this season. Yesterday they blew a big lead to the Cards and lost 6-5. But today Im betting they keep on top of things with a strong pitcher Abbott on the hill for them today. The Reds right hander  (6-1, 1.84 ERA)  this season, and after using 8 relievers yesterday is the perfect starter for them in the finale.ANDREW ABBOTT on the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 is a perfect 7-0 when he starts this season.

Cincinnati on the money line after a game where their bullpen blew a save are 7-1 L/8. Cincinnati on the money line with double revenge - 2 straight losses against opponent are 14-3 L/17.

Meanwhile, Miles Mikolas (4-4, 4.35) is expected to get the start for the Cardinals he is  is 6-8 with a 5.53 ERA in his career against Cincinnati (22 appearances, including 20 starts), He should be left out even if he gets beaten around as the Cards have a tired bullpen and will be looking ahead to massive 4 game series with the Cubs this week.

The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+6.15 Units / 43% ROI)

Play on the Reds to win

The Braves just swept the Mets and enter this game with lots of momentum after a slow start their campaign. Atlanta has won 7 of their L/10 overall and deserve respect in this current form vs a Miami side that is just 5-5 L/10  Braves start right-hander Didier Fuentes is a viable pitcher despite this being his MLB debut and is part of a pitching staff that has garnered a solid 2.83 ERA over their L/10 tilts overall. 

Miami on the money line after 4 or more consecutive home games are 2-14 L/16 overall.

MLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 - excellent fielding team - averaging or less 0.5 errors/game on the season against opponent terrible defensive catchers - allowing 1 or more SB's/game on the season are 100-37 since 1997 for a 73% conversion rate.

Play on the Atlanta Braves

The Mets send out  righty Clay Holmes (7-3, 2.87 ERA) and the Braves will reply  with  RH Spencer Strider (1-5, 4.35 ERA).. I know Striders numbers are tilted toward the Mets starter but my power rankings suggest Strife4r marches up well vs the Mets.The Braves are  10-1  in the L/ 11 Home Divisional starts by Spencer Strider.

 Home chalk  that  made the post season in  the previous campaign playing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous season are 74-37 with a 12% ROI with a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Also home favorites -130 to -150 playing an opp that made the playoffs are 45-23 with a 14% ROI for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Braves 

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Stephen Kolek owns a  3.50 ERA while allowing  one home run per nine innings . My power rankings are expecting even more positive regression from him even here against an explosive Dodgers lineup. He has garnered a 1.75 ERA in 36 innings of work on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Dodgers send starting pitcher Emmet Sheehan to the hill. He is making his first MLB start since 2023 , and has never shown alot of consistency when he did pitch garnering a 4.92 ERA. Im betting the Padres do enough damage here to get the win on the moneyline. Im depending on Kolek to stay hot. 

The Milwaukee  Brewers will send  Chad Patrick (3-6, 3.25 ERA) and the Cubs return fire with  Ben Brown (3-5, 5.71 ERA). My own pitcher vs power rnaking suggest positive and negative regressionary scenarios for each pitcher giving the home side the edge.  

The Cubs are 35-14  returning a massive 15% ROI as a chalk this season, ranking No,.1 as favorites in  MLB.

Both teams are coming off wins and when this happens  the home favorites are 37-17  with a 12% ROI and when both sides   are coming off a day off, chalk is a impressive 72-39  for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. 

The last time these teams met the the Brewers won- Chicago Cubs on the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite are a perfect 6-0 L/6 opportunities.

MLB Home teams - team with a good SLG (.430 or better) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.250 or less) -NL, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 5 games are 49-16 since 2021.

Padres starter Dylan Cease (2-5, 4.28 ERA) go to the hill against the explosive   Dodgers  offense who. will  start Shohei Ohtani, who will be  making his 2025 debut. Its been wince 2023 since Ohtani pitched. That season with the  Angels, he garnered a  10-5 record along  with a 3.14 ERA.

Note: Cease is 0-3 with a 5.65 ERA on the road this season aand is fade mg3rail once again according to my power rankings. 

LA Dodgers games vs. a team with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities are 8-1 this season.

MLB Home favorites like the Dodgers  who made the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who also made the post season the previous camoaign are 69-37 for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. Both these teams are coming off a victory and when that happens the home chalk  is 35-16 with a 12% ROI for a 69% conversion rate for money-line bettors. .

Astros starter Hunter Brown has recorded a 1.82 ERA with 10.6 strikeouts and 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings so far this season and has allowed one or less runs in nine of his last 11 trips to the hill. Meanwhile J Ryan is also a vialbe pitcher but not in the same top form as Houstons hurler Brown. Add to that Minnesota bullpen has looked atrocious during the last week garnering a 9.64 ERA. 

Minnesota has lost 6 of their L/8 and the Astros are heating up having won 3 in a row.

MLB Home teams - team with a poor OBP (.320 or less) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP1.300 or less) -AL, starting a pitcher who walked 4+ hitters each of his last 2 outings are 51-28 since 1997.

Play on the Astros

Padres right-hander Stephen Kolek (3-1, 3.00 ERA) will face Diamondbacks right-hander Ryne Nelson (2-2, 4.60) in the series opener Friday. My pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggest the Dbacks have the edge even though Kolek has been in top form dating back to May 27th start. Note: The Diamondbacks are hitting .260 against right handing pitching like Kolek ranking 3rd in MLB. 

Home favorites -130 to -150 playing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season are 41-22  with a 13% ROI for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 - below average hitting team (AVG .255 or less) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or less) -NL, with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last 3 games are 56-16 since 2021.

Play on the Arizona Dbzcks to win

NYY send right hander  Will Warren (4-3, 5.34 ERA) to the hill tonight and the Royals send out  righty Seth Lugo (3-5, 3.46 ERA).  note: SETH LUGO vs. teams averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game is 0-6 L/6 (team record) with the average rpg diff clicking in at -3.5.

The pitching matchup is fairly even, but the offense the Yanks is far superior to that of their opponents. The Yanks are  hitting .273 on the road which ranks first in the all of MLB .The Yankees are 39-20  in the chalk role this season for a 66% conversion rate for their betting backers and are  32-14  as a favorite against non-division opponents for. a70% conversion rate. The Yanks won the first two games of this series a favs and get the nod again here in the third meeting. MLB Road teams - very good offensive team (5.4 or more runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA. 3.50 or less ) (AL), with a struggling bullpen whose WHIP is over 1.750 the last 10 games are 53-26 since 1997.

Bubic is a reliable hurler for the Royals but the Yanks smash left handers regularly as is evident by a   hitting .271 vs LHP this season. The Yankees  have the edge here tonight and are 38-20  as a favorite this season for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. NYY is also 31-14   as a favorite against non-division opponents with a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the NYY to win

NY Mets starter GRIFFIN CANNING on the money line after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing are a perfect 6-0 L/6 team record. Lets ride his momentum .

MLB Home chalk like the NYM coming off a game in where they hit four or more home runs are viable investment options dating back  5 plus campaigns, going 325-164 for a 67% conversion rate. 

MLB favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 - below average hitting team (AVG .255 or less) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or less) -NL, with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last 3 games are 55-16 since 2021.

Play on the Mets to win

Philadelphia are in a funk as is evident by a 1-9 L/10 record  while  hitting .189 with a 6.01 ERA .I know the Phillies starter  Zack Wheeler has been a top tier hurler so far this season, but  his last trip to the hill  on May 29,  saw him give up six runs to the Atlanta Braves and after taking parental leave could find himself a little rusty .With that said, Im betting on a Chicago team that lost yesterday by via a 4-0 shutout to to the tigers  bounce back with positive regression. It must be noted that the Cubs are 18-4   following a loss this season for a 48% Return on Investment . 

Play on Cubs 

The Cubs will start  Horton today vs the Tigers . Chicago is 5-0 in his L/5 starts  this season. The righty hurler has allowed 3 earned runs or less in all five starts, and has recorded a solid  3.07 ERA on the road to this point in the campaign. Meanwhile, the Tigers will start  righty Jack Flaherty (4-6, 3.72 ERA) who my power rankings suggest the Cubs matchup well against. Note: Rod pups of plus money 120 or less off a victory like the Cubs have been good bets this recently  going  30-23  along with a 17% ROI  since the first of May. Also the cubs are 9-2 vs a  team slugging percentage .410 or worse on the season (AL).

Play on the Chicago Cubs to win

The White Sox  took last nights series opener  7-2 as money-line dogs and once again offer value against a team that they matchup well against. Todays pitching match up features right hander is Royals  Michael Wacha (3-4, 2.88 ERA) and the White Sox starter Adrian Houser (1-1, 1.47 ERA). Both hurlers are equal in my power rankings , and the value runs with the home side who have momentum entering this game against a side that does not do well in the favorites role s as chalk of -125 to -175 recording just one win in 7 opportunities this season. Note: White Sox when an underdog of +100 to +150 at home have won 11 of 19 games.

Play on the Chicago White Sox to win

Following the largest ninth-inning comeback victory in team history, the Arizona Diamondbacks are in a let down spot and vulnerable to coming out flat here tonight. 

Dbakcs send left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez to the hill , he is coming off the 15-day injured list to start the game and also vulnerable . 

MLB team like Arizona - with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 5 games, with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP 2.000 over his last 5 starts are 9-31 since 2021.

Play on the Reds to win

Orioles right-hander Zach Eflin (4-2, 4.46 ERA) threw seven scoreless innings his last time out against the Chicago White Sox and has momentum entering this game vs the Seattle Mariners. I know B Woo has been solid for Seattle this season, but early season power rankings suggest he does not matchup well vs this version of the Orioles offense. 

MLB favorites like Seattle with a money line of -125 to -175 - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent, a marginal winning team (51% to 54%) playing a bad team (38 to 46%) are 14-28 since 2021. MLB Road underdogs like Baltimore with a money line of +125 to +175 - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 49-33 since 2021. MLB Teams like Baltimore  on winning runs of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 155-119   since the start of the 2021 season. MLB teams  like the Orioles on winning streaks of five games or more and are under 5.00 on the season are 66-53   in their last 119 opportunities  to extend streaks.

Play on Baltimore to win