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Alex Smart CFL Sides Picks
Date Match Up Rating Score Result Profit Lead Time Analysis
11-16-25 Montreal +3.5 v. Saskatchewan 17-25 Loss -110 6 h 1 m Show

As the 112th Grey Cup kicks off Sunday, at Princess Auto Stadium in Winnipeg, the Saskatchewan Roughriders (12-6) enter as -190 moneyline favorites and -3.5 point chalk against the Montreal Alouettes (+160), with the total pegged at 48.5. Saskatchewan punched its ticket with a gritty 24-21 comeback over the BC Lions in the Western Final, powered by Trevor Harris’ 305 passing yards and a defense that forced three turnovers while holding opponents to a league-best 22.6 points per game. Yet sharp bettors are fading the public money that has steamed the Riders from -1.5 to -3.5, leaning instead on Montreal’s proven pedigree as underdogs—covering in seven of their last ten in that role and riding rookie sensation Davis Alexander, who remains undefeated at 13-0 lifetime as a starter.

The Alouettes may have scraped by Hamilton 19-16 in the East Final, but their top-ranked secondary (341.9 passing yards allowed per game) is tailor-made to blunt Harris, and Alexander’s dual-threat mobility can exploit Saskatchewan’s aggressive front seven. CFL playoff history backs the close-call narrative: seven of the last ten postseason games have been decided by six points or fewer, while Saskatchewan’s kicker Brett Lauther has missed crucial field goals in three of their defeats, injecting late-game volatility. Montreal also boasts a 4-1 ATS mark on the road following a bye, and their clock-chewing run game sets up a grind-it-out tempo that has sent both teams’ recent playoff outings under the total.

That defensive tone screams value on the under 48.5, especially with the combined semifinal and final outputs tallying just 80 points. Still, the sharpest edge lies with the Alouettes +3.5 (-110). At a neutral-site key number of 3, Montreal gets too much cushion for a battle-tested squad projected to fall 26-23 in a one-score affair. Take the Alouettes to cover and consider the under as a correlated parlay leg—both trends point to a low-scoring, razor-thin Grey Cup classic.

08-09-25 Ottawa +3 v. Toronto 46-42 Win 100 5 h 46 m Show

The Toronto Argonauts (2-6) host the Ottawa Redblacks (2-6) on Saturday afternoon. The Argos are 1-3 at home and 1-3 within the East Division and Im betting if they get the win tonight it wont come easily and with said Im taking the points with Ottawa. 

Home favorites like Toronto - poor rushing team (4.6 or less YPR) against a team with an average rushing defense (4.6 to 5.7 YPR) are just 3-18 ATS since 1996.

Play on Ottawa

08-02-25 Hamilton v. Edmonton Elks +3.5 28-24 Loss -109 14 h 42 m Show

The Edmonton Elks (1-5) will host the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (5-2) at Commonwealth Stadium this Saturday. 
 
The Ti Cats are in a big let down situation after coming from behind vs BC last week and could be vulnerable here to being upset. Edmonton will have No.1 Draft pick in 2024, Joel DuBlnako on defense and will also welcome back Robbie Smith back ( who is the highest paid defensive player in the league) that added defensive toughness will make the Elks difficult to deal with this Saturday in Northern Alberta. 


Note: Edmonton record since the 2023 season in August games is 7-0 (100%) ATS with an average line of +3.6.


CFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points llike Edmonton - off a loss against a division rival against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 44-17 ATS since 1997 with the average ppg diff clicking in at -2.2 ppg.


Play on Edmonton to cover

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