The Peach Bowl on January 9, offers a compelling rematch between the No. 5 Oregon Ducks and No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, with Indiana installed as 4-point favorites and the over/under settling at 46.5 after dipping from an opening of 48.5 due to sharp action anticipating a grind-it-out affair. This total reflects the elite defensive units on both sides, as Indiana ranks fourth nationally in EPA per play allowed (-0.261) and has held 12 of 14 opponents under 20 points this season, while Oregon sits fifth in the same metric (-0.200) and just blanked Texas Tech 23-0 in the Orange Bowl quarterfinal. Their October regular-season clash, a 30-20 Indiana road win, totaled 50 points but stayed under similar projections despite offensive talent, with both teams struggling on the ground, Indiana at 3.0 yards per carry and Oregon at 2.7, highlighting vulnerabilities that could resurface indoors where weather isn't a factor but playoff pressure amplifies conservative play-calling.

Betting trends strongly favor the under here: Oregon games have hit the under in four of their last six, including the shutout victory, while Indiana's suffocating defense has pushed seven of their last nine to the low side, particularly as favorites where they're 7-2 ATS under coach Curt Cignetti in spreads of 3.5 to 10 points. Statistically, Indiana leads the nation in EPA per play (0.293) offensively but showed inefficiency against Oregon earlier, with Heisman-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza throwing for just 215 yards, one touchdown, and an interception amid a game script that limited explosive plays. Oregon's Dante Moore, a potential top draft pick, was picked off twice in that matchup, underscoring turnover risks against Indiana's opportunistic secondary, which ranks top-10 in forcing inefficiencies on early downs and third/fourth-down conversions. Additional angles include Oregon coach Dan Lanning's 0-2 straight-up and ATS record as a neutral-field underdog, often resulting in low-scoring affairs, and Indiana's net field position edge (17th nationally at 3.65 vs. Oregon's 23rd at 2.82), which shortens fields and reduces big-play potential.

My simulations , averaging around 46 combined points and aligning with broader CFP trends where bye-week teams (like Indiana here) have struggled offensively in quarterfinals, losing by an average of 15.3 points in the 12-team era while contributing to unders in defensive battles. Despite public bias toward overs in marquee rematches featuring quarterbacks like Mendoza and Moore, who could be the top two picks in the 2026 NFL Draft, the controlled dome environment and high stakes favor stops over fireworks, making the under 47 a high-value contrarian bet, especially if the line creeps to 47.5. Indiana's unbeaten run (14-0) and dominant wins like 38-3 over Alabama underscore their ability to dictate pace, but against an Oregon team fresh off a defensive masterclass, expect a chess match that stays low-scoring and sends the Hoosiers to the title game

As the 2025 college football season wraps up with bowl festivities, the Armed Forces Bowl pits the Texas State Bobcats against the Rice Owls in a rematch that screams offensive fireworks, at least from one side of the field. Scheduled for Friday at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas, this matchup features Texas State as heavy favorites, with spreads ranging from -14.5 to -16.5 across major sportsbooks. But while the side might tempt bettors chasing a blowout, the real value lies in the total, specifically the over 55 points. Texas State's explosive offense, combined with Rice's porous defense, sets the stage for a game that could easily eclipse this number, even if the Owls struggle to keep pace.

Texas State enters with a 6-6 record, but don't let that fool you,this is a team that's far more potent than its win-loss suggests, ranking 24th nationally in scoring offense at 36.1 points per game. Led by dual-threat quarterback Brad Jackson, who threw for 3,049 yards and 18 touchdowns while rushing for 692 yards and 16 scores, the Bobcats boast a top-10 EPA per play offense that thrives on big plays and efficiency. Running back Lincoln Pare adds balance with 1,023 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, while wideout Beau Sparks has hauled in 80 receptions for 1,113 yards and nine scores, tying a program record for catches in a season. The Bobcats have scored 30 or more points in 10 of their 12 games this year, a mark tied for the most in school history, and they've closed strong with three straight wins, including a 49-26 dismantling of South Alabama. Betting trends back this up: the over has hit in five of Texas State's last seven outings, reflecting their ability to turn games into track meets regardless of the opponent.

On the flip side, Rice's defense has been a sieve all season, allowing 32.3 points per game (115th nationally) and ranking dead last in explosive plays surrendered, with a dismal 118th in EPA per play allowed. The Owls limp into this bowl with a 5-7 record, having dropped their final two games by lopsided margins, including a 52-3 shellacking at the hands of South Florida. While Rice's offense ranks a lowly 119th in scoring at just 19.8 points per game, their games have trended toward higher totals lately, averaging 56.9 combined points over the last eight contests compared to 42.6 in the first four. The over has cashed in four of their last six, often thanks to opponents feasting on that vulnerable unit. Add in potential absences, starting QB Chase Jenkins is out, and key skill players like WR Drayden Dickmann and RB Daelen Alexander may sit, and Rice could struggle offensively, but their defense is unlikely to contain Texas State's attack.

From a betting angle, this rematch harkens back to the 2023 First Responder Bowl, where Texas State torched Rice 45-21 for a total of 66 points, showcasing the Bobcats' dominance in a similar postseason setting. Texas State's defense isn't elite, allowing 30.6 points per game (102nd), which could allow Rice to chip in enough garbage-time scores to push the total north. Public money is leaning toward Texas State on the spread, but sharp bettors are eyeing the over as the smarter play, especially with no major opt-outs for the Bobcats and a neutral-site venue that favors up-tempo offenses.

In a bowl season filled with unpredictable motivation factors, this one's straightforward: Texas State's high-octane unit against Rice's leaky defense spells points.

As the Music City Bowl approaches on December 30, 2025, bettors are eyeing the total points line as a tantalizing secondary wager in the matchup between the Tennessee Volunteers and Illinois Fighting Illini, set for a 5:30 p.m. ET kickoff at Nissan Stadium in Nashville. With the over/under sitting at 61 , a number that reflects the explosive potential of both offenses but overlooks some defensive resilience—the over presents intriguing value, especially considering Tennessee's track record under head coach Josh Heupel in tightly lined games. The Volunteers have leaned toward high-scoring affairs in contests with spreads between +3 and -3, posting a strong tendency for overs, while their overall 8-4 over/under record this season underscores an offense that's consistently pushed games into shootout territory. Illinois, meanwhile, has contributed to overs in 7 of their 12 games, often thanks to an efficient passing attack that exploits weakened secondaries, setting the stage for a neutral-site clash where points could pile up quickly.

Delving deeper into the betting angles, Tennessee's offense ranks among the elite, averaging 40.8 points per game and sitting in the top 25 for EPA per play at 0.151, driven by quarterback Joey Aguilar's dual-threat capabilities and a tempo that wears down defenses. However, their defense, ranked 81st in points allowed (28.8 per game) and 107th in points per quality drive (3.93), has shown vulnerabilities, particularly against balanced attacks like Illinois'. The Illini counter with a respectable offense at 29.3 points per game (63rd nationally) and a 50.9% quality drive rate (23rd), powered by Luke Altmyer's 68.1% completion rate and low turnover profile. With both teams missing key defensive pieces—Tennessee without edge rusher Joshua Josephs and linebacker Arion Carter, and Illinois sans sack leader Gabe Jacas (11 sacks), explosive plays become more likely, as evidenced by Tennessee's six games this year featuring totals of 60+ points, splitting 3-3 over/under. This weakened pass rush dynamic favors the over, aligning with broader bowl trends where high totals have cashed in 60% of games involving top-25 EPA offenses so far this postseason.

From a trends perspective, Tennessee's 66.7% over rate this season jumps out, particularly in non-conference spots under Heupel, where the Vols are 16-4 ATS overall but often see games eclipse projected totals due to their up-tempo style. Illinois adds fuel with a 7-5 over/under mark, including overs in four of their last six against Power Five foes, and their defense allowing 23.3 points per game (47th) could struggle against Tennessee's pace if early drives extend possessions. Opt-outs amplify this angle: Tennessee's absences in the secondary and front seven, combined with Illinois' injuries to safety Matthew Bailey, create mismatches ripe for big plays, as seen in recent bowls where depleted defenses have led to overs hitting at a 65% clip. The neutral venue in Nashville, just a short drive from Knoxville, might boost Tennessee's crowd energy, but Illinois' motivation for a ninth win, marking back-to-back nine-win seasons for the first time in program history, adds intangible push for an offensive showcase.

The Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl in Tucson this Saturday, features a high-octane clash between the North Texas Mean Green and San Diego State Aztecs, where the over 52.5 stands out as a prime wager amid North Texas favored by -6. North Texas leads the nation in scoring at 44.8 points per game, driven by quarterback Drew Mestemaker's FBS-leading 4,129 passing yards and an offense that ranks top-10 in yards per play (6.9). Trends scream points: the over has hit in nine of North Texas' last 12 games, and their contests average 68.2 combined points against non-conference foes. San Diego State, while defensively sound (24th in red-zone efficiency), has seen the over cash in five of their last six December outings, thanks to a balanced attack averaging 28.4 points on the road. Betting angles include North Texas' 6-1 ATS run in their last seven games, but a dismal 2-6 ATS in recent bowls suggests vulnerability if San Diego State (4-1 ATS in last five) forces turnover, the Aztecs rank 15th with 25 takeaways. My projections estimate 58 combined points, hitting the over in 62% of simulations, with the line ticking up from 52 amid sharp over action. North Texas' pace (second-fastest in FBS at 24.8 seconds per play) could overwhelm San Diego State's secondary, which allowed over 250 passing yards in four losses. For added value, correlate with North Texas team total over 30.5, as they've exceeded that in eight straight wins.

Play on the over

As the 2025 college football bowl season heats up, one matchup stands out for totals bettors: the SERVPRO First Responder Bowl pitting the Florida International Panthers against the UTSA Roadrunners on December 26 at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas. This game features two teams from the American Athletic Conference that have shown flashes of offensive firepower but glaring defensive vulnerabilities, particularly exacerbated by opt-outs and injuries. The current over/under line sits at 59.5, a number that sharp analysts believe is undervalued given the personnel issues and recent scoring trends for both squads. Expect a shootout where points come early and often, making the over the premier totals wager in this slate of games.

FIU enters with a 7-5 record, marking their first bowl appearance since 2019 and a step forward under head coach Willie Simmons. Offensively, the Panthers average 29.3 points per game, ranking 61st nationally, driven by a potent rushing attack led by Kejon Owens, who racked up 1,298 yards and 11 touchdowns at 6.3 yards per carry. Quarterback play has been a carousel due to injuries, with Keyone Jenkins (1,693 passing yards, nine touchdowns) dealing with a groin issue and Joe Pesansky (919 yards, nine touchdowns) nursing a foot injury, though both are expected to suit up. Wideout Alex Perry adds explosiveness with 816 receiving yards and nine scores, helping FIU generate big plays despite ranking 104th in offensive EPA. However, the real angle here is FIU's defense, which allows 27.8 points per game (80th nationally) and has been decimated in the secondary. Three of their five starting defensive backs—safety Jessiah McGrew (four interceptions, 68 tackles), cornerback Mister Clark (three picks, 16 pass breakups), and cornerback Victor Evans III (42 tackles),have entered the transfer portal and will sit out the bowl, leaving the unit extremely shorthanded against passing attacks. This group already ranks poorly against the run (105th in rushing success rate allowed) and gives up explosive plays, surrendering the third-most yards before contact in the FBS at 2.87 line yards. Against a UTSA offense that thrives on the ground, these absences could lead to chunk gains and quick scores.

On the flip side, UTSA limps in at 6-6, but their offense has been a bright spot, averaging 33.8 points per game (29th nationally) behind quarterback Owen McCown's efficient arm (2,695 yards, 27 touchdowns, 67.7% completion rate) and a dynamic backfield duo of Robert Henry (1,045 yards, nine touchdowns) and Will Henderson III (807 yards, four scores). The Roadrunners' offensive line ranks 29th in line yards and 34th in pressure rate allowed, enabling an EPA/rush mark of 43rd nationally and consistent explosive plays. Defensively, though, UTSA is a mess, conceding 29.6 points per game (92nd) and allowing 34 plays of at least 30 yards this season. Head coach Jeff Traylor has openly stated his team will be a "shell of themselves," projecting absences of 10-20 players due to opt-outs, injuries, and transfers, including six or seven defensive starters. Key losses include defensive linemen Chidera Otutu (2.5 sacks), Kenny Ozowalu (three sacks), and Daemian Wimberly (1.5 sacks), plus secondary pieces like cornerbacks KK Meier (five pass breakups) and Davin Martin, and safety Jimmy Wyrick (61 tackles, eight pass breakups),all via the portal and unavailable. Injuries to linebacker Vic Shaw and safety Jermarius Lewis further thin the unit, setting up FIU's offense—despite its inconsistencies,to exploit mismatches, especially on third downs where UTSA struggles in early-down EPA allowed.

Betting trends scream value on the over. UTSA has gone over the total in six of their last seven games, averaging 37 points scored in that stretch, while cashing the first-half over in six of those contests for a 62% ROI. FIU isn't far behind, hitting the over in three of their last four outings, including games where they scored 34 or more points. Both defenses rank in the bottom half nationally in points allowed, and with the depleted secondaries and front sevens, expect offenses to dictate the pace. UTSA's ground game could carve up FIU's run defense (which allowed 7.4 yards per carry in a similar matchup earlier this year), while FIU's big-play potential through Owens and Perry should keep drives alive against UTSA's leaky coverage . Im projecting a combined-final score around 37-28 or higher, pushing well past 59.5, and garbage-time points in a non-competitive fourth quarter could inflate the total further.

In a bowl season filled with motivational questions and roster flux, this game's defensive attrition creates a perfect storm for overs. While UTSA holds the edge on paper with a tougher schedule and superior metrics, the focus for bettors should be the total. Lock in the over 59.5 as your top totals play of the day and it's backed by stats, trends, and the harsh reality of these patchwork defenses.

As the college football bowl season rolls on, all eyes turn to the tropical paradise of Honolulu for the 2025 Sheraton Hawaii Bowl, where the California Golden Bears (7-5) clash with the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (8-4) on Christmas Eve at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, the latest odds list Hawaii as a slim 1.5-point favorite, but the real value lies in the total, pegged at 50 points across major sportsbooks. This matchup pits two pass-heavy offenses against defenses that have shown vulnerabilities, setting the stage for a potential shootout under the island lights. While the spread has flipped from an opening Cal -3.5 to favor the home team due to sharp money on Hawaii's territorial edge, savvy bettors should however, zero in on the over as the premier wagering opportunity, backed by explosive trends, statistical mismatches, and unique game angles.

Both squads enter this bowl with offenses built around freshman quarterbacks who have lit up scoreboards late in the season, providing ample ammunition for an over bet. California's Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, a Hawaii native making a homecoming appearance, has been on a tear, amassing 3,117 passing yards with 17 touchdowns against nine interceptions overall, but his last three outings tell the story of a rising star: 922 yards, zero picks, and a standout 330-yard, four-touchdown masterpiece against ranked SMU in the finale. The Golden Bears rank 24th nationally in passing yards per game at 270.8, leaning heavily on aerial attacks given their dismal 136th ranking in rushing (just 76.5 yards per contest). On the flip side, Hawaii's Micah Alejado has thrown for 2,832 yards and 21 scores in 10 games, powering an offense that sits 11th in the FBS with nearly 290 passing yards per tilt and averages 28.5 points overall. The Rainbow Warriors have cranked up the volume recently, dropping 31 or more points in six of their last eight games, including blowouts over Stanford and San Diego State at home. With both teams ranking outside the top 100 in rushing yards, Hawaii at 128th, these one-dimensional, air-raid styles could lead to quick-strike drives that inflate the scoreboard, especially in a bowl environment where defenses often loosen up.

Defensively, the numbers scream vulnerability, further tilting the scales toward the over. Cal's unit ranks a middling 43rd in dropback success rate and 58th in total defense, allowing explosive plays through the air that Alejado is primed to exploit. Hawaii, while solid at 51st in total defense and 40th against the run, has struggled against competent passing attacks, getting torched 38-10 by UNLV in their lone matchup against a top-tier aerial foe. The Rainbow Warriors' 58th-ranked scoring defense (23.5 points allowed) looks respectable on paper, but Cal's recent surge, averaging over 30 points in wins against Louisville and SMU, suggests Sagapolutele's hot hand could carve them up. My own projections reinforce this: which s, leans heavily toward the over hitting in the low to mids 50s forecasting a back-and-forth affair where offensive efficiency trumps conservative play-calling. Neither team boasts a shutdown secondary, Cal sits 33rd against the pass, but Hawaii's 12th-ranked passing offense could overwhelm them in the tropical humidity.

Betting trends provide even more fuel for the over fire, particularly when dissecting recent form and historical bowl data. Hawaii has seen the over cash in four of its 12 games this season, but that jumps in their high-output stretch, where six of the last eight exceeded expectations with 31+ points scored. Cal's contests have averaged totals 4.4 points below this line, yet their last three games all featured combined scores pushing toward the high end, with the SMU thriller ending 38-35. Historically, the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl has been a points paradise: In 21 editions, the winning team has scored 30 or more in 18 games, and one side has reached 41+ in 12 outings, underscoring the event's reputation for offensive fireworks amid the festive atmosphere. Over the last four years, the over has hit in three of them, including a 72-point explosion in 2019's 38-34 thriller. Broader bowl trends favor overs in non-CFP matchups like this, where motivation dips for spreads but offenses shine in neutral-site spectacles. Home teams in bowls have a 23-16 ATS mark over the last 24 seasons, but for totals, the island vibe often leads to relaxed defenses and extended drives.

Unique angles amplify the over's appeal, starting with the short layof,both teams last played in late November, minimizing rust and allowing offensive rhythms to carry over. Sagapolutele's Hawaiian roots add a motivational boost, potentially elevating Cal's attack in a "homecoming" narrative that could inspire big plays. Opt-outs are minimal, with no major absences reported for Cal's key defenders, but whispers of fatigue in the Golden Bears' secondary could open doors for Hawaii's pass game. Hawaii's 6-1 straight-up and ATS record at home this year, including upsets over Power Five foes, suggests they'll push the pace early, but Cal's turnover-forcing prowess (top-10 in interceptions and fumbles) might create short fields for quick scores. Factor in the bowl's history of lopsided margin,eight of nine from 2008-2016 decided by 15+ points, but recent editions have trended toward competitive, high-scoring affairs that reward over bettors.

In a game where spreads are razor-thin and with offensive stats pointing to aerial dominance, defensive stats exposing cracks, trends favoring points in paradise, and angles like motivation and minimal disruptions aligning perfectly, the over 50 point offering on the total stands out as the best bet for this holiday showdown. Expect a festive 38-31 type final, cashing the over and delivering value in what could be one of the bowl season's most entertaining tilts.

The Myrtle Beach Bowl kicks off the Friday slate with a clash between the Kennesaw State Owls and the Western Michigan Broncos, set t in Conway, South Carolina. This matchup pits two run-first teams against each other, which often leads to lower-scoring affairs as the clock ticks away with ground-and-pound strategies. Western Michigan has leaned heavily on its rushing attack all season, averaging nearly 45 carries per game, ranking them among the top in the nation for rush attempts. Kennesaw State isn't far behind, knocking on the door of 40 rushes per contest, a trend that has defined their transition to FBS play. This shared emphasis on the run game suggests a methodical pace, limiting explosive plays and keeping possessions long perfect conditions for an under bet.

Digging into the trends, Kennesaw State's offense has struggled to put up points consistently, averaging just over 20 per game against tougher competition, while their defense has shown flashes of solidity in forcing three-and-outs. Western Michigan, meanwhile, has a similar profile: a reliable ground game but passing inefficiencies that cap their scoring upside. Bowl games in December often feature conservative play-calling, especially for teams like these without playoff implications, and the coastal venue could introduce weather variables like wind or chill that further suppress offenses. The total sits at 47.5, but given both squads' tendencies to grind out yards rather than air it out, the under feels like a strong angle here. Experts note that Western Michigan can engage in shootouts to a point, but against a run-stuffing Owls front, expect this to stay in the low 40s or below. Back the under 47.5 as the best bet for a game that prioritizes control over fireworks

the Old Dominion Monarchs and South Florida Bulls presents a classic postseason scenario rife with uncertainties. Both teams finished the regular season at 9-3, showcasing solid defenses that could dictate a low-scoring affair. With kickoff set for Wednesday, December 17, at Camping World Stadium, the total is hovering around 52.5 points, a number that feels inflated given the disruptions on both sides. Bettors looking for value should lean heavily on historical trends and situational angles that point toward a grind-it-out game rather than a shootout.

Digging into the trends, Old Dominion has been a bettor's dream for unders lately, cashing the under in their last five games with an impressive +5.00 units and 91% ROI. This isn't surprising considering their defense ranked among the top 20 nationally in EPA per play allowed and surrendered just 19.5 points per game overall. On the flip side, South Florida's defense isn't far behind, allowing 23 points per contest and holding opponents under 24 in three of their final four outings. While the Bulls boasted a top-10 offense in yards per play (7.19) during the year, that unit is now severely compromised. Key opt-outs, including starting quarterback Byrum Brown who entered the transfer portal, force journeyman Gaston Moore into the spotlight, a move that often leads to conservative play-calling and fewer explosive plays. Old Dominion faces similar issues with quarterback Colton Joseph opting out, handing the reins to freshman Quinn Henicle, whose inexperience could exacerbate a run-heavy approach against a Bulls defense that's top-15 in passing success rate allowed.

From an angles perspective, coaching instability adds another layer of caution for high-scoring expectations. South Florida is operating under interim head coach Kevin Patrick after Alex Golesh and offensive coordinator Joel Gordon departed for Auburn, disrupting the continuity that fueled their elite offense (top-10 in EPA per play and 73.9% red-zone touchdown rate). Old Dominion, by contrast, maintains an intact staff under Ricky Rahne, which could help their stout defense (4.79 yards per play allowed, top-20 explosiveness prevention) exploit the Bulls' makeshift setup. Bowl games with quarterback absences and staff changes historically trend toward unders, as teams prioritize ball control and field goals over risky downfield shots. Moreover, Old Dominion's over/under record sits at 4-8 for the season, while South Florida's 7-5 over mark was inflated by games against weaker defenses, something ODU doesn't provide. The neutral-site venue in Florida might favor USF slightly as a pseudo-home game, where they've won their last 11 as favorites, but with both offenses projected to score under 25 points each, the total feels primed to stay low.

In summary, this Cure Bowl screams defensive battle, with trends like Old Dominion's under streak and angles such as dual QB opt-outs making a compelling case for limited scoring. Shop around for the best line, but locking in the under 52.5 at -110 offers strong value in what could be a 24-20 type slog.

As the 125th edition of the storied Army-Navy rivalry unfolds on December 13, at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, bettors are eyeing a classic low-scoring affair that has defined this matchup for nearly two decades. With Navy entering as a 6-point favorite and the total set at a modest 38.5 across major sportsbooks the under emerges as a compelling sharp play, backed by a confluence of historical trends, stylistic matchups, and situational angles that tilt heavily toward a grind-it-out defensive battle rather than a fireworks display. Navy's 9-2 record and explosive offense under quarterback Blake Horvath contrast sharply with Army's 6-5 mark and methodical, possession-oriented attack, yet the unique dynamics of this service academy clash—where both teams prioritize triple-option roots and ball control—have consistently suppressed scoring outputs, making the under a reliable wager in recent history.

Delving into the trends, the under has cashed in 16 of the last 19 Army-Navy games, including a remarkable streak of 16 consecutive unders dating back to 2006, underscoring how these contests defy modern college football's high-octane norms. This isn't mere coincidence; both programs rank among the nation's elite in rushing attempts and time of possession—Army leads the FBS with 35:08 per game on the ground, while Navy isn't far behind—leading to fewer possessions, shorter fields, and a deliberate pace that starves the scoreboard. When Navy has been favored, as they are here, the under has been even more dominant, going 9-1 in the last 10 such spots where the Midshipmen held the edge by 6.5 points or more, with games averaging well below posted totals due to conservative play-calling and the emotional weight of the rivalry often resulting in turnover-averse strategies. Add in Army's defensive resilience against the run (allowing just 3.8 yards per carry) and Navy's occasional struggles in red-zone efficiency, and the recipe for a sub-38.5 final score becomes evident, especially considering seven of the last 10 meetings have finished with 35 points or fewer combined.

Beyond the raw numbers, key angles amplify the under's appeal: Navy's offense, while potent at 30.5 points per game, faces an Army front seven that excels at bottling up mobile quarterbacks like Horvath, who relies on designed runs for chunk plays. Meanwhile, Army's quarterback Cale Hellums operates in a pass-light scheme (averaging under 50 yards through the air), limiting explosive potential and forcing long, sustained drives that eat clock but rarely erupt into shootouts. Betting market movement supports this narrative, with the total dipping from an opening 39.5 amid sharp action on the under, as public money chases Navy's spread but overlooks the rivalry's inherent conservatism—evidenced by overs hitting just 3-8 for Navy this season against similar run-heavy foes. . In a postseason landscape filled with inflated totals, this under stands out as a value-driven pick, rewarding those who respect the tradition of trench warfare over aerial assaults

The Big Ten title clash between undefeated Ohio State and Indiana screams low-scoring affair, making the under 48.5 a standout play amid two elite defenses poised to dominate. Ohio State boasts the nation's No. 1 scoring defense, allowing just 8.5 points per game and leading in yards per play surrendered, while Indiana ranks top-3 in scoring defense and takeaways, with both teams excelling in red zone stops. Trends heavily support the under: it has hit in 8 of Ohio State's 12 games this season, including all three against ranked foes, and Indiana's contests have gone under in 7 of their last 9 when facing top-25 defenses. From an angles perspective, this neutral-site game in Indianapolis features quarterbacks who've thrived on efficiency rather than volum.Ohio State's Will Howard has thrown for under 250 yards in half his starts, and Indiana's Fernando Mendoza prioritizes ball security, contributing to games averaging just 42 combined points against common opponents. My totals project to go under succeeding in nearly 70% of outcomes, bolstered by weather forecasts for cooler conditions that could further suppress scoring. Expect a chess match where field goals decide the day, as both squads have trended toward unders in championship-caliber matchups over the past three seasons.

Play under

Navy games have flown Over the total in nine of their last thirteen contests, largely because opponents are forced to abandon the run and throw on nearly every down to keep pace with the clock-chewing Midshipmen offense. Memphis has been an Over machine at home, cashing the Over on the team total in five straight and scoring 38+ in four of those. Both defenses struggle mightily on third down, and neither has shown the ability to get off the field against tempo or option looks.

This total opened 56.5 and has steadily climbed to 57.5–58 across the market on steady Over money. Take the Over before it hits 59 – these two teams are built to turn this into a track meet.

Total Play: Over

The Friday college football slate may be short, but it offers a massive betting opportunity when two Mountain West contenders clash in Las Vegas. While the spread has been subject to heavy sharp-money movement, the real value lies in the Total for the late-night contest between the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (7-3) and the UNLV Rebels (8-2). Bettors should confidently target the Over 64.5 points, as the matchup presents a perfect storm of offensive firepower and defensive vulnerability, turning Allegiant Stadium into a veritable pinball machine.

 This high total is a reflection of UNLV’s elite, up-tempo offense colliding with a glaring weakness in the Rebels’ own defense. UNLV ranks among the nation's best scoring attacks, putting up over 36 points per game and utilizing a powerful, top-10 rushing attack that averages 5.6 yards per carry. This Rebels ground game should face little resistance against a Hawaii defensive front that is often overwhelmed in the trenches, allowing opponents to find consistent success on the ground. Moreover, UNLV's drive for a Mountain West title game berth provides an added layer of motivation that typically translates to high-effort, high-scoring performances at home

However, the primary fuel for this Over is the favorable passing matchup for Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors feature a potent, top-10 national passing offense, and they will be facing a UNLV secondary that is ranked a dreadful 122nd in the FBS against the pass. Quarterback Micah Alejado, who has been throwing for huge yardage totals against MWC opponents recently, should have a field day exploiting the soft coverage. Given that UNLV’s defense is among the worst in the country in opponent-adjusted efficiency, and both teams are highly motivated to push the pace, the final score is virtually guaranteed to exceed the implied total. The combination of UNLV’s ground control and Hawaii’s aerial assault against these two porous defenses makes the Over 64.5 the sharpest and most profitable looking play on the board

 In a Sun Belt Conference slate that rarely gets the national spotlight, Thursday’s Arkansas State-Louisiana matchup is quietly one of the strongest total plays on the entire Week 13 board. The market opened 54.5 and has already been bet down to 53.5 at most shops, yet the number still feels inflated when you dig into the tempo and defensive profiles of these two teams.

Both programs play at a glacial pace by today’s college football standards. Arkansas State ranks 118th nationally in plays per game (64.2), while Louisiana sits 124th (62.8). That combination typically produces fewer than 125 total offensive snaps in a regulation game... well below the FBS average of 135-140. Fewer plays mean fewer scoring chances, and both defenses have taken full advantage of that reality all season.

Arkansas State’s last eight games have all gone under the total, often by double-digit margins. The Red Wolves have allowed just 22.4 points per game over their last five contests and rank top-40 nationally in defensive expected points added per play. Louisiana’s defense has been equally stubborn on the road, surrendering only 27.8 points per contest away from Cajun Field while forcing unders in four of their six true road games this year.

Recent history between these programs reinforces the trend. The last three meetings in Jonesboro have averaged just 49.7 total points, and each of the past five head-to-heads overall has finished under 56. With both teams sitting at 5-5 and 4-6 respectively and bowl eligibility on the line, expect ultra-conservative game plans built around clock control and field position rather than shootouts.

Its been bet down but the total still holds enough value for us to go under

44.5 is the lowest total Oregon has seen all season, and it’s a classic Vegas trap. The Ducks are averaging 38.7 PPG (3rd in FBS) and 239.7 rush YPG (6th), yet oddsmakers are pricing this like Minnesota can slow them down. They can’t.

Minnesota’s run defense ranks 81st in success rate vs. the rush (per SP+) and has surrendered 4.5+ YPC in every loss. Oregon’s ground game is built for this:

Noah Whittington: 551 rush yds, 5.8 YPCJordon Davison: 404 yds, 10 TDsTop-10 explosive run rate (12.1%)

Even if Oregon hits just 30–35 points (their floor in 6 of 8 wins), Minnesota needs one TD or two FGs to cash the Over. That’s it.

Key Trends That Scream OVER  ...Oregon home games 6-2 Over last 8/+3.45u of profit/Big Ten road unders for Minnesota 0-4 Over last 4 road games+3.64u profit (betting Overs)Oregon vs. non-P5/Big Ten bottom-50 rush defenses are 5-0 Over (avg. 61.2 pts)+4.55u profit /Friday night CFB totals  45 or less .59-9-3 Over YTD +5.18u/Autzen Stadium night games (temp 45–60°F)7-1 Over last 8/+5.36 units of profit

According to my projections this total is a FG to low- Oregon’s tempo plus Minnesota’s inability to stop the run projects to 35 points from the Ducks alone.Ducks have cleared 34 points in 7 straight home games.

Play over

  UMass (11.3 PPG) and NIU's poor road scoring (17.0 PPG) provide a solid foundation for the UNDER.

 Bottom-10 metrics in PPG, yards per play (4.1), and success rate, compounded by poor QB play and a porous O-line, scream three-and-outs.

 The significant drop-off in EPA/play on the road (29th at home / 99th on the road) and QB Rocky Lombardi's 5 TD/6 INT split away from home support the notion that NIU will struggle to put up points.

 NIU's run-heavy offense (60% rush rate) faces a respectable UMass defensive rush success rate (42nd), which could force the Huskies into unfavorable 3rd-and-long passing situations.

 Game flow screams low possessions....Combined 118 plays/game (both top-20 in fewest plays)UMass: 32% 3-and-out rate (12th highest)NIU: 29% 3-and-out rate on road

Expect 9–10 possessions per team. Even at 3.5 points/possession (generous), that’s ~35 total points.

The low temperature (38°F) and wind (10-15 mph) historically favor the UNDER by impacting passing and ball security.

 Given the confluence of poor offensive metrics, NIU's road struggles, a defensive matchup that favors the UNDER, and adverse weather conditions, this investment option is well justified.

Play on the under

Akron (45.2 PPG allowed in MAC play, 130th in EPA/play)

UMass (43.2 PPG allowed in conference, 129th in EPA/play)
Both are among the worst defenses in FBS.

 Taisun Phommachanh (UMass) and Jeff Undercuffler (Akron) are both exceeding 8.0 yards per attempt in MAC competition  which indicates both teams can create explosive plays through the air.

Neither secondary has shown the ability to limit those kinds of chunk gains.

2023 meeting produced 46 points in regulation, despite both teams being less efficient offensively at the time.

Over view of UMass games this year shows they are  combing to averaging 68.3 total points, suggesting they’re often in shootouts.

Akron home games trend to the Over — 7 of their last 8 have cleared the total.

Weather 62° with light wind — ideal scoring conditions, no weather-related downside.

 
Given the defensive metrics and offensive efficiency, a projected total closer to 58–60 points is reasonable. That gives around a +8–10 point cushion over the posted total. Ill take that as an edge.

Play on the over

UNT is No. 1 in FBS scoring  obviously owning a very explosive passing attack.

Navy’s pass defense is vulnerable UNT should be able to exploit this through the air.

Meanwhile, Navy Offense vs. North Texas Run Defense Navy runs a triple-option attack and will and  can control the clock and exploit UNT’s weakness against the run.

Im also betting  Navy gets rolling, rolls up alot of rushing yards and TDs.

Both teams play fast tempos and struggle to stop the other’s strengths which is a  recipe for a shootout or at least very high yardage totals output which transklates to the same thing.

75%+ of games hitting the over for both programs recently:

UNT: 6 of last 8 games

Navy: 6 of last 7 games

Both defenses bend heavily under pressure, neither is likely to generate consistent stops.

Offense is clearly prioritized; this is a scoring-focused matchup.

Expect lots of points and yardage from both sides.

Navy may control the clock slightly, but UNT’s explosive passing can counter quickly.

A high-scoring game hitting the over is the  bet.

Both defenses should dictate the tone in this matchup, pointing toward a slower, lower-scoring game. Texas enters with one of the nation’s top run defenses, while Vanderbilt’s unit has been opportunistic and tough to score on inside the red zone. Neither offense has shown consistent rhythm this season, and Vanderbilt’s deliberate pace is among the slowest in the country projects to limit total possessions on both sides.

The trenches could decide this one. Texas’s offensive line ranks just 77th in PFF Pass Block Grade, and Vanderbilt’s defense ranks near the top nationally in Havoc Rate (a metric measuring disruptive plays such as sacks, tackles for loss, and forced turnovers). That mismatch could lead to stalled drives and short fields that still may not convert into points, given Vanderbilt’s red-zone efficiency.

 The combination of elite defensive play, Vanderbilt’s slow tempo, and Texas’s protection issues all point toward a grind-it-out contest. The under appears to hold strong value, especially if the total is set in the mid-to-high 40s. A first-half under could also be worth a look, given both teams’ slow starts and methodical pace early in games.

Vanderbilt’s glacial pace (129th in seconds/play) means ~10–11 drives combined all game. Even if Texas pushes tempo, they’ll face a defense that forces 3-and-outs at a top-15 rate.Red Zone Stinginess: Vandy allows TDs on just 48% of red-zone trips. Texas converts only 58% (81st). Points will be at a premium.Texas O-Line vs. Vandy Havoc: The Commodores generate pressure on 42% of drop-backs (12th nationally). Texas allows a sack on 8.1% of pass plays (94th). Expect negative plays to kill drives.

Texas’s occasional explosive plays are misleading and with QB Manning less than 100% . They rank 108th in offensive success rate and face a secondary that’s top-20 in EPA/play allowed. Big plays will be outliers, not the norm.

Play on the under

 A 4 to 5 -point drop from the opening totals offering  signals viable  sharp action on the under.

 It makes sense to me as  James Madison employs a slow pace (62 plays/game) and that along with  solid defense limit total plays and scoring chances.

Meanwhile,  Texas State’s home unders cashing 3 of 4  support what looks like will be a grinding affair that fails to eclipse this total.

CFB team like James Madison against the total - excellent rushing team - averaging 225 or more rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games are 81-38 under since since 2021 with a combined average of 50 points per game scored.

Play on the under

This matchup features two teams known for playing a top tier brand of  defense and both have inconsistent  struggling offenses.  With that said, Im bettong on   a low-scoring, defensive slugfest.

Play under

CFB Road teams against the total - with an incredible offense - averaging 450 or more total yards/game, after allowing 450 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games are 24-4 under since 2016 with a combined average score of 57.8 ppg scored.

Play under

My projections estimate a score in the high 50s, making this a viable under wager.

Western Kentucky games after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 8-1 under dating back to the 2023 season with a combined average of 43.5 ppg scored.

CFB Home teams like Deleware against the total - off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog against opponent off a road win are 24-2 UNDER since the 2016 season with a combined average score of 44.6 ppg scored.

CFB Road teams like w.Kentucky against the total - off a road win against a conference rival against opponent off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog are 23-4 under since 2-16 with a combined score of 47.5 ppg scored.

Play under

Pittsburgh home games in September games have gone over 6 straight times with a combined average of 64.8 ppg scored.

CFB teams like Lousiville  when the total is between 49.5 and 63 - after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, undefeated on the season are 24-4 over since 2021 with a combined average combined score of 70.6 ppg scored.

Play over

The Florida State Seminole's own the No.1-ranked offense in the country , and UVA ranks not far behind at  5th best in offense. The Cavaliers sport a under rated   QB in   Chandler Morris,  as is evident by his  s 8:1 TD / INT ratio and 70% completion rate. Morris had five touchdowns against Stanford last week and Im betting lights the board up here again tonight as will Florida State stud QB Tommy Castellanos who  is a  legitimate Heisman candidate. Everything points to a high scoring game , and the smart money agrees as this total approaches the 60 point mark up from 57 at the opening.

CFB teams when the total is between 49.5 and 63 - off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival against opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite are 32-9 OVER since 2021 with the average combined score of these games clicking in at 62.9 ppg.

Play over

Opposition sides  have scored on all 14 red zone attempts against Armys defense, including eight touchdowns and Im betting on East Carolina continuing that offensive trend in this spot, as they   are tied for fourth in the nation with 25 red zone attempts.  Meanwhile, Army's offense looks like it is ready to roll after scoring 38 last week vs North Texas in a OT loss, and go against a East Carolina D, this week that struggles against option offenses like the Black Knights use.

Play on the OVER

LATE STEAM

LATE STEAM

Rutgers has the fire power to force Iowa out of their comfort zone, and force them to open up. That Im betting leads to a higher scoring affair. 

CFB teams when the total is 49 or less - after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game, with 9 or more offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 30-7 OVER since 2021 with a combined average of 53.5 ppg scored.

CFB Road teams where the total is 49 or less - after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 37-10 OVER since 2016 with a combined average of 50.8 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER

Louisville put 51 points on the board vs their FCS opponent last week and James Madison put 45 points on the board. Both teams ran what looked more like a controlled scrimmage. This week Im betting they unleash the proverbial hounds and for these two viable offenses to tee off on each other. Both sides have strong starting QBS with JMU showcasing duel threat  Alonza Barnett III and the Cardinal with Miller Moss. Points will be scored and more than the lines-makers estimate.

Louisville games in non-conference games are 6-0 OVER L/6 with a combined average of 62 ppg scored. Jeff Brohm games in the first two weeks of the season are 5-0 OVER with a combined average of 64.4 ppg scored.

Play on the over

Key words here in this battle is heat and humidity. Maybe just maybe these teams start fast but by the 2nd half cramps , heat exhaustion will take its toll on both teams and this game will slow down to a crawl. That makes for a lower scoring tilt than the line offering suggests. 

Spencer Danielson as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points- ( 5 game sample size has seen a combined average of 50.2 ppg go on the scoreboard.

NCAAF Road teams against the total like Boise State- excellent offense from last season - averaged 6.1 or more yards/play, in weeks 0-3, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season are 39-13 under since 2021 with a combined average of 48.8 ppg scored.

Play under

The public really seems to like the over here as the overall  market according to the amount of bets made  shows a majority of betters on this being a higher scoring affair, but in contrarian fashion I will go against the public as I project a lower scoring affair that stays on the low side of the offering. In the L/12 national championship games the public has yet to cash with their assumptions going 0-11-1. Also despite of the public being on the over, the total has gone down from the opener of 46.5 to 45.5 which means smart money and not the public is moving this line.

Play under

Notre Dames offense stuttered vs Georgia despite of getting the victory and had 244 total yards and just 90 passing yards. and now  with star RB Love playing at less than 100% problems are brewing .  QB  Leonard  will not have play action on his side, and even if he did his downfield cogs are an inconsistent issue anyway. It must be noted that entering this season the Notre Dame  offensive line was a problem point and against this big physically imposing Penn State D, moving the chains once again looks like it will be a problem. Meanwhile, on the flipside, Penn State offense will also have tough sledding here vs Notre Dames 5th ranked D.  Penn State games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game have gone 5-0 since 2023 with the combined average ppg clicking in at 32.6 ppg. Penn State generated just 18.4 ppg.

These are two top-10 defenses by yards per play and Im betting both sides will not move the chains with impunity and instead a ground and pound type of affair will key this combined score on the low side of the Total. 

Play on the under

Both these teams are missing players on both sides of the ball,  but both still run aggressive offense schemes,  and both have lackluster defensive talent. With that said, Im betting on whatever personal is on the field alot of points will go on the board in what will highly likely be an  offensive slugfest. It must be noted that despite of missing their top QB North Texas enters this game  10th in yards per play and will once again attack with furor. The Mean Green have no choice but to score in bunches as their defense is atrocious. The same holds true with Texas State as in their L/3 games of the season averaged 49 ppg and on defense allowed 31 points per game. 

North Texas games in non-conference games are 11-2 OVER L/13 overall with a combined average of 75.7 ppg scored.

The game between North Texas and Texas State is set for clear skies with temperatures around 60°F. Light east-southeast winds at 4.5 mph will have minimal impact on play. Expect a fast-paced game with no precipitation or humidity concerns, ideal conditions for both passing and scoring opportunities.

Play over

LATE STEAM 

Notre Dames offense has looked stagnant at times this year, and very explosive other times, but is for certain their opponents today Georgia has allowed just 3.8 yards per carry and 129.3 yards per game vs opposing rush offenses season ranking eighth in opponent EPA per rush and 24th in defensive success rate against the run, which rings alarm bells for a Irish offense that will be out to establish the run( ND ran the ball more than 55% of the time this season). On the flip-side, the Notre Dame's defense ranked top-five nationally in points allowed per game (13.8) and yards allowed per play (4.5) . So Im betting backup Gunner Stockton despite of his good qualities at quarterback, is an average at best passer and  will have issues  with one of the nation's best pass defenses and as the games progresses like expect the Dawgs to run the ball alot more .With that said Im betting on a defense-dominant, ground-and-pound kind of tilt that results in a lower scoring affair. 

Play on the under

I know Louisville QB Tyler Shough won’t play but he will be backed by a capable QB senior Harrison Bailey who completed 100% of his 8 passes this season.Bailey also will have a ton of play action on his side with  1,000-yard rusher  Isaac Brown, ( 1,074 yards on  147 carries) . I expect the Louisville     big-play offense that ranks  third in the nation in yards per play at 6.88  will not skip a beat vs a inconsistent Washington D that played much worse away from home.  On the flipside QB  Demond Williams Jr. will get the call at QB for the Huskies ( completed 77% of his passes and had a 4/0 TD/INT Ratio. ) and he is expected to be backed by Jonah Coleman who record 1,000 plus yards. Im beting both offenses with a eye on the future will open up their playbooks here, and give us alot more offensive action the totals line indicates. Note:Game time weather for Louisville vs. Washington looks favorable. Expect a warm day at 65°F with minimal cloud cover and no precipitation. Light winds from the west-southwest may have a minor influence on passing and kicking but shouldn't disrupt offensive play enough to make a difference. Overall, ideal conditions for a higher scoring matchup!

Play over

This Totals  line keeps moving down, but rightly so. as both teams  are known for their defensive prowess, plus  key offensive weapons will not play today, as Missouris star WR Luther Burden is out, and Iowas future NFL RB Kaleb Johnson opting out for the draft. Also Iowa has quarterbacks Cade McNamara and Marco Lainez in the transfer portal, With  that said, Im betting on a grinding  affair, that stays on the low side of the Total. The under is  4-0 in the four non-conference games that Missouri has played. 

Iowa last 6 games as an underdog have seen a combined score of 27.6 ppg scored.Iowa games when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points have seen a combined average of 36.2 ppg scored dating back to 2023 season spanning a 9 game sample size,

Play under

Both these teams are misses pieces but Im betting Colorado State duel threat QB  Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi will do damage here today  against this RedHawks secondary. that despite being good against the pass this season,  will be without key  defender  Strader and couple other starting defensive backs wont play either.  On the flipside, as the Rams were just 107th in the nation in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.057) this season, and with that said,  Miami O Im betting reciprocates with some offensive  damage of their own in game with a total that is very beatable.

CFB teams like Colorado State/ Miami O where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 5 PPG differential.) are 36-2 OVER since 2020 with a combined average of 51,8 ppg scored.

Play over

 Georgia Tech averaged 29.1 points per game this season on offense while Vanderbilt averaged 26.8 points per game.  The Techsters are 14th in the nation in EPA per play (0.084) while the Commodores  are 24th (0.063).  On the defensive side of the ball Georgia Tech is ranked  51st in EPA per play allowed (-0.022) and Vanderbilt is ranked  67th (-0.001). The offenses are obviously the strong points for both sides, and despite of absences from both sides, the offenses Im betting will shine , despite of the chance of their being some light drizzle or rain. 

The Over is 3-1 in the 4 games Georgia Tech has played against SEC opponents with  HC Key at the helm , and  4-0 OVER  in the four games the team has played against defenses that allow at least 8 or more  passing yards per attempt. Georgia Tech games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or more are 6-0 OVER since 2023 with a combined average of 64.7 ppg scored. .Meanwhile, The Over is 11-1 UNDER  in the 12 non-conference games the Commodores have played under Lea.Vanderbilt games when the total is between 49.5 and 56 are 9-1 OVER L/10 with a combined average of 58.5 ppg scored.

CFB teams  like Georgia Tech where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - off 1 or more straight overs, in a game involving two average teams (+/- 5 PPG diff.) after 7 or more games are 139-79 OVER since 1992 for a 62% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 56.1 ppg.

Play over

The Red Wolves are here in. a Bowl game despite of owning the worst D in the Sun Belt for yards allowed.Red Wolves’ defense, which allowed 32.3 points per game and 460.7 yards per game  ranked sixth-to-worst in FBS. However their  offense is balanced and can strike quickly behind QB Jaylen Raynor, who threw for 2,562 yards and 14 touchdowns this season abd RB Zak Wallace, who’s been a scoring machine with 622 rushing yards and 10 TDs.Note: Raynor threw for six touchdowns and only one pick over the last two games entering the tilt. I know Bowling Green has a strong D, allowing just over 20 ppg, but Red Wolves according to my projections will eclipse that mark and get into the mid to 20s ( 24-27) and on the flips side give up more than 30 plus points here (***Bowling Green has  scored at least 31 points in three of its last five games) . Bottom line in a game to close to call on the spread, the total looks be a strong bankroll expanding investment opportunity.  - CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - with a poor rushing D - allowing 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 96-48 OVER since 2020 with a combined average score of 58.2 ppg scored.

Play over

This may seem like a high total, and it is,  but its melted up this way for a reason. HC Niumatalolo when coming over from Navy decided to change the offense up and not go with a triple option offense , and instead allowed new offensive coordinator Craig Stutzmann to implement a run and shoot attack . He did it well, and here against a sometimes lackluster South Florida D that allowed  5.8 YPP in AAC action , Im betting San Jose State will do some series damage. Note:San Jose State throws the ball at one of the highest rates in the nation (64%) air attack. Yes, I know star WR Nich Nash will not play for the Spartans today as he awaits to the NFL draft but this allows WR  Justin Lockhart  who is a college star on the rise to get alot of looks today. On the flipside, Im also betting on the Bulls behind  Archie or Brown to  also do a fair amount of damage  offensively as  the  Spartans had problems  stopping explosiveness in passing downs and  finished the season 121st in third-down defense. Im also betting on the Bulls ground game  to find alot of holes vs a San Jose State using inside zone as the  Spartans D finished  last in  the country in Line Yards and Stuff Rate against one of the softest schedules in the nation. Get ready for some early New Yeats fireworks on paradise Island this Christmas eve. 

Play over

 UTSA’s defense was horrendous  this season and even if Coastal Carolinas QB Hudson does not play , Im still expecting them to put some points on the board as UTSA  allowed 5.7 yards per play this season, and more than  six yards per play in November. This team allowed 26 passing touchdowns allowed ranking them  123rd in the country.  On the flipside, UTSA’s offense went bonkers towards the tail end of the season, behind their pedigree QB McCown who  threw for 1,860 yards in his L/6  tilts to the gridiron while  rushing for 213 over his final three. He wont be slowed by this pedestrian Coastal Carolina D. Coastal Carolina games when the total is between 49.5 and 56 are 10-2 OVER with a combined average of 66.4 ppg scored. UTSA games in all games are 8-1 OVER with 65.7 ppg scored.

Play over

James Madison starting QB Alonza Barnett III  who accounted for over 3000 yards of offense, and 33 TDs will miss this tilt.  The two backup QBs have  recorded  just two pass attempts in relief of him this season. JMU only had 5.34 YPP against conference foes and could struggle once again today moving the ball, even against a team like the Hilltoppers that struggled on D this season. Also the Hilltoppers have a lot of portal transfers and will be without Easton Messer WR. JMU has played a strong defense allowing just 4.73 ypg on D. With rain and windy conditions expected this game could end up being a grinding slow affair that stays on the low side of the totals offering. 

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite, in December games are 41-14 UNDER with a combined average of 45.6 ppg scored.

Play under 

Memphis will be primed to take down a power 5 team in this tilt vs West Virginia. The explosive Tigers offense (that ranked 20th in offensive plays with 871) and an average of 6 ypp will Im betting do damage here today. Meanwhile, West Virginia now with a interim coach may not be as not be as cohesive especially on D, as they have a  long list of transfer portal players on the move including key defender Josiah Trotter. It also must be noted that the Mountaineers gave up an average 40 plus points a game in their L/3 trips to the gridiron entering Bowl season.  Memphis gave up alot of points this season overal and in neutral or road games allowed more than 27 ppg. Im betting the Tigers do what they do best and score and the Mountaineers answer back with points of their own as the new interim HC Chad Scott  was the running back catch and offensive coordinator and should have that part of their game running on all cylinders.  Memphis away or neutral games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better are 7-0 OVER L/7 with a combined average of 70.8 ppg scored.West Virginia games after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are 5-0 OVER L/5 with a combined average of 68 ppg scored while allowing their opposition more than 42 points per game.

Play on the over

Military Bowl teams have gone 29-5 under overall L/34 and these two sides in particular are on a 16-1-1 under run! After their big win in AAC championship game vs Tulane - Army may find it difficult to bring the same  fire they had last week into a rivalry game that will see them face a ramped up Navy side . They could start slow offensively and that as well as this being guaranteed to be a physical affair make for a low scoring game. 

Play under

The Bobcats also have a top-30 red-zone TD% and is 20th in overall YPP. and has 32 TD in 44 red-zone trips.     I know Miami O has a viable D, but the Bobcats according to my projections  will be putting a decent amount of points on the board here today vs the RedHawks,. Meanwhile, Miami O QB Brett Gabbert,  has  six seasons under center and has gone to the air regularly this season as is evident by making the  most pass attempts he’s had in a single campaign. He also has accumulated  10,000 career yards this season and has an 80/29 TD/INT ratio and also projects to have a decent day here.These two teams played during the regular season and Miami took a 30-20 victory and Im betting a combined score in the same vicinity here today.  CFB teams like Ohio where the total is between 42.5 and 49 - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against a poor rushing team (100-140 RY/game) after 7+ games, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game have seen a combined average score of 53.9 ppg since the 1992 season with a sample size of 35 games ( 29-6 OVER) . CFB team like Miami O against the total - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) have seen a combined average of 50.4 ppg which covers a huge sample size 300 gmes dating back to 2020 ( 60% of the games eclipsed the total).

Play over

These teams (programs)Michigan-Ohio St games have seen t 10 straight meetings go over the total,  Ohio State is a three touchdown favorite in this one according to Vegas, and my projections estimate they will put 4 plus TDS on the board here while allowing Michigans offense to put two plus TDS on the board. Ohio State games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 8-1 L/9 with a combined average of 59.3 ppg scored.Ryan Day games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games with a combined average 62.2 ppg.

Play on the OVER 

Its obvious what type of game we are going to have here today. Let the chant begin. DEFENSE, DEFENSE, DEFENSE. College football season finale games expected to be defensive helmet  to helmet smashers  have lived up to expectations . In the last  21 season finale games with totals less than 40, Under the total has gone 16-4-1 ( Lots of 39.5 on the board at the time of this selection.

Play under .

UNDER the total is 10-1 in the last 11 of the Egg Bowl series. This will be a hard fought game despite of discrepancies. 

Play on the UNDER 

Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - with a poor rushing D - allowing 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 51-20 since the 2020 season with a combined average of 59.5 ppg scored.

Eight of UAB's last nine games against conference opponents at Protective Stadium have gone OVER the total .

These teams are  6-0 OVER  in all six h2h meetings in Birmingham since 2005.

Michigan MAC Trophy rivalry, will feature alot of points going on the board. 

The Broncos allow way to many  explosive plays on the ground. . CMU recent struggles Im betting get sorted out here in a big way. They up 34 points  on the board against a decent Eastern Michigan defense two weeks ago, and I now expect them to have big output here . Meanwhile,Western Michigan outgained Northern Illinois at home last week but despite of losing by a 42-28 count, and Im betting on even bigger output here.  Their quarter back Wolff  has been efficient this season  recording  19 passing touchdowns compared to five picks while completing 70% of his passes. (Two of those interceptions came last week)

Western Michigan games after playing their last game on the road are 11-1 L/12 OVER with a combined average of 66.1 ppg scored.Western Michigan games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.9 or more yards/play have gone over 6 straight times with a combined average of 69.8 ppg scored.

Play over

These two teams have gone  6-0  over in all six   meetings in Chapel Hill since 2003, and the L/4 games have seen North Carolina put 55, 59, 50, 49 on the board, and according to my projections against a lower tier D, another huge output is projected with Wake Forests capable offense doing damage against a Swiss cheese Tar Heels D that has allowed 35 ppg at home this season. N.Carolina has averaged 36..7 ppg in their L/3 overall.

Play over

LSU shit the bed last week in an ugly performance vs Alabama in a DD home loss. Their offense struggled, and Im now betting they come out like gang busters as they look for redemption. With that said Im betting LSU will be very aggressive from a offensive perspective in this tilt vs a Florida side that has allowed an average of  34.2 ppg in their L/3 overall and 31.2 ppg vs SEC opposition this season.. After being smashed by Texas last week in a 49-17 loss you can bet the Gators will also be primed to bounce back. Billy Napier games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival has gone 8-0 OVER L/8 with a combined average of 64.5 ppg scored with his team averaging 32.4 ppg.

LSU HC Brian Kelly games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses have gone over 8 of the L/9 times with a combined average of 76.5 ppg scored. with LSU putting an average of 48 plus ppg on the board during that span.

Play over

This line opened at 48, which is a key number. But Im betting the number we get here is still very viable as my projections estimate a score in lower 40s. Im expecting an old fashioned grinding affair with the combined score staying on the low side of the number.  These teams average   95th in plays per game between overall between them.  Bret Bielema games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 14-3 to the under with a combined average of 41.1 ppg scored.Michigan State away or neutral games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better are 9-1 UNDER L/10 with a combined average of 41.7 ppg scored.Michigan State away or neutral games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better are 7-0 UNDER since the 2022 campaign with a combined average of 41.3 ppg scored.

Play under

Kent State according to my projections will not eclipse DDs here today . The Flashes were shutout last week, thanks to an abysmal performance from QB Ruel Tomlinson who got his first start. He was 8-of-18 for 62 yards and threw a pick, along with five sacks . He is expected to start again tonight vs Miami O and projects to struggle again. The Flash have been shutout 3 times this season, and scored 6 or less points four times. UNDER the total is 9-1 in the last 10 in this  series. Miami O HC Chuck Martin games versus poor offensive teams - averaging 310 yards/game is 7-0 UNDER as coach of Redhawks with a combined average of 27.2 ppg scored.Miami (OH) games when playing against a team with a losing record are 7-0 UNDER L/7 with a combined average of 37.7 ppg scored.

Play under

 Looking at Central Michigan defense had me looking at reasons to bet this game over the offered total  of around 51-52 points.  The chips has allowed over six yards per play in conference games to this point  and the my projections estimate the  Rockets are going to able to move the chains and produce adequate offensive production that will help us get over this number. The Chippewas defense allows 31 points per game with a lot of points being scored on explosiveness. Central Michigan’s defense ranks 128th in Explosiveness allowed which is obviously a crap ranking. On D, the Chips  rank 73rd in Rush Success Rate allowed as opposed to 94th in Pass Success Rate allowed.  The Rockets Quarterback Tucker Gleason leads a consistent offense that averages 29 points per game. . Toledo also rank 60th in Rush Success Rate and 30th in Pass Success Rate. I know Toledo has done decently from a defensive perspective, but the CMU dual-threat QB duo and above average  running game that ranks in the top 40 in yards per carry should help bolster their offense production and see the combined score  get us over the number. Toledo has gone over in all 4 home games this season, while Central Michigan 3 of 4 road games and 4 of 5 MAC confrontations.  Central Michigan away or neutral games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games have gone over 5 straight times with a combined average of 61.8 ppg scored. HC Jim McElwain games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) have gone over 10 of 12 games have gone over 59.9 ppg.

Play on OVER

 LSU owns  one of the nation’s premier offensive lines, a unit that has allowed just 4 sacks in 8 games, only 24 tackles for loss all year and Im betting  they will give their QB Garrett Nussmeier  all the protection he needs to go airborne consistently today which to me is a not brainer considering the Tigers are one of SECs worst rush offenses at 3.34 ypr. On the flip-side Alabama will also have to unload in back for fashion behind  QB Jalen Milroe who has the ability to  torch LSU with enough explosive plays to put a boatlaod full of point on the board. 

Alabama games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 5-0 over dating back to last season with a combined average of 62 ppg scored.

LSU games against conference opponents have gone over 10 of the L/12 overall with a combined average of 69.7 ppg scored. LSU games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 11-2 OVER dating back to last season with a combined average of 72.5 ppg scored. LSU games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses. are 8-0 OVER L/8 opportunities with a combined average of 79.3 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER

 Overall  Coastal Carolinas D,  has been atrocious, and recently they allowed 516 yards to Louisiana and followed that up by allowing 511 yards to Troy.  Coastal Carolina is allowing 428 yards and 33 ppg while giving up 6.1 yards per play on defense.  Chanticleers pass defense is not exhibiting much stopping power and  has allowed a 17/4 TD/INT ratio and a completion percentage over 60%  and are allowing more than six yards per play . Thats something  App States  QB Joey Aguilar can take advantage of.He recorded  a 33/10 TD/INT ratio last season and gained more than 3,700 yards. This season,  thanks to his excessive  aggressiveness has  recording 18 TDS and 10 interceptions which are not as prolific as last years action  ,but today he should do fine.  Meanwhile, the Mountaineers  defense has also been bad, as is evident by  giving up  6.9 yards per play.  App State have victories in their L/2 tilts  vs Georgia State and Old Dominion despite allowing 884 total yards  Coastal Carolina stake no prisoners  big-play offense have recorded 26 plays of 30+ yards  and 14 plays of 40+ yards ranked top 15 in all of College Football and will have a open alley to put a boatload full of points on the board. Im betting we have a real shoot out here and a combined score that gets eclipsed. Coastal Carolina home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 6-0 OVER with a combined average of 68.5 ppg scored.

OVER

UNDER the total has converted in 11 straight in the Air Force-Army rivalry. Im betting on another grinding affair that stays under this totals offering. 

 Boise State has won the Stats battles and all 6 of their games  by an average of +142 net yards per game), Their opus operandi has been via a top tier run game that is averaging  +7.9 net yards Per Rush behind Heisman Trophy candidate  Ashton Jeanty.Jeanty has 1,248 yards on 126 carries for 9.9 yards per pop and 17 rushing touchdowns and can make the best of defenses look average at best.  

Broncos have the second-best offense in the nation in yards per play.  and going against UNLV side that  gave up 44 points to Syracuse at home  I expect mucho points to go on the board.  On the flip-side, UNLV ranks 21st in yards per play and project to have a big output night vs a Boise State side, that gave up   82 points in the first two games of the season versus Georgia Southern and Oregon .

With that said, Im betting on a high scoring affair that eclipses this total.

Boise State games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 250 or more passing yards/game have gone over 6 straight times dating back to the 2022 season with a combined average of 66.8 ppg scored

UNLV games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or better yards/play havre gone over 9 straight times with a combined average of 73.7 ppg.

Play over

Jacksonville State is ranked 15th in yards per play g and have done even better  in league play, garnering a whopping 7.6 yards per play in two Conference USA games and according to my projections are  to get into the upper 40s here again in this tilt vs Middle Tennessee State that ranks  127th in yards per play allowed on defense at 6.69. MTSU has scored consistently and averaged 6 ypp in conference play ( 3 games), and also project to get in the high 20s which gives credence to an over wager in this mid week  spot pay /play situation. Note: Jacksonville State when playing against a team with a losing record ( L/7) have averaged 46.4 ppg with the average combined score of those tilts clicking in at 68.8 ppg scored. Middle Tennessee has allowed four of its previous five FBS oppoennts  to top the 42 point plateau on offense. . Jacksonville State won 45-30 on the road last season when these teams met and a similar output is a viable opportunity to cash a over ticket again. 

Play over 

Marshalls  secondary is of the top tier variety, and they will be a nightmare for the  Panthers' passing attack. Georgia State does not  run the football well , and that means according to my projections a lack of point production as was the case last week where they scored just 14 points in a loss.v Important favotr here : Marshall ranks 29th in Passing Success Rate and 54th in Havoc., Marshalls starting QB is out for the season, and instead they will go with a QB by committee option which has seen them stall on red zone dirves. Marshall ranks  outside the top 100 in Quality Drives and Finishing Drives. These are keys to what Im betting will end up be a lower scoring affair.  Georgia State games as a road underdog.have gone under 5 straight times. HC Charles Huff games versus poor rushing teams - averaging 120 or less rushing yards/game have gone under 7 straight times with the average ppg diff clicking in at 40.8 ppg scored.

Play under

Troy has struggled on defense all season, outside the top 100 in EPA/Play this season and South Albamas explosive offense that  has ,   seventh best rankings  in EPA/Play this season under aggressive offensive minded  head coach Major Applewhite.NOTE:  when Gio Lopez is playing QB  the offense is 10th in EPA/Pass, per Game   with a 12-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. On the flipside the Jags D is sub par, and Troy Im betting also does some damage here in chase mode in  a tilt that eclipses this total. 

Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - off 2 or more consecutive unders, good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game are 41-14 OVER since the 2020 season with a combined average of 63.7 ppg scored. 

CFB teams like Tro where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - with a poor rushing D - allowing 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 82-33 OVER since the 2020 season with a combined average of 60.1 ppg scored.

Play over

My projections estimate a combined score in the 55 point range, New Mexico is off a bye week and will be rusty on offense out of the gate. Meanwhile, Jacksonville could show some fatigue here on a short week of rest that saw them play last Friday, and could also start slowly.  The Aggies have a total of 11 offensive touchdowns this season,  as QBs  Santino Marucci, Parker Awad, and Deuce Hogan have combined for a 40.9% completion rate and a 4/6 TD/INT ratio. Their lack of firepower helps this sscore stay under the listed Total. 

Home teams like Jacksonville State where the total is between 56.5 and 63 - with a poor defense - allowing 5.8 or more yards/play, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games are 38-13 UNDER since 1992 with a combined average of 51,7 ppg scored.

CFB teams like New Mexico State where the total is between 56.5 and 63 - after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game against opponent after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games are 55-21 UNDER since 1992 with a combined average score of 55.4 ppg scored.

Road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points - outgained by opponent by 80 or more passing yards/game on the season have seen a combined average of 51 points per game scored from a sample size of 57 games dating back to the 2020 season.

 New Mexico State away or neutral games after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 6-0 UNDER since the 2023 season with a combined average of 44 ppg scored.

Play on the UNDER 

This number is low, actually just a bit to low according to my projections.  Michigan L/16 games as a home favorite have seen a combined average of 47.9 ppg scored.

The last eight games of the Minnesota/Michigan  series have gone Over the total. 

CFB team like Michigan against the total - good rushing team - averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games have seen a combined average of 50.6 ppg scored ( spanning 138 games dating back to the 2020 season).

System applies to: Michigan over.

Army has  outscored the opposition 103-28, with their ground heavy option offense  including 61-21 in their two FBS games. The offense is clicking and Im betting they will continue to produce here this evening vs  a Temple side on short rest.  It must be noted the Owls when they faced the option offense of the Navy  Midshipmen they allowed 38 points in a DD loss. Im betting Temple will also get run over defensively again, but their offense is starting to up trend as was evident when they scored 45 points and had 6.6 yards per play against Utah State last week behind a solid looking QB Evan Simon. 

Temple games vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game have gone over 6 straight times dating back to the 2022 season with a combined average of 68.7 ppg. Temple home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse have seen a combined average of 58.6 ppg scored going over 5 straight times dating back to last season .

Army West Point games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games have gone over 6 straight times dating back to the 2022 season with a combined average of 50.8 ppg scored.

CFB Home teams like Temple- sub par team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after scoring 37 points or more last game have seen  an of 54.5 ppg scored spanning 95 games going back to the 2015 season

CFB Home teams like Temple where the total is between 42.5 and 49 - after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in September games are 43-15 OVER L/9 seasons for a combined average of 50.5 ppg scored.

CFB team against the total - dominant team like Army outrushing opponents by 80+ YPG against a poor team who is outrushed by 80+ YPG, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 48-18 OVER since 1992 with a combined average of 61.6 ppg.

Play over

Im betting the Hawkeyes will be in. alook ahead situation here vs Ohio State up next, and could find their offense just going through the motions earlier on this game vs a tough Minnesota D that has not allowed points since the 4th quarter of their game against North Carolina to start their season. Both teams thrive via the rush and that will eat clock time which in turn gives credence to a lower scoring sleep fest. Kirk Ferentz games when the total is 35 or less as coach of Iowa : 9-1 UNDER (90%) with an average over/under of 31.9 with a combined average of 27.4 ppg scored.Kirk Ferentz in a road game where the total is 35 or less of Iowa has seen a combined average score of 26.4 ppg scored spanning 5 games.

Play under

The under is a perfect 6-0 in the last six Vandy-Mizzou series in Columbia. My projections estimate a combined score in the high 40s ansd no more than 51 points which gives us value with betting the under on this totals offering. Teams like Missouri total - good rushing team - averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games have gone under are 90-46 UNDER since the 2020 season with a combined average of 50 ppg scored. CFB teams like Vanderbilt where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games are 69-33 UNDER with the average combined score clicking in at 50.1 ppg.

Play under

 The Blue Devils routed the Huskies 41-7 a season ago at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. However, this is a better version of Connecticut, and they should do some damage here offensively in the rematch. Unfortunately Im projecting that the Blue Devils will also show off some explosive offensive firewrks in what Im betting will be a higher scoring affair. Note: UConn owns a current 13-game road losing streak against power conference (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC), the Huskies' average margin of defeat is 28.5 points.  The five losses in Mora's tenure have an average margin of defeat of 39.2 points, including last year's 59-3 loss at Tennessee and a 59-0 loss at Michigan in 2022. 

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 - off a road win, in September games.like Duke have gone 30-9 OVER L/4 seasons with a combined average of 52.8 ppg scored.

LATE STEAM- OVER 

I know alot of pundits believe their will be regression offensively for the Jayhawks this season season because, of the absence of former Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki who is now calling plays for Penn State. However there is still enough attacking talent on this team behind  QB Jalon Daniels to make like difficult for opposing defenses. On the flipside, UNLV showed their explosiveness on offense vs  Utah Tech last week when they put 70 points on the board and even though their passing game may not be optimal they are capable of burning down the field and moving chains via the run game. Lance Leipold in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses has seen 9 straight overs hit , with a combined average of 80.1 ppg scored. Also HC Lance Leipold in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers have seen a combined average of 82.5 ppg combined scored.

Play over

I know alot of pundits believe their will be regression offensively for the Jayhawks this season season because, of the absence of former Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki who is now calling plays for Penn State. However there is still enough attacking talent on this team behind  QB Jalon Daniels to make like difficult for opposing defenses. On the flipside, UNLV showed their explosiveness on offense vs  Utah Tech last week when they put 70 points on the board and even though their passing game may not be optimal they are capable of burning down the field and moving chains via the run game. Lance Leipold in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses has seen 9 straight overs hit , with a combined average of 80.1 ppg scored. Also HC Lance Leipold in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers have seen a combined average of 82.5 ppg combined scored.

Play over

This line has now been bet down to low- based on what I believe to be some false assumptions from some sharps and the public alike. Notre Dame may be in a letdown spot after their big road win against Texas A&M last time out. But this is their first home game of the season, and will want to get their offense unwound behind their new QB , and despite of N.Illinois projecting to be a top 3 MAc team this season- hey, their still a MAC team, and consistent defensive play is not one of things that stands out from this conference. Im betting in a letdown spot or not the Irish do some offensive damage here that will allow this total to be eclipsed. Also Notre Dame flashed some extremely strong D out of the gate vs Texas A&M and may show some wear and tear this week, and as the game goes on and firmly within the grasp of the home side, look for some starters to get rested and for Northern Illinois to find some success late in this game offensively, helping us push this combined score over the Total. My projections estimate a combined score in the low 50s giving us a strong edge here based on those factors that I have isolated. (From a side perspective Im not quite ready to take the points here despite of perceived value and will elect to pass -with a better safe than sorry mind set) 

Play over

James Madison had no problem running up scores last season, even with DD leads  and here against a Charlotte side  that  will be without a number of their starters due injuries that could once again be the case. With that said, I wont be surprised if the Dukes come close to eclipsing this totals offering all by themselves and for Charlotte to do enough damage to help us cash an over bet. 

Play over

My projections for this game estimate a score closer to the 60 point plateau. 

The Broncos  will be in tough here in   their season opener on the road against a Georgia Southern team that went 5-1 SU at home last year, has won 16 of its past 17 home openers. With that said, Im betting they give the Broncos a run for their money and what will Im betting not be a defensive style game, but rather a back and forth style track meet (or similar) type of affair. note: Georgia Southern plays a lot of man coverage and that means the speedy Boise State Broncos will be able to take advantage of this and put into play what their new offensive coordinator Koetter says he wants to see more explosive offensive plays which should produce alot of points. On the flipside Georgia Southerns dual threat  QB French is a man under center that maybe highly under rated - after sitting out at Memphis in first season in College football he transfered to GS and went 13 for 16 via 48 snaps, and is ready to be let loose on opponents this season. He will offer up a challenge to the Broncos D. Overall there is alot of good offensive talent on the field for both sides and a over bet is viable investment option. 

Georgia Southern has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.90 Units / 51% ROI)

Washington undefeated season came by route of an explosive offense that averaged just under 38 points per game and  rarely could be slowed. their Achilles heel has and is their D that allowed  30.1 ppg, and Texas is a team that can exploit that as is evident by averaging 36.2 ppg this season and that put up 57 and 49 points respectively in their L/2 games of the season. What Im betting on here today is a back and forth blockbuster that easily eclipses this total.  TEXAS is 10-0 L/10 OVER after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite with a combined average of 68.7 ppg scored. TEXAS is 16-3 OVER L/19 after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games with a combined average of 71 ppg scored. Washingtons HC DeBoer has seen his team score an average of 43.2 in his teams L/10 non conference games.

Play over

Two very explosive offenses go head to head here in the Orange bowl with Florida State averaging 37 ppg, and their opponent Georgia averaging 38.4 ppg. Both these teams can make top tier defenses look average and thats what Im betting on today in this Bowl game. 

My projections estimate a much higher scoring game than the linesmakers- with both sides scoring 28Plus points  Note: GEORGIA is 46-0 OVER L/46  when both teams score 28 or more points . FLORIDA ST is 46-4 OVER L/50 when both teams score 28 or more points . 

Norvell is 13-3 OVER  with extended rest in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 68.4 ppg scored. 

Smart is 11-3 OVER  after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of GEORGIA with a combined average of 59 ppg going on the board in those games. 

CFB team against the total (GEORGIA) - in a game involving two teams with 1.25 or less turnovers/game forced after 8+ games, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 33-14 OVER L/5 seasons for. a70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play over

Missouri has a strong QB and offense lead by their key arm under center  Brady Cook . With that said,  Im betting the Tigers do some damage here today. Meanwhile, despite of alot of transfer portal opt outs for Ohio State on offense the depth  of this top tier variety program  is very viable and and Im also betting  hold their own offensively no matter who the QB is. 

MISSOURI in their L/20 games in December games  have seen a combined average of 63.7 ppg scored.

CFB  teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (MISSOURI) - quick starting team - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG in the first half, after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 32-11 OVER  L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate fro bettors.

Play over

USC will be shorthanded offensively because of the portal transfer ,  but will still have  four-star QB under center along with a large group of tainted offensive players who I expect to take this opportunity to showcase their talents. Defensively Im also betting the Trojans stop units will once again struggle vs a Louisville side that can score in bunches. (Note: Trojans rank :Trojans defense ranks just 122nd in EPA per play and 118th in explosiveness) Yes on the flip side the Cardinal D has shown some staunch efforts overall but have also been torched,Georgia Tech (34 points, 488 yards ), Virginia (24 points, 434 yards ), Miami (31 points, 486 yards ), and Kentucky (38 points)

I project at least 28 points for the Trojans -Note: USC is 7-0 OVER   when both teams score 28 or more points this season with a combined average of 83.7 ppg scored.

LOUISVILLE is 9-1 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 70.2 ppg scored. 

USC is 15-4 OVER in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 73.1 ppg scored.USC is 15-3 OVER  after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 75.9 ppg scored. 

Play over

USC is 12-3 OVER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 73.5 ppg scored.

The  Minnesota Gophers allow 5.8 yards per play and have less than viable offense, and rank130th in Finishing Drives Allowed and red-zone scoring percentage allowed.  Meanwhile, as this season has progressed the bowl Green offense has improved and Im betting they do some damage here as they put up 49 , 31, 34 points respectively in L/3 games of the season . Meanwhile, the media has been making a big deal over whether starting quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis will not start for the Gophers  as he enters the transfer portal. But truth is the Gophers offense runs around their running game, as they move the ball via the rush more 60% of time behind, star RB  Darius Taylor who averages 5.7 yard per carry. Note:Falcons have struggled stopping the rush, ranking outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.

Everything points to this total being eclipsed. 

CFB teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (BOWLING GREEN/MINNESOTA) - in a game involving two poor offensive teams (280 to 330 YPG) are 120-62 OVER L/31 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

Florida State has average 38.3 ppg this season while Louisville has scored and average of 33 ppg and an average of 36 ppg on turf. My projections see the Cardinal/Florida State both scoring 28 plus points making this totals offering vulnerable  . Note: LOUISVILLE is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average fo 71.3 ppg scored. FLORIDA ST L/18 when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 60.5 ppg go on the board. 

Note:  Cardinal  last three matchups to end the regular season - vs. Virginia, at Miami and vs. Kentucky - saw them  Cardinal give  up and average of 31.0 points and 403.0 yards per game. Even with a third string QB expected to play, Im betting the Seminoles do enough damage to get this score to eclipse the total. 

LOUISVILLE L/25 games  after scoring 31 points or more in 4 straight games have seen a combined average of 58.6 ppg scored. Brohm is 20-5 OVER   when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 68.5 ppg scored. Brohm is 10-1 OVER  in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 72.4 ppg scored. 

Play over

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (LOUISVILLE) - quick starting team - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG in the first half, after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 32-9 OVER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

Liberty own an explosive offense that cannot be easily stopped not even from strong defensive units like New Mexico State. The Flames have averaged 39 ppg on offense at home this season, and Im betting they hit in the 30s again today. Meanwhile, New Mexico State has averaged 28.2 ppg this season, and will be forced into opening up , which Im betting results in a higher scoring tilt then the lines-makers are expecting. Note: Liberty's D, I would not describe as being of the top tier variety despite of their 12-0 record as has been evident lately, when allowing UTEP, 28 points and Mass 25 points , so I wont be surprised to see the Aggies put at least that many points on the board. Note: LIBERTY is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 74.3 ppg scored. NEW MEXICO ST is 6-0 OVER   when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 74.8 ppg scored.

NEW MEXICO ST is 28-14  L/42 OVER in a road game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 with a combined average of 64.6 ppg scored.

Play over

Arizona State has only averaged 17.7 ppg on offense this season, and will try very hard to slow the pace of this game down, via slow snap counts and their running game as they play for survival here vs an explosive foe, and that Im betting results in a lower scoring game than the linesmakers are projecting. 

ARIZONA ST is 26-11 L/37 UNDER  vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season with a combined average of 52.6 ppg scored. 

CFB Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (ARIZONA ST) - after gaining 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games against opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 26-4 UNDER L/31 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 40 points per game scored. 

Play on the under 

West Virginia has allowed 18.2 ppg at home this season, and Im betting they hold the inconsistent offense of the Cincinnati Bearkats within that range today.  Look for key mode of moving thte ball to be their fairly efficient run game , and slower snap counts to see them try to grind out  conservative game plan. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers average 213.8 rushing yards per game, No. 7 in the country and Im sure they will pound the ball again which in turn will eat alot of clock time. Lots of rsuh action makes for what Im projecting to be a combined score that stays on the low side of this totals offeirng. 

Brown is 12-4 UNDER  in November games as the coach of W VIRGINIA with a combined average of 47.3 ppg scored. 

CINCINNATI is 11-3 UNDER vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return over the last 3 seasons are  43.3 ppg scored. CINCINNATI is 11-3 UNDER (+7.7 Units) in road games after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons. with pf 46.4 ppg scored. CINCINNATI is 10-1 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games with a combined average of 43.3 ppg scored..

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (W VIRGINIA) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 36-8 UNDER L/31 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 44.8 ppg scored. 

Play under

Bulldogs. Quarterback Mike Wright, who led Vanderbilt to a win against  UK at Kroger Field is now playing for Mississippi State.  Wright   continues to be impress with his ability to make plays and  can elude the pocket and make plays with his legs and Im betting he has another strong effort today and helps his team with higher offensive production totals than the linesmakers expect. On the flipside the Wildcats  offense  really ramped up they're aerial attack   last Saturday night. Quarterback Devin Leary had a season-high 372 yards passing vs Tennessee and wide receiver Dane Key had his best game of the season and Im betting they build on that momentum in this tilt  With the running game the Wildcats most efficient mode of moving the ball a complete game is not out of the realm of possibility which makes for a much bigger point production than is expected. All in all we have value with taking the over here today.

My projections based on some higher edge probabilities estimates a much higher output than the linesmkaers. 

My projections estimate both sides will score 28+ points - Note: KENTUCKY is 51-1 OVER when both teams score 28 or more points since 1992.  MISSISSIPPI ST is 41-2 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points since 1992.

Stoops in 48   road games as the coach of KENTUCKY has seen a combined average of 49.2 ppg scored.

MISSISSIPPI ST is 6-0 OVER in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 61.8 ppg scored.

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 KENTUCKY/ (MISSISSIPPI ST) - in a game involving two average passing teams (6.4-7.5 PYA) after 7+ games.are 52-16 OVER L/5 seasons with the combined average score of 48.6 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER

Previous to their win last time out vs Navy by a 17-6 score the Air Force Cadets had scored 39,45, 49, 34  points respectively and in their opener this season jacked 42 points on the board.  This Flyboys side is explosive to say the least, and here today vs a Colorado State side allowing an average of 35.8 ppg and more than 40 points per game at home , Im projecting them to eclipse the 40 point plateau while Colorado State will fire back in desperation and do just enough damage to help us cash with an over wager vs  this very vulnerable number. 

AIR FORCE is 16-5 OVER  in road games when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) with he combined average of those games clicking in at 55.3 ppg. 

AIR FORCE is 33-18 OVER in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game with a combined average of 61.3 ppg scored.

CFB team against the total (COLORADO ST) - off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog against opponent off a double digit road win are 30-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 60.6 ppg.

CFB  Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (AIR FORCE) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game are 113-64 OVER L/10 seasons with a combined average of 52 ppg  going on the score board . 

Play on the over

The Bears are averaging 195.6 yards per game rushing, third-most in the Pac-12 and 19th nationally  and Im betting they try to grind away here in effort to slow this game down to keep the Trojans explosive attack of the field as much as possible -  which in turn will eat up alot of clock time.

CALIFORNIA is 14-3 UNDER  in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att with a combined average of 51.4 ppg scored. Wilcox is 8-1 UNDER  after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse as the coach of CALIFORNIA with a combined average of 41.7 ppg scored. Wilcox in his L/53 games against conference opponents has seen a combined average of 49.2 ppg scored. 

CFB Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (USC) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in conference games are 31-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 56.7 ppg scored. 

Liberty can destroy opposing Ds with their offense both through the air and on the ground via some very exotic play making as the offense has averaged 36.3 per game overall and 41.3 ppg in road tilts . Meanwhile, W.Kentucky has the ability to answer back with a offense that averages 41.3 ppg on offense at home this season.

On the flipside, the Hilltopers D, gives up a ton of yards on the ground and their secondary and  according to my own projections  and does not matchup well vs Liberty's well oiled aerial or ground assault. Meanwhile Liberty against Buffalo and Middle Tenn State allowed 27 and 35 points on the respectively this season,  and have shown themselves to be vulnerable vs decent offensive groups  (The Hilltoppers have far more fire power than either Buffalo or Middle Tenn State .With that said, Im betting Western Kentucky will do some offensive damage here today in a all out performance that will have huge implications on them getting a bowl invite as their record now stands at 4-3. Problem remains with the Hilltoppers D, and Liberty is a machine that wont be stopped by a pedestrian group. 

I know D, seems to standout in big  games, but the offensive talent and the lack of defensive talent on display here will trump that trend. 

My projections estimate both sides will score 28+ points. Note: LIBERTY is 16-0 OVER when both teams score 28 or more points with the combined average of 82.8 ppg scored.

Liberty projected to score  35 W.Kentucky to score  30 

Florida State enters this tilt having eclipsed the 30 point plateau in offensive production in 12 straight games, and is currently averaging  42.2 ppg overall in offense including 48.7 ppg in 3 road games. On the flip-side Duke, is averaging 31.2 ppg on offense and scored 41 points in their lone road game and are capable of decent offensive output even against viable Ds. I know both these teams have also displayed strong defenses, but as is evident by the line that favors FSU by 14 or more points, the linesmakers are expecting the Seminoles to do some scoring and run away with this game, and in that evident you can bet that Duke will open up their attack and speed their snap count up which will result in an even more wide open type of affair than many might expect. 

DUKE  vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 54.5 ppg scored.

FLORIDA ST  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 52.4 ppg scored.FLORIDA ST in their L/116 games  vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game have seen a combined average of 53.1 ppg scored. 

CFBl teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (DUKE) - off 2 or more consecutive unders, good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game are 67-35 OVER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the over

Two old Mountain West rivals go head to head today in what Im betting will be a back and forth affair. BYU is fresh off a bye week,  and Im betting their top tier offense will be ready and fresh for TCU sometimes viable D.  The Cougars were said to have worked on their running game with the extra prep time, and if they have made advancement it will make their already viable passing game even more tangible. Meanwhile,TCU would be all but eliminated from the Big 12 race with  a loss today, so you can bet they will also be primed to perform in aggressive fashion. 

BYU has averaged 32.5 ppg in offense on the road while allowing 34.5 ppg. Meanwhile TCU 34.5 ppg in offense at home. 

Injury update:BYU wide receivers Kody Epps and Parker Kingston will play for the Cougars against TCU. Epps was one of BYU's top wide receivers in 2022.

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (TCU) - off 2 or more consecutive unders, good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game are 64-32 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

MICHIGAN is 8-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 21.5 or more points over the last 2 seasons.MICHIGAN is 6-0 UNDER in home games after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points over the last 2 seasons

Liberty has averaged 36.8 ppg per game on offense this season, and 46.5 ppg on the road in two tilts. Meanwhile Jacksonville State has averaged 30.5 ppg on offense and Im betting they will have to open up here against a Liberty side that can put points on the board in bunches against the best of defenses. It must be noted that Veteran coach Rich Rodriguez is well respected  for his offensive prowess throughout his career and Im betting he formulates an aggressive effort here in this tilt. I know some of the current team trends might have many leaning to the under, but Im not one of them. 

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (LIBERTY/Jacksonville St) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (16-21 PPG), in conference games are 36-8 OVER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with a combined average of 70.7 ppg scored.

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (JACKSONVILLE ST) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (16-21 PPG), after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 22-3 OVER L/31 seasons for a 88% conversion rate with a combined average of 68.6 ppg scored. 

Play on the over