Eastern Conference - Second Round - Best Of 7 - Game 6

Atlanta took game 5 by a  109-106 score in Philadelphia  thanks to being able to slow the Sixers down defensively after going down early. Playing some physical hardcore D will continue to be the Hawks recipe for success vs a Sixers side that is streaky offensively. With that said, D, will also be the focus of the visitors in this big game, and Im betting will result in a tight lower scoring affair. 

Rivers is 38-21 UNDER  revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7or more in all games he has coached with a combined average of 197.8 ppg scored.

PHILADELPHIA is 13-5 UNDER  as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 215.6 ppg scored. Under is 11-5 in 76ers last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

ATLANTA is 15-1 UNDER L/16  when attempting to close out a playoff series with a combined average of 174.5 ppg scored.  ATLANTA is 24-7 UNDER   when leading in a playoff series with a combined average of 185.6 ppg scored. Under is 10-3 in Hawks last 13 overall.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points against opponent off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog are 42-17 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

With this series tied 2-2 and the clippers offense hitting on all cylinders entering game 5  Im now expecting the explosive Jazz to take an aggressive stance tonight, and come out firing on all cylinders on their own home floor, which Im betting will see the Clippers have to open up as well in a tilt that I have projected to eclipse this total. Utah  in 7 home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season have seen a combined average of  228.9 ppg scored. LA Clippers  in their L/76  road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots over the last 3 seasons  have seen a combined average of 224.6 ppg go on the board. 

Play OVER 

Eastern Conference - Second Round - Best Of 7 - Game 5-

No Irving or Harden in the lineup for the Nets has this Totals number taking a dive that is in my betting opinion over done by both the lines-makers and the market. Yes these games have been lower than the expected as compared to the  totals offerings but with the current number according to projections being transiently low  a high probability edge for an over wagering opportunity cashing looks promising in my humble betting opinion. 

With Milwaukee off two straight wins, Im betting they look to take advantage of this Nets injury situation with an aggressive approach which result in the pace here being favorable for an over wager to cash. 

Milwaukee is 12-4 OVER off a home win by 10 points or more this season with a combined average of 237.2 ppg scored.

BROOKLYN is 13-4 OVER  off an upset loss as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 238 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BROOKLYN) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 93-46 OVER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate.

Play on the OVER 

The Jazz looked defensively lazy last time out, and were starting to rely on their offensive explosiveness to just run over opponents. The last game in this series that saw the Jazz get blasted was a wake up call for them, and now Im expecting a more defensive minded effort and also for the Clippers to regress offensively which Im betting results in a lower scoring affair as compared to the offered total. Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 7-2 in Jazz last 9 games following a straight up loss. 

Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.Under is 8-2-1 in Clippers last 11 games following a straight up win.Under is 7-2-2 in Clippers last 11 Conference Semifinals games.Under is 7-2-1 in Clippers last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.

.LA CLIPPERS are 31-17 UNDER when they have the around same number of rebounds as their opponents in a game over the last 2 seasons.

UTAH is 32-15 UNDER  as a # 1 seed in the playoffs since 1996 with a combined average of 191.1 ppg scored. 

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (UTAH) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 102-44 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

These teams have not gone over the total in 4 of their L/5 meetings.

Play UNDER

The Suns behind the 26th ranked pace, Im betting will precisely attack this game like they have every play off game to date, with patience and precision. They have Denver on the verge of elimination, and now without panic will methodically continue to play a top tier brand of defence, and take high %shot opportunities. This type of approach is a must here in the high altitudes of the Mile High city and this Im betting translates in a lower combined score than the offered total. 

DENVER is 20-9 UNDER  after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games this season. Denver in their L/78  home games after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more have seen a combined average of 192.2 ppg go on the scoreboard. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 100-41 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHOENIX) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 39-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER

The LA Clippers success and failure is predicated on playing to tier defensive hoops, that is ranked 4th in ppg D and a precise mind set that is evident by a 28th ranked pace. Tonight Im betting that type of basketball will be on full display as they desperately need to win this game to avoid going down 3-0 in this series. Also betting on Rudy Gobert to continue his top tier defensive play and for the Jazz to show their ability to also play strong D wull be on full display.  With that said, I expect we see a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers might expect. 

Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.

 UTAH is 32-14 UNDER  as a # 1 seed in the playoffs with a combined average of 190.1 ppg. Snyder is 105-84 UNDER  off a home win as the coach of UTAH with a combined average of 207.1 ppg scored.

LA CLIPPERS are 13-4 UNDER when they make 32% to 38% of their three point attempts in a game this season with a combined average of 214.3 ppg scored. Under is 7-1-2 in Clippers last 10 Conference Semifinals games.

LA CLIPPERS are 15-7 UNDER versus good passing teams, averaging  23 or more  assists/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 218.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA CLIPPERS) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 34-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (UTAH) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 38-12 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

This Total offers value as my own simplified pace and shooting statistics algorithm chart indicates. The 76ers shot 54.9 % FG in game one and 52.9% in game 2. Atlanta shot over 51% in game 1 but fell to just over 45% in game 2.  Ny projections estimate the Hawks will shoot  above or around their season average here at home of around  48% while the Sixers will regress to the high 40s as well or better , which translates in a combined score that breaches this total.  

ATLANTA is 10-1 OVER  at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 238.8 ppg scored.

Over is 5-0 in 76ers last 5 games following a ATS win.

Over is 5-0 in 76ers last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.

Play OVER 

The Clippers behind the 28th ranked pace and 4th ranked ppg defense in the NBA will continue to disrupt the flow of the explosive Utah Jazz in a game I have pegged to be physical and to stay under the the offered total.

 LA CLIPPERS are 15-6 UNDER versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game - 2nd half of the season this season have seen a combined average 218.5 ppg scored. LA CLIPPERS are 13-3 UNDER as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.7 ppg scored. Under is 7-0-2 in Clippers last 9 Conference Semifinals games.

UTAH is 49-21 UNDER  off a close home win by 3 points or less with a combined average of 190.1 ppg going on the scoreboard.UTAH is 32-13 UNDER  as a # 1 seed in the playoffs with a combined average of just 189.3 ppg going on the score board.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (UTAH) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 50-19 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Utah.

Play UNDER

Both these top tier  teams have alot of fire power and big name stars in the lineup but this series Im betting will continue to be more physical than anticipated .  Remember this is not a international competition and or an all star game, its NBA post season action which has a tendency  of producing alot more battles on the inside, which can make a game have alot less flow and thus less points going on the board.

MILWAUKEE is 11-3 UNDER  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season with a combined average of 125.7 ppg. 

BROOKLYN is 17-8 UNDER  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 226.7 ppg going on the board.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN/MILWAUKEE) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 28-3 L/24 seasons for a 90% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

Denver behind the 27th ranked pace and No.8 ppg offense  operates at a precise speed behind precision shooting but Im betting they will be forced to speed up their play against a Phoenix side that they do not matchup well against overall. The Suns put 122 points on the board in the opening game of this series, and after watching that tilt, I feel strongly the Nuggets will have to go on the attack more aggressively vs a explosive offensive side that ranks 7th in the NBA in ppg offense that can and will will fire back with some consistent offensive fireworks of their own in a tilt that will Im betting easily eclipse this total.Note:  6 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons here in Arizona.

DENVER is 11-2 OVER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70% or better) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.1 ppg scored.DENVER is 9-1 OVER after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 235.6 ppg going on the board. DENVER is 8-0 OVER after allowing 105 points or more 5 straight games this season with a combined average of 239.3 ppg going on the board.

PHOENIX is 24-9 OVER  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better  of their attempts this season with a combined average of 228.8 ppg going on the board.PHOENIX is 13-4 OVER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season with a combined average of 230.6 ppg going on the. board.PHOENIX is 16-4 OVER after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season with a combined average of 229.7 ppg going on the board.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games are 25-5 OVER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (DENVER) - after allowing 120 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 225 points or more are 277-178 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER

Utah was able to run over the Memphis Grizzlies in their first round series, but Im betting their offensive flow will not be as fluid here vs a LA Clippers team that can ramp things up defensively . Im betting on hardcore action on the inside to be key for the Clippers and for a very physical series to manifest itself in game 1 of their competition vs a explosive Utah  side that  they know they must handle with kid gloves. 

LA CLIPPERS are 18-8 UNDER  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.3 ppg scored. LA CLIPPERS are 12-3 UNDER as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.4 ppg scored. Under is 6-0-2 in Clippers last 8 Conference Semifinals games. Under is 20-5-2 in Clippers last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

UTAH is 31-13 UNDER  as a # 1 seed in the playoffs since 1996 with a combined average of 182.6 ppg scored. Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (/LAC /UTAH) - in a playoff game, in the 1rst game of a playoff series are 40-16 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons here in Salt Lake City. 

Play UNDER

Game 1 in this series was a high octane affair thanks to the Sixers  slow start and that saw them try to catch up furiously by chasing a DD deficit .  Im now looking for the experienced Sixers who key to success is top tier D, to come out here with a more physical game plan, that will center on taking the young Hawks out of a steady flow. This will result in a lower scoring affair than the Totals offering might indicate. 

Under is 4-0 in Hawks last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Under is 5-1 in Hawks last 6 playoff games as an underdog. 

ATLANTA is 9-0  L/9 UNDER in road games off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog  with a combined average of 182.9 ppg scored.ATLANTA is 23-7 UNDER   when leading in a playoff series with a combined average of 184.1 ppg scored.

PHILADELPHIA is 35-17 L/52 UNDER in home games after a combined score of 235 points or more with a combined average score of 212.2 ppg scored. Under is 13-4 in 76ers last 17 games following a ATS loss.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHILADELPHIA) - a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, on Tuesday nights are 54-23 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.Under is 7-0 in 76ers last 7 Tuesday games. 

Play on the UNDER

The two most recent meetings in this series have eclipsed the number, with a combined average of '244 ppg going on the board. Rinse and repeat for an over wager. 

PHOENIX is 23-9 OVER  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36%  or better of their attempts this season with a combined average of 228.9 ppg scored. PHOENIX is 12-4 OVER versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 231 ppg going on the board.

DENVER is 7-0 OVER after allowing 105 points or more 5 straight games this season with a combined average of 241 ppg scored. DENVER is 15-4 OVER  when playing 5 or less games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 236.4 ppg scored.Malone is 17-4 OVER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70% or better ) - 2nd half of the season as the coach of DENVER with a combined average of 227.4 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PHOENIX) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, playing with 3 or more days rest are 32-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games are 24-5 OVER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, playing with 3 or more days rest are 48-20 OVER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate. 

Five of the L/6 meetings in this series here in Phoenix have gone over the total. 

Play OVER

Watching the first game of this series, and than applying pace numbers, and the fact that the play off hoops between top tier teams are usually more physical than regular season games, than a projected  combined score of the high 220s makes this total beatable according to my estimates. 

MILWAUKEE is 23-12 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.5 ppg scored. 

Budenholzer is 38-23 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) as the coach of MILWAUKEE with a combined average of 222.5 ppg. 

Under is 6-1 in Bucks last 7 games as a road underdog. Under is 6-1 in Bucks last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 45-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 26-3 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 90% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

Kawhi Leonard and the Los Angeles Clippers will play host to Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks with a spot in the second round, and a matchup against the Utah Jazz, on the line and because of what's at stake they will both leave everything on the floor in what Im betting will be a much higher scoring affair than some of the previous games in this series. If the game is close down the stretch and one teams pulls ahead late expect a boatload full of fouls  and points, and if one side is up big dont expect them to take the foot off the proverbial gas pedal at which point the game will open up.  Other variables including OT, also take precedence for me in making this an over wager on a fairly low total according to my projections which make the number 216 which is a 2 possession difference.   

DALLAS in 30 games as an underdog this season have seen a combined average of 215.9 ppg scored.DALLAS in their L/ 23 games revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season have seen a combined average of 217.1 ppg. DALLAS L/35   road games after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 231.1 ppg scored.  Over is 7-2 in Mavericks last 9 road games.

LA CLIPPERS in their L/18 games  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season this season have seen a combined average of 215.7 ppg scored. Clippers in their L/9 home games as a favorite have seen a combined average of 217.4 ppg scored. 

Play OVER

Its obvious both these sides are obvious with explosive offenses, but at this time of year during the post season, a much more physical brand of hoops is going to be played. With that said, Im betting these two heavyweights slowly accustom themselves to their opposition, and for the inside action to take the form of a ufc battle zone. Edge under. 

Under is 5-1 in Bucks last 6 games as a road underdog.Under is 5-1 in Bucks last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 5-2 in Bucks last 7 Conference Semifinals games.Under is 21-10 in Bucks last 31 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

MILWAUKEE is 25-14 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.9 ppg scored.

Budenholzer in 144 career games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) in all games he has coached  has seen a combined average score of 210.8 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 32-4 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 43-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Western Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 6

According to the overall pace of this series and style of play my projections suggests a tilt where both teams score 107+  points which gives us an edge to the over on a total that I have projected at 219 which gives us a full possession plus advantage on this offered number, Note: DALLAS is 33-7 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 235.9 ppg. LA CLIPPERS are 32-6 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 232.3 ppg going on the board.

DALLAS in 42 games when the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons has seen a combined average of 221.1 ppg scored.

Clippers HC Lue is 17-5 OVER  after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games in all games with a combined average of 228.3 ppg scored. 

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DALLAS) - bad pressure defensive team - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game, on Friday nights are 47-17 OVER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

If the Lakers have any chance of salvaging this series, they are going to have to come out of their defensive shell and open up. This Im betting leads to a much higher scoring game affair than  the lines-makers expect. PHOENIX is 9-1 OVER off a home blowout win by 20 points or more this season with a combined average of 237.5 ppg scored.PHOENIX is 11-1 OVER after a blowout win by 20 points or more this season with a combined average of 237.4 ppg going on the board. 

NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (PHOENIX) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games are 78-41 OVER  L/24 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

These teams have been playing back forth high scoring  hoops this entire series and nothing will change tonight.  All 4 games in this series have gone over with the L/3 showing a combined average score of 245 ppg scored. Rinse and repeat.

MEMPHIS is 16-7 OVER  in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 235.4 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 9-1 OVER  as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points this season with a combined average of 238.7 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 16-6 OVER  after 2 or more consecutive overs this season with a combined average of 236.4 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 13-3 OVER  in road games after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games this season with a combined average of 237.8 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (MEMPHIS/UTAH) - after 3 or more consecutive overs against opponent after 4 or more consecutive overs are 43-18 OVER L/24 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

  The Wizards went full tilt last time out, and avoided elimination ,behind the No.1 pace in the league, and now on the verge of elimination Im betting they attack in all out fashion which in turn will force the Sixers to open up , which will than result in what I project will be a fairly high scoring affair that eclipses this offered number. PHILADELPHIA is 23-8 OVER  in home games off a road loss over the last 3 seasons with a combined average .  Over is 5-1 in 76ers last 6 games as a favorite.

 WASHINGTON is 20-9 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 245.3 ppg scored. WASHINGTON is 16-6 OVER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season with a combined average of 244.4 ppg going on the board. Over is 11-4-1 in Wizards last 16 playoff games as an underdog.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 100-49 OVER L/24 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - after a combined score of 215 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 404-271 OVER L/5 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors. 

Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Philadelphia.

Play on the OVER 

The first 3 games of this series , saw this offered total eclipsed and despite of a lower combined score ,last time out, Im betting on a overall pace increase here as Denver in energized form will look to run the Blazers out of building in the thin air of the mile high city in what will be a fast paced affair.  

PORTLAND in 31 games  when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season have seen a combined average of 228.2 ppg scored. DENVER is 14-4 OVER when playing 5 or less games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 233 ppg scored. 

PORTLAND is 19-9 OVER in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 234.1 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PORTLAND) - after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, playing with 2 days rest are 36-13 L/24 seasons for a 74% conversion rate.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DENVER) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (82 or more  shots/game), after a game where a team made 35% of their shots or worse are 53-26 L/24 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER

The Sixers clobbered the Wizards last time out 132-103  and  by the end of that game you could see the DC group was  in a dejected mood, which Im betting will carry into this game. Meanwhile, Philly Im betting will regress offensively while continuing to play a top teir brand of defense that ranks 6th in the league in ppg allowed. WASHINGTON is 15-7 UNDER after a loss by 10 points or more this season with a combined average of 223.4 ppg scored. 

PHILADELPHIA in 18  road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season have seen a combined average of 213.7 ppg scored. PHILADELPHIA is 13-3 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 225.9 ppg scored.PHILADELPHIA is 18-4 UNDER in the 4th game of a playoff series since 1996 with a combined average of 184.2 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHILADELPHIA) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 215 points or more are 47-18 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 72% conversion rate.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (WASHINGTON) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off a road blowout win by 20 points or more are 52-25 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 68% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

This is a pivotal game in this series and /Im betting the Suns down 2-1 in this series  will have to be more aggressive offensively and try to push the Lakers out of their comfort zone. This Im betting leads to a much higher scoring affair than the first 3 games of this series saw. 

LAKERS in 33 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season have seen a combined average of 214 ppg scored. 

PHOENIX is 21-12 OVER  versus teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 225.5 ppg. 

Play OVER 

The opus Morandi of the NY Knicks has been a grinding defensive  style of hoops and nothing changes here today. The Knicks rank 26th in ppg offense No.1 in ppg defense and No.30 in pace in the NBA. With that said, Im betting on a very physical game here as NY will continue to try to disrupt the Hawks flow. This Im betting results in a fairly low scoring affair that fails to eclipse this offered  number. 

NEW YORK lost game 2  here in Atlanta in this series and are also 16-4 UNDER revenging a road loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 207.1 ppg scored.

 NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (ATLANTA) - in a game involving two good three point shooting teams (36.5% or better) after 42+ games, after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 43-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The last game in this series was a high scoring offensive slugfest , but now in game 3 Im expecting regression from these offenses and for the Grizzlies to step up their defensive play here at home  and for Utah to follow suit behind the No.3 ranked ppg D in the NBA . 

UTAH is 31-10 UNDER  as a # 1 seed in the playoffs since 1996 with a combined average of 185.4 ppg scored. Under is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  Under is 9-3 in Jazz last 12 games playing on 2 days rest.

MEMPHIS is 19-4 UNDER  after a combined score of 245 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.5 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 assists/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 218.6 ppg scored.

Jenkins is 13-2 UNDER after allowing 130 points or more as the coach of MEMPHIS with a combined average of 211.9 ppg going on the board. 

Jenkins is 13-1 UNDER  in home games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days as the coach of MEMPHIS  with a combined average of 215.9 ppg scored.Jenkins is 9-0 UNDER   in home games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games as the coach of MEMPHIS with a combined average of 219 ppg going on the score board.Jenkins is 15-4 UNDER in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of MEMPHIS with a combined average of 218.9 ppg scored. 

Under is 37-15 in Grizzlies last 52 home games.

Under is 21-10 in Grizzlies last 31 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MEMPHIS) - averaging 9 or more steals/game on the season, on Saturday games are 47-18 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (UTAH) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 69-34 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Under is 31-9 in the last 40 meetings in Memphis.

Play UNDER

Down 2 -0 in this series the Wizards 3rd ranked ppg offense and 1st ranked pace  will have to open up and play the type of hoops they were built to play and because of their 30th ranked ppg defense the edge goes to what Im betting will be a high scoring game. I know the Sixers are a defense first team but they will also be forced to open up which they can do well when pushed. This game projects to be in the 230s (combined score). 

This total is still relevant even if Russell Westbrook does not play for the Wizards tonight. 

WASHINGTON is 13-3 OVER revenging 4 or more losses vs opponent in last 2 years over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 243.1 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

WASHINGTON is 14-6 OVER (+7.4 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season with a combined score of 245.3 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHILADELPHIA) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series are 34-14 OVER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (WASHINGTON) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 39-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (WASHINGTON) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 44-19 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER

 Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 3

Boston is now down 2-0 in this series after 130-108 loss last time out. Unfortunately now for the Celtics they are going to have to open up if they have any chance of competing , which Im betting leads to a fairly high scoring affair here in game 3. Note: Over is 20-8-1 in Celtics last 29 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  Over is 6-0 in Celtics last 6 home games. 

BOSTON is 8-1 OVER in home games after allowing 120 points or more this season with a combined average of 237.1 ppg scored. BOSTON is 11-2 OVER  in home games off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 232.7 ppg scored.

BROOKLYN in 70 games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season have seen a combined average of 233 ppg scored. BROOKLYN is 23-11 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 235.8 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BOSTON) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 39-9 OVER L5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BROOKLYN) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, playing with 2 days rest are 31-11 OVER L/24 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (BROOKLYN) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 41-16 OVER L/24 seasons for a 72% conversion rate.

Play OVER 

Memphis has been a dangerous opponent for all comers as this season has progressed and their aggressiveness has. been obvious, for anyone watching. Nothing will change tonight as they will come right back at the talented Jazz and force their opponent to open up in what Im betting will be a high scoring affair. Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Utah.MEMPHIS in 24    road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season have seen a combined average of 233.6 ppg scored.

 Over is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 playoff games as an underdog. Over is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games.

Jenkins is 14-1 OVER in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 as the coach of MEMPHIS with a combined average of 231.5 ppg scored.Jenkins is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) in road games after having won 4 of their last 5 games as the coach of MEMPHIS with a combined average of 237 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (UTAH) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less are 34-11 OVER L/24 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the OVER 

The Philadelphia 76ers are built for post season hoops and Im betting their top tier defense  and physical style of play will try to slow down the run and gun Wizards  which will result in a much lower scoring tilt than the linesmakers might expect here in game 2 of this series. I know game one saw a higher scoring final result but Im betting the Wizards will feel the effects of a grueling schedule and the physical tenacity of game one which will result in a less explosive offensive effort.    PHILADELPHIA iin 22 games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 215.4 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHILADELPHIA) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 115 points or more are 53-18 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHILADELPHIA) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after allowing 115 points or more are 41-10 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHILADELPHIA) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 27-8 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (WASHINGTON) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days against opponent extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 39-19 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Denver will play this game with desperation as they do not want to go down 2-0  to Portland and completely obliterate their home court advantage. Finally adjustments will be made especially from a defensive perspective and their game will take on a stronger defensive focus which Im betting results in a combined score that stays on the low side of the offered total. Note:DENVER is 8-0 UNDER  revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score of these tilts ringing in at 212.1 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record for 110-71L/24 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PORTLAND) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 100-58 L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate.

Play on the UNDER 

The Lakers opus Morandi  has  been based on playing solid defense this season, but this team with players like James and Davis can gear it up with the best of teams offensively and today Im betting their going to have to do just that , vs a Suns side that Im betting will be very aggressive in transition .

The suns in their 72 games this season have seen a combined average of 224.8 ppg scored. 

PHOENIX is 8-1 OVER  in home games after a win by 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 231.1 ppg going on the score board. 

NBA  teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (LAL/PHOENIX) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, playing with 3 or more days rest are 30-8 OVER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

This play off game is being played early in the afternoon here on the west coast, and Im expecting a slower grinding game that will result in a lower scoring affair. Add to that the Clippers modus operandi is based on a more physical precise game plan behind the  28th ranked pace and the 4th best ppg defense and the 10th ranked ppg offense. Under is 6-0-2 in Clippers last 8 playoff games as a favorite.

Meanwhile, Dallas , is 13-1 UNDER   versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots this season with a combined average of 214 ppg scored and are  8-0 UNDER   vs. excellent 3 point shooting teams - making  39% or better of their attempts this season with a combined average of 213 ppg scored  and 12-3 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season with a combined average of 216 .6 ppg scored.DALLAS is also 10-1 UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season with a combined average of 212.5 ppg scored. So what Im getting at  here is that Mavs HC Carlisle adjusts his game against teams like the Clippers which   always look has me look at the offered total with a lower scoring result in mind. With that said, Im betting this number is beatable with an under wager. 

Note: Dallas ranks 9th in ppg defense, and 17 in ppg offense, and run at a slow 24th ranked pace. Under is 6-0 in Mavericks last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Under is 20-6 in Mavericks last 26 games as an underdog.Under is 13-4 in Mavericks last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Play UNDER 

Indiana plays a one way style of hoops, and cannot adapt  to what can sometimes be a grinding  style play off basketball  in any way shape or form. Its not an attack on them its just the way  their built to run and gun, and thats what they will do. The Pacers rank 5th in pace in the league, 25th in ppg allowed and 6th in ppg offense. Meanwhile, Washington ranked No.1 in pace and 30th in ppg allowed and 3rd in offensive ppg output , and run their attack in a very    similar way  to the Pacers, and operate a game paln that is suited for high octane action. With that said, Im betting on both sides, to come out here and blaze a trail on the court and for this combined score to eclipse this offered number. Yes, the first game only saw 218 combined points but this game Im betting sees the Wizards attack from the beginning and for the Pacers to have to follow suit or be blown off the court. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (INDIANA) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 50-17 OVER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (INDIANA) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 41-14 OVER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 37-17 OVER L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

INDIANA is 7-0 OVER  in road games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season with a combined average of 239.5 ppg scored. INDIANA is 11-2 OVER after 2 or more consecutive wins this season with a combined average of 240.2 ppg scored. Bjorkgren is 10-1 OVER in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points as the coach of INDIANA.

Over is 11-1 in Wizards last 12 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Over is 20-6 in Wizards last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Play OVER 

Western Conference - Play-In Game - Game 1

Memphis ranks 6th in defensive rating in the league and in the middle of the pack in offensive output ppg and as the season was winding down began to play alot more attention to defensive play and ended going under in 6 of their L/7 trips to the hardwood. Meanwhile, The Spurs rank 15th in pace and 21st in offensive ppg efficiency and in 3 of their L/9 games failed to eclipse the 99 point plateau against similar type systematic teams ( NYK and twice vs Utah) . Im betting the Spurs one again struggle with flow vs a Grizzlies group that has become well adapted at  suffocating their opponents flow.  MEMPHIS is 15-7 UNDER   in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season with a combined average of 215.7 ppg going on the score board in those 22 games.

MEMPHIS is 12-2 UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216 ppg going on the scoreboard.  MEMPHIS is 20-8 UNDER in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game this season with a combined average of 218 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

MEMPHIS is 8-1 UNDER  in home games vs. poor rebounding teams - out-rebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season with a combined average of 219 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 8-0 UNDER   in home games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. MEMPHIS is 12-1 UNDER   in home games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.1 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SAN ANTONIO/MEMPHIS ) - in a playoff game, in the 1rst game of a playoff series are 33-10 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Washington plays a one way style of wide open hoops, and are not not suited to play off basketball in my humble opinion and will have issues operating in a more physical grinding  environment. Meanwhile, the Celtics now without  the services Jaylen Brown will need to readapt their game, and pay alot more attention to defense in transition which Im betting will help keep this game total combined score stay on the low side of the the total. 

UNDER is 5-0 L/5 meetings.

 NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (WASHINGTON/BOSTON ) - in a playoff game, in the 1rst game of a playoff series are 32-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER 

The Heat after going over in 10 straight high octane  games took part in a grinding affair with Philadelphia last time out and came out of it with a 106-94 victory that saw the combined score stay on the low side of the number. Now as the Heat prepare for the post season, with a  looser mind set we have a event that  will set up for a high scoring  affair vs a non post season opponent that will also be playing with nothing to lose which will have them open up. 

  DETROIT is 11-0 OVER  after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 228.6 ppg. 

Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 games as a road favorite and have gone over in  4 straight  in Heat last 4 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Over is 5-1 in Heat last 6 road games. Over is 13-3 in Heat last 16 games as a favorite. 

Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Play OVER

The Lakers who are ranked No.1 in the NBA in defensive efficiency  opus operandi bases it successes and failures on playing a tough defensive system that plays a great deal to transitional play. Considering Indiana runs a all out take no prisoners style of hoops its obvious that two different styles will go  head to head here. However Im betting on the superior side solidifying that future play off game plan by making sure their will is imposed, which will see this game grind at a slower pace than the lines-makers expect or project. Also generally speaking  afternoon action has a way of being slower paced than games played later in the day or night, thus adding to my belief that this combined score fails to eclipse the total. 

Note: Indiana is off a big time offensive slugfest last time out  losing 143-132 to the Bucks  , and Im betting they will regress here with less energy  and offensive efficiency. INDIANA is 21-8 L/29 UNDER  after scoring 130 points  with the average combined score clicking in at 210.6 ppg. INDIANA is 13-3 UNDER  in home games after allowing 130 points  with a combined average of 201.8 ppg. 

LA LAKERS are 28-11 UNDER  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season with the combined average score of 212.1 ppg going on the board. LA LAKERS are 32-15 UNDER (+15.5 Units) versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season with the average combined score clicking at 215.1 ppg .  LA LAKERS are 22-7 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 215.1 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (INDIANA) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (102 or more  PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 130 points or more are 68-34 UNDER  L/24 seasons for a 67% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA LAKERS) - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%), after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are 150-96 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Brooklyn has solidified its defensive play of late as they prepare for post season hoops and nothing changes here today vs the Bulls.  Meanwhile, the Bulls continue to play good defense and have held 3 of their L/5 opponents to 99 point ore less. This afternoon Im betting on a continuation of this type of top tier D by both sides in a games that Im betting  stays under the the offered total.  

CHICAGO is 13-3 UNDER  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 215.4 ppg going on the board. CHICAGO is 12-2 UNDER  against Atlantic division opponents this season with a combined average of 216.1 ppg scored.  Under is 9-0 in Bulls last 9 overall. Under is 6-0 in Bulls last 6 games as an underdog.

Under is 9-4 in Nets last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (CHICAGO) - off an home win scoring 110 or more points, on Saturday games are 42-17 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games are 45-18 L/24 seasons for a 72% conversion rate of bettors. 

Play UNDER 

The Suns have gone over 7 straight times and their L/6 games have eclipsed this offered total. Meanwhile, the visiting Blazers are currently in high octane over drive, ranking 5th in the league on ppg offense and 4th in offensive rating, but just 22nd in ppg defense and a ugly 29th ranking in defensive rating. Looking at current form, and the overall data, it becomes obvious that in general terms that this game should be a high scoring slugfest. 

Play OVER 

The Heat have had great success of late pushing the tempo of their games, and as a result have gone over 10 straight times. Im betting that the Sixers if they are keen on winning this game , will have to match the Heats pace and that will result in a higher scoring affair than the lines-makers expect. 

MIAMI is 8-0 OVER  after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite this season with the average combined score clicking in at 232.5 ppg.MIAMI is 8-1 OVER  in home games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season with a. combined 224.9 ppg scored.MIAMI is 12-1 OVER  after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season with a combined average of 224 ppg scored.

Philadelphia dating back to last season in their L/68 road games have seen a combined average of 221.3 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

The Rockets obviously have nothing left to play for, but an opportunity to upend  the defending champs Im betting  is something that will motivate them and push them into action. They have been playing a wide open brand of hoops lately and nothing should change here at Staples tonight Note: Houston has  combined with their opponents to average of 250+ ppg in tier L/5 games overall.  Meanwhile, at this time of year teams like the Lakers are gearing up for the play offs and looking to gain momentum. I know the Lakers D has been key to their successes this season, but they also need to generate some offense , and will push forward here aggressively either out of need or greed which will see this tilt turn into a higher scoring game than the pundits might expect.HOUSTON in 7 games  as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points this season have seen a combined average of 245 ppg scored.Over is 5-0 in Rockets last 5 overall.

Play OVER 

The Nets continue to play a much better brand of hoops of late as they pay special attention to their defensive responsibilities as the play offs approach. After playing last night the Nets will not be in a run and gun formation anyway and their tired legs could easily see them trying to grind this game down a bit to a slower pace vs the Spurs which should limit wide open back forth action which will relate to a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers expect.  Nets are 5-1  UNDER L/6 games. The Nets are 0-11 L/11 UNDER at home off a win in a road game in which they had assists on at least 70 percent of their field goals with a combined average of 199.1 ppg going on the board.

 Under is 16-5 L/21 meetings in Brooklyn. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 25-9 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog are 28-10 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 74% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

The Chicago Bulls are playing a strong brand of defensive hoops of late holding three straight opponents to less than 99 points, with all 3 affairs generating wins for them.  Im betting that because of their recent successes that type of basketball will continue to be played tonight vs the talented  high flying Brooklyn Nets which will directly effect the pace of this game. Also with the play offs approaching the Nets have noticed are staring to pay attention to a better brand of defensive hoops that has resulted in the under cashing in 8 of their L/12 overall.  CHICAGO is 10-2 UNDER   against Atlantic division opponents this season with a combined average of 215 ppg scored. In 33 home games this season the Bulls have seen a combined average score of 220.4 go on the score board.

CHICAGO is 9-1 UNDER in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season with a combined average of 214.2 ppg scored. CHICAGO is 11-3 UNDER versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 214.8 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CHICAGO) - after a cover as a double digit favorite, on Tuesday nights are 29-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 30-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

Clippers are gearing up for play off basketball by playing a top tier brand of D that has resulted in 8 straight unders.With Toronto playing short handed here Im betting Nurse will employ a conservative posture that will see a combined score that stays on the low side of the total.

TORONTO is 13-1 UNDER  versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at 206.9 ppg scored.TORONTO is 20-7 UNDER  versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 213.3 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

Golden States Curry has averaged   37.7 per game in his past 15 contests as the Warriors offense goes into warp speed when he is on the floor behind the leagues 2nd ranked pace. Meanwhile, Utah a team that ranks 1st in ppg offense in the league  is more than capable of responding with offensive fireworks of their own, which Im betting will deliver a higher scoring affair that will see this totals number eclipsed. 

Over is 4-1-1 in Jazz last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Warriors/ Jazz 6-0 OVER L/6 meetings . The last 2 meetings this season, have seen 235 and 250 combined points go on the board. 

Play on the OVER 

 The Clippers recently completed a three-game season sweep over their crosstown rivals, rolling the Los Angeles Lakers 118-94 on Thursday and its obvious their defense is rolling in top gear, and knowing the Knicks opus operandi is based on top tier defense and nothing changes today as Im betting on a low scoring grinder. 

NEW YORK in 62 games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season have seen a combined average of 211.9 ppg scored. 

The Knicks are 0-12 UNDER L/12 with rest coming off a loss in which they led by double digits.

NEW YORK is 19-8 UNDER  versus good rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (NEW YORK) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 52-24 UNDER  L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER 

The Celtics are 16-0 OVER L/16  off a road loss in a in which they had at least 30% of their points from threes with a combined average of 236 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BOSTON) - off an upset loss of 15 points or more as a road favorite are 27-9 OVER L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Miami is 7-0 OVER L/7. 

Play OVER 

Denver has the 9th ranked ppg defense in the NBA and owns the 26th ranked pace. So needless to say they are fairly methodical in their approach considering their successes. Nothing will change tonight at home in the Mile High city  against a talented Nets group that despite of being able to put points on the board in bunches  knows playing a better brand of defense as the post season approaches is very important. With that said, Im betting that this game will see some special attention to playing good transitional hoops which will reflect a muted response  on the score board then the pundits might expect. 

BROOKLYN is 8-1 UNDER in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 225.2 ppg scored. BROOKLYN is 24-11 UNDER  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 220.2 ppg scored in those 35 titls. 

DENVER is 10-1 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 214.2 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Houston has been opening up of late, and are off a big time back and forth tilt vs Milwaukee last time out losing by a 141-131 count. However today Im betting on regression from the Rockets offense and energy depletion to rare its ugly head as they play their 5th game in 8 nights. Meanwhile, Utah is off a hard fought tilt vs Denver last night, and will also find them selves playing on tired legs and in an emotional letdown state which Im betting produces a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers expect. 

Under is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 23-11-1 in Rockets last 35 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

HOUSTON is 25-6 UNDER L/31 vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game - 2nd half of the season  with a combined average of 203.5 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 22-12 UNDER  versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 222.8 ppg scored. 

 UTAH is 13-5 UNDER vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season with a combined average of 216.7 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (UTAH) - a very good team (7 or more  PPG diff.) against a terrible team (7 or less PPG diff.) after 42 or more games, after a combined score of 205 points or more are 25-4 UNDER L/24 seasons  for a 86% conversion rate. 

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Play UNDER

Spurs are on tired legs as they play their 4th straight road game in 7 days and off a game last night. That will effect their pace, vs a Portland side that has allowed their opposition 109 points or less in 4 of their L/6 games. The Spurs are 0-14 UNDER L/14 off a game as a favorite in which they committed fewer than 15 fouls. 

Under is 7-2 in Trail Blazers last 9 games as a home favorite.

Under is 9-3 in Trail Blazers last 12 home games.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, tired team - playing their 4th road game in 7 days are 60-28 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

Oklahoma City rank dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency , and have failed to eclipse the 99 point threshold in 4 of their L/6 overall while Golden State despite of super star Curry in the lineup are ranked 23rd in offensive efficiency. When these teams played back in the middle of April the Warriors put 147 points on the board vs the Thunder, and now in the return matchup Ok City will out be looking to slow this game down to a crawl which Im betting results in a lower scoring game than the pundits might expect. Note: In that game where the Warriors pounded 147 points on the board the Thunder shot just over 25% from the Field and just 56% from the charity stripe. Advantage under. 

GOLDEN STATE is 24-12 UNDER  when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217 ppg going on the score board. GOLDEN STATE is 34-19 UNDER in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 222.8 ppg going on the board.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 18-9 UNDER  in road games versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season with a combined average of 216 ppg scored in those tilts.OKLAHOMA CITY is 19-9 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.2 ppg. 

These teams have gone under 10 straight times here in Oakland. 

Play UNDER

Washingtons offense remains consistent and explosive and there have been few to any regressions after big offensive outputs like the one they just had against Indiana winning a 151-141 slugfest.  The Wizards rank 1st in pace 4th in ppg offense and 29th in ppg defense,  Needless to say their style of hoops bases its successes and failures on run and gun basketball with a no prisoners attitude on display and nothing will change here tonight vs a Bucks team that can put a bucketload full of points on the board as well, via a offense that ranks 1st in ppg offense in the NBA , behind the 3rd ranked pace and 21st ranked ppg.  defense . After playing last night, the Bucks will be on tired legs, so Washington will push with extreme prejudice, which Im betting leads to an all out back and forth tilt that will see very little defense played. First team to 130 points wins.   WASHINGTON is 9-0 OVER  versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game this season with a combined average of 250.2 ppg going on the score board. Four of the L/5 meetings in this series have eclipsed this total .Over is 7-1 in Bucks last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Over is 7-0 in Wizards last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings. 

Play OVER

Atlanta ranks 9th in the league in offensive efficiency and 22nd in defensive efficiency  while the Phoenix Suns rank 7th in offensive efficiency and from a head to head stand point Im betting on that efficiency and lack of it on the Hawks part will lead us over the total in this contest.  ATLANTA is 9-1 OVER  at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 238.9 ppg scored.

PHOENIX is 8-0 OVER  versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 233.9 ppg scored. PHOENIX is 9-1 OVER versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season with a combined average 232.1 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (ATLANTA) - after a combined score of 235 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more are 84-54 OVER L/24 seasons for a 61% conversion rate. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHOENIX) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or more ) against a good shooting team (45.5-47.5%), after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 56-35 OVER L/24 seasons for a 62% conversion rate.

Play OVER

Golden State played last night against this same Pelicans side and beat them 123-108. Both sides looked motivated, but some exhaustion  issues were evident. Im betting both these sides, will once again have a hard time finding their legs here in this late season battle and the combined score will end up on the lower side of the offered total. 

Golden State has gone under in 6 of their L/8 while New Orleans has gone under in 5 of their L/6. 

GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 UNDER  in road games when playing on back-to-back days this season with a combined average of 211.4 ppg going on the board. 

GOLDEN STATE is 7-0 UNDER when playing their 2nd road game in 2 days this season with a combined average of 212 ppg going on the board. 

GOLDEN STATE is 11-1 UNDER when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days this season with a combined average of 219.1 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (GOLDEN STATE) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games are 56-29 UNDER  L/24 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. 

Orlando has gone over in 9 of their L/11 overall  and with nothing left to play for should play looser and just look to pad stats. 'Im betting on Detroit also opening up in the same fashion and for this tilt to eclipse the total. Over is 5-1 in Magic last 6 games as an underdog. Over is 21-10-1 in Pistons last 32 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

ORLANDO is 10-1 OVER when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.9 ppg scored. 

ORLANDO is 8-0 OVER  after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more this season with a combined average of 233.2 ppg scored. 

 Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Detroit.

 Play OVER 

With nothing left to play for Im betting the Rockets will run here with wreck-less abandon but the Knicks will not allow this game to be wide open and will be out to control the pace. The Knicks own both the top ppg defense and the slowest pace in the league and Im betting their will to make this a grinding affair will outwill the Rockets need to rack up stats. With that said, Im betting on a lower scoring affair that will not eclipse this total. 

NEW YORK is 9-0 UNDER L/9 in road games after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games with a  combined average of 195.5 ppg scored.NEW YORK is 9-0 UNDER  versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game this season with a combined average of 192.6 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (HOUSTON) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, a terrible team (25% or less ) playing a team with a winning record are 29-9 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Both sides can score, that is an obvious point. However, this tilt Im betting will be a hard fought physical play off affair as both sides look to send a pre play off message to each other. BROOKLYN is 16-5 UNDER L/21 in road games vs. excellent 3 point shooting teams - making  39% or more  of their attempts with a combined average of 207 ppg.  MILWAUKEE is 17-5 UNDER  in home games off a road win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 219.4 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 34-3 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

My projections estimate that this total should be closer to 212 which gives us more than a 1 possession advantage on this total to the over.

MIAMI is 10-0 OVER  as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.5 ppg scored. MIAMI is 15-5 OVER versus struggling  teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 223 ppg scored. 

Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 overall.Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 games as a favorite.Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a terrible team (7 PPG or less differential), after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games are 24-3 OVER  L/24 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

 NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - in a game involving two struggling  defensive teams (102 or more  PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 110 points or more 2 straight games 36-11 OVER L/24 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

Play OVER

Golden State is no longer a team that can just beat up on opponents   behind an explosive offense as they only rank 21st in offensive rating and as a result  their defense has had to ramp itself up as is evident in ranking 9th in defensive rating. Meanwhile, they now go against a Rockets side that rank 27th in offensive rating. I know both sides like to run at a faster pace their efficiencies and deficiencies dictate uneven proficiency from a offensive standpoint giving us value with an under wager on this offered totals number. The Rockets are 0-11 UNDER L/11 as a home dog coming off a home win with a combined average of 207.4 ppg. 

HOUSTON is 21-11 UNDER  versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 222 ppg scored. 

GOLDEN STATE is 24-13 UNDER  versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 224.3 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER

The Celtics are increasing their pace and offensive aggressiveness of late and have gone over in 3 straight games, and Im betting they will press the action again and turn this into a scoring fest.

The Spurs are 13-0-1 OVER L/14 as a dog with less than two days rest after they had fewer than 10 turnovers.

SAN ANTONIO is 27-15 OVER   in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231 ppg scored. SAN ANTONIO is 41-28 OVER (+10.2 Units) when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 227.4 ppg scored. 

BOSTON is 21-9 OVER  after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.7 ppg scored. 

Play OVER

The Pelicans have gone under in 3 straight games and have played good defence of late, and Im betting they remain on the path here tonight vs a Thunder side that is ranked 28th in ppg offence this season. Van Gundy is 22-9 UNDER in road games off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog in all games he has coached with a combined average of 192.7 ppg scored. 

The Thunder are 0-11 UNDER L/11 as a dog coming off a win in which they had more turnovers than assists with a combined average of 199.9 ppg scored. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 33-21 UNDER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.4 ppg scored.

NBA team (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off a close road loss of 3 points or less are 38-13 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

Indiana after allowing +130 points last time out in a lopsided loss will try to get back to defensive basics here this evening vs the run and gun Nets which Im betting will be deflating to this combined score to to low side of the offered totals number. Note:  Pacers Domantas Sabonis is downgraded to OUT Thursday vs Brooklyn ( Back ) and this Im betting effects positive flow for the Pacers and will directly impact offensive output, making playing a better brand of D of utmost importance. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after scoring 110 points or more are 33-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

My projections make this total closer to 217. Great value here with an over wager if generalities play out. 

The Spurs are 12-0-1 OVER L/13  as a dog with less than two days rest after they had fewer than 10 turnovers last game with the average combined score clicking in at 237 ppg. MIAMI is 11-2 OVER  in home games versus struggling  defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.5 ppg scored.

MIAMI is 15-4 OVER  in home games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting  24 or less  free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.6 ppg scored.   MIAMI is 23-9 OVER   in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 222.7 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 154-95 OVER  L/24 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play over 

Charlotte lost 114-104 to Milwaukee last night, and susceptible to being trampled on by their hosts tonight, which will have them in chase mode which bodes well in a garbage time scenario  for an over wager to cash  .  My projections estimate that the Celtics will put close to 117 points on the board with Charlotte projected to put 103 points on the scoreboard. Which gives us a full possession advantage on this total.  Over is 5-1 in Celtics last 6 games as a favorite.

CHARLOTTE is 9-0 OVER in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 239.4 ppg scored. 

Borrego is 15-2 OVER  in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games as the coach of CHARLOTTE with a combined average of 231.4 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

Orlando has gone over in 7 of their L/8 games and Im betting on a more uptempo game than the first two meetings in this series back in January. Advantage over. 

ORLANDO is 25-7 OVER  versus struggling  defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 228 ppg scored. ORLANDO is 9-1 OVER  when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231.4 ppg scored.

ORLANDO is 7-0 OVER after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more this season with a combined average of 236 ppg scored. 

 CLEVELAND is 23-12 OVER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 220 ppg scored. 

 NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (ORLANDO) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, with a losing record are 36-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. 

Play OVER

This number stood out to me from an eye test, and then my projections verified my initial observation . Value to the under.

HOUSTON is 7-0 UNDER versus struggling  defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% or better this season. 

HOUSTON is 20-10 UNDER versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 220.3 ppg scored.  

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (HOUSTON) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 225 points or more are 29-5 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MINNESOTA) - off a home win against a division rival, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 26-5 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

The Raptors may not be a championship quality team anymore but they still are well coached and have the ability to slow explosive sides the Nets down . After playing last night the Raptors are on tired legs so they wont be in any shape to run and gun here, and with the Nets off a hard fought run and gun win vs the Suns last time out, I expect they will be in a letdown situation , which will also contribute to a lower combined score than anticipated. 

TORONTO is 15-4 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211.2 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after allowing 115 points or more are 35-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

Play on the UNDER 

Boston is off a loss last time out and will have little mercy here vs the Thunder tonight. That will have the thunder operating and catchup zone all night which will help this combined score go over the total. The Celtics are 14-0-1 OVER L/15 coming off a road loss where they had at least 30% of their points on threes with a combined average of 236 ppg scored.

BOSTON is 14-4 OVER  in home games after allowing 120 points or more over the last 3 seasons. BOSTON is 13-4 OVER off a road loss this season. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after scoring 90 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games are 54-29 OVER L/5 seasons, for a 65% conversion rate. 

Play on the OVER
 

The Suns last time out, looked fatigued from the quick turnaround after playing Philadelphia, were also outr-ebounded 48-38 by the Celtics in 99-86 loss. Im betting that exhaustion will  continue permeate today and that they will be more interested in slowing this game down vs the fast paced Nets , to remain competitive which Im betting directly effects the combined score. 

Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Brooklyn.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 41-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 93-39 UNDER L/24 seasons for 71% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

Boston has gone under in 10 of their L/15 and will be primed to slow things down vs the high flying run and gun Nets here this evening in revenge mode for a 121-109 loss back in March.  This Im betting results in a lower combined score than the offered total. 

BROOKLYN is 12-2 UNDER  in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 213.2 ppg. 

BOSTON is 8-1 UNDER  revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season with a combined average of 214.5 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BROOKLYN) - after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 115-68 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BOSTON) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 65-39 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 63% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

This total is based on a projection prognosis which is based on how both teams matchup against each other . This one is simple, as my number suggests this total should be closer to 219 giving us a full possession of value. 

The Pistons are 16-0 OVER L/16  as a 8+ point dog after allowed at least 45 points in the paint and being outscored in the paint last game with a combined average of 235 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

Miami successes and failures are based on how ell they play defence. They rank 3rd in ppg allowed , and just. 26th in ppg offensive output and the 28th ranked pace. Meanwhile, San Antonio ranks 20th in ppg offence, and 12 in ppg defence behind a 15 ranked pace. With that said, the numbers suggest we will get a game that sees a combined score in the lower range of 215 number being offered. 

 .Under is 4-1 in Heat last 5 games as a road underdog.Under is 5-1 in Heat last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

MIAMI is 15-7 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 204.7 ppg scored. 

The Heat are 0-10 UNDER L/10 going under by more than 20 ppg on average  on the road coming off a win.

Under is 11-4 in Spurs last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Play UNDER

The Suns were completely asleep at the wheel in their last trip to the hardwood losing a 111-85 decision at home to the Spurs. Could they have been looking ahead to this top tier tilt? Whatever the situation was, Im expecting a rebound here, and special attention played to playing top tier defensive effort. PHOENIX is 17-3 UNDER off a double digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more. The Bucks HC Budenholzer is 111-78 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached with the combined average of 208.5 ppg scored. Its obvious both teams can light it up, but top tier D, will be on display tonight in this EAST vs WEST slugfest. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHOENIX) - after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 38-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 35-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

The Wizards are 0-12-2 UNDER L/14 at home with less than two days rest coming off a home win in which they never trailed. WASHINGTON is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots this season with a combined average of 218 ppg scored. 

WASHINGTON is 10-2 UNDER  versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-1 UNDER  in road games in non-conference games this season with a combined average of 212.1 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after 8 or more consecutive losses, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 37-11 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

These teams overall numbers might point to a lower scoring type of affair, but from a matchup perspective my projections estimate this total to be closer to 216 giving us a full possesion plus of value for an over wager. 

Bickerstaff is 12-2 OVER  in road games after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more in all games he has coached with a combined average of 219 ppg scored. 

Pistons and Cavaliers have gone over in their L/9 meetings with a combined average of  (227.8 ppg going on the board. )

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CLEVELAND) - after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher against opponent after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 114-70  OVER L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate.

Play OVER

Atlanta runs a fairly methodical offense despite of their reputation,  ranking 24th in the NBA in pace  and only rank 14th in offence. Meanwhile, Indiana loves to run and gun with wreck-less abandon, but have still seen the  Under  get notched in their  last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Which tells me they play differently against these type of teams, and or are forced into slowing down vs sides that know taking the Pacers flow away will be advantageous. Im betting this stronger than expected Hawks side will find a way to slow this game down to a pace that is manageable. This Im betting will result in a lower scoring game than the linesmakers are estimating.  INDIANA is 22-10 UNDER  in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 213.7 ppg scored.

NBAHome teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (ATLANTA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 41-14 UNDER  L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

This totals projection to the over is based on head to head matchup stats as compared to current defensive postures and the systems and form being implemented by both sides. Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 road games. Over is 6-0 in Suns last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Over is 6-1 in Suns last 7 games as a home favorite.

SAN ANTONIO is 10-1 OVER  in road games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.3 ppg going on the board.

The Suns are 11-0 OVER L/11 going over by more than 15 ppg with rest off a win in which they shot over 50% from the field with the average combined score clicking in at 242 ppg. PHOENIX is 11-3 OVER  in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - excellent offensive team (102 or more  PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 or more  PPG) after 42+ games, after 2 straight losses by 6 points or less are 32-10 OVER L/24 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

When these teams played back on March 4th they combined to put 223 points on the board in a Bucks 112 -111 win vs the Grizzlies. My projections in rematch estimate a combined score that is in the 233 range which gives us a more than 1 possession advantage. After playing last night the Grizzlies will not have the legs to run with the explosive Bucks, so instead I look for a concerted effort in transition that will slow this game down enough for a more muted score than many might expect. 

It must be noted that the Bucks rank 7th in defensive rating and the Grizzlies 8th.: Defensive Rating (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA); for players and teams it is points allowed per 100 possessions)

Under is 19-7 in Grizzlies last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 9-4 in Grizzlies last 13 games as an underdog.Under is 19-7 in Grizzlies last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 9-4 in Grizzlies last 13 games as an underdog.

MEMPHIS is 9-1 UNDER  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season with a combined average fo 217 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 8-1 UNDER  versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots this season with a combined average of 209.1 ppg going on the board. MEMPHIS is 23-11 UNDER  when the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.4 ppg scored in those 34 tilts. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 46-13 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 215 points or more are 60-21 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

These two teams according to my projections will take part in a fairly physical affair that will see the combined score stay under this total. 

Golden State ranks 9th in defensive efficiency in the NBA while Boston is 10th in ppg allowed and 21st in pace. 

GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 UNDER  when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days this season with a combined average of 216.1 ppg going on the board. 

GOLDEN STATE is 21-9 UNDER as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.7 ppg scored.

GOLDEN STATE is 20-10 UNDER  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season. GOLDEN STATE is 21-11 UNDER  versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season. Under is 10-1 in Warriors last 11 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Under is 12-4 in Warriors last 16 road games.

Warriors: 0-10 UNDER L/10 vs the Celtics .

Celtics: 1-8 UNDER at home in 1/1 rest. 

NBA  Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 33-16 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER

My projections estimate that the Grizzlies will score at least 115 +points here tonight while the Bulls will put up 109+ points , which gives us a full possession value on this total to the over. 

MEMPHIS is 24-6 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 236.8 ppg scored.

CHICAGO is 25-6 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 237.7 ppg scored. 

MEMPHIS is 11-2 OVER in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 230.6 ppg scored.MEMPHIS is 11-1 OVER  in road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season with a combined average of 237.6 ppg scored.The Grizzlies are 11-0 OVER  L/11 eclipsing the number by more than 16+ ppg off a game as a dog in which they had at least 30% of their points on three-pointers.Jenkins is 17-4 OVER  in road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games as the coach of MEMPHIS with a combined average of 235.6 ppg scored.

Play OVER

Oklahoma State has averaged less than 100 points per game in their L/6 overall, and Im betting their offensive conversion rate will continue vs the Warriors tonight in a game I have pegged to stay on the low side of the number, based on the Thunders horrendous 43% FG conversion rate in their L/5 tilts. Five of the L/6 meetings in this series have remained on the low side of the total. 

GOLDEN STATE is 9-0 UNDER  after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season with a combined average of 210.4 ppg scored.

The Warriors are 0-12 UNDER L/12  on the road after Stephen Curry had the highest plus/minus on the team last game going under by more than 16.5 ppg.

Play UNDER

My own projections estimate a total that should be closer to 218. Thus giving us value with an under wager. We have a full possession plus to work with this spot play. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 20-8 UNDER in road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. OKLAHOMA CITY is 32-20 UNDER (+10.0 Units) when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons.

NBA team (UTAH) - a very good team (+7 PPG or more differential) against a struggling team ( 7 PPG or less differential), after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games are 26-6 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (UTAH) - a very good team (+7  or more PPG diff.) against a struggling  team (- 7 or less  PPG diff.) after 42 or more games, after a combined score of 205 points or more are 23-4 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The Clippers rank 28th in pace in the NBA and own the 6th best ppg defense and 2nd ranked defensive rating and have allowed an average of 107 ppg on the road. Im betting the Clippers do what they do best and control the pace of this tilt and defensively own a side that is going to be in a regression mode tonight after taking part in a 132-125 uptempo affair last time out.  This Im betting directly effects the the total combined score to the under here.   INDIANA is 18-4 UNDER  after scoring 130 points or more  with an average of 201.4 ppg scored.

 LA CLIPPERS are 18-8 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score of 218.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (LA CLIPPERS) - good 3PT shooting team ( 36.5% or more ) against an average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, hot shooting team - 2 straight games making  50% or better  of their shots are 28-4 UNDER L/28 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (LA CLIPPERS) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after allowing 115 points or more are 32-6 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (INDIANA) - in non-conference games, off a road win are 43-12 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The Jazz average just under 120 ppg at home this season, and against a lower tier defensive side like the Wizards Im betting on them putting 5 to 10 more points on that average tonight, while the Wizards Im betting will be good for 110+ points in a chasing environment. When these teams played back on March 18th the Wizards  took a 131-122 affair, and more fireworks should be considered highly likely again in the rematch as Utah will have little empathy in melt up type of revenge match.WASHINGTON is 15-3 OVER  as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 247.3 ppg scored.WASHINGTON is 8-0 OVER versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game this season with a combined average of 250.7 ppg going on the board.WASHINGTON is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 258.3 ppg scored.

NBA team (UTAH) - after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 42-15 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The Spurs D has been trashed on a very consistent basis of late, allowing 134, 132, 134, 139, 125, 121 points in a 10 game span, and against this kind of opponent my estimates project Dallas to score in excess of 115+ points while the Spurs project to score 109+ points. Note: DALLAS is 20-4 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 238 ppg going on the board. 

 The Spurs are 11-0-1 OVER L/12  as a dog with less than two days rest after they had fewer than 10 turnovers last game with a combined average of 237.1 ppg scored. 

Popovich is 34-16 OVER in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 as the coach of SAN ANTONIO with a combined average of 231.1 ppg going on the board . 

Play OVER

Afternoon basketball can start a little slower then night time hoops, and today Im betting on an affair that is grinding in nature and that combines to stay under the offered totals number. 

Denver runs the 29th ranked pace in the NBA along with the 9th best ppg defence. Meanwhile, Boston ranks 21st in pace in own the 10th best ppg defence. 

Under is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 7-1 in Celtics last 8 overall.

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Play UNDER

Charlotte plays a style conducive to slowing  down teams like Atlanta. This Im betting will see this afternoon tilt garner  alot less scoring than some may be  anticipated. 

CHARLOTTE is 20-9 UNDER   in home games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (ATLANTA) - tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 75-39 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

 Play UNDER

Oklahoma City's D, has been shredded on a consistent basis of late, allowing an average of 129.4 ppg in their L/5 trips to the hardwood. With that said, Im expecting this trend to continue which projects into what Im betting will be a combined score that eclipses this offered totals number. 

Over is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Over is 10-2 in Thunder last 12 games as a home underdog.Over is 5-1 in Thunder last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 10-2 in Thunder last 12 home games. Over is 26-10-1 in 76ers last 37 games playing on 0 days rest.

 NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 33-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

Play OVER

Denver owns the 9th ranked ppg D in the NBA behind the 29th ranked pace, while, San Antonio ranks 15th in pce in 22nd in offense  ppg. Considering both sides condensed exhausting schedule, and their other pertinent  numbers we have a projected  tilt that very much looks like a combined score that fails to eclipse this number is a likely scenario. 

Malone is 10-1 UNDER in home games versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12  or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of DENVER with a combined average of 198.6 ppg. 

SAN ANTONIO is 10-1 UNDER revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 214.6 ppg going on the board.

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 30-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 34-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

The Phoenix suns played and emotional game that ended in a OT win vs Utah last night, and now on tired legs and in an emotional letdown state are susceptible to a very slow start and a down offensive performance against a defense that has alot of stopping power as is evident by ranking 6th in ppg allowed behind the 27th ranked pace. Advantage under. 

PHOENIX is 18-8 UNDER  in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons.

Utah enters this game off an exhausting game last night vs the Suns, losing in OT. Now in an emotional letdown spot I expect the Jazz to not be as aggressive offensive  as usual which Im betting results in a game that goes under the set total.  NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PORTLAND) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 26-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (UTAH) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are they 31-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

This is the Bucks 5th straight road game and now on tired legs I expect a slower pace from them here and a more defensive minded stance, as they allowed 128 points last time out in a back and forth 129-128 win. Note: MILWAUKEE is 20-9 UNDER  after allowing 120 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219. 8 ppg scored. 

The Warriors are 0-10-2 UNDER off a road loss in which Stephen Curry had a positive plus/minus. 

GOLDEN STATE is 14-4 UNDER versus below average foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game this season with a combined average of 219.8 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 23-10 UNDER versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season with a combined average of 222 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205 points or more are 34-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NB ARoad teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after scoring 110 points or more are 29-5 UNDER L/24 seasons  for a 85% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

Over is 5-1-1 in Grizzlies last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record and tonight Im betting they push the red hot Heat into a faster paced more offensive game then they would like to partake in. Over is 5-1 in Heat last 6 games as a home favorite.

MIAMI is 8-0 OVER  in home games versus struggling  defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 238.4 ppg scored.

MIAMI is 13-3 OVER  in home games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.2 ppg. 

MEMPHIS is 9-1 OVER in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229 ppg scored.

MEMPHIS is 11-2 OVER  in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 233 ppg scored.

Only one of Grizzlies last 10 games have seen less than 216 combined points scored.

Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Miami.

Play OVER

The Sixers ranks 7th in ppg allowed while the Celtics rank 10th behind the 21st ranked pace. Both sides are considered eastern conference contenders and rivals and tonight Im betting on a physical affair, as both jockey for play off seeding possibilities and domination from a head to head standpoint.

Boston has gone under in 5 straight. Philadelphia have stayed under in 8 of their L/11 overall. 

BOSTON is 30-11 UNDER L/41 after a huge blowout win by 30 or more with the average combined score of 193 ppg scored. (Beat Charlotte 116-86 last time out) Regression is expected. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BOSTON) - revenging a loss vs opponent, off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 51-17 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

Play on the UNDER

The Suns, who will visit the Houston Rockets on Monday, closed Sunday ranked seventh in offensive rating (115.3) and tonight Im betting on more offensive explosiveness, that will result in a wide open affair that eclipses this number. 

The Rockets are 21-0-1 OVER  with no rest after a loss in which they led after the third quarter which was the case last time out. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 61-25 OVER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

The Atlanta Hawks return home and are now on tired legs after  their season-long eight-game road trip and now this  Sunday play to host the Golden State Warriors.Both sides are banged up as the condensed schedule takes its toll on teams. If Warriors Seth curry plays he will be less than 100% with a sore tailbone as will Atlantas Trae Young who has knee issues. With that said, Im betting on a muted type tilt that will be slower than might be expected, which will translate into a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers  estimates. The last time these teams played the Hawks pounded the Warriors by a DD deficit and now I expect the Warriors to be more vigilant defensively.Note: Kerr is 35-18 UNDER  in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent as the coach of GOLDEN STATE with a combined average of 216.5 ppg scored.GOLDEN STATE is 34-21 UNDER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons. GOLDEN STATE is 18-9 UNDER  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season with a combined average of 222.9 ppg scored. 

The Warriors are 0-10 UNDER L/10 after they had at least 5 turnovers more than their season-to-date average last game with a combined average of 211 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off a road blowout win by 20 points or more are 47-17 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

The Lakers modus operandi has been a top tier brand of  defense , as is evident by ranking 2nd in the league in ppg allowed, behind what is now a short handed offense that ranks 22nd in ppg scored this season. The Lakers have gone under in 9 of their L/10 games. Competing here against the explosive Clippers Im betting will see the Lakers be even more attentive in transition which will dictate a slower pace (ranked 15th in the league) than is usually the case and this this will translate into a combined score that does not eclipse this offered number. 

LA LAKERS are 16-2 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 210.7 ppg. LA LAKERS are 20-4 UNDER  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season for a combined average of 211.4 ppg scored. LA LAKERS are 16-3 UNDER   versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 215 ppg. LA LAKERS are 23-8 UNDER  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season with a combined average of 215.1 ppg scored. LA LAKERS are 10-2 UNDER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season with a combined average of 212.7 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA CLIPPERS) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 92-38 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Cleveland has been held under 100 points in each of its past four games, but all the more need to open up, which will effect their defensive numbers. Miami popped 116 points on the board last time out, and are more than capable of putting points on the board here. 

MIAMI is 9-0 OVER as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of  232.2 ppg. 

MIAMI is 15-4 OVER  in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 226 ppg going on the board. MIAMI is 11-1 OVER in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 232.7 ppg. 

CLEVELAND is 13-4 OVER  in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 225.4 ppg were scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CLEVELAND) - in a game involving two horrible defensive teams (102 or more PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 110 points or more 2 straight games are 25-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CLEVELAND) - in a game involving two horrible defensive teams (102 or more  PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 110 points or more 2 straight games are 35-11 OVER L/24 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the OVER

These teams have plenty of offensive  fire power, but they both still possess some physical defensive attributes, and Im betting those stopping  qualities  will shine in this tilt between top tier sides. I expect both teams to pay special attention to defense especially in transition. Bucks HC Budenholzer is 83-56 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) in all games he has coached with the average combined score ringing in at 209.9 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE/ PORTLAND) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 29-4 UNDER L/24 seasons for a  88% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205 points or more are 33-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PORTLAND) - after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 35-8 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PORTLAND) - after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 34-8 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Houston ranks 25th in ppg offence , while Boston ranks 16th in offensive ppg output. both have proven themselves highly inconsistent offensively and Im betting on more of the same muted action when they meet this Friday night. 

Under is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 games as a favorite.

Under is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 games as a road underdog.

HOUSTON is 18-4 UNDER  versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average score of 216.6 ppg. HOUSTON is 25-9 UNDER  versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game this season for a combined average of 217.9 ppg. HOUSTON is 14-2 UNDER after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games this season with a combined average of 213.4 ppg scored. 

Under is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings in Boston.

Play UNDER