Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-04-16 | Central Michigan v. Miami (OH) OVER 46.5 | Top | 17-37 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Earliest Cash TOP PLAY - Rickenbach CFB Game #317/318 Friday - 10* Top Play OVER in Miami (OH) Redhawks vs Central Michigan Chippewas @ 6 ET - This total has dropped from a 48 to a 46.5 as of gameday morning. This is offering up nice line value on the over here because, even though the Redhawks have gone 7-2 to the under this season, their 'style' has changed in recent weeks thanks to QB Gus Ragland who has completed 47 of 79 for 571 passing yards with 8 TDs and 0 interceptions. He has replaced the injured Billy Bahl and Miami has won three straight games. They now face a fired up Central Michigan team that has lost back to back games. The Chippewas came out flat after their loss to Toledo the prior week and they ended up losing a tight one at home against Kent State. The Chips have a senior QB in Cooper Rush who can throw all over a Miami defense that has allowed 717 passing yards the past two games! The Chippewas have averaged 282.7 passing yards per game this season and Rush already has 21 passing TD's on the year. The problem for the Chips is their run defense has been gashed for 184.6 rushing yards per game their past 7 games. The Redhawks come into this game having run for 222 yards per game the past two weeks as Ragland's success in the passing game is keeping defenses honest and opening up plenty of opportunities for the ground game. As you can see from the above, both of these teams should enjoy plenty of success moving the ball in this one and the weather conditions - light winds and clear skies - are perfect for an over tonight. Look for the over to improve to 3-1 the L4 in Redhawks games where they are a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. The over is also a perfect 3-0 this season in Central Michigan games against teams with a losing record. 10* Top Play OVER in Miami (OH) Friday |
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11-03-16 | Falcons -3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 43-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
RARE Thursday TOP - Rickenbach NFL Game #307 Thursday - 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (-) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:25 ET - The Falcons have big time revenge on their minds here. Not only did they lose their season opener at home against the Buccaneers this season, Atlanta also lost both match-ups with the Bucs last season. The fact is we are getting line value here because this game is being played at Tampa Bay. That is helping to keep the chalk here much smaller than it would be if this game was being played in Atlanta. How much will home field help the Buccaneers here? Well, they allowed 626 yards to the Raiders here last week and they are on a 7-22 ATS skid as home dogs so I would say home field is unlikely to be a deciding factor in this one! Truly the Bucs defense has been shredded for much of this season because the only games where TB thrived on defense was when they faced some of the most anemic offenses in the league (SF, LA, and Denver yards per game very unimpressive). In Tampa's other 4 games they've allowed an average of 353 passing yards per game! Atlanta, #1 offense in the league, is going to shred the Bucs defense Thursday. The Falcons are averaging 33 points per game this season and the Buccaneers have been held to 24 points or less in 4 of their last 6 games. The Falcons are on a 9-2 ATS run on Thursdays while the Bucs are 1-5 ATS in Thursday games. Atlanta is 4-0 ATS on the road this season and Tampa Bay is 0-3 ATS at home this season. The Buccaneers are 1-6 ATS as divisional dogs when facing an opponent who is seeking revenge. I fully expect Atlanta to get their revenge in a big way tonight and the systems above add to up a combined 27-4 (87%) ATS mark in favor of the Falcons. 10* ATLANTA FALCONS Thursday |
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11-03-16 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State OVER 71.5 | 34-24 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #313/314 Thursday - 8* OVER the total in Iowa State Cyclones vs Oklahoma Sooners @ 7:30 ET - Big total here but it's absolutely justified. If you're concerned about Sooner RB Joe Mixon being suspended for this game, keep in mind that actually could help the over here because it means QB Baker Mayfield (#1 QB rating in the nation) will be throwing the ball even more than usual. Yes, Oklahoma has solid back-up running back options but if the #1 guy is out, all you do is throw the ball more. This is especially true against an Iowa State defense that has been scorched for an average of 323.5 passing yards per game in their last two games against quality offenses (Texas and Oklahoma State). Now the Cyclones D will try to slow down an Oklahoma offensive unit that is one of the top producing teams in the nation. The Sooners have averaged 51.4 points per game during their current 5-game winning streak. The only hope for Iowa State to hang around in this one is to put up some big points in this game and don't be surprised if they do just that. The OU defense has allowed 314.9 passing yards per game this season. Also, prior to holding the anemic offense of Kansas to just 3 points last week, the Sooners allowed an average of 41.4 points per game in their 5 prior games. The Cyclones put up an average of 43 points per game in their two home games prior to scoring just 26 at home against Kansas State last week. The impressive thing about Iowa State's offense is that they've totaled at least 448 yards in 4 of their last 5 games. Look for both teams to pile up points in this one. The over is 5-1 in the Cyclones last 6 games and 5-2 in the Sooners last 7 games. Also, Oklahoma is on an 11-1 run to the over in road games and a 17-6 run to the over in conference games. The over is a perfect 3-0 this season in the Cyclones games in conference action. I expect another one here. 8* OVER in Iowa State Thursday |
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11-03-16 | Buffalo +20 v. Ohio | 10-34 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #309 Thursday - 8* Buffalo Bulls (+) @ Ohio University Bobcats @ 6 ET - The Bobcats are playing with revenge here as they lost at Buffalo by 24 points last season even though they were a 3-point favorite. However, simply put, this line is over-inflated for this early evening Thursday match-up. From a situational perspective it is not a great spot for Ohio as they are off of a huge win last Thursday at Toledo. They won by 5 as a 15 point dog and that was the Bobcats first win at The Glass Bowl in 50 years! Needless to say that could leave the Bobcats a little flat early in this game. Also, Ohio U. continues to have big issues at the QB position and that means they have to rely heavily on their ground game in this one and just allow their young QB to try and be a game manager and not make mistakes. That said, this is not the type of game where the Bobcats are likely to be able to run up the score. Also, the Bulls are only 2-6 on the season but both wins came as double digit dogs. Buffalo has some extra confidence after last week's win at Akron as a 19.5 point dog. The Bulls got their ground game going again as they rushed for 378 yards. Look for a steady dose of running from both teams in this one and the result should be a much closer game than many are expecting. Keep in mind, the Bobcats have not won a game by more than 16 points all season and, in MAC games, their biggest win was 10 points and their average margin of victory has been 6.3 points. Ohio U is likely to get the win here but not the cover. The Bulls are a young team and also now in their 2nd year of new systems under their coach. Last week's win over the Zips was a sign that this team is starting to put it together and, keep in mind, their ugly loss at Northern Illinois was fueled by turnovers. In their five prior games, the Bulls turned the ball over a TOTAL of just 3 times. 8* BUFFALO BULLS Thursday |
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11-02-16 | Toledo -10 v. Akron | 48-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
ESPN2 Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #305 Wednesday - 8* Toledo Rockets (-) @ Akron Zips @ 7:30 ET - The Rockets are off of a rare loss and will respond huge Wednesday night. The Zips are off of a loss as well and also are excited about this home game opportunity on ESPN2. However, Akron is simply a mess right now. They've lost 2 of their last 3 games and have allowed an average of 330 rushing yards per game in those contests! That means Toledo should be able to run the ball at will in tonight's game and, of course, establishing the run allows a team to then have infinite possibilities to open up the playbook and attack through the air. The Rockets are averaging 347 passing yards per game this season so Akron's defense is in real trouble here. Toledo also is well known as road warriors. In games away from the Glass Bowl, the Rockets have gone 11-1 ATS their last 12! Toledo has straight up wins in 10 of their last 11 away from home! While the spread may seem sizable here, the Zips have been getting dominated statistically of late while the Rockets have been on the right end of the domination for much of this season. Also, Toledo is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 weekday road games and 6-1 ATS when playing with revenge against a sub-.600 opponent. The Rockets last played the Zips in their season finale of 2013 and that game was at Akron. Toledo lost the game by 2 points and that remains the only year out of the past 6 seasons that the Rockets have not made a bowl game. Trust me, they have not forgotten. It is time for payback Wednesday night and Akron is on a 2-8 ATS run when they are off of a straight-up loss as a favorite. They were a big road fave at Buffalo last week and yet lost the game by 3 TD's. That is a sign of things to come in this one as another blowout looms. The combined ATS mark of those 3 streaks noted above is 20-3 ATS in favor of the road team in this one. I'll take it! 8* TOLEDO ROCKETS Wednesday |
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11-01-16 | Bowling Green +17 v. Northern Illinois | 20-45 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show | |
Tuesday Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #301 Tuesday - 8* Bowling Green Falcons (+) @ Northern Illinois @ 8 ET - This line moved up from 15.5 to 17 and I completely understand the move as the Huskies are seeking revenge for December's loss to the Falcons. However, just because I understand the move doesn't mean I agree with it. Simply put, the points are too big here. Both teams are having tough seasons but the Falcons numbers really got skewed by horrible losses at Ohio State and Memphis. Bowling Green did get blown out in both of those games. However, in their other 6 games the Falcons allowed an average of 34.5 points per game while scoring an average of 26.3 points per game. They're facing a Northern Illinois team that is off of a blowout win over Buffalo. That 44-7 win over the Bulls is helping to give us an inflated line here. Prior to that game, the Huskies had allowed an average of 37.3 points per game and went 1-6 in those 7 games. You can see that Northern Illinois is truly nothing special this season and their defense has been just as bad as the Falcons defense. I don't see the Huskies as being able to create much of a margin in this game. These teams are very nearly equal and home field edge plus the revenge angle aren't enough of a factor to justify this huge line. Also, Bowling Green has a long-term mark of 19-9 ATS as an underdog in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. Northern Illinois is on a 5-9 ATS run in home games the past three seasons combined. The Huskies have failed to cover 3 of their last 4 home meetings with the Falcons. 8* BOWLING GREEN Tuesday |
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10-31-16 | Vikings v. Bears +5 | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
21-0, 100% System Rout - Rickenbach NFL Game #274 Monday - 8* Chicago Bears (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 8:30 ET - The Vikings will be looking to respond off of a loss but, for the Bears, this is basically their "Super Bowl" for the season. It is their final appearance on Monday Night Football for the season and they are at home and they are hosting a division rival. Considering Chicago is off to a 1-6 start this season, this is one of the few opportunities they will have to "make some noise" the rest of the year. Look for the Bears to make the most of this opportunity and many will be surprised to hear this but, despite averaging less points than the Vikings, the Chicago offense is averaging 50 yards more per game than the Minnesota offense so far this season. Also, the Bears defense has not been as bad as the points per game would lead you to believe. Chicago is allowing only 350 yards per game. By comparison, the Vikings defense (arguably the best in the league) is allowing 280 yards per game. The point is that, from a statistical standpoint these teams are not as far apart as you may think at first glance. The Bears also have the home field edge here and I expect QB Jay Cutler to make the most of this second opportunity after Chicago QB Brian Hoyer suffered a broken arm. The Bears have won 8 of their last 10 meetings with Minnesota in Chicago and the two losses came by just 3 points apiece. Simply put, the Vikings have not enjoyed recent trips to Chicago and I don't expect that to change Monday night either. Chicago is 12-0 ATS as a home dog of 4 or more points when they are off of consecutive straight-up losses. The Bears also have the scheduling edge here as they are off of a Thursday night game so they have extra rest coming into this one and they also have a bye week on deck. The Vikings are 0-9 ATS as a road favorite when they are off of a straight-up loss as a favorite! The Vikes did cover in a big win over the Giants in MNF earlier this month but they are still on just a 1-7 ATS run in Monday Night football match-ups as they previously had failed to cover in 7 straight MNF games. Look for another Monday Night ATS loss here for Minny as we test the combined 21-0 ATS runs that are in play for this one (12-0 for the Bears and 9-0 against Minnesota). 8* CHICAGO |
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10-30-16 | Eagles +5 v. Cowboys | Top | 23-29 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Primetime Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #271 Sunday - 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:30 ET - Anything that changes a team momentum is a problem when that momentum was positive. Earlier this season we saw the Eagles start the year 3-0 and the electric start was culminated with a dominating win over the Steelers and that was when Ben Roethlisberger was healthy. After that game, the Eagles then lost a heartbreaker late at Detroit. That seemed to change their momentum as the very next week they were "flat" for their game against a division rival - the Redskins - and, of course, that is completely inexcusable. The Eagles responded the next week with another dominating effort (21-10 over Minnesota) and needless to say, Philly learned their lesson. That said, there is no way they're going to come out flat again versus a divisional foe. This is a key primetime match-up that brings out the best in teams and Philadelphia knows they can ill afford dropping into a 0-2 hole in divisional games. The Cowboys have now rattled off 5 straight wins (and 5 straight covers) so what possibly could be the problem? Besides the fact that the Eagles (when motivated) have won 4 games all by double digits and by an average margin of 19 points, the Cowboys had a momentum-killing bye week. When a team is struggling they relish a bye week to get back on track but truly the bye week at this time was the last thing Dallas needed. The Cowboys also have gone from being a 4 point fave here to as high as a 5.5 as of mid-morning on gameday. This is a Dallas team that on a 7-19 ATS run as a divisional home favorite while the Eagles are on a 15-3 ATS run as a divisional road dog! The visitor has won each of the last 6 meetings between these teams so home field has not meant much at all in recent meetings between these teams and yet Dallas is attracting a lot of attention in this match-up. The Eagles have not turned the ball over in 4 of their 6 games this season and their defense has been one of the best in the league with only 307 yards allowed per game. Only once did Philly allow more than 222 yards passing in a game. Dallas has allowed 294 yards or more through the air in 3 of their last 5 games. The Cowboys are on a 0-9-1 ATS run when they are favored against an NFC team that has a winning percentage of .666 or better. Head coach Jason Garrett has a 2-11 ATS mark as a home favorite when facing an opponent off of a SU win. Garrett also is 1-7 ATS as a fave of 3 or more points against a team with a winning record. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-30-16 | Packers v. Falcons -3 | 32-33 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
NFL Value Special - Rickenbach NFL Game #254 Sunday - 8* Atlanta Falcons (-) vs Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - The Falcons are off of a tough home loss (in OT!) as they allowed the Chargers to battle back from a 17 point deficit. Prior to this loss, the Falcons also suffered a tough 2 point loss at Seattle. Needless to say, the Falcons are now feeling their backs are against the wall and this is an Atlanta team that that has the top offense in the league as QB Matt Ryan continues to dominate. The Packers and QB Aaron Rodgers just haven't been the same on offense this season. Though they did put up big numbers last week that was against the Bears (Chicago is now 1-6 on the season) and I don't see Green Bay as being able to keep up with a fired up Atlanta team here that has the most explosive offense in the league. The Falcons, even after last week's defeat, are on a 7-3 ATS run. The Packers, on the road for the first time in six weeks, have only covered once the last 9 times they have been a road dog. Green Bay has also suffered a straight-up loss in 5 of their last 6 games played in a dome and with how low the money line is here, taking the Falcons just to win this game is an option. 8* ATLANTA |
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10-30-16 | Chargers v. Broncos -3.5 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
AFC West Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #268 Sunday - 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (-) vs San Diego Chargers @ 4:05 ET - This line has dropped from a -6.5 to a -3.5 as of early Sunday morning and it is now "go time" with Denver in this one. The Broncos have one of the top defenses in the league. They also are #1 in the league for sack percentage at 10.7% and the Chargers do struggle to protect QB Philip Rivers. I have all the respect in the world for Rivers but he's in for a tough outing. We all say what happened Monday night when Denver "wanted it" against Houston and now we're going to see what happens when the Broncos "want it" against the Chargers. This is a revenge game for Denver and they outgained the Bolts by 40 yards in San Diego but managed to lose the game by 8 points. It's time for a little payback and, with the ground game going again (190 rushing yards versus Houston in MNF) and with the defense having held Rivers and Co to just 166 passing yards in the first match-up, there is no reason in the world this line should have dropped as much as it did. Time to step in and take advantage. The Chargers are off of their huge come-from-behind win at Atlanta last week (trailed Falcons by 17 in 2nd quarter) and won't have enough left in the tank to take down the Broncos a 2nd time in 18 days. Denver is on a 20-9 ATS run in AFC West games. The Broncos entered this season 7-0 ATS when they are off of a non-divisional game and facing a team off of an upset win as an underdog. The Chargers are 0-5 ATS as divisional dogs when they are off of a SU win as a dog. The Broncos defense has not allowed more than 23 points all season long. The Chargers defense has allowed 30 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. Denver 30, San Diego 23 gets us the cash here but I expect an even much bigger margin of victory here and that's why this is a Top Play for me. With the line move, the better defense, and a resurgent ground game there is huge value with the Broncos here. 10* DENVER |
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10-30-16 | Patriots v. Bills +6.5 | 41-25 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
1 of 3 on Early NFL 3-pack - Rickenbach NFL Game #260 Sunday - 8* Buffalo Bills (+) vs New England Patriots @ 1 ET - I am completely aware of the revenge aspect here for the Patriots as their only loss this season came versus the Bills in a 16-0 shutout at Foxboro the week before Brady came back. However, this line is simply inflated given the way the Bills have been playing. Buffalo had won four straight games before losing at Miami last week where they fell short by a field goal. The Bills are facing a Patriots team that has won 3 straight games since Brady is back under center. However, Buffalo is a surprising 5-0 ATS when they are facing an opponent who is seeking revenge and is off back to back wins. The Patriots are 2-7 ATS when favored by more than 4 points on the road and facing an AFC opponent. Both of those ATS wins actually came during the Pats 3-game winning streak since the loss to the Bills. However, it is certainly noteworthy that they came against a Browns team that is now 0-7 on the season and a Steelers team that was without Roethlisberger. Even without Big Ben, Pittsburgh did outgain the Patriots last week so the 27-16 win for New England certainly was a fortunate cover for New England. Bills head coach Rex Ryan has the quite the rivalry with Pats head coach Bill Belichick and 5 of the last 6 meetings when Ryan was with the Jets were decided by 3 points or less. The two last year, Ryan with Bills, both were decided by 8 points or less. Look for another tight battle and the points here, if even needed, will be enough for the cover. 8* BUFFALO Sunday |
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10-30-16 | Seahawks v. Saints +2.5 | 20-25 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
1 of 3 on Early NFL 3-pack - Rickenbach NFL Game #258 Sunday - 8* New Orleans Saints (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 1 ET - Seattle is off of their miracle tie at Arizona last week as the Cardinals outgained the Seahawks by nearly 200 yards and had every opportunity to win that game. Now Seattle heads further south and east to take on a New Orleans team that was the opposite of the lucky Seahawks last week. The Saints got burned by a tight loss at Kansas City as they outgained the Chiefs by nearly 150 yards but came up just short on the scoreboard. These results are helping to offer some line value this week as the scoreboard was not indicative of how the games really played out for these teams last week. Of course the Seahawks have the superior defense in this match-up but how much will they have left in the tank after batting for FIVE full quarters in last week's tie? As for the Saints, they definitely have the superior offense and New Orleans has been especially strong at home where they've averaged 36 points and 501 yards per game this season. The Saints are on an 11-3 ATS run as a dog. The Seahawks are on a 1-4 ATS run against NFC South foes. New Orleans is on a 7-0 ATS run against teams with a winning percentage of .666 or greater. Look for the Saints to get the upset here but grab the points. 8* NEW ORLEANS |
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10-30-16 | Chiefs v. Colts +3 | 30-14 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
1 of 3 on Early NFL 3-pack - Rickenbach NFL Game #266 Sunday - 8* Indianapolis Colts (+) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 1 ET - Indianapolis is on an incredible 10-0 ATS run as a home dog and 9 of those 10 wins were outright upsets. The Colts should be in line for another one here as they take on a Chiefs team that was fortunate to get past the Saints last week and that game was at Arrowhead Stadium. KC was outgained by a 463 to 326 margin and first downs were 27 to 20 in favor of New Orleans. The Chiefs struggling offense is unlikely to keep up with the Colts dynamic offense in this one. Andrew Luck threw for 3 TDs last week and 353 yards against a Titans team that is actually a solid defensive club. One of the weaknesses for Indianapolis this season is pass protection but the Chiefs defense ranks near the bottom of the league in terms of percentage of sacks (3.6%) on pass plays. Indy is 10-3 SU and ATS when off of a divisional game. Also, the Colts are on a 4-1 ATS run against AFC West opponents. Kansas City is 2-4 SU and ATS in their last 6 games on turf and simply won't be able to keep up with the speedy Colts offense here. Indy is an amazing 9-0 ATS when they are at home off of a divisional game and facing an opponent who has a winning percentage of .600 or better on the season. Look for the Colts to make it 10 in a row early Sunday. 8* INDIANAPOLIS |
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10-29-16 | Clemson -4 v. Florida State | 37-34 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Game #149 Saturday - 8* Clemson Tigers (-) @ Florida State Seminoles @ 8 ET - Though some of the "luster" has been taken off of this match-up because of the Seminoles having two losses on the season, it is still a big game. Certainly it is an important game to QB Deshaun Watson and the Tigers. Watson remembers his first game here (a loss in OT two years ago) and is seeking payback. Losses have been few and far between for Watson as the starting QB at Clemson and last year's home win over the Noles certainly was satisfying but a win at Tallahassee to make up for the last trip here is still a key goal for Watson and Company. The bye week helped them to get healthy too. Even though Florida State is also off of a bye week, the Noles are on an 0-4 ATS run when off of a bye week. Conversely, the Tigers are on a 3-1 ATS run when playing with two or more weeks of rest between games. Clemson is also 16-2 SU (and 12-6 ATS) in their last 18 games against teams with a winning record. The Noles are a subpar 7-10 ATS in games against teams with a winning record. The Tigers hold an 8-3 ATS mark in the last 11 games against FSU and home field hasn't been an advantage at the betting window. In fact, the road team has gotten the cash in 4 straight meetings between these teams. The Noles pass defense has been a surprising weakness for Florida State this season and Watson will take advantage. The Tigers have averaged 300 passing yards per game in the last two meetings with the Seminoles and they also ran for over 200 yards in last year's game. Having RB Wayne Gallman back healthy (thanks to the bye week) is a big plus for Clemson this week. Look for the Tigers to roll on the road as Clemson is battle-tested and has proven they can come up big at crunch time. The same can truly not be said for FSU who got blasted at Louisville, had to have a huge rally to beat Ole Miss, and lost at home to UNC. 8* CLEMSON TIGERS Saturday |
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10-29-16 | Auburn v. Ole Miss +5 | Top | 40-29 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Contrarian Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #180 Saturday - 10* Top Play Ole Miss Rebels (+) vs Auburn Tigers @ 7:15 ET - As long-time followers know, I like to be a contrarian. The very first numbers that popped up on this game when the lines came out mid-day Sunday showed Ole Miss as a -1.5 favorite! Now, as of early Saturday morning, the line is all the way up to -5 on Auburn. That is a swing of nearly a full TD on this line. Of course I completely understand the move. The Tigers have been moving the ball extremely well on the ground and the Rebels have been struggling to stop the run. Also, Ole Miss has been known for 2nd half struggles so far this season while Auburn has been dominating teams of late. With all that said, every week is a new week and Ole Miss is now at home, in a must win spot, and they are catching Auburn off of an easy win that will have them overconfident. I would not be surprised to see the Rebels get the upset in Oxford Saturday evening but certainly am grabbing the generous points being offered. Ole Miss, before last week's poor effort on the road, had been 6-0 ATS when they were an underdog off of a SU loss. Though that streak suffered a loss last week, look for the Rebels to bounce back big at home. The defense of Mississippi is tired of hearing all about their shortcomings and not being able to stop the run. When you are at home, off of back to back road losses, and constantly being told about an inability to do something, you often will step up the very next change you get. Make no mistake about it, the Rebels at home are fired up for this game and the defense is going to be flying all over the field. I know Auburn has looked great of late. I won't deny that. However, the Tigers beat LSU before they fired Les Miles. They were struggling under Miles. Then, Auburn's other wins during this streak included beating a Sun Belt team (UL Monroe) and a Mississippi State team that is now 2-5 on the season. Yes, the Tigers flattened Arkansas last week but that is one game. The point is that Auburn's 4-game winning streak is impressive but has a couple of asterisks on it and I can guarantee you that Ole Miss is not going to "hand this game" to the Tigers! I look for the Rebels to play their best game of the season and this is a team that is averaging 37 points per game on the season. Also, Mississippi is on a 15-3 SU (and 13-5 ATS) run in home games. In games played on turf the Rebels are on a 37-18 ATS run. Look for the Tigers to drop to 1-9 ATS their last 10 in games the week before facing Vandy. Also, Auburn was 2-8 ATS in regular season non-home games before getting that road win and cover at Mississippi State three weeks ago. The point is that they are not exactly road warriors and yet they are being bet like they are this week. I'll gladly grab the value on the other side and I expect an upset but will take the generous points. 10* OLE MISS REBELS Saturday |
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10-29-16 | Baylor -3.5 v. Texas | 34-35 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
Watch-n-Win Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #159 Saturday - 8* Baylor Bears (-) @ Texas Longhorns @ 3:30 ET - This has become an intense rivalry in Texas as Baylor's football program has improved through the years. The Bears use to be the punching bag of the Longhorns but that all changed 6 years ago when Baylor went into Austin and beat the Horns in 2010. That began a 4-1 run in this series for Baylor but they then lost last year's match-up in Waco. Keep in mind that was one of just 3 homes losses the Bears have had since the 2011 season began! The point is that you can bet Baylor hasn't forgotten that defeat and the boxscore shows what happened. Despite a 479-307 yardage edge the Bears had, Baylor lost due to a 4-0 turnover deficit. Now Baylor heads into Austin this season with a 6-0 record on the season. I am well aware of the fact that the Longhorns (3-4 on the season) have played a tougher schedule this season. However, the Horns 3 wins came against team that have a combined 5-16 record on the season! Their 4 losses were to solid teams but not necessarily powerhouses. Texas has lost two games to teams that are now 5-2 on the season and two games to teams that are now 4-3 on the season. The Longhorn defense is a disaster this season and they're facing a Baylor team that is ranked among top teams in the country on BOTH sides of the ball. The road team has taken each of the last two meetings between these nearby rivals and I look for that trend to continue Saturday. Baylor has fresh legs (off of their bye week) and they've gone 6-1 SU with rest and only failed to cover in 2 of those 7 games. Also, the Bears entered this season with an 8-0 ATS mark in games where they are favored by less than 14 points against a sub-.500 opponent. You can tell by the O/U on this game that a lot of points are expected and I expect Texas to fail to keep up in this one. The Longhorns are 0-3 ATS in home games with a posted total of 70 points or more. The Bears offense will prove to be too much. 8* BAYLOR BEARS Saturday |
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10-29-16 | Penn State v. Purdue OVER 56.5 | Top | 62-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
High Noon Top Total - Rickenbach CFB Game #139/140 Saturday - 10* Top Play OVER 56.5 in Purdue Boilermakers vs Penn State Nittany Lions @ Noon ET - The Nittany Lions are off of their huge upset win over Ohio State last week. That is going to lead to a lack of defensive intensity for this one. That spells trouble against a Purdue team that can put up big yardage through the air. The Boilermakers have thrown for 767 yards the past two weeks. Purdue is averaging 31 points per game at home and the over is on a 11-6 run in their home games. However, the Boilermakers defense, as usual, is a glaring weakness and they won't be able to stop the Nittany Lions offense. While the PSU scoreboard did not impress on offense against Ohio State and Michigan, those are two of the top teams in the nation. In Penn State's other games this season they have averaged 34.6 points per game. They'll be able to easily move the ball on the ground like they did against Maryland - 372 rushing yards! The Boilermakers are allowing an average of 249 rushing yards per game. Penn State's last 5 regular season games not played at Beaver Stadium have all gone over the total. Look for that trend to continue today at West Lafayette. 10* OVER in Purdue |
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10-28-16 | Navy v. South Florida -6.5 | 45-52 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #114 Friday - 8* South Florida Bulls (-) vs Navy Midshipmen @ 7 ET - The Bulls got embarrassed at Temple last Friday. That 16 point defeat has the South Florida defense ready to respond in a huge way. With a bye week on deck for USF, they've had full focus and full energy into preparing for slowing down Navy's triple option attack. The Bulls were not successful in doing so last season but that was their first look. Now they get a shot at revenge and they get that opportunity at home where they made a huge run last season and they look to do the same this season. Keep in mind USF, in earning a bowl bid last season, rallied for a 7-1 finish last year (both SU and ATS) and that included a perfect 4-0 mark (both SU and ATS) at home. The Bulls were off to a 6-1 start this season before last week's ugly effort against the Owls. They will respond this week. This is a quality football team that had gone 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 regular season games prior to their inexcusable effort at Temple. The Bulls will have more intensity this week, will maintain gap coverage on defense, wrap up their tackles better, and have an all-around much stronger effort as they look to avenge last year's loss to Navy. Note that USF is on a 10-4 ATS run as a favorite (and went 13-1 SU in those games). With this line dipping down to 6.5 (was as high as 8.5) it is "go time" with this one. The Midshipmen have a huge game on deck with Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish handed the Middies one of only two losses last season. Navy already got revenge (Houston) for their other loss last season and they certainly could get caught peeking ahead to the big match-up with ND next week while, as noted above, the Bulls have a bye on deck and are fully focused off of an ugly loss. 8* SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS |
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10-27-16 | Jaguars +3.5 v. Titans | Top | 22-36 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
26-0, 100% System Rout - Rickenbach NFL Game #101 - 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (+) @ Tennessee Titans @ 8:25 ET Thursday - Ever since Gus Bradley took over as head coach in Jacksonville, the Jaguars have never failed to cover a game against the Titans. It has been a 4-0-2 ATS run in this series. The Jags have gone 3-3 SU with the 3 wins including a 6 point win and 8 point win and, as for the 3 losses, the Jaguars have never lost by more than 4 points to Tennessee since Bradley became the head coach. That certainly puts this one well into the "play range" as there is value with grabbing the points here. The Titans aren't known for blowing teams out as 2 of their 3 wins this season came by 2 points or less. That means that out of all 7 of their games this season they have only won a game by more than 2 points one time. As for the Jaguars, they had won two straight games before last week's ugly loss but look closely at that defeat last week. The Jags lost by 17 but the yardage was dead even at 344 for the Jaguars and the Raiders. The difference was Jacksonville losing the turnover battle 3 to 0. Before that loss, the Jaguars were 2-3 on the season with the only blowout loss being at San Diego and that was also a turnover-driven final as the Jags outgained the Chargers 388 to 357 but lost the game by 24 points thanks in part to a 3-1 deficit in turnovers. The Titans have forced only one turnover in four home games this season so I don't expect that to be an issue for the Jaguars Thursday night. Also, Tennessee is wearing down as their bye week is not until early December. This is the Titans 5th game in 26 days whereas the Jaguars just had a bye week on the 9th of the month and will be the fresher team here. With last week's loss to the Colts, the Titans are now on a 1-8 ATS run as a favorite. Also, Tennessee is on a 1-12 ATS run in divisional games and they are disappointed about losing to another divisional foe, Indianapolis, for a 10th straight time Sunday! The Titans know they wasted a chance to solidify positioning in the standings and it is often tough to bounce back mentally after a game like that. I look for Tennessee to again struggle here. Jacksonville, in road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points has failed to cover just twice in eight games! Also, there is a perfect system we are testing here. The Jaguars are 9-0 ATS when they are on the road off of an ATS loss by double digits and they are facing an opponent who is off of a SU loss as a favorite. Tennessee is 0-7 ATS in home games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. The Titans are on an 0-10 ATS run when facing a division opponent who is playing with revenge (Jags lost here in last meeting of 2015). That means we are testing a 26-0, 100% ATS combined systems record here! One final note to tighten this one up even more: Tennessee entered this season with a 1-14 ATS mark when facing an opponent who is off of a loss by a double digit margin. With the Jags off of the ugly home loss to Oakland Sunday, they are the play in full bounce back mode here in this weeknight affair. 10* JACKSONVILLE Thursday Night |
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10-27-16 | Virginia Tech v. Pittsburgh +3.5 | 39-36 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CFB Game #108 Thursday - 8* Pittsburgh Panthers (+) vs Virginia Tech Hokies @ 7 ET - Deservedly, the Hokies get a lot of positive press for their defense. However, if you look at their last 4 games, Virginia Tech has allowed at least 323 passing yards in 3 of the 4 games. The only exception was the game against North Carolina and that's because that game was played when Hurricane Matthew as pounding the area. In the other 3 games not impacted by weather, the Hokies have allowed an average of 363 passing yards per game. Of course, the Panthers are known for being a run-first team that likes to rely on the ground attack. However, Pittsburgh is off of their bye week and coach Pat Narduzzi is an excellent coach who has had extra time to prepare for this game. The Panthers will continue to "pound on the ground" but don't be surprise if they have the playbook on offense opened up a little bit more for this "must win" game in the ACC Coastal Division. Pittsburgh has averaged nearly 200 passing yards per game in their last 5 games. Also, on the ground, the Panthers have averaged 264.5 rushing yards per game their last 6 games. The last time Virginia Tech was off of a big win (34-3 over North Carolina covered spread by 28 points) they then got upset at Syracuse the very next week. The Hokies, when off of a win where they covered the spread by 14 points or more, are on a 2-8 ATS run. Off of their huge win (37-16 as a 4.5 point fave over Miami) last week, look for Virginia Tech to come up short this week. The Panthers are rested and off of a bye and the Hokies get caught still celebrating a big win that moved them into the Top 25. Teams often get knocked off after games like this and certainly an outright upset for Pitt would not surprise but I am grabbing the points here. The Hokies are on a 4-10 ATS run as a road favorite and Pittsburgh has dominated this series with an 8-1 ATS run. The Panthers are also on a 4-1 ATS run as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points. 8* PITTSBURGH Thursday Night |
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10-24-16 | Texans v. Broncos -8 | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
MNF Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #478 Monday - 8* Denver Broncos (-) vs Houston Texans @ 8:30 ET - Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak was fired by the Texans late in the 2013 season. Needless to say this game carries special meaning for him. Houston QB Brock Osweiler spurned Denver for a big contract with the Texans in the off-season. At his news conference he said he felt this gave him the best chance to win. Keep in mind he went from a Super Bowl winner to a Houston franchise that hasn't won a playoff game since after the 2012 season. The Broncos are hungry to take their shots (literally) at Osweiler and company tonight. Not only is this a revenge game for coach Kubiak and his players, they also are very hungry to get back into the win column as they are coming off of back to back losses. One was a tight home loss to a surging Falcons team but the other was a road loss at San Diego (a game coach Kubiak missed). Denver plays well with extra rest. Earlier this season after a Thursday game they then blasted Indianapolis by 14 for a win and cover. The Broncos are now 8-1 ATS when off of a Thursday game. After the loss to the Chargers last Thursday, Denver is rested and ready to improve that mark to 9-1 ATS. Houston is on an ugly 1-7 ATS run in Monday night football as the Texans do not have a history of performing well under the lights. Remember they got embarrassed 27-0 at New England in a Thursday night game earlier this season. Though Houston got the win versus Indianapolis this past Sunday night, they had to rally from 14 points down with 3 minutes to go in the game. The Texans got the shocking win in overtime but this is not the Colts at home they are facing. Rather, this is the Broncos in Denver and I am expecting a blowout loss here because Denver won't hesitate to pile up the points here if given the opportunity. They hate Osweiler and Kubiak hates Houston. They also are fired up because they are off of rare back to back losses. That just doesn't happen much with the Broncos! In fact, this is just the 4th time it has happened dating back to 2012. The result the first three times? A perfect 3-0 with an average margin of victory of 12 points per game. This one has the makings of a big-time blowout. 8* DENVER BRONCOS Monday |
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10-23-16 | Seahawks v. Cardinals -1 | 6-6 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #476 Sunday - 8* Arizona Cardinals (-1 or Pick'em) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 8:30 ET - After some inconsistent play early this season, the Cardinals finally were able to put together back to back strong performances and they enter Sunday's huge divisional showdown off of consecutive wins. The Cardinals will have the Sunday night lights at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona tonight and they have revenge on their minds here. Seattle has won all three games at Arizona since Bruce Arians has been the head coach. Not only that, the Cardinals (and Arians!) have been embarrassed by a combined score of 105 to 34 in those games. Needless to say, the Cardinals have revenge and payback on their minds here. One thing going in their favor is that the Seahawks have struggled at times with their revamped offensive line and the departure of Marshawn Lynch. The running game is not as consistent as it once was and neither is the pass protection. The Seahawks were fortunate to get the win over Atlanta last week as a late non-call in a penalty situation certainly played a role in the final outcome. The Seahawks did fail to get the cover and are now 2-7 ATS in games played in weeks 5 through 9. This lull in the 2nd quarter of the season could creep up again as they barely got by the Falcons last week and now face a revenge-minded Arizona team trying to build on their first winning streak of the season. The Cardinals tend to thrive in games like this as they are 10-2 SU (and 9-3 ATS) in their last dozen games where the line is a field goal or less whether they are the favorite or the dog. Also, unlike the Hawks, this is the Cards time of year as they have gone 9-2 SU (and 8-3 ATS) in weeks 5 through 9. It is time for the Cardinals to finally 'get one' at home against the Seahawks. The Cards haven't forgotten last season's 36-6 embarrassing home loss. 8* ARIZONA CARDINALS |
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10-23-16 | Patriots v. Steelers +7.5 | Top | 27-16 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
Ultimate PA Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #474 Sunday - 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers +7.5 vs New England Patriots @ 4:25 ET - Yes, the Patriots are off of back to back dominating wins since Tom Brady returned. However, those teams are a combined 2-10 on the season. Yes, the Steelers are without Ben Roethlisberger today. However, they are also a quality team that was 4-1 this season before he got hurt during the loss at Miami last week that dropped Pittsburgh to 4-2 on the season. The point is that this is still a quality Steelers team and QB Landry Jones has had ample time now to prepare as the starter for this game. After their first loss this season the Steelers responded by blasting the Chiefs 43 to 14. Granted, the Patriots certainly are not the Chiefs but, keep in mind, the Steelers don't have to blast the Pats to get the money for us here. In fact, they don't even have to win the game. All they have to do is remain competitive throughout this game and I absolutely see that happening after last week's embarrassing loss. The Steelers overall numbers on defense do not impress but they have certainly shown a lot of "bend but don't break" D this season. That is why Pittsburgh has allowed 16 points or less in all 4 of their wins! The Steelers normally are at their best against quality opposition and, in fact, have gone 12-3 SU in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. The Patriots win at Cleveland two weeks ago was the first time they've covered as a favorite of more than 4 points in a road game against against an AFC foe in quite some time. Their record in that situation is now 1-7 ATS their last 8 and this is a large spread for the Pats on the road against a quality AFC opponent. The Steelers are undervalued here. Grab the home dog. 10* PITTSBURGH STEELERS |
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10-23-16 | Chargers v. Falcons -4.5 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
Non-Conf NFL Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #470 Sunday - 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons -4.5 vs San Diego Chargers @ 4:05 ET - The Falcons continue to be under-valued and this is a another nice spot to back them as they are hungry off of a tight loss. I rode Atlanta against last week, after having them the week before in their outright win at Denver, and the Falcons were robbed on a late non-call that should have been a penalty. Atlanta still got the cash for me but that cost ATL the outright win. Still, the good news is that means the Falcons will be extra hungry this week and they have covered 5 in a row. I have ridden Atlanta with either a star rated pick or free pick each of their last 4 games so I have been in on a good portion of this hot streak and I see no reason why it won't continue here. The Chargers are off of a huge upset win over Denver and that could leave them flat here. They've lost 8 of their last 9 games with the Falcons and they've also lost 10 fumbles already this season. San Diego has trouble closing out games and Atlanta is the #1 offense in the league. I just don't see the Chargers being able to keep up in this one as they've averaged 3 turnovers per game the last 4 weeks and the Falcons have only averaged 0.83 turnovers per game on the season! Atlanta's strength, Matt Ryan and the passing attack, goes right at the heart of the Chargers main weakness which is pass defense. The Chargers are on a 1-5 ATS run when playing away after a Thursday game and this is also a tough trip as it is an East Coast trip to a non-conference foe and the situation is made even tougher after coming off of a big divisional home win. I don't expect the Chargers to have much left in the tank to match the high emotions of a Falcons team that is still steaming mad from what happened last week. 10* ATLANTA FALCONS |
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10-23-16 | Bills -2.5 v. Dolphins | 25-28 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL Game #461 Sunday - 8* Buffalo Bills -2.5 @ Miami Dolphins @ 1 ET - The Dolphins are off of a huge win versus the Steelers last week. After a 15 point win as a 7 point underdog, it can be tough to duplicate the effort. Undoubtedly Miami left a lot on the field in that huge win last week and that ATS victory was preceded by 4 straight non-covers. Also, that was just the 2nd win of the season for the Dolphins. The Bills have been at the other end of the spectrum as they come into this game off of 4 straight wins and they covered the spread in each of those victories. While Buffalo has turned the ball over only 4 times this season, the Dolphins, prior to last week's surprising win, had 11 turnovers in their past 4 games. The Bills have won 5 of the last 6 meetings with Miami and RB LeSean McCoy (3 TDs last week) has had his injury status upgraded to probable for this game. The Dolphins are on a 1-9 ATS run in divisional games while Buffalo is on a 14-6 ATS run in AFC East games and certainly is on a power surge right now. With the small road price here on the much better team, I won't hesitate to step in. 8* BUFFALO BILLS |
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10-23-16 | Ravens +2.5 v. Jets | 16-24 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL Game #467 Sunday - 8* Baltimore Ravens +2.5 @ New York Jets @ 1 ET - The Ravens certainly have been "snakebit" in terms of getting covers. It dates back to last season when they had a 5-11 straight-up record and also only covered 5 of their 16 games ATS. This season, the Ravens are on a tough ATS streak after losing on a 4th and 1 play to the Giants last week as that short yardage play turned into a game-winning "catch and run" TD for Odell Beckham Jr. The key to this play today is we shouldn't have to worry about the spread (although I'll gladly grab the 2.5 points being offered) as Baltimore should take this one outright. The Ravens visit a Jets team that not only has lost 4 straight but has been getting hammered in each game. New York has lost each of their last 4 games by a double digit margin and the Jets have only produced an average of 9 points per game during this 4 game losing streak. With QB Joe Flacco listed as probable now for the Ravens, and with Baltimore having totaled at least 282 passing yards in 3 of their last 5 games, I just don't see the Jets keeping up in this game. New York is sinking fast in the AFC East while the Ravens, especially with the fact that the Steelers Roethlisberger is going to miss some time, know they can keep pace in the AFC North with a win today. With a bye on deck and fully motivated after last week's late loss here at the Meadowlands (against the Giants), look for the Ravens to pull the road "upset" here. As a home favorite of 3 points or less, the Jets have gone 0-5 SU and ATS their last 5. The Ravens are on a 4-0 ATS run in games against AFC East teams. 8* BALTIMORE RAVENS |
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10-23-16 | Colts +3.5 v. Titans | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL Game #465 Sunday - 8* Indianapolis Colts +3.5 @ Tennessee Titans @ 1 ET Sunday - The Colts blew a game they never should of lost at Houston last week as they gave up 2 TD lead in the 4th quarter and then lost in OT. Also, Indianapolis definitely has been dealing with some injury issues. However, Indy is highly like to "rally the troops" this week at Tennessee. Facing the Titans means that the Colts get a 2nd straight shot against a key divisional foe and Indy can tie them in the standings with a win today. Houston has a tough match-up at Denver Monday night so the Colts know they are still much very alive in the watered-down AFC South and I look for Andrew Luck and Company to put it all together in an early "must-win" game. Waiting here has paid off as the line has moved all the way up to a 3.5 as of Sunday morning. Of course that is mostly due to the injuries the Colts have been dealing with. However, taking a look at the Titans, they are only 1-2 at home this season and that lone win came by only 2 points and that was against the lowly 0-6 Browns last week! The Titans certainly are the better defensive team in this match-up but the Colts have the much more productive offense. There is now a lot of line value here with the move from well below a 3 to now above 3. Tennessee hasn't exactly been a "covering machine" as, in fact, the Titans are on an ugly 2-11 SU (and 1-11-1 ATS) run in divisional games! The Colts have won 10 of their last 14 divisional games and, even with last week's tough push ATS, they are on a 9-2-1 ATS run in weeks 5 through 9 the past 3 seasons combined. The value is with the dog here as, keep in mind, the Colts only have 1 loss by more than 4 points so far this season and the Titans only have one win by more than 2 points this season. Look for the Colts to defeat the Titans a 9th straight time but I will grab the generous points here. 8* INDIANAPOLIS COLTS |
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10-22-16 | Washington State v. Arizona State OVER 63.5 | Top | 37-32 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
Pac 12 Total of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #363/364 Saturday - 10* Top Play OVER in Arizona State Sun Devils vs Washington State Cougars @ 10 PM ET - The Sun Devils are off of a disappointing effort on the road as they scored just 16 points last week. However, this is a team that averaged 54 points per game in their first three home games this season before struggling some against a tough UCLA defense in a 23-20 win two weeks ago. Arizona State will take advantage of home field and facing a mediocre Washington State defense to put up some huge points on the board Saturday. The Cougars recent defensive numbers look better but, keep in mind, they faced the struggling offenses of Stanford and UCLA. Prior that, against Oregon and Boise State and Eastern Washington, the Cougars allowed an average of 36 points per game. While there is no questioning the fact that neither one of these teams is particularly stellar on defense, the offenses are very dynamic (Sun Devils QB Manny Wilkins now healthy). Washington State is averaging 501 yards per game on the season! The Sun Devils are averaging 459 yards per game at home. Washington State is on a 16-9 run to the over in games where they are favored in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. Arizona State, in home or neutral site games against FBS teams, with a posted total of 60 or more, is on a perfect 5-0 run to the over. The Cougars are on a 4-2 run to the over in their last 6 road games. More of the same on Saturday. 10* OVER in Arizona State |
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10-22-16 | Ole Miss +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 21-38 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #399 Saturday - 10* Top Play Ole Miss Rebels (+) @ LSU @ 9 ET - LSU is in a perfect "play against" spot here. The Tigers certainly have revenge on their minds as they lost badly at Ole Miss last year. However, LSU is simply overvalued in this spot. They have gone from being a 4 point favorite to laying more than a TD in this match-up and that is offering great value to the talented underdog in this match-up. There is a lot of chatter about how great LSU has played since they fired Les Miles after losing to Auburn. However, the Tigers have played only Missouri and Southern Miss since the dismissal of Miles. Missouri is 0-3 in SEC action and has one of the worst defenses in the SEC. Southern Miss is a CUSA team that, other than wins over an FCS school and a 1-6 UTEP team, has allowed 40 points per game in their other 5 games! Ole Miss certainly does not have a great defense but they have forced 7 turnovers in their past three games and the Rebels do have a dynamic offense. This combination has helped lead the way to a 3-2 run their last 5 games and the two losses each came by 5 points or less and one of those was to #1 ranked Alabama. The point is that the Rebels can hang with anybody and I am not convinced that LSU is "back" just because they beat up on two over-matched opponents. Ole Miss is on a 6-2 ATS run as an away dog and 5 of the last 7 meetings between these teams have been decided by 7 points or less. The Rebels are also a PERFECT 6-0 ATS when they are an underdog in a game following a SU loss. After losing to Arkansas last week, the Rebels get the job done this week. 10* OLE MISS |
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10-22-16 | Old Dominion +14 v. Western Kentucky | 24-59 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
Bargain Hunter - Rickenbach CFB Game #385 Saturday - 8* Old Dominion Monarchs (+) @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ 7 ET - Western Kentucky has gotten the win and cover in each of the first two meetings between these teams - 2014 and 2015. However, both games were very tight to the number and both times the Hilltoppers truly were fortunate to get the cover. Look for the 3rd time to be the charm for the hungry Monarchs in this one. Old Dominion is off of their bye week and they had 3 straight wins prior to the bye. They are rested and confident as they piled up over 500 yards of offense in their win over UMass before the bye. The Monarchs are averaging 483 yards of offense per game in their last 3 games and they catch Western Kentucky off of a grueling double-OT win over Middle Tennessee State. The Hilltoppers were outgained by 84 yards in that game. Western Kentucky has had a knack for tight games this season. The exceptions were a blowout win over Rice (but the Owls are the only remaining winless FBS team) and a blowout loss to Alabama (but they are #1 team in the country) and a blowout win over an FCS team. Of course Old Dominion doesn't fall into any of those categories and I expect another tight Hilltopper game decided by just a single possession. With Western Kentucky off of back to back emotional road games and the Monarchs are off of their bye and buoyed by the return of RB Ray Lawry in their most recent game, this one could be an upset. The Hilltoppers just do not have a solid defense and Lawry and fellow RB Jeremy Cox will keep pounding away on the ground while QB David Washington (12 TDs, only 2 INTs) keeps the defense honest. The Monarchs can put up points in a hurry and they are 4-1 ATS in road games with a posted total between 63.5 and 70 points. 8* OLD DOMINION |
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10-22-16 | TCU v. West Virginia -6 | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Rickenbach CFB Game #326 Saturday - 8* West Virginia Mountaineers (-) vs TCU Horned Frogs @ 3:30 ET - TCU is not the team it used to be and a lot of that has to do with a defense that just isn't what it once was. The Horned Frogs are allowing 30 points per game this season and their D ranks 86th in the nation. The Mountaineers have flexed their muscles on D with a "bend but don't break" defense that has allowed only 19.4 points per game on the season. Last week, West Virginia was very impressive in holding a dangerous Texas Tech offense (one of the best in the nation) to only 379 yards in a dominating 48 to 17 win. While it may seem that the Mountaineers could be flat off such a big win, the fact is that this is West Virginia's only home game between October 1st and November 5th. In other words, they certainly are going to bring their strongest effort for this one and they also have revenge on their minds as the Mountaineers lost 40-10 at TCU last year and also were defeated by a single point here at home in 2014 when they last hosted the Horned Frogs. West Virginia is 7-3 SU and ATS when off of a win against a conference foe. TCU was outgained by a pathetic Kansas team last week by a 470 to 366 margin. The Horned Frogs only other road game was against a weak SMU team. Now facing their first tough road test of the season, TCU is likely to get blasted. 8* WEST VIRGINIA |
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10-22-16 | Wisconsin -3.5 v. Iowa | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
Rickenbach CFB Game #333 Saturday - 8* Wisconsin Badgers -3.5 @ Iowa @ Noon ET - Even though the Badgers are off of a hard-fought OT loss versus Ohio State last week, they have their sights set on revenge here as they suffered a home loss to Iowa last season. The Hawkeyes are currently over-valued in my opinion as they have played a much weaker schedule in comparison with Wisconsin. While the Badgers have played the likes of Michigan and the Buckeyes in their past two games (both teams are 6-0 on the season), Iowa has played much weaker Big Ten teams like Minnesota, Northwestern, and Purdue. The Hawkeyes are on a 6-12 ATS run in home games. The Badgers are on a 9-5 ATS run in their games against teams with a winning record. Wisconsin really got their offense going last week (450 yards) against a tough Ohio State team last week and the Badgers have one of the top defenses in the nation. Look for the road fave to get their revenge as the road team has won 5 straight games in this series. I expect 6 in a row after today's game is in the books. 8* WISCONSIN |
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10-22-16 | NC State +20 v. Louisville | 13-54 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
Rickenbach CFB Game #337 Saturday - 8* NC State Wolfpack (+) @ Louisville Cardinals @ Noon ET - The combination of the loss to Clemson and the bye week seemed to take the air out of the sails of this Cardinals team as they did not impress versus Duke last week. Louisville came nowhere close to covering in that game and they did not force a turnover. Even though the Cardinals only turned the ball over once versus the Blue Devils, the Cards had turned the ball over at least 3 times in 4 of their 5 prior games. That could be an issue here against an opportunistic Wolfpack defense that has forced 7 turnovers in their past two games. NC State is seeking revenge here for a home loss to Louisville last year. The Wolfpack have lost the two meetings by a combined total of 19 points the past two seasons and yet, with money pouring in on Louisville for this game, the spread is now up to 20 on this game. This is offering big dog value to an NC State team that is allowing only 18.7 points per game this season. That is nearly a full TD less than what Louisville is allowing on the season. Certainly the Cardinals are the better team here but, the point is, it may be tough for them to get a big margin in this game. NC State is a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games played on turf. Louisville has a road game at Virginia on deck which certainly may not seem like a big deal but they did lose their last trip to Virginia. That said, they may start peeking ahead to that road game as this one goes on and I don't expect this game to be decided by anything more than a 2 TD margin. The Cardinals are on a 2-6 ATS run as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. 8* NC STATE |
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10-21-16 | South Florida -6.5 v. Temple | 30-46 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Early ESPN Smash - Rickenbach CFB Game #309 Friday - 8* South Florida Bulls (-) @ Temple Owls @ 7 ET - Even though the Bulls failed to cover versus Connecticut Saturday, it truly was a dominating effort as they outgained the Huskies by 151 yards in the 15 point win. South Florida hurt themselves with 4 turnovers but that was very unusual as they had averaged just 1 turnover per game in their first 6 games this season. In other words, one shouldn't expect a repeat of that this week for USF. However, as for Temple, they have struggled all season with turnovers. The Owls are off of a very fortunate win as they got the winning TD with just 1 tick left on the clock. Temple turned the ball over twice in that game at Central Florida, but the Owls had already turned the ball over 3 times in a game in 3 of their 6 prior games. It's been a recurring theme for the Owls this season and they face a USF team that has faced a tougher schedule than Temple has and yet the Bulls offense is still averaging 128 yards more per game than the Owls are. South Florida crushed the Owls by 21 at home last season and, even though they are now facing them at Temple, the Bulls can roll again behind a potent offense. The Owls are 6-1 ATS this season and they were 9-3 ATS in regular season games last year. That continues to make Temple a popular choice and effects their pricing in the markets and, in this case, with the Bulls currently laying 6.5 in this game, the price has come down low enough to absolutely warrant a solid investment in USF. South Florida is on a 13-0 SU run as a favorite and they are 10-3 ATS in those games including 5-1 ATS this season. As a road favorite the Bulls are on a 4-1 ATS run. As for Temple, the Owls are on a long-term run of 15-97 SU against teams with a winning record. If you think that is only ancient history it is truly not as even the last 3 seasons combined they are only 5-9 SU against teams with a winning record. Temple will again struggle with facing a better team (Bulls have also faced the tougher schedule this season) and when USF failed to cover against the Huskies last week it broke a streak of 12-0 ATS in their last 12 SU wins. In other words, when the Bulls win, they nearly always cover. Look for the win and cover for the road fave in this one. 8* SOUTH FLORIDA Friday |
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10-20-16 | Bears v. Packers -7.5 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 23 h 42 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #302 Thursday - 8* Green Bay Packers (-) vs Chicago Bears @ 8:25 ET - Green Bay is off of an embarrassing home loss to the Cowboys Sunday. There is plenty of reason to believe that the Packers bounce back huge on Thursday night. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers has an incredible record of 16-3 SU and ATS in divisional games when the Packers are off of an ATS loss. That's right, Rodgers and The Pack get the cover over 80% of the time in situations like this. Green Bay is motivated about much more than just the loss last week to Dallas. The Packers also haven't forgotten last season's Thursday night game against the Bears. Green Bay came into that game having won and covered each of their last four meetings with Chicago. The Packers were an 8 point favorite in that game and they not only failed to cover, they lost the game outright. Worse yet, it was a game on Thanksgiving Night and it was the game during which Brett Favre's number was retired at half-time! Green Bay is fired up about getting a little payback against a division rival and the Bears come in on a horrible skid as they are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. The Packers are on a 10-5 ATS run in divisional home games where they are favored. Also, even with that Thanksgiving loss to Chicago, Green Bay is 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10 games against the Bears. Chicago is on a long-term 7-21 ATS run in road games with a posted total between 45.5 and 49 points. The Packers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Packers need to bounce back here after last week's loss, the Bears struggles have continued, and the revenge angle is a BIG ONE for a hungry home team here. Lay it! 8* GREEN BAY PACKERS minus the points Thursday Night |
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10-20-16 | Miami (Fla) +6 v. Virginia Tech | 16-37 | Loss | -102 | 22 h 16 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #303 THURSDAY - 8* Miami Hurricanes (+) @ Virginia Tech Hokies @ 7 ET - The Canes are on a 4-1 ATS run the last 5 years in match-ups with the Hokies. Of course that featured head coach Al Golden versus head coach Frank Beamer. But that offers perhaps even more value to this match-up in terms of backing the Hurricanes. Miami replaced a struggling Al Golden with a head coach, Mark Richt, who had a 145-51 record heading into this season. Virginia Tech replaced a future Hall of Famer with a head coach, Justin Fuente, who had a 26-23 record heading into this season. That is no disrespect to Fuente rather it is just to show the two different situations these guys walked into and, with both teams off of disappointing efforts last week, it is more likely that Richt's Hurricanes bounce back. Miami has lost back to back games and they have not lost three straight since 2014. As for the Hokies, they are trying to avoid back to back losses but that is something that has yet to happen this season but happened on multiple occasions in both 2015 and 2014. The point is that the odds certainly favor that is the Canes who bounce back here. These teams have faced similar schedules this season in terms of strength of schedule and both teams have been solid on defense with only 4.2 yards per play allowed so far this season. The difference is in the offensive efficiency as Miami is one of the top teams in the nation with 7 yards per play while Virginia Tech ranks in the lower half of team in the nation with their offense producing only 5.5 yards per play. The Hokies defense also was helped statistically because they recently played North Carolina in horrible weather conditions because of Hurricane Matthew. Note that in their other recent games, Virginia Tech was scorched for 561 overall yards at Syracuse and 362 passing yards at the hands of East Carolina. Other than the game against the Tar Heels (D helped by poor weather conditions), the Hokies defense has faced 3 respectable opponents this season. In those games (Syracuse, East Carolina, and Tennessee), Virginia Tech has allowed an average of 31 points per game! As for Miami, they are allowing an average of only 14 points per game this season and the Hurricanes have not allowed more than 21 points in any game this season. Also, there have been 6 outright upsets in the last 13 meetings between these teams but certainly I am grabbing the points although an outright win would not be a big surprise. The Hokies are on a 5-10 ATS run as a home favorite and this line has climbed up to very near a full touchdown. The Hurricanes are on a 6-2 ATS run in road games with a posted total between 49.5 and 56 points. The Hokies are on an 0-4 ATS run in home games with a posted total between 49.5 and 56 points. 8* MIAMI HURRICANES plus the points early Thursday evening |
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10-17-16 | Jets +8 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-28 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #277 Monday - 10* Top Play New York Jets (+) @ Arizona Cardinals @ 8:30 ET - The Jets have an ugly record on the season and the Cardinals are getting QB Carson Palmer back under center for this one. However, the keys to this match-up lie a little deeper in the details. The Jets have played a tougher schedule than have the Cards. Both teams faced the Bills but taking a look at the rest of their schedule, note that Arizona played New England when they were without Tom Brady and then their other three games have not featured a single team that currently has a winning record. As for New York, the Jets have lost three straight games (SU and ATS) but all 3 defeats came against teams that currently have a winning record on the season. In fact, those 3 teams have a combined 11-5 mark on the year. The other key to the value here with the Jets (currently priced at +7.5 in this game) is the fact that head coach Todd Bowles played under Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians when he was at Temple from '82 to '85. Also, Bowles was the defensive coordinator at Arizona (under HC Arians) in 2013 and 2014. There is a little extra motivation, to say the least, for Bowles in this match-up. Additionally, he has some additional knowledge of the Cardinals personnel from having recently coached there. In terms of trends in this match-up, note that Arizona is a long-term ugly 1-11 ATS in games where they are a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. Also, the Cardinals are known for faltering on Monday night with an 0-6 ATS run in their last 6 and also they are off of a big Thursday night win over the 49'ers and they are on a 1-6 ATS run the week after facing San Francisco. Arizona also has a big divisional game on deck with Seattle so it is hard for the Cards not to look ahead here. The Jets are the hungrier, more motivated team here and they also are getting significant points which makes for excellent line value here. The Cardinals have some key injuries at the guard positions on the offensive line and the Jets have a strong defensive line and will win this game in the trenches. 10* NEW YORK JETS plus the big points in Monday Night Football |
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10-16-16 | Colts +3 v. Texans | 23-26 | Push | 0 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #275 Sunday - 8* Indianapolis Colts (+) @ Houston Texans @ 8:30 ET - Very interesting match-up with the better offense and bad defense - Colts - taking on the stronger defense and weak offense - Texans. Certainly the Colts have had issues with pass protection but the Texans defense is definitely missing JJ Watt. So what is the key match-up in my opinion? It is simply Andrew Luck versus Brock Osweiler. In my opinion, there is no way I am taking Osweiler over Luck under the Sunday night lights. The Colts play-calling on offense will be predicated around the fact that the line is struggling to protect Luck. Therefore we could some quick handoffs and quick short passing routes or screen passes which will help keep Luck on his feet plus will help keep the Texans defense off balance. That said, I certainly look for Luck to be the one that "makes plays" in this game while Osweiler continues to struggle for the Texans. Indianapolis plays this game with revenge from a home loss to Houston last December. Prior to that defeat the Colts had won 23 of the last 27 meetings. The Colts are on a 9-2 ATS run in games played in weeks 5 through 9. The Texans are 0-3 SU and ATS in home games where the posted total is between 45.5 and 49 points. Simply put, the Houston offense won't be able to keep up with Andrew Luck and Company in this one as the Colts get revenge for last December's home loss. 8* INDIANAPOLIS Sunday Night |
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10-16-16 | Cowboys v. Packers -4 | 30-16 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Blowout of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #274 Sunday - 8* Green Bay Packers (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - Green Bay burned me a little last week as they had a big lead on the Giants and let up a little bit and then the Packers ended up being a "push" in their game last week for most even though they held New York to only 219 yards of offense. The Packers are still on a 19-9 ATS run as a non-divisional home favorite and they are known for giving Dallas trouble. Green Bay is on a 4-1 ATS run overall against the Cowboys and the Packers are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at Lambeau Field hosting Dallas. The Packers are 6-0 ATS as home favorites against the NFC East. Green Bay is also 6-1 ATS when facing an opponent off of a straight-up dog win. The Cowboys definitely looked good in their outright upset win over the Bengals last week but this is their first game this season against a team with a winning record and Dallas is on a 4-8 ATS run in games against teams with an above .500 record. Also, the Cowboys are on a long-term 17-27 ATS run as road dogs in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. The Packers are on a 6-1 ATS run in games where they are a home fave in a range of 3.5 to 7 points and also 5-0 ATS in home games where the posted total is between 45.5 and 49 points. Combining those trends with the ones above favoring the Packers. we are testing a combined 28-3 ATS run in favor of the home fave. 8* GREEN BAY Sunday late afternoon |
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10-16-16 | Falcons +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
Top Contrarian Play - Rickenbach NFL Game #271 Sunday - 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ Seattle @ 4:25 ET - Seattle's defense looks great statistically so far this season. However, they have played some of the worst teams in terms of offensive production so far this year. Miami, LA, San Francisco, and the Jets are hardly a "who's who" of offensive powerhouses. That said, if any offense can march into CenturyLink Field and not be bothered by the noise in Seattle, it is Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Atlanta has the number one offense in the league this season and they have helped lead the way to a 4-1 start to the season for the Falcons. The other key to this play is the fact that Atlanta head coach Dan Quinn was the defensive coordinator with the Seahawks in 2013 and 2014. This the first meeting between these teams since he's been gone from Seattle. You better believe that Quinn wants this game badly and you'd better believe that he has an edge in terms of understanding the personnel and systems of the Seahawks. That said, the fact we are getting about a full TD here with the much better offensive team is too good to pass up. Seattle is still a quality football team but they are regressing in my opinion. They went from SB win in 2013 to SB loss to 2014 to NFC Championship loss in 2015. This season the regression will continue in my opinion but we just haven't seen it yet due to their soft schedule thusfar. The Hawks are off of their bye week but they do have a big game with division rival Arizona on deck. Also, the Falcons don't even want a bye right now as they simply keep on rolling. Their win at Denver last was their fourth straight upset victory. Even though the Falcons are on the road again for a 2nd straight week they simply stayed out west to prepare for this game. This Atlanta team has bonded together very well and this road trip will continue their surge. They are on a 9-1 ATS run their last 10 in the underdog role. The Seahawks are 1-6 ATS when they are at home and playing with rest. Seattle is also 1-5 ATS when they have the Cardinals on deck. The Falcons are 8-1 ATS off of a SU dog win when facing a non-divisional opponent. This is a classic case of an undervalued road dog against an overvalued home fave and that has created generous line value here. 10* ATLANTA in Sunday's late afternoon action |
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10-16-16 | Eagles -2.5 v. Redskins | 20-27 | Loss | -119 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #267 Sunday - 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Washington Redskins @ 1 ET - Despite outgaining the Lions by over 100 yards last week, the Eagles came up on the wrong end of the scoreboard and suffered their first loss of the season. That sets this one up nicely in terms of the line value because the Redskins are off of a tight win at Baltimore in a game that clearly could have gone either way last week. Washington was fortunate in terms of the weather (gusty winds) limiting the Ravens offense last week. Prior to that game, the Redskins had allowed 27 points per game in their first 4 games of the season. Washington should prove to be no match for an Eagles team that has proven to be very well balanced early this season and currently ranks among the top offensive and defensive units in the league so far this season. After a tough loss last week, the Eagles will be flying all over the field in their first divisional game of the season. Philly is on a 25-14 ATS run in road games with a posted total in a range of 42.5 to 45 points. Washington is on a 16-30 ATS run in home games with a posted total in a range of 42.5 to 45 points. The Eagles defense (allowing only 266.8 yards per game) will key the road win here. 8* PHILADELPHIA early Sunday |
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10-16-16 | Ravens +3.5 v. Giants | Top | 23-27 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
EARLY Top Side - Rickenbach NFL Game #253 Sunday - 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (+) @ New York Giants @ 1 ET - Ravens offense struggled last week in a home loss to the Redskins but Baltimore was limited by gusty winds in that game. The weather conditions today in East Rutherford, New Jersey will be beautiful and I expect the Ravens to take full advantage. Baltimore has the better pass protection (5.0% sack %) so far this season and the Giants have struggled to get to the quarterback (1.9% sack %) so far this year. Baltimore has also had the better defense this season with the #3 ranked D based on yardage while the Giants defense ranks only in the middle of the pack so far this year. The Giants were fortunate to get the ATS push last week at Green Bay as they only had 219 yards of offense in that game. This followed a dismal Monday night performance at Minnesota where the Giants only put 10 points on the board. Look for their struggles on offense to continue here as Baltimore improves on a 4-1 ATS (and SU) mark in their last five meetings with the Giants. The Ravens are on a long-term 81-33 SU run in games against teams with a losing record while the Giants are on a short-term 1-13 SU run in games against teams with a winning record. There is plenty of line value here with grabbing the points as Baltimore is 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog while the Giants are already 0-2 ATS this season when favored in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Ravens entered this season with an 8-0 ATS mark when they are road dogs of 3or more points and their facing a team off of a SU loss. That system is in play in this one! Also, the Ravens are on a 7-0 ATS run when they are off of back to back losses (SU and ATS) and they are facing an opponent whose winning percentage is .750 or less. Baltimore is also 8-1 ATS as a non-divisional dog of 2 points or more when they are off of an ATS loss by double digits. Last week the Ravens were -4 and they lost outright by 6 points so this system is in play as well as they missed the cover by 10 points last week. Additionally they entered the season on an 8-1 ATS run when facing an NFC opponent off of a SU loss. The Giants have a trip to London on deck as an additional distraction here. 10* BALTIMORE Sunday |
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10-15-16 | Arizona State v. Colorado OVER 61 | Top | 16-40 | Loss | -118 | 26 h 28 m | Show |
TOTAL OF THE MONTH - Rickenbach CFB Game #181/182 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER in Colorado Buffaloes vs Arizona State Sun Devils @ 8 ET - Both of these teams are off of back to back unders. But in their first games this month their totals fell just short. In last week's games there was an asterisk by each game in terms of the total points achieved. Last week the Sun Devils didn't have QB Manny Wilkins but he's probable for this week's game. As for the Buffaloes, they only allowed 21 points at USC last week but they were fortunate to say the least as Colorado's defense was gouged for 539 yards. This is all helping to offer some nice line value with this total being held down a little lower than it should be given the situation and also given the fact that the weather conditions will be perfect for a high-scoring game in Boulder, Colorado on Saturday night. Mild temperatures, clear skies, and light winds. Look for plenty of offense as the Buffaloes had averaged 43.2 points per game in their first 5 games before last week's tough match-up with USC. As for Arizona State, they also had averaged 43 points per game in their first 5 games of the season before they struggled without Wilkins vs UCLA last week. The Sun Devils defense is a major weakness as they are allowing 404.3 passing yards per game this season. The Buffaloes defense has faced 3 weak offenses this season so they put up good numbers in those but against the tougher offenses (and Arizona State certainly falls into that category), the Buffs D has allowed 481 yards per game! This one has the makings of a back and forth shootout and the over is 12-7 in the Sun Devils last 19 games against teams with a winning record. Also, the over is 10-6 in the Buffaloes last 16 games against teams with a winning record. Two strong offenses, two questionable defenses, perfect weather, and line value. It's all there with this one! 10* OVER in Colorado Saturday |
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10-15-16 | Texas-San Antonio v. Rice +3.5 | Top | 14-13 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
C-USA Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #170 Saturday - 10* Top Play Rice Owls (+) vs UTSA Roadrunners @ 7 ET Saturday - UTSA is over-rated right now and Rice is under-rated. As a result, there is solid line value here with the home dog. The Roadrunners are off of a big win over Southern Miss but it was a deceiving final score. UT-San Antonio beat the Golden Eagles by a 55-32 final score but gave up 557 yards in the game! The key was 3 Southern Miss turnovers and also that game was a home game for UTSA. Now the Roadrunners take to the road where they have lost both of their games this season and certainly they are not known for being road warriors. Overall, UTSA is on a 3-9 ATS run as a favorite. Rice is off of a much needed bye week and they are playing this game with revenge. A loss to the Roadrunners last season cost the Owls a chance at a bowl game. Rice hasn't forgotten that and they, of course, have the added motivation of being one of just 2 FBS schools (Miami-OH is the other) that are winless on the season. Rice has played a much tougher schedule than UTSA has so far this season and that is a key to evaluating where these teams are really "at" right now. That said, the markets have a false read in my opinion. The line opened up around a pick'em and then went to UTSA -4. The Roadrunners simply aren't worthy of this line move. UT-San Antonio has allowed at least 445 yards per game in three straight games and Rice has won 3 of the 4 all-time meetings between these teams. Even though the Owls stats look very bad, they have played a much tougher schedule than UTSA and they are not only off of a bye, they also have an FCS school on deck so there will be no lookahead here. The Roadrunners have the full attention of the Owls. Rice is on an 8-3 ATS run in their games against teams with a losing record and the Owls are also a perfect 3-0 ATS when off of a bye week. Look for the Roadrunners to drop to 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games. UTSA simply does not travel well and they're going to have their hands full with an angry Owls team off of their bye week. 10* RICE OWLS Saturday evening |
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10-15-16 | North Carolina v. Miami (Fla) -6.5 | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 37 m | Show | |
ACC Beatdown - Rickenbach CFB Game #140 Saturday - 8* Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs North Carolina Tar Heels @ 3:30 ET - Both of these teams are off of a loss but it is the Canes who are the team that is likely to bounce back huge. The limiting factor for the Tar Heels is a weak defense. Yes the numbers from last week look good for the North Carolina defense but that had to do with bad weather due to Hurricane Matthew pounding the area. Prior to that game UNC had given up at least 421 yards in 4 of their first 5 games. To put that in perspective in terms of Saturday's match-up, note that the Hurricanes have allowed an average of only 284 yards per game on the season. Miami (FL) has given up an average of only 12.8 points per game. The home team has covered 9 of the last 12 match-ups between these teams and Miami has revenge from an ugly loss at North Carolina last season. Miami is on a 9-3 run as a home favorite and also a perfect 3-0 ATS run when off of a SU loss. After last week's tight loss to Florida State, the Hurricanes need to respond with a W and the Canes head coach Richt has an incredible 90-45 (67%) ATS mark in SU wins. So if you like the Hurricanes to win here, the odds are you like them to cover as well. I also like the line move here as this line was up near 10 earlier this week and this line has now come down to a -6.5 as of Friday night. Great line value for the home favorite here. 8* MIAMI-FLORIDA Saturday afternoon |
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10-15-16 | Kent State v. Miami (OH) +1.5 | 14-18 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #174 - Miami-Ohio Redhawks (+) vs Kent State Golden Flashes @ 2:30 ET - The Redhawks are one of just two winless FBS schools remaining (Rice is the other) and this is the perfect spot for Miami-Ohio to get into the win column. Yes, they have injury issues at QB but even if Billy Bahl does not play look for them to fare just fine here on Saturday at home against Kent State. Keep in mind, last week it was a tough road start for a freshman QB but should Noah Wezensky get the start again, it will be his third game and he was much better at home two weeks ago then he was last week on the road. Miami-Ohio, statistically, has been just as good as Kent State this season but they Redhawks just don't have a win yet to show for it. The home team has won 5 of the 7 meetings between these teams but here we are getting line value because of the Redhawks 0-6 record on the season. Miami-Ohio is on a 14-9 ATS run as an underdog. Miami-Ohio also is on a 5-1 ATS run in their games against conference foes with a winning percentage of .333 or less and the Golden Flashes come into this game with a 2-4 record on the season. Look for the Redhawks to get revenge for last season's 20-14 loss at Kent State. Miami-Ohio almost rallied for the win in that road game but threw a late pick in the end zone with about a minute to go in the game. The Redhawks net yards per game this season is only -3.3 and they certainly deserve much better than an 0-6 mark on the season. They will take advantage of a Kent State team that has one of the worst offenses in the nation (ranked #122 for yards per game). 8* MIAMI-OHIO Saturday afternoon |
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10-14-16 | Duke v. Louisville OVER 70.5 | 14-24 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash Friday - Rickenbach CFB Game #107/108 - 8* OVER in Louisville Cardinals vs Duke Blue Devils @ 7 ET - The Cardinals are off of their bye week and they lost the week prior at Clemson in a 42-36 thriller. That game brought the over to a perfect 5-0 in Louisville games this season and I see no reason for that trend to change today. Weather conditions are expected to be perfect this evening for both offenses to fully execute. Keep in mind that Duke's low-scoring 13-6 win over Army last week was a game played in poor field/weather conditions due to Hurricane Matthew ravaging North Carolina. Things will return to normal this week for the Blue Devils and they had previously scored 29 points per game and averaged 464 yards of offense in their two prior games. Duke's defense had allowed 452 yards per game their three prior games and they now face arguably the most dangerous QB and offense in the league in the form of Lamar Jackson and the dynamic Cardinals. Before the loss to Clemson, Louisville had scored at least 59 points in each of their first 4 games. The Blue Devils have scored at least 13 points in all 6 of their games this season. Those type of point totals get this one over the total and I expect at least a 56-21 type of game in this one. The over is 6-2 in Louisville games where they are favored by 31 points or more. Last season the Cardinals bowl game (versus Texas A & M) stayed under the total (barely!) but their final 4 games of the regular season had all gone over the total. That means the over in Louisville's regular season games is on a perfect 9-0 run. Considering the situation for the Cardinals here (wanting to impose their will off of a loss and plus rested from a bye week), this one has the makings of a 10th straight over. 8* OVER in Louisville Friday |
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10-13-16 | Broncos v. Chargers +3 | 13-21 | Win | 111 | 59 h 28 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher Thursday - Rickenbach NFL Game #104 - 8* San Diego Chargers (+) vs Denver Broncos @ 8:25 ET - Many are likely to be looking at the Broncos here off of a home loss. However, I correctly faded Denver with the Falcons last week and I am going to do it again with the Chargers this week. Broncos rookie QB Paxton Lynch proved that it may be awhile before he's ready to step in as a solid NFL starter. That means the return of QB Trevor Siemian this week even though his non-throwing shoulder could still be an impact for him. Also, keep in mind, these teams are nearly even statistically so far this season. Even though the Chargers are only 1-4 on the season, they lost their first game of the season in overtime and they come into this game on a 3-game losing streak where the 3 defeats have come by a total of just 8 points. The point is that San Diego has been in every game. Though the Broncos D allows an average of 74 yards per game less than the Chargers, the San Diego offense is averaging 47 yards per game more than Denver's O. That said, considering we have home field here and we have a veteran QB in Philip Rivers going against an injured rookie in Siemian, I like my chances for the upset here. The Chargers are on a 7-2 ATS run when off of a SU loss against a division rival. Though they got the cover last week they did lose the game by 3 points at Oakland last week. The Broncos have a history of underestimating foes and with all of their past success against the Chargers (5 straight wins dating back to 2013 post-season), they could get caught underestimating just how dangerous this 1-4 San Diego team is. Denver is on a long-term 56-77 ATS run in their games against teams with a losing record. The Broncos offensive line was shaky last week and the defense was exposed by the high-powered attack of Atlanta. Trust me, the Chargers were paying attention to both of those areas and can take advantage at home on Thursday night. 8* SAN DIEGO CHARGERS |
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10-12-16 | Appalachian State -9.5 v. UL-Lafayette | 24-0 | Win | 100 | 36 h 49 m | Show | |
ESPN2 Smash Pass Wednesday - Rickenbach CFB Game #101 - 8* Appalachian State Mountaineers (-) @ UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns @ 8 ET - This line opened up at a 10.5 and got bumped up to a 12 in the early activity on Sunday evening and then has since dropped to a 9.5 as of early Tuesday morning. The original line and movement was correct in my opinion. The Mountaineers should blast the Ragin' Cajuns. UL Lafayette has major issues. They're not getting consistent QB play and they brought in a number of junior college transfers in the off-season (hasn't worked out well) and then fired their defensive coordinator after the first game of the season. The fact is that this is a program in disarray as head coach Mark Hudspeth doesn't have a good handle on his own team and his own coaching staff. They will be no match for what is arguably the top team in the Sun Belt Conference as they try to trade blows with Appalachian State on Wednesday night. The Mountaineers are an experienced team and a physical team that can bully a team like UL Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns fell to 4-8 last year and it just seems that Hudspeth and company have lost control of this program and they are going to continue heading the wrong direction. On the other side you have a Mountaineers team that went from 4 wins to 7 wins to 11 wins the past three seasons! Even though Appalachian State is only 3-2 this season, that is because they played SEC foe Tennessee and ACC foe Miami in non-conference action. Those are big programs for a Sun Belt team to face but Mountaineers head coach Scott Satterfield is building the program at Appalachian State and he knows that facing teams like that is all part of the equation. In their conference opener, the Mountaineers dominated Georgia State and held them to 241 total yards of offense while forcing 4 turnovers. Appalachian State has defeated the Ragin' Cajuns by at least 19 points in each of their two meetings the past two seasons and I feel the point spread here is indeed at least a touchdown less than it should be. The Mountaineers have not turned the ball over more than once in a game this season. UL Lafayette has 8 turnovers in their last 3 games. The Ragin' Cajuns also have gone 1-4 ATS as home dogs when they are facing a team who is off of a straight-up win by a double digit margin. The Mountaineers beat Georgia State by 14 earlier this month and they can blast UL Lafayette by more than that here. As a home dog of 7.5 to 10 points the Ragin' Cajuns have gone 0-2 ATS. As road favorite, Appalachian State has gone 5-2 ATS and this is their first ever Wednesday game and the Mountaineers will go "all out" as they know they are in the spotlight with a rare weeknight game on ESPN2 where it is the only football game on TV (unlike typical Thursdays and Fridays). 8* APPALACHIAN STATE |
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10-10-16 | Bucs +6 v. Panthers | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #475 - 8* Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+) @ Carolina Panthers @ 8:30 ET Monday - Both teams have some injury issues but the Panthers being without QB Cam Newton certainly is the biggest of them all. He has been ruled out for this Monday night match-up and, with both teams having struggled early this season, I see great line value here with the points. The line moved to a solid 6 Sunday evening and that means it is "go time" for me here on Monday morning. Note that Carolina is on a long-term 21-32 ATS run as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Also, Tampa Bay is 17-6 ATS in road games where the posted total is between 45.5 and 49 points. The biggest trend here is that the Buccaneers are a PERFECT 10-0 ATS when they are a dog of more than 4 points off of a game where they were held to less than 10 points. With Tampa Bay off of the ugly 27-7 loss to Denver last week and now coming in as a 6 point dog on Monday Night Football, look for the Buccaneers to come up huge in a chance to make amends in a divisional game in the spotlight of MNF. Tampa Bay is looking for revenge here as they have lost both match-ups with Carolina each of the past three seasons (0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS). Look for a big game from RB Jacquizz Rodgers who also was a solid receiving target for the Falcons from 2012 to 2014. He'll be filling in to injuries to the Bucs RB corps and he's fully capable of a big game here. The Panthers defense got lit up by Atlanta last week and I know TB is certainly no ATL when it comes to production on offense but QB Jameis Winston is certainly capable of putting up big numbers and he simply needs to avoid turnovers. By the way, the Panthers have forced just 1 turnover the past 2 weeks combined. The Bucs could pull off the upset here but certainly there is value with the sizable points. Look for that stat I mentioned above to move to a perfect 11-0 ATS. 8* TAMPA BAY Monday night |
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10-09-16 | Giants v. Packers -7 | 16-23 | Push | 0 | 20 h 46 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #474 - 8* Green Bay Packers (-) vs New York Giants @ 8:30 ET Sunday - Superb scheduling advantage here for the Packers as they are off of their bye week and now host a Giants teams traveling for a second straight week and also playing on short rest as the G-men were at Minnesota on Monday night. The Giants have failed to cover any of their last three games as they head to Lambeau Field to take on a Green Bay team that is 9-1 ATS when off of a bye. The Packers are also on a 6-0, 100% PERFECT ATS run when they are a home favorite against an NFC East foe. Green Bay certainly won't overlook the Giants as New York has defeated Green Bay in each of the last three meetings including one in the post-season here in Green Bay 5 years ago. The Giants have failed to cover 4 straight times when they are a road dog in the 2nd of back to back games away from home. After getting drilled at Minnesota Monday night look for a similar result Sunday night. Don't be surprised if turnovers play a role again tonight as the Giants have turned the ball over 8 times in their last 3 games while the Packers have not turned the ball over a single time in 2 of their 3 games this season. The Giants are very banged up in the secondary and the Packers and QB Aaron Rodgers will take advantage. The Packers are allowing only 42.7 rushing yards per game so the Giants will have to beat them through the air but Eli Manning has struggled in his last 2 games including throwing 3 interceptions. 8* GREEN BAY Sunday night |
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10-09-16 | Bengals -1.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #471 - 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bengals (-) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET Sunday - The Bengals have the rest edge here as they had a Thursday game last week. By the way, Cincy dominated the Dolphins in that game and the fact is that the Cowboys simply have not faced a team as strong as the Bengals yet this season. Cincinnati has been a playoff team for five straight seasons. The Cowboys have faced a floundering 49'ers team, the Giants and Redskins (both struggling in recent season as part of the NFC "Least" Division, and a Bears team that hasn't had a winning season since 2012. Dallas finally gets tested here and the Bengals defense will have its ears pinned back as they want to test Dak Prescott early and often in this one. The young QB has performed well so far this season but he hasn't faced much pressure and the Bengals are known for having a fierce defense that can "bring the heat". Cincy entered this season with a 7-0 ATS mark in their games against teams with a winning percentage of .600 or greater. Coach Marvin Lewis has a reputation for having his Bengals at their best for games like this and they would love nothing more than to knock off "America's team" at "Jerry's World" Sunday afternoon in Dallas. The Cowboys have been a great "story" early this season but the Bengals are the "proven" team in a big game setting like this one. Dallas is on a 5-13 ATS run in home games while the Bengals are on a 12-6 ATS run in road games and a 17-6 ATS run against NFC East opponents. 10* CINCINNATI in late afternoon Sunday action |
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10-09-16 | Falcons +4.5 v. Broncos | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 17 h 43 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #465 - 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons +4.5 @ Denver Broncos @ 4:05 ET Sunday - Paxton Lynch was pressed into duty at QB for the Broncos last week at Tampa Bay and he performed well. However, the Buccaneers are now 13-39 in their last 52 games and Lynch, likely to start here, is going to face a much tougher test against the Falcons. Atlanta is not a strong club defensively but they are a powerhouse on offense and Matt Ryan and Company should "get theirs" against the Broncos in this one. That will put pressure on the rookie Lynch to come up with a big game here and that is going to be tough in this spot. Ryan threw for over 500 yards last week and 300 of that went to WR Julio Jones who continues to be a beast for the Falcons. The Broncos rock solid defense now meets the offense currently ranked #1 in the league and considering the key injury for Denver at the QB position with Trevor Siemian likely to miss, I would not be surprised to see an outright upset here but certainly there is value in the points. Atlanta is 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season and all 3 wins were outright upsets! The Falcons are 13-6 ATS as an underdog the past three seasons combined. The Broncos are known for playing well at Mile High but they have covered only 3 of the last 9 times they are a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. 10* ATLANTA in late afternoon action Sunday |
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10-09-16 | Georgia -6.5 v. South Carolina | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
SEC Bulldog Insider - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Game #419 - 8* Georgia Bulldogs (-) @ South Carolina Gamecocks @ 2:30 ET Sunday - I have had a lot of success with the Bulldogs through the years and know the program quite well. Though Georgia is off of a heartbreaking last-second "hail mary" defeat versus Tennessee last week, they are ready to respond. Remember we saw similar circumstances earlier this season when Oklahoma State was off of a devastating defeat to Central Michigan on a "hail mary" play that shouldn't have even been able to happen - no time left and officials made a mistake. The Cowboys responded the next week by defeating Pittsburgh. Even though that win ended up coming by only a TD Okie State had multiple big leads throughout that game and definitely came ready to play. This is the type of effort I expect from Georgia today who has had extra time (with this game being rescheduled to Sunday) to be fully prepared mentally as they look to erase the bitter taste of last week's tough defeat. Georgia is now off of back to back losses and they are 18-2 SU (and 15-5 ATS) the last 20 times they entered a game off of two or more consecutive defeats. South Carolina is getting a few guys back this week that could help the offense but their overall production is just not there. They are still short of playmakers on offense and have produced some of the worst production on offense in the nation so far this year. Georgia is averaging more than 100 yards more per game on offense than are the Gamecocks. Also, South Carolina got drilled by the Bulldogs 52-20 last year and, after having just 1 carry last week, Georgia RB Nick Chubb is listed as probable for this game and I expect him to do plenty of damage here against a South Carolina defense that is allowing more than 200 rushing yards per game. As a fave of 3.5 to 10 points, the Bulldogs have gone 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS. Both teams are in "must win" mode but the road team is the much stronger and more balanced team. Also, Gamecocks head coach Will Muschamp went 1-3 against Georgia (his alma mater) when he was head coach of the Gators. Once against the Bulldogs get the best of Muschamp here. 8* GEORGIA early Sunday afternoon |
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10-09-16 | Texans +7 v. Vikings | 13-31 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #451 - 8* Houston Texans +7 @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET Sunday - The Vikings are not only undefeated this season, they are also 4-0 ATS. While a lot of credit certainly goes to the ultra-formidable defense of Minnesota, the fact is that the ball has certainly bounced the way of the Vikings early and often this season. The Vikes are +10 in turnover margin and that has had a lot to do with their success at the betting window early this season. I feel they are now starting to get a little too pricey as this line has moved up to a 7 and there is value with a Texans team whose offense (334.5 yards per game) is actually out-gaining the Vikings who are averaging only 290.5 yards per game this season. Also, very quietly, the Texans defense continues to do well and their strong performance last week came without J.J. Watt so that was a big plus for Houston. The Texans are allowing an average of only 287.8 yards per game this season while the Vikings are allowing an average of 306 yards per game. The Vikings D gets all the publicity but, as you can see, this Texans defense has been flying all over the field too! Houston has won the turnover battle in only one of their four games this season and that has been the big difference between these two teams. The result is solid line value for a 3-1 Texans team as everyone remembers their ugly loss to New England but the yardage was actually equal in that game and that type of result is adding even more line value to a spot like this. By the way, the Texans are on a 10-3 ATS run. Also, the Vikings are on a 3-10 ATS run when they are off of an ATS win by double digits and are now facing an opponent who is playing with revenge. The Texans did lose the last time they faced Minny and the Vikes are off of a huge cover in their win over the Giants which, by the way, came on Monday night so this is a short week for the Vikings to get ready for a tough Texans team. I am grabbing the generous points. 8* HOUSTON early Sunday afternoon |
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10-09-16 | Eagles -3.5 v. Lions | 23-24 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #461 - 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Detroit Lions @ 1 ET Sunday - The Eagles, with their win over the Steelers two weeks ago, proved the naysayers wrong. This Philadelphia team is for real and now, the best possible thing that could happen is that the Eagles got a much-needed bye before their heads got too big because of knocking off Pittsburgh. In all seriousness, that bye week did some good for the Eagles as otherwise they might have come out "flat as a pancake" after such a huge win like they had over a top notch team like Pittsburgh. Philly ranks as one of the top teams in the league on both sides of the ball so far this season while the Lions continue to under-perform and are off of a disappointing loss to the Bears last week. Detroit has lost three straight games both SU and ATS. The Eagles come into this game a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS and with the added benefit of coming off of a bye week. That said, I'll gladly lay the small number with the Eagles here as there is line value with Philly on the road. The Lions have only covered ONCE the last NINE times they have been a home dog. Also, the Eagles are 5-0 ATS when they have extra rest and are facing an opponent with a winning percentage of .600 or less. The Lions blew out the Eagles 45-14 last season and Detroit is 1-10 ATS as a dog of 10 points or less when they are facing an opponent who is playing with revenge. The Wentz show continues and also keep in mind that Jim Schwartz is the Eagles defensive coordinator and he is a former head coach of the Lions. The year after he was fired from the Lions he because defensive coordinator in Buffalo and helped lead the Bills to a 4-0 record against NFC North teams that season as he knew them well from his years in Detroit. He certainly knows the Lions well and that will pay off once again here. The Eagles have this game covered well on both sides of the ball with Wentz leading the way on O and Schwartz leading the way on D. Road rout! 8* PHILADELPHIA in early action Sunday |
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10-08-16 | Texas Tech +9.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 38-44 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #339 -10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) @ Kansas State Wildcats @ 7 ET Saturday - Red Raiders QB Patrick Mahomes is unlikely to play and that's why this line is where it is because, the fact is, the Red Raiders are the better team in this match-up. The key then becomes what happens when the back-up QB comes in for Texas Tech? Though it was "only" Kansas last week, junior QB transfer (from Iowa) Nic Shimonek came in and ran the offense very well and threw 4 TD passes. Shimonek is known as one of the hardest working players on the team and he has been learning Kliff Kingsbury's offense ever since he came over from the Hawkeyes. Shimonek has good size at 6'3 220 lbs and he made good throws and quick reads. He also is full of confidence and has worked very hard to be ready for when he's needed. With many of the quick, shorter passes that are a part of the Red Raiders offense, it is not as difficult to "step in" as a back-up QB and get the job done although Shimonek certainly has the arm and the accuracy for the longer routes as well. Shimonek already got some solid work in back in week one of this season and last week's experience versus the Jayhawks also helps him to prepared for taking on Kansas State here. The Wildcats are only averaging 346 5 yards per game this season and this is nothing new as they averaged only 333.7 yards per game to rank as one of the worst offenses in the nation. While I do respect their defense, Kansas State was ripped apart for 59 points by the Texas Tech offense last season and they also were heading into that game off of a loss as well. That said, the fact that the Wildcats are off of a tough tight loss at West Virginia doesn't truly strengthen their position here. In fact, when Kansas State is home off of a straight-up loss and facing an opponent off of a win by a double digit margin, the Wildcats have gone 0-4 ATS. Also, Texas Tech is on a 4-2 ATS run as a road dog and their offense (both based on yardage and points per game) is #1 in the nation in both key categories. The Wildcats just don't have the firepower to keep up here and their defense was exposed last season frequently by teams with high-powered offenses. The Cats allowed 36.9 points per game in their final 11 games last season. That is significant in looking at this match-up because Kansas State never scored more than 45 points in a game last season. This season the Wildcats put up big points on poor teams like Florida Atlantic and Missouri State but they averaged only 14.5 points in their other two games. The Wilcats were outgained by a margin of 422 to 286 last week at West Virginia and the numbers are likely to be even more skewed this week. That has me backing the big dog here that absolutely has a great shot at an outright upset win on the road. The Red Raiders are averaging 664 yards of offense per game this season and though their defense is always a liability, they have some confidence with last week's strong performance and, again, the Wildcats just don't have the offense to take advantage. In their two games that weren't against "cupcake opponents" Kansas State has only completed 29 of 71 passes this season! 10* Top Play TEXAS TECH Saturday |
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10-08-16 | Purdue +10.5 v. Illinois | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show | |
Ugly Dog - Rickenbach CFB Game #345 - 8* Purdue Boilermakers (+) @ Illinois Illini @ 3:30 ET Saturday - Taking advantage of line value here as Illinois opened up right around a 7 point favorite and then has moved up to being a double digit favorite. I just don't see it with the Illini. Sure Purdue is really no better but that is what you have here. Two bad Big Ten teams matched up so the only difference one could really see as value would be home field but that hasn't held true in this series. The road team has actually gotten the win in each of the last four meetings. Couple that with the fact that the Boilermakers have revenge from a bad home loss to Illinois last year and you have the makings of a truly dangerous "ugly dog" here. Purdue has plenty of motivation and is also coming off of an ugly loss at Maryland. Conversely, the Illini are coming off of a more respectable showing than many expected at Nebraska last week as they only lost by 15 points. However, Illinois was dominated statistically as they were outgained by over 150 yards in the game and the Cornhuskers had more than double the first downs that Illinois compiled. The Illini are on a long-term 15-24 ATS run as a home favorite while the Boilermakers are on an 11-6 ATS run as a road dog. Illinois is an ugly 2-13 ATS when they are off of back to back SU losses and facing a team that is coming off of a SU loss by double digits! That is precisely the case here with the Boilermakers off of that 50-7 loss to the Terrapins last week. Even with the loss last week Purdue is still on an 8-1 ATS run their last 9 games as a double digit dog. Grab the big points with the road dog Boilermakers here. 8* PURDUE Saturday afternoon |
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10-08-16 | Bowling Green v. Ohio OVER 61 | 24-30 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 45 m | Show | |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #351/352 -8* OVER in Ohio University Bobcats vs Bowling Green Falcons @ 2 ET Saturday - The Bobcats have stayed under the total in 4 straight games and the Falcons have stayed under the total in 3 of their last 4 games. That has helped to give some line value with this week's total because the fact is that both of these teams are not opposed to playing fast-paced football. In fact, in terms of offensive plays per game, Ohio University and Bowling Green both rank in the top 15 in the league in terms of pace with 83 and 81 plays per game respectively. The Bobcats are off a big rivalry win over Miami-Ohio last week and that could leave the defense a little "spent" this week. Keep in mind, Ohio U had allowed an average of 31.5 points per game before last week's big win. As for the Falcons, they have allowed an average of 49.8 points per game on the season! With 540.8 yards allowed per game, the Bowling Green defense is arguably the worst in the nation. On the other side of the ball, with Falcons QB James Morgan now making his 2nd start, look for even better results this week. Last week he was a respectable 23 of 46 for 250 yards. Ohio U has revenge on their minds here and should be able to get it against the porous D of the Falcons but, keep in mind, the Bobcats have allowed Bowling Green an average of 46.5 points per game in their last two meetings. The over is 9-5 the last 14 times the Falcons have been an underdog. The over is 11-6 when the Bobcats are a favorite in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. Look for a fast-paced wild one in this MAC match-up. 8* OVER in Ohio University Saturday |
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10-08-16 | Cincinnati v. Connecticut +3 | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #332 - 8* Connecticut Huskies (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 11:30 AM ET Saturday - Depending on when and where they were played, the Huskies have delivered as bad as an ugly 0-5 ATS mark this season for their backers. This is helping to give us solid line value here with Connecticut as a 3-point home dog. The Huskies want this game badly as, not since the days of Randy Edsall roaming the sidelines have the Huskies managed to knock off Cincinnati. Each of the last five years UConn has lost to the Bearcats and, after facing the new fast-paced attack of Syracuse and then the powerhouse attack of offensive juggernaut, Houston, the Huskies will be glad to face an offense that is struggling. Cincy can't settle down at the QB position as regular #1 Hayden Moore has been out with an injury and the Bearcats have now waffled between a young QB (Trail) and a veteran QB (Gunner Kiel) who was outplayed by Hayden Moore. The result has been very inconsistent offense from the Bearcats and, in fact, they are now on a 2-7 ATS run dating back to last season. Also, the home team in the match-ups between these two teams is 8-3 ATS even though Cincy has gotten the SU win in five straight match-ups. The Huskies have thrived as a home dog (22-9 ATS) and in their most recent conference home game they upset Houston - the Cougars only loss last season! The Huskies have a rest edge with two extra days off since they last played on Thursday. The Bearcats are on a 2-4 ATS run when they are off of a loss in conference action. As a home dog of 3 points or less the Huskies are on a 7-3 ATS run and this has the makings of an upset as Cincinnati's poor play at the QB position continues to plague them. 8* CONNECTICUT very early Saturday |
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10-07-16 | Clemson v. Boston College +17.5 | 56-10 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #312 - 8* Boston College Eagles (+) vs Clemson Tigers @ 7:30 ET Friday - Clemson is one of the top teams in the country and I have all the respect in the world for this team. That said, the fact is that the Tigers are in a very tough spot here and I like the line value we are seeing in this one. This line opened up around a 16 but is now as high as an 18 as of gameday morning and Clemson is known for having some struggles at times when they visit Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts. The Tigers are off of a key victory in their huge game with Louisville last week but it didn't come easy. Not only did Clemson get outgained by the Cardinals but, also the Tigers had to rally for the win after they gave up a 26-0 run to Louisville after halftime. That game was an emotional come from behind win for Clemson in a marquee game Saturday and now the Tigers are on the road on a short week. In the last 7 meetings between these teams the road team has gotten the cash only 2 times. Clemson has won 3 of their last 5 trips to Chestnut Hill but 2 of the 3 wins came by 6 points or less. Overall, the Tigers are on an ugly 3-7 ATS run as a road favorite. As for Boston College, they come into this game off of a much easier contest compared to the exhausting battle Clemson just had with Louisville. The Eagles just knocked off Buffalo by a 35-3 count with a ridiculous yardage edge of 400 to 67 over the Bulls. Boston College has a bye week on deck which is also a big edge as Clemson is truly in a sandwich spot after the big win over the Cardinals and with NC State on deck for next Saturday's homecoming game. Once again this season the Eagles have a rock solid defense and the offense is improving as 6'5" QB Patrick Towles (a graduate transfer from Kentucky) has gotten more comfortable with the Eagles. Clemson is on an 1-4 ATS run in games played on turf. BC is on a 3-0 ATS run as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. Look for the Eagles to give the Tigers a tough battle in this one as the situational edges are big for the home team here. 8* BOSTON COLLEGE Friday |
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10-06-16 | Cardinals -3 v. 49ers | 33-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #303 - 8* Arizona Cardinals (-) @ San Francisco 49'ers @ 8:25 PM ET Thursday - Both teams are off to tough starts at 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS. For the 49'ers this is not such a big surprise but for the Cardinals it certainly is. Arizona should respond in a big way this week even without Carson Palmer at QB as Drew Stanton is expected to get the start. What has killed the Cards the past two weeks is turnovers as they had 5 in each game. This is skewing their results in terms of marketplace perception and now we can take the far superior team here -3 after they were as high as a 4.5 point favorite earlier in the week. The fact is that Arizona, on a yardage basis, actually ranks in the top ten this season both on offense and defense while the 49'ers are near the bottom of the league in both categories. Since beating the Rams in week one, the Niners have been statistically dominated in every single game. They were outgained by 227 yards in week two, 164 yards in week three, and 133 in week four. Now San Francisco is facing a Cardinals team that has beaten them by at least 6 points in 3 of the last 4 meetings. Also, Arizona is on an 8-4 ATS run as an away favorite. First downs are 104-65 in favor of the Cards in the last 4 meetings between these teams. The Cardinals are on a 6-1 ATS run when they are off of an ATS loss by a double digit margin and are then favored against an NFC foe. The Niners are on a 1-5 ATS run in Thursday games. 8* ARIZONA |
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10-06-16 | Temple v. Memphis OVER 59 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #305/306 - 8* OVER in Memphis Tigers vs Temple Owls @ 8 PM ET Thursday - A total that was a high as a 61.5 has dropped down to a 59 and there is great line value with the over in this match-up. Memphis shows well in the pass defense rankings on the season but they got torched by Ole Miss last week. Also, the Tigers ranked 106th in the nation for pass defense last year. Even though Temple hasn't been an offensive juggernaut with the aerial attack this season, what is concerning for Memphis here is that they are banged up in the secondary with two senior starters questionable and the Tigers are already without a senior starting defensive end for tonight's match-up. Speaking of seniors, the Owls only lost 5 seniors from 2014 to 2015 but then lost 19 seniors from 2015 to 2016. This has effected the leadership of this team and this has been particularly evident on the defensive side of the bowl. The Temple D just isn't what it use to be. The Owls didn't give up much in their most recent game but that was against SMU. The Mustangs are one of the worst teams in the nation. In fact, a very weak schedule has helped the Owls to not yet be exposed for the holes they have on the defensive side of the ball but Temple did allow over 400 yards to both Charlotte and Penn State - the Nittany Lions being the only tough opponent the Owls have faced all season. The Tigers should march all over this defense. The Memphis offense was done in by turnovers against the Rebels in their most recent game but the Tigers previously scored an average of 52 points per game in their first three games this season. Riley Ferguson has been solid at QB (other than turnovers last week) and he is surrounded by playmakers. Even though the Owls schedule has been rather soft they have some confidence on offense thanks to wins in 3 of their last 4 games and averaging nearly 40 points per game in those contests. The over has gone 3-0 in Temple's last two games and 2-0 in the Tigers last two games. When playing with 6 days of rest or less, the over is 12-6 in Memphis games including 2-0 this season. The over is also 5-1 long-term in Tigers Thursday games. In road games with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points, the over is a long-term 4-2 in Owls games. Temple is also 3-0 to the over this season in games with 6 days of rest or less. With the Tigers losing last year to the Owls and also having lost the last time they hosted Temple, in 2013, they won't hesitate to keep their foot on the gas in this one and that will push the pace throughout this contest. 8* OVER in Memphis |
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10-05-16 | Georgia Southern v. Arkansas State +7.5 | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 57 h 24 m | Show | |
ESPN2 Smash - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #302 - 8* Arkansas State Red Wolves (+) vs Georgia Southern Eagles @ 8 PM ET Wednesday - On the surface this looks like a complete mismatch as the Eagles are 3-1 on the season while the Red Wolves are 0-4 both SU and ATS. However, Arkansas State has played a much tougher schedule than the Eagles have. Also, this is the Red Wolves conference opener so they are fully aware of the fact that the season is certainly not lost! As for Georgia Southern, even though they are 2-0 in Sun Belt action already, those two victories came over two of the weaker teams in the conference as the Eagles beat South Alabama and Louisiana Monroe who were a combined 7-18 last year. Arkansas State is certainly off to an ugly start this season but they also got off to a poor start last year, 1-3, and then won 8 in a row to wrap up the regular season! The Red Wolves were projected to again be one of the top teams in the Sun Belt Conference and their comeback, in my opinion, starts Wednesday. The line opened up at a -7 for Georgia Southern here and has already moved to a 7.5 in most spots. With the ability to get Arkansas State as a home dog of more than a TD, it definitely is "go time" for me in this match-up. I am well aware of the fact that the Red Wolves just lost to an FCS school, Central Arkansas, in their most recent game but the Bears are actually playing quite well this season and are one of the better teams in their conference. Arkansas State did put up 469 yards against Central Arkansas but they did themselves in with turnovers. The Red Wolves will respond this week and they are 13-3 SU (and 11-5 ATS) in their conference games the past two seasons. The past two seasons Arkansas State has also gone 5-2 SU and ATS in their 7 games against teams with a winning record. The Red Wolves are off of a bye week and they are 8-1 ATS when playing with rest and facing a Sun Belt foe. 8* ARKANSAS STATE Wednesday |
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10-03-16 | Giants +4 v. Vikings | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Top MNF Crusher - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ Minnesota @ 8:30 ET Monday - With Sunday's action in the books the Vikings are one of only three undefeated teams in the league. In my opinion this still has the Vikes as being a little over-rated. Minnesota lost QB Teddy Bridgewater to injury late in the pre-season and now lost RB Adrian Peterson to a knee injury. Minnesota has been winning with defense and I am well aware of the fact that this team has a great defense and certainly I respect that. However, this is still a team whose offense has been impacted by these injuries and I am not sold on Sam Bradford at QB. Overall, the Vikings offense is averaging only 265.3 yards per game so far this season and that ranks them near the bottom of the league. Conversely, the Giants offense has rolled up 396.7 yards of offense per game so far this year and that ranks them near the top 5 teams in the league. Every single game the Giants have played this season has been close with an average margin of 2 points per game. The Vikings have one win by just a field goal but the other two wins came by more than a TD margin. However, Minnesota was actually outgained in both of those "big" wins! The Vikings defense has been getting the job done by generating turnovers and this is masking a sub-par offense. With the Giants off of a loss where they turned the ball over 3 times for a 2nd straight game, I am fully confident New York will be fired up and ready to play a "complete game" on MNF and avoid the turnover bug. The Vikings, while deserving credit for a solid defense that is pressuring QB's and forcing turnovers, have been fortunate early this season while the Giants certainly have not been so fortunate. That is what is helping to create the line value here. New York blew a 21-9 lead against Washington last week and I look for Eli Manning and Company to respond this week. The Giants are 7-1 ATS when off of a game against the Redskins. Also, they know QB Bradford very well from his days with the division rival Eagles. As for the Vikings, they are on an 0-7 ATS run on Monday Night Football and also 0-5 ATS when off of a straight-up win as an underdog and facing a team that has a winning record. Minnesota is also 0-4 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 10 points or less against a non-division opponent. Last, but certainly not least, the Vikings are 2-10 ATS when they are off of a game where they covered the spread by double digits and are now facing a team with revenge. The Giants lost badly at Minnesota late last season and it is time for a little payback. Those angles above add up to a 33-3 ATS mark in favor of the road dog in this one! I am grabbing the points here! 10* NEW YORK GIANTS Monday Night. |
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10-02-16 | Chiefs v. Steelers -3.5 | 14-43 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #276 - 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:30 ET Sunday - The Chiefs are off of a dominating 24-3 win over the Jets where New York QB Ryan Fitzpatrick basically handed them the game. All kidding aside, the Jets had 8 turnovers in that game. As for the Steelers, they are off of their embarrassing 34-3 loss at Philadelphia. If you look at last Sunday's scores only one team was a held to single digits in points (Pittsburgh) and only one team allowed a team only single digits in points (Kansas City). Ironically these teams meet in the next week and that has set exceptional line value for the Steelers here. Earlier in the week they were a 6 point favorite and now they are all the way down to a 3.5 as of Saturday night. I realize both these teams are 2-1 on the season but, in my mind, only one of them is a true Super Bowl contender and that is Pittsburgh. That said, the Steelers are looking to avenge a 10 point loss at Kansas City last year and they went 8-3 ATS the past two seasons in their games against teams with a winning record. As for the Chiefs, they are an ugly 2-4 ATS in their last 6 as a road dog between 3.5 and 7.5 points. Also, the Steelers are on an incredible long term run of 55-33 ATS in the month of October and they are hungry to respond off of last week's embarrassment. Pittsburgh is an incredible 10-0 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 28 points or more. The Chiefs are 1-6 ATS as dogs when they are off of a game where they allowed 7 points or less. Kansas City is also 0-4 ATS as dogs when facing teams from the AFC North. Look for this one to be all Steelers! 8* PITTSBURGH Sunday evening |
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10-02-16 | Rams v. Cardinals -7.5 | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 9 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL Game #274 - 8* Arizona Cardinals (-) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET Sunday - This line keeps dropping as it is inching closer to a -7 after opening up near a -10. Of course I understand the downward line move because of perception. Everyone saw the Cardinals lay an egg against New England in the season opener and then everyone is looking at their result from last week where Arizona lost 33 to 18 at Buffalo. However, the Cards turned the ball over 5 times in that game and that was the key difference as Arizona actually outgained the Bills 260 to 88 through the air in that game. The Cardinals are a solid team that is much better than the 1-2 record they've got right now. As for the Rams, they won 37 to 32 at Tampa Bay last week but the Buccaneers outgained LA by a 472 to 320 mark and Los Angeles is fortunate to have a 2-1 record on the season. The Cardinals blasted Tampa Bay in week two and they're capable of doing the same to the Rams here in Week 4 as they are again off of a loss and fired up. The Rams have one of the worst offenses in the league as the big points last week was because of turnovers. Los Angeles doesn't have the firepower to keep up here. The Rams are 0-5 ATS when they are on the road and facing a divisional foe who is off of a SU loss as fave. That is precisely the case here with the Cards off of that loss to the Bills. Keep in mind, Arizona got embarrassed last week and they are 6-0 ATS when they are favored against an NFC foe and they are coming off of an ATS loss by double digits to the spread. 8* ARIZONA in late afternoon action Sunday |
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10-02-16 | Broncos v. Bucs +3 | Top | 27-7 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
Rickenbach NFL Game #268 - 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+) vs Denver Broncos @ 4:05 ET Sunday - The Buccaneers are off of a tough home loss to the Rams last week as they outgained Los Angeles by over 150 yards in the game but came up on the wrong end of the scoreboard in the 37-32 final. The Broncos were at the other end of the spectrum as they as they barely outgained the Bengals at Cincinnati but yet won the game by a 29-17 final. Of course this wasn't the first time this season that the Broncos have been quite fortunate as they very nearly lost their season opener to Carolina and that game was at Denver. The Broncos have had to rally for their backers in each of their three games this season. While I certainly respect the Denver defense this is a team that honestly could just as easily be 0-3 ATS as they are 3-0 ATS as they were down in the 3rd or 4th quarter of each of their games. Statistically Denver's offense has been much worse than the points per game average you are seeing for them as a team and, also, the Bucs defense has been much better than their points per game average allowed as a team. Last week's "crazy game" against the Rams was a perfect example as they only gave up 320 yards in that game but 37 points! Denver has only covered 4 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. The Bucs have covered 6 of their last 7 games against a non-conference opponent off of a SU and ATS win. That system fits perfectly here and I look for the Bucs to spring the upset. 10* TAMPA BAY in the late afternoon games Sunday |
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10-02-16 | Seahawks -1.5 v. Jets | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
Rickenbach NFL Game #257 - 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks (-) @ New York Jets @ 1 ET Sunday - The Seahawks have gone from being a 3 point favorite in this game to all the way down to a pick'em. The value here is simply too good to pass up on. Seattle has a bye on deck so there is no lookahead for them and, keep in mind, this is still a team that is very hungry because, after winning the Super Bowl three years ago, they then lost the Super Bowl the next season and then last season they were knocked out of the playoffs by Carolina in the divisional round. The last thing the Hawks want to do is go into the bye week with a 2-2 record. The way I see it they already had their "oops" game for the first part of the season when their offense failed to show up at Los Angeles and the Rams beat them in a tight, low-scoring game. As for the defense, they are again performing like one of the elite units in the entire league. That spells bad news for a shaky Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Jets QB threw 6 picks last week and there is no doubt the Seahawks defense is licking their chops and they are going to "bring it" on Sunday! What is also significant about this line dropping to a pick'em is the fact that Seattle is 6-2 ATS (and a PERFECT 8-0 SU) when they enter a game off of a divisional win. The Seahawks will build off of last week's dominating win over the 49'ers. The Jets are on a 1-4 ATS run in games against NFC opponents and they don't fare well in games projected to be tight. New York is an ugly 4-9 ATS in games with a line between +3 and -3. I'll take Russell Wilson over Ryan Fitzpatrick any day of the week and I also know that I have the better defense in this one. 10* Seattle Seahawks in early afternoon action Sunday |
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10-02-16 | Colts v. Jaguars OVER 49 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL Game #251/252 - 8* OVER in Jacksonville vs Indianapolis @ Wembley Stadium in London @ 9:30 *AM* ET - This is the fourth straight year the Jaguars are playing in London and each of the 3 prior games went over the total. Jacksonville scored 34 in last year's game here and they have allowed an average of 34.7 points per game in their three trips here. Their defense is likely in for another tough match-up this time around too as star QB Andrew Luck and the Colts are a tough draw for any defense. The Colts have one of the top passing attacks in the league. The problem for Indianapolis is their defense and this is especially true away from home. The Colts have given up an average of 31.7 points per game in their last 10 road games dating back to the playoff loss at New England that ended their 2014 seasons. The porous defense of Indy helps lead this one into a shootout because I don't foresee the Jags being able to stop a dynamic Colts offense with Luck and Company. Once again another wild game in London involving the Jaguars. The over is 10-4 in the Colts last 14 games played on grass and also 8-4 in the Jaguars last 12 games where the line on the game is between -3 and +3. 8* OVER in the London game EARLY Sunday morning |
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10-01-16 | Arizona State v. USC -10 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show | |
Best Bet Shocker - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #196 - 8* USC Trojans (-) vs Arizona State @ 8:30 ET Saturday - You may be surprised to see me calling a fave a shocker but what I mean by this here is that USC is only 1-3 on the season and Arizona State is 4-0 but the "shock value" is here. The surprise is not just that the 1-3 Trojans are favored by double digits over the Sun Devils but the fact that they should easily cover it! USC has played a much tougher schedule by far as Arizona State's schedule has included Northern Arizona and UTSA! The Sun Devils barely got by the Roadrunners as the 4 point win was certainly not impressive. In Arizona State's other two games against FBS foes their defense was ripped for over 600 yards in each game and they allowed an average of 48 points per game! USC is off of a tough loss at Utah last Friday where they gave up a pair of late scores after appearing to be in command of that game. Now they get a chance to redeem themselves against a lesser foe after having faced tough teams like Alabama and Stanford already this season. The Trojans blasted the Sun Devils 42-14 at Arizona State last year but USC still has a measure of revenge here as well. That's because the last time Southern Cal hosted ASU they gave up 3 late TD's in the final 4 minutes (including a Hail Mary on the last play of the game) to lose by 4 points. USC hasn't forgotten about that happening on their home field. The Trojans are on a 7-0 ATS run in regular season action in games where they are off of a game where they allowed 31 points or more. After allowing 31 to Utah last week, Southern Cal bounces back (as usual) this week! 8* USC Saturday night |
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10-01-16 | Louisville v. Clemson +2 | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 25 h 50 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #164 - 8* Clemson Tigers (-) vs Louisville Cardinals @ 8 ET Saturday - Clemson was as high as a 3.5 point favorite when this line came out but they now have moved all the way to being a 2 point dog. This is huge movement and has created significant value that certainly shouldn't be shrugged off. The key here is that everyone saw the Cardinals annihilate Florida State on national TV and that has resulted in an inflated perception about Louisville. Certainly the Cardinals should receive their "just due" but the public is a little enamored with them right now. Keep in mind Louisville's other 3 games came against Charlotte, Syracuse, and Marshall. The Thundering Herd didn't even have their starting QB and also returned only 4 starters on defense this season. As for Syracuse and Charlotte, they both rank near the bottom of FBS schools. The point is that Louisville had a great game plan and executed extremely well against the Seminoles but one game should not define an entire team's season and, in this case, the Cards are now on the road and facing a very tough foe. Clemson has won both of the ACC meetings between these schools and also has a rest edge since the Tigers had a Thursday game last week. Clemson dominated the Yellow Jackets and also looked much stronger against Auburn in week one than what the final score (19-13) would lead you to believe. The Tigers only have Boston College on deck and Clemson has gone 6-1 ATS in their game the week before BC as certainly Clemson knows they can leave it all on the field when it's only the Eagles on deck! The Cardinals win over the Noles is keying the value here and keep in mind, FSU has now allowed 34 points or more in all 3 of their games against FBS schools this season. Is the fact that Louisville ripped Florida State as impressive as it originally seemed? I say absolutely not and I say the Cardinals are going to have trouble with a Clemson defense that is allowing only 11 points per game and the Tigers have the veteran leader at QB in this match-up too of course. Look for Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney to take it to Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino a third straight time. 8* CLEMSON Saturday night |
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10-01-16 | Marshall v. Pittsburgh OVER 64.5 | Top | 27-43 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
Non-Conf Total of the Year - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #113/114 - 10* Top Play OVER in Pittsburgh Panthers vs Marshall Thundering Herd @ 7:30 ET Saturday - Sophomore QB Chase Litton is back for the Thundering Herd this week after being a late scratch (concussion) for last week's game. How much was Litton's scratch really due to concussion-like symptoms and how much of it was just "sacrificing the game" versus powerhouse Louisville? That is my feeling on this as Marshall head coach John Holliday played at West Virginia and also was on the Mountaineers staff for 23 years. That said, he has a special hatred for the Panthers as he had been involved in the "Backyard Brawl" series for many years as a Mountaineer. That said, Holliday has had his eyes on this big match-up at Pittsburgh and he'll have the Thundering Herd ready to go here. Marshall should do just fine on offense against a struggling Pitt defense that has given up 40.3 points per game the last 3 weeks. The problem for the Thundering Herd is a defense that only returned 4 starters from last year's team. The inexperienced unit is facing a Panthers offense that has produced 38.7 points per game the past three weeks. The Marshall defense has allowed an average of 62 points per game the past two weeks and will have their hands full here. The Thundering Herd are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 non-conference games and that includes 3-0 this season! The Panthers are 8-4 to the over in their last 12 non-conference games. Pittsburgh also is 3-0 to the over the last 3 weeks with each game totaling at least 73 points. This total was as high as a 70.5 and has moved down to as low as a 64.5 as of Friday evening and this is offering excellent line value. There is some rain expected at Heinz Field but winds will be light and the precipitation is not expected to be that significant. 10* OVER in Pittsburgh Saturday evening |
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10-01-16 | Kansas State v. West Virginia -2.5 | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -113 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #126 - 10* Top Play West Virginia Mountaineers (-) vs Kansas State Wildcats @ 3:30 ET Saturday - This line dropped from a 3.5 to a 2.5 Friday and that makes 3 a "win number" for West Virginia which is a great value here. I am well aware of the fact that Bill Snyder is one helluva coach and that Kansas State has defeated the Mountaineers each of the last four seasons. However, last year West Virginia outgained the Wildcats 447 to 304 and yet lost the game by a single point. The Mountaineers held Kansas State to just 10 of 31 through the air. In the last meeting here, in 2014, West Virginia held the Wildcats to a net of ONE rushing yard on 29 carries yet the Mountaineers still fell just short on the scoreboard. Overall, West Virginia has held the first down edge by 49 to 33 in the last two meetings and yet they lost both games on the scoreboard. The point is that coach Snyder hasn't exactly outsmarted Dana Holgorsen in these last two meetings. It's just been a pair of tough, tight losses for West Virginia despite having some key edges. With that said, this is a quadruple revenge spot for the Mountaineers and they are catching K-State at the ideal time. The Wildcats haven't played a tough opponent in a month and that was a double digit loss at Stanford. That was followed by a bye week for the Cats and then easy match-ups with Florida Atlantic and Missouri State! Look for the Wildcats to have trouble adjusting early on as they finally step back on the field with a formidable foe for the first time in 30 days! The Mountaineers are undefeated on the season and got a hard-fought win over BYU last week that will serve them well for facing a well-coached Kansas State team this week. There is only "so much" that coaching can do for a team and the Wildcats are on a 3-7 skid in Big 12 games their last 10 with an average margin of defeat of 15 points in those 7 losses! West Virginia is on a 5-2 ATS run at Mountaineer Field when they are a home favorite. 10* WEST VIRGINIA Saturday afternoon. |
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10-01-16 | Miami (Fla) -7 v. Georgia Tech | 35-21 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #157 - 8* Miami Hurricanes (-) @ Georgia Tech @ Noon ET Saturday - We are laying right around a 7 in this game but the set-up is truly ideal for a road rout. Even though the Hurricanes have played an easy schedule thusfar it certainly has helped them to build up confidence under new head coach Mark Richt. The former Georgia coach is, of course, very familiar with the Yellow Jackets and their option attack because the Bulldogs frequently faced Georgia Tech and head coach Paul Johnson. That, in and of itself, is a big edge for Richt but also note that the Hurricanes are off of a bye week AND they faced an option attack, Appalachian State, before the bye. The Canes are catching the Jackets at a good time as GT is still licking their wounds after the absolute beating they took against Clemson last Thursday. Georgia Tech was fortunate to beat Boston College earlier this season and only scored 17 points in that game and just 7 against Clemson last week. Overall the Yellow Jackets are on an ugly 2-11 ATS run and Richt is known for his ATS success in victories. When his team wins, he covers at a 67% rate - 90-45 ATS! Look for the Canes to get the win and look for another Richt cover in the victory! The Hurricanes add to their 6-1 ATS run in games against Georgia Tech. 8* MIAMI early Saturday |
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09-30-16 | Stanford v. Washington -3 | 6-44 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #110 - 8* Washington Huskies (-) vs Stanford Cardinal @ 9 ET Friday - The Cardinal are off of a ridiculous cover against UCLA Saturday as Stanford (-3) actually trailed 13-9 late in the game but they got a TD for a 3 point lead with just 24 seconds to go and then got a fumble return for a TD on the last play of the game to win by 9 points. The shocking cover for the Cardinal means that they are now 3-0 both SU and ATS this season and that is helping to create some line value this week. We can get Washington laying just a field goal at home in this one and the Huskies are 4-0 SU but only 2-2 ATS after Saturday's win in overtime over Arizona. Washington may have got caught peeking ahead to this game but they did have over 500 yards of offense in last week's win. Also, the Huskies have already forced at least 3 turnovers in each of their 4 games this season. As for Stanford, the Cardinal have only forced a total of 4 turnovers in their 3 games this year. Both teams have some solid defensive stats so far this year but the Huskies are averaging 103 more yards per game on offense so far this season. Also, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Washington has revenge for a 31-14 loss at Stanford last year. The Huskies are on a 17-9 ATS run as a home fave and have gone 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite in conference games. The scheduling situation here certainly favors the Huskies as the Cardinal are playing back to back road games and on a short week while Washington's short week is helped by the fact their playing at home for the 4th time in 5 weeks this season. The Huskies are 5-0 ATS the week before facing the Ducks and they have a trip to Oregon on deck for next week. Stanford is on a 2-4 ATS run in road games with posted total between 42.5 and 45 points and the Cardinal also are only 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games played on turf. Look for the Huskies speed, at home on FieldTurf at Husky Stadium to be the difference-maker in this one. 8* WASHINGTON Friday |
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09-29-16 | Dolphins v. Bengals -7.5 | 7-22 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
TNF Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #102 - 8* Cincinnati Bengals (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:25 ET Thursday - Nice set-up from a situational standpoint as the Dolphins are off their first win of the season (against the Browns) and it took overtime to get it. The extra effort (went to OT even though they were facing a bad Cleveland team) will certainly not do any favors for Miami in terms of now being on a short week and having to face an angry Bengals team. Cincinnati started last season 8-0 but they are now 1-2 to start this season as they blew a lead against the Broncos and lost to Denver by 12 last week. The game was certainly much closer than the final scored would indicate and the Broncos barely outgained the Bengals. In Cincy's first two games this season they won the yardage battle each time. The point is that Cincinnati still a much better team than their record is showing while the Dolphins still are a "question mark" at best with what they've shown so far this season. Note also that Miami is on a 1-8 (SU and ATS) run in games played on turf. Cincinnati is 9-1 SU (and 6-3-1 ATS) in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. Also, the Bengals have been strong when off of back to back SU losses. They were knocked out of the post-season in their first game in the playoffs in 2012 and then lost their season opener in 2013. Off those back to back SU losses, they responded with a win and cover in game 2 of the 2013 season. This began a stretch where Marvin Lewis and his Bengals are now a PERFECT 5-0 SU and ATS when they enter a game on a 2-game SU losing streak. Look for that streak to reach 6-0 this week! 8* CINCINNATI on Thursday |
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09-29-16 | Connecticut v. Houston OVER 49.5 | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #105/106 - 8* OVER in Houston Cougars vs Connecticut Huskies @ 8 ET Thursday - Connecticut has seen each of their last two games stay under the total and they're allowing only 22.5 points per game this season. However, the Huskies have played Maine, Navy, Virginia, and Syracuse so far this season. As you can see, that is nowhere close to being a list of offensive juggernauts and that means we are getting exceptional line value with the low total (currently 49.5) posted on this game! The Cougars are ranked as one of the top teams in the country and they are a 30-point favorite here for a reason. Houston can put up points in a hurry and they are playing this game with revenge as the Huskies ruined their undefeated season last year. The Cougars are averaging 44.8 points per game this season and though they've allowed minimal points this season, the Houston D has been helped big-time by turnovers. The Cougars defense impressed against Texas State and Lamar but those weak opponents were simply out-classed. Against Cincinnati and Oklahoma, Houston allowed an average of 300 passing yards per game and they now face a Connecticut team that has thrown for at least 264 yards in 2 of their last 3 games. Because of the revenge situation here, the Cougars will continue piling up the points even if they get a big lead. However, don't be surprised if the Huskies score more than many are expecting here. The weakness of this Cougars team is the secondary (4 DBs from last year's team graduated) and they can be exposed by a solid passing game. The Huskies offense certainly struggled last year but they returned 9 starters this season and have looked better early on this season. The over is 12-6 in Cougars Thursday games and also Houston is 6-2 to the over in home games where they are a favorite in a range of 21.5 to 31 points. The over is 3-1 in Huskies games where they are a road dog of 21.5 or more points. These edges are a combined 21-9 (70%) for the over and I expect an electric atmosphere in this one with the Cougars wanting to put on a show at home on ESPN in the weeknight spotlight! 8* OVER in Houston Thursday |
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09-26-16 | Falcons +2.5 v. Saints | Top | 45-32 | Win | 105 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
MNF Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #489 - 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 8:30 ET Monday - Huge revenge game for the Falcons as they lost both match-ups to the Saints last year. The first one, at New Orleans, ended Atlanta's 5-game winning streak to start the season. That also began an ugly 1-7 run for the Falcons that ruined their season. They haven't forgotten and, even though the Saints will be hungry here because of an 0-2 start to the season, the Falcons won't be denied. Both teams have solid offenses but New Orleans struggled at New York in the loss to the Giants last week. The Saints defense only allowed 16 points last week but 3 turnovers were the key as New Orleans actually allowed 417 yards. Also, prior to that game, the Saints had allowed an average of 28 points per game in their last 10 games. New Orleans is only 4-10 ATS in the role of home favorite and the revenge-minded Falcons are coming into this one flying high after another strong performance from QB Matt Ryan in last week's win at Oakland. Atlanta outgained the Saints in both meetings in each of the past two years but last year still lost both on the scoreboard. Falcons head coach Dan Quinn is fired up about getting his first win over this division rival (after going 0-2 last year) and you can bet the defensive-minded coach paid plenty of attention to how the Giants frustrated Drew Brees and the Saints offense last week. More of the same this week. 10* ATLANTA Monday Night |
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09-25-16 | Bears +6.5 v. Cowboys | 17-31 | Loss | -102 | 26 h 59 m | Show | |
Sunday Night Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #487 - 8* Chicago Bears (+) @ Dallas @ 8:30 ET Sunday - The Bears will have QB Brian Hoyer under center for this one and truly he will be an upgrade for Chicago as Jay Cutler struggled badly last week. Look for the 0-2 Bears to rally around Hoyer for this game and note that the defense has been solid for Chicago. This line move up from a 5.5 to a 7.5 before setting back in right around 7 as of Saturday evening. This is a great value spot to grab the dog as the Bears catch Dallas off of a fortunate win. The Cowboys struggled with the Redskins last week and Washington looked like they were going to punch it in and take a 10 point late lead before an errant pass in a "goal to go" situation ended up being a 14-point swing. It was some of the stupidest play-calling I have ever seen from a head coach as the Redskins consistently moved the ball against Dallas but then made some risky play-calls and finally got burned on one that decided the game. Credit is due to Dallas for hanging in there and grabbing the 4 point win but it truly was a gift from Washington and I am not impressed with the Dallas defense this season. The Cowboys gave up 432 yards to the Redskins and you can bet that Hoyer is going to be looking to the make the most of this opportunity in the national spotlight against a secondary that has a lot of question marks. Dallas is known for struggling at home and they have gone 5-16 ATS as a home favorite when facing a team from outside their division. Also, the Bears are led by a defensive-minded head coach and you can bet John Fox will have some special packages in mind for facing Cowboys rookie Dak Prescott in this one. Even though the Bears have a division rival on deck, Chicago actually has gone a phenomenal 14-2 ATS in their game prior to facing the Lions. The Cowboys are 1-9 ATS when Dallas is off of a straight-up win and facing a team that has a losing record and is playing with revenge. That is the case here as the Cowboys got the fortunate win over the Redskins last week while the Bears are 0-2 on the season and seeking to avenge a loss in Chicago in 2014 when Dallas most recently faced the Bears. 8* CHICAGO Sunday |
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09-25-16 | Steelers v. Eagles +4 | Top | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
Ultimate PA Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #482 - 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:25 ET Sunday - No one believes in the Eagles yet because they've only beaten the Browns and Bears. However, Cleveland actually jumped on Baltimore 20-0 last week before eventually losing. You didn't see Cleveland jump on top of Philly 20-0 did you? As for the match-up with the Bears, even though Chicago's offense certainly may have some issues they are a solid defense and well-coached by John Fox who is certainly a defensive-minded head coach. The Bears weren't able to stop the Eagles in what was supposed to be the Eagles first loss of the year. Now the talk is that Pittsburgh will take them down because finally the Eagles face a top team. Perhaps this is the week that Philadelphia loses but, if they do, it should not be by more than a field goal. Let's not forget, Philly has home field here, and also their defense is vastly improved and certainly the overall "locker room" and team "chemistry" is worlds better now in Philly. Give credit to new coach Doug Pederson and the entire Eagles management team. They are doing a good job already in Philly in terms of having put the right pieces together and that certainly includes rookie QB Carson Wentz who certainly is not your "average rookie" in terms of his intellect for the playbook and for making quick decisions in terms of reading coverages and reading defenses overall. He is a sharp kid with a strong arm and he'll give Pittsburgh some trouble Sunday as, fortunately for the Eagles, they are catching the Steelers at the perfect time. Pittsburgh just got a huge win last week over the division rival Bengals and that is always a physical game that is very taxing mentally and physically to the Steelers. The last 4 times that Pittsburgh is off of a game against Cincinnati they have not covered their next game a single time. The Eagles have their bye week on deck so they will certainly put every ounce of energy into this game and the atmosphere at The Linc is certainly going to be electric. As for the Steelers, they poured every ounce of energy into last week's key divisional win! Philly is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against AFC opponents. Even though these teams are in the same state they don't meet often since they are in opposite conferences but historians will like the fact that the Eagles have covered 4 of the last 5 including all 3 in Philly. The Eagles continue to be undervalued as, with their bye week on deck and with the Steelers off a very demanding divisional showdown, the situational edge here is with the home dog. 8* PHILADELPHIA Sunday |
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09-25-16 | Chargers v. Colts OVER 51 | Top | 22-26 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #485/486 - 10* Top Play OVER in Indianapolis Colts vs San Diego Chargers @ 4:25 ET Sunday - Both teams have gone over the total in each of their first two games and it wasn't because of fluke results either. With Philip Rivers leading the Chargers and Andrew Luck leading the Colts you have two of the top QBs in the league leading these high-powered offenses. As for the defenses, each of these units ranks among the worst in the league and the Indy secondary has been ravaged by injuries of late. Rivers and company have to be "licking their chops" at the downfield opportunities they will have in this game. At the same time, the Chargers defense was monumental in defeat in terms of how they blew that first game at Kansas City, an eventual OT loss for San Diego. Even though the Chargers bounced back with a big home win over the Jaguars, don't be fooled by the final scored. San Diego only allowed 14 points but Jacksonville had nearly 400 yards of offense in that game. The Colts are off of a tough game at Denver but that came against a Broncos defense that is arguably the best in the league. The scarier part of that game was the fact that the Colts D gave up 400 yards to a very questionable Denver offense. That said, the high-powered Chargers attack should roll right through the Indy D on Sunday. Dating back to last season, Indianapolis has allowed an average of 31.6 points per game in their last 7 games! The Chargers had one good game on the road last season. In their other 7 road games last season San Diego allowed an average of 26.6 points per game. This season the Chargers gave up 33 total (27 in regulation) in their lone road game. There is no reason this game shouldn't end up being a 35-31 type game the way these defenses are playing and the way these two QBs can sling it. 10* OVER in Indianapolis Sunday afternoon |
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09-25-16 | Broncos v. Bengals -3 | 29-17 | Loss | -130 | 19 h 26 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #462 - 8* Cincinnati Bengals (-) vs Denver Broncos @ 1 ET Sunday - The Broncos have been fortunate so far this season. Certainly Denver has a solid defense and I would never argue that. However, new QB Siemian now makes the first road start of his NFL career. Keep in mind, he made a lot of mistakes against the Panthers in Week 1 and the Broncos were fortunate to win that game. Then, last week against Indianapolis, Siemian was certainly aided by the fact that the Broncos DEFENSE scored a pair of touchdowns. Cincinnati is fired up after their loss to Pittsburgh last week as the Bengals outgained the Steelers but lost the game by 8 points. Cincy has won each of their last 4 home openers handily and did not lose a single one ATS either. The Bengals threw for 366 yards last week against Pittsburgh and that aerial attack will be the key to keeping the Broncos D off balance. The Broncos are on a 7-16 ATS run when they are a road dog outside of their own division. The Bengals are on a 13-6 ATS run when they are a home favorite. Also, Cincy is on a 9-0 ATS run against AFC West opponents and, believe it or not, Cincinnati is actually on a 6-1 ATS run in their game that immediately follows facing Pittsburgh. A tightener to that is that the last 4 times in a regular season game after losing to the Steelers in the prior game, the Bengals are a PERFECT 4-0 ATS in their next game! Cincy is fired up again after the loss to the Steelers and I look for Siemian to struggle in his first road start. 8* CINCINNATI Sunday |
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09-25-16 | Lions v. Packers -6.5 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show | |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #474 - 8* Green Bay Packers (-) vs Detroit Lions @ 1 ET Sunday - The Packers are off of a disappointing loss on Sunday Night Football. They will be hungry for another huge divisional game this Sunday in what is also their home opener. Green Bay has only lost the money ONCE in their last NINE home openers. The fact this line has moved from an 8.5 opener all the way down to as low as a 6.5 as of Saturday evening means that we are getting excellent line value here. Green Bay has underperformed on offense so far this season but they did face a tough Vikings defense last week. Now this week the Packers are finally at home and they also face one of the worst defenses in the league. The Lions only allowed 16 points last week but the Titans were a combined 5-27 the last two seasons and yet still went into Detroit and upset them last week. The Lions allowed 13 fourth quarter points to Tennessee. This was after the Lions gave up 35 points on 450 yards at Indianapolis in Week One. Now Detroit must contend with a fired up Packers team that is on a 21-11 ATS run in a game after a straight-up loss. That defeat to the Vikings will bring out the best in Green Bay Sunday for their home opener and I am well aware of the fact that the Lions are seeking revenge for the Hail Mary loss at Ford Field last year but, keep in mind, the Packers also have revenge on their minds here. That's because Detroit beat the Pack at Lambeau last season the for the first time in 24 years! It's payback time! 8* GREEN BAY Sunday |
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09-24-16 | Arkansas +6.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 24-45 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Year - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #363 - 10* Top Play Arkansas Razorbacks (+) vs Texas A & M Aggies in Arlington, Texas @ 9 PM ET Saturday - A match-up of unbeatens and the Aggies are also 3-0 ATS. However, their week one win was over UCLA in overtime. A & M gave up 468 yards in that game. Their 2nd game was against Prairie View so certainly that was a chance for the Aggies to pad their stats. Then, last week, A & M did knock off Auburn but the Tigers had 26 first downs (compared to 19 for the Aggies) and Auburn did amass 236 yards on the ground. Keep in mind that the Aggies are known for struggling against the run and the Razorbacks have outgained them on the ground by a margin of 517 to 202 in the last two meetings between these teams. Texas A & M did prevail in those games but both were decided in overtime. There is exceptional line value here with the Razorbacks as a 6.5 point dog (as of Friday evening) as they are on a 9-1 ATS run when they are off of a game where they scored more than 35 points. Arkansas blasted Texas State 42 to 3 last week. Arky is also on an 11-4-1 ATS run in SEC games including 9-2-1 when they are an underdog in SEC action. The Aggies are on a 4-8-1 ATS run as a fave in SEC action and A & M is 7-17-1 ATS overall against SEC foes. The Aggies are over-rated right now, early in this season, as they have played the weaker schedule compared to Arkansas. Also, this is a neutral site game and Arkansas is arguably the better team. The Razorbacks defense did return 9 starters from last year's team and they are improved and it looks like head coach Bret Bielema will finally get his revenge against Kevin Sumlin and his Aggies. The Razorbacks are on a 7-1 ATS run in games where they are an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. Arky is on an 11-4 ATS run against teams with a winning record. Conversely, A & M is on a 3-10 ATS run against teams with a winning record. Look for these trends to continue here. 10* ARKANSAS Saturday |
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09-24-16 | LSU v. Auburn OVER 44 | Top | 13-18 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #393/394 - 10* Top Play OVER in Auburn Tigers vs LSU Tigers @ 6 PM ET Saturday - Auburn only scored 16 points in last week's game versus Texas A & M but the Tigers were stopped on downs at the Aggies 12 and also held a 26-19 first down edge in the game. Auburn should bounce back against an LSU team whom they put up 21 points on at Death Valley last year. That game totaled 66 points and I expect much more than the 44 (as of Friday evening) that is the current total posted on this game. We're getting some line value here with a low total since LSU has stayed under the total in all 3 of their games this season and Auburn's 3 games have seen only 1 over result. The key helping the value is that LSU faced a very tough Wisconsin defense in week one but, since then, they have run more plays in week two and week three and LSU's offense actually ran 71 plays in last week's win over Mississippi State and very nearly broke the 400 yard mark. Auburn also has been increasing their tempo going from 71 plays to 85 plays to 89 plays so far this season. Keep in mind, Auburn's offense has totaled 1105 yards in their last two games! The defense of Auburn is a concern however with 231 rushing yards allowed versus A & M last week and, note that Auburn has allowed at least 247 passing yards in all three of their games this season! The over is 6-3 when LSU is off of a win over a conference foe. Also, the over is 6-3 when LSU enters a game off of consecutive straight-up wins. With LSU off of back to back wins totaling 57 points and with Auburn looking to respond in a big way after a disappointing home effort versus Texas A & M, I look for plenty of points in this one and will take advantage of the low number being offered. LSU had 323 yards at halftime of last year's game against Auburn! Look for LSU to have another big effort in this year's game but Auburn has been pushing the pace on offense this season and they're not going to slow it down in this game. 10* OVER in Auburn Saturday |
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09-24-16 | Florida v. Tennessee -4.5 | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #384 - 8* Tennessee Volunteers (-) vs Florida Gators @ 3:30 ET Saturday - The Gators have won 11 straight times over the Vols. The opening line on this game saw the odds makers hang an 8 on the Volunteers! Free money, right? The odds makers have lost their minds, right? Hardly! How many times have you seen that happen? That is simply not the case and yet the whole world has jumped on Florida here as this line is down to a 4.5 as of Friday evening. The fact is that there is plenty of good reasoning for the Vols putting an end to the losing streak with the Gators in Saturday's match-up and that is why I have no reservation about laying the very reasonable number now available on the home team in this one. First off, the Gators lost their starting QB last week and his replacement (Austin Appleby) though experienced, has a 2-9 record as a starter in his college career. The Vols have a the huge edge at QB as Joshua Dobbs is a senior who is the perfect guy to play behind a shaky offensive line (admittedly a weakness of the Volunteers). Even though the Gators may get some penetration they have to be very careful because Dobbs is elusive and then he burns teams with his legs or with busted coverage downfield by extending the play. Many forget that last season the Vols were up 27-14 late in the fourth quarter before some "gator magic" helped lead Florida to the win but that game was in the Swamp. It will be a much different story on the road this time around and the key to last season's match-up was that Vols head coach Butch Jones certainly had a good game plan! The 254 rushing yards that Tennessee had was the most that head coach Jim McElwain's Gators allowed all season long. I am well aware of the fact that Florida is off to an amazing start on defense this year but playing a weak schedule so far has certainly helped in that regard. Now the Gators take a big step up in terms of taking on a quality opponent and, unlike last season, the Vols won't blow a fourth quarter two touchdown lead this time around. Look for Gators QB Appleby to drop to 2-10 as a starter in his career. 8* TENNESSEE Saturday |
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09-24-16 | Florida State -5 v. South Florida | 55-35 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #387 - 8* Florida State Seminoles (-) @ South Florida Bulls @ Noon ET Saturday - The Noles were completely embarrassed in their 63-20 loss at Louisville last week. The Seminoles gave up 520 yards to the Cardinals in that game. They now face a Bulls team that is a 3-0 both SU and ATS so far this season. However, South Florida also gave up huge yardage last week and that was at Syracuse! The fact is that the Bulls have had a very easy schedule so far this season with games against Towson (FCS school), Northern Illinois (off a multi-OT road loss), and then the Orange last week. By the way, Syracuse lit up the Bulls "vaunted" defense for 549 yards! The point I am making is that the fact that South Florida has allowed 20 points or less in each of their three games this season is certainly something that should have an asterisk by it as they haven't played anywhere close to the schedule that FSU has. Though the Noles week one win over Ole Miss seems like a distant memory, it shouldn't be that way. This is a good Seminoles team that is fired up and that has not lost back to back games in 5 years! That's right, the Noles have not lost consecutive games since 2011. Their current streak (66 games) is only bettered by one team, Oregon (70) in the entire country. That said, I have no qualms about laying the 5 points here as the Seminoles have beaten the Bulls by a combined score of 64 to 31 in their last two meetings and they are fully focused for this opportunity to get back on track after last week's debacle. 8* FLORIDA STATE Saturday |
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09-23-16 | TCU -21 v. SMU | 33-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #305 - 8* TCU Horned Frogs (-) @ SMU Mustangs @ 8 ET Friday - Tough break for SMU with losing their starting QB, a senior, to a season ending knee injury. With Davis out, a freshman has taken over the reins at the QB position and it has certainly been a struggle for Ben Hicks. The young QB was playing high school ball in Waco last fall and, not surprisingly, he has struggled with a low completion rate plus he has thrown way too many picks here at the collegiate level. The Mustangs offense does move the ball well under head coach Chad Morris but the turnovers and mistakes have hurt SMU badly and they now face a TCU team that already saw the Morris offense last year. That spells trouble for the Mustangs and I expect the struggles for freshman QB Hicks to continue. As for the Horned Frogs, their offense can again "roll it up" on an SMU defense that continues to be the weakness of the team. Last year SMU allowed 45.7 points per game to rank near the very bottom of FBS schools. This season, they have been helped so far by facing a weak schedule to start the season with North Texas and Liberty included already this month but, in their one tough test Baylor put up 34 points in the 2nd half against the Mustangs after a rare, sluggish first half for the Bears. TCU is well aware of those first half struggles that Baylor had and the Horned Frogs already had an upset loss this season (against Arkansas). That said, there is no question they are going to bring full effort here for the full sixty minutes in this one! Keep in mind that, even though this is a non-conference match-up, both of these teams are from the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex and that insures that the Horned Frogs, even with a big lead, are not going to take their foot off of the gas in this one. TCU has scored at least 48 points in each of their last three games against SMU and the Mustangs only scored 13 against Baylor earlier this season. I rarely lay big points like this but everything points to a win here by about 5 TDs rather than the 3 TD margin that is the current spread on this one. By the way, TCU is on a perfect 5-0 ATS run in games after facing Iowa State. Also, SMU is just 2-8 ATS their last 10 as a home dog. Also, the road team has covered 6 of the last 9 in this series and the Horned Frogs won't let up here considering this is the Battle for the Iron Skillet. The last time the Mustangs hosted this rivalry game SMU was demolished 56 to 0. Another ugly home loss looms here. 8* TCU Friday |
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09-22-16 | Texans v. Patriots OVER 40.5 | 0-27 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
TX Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #301/302 - 8* OVER in New England Patriots vs Houston Texans @ 8:25 ET Thursday - This total is in the 40.5 range as of early gameday morning. The Patriots are likely to start Jacoby Brissett at QB and that is helping to keep this total lower than it should be. The Pats, with Bill Belichick at the helm, are very well coached and Brissett was known for rising to the occasion in big games in College. Coach Belichick will have an excellent game plan in place here and the Texans defense is going to be exposed. Houston's defense, based on some off-season changes, is unlikely to be on par with prior years. The reason they are off to a good start this season is because they faced a Bears team whose offense is one of the worst in the league and a Chiefs team that was off of a huge comeback victory in overtime that left Kansas City absolutely spent physically and mentally for their game at Houston. Now the Texans are on the road for the first time and they're facing a Pats team that is in the middle of a 3-game stretch at home and that has put up 54 points in their first two games even without Tom Brady at QB. Yes, Jimmy Garoppolo was under center for most of that but this Patriots offense is a "well-oiled machine" and Brissett will be ready to take over the controls. The concern for the Pats tonight is their defense as they allowed 459 yards last week to the Dolphins...yes, the DOLPHINS! With Houston off to a 2-0 start and feeling confident on offense they will be able to move the ball on a Pats defense that has some areas of concern. We're getting line value here because each of the Texans first two games have stayed under the total and because New England has the aforementioned QB issues. 6 of the last 7 meetings between these teams have gone over the total including all 3 games played at New England. Also, in Patriots games with a line between +3 and -3, the over has gone 10-3 (77%) the past 2 seasons! 8* OVER in New England Thursday |
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09-22-16 | Clemson -9.5 v. Georgia Tech | 26-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #303 - 8* Clemson Tigers (-) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 7:30 ET Thursday - The last time Clemson visited Georgia Tech they lost 28 to 6 two years ago. That said, even though the Tigers have a big game on deck with Louisville coming up next week, there is no way that Clemson will overlook the Yellow Jackets here. That is bad news for Georgia Tech because, though their 3-0 record looks great, they truly haven't faced anything close to the quality of an opponent like the Tigers this season. Georgia Tech has faced Boston College (1-2 and just lost to Virginia Tech 49-0) and Mercer (an FCS school) and Vanderbilt (1-2 and only win came against Middle Tennessee State). Now the Yellow Jackets take on one of the best teams in the nation and Clemson drilled them 43-24 last year as Georgia Tech was held to their lowest yardage output of the season. The Tigers run defense is allowing only 2.6 yards per carry this season and that will be a key in shutting down the Yellow Jackets triple-option offense which is so heavily focused on the ground game. Clemson held Auburn to a total of only 262 yards in their week one non-covering win. Auburn got a late TD for the backdoor cover but Clemson has now forced 8 turnovers in their first three games and their defense will be a key. Just like last year, the Tigers again give the Yellow Jackets offense a lot of problems and drop Georgia Tech to 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 lined games. The Tigers are on a 17-9-1 ATS run in ACC action and this is their conference opener. Their first ACC game, Georgia Tech's 3-0 start, and past struggles in road games against the Yellow Jackets means a fully focused effort from the road team here. Look for a road rout to be the result. 8* CLEMSON Thursday |
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09-19-16 | Eagles +3 v. Bears | 29-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #289 - 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Chicago Bears @ 8:30 ET Monday - The Bears are 9-22-1 ATS in home game the past 4 seasons combined. This is their home opener and it is Monday night and yes, it is the Eagles Carson Wentz first road contest as an NFL rookie. However, he is not your "typical" rookie QB in that he ran a pro style offense in college at North Dakota State. Also, his intellect is off the charts and this has helped him learn the playbook of the Eagles very quickly as well as helping to make good, split-second decisions on the field. Even though the Eagles win in Week 1 came against the Browns and much was made to downgrade the Philadelphia victory, that was the same Cleveland team that jumped out to a 20-0 lead over Baltimore yesterday before eventually falling just short of an upset win over the Ravens. As for the Bears, not only has Soldier Field not been special for them at the betting window in recent seasons, this offense has struggled as they ranked 23rd out of 32 teams for scoring last season. In week 1, the Bears only managed 258 yards and 14 first downs. The Eagles defense was very impressive in last week's win as they held the Browns to 10 points, 288 yards, and 14 first downs. Wentz threw for nearly 300 yards plus had 2 passing TDs in the win over Cleveland. The Bears are currently on an 0-6 ATS skid in home games when they are off of a non-conference game. After Chicago was held scoreless by the Texans in the 2nd half of last week's game, look for the Eagles to be mindful of the adjustments that Houston made at halftime that led to the shutout of Chicago in the second half last week. Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS on Mondays when they enter Monday Night Football off of a straight-up win. After knocking off the Browns last week, look for the Eagles to build off of that momentum. Supported by that 8-1 ATS stat and the 6-0 ATS stat against the Bears we've got combined 14-1 ATS edges working in our favor in this one and I expect the Bears home ATS futility to continue. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-18-16 | Packers -1.5 v. Vikings | 14-17 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 58 m | Show | |
Blowout Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #287 - 8* Green Bay Packers (-) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 8:30 PM ET Sunday - The Vikings are expected to start Sam Bradford who was acquired from the Eagles right before the season. Minnesota snuck by the Titans at Tennessee last week but the QB situation is a concern with all the issues due to Teddy Bridgewater's injury happening so late in training camp. The Vikes beat the Titans by 9 points last week but Minnesota was outgained in that game as the win was certainly helped by a +3 turnover margin. Keep in mind though that this was a Tennessee team that is a combined 5-27 the past two seasons. Now Vikings, still trying to adjust at QB, face a fierce division rival with revenge on their minds. The Packers lost the season finale to Minnesota last year and that resulted in Minny winning the division and Green Bay entered the playoffs on the road as a wild card. It is now time for a little payback and we're getting line value here because the line has gone from as a high as a -3 on Green Bay to very nearly a pick'em. Of course the Vikes are a popular choice this week since they're opening up their new stadium and have done so well at home ATS in recent seasons. What many are not realizing is that the Vikings just are not the same team without Bridgewater and bringing in Bradford now could be a disaster. He has had very little time to adjust to the Vikings playbook and now faces a fierce division rival in primetime action. The Vikings defense led the way in last week's win but QB Aaron Rodgers and company...present a much tougher challenge than the Titans did last week. The Packers, prior to the loss to the Vikes at the end of the regular season last year, had won 5 games and tied once with the Vikings in their last 6 meetings. Minnesota hadn't beaten Green Bay since the 2012 season. Look for the Packers to give Bradford and a weak Vikings offense all sorts of trouble here. 8* GREEN BAY Sunday night |
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09-18-16 | Colts +7 v. Broncos | Top | 20-34 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
Shocker of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #281 - 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (+) @ Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET Sunday - The Broncos survived their season opener but it truly was a "choppy" debut for new QB Siemian as turnovers certainly were an issue. Overall the Broncos were outgained and narrowly held on for the 1 point victory. I look for Denver to be exposed here as the Colts offense is so dangerous with QB Luck at the controls and Indianapolis put up 450 yards of offense in last week's loss to the Lions. Of course the issue for the Colts, as it was last week against the Lions, is their defense. However, this Broncos offense is going to have some "growing pains" with Siemian at the helm. Denver is on an 0-9 ATS run in games against the Colts and with this spread working all the way up from an opener of 4.5 to a 7 as of Saturday, it is "go time" for me. Indianapolis, the last 10 times they are off of a loss and then are a dog of at least a point or more (basically out of the pick'em price range) they have gone 10-0 ATS! Fired up after a missed opportunity win at home against Detroit last week, the Colts will bring their "A game" this week. The Broncos, by virtue of sneaking out that 1 point win over Carolina, continue to be over-rated and that is evident by the line move here as the Denver backers are out in full force. The Colts are very hungry off of their disappointing 8-8 campaign and the super bowl champ Broncos certainly have a target on their backs this season. Denver is on a 2-5 ATS run as a home fave of 3.5 to 7 points and the Colts are on a 6-2 ATS run as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points . 10* INDIANAPOLIS in the later games Sunday afternoon |
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09-18-16 | Seahawks v. Rams OVER 37.5 | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
#1 O/U Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #279/280 - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks @ 4:05 PM ET Sunday - Being a contrarian, of course, certainly does not always work. However, it definitely qualifies as a key tool in the arsenal of a quality handicapper and "going against the masses" has played a key role in much of my success in the NFL through the years. This Sunday I go for it again with a situation I feel is offering tremendous value. This total opened up at a 40.5 and has dropped all the way down to a 37.5 as of Saturday. Of course I completely understand the move. The Rams offense was one of the worst in the league last year and then got shutout on Monday night at San Francisco. Seattle has one of the top defenses in the league and the Seahawks are coming off of a 12-10 win versus Miami last Sunday. Why the over here? The Seahawks are seeking revenge as they were surprisingly swept by the Rams last year. That said, Seattle won't take their foot off of the gas if they get up big in this game. Los Angeles has the reputation of being strong defensively but they slipped last year and the yards per game they allowed was much more indicative of this defense than the points allowed. The Rams also lost some key defensive players coming into this season. Look for Los Angeles to struggle to stop a very determined Seahawks offense here but the "surprise factor" here is that I expect Los Angeles to enjoy some surprising success on offense. Yes, the Rams totally laid an egg last week but this is their first home game after the move from St Louis and let's not forget that Jeff Fisher's Rams have scored at least 23 points in 3 of their last 4 meetings with the Seahawks. The last two times the Rams hosted the Seahawks they have averaged 31 points per game. After last week's embarrassment the Rams will play much better on offense this week and head coach Fisher has managed to surprise the Seahawks before. However, I don't see the Rams getting the upset this time but I do expect Seattle to put up a ton of points against this over-rated defense. 10* OVER in Los Angeles Rams in the later games Sunday afternoon |
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09-18-16 | Cowboys v. Redskins -3 | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 24 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #272 - 8* Washington Redskins (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 PM ET Sunday - The Redskins won't be popular with the betting markets this week as everyone watched them get obliterated by the Steelers on Monday Night and Washington is now on a short week. The key here though is that this is a huge rivalry game and it is a key road test for the Cowboys rookie QB. Though Prescott didn't make key mistakes last week sometimes playing too cautious can cost a team too. Note that star WR Bryant only caught one pass and "managing a game" but still losing is a fruitless endeavor. Now Prescott faces a much tougher test on the road and the Redskins are fired up after losing by 22 points last week versus Pittsburgh. Lets not forget that the Skins are the defending NFC East champs and Dallas continues to have a putrid record without Tony Romo at QB. Washington is on a 4-1 ATS run in divisional battles while Dallas is on an overall 3-11 ATS run. The Redskins have lost their home game with the Cowboys each of the last three seasons and that means it is time for a little payback today as they have the defense capable of giving a rookie QB a lot of trouble. Look for their defensive line to get a lot of pressure on Prescott and also look for a myriad of blitzes and stunts from the Skins defense in this one. 8* WASHINGTON early Sunday afternoon |
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09-17-16 | Ohio State v. Oklahoma +1 | 45-24 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 45 m | Show | |
Marquee Showdown - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #192 - 8* Oklahoma Sooners (+) vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ 7:30 ET Saturday - Ohio State is ranked #3 in the country and the Buckeyes have won their first two games this season by a combined score of 125 to 13. Oklahoma is ranked #14 in the nation but what the betting markets remember about them is their ugly season-opening loss against Houston. The Sooners are 0-2 ATS on the season and the Buckeyes are already 2-0 ATS this season. All of the above considered don't you find it curious that this line is only in the "pick'em" range on Ohio State? Exactly! Once again another contrarian play for me as I am going to grab the team that everyone remembers from their poor performance against Houston and I am going to fade the much higher ranked team that has been absolutely dominate so far this season. How can we do this with confidence? For one thing, the Sooners know they can't afford another loss. They have an "us against the world" mentality for this game and OU is hungry to prove they belong with the elite in college football after their disappointing week 1 performance. Keep in mind that the Buckeyes haven't truly been tested yet as they were favored by 4 TD's in each of their first two games. Keep in mind this is an OSU team that returned only 6 starters from last year's team while Oklahoma returned 13 starters from a team that was in the playoffs last year and OU, unlike OSU, certainly has already been tested this season by virtue of that big battle with Houston in Week 1. The Sooners erased some of the opening week disappointment with a 59-17 win over Louisiana Monroe last week but OU knows they need this game Saturday to get back into the national spotlight that they are use to being in. Though the Buckeyes win last week looks great at first glance, Ohio State certainly benefited from 6 Tulsa turnovers in that game. The Buckeyes offense didn't move the ball all that well for long periods of time especially early in the game. That same questionable offense will face a much stiffer test this week in Norman, OK! 8* OKLAHOMA Saturday evening |
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09-17-16 | Michigan State v. Notre Dame -7 | Top | 36-28 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
Blowout Game of the Month - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #186 - 10* Top Play Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 7:30 ET Saturday - Michigan State is ranked HIGHER than Notre Dame and yet the Spartans opened up as MORE than a TD underdog in this game! What does that tell you? Exactly! If you're a contrarian player like I am you are all over the Fighting Irish in this game. There is a reason the line may "look funny" and that's because Michigan State has had many successful seasons in recent years. However, as I stated before the season, the Spartans will be one of the teams I'll be looking to fade this year. Michigan State lost QB Connor Cook and also a ton of other returning starters on both sides of the ball. Even though the D should still be solid for the Spartans (despite losing a lot of starters) their offense is truly being "rebuilt" and they won't have the firepower to keep up with Notre Dame here. The Fighting Irish have already been tested as they had that tough battle with Texas to open up the season. As for the Spartans, they opened up against an FCS team, Furman, and then had a bye week last week. This has done very little to prepare Michigan State for the "onslaught" that this high-powered Notre Dame offense is going to throw at them Saturday. The Irish offense has averaged 33.5 points per game under Brian Kelly the last two seasons and they are already putting up big points this season (and not against FCS schools). The Spartans only beat Furman by 15 points in week one and the Irish didn't allow a TD to Nevada last week until late 4th quarter. It was a much better performance for the defense compared to week one against Texas but, again, the key here is that the Irish are at home and can put up points in a hurry and the Spartans offense just doesn't have the ability to "keep up" in a game like this. Don't be fooled by the line here. The Spartans will be exposed early this season and this is the first such opportunity so it is the right time to jump in. Michigan State is 2-6 ATS in September games the past 2+ seasons. The Irish are on an 11-2 SU run and 9-4 ATS run in home games! 10* NOTRE DAME Saturday evening |
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09-17-16 | Oregon v. Nebraska -3 | Top | 32-35 | Push | 0 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
TOP Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #168 - 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (-) vs Oregon Ducks @ 3:30 ET Saturday - Here you have an unranked Cornhuskers team taking on a ranked Ducks team and yet Nebraska is a 3 point favorite over Oregon. Of course this has many bettors flocking to Oregon but truly the odds makers knew what they were doing here. Nebraska is a team on the rise and the Ducks truly aren't the same team they were in recent seasons and yet Oregon remains very popular with bettors. Of course this helps drive value for us in spots like this as I expect Nebraska win this game by double digits. The Huskers have an edge here with head coach Mike Riley formerly coaching at Oregon State. As head man of the Beavers you have to know the Ducks program inside and out and that is an edge here. Cornhuskers QB Armstrong had a huge game last week through the air and Nebraska also delivered a huge game on the ground in the prior week. Certainly I respect the Oregon offense but their defense is very vulnerable and even got gashed by the ground game of Virginia and the Cavaliers certainly aren't known for that. The Huskers have the right personnel and systems to pound on the ground again like Nebraska teams of old but Armstrong also gives them the huge aerial threat that keeps defenses off balance. Note that Oregon had their worst season in a long time with a 9-4 showing last year and their defense allowed 485 yards per game and they now have a new defensive coordinator in Brady Hoke. This is a team that is regressing even though head coach Mark Helfrich is in his fourth year here. They just don't have the same talent level they had in the Chip Kelly years and they lost a ton of starters from last year's team. Conversely, Nebraska returned most of their starters from last year and, after a down year last year, they are poised to bounce back and have already covered each of their first two games while the Ducks are already 0-2 ATS. 10* NEBRASKA Saturday afternoon. |
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09-17-16 | Pittsburgh v. Oklahoma State -4.5 | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 21 h 22 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #174 - 8* Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Pittsburgh Panthers @ 3:30 ET - After the gut-wrenching loss to Central Michigan last week, Oklahoma State is fired up for this one. The Cowboys also benefit from catching Pittsburgh off of an emotional win over in-state rival Penn State as the Panthers renewed their rivalry with the Nittany Lions last week. Pitt has their ACC opener on deck and, even though OSU has their Big 12 opener on the deck, the travel situation strongly favors the Cowboys here. Oklahoma State is playing their third straight home game while the Panthers are making an unusual road trip to Big Twelve country. It is the first time Pittsburgh has played on the road against a Big 12 team since they traveled to Nebraska in 2005. The Cowboys returned the majority of their starters from last season's team so they have a veteran group that is ready to respond appropriately at home in Stillwater, OK after last week's unreal finish that handed them a tough loss. Look for the Cowboys to improve to 10-5 as a home fave in a range of 3.5 to 10 points while dropping the Panthers to 3-9 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games. 8* OKLAHOMA STATE Saturday |