Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-24-16 | Redskins v. Bears +3 | 41-21 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 60 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL 8* Chicago Bears (+) vs Washington Redskins @ 1 ET Saturday - The Bears have been playing hard and I don't expect that to stop in what is their final home game of the season. With their big comeback (lost but got inside the number) against the Packers last week, Chicago is now on a 5-0 (or 4-0-1) ATS run. They have the rest edge here as teams playing today on Saturday are certainly on a short week but it's tougher for the Redskins than the Bears as Washington hosted Carolina on Monday Night! The Skins are on a 1-3 ATS run (and 9-19 ATS long-term) when off of a Monday night game. Also Washington has not fared well as a favorite with a 5-9 ATS mark the past 3 seasons and a 58-91 ATS mark long-term. As a road favorite of 3 points or less the Redskins have gone 6-13 ATS. The Bears are a 5-2 ATS at home this season and 4-1 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record. Chicago also is on an 11-6 ATS run when they enter a game off of 2 or more consecutive losses. The Bears are hungry to win their home finale and knowing they can't make the playoffs they would love nothing more than to ruin the Redskins hopes of making the post-season as well. In doing so, Chicago would avenge their loss to Washington last December. I do expect the Bears to win this outright but will grab all available points. 8* CHICAGO |
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12-24-16 | Falcons v. Panthers +3 | 33-16 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL 8* Carolina Panthers (+) vs Atlanta Falcons @ 1 ET Saturday - Short week for both teams since this is a Saturday game and it is particularly short for the Panthers since they visited Washington on Monday Night. However, the fact that Carolina crushed the Redskins 26 to 15 and the fact that the Panthers have forced 8 turnovers has me backing the hungry and surging home dog in this one. The home team has covered 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams. Each of the last two meetings have been in Atlanta and the Falcons won and covered both and that sets this up as a double revenge spot for the Panthers. The last time they hosted Atlanta they blasted them 38 to 0. I definitely respect the Falcons and their top ranked offense but this is a big division rivalry and Atlanta is going from facing the Rams and 49'ers the past two weeks (combined record of 5-23 this season) to facing a surging division rival that is playing "hungry" and has produced solid wins in back to back weeks. Keep in mind, the Falcons had lost 2 of their last 3 before those back to back wins against two of the worst teams in the league. Also, Atlanta is on a 7-17 ATS run as a favorite the past 3 seasons. The Panthers are on a 15-8 ATS run the past three seasons in games where their line ranges from -3 to +3. I am expecting the upset but grabbing the points here! 8* CAROLINA |
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12-24-16 | Titans v. Jaguars +5.5 | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL 8* Jacksonville Jaguars (+) vs Tennessee Titans @ 1 ET Saturday - The Jaguars made news for firing their head coach after the 21-20 loss at Houston last week that was actually much uglier than the final score indicates. Even though that was another ugly loss for the Jags, I look for Jacksonville to respond after the firing and give a huge effort for interim coach Doug Marrone in what is the Jaguars final home game of the season. The Titans, of course, have plenty to play for and have won 3 straight games. Tennessee also is a very balance team with a solid offense and respectable defense. However, this is a bit of a "trap game" for the Titans because it's a divisional rival on the road and it is in front of a divisional showdown game with the Texans on deck for next week. Also, Jacksonville has simply been done in by turnovers and mistakes throughout this season. With Marrone taking over the reins and the players feeling some responsibility for Gus Bradley's firing right before Christmas, look for the Jaguars to give one helluva strong effort in this one. The key point about the turnovers and mistakes being a big issue for the Jags is further evidenced by the fact that their defense (321.4 ypg) ranks ahead of the Titans defense (358.4 ypg) but you would never know that by looking at the standings. Tennessee may indeed gut out a win here but I expect this to be a fiercely contested battle decided by 3 points or less. The Jaguars are going to go hard. Also, the Titans are on a 2-13 ATS run in divisional action, 3-17 ATS in games against teams with a losing record, and 28-49 ATS long-term when a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Jaguars are on a 6-3 ATS run in Saturday games and also 6-3 ATS when off of a loss to a division rival. 8* JACKSONVILLE |
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12-23-16 | Ohio v. Troy -4 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
Dollar General Bowl - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Troy Trojans (-) vs Ohio Bobcats @ Ladd Peebles Stadium in Mobile, AL @ 8 ET Friday - Even though Ohio University could be said to have the coaching edge here since Solich has so much experience and this will be Brown's first bowl game as a head coach, Solich's 7 trips to bowls with the Bobcats have resulted in only a 2-5 record. Certainly this venue favors Brown's Trojans as this game is being played down south and was a short trip for Troy. The biggest edge of all is the offense of the Trojans. While both teams have been solid on defense this season I am forecasting Troy to pull away in this one as their offense has been vastly superior to that of the Bobcats this season. Ohio University turned the ball over 7 times in their last 2 games played away from home while Troy State did not turn the ball over a single time in their final two road games of the season. Ohio U averaged just 302.3 yards per game in their last 3 games of the season while the Trojans averaged 438.6 yards per game on the season. Troy even put up 386 yards at Clemson earlier this season in a 6 point loss as a 5 TD underdog! The Trojans only other two losses were a turnover fueled loss to Arkansas State - whom, by the way, crushed Central Florida Saturday in bowl action - and a loss to Georgia Southern by just 4 points in their regular season finale. That loss cost the Trojans a share of their conference title and further motivates them to come up HUGE in this bowl game with a big win. Troy is on an 8-2 ATS run when off of a loss against a conference rival and the Trojans potent offense will prove to be too much for an Ohio U team that was held to 23 points or less in 7 of their last 11 games. 10* Top Play TROY minus the points in the Dollar General Bowl |
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12-23-16 | Louisiana Tech v. Navy OVER 68 | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Armed Forces Bowl - Rickenbach 8* OVER the total in Navy Midshipmen vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs @ Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, TX @ 4:30 ET Friday - Navy's offense was a train wreck against Army for two reasons. One was that they had just lost their starting running back and their starting quarterback on the same play in the prior game! The other reason was that the Black Knights are very familiar with the option attack and so that always gives their defense an edge against the Midshipmen. The key to this play is that Navy has had extra time with all the bowl practices to work in the replacements for the injured players. The other key is that the Bulldogs are not familiar with defending the option attack and I expect the Midshipmen to move the ball very well in this game. The weakness, as usual, for Navy is their defense and Louisiana Tech will attack this defense early and often with a passing attack that is averaging over 350 yards per game this season. The Bulldogs scored 44 points or more in 7 of their last 8 games this season. The Midshipmen had scored 42 points or more in 6 of their 7 games before losing the AAC Title game to Temple (QB and RB got hurt in this game) and then losing to Army (little time to adjust to personnel losses). With the extra time afforded by the bowl practices, the Navy offense will be ready to go here but their D is not going to stop the Bulldogs. Look for very few punts in this game! 8* OVER the total in the Armed Forces Bowl |
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12-22-16 | Giants v. Eagles OVER 41 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator Thursday - NFL Game #101 - Rickenbach 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants @ 8:25 ET - In their one point loss at Baltimore Sunday the Eagles showed they have thrown caution to the wind as they went for the 2-point conversion after a late TD with just 4 seconds left in the game. Had they been successful they would have got the win but instead they ended up with a one point loss. Of course the decision makes sense given that their season ended a few weeks ago (in terms of playoff hopes) as losses continued to pile up. How that leads me to the over in this match-up Thursday is because you can bank on the Eagles being willing to take chances throughout this game as they would love nothing more than to knock off the divisional rival Giants and certainly Philadelphia has nothing to lose. That means opening up the playbook, trick plays, etc. Whatever it takes this will be a wide open game from the Eagles perspective. Philadelphia has averaged 29.2 points per game in their last 5 meetings with the Giants but New York is a small favorite here and rightly so. The point is that a very high-scoring game in the range of 31-28 would not surprise here. Skies will be clear with winds likely only in the 10 mph range and temps in the thirties which is not bad at all for this time of year. The over is 3-0 in Eagles December games and 4-0 in their divisional games this season. More of the same tonight. 10* OVER in Philadelphia |
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12-22-16 | Colorado State -15 v. Idaho | Top | 50-61 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Potato Bowl ATS Crusher Thursday - CFB Game #219 - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Colorado State Rams (-) vs Idaho Vandals in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl @ Albertsons Stadium in Boise, ID @ 7 ET - Snow is on the way but not until Friday morning. The Vandals could have used that Thursday night to possibly help them hang around in this game. While I expect both teams to score plenty with light winds and clear conditions expected in Boise tonight, I look for the Rams to pull away in the second half of this game. The points look to be asking a lot in terms of the cover here but, keep in mind, Idaho not only played a weak schedule but also their 8 wins did not include a victory over a single team with a winning record. The Vandals are on an 0-7 SU (and 1-5 ATS) run against teams with a winning record the past 3 seasons. They played one of the weakest schedules in the nation this season and I expect them to be exposed for that here. Colorado State's schedule this season was only moderately tough but they did go a perfect 4-0 ATS against teams with a winning record. Also, the Rams are 7-0 SU (and 5-2 ATS) the past three seasons combined when they are a favorite in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. Colorado State has the much stronger rushing attack in comparing these two teams and also has the better pass defense. That said, once the Rams get a big lead they'll keep pounding away on the ground to wear down the Vandals defense and Idaho will struggle to keep up as they'll be forced to turn to the air against a respectable Rams pass defense. Colorado State head coach Bobo has enjoyed a rejuvenating season with the Rams and they're fired up for this bowl game after losing in last year's Arizona Bowl. With QB nick Stevens having a phenomenal season since replacing the injured Collin Hill, the Rams will put pressure on the Vandals defense all game long as the Colorado State offense is one of the best and most balanced units in the nation. Idaho, against the better teams they faced, gave up an average of 46.5 points per game. That was against Washington, Washington State, Troy, and Appalachian State. Look for Colorado State to pummel the Vandals D in this one and win this one by at least 3 TDs. Lay the big points. 10* COLORADO STATE |
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12-21-16 | BYU v. Wyoming +10 | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
Poinsettia Bowl Wednesday - CFB Game #218 - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Wyoming Cowboys (+) vs Brigham Young Cougars @ 9 ET - BYU has been pounded up to being a double digit favorite in this game and that is offering exceptional line value here. The Cougars have lost 3 straight bowl games and are playing in a bowl game for the 12th straight season. As for the Cowboys, the situation is much different and that has them much hungrier than Brigham Young for this game. Wyoming is playing in just their 3rd bowl game in the last 22 years! It is the Cowboys first bowl invite since 2011 and that has the entire program fired up about this opportunity. Wyoming head coach Bohl ended up being named the Mountain West coach of the year. He has done a fantastic job this season and though the bowl history is minimal for the Cowboys, head coach Bohl has gone 14-1 in FCS playoff games and led the way to 3 national titles at the FCS level. The man can coach and, keep in mind, of BYU's 8 victories on the year, only 1 came against a team that ended up having a winning record on the season. That was Toledo and the Rockets already lost their bowl game (to Appalachian State!) so that further adds fuel to the fire here in terms of what strong program has BYU actually beaten this season? The Cowboys have gone 6-1 ATS as an underdog this season and, though the Cougars have the better D in this match-up, Wyoming has the edge on offense and that will keep them in this game throughout and it is quite possible that the Cowboys even spring the upset here. That 6-1 ATS mark as a dog included 5 outright upset wins. Dangerous dog here going against a BYU team that is on a 1-5 ATS run when playing with extra rest and the Cougars have not played since November 26th while the Cowboys were in action on December 3rd. Too many points here. 10* WYOMING |
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12-20-16 | Memphis +7 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 31-51 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
Boca Raton Bowl - CFB Game #215 Tuesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers (+) vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida @ 7 ET - Waiting has paid off here as a line that was as low as a 3.5 when the bowl lines came out has now moved to as high as a 7 in many spots as of early morning on gameday. That makes it "go time" with the underdog here as I'll gladly take advantage of the generous points being offered. Both of these teams have dynamic offenses (especially through the air) so the key comes down to the better pass defense. Memphis has the better secondary and their pass defense has been solid with a 17-15 ratio this season. Additionally, the Tigers have the edges at head coach as Memphis will be going with their defensive coordinator (Holt) as the interim head coach here since Brohm was hired by Purdue. We already saw what happened in this bowl season with another team that was going through a head coaching transition (Houston going with Applewhite) and that resulted in the biggest blowout loss on the opening Saturday of bowl season. The Cougars went off the board as a 5 point favorite there but still got pummeled by San Diego State. I am not saying that this one will play out exactly the same but the point is that there is certainly value with the underdog here catching a full 7 points. This is especially true when you consider that is an additional motivating factor for Memphis. The Tigers come from the bigger conference and they are well aware that they are sizable dogs against "only" a CUSA team. That is additional motivation and certainly the Tigers played the tougher strength of schedule this year too. All signs point to the stronger team from the stronger conference (AAC) in this one. 10* Top Play MEMPHIS |
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12-19-16 | Panthers +7 v. Redskins | 26-15 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
MNF Primetime Punisher - NFL Game #331 - Rickenbach 8* Carolina Panthers (+) @ Washington Redskins @ 8:30 ET - I believe we're getting exceptional line value here because of Panthers QB Cam Newton's shoulder injury. Keep in mind, the Carolina defense has forced 10 turnovers in their last 4 games. By comparison, the Redskins have forced just 2 turnovers in their last 3 games. Statistically both of these defenses rank in the bottom third of the league but the Panthers held San Diego to just 278 yards last week plus forced 5 turnovers. Of course Carolina has had a frustrating season but, off of a win last week and knowing that this is truly their last chance to shine this season because of no post-season and no other prime-time games left for them, look for the Panthers to absolutely "bring it" on Monday Night Football tonight. The Redskins are over-rated in my opinion. Not only do they have a poor defense but their 7 wins and 1 tie have included Philadelphia (5-9 record) TWICE, the Browns (0-14), the Vikings (7-7), and the Bengals (5-8-1). Against the rest of the league Washington went just 3-5. I know the Panthers have a poor record on the season but this is still a team that went to the Super Bowl last season and will still "go hard" based on "professional pride" and the fact that the Monday Night lights are shining tonight. The fact this line is all the way up to a full +7 is what is truly adding great line value here. Keep in mind the Redskins didn't defeat the floundering Eagles until they got a TD with less than 2 minutes to go last week. Also, Washington lost their two games prior to beating Philly. Carolina has won each of its last 4 meetings with the Skins and the average margin of victory has been double digits! The Panthers are on a 14-6 ATS run as a road dog. Also, as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, Carolina is 4-1 ATS the past three seasons. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, the Redskins are a long-term 13-27 ATS. Grab the generous points in this one. 8* CAROLINA |
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12-19-16 | Central Michigan v. Tulsa OVER 69.5 | 10-55 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
Monday Daytime Dominator - CFB Game #213 - Rickenbach 8* OVER the total in Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Central Michigan Chippewas @ Marlins Park in Miami Beach Bowl in Miami, FL @ 2:30 ET - After all the bowl games stayed under the total (compared to the closing O/U line) on Saturday, look for things to change quickly here on Monday. This should be an absolute shootout between these team. The Golden Hurricane have one of the top offenses in the country but their defense is a glaring weakness. Tulsa has an ultra-balanced powerful offensive attack as they average an amazing 270 rushing yards AND 263 passing yards per game. However, the Golden Hurricane defense is their downfall. Tulsa may still win this game by two touchdowns (which is roughly the current point spread posted on this game) but my money is on the over. The Golden Hurricane, in looking at their final five games of the season, faced "ground oriented" Navy and their option attack in one of the games but in the other 4 games Tulsa allowed 1,418 passing yards for an average of 354.5 yards through the air per game! The Chippewas are led by a solid QB in Cooper Rush and the Chips are very strong through the air as they average 284 passing yards per game! The over is a long-term 22-12 in Central Michigan's games played on a grass field. The over is 25-11 in all of Tulsa's games the past three seasons combined and, included within that mark, the Golden Hurricane are a perfect 5-0 to the over in games where they are favored in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. 8* OVER in Tulsa |
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12-18-16 | Bucs +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - NFL Game #305 Sunday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:30 ET - The Cowboys only two straight-up losses this season are to the Giants after last week's loss at New York. However, last week's defeat did mark the 3rd straight ATS loss that Dallas has suffered and it is clear that rookie QB Dak Prescott has regressed a bit over the last couple weeks. Keep in mind that the pressure is more intense now too because Dallas still needs a win to clinch the NFC East and this is true even if the Giants lose to the Lions earlier in the day Sunday. I expect the pressure to start to catch up with "The Boys" here and the Dallas D was helped by facing a struggling Giants offense last week. Prior to that, Dallas allowed 1.347 passing yards their prior 4 games. That is an average of 336.8 passing yards given up per game for the Cowboys secondary. Tampa Bay's passing attack didn't have to do much last week as the Buccaneers defense did most of the "heavy lifting" to defeat the Saints last week. However, prior to that win over the Saints, the TB passing attack produced 1,417 yards in 5 games. That's an average of 283.4 passing yards per game for the Bucs offense. Don't be surprised if the Bucs (in a huge battle for the top spot in the NFC South) give the Cowboys all they can handle in this one! The Buccaneers are on a 5-1 ATS run as a road dog and all 5 wins were outright wins by an average margin of 7 points per game! That said, I'll certainly take the 7 points that are being offered here in a game where Tampa Bay could very well get the upset over the over-rated Cowboys who are starting to come back down to earth. At the very least, look for Dallas to suffer their 4th straight ATS loss. The Cowboys are on a 1-4 SU and ATS run against NFC South opponents. The Bucs are on a long-term 18-6 ATS run in road games where the posted total is between 45.5 and 49 points. More of the same Sunday night. 10* TAMPA BAY |
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12-18-16 | Patriots v. Broncos +3 | Top | 16-3 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
Game of the Month - NFL Game #326 Sunday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (+) vs New England Patriots @ 4:25 ET - The Broncos are one of the few teams that has given the Patriots some trouble in recent years. Certainly I am well aware of the fact that the Broncos offense is a weakness but their defense is a tremendous strength and they have fared well against Tom Brady and Company in recent years. Yes, this is a revenge game for the Patriots (since the Broncos knocked the Pats out of the post-season in January), but the fact is this is a tough spot for New England. The Patriots are on a short week and just faced a very physical Ravens defense and now have to face another tough, physical defense in the form of the Broncos. Also, the short week issue is magnified by having to travel plus now play in the thin air of Colorado. By the way, that air is extra thin when a strong cold front has just moved through. Conditions certainly aren't expected to be brutal but it is unlikely the temperature gets above freezing today in Denver and the "Mile High" air could wear down the Pats as the game goes on. The Patriots are only 1-5 ATS (and SU!) as a road fave of 3 points or less the past three seasons. Also, the home team has won each of the last 3 meetings between these teams. The Pats are a ridiculous 10-3 ATS this season but most of their wins since Brady returned have come against losing teams. The toughest AFC team the Patriots faced was the Steelers but Pittsburgh was without Ben Roethlisberger in that game. The toughest NFC team the Pats faced was Seattle and that was the lone game that the Patriots have lost since Brady returned. This could be loss #2 since Brady's return as the Broncos are fighting for their playoff lives and they are off of a tough, tight loss at Tennessee last week where their rally fell short. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less and all 4 wins were outright victories. Grab the points! 10* DENVER |
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12-18-16 | 49ers v. Falcons OVER 50.5 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
Total of the Week - NFL Game #323 - Rickenbach 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49'ers @ 4:05 ET - The Falcons are the #1 offense in the league based on points per game. The 49'ers are the worst defense in the league based on points allowed per game and yards given up per game. This game is, of course, being played in a dome so there is no weather concern here and I look for both teams to truly "open it up" on offense. Certainly it has been a dismal season for the 49'ers but there have been a few "flickers of life" for the 49'ers offense throughout the season. Other than a 6 point effort at Chicago two weeks ago, San Francisco has averaged 20.4 points per game in their other games this season and the Niners have not been held to less than 16 points in any of those 12 games. The 49'ers offense should enjoy success against a Falcons defense that ranks as one of the league's worst and also is currently dealing with significant injury issues effecting the secondary. The issue for San Francisco is going to be in trying to stop Matt Ryan and Company through the air and I just don't see that happening. The Falcons just have too much on offense, even with Julio Jones likely out for this game. The over is 8-0 this season in Atlanta's games played on turf. Long-term the Falcons are on a 23-10 ATS run to the over in their games against NFC West opponents. Also, the 49'ers are 4-2 to the over in their road games under Chip Kelly and 3-0 t the over in their games against NFC South foes. 10* OVER in Atlanta |
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12-18-16 | Lions +4.5 v. Giants | 6-17 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
NFL Game #307 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Detroit Lions (+) @ New York Giants @ 1 ET - The Lions are catching the Giants off of a huge Sunday night win over the division rival Cowboys. That sets this one up nicely as, even though Detroit is off of a divisional win also, the Lions victory came against a 3-10 Bears team. The Giants offense has been held under 300 yards now for three straight games! The Lions are coming off of a non-covering win last week but that was their 5th straight SU win and Detroit brought a 7-1 ATS run in that game versus Chicago. Last week's game against the Bears marked the 7th straight time that the Lions have allowed 20 points or less as their defense continues to improve. Looking at the Giants 10 games prior to beating Dallas last week, their defense dominated the Browns, Bears, and Rams but those teams are a combined 7-32 on the seasons! In the other 7 games the Giants allowed at least 20 points in all 7 games and the average points allowed was 23.7 points per game. The Lions and the Giants have more in common than their 9-4 records, Detroit is just as good (if not better) than New York and you can see by the defensive numbers above and the Giants recent futility on offense, that there is no reason for the Giants to be favored by 4.5 points in this game. The value is with the points especially with the G-men off of such a big win. 8* DETROIT |
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12-18-16 | Colts +5 v. Vikings | 34-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
NFL Game #313 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Indianapolis Colts (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - Andrew Luck or Sam Bradford? Who would you rather have at QB? This game is being played indoors and Luck and Company are off of a turnover-plagued home to the division rival Texans last week. The Colts are still alive in the playoff race but this a must-win for them and I look for Luck to respond in a big way after last week's disappointing defeat. As for the Vikings, yes they won last but they only had a small yardage edge and that was against a 2-11 Jacksonville team. The Vikes certainly face a much tougher test this week. The Colts have won and covered three straight road games! Amazingly, Indianapolis has played 6 games away from home this season and they've averaged 29.7 points per game in those 6 games. Certainly I respect the Vikings defense but this is a dangerous Colts offense and Minnesota had lost 6 of their last 7 games before defeating the Jaguars last week. Indy is 10-5 SU and ATS when off of a divisional game and also the Colts have gone 8-4 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points the past three seasons combined. More of the same here. 8* INDIANAPOLIS |
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12-18-16 | Titans +6 v. Chiefs | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
NFL Game #317 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Tennessee Titans (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 1 ET - The Chiefs have been fortunate this season in terms of turnovers and they also have been excellent in special teams play. That has been the key to a 10-3 record despite, based on yardage, ranking 24th on offense and 27th on defense this season. Truly the Chiefs have to be one of the "worst good teams" ever based on the stats they've produced this season. Certainly one must give credit to Kansas City for "finding a way" week in and week out but the point is that this is still an over-rated football team. That is helping to drive this line higher than it should be as KC actually comes into this game on a 2-7 ATS run in home games and yet this line is up near a full TD. It will be very cold in Kansas City Sunday afternoon and I look for the Titans to hold the edge here as the ground game could be key. Tennessee is one of the top teams in the league with their ground attack on offense AND in terms of defending the run on defense. The Titans offense struggled last week but that was against Denver and the Broncos have one of the best defenses in the league. Tennessee will find the going a little easier this week! The Titans also have an edge in catching the Chiefs off of a huge divisional win over the Raiders last week that was a battle of teams at the top of the AFC West. Kansas City has only covered 2 of their last 7 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and I look for that trend to chalk up another ATS loss this week. 8* TENNESSEE |
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12-17-16 | Southern Miss -6.5 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
Opening Day Top Play - CFB Game #211 Saturday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-) vs UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns in the New Orleans Bowl in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome @ 9 ET - In looking at all the Saturday bowl match-ups this is the one that is the biggest mismatch in terms of ATS records this season. That disparity helps to give line value here because Southern Miss only went 3-9 ATS this season while Louisiana went 8-4 ATS on the season. The result is extra line value here toward the Golden Eagles and, yes, I am of course well aware of the fact that there has already been significant upward movement on the Eagles in this match-up but there is still great value here. Southern Mississippi's numbers are a bit skewed this season due to some injury issues with star senior QB Nick Mullens. When he is on the field, this is simply a different team and the Golden Eagles rolled Louisiana Tech in their final regular season game to become bowl eligible. Mullens had a huge game against the Bulldogs and I expect nothing less in this bowl game from the senior QB as he is a true "gamer". Mullens is a leader and he'll go hard here to get this bowl win as a senior. Southern Miss lost the two games he didn't play in and they also had a loss to LSU but that is a tough SEC team of course. The point is that they went 6-3 in the other 9 games that Mullens started and they now take on a rather weak Sun Belt Conference team. I know UL-Lafayette won big over rival UL-Monroe in their season finale to become bowl eligible but the Ragin' Cajuns were actually quite fortunate that game was played in a rainstorm. It benefited Louisiana in the form of them being the beneficiary of 5 UL-Monroe turnovers. However, there certainly won't be any rainstorm in this one as it is being played in a dome and I don't seee anything stopping Mullens and a strong Southern Miss offense in this one. I am aware of the Ragin' Cajuns solid bowl history but the Golden Eagles lost their bowl game last season and Mullens and company want to make up for that in a big way this season. Also, Louisiana has gone 0-2 ATS in recent seasons (and 5-15 SU) long-term in their match-ups with Conference USA opponents. The Golden Eagles are the stronger team with the better offense. Mullens has a 60-22 TD-INT ratio in his junior and senior year combined. The Ragin' Cajuns Anthony Jennings has thrown 12 picks against just 11 TDs this season! 10* Top Play SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI GOLDEN EAGLES Saturday night |
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12-17-16 | Dolphins -130 v. Jets | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 34 h 24 m | Show |
Saturday NFL Blowout Rout - NFL Game #303 Saturday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Miami Dolphins (-) @ New York Jets @ 8:25 ET - With this line dropping lower (currently a -2) I would recommend playing the money line in this match-up as it is a great value on the 8-5 Dolphins. Yes, I am well aware of the fact that Ryan Tannehill is out for Miami but back-up QB Matt Moore is a veteran back-up and he was able to work out some of the rust last week in relief of Tannehill. You can bank on Moore being ready for this game and the remainder of the Dolphins roster is actually much healthier than the Jets roster and, let's not forget, New York is starting young QB Bryce Petty who has 3 picks against just 1 TD in his last two games. Also, Petty was sacked 6 times in last week's win. Even though the Jets won that game in comeback fashion it was against a 49'ers team that is now just 1-12 on the season. In fact, the hapless Jets have only 4 wins this season and one of the other victories was against the now 0-13 Browns. So, to put that in proper perspective, the Jets have two wins against teams that are a combined 1-25 on the season and, against the rest of the league, New York has gone 2-9. I'll gladly take my "chances" with the Dolphins on the road! Miami is the better team, they're fighting for a playoff spot, and they've won 7 of their last 8 games. Also, the Dolphins are on a 6-0 run against teams that currently have a losing record on the season. The only loss in Miami's last 8 games came against the Ravens. The Jets are 0-3 this season (and 3-12 the past 3 seasons combined) in games against teams with a winning record. 10* Top Play MIAMI DOLPHINS Saturday night |
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12-17-16 | Arkansas State +6.5 v. Central Florida | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 28 h 59 m | Show | |
Cure Bowl ATS Crusher - CFB Game #207 Saturday - Rickenbach 8* Arkansas State Red Wolves (+) vs Central Florida Knights in the Cure Bowl @ Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Florida @ 5:30 ET - Certainly the location of this game favors the Knights as this is essentially a home game for Central Florida. However, the Knights faded some as the season went on and I believe they're just "happy to be here" considering they went 0-12 last season! Additionally, UCF could be a little "complacent" here considering that they didn't even have to travel for what is now their 4th bowl in the last 5 years. For the Red Wolves, they certainly are fired up about this opportunity as, even though this is their 6th straight bowl game, head coach Anderson has gone 0-2 SU and ATS in his two appearances and each loss came by a 19 point margin. He'll have his team ready and, unlike the Knights, the Red Wolves were getting stronger as the season went on. In fact, Arkansas State had a horrible start to the season but then rattled off 7 of 8 wins (6-2 ATS) in 8 games against conference opponents. That was good enough for a share of the Sun Belt Conference title and they even dismantled a ranked SBC foe, Troy, 35-3 as a dog of more than a TD. In this bowl match-up the Red Wolves are again under-valued as they are catching nearly a full TD and Arkansas State is 14-5 SU (and 13-6 ATS) when they enter a game off of a win against a conference rival. Central Florida is 0-3 SU and ATS when they enter a match-up with two or more weeks of rest between games. The Knights only averaged 88 rushing yards per game this season while the Red Wolves had a balanced attack with 158 rushing yards and 184 passing yards per game. Central Florida enters this game off of back to back losses to finish the season while the Red Wolves responded to the ending of a 6 game winning streak by blowing out Texas State in the 2nd half of their season finale and that game was on the road. Look for another key in this game to be turnovers. Looking at what each team did over its last 5 games, the Red Wolves turned the ball over just 3 times while the Knights turned it over 11 times. A "running dog" that takes care of the ball is a "dangerous dog" and I'll grab the points in this one. 8* ARKANSAS STATE early Saturday evening |
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12-17-16 | Texas-San Antonio v. New Mexico -7.5 | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 3 m | Show | |
New Mexico Bowl ATS Smash - CFB Game #202 Saturday - Rickenbach 8* New Mexico Lobos (-) vs UTSA Roadrunners @ 2 ET - Texas-San Antonio (preferably referred to as UTSA) is definitely a "feel good story" for head coach Frank Wilson (in his first season) and the Roadrunners (in their first bowl game in their short history as a football program). However, the situation here couldn't be much tougher. Not only are they having to face New Mexico in Albuquerque but the weather conditions are going to be very favorable for the Lobos. Very gusty winds at 25-35 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH possible is what is in the forecast for the new Mexico Bowl. This favors the Lobos in a huge way because they are ground-oriented offense and the passing game will simply be challenging in these weather conditions Saturday afternoon. New Mexico is averaging 310 rushing yards per game this season compared to just 133 rushing yards per game for the Roadrunners. The unique triple option offense of the Lobos is likely to keep the Runners defense off-balance throughout this game and I expect New Mexico to run away with it. Off a bowl loss last year, the Lobos will certainly be focused this year and the last time they were in a bowl ('07) after the losing the prior year ('06), they won the game by a final score of 23 to zip! I am not necessarily expecting that type of domination here but I am expecting a win by double digits and the ground game is going to be the key in this game. As a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points UTSA is 1-4 SU and ATS the past three seasons combined. The Lobos have a long-term mark of 23-14 ATS when playing with two or more weeks of rest between games. 8* NEW MEXICO LOBOS Saturday |
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12-15-16 | Rams +16 v. Seahawks | 3-24 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
Thursday Thrasher - NFL Game #301 Thursday - Rickenbach 8* Los Angeles Rams (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:25 ET - The Rams fired head coach Fisher and Fassel (special teams coordinator) takes over as coach for this one. If that didn't get the attention of the Los Angeles players, nothing will. The fact is that I do expect a strong effort from LA tonight and that will go a long way toward the Rams staying inside this inflated number. Yes, I am well aware of the fact that Seattle is off of a blowout loss at Green Bay (and will be looking to respond) as I actually had the Packers as my Game of the Year in that spot. However, the Seahawks did have 6 turnovers in that game including 5 interceptions. Though winds will be light and no precipitation is expected tonight, it will be quite chilly with temperatures likely dipping into the 20s during this one. The point is that Seattle will want to focus on a ground game that has been bolstered with the return of Lou Rawls and I expect the Seahawks to pound with their rushing attack throughout this game after the 5 picks thrown by Russell Wilson in last week's game. Overall, Wilson simply had a poor game with a number of overthrown receivers too. After this rough effort, and facing a Rams team that has played them tough in recent meetings and will be fired up for this game, look for Seattle to be willing to grind out a win rather than go for the gusto of a huge win by more than two TDs. Simply put, the Seahawks "just need a W" here and that's what I expect to see as the focus of their game plan for this one. With the Rams players ready to step up and play with intensity (especially knowing that everyone is watching since its the lone game on a Thursday night) I look for this game to stay much more competitive than many are expecting. I know it's an ugly dog scenario but it is the right play in this spot the way I expect this one to play out. I know this is a revenge game for Seattle but the points are too big and the Rams have won 4 of the last 5 meetings (SU and ATS) between these clubs. The Seahawks are only 3-6 ATS as a favorite this season. Interestingly, in games 13 through 16 of the season, the Rams have gone 9-1 ATS when they are off of a non-divisional home game and are facing a winning team who is playing with revenge! Seattle, after their non-covering win over Atlanta earlier this season, dropped to 1-6 ATS when they have the Cardinals on deck. Up next for Seattle is Arizona and so I'll gladly test these two trends which combine for a 15-2 (88%) ATS spot favoring the big road dog. 8* LOS ANGELES RAMS Thursday |
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12-12-16 | Ravens +6.5 v. Patriots | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
Bulldog's Best - NFL Game #133 Monday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (+) @ New England Patriots @ 8:30 ET - The Ravens are playing this game with revenge as they lost at New England by 4 points on January 10, 2015 in the divisional round of the playoffs. That was after a hard-fought win at Pittsburgh in the Wild Card round the week before. The situation is a little better this time around for Baltimore as they come into this game with extra rest and off of an easy home blowout win over the Dolphins. Also, the Pats are certainly going to miss TE Rob Gronkowski who is out with a back injury. The Ravens are on a 5-0 ATS run in Monday Night Football. Long-term the Ravens have an amazing 15-6 ATS mark on Monday Night Football. Baltimore is on a 5-1 ATS run against AFC East foes and their long-term mark against the division is a stellar 29-16 ATS. The Patriots are on an 0-3 ATS run in Monday Night Football games. Couple that with the Ravens mark and you have an 8-0 ATS spot favoring Baltimore in this one. Look for them to keep this game very close and I still feel the Patriots are over-rated. Yes, they've been great since QB Tom Brady returned but 6 of their wins came against teams with a losing record on the season and they went just 1-1 against teams with a winning record. The combined record of those 6 losing teams that Brady defeated is 20-57-1. Still impressed by the Pats? The Patriots only went 1-1 against quality teams (beating Pittsburgh without QB Ben Roethlisberger) and losing to the Seahawks and New England was outgained in BOTH of those games. The Ravens should win this one outright but grabbing the points is the way to go as I look for the 8-0 ATS spot to remain perfect. 10* Top Play BALTIMORE RAVENS plus the points Monday Night |
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12-11-16 | Cowboys v. Giants +4 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
NFL Sunday Night Best Bet - NFL Game #132 Sunday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:30 ET - One could look at this game and say all the pressure is on the Giants in this one but truly Dallas knows how important this game is and has to be feeling pressure too. The Cowboys have had a phenomenal season but they also keep winning with some "smoke and mirrors" too as they have had so many close victories and games where a key bounce or key momentum shift always seems to go their way. They were outgained by the Vikings in last week's non-covering win and the reason I mention the importance of this game is that the Boys have the Buccaneers and Lions on deck. Each of those teams enter this week having won 4 straight games. Then the Eagles will host the Cowboys in the final week of the regular season and you know they'd love nothing more than to knock off Dallas if that was a game the Cowboys still needed to lock up the division. The point is that the real pressure is on Dallas here who needs this win to nail down the division. The Giants already beat the Cowboys earlier this season so another win clinches the tie-breaker edge and New York would stay alive in the NFC East race. As it is, the Giants would be content just to make the post-season and they are currently in good position for that so, again, I contend the real pressure here is on Dallas. The Cowboys are starting to feel it as every team is gunning for them every week and after a ridiculous ATS run where everything was breaking their way, they've failed to cover in back to back weeks. Look for this one to make it 3 in a row. The Giants are fired up off of a loss at Pittsburgh and New York had won 6 straight before that loss. The Giants are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. The Cowboys fade has begun and they are 4-7 ATS their last 11 when, in the 2nd half of a season, they are facing a team with a winning record. Dallas is also on an ugly 1-10-1 ATS run as a favorite when facing an NFC foe with a winning percentage of .666 or greater. That makes this a 10-1 (91%) spot to play on the home dog in this one! 10* Top Play NEW YORK GIANTS plus the points Sunday night. |
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12-11-16 | Seahawks v. Packers +3 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Year - NFL Game #128 Sunday - Rickenbach 10* NFL Top Play Green Bay Packers (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 4:25 ET - Most of the snow (up to 6 inches expected) will have already fallen by the time this game kicks off but it will still be a "Green Bay" kind of day which certainly favors the home team. In fact, dating back to 2008, the Packers have won 15 of their last 16 home games! Green Bay is known for thriving on the frozen tundra at this time of year and this is a must win game for them. They are catching Seattle at the ideal time to spring the upset here as a field goal underdog. The Seahawks are off of a huge revenging win versus Carolina last week. The Hawks wanted that game badly as the Panthers knocked them out of the post-season in January. Now Seattle has to try and come up with another big game in back to back weeks and I just don't see that happening on the road against a much hungrier Green Bay team that is fighting for their playoff lives. The Packers, after a rough stretch, have gotten a little healthier and they've settled back in for solid wins in back to back weeks as they have allowed just 13 points each game. Keep in mind, the Seahawks haven't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard on the road this season. In fact, against NFC competition, the Seahawks have averaged only 8.5 points per game in 4 road games! In addition to the 15-1 stat noted above which favors the Packers. We also have a 7-0 spot facing the Seahawks here. Seattle is 0-7 ATS when they are playing with revenge, are off of a double digit cover, and their opponent has a winning percentage of .400 or greater. The Packers beat Seattle last season so this is a revenge spot. The Seahawks covered by 25+ points against the Panthers like week so that piece is in effect too and, also, the Packers are 6-6 on the year so certainly they are above .400 on the season. Green Bay is also 10-1 ATS when they are at home and off of a non-conference game. Lastly, the Packers are 6-1 ATS as dogs of more than 2 points when facing an opponent whose winning percentage is greater than .666 on the season. Combining the angles above (15-1, 7-0, 10-1, 6-1) we have a fantastic 38-3 (93%) ATS spot favoring the Packers. Yes I know the 15-1 angle is a SU angle but Green Bay is the dog here so any SU win will serve as an ATS win for the Packers. Look for them to get this key win in the playoff race as they catch the Seahawks at the perfect time. 10* GREEN BAY PACKERS plus the points on Sunday afternoon |
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12-11-16 | Bengals v. Browns +5.5 | 23-10 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
NFL Game #112 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Cleveland Browns (+) vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 1 ET - The Browns certainly are a bad team but not many teams go 0-16 on a season. That said, if they're going to get 1 win this season, this certainly looks like the most likely spot for it to happen. Cleveland's remaining games feature two road games and a tough home match-up with a feisty San Diego team. With that said, the Browns have had this game circled as "the" opportunity. Cleveland is off of their bye week, they're catching the Bengals off of a big win over the Eagles last week, and the Browns get RG III back under center for this one. The situation simply doesn't get much better than that. Of course we don't need an outright win to get the cash here and, with snow likely during this game, accumulating snow and cold weather conditions should make for exactly the type of "ugly game" where it is nice to have those points with the sizable home dog! The Bengals are on a poor 1-6 ATS run as a road favorite in divisional action. Keep in mind that Cincinnati's home win over the Eagles last week was fueled by 3 Philadelphia interceptions and it was just the 2nd win for the Bengals since September. 8* CLEVELAND BROWNS plus the points early Sunday |
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12-11-16 | Steelers v. Bills +3 | 27-20 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
NFL Game #114 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Buffalo Bills (+) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1 ET - Another one of the many "snow games" scheduled for Sunday as we are likely to see snow in Cleveland, Green Bay, and Buffalo in this week's NFL action. The snow certainly favors the Bills as, not only are they a home dog here, Buffalo is the #1 rushing team in the league. If they establish their ground game in these conditions then the Steelers could struggle to keep up as Pittsburgh relies so heavily on their vaunted passing attack. Even though the Steelers enter this one on a 3-game winning streak, note that Pittsburgh has gone just 5-9 SU (and covered only 4 of 14 games!) when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 games or more. Also, the Bills come into this one as the hungrier team as their 2-game winning streak was snapped in a loss at Oakland last week. Buffalo blew a big lead in that game! The Bills are on a 7-3 ATS run when they face a winning team in the 2nd half of a season. Also, Buffalo is on a 14-8 ATS run as an underdog. The Steelers are on a 1-4 (SU and ATS) run against AFC East foes. This is a bit of a "trap game" for Pittsburgh as they got a key win over a Giants team that was 8-3 on the season and the Steelers then close the regular season with three straight games against divisional foes! Tough spot here for Pittsburgh and I love fading the line move too as this one has been on the rise all week and we're now able to get a full +3 with the home dog. 8* BUFFALO BILLS plus the points early Sunday |
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12-11-16 | Vikings v. Jaguars +3.5 | 25-16 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
NFL Game #120 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Jacksonville Jaguars (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - Jacksonville outgained Denver by over 100 yards last week but lost because they badly lost the turnover battle 3 to 0. The Jaguars have been doing themselves in with turnovers but they continue to statistically outpeform their opponents in most games. Jacksonville hasn't been significantly outgained in a game since October! Yes, I know there is more to a game than just the yardage but, the point is, we're now getting significant line value in fading a Vikings team that certainly has issues of its own. Minnesota is now favored by more than 3 on the road in this game even though the Vikings have lost 6 of their last 7 games and have won of the worst offenses in the league. Minnesota also is 1-4 SU and ATS in road games with a posted total between 38.5 and 42 points. The Vikes are also 1-11 ATS in Games 13 through 16 of a season when they are a road favorite! The Vikings, also in Games 13 through 16 of a season, are 1-11 ATS on the road when facing a team that is off of a SU loss by double digits and that is playing with revenge (Jacksonville lost most recent meeting with Vikes). After playing on a Thursday, Minnesota (even with last week's cover versus Dallas) is just 2-6 ATS the last 8 times. 8* JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS plus the points early Sunday. |
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12-10-16 | Army v. Navy -6 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
Army/Navy Top Play - Rickenbach CFB Game #104 Saturday - 10* Top Play Navy Midshipmen (-) vs Army Black Knights @ Baltimore, Maryland @ 3 ET - I am well aware of the injury issues that Navy just suffered with, amazingly, both Will Worth and Toneo Gulley getting hurt on the same play in the AAC Championship Game against Temple. However, this is still the biggest game of the season for the Midshipmen. In fact, it means so much that Worth even postponed surgery on the broken foot he suffered so that he could be more available to provide as much help as possible to the sophomore QB who will now be stepping in and taking his place for this game. After getting rolled by the Owls last week, Navy is extra fired up for this season's contest. Also, even though they had not rest between games, note that the Midshipmen have been preparing for Army all season long. Their head coach said as much and the team has indeed devoted some time to preparing for the Black Knights each and every week through the season. Also, Army has had so much time off that they actually could be rusty here. Their last game was 3 weeks ago and Army didn't even get tested in that one because it was against Morgan State. Prior to that, the Black Knights allowed 75 points in their two prior games. Note that Army is an ugly 14-35 ATS when they enter a game off of 2 or more weeks of rest. Navy is 103-68 ATS when playing with 6 days or less of rest between games. In other words, much has been made of the rest factor favoring the Black Knights here but there is more than meets the eye here. The Midshipmen step right into this one "game ready" while Army could be rusty. Navy has played a much tougher schedule than Army this season and that is not being factored into this line as much as it should be. The line could easily be 17 if the injuries were not a factor. Even with those the line could be 10 points and that is what this game opened up at in a lot of spots and the line has now moved all the way down to below a TD which is offering great line value considering Navy's long history of winning in recent meetings in this annual match-up. Don't be fooled by Army's defensive stats. That was helped by playing a weak schedule. They will struggle to stop the Midshipmen triple option attack in this one. Keep in mind that Navy had scored 42 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games before losing ugly to the Owls last weekend. Look for the Midshipmen to bounce right back here and put up big points in their biggest game of the season. Army won't be able to keep up. The Black Knights had been held to 21 points in 6 of their last 7 games before blowing away Morgan State. 10* Top Play NAVY MIDSHIPMEN minus the points Saturday |
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12-08-16 | Raiders +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-21 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
RARE Thursday Top - NFL Game #101 Thursday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Oakland Raiders (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:25 ET - The Chiefs continue to win in amazing ways as they won at Atlanta last week despite the Falcons having 32 first downs compared to just 17 for Kansas City. This is a revenge game for Oakland as they lost at home to the Chiefs 26-10 back in mid-October. The Raiders come into this game off of a 38-24 home win versus the Bills but the road team is still 9-2 ATS in Oakland's games this season and my money is on the road dog in this one tonight. The Chiefs are an ugly 3-15 ATS as a home favorite in divisional action. The Raiders are on a 22-8 ATS run as a road dog in divisional action. In games this season where the Oakland line is anywhere between -3 and +3 they have gone 7-1 ATS. Also, in road games with a posted total in a range of 45.5 to 49 points the past three seasons, the Raiders have gone 7-1 ATS. In road games this season Oakland is 5-0 ATS and in their games against teams with a winning record this season the Raiders are 4-0 ATS. The Chiefs are 1-3 ATS at home this season and 1-3 ATS in home games with a posted total in a range of 45.5 to 49 points the past three seasons. Even though the Kansas City defense looks strong based on points allowed this season, keep in mind their yardage allowed ranks them just as low as the Raiders. That said, no true D edge to KC in this one and the edge on offense clearly belongs to Oakland as the Raiders are stronger on the ground and through the air in comparison with the Chiefs. Revenge time in a key AFC West showdown. 10* Top Play OAKLAND RAIDERS plus the points Thursday night |
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12-05-16 | Colts -125 v. Jets | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
MNF Crusher - NFL Game #377 Monday - Rickenbach 8* Indianapolis Colts (-) @ New York Jets @ 8:30 ET - With Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton both listed as probable for this game, the Colts offense is the key edge in this match-up. Keep in mind, even though Indianapolis lost by 21 at Pittsburgh on Thanksgiving Night, they did not have Luck for that game and were also missing some key personnel on defense. Even in a tough situation like that, the Colts did have more first downs than the Steelers in that game and they were only outgained by 59 yards. The 2 INTs were a difference-maker but now Luck is back for this revenge game against the Jets. Last year Indianapolis hosted the Jets (also on Monday Night Football) and Indy lost 20-7 to New York in a turnover-fueled loss. It is time for the Colts to get some payback tonight and Indianapolis is also invigorated by the Texans loss yesterday as they will be hosting Houston next week. The Colts now very much control their own destiny in the AFC South and they know that includes a "must win" tonight at New York. The Jets are on a 2-7 run and all 7 of those losses have been by at least 3 points. The line here is only in the range of -2 on the Colts and actually the low money line on this game makes that the best option in this one for backing Indy. As a road fave of 3 points or less the Colts have gone 4-0 SU the last 3 seasons and the Jets are 0-3 SU this season. Under Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis has gone 14-2 ATS when off of a SU loss. Under Pagano, the Colts are also 11-3 ATS when facing an opponent off of back to back SU losses. Add all of the above up and you have combined systems of 32-5 (87%) favoring the small road fave in this one. 8* INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Monday Night |
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12-04-16 | Panthers +7.5 v. Seahawks | 7-40 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - NFL Game #375 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Carolina Panthers (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:30 ET - This is a revenge spot for Seattle since the Seahawks didn't get a shot at the Super Bowl last season because they lost to the Panthers at Carolina in January. However, revenge can be over-valued and I feel strongly that is precisely the case here. The Seahawks schedule has been brutal over the past 5 weeks. They were home against Buffalo to start November but then went all the way to the east coast to face New England, then flew across the country to host the Eagles, then flew back to the east coast again to face Tampa Bay and then came back across the country again to host Carolina this week. This is catching up with the Seahawks and I know that last week's loss to the Buccaneers certainly had a lot to with this being a lookahead spot. But it also had to do with all the travel and big games likely catching up with Seattle and it was the 3rd time in the last 6 games that their total offense has been held to 278 yards or less! Now Seattle has to deal with a Carolina defense that, prior to last week's poor effort at Oakland, had allowed 20 points or less in 4 straight games! The Panthers are fired up after rallying back to take the lead on the Raiders only to lose late and though it is the Seahawks with revenge in this match-up, keep in mind it is Carolina who is fighting hard right now to stay alive in the playoff race in the NFC. The Panthers are on a 17-8 ATS run as a road dog and I love having them at more than 7 in this match-up. In games 9 through 12 of a season, the Panthers have gone 8-1 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 35 points or more. The Seahawks may get their revenge but I expect this game to be decided by a single possession as it should be an absolutely dogfight given the situation for both clubs. 8* CAROLINA |
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12-04-16 | Bucs v. Chargers -3.5 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
Non-Conf Game of the Month - NFL Game #370 Sunday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play San Diego Chargers (-) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 4:25 ET - Make no mistake about it, that was a huge win for the Bucs last week as they beat Seattle. However, it's important to consider that the Seahawks were clearly flat for that game. Not only were the Hawks off of a big win over the Eagles (and upset of the Patriots the prior week), they also had a huge game on deck. Seattle was clearly looking ahead to their game this week (an opportunity for playoff revenge) against Carolina. With that said, one can't totally take everything away from the Buccaneers win over the Seahawks last week but, the point is, one should definitely keep it in perspective. Now Tampa Bay is clearly the one that is in a flat spot here as they are off of a huge upset win at home and now had to travel coast to coast to take on a tough Chargers team that is clearly better than their 5-6 record on the season. San Diego has had some tough, tight losses so many are reluctant to back them and that is helping to give late season line value to the Bolts in a spot like this as the line has held at 3.5 in most spots. While both teams have been "up and down" on defense this season, the offensive edge in this match-up clearly belongs to Philip Rivers and company and the Chargers have averaged 32 points per game at home this season while the Bucs are averaging only 21.6 points per game on the road this year. San Diego is 4-1 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record this season and Tampa Bay's recent "surge" on defense has been helped by catching Seattle in a flat spot (and Seahawks offense has struggled at times this season) and facing the the Chiefs and Bears (both have struggled on offense this season). Prior to that, the Bucs allowed 73 points in their two prior games (against Oakland and Atlanta) and those games were in Tampa Bay. In other words, don't be surprised if the Chargers put up a bunch of points on the over-rated Bucs Sunday! 10* Top Play SAN DIEGO CHARGERS |
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12-04-16 | Broncos -3 v. Jaguars | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
Early System Smash - NFL Game #351 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Denver Broncos (-) @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - The Broncos are fired up after losing in overtime to the Chiefs last week despite having a yardage edge of 464-273 in that game. Even though QB Trevor Siemian is likely to miss this game, Paxton Lynch has already logged some NFL time and he'll do just fine here. The Jaguars have lost 6 straight games and 5 of the 6 defeats have come by at least 5 points. 5 of Denver's 7 wins have come by at least 8 points so if you're expecting the Broncos to win this you should also be expecting them to cover the short number. That said, I definitely like Denver off of a loss and facing a Jacksonville team that is only 2-9 on the season plus has suffered 6 straight losses. The Broncos have won all 3 of their non-divisional road games this season and have gone 3-0 ATS in those games. Denver is also on an 11-5 ATS run when off of a SU loss. The Jaguars are on a long-term ugly 10-24 ATS run as a home dog. Jacksonville is 0-4 SU and ATS in their home games this season. The Broncos are 6-0 ATS when they are on the road and facing a team with a winning percentage under the .250 mark. Combining the above perfect marks in favor of Denver and those against the Jags and you have a 13-0 ATS mark in favor of the Broncos. I'll take it! 8* DENVER |
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12-04-16 | Lions v. Saints OVER 52 | Top | 28-13 | Loss | -114 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
Total of the Week - NFL Game #359/360 Sunday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions @ 1 ET - This total has dropped from as high as a 54 down to as low as a 52 and this is offering exceptional line value with the over. I completely understand the line move because the Lions have actually stayed under the total in 5 straight games. However, Detroit's last 4 games have been against Houston, Jacksonville, and Minnesota (twice). That means they have faced a top 5 defense (based on yards allowed) in 4 straight games! Now the Lions get to take advantage of facing one of the worst defenses in the league as they take on the Saints. Of course the problem for Detroit is they are unlikely to stop the high-powered attack of New Orleans in the Superdome. At home this season the Saints are averaging 34 points and 468 yards per game! With this line at 7, my expectation is a 35-28 (or 34-27) type game here and that's why the over is my play here. Note that the over is 4-1 this season (and 17-9 the last 3 seasons) when New Orleans is a favorite. Also, in Saints home games with a posted total of 49.5 or more, the over is a long-term 34-19. In their Thanksgiving Day win over the Vikings, the Lions allowed only 13 points which is the lowest point total they've allowed all season. Of course the Vikes offense is putrid and this opens up another key stat too. The Lions are 12-1 to the over when they are off of a game where they allowed 13 points or less. This is the 1st time it's happened this season and I'll take advantage as Detroit goes from facing one of the league's best defenses to facing one of its worst. 10* Top Play OVER in New Orleans |
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12-03-16 | Penn State +3 v. Wisconsin | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Game #333 Saturday - 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) vs Wisconsin Badgers in Big Ten Championship Game @ Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN @ 8 ET - Amazingly this is already the 4th time the Badgers have been in the Big Ten Championship Game and this is only the 6th such game as these started in 2011. The Nittany Lions are full of hunger as this is their first appearance ever in this game. The favorite has only gone 1-4 ATS in these games and I like the value here with the Nittany Lions (the better team in my opinion) getting a full field goal on a neutral field. Yes the Badgers have the better defense but Penn State certainly has the better offense and they are on fire and full of momentum right now. PSU has won 8 straight games and their offense has averaged 46.4 points per game in their last 5 games. The Badgers have won 6 straight games but their offense has been held to 23 points or less in 7 of their 12 games this season. The Nittany Lions defense has held 3 of their last 4 opponents to 14 points or less - an average of 8.7 points per game in those 3 games. The big win over Ohio State earlier this season gives Penn State the confidence to take this game over the Badgers. Penn State's rushing defense has been very strong the last 5 games with an average of only 68.8 yards allowed per game! That should help force the Badgers to the air in this one and Wiscy's passing attack has averaged only 115.4 passing yards per game their last 5 games. Look for the Lions to win this one through the air as that aspect of the PSU offense has gotten stronger as the season has gone on. The Nittany Lions are averaging 284.4 passing yards per game their last 5 games. 10* Top Play PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS |
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12-03-16 | Arkansas State v. Texas State +24 | 36-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
Situational Smash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Game #320 Saturday - 8* Texas State Bobcats (+) vs Arkansas State Red Wolves @ 7:30 ET - Nothing I can say about Texas State is going to help you to get excited about making a wager on a team that is 2-9 this season and has gone only 4-7 ATS. However, what I will tell you is that is there are some key situational edges working in their favor here. Of course it is the final home game of the careers for a number of Bobcats seniors including their QB. They are undoubtedly going to bring a strong effort tonight as they look to go out a winner. Of course the chances of an upset win are slim as you can tell by the number posted on this game but Texas State is getting some help from mother nature today. I reside in the south central Texas area and it has been raining heavily since yesterday and this is expected to be an all-weekend event with the rain. This weather is very likely to limit the Arkansas State offense and bad weather almost always favors a big underdog who is just trying to "hang around" in a game and I expect that to be the case here with the Bobcats. They are catching the Red Wolves in a flat spot. While it is true that Arkansas State can still get a share of the SBC Title with a win here, they would have had a shot at the outright conference title if they had just won last week at UL-Lafayette. That loss to the Ragin' Cajuns really let the air out of the sails of Arky State and they will likely be a little flat here. It's hard to get up for a game after the disappointment of blowing your shot at an outright title. Also, the home team has won and covered all 3 all-time meetings between these schools. The points are huge here when you consider that the Red Wolves are only averaging 26.2 points per game this season. This is not an offensive juggernaut, this is not good weather, and this is not a good situation for Arkansas State after last week's disappointment. Add it all up and you have the perfect spot (literally) for the ugly dog to get the job done here as the home team improves to 4-0 ATS all-time in this series. 8* TEXAS STATE Saturday evening |
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12-03-16 | Baylor +17.5 v. West Virginia | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Game #307 Saturday - 8* Baylor Bears (+) @ West Virginia Mountaineers @ 3:30 ET - This is simply a case of a revenging team getting over-valued. This line was closer to just two touchdowns earlier this week but has now climbed up above the 17 mark as everyone looks for West Virginia to get revenge in a big way for last season's 62-38 loss at Baylor. While I certainly do expect the Mountaineers to get their revenge, I expect a strong effort from the Bears here as they look to finish the regular season on the right foot under interim head coach Jim Grobe who is a West Virginia native. He'll have his team ready to go here and what is being under-valued about Baylor is the fact that QB Zach Smith is off of a big game last week as he threw for nearly 400 yards with 3 TDs against just 1 pick. The West Virginia defense has honestly been atrocious in recent games. Looking at their last 4 games, the Mountaineers have given up an average of 506 yards per game even though two of those games were against the two worst offenses in the Big 12: Kansas and Iowa State. The point is that even if West Virginia does pile up big points in this game, their defense has shown no signs that would indicate that they are going to shut down a Bears offense that, even with Smith at QB, is plenty capable of moving the ball very well. It's been an ugly season for Baylor but the Bears are 8-3 SU and ATS in December games and Grobe and Company want this game badly. The Mountaineers are on a 6-11 ATS run in December games and also 6-11 ATS their last 17 games against teams with a winning record. 8* BAYLOR BEARS Saturday afternoon |
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12-02-16 | Colorado +7.5 v. Washington | Top | 10-41 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
PAC-12 Championship Best Bet - Rickenbach CFB Game #305 Friday - 10* Top Play Colorado Buffaloes (+) vs Washington Huskies @ Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA @ 9 ET - It is has been an amazing season for both of these teams but, since it wasn't expected for the Buffaloes and was expected for the Huskies, Colorado is clearly being under-rated in this match-up with Washington for the PAC-12 Championship. The Buffaloes are a TD+ underdog even though these teams are statistically very nearly equal and even though Colorado played arguably the tougher schedule. As the favorite, all the pressure is on the Huskies in this one and I expect the Buffaloes to be the more relaxed team and the result will be Colorado playing their "A game" in this one which certainly should be enough for at least the cover. Much has changed since the last time these two teams met but it is still noteworthy that the 15 point margin of victory for Washington also is help influencing market perception for this one and, keep in mind, the Huskies were actually outgained by the Buffaloes in that game! Washington is off of a big blowout win over rival Washington State in the battle for the Apple Cup last week. However, prior to that win the Huskies had failed to cover 6 of their last 9. The Buffaloes are off of a non-covering win versus Utah but previously had cover 10 of 11 games on the season. Also, Colorado is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season as an underdog. Last but certainly not least, here is another stat you will like. This line is currently as high as an 8 in some spots and when the Huskies are favored by 8 points or more against a team with a winning record after Game 5 of a season, Washington has gone 0-12 ATS (including 0-2 ATS this season). The Huskies already suffered an ATS loss in this role against Utah this season and they also suffered a SU and ATS loss in this role against USC as well. They are in for a dogfight here with a fired up Buffaloes team that is a very confident punch and would love nothing more than to spoil any playoff hopes the Huskies had. 10* COLORADO BUFFALOES plus the big points on Friday night |
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12-01-16 | Cowboys v. Vikings +3 | Top | 17-15 | Win | 107 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Game #302 Thursday - 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:25 ET - The Cowboys bubble is about to burst and I am going to be along for the ride. Their long ATS streak (some miracle covers in there for sure) finally ended on Thanksgiving Day and now I expect their SU winning streak to end this Thursday. Certainly I will grab the available points with the Vikings but I fully expect the outright win. The Cowboys defense ranks 6th for points allowed but 20th for yardage allowed. Stating that differently, the Dallas defense has been lucky! No two ways about it the Cowboys weakness is their defense and the Boys were outgained by a 505-353 margin in last week's non-covering win over the Redskins. The Vikings defense ranks #3 for yardage and #2 for points this season. Minnesota's D is going to "bring it" on Thursday night after hearing all week about the Cowboys and how great of a team they are. The Vikes are relishing this opportunity to get after Dak Prescott and to also stuff Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys are one of the worst teams in the league at getting pressure on the quarterback and, when Sam Bradford is not pressured, the Vikings QB can run a decent offense for Minnesota. Certainly they can get the job done against an over-confident and porous Dallas D that is one of the worst in the league against the pass. The Vikes are on a 9-3 ATS run as a home dog and are fired up after the way they lost at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day with a late INT by Bradford in the wrong end of the field. It was an egregious error that he and the Vikes want to atone for here. Dallas is on a 1-6 ATS run in Thursday games. Minnesota is 11-3 ATS when off of a divisional game. The Vikings are also 12-4 ATS when they are a dog facing a team with a winning record. The Vikes are also 13-2 ATS as dogs of less than 6 points when facing a team that is off of a SU win. 10* Top Play MINNESOTA VIKINGS Thursday Night |
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11-28-16 | Packers v. Eagles -4 | 27-13 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #276 Monday - 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:30 ET - The Packers are struggling badly with 4 straight losses as Green Bay has given up an average of 38.3 points per game. Traveling to face an Eagles team that is off of a road loss but is 4-0 SU and ATS at home this season isn't going to help matters for the Pack. Philadelphia has allowed a TOTAL of only 38 points in their 4 home games this season whereas Green Bay is allowing an AVERAGE of 38 points per game in their last 4 games. As you can see, this is a case of two teams that, though close in the standings, are truly in two different places right now. As an away dog, the Packers are on a 2-9 ATS run. As a non-divisional home favorite, the Eagles are on a 7-3 ATS run. Philadelphia also has revenge from a 53-20 loss at Green Bay two years ago. That was a turnover-fueled defeat as the Eagles were actually only outgained by 46 yards in that game. Green Bay comes into this game having not forced a single turnover in 3 of their last 4 games. Conversely, the Eagles are off of a rare game at Seattle where they did not force a turnover but they forced an average of 2 per game in their 4 prior games. Look for Philly to improve to 5-1 (SU and ATS) in Monday Night games as they take advantage of hosting a reeling Packers team whose defense has a yard per point average of only 12.9 which ranks them near the very bottom of the league. Eagles D is near the top with an 18.0 ypp. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-27-16 | Chiefs v. Broncos -3 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Sunday Night Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #272 Sunday - 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (-) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:30 ET - The Chiefs are not nearly as good as their record shows. In fact, I am kicking myself a bit for not playing against them last week but I felt so strongly about this fantastic situation that was coming up that I decided to hold off. But the fact is that, of the 32 NFL teams, the Chiefs rank a solid 5th for points allowed but 25th for yardage allowed. As you can see from those numbers, the Kansas City defense has been fortunate - to put it mildly! I expect the fade that started with last week's home loss to Tampa Bay (KC was outgained by nearly 100 yards) to continue through the remainder of this season. The Chiefs are taking on a Denver defense that ranks 5th in the league for yardage allowed and also the Broncos are well-rested as they are off of their bye week last week. To top it off - in terms of how strong this situation is - Denver also big-time revenge for the home loss to the Chiefs last November. The Broncos now will be facing Kansas City twice in a span of 5 weeks but they had to wait over a year to get this opportunity at revenge. The Broncos are known for dominating the Chiefs and had won 7 straight in the series (average margin of victory was 9 points) before last year's November home loss to Kansas City. The Broncos are 18-4 ATS when playing with at least 2 weeks of rest between games. The Chiefs are 1-9 ATS when they are off of an outright loss as a favorite and are then facing an opponent with revenge. That puts a 27-5 ATS (84%) mark in favor of the home fave in this one. The Broncos have been able to heal up over the bye week while the Chiefs have some significant injuries on both sides of the ball that are impacting them for this game. Look for a home rout in this one as the revenge angle is a big one here. 10* Top Play DENVER BRONCOS minus the points on Sunday night |
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11-27-16 | Panthers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #269 Sunday - 10* Top Play Carolina Panthers (+) @ Oakland Raiders @ 4:25 ET - Tremendous line value here as the Panthers, though they did hang on for the win last Thursday against the Saints, blew a big lead. On the other side of this equation, you have the Raiders who rallied for a very fortunate win against the Texans on Monday night. So, not only does Carolina have extra rest in front of this game and Oakland is on short rest, you also have a situation where the perception is flawed here based upon the way the games involving these two teams played out in the latter stages last week. Playing the road team in Raiders games this season would have netted you a 9-1 (90%) record thusfar. The road team in Oakland games just continues to get the cash nearly every week. That factor also bodes well with the fact that Carolina has gone 16-8 ATS as a road dog in their last 24 games. Even though the Panthers offense didn't perform well last week their defense certainly continued it's recent resurgence and Carolina's defense ranks them a significant edge over the Raiders defense. Oakland's D is among the worst in the league while the Panthers have allowed just 326.5 yards per game in their last 4 games. After big games in back to back weeks (division rival Denver and then a MNF game versus a division-leading Texans team), the Raiders defense is likely to fall flat here after rising to the occasion in back to back weeks. A lot of points are expected here (per the odds makers) and Oakland is 1-10 ATS in home games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more. Also, a straight-up Carolina win is not needed here to get the cash but note that the Panthers are actually 9-0 SU when they are off of a win against a division rival. Also, in games 9 through 12 of a season, Oakland is 2-18 ATS when they are facing a non-divisional opponent who is off of a home game. That means we have combined factors of 37-3 (93%) working in favor of the road dog in this one. I'll take it. 10* Top Play CAROLINA PANTHERS plus the points Sunday afternoon |
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11-27-16 | 49ers +7.5 v. Dolphins | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
Early Ugly Underdog - Rickenbach NFL Game #261 Sunday - 8* San Francisco 49'ers (+) @ Miami Dolphins @ 1 ET - Only the Browns have been worse than the 49'ers this season but I see significant line value in this spot in Week 12 given the situation. Miami has won 5 straight games and they are off of back to back wins on the West Coast at Los Angeles and San Diego. Now the Dolphins come all the way back east to return home for just a single game as they have a road trip to a tougher foe (Baltimore) on deck. I just can't see Miami being fully focused in this spot and note that each of their last 4 wins have come by 7 points or less. The Dolphins have averaged only 283.7 yards of offense per game in their last 3 games and they'll have trouble getting much of a margin against a Niners team that has started to move the ball better as QB Colin Kaepernick has started to get in rhythm after the bye week. San Francisco's D is certainly still an issue but Miami's offense has not been impressive of late. The Dolphins are known for overlooking weaker opponents at this time of year as they have gone 2-8 ATS when facing teams with a losing record in the second half of a season. Miami is also 0-7 ATS as a non-conference home favorite of more than 4 points. Also, the Fish have gone 1-9 ATS when, in games 9 through 12 of a season, they have a winning record and are off of a SU win as an underdog and are now a home favorite. This truly is a classic flat spot. As for San Francisco, the 49'ers are 10-2 ATS as a non-divisional road dog of more than 3 points when they are off of a non-divisional game. Taking all of the above into consideration, that means we have combined systems of 34-5 (87%) ATS in favor of the Niners in this one. I'll take it. 8* SAN FRANCISCO plus the big points in early Sunday NFL action |
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11-27-16 | Chargers -135 v. Texans | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
Early Chalk Smash - Rickenbach NFL Game #251 Sunday - 8* San Diego Chargers (-) @ Houston Texans @ 1 ET - The point spread on this game is in the 2 to 3 point range and yet the Chargers on the money line are only in the -135 range so my advice on this one is to play it on the money line if you can. I could probably sum up this write-up with two things. One is that the Texans are 5-0 at home and the Chargers are 1-4 on the road this season and yet Houston is a home dog...think about that one for a second! Secondly, the key match-up edge is Philip Rivers over Brock Osweiler! So, the point of the above is that nothing is that SDG (1-4 away) is favored on the road over HOU (5-0 home) with good reason. Don't fall for the trap and take the Texans who have one of the worst QBs in the NFL. Yes, Osweiler and the Texans should have beaten Oakland in Mexico Monday Night (and I liked them in that situation) but this is a bad spot for them on a short week and facing a hungry Chargers team coming off of their bye week. Rivers and Company can't wait to get back on the field after their turnover-plagued home loss to Miami two weeks ago. San Diego had a 29-17 edge in first downs in that loss to the Dolphins. The Texans are 1-4 ATS and SU as a home dog of 3 points or less. Houston also is on a 2-4 ATS and SU run against AFC West opponents while San Diego has an absolutely incredible long-term mark of 27-4 ATS in their games against teams from the AFC South. The Chargers head coach Mike McCoy is 10-0 ATS when his team has a sub-.500 record and is of a SU loss and is now facing a team with a winning record. That system fits here. Also, another perfect ATS system is in place here. In games 9 through 12 of a season, San Diego is 10-0 ATS when they are facing a non-divisional opponent that is off of a SU loss but has a winning record on the season. That means we have a combined 20-0, 100% ATS factor in favor of the road fave in this one. Lay it. 8* SAN DIEGO minus the short number in early Sunday action |
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11-26-16 | Wyoming v. New Mexico OVER 68 | Top | 35-56 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
#1 CFB TOTAL - Rickenbach CFB Game #221/222 Saturday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Mexico Lobos vs Wyoming Cowboys @ 10:15 ET - These teams are a combined 17-5 to the over this season and there is no reason for that strong trending to continue Saturday. In fact, with Air Force upsetting Boise State yesterday, it means that Wyoming (now crowed as the MWC Mountain Division Champ) is less likely to bring an 'intense' effort on defense to this match-up with New Mexico. The fact is that even if the Cowboys did 'bring it' on defense against the Lobos it may not help anyway. Wyoming has been scorched for 455.4 yards per game this season. However, New Mexico's defense is not anything special either. The Lobos were gouged for over 400 yards on the ground last week. Prior to that poor effort, the New Mexico pass defense was shredded for 282 yards per game through the air by Utah State and Nevada. None of the last 5 teams the Lobos have faced have winning records either so they could really get torched now by a strong Wyoming offense. The last time that New Mexico faced a solid team (Air Force) the game totaled 85 points. With the Cowboys now playing loose and relaxed in this game and the Lobos happy to put on a 'show' at home, there should be points galore in this game. The Cowboys are on an 11-4 run to the over in games where they are a road favorite. Wyoming is 3-0 to the over this month and the Lobos are 5-0 to the over in home games this season. I'll gladly test the combined 8-0, 100% mark with this solid situation! 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Mexico Saturday night |
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11-26-16 | Utah +10 v. Colorado | Top | 22-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
#1 CFB SIDE - Rickenbach CFB Game #193 Saturday - 10* Top Play Utah Utes (+) @ Colorado Buffaloes @ 7:30 ET - The Utes are off of a home upset loss versus Oregon but clearly got caught looking ahead to this game. Conversely, Colorado is actually off of a big win over Washington State last week as they continue to be a 'covering machine' this season. The Buffaloes also have been a 'covering machine' in this series as they are 5-0 ATS against the Utes. However, there are two keys with where the value lies in this match-up. All 5 of the meetings have been decided by 7 points or less AND Utah has been the straight-up winner in 4 of the 5 meetings. With that said, there is clearly value with the Utes as a double digit dog in this match-up. Colorado must win this game to secure a spot in the PAC-12 Championship game while the Utes clearly would love nothing more than to play the role of spoiler here. Utah is 8-3 ATS the past three seasons (including 2-0 ATS this season) as an underdog. Also, looking at long-term numbers, the Utes are an incredible 9-2 ATS when they are a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points! While it has been an incredible season for the Buffaloes, only 4 of their last 9 games have been wins by more than 10 points. Hence, you can see the value here with the double digit dog Utes whom, statistically, are certainly not far behind the Buffs. Also, Colorado is still only 5-13 ATS their last 18 games as a favorite against PAC-12 foes. The Utes are 6-0, 100% PERFECT ATS when they are off of a SU loss which was also an ATS loss and now facing a team that is off of a SU win that was also an ATS win. Look for that system to go to 7-0 in what is going to be a fiercely contested PAC-12 battle. 10* Top Play UTAH UTES plus the BIG points on Saturday evening |
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11-26-16 | Nevada +9.5 v. UNLV | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
Underdog Shocker - Rickenbach CFB Game #179 Saturday - 8* Nevada Wolf Pack (+) @ UNLV Rebels @ 4 ET - The Rebels are down three starting wide receivers as they lost Devonte Boyd a few weeks ago. Of course that has made UNLV rather one-dimensional as they have to run the ball. Granted, that looks like a huge edge in this match-up because Nevada struggles to stop the run but, keep in mind, this is a big rivalry game and the Wolf Pack are likely to bring their best defensive effort of the season. That said, if Nevada is able to focus on the run that could make this a tough spot for the Rebels to get any kind of margin in this game. Another factor is that UNLV also struggles against the run and Nevada got their run game going with over 200 yards last week. The road team has won and covered each of the last 3 meetings in this rivalry series and that makes this a revenge spot for the Wolf Pack who lost at home to UNLV last year. Nevada has won 9 of the 11 meetings and this line is truly inflated on the Rebels as it has gone from less than a touchdown to very nearly a double digit spread as of early game day morning. I'll grab the corresponding line value with the revenging dog here. Nevada is on a 7-3 ATS run in November games. The Rebels have a long-term reputation for struggling as a favorite - 24-40 ATS! The Wolf Pack are off of an outright upset win as a TD underdog versus Utah State last week and the Pack has gone 5-0 ATS when they are on the road off of a SU win as an underdog. The Rebels are 0-5 SU the last 5 times they have hosted the Wolf Pack and, of course, if they don't win this game they don't cover and that means we're testing systems that are a combined 10-0, 100% ATS for this rivalry match-up. 8* NEVADA WOLF PACK plus the big points Saturday afternoon |
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11-26-16 | Illinois +17 v. Northwestern | 21-42 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #155 Saturday - 8* Illinois Illini (+) @ Northwestern Wildcats @ Noon ET - Of course the 2-9 Illini are not a very good football team. However, here you have a Wildcats team laying 17 points even though they are only averaging 24 points per game on the season. Also, Northwestern has been held to 24 points or less in 8 of their 12 games this season. While it is true that the Wildcats need this win for bowl eligibility, it is also true that Illinois is seeking revenge for a 24-14 loss to Northwestern last season. The Illini averaged 26 points per game in their first 6 games this season but they've faced 5 straight tough defenses since then and have struggled. Look for Illinois to now take advantage of facing a Wildcats defense that has shown some holes at times this season and only ranks 60th (out of 128) in the nation for yards allowed per game. This game will be much closer than many are expecting as the Illini give it their all in a game they know will be their season finale. Certainly Illinois would love nothing more than to also make sure it's rival Northwestern's season finale as well as the Illini could play spoiler and end the Wildcats bowl hopes. Illinois is 7-3 ATS when they enter a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games. Northwestern is 1-3 ATS as a favorite in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. The Wildcats are also 2-6 ATS when off of an outright loss as a favorite and 2-14 ATS when they are a double digit home favorite and facing a team that is off of a SU loss by double digits. The above systems combine for a powerful 30-8 (79%) ATS mark which I'll gladly put to the test here. 8* ILLINOIS ILLINI plus the BIG points early at Noon ET Saturday |
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11-25-16 | Cincinnati v. Tulsa OVER 62.5 | Top | 37-40 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #125/126 Friday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 8:30 ET - Cincinnati has not played well at all on offense in recent games but QB Hayden Moore now has a couple games under his belt since he returned and I expect him to have a big game against a weak Tulsa defense. The Golden Hurricane are off of a solid effort at Central Florida but now that they know they can't win the West Division of the AAC, it will be tough for the Tulsa defense to bring another solid effort here. That said, this is a Tulsa D that, prior to the UCF game, had allowed an average of 35 points per game in their 9 prior games! The Bearcats will enjoy some success against this defense just like they did in last year's 49-38 win over Tulsa. This should be another wild, high-scoring game but this time it will be the Golden Hurricane holding the upper hand in terms of production on offense. The Bearcats defense looks like they had a decent showing last week in terms of yardage but that's because Memphis simply got up big early and then took their foot off of the gas. Tulsa, playing their season finale and seeking revenge, will keep their foot on the gas all the way through this one. Keep in mind, the Golden Hurricane like to play at a fast pace as their average of 83.9 plays per game on offense ranks them 4th out of the 128 FBS teams! Tulsa's offense had one bad game this season (against Ohio State - who doesn't?) but has averaged 45.4 points per game in their other 10 games this season! The over is 4-2 in Bearcats games where they are an underdog in a range of 21.5 to 31 points. The over is 12-4 in Golden Hurricane home games. Also, great weather expected here with chilly temps but dry conditions with little to no wind at all. 10* OVER the total in Tulsa Friday |
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11-25-16 | Nebraska +2.5 v. Iowa | 10-40 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #121 Friday - 8* Nebraska Cornhuskers (+) @ Iowa Hawkeyes @ 3:30 ET - Though it would take a big upset (Minnesota over Wisconsin Saturday), the fact is that the Cornhuskers are still alive for having a shot at the Big Ten title game. That said, look for another big effort from the Huskers here after they dominated Minnesota last week. This week Nebraska gets a boost with the expected return of QB Tommy Armstrong too. We are getting line value here because of Iowa's win over Michigan a few weeks back. If you look at the rest of the Hawkeyes results this season they only went 2-3 in their other 5 home games. Overall, Iowa doesn't have any other wins against quality opponents and they even lost to North Dakota State and Northwestern this season. Now the Hawkeyes face a revenge-minded Nebraska team that has played a tougher schedule than Iowa has this season. The Huskers are looking to avenge last season's 28-20 home loss to the Hawkeyes. Iowa is off of back to back strong efforts on defense but prior to that they had allowed 508.7 yards per game in their 3 prior games! The D will be a difference-maker here because Nebraska has given up 337 yards or less in 6 of their last 7 games! The Cornhuskers are on an 8-3 ATS run as an underdog while Iowa is on a 7-13 ATS run in home games. The Big Red get their revenge here and stay alive for a shot at the Big Ten West division. 8* NEBRASKA plus the points Friday |
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11-25-16 | Houston v. Memphis OVER 61.5 | 44-48 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #135/136 Friday - 8* OVER the total in Memphis Tigers vs Houston Cougars @ Noon ET - I do expect Riley Ferguson to start at QB for the Tigers but even if Jason Stewart gets the call he is actually more of a rushing threat and that can make a quite a difference with the Memphis offense running their read-option plays. Either way, the Tigers will be fine at QB and they could catch the Cougars defense napping here. Houston is off of their huge upset win over Louisville last week and there is no way they'll be able to bring the same intensity here. That spells trouble against a Memphis offense that is averaging nearly 40 points per game this season while averaging over 450 yards per game as well! The good news for Cougars fans is that their team should easily move the ball today. Don't be fooled by the Memphis defensive numbers against Cincinnati last week. Against poor AAC teams like Cincy, SMU, and Tulane the Tigers numbers on defense have looked good. But they now face an upper echelon offense and in the other 5 games Memphis has played since October 1st, the Tigers defense has given up 592.4 yards per game! In other words, the Cougars should roll right through the Tigers D as Houston's offense has put up at least 30 points in 9 of their 10 games this season and they now face one of the weaker defenses in the conference. The over is 9-4 when Memphis is a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. Overall, as an underdog of any size this season, the over is a perfect 3-0 in Tigers games. 8* OVER the total in Memphis Friday |
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11-24-16 | Steelers v. Colts +9 | Top | 28-7 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
TNF Top Play - Rickenbach NFL Game #112 Thursday - 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (+) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:30 ET - No one wants the Colts here and everyone is lining up on the Steelers because of the Andrew Luck situation at QB. Of course having Scott Tolzien at QB is a huge stepdown from having Luck under center but, as a contrarian, I love fading the line move in situations like this. The Colts are now very nearly a double digit home dog in this game and they are going to bring a huge effort as they try to rally around the absence of Luck tonight. So many times, in the first game without a star player, you will see the rest of the team step up and other individuals tend to play their best games of the year in situations like this. Look for the Colts to indeed "rally the troops" for this one and they certainly have plenty of motivation. Not only is this the Thanksgiving Day primetime game under the lights, the Colts were demolished at Pittsburgh each of the past two seasons so Indianapolis is very happy to have this game at home and have a shot at home revenge after getting embarrassed by the Steelers each of the past two seasons. Also, in Sunday's win over the Titans, the Colts defense hung tough (and their D has improved in recent games) and coupling that with the Texas loss to Oakland Monday Night and Indianapolis is rejuvenated by their current positioning in the AFC South. The Colts have a fantastic long-term history in Thursday games with a 13-1 SU mark and 11-1 ATS mark. Also, the Steelers are off of a divisional win (albeit against the lowly Browns) and Pittsburgh is only 3-6 SU and 1-5 ATS when off of a win over a divisional foe. The highly motivated Colts will be flying all over the field in this one and I see this game being a one-possession game all the way through which means huge value with the big points. 10* Top Play INDIANAPOLIS |
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11-24-16 | LSU -6.5 v. Texas A&M | 54-39 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Turkey Day CFB Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #113 Thursday - 8* LSU Tigers (-) @ Texas A & M Aggies @ 7:30 ET - The Aggies want this game badly as the Tigers have held the upper hand in this series ever since Texas A & M entered the SEC. However, this is not a good spot for the Aggies to finally "break through" against the Tigers because LSU is fired up off of a loss and interim head coach Orgeron has his team ready to go. The Tigers are fired up after the loss to Florida last week. Against the Gators, LSU was simply done in by a couple of turnovers because they did actually outgain Florida by over 150 yards in that game! The Tigers have a fantastic defense and that gives them a huge edge over the Aggies who are not the same team without Trevor Knight at QB. Now word is that Knight may start Thursday but how much of that is due to him being ready and how much is due to Jake Hubenak also injuring his shoulder in his most recent game? Keep that in mind because the Aggies are going up against a tremendous defense that will inflict some big hits in this game! Even though RB Leonard Fournette is out for LSU in this one, the Tigers still have plenty of firepower to get the job done against A & M in this one. The Tigers are off of their 4th loss of the season. After their first three they responded with a win all 3 times going 3-0 and winning the games by at least 21 points all 3 times. The Aggies are in an 0-7 ATS tailspin and the Tigers are on a 7-3 ATS run as a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. Texas A & M is also on a 4-12 ATS run in their games against teams with a winning record. LSU is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 in this series and the Aggies come in on that overall 0-7 ATS run so we have a 12-0 ATS advantage for the Tigers in this one! In each of the last 5 meetings with A & M, the Tigers were coming in off of an ATS loss and they have responded all 5 times with a win and cover. Thes situation is again set up perfectly here in this season's match-up. 8* LSU |
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11-24-16 | Redskins +7 v. Cowboys | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #109 Thursday - 8* Washington Redskins (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:30 ET - The Cowboys amazing streak has continued but this is the perfect spot for it to end. The Dallas streak actually started all the way back in Week 2 of the season when they went into Washington and stole a win from the Redskins. Or, you could say, the Skins gave it to them. Either way, I haven't forgotten that game and the Redskins surely haven't either as they had the lead in the 4th quarter and had a 1st and goal situation and were getting ready to go up two scores and basically salt the game away. Instead, Washington QB Kirk Cousins made a rare mistake in a crucial spot and threw a pick in the end zone. That changed everything and the rest is now history. Now we get a case where we have a revenging dog getting a full TD against a Dallas team that has performed poorly on Thanksgiving Day each of the past two seasons. This is a great spot for a hungry Washington team as they seek to avenge that loss. The Redskins do a great job with their pass rush while the Cowboys don't be surprised if that ends up being a difference maker here. The Redskins have a road trip to Arizona on deck and that is significant in that this is the first of back to back road games for Washington and the Skins are 9-0 ATS when they are a dog of more than 3 points in the first of back to back road games. The Redskins are also 9-0 ATS when they are on the road and facing a divisional opponent that has a .666 or better winning percentage on the season. These systems combine for an 18-0, 100% ATS mark and I'll gladly grab the generous points here with the revenging road dog. 8* WASHINGTON |
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11-24-16 | Vikings v. Lions -110 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #108 Thursday - 8* Detroit Lions (-) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 12:30 PM ET - Waiting until Thanksgiving morning has paid off has this line has dropped from the Lions being as high as 3 point fave all the way down to where Detroit is now as low as a pick'em. Although the Vikings are off of a win versus Arizona Sunday, that game was in Minnesota and they are now back on the road and they are 9-20-1 SU in their last 30 road games. Also, the Vikes were very fortunate to put up 30 points on the Cardinals as Minny only amassed 217 yards of offense in the game. The Cards actually had 24 first downs (compared to just 16 for the Vikings) in that game. Detroit has been great on Thanksgiving Day the past 3 seasons and this is a big game for NFC North supremacy. Look for the Lions to add to their 3-0 ATS run in Thanksgiving Day run - average cover of 20 points per game! The Vikings had lost 4 straight games prior to last week's win. Even though the Lions win last week was not that impressive they were clearly looking ahead to this game and the Detroit defense did produce a 3rd straight strong game. That is significant because, in terms of comparing these offenses, the Lions certainly have the edge there as the Vikings rank dead last in the league for yardage per game. Detroit is 12-0 ATS when they are a home favorite of less than 4 points and are coming off of back to back SU wins. Lions have won 2 straight and 5 of 6 while Minnesota has lost 4 of 5. It is a case of hot versus not and Detroit has the edge of also being very familiar with playing on Thanksgiving each year and they've excelled in this game in recent seasons. The Lions do it again here and bring that ATS run to 13-0, 100% ATS. 8* DETROIT LIONS |
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11-22-16 | Ball State v. Miami (OH) -7 | 20-21 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
Tuesday Rivalry Rout - Rickenbach CFB Game #104 Tuesday - 8* Miami, Ohio Redhawks (-) vs Ball State Cardinals @ 7 ET - Even though Ball State plays in the West Division of the MAC and Miami, Ohio is in the East Division, this is still a rivalry as these universities are separated by only 70 miles. In fact, for next season, these two rivals will resume playing every year under the MAC’s new “rivalry status” designation. This new ruling allows teams from the East to play a team from the West annually as rivals and certainly this is good to see as this rivalry gets going again. The Redhawks have revenge on their minds in this one as the most recent meeting saw them lose badly at Ball State in 2013 by a final score of 55-14. Revenge is certainly not the only motivating factor here either as Miami has their eyes on securing their 6th win for bowl eligibility. It would be a great accomplishment considering the Redhawks started the season 0-6 but have since rattled off 5 straight wins and gone 5-0 ATS in the process. While the Hawks are "up" for this game I look for Ball State to have a tough game here as first-year Cardinals coach Mike Neu is trying to "rally the troops" but their ugly loss at Toledo (37-19) last week ended their chances at bowl eligibility. The Cardinals defense is struggling and has allowed 534.6 yards per game in MAC games while the Redhawks D has been fantastic in conference action and allowed only 319.6 yards per game. Miami QB Gus Ragland has filled in as Billy Bahl tries to come from injury and Ragland has 12 TDs against 0 picks! In fact, turnovers are a key when looking at how this match-up is likely to play out tonight. The Redhawks have won the turnover battle by a combined 11-4 during their five game winning streak while the Cardinals have lost the turnover battle by a combined 15-5 in their last 6 games! Ball State is 1-8 ATS in November games the past 3 seasons combined while Miami is 8-2 ATS over that same period of time in their games against teams with a losing record. When on a winning streak of 2 games or more, the Redhawks have gone a perfect 3-0 ATS while the Cardinals are on an 0-4 ATS run in Tuesday games. In their 3rd year under coach Chuck Martin the Redhawks have finally hit their stride and they also have a big rest edge here as this is just their third game this month and they've been off since the 12th. The Cards just played on Wednesday and this will be their 4th game in 22 days this month. The Cardinals are ready for the season to end while the Redhawks are geared up to qualify for a bowl as, should they make one, it would be their first since the 2010 season. 8* MIAMI-OHIO Tuesday |
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11-22-16 | Central Michigan v. Eastern Michigan OVER 58 | Top | 21-26 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
Rare Tuesday Top - Rickenbach CFB Game #105/106 Tuesday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Eastern Michigan Eagles vs Central Michigan Chippewas @ 7 ET - It is rare for me to have a weeknight Top Play in Football but the value here is simply too strong to ignore. Eastern Michigan has recorded 5 unders and just 2 overs in their 7 MAC games this season. However, the Eagles have averaged 290.4 passing yards per game which is good for 2nd in the MAC and their pass defense is allowing 269.2 yards per game which ranks near the very bottom of the MAC. With numbers like this you would expect more overs and indeed the lack of overs involving the Eagles has led to value with this total tonight. The weather will be cold but no precipitation and light winds in Ypsilanti, MI tonight. Also, both of these teams are bowl eligible but both are pushing for that 7th win tonight as their certainly have been 6 win teams in the past that have not made bowls. This ensures a strong effort from both teams and Central Michigan's ground game was abysmal last week so they know they'll need to (and can!) move the ball through the air against the Eagles. As for the Eastern Michigan offense, they continue to move at a fast pace. This has led to 82.2 offensive plays per game in their last 5 games. The yardage produced by the Eagles has totaled at least 435 yards in 4 of those 5 games and they've be put up particularly big numbers the past two weeks even though last week's game surprisingly stayed under the total. With Cooper Rush for the Chips and Brogan Roback for the Eagles, both of these teams have solid QBs in place and this game should be a high-scoring shootout that goes down to the wire. The over is 3-1 in Central Michigan's last 4 road games. The over is 10-6 in Eagles games when they are off of a loss to a MAC foe. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Eastern Michigan Tuesday |
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11-21-16 | Texans +6 v. Raiders | 20-27 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
MNF 100% Never Lost System Smash - Rickenbach NFL Game #475 Monday - 8* Houston Texans (+) vs Oakland Raiders @ Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, MX @ 8:30 ET - The Raiders are off of a bye week but they had been rolling and, a lot of times, the last thing a team wants is a bye week when they are in a good rhythm like Oakland was. Here's the 'kicker' to this though: Raiders had covered each of their 3 games prior to the bye and the last 13+ seasons (dating all the way back to the start of the 2003 season) when Oakland enters a game on a 3-0 ATS run they have failed to cover their next game every single time. There have been 10 such occurrences and the Raiders are 0-10 ATS. The 2002 season was the year the Raiders made it to the Super Bowl (and, interestingly, also their most recent year in the post-season) and that was also the Texans first year in the NFL. With that said, once that inaugural Texans season went into the books with the Raiders losing in that year's Super Bowl, since that time, this system is a 10-0, 100% perfect ATS play against the Raiders. Certainly in looking at this match-up, Oakland has the better offense but there is also no argument that the Texans have the better defense. Houston has allowed an average of only 317.4 yards per game and that ranks them among the top teams in the NFL. The Texans offense has been able to get the ground game going of late as they have run for at least 140 yards in 3 of their last 4 games and that will make the Raiders D have to respect the run. Even though Houston QB Brock Osweiler is certainly one of the weaker QBs in the NFL, he'll have opportunities to attack downfield through the air against a Raiders pass defense that ranks as one of the worst in the league as they are allowing 283.2 passing yards per game this season. We're getting some significant points here with a solid defensive-minded team and I look for that aforementioned record for Oakland to drop to 0-11 ATS as they once again fail to get a 4th straight cover. A couple of more ATS notes here. This is essentially an away game for both teams since its being played in Mexico City and the Raiders are 1-9 ATS when they are away from home and off of back-to-back SU wins. Oakland is also 0-6 ATS in Monday Night games against non-divisional opponents. As for the Texans, with their win last week at Jacksonville, they are now 7-2 SU and ATS in their last 9 November games. 8* HOUSTON TEXANS Monday Night |
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11-20-16 | Packers +3 v. Redskins | 24-42 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #473 Sunday - 8* Green Bay Packers (+) @ Washington Redskins @ 8:30 ET - When a team has seemingly hit rock bottom and then gets a marquee match-up under the national TV primetime lights, it is often the best time to make a play on them. Not only are the Packers getting the Sunday night TV game this week but they've got the big Monday night TV game next week. That is noteworthy here because I love backing a team off of an embarrassing loss as a fave (GB lost 47-25 at Tenn LW) and the Packers are a perfect 8-0 ATS their last 8 before a MNF game. The Packers are also 8-1-1 ATS their last 10 against the Redskins and that includes a big 35-18 win in the Wild Card round of last season's playoffs. Certainly that makes this a revenge spot for Washington but the Redskins are catching an angry Packers team off of 3 straight losses. The last time that GB entered a game off of 3 straight losses they were at Minnesota last season and they crushed the Vikings 30 to 13. Washington may also get caught peeking ahead here. Yes, this is a revenge game so that would seem impossible but the fact is the Redskins have their most hated rival, the Cowboys, on deck in just a few days on Thanksgiving Day. In games 9 through 12 of a season, Washington has gone 1-12 ATS when they are a home favorite and off of a win (SU and ATS) in their prior game. Overall, the Redskins are also 1-6 ATS when in the 2nd of back to back home games. Combining all the ATS trends noted above we have a combined 34-3-1 (92%) ATS mark favoring the road dog in this one. I'll take it! 8* GREEN BAY PACKERS Sunday Night |
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11-20-16 | Eagles +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 15-26 | Loss | -121 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #471 Sunday - 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 4:25 ET - The Seahawks are off of a huge revenging win at New England in the Sunday night game. Keep in mind that wasn't just "any revenge" either as it was Super Bowl revenge from the 2015 Super Bowl loss to the Patriots! Not only that but Seattle had to go coast to coast to get it. After that huge win and with another road trip to the East Coast on deck, this is a tough spot for the Seahawks. There is big value with the points as Seattle has only two wins by more than 7 points out of their 9 games this season. Also, the Eagles have not lost a game by more than 7 points this entire season. Philadelphia did, however, accomplish something last week that they haven't done all season and that is they won a game by single digits. That was a tight game and Philly got the win over a good Falcons team. The Eagles defense continues to be dominating as they've allowed 303 yards or less in 6 of their last 8 games! Statistically these teams are very nearly equal so Seattle should be about a field goal favorite at home but instead they're laying around a TD in this one and, given the situational disadvantages to the Seahawks, the big line is certainly not warranted. In other words, big value with the dog in this one. In games 9 through 12 of a season, Philadelphia has gone 12-2 ATS when they are on the road and playing with revenge against a non-divisional opponent. The Eagles lost to the Hawks in Philly in 2014. Philadelphia has also covered 14 in a row (14-0, 100% ATS!) as a road dog of more than 4 points when playing with revenge against an NFC opponent. In games 9 through 12 of a season, Seattle has gone 1-7 ATS when off of an outright win as a underdog and facing a non-divisional opponent. That means we have edges of 33-3 (92%) ATS favoring the Eagles in this spot which truly is an excellent situation. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-20-16 | Dolphins v. Rams OVER 39 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #467/468 Sunday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Rams vs Miami Dolphins @ 4:05 ET - On the surface this looks like an ugly game but I expect a huge effort here from the Rams as everyone will step up their game to support rookie QB Jared Goff as he finally makes his first NFL start. Even though Los Angeles hasn't been putting up points on the scoreboard, prior to last week the Rams had actually averaged 270.4 passing yards per game in their 5 prior games. Goff's teammates will also be wanting to step up for their rookie QB and that includes the running backs as they look to exploit a Dolphins defense that ranks as one of the worst in the league against the run. Also, the Miami D has allowed 284 passing yards per game in their 4 road games this season so don't be surprised if the Rams move the ball a lot better than many are expecting here. Miami has found a way to put points on the board and they have averaged 29 points per game their last 4 games. 7 of the Dolphins last 8 games have totaled at least 45 points and, with the Rams having "nothing to lose" here as they go into the "Goff experiment" I look for them to be willing to open up the playbook with the young QB and surprise a Miami defense that has had it's share of recent struggles in a situation like this. The over is 4-0 the past two seasons seasons when the Dolphins are playing a 2nd straight game away from home. After the big win at San Diego last week, the Dolphins remained in California for this 2nd straight away game and the lack of a "normal" routine this past week will again hurt the Miami defense. 10* OVER in Los Angeles |
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11-20-16 | Ravens +7.5 v. Cowboys | 17-27 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
Early Contrarian - Rickenbach NFL Game #463 Sunday - 8* Baltimore Ravens (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - The Cowboys have had an incredible run but now face arguably the best defense in the NFL. The Ravens also have extra rest as they last played on Thursday and that was a blowout win over the hapless Browns. Baltimore is on a 7-1 ATS run when off of a win over a division rival. The Ravens are also on a 7-1 ATS run when off of facing the Browns. Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett has a 4-11 ATS mark as a home favorite when facing a team off of a SU win. Garrett also has a 2-7 ATS mark as a favorite of more than 3 points when facing a team with a winning record. The Cowboys are only 1-5 ATS when facing a team off of back to back SU and ATS wins. The combined ATS records above in favor of Baltimore in this match-up per the above: 37-9 (80%). The Ravens have won big and covered the past two weeks against the Steelers and Browns and they stay hot here to finally shut up "America's Team" in "Jerry's World" as the Cowboys get caught looking ahead to their Thanksgiving showdown with the division rival Redskins that is just days away. 8* BALTIMORE |
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11-20-16 | Bears +7 v. Giants | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
Early Underdog Shocker - Rickenbach NFL Game #457 Sunday - 8* Chicago Bears (+) @ New York Giants @ 1 ET - The Bears are off of an embarrassing 36 to 10 loss at Tampa Bay while the Giants are off of a tight Monday night win over the Bengals by just a single point. In other words, the set up is perfect here for the ugly dog! Chicago's John Fox is 10-2 ATS away from home when his team is off of a straight-up loss by double digits in a game in which they were favored. The Bears did defeat the Giants in Chicago in 2013 in their most recent meeting. That makes this a revenge spot for New York and, in games 9 through 12 of a season, when playing with revenge versus an opponent who is off of an ATS loss by a double digit margin, the Giants have gone 1-10 ATS. Chicago, in games 9 through 12 of a season, have gone 7-1 ATS when off of a SU loss and facing an opponent who is off of back to back SU and ATS wins. Statistically these teams are truly not different at all when you look at yardage stats but the Giants have simply "found a way" and that is why they are 6-3 on the season while the Bears are 2-7 both SU and ATS. The result here when you consider just how equal these teams are is that we're getting extra line value based on market perception. The Giants should perhaps be a 3 point choice based on home field but instead they're laying 7 or 7.5 in this one and that's value for the dog. Based on the angles above we also are testing a combined 27-4 (87%) ATS mark! I'll gladly take that "test"! 8* CHICAGO |
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11-19-16 | USC v. UCLA +13.5 | Top | 36-14 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
PAC-12 Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #406 Saturday - 10* Top Play UCLA Bruins (+) vs USC Trojans @ 10:30 ET - Huge rivalry game of course and the Bruins have some added confidence after getting back into the win column with a big win over Oregon State last week. This week UCLA catches the Trojans off of their big upset win at Washington last week as a TD+ underdog. Give USC credit as that was a very impressive performance but of course it is difficult to come out and have your "A game" in back to back weeks and, in my opinion, it would take another "A game" from the Trojans to be able to cover this large spread Saturday night. Yes, QB Josh Rosen is out for the season for the Bruins but starting in his place is a 5th year senior, Mike Fafaul, who completed 25 of 47 passes for 281 yards last week. Of course it will be a much tougher task for Fafaul and Company against the USC defense BUT how much will the Trojans have left in the tank after that huge upset win last week? Also, lets not forget that the Bruins defense has been fantastic this season as only one team (Utah) has scored more than 27 points against this defense (not including overtime points). Sure USC has put up big points against bad Pac 12 defenses and against an overmatched Utah State team in non-conference action. However, in the Trojans other 5 games (against quality defenses) they were held to an average of only 18 points per game. I just don't see USC getting enough against this quality Bruins defense to blow UCLA away. Simply put, this game will go down to the wire as the 4-6 Bruins would love nothing more than to eliminate their hated rival from PAC-12 South contention. The Trojans are a long-term 5-10 ATS as road favorites of 10.5 to 14 points. In games played in weeks 10 through 13 of a season, the Bruins are 7-2 ATS their last 9. The home team is on a 14-5 ATS run in this series and, overall, USC is on a 11-22 ATS run as a road favorite. The Bruins had won 3 straight in this series (all by double digits) before last seasons embarrassing 40-21 loss to the Trojans. It is time for a little payback here. 10* UCLA Bruins plus the big points Saturday |
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11-19-16 | Tulsa +1 v. Central Florida | 35-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Contrarian Smash - Rickenbach CFB Game #391 Saturday - 8* Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) @ Central Florida Knights @ 8 ET - The Knights have bounced back from an insane 0-12 season to go 6-4 so far this season. However, their 6 wins included one against an FCS school and 5 against FBS schools that each have at least 7 losses on the season! The point is that I am not sold on the UCF turnaround and Tulsa comes into this game angry off of a tight loss at Navy last week. The Golden Hurricane are averaging 518.5 yards of offense per game and this will prove to be too much for a Central Florida offense that is averaging only 361.5 yards per game. Tulsa is playing the 2nd of back to back road games for the only time this season but this is a situation that has seen them go 7-1 ATS their last 8 and I like backing them off of a loss as they now look to get back on track with a win. They are a perfect 5-0 ATS their last 5 games. Also, Tulsa is an incredible 27-7 SU (and ATS!) when they score 30 points or more in a conference game. So far this season the Golden Hurricane have scored at least 31 points in every single game except for when they faced Ohio State. Look for the Tulsa offense to stay red hot and Central Florida gets exposed here! I'll gladly fade a line move that has seen the Golden Hurricane go from being as high as a 4 point favorite to now being a 1 point dog in this one. 8* TULSA Saturday |
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11-19-16 | Stanford v. California +10.5 | 45-31 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
The Big Game - Rickenbach CFB Game #376 Saturday - 8* California Golden Bears (+) vs Stanford Cardinal @ 5:30 ET - Of course this literally is "The Big Game" and Stanford has won 6 straight match-ups. However, this could be "the year" for Cal as an upset here would not surprise me given the situation but, either way, the fact is that the points are too much here. Without a doubt the Cardinal possess the much better defense but there also is no doubt that California has the much more explosive offense. That said, I feel this is a rather "even match-up" and yet we're able to get double digit points with the home dog! Keep in mind, Cal has to have this game to keep bowl eligibility hopes alive and also, of course, the added motivational edge of the players on this California team wanting to finally have "The Stanford Axe" that remains with the team who wins this annual battle. None of these players have ever had it since they haven't beaten Stanford since 2009. Note that the Cardinal finally had an offensive explosion last week but this was a team that previously had averaged only 19.9 points per game in their first 9 games of this season. It's hard to cover a spread like this one when you struggle to put points on the board and I am not "sold" on the Stanford offense after just one game. It's also doubly hard to cover a big spread like this when you're facing a team that averages nearly 40 points and over 500 yards per game! Even though the Bears have lost bad the past three weeks, they have averaged 454 yards of offense per game and they will have some success against the Cardinal D as this is one of the top offenses in the nation. Cal did recently have an ugly home loss to Washington but they are 3-0 in their other 3 home games this season with wins over Oregon, Utah, and Texas. They also won their neutral site opener in Australia vs Hawaii back in August. The point is that Utah and Texas are certainly not horrible teams and Cal not only beat them but they have won every single non-road game this season other than the one against the Huskies. Keep in mind that's the same Washington team that blasted Stanford 44-6 earlier this season. Simply put, the Cardinal don't belong in this price range against a home dog that has the offense to rise up and keep up the Golden Bears in this one all the way. 8* CALIFORNIA Saturday |
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11-19-16 | UMass v. BYU OVER 55 | Top | 9-51 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Game #345/346 Saturday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in BYU Cougars vs UMass Minutemen @ 2 ET - The Minutemen are having another tough season but they should still score their fair share here. After all, BYU has the Old Wagon Wheel rivalry on deck as they host Utah State next week. That said, the Cougars defensive intensity may not be at its greatest for this game against a 2-8 UMass team. The Minutemen have averaged 27 points per game in their last 8 games and they have scored at least 16 points in all 8 of those games. That is significant here because even if they only got to 16, note that the Cougars are a 4 TD fave in this game. That means a 44-16 type game could be expected. Certainly I do expect this one to get to at least 60 points as the UMass defensive line will be pushed around all day by the dominating, veteran offensive line of BYU. The Cougars have averaged 33 points per game in their last 7 games and they've faced some much tougher defenses during that stretch than what they're facing today. The Minutemen have allowed about 43 points per game in their last 6 games against FBS foes. The Cougars have been an "under team" this season but they can run up the score against a porous UMass defense in this one. By the way, the over is 18-7 when the Minutemen are an underdog, 4-0 when they are a dog of 21.5 to 31 points, 11-5 in their road games, and 5-1 when UMass is facing a team with a winning record. Cool temperatures but light winds in Provo, UT for this one should also help our cause with this total. 10* OVER the total in BYU Saturday |
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11-19-16 | Ohio State v. Michigan State +21.5 | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #396 Saturday - 8* Michigan State Spartans (+) vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ Noon ET - Spartans coach Dantonio has a knack for being a cash cow as an underdog. Dantonio is on an 11-2 ATS run as an underdog and 8 of those 11 victories have been outright wins. Though they are unlikely to upset Ohio State here, the spread is far too big. The Spartans lost to rival Michigan here in East Lansing by only 9 points three weeks ago. Also, the weather will be very cold and windy today with temperatures in the 30s and winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40. It is not going to be a day that is conducive for offenses to put up many points. Of course that favors a big underdog like the Spartans are here as they are catching more than 3 TDs in this one. Ohio State has "The Game" on deck as they face the Wolverines next week. That makes this the perfect spot to back a Michigan State team that was able to get some confidence back thanks to annihilating Rutgers 49-0 last week. The Spartans needed that win as it has been a very tough season for them. That makes games like this ultra important to them. It is their home finale and a chance at pulling off a shocker. Though I don't expect that I do expect the Spartans to keep this one much closer than many are expecting. Michigan State is a perfect 13-0 ATS when they are a home dog of more than 4 points and they are coming off of a SU win. Ohio State is a winless 0-9 ATS when they are a road favorite of less than 25 points and they are coming off of a SU win by double digits and now facing a team with a sub.-500 record. With the Spartans only 3-7 on the season that system fits here and that means that by playing the big home dog we are testing angles that are a combined 22-0, 100%! 8* MICHIGAN STATE Saturday |
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11-18-16 | Memphis v. Cincinnati OVER 58.5 | Top | 34-7 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #315/316 Friday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Bearcats vs Memphis Tigers @ 8 ET - Record high temperatures are expected today in Cincinnati as warmth continues in the area prior to a cold front plowing through later tonight. The result will be mild temperatures this evening for this one and, though the Bearcats have been an "under" team this season, there is a reason this line is moving upward. The fact is that the Cincy defense is not very good and there has been some "luck" involved with the Cats not allowing more points than they have. Their defense only ranks 71st (out of 129) based on yardage allowed per game. Memphis has a very dangerous offense (averaging 39 points per game this season) and they should knife right through the Bearcats D in this one. The key to the over however is the fact that Cincinnati should finally get their offense going. Yes, the Bearcats have had 9 unders in 10 games this season but, more recently, the problem has been they've been on the road or facing a tough opponent (BYU) at home. Overall in home games this season (other than tough match-ups against BYU and Houston), the Bearcats have averaged 26.5 points per game in their other 4 home games. In their first 7 games this season Cincy did average 284 passing yards per game and I expect that passing attack to get back on track tonight for Senior Night in Cincinnati. With nothing to lose (disappointing season overall), the Bearcats can certainly throw caution to the wind so look for them open up the playbook on offense and attack a Memphis defense that ranks 92nd (out of 129) based on yardage allowed per game. The over is 6-2 in the Tigers last 8 games and I look for another one here as the Bearcats put up big points in their home finale while a powerful Memphis offense has no trouble moving the ball all night in this one. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Friday |
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11-17-16 | Saints +3.5 v. Panthers | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #309 Thursday - 8* New Orleans Saints (+) @ Carolina Panthers @ 8:25 ET - Both teams are looking to bounce back off of tough losses this past Sunday. That said, the value here is with the Saints even though it is the Panthers who are seeking revenge for a loss at New Orleans earlier this season. The fact is that Carolina just isn't the same team it once was. They have faded this season and it hasn't been a fluke. The statistics back it up. With their loss versus Kansas City Sunday, the Panthers have now been held under 350 yards of offense in 3 straight games. It is not just the offense that is having problems either. In their 5 games prior to blowing a huge lead and losing to the Chiefs, the Carolina pass defense was completely exposed as they allowed an average of 347.8 yards per game through the air. The Panthers aren't going to stop a Saints offense that has the #1 aerial attack in the league on a clear night with calm winds in Carolina. The Saints have gone 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog including a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. Also, New Orleans is on a solid 6-2 ATS run in divisional games. The Panthers only 2 ATS wins this season have come with extra rest (once after a Monday night game and once after their bye week). Carolina is 0-6-1 ATS in their other 7 games this season and now the Panthers comes into this Thursday game on short rest. Coincidentally, the other time Carolina entered a game on short rest this season was when they faced the Saints in October after a Monday night game. That didn't go so well as the Panthers gave up 523 yards in a game that Carolina only lost by 3 but that easily could have been decided by much more than that. The Saints just have too much offense for a "scuffling" Panthers team this season and, additionally, the New Orleans defense has shown some improvement as the Saints have held 4 of their last 6 opponents to 359 yards or less. 8* NEW ORLEANS Thursday |
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11-17-16 | Louisville -14.5 v. Houston | 10-36 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
ESPN ATS Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #311 Thursday - 8* Louisville Cardinals (-) @ Houston Cougars @ 8 ET - The Cougars have not been the same team since all the head coaching rumors started flying around about Tom Herman's future as he is one of the more sought after coaches in the nation. This started right before Houston got upset at Navy and that began a horrible decline for the Cougars that has seen them lose 5 straight ATS. Certainly the Cougars would like nothing more than to play the role of spoiler and step up big-time on ESPN Thursday night and upset one of the top teams in the nation. However, Houston star QB Greg Ward is dealing with a bad shoulder and a bad ankle and, overall, this Cougars team is simply no match for a revenge-minded Cardinals team. Louisville suffered a home loss to the Cougars last season and that ensures that they once they get up huge in this game they will keep the pedal to the metal so I have no qualms about laying the 2 TD spread plus even more on Thursday night. The Cardinals are better on both sides of the ball than the Cougars are. Keep in mind, Houston has been held to an average of 329.7 yards of offense per game in their last 3 games and those were against SMU, UCF, and Tulane! There is no way the Cougars are going to keep up with QB Lamar Jackson and the Cardinals in this one. Jackson and Company are averaging 50 points per game this season and their defense has held their last 3 opponents to 322 yards or less in all 5 games. This is clearly a case of two teams going in opposite directions. The Cardinals are on a 13-3 ATS run when they are on the road and facing a team with a winning percentage of .666 or better. Look for Houston's run to reach 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as the Cards get their payback in a big way tonight. 8* LOUISVILLE Thursday |
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11-16-16 | Northern Illinois v. Eastern Michigan OVER 62 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #307/308 Wednesday - 8* OVER the total in Eastern Michigan Eagles vs Northern Illinois Huskies @ 8 ET - This one is all about the offenses! Eastern Michigan just clinched bowl eligibility for the first time in two decades last week. The Eagles are doing it with offense including an insane 72 pass attempts last week. Eastern Michigan quarterback Brogan Roback missed the first three games of this season but he's been putting up big numbers in his five starts since. The Eagles are averaging 365.5 passing yards per game in their last 4 games. As for Northern Illinois, they have had a disappointing season but QB Ryan Graham is taking over for the injured Anthony Maddie and Graham lost the starting job to him earlier this season. That means that Graham wants to make the most of this opportunity and the coaches have been impressed with his work and preparation throughout the time he has been benched. As a result, and with nothing to lose in this game, they'll definitely open up the playbook for Graham here. Keep in mind, the Huskies offense averages 78 plays per game which is a pace that puts them in the top 20 in the nation. The Eagles have scored on 93.5% of their drives that reach the red zone and that is good for 2nd in the MAC. The point is that both of these teams can put up big points and are not afraid to air it out. With clear skies and light winds for tonight's game the weather conditions are also perfect for plenty of offense in this one. The over is on a long-term 7-1 (88%) run in Eagles games where they are a home dog of 3 points or less. The over is 3-1 (75%) this season in Huskies road games and Northern Illinois is 4-2 (67%) to the over the last few seasons when they are off of a loss against a MAC foe. 8* OVER the total in Eastern Michigan Wednesday |
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11-15-16 | Ohio v. Central Michigan +1 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
ESPN2 Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #304 Tuesday - 8* Central Michigan Chippewas (+) vs Ohio University Bobcats @ 7 ET - Senior night in Mount Pleasant, Michigan and one of those seniors is QB Cooper Rush who has been projected as high as a 4th round draft pick in the NFL draft next spring. Look for him to lead the way against a Ohio University team that has won three straight games but that has allowed passing yards of 308 or more in 3 of their last 4 games. In fact, in those 3 games the Bobcats allowed an average of 364.3 passing yards. The Chippewas have lost three straight games and they are hungry to get back on track and make sure they get to a bowl game. The last time they faced Ohio U. the Chips dominated them by a final score of 28-10 two seasons ago. A similar result here would not be a total shock. Central Michigan is very hungry for this game and they have played a tougher schedule than the Bobcats have. Also, the Chippewas are on a perfect 6-0 ATS run in home games where they are off of back to back losses and they are hosting an opponent who is off of back to back wins. In this case, the Chips are coming in on a 3-game losing streak while the Cats are on a 3-game winning streak. Perfect set-up! Adding to the value here is the fact that Ohio U. had two MAC opponents they were facing this year that they lost to last year. One was Bowling Green and the other was Buffalo. After a revenging win over the Falcons earlier this season the Bobcats then lost as a 7 point favorite at home versus Eastern Michigan. Now, after a revenging win over the Bulls last week, look for a similar result here as Ohio University follows up a revenging win with a loss in their next game. 8* CENTRAL MICHIGAN Tuesday |
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11-14-16 | Bengals -105 v. Giants | 20-21 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #275 Monday - 8* Cincinnati Bengals (Pick'em) @ New York Giants @ 8:30 ET - The Giants are off of a 3 straight wins (SU and ATS) but they beat the Ravens on a very late TD, faced a Rams team whose offense is pathetic, and then were fortunate to get by the Eagles as they were outgained by 141 yards in last week's home win. The Bengals are off of a bye week and are finally playing their first November game. Coming off of a frustrating tie in London against the Redskins, there is no doubt the Bengals have been "chomping at the bit" to get back on the field and make up for that frustrating result two weeks ago. Both of these teams have had overall tough seasons thusfar on the defensive side of the ball but the key variables that favor the Bengals are coming off the bye week, hungry off a frustrating tie game, the better offense (Cincy has a ground game and the Giants don't), and playing much better mistake-free football in terms of turnovers compared with New York. The Giants have turned the ball over 11 times in their 4 home games this season. By comparison, the Bengals have a total of only 3 turnovers in their last 5 games and QB Andy Dalton has not thrown a pick in 4 of his last 5 games. Cincinnati is on a 17-8 ATS run in games against the NFC East. Also, the Bengals have won 6 of their last 8 non-conference match-ups. The Giants are on a 1-4 run (SU and ATS) in Monday night games. Also, the Giants have gone 8-19 SU in home games where they are a dog of 3 points or less. Based on the line of pick'em in this game we just need Cincy to get the win and they certainly should do just that. With their loss at Minnesota earlier this season on MNF, the Giants are now 0-5 ATS when they are an underdog on Monday night football. The Bengals are on a 12-2 ATS run when they are off of a non-conference game and now facing a non-divisional opponent. 8* CINCINNATI Monday Night |
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11-13-16 | Seahawks +7.5 v. Patriots | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #273 Sunday - 8* Seattle Seahawks (+) @ New England Patriots @ 8:30 PM ET - The Patriots seem to be head and shoulders above the rest of the league since Tom Brady returned but a closer look shows that, even though they are off of their bye week and have won 4 straight, this could be the week they get tripped up. The Pats have not faced a team that currently has a winning record since Brady returned. The combined record of the 4 teams is currently 11-23-1. The teams included Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Buffalo. The only team they faced that currently is at .500 on the season is Pittsburgh and the Patriots were lucky as they caught the Steelers sans Ben Roethlisberger! Now Sunday night New England will finally get a test as they face a 5-2-1 Seahawks team. Sure Seattle did not impress on Monday night against the Bills but, of course, they were looking ahead to this game! This is a Super Bowl rematch! The Seahawks lost to the Patriots on February 1, 2015 and they've been waiting for this shot at redemption for nearly two full years now! I look for the highly motivated Hawks to make the most of it and, if they do fall short, it should be 7 or less. Seattle has a strong defense and also is getting their passing game back into high gear as Russell Wilson has gotten healthier. Head coach Pete Carroll has led his team to an incredible 13-1 ATS mark when they are an underdog playing with revenge. Also, in weeks 10 through 13 the past two seasons, the Patriots only covered 2 of 7 games. New England is on a long-term run of only 14-21 ATS when playing 2 weeks or more of rest. In other words, the "benefit" of a bye week hasn't been enough to overcome the big spreads that the Pats often are involved with in a situation like this. The Sunday night game looks like another one of those "inflated" spots and I expect the upset here or a loss to come by only a single possession. The Seahawks are so hungry for this opportunity and the Patriots finally are facing a true challenge for the first time since Brady came back. This should be a fantastic, tight, Super Bowl rematch! 8* SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Sunday night |
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11-13-16 | Cowboys v. Steelers -3 | Top | 35-30 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Conf Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #272 Sunday - 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 PM ET - Beautiful set-up here and one that I have had my eyes on for quite some time. The Cowboys have now won and covered 7 straight games while the Steelers have now lost and failed to cover 3 straight games. The key in looking at these two teams is that Pittsburgh is very hungry, at home, and has Ben Roethlisberger ready to go in his 2nd game back with the rust shaken off last week. Dallas has been fortunate with playing a much easier schedule in comparison with the Steelers. The Cowboys have gone 2-1 in the NFC East games (but easily could (should!) be 0-3 in those games. Outside of their division they have gone 5-0 but not a single one of those teams has a winning record and 3 of the games have come against the 3 worst teams in the league (Cleveland, San Francisco, Chicago). The combined record of the 5 teams Dallas has played outside of their division is 10-31-1 and, again, I reiterate they easily could be 0-3 in their division. They did lose to the Giants but got very lucky to beat Redskins (Washington was going into the end zone to make it a two possession game in 4th quarter when disaster struck) and also lucky to beat Eagles (Philly had huge lead and made questionable coaching decisions in game eventually won by Dallas in OT). This is the beginning of a tough stretch in the schedule for the Cowboys and with the Tony Romo/Dak Prescott controversy about to reach a fever pitch, you are about to see Dallas implode over the remainder of this season. Just look at their remaining schedule and you'll see what I am talking about. But here his is our opportunity to get in on the "ground floor" of this implosion because it starts today with having to travel to face a fired up Steelers team that was considered a prime Super Bowl contender before this season started. Keep in mind, the Roethlisberger injury certainly hurt them as they were 4-1 on the year going into the game in which he got hurt. Look for him to have a big game today as the Cowboys pass defense has been susceptible at times this season. They allowed an average of 320.3 passing yards per game against Green Bay, Chicago, and Washington. Dallas is only 10-12 ATS in games where the line is between +3 and -3 and the Cowboys are also on a long-term 10-17 ATS run in games against the AFC North. The Steelers are 6-1 SU and ATS when they are a home favorite of 3 points or less. Also, Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU (and 4-1 ATS) when they are off of a loss against a division rival. Off of a tough loss at Baltimore last week (outgained Ravens) look for the Steelers to bounce back as they improve on their 12-4 record in games against teams with a winning record. The home team will be at its best for this game while you see the Cowboys finally get knocked off of their perch as they're exposed for their fortunate schedule and lucky early-season bounces of the ball. 10* Top Play PITTSBURGH STEELERS Sunday |
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11-13-16 | Dolphins v. Chargers OVER 48 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #267/268 Sunday - 10* Top Play OVER in San Diego Chargers vs Miami Dolphins @ 4 PM ET - The Chargers linebacking corps continues to deal with a cluster of injuries and this has severely weakened a San Diego defense that allowed 25 points per game last season and is now allowing 27.4 points per game this season. The Dolphins comes into this game with plenty of confidence as they have won 3 straight games and averaged 28.3 points per game in the process. That means that they will enjoy plenty of success against a hobbled Chargers linebacking group as the Dolphins attack the middle of the field. The key to this play however is the fact that Miami has little chance of enjoying success against Philip Rivers and Company. Rivers is one of the elite QBs in the NFL and he has helped lead the Chargers to 34 points per game in their 4 home games this season. In their final home game last season, San Diego put up 30 points on the Dolphins while eclipsing the 300 mark in passing yards. Miami will again struggle to stop the San Diego attack. While it looks like the Dolphins pass defense has been performing well recently, keep in mind they faced 3 of the worst passing offenses in the league (Tennessee, New York Jets, and Buffalo) and in their other recent game they faced Pittsburgh but knocked starting QB Ben Roethlisberger out of the game. That said, looking back at their first 4 games this season (and even though they faced the pathetic Browns once), Miami allowed 272.5 passing yards per game. The Chargers come into this game having averaged 318.8 passing yards per game in their last 5 games not against teams named the Broncos - Denver #1 in pass defense this season! The point is San Diego should be able to move the ball at will against the Miami D and the Dolphins O will enjoy plenty of success against a Chargers defense hurt (literally!) by injuries. Also, the over is 6-1 in Chargers games played on grass this season with the lone under coming when they hosted Denver! The over is also 4-1 in Miami's games played on grass this season with the lone under coming in the game when they knocked Roethlisberger out of the contest. 10* OVER in San Diego Sunday |
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11-13-16 | Broncos +3 v. Saints | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #255 Sunday - 8* Denver Broncos (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 1 PM ET - Of course, without a shadow of a doubt, the Saints have the better offense in this match-up. However, defense can certainly win football games and the Broncos have long proven that to be the case. Also, the fact is, New Orleans has one of the worst defenses in the league so don't be surprised if Denver enjoys plenty of success on offense in this one. The Broncos come into this game very hungry after losing badly at Oakland on Sunday night. Denver, even after losing that game as a 1 point road dog, is still 8-2 ATS their last 10 games as an underdog. As for the Saints, they are off of a blowout win over the 49'ers but it was fueled by turnovers. The Niners turned the ball over 4 times and New Orleans managed to win the game by 18 points despite allowing San Francisco to gain nearly 500 yards of offense. The Broncos are on a 14-6 ATS run in non-conference action. Also, Denver has a bye week on deck so they certainly are going to "leave it all on the field" at New Orleans Sunday as the defending Super Bowl champs don't want to go into the bye week on an 0-2 skid. The Saints are on a 7-16 ATS run as a favorite. Also, when the Saints enter a game off of 2 or more consecutive wins, they've lost 3 of the last 4. New Orleans has a big game on deck Thursday with division rival (and defending NFC champ) Carolina. The Saints are only 4-5 SU their last 9 in the game before facing the Panthers but the bigger story there is only 1 of those 4 wins came by more than 3 points. Look for New Orleans to struggle to get past the Broncos in this one and, if they do win, expect it to be by a field goal or less although certainly I am making this play with expectation of an outright upset. 8* DENVER BRONCOS Sunday |
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11-12-16 | Minnesota v. Nebraska -6.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Contrarian Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #202 Saturday - 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (-) vs Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 7:30 ET - This line has dropped from a -8 down to a -6 and, of course, much of this has to do with the uncertainty of Tommy Armstrong, Jr being cleared to play for Saturday's game. The key here in my mind is that, even if he does not play and it ends up being senior QB Ryker Fyfe that gets the call, the Cornhuskers are still going to annihilate the Golden Gophers here. Minnesota has a nice-looking record but look at who they've beaten! Minny has wins over an FCS school, 2 non-conf FBS schools that are a combined 7-11 this season, and then their 4 Big Ten wins have come against teams that are a combined 5-19 in the conference. Nebraska's Big Ten wins at least include a pair of teams (Indiana and Northwestern) who at least are at .500 in conference action this season. Also, in non-conf action they absolutely blasted a Wyoming team that is now 7-2 on the season. The Huskers have played a much tougher schedule and will be stronger for it in this game. After back to back losses at Wisconsin and Ohio State, the Cornhuskers are happy to be back home and this is a night game at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln which means the atmosphere will be insane! Nebraska also has revenge from a rare home loss to Minny when the Gophers visited 2 years ago. That means it is payback time in this rematch at home. It was some measure of revenge for the Huskers when they blasted the Golden Gophers by 23 in Minnesota last season but now they want a taste of that in Lincoln too! Minny is 3-7 ATS when they enter a game off of back to back wins. Also, Minnesota is 0-7 ATS in their next game after facing Purdue (big rivalry). Also, the Gophers are 0-5 ATS as road dogs of less than 20 points or less when they're off of a game where they scored more than 35 points. That system fits as well here and that means we've got a 15-0 ATS combined mark in favor of the Huskers here because Nebraska is also 3-0 ATS when they enter a game off of back to back losses. They are the better team, they're at home, and Ryker Fyfe did throw for over 400 yards in a rare start last season (against Purdue). The Huskers are rallying around this situation with Tommy Armstrong Jr and, no matter who ends up under center, the Cornhuskers are ready to respond after last week's embarrassing loss. 10* NEBRASKA Saturday |
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11-12-16 | LSU -7 v. Arkansas | Top | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
THE Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #169 Saturday - 10* Top Play LSU Tigers (-) @ Arkansas @ 7 ET - Other than Alabama, clearly a team in a class of their own, teams just don't beat LSU in Baton Rouge. It is a rare occurrence and, when it does happen, the Tigers almost always get their revenge in the next meeting. Last week's loss to Alabama for LSU was the first time they've lost at home since Arkansas beat them last season. The Razorbacks beat the Tigers by 17 in Baton Rouge last year to hand LSU its worst home loss since Ole Miss beat them by 18 back in 2008. Needless to say, that makes this a huge revenge spot for LSU and the situation is set up perfectly. The Tigers are off of a 10-0 home shutout versus the Crimson Tide last week while Arkansas is off of a huge revenging 31-10 win versus Florida last week. The Hogs wanted that game badly as they were off of a thorough embarrassment in their prior game (at Auburn) and they had lost to the Gators by 20 points in their most recent game (in coach Bret Bielema's first year in Arkansas). Even though LSU is off of a key game (Alabama) which they wanted badly, the fact that they suffered a home shutout and the fact that they only have a non-conference opponent (South Alabama) on deck ensures that the Tigers will be ready for this revenge opportunity. Arkansas has not won back to back games since mid-September and their defense allows nearly 100 yards more per game than the Tigers defense does. LSU has lost by 17 points to Arky in each of the last two meetings and that adds fuel to the fire for this rematch as the Tigers did lose by a 17-0 count in their last visit to Fayetteville. LSU is on a 10-5 ATS run as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points while Arkansas is on a 5-8 ATS run as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. The last 6 times that LSU lost a game and were held to 10 points or less, they have won the next game ALL 6 TIMES and gone 5-1 ATS in those games with the lone non-cover coming up just 1 point short. The Tigers bounce back again here, plus get some payback in this double revenge spot, and they catch Arkansas flat off of their huge win over the Gators last week. 10* LSU Tigers Saturday |
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11-12-16 | Wyoming -7.5 v. UNLV | 66-69 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #151 Saturday - 8* Wyoming Cowboys (-) @ UNLV Rebels @ 3:30 ET - This line opened up as high as -9 on Wyoming and then did fall all the way down to a -7. However, it "settled in" at -7.5 but I am still comfortable laying the 7 plus "the hook" in this one. The Cowboys continue to win but also continue to be under-valued and that is why I am investing in them again this week. Wyoming has not suffered a SU loss or ATS loss since they lost a tight game at Eastern Michigan on September 23rd! The Cowboys will now take advantage of facing a UNLV team that has lost 6 of their past 8 games and that is on a 2-5 ATS skid. The Rebels are on a 1-7 ATS run as a home dog and they're hosting a Wyoming team that is on an overall 13-6 ATS run. The Cowboys ground game is led by RB Hill who has totaled 835 rushing yards in his last 5 games. Last season he ran for 232 yards against the Rebels and UNLV's defense has been getting gashed on the ground. Overall, the Rebels have allowed 424 yards or more in 4 straight games. UNLV's only wins this season have come against an FCS school and Fresno State and Hawaii. The Bulldogs and Warriors are a combined 5-15 this season. To put it bluntly, UNLV is simply not a good a football team and this line is a very manageable one. The average margin of defeat for the Rebels this season is 15 points per loss. The Cowboys last 6 wins have seen only 1 victory come by a margin of less than 8 points. Wyoming is on a 9-1 ATS run when they enter a game off of back to back wins against conference opponents. The Rebels are on a 1-6 ATS run when they are off of a SU loss in a game in which they were favored. UNLV is off of a loss as a 3 point fave at San Jose State and the Spartans were 2-7 on the season. Bad football team and Wyoming is a team on a mission. They do have a big game on deck with San Diego State but the Cowboys showed last week (when off of a huge win over Boise State and still blasted Utah State) that, no matter the situation, this team is coming to play each week. 8* WYOMING Saturday |
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11-12-16 | Kentucky +14 v. Tennessee | 36-49 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #165 Saturday - 8* Kentucky Wildcats (+) @ Tennessee Volunteers @ Noon ET - The whole world is jumping on Tennessee here and that's not a surprise as the Volunteers have dominated long-term in their series with the Wildcats. However, Kentucky has gone from an 11 point dog to a 14 point dog in this one and that is opening up exceptional line value on the Cats. Keep in mind, these teams have faced very similar schedules in terms of strength of opponents and Kentucky had won 5 of 6 both SU and ATS before last week's tough loss to Georgia. Sure that was a tough defeat for the Wildcats to lose by just a field goal to the Bulldogs but do you really think they won't be fired up about an opportunity to resume their recent winning ways against a hated rival that always seems to have their number? Undoubtedly, Kentucky will bring their "A game" Saturday and they're facing a Vols team that just blasted an FCS team last week but that has lost three straight SEC games and also is on a 1-3 ATS run in SEC games. The Volunteers continue to be over-valued by the betting markets and Tennessee is on a 2-10 ATS run when they are home favorites of 8 points or more and facing an opponent who is playing with revenge. The Wildcats only have 2 losses by double digit margins this season and those were to SEC East leader Florida and SEC West leader Alabama. Tennessee only has 2 wins this season by more than 10 points and one was against FCS opponent Tennessee Tech last week and the other was by 21 points over Virginia Tech but the Hokies outgained the Vols by a 400 to 330 margin in that game! Don't be surprised if the Wildcats keep this game much closer than many are expecting. Statistically these teams are very similar this season and the Cats are highly motivated because of getting beaten badly by the Volunteers in recent years. 8* KENTUCKY Saturday |
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11-11-16 | Boston College +21 v. Florida State | 7-45 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Game #117 Friday - 8* Boston College Eagles (+) @ Florida State Seminoles @ 7:30 ET - Against the ACC's top teams (Virginia Tech, Clemson, Louisville), the Eagles defense struggled. In their other 6 games this season, Boston College allowed an average of only 13.2 points per game. The Eagles D is viewing this Friday night game under the ESPN2 cameras as an opportunity to show that this unit can still get the job done against the better teams in the nation. Under coach Steve Addazio, Boston College has lost to the Seminoles all 3 years but no loss was by more than 14 points and the Eagles only lost by 3 points in their lone visit to Florida State since Addazio took over. Even though the BC offense is having another tough season, the Noles secondary and linebacking corps is simply not what it used to be. That's played a big role in Florida State's drop-off this season. The Seminoles once vaunted defense has allowed 450 yards or more in 5 of their last 7 games! The Eagles offense, with QB Patrick Towles further healed up from his hamstring problems, may surprise the Noles with some big plays downfield. Florida State is an ugly 1-6 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. The Eagles, under Addazio, have gone 7-3 ATS as a double digit dog. Also, BC is a long-term 5-1 ATS as a road dog of 17.5 to 21 points. FSU has been outgained in back to back weeks. The Seminoles did come from behind for the non-covering win at NC State last week but they are 6-11 ATS when off of a win in conference action and I expect another non-covering win here for the Noles. Florida State used a lot of energy up in their comeback win over the Wolfpack last week. It's been back to back grueling games for the Seminoles as they went toe to toe in a slugfest with Clemson the prior week as well. The Eagles are amped up for this weeknight "spotlight game" opportunity and will keep this game much closer than many are expecting. 8* BOSTON COLLEGE Friday |
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11-10-16 | Browns v. Ravens -8 | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #110 Thursday - 8* Baltimore Ravens (-) vs Cleveland Browns @ 8:25 ET - At first glance this may seem like a good spot to grab the big points with the Browns. After all, the Ravens are off of a big win over the rival Steelers Sunday and it would be easy for Baltimore to overlook a Cleveland team that is 0-9. However, the reason I am going against the common though processes with this play is because of a couple key factors. The Ravens, by virtue of their win versus Pittsburgh last week, are tied for first place with the Steelers in the AFC North and this game against the Browns is a divisional game. The other key factor is that the Browns upset the Ravens as TD underdogs last season in Baltimore! Rest assured, the Ravens haven't forgotten about losing to Cleveland the last time they hosted them at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. In John Harbaugh's 9 years with the Ravens they are 8-1 SU at Cleveland and tonight they are looking to improve to 8-1 SU at home against the Browns. As you can see, Harbaugh's Ravens have dominated the Browns and I look for them to get revenge for that lone home loss to Cleveland which was the first one since 2007. After opening up as high as a 10.5 this line has dropped to an 8 as of early gameday morning and this is offering excellent line value to the revenging home fave. The Ravens did win at Cleveland earlier this season but they allowed the Browns to jump out to a big, early lead and then had to rally back for the win. You can bet that the Ravens don't want to let that happen again and they'll come out fired up from the opening kickoff in this game. Baltimore is 6-1 ATS when off of a win against a division rival. Cleveland is 0-5 ATS when they are a divisional road dog of more than 7 points. The Browns also are 0-7 ATS when on the road and facing a divisional foe with revenge. Yes, the Ravens did get their revenge already on the road against Cleveland twice already (once late last season and once earlier this season) but this is the first time they have hosted the Browns since that early season home loss last year. It's payback time and I'll test that combined 12-0 ATS mark in favor of the home favorite here. 8* BALTIMORE Thursday |
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11-10-16 | North Carolina -10.5 v. Duke | 27-28 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #111 Thursday - 8* North Carolina Tar Heels (-) @ Duke Blue Devils @ 7:30 ET - Without a shadow of a doubt, the Blue Devils do want this game badly. They are winless in ACC action, this is their home finale, they need the W to have a shot at bowl eligibility, and this is the battle for the Victory Bell in this rivalry match-up. The problem for Duke is that that the Tar Heels also have plenty of motivation here and they are the far superior team with the much better (and much more experienced QB). North Carolina is a solid 7-2 on the season and still has hopes of an ACC title. UNC is led by QB Mitch Trubisky and the 6'3 junior has a 19-2 TD-INT ratio which is even more impressive when you take out the game played during poor conditions (Hurricane Matthew). Without that game included (horrible weather), Trubisky has thrown 19 TDs and ZERO picks on the season. His counterpart tonight is a redshirt freshman, 6'5 Daniel Jones, who has thrown for 6 TDs (but also 6 picks) in his last 5 games. Jones is a dual threat QB but on a beautiful night in Durham, NC tonight the key to the big winner here is going to be the team with the better passing game. The Blue Devils defense is known for giving up huge plays and the Tar Heels aerial attack will pick them apart for big plays all game long. North Carolina, other than the Hurricane Matthew game, has thrown for an average of 380.3 passing yards per game since mid-Sept. The Tar Heels have also averaged 207.3 yards per game on the ground their last 3 games. Their offense will tear apart the Blue Devils defense and Duke won't be able to keep up with UNC here. The Heels are on a 6-1 ATS run as a road favorite. Also, North Carolina has a long-term mark of 4-1 ATS when they are a road favorite of 10.5 to 14 points so don't let the big number scare you here. Duke is only 1-3 SU and ATS in Thursday games. The Blue Devils have lost to the Tar Heels by a margin of 30 points per defeat the last two seasons and another loss by double digits is likely here as UNC's roll is simply too strong right now. 8* NORTH CAROLINA Thursday |
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11-09-16 | Toledo -6.5 v. Northern Illinois | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 16 m | Show | |
12-0 MAC Smash - Rickenbach CFB Game #105 Wednesday - 8* Toledo Rockets (-) vs Northern Illinois Huskies @ U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago, IL @ 8 ET - Even though the Huskies have won 2 straight games they still have only 3 wins on the season and those victories came against teams that have a combined record of 2-14 in the MAC. As for Toledo, they are 7-2 on the season with the only two losses to BYU and Ohio U. and those teams are combined 12-7 on the season. Not only are the Rockets the superior team this season, this is also not a true home game for the Huskies since it's being played in Chicago. Regardless of the venue, the road team has covered 5 straight in the Toledo/Northern Illinois series and this is a major revenge spot for the Rockets since the Huskies have gotten the SU win in 6 straight meetings! Toledo has thrived away from home as they are on a 12-1 ATS run their last 13 away from the Glass Bowl. The Rockets also entered this season with a 6-1 ATS mark when playing with revenge and facing an opponent with a winning percentage of .600 or less. In weekday road games, Toledo is on a 7-0 ATS run after last Wednesday's easy cover at Akron. Combining that mark with the aforementioned 5-0 ATS mark in favor of the road team in the L5 Rockets/Huskies match-ups and that means a 12-0, 100% PERFECT ATS mark is being tested Wednesday night. With this number still available at -6.5 even with a potential line move upward it should still be well within range for an easy cover. 6 of the 7 Rockets wins this season have come by 14 points or more. 8* TOLEDO Wednesday |
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11-08-16 | Western Michigan v. Kent State OVER 55 | 37-21 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
ESPN2 Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #103/104 Tuesday - 8* OVER the total in Kent State Golden Flashes vs Western Michigan Broncos @ 7:30 ET - There will be some rain in the Kent, Ohio area this evening. However, it is not expected to be heavy and the winds are not expected to be a factor. The weather "issue" is helping to keep this total lower than it should be. Kent State was already going to be in trouble trying to stop the 9-0 Broncos but things look even more bleak now that the Golden Flashes lost Nate Holley, senior free safety. He is not only one of the top defensive players for Kent State, his 12.3 tackles per game ranks him 2nd in the entire nation! Kent State's short-handed defense will be trying to stop a Western Michigan offense that ranks in the top 15 nationally for efficiency as the Broncos average 6.8 yards per play. Western Michigan is averaging an incredible 45.2 points per game this season. The reason I am not laying the big points with the Broncos however is because they could struggle some with Kent State being fired up at home to host a ranked and undefeated MAC team. The Golden Flashes D is going to struggle to get stops (especially without Holley) but QB Nick Holley (his twin brother) converted over from running back earlier this season and he gives Kent State a dual threat QB. In fact, Holley has 668 rushing yards and 775 passing yards on the season so it's hard for a defense to know what's coming. Of course I am the first to admit the Golden Flashes numbers on offense are not that impressive but they do play better at home than on the road. Kent State had averaged 30 points per game at home in their first 3 home games this season before they struggled two weeks ago versus Ohio University. They responded after that game by putting up 27 points in an upset win at Central Michigan and I expect the offense to build off that performance here. This one should shape up to be a 45-24 type game with the Broncos improving to 10-0. The line is right near that spread range but the posted total is two touchdowns below that and I won't hesitate to step in here. The over has gone 3-1 this season when the Broncos are off of a win against a MAC foe. The over is 4-2 this season in games where the Golden Flashes are an underdog. Look for more of the same Tuesday night. 8* OVER in Kent State |
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11-07-16 | Bills +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 25-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
MNF Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #473 Monday - 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:30 ET - The ability to get a full TD here with a dangerous underdog in a strong situation is raising this pick to Top Play rating for me. Yes, Seattle is a tough place to play and has a raucous crowd but 2 of their 3 home wins this season have come by just 2 points. Also, since their bye week in early October, the Seahawks have been outgained in each of their last 3 games. Seattle went 1-1-1 in this stretch with the lone win by just 2 points over Atlanta. Also, it is worth noting that the Seahawks most recent trip to the Super Bowl was a loss in February 2015 to the Patriots. Up next for Seattle is a trip to New England. It's impossible for Seattle coach Pete Carroll and company to not be "peeking ahead" a bit to that game. The Seahawks are 3-8 ATS in games played in Weeks 5 through 9 the past 3 seasons. The Bills are 7-3 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Buffalo is also a perfect 3-0 ATS (and SU!) their last 3 against the NFC West and also a perfect 6-0 ATS (and SU!) the last 6 times they have entered a game off of back to back losses. That's a 9-0, 100% run that supports an outright upset here and I am grabbing the points here. Look for the Bills rushing ability (with LeSean McCoy now healthier) to be a difference maker here as they are averaging 154 rushing yards per game (compared to Seattle's 81.4 per game on the ground). With solid defense (allowed 16.2 points per game their last 5 games prior to bad loss to NE) and a strong ground game, the Bills have the right recipe for hanging tough with the Seahawks at CenturyLink Field in Seattle. 10* BUFFALO BILLS Monday Night |
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11-06-16 | Broncos v. Raiders -110 | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #472 Sunday - 8* Oakland Raiders (-) vs Denver Broncos @ 8:30 ET - This is another contrarian play of mine as you will likely see most people lining up on Denver here as they just don't believe in Oakland yet. The fact is that the Raiders are for real and they also have a bye week on deck and this is their only home game between the home games on October 16th and November 27th. That is a span of 6 weeks so, undoubtedly, Raider Nation is going to be going absolutely nuts for this home night game against a division rival who just also happens to be the defending Super Bowl champs. The point is that this is THE GAME for Oakland this season and they are coming off of a game where they won on the road and held a yardage edge of 626 to 270. Yes the Raiders are starting to put it all together and they also want to make amends for the fact that they had their worst game of the year (to Kansas City) in their most recent home game three weeks ago. The Broncos rank 27th in the league on offense based on yardage. Their defense is the only reason they're still having a solid season and that D has also helped lead to points for Denver. The fact is that, statistically, this is a challenged Broncos offense. Yes they hold the D edge here over Oakland but the Raiders have a huge edge on offense in addition to having the home field edge for this big divisional match-up. I realize Oakland is only 1-2 SU (and 0-3 ATS) at home this season but this is going to be a wild atmosphere at the Coliseum tonight and the Raiders come in having won 5 of their last 6 games overall. The Broncos are on a 1-7 ATS run when off of a win against a division rival and they are off of back to back revenge-fueled wins over Houston (revenge against former QB Osweiler and head coach Kubiak's former team) and over San Diego (revenge for loss to division rival two weeks prior). In games where the Raiders are +3 to -3 this season, they have gone 5-1 ATS. Look for more of the same in this game that is priced as a "pick'em" match-up for the Sunday night game. 8* OAKLAND |
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11-06-16 | Colts v. Packers OVER 53.5 | Top | 31-26 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
Non-Conf Total of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #467/468 Sunday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Green Bay Packers vs Indianapolis Colts @ 4:25 ET - Look for both teams to move the ball up and down the field throughout this game. Considering that it is a November game at Lambeau Field the weather conditions couldn't be any better. The high today is expected to be in the upper 60s in Green Bay with light winds and clear skies. Simply a fantastic day and even though it will cool down once the sun starts going down, you simply couldn't ask for better weather conditions in Wisconsin in November! So weather won't limit the offenses here, what about the defenses? That is also unlikely. The Colts have given up an average of 28.8 points per game this season. The Packers defensive numbers have been helped by facing 4 of the worst offenses in the league: Jacksonville, Minnesota, the Giants, and Chicago. In their other 3 games the Packers have allowed an average of 30 points per game and there is no reason each team shouldn't get to the 28 to 31 point range in this game which will make for an easy over. The Packers have thrown the ball an average of 45 times per game in their last 4 games while running the ball an average of only 22 times per game their last 3 games. The Colts, led by Andrew Luck at QB and with T.Y. Hilton back at WR for this game, are also very much a pass-heavy team. Of course you want less running and a lot of passing with a play on the over and I expect both Packers QB Aaron Rodgers and Luck to be attacking downfield throughout this game as both defenses have plenty of question marks in the secondary. The Colts game stayed under the total last week but previously Indy was 6-1 to the over this season. Also, Indy is certainly going to be pushing hard all the way to the final whistle in this one as they have their bye week on deck. As an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points the Colts have gone 7-2 to the over. Indianapolis is also on a 13-4 run to the over in games played on a grass field. As a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, the Colts have gone 31-14 to the over. Each of the last 5 games in this series have gone over the total. Look for another one here. 10* OVER in Green Bay |
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11-06-16 | Saints v. 49ers +5 | Top | 41-23 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Contrarian Top Play - Rickenbach NFL Game #464 Sunday - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play San Francisco 49'ers (+) vs New Orleans Saints @ 4:05 ET - No one will want the 49'ers here but contrarian handicapping is something that has treated me very well in NFL through the years. The key to this play is the situational aspect and the corresponding line value. The Saints are off of a huge win at home as they knocked off Seattle at the Superdome. Now, New Orleans has to try to "get up" for a 49'ers team that has only won one game this season and comes into this week on a 6-game winning streak. Making matters worse for the Saints is that they have games against Denver and Carolina on deck. The Panthers are a division rival who was in the Super Bowl last year. The Broncos won the Super Bowl last year and lost it two years prior to that. The Seahawks were who won the Super Bowl that year over Denver and then Seattle lost the Super Bowl the next year. The point is that New Orleans has a stretch of 4 games here filled with teams that have been among the NFL's elite in recent seasons. In the middle of all this is a trip to the West Coast to face a 49'ers team that has been among the worst in the league this season. If ever there is a spot for the Saints to fall flat this is absolutely it and I feel strongly that San Francisco is ripe to take advantage. The 49'ers will be ready (both mentally and physically) after a much needed bye week. The Niners are on a 10-5 ATS run as a home dog. The Saints per game averages for the offense are 10 points less and 128 yards less when they are on the road compared to when they are home. Also, New Orleans is on an ugly 1-8 ATS skid as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. What is even more amazing about that is that the Saints have lost 7 of those 9 games outright! I definitely would not be surprised to see another outright upset here but certainly the value here is with the big points being offered to the 49'ers. 10* SAN FRANCISCO |
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11-06-16 | Lions +6.5 v. Vikings | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL Game #453 Sunday - 8* Detroit Lions (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - Look for the Lions to bounce back off of their first loss since October 2nd. Detroit had won 3 straight before losing by a TD at Houston last week. Part of what keyed the Lions 3-1 run has been winning the turnover battle as they have forced 6 turnovers in their last 4 games while only turning the ball over once in their last 4 games. Unlike Detroit, Minnesota is heading the wrong direction. The Vikings have lost back to back games and been outscored by a combined 41 to 20. Teams have found that the Vikes can be beat by blitzing and forcing Sam Bradford to either get rid of the ball quickly or take the sack. It has been an ugly 2 weeks for the Vikings since their bye and now the resignation of offensive coordinator Norv Turner adds to the unsettling times in Minnesota. The Vikings offense ranks as one of the worst in the league for yardage as they average only 293.3 yards per game. The Lions play this game with double revenge as they lost both games to the Vikings last season. One game was a 9 point defeat and the other was a 10 point defeat but the Lions have closed the gap on the Vikings in recent weeks and that is why there is great line value with underdog Detroit catching about a touchdown here with the current line on this game. Minnesota is on a short week here and they were outgained by 145 yards by the Bears on Monday Night! The Vikings are hungry to respond off of back to back losses but they will struggle with a Lions team that has the better offense in this match-up. Detroit smells "blood in the water" and can pull within a half game of the division leading Vikings and certainly the Lions are going to go "all out" as they have their bye week on deck. 8* DETROIT |
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11-06-16 | Eagles +3 v. Giants | 23-28 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL Game #455 Sunday - 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ New York Giants @ 1 ET - The Eagles have truly had just one bad game this season and yet they sit at only 4-3 on the year and really need to make a move this week if they're going to remain in contention in the NFC East. The Eagles had a horrible game at Washington that was inexcusable 3 weeks ago. Perhaps they were deflated because of the loss they never should have had against Detroit (tough late fumble was difference) the prior week. However, the Eagles then responded off the loss at Detroit by knocking off Minnesota and Philadelphia has been at their best against quality opposition. They beat Pittsburgh when they were 3-0 and the Vikings when they were 5-0. Though Philly fell short in OT at Dallas last week that was a tough loss as they led the game 20-10 in the third quarter and then the Eagles offense never even got a chance with the football in overtime. Needless to say, Philadelphia is fired up about this week's game and they are always tough on the Giants. In fact, the Eagles have covered 8 of their last 9 visits to New York! Also, Philly has beaten the Giants in both meetings each of the past two years. New York is off of their bye week but they've lost off of their bye week each of the last two seasons and the Giants are known for late season fades with a 33-60 ATS mark in November games! Also, their long-term mark when playing with extra rest is 10-18 ATS. The Eagles are 5-1 SU and ATS when off of a loss against a division rival and also 5-2 SU and ATS when they are a road dog of 3 points or less. The Giants are 1-9 ATS in the first of back to back home games. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-06-16 | Cowboys v. Browns +7.5 | 35-10 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL Game #458 Sunday - 8* Cleveland Browns (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - We've all heard the expression "on any given Sunday" and that certainly applies here. The Browns are the only team in the AFC that hasn't won two games yet this season and, in fact, remain winless at 0-8. The Cowboys are the only team in the NFC that hasn't lost two games yet this season as they enter this game at 7-1. So basically you have the best team in the NFC against the worst team in the entire league. What happens? It all come down to situational handicapping and, with the Cowboys off of yet another divisional win they should not have had, don't be surprised if the Browns surprise a lot of people Sunday. Dallas beat Philly last week but it took overtime and truly, had the Eagles not screwed up a late FG opportunity (and inexplicably punted) the Cowboys would not have won last week. Earlier this season Dallas beat the Redskins in a game where Washington was on the goal line ready to put the game away and go up by two scores and then a huge turnover occurred and the Cowboys had another divisional win they did not necessarily deserve. This is the time to fade Dallas. They are being lauded as one of the top teams in the league (and certainly deserve some credit) but they are leading the NFC East division even though they easily could be 0-3 in their divisional games on the year. By the way, their other wins came against 4 teams whose combined record is 10-19-1 on the season. Be careful just handing the Super Bowl trophy to the Cowboys. Their downfall will start this week (surprise to many) and certainly they have a tough upcoming schedule. As for the Browns, as bad as they have been, 4 of their last 7 losses have come by 6 points or less. Also, this is their first opportunity this season where they have been home for back to back weeks and 2 of their 3 home losses have come by 5 points or less. This is a hungry Cleveland team that views this game (a chance to knock off of a team with one of the best records in the league) as hosting a mini-Super Bowl so to speak. Dallas is 3-6 SU and ATS in November games the past two seasons. 8* CLEVELAND |
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11-05-16 | Utah State v. Wyoming -4 | Top | 28-52 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
MW Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #380 Saturday - 10* Top Play Wyoming Cowboys (-) vs Utah State Aggies @ 10:15 ET - Wyoming was as high as a 7 point fave but has now dropped to a -4 as of gameday morning. The line move is completely understood as many are looking to fade the Cowboys off of their big upset win over Boise State. The reason that angle does not concern me is four fold. 1) Utah State is not a good football team. 2) Wyoming is home for a 2nd straight week. 3) The Cowboys win over the Broncos was not the pinnacle of their season as they still have their sites set on winning the Mountain Division. 4) Revenge is a huge motivating factor and Wyoming has lost each of their last 4 match-ups with Utah State by an average margin of 30 points per defeat! As you can see, despite the big win over Boise last week, there is no way Wyoming is going to come out flat for this game. On the "off chance" that they did however, I would still expect coach Craig Bohl to rally the troops at half-time and this line is very manageable. I just don't see the Cowboys losing at home here and being able to lay just 4 is a huge value. Utah State has only 3 wins this season and those came against an FCS school, a Sun Belt team, and Fresno State - the worst MW team in the conference. The Aggies are off of a 40-13 demolishing loss at San Diego State last week and Utah State has gone 1-6 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed more than 35 points and are then facing a team who is off of back to back SU wins. In this case, the red hot Cowboys have won 4 straight games and the roll should continue Saturday. Wyoming is 8-1 ATS when they are off of back to back SU wins and facing a conference opponent. Also, the Cowboys are 5-1 ATS when they are a home favorite of more than 3 points and playing in a revenge opportunity versus and opponent off of a SU loss by a double digit margin. 10* WYOMING |
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11-05-16 | Alabama -7 v. LSU | 10-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
SEC Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Game #411 Saturday - 8* Alabama Crimson Tide (-) @ LSU Tigers @ 8 ET - The Tigers, as a sizable home dog here, are a very popular choice this week. Of course those who have followed me for years know I like to fade the masses and top ranked Alabama is one team that certainly is not going to fall apart just because they're playing a night game at LSU. The key to this selection is that there has been much talk about how well the Tigers have played since the Auburn loss and the subsequent firing of head coach Les Miles. However, LSU has played Missouri and Ole Miss in SEC action and those teams are a combined 1-8 in conference games this season! The other game was a non-conference game for LSU and they faced Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles are a C-USA team that had lost to UTSA by 23 points the prior week. The point is that LSU's "big" 3-0 run sans Miles has come against very weak opposition. On the season as a whole, Alabama has played a much tougher schedule than LSU has and the Tigers are facing a team that is better than they are on both sides of the ball. The Crimson Tide have won 5 straight in this series and they covered 4 of those 5 games. Also, Bama entered this season with this interesting stat in tow. They are 12-2 ATS when they are on the road off of a straight-up win and they are facing an opponent who is off of a straight-up win by a double digit margin. Lay the points while the masses are salivating at getting an over-rated LSU team as a home dog of a TD. The Tigers are a dog in this range for a reason and I smell a punishing road victory come in this one as it is Roll Tide Roll. 8* ALABAMA |
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11-05-16 | Florida State v. NC State +6.5 | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CFB Game #346 Saturday - 8* NC State Wolfpack (+) vs Florida State Seminoles @ 7 ET - Even though NC State is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings with FSU, the Wolfpack have lost each of the last three meetings by double digit margins. That said, NC State is definitely hungry and wants to make the most of this opportunity to exact revenge at home. The Wolfpack are certainly catching Florida State at the perfect time to do just that. The Seminoles are off of a hard-fought emotionally draining loss to Clemson last week. It is hard to imagine the Noles having a lot left in the tank (mentally and physically) after suffering their third loss in the last six weeks. The Seminoles just haven't been able to get over the hump this season and they now face a Wolfpack team that has "nothing to lose" and will "leave it all on the field" in this one. Assuredly, the Noles are going to get NC State's best effort and the Wolfpack thrive in home games that are projected to be higher scoring. NC State has gone 13-6 SU and ATS in home games with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points. Also, the Wolfpack are hosting a Seminoles team that is 0-3 ATS the last 3 times when it is a road game that follows playing Clemson. Hitting the road after the emotional loss to the Tigers, look for that run to go to 0-4 ATS. This situation favors NC State as they are playing a 2nd straight home game, off of a loss, and they are allowing only 95 rushing yards per game at home. Florida State is on an 8-14 ATS run as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. 8* NC STATE |
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11-05-16 | Virginia Tech v. Duke OVER 54 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
Top Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Game #335/336 Saturday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Duke Blue Devils vs Virginia Tech Hokies @ 3:30 ET - The Blue Devils are off of a 38-35 loss at Georgia Tech as they battled back from a big deficit but still fell short. Duke had 559 yards of offense last week and they're perfectly capable of putting up big numbers when they're not facing a tough D (Louisville 3 weeks ago) or playing in a rain storm (Army 4 weeks ago). Other than those 2 games, the Blue Devils have averaged 292.8 passing yards per game on the season! That is significant in looking at this match-up because Virginia Tech (other than their game at UNC played in a rain storm 4 weeks ago) has allowed an average of 342 passing yards per game in their last 4 games. The strength of the Hokies this season (it's a new era in Blacksburg) has truly been the offense and that O (not including the game played during hurricane Matthew) has averaged 477.6 yards per game! Duke is not going to "lay down" at home but the Blue Devils defense can not stop the Hokies. With ideal weather conditions also expected for this one, there is no reason not to expect a back and forth high-scoring affair. In games where Virginia Tech was a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points, the over has gone 3-1 (75%). Also, other than the hurricane Matthew game, Hokies games are 5-2 (71%) to the over this season! The Blue Devils are 4-1 (80%) to the over as a home dog of 10.5 to 14 points and also 4-1 (80%) to the over the last 5 times they have entered a game off of back to back SU losses. 10* OVER in Duke |
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11-05-16 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State +12 | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #402 Saturday - 8* Mississippi State Bulldogs (+) vs Texas A & M Aggies @ Noon ET - Under head coach Kevin Sumlin, the Aggies typical late season fade at the betting window seems to be underway. Texas A & M has lost 4 straight games ATS as they head into a tough road match-up at Mississippi State. The Aggies last 3 seasons under Sumlin have seen them finish up on a 2-7 ATS run twice and a 1-6 ATS run once. That's a combined 5-20 ATS mark and this season, the Aggies are already on an 0-4 ATS run with four regular season games to go. As a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points, Texas A & M is on a 1-6 ATS run the past 4 seasons combined. Both of these teams are strong on offense with question marks on defense. That said, I'll gladly grab the home dog that is getting double digits as the Aggies are still over-rated in my opinion. The Bulldogs are only 3-5 on the season but 4 of their 5 losses came by a TOTAL of just 13 points. Mississippi State is on an 8-4 ATS run as an underdog and they will turn this one into a dogfight in Starkville! The Bulldogs do have Alabama on deck but they know they need to win this to still have a shot at making a run at a bowl game and, surprisingly, they are on a 5-0 ATS run in games that are the week prior to facing the Crimson Tide. Look for that record to improve to 6-0 ATS Saturday. 8* MISSISSIPPI STATE |