Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-20-16 | Bears v. Packers -7.5 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 23 h 42 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #302 Thursday - 8* Green Bay Packers (-) vs Chicago Bears @ 8:25 ET - Green Bay is off of an embarrassing home loss to the Cowboys Sunday. There is plenty of reason to believe that the Packers bounce back huge on Thursday night. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers has an incredible record of 16-3 SU and ATS in divisional games when the Packers are off of an ATS loss. That's right, Rodgers and The Pack get the cover over 80% of the time in situations like this. Green Bay is motivated about much more than just the loss last week to Dallas. The Packers also haven't forgotten last season's Thursday night game against the Bears. Green Bay came into that game having won and covered each of their last four meetings with Chicago. The Packers were an 8 point favorite in that game and they not only failed to cover, they lost the game outright. Worse yet, it was a game on Thanksgiving Night and it was the game during which Brett Favre's number was retired at half-time! Green Bay is fired up about getting a little payback against a division rival and the Bears come in on a horrible skid as they are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. The Packers are on a 10-5 ATS run in divisional home games where they are favored. Also, even with that Thanksgiving loss to Chicago, Green Bay is 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10 games against the Bears. Chicago is on a long-term 7-21 ATS run in road games with a posted total between 45.5 and 49 points. The Packers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Packers need to bounce back here after last week's loss, the Bears struggles have continued, and the revenge angle is a BIG ONE for a hungry home team here. Lay it! 8* GREEN BAY PACKERS minus the points Thursday Night |
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10-20-16 | Cubs v. Dodgers +1.5 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Top Side - Rickenbach MLB Game #906 Thursday - 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line +1.5 runs vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:05 ET - Even though Kenta Maeda did not impress against the Cubs on Saturday, he did allow only 4 hits in his 4 innings of work and I am expecting much bigger things from him now that he is back home in the pitcher-friendly confines of Dodger Stadium. Maeda, even with the sub-par start Saturday, is 14-8 in night games and opponents are hitting only .217 against him under the lights. Also, Maeda has compiled a solid 3.22 ERA in home games this season. Interestingly, Maeda's start against the Cubs on Saturday was the first time he had ever faced the Cubs. He struggled some on the first pass through the lineup but after that the Cubs went 0 for 8 against him. That certainly could be a sign of things to come for Maeda in his next start against Chicago especially since he now faces them at home. Jon Lester gets the start for the Cubs tonight and he was tough on the Dodgers Saturday but now faces them at LA. Lester did allow 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent road start and, overall, was not as dominant on the road as he was at home this season. Look for the Dodgers sticks to bounce back after being on the wrong end of last night's 10-2 final. Though it would not surprise me to see the Dodgers win tonight's game outright I do feel that there is great line value with laying a small price to have them at +1.5 runs. 6 of the Dodgers last 16 games have been one-run games and, in what could very likely be a tight, lower-scoring game, I'll grab the +1.5 runs with Los Angeles. 10* DODGERS on the RUN LINE Thursday evening |
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10-20-16 | Miami (Fla) +6 v. Virginia Tech | 16-37 | Loss | -102 | 22 h 16 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #303 THURSDAY - 8* Miami Hurricanes (+) @ Virginia Tech Hokies @ 7 ET - The Canes are on a 4-1 ATS run the last 5 years in match-ups with the Hokies. Of course that featured head coach Al Golden versus head coach Frank Beamer. But that offers perhaps even more value to this match-up in terms of backing the Hurricanes. Miami replaced a struggling Al Golden with a head coach, Mark Richt, who had a 145-51 record heading into this season. Virginia Tech replaced a future Hall of Famer with a head coach, Justin Fuente, who had a 26-23 record heading into this season. That is no disrespect to Fuente rather it is just to show the two different situations these guys walked into and, with both teams off of disappointing efforts last week, it is more likely that Richt's Hurricanes bounce back. Miami has lost back to back games and they have not lost three straight since 2014. As for the Hokies, they are trying to avoid back to back losses but that is something that has yet to happen this season but happened on multiple occasions in both 2015 and 2014. The point is that the odds certainly favor that is the Canes who bounce back here. These teams have faced similar schedules this season in terms of strength of schedule and both teams have been solid on defense with only 4.2 yards per play allowed so far this season. The difference is in the offensive efficiency as Miami is one of the top teams in the nation with 7 yards per play while Virginia Tech ranks in the lower half of team in the nation with their offense producing only 5.5 yards per play. The Hokies defense also was helped statistically because they recently played North Carolina in horrible weather conditions because of Hurricane Matthew. Note that in their other recent games, Virginia Tech was scorched for 561 overall yards at Syracuse and 362 passing yards at the hands of East Carolina. Other than the game against the Tar Heels (D helped by poor weather conditions), the Hokies defense has faced 3 respectable opponents this season. In those games (Syracuse, East Carolina, and Tennessee), Virginia Tech has allowed an average of 31 points per game! As for Miami, they are allowing an average of only 14 points per game this season and the Hurricanes have not allowed more than 21 points in any game this season. Also, there have been 6 outright upsets in the last 13 meetings between these teams but certainly I am grabbing the points although an outright win would not be a big surprise. The Hokies are on a 5-10 ATS run as a home favorite and this line has climbed up to very near a full touchdown. The Hurricanes are on a 6-2 ATS run in road games with a posted total between 49.5 and 56 points. The Hokies are on an 0-4 ATS run in home games with a posted total between 49.5 and 56 points. 8* MIAMI HURRICANES plus the points early Thursday evening |
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10-17-16 | Jets +8 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-28 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #277 Monday - 10* Top Play New York Jets (+) @ Arizona Cardinals @ 8:30 ET - The Jets have an ugly record on the season and the Cardinals are getting QB Carson Palmer back under center for this one. However, the keys to this match-up lie a little deeper in the details. The Jets have played a tougher schedule than have the Cards. Both teams faced the Bills but taking a look at the rest of their schedule, note that Arizona played New England when they were without Tom Brady and then their other three games have not featured a single team that currently has a winning record. As for New York, the Jets have lost three straight games (SU and ATS) but all 3 defeats came against teams that currently have a winning record on the season. In fact, those 3 teams have a combined 11-5 mark on the year. The other key to the value here with the Jets (currently priced at +7.5 in this game) is the fact that head coach Todd Bowles played under Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians when he was at Temple from '82 to '85. Also, Bowles was the defensive coordinator at Arizona (under HC Arians) in 2013 and 2014. There is a little extra motivation, to say the least, for Bowles in this match-up. Additionally, he has some additional knowledge of the Cardinals personnel from having recently coached there. In terms of trends in this match-up, note that Arizona is a long-term ugly 1-11 ATS in games where they are a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. Also, the Cardinals are known for faltering on Monday night with an 0-6 ATS run in their last 6 and also they are off of a big Thursday night win over the 49'ers and they are on a 1-6 ATS run the week after facing San Francisco. Arizona also has a big divisional game on deck with Seattle so it is hard for the Cards not to look ahead here. The Jets are the hungrier, more motivated team here and they also are getting significant points which makes for excellent line value here. The Cardinals have some key injuries at the guard positions on the offensive line and the Jets have a strong defensive line and will win this game in the trenches. 10* NEW YORK JETS plus the big points in Monday Night Football |
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10-16-16 | Colts +3 v. Texans | 23-26 | Push | 0 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #275 Sunday - 8* Indianapolis Colts (+) @ Houston Texans @ 8:30 ET - Very interesting match-up with the better offense and bad defense - Colts - taking on the stronger defense and weak offense - Texans. Certainly the Colts have had issues with pass protection but the Texans defense is definitely missing JJ Watt. So what is the key match-up in my opinion? It is simply Andrew Luck versus Brock Osweiler. In my opinion, there is no way I am taking Osweiler over Luck under the Sunday night lights. The Colts play-calling on offense will be predicated around the fact that the line is struggling to protect Luck. Therefore we could some quick handoffs and quick short passing routes or screen passes which will help keep Luck on his feet plus will help keep the Texans defense off balance. That said, I certainly look for Luck to be the one that "makes plays" in this game while Osweiler continues to struggle for the Texans. Indianapolis plays this game with revenge from a home loss to Houston last December. Prior to that defeat the Colts had won 23 of the last 27 meetings. The Colts are on a 9-2 ATS run in games played in weeks 5 through 9. The Texans are 0-3 SU and ATS in home games where the posted total is between 45.5 and 49 points. Simply put, the Houston offense won't be able to keep up with Andrew Luck and Company in this one as the Colts get revenge for last December's home loss. 8* INDIANAPOLIS Sunday Night |
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10-16-16 | Falcons +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
Top Contrarian Play - Rickenbach NFL Game #271 Sunday - 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ Seattle @ 4:25 ET - Seattle's defense looks great statistically so far this season. However, they have played some of the worst teams in terms of offensive production so far this year. Miami, LA, San Francisco, and the Jets are hardly a "who's who" of offensive powerhouses. That said, if any offense can march into CenturyLink Field and not be bothered by the noise in Seattle, it is Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Atlanta has the number one offense in the league this season and they have helped lead the way to a 4-1 start to the season for the Falcons. The other key to this play is the fact that Atlanta head coach Dan Quinn was the defensive coordinator with the Seahawks in 2013 and 2014. This the first meeting between these teams since he's been gone from Seattle. You better believe that Quinn wants this game badly and you'd better believe that he has an edge in terms of understanding the personnel and systems of the Seahawks. That said, the fact we are getting about a full TD here with the much better offensive team is too good to pass up. Seattle is still a quality football team but they are regressing in my opinion. They went from SB win in 2013 to SB loss to 2014 to NFC Championship loss in 2015. This season the regression will continue in my opinion but we just haven't seen it yet due to their soft schedule thusfar. The Hawks are off of their bye week but they do have a big game with division rival Arizona on deck. Also, the Falcons don't even want a bye right now as they simply keep on rolling. Their win at Denver last was their fourth straight upset victory. Even though the Falcons are on the road again for a 2nd straight week they simply stayed out west to prepare for this game. This Atlanta team has bonded together very well and this road trip will continue their surge. They are on a 9-1 ATS run their last 10 in the underdog role. The Seahawks are 1-6 ATS when they are at home and playing with rest. Seattle is also 1-5 ATS when they have the Cardinals on deck. The Falcons are 8-1 ATS off of a SU dog win when facing a non-divisional opponent. This is a classic case of an undervalued road dog against an overvalued home fave and that has created generous line value here. 10* ATLANTA in Sunday's late afternoon action |
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10-16-16 | Cowboys v. Packers -4 | 30-16 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Blowout of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #274 Sunday - 8* Green Bay Packers (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - Green Bay burned me a little last week as they had a big lead on the Giants and let up a little bit and then the Packers ended up being a "push" in their game last week for most even though they held New York to only 219 yards of offense. The Packers are still on a 19-9 ATS run as a non-divisional home favorite and they are known for giving Dallas trouble. Green Bay is on a 4-1 ATS run overall against the Cowboys and the Packers are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at Lambeau Field hosting Dallas. The Packers are 6-0 ATS as home favorites against the NFC East. Green Bay is also 6-1 ATS when facing an opponent off of a straight-up dog win. The Cowboys definitely looked good in their outright upset win over the Bengals last week but this is their first game this season against a team with a winning record and Dallas is on a 4-8 ATS run in games against teams with an above .500 record. Also, the Cowboys are on a long-term 17-27 ATS run as road dogs in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. The Packers are on a 6-1 ATS run in games where they are a home fave in a range of 3.5 to 7 points and also 5-0 ATS in home games where the posted total is between 45.5 and 49 points. Combining those trends with the ones above favoring the Packers. we are testing a combined 28-3 ATS run in favor of the home fave. 8* GREEN BAY Sunday late afternoon |
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10-16-16 | Ravens +3.5 v. Giants | Top | 23-27 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
EARLY Top Side - Rickenbach NFL Game #253 Sunday - 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (+) @ New York Giants @ 1 ET - Ravens offense struggled last week in a home loss to the Redskins but Baltimore was limited by gusty winds in that game. The weather conditions today in East Rutherford, New Jersey will be beautiful and I expect the Ravens to take full advantage. Baltimore has the better pass protection (5.0% sack %) so far this season and the Giants have struggled to get to the quarterback (1.9% sack %) so far this year. Baltimore has also had the better defense this season with the #3 ranked D based on yardage while the Giants defense ranks only in the middle of the pack so far this year. The Giants were fortunate to get the ATS push last week at Green Bay as they only had 219 yards of offense in that game. This followed a dismal Monday night performance at Minnesota where the Giants only put 10 points on the board. Look for their struggles on offense to continue here as Baltimore improves on a 4-1 ATS (and SU) mark in their last five meetings with the Giants. The Ravens are on a long-term 81-33 SU run in games against teams with a losing record while the Giants are on a short-term 1-13 SU run in games against teams with a winning record. There is plenty of line value here with grabbing the points as Baltimore is 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog while the Giants are already 0-2 ATS this season when favored in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Ravens entered this season with an 8-0 ATS mark when they are road dogs of 3or more points and their facing a team off of a SU loss. That system is in play in this one! Also, the Ravens are on a 7-0 ATS run when they are off of back to back losses (SU and ATS) and they are facing an opponent whose winning percentage is .750 or less. Baltimore is also 8-1 ATS as a non-divisional dog of 2 points or more when they are off of an ATS loss by double digits. Last week the Ravens were -4 and they lost outright by 6 points so this system is in play as well as they missed the cover by 10 points last week. Additionally they entered the season on an 8-1 ATS run when facing an NFC opponent off of a SU loss. The Giants have a trip to London on deck as an additional distraction here. 10* BALTIMORE Sunday |
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10-16-16 | Eagles -2.5 v. Redskins | 20-27 | Loss | -119 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #267 Sunday - 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Washington Redskins @ 1 ET - Despite outgaining the Lions by over 100 yards last week, the Eagles came up on the wrong end of the scoreboard and suffered their first loss of the season. That sets this one up nicely in terms of the line value because the Redskins are off of a tight win at Baltimore in a game that clearly could have gone either way last week. Washington was fortunate in terms of the weather (gusty winds) limiting the Ravens offense last week. Prior to that game, the Redskins had allowed 27 points per game in their first 4 games of the season. Washington should prove to be no match for an Eagles team that has proven to be very well balanced early this season and currently ranks among the top offensive and defensive units in the league so far this season. After a tough loss last week, the Eagles will be flying all over the field in their first divisional game of the season. Philly is on a 25-14 ATS run in road games with a posted total in a range of 42.5 to 45 points. Washington is on a 16-30 ATS run in home games with a posted total in a range of 42.5 to 45 points. The Eagles defense (allowing only 266.8 yards per game) will key the road win here. 8* PHILADELPHIA early Sunday |
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10-15-16 | Texas-San Antonio v. Rice +3.5 | Top | 14-13 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
C-USA Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #170 Saturday - 10* Top Play Rice Owls (+) vs UTSA Roadrunners @ 7 ET Saturday - UTSA is over-rated right now and Rice is under-rated. As a result, there is solid line value here with the home dog. The Roadrunners are off of a big win over Southern Miss but it was a deceiving final score. UT-San Antonio beat the Golden Eagles by a 55-32 final score but gave up 557 yards in the game! The key was 3 Southern Miss turnovers and also that game was a home game for UTSA. Now the Roadrunners take to the road where they have lost both of their games this season and certainly they are not known for being road warriors. Overall, UTSA is on a 3-9 ATS run as a favorite. Rice is off of a much needed bye week and they are playing this game with revenge. A loss to the Roadrunners last season cost the Owls a chance at a bowl game. Rice hasn't forgotten that and they, of course, have the added motivation of being one of just 2 FBS schools (Miami-OH is the other) that are winless on the season. Rice has played a much tougher schedule than UTSA has so far this season and that is a key to evaluating where these teams are really "at" right now. That said, the markets have a false read in my opinion. The line opened up around a pick'em and then went to UTSA -4. The Roadrunners simply aren't worthy of this line move. UT-San Antonio has allowed at least 445 yards per game in three straight games and Rice has won 3 of the 4 all-time meetings between these teams. Even though the Owls stats look very bad, they have played a much tougher schedule than UTSA and they are not only off of a bye, they also have an FCS school on deck so there will be no lookahead here. The Roadrunners have the full attention of the Owls. Rice is on an 8-3 ATS run in their games against teams with a losing record and the Owls are also a perfect 3-0 ATS when off of a bye week. Look for the Roadrunners to drop to 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games. UTSA simply does not travel well and they're going to have their hands full with an angry Owls team off of their bye week. 10* RICE OWLS Saturday evening |
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10-15-16 | North Carolina v. Miami (Fla) -6.5 | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 37 m | Show | |
ACC Beatdown - Rickenbach CFB Game #140 Saturday - 8* Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs North Carolina Tar Heels @ 3:30 ET - Both of these teams are off of a loss but it is the Canes who are the team that is likely to bounce back huge. The limiting factor for the Tar Heels is a weak defense. Yes the numbers from last week look good for the North Carolina defense but that had to do with bad weather due to Hurricane Matthew pounding the area. Prior to that game UNC had given up at least 421 yards in 4 of their first 5 games. To put that in perspective in terms of Saturday's match-up, note that the Hurricanes have allowed an average of only 284 yards per game on the season. Miami (FL) has given up an average of only 12.8 points per game. The home team has covered 9 of the last 12 match-ups between these teams and Miami has revenge from an ugly loss at North Carolina last season. Miami is on a 9-3 run as a home favorite and also a perfect 3-0 ATS run when off of a SU loss. After last week's tight loss to Florida State, the Hurricanes need to respond with a W and the Canes head coach Richt has an incredible 90-45 (67%) ATS mark in SU wins. So if you like the Hurricanes to win here, the odds are you like them to cover as well. I also like the line move here as this line was up near 10 earlier this week and this line has now come down to a -6.5 as of Friday night. Great line value for the home favorite here. 8* MIAMI-FLORIDA Saturday afternoon |
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10-15-16 | Kent State v. Miami (OH) +1.5 | 14-18 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #174 - Miami-Ohio Redhawks (+) vs Kent State Golden Flashes @ 2:30 ET - The Redhawks are one of just two winless FBS schools remaining (Rice is the other) and this is the perfect spot for Miami-Ohio to get into the win column. Yes, they have injury issues at QB but even if Billy Bahl does not play look for them to fare just fine here on Saturday at home against Kent State. Keep in mind, last week it was a tough road start for a freshman QB but should Noah Wezensky get the start again, it will be his third game and he was much better at home two weeks ago then he was last week on the road. Miami-Ohio, statistically, has been just as good as Kent State this season but they Redhawks just don't have a win yet to show for it. The home team has won 5 of the 7 meetings between these teams but here we are getting line value because of the Redhawks 0-6 record on the season. Miami-Ohio is on a 14-9 ATS run as an underdog. Miami-Ohio also is on a 5-1 ATS run in their games against conference foes with a winning percentage of .333 or less and the Golden Flashes come into this game with a 2-4 record on the season. Look for the Redhawks to get revenge for last season's 20-14 loss at Kent State. Miami-Ohio almost rallied for the win in that road game but threw a late pick in the end zone with about a minute to go in the game. The Redhawks net yards per game this season is only -3.3 and they certainly deserve much better than an 0-6 mark on the season. They will take advantage of a Kent State team that has one of the worst offenses in the nation (ranked #122 for yards per game). 8* MIAMI-OHIO Saturday afternoon |
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10-14-16 | Ottawa v. Hamilton -2.5 | Top | 30-29 | Loss | -119 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
Game of the Week Friday - Rickenbach CFL Game #280 - 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-) vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 7 ET - With all the strong records out West, the teams in the East are still battling it out for a playoff spot even though their records certainly do not impress. That said, this is a huge game as it is the first of a home-and-home set between these two divisional rivals and there are some key tangibles that have me backing the home team here. Hamilton was in a similar spot with Ottawa last season and the Redblacks took both regular season meetings late in the year which helped them earn home field edge for their playoff match-up. The result was a 3rd straight win for the Redblacks over the Ti-Cats and that post-season defeat (and 0-3 finish versus Ottawa) certainly resonates loudly with Hamilton to this day. That makes this a huge revenge spot for the Tiger-Cats and they are off of their bye week. This is why, even though they have some injury issues, Hamilton is the play here as Jeremiah Masoli steps in at QB for the injured Zach Collaros. Masoli went 3-3 as the starter earlier this season and the extra week helped he and the Tiger-Cats get fully prepared for this game as they also signed some players to help out at key positions after a few injuries narrowed the roster a bit. The Redblacks certainly are not without their own injury issues including star wideout Chris Williams who is truly irreplaceable. He is simply that good! This will hurt the Redblacks who have won just 3 of their last 10 games and have decided to go back to veteran QB Henry Burris. The problem with that is he simply wasn't that effective earlier this season and, in my opinion, it's going to prove to be "too little, too late" for Ottawa as they take on a rested, hungry, and revenge-minded Hamilton team in this one. The Tiger-Cats enter this game off of back to back losses and that is a situation that has seen them go 6-3 ATS the past three seasons including a perfect 2-0 this season. A lot of points expected here and the Redblacks are on a long-term 11-20 ATS run in road games with a posted total of 52 points or more. 10* HAMILTON Friday |
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10-13-16 | Broncos v. Chargers +3 | 13-21 | Win | 111 | 59 h 28 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher Thursday - Rickenbach NFL Game #104 - 8* San Diego Chargers (+) vs Denver Broncos @ 8:25 ET - Many are likely to be looking at the Broncos here off of a home loss. However, I correctly faded Denver with the Falcons last week and I am going to do it again with the Chargers this week. Broncos rookie QB Paxton Lynch proved that it may be awhile before he's ready to step in as a solid NFL starter. That means the return of QB Trevor Siemian this week even though his non-throwing shoulder could still be an impact for him. Also, keep in mind, these teams are nearly even statistically so far this season. Even though the Chargers are only 1-4 on the season, they lost their first game of the season in overtime and they come into this game on a 3-game losing streak where the 3 defeats have come by a total of just 8 points. The point is that San Diego has been in every game. Though the Broncos D allows an average of 74 yards per game less than the Chargers, the San Diego offense is averaging 47 yards per game more than Denver's O. That said, considering we have home field here and we have a veteran QB in Philip Rivers going against an injured rookie in Siemian, I like my chances for the upset here. The Chargers are on a 7-2 ATS run when off of a SU loss against a division rival. Though they got the cover last week they did lose the game by 3 points at Oakland last week. The Broncos have a history of underestimating foes and with all of their past success against the Chargers (5 straight wins dating back to 2013 post-season), they could get caught underestimating just how dangerous this 1-4 San Diego team is. Denver is on a long-term 56-77 ATS run in their games against teams with a losing record. The Broncos offensive line was shaky last week and the defense was exposed by the high-powered attack of Atlanta. Trust me, the Chargers were paying attention to both of those areas and can take advantage at home on Thursday night. 8* SAN DIEGO CHARGERS |
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10-12-16 | Appalachian State -9.5 v. UL-Lafayette | 24-0 | Win | 100 | 36 h 49 m | Show | |
ESPN2 Smash Pass Wednesday - Rickenbach CFB Game #101 - 8* Appalachian State Mountaineers (-) @ UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns @ 8 ET - This line opened up at a 10.5 and got bumped up to a 12 in the early activity on Sunday evening and then has since dropped to a 9.5 as of early Tuesday morning. The original line and movement was correct in my opinion. The Mountaineers should blast the Ragin' Cajuns. UL Lafayette has major issues. They're not getting consistent QB play and they brought in a number of junior college transfers in the off-season (hasn't worked out well) and then fired their defensive coordinator after the first game of the season. The fact is that this is a program in disarray as head coach Mark Hudspeth doesn't have a good handle on his own team and his own coaching staff. They will be no match for what is arguably the top team in the Sun Belt Conference as they try to trade blows with Appalachian State on Wednesday night. The Mountaineers are an experienced team and a physical team that can bully a team like UL Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns fell to 4-8 last year and it just seems that Hudspeth and company have lost control of this program and they are going to continue heading the wrong direction. On the other side you have a Mountaineers team that went from 4 wins to 7 wins to 11 wins the past three seasons! Even though Appalachian State is only 3-2 this season, that is because they played SEC foe Tennessee and ACC foe Miami in non-conference action. Those are big programs for a Sun Belt team to face but Mountaineers head coach Scott Satterfield is building the program at Appalachian State and he knows that facing teams like that is all part of the equation. In their conference opener, the Mountaineers dominated Georgia State and held them to 241 total yards of offense while forcing 4 turnovers. Appalachian State has defeated the Ragin' Cajuns by at least 19 points in each of their two meetings the past two seasons and I feel the point spread here is indeed at least a touchdown less than it should be. The Mountaineers have not turned the ball over more than once in a game this season. UL Lafayette has 8 turnovers in their last 3 games. The Ragin' Cajuns also have gone 1-4 ATS as home dogs when they are facing a team who is off of a straight-up win by a double digit margin. The Mountaineers beat Georgia State by 14 earlier this month and they can blast UL Lafayette by more than that here. As a home dog of 7.5 to 10 points the Ragin' Cajuns have gone 0-2 ATS. As road favorite, Appalachian State has gone 5-2 ATS and this is their first ever Wednesday game and the Mountaineers will go "all out" as they know they are in the spotlight with a rare weeknight game on ESPN2 where it is the only football game on TV (unlike typical Thursdays and Fridays). 8* APPALACHIAN STATE |
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10-11-16 | Nationals v. Dodgers -1.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
Run Line Rout Tuesday - Rickenbach MLB 8* Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs -105 vs Washington Nationals @ 5:05 ET - Yes, Clayton Kershaw is on short rest and yes he was not overly sharp against the Nationals in Game One of this series. However, he has a history of performing well on short rest and the ace left-hander has also been dominant in home starts! It will be a big difference for him pitching tonight at Dodger Stadium where, since May 1st his numbers are nearly unbelievable. Kershaw, in 61 innings spanning 8 home starts has allowed a TOTAL OF 2 RUNS! This equates to an unheard of 0.30 ERA in his last 8 outings at Dodger Stadium. That said, the Nationals Joe Ross is unlikely to be able to match-up well in this one. Ross has a 5.73 ERA in his two career outings against the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Also, his last three starts have totaled only 9 and 2/3 innings and he has given up 14 hits in those outings. This one should be a blowout home win for the Dodgers and this is a short price to lay needing LA to simply win by a margin of at least 2 runs. 8* LA DODGERS Run Line -1.5 |
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10-10-16 | Bucs +6 v. Panthers | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #475 - 8* Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+) @ Carolina Panthers @ 8:30 ET Monday - Both teams have some injury issues but the Panthers being without QB Cam Newton certainly is the biggest of them all. He has been ruled out for this Monday night match-up and, with both teams having struggled early this season, I see great line value here with the points. The line moved to a solid 6 Sunday evening and that means it is "go time" for me here on Monday morning. Note that Carolina is on a long-term 21-32 ATS run as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Also, Tampa Bay is 17-6 ATS in road games where the posted total is between 45.5 and 49 points. The biggest trend here is that the Buccaneers are a PERFECT 10-0 ATS when they are a dog of more than 4 points off of a game where they were held to less than 10 points. With Tampa Bay off of the ugly 27-7 loss to Denver last week and now coming in as a 6 point dog on Monday Night Football, look for the Buccaneers to come up huge in a chance to make amends in a divisional game in the spotlight of MNF. Tampa Bay is looking for revenge here as they have lost both match-ups with Carolina each of the past three seasons (0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS). Look for a big game from RB Jacquizz Rodgers who also was a solid receiving target for the Falcons from 2012 to 2014. He'll be filling in to injuries to the Bucs RB corps and he's fully capable of a big game here. The Panthers defense got lit up by Atlanta last week and I know TB is certainly no ATL when it comes to production on offense but QB Jameis Winston is certainly capable of putting up big numbers and he simply needs to avoid turnovers. By the way, the Panthers have forced just 1 turnover the past 2 weeks combined. The Bucs could pull off the upset here but certainly there is value with the sizable points. Look for that stat I mentioned above to move to a perfect 11-0 ATS. 8* TAMPA BAY Monday night |
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10-09-16 | Giants v. Packers -7 | 16-23 | Push | 0 | 20 h 46 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #474 - 8* Green Bay Packers (-) vs New York Giants @ 8:30 ET Sunday - Superb scheduling advantage here for the Packers as they are off of their bye week and now host a Giants teams traveling for a second straight week and also playing on short rest as the G-men were at Minnesota on Monday night. The Giants have failed to cover any of their last three games as they head to Lambeau Field to take on a Green Bay team that is 9-1 ATS when off of a bye. The Packers are also on a 6-0, 100% PERFECT ATS run when they are a home favorite against an NFC East foe. Green Bay certainly won't overlook the Giants as New York has defeated Green Bay in each of the last three meetings including one in the post-season here in Green Bay 5 years ago. The Giants have failed to cover 4 straight times when they are a road dog in the 2nd of back to back games away from home. After getting drilled at Minnesota Monday night look for a similar result Sunday night. Don't be surprised if turnovers play a role again tonight as the Giants have turned the ball over 8 times in their last 3 games while the Packers have not turned the ball over a single time in 2 of their 3 games this season. The Giants are very banged up in the secondary and the Packers and QB Aaron Rodgers will take advantage. The Packers are allowing only 42.7 rushing yards per game so the Giants will have to beat them through the air but Eli Manning has struggled in his last 2 games including throwing 3 interceptions. 8* GREEN BAY Sunday night |
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10-09-16 | Bengals -1.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #471 - 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bengals (-) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET Sunday - The Bengals have the rest edge here as they had a Thursday game last week. By the way, Cincy dominated the Dolphins in that game and the fact is that the Cowboys simply have not faced a team as strong as the Bengals yet this season. Cincinnati has been a playoff team for five straight seasons. The Cowboys have faced a floundering 49'ers team, the Giants and Redskins (both struggling in recent season as part of the NFC "Least" Division, and a Bears team that hasn't had a winning season since 2012. Dallas finally gets tested here and the Bengals defense will have its ears pinned back as they want to test Dak Prescott early and often in this one. The young QB has performed well so far this season but he hasn't faced much pressure and the Bengals are known for having a fierce defense that can "bring the heat". Cincy entered this season with a 7-0 ATS mark in their games against teams with a winning percentage of .600 or greater. Coach Marvin Lewis has a reputation for having his Bengals at their best for games like this and they would love nothing more than to knock off "America's team" at "Jerry's World" Sunday afternoon in Dallas. The Cowboys have been a great "story" early this season but the Bengals are the "proven" team in a big game setting like this one. Dallas is on a 5-13 ATS run in home games while the Bengals are on a 12-6 ATS run in road games and a 17-6 ATS run against NFC East opponents. 10* CINCINNATI in late afternoon Sunday action |
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10-09-16 | Falcons +4.5 v. Broncos | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 17 h 43 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #465 - 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons +4.5 @ Denver Broncos @ 4:05 ET Sunday - Paxton Lynch was pressed into duty at QB for the Broncos last week at Tampa Bay and he performed well. However, the Buccaneers are now 13-39 in their last 52 games and Lynch, likely to start here, is going to face a much tougher test against the Falcons. Atlanta is not a strong club defensively but they are a powerhouse on offense and Matt Ryan and Company should "get theirs" against the Broncos in this one. That will put pressure on the rookie Lynch to come up with a big game here and that is going to be tough in this spot. Ryan threw for over 500 yards last week and 300 of that went to WR Julio Jones who continues to be a beast for the Falcons. The Broncos rock solid defense now meets the offense currently ranked #1 in the league and considering the key injury for Denver at the QB position with Trevor Siemian likely to miss, I would not be surprised to see an outright upset here but certainly there is value in the points. Atlanta is 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season and all 3 wins were outright upsets! The Falcons are 13-6 ATS as an underdog the past three seasons combined. The Broncos are known for playing well at Mile High but they have covered only 3 of the last 9 times they are a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. 10* ATLANTA in late afternoon action Sunday |
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10-09-16 | Georgia -6.5 v. South Carolina | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
SEC Bulldog Insider - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Game #419 - 8* Georgia Bulldogs (-) @ South Carolina Gamecocks @ 2:30 ET Sunday - I have had a lot of success with the Bulldogs through the years and know the program quite well. Though Georgia is off of a heartbreaking last-second "hail mary" defeat versus Tennessee last week, they are ready to respond. Remember we saw similar circumstances earlier this season when Oklahoma State was off of a devastating defeat to Central Michigan on a "hail mary" play that shouldn't have even been able to happen - no time left and officials made a mistake. The Cowboys responded the next week by defeating Pittsburgh. Even though that win ended up coming by only a TD Okie State had multiple big leads throughout that game and definitely came ready to play. This is the type of effort I expect from Georgia today who has had extra time (with this game being rescheduled to Sunday) to be fully prepared mentally as they look to erase the bitter taste of last week's tough defeat. Georgia is now off of back to back losses and they are 18-2 SU (and 15-5 ATS) the last 20 times they entered a game off of two or more consecutive defeats. South Carolina is getting a few guys back this week that could help the offense but their overall production is just not there. They are still short of playmakers on offense and have produced some of the worst production on offense in the nation so far this year. Georgia is averaging more than 100 yards more per game on offense than are the Gamecocks. Also, South Carolina got drilled by the Bulldogs 52-20 last year and, after having just 1 carry last week, Georgia RB Nick Chubb is listed as probable for this game and I expect him to do plenty of damage here against a South Carolina defense that is allowing more than 200 rushing yards per game. As a fave of 3.5 to 10 points, the Bulldogs have gone 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS. Both teams are in "must win" mode but the road team is the much stronger and more balanced team. Also, Gamecocks head coach Will Muschamp went 1-3 against Georgia (his alma mater) when he was head coach of the Gators. Once against the Bulldogs get the best of Muschamp here. 8* GEORGIA early Sunday afternoon |
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10-09-16 | Texans +7 v. Vikings | 13-31 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #451 - 8* Houston Texans +7 @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET Sunday - The Vikings are not only undefeated this season, they are also 4-0 ATS. While a lot of credit certainly goes to the ultra-formidable defense of Minnesota, the fact is that the ball has certainly bounced the way of the Vikings early and often this season. The Vikes are +10 in turnover margin and that has had a lot to do with their success at the betting window early this season. I feel they are now starting to get a little too pricey as this line has moved up to a 7 and there is value with a Texans team whose offense (334.5 yards per game) is actually out-gaining the Vikings who are averaging only 290.5 yards per game this season. Also, very quietly, the Texans defense continues to do well and their strong performance last week came without J.J. Watt so that was a big plus for Houston. The Texans are allowing an average of only 287.8 yards per game this season while the Vikings are allowing an average of 306 yards per game. The Vikings D gets all the publicity but, as you can see, this Texans defense has been flying all over the field too! Houston has won the turnover battle in only one of their four games this season and that has been the big difference between these two teams. The result is solid line value for a 3-1 Texans team as everyone remembers their ugly loss to New England but the yardage was actually equal in that game and that type of result is adding even more line value to a spot like this. By the way, the Texans are on a 10-3 ATS run. Also, the Vikings are on a 3-10 ATS run when they are off of an ATS win by double digits and are now facing an opponent who is playing with revenge. The Texans did lose the last time they faced Minny and the Vikes are off of a huge cover in their win over the Giants which, by the way, came on Monday night so this is a short week for the Vikings to get ready for a tough Texans team. I am grabbing the generous points. 8* HOUSTON early Sunday afternoon |
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10-09-16 | Eagles -3.5 v. Lions | 23-24 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #461 - 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Detroit Lions @ 1 ET Sunday - The Eagles, with their win over the Steelers two weeks ago, proved the naysayers wrong. This Philadelphia team is for real and now, the best possible thing that could happen is that the Eagles got a much-needed bye before their heads got too big because of knocking off Pittsburgh. In all seriousness, that bye week did some good for the Eagles as otherwise they might have come out "flat as a pancake" after such a huge win like they had over a top notch team like Pittsburgh. Philly ranks as one of the top teams in the league on both sides of the ball so far this season while the Lions continue to under-perform and are off of a disappointing loss to the Bears last week. Detroit has lost three straight games both SU and ATS. The Eagles come into this game a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS and with the added benefit of coming off of a bye week. That said, I'll gladly lay the small number with the Eagles here as there is line value with Philly on the road. The Lions have only covered ONCE the last NINE times they have been a home dog. Also, the Eagles are 5-0 ATS when they have extra rest and are facing an opponent with a winning percentage of .600 or less. The Lions blew out the Eagles 45-14 last season and Detroit is 1-10 ATS as a dog of 10 points or less when they are facing an opponent who is playing with revenge. The Wentz show continues and also keep in mind that Jim Schwartz is the Eagles defensive coordinator and he is a former head coach of the Lions. The year after he was fired from the Lions he because defensive coordinator in Buffalo and helped lead the Bills to a 4-0 record against NFC North teams that season as he knew them well from his years in Detroit. He certainly knows the Lions well and that will pay off once again here. The Eagles have this game covered well on both sides of the ball with Wentz leading the way on O and Schwartz leading the way on D. Road rout! 8* PHILADELPHIA in early action Sunday |
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10-08-16 | Texas Tech +9.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 38-44 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #339 -10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) @ Kansas State Wildcats @ 7 ET Saturday - Red Raiders QB Patrick Mahomes is unlikely to play and that's why this line is where it is because, the fact is, the Red Raiders are the better team in this match-up. The key then becomes what happens when the back-up QB comes in for Texas Tech? Though it was "only" Kansas last week, junior QB transfer (from Iowa) Nic Shimonek came in and ran the offense very well and threw 4 TD passes. Shimonek is known as one of the hardest working players on the team and he has been learning Kliff Kingsbury's offense ever since he came over from the Hawkeyes. Shimonek has good size at 6'3 220 lbs and he made good throws and quick reads. He also is full of confidence and has worked very hard to be ready for when he's needed. With many of the quick, shorter passes that are a part of the Red Raiders offense, it is not as difficult to "step in" as a back-up QB and get the job done although Shimonek certainly has the arm and the accuracy for the longer routes as well. Shimonek already got some solid work in back in week one of this season and last week's experience versus the Jayhawks also helps him to prepared for taking on Kansas State here. The Wildcats are only averaging 346 5 yards per game this season and this is nothing new as they averaged only 333.7 yards per game to rank as one of the worst offenses in the nation. While I do respect their defense, Kansas State was ripped apart for 59 points by the Texas Tech offense last season and they also were heading into that game off of a loss as well. That said, the fact that the Wildcats are off of a tough tight loss at West Virginia doesn't truly strengthen their position here. In fact, when Kansas State is home off of a straight-up loss and facing an opponent off of a win by a double digit margin, the Wildcats have gone 0-4 ATS. Also, Texas Tech is on a 4-2 ATS run as a road dog and their offense (both based on yardage and points per game) is #1 in the nation in both key categories. The Wildcats just don't have the firepower to keep up here and their defense was exposed last season frequently by teams with high-powered offenses. The Cats allowed 36.9 points per game in their final 11 games last season. That is significant in looking at this match-up because Kansas State never scored more than 45 points in a game last season. This season the Wildcats put up big points on poor teams like Florida Atlantic and Missouri State but they averaged only 14.5 points in their other two games. The Wilcats were outgained by a margin of 422 to 286 last week at West Virginia and the numbers are likely to be even more skewed this week. That has me backing the big dog here that absolutely has a great shot at an outright upset win on the road. The Red Raiders are averaging 664 yards of offense per game this season and though their defense is always a liability, they have some confidence with last week's strong performance and, again, the Wildcats just don't have the offense to take advantage. In their two games that weren't against "cupcake opponents" Kansas State has only completed 29 of 71 passes this season! 10* Top Play TEXAS TECH Saturday |
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10-08-16 | Purdue +10.5 v. Illinois | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show | |
Ugly Dog - Rickenbach CFB Game #345 - 8* Purdue Boilermakers (+) @ Illinois Illini @ 3:30 ET Saturday - Taking advantage of line value here as Illinois opened up right around a 7 point favorite and then has moved up to being a double digit favorite. I just don't see it with the Illini. Sure Purdue is really no better but that is what you have here. Two bad Big Ten teams matched up so the only difference one could really see as value would be home field but that hasn't held true in this series. The road team has actually gotten the win in each of the last four meetings. Couple that with the fact that the Boilermakers have revenge from a bad home loss to Illinois last year and you have the makings of a truly dangerous "ugly dog" here. Purdue has plenty of motivation and is also coming off of an ugly loss at Maryland. Conversely, the Illini are coming off of a more respectable showing than many expected at Nebraska last week as they only lost by 15 points. However, Illinois was dominated statistically as they were outgained by over 150 yards in the game and the Cornhuskers had more than double the first downs that Illinois compiled. The Illini are on a long-term 15-24 ATS run as a home favorite while the Boilermakers are on an 11-6 ATS run as a road dog. Illinois is an ugly 2-13 ATS when they are off of back to back SU losses and facing a team that is coming off of a SU loss by double digits! That is precisely the case here with the Boilermakers off of that 50-7 loss to the Terrapins last week. Even with the loss last week Purdue is still on an 8-1 ATS run their last 9 games as a double digit dog. Grab the big points with the road dog Boilermakers here. 8* PURDUE Saturday afternoon |
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10-08-16 | Cincinnati v. Connecticut +3 | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #332 - 8* Connecticut Huskies (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 11:30 AM ET Saturday - Depending on when and where they were played, the Huskies have delivered as bad as an ugly 0-5 ATS mark this season for their backers. This is helping to give us solid line value here with Connecticut as a 3-point home dog. The Huskies want this game badly as, not since the days of Randy Edsall roaming the sidelines have the Huskies managed to knock off Cincinnati. Each of the last five years UConn has lost to the Bearcats and, after facing the new fast-paced attack of Syracuse and then the powerhouse attack of offensive juggernaut, Houston, the Huskies will be glad to face an offense that is struggling. Cincy can't settle down at the QB position as regular #1 Hayden Moore has been out with an injury and the Bearcats have now waffled between a young QB (Trail) and a veteran QB (Gunner Kiel) who was outplayed by Hayden Moore. The result has been very inconsistent offense from the Bearcats and, in fact, they are now on a 2-7 ATS run dating back to last season. Also, the home team in the match-ups between these two teams is 8-3 ATS even though Cincy has gotten the SU win in five straight match-ups. The Huskies have thrived as a home dog (22-9 ATS) and in their most recent conference home game they upset Houston - the Cougars only loss last season! The Huskies have a rest edge with two extra days off since they last played on Thursday. The Bearcats are on a 2-4 ATS run when they are off of a loss in conference action. As a home dog of 3 points or less the Huskies are on a 7-3 ATS run and this has the makings of an upset as Cincinnati's poor play at the QB position continues to plague them. 8* CONNECTICUT very early Saturday |
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10-07-16 | Clemson v. Boston College +17.5 | 56-10 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #312 - 8* Boston College Eagles (+) vs Clemson Tigers @ 7:30 ET Friday - Clemson is one of the top teams in the country and I have all the respect in the world for this team. That said, the fact is that the Tigers are in a very tough spot here and I like the line value we are seeing in this one. This line opened up around a 16 but is now as high as an 18 as of gameday morning and Clemson is known for having some struggles at times when they visit Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts. The Tigers are off of a key victory in their huge game with Louisville last week but it didn't come easy. Not only did Clemson get outgained by the Cardinals but, also the Tigers had to rally for the win after they gave up a 26-0 run to Louisville after halftime. That game was an emotional come from behind win for Clemson in a marquee game Saturday and now the Tigers are on the road on a short week. In the last 7 meetings between these teams the road team has gotten the cash only 2 times. Clemson has won 3 of their last 5 trips to Chestnut Hill but 2 of the 3 wins came by 6 points or less. Overall, the Tigers are on an ugly 3-7 ATS run as a road favorite. As for Boston College, they come into this game off of a much easier contest compared to the exhausting battle Clemson just had with Louisville. The Eagles just knocked off Buffalo by a 35-3 count with a ridiculous yardage edge of 400 to 67 over the Bulls. Boston College has a bye week on deck which is also a big edge as Clemson is truly in a sandwich spot after the big win over the Cardinals and with NC State on deck for next Saturday's homecoming game. Once again this season the Eagles have a rock solid defense and the offense is improving as 6'5" QB Patrick Towles (a graduate transfer from Kentucky) has gotten more comfortable with the Eagles. Clemson is on an 1-4 ATS run in games played on turf. BC is on a 3-0 ATS run as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. Look for the Eagles to give the Tigers a tough battle in this one as the situational edges are big for the home team here. 8* BOSTON COLLEGE Friday |
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10-06-16 | Cardinals -3 v. 49ers | 33-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #303 - 8* Arizona Cardinals (-) @ San Francisco 49'ers @ 8:25 PM ET Thursday - Both teams are off to tough starts at 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS. For the 49'ers this is not such a big surprise but for the Cardinals it certainly is. Arizona should respond in a big way this week even without Carson Palmer at QB as Drew Stanton is expected to get the start. What has killed the Cards the past two weeks is turnovers as they had 5 in each game. This is skewing their results in terms of marketplace perception and now we can take the far superior team here -3 after they were as high as a 4.5 point favorite earlier in the week. The fact is that Arizona, on a yardage basis, actually ranks in the top ten this season both on offense and defense while the 49'ers are near the bottom of the league in both categories. Since beating the Rams in week one, the Niners have been statistically dominated in every single game. They were outgained by 227 yards in week two, 164 yards in week three, and 133 in week four. Now San Francisco is facing a Cardinals team that has beaten them by at least 6 points in 3 of the last 4 meetings. Also, Arizona is on an 8-4 ATS run as an away favorite. First downs are 104-65 in favor of the Cards in the last 4 meetings between these teams. The Cardinals are on a 6-1 ATS run when they are off of an ATS loss by a double digit margin and are then favored against an NFC foe. The Niners are on a 1-5 ATS run in Thursday games. 8* ARIZONA |
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10-05-16 | Georgia Southern v. Arkansas State +7.5 | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 57 h 24 m | Show | |
ESPN2 Smash - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #302 - 8* Arkansas State Red Wolves (+) vs Georgia Southern Eagles @ 8 PM ET Wednesday - On the surface this looks like a complete mismatch as the Eagles are 3-1 on the season while the Red Wolves are 0-4 both SU and ATS. However, Arkansas State has played a much tougher schedule than the Eagles have. Also, this is the Red Wolves conference opener so they are fully aware of the fact that the season is certainly not lost! As for Georgia Southern, even though they are 2-0 in Sun Belt action already, those two victories came over two of the weaker teams in the conference as the Eagles beat South Alabama and Louisiana Monroe who were a combined 7-18 last year. Arkansas State is certainly off to an ugly start this season but they also got off to a poor start last year, 1-3, and then won 8 in a row to wrap up the regular season! The Red Wolves were projected to again be one of the top teams in the Sun Belt Conference and their comeback, in my opinion, starts Wednesday. The line opened up at a -7 for Georgia Southern here and has already moved to a 7.5 in most spots. With the ability to get Arkansas State as a home dog of more than a TD, it definitely is "go time" for me in this match-up. I am well aware of the fact that the Red Wolves just lost to an FCS school, Central Arkansas, in their most recent game but the Bears are actually playing quite well this season and are one of the better teams in their conference. Arkansas State did put up 469 yards against Central Arkansas but they did themselves in with turnovers. The Red Wolves will respond this week and they are 13-3 SU (and 11-5 ATS) in their conference games the past two seasons. The past two seasons Arkansas State has also gone 5-2 SU and ATS in their 7 games against teams with a winning record. The Red Wolves are off of a bye week and they are 8-1 ATS when playing with rest and facing a Sun Belt foe. 8* ARKANSAS STATE Wednesday |
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10-03-16 | Giants +4 v. Vikings | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Top MNF Crusher - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ Minnesota @ 8:30 ET Monday - With Sunday's action in the books the Vikings are one of only three undefeated teams in the league. In my opinion this still has the Vikes as being a little over-rated. Minnesota lost QB Teddy Bridgewater to injury late in the pre-season and now lost RB Adrian Peterson to a knee injury. Minnesota has been winning with defense and I am well aware of the fact that this team has a great defense and certainly I respect that. However, this is still a team whose offense has been impacted by these injuries and I am not sold on Sam Bradford at QB. Overall, the Vikings offense is averaging only 265.3 yards per game so far this season and that ranks them near the bottom of the league. Conversely, the Giants offense has rolled up 396.7 yards of offense per game so far this year and that ranks them near the top 5 teams in the league. Every single game the Giants have played this season has been close with an average margin of 2 points per game. The Vikings have one win by just a field goal but the other two wins came by more than a TD margin. However, Minnesota was actually outgained in both of those "big" wins! The Vikings defense has been getting the job done by generating turnovers and this is masking a sub-par offense. With the Giants off of a loss where they turned the ball over 3 times for a 2nd straight game, I am fully confident New York will be fired up and ready to play a "complete game" on MNF and avoid the turnover bug. The Vikings, while deserving credit for a solid defense that is pressuring QB's and forcing turnovers, have been fortunate early this season while the Giants certainly have not been so fortunate. That is what is helping to create the line value here. New York blew a 21-9 lead against Washington last week and I look for Eli Manning and Company to respond this week. The Giants are 7-1 ATS when off of a game against the Redskins. Also, they know QB Bradford very well from his days with the division rival Eagles. As for the Vikings, they are on an 0-7 ATS run on Monday Night Football and also 0-5 ATS when off of a straight-up win as an underdog and facing a team that has a winning record. Minnesota is also 0-4 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 10 points or less against a non-division opponent. Last, but certainly not least, the Vikings are 2-10 ATS when they are off of a game where they covered the spread by double digits and are now facing a team with revenge. The Giants lost badly at Minnesota late last season and it is time for a little payback. Those angles above add up to a 33-3 ATS mark in favor of the road dog in this one! I am grabbing the points here! 10* NEW YORK GIANTS Monday Night. |
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10-02-16 | Chiefs v. Steelers -3.5 | 14-43 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #276 - 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:30 ET Sunday - The Chiefs are off of a dominating 24-3 win over the Jets where New York QB Ryan Fitzpatrick basically handed them the game. All kidding aside, the Jets had 8 turnovers in that game. As for the Steelers, they are off of their embarrassing 34-3 loss at Philadelphia. If you look at last Sunday's scores only one team was a held to single digits in points (Pittsburgh) and only one team allowed a team only single digits in points (Kansas City). Ironically these teams meet in the next week and that has set exceptional line value for the Steelers here. Earlier in the week they were a 6 point favorite and now they are all the way down to a 3.5 as of Saturday night. I realize both these teams are 2-1 on the season but, in my mind, only one of them is a true Super Bowl contender and that is Pittsburgh. That said, the Steelers are looking to avenge a 10 point loss at Kansas City last year and they went 8-3 ATS the past two seasons in their games against teams with a winning record. As for the Chiefs, they are an ugly 2-4 ATS in their last 6 as a road dog between 3.5 and 7.5 points. Also, the Steelers are on an incredible long term run of 55-33 ATS in the month of October and they are hungry to respond off of last week's embarrassment. Pittsburgh is an incredible 10-0 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 28 points or more. The Chiefs are 1-6 ATS as dogs when they are off of a game where they allowed 7 points or less. Kansas City is also 0-4 ATS as dogs when facing teams from the AFC North. Look for this one to be all Steelers! 8* PITTSBURGH Sunday evening |
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10-02-16 | Rams v. Cardinals -7.5 | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 9 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL Game #274 - 8* Arizona Cardinals (-) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET Sunday - This line keeps dropping as it is inching closer to a -7 after opening up near a -10. Of course I understand the downward line move because of perception. Everyone saw the Cardinals lay an egg against New England in the season opener and then everyone is looking at their result from last week where Arizona lost 33 to 18 at Buffalo. However, the Cards turned the ball over 5 times in that game and that was the key difference as Arizona actually outgained the Bills 260 to 88 through the air in that game. The Cardinals are a solid team that is much better than the 1-2 record they've got right now. As for the Rams, they won 37 to 32 at Tampa Bay last week but the Buccaneers outgained LA by a 472 to 320 mark and Los Angeles is fortunate to have a 2-1 record on the season. The Cardinals blasted Tampa Bay in week two and they're capable of doing the same to the Rams here in Week 4 as they are again off of a loss and fired up. The Rams have one of the worst offenses in the league as the big points last week was because of turnovers. Los Angeles doesn't have the firepower to keep up here. The Rams are 0-5 ATS when they are on the road and facing a divisional foe who is off of a SU loss as fave. That is precisely the case here with the Cards off of that loss to the Bills. Keep in mind, Arizona got embarrassed last week and they are 6-0 ATS when they are favored against an NFC foe and they are coming off of an ATS loss by double digits to the spread. 8* ARIZONA in late afternoon action Sunday |
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10-02-16 | Broncos v. Bucs +3 | Top | 27-7 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
Rickenbach NFL Game #268 - 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+) vs Denver Broncos @ 4:05 ET Sunday - The Buccaneers are off of a tough home loss to the Rams last week as they outgained Los Angeles by over 150 yards in the game but came up on the wrong end of the scoreboard in the 37-32 final. The Broncos were at the other end of the spectrum as they as they barely outgained the Bengals at Cincinnati but yet won the game by a 29-17 final. Of course this wasn't the first time this season that the Broncos have been quite fortunate as they very nearly lost their season opener to Carolina and that game was at Denver. The Broncos have had to rally for their backers in each of their three games this season. While I certainly respect the Denver defense this is a team that honestly could just as easily be 0-3 ATS as they are 3-0 ATS as they were down in the 3rd or 4th quarter of each of their games. Statistically Denver's offense has been much worse than the points per game average you are seeing for them as a team and, also, the Bucs defense has been much better than their points per game average allowed as a team. Last week's "crazy game" against the Rams was a perfect example as they only gave up 320 yards in that game but 37 points! Denver has only covered 4 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. The Bucs have covered 6 of their last 7 games against a non-conference opponent off of a SU and ATS win. That system fits perfectly here and I look for the Bucs to spring the upset. 10* TAMPA BAY in the late afternoon games Sunday |
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10-02-16 | Seahawks -1.5 v. Jets | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
Rickenbach NFL Game #257 - 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks (-) @ New York Jets @ 1 ET Sunday - The Seahawks have gone from being a 3 point favorite in this game to all the way down to a pick'em. The value here is simply too good to pass up on. Seattle has a bye on deck so there is no lookahead for them and, keep in mind, this is still a team that is very hungry because, after winning the Super Bowl three years ago, they then lost the Super Bowl the next season and then last season they were knocked out of the playoffs by Carolina in the divisional round. The last thing the Hawks want to do is go into the bye week with a 2-2 record. The way I see it they already had their "oops" game for the first part of the season when their offense failed to show up at Los Angeles and the Rams beat them in a tight, low-scoring game. As for the defense, they are again performing like one of the elite units in the entire league. That spells bad news for a shaky Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Jets QB threw 6 picks last week and there is no doubt the Seahawks defense is licking their chops and they are going to "bring it" on Sunday! What is also significant about this line dropping to a pick'em is the fact that Seattle is 6-2 ATS (and a PERFECT 8-0 SU) when they enter a game off of a divisional win. The Seahawks will build off of last week's dominating win over the 49'ers. The Jets are on a 1-4 ATS run in games against NFC opponents and they don't fare well in games projected to be tight. New York is an ugly 4-9 ATS in games with a line between +3 and -3. I'll take Russell Wilson over Ryan Fitzpatrick any day of the week and I also know that I have the better defense in this one. 10* Seattle Seahawks in early afternoon action Sunday |
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10-01-16 | Arizona State v. USC -10 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show | |
Best Bet Shocker - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #196 - 8* USC Trojans (-) vs Arizona State @ 8:30 ET Saturday - You may be surprised to see me calling a fave a shocker but what I mean by this here is that USC is only 1-3 on the season and Arizona State is 4-0 but the "shock value" is here. The surprise is not just that the 1-3 Trojans are favored by double digits over the Sun Devils but the fact that they should easily cover it! USC has played a much tougher schedule by far as Arizona State's schedule has included Northern Arizona and UTSA! The Sun Devils barely got by the Roadrunners as the 4 point win was certainly not impressive. In Arizona State's other two games against FBS foes their defense was ripped for over 600 yards in each game and they allowed an average of 48 points per game! USC is off of a tough loss at Utah last Friday where they gave up a pair of late scores after appearing to be in command of that game. Now they get a chance to redeem themselves against a lesser foe after having faced tough teams like Alabama and Stanford already this season. The Trojans blasted the Sun Devils 42-14 at Arizona State last year but USC still has a measure of revenge here as well. That's because the last time Southern Cal hosted ASU they gave up 3 late TD's in the final 4 minutes (including a Hail Mary on the last play of the game) to lose by 4 points. USC hasn't forgotten about that happening on their home field. The Trojans are on a 7-0 ATS run in regular season action in games where they are off of a game where they allowed 31 points or more. After allowing 31 to Utah last week, Southern Cal bounces back (as usual) this week! 8* USC Saturday night |
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10-01-16 | Louisville v. Clemson +2 | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 25 h 50 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #164 - 8* Clemson Tigers (-) vs Louisville Cardinals @ 8 ET Saturday - Clemson was as high as a 3.5 point favorite when this line came out but they now have moved all the way to being a 2 point dog. This is huge movement and has created significant value that certainly shouldn't be shrugged off. The key here is that everyone saw the Cardinals annihilate Florida State on national TV and that has resulted in an inflated perception about Louisville. Certainly the Cardinals should receive their "just due" but the public is a little enamored with them right now. Keep in mind Louisville's other 3 games came against Charlotte, Syracuse, and Marshall. The Thundering Herd didn't even have their starting QB and also returned only 4 starters on defense this season. As for Syracuse and Charlotte, they both rank near the bottom of FBS schools. The point is that Louisville had a great game plan and executed extremely well against the Seminoles but one game should not define an entire team's season and, in this case, the Cards are now on the road and facing a very tough foe. Clemson has won both of the ACC meetings between these schools and also has a rest edge since the Tigers had a Thursday game last week. Clemson dominated the Yellow Jackets and also looked much stronger against Auburn in week one than what the final score (19-13) would lead you to believe. The Tigers only have Boston College on deck and Clemson has gone 6-1 ATS in their game the week before BC as certainly Clemson knows they can leave it all on the field when it's only the Eagles on deck! The Cardinals win over the Noles is keying the value here and keep in mind, FSU has now allowed 34 points or more in all 3 of their games against FBS schools this season. Is the fact that Louisville ripped Florida State as impressive as it originally seemed? I say absolutely not and I say the Cardinals are going to have trouble with a Clemson defense that is allowing only 11 points per game and the Tigers have the veteran leader at QB in this match-up too of course. Look for Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney to take it to Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino a third straight time. 8* CLEMSON Saturday night |
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10-01-16 | Kansas State v. West Virginia -2.5 | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -113 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #126 - 10* Top Play West Virginia Mountaineers (-) vs Kansas State Wildcats @ 3:30 ET Saturday - This line dropped from a 3.5 to a 2.5 Friday and that makes 3 a "win number" for West Virginia which is a great value here. I am well aware of the fact that Bill Snyder is one helluva coach and that Kansas State has defeated the Mountaineers each of the last four seasons. However, last year West Virginia outgained the Wildcats 447 to 304 and yet lost the game by a single point. The Mountaineers held Kansas State to just 10 of 31 through the air. In the last meeting here, in 2014, West Virginia held the Wildcats to a net of ONE rushing yard on 29 carries yet the Mountaineers still fell just short on the scoreboard. Overall, West Virginia has held the first down edge by 49 to 33 in the last two meetings and yet they lost both games on the scoreboard. The point is that coach Snyder hasn't exactly outsmarted Dana Holgorsen in these last two meetings. It's just been a pair of tough, tight losses for West Virginia despite having some key edges. With that said, this is a quadruple revenge spot for the Mountaineers and they are catching K-State at the ideal time. The Wildcats haven't played a tough opponent in a month and that was a double digit loss at Stanford. That was followed by a bye week for the Cats and then easy match-ups with Florida Atlantic and Missouri State! Look for the Wildcats to have trouble adjusting early on as they finally step back on the field with a formidable foe for the first time in 30 days! The Mountaineers are undefeated on the season and got a hard-fought win over BYU last week that will serve them well for facing a well-coached Kansas State team this week. There is only "so much" that coaching can do for a team and the Wildcats are on a 3-7 skid in Big 12 games their last 10 with an average margin of defeat of 15 points in those 7 losses! West Virginia is on a 5-2 ATS run at Mountaineer Field when they are a home favorite. 10* WEST VIRGINIA Saturday afternoon. |
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10-01-16 | Miami (Fla) -7 v. Georgia Tech | 35-21 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #157 - 8* Miami Hurricanes (-) @ Georgia Tech @ Noon ET Saturday - We are laying right around a 7 in this game but the set-up is truly ideal for a road rout. Even though the Hurricanes have played an easy schedule thusfar it certainly has helped them to build up confidence under new head coach Mark Richt. The former Georgia coach is, of course, very familiar with the Yellow Jackets and their option attack because the Bulldogs frequently faced Georgia Tech and head coach Paul Johnson. That, in and of itself, is a big edge for Richt but also note that the Hurricanes are off of a bye week AND they faced an option attack, Appalachian State, before the bye. The Canes are catching the Jackets at a good time as GT is still licking their wounds after the absolute beating they took against Clemson last Thursday. Georgia Tech was fortunate to beat Boston College earlier this season and only scored 17 points in that game and just 7 against Clemson last week. Overall the Yellow Jackets are on an ugly 2-11 ATS run and Richt is known for his ATS success in victories. When his team wins, he covers at a 67% rate - 90-45 ATS! Look for the Canes to get the win and look for another Richt cover in the victory! The Hurricanes add to their 6-1 ATS run in games against Georgia Tech. 8* MIAMI early Saturday |
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09-30-16 | Stanford v. Washington -3 | 6-44 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #110 - 8* Washington Huskies (-) vs Stanford Cardinal @ 9 ET Friday - The Cardinal are off of a ridiculous cover against UCLA Saturday as Stanford (-3) actually trailed 13-9 late in the game but they got a TD for a 3 point lead with just 24 seconds to go and then got a fumble return for a TD on the last play of the game to win by 9 points. The shocking cover for the Cardinal means that they are now 3-0 both SU and ATS this season and that is helping to create some line value this week. We can get Washington laying just a field goal at home in this one and the Huskies are 4-0 SU but only 2-2 ATS after Saturday's win in overtime over Arizona. Washington may have got caught peeking ahead to this game but they did have over 500 yards of offense in last week's win. Also, the Huskies have already forced at least 3 turnovers in each of their 4 games this season. As for Stanford, the Cardinal have only forced a total of 4 turnovers in their 3 games this year. Both teams have some solid defensive stats so far this year but the Huskies are averaging 103 more yards per game on offense so far this season. Also, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Washington has revenge for a 31-14 loss at Stanford last year. The Huskies are on a 17-9 ATS run as a home fave and have gone 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite in conference games. The scheduling situation here certainly favors the Huskies as the Cardinal are playing back to back road games and on a short week while Washington's short week is helped by the fact their playing at home for the 4th time in 5 weeks this season. The Huskies are 5-0 ATS the week before facing the Ducks and they have a trip to Oregon on deck for next week. Stanford is on a 2-4 ATS run in road games with posted total between 42.5 and 45 points and the Cardinal also are only 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games played on turf. Look for the Huskies speed, at home on FieldTurf at Husky Stadium to be the difference-maker in this one. 8* WASHINGTON Friday |
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09-30-16 | Edmonton v. Winnipeg -3 | Top | 40-26 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Rickenbach CFL Game #280 - 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers -3 vs Edmonton Eskimos @ 8:30 ET Friday - The Blue Bombers are off of a tight loss last week but that was against the #1 team in the league as Winnipeg fell just short of upsetting the Stampeders in Calgary. As for the Eskimos, they are also off of a tight game but they came out on the right side at home against the BC Lions last week. That sets this one up nicely as the Blue Bombers come in hungry off of a win while Edmonton can't help but have trouble coming down off the emotional high of knocking off a tough BC team last week. The Eskimos had lost 3 straight games before last weeks win. Conversely, the Blue Bombers had actually won 7 straight games before their furious comeback attempt against league-leading Calgary fell just short. Even though Edmonton has revenge from a home loss to Winnipeg in late July, note that the Blue Bombers had lost at home to the Eskimos earlier in July and they have a chance to now avenge that defeat at home. With the line dropping from a -5 to a -3 we are getting excellent line value with a Blue Bombers team that got another strong game from QB Matt Nichols last week. The Eskimos win and cover last week was their first ATS win in their last five games! In fact, that was Edmonton's first ATS win in EIGHT divisional games this season! The Eskimos continue to be over-valued this season as the defending Grey Cup champions. By the way, the Blue Bombers certainly haven't forgotten that they not only lost here at home to Edmonton earlier this season but also the fact that the Eskimos won the Grey Cup right here in Winnipeg last year. The Blue Bombers want this game badly and the line move has opened up exceptional line value with Winnipeg as the small home fave here. Keep in mind, even if this line moves back up a little, the Blue Bombers are 3-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points the past three seasons combined. 10* WINNIPEG |
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09-30-16 | Pirates v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 114 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
RL Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #910 - 10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Run Line -1.5 runs (+) vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 8:15 ET Friday - The Pirates are 11-19-1 in their last 31 games after yesterday's ultra rare tie. The big key here with the value on today's play is that 13 of Pittsburgh's last 15 losses have come by at least two runs. The Cardinals are battling hard for a playoff spot, they have an edge on the mound in this one, and the odds are they win the game. That said, I'll gladly grab the plus money on the run line as the money line price on the Cards is of course very steep here. The Cardinals win only came by a run yesterday but 10 of their 12 prior wins all came by two runs or more. The Cards will have Carlos Martinez on the mound and he has a stellar 2.65 ERA in his last 8 starts as he allowed 2 earned runs or less in 7 of those outings. He'll be opposed by a struggling Tyler Glasnow of the Pirates. The rookie right-hander has a 6.35 ERA at the big league level as a starter and one of his 3 starts this season was at St Louis in early July. The fact the Cardinals have already seen him certainly benefits their lineup and Glasnow also has pitched out of the pen some for Pittsburgh. Nearly every outing (whether out of the pen or as a starter) has seen him struggle if he goes longer than an inning. That said, he is still adjusting to pitching at the MLB level and I expect another tough start for him here. The Pirates are on an 0-5 run as a road dog of +175 to +200 and the Cardinals are on a 35-14 run as a home fave of -175 to -200. The odds are certainly favoring a Cards victory here and, as shown above, the odds also favor any STL win to come by a big margin over the struggling Pirates. 10* Top Play St Louis on the RUN LINE -1.5 runs Friday evening |
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09-29-16 | Dolphins v. Bengals -7.5 | 7-22 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
TNF Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #102 - 8* Cincinnati Bengals (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:25 ET Thursday - Nice set-up from a situational standpoint as the Dolphins are off their first win of the season (against the Browns) and it took overtime to get it. The extra effort (went to OT even though they were facing a bad Cleveland team) will certainly not do any favors for Miami in terms of now being on a short week and having to face an angry Bengals team. Cincinnati started last season 8-0 but they are now 1-2 to start this season as they blew a lead against the Broncos and lost to Denver by 12 last week. The game was certainly much closer than the final scored would indicate and the Broncos barely outgained the Bengals. In Cincy's first two games this season they won the yardage battle each time. The point is that Cincinnati still a much better team than their record is showing while the Dolphins still are a "question mark" at best with what they've shown so far this season. Note also that Miami is on a 1-8 (SU and ATS) run in games played on turf. Cincinnati is 9-1 SU (and 6-3-1 ATS) in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. Also, the Bengals have been strong when off of back to back SU losses. They were knocked out of the post-season in their first game in the playoffs in 2012 and then lost their season opener in 2013. Off those back to back SU losses, they responded with a win and cover in game 2 of the 2013 season. This began a stretch where Marvin Lewis and his Bengals are now a PERFECT 5-0 SU and ATS when they enter a game on a 2-game SU losing streak. Look for that streak to reach 6-0 this week! 8* CINCINNATI on Thursday |
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09-27-16 | Reds v. Cardinals -1.5 | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
Run Line Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #960 - 8* St Louis Cardinals Run Line -1.5 runs vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:15 ET Tuesday - After getting drilled 15-2 yesterday, the Cardinals have the right pitching match-up today to bounce back and get back on track before it's too late. The Cards are still alive in the wild card race but they must respond today after the Reds took it to them yesterday. Of course I am not going to lay -200+ on the money line but I'll gladly lay the -1.5 runs to get close to even money on St Louis. It is particularly a good value when you consider that Adam Wainwright has compiled a 2.92 ERA in his 14 home starts this season and, overall, the Cardinals are 4-1 in his last 5 starts and each of his last four outings have been games decided by 4 runs or more. The Reds have managed just 7 hits while striking out 15 times in the 11 innings spanning Wainwright's last two starts against them. Cincinnati will have Robert Stephenson on the mound and he has a 10.79 ERA in his last three starts and has averaged just4 innings per outing in those 3 starts. Of course this will expose a Reds bullpen that has been a major weakness all season. Cincy has won 3 straight games but this was preceded by a 1-8 stretch where the 7 of the 8 losses came by two runs or more. The Cardinals are only 11-13 this month but 8 of those 11 wins have come by at least two runs and this certainly looks like a huge mound mismatch where the odds of another big win for the Cards is likely. As a home fave of -200 to -225 the Cardinals are on an 11-4 run while the Reds are on a 9-21 run when they are a road dog of +175 to +200. Odds favor a Cards win here and every one of the losses the Reds have had with Stephenson on the mound came by at least 2 runs. Average margin of defeat in their three losses with him starting is 4.7 runs per game. Look for a BLOWOUT here. 8* St Louis Cardinals Run Line -1.5 runs Tuesday |
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09-26-16 | Falcons +2.5 v. Saints | Top | 45-32 | Win | 105 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
MNF Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #489 - 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 8:30 ET Monday - Huge revenge game for the Falcons as they lost both match-ups to the Saints last year. The first one, at New Orleans, ended Atlanta's 5-game winning streak to start the season. That also began an ugly 1-7 run for the Falcons that ruined their season. They haven't forgotten and, even though the Saints will be hungry here because of an 0-2 start to the season, the Falcons won't be denied. Both teams have solid offenses but New Orleans struggled at New York in the loss to the Giants last week. The Saints defense only allowed 16 points last week but 3 turnovers were the key as New Orleans actually allowed 417 yards. Also, prior to that game, the Saints had allowed an average of 28 points per game in their last 10 games. New Orleans is only 4-10 ATS in the role of home favorite and the revenge-minded Falcons are coming into this one flying high after another strong performance from QB Matt Ryan in last week's win at Oakland. Atlanta outgained the Saints in both meetings in each of the past two years but last year still lost both on the scoreboard. Falcons head coach Dan Quinn is fired up about getting his first win over this division rival (after going 0-2 last year) and you can bet the defensive-minded coach paid plenty of attention to how the Giants frustrated Drew Brees and the Saints offense last week. More of the same this week. 10* ATLANTA Monday Night |
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09-25-16 | Bears +6.5 v. Cowboys | 17-31 | Loss | -102 | 26 h 59 m | Show | |
Sunday Night Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #487 - 8* Chicago Bears (+) @ Dallas @ 8:30 ET Sunday - The Bears will have QB Brian Hoyer under center for this one and truly he will be an upgrade for Chicago as Jay Cutler struggled badly last week. Look for the 0-2 Bears to rally around Hoyer for this game and note that the defense has been solid for Chicago. This line move up from a 5.5 to a 7.5 before setting back in right around 7 as of Saturday evening. This is a great value spot to grab the dog as the Bears catch Dallas off of a fortunate win. The Cowboys struggled with the Redskins last week and Washington looked like they were going to punch it in and take a 10 point late lead before an errant pass in a "goal to go" situation ended up being a 14-point swing. It was some of the stupidest play-calling I have ever seen from a head coach as the Redskins consistently moved the ball against Dallas but then made some risky play-calls and finally got burned on one that decided the game. Credit is due to Dallas for hanging in there and grabbing the 4 point win but it truly was a gift from Washington and I am not impressed with the Dallas defense this season. The Cowboys gave up 432 yards to the Redskins and you can bet that Hoyer is going to be looking to the make the most of this opportunity in the national spotlight against a secondary that has a lot of question marks. Dallas is known for struggling at home and they have gone 5-16 ATS as a home favorite when facing a team from outside their division. Also, the Bears are led by a defensive-minded head coach and you can bet John Fox will have some special packages in mind for facing Cowboys rookie Dak Prescott in this one. Even though the Bears have a division rival on deck, Chicago actually has gone a phenomenal 14-2 ATS in their game prior to facing the Lions. The Cowboys are 1-9 ATS when Dallas is off of a straight-up win and facing a team that has a losing record and is playing with revenge. That is the case here as the Cowboys got the fortunate win over the Redskins last week while the Bears are 0-2 on the season and seeking to avenge a loss in Chicago in 2014 when Dallas most recently faced the Bears. 8* CHICAGO Sunday |
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09-25-16 | Steelers v. Eagles +4 | Top | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
Ultimate PA Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #482 - 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:25 ET Sunday - No one believes in the Eagles yet because they've only beaten the Browns and Bears. However, Cleveland actually jumped on Baltimore 20-0 last week before eventually losing. You didn't see Cleveland jump on top of Philly 20-0 did you? As for the match-up with the Bears, even though Chicago's offense certainly may have some issues they are a solid defense and well-coached by John Fox who is certainly a defensive-minded head coach. The Bears weren't able to stop the Eagles in what was supposed to be the Eagles first loss of the year. Now the talk is that Pittsburgh will take them down because finally the Eagles face a top team. Perhaps this is the week that Philadelphia loses but, if they do, it should not be by more than a field goal. Let's not forget, Philly has home field here, and also their defense is vastly improved and certainly the overall "locker room" and team "chemistry" is worlds better now in Philly. Give credit to new coach Doug Pederson and the entire Eagles management team. They are doing a good job already in Philly in terms of having put the right pieces together and that certainly includes rookie QB Carson Wentz who certainly is not your "average rookie" in terms of his intellect for the playbook and for making quick decisions in terms of reading coverages and reading defenses overall. He is a sharp kid with a strong arm and he'll give Pittsburgh some trouble Sunday as, fortunately for the Eagles, they are catching the Steelers at the perfect time. Pittsburgh just got a huge win last week over the division rival Bengals and that is always a physical game that is very taxing mentally and physically to the Steelers. The last 4 times that Pittsburgh is off of a game against Cincinnati they have not covered their next game a single time. The Eagles have their bye week on deck so they will certainly put every ounce of energy into this game and the atmosphere at The Linc is certainly going to be electric. As for the Steelers, they poured every ounce of energy into last week's key divisional win! Philly is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against AFC opponents. Even though these teams are in the same state they don't meet often since they are in opposite conferences but historians will like the fact that the Eagles have covered 4 of the last 5 including all 3 in Philly. The Eagles continue to be undervalued as, with their bye week on deck and with the Steelers off a very demanding divisional showdown, the situational edge here is with the home dog. 8* PHILADELPHIA Sunday |
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09-25-16 | Broncos v. Bengals -3 | 29-17 | Loss | -130 | 19 h 26 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #462 - 8* Cincinnati Bengals (-) vs Denver Broncos @ 1 ET Sunday - The Broncos have been fortunate so far this season. Certainly Denver has a solid defense and I would never argue that. However, new QB Siemian now makes the first road start of his NFL career. Keep in mind, he made a lot of mistakes against the Panthers in Week 1 and the Broncos were fortunate to win that game. Then, last week against Indianapolis, Siemian was certainly aided by the fact that the Broncos DEFENSE scored a pair of touchdowns. Cincinnati is fired up after their loss to Pittsburgh last week as the Bengals outgained the Steelers but lost the game by 8 points. Cincy has won each of their last 4 home openers handily and did not lose a single one ATS either. The Bengals threw for 366 yards last week against Pittsburgh and that aerial attack will be the key to keeping the Broncos D off balance. The Broncos are on a 7-16 ATS run when they are a road dog outside of their own division. The Bengals are on a 13-6 ATS run when they are a home favorite. Also, Cincy is on a 9-0 ATS run against AFC West opponents and, believe it or not, Cincinnati is actually on a 6-1 ATS run in their game that immediately follows facing Pittsburgh. A tightener to that is that the last 4 times in a regular season game after losing to the Steelers in the prior game, the Bengals are a PERFECT 4-0 ATS in their next game! Cincy is fired up again after the loss to the Steelers and I look for Siemian to struggle in his first road start. 8* CINCINNATI Sunday |
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09-25-16 | Lions v. Packers -6.5 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show | |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #474 - 8* Green Bay Packers (-) vs Detroit Lions @ 1 ET Sunday - The Packers are off of a disappointing loss on Sunday Night Football. They will be hungry for another huge divisional game this Sunday in what is also their home opener. Green Bay has only lost the money ONCE in their last NINE home openers. The fact this line has moved from an 8.5 opener all the way down to as low as a 6.5 as of Saturday evening means that we are getting excellent line value here. Green Bay has underperformed on offense so far this season but they did face a tough Vikings defense last week. Now this week the Packers are finally at home and they also face one of the worst defenses in the league. The Lions only allowed 16 points last week but the Titans were a combined 5-27 the last two seasons and yet still went into Detroit and upset them last week. The Lions allowed 13 fourth quarter points to Tennessee. This was after the Lions gave up 35 points on 450 yards at Indianapolis in Week One. Now Detroit must contend with a fired up Packers team that is on a 21-11 ATS run in a game after a straight-up loss. That defeat to the Vikings will bring out the best in Green Bay Sunday for their home opener and I am well aware of the fact that the Lions are seeking revenge for the Hail Mary loss at Ford Field last year but, keep in mind, the Packers also have revenge on their minds here. That's because Detroit beat the Pack at Lambeau last season the for the first time in 24 years! It's payback time! 8* GREEN BAY Sunday |
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09-24-16 | Arkansas +6.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 24-45 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Year - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #363 - 10* Top Play Arkansas Razorbacks (+) vs Texas A & M Aggies in Arlington, Texas @ 9 PM ET Saturday - A match-up of unbeatens and the Aggies are also 3-0 ATS. However, their week one win was over UCLA in overtime. A & M gave up 468 yards in that game. Their 2nd game was against Prairie View so certainly that was a chance for the Aggies to pad their stats. Then, last week, A & M did knock off Auburn but the Tigers had 26 first downs (compared to 19 for the Aggies) and Auburn did amass 236 yards on the ground. Keep in mind that the Aggies are known for struggling against the run and the Razorbacks have outgained them on the ground by a margin of 517 to 202 in the last two meetings between these teams. Texas A & M did prevail in those games but both were decided in overtime. There is exceptional line value here with the Razorbacks as a 6.5 point dog (as of Friday evening) as they are on a 9-1 ATS run when they are off of a game where they scored more than 35 points. Arkansas blasted Texas State 42 to 3 last week. Arky is also on an 11-4-1 ATS run in SEC games including 9-2-1 when they are an underdog in SEC action. The Aggies are on a 4-8-1 ATS run as a fave in SEC action and A & M is 7-17-1 ATS overall against SEC foes. The Aggies are over-rated right now, early in this season, as they have played the weaker schedule compared to Arkansas. Also, this is a neutral site game and Arkansas is arguably the better team. The Razorbacks defense did return 9 starters from last year's team and they are improved and it looks like head coach Bret Bielema will finally get his revenge against Kevin Sumlin and his Aggies. The Razorbacks are on a 7-1 ATS run in games where they are an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. Arky is on an 11-4 ATS run against teams with a winning record. Conversely, A & M is on a 3-10 ATS run against teams with a winning record. Look for these trends to continue here. 10* ARKANSAS Saturday |
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09-24-16 | Florida v. Tennessee -4.5 | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #384 - 8* Tennessee Volunteers (-) vs Florida Gators @ 3:30 ET Saturday - The Gators have won 11 straight times over the Vols. The opening line on this game saw the odds makers hang an 8 on the Volunteers! Free money, right? The odds makers have lost their minds, right? Hardly! How many times have you seen that happen? That is simply not the case and yet the whole world has jumped on Florida here as this line is down to a 4.5 as of Friday evening. The fact is that there is plenty of good reasoning for the Vols putting an end to the losing streak with the Gators in Saturday's match-up and that is why I have no reservation about laying the very reasonable number now available on the home team in this one. First off, the Gators lost their starting QB last week and his replacement (Austin Appleby) though experienced, has a 2-9 record as a starter in his college career. The Vols have a the huge edge at QB as Joshua Dobbs is a senior who is the perfect guy to play behind a shaky offensive line (admittedly a weakness of the Volunteers). Even though the Gators may get some penetration they have to be very careful because Dobbs is elusive and then he burns teams with his legs or with busted coverage downfield by extending the play. Many forget that last season the Vols were up 27-14 late in the fourth quarter before some "gator magic" helped lead Florida to the win but that game was in the Swamp. It will be a much different story on the road this time around and the key to last season's match-up was that Vols head coach Butch Jones certainly had a good game plan! The 254 rushing yards that Tennessee had was the most that head coach Jim McElwain's Gators allowed all season long. I am well aware of the fact that Florida is off to an amazing start on defense this year but playing a weak schedule so far has certainly helped in that regard. Now the Gators take a big step up in terms of taking on a quality opponent and, unlike last season, the Vols won't blow a fourth quarter two touchdown lead this time around. Look for Gators QB Appleby to drop to 2-10 as a starter in his career. 8* TENNESSEE Saturday |
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09-24-16 | Florida State -5 v. South Florida | 55-35 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #387 - 8* Florida State Seminoles (-) @ South Florida Bulls @ Noon ET Saturday - The Noles were completely embarrassed in their 63-20 loss at Louisville last week. The Seminoles gave up 520 yards to the Cardinals in that game. They now face a Bulls team that is a 3-0 both SU and ATS so far this season. However, South Florida also gave up huge yardage last week and that was at Syracuse! The fact is that the Bulls have had a very easy schedule so far this season with games against Towson (FCS school), Northern Illinois (off a multi-OT road loss), and then the Orange last week. By the way, Syracuse lit up the Bulls "vaunted" defense for 549 yards! The point I am making is that the fact that South Florida has allowed 20 points or less in each of their three games this season is certainly something that should have an asterisk by it as they haven't played anywhere close to the schedule that FSU has. Though the Noles week one win over Ole Miss seems like a distant memory, it shouldn't be that way. This is a good Seminoles team that is fired up and that has not lost back to back games in 5 years! That's right, the Noles have not lost consecutive games since 2011. Their current streak (66 games) is only bettered by one team, Oregon (70) in the entire country. That said, I have no qualms about laying the 5 points here as the Seminoles have beaten the Bulls by a combined score of 64 to 31 in their last two meetings and they are fully focused for this opportunity to get back on track after last week's debacle. 8* FLORIDA STATE Saturday |
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09-23-16 | TCU -21 v. SMU | 33-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #305 - 8* TCU Horned Frogs (-) @ SMU Mustangs @ 8 ET Friday - Tough break for SMU with losing their starting QB, a senior, to a season ending knee injury. With Davis out, a freshman has taken over the reins at the QB position and it has certainly been a struggle for Ben Hicks. The young QB was playing high school ball in Waco last fall and, not surprisingly, he has struggled with a low completion rate plus he has thrown way too many picks here at the collegiate level. The Mustangs offense does move the ball well under head coach Chad Morris but the turnovers and mistakes have hurt SMU badly and they now face a TCU team that already saw the Morris offense last year. That spells trouble for the Mustangs and I expect the struggles for freshman QB Hicks to continue. As for the Horned Frogs, their offense can again "roll it up" on an SMU defense that continues to be the weakness of the team. Last year SMU allowed 45.7 points per game to rank near the very bottom of FBS schools. This season, they have been helped so far by facing a weak schedule to start the season with North Texas and Liberty included already this month but, in their one tough test Baylor put up 34 points in the 2nd half against the Mustangs after a rare, sluggish first half for the Bears. TCU is well aware of those first half struggles that Baylor had and the Horned Frogs already had an upset loss this season (against Arkansas). That said, there is no question they are going to bring full effort here for the full sixty minutes in this one! Keep in mind that, even though this is a non-conference match-up, both of these teams are from the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex and that insures that the Horned Frogs, even with a big lead, are not going to take their foot off of the gas in this one. TCU has scored at least 48 points in each of their last three games against SMU and the Mustangs only scored 13 against Baylor earlier this season. I rarely lay big points like this but everything points to a win here by about 5 TDs rather than the 3 TD margin that is the current spread on this one. By the way, TCU is on a perfect 5-0 ATS run in games after facing Iowa State. Also, SMU is just 2-8 ATS their last 10 as a home dog. Also, the road team has covered 6 of the last 9 in this series and the Horned Frogs won't let up here considering this is the Battle for the Iron Skillet. The last time the Mustangs hosted this rivalry game SMU was demolished 56 to 0. Another ugly home loss looms here. 8* TCU Friday |
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09-23-16 | Toronto v. Ottawa -5.5 | Top | 12-29 | Win | 101 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
Rickenbach CFL Game #492 - 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks (-) vs Toronto Argonauts @ 7 ET Friday - Revenge game for Ottawa as they look to avenge a 23-20 home loss to the Argos in the nation's capital back in late July. Since that victory, Toronto has lost 5 of their last 6 games and 4 of the 5 losses came by at least a 13 point margin. That is why I have no fear of laying the points here (currently -5.5) with the Redblacks. With Argonauts QB Ricky Ray out for the season, Toronto is a different team. They have still been moving the ball on offense but they continue to make mistakes and have been done in by turnovers. Ottawa will take advantage of this and the Redblacks are 3-1 ATS the last 4 times they have been a home fave in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. Also, this season, when playing with 6 days or less of rest, Ottawa has gone 3-1 ATS. The Redblacks played the top team in the league, Calgary Stampeders, and lost badly on Saturday. That has them fired up for this divisional match-up Friday and they host an Argonauts team that is on an 8-15 ATS run in divisional games and also playing with short rest here as Toronto got blasted by Winnipeg Saturday. The Redblacks have been very strong against the run this season and that will force the Argos to the air and back-up QB Dan LeFevour who has had issues with throwing costly picks since filling in for Ray. More of the same expected here. 10* OTTAWA Friday |
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09-22-16 | Clemson -9.5 v. Georgia Tech | 26-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #303 - 8* Clemson Tigers (-) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 7:30 ET Thursday - The last time Clemson visited Georgia Tech they lost 28 to 6 two years ago. That said, even though the Tigers have a big game on deck with Louisville coming up next week, there is no way that Clemson will overlook the Yellow Jackets here. That is bad news for Georgia Tech because, though their 3-0 record looks great, they truly haven't faced anything close to the quality of an opponent like the Tigers this season. Georgia Tech has faced Boston College (1-2 and just lost to Virginia Tech 49-0) and Mercer (an FCS school) and Vanderbilt (1-2 and only win came against Middle Tennessee State). Now the Yellow Jackets take on one of the best teams in the nation and Clemson drilled them 43-24 last year as Georgia Tech was held to their lowest yardage output of the season. The Tigers run defense is allowing only 2.6 yards per carry this season and that will be a key in shutting down the Yellow Jackets triple-option offense which is so heavily focused on the ground game. Clemson held Auburn to a total of only 262 yards in their week one non-covering win. Auburn got a late TD for the backdoor cover but Clemson has now forced 8 turnovers in their first three games and their defense will be a key. Just like last year, the Tigers again give the Yellow Jackets offense a lot of problems and drop Georgia Tech to 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 lined games. The Tigers are on a 17-9-1 ATS run in ACC action and this is their conference opener. Their first ACC game, Georgia Tech's 3-0 start, and past struggles in road games against the Yellow Jackets means a fully focused effort from the road team here. Look for a road rout to be the result. 8* CLEMSON Thursday |
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09-19-16 | Eagles +3 v. Bears | 29-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #289 - 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Chicago Bears @ 8:30 ET Monday - The Bears are 9-22-1 ATS in home game the past 4 seasons combined. This is their home opener and it is Monday night and yes, it is the Eagles Carson Wentz first road contest as an NFL rookie. However, he is not your "typical" rookie QB in that he ran a pro style offense in college at North Dakota State. Also, his intellect is off the charts and this has helped him learn the playbook of the Eagles very quickly as well as helping to make good, split-second decisions on the field. Even though the Eagles win in Week 1 came against the Browns and much was made to downgrade the Philadelphia victory, that was the same Cleveland team that jumped out to a 20-0 lead over Baltimore yesterday before eventually falling just short of an upset win over the Ravens. As for the Bears, not only has Soldier Field not been special for them at the betting window in recent seasons, this offense has struggled as they ranked 23rd out of 32 teams for scoring last season. In week 1, the Bears only managed 258 yards and 14 first downs. The Eagles defense was very impressive in last week's win as they held the Browns to 10 points, 288 yards, and 14 first downs. Wentz threw for nearly 300 yards plus had 2 passing TDs in the win over Cleveland. The Bears are currently on an 0-6 ATS skid in home games when they are off of a non-conference game. After Chicago was held scoreless by the Texans in the 2nd half of last week's game, look for the Eagles to be mindful of the adjustments that Houston made at halftime that led to the shutout of Chicago in the second half last week. Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS on Mondays when they enter Monday Night Football off of a straight-up win. After knocking off the Browns last week, look for the Eagles to build off of that momentum. Supported by that 8-1 ATS stat and the 6-0 ATS stat against the Bears we've got combined 14-1 ATS edges working in our favor in this one and I expect the Bears home ATS futility to continue. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-18-16 | Packers -1.5 v. Vikings | 14-17 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 58 m | Show | |
Blowout Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #287 - 8* Green Bay Packers (-) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 8:30 PM ET Sunday - The Vikings are expected to start Sam Bradford who was acquired from the Eagles right before the season. Minnesota snuck by the Titans at Tennessee last week but the QB situation is a concern with all the issues due to Teddy Bridgewater's injury happening so late in training camp. The Vikes beat the Titans by 9 points last week but Minnesota was outgained in that game as the win was certainly helped by a +3 turnover margin. Keep in mind though that this was a Tennessee team that is a combined 5-27 the past two seasons. Now Vikings, still trying to adjust at QB, face a fierce division rival with revenge on their minds. The Packers lost the season finale to Minnesota last year and that resulted in Minny winning the division and Green Bay entered the playoffs on the road as a wild card. It is now time for a little payback and we're getting line value here because the line has gone from as a high as a -3 on Green Bay to very nearly a pick'em. Of course the Vikes are a popular choice this week since they're opening up their new stadium and have done so well at home ATS in recent seasons. What many are not realizing is that the Vikings just are not the same team without Bridgewater and bringing in Bradford now could be a disaster. He has had very little time to adjust to the Vikings playbook and now faces a fierce division rival in primetime action. The Vikings defense led the way in last week's win but QB Aaron Rodgers and company...present a much tougher challenge than the Titans did last week. The Packers, prior to the loss to the Vikes at the end of the regular season last year, had won 5 games and tied once with the Vikings in their last 6 meetings. Minnesota hadn't beaten Green Bay since the 2012 season. Look for the Packers to give Bradford and a weak Vikings offense all sorts of trouble here. 8* GREEN BAY Sunday night |
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09-18-16 | Colts +7 v. Broncos | Top | 20-34 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
Shocker of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #281 - 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (+) @ Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET Sunday - The Broncos survived their season opener but it truly was a "choppy" debut for new QB Siemian as turnovers certainly were an issue. Overall the Broncos were outgained and narrowly held on for the 1 point victory. I look for Denver to be exposed here as the Colts offense is so dangerous with QB Luck at the controls and Indianapolis put up 450 yards of offense in last week's loss to the Lions. Of course the issue for the Colts, as it was last week against the Lions, is their defense. However, this Broncos offense is going to have some "growing pains" with Siemian at the helm. Denver is on an 0-9 ATS run in games against the Colts and with this spread working all the way up from an opener of 4.5 to a 7 as of Saturday, it is "go time" for me. Indianapolis, the last 10 times they are off of a loss and then are a dog of at least a point or more (basically out of the pick'em price range) they have gone 10-0 ATS! Fired up after a missed opportunity win at home against Detroit last week, the Colts will bring their "A game" this week. The Broncos, by virtue of sneaking out that 1 point win over Carolina, continue to be over-rated and that is evident by the line move here as the Denver backers are out in full force. The Colts are very hungry off of their disappointing 8-8 campaign and the super bowl champ Broncos certainly have a target on their backs this season. Denver is on a 2-5 ATS run as a home fave of 3.5 to 7 points and the Colts are on a 6-2 ATS run as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points . 10* INDIANAPOLIS in the later games Sunday afternoon |
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09-18-16 | Cowboys v. Redskins -3 | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 24 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #272 - 8* Washington Redskins (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 PM ET Sunday - The Redskins won't be popular with the betting markets this week as everyone watched them get obliterated by the Steelers on Monday Night and Washington is now on a short week. The key here though is that this is a huge rivalry game and it is a key road test for the Cowboys rookie QB. Though Prescott didn't make key mistakes last week sometimes playing too cautious can cost a team too. Note that star WR Bryant only caught one pass and "managing a game" but still losing is a fruitless endeavor. Now Prescott faces a much tougher test on the road and the Redskins are fired up after losing by 22 points last week versus Pittsburgh. Lets not forget that the Skins are the defending NFC East champs and Dallas continues to have a putrid record without Tony Romo at QB. Washington is on a 4-1 ATS run in divisional battles while Dallas is on an overall 3-11 ATS run. The Redskins have lost their home game with the Cowboys each of the last three seasons and that means it is time for a little payback today as they have the defense capable of giving a rookie QB a lot of trouble. Look for their defensive line to get a lot of pressure on Prescott and also look for a myriad of blitzes and stunts from the Skins defense in this one. 8* WASHINGTON early Sunday afternoon |
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09-17-16 | Ohio State v. Oklahoma +1 | 45-24 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 45 m | Show | |
Marquee Showdown - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #192 - 8* Oklahoma Sooners (+) vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ 7:30 ET Saturday - Ohio State is ranked #3 in the country and the Buckeyes have won their first two games this season by a combined score of 125 to 13. Oklahoma is ranked #14 in the nation but what the betting markets remember about them is their ugly season-opening loss against Houston. The Sooners are 0-2 ATS on the season and the Buckeyes are already 2-0 ATS this season. All of the above considered don't you find it curious that this line is only in the "pick'em" range on Ohio State? Exactly! Once again another contrarian play for me as I am going to grab the team that everyone remembers from their poor performance against Houston and I am going to fade the much higher ranked team that has been absolutely dominate so far this season. How can we do this with confidence? For one thing, the Sooners know they can't afford another loss. They have an "us against the world" mentality for this game and OU is hungry to prove they belong with the elite in college football after their disappointing week 1 performance. Keep in mind that the Buckeyes haven't truly been tested yet as they were favored by 4 TD's in each of their first two games. Keep in mind this is an OSU team that returned only 6 starters from last year's team while Oklahoma returned 13 starters from a team that was in the playoffs last year and OU, unlike OSU, certainly has already been tested this season by virtue of that big battle with Houston in Week 1. The Sooners erased some of the opening week disappointment with a 59-17 win over Louisiana Monroe last week but OU knows they need this game Saturday to get back into the national spotlight that they are use to being in. Though the Buckeyes win last week looks great at first glance, Ohio State certainly benefited from 6 Tulsa turnovers in that game. The Buckeyes offense didn't move the ball all that well for long periods of time especially early in the game. That same questionable offense will face a much stiffer test this week in Norman, OK! 8* OKLAHOMA Saturday evening |
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09-17-16 | Michigan State v. Notre Dame -7 | Top | 36-28 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
Blowout Game of the Month - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #186 - 10* Top Play Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 7:30 ET Saturday - Michigan State is ranked HIGHER than Notre Dame and yet the Spartans opened up as MORE than a TD underdog in this game! What does that tell you? Exactly! If you're a contrarian player like I am you are all over the Fighting Irish in this game. There is a reason the line may "look funny" and that's because Michigan State has had many successful seasons in recent years. However, as I stated before the season, the Spartans will be one of the teams I'll be looking to fade this year. Michigan State lost QB Connor Cook and also a ton of other returning starters on both sides of the ball. Even though the D should still be solid for the Spartans (despite losing a lot of starters) their offense is truly being "rebuilt" and they won't have the firepower to keep up with Notre Dame here. The Fighting Irish have already been tested as they had that tough battle with Texas to open up the season. As for the Spartans, they opened up against an FCS team, Furman, and then had a bye week last week. This has done very little to prepare Michigan State for the "onslaught" that this high-powered Notre Dame offense is going to throw at them Saturday. The Irish offense has averaged 33.5 points per game under Brian Kelly the last two seasons and they are already putting up big points this season (and not against FCS schools). The Spartans only beat Furman by 15 points in week one and the Irish didn't allow a TD to Nevada last week until late 4th quarter. It was a much better performance for the defense compared to week one against Texas but, again, the key here is that the Irish are at home and can put up points in a hurry and the Spartans offense just doesn't have the ability to "keep up" in a game like this. Don't be fooled by the line here. The Spartans will be exposed early this season and this is the first such opportunity so it is the right time to jump in. Michigan State is 2-6 ATS in September games the past 2+ seasons. The Irish are on an 11-2 SU run and 9-4 ATS run in home games! 10* NOTRE DAME Saturday evening |
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09-17-16 | Oregon v. Nebraska -3 | Top | 32-35 | Push | 0 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
TOP Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #168 - 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (-) vs Oregon Ducks @ 3:30 ET Saturday - Here you have an unranked Cornhuskers team taking on a ranked Ducks team and yet Nebraska is a 3 point favorite over Oregon. Of course this has many bettors flocking to Oregon but truly the odds makers knew what they were doing here. Nebraska is a team on the rise and the Ducks truly aren't the same team they were in recent seasons and yet Oregon remains very popular with bettors. Of course this helps drive value for us in spots like this as I expect Nebraska win this game by double digits. The Huskers have an edge here with head coach Mike Riley formerly coaching at Oregon State. As head man of the Beavers you have to know the Ducks program inside and out and that is an edge here. Cornhuskers QB Armstrong had a huge game last week through the air and Nebraska also delivered a huge game on the ground in the prior week. Certainly I respect the Oregon offense but their defense is very vulnerable and even got gashed by the ground game of Virginia and the Cavaliers certainly aren't known for that. The Huskers have the right personnel and systems to pound on the ground again like Nebraska teams of old but Armstrong also gives them the huge aerial threat that keeps defenses off balance. Note that Oregon had their worst season in a long time with a 9-4 showing last year and their defense allowed 485 yards per game and they now have a new defensive coordinator in Brady Hoke. This is a team that is regressing even though head coach Mark Helfrich is in his fourth year here. They just don't have the same talent level they had in the Chip Kelly years and they lost a ton of starters from last year's team. Conversely, Nebraska returned most of their starters from last year and, after a down year last year, they are poised to bounce back and have already covered each of their first two games while the Ducks are already 0-2 ATS. 10* NEBRASKA Saturday afternoon. |
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09-17-16 | Pittsburgh v. Oklahoma State -4.5 | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 21 h 22 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #174 - 8* Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Pittsburgh Panthers @ 3:30 ET - After the gut-wrenching loss to Central Michigan last week, Oklahoma State is fired up for this one. The Cowboys also benefit from catching Pittsburgh off of an emotional win over in-state rival Penn State as the Panthers renewed their rivalry with the Nittany Lions last week. Pitt has their ACC opener on deck and, even though OSU has their Big 12 opener on the deck, the travel situation strongly favors the Cowboys here. Oklahoma State is playing their third straight home game while the Panthers are making an unusual road trip to Big Twelve country. It is the first time Pittsburgh has played on the road against a Big 12 team since they traveled to Nebraska in 2005. The Cowboys returned the majority of their starters from last season's team so they have a veteran group that is ready to respond appropriately at home in Stillwater, OK after last week's unreal finish that handed them a tough loss. Look for the Cowboys to improve to 10-5 as a home fave in a range of 3.5 to 10 points while dropping the Panthers to 3-9 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games. 8* OKLAHOMA STATE Saturday |
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09-16-16 | Baylor v. Rice +31.5 | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #106 - 8* Rice Owls (+) vs Baylor Bears @ 8 ET Friday - Rice certainly fits the definition of "ugly dog" in this match-up but, simply put, the points being offered here are quite generous when you consider all the factors in this match-up. Keep in mind that, like the Owls, the Bears are also 0-2 ATS this season. They continue to be overvalued and truly, are not playing as well under interim coach Jim Grobe in comparison with the pre-scandal days. The Baylor program has certainly been impacted and this is their first road game of the season while also being Rice's first home game and the Owls made some significant upgrades to their facility that were completed this summer and Rice has been looking forward to this game with great anticipation. Bears interim head coach Grobe, after back to back ATS losses to start this season, is on a 1-13 ATS run as a non-conference favorite of 7 points or more. Though he and the Bears may win this big, I don't see them covering the current number of 31.5 points. Last week Baylor was tied at the half with SMU as penalties also have hurt the Bears early this season. This Bears team has quite a bit of inexperience and immaturity that has impacted them and I foresee another non-covering win here for Baylor. Grobe has no reason to run up the score on head coach David Bailiff and the Owls but don't be surprised if this one is much closer than many would expect. Rice had an awful season on defense last year but they returned most of those starters. Facing Western Kentucky's fantastic passing attack and Army's dominating ground game (both games on the road) back to back is a tough way to start the season. Now, at home, and playing with revenge from a 70-17 beating at Baylor last year, the Owls will be hungry for a huge performance at Rice Stadium in Houston. If Art Briles (gone after the scandal) was still the coach at Baylor this one might play out differently. But under coach Grobe (and with the team having been impacted by the off-season issues) this game is unlikely to be decided by more than three TDs. Grobe teams just don't have a knack for running up huge scores and, keep in mind, their big win in week one was against a clearly over-matched FCS team, Northwestern State. Rice is on par with the SMU team that Baylor struggled with through the first half last week and, keep in mind, that game was in Waco. The Owls keep this one respectable in their home opener. 8* RICE OWLS Friday |
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09-16-16 | Montreal +10 v. Hamilton | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Rickenbach CFL Game #291 - 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes (+) @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 7 ET Friday - Both teams are off of losses but there is a significant scheduling edge for Montreal here. The Alouettes played last Friday so they've a full week off whereas Hamilton just played on Sunday so they are playing on short rest this week. Adding to the advantage for the Als is that they have a bye week on deck so they will certainly "leave it all on the field" in this week's match-up! Another reason Montreal is certain to give it their all here is the fact they were embarrassed 31 to 7 at home when these teams met back in July. That means a little payback is on order here and I'll gladly grab the double digits with the road dog that has the situational and motivational edges. The Alouettes are showing that they are completely behind their new QB Rakeem Cato as Kevin Glenn is now in Winnipeg with the Blue Bombers. Cato played quite well last week with completing about 75% of his passes and throwing no picks while Tiger-Cats QB Zach Collaros and the Hamilton offense struggled last week at Toronto. The Alouettes have had a frustrating season but anything can happen in the tightly packed East Division and this spot favors the big road dog in a big way. With Montreal a double digit dog in this one, that is the way to go here. 10* MONTREAL Friday |
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09-15-16 | Jets v. Bills +1.5 | 37-31 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #102 - 8* Buffalo Bills (+) vs New York Jets @ 8:25 ET Thursday - Certainly the Bills offense was ugly in their 13-7 loss at Baltimore last week. Definitely this is a revenge spot for the Jets after Buffalo went 2-0 against them last season with the season finale win keeping the Jets from the playoffs. However, all of that said, Bills coach Rex Ryan has a special disdain for his former team, the Jets, and he and the entire city of Buffalo will "bring it" again tonight. I definitely like the value afforded by the line move here as the Bills opened up as a 3 point favorite but are now a 1.5 point dog as of very early gameday morning. Some key ATS stats are certainly in our favor here. Buffalo is 7-1 ATS the last 8 times they are off of a game where they scored less than 10 points. Also, the Bills are 5-1 ATS when they are in the first of back to back home games. With this being Buffalo's home opener, and with a home game on deck with a strong Arizona team, the Bills will be "all in" to win this game which certainly strengthens the validity of that 5-1 ATS mark in this spot. As for the Jets, note the Bills did open up as a FG fave here and certainly it would not surprise me to see this line move back to where Buffalo ends up being favored in this game. Should that occur, note that the Jets are 1-6 ATS as road dogs of less than 4 points. Though the Bills have struggled on the road in recent seasons (and that continued in Week 1) they are a different team at home. Buffalo is 16-8 ATS in home games the past 3 seasons combined. The Jets lost a handful of starters from the defense in the off-season and I expect that side of the ball to be their downfall this season. In their season opener the Jets allowed the Bengals to complete 23 of 30 passes for 324 yards. The Jets are 3-8 ATS in games with a posted line between +3 and -3 the last 3 seasons combined. Buffalo is on an 8-3 ATS run in divisional games. The Bills also are on a 4-0 ATS run in home openers. Orchard Park, NY will be rocking tonight as a big home win over a hated rival will do wonders for this team and they are starting to believe that they can finally break their 17-year post-season drought as they have inched closer to being a playoff team the past two seasons with a 9-7 record in 2014 and playing .500 ball in 2015. The Bills laid an egg last week on offense against the Ravens but they've shown a history of bouncing back after ugly efforts like that on the offensive side of the ball. Look for the Bills to play another solid defensive game to complement a bounce back performance on offense that attacks the Jets suspect secondary. 8* BUFFALO BILLS Thursday |
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09-12-16 | Steelers -2.5 v. Redskins | 38-16 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
Monday Night Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #479 - 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (-) @ Washington Redskins @ 7:10 ET Monday - We're getting some line value here since running back LeVeon Bell is out for the Steelers (for the first 3 games) and also wide receiver Martavis Bryant is suspended for this season. The key is that the Pittsburgh ground game has ample support behind Bell and, there also is reason to believe that one of the top passing offenses in the league will again do just fine here. Remember the retirement of Hines Ward before the 2012 season? Or how about the departures of Mike Wallace in 2013 and Emmanuel Sanders in 2014? No matter what the situation, the Steelers have consistently found other guys ready to "step up" and pair with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to provide great complimentary firepower to #1 wide receiver Antonio Brown. I don't expect this to be any different against the Washington Redskins on Monday night as the Steelers have some talent that could "step up" once again with guys like Sammie Coates and Eli Rogers. With the Steelers on the road and with the impact of the suspension, this potential Super Bowl contender is priced at very low number and that price has dropped a little making 3 a "win number" now for Pittsburgh. That means it is now "go time" for me. The Redskins have a history of struggling (5-16 ATS) in Monday night home games. Also, even though Washington is a home dog here, that is a role that - when not facing an NFC East foe - has seen the 'Skins go 4-9 ATS overall in recent seasons. Outside of their division, the Redskins don't look so strong! As I wrote in my NFL Preview analysis prior to the season, the problem with the Redskins in my opinion, from a “value” standpoint, is that many will be on the Washington bandwagon early on when looking at the NFC East. That’s because of the Cowboys dealing with the Romo injury coupled with the fact that Washington won the division last season. As I noted then, I am expecting to see some nice “go against” ATS spots with the Redskins early this season in particular. That said, here is our first one as, sure enough, some Washington money is coming in and knocking this line down and the line was already 'short' in my opinion. The Steelers are one of the best teams in the league, the Redskins are not even necessarily the best team in the NFC East - a division that arguably could go to any of the 4 teams. Take advantage of the value here with the Bell suspension. 8* PITTSBURGH Monday. |
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09-11-16 | Patriots v. Cardinals -7 | 23-21 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 8 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #478 - 8* Arizona Cardinals (-) vs New England Patriots @ 8:30 ET Sunday - The Patriots have gone 15-6-3 ATS at home the past three seasons combined while only going 8-16 ATS on the road during this same stretch. I look for the road struggles to continue in a very tough "first test" missing some key players early this season. Rob Gronkowski is dealing with a hamstring injury and of course then there is the Tom Brady suspension (first four games of the season). That the Pats will have Jimmy Garoppolo under center early this season and that will certainly have an impact here against a tough Cardinals team. Even though the line has been adjusted due to the situation with these two key players, it is not enough. Keep in mind that the Pats have enjoyed a lot of success for many years thanks to beating up on a relatively weak AFC East division. This season, the Patriots will be facing the AFC North and NFC West as part of the non-divisional action and that means some tougher match-ups for New England just like this one at Arizona! Garoppolo has had only 31 passing attempts in his NFL career. He is a back-up for a reason! While the Pats have thrived in the AFC East it is impressive what Arizona has done outside of the NFC West! The Cards are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games outside of their division. The Cardinals are one of the most balanced teams as they are so "stacked" on both sides of the ball and the Cards are so well coached. Arizona has gotten off to fast starts under Bruce Arians in each of his three seasons and this not just SU but also at the betting window as they are 11-4 ATS in their first 5 games over the 3 seasons. With Garoppolo, and not Brady, leading the Pats this is the perfect time to fade Bill Belichick as Cardinals coach Arians is one of the best in the league and he's got the better personnel on the field for this one plus home field edge. 8* ARIZONA CARDINALS |
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09-11-16 | Giants +1 v. Cowboys | Top | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #473 - 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET Sunday - The Cowboys lost 11 of their 12 games without Tony Romo last season and, of course, that is the big story line coming into the new season after he got hurt in the preseason. One of the big keys here is that Dak Prescott is being hailed for his preseason performance with Dallas and that he should hit the ground running for the Cowboys here in Game one. The problem with that angle is that regular season is nothing like preseason. The trouble for Prescott is not going to be his athletic ability or his arm strength or his legs. The problem is going to be making proper adjustments to all the defensive sets he's going to see with stunts, blitzes, etc that are the type of things Prescott did not see in the preseason. The Giants offense can take advantage of a Cowboys defense that is missing some starters early this season due to suspension. With head coach McAdoo (former Packers OC), a Giants offense that ranked in the top ten of the league last season is likely to make strides again this season as they've added even more firepower. The defense also looks improved after a big spend in free agency and the Cowboys have only covered 3 of their last 14 games. Also, Dallas has long been known for struggling in their home stadium and they are actually and ugly 1-7 ATS in home openers! These teams are bitter rivals and the Giants have lost to the Cowboys in a season opener 3 of the last 4 years and now it is payback time as NY has the big edges in this season opener. Let's also not forget we're fading a Dallas team here that won only 4 games last season and that has struggled so badly when Romo is not under center. More of the same here. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS |
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09-11-16 | Browns v. Eagles -3 | 10-29 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show | |
Early Shocker - Rickenbach NFL Game #458 - 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Cleveland Browns @ 1 ET Sunday - After being favored by 7, the Eagles are now down to as a low as a 3 point favorite as of Saturday evening. This is simply an insane line drop and one I will gladly take advantage of. Carson Wentz is not a typical rookie. The Eagles first rookie QB to start the first game of a season since 1939 ran a pro-style offense in college. Additionally, the guy is wise beyond his years and is an extremely intelligent player. He has grasped the Eagles offense much quicker than even the most ardent Wentz supporters could have expected. Not only that but let's not forget this is still an Eagles team that has averaged 9 wins per season the last three years. They're AT HOME and hosting a Browns team that has not won more than 5 games in ANY of the last 8 seasons. It is going to be a phenomenal atmosphere at The Linc in Philly as the fans are thrilled to see Bradford gone and welcome in the Wentz era. The Browns are 14-50 SU in road games the last 8 seasons and this is a very small number in this one after the line move so a Browns loss is very likely to lead to an Eagles cover! Keep in mind that Cleveland will be without WR Josh Gordon for the first 4 games of this season (suspension). The Browns have lost 11 straight season openers by an average margin of a dozen points per defeat. Cleveland enters the new season having lost 10 of its past 11 regular season games and the Eagles have won their season opener in 4 of the last 5 years. I am calling this one a shocker because seemingly everyone has bought into Cleveland since the opening line came out and then AGAIN after the Bradford trade. You know what normally happens in the NFL when the masses are lining up on one side! Give me the Eagles. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-10-16 | North Carolina -7.5 v. Illinois | Top | 48-23 | Win | 101 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #373 - Non-Conf Game of the Year - 10* Top Play North Carolina Tar Heels -7.5 @ Illinois @ 7:30 ET Saturday - North Carolina put up quite a battle at Georgia last week but, after leading 24-14, the Tar Heels then allowed the final 19 points of the game to the Bulldogs. I had Georgia last week and was not surprised by the end result. However, what did surprise me is that, even though Heels starting QB Trubisky struggled some, the Tar Heels truly battled hard against a quality opponent and they now take a big step down in class as they face Illinois. Of course the Illini are now led by head coach Lovie Smith who had spent many years in the NFL. While I have plenty of respect for Mr. Smith it is going to take awhile for him to build this team in the way he wants. Illinois is off of an impressive win in Week 1 but that came against an over-matched Murray State team. Also, the Illini certainly were also helped by a turnover factor of 3-0 in favor of Illinois. The line on this Week 2 game opened up at a 10. Of course the betting markets see a road fave of double digits that ended up blowing their game at Georgia and they see an Illinois team off of a 52-3 win and now a home dog and we all see what then happens to this line. As of Friday afternoon it is down to a 7.5 and though I'd like to have a 7 here it is "go time" for me with this one. While the Illini may be feeling a little too good about themselves after last week's dominating win the Tar Heels come into this game very hungry for a win and they only have James Madison on deck. They blasted Illinois 48-14 last season but coach Larry Fedora has his troops ready for this one and certainly has warned his team that this will be a different Illini team with Lovie Smith at the helm. The problem for Lovie is he returns only 9 starters from last year's team and they are projected to be among the bottom feeders in the Big Ten while the Tar Heels are expected to finish near the top of the ACC. The Illini only returned one starter from their back seven on defense this season and they're trying to stop a UNC offense that ranked 2nd in the ACC and 18th in the nation last year with 487 yards per game. As you can see, this should prove to be a road rout! 10* North Carolina -7.5 Saturday evening |
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09-10-16 | Northern Illinois +15 v. South Florida | 17-48 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 59 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #337 - Contrarian Cashout - 8* Northern Illinois Huskies +15.5 @ South Florida Bulls @ 7 ET Saturday - The Bulls have been a popular choice. this week. They are a solid team but to rise from a 12 to all the way about a two TD spread here is a little much. I am certainly well aware of the fact that the Huskies had a very late game at Wyoming last week for more reasons than one. Not only was the game time pushed back by bad weather in the area but also it ended up being a triple-overtime thriller. While certainly a game like this that ends (literally) the next morning can be impacting to a team, lets keep in mind a few key points here. One, the Huskies lost the game and are very focused on getting into the win column this week. Two, it is very early in the season (of course) and so this type of effort (while certainly a significant effort) is not going to leave a team totally spent in what will now be just their 2nd game of the season. The Huskies are hungry and they're focused and it also doesn't hurt that this is an evening game Saturday. Much better than had it been a Noon ET start (11 AM on UNI body clocks). Another positive factor here is that Northern Illinois was only an 8-5 team in the regular season last year but they did reach double digits in victories each of the FIVE prior seasons. Yes, they are "only" a MAC team but this is a team that is use to winning. Also, last year they did beat Toledo (a 10-2 team) and their losses to Boston College and Ohio State came by only a combined 10 points! South Florida played "only" an FCS team last week and also running back Marlon Mack is not 100%. Additionally, the Bulls are now the hunted and this is not a role they are use to being in. A lot of points being laid here for a USF team on a 6-14 ATS run as a home favorite. Note that the Huskies are on a 15-4 ATS run as an away dog. I'll grab the big points with a solid QB (Hare back from injury) leading the way in what should be a much closer game than odds makers are calling for. 8* Northern Illinois Saturday evening |
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09-10-16 | Wake Forest v. Duke -5 | 24-14 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #340 - Daytime Dominator - 8* Duke Blue Devils -5 vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ 3:30 ET Saturday - Both teams are off of season opening wins but while Wake Forest struggled against a Tulane team that has won 3 games or less in 4 of the last 5 years, Duke absolutely blew out their opponent. Granted it was an FCS shool but NC Central was no match for the Blue Devils and allows them to build up confidence heading into this match-up with the Demon Deacons. In last year's meeting Duke never trailed the entire way and they are now 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings with 5 straight SU Blue Devils victories. Wake Forest used two quarterbacks in last week's game against Tulane and neither played well as evidenced by the Demon Deacons ending up with a yardage deficit of 280 to 175 versus the Green Wave. Duke did not fare well ATS as a home favorite last season but they had gone 12-3 as a home fave in the three prior seasons so, as you can see, they have generally fared very well in this role. The Demon Deacons are on an ugly 14-24 ATS run as a road dog. Also, Wake Forest's first road game the last 7 years has seen them lose every single not only straight-up but also ATS. 8* Duke Saturday afternoon. |
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09-06-16 | Cubs v. Brewers +1.5 | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #910 - Run Line Rout - 8* Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 runs -110 vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:10 ET Tuesday - Looking at full season numbers can be "dangerous" and I believe that is the case here and will have many "fooled" with the Cubs in this particular situation. Certainly on the season Jason Hammel has been much stronger for Chicago then Wily Peralta has been for Milwaukee. However, Peralta has been rock solid in the 5 starts he's made since returning to the Brewers rotation in August. In particular, Peralta has dominated at home where, in his last 4 starts, he has allowed only 6 earned runs on 16 hits while striking out 26 in the 24 innings spanning these four outings. Hammel's last 4 road starts, including one at Milwaukee, have seen him rocked for 25 runs (21 earned) in less than 15 innings of work! Even though the Cubs are 7-3 in their last 10 games, 5 of those victories have come by just a single run. That means the Cubbies, at -1.5 runs are on an ugly 2-8 run and I'll gladly fade them here. The Brewers are 8-7 in their last 15 games but 3 of the losses came by just one run so Milwaukee, at +1.5 runs, are on an 11-4 run. The Brewers have excelled as a home dog of +150 to +175 including going 6-3 this season! Though an outright upset would not surprise, I am grabbing the +1.5 runs in case the Cubs are able to sneak out a tight 1-run win. 8* Milwaukee on the RUN LINE Tuesday |
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09-05-16 | Ole Miss v. Florida State -5 | 34-45 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #212 - ESPN Smash Pass - 8* Florida State Seminoles (-) vs Ole Miss Rebels @ 8 ET Monday - The Seminoles simply return too much talent in comparison with the Rebels. While Florida State returns nearly their entire offense from last season and much of a solid defensive unit as well, Ole Miss returns very little especially on the offensive side of the ball. Yes they have their ultra talented QB back and certainly have a huge experience edge at the QB position. However, the Rebels are essentially rebuilding their offense (other than the QB spot) and their rebuilding process on the offensive line is bad news when you're facing a Seminoles defense that has an extremely talented and veteran defensive line. Look for this to be a mismatch in the trenches and that should help lead the Noles to a solid win by a comfortable margin in this one. The Seminoles not only essentially have home field edge here with this "neutral site game" being played in Orlando, they also have the hunger factor working in their favor. Both of these teams went into their bowl games last year as a 7.5 point favorite. While the Rebels won theirs by 4 TDs the Noles lost theirs by 2 TDs. FSU has been anxious to get back on the field ever since and I expect the Seminoles to roll through the Rebels like a buzzsaw in this one. Though the Noles have a redshirt freshman QB he is ultra-talented and the Seminoles are also loaded at the other skill positions including phenomenal running back Dalvin Cook and wide receiver Travis Rudolph. 8* FLORIDA STATE Monday night |
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09-05-16 | Edmonton +7 v. Calgary | Top | 24-45 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
Rickenbach CFL Game #219 - Daytime Dominator - 10* Edmonton Eskimos +7 @ Calgary Stampeders @ 3 ET Monday - The Stampeders won the Grey Cup in 2014. The Eskimos won it last year. In getting there in 2015 Edmonton had to get by Calgary to get there and they did just that by winning their 3rd straight match-up with them in playoff action on November 22nd before winning it all on November 29th. Now, in their first match-up of this season (and the annual Battle of Alberta on Labour Day), the Stampeders certainly are hungry for revenge and they have the home field edge for this one as well. However, a key aspect I see here is that Calgary relies heavily on protection of their QB to make this offense "go" and they've got an offensive line injury at centre. This is forcing another lineman to take over the centre position and it's thrusting a rookie into play at right tackle. The Eskimos defensive line has some players who are very strong when it comes to creating chaos in the backfield by quickly getting past the opposition's offensive line. In this case I look for that o play a key role in this game as Edmonton is just as hungry as Calgary for this game. Yes it is the Stampeders with revenge but the Eskimos are the defending Grey Cup champs who have had some disappointment early this season. Edmonton has responded by winning three straight and they are relishing this opportunity to take down their provincial rivals and, in doing so, they would be knocking off the team that is at the top of the entire league so far this season. That said, I'll gladly grab the big points being offered here. 10* EDMONTON on Monday afternoon |
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09-04-16 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan +4.5 | Top | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
Rickenbach CFL Game #218 - Daytime Dominator - 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders +4.5 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 3 ET Sunday - The Roughriders ONE AND ONLY home game between Week 8 and Week 13 is this one. They want to make it count and Saskatchewan is also catching Winnipeg off of a huge road win at Montreal last week. Even though the Roughriders have, by far, the worst record in the CFL, they are coming off of a strong effort at Edmonton last week. I can see many being enticed into playing the Blue Bombers here and laying a rather short number on the road. After all, Winnipeg is 4-1 on the road this season while Saskatchewan is 1-8 overall this season. Don't fall for the "trap line" here on the Blue Bombers as the Roughriders are quite likely to pull off the shocker here at home as this one is all about situational handicapping. The scheduling situation (for both teams) and the line (surprising # on this one) is all you need to know here. However, I will also add that Winnipeg is on a 2-5 ATS run as a favorite while the Roughriders have a long-term 73-53 ATS mark as an underdog in a range of +3.5 to +9.5 points. Grab the points here! 10* Saskatchewan Sunday afternoon |
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09-03-16 | BYU v. Arizona +1.5 | Top | 18-16 | Loss | -106 | 31 h 55 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #206 - Game of the Month - 10* Top Play Arizona Wildcats +2.5 vs Brigham Young Cougars @ 10:30 PM ET Saturday - Tremendous line move here as the Wildcats have gone all the way from being 2.5 point faves to being 2.5 point dogs in this match-up. I do understand what many are looking at here. BYU is a veteran team and has the much better defense in comparing numbers with that of Arizona. Also, the Cougars "veteran" team is defined by a lot of returning starters on the offensive side of the ball including a big, experienced offensive line. This is viewed as a mismatch going against the smallish defensive line of the Wildcats. However, here are the keys that combat all this. Speedy linemen have a way of shooting the gaps when facing bigger opposition and speed kills. Arizona's defensive line may surprise with how they perform in this game. Additionally, Rich Rodriguez is in his fifth year as the head coach at Arizona while Kalani Sitake is not only in his first year as BYU's head coach, it is the first year he's been a head coach anywhere. Additionally, being an independent means the Cougars don't have conference games to look forward to. What motivates a team like this is a game like exactly what they have on deck next week. Brigham Young has a huge revenge match-up in their "Holy War" battle at Utah. The Cougars were absolutely embarrassed in last year's 35-28 bowl loss to the Utes in which BYU was down 35-0 in the first quarter. They can't help but have their sights set on that upcoming big-game match-up next week especially since the Cougars have now lost five straight to Utah! Arizona will have the home field edge (though this game is being played at the University of Phoenix Stadium) and the Wildcats are a Pac 12 offensive juggernaut. The Cats averaged 37 points per game last season and BYU (already peeking ahead to the Utes revenge game) simply is not going to be able to keep up in this one. Look for Rodriguez to outcoach Sitake in the latter's head coaching debut. 10* ARIZONA late Saturday night |
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09-03-16 | North Carolina v. Georgia -3 | 24-33 | Win | 100 | 26 h 58 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #196 - ESPN Smash Pass - 8* Georgia Bulldogs -3 vs North Carolina Tar Heels @ 5:30 PM ET Saturday - Two quality teams in this match-up but considering the short line and the SEC vs ACC angle, there is great line value with a Bulldogs team that is also accustomed to playing in the Georgia Dome. This is truly not a "neutral site" game as the venue favors Georgia in a big way. The Bulldogs have a big edge on defense as North Carolina ranked much worse on yardage allowed than points allowed per game last season. In other words, the Tar Heels were fortunate and that defense now has to put up with the battering ram that is Nick Chubb and the powerful Bulldogs ground game. North Carolina got torched by teams with solid rushing attacks last season and this does not bode well for their opening game this season. The Bulldogs have a new head coach and he wants to get off of on the right foot. The Tar Heels have Fedora who is in his 5th year at North Carolina. Last year UNC lost their opener to South Carolina and they face a much tougher SEC opponent this time around. A big key here is that the Bulldogs are 29-7 SU and 25-10-1 in their last 36 games against ACC competition. The past two seasons Georgia went 7-3 ATS in non-conference action while North Carolina went 3-7 ATS in non-conference action. Two high-quality programs but SEC continues to hold the upper hand and the Tar Heels have lost 4 straight games (including 0-4 ATS) played on neutral sites. New Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart was the DC at Alabama the past 9 seasons and he played at Georgia for 4 years in the late 90's. It's a new era beginning post-Mark Richt and the Bulldogs led the SEC in pass defense last year and returned all the starters from their secondary. The Tar Heels have had some big offensive production highlight their reason campaigns but they don't have the defense to hang tough in this one. The Bulldogs have the superior defense. The Heels improved with defensive coordinator Gene Chizik last season but the way they fell off late in the season all the way through to their bowl game was quite alarming. Great line value on the more "settled" team here. 8* GEORGIA Saturday evening |
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09-03-16 | Western Michigan v. Northwestern -4.5 | Top | 22-21 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #160 - High Noon Top Blowout - 10* Top Play Northwestern Wildcats -4.5 vs Western Michigan Broncos @ Noon ET Saturday - You can tell by the line movement on this game (downward) that many are looking at the Broncos as an underdog in this early Saturday match-up. I completely respect Western Michigan as a MAC team but that is the key to the equation surrounding my big play on Northwestern in this match-up. The Wildcats are a Big Ten team that went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their non-conference games last year. Note that the Broncos went just 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS outside of the MAC last season. I am well aware of the fact that Western Michigan has gone bowling each of the last two years and has been a team on the rise in the MAC. However, the last time they played Northwestern they got rolled by a 3 TD margin and the Wildcats have won 8 of their last 9 home openers. With this line moving down there is even more value on Northwestern here as we laying a rather small number against a team from an inferior conference. Remember last year the Wildcats home opener featured an upset win over Stanford. Even though Western Michigan is no Stanford (in terms of motivation for a big win) there is no way that the Wildcats will overlook the Broncos as Northwestern has Illinois State on deck. That means there is definitely no lookahead factor here. The Wildcats were very strong on defense last year and return 6 starters from that D which gives them a huge edge in comparing the defensive capabilities of these two teams. Northwestern allowed only 16 points per game last year while Western Michigan allowed 28 points per game. Over the last 25 years the Broncos are 3-26 SU against Big Ten teams. Over this same period, the Wildcats are 12-5 SU against MAC teams. Big difference in terms of the level of competition and I feel this is a very reasonable line on the superior team whom also has the home field edge. Lay it. 10* NORTHWESTERN early Saturday. |
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09-03-16 | Georgia Tech v. Boston College +3 | 17-14 | Push | 0 | 16 h 54 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #154 - Breakfast Bash - 8* Boston College Eagles +3 vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (game played in Ireland) @ 7:30 AM ET Saturday - One of the big advantages that the Yellow Jackets generally have over their opponents is that they don't have a lot of time to prep for the option. Of course that is not the case when it comes to this season opening game against Boston College. The Eagles have had plenty of time to get ready for the option attack of Georgia Tech. On top of that, Boston College had one of the top defenses in the nation last year and the Eagles return 15 starters this season while the Yellow Jackets are returning only 11 starters. Boston College ranks a big edge when you compare these two defenses and also ranks an edge in terms of the all-important experience factor that is so critical especially early in the season. The Yellow Jackets have made it easy on themselves in recent years by not scheduling FBS opposition to open the season. That changes this year with not only facing an FBS school but facing one of the teams with the best defenses in the country (particularly against the run) and facing them in Ireland on top of all that! The last time the Jackets faced an FBS school to open up a season they were held to just 17 points. The Eagles allowed only 15 points per game last season. The Yellow Jackets allowed 26 points per game last season. The Boston College offense is sure to show some improvement and facing a defense that is only returning 5 starters from last season certainly helps in that regard. 8* BOSTON COLLEGE early Saturday morning. |
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09-02-16 | Colorado State v. Colorado -8 | 7-44 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #150 - ESPN Game of the Week - 8* Colorado Buffaloes -8 vs Colorado State Rams @ 8 ET Friday - In a rivalry game it is often enticing to grab the points with the underdog. In fact, the dog in this series is 13-6-1 ATS. However, prior to last year's OT win for the Buffaloes, 5 of the 7 prior meetings had been decided by a margin of at least 14 points. I expect another lopsided win in this year's match-up between these fierce rivals as Colorado simply has a huge edge in experience and the Rams have major concerns on defense. While the Buffs return 18 starters from last year, Colorado State only returns 10 starters. Particularly concerning for the Rams is that they lost their defensive coordinator from last year and they also lost all the starters from the defensive line and some of their best players in the secondary as well. CSU is likely to struggle in the trenches early this season and also will be susceptible to blown coverages downfield. In other words, the Rams are in trouble as they are unlikely to stop either the run game or the passing attack of a Pac 12 Buffaloes team that went 3-1 in non-conference action last season and averaged 38 points per game. Colorado is very experienced on the defensive side of the ball and coordinator Jim Leavitt is now in his 2nd season with the program and he has more experienced personnel to work with this season. Leavitt's blitz packages and the "stunts" will keep the Rams offense from getting comfortable in this one. This game is being played in Denver where the Buffaloes have won 6 of the last 8 with an average margin of victory of 13 points. Look for the Rams to drop to 1-4 ATS a neutral field underdog of 7.5 to 10 points. 8* COLORADO Friday |
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09-01-16 | Ottawa -2.5 v. Montreal | Top | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
Rickenbach CFL Game #215 - Divisional Dominator - 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks -2.5 @ Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - Not only are the Alouettes without their star receiver (Duron Carter) due to suspension, their offense has struggled for much of this season. 4 interceptions created a disaster for the Als last week and now they face an Ottawa team fully focused on exacting revenge after an ugly, embarrassing home loss (43-19) two weeks ago. The Redblacks now have their starting QB back and he should be even stronger in his 2nd game back. Ottawa was heavily penalized in last week's game (a loss) and they'll have that cleaned up for this rematch with a division rival this week. The Redblacks had won 4 straight meetings with Montreal before the loss in Ottawa two weeks ago. As a road fave of 3 points or less Ottawa is on a long-term 4-1 (80%) ATS run. Also, the Redblacks excel in games that are projected to be tight. In games with a line of +3 to -3 Ottawa has gone 20-9 SU and 19-10 ATS long-term. Montreal is 0-3 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less this season. Also, the Als are 9-17 ATS when playing with 6 days or less of rest. Look for the Redblacks to get revenge against a short-handed Alouettes team. 10* OTTAWA Thursday evening. |
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08-29-16 | White Sox v. Tigers -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #918 - Run Line Rout - 10* Top Play Detroit Tigers -1.5 -105 vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:10 ET Monday - The White Sox James Shields is off of a better start against the Phillies but Philadelphia hadn't faced him since last season. Now he faces a Tigers team that is very familiar with him and seeing him for the 4th time in the last 2 and 1/2 months. That doesn't bode well for Shields who has allowed 14 runs in the 16 innings spanning these three recent starts against Detroit. Also, Shields comes into this start having gone 0-4 in his 5 August starts with a 13.95 ERA and he's been rocked at a .408 clip in these outings. He's likely to get clobbered by the Tigers here and that should provide plenty of run support for Detroit's Matt Boyd to win this game by at least two runs. The Tigers southpaw is 5-0 with a 2.38 ERA in his last 8 starts (and 1 relief appearance) since he moved back into Detroit's rotation. The Tigers are hungry to bounce back after back to back losses to the Angels followed a 5 game winning streak that saw Detroit score 7.8 runs per game with every victory coming by a margin of at least two runs. The White Sox last 16 losses have come by an average margin of 3 runs per defeat and, with a complete pitching mismatch here, this looks like another blowout loss for Shields and the ChiSox. Each of the White Sox last 4 losses with Shields on the mound have come by at least 2 runs with 3 of them by 6 runs or more. 10* DETROIT -1.5 runs on the Run Line Monday Evening. |
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08-28-16 | Chargers +5.5 v. Vikings | Top | 10-23 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
Rickenbach NFLX Game #277 - Game of the Year - 10* Top Play San Diego Chargers +5.5 @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET Sunday - After opening up at a 4 this line has been driven as high as a 5.5 in some shops as of about 24 hours before kickoff. I am pulling the trigger now on what I feel is a fantastic value situation. I am certainly well aware of the stellar record that the Vikings have had in PreSeason action under head coach Mike Zimmer. However, they won their first game this season by just a single point. Then, even though they won the 2nd game by a full TD that came on an INT returned for a touchdown. The point is that the Vikings have not been as impressive this preseason as they were the last two years. They are opening up a new stadium Sunday but, in PreSeason action, that is just not going to be the boost that it will be in the regular season when crowd noise is truly a factor. That's, of course, because that's when the games count. As for this NFLX match-up, I don't see the Vikings being able to create a big margin in this game. The Chargers are off a win last week and their defense was very strong against the run. San Diego, in my mind, is rallying around the entire Joey Bosa situation and his holdout is actually strengthening the resolve of this defensive unit. I look for another strong effort from the Chargers Sunday. The Chargers ugly loss in Week 1 of this PreSeason was a wake-up call and they've answered it. San Diego was "only" 2-2 SU in the PreSeason last year but the two losses came by a COMBINED 3 points. In other words, as a dog in this pointspread range the Bolts would have been 4-0 ATS last NFLX season and they'd now be on a 6-1 ATS run dating back to the final game of the 2014 preseason. The point is that, as a general rule, the Chargers have avoided ugly losses in preseason action. After resting QB Phillip Rivers last week, the Chargers are ready for the "dress rehearsal" game and I like the value with the big points here as the Vikings only had 258 yards of offense last week and they only won their week 1 game by a single point as I noted above. The Vikings will be the "trendy" pick in this one but I am fading the masses and everything I am seeing points to a very focused effort from the Chargers in this one. 10* SAN DIEGO Sunday |
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08-26-16 | Steelers +3 v. Saints | 27-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 12 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL Game #259 - Blowout Rout - 8* Pittsburgh Steelers +3 @ New Orleans Saints @ 8 ET Friday - The Steelers not only were shutout last week in ugly 17-0 loss (4 Landry interceptions) it also was their 2nd straight loss to open up the Preseason. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has his team fired up about responding this week in the critical week 3 "dress rehearsal" game. The past two Preseasons Pittsburgh only went 2-7 but they NEVER lost more than 2 straight in a preseason. They went 1-4 last season and 1-3 in the Preseason two years ago. Tomlin had entered that season with a Preseason record of 22-10 (69%) as a head coach. In other words, even in preseason, the highly competitive Tomlin does not like to lose. The Saints also come into this game off of back to back losses to open up their preseason but New Orleans went 0-4 in last year's preseason. Even with their 3-1 in the 2014 preseason note that one of those three wins came by just 2 points. Laying 3 points in all their games the Saints would now be on a 2-8 ATS run the last 2+ preseasons. The Steelers are happy about having to face Drew Brees and Company on the road as coach Tomlin feels it is a good test they are welcoming with open arms. Keep in mind this is a Super Bowl caliber Pittsburgh team that does have good depth on its roster and they are highly motivated in this spot. That will make a New Orleans win very tough to come by as I like the Steelers playmakers on defense too and I am gladly grab the generous points here as the Saints have gone from a near pick'em to now being favored by a full field goal. 8* PITTSBURGH Friday |
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08-26-16 | Angels v. Tigers -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #972 - Run Line Rout - 10* Top Play Detroit Tigers -1.5 -105 vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:10 ET Friday - The Angels, the last two games notwithstanding, have truly struggled on the road this season. After a 2nd straight upset win at Toronto last night, Los Angeles now faces a Tigers team that has won four straight games. Detroit also is happy to be back home as they look at atone for a rare, tough performance in their most recent homestand as they went 2-5 at home before going to Minnesota and getting the series sweep. Again, looking at the long-term numbers here you can see the Tigers at home have a big edge over the Angels on the road. Couple that with a huge pitching edge and we have the makings of a blowout win for Detroit in this one. That is why taking the run line at very nearly even money is offering great line value here. Of the last 14 team wins that the Tigers have had with Verlander on the mound, 11 of them have come by a margin of 2 runs or more. Verlander is 5-1 with a 1.93 ERA since the All Star break and teams are hitting a paltry .170 against him in those 8 starts. The Angels send Rickey Nolasco to the mound and they have lost all 4 of his starts since they acquired him. Overall this season Nolasco is 4-11 with a 5.22 ERA. The Tigers have hit him hard 2 of the 3 times they have faced him this season and the Angels bullpen is certainly not an area of strength. 10* DETROIT Run Line Friday |
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08-26-16 | Winnipeg v. Montreal | Top | 32-18 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
Rickenbach CFL Game #303 - Game of the Year - 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (Pick'em) @ Montreal Alouettes @ 7 ET Friday - Winnipeg is fresh off of their bye week and has won three straight games. QB Matt Nichols has led the way and the Blue Bombers have begun to surge following the handing of the pivot duties to Nichols from Drew Willy. This is a revenge game from a 22-14 home loss for Winnipeg earlier this season. The Blue Bombers have payback on their minds and Winnipeg has gotten the cash in 4 of their last 5 visits to Montreal. The Bombers certainly are catching the Alouettes at an ideal time. Montreal's offense has been very inconsistent this season. That said, it is hard to imagine that the Als will be able to have another big game after their huge divisional win at Ottawa last week. That win over the Redblacks was a key win for Montreal and is likely to leave them a little flat this week. Keep in mind too that the Alouettes offense has struggled for much of this season. The rested and highly motivated Blue Bombers are the play here as they continue their surge with Nichols orchestrating the offense. Montreal has another match-up with division rival Ottawa on deck while the Bombers only have last place Saskatchewan on deck. Situational edge definitely goes to the road team here and I expect the Blue Bombers to improve to 4-1 on the road and 4-1 against the East this season. Look for the Alouettes to drop to 1-4 in home games this season. 10* WINNIPEG Friday |
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08-25-16 | Falcons +3 v. Dolphins | 6-17 | Loss | -130 | 25 h 26 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFLX Game #251 - NBC Blowout - 8* Atlanta Falcons +3 @ Miami Dolphins @ 8 ET Thursday - The Falcons have played exceptionally well this preseason and certainly don't want to lose the momentum now in the true "dress rehearsal" game as week three annually sees the starters playing the most. Atlanta has the leading offense in the preseason so far and certainly can do some damage against a Dolphins defense that got shredded by the Cowboys last week. Although it is "only" preseason, the Falcons did lose at Miami last year in the preseason (13-9 loss) and they are anxious to show they are ready this week. The Dolphins don't have the QB rotation strength that the Falcons have and Miami also has a penchant for struggling in the Week 3 preseason game. In fact, the Dolphins have failed to cover 5 straight week 3 games. Conversely, the Falcons are on a 6-3 ATS run in Week 3 games. Atlanta coach Dan Quinn has been "hitting all the right buttons" in practice this week and I expect a strong effort from the Falcons here as they know they should have put up many more points last week considering they piled up nearly 500 yards of offense. The Dolphins would love to bounce back after getting annihilated 41-14 last week but they simply are outclassed here. The Falcons are on the way up as they've increased their win total each of the last three regular seasons while the Dolphins haven't improved their win total in three years. Again, this is the week that most closely resembles a regular season match-up and the Falcons are on top of their game right now and I like what I am hearing from coach Quinn heading into this one. 8* ATLANTA Thursday |
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08-25-16 | BC +2.5 v. Ottawa | 29-23 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
Rickenbach CFL Game #301 - ESPN2 Blowout - 8* BC Lions +2.5 @ Ottawa @ 7:30 ET Thursday - Look for the Lions to respond after being blown out last week. Yes, the Redblacks were also off of a blowout loss but I feel that BC was the team playing the much better ball before the bad loss. The Lions simply didn't have the emotion or intensity needed to knock off the Stampeders last week. It was almost as if BC expected that they could just show up (since they were at home) and knock off Calgary. True to form though, the road teams continued their domination this season and the Stampeders routed the Lions. Now BC makes a 9-day road trip to the East as they play Ottawa Thursday and then, the following week on Wednesday, the Lions will do battle with the Argonauts in Toronto. The Redblacks are "scuffling" after their bad loss to Montreal last week but BC already seems rejuvenated just by being on the road. It is truly "no wonder" as to why because the Lions are 3-1 on the road this season and note that Ottawa has won only 1 of their 4 home games this season. BC is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season when on the road and the Lions play this game with "double revenge" from last year as the Redblacks beat them by double digits in both games. The Lions defense had been fantastic before last week's game. They respond this week as does the entire team including QB Jonathon Jennings. 8* BC Lions Thursday |
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08-20-16 | Edmonton v. Toronto +3.5 | Top | 46-23 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
Rickenbach CFL Game #126 - Daytime Dominator - 10* Top Play Toronto Argonauts +3.5 vs Edmonton Eskimos @ 4 ET Saturday - The Argonauts are off of an ugly loss as Logan Kilgore had an awful game at pivot last week and threw 5 interceptions. He'll bounce back strong this week as he also gets a couple of key receiving targets back this week. Toronto is hungry to come up with a big game at home as, like most of the CFL, home wins have been hard to come by so far this season. The Eskimos are off of a big win last week but that could result in them coming up a little bit flat here this week against a non-divisional foe. Edmonton has struggled against the East this season and also, Eskimos pivot Mike Reilly has struggled against Toronto with a 1-4 mark in his career against Edmonton. The Eskimos also are without the services of a key defensive lineman for this game. The Argos are getting healthier, the Eskimos are not, the Argos are motivated off of an ugly home loss, Edmonton is flat off of a big home win last week. Add it all up and you have the perfect situation to back the motivated home dog in this weekend match-up that has been moved up from a 7 ET to a 4 ET start time. Daytime domination for the home team expected here as the Argos are hungry and ready to atone for last week's ugly loss. 10* TORONTO Saturday. |
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08-19-16 | Montreal +10 v. Ottawa | Top | 43-19 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
Rickenbach CFL Game #121 - Div Game of the Month - 10* Montreal Alouettes +9 @ Ottawa @ 7 ET Friday - The Redblacks are struggling on offense as they continue to be without starting pivot Trevor Harris and have had to turn to 41 year old Henry Burris at the pivot. Friday Ottawa faces a hungry Alouettes team that is looking to get their season turned around before it is too late and one of the keys that Montreal can fall back on is the fact that their defense has been solid this season. i look for the Als to turn this into a tight, defensive battle and that means it will be tough for the Redblacks to create any type of margin in this game. Ottawa, earlier this season, had an underdog mentality but now they are in the #1 spot in the East and have a bit of a "target" on their backs now. The Redblacks are unlikely to handle this as well as they handled their "dog" mentality and I look for the Alouettes to possibly even spring the upset here but certainly they should at least keep the game within a one score margin when all is said and done. Look for the Als to improve to 3-1 ATS in Friday games this season. Also, the road team has taken 4 of the last 6 meetings between these teams and one of those two losses came by only 3 points. Look for the road team to again get the cash here as Ottawa drops to 0-3 ATS this season when they are a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* MONTREAL Friday. |
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08-18-16 | Bears +3.5 v. Patriots | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFLX Game #407 - Contrarian Crusher - 8* Chicago Bears +3.5 @ New England Patriots @ 8 ET Thursday - After getting shutout in Week 1, look for the Bears to respond a big way here in Week 2. The Patriots Week 1 win over the Saints looks impressive to the casual observer but note that two of the touchdowns the Pats scored were non-offensive touchdowns. New England was outgained in their game last week and here they are laying more than a field goal against a Chicago team that will be determined to bounce back after the disappointing effort last week. The Bears faced a very tough Broncos defense but note that they now face a New England defense that gave up a lot of yardage to the Saints last week. Also, the Chicago defense did hold the Denver offense to just 13 points as the other 9 points scored were via a return for a TD and a safety. The fact is that the Bears did not play as bad as the final score from last week indicated and the Patriots did not play as well as their final score indicated. The result of this is line value this week and, in preseason, motivation is very important. The Bears are highly motivated after the 22-0 shutout loss last week. 8* CHICAGO |
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08-17-16 | Padres v. Rays -1.5 | 0-2 | Win | 105 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #926 - Run Line Rout - 8* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 +105 vs San Diego Padres @ 1:10 ET Wednesday - Chris Archer does not have a good record on the season but he certainly has deserved much better at home than what he's received. At Tropicana Field this season he has a 2.91 ERA in his 12 starts and he'll shut down a Padres team that is struggling to do much at the plate. In yesterday's 15-1 loss, San Diego was held to only 7 hits. Amazingly, that is the 9th straight game in which the Padres have been held to 7 hits or less. As for the Rays, their offense is getting back on track with a 3-game winning streak that has seen Tampa Bay erupt for 35 runs. The Rays should stay hot at the plate against Christian Friedrich as he has compiled an ugly 6.58 ERA in his last 10 starts. By playing the run line we get plus money on the superior pitcher plus we are fading a road team that is tied for the league lead in road losses with 39 already this season. As a road dog of +175 to +200 the Padres have gone 4-23 the past 3 seasons combined so the Rays are very likely to get the win here but of course I am not going to lay a 2 to 1 price on them. However, I will gladly lay the 1.5 runs knowing that the Rays have won by at least 2 runs in 16 of their last 17 victories. 4 of the Padres last 5 losses have come by at least 2 runs. 8* TAMPA BAY |
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08-15-16 | Nationals v. Rockies +1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 103 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #904 - RL Game of the Week - 10* Top Play Colorado Rockies +1.5 runs +105 vs Washington @ 8:40 ET Monday - The Rockies Jorge De la Rosa has pitched much better than his full season records show. In his 11 starts since mid-June he has allowed more than 3 earned runs only 1 time! In the other 10 starts he has made over this two month period De la Rosa has compiled a fantastic 2.69 ERA. De la Rosa also has a stellar 5-2 record in his career starts against Washington and he has a 1.86 ERA against the Nationals in his last 3 starts. Max Scherzer gets the start for the Nats in this one. Though he has pitched very well of late, pitching at Coors Field is always a challenge. Also, in his last two starts against the Rockies (both last August) Scherzer was quite hittable with 7 earned runs on 16 hits in his 12 innings of work. Scherzer is only 1-4 in his career against the Rockies. With the wind expected to be blowing in at Coors Field tonight I expect it to be tough for the Nationals to get any kind of big inning against De la Rosa in this one and the Rockies are likely to be in this one all the way which is why I see big value with the +1.5 runs available at plus money for this one. The Nationals are 4-3 in their last 7 games but two of those wins came by just a single run. The Rockies have been in a tough stretch on the road but 3 of their last 6 losses have come by a single run and certainly they are happy to be back home where De la Rosa is a fantastic 52-19 in his career! Fantastic underdog value here with the Rockies. 10* COLORADO Run Line +1.5 RUNS Monday |
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08-13-16 | Calgary v. Saskatchewan +6 | Top | 19-10 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
Rickenbach CFL Game #306 - Best Bet - 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders +6 vs Calgary Stampeders @ 7 ET Saturday - The final score shows an ugly 20 point loss for the Roughriders last week against the Stampeders. However, that game was tight until the fourth quarter and now Saskatchewan gets a shot at revenge and the rematch is at home for them. The Riders have extra motivation after the Stampeders incited some trash talk following the win at Calgary last week. Saskatchewan has a solid veteran QB that does not make many mistakes and, in fact, has not thrown a pick this season. The Stampeders have won 5 straight in this series and have covered 4 of those 5 games. However, this situation is a highly motivate spot for Saskatchewan at home as they won't be home again for another 3 weeks. With the way road teams dominated early this season we all know a reversal is coming...at least in terms of ATS numbers...and I am confident that, this time, the Roughriders keep this one tight for all 4 quarters rather than just the first 3. That said, there is great line value with the generous points being offered here. 10* SASKATCHEWAN +6 Saturday |
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08-13-16 | Seahawks +4 v. Chiefs | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFLX Game #273 - Chief Authority - 8* Seattle Seahawks +4 @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 4:30 ET Saturday - Quarterback rotations and depth are important factors in Preseason NFL but sometimes can be overestimated. I believe that is the case here because the Seahawks have unproven guys behind Russell Wilson and this has helped drive this line from a -1.5 up to a -4 on the Chiefs! This is offering key line value to a Seattle team that is certainly not known for "laying down" with Pete Carroll at the helm. Note that Carroll is 24-14-3 (63%) ATS in Preseason games in his career. Conversely, Andy Reid of Kansas City is 29-38-1 (43%) ATS in Preseason games. Even though the Chiefs are 5-3 SU in NFLX games the past two seasons, two of those wins came by 2 points or less. As for the Seahawks, though they only went 2-2 in the Preseason last year, only one of their four games was decided by more than two points and that was a 10-point WIN for Seattle. I just don't see the Seahawks being beaten by more than a field goal here and I really wouldn't be surprised to see them win outright. No matter the players on the field, Carroll has his team ready and is a tremendous competitor. Also, it is certainly worth noting that back-up QB Trevone Boykin is a dual-threat QB that is tremendously skilled and 3rd stringer Jake Heaps is having a great camp. The Hawks will be in this one all the way and I'll gladly take the additional line value being offered by the big line move in this one. 8* SEATTLE +4 |
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08-12-16 | Browns +3 v. Packers | 11-17 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFLX Game #269 - 8* Cleveland Browns +3 @ Green Bay @ 8 ET Friday - The Packers Aaron Rodgers is unlikely to play and, of course, even if he did it would be minimal action considering this is Game 1 of 4 for Green Bay in this pre-season. With Brett Hundley still hurting for the Pack, it is likely that the QB duties are going to be completely shared by unproven rookies in the form of Joe Callahan and Marquise Williams. I just don't see the Packers as being able to move the ball very much against a very hungry Browns team. Of course when the regular season rolls around Cleveland is destined to have another tough season but in the pre-season it is all about motivation and player rotations. The Browns are going to be giving their top guys a lot longer look than the Packers are in this game. Cleveland will have RG III opening up at QB and he'll be followed by Josh McCown so the Browns will have some NFL experience leading the way at the QB position. They also have a hungry head coach as Hue Jackson gets his first heading coaching gig since he was the head coach for the Raiders for five seasons ago. He is hungry and so too are the Browns. Even though Cleveland is only 2-6 the last 2 years in NFLX action, 3 of those 6 losses came by a single point and one came by just a field goal. There is excellent line value with the points here. Yesterday the home teams were the story in NFX action, look for more road success in day two! 8* CLEVELAND BROWNS |
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08-12-16 | Winnipeg +4 v. Toronto | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Rickenbach CFL Game #303 - 10* Top Play - Winnipeg Blue Bombers +4 @ Toronto Argonauts @ 7:30 ET Friday - The Argonauts are coming off of a win and a bye week and, as they've pushed up the East Division standings, may seem like a good "play on" team this week. However, the Blue Bombers have also been surging up the standings in the West Division and they have a bye week on deck. While Winnipeg will "leave it all on the field" this week knowing they have a bye on deck, note that Toronto has a game with the Grey Cup Champs, Edmonton, on tap for next week. The road teams have dominated much of this season so far in the CFL and the Blue Bombers have just one road loss this year while the Argos have only one home win so far this season. The Winnipeg secondary has been playing very well and, on the other side of the ball, they've been getting solid QB play. This is very significant because the passing game has been more emphasized than ever so far this season in the CFL. The Argonauts are dealing with the Ricky Ray injury at the QB position and this has put a lot of pressure on a young Logan Kilgore. That pressure tends to be amplified in home games. That said, I love the line value here with the road dog Blue Bombers as they continue to play solid defense. I look for Winnipeg to improve to 4-1 ATS so far this season in games where they are a dog in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. As for the Argonauts, they are 1-6 ATS the last 7 times they have entered a game on a winning streak of 2 games or more. Also, Toronto is on a 5-14 ATS run in home games! 10* WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS Friday |
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08-11-16 | Montreal v. Edmonton -6.5 | Top | 12-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Rickenbach CFL Game #302 - 10* Top Play Edmonton Eskimos -6.5 vs Montreal Alouettes @ 9 ET Thursday - Not going to get too wordy here. The Eskimos have uncharacteristically slumped early this season and they need a bounce back effort at home. Their offense is led by the league-leading passer and their defense has also forced a ton of fumbles this season. The Alouettes anemic offense simply won't be able to keep up. In fact, shut down their red-hot leading receiver and you've basically shutdown the Montreal offense. Edmonton is fired up for a huge effort at home after a tight road loss last week. As for the Als, they simply can't get it going and are off another embarrassing home loss last week where they were dominated. The Eskimos have won (and covered!) 4 straight against Montreal and I look for a big home win here and will take advantage of the downward line move. This one opened up at a 7.5 but has dropped to a 6.5 which is giving us even more value in a game that has the makings of a home rout. 10* EDMONTON |
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08-11-16 | Bucs +4 v. Eagles | 9-17 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFLX Game #253 - Philly Insider - 8* Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4 @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 7 ET - This line has gone from a -3 to a -4 on the Eagles and I feel that too much respect is being giving to Philadelphia when you consider the situation. Both teams have new head coaches and, though I respect Doug Pederson and feel he will do a good job with the Eagles, I feel the Buccaneers have an edge in this Game One match-up. Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter has a reputation for developing talent and bringing out the best in young players. This has been evident again so far in Tampa Bay's training camp and I especially like how the defense has performed thusfar in camp. The Buccaneers added a lot of defensive talent through the draft and in free agency. The Eagles made all the headlines this off-season with the drafting of Carson Wentz and I feel strongly that he will prove to be an excellent choice for Philly long-term. However, he's got a target on him right now because he is expected to play quite a bit in this pre-season opener and you can bet the Bucs defense (even though it will be back-ups) certainly doesn't want to be shown up by this highly touted NFL rookie. New defensive coordinator Mike Smith has been getting excellent production so far in camp with the Buccaneers. The Eagles are very thin at linebacker and already have some injury concerns too early on with the defense. That said, I'll take the better D (at least at this point in the pre-season and in terms of depth) with an equally hungry team (both teams fired up with new head coaches) that is also getting generous points here. 8* TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +4 |