|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-07-21||Chiefs -3 v. Bucs||Top||9-31||Loss||-114||266 h 15 m||Show|
50* CHIEFS/BUCS SUPER BOWL *BEST BET* (Chiefs -3)
This is an easy play for me on the Chiefs. I not only think the Chiefs win the game and cover, but I could see this thing getting out of hand. Kansas City had little to no problem moving the ball against the Bucs defense when these two teams played in the regular-season. The Chiefs put up 543 yards with Mahomes completing 37 of 49 attempts for 462 yards and 3 scores.
That's the thing, this Tampa Bay defense is built to stop the run. They just don't have the corners to hang with the weapons that this KC offense possess. I also think their pass rush will be negated with how good Mahomes is in the pocket.
Let's also not forget how bad Mahomes played for about 3.5 quarters of last year's Super Bowl and the Chiefs still won that game. I don't think Mahomes will play that poorly in his second Super Bowl.
As for Tom Brady and the Bucs offense, I think they could struggle. The Chiefs should be able to get pressure on Brady, as they got the guys in the secondary to matchup with Tampa Bay's weapons. Sure the Bucs could try and run the ball and might have some success, but it's only a matter of time before they have to throw to keep pace with the Chiefs offense. Give me Kansas City -3!
|01-24-21||Bills v. Chiefs -3||Top||24-38||Win||103||118 h 6 m||Show|
50* BILLS/CHIEFS AFC CHAMPIONSHIP *BEST BET* on Chiefs -3
I'm shocked the Chiefs are only a 3-point home favorite in the AFC Championship Game. I feel like this should be the line if Mahomes wasn't playing, but as expected he's been cleared to play. I get the Chiefs have struggled to cover down the stretch, but we are talking about a 3-point spread with a team that is 24-1 in Mahomes last 25 starts.
That includes a win over the Bills earlier this season. A game in which the Chiefs didn't need Mahomes to be great to win, as they rushed for more yards (245) than the Bills had total yards (206). KC's defense completely shutdown Josh Allen, who had a mere 66 passing yards in the 4th quarter before finishing with a mere 122.
I just think this Bills offense is a perfect matchup for the Chiefs, as Buffalo doesn't have a running game. If you can't play keep away from Mahomes and that KC offense you are in trouble and I think the the Chiefs defense can exploit Allen's lack of accuracy. I just don't see Mahomes losing a game of this magnitude at home. Give me the Chiefs -3!
|01-16-21||Rams +7 v. Packers||Top||18-32||Loss||-120||7 h 16 m||Show|
50* RAMS/PACKERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Rams +7)
I will gladly take the 7-points with the Rams against the Packers on Saturday. LA was my favorite sleeper pick coming into the playoffs. They lived up to the hype on Wild Card Weekend, going on the road and beating the Seahawks 30-20.
For me it's all about the Rams defense. They are so good across the board on that side of the ball. They can take away Aaron Jones and the run game and have one of the best corners in the league in Jalen Ramsey to matchup with Rodgers favorite weapon Davante Adams. There's just not a lot of other weapons out there for GB and if LA can get that pass rush going, the Rams could easily win this game outright. Give me Los Angeles +7!
|01-10-21||Bears +10.5 v. Saints||Top||9-21||Loss||-125||144 h 33 m||Show|
50* BEARS/SAINTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (BEARS +10.5)
I mentioned in the podcast I do during the week that road underdogs were 9-1-1 ATS over the last 3 seasons on Wild Card weekend. That improved to 11-1-1 with both the Colts and Rams covering as road dogs on Saturday. I fully expect the Bears to add to this red-hot trend on Sunday.
I played against Chicago as a 5.5-point home dog to the Packers in Week 17. Green Bay went on to cover in a 35-16 win, but it was not anywhere close to as big a blowout as that final score would indicate. The Packers had a mere 21-16 lead with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. Chicago outgained Green Bay 356 to 316.
This is simply no longer an anemic offense that the Bears have. When you couple their ability to now move the ball with a defense that can matchup with anyone, this team is built to keep games close and that's where the value comes in with this line at 10.5. Not to mention Drew Brees is not Aaron Rodgers, he doesn't put near the threat on the defense down the field that Rodgers does. Give me the Bears +10.5!
|01-09-21||Rams +5 v. Seahawks||Top||30-20||Win||100||120 h 42 m||Show|
50* RAMS/SEAHAWKS NFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR (Rams +5)
I love the Rams at this price and I don't care if Goff plays or not. I like LA to win this game outright. These two split their two regular-season meetings and while Seattle won the most recent matchup at home 20-9, the Rams outgained the Seahawks 334 to 292. They outgained them 389 to 333 in the first meeting.
This for me is all about the Rams defense and them being able to get stops. LA had the No. 1 total defense, allowing just 281.9 ypg and the No. 1 scoring defense, allowing 18.5 ppg. They were No. 1 against the pass, No. 3 against the run and were No. 2 in sacks. They also were one of the better teams running the football down the stretch, averaging close to 130 ypg over their last 6 games. If it's Wofford, he makes their ground game even that more potent.
The ability to put pressure on Russell Wilson and shutdown Metcalf with Ramsey is another huge reason I like the Rams in this game. I see this as a one-score game in the 4th quarter and that's where the value really comes from with the Rams at this price. Give me Los Angeles +5!
|01-03-21||Raiders v. Broncos +131||Top||32-31||Loss||-100||8 h 53 m||Show|
50* RAIDERS/BRONCOS AFC WEST PLAY OF THE MONTH (Broncos +131)
I love the Broncos here as a home dog that I'm going to just take them on the money line. I don't know if you can find a much worse spot for Las Vegas. The Raiders have went from 6-3 and looking like a sure playoff contender to 7-8 and completely out of it. Hard for a team that expected to be in the postseason to show up for a meaningless Week 17 game on the road against a bad team like the Broncos.
On top of that, you have to factor in the emotional toll that the last two games have had on this team. First it was the OT loss to the Chargers at home in prime time (TNF) and then last week's debacle against the Dolphins. That loss to Miami is as gut wrenching of a loss as you are going to find.
Denver's been out of it for a while now and I just think this young team is going to show up for their last game, especially with it being at home and against a team they despise in the Raiders. Give me the Broncos +131!
|12-27-20||Broncos v. Chargers -3||Top||16-19||Push||0||20 h 47 m||Show|
50* BRONCOS/CHARGERS AFC WEST GAME OF THE MONTH (Chargers -3)
I love the Chargers as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Broncos. After a season filled with finding ways to lose games, LA has flipped the script the last two weeks with a 20-17 home win over the Falcons in Week 14 and a thrilling 30-27 win at Las Vegas last week. I not only think the trend continues, I think they win here easily.
The Broncos have been decimated with injuries in their secondary, most notably at the corner position. Denver has not only lost both starting corners, Bryce Callahan and A.J. Bouye, but Kevin Tolliver, Duke Dawson and Essang Bassey have all suffered season-ending injuries. They also won't have one of their top pass rushers in Bradley Chubb. That's a big problem against talented rookie quarterback Justin Herbert.
On the flip side of things, Denver won't have their best back in Phillip Lindsay to take advantage of weak Chargers run defense and you can't trust Drew Lock at all. I just don't see the Broncos being able to keep pace offensively in this one. Give me the Chargers -3!
|12-20-20||Chiefs -2.5 v. Saints||Top||32-29||Win||100||7 h 10 m||Show|
50* CHIEFS/SAINTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Chiefs -2.5)
I just can't pass up on the Chiefs at -2.5. Kansas City is in control of the No. 1 seed in the AFC and are not going to take their foot off the gas these final 3 games. The big news for this game is that Drew Brees is returning from injury. I'm a bit shocked Brees is back this early and I just wonder what he's going to be able to do and how he will respond to a hit.
I'm sure they are going to try and rely heavily on their run game, but that only works if the defense can keep Mahomes and the KC offense in check. We have also seen time and time again teams who try to play keep away with the run game, they get up early, but can't sustain it for a full 4 quarters.
Another big thing for me is Mahomes wasn't great last week against the Dolphins with 3 interceptions. I can guarantee you that game has been itching at Mahomes all week. Great players almost always respond after a bad showing and I think that's what we get here. Give me the Chiefs -2.5!
|12-17-20||Chargers +3 v. Raiders||Top||30-27||Win||100||9 h 18 m||Show|
50* CHARGERS/RAIDERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Chargers +3)
I'm taking the Chargers and the points on Thursday Night Football. I've had it with this Raiders team. This team was right in the thick of things in the AFC playoff picture and have just not showed up to play. They got absolutely annihilated by the Falcons 43-6 in Week 13, should have lost to the Jets (won 31-28 on last second TD) and got embarrassed at home last week by the Colts 44-27.
The firing of defensive coordinator Paul Guenther should have happened before the season ever started. I don't think doing it in Week 15 is going to do a whole lot. Especially with all the injuries the Raiders are dealing with on that side of the ball. They got at least 4 starters out for this one and it's not like this defense was playing any good when they were at full strength.
Herbert and the Chargers are a difficult team to trust with how they find ways to lose games, but I think some of that is playing into this favorable line. I really think Las Angeles is the more talented team and there's plenty of motivation for them to put an end to the Raiders playoff hopes with a win tonight. Give me the Chargers +3!
|12-14-20||Ravens v. Browns UNDER 46.5||Top||47-42||Loss||-115||8 h 20 m||Show|
50* RAVENS/BROWNS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Under 46.5)
I love the UNDER in tonight's Monday Night Football matchup between AFC North rivals Browns and Ravens. I think we are getting value here with the UNDER after Cleveland's game last week against the Titans, which saw a combined 76 points in the Browns 41-35 win.
I know Baker Mayfield has looked great here of late, but let's not overlook the fact that his last two games have come against two of the worst pass defenses in the league in the Jags and Titans. I mean he was throwing to wide open guys against Tennessee. Baltimore isn't going to give them those easy looks and most importantly the Ravens have the front 7 that can contain the Browns ground game.
The other big thing to note is that these two combined for 44 back in Week 1 with Baltimore scoring 38. With much colder conditions, a lot more tape on each team and winds expected to be blowing at close to 15 mph, I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to score 20 points. Give me the UNDER 46.5!
|12-13-20||Washington Football Team v. 49ers -3||Top||23-15||Loss||-115||29 h 25 m||Show|
50* FBALL TEAM/49ERS ATS PLAY OF THE MONTH (49ers -3)
I absolutely love this spot and price with the 49ers against the Redskins. This is the perfect time to fade Washington off that huge win over the Steelers on Monday. I also think it's the perfect spot to jump on San Francisco after they got embarrassed by the Bills last week.
Not to take anything from Washington's win over Pittsburgh, but you can't overlook the difficult circumstances that the Steelers were in for that game. Pittsburgh was playing that game on 4 days rest, while Washington came into that game on 10 days of rest. The Football Team's 4 other wins besides the upset of the Steelers are against the Eagles, Cowboys (twice) and Bengals.
I know the 49ers are playing in Arizona as their now home, but should be more familiar with this spot having played here last week. It's also the 3rd straight game Washington will be playing away from home. I just feel like SF's defense will be the difference maker in this one. Give me the 49ers -3!
|12-13-20||Colts v. Raiders +3||Top||44-27||Loss||-106||29 h 8 m||Show|
50* COLTS/RAIDERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Raiders +3)
I love the Raiders catching a field goal at home against the Colts. The perception with Las Vegas has dropped dramatically over the last few weeks. People were talking about the Raiders as one of the best teams in the AFC when they nearly upset the Chiefs for a second time in Week 11. Then came a 43-6 los at Atlanta and a miracle 31-28 win at New York.
It's created the perfect buy low spot on Las Vegas this week. Right now the Raiders are sitting on the outside looking in at the playoffs. They are tied for the 8th best record in the AFC with Baltimore at 7-5, but are just 1-game back of the Colts and Dolphins. They can move into a tie with Indy and possibly Miami (play KC).
I also got some big concerns with the Colts in this one. Philip Rivers is not right as he continues to fight through turf toe and Indy is a little banged up on the defensive line. I also think this is a bit of a flat spot for the Colts playing their second straight on the road (decent travel here) and off that huge win over the Texans last week. Give me Las Vegas +3!
|12-10-20||Patriots v. Rams -4.5||Top||3-24||Win||100||10 h 4 m||Show|
50* PATRIOTS/RAMS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Rams -4.5)
I really like the Rams to cover the 4.5-point spread at home against the Patriots. I think a lot of people are taking New England in this game because of the fact that the Pats have won 4 of 5 and are off a 45-0 thrashing of the Chargers. They also remember what Belichick and that Pats defense did to Goff and the Rams offense in the Super Bowl a few years back.
I just don't that I'm buying New England being this vastly improved team all of the sudden. I think the offense has major flaws. While they scored 45 in their last game, they finished that game with fewer than 300 yards of total offense (291). Pats are a run-first team and that plays right into the strength of the Rams defense.
I also think McVay and Rams offense will be better prepared for what Belichick is going to throw at them this time around. I'm not saying they are going to go off for 30+ points or anything like that, but I think if they can get into the mid 20s, they have a great shot of winning by 5+ points. Give me the Rams -4.5!
|12-08-20||Cowboys v. Ravens -7.5||Top||17-34||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
50* COWBOYS/RAVENS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ravens -7.5)
I just think this is the spot to back Baltimore. The Ravens have went from one of the top Super Bowl contenders to a team that is on the outside looking in for a playoff spot in the AFC. With the 3 Wild Card teams (Browns, Dolphins and Colts) all sitting at 8-4 or better, Baltimore absolutely has to have this game. They are every bit in it with a win, which would move them to 7-5. If they fall to 6-6, they are in serious trouble.
I know this team has had quite the deal with Covid, but they are getting a lot of guys back. It's also worth pointing out that while they are playing on just 5 days of rest, this will be just their second game since Nov. 22nd.
I also love the matchup. Dallas can't stop the run and that's the one thing this Ravens team does really well. On the flip side of this, the Cowboys offensive line has been absolutely decimated with injuries. I just don't think they will be able to do much of anything on that side of the ball. Give me the Ravens -7.5!
|12-07-20||Washington Football Team +7 v. Steelers||Top||23-17||Win||100||7 h 9 m||Show|
50* WASHINGTON/PITTSBURGH MNF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Football Team +7)
I like the price we are getting with Washington against the Steelers. It's been pretty hectic for Pittsburgh of late. They had a game scheduled against the Ravens on Thanksgiving that didn't get played until last Wednesday. That was a big division game and it ended up being a lot closer than expected.
Now the Steelers have to find a way to get back up on just 4 days of rest to face a hungry and vastly improved Washington squad. Alex Smith might not be the QB he was, but he's better than what the Football Team had. Washington also has a dominant defensive line that I believe will make it really tough on what I think is a very overrated Steelers offense.
I know Steelers defense has been really strong this season, but they have struggled a bit against the run of late. Washington can definitely take advantage of that and if Smith gets rolling they can win this game outright. Give me the Football Team +7!
|12-06-20||Bengals v. Dolphins -10.5||Top||7-19||Win||100||16 h 9 m||Show|
50* BENGALS/DOLPHINS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Dolphins -10.5)
I was on the wrong end of an ugly Bengals cover last week, as I had the Giants -5.5 and Cincinnati somehow got the cover doing next to nothing on offense the entire game. That's not going to deter me from fading the Bengals again, even at this big number.
There's only a handful of games left and Miami is 1-game back of the Bills for the AFC East lead. I just don't see this team not showing up for this game at home and that's really the only way I see them not covering here. The Dolphins are even better defensively than the Giants and even if it's Tua and not Fitzmagic, Miami's offense is more potent than New York's, especially with them getting back running back Myles Gaskin after he missed the last 4 games.
This Dolphins defense has made a living this year turning turnovers into points. I would be shocked here if they didn't have multiple turnovers in this one. Bengals had 3 last week against the Giants. Give me Miami -10.5!
|11-30-20||Seahawks v. Eagles OVER 48.5||Top||23-17||Loss||-110||9 h 23 m||Show|
50* SEAHAWKS/EAGLES NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 48.5)
I wanted to take Seattle, but I just don't feel like laying a touchdown on the road with this Seahawks team. Seattle has lost each of their last 3 road games, two of which they went off as the favorite.
The good news is, I see a ton of value with the OVER at less than 50. In Seattle's 5 road games 4 have seen a combined score of at least 54 points with 3 going for 63 or more. Only exception was at LA vs the Rams.
It's a combination of how great this Seahawks offense is and how poor the defense has been. There's so much talent across the board with the Seattle offense and I just feel this Eagles defense is better suited to stop the run.
I know Wentz has been awful and there's talk that Hurts is going to get a long look, I think they can get something going here at home against this Seattle defense. Seattle is giving up 30.4 ppg, 450 ypg and 6.5 yards/play on the road this season. Give me the OVER 48.5!
|11-29-20||Raiders v. Falcons OVER 53.5||Top||6-43||Loss||-110||25 h 12 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 53.5)
I love the OVER 53.5 in Sunday's matchup between the Raiders and Falcons. I don't see a great defensive effort here from Las Vegas after that crushing loss the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. With that said, even in normal circumstances I would be high on this Atlanta offense against this Raiders defense.
While I'm not expecting a great effort defensively, I do think Carr and that Raiders offense will come to play and they too will be up against a deflated defense in the Falcons, who couldn't stop Taysom Hill and the Saints last week.
These are really two identical teams. Vegas is scoring 28.6 ppg and giving up 27.6 ppg. Atlanta is scoring 25.2 ppg and allowing 27.5 ppg. I think both teams hit the 30-point mark. Not only do we have ideal conditions with the game indoors, but these non-confernece matchups always seem to be a little higher scoring, as there's just not much familiarity with the two teams.
Speaking to that, OVER is 7-0 last 2 seasons in non-conference games involving the Raiders. OVER is also 33-18 in Atlanta's last 51 after a road loss by 14 or more. Give me the OVER 53.5!
|11-26-20||Washington Football Team +3 v. Cowboys||Top||41-16||Win||100||24 h 58 m||Show|
50* FBALL TEAM/COWBOYS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Football Team +3)
I will gladly take the 3-points with Washington, as they visit the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. The books know everyone is going to be on Dallas in this game, especially after their big win over the Vikings last Sunday. It wreaks of a trap.
What people will overlook with the Cowboys strong showing against the Vikings is that Minnesota's defense is not very good. The biggest thing is the Vikings don't have the talent on the defensive line to exploit a bad Dallas offensive line. That's not the case against the Foortball Team. Washington has one of the best defensive lines in the league.
People also are quick to forget that these two teams played once already and the Football Team won convincingly 25-3 with a 397 to 142 edge in total yards. Andy Dalton was just 9 of 19 for 75 yards in that game and the Washington defense racked up 6 sacks in that contest.
Cowboys defense had no answer for Washington's run game, as they racked up 208 yards on 39 attempts (5.3 yards/carry). Kyle Allen started that game, but only threw for 194 yards, so no reason not to expect the same or better numbers from Alex Smith in the rematch. Give the Football Team +3!
|11-23-20||Rams v. Bucs -4||Top||27-24||Loss||-103||9 h 47 m||Show|
50* RAMS/BUCS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bucs -4)
There's been a lot made of the Bucs struggles in prime time games, but I don't see that being an issue here. Tom Brady knows how to win these big games and I love that he's got a full compliment of weapons at his disposal against the Rams.
I know LA's defense has put up great numbers and just had a great game last week against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, but I'm just not buying into them being as good as their numbers.
Rams have played a pretty easy schedule. They started the season with 4 of their first 5 games against the NFC East. Their other 5 opponents have been the Bills (L), 49ers (L), Bears (W), Dolphins (L) and Seahawks (W).
I also think not enough is being made here of the fact that the Rams won't have left tackle Andrew Witworth. He's one of the best at his position. There's a massive drop off from Witworth and backup Joe Noteboom.
I see that being a big problem against a really strong Tampa Bay defensive front. It's also worth pointing out that LA's offense really needs to be able to run the ball to set up easy throws for Goff. Bucs have one of the best run defenses in the league, as they are allowing just 77 ypg an 3.3 yards/carry vs the run this year. Give me the Bucs -4!
|11-22-20||Packers +1.5 v. Colts||Top||31-34||Loss||-110||26 h 45 m||Show|
50* PACKERS/COLTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Packers +1.5)
I love the value here with Green Bay catching points against the Colts. I know Indianapolis has a great defense, but it's more suited to stop the run than it is the pass. I just think with the Packers recent struggles we are getting them at a great price in a great matchup.
Not only do I love the matchup for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense when they have the ball, but I also think it's a great matchup for the Green Bay defense. The Packers biggest weakness is their run defense and running the ball is far from the strength of this Colts team. Indy is only averaging 3.8 yards/carry and that's against teams who give up on average 4.3 yards/carry.
I also just don't trust Philip Rivers in this spot. As a starter, Rivers is just 11-21 ATS in his last 32 starts at home as a favorite. Green Bay is also a great bet after a game where they failed to cover. Packers are 13-4 ATS last 17 off a ATS loss. Give me Green Bay +1.5!
|11-19-20||Cardinals v. Seahawks -3||Top||21-28||Win||100||82 h 38 m||Show|
50* CARDINALS/SEAHAWKS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY on Seahawks -3
I will gladly lay just a field goal at home with the Seahawks on a short week against a division rival in Arizona. There's a lot to like about Seattle in this spot. For one, everyone is down on this team after back-to-back losses, including an ugly 16-23 loss at the Rams last week. Russell Wilson has went from MVP frontrunner to a guy taking a lot of the blame for the team losing with his costly turnovers.
Factor all that with the fact that Seattle will be out for revenge from a loss to Arizona earlier this season and I just think we are going to get a big time performance out of not just Wilson but this entire team. At the same time, I think Arizona could struggle in this spot. They are coming off a crazy Hail Mary win over the Bills and it could be hard for them to not have a lull after such an emotional high a few days ago.
Seattle is a perfect 6-0 ATS under Pete Carroll in home games off a division loss by 7 points or less and have not just won in this spot, they have dominated by an average score of 31.7 to 16.3 Seahawks are also 16-7 ATS in their last 23 revenging a loss of 7-points or less and 20-10 in their last 30 as a home favorite of 7-points or less. Give me Seattle -3!
|11-16-20||Vikings v. Bears +3.5||Top||19-13||Loss||-116||11 h 44 m||Show|
50* VIKINGS/BEARS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bears +3.5)
Love Chicago as a small home dog on MNF. I was hoping the line would get past 3, as the hook is huge. Bears always seem to be in close games.
That's not saying I think they will need it. I'm going to bet on Chicago's defense and hope we get something from an offense that will have a new look to it.
Let's look at the defense first. Bears have had their way with Minnesota's offense since Cousins came to town. Chicago has swept the season series each of the last two years. All 4 games they held the Vikings offense to 20 or less.
A big reason they succeed against the Vikings, is they have been able to contain Dalvin Cook. In 3 games against the Bears he's totaled just 86 yards on 34 carries, which is a mere 2.5 yards/carry. Cousins just isn't good enough to win the game on his own against an elite secondary like Chicago. Not to mention he's 0-9 in his career as a starter on Monday Night Football.
First things first with the Bears offense, the offensive line is a major concern. There's reason to be optimistic that it can make do in this one. Vikings have one of the worst defensive lines in the league. Chicago is also changing things up with the play calling. Head coach Matt Nagy is giving up the duties to Bill Lazor. They also may get a spark at RB, as Lamar Miller is set to make his debut tonight. Give me the Bears +3.5!
|11-15-20||Bills v. Cardinals -2||Top||30-32||Push||0||74 h 36 m||Show|
50* BILLS/CARDINALS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Cardinals -2)
I will gladly sell high on the Bills after their big win over the Seahawks last week. I just don't trust Josh Allen, especially on the road. Arizona's defense isn't great, but it is a little better at defending the pass than the run, which is great against a Bills team that can't run the ball.
On top of that, the Cardinals are going to be extremely motivated in this spot. Arizona was just upset at home 34-31 by the Dolphins. It's a game that couldn't have set well with the players, as they outgained Miami 442 to 312.
I look for Kyler Murray and that Cardinals offense to have a field day here. Unlike the Seahawks, who couldn't get the run game going against a bad Bills run defense, Arizona will run all over this defense. Cardinals have rushed for 100+ yards in every game. Give me the Cardinals -2!
|11-15-20||Bucs -5.5 v. Panthers||Top||46-23||Win||100||70 h 27 m||Show|
50* BUCS/PANTHERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bucs -5.5)
I couldn't have been more wrong with Tom Brady and the Bucs in last week's game at home against the Saints on Sunday Night Football. It happens. Tampa Bay got punched in the mouth early and just couldn't get back up off the mat.
It can be hard to trust a team that looked that bad in their last game, but I love backing good teams in this spot, especially ones with a top tier quarterback. I fully expect Brady and the Bucs to play one of their best games of the season.
All anyone is talking about is "Teddy Covers", but I just think the Panthers are not the same team without Christian McCaffrey. I just don't think that o-line will be able to hold up against Tampa's pass rush. Give me the Bucs -5.5!
|11-12-20||Colts +121 v. Titans||Top||34-17||Win||121||56 h 19 m||Show|
50* COLTS/TITANS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Colts +121)
I'm going to take the Colts on the money line Thursday night against the Titans. I liked Indianapolis in this matchup when I looked ahead to this game prior to Sunday's games and like it that much more after the books opened Tennessee at less than a FG favorite at home. They are begging the public to take the Titans and so far that's been the case with close to 70% action on Tennessee.
I just don't think the Titans are anywhere close to as good as their 6-2 record. A big reason is their defense. They just aren't as strong on that side of the ball as they were a year ago. Tennessee is giving up 25 ppg and 394 ypg, while also allowing nearly 5.8 yards/play.
The Colts are only giving up 20.0 ppg, 290 ypg and 5.0 yards/play. Even in their loss to the Ravens the defense did their part, holding Lamar Jackson and Baltimore to just 266 total yards. Most impressively holding the league's top ranked rushing attack to just 110 yards on 38 attempts.
I think Indy is going to able to keep Henry in check and if you can do that, it takes away a lot of Tannehill's big plays in play action. On the flip side, I think Philip Rivers and this Colts offense will be able to move the ball and put up points. Give me Indianapolis +121!
|11-08-20||Saints v. Bucs -4||Top||38-3||Loss||-110||34 h 7 m||Show|
50* SAINTS/BUCS NFC SOUTH PLAY OF THE YEAR (Bucs -4)
I love Tom Brady and the Bucs at this price. I don't know how you can bet against Tampa Bay in this spot. How many prime time home games did Brady ever let New England lose, especially in the 2nd half of the season?
Like it or not the Bucs have assembled quite the super team in the NFC and will be debuting Antonio Brown this week. If Brown can just shut up and play football, this could be quite the combo in TB. While it make take a game or two for Brown to get up to speed, keep in mind he does have some built up chemistry with Brown from his brief stint with the Pats last year.
I know New Orleans is getting back their star wide out in Michael Thomas, but I'm just not convinced he's going to fix this offense. Brees just doesn't have the arm strength to threat defenses with the deep pass. I think it could be a recipe for disaster against a Bucs defense that likes to play downhill. We all saw what this defense did when it was locked in against Rodgers and the Packers a few weeks ago.
I simply trust the Bucs offense a lot more to move the ball and put up points in this one. Brady and Tampa Bay get their revenge from an earlier loss at New Orleans (Week 1 and Brady played bad). Give me the Bucs -4!
|11-08-20||Ravens -2 v. Colts||Top||24-10||Win||100||99 h 33 m||Show|
50* RAVENS/COLTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ravens -2)
I absolutely love Baltimore in this spot. Everyone is down on the Ravens right now. This team has went from AFC favorite to many people's third best option behind KC and Pittsburgh. I know some key guys are out, but this is a deep and talented roster. This is the team I want to be backing with their backs against the wall.
I know Lamar Jackson hasn't played well in some of their losses, but let's not overlook the fact that they outgained the Steelers last week 457 to 221. If they don't turn it over 4 times, they win that game going away. Keep in mind Baltimore only had 5 turnovers all season before that game.
No disrespect to the Colts, who I was on last week and have played a lot early on, but I just don't think home field is going to be enough for them to beat the Ravens in this spot. Indy was on the other end of a misleading scoreboard. Not saying Colts shouldn't have won, but they won by 20 despite only outgaining the Lions 366 to 326.
I just don't think Indy as good as their 5-2 record. Their wins are against the Vikings (early on), Jets, Bears, Bengals and Lions. The only one of those teams with a winning record is Chicago, who is 5-3 with all 5 wins decided by 7 or fewer points. Give me the Ravens -2!
|11-01-20||Steelers v. Ravens -3||Top||28-24||Loss||-125||143 h 31 m||Show|
50* STEELERS/RAVENS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ravens -3)
I got no problem paying a little extra to get the Ravens down to -3, as I feel really good about them not losing at that price. To me it feels like when Baltimore got embarrassed at home by the Chiefs on MNF back in Week 3, people started questioning how good this Ravens team.
I think that's a mistake. This team has won 3 straight since that loss. The first two weren't close, as they took out Washington 31-17 on the road and then beat the Bengals 27-3 at home. They did only beat the Eagles by 2, 30-28, but that was a very misleading score. Ravens took their foot off the gas in a game they were in complete control of and it nearly cost them.
Now they are coming out of their bye week and everyone is calling for the Steelers to win this game. Even though Baltimore is the favorite, I think they kind of feel disrespected and are going to treat this more like they are the underdog. I think that makes them a real scary team in this spot.
I like Pittsburgh, but I just don't know if they are as gooda s people think. Their two best wins are against the Titans and Browns. They have also benefited from getting to play 4 of 6 at home. First time all year they will be on the road in back-to-back weeks.
I just feel the Ravens are the better team on both sides of the ball. Give me Baltimore -3!
|10-29-20||Falcons v. Panthers -2.5||Top||25-17||Loss||-117||56 h 9 m||Show|
50* FALCONS/PANTHERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Panthers -2.5)
I'm not sure why Atlanta is getting so much love as a small road dog. How many times can you lose a game in the horrific fashion that they have before the fight is taken out of you. The most recent being Todd Gurley's decision to score a TD when falling down and running out the clock was 100% the play.
There's been audio released from the huddle prior to Gurley's run and you can clearly hear Matt Ryan tell him to get the 1-yard for the first down and go down. Do not score. I know Gurley is one guy, but that's all it takes. One guy puts himself (he's trying to score a TD for his bonus) ahead of the team and others follow.
Carolina just gets no love. Panthers already went into Atlanta and beat the Falcons 23-16. Nothing fluky about that game, as Carolina had a 437 to 373 edge in total yards. Teddy Bridgewater is quietly having another monster season and this Panthers defense is better than people realize.
Also, Falcons offense has been bad more than they have been good here of late. In their last 4 games they have scored 16, 16, 40 and 22. The 40-point outburst was against an awful Vikings defense. Give me the Panthers -2.5!
|10-26-20||Bears v. Rams -5||Top||10-24||Win||100||11 h 12 m||Show|
50* BEARS/RAMS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Rams -5)
I'm laying it with the Rams at home against the Bears on Monday Night Football. The public is all over Chicago at this price, as they see a Bears team off back-to-back upset wins against the Bucs and Panthers, facing off against a Rams team that just lost as a favorite at San Francisco and is just 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games. Public dogs have a way of falling flat on their face, especially in prime time games.
I get the Bears are a team built to win ugly with their defense and the offense is in better hands with Nick Foles under center. I just don't think this team is as good as their 5-1 record. Clearly the oddsmakers agree or this line would be much closer to LA -3.
You definitely have to look at the Rams loss to the 49ers in a different way after what we saw on Sunday with San Fran going into New England and beating a desperate Pats team 33-6. The 49ers are playing out of their minds with the injuries they have been dealt.
I just wonder if the Rams didn't give them their full attention in that game. Note that the 49ers came into that contest fresh off a 43-17 loss at home to the Dolphins.
While it's struggled in spurts, I like what this Rams offense has been able to do. They are averaging 6.2 yards/play against teams that only allow 5.7 yards/play. Bears only average 5.0 yards/play vs teams allowing 5.7. Rams defense only giving up 5.2 yards/play, which is better than the 5.4 mark for Chicago. Give me the Rams -5!
|10-25-20||49ers v. Patriots -2.5||Top||33-6||Loss||-110||124 h 30 m||Show|
50* 49ERS/PATS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Patriots -2.5)
I think this is an ideal spot to buy low on the Patriots off a shocking upset loss at home to the Broncos and a great to sell high on the 49ers after an upset win at home over the Rams on Sunday Night Football. The big thing you have to keep in mind with the loss to Denver is the Patriots really didn’t get to practice for that game because of Covid. New England is set to practice today and it will be just their 3rd full practice in the month of October.
I think we are going to see a huge bounce back game for the Patriots on Sunday and a big reason for that is I’m just not buying into this 49ers team being as good as people think. No one was really giving San Fran a shot against the Rams, but I actually like the 49ers in that game. A big reason for that is I didn’t think LA was all that great.
The Rams were 4-1, but those 4 wins were against the 4 NFC East teams. They did lose by just 3 at Buffalo, but they also trailed 28-3 in the 2nd half of that game. I also thought it was concerning that the Rams only scored 20 points against that awful Cowboys defense in Week 1. They also had just 17 points and 240 yards against a bad Giants team.
Outside if that win, the 49ers only other victories this season are against the Jets and Giants. They lost to a depleted Eagles team at home and two weeks ago were absolutely destroyed at home 43-17 by the Dolphins.
When I gave out NE on the podcast back in Week 3 against the Raiders, I noted how Belichick was not going to let Las Vegas star tight end Darren Waller beat them. Coming into that game Waller had caught 18 passes for 150 yards. He was a complete non-factor, catching just 2 passes for 9 yards. They are going to do the exact same thing with 49ers tight end George Kittle in this one.
I also think it’s worth noting that no one knows San Fran quarterback Jimmy G better than Belichick. He’s going to gear up his defense to not only stop Kittle, but also play to the weaknesses of Garoppolo. Give me the Patriots -2.5!
|10-25-20||Bucs -3 v. Raiders||Top||45-20||Win||100||90 h 55 m||Show|
50* BUCS/RAIDERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bucs -3)
I loved Tampa Bay at -3 when this line opened. I just think this Bucs team is only getting better and last week's demolition of Rodgers and the Packers certainly suggest that. There's been some Covid issues for Oakland and the line is now -5 at most books. I still love the Bucs at that price.
I think the Raiders are a fraud right now with a winning record of 3-2. Last time we saw this team in Week 5, they upset the Chiefs 40-32 in KC as a 10-point dog. The defense was torched once again and I just think the offense caught that Chiefs defense in the perfect spot. KC's D was due for a letdown after their early schedule.
Say what you want about Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay offense, but this defense is the real deal. The talk after that game against Rodgers and the Packers was not about how good they were, but how they needed to prove it in their game this week against the Raiders.
I just think Tampa Bay is going to win here and win rather convincingly. Play the Bucs -3!
|10-22-20||Giants v. Eagles -4.5||Top||21-22||Loss||-105||10 h 23 m||Show|
50* GIANTS/EAGLES NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Eagles -4.5)
I know the Eagles are going to be a very public play, but I just can't find a legit reason to take the Giants in this matchup. I know the numbers aren't great for Carson Wentz, who has a 8-9 TD-INT ratio, but a lot of that is he's being forced to put this team on his back with all the injuries they have had on the offensive side of the ball.
Losing RB Miles Sanders and TE Zach Ertz doesn't look good, but they are getting back WR DeSean Jackson and LT Lane Johnson. I actually think the injuries to Sanders and Ertz have created some value.
More than anything this about who they are playing. The Giants defense is not great.
Last week against a Washington team that ranked 30th in OFF DVOA and by some metrics were the worst passing offense in the NFL, they let Kyle Allen complete 31 of 42 attempts for 280 yards and 2 scores. That was with next to nothing from the running game (86 yards on 24 attempts). To me the "Football Team" is a poor man's version of this current Eagles offense.
Somehow the Giants won that game, despite getting outgained by almost 100 yards (337 to 240).
On the flip side of things, I question how this Daniel Jones led Giants offense will be able to move the ball. The fact that Jones is New York's leading rusher on the season with 204 yards says all you need to know about their offensive line.
The Eagles still have one of the better defensive lines in the game, they are 4th in the NFL with 21 sacks and also 4th in adjusted sack rate, which factors in the number of sacks based on how often the QB drops back to pass.
You also have to like the fact that the Eagles have played 5 times on TNF since Doug Pederson took over as head coach. Not only have they won all 5, but they are 5-0 ATS with an average margin of victory of 9.3 points/game. Give me Philadelphia -4.5!
|10-19-20||Chiefs -5 v. Bills||Top||26-17||Win||100||8 h 47 m||Show|
50* CHIEFS/BILLS MNF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Chiefs -5)
I really like the Chiefs in this spot. Last week's loss to the Raiders didn't surprise me. That just felt like a game to me that KC was going to struggle to get up for. Chiefs had just played two massive games against the Ravens and Patriots, which they felt like they had to have to get the No. 1 seed. Getting that No. 1 seed is huge, as that's the only team that gets a bye in the playoffs now.
I expect to see the Chiefs 100% locked in here against Buffalo, who is another one of those teams that are a contender for that No. 1 seed. I think we see that same team that owned the Ravens on MNF a couple weeks back.
I'm confident Mahomes and the Chiefs offense is going to move the ball against this Bills defense. Buffalo has really struggled on that side.As for KC's defense, I think they are going to bounce back in a big way here. This is a defense that got better and better as last year went on and prior to giving up 40 to the Raiders they had held their first 4 opponents to 20 or less. Josh Allen is the kind of QB they typically play well. Give me the Chiefs -5!
|10-18-20||Bears v. Panthers -112||Top||23-16||Loss||-112||44 h 16 m||Show|
50* BEARS/PANTHERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Panthers -112)
I love Carolina this week at basically a pick'em at home against one of the most overrated teams in the NFL in the Bears. I say that about Chicago, after I cashed with them on MNF vs Tom Brady and the Bucs.
I did have some high hopes for the Bears when Foles replaced Trubisky, but we have not seen Foles look anything close to that 2nd half against Atlanta in his two starts since. Bears put up just 269 total yards against the Colts and 243 vs the Bucs.
Carolina came into this season with the perception that they were going to be awful defensively. That looked to be true after they gave up 34 to the Raiders in Week 1 and 31 to the Bucks in Week 2. However, in their last 3 games they have held the Chargers to 16, Cardinals to 21 and the Falcons to 16.
Panthers are quietly 5th in the NFL against the pass, allowing just 223.0 yards/game. They are bottom 10 against the run (133.4 ypg), but Chicago doesn't have a great rushing attack or passing game. Bears rank bottom 10 in both categories.
I also think people are assuming this Bears defense will make life miserable for this Panthers offense. I don't think that will be the case at all. Joe Brady and Teddy Bridgewater are clicking together. Panthers are 5th in the NFL in passing (281.8 ypg). Also, no Christian McCaffrey the last 3 games. Mike Davis has been way better than expected, easing that loss. Give me the Panthers -112!
|10-13-20||Bills -3.5 v. Titans||Top||16-42||Loss||-100||9 h 32 m||Show|
50* BILLS/TITANS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bills -3.5)
Even though I'm confident the Bills will cover, I would strongly recommend buying this down to Buffalo -3 (not an option when submitting picks). There's just too many factors in favor of Buffalo to not play them at this price.
The Titans come into this game 3-0, but I've not been that impressed with this team. They could just as easily be 0-3. All 3 wins have come by 3-points or less.
Tennessee has had little to no practice time for this game, as their facility has been shutdown. They also got several key guys out because of Covid. They are extremely thin at WR and while A.J. Brown is expected back from injury, he might not be 100%.
The biggest thing for me is I don't see the Titans defense being able to contain Josh Allen and this Bills offense. Tennessee ranks 23rd against the pass (256.3 ypg) and 31st against the run (166.0 ypg).
Titans do have two really good edge rushers in Clowney and Landry III, but they figure to be negated in this one, as Buffalo has two quality tackles in Dawkins and Williams. Give me the Bills -3.5!
|10-12-20||Chargers +7.5 v. Saints||Top||27-30||Win||100||155 h 53 m||Show|
50* CHARGERS/SAINTS *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Chargers +7.5)
I love the Chargers at this price. I don't think it's out of the question that they leave New Orleans with a win. This Saints team has not looked anything like the Super Bowl contender everyone was claiming before the season started.
I just think a lot of people are holding on to what Brees and this team has done in the past on MNF. I could maybe see it if Michael Thomas was playing, but he's not and shockingly it's not because he's still injured. Thomas got in a fight with a teammate during a weekend practice and is being suspended by the team.
Chargers run a similar defense to the Falcons, which has given the Saints offense trouble. We have seen this defense disrupt things for Patrick Mahomes and had Brady in the Bucs down big early. I could definitely see them making life tough on this dink and dunk offense that NO runs.
All of this and I haven't mentioned the talented rookie QB the Chargers have in Herbert. I really think LA struck gold with this kid. Anthony Lynn is now the only thing holding this team back. I think Herbert will have success in this game. New Orleans is giving up 30.8 ppg. Give me the Chargers +7.5!
|10-11-20||Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 56.5||Top||40-32||Win||100||119 h 15 m||Show|
50* RAIDERS/CHIEFS AFC WEST PLAY OF THE MONTH (Over 56.5)
I know the history of these two teams has seen a lot of UNDERS, but I absolutely love the OVER in this matchup. Patrick Mahomes and that Kansas City offense really struggled last week against the Patriots. They played about as poorly as we have seen them since Mahomes became the starter.
The special players like Mahomes, always seem to bounce back from a bad game with one of their best. A motivated Mahomes should spell disaster for this Raiders defense. Oakland's giving up 30 ppg. They rank in the bottom half of the league against both the run and the pass. Last year Mahomes scored 28 in a quarter against this defense in the first matchup and KC put up 40 in the next meeting.
Key here is I expect Oakland to make a game of it. There's no question this Chiefs defense is better than they get credit for, but I just wonder if they aren't primed for a bit of a letdown here. They were clearly excited to play Week 1 against the Texans, then they had to carry them in a win at LA, after that it was Lamar and the Ravens and Belichick and the Pats.
Even though the Raiders are a big rival, it's not as big when the teams aren't on the same level in talent. Not to mention they got a HUGE game on deck at Buffalo next week. Bills are clearly one of the top teams in the AFC and only one team gets that first round bye this year. That's a massive tie-breaker game for the No. 1 seed. Give me the OVER 57!
|10-05-20||Patriots v. Chiefs OVER 49||Top||10-26||Loss||-110||10 h 49 m||Show|
50* PATS/CHIEFS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 49)
I was on the OVER in this game before it got postponed and moved to tonight. I still think it's the play. Yes, I know Cam Newton isn't playing for the Patriots and he's been great in the first 3 games. I just don't think it's going to impact the scoring as much as some might think.
In fact, it could be a positive. With Cam there's a lot more QB runs, which would have allowed NE to try to eat up more clock and limit the number of times Mahomes got the ball. I also think this Chiefs defense is built for guys like Cam and Lamar. They can really make life miserable for a QB that wants to use his legs and really isn't a precision passer.
All indications are that Hoyer will be the starter over Stidham. I like that, but still would like the over if they switched last second.
As for the Chiefs, I think we finally saw their offense resemble what we thought it should look like in last week's complete beatdown against the Ravens. They put up 34 points on a great Baltimore defense and left plenty of points out there. Note Baltimore has allowed 39 points in their 3 other games.
Belichick is a great defensive mind, but Mahomes has now seen this NE defense enough to know what to expect. Thing is Pats can get away with just his coaching against most teams, but the overall talent level is not great on that side of the ball. We saw Russell Wilson go 21 of 28 for 288 and 5 TDs against this defense a couple weeks ago. Mahomes might throw for 5 TDs, but should put up at least similar numbers. Give me the OVER 49!
|10-04-20||Eagles +7.5 v. 49ers||Top||25-20||Win||100||54 h 54 m||Show|
50* EAGLES/49ERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Eagles +7.5)
It's only been 3 weeks into the season and everyone can't stop talking about how bad the Eagles are playing, especially starting QB Carson Wentz. It hasn't been good, but I'm willing to give this team a shot here at this price.
Not only do I think this is a good time to buy low on Philadelphia, but I also feel like this is the perfect spot to sell high on the 49ers. San Francisco has been absolutely decimated by injuries. There's too many to list, but it's a lot and it's a lot of their best players.
The thing is, the 49ers come into this game off two dominant wins despite all those injuries. They crushed the Jets 31-13 on the road and then beat the Giants 36-9. I get those are some lopsided scores, but the Jets and the Giants are awful. I personally think they are in a class by their own at the bottom.
Simply put, I don't think there's a team in the league that wouldn't be overvalued after playing those two teams in consecutive weeks. Add in the 49ers being a very public team off their Super Bowl run, I believe this has been inflated even more. It would not surprise me at all if the Eagles won this game. Give me Philadelphia +7.5!
|10-04-20||Cardinals -3.5 v. Panthers||Top||21-31||Loss||-100||141 h 38 m||Show|
50* CARDINALS/PANTHERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Cardinals -3.5)
After last week's upset loss at home to the Lions, I feel like this is the perfect time to jump on the Cardinals as a slim road favorite against the Panthers. Arizona definitely did themselves no favors with 3 turnovers (-3 turnover margin). I think some of that was just a lack of focus from them being 2-0 and feeling like they were just going to walk all over an 0-2 Lions team.
Arizona's offense still put up a solid 377 yards and had 28 first downs. Kyler Murray wasn't nearly as effective on the ground and all 3 turnovers were interceptions he threw. I really like this kid and I think he bounces back in a big way.
It certainly helps matters that he's facing an awful Panthers defense. Carolina is bottom half of the league against both the run and the pass. We have seen them give up 34 to the Raiders and 31 to the Bucs. They did hold the Chargers to just 16 last week, but that's very misleading. LA had 436 yards of total offense, with rookie Justin Herbert throwing for more than 300 yards.
Add in the fact that the Panthers don't have McCaffrey and they are really left no choice but to pass. Less running means less time of possession and more possessions for the Arizona offense. I really don't think this will be close. Give me the Cardinals -3.5!
|10-01-20||Broncos -3 v. Jets||Top||37-28||Win||105||76 h 23 m||Show|
50* BRONCOS/JETS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Broncos -3)
I spent a lot of time handicapping this game and as much as I wanted to take the Jets as a home dog, I just can't do it. New York is awful. I really think they are going to lose big again and there's a good chance they fire Gase after this game.
With scoring way up this year, the Jets are as bad a offensive team as I can remember. They have scored 37 points in 3 games (12.3 ppg). Last week their offense scored 7 points and gave up 16 (two pick sixes and a safety). New York has not held a lead at any point this season.
Darnold has not played well, but it's not all his fault. The talent that has been put around him is a joke. Thing could get worse. Jets stud rookie left tackle Mekhi Becton is likely not going to play with a shoulder injury. Note their swing tackle Chuma Edoga is already filling in at right tackle for the injure George Fant.
I'm not going to sit here an endorse the Broncos, because there's a lot of problems with this team. More than anything injuries have ravaged this team. I know they weren't all that competitive last week against Tampa Bay, but they had a shot at winning Week 1 against the Titans (lost 14-16) and Week 2 at Pittsburgh (lost 21-26). I just think they are the better coached and more talented team. Give me the Broncos -3!
*This line has moved quite a bit since Denver announced that Rypien is going to start. When I handicapped this game I assumed there was a chance he would play. I think we are seeing a big overreaction with the line move. It doesn't change how I feel about this play.
|09-28-20||Chiefs v. Ravens -3||Top||34-20||Loss||-124||148 h 10 m||Show|
50* CHIEFS/RAVENS MNF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ravens -3)
|09-27-20||Packers v. Saints -3||Top||37-30||Loss||-110||51 h 15 m||Show|
50* PACKERS/SAINTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Saints -3)
This is a no-brainer if you ask me. All we are hearing right now is how washed up Drew Brees is (only time a guy throws for 300+ in a game and is getting dogged). I can't imagine how jacked up the Saints are to get on the field for this game. I got good feeling here that Brees is going to quiet some of those critics in this one.
What people overlook with the Saints 24-34 loss to the Raiders is they beat themselves. New Orleans put up 424 yards and averaged a ridiculous 7.3 yards/play. It looked like it was JV vs varsity early on. Penalties killed a lot of Saints drives.
Let's also not overlook the fact that New Orleans is just not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. With Payton as head coach, Saints are 28-13 ATS last 41 off a road loss.
As for the Packers, people are firmly on the Green Bay bandwagon after they have opened up 2-0 with a 43-34 win over the Vikings and 42-21 victory against Detroit. I just don't think either of those teams are any good, especially on the defensive side.
Big loss here for Rodgers and the Packers offense with wideout Davante Adams doubtful to play. Green Bay has also been running the ball with a ton of success (had 259 on the ground vs Lions). New Orleans is only giving up 3.3 yards/carry. I just think GB has trouble keeping pace with the Saints. Give me New Orleans -3!
|09-27-20||Raiders v. Patriots -5||Top||20-36||Win||100||44 h 6 m||Show|
50* RAIDERS/PATRIOTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Patriots -5)
I love the value here with New England at -5. I've been pretty spot on with the Patriots early on. I cashed on them -6.5 in Week 1 against the Dolphins then won easily on the the Pats/Seahawks O44.5 in Week 2. I really think this team is better than they are getting credit for. This is one of the best teams in the AFC.
The Raiders are getting a ton of love for their 34-24 win over the Saints on MNF in Week 2 (I was on Oakland +6), but I just don't think they are as good as what people think. The defense gave up 7.4 yards/play against New Orleans. Penalties really killed the Saints (10 for 129). NE is a disciplined team under Belichick, so that edge won't be there in this one.
This is also an awful spot for Oakland. Raiders are on short rest after playing on MNF. They also are having to travel across the country for an early game, which is never easy for the west coast teams. Give me the Patriots -5!
|09-24-20||Dolphins v. Jaguars OVER 47.5||Top||31-13||Loss||-110||54 h 42 m||Show|
50* DOLPHINS/JAGUARS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 47.5)
I don't want anything to do with the side in this game. I know we didn't get the best number, but I still love the OVER 47.5. I'm a big OVER guy in these Thursday games on short rest, especially early in the season. Add in how much more scoring we are getting in 2020 because of the shorten offseason and no fans and these two should hit 50 with ease.
Keep in mind everyone was calling for the UNDER last Thursday between the Browns and Bengals and that thing went flying past the total. As bad as these teams are, Fitzpatrick and Minshew are two guys that can sling it. They will both be up against an awful pass defense. Give me the OVER 47.5!
|09-20-20||Patriots v. Seahawks OVER 44.5||Top||30-35||Win||100||51 h 56 m||Show|
50* PATRIOTS/SEAHAWKS *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 44.5)
I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the total in this one. I got nothing but respect for Bill Belichick and his ability to coach. He's going to get the most out of what he can. It's why one of my biggest plays in Week 1 was on the Pats -6.5 at Miami.
I'm not saying Russell Wilson is going to shred this NE defense, but I do think Seattle will be able to move the chains early and often. I know Atlanta is not a top tier defensive team, but putting up 38 on the road in Week 1 against a team like that is saying something.
The other big thing that I think might be getting overlooked is we saw Seattle throw the ball a lot more on early downs. Something so many have been begging them to do for years. It puts the ball in Wilson's hands more and that's huge. I don't think they do that in Week 1 and just go back to pounding the rock in Week 2.
On the flip side of all this is Cam Newton. Everything so far has been positive with Newton and I thought he played really well in Week 1. He was an efficient 15 of 19 passing (no interceptions). He also showed he's willing to run (75 yards on 15 attempts), which is how he won the MVP a few years ago.
Seattle's defense isn't what it once was. They gave up over 500 yards to the Falcons in Week 1. Atlanta had 3 different players catch 9 passes and all 3 had over 110 yards. I think Newton shows out in Prime Time and this thing turns into a bit of a shootout. Give me the OVER 44.5!
|09-20-20||Washington Football Team v. Cardinals -6.5||Top||15-30||Win||100||99 h 7 m||Show|
50* NFC *MAX BET* PLAY OF THE MONTH (Cardinals -6.5)
I’m a huge Kyler Murray fan. He was the reason I was on Arizona over their win total last year. There’s been nothing but positive things said about this kid since he got into the league. He was absolutely sensational in last week’s win against the 49ers, completing 65% of his attempts for 230 yards and rushing for another 91 yards on 13 attempts.
He’s going to have to run less as he gets older if he wants to do this for a long time, but for now it makes him and this Arizona offense extremely difficult to guard, especially now that he has one of the best receivers in the league to throw to in DeAndre Hopkins.
I just see Murray and the Cardinals offense doing as they please in this one. I know Washington’s run defense held the Eagles in check, but Philly was without their top back in Miles Sanders. Eagles were also without top wideout Alshon Jeffery and two multiple pro bowl offensive linemen in right tackle Lane Johnson and right guard Brandon Brooks.
I also think this Washington offense is going to end up being one of the worst in the league. I’m sorry but Dwayne Haskins is not an NFL quarterback. He went 17 of 31 for 178 yards in their win. They also don’t got anything that excites me at the skill positions. Arizona’s defense isn’t great, but this is a much easier task than what they just faced in the 49ers. Give me the 49ers -6.5
|09-17-20||Bengals v. Browns OVER 43.5||Top||30-35||Win||100||31 h 8 m||Show|
50* BENGALS/BROWNS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 43.5)
If you have been following my NFL for awhile, you know that I'm pretty big on the OVER in these Thursday night games. People just haven't caught on to how much the lack of rest impacts the play on the defensive side of the ball.
Factor in how bad the Browns and Bengals looked offensively in Week 1 and I think we are getting big time value with the total at 43.5. I know Cleveland has Garrett, but the Browns defense is no where near as good as the front Cincinnati last faced in the Chargers. Burrow also flashed some in that game and you have to like a guy that makes plays when it matters late.
As for the Browns poor showing, they just went up against a really good Baltimore defense. Cleveland was able to run on the Ravens and should move the chains on the ground against a Bengals defense that won't have their best guy up front in Geno Atkins. Cleveland also has a bunch of guys hurt on defense. Play the OVER 43.5!
|09-14-20||Steelers v. Giants UNDER 45||Top||26-16||Win||100||8 h 23 m||Show|
50* STEELERS/GIANTS MNF MASSACRE (Under 45)
I really like the UNDER 45 in the early Monday Night Football matchup between the Steelers and Giants.
We know the Steelers defense is going to be good. It carried them last year and just felt like it kept getting better. They were outstanding against the run and should be again. They tied with NE allowing a league-low 7 rushing touchdowns. I think they can take away Barkley and I don't see Daniel Jones having a big day behind an offensive line that has 3 new starters.
As for the Steelers offense, there's a lot of optimism with the return of Big Ben. I just don't think he's going to be sharp in his first game back. I certainly don't think they are going to be looking to air it out.
I also think people could be sleeping some on the Giants defense. Most just remember how bad it was last year. They added 3 big pieces, including corner James Bradberry and defensive back Logan Ryan. Give me the UNDER 45!
|09-13-20||Packers +2.5 v. Vikings||Top||43-34||Win||100||48 h 29 m||Show|
50* PACKERS/VIKINGS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Packers +2.5)
I love the Packers and the points. Green Bay will be opening up on the road against division rival Minnesota, who is simply not the same team as they were a year ago. Vikings lost one of their best playmakers in Stefon Diggs, which definitely hurts Kirk Cousins and the offense.
Minnesota also lost a lot on the defensive side of the ball. The got 3 new starting corners and have just 5 starters back on that side of the ball. That lack of chemistry, especially in the secondary figures to be a recipe for disaster against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense.
I just think given how bad Green Bay lost in the NFC Championship Game last year, people are sleeping on this team coming into 2020. If you are a believer in teams with continuity having an edge in this pandemic stricken offseason, Green Bay is the obvious play in this one. Give me the Packers +2.5!
|02-02-20||49ers v. Chiefs -120||Top||20-31||Win||100||52 h 5 m||Show|
50* NFL CHIEFS/49ERS SB 54 SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chiefs -120)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Kansas City in Super Bowl 54 against the 49ers. I just think the Chiefs are too good offensively and are a lot better defensively than they get credit for. KC's defense has been one of the best in the league over the second half of the season and I just don't know that you can beat them running the football.
As for the 49ers and that great defensive front, it's as big a factor against a QB like Mahomes. Not only can Mahomes can it out quick, but he's extremely mobile with an incredible sense of pressure. Not to mention all the speed Mahomes has at his disposal.
I also think it's a huge advantage for KC given the SB is played with a bye, as there's arguably not been a better coach outside of maybe Belichick in terms of what he can do with an extra week to prepare.
Another thing for me is the 49ers are pretty set in their zone defense and I just think you can't run zone against Mahomes and this offense. We saw it last year with the same 49ers defensive scheme in their Week 3 matchup. Chiefs scored a TD on their first 5 possessions of the game and had a 35-10 lead at the half. Once Mahomes and Reid know what the defense is trying to do, there's really no stopping them. Give me the Chiefs -120!
|01-19-20||Titans v. Chiefs -7||Top||24-35||Win||100||7 h 13 m||Show|
50* AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -7)
I'll take my chances here with the Chiefs covering the 7-point spread at home against the Titans. It's crazy to me how the public has fallen in love with this Tennessee team. Wins at New England and Baltimore are impressive, but the Chiefs are a whole different animal and this team is coming off a magical win last week where they turned a 24-0 deficit in the 1st quarter into a 28-24 lead at the half and won by 20.
I get the Titans beat the Chiefs at home earlier this season, but KC had a 29-20 lead in that game in the 4th quarter and were up 8 with less than a minute to play. Chiefs had a 530 to 371 edge in total yards, 28 to 19 edge in first downs and Mahomes threw for 446 yards and 3 scores in his first game back from that dislocated knee (didn't have near the mobility he does right now).
Derrick Henry rushed for 188 yards and 2 scores and they should have lost, so even if he has a big day I think KC still wins this going away. The Chiefs defense has really transformed into a top tier unit and keep in mind that while they gave up 31 to the Texans last week, Houston scored a TD on a block punt and were gift-wrapped another on a muffed punt that set them up with 1st and Goal at the 6-yard line.
I also think Titans have to be running out of gas. They not only have won both of their playoff games on the road, but they also closed out the season at Houston in a must-win to even get into the playoffs. Winning 3 straight games on the road is tough, 4 in a row in 4 weeks is as difficult as it gets. Give me the Chiefs -7!
|01-12-20||Texans v. Chiefs -9.5||Top||31-51||Win||100||48 h 58 m||Show|
50* NFL CHIEFS/TEXANS DIV ROUND TOP PLAY (Chiefs -9.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Chiefs laying it on the Texans and winning this game by at least double-digits. Houston pulled out a miraculous overtime win over the Bills, as they were down 16-0 in the 2nd half and found a way to win. That's just Buffalo's inability to put teams away with their anemic offense.
I know Houston was able to go on the road and upset the Chiefs 31-24 in the regular-season, but things just kind of unraveled for KC, as they actually jumped out to a 17-3 lead in the 1st quarter. The Chiefs defense just wasn't very good in that game and at that time they just weren't very good on that side of the ball. This defense is drastically better now than it was.
The other big thing is the two weeks that the Chiefs get to prepare for this game. Few have been better than Andy Reid when getting two weeks to prepare for a team. He's 18-3 ATS in the regular season off a bye and 4-1 ATS in the playoffs. If you remember last year the Colts had a big Wild Card win at Houston (21-7) and then lost 31-13 at KC the next week.
Simply put the Chiefs have the better head coach (not even close), the better quarterback and a massive home field advantage. Give me Kansas City -9.5!
|01-11-20||Vikings v. 49ers -7||Top||10-27||Win||100||26 h 31 m||Show|
50* NFL VIKINGS/49ERS DIV ROUND TOP PLAY (49ers -7)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the 49ers winning by more than a touchdown at home against the Vikings. Hats off to Minnesota for their win at New Orleans last week, but no way do I trust the Vikings to pull off the upset here and I would be shocked if they kept this close.
I just think the 49ers are hands down the better team and few teams needed that bye week more than San Francisco. The defense will be as healthy as it's been all in a long time with linebacker Kwon Alexander and safety Jaquiski Tartt back in the lineup. There's also a good chance Dee Ford will be able to get on the field in some capacity.
I just think when they are right it's near impossible to pass against them and I just don't think the Vikings run game is strong enough to carry the load. One win in a big game doesn't do it for me when it comes to trusting Kirk Cousins in a spot like this. I think their inability to move the ball is going allow the 49ers offense to wear the Vikings defense down and create the separation needed to cover this number. Give me the 49ers -7!
|01-05-20||Vikings v. Saints UNDER 50.5||Top||26-20||Win||100||3 h 17 m||Show|
50* VIKINGS/SAINTS NFL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 50.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 50.5 in the big NFC Wild Card matchup between the Saints and Vikings. I get the Saints come into this game on an offensive tear, as they scored 34 or more in each of their last 4 games, but I just don't see them matching that success against a really good Vikings defense. At the same time, I don't think Minnesota's offense is going to have much success here and I actually think they are going to focus a lot more on running the ball to not only keep their defense fresh, but to keep Drew Brees off the field. Give me the UNDER 50.5!
|01-04-20||Titans v. Patriots UNDER 44.5||Top||20-13||Win||100||11 h 22 m||Show|
50* NFL PATS/TITANS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 44.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 44.5 between the Titans and Patriots. I'm not anticipating this one being all that entertaining, as I think both offenses are going to have a miserable time moving the ball. Pats offense is broken and the Titans offense isn't good enough to exploit an elite NE defense on the road. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to reach 20 points in this one. UNDER is 16-5 in Pats last 21 games off a loss. Give me the UNDER 44.5!
|12-29-19||Cardinals +7.5 v. Rams||Top||24-31||Win||100||50 h 46 m||Show|
50* NFC WEST PLAY OF THE YEAR (Cardinals +7.5)
I love the value here with the Cardinals at +7.5 and would be taking them at anything over a field goal. Rams are not going to be the least bit interested in playing this game after last week crushing loss to the 49ers that ended any hopes they had of sneaking into the playoffs. Hard for a team that was in the Super Bowl a year ago to get up for a meaningless Week 17 game. Cardinals on the other hand have shown they want to finish the season strong and even if Murray can't go I like them to win this game outright. Give me Arizona +7.5!
|12-23-19||Packers v. Vikings -4.5||Top||23-10||Loss||-110||10 h 14 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Vikings -4.5)
I'll take my chances here with Minnesota covering the 4.5-point spread at home against the Packers. Green Bay might have Aaron Rodgers and one of the best records in the NFC, but I just don't think they are anywhere close to as good as people think. The books definitely seem to agree with this line being 4.5 with Minnesota likely down their top two packs.
Green Bay really isn't good on either side of the ball. Packers are 22nd in total offense at 336.6 ypg and rank in the bottom half of the league in both rushing and passing. Green Bay's defense comes in having held each of their last 3 opponents to 15 or fewer, but that's come against the Giants/ Redskins and Bears. Packers are 23rd against the pass and 25th against the run.
Vikings are 32-15 ATS at home under Zimmer and 22-8 ATS in their last 30 as a home favorite of 7 or less. Give me Minnesota -4.5!
|12-22-19||Chiefs -6 v. Bears||Top||26-3||Win||100||12 h 51 m||Show|
50* CHIEFS/BEARS SNF PLAY OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -6)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Chiefs winning by at least a touchdown on the road against the Bears. Kansas City needs to win here to keep their hopes of getting a first round bye alive and I also feel like the Chiefs want to keep the momentum going into the playoffs.
You also got KC head coach Andy Reid facing off against former assistant Matt Nagy and I think not only that gives the Chiefs an edge, but also adds a little more incentive. The Bears are also sitting at 7-7 and out of the playoff race, so it wouldn't come as a shocker for them to not play up to their potential.
More than anything, I just don't see Chicago being able to keep pace offensively with Mahomes and this high-powered KC offense. Not to mention the Chiefs defense has made a remarkable turnaround not only from last year but from the first month of the season. KC's stop unit has been one of the best in the league over the last 4 weeks and should have no problem keeping Trubisky and the Bears in check. Give me the Chiefs -6!
|12-16-19||Colts v. Saints OVER 46.5||Top||7-34||Loss||-110||11 h 20 m||Show|
50* COLTS/SAINTS MNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 46.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 46.5 between the Colts/Saints on Monday Night Football. New Orleans is rolling on the offensive side of the ball. While it was in a losing effort, the Saints put up 46 points and nearly 500 yards of offense against the 49ers last Sunday. They are now averaging 35.0 ppg in their last 4. They will be facing a Colts defense that has allowed 38 to the Bucs and 31 to the Titans in their last 2. Most recently they let Jameis Winston threw for 467 yards against them.
As for the Colts offense, they should be able to hold their own in this game. New Orleans is not playing at the same level defensively as they did early in the year and they just suffered to massive injuries on that side of the ball, losing both Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport to season-ending injuries. I think we could see these two eclipse this total by the 3rd quarter. Give me the OVER 46.5!
|12-15-19||Broncos v. Chiefs OVER 46||Top||3-23||Loss||-109||115 h 8 m||Show|
50* NFL AFC WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 46)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 46 in Sunday's AFC West matchup between the Broncos and Chiefs. I'm well aware that it's going to be snowing in KC before during and after the game. The betting public sees this and instantly wants to take the UNDER, but in reality the snow actually helps the offenses, as it's much harder to react on defense, as well as generate a pass rush. The biggest thing weather wise that hurts offense is wind and it's not suppose to be that windy.
I just think this KC offense is ready to explode after being bottled up last week against the Patriots. With that said there's no shame in scoring 23 points on that NE defense, especially on the road and the Chiefs should have had a lot more.
There's no question the KC defense has improved with each passing week, but it's far from elite and worse defenses have had success against Brady and the Pats here of late. I know they held the Broncos to just 6-points in the first meeting, but that was with Joe Flacco at quarterback. Drew Lock is a big upgrade over Flacco and he's going to generate some big plays. He's also likely to make a couple mistakes, which should lead to some quick scores for Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. Give me the OVER 46!
|12-09-19||Giants v. Eagles -9||Top||17-23||Loss||-110||10 h 2 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Eagles -9)
I'll take my chances here with Philadelphia winning by double-digits at home against the Giants on Monday Night Football. I know the Eagles are a big favorite here, but after last week's loss to the Dolphins dropped them to 5-7, Philadelphia's backs are firmly against the wall and it just seems like whenever the Eagles are in this spot they deliver in a big way. I think a lot of people are expecting Eli Manning to come out and play well after not suiting up the last 11 weeks and I just don't think that's going to be the case. I'm in the belief the Eagles didn't give the Dolphins the respect they deserved and that defense will respond in a big way. Note that in the previous 4 games Philadelphia had allowed 17 or fewer points and in their last home game held Russell Wilson to 174 passing yards on 13 of 25 attempts. The other big thing here is the Giants defense. New York is giving up 30.8 ppg and 404 ypg away from home this season. Give me the Eagles -9!
|12-08-19||Lions +13 v. Vikings||Top||7-20||Push||0||44 h 5 m||Show|
50* LIONS/VIKINGS NFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Lions +13)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Lions catching double-digits against division rival Minnesota on Sunday. The Lions are just 3-8-1 and have lost 5 straight, but the talent is there. Of their 8 losses this season, only one has come by more than 8 points and their largest deficit is by just 12. They have had the lead in so many of their games this year and just haven't been able to finish. I just don't see this team laying down against a division opponent and I don't love this spot for Minnesota coming off that crazy loss to the Seahawks on Monday Night Football. Not only will the Vikings be playing on short rest, the Lions will have had 3 extra days of prep time after playing on Thursday last week. Give me Detroit +13!
|12-05-19||Cowboys -3 v. Bears||Top||24-31||Loss||-110||10 h 23 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Cowboys -3)
I'll take my chances here with Dallas as a small road favorite. For me it comes down to quarterback play and who I trust more to make the big plays when needed. It’s not really much of a debate in my eyes. Dak Prescott is far from elite, but he’s a heck of a lot better than Mitch Trubisky.
Not only do the Bears have a liability at quarterback in Trubisky, but they don’t have any real weapons at receiver or tight end and the running game has been non-existent. Chicago has rushed for more than 90 yards just twice all season and only once in their last 10 games. When you can’t effectively run the ball on first down, you end up with a lot of 3rd and long situations and Trubisky isn’t a guy that convert those on a consistent basis.
I’m also not buying the thought that the Bears have turned their season around with 3 wins in their last 4 games. Especially when you take into consideration that two of those were against the Lions and the other was against the Giants and they won all 3 by 7 or less.
Sure the Cowboys were embarrassed on Thanksgiving by Buffalo, but that’s a really good Bills team. They also hurt themselves in that defeat, as they only managed 15 points despite putting up over 425 yards of total offense. Give me Dallas -3!
|12-02-19||Vikings v. Seahawks -2.5||Top||30-37||Win||100||10 h 24 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Seahawks -2.5)
I'll take my chances here with Seattle laying less than a field goal at home on Monday Night Football. I just think Minnesota is getting way too much respect here coming off of their bye. Seahawks are 9-2 on MNF since Pete Carroll came to town, which speaks volumes to just how tough it is to win at CenturyLink Field in prime time games. The Vikings clearly aren't a bad team with a 8-3 record, but it worth noting that they currently don't have a single win against a team that currently has a winning record. In their last 3 games they lost at KC without Mahomes, won at Dallas by 4 despite getting outgained by 79 yards and had to rally from 20 down to beat the Broncos at home. Seattle is also a team that I think has gotten better with each week and with a win can take over the top spot in the NFC West and put themselves in a position for a first round bye. Give me Seattle -2.5!
|12-01-19||Titans v. Colts -2.5||Top||31-17||Loss||-104||91 h 2 m||Show|
50* NFL AFC SOUTH PLAY OF THE MONTH (Colts -2.5)
I just think there’s a ton of value here with Indianapolis laying less than a field goal at home. I think a big reason for the line is the fact that the Colts come in having lost 3 of 4 and the Titans have won 4 of 5.
What most will fail to overlook is that Tennessee’s recent hot streak has come in a very favorable spot in their schedule. All 4 wins during their recent run have come at home and only one of those was against a team with a winning record. As for the Colts recent woes. You can’t knock them for losing at Houston on just 3-days of rest and the other two were a 24-26 loss at Pittsburgh and a 12-16 loss to the Dolphins. Starting QB Jacoby Brissett left in the 2nd quarter with a knee injury against the Steelers and Adam Vinatieri missed a potential game-winning field goal in the final minutes. Indy didn’t have Brissett for the loss to Miami and backup Brian Hoyer threw 3 picks in the defeat.
What a lot of people overlook with the Colts is just how good they are on the defensive side of the ball. Indy has really done a 180 on that the last couple of years. Colts are only giving up 19.7 ppg on the season and that drops to a mere 17.8 ppg on the road.
One thing they have been really good at of late is stopping the run. Since giving up 188 yards rushing to the Raiders in Week 4, they have allowed just 76.7 ypg. If you can take away Derek Henry and the Titans running game, there’s really not much that offense can do to beat you. They just don’t have the weapons on the outside.
Colts are also 40-19 ATS last 59 times they have come off a SU loss, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs a team with a winning record and a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 times they have been matched up against a division opponent. Give me Indianapolis -2.5!
|11-28-19||Bills v. Cowboys -6.5||Top||26-15||Loss||-110||22 h 22 m||Show|
50* BILLS/COWBOYS THANKSGIVING DAY TOP PLAY (Cowboys -6.5)
I'll take my chances here with Dallas laying less than a touchdown at home against the Bills. While I think people have made a big mistake betting against Buffalo in previous games simply because of their soft schedule (Bills were one of my favorite plays last week against Denver), I do think they are going to have a tough time here keeping it close against a good Dallas team on the road.
First and foremost, it’s extremely difficult playing on the road in these Thursday games, where you have just 3 days of rest, especially for the team that has to travel. Keep in mind that while Buffalo was at home last week, they will be playing their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks, so they have been on the go a lot of late.
At the same time, Dallas has a lot of familiarity playing on Thanksgiving Day and usually play well in this spot in front of their home fans. Last year the beat the Redskins 31-23.
One thing that I think really speaks volumes to Buffalo’s schedule and how easy it’s been, is the fact that their opponents on the season are averaging a mere 18.5 ppg and 304 ypg. It definitely makes you think twice about their defensive numbers, as they look elite giving up just 15.7 ppg and 289 ypg.
I also think it’s fair to say that Dallas and Philadelphia are two pretty evenly matched teams and Buffalo lost 31-13 at home to the Eagles back in Week 8. Philadelphia was able to impose their will on the ground in that game, rushing for 218 yards. When Dallas can get Zeke and that running game going, that offense is really tough to stop. Give me the Cowboys -6.5!
|11-25-19||Ravens v. Rams OVER 46.5||Top||45-6||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
50* RAVENS/RAMS MNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 46.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Ravens and Rams eclipsing the total set by the books on Monday Night Football. LA has a solid defense, but there's just no slowing down Lamar Jackson and that Ravens offense. His ability to make something out of nothing is unreal and it's really deflating as a defense to do everything right and still give up the big play. Key here is I think the Rams are poised to go score-for-score with Baltimore. Goff is much better at home and will have his full compliment of weapons at his disposal with Cooks back from injury. Baltimore's defense is good but not great and I think they struggle to play well in this one. Give me the OVER 46.5!
|11-24-19||Packers v. 49ers -3||Top||8-37||Win||100||31 h 39 m||Show|
50* PACKERS/49ERS SNF PLAY OF THE YEAR (49ers -3)
I'll gladly take my chances here with San Francisco getting right at home on Sunday Night Football against the Packers. I think after a couple of lackluster performances the 49ers are going to lay a beating on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. I just don't think that Green Bay offensive line has any chance here of keeping that 49ers front from making life miserable for Rodgers. On the flip side of this, I think San Francisco's offense is poised to get back on track with the return of tight end George Kittle, who missed the last two. 49ers are also expected to have both wideouts Deebo Samuel and Emanuel Sanders after both were listed as questionable, they are now probable. Give me San Francisco -3!
|11-24-19||Bucs v. Falcons -3.5||Top||35-22||Loss||-109||23 h 10 m||Show|
50* NFL NFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Falcons -3.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Atlanta laying a short number at home against the Bucs. These two teams have identical 3-7 records, but it doesn't feel like it. Tampa Bay is on a downward spiral, while the Falcons have seemed to figure things out. Any concern that Atlanta's 26-9 win at New Orleans was a fluke were put to rest in a 29-3 win at Carolina last week. What was once one of the worst defenses in the league is playing like one of the best. I'll take my chances that strong defensive play carries over. With the way Tampa struggles to stop the pass and the weapons Atlanta has on the outside, this could get ugly in a hurry. Give me the Falcons -3.5!
|11-18-19||Chiefs -4 v. Chargers||Top||24-17||Win||100||10 h 27 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chiefs -4)
I'll take my chances here with Kansas City covering the spread over the Chargers on Monday Night Football in Mexico City. I know the Chiefs are coming off an ugly loss at Tennessee where they gifted the Titans the win. I still think this KC team is a legit Super Bowl contender. Patrick Mahomes was sensational in his first game back from a dislocated knee cap, throwing for over 400 yards with 3 scores. KC's defense struggled with containing Derek Henry, but I still like what I've seen from them on that side. They are much improved over a year ago and this Chargers offense hasn't been anything special. Give me the Chiefs -4!
|11-17-19||Patriots -4 v. Eagles||Top||17-10||Win||100||30 h 34 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF PLAY OF THE YEAR(Patriots -4)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Patriots on Sunday. For me it's automatic to take New England coming off a loss and an absolute no-brainer if they are coming off a bye. I expect a big bounce back effort from the Patriots defense. The big reason they struggled with Baltimore in their last game is there's just no defending an elite mobile quarterback like Lamar Jackson. Also, if coming off a loss and a bye wasn't enough to get you to take the Patriots, I got to believe NE wants some revenge against the Eagles after losing to them in the SB a couple years back, as this is the first meetings since that game. Pats are 16-5 ATS last 21 off a loss by 14 or more and 9-2 ATS last 11 on the road after a bye week. Give me New England -4!
|11-17-19||Texans v. Ravens -4||Top||7-41||Win||100||26 h 10 m||Show|
50* NFL AFC SHARP MONEY PLAY OF THE MONTH (Ravens -4)
I don't know that there's a team playing better than the Ravens right now and I while the Texans are coming off of their bye, I don't see Houston being able to keep pace with Lamar Jackson and that Baltimore offense. Keep in mind there's a little extra incentive for Jackson, who certainly hasn't forgot about that heartbreaking loss he suffered in college to Deshaun Watson and Clemson. He will be out to get his revenge on Sunday. Give me Baltimore -4!
|11-14-19||Steelers v. Browns OVER 41||Top||7-21||Loss||-110||11 h 30 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 41)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 41. I almost always lean to the OVER in these Thursday night games, as I just don’t think defenses can play up to their potential on just 3 days of rest. On top of that, I think we are getting a pretty decent number here with both of these teams coming off games in Week 10 where neither side scored 20 points.
Not only do I think both defenses will struggle with getting their bodies up to speed on just 3 days of rest, but I could see both defenses being a bit emotionally drained from really big games at home last week. No one was giving the Steelers a shot at beating the Rams at home and few believed in the Browns being able to beat the Bills. Both defenses had to give everything they had in those wins, which I think only adds to the likelihood that they struggle a bit on Thursday.
Also, history is on our side. Only once in the last 5 meetings have these two teams failed to reach 40 points. Last year they combined for 42 in Cleveland and 51 at Pittsburgh.
I think we could see Cleveland’s offense see an uptick in production now that Kareem Hunt is finally eligible. Hunt made his debut last week and rushed for 30 yards on just 4 attempts (7.5 yards/carry). He also had 7 receptions for 44 yards. Hunt was a difference maker with the Chiefs in his brief time in the league.
As for the Steelers offense, they are expected to get back running back James Conner, who has missed the last two weeks with a shoulder injury. Conner is a big upgrade over what the Steelers had to use without him. Give me the OVER 41!
|11-11-19||Seahawks v. 49ers -6||Top||27-24||Loss||-105||10 h 3 m||Show|
50* SEAHAWKS/49ERS MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (49ers -6)
I'll take my chances here with the 49ers winning by at least a touchdown at home against the Seahawks. I just think it's going to be really hard for Seattle to make a game out of this. Seahawks rely so much on Russell Wilson and their passing game and will be going up against an elite 49ers pass defense that is giving up just 139 ypg and 4.9 yards/attempt. It's not just the defense. San Francisco has a better offense than they get credit for and are averaging 35.3 ppg at home. 49ers will be out to make a statement on Monday Night Football. Give me SF -6!
|11-10-19||Rams -3.5 v. Steelers||Top||12-17||Loss||-117||25 h 24 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF GAME OF THE YEAR (Rams -3.5)
I give a lot of props to Pittsburgh and how they have continued to play hard, but I just think they are getting a little too much love here. The thing you have to keep in mind is that 3 of their 4 wins have come at home against the Bengals, Dolphins and Colts. Not to mention Indy lost their starting QB early in that game.
I just don’t think their offense is going to be able to keep up. Pittsburgh has struggled to effectively run the football and Rudolph hasn’t been that impressive. If they can’t run the ball, that’s a problem, because they won’t be able to play keepaway from the Rams offense. Nothing supports this more than the fact that the LA is a perfect 7-0 ATS under Sean McVay against teams who are averaging 90 or less rushing yards game.
The Rams just aren’t covering in this spot, they are destroying teams. Their average margin of victory is by 19.7 ppg (35.1 to 15.4).
Another thing is that you almost just have to back road favorites blindly when coming off a bye. Teams laying points on the road with 2 or more weeks of rest are 100-57 (64%) ATS dating back to 1983. Steelers are also just 2-5 ATS last 7 at home vs a team with a winning road record and Rams are 6-0 ATS last 6 on the road. Give me Los Angeles -3.5!
|11-10-19||Lions v. Bears -2.5||Top||13-20||Win||100||73 h 46 m||Show|
50* LIONS/BEARS NFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Bears -2.5)
The public perception couldn’t be much worse with Chicago right now and I think it’s created unbelievable value with the Bears laying less than a field goal at home. There’s no denying that Trubisky is not playing well, but I don’t think he can play any worse than he has. If anything, he’s due for a breakout performance.
One thing that I think gets overlooked with the Bears and most notably Trubisky’s poor start to the season, is the fact that Chicago has played a bunch of really good defensive teams. The only bad defense he’s faced in 2019 is the Redskins and he threw for 231 yards and 3 scores. Detroit’s defense has been holding them back all season and their secondary is 30th in the league, giving up 288.4 ypg.
Another thing that has quietly gone under the radar a bit in the Bears offensive struggles, is rookie running back David Montgomery is starting to get going. While he had just 40 yards against the Eagles, he scored twice and had a lot of nice runs in the 2nd half. The week before he had 135 yards against the Chargers. Lions run defense has allowed 165 or more yards in 3 of their last 4.
I think we see the Chicago offense come to life, while the Bears defense makes life difficult on Matt Stafford and the Lions offense. Detroit’s offense just hasn’t been the same since losing Kerryon Johnson to a season-ending injury. Stafford has played 30 games in his career against strong defensive teams that allow 15 to 21 ppg and has won just 6 times. Bears are 18-7 ATS last 25 at home off 3 straight losses and 22-8 ATS last 30 at home after two straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. Give me Chicago -2.5!
|11-07-19||Chargers -119 v. Raiders||Top||24-26||Loss||-119||11 h 57 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chargers -119)
I just feel like the price is too good to pass up with Los Angeles. Even though the Chargers are off such an impressive win, I still think we are getting some value on the line because of how bad they have been to this point. I also think it helps the Raiders come in off a big home win and cover.
Usually the home team has a big edge in these Thursday games, but it’s minimal travel here for the Chargers. You also have to factor in how LA has dominated the series with 4 straight wins.
You never want to overreact in the NFL, but I think it’s smart to try and get ahead of some things. There was just a different feel to that Chargers offense under Steichen. They hadn’t rushed for more than 40 yards in 4 straight games and finished with a season-high 159 yards in his first game calling the plays.
Not only that, Rivers carved up the Packers secondary and that’s a Green Bay defense that had really been impressive over the first half of the season. Now the Chargers get to carry over that confidence and momentum on offense against one of the league’s worst defenses.
As for LA’s defense, they haven’t been the problem this year. I think seeing the offense finally get going really lit a fire under this team and when the offense is getting first downs they are able to stay fresh and let their dominant front 7 go to work. If this defense can slow down the Raiders running game, this thing could get ugly. Give me the Chargers!
|11-04-19||Cowboys -6.5 v. Giants||Top||37-18||Win||100||11 h 31 m||Show|
50* COWBOYS/GIANTS MNF ATS NO-BRAINER (Cowboys -6.5)
I'll take my chances here with Dallas laying less than a touchdown against the Giants. These two teams played in Week 1 and the Cowboys rolled to a 35-17. They were really in complete control the whole way, leading 21-7 at the half and 35-10 going into the 4th quarter.
People are wanting to give the Giants a pass on that game because Eli Manning started, but it's not like he played bad. Manning was 30 or 44 with 306 yards and a TD (0 interceptions). How much more can the rookie Daniel Jones give them?
Dallas had that ugly 3-game losing streak before crushing the Eagles 37-10 in Week 7. They took that win into the bye and that extra time to prepare for this game is huge. Philadelphia has also rolled off 2 straight wins since they beat them and they need this game to stay in front of the NFC East.
Cowboys have only been outgained in 1 game this season and that was by 9 yards at New Orleans against the Saints in a 12-10 loss. In their loss to Green Bay they outgained the Packers by 228 yards. Giants defense is awful.
Dallas is 13-2 ATS Last 15 division games and have covered 5 straight against the Giants. New York is just 2-9-1 ATS last 12 at home. Give me the Cowboys -6.5!
|11-03-19||Bucs v. Seahawks OVER 52.5||Top||34-40||Win||100||31 h 58 m||Show|
50* NFC LATE AFTERNOON TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 52.5)
The OVER has cashed in each of the Bucs last 5 games and it’s pretty easy to see why with all the points they are giving up. Tampa Bay has allowed 30+ points in 5 of their 7 games this season.
I also don’t think this is an ideal spot for the defense to play well against an elite quarterback like Russell Wilson (TB 31st vs pass) and the fact that a lot of the Bucs players have to be running on fumes. Tampa Bay hasn’t played a home game since Week 3 (Sept. 22) as 4 of their last 5 have been true road games and the other was played in London.
As for Seattle’s defense, this is not the same vaunted Seahawks defense of years past. Seahawks are 27th against the pass and middle of the pack against the run. While the OVER is just 4-3 in their last 5, each of the last two games have barely stayed UNDER. They combined for 46 with a total of 48.5 against the Ravens and 47 with a total of 48.5 against the Falcons.
OVER is 15-5 in the Bucs last 20 road games and that includes a 9-2 OVER mark on the road with a total of 45.5 or more. OVER is also 11-2 in the Seahawks last 13 home games after a contest where they gave up 7 or more yards/play in their last game. Give me the OVER 52.5!
|11-03-19||Titans v. Panthers -3||Top||20-30||Win||100||28 h 8 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF PLAY OF THE MONTH (Panthers -3)
I just feel like this is the ideal spot to jump on the Panthers and I think we are getting a great price due to the fact that Carolina is off that ugly 51-13 loss at San Francisco and the Titans come in off back-to-back wins and covers.
First things first, the Panthers are the first team to get their butts kicked by the 49ers. Sure the offense only had 13 points and Kyle Allen played like crap, but San Francisco hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in any game this season. As for Allen and him throwing for just 158 yards with a 0-3 TD-INT ratio, that is not all that surprising against that defense. The 49ers have only given up 284 passing yards in their last 4 games combined.
Prior to that performance Allen had really been playing well. In the previous 4 games during the Panthers 4-game winning streak, he averaged 225 yards/game and posted a perfect 7-0 TD-INT ratio. Titans are just middle of the pack in passing defense and have allowed over 600 yards thru the air in their last two games.
Not only do I expect Allen to have a big bounce back performance, I think we get an unbelievable effort from the entire Panthers team. It’s so much easier to respond from a blowout loss than a game where you lose in the final seconds.
As for the Titans, I think this team is very fortunate to be 4-4. All 4 wins have come against teams who have losing records and own a combined 8-22 mark on the season. Last week they were outgained by the Bucs 389 to 246 and their only two TD drives in the first 3 quarters were off turnovers where the offense had to go 10 yards or less.
History is also on our side. Panthers are 23-6 under head coach Ron Rivera when off a road loss and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 under Rivera when off a road loss by 14 or more points. Give me Carolina -3!
|10-27-19||Packers -3.5 v. Chiefs||Top||31-24||Win||100||53 h 60 m||Show|
50* NFL PRIME TIME GAME OF THE YEAR (Packers -3.5)
I believe the drop-off from Mahomes to backup Matt Moore is significant. Moore finished with 117 yards in relief of Mahomes against the Broncos, but it wasn’t pretty for the most part. Take out the 57-yard pass to Tyreek Hill and the offense did next to nothing with him under center.
The only other scoring drives under Moore was his first series when he took over with a 1st & Goal from the 3 and had to settle for a field goal. The other came on a field goal after Denver went for it and failed on 4th down.
Green Bay’s defense is better than they showed last week against the Raiders and I expect a max effort from them in a prime time game. I just don’t see the Chiefs’ offense being able to do enough to give them a shot at winning this game or keeping it close.
As for Kansas City’s defense, I’m not reading anything into that performance against the Broncos. I don’t know what Denver is doing with Joe Flacco at quarterback, but it looks like he doesn’t want to be there and that offensive line is trash.
Based off what we have seen from this defense prior that game, I would be absolutely shocked if the Packers didn’t march the ball up and down the field. Keep in mind with KC’s offense likely limited, they should be getting pretty good field position throughout. Give me the Packers -3.5!
|10-27-19||Eagles v. Bills -120||Top||31-13||Loss||-120||25 h 55 m||Show|
50* NFL MONEY LINE PLAY OF THE MONTH (Bills -120)
I actually think there’s quite a bit of value with the Bills laying less than a field goal at home. The Eagles are a big public team, being just a couple years removed from winning the Super Bowl. Buffalo on the other hand is not a team the public likes to back, as they just really struggle to get behind teams that win with defense.
I just don’t know what more you need to see from the Eagles to realize they are a mediocre football team. They just laid an egg in the biggest game of their season to date and did so in a nationally televised prime time game. The week before they lost by 18 to Minnesota and were down 24-3 early in that one. They also got a home loss to the Lions and defeat at Atlanta. Not to mention they had to rally from a 20-7 halftime deficit at home in Week 1 to an awful Redskins team.
They got a big win at Green Bay, but that was a Thursday Night Game where anything goes on just 3-days of rest. Their only other win is against a Jets team that was down to their 3rd string quarterback.
Buffalo is no joke. I think people are reading too much into a sloppy win against the Dolphins, because of how bad Miami is perceived to be. The important thing is they played poorly and still won. I also think people want to knock the Bills because their 5 wins have come against teams who are a combined 6-27.
I get it, but for me it’s all about how well this team played in their only loss. Buffalo fell 16-10 at home to the Patriots and should have won. They outgained New England 375 to 224 and had 23 first downs to the Patriots 11 (only lost by 6 despite a -3 turnover differential).
Another massive factor here that I feel is getting overlooked is the the fact that the Eagles are playing their 3rd straight road game. Buffalo is also not a fun or easy place to play for opposing teams. Give me the Bills -1.5!
|10-24-19||Redskins v. Vikings OVER 42||Top||9-19||Loss||-104||46 h 59 m||Show|
50* REDSKINS/VIKINGS TNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 42)
I know the Redskins offense is hard to trust, but it’s not asking a lot for these two to get to 43 with both these defenses playing on 3 days rest.
It’s not out of the question that Minnesota could eclipse this total on their own. Vikings are playing with a ton of confidence on the offensive side of the ball and who knows how much resistance the Redskins defense will put up.
You can’t read anything into Washington holding the 49ers to 9-points with those conditions and the only other teams they have held under 30 points this season are the Dolphins and Giants. I would be shocked if Minnesota had anything fewer than 30 points in this game.
I’m going to count on Washington getting to at least 14 and I think they could get a few more. Minnesota’s defense has been slipping of late and with the way the offense figures to be moving the ball, they might not be 100% locked in. They also might call off the dogs if they do get up big, as they got a big game at KC on deck.
OVER is 9-2 in the Redskins last 11 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 7-1 in their last 8 games played on a Thursday. OVER is also 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Minnesota. Take the OVER!
|10-21-19||Patriots -9 v. Jets||Top||33-0||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
50* PATRIOTS/JETS MNF VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Patriots -9)
I'm rolling the dice with the Patriots. I think the big number and some injuries to the Patriots receiving corps has people thinking about taking the Jets, especially after New York just upset Dallas as a 7-point home dog last week.
I just feel the combination of MNF and people talking about how the Jets can win this game will have NE 100% locked in. I get the Pats are thin at receiver, but it doesn't matter with Tom Brady. If any team is dealing with injuries that should concern you, it's New York. Jets got 4 of their 5 starting linemen either out or question, as well as backup Kelechi Osemele. Same thing on the defensive line, where two more starters are questionable or out. They also got a ton of injuries at linebacker.
Patriots have gone 7-3-1 ATS last 11 on Monday Night Football are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 vs a team with a losing record and a ridiculous 40-15-2 in the month of October. Give me New England -9!
|10-20-19||Texans v. Colts -108||Top||23-30||Win||100||26 h 27 m||Show|
50* TEXANS/COLTS AFC SOUTH PLAY OF THE MONTH (Colts -108)
Even though a win here would propel Indy into first place in the AFC South and both teams are coming off a win against the Chiefs, I feel the public perception is that Houston is the better team. A big reason for that is the Texans got a big name quarterback in Deshaun Watson and the Colts are one of those teams that just don't wow you because they rely on their defense and run game.
I'll cover the most obvious factor favoring the Colts right away and that's Indianapolis coming off their bye. It's a huge advantage, especially this deep into the season and I just don't feel the public factors it enough into their handicapping. Not only does Indianapolis get an extra week to prepare for this matchup, this a definite letdown spot for Houston off the big win against the Chiefs and playing their second straight on the road.
Another thing here is Watson and the Texans offense has looked great the last two weeks, putting up 53 on the Falcons and 31 against the Chiefs. The thing is, both of those teams rank in the bottom 10 in total defense. Keep in mind prior to facing those two bad defenses they managed just 10 points and 264 total yards at home against the Panthers. They also had a game against a good Jags defense earlier in the year where they scored just 13 points with 263 total yards.
The Colts aren't elite defensively, but I definitely feel like they are one of the stronger teams on that side of the ball. You don't hold Patrick Mahomes and that Chiefs offense to just 13 points in KC without being strong on that side of the ball. Indianapolis was really able to get pressure on Mahomes and play great man-to-man defense.
It's no secret the Texans offensive line is sub-par at best. Houston has only played 6 games and Watson has already been sacked 18 times. Watson, like Mahomes, also has really poor numbers against teams that can play quality man-to-man defense.Colts are also getting back one of their best defensive players in All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard, who has missed the last 3 games in concussion protocol.Let's also not overlook how well the Colts played against Houston last year. They beat them twice and their lone loss was in overtime. They also won the most important game, taking out the Texans 21-7 on the road. Led 21-0 in the 4th quarter in that playoff win and outgained Houston by 100 yards.
Going back to last season the Colts are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs a team with a winning record and are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 off a bye. Texans are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Give me the Colts -1!
|10-20-19||Raiders v. Packers UNDER 47||Top||24-42||Loss||-110||26 h 1 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 47)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 47 in Sunday's showdown between the Raiders and Packers. I think this is going to be an ugly game the whole way. Green Bay is out star wide out Davante Adams and may be without both Allison and Valdes-Scantling. Problem is the Packers likely will need to be able to throw, as the Raiders have held 4 of their first 5 opponents under 100 yards rushing. They also have only allowed more than 255 passing once this season and that was to Mahomes and a healthy KC offense.
Oakland's defense is better than people give them credit for, plus they should be extra sharp on that side coming off a bye. As for the Packers defense, it's really what has saved this team. Green Bay has really improved on that side of the ball and we have seen this Oakland offense struggle to get going when up against better defensive teams. I don't see this turning into a shootout. BET THE UNDER 47!
|10-17-19||Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 48.5||Top||30-6||Loss||-110||9 h 18 m||Show|
50* CHIEFS/BRONCOS TNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 48.5)
It’s really hard for the books to set the number on the total high enough in these Thursday games. It’s hard for these players to bounce back from just 3-days of rest and it tends to have a bigger impact on the defenses ability to perform up to expectations.
The Chiefs offense welcomed back arguably their best weapon in wide out Tyreek Hill last week and he led the way with 5 catches for 80 yards and two scores.
I think the Broncos will have a tough time here keeping Mahomes and this Chiefs offense in check. At the same time, there’s little reason to think the Kansas City defense is going to play well in this game. They are down nose tackle Xavier Williams, defensive linemen Chris Jones and corner Kendall Fuller.
As bad as the Broncos offense has been, this is a team they can have success against. I also think it’s important to note that Denver’s offense has faced a lot of good defenses. Outside of their two division games against Oakland and Los Angeles, they have had to go up against the Bears, Jaguars, Packers and Titans. All of those teams rank in the top half of the league in scoring defense.
You also got to look at the last three meetings in the series, all of which have come with Mahomes as the starter for KC. Each of those games saw at least 50 combined points.
OVER is 17-5 in the Chiefs last 22 road games, 7-2 in their last 9 off a game they failed to cover, 4-1 in their last 5 off a SU loss and 5-1 in their last 6 on Thursday. Take the OVER!
Bonus Prop Bet: Philip Lindsay OVER 72.5 (-110) Rushing Yards
|10-14-19||Lions +4 v. Packers||Top||22-23||Win||100||9 h 52 m||Show|
50* NFL GB vs DET MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL TOP PLAY (Lions +4)
I'll take my chances here with Detroit cashing in as a 4-point dog. Lions aren't getting enough love here coming off their bye week. Detroit has had Green Bay's number of late. Packers offense has not been very good and will be without star wide out Devante Adams. Green Bay's defense has been solid, but they have struggled against teams with decent quarterbacks. They gave over 440 yards passing last week to Dallas. I like Patricia and the Lions to win this outright. Give me Detroit +4!
|10-13-19||Texans v. Chiefs -4||Top||31-24||Loss||-119||93 h 58 m||Show|
50* TEXANS/CHIEFS AFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Chiefs -4)
I think we are seeing a big overreaction here with last week’s loss at home to the Colts. If LeSean McCoy doesn’t fumble that ball deep in Indy territory midway through the 2nd quarter, KC was prime to take a 7-point lead and it would have been a lot different game with the Colts playing from behind.
I would have loved to see the Chiefs run the table, but I believe losing a game like that will work in their favor. Great teams and great players respond to adversity in a big way and I think we see a much more focused Kansas City team on Sunday.
I know there’s a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball for the Chiefs, but as long as No. 15 is behind center, it really doesn’t matter who is lined up around him. He’s going to make plays. There’s a good chance he gets back arguably the best weapon in the league outside of maybe Christian McCaffrey in wide out Tyreek Hill.
Also, one of the reasons the Colts had so much success against the Chiefs is their ability to play man defense. I don’t think the Texans pose near the threat on the defensive side of the ball. Back with Alex Smith, Reid’s offense always seemed to give Houston problems. Considering they went 22 straight games scoring at least 26 before the 13-point effort against the Colts, I’m confident they put up a big number in this one.
As for the defense and how will KC be able to stop Deshaun Watson and the Texans offense, I think they will look a lot better than they did against the Colts. Keep in mind Indy has a really good offensive line and was able to just run the ball at will. Texans aren’t near as good up front on the 0-line.
Another thing. Everyone is singing the praises of the Texans after their 21-point win over the Falcons, but keep in mind Atlanta actually had a 17-16 lead at the half and it was a 8-point game with less than 2 minutes to play.
Houston did finish with a 592 to 373 edge in total yards, but are 0-6 ATS under head coach Bill O’Brien after outgaining their previous opponent by 150 or more yards. Texans are also 0-7 ATS under O’Brien in games vs teams who average 29 or more points/game. Chiefs are 9-3 ATS last 12 after scoring 15 or fewer points and 10-4 ATS last 14 as a home favorite of 7-points or less. Give me KC -4!
|10-13-19||Seahawks v. Browns +1.5||Top||32-28||Loss||-110||24 h 32 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF PLAY OF THE MONTH (Browns +1.5)
I'll take my chances here with Cleveland as a home dog against the Seahawks. For starters, you got Seattle going west to east for an early start time, which is never easy. Seattle already did that once in Week 2 at Pittsburgh and were fortunate to beat the Steelers 28-26 and they didn't have Big Ben.
I also feel the Seahawks are overvalued coming off that 30-29 win at home against the Rams. They won that on a late TD after trailing the entire most of the 2nd half. They also had an ugly 21-20 win at home against the Bengals in Week 1 and lost at home to the Saints minus Drew Brees.
I know Cleveland just got embarrassed by the 49ers, but because that was on MNF they are even more undervalued. With Seattle likely down two offensive linemen and the Browns having a strong defensive front, I think it's going to be really hard for Russell Wilson and that Seahawks offense to move the ball.
At 2-3 and a road game at New England on deck, we know we are getting the best from Cleveland on Sunday. Give me the Browns +1.5!
|10-10-19||Giants v. Patriots OVER 41||Top||14-35||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
50* GIANTS/PATRIOTS TNF VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 41)
New York will be down their top two running backs, as well as wideout Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram. Plus, we just saw Jones and the Giants do next to nothing against a good Minnesota defense and the Patriots defense has looked outstanding early on.
You just can’t expect teams to play up to their full potential on the defensive side of the ball when they only get 3 days of rest. Look at how good the Packers defense played in Week 1-3 (allowed a combined 35 points), how they struggled in Week 4 on Thursday Night Football (allowed 34 points) and then how good they played against Dallas last week.
I know Belichick has owned rookie quarterbacks and all that, but I think with Jones at quarterback they can put up at least 10-14 points and that’s on the low end of things.
At the same, I could see New England going over the total on their own. The Giants defense is awful. They let Kirk Cousins, who had been awful up to this point, throw for 306 yards and 2 scores while completing 82% of his passes. They are giving up 9.1 yards per pass play. They got no chance of slowing down Tom Brady and that Patriots offense. I think the Pats could play poorly and still score 30+ points.
The other thing is that with the Giants decimated at the running back position and them likely playing from behind early, New York is going to be forced to throw a lot. Add in Belichick’s ability to confuse rookie QB’s and it would shock me if the Giants didn’t have multiple turnovers in this game. That should lead to easy quick scores for NE. Give me the OVER 41!
|10-07-19||Browns v. 49ers -4.5||Top||3-31||Win||100||10 h 2 m||Show|
50* BROWNS/49ers MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (49ers -4.5)
I'll take my chances here with San Francisco at home against the Browns on Monday Night Football. I'm just not buying too much into Cleveland's 40-25 win at Baltimore last week. That Ravens defense is not as good as people think. I think the key to the Browns offense going off in that game against Baltimore was due to their ability to get the running game going. I don't think they will be able to have the same kind of success on the ground against a really good 49ers front. SF is giving up just 75 ypg and 3.4 yards/carry against the run. 49ers offense still put up 24 points despite 5 turnovers against the Steelers. Not to mention SF is coming off a bye, which is a huge advantage to them. Give me the 49ers -4.5!
|10-06-19||Packers v. Cowboys UNDER 47||Top||34-24||Loss||-109||88 h 4 m||Show|
50* NFC OVER/UNDER TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 47)
I'm expecting an ugly low-scoring affair in Sunday's big matchup between the Cowboys and Packers. I think both of these teams are a lot better defensively than people realize and a bit limited on the offensive side of the ball. Cowboys offense was awful against New Orleans. They had just 45 rushing yards and 212 thru the air. Packers defense gave up a lot last week to the Eagles, but that was largely due to it being played on Thursday and the defensive guys just not having enough time to recover. Give me the UNDER 47!
|10-06-19||Bills v. Titans -2||Top||14-7||Loss||-110||94 h 38 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Titans -2)
These are two very similar teams, in terms of both want to grind out wins behind a strong running game and defense. I would much rather take the home team in a matchup like this. I just don’t trust bad offenses on the road, especially against a good defense.
On top of that, we don’t even know if the Bills will have their starting quarterback for this game. Allen is questionable with a concussion and if he can’t go Matt Barkley would be the starter. Even if Allen plays I think Buffalo’s offense struggles, but I give the Bills no shot without him.
I also feel like this is the ideal spot to fade Buffalo. I think the Bills gained a lot of respect from the public in their loss to New England and rightfully so, but what people are overlooking is how difficult it can be for a team like Buffalo that relies so much on effort and energy to bounce back from a game like that. New England is the one team they want to beat going into the year and they have to feel like they gave the game away. Bills had 4 turnovers and had a punt blocked for a score. You outgain a team 375 to 224 and have 23 to 11 edge in first downs, you should win the game.
Another thing is that while Buffalo is a great defensive team, their strength is stopping the pass. They were No. 1 against the pass last year and are currently No. 4. The run defense is solid, but they are allowing 4.1 yards/carry on the season and giving up 4.8 yards/carry on the road. Titans clearly want to establish the run with Derrick Henry. Give me the Titans -2!
|10-03-19||Rams v. Seahawks OVER 49||Top||29-30||Win||100||20 h 1 m||Show|
50* RAMS/SEAHAWKS TNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 49)
My early lean here would be to take the OVER 49. I just don’t know if Seattle is as good as we think and I’m not about to take LA in a pick’em on the road with 3 days of rest. I just think given how defenses have struggled to perform in these Thursday games, that’s where the value is.
Clearly there are some holes in the Rams defense, especially against the pass. Jameis Winston completed 28 of 41 for 385 yards and 4 scores last week. They let Chris Godwin haul in 12 catches for 172 yards and 2 scores. Russell Wilson only threw for 240 last week, but that’s because they were up big early. He had 406 the previous week against the Saints and 300 the week before at Pittsburgh. I think he’s going to have a big day throwing the ball.
As for the Rams offense, I really think that outburst by them was a big positive in the loss to Tampa last week. That was the first time all year they looked anything like the offense from 2018. Seattle’s defense has been decent, but they have also faced Andy Dalton, Mason Rudolph, Teddy Bridgewater and Kyler Murray.
You also have to take into account the recent meetings between these two have all been high-scoring. Both meetings last year saw at least 64 combined points.
Over is 10-3 in Seahawks last 13 games overall, including 8-2 in their last 10 at home vs a team with a winning road record. OVER 7-3 in the Rams last 10 after giving up 30 or more points and 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 30 or more. Give me the OVER 49!
|09-30-19||Bengals v. Steelers -3||Top||3-27||Win||100||9 h 22 m||Show|
50* STEELERS/BENGALS MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (on Steelers -3)
I'll take my chances here with the Steelers laying just a field goal at home against the Bengals. This just too good a price to pass up with Pittsburgh in a prime time game home. Mason Rudolph is going to be better than he was last week against the 49ers. Bengals don't have near the talent on the defensive side of the ball and are really thin up front on the d-line.
I definitely don't trust Andy Dalton in big games. He's still without his best weapon in A.J. Green and now must go without starting left tackle Cordy Glenn. If the Bills weren't so anemic offensively they would have lost by a lot more last week. I wouldn't be shocked at all if this turned into a blowout. Give me the Steelers -3!
|09-29-19||Redskins +3 v. Giants||Top||3-24||Loss||-100||42 h 36 m||Show|
50* NFC EAST PLAY OF THE MONTH (Redskins +3)
I'll take my chances here with Washington as a small road dog against the Giants. The public can't get enough of Daniel Jones right now and I think it has NY overvalued. Sure he played great in the win against TB last week, but they lost their best player in Saquan Barkley. Washington will be able to gameplan more for Jones, as they won't have to respect the run as much. I also think the Redskins are the better team despite the worse record. Giants defense is awful and I think Washington will have no problem moving the ball. I don't think it will be as easy for NY's offense. Give me the Redskins +3!