|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-02-20||49ers v. Chiefs -120||Top||20-31||Win||100||52 h 5 m||Show|
50* NFL CHIEFS/49ERS SB 54 SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chiefs -120)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Kansas City in Super Bowl 54 against the 49ers. I just think the Chiefs are too good offensively and are a lot better defensively than they get credit for. KC's defense has been one of the best in the league over the second half of the season and I just don't know that you can beat them running the football.
As for the 49ers and that great defensive front, it's as big a factor against a QB like Mahomes. Not only can Mahomes can it out quick, but he's extremely mobile with an incredible sense of pressure. Not to mention all the speed Mahomes has at his disposal.
I also think it's a huge advantage for KC given the SB is played with a bye, as there's arguably not been a better coach outside of maybe Belichick in terms of what he can do with an extra week to prepare.
Another thing for me is the 49ers are pretty set in their zone defense and I just think you can't run zone against Mahomes and this offense. We saw it last year with the same 49ers defensive scheme in their Week 3 matchup. Chiefs scored a TD on their first 5 possessions of the game and had a 35-10 lead at the half. Once Mahomes and Reid know what the defense is trying to do, there's really no stopping them. Give me the Chiefs -120!
|01-19-20||Titans v. Chiefs -7||Top||24-35||Win||100||7 h 13 m||Show|
50* AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -7)
I'll take my chances here with the Chiefs covering the 7-point spread at home against the Titans. It's crazy to me how the public has fallen in love with this Tennessee team. Wins at New England and Baltimore are impressive, but the Chiefs are a whole different animal and this team is coming off a magical win last week where they turned a 24-0 deficit in the 1st quarter into a 28-24 lead at the half and won by 20.
I get the Titans beat the Chiefs at home earlier this season, but KC had a 29-20 lead in that game in the 4th quarter and were up 8 with less than a minute to play. Chiefs had a 530 to 371 edge in total yards, 28 to 19 edge in first downs and Mahomes threw for 446 yards and 3 scores in his first game back from that dislocated knee (didn't have near the mobility he does right now).
Derrick Henry rushed for 188 yards and 2 scores and they should have lost, so even if he has a big day I think KC still wins this going away. The Chiefs defense has really transformed into a top tier unit and keep in mind that while they gave up 31 to the Texans last week, Houston scored a TD on a block punt and were gift-wrapped another on a muffed punt that set them up with 1st and Goal at the 6-yard line.
I also think Titans have to be running out of gas. They not only have won both of their playoff games on the road, but they also closed out the season at Houston in a must-win to even get into the playoffs. Winning 3 straight games on the road is tough, 4 in a row in 4 weeks is as difficult as it gets. Give me the Chiefs -7!
|01-12-20||Texans v. Chiefs -9.5||Top||31-51||Win||100||48 h 58 m||Show|
50* NFL CHIEFS/TEXANS DIV ROUND TOP PLAY (Chiefs -9.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Chiefs laying it on the Texans and winning this game by at least double-digits. Houston pulled out a miraculous overtime win over the Bills, as they were down 16-0 in the 2nd half and found a way to win. That's just Buffalo's inability to put teams away with their anemic offense.
I know Houston was able to go on the road and upset the Chiefs 31-24 in the regular-season, but things just kind of unraveled for KC, as they actually jumped out to a 17-3 lead in the 1st quarter. The Chiefs defense just wasn't very good in that game and at that time they just weren't very good on that side of the ball. This defense is drastically better now than it was.
The other big thing is the two weeks that the Chiefs get to prepare for this game. Few have been better than Andy Reid when getting two weeks to prepare for a team. He's 18-3 ATS in the regular season off a bye and 4-1 ATS in the playoffs. If you remember last year the Colts had a big Wild Card win at Houston (21-7) and then lost 31-13 at KC the next week.
Simply put the Chiefs have the better head coach (not even close), the better quarterback and a massive home field advantage. Give me Kansas City -9.5!
|01-11-20||Vikings v. 49ers -7||Top||10-27||Win||100||26 h 31 m||Show|
50* NFL VIKINGS/49ERS DIV ROUND TOP PLAY (49ers -7)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the 49ers winning by more than a touchdown at home against the Vikings. Hats off to Minnesota for their win at New Orleans last week, but no way do I trust the Vikings to pull off the upset here and I would be shocked if they kept this close.
I just think the 49ers are hands down the better team and few teams needed that bye week more than San Francisco. The defense will be as healthy as it's been all in a long time with linebacker Kwon Alexander and safety Jaquiski Tartt back in the lineup. There's also a good chance Dee Ford will be able to get on the field in some capacity.
I just think when they are right it's near impossible to pass against them and I just don't think the Vikings run game is strong enough to carry the load. One win in a big game doesn't do it for me when it comes to trusting Kirk Cousins in a spot like this. I think their inability to move the ball is going allow the 49ers offense to wear the Vikings defense down and create the separation needed to cover this number. Give me the 49ers -7!
|01-05-20||Vikings v. Saints UNDER 50.5||Top||26-20||Win||100||3 h 17 m||Show|
50* VIKINGS/SAINTS NFL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 50.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 50.5 in the big NFC Wild Card matchup between the Saints and Vikings. I get the Saints come into this game on an offensive tear, as they scored 34 or more in each of their last 4 games, but I just don't see them matching that success against a really good Vikings defense. At the same time, I don't think Minnesota's offense is going to have much success here and I actually think they are going to focus a lot more on running the ball to not only keep their defense fresh, but to keep Drew Brees off the field. Give me the UNDER 50.5!
|01-04-20||Titans v. Patriots UNDER 44.5||Top||20-13||Win||100||11 h 22 m||Show|
50* NFL PATS/TITANS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 44.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 44.5 between the Titans and Patriots. I'm not anticipating this one being all that entertaining, as I think both offenses are going to have a miserable time moving the ball. Pats offense is broken and the Titans offense isn't good enough to exploit an elite NE defense on the road. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to reach 20 points in this one. UNDER is 16-5 in Pats last 21 games off a loss. Give me the UNDER 44.5!
|12-29-19||Cardinals +7.5 v. Rams||Top||24-31||Win||100||50 h 46 m||Show|
50* NFC WEST PLAY OF THE YEAR (Cardinals +7.5)
I love the value here with the Cardinals at +7.5 and would be taking them at anything over a field goal. Rams are not going to be the least bit interested in playing this game after last week crushing loss to the 49ers that ended any hopes they had of sneaking into the playoffs. Hard for a team that was in the Super Bowl a year ago to get up for a meaningless Week 17 game. Cardinals on the other hand have shown they want to finish the season strong and even if Murray can't go I like them to win this game outright. Give me Arizona +7.5!
|12-23-19||Packers v. Vikings -4.5||Top||23-10||Loss||-110||10 h 14 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Vikings -4.5)
I'll take my chances here with Minnesota covering the 4.5-point spread at home against the Packers. Green Bay might have Aaron Rodgers and one of the best records in the NFC, but I just don't think they are anywhere close to as good as people think. The books definitely seem to agree with this line being 4.5 with Minnesota likely down their top two packs.
Green Bay really isn't good on either side of the ball. Packers are 22nd in total offense at 336.6 ypg and rank in the bottom half of the league in both rushing and passing. Green Bay's defense comes in having held each of their last 3 opponents to 15 or fewer, but that's come against the Giants/ Redskins and Bears. Packers are 23rd against the pass and 25th against the run.
Vikings are 32-15 ATS at home under Zimmer and 22-8 ATS in their last 30 as a home favorite of 7 or less. Give me Minnesota -4.5!
|12-22-19||Chiefs -6 v. Bears||Top||26-3||Win||100||12 h 51 m||Show|
50* CHIEFS/BEARS SNF PLAY OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -6)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Chiefs winning by at least a touchdown on the road against the Bears. Kansas City needs to win here to keep their hopes of getting a first round bye alive and I also feel like the Chiefs want to keep the momentum going into the playoffs.
You also got KC head coach Andy Reid facing off against former assistant Matt Nagy and I think not only that gives the Chiefs an edge, but also adds a little more incentive. The Bears are also sitting at 7-7 and out of the playoff race, so it wouldn't come as a shocker for them to not play up to their potential.
More than anything, I just don't see Chicago being able to keep pace offensively with Mahomes and this high-powered KC offense. Not to mention the Chiefs defense has made a remarkable turnaround not only from last year but from the first month of the season. KC's stop unit has been one of the best in the league over the last 4 weeks and should have no problem keeping Trubisky and the Bears in check. Give me the Chiefs -6!
|12-16-19||Colts v. Saints OVER 46.5||Top||7-34||Loss||-110||11 h 20 m||Show|
50* COLTS/SAINTS MNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 46.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 46.5 between the Colts/Saints on Monday Night Football. New Orleans is rolling on the offensive side of the ball. While it was in a losing effort, the Saints put up 46 points and nearly 500 yards of offense against the 49ers last Sunday. They are now averaging 35.0 ppg in their last 4. They will be facing a Colts defense that has allowed 38 to the Bucs and 31 to the Titans in their last 2. Most recently they let Jameis Winston threw for 467 yards against them.
As for the Colts offense, they should be able to hold their own in this game. New Orleans is not playing at the same level defensively as they did early in the year and they just suffered to massive injuries on that side of the ball, losing both Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport to season-ending injuries. I think we could see these two eclipse this total by the 3rd quarter. Give me the OVER 46.5!
|12-15-19||Broncos v. Chiefs OVER 46||Top||3-23||Loss||-109||115 h 8 m||Show|
50* NFL AFC WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 46)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 46 in Sunday's AFC West matchup between the Broncos and Chiefs. I'm well aware that it's going to be snowing in KC before during and after the game. The betting public sees this and instantly wants to take the UNDER, but in reality the snow actually helps the offenses, as it's much harder to react on defense, as well as generate a pass rush. The biggest thing weather wise that hurts offense is wind and it's not suppose to be that windy.
I just think this KC offense is ready to explode after being bottled up last week against the Patriots. With that said there's no shame in scoring 23 points on that NE defense, especially on the road and the Chiefs should have had a lot more.
There's no question the KC defense has improved with each passing week, but it's far from elite and worse defenses have had success against Brady and the Pats here of late. I know they held the Broncos to just 6-points in the first meeting, but that was with Joe Flacco at quarterback. Drew Lock is a big upgrade over Flacco and he's going to generate some big plays. He's also likely to make a couple mistakes, which should lead to some quick scores for Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. Give me the OVER 46!
|12-09-19||Giants v. Eagles -9||Top||17-23||Loss||-110||10 h 2 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Eagles -9)
I'll take my chances here with Philadelphia winning by double-digits at home against the Giants on Monday Night Football. I know the Eagles are a big favorite here, but after last week's loss to the Dolphins dropped them to 5-7, Philadelphia's backs are firmly against the wall and it just seems like whenever the Eagles are in this spot they deliver in a big way. I think a lot of people are expecting Eli Manning to come out and play well after not suiting up the last 11 weeks and I just don't think that's going to be the case. I'm in the belief the Eagles didn't give the Dolphins the respect they deserved and that defense will respond in a big way. Note that in the previous 4 games Philadelphia had allowed 17 or fewer points and in their last home game held Russell Wilson to 174 passing yards on 13 of 25 attempts. The other big thing here is the Giants defense. New York is giving up 30.8 ppg and 404 ypg away from home this season. Give me the Eagles -9!
|12-08-19||Lions +13 v. Vikings||Top||7-20||Push||0||44 h 5 m||Show|
50* LIONS/VIKINGS NFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Lions +13)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Lions catching double-digits against division rival Minnesota on Sunday. The Lions are just 3-8-1 and have lost 5 straight, but the talent is there. Of their 8 losses this season, only one has come by more than 8 points and their largest deficit is by just 12. They have had the lead in so many of their games this year and just haven't been able to finish. I just don't see this team laying down against a division opponent and I don't love this spot for Minnesota coming off that crazy loss to the Seahawks on Monday Night Football. Not only will the Vikings be playing on short rest, the Lions will have had 3 extra days of prep time after playing on Thursday last week. Give me Detroit +13!
|12-05-19||Cowboys -3 v. Bears||Top||24-31||Loss||-110||10 h 23 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Cowboys -3)
I'll take my chances here with Dallas as a small road favorite. For me it comes down to quarterback play and who I trust more to make the big plays when needed. It’s not really much of a debate in my eyes. Dak Prescott is far from elite, but he’s a heck of a lot better than Mitch Trubisky.
Not only do the Bears have a liability at quarterback in Trubisky, but they don’t have any real weapons at receiver or tight end and the running game has been non-existent. Chicago has rushed for more than 90 yards just twice all season and only once in their last 10 games. When you can’t effectively run the ball on first down, you end up with a lot of 3rd and long situations and Trubisky isn’t a guy that convert those on a consistent basis.
I’m also not buying the thought that the Bears have turned their season around with 3 wins in their last 4 games. Especially when you take into consideration that two of those were against the Lions and the other was against the Giants and they won all 3 by 7 or less.
Sure the Cowboys were embarrassed on Thanksgiving by Buffalo, but that’s a really good Bills team. They also hurt themselves in that defeat, as they only managed 15 points despite putting up over 425 yards of total offense. Give me Dallas -3!
|12-02-19||Vikings v. Seahawks -2.5||Top||30-37||Win||100||10 h 24 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Seahawks -2.5)
I'll take my chances here with Seattle laying less than a field goal at home on Monday Night Football. I just think Minnesota is getting way too much respect here coming off of their bye. Seahawks are 9-2 on MNF since Pete Carroll came to town, which speaks volumes to just how tough it is to win at CenturyLink Field in prime time games. The Vikings clearly aren't a bad team with a 8-3 record, but it worth noting that they currently don't have a single win against a team that currently has a winning record. In their last 3 games they lost at KC without Mahomes, won at Dallas by 4 despite getting outgained by 79 yards and had to rally from 20 down to beat the Broncos at home. Seattle is also a team that I think has gotten better with each week and with a win can take over the top spot in the NFC West and put themselves in a position for a first round bye. Give me Seattle -2.5!
|12-01-19||Titans v. Colts -2.5||Top||31-17||Loss||-104||91 h 2 m||Show|
50* NFL AFC SOUTH PLAY OF THE MONTH (Colts -2.5)
I just think there’s a ton of value here with Indianapolis laying less than a field goal at home. I think a big reason for the line is the fact that the Colts come in having lost 3 of 4 and the Titans have won 4 of 5.
What most will fail to overlook is that Tennessee’s recent hot streak has come in a very favorable spot in their schedule. All 4 wins during their recent run have come at home and only one of those was against a team with a winning record. As for the Colts recent woes. You can’t knock them for losing at Houston on just 3-days of rest and the other two were a 24-26 loss at Pittsburgh and a 12-16 loss to the Dolphins. Starting QB Jacoby Brissett left in the 2nd quarter with a knee injury against the Steelers and Adam Vinatieri missed a potential game-winning field goal in the final minutes. Indy didn’t have Brissett for the loss to Miami and backup Brian Hoyer threw 3 picks in the defeat.
What a lot of people overlook with the Colts is just how good they are on the defensive side of the ball. Indy has really done a 180 on that the last couple of years. Colts are only giving up 19.7 ppg on the season and that drops to a mere 17.8 ppg on the road.
One thing they have been really good at of late is stopping the run. Since giving up 188 yards rushing to the Raiders in Week 4, they have allowed just 76.7 ypg. If you can take away Derek Henry and the Titans running game, there’s really not much that offense can do to beat you. They just don’t have the weapons on the outside.
Colts are also 40-19 ATS last 59 times they have come off a SU loss, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs a team with a winning record and a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 times they have been matched up against a division opponent. Give me Indianapolis -2.5!
|11-28-19||Bills v. Cowboys -6.5||Top||26-15||Loss||-110||22 h 22 m||Show|
50* BILLS/COWBOYS THANKSGIVING DAY TOP PLAY (Cowboys -6.5)
I'll take my chances here with Dallas laying less than a touchdown at home against the Bills. While I think people have made a big mistake betting against Buffalo in previous games simply because of their soft schedule (Bills were one of my favorite plays last week against Denver), I do think they are going to have a tough time here keeping it close against a good Dallas team on the road.
First and foremost, it’s extremely difficult playing on the road in these Thursday games, where you have just 3 days of rest, especially for the team that has to travel. Keep in mind that while Buffalo was at home last week, they will be playing their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks, so they have been on the go a lot of late.
At the same time, Dallas has a lot of familiarity playing on Thanksgiving Day and usually play well in this spot in front of their home fans. Last year the beat the Redskins 31-23.
One thing that I think really speaks volumes to Buffalo’s schedule and how easy it’s been, is the fact that their opponents on the season are averaging a mere 18.5 ppg and 304 ypg. It definitely makes you think twice about their defensive numbers, as they look elite giving up just 15.7 ppg and 289 ypg.
I also think it’s fair to say that Dallas and Philadelphia are two pretty evenly matched teams and Buffalo lost 31-13 at home to the Eagles back in Week 8. Philadelphia was able to impose their will on the ground in that game, rushing for 218 yards. When Dallas can get Zeke and that running game going, that offense is really tough to stop. Give me the Cowboys -6.5!
|11-25-19||Ravens v. Rams OVER 46.5||Top||45-6||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
50* RAVENS/RAMS MNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 46.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Ravens and Rams eclipsing the total set by the books on Monday Night Football. LA has a solid defense, but there's just no slowing down Lamar Jackson and that Ravens offense. His ability to make something out of nothing is unreal and it's really deflating as a defense to do everything right and still give up the big play. Key here is I think the Rams are poised to go score-for-score with Baltimore. Goff is much better at home and will have his full compliment of weapons at his disposal with Cooks back from injury. Baltimore's defense is good but not great and I think they struggle to play well in this one. Give me the OVER 46.5!
|11-24-19||Packers v. 49ers -3||Top||8-37||Win||100||31 h 39 m||Show|
50* PACKERS/49ERS SNF PLAY OF THE YEAR (49ers -3)
I'll gladly take my chances here with San Francisco getting right at home on Sunday Night Football against the Packers. I think after a couple of lackluster performances the 49ers are going to lay a beating on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. I just don't think that Green Bay offensive line has any chance here of keeping that 49ers front from making life miserable for Rodgers. On the flip side of this, I think San Francisco's offense is poised to get back on track with the return of tight end George Kittle, who missed the last two. 49ers are also expected to have both wideouts Deebo Samuel and Emanuel Sanders after both were listed as questionable, they are now probable. Give me San Francisco -3!
|11-24-19||Bucs v. Falcons -3.5||Top||35-22||Loss||-109||23 h 10 m||Show|
50* NFL NFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Falcons -3.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Atlanta laying a short number at home against the Bucs. These two teams have identical 3-7 records, but it doesn't feel like it. Tampa Bay is on a downward spiral, while the Falcons have seemed to figure things out. Any concern that Atlanta's 26-9 win at New Orleans was a fluke were put to rest in a 29-3 win at Carolina last week. What was once one of the worst defenses in the league is playing like one of the best. I'll take my chances that strong defensive play carries over. With the way Tampa struggles to stop the pass and the weapons Atlanta has on the outside, this could get ugly in a hurry. Give me the Falcons -3.5!
|11-18-19||Chiefs -4 v. Chargers||Top||24-17||Win||100||10 h 27 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chiefs -4)
I'll take my chances here with Kansas City covering the spread over the Chargers on Monday Night Football in Mexico City. I know the Chiefs are coming off an ugly loss at Tennessee where they gifted the Titans the win. I still think this KC team is a legit Super Bowl contender. Patrick Mahomes was sensational in his first game back from a dislocated knee cap, throwing for over 400 yards with 3 scores. KC's defense struggled with containing Derek Henry, but I still like what I've seen from them on that side. They are much improved over a year ago and this Chargers offense hasn't been anything special. Give me the Chiefs -4!
|11-17-19||Patriots -4 v. Eagles||Top||17-10||Win||100||30 h 34 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF PLAY OF THE YEAR(Patriots -4)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Patriots on Sunday. For me it's automatic to take New England coming off a loss and an absolute no-brainer if they are coming off a bye. I expect a big bounce back effort from the Patriots defense. The big reason they struggled with Baltimore in their last game is there's just no defending an elite mobile quarterback like Lamar Jackson. Also, if coming off a loss and a bye wasn't enough to get you to take the Patriots, I got to believe NE wants some revenge against the Eagles after losing to them in the SB a couple years back, as this is the first meetings since that game. Pats are 16-5 ATS last 21 off a loss by 14 or more and 9-2 ATS last 11 on the road after a bye week. Give me New England -4!
|11-17-19||Texans v. Ravens -4||Top||7-41||Win||100||26 h 10 m||Show|
50* NFL AFC SHARP MONEY PLAY OF THE MONTH (Ravens -4)
I don't know that there's a team playing better than the Ravens right now and I while the Texans are coming off of their bye, I don't see Houston being able to keep pace with Lamar Jackson and that Baltimore offense. Keep in mind there's a little extra incentive for Jackson, who certainly hasn't forgot about that heartbreaking loss he suffered in college to Deshaun Watson and Clemson. He will be out to get his revenge on Sunday. Give me Baltimore -4!
|11-14-19||Steelers v. Browns OVER 41||Top||7-21||Loss||-110||11 h 30 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 41)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 41. I almost always lean to the OVER in these Thursday night games, as I just don’t think defenses can play up to their potential on just 3 days of rest. On top of that, I think we are getting a pretty decent number here with both of these teams coming off games in Week 10 where neither side scored 20 points.
Not only do I think both defenses will struggle with getting their bodies up to speed on just 3 days of rest, but I could see both defenses being a bit emotionally drained from really big games at home last week. No one was giving the Steelers a shot at beating the Rams at home and few believed in the Browns being able to beat the Bills. Both defenses had to give everything they had in those wins, which I think only adds to the likelihood that they struggle a bit on Thursday.
Also, history is on our side. Only once in the last 5 meetings have these two teams failed to reach 40 points. Last year they combined for 42 in Cleveland and 51 at Pittsburgh.
I think we could see Cleveland’s offense see an uptick in production now that Kareem Hunt is finally eligible. Hunt made his debut last week and rushed for 30 yards on just 4 attempts (7.5 yards/carry). He also had 7 receptions for 44 yards. Hunt was a difference maker with the Chiefs in his brief time in the league.
As for the Steelers offense, they are expected to get back running back James Conner, who has missed the last two weeks with a shoulder injury. Conner is a big upgrade over what the Steelers had to use without him. Give me the OVER 41!
|11-11-19||Seahawks v. 49ers -6||Top||27-24||Loss||-105||10 h 3 m||Show|
50* SEAHAWKS/49ERS MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (49ers -6)
I'll take my chances here with the 49ers winning by at least a touchdown at home against the Seahawks. I just think it's going to be really hard for Seattle to make a game out of this. Seahawks rely so much on Russell Wilson and their passing game and will be going up against an elite 49ers pass defense that is giving up just 139 ypg and 4.9 yards/attempt. It's not just the defense. San Francisco has a better offense than they get credit for and are averaging 35.3 ppg at home. 49ers will be out to make a statement on Monday Night Football. Give me SF -6!
|11-10-19||Rams -3.5 v. Steelers||Top||12-17||Loss||-117||25 h 24 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF GAME OF THE YEAR (Rams -3.5)
I give a lot of props to Pittsburgh and how they have continued to play hard, but I just think they are getting a little too much love here. The thing you have to keep in mind is that 3 of their 4 wins have come at home against the Bengals, Dolphins and Colts. Not to mention Indy lost their starting QB early in that game.
I just don’t think their offense is going to be able to keep up. Pittsburgh has struggled to effectively run the football and Rudolph hasn’t been that impressive. If they can’t run the ball, that’s a problem, because they won’t be able to play keepaway from the Rams offense. Nothing supports this more than the fact that the LA is a perfect 7-0 ATS under Sean McVay against teams who are averaging 90 or less rushing yards game.
The Rams just aren’t covering in this spot, they are destroying teams. Their average margin of victory is by 19.7 ppg (35.1 to 15.4).
Another thing is that you almost just have to back road favorites blindly when coming off a bye. Teams laying points on the road with 2 or more weeks of rest are 100-57 (64%) ATS dating back to 1983. Steelers are also just 2-5 ATS last 7 at home vs a team with a winning road record and Rams are 6-0 ATS last 6 on the road. Give me Los Angeles -3.5!
|11-10-19||Lions v. Bears -2.5||Top||13-20||Win||100||73 h 46 m||Show|
50* LIONS/BEARS NFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Bears -2.5)
The public perception couldn’t be much worse with Chicago right now and I think it’s created unbelievable value with the Bears laying less than a field goal at home. There’s no denying that Trubisky is not playing well, but I don’t think he can play any worse than he has. If anything, he’s due for a breakout performance.
One thing that I think gets overlooked with the Bears and most notably Trubisky’s poor start to the season, is the fact that Chicago has played a bunch of really good defensive teams. The only bad defense he’s faced in 2019 is the Redskins and he threw for 231 yards and 3 scores. Detroit’s defense has been holding them back all season and their secondary is 30th in the league, giving up 288.4 ypg.
Another thing that has quietly gone under the radar a bit in the Bears offensive struggles, is rookie running back David Montgomery is starting to get going. While he had just 40 yards against the Eagles, he scored twice and had a lot of nice runs in the 2nd half. The week before he had 135 yards against the Chargers. Lions run defense has allowed 165 or more yards in 3 of their last 4.
I think we see the Chicago offense come to life, while the Bears defense makes life difficult on Matt Stafford and the Lions offense. Detroit’s offense just hasn’t been the same since losing Kerryon Johnson to a season-ending injury. Stafford has played 30 games in his career against strong defensive teams that allow 15 to 21 ppg and has won just 6 times. Bears are 18-7 ATS last 25 at home off 3 straight losses and 22-8 ATS last 30 at home after two straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. Give me Chicago -2.5!
|11-07-19||Chargers -119 v. Raiders||Top||24-26||Loss||-119||11 h 57 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chargers -119)
I just feel like the price is too good to pass up with Los Angeles. Even though the Chargers are off such an impressive win, I still think we are getting some value on the line because of how bad they have been to this point. I also think it helps the Raiders come in off a big home win and cover.
Usually the home team has a big edge in these Thursday games, but it’s minimal travel here for the Chargers. You also have to factor in how LA has dominated the series with 4 straight wins.
You never want to overreact in the NFL, but I think it’s smart to try and get ahead of some things. There was just a different feel to that Chargers offense under Steichen. They hadn’t rushed for more than 40 yards in 4 straight games and finished with a season-high 159 yards in his first game calling the plays.
Not only that, Rivers carved up the Packers secondary and that’s a Green Bay defense that had really been impressive over the first half of the season. Now the Chargers get to carry over that confidence and momentum on offense against one of the league’s worst defenses.
As for LA’s defense, they haven’t been the problem this year. I think seeing the offense finally get going really lit a fire under this team and when the offense is getting first downs they are able to stay fresh and let their dominant front 7 go to work. If this defense can slow down the Raiders running game, this thing could get ugly. Give me the Chargers!
|11-04-19||Cowboys -6.5 v. Giants||Top||37-18||Win||100||11 h 31 m||Show|
50* COWBOYS/GIANTS MNF ATS NO-BRAINER (Cowboys -6.5)
I'll take my chances here with Dallas laying less than a touchdown against the Giants. These two teams played in Week 1 and the Cowboys rolled to a 35-17. They were really in complete control the whole way, leading 21-7 at the half and 35-10 going into the 4th quarter.
People are wanting to give the Giants a pass on that game because Eli Manning started, but it's not like he played bad. Manning was 30 or 44 with 306 yards and a TD (0 interceptions). How much more can the rookie Daniel Jones give them?
Dallas had that ugly 3-game losing streak before crushing the Eagles 37-10 in Week 7. They took that win into the bye and that extra time to prepare for this game is huge. Philadelphia has also rolled off 2 straight wins since they beat them and they need this game to stay in front of the NFC East.
Cowboys have only been outgained in 1 game this season and that was by 9 yards at New Orleans against the Saints in a 12-10 loss. In their loss to Green Bay they outgained the Packers by 228 yards. Giants defense is awful.
Dallas is 13-2 ATS Last 15 division games and have covered 5 straight against the Giants. New York is just 2-9-1 ATS last 12 at home. Give me the Cowboys -6.5!
|11-03-19||Bucs v. Seahawks OVER 52.5||Top||34-40||Win||100||30 h 58 m||Show|
50* NFC LATE AFTERNOON TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 52.5)
The OVER has cashed in each of the Bucs last 5 games and it’s pretty easy to see why with all the points they are giving up. Tampa Bay has allowed 30+ points in 5 of their 7 games this season.
I also don’t think this is an ideal spot for the defense to play well against an elite quarterback like Russell Wilson (TB 31st vs pass) and the fact that a lot of the Bucs players have to be running on fumes. Tampa Bay hasn’t played a home game since Week 3 (Sept. 22) as 4 of their last 5 have been true road games and the other was played in London.
As for Seattle’s defense, this is not the same vaunted Seahawks defense of years past. Seahawks are 27th against the pass and middle of the pack against the run. While the OVER is just 4-3 in their last 5, each of the last two games have barely stayed UNDER. They combined for 46 with a total of 48.5 against the Ravens and 47 with a total of 48.5 against the Falcons.
OVER is 15-5 in the Bucs last 20 road games and that includes a 9-2 OVER mark on the road with a total of 45.5 or more. OVER is also 11-2 in the Seahawks last 13 home games after a contest where they gave up 7 or more yards/play in their last game. Give me the OVER 52.5!
|11-03-19||Titans v. Panthers -3||Top||20-30||Win||100||27 h 8 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF PLAY OF THE MONTH (Panthers -3)
I just feel like this is the ideal spot to jump on the Panthers and I think we are getting a great price due to the fact that Carolina is off that ugly 51-13 loss at San Francisco and the Titans come in off back-to-back wins and covers.
First things first, the Panthers are the first team to get their butts kicked by the 49ers. Sure the offense only had 13 points and Kyle Allen played like crap, but San Francisco hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in any game this season. As for Allen and him throwing for just 158 yards with a 0-3 TD-INT ratio, that is not all that surprising against that defense. The 49ers have only given up 284 passing yards in their last 4 games combined.
Prior to that performance Allen had really been playing well. In the previous 4 games during the Panthers 4-game winning streak, he averaged 225 yards/game and posted a perfect 7-0 TD-INT ratio. Titans are just middle of the pack in passing defense and have allowed over 600 yards thru the air in their last two games.
Not only do I expect Allen to have a big bounce back performance, I think we get an unbelievable effort from the entire Panthers team. It’s so much easier to respond from a blowout loss than a game where you lose in the final seconds.
As for the Titans, I think this team is very fortunate to be 4-4. All 4 wins have come against teams who have losing records and own a combined 8-22 mark on the season. Last week they were outgained by the Bucs 389 to 246 and their only two TD drives in the first 3 quarters were off turnovers where the offense had to go 10 yards or less.
History is also on our side. Panthers are 23-6 under head coach Ron Rivera when off a road loss and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 under Rivera when off a road loss by 14 or more points. Give me Carolina -3!
|10-27-19||Packers -3.5 v. Chiefs||Top||31-24||Win||100||53 h 60 m||Show|
50* NFL PRIME TIME GAME OF THE YEAR (Packers -3.5)
I believe the drop-off from Mahomes to backup Matt Moore is significant. Moore finished with 117 yards in relief of Mahomes against the Broncos, but it wasn’t pretty for the most part. Take out the 57-yard pass to Tyreek Hill and the offense did next to nothing with him under center.
The only other scoring drives under Moore was his first series when he took over with a 1st & Goal from the 3 and had to settle for a field goal. The other came on a field goal after Denver went for it and failed on 4th down.
Green Bay’s defense is better than they showed last week against the Raiders and I expect a max effort from them in a prime time game. I just don’t see the Chiefs’ offense being able to do enough to give them a shot at winning this game or keeping it close.
As for Kansas City’s defense, I’m not reading anything into that performance against the Broncos. I don’t know what Denver is doing with Joe Flacco at quarterback, but it looks like he doesn’t want to be there and that offensive line is trash.
Based off what we have seen from this defense prior that game, I would be absolutely shocked if the Packers didn’t march the ball up and down the field. Keep in mind with KC’s offense likely limited, they should be getting pretty good field position throughout. Give me the Packers -3.5!
|10-27-19||Eagles v. Bills -120||Top||31-13||Loss||-120||25 h 55 m||Show|
50* NFL MONEY LINE PLAY OF THE MONTH (Bills -120)
I actually think there’s quite a bit of value with the Bills laying less than a field goal at home. The Eagles are a big public team, being just a couple years removed from winning the Super Bowl. Buffalo on the other hand is not a team the public likes to back, as they just really struggle to get behind teams that win with defense.
I just don’t know what more you need to see from the Eagles to realize they are a mediocre football team. They just laid an egg in the biggest game of their season to date and did so in a nationally televised prime time game. The week before they lost by 18 to Minnesota and were down 24-3 early in that one. They also got a home loss to the Lions and defeat at Atlanta. Not to mention they had to rally from a 20-7 halftime deficit at home in Week 1 to an awful Redskins team.
They got a big win at Green Bay, but that was a Thursday Night Game where anything goes on just 3-days of rest. Their only other win is against a Jets team that was down to their 3rd string quarterback.
Buffalo is no joke. I think people are reading too much into a sloppy win against the Dolphins, because of how bad Miami is perceived to be. The important thing is they played poorly and still won. I also think people want to knock the Bills because their 5 wins have come against teams who are a combined 6-27.
I get it, but for me it’s all about how well this team played in their only loss. Buffalo fell 16-10 at home to the Patriots and should have won. They outgained New England 375 to 224 and had 23 first downs to the Patriots 11 (only lost by 6 despite a -3 turnover differential).
Another massive factor here that I feel is getting overlooked is the the fact that the Eagles are playing their 3rd straight road game. Buffalo is also not a fun or easy place to play for opposing teams. Give me the Bills -1.5!
|10-24-19||Redskins v. Vikings OVER 42||Top||9-19||Loss||-104||46 h 59 m||Show|
50* REDSKINS/VIKINGS TNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 42)
I know the Redskins offense is hard to trust, but it’s not asking a lot for these two to get to 43 with both these defenses playing on 3 days rest.
It’s not out of the question that Minnesota could eclipse this total on their own. Vikings are playing with a ton of confidence on the offensive side of the ball and who knows how much resistance the Redskins defense will put up.
You can’t read anything into Washington holding the 49ers to 9-points with those conditions and the only other teams they have held under 30 points this season are the Dolphins and Giants. I would be shocked if Minnesota had anything fewer than 30 points in this game.
I’m going to count on Washington getting to at least 14 and I think they could get a few more. Minnesota’s defense has been slipping of late and with the way the offense figures to be moving the ball, they might not be 100% locked in. They also might call off the dogs if they do get up big, as they got a big game at KC on deck.
OVER is 9-2 in the Redskins last 11 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 7-1 in their last 8 games played on a Thursday. OVER is also 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Minnesota. Take the OVER!
|10-21-19||Patriots -9 v. Jets||Top||33-0||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
50* PATRIOTS/JETS MNF VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Patriots -9)
I'm rolling the dice with the Patriots. I think the big number and some injuries to the Patriots receiving corps has people thinking about taking the Jets, especially after New York just upset Dallas as a 7-point home dog last week.
I just feel the combination of MNF and people talking about how the Jets can win this game will have NE 100% locked in. I get the Pats are thin at receiver, but it doesn't matter with Tom Brady. If any team is dealing with injuries that should concern you, it's New York. Jets got 4 of their 5 starting linemen either out or question, as well as backup Kelechi Osemele. Same thing on the defensive line, where two more starters are questionable or out. They also got a ton of injuries at linebacker.
Patriots have gone 7-3-1 ATS last 11 on Monday Night Football are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 vs a team with a losing record and a ridiculous 40-15-2 in the month of October. Give me New England -9!
|10-20-19||Texans v. Colts -108||Top||23-30||Win||100||26 h 27 m||Show|
50* TEXANS/COLTS AFC SOUTH PLAY OF THE MONTH (Colts -108)
Even though a win here would propel Indy into first place in the AFC South and both teams are coming off a win against the Chiefs, I feel the public perception is that Houston is the better team. A big reason for that is the Texans got a big name quarterback in Deshaun Watson and the Colts are one of those teams that just don't wow you because they rely on their defense and run game.
I'll cover the most obvious factor favoring the Colts right away and that's Indianapolis coming off their bye. It's a huge advantage, especially this deep into the season and I just don't feel the public factors it enough into their handicapping. Not only does Indianapolis get an extra week to prepare for this matchup, this a definite letdown spot for Houston off the big win against the Chiefs and playing their second straight on the road.
Another thing here is Watson and the Texans offense has looked great the last two weeks, putting up 53 on the Falcons and 31 against the Chiefs. The thing is, both of those teams rank in the bottom 10 in total defense. Keep in mind prior to facing those two bad defenses they managed just 10 points and 264 total yards at home against the Panthers. They also had a game against a good Jags defense earlier in the year where they scored just 13 points with 263 total yards.
The Colts aren't elite defensively, but I definitely feel like they are one of the stronger teams on that side of the ball. You don't hold Patrick Mahomes and that Chiefs offense to just 13 points in KC without being strong on that side of the ball. Indianapolis was really able to get pressure on Mahomes and play great man-to-man defense.
It's no secret the Texans offensive line is sub-par at best. Houston has only played 6 games and Watson has already been sacked 18 times. Watson, like Mahomes, also has really poor numbers against teams that can play quality man-to-man defense.Colts are also getting back one of their best defensive players in All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard, who has missed the last 3 games in concussion protocol.Let's also not overlook how well the Colts played against Houston last year. They beat them twice and their lone loss was in overtime. They also won the most important game, taking out the Texans 21-7 on the road. Led 21-0 in the 4th quarter in that playoff win and outgained Houston by 100 yards.
Going back to last season the Colts are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs a team with a winning record and are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 off a bye. Texans are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Give me the Colts -1!
|10-20-19||Raiders v. Packers UNDER 47||Top||24-42||Loss||-110||26 h 1 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 47)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 47 in Sunday's showdown between the Raiders and Packers. I think this is going to be an ugly game the whole way. Green Bay is out star wide out Davante Adams and may be without both Allison and Valdes-Scantling. Problem is the Packers likely will need to be able to throw, as the Raiders have held 4 of their first 5 opponents under 100 yards rushing. They also have only allowed more than 255 passing once this season and that was to Mahomes and a healthy KC offense.
Oakland's defense is better than people give them credit for, plus they should be extra sharp on that side coming off a bye. As for the Packers defense, it's really what has saved this team. Green Bay has really improved on that side of the ball and we have seen this Oakland offense struggle to get going when up against better defensive teams. I don't see this turning into a shootout. BET THE UNDER 47!
|10-17-19||Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 48.5||Top||30-6||Loss||-110||9 h 18 m||Show|
50* CHIEFS/BRONCOS TNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 48.5)
It’s really hard for the books to set the number on the total high enough in these Thursday games. It’s hard for these players to bounce back from just 3-days of rest and it tends to have a bigger impact on the defenses ability to perform up to expectations.
The Chiefs offense welcomed back arguably their best weapon in wide out Tyreek Hill last week and he led the way with 5 catches for 80 yards and two scores.
I think the Broncos will have a tough time here keeping Mahomes and this Chiefs offense in check. At the same time, there’s little reason to think the Kansas City defense is going to play well in this game. They are down nose tackle Xavier Williams, defensive linemen Chris Jones and corner Kendall Fuller.
As bad as the Broncos offense has been, this is a team they can have success against. I also think it’s important to note that Denver’s offense has faced a lot of good defenses. Outside of their two division games against Oakland and Los Angeles, they have had to go up against the Bears, Jaguars, Packers and Titans. All of those teams rank in the top half of the league in scoring defense.
You also got to look at the last three meetings in the series, all of which have come with Mahomes as the starter for KC. Each of those games saw at least 50 combined points.
OVER is 17-5 in the Chiefs last 22 road games, 7-2 in their last 9 off a game they failed to cover, 4-1 in their last 5 off a SU loss and 5-1 in their last 6 on Thursday. Take the OVER!
Bonus Prop Bet: Philip Lindsay OVER 72.5 (-110) Rushing Yards
|10-14-19||Lions +4 v. Packers||Top||22-23||Win||100||9 h 52 m||Show|
50* NFL GB vs DET MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL TOP PLAY (Lions +4)
I'll take my chances here with Detroit cashing in as a 4-point dog. Lions aren't getting enough love here coming off their bye week. Detroit has had Green Bay's number of late. Packers offense has not been very good and will be without star wide out Devante Adams. Green Bay's defense has been solid, but they have struggled against teams with decent quarterbacks. They gave over 440 yards passing last week to Dallas. I like Patricia and the Lions to win this outright. Give me Detroit +4!
|10-13-19||Texans v. Chiefs -4||Top||31-24||Loss||-119||93 h 58 m||Show|
50* TEXANS/CHIEFS AFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Chiefs -4)
I think we are seeing a big overreaction here with last week’s loss at home to the Colts. If LeSean McCoy doesn’t fumble that ball deep in Indy territory midway through the 2nd quarter, KC was prime to take a 7-point lead and it would have been a lot different game with the Colts playing from behind.
I would have loved to see the Chiefs run the table, but I believe losing a game like that will work in their favor. Great teams and great players respond to adversity in a big way and I think we see a much more focused Kansas City team on Sunday.
I know there’s a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball for the Chiefs, but as long as No. 15 is behind center, it really doesn’t matter who is lined up around him. He’s going to make plays. There’s a good chance he gets back arguably the best weapon in the league outside of maybe Christian McCaffrey in wide out Tyreek Hill.
Also, one of the reasons the Colts had so much success against the Chiefs is their ability to play man defense. I don’t think the Texans pose near the threat on the defensive side of the ball. Back with Alex Smith, Reid’s offense always seemed to give Houston problems. Considering they went 22 straight games scoring at least 26 before the 13-point effort against the Colts, I’m confident they put up a big number in this one.
As for the defense and how will KC be able to stop Deshaun Watson and the Texans offense, I think they will look a lot better than they did against the Colts. Keep in mind Indy has a really good offensive line and was able to just run the ball at will. Texans aren’t near as good up front on the 0-line.
Another thing. Everyone is singing the praises of the Texans after their 21-point win over the Falcons, but keep in mind Atlanta actually had a 17-16 lead at the half and it was a 8-point game with less than 2 minutes to play.
Houston did finish with a 592 to 373 edge in total yards, but are 0-6 ATS under head coach Bill O’Brien after outgaining their previous opponent by 150 or more yards. Texans are also 0-7 ATS under O’Brien in games vs teams who average 29 or more points/game. Chiefs are 9-3 ATS last 12 after scoring 15 or fewer points and 10-4 ATS last 14 as a home favorite of 7-points or less. Give me KC -4!
|10-13-19||Seahawks v. Browns +1.5||Top||32-28||Loss||-110||24 h 32 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF PLAY OF THE MONTH (Browns +1.5)
I'll take my chances here with Cleveland as a home dog against the Seahawks. For starters, you got Seattle going west to east for an early start time, which is never easy. Seattle already did that once in Week 2 at Pittsburgh and were fortunate to beat the Steelers 28-26 and they didn't have Big Ben.
I also feel the Seahawks are overvalued coming off that 30-29 win at home against the Rams. They won that on a late TD after trailing the entire most of the 2nd half. They also had an ugly 21-20 win at home against the Bengals in Week 1 and lost at home to the Saints minus Drew Brees.
I know Cleveland just got embarrassed by the 49ers, but because that was on MNF they are even more undervalued. With Seattle likely down two offensive linemen and the Browns having a strong defensive front, I think it's going to be really hard for Russell Wilson and that Seahawks offense to move the ball.
At 2-3 and a road game at New England on deck, we know we are getting the best from Cleveland on Sunday. Give me the Browns +1.5!
|10-10-19||Giants v. Patriots OVER 41||Top||14-35||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
50* GIANTS/PATRIOTS TNF VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 41)
New York will be down their top two running backs, as well as wideout Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram. Plus, we just saw Jones and the Giants do next to nothing against a good Minnesota defense and the Patriots defense has looked outstanding early on.
You just can’t expect teams to play up to their full potential on the defensive side of the ball when they only get 3 days of rest. Look at how good the Packers defense played in Week 1-3 (allowed a combined 35 points), how they struggled in Week 4 on Thursday Night Football (allowed 34 points) and then how good they played against Dallas last week.
I know Belichick has owned rookie quarterbacks and all that, but I think with Jones at quarterback they can put up at least 10-14 points and that’s on the low end of things.
At the same, I could see New England going over the total on their own. The Giants defense is awful. They let Kirk Cousins, who had been awful up to this point, throw for 306 yards and 2 scores while completing 82% of his passes. They are giving up 9.1 yards per pass play. They got no chance of slowing down Tom Brady and that Patriots offense. I think the Pats could play poorly and still score 30+ points.
The other thing is that with the Giants decimated at the running back position and them likely playing from behind early, New York is going to be forced to throw a lot. Add in Belichick’s ability to confuse rookie QB’s and it would shock me if the Giants didn’t have multiple turnovers in this game. That should lead to easy quick scores for NE. Give me the OVER 41!
|10-07-19||Browns v. 49ers -4.5||Top||3-31||Win||100||10 h 2 m||Show|
50* BROWNS/49ers MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (49ers -4.5)
I'll take my chances here with San Francisco at home against the Browns on Monday Night Football. I'm just not buying too much into Cleveland's 40-25 win at Baltimore last week. That Ravens defense is not as good as people think. I think the key to the Browns offense going off in that game against Baltimore was due to their ability to get the running game going. I don't think they will be able to have the same kind of success on the ground against a really good 49ers front. SF is giving up just 75 ypg and 3.4 yards/carry against the run. 49ers offense still put up 24 points despite 5 turnovers against the Steelers. Not to mention SF is coming off a bye, which is a huge advantage to them. Give me the 49ers -4.5!
|10-06-19||Packers v. Cowboys UNDER 47||Top||34-24||Loss||-109||88 h 4 m||Show|
50* NFC OVER/UNDER TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 47)
I'm expecting an ugly low-scoring affair in Sunday's big matchup between the Cowboys and Packers. I think both of these teams are a lot better defensively than people realize and a bit limited on the offensive side of the ball. Cowboys offense was awful against New Orleans. They had just 45 rushing yards and 212 thru the air. Packers defense gave up a lot last week to the Eagles, but that was largely due to it being played on Thursday and the defensive guys just not having enough time to recover. Give me the UNDER 47!
|10-06-19||Bills v. Titans -2||Top||14-7||Loss||-110||94 h 38 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Titans -2)
These are two very similar teams, in terms of both want to grind out wins behind a strong running game and defense. I would much rather take the home team in a matchup like this. I just don’t trust bad offenses on the road, especially against a good defense.
On top of that, we don’t even know if the Bills will have their starting quarterback for this game. Allen is questionable with a concussion and if he can’t go Matt Barkley would be the starter. Even if Allen plays I think Buffalo’s offense struggles, but I give the Bills no shot without him.
I also feel like this is the ideal spot to fade Buffalo. I think the Bills gained a lot of respect from the public in their loss to New England and rightfully so, but what people are overlooking is how difficult it can be for a team like Buffalo that relies so much on effort and energy to bounce back from a game like that. New England is the one team they want to beat going into the year and they have to feel like they gave the game away. Bills had 4 turnovers and had a punt blocked for a score. You outgain a team 375 to 224 and have 23 to 11 edge in first downs, you should win the game.
Another thing is that while Buffalo is a great defensive team, their strength is stopping the pass. They were No. 1 against the pass last year and are currently No. 4. The run defense is solid, but they are allowing 4.1 yards/carry on the season and giving up 4.8 yards/carry on the road. Titans clearly want to establish the run with Derrick Henry. Give me the Titans -2!
|10-03-19||Rams v. Seahawks OVER 49||Top||29-30||Win||100||20 h 1 m||Show|
50* RAMS/SEAHAWKS TNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 49)
My early lean here would be to take the OVER 49. I just don’t know if Seattle is as good as we think and I’m not about to take LA in a pick’em on the road with 3 days of rest. I just think given how defenses have struggled to perform in these Thursday games, that’s where the value is.
Clearly there are some holes in the Rams defense, especially against the pass. Jameis Winston completed 28 of 41 for 385 yards and 4 scores last week. They let Chris Godwin haul in 12 catches for 172 yards and 2 scores. Russell Wilson only threw for 240 last week, but that’s because they were up big early. He had 406 the previous week against the Saints and 300 the week before at Pittsburgh. I think he’s going to have a big day throwing the ball.
As for the Rams offense, I really think that outburst by them was a big positive in the loss to Tampa last week. That was the first time all year they looked anything like the offense from 2018. Seattle’s defense has been decent, but they have also faced Andy Dalton, Mason Rudolph, Teddy Bridgewater and Kyler Murray.
You also have to take into account the recent meetings between these two have all been high-scoring. Both meetings last year saw at least 64 combined points.
Over is 10-3 in Seahawks last 13 games overall, including 8-2 in their last 10 at home vs a team with a winning road record. OVER 7-3 in the Rams last 10 after giving up 30 or more points and 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 30 or more. Give me the OVER 49!
|09-30-19||Bengals v. Steelers -3||Top||3-27||Win||100||9 h 22 m||Show|
50* STEELERS/BENGALS MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (on Steelers -3)
I'll take my chances here with the Steelers laying just a field goal at home against the Bengals. This just too good a price to pass up with Pittsburgh in a prime time game home. Mason Rudolph is going to be better than he was last week against the 49ers. Bengals don't have near the talent on the defensive side of the ball and are really thin up front on the d-line.
I definitely don't trust Andy Dalton in big games. He's still without his best weapon in A.J. Green and now must go without starting left tackle Cordy Glenn. If the Bills weren't so anemic offensively they would have lost by a lot more last week. I wouldn't be shocked at all if this turned into a blowout. Give me the Steelers -3!
|09-29-19||Redskins +3 v. Giants||Top||3-24||Loss||-100||42 h 36 m||Show|
50* NFC EAST PLAY OF THE MONTH (Redskins +3)
I'll take my chances here with Washington as a small road dog against the Giants. The public can't get enough of Daniel Jones right now and I think it has NY overvalued. Sure he played great in the win against TB last week, but they lost their best player in Saquan Barkley. Washington will be able to gameplan more for Jones, as they won't have to respect the run as much. I also think the Redskins are the better team despite the worse record. Giants defense is awful and I think Washington will have no problem moving the ball. I don't think it will be as easy for NY's offense. Give me the Redskins +3!
|09-29-19||Chargers -14 v. Dolphins||Top||30-10||Win||100||41 h 25 m||Show|
50* NFL PUBLIC BLOWOUT PLAY OF THE MONTH (Chargers -14)
I'll take my chances with Los Angeles laying only 14 against the Dolphins. Unless I missed something, Miami still wants absolutely nothing to do with winning games this season. They are off to a historically bad start and I don't think it's a fluke at all. There is no talent on this team. They have scored 16 points in 3 games and allowed 133. I get the Chargers are banged up, but they got enough talent on defense to keep Miami off the scoreboard and Rivers is playing QB. Give me Los Angeles -14!
|09-26-19||Eagles v. Packers OVER 46||Top||34-27||Win||100||10 h 31 m||Show|
50* EAGLES/PACKERS TNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 46)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 46. Even though we haven’t seen a ton of scoring early on in these Thursday Night matchups, I still think there’s some value to be had on that side of the total in these games played on just 3 days of rest.
I think one of the big focal points coming into this game will be how good the Green Bay defense has played. I’m not about to say the Packers defense hasn’t been good, but I also don’t think it’s as good as some might think. Let’s not overlook the fact that the 3 quarterbacks Green Bay has faced are Mitch Trubisky, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco. I think we all would take Carson Wentz over any of those 3 starters.
Another thing to note is that while Green Bay has not allowed a lot of points, teams are running the ball effectively on them. Packers are allowing 131 ypg and 4.9 yards/carry against the run.
As for the Eagles defense, they have done an outstanding job against the run, but have had their problems against the pass. Philadelphia is only allowing 57 yards/game and 2.9 yards/carry against the run, but allowing 294 passing yards/game and 7.4 yards/pass attempt. I know Rodgers hasn’t been lighting it up, but I could see him going off in this prime time matchup.
OVER is 16-5 in the Packers last 21 vs a team with a losing record. OVER is also 35-17 in the Eagles last 52 off a straight up loss and 4-1 in their last 5 games played on Thursday.
OVER is 40-16 (71%) the last 10 seasons when you have a home team playing in the month of September that has covered the spread in each of their last two games. Take the OVER!
|09-23-19||Bears -5 v. Redskins||Top||31-15||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
50* BEARS/REDSKINS MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Bears -5)
I'll take my chances here with Chicago covering the spread as a 5-point road favorite against the Redskins. Usually I would be tempted to take the home dog on MNF, but I don't like this Redskins team at all right now. Washington just doesn't have the playmakers on offense or the talent on defense to be all that competitive, especially with all the guys they are missing right now. Bears offense has struggled, but the defense has been great. I think Chicago's defense dominates this matchup and we finally see Tribusky and the offense get going. Give me the Bears -5!
|09-22-19||Ravens v. Chiefs -6.5||Top||28-33||Loss||-109||110 h 47 m||Show|
50* NFL WK 3 VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chiefs -6.5)
I'll take my chances here with Kansas City winning by at least at TD at home against the Ravens. The public has really fallen into the Lamar Jackson hype and we saw that with how many people looked to back them last week as a double-digit favorite against the Cardinals. To me this line is begging the public to take Baltimore, which only makes me like Kansas City more.
I get the love for Jackson. He's putting up crazy numbers, but unlike a lot of people I'm not completely on board with him as a pocket passer. His huge stateline from Week 1, where he threw for 324 yards and 5 touchdowns is going to look a lot less impressive the more beatings the Dolphins take. Miami is as bad a team as I can remember. They have officially brought tanking to the NFL.
There's nothing wrong with throwing for 272 yards and 2 scores, but Matt Stafford had 385 and 3 scores against the Cardinals in Week 1. Not to mention they only managed to score 23 points with Jackson throwing for 272 and rushing for 120.
Last year Jackson only threw for 147 yards against a Chiefs defense that was arguably the worst in the league. He also only had 67 rushing yards on 14 attempts.
This Chiefs defense isn't elite by any means, but I definitely think it's improved over last year. More than anything, you have to factor in how much better their defense tends to play at home compared to on the road. The atmosphere at Arrowhead is going to be electric with this being their home opener and how excited everyone is about this team.
I think they can contain the Ravens offense and we know we are going to get a big game from Mahomes. I don't care what the Baltimore defense did in Week 1 against the Dolphins. I'm focused on rookie Kyler Murray torching that secondary for 349 yards. Ravens defense is not as good as it was a year ago. They added Earl Thomas, but they lost Terrell Suggs, C.J. Mosley, Eric Weddle, and Za'Darius Smith. They are already down starting corner Jimmy Smith and backup corner Tavon Young.
One thing I've really been impressed with Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid is how they are able to adjust what teams are doing against them. I think playing against this Don Martindale defense last year will definitely work in their favor. Give me the Chiefs -6.5.
|09-22-19||Bengals v. Bills -6||Top||17-21||Loss||-101||110 h 34 m||Show|
50* AFC SHARP MONEY GAME OF THE YEAR (Bills -6)
I'll take my chances here with the Bills winning by at least a touchdown at home. I played against Cincinnati last week in my biggest play of Week 2 and cashed in an easy winner as the 49ers won 41-17 as a mere 1-point home favorite.
I'm not about to sit here and tell you Buffalo is a great team, but I love this matchup. Bengals offensive line has shown me nothing. Dalton has been under a ton of pressure and they had just 34 rushing yards in Week 1 and 25 in Week 2. All their damage has come via the passing game. Bills had the No. 1 ranked pass defense last year and look every bit as good on that side this year.
Bengals won't be able to score and while the Bills aren't an offensive juggernaut, they likely need to hit around 24 to cash in a cover. I could see them scoring even more with a few big turnovers. Give me Buffalo -6!
|09-19-19||Titans v. Jaguars +2||Top||7-20||Win||100||21 h 5 m||Show|
50* NFL TITANS/JAGS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Jaguars +2)
I was against Jacksonville in Week 1 at home against the Chiefs and was all over them as a 9-point dog in Week 2. Given how big an advantage it is for the home team in these Thursday games on short rest, I would actually have Jacksonville favored here.
Two big reasons why I like the Jaguars last week against Houston, is I was confident Jacksonville’s defense was way better than it looked against the Chiefs (Mahomes will make any defense out there look bad) and I liked what I saw from rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew.
While the concerns over the defense aren’t likely there, I still think people will be scared to back Minshew against a strong Titans defense. It’s not easy for any unit playing on just 3 days of rest, but I think it’s really hard on the road team to play well defensively in these games.
There’s also nothing about the Tennessee offense that gets me excited. They are as conservative as anyone with all the running and short passes they use. A lot of people will point to the 43 points they scored at Cleveland in Week 1, but I don’t think that Brown’s defenses is as good as people think and the Titans only had 15 points with less than 2 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter.
Titans are not the team you want to be taking in this spot, as they are just 16-34-3 in their last 53 vs a team with a losing record. They are also just 4-12-1 ATS last 17 on the road vs a team with a losing home record.
I know it’s early, but there’s a big difference in the locker room for teams that are 1-1 and teams that are 0-2. Jacksonville will be treating this like there season is on the line. Give me the Jags +2!
|09-16-19||Browns -6.5 v. Jets||Top||23-3||Win||100||9 h 8 m||Show|
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Browns -6.5)
I maybe could have got to taking New York as a small home dog with Darnold, but no way am I putting my money on Trevor Siemian. Going back to 2016, out of all the quarterbacks with a 1,000 plays, he’s got the worst QBR out of all of them at 42.1. Just slightly ahead of Brock Osweiler at 46.1, Eli Manning at 47 and Blake Bortles at 48.6.
I think the Browns defense is going to make it really difficult on this Jets offense with Siemen under center. I have to think they are going to load the box to keep Bell in check and dare him to make plays down the field.
I also think Cleveland’s defense is a lot better than people might be thinking after they gave up 43 points to the Titans. That was a 15-13 game in the 3rd quarter before Tennessee’s Derrick Henry caught a 75-yard TD pass. Browns started pressing and gave up 21 points in the 4th.
As for Cleveland’s offense, the biggest thing people need to realize with that poor showing is they were going up against a really good Titans defense. Tennessee ranked 8th in total defense and 3rd in scoring defense. They were also 6th in the league vs the pass. I think the Browns thought it was going to be a lot easier than it turned out to be.
I think this is a good spot for the Browns offense to get back on track. I wouldn’t read anything into the Jets strong defensive game against the Bills. Buffalo’s offense looks to be every bit as anemic as it was in 2018. Jets defense should be improved, but you have to wonder how they can hold up with an offense that figures to struggle to score. Give me the Browns -6.5.
|09-15-19||Saints v. Rams -2.5||Top||9-27||Win||100||90 h 52 m||Show|
50* NFL RAMS/SAINTS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Rams -2.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Rams laying a short number at home against the Saints. I just don't get why there isn't more hype around this Rams team. Even after going on the road and getting a win at Carolina, which is not easy to do, people still aren't talking about this team like they were a year ago.
I love that, as it keeps the Rams focused on the task at hand. There's gonna be a ton of talk leading up to this game about the non-call on PI in the NFC Championship Game. I think LA will be sick of hearing how they should have lost and they make a statement here.
Let's not forget the Saints are coming off a emotional roller-coaster in their win on Monday Night Football against the Texans. They got 1 less day of prep and a long way to travel. I think they struggle to keep pace with the Rams on Sunday. Give me Los Angeles -2.5!
|09-15-19||49ers +2.5 v. Bengals||Top||41-17||Win||100||86 h 30 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF PLAY OF THE YEAR (49ers +2.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the 49ers. I was really high on this San Francisco team coming into the year and really wasn’t expecting much of the Bengals, especially early on without star wideout A.J. Green. I think we are getting a gift here with the 49ers as a dog.
I’m not sold on the Bengals offense. It looks nice to have a quarterback throw for 400+ yards, but part of that was Cincinnati having no choice but to throw with how their running game was struggling. Bengals only had 34 rushing yards on 14 attempts, which is 2.4 yards/carry. The other stat that jumps out to me is that Seattle sacked Dalton 5 times.
When you can't run the ball and give up a bunch of sacks, that tells me there’s some problems up front on the offensive line. Also, when you can’t run it makes it really tough in the red zone. Note that both of the Bengals TD’s came on long passes and one was on a flea-flicker and the other came via a bad play by the defender.
While the offense wasn’t great in the opener, the 49ers defense played great. They made life a living hell for Tampa quarterback Jameis Winston. Not only did they intercept him twice, they sacked him 3 times made several more plays in the backfield. San Francisco has a ton of 1st round picks in their front seven, so I don’t think that performance was a fluke.
As for the 49ers offense, they did left some plays out there they should have had. I think the offense is actually helping us here. They certainly wouldn’t be a dog if the offense had played better. I still like the talent on that side of the ball and expect them to bounce back with a big game here. Give me the 49ers +2.5!
|09-12-19||Bucs v. Panthers -6.5||Top||20-14||Loss||-110||45 h 12 m||Show|
50* NFL BUCS/PANTHERS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Panthers -6.5)
I know this might seem like a big number, but I would still take my chances with the home team laying less than a touchdown on Thursday Night Football. There’s such a huge advantage, even this early in the season, for the team that gets to host these games on just 3 days of rest.
I also just feel like the Panthers are the better team and there might be some overreaction to them losing at home to the Rams. More so with how the offense struggled to get anything going. Los Angeles has a pretty darn good defense.
I also am not reading too much into the Bucs strong defensive showing against the 49ers. San Francisco was really sloppy on offense and left a lot of points out there. Defense is also the unit that seems to have the most problems with playing up to their potential in these Thursday games.
While I’m not a huge Cam Newton fan, especially if he doesn’t run as much, I like him a lot more than Winston. He just isn’t good under pressure and Carolina has a really strong defensive front. Panthers did a really good job of limiting Jared Goff and the Rams passing attack. Goff had just 186 yards on 39 attempts (4.8 yards/attempt). I could see this spiraling out of control for TB if they fall behind and have to throw the ball a lot.
Panthers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games after giving up 30 or more points in their previous game. Bucs on the other hand have gone just 1-5 ATS last 6 after giving up 30 or more and are 0-5 ATS last 5 games played on Thursday. Give me the Panthers -6.5.
|09-09-19||Texans v. Saints OVER 52||Top||28-30||Win||100||9 h 45 m||Show|
50* NFL SAINTS/TEXANS MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 52)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 52 in this one. This thing has shootout written all over it. Houston's defense won't be as strong without Clowney and there's just no slowing down Drew Brees and that Saints offense at home. Keep in mind Texans ranked 28th against the pass last year and got a lot of new faces on that side of the ball. Even bigger thing here is I think Houston's offense will be potent in 2019. DeShaun Watson quietly had a great 2018 season and that was behind an awful offensive line. In losing Clowney they got a big upgrade in left tackle Laremy Tunsil. They used a 1st and 2nd round pick on offensive linemen. Saints defense ranked 29th vs the pass last year. Give me the OVER 52!
|09-08-19||Lions v. Cardinals +3||Top||27-27||Win||100||18 h 19 m||Show|
50* NFL WEEK 1 SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Cardinals +3)
I'll take my chances here with Arizona. I'm fully on board the Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray bandwagon. I think Arizona's offense is going to have a similar jump in production to when McVay took over that awful Rams offense a couple years back. As for the defense, they are better on that side than people realize. I absolutely loved the addition of linebacker Terrell Suggs. He's still a top tier player in this league, but it's his leadership that will really help the other guys on defense. Give me the Cardinals +3!
|09-08-19||Chiefs -3 v. Jaguars||Top||40-26||Win||100||15 h 58 m||Show|
50* CHIEFS/JAGS AFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Chiefs -3)
I'll gladly back the Chiefs at -3 on the road against the Jags. It will be hard for me to not take KC laying less than a touchdown this season. I just think this is the best team in the league and that's factoring in AB going to NE. There's no stopping this Chiefs offense unless they get ravaged by injuries. I think the big thing holding people back is their defense was really bad last year. I think it's going to be really improved, especially against the run, which is what the Jags want to do offensively. GIve me the Chiefs -3!
|09-05-19||Packers v. Bears -3||Top||10-3||Loss||-110||261 h 3 m||Show|
50* NFL PACKERS/BEARS NFC NORTH PLAY OF THE YEAR (Bears -3)
I just think this is too good a price to pass up with the Bears at home. There’s a lot of really good teams in the NFC, but you could definitely make an argument for the Bears to be the team to beat.
I think Green Bay can sometimes get classed in the upper-tier of the NFC when they shouldn’t and that’s just simply the respect people have for Aaron Rodgers. As long as he’s healthy this team will be a contender, but winning on the road against a team like Chicago in a prime time game is asking a lot.
I get a change needed to be made, I’m just not convinced LaFleur is the answer. I mean it took this guy 3/4 the season last year to figure out that the Titans should be running their offense thru Derrick Henry. There’s also already some rumblings that LaFleur and Rodgers aren’t quite on the same page.
I also think Green Bay has done a poor job both with the offensive line and getting in the type of playmakers that can make a difference. People forget how much better Rodgers makes receivers look than they actually are. I just don’t see this offense being able to sustain drives against this Bears defense.
On the flip side of this, Green Bay’s defense doesn’t exactly wow you on paper. Packers ranked 18th in total defense and 22nd in scoring defense last year. Bears offense is better than it gets credit for. Keep in mind they installed a whole new offense just last year when they hired Nagy to be their head coach. They should be a lot more familiar with the offense and that should lead to better results. Give me the Bears -3.
|02-03-19||Patriots v. Rams +3||Top||13-3||Loss||-110||53 h 36 m||Show|
50* SUPER BOWL 53 VEGAS TOP PLAY (Rams +3)
I just think because of the Patriots track record we are seeing people do a complete 180 with this team. A lot of people were on the Chiefs to take down the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. I think those same people who bet against New England are backing the Patriots this time around.
It certainly seems to be that way based on the early numbers, as I'm showing close to 65% of the action coming in on New England. If I've learned anything, you don't want to be on that popular side for the big game. In fact, the underdog has covered the Super Bowl in 8 of the last 10. Two of the favorites to cover were the Patriots, but both were a bit lucky. New England won 28-24 back in Super Bowl 49 over Seattle on that interception on the goal line. The other was that crazy comeback against the Falcons in Super Bowl 51, where they covered as a 3-point favorite in overtime.
In terms of experience and long-term accomplishments, the edge goes to the Patriots, but as far as this game is concerned, I think the Rams are the better team. Keep in mind we have seen two young offensive minded guys really give New England trouble the last two Super Bowls. Two years ago it was Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and last year it was Doug Pederson with the Eagles. This time it's Sean McVay of the Rams, who I think is the cream of the crop right now in terms of a young offensive minded coaches in the NFL.
I think McVay is going to learn a lot with how New England tried to slow down the Chiefs offense and will focus on the adjustments that Kansas City made in the 2nd half. I just feel really confident that the Rams will be able to score.
What makes me really like Los Angeles is their defense. Most notably their dynamic defensive tackle duo of Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh. As we saw with the Chiefs, having great outside pass rushers doesn't do ya whole lot against Brady and that dink and dunk Patriots offense. To disrupt that offense you need to be able to bring pressure up the middle. I think they do just that and will make enough plays to get the win. Give me the Rams +3!
|01-20-19||Patriots v. Chiefs -3||Top||37-31||Loss||-110||50 h 18 m||Show|
50* CHIEFS/PATRIOTS AFC CHAMPIONSHIP TOP PLAY (Chiefs -3)
I just think this one comes down to homefield advantage. There’s not a tougher place to play in the NFL, especially in a game of this magnitude, than Arrowhead Stadium.
The noise and energy that the fans provide this Chiefs team at home is undeniable. All you have to do is watch how the Chiefs defense played at home compared to on the road. It’s hard to believe it’s even the same team. They didn’t just hold serve against Andrew Luck and the Colts, they completely shutdown Indianapolis’ offense.
I get it’s a little different going up against the likes of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, but the Patriots don’t exactly have the greatest track record on the road. While New England is headed to a ridiculous 8th straight AFC Championship Game, they have only played two of the previous seven on the road and lost both. Patriots are just 3-4 in playoff road games under Brady and haven’t won on the road since 2006.
It’s not just the outcome, but the play on the field. Brady has a 46 to 18 TD-INT ratio in home playoff games and 8-8 ratio on the road. Many of you might recall the last time Brady visited Arrowhead. It was a Monday Night Football game back in Week 4 of 2016, which the Chiefs won 41-14. Brady was just 14 of 23 for 159 yards with 1 TD and 2 interceptions.
On the flip side of this, I don’t think there’s any stopping Mahomes and this Chiefs offense, especially now that they got back wide out Sammy Watkins. It’s no secret that Belichick’s defense is all about taking away a team’s best player, but there’s simply too many weapons to account for and Mahomes has shown he will take whatever the defense gives him. Give me the Chiefs -3!
|01-20-19||Rams +3.5 v. Saints||Top||26-23||Win||100||47 h 42 m||Show|
50* SAINTS/RAMS NFC CHAMPIONSHIP TOP PLAY (Rams +3.5)
As difficult as it is to bet against the Saints at home, I just think the Rams are the more complete team and I trust their offense a lot more. I also think having already played in the Superdome earlier this season will work to their advantage.
Not to take anything away from the Saints defense and how well they played over the final 3 quarters of their Division Round win against the Eagles, but a lot of that was bad offense by the Eagles. It was like the confidence was zapped from Foles when he threw that early pick and he missed a lot of throws the rest of the way. It didn’t help that Philadelphia couldn’t run the ball. The Eagles attempted just 16 rushes and totaled a mere 49 yards.
I’m not about to sit here and say the Rams are going to run all over this Saints defense the same way they did last week against Dallas, but clearly this team has found something in the 1-2 punch of Gurley and Anderson.
On the flip side of this, I think the Rams defense is way better than they are getting credit for. LA didn’t have the best defensive numbers during the regular season, but I think part of that was a lack of focus, especially in all those games where they jumped out to big leads. A lot of people were talking about how the Rams gave up 5.1 yards/carry against the run and how Dallas would run all over them. The Cowboys ended up with 50 yards and 2.3 yards/carry.
If they can take away the running game, that really only leaves them needing to focus their attention on Michael Thomas. He had 12 of Brees’ 28 completions against the Eagles and more than half the yards (171) that he threw for. Stopping Thomas is easier said than done, but one guy the Rams didn’t have in that first meeting is Aqib Talib. LA’s secondary did a real good job of holding Amari Cooper to just 6 catches for 65 yards last week. Give me the Rams +3.5!
|01-13-19||Eagles +9.5 v. Saints||Top||14-20||Win||100||6 h 47 m||Show|
50* EAGLES/SAINTS NFL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Eagles +9.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Eagles covering the spread in this one. The Saints starting out the season 9-2 ATS, including a streak of 9 straight covers. That run forced the books to inflate their lines and we saw them fail to cover their last 3. I mean they were laying over a touchdown in a meaningless Week 17 game with Brees sitting out for rest.
I'm not huge on teams that coast to the finish and there were some concerning signs with New Orleans down the stretch. Most notably that 3 game stretch where the offense went missing. I just think we could see them come out flat here having not played a meaningful game in more than 2 weeks.
As for the Eagles, they got the feel of one of those teams that is clicking at the right time and there's clearly something special going on with this team and backup quarterback Nick Foles. The biggest thing is how the defense is playing and I think they not only have a great shot at covering, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they won this game outright. Give me the Eagles +9.5!
|01-12-19||Colts v. Chiefs -5||Top||13-31||Win||100||23 h 3 m||Show|
50* NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAY OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -5)
I think because Kansas City kinda limped into the playoffs and their defense has been so bad over the course of the season, few are believing this team has what it takes to win it all. Last I checked the most important position on the field is the quarterback and in my opinion the Chiefs have the best signal caller in the postseason.
It’s not just Mahomes and what he brings to the table, this Kansas City offense is unlike anything we have seen before. The Chiefs eclipsed 25 points in every single game this season. KC has weapons littered all over the field and while the Colts defense has been playing great during their big run, I think they are going to struggle to slow this Chiefs offense down.
I’m also not solid on Indianapolis’ defense being as good as the numbers suggest. Don’t get me wrong, they are greatly improved on that side of the ball. However, during their 10-1 stretch, they haven’t played many top notch signal callers. The run includes games against Derek Anderson, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Blaine Gabbert (twice), Ryan Tannehill, Cody Kessler, Deshaun Watson (twice), Dak Prescott and Eli Manning.
The other huge factor here is where the game is being played. Arrowhead Stadium is one of the toughest places in the NFL to play for opposing teams, especially in a game of this magnitude. The atmosphere is going to be electric in Kansas City and while this Chiefs offense is built to put up points no matter where the game is played, the defense really feeds off the energy of the stadium. I think because the overall numbers are so bad, people overlook just how drastically better KC’s defense is at home compared to on the road.
The other thing with the Chiefs is they have a top notch pass rush, which really makes it tough on opposing teams if they get behind. KC also is one of the better teams at getting off the field on 3rd down. The Chiefs win here comfortably. Give me Kansas City -5!
|01-06-19||Chargers v. Ravens -2.5||Top||23-17||Loss||-115||44 h 52 m||Show|
50* CHARGERS/RAVENS WILD CARD SUNDAY TOP PLAY (Ravens -2.5)
I was on the Ravens in that Week 16 win and cover at Los Angeles and will gladly back Baltimore at less than a field goal at home. Given what we saw just a few weeks ago, I’m not sure how the Ravens aren’t a bigger favorite here. I think a lot of people are jumping on the Chargers in this one, mainly because the perception is that even though Baltimore beat them, LA is the better team. I also think there’s a lack of trust for Baltimore’s rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson and a lot of trust for Philip Rivers.
I’ll be the first to admit that I was skeptical of Jackson being able to succeed at the NFL level, especially this early on his career. I thought he would need at least one season on the bench to kind of learn the NFL game and develop as a pro passer. Turns out that while he still has a long way to go as thrower, he’s more than ready to impact the NFL game with his legs. Jackson has rushed for 695 yards and accounted for 45 first downs with his legs (best on the team by 8). Since they went with him as the starter, Baltimore has transformed into an elite rushing team. In the 7 games with him as the starter, they are averaging 229.9 ypg. That would be unheard of if they did that for an entire season.
What this incredible rushing attack has allowed the Ravens to do with Jackson, is control the clock and keep one of the league’s best defenses fresh. It’s a recipe that can work. Baltimore not only beat the Chargers in LA, but they were a couple 4th down conversions by the Chiefs away from a win at Arrowhead.
The big downside is that this style of play will often lead to a lot of close games. I just think that Jackson and the Ravens offense will be able to generate enough points and more than anything, play keep away from Rivers and that Chargers offense. Rivers is known to press the issue when he’s frustrated and he threw 2 picks against this Baltimore defense in Week 15. No team is better at disguising their defense than the Ravens. I’m banking on Rivers making a mistake or two here. Give me the Ravens -2.5!
|01-05-19||Seahawks v. Cowboys -1||Top||22-24||Win||100||27 h 4 m||Show|
50* COWBOYS/SEAHAWKS WILD CARD SATURDAY TOP PLAY (Cowboys -1)
I just think the price here is too good to pass up with Dallas. The Cowboys have a much bigger homefield advantage than what we are seeing with this line. Dallas is 7-1 on their home field, where they are outscoring opponents on average by 6.5 points/game. Seattle’s not a horrible road team, but they were just 3-4 in true road games and their 3 road wins were all against non playoff teams in the Cardinals, Panthers and Lions. Two of those they won on last second field goals.
It’s no secret that these two teams are built on their running game. For me it’s not so much who has the better rushing attack, but which of these two defenses are better equipped to defend it. That’s where I think we see the big edge here for the Cowboys.
Dallas’ defense has been outstanding against run. They finished 5th in the NFL, giving up just 3.8 yards/carry and 5th in run defense, allowing 94.6 ypg. Keep in mind this was with the Cowboys giving up 178 rushing yards in a game they didn’t show up to play in Week 15 (game really didn’t matter in terms of winning division. They had basically won the NFC East the week before with a 29-23 win over the Eagles). They also allowed 143 rushing yards in a meaningless Week 17 game against the Giants (win or lose, Dallas was going to be the No. 4 seed).
On the flip side of this, while Seattle ranks a respectable 13th in run defense, giving up 113.2 ypg, they are 30th in the NFL, giving up 4.9 yards/carry. Only the Chiefs (5.0 ypc) and Rams (5.1 ypc) were worse.
You can also look back at the Week 3 matchup. Dallas rushed for 166 yards on 19 attempts (8.7 yards/carry) and Seattle had just 113 yards on 39 attempts (2.9 yards/carry). The big difference was at that time Dak Prescott didn’t have Amari Cooper to throw the ball. Tight end Geoff Swaim led the team with 5 receptions for 47 yards. Despite only playing in 9 games, Cooper finished as the team’s No. 1 receiver with 725 yards and also led the team with 6 receiving touchdowns.
I think this time around the Cowboys will be able to put some points on the board and really let their defense feed off the energy of the home fans. Dallas is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs a team that is giving up 350 or more yards/game (Seattle allows 353 ypg). Seattle is also a team that has been overvalued quite a bit in recent playoff games. Seahawks are a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games. Give me the Cowboys -1!
|12-30-18||Falcons v. Bucs +2||Top||34-32||Push||0||24 h 27 m||Show|
50* NFC SOUTH GAME OF THE YEAR (Bucs +2)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Tampa Bay as a home dog. I think there's no reason the Bucs should be a dog at home against the Falcons. While Tampa Bay comes in having lost 3 straight, one was a defeat at home to the Saints. The other two were on the road against likely division winners in Baltimore and Dallas (both 1-score games).
I'm not sold on Jameis Winston long-term, but he's been playing much better of late. The Bucs have turned it over just 5 times in their last 5 games after a ridiculous 29 turnovers in their previous 9 games. I also think a lot of people aren't aware of how much better this Tampa Bay defense has been playing since they switch defensive coordinators. I also think people would be shocked to hear that the Bucs haven't allowed a 300-yard passer in 10 straight games. In their last 7 they have held 6 under 200 yards.
Atlanta's offense has not been up to par in the 2nd half of the season. While they scored 40 a couple weeks ago against the Cardinals, that's the only game in their last 7 that they have scored more than 24 and the 24 they put up last week was more of the Panthers not having Newton and not coming to play after getting knocked out of the playoff race. Give me the Bucs +2!
|12-23-18||Chiefs v. Seahawks||Top||31-38||Loss||-118||31 h 16 m||Show|
50* NFL SHARP MONEY PLAY OF THE YEAR (Chiefs PK)
As difficult as last week’s loss to the Chargers was, I think it’s a gift to lay less than a field goal with the Chiefs against any team in the league and I'm just going to play the money line in this one. Kansas City is 11-3 and their losses have come by a combined 7-points against 3 of the best teams in the league in the Patriots, Rams and Chargers.
It’s not the offense that has let this team down in their defeats, as the Chiefs have scored a ridiculous 119 points in their 3 losses (39.7 ppg). They could just as easily won all 3 of those games and be sitting at 15-0. No way would they be only a 2.5-point favorite if that was the case.
Give Philip Rivers and the Chargers credit for making the plays they did, but so much had to go right for them to get that win. I loved how the Chiefs were able to get a ton of pressure on Rivers and had Eric Berry not been on a pitch count (didn’t play the 2nd half), they likely win that game. Berry was a legit difference maker in the 1st half and is expected to play a bigger role in this game.
I think the Chiefs are going to make life very difficult on Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense in this one and I just don’t see Seattle being able to score enough to keep this game close. Patrick Mahomes is playing out of his mind right now and my money is on him delivering a big time performance when the Chiefs need it the most.
It’s no secret Seattle wants to run the football. Andy Reid is 15-5 in the second half of the season against teams who average 130 or more rushing yards/game as a head coach in the NFL. Chiefs are also 11-3 ATS under Reid in road games after scoring 25 or more in each of their last 2 and 9-1 ATS last 10 after playing their previous 2 on the road.
I also want to point out that while a win here for Seattle would be huge, they can lose and still secure a Wild Card spot with a win at home over the Cardinals in Week 17. Give me the Chiefs!
|12-17-18||Saints v. Panthers OVER 50||Top||12-9||Loss||-105||8 h 24 m||Show|
50* MNF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 50)
For whatever reason, these two have a history of playing high-scoring games. The OVER cashed in all 3 meetings between these two teams last year and is 7-1 in the last 8 overall.
A big reason for that is the Panthers defense hasn’t figured out a way to slow down Brees and the Saints offense. New Orleans had at least 31 points in all 3 meetings last year and have scored 30 or more in 5 of the last 6 in the series. It really shouldn’t be a big surprise. The Panthers defense hasn’t been great in the secondary and are more built to stop the run behind star middle linebacker Luke Kuechly. Their secondary can be exposed and few are better at dicing up defensive backs than Sean Payton and Brees.
This year is no different for Carolina. They come into this game ranked 7th against the run but are a mere 20th agains the pass. They also don’t do a great job of putting pressure on the quarterback, as they rank in the bottom 10 in sacks this year.
As for the Saints offensive struggles the last two games, I think a big part of that was both Dallas and Tampa Bay have been getting after the quarterback. Cowboys have been doing it all season and the Bucs have made major improvements in that area since switching defensive coordinators.
I think it’s reasonable to expect around 30 points from New Orleans, which means we only need something like 21-24 from Carolina. The Panthers can move the football. They are 9th in the NFL in total offense at 378.1 ypg. They are also lighting up the scoreboard at Bank of America Stadium. Carolina comes in averaging 30.8 ppg at home. Give me the OVER 50!
|12-16-18||Raiders v. Bengals -3||Top||16-30||Win||100||17 h 15 m||Show|
50* NFL LATE SEASON GAME OF THE YEAR (Bengals -3)
I believe the books have completely missed the mark here. I get the Bengals come in having lost 5 straight and have lost Andy Dalton, but there's no way they shouldn't be closer to a touchdown favorite against the Raiders.
Oakland threw in the towel on the 2018 season before the season even started. Sure they got up the last two weeks at home agains the Chiefs and Steelers. They hung around with KC and upset Pittsburgh. I think it sets up a huge flat spot against another struggling team, especially with a big rivalry game at home against the Broncos next week. Might be the last time those two teams face off in Oakland and potentially the game the Raiders will play in Oakland.
Cincinnati isn't getting near enough credit for how well they played last week at the Chargers. They lost 26-21 and had their chances to pull off the upset. I've liked what I've seen out of quarterback Jeff Driskel and a talented Bengals defensive front should have their way with a banged up Raiders offensive line. Give me Cincinnati -3!
|12-15-18||Browns +3 v. Broncos||Top||17-16||Win||100||26 h 53 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Browns +3)
I just think the injuries have become too much for Denver to overcome. On offense they playing a bunch of inexperienced receivers after trading away Demaryius Thomas and then losing Emmanuel Sanders to a season ending injury in their Week 13 win over the Bengals. Against the 49ers, Case Keenum completed 24 of 42 attempts for just 186 yards, which comes out to a dreadful 4.4 yards/attempt.
I think not having anyone to really respect in the passing game allowed the 49ers to really load up agains the run and not let Philip Lindsay beat them. San Francisco held Lindsay to just 30 yards on 14 attempts. Lindsay had 346 yards and 5 scores over the previous 3 games. Cleveland just held a pretty good Panthers rushing attack to 96 yards, so they can definitely keep Lindsay in check.
On the flip side of this, I’ve really liked what I’ve seen out of Browns’ rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield. If it wasn’t for some costly turnovers in that 29-13 loss at Houston (outgained Texans 428-384), Cleveland could easily be riding a 4-game winning streak. I also think this is a completely different and much better team since they got rid of Hue Jackson and Todd Haley.
Maybe the most important thing is the Browns are playing with a ton of confidence and if you look at the media coverage on this team, players actually think they got a chance at sneaking into the playoffs, whether it be as a Wild Card or somehow winning the AFC North. Regardless of how slim their chances really are, that’s the mentality you want to see from a team in this spot. I definitely don’t get that same vibe from the Broncos. It’s almost as if the loss the 49ers sucked the life out of this team.
It’s also worth pointing out that Denver is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games, 4-9 ATS last 13 vs a team with a losing record, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played in the month of December, 1-5 ATS last 6 after scoring less than 15 points and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 following a game where they didn’t cover the number. Give me the Browns +3!
|12-13-18||Chargers v. Chiefs -3.5||Top||29-28||Loss||-100||11 h 51 m||Show|
50* CHARGERS/CHIEFS AFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -3.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Kansas City as a short home favorite. Not only have the Chiefs dominated this series with 9 straight wins over the Chargers, but they are a perfect 6-0 at home this season, where they are outscoring teams by 14.0 ppg.
I just think the Chargers are getting a lot of love because of there being just a 1-game difference in the record for these two teams. Prior to their 3-point win over the Ravens, all 5 of the Chiefs previous home wins had come by at least a touchdown and they really dominated in all of those games.
I just think the percentages here are greatly in favor of Kansas City winning this game. Not only is it going to be an electric atmosphere at Arrowhead for a prime time game, but I can’t stress enough how difficult it is for the road team in these Thursday games. It’s really hard on the defenses and I think that’s where it really plays into the Chiefs favor, as they got arguably the most explosive offensive in the league right now.
As for the Chiefs defense, they are expected to get back the heart and soul of that unit in former All-Pro safety Eric Berry. It’s completely up in the air just how good Berry will be, as he hasn’t seen the field since Week 1 of last season, but I can assure you the energy in the stadium will be different with him on the field.
Another huge factor here is how banged up the Chargers are at running back. Melvin Gordon and backup Austin Ekeler are both doubtful. With the way Kansas City can get after the quarterback with their pass rush, you got no chance against that defense if you don’t make them respect the run. I know the run defense for KC isn’t great, but that’s definitely one area where Berry figures to have a huge impact right away.
It’s also worth pointing out that Philip Rivers has simply not played well against the Chiefs. He’s 2-9 as a starter against Kansas City (3-8 ATS) and the numbers are down across the board. He actually had one of his better games against the Chiefs in Week 1, as he threw for 424 yards and 3 scores. However, the Chargers offense only had 12 points going into the 4th quarter.
Another thing that I think is worth mentioning, is KC beat the Chargers in Week 1 without a big game from Kareem Hunt, who had just 49 yards rushing and didn’t catch a pass. Mahomes did as he pleased, throwing for 256 and 4 touchdowns. Expect more of the same from the likely league MVP. Give me the Chiefs -3.5!
|12-09-18||Rams v. Bears OVER 50.5||Top||6-15||Loss||-115||29 h 30 m||Show|
50* SUN NIGHT FOOTBALL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 50.5)
First things first with a midwest game in December, you have to check the forecast before playing the total. It’s going to be cold, but nothing these players can’t candle. Most importantly there’s no precipitation or strong winds expected. I think Mother Nature is the only thing that could keep these two teams from eclipsing this number.
I get the Bears have one of the best defenses in the NFL. There’s no denying that. I just think the Rams offense is simply too good for any defense to stop. They were average at best last week at Detroit and still managed to put 30 points up on the scoreboard. I think it’s also important to note that Tom Brady and the Patriots came into Soldier Field and put up 38 points earlier this season.
The other big key here is I still think this Chicago offense is flying under the radar. Even with starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky out the past two games, they still managed 25 ppg and both of those were on the road. Trubisky and the Bears offense was really in a groove before he went down and we know this LA defense can be exposed.
Another factor here that I think favors the OVER is that while both defenses figure to give up plenty of points, both teams have a lot of playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. I think there’s going to be multiple turnovers and wouldn’t be shocked at all if both teams scored defensive touchdowns in this game.
I get 52 seems like a lot, but all we need is for a 30-23 final to cash a winning ticket. I actually think they score more than that and this thing ends up closer to 65. Give me the OVER 50.5!
|12-09-18||Giants -3 v. Redskins||Top||40-16||Win||103||21 h 14 m||Show|
50* NFC EAST GAME OF THE YEAR (Giants -3)
I'll take my chances here with the Giants laying just a field goal on the road against the Mark Sanchez led Redskins. It wasn’t that long ago Washington was on top the NFC East and thinking playoffs. Now that they have lost their top two quarterbacks, they know how this thing is going to end.
I’m also liking what I’ve seen from New York of late. Had the Giants not blown that 19-3 lead against the Eagles a couple weeks ago, they would be riding a 4-game winning streak and still very much alive at 5-7. I know the argument now is there’s nothing for them to play for, but I see no reason for them to not keep fighting and there’s definitely motivation here to get revenge against division rival.
The biggest thing for me is that I have a really hard time seeing that Redskins offense doing a whole lot with Sanchez under center. He attempted 21 passes and while he completed 13, it was for just 100 yards (4.8 yards/attempt). He also threw an interception and was sacked twice. Washington’s offense as a whole had just 235 yards and 90 of those came on one run by Adrian Peterson. Sanchez has made 6 starts the last 3 seasons and his team is both 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS, and have been outscored by nearly 10.7 ppg.
It’s also worth noting that the Redskins defense has really struggled of late. In their last 3 games they are giving up 27.3 ppg and 386.7 ypg. Their weakness defensively this season has been defending the pass, but they are struggling against the run as well. They have allowed at least 130 rushing yards in each of their last 3. Look for rookie Saquon Barkley to have a big game and that should open up things for Eli Manning and OBJ in the passing game.
Giants have covered 5 straight road games and are a good team to back away from home when they are covering. New York is 34-16 ATS in their last 50 road games when they come in having covered 2 or more games in a row. Redskins are on short rest after playing on Monday Night Football last week and are a mere 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when playing the Sunday after a MNF contest. They are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against the NFC East. Give me the Giants -3!
|12-02-18||Browns +6 v. Texans||Top||13-29||Loss||-115||21 h 59 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS AFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Browns +6)
|11-29-18||Saints v. Cowboys +8||Top||10-13||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
50* SAINTS/COWBOYS TNF VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Cowboys +8)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Dallas as an 8-point dog. As difficult as it can be to bet into a streak like the one the Saints are riding with 8 straight covers, you know there’s value going against a streak like that, as the public won’t be able to help themselves. At this point, it doesn’t matter what the number is, they are taking New Orleans.
They were very fortunate to get a cover last week against the Falcons. They just squeaked by the number, winning by 14 as a 13-point favorite and Atlanta really beat themselves. The Falcons had 4 turnovers, two in the red-zone and actually outgained the Saints 366-312.
That’s now 9 forced turnovers in the Saints last 3 games, but now they go up against a Cowboys team that really values the football. Dallas hasn’t turned it over in 3 straight games. A big reason for that is they have got Elliott and the running game going. In their last 3 games the Cowboys are averaging 149.7 rushing yards per game and in this stretch have put up 26.7 ppg and 379 ypg. Quite a big difference from the 21.3 ppg and 334 ypg they average for the season as a whole.
I believe the addition of Cooper is definitely a factor that has helped the running game. Prior to adding him there really wasn’t anyone the defenses had to be worried about in the passing game. I mean the guy has played 4 games and is third on the team with 349 receiving yards and his 3 TD catches are tops on the roster.
I think with Dallas’ ability to run the football and keep the ball out of Drew Brees’ hands, it only increases the likelihood that the Cowboys can keep this within a touchdown. I actually think Dallas has a legit shot at winning this game outright. Chances are the Saints are going to slip up at least one more time and the Cowboys have won 4 of 5 on their home field.
We also see that New Orleans is a mere 5-15 ATS last 20 road games after 3 straight games scoring 25 or more points, while Dallas is 35-19 ATS last 54 home games when they come in having won 3 of their last 4. Give me the Cowboys +8!
|11-25-18||Seahawks v. Panthers -3||Top||30-27||Loss||-119||91 h 16 m||Show|
50* NFL -NFC- GAME OF THE YEAR (Panthers -3)
We have a talented Carolina team coming off back-to-back road losses laying a short number at home in a game we know they are going to give max effort.
Not to mention the Panthers have been outstanding at home this season. Perfect 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home. Seattle comes in at 5-5 and are a respectable 3-3 on the road, but one was a neutral site game against the Raiders and the other two were at Detroit and Arizona, two of the bottom feeders in the NFC.
I just think Seattle is getting a little too much love from those two close losses to the Rams, as well as the fact that they are fresh off that win at home against Green Bay in a prime time matchup. One thing you have to keep in mind with the victory against the Packers is just how big an advantage the home team has in those Thursday games and Green Bay was running on fumes.
The Packers went to LA in Week 8 to face the Rams, then traveled across the country to take on New England in Week 9. They hosted the Dolphins and had to turn right back around and go out west for that game on 3 days rest. I think if Seattle was as good as this line is suggesting, they would have won by a lot more in that spot.
Another thing with Seattle, is this is not an ideal matchup for them. The Seahawks have really transformed their running game this year. They are 1st in the NFL at 154.3 ypg, compared to 27th in passing (219.2 ypg). Carolina has the 8th ranked run defense, giving up just 98.5 ypg and it's even more stingy at home, where they are only giving up 79 ypg.
On the flip side of this, the Panthers are also built on their running game, as they come in 7th in the league at 130.2 ypg. Seattle is 17th against the run, allowing 111.5 ypg and they are giving up a healthy 4.9 yards/carry.
I also want to point out I don't think this Seahawks defense is as good as the numbers say they are. I think they are sugar-coated a bit from a pretty favorable schedule outside of their two games against the Rams.
Panthers are 30-19 ATS under head coach Ron Rivera in home games against fellow NFC opponents. They are also 13-3 ATS under Rivera when coming off back-to-back games where they failed to cover the spread and 9-1 ATS under Rivera when coming off an upset loss as a road favorite. Give me Carolina -3!
|11-22-18||Bears -2.5 v. Lions||Top||23-16||Win||100||14 h 10 m||Show|
50* LIONS/BEARS NFL THANKSGIVING TOP PLAY (Bears -2.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Chicago to win by at least a field goal. I'm well aware that Trubisky isn't likely to play, but that's why the Bears went out and signed a guy like Chase Daniel, who was with Nagy in KC and will be very comfortable in this offense. Might I add an offense that I think has been very underrated this year, as everyone wants to talk about the defense. Speaking of the defense, I think that's where Chicago will win this game. Detroit's offense hasn't been the same since they traded away Golden Tate and now they will have to adjust to life without Kerryon Johnson, who is out with a knee injury. Johnson has been a huge part of this offense and finally gave Detroit some balance with the running game. He had 89 total yards and two scores in the Lions 12-point loss to the Bears two weeks ago. Lions also might be without wide out Marvin Jones, who is questionable after not playing last week. Too much pressure on Stafford against that defense for Chicago. Give me the Bears -2.5!
|11-18-18||Texans -3 v. Redskins||Top||23-21||Loss||-100||26 h 40 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (Texans -3)
I just don’t think the Redskins are anywhere close to as good as their 6-3 record would lead you to believe. On the flip side of this, I think Houston is flying way under the radar, which isn’t easy to do for a team that’s won 6 straight.
Washington had no business winning last week at Tampa Bay. The Bucs had a 501-286 edge in total yards and 29-15 advantage in first downs. That’s now two straight weeks the defense has been torched, while the offense has struggled. They gave up 38 points and 491 yards to the Falcons at home. This defense also got torched by the Saints for 43 earlier this season.
I get that the Texans aren’t an offensive juggxrnaught, but they did recently put up 42 on the Dolphins and look for new wide out Demaryius Thomas to have a much bigger role now that he’s had two full weeks to learn the playbook.
It’s not so much that I think Houston is going to go into Washington and put up 35+ points. I hope they do. However, it’s more about the matchup between Washington’s offense against the Texans defense.
The Redskins have been decimated with injuries on the offensive line and there needs to be major cause for concern when you score a mere 30 combined points against two of the worst defenses in the league in the Falcons and Bucs. Going into Week 11, Atlanta is giving up 28.2 ppg and Tampa Bay is allowing 32.3. Keep in mind they only had 286 yards against the Bucs.
With that make-shift offensive line they can’t really throw a lot and desperately need to be able to have success running the football to have any shot at moving the ball down the field. Houston has a guy named J.J. Watt, who is without question one of the best defensive linemen to every play the game and leading a Texans defense that ranks 6th against the run (92.9 ypg). It’s not going to be a fun day for Alex Smith and I just don’t see Washington being able to score enough to keep this game competitive. Give me the Texans -3!
|11-15-18||Packers v. Seahawks OVER 48||Top||24-27||Win||100||10 h 23 m||Show|
50* NFL -GB/SEA- VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 48)
I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER at 48. I’ve said it time and time before, the books just don’t adjust the number enough on the total for these Thursday games. Playing good defense is all about effort and energy, where offense is more about execution. Three days just isn’t enough for these defensive guys to recover and play at their full potential.
We saw this first hand last week with the Panthers/Steelers matchup, which saw Pittsburgh eclipse the total on their own as the two combined for 73 points. There have only been two times this season where they OVER hasn’t hit on a Thursday game with teams playing on short rest. That was Week 3 with the Browns/Jets (only missed the over by a point and would have hit had Mayfield started instead of coming in for Tyrod Taylor). The other was a couple weeks ago with the 49ers/Raiders, where Oakland is in full-on tank mode.
This week we got two of the best quarterbacks in the game in Aaron Rodgers for Green Bay and Russell Wilson for the Seahawks. I expect both teams to have a lot of success moving the football.
The Packers are at the bigger disadvantage here, as they not only have to play on short-rest but they have to travel quite a ways for this one and it’s been quite a run of travel for Green Bay of late. They traveled to the west coast to play the Rams in Week 8, then went across the country to the east coast to play New England. They returned home for a game against Miami and are now headed back west.
For Seattle, I think it’s going to no only be tough for them to recover physically, but that was a very emotional game against a division rival where they were playing with revenge. Tough turnaround here for them to get up defensively after trying to contain that Rams offense.
While this is more about rest than anything for me, it’s worth noting the OVER is a solid 35-19 in the Packers last 54 as a road dog (avg. score in these games is 51.3) and 13-4 in the Seahawks last 17 as a home favorite of 3-points or less. Give me the OVER 48!
|11-12-18||Giants v. 49ers -3||Top||27-23||Loss||-115||34 h 35 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (49ers -3)
I'll gladly take my chances with San Francisco laying just a field goal. I usually like teams coming off a bye, but the 49ers also have had extra time to prepare having played on Thursday Night Football last week.
The other thing for me is I just trust San Francisco a lot more to show up for this game. I get this is prime time and everyone wants to shine on Monday Night Football, but I think the Giants are a complete mess right now and a lot of it has to do with the play of Eli Manning. If he hadn’t won this franchise two Super Bowls, I don’t think there’s anyway he’s still there starting quarterback.
He’s old, slow and just not that great anymore. I think a lot of the New York players are very frustrated with him at quarterback. Eli’s lack of mobility and an offensive line that isn’t playing well are definitely major factors to why this offense is struggling. Last time out Manning was sacked 7 times by the Redskins. The week before the Falcons had 4 sacks.
Last week the Raiders had to pull Derek Carr because they couldn’t keep the 49ers out of their backfield. San Francisco had 8 sacks on the game and are T-7th with 24 on the season. I get the 8 sacks were a direct result of Oakland’s lack of effort, but this definitely seems like a Giants team that’s in a very similar start to the Raiders.
The other big thing here for me is just how impressive Nick Mullens was in his NFL debut. He completed 16 of 22 for 262 yards and 3 scores. I know he’s likely not going to play that well against an NFL defense that is actually trying, but he passed the eye test for me and I’m willing to gamble it wasn’t all luck and that he’ll have another big game at home and keep this Cinderella story going. Give me the 49ers -3!
|11-11-18||Jaguars +3 v. Colts||Top||26-29||Push||0||92 h 4 m||Show|
50* AFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Jags +3)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Jacksonville as a dog. I think this is the ideal spot to jump on the Jaguars, who I think are going to come out of their bye and remind everyone just how talented this team is. All you see right now in the media is how big of a disappointment this team has been and the NFL just pulled a prime-time home game away from them (were suppose to host Steelers on Sunday Night Football in Week 11, but now it’s an early kickoff).
There’s just some teams that I think play better in the role of the underdog and I fully expect this team to come out with a chip on their shoulder. I get the frustration some might have with starting quarterback Blake Bortles, but no one needed the bye more than him to reset and get back on track. I think he can do just that against a Colts defense that while improved is not all that great.
Indianapolis comes in ranked a mere 19th against the run (109.9 ypg) and 23rd against the pass (275.6 ypg). They same Raiders offense that managed just 3 points and 242 total yards against the 49ers on Thursday Night Football in Week 9, had 28 points by the end of the 3rd quarter just a few days prior against this Colts defense.
The biggest positive here for Bortles getting back on track is the return of running back Leonard Fournette, whose absence has certainly played a big role in the Jaguars struggles. He’s only played in two games (both wins) and last played in a 31-12 win against the Jets in Week 4. He practiced fully today, so should be good to go for this one.
I’m a big Andrew Luck fan and he’s never going to go down without a fight, but I just think he’s in for a long day against this Jaguars defense. When they are clicking this Jacksonville defense is as good as it gets in the NFL. As bad as things have been going, they still rank 2nd in the NFL, giving up just 313.3 ypg. They also own the league’s No. 1 ranked pass defense, allowing a mere 206.8 ypg. The Colts are running the ball better this year, but it’s no secret they need the passing game to be working for them to move the football.
I know Indy has the same record as the Jaguars, but their 3 wins are against the Redskins, Bills and Raiders. I guess the win over Washington looks okay because they lead a bad division, but at least with Jacksonville’s win over the Patriots and last year’s success we know how good this team can be when they get it going.
If that team shows up this thing will turn into a blowout, but with that said, I still think they win and cover without playing their best. That’s how big a gap I think there is between these two teams. Give me Jaguars +3.
|11-08-18||Panthers v. Steelers OVER 51.5||Top||21-52||Win||100||12 h 39 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 51.5)
Those that have been following from the start of the year, know how much I like the OVER in these Thursday night games. There's only been two games this season on Thursday with teams playing on short rest that have went under the total. One of those was last week, where who the hell knows what Gruden and the Raiders are doing. The other was a game that went under by just 1-point. Tonight we got two of the best offenses in the NFL, who both have top tier quarterbacks. I get how good Pittsburgh has been defensively and who the Panthers have on the defensive side of the ball, they just aren't going to be as good on just 3 days of rest, especially this late in the year. Not to mention the unfamiliarity these two teams have with this being a non-conference game and both teams coming off big division wins. Give me the OVER 51.5!
|11-04-18||Rams v. Saints +2.5||Top||35-45||Win||100||31 h 50 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Saints +2.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints as a home dog to the LA Rams on Sunday. I just think the perception on the Rams is that they are this unbeatable team that, but I'm not buying it. They are a really good team, but there's plenty of teams out there who can knock them off, especially on the road.
New Orleans lost their opener to the Bucs at home and since that shocking defeat that haven't lost again. Not only have they won 6 straight, but they have covered 5 in a row. Rams on the other hand are struggling with these inflated numbers they are having to deal with, as LA has gone just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5.
I think the key thing here is the game being played in New Orleans, as well as the Rams run defense being able to slow down Gurley, who is the guy that makes that offense go. Saints haven't allowed an opposing team to run for more than 93 yards since Week 1 and are giving up 74 ypg and 3.2 yards/carry. On the flip side of this, Brees will be able to pick apart a pretty suspect Rams secondary. Give me New Orleans +2.5!
|11-01-18||Raiders v. 49ers OVER 45||Top||3-34||Loss||-110||10 h 54 m||Show|
50* RAIDERS/49ERS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 45)
I’ve recommended the OVER in every single Thursday Night game since Week 2, which is when the teams first have to play these games on just 3-days rest. All but one of them have finished OVER the total and that one just missed out by a single point. Many of the ones that have hit haven’t even been close. I could definitely see this one between the 49ers and Raiders flying over the total.
What’s the real incentive for either of these teams right now? Oakland is trading away their best players for future draft picks and the 49ers season was over as soon as Garoppolo went down. The best strategy for both teams is certainly to not win games, as they are much better off tanking for a better draft pick. I know that doesn’t happen in the NFL like it does in the NBA, but I think we are starting to see the league trend more that way. We are definitely seeing a lot more action at the trade deadline than we have in the past.
The road team is always at a disadvantage in these games and the Raiders defense couldn’t be playing much worse. Oakland is dead last in the NFL against the run, giving up 144.7 ypg. San Francisco is 21st against the pass (275.5 ypg) and 13th against the run (102.9 ypg), but keep in mind they have played Arizona’s anemic offense twice. They also might be without linebacker Reuben Foster, corner Richard Sherman and safety Jaquiski Tartt. All of which are questionable to play.
The other key here is that these two teams have some decent talent on the offensive side of the ball. I think both teams have a realistic shot here of scoring somewhere between 27-34 points and all we need is for something like 27-20 to cash a winning ticket.
Lastly, there’s a great system in play. The Over is 64-29 (69%) over the last 10 seasons in non-conference games, where one team (49ers) is off a division loss by 7-points or less. Give me the Over 45!
|10-28-18||Ravens v. Panthers +3||Top||21-36||Win||100||25 h 18 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Panthers +3)
I'll take my chances here with Carolina as a home dog against the Ravens. I just think the price here is too good to pass up on the Panthers, as I think Baltimore has no business being favored on the road.
For whatever reason this Carolina team is getting no love in 2018. The Panthers just rallied from 17 down in the 4th quarter to win at Philadelphia and all anyone wants to talk about is the Eagles giving the game away.
Carolina is 34-11 at home with Cam Newton as their starting quarterback, which includes a perfect 3-0 record at home this year. With Baltimore dealing with all kinds of injuries. I look for Newton and that offense to surprise some people with how well they move the ball.
I also think this is a really tough spot for the Ravens off that crushing loss at home to the Saints, where Justin Tucker missed the extra point late that would have sent the game to OT. That's as gut-wrenching of a loss as you will find and those are the hardest ones to bounce back from, especially on the road. Give me the Panthers +3!
|10-22-18||Giants +4.5 v. Falcons||Top||20-23||Win||100||9 h 12 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Giants +4.5)
For me, I just think the Falcons are a team the Giants can have a lot of success against. Atlanta’s defense just hasn’t been the same since they lost two of their star players in linebacker Deion Jones and safety Keanu Neal. Prior to giving up 29 points to the Bucs last week, the Falcons had allowed at least 37 in each of their previous 3 games, including 40+ to both the Saints and Steelers. Atlanta comes into this game ranked 31st in the league, giving up 32.0 ppg and 30th in total defense, allowing 417.1 ypg.
Opposing teams have been able to do whatever they want against this defense, as the Falcons are 24th against the run (121.3 ypg) and 29th against the pass (295.8 ypg). As much as the Giants offense has struggled, this is a defense they can exploit early and often. I look for Saquon Barkley to put up monster numbers in this one and for Eli Manning to have one of his better games.
Not to make excuses for New York’s 1-5 start, but it certainly hasn’t been the easiest of schedules over their first 6 games. Their 3 home games have all come against playoff teams from last year in the Jaguars, Saints and Eagles and there’s nothing easy about their 3 road games against the Cowboys, Texans and Panthers. The rest of the schedule is very manageable for the Giants and with no team running away with the NFC East, I still think this team has a pulse and are going to lay it all on the line in this one.
I also like the matchup here for the Giants defense. Atlanta’s really struggled to get their run game going and while the numbers aren’t great, New York is only allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 61% of their attempts. In comparison, the Falcons defense is allowing opposing QBs to complete 70.4% of their attempts. I’m not saying they are going to shutdown Atlanta’s high-powered passing attack, but I think they can make enough stops and score enough points to not only keep this game close enough to cover, but win it outright.
The Falcons are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 30 or more points. Giants are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 off a double-digit home loss, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after failing to cover their last game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after a game where they scored 14 or fewer points. Give me the Giants +4.5!
|10-21-18||Bengals v. Chiefs -5.5||Top||10-45||Win||100||33 h 30 m||Show|
50* SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PLAY OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -5.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Kansas City laying less than a touchdown at home. While both teams are fresh off crushing losses in Week 6, I think the Bengals are going to have the much harder time bouncing back. Cincinnati desperately wanted to beat the Steelers and snap that 5-game losing streak to Pittsburgh. To lose the way they did, where they felt like they had won the game, only magnifies the loss.
As for the Chiefs loss at New England, there just wasn’t the same vibe, even though the way they loss was very similar. That felt more like a win for Kansas City. Not many teams can rally from a 24-9 deficit on the road against the Patriots and take a lead in the 4th quarter. I think that loss really showed this team what they are capable of and they now have the belief that this whole Super Bowl thing is well within their reach.
With all that said, I would have leaned towards taking the Chiefs laying less than a touchdown before last week’s outcome. What a lot of people overlook with Kansas City’s 5-1 start, is they have only played two home games. Both of which they won by double-digits and had commanding leads. They were 35-10 at the half against the 49ers at home in Week 3 and 20-0 on the Jaguars a couple weeks back.
The Chiefs have one of the biggest homefield advantages in the NFL and Arrowhead is going to be electric with this being a prime time game under the lights. While the offense has proven it can play anywhere at any time, I think playing at home really helps out a defense that has struggled.
Another promising sign for the Chiefs defense is the Bengals’ offense managed just 275 yards at home against a Steelers defense that hasn’t played a whole lot better than Kansas City’s defense early on. I think some of that is just the limitations of Cincinnati’s offense with Andy Dalton and some of it’s the injuries that have piled up on that side of the ball.
As for the Chiefs offense, I think we have seen enough of Patrick Mahomes and this talented set of skill players to know they aren’t going anywhere. I think Kansas City is going to easily put up 30+ points on the board and that should be more than enough to cash in a win and cover against a physically and emotionally drained Bengals team. Give me the Chiefs -5.5!
|10-21-18||Panthers v. Eagles -5||Top||21-17||Loss||-110||24 h 19 m||Show|
50* PANTHERS/EAGLES NFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Eagles -5)
I'll take my chances laying the points with the Eagles at home in this one. While this will surely be the public side, I think the Eagles are still a little undervalued from their sluggish start to the season. Keep in mind that prior to the easy cover over the Giants, Philadelphia was just 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their previous 4 games.
I also think there’s the thought process out there that the win over the Giants is nothing to get excited about with how bad New York has been playing. I’m not saying the Giants are a good football team, but to go on the road and beat a division rival by 21 points is not easy to do, especially on a short week of rest.
I wasn’t all that surprised to see the Eagles get off to a slow start, as there’s not the same sense of urgency to start a new season after winning the Super Bowl the previous year. Plus, Carson Wentz missed the first couple games because of injury and it was going to take some time before he returned to that MVP form. Wentz has got better and better with each start. He was 26 of 36 for 278 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Giants and would have thrown for more if the score wasn’t so lopsided. He’s now thrown for 7 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in his last 3 starts.
I look for Wentz to have a big day here against a Carolina secondary that has struggled when up against a legit passing attack. A couple weeks ago they gave up 382 passing yards to the Giants. The week before that they gave up 330 to Andy Dalton and the Bengals.
I just don’t see Cam Newton and the Panthers offense being able to keep pace. Carolina’s offense is built around their run game and that’s evident by the fact they come in ranked 4th in the league in rushing (139.4 ypg) compared to 26th in passing (222.4 ypg). The Eagles aren’t a defense you want to have to pick up yards against on the ground. Philadelphia is 2nd in the league, giving up just 79.8 ypg and that’s with them allowing 147 to the Giants last week.
More than anything, I just love how the Eagles responded with their backs against the wall and I think that’s something they are going to build off of. I have a really hard time seeing them go back to how they played early on. This is still one of the most talented teams in the league and I fully expect them to play like it the rest of the way. Give me the Eagles -5.
|10-15-18||49ers v. Packers -9||Top||30-33||Loss||-110||9 h 12 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Packers -9)
I'll take my chances here laying the big number here with Green Bay at home. I don’t love backing big favorites like this, but when it’s Aaron Rodgers against C.J. Beathard, I’m willing to roll the dice, especially when it’s a prime time matchup and the Packers in desperate need of a win.
It’s really a shame that Garoppolo got hurt, as this 49ers team had a ton of upside. While Kyle Shanahan is going to get the most out of what he has to work with, he’s got his hands tied with Beathard. Some times you can turnovers can be fluky, other times it’s just a result of who a team has under center. Beathard has made 2 starts and thrown 4 interceptions and fumbled 3 times (lost 2 of them).
I just don’t see it getting any better for Beathard against a Green Bay defense that is playing better than people realize. The Packers are 4th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 313.8 ypg. Their strength has been their secondary, which is 2nd in the NFL, allowing just 208.8 ypg.
With the 49ers expected to be without their most explosive back in Matt Breida (averaging 7.5 yards/carry) and three starters on the offensive line questionable to play, San Francisco’s only hope of moving the ball is via the passing game. That’s a problem, as Green Bay is going to be able to unleash their pass rush (49ers allowed 18 sacks) and sit back in coverage and wait for Beathard to make a mistake.
It’s also worth pointing out that Rodgers and the Packers have been a good bet when laying a big number. Green Bay has been a favorite of 6 to 13 points 28 times with Rodgers at quarterback and are 20-8 ATS in those games. Green Bay is also 24-11 ATS in their last 35 at home and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Give me the Packers -9!
|10-14-18||Ravens -2.5 v. Titans||Top||21-0||Win||100||25 h 17 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Ravens -2.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Ravens laying less than a field goal on the road. The Titans come into this game with a winning record at 3-2, but they could just as easily be 0-5. All 3 of their wins have come by just 3-points. I just don't see them being able to keep winning games the way they have. Sure, the defense has been playing lights out, but this is one of the worst offenses in the league. Tennessee is 29th in the NFL in total offense, averaging just 294 ypg.They have little to no threat of a passing game after losing star tight end Delanie Walker and haven't been running the ball nearly as effective as they did a year ago. I just don't see the Titans being able to generate enough offense against this Ravens defense, which I think is one of the best in the league. Baltimore comes in ranked 5th against the run (88.4 ypg) and 4th against the pass (215.4 ypg). They also lead the league in scoring defense, allowing just 15.4 ppg.As for the Ravens' offense, I think they bounce back in a big way here after that ugly showing against the Browns. Even after scoring just 9-points against Cleveland, Baltimore is still 11th in the league in scoring at 26.4 ppg. They also sit 11th in the league in total offense, averaging 399.4 ypg.Going back to the Titans defense and it eventually falling off, they could be without one of their best players, as linebacker Wesley Woodyard is questionable with a shoulder injury. Losing Woodyard would be a big blow, as he's tied for the team lead in tackles.Another thing to note about Tennessee's defense, is they have played a bunch of teams that have struggled offensively early, as their opponents for the season are only averaging 19.3 ppg, which makes the 17.2 ppg the Titans are allowing that much less impressive.Baltimore is also a solid 16-6-4 ATS in their last 26 road games against a team with a winning home record and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. Give me the Ravens -2.5!
|10-08-18||Redskins v. Saints UNDER 52.5||Top||19-43||Loss||-110||9 h 57 m||Show|
50* SAINTS/REDSKINS MNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 52.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 52.5 on the total. I think a lot of people are going to see that games involving the Saints this year have seen an average score of 64.4 ppg and the fact that these two combined for 65 points in last year’s meeting in New Orleans and just assume this thing is going to fly over the total.
Last year’s outcome was a bit of a fluke in terms of how many points were scored. The two teams were sitting on 40 midway through the 4th quarter. That was also late in the year with the Redskins dealing with some big injuries on the defensive side of the ball.
With Alex Smith replacing Kirk Cousins, the Redskins are much more balanced and conservative offense than the previous versions under Cousins who really relied on an aggressive passing attack. The numbers back this up, as Washington finished 28th in the league in rushing last year at 90.5 ypg. While it’s still really early, they are sitting 5th in the NFL in rushing in 2018 at 137.7 ypg. When your attack is built around the ground game, you typically see a lot longer possessions and it also keeps the defense fresh.
Speaking of the Redskins defense, Washington comes into this game ranked 7th in the NFL against the run (90.7 ypg) and 3rd agains the pass (187.3 ypg). They held Andrew Luck and the Colts to just 21 points and Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to only 17, so there’s a good chance this defense continues to shine.
As far as the Saints offense is concerned, their numbers are inflated quite a bit due to the fact that they got to play an atrocious Bucs defense and a depleted Falcons defense. I also think they are going to focus even more on the running game now that Mark Ingram is back from his 4-game suspension. I also think those struggles in the redzone that popped up last week against the Giants could play a big role in this thing staying under the mark. Give me the UNDER 52.5!
|10-07-18||Falcons v. Steelers -3||Top||17-41||Win||100||19 h 49 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH (Steelers -3)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Steelers laying just a field goal at home against Atlanta. I think this is the perfect time to buy low on the Steelers, who I feel should be laying more than a field goal at home against the Falcons.
Every year there’s a team that just gets unlucky with the injury bug and Atlanta is definitely that team to start out 2018. The Falcons lost two of their best defensive players to season-ending injuries in the same game with free safety Keanu Neal and linebacker Deion Jones both going down in Week 1. They have since lost starting strong safety Ricardo Allen and left guard Andy Levitre to IR. If that wasn’t bad enough, defensive end Derrick Shelby, defensive end Vic Beasley, corner Justin Bethel and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett are all listed as questionable to play against Pittsburgh.
I know the Steelers defense has struggled, but they don’t have to play great here for Pittsburgh to win this game. Ben Roethlisberger and that Steelers offense should have a field day against this Falcons defense, which has given up 70 points in their last two games. On top of that, Atlanta is just 8-20 ATS under head coach Dan Quinn vs teams with a quarterback that is completing 61% or more of their pass attempts.
You also have to keep in mind that Atlanta’s offense is built to play inside a dome. So while they have scored 30+ in each of their last 3 games, all 3 have come at home. Their only road game was a Week 1 matchup at Philadelphia and the offense managed just 12 points and 299 total yards. I’m not saying Pittsburgh’s defense will hold them under 20 points, but I think they make enough stops here to let their offense create some separation.
Let’s also not overlook just how difficult a spot this is for the Falcons emotionally off those two losses to the Saints and Bengals. Those are the toughest kind of defeats to bounce back from, especially on the road against a talented team like Pittsburgh.
As for the Steelers coming off that loss to the Ravens. Pittsburgh is 13-5 ATS under Mike Tomlin after an upset loss as a home favorite and going back even further are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 home games off an upset loss to a division opponent. Give me the Steelers -3!
|10-04-18||Colts v. Patriots -10||Top||24-38||Win||100||10 h 47 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Patriots -10)
I was originally leaning towards taking the Colts here as a double-digit dog, but the more I looked into this one the more I like New England to win this thing going away. There's no question the Colts are better than their 1-3 record, but this team is dealing with a massive amount of injuries and that's the absolute last thing you want to be dealing with when facing Brady and Belichick on the road in a short week of preparation.
We know for sure the Colts offense won't have Luck's favorite weapon in T.Y. Hilton, as well as tight end Jack Doyle. Starting running back Marlon Mack is also out. Starting right tackle Joe Haeg is on IR and backup right tackle Denzelle Good is out. Starting left tackle Anthony Castonzo and starting center Ryan Kelly are both questionable. They may also be without Mr. automatic in kickr Adam Vinatieri.
Defensively they have lost two of their top defensive lineman in Hassan Ridgeway and Tyquan Lewis, as well as two of their top corners in Quincy Wilson and Kenny Moore. Starting safeties Darius Leonard and Clayton Geathers are both questionable, as is star rookie linebacker Darius Leonard and backup corner Nate Hairston.
New England will have Gronkowski after he was originally listed as questionable and also get back one of Brady's favorite targets in Julian Edelman from a 4-game suspension. I know they kind of righted the ship with last week's win over Miami, but I still feel this team is playing with a chip on their shoulder after the slow start.
Patriots are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 home games, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 off a win by 14 or more points, 35-14-2 in their last 51 in October and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Give me New England -10!
|10-01-18||Chiefs -3.5 v. Broncos||Top||27-23||Win||100||10 h 51 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chiefs -3.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with Kansas City as a small road favorite in this one. I don’t love being on the same side as the public, especially in a prime time game, but no way am I betting against this Chiefs team right now. Playing at home definitely gives Denver a shot, but I think they are going to have to play a perfect game to keep this close.
The biggest thing for me is I don’t see the Denver defense being able to slow down this high-powered Kansas City offense. I know it’s just 3 games, but Mahomes play on the field is arguably the best in the league. A big reason for that is the Chiefs have continuity on the offensive line and a plethora of weapons at the skill positions. Not to mention one of the best offensive minds in the game today in head coach Andy Reid.
Denver’s defense gets a lot of respect and I think that’s what is keeping this number lower than what it should be. It’s no secret their best player is Von Miller and when he dominates, the defense usually plays well. The Chiefs have one of the best right tackles in the game in Mitchell Schwartz and he’s typically the guy Miller goes against. Miller hasn’t had a sack in any of the last 3 games against the Chiefs.
It’s also worth pointing out that Mahomes got to face this defense in Week 17 last year and put up big numbers with a bunch of scrubs playing alongside of him. It’s also worth noting Denver’s defense struggled to contain this Chiefs offense back when Alex Smith was the quarterback, as KC has scored at least 27 in every game during their 5-game winning streak in the series.
The other thing that is keeping this number lower than it should be, is the perception of how bad this Chiefs defense is. I know the numbers aren’t great for Kansas City’s defense, but some of that is because of them getting out to such big leads and not wanting to give up the big plays. They have been really good at getting off the field early in the game and when it matters the most in the 4th quarter.
They have also played two Hall of Fame quarterbacks in Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees, as well as one of the top young guys in the league in Jimmy Garoppolo. Case Keenum is the worst QB they will have faced all season and if that Denver offense struggles just the slightest, this thing could get ugly in a hurry. Give me the Chiefs -3.5!
|09-30-18||Bucs v. Bears -2.5||Top||10-48||Win||100||3 h 16 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Bears -2.5)
I'll take my chances here with Chicago laying less than a field goal at home. I think there’s a ton of value here with the Bears. While both of these teams have gotten off to impressive starts, I believe the Bears have the better shot of sustaining their early season success the rest of the way.
The addition of Khalil Mack has turned a really good Bears defense into of the elite units in the league. Chicago comes into this game ranked 2nd in the NFL against the run (65.3 ypg) and 11th against the pass (223.7 ypg). They also lead the league in sacks (14) and are tied for 2nd in takeaways (8).
As good as Tampa Bay’s offense has looked in their first 3 games, their numbers have been greatly aided by going up against a couple of sub-par defenses in the Saints and Steelers. The one good defense they played was the Eagles and they only managed 21 points. I think it’s going to be a long day for whoever ends up starting for Tampa Bay, whether it be Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jameis Winston.
The even bigger key for me is the Bucs defense and how poorly it has played thru the first 3 games of 2018. Tampa Bay is 31st in the NFL, allowing 432.7 ypg. They have been atrocious against the pass, giving up a ridiculous 362.7 yards/game. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 102 of the 131 pass attempts agains this defense and are averaging an outstanding 8.3 yards/attempt.
I know it’s been a tough go of things for Mitch Trubisky and that Bears offense, but this is a defense they can exploit early and often. I look for Chicago to easily have it’s best offensive output of the season and it’s not like we need the Bears to put up a huge number to get the win and cover.
Chicago is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games and are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 at home versus a team with a winning road record. Give me the Bears -2.5!
|09-27-18||Vikings v. Rams OVER 49||Top||31-38||Win||100||21 h 44 m||Show|
50* RAMS/VIKINGS VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 49)
I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 49 in Thursday's NFL showdown between the Vikings and Rams. I know last week’s Thursday night game was a defensive battle between the Jets and Browns, but it still came within 1-point of going OVER the total. These Thursday night games are typically higher scoring. Not only do teams have just 3 days to prepare, but their bodies only get 3 days to recover. Defense is all about energy and effort and players just aren’t flying around the field like they would be on normal rest.
It also helps having one of the best offensive teams in the league playing. The Rams are making it look easy on the offensive side of the ball and as good as the Vikings are defensively, I don’t see them slowing down this attack, especially on the road. Not to mention, I think Los Angeles will be out to send a message against this Minnesota defense that held them to just 7 points last year. Reminds me a lot of their second meeting against the Seahawks last year. The Rams scored just 10-points in a loss at home to Seattle in Week 5, only to put up 42 on them in Week 15.
The Vikings defense will be without stud defensive end Everson Griffen and that's a huge loss for that stop unit against an elite offense.
As for Minnesota’s offense against the Rams defense. As bad as the Vikings looked offensively in that game against the Bills, that’s as bad as you will see them play on that side of the ball, probably the rest of the year. We also saw Los Angeles not look nearly as good on defense in their step up in competition after facing the Raiders and Cardinals the first two weeks. Philip Rivers threw for 2 scores and Melvin Gordon Rushed for 80 yards on just 15 carries, as the Charges amassed 356 yards.
The Rams are also dealing with some big injuries right now. Both Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib had to leave the game against the Chargers with ankle injuries. Both are out for this one and they will also be without linebacker Mark Barron. Kirk Cousins should be able to pick up big yards down the field and the Vikings will likely be forced to push the ball to try and keep pace with that Rams offense.
OVER is 30-15 in the Vikings last 45 games vs excellent passing teams that average 7.5+ yards per pass attempt and 13-3 in their last 16 road games vs elite teams that come in outscoring their opponents by 10+ points/game. Give me the OVER 49!