10* (CFB) Vanderbilt/Tennessee VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON: OVER 65.5

10* (CFB) USC/Nebraska VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON: OVER 59

10* (CFB) USC/Notre Dame VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON: OVER 60.5

10* (CFB) Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON: UNDER 53.5 

10* (CFB) Rutgers/Minnesota VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON: OVER 51

10* (CFB) N Carolina/UCF VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON: UNDER 47.5

10* (CFB) Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON: Texas Tech/Utah OVER 57

10* CFB - Clemson/Ga Tech VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON: UNDER 52.5

10* (CFB) JMU/Louisville VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON: OVER 58 

10* (CFB) Auburn/Baylor VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON: UNDER 58.5

10* (CFB) Nebraska/Cincinnati VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON: OVER 52.5

10* (CFB) College Football Classic (Dublin) VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON: Iowa State/Kansas State OVER 50.5

10* (CFB) USF/San Jose St VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON: OVER 64 

10* (CFB) WKU/James Madison VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON: UNDER 51 

10* NCAAF BIG TEN TOTAL OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON: Iowa/UCLA OVER 44.5

10* NCAAF - Tuesday MACTION VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON: Bowling Green/C Michigan UNDER 48.5

10* NCAAF OVER/UNDER PLAY OF THE WEEK 

PLAY ON: Houston/TCU OVER 51.5

10* NCAAF NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON: Tenn/NC State OVER 61

10* NCAAF Total PLAY OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON: Penn St/W Virginia OVER 51.5

10* NCAAF Sharp Money MASSACRE

PLAY ON: TCU/Stanford OVER 59.5

10* NCAAF Over/Under NO-BRAINER

PLAY ON: ND State/Colorado OVER 60.5

10* NCAAF "Week Zero" VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON: FSU/GA TECH OVER 55

10* NCAAF Liberty Bowl TOP PLAY 

PLAY ON: Memphis/Iowa St OVER 57.5

10* NCAAF Pre-Christmas PLAY OF THE YEAR 

PLAY ON: Arkansas St/N Illinois OVER 53.5

10* NCAAF Championship PLAY OF THE YEAR

PLAY ON: Alabama/Georgia OVER 55

10* NCAAF Utah/USC VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON UTAH/USC OVER 53

10* NCAAF - Miss St/Arkansas VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON MISS ST/ARKANSAS OVER 47.5

10* NCAAF S Miss/S Alabama VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON SOUTHERN MISS/SOUTH ALABAMA UNDER 51.5

10* NCAAF TCU/Iowa St VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON TCU/IOWA STATE OVER 52

10* NCAAF Big 12 TOTAL OF THE YEAR 

PLAY ON OKLAHOMA/TEXAS UNDER 60.5

10* NCAAF SEC TOTAL OF THE YEAR 

PLAY ON TEXAS A&M/ARKANSAS OVER 54.5

10* Auburn/Texas A&M SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON AUBURN/TEXAS A&M OVER 51

10* NCAAF Boise St/SDST MWC TOTAL OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON BOISE ST/SAN DIEGO ST UNDER 46.5 

10* NCAAF Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR 

PLAY ON COLORADO ST/COLORADO OVER 59

10* National Championship VEGAS INSIDER: TCU/Georgia OVER 63.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 63.5 in Monday's National Championship Game between TCU and Georgia. We saw all kinds of points being scored in the two Semifinal matchups with TCU beating Michigan 51-45 and Georgia knocking off Ohio State 42-41. I don't know if we will see this thing get into the 80's, but there should be no problem eclipsing the total of 63.5. 

TCU is simply built for high-scoring games. They have an elite offense and a sub-par defense. I don't see Georgia having any problems moving the ball up and down the field on this Horned Frogs stop unit. They were fortunate to only give up 45 points to the Wolverines in the Fiesta Bowl. 

The TCU offense did show me something with how well they moved the ball against a very good Michigan defense. The same Wolverines defense that held a potent Ohio State offense to just 23 points, giving up only 3 points in the 2nd half. We just saw the Buckeyes put up 41 on Georgia's defense. Not to mention the Bulldogs gave up 30 to LSU in the SEC title game. I think TCU can easily get into the 30s and I expect Georgia to as well. Give me the OVER 63.5! 

10* NCAAF Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Iowa St/TCU UNDER 48

I really like the UNDER 48 in Saturday's Big 12 shodown that has Iowa State going on the road to face TCU. I think the only real concern here is that the Cyclones don't show up given last week's 10-14 loss to Texas Tech ended any hope they had of getting to 6 wins and a bowl game. 

It's certainly a possibility and if that's the case we are probably in trouble. However, I feel pretty good about ISU not just throwing in the towel. Not against TCU. It would be one thing if TCU was 9-2 and needing this win to get to the Big 12 title game. The Horned Frogs are undefeated and ranked No. 4 in the country. I got to think ISU will be motivated here to put that perfect season to rest and really treat this game like it's their Super Bowl given it's the last time they will be on the field together. 

That to me is the key, because if the Cyclones defense shows up, there doesn't figure to be a lot of points scored in this game because this ISU defense is elite and their offense is at the other end of the spectrum. Cyclones have scored 21 or fewer points in more games than they have eclipsed that mark. I just don't see them doing a lot against this TCU defense. 

As for the Cyclones defense, I think they are better or at least equal to the Texas defense that held this TCU team to just 17 points and 284 total yards a couple weeks back. Give me the UNDER 48! 

10* NCAAF AAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Tulsa/Memphis OVER 61.5 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 61.5 in Thursday's American Athletic matchup between Tulsa and Memphis. I don't see these two teams having any problem eclipsing this number. Both of these teams have struggled on the defensive side of the ball. Tulsa is giving up 33 ppg and 404 ypg this season and have allowed 36 ppg on the road. Memphis is giving up 31.6 ppg and 412 ypg. They have given up 40 ppg over their last 3.

The only two FBS teams Tulsa has held under 30 points, are Temple who is anemic on offense and Tulane, who plays extremely slow and probably should have had more than the 27 they scored given they had over 480 yards with 357 on the ground. Teams have been able to really do whatever they want against this defense. I don't see them slowing down this Memphis on the road. The Tigers are putting up 33.9 ppg and on average are scoring 8.2 ppg more than what their opponent has allowed. 

Memphis has allowed 30+ points in each of their last 4 games and 6 of their last 7. The only exception coming against Temple. Tulsa has scored 27 or more in 6 of their 9 games this season. 

These are also going to be two tired defenses, as both of these teams are playing this game on just 4 days of rest. Give me the OVER 61.5! 

10* NCAAF Tuesday MACtion VEGAS INSIDER: Ohio/Miami (OH) OVER 50.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 50.5 in Tuesday's MAC matchup between Ohio and Miami (OH). These two teams combined for 68 points in the Bobcats 35-33 win over the RedHawks a season ago. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we saw a similar high-scoring game in the rematch, making this an easy play for me with a total in the low 50's. 

l just don't see Miami (OH) having an answer for Bobcats' quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who has put up sensational numbers in 2022. Rourke is averaging over 300 yards/game thru the air with a 21-4 TD-INT ratio and a stellar 9.0 yards/pass attempt. His ability to throw the ball plays right into the weakness of this RedHawks defense, which is just not good at creating havoc in the passing game. 

On the flip side of this, I like Miami's offense to also have a lot of success throwing the football in this game. The RedHawks just recently got back starting quarterback Brett Gabbert, who was hurt in their opener against Kentucky. Gabbert has been a little rusty in his first two starts back, but will be up against a Ohio defense that has struggled to get stops this season. The Bobcats are giving up 33.2 ppg, 483 ypg and 6.5 yards/play. They have been especially bad against the pass, allowing opposing QBs to complete 66.3% of their attempts with a 8.3 average per attempt. Give me the OVER 50.5! 

10* NCAAF - Friday Night Total NO-BRAINER: Oregon St/Washington UNDER 54.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 54.5 in Friday's Pac-12 matchup between Washington and Oregon State. I just don't see this being a shootout. I know Washington has played in a lot of high-scoring games, but this Oregon State defense really matches up well with what the Huskies like to do offensively.

Washington is all about attacking teams thru the air. They come in averaging 379 passing yards/game. Passing on this Oregon State defense is not easy. Opposing quarterbacks are completing just 55.6% of their attempts against the Beavers and that's against QBs that on average are completing 62.5% of their attempts. Mother Nature could also slow down the Huskies ariel attack, as there will be 15-20 mph with the real feel in the upper 30s. 

Oregon State on the other hand is going to establish the run and as long as they are within striking distance, I don't see them abandoning it. Beavers on average run 66 plays and 39 (59%) of those are runs. They are pretty good at it, averaging 5.0 yards/carry. I think they can move the chains on the ground, but I also think Washington's run defense is good enough to limit the explosive plays and create the negative plays to end drives. Give me the UNDER 54.5! 

10* NCAAF - Late Night TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Arizona/Oregon OVER 69.5

I love the OVER 69.5 in Saturday's late night action out of the Pac-12 between No. 12 Oregon and Arizona. I'm not so sure the books can set a total high enough for this one. If it wasn't for the fact that the Ducks scored just 3-points in that ugly opening loss to Georgia, I think it would be at the very least in the mid 70s. 

In the 4 games since getting completely shutdown by the defending champs, Oregon has put up 70 points and 604 total yards against Eastern Washington, 41 points and 439 yards on BYU, 44 points and 624 yards on Washington State (Cougars have allowed 20 or fewer in every other game) and 45 points and 515 yards in last week's blowout win over Stanford. 

It feels like anything less than 40 points against this Arizona defense would be a disappointment. In the Wildcats two conference games, they have allowed 49 points to Cal and 20 points to Colorado. In Cal's 3 other games vs a FBS opponent they have scored a combined 46 points. The Buffaloes 20-points they scored on the Wildcats was a season-high. Arizona is giving up 31.2 ppg vs teams who on average score 24.9 ppg. 

They key here is think the Wildcats have the talent at quarterback and skill positions to put up enough points to push this thing well past the mark. Arizona has scored at least 31 points in all but one game against a very good Mississippi State defense. They are averaging 481 ypg and 6.6 yards/play. 

Oregon's defense has been solid in their 3 home games, but they gave up that 49 points on a neutral site to Georgia, which is looking worse and worse with how the Bulldogs have struggled offensively of late and 41 at Washington State. This could very well end up being the highest scoring game on the board this Saturday. Give me the OVER 69.5! 

10* NCAAF Pac-12 Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Washington/UCLA UNDER 65.5

I love the UNDER 65.5 in Friday's Pac-12 showdown between No. 15 Washington and UCLA. Both of these teams come into this game with a perfect 4-0 record. The big reason we are seeing such a big total is the offensive numbers that these two teams have put up. The Huskies are scoring 44.0 ppg and 531 ypg, while the Bruins are putting up 41.8 ppg and 508 ypg. 

I don't think either of these teams will be able to sustain these numbers. Yes, Washington has two wins over Power 5 teams in Michigan State and Stanford, but both of those teams are bad defensive teams. Michigan State gave up 34 points and 508 total yards last week at home against Minnesota. USC had 505 yards and 41 points against the Cardinal and then only managed to score 17 with 357 total yards in 3-point win at Oregon State. 

As for UCLA's great offensive numbers, it's come against a super soft schedule. Bruins 4 games have come against Bowling Green, Alabama St, S Alabama and Colorado. Those teams combined are giving up an average of 38.1 ppg. 

The other big thing here is these two defenses are performing well. Washington is only giving up 19.0 ppg, 302 ypg and 4.8 yards/play. UCLA is allowing 18.0 ppg, 301 ypg and 4.4 yards/play. 

Another thing that could work against the Huskies offense, is the fact that this will be Washington's first road game of 2022. 

These two are going to need a minimum of 10 scores (9 TDs and 1 FG is 66 points) to get past this number. I just don't think the red zone efficiency is going to be at that level. Give me the UNDER 65.5! 

10* NCAAF - SEC Total PLAY OF THE MONTH: S Carolina/Arkansas OVER 52.5

I will take my chances with the OVER 52.5 in Saturday's SEC matchup between Arkansas and South Carolina. This to me is just way too low a total for a game involving the Razorbacks. 

Arkansas is absolutely loaded on the offensive side of the ball and it starts with sophomore quarterback KJ Jefferson, who somehow is still flying a bit under the radar. Jefferson is special and the biggest reason why the Razorbacks went 9-4 last year after not winning more than 4 games in any of the previous 4 seasons. It also helps he's playing behind one of the better offensive lines in the country. Arkansas put up 30.9 ppg and 442 ypg last year and will easily top that in 2022. 

They scored 31 points with 447 yards against Cincinnati in the opener. I know the Bearcats lost some guys on the defensive side of the ball, but that was far from a pushover for the Arkansas offense. I don't see South Carolina's defense being able to stop them, especially with the game in Fayetteville. 

The key here is I also think South Carolina's offense is poised to put up some points in this game. They gave up 438 yards (325 passing) to a Cincinnati offense that lost one of their all-time best QBs in Desmond Ridder, as well as their top back and leading receiver. 

Both starting safety Jalen Catalon and starting nickel corner Myles Slusher were hurt in that game and did not return. Good chance neither play on Saturday. 

South Carolina's offense wasn't overly impressive in their win against Georgia State, but remember they got former Oklahoma starter Spencer Rattler under center. Rattler can spark big plays and quick scores and he's also one that will take chances and give the ball away, setting up short fields and quick scores for the other side. Give me the OVER 52.5! 

10* NCAAF Friday Night TOTAL NO-BRAINER: TCU/Colorado OVER 55

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 55 in Friday's Power 5 non-conference matchup between TCU and Colorado. I don't think these two teams will have any problem getting to 60 points and it could even go into the 70s. 

A big reason I'm so high on the OVER is I think people are really sleeping on this TCU offense. The Horned Frogs brought in Sonny Dykes to replace Gary Patterson and Dykes knows how to put up points. In his last 3 years at SMU, the Mustangs put up monster numbers. Even better is Dykes was able to bring along his OC Garrett Riley. 

These two will take over an offense that returns 10 starters from a unit that averaged a misleading 28.7 ppg. I say misleading, because they averaged a healthy 436 ypg (17 more ypg than they had in 2017 when they averaged 33.6 ppg. 

They got options at quarterback with the return of starter Max Duggan and backup Chandler Morris, who transferred in from Oklahoma last year (had 461 passing yards vs Oklahoma and could overtake Duggan). 

They get back a stud RB in Kenre Miller, return their top 4 pass catchers and on paper have one of the best O-lines in the country. I think they easily average a TD more a game and really should feast on what figures to be a sub-par Colorado defense. 

They key here is I think the Buffaloes will also be able to generate some offense. Colorado isn't elite offensively, but should be greatly improved over the unit that averaged just 18.8 ppg and 257 ypg last year. TCU's defense will be improved, but they are in the first year of a new system and gave up 34.9 ppg and 462 ypg in 2021. Give me the OVER 55! 

50* (CFB) - Non-Playoffs BOWL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 54.5) 

I think the books have completely missed the mark with this total. I get that Air Force only gave up 19.1 ppg and 289 ypg on the season, but a lot of that has to do with the schedule. The Falcons didn't play a single Power 5 opponent in non-conference play. 

The two best offenses they faced in MWC play were arguably Utah State and Nevada. They lost 45-49 to the Aggies and won 41-39 over the Wolfpack. 

Louisville is without a couple wideouts, but they got a top tier talent at quarterback in Malik Jackson and he's more than enough weapons to work with. 

Not only do I think the Cardinals will score a bunch, but I don't think the Louisville defense will be able to slow down Air Force's triple-option. They weren't a good run defense and have not seen an offense like this in a long time. Give me the OVER 54.5! 

50* (CFB) - Mizzu/Army MAX UNIT Top Play (Over 53) 

I think we have had a bit of perfect storm that has created a golden opportunity to play the OVER. Army is coming off that defensive battle against Navy and I just think the perception here is that with a team like the Black Knights that want to run, run and run some more, there's not going to be as much scoring. 

That can be the case if they are playing a team that can stop the run, but that's not the case here. Missouri has one of the worst run defenses in the country. They finished the year giving up 229 yards/game and 5.5 yards/carry vs the run. We saw Army rush for 416 yards and score 56 points against Wake Forest, so it's not like they can't score a bunch with that offense. 

The other big thing here is Missouri's top running back Tyler Badie (led SEC in rushing) won't play and they are going to give freshman Brady Cook his first start. Not having Badie is a big deal, but I do think the Tigers got some decent backs who can step in and have success, as the Mizzu o-line should have an edge against the Army defensive front. 

As for Cook, he's played sparingly and impressed. He played in their blowout loss against Georgia and completed 14 of 19 attempts. You got to think they are going to let him sling it in this game and he's going to have to with how much the defense figures to struggle. Give me the OVER 53! 

50* (CFB) - PAC-12 Oregon/Utah TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 58.5)

I love the UNDER 58.5 in Friday's Pac-12 Championship Game between Utah and Oregon. These two teams just played a couple weeks ago in Utah. The Utes embarrassed the Ducks 38-7, ending all hope for Oregon to make the College Football Playoff. 

As good as Utah looked in that win, you can't underestimate how much of an advantage they had playing that game at home. I think we are going to see a much better effort defensively from Oregon in the rematch, especially on the defensive side of the ball. 

I also think that these are two teams that want to establish the run. Utah ran it 50 times in the win over the Ducks a couple weeks ago and Oregon's a team that averages close to 40 rush attempts per game on the season. 

I just think it's going to be a defensive battle with both teams struggling to not only sustain drives, but finish them off in the red zone with touchdowns. Give me the UNDER 58.5! 

50* (CFB) - Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 66.5) 

I love the OVER 66.5 in Saturday's Big 12 showdown between Oklahoma and Texas Tech. I'm shocked the number here isn't in the 70's. I think some of that has to do with Oklahoma's lackluster performance this past Saturday against Kansas, but I'm not one that's going to read a lot into the Sooners not playing their best against the worst team in the conference. 

If anything I think that's a positive here, as it's going to make Oklahoma that much more motivated to get off to a strong start offensively in this game. I also think you got to look at what Oklahoma has done as a whole since Caleb Williams has replaced Spencer Rattler at quarterback. 

He was 100% the reason they were able to rally from that huge deficit in their 55-48 win over Texas and the very week he guided this team to 52 points in a win over TCU that saw 83 combined points. 

It wouldn't surprise me at all, if Oklahoma put up 50+ in this game. We have already seen Texas Tech give up that number twice, as Texas scored 70 on them and TCU had 52. 

Even if Oklahoma were to only get to 40, we would only need 27 from Tech to get the OVER and the Red Raiders are scoring 34.3 ppg and the fewest they have scored in any game all season is 23. This is also not a very good Sooners defense and the fact that KU was able to put up 23 points with over 400 yards of offense is probably the biggest takeaway you should take from that game. Give me the OVER 66.5! 

50* (CFB) - Big Ten TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 50.5) 

I was shocked when I saw this total in the 50s, but I guess I'm not shocked when you look at the offensive numbers that these two teams have put up. Michigan State is scoring 34.3 ppg, 452 yards/game and 7.0 yards/play, while Michigan comes in at 37.7 ppg, 443 ypg and 6.3 yards/play. 

We can start to uncover the value when we look at just conference games. If you only focus on Big Ten opponents, Michigan State is scoring just 28.0 ppg, 398.5 ypg and 6.6 yards/play, which Michigan goes down to 30.8 ppg, 389.0 ypg and 5.3 yards/play. 

The other big thing here is the schedule. Both Michigan and Michigan State have played very favorable schedules to this point. The Wolverines are 4-0 in Big Ten play with wins over Rutgers, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Northwestern. They did score 38 against the Badgers, but only had 365 yards and it was a 20-10 game going into the 4th quarter. The Spartans are 4-0 in Big Ten play with wins over Northwestern, Nebraska, Rutgers and Indiana and they only managed to score 23 vs the Cornhuskers and 20 last time out vs the Hoosiers. 

These are also two offensive teams that want to run the football and are going up against two defenses that have been really good at stopping the run. Michigan is only giving up 3.6 yards/carry and Michigan State is allowing only 3.3 yards/carry. 

I just think in a game of this magnitude, both teams are going to be a little more conservative out of the gate and all the running for 3-4 yards is going to eat up the clock and keep this thing in the low 40s. Give me the UNDER 50.5! 

50* (CFB) - App St/Lafayette MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 57) 

I like the UNDER 57 in Tuesday's Sun Belt action between Appalachian State and Louisiana Lafayette. This is a pretty big matchup in the Sun Belt. Most had these two teams picked to win their respective divisions and meet up in the conference title game. Both are off to a strong 4-1 start and are undefeated in conference play. More times than not, big games are lower-scoring than expected. 

I also like how these two teams matchup. Both teams offensively want to establish the run game. Ragin' Cajuns run in 54% of the time and the Mountaineers rush it 57% of the time. Lafayette also likes to play at a slower pace (T-70th in plays/game). 

While these aren't elite run defenses, I think both are a little better vs the run than what people think. App State's numbers are solid. They only give up 118 ypg and 3.6 ypc. However, that's come against teams who average 151 ypg and 4.2 ypc. Lafayette's numbers look a lot worse. They are giving up 171 ypg and 4.1 ypc. However, that's come against teams averaging 190 ypg and 4.8 ypc. Ragin' Cajuns should also get a boost defensively playing at home. 

UNDER has cashed in 7 of the 9 meetings between these two teams. Last year they combined for just 45 in a 24-21 Lafayette win. Neither team sniffed 300 yards of offense. Cajuns ran it 45 times to 24 pass attempts. Mountaineers ran it 49 times to 21 pass attempts. Just don't see enough possessions to surpass this number. Give me the UNDER 57! 

50* (CFB) Marshall/App State MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 60.5) 

I saw this total start to climb early in the week and quickly grabbed the UNDER 60.5 as soon as I saw the first book go back the other way (why it's so important to be a long-term client, so you get the play as soon as it's published and don't miss out on better numbers). 

I just don't see these two teams going up and down the field the way you need to eclipse a number like this. It's really a prime example of how much more people focus on a team's offensive numbers than their defense. 

Marshall is averaging 43.7 ppg and 604 ypg. Impressive. However, they have played Navy, NC Central and East Carolina. They should have great numbers. It's going to be a whole lot tougher against a very good Appalachian State defense. The Mountaineers are giving up just 18.0 ppg and 349 ypg. That's with them playing a road game at Miami, FL. 

It's similar on the other side. Appalachian State is averaging 33.3 ppg and 446 ypg, but are actually underperforming if you take into account the teams they have faced are giving up on average 36.4 ppg and 480 ypg. The Mountaineers are also a team that wants to run the ball, which is great for eating up the clock. Marshall's defense has also been pretty good, giving up just 19.7 ppg and 379 ypg. 

I also think you got to put some decent stock into last year's game between these two teams, which ended in a 17-7 Marshall win. The Herd ran it 45 times to just 25 passes and App State had 33 carries. Books were way off on that one too, as the total was 59.5. Give me the UNDER 60.5! 

50* (CFB) - Sharp Money TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 56.5) 

I think the fact that BC lost starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec to injury has created some big time value on the OVER in Saturday's game against Temple. I just don't think the drop off to backup Dennis Grosel is as big as people might think. Grosel came in relief of Jurkovec in last week's 45-28 win over UMass and completed 11 of 14 for 199 yards. 

There's also last year's season finale at Virginia, where Grosel got the start for an inured Jurkovec. He was 32 of 46 (69.6%) for 520 yards and 4 scores. I don't see the Owls having any kind of answer for this BC passing attack. 

Don't be fooled by Temple's defense in their first two games. While they held Rutgers to just 365 total yards, the Scarlet Knights put up 61 on the Owls. Even an awful Akron team that didn't score a point until the 4th quarter against Auburn was able to put up 24 points. Let's also not forget that same Rutgers offense that shredded Temple had just 17 points and 195 total yards in their game against Syracuse last week. 

It's not out of the question here that BC could put up a 50 spot. I certainly think they can get to at least 40. That means we just need a little bit out of this Temple offense to cash a winner. 

I think they can. Boston College's defense isn't anything special. If UMass can score 28 against them, so can Temple. My numbers have this game at 64.5. That's a full 8 points of value we are getting. Give me the OVER 56.5! 

50* (CFB) - Non Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK (UNDER 60) 

I really like the UNDER 60 in Saturday's non-conference matchup between USC and San Jose State. The total here is suggesting a shootout, but I'm not convinced that will be the case. 

I know USC has a really good quarterback in Kedon Slovis, but he's got a lot of new faces it receiver. He gets back his top guy in Drake London, but his second and third favorite targets are gone and two guys that were expected to start are not expected to be available for this game. 

You also have to look at what they will be going up against. San Jose State went 7-1 and won the MWC title behind the play of their defense. The Spartans only gave up 19.9 ppg and 346 ypg last year and have 10 of their 11 starters back.

If they can just keep USC from going off for 40+, it's going to be hard for this to get to 60. That's because the Trojans are absolutely loaded on the defensive side of the ball, especially up front on the defensive line and at linebacker. 

For San Jose State to score, they are going to have to have a ton of big plays in the passing game. I just don't see it. They get back starting QB Nick Starkel, but he's got to make due without his top two targets from last year in Bailey Gaither and Tre Walker. Those two had 86 catches for 1,352 yards and 8 scores. Give me the UNDER 60! 

50* (CFB) UNC/Va Tech ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Under 64) 

I will take the UNDER 64 in Friday's ACC showdown between North Carolina and Virginia Tech. I think there's a couple factors that have the number here way too high. One of those being how high scoring last year's game was. The Tar Heels won 56-45 as the two put up over 100 points. 

The other is the perception of UNC and how potent are thinking their offense will be with Sam Howell back under center (talk he might be the No. 1 pick in next year's NFL Draft). 

I just don't see a repeat of last year. You got to remember that Va Tech had a number of defensive guys miss time because of injury or covid. They also were in the midst of a transition from legendary defensive coordinator Bud Williams. New offensive coordinator Justin Hamilton was behind the 8-ball from the get go. I wouldn't be surprised if the Hokies shaved over a TD off their 32.1 ppg they allowed last year. 

I also look at UNC's defense as being much improved. Tar Heels got 10 starters back from a very young unit that suffered through some growing pains. They got the size and speed to be one of the best defenses in Chapel Hill in more than a decade. 

As for Howell and the Tar Heels offense, there's no denying Howell's talents. It's not him that has me concerned about the UNC offense. It's the fact that the Tar Heels lost two 1,000 yards rushers, as well as their top two receivers (combined 1,783 yards, 14 TDs). I don't see this offense being near as potent in 2021, especially not early in the year. Give me the UNDER 64! 

50* (CFB) - Big Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 58.5) 

I love the OVER 58.5 in Thursday's matchup that has NC State hosting USF. I would be shocked if these two teams failed to hit 60 in this one. 

NC State is going to have a potent offense in 2021. I really like sophomore quarterback Devin Leary. He only made 3 starts last year before being lost for the season. He threw for 890 yards with a 8-2 TD/INT ratio in those 3 starts. They got everyone back at the skill positions and a veteran offensive line. 

That offense will be up against a Bulls defense that has a lot of question marks. South Florida couldn't stop anybody last year. They gave up 39.9 ppg and 441 ypg. That's with them holding the Citadel to a mere 6-points on 284 yards. They gave up over 200 ypg and 5.0 ypc against the run and opposing QBs completed 60% of their attempts. 

The big key here is I think USF is going to be able to put up a decent amount of points as well. Even with 10 starters back on defense, I got big time concerns with the Wolfpack on that side of the ball. They gave up 40+ points 4 times. 

As for the Bulls offense, I think they are going to be one of the most improved units in the country after averaging just 23.1 ppg and 365 ypg last year. They got one of the rising stars at OC in Charlie Weis Jr. The problem last year is it was the first year under a new staff and their just wasn't the proper time to implant the offense with the pandemic. We saw a bit of a flash of their potential in last year's finale, as they put up 46 points and nearly 650 yards (646) in a game against UCF. Give me the OVER 58.5! 

50* OLE MISS/INDIANA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 65) 

Whenever Ole Miss is involved it's almost always going to end up being a high-scoring game and I don't see any reason why this will be any different. I know Indiana lost starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr., but backup Jack Tuttle has had more than enough time to prepare for this game, as Indiana hasn't played since Dec. 5. 

More importantly, Tuttle won't have to do it all against this awful Ole Miss defense. Indiana has a big time running back to carry the load in Stevie Scott III, who will be up against a Rebels defense that allows 211 rushing yards/game and 5.4 yards/carry. 

As for the Ole Miss offense, few teams have been able to slow down Lane Kiffin's attack. The Rebels averaged 40.7 ppg (allowed 40.3 ppg). They did so with a very balanced attack, as they averaged 218 rushing yards/game and 345 passing yards/game. 

The only two offense that the Hoosiers faced that are close to this Ole Miss attack is Penn State and Ohio State and they couldn't really stop either. The Nittany Lions put up 35 points on 488 yards, while the Buckeyes scored 42 and had over 600 yards of total offense. Give me the OVER 65! 

50* HAWAII/HOUSTON NEW MEXICO BOWL TOP PLAY (Over 59.5) 

I'm going to take the OVER 59.5 between Hawaii and Houston on Christmas Eve. I just don't see either team putting up of a fight on the defensive end. That's because I don't see either defense being able to slow down the run game.

Hawaii hasn't been able to stop the run all season. The Rainbow Warriors go into this game allowing 231 rushing yards/game and 5.4 yards/carry. Houston is slightly better, allowing only 173 yards/game and 4.3 yards/carry, but they will be without two of their best players in linebacker Grant Stuard and defensive end Payton Turner. Stuard is a massive loss as he's the one guy that you can always count on being around the ball. His 61 tacklers are 32 more than the next best player on this team. 

I know wind could be a bit of a factor, but I don't think it will be enough to keep these offenses from putting up points. When you can run the ball, your chances of finishing drives with TDs and not FGs goes up dramatically. I also think both teams are going to have to sell out on the run, which should leave some big opportunities in the pass game. Give me the OVER 59.5! 

50* GEORGIA/MIZZU NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 54) 

I'm a bit shocked the total here is this low, as I think both of these teams can and will be able to put points on the board this Saturday. This is not the same Georgia offense that we saw early in the year now that J.T. Daniels is at quarterback. 

Daniels made his first start two games ago against a good Mississippi State defense and completed 28 of 38 for 401 yards and 4 scores. While he only threw for 139 yards in last weeks game against South Carolina, he only had to attempt 16 passes. They still put up 471 yards, as they racked up 332 rushing yards. In his two games as a starter they are averaging 440 yards, well above their season average of 397. 

I see no reason why Georgia won't be able to put up a big number against Missouri's defense. The Tigers just allowed Arkansas to score 48 with 292 rushing yards and 274 passing yards. Really any time this Tigers defense has faced a capable offense they have struggled. They allowed 41 to Florida, 41 to LSU, 38 to Alabama and also 35 to a bad Tennessee offense. 

Georgia's defense is good but not elite like it has been or was expected to be this year. Their biggest weakness is stopping the pass and Missouri has racked up 380 passing yards in each of their last two games. I really think both teams will score in the 30s and all we really need is for one to hit this total. Give me the OVER 54! 

50* BC/VIRGINIA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 54.5) 

I think these two are going to fly past the total of 54.5. Both of these teams have the ability to put up points. Virginia has scored at least 31 in each of their last 3 games. BC has scored 31 or more in each of their last two. 

Not only can both teams score, but both teams are pretty good at giving up points. The Cavaliers have allowed 38 or more in 4 games this season. The Eagles have allowed 27 or more in 6 of their last 7 games. They only exception coming against low life Syracuse. I think there's a good chance both teams score 30 in this one and we don't even need that. 28-27 would do the trick. 

OVER is also 9-2 in Virginia's last 11 home games and the average combined score in these 11 games is 63.6. Almost a full 10 points more than the number we are playing. Give me the OVER 54.5! 

50* GEORGIA/S CAROLINA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 49) 

I really think people are sleeping on the Bulldogs right now. I think the perception is that because Georgia no longer has a clear path to the SEC East title and thus the playoffs, this team doesn't care. 

I get that expectations are sky-high with this Bulldogs' program, but I don't that this was like previous years in terms of hype. I mean Georgia didn't have their guy at QB to start the year. If J.T. Daniels (USC transfer) would have been ready from the start I think this team would have beat Florida and who knows against Alabama. 

Daniels finally got on the field last week and was spectacular, throwing for 401 yards and 4 TDs against Mississippi State. I get the Bulldogs aren't a great team, but they have put up pretty good defensive numbers this season. Either way, 400 yards and 4 TDs is impressive.

I see no reason to not keep letting Daniels chuck the ball around the field. There's nothing to lose for Georgia at this point. I really wouldn't be shocked at all if the Bulldogs flirted with this total on their own. South Carolina has allowed 48 or more points in 3 of their last 4. Give me the OVER 49!  

50* PURDUE/MINNESOTA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 59.5) 

We will take our chances here with Minnesota and Purdue combining for at least 60 points in Friday's Big Ten action. While each of the last two games for the Gophers went UNDER, one was a result of their opponent not being able to score (Illinois) and last week it was Iowa's defense taking away the running game, as Minnesota managed just 7 points after scoring 40+ in each of their previous two games. 

The Gophers offense is much better when they run the ball, but note that last year they scored 38 on Purdue with just 92 rushing yards, as Tanner Morgan threw for 396 yards and 4 scores. Boilermakers had 31 points of their own, as the two combined for 69 points. 

OVER is also 37-17 in the Gophers last 54 at home off a game where they failed to cover and a dominant 22-8 in their last 30 as a home dog of 7 or less. Give me the OVER 59.5! 

50* N ILLINOIS/BALL ST *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Under 62) 

I know these are two defenses that have struggled to keep points off the scoreboard. Northern Illinois is giving up 44.4 ppg and Ball State is allowing 34.5 ppg. I just think the numbers are a bit inflated for Northern Illinois. 

The Huskies combined for 79 points in their opener against Buffalo, losing 49-30. However, the Bulls scored 3 defensive touchdowns. A game that was just 21-16 at the half turned into 49-16 in less than 20 minutes on the clock.

In last week's game against Central Michigan, it was 26-0 going into the 4th quarter before the two teams put up 24 to end up at 50. 

Given how much Northern Illinois struggles to score, I just don't see these two teams getting to 63 unless there's a bunch of crazy scores. 

Also, both of these teams like to run the ball and both offenses might be even more inclined to run in this game. There's expected to be crosswinds approaching 20 mph. This should help limit the possessions with fewer big plays thru the air. Give me the UNDER 62! 

50* IOWA/MINNESOTA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 58) 

I firmly believe that Minnesota is going to be a great OVER team this year. I took the OVER 65 in their game last week at Illinois and it didn't cash, but they did get to 55 points and it was against arguably the worst offense in the Big Ten. 

Gophers did their part scoring 41 points on 541 total yards of offense. Minnesota is now averaging 36.3 ppg, 444 ypg and 6.3 yards/play. This is no shocker. This team averaged 34.1 ppg last year and returned 9 starters. 

It's the defense where they lost a bunch of talent and it showed in their first two games, as they gave up 49 to Michigan at home and 45 to Maryland on the road. I don't think it magically got better against Illinois. The Illini are just that bad offensively and they were missing some key guys. 

Iowa's offense put up 49 last week, but did only score 20 in their first two games against Purdue and Northwestern. I just think the Hawkeyes are going to be able to do as they please against Minnesota. Iowa's o-line should have their way and that's going to lead to a lot of big runs and plays down the field. 

As for the Hawkeyes defense. It's your typical Kirk Ferentz defense, but I don't think it's quite as good as we have seen the last couple of years. They should also open up/relax a little if the offense is able to move the ball at will. Give me the OVER 58! 

50* CLEMSON/LSU CHAMP GAME PLAY OF THE YEAR (UNDER 68.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 68.5. I was all over the UNDER in the Clemson/Ohio State semifinal matchup and I see this as a very similar matchup, yet we are getting almost a touchdown more to work with as that total was 62. 

I think the 16 days off between games is a big advantage for the defenses, especially when you factor in the two outstanding defensive coordinators that these two teams have. Not to mention the talent on the defensive side for both sides. 

Another thing that I think gets overlooked is the pressure of this game and how the nerves can play into the outcome. I think both teams will be cautious to make a mistake early and they really can't afford any letdowns to eclipse a total like this, as they have average more than 17 points a quarter to eclipse this mark. Give me the UNDER 68.5! 

50* CFB PLAYOFFS SEMIFINAL PLAY OF THE YEAR (Under 64)

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 64. Not to take anything away from these two offenses, I think the great offensive numbers for both teams are a result of the bad teams they faced in their conferences. You look at Clemson only scoring 24 against Texas A&M at home and Ohio State not producing at near the same level against the top teams in the Big 10. I just think both teams will have a much harder time moving the ball than the number suggests. 

50* USC/COLO PAC-12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 62)

You can pencil in USC for a minimum of 30-points in this one and it wouldn’t surprise me if they eclipsed the 40-point mark. Colorado has given up at least 30 in every game. The only team giving up more passing yards/game than the 316 ypg the Buffaloes are allowing is New Mexico. Trojans Kedon Slovis had 377 against Stanford earlier this season and should go off here.

Also, I’m aware USC could be down their top 3 running backs. Starter Vavae Malepeai is out for the season, Stephen Carr and Markese Stepp are both questionable. Sometimes injuries can uncover a star and the Trojans are hoping that is the case for freshman Kenan Christon, who needed just 8 carries to rack up 103 yards and 2 scores. He’s got incredible speed and is a legit threat to go the distance any time he touches the ball.

Key here is I believe the Colorado offense will snap out of it’s recent funk and do their part to get us over the mark. Playing at home will definitely help and USC is dealing with all kinds of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. They were without their top 3 corners and defensive end Christian Rector last week. They added safety Talanoe Hufanga and star defensive linemen Drake Jackson to the injury list. Give me the OVER 62!

50* NCAAF BIG TEN TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 60) 

I think these two are going to fly OVER the total tonight. Penn State is coming off a very misleading 17-10 final against Pitt. That game was played in the rain and the sloppy field conditions really limited both offenses. That same Pitt defense gave up 34 points and over 400 yards of offense against UCF. 

Penn State is young on the offensive side of the ball, but they got big time talent across the board. Maryland's defense gave up 400 yards to Syracuse and 427 to Temple. Neither of those offenses are anything close to as good as what they will see from the Nittany Lions. 

At the same time, I like what I have seen from the Terps offensively in 2019. Joshua Jackson looks like a great fit (Va Tech transfer) and I think there are some definitely holes in the Penn State defense. While they held Buffalo to a mere 13 points, they gave up 429 total yards to the Buffaloes. Same thing against Pitt, they held the Panthers to 10 points despite allowing 394 yards (gave up 372 passing yards). I think both teams easily hit 30 points. Give me the OVER 60! 

50* NCAAF FRIDAY NIGHT OVER/UNDER KNOCKOUT (Over 56.5)

I'll gladly take my chances with the oVER 56.6 in Friday's matchup between Marshall and Boise State. Two talented young quarterbacks will be guiding the two offenses in this one. Thundering Herd send out sophomore Isaiah Green, who was the C-USA Freshman Player of the Year in 2018. Green is expected to make a big jump this year and just set a new career-high with 4 TD passes in their Week 1 win. Boise State has true freshman Hank Bachmeier looking to build on quite the first start. Bachmeier threw for 407 yards in a win at Florida State. The most impressive thing is they trusted him enough to let him air it out 51 times. Boise as a team ran 108 plays. I think there will be a lot of big plays in the passing game and for this to easily hit 60. Give me the OVER 56.5! 

50* MIAMI/FLORIDA NCAAF WEEK ZERO TOP PLAY (Under 47)

If I had to take a side, I would grab the points with the Hurricanes, but I feel the better value is with the UNDER 47 on the total.

Miami has without a doubt one of the best front seven’s in college football. They got 3 potential NFL linebackers who all turned down the NFL to return for their senior season. This defense led the country last year in tackles for loss.

One of the things that gets overlooked by the public when they look at the early season matchups is the talent returning/lost along the offensive line. Last year Florida had all 5 starters back on the offensive line. It’s a big reason why they had such a strong running back and Feleipe Franks was able to make a big jump. This year only one starter is back and I just don’t see them being able to handle that front of the Hurricanes.

It’s a very similar story on the other side of the ball. Florida has so much talent on the defensive side of the ball and should have one of the best defensive lines in the country. Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham is one of those guys that it really doesn’t matter the talent, he’s going to field a top tier defense. He’s got 8 starters back on that side of the ball.

Miami loses 3 starters on the offensive line, don’t have near the same talent at running back as they did a season ago and will be starting red-shirt freshman Jarren Williams at quarterback. Williams surprised everyone by beating out returning sophomore N’Kosi Pery and Ohio State transfer Tate Martell.

Not only will it be difficult for both teams to move the ball, you have to think that if/when they do get in the redzone they will have to end up settling for field goals.

UNDER is 20-7 in the Gators last 27 matchups with a team from the ACC and 7-1 in the Hurricanes last 8 neutral site contests. Give me the UNDER 47!

50* TEXAS TECH/TCU BIG 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 61) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 61 in Thursday's Big 12 clash between Texas Tech and TCU. I just think the public can’t help themselves when it comes to playing the OVER in games involving Texas Tech. So far it’s paid off great, as the OVER is 4-1 in the Red Raiders’ first 5 games. However, I believe the books know that’s where the money is going to come in and have inflated this number quite a bit. 

Last year TCU went on the road and beat Texas Tech 27-3 for a combined score of just 30 points, which was well below the posted total for that matchup of 54. The year before that we saw a ridiculous total of 87.5 and the game ended up 27-24 for a total of just 51.

I think it’s going to be the same old story in this one. This high-powered Texas Tech offense will be up against one of the best defenses in the country. TCU ranks 35th against the run (125.6 ypg) and are 23rd vs the pass (178.0 ypg). Gary Patterson knows how to slow down this Red Raiders attack and he’s had nearly two weeks to get his defense prepared. I also think the game being played at home is huge for TCU’s defense, as they should be able to feed off the crowd.

We also don’t know who is going to be at quarterback for the Red Raiders. Week 1 starter McLane Carter is questionable with an ankle injury and his replacement, Alan Bowman is doubtful after suffering a collapsed lung against West Virginia. I believe they end up going with Jett Duffey, who replaced Bowman vs West Virginia. I think that's going to be a problem for Texas Tech. Duffey is a much bigger threat with his legs than his arm and has already thrown 3 interceptions on just 36 attempts.

TCU is also dealing with an injury to their starting quarterback, as Shawn Robinson hurt his non-throwing shoulder in the final minutes against Iowa State. Patterson has said he will be available, but may not start. Regardless of who starts, the Horned Frogs are built to run the football and one of the reasons they were able to hold Texas Tech to just 3-points last year in Lubbock, is they ran it so effectively. TCU had 204 rushing yards compared to just 85 passing (only attempted 17 passes). Patterson knows that the best way to slow down this Red Raiders offense is to keep them on the sidelines.

It’s also worth noting the UNDER is 21-6 in the Horned Frogs last 27 conference games, 11-4 in their last 15 overall and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 off a bye. UNDER is also 4-1 in Texas Tech’s last 5 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 vs conference foes. Give me the UNDER 61! 

50* NCAAF 'SEC' TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Ole Miss/Alabama OVER 70) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 70 in Saturday's big SEC clash between Ole Miss and Alabama. For starters, these two teams have combined for at least 69 points in each of the last 3 meetings. Last time they played in Oxford, Alabama won 48-43 in a game that had a total of just 53. I know 70 points is a lot, but I just have a hard time seeing these two not reaching that mark.

This isn’t your typical Alabama offense that we have seen in the past under Nick Saban. Sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is the most gifted signal-caller Saban has had in his decade-plus run at Alabama. His ability to shred opposing secondaries, makes this unit almost impossible to stop. You still can’t stop the Crimson Tide from running the football, but if you load the box Tagovailoa is going to make you pay.

There might be some SEC teams that can hold them in check to some degree, but I certainly don’t think one of those is Ole Miss. The Rebels gave up 34.6 ppg last year and don’t look all that improved in 2018. They gave up 486 yards to Texas Tech in their opener and the Red Raiders had to replace their starting QB, leading rusher and 5 of their top 6 pass catchers. They followed that up by allowing 41 points and 629 yards to an FCS school.

I think Alabama has a great shot here of scoring 50 or more points and that means we need just a little bit of help from the Rebels to push this over the total. I know the Crimson Tide defense has looked great in their first two games, but there’s a ton of talent on the Ole Miss offense. Senior quarterback Jordan Ta’amu has been excellent and they got playmakers at both running back and receiver. I think they can have some success against an inexperienced Alabama defense that only returned 3 starers and who will be playing their first true road game.

OVER is 11-1 in the Rebels last 12 home games and 8-2 in their last 10 against a conference opponent. OVER is also 5-0 in Alabama’s last 5 games played in the month of September. Take the OVER 70.

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 64.5) 

Syracuse likes to push the tempo (Babers calls the plays and comes from Baylor’s uptempo attack under Art Briles) and should have their best offense in quite some time. Not only do the Orange get Dungey back, but they return their top 3 rushers, and 4 of 5 starters on the offensive line.

I think Western Michigan is going to have a really tough time slowing that offense down. The Broncos lose all 3 starters at linebacker (5 of 7 overall on the front 7) and star corner Darius Phillips.

Western Michigan is going to have no choice here but to try and go score for score with Syracuse and I think they are definitely capable of doing that. The Broncos have 8 starters back with most of their key pieces back and some talented guys ready to step in for those that departed. They put up 31 last year at USC in the opener last year and I think they eclipse that mark in this one.

The key here is Syracuse also lost a lot from their defense. The Orange lost their top 4 linebackers from last year and have just one career start on the roster at the position. In total, 5 of their top 7 tacklers are gone. Keep in mind this is a team that allowed 35.6 ppg and 485 ypg on the road last year and are just 4-14 in true road openers.

OVER is 10-2 in the Broncos last 12 home games and 12-2 in their last 14 at home in the first month of the season. Give me the OVER 64.5! 

50* NCAAF SEC CONF CHAMP GAME OF THE MONTH (Under 48.5)

As dominant as Auburn was in that first meeting against Georgia, I don’t love backing teams in rematch games, especially when the first win came at home. I also feel like the Bulldogs didn’t given the Tigers their full attention, as the intensity level just wasn’t where it needed to be. I don’t see that happening this time around and could honestly see this one going either way. If I had to take a side I would lean towards Georgia getting the points, but I think the best value in this matchup is the UNDER.

For starters, I don’t see Auburn putting up 40 points on the Bulldogs in the rematch. That was one of only two games all season where Georgia allowed more than 20 points. The only other exception being the 28-points they allowed to Missouri and that was a bit of a fluke. Missouri scored their first touchdown off a turnover where they got the ball on the Georgia 5-yard line, had two 63-yard touchdown passes, scored a garbage touchdown late with the Bulldogs up 47-21. Simply put, the game against Auburn the first time around was as bad as the defense could have played and I believe a big part of that was they showed up thinking it was going to be another easy win.

You also have to factor in that Georgia’s defense will be better prepared for Auburn’s offense the second time around. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the Bulldogs hold the Tigers under 20 points.

As for the Georgia offense, I don’t know that it’s going to be a whole lot easier the second time around against this Auburn defense. The Tigers completely shutdown the Bulldogs running game, holding Georgia to just 46 yards on 32 attempts, which comes out to 1.4 yards/carry. At the same time, even if Georgia has more success running the ball, it doesn’t mean they are going to score a ton of points. Auburn just allowed 209 rushing yards to Alabama and held the Tide to just 14 points.

I just don’t see either offense being able to get going to to the point to push this over the mark. Keep in mind that we could have a 27-21 final score and that still wouldn’t be enough. Personally I think it’s going to be more like 22-17, which gives us plenty of breathing room. Give me the UNDER 48.5.!

50* STANFORD/USC VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 58)

These two teams combined for 66 points in the first meeting, easily surpassing the total of 55. Now we are getting a full 3-points more in the rematch in what's easily the biggest game of the season for both teams. I think the defenses have a huge edge when facing a team for a second time and I look for this to turn into more of a defensive battle. 

Stanford is certainly better on defense right now than they were early on in the season when these two teams played. It's also worth noting that while Stanford did get an extra week to prepare for that game, they were coming off that long trip to Australia. I'm pretty confident they aren't going to let USC run all over them like they did in the first meeting. Keep in mind in their last game they held a potent Notre Dame rushing attack to just 154 yards on 44 attempts, which comes out to a 3.5 yards/carry. 

On the flip side of this, I also think USC's defense is going to play extremely well here. While K.J. Costello has improved the Cardinal's passing attack, it's still not very good. Stanford finished the year 97th against the pass, averaging just 183.7 ypg. Most of their offense in the first meeting came from running back Bryce Love, who had 160 yards on 17 attempts. While Love can still be electric at times, he hasn't been the same guy since hurting his ankle a few weeks back. Not to mention, the Trojans have had two weeks to put together a game plan to make sure he's accounted for at all time. 

I don't see either team getting to 30 points in this game, as I think we see a final score here around 27-23, giving us plenty of breathing room. Give me the UNDER 58! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 48) 

I tend to lean towards lower-scoring games in a rivalry matchup like this and that's just the tip of the iceberg to why I like this one staying under 48 points. Western Michigan is down their starting quarterback and will be sending out a true freshmen for his first collegiate start. The Broncos were already a run first team and will be even more so here. I also think that allows the Chippewas defense to load the box early and force the freshman to beat him with his arm. On the flip side of this, Central Michigan has struggled to run the ball and don't figure to get it going here. They aren't anywhere close to as good offensively as they looked in their last game against Ball State and will struggle here just to get first downs. Give me the UNDER 48! 

50* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (UNDER 48.5) 

BYU's offense is dreadful. They haven’t scored more than 24 points in a game and have been held to 7 or fewer three times. They are 128th out of 130 FBS teams at just 14.0 ppg.

They aren’t catching a break here against a pissed off Bulldogs defense that had been playing extremely well before a couple of poor showings against Georgia and Auburn. Not to mention the fact that Dan Mullen and his staff have had two weeks to get their guys ready for this game. Mullen’s teams rarely come out flat in this spot.

I wouldn’t be shocked if they held BYU to under 10 points. In fact, I would be more surprised if the Cougars eclipsed that mark. That means Mississippi State can score 35 (7 touchdowns) and there’s a good chance the game stays under the mark.

The key here is that BYU actually has a decent defense. Most importantly, they matchup well with the Bulldogs. Mississippi State’s offense is built around their running game. They rank 17th in rushing (252.8 ypg) compared to 110th in passing (169.2 ypg). While the Cougars are just 78th against the run, giving up 167.2 ypg, they are only giving up 3.7 yards/carry against teams that average 4.3 yards/carry. They have simply played a lot of run-first teams, which has that run defense looking worse than it is.

The fact that BYU should be able to slow down the Bulldogs ground game should eliminate the big plays and force Mississippi State to eat up some clock when they do put together a scoring drive. As long as we don’t get a bunch of non-offensive touchdowns, this one should stay well under the mark set by the books. Give me the UNDER 48.5!

50* CLEMSON/SYRACUSE ACC GAME OF THE MONTH (UNDER 57.5) 

I'm taking the Tigers and Orange to go UNDER the mark set by the books. Clemson’s defense is special and it seems like the bigger the stage the better they play. The fact that Syracuse has recently played well on the road against the likes of LSU and NC State and this is a prime time game, I expect a big effort here from the Tigers stop unit. 

Syracuse has a couple of big time weapons at receiver, but I don't see them having enough time to throw. The Orange don’t have much of a running game, at least not one Clemson will have to respect. The Tigers and that dominant defensive line will be able to pin their ears back and get after the quarterback.

The big key here is Clemson’s starting quarterback Kelly Bryant hurt his ankle and left last week’s game against Wake Forest. He’s listed as probably and expected to play, but I expect Clemson to be very cautious with letting him run the ball, which is arguably his biggest strength. Instead they will likely just lean on their two talented backs and grind out a win here.

Syracuse has also been playing better on the defensive side of the ball this season. The Orange are holding opponents to just 357.7 ypg, which ranks 46th in the country. That’s a massive improvement over last year, when they allowed 501 ypg. The biggest improvement is their run defense. In 2016 they allowed 225 ypg and 5.4 yards/carry. This year they are allowing just 131.5 ypg and 3.8 yards/carry.

The UNDER is an impressive 14-4 in Syracuse’s last 18 games and 9-1 in their last 10 at home. UNDER is also 10-1 in the Tigers last 11 games played in a Dome. Give me the UNDER 57.5

50* TEXAS/ISU BIG 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH (OVER 63.5)

I know these two have struggled to put up points in the last two meetings, but I think we in store for a shootout tonight in Ames. Matt Campbell is in year two with ISU and has the offense ranked 42nd in the country, which is no surprise given what he was able to do at Toledo, which averaged 35 ppg and 461 ypg in his final year. He's got the passing attack working for the Cyclones, as they come in ranked 18th in the country. 

The game that really stands out to me as a sign that this one will see a lot of scoring is Iowa State's game against in-state rival Iowa. The two combined for 85 points with each scoring in the 40s. That's a very limited Iowa offense who could struggled to get first downs last week against Penn State. Texas has some playmakers on offense and are only going to keep getting better offensively under first year head coach Tom Herman. I'm willing to bet they come out sharp here off a bye. 

The key here is that I trust this Cyclones offense to do their part and push this one over the mark. Especially with this game being at home. Texas' defense is still a work in progress and we saw them give up 50 in their opener at home to Maryland. The defense was better against USC, but some of that was the Trojans not coming out sharp off a big road game against Stanford. I look for a lot of big plays and quick scores by both sides. Give me the OVER 63.5! 

100* SEC FOOTBALL TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 55.5)

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 56.5) 

*Analysis Coming* 

50* POWER 5 NON CONF TOTAL OF THE YEAR (OVER 67.5)

For whatever reason the entire country is sleeping on Louisville and returning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson this season. I know the Cardinals struggled down the stretch, but I believe it was more of the team not being as focused after losing out on their playoff hopes than opposing defenses figuring them out. Petrino has won everywhere he's went and Jackson is only going to be better this year. I love the hire by Purdue with Jeff Brohm, which should pay off on the offensive side of the ball. However, the defense will remain a work in progress. Keep in mind were talking about a Boilermakers defense that allowed 40+ points in 6 games, that includes 50 to Maryland, 44 to Minnesota, 45 to Northwestern and 49 to Iowa. Louisville is on a whole different planet in terms of offensive explosiveness than those teams. I think they score at least 40 and potentially a lot more here, while Purdue adds more than enough to push us over the mark. Give me the OVER 67.5! 

50* CFB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOTAL OF THE WEEK (Over 56.5)

I think the books have completely missed the mark here with this total. These two teams played last year and combined for 67 points in a 53-14 win by UCF. I think we see a similar scoring output here, giving us all kinds of breathing room. Scott Frost brought Oregon's uptempo attack with him to Orlando and if you recall the Ducks loved to poor it on teams. FIU should be improved under head coach Butch Davis, but will struggle to slow down UCF's offense which has 9 starters back and should get even better play out of sophomore QB McKenzie Milton, who flashed as a true freshman. FIU only averaged 24 ppg last year, but should see a huge uptick in their production under new OC Rich Skrosky. Give me the OVER 56.5! 

50* Clemson/Alabama Vegas Sharp Money Total Top Play (OVER 50.5)

I think everyone is falling into a similar trap to last year's title game, where there's so much talk about how dominant Alabama's defense is and Clemson coming off a dominant performance in their Semifinals matchup. Last year they beat Oklahoma 37-17, keeping an explosive Sooners offense in check. I just don't see this being a defensive battle. Clemson's defense has had their fair share of games where the defense struggled, giving up 36 to Louisville, 34 to Florida State and 42 to Pitt. Let's also not forget that Alabama has scored 30+ in 12 of their 14 games. The offense didn't look good against Washington, but Kiffin wasn't on his game. I just think there's too much talent on offense on both sides for this to stay under the total here. Give me the OVER 50.5!

50* NCAAF Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (OVER 76)

Anytime Cal is involved in a game, you have to be thinking OVER. They are 8th in the country in total offense, with the 4th ranked passing attack at (365.6 ypg). They are also 124th in total defense. They are averaging 41.2 ppg and giving up 41.7 ppg. They also play at a fast tempo, so there's a lot of possessions for both sides. Washington has a good defense, which I think is keeping this total lower than it should be. The way Cal plays, it can go one of two ways here in my opinion. We know Washington is going to score against this Cal defense, they are even better offensively than Cal at 46.1 ppg and put up 70 on a similarly bad Oregon defense earlier this year. Cal's offense has success and scores with them or they struggle, get down big, and put up garbage points late. I think it's the former. This is the best offense Washington has seen all season, by far the best quarterback they have faced and the defense could be a step slow here after a very physical game last week at Utah. Give me the OVER 76! 

50* NCAAF AAC Total of the Month (Over 73) 

I'm expecting a shootout in Memphis this Saturday, as the Tigers take on the Golden Hurricane. The only team that's been able to contain Tulsa's offense this season is Ohio State, where they managed just 3-points and 189 yards of total offense. The Hurricane have scored at least 31 in every other game and 40+ in 5 of the 6 not against Ohio State. If you take out the game against the Buckeyes, Tulsa is averaging 45.8 ppg and 534.3 ypg. Memphis' defense isn't as good as the 22.6 ppg average they have. They are allowing 39.0 ppg to teams not named SE Missouri St, Kansas, Bowling Green and Tulane. Not only should Tulsa put up a big number, but the Tigers figure to do their fair share of scoring as well. The Golden Hurricane have allowed 38+ points in 4 games and the only teams they have held in check are San Jose St, North Carolina A&T and Tulane. Memphis has scored at least 24 in every game and are averaging 38.4 ppg. Give me the OVER 73! 

50* NCAAF PAC-12 Total of the Month (OVER 63.5)

I'm expecting a shootout in Tempe Saturday night. I believe we are seeing a much lower total than we should be, due to Washington State's defense holding Stanford to just 16 points and UCLA to only 21 in their last 2 games. The Cardinal offense is limited and are more of a run-first team, while the Bruins were minus their star quarterback Josh Rosen. Arizona State was just held to 16 points at Colorado, but they clearly didn't show up for that game and the Buffaloes have a better defense than people realize. With this game being played at Arizona State, I look for the Sun Devils offense to put up a big number. At the same time, I think Arizona State's defense will be exposed by the Cougars. Both these teams like to play at a fast pace and would much rather attack defenses through the air than on the ground. That's going to lead to some extra possessions for both sides and should have this one finishing closer to 75 than 65. Give me the OVER 63! 

50* NCAAF Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 53) 

This is basically an elimination game in the Coastal, plus both are coming off a bad loss in their last game. I don't think there's any doubt that we are going to get the very best both teams have to offer. I believe that it's going to result in a low-scoring defensive battle. Both of these teams are legit on the defensive side of the ball. Miami hasn't allowed more than 21 points all season and have played FSU and UNC. I know the Hokies just allowed 31 last week at Syracuse, but prior to that they had allowed 20 points in their previous 3 games combined. It's also worth pointing out that Miami's offense isn't great and has struggled against some pretty average defenses in their last two games in the Seminoles and Tar Heels. Hokies should also get a boost defensively playing at home in a nationally televised weekday game. UNDER is 9-2 in Hokies last 11 conference games and 16-5 in Miami's last 21 when playing on Thursday. Give me the UNDER 53! 

50* NCAAF Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (OVER 54) 

I think the books have completely missed the mark here on the total in tonight's Sun Belt game between Georgia Southern and Arkansas State. The Eagles come in allowing just 19.7 ppg and the Red Wolves are averaging just 16.7 ppg, which is a big part of why we are seeing such a low total. However, Georgia Southern's defensive numbers are greatly aided by a soft schedule. The 4 teams they are playing are only averaging 23.2 ppg. Arkansas State on the other hand has played some pretty good defenses, as their opponents are only giving up 21.1 ppg. I think both offenses are going to thrive in this game. The Red Wolves do have some serious problems on defense and are going to struggle against a talented Eagles offense. As for the Arkansas State offense, they recently switched to Justice Hansen at quarterback, who has shown the ability to throw the ball deep. That's how you attack this Georgia Southern defense and it should lead to some big plays and more importantly quick scores. Give me the OVER 54! 

50* NCAAF Vegas Insider Top Play (Louisville/Syracuse OVER 68)

I don't hate Syracuse and the points, but I feel the real value here is on the total and it going over the mark of 68. Both of these teams have strong quarterbacks, playmakers at the skill positions and like to play at a fast pace. I know the opener was against Charlotte, but not many teams could hang 56 points in the 1st half against, let alone score that many in an entire game. Keep in mind that was a Charlotte team that had 16 returning starters and in the 4th year under head coach Brad Lambert. I believe Louisville is one of the best offensive teams in the country and are going to have no problem moving the ball against the Orange. Let's not forget they played late last season and the Cardinals scored 41 points on 579 yards of offense. That was with Syracuse playing a grind it out style offensively. That's no longer the case under new head coach Dino Babers, who is bringing his uptempo offense that he learned at Baylor to the Orange. Syracuse's new style offensively is going to give Louisville some problems, especially with this being played at the Carrier Dome, plus it's going to create more possessions for the Cardinals offense. I think these two eclipse 70 without much problem. Give me the OVER 68! 

50* NCAAF --Guaranteed Gridiron Top Play-- (Under 50.5)

I don't see a ton of value with the spread, but I do think we are seeing an inflated total that presents some great value on the UNDER. Both of these teams took advantage of great matchups in the semifinals. Oklahoma couldn't stop Clemson's ground attack and Alabama took advantage of a weak Michigan State secondary. That clearly won't be the case in this matchup and I look for both offenses to struggle to sustain drives and finish off the ones they do put together with touchdowns. UNDER is 33-14 in Crimson Tide's last 57 against strong rushing teams that average 200+ yards/game on the ground and 16-6 in Clemson's last 22 against strong run defenses that allow 2.75 or less yards/carry. Give me the UNDER 50.5! 

50* NCAAF --PAC-12 Total of the Year-- (Over 69.5)

Oregon won't be playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game and aren't a factor for the college football playoff, but I strongly believe that this is one of the best teams in the country right now. Since Adams has returned to the lineup at full strength, Oregon's offense has looked like the offense we have grown so accustomed to seeing the previous years. They put up 65 on Arizona State, 44 on Cal, 38 on Stanford and 48 last week against USC. All 4 of those games finished with a combined score of at least 72 points. Last week Oregon State gave up 52 points at home to Washington, who is one of the more limited offensive teams in the Pac-12 the previous week they gave up 54 to Cal and the week prior 41 at home to UCLA. I'm confident the Ducks will eclipse 50 points in this game and wouldn't be shocked if they scored well into the 60's. The key here is that while Oregon's offense is dynamic and poised for a huge game, the Ducks defense is average at best. Given this being a rivalry game and Oregon State having nothing to lose at 2-9, I look for the Beavers to pull out all the tricks they can think of to try and put points on the scoreboard. This one should fly over the total. Give me the OVER 69.5! 

50* NCAAF --Gridiron Total Top Play-- (Under 52.5)

I think we are going to see a low scoring game here between the Hokies and Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech is fighting for their season, as they have to win out make a bowl, while Virginia Tech also comes in highly motivated knowing that this is Beamer's last run. While the Hokies are familiar with the Yellow Jackets and their triple-option attack, they get the added bonus here of coming off their bye. UNDER is 21-8 in Georgia Tech's last 29 games played on Thursday and 13-4 in their last 17 home games with a total of 52.5 to 56 points. UNDER is also 26-13 in Virginia Tech's last 39 with a line of +3 to -3 and 6-0 in their last 6 conference road games. Give me the UNDER 52.5! 

50* NCAAF --Guaranteed Gridiron Total Top Play-- (Over 51)

This all comes down to the situation. Temple is well known for their defense, but we aren't going to see their best effort on that side of the ball in this spot. The Owls put everything they had into last week's game against Notre Dame and simply aren't going to be able to bounce back with that same kind of effort on the road against a SMU team that likes to play fast. If we simply get 20 points here from the Mustangs at home, we would need just 32 from Temple to cash the over. Considering SMU has allowed at least 38 in 6 straight, that should be a problem. Give me the OVER 51! 

50* NCAAF --Gridiron Total of the Month-- (UNDER 51)

This may seem like a low total given Clemson just hung 58 on the road last week at Miami, but I think this game has a defensive battle written all over it. Clemson is 4th in the country in total defense and NC State is 3rd. Wolfpack offensively were held to 13 points in their only two games against a legit opponent in Louisville and Virginia Tech, so don't expect much from them. The key is I think their defense will keep Watson and the Tigers in check. We saw Clemson only score 20 on the road against a good Louisville defense and NC State seems to play above their potential on this side of the ball when hosting a ranked opponent. Give me the UNDER 51! 

50* NCAAF --Guaranteed Gridiron Total Top Play-- (Under 55)

First place in the ACC Coastal division will be up for grabs (Pitt currently sits at 4-0 in ACC with Duke and UNC both at 3-0) tonight when the Tar Heels visit the No. 23 ranked Panthers. I don't see much value in the line at basically a pick'em, but I do think we are seeing an inflated total based on previous matchups. No surprise that these two teams have been great defensively in 2015. Pitt brought in former Michigan State defensive coordinator Pat Nartduzzi as their new head coach, while the Tar Heels landed Gene Chizek as their new defensive coordinator. The Panthers come in ranked 16th in total defense (308.3 ypg) and North Carolina is 36th (349.9 ypg). The impressive thing with Pitt's defensive numbers is they have played 5 of their first 7 on the road. Their defense should be even better at home, especially in this big time environment of a nationally televised game. The Tar Heels on the other hand have allowed 17 or less points in all but one game, the exception being against Georgia Tech and their triple-option attack. Both offenses like to run the football and I see this one being a defensive battle all the way. Give me the UNDER 55! 

50* NCAAF --ACC Total of the Month-- (Over 55)

The books have set a low total here due to the perception that Clemson has a dominant defense. While I'm not saying the Tigers aren't a good defensive team, they have benefited from a soft schedule in terms of teams they have had to face who can spread you out and beat you with both the run and the pass. The only legit offense they have faced is Notre Dame and they gave up 437 yards, including 321 through the air. Miami has a ton of speed and one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country in Kaaya. At the same time, the Hurricanes aren't going to offer up much resistance defensively. I think both teams score into the 30's here. Give me the OVER 55!

50* NCAAF --Over/Under Total of the Month-- (Navy/ND Over 56)

Notre Dame laid it all on the line last week against Clemson and simply won't have the same energy when they take the field against Navy. Similar to what we saw with them allowing 27 points to UMass after that big game against Georgia Tech. Navy has proven they can move the ball against the Irish, scoring at least 34 points each of the last 2 years. Midshipmen look to be even strong offensively in 2015, which isn't a big surprise with senior quarterback Keenan Reynolds calling the shots. While I don't expect a great showing from the defense, the offense will be highly motivated to put up points after scoring only 22 last week against Clemson when they should have had a lot more. Notre Dame had 437 yards of total offense, but turned it over 4 times (only had 3 turnovers first 4 games combined). Like each of the last two years, I expect both offenses to score into the 30's, making this an easy play for me. Give me the OVER 56!

50* NCAAF --Sharp Money Total Dominator-- (Under 47.5)

This total has been set too high for this matchup. Boston College features about as run heavy of an offense you will find that's not based strictly off the triple-option. The Eagles have attempted 49, 40 and 43 rush attempts in their first 3 games and totaled just 347 passing yards in their first 3 games combined. N. Illinois is only giving up 3.5 yards/carry against teams averaging 4.1, so I expect them to at worst make BC use a lot of plays to sustain a drive and put points on the scoreboard. Northern Illinois' offense is pretty average and will struggle to get much going on the road against a BC defense that is allowing 1.4 yards/carry and only allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 44.6% of their attempts. I see a lot of empty drives and field goals when they get in opposing territory. Give me the UNDER 47.5!

50* NCAAF --Sharp Money Total Crusher-- (Under 49)

I think the books have set too high of a total here for tonight's prime time matchup between Boise State and Virginia. Both of these teams are strong defensively and that should have these two average offenses struggling to sustain drives and finish them off with touchdowns. Boise State will be without starting quarterback Ryan Finley, which means they are going to have an inexperienced signal caller making his first start on the road, a situation that doesn't figure to end well. Virginia's offense is limited and the Broncos are more than capable of keeping them in check. The energy and intensity that comes with playing in front of a national audience only adds to the value here with this total. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to reach 20 points. Give me the UNDER 49!

50* NCAAF *SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH* (Under 53)

I don't see any value on the spread in this one, but I absolutely love the UNDER. Alabama does not have the same offensive explosion as last year, but are improved defensively. For Ole Miss, all the talk has been about the offense, but I've been more impressed with the defense. I think we are going to see two of the best defenses in the country, potentially the best two, go to battle. I think we could see a similar type battle to Alabama's 2011 home game against LSU, where the game ended with a final of 6-9. Even if there's a little more offense than that, I don't see it getting into the 50's. Give me the UNDER 53!

50* NCAAF *FRIDAY NIGHT TOTAL CRUSHER* (Under 65)

This may seem like a low total given these two teams combined for 81 points in Arizona State's 58-23 blowout win at New Mexico last year, but I actually think the value is on the UNDER. Both teams bring a lot back defensively. Sun Devils returned 9 defensive starters and the Lobos brought back 7. Both will have a much better understanding of what the other team is looking to do offensively. New Mexico likes to run the football and that's going to eat up some clock and I don't see the Sun Devils trying to run up the score late with two huge games on deck against USC at home and UCLA on the road. These prime time games also tend to bring out the best defensively and I think ASU could make life extremely difficult on New Mexico, who scored just 21 points last week against Tulsa at home. Under is 13-4 in Arizona State's last 17 home games with a total set at 63 or more points. ROLL THE UNDER 65!