Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-02-22 | Heat +8.5 v. Celtics | 120-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
9* NBA - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Miami Heat +8.5 I'll take my chances with the Heat as a 8.5-point road dog against the Celtics. This will be a rematch from Wednesday. Boston won and covered as a 10-point favorite in a 134-121 win. It's been quite a run for the Celtics, who are now 14-1 over their last 15 with a 10-2 ATS record in their last 12. Not saying they will lose the rematch, but I do like Miami to put up more of a fight. Not as easy for Boston getting motivated to play the same team, especially after beating them the previous time out. Celtics could also be looking ahead to a 6-game road trip against the likes of the Nets, Raptors, Suns, Warriors, Clippers and Lakers. Give me the Heat +8.5! |
|||||||
11-30-22 | North Carolina +5.5 v. Indiana | Top | 65-77 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: North Carolina Tar Heels +5.5 I'll take my chances with North Carolina catching 5.5-points on the road against the Hoosiers. I think we are getting a great price on the Tar Heels in this one. UNC had opened the season 5-0 before blowing a 58-51 lead with under 5 minutes to play in a 65-70 loss to ISU. They then lost 101-103 to Arkansas in a thrilling 4OT game on Sunday. I just think it has them getting a few too many points here against what I think is an overrated Indiana team. The Hoosiers are 6-0, but 5 of those 6 wins have come against teams ranked outside the Top 250. The one good win they have is over No. 32 Xavier and they barely snuck that one out in a 81-79 win. You also got to look at how well the ACC has been playing in this ACC/Big Ten challenge. Give me the Tar Heels +5.5! |
|||||||
11-30-22 | Ohio State v. Duke -5 | 72-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Duke Blue Devils -5 I'll take my chances with Duke as a 5-point home favorite against Ohio State. I like the Blue Devils quite a bit in this spot. Duke should be highly motivated coming off an embarrassing 56-75 loss to Purdue. It was just one of those nights for the Blue Devil from outside, as they were just 2-19 (10.5%) from behind the 3-point line. I look for Duke to respond in a big way on their home floor, while I think this could be a tricky spot for the Buckeyes, who will be playing their first true road game of the season. Ohio State could also be a bit rusty, as they haven't played in a week. Give me Duke -5! |
|||||||
11-29-22 | Virginia -4.5 v. Michigan | Top | 70-68 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Virginia Cavaliers -4.5 I'll take my chance with Virginia laying 4.5 on the road against Michigan. I just have not been impressed with what I've seen out of this Michigan team early on. The Wolverines are 5-1, but the only Top 75 team they have played is Arizona State and they lost that game 62-87. Michigan has also struggled to put bad teams away. They got a 5-point win over Eastern Michigan, a 70-66 OT win at home against Ohio and last time out they beat Jackson State 78-68. The same Jackson State team that lost 51-90 to Indiana a few days later. As for Virginia, they are 5-0 with two Top 25 wins away from home. They knocked off Baylor 86-79 on a neutral floor and Illinois 70-61 at a neutral site. The Cavs aren't just winning with their defense this year. Virginia is No. 5 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 14 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are No. 4 in the country in 3P% and No. 2 in FTA/FGA. The one weakness Virginia's defense has had is defending the 3-pointer, as they are No. 202 in opponent 3P%. Michigan's not a great 3-point shooting team, ranking just 229th in 3P%. Really the only thing the Wolverines have done well is not turn the ball over, but that's negated by the fact that their defense ranks No. 306 in opponent TO%. I just don't think playing at home will be enough for them to make a game of it. Give me Virginia -4.5! |
|||||||
11-29-22 | Penn State +1.5 v. Clemson | 94-101 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER: Penn State Nittany Lions +1.5 I'll take my chances here with Penn State as a 1.5-point road dog against Clemson. I really like this matchup for the Nittany Lions, who I think are flying a bit under the radar right now. Penn State's only loss this season is a 59-61 setback against a good Virginia Tech team on a neutral floor. A game they nearly one, despite them trailing 9-25 with 8 minutes to play in the 1st half. Penn State does have 3 top 100 wins beating Butler, Furman and Colorado State. As for Clemson, the Tigers are 5-2 and just haven't impressed me. Their best win on the season in terms of where their opponents rank is a 67-59 win against No. 213 Cal and that's a Golden Bears team that is currently sitting 0-7 to start the season. Clemson did lose by just 3 to Iowa on a neutral floor, but the Hawkeyes were in control of that game for all but the last 5 minutes. Penn State will also have the best player on the floor in this game in Jalen Pickett. I just don't think the Nittany Lions should be a dog in this fight. Give me Penn State +1.5! |
|||||||
11-28-22 | Hawks -1 v. 76ers | 101-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
8* NBA - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Atlanta Hawks -1 I'll take my chances with the Hawks as a slim 1-point road favorite against the 76ers on Monday. This line doesn't exactly make a lot of sense. The 76ers come into this game having gone 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS over their last 8 games. They just won last night by 30 on the road against the Magic as a mere 1-point favorite. Atlanta on the other hand has lost their last two games as a favorite and are just 1-5 ATS over their last 6. Even with Embiid, Maxey and Harden all out for the 76ers, the public is all over Philly here as a home dog. I just think it's a bit of an overreaction with the 76ers recent success without their Big 3. Yes they had that big win at home over the Nets, but the other 3 games without their big 3 came against the Hornets and the Magic (Twice). I just think Atlanta should be favored by more in this spot. Hawks are going to be extremely motivated to get back in the win column, while Philly could be a little over confident here after that 30-point blowout win. Hawks are the more talented team in this fight. Give me Atlanta -1! |
|||||||
11-25-22 | Kings +8 v. Celtics | 104-122 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
9* NBA - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Sacramento Kings +8 I'll take my chances with the Kings as a 8-point dog against the Celtics. This is just too many points to pass up with Sacramento. Boston is being way overpriced right now due to the fact that they come in having won 10 of their last 11. Also a good buy low spot on the Kings after an ugly 106-115 loss at Atlanta last time out. Sacramento has been playing extremely well since late October. The Kings are 10-3 SU and 10-3 ATS over their last 13 games. Sacramento has really come out looking to prove to everyone how good they are against the top teams and I expect them to give Boston all they can handle in this one. Give me the Kings +8! |
|||||||
11-25-22 | Coppin State v. Maryland -23.5 | 79-95 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
8* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Maryland Terrapins -23.5 I'll take my chances laying the 23.5 at home with Maryland against a bad Coppin State team. The Terps have been one of the big surprise teams early on this season, as they are way better than most anticipated. Maryland came into this season ranked just 56th at KenPom. They now sit at No. 24. In their last two games they have beat No. 45 St Louis 95-67 and No. 48 Miami 88-70. Now they face a Coppin State team that has already lost 3 times by a wide margin. They lost by 23 at No. 159 Charlotte, by 19 at No. 121 Marshall and by 16 at No. 81 Towson. The Eagles are awful on both sides of the ball, ranking 296th in adjusted off. eff. and 289 in adjusted def. eff. Maryland is 23rd in adjusted off. eff. and 34th in adj. def. efficiency. Give me the Terps -23.5! |
|||||||
11-24-22 | Memphis -1.5 v. Seton Hall | 69-70 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Memphis Tigers -1.5 I'll take my chances with Memphis as a 1.5-point favorite against Seton Hall. The betting public is all over the Pirates in this game and I'm not sure why. Seton Hall is 3-1, but all 3 wins have come against teams ranked outside the Top 250. The only real legit team they have played is Iowa and they lost at home to the Hawkeyes by a score of 67-83. As for Memphis, they are off to a 2-1 start and have played a pretty tough schedule to this point. All 3 of the Tigers' opponents have ranked inside the Top 100 at KenPom. They have a 76-67 win at Vandy and a 62-47 win at home against VCU. The only loss coming by 6 points to a St Louis team that comes in 5-1. Give me Memphis -1.5! |
|||||||
11-23-22 | Jackson State v. Michigan -22 | 68-78 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
8* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Michigan Wolverines -22 I'll take my chances with Michigan as a big 22-point home favorite against Jackson State tonight. I just don't see the Tigers being able to keep this one close against what should be a hungry Wolverines team that hasn't exactly played great basketball in their last two games. Michigan was upset last Thursday in an ugly 62-87 loss on a neutral floor to Arizona State and then needed OT to escape with a 70-66 win over a subpar Ohio team on Sunday. With this being their last game before a 6-day break, I got to think the Wolverines will be out to make a statement here. They should be able to do just that. Jackson State is ranked 309th in the country at KenPom. The Tigers are No. 332 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 272 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Jackson State also likes to play fast, ranking 49th in the country in tempo. I just think it's a recipe for disaster wanting to turn this into a transition game against this more athletic Michigan team, who ranks 29th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. Give me Michigan -22! |
|||||||
11-23-22 | 76ers v. Hornets -3.5 | Top | 101-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
10* NBA Sharp Money PLAY OF THE WEEK: Charlotte Hornets -3.5 I will gladly take my chances with the Hornets as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against the 76ers on Wednesday. Charlotte is just 1-11 over their last 12 games, but that's playing into the favorable number here. Even with Ball still sidelined, the Hornets are as healthy as they have been since the start of the season, as they just recently got back several key players including Hayward and Smith Jr. We should also get a big effort here from the Hornets given how fresh they will be for this game. Charlotte hasn't played since Sunday and this will be just their third game in the last 6 days. With all that said, this is even more a play against the 76ers in this spot. Philadelphia just played their hearts out last night against Brooklyn, despite missing all three of their Big 3 in Embiid, Harden and Maxey. They put everything they had into beating the Nets, as it was Ben Simmons' first game back in Philly. With the Big 3 all expected to be sidelined again tonight, it sets the 76ers up for a massive letdown on the road against a struggling Hornets team. Give me Charlotte -3.5! |
|||||||
11-23-22 | USC v. BYU -1.5 | 82-76 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: BYU Cougars -1.5 I'll take my chances with BYU as a slim 1.5-point favorite against USC on a neutral floor. The Trojans started out their season with an ugly 61-74 loss at home to Florida Gulf Coast, who we have seen go on to lose by the likes of 31 to Tennessee. USC has responded with 3 straight wins, but two of those were cupcakes against Alabama St and Mount St. Mary's. The other was a 2-point win against a free-falling Vermont team that is just 1-5 to start the year and has gone from being ranked No. 100 at KenPom to No. 160. One of the big problems for USC is they are having to go at it without 5-star big man Vincent Iwuchukwu, who they desperately needed to step in and play a big role to fill the void left by Isaiah Mobley. BYU's only loss on the season is a 75-82 setback on the road against a very good San Diego State team and they had a lead late (led 67-61 with 6:50 to play) in that game before the Aztecs pulled away down the stretch. Give me the Cougars -1.5! |
|||||||
11-22-22 | Liberty v. Northwestern -2 | 52-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
8* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Northwestern Wildcats -2 I'll take my chances with Northwestern as a slim 2-point favorite against Liberty in Tuesday's matchup in the Cancun Challenge. The Wildcats have gotten off to an impressive and surprising 4-0 start, as a lot of people threw this team under the bus when guys like Pete Nance (UNC) and Ryan Young (Duke) transferred after last season. Wildcats are getting enough offense, led by one of the Big Ten's better players in Boo Buie. They are also locking teams down defensively. Northwestern ranks 21st in adjusted efficiency on defense and No. 11 in effective FG% defense. Liberty is 2-2 and have been a bit of a disappointment. Losing to Alabama was to be expected, but it was the way in which they lost by 36 points (59-95). They also lost 72-76 at home to Southern Miss last time out. Defense has not been a strength for them, as they are 311th in the country in effective FG% defense. Give me Northwestern -2! |
|||||||
11-22-22 | Kings -2 v. Grizzlies | Top | 113-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Sacramento Kings -2 I'll take my chances with the Kings as a slim 2-point road favorite against the Grizzlies on Tuesday. Easy play here for me on Sacramento. The Kings have been playing as well as any team in the league over the last month. Sacramento comes in having won 6 straight. They are 9-2 SU and 9-2 ATS over their last 11 games. Kings will be facing a Memphis team that will likely be without two of their best players, as star point guard Ja Morant is listed as doubtful and Desmond Bane remains out with a toe injury. Bane has easily been the Grizzlies second best player this season, as he's averaging 24.7 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 4.8 apg and is shooting 45% from deep (averaging 3.8 made 3's a game). I just don't see the Grizzlies being able to keep pace offensively without Morant and Bane. Kings have scored 120 or more points in all 6 wins during the win streak. Give me Sacramento -2! |
|||||||
11-22-22 | Nevada +6 v. Kansas State | 87-96 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Nevada Wolf Pack +6 I'll take my chances with Nevada as a 6-point dog against K-State in Tuesday's action out of the Cayman Islands Classic. The Wolf Pack have really looked strong to start out the 2022 season, as it seems as though Steve Alford has got this team playing up to their potential after failing to do so a year ago. Nevada is 5-0 with a 13-point win over Grand Canyon who is ranked No. 103 and a 9-point win over Tulane who is No. 74. They are really locked in defensively, as they are sitting No. 3 in the country in effective FG% defense. They are No. 14 in 3P% defense, No. 3 in 2P% defense and No. 7 in Block%. K-State is 4-0 and certainly headed in the right direction under head coach Jerome Tang, but the strong start has come against an easy schedule. Three of their wins have come against teams ranked outside the Top 210 in UT Rio Grande Valley, Cal and UMKC. The other win is against No. 184 Rhode Island, who I'm not sure deserves to be ranked that high. Rhode Island is 1-3 with losses to No. 202 Quinnipiac and No. 190 Texas State. Give me the Wolf Pack +6! |
|||||||
11-21-22 | Mississippi State -2.5 v. Marquette | 58-55 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
8* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Mississippi State Bulldogs -2.5 I'll take my chances with Mississippi State as a slim 2.5-point favorite against Marquette on a neutral floor. The Bulldogs have shot up the rankings early on this season. KenPom had this team ranked 53rd going into their season opener against Texas A&M CC and they now sit 27th. They are 4-0 with their only win decided by fewer than 20 points being a 19-point win over Akron. This team has clearly taken to new head coach Chris Jans and the emphasis that he puts on the defensive side of the ball. The Bulldogs rank 15th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and 6th in effective FG% defense. They are also 1st in the country in Steal% and 21st in Block%. Marquette is off to a 3-1 start with their only loss coming by 5 on the road against Purdue, but this is a team that lost a lot from last year's squad and were a bit lucky to keep that game against the Boilermakers as close as they did. Purdue shot 62% on 2-pt attempts. The only thing that saved Marquette in that game was they piled on 15 offensive rebounds. I just don't see that being the case in this one. I also think Mississippi State's grind it out style could really take the Golden Eagles out of their game as they want to play fast. Give me the Bulldogs -2.5! |
|||||||
11-21-22 | Magic +7 v. Pacers | 102-123 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Orlando Magic +7 I'll take my chances with the Magic as a 7-point road dog against the Pacers on Monday. I really like the revenge angle for Orlando in this one. These two teams just played each other in Indiana on Saturday, which saw the Pacers squeak out a 114-113 win as a 6.5-point favorite. That game snapped a streak of 9 straight covers by Indiana. Key here is I still think the Pacers are being overvalued by the books due to their recent success against the number. It's just not easy beating a team twice in a row and even with some key guys out like rookie Pablo Banchero, this Magic team has shown a lot of fight of late. Orlando is 6-3 ATS over their last 9 games. I not only like them to cover, but I give them a legit shot here to win this game outright. Give me the Magic +7! |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Heat v. Cavs -9.5 | 87-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
9* NBA - Situational ATS MASSACRE: Cleveland Cavaliers -9.5 I'll take my chances with the Cavs as a 9.5-point home favorite against the Heat on Sunday. Miami has been decimated by injuries. We know for sure that the Heat will be without Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Victor Oladipo and Udonis Haslem. Duncan Robinson is doubtful. Gabe Vincent, Bam Adebayo and Dewayne Deadmon are all questionable. It's basically going to be a g-league team out for the Heat against one of the better teams in the league in Cleveland. Cavs had lost 5 straight before bouncing back with a 10-point win over Charlotte last time out. I just think there's plenty of motivation for Cleveland to take care of business given how things have gone of late. This is also a Cavs team that has played well at home. Cleveland is 5-1 on their home floor, where they are scoring 118.5 ppg. This has blowout written all over it. Give me the Cavs -9.5! |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Oklahoma State v. DePaul +7.5 | 82-78 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
8* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: DePaul Blue Demons +7.5 I'll take my chances with DePaul catching 7.5-points on a neutral floor against Oklahoma State. I think we are getting some value here with the Blue Demons at this price. This to me just feels like a bit of an overreaction with DePaul after Friday's 61-69 loss to Santa Clara as a 2.5-point favorite. The fact that the Blue Demons only lost by 8 points, despite them shooting just 34.4% from the field and finishing -16 in the rebound department says a lot about the potential of this team and let's not forget this team started out 3-0 with a road win over Minnesota before that loss. As for the Cowboys, they haven't exactly looked great to start the year. They only beat UT Arlington by 11 as a 20.5-point favorite. They lost outright as a 8.5-point favorite to Southern Illinois and last time out lost outright to UCF as a 6-point favorite. Give me DePaul +7.5! |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Wagner v. Seton Hall -18.5 | 44-82 | Win | 100 | 2 h 19 m | Show | |
8* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Seton Hall Pirates -18.5 I'll take my chances with Seton Hall as a 18.5-point home favorite against Wagner. I don't see the Pirates having any problem winning here by 20+ points. Big bounce back spot for Seton Hall after Wednesday's 16-point loss at home to Iowa. That loss looks worse than it is, as the Hawkeyes aren't getting a ton of love from the media. At least not yet. KenPom has that Iowa team ranked No. 15 in the country. Prior to the loss to Iowa, the Pirates dominated Monmouth 79-52 and St. Peter's 80-44. Both of those teams are ranked very similar to this Wagner team. The Seahawks are also at a scheduling disadvantage here, as they are playing this game on just 1-day of rest after facing Fairfield on Friday. Seton Hall has been off for a full 3 days and should be extremely motivated to get back on track. Give me the Pirates -18.5! |
|||||||
11-19-22 | Maryland v. St. Louis -3 | 95-67 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 2 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: St Louis Billikens -3 I'll take my chances with St Louis as a slim 3-point favorite against Maryland as the two teams face off in Connecticut in the Hall of Fame Tip-Off. I just think there's value here with the Billikens at this price. Both teams are off to a 3-0 start, which I think is playing into the short number. Thing is, Maryland has beat up on a bunch of bad teams, beating Niagara, W Carolina and Binghamton. All 3 of those teams rank outside the top 250 at KenPom. This is also a Maryland team that figures to struggle against the better teams this year. The Terps lost their two best players (Fatts Russell and Eric Ayala) from last year's team and they went just 15-17 with a 7-13 mark in Big Ten play in 2021. As for St Louis, this team is loaded going into the 2022 season. The Billikens returned their top 4 scorers from last year's 23-win team. They have really looked the part early on, beating Murray State 91-68 and most recently Memphis 90-84. Murray State is currently ranked No. 125 at KenPom and Memphis is 29th. Give me the Billikens -3! |
|||||||
11-18-22 | Knicks v. Warriors -6.5 | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
8* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Golden State Warriors -6.5 I'll take my chances with the Warriors as a 6.5-point home favorite against the Knicks on Friday. I know it's been a tough start to the season for Golden State, who comes into this game with a mere 6-9 record. However, almost all of the struggles for the Warriors have come on the road, where they are 0-6 SU and 1-7 ATS. It's a different story at home, where Golden State is 6-1 SU and winning by an average of 10.3 ppg. This should also be a very motivated Warriors team coming off of Wednesday's 119-130 loss at Phoenix. At the same time, the Knicks have to running on fumes. New York pulled arguably the toughest back-to-back in the NBA on Tuesday and Wednesday, playing at Utah and Denver. I don't think just 1 day off with having to travel to California is going to have them refreshed. I like Golden State to really dominate this game from start to finish. Give me the Warriors -6.5! |
|||||||
11-18-22 | Magic v. Bulls -9 | 108-107 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 30 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Chicago Bulls -9 I'll take my chances with the Bulls as a 9-point home favorite against the Magic on Friday. This is a game where I feel pretty comfortable laying the big number with Chicago against a bad Magic team. Not only that, Orlando is dealing with a ton of injuries. This is also a Magic team that has struggled on the road. Orlando is 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS away from home this season. As for Chicago, this is a get right game for them after losing their last 3 and 5 of 6 overall. Not really a bad loss in there for the Bulls, as the losses have come against the Celtics, Raptors, Pelicans (twice) and Nuggets. It's really the same thing as last year for the Bulls, where they beat up on bad teams and fail to deliver against the better teams. It would explain Chicago being an impressive 21-8 ATS over the last 2 seasons as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Bulls are also 24-9 ATS last 33 as a home favorite. Give me Chicago -9! |
|||||||
11-18-22 | Boston College v. George Mason -3.5 | Top | 71-56 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: George Mason -3.5 I will gladly lay the 3.5-points with George Mason as they take on Boston College in the Virgin Islands for the Paradise Jam event. The Patriots had a tall task to start the year, opening the season on the road against Auburn. They hung around with the Tigers for a bit, but would eventually lose 52-70. They have since rebounded with wins and covers against Longwood and American. I really think this is a sneaky team in the A-10 this year, as they got 3 legit scorers who can carry the load. On the flip side of this, I'm way down on this Boston College team. The Eagles are also 2-1, but their wins are not impressive. They beat Cornell 79-77, who is ranked 205th. They also beat Detroit by a score of just 70-66 and they are ranked 227th. The loss is a bad one, as they fell 64-69 at home to 343rd ranked Maine as a 20.5-point favorite. No question this team was way overvalued coming into the season. They have gone from being ranked 74th at KenPom to 105th. Give me George Mason -3.5! |
|||||||
11-17-22 | Spurs +7.5 v. Kings | 112-130 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: San Antonio Spurs +7.5 I'll take my chances with the Spurs as a 7.5-point road dog against the Kings on Thursday. I took it on the chin with my play on Brooklyn against these Kings on Tuesday, as Sacramento would go on to win 153-121. That was clearly a huge game for the Kings, as they don't get a ton of chances to showcase their talents on national TV. Something I should have taken into account a little more than I did. With that said, I'm not sure Sacramento can play a better game than they did. I just feel like there's going to be a letdown here against a Spurs team that hasn't looked great of late, losing 7 of their last. Keep in mind prior to that game against the Nets, Sacramento hosted Golden State, played at LA against the Lakers, hosted the Cavs and played at the Warriors. While the losses are piling up for San Antonio, they have continued to show value, covering in 4 of their last 5 games. It's also worth pointing out that Tuesday's big blowout win over the Nets was Sacramento's only win this season by more than 7 points. Give me the Spurs +7.5! |
|||||||
11-17-22 | Sam Houston State +10.5 v. Utah | 65-55 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
8* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Sam Houston State +10.5 I'll take my chances with the Bearkats as a 10.5-point dog against Utah in the Fort Myers Tip-Off. I'm just not quite understanding all the love for the Utes in this game. Yes, Utah is 3-0, but they should be given they have played LIU, Cal St. Bakersfield and Idaho St. Those are 3 AWFUL offensive teams. LIU ranks 349th in AdjOE, Cal St Bakersfield ranks 331st and Idaho St sits at 353rd. Sam Houston State has beaten two cupcakes (non-DI) opponents in their last two games, but they also went on the road and upset Oklahoma 52-51 as a 16.5-point dog in their opener. Utah has not had super senior Marco Anthony, who was their 2nd leading scorer and top rebounder from last year's 11-20 team. He's listed as questionable, so there's a good chance he won't be available for this game. I just think this Bearkats team is better than they get credit for and one that could be in the NCAA Tournament come March. Give me Sam Houston St +10.5! |
|||||||
11-17-22 | Pittsburgh v. VCU -3.5 | 67-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER: VCU -3.5 I'll take my chances with VCU covering the 3.5-point spread against Pittsburgh. I just think this Panthers team came into this season way overvalued and are still way overvalued. KenPom had Pitt ranked as the 84th best team in the country coming into the year. Now they are 121st. Their two losses have come against Top 50 teams in W Virginia and Michigan, but they weren't competitive in either of those games, losing by 25 to the Mountaineers and by 31 to the Wolverines. Their only win is against Tennessee-Martin, who is ranked 317th and they shot just 37% from the field in that win. VCU also lost last night, falling 59-63 to Arizona State. It was a game the Rams had a double-digit lead in with less than 10 minutes to play in the 2nd half. Don't get me wrong it's not a team I'm crazy about, but the Panthers rank 236th in effective FG% on offense and 247th in that same stat on defense. Give me VCU -3.5! |
|||||||
11-16-22 | Bulls +3.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 110-124 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
10* NBA - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Chicago Bulls +3.5 I'll take my chances with the Bulls as a 3.5-point road dog against the Pelicans tonight. I really like the rest advantage for Chicago in this one, as well as the revenge angle for the Bulls in this matchup. These two teams just played last Wednesday with New Orleans going on the road and beating Chicago 115-111. The Bulls only other game they have played since that meeting is a game against the Nuggets on Sunday, so this will be just the 2nd game in 7 days for Chicago. As for the Pelicans, they will be playing on no rest after a big game last night against Ja Morant and the Grizzlies. It will be New Orleans' 4th game in 7 days. Pelicans didn't have Zion last night and it's unclear if he will play in this one. The line here certainly suggest that he and maybe some others might not suit up for New Orleans. Either way, I like Chicago to cover in this spot. Give me the Bulls +3.5! |
|||||||
11-15-22 | Nets +3 v. Kings | 121-153 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
9* NBA - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER: Brooklyn Nets +3 I'll take my chances with the Nets bouncing back from Sunday's ugly loss to the Lakers with a big road win over the red-hot Kings. Prior to losing 103-116 to the Lakers, Brooklyn had gone 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS over their previous 5 games. They just didn't have much left in the tank for the Lakers playing on no rest after a big effort the night before against the Clippers. They also had to play that game shorthanded with Seth Curry and Ben Simmons both sidelined. Curry had scored 23 and 22 points in his previous 2 games. Curry is probable to play tonight and Simmons has been upgraded to questionable. You also have to tip your hat to the Lakers for making shots. LA shot an uncharacteristic 40% (11-27) from behind the 3-pt line. THis is a Nets defense that had been playing really well prior to that game, holding each of their previous 5 opponents under 100 points. I like them to get back to defending at that level in this game. The other big thing here is the Kings don't play a lot of defense. Sacramento is giving up 116.7 ppg and allowing opponents to shoot a ridiculous 50% from the field on the season. Give me the Nets +3! |
|||||||
11-15-22 | Kansas v. Duke | Top | 69-64 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
10* NCAAB - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Duke Blue Devils PK I'll take my chances with Duke as a Pick'em against Kansas in Tuesday's big Top 10 showdown in Indianapolis. I think there's some value with the Blue Devils to start the year, as people are a little hesitant to fully back this team without Coach K on the sideline. I don't see Duke slipping at all this year. Not with the amazing young talent they have brought in. As for the Jayhawks, I think they are a bit overvalued coming into the 2022-23 season after winning it all last year. Kansas lost three starters and give key contributors from last year's team, including a couple of first round picks. Yes, they added in some nice transfers and some great freshmen of their own, but I just like what I've seen out of Duke a little more in the first couple games of the season. Blue Devils will be out to make a statement in this one. Give me Duke PK! |
|||||||
11-14-22 | Hawks v. Bucks -4 | Top | 121-106 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
10* NBA Vegas Insider TOP PLAY: Milwaukee Bucks -4 I'll take my chances with the Bucks as a 4-point home favorite against the Hawks. I like the revenge spot for Milwaukee in this one, as these two teams played in Atlanta last Monday. A game the Hawks won going away 117-98. You also got the Bucks coming in off an ugly 93-111 loss at San Antonio. Milwaukee is still 9-3 ATS on the season. With Antetokounmpo expected to play, I think that's more than enough to back the Bucks in this spot. Keep in mind that the Bucks were a 4-point road favorite in the last meeting, so despite the change in venue, there's been no adjustment to the line. Atlanta will also be without talented backup big man Onyeka Okongwu. He had a +22 +/- in 22 minutes in the first meeting with Milwaukee. Not having him inside against a guy like Giannis is a huge loss. Bucks are 7-0 at home, outscoring their opponents by 13.0 ppg. Give me Milwaukee -4! |
|||||||
11-14-22 | Richmond -3.5 v. College of Charleston | 90-92 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 16 m | Show | |
8* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER: Richmond Spiders -3.5 I will take my chances with Richmond as 3.5-point road favorite against Charleston. The Spiders lost some key pieces from last year's 24-win team, but have a lot more talent coming back than people think. I also liked what they did in the transfer portal. They took care of business in their opener, beating UNI 68-55 as a 6.5-point home favorite. As for Charleston, they only returned 1 starter from last year's team that went just 17-15 overall and 8-10 in the CAA. The Cougars are also in what I think is a letdown spot, just two days removed from playing UNC on the road. Charleston lost by 16, but they put up a fight in a bit of a track meet, as the Tar Heels won 102-86. This is also a team that has not looked good defensively. They let UNC shoot 60.3% from the field and in their opener against UT-Chattanooga they let them shoot 49.2% from the field. Give me Richmond -3.5! |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Nets -4.5 v. Lakers | 103-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
9* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Brooklyn Nets -4.5 I'll take my chances with the Nets as a 4.5-point road favorite against the Lakers. The suspension of Kyrie and firing of head coach Steve Nash has completely flipped the script for the Nets. Brooklyn is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games. The only loss coming by 2-points on the road to the Mavs. The Lakers are a complete mess right now. LA has lost 5 in a row and failed to cover in all 5. I just don't get why this team continues to get so much respect from the books, especially with LeBron sidelined. Lakers are not a good offensive team at all and are facing a resurgent Nets defense that is giving up a mere 91.2 ppg on 37.7% shooting in their last 5 games. LA's not very good defensively either. They have allowed each of their last 3 and 4 of their last 5 opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. Give me the Nets -4.5! |
|||||||
11-13-22 | North Carolina A&T v. Iowa State -18 | 43-80 | Win | 100 | 3 h 4 m | Show | |
8* NCAAB Sharp Money ATS NO-BRAINER: Iowa State Cyclones -18 I will take my chances with Iowa State as a 18-point home favorite against North Carolina A&T. No question the Cyclones lost a lot from last year's Sweet 16 team, but I'm not expecting any kind of regression from ISU this year. I love their head coach TJ Otzelberger, who did a remarkable coaching job last year. People forget that the Cyclones had just 2 wins the previous year. As for the talent lost, they more than made up for it in the transfer portal, adding some of the best players out of the A-10 to combine with the nice pieces they had coming back. We just saw this North Carolina A&T team lose by 41 points at Iowa on Friday. Its really not asking much for ISU to win here by 20+ at home. Give me the Cyclones -18! |
|||||||
11-12-22 | Hawks v. 76ers -3 | 109-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Philadelphia 76ers -3 I'll take my chances with the 76ers as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Hawks on Saturday. I love the revenge angle here for Philadelphia, as these two teams just played in Atlanta on Thursday and the Hawks were able to come away with a 104-95 win. It's not easy beating the same team twice, especially when you go from playing at home to the road. Atlanta is 3-2 on the road, but two of those wins have come against the Pistons. The other was against a struggling Knicks team, where they had to rally from way behind. I know the offense has struggled of late for the 76ers, but I really love the intensity they are playing with on the defensive side of the ball. I expect that same effort on that side of the ball in the rematch and I got a good feeling about the offense performing much better at home. Hawks are 8-22 ATS last 30 road games with a total in the 220s, 5-16 ATS last 21 on the road when they come in having won 2 of their last 3 and 2-12 ATS last 14 on the road when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the 76ers -3! |
|||||||
11-11-22 | Cavs v. Warriors -1.5 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
8* NBA Late Night ATS ANNIHILATOR: Golden State Warriors -1.5 I'll take my chances with Golden State as a mere 1.5 point home favorite against Cleveland. I just think it's a great spot here to buy-low on the Warriors. Golden State is just 4-7 SU and 3-8 ATS. They have lost 5 of their last 6 and failed to cover in 8 of their last 10. Clearly this is not the same team that won it all last year, at least not yet, but I also think you have to look at the schedule as a reason for their slow start. Golden State is a dreadful 0-6 on the road, yet are a very good 4-1 at home. They will be well rested for this game, having not played since Monday. As for the Cavs, they are finishing up a 5-game road trip that started in Detroit and went out west for the final 4 games. This will be their 4th game in 6 days, all on the road. Give me the Warriors -1.5! |
|||||||
11-11-22 | Northern Iowa v. Richmond -7.5 | 55-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
8* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Richmond -7.5 I got no problem laying single digits with Richmond at home against Northern Iowa. Both of these teams are coming off great seasons. The Spiders went 24-13, while the Panthers finished 20-12. Both lose some real key pieces from last year, but the losses will be felt much more for UNI, who has to replace 4 starters, including Missouri Valley Player of the Year A.J. Green. They have just two kids on their roster that are more than a sophomore and both have barely played in their tenure. Richmond has just two starters back, but both of those are good players in Tyler Burton and Andre Gustavson. They also have much better young talent ready to step up and unlike UNI they added some good players in the portal. Don't be fooled by UNI's 50+ point win over Wartburg in their opener. That's an awful non-DI opponent. Give me Richmond -7.5! |
|||||||
11-11-22 | Florida Atlantic +6.5 v. Ole Miss | 67-80 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Florida Atlantic Owls +6.5 I'll take my chances with FAU as a 6.5-point road dog against Ole Miss on Friday. I think the Owls got a shot of winning this game outright. Ole Miss looks to still be in rebuilding mode. They only returned 3 starters from last year's 13-win team and one of those is star sophomore guard Deashun Ruffin, who didn't play in their opener Monday and figures to still be out as he continues to work his way back from ACL surgery last Feb. As for FAU, they figure to be one of the top teams in C-USA this year. The Owls have 4 starters back from a team that won 19 games last year. They have a really good backcourt duo with Alijah Martin and Michael Forrest. This is also a team that really gets after you on defense. Ole Miss shot just 37.3% from the field at home in their opener against Alcorn State. Give me FAU +6.5! |
|||||||
11-10-22 | Cleveland State v. Cincinnati -22 | 58-69 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Cincinnati Bearcats -22 I'll take my chances with Cincinnati covering as 22-point home favorites against Cleveland State. I don't think the number here is near enough given the mismatch on the floor and at head coach. The Bearcats only two significant losses from last year were Abdul Ado and Mike Saunders Jr., who combined only averaged 9.7 ppg. They get back their star in senior guard David DeJulius and added in Memphis transfer Landers Nolley II to give them another scorer, something they desperately needed last year. This is also a team that is built on defense, behind second year head coach Wes Miller. They should have their way with a Cleveland State team that lost 3 starters, who were really their entire offense. The Vikings 3 starters lost combined to average 39.7 ppg (all 3 in double-figures). Cleveland State also lost head coach Dennis Gates and replaced him with Daniyal Robinson, who has no head coaching experience. I think we saw the writing on the wall for this team in their opener, which they lost outright 68-72 to Notre Dame (OH). Give me the Bearcats -22! |
|||||||
11-10-22 | Southern Illinois +9 v. Oklahoma State | 61-60 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
8* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Southern Illinois +9 I'll take my chances with the Salukis catching 9-points on the road against Oklahoma State. I think this Southern Illinois team has a chance to be at or near the top of the MVC this season. It's as deep and as talented as a team the Salukis have had in what is now year four under head coach Bryan Mullins. They got two of the top 3 returning scorers in the MVC back from last year and added in some really nice transfers. Their bench had over 50 points in their opener, which they won 94-63 over Little Rock as a mere 15-point favorite. As for Oklahoma State, they didn't impress me at all in their opener, sneaking out a 77-66 win at home against UT-Arlington. Something that really has to raise eyebrows given the Mavericks didn't have a single returning starter from a team that went just 11-18 last season. Keep in mind they only won by 11-points with UT-Arlington shooting just 35.6% from the field. I really think Southern Illinois has a shot in this game. Give me the Salukis +9! |
|||||||
11-09-22 | Pelicans -1.5 v. Bulls | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
9* NBA - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR: New Orleans Pelicans -1.5 I'll take my chances with the Pelicans as a slim 1.5-point home favorite against the Bulls on Wednesday. Chicago to me is a good but not great team. Much like they were a year ago, when they beat up on bad teams and struggled against the upper tier of the league. I know the Pelicans have lost 3 of their last 4, but I still think this is one of the better teams when at full strength. I like taking good teams coming off a bad loss and that's exactly what we have here with NO fresh off a 122-129 loss at Indiana as a 5-point favorite. Pelicans are also the slightly fresher team, playing just their 3rd game in 5 days, where Chicago is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the Pelicans -1.5! |
|||||||
11-09-22 | Knicks v. Nets -2.5 | 85-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
10* NBA Sharp Money Vegas Insider: Brooklyn Nets -2.5 I'll take my chances with Brooklyn laying 2.5 at home against the Knicks on Wednesday. I'm not surprised at all the Nets have improved after firing Nash and suspending Irving. Nash just wasn't a good fit for the makeup of this team and I think some of the Brooklyn players were getting a little sick of Kyrie. You can just see the difference in the attitude of the guys on the floor in these last few games. Speaking of that, Brooklyn has covered 3 straight since the Nash/Irving exodus and have really locked in defensively in these games. They held the Wizards to 86, Hornets to 94 and the Mavs to 96. All on the road. I like that trend to continue in this game. I also think this is a geat matchup for the Nets offense, as the Knicks have been really wanting to play uptempo this year. I think playing in the open floor will allow the other guys for Brooklyn to take some of the load of KD and allow the Nets to win this game going away. Give me Brooklyn -2.5! |
|||||||
11-08-22 | Rider +13.5 v. Providence | 65-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Rider Broncs +13.5 I'll take my chances with Rider catching 13.5-points on the road against the Friars. This to me has the making of a potential upset. Providence lost a ton from last year's team that won the Big East regular season title and went on to advance to the Sweet 16. Just 3 players return who were with the program from last year. They lost 4 guys who averaged 10 or more points per game. Rider on the other hand is an experienced team with 4 starters back and should be a serious player for the top spot in the MAAC this year. I just think given all the new faces for Providence, we could see this team struggle a bit to start the year. This is also a Friars team that was extremely fortunate in close games a season ago, which is very hard to sustain from one season to the next. Give me the Broncs +13.5! |
|||||||
11-07-22 | Nuggets v. Spurs +7.5 | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show | |
8* NBA Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: San Antonio Spurs +7.5 I'll take my chances with the Spurs as a 7.5-point home dog against the Nuggets. Love the revenge angle for San Antonio in this one. These two teams both played each other in their last game, which was at Denver on Saturday. Nuggets won that won going away 126-101. Never easy to beat a team in back-to-back games with such a short period of time between games. I think it's even harder for the team that won if the first game wasn't competitive. Look for San Antonio to respond with a big effort here and while I'll gladly take the points, I could see them winning this game outright. Give me the Spurs +7.5! |
|||||||
11-07-22 | Raptors v. Bulls -4 | 97-111 | Win | 100 | 20 h 44 m | Show | |
9* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Chicago Bulls -4 I'll take my chances with Chicago as a 4-point home favorite against the Raptors. Love the revenge spot for the Bulls in this one. These two teams played in Toronto yesterday and the Raptors won that game 113-104. Chicago played without Zach LaVine, as he sat out the first of a back-to-back. He's expected to be back for the rematch. On the flip side, Raptors are down Pascal Siakam right now and it will interesting to see how Fred VanVleet performs in the second of a back-to-back with his bad back. Either way, I like the Bulls to win and cover. Give me Chicago -4! |
|||||||
11-07-22 | George Mason +12.5 v. Auburn | 52-70 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 7 m | Show | |
8* NCAAB Opening Night ATS SHOCKER: George Mason +12.5 I'll take my chances with George Mason as a 12.5-point road dog against No. 15 ranked Auburn. Until they show me otherwise, the Tigers are a team I'll be looking to fade early on this season. This team lost a lot inside with the departures of Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler. Combined the two averaged 29.3 ppg and 15.5 rpg. There's also a chance Johni Broome will be sidelined with an ankle injury. Allen Flanigan, Jaylin Williams and Jalen Harper are all also questionable to play with an illness. As for the Patriots, I think this is a team that could surprise in the A-10 this year. Give me George Mason +12.5! |
|||||||
11-07-22 | Ohio +5.5 v. Belmont | Top | 69-70 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Opening Night PLAY OF THE YEAR: Ohio Bobcats +5.5 I'll take my chances with Ohio as a 5.5-point road dog against Belmont. This is nowhere close to the Bruins team that went 25-8 last year. Belmont lost a ton from last year's team. They get back their top scorer in Ben Sheppard, but the next 8 top scorers have all departed. This team does recruit and develop talent well, but I expect some early season struggles, especially in the betting market. Ohio technically only gets two starters back from last year, but big man Dwight Wilson III is alo returning from a knee injury that kept him out last year. Expect a very competitive game and one Ohio very well may win going away. Give me the Bobcats +5.5! |
|||||||
11-05-22 | Celtics -4 v. Knicks | 133-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
8* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Boston Celtics -4 I'll take my chances with the Celtics laying 4-points on the road against the Knicks. Boston has started to look more like the team we expected to see coming into this year the last few days. The Celtics have won 3 of their last 4 games with the only loss coming by 1-point in Cleveland. The Knicks come in off a 106-104 win at Philly last night, but the 76ers were without their two best players in Embiid and Harden. Their only other 3 wins on the season are against 3 bottom feeders in the Pistons, Magic and Hornets. I also think with both teams playing here on no rest, we are going to see the depth of the Celtics reign supreme in this game. Give me Boston -4! |
|||||||
11-04-22 | Hornets +11.5 v. Grizzlies | 99-130 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
9* NBA Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Charlotte Hornets +11.5 I'll take my chances with the Hornets catching 11.5 points on the road against the Grizzlies. This to me is a good buy-low spot on Chicago. No one is going to want to bet the Hornets in this game. Charlotte has lost and failed to cover in their last two games. Most recently losing by 18-points as a 4.5-point dog in Chicago on Wednesday. Charlotte will also be without Gordon Hayward, Terry Rozier and Cody Martin are also both doubtful. I think that's created some value in this line, as we don't need the Hornets to win this game, we just need them to not stink it up. I think if Memphis really wanted to they could win this game by 20+ points. However, I don't see the Grizzlies being all that motivated in this one. Memphis just finished up a 4-game west coast trip on Wednesday, which was also their 6th road game out of their last 7 overall. Not uncommon to see a team come out flat that is coming off a lengthy road trip where they had to change multiple time zones. This is also a Grizzlies team that has been a bit overvalued in the market early on, going just 2-4-1 ATS thru 8 games. Give me the Hornets +11.5! |
|||||||
11-04-22 | Bulls v. Celtics -7 | 119-123 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
8* NBA - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Boston Celtics -7 This line to me screams take Boston and that's exactly what I'm going to do. No one is going to want to lay this kind of number with the Celtics against the Bulls given how these two team are playing. Chicago has won their last two games and covered in convincing fashion. The Bulls won 108-99 at Brooklyn as a 2-point dog and then destroyed Charlotte 106-88 as a mere 4.5-point home favorite. Boston on the other hand has lost 3 of their last 4 and gone just 1-4 ATS in their last 5. Maybe I'm putting a little too much faith in the Celtics, but this is a game I think they step up and deliver one of their better performances. This is too good a team to keep playing as poorly as they have. Boston also figures to come into this game with a little extra given it's Chicago, as the Bulls laid it on them about 10 days ago in a 120-102 win in Chicago. This is also not a great scheduling spot for the Bulls, who will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and 5th game in the last 8 days. I could definitely see this being a flat spot for them. Give me the Celtics -7! |
|||||||
11-03-22 | Nuggets v. Thunder +6.5 | 122-110 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
8* NBA Sharp Money ATS MASSACRE: Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5 I'll take my chances with Oklahoma City as a 6.5-point home dog against the Nuggets. The Thunder have been a massive BET ON team to start out the 2022-23 season. OKC expected to be one of the worst teams in the league, comes in at 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS. All 4 of those wins coming in their last 4 games. Until the public gets on board and forces the books to start adjusting the numbers, there's no reason not to keep betting this team. These two teams played once already this season in Denver and while the Nuggets won that game, they did so by a final score of just 122-117. OKC got the cover as a 8.5-point dog. Further backing how the books have not adjusted on this Thunder team, there's only been a 2-point adjustment in the line based off the first meeting and that's with Denver playing the first game at home and now on the road, where we would expect to see closer to a 5-point swing. Denver is just 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road this season, so I'm not sure why they are getting so much lover here. Nuggets also not performing all that great, as they are only scoring 1.2 points above expected given what their opponents have allowed and are giving up 4.1 ppg more than what their opponents typically score. Give me the Thunder +6.5! |
|||||||
11-02-22 | Grizzlies v. Blazers +3.5 | 111-106 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
8* NBA Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT: Portland Trail Blazers +3.5 I'll take my chances with the Blazers as a 3.5-point home dog against the Grizzlies on Wednesday. I'm not so sure Portland shouldn't be favored in this game. Yes, the Blazers are down star point guard Damian Lillard, but there's a lot of talent on this team and they know how to get the job done without Lillard after all the time he misses last season. Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant and Jusuf Nurkic are all capable of carrying the load offensively. At the same time, I think Memphis is a team that came into this season overpriced and it's shown in the Grizzlies start to the season. Memphis is just 4-3 SU and 2-4-1 ATS. This is also a banged up Memphis team, that is still without Jaren Jackson Jr. They could also be down both Steven Adams and Desmond Bane, who are both questionable. Give me the Blazers +3.5! |
|||||||
11-02-22 | Hornets +5.5 v. Bulls | 88-106 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
9* NBA - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Charlotte Hornets +5.5 I will gladly take my chances with the Hornets as a 5.5-point road dog against the Bulls on Wednesday. Good spot here to fade Chicago, as the Bulls will be on no rest after last night's 108-99 road win over the Nets. Bulls have been pretty cautious with LaVine early on and I believe there's a good chance he sits in the second of a back-to-back. Chicago is also without Drummond, who was playing extremely well early on and could also be without one of their better reserves in Coby White. Charlotte has exceeded expectations without LaMelo Ball and I just feel they are still a bit undervalued. Hornets are coming of a 108-115 loss at home to the Kings that has to have them hungry to get back on the floor, as Charlotte somehow lost the game despite them shooting 51.2% from the field and Sacramento only connecting on 43.5% of their attempts. Give me the Hornets +5.5! |
|||||||
11-02-22 | Kings +6.5 v. Heat | 107-110 | Win | 100 | 19 h 2 m | Show | |
9* NBA - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Sacramento Kings +6.5 I'll gladly take my chances with the Kings as a 6.5-point road dog against the Heat on Wednesday. Great spot here to fade Miami, who will be playing on no rest after a thrilling 116-109 win at home over the Warriors last night. A game in which the Heat had to rally from way down in the 4th quarter to win (outscored GS 30-15 in the 4th). On the flip side, Kings come in having won 2 in a row and this is a talented young team that I feel is being undervalued right now with their 2-4 SU record. Kings have proven that, covering 4 of their last 5. I not only like them to keep this close, but I give them a great shot here of winning outright. Give me Sacramento +6.5! |
|||||||
11-02-22 | Hawks v. Knicks -1.5 | 112-99 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 41 m | Show | |
8* NBA - Smart Money ATS MASSACRE: New York Knicks -1.5 I will gladly take my chances with the Knicks as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against the Hawks on Wednesday. I have really liked what I've seen out of New York, but feel they are flying a bit under the radar with their mere 3-3 start to the season. Thing is, the Knicks 3 losses have all come on the road and all against some of the better teams in the league in Memphis, Milwaukee and Cleveland. New York should also be fresh here playing on a full 2 days rest, where Atlanta has to be running on fumes playing their fifth road game in the last 8 days. Give me the Knicks -1.5! |
|||||||
11-01-22 | Wolves +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 107-116 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5 I'll take my chances with the Timberwolves as a 5.5-point road dog against the Suns. This will be the second game of Tuesday's double-header on TNT. I believe because this is going to be a heavily bet game, the books have inflated the number on Phoenix to where there's just too much value to pass up on Minnesota. Suns come in having won and covered each of their last 4 games. The offense has really carried them during this win streak, as they come in having shot 50% or better from the field in each of their last 3 games. Thing is, that hot shooting has come against some bad defensive teams or in the case of the Pelicans a team missing some of their best players. As expected, Minnesota's defense has greatly improved with the addition of Rudy Gobert. Timberwolves are currently ranked No. 4 in the league in defensive efficiency. Portland is the only team Phoenix has played that currently ranks in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency. Blazers held Phoenix to just 113 points and a season-worst 45.7% shooting. The other big thing here is the Suns are down one of their best players in Deandre Ayton, who missed their last game against the Rockets and is expected to be out at least a week. His absence is really going to be felt in this matchup with Gobert on the other side. I like the Timberwolves to not only cover, but to win outright. Give me Minnesota +5.5! |
|||||||
10-30-22 | Wizards +8.5 v. Celtics | 94-112 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
9* NBA No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER: Washington Wizards +8.5 I'll take my chances with the Wizards as a 8.5-point road dog against the Celtics. Boston is getting way too much respect from the books right now. The Celtics are not playing great basketball right now. In their last two games they have lost 102-120 at Chicago and 123-132 at home to the Cavs. This is also a team that has just 1 win on the season by more than the spread here and that was their 11-point win against the 76ers in the opener. The big thing that is holding back the Celtics is their defense. Boston has allowed 120+ points in each of their last 3 games. Boston is giving up 118.6 ppg on 48.4% shooting for the season. That spikes to 124.5 ppg and 50.6% at home, which is shocking. Wizards are going to be up for a shot at the defending Eastern Conference champs and it's a good buy-low spot on Washington after Friday's ugly 117-127 home loss to the Hornets as a 5-point favorite. Give me the Wizards +8.5! |
|||||||
10-28-22 | Jazz +9 v. Nuggets | Top | 101-117 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
10* NBA Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER: Utah Jazz +9 I will gladly take the Jazz as a 9-point road dog against the Nuggets tonight. Utah has arguably been the most undervalued team in the league to start the season. Everyone thought the Jazz were in full on tank mode, yet they have come out and gone 4-1 in their first 5 games, with 3 of those wins coming as dogs of 6.5 or more. That includes a 123-102 win at home over these Nuggets to open the season. I'm sure Denver hasn't forgot about that game, but 9 points is way too many for them to be laying in this spot. The Nuggets just gave a big effort in a prime time game against the Lakers on Wednesday. Utah is getting great contributions across the board and maybe the most surprising thing with this team is how they are defending. The Jazz are sitting 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency right now. Give me Utah +9! |
|||||||
10-28-22 | Knicks +6.5 v. Bucks | 108-119 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 58 m | Show | |
9* NBA No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER: New York Knicks +6.5 I will gladly take my chances with the Knicks as a 6.5-point road dog against the Bucks on Friday. I've really liked what I've seen out of New York to start this new season. They are 3-1 with their only loss coming in OT at Memphis in the season opener. Jalen Brunson has been everything they hoped for and more, as he finally gives them a calming presence when the game is on the line in the 4th quarter. Got to believe the Knicks will be highly motivated here against the Bucks. Milwaukee is off to a 3-0 start and have covered each of the first 3 games. The books aren't going to let this team keep covering. They are going to keep inflating the number and this line definitely feels like it's at least a couple points too high. It's been all Giannis early on for the Bucks. The Greek Freak has scored 40+ in each of the last two games and is averaging 36.0 ppg on the season. The next best scorer on the team is Bobby Portis at just 14.7 ppg. It's not an efficient way to win and the Bucks come in ranked 25th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Knicks are Top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Give me New York +6.5! |
|||||||
10-28-22 | 76ers +1.5 v. Raptors | 112-90 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Philadelphia 76ers +1.5 I'll take my chances with the 76ers as a 1.5-point road dog in Friday's road rematch against the Raptors. These two teams played in Toronto on Wednesday and the Raptors were able to prevail 119-109. The loss dropped Philly to 1-4 on the season. It's also a pretty big adjustment given they were just a 2-point road favorite in the game on Wednesday. It's never easy beating a team in the NBA twice in a row, especially when it's the last team you faced. Philly should be the more motivated team and if they can just turn up the defensive intensity a few notches, they should be able to win this game, as Toronto really doesn't have the bigs to contain Embiid. Raptors are just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 at home off a win by 10 or more, while the 76ers are 8-2 ATS last 10 off an upset loss by 10 or more as a favorite. Give me the 76ers +1.5! |
|||||||
10-26-22 | Rockets v. Jazz -6.5 | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Utah Jazz -6.5 I will gladly take my chances with Utah laying a mere 6.5-points at home against the Rockets. This might seem like a bad line, given these two teams just played in Houston on Monday and the Rockets won that meeting 114-108 as a 2.5-point dog. Thing is, that was an awful spot for Utah, as they were playing on no rest and their 3rd game in 4 nights. Not to mention the game the night before against the Pelicans went to OT. Prior to winning that game, the Rockets were 0-3 without a single cover and had lost each of those 3 games by at least 7 points. Utah prior to the loss was a perfect 3-0, absolutely destroying the spread. They won by 21 as a 6.5-point dog against the Nuggets, by 6 as a 8-point dog at Minnesota and by 1 as a 8 point dog at New Orleans. Give me the Jazz -6.5! |
|||||||
10-26-22 | Magic +8.5 v. Cavs | 92-103 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
8* NBA - Public Money ATS SLAUGHTER: Orlando Magic +8.5 I'll take my chances with the Magic as a 8.5-point road dog against the Cavs. Orlando comes into this game getting zero love from the books. The Magic are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS to start the season. It hasn't been as bad as the records would suggest. Orlando was a 3.5-point dog in a 4-point loss at Detroit, were a 9-point dog in a 10-point loss at Atlanta. They also lost by just 6 as a 8.5-point dog at home against the Celtics. The only bad loss was a 13-point setback at New York and they only trailed by 6 in that game with around 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. Not saying the Magic will win this game, but I like them to keep it close against a Cavs team that could be a little over-confident after two blowout wins. Cleveland could also be looking ahead to Friday's huge matchup at Boston. Give me the Magic +8.5! |
|||||||
10-25-22 | Pistons +5.5 v. Wizards | 99-120 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
9* NBA - No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER: Detroit Pistons +5.5 I'll take my chances with the Pistons as a 5.5-point road dog against the Wizards. I like Detroit to come out with a big effort here against Washington. The Pistons have lost two straight since winning their opener. One of those was an ugly 24-point loss at New York, where the Knicks couldn't miss. The other was on the second of a back-to-back against the Pacers, where Detroit couldn't buy a basket. Having had the last two days off, I really like the Pistons to play well in this spot. Washington is 2-1, but both wins came down to the wire. The Wizards snuck out a 114-107 win at Indiana in their opener and then barely held on for a 102-100 win at home against the Bulls. It's also worth pointing out that 3 of the 4 games between these two teams last year were decided by 3 points or less. Give me the Pistons +5.5! |
|||||||
10-24-22 | Raptors +3.5 v. Heat | Top | 98-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Toronto Raptors +3.5 I'll gladly take my chances with the Raptors as a 3.5-point road dog against Miami on Monday. These two teams just played each other in Miami on Saturday, so this is a true rematch. The Heat won that first meeting on their home floor 112-109, but it was Toronto that rallied from a big 1st half deficit to make a game of it. I look for the Raptors to be the much more motivated team in the rematch. Miami is just 18-32 (36%) ATS in their last 50 home games off a win by 3-points or less. Going back to last season, Toronto is 18-8 ATS last 26 off a SU loss. Give me the Raptors +3.5! |
|||||||
10-21-22 | Magic +8.5 v. Hawks | 98-108 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 52 m | Show | |
9* NBA - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Orlando Magic +8.5 I'll take chances with the Magic as a 8.5-point dog at Atlanta on Friday. Orlando just missed out on a cover in their season opener, losing 109-113 at Detroit as a 4-point dog. I thought there was a lot of positives to take for the Magic in that game. Most notably the play of rookie Pablo Banchero, who had 27 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists and 2 blocks. I feel like the Magic have a very underrated starting 5 with Banchero, Suggs, Wagner, Carter Jr and Ross. Hawks are a team I'll be looking to bad, as I really like their backcourt duo of Young and Murray. With that said, I think the price here is a little steep. Atlanta got 43 points and 24 assists from Young and Murray in their opener and only won that game by 10. They led by just 4 going into the 4th quarter. Give me the Magic +8.5! |
|||||||
10-21-22 | Pistons +6.5 v. Knicks | Top | 106-130 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Detroit Pistons +6.5 I will take my chances with the Pistons as a 6.5-point road dog against the Knicks on Friday. I really like the makeup of this Detroit team. We saw them go on an ATS tear last year and while they won't cover at that same clip, this to me feels like a few too many given the tough spot for the Knicks. New York is coming off a 112-115 OT loss at Memphis on Wednesday, where they had to use a ton of energy to rally from a 19-point deficit. I look for the Knicks to come out a bit flat against a young and hungry Pistons team. Give me Detroit +6.5! |
|||||||
10-21-22 | Bulls v. Wizards +1 | 100-102 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show | |
9* NBA - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Washington Wizards +1 We played on the Bulls +7 in their 116-108 upset win on the road against the Heat. It was an impressive win for Chicago, who is starting the season without Lonzo Bal and ended up not having Zach LaVine. We know Ball won't go in this one and chances are Ball will sit again, as they try to get his knee right. I think the big upset win has the Bulls a bit overvalued coming into this game against a very underrated Wizards team, who opened their season with a 114-107 road win over the Pacers. Washington has a very underrated 1-2-3 punch with Beal, Porzingis and Kuzma. Give me the Wizards +1! |
|||||||
10-20-22 | Bucks v. 76ers -3.5 | 90-88 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 23 m | Show | |
9* NBA - No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER: Philadelphia 76ers -3.5 I will gladly take my chances with the 76ers covering as a 3.5-point home favorite against the Bucks. I really like this spot with Philly. A lot of people aren't going to feel good about laying a short number with the 76ers after Tuesday's 117-126 loss at Boston. I'm actually more inclined to back Philly because of how that game against the Celtics played out. You can't overreact to teams getting worked by Boston this year. The Celtics to me are in a class of their own in the Eastern Conference. I know some will lump this Milwaukee team in there with Boston, but this is not a team that is overly concerned about the regular-season. The Bucks are also without Khris Middleton for a few weeks to start the season, as well as one of their top reserves in Pat Connaughton. Getting back to the 76ers, I did think there were some positives to take in that loss to the Celtics. James Harden looks to be more in line with the player he was in Houston than the overweight and sloppy Harden we got the last couple years with Brooklyn and Philly. The 76ers have a legit 1-2-3 scoring punch with Harden, Embiid and Maxey. I also think they are a better 3-point shooting team than what we saw in the opener with them going 13-34 (38.2%) from deep. I really like this team to bounce back with a big effort at home and to easily cover this spread. Give me the 76ers -3.5! |
|||||||
10-19-22 | Bulls +7 v. Heat | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
9* NBA Sharp Money NO-BRAINER: Chicago Bulls +7 I will take my chances with the Bulls as a 7-point road dog at Miami in Wednesday's season opener for these two teams. I just don't understand the lack of respect this Chicago team is getting coming into this season. Everyone seems to forget how good this team was to start out last year before injuries derailed their season. While they will be without one of their better players in Lonzo Ball to start the season, they still got a pretty good 1-2 punch with LaVine and DeRozan. Everyone likes this Miami team after coming up just short of the NBA Finals last year and finishing the regular-season with the best record in the Eastern Conference. I don't know that they are a Top 4 team in the East this year. I think they are clearly a step behind the Bucks and Celtics and I could easily see them finishing behind both the Nets and 76ers. To me this team is a bit overvalued coming into this season and it's showing in this line. Give me the Bulls +7! |
|||||||
10-19-22 | Cavs +2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 105-108 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
10* NBA - Opening Night VEGAS INSIDER: Cleveland Cavaliers +2.5 I really like the Cavs as a 2.5-point underdog in Wednesday's season opener at the Raptors. This is nothing against Toronto, who I think has a tendency to be undervalued, I just am really high on this Cleveland team coming into this season. Addition of Donovan Mitchell gives the Cavs one of the more underrated starting fives in the league with him paired alongside Darius Garland, Caris LaVert, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. I really look for the size of Mobley and Allen to be huge in this game, as the Raptors are not a very big team with Pascal Siakam listed as the starting center on the depth chart. There will be no easy buckets for Toronto in this game and Cleveland should be able to abuse them on the other side down low. As long as the Raptors don't go crazy from behind the 3-point line, the Cavs should win here rather easily. Give me Cleveland +2.5! |
|||||||
06-16-22 | Warriors +4 v. Celtics | Top | 103-90 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
Warriors/Celtics MAX UNIT Top Play (Warriors +4) I'll take my chances with the Warriors as a 4-point dog in Game 6 of the NBA Finals. I know it's Boston that is facing elimination at home, but my money is on Golden State to finish off this thing tonight and not let it go to a Game 7. I thought it was really impressive how the Warriors were able to win Game 5 without a great offensive night from Steph Curry, who scored just 16 points on 7 of 22 shooting (0 for 9 on 3-pointers). It speaks volumes to just how good this Golden State defense has been. Boston is struggling to get anything out of their role players and continue to make it tough for both Tatum and Brown to get going. I look for Curry to bounce back in a big way tonight and more of the same from the Warriors defense. Give me Golden State +4! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
|||||||
06-13-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 94-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
Celtics/Warriors Game 5 VEGAS INSIDER (Warriors -3.5) I'll take my chances with the Warriors as a 3.5-point home favorite in Game 5 at home. Golden State evened up the series at 2-2 behind an epic performance from Steph Curry in Friday's 107-97 win at Boston in Game 4. Warriors did lose Game 1 at home after being up 12 going into the 4th quarter, but they came back and dominated Game 2 at home 107-88. I just have a lot more trust in Golden State. Curry is without question the best player on the floor and we can expect a lot more out of the other guys at home. Give me the Warriors -3.5! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
|||||||
06-10-22 | Warriors +4 v. Celtics | Top | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
Warriors/Celtics MAX UNIT Top Play (Warriors +4) I'll take my chances with Golden State at +4 in Game 4 of the NBA Finals. This feels like a must-win for the Warriors with Boston up 2-1 after Tuesday's 116-100 win in Game 3. The Celtics came out on fire in Game 3 and it really felt like they should be up 20+ in the 1st Half. Even then Golden State was able to rally back in the 3rd quarter. They just didn't have enough gas in the tank to finish it off. Celtics got 27 from Brown, 26 from Tatum and 24 from Smart. I don't see them getting that kind of all-around production from those 3 again in Game 4. On the flip side, we know Curry is going to be great. All we need is for the bench to give them more than the 18 points they scored in Game 3. Mainly we need more out of Poole and I think he delivers. I'll take the points for insurance, but I like the Warriors to win this game outright. Give me Golden State +4! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
|||||||
06-08-22 | Warriors +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 100-116 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
Warriors/Celtics Game 3 MAX UNIT Top Play (Warriors +3.5) I'll take my chances with the Warriors as a 3.5-point road dog in Game 3 of the NBA Finals. If not for that unbelievable shot making in Game 1 by Boston, this series would be 2-0 in favor of Golden State. Keep in mind the Warriors were up double-digits going into that 4th quarter of Game 1. They won Game 2 by by 19. Golden State to me has looked like the better team for 7 of the 8 quarters and that's with them getting almost nothing out of Klay Thompson. I just feel as long as Steph Curry continues to play at the level he's played in the first two games, it's going to be a tall task for Boston to win this series. The other big thing that doesn't get quite the attention that it deserves is the Warriors defense. After hitting 21 3-pointers (9 in the 4th quarter) of Game 1, Boston still managed to make 15 in Game 2, yet were only able to score 88 points. Give me the Warriors +3.5! Confidence Rating: 10(Scale of 1-10) |
|||||||
06-05-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -4 | Top | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
Celtics/Warriors MAX Unit Top Play (Warriors -4) I backed Golden State in Game 1 and took it on the chin. Warriors were up by as many 15 in the 3rd quarter and led by 12 going into the 4th quarter. The Celtics then played what has to be one of the greatest 4th quarters by a single team in NBA Finals history. Boston simply couldn't miss. They started the quarter making 7 straight 3's and ended up 9 for 11 when it was all said and done. For the game the Celtics shot 21-41 (51.2%) from behind the 3-pt line. I don't see them putting up anything close to those kind of numbers in Game 2. I get they won that game without Tatum putting up huge offensive numbers, but he still had a big impact with 13 assists. He had a hand in close to 40 points. He might score a few more in Game 2, but his assists will likely go way down. Warriors got a great game from Curry and Wiggins, but no one else really did much. Draymond didn't have his normal impact, Thompson could never get it going and Jordan Poole was basically a no show. This is also a do or die moment for Golden State. They lose this game and go down 0-2 with 3 of the next 4 in Boston, it's all but over. My money is on the Warriors not letting that happen. Give me Golden State -4! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
|||||||
06-02-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Celtics/Warriors Game 1 MAX UNIT Top Play (Warriors -3.5) Give me Golden State -3.5 at home in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Sure, Boston had the tougher road to the Finals, but that doesn't mean that makes them more ready for this series. If anything, I think it's an advantage for Golden State. Boston has just played two grueling 7-game series against the Bucks and Heat. I also think the Warriors are an entire different beast than what the Celtics have seen so far in these playoffs. Brooklyn was not a good defensive team. Milwaukee and Miami were both really good defensively, but were so reliant on one guy to carry them offensively. Golden State is a very good defensive team and in my opinion are the hardest team in the NBA to defend. I think this line should be closer to 5. Give me the Warriors -3.5! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
|||||||
05-29-22 | Celtics v. Heat +2.5 | Top | 100-96 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
Celtics/Heat Game 7 MAX UNIT Top Play (Heat +2.5) I'll take my chances with the Heat at +2.5 at home in Game 7. The entire outlook of this series shifted in Game 6 when Jimmy Butler returned to form. After knee inflammation really limited him in Game 3 and Game 4, Butler put on a show in Game 6 with a 47-point performance on the road facing elimination. Butler also had 9 rebounds and 8 assists. He looked like a different guy and with him playing at that level, I like the Heat to win this game and return to the NBA Finals. Give me the Heat +2.5! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
|||||||
05-26-22 | Mavs +7 v. Warriors | Top | 110-120 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
Western Conf Finals (Game 5) MAX UNIT Top Play (Mavs +7) I'll take my chances with the Mavs as a 7-pt dog at Golden State in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. I think the assumption is that the Warriors didn't have the right mindset up 3-0 in Game 4. Everyone just says that was Dallas' game to get. I get it, but you also got to look at the whole picture. Mavs got blown out in Game 1, which was to be expected coming off a Game 7 win over the Suns after trailing in that series 2-3. They had a HUGE lead and blew it in Game 2 and in Game 3 half their team couldn't buy a shot and they still only lost by 9. Coming back from a 3-0 deficit has never been done. I don't think it happens here, but I do think Dallas at the very least is going to make a game of it. Doncic, not Curry, is the best player on the floor. If his teammates can knock down a few 3's, they could definitely win this game. Give me the Mavs +7! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
|||||||
05-24-22 | Warriors v. Mavs | Top | 109-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
Western Conf Finals (Game 4) MAX UNIT Top Play (Mavs PK) I'll take my chances with the Mavs at a pick'em at home in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals. This series might be over with Golden State up 3-0, but that doesn't mean Dallas isn't going to go down without a fight. Mavs really should have won Game 2 at Golden State, as they were up big before a 2nd half collapse. They also have to feel like they beat themselves in Game 3 with the inability of their role players like Finney-Smith, Bullock and Kleber to hit shots. Those 3 were a combined 2 for 17 from behind the 3-point line. Look for those guys to shoot a lot better and for the Mavs to find a way to win this game and at the least extend this thing to a Game 5 on Thursday. Give me the Mavs PK! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
|||||||
05-23-22 | Heat v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
Eastern Conf Finals (Game 4) MAX UNIT Top Play (Celtics -6.5) I'll gladly take my chances with the Celtics as a 6.5-point home favorite in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals. This series has seen the Heat win Game 1 by 9, Boston win Game 2 by 25 and Miami take Game 3 by 6. Celtics couldn't have played much worse in Game 3 and still almost pulled it off. Boston got outscored 18-31 in the 1st period and fell behind by as many as 26 in the 1st half. Celtics were able to make a game of it, despite getting next to nothing out of Tatum and them having an uncharacteristic 23 turnovers. The other big thing is the health of Miami. Jimmy Butler left in the 1st half and did not return with a knee injury. Tyler Herro also played 20 mins battling a groin injury. Heat's offense scored just 23, 25 and 21 over the final 3 quarters. Give me the Celtics -6.5! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
|||||||
05-22-22 | Warriors v. Mavs -2.5 | Top | 109-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
Western Conf Finals (Game 3) MAX UNIT Top Play (Mavs -2.5) I'll take my chances with the Mavs -2.5 in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals. It's do or die for Dallas after losing the first 2 games in Golden State. While they weren't all that competitive in Game 1, that was to be expected coming off that Game 7 against the Suns. They really should have won Game 2, as they jumped out to a huge lead before falling apart in the 2nd Half. As tough as that loss was to swallow, I think it did give this Mavs team some confidence that they can hang with this Warriors team. Golden State has had a problem of just going thru the motions in these playoffs and I think they struggle to match the intensity of the Mavs in Game 3 on the road. Give me the Mavs -2.5! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
|||||||
05-20-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -6 | Top | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
Western Conf Finals (Game 2) MAX UNIT Top Play (Warriors -6) We cashed on the Warriors in Game 1 and will fire right back with Golden State at -6 in Game 2. I'm a huge Doncic fan and I expect him to play better than he did in Game 1. I just don't think he's going to get enough help from his role players on the road to keep this close. Doncic could score 40+ and the Mavs could still lose by double-digits. Golden State has been the best team in the West when healthy and I really don't see this series going all that long. Give me the Warriors -6! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
|||||||
05-18-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 87-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
Western Conference Finals MAX UNIT Top Play (Warriors -4.5) I'll gladly take my chances with the Warriors as a 4.5-point home favorite in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. Golden State should be a bigger favorite here. Not only are the Warriors the better team, but this is a really tough spot for the Mavs, who are coming off back-to-back wins in elimination games against the Suns. Very similar scenario to what we saw last night in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Celtics just ran out of gas and just didn't have that killer instinct on the defensive side as they did avoiding elimination in Games 6 and 7 vs the Bucks. Warriors haven't played in 4 days and are a perfect 6-0 at home in the playoffs so far. Give me Golden State -4.5! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
|||||||
05-17-22 | Celtics v. Heat -1.5 | Top | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Finals MAX UNIT Top Play (Heat -1.5) I'll take my chances with the Heat as a slim -1.5 home favorite against the Celtics in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. I think Miami continues to get disrespected. Most are picking the Celtics in this series, despite the fact that the Heat, the No. 1 seed in the East, has done exactly what they are suppose to do so far in the playoffs. Miami beat the Hawks in 5 in the 1st round and just disposed of the 76ers in 6 to get here. All 3 of their playoffs losses have come on the road. They are 6-0 at home and just one of those wins at home came by fewer than 9 points. The other big thing besides homecourt is the Celtics figure to have a bit of a letdown here. Boston just won back-to-back elimination games, with the Game 7 clincher against the Bucks coming just 2 days ago. Give me the Heat -1.5! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
|||||||
05-15-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Suns | 123-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Mavericks/Suns Game 7 Vegas Insider (Mavs +6.5) I'll gladly take my chances with the Mavs as a 6.5-point dog in Game 7 against the Suns. I love Dallas to at the very least make a game of this and give them close to 50/50 shot at winning the game outright. Suns are the better team, but the Mavs have the best player in Doncic. Phoenix has had no answer for him and I think they may have made a big mistake talking trash to Doncic earlier in this series. The other big story in this series is the Mavs defense on Chris Paul. After averaging 22 and 11 in their 1st round series with the Pelicans, he's averaging a mere 14 and 6. He's scored just 25 points combined in the last 3 games of this series. Give me the Mavs +6.5! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
|||||||
05-15-22 | Bucks +5.5 v. Celtics | 81-109 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
Bucks/Celtics Game 7 ATS No-Brainer (Bucks +5.5) I'll take my chances with the Bucks getting 5.5 in Game 7 on the road against the Celtics. While Boston avoided elimination with a 108-95 win at Milwaukee in Game 6, no team has been able to win back-to-back games in this series. The underdog has covered 5 of the 6 games to this point. Boston might have the better team, but Milwaukee has the best player in Antetokounmpo. Boston has no answer for him. He's averaging 40 ppg over the last 4 games of the series. I also like Milwaukee as a team in this spot, as they aren't going to be overcome by the moment. Give me the Bucks +5.5! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
|||||||
05-13-22 | Celtics v. Bucks -1.5 | 108-95 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
NBA Playoffs Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Bucks -1.5) I'll take my chances with the Bucks as a slim 1.5-point home favorite. Milwaukee 100% stole Game 5. This is a championship team that knows how to close out a series. They also understand how big this game is for them. Last thing they want is to have to go back to Boston for Game 7. With that said, the pressure is really on the Celtics to avoid elimination. Not only that, but you have to wonder how this team is dealing with their collapse in Game 5. Give me the Bucks -1.5! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
|||||||
05-12-22 | Heat v. 76ers -2 | Top | 99-90 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Playoffs MAX UNIT Top Play (76ers -2) I will gladly take my chances with the 76ers as a slim 2-point home favorite in Game 6 against the Heat. This series has been dominated by the home team. The home team has won and covered each of the 5 games up to this point and most of them have been blowouts. The smallest margin of victory so far is 8-points. It's just like the role players and even the stars are just playing at a different level at home compared to on the road. I see no reason to think that trend won't continue in Game 6. No question the 76ers will be the more motivated team facing elimination. Miami could struggle to find that killer instinct coming off a 35-point win and knowing they got Game 7 at home. Give me the 76ers -2! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10 |
|||||||
05-10-22 | 76ers v. Heat -3 | Top | 85-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Heat -3) I will gladly take my chances with Miami as a mere 3-point home favorite in Game 5. Philly got Embiid back in Game 3 at home and were able to feed off his energy in a 99-79 win. In Game 4, the Heat just couldn't buy an outside shot (7 of 35, 20%), while James Harden caught fire. Maybe that was a turning point for Harden. I don't think it was. I have zero faith in him being anything close to that same guy in Game 5. I see a much more focused and energized Miami team on their home floor and you have to wonder if there won't be a little bit of letdown for the 76ers. Philly's backs were firmly against the wall. They lose either of those games at home and this series was all but over. Either way, I just feel the Heat are the better team and this is just too good a price to pass up. Give me Miami -3! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
|||||||
05-08-22 | Heat +2 v. 76ers | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
NBA Playoffs Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Heat +2) I'll gladly take my chances with the Heat as a 2-point road dog in Game 3 of their Eastern Conference Semifinal matchup with the 76ers. Miami really made easy work of Philly in the first two games, winning Game 1 by a score of 106-92 and then Game 2 by a score of 119-103. It felt like this series was all but over with Embiid sidelined, but then he made a surprising return for Game 3. I don't think there's any question it gave Philly a lift, but that was also a do or die situation, as they had to avoid going down 0-3. Having Embiid back is big, but he's far from the MVP candidate we saw dominate the regular season. I still have a lot of the same concerns with the 76ers. Can they get another 21 points from Danny Green? Can Green and Maxey replicate their crazy shooting from outside (combined 12 of 15 from 3-point)? I don't think so. My money is on the Heat to retake their claim on this series and go up 3-1. Give me Miami +2! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
|||||||
05-08-22 | Suns -1.5 v. Mavs | Top | 101-111 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Playoffs Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -1.5) I will gladly take my chances with the Suns as a slim -1.5 road favorite in Game 4 of their Western Conference Semifinal matchup with the Mavs. After dominating the first two games at home to take a 2-0 lead, Dallas responded with a 103-94 win in Game 3. Not a big surprise (I was on the Mavs) given the situation. Suns got a little complacent after those first two games and the Mavs put everything on the line with their backs against the wall. I still think Phoenix is hands down the better team. In Game 3, Chris Paul and Devin Booker only combined for 30 points and had a combined 12 turnovers. Yet the Suns only lost by 9. My money is on the Sun to bounce back with a much better showing this afternoon. Give me Phoenix -1.5! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
|||||||
05-06-22 | Suns v. Mavs | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
NBA Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Mavs PK) I'll take my chances with the Mavs at a pick'em at home in Game 3 against the Suns. Most will just assume Phoenix will keep rolling after watching them win and cover both games on their home floor to start the series. I don't think that will be the case. Dallas has shown they can hang around with this team for a good portion of the game. They just haven't got any help from their role players. It's been all Doncic. I don't think the Suns are going to have an answer for Doncic and with the Mavs being at home for Game 3, I think the role players finally show up and carry this team to a win. Give m Dallas PK! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
|||||||
05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Playoffs Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Celtics -4.5) I will gladly take my chances with Boston laying the 4.5 in Game 2. The Celtics got a big wake-up call in Game 1. I know they aren't taking games off in the playoffs, but you have to wonder if they were as locked in as they should have been after sweeping the Nets in the 1st Round and Milwaukee being without one of their better players in Middleton. It just wasn't a good offensive game-plan for Boston, who jacked up 50+ 3-pointers. Look for them to attack more. I also though the defense played pretty well in the loss and should be even more locked in with this essentially being a must win down 0-1 at home. Give me the Celtics -4.5! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
|||||||
04-28-22 | 76ers v. Raptors +1.5 | 132-97 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
NBA Playoffs No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Raptors +1.5) I will gladly take my chances with the Raptors as a home dog in Game 6. Everyone thought this series was over after Philly went up 3-0, but Toronto has won the last two, including a 103-88 win on the road in Game 5. All the talk right now is about how 76ers head coach Doc Rivers can't close out series. I think that's putting added pressure on Philly, but the even bigger issue here is Embiid is not playing at an MVP level with that injured thumb and Harden just is not the same guy he was just a couple years ago. Raptors have all the momentum and I fully expect this thing to go back to Philly for a Game 7. Give me Toronto +1.5! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
|||||||
04-27-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors -8.5 | 98-102 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
NBA Playoffs No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Warriors -8.5) I'll take my chances with the Warriors as a 8.5-point home favorite in Game 5 against the Nuggets. Not a big shocker that Denver was able to avoid getting swept with a 126-121 win at home in Game 4, but that took a near perfect night from them. Nuggets shot 56.2% from the field, made a series-high from them with 15 3's and also had a series-high 29 made free throws. And yet they still only won the Game by 5. Warriors won by 16 at home in Game 1 and by 20 at home in Game 2. It's just not asking much for Golden State to win here by double-digits. Give me the Warriors -8.5! Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10) |
|||||||
04-26-22 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Suns | 97-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
NBA Playoffs Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Pelicans +6.5) I got no problem taking the Pelicans as a 6.5-point dog in Game 5 on the road against the Suns. I think we have seen enough now that it's safe to say this is a pretty evenly matched series with Phoenix missing Booker. One I wouldn't be surprised at all if New Orleans won. Suns have shot better than 50% in each of the first 4 games, yet are -12 in total points scored in the series. Can they really bank on shooting 50% every game. Either way, the combo of Ingram and McCollum has proven to be deadly and simply put the Suns aren't getting enough out of the other guys. I give New Orleans a real shot here of winning this game outright. Give me the Pelicans +6.5! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
|||||||
04-26-22 | Wolves +6 v. Grizzlies | 109-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
NBA Playoffs Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Wolves +6) I will take my chances with Minnesota as a 6-point road dog in Game 5. Memphis is really lucky the Timberwolves aren't up 3-1 in this series, as they blew that huge lead in Game 3 at home. I just think the Grizzlies were way overvalued coming into the playoffs. Minnesota is every bit as talented as they are and have already proven they can win on the road, taking Game 1 130-117. I not only think the Timberwolves can keep it close enough to cover, I like them to win Game 5 outright. Give me Minnesota +6! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
|||||||
04-25-22 | Raptors +8 v. 76ers | Top | 103-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Raptors +8) I'll take my chances with the Raptors as a 8-point dog against the 76ers in Game 5. I'm actually shocked the line is this high. Toronto may have to go without Fred VanVleet, but they won Game 4 with him playing just 15 minutes and scoring 5 points. With rookie Scottie Barnes back from injury and Gary Trent Jr. back to playing at a high level, Raptors got more than enough fire-power here to not just cover, but win the game outright. Especially with Embiid clearly playing at less than 100%. Give me the Raptors +8 Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
|||||||
04-25-22 | Celtics v. Nets -1 | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER (Nets -1) I'll take my chances with Brooklyn at basically a pick'em at home in Game 4 against the Celtics. This is it for the Nets, who have shockingly fell behind 3-0 in this series. If there's one team that can be the first two overcome a 3-0 deficit, it's a team that's got a duo the likes of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. It's not like Boston has been hands down the better team in this series. Brooklyn could have very easily won al 3 of the games so far in the series. That's with Durant scoring a very mediocre 22.0 ppg on just 38.5% shooting and Irving scoring just 21.7 ppg on 42% shooting. I'm expecting the best game of the series for these two with the season on the line. Give me the Nets -1! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
|||||||
04-24-22 | Suns v. Pelicans +2.5 | 103-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
NBA Playoffs Late Night CASH COW (Pelicans +2.5) I really like the Pelicans as a home dog in Game 4 against the Suns on Sunday Night. I just don't think Phoenix is anything close to the juggernaut we expected coming into the playoffs without Devin Booker. New Orleans could have very easily won Game 3 at home and taken a 2-1 series lead. It took a really good game from Chris Paul and near perfect game of execution (only 5 TOs and shot 50.6% from the field) for Phoenix to win Game 3 by a mere 3-points. I just think the value is 100% with the Pelicans as a home dog in Game 4. Not only have they shown this is an even matchup without Booker, but they will be the more desperate team in this one. Give me the Pelicans +2.5! Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10) |