Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-28-23 | Raptors v. Blazers -4.5 | 123-105 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS SLAUGHTER PLAY ON PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS -4.5: |
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01-28-23 | Lakers +8.5 v. Celtics | Top | 121-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
10* NBA - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON LOS ANGELES LAKERS +8.5: I'll gladly take my chances with the Lakers as a 8.5-point road dog against the Celtics. No question that Boston is the better team, but 8.5 is ridiculous given how well the Lakers have been playing and the fact that they got back Anthony Davis from injury and recently added a quality bench player in Rui Hachimura. He 12 points and 6 boards off the bench in just 22 minutes in his Lakers debut, posting a +17 +/-. They could also be getting back guard Lonnie Walker, who hasn't played since late December. Walker is 4th on the team in scoring (14.7 ppg) and arguably their best 3-point shooter (38.4%). Celtics will be playing without Marcus Smart, who might be the 3rd or 4th best player on their team, but easily the heart and soul of this team. He brings a different level of energy that I think the rest of the guys feed off of. Boston is also a team that has really solidified itself in terms of being an elite team. They don't got much to prove. Lakers are a team trying to save their season. Just too many points for me to pass up. Give me Los Angeles +8.5! |
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01-28-23 | Ohio State +5.5 v. Indiana | 70-86 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE PLAY ON OHIO STATE BUCKEYES +5.5: I will gladly take my chances with the Buckeyes as a slim 5.5-point road favorite against Indiana. I just think this a great spot and price to sell-high on the Hoosiers, who come into this game having won 4 straight. Also a good buy-low spot on Ohio State who has gone just 1-6 over their last 7. Buckeyes recent record may suggest they aren't that good, but it's been a bit of bad luck. During this stretch they have a 2-point loss at home to Purdue, 3-point loss at home to Minnesota, 2-point OT loss at Turgers and 3-point loss at Nebraska. You won't find many 11-9 teams that are ranked inside the Top 10 in the country in offensive efficiency (No. 9). Ohio State also is 27th in effective FG% defense. Indiana hasn't exactly fared well against top tier offenses. They are 9-0 vs teams that rank outside the Top 150. That makes them 5-6 vs teams in the Top 150 and 2-4 vs teams in the Top 50. They are also just 3-5 vs teams in the Top 100 in defensive effective FG%. Just a few too many points for the Hoosiers to be laying. Give me Ohio State +5.5! |
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01-28-23 | Florida v. Kansas State -4.5 | Top | 50-64 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH PLAY ON KANSAS STATE -4.5: I absolutely love the value and price with K-State as a mere 4.5-point home favorite against Florida. Wildcats should be pretty motivated for this one after losing at Iowa State on Tuesday. Just the third time all season K-State has failed to come out with a victory. The other two also coming in true road games. Wildcats are a perfect 10-0 at home. I also think it's a great spot here to sell-high on Florida. Gators come in having won 5 of their last 6, but all 5 wins came against teams ranked outside the Top 50 at KenPom. Florida is 0-7 this season against Top 50 teams. Of those 7 losses, 5 came out of conference, including losses by 9 on a neutral to Oklahoma and by 29 on a neutral to West Virginia, who are both 2-6 in Big 12 play this year (K-State is 6-2). Simply put, the Wildcats should be a much bigger favorite here. Give me K-State -4.5! |
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01-28-23 | Illinois v. Wisconsin +2 | 61-51 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
8* NCAAB Public Money ATS MASSACRE PLAY ON WISCONSIN BADGERS +2: I got no problem backing the Badgers as a 2-point home dog against Illinois. I honestly don't think the Fighting Illini should be favored on the road here. Wisconsin has lost 5 of their last 6, which looks bad, but 4 of those 5 losses were on the road. That includes a 69-79 loss at Illinois, where the Badgers were missing their best player in Tyler Wahl. Illinois appears to have gotten things on track with wins in 5 of their last 6, but I'm not so sure. Outside of their win against a Wahl-less Wisconsin, they beat Mich St and Ohio St at home, while also winning at Minnesota and Nebraska. I just think it has them way overvalued on the road against a team like Wisconsin. Note those are the only two true road wins on Illinois' resume. Their other two Big 10 road games resulted in a 5-point loss at Maryland and a 13 point loss at Northwestern. Simply too much value on the Badgers at home. Give me Wisconsin +2! |
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01-28-23 | Texas Tech -2.5 v. LSU | 76-68 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
8* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT PLAY ON TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS -2.5: I will gladly take my chances with Texas Tech as a slim 2.5-point road favorite against LSU. The Red Raiders couldn't have drawn up a worse start to Big 12 play. After going 10-2 in non-conference play with their only two losses coming to Creighton and Ohio State, Texas Tech sits winless at 0-8 in Big 12 play. I just think it speaks volumes to how good the Big 12 is this year and if you are off just the slightest bit, you are going to lose. It's not like the Red Raiders haven't been competitive. Of their 8 conference losses, 5 have come by 7 or fewer. If they just win 4 of those and are 4-4 in Big 12 play, the narrative on this team is completely different. I just think their record and the 8-game losing streak they bring into this game has them way undervalued against a bad LSU team. Tigers were 11-1 in non-conference play, but played the 347th toughest out of conference slate. They are 1-7 in SEC play and really have been competitive of late. Their last 6 losses have come by at least 11 points. I just think Texas Tech is a much better team from top to bottom. Give me the Red Raiders -2.5! |
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01-26-23 | Iowa v. Michigan State -2.5 | Top | 61-63 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Big Ten PLAY OF THE MONTH PLAY ON MICHIGAN STATE -2.5: I'll take my chances with the Spartans as a mere 2.5-point home favorite against Iowa on Thursday. Iowa is one of several Big Ten teams that I'm looking to back at home and fade on the road. Since Big Ten play resumed in late December, Iowa has gone 3-0 at home and just 1-3 on the road. Two of those road losses weren't close, as they fell by 15 at Nebraska and by 16 last time out at Ohio State. They also trailed by as many as 18 on the road in a 4-point loss at Penn State. One of the biggest reasons I believe Iowa has such big home/away splits, is they aren't a good defensive team and can't rely on their shooting to bail them out on the road. I also think there's value here due to the fact that Michigan State comes in having lost 3 of their last 4. Most recently losing by 13 on the road to Indiana. Nothing shocking about their 1-3 stretch. The other two losses were at Illinois and at home by 1 to Purdue. Their only other home loss besides the defeat to the Boilermakers was a loss to Northwestern back in the first week of December. Simply too good a price and spot to pass up. Give me the Spartans -2.5! |
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01-25-23 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -2.5 | 120-122 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
9* NBA Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE PLAY ON GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS -2.5: I'll take my chances with Golden State as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Grizzlies. It's been an up and down first half of the season for the Warriors, which was to be expected. Golden State doesn't care about regular-season accolades. It's a big part of why they are just 6-18 on the road. They are 17-6 SU and 15-8 ATS at home this year. They are 4-0 ATS at home with a line of +3 to -3 and are 18-5 ATS in this spot over the last 3 years. This team gets up for big games, especially at home. I expect their best with Ja Morant coming to town. Big concern I have with Memphis is the injury to big man Steven Adams, who looks to be sidelined at least a couple weeks. Adams has started 42 of 44 games. He doesn't offer much offensively, but leads the team with 11.5 rpg. Warriors on the other hand are as close to full strength as I can remember. Kevon Looney just returned to action and James Wiseman is expected to return after missing close to a month. The only guy they are missing is veteran reserve Andre Iguodala, who has played in just 3 games. Golden State also has a decent edge here in scheduling. Warriors will be playing on a full 2 days of rest and have not played a back-to-back in over a week. Memphis is playing the 4th of a 5-game road trip and while they were off yesterday, this will be their 3rd road game in 4 days. Give me the Warriors -2.5! |
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01-25-23 | Texas A&M +4.5 v. Auburn | 79-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON TEXAS A&M AGGIES +4.5: Give me the Aggies as a 4.5-point road dog against Auburn. Even after Saturday's 67-76 loss at Kentucky as a 5-point dog, Texas A&M is a team I want to be looking to back right now. Aggies had started out a perfect 5-0 in SEC play prior to the loss to the Wildcats, which included road wins over Florida and South Carolina. This team also won by 16 at DePaul and lost by just 4 at Memphis. They are not going to be intimidated by playing on the road at Auburn. I'm also not so sure the Tigers are as good as their 16-3 record would lead you to believe. Auburn has played 4 Top 100 teams on their home floor and only dominated in one. They won by just 5 over St. Louis, by 3 vs Florida and by 6 against Miss St. I do not like the matchup either for Auburn. I really question where the offense is going to come from for the Tigers. Auburn is one of the worst 3-pt shooting teams in the country, ranking 332nd in 3P%. Aggies will let you shoot 3's. They aren't going to give up anything easy inside. Texas A&M is 18th in the country in 2P% defense. If Auburn struggles like they have from deep all season in this game, they won't just not cover, they will lose outright. Give me Texas A&M +4.5! |
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01-25-23 | Pacers +5.5 v. Magic | 120-126 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
8* NBA Public Money ATS SLAUGHTER PLAY ON INDIANA PACERS +5.5: I nailed the Pacers (+2) in last night's 116-110 win at home against the Bulls. Big reason I liked Indiana in that game, is I fell they were being undervalued due to their 7-game losing streak. Because the losing streak started the same time Tyrese Haliburton got hurt, most just assume that's why they aren't playing well. It's a big loss, but the schedule also played a big role in their struggles. I just think this team is still being undervalued and too much is being made here of them being on no rest. Keep in mind Indiana had 2 days off before their game against Chicago. Simply put, I just feel that 5.5 is too many points to pass up here. The Magic are improved this season and have covered 5 of their last 6. However, all but one of those came as a dog. Not sure I trust this team in the opposite role, especially at this price. Orlando is a mere 4-15 ATS last 3 seasons in home games vs teams with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season. Give me the Pacers +5.5! |
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01-25-23 | Northwestern v. Nebraska +3 | 78-63 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
8* NCAAB - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR PLAY ON NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS +3: I will gladly take my chances with Nebraska as a home dog against the Wildcats. The Cornhuskers are a team that I'm looking to back at home, especially as an underdog. Like a lot of these Big Ten teams, Nebraska is a different animal at home. They are just 10-10 overall, yet come in with a 7-2 record at home. One of those losses coming in OT vs Purdue. So while Northwestern has the much better record at 13-5 (4-3 in Big Ten play), I'm not so sure they should be favored in this game. Wildcats could have quite the hole at shooting guard in this game. Their top two options at the position, Ty Berry and Julian Roper, are both listed as questionable with ankle injuries suffered in Monday's win over Wisconsin. I got a hard time believing either plays given they have had just 1 day off. It really makes it tough for Northwestern to take Boo Buie or Chase Audige off the floor and both of those guys played a ton of minutes in the win over the Badgers. I just don't think the Wildcats will have the legs or depth to compete at a high level on the road tonight. Give me the Cornhuskers +3! |
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01-24-23 | Wizards +7.5 v. Mavs | Top | 127-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
10* NBA Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON WASHINGTON WIZARDS +7.5: I love the Wizards as a 7.5-point road dog against the Mavs on Tuesday. This is a Washington team that I'm looking to back right now and no way I'm passing up on them at this price. Wizards are as healthy as they have been all season and it's shown in their recent performances. Washington went on the road and beat the Knicks 116-105 on Wednesday and then crushed the Magic 138-118 at home on Saturday. They are very well rested team, playing just their 3rd game in the last 7 days. This will be the Mavs 4th game in the last 7 days and they have not been playing well. Dallas is just 2-6 SU in their last 8. They are a mere 3-9 ATS in their last 12. Doncic is incredible, but they really miss Christian Wood, who is out with a thumb injury. Keep in mind they also are playing right now without Maxi Kleber, who would be the guy that normally would be asked to pick up the slack with Wood out. Just too many points for Dallas to be laying in this spot. Give me the Wizards +7.5! |
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01-24-23 | Bulls v. Pacers +2 | 110-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
8* NBA Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE PLAY ON INDIANA PACERS +2: Easy play for me on the Pacers as a small 2-point home dog against the Bulls. Indiana has really fallen off of late. Pacers come in having lost 7 straight. A losing streak that has coincided with the loss of point guard Tyrese Haliburton. Not having him in the lineup is a big deal, but the schedule has also played a big role in their recent struggles. Mavs just finished up a 4-game road rip that saw them play the Bucks, Thunder, Nuggets and Suns. The previous two were home games against the Hawks and Grizzlies. I just think it has them way undervalued here at home against a Bulls team that is in a really bad spot. Chicago played a game in Paris last Thursday. They got just 3-days off to deal with the jet lag before last night's game against the Hawks. I think it's going to be really tough for them to bounce back with a big effort here in the second of a back-to-back. Give me the Pacers +2! |
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01-24-23 | Ohio State v. Illinois -3.5 | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT PLAY ON ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI -3.5: I'll gladly take my chances with the Fighting Illini as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against Ohio State. Really an easy play for me on Illinois after that embarrassing 65-80 loss at home to Indiana last time out. It was just an all-around bad showing and this team has had performances like that. The key to me is they have showed the ability to bounce back. Let's also not ignore the fact that in the loss to the Hoosiers, they had no answer for Indiana star big man Trayce Jackson-Davis. He had 35 points on 15 of 19 shooting. Ohio State doesn't have a guy like that inside. In fact, there's a good chance they are going to have play this game without one of their better big guys in Zed Key, who injured his knee in their last game against Iowa and is listed as questionable. Either way, I like Illinois to roll in this one. Give me the Fighting Illini -3.5! |
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01-22-23 | Thunder +6.5 v. Nuggets | 101-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
8* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER PLAY ON OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER +6.5: I will gladly take the 6.5 with Oklahoma City as they go to Denver to take on the Nuggets. Denver comes into this game off an impressive 134-111 blowout win over the Pacers to extend their winning streak to 9. I just feel it has them overvalued here in this one. Denver could be down two of their best players, as Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic are both questionable. Backup point guard Bones Hyland is also questionable. As for the Thunder, they come in off a 113-118 loss at the Kings. OKC is still a strong 7-2 SU in their last 9 games and are a perfect 9-0 ATS during this run. I just don't think the public has caught on to how talented this Thunder team is and until they do, there's going to be value on them. Give me the Thunder +6.5! |
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01-22-23 | Michigan State v. Indiana -4 | Top | 69-82 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON INDIANA HOOSIERS -4: I will gladly lay the 4-points with Indiana at home against Michigan State. The Hoosiers come into this game off impressive back-to-back wins. First it was a 63-45 win at home over Wisconsin. Then it was a shocking 80-65 win at Illinois against an Illini team that had been rolling. Indiana is 9-1 at home this season with the lone loss coming by just 1-point to Northwestern. Michigan State snapped a two game skid with a 70-57 win at home over Rutgers in their last game, but have lost 2 of their last 3. Spartans are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games vs good defensive teams that are allowing 42% or worse from the field 15+ games into the season. Hoosiers are 24-10 ATS last 34 at home after 2 straight wins by 15+ points. Give me Indiana -4! |
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01-21-23 | 76ers v. Kings +2 | 129-127 | Push | 0 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
9* NBA Late Night ATS SLAUGHTER PLAY ON SACRAMENTO KINGS +2: I don't think the Kings should be getting points at home against the 76ers. The lack of respect this Sacramento team gets is surprising. Everyone I think is aware that they are much improved, but no one is talking about them as a team that could win the Western Conference. Despite the fact that they sit 3rd in the West standings with a 26-18 record and come into this game having won 6 in a row. The big reason they aren't getting a ton of love from the books in this game is they will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. I just don't think it's a big enough of a factor that they should be a dog at home. It would be one thing if they were playing a bottom feeder or middle of the pack team. Philly is tied for the 2nd best record in the East at 29-16. Kings will be ready to go. It's also just the 3rd game overall in the last 6 days. Philly is the team that could be sleepwalking in this one, as they will be playing their 5th and final game on a 5-game road trip. Give me the Kings +2! |
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01-21-23 | Magic +7.5 v. Wizards | 118-138 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
8* NBA Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE PLAY ORLANDO MAGIC +7.5: I will gladly take 7.5 with the Magic against the Wizards. This line feels a bit inflated due to the fact that Orlando will be playing in the 2nd of a back-to-back. Thing is, Orlando had a whopping 4-days off before last night's game against the Pelicans. The quick turnaround shouldn't be a big deal for them in this game. Washington is as healthy as they have been all season, but even at full strength this team would be lucky to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. I also got to wonder just how excited are they about facing the Magic. Orlando doesn't exactly get the juices flowing. The other big thing is that Orlando comes in playing well. While they are just 4-4 in their last 8 games, they are 6-2 ATS during this run, with three outright wins as a dog. The Magic are not a pushover any more. I really like them to stay within this number and would not be shocked if they won this game outright. Give me the Magic +7.5! |
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01-21-23 | Virginia Tech +1.5 v. Clemson | Top | 50-51 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER PLAY VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES +1.5: Love me Virginia Tech as a short road dog against Clemson. No better time to buy-low on the Hokies, who come into this game having lost 6 straight. They did lose by 10 in each of their last two games against Syracuse and Virginia, but the previous 4 losses were by 5 or fewer points. It's do or die for Virginia Tech at 1-6 in ACC play and this team has a lot of the same feels of the team from last year that started slow and caught fire. I also think you got to look at the health situation for these two teams. Hokies just got healthier with the return of Hunter Cattoor, while Clemson could be down starting point guard Chase Hunter (questionable) and shooting guard Alex Hemenway (out). I also just don't think the Tigers are as good as their 15-4 record would lead you to believe. Lot of things have went their way early on that I don't see being sustained. Give me the Hokies +1.5! |
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01-21-23 | TCU +7.5 v. Kansas | 83-60 | Win | 100 | 1 h 19 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Underdog ATS ANNIHILATOR PLAY TCU Horned Frogs +7.5: This to me is just too many points to pass up with TCU, as this just feels like some unwarranted inflation on Kansas because they are playing at home. There's not the talent gap on the floor that this line would suggest. Both of these teams like to attack in transition, which would lead you to believe this game is going to be played in the open court. Most times that would favor KU, but Mike Miles Jr and this TCU team thrive in this type of game. I don't see a whole lot of separation on the scoreboard late in this one. I really think TCU has a legit shot here to pull off the upset. Give me the Horned Frogs +7.5! |
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01-20-23 | Heat -1 v. Mavs | Top | 90-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Miami Heat -1 I'll take my chances with the Heat as a slim 1-point road favorite against the Mavs on Friday. Miami is starting to look more and more like the team we expected to see to start the season. Heat have won 4 of their last 5 and 10 of their last 16 to improve to 25-21. They were just a 3.5-point road favorite against a short-handed Pelicans team and won the game 124-98. Now they get a Mavs team that has been struggling of late. Dallas has lost 3 straight and 5 of their last 6. They are also just 2-8 ATS over their last 10 games. Mavs will have to try and get back on track without one of their best players in Christian Wood, who is second on the team in scoring (18.4 ppg) and rebounding (8.4 rpg). It's not just his offense and rebounding, Wood leads the team and T-12th in the league with 1.3 blocks/game. Not exactly what Dallas needed, given how they have struggled on the defensive side of the ball. Don't be surprised if Luka puts up some crazy numbers in this one. He's going to have to shoulder a heavy load just for the Mavs to keep this respectable. In the end, I don't see them doing enough to get a win at home against Miami. Give me the Heat -1! |
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01-19-23 | Warriors v. Celtics -5.5 | 118-121 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Boston Celtics -5.5 I'll take my chances with the Celtics as a 5.5-point home favorite against the Warriors. This will be the first game of a double-header on TNT and I think Boston will be out to send a message in this game. The Celtics have to be chomping at the bit for this matchup. After losing to the Warriors in the NBA Finals last year, Boston went to Golden State and got it handed to them in a 107-123 loss. This is their last chance to face the Warriors this season. I just don't think the Warriors at their current state or going to be able to keep this close. Golden State just got Curry back from a lengthy absence are ravished inside right now. Their 3 backup big men to Kevon Looney are all out (JaMychal Green, Jonathan Kuminga and James Wiseman). Keep in mind Looney isn't a guy that give you a ton of minutes. He only averages 23.4 minutes/game. Unless Draymond plays the whole game, there is going to be stretches where they have to go extremely small. There's a chance Curry and Thompson can go off and it won't matter who is on the floor, but I just don't think that's likely against this Celtics team. Boston is rolling into this matchup. Celtics have won 7 straight and 5 of those have come by double-digits. Warriors did win last time out at Washington, but had gone just 1-4 in their previous 5 games with the only win coming against the Spurs. Jaylen Brown is showing up on the injury report, but I feel good about him playing. He was back at practice and when he got hurt in their Jan. 11th game, they believed he would only miss a week. This is the first game since we hit the week mark. Give me the Celtics -5.5! |
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01-19-23 | Michigan v. Maryland -2.5 | 58-64 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER: Maryland Terrapins -2.5 I'll take my chances with the Terps as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Wolverines. It's been a rough go for Maryland of late. After starting 8-0 they have gone just 3-6 over their last 9 games and are just 2-4 in Big Ten play. The losses have not been pretty of late. Each of their last 4 defeats have come by at least 14 points. One of those an embarrassing 46-81 loss at Michigan. One thing you have to note with Maryland's poor play of late, is the schedule. During this 3-6 stretch, only 1 of those 6 losses came at home and that was to a very good UCLA team. Michigan is not even close to being on the same level as the Bruins. Wolverines come in off a big win at home over Northwestern, but are just 1-5 in their last 6 games away from home with the only win coming against a bad Minnesota team. It's just not easy winning on the road in the Big Ten and we can all but guarantee we get a max effort here from Maryland. Give me the Terps -2.5! |
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01-19-23 | Rutgers v. Michigan State -2.5 | Top | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Michigan State Spartans -2.5 I will gladly take my chances with the Spartans as a mere 2.5-point home favorite against Rutgers. It's just so hard to win on the road in Big Ten play and while Rutgers has a win at Purdue, they are just 2-3 in true road games with the other win by just 3-points at Northwestern. Simply put, I think Rutgers is getting way too much respect on the road. It would be one thing if Michigan State came into this game on some long winning streak and might not give this game their full attention off a tough loss to Purdue. I don't think that will be an issue. Spartans will be extremely motivated to snap a 2-game losing streak. I just don't see a bad Rutgers offense playing on the road, scoring enough to have a legit shot to win this game late. Give me Michigan State -2.5! |
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01-18-23 | Arkansas v. Missouri -1.5 | Top | 76-79 | Win | 100 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
10* NCAAB SEC PLAY OF THE MONTH: Missouri Tigers -1.5 I love Missouri as a slim 1.5-point home favorite against Arkansas. The hype around this Tigers team has taken a significant hit the last couple weeks. After securing impressive double-digit wins in back-to-back games against Illinois and Kentucky, Missouri has lost 3 of their last 4 with the only win being a mere 3-point victory at home vs Vanderbilt. They also weren't exactly competitive in the last two on the road vs Texas A&M (64-82) and Florida (64-73). Tigers have had a full 3 days off since the loss to the Gators and I got to think they are chomping at the bit to play this game. Missouri is 10-0 on their home floor and have one of the better home court advantages not just in the SEC but the country. I think it's disrespectful that they are basically a pick'em at home in this game. A big reason for that is this Arkansas team has been in the spotlight early on this season. Razorbacks went into their SEC opener 11-1 and ranked No. 9 in the country. One thing to note about their fast start, they didn't secure a single win over a Top 25 team (based on KenPom's current rankings). Their best win a 78-74 OT win over San Diego St. on a neutral site. Arkansas also didn't play a single true road game before conference play. So far they have played 3 road games in the SEC and lost all 3, the last two coming by 13 at Vandy and by 13 at Auburn. Give me Missouri -1.5! |
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01-18-23 | Pacers v. Thunder -4 | 106-126 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show | |
8* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Oklahoma City Thunder -4 I got no problem laying the 4-points at home with Oklahoma City against the Pacers. Indiana really had something going there in late December and early January. Pacers at one point had won 8 of 10. They have lost 4 straight since and the biggest reason for that is the absence of point guard Tyrese Haliburton. He's the one guy this team couldn't afford to lose. I just think it's asking a lot for the Pacers to keep this one close without Haliburton against a scorching hot Thunder team. OKC appears to have thrown the tank option out the window. Thunder have won 5 of their last 6 with wins over the Mavs, 76ers, Bulls and Nets (last 3 on the road). They didn't just beat those teams, they dominated those games. OKC beat the Mavs 120-109, 76ers 133-114, Bulls 124-110 and the Nets 112-102. Thunder are operating at an extremely high level offensive during this run. That offense will be up against a bad Indiana defense. One that comes in giving up 117.8 ppg in road games this season. Pacers just don't have the offensive firepower to keep it close. Give me the Thunder -4! |
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01-18-23 | Wizards +6.5 v. Knicks | 116-105 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Washington Wizards +6.5 I will gladly take my chances with the Wizards as a 6.5-point road dog against the Knicks. Couple of things I like here. One, I think Washington is going to welcome back their best player, Bradley Beal, to the lineup. Beal has been upgraded to questionable and was reportedly practicing on Sunday. He's been out since Jan. 3 and two weeks is about what it takes for a mild hamstring strain to heal. If Beal returns, this is as healthy the Wizards have been all season and this is a team that is much more talented than it's 18-26 record would suggest. As for the Knicks, I just think they are being overpriced right now. New York has won 7 of their last 9 games, but most of those wins have come against either the bottom tier of the league or teams missing key players. One of those was a mere 4-point win at Washington last week. Wizards had a chance to win that game, despite shooting just 38.7% from the field. Beal gives the offense a massive boost. I like the Wizards to keep this closer than the number and maybe even win outright. Give me Washington +6.5! |
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01-18-23 | Hawks v. Mavs -3.5 | Top | 130-122 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 47 m | Show |
10* NBA Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH: Dallas Mavericks -3.5 I'll take my chances on the Mavs as a slim 3.5-point home favorite against the Hawks. I think it's time to buy-low on Dallas right now. Mavs just lost back-to-back games to a struggling Blazers team and are just 1-4 SU over their last 5. They have also gone just 2-7 ATS over their previous 9. I also think it's a good time to sell-high on the Hawks. Atlanta has won 3 straight, most recently beating a hot Heat team 121-113 as a mere 1-point favorite. It all adds up to a very cheap price to back Dallas, especially given the circumstances. Mavs are going to be fresh, as they have been off since Sunday. Star Luka Doncic will be on 3-days rest, as he sat out the second of a back-to-back (He's listed as questionable, but expected to play). Any injury concerns with Christian Wood were put to rest with him returning to play on Sunday after sitting Saturday. Tim Hardaway Jr. will miss this game, but there's a chance Dallas gets back Dorian Finney-Smith and Josh Green. Finney-Smith has started 31 games, while Green has flashed potential off the bench. Hawks will be on just 1 day of rest after playing Monday. Atlanta's got to be sick and tired of traveling. Outside of playing two straight games in LA vs the Lakers and Clippers, Hawks haven't played back to back games on the same floor since a short two game homestand in late Dec. This is also a Hawks team that is just 10-13 on the road, getting outscored by 2.4 ppg. Mavs are 16-6 at home, outscoring opponents by 5.4 ppg. Dallas is 17-7 ATS last 24 as a home favorite of 6 or less. Hawks are 4-13 ATS last 17 off a cover, 14-27 last 41 as a road dog and 2-11 ATS last 13 on the road after leading in their previous game by 15+ points at the half. Give me the Mavs -3.5! |
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01-18-23 | Florida v. Texas A&M -3.5 | 52-54 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Texas A&M Aggies -3.5 Easy play for me on the Aggies as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against Florida. Texas A&M is playing some of their best basketball of the season coming into this game. Aggies have won 6 straight. A winning streak that stems back to an ugly 62-67 home loss to Wofford in late December. It seems like that poor showing has lit a fire under this team. Texas A&M has started out 4-0 in SEC play. They got it started with a 66-63 win at Florida. They then crushed LSU 69-56 and Missouri 82-64 at home, before going on the road an annihilating South Carolina 94-53. Some of the value here stems from the Gators coming in on their own 3-game win streak. Florida was very impressive last week, beating LSU 67-56 on the road and Missouri 73-64 at home. No question this Florida team is better than their 10-7 record would lead you to believe. With that said, they are getting way too much respect on the road in this one. Texas A&M has a strong homecourt edge, especially when the fans have a team they believe in. The only home loss this season is that shocking defeat to Wofford. I also look at the first meeting between these two teams. Aggies had a double-digit lead in the 2nd half of that game, shot just 2 for 16 from behind the 3-point line, dominated the offensive boards and forced 20 turnovers. Gators were lucky to only lose by 3. I think it will be tough for Florida to keep this within single-digits. Give me Texas A&M -3.5! |
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01-18-23 | Connecticut -4.5 v. Seton Hall | 66-67 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 10 m | Show | |
8* NCAAB Sharp Money PLAY OF THE DAY: UConn -4.5 I'll take my chances with UConn laying just 4.5 on the road against Seton Hall. This has all the making of a get right game for the Huskies, who have lost 4 of 5 after their perfect 14-0 start to the season. The first 3 losses were to good teams (Xavier, Providence and Marquette) on the road. The most recent was an ugly 74-85 loss at home to St. John's. Dan Hurley should have his guys 100% locked in for this showdown with the Pirates. Seton Hall comes in having won 3 straight, but it's came against the 3 worst teams in the Big East in Butler, DePaul and Georgetown. Pirates were 1-4 in conference play before the win streak. For me this really comes down to the fact that I don't think the Pirates can score enough to keep this game close. Seton Hall is 229th in the country in effective FG% and are 303rd in TO%. UConn is 11th in defensive efficiency, 12th in defensive effective FG% and 56th in TO%. Huskies make you earn it on defense. They are elite at defending the 3-point shot. They do foul a lot and give up a bunch of free throws. Seton Hall does a good job at drawing fouls, but shoot just 67.1% from the line. Seton Hall's defense isn't bad, but they are up against a very good UConn offense that ranks 14th in the country in offensive efficiency and 42nd in effective FG%. They are also 25th in Off. Reb.%. Pirates are 231st in the rate in which they give up offensive rebounds. I expect a comfortable win for UConn in this one. Give me the Huskies -4.5! |
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01-17-23 | Blazers +7 v. Nuggets | 113-122 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Portland Trail Blazers +7 I'll take my chances with the Blazers catching 7-points on the road against the Nuggets. Portland comes into this game off back-to-back home wins over the Mavs. First time since mid December they were able to string together consecutive wins. I believe it's a sign of the Blazers finally getting back to full strength. The only guy out right now is Justice Winslow. Portland beat the Nuggets 135-110 at home in the first meeting this season before losing by 1 at home in the rematch 120-121 and then 107-120 at Denver in the 3rd meeting. I think it's worth noting that the Blazers were only a 4.5-point dog in the previous game at Denver. Since that game the Blazers have gotten back a huge bench piece in Gary Payton II. I think he can be a difference maker for this team and he doesn't have to score to impact the game in a big way. Nuggets come into this game having shots light out of late, hitting 50% or better from the field in each of their last 3 games. Historically this has been a good sign that some regression is coming, as Denver is just 1-9 ATS over the last 2 seasons after 3 straight games shooting 50% or better from the field. Give me the Blazers +7! |
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01-17-23 | Baylor v. Texas Tech -2 | 81-74 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
8* NCAAB Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Texas Tech Red Raiders -2 I'll take my chances with Texas Tech laying a mere 2-points at home against Baylor. This line isn't going to make a ton of sense. The Bears come into this game off back-to-back wins are ranked No. 21 in the country. Red Raiders have went from a Top 25 team to a team firmly on the bubble in early January, as they come in having lost 5 straight to open up Big 12 play. Losing streaks like this can happen in a conference like the Big 12, even for good teams. The schedule wasn't exactly kind to them during this stretch. Of the 5 games, 3 were on the road and one of the home games was against Kansas. They lost the other home game vs Oklahoma in OT. They also lost by just 3-points at home to the Jayhawks and last time out they lost by just 2 at home to Texas. We should be able to bank on an extremely motivated Texas Tech team taking the floor on Tuesday. You also have to factor in one of the best homecourt edges in the country (KenPom has the No. 1 in home court advantage). I also look at Baylor and just think they are down a notch from what they have been in previous years. Bears are just 2-3 in Big 12 play and their wins are against W Virginia and Oklahoma State. We saw Baylor lose by 15 in a true road game at Iowa State. They also lost by 26 at Marquette in non-conference play. Give me Texas Tech -2! |
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01-17-23 | Texas v. Iowa State -2 | Top | 67-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Big 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH: Iowa State Cyclones -2 I love the Cyclones as a mere 2-point home favorite against Texas on Tuesday. This isn't just another game on the schedule for Iowa State. The Cyclones have had this one circled for a while. Not just cause they hate Texas, but that hatred got a lot stronger when the Longhorns landed stud ISU transfer point guard Tyrese Hunter. Cyclones have been a big surprise so far this season. Not many expected them to be this good, but Saturday's mere 2-point loss at Kansas was further proof that this team is for real. ISU's only other losses are to UConn and a road game at in-state rival Iowa. Cyclones are a perfect 9-0 at home and have dominated at home in Big 12 play, beating Baylor 77-62 and Texas Tech 84-50. Texas is a very talented team and gotten off to a 15-2 record with a 4-1 mark in Big 12 play, but the loss of head coach Chris Beard is a big one. Longhorns have also been very fortunate in close games in Big 12 play. They could just as easily be 1-4 in league play, as they have a 1-point win at Oklahoma, 4-point win at home vs TCU and a 2-point win at home vs Texas Tech. I just don't think Iowa State is getting near enough respect. Give me the Cyclones -2! |
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01-16-23 | Purdue v. Michigan State +4 | 64-63 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Michigan State +4 I'll take my chances with the Spartans as 4-point home dog against the Boilermakers in Monday's Big Ten play. Michigan State comes into this one off a 9-point loss at Illinois on Friday. It wasn't as bad a showing as the final score would indicate. If anything the Spartans gave that game away, as they led 50-41 with just under 14 minutes to play. Prior to that loss Michigan State had won 7 straight overall and 4 in a row in Big 10 play. Purdue is a great team and most just assume they are in a class of their own in the Big Ten hierarchy. I just don't think people realize how tough it is to win on the road in this conference. Purdue played just 3 true road games this season. They are 3-0 in those games, but they only won by 10 at Florida State, needed OT to win at Nebraska and most recently snuck out a 2-point win at Ohio State. I like the Spartans to win this game outright but I'll gladly take the points as insurance. Give me Michigan State +4! |
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01-15-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Nets | 112-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Oklahoma City Thunder +5.5 I'll take my chances with OKC catching 5.5 on the road against the Nets. I'll definitely be looking to fade Brooklyn as much as I can with Kevin Durant out. I don't think enough is being made of how big a loss this is. Everyone knows how good Durant is, I just don't think people realize how well he was playing. Not a lot is going to be made of them losing at home to the Celtics without Durant, which is certainly playing into the favorable number in this matchup. Oklahoma City comes into this game playing some of their best basketball of the season. The Thunder are 4-1 over their last 5 games with the only loss being by 1-point at Miami, where they gave the game away late. They have a 120-109 win at home over the Mavs, 133-114 win at the 76ers and a 124-110 win at Chicago playing on no rest in this 5-game stretch. Their offense has been outstanding during this run, scoring an average of 123.0 ppg on 50.1% shooting. It's not just all offense. Their defense is only giving up 43.8% shooting during this stretch. I like them to win this game outright, but I'll take the points as an added insurance. Give me the Thunder +5.5! |
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01-15-23 | Maryland v. Iowa -5 | 67-81 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Iowa Hawkeyes -5 I'll take my chances with the Hawkeyes as a 5-point home favorite against Maryland on the college hardwood Sunday. After starting 0-3 in Big Ten play, Iowa has responded with 3 straight wins to pull even at 3-3. Most recently pulling off an improbable 93-84 OT win at home over Michigan in a game that they trailed 70-77 with 2 minutes to play. Iowa continues to be without starting forward Patrick McCaffrey, but his loss is not as big a deal as some make it out to be. It's really opened the door for sophomore Payton Sandfort to take on a bigger role. In the 3 games McCaffrey has missed, Sandfort is averaging 19.7 ppg and if you go back over the last 5 games that Sandfort has played at least 22 minutes, he's averaging 20.2 ppg. Iowa is also a different team at home than they are on the road. Hawkeyes are 8-2 at home this year with both losses coming in games where their best player, Kris Murray, wasn't on the floor. Maryland is just 1-3 in true road games with the only win coming against an awful Louisville team back in late November. In their last two road games they lost by 14 at Rutgers and by 35 at Michigan. Give me Iowa -5! |
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01-14-23 | Mavs v. Blazers -1.5 | 119-136 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Portland Trail Blazers -1.5 I'll take my chances with the Trail Blazers as a small 1.5-point home favorite against the Mavs. I just think this is the perfect spot to jump on a Portland team that is desperately trying to get back in the win column. Blazers couldn't be catching the Mavs in a better spot. Dallas has to be running on fumes right now. They are playing the 4th game of a 5-game road trip and just two days removed from Thursday's exhausting 119-115 2OT win over the Lakers. I could see some guys sitting for Dallas, most notably Christian Wood, who is listed as questionable. Wood hurt his ankle late vs LA. He was able to come back, but those ankle injuries have a way of getting worse the next day. This is also the front end of a back-to-back, which I think it makes it that much more unlikely he plays. Too much value with the Blazers at this price. Give me Portland -1.5! |
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01-14-23 | Iowa State v. Kansas -7 | 60-62 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Kansas Jayhawks -7 I'll take my chances with Kansas as a 7-point home favorite against Iowa State. I think most would look at this game and be drawn to back Iowa State and grab the points. Cyclones are 13-2, have won 6 straight, are 4-0 in Big 12 Play and fresh off a 34-point (84-50) beatdown of Texas Tech at home on Tuesday. Thing with Iowa State is they rely so much defensively on creating turnovers. I don't think they are going to disrupt the offensive flow of this Jayhawks team. Kansas is one of the best in the country at moving the ball, as they rank 20th in assists/FG made. If you can break the pressure of ISU, there defense tends to give up a lot of wide open 3's. Some of that is them being okay with letting teams shoot from deep. They are 355th on defense in opponents 3PT FG attempts per FG attempt. I don't think that's going to work on the road vs this Kansas team. Jayhawks are 23rd in the country in 3PT% shooting. If Kansas shoots to their ability, I don't see the Cyclones being able to keep pace offensively. Give me Kansas -7! |
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01-14-23 | Providence +7 v. Creighton | 67-73 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Providence Friars +7 I'll take my chances with the Friars catching 7-points on the road against Creighton Saturday. Providence is being way undervalued in this one. Friars come into this game having won 9 straight. They have wins over both Marquette and UConn during this run. Creighton is going in the opposite direction. Bluejays have lost their last two games and are just 3-8 since starting the season 6-0. So while Creighton is a tough team to beat on the road, I just feel that's being baked into this number way too much. I think it's going to take everything the Bluejays have just to win this game outright. It's not a good matchup for them. They are a team that likes to shoot a lot of 3's. Friars don't let teams get going from the outside. They rank 28th in opponents % of field goal attempts coming from behind the 3-point line. Providence also makes teams work for a good shot. They are 27th in opponents assists/FG made. Give me the Friars +7! |
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01-13-23 | Rockets +9.5 v. Kings | 114-139 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Houston Rockets +9.5 I'll take my chances with the Rockets catching 9.5-points on the road against the Kings Friday. This will be a rematch as these just played each other in Sacramento on Wednesday. The Kings would win that game 135-115 and cover as a 9.5-point favorite. Most will just assume looking at the final score that it was a blowout the whole way, but that wasn't the case at all. Houston actually had the lead entering the 4th quarter, but were then outscored 41-20 in the final period. Collapsing like they did should have the Rockets motivated for the rematch. I'm not so sure Sacramento will have as easy a time getting up for this game. It's not easy to blowout any team in the NBA in consecutive games. I like the Rockets to hang around and possibly even win this game outright. Give me Houston +9.5! |
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01-13-23 | Thunder v. Bulls -4.5 | Top | 124-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Chicago Bulls -4 I'll take my chances with the Bulls as a 4-point home favorite against the Thunder. I like this spot for Chicago, who I feel will be extra motivated to get a win here after losing their last two games. This is a team that was really playing well before this latest hiccup. Chicago is still 8-5 SU and 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 games. Yes, the Bulls figure to be without Demar DeRozan, but this is a really bad scheduling spot for OKC. Thunder were in action last night at Philly, a game they shockingly won 133-114 as a 10.5-point underdog. Not easy bouncing back this late in the season on no rest, especially on the road. This will be the Thunder's 3rd road game in 4 nights, which only makes this spot that much worse. Who knows if OKC even plays all their guys on the 2nd of a back-to-back. Either way the price is too good to pass up with Chicago. Give me the Bulls -4! |
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01-13-23 | Nebraska +15.5 v. Purdue | 55-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Nebraska Cornhuskers +15.5 I'll take my chances with Nebraska catching 15.5-points on the road against No. 3 ranked Purdue. The Cornhuskers aren't exactly a team that I want to back a lot on the road in Big Ten play, but this is just way too many points. Some of that value with Nebraska stems from their last game, which they got destroyed 76-50 at home by Illinois. They have also lost by 18 at Michigan State and by 16 at Indiana in their two true road games in conference play. I just think it's going to be hard for Purdue to get excited about playing this game, as they have to feel like they just need to show up to win this game. Nebraska isn't just coming into this game thinking they can keep it close. They took the Boilermakers to OT in a 62-65 loss at home back on Dec. 10th. With that said, I think Purdue would have to play pretty bad for Nebraska to win, but we saw the upset happen in a similar spot last night with Minnesota going on the road and beating Ohio State 70-67 as a 14.5-point dog. Give me the Cornhuskers +15.5! |
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01-12-23 | Mavs v. Lakers +3.5 | 119-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
9* NBA - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Lakers +3.5 I'll take my chances with the Lakers as a 3.5-point home dog against the Mavs on Thursday. Th market has been way off on both of these teams of late. Los Angeles is 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games. Dallas has lost 3 of their last 4 and are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. Lakers are also in the much better scheduling spot, as they come in on a full 2 days of rest and will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. Mavs are playing on just 1-day of rest, playing their 3rd straight game on the road and their 4th game in the last 6 days. Give me the Lakers +3.5! |
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01-12-23 | Michigan v. Iowa -5.5 | Top | 84-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Iowa Hawkeyes -5.5 I'll gladly take my chances with Iowa as a 5.5-point home favorite against the Wolverines on Thursday. After losing 3 straight and falling to 0-3 in Big Ten play, the Hawkeyes have won two straight. First they knocked off Indiana at home before going on the road and securing an impressive 76-65 road win over Rutgers. Iowa is a very tough team to beat on their home floor. They are 7-2 at home this season with both losses coming during a stretch when their best player, Kris Murray, was sidelined with an injury. I don't see Michigan being able to keep pace offensively on the road against this Iowa team with Murray in the lineup. Michigan is coming off a 53-59 road loss to in-state rival Michigan State and were lucky to only lose by 6. They trailed by 14 with just over 8 minutes to play and had just 28 points over the first 30+ minutes of that game. Give me the Hawkeyes -5.5! |
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01-11-23 | Pelicans +9.5 v. Celtics | 114-125 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Pelicans +9.5 I'll take my chances with the Pelicans as a 9.5-point road dog against the Celtics. I just think Boston is getting way too much respect in this spot. At the same time, I think New Orleans is being way undervalued right now due to the fact that both Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram are out with injuries. People don't realize just how deep and talented this Pelicans team is. Boston is also playing shorthanded without one of their most important pieces in Marcus Smart. They also could be missing big man Robert Williams in this one. The books have really started to inflate the number on this team and as a result they are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. I know it's not as big a game with Durant now sidelined, but I got to think the Celtics will have a hard time not looking ahead to tomorrow's game in Brooklyn. Boston is just 1.5-games up on the Nets for the No. 1 seed in the East and Kyrie isn't exactly a fan favorite with this organization. I just think it all adds up to New Orleans keeping this within the number. Give me the Pelicans +9.5! |
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01-11-23 | Pacers +4.5 v. Knicks | 113-119 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
8* NBA - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Indiana Pacers +4.5 I'll gladly take my chances with the Pacers as a 4.5-point road dog against the Knicks. I'm going to keep riding this Indiana team until they show signs of slowing down. Pacers come into this game having won 8 of their last 10 and are 8-1-1 ATS during this stretch. Tyrese Haliburton seems to have taken a big step forward and Indiana hit big on rookie shooting guard Benedict Mathurin. Fellow rookie, Andrew Nembhard has also played really well. This is a much more talented and deep team than people realize. Knicks are a team I just don't have a ton of faith in. They aren't great and they aren't bad, but often will be overpriced when they are doing well because of the market they play in. New York comes in having won 4 of their last 5 and in the lone loss they lost by just 4 to the Bucks. Thing is, two of those wins were against the Rockets and Spurs. Another was against a depleted Suns team at home. The one decent win was at Toronto and the Raptors are 4-11 SU over their last 15 games. Give me the Pacers +4.5! |
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01-10-23 | Oklahoma State +5.5 v. Kansas State | 57-65 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Oklahoma State Cowboys +5.5 I'll take the 5.5 points with Oklahoma State as they head to Manhattan Tuesday night to face off against Kansas State. I just think this is the perfect time to sell-high on the Wildcats. K-State comes into this game 14-1 and on a 8-game winning streak. I just have to wonder how much gas they have left in the tank. Wildcats opened up Big Ten play on New Year's Eve with a 82-76 OT win at home against West Virginia. Two days later they played that crazy shootout in a 116-103 win at Texas. This past Saturday they played another OT game at home against Baylor, sneaking out a 97-95 win. Oklahoma State is 9-6 but have played the 24th toughest schedule to date. They are just 1-2 in Big 12 play with a 2-point loss at Kansas and a 10-point loss at home to Texas. Note that they were tied 44-44 with under 7 minutes to play against the Longhorns and were outscored from their on 12-2. The only other loss by more than 5-points was a true road game against a very good UConn team. Simply too much value here to pass up. Give me Oklahoma State +5.5! |
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01-08-23 | Hawks v. Clippers -3.5 | 112-108 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
9* NBA Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Los Angeles Clippers -3.5 I'll take my chances with the Clippers as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against the Hawks. I just think this is the perfect time to buy-low on Los Angeles. Clippers come into this game having lost 5 straight. They had that awful showing in Thursday's 91-122 loss to the Nuggets and then neither Paul George or Kawhi played in Friday's 115-128 loss at Minnesota. Kawhi is expected back for this game and I believe George will play, despite showing up as questionable in the injury report. I just feel that's more of them just making up an injury to get the league off their back for him not playing in the second of a back-to-back. So this is really the Clippers first time to respond to their poor effort in the loss to the Nuggets. I just think when this team has all their pieces, they are one of the best teams in the Western Conference. It's also not like the Hawks come into this matchup playing great basketball. Atlanta has lost 5 of their last 6 and are in the much worse scheduling spot, playing their 4th straight game on the road in a week. We just saw them way overvalued in their last game, listed as a 3-point favorite and losing 114-130 to the Lakers. Hawks are just 5-11 ATS over their last 16 games. Give me the Clippers -3.5 |
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01-08-23 | Hornets v. Pacers -5 | 111-116 | Push | 0 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
8* NBA Situational ATS MASSACRE: Indiana Pacers -5 I don't understand the line move here. This line opened at Indiana -7 and has dropped down to 5? They could be without stud rookie Bennedict Mathurin, who has been a force for them off the bench and is third on the team in scoring at 17.4 ppg. I just don't feel that his absence will have a big impact on their game against the Hornets. Scoring is not going to be an issue against this Charlotte team. Hornets have allowed 119 or more points in 14 of their last 16 games. Indiana had scored 122 or more in 5 straight before scoring just 108 against the Blazers, where they couldn't buy a basket from deep. This is also a very deep Pacers team, who has a number of guys that can pick up the scoring slack if needed. I think you also got to factor in how well point guard Tyrese Haliburton is playing of late. Guy is quietly averaging 20.4 ppg and 10.2 apg, shooting 40.4% from 3 (averaging 3 made 3's a game) and is T-3rd in the league with 1.7 steals/game. Give me the Hornets -5! |
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01-08-23 | Iowa v. Rutgers -5.5 | 76-65 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 56 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Rutgers Scarlet Knights -5.5 I'll gladly take my chances with Rutgers laying just 5.5 at home against Iowa. The Hawkeyes aren't a bad team by any means, but they are definitely down from the caliber a team they have put on the floor the past few seasons. I played on them at home against Indiana in their last game. I just don't trust them on the road, especially without Patrick McCaffrey. They need a guy like that's scoring against this Rutgers defense, especially away from home. Scarlet Knights are No. 3 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 5 in opponents effective FG%. Rutgers offense isn't great, but this is an Iowa defense that isn't very good and one that struggles to defend down low. Hawkeyes are 210th in the country in defending 2-pt attempts. I just don't think Iowa's offense will be good enough for them to keep this close. Give me Rutgers -5.5! |
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01-07-23 | Jazz -1.5 v. Bulls | 118-126 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
8* NBA Oddsmakers PUBLIC TRAP PLAY OF THE DAY: Utah Jazz -1.5 This line stinks and it keeps getting worse. Chicago opened as a 1-point favorite and now it's Utah that's favored. It makes no sense. Bulls are off a 126-112 win at 76ers last night, improving to 7-3 in their last 10 games. Utah had lost 5 straight before winning at Houston on Wednesday. Beating a bad Rockets team in a game they were favored by 6.5 is not exactly something that's going to make the public want to bet the Jazz at basically a pick'em on the road. They are going to line up to play Chicago. Clearly someone knows something or has a pretty good insight into this game for Utah to be favored. It's just so far off what you would think it should be, you have to take the other side. This does feel like a bit of a flat spot for Chicago, playing on no rest after a gauntlet 4-game stretch in 7 days, where they played a home-and-home vs the Cavs, hosted the Nets and finished up with last night's game in Philly. Utah's best player is Lauri Markkanen. The former Bull, who has to feel a bit like the team gave up on him to early. Certainly looks that way. He's going to be motivated to play well in this one and teams typically follow the lead of their best player. Give me the Jazz -1.5! |
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01-06-23 | Bulls +4.5 v. 76ers | Top | 126-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Chicago Bulls +4.5 I'll take my chances with Chicago catching 4.5 on the road against a 76ers team that will be without one of the best players in the game in Joel Embiid. Bulls have been playing some of their best basketball of the season here of late. Chicago is 6-3 SU and 6-2-1 ATS over their last 9 games. Two of those losses were by 1-point at home to the Cavs and by 11 in OT at Cleveland. They just beat a red-hot Nets team 121-112 as 5-point home dog last time out. 76ers were able to win without Embiid on Wednesday, knocking off the Pacers 129-126, but needed OT to secure the victory and did not cover. Philly has enough scorers to put up points without Embiid, but they really miss him on the defensive side of the ball. Chicago isn't a great 3-point shooting team, but are connecting on 48.7% of their attempts for the season and have shot 48% or better from the field in 9 of their last 10 games. Only exception was against a Bucks defense that is one of the best in the NBA on the defensive side of the ball. Harden, Maxey, Harris and Melton all played 37 or more minutes in that OT win against the Pacers and only 7 guys had more than 20 minutes. I just think their lack of depth and not having Embiid puts them in a tough spot here. Give me the Bulls +4.5! |
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01-05-23 | Indiana v. Iowa -1 | 89-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Iowa Hawkeyes -1 I'll take my chances with Iowa as a mere 1-point home favorite against the Hoosiers. Some might think the Hawkeyes shouldn't be favored in this game. Iowa has lost their last 3 and starter Patrick McCaffery is taking a personal leave of absence. I like this team to respond in a big way in this game. Indiana has injury concerns of their own. Trayce-Jackson Davis has missed the last two games and is listed as questionable. They are also without 3rd leading scorer Xavier Johnson (9.9 ppg), who also leads the teams in assists (4.9 apg). We saw the Hawkeyes annihilate a very good Iowa State team at home without their best player in Kris Murray. McCaffery was a solid contributor, but not a loss they can't overcome. They still got their 3 best scorers on the floor in Murray, Filip Rebraca and Tony Perkins. This team as a whole just shoots the ball better at home. They are shooting 44.7% from the field and 31.8% from the 3-point line on the season. Those spike to 48.9% and 36.2% at home. Give me Iowa -1! |
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01-04-23 | Missouri +7.5 v. Arkansas | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
8* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER: Missouri Tigers +7.5 I'll take my chances with Missouri as a 7.5-point road dog against Arkansas. The Tigers just continue to get disrespected by the books. Missouri is 12-1 and come into this game off 3 straight Top 50 wins, beating UCF, Illinois and most recently Kentucky. They annihilated the Fighting Illini 93-71 on a neutral floor and crushed Kentucky 89-75 at home. I get playing on the road is tough, but this line is suggesting that Arkansas is the far superior team. I'm just not buying it. Yes the Razorbacks are 11-2 and ranked No. 13 in the country, but their only two Top 50 wins are against San Diego State (in OT) and Oklahoma. I not only think the Tigers cover here, but I give them a legit shot to win this game outright. Give me Missouri +7.5! |
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01-04-23 | Grizzlies v. Hornets +8 | 131-107 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
8* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Charlotte Hornets +8 I'll take my chances with the Hornets catching 8-points at home against the Grizzlies. It's been a dreadful start to the 2022-23 season for Charlotte, who comes into this game at just 10-28 and a lousy 3-13 over their last 16 games. The big reason I'm taking a shot on the Hornets, is the biggest reason their record is what it is, is the laundry list of injuries this team has had to deal with. Their best player, LaMelo Ball, has only played 14 games Terry Rozier has missed double-digit games and Dennis Smith Jr just returned to play in his 16th game of the season. Even with Gordon Hayward (not playing well anyway) not likely to play tonight, I think this is as healthy as Charlotte has been all season. I think they show up with a lot of fight here against Memphis. Grizzlies have been playing well, but this is just too many for them to be laying on the road. Give me the Hornets +8! |
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01-04-23 | Thunder +2.5 v. Magic | 115-126 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
9* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5 I'll take my chances with the Thunder as a 2.5-point road dog against the Magic on Wednesday. I just don't think Orlando has any business being favored in this game. Orlando, who is already without the likes of Jalen Suggs and Jonathan Isaac, will not have Franz Wagner, Mortiz Wagner or Bol Bol for this game. So while OKC is playing in the second of a back-to-back on the road, they should have more than enough here to get the win against a depleted Magic side. Orlando has lost 3 straight coming in, including a 100-119 loss at home to the Wizards in their last game. They are scoring just 104 ppg and giving up 123 ppg during this losing streak. OKC just put up 150 last night on Boston. Give me the Thunder +2.5! |
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01-04-23 | Iowa State v. Oklahoma -3 | 63-60 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Oklahoma Sooners -3 I'll take my chances with Oklahoma as a slim 3-point home favorite against Iowa State on Wednesday. We played on and won with the Cyclones in Saturday's 77-62 win over Baylor as a 2-point home dog. ISU is just one of those teams that I think is a great team to back at home and fade on the road. A lot of teams fit this bills in the Big 12 and Big 10. The only true road game the Cyclones have played this season was at in-state rival Iowa and they lost that game 56-75 with the Hawkeyes not having their best player in Kris Murray. Now they have to go on the road against a good and hungry Oklahoma team that is coming off a 1-point loss at home to highly ranked Texas. This is a team that has been playing well. They are 9-3 over their last 12 games with the other two losses coming by 4-points at Villanova and by 10 on a neutral court against a very good Arkansas team. Give me the Sooners -3! |
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01-03-23 | Kings v. Jazz -2.5 | 117-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
9* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Utah Jazz -2.5 I'll take my chances with the Jazz as a 2.5-point home favorite against the Kings. Utah comes in having lost 4 straight, but it's not like they haven't been competitive during the losing streak. All 4 losses have come by 5 points or less. One of those being a 125-126 loss at Sacramento last Friday. Not only will the Jazz be motivated here to get back in the win column, but they are going to want revenge on the Kings. I think they get it, as this is not an ideal spot for Sacramento. Kings will be playing their 5th game in 8 days and second straight on the road in one of the more tougher places to play, especially if you come in any kind of bad rest spot. Making matters worse for Sacramento, is they face a rested Utah team that is playing on a full two days of rest. Give me the Jazz -2.5! |
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01-03-23 | Ole Miss +12.5 v. Alabama | Top | 62-84 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Sharp Money Vegas Insider: Ole Miss Rebels +12.5 I'll take my chances with Ole Miss as a 12.5-point road dog against No. 7 Alabama. I just think this is a few too many points for the Crimson Tide to be laying in this spot. Crimson Tide are off a double-digit road win against Mississippi State to open up SEC play, improving to 11-2. I think this team might be feeling themselves a little too much and will have a hard time not looking ahead to Saturday's huge showdown against Kentucky. It makes it that much easier to not give the Rebels enough respect when they come in having lost their last two and are just 2-5 in their last 7 games. They do have a bad loss at home to North Alabama during this stretch, but the other 4 losses are against teams ranked 32nd or better at KenPom and all of those losses came by 11 or fewer points. For as good as Alabama has been, their only win in their last 9 games by more than 13 points was a 20-point win at home over Jackson State. They 13-point win was against South Dakota State. I expect the Crimson Tide to win this game, I just think they would need to play their very best to win here by more than the number. Give me Ole Miss +12.5! |
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01-02-23 | Raptors v. Pacers -1 | 114-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
9* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Indiana Pacers -1 I'll take my chances with the Pacers as a slim 1-point home favorite against the Raptors on Monday. Indiana has won 5 of their last 6 and are 7-2 ATS over their last 9 games. Indiana is a perfect 3-0 on their 4-game homestand, winning all 3 as a dog. They have host 51% or better from the field in each of their last 3 games, scoring at least 129 points in each win. I just think this team is playing too well to basically a pick'em against a Raptors team that is just 3-8 SU over their last 11 games and just 5-12 SU on the road this season. Toronto is rested, but are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 road games when playing 4 or fewer games in a 10-day stretch. Pacers are 8-1 ATS last 9 at home when they come in having covered 4/5 of their last 6. Give me the Pacers -1! |
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01-02-23 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma State -2.5 | 60-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Oklahoma State Cowboys -2.5 I'll take my chances with Oklahoma State laying 2.5-points at home against West Virginia on Monday. Don't be fooled by the records or rankings. Anytime you have an unranked team favored over a ranked team, I tend to look that way. The Cowboys may be just 8-5 on the season, but 4 of the 5 losses have come by 5 or fewer points, including a mere 2-point loss at Kansas on Saturday. The only other loss was by 10 in a true road game against a very good UConn team. West Virginia is 10-3, but all 10 wins have come against teams ranked outside the Top 45. They lost by 12-points on a neutral site to Purdue and by 10 on the road at Xavier. They are also coming off a OT loss at K-State on Saturday. Having just 1-day of rest, off an OT game and both games being on the road in Big 12 play is a lot to ask the Mountaineers to overcome in this spot. Give me Oklahoma State -2.5! |
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12-31-22 | 76ers v. Thunder +4.5 | 115-96 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
8* NBA Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY: Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5 I'll take my chances with the Thunder catching 4.5-points at home against the 76ers on Saturday. Tough spot here for Philadelphia, who is in quite the letdown spot after playing a big game last night at New Orleans. It's also the 76ers 4th and final game of a 4-game road trip. I just think playing on no rest with all that travel has them set to struggle to perform up to expectations. I also wouldn't be shocked at all if Philadelphia decided to sit one of their two stars in the second of a back-to-back. OKC on the other hand is a young team that has been way better than expected and it shows in their ATS record. Thunder are 20-14 ATS on the season and come in having covered 6 of their last 9 games. I'll take the points, but I like OKC to win this outright. Give me the Thunder +4.5! |
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12-31-22 | Marquette v. Villanova -2.5 | 68-66 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Villanova Wildcats -2.5 I'll take my chances with Villanova as a small 2.5-point home favorite against Marquette on Saturday. This to me is just too good a price to pass up on the Wildcats at home, especially with Villanova figuring to be extra motivated coming off a loss at UConn. Wildcats are just 7-6 overall, but have played one of the tougher schedules in the country, as 4 of their 6 losses are to teams ranked inside the Top 50. They also have a loss on a neutral floor to Oregon and a loss at Temple early in the year. All 6 losses have also come by 8-points or fewer with 3 by 4 or less. Marquette is a good team that has been impressive in their 10-4 start with a bunch of quality losses of their own, but are just 1-2 in true road games with the only win coming against a struggling Notre Dame team that also has home losses to Miami and Syracuse. Just not enough respect being given to the Wildcats in this one. Give me Villanova -2.5! |
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12-31-22 | Baylor v. Iowa State +2 | 62-77 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show | |
8* NCAAB - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Iowa State Cyclones +2 I will gladly take the Cyclones as a 2-point home dog against Baylor on Saturday. Iowa State is off to an impressive 9-2 start, with their only two losses coming against UConn on a neutral floor and a true road game against in-state rival Iowa, where the Hawkeyes couldn't miss from deep (12 of 23, 52.2%). Cyclones are a perfect 7-0 at home this season and have one of the best homecourt advantages in the country. They are also extremely well rested for this game, having not played since Dec. 18th. Baylor on the other hand just played a game on Wednesday and while the Bears are off to a strong 10-2 start, they don't have the same dominant feel to them as the last couple of years. Baylor's only true road game was at Marquette back on Nov. 29th and the Bears were annihilated by the Golden Eagles 96-70. This one figures to be a little closer, but no way should ISU be a dog in this matchup. Give me Iowa State +2! |
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12-30-22 | Jazz v. Kings -3 | 125-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
9* NBA Late Night ATS SLAUGHTER: Sacramento Kings -3 I'll gladly take my chances with the Kings as a slim 3-point home favorite against the Jazz on Friday. Utah surprised a lot of teams early on with their effort and it resulted in them greatly exceeding expectations. Most thought this team was one of the front-runners to finish with the worst record in the league. While they clearly aren't that team, I think that early success has them overvalued as teams have started to treat them with a little more respect. Utah is just 5-7 ATS in their last 12 games. The defense continues to be a problem and that's what I believe will ultimately do them in against a very good Kings offense. Kings are scoring 118.0 ppg on the season and that number jumps to 122.1 ppg in home games. I also think Sacramento is coming into this game with a ton of momentum after turning a 19-point 3rd quarter deficit into a 127-126 win at home over the Nuggets on Wednesday. This is also a tough spot for Utah, as they will be playing their 3rd straight on the road. It's also the Jazz's 6th road game in their last 7 overall. Give me the Kings -3! |
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12-30-22 | NC State v. Clemson -1.5 | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Clemson Tigers -1.5 I'm backing Clemson as a 1.5-point home favorite against NC State in Friday's ACC action on the college hardwood. The Tigers are off to a strong 10-3 start and have 6 of their last 7 coming into this matchup. Two of their 3 losses were by just a few points, as they lost 58-60 in a true road game against South Carolina and by 3-points on a neutral site against Iowa. I just feel the Tigers are being a bit short-changed here at home, where they are a perfect 7-0 this season. NC State is also off to a good start, as they bring an 11-3 record into this game. However, the Wolfpack have only played one true road game to this point, which has certainly aided their strong start. NC State's lone true road game was at Miami and they lost that game 73-80 after jumping out to a 33-17 lead in the first 13 minutes of the game. Wolfpack were outscored 63-40 over the final 27 minutes and change of that game. If they struggle out of the gate in this one, this could get ugly in a hurry. Give me Clemson -1.5! |
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12-29-22 | Clippers v. Celtics -5.5 | 110-116 | Win | 100 | 19 h 26 m | Show | |
9* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Boston Celtics -5.5 I'm going to lay the 5.5 with the Celtics at home against the Clippers on Tuesday. Both teams come into this game playing well. LA has won and covered 4 of their last 5, while Boston has won and covered each of their last 3. What I really like is the revenge that Boston will be playing with in this game. These two teams met not that long ago in LA (Dec. 12). A game the Celtics lost 93-113. The key thing to note is that it was an awful spot for Boston. They were coming off a game at Golden State two days earlier, which was their first shot at the Warriors since losing to them in the Finals last year. They were also playing their 5th straight game on the road. Celtics had gone from Brooklyn to Toronto to Phoenix to Golden State in the 8 days leading up to that game. This time the roles are reversed. Celtics have done zero traveling since arriving home from LA, as this will be their 7th straight home game. The Clippers on the other hand will be playing their 5th straight on the road. It will also be their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the Celtics -5.5! |
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12-29-22 | Iowa v. Nebraska +4.5 | 50-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Nebraska Cornhuskers +4.5 I'm taking Nebraska as a 4.5-point home dog against the Hawkeyes. I don't think getting back Khris Murray will be enough for Iowa to go on the road and beat the Cornhuskers by 5 or more. I think it will be a struggle for the Hawkeyes to just win the game. Iowa is 1-0 in true road games, beating Seton Hall 83-67 back in November. At the time that win was impressive, but it's looking less and less of a quality win with the Pirates now sitting at 7-7, having lost 6 of their last 9. Nebraska comes in having lost 3 of their last 4 and are just 7-6 on the season, but have played one of the toughest schedules in the country. They have lost in true road games against St. John's and Indiana. Neutral site games against Oklahoma, Memphis and Kansas State. The only other loss is a 62-65 OT setback at home against Purdue, who many feel is the best team in the Big Ten. I just think both of these teams are going to be teams you look to back on their home floor and fade on the road in Big Ten play, especially in games with a smaller line like we have here. Give me Nebraska +4.5! |
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12-28-22 | Jazz -3 v. Warriors | 107-112 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Utah Jazz -3 I'll take my chance with Utah as a slim 3-point road favorite against the Warriors. Golden State has looked much better since return home from a dreadful 6-game road trip, where they went just 1-5. The Warriors upset Memphis 123-109 as a 7.5-point home dog on Christmas Day and then held on for a 110-105 win and cover at home against the Hornets last night. Why fade them here? Couple reasons. One is rest. Golden State will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and will be doing so against a rested Jazz team that will be playing just their 2nd game in the last 6 days. The other is the likely absence of Klay Thompson, who is listed as doubtful due to injury management. With Thompson, Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins all sidelined, there's not much for scoring options outside of Jordan Poole. I just think the lack of offense is going to do in the Warriors in this one. Utah is 4th in the NBA in scoring at 117.2 ppg and should be able to do as they please against a tired Warriors team. Give me the Jazz -3! |
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12-28-22 | Kentucky -3 v. Missouri | 75-89 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Kentucky Wildcats -3 I'll take my chances with Kentucky laying 3 on the road against Missouri. I just feel we are getting some good value here with the Wildcats. Missouri is off to an impressive 11-1 start and last time they took the floor they embarrassed Illinois 93-71 as a 6.5-point dog. Last time we saw Kentucky in a big game was a neutral site matchup against UCLA and they did not look great in a 53-63 loss. The one thing to note about Missouri and their 11-1 record, is they rank a mere 318th in strength of schedule. The Tigers only other game vs a team ranked inside the Top 50 resulted in a 67-95 loss at home to Kansas. I also really think Kentucky is going to come in motivated and sharp for this game. Wildcats are just 1-3 in games away from home and know they have to get better away from Lexington heading into SEC play. Kentucky also hasn't played in a week and a week of practice can do wonders for a young team like the Wildcats. Give me Kentucky -3! |
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12-27-22 | Knicks v. Mavs -4.5 | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
9* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Dallas Mavericks -4.5 I'll take my chances with the Mavs as a 4.5-point home favorite against the Knicks on Tuesday. New York has lost three in a row since rolling off 8 straight wins and now figure to be without arguably their most important piece to the puzzle in point guard Jalen Brunson, who left with a hip injury and did return in Sunday's Christmas Day loss at home to the 76ers. Brunson is listed as questionable, but with just 1-day off and the Knicks only two other games over the next week being favorable road matchups against the Spurs and Rockets, I have a hard time seeing him play in this game. Without Brunson to run the offense, I think it could be tough sledding for the Knicks against a good Mavs team that is playing well, having won their last 3 games. Give me Dallas -4.5! |
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12-27-22 | Lakers v. Magic -3 | Top | 129-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Orlando Magic -3 I'll take my chances with the Magic as a 3-point home favorite against the Lakers. It's been all downhill for LA since they lost Anthony Davis to a foot injury. Lakers come in having lost 4 straight and have played absolutely zero defense during the losing streak. LA is giving up 130.5 ppg in this stretch. I don't see it getting any better against the Magic, who have been one of the hottest teams in the league in the month of December. Orlando is 8-1 over their last 9 games and have covered 10 straight. The only loss being a mere 1-point defeat on the road against the Hawks. If the Lakers weren't such a public team, this line would be closer to 7. Simply put, there's too much value with Orlando at this price. Give me the Magic -3! |
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12-25-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 118-139 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Boston Celtics -4.5 I'll take my chances with the Celtics as a 4.5-point home favorite against the Bucks on Christmas Day. I just think that when they have played their best, Boston has looked like the best team in the NBA and I expect the best they have to offer in this game against the Bucks. Boston snapped a 3-game skid with a 121-109 win and cover at home against the Timberwolves on Friday. It was the best they have looked in 2 weeks and I like them to build on that. As for the Bucks, they come in off back-to-back losses, falling 106-114 at Cleveland last Wednesday and then 100-118 at Brooklyn on Friday. This will be Milwaukee's 4th straight game on the road in what has really been a brutal stretch in their schedule. The Bucks are also just not a great road team this year. Milwaukee is 14-3 at home compared to just 8-7 on the road. The offense simply hasn't been good enough away from home, as they are scoring just 106.0 ppg on 43.5% shooting on the road. That's a problem against this Celtics team that was on a historic offensive pace before their recent swoon. Boston also just got one of the games best interior defenders back in Robert Williams. Celtics have the big guys inside to make it tough on Giannis and without him dominating the game, I don't know where the offense is going to come from for the Bucks. Give me the Celtics -4.5! |
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12-23-22 | Blazers v. Nuggets -4.5 | 107-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
9* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Denver Nuggets -4.5 I'll take my chances with the Nuggets as a 4.5-point home favorite against the Blazers. Denver comes into this game having won 5 of their last 6 and are 10-3 SU at home this season. Portland is going in the opposite direction, as the Blazers have dropped 3 of their last 4, including back-to-back upset losses on the road against OKC last two times out. The big key to his handicap is the big rest advantage for the Nuggets. Denver is playing their third straight game at home and had very little travel of late, playing just 1 road game since Dec. 8th. Nuggets had a full 2 days off leading up to this game. Portland on the other hand is finishing up a 6-game road trip and will be playing their 5th road game in a span of 8 days. Give me the Nuggets -4.5! |
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12-23-22 | Bulls v. Knicks -5 | 118-117 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
8* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: New York Knicks -5 I'll take my chances with the Knicks laying 5-points at home against the Bulls Friday night. New York had their 8-game winning streak snapped in a 106-113 loss at home to the Raptors on Wednesday. Couple things played into that loss. One the Knicks were sloppy with the ball in the second of a back-to-back. New York had 16 turnovers and generated a season-low 4 on the defensive side of the ball. Toronto also got a 52-point effort out of Pascal Siakam. I feel really good about the Knicks getting back to their winning ways against a Bulls team that I just don't have a lot of trust in. Chicago has won their last two, but will be playing their 4th straight on the road and 3rd road game in 4 nights. Bulls beat the Hawks 110-108 on a last second shot last time out, which adds even more value to this play on New York. Teams off an upset loss as a home favorite against an opponent off a road win by 3 or less points are 37-14 (72.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Give me the Knicks -5! |
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12-21-22 | Raptors v. Knicks -1.5 | 113-106 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
8* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Knicks -1.5 I'll take my chances with the Knicks as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against the Raptors. The only real negative for New York is they are playing on rest after last night's blowout win over the Warriors on TNT. That's now 8 straight wins and covers for the Knicks. This team is rolling right now. Toronto is going in the opposite direction. The Raptors have lost 6 in a row, going just 1-5 ATS in those games. They are far from in a favorable scheduling spot, as this will be their 3rd game in a different city over the last 4 days. Toronto is also a mere 3-12 SU in road games this season. Give me the Knicks -1.5! |
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12-21-22 | Bucks v. Cavs -1.5 | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
9* NBA Blockbuster ATS ANNIHILATOR: Cleveland Cavaliers -2 I'll take my chances with the Cavs laying just 2-points at home against the Bucks. Cleveland is 15-2 at home this season. They come in having won 4 straight and playing their 4th straight game at home (no travel). Milwaukee has won their last two and just had that impressive 128-119 win at New Orleans last time out, but are just 5-6-2 ATS on the road this year. This is a measuring stick game for the Cavs, as they are trying to reach the level Milwaukee has established. They certainly haven't forgot about how the first meeting between these two teams went. Cleveland had as much as a 16-point lead in a 102-117 loss at Milwaukee. They let the Bucks go on a 23-2 run to start the 3rd quarter, which they got outscored 35-10. They gave up 65 points in the 2nd half after holding them to 52 in the 1st half. Cavs are a great defensive team and one that has the athletic big guys inside that at least give them a chance at defending Antetokounmpo. Give me Cleveland -2! |
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12-20-22 | Oklahoma v. Florida -3 | 62-53 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
8* NCAAB ATS ANNIHILATOR: Florida -3 I'll take my chances with Florida as a 3-point favorite against Oklahoma. The game will be played on a neutral court (Spectrum Center) in Charlotte. This is one of those "You have to bet no matter what" the numbers say. KenPom would have Oklahoma a 1-point favorite in this game, yet they are getting 3. These lines aren't typically too far off from KenPoms projections. That tells me the books don't agree with the numbers on this one. They are inviting you to bet the Sooners. These are just the kind of plays you don't want to be on the public side and instead should be betting the other side. Give me the Gators -3! |
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12-20-22 | Warriors v. Knicks -4.5 | Top | 94-132 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: New York Knicks -4.5 I'll take my chances with the Knicks as a 4.5-point home favorite against the Warriors. New York is one of the hottest teams in the NBA and are easily playing their best basketball of the season. Knicks come into this game having gone a perfect 7-0 SU and 7-0 ATS over their last 7 games. A big reason for their strong play, is the improved play on the defensive side of the ball. New York is allowing just 98.2 ppg during their 7-game win streak and only once in this stretch have they allowed more than 106 points. The Warriors come into this game off an impressive 126-110 win on the road against the Raptors as a 6-point dog. It was a nice win, but this a team I don't want a lot to do with while Steph Curry remains out of the lineup. That was the Warriors first win without Curry on the floor this season, as they are 1-4 in games without him. It's worth noting that the win did come against a struggling Raptors team that has lost 6 in a row. They also got a career-high 43 points from Joran Poole and shot 46.2 (18-39) on 3-pointers. No other Warrior player had more than 17 points. Warriors are just 4-13 ATS in road games this season and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after a SU win. Knicks are 16-3 ATS over the last 3 seasons when they come in having covered 4 or more games in a row. Give me New York -4.5! |
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12-18-22 | Auburn v. USC +1.5 | 71-74 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Sharp Money ATS ANNIHILATOR: USC Trojans +1.5 I'll take my chances with USC as a slim 1.5-point home dog against Auburn on Sunday. The Tigers come into this game with a 9-1 record, but their only two wins vs a team ranked inside the Top 100 at KenPom are a 43-42 win on a neutral site against Northwestern and a 65-60 win at home vs St. Louis. Their only other Top 100 matchup resulted in a 73-82 loss at Memphis. USC had an ugly loss to Florida Gulf Coast in their opener, but have gone 8-2 since with their only losses being a 66-73 OT loss to Tennessee on a neutral floor and a 59-64 loss to Wisconsin on a neutral site. Trojans are elite defensively inside. USC ranks 15th nationally in opponent effective FG% at 43.1. They are also No. 4 in the country in 2PT% defense. That should be a huge factor in this matchup, as Auburn can't shoot from the outside. Tigers are 334th nationally in 3PT% offense. They are also just 232nd in offensive effective FG%. This will also be Auburn's first true road game of the season and it's a long way from home. The wrong team is favored in this one. Give me USC +1.5! |
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12-17-22 | Nebraska v. Kansas State -3.5 | Top | 56-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Non-Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH: Kansas State -3.5 I'll take my chances with Kansas State as a 3.5-point home favorite against the Cornhuskers. This will technically be a neutral site game, which I think is factoring into the value we are getting with the Wildcats, as this will certainly feel like a home game for K-State with the game being played at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City. This does feel like a better Nebraska team than what we have seen in recent years. They have an impressive 65-53 win over Creighton and just lost in OT at home to Purdue, who many believe is the best team in the Big Ten. With that said, they also lost by 16 on the road to Indiana in their Big Ten opener. They have a 20-point loss on the road to St. John's, 13-point loss on a neutral site against Oklahoma and a 12-point loss to Memphis on a neutral site. The Nebraska offense ranks 276th in 3P%, 328th in FT%, they also turn the ball over a lot and do a poor job of getting to the free throw line. I also think it's worth pointing out that the Cornhuskers' opponents this season are shooting a mere 60.5% from the free throw line. The 2nd lowest mark against any team in the country. That's pure luck. There's no defending a free throw. K-State who comes in 9-1 with their only loss in a true road game at Butler is simply the better team on both sides of the ball. Two stats that I love with the Wildcats is they are No. 9 defensively in the country in TO% and No. 6 offensively in assists/FG made. This team shares the ball at an elite level and forces the other team into mistakes. Give me Kansas St -3.5! |
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12-17-22 | Heat v. Spurs +7.5 | 111-101 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
9* NBA - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: San Antonio Spurs +7.5 I'll take my chances with the Spurs catching 7.5-points at home against the Heat on Saturday. Miami to me is a bit overvalued coming into this game. The Heat enter on a 3-game win streak, but just as easily could be 0-3 in those games. They had a 5-point win at Indiana, 2-point win at OKC and a 3-point win at Houston. It's also worth noting that all 3 of those games were played on the road. This will be Miami's 3rd road game in 4 days and their 4th in the last 6. I know there's a lot of positives on the injury front for the Heat in terms of guys playing, but this is a banged up team at this juncture of the season. Miami has 15 guys on their injury report. I just think it's asking a lot for them to go on the road and have their way with the Spurs. San Antonio is just 4-17 since their surprising 5-2 start to the season, but 3 of those 4 wins have come in their last 4 games. This will also be the Spurs third straight game at home and just their second game in the last 5 days. It would not surprise me at all if San Antonio won this game outright. Give me the Spurs +7.5! |
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12-16-22 | Blazers v. Mavs -3.5 | 110-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Dallas Mavericks -3.5 I'll take my chances with the Mavs as a slim 3.5-point home favorite against the Blazers on Friday. This to me is a great spot to jump on Dallas at a discount after their ugly 90-105 loss at home to the Cavs on Wednesday. It was a dreadful offensive showing from the Mavs, who shot just 39.2% from the field against a stingy Cleveland defense. They aren't going to get the same kind of resistance from the Blazers. Portland is allowing opposing teams to shoot 47.4% from the field on the season and have allowed 49.0% shooting over their last 5 games. Mavs are 21-9 ATS last 30 games after failing to score at least 100 points in their previous game. They are also 31-19 ATS in their last 50 games off a SU loss and 10-1 ATS last 11 at home after a game that saw a combined score of 195 or less. Give me Dallas -3.5! |
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12-16-22 | Knicks v. Bulls -2.5 | Top | 114-91 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
10* NBA - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER: Chicago Bulls -2.5 I'll take my chances with the Bulls as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Knicks on Friday. I love the revenge spot for Chicago, as these two teams played in Chicago on Wednesday with New York securing a 128-120 win in OT. It's just not easy beating the same team twice on the road and this is a Chicago team that has thrived in this spot. Bulls are 25-12 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. There's also a big time system in play favoring a Chicago cover. Favorites that are off a home loss and revenging a loss as a home favorite are 83-37 (69.2%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Favorites off an upset loss as a home favorite against an opponent off a win as a road dog are 79-41 (65.8%) over the last 5 seasons. Give me the Bulls -2.5! |
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12-14-22 | UCLA v. Maryland -1 | 87-60 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Maryland Terrapins -1 I'll take my chances with Maryland as a slim 1-point home favorite against UCLA. I think we are getting great value here with the Terps at basically a pick'em on their home floor. Maryland comes in having lost 2 straight after their perfect 8-0 start. Nothing to be ashamed about either loss, as they lost by 5 on the road to Wisconsin in Big Ten play and then by just 3 on a neutral site to Tennessee. UCLA comes in having won 5 in a row, but will be playing their first true road game outside of the state of California. Bruins two best wins are both in Pac-12 play, beating Stanford and Oregon. They lost their two other top tier matchups, falling 70-79 to Illinois on a neutral site and then 75-80 to Baylor on a neutral site. Give me the Terps -1! |
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12-14-22 | Kings v. Raptors -4.5 | Top | 124-123 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Toronto Raptors -4.5 I'll take my chances with the Raptors as a 4.5-point home favorite against the Kings. This is an easy play on Toronto for me. This is an awful scheduling spot for Sacramento. The Kings aren't playing well, having lost 3 of their last 4. They were dominated last night in Philly by the 76ers. I just don't think this team has much gas in the tank. Not only are the Kings playing in the second of a back-to-back, but it's their 3rd road game in 4 nights and the 5th straight road game as they continue on their 6-game road trip. Toronto on the other hand is going to be extremely motivated to get back in the win column after dropping back-to-back games on the road against the Magic this past weekend. Key here is the Raptors are going to have some fresh legs, having had the last two days off. Toronto is also a different team at home, where they are 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS. Toronto is 20-9 ATS last 29 when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days and 13-3 ATS last 16 at home off an upset loss as a favorite. Give me the Raptors -4.5! |
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12-11-22 | Wisconsin +4.5 v. Iowa | 78-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
8* NCAAB - Smart Money ATS MASSACRE: Wisconsin Badgers +4.5 I'll take my chances with Wisconsin as a 4.5-point road dog against the Hawkeyes. I cashed on Iowa as a small home favorite against Iowa State, but I did bet that game before news broke that Iowa's best player, Khris Murray was ruled out. Murray is not going to play again today and I just think without him, they are going to have a much harder time against the Badgers. Iowa really just had one of those nights against their in-state rivals, as they were 12 of 23 (52.2%) from behind the 3-point line. This is not a team outside of Murray that has shot the 3-ball well. It helped the Cyclones seemed willing to give them wide-open looks from deep. The Badgers won't let that happen. Give me Wisconsin +4.5! |
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12-11-22 | Suns +3.5 v. Pelicans | 124-129 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
8* NBA - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Phoenix Suns +3.5 I'll take my chances with Phoenix as a 3.5-point road dog against the Pelicans. I really like this spot for the Suns, who are going to be out for revenge from Friday's loss in Phoenix. One that ended with Zion doing a 360 dunk in the final seconds that really irked the Suns players. Phoenix is 20-9 ATS last 2 seasons when revenging a loss and are 15-4 ATS last 19 avenging a a loss as a road favorite. Even if Booker (Questionable) doesn't play, I still like the more motivated Suns to cash the cover in this one. Give me Phoenix +3.5! |
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12-10-22 | Thunder +5.5 v. Cavs | 102-110 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
8* NBA - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Oklahoma City Thunder +5.5 I'll take my chances with the Thunder as a 5.5-point road dog against the Cavs on Saturday. Cleveland will be playing here on no rest after last night's 95-106 loss at home to the Kings. Donovan Mitchell sat out that game with a lower leg injury and could be held out of this one. Even if he plays, I like OKC to keep this close. Thunder have covered 4 of their last 5 and will have a big rest advantage in this game having not played since Wednesday. OKC is 9-5 ATS on the road this year, 31-18 in their last 49 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 21-9 ATS last 30 when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days. Give me the Thunder +5.5! |
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12-10-22 | Arizona v. Indiana | Top | 89-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Prime Time PLAY OF THE MONTH: Arizona Wildcats Pick'em I'll gladly take my chances with Arizona at a pick'em against Indiana in Saturday's neutral site showdown at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. I'm sure there will be some Hoosier fans that make the trip, but there should be more Wildcats in the building given the short trip. More than anything, I think Arizona is the better team. I'm just not completely sold Indiana is as good as what everyone makes them out to be. In their only two games outside of Indiana, they squeaked out a 2-point win at Xavier and lost by 15 at Rutgers. I could see them being a big play against team away from Assembly Hall in Big Ten play. I know Arizona just lost by 15 at Utah in their Pac-12 opener, but they at least have some wins away from home, beating the likes of Cincinnati, San Diego St and Creighton at neutral sites. I also think it's a good matchup for the Wildcats. Indiana relies heavily on Trayce Jackson-Davis to shoulder the load. He's averaging 17.5 ppg. Only one other player averages in double-figures and that's Xavier Johnson at 10.0 ppg. I think the Wildcats have the size inside to make it difficult on Jackson-Davis to get easy looks at the hoop. Arizona weakness defensively is the 3-point shot. THey are 246th in Def. 3-PT% and 44th in Def. 2-PT%. I think it will be tough for Indiana to keep pace offensively in what figures to be a game that's played up and down the floor. Give me Arizona PK! |
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12-10-22 | Louisville +10.5 v. Florida State | 53-75 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 42 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Early Bird ATS SLAUGHTER: Louisville Cardinals +10.5 I'll take my chances with Louisville at +10.5. I know Louisville is bad, but so is Florida State. The Seminoles are 1-9 with their only win coming at home against Mercer. I just don't think this team should be laying double-digits against any conference opponent. The big thing to note about Louisville is their schedule. The Cardinals' last 5 games have come against Miami, Maryland, Cincinnati, Texas Tech and Arkansas. All of those teams rank in the Top 50 at KenPom. In their 3 other losses they were all 1-point defeats to Bellarmine, Wright State and App State. You got to think this team is chomping at the bit to get their first win and they have to feel like they got a chance in this game. If Louisville isn't competitive here, I'm going to jump ship immediately on this team going forward. I just think there's too much value given what we have seen out of the Seminoles. It wouldn't shock me at all if the Cardinals won this game outright. Give me Louisville +10.5! |
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12-08-22 | Iowa State v. Iowa -3.5 | 56-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Iowa Hawkeyes -3.5 I'll take my chances with Iowa at -3.5. This a full 3-points off the opening line of 6.5. That may have been a bit steep to lay with Iowa, but there's a big difference between only having to win a game by 4 instead of 7. I'm also not so sure why everyone is way down on Iowa in this spot. Iowa did not play well in their 62-74 loss to Duke in the Jimmy V Classic at MSG on Tuesday. It was also one of the worst games of the season for Kris Murray, who this team feeds off of offensively. I expect him to be a lot better in this one. I also don't think homecourt is getting enough respect here. Over the last 3 years Iowa is 33-5 SU on their home floor. They are 25-13 (66%) ATS in those games. Iowa State is 4-17 SU in road games the last 3 years. Home team has failed to cover just once in the last 6 meetings in the series. Give me the Hawkeyes -3.5! |
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12-07-22 | Celtics v. Suns +1.5 | 125-98 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 2 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Phoenix Suns +1.5 I'll take my chances with the Suns as a 1.5-point home dog against the Celtics. I know Boston is winning and covering just about every time they take the floor, but no way I'm passing up on Phoenix as a home dog. Suns are 12-2 SU at home this season, winning on average by 10.9 ppg. You have to think we are going to get the best the Suns have to offer against the reigning Eastern Conference Champs, who own the NBA's best record at 20-5. There's also a chance Phoenix will be getting back two starters in Torrey Craig and Chris Paul. Getting back Paul would be huge. He's been upgraded from out to questionable and it just feels like this would be the game they circle for him to return. Either way, I like the Suns to win this game. Lastly, I think there's a chance here we catch the Celtics not in top form. Not only is this their 3rd road game in 4 nights, but you have to think Saturday's game against the Warriors, who beat them in the Finals, is one they might be looking ahead to. Give me the Suns +1.5! |
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12-07-22 | Nebraska +13.5 v. Indiana | 65-81 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Public Money ATS SLAUGHTER: Nebraska Cornhuskers +13.5 I'll take my chances with Nebraska covering the 13.5 point spread on the road against the Hoosiers. I would be surprised if Indiana didn't win this game, but I think it's asking a lot for the Hoosiers to cover this big number, especially with a matchup against Arizona on deck Saturday. This is also a Nebraska team that I think is still being greatly undervalued even after their big 63-53 upset win on the road against Creighton this past Sunday. The Cornhuskers have looked like a different team since getting back their best player in Derrick Walker. He didn't play in either of their losses to St. John's or Oklahoma. The only loss with him on the floor is to Memphis. Nebraska is 6-1 ATS last 7 off a cover, 5-2 ATS last 7 on the road and are 10-3 ATS last 13 vs a team with a winning record. Give me Nebraska +13.5! |
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12-07-22 | Wizards v. Bulls -5.5 | Top | 111-115 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 60 m | Show |
10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Chicago Bulls -5.5 I really like Chicago to cover the 5.5 at home against the Wizards. This for me is all about the spot and the matchup. You have to think we get a huge effort here from this Bulls team. Chicago has had the last two days off to mull their recent funk. Not only do the Bulls come in off 3 straight loss, they are just 3-8 SU in their last 11 games. I do think this team will continue to disappoint until they get a healthy Lonzo Ball back in the lineup, but one thing Chicago has done under head coach Billy Donovan, is beat up on bad teams. Bulls are 35-14 SU and 31-17 ATS over the last 3 seasons as a home favorite. They are also 20-8 ATS last 28 at home vs a team with a losing road record. They have covered 4 of their last 5 at home vs the Wizards and 9 of the last 12 meetings overall. Washington comes in having lost 6 of their last 7 and are playing without Bradley Beal right now. Give me the Bulls -5.5! |
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12-06-22 | Iowa v. Duke -2 | 62-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Duke Blue Devils -2 I'll take my chances with Duke as a mere 2-point favorite against Iowa in their showdown at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday. This is a good but not great Hawkeyes team and I just feel that they are getting a little too much respect here. Iowa is 6-1, but their two best wins are against Seton Hall and Clemson, who look like at best teams that will be on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. The one above-average team they faced was TCU and they lost that game 66-79. I just don't think the Hawkeyes are good enough defensively to slow down this Duke offensive attack. I also think the Blue Devils will be able to get a lot of 2nd chances on offense with how good they are on the offensive glass (#2 in the country in Off. Reb%). Duke is also very good defensively at defending the 3-point shot and without the deep ball falling in at a high rate, I just don't know how the Hawkeyes keep pace in this one. Give me Duke -2! |
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12-06-22 | Maryland v. Wisconsin -1 | Top | 59-64 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Big Ten PLAY OF THE MONTH: Wisconsin Badgers -1 I'll take my chances with Wisconsin as a mere 1-point home favorite against Maryland. I think this is a good spot here to fade the Terps. Maryland comes into this game 8-0 and fresh off a 71-66 win at home over No. 16 ranked Illinois. That win jumped the Terps from No. 22 in the polls all the way up to No. 13. No question this team is better than expected, but winning on the road in the Big Ten is no easy task, especially against a quality team like Wisconsin. Keep in mind that Maryland's only true road game this season was against Louisville, who has yet to win a game this season at 0-8. I also think Badgers team isn't getting enough respect for their 6-2 start. Wisconsin's only two losses are by 1-point in OT against Kansas on a neutral floor and by 3 at home to Wake Forest. A game where they led by 5 with less than 5 minutes to play and were right there despite shooting just 43% from the field and allowing the Deacons to shoot 54%. Badgers also have quality wins over Stanford, Dayton, USC and Marquette. Give me Wisconsin -1! |
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12-04-22 | Grizzlies v. Pistons +6.5 | 122-112 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 49 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Detroit Pistons +6.5 I'll take my chances with Detroit as a 6.5-point home dog against the Grizzlies. Memphis is just not the same team on the road as they are at home. The Grizzlies are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS at home this season, compared to 5-7 SU and 2-8-2 ATS on the road. A big part of that is the lack of defense Memphis has played on the road. Grizzlies are giving up 118.0 ppg on 48.2% shooting from the field and 40% shooting from deep on the road. They will be facing a Pistons offense that has been much improved over the last couple of weeks. Detroit has shot 49% or better from the field in 5 of their lats 7 games, going for 50% or better in each of their last 2. This is also a well-rested Pistons team playing on a full 2 days of rest and this will be just their 2nd game in the last 6 days. Give me the Pistons +6.5! |
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12-04-22 | St. John's v. Iowa State -4 | 60-71 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
8* NCAAB Smart Money ATS MASSACRE: Iowa State Cyclones -4 I will gladly take my chances with Iowa State laying just 4-points at home against St. John's. I've really liked what I've seen out of this Cyclones team so far this year. Iowa State is 6-1 with their only loss coming to UConn, who is currently ranked No. 4 at KenPom. That was also a tired Cyclones team playing their 3rd game in 4 days and having just upset Villanova and UNC in their previous two. As for St. John's they are getting a lot of respect right now with their best win is against Syracuse and they needed OT to get it. That's also a Syracuse team that sits at just 4-4 with losses to Colgate and Bryant. Biggest reason the Red Storm are 8-0 is their schedule. St. John's strength of schedule ranks outside the Top 350. This will also be the Red Storm's first true road game of the 2022-23 season and ISU's Hilton Coliseum is one of the toughest places in the country to play. Give me the Cyclones -4! |
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12-02-22 | Illinois v. Maryland -1.5 | 66-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Late Night ATS SLAUGHTER: Maryland Terrapins -1.5 I'll take my chances with Maryland as a small 1.5-point home favorite against Illinois. It's been an impressive start for the Terps under first year head coach Kevin Willard. Maryland is 7-0 and can really define their season with a 4-game stretch that has them facing Illinois, Wisconsin, Tennessee and UCLA. I just feel like they are right there with the top teams in this conference and with how much home court means in the Big Ten, you got to give the edge here to Maryland. This is also a bit of a tricky spot for Illinois, coming off a 73-44 blowout win over Syracuse and having a showdown with Texas at Madison Square Garden on deck next Tuesday. Give me the Terps -1.5! |