40* FLORIDA/ALABAMA NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Alabama -2.5) 

We cashed with Alabama +10 in Saturday's 71-63 outright win on the road against No. 7 Tennessee and will gladly fire back with the Crimson Tide as a small home favorite against the Gators. I lost going against Florida in the Gators 83-79 win over LSU, but my same concerns with the Gators remain and that's them not having one of their best players in Keyontae Johnson. 

It's one thing to overcome an injury like that at home. It's a lot harder on the road. I just don't see Florida being able to keep pace with this fast-paced offense of Alabama. The one thing that really plagued the Tide early on was their 3-point shooting, but they have made at least 10 from deep in each of their last 3 games. Look for them to stay hot from the outside, as Florida's defense comes in ranked 261st in KenPom's 3P% ranking. 

Alabama is also a perfect 6-0 ATS last 3 seasons when listed as a home favorite of 3-points or less and 12-3 ATS last 15 when coming into a game after back-to-back covers. They have also covered 9 of their last 11 vs a team that's won 80% or more of their games. Give me the Crimson Tide -2.5! 

40* MAVS/ROCKETS NBA NO-BRAINER (Rockets -3) 

I'll gladly lay the short number at home with the Rockets. Houston has won 2 straight after dropping their first two. The thing you have to remember is they were decimated in those first two games with a bunch of guys out because of Covid. They have recently got back John Wall, Eric Gordon and DeMarcus Cousins. Ben McLemore and Kenyon Martin Jr. will be added to the mix for this game and James Harden is expected back after he sat out their last game with an ankle injury. 

Dallas is in the second game of a back-to-back. They were without their Luka Doncic in last night's 108-118 loss to Chicago. Donic is listed as questionable, but I wouldn't be shocked if they rested them in this one with two days off after this matchup. Dallas is also still without Porzingis and are just 2-4 SU and 2-4 ATS to start the season.

I know there's a lot of talk with Harden getting traded, but I also think it's what is giving us value with Houston right now. This is a very good team with the roster as is. Give me the Rockets -3! 

50* CAVS/MAGIC NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Magic -5) 

I will gladly lay the 5-points with Orlando at home against the Cavs. This is a great spot to jump on the Magic, who have lost their last two after an impressive 4-0 start to the season. Poor shooting is to blame for both recent losses, as they shot just 35% from the field in a 24-point loss to the 76ers on New Year's Eve and 37% in Saturday's 9-point setback to the Thunder. 

This is a team that averaged a solid 120.3 ppg in their 4-0 start and shot 48% or better from the field in 3 of those games. I'm confident Orlando gets back their stroke in this one. 

As for the Cavs, they have surprised some people by starting out 4-2. Two of those wins have come against bad teams in the Hornets and Pistons. They did beat the 76ers, but Philly was playing on no rest and rested Embiid. Their most recent win over the Hawks was also misleading, as Atlanta was on no rest after laying it all on the line in their previous two games against the Nets. Give me the Magic -5! 

40* NUGGETS/WOLVES NBA SHARP STAKE (Nuggets -8.5) 

I got no problem laying the big number here with Denver on the road against the Timberwolves. This feels like the ultimate buy low spot for the Nuggets, who at 1-4 have been one of the biggest disappointments early on in the NBA season. 

Given their slow start, we can bank on a max effort here from Denver as they have to feel like this is a must win. Minnesota wasn't going to sniff the playoffs with the roster they brought into the season and are playing right now without their best player in Karl-Anthony Towns. In their last game without Towns they got absolutely destroyed by the Wizards 130-109 and Washington was without Russell Westbrook and hadn't won a game coming into that matchup. 

If we get the kind of effort I'm expecting from the Nuggets, they should win here by double-digits without much problem. Give me Denver -8.5! 

40* OHIO ST/MINNESOTA NCAAB ATS MASSACRE (Minnesota +1) 

I will gladly take the Gophers as a home dog against the Buckeyes. No way should this Minnesota team be getting points at home against Ohio State. This to me just feels like a complete overreaction to what happened in the last game for both of these teams. 

Ohio State crushed Nebraska 90-54 at home, while Minnesota lost 59-71 on the road to Wisconsin. Neither of those results should be all that surprising. The Cornhuskers are the worst team in the conference. The Badgers are one of the best and extremely tough to beat on their home floor. 

We have already seen the Gophers take down Iowa and Michigan State at home in Big Ten play, they also beat a really good St Louis team at home. Ohio State has lost both of their road games to Purdue and Northwestern. Give me Minnesota +1! 

40* ALABAMA/TENNESSEE NCAAB SLAUGHTER (Alabama +10) 

I'll take my chances here with the Crimson Tide +10 at Tennessee. The Volunteers are 7-0 and off a dominant 73-53 win over a ranked Missouri team and I believe it has resulted in quite a big overreaction by the books with the line here against Alabama. 

It would take a red-hot shooting performance for the Crimson Tide to win this game, but with the way they can score, I don't think it's asking a lot for them to keep it within 10 points. Alabama has really only had one bad showing and that was a 18-point loss to Stanford early. They have since beat quality teams like Providence and Ole Miss. They also lost by just 8 to a really good Clemson team on a neutral floor and did so despite going just 3 of 22 (13.6%) from long distance. Give me Crimson Tide +10! 

40* PURDUE/ILLINOIS NCAAB STEAMROLLER (Illinois -8) 

I got no problem laying single digits with the Fighting Illini at home against the Boilermakers. I'm just not all that impressed with Purdue. Outside of a 7-point win at home against Ohio State there's not a lot to get excited about. Also, the Boilermakers are a team that can surprise people at home, but so much has to go right for them to be competitive on the road. 

In their two Big Ten road games they lost by 15 to Iowa and that was with the Hawkeyes having one of their worst offensive games of the season. They also just lost by 5 at Rutgers with the Scarlet Knights down some key players to injury. 

Illinois got off to a bit of a slow start with 3 losses in their first 8 games, but all of those were against top tier teams in Baylor, Missouri and Rutgers. All 3 were also played away from home. Fighting Illini come in having won their last two and I look for them to cruise to a victory here. Give me Illinois -8! 

40* KINGS/ROCKETS NBA ATS MASSACRE (Rockets -4.5) 

I played on the Rockets -5.5 in Thursday's home game against the Kings and came up painfully short, as Houston ended up winning by just 3. Normally I would look to take the team that lost the first meeting in these back-to-back games against the same opponents, but I just feel the price here is too good to pass up with Houston. 

John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Eric Gordon all made their season debuts in that game on Thursday and while Cousins didn't do a lot, Wall scored 22 with 9 assists and 6 boards. Gordon came off the bench and put up 17 points. This is going to be a lethal offense as they get more and more comfortable with each other. I just don't think the Kings can keep pace offensively in the rematch and there's no reason for Houston to not show up with a 1-2 record. Give me the Rockets -4.5! 

40* LSU/FLORIDA NCAAB SHARP STAKE (LSU +1.5) 

I will back LSU at basically a pick'em on the road against the Gators. This Tigers team has been impressive to start the season. LSU features one of the most lethal offensive attacks in the country. The Tigers have scored at least 77 points in every game they have played. They are 5th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 8th in effective field goal percentage. 

Florida is a good team that comes in at 4-1 with their only loss on the road to a good Florida State team. However, the Gators lost arguably their best player, Keyontae Johnson, in that loss to the Seminoles. They were able to win their first game in blowout fashion without hi, but that came against a bad Vanderbilt team that is extremely weak on the defensive side of the ball. I just think we are another game or two away before the books make the proper adjustments on this Florida team without Johnson. As long as LSU doesn't have an awful shooting game here, they should win rather comfortably. Give me the Tigers +1.5! 

40* MISSOURI/ARKANSAS NCAAB EARLY BIRD NO-BRAINER (Missouri +7) 

I think we are getting a steal here with Missouri as a near double-digit dog on the road against Arkansas. It's easy to see why this line is off as we are getting a big overreaction to the Tigers 20-point (53-73) loss at home to Tennessee. That was just a bad game for Missouri, who got blitzed out of the gate and could never recover. Not to mention that's an elite Volunteers team. 

Arkansas enters this game a perfect 9-0 and as impressive as that may appears, it's come agaisnt the 284th strength of schedule. The Razorbacks have played just 1 team in the Top 100 and that's Auburn. They did beat the Tigers by 12, but also gave up 85 in the process. Missouri will be the best team they have faced and I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Tigers won this game outright. Give me Missouri +7! 

40* LAKERS/SPURS NBA STEAMROLLER (Spurs +7) 

I'll take my chances with San Antonio covering the 7-point spread at home against the Lakers. These two teams played each other in San Antonio on Wednesday, which LA won 121-107. Not a big surprise given that game was played on LeBron's birthday. 

I just have a hard time seeing the Lakers being all that interested in the rematch on New Year's day. These regular-season games just don't mean that much to this team. On the flip side of this, the Spurs are going to be locked in for this game. I don't know if they will be able to pull off an outright win, but I'm confident they keep it respectable and cover this number. Give me San Antonio +7! 

40* MARSHALL/LA TECH NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Marshall -1) 

I will back the Thundering Herd at basically a pick'em on the road against Louisiana Tech. I've really been impressed with Marshall early on. They are 6-1 and their only loss came in OT at home against a Toledo team that is ranked in the Top 100 at KenPom. This hot start is no surprise. Marshall returned a lot from last year team, which really took off in the 2nd half. 

Louisiana Tech only returned 1 starter, but have managed to start out the season 7-2. However, it's a very misleading record, as the Bulldogs have 6 wins against teams that are ranked 293rd or worse at KenPom. Their best win is a 6-point victory over No. 162 UT Arlington. Marshall is No. 82. The only team they have played in the Top 100 is LSU and they got annihilated 86-55. Much like LSU, Marshall likes to play fast and are lethal on the offensive side. Give me the Thundering Herd -1! 

40* KINGS/ROCKETS NBA SHARP STAKE (Rockets -5) 

I'm willing to roll the dice with Houston as a mere 5-point home favorite against the Kings. Not a  lot of positives coming out of the Rockets camp early on this season. They got the James Harden drama, as well as a Covid outbreak. They just lost by 13 at Denver in their last game, the same Nuggets team the Kings have already beat twice. I'm sure that will have convince some to take Sacramento here, but not me. 

Rockets will be getting back 3 of their best players in Eric Gordon, John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins. Both Wall and Cousins have made it clear they are out to prove something this year and while James Harden might be a headache, he's averaging 39 ppg and 12.5 apg thru the first two contests. I also think people are sleeping on the addition of Christian Wood, who is averaging 27 ppg and 8 rpg. Give me the Rockets -5!  

40* UTAH/UCLA NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (UCLA -7) 

I got no problem laying the points with UCLA at home against Utah in Thursday's Pac-12 matchup. The Bruins haven't played since losing to Ohio State on Dec. 19th. I believe the long layoff came at a good time for Mick Cronin's team and with them coming off a loss to snap their 5-game winning streak, I'm expecting a fired up UCLA team tonight. 

Bruins only other loss was in their season opener at San Diego State, who is turned out to be much better than anticipated. They have played 4 games at home and all 4 have come by at least 9 points, including wins over Cal and Marquette. 

Utah is 4-1, but they really haven't played anyone. Three of their wins are against 3 awful teams in Idaho St, Utah Valley and Idaho. All at home. They did beat Washington by 14 at home in their season opener, but the Huskies are 1-6 with a 15-point loss to UC Riverside and a 8 point loss to Montana. The best they have played is BYU and they lost 64-82 on the road. UCLA is better than BYU. Give me the Bruins -7! 

40* 76ERS/MAGIC NBA ATS NO-BRAINER (Magic +3)

I will gladly take the points with the Magic at home against the 76ers. Orlando is locked in to start the season. They were not happy about the lack of respect they were getting and while they aren't an elite team, they are very talented and effort can get you a long way in this league. 

I just have a hard time buying the 76ers being all that interested for this game. Philadelphia is coming off a huge win over the Raptors that they stole away from Toronto late. Sitting at 3-1 and this being New Year's Eve, I got a good feeling the 76ers will be eager to just get this game over with and get back home, where they will play 3 straight after an off day tomorrow. Give me the Magic +3! 

40* MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN NCAAB ATS SLAUGHTER (Wisconsin -8.5) 

This is going to seem like a big number for the Badgers to be laying in this on. Wisconsin just lost their last game at home to Maryland 64-70 as a 7.5-point favorite. That was a Terps team that was winless in Big Ten play. Now they are an even bigger favorite against a Minnesota team that comes in having won 3 straight, over St Louis, Iowa and Michigan State. The line here really tells you everything. 

The big thing to note with those 3 straight wins for the Gophers is all 3 came at home. The Gophers only road game (haven't played any on a neutral court) was at Illinois back on Dec. 15 and they lost that game 65-92. 

I just think Minnesota is walking into a death trap here against a pissed off and motivated Wisconsin team coming off a loss. Give me the Badgers -8.5! 

40* BC/NC STATE NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Boston College +9.5) 

I really like the value here with Boston College as a near double-digit dog against the Wolfpack. NC State is coming in off a big win over in-state rival North Carolina last time they took the floor, but they almost blew that game, winning by 3 after leading by as many as 17 in the 1st half. The only other team they have played in the Top 230 at KenPom is St Louis and they lost by 11, giving up 80 to the Billikens. 

Boston College comes in with a record of just 2-5, which is where the value with this line stems. However, the Eagles have played the 12th toughest schedule in the country so far. Out of their 5 losses, 4 have come against teams who are currently ranked in the Top 30 at KenPom. The other was a mere 3-point loss to a good St. John's team. They took Villanova down to the wire losing by just 9 and took Minnesota to OT on the road in a 5-point loss. This is a game they can win outright. Give me the Eagles +9.5! 

40* BUCKS/HEAT NBA ATS NO-BRAINER (Heat +6) 

We played and won easily with the Bucks -5.5 in yesterday's 144-97 blowout win on the road over the Heat. You could see how much that game meant to Milwaukee after Miami knocked them out of the playoffs in the bubble. It didn't help the Heat were without Jimmy Butler. I know he's questionable to play tonight, but even if he doesn't suit up, I like Miami in the rematch. 

I just think the roles have been completely flipped in this second meeting. It's now the Heat who are going to come out with a chip on their shoulder. As for the Bucks, it's going to be hard for them to take that same approach to this game after how easily they won last night. There's a reason the books have set almost the exact same line for this game. Give me the Heat +6! 

40* NOTRE DAME/VIRGINIA NCAAB STEAMROLLER (Virginia -5.5)

I got no problem laying the 5.5 with Virginia on the road against Notre Dame tonight. I think this is the perfect spot to jump on the Cavaliers as a short favorite, as we can bank on a huge effort from Virginia coming off that embarrassing 23-point loss (75-98) loss to Gonzaga.

You just can't read into a loss like that, as Gonzaga looks like they are by far the most complete team right now. This is still an extremely talented Cavaliers team that are once again elite defensively and got some pretty good options on the offensive side of the ball. 

Notre Dame has played some quality teams tough, losing by 10 to Michigan State, by 5 to Ohio State, by 10 to Duke and by 10 to Purdue. I just don't think any of those teams are on the same level as Virginia. I just don't think the Irish are strong enough defensively to beat a team like the Cavs who are so tough to score on. Give me Virginia -5.5! 

40* BUCKS/HEAT NBA TNT NO-BRAINER (Bucks -5.5) 

I will take my chances here with Milwaukee as a 5.5-point road favorite against the Heat. There's a lot of reasons to like the Bucks in this one. For starters, Miami won't have their best player on the floor, as Jimmy Butler has been downgraded to doubtful with an ankle injury. 

This is also a big game for Milwaukee after losing 2 of their first 3 games, including an ugly 20-point loss at New York in their most recent game. Bucks also will be out for revenge, as Miami was the team that knocked them out of the playoffs in the bubble back in September. Give me Milwaukee -5.5! 

50* FLORIDA ST/CLEMSON NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Clemson -1.5) 

I think we are getting a steal here with Clemson at basically a pick'em on their home floor against the Seminoles. The betting public doesn't see it that way. All they see is the No. 18 team getting points against an unranked opponent, which is why I feel there is so much value. 

I don't know why Clemson isn't ranked to be honest. The Tigers are 6-1 with 4 quality wins over Mississippi State, Purdue, Maryland and Alabama. The only loss coming by 6 points on the road to Virginia Tech and that was just a bad shooting night, as they were just 38% from the field. 

If KenPom had a say they would be ranked, as they are the No. 20 in their rankings. Florida State would also be ranked, but they have them at No. 25. Factor in home court and the elite level defense that head coach Brad Brownell has this team playing and I feel they win here easily. Give me the Tigers -1.5!  

50* ROCKETS/NUGGETS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Nuggets -6.5) 

I'm probably going to avoid playing Denver a ton early on, as I just think the Nuggets came into this season a little overvalued off their run to the Western Conference Finals in the bubble. With that said, this is one spot I'm willing to back them. 

This is a really big game for Denver after starting out the season 0-2 and both of those losses coming at home. We should get their very best in this game. As for Houston, I think people see the Rockets covering the big number at Portland with all those guys out and are quick to grab the points here. That is a Blazers team that lost by 20 at home to the Jazz in their opener. 

The other big thing here is you have a depleted Rockets team with all those guys out with Covid protocols playing their second road game in 3 days in the thin air of Denver. This to me feels like a spot where Houston really has trouble matching the intensity of the Nuggets and if the outside shots don't fall it could get real ugly. Give me Denver -6.5! 

40* NETS/HORNETS NBA NO-BRAINER (Nets -8.5) 

I got no problem laying the big number on the road here with Brooklyn against Charlotte. The Nets have been arguably the most impressive team out of the gate, as they completely destroyed the Warriors 125-99 in their opener and then backed that up with a 123-95 win on the road against the Celtics. I really think this is the team to beat in the Eastern Conference if they stay healthy. 

As for the Hornets, they are 0-2 having lost 114-121 at Cleveland and 107-109 at home to Oklahoma City, two teams that don't figure to sniff the playoffs this year. On top of that, Charlotte's game against the Thunder was yesterday, so they will be playing this game on no rest. There's going to come a time when Brooklyn might look past a team like the Hornets, but I don't think that's going to be the case here. Give me the Nets -8.5! 

40* DRAKE/INDIANA ST NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Indiana St +4) 

I think the line here tells you everything you need to know that the Sycamores are the play. Drake comes into this game with a perfect 9-0 record and have also gone a perfect 6-0 in their games with a line posted. The betting public won't be able to help themselves with the Bulldogs laying a short number against a Indiana State team that is 3-2 with a couple of double-digit losses to Purdue and St Louis. 

The thing is, Drake has played a cupcake schedule to start the season. In fact, the Bulldogs strength of schedule at KenPom ranks a mere 311th. The only team they have played that's ranked in the Top 215 at KenPom is Kansas State and they are awful. Drake is going to suffer that first loss sooner rather than later and I actually think they should be a dog in this matchup. Give me the Sycamores +4! 

40* 76ERS/KNICKS NBA ATS STEAMROLLER (Knicks +9) 

The Knicks are another team that I was impressed by in their opener. I know they ended up losing and failing to cover in a 121-107 loss to the Pacers, but there's was a lot of positives in that game. New York scored 66 points in the 1st half and led by 5. If not for a dreadful 3rd quarter that final score would have been much closer. 

R.J. Barrett looked like he's really worked on his game. He was 11 of 15 (3-3 from 3), scoring 26 points with 8 boards and 5 assists. Tom Thibiodeau is the new head coach and he's going to at the least get this team to play hard. 

Philadelphia is a hot commodity after bringing in Doc Rivers, but you never know what you are going to get with this team on the road. I certainly wasn't blown away in the 76ers 113-107 win against the Wizards in their opener, as they needed a 40-24 edge in the 4th quarter to win that game. Give me the Knicks +9! 

40* HAWKS/GRIZZLIES NBA SLAUGHTER (Hawks +1.5) 

There's been a few teams that have really impressed me early on in the NBA. One of those is the Hawks and I just don't think as many people are on the Atlanta hype train yet. The public isn't going to get excited about the Hawks beating the Bulls on the road. 

The thing is, they didn't just beat Chicago. They annihilated them. They won the game 124-104 and that doesn't do justice to how lopsided the matchup was. Atlanta had 83 points at the half, scoring 42 in the 1st quarter and 41 in the 2nd quarter. This Hawks team made some big time additions in the offseason to go with their talented core. After finishing with the 2nd worst record in the east, this is 100% a playoff team if they stay healthy. 

I like Ja Morant and will be on this Memphis team down the road, but right now they are missing two huge pieces in Jaren Jackson Jr and Justice Winslow. As good as Morant is, he needs those two for this team to compete with the better teams. Give me the Hawks +1.5! 

40* OHIO ST/NORTHWESTERN NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Northwestern +3.5) 

I'll take the points with Northwestern at home against Ohio State. The Wildcats have shocked everyone with their 2-0 start to Big Ten play. First they destroyed Michigan State 79-65 at home as a 8.5-point dog, then on just two days rest went on the road and upset Indiana 74-67 as a 9-point dog.

I get we aren't getting near double-digits this time around, but I really think the Wildcats should be favored at home in this one. Ohio State is 7-1, but I still got my concerns with this team. I think they are good, but not as good as what their record and ranking would suggest. They lost by 7 on the road to Purdue in their Big 10 opener and needed a crazy 2nd half run to come back and beat Rutgers at home. Give me the Wildcats +3.5! 

40* CLIPPERS/NUGGETS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Clippers -2) 

I really like the Clippers as a small road favorite against the Nuggets in the Christmas Day finale. There's few teams that wanted this season to start more than the Clippers after their collapse in the bubble. Not only that, but there's a whole new energy with this team after parting ways with Doc Rivers. 

The Clippers couldn't have asked for a better schedule to start their season. They get to open it up against the Lakers and spoil their ring celebration and now on Christmas Day they get their chance at revenge against the Nuggets, who they blew that 3-1 lead against.

I like this Denver team, but they didn't look right in their opener. Nuggets lost at home to the Kings and I think some of that is them not quite ready to start the new season. Give me the Clippers -2! 

40* WARRIORS/BUCKS NBA NO-BRAINER (Warriors +10.5)

I'll take a shot here with the Warriors at this price. Most are going to run to the ticket window to fade Golden State after what they saw in their opener against the Nets. I get it. That was not what a lot of people were expecting from this team with Curry back in the mix. 

Head coach Steve Kerr called out the will to win after that game and that's a big part of why I like Golden State in this game. I just feel confident we are going to get a 10 out of 10 in terms of effort. We should also see better shooting from the Warriors. Given how much they rely on the 3-ball, they aren't winning many games going 10 of 33 (30.3%) from long distance. Expect more 3-pointers to fall against a Bucks team that gave up 18 3's to the Celtics

I also think we could get Milwaukee a bit flat here. They saw how bad the Warriors looked and have to think they can win this game without trying. On top of that, they used up a lot of energy playing from behind the majority of that game against Boston. I think the Bucks win, but GS keeps it close. Give me the Warriors +10.5! 

50* MARYLAND/PURDUE NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Purdue -5) 

My favorite play on Christmas Day is the Purdue Boilermakers as a mere 5-point home favorite against the Terps.  Great spot to back Purdue off a 15-point loss at Iowa. While they didn't come close to covering, I thought the Boilermakers played well in a tough spot on the road. They are just not a team built to upset an elite team like the Hawks away from home. 

Things should be much easier for Purdue at Mackey Arena on Friday against a Maryland team that isn't anywhere close to what it's been in recent years. Terps got off to a strong 4-0 start against a cupcake schedule, but then lost by 16 at Clemson and by 14 at home to Rutgers. I just think like Purdue, it's going to be hard for Maryland to be competitive on the road against the majority of the teams in the Big Ten. Give me the Boilermakers -5! 

40* W ILLINOIS/DEPAUL NCAAB SLAUGHTER (DePaul -15.5) 

I think we are getting a bit of a steal here with DePaul as they just now playing their first game of the season. Coming off a 16-16 season where they went just 3-15 in Big East play isn't exactly something to get excited about. But I like the direction this program is headed and I think they got some nice new pieces that could have them taking a big step forward. 

One thing is for sure, they are going to be itching to get on the floor for this game. The effort that we can expect should be enough on it's own for them to cover this spread against Western Illinois, who is currently the 338th ranked team at KenPom. The only legit team the Leathernecks have faced is Iowa and they lost by 41 points. It's really not asking much for DePaul to win here by 20. Give me the Blue Demons -15.5! 

40* PURDUE/IOWA NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Iowa -6.5) 

I will take my chances here with the Hawkeyes making easy work of Purdue at home in their Big Ten opener. I'm not concerned with Iowa coming off that crushing loss to Gonzaga. I know it wasn't the outcome they wanted, but there were some positives. Iowa lost to the No. 1 team by only 11-points, despite shooting 4 of 22 (18%) on 3-pointers and going 14 of 26 (54%) from the free throw line. 

I just think there's enough of a veteran presence on this team that they aren't going to let that loss carry over into their conference opener, especially at home. Purdue is a good team, but just aren't built to compete with an offensive juggernaut like the Hawkeyes. Give me Iowa -6.5!

50* LOUISVILLE/PITT ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Louisville -3) 

This is an easy play for me on the Cardinals as a slim 3-point favorite at Pittsburgh. I love backing good teams off a bad performance and Louisville definitely falls into that situation after getting absolutely destroyed on Saturday in a 48-85 loss to Wisconsin. 

One thing to keep in mind in that ugly showing against the Badgers, is Louisville was without their best players in senior Carlik Jones. He's the one guy they can't do without. He leads the team in scoring (17.3 ppg), rebounding (7.0 rpg) and assists (5.3 apg). He's going to be back for this one and that should be enough for them to win this game on the road against Pitt. 

The Panthers are 5-1 and just beat Miami by 15 at home in their ACC opener. That was however a misleading victory, as the Hurricanes have been decimated with injuries. While Pitt is slowing improving, I don't think they can handle a locked in Cardinals team. Give me Louisville -3! 

40* CINCINNATI/UCF NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (UCF +2.5) 

There's just no way Cincinnati should be laying points on the road in this one. This is a rebuilding year for the Bearcats after all the talent they lost and it's shown in their play so far. Cincinnati has lost 3 straight and are just 1-4 to start the season. They just lost at Georgia by 15 as a 1.5-point favorite. I just feel like the books are slow to adjust to this team. 

As for UCF, the Knights are coming off their second statement win in 3 games. UCF started out the season with a 63-55 win at home against Auburn. They got their butts kicked at Michigan, but just won on the road against FSU 86-74 as a 14.5-point dog. UCF has a go-to scorer in senior Brandon Mahan and are getting big time production out of sophomore Darin Green and freshman Isaiah Adams. 

Free throw shooting could be the difference in this one. Cincinnati is shooting just 63.4% as a team from the charity line, while the Knights are 85.7%. Bearcats are also shooting just 25% from behind the 3-point line, while UCF is at 36%. Give me the Knights +2.5! 

50* SAN JOSE ST/UTAH ST NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Utah State -18.5) 

I have high expectations for Utah State in the Mountain West this year and I'm confident the Aggies will be locked in for their conference opener tonight against San Jose State, who is right there with Air Force as the worst team in the league. 

Utah State is just 3-3, but two of those defeats came on a neutral court to quality teams in VCU and South Dakota State. The other is a mere 3-point loss to a very good BYU team. San Jose State has played one team that's even respectable and that's St. Mary's. The Spartans lost that game by 35 points (trailed by 40+ with less than 3 minutes to play), giving up 96 to the Gaels. I just don't think it's asking much for the Aggies to win this one by 20 at home. Give me Utah State -18.5! 

40* E WASH/N ARIZONA NCAAB ATS STEAMROLLER (E Washington -10.5) 

I played on Eastern Washington as a 9-point dog in their last game against St. Mary's and they covered easily in a 5-point loss. The Eagles could have easily won that game outright. They had as big as a 9-point lead in the 2nd half on the road. 

However, the loss dropped Eastern Washington to 1-4 on the season and that's definitely playing into the Eagles showing value here against a Northern Arizona team they should handle with ease. Keep in mind the first 3 losses for Eastern Washington all came on the road against Pac-12 teams in Washington St, Arizona and Oregon. Both losses to the Cougars and Wildcats came by just 3 points. 

While they lost by just 3 to Arizona, their opponent today, Northern Arizona, lost to the Wildcats by 43 (96-53). The Lumberjacks have also lost by 24 to UC Riverside and by 39 to Colorado State. Those are the only 3 games they have played. I just think a desperate Eastern Washington team is going to easily win here by 11 or more. Give me the Eagles -10.5! 

40* CHATTANOOGA/UAB NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (UAB -11) 

We played on UAB in their last game against Southern as a mere 15-point favorite and they went on to win that game by a final score of 88-46. They have played 7 games and won 6 of those by 20 points. This team started out ranked 115th in KenPom and are up to 88. They have won and covered every game the books have set a line and I don't know how you don't keep riding this team, especially with a favorable line like we have here. 

In my analysis on UAB against Southern I mentioned how much I loved the hire of head coach Andy Kennedy and even more so the talent he inherited and brought to town. 

Kennedy took over a UAB team that returned their top 3 scorers from last year in guards Tavin Lovan (13.2 ppg), Jalen Benjamin (11.9 ppg) and Tyreek Scott-Grayson (10.0 ppg). He then went out and added two Top 50 rated grad transfers in Michael Ertel and Quan Jackson. The only non-power 5 program to land two such grad transfers ranked in the Top 50. They also added 7'0 big man Trey Jemison, who has been a force for the Blazers. Jemison is averaging 9.5 ppg 8.5 rpg and a staggering 3.7 blocks/game. 

One of the reasons we are getting value here is because Chattanooga enters the game with a perfect 7-0 record. However, it's not that impressive when you take a closer look. The Mocs have played one game against a team ranked in the Top 200 at KenPom and that is No. 198 ranked Middle Tennessee, who is 2-4 with losses to Nebraska-Omaha and E Tennessee St. Give me UAB -11! 

40* HOFSTRA/ST. BONAVENTURE NCAAB SHARP STAKE (St. Bonaventure -11.5) 

I waited and waited for the Bonnies to take the floor for the 2020-21 season and cashed a winning ticket on them in their 81-74 win against Akron on Tuesday. I will fire right back with St. Bonaventure on Saturday at home against Hofstra. 

Right now the Bonnies are No. 72 in Kenpom, but I see them as way better than that. This is a team that returns all 5 starters from a 19-win team. They got 3 guys who can carry the load offensively if needed. In the win over Akron, Osun Osunniyi led the way with 25 points, but they also 18 from Dominick Welch and 17 from Kyle Lofton. 

One thing to note about that win and cover against the Zips is they did that despite going a dreadful 1 for 14 from behind the 3-point line. While they aren't going to light teams up from deep, they are a much better 3-point shooting team than that and I think playing at home compared to a neutral site will help in a big way here. 

Hofstra is 3-2 but I haven't been all that impressed with what I've seen from the Pride. Their 3 wins are against Fairleigh Dickinson, Stony Brook and Monmouth. Two of those wins were by single digits. Hofstra also lost by 28 last year (73-45) in a visit to the Bonnies. Give me St Bonaventure -11.5! 

40* N COLORADO/UTAH ST NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Utah State -11.5)

I think we are getting a great price here with Utah State as a mere 11.5-point home favorite against Northern Colorado. The Aggies come into this game with a mere 2-3 record, but all 3 losses have come against quality teams in VCU, South Dakota State and BYU. They only lost by 3 to BYU and do have a nice 11-point win over UNI on their resume. 

The Bears enter this game at 3-1, but it's a very misleading 3-1 record. Two of those wins are against non-DI opponents in Colorado Christian and Regis. The other is against Denver by 8 and they are ranked 322nd in KenPom. The only decent team Northern Colorado has faced is Colorado and they lost that contest by 36 points (45-81). 

Utah State is not only the better team, but they have a big edge here in rest. Aggies had some Covid issues and as a result haven't played since last Tuesday (Dec. 8). The Bears on the other hand are playing their 3rd game this week as they played at Colorado on Monday and at Denver on Wednesday. Give me the Aggies -11.5! 

50* KANSAS/TEXAS TECH NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Texas Tech -3) 

I will gladly lay the short number here with the Red Raiders at home against the Jayhawks. I was shocked when this line opened at close to a pick'em and still see plenty of value at this price. Head coach Chris Beard has turned Texas Tech into an elite program. Last year they had to replace a lot and ended up going just 18-13 with a 9-9 mark in the Big 12. One thing to note is that all 13 losses were to teams who finished in the Top 100 of KenPom's rankings, 4 were in OT and their largest loss was by 12 points. 

I expect the Red Raiders to jump right back into that same category of a Final 4 contender that they were the previous two years. Red Raiders got talent coming back, added in some great talent from the transfer portal and got two stud freshmen that are already making an impact. 

Kanas is always a good team and they 6-1 with their only loss to Gonzaga, but they were never really in that game against the Bulldogs. Their two best wins over Kentucky and Creighton came by a combined 4 points and we saw this team only beat North Dakota State by 4 on their home floor. I just think Tech is the better team. Give me the Red Raiders -3! 

50* MEMPHIS/TULANE AAC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Memphis -10.5)

I think this is the perfect spot to fade the Green Wave. Tulane is getting quite a bit a love here after their 4-0 start, but those 4 wins have come against Lamar, Lipscomb, Southern Miss and Arkansas Pine Bluff. Lamar is ranked No. 289 and is currently 1-5. They only beat them by 9. They beat Lipscomb by 2, who is 3-5 with wins over Lamar, No. 328 SE Miss St and a non-DI school. They did beat Southern Miss by 20, but they are No. 307 with their only D-1 win coming against Lamar. They beat Ark Pine Bluff by 11 and they are No. 350 and 1-7. 

I get Memphis hasn't been quite as dominant as we thought they would be. Tigers are 4-3, but those 3 losses have all come to quality teams in WKU, VCU and Auburn. They were competitive in all 3. I just think the talent gap is much bigger than what this number would suggest. Give me Memphis -10.5! 

40* PITTSBURGH/MIAMI NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Miami +2) 

We have seen Miami go from a favorite to a dog in this game against Pitt and I just think there's too much value here with the Hurricanes as a home dog against what I think is a pretty overrated Pitt team. 

Miami will be missing some key players, but they also will be adding in Stony Brook transfer Elijah Olaniyi, as the NCAA is expected to announce later today that all transfers will be immediately eligible to play. More than enough talent with Olaniyi to beat the Panthers and I think we get a big effort here with people doubting the short-handed canes in this one. 

Pitt is 4-1, but their only win against a team ranked inside the Top 150 of KenPom is Northwestern and I'm not so sure the Wildcats are all that great. Pitt's other 3 wins are against Drexel, Northern Illinois and Gardner Webb. Not to mention their lone loss came by double-digits to a St Francis team that is ranked No. 258 at KenPom. Give me Miami +2! 

40* NEB-OMAHA/COLORADO NCAAB STEAMROLLER (Colorado -21.5) 

I got no problem laying the big number here with the Buffaloes. Colorado comes in at 3-1 with their only loss on the road against Tennessee, who looks like one of the best teams in the country. In their other 3 wins they have won by 23 over South Dakota, by 18 over Kansas State (outscored Wildcats 67-36 after falling behind 22-9) and most recently a 36-point win over Northern Colorado on Monday. 

While this will be their second game in basically 48 hours, they didn't have to use much energy in their last game. No starter played more than 30 minutes and only senior McKinley Wright logged more than 22 minutes. Colorado should have no problem getting back up and making easy work of the Mavericks. 

Nebraska-Omaha is just 2-5 and have struggled to keep it close when they have played better teams. The Mavs lost by 27 at Creighton and by 45 at Kansas. They also lost by 21 at Drake. I just don't think it's asking much of the Buffs to win here by 22. Give me Colorado -21.5! 

40* E WASH/ST. MARY'S LATE NIGHT CBB BAILOUT (Eastern Michigan +9) 

If you don't know much about these two teams, you might think this line is way off, as you have a Eastern Washington team that is 1-3 with their only win against a non-DI opponent as a mere 9-point dog against a St Mary's team that is 6-1 and riding a 6-game winning streak since losing their opener to Memphis. 

The big thing to note with the Gaels is each of their last 4 wins have come against teams ranked outside the Top 175 in KenPom. On the flip side of this, Eastern Washington's 1-3 start is a result of their schedule.

All 3 of their losses came on the road against Pac-12 teams in Washington St, Arizona and Oregon. They only lost by 3 to both the Cougars and Wildcats. They did loe by 17 to the Ducks, but were only down 4 at the half and had to play that game on just 1 day of rest after facing Arizona. 

I not only think the Eagles can keep it close enough to cover, but I give them a good shot here of winning the game outright. Give me Eastern Washington +9! 

50* SE LOUISIANA/TEXAS A&M NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Texas A&M -21.5) 

I really like the value here with Texas A&M covering as a big home favorite against SE Louisiana. This is a huge mismatch in terms of talent. The Lions come into this game at 1-5 with some really ugly losses. They lost by 53 to LSU and 25 to UAB. The only two teams they have played ranked inside the Top 100 in KenPom. 

They are 327th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 311th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They also like to play fast, which aids to them getting blown out by such big numbers, as they rank 62nd in tempo. 

Texas A&M had started out 3-0, but were just embarrassed in their last game at TCU, losing 55-73 to the Horned Frogs. I think that's aiding in the favorable number we are getting and it also should have the Aggies more locked in for this game than they would have been otherwise. Give me Texas A&M -21.5! 

40* APPALACHIAN ST/TENNESSEE NCAAB NO-BRAINER (Appalachian State +19) 

I played and won on Appalachian State in their last game at Charlotte, as the Mountaineers won outright 61-57 as a 4-point dog. I mention in the analysis of that game how much I like this team, especially head coach Dustin Kerns. 

Last year in his first season on the job. Appalachian State surprised everyone going 18-15 with a 11-9 mark (6th) in Sun Belt play. A huge improvement from the year before when they finished 11-20 and 6-12 in conference play. 

Turning around a program is nothing new for Kerns. In his previous stint at Presbyterian, he took a program that has never been competitive to a real force. He took over a team that finished 5-25. In his first year they improved to 11-21 and in year two they went 20-16. Last season without him they dropped back down to 10-22. 

I believe this team is more than capable of hanging around with the Volunteers and covering this big number. Tennessee is a really good team, but this is a bit of a flat spot off two big games against Colorado and Cincinnati to start the year. While they won both of those games, they only scored 54 against the Buffaloes and 65 against the Bearcats. Some of that low scoring is how they play, as they rank 294th in adjusted tempo. That slow pace only favors App State covering this big number even more. Give me the Mountaineers +19! 

50* MARQUETTE/UCLA LATE NIGHT *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (UCLA -4) 

I love the value here with the Bruins laying a short number at home. I had a feeling this line was going to drop with the public being drawn to Marquette as most still have questions over how good this UCLA team is after watching them lose by 15 to San Diego State and need 3OT to beat Pepperdine. 

It's not uncommon for teams to come out a bit sluggish. I think UCLA has got some of those kinks worked out. They also didn't have one of their better players in junior Jalen Hill for both games against SDSU and Pepperdine. 

The other big thing I like here with going against Marquette is that the Golden Eagles played all 5 of their games so far at home. Not only is this their first road game, but this quite a long distance for them to travel. I just think it's a really tough spot for them. Give me UCLA -4! 

40* N FLORIDA/E CAROLINA NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (East Carolina -13.5)

This is a vastly improved East Carolina team. The Pirates have started out the season 4-0 and while the competition hasn't been the stiffest, this North Florida team will be the worst D-I opponent they have faced this season. 

North Florida is 0-6 and in their last two games have lost to High Point and FAU, who are both ranked outside the Top 200 in KenPom. East Carolina is sitting at No. 116. 

Ospreys have been awful on the defensive end. They are 348th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They don't force turnovers and give up offensive rebounds at a very high rate. They also foul a lot, as opponents are attempting 22 free throws a game against them.  All things that will allow the Pirates to create the separation needed to cover this spread. Give me East Carolina -13.5! 

40* OKLAHOMA/XAVIER NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Oklahoma +1) 

I'm really high on the Sooners this year and will gladly take them at basically a pick'em on the road against what I feel is a pretty mediocre Xavier team. I played and cashed on Oklahoma in each of their first two games against UTSA and TCU. Sooners have one of the best players in the country in Austin Reaves, who currently ranks as the 6th best player in KenPom's rankings. 

Xavier enters this game at 6-0 and I definitely feel like that's playing into the value with Oklahoma. Musketeers could easily be just 3-3. They beat Bradley by 1, Toledo by 3 and needed OT to get past Eastern Kentucky. All of those came at home. They did just beat Cincinnati by 8, but I'm way down on the Bearcats this year. The wrong team is favored in this one. Give me Oklahoma +1!

40* INDIANA/FLORIDA ST NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Florida St -3) 

I know the Big Ten absolutely owned the ACC last night, but I can't help myself with Florida State as a mere 3-point home favorite against Indiana. It feels like every year people sleep on Leonard Hamilton's team and I think that's the case again. Everyone sees the talent FSU lost to the NBA, but that's nothing new. This team reloads way better than they get credit for. 

What I love here in this matchup is the Seminoles have incredible size and talent inside, led by 6-9 freshman Scottie Barnes, 7-1 sophomore Balsa Koprivica and 6-8 junior Raiquan Gray. I think that size will be the key in this one, as Indiana has really relied on scoring inside so far this year. Hoosiers are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country early on. This matchup really reminds me a lot of Indiana game last week against Texas, which they got absolutely destroyed 66-44. Give me the Seminoles -3! 

50* NCAAB NON-CONF PLAY OF THE MONTH (Furman +3.5) 

A lot of people will probably look at this line and want to take Cincinnati as a small home favorite, but that's only because they aren't aware of how good this Furman team is. The Paladins are 4-0 and while they haven't played anybody to this point, they have absolutely dominated the competition. All 4 wins have been by no fewer than 24 points. 

Not a huge surprise when you look at the fact that Furman returns 4 starters from a team that went 25-7 last year. This is without question the team to beat in the Southern Conference and it would be a shock if they didn't make the NCAA Tournament. 

As for the Bearcats, they are way down from last year's team that won 20 games and finished T-1st in the AAC with a 13-5 league mark. Cincinnati lost 3 big pieces from that team in Jarron Cumberland, Jaevin Cumberland and Tre Scott. Head coach John Brannen was quoted saying "We flipped the roster...This, to me, was always going to be a transition year." 

While the Bearcats have only played two games, they barely got by a bad Lipscomb team 67-55 (trailed by 9 in the 2nd half) and lost to a pretty mediocre Xavier team this past Sunday at home. Give me Furman +3.5! 

40* BC/MINNESOTA NCAAB ATS STEAMROLLER (Boston College +7) 

This is the perfect time to buy low on Boston College. The Eagles come into this game with a 1-3 record and are fresh off an ugly 20-point loss to Florida on a neutral floor. That was just a bad game for the Eagles and it continued quite the gauntlet to start the year, as their 3 previous were against Villanova, Rhode Island and St. John's (all 4 opponents rank in the Top 80 in KenPom). 

As for Minnesota, they are 4-0, but have played quite an easy schedule. They two wins over teams ranked 250 or worse (Green Bay and North Dakota). The other two wins are against Loyola-Marymount, who is ranked 137th. I just don't think there's anywhere close to the gap in talent that this line suggests. Give me Boston College +7!  

40* NCAAB NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (UC-Santa Barbara -3) 

I will gladly take my chances with the Gauchos as a slim 3-point home favorite against Loyola-Marymount. I just think we are getting a good price here with UC-Santa Barbara because their only game has come against a non D-I opponent in Saint Katherine, while the Lions are off a 24-point win and cover against Long Beach State and played Minnesota tough twice. 

There's plenty to like about the Gauchos, as they bring back 4 starters from a team that won 21 games last year. This definitely looks like the most talented team in the Big West. Love their experienced playmakers in the backcourt and they aren't short on size in the post. I just think this is a steal getting them at this price. Give me UC-Santa Barbara -3! 

40* OKLAHOMA/TCU NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Oklahoma -3.5) 

I played on Oklahoma in their opener against UTSA. Sooners were a mere 15-point favorite in that matchup and went on to win by a final score of 105-66. I just don't think that was any fluke. The Sooners far exceeded expectations last year and are even stronger this year. They aren't just a good Big 12 team, they are one that can compete with the big boys of Baylor, Kansas, Texas and West Virginia. 

I just don't see them losing here on the road to TCU. Sooners won both meetings last year, including a 20-point blowout victory in the first meeting. Both times Oklahoma's offense put up big numbers, scoring 83 and 78 points. Sooners are even stronger, while the Horned Frogs look to be down a notch from last year. Give me Oklahoma -3.5! 

40* MISSOURI/WICHITA ST NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Missouri -4.5) 

I just think the price is right to take a shot with Missouri at -4.5. I just see these two teams headed in different directions. The Tigers are poised for a breakout season with one of the most experienced teams in the country. They were a much better team than the one that went just 15-16 last year. I think we saw that in the Tigers last game, as they beat Oregon 83-75 on a neutral court. 

Wichita State had all those guys leave via transfer after last season and then came the departure of head coach Greg Marshall right before the season. I just think because the Shockers are such a big brand in CBB they are going to be overvalued early on. 

Their only game was this past Wednesday against Oral Roberts and while they won, they did so by a final of just 85-80. Just so happens that's also the same team Missouri opened the season against back on Nov. 25. Tigers beat Oral Roberts 91-64. Give me Missouri -4.5! 

40* NCAAB LATE NIGHT ATS BAILOUT (Auburn -10)

I think this is a great buy low spot on Auburn as a mere 10-point favorite against South Alabama. I know the Tigers aren't expected to be a huge threat this year, but there's plenty of talent on this team and they got a legit head coach in Bruce Pearl. We can bank on a big effort here coming off back-to-back losses to Gonzaga and UCF and no game on the schedule until next Saturday. South Alabama is 3-1, but have two wins against non-D1 teams. Their only D1 win is a mere 2-point win over FAU and they lost to Jacksonville State at home. Give me Auburn -10! 

50* NCAAB MID-AMERICAN (MAC) PLAY OF THE MONTH (Toledo -2.5) 

I think we are getting a steal here with Toledo as a slim 2.5-point favorite against Eastern Michigan. For starters, the Rockets are picked to finish near the top of the MAC standings, while the Eagles are picked to be in contention for one of the worst teams in the league. 

Toledo comes in at just 2-2, but their two losses are two quality teams in Bradley and Xavier. Both games they could have easily won, as they lost by 2 to the Braves and by just 3 to the Musketeers. 

While the Rockets have 4 games under their belt, Eastern Michigan has played just one game and that was last Wednesday against Michigan State. The Eagles did manage to cover as 22.5-point dogs in a 16-point loss, but it really felt like the Spartans were toying with Eastern Michigan. I definitely think not playing for more than a week is a disadvantage this early in the season. I also think that cover against Mich St has them getting a little too much love here. Give me Toledo -2.5! 

50* NCAAB NON-CONF PLAY OF THE MONTH (UCLA -19.5) 

This feels like the perfect spot to buy low on UCLA. The Bruins haven't exactly impressed in their first two games. They opened the season getting destroyed by San Diego State 73-58. They then needed 3OT to get past Pepperdine 107-98. It has a lot of people hesitant to lay a big number with the Bruins against Seattle, but I think they not only cover it, but cover rather easily. For the first time this season UCLA will have Jalen Hill on the court. They also might get their first action out of Kentucky transfer Johnny Juzang. With their first conference game on deck Sunday against Cal, Bruins will be motivated here to show out. Give me UCLA -19.5! 

40* COLLEGE HOOPS SHARP STAKE (Oklahoma -15) 

I think this is too good a price to pass up with Oklahoma. Sooners have yet to take the court this season and I think that's playing into the favorable number. Oklahoma just seems to always get overlooked in the Big 12. No one was giving them any shot of making the tournament last year and they won 19 games and were on the bubble to make the field. This is a much better team than they had a year ago. As for UTSA, they are 1-1. Their win was against Texas Permian Basin. They lost to UT Rio Grande Valley by 17. A team that was ranked 224 in KenPom going into that matchup. These two programs have played each other each of the last 3 seasons and all 3 ended in Oklahoma wins by more than the number here. Give me the Sooners -15! 

50* BALL ST/MICHIGAN *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ball State +15.5) 

I will gladly take 15.5 points with Ball State against Michigan. I just don't know how the Wolverines can be this big a favorite against a quality Cardinals team after needing overtime to beat an awful Oakland team. The same Oakland team that lost by 52 to Xavier to open the season and the next game after Michigan lost by 43 to Purdue. Most will say that the Wolverines didn't show up for that game against Oakland. If they are as good as they say, they should have beat Oakland by 20 with their "C" game. Give me Ball State +15.5! 

40* PROVIDENCE/ALABAMA NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Alabama -2) 

We cashed on Alabama last night as they came alive from behind the 3-point line in a 86-74 win over UNLV. When the Crimson Tide hit their shots from deep with the pace they play at, they are extremely tough to beat. As for Providence, I expected more out of the Friars to start this season. I just don't think they are that good. They beat a bad Fairfield team and then got routed by Indiana, who looked awful against Texas. As long as the Tide don't go ice cold we should cash easy. Give me Alabama -2! 

40* ST. JOHN'S/BYU NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (St. John's +1.5)

I made the mistake going against St. John's against BC. I won't make that mistake here against BYU. No way should the Red Storm be a dog against the Cougars. BYU started out 3-0 against a bunch of cupcakes. They finally played a good team last night in USC and got annihilated 79-53. I just don't see BYU being able to keep pace with St. John's. You got to be able to score against the Red Storm and that press attack. Give me St. John's +1.5! 

40* UNLV/ALABAMA NCAAB SLAUGHTER (Alabama -10) 

We cashed in Alabama in their opener against Jacksonville State, as they won by 24 as a 21-point favorite. Definitely had to sweat it out, but we shouldn't have. Crimson Tide shot just 7 of 31 (23%) from deep. They again couldn't buy a bucked from long distance in yesterday's loss to Stanford, going just 7 of 29 (24%) in a lopsided 82-64 loss. 

I think that setback will serve as a wakeup call for the Crimson Tide and have them 100% locked in here against a mediocre UNLV team. Rebels have allowed 44.7% shooting from deep in their first two games. Have to like Alabama getting on track here. Rebels allow 84.5 ppg and are only averaging 64.5 ppg. I just think we are getting a nice little discount on Alabama in this one. Give me the Crimson Tide -10! 

40* S DAKOTA/NEBRASKA NCAAB NO-BRAINER (Nebraska -13) 

I believe we are getting quite the discount with Nebraska. While Cornhusker fans are still waiting on football head coach Scott Frost to make them relevant again, I think we could be in for a breakout year for Nebraska under second year head coach Fred Hoiberg. 

As he did in his time with Iowa State, Hoiberg has hit the transfer portal extremely hard for a quick fix. I know it's early, but it looks like he's worked his magic in Lincoln. Dalano Banton (WKU), Teddy Allen (W Virginia), Lat Mayen (TCU), Trey McGowens (Pitt), Shamiel Stevenson (Pitt) and Kobe Webster (W Illinois) are the new faces. Banton, Allen and Webster all scored in double figures of their loss to Nevada. 

That game against the Wolf Pack really showed me something. I see no reason why Nebraska can't have their way with South Dakota, who in it's first two games have lost by 23 to Colorado and by 16 to Drake. Coyotes have really struggled to score and that doesn't figure to change in this one. Give me Nebraska -13! 

50* TEXAS/INDIANA EARLY BIRD *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Indiana -2) 

I cashed the UNDER in the Indiana/Providence game yesterday and I came away really impressed with what I saw out of that Hoosiers team. No one was really giving this Indiana team much respect coming into the year. Hoosiers weren't ranked and picked by many to finish in the bottom half of the Big Ten standings. 

I see a team to watch out for. Indiana did return 4 starters from a team that won 20 games. Beat a lot of good teams, just couldn't win on the road (a lot easier to do this year with no fans). They got a star Trayce Jackson-Davis and what looks like one of the more improved players in the conference in Race Thompson. This team just made a good Providence team look really bad. 

No disrespect to Texas, who I think is going to be a force in the Big 12, but I just don't know if they are as good as people think. They just barely held on to beat Davidson 78-76 and the stat that really stood out to me is they allowed the Wildcats to shoot 78% (21-27) on two-point shots. They also only blocked 1 shot. That tells me their defense is really lacking inside and that's a problem against this Indiana team. Give me the Hoosiers -2! 

50* TEXAS ST/MISSISSIPPI ST NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Miss St -6.5)

I think we are getting an exceptional price here on the Bulldogs as a single-digit favorite against the Bobcats. Mississippi State comes in 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS, which has definitely created this buy-low spot. I was on Clemson in their opening loss and wasn't shocked they fell to Liberty, who has shown on multiple occasions it can hang with the middle of the pack in the Power 5. 

It's also important to note that while Mississippi State lost and failed to cover in each of their first two, they were in both of those games and could easily be 2-0. Texas State has played no body. If anything there's reason to be pessimistic with them only beating Texas A&M CC by just 12 points. I look for the size and athleticism of the Bulldogs to be too much for the Bobcats to handle. Give me Mississippi State -6.5!

40* LOYOLA MARYMOUNT/MINNESOTA NCAAB STEAMROLLER (Loyola Marymount +14) 

This is an interesting situation that I feel presents some value with the underdog. Minnesota and Loyola Marymount will be playing against each other for the second time in 3 days, as these two played each other on Friday at Minnesota. There's a Covid rule with the state that only allows the Gophers to play one opponent at home over a 3-day stretch, so that's why they are playing the Lions again. 

This situation presents itself in the NBA and there's usually value with the team who lost the first meeting. It makes sense. It will be tough for Minnesota to get up for this game having already beat this same team a couple days ago. As for Loyola, they should be fired up for this one. The Lions more than proved to themselves that they can hang with this Gophers team. They only lost by 15 and that was with Minnesota shooting over 50% from behind the 3-point line and Loyola -8 in the turnover department. Give me the Lions +14! 

40* ST. JOHN'S/BC NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Boston College PK)

I think we are getting a great price here with Boston College at only a pick'em against St. John's. The Red Storm are 2-0, but have been far from impressive with a mere 76-75 win over St. Peter's and a 82-65 win against La Salle. Both of which rank outside the Top 150 for me. 

BC is a team I had my eye on coming into this year and while they are just 1-1 to start, they have looked the part of a team on the rise. The Eagles gave Villanova all they could handle before eventually losing by 9 (67-76). They put that loss behind them and the very next day beat a good Rhode Island team 69-64. 

I also think turnovers could play a big role in this one. St John's has not taken great care of the ball, as they are averaging 18 turnovers/game. A mark that's high given the talent they have played. Eagles only average 12.5 turnovers. Give me the Eagles PK! 

40* COLORADO/K-STATE NCAAB NO-BRAINER (Colorado -5) 

I got no problem laying 5-points on the road with Colorado against a bad Kansas State team. The Wildcats were the worst team in the Big 12 a year ago and figure to remain in the basement of the conference this season. They certainly looked the part of a bottom feeder in their opener, as they lost at home to Drake by double-digits. The Buffaloes easily have the best player on the floor in senior guard McKinley Wright IV. He had 20 in Colorado's 23-point win over South Dakota in their opener. I look for the Buffs to really control this game from the start. Give me Colorado -5! 

40* UTAH ST/UNI NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Northern Iowa -2.5) 

Really tough loss with UNI yesterday, as they were in control the majority of that game and blew in the last few minutes. That's not going to stop me from taking them as a small favorite here against Utah State. I just don't see the Panthers starting out 0-3, especially against this Aggies team that has not been competitive in it's first two games. Utah State lost by 16 to VCU on Wednesday and by 24 yesterday to South Dakota State. Aggies allowed both teams to shoot over 50% from the field. I really think this line should be closer to double-digits. Give me UNI -2.5! 

40* UNI/ST. MARY'S NCAAB STEAMROLLER (Northern Iowa -1) 

I really like the value here with UNI at basically a pick'em against St. Mary's. Both teams lost their opener yesterday. The Panthers fell 87-93 to WKU, while the Gaels suffered a 73-56 loss at the hands of Memphis. 

I think St. Mary's is getting a bit of a pass for their lopsided loss because it came against a good Memphis team, but that game was never close. I also think the Gaels are overvalued coming off their great season last year. 

Keep in mind that St. Mary's lost their two best players in Jordan Ford and Malik Fitts. Ford led the team with 21.9 ppg and Fitts was second best at 16.5 ppg. No other player averaged in double-figures. They also lost 3rd leading scorer tanner Krebs. Those 3 combined to make 204 3-pointers. The rest of the team accounted for 72. No surprise the Gaels went just 1-18 from deep against memphis. 

UNI returns two All-Conference players out of the MVC and are one of the favorites to win that conference. They are going to have a massive edge from deep in this game. They were 20 of 39 from behind the 3-point line against a very good WKU team that should win C-USA. Give me the Panthers -1! 

50* NCAAB OPENING DAY *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Clemson -3.5) 

I will gladly lay a short number here with Clemson against Mississippi State. I just feel like the Bulldogs are primed to take a step back, while the Tigers are a team that is trending up in the ACC. 

Mississippi State won 20 games last year, but lost two studs in Reggie Perry and Robert Woodward. Both of which were taken recently in the NBA draft. Perry averaged 17.4 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 1.2 bpg. Woodward averaged 11.4 ppg, 6.5 rpg and 1.1 bpg. These are two guys that impacted the game on both sides in a big way. Perry was 6'10 and Woodward was 6'7. Hard to find big guys with that much talent when you aren't bringing in 5* recruits. 

As for Clemson, they went just 16-15 last year, but it was better than most expected. Tigers only had 1 starter back and had 3 key guys go down to injury. That to me is a sign of great coaching and some underrated guys on the roster. 

With 4 starters back and those guys that missed time a year ago, this is a Clemson team that could and should make the NCAA Tournament. Give me the Tigers -3.5! 

40* NCAAB OPENING DAY NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Alabama -20) 

Alabama was a team I was on quite a bit last year and one that I like a lot going into this season. While The Crimson Tide did lose a NBA 1st round draft pick in Kira Lewis, they have 4 starters returning and have made some key roster moves. 

Head coach Nate Oats inherited a roster that was meant to play traditional with 2 bigs, but he's more of a small ball guy that wants to push the pace and play just one big who can run, shoot and defend. He got rid of guys that didn't fit and added guys that do. I think we could see Alabama play even faster this year. 

I don't think Jacksonville State has the slightest idea of what they are about to be up against. The Jaguars only went 13-19 last season and lost 4 of 5 starters from that team. With the pace of play that Alabama plays at, I think the margin here could get out of hand. Give me the Crimson Tide -20! 

40* HEAT/LAKERS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Heat +5.5)

I did not see this series making it this far. I no longer think it's a lock that the Lakers win this series. LeBron just did everything in his power in Game 5 to end this thing and he was simply outdone by Jimmy Butler. I know the guy is superhuman and all, but he looked a bit drained at the end of Game 5. That's a problem. Anthony Davis is not 100% with that foot injury and it feels like he's one wrong step from being sidelined for the rest of the series. 

That's now 3 straight games in this series that have come down to the wire and Miami has won 2 of those. The Heat definitely have the momentum going into Game 6. All the pressure is on James and the Lakers. I'm really hoping Miami wins here to force a Game 7 and this price is just too good to pass up. Give me the Heat +5.5! 

40* HEAT/LAKERS NBA FINALS VEGAS INSIDER (Heat +7.5) 

I just feel that there's too much value here with Miami at +7.5 to pass up a play on them in Game 5 against the Lakers. After how bad LA played in Game 3, I really expected a more dominating performance in Game 4. It was anything but, as the Heat could have easily won that game. 

With a comfortable 3-1 lead in the series, can we really trust the Lakers to lay it all on the line in this game? We know Miami is going to do everything in their power to send this to a Game 6. I don't know if they will, but I think they have shown enough to feel confident they can keep this thing within 7 points. Give me the Heat +7.5! 

50* HEAT/LAKERS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Lakers -7) 

Props to the Heat for not just laying down and letting the Lakers win in a sweep. However, I'm not buying into Game 3 being some kind of indicator that Miami now has a chance to make this a series. 

That was 100% the Lakers not showing up to play (at least everyone not named LeBron). Anthony Davis only attempted 9 shots and posted a ridiculous -26 +/-. The other three starters outside of James, combined for 11 points on 3-13 shooting. 

The Heat ended up winning by 11, but that was just a 5-point game going into the 4th. For LA to play that poorly and have a shot is bad news for Miami. Not to mention Jimmy Butler went off for 40 points, 13 assists and 11 rebounds. No way he repeats that statline. 

I fully expect to see the LA team that dominated both Game 1 and Game 2 tonight. Give me the Lakers -7! 

50* HEAT/LAKERS NBA FINALS NO BRAINER (Heat +10) 

I just want to start out saying I had the Lakers -5 in Game 1. I was not surprised in the least bit that LA dominated the opener. No way LeBron was going to let them lose that game. 

Why am I switching to Miami for Game 2 after the Heat just lost Adebayo and Dragic (both listed as doubtful)? For me it's the psychology of this game. If you are the Lakers and you just dominated a team like they did and see that they are going to be down two starters, it's going to be really hard to take this Miami team seriously. 

If you are the Heat, no one is giving you a fighting chance in hell to not only make a series of it, but most think they are going to get swept. They got nothing to lose. They are going to give every little thing they have in this game to get a win. 

Will it be enough? It wouldn't shock me if they won (will likely sprinkle a little on the ML). I just think if there's a game LA is going to go through the motions, it's this one. Asking to win by 10 in this spot is asking quite a bit. 

One last thing with Miami, there's no question the injuries to Adebayo and Dragic are big, but with how well Kendrick Nunn played at the end of Game 1, I don't see a big drop off there. Kelly Olynyk and even Meyers Leonard are capable of producing for Adebayo. I also wasn't big on Adebayo in this series with all the size of LA. It was and is going to come down to Miami's 3-point shooting. I'm counting on them to get hot tonight. Give me the Heat +10

50* HEAT/LAKERS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Lakers -5) 

I will gladly lay the 5-points with the Lakers in Game 1. I wasn't shocked that the Heat were able to take out the Bucks and Celtics. Those were great matchups for Miami. I just don't think they are going to be able to generate the same kind of offensive production against this Lakers team. 

Los Angeles has the bigs that can keep Adebayo in check with Howard and AD. They also got a guy by the name of LeBron to lock down Jimmy G in the 4th quarter (when Miami needs him the most). 

You also have to look at how Boston was able to repeatedly build double-digit leads against this Heat team. The Lakers are not the Celtics when it comes to playing with a lead. LA knows how to finish. I think the Heat can make a series of it with their shooting, I just don't see LeBron and company losing this game. Give me the Lakers -5! 

40* LAKERS/NUGGETS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Lakers -6) 

I was mad at myself for laying the points with LA in Game 3. That was your typical go through the motion game for the Lakers and they did just that for 3 quarters. They tried to turn it on late, but it was too late. 

I'm confident we get that 4th quarter Laker team from the start in Game 4. I think there's even more incentive for LA to win here, knowing Miami is up 3-1 in the Eastern Conference. AD had two rebounds in Game 3, which tells you how locked in he was. Lakers role players also shot the ball poorly, while Denver's guys had career nights. Give me the Lakers -6! 

40* CELTICS/HEAT NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Heat +3.5) 

I cashed on Boston in Game 3. It looked good for the Celtics in their first game with Hayward back in the mix. There's definitely something to Boston getting these big leads against the Heat, but I also don't think Miami has played close to their best. They were a dreadful 27.3% from deep in Game 3. 

I just think the extra days of rest benefit Miami more. I also still think the Heat are the better team. Watching Boston try to close out a game is dreadful. They just don't know how to share the ball. It's almost like they try to take turns making plays instead of just taking the open shot. Give me the Heat +3.5! 

40* NUGGETS/LAKERS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Lakers -6.5) 

I'm going to lay it with the Lakers in Game 3. Not only are we getting the best price on LA in the series, but I think this is a good spot to fade Denver. Most will be wanting to grab the points with the Nuggets after the Lakers needed a 3-pointer at the buzzer to win Game 2. 

Thing is that's a gut-wrenching way to lose a game. Denver desperately needed that game to even up the series 1-1, to have a lead late and lose on a buzzer-beater is tough to swallow. On the flip side, Lakers got away with not playing their best and getting a win. They have shown no interest in letting teams hang around in the playoffs and it's no different here. Give me the Lakers -6.5! 

40* CELTICS/HEAT NBA NO-BRAINER (Celtics -3) 

I'm going to fire back with Boston in Game 3. This is it for the Celtics. They don't win this one, they are down 0-3 and can start packing their bags to get out of the bubble. It would be one thing if Miami had dominated the first two, but Boston has built up big leads and just not been able to hold on. 

There's been reports about things not being all great in the Celtics locker room. I'm not buying it. I think if anything it will serve as something they can rally around. Boston might not be able to make this a series, but I have to believe they deliver with their season on the line. Give me the Celtics -3! 

40* HEAT/CELTICS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Celtics -2) 

I played and won with the Heat as a small dog in Game 1, but I will fire back with Boston in Game 2. It didn't look great for Miami in the majority of Game 1. They trailed by 8 after the 1st quarter and were down 12 going into the 4th quarter. Jimmy Butler hit two crazy shots or the Celtics probably win that game. 

I look for Boston to build up another big lead in Game 2, expect this time they hold on for the win. Celtics are one of the best at defending the 3-pointer and Miami shot a scorching 44.4% from deep in Game 1. I think Boston makes some defensive adjustments and tired legs could come into play after all those minutes in Game 1. Give me the Celtics -2! 

40* HEAT/CELTICS NBA SHARP STAKE (Heat +1.5)

I really like the Heat as a dog in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Celtics. I know Boston has had three days off since that grueling Game 7 win over the Raptors, but I still think they could have a bit of a letdown going from a Game 7 to a series opener. 

Not to mention the Heat have looked the part in the playoffs. They didn't just upset the best team in the East in Milwaukee, they made them look bad. I love the depth of this Miami team and they are an outstanding 3-point shooting team. 

These two teams met up in the bubble 8-game restart for seeding and Miami won that matchup 112-106. They shot 12 more free throws, were +5 in 3-pointers made and took better care of the ball. Give me the Heat +1.5! 

40* CELTICS/RAPTORS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Celtics -2.5)

I have been pretty spot on with the series (stayed away in Game 6) and there's just no way I'm not playing the Celtics at -2.5 in Game 7. I strongly believe that Boston is the better team. They really should have already won this series. Toronto won Game 3 on a 3-pointer with 0.5 seconds left and then should have lost in Game 6 if the refs call a clear foul at the end of regulation. 

Boston has won the big games in this series, as they have never trailed. I also think both teams will be running on fumes and that hurts the Raptors a little more, as they rely more on the 3-point shot. Give me the Celtics -2.5! 

40* ROCKETS/LAKERS NBA NO-BRAINER (Rockets +5) 

I'm taking the points with Houston in Game 4. The Rockets have been tied or had the lead going into the 4th quarter of all 3 games so far. They got outscored in the 4th quarter by 10 points in both Game 2 and Game 3. Houston could easily be leading this series. 

LeBron and AD have been great, but outside of Rondo, the Lakers just don't have a lot of fire-power. Rondo was great in Game 3, but I got some concern with him going forward. I just wonder how good the legs are with all that time he missed. I don't see him going off for 20+ in back-to-back games. 

I really think Houston is going to find a way to win this game. They can't continue to be that bad in the 4th quarter and we could see a bit of a letdown from LA after that big win to take a 2-1 series lead. Give me the Rockets +5! 

40* CLIPPERS/NUGGETS NBA STEAMROLLER (Clippers -8) 

I'm going contrarian in Game 4 between the Nuggets and Clippers. Everyone was all over LA after they annihilated Denver 120-97 in Game 1. That tune has changed after the Nuggets took Game 2 and gave the Clippers all they could handle in a loss in Game 3. 

I just think LA is playing with the Nuggets. They have came out sluggish in both Game 2 and Game 3 and really turned it on in the 2nd half. In Denver's 110-101 win in Game 2, they held held the Nuggets to just 38 2nd half points. They held them to 19 in the 4th quarter of their Game 3 win. 

I not only think this is the game that the Clippers give us a full 48 minutes of their best, but I also think the Nuggets have to be wondering what they have to do after playing so well and still losing Game 3. 

Jokic played out of his mind and they couldn't win. As for Jamal Murray's struggles, that's 100% the effects of Beverley and this LA defense. I don't see him having one of those games like he did against the Jazz. Give me the Clippers -8! 

40* HEAT/BUCKS NBA SHARP STAKE (HEAT -4) 

Props to Milwaukee for not going down without a fight and winning Game 4, despite losing Antetokounmpo in the 2nd quarter. You just never know how a team will respond down 3-0 and it's why I stayed clear of that game. 

I just feel like this is where the Heat close the door and move on to the Conference Finals. I know Giannis is listed as questionable, but if you aren't able to come back in an elimination game, I don't know how you play two days later. Even if he does suit up, he's clearly not 100%. 

At the same time, I think Miami will have a much better game plan for Khris Middleton, who went off for 36 in Game 4. Not to mention Butler didn't play great down the stretch in Game 4. All of that and Milwaukee stilled need OT to pull out the win. Give me the Heat -4! 

40* CELTICS/RAPTORS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Celtics -1) 

I'm sticking with Boston in Game 5. The Celtics didn't come through for me in Game 4 and for whatever reason it just didn't look like Boston showed up with the right mindset. Maybe it was the 2-1 series lead or maybe it was the shock of how they lost Game 3. 

The team that wins the series almost always takes Game 5 and I still think Boston is the better team. What people overlook in Game 4, is Boston played pretty bad and yet still had a shot to win that game. They were a miserable 7-35 (20%) from deep, Kemba and Smart were non-factors offensively and Brown shot 4 of 18 (2-11 3-pts). Thing with Brown is a lot of those were wide-open shots. It's not the Raptors defense. I just think Boston delivers in this spot. Give me the Celtics -1! 

40* ROCKETS/LAKERS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Lakers -5.5) 

I'm willing to roll the dice that LeBron has the Lakers looking a little different than what we saw in Game 1. Much like their LA rivals in the Clippers, the Lakers have a tendency to let their guard down. I think they expected a more wore down Houston team after they just played a Game 7 against OKC. 

That wasn't the case. Houston was the more aggressive team. I wonder though if the Rockets can sustain that into Game 2. Would be really easy for them to be content with a 1-1 series if things get bad early. Either way I'm confident that the Lakers intensity level will be up a few notches. I also think we get a big game from someone other than LeBron or AD after the role players were a big no show in Game 1. Give me the Lakers -5.5!

50* RAPTORS/CELTICS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Celtics +1) 

I'm shocked the Celtics are a dog in Game 4. It makes no sense. If Anunoby doesn't hit a 3-pointer with 0.5 seconds left, Boston has a 3-0 series lead. I was on the Raptors in Game 3. I just expected more from them with their backs against the wall down 0-2 in the series. 

I get Toronto was a better 3-point shooting team than what they have been in this series, but we are now 3 games into this thing. Clearly Boston has the scheme/talent to make it difficult on the Raptors to get clean looks from deep. 

Let's also not overlook the fact that Toronto barely won with Boston's best player, Jason Tatum, having a bad game. Tatum was just 5 of 18 from the field and finished with 15 points. 

Tatum had a similar bad game in Game 3 against the 76ers, scoring just 15 points on 6 of 19 shooting. Next game he went 10 of 18 for 28 points. I think he bounces back and Boston wins this one rather easily. Give me the Celtics +1! 

50* ROCKETS/LAKERS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Lakers -6) 

I was kicking myself all night for not making the Clippers a premium play yesterday. Luckily I did have some action on it (check my twitter). We get the Lakers in almost the same exact scenario tonight and at a much cheaper price. 

There's a lot of talk about how the Rockets match up well with LA in terms of the fact that they should have an edge in 3-point shooting. Thing is, the same could have been said of the Blazers. I mean how much better is Harden/Westbrook than Lillard/McCollum. Harden is slightly better than Lillard at best and while Westbrook is the better all-around player, McCollum is the much better shooter. 

After losing Game 1, which wasn't a big shock given LA hadn't played a meaningful game in forever, the Lakers dominated Portland the rest of the way. 

Rockets didn't shoot great in their series with OKC either, so I'm not sure why people are expecting them to just shoot lights out in Game 1. Especially, given how gassed they have to be after playing a Game 7 two days ago. Give me the Lakers -6! 

40* BUCKS/HEAT NBA STEAMROLLER (Bucks -5)

Before this series even started I picked the Heat to win it. I just think the value here is with Milwaukee in Game 3. The Bucks have one of the best players in the NBA and were one of the best teams in the regular-season. 

Their season is on the line tonight. They lose this game and go down 3-0, they are done for. I just think they are going to bring a different level of intensity and fight to Game 3 than Miami. I think there's some big positives in the fact that the Bucks were in Game 2, despite shooting just 43.5% from the field and only making 7 of 25 3-pointers. Give me Milwaukee -5! 

40* RAPTORS/CELTICS NBA VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Raptors -1) 

I played and won on the Celtics in both Game 1 and Game 2, but I'm going to reverse course and take the Raptors to win and cover in Game 3. Boston was pretty fortunate to win Game 2. They trailed by 8 going into the 4th quarter. Raptors had just 9 points in the 4th quarter with just over 4 minutes to play. 

Toronto simply couldn't buy a 3-pointer, going just 11 of 40 (27.5%). That was the difference in the game. They had 25 assists to the Celtics 18 and were +5 in the turnover department. 

I don't think the Raptors can win this series, but I like them with their backs against the wall. You know they are laying it all on the line to avoid falling behind 3-0 (series is all but over if they lose). Boston on the other hand is sitting comfortable up 2-0 and having yet to lose in the playoffs. Give me the Raptors -1! 

50* CELTICS/RAPTORS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Celtics +1.5) 

I can't believe Boston is a dog in Game 2. I get Toronto being favored in Game 1, but after what we saw in Game 1, it's pretty clear who the better team is. It's also not like it was anything new either. Celtics have had the Raptors numbers this season. They destroyed them in the bubble 8-game restart very similar to Game 1. 

Celtics have the best player on the floor in Tatum and are simply more talented from top to bottom. I just don't see any kind of letdown here for Boston against the defending champs. Give me the Celtics +1.5! 

40* THUNDER/ROCKETS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Thunder +6) 

I'm going to go down swinging with OKC. As bad as the Thunder looked in Game 5, you can't overreact to that. We saw them get beat pretty bad in Game 1 and Game 2. They bounced back and won the next two. I think the long layoff helped Houston a little more. OKC also has to get more out of Gallinari, Gilgeous-Alexander and Schroder. Gallinari didn't make a shot, Gilgeous-Alexander scored 4 points and while Schroder had 19, he was ejected in the 3rd quarter. Give me the Thunder +6! 

40* NUGGETS/JAZZ LATE NIGHT BAILOUT (Jazz -2.5) 

I came into this series liking the Nuggets, but I think it's pretty clear after watching these teams play that Utah is the better side. Two games the Jazz lost they led in the 4th quarter. Utah has shot 50% or better from the floor in each of the last 4 games. Denver has no clue what to do defensively. I also think some of the Game 5 loss was Utah a bit too relaxed coming off 3 straight wins with a 3-1 series lead. They finish the job tonight. Give me the Jazz -2.5! 

40* CELTICS/RAPTORS NBA STEAMROLLER (Celtics +2.5) 

I was high on this Celtics team coming into the season and I'm confident they win this series with the Raptors. I got nothing but respect for Toronto, but I think this team overachieved a bit this season. Boston has the better talent. Tatum is the best player on the floor. Celtics won 3 of 4 meetings this season, including a 122-100 win in the bubble 8-game restart. Give me the Celtics +2.5! 

40* THUNDER/ROCKETS NBA NO-BRAINER (Thunder +5.5)

I think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction to the line given the news that Westbrook will be making his series debut for the Rockets. I get he's a special talent, but I don't know that Houston is as strong with him. Simply cause he takes away from what they want to do with the 3-ball, as he's simply not a threat from deep. 

I also feel like OKC has kinda figured out the Rockets defense as the series has progressed. I also think they got the scheme and talent defensively to make it hard on Houston. I'm also a big Chris Paul fan and I got a feeling he's going to play well in this one after all that's went down with the boycotts. Really think OKC has a good shot of winning this game. Give me the Thunder +5.5! 

50* ROCKETS/THUNDER NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Rockets -3) 

I love Houston to cover the small spread in Game 4. The Rockets were so close to have a commanding 3-0 series lead, as they had a 5-point lead with less than a minute to play. The proceeded to two turn it over twice and House missed a free throw with less than 10 seconds to play that would have given them a 1-point lead and likely the win. 

I just feel Houston is the better team, even with Westbrook sidelined. Dort has done a great job on Harden these last two games, but he still scored 38 in Game 3. Rockets were also just 15 of 50 (30%) from behind the 3-point line. It wasn't just great defense, Houston missed a lot of shots they normally make. I think a few more fall in Game 4 and they pull away late for the win and cover. Give me the Rockets -3!