|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|04-03-21||Houston +5 v. Baylor||Top||59-78||Loss||-109||19 h 58 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - Final Four *PLAY OF THE YEAR* on Houston +5
I feel like I'm in the minority here, but I love the Cougars catching 5-points against Baylor in the Final Four. Not only do I think Houston matches up well with the Bears, but the line to me screams bet Baylor.
No one is giving Houston a chance to win this game. All anyone is talking about is how it's going to be Gonzaga/Baylor in the title game. The betting public isn't going to hesitate laying 5-points with the Bears, as they just assume they are going to win and winning by 6 isn't asking a lot. I'm not saying it's a lock, but whenever you have a massive public play with a line that don't look right in a game of this magnitude, the dog usually cashes.
As far as the matchup is concerned, Baylor is a team that really relies on the 3-ball. They are the best in the country in 3p% offense at KenPom. Defending the 3 is a strength of the Cougars, which is no surprise given their length and athleticism. Houston's defense is giving up an average of 5 3-pointers a game, with opponents shooting just 28.3% from deep against them. Holding teams to an average of 5 3-pointers in this day an age is absurd.
I think they can take the Bears out of their rhythm offensively. I also think Houston's offense is also better than they get credit for. While they don't shoot it at a crazy good percentage, few teams are better in creating second chances with offensive rebounds. It was 100% the difference in their last game against Oregon State when they had 19 offensive boards. They are averaging 15.5 offensive boards over their first 4 games in the tournament. I think they pull off the upset and win this game outright. Give me Houston +5!
|04-02-21||Lakers v. Kings -4.5||115-94||Loss||-108||13 h 18 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Late Night Bookie SLAUGHTER (Kings -4.5)
I really like the spot and price with the Kings as a mere 4.5-point home favorite. The Lakers are such a big public team that they are still being overvalued even without their two best players in LeBron and AD. LA has failed to cover 6 of their last 7 games. They have shot absolutely horrible during this stretch.
Sacramento is the complete opposite right now, as the Kings are making their playoff push. Sacramento has won 7 of their last 9 and are 6-3 ATS during this stretch. They have really took off since rookie Tyrese Haliburton was inserted into the starting lineup for Marvin Bagley. I just think they win here easy. Give me the Kings -4.5!
|04-02-21||Warriors v. Raptors -1.5||77-130||Win||100||10 h 22 m||Show|
30* (NBA) - Situational No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Raptors -1.5)
I'm going to take my chances with the Raptors at basically a pick'em at home against the Warriors. It's been ugly for Toronto of late, as they have lost 4 straight and 13 of their last 14 overall, but I love the spot here.
The Raptors aren't going to stop fighting to get out of this slump and they couldn't be catching the Warriors at a better time. Golden State, which has lost 5 of 6, will be playing in the 2nd game of back-to-back after visiting Miami last night. The Warriors could also be short-handed here.
I could definitely see the Warriors sitting Steph Curry here, as he just got back from injury. He's already listed as questionable. So is Draymond Green, Kevon Looney, Eric Paschall and Kevon Looney. Give me the Raptors -1.5!
|04-01-21||Nuggets -1 v. Clippers||Top||101-94||Win||100||13 h 34 m||Show|
50* (NBA) Thursday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Nuggets -1)
I love the value here with the Nuggets as a mere 1-point road favorite against the Clippers. Denver is one of the hottest teams in the league, as they have won 12 of their last 15. They have really impressed since acquiring Aaron Gordon in a trade.
I look for the Nuggets to stay hot against an injury-depleted and tired Clippers team. LA will be playing here without Paul George, Serge Ibaka, Patrick Beverly and Rajon Rondo. They also might not have Marcus Morris. That's a tall task to overcome given the Clippers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and 6th game in 9 days. Give me the Nuggets -1!
|04-01-21||Warriors +3 v. Heat||109-116||Loss||-113||10 h 26 m||Show|
30* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Warriors +3)
I will take a shot here with Golden State as a small road dog against the Heat. I just think the books are begging you to take Miami as a small home favorite. The Heat have won their last two and all signs point to Victor Oladipo making his debut in this game.
Thing is, it's not a great spot for Miami, who will be playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back. It's also their 5th game in the last 8 days and the last 3 were all on the road. You also have to keep in mind it's probably going to take some time for Oladipo to build some chemistry with his new teammates.
Warriors have shot 50% or better from the field in each of their last 3 games and just got back Steph Curry in their last game. Give me Golden State +3!
|03-31-21||Knicks v. Wolves +3.5||101-102||Win||100||11 h 30 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Blockbuster Bookie ATS SLAUGHTER (Wolves +3.5)
I will gladly take my chances here with Minnesota as a 3.5-point home dog against the Knicks. Even though New York has won 3 of 4 and the Timberwolves have dropped 5 of 6, I don't think Minnesota should be a home dog in this one.
The Knicks play hard defensively, which is why they are a surprising 24-23 on the season, but wins are going to be real tough to come by if they keep shooting like they have been. New York has scored 106 or fewer points in 6 of their last 7 games and have shot 43% or worse in 5 of their last 6. Minnesota does struggle to defend, but can definitely score the ball and are much stronger offensively with the return of Malik Beasley from his suspension. He gives them 3 legit scoring threats with Karl Anthony Towns and rookie Anthony Edwards. I like them to win this game outright. Give me the Timberwolves +3.5!
|03-31-21||Mavs v. Celtics +1||Top||113-108||Loss||-105||10 h 1 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Wednesday Night *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Celtics +1)
I love the Celtics here as a home dog against the Mavs. While Boston is coming off a 109-115 home loss to the Pelicans, they have covered 4 of their last 6 and showed a lot of fight in that game against New Orleans, nearly erasing a 17-point deficit in the 4th quarter. They did so without the services of Jaylen Brown (questionable to play) and newly acquired Evan Fournier going scoreless on 0-10 shooting.
Dallas comes in off a 127-106 blowout win against the Thunder, but that was to be expected given what OKC is sending out to the court right now. Prior to that win the Mavs had lost by 9 at the Pelicans and by 15 at home to the Pacers. Dallas is just 2-8 ATS last 10 after scoring 125 or more in their last game and 1-6 ATS last 7 off a win by 10 or more. Celtics are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 8-1 ATS last 9 at home off a game where they failed to cover. Give me Boston +1!
|03-31-21||Blazers v. Pistons +7.5||124-101||Loss||-108||10 h 32 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Situational Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Pistons +7.5)
I will take a shot here with Detroit as a decently priced 7.5-point home dog against the Blazers. I just think it's a good time sell high on Portland, who has won 3 straight on the road. Thing is they didn't dominate in any of those games with the largest margin of victory coming by just 7-points.
I think being stuck on the road the last two days and this being their final road game on this quick 4-game trip, might have the Blazers coming out a little flat, especially playing a team like Detroit that isn't perceived to be any good.
Thing is, the Pistons have been playing much better here of late. While Detroit is just 3-7 SU in their last 10 games, they are 7-3 ATS during this stretch. They got a lot of young guys who are not only playing hard but playing well. I think they give the Blazers a run for their money at home tonight. Give me Detroit +7.5!
|03-30-21||Magic +11.5 v. Clippers||103-96||Win||100||13 h 44 m||Show|
40* (NBA) Blockbuster Bookie ATS SLAUGHTER (Magic +11.5)
I will take my chances here with the Magic as a big 11.5-point road dog against the Clippers. I just think we are seeing an inflated line on LAC in this game. The perception with the Magic is they are going to be awful after trading away so much at the deadline. On the other side, the Clippers have won 6 straight and are fresh off a 129-105 blowout win against the Bucks.
The thing is that big win over Milwaukee came last night. I think it makes this a potential flat spot for LA and possibly a game where they sit some guys in the 2nd of a back-to-back.
Orlando is definitely in rebuilding mode, but they aren't just going to lie down for teams. At least not yet. I think those that are left on the Magic or came in via a trade are all playing with a chip on their shoulder. They really should have won their last game against the Lakers as a 7-point dog, but ended up losing by 3. I think they keep it close here. Give me the Magic +11.5!
|03-30-21||UCLA v. Michigan -6.5||Top||51-49||Loss||-105||23 h 10 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - NCAA Tournament ELITE 8 PLAY OF THE YEAR (Michigan -6.5)
I love the Wolverines to cover the 6.5 against UCLA. The Michigan team that I have seen in the NCAA Tournament is the one that had everyone saying they were Gonzaga's biggest threat before they had a long break due to Covid back in late January.
The Wolverines just destroyed a really good Florida State team on Sunday 76-58. What's crazy is they won by 18 and had an awful night from deep (3 for 11, 27.3%) and were uncharacteristically bad from the free throw line (15 of 23, 65.2%....shooting 77.4% on the season).
UCLA is No. 11 in the country in offensive efficiency, but are a mere No. 84 in effective FG%. In comparison, Michigan is No. 7 in offensive efficiency and No. 17 in effective FG%. As far as the defensive numbers, Bruins are No. 54 in defensive efficiency and No. 178 in effective FG% defense. Wolverines are No. 8 in efficiency and No. 7 in FG%.
I just think the Wolverines are the superior team on both sides of the ball. I also love that they are such a good free throw shooting team, as that could definitely come in to play. Another thing is the spot for UCLA off that emotional overtime game against Alabama. Might be tough for them to bounce back from that game on just one day of rest. Give me Michigan -6.5!
|03-29-21||Arkansas v. Baylor -7.5||Top||72-81||Win||100||13 h 40 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - NCAA Tournament 'Elite 8' MAX UNIT Top Play (Baylor -7.5)
I got no problem laying the 7.5-points with Baylor in Monday's Elite 8 showdown with Arkansas. I was on the Razorbacks against Oral Roberts and that was clearly a mistake. Arkansas was lucky to win that game and now will be lucky to keep it close against a far superior Bears team.
For the majority of this season it was Gonzaga and Baylor and then everyone else. It's looking like we were right all along. The Bulldogs and Bears have looked like the two best teams. I thought Villanova was going to give Baylor a run for their money and while they kept it respectable, they still lost bye double-digits. I think Villanova was a better team than what they will see here with Arkansas.
I also don't think we have seen Baylor play their best in the NCAA Tournament. They certainly haven't shot the ball up to their potential. With how Arkansas struggles to defend the 3-point line and all the guys Baylor has that can shoot the 3-ball at a high rate, I think this might be the game where everything clicks. Give me the Bears -7.5!
|03-29-21||Mavs -9.5 v. Thunder||127-106||Win||100||11 h 51 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Mavs -9.5)
I will take my chances here with the Mavs laying the big number on the road against the Thunder. The biggest thing here is OKC has made it clear that they are looking to future and it doesn't help matters that their best player, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is out with an injury. In their last game against the Celtics they only managed 94 points on 41% shooting in a 17-point loss.
Big key here is I don't see the Mavs not taking this one seriously. Dallas needs this game after dropping their last two and they are expected to get back Luka Doncic after he missed their last two games. Mavs have also gone 21-9 ATS last 30 as a road favorite and are outscoring teams in this spot by 9.2 ppg. I wouldn't be surprised if Dallas had this line covered by the half. Give me the Mavs -9.5!
|03-28-21||Magic +7 v. Lakers||93-96||Win||100||13 h 36 m||Show|
40* (NBA) Public Money ATS NO-BRAINER (Magic +7)
|03-28-21||UCLA +7 v. Alabama||88-78||Win||100||10 h 7 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - NCAA Tournament 'Sweet 16' BOOKIE SLAUGHTER (UCLA +7)
I will take the points with UCLA against Alabama. I'm a big Nate Oats fan and have been on this Crimson Tide team a lot this year, but this just feels like they are being asked to lay too many points. It's been pretty obvious the Pac-12 was better than we thought. The thing is the books have just not wanted to adjust their numbers on them.
We saw this yesterday. I thought the books were setting a trap making Oregon State another big dog against Loyola and they won outright again. I'm not making the same mistake here. UCLA is not going to be intimidated by Alabama and let's not overlook the Tide's easy path to the Sweet 16 with games against Iona and Maryland. I know it was in December, but Alabama lost by 18 to another Pac-12 team in Stanford. Give me UCLA +7!
|03-27-21||76ers +4.5 v. Clippers||112-122||Loss||-109||12 h 39 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Situational VEGAS INSIDER (76ers +4.5)
I like the price we are getting with the 76ers in this spot. Philadelphia seems to be rallying around the injury to Joel Embiid. They come in having won 4 straight and 6 of their last 10. The 76ers are also 9-1-1 ATS, which is a pretty good sign they are undervalued right now with the lines they are getting without Embiid.
There's also a huge motivational angle for Philadelphia. Their new head coach, Doc Rivers, will be going back to LA for the first time to face the Clippers team that basically said they didn't think he could take this team where they needed to go. The 76ers players are going to lay everything on the line to try to make sure their new head coach beats his old team. Give me the 76ers +4.5!
|03-27-21||Syracuse +6.5 v. Houston||Top||46-62||Loss||-105||34 h 13 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - NCAA Tournament 'Sweet 16' MAX UNIT Top Play (Syracuse +6.5)
I love the Orange as a 6.5-point dog against Houston in the last game on the board for Saturday's Sweet 16 card. I know Syracuse might be the popular side, but I just can't help myself with the price we are getting.
There's just something about the style that the Orange play under Jim Boeheim that translates to success in the NCAA Tournament. I know this isn't all NCAA Tournament, but it still speaks volumes. Syracuse is 88-61 (60%) ATS in their last 147 neutral site games and have gone a ridiculous 42-19 ATS in their last 61 as a neutral site dog. Orange are also 10-1 ATS last 11 NCAA Tournament games when seeded anywhere from a No. 9 seed to a No. 12 seed. Give me Syracuse!
|03-27-21||Oral Roberts v. Arkansas -11||70-72||Loss||-113||32 h 39 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - NCAA Tournament 'Sweet 16' ATS SHOCKER (Arkansas -11)
Everyone is on No. 15 seed Oral Roberts as a double-digit dog. Whenever there's a game of this magnitude with such a big public backing, I'm going to be looking hard at the other side. Even more so when the public is crazy about an underdog.
There's more than just fading the public with backing Arkansas. These two teams actually played back in late December and while Arkansas only won the game by 11-points at home, they outscored the Golden Eagles 57-36 in the 2nd half after a sloppy start that saw them score just 30 in the 1st half.
Note that one reason the Razorbacks might have started slow in that game, is they hadn't played in a week, were sitting 6-0 and off 3 straight wins by 25 or more and were a near 20-point favorite. Arkansas isn't going to take Golden Roberts lightly this time around. Give me the Razorbacks -11!
|03-26-21||Hawks -7 v. Warriors||124-108||Win||100||12 h 22 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Hawks/Warriors ESPN Bookie MASSACRE (Hawks -7)
I got no problem laying the 7-points with the Hawks at Golden State tonight. I don't why people are giving this Warriors team any respect with Steph Curry out. They just need so much to go right without him on the floor to just keep games close.
Just look at their last game, they show 51% from the field and 53% from behind the 3-point line (17-32) and yet still lost by 22 on the road to the Kings. Also worth noting is Sacramento point guard De'Aaron Fox lit them up for 44 and now they face another dynamic PG in Trae Young.
Hawks have lost their last two, but one was a loss at LA to the Clippers and the other was a big letdown spot at Sacramento after playing the Lakers and Clippers in a 3-day stretch. Prior to that Atlanta had won 8 straight and covered 7 of those 8. Give me the Hawks -7!
|03-26-21||Celtics v. Bucks -6||Top||122-114||Loss||-104||10 h 51 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH (Bucks -6)
I really like the Bucks as a 6-point home favorite against the Celtics on Friday. These two teams just played on Wednesday. Milwaukee won that game, but failed to cover as a 7-point favorite in a 121-119 win.
Not only are we getting a better number this time around, but the Celtics will be playing short-handed here. Boston was active at the trade deadline yesterday and ended up parting ways with starting center Theis and backup point guard Teague. They acquired Fournier, Wagner and Kornet, but it's unlikely any of those will be available.
Teague and Theis were two of 8 guys who saw more than 5 mins against Milwaukee, so Boston will have to go way down in their depth chart here. I just don't think they will be able to keep pace with Milwaukee in this one. Give me the Bucks -6!
|03-25-21||Warriors v. Kings -2.5||119-141||Win||100||13 h 54 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT (Kings -2.5)
We cashed in a cover with the Kings in last night's 110-108 win at home over the Hawks. I know Sacramento is playing in the 2nd of a back-to-back here, but I think it has them showing value because of it.
They couldn't be catching the Warriors at a better time, as they are without one of the best players in the game in Steph Curry. It's just not nearly as hard defending Golden State when you don't have to worry about Curry lighting you up from deep. Warriors are only averaging 104.4 ppg in their last 5 and have shot just 43% from the field during this stretch.
As I mentioned in yesterday's analysis on the Kings, I really think Sacramento is undervalued right now. The Marvin Bagley injury may have been a blessing, as it's allowed stud rookie Tyrese Haliburton to move into the starting lineup. He's started the last 5 and the Kings have won 4 of those. I think they not only win here, but win going away. Give me Sacramento -2.5!
|03-25-21||Louisiana Tech v. Western Kentucky +1||Top||72-65||Loss||-110||50 h 3 m||Show|
50* (CBB) Thursday NIT Situational ANNIHILATOR (WKU +1)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Hilltoppers at basically a pick'em against Louisiana Tech in the Quarterfinals of the NIT. I had big concerns with Western Kentucky going into the NIT, as I thought they could have a hard time getting up for this tournament after losing in OT to North Texas of the C-USA Tournament title game, which would have landed them in the NCAA Tournament.
While they barely scraped by with a 69-67 win over St. Mary's in the first round of the NIT, I think they are going to be locked in now that they got a win and will be motivated to win the NIT. I definitely like them to beat the Bulldogs. Louisiana Tech comes in with a record of 22-7, but outside of their conference schedule they didn't really face anyone other than LSU, who they lost to by 31-points. WKU beat Memphis and Alabama in non-conference and only lost by 6 to West Virginia. Give me the Hilltoppers +1!
|03-25-21||Clippers v. Spurs +6.5||98-85||Loss||-105||11 h 28 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Situational PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Spurs +6.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Spurs as a 6.5-point dog in their rematch with the Clippers. These two played last night in San Antonio and it did not go well for the home team, as LA won going away 134-101. The fact that that line was 6.5 and the books didn't adjust the number at all for this game, is a pretty good indicator that the oddsmakers like the Spurs chances of covering here, as they know the betting public is going to be all over the Clippers.
History is definitely on the Spurs side in this spot, as San Antonio has gone a dominant 14-2 ATS over the last 3 seasons when revenging a loss of 20 or more points. Also, even with that loss last night the Spurs are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 as a dog. Clippers are also 2-6 ATS last 8 off a win and 1-4 ATS last 5 as a road favorite. Give me the Spurs +6.5!
|03-24-21||Hawks v. Kings +3.5||108-110||Win||100||28 h 59 m||Show|
40* (NBA) Late Night BAILOUT NO-BRAINER (+3.5)
I'm going to take the Sacramento Kings +3.5 at home against the Atlanta Hawks. Sacramento just won 3 of 4 to close out a 6-game road trip and I like them to carry over that momentum to this game. Despite a 18-25 record, Kings are still very much in the playoff picture. They are 3.5-games back of Dallas for the 10th and final spot. Unless some big trade happens, I feel pretty good about the effort we are going to get from Sacramento.
I'm a lot more concerned about the Hawks showing up for this game. Atlanta just played the Lakers and Clippers in to open up their 8-game road. They beat the Lakers 99-94, but fell 110-119 at the Clippers on Monday. It's hard to play two big games like that and bring that same energy the next time out against a far inferior opponent. That loss to the Clippers, also snapped a 8-game winning streak and it's not easy bouncing back from that first loss after a long winning streak.
I know the Kings are down Marvin Bagley, but I'm not so sure they aren't better without him. Their 3-1 stretch I mention has come after he went out. I think their starting 5 got better by replacing Bagley with rookie Tyrese Haliburton. He's just as effective scoring the ball, if not better, a better 3-point shooter and his 3.3 AST/TO ratio is best of any player that averages double-digit minutes. Bagley's is 2nd worst at 0.7. Kings basically got two point guards out there with him and Fox.
Hawks are just 1-4-1 ATS last 6 as a road favorite and have failed to cover each of their last 4 games played at Sacramento. Give me the Kings +3.5!
|03-24-21||Grizzlies -4.5 v. Thunder||Top||116-107||Win||100||11 h 3 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Grizzlies/Thunder MAX UNIT Top Play (Grizzlies -4.5)
I love the value here with Memphis as a small road favorite against the Thunder. The Grizzlies come into this game with some momentum having beat the Warriors 111-103 and the Celtics 132-126 in their last 2 games.
They shouldn't have any problem staying locked in here against a Thunder team they just lost two a couple weeks ago in OKC. It was a game that had to sting a little. Memphis won each of the first 3 quarters and had a 10-point lead going into the 4th quarter, only to get outscored 36-22 to lose by 6.
Grizzlies are 8-2 ATS last 10 games as a favorite. OKC who just finished up a 4-game road trip is a mere 3-7 ATS last 10 at home after a road trip of 7 or more days. Give me Memphis -4.5!
|03-23-21||Nets v. Blazers -1.5||Top||116-112||Loss||-110||13 h 1 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH (Blazers -1.5)
I will gladly back the Blazers at basically a pick'em at home against a Brooklyn team that will be without at least 2 of their 3 starters. Durant is still out with a hamstring injury, Irving is out for at least 3 games to deal with a personal matter and Harden is questionable with a neck injury.
This shouldn't be much of a problem for Portland and while it might be tough for the Blazers to take the Nets seriously if all 3 are out, I'm confident they find a way to win. Portland should be motivated here regardless of who plays, as they were just embarrassed by the Mavs 132-92 in their last game. Blazers are still a very strong 7-3 SU in their last 10 games. Portland has also covered 5 of their last 7 off a double-digit loss at home. Give me the Blazers -1.5!
|03-22-21||Hawks +6.5 v. Clippers||110-119||Loss||-104||24 h 23 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT (Hawks +6.5)
I will take my chances with Atlanta as a 6.5-point dog against the Clippers. The Hawks are 8-0 SUS and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games. They have found something here under interim head coach Nate McMillan. They just knocked off the Lakers as a road dog on Saturday and I see them being extremely motivated to pull another upset here against the Clippers.
As for the other LA team, I just don't think the Clippers have really locked it in. In their last 14 games they are 6-8 SU and 6-8 ATS. They just don't seem all that interested. Hawks are 7-3 ATS last 10 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 4-1 ATS last 5 as a dog. LA is 0-6 ATS last 6 off a win. Give me the Hawks +6.5!
|03-22-21||Colorado v. Florida State -1||53-71||Win||100||22 h 9 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - NCAA Tournament 'Round of 32' VEGAS INSIDER (Florida State -1)
I like the value here with Florida State at basically a pick'em against the Buffaloes. I'm a little surprised with the lack of respect the Seminoles are getting in this game. Maybe it's cause they didn't dominate UNCG in the first round, but I actually wasn't surprised with them not blowing out the Spartans.
I also think we might be seeing an overreaction here with Colorado and their 96-73 win over Georgetown. The Hoyas did come in hot off a Big East Tournament title, but that's far from a great team. The biggest thing in that game is Colorado just had one of those nights where they couldn't miss. They shot 60.7% from the field and were 16 of 25 (64%) from behind the 3-point line. If they shoot like that we are screwed, but I think this FSU defense will be up to the task. Give me the Seminoles -1!
|03-22-21||LSU v. Michigan -4.5||Top||78-86||Win||100||22 h 40 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - NCAA Tournament MAX UNIT Top Play (Michigan -4.5)
I got no problem here laying the 4.5-points with the Wolverines against LSU in the Round of 32 on Monday. I just feel like there's a little too much being made of the injury to Isaiah Livers and it's creating value with Michigan. There's a ton of talent on this Wolverines team and like we have seen with Villanova after they lost Gillespie. This is still an elite team and I just don't think LSU is anywhere close to them in terms of talent and execution.
I played against the Tigers in the first round and lost, as they really made easy work of St. Bonaventure. Some of that was the Bonnies just not shooting the ball well and getting owned on the glass. Those are two things that Michigan does extremely well. The biggest thing here is defense. The Wolverines are way more connected on that side of the ball. Give me Michigan -4.5!
|03-22-21||Oregon v. Iowa -5||95-80||Loss||-110||15 h 51 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - NCAA Tournament 'Round of 32' ATS SHARP STAKE (Iowa -5)
I got no problem laying a mere 5-points with Iowa as they take on Oregon in the Round of 32 on Monday. I know it's been a rough go for the Big Ten, who had 3 more teams go out on Sunday, including No. 1 seed Illinois. I actually think it's playing into the value here with the Hawks.
What people don't realize with Iowa is that this is a really tough team to play when you haven't faced them. They don't turn the ball over, they have the best player in the country in Luka Garza, they got a bunch of guys who can shoot the 3-ball and their defense has been greatly improved as the season went on.
I really wonder how the Ducks are going to contain Garza. Oregon's tallest guy that plays is 6-8 backup big man Chandler Lawson. Their starting big man is 6-6 Eugene Omoruyi, who is a bigger guy that could run out of gas trying to keep up with Garza. I think with the size advantage and talent that Iowa has down low, Oregon could be in some serious foul trouble early. Give me the Hawkeyes -5!
|03-21-21||Oregon State +6.5 v. Oklahoma State||80-70||Win||100||13 h 59 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - NCAA Tournament Round of 32 VEGAS INSIDER (Oregon St +6.5)
I will ride Oregon State and the massive wave of momentum that the Beavers will bring into Sunday's game against Oklahoma State. Oregon State came out of nowhere to win the Pac-12 Tournament and not many were giving them any shot against Tennessee on Friday. The Beavers didn't just win, they dominated the Vols in a 70-56 win.
I just think Oregon State is playing to well to be getting this many points against a Oklahoma State team that doesn't really blow teams out. Liberty who likes to play at a snails pace, was able to slow the game down against Oklahoma State, which I think is a really good sign for Oregon State, who also wants to play at a slow pace. Give me Oregon State +6.5!
|03-21-21||North Texas +5.5 v. Villanova||61-84||Loss||-109||12 h 2 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - NCAA Tournament Round of 32 ATS NO BRAINER (North Texas +5.5)
I really like the value here with North Texas +5.5 against Villanova. It took OT for the Mean Green to get by Purdue, but they really were the better team in that one from start to finish. I think North Texas has a guy that can carry them in Javion Hamlet, but it's not just him. Mean Green had 4 different players score in double-figures.
At the same time, I think Villanova is in some trouble. The Wildcats were able to put away Winthrop, but I just think without Collin Gillespie their start in the Big Dance is going to be short-lived. I really like the Mean Green to win this game, but I can't pass up on the points. Give me North Texas +5.5!
|03-21-21||Syracuse +4 v. West Virginia||Top||75-72||Win||100||8 h 15 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - NCAA Tournament MAX UNIT SUNDAY Top Play (Syracuse +4)
I really like the value here with Syracuse as a small dog against West Virginia. I know I just bet against the Orange in their First Round game against San Diego State, but I really liked what I saw out of this Syracuse team in that game. I also think they got a bigger edge in games where there's just 1 day of prep between games.
West Virginia looks like they dominated Morehead St with a 84-67 win, but that came was really close until late. It was a 1-point game with less than 15 mins to play in the 2nd half. Mountaineers defense was spotty at best. They just dominated the tournavor department, forcing 18 and only committing 6. That's another thing I like about Syracuse here, as they take really good care of the ball. Give me Syracuse +4!
|03-20-21||Abilene Christian +9 v. Texas||53-52||Win||100||55 h 10 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - March Madness 1st Round DOG OF THE DAY (Abilene Christian +9)
I will roll the dice with Abilene Christian as a 9-point dog to Texas. I think the Longhorns are a good team, but I just think they might be a little overvalued coming into the Big Dance off that Big 12 Tournament title. They were lucky to get out of the first round (trailed Texas Tech by 10 with 12 minutes to play), had their second game against Kansas called off and then beat OK State by 5 in the title game.
Not only is no one picking Abilene Christian, but a lot of people think Texas is a potential Final Four team. I think it makes the Longhorns a little bit vulnerable here, as they might not give this Wildcats team the respect they deserve.
It could come back to bite them. The Wildcats led the country in defensive TO% (26.7%), which plays into a flaw of Texas, who ranks 237th in offensive TO% (20.1%). If they let Abilene Christian get easy baskets on turnovers, it will give that team life and momentum.
Let's also no overlook the fact that this team went on the road and only lost to Texas Tech by a final of 44-51 and later lost by just 13 at Arkansas. That right there shows you the kind of talent this team has being able to hang with two really good teams playing two completely different styles. Give me the Wildcats +9!
|03-20-21||Maryland v. Connecticut -3||63-54||Loss||-108||102 h 51 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - March Madness 1st Round SHARP MONEY Winner (UConn -3)
I’m going to lay the 3-points with the UConn Huskies against the Maryland Terrapins. I get why UConn got the seed they got, but I think if you look at the team that’s coming into the tournament, they might be the most underrated team in the field at least in terms of where they were seeded.
It’s all about sophomore guard James Bouknight. UConn was 11-3 in games in which Bouknight played. Two of those losses were to Creighton by a combined 5 points and the other was a 8-point loss at Villanova, which was only the second game back for Bouknight after he had missed more than a month. Huskies were just 4-4 in the 8 games that Bouknight didn’t play.
KenPom has this team ranked No. 16, which says they are much more like a No. 4 or No. 5 seed.
UConn finished in the Top 25 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency. No team in the Big East was tougher to score on in the paint than the Huskies. Opposing teams show just 46.9% on their 2-point attempts. UConn also led the conference and finished 10th nationally in Block % at 14.4%.
As for Maryland, you got to give head coach Mark Turgeon a lot of credit for getting this team in the NCAA Tournament. Very few thought this team could accomplish what it was able to accomplish this season. With that said, I kinda feel like the Terps overachieved this year. Good teams don’t go into the final two games of the regular-season on a 5-game win streak and lose to the likes of Northwestern and at home to Penn State.
Maryland isn’t a horrible 3-point shooting team, but they also aren’t great. I just think with how difficult it’s going to be to score inside, it’s really going to make it tough on the Terps to keep this game respectable.
The only reason this isn’t a Top Play for me is, there is a little concern that starting point guard R.J. Cole did have to leave their loss to Creighton in the Big East Tournament with a head laceration and concussion, but he will have more than a week to get cleared for this game. I’m pretty confident he goes. Not to mention I think we are getting a good 3-4 points in value on this line, so I’ll be on the Huskies with or without him. Give me UConn -3.
|03-20-21||Grand Canyon v. Iowa -14.5||74-86||Loss||-105||51 h 29 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - March Madness 1st Round NO DOUBT Blowout (Iowa -14.5)
I will lay the big number with Iowa in their first round game with Grand Canyon. The Hawkeyes might not be on the same level as the 3-big dogs in Gonzaga, Illinois and Baylor, but they are damn close.
After really getting their butts kicked (only lost by 11) to Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament, I think we are going to see a locked in Hawkeyes team. I know Grand Canyon only lost by 1 to Arizona St and by just 10 to Colorado in non-conference, but there's a pretty big gap between the top of the Pac-12 and the top of the Big Ten.
Iowa is also a team that dominated the competition in non-conference play (only loss was to Gonzaga). I feel like they are a very difficult team to prepare for when you haven't played against them before. It's really hard to know what to expect from a player like Luka Garza. I think he's going to dominate this game and with only a couple big guys on the roster, foul trouble could become a big problem for the Antelopes. Give me Iowa -14.5!
|03-20-21||UC-Santa Barbara +7.5 v. Creighton||62-63||Win||100||48 h 26 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - March Madness 1st Round ATS SHOCKER (UC-Santa Barbara +7.5)
I really like the value here with the Gauchos getting 7.5-points against Creighton. I just really have concerns with the Bluejays. Everything was going great for this Creighton team until head coach Greg McDermott made some racially insensitive things to his players that was brought to the media's attention. He got a whole 1-game suspension for that.
I know that Creighton won their first two of the Big East Tournament with McDermott back, but they also laid a huge egg in the title game, falling 48-73 to Georgetown. That's about as uncharacteristic of a Bluejays performance as you will see.
I'm not talking about losing by 25, but scoring 48 points and shooting 5 of 12 from the free throw line is quite the outlier. Denzel Mahoney certainly wanted his in that game, shooting 1-13 from the field (1-10 from 3).
On top of those concerns, another thing to note is based on what we saw in the Big Ten Tournament, Lucas Oil Stadium can be challenging on shooters the first time they play (backdrop takes some getting use to). Could be a big problem for a Creighton team that is 32nd in the country getting 37.9% of their points from behind the 3-point line.
UC Santa Barbara brings a solid defense, slower tempo of play and an offense that scores efficiently inside. I think they give the Bluejays a run for their money. Give me the Gauchos +7.5
|03-20-21||NC-Greensboro +11 v. Florida State||Top||54-64||Win||100||46 h 40 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - NCAA Tournament MAX UNIT SATURDAY Top Play (UNCG +11)
I love UNC Greensboro catching double-digits against Florida State. I got nothing but respect for the Seminoles, but I don't see the Spartans going down without a fight. There's a lot of rumors that head coach Wes Miller, who is a legend at this program, will leave for a better job when this is all done.
I think that in the back of their mind gives this UNC Greensboro team a little extra on the floor. Not to mention no one is picking them to win this game, which not only adds fuel to their fire, but also makes it really hard for FSU players to start thinking ahead to who they might play Monday.
I like all that, plus they got a stud point guard in Isaiah Miller, who not only can score (19.3 ppg), he does it all. He rebounds (6.9 rpg), distributes (4.0 apg) and defends (3x Southern Conference Defensive player of the year. He dabbled in going pro after last season, but came back to do something special. I think he just might. Give me UNC-Greensboro +11!
|03-19-21||Morehead State v. West Virginia -13||67-84||Win||100||31 h 3 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - March Madness 1st Round ATS SLAUGHTER (West Virginia -13)
I feel really confident about West Virginia being one of those top seeds that don't have to sweat their first game. The Mountaineers are without question one of the best teams in the country. They only went 18-9 overall and 11-6 in Big 12 play, but only 1 of those 9 losses came by more than 5-points. That includes a 5-point loss to Gonzaga on a neutral court. A game they led in by 9 late in the 2nd half.
I just don't think Morehead State has any shot here of keeping this close. The Eagles dominated the Ohio Valley, going 17-3 in the regular-season and winning the conference tournament. That's great in all, but they went just 1-5 in non-conference vs D1 schools. They lost by 36 to Kentucky, by 18 to Richmond, by 33 to Ohio State and 15 to Clemson. I just think the Mountaineers can play their "B" game here and win this game by 20+. Give me West Virginia -13!
|03-19-21||North Texas v. Purdue -7||Top||78-69||Loss||-110||28 h 21 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - NCAA Tournament MAX UNIT FRIDAY Top Play (Purdue -7)
|03-19-21||Colgate v. Arkansas -8.5||68-85||Win||100||72 h 37 m||Show|
40* (CBB) March Madness 1st Round VEGAS INSIDER (Arkansas -8.5)
I was shocked to see the Razorbacks laying single-digits in this one. Arkansas was one of the hottest teams in the country over the last couple of months. They went 11-1 to close out the regular-season with the only loss being a 4-point setback at Oklahoma State. They did lose in the semis of the SEC Tournament in a hard fought loss to LSU, but overall this team is 12-2 in their last 14.
They also went a perfect 8-0 in non-conference play and while they didn’t face the toughest non-conference schedule., they did face three teams that made the field of 68 in No. 13 seed North Texas, No. 14 seed Abilene Christian and No. 15 seed in Oral Roberts, all of which they beat by double-digits.
Arkansas finished up at 22-6. Of those 6 losses, the only one that came against a team that finished the year ranked outside the Top 30 at KenPom is Missouri, who finished No. 51.
As for Colgate, they finished 14-1 and ended the year on a 12-game winning streak. They got the automatic bid into the Big Dance by winning the Patriot League Tournament, where they beat a Loyola Maryland team that went 4-10 in the regular-season.
For those that don’t know, the Patriot League played a wacky conference schedule, where they broke up the 10 team league into two divisions and then teams just played their division all season. Colgate’s conference schedule included 4 games against Army, 4 against Boston U and 4 against Holy Cross. They played Boston U again in the first round of the tournament, before taking down Bucknell and Loyola Maryland.
The Raiders have played a whopping 5 different opponents all year and Army is the highest rated of the bunch in KenPom’s rankings at No. 189. Colgate didn’t play a single non-conference game.
Another thing I think worth mentioning is that Navy posted the best conference record in the Patriot League at 12-1 and they did play some non-conference games. One of those being a 82-52 loss to Maryland, which I think kinda speaks to the gap in talent we are seeing here. It’s not like Colgate dominated the competition. Also, I’m aware that this was a really good Colgate team last year, which finished up 25-9, but they played 3 big programs last year in non-conference, losing by 23 to Clemson, by 16 to Syracuse and by 29 to Auburn. While they did return a lot from that team, they arguably lost their two best players.
I just have a hard time seeing the Raiders keep this close. Not only is this a massive step-up in competition, but this an Arkansas team that can really cause some problems. The Razorbacks want to speed up the game and make it uncomfortable for their opponent. They do that by not only playing fast, but they force a bunch of turnovers and do a great job on the other side of protecting the ball. Arkansas finished 35th in offensive efficiency. Colgate didn’t face a team that finished in the Top 200. Razorbacks also were 14th in defensive efficiency. The best team the Raiders faced defensively was Army at 149. Every other team by Loyola Maryland ranked outside the Top 286, so I would be cautious when looking at the fact that this team put up 86.3 ppg and gave up just 68.6 ppg.
|03-18-21||Pelicans +1 v. Blazers||Top||93-101||Loss||-106||12 h 7 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Western Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Pelicans +1)
I will gladly take my chances here with New Orleans at basically a pick'em against the Blazers. This is a rematch from Tuesday, a game that saw the Pelicans lose 124-125, despite leading 115-98 with 6:53 left on the clock in the 4th quarter.
It was an epic meltdown and outstanding comeback by Portland. I just think the quick turnaround and how that game played out, will have the Pelicans as the much more motivated team in the rematch.
You don't erase a deficit like that in that amount of time very often. It will be really hard for Portland to have some kind of letdown off that win. On the flip side, New Orleans has to be sitting their pissed off and sick to their stomach about what happened. I think Pelicans will stick to what got them that big lead and maintain that chip on their shoulder this time around. Give me New Orleans +1!
|03-18-21||Thunder +7 v. Hawks||93-116||Loss||-105||10 h 38 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money DOG OF THE DAY (Thunder +7)
The Hawks have won 6 straight and covered 5 of those games. No question that this team is playing better under interim head coach Nate McMillan, but I think it has them a bit overvalued in this particular spot.
After this game the Hawks will be getting on a plane to head out west for a lengthy 8-game road trip. One that will start with games at the Staples Center against the Lakers on Saturday and Clippers on Monday. I just think it's going to be hard for Atlanta to get up for this game against an OKC team that really isn't all that exciting.
While the Thunder don't offer much in terms of star players, they do play really hard and have won 3 of their last 5 games all as dogs. If Atlanta doesn't show up with the right mindset, OKC could definitely win outright. Give me the Thunder +7!
|03-18-21||NC State v. Davidson -1.5||Top||75-61||Loss||-106||21 h 35 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - First Four MAX UNIT Top Play (Davidson -1.5)
I love the value heere with Davidson as a slim 1.5-point favorite against N.C. State in Thursday's First Fout matchup. I've not really been a big believer in this Wolfpack team this year. They started out 6-1 against a soft schedule and finished 5-1 in their last 6, which I think covers up an awful 2-8 stretch from early January to mid-Feburary.
Sure they had a couple nice wins, but for the most part they struggled against the better teams in the ACC. I think it says a lot for them to lose by 21 (68-89) to Syracuse in their first game of the ACC Tournament.
Davidson is a team that I think flies a bit under the radar. They more than held their own in A-10 play and had to deal with a long Covid break. Of their 5 losses in A-10 play, their largest margin of defeat was just 12. The ability to always be in a game is the sign of a good team. The Wildcats also proved how good they were in non-conference play, losing by just 2 to Texas and by 1 to Providence on neutral courts. Give me Davidson -1.5!
|03-18-21||Drake -1.5 v. Wichita State||53-52||Loss||-110||20 h 46 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - First Four VEGAS INSIDER (Drake -1.5)
I really like Drake at basically a pick'em against Wichita State in Thursday's First Four action. The Bulldogs were far better than anyone expected them to be. They started out 18-0 and even after losing their best player to injury, they kept playing at a high level.
They will get back their senior stud in Shanquan Hemphill. I also think people are sleeping on the maturation of sophomore point guard Joseph Yesufu. He scored 20 or more in 5 of their last 7, including back-to-back 30+ point games.
Wichita State is a good team, but can really be stagnant on offense. They finished a pathetic 279th in the country in effective FG %. Drake in comparison was 30th and had the No. 19 ranked offensive efficiency in the nation. Bulldogs also are great at taking care of the ball and defend at a high level. I just think they are without a doubt the better team. Give me Drake -1.5!
|03-17-21||Clippers v. Mavs +2.5||Top||89-105||Win||100||12 h 46 m||Show|
50* CLIPPERS/MAVS NBA on ESPN *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Mavs +2.5)
We cashed a 50* Top Play on the Clippers in Monday's 109-99 win at Dallas. I was really big on LA in that game, as they were out for revenge from an ugly 50-point loss to the Mavs earlier in this season. Now that the Clippers got that revenge, I'm going to jump sides and go big on Dallas here as a home dog in the rematch.
The Mavs didn't really play great in that first meeting and yet still only lost by 10 points. They only managed 21 points in the 4th quarter and were held scoreless for the final 3 minutes and 15 seconds. Doncic had a triple-double with 25, 10 and 16, but he was just 9 of 23 shooting from the field, missing a lot of big shots late. LA's had trouble bringing a consistent effort and I just think the Mavs are in a prime position to win this game. Give me Dallas +2.5!
|03-17-21||Heat v. Grizzlies +1||85-89||Win||100||11 h 15 m||Show|
40* NBA PUBLIC MONEY ATS MASSACRE (Grizzlies +1)
I just feel like this is a great spot and price to back Memphis at home against Miami. You knew the Heat were going to get things figured out and go on a run like they have, but as a result they are now overvalued in a really bad scheduling spot.
Miami is not only playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back on the road after hosting Cleveland last night, this will be their 5th game in 7 days since returning from the break. I wouldn't be surprised if the Heat didn't sit a couple guys in this one. I think it's an even tougher spot given it being a 1-game road trip, as they will fly right back to Miami with their next 4 at home. Give me the Grizzlies +1!
|03-17-21||Nets v. Pacers +4||124-115||Loss||-110||9 h 30 m||Show|
40* NBA SHARP MONEY ATS STEAMROLLER (Pacers +4)
I will take a shot here with the Pacers as a 4-point home dog to the Nets. The books are definitely making a stand with Indiana in this one, as they know the betting public is going to be all over Brooklyn as a small favorite. I know Indiana let us down in their last game at Denver, losing by 15 as a 4-point dog, despite going into the 4th quarter with the lead. Pacers managed just 15 points in that final period.
I still think there's a lot to like with this Indiana team going forward now that they got Caris LeVert in the fold. No question this game means a little more for LeVert, as the Nets are the ones that shipped him out of town in that big trade earlier this season. I also think Brooklyn is kind of just going thru the motions right now. They didn't cover in either of their last two at home against the Pistons and Knicks. Indiana will definitely be the more motivated side in this one. Give me the Pacers +4!
|03-16-21||Wolves +9 v. Lakers||Top||121-137||Loss||-115||12 h 3 m||Show|
50* WOLVES/LAKERS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Wolves +9)
I really like the value here with Minnesota as a 9-point dog against the Lakers. The Timberwolves have looked like a different team out of the All-Star break and a big reason for that is the improved play of rookie Anthony Edwards. Not only his strong play, but the effort level across the board for the team has been a lot better.
Minnesota returned from the break with a shocking 135-105 win at New Orleans as a 8-point dog, They then lost 121-125 at home to the Blazers as a 5-point dog and beat Portland 114-112 as a 5-point dog in the rematch.
Lakers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a convincing 128-97 win at Golden State last night. I just think LA is a bit overvalued here. Not only are they in a big flat spot on no rest, but they are playing shorthanded right now. Give me the Timberwolves +9!
|03-16-21||Knicks +7 v. 76ers||96-99||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
40* KNICKS/76ERS NBA ATS NO-BRAINER (Knicks +7)
I like the value here with New York as a 7-point dog against the 76ers. We cashed in on the Knicks as a 8.5-point dog last night at Brooklyn. I know playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here is concerning, but it's not like this is a great spot for the 76ers.
Philadelphia will be playing their 4th game in 6 days as they just played 3 in 4 before getting yesterday off. This is also the first of a back-to-back that has them hosting the Bucks in a huge showdown tomorrow. Plus, they are still without one of their top players in Embiid. I know Philly has been rolling here of late, but this just feels like a real flat spot. Give me the Knicks +7!
|03-16-21||Jazz v. Celtics +4.5||117-109||Loss||-109||9 h 57 m||Show|
40* JAZZ/CELTICS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Celtics +4.5)
I'll take a shot here with Boston as a 4.5-point home dog against the Jazz. The Celtics are finally starting to play up to their potential, as they come in having won 5 of 6 with the only loss coming on the road against the Nets.
While Boston is surging and likely a little undervalued right now, Utah is slumping and still way overvalued from their crazy run. Utah has lost 3 of 4 and failed to cover in each of those games. The only win coming against a Rockets team that has a bunch of 2nd and 3rd stringers playing big minutes. I just think the price here is too good to pass up. Give me the Celtics +4.5!
|03-15-21||Pacers +5 v. Nuggets||106-121||Loss||-110||12 h 40 m||Show|
40* PACERS/NUGGETS NBA ATS NO-BRAINER (Pacers +5)
I think the Pacers +5 is worth a shot as Indiana will visit Denver on Monday. Indiana really went into the All-Star break in bad shape. The Pacers had lost 12 of 17 games, including a 10-point loss at home to the Nuggets in the last game before the break.
In the first two games back the Pacers have looked pretty good. They did lose 100-105 at the Lakers on Friday, but really should have won that game. What I liked is they didn't let the loss linger as they went out the very next night and upset the Suns 122-111 as a 7-point dog.
Also, the Pacers finally got Caris LeVert on the floor, who was their big get in the Oladipo trade. LeVert debuted Saturday against the Suns, scoring 13 points with 7 rebounds and 2 assist in 27 minutes. His return not only provides a boost in terms of their rotation, but it also really gives them a jolt mentally.
With Denver off a home loss to the Mavs and Jamal Murray in a bit of a funk right now (5 for 27 shooting last 2 games), I like the Pacers not only covering but winning this game outright. Give me Indiana +5!
|03-15-21||Clippers -1.5 v. Mavs||Top||109-99||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
50* CLIPPERS/MAVS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Clippers -1.5)
There's just some losses to teams that it doesn't matter how long it's been since that loss occurred, it's one that you don't forget. I believe the Clippers 73-124 loss at home to the Mavs back on Dec. 27th is one of those games. Dallas not only won the game by 51, they lost by 50 at the half.
Not only does LA have that for motivation here, but they also just got embarrassed yesterday at New Orleans by 20 in a 135-115 loss. Playing on back-to-back games is never easy, but the Clippers have covered 6 straight in the second of a back-to-back. They are also 17-5 ATS last 22 off a loss by 10 or more and 5-1 ATS last 6 trips to Dallas! Give me the Clippers -1.5!
|03-15-21||Knicks +8.5 v. Nets||112-117||Win||100||10 h 50 m||Show|
40* NETS/KNICKS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Knicks +8.5)
I think we are getting a great price with the Knicks as a 8.5-point dog against the Nets. Brooklyn has been rolling, winning 12 of their last 13, but are still without Durant and there's just not a lot more for this team to prove. They have shown that when they are locked in, they are going to be extremely difficult to beat.
I'm not saying they are going to start losing a bunch of games, but I think we could see them struggle to get up for some of the lessor teams. They did just barely hold on for a 100-95 win at home against the Pistons in their last game and really shot the 3-ball poorly in that game. You know the Knicks are going to get up for this game and New York has been playing really well over the last month. They are 9-4 in their last 13. I like them to at least keep this close. Give me the Knicks +8.5!
|03-14-21||Cavs +6.5 v. Hawks||82-100||Loss||-110||10 h 34 m||Show|
40* CAVS/HAWKS NBA SITUATIONAL NO-BRAINER (Cavs +6.5)
I will take a shot here with Cleveland as a 6.5-point dog against the Hawks. Definitely getting some value here with the Cavs, who just got blasted 82-116 at New Orleans on Friday. Books got no choice but to inflate the number here on Atlanta, who has won 4 straight and are a team the public likes to get behind when they are playing well.
I just think we are going to see a much better effort here from Cleveland. They did get back Kevin Love and Larry Nance Jr. for that game. They also didn't have one of their top playmakers in Darius Garland, who is expected to play in this game. Atlanta is also just not a team that can be trusted and with this being the 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd in 4 nights, it has flat spot written all over it. Give me the Cavs +6.5!
|03-14-21||Spurs v. 76ers -3.5||99-134||Win||100||9 h 36 m||Show|
40* SPURS/76ERS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (76ers -3.5)
I'll take my chances here with the 76ers as a small home favorite against the Spurs on Sunday. Philadelphia won their first game back from the All-Star break 127-105 at Chicago and did so without Embiid or Simmons. Embiid came back for their next game, a 127-101 blowout win at Washington, but were still without Simmons.
Now Embiid is back out with a knee injury, but Simmons will return. Thing is, this is a deep 76ers team and when they are hitting shots like they have been here of late (shot 50% or better in 4 straight), this is tough team to beat.
Also, the Spurs are playing here without two of their top players, as DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge are both out.
San Antonio did destroy the Magic 104-77 in their last game, but Orlando is in about as bad as shape as any team right now. Give me the 76ers -3.5!
|03-14-21||VCU v. St Bonaventure -2.5||Top||65-74||Win||100||3 h 8 m||Show|
50* VCU/ST BONAVENTURE *AAC PLAY OF THE MONTH* (St. Bonaventure -2.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Bonnies at basically a pick'em against VCU in the A-10 Championship game on Sunday. St. Bonaventure has really been impressive in this tournament. They took care of Duquesne 75-59 as a 7.5-point favorite on Friday and then crushed St. Louis 71-53 as a 2-point dog on Saturday.
Not that VCU hasn't played well, I just think that the Bonnies are not only the more talented team, but they are the more experienced team. They are also locked in defensively right now. They haven't given up 60 points in any of their last 6 games.
St Bonaventure is a perfect 7-0 ATS last 2 seasons in neutral site games, while VCU is just 2-10 ATS last 12 on the road against a quality team that's outscoring opponents by 4+ ppg. Rams are also a mere 3-13 ATS last 16 on the road vs a team like the Bonnies that takes good care of the ball and averages fewer than 14 turnovers/game. Give me St. Bonaventure -2.5!
|03-13-21||Georgia Tech v. Florida State -4.5||80-75||Loss||-110||11 h 4 m||Show|
40* GA TECH/FLORIDA ST NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Florida State -4.5)
I really like Florida State as a 4.5-point favorite against Georgia Tech in Saturday's ACC Title game. I was really impressed with how the Seminoles let a big lead slip away against UNC, fell behind and then came back and finished the job in a 69-66 win. I think that really gives this FSU team a lot of momentum going into this matchup.
Georgia Tech on the other hand was not that impressive in their first game on Thursday, barely escaping with a 70-66 win over Miami. They then had their game against Virginia called off on Friday. A game I don't think they would have won.
The other thing I love here is this game feels like unfinished business for Florida State, who lost out on the ACC regular-season title because of a loss at Notre Dame in the final game of the season. I see this as a big time statement game for the Seminoles and I just think if they play with that mindset they are going to win here going away. Give me FSU -4.5!
|03-13-21||Iowa +4 v. Illinois||Top||71-82||Loss||-110||6 h 27 m||Show|
50* IOWA/ILLINOIS NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Iowa +4) '
I love the value here with Iowa as a 4-point dog against the Fighting Illini. I was really impressed with the Hawkeyes 62-57 win over Wisconsin in the Quarterfinals on Friday. Iowa was able to win a game, despite one of their worst shooting performances from deep this season. The Hawkeyes were just 2-20 from behind the 3-point line.
I think that really shows how dangerous this Hawkeyes team is and how much better they have got defensively over the last month of the season. Illinois has played great down the stretch, but they did just barely hold on to beat Iowa 80-75 at home in the only meeting between these two. I just think Iowa is going to come in with a real chip on their shoulder in this game and I really like them to win outright. Give me the Hawkeyes +4!
|03-13-21||Knicks -5 v. Thunder||119-97||Win||100||4 h 28 m||Show|
40* KNICKS/THUNDER NBA ATS MASSACRE (Knicks -5)
I got no problem laying the 5-points with the Knicks on the road against the Thunder. New York should be highly motivated here after they got embarrassed 134-101 at Milwaukee in their first game back from the All-Star break. That just can't sit well with this team, who had won 8 of 11 going into the break.
Oklahoma City returned from the All-Star break with a 116-108 win at home over the Mavs, but that's a very misleading score. Dallas was not only playing on no rest, they sat their two best players in Doncic and Porzingis.
I think that win really covered up how bad a shape the Thunder are in right now. OKC is down starting point guard Shai Golgeous-Alexander, power forward Darius Bazley and key reserve Hamidou Diallo. Not to mention they are still without veterans George Hill and Trevor Ariza. Unlike the Mavs, who play no defense, New York defends extremely hard and I think that defensive effort by the Knicks will be the difference in this one. Give me New York -5!
|03-13-21||Tennessee v. Alabama -4.5||68-73||Win||100||4 h 59 m||Show|
40* TENNESSEE/ALABAMA NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Alabama -4.5)
I think the Crimson Tide made it pretty clear they aren't just satisfied with winning the SEC regular-season title. Alabama absolutely destroyed Mississippi State 85-48 on Friday and that's a Bulldogs team that had given them fits in two regular-season meetings. I just feel a motivated Crimson Tide team will have no problem taking down Tennessee in the Semifinals on Saturday.
The Vols did play well in yesterday's 78-66 win over Florida, but that's a Gators team that was a 1-man show with Tre Mann, scoring 30 of the teams 66 points. Alabama has a plethora of weapons that can really make life miserable on this Tennessee defense. I also don't trust this Vols offense against this Crimson Tide defense. Keep in mind Tennessee could only muster 63 points at home against Alabama earlier this season. As long as the Crimson Tide don't have an awful shooting game, I think they win this game by double-digits. Give me Alabama -4.5!
|03-12-21||Colorado -1.5 v. USC||72-70||Win||100||14 h 58 m||Show|
40* COLORADO/USC NCAAB LATE NIGHT BAILOUT (Colorado -1.5)
I think we are getting a great price here with Colorado as a mere 1.5-point favorite against USC in Friday's action out of the PAC-12 Tournament. This is just a really tough spot for the Trojans, who will be playing on no rest after last night's game against Utah went to double-overtime. USC had 3 different players play more than 40 mins and 5 guys who logged more than 30 minutes.
I just don't see the Trojans having enough gas in the tank against the Buffaloes. Colorado continued their strong play with a 61-58 win over Cal. The other big thing is how these two teams matchup. Buffaloes won both meetings in the regular-season by double-digits, winning 72-62 on the road and 80-62 at home. Give me Colorado -1.5!
|03-12-21||Pacers v. Lakers -4.5||100-105||Win||100||13 h 47 m||Show|
40* PACERS/LAKERS NBA ATS KNOCKOUT (Lakers -4.5)
I just can't help myself with the Lakers as a mere 4.5-point home favorite against the Pacers on Friday. Neither of these teams were playing great going into the break. LA had lost 6 of 8, while the Pacers were just 1-5 in their last 6. I just trust the Lakers a lot more to get this thing figured out and playing at home definitely helps matters.
LeBron just doesn't take losing lightly and he should be rested and ready to take over for LA until AD is back. Lakers were also much better in their last few games before the break once Dennis Schroder returned from a 4 game absence (LA lost all 4). Indiana just isn't playing well on either side of the ball, especially on the defensive end. In their final 5 games before the break they gave up 116.4 ppg n 53.5% shooting. Give me the Lakers -4.5!
|03-12-21||Wisconsin v. Iowa -4||57-62||Win||100||11 h 17 m||Show|
40* WISCONSIN/IOWA NCAAB ATS SLAUGHTER (Iowa -4)
I will gladly take my chances here with the Hawkeyes as a mere 4-point favorite in Friday's Quarterfinal matchup against Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament. The big concern here with Iowa is the healthy of Joe Wieskamp, but he's been seen in practice without a boot and I think there's a decent chance he plays.
Even if he can't go, I still like Iowa at this price. The Hawkeyes destroyed Wisconsin 77-62 on the road in the first meeting between the two and then won 77-73 at home in the regular-season finale. While the second meeting was much closer, Iowa did have a double-digit lead in the 2nd half of that game. Iowa is also the fresher team having a double-bye. Give me the Hawkeyes -4!
|03-12-21||North Carolina v. Florida State -2||Top||66-69||Win||100||11 h 59 m||Show|
50* N CAROLINA/FLORIDA ST *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Florida State -2)
I had Florida State as a small favorite yesterday against Duke before that game got called off due to a positive Covid test in the Blue Devils program. I feel like that only works in the Seminoles favor here, as they will be playing their first game of the ACC Tournament, while UNC is getting ready for their 3rd game in 3 days.
Tar Heels have been impressive in their first 2 games, beating Notre Dame 101-59 and Virginia Tech 81-73, but I look for them to run out of gas here against a hungry Florida State team that has not forgot about a late season loss at home to the Tar Heels. Give me the Seminoles -2!
|03-12-21||Rutgers v. Illinois -7||68-90||Win||100||9 h 6 m||Show|
40* ILLINOIS/RUTGERS NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Illinois -7)
I think we are getting a great price here with Illinois only laying 7-points against Rutgers. The Fighting Illini 11-1 over their final 12 games and really looked like a team on a mission the last couple of weeks of the regular-season.
As for Rutgers, they were able to beat Indiana 61-50 on Thursday, but that was more of just the Hoosiers being awful offensively than anything. Indiana didn't make a field goal over the final 9+ minutes of that game and were just 6-15 from the free throw line for the game. It covered up a pretty bad offensive game for the Scarlet Knights.
They just aren't going to get away with shooting as bad as they did against a team like Illinois, who can light it up offensively. I'm confident the Illini win here by double-digits. Give me Illinois -7!
|03-12-21||Ohio State v. Purdue +1.5||87-78||Loss||-110||5 h 42 m||Show|
40* PURDUE/OHIO STATE NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Purdue +1.5)
I like the value here with Purdue as a slim dog against the Buckeyes in Friday's Quarterfinal matchup in the Big Ten Tournament. Ohio State was able to hang on for a 79-75 win against Minnesota on Thursday, despite completely falling apart in the final few minutes of that game.
That's not a good sign for a team playing a depleted Minnesota team, as you really would have expected Ohio State to dominate that game, especially given how they lost their last 4 games in the regular-season.
Buckeyes just don't have a great inside presence on defense and that's a major problem against this Purdue team, which is led by 6-10 junior center Trevion Williams and 7-4 freshman Zach Edey. Those two were a big reason why the Boilermakers swept the 2-games against the Buckeyes in the regular-season. I just think the wrong team is favored, especially given how Purdue had a double-bye and Ohio State is playing on no rest. Give me the Boilermakers +1.5!
|03-11-21||South Carolina v. Ole Miss -7||59-76||Win||100||26 h 8 m||Show|
40* S CAROLINA/OLE MISS NCAAB ATS SLAUGHTER (Ole Miss -7)
I got no problem laying the 7 with Ole Miss against South Carolina in the SEC Tournament. The Rebels really came on strong in the 2nd half of the season. They went from sitting at 8-8 overall and 3-6 in SEC play to finishing the season 15-10 and 10-8 in league play.
They did only beat South Carolina by 7 in the only meeting between the two in the regular-season, but that was a bit of a misleading final, as they led by as many as 18 with just under 6 minutes to play.
Simply put, this is just not a very good Gamecocks team. They went just 1-8 in their final 9 games with the only win coming against a bad Georgia team. Their last 5 losses have been by 20 to Tennessee, by 15 to Missouri, by 21 to Miss St, by 28 to Alabama and by 28 to Kentucky. Give me Ole Miss -7!
|03-11-21||Penn State v. Wisconsin -5.5||74-75||Loss||-106||10 h 26 m||Show|
40* PENN ST/WISCONSIN NCAAB ATS KNOCKOUT (Wisconsin -5.5)
I really like the Badgers as a mere 5.5-point favorite against the Nittany Lions in Thursday's Second Round matchup with Penn State. I know Wisconsin stunk it up down the stretch, losing 5 of their last 6, but it's not as bad as it looks. They all came against the Top 4 teams in the Big Ten Standings in Iowa (2x), Michigan, Illinois and Purdue.
I think we are going to see a very motivated Wisconsin team here against a pretty average Penn State team. The Nittany Lions were able to pull off an impressive 72-66 win over Nebraska, but they had to rally from 15 down in that game. Having to use so much energy to fight back and now having to play on no rest, really makes this a difficult spot for Penn State, especially against a team like Wisconsin that wants to grind you into the ground. Give me the Badgers -5.5!
|03-11-21||Indiana v. Rutgers -2||50-61||Win||100||23 h 13 m||Show|
40* INDIANA/RUTGERS NCAAB ATS MASSACRE (Rutgers -2)
I like the value here with Rutgers as a slim 2-point favorite against Indiana in Thursday's Second Round matchup in the Big Ten Tournament. Having the Big Ten Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium would have been a big advantage for Indiana in most years, as it would have felt like a home game for them. But that's just not the case during Covid with little to no fans in attendance.
Without that, I just don't see the Hoosiers being able to pull off the small upset against the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers won both regular-season meetings, beating Indiana 74-70 on the road in the first matchup and 74-63 at home in the rematch.
Another big thing here is the healthy of this Hoosiers team. We know they won't have one of their top guards in Armaan Franklin. They could also be without starting power forward Race Thompson, who is questionable with an ankle injury. On top of all that, Rutgers has the bigs inside to make things really difficult on Indiana's best player Trayce Jackson-Davis. Give me Rutgers -2!
|03-11-21||Oregon State v. UCLA -4.5||83-79||Loss||-110||25 h 54 m||Show|
40* OREGON ST/UCLA NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (UCLA -4.5)
I'm going to take the UCLA Bruins -4.5 against the Oregon State Beavers in Thursday's Second Round matchup in the Pac-12 Tournament. I think we are a getting a big discount here with UCLA due to the fact that they closed out the regular-season on a 3-game losing streak.
Thing is, those 3 losses came against 3 really good teams in Colorado, Oregon and USC. Both games against the Buffaloes and Ducks were on the road and really should have beat the Trojans at home.
I'm confident because of how the season ended, we are going to get a max effort here from UCLA in their game against Oregon State. The Bruins did only beat the Beavers by a final of 57-52 at home in the only meeting between the two in the regular-season. However, UCLA couldn't have shot it any worse in that game. They only hit 32.7% from the field. No way they shoot that poorly again against Oregon State. It was also a tough spot, as they had a huge home game against two days prior get called off because of Covid.
Another reason this line might be a little lower than it should be, is the fact that Oregon State won 3 of their last 4, with all 3 wins coming on the road. However, those were against the likes of Cal, Stanford and Utah, none of which are on the same level as this UCLA team.
I'm also aware of the fact that Bruins star shooting guard Johnny Juzang is questionable with an ankle injury that kept him out of the USC game, but word is that he will be ready to go for this game. Even if he can't go, I still like UCLA to at this price. Give me the Bruins -4.5!
|03-11-21||Minnesota v. Ohio State -10.5||Top||75-79||Loss||-110||3 h 18 m||Show|
50* MINNESOTA/OHIO ST *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ohio State -10.5)
I got no problem laying the big number with Ohio State, as they get set to take on Minnesota in the Second Round of the Big Ten Tournament. The Gophers were able to find a way to knock off Northwestern on Wednesday, but it wasn't pretty. Minnesota scored just 51 points and shot just 36.7% from the field. If the Wildcats don't go scoreless over the final 4+ minutes they lose that game.
It was nothing new in terms of poor shooting by the Gophers. That's now 5 straight games where they have shot 37% or worse from the field. That kind of offense just isn't going to cut it against a very hungry and motivated Ohio State team that will be itching to take the floor after losing their final 4 Big Ten games to close out the regular-season.
Add in the rest edge the Buckeyes have with them getting a 1st Round bye and this has blowout written all over it. Give me Ohio State -10.5!
|03-11-21||Georgetown +9 v. Villanova||Top||72-71||Win||100||17 h 40 m||Show|
50* GTOWN/VILLANOVA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Georgetown +9)
We cashed in on the Hoyas +3.5 in yesterday's 68-49 thrashing of Marquette and will gladly fire back with Georgetown as a big dog against Villanova on Thursday. Typically I'm a little hesitant backing teams playing on no rest against a team that had a bye, but I just feel this is too good a price to pass up with the Hoyas.
The biggest thing here is Villanova is not anywhere close to full strength. They suffered a massive blow at the end of the regular-season, losing star senior point guard Collin Gillespie to a season ending injury. On top of that, they aren't expected to have sophomore guard Justin Moore, who would have been the one to fill in for Gillespie at the point.
I'm not saying Villanova can't win this game without those two, but I definitely think Georgetown has a really good shot of winning here. Give me the Hoyas +9!
|03-10-21||Nebraska +6.5 v. Penn State||66-72||Win||100||12 h 32 m||Show|
40* NEBRASKA/PENN ST NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Nebraska +6.5)
I really like the value here with Nebraska as a 6.5-point dog against the Nittany Lions. I just think there's a ton of value with this Cornhuskers team right now. Nebraska finished just 3-16 in Big Ten play a full 3 wins less than the next worst team.
However, the Cornhuskers really showed some big improvement down the stretch. They finally started to hit the 3-point shot and put up close to 77 ppg in their last 6 contests. On top of that, they nearly swept the season series with Penn State, beating the Nittany Lions on the road and losing by just 3 at home. I really think this line should be closer to 3 than 7 and I got a good feeling Nebraska wins this one outright. Give me the Cornhuskers +6.5!
|03-10-21||Notre Dame v. North Carolina -6.5||59-101||Win||100||11 h 14 m||Show|
40* NOTRE DAME/N CAROLINA NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (North Carolina -6.5)
I think we are getting a great price here with North Carolina as a 6.5-point favorite against Notre Dame. I was on the Irish yesterday and they let me down, beating an awful Wake Forest team 80-77 as a 8-point favorite. They were lucky just to win that game, as they trailed by as many as 16 in the 2nd half before eventually winning on a last second shot.
I just think the Irish had to use up a ton of energy to rally for that win against the Demon Deacons. That's a big problem with them having to play on no rest against a rested and motivated North Carolina team that really seemed to find their groove late in the year. I wouldn't be shocked if this ended up being a blowout early in favor of the Tar Heels. Give me North Carolina -6.5!
|03-10-21||Texas A&M +1.5 v. Vanderbilt||68-79||Loss||-113||9 h 17 m||Show|
40* TEXAS A&M/VANDERBILT NCAAB ATS NO-BRAINER (Texas A&M +1.5)
I will take a shot here with Texas A&M as a slim dog against Vandy in the opening round of the SEC Tournament. The Aggies are a team that are getting zero respect right now. A big reason for that is they only went 2-8 in SEC play. They also didn't play a single game in the month of February because of Covid and lost their first two games back.
While they did lose at home to Mississippi State and on the road to Arkansas, I was impressed with how well they played given the massive layoff. They could have easily won that game at home against the Bulldogs and led by as many as 14 in the 1st half in their loss to the Razorbacks.
Vandy is a team that went just 3-13 in SEC play and while they do have one of the better players in the SEC on the floor here in Scotty Pippen Jr., they lost their other stud late in the year in Dylan Disu. For a team that gave up 76.5 ppg in SEC play, I just don't think they have the scoring to advance to tomorrow. Give me the Aggies +1.5!
|03-10-21||Minnesota v. Northwestern -1.5||Top||51-46||Loss||-102||9 h 54 m||Show|
50* MINNESOTA/NORTHWESTERN *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Northwestern -1.5)
I will gladly take my chances here with Northwestern as a slim 1.5-point favorite against Minnesota in the Big Ten Tournament. The Wildcats surprised everyone when they started out 3-0 in Big Ten play, but then proceeded to lose their next 13 conference games before ending the year on a 3-game winning streak.
One of those wins was a 67-59 win on the road over these Gophers. I just don't see the outcome being much different. Minnesota completely fell apart in the 2nd half of this season. They were at one point sitting at 11-4 and ended up 13-14. They come in having lost 7 straight and its not a matter of if but when head coach Richard Pitino will be fired.
The biggest thing for Minnesota is they are really banged up. Two of their better players, Gabe Kalsheur and Liam Robbins are both out with injuries. They also could be without senior forward Brandon Johnson. Keep in mind this is a team that struggled to score even when healthy. They were also 0-10 away from home this season, losing by an average of 14.8 ppg. Give me Northwestern -1.5!
|03-09-21||Wake Forest v. Notre Dame -8||Top||77-80||Loss||-109||9 h 21 m||Show|
50* WAKE FOREST/NOTRE DAME *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Notre Dame -8)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Notre Dame laying single-digits against Wake Forest in the first round of the ACC Tournament. Nothing is a guarantee, but when you look at how bad the Demon Deacons have been and how these two teams matchup, a lot will have to wrong for the Irish to not win here by 10 or more.
Wake Forest closed out the regular-season with 6 straight losses by at least 12 points. They played about as well as they could in the regular-season finale (senior night) and still lost by 12 to Georgia Tech, who didn't have a lot to play for. Yellow Jackets also were just 4 of 13 from behind the 3-point line and still won by double-digits.
Notre Dame finished the year just 10-14 with a 7-11 mark in ACC play, but still come into this game ranked No. 67 in the country at KenPom. They played the 19th toughest schedule in the nation and were competitive in a lot of their losses. They also come in with some momentum after knocking off FSU 83-73 in the regular-season finale.
In the only meeting between these two teams this season, Notre Dame dominated Wake 79-58 and were up by as many as 28 with under 5 minutes to play. Irish should feast from behind the 3-point line, as they were No. 5 in 3-point shooting in ACC play and WF was dead last in defending the 3-pointer. Demon Deacons also foul a lot and ND as a team shoots 77% from the free throw line. Give me Notre Dame -8!
|03-08-21||St. Mary's +18 v. Gonzaga||Top||55-78||Loss||-107||12 h 43 m||Show|
50* ST. MARY'S/GONZAGA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (St. Mary's +18)
I'll take my chances here with St. Mary's at least being able to keep it close enough to cover as a 18-point dogs in the semifinals of Monday's WCC Tournament action. While Gonzaga swept the season series with the Gaels, both games St. Mary's was able to keep it very close to this number. They only lost by 14 in the first meeting at home and while they lost by 22 on the road in the rematch, it took the Bulldogs shooting 61.1% from the field to win by that margin.
You also have to keep in mind that while winning the WCC Tournament and preserving their perfect record going into the NCAA Tournament would be nice, it's not that big of a deal. Even if they were to somehow lose this game, they are still going to be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
I just think having not played now in 9 days and facing a desperate St. Mary's team that needs to win this tournament to get into the Big Dance, really increases the likelihood the Gaels came make a game of it. Give me St. Mary's +18!
|03-07-21||Penn State v. Maryland -5.5||66-61||Loss||-105||10 h 39 m||Show|
40* PENN ST/MARYLAND NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Maryland -5.5)
I will gladly take my chances here with Maryland as a 5.5-point home favorite against Penn State. I think the Terps are one of the more underrated teams in the country, in large part because the Big Ten is so loaded and they started out so slow. They also lost at Northwestern as a 4-point favorite in their last game, which I think is playing into the value here.
Thing is Maryland had won 5 straight before losing at Northwestern and that was really a game they should have won, as their defense once again was dominant, holding the Wildcats to just 36.4% shooting. That's now 6 straight games where they have held their opponent to 43% or worse from the field.
Penn State comes in off a big 84-65 home win over Minnesota, but the Gophers are arguably playing the worst basketball of any Big Ten team down the stretch. Prior to that win the Nittany Lions lost by 21 at home to Purdue. Their only other win besides Minnesota since early February is a mere 3-point win at Nebraska. Give me Maryland -5.5!
|03-07-21||Michigan v. Michigan State +8.5||Top||64-70||Win||100||7 h 12 m||Show|
50* MICH ST/MICHIGAN NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Michigan St +8.5)
I've been on the Spartans quite a bit down the stretch, as Tom Izzo once again has his squad playing their best basketball when it matters the most. I did however, stay away from Michigan State in Thursday's road game at rival Michigan. Even though the Spartans were getting double-digits, I didn't like the spot on the road against a Wolverines team that was coming off that embarrassing loss to Illinois.
It really set up a great spot and price to back Michigan State at home in the rematch with Michigan. While the Wolverines aren't just going to lay down against their rivals, this game definitely doesn't mean as much now that Michigan has wrapped up the Big Ten regular-season title. I also think cause they won that game on Thursday so easily, it makes it harder for them to get up for this rematch. Spartans desperately need a win here to boost their resume and I don't think it's out of the question that they pull off the upset. Either way I think this one goes right down to the wire. Give me Michigan State +8.5!
|03-07-21||Florida v. Tennessee -5.5||54-65||Win||100||3 h 32 m||Show|
40* FLORIDA/TENNESSEE NCAAB ATS KNOCKOUT (Tennessee -5.5)
I like the value here with the Volunteers as a 5.5-point home favorite against the Gators. Tennessee has struggled a bit here of late, losing 3 of their last 5, including a 72-77 loss at Auburn as a 8-point favorite in their last game. I just think it has the Vols a bit undervalued here in their home finale against a Florida team that has won 3 of their last 4, but are just 2-4 ATS in their last 6.
There's also a huge revenge factor here, as the Gators embarrassed Tennessee in Gainesville 75-49 earlier this season. Vols couldn't have shot it much worse in that one, as they hit a mere 29.3% from the field. Vols had won the previous 3 games in the series before that setback and are 16-5 SU in the last 21 at home against Florida. Give me Tennessee -5.5!
|03-06-21||Xavier v. Marquette -1.5||59-66||Win||100||23 h 49 m||Show|
40* XAVIER/MARQUETTE NCAAB LATE NIGHT BAILOUT (Marquette -1.5)
I think we are getting a great price here with the Golden Eagles as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against the Musketeers. I love the fact that Marquette comes in having won 3 of their last 4 with the only loss coming against maybe the most underrated team in the country in Connecticut.
The other huge thing here that I think a lot of people will overlook is the fact that Marquette has played their last 6 games on the road. I see the Golden Eagles being ecstatic to get back on their home floor and get their revenge against the Musketeers, who they barely lost to 88-91 on the road earlier this season. Speaking of close losses, 9 of Marquette's 13 losses have been by single digits.
As for Xavier, they are just 2-4 in their last 6 and yes one of those wins was a big upset at home against Creighton, but they have lost their last 3 on the road to the likes of Georgetown, Providence and St. John's. The Musketeers are also a banged up team right now. Give me Marquette -1.5!
|03-06-21||Illinois v. Ohio State -2||Top||73-68||Loss||-108||18 h 1 m||Show|
50* ILLINOIS/OHIO ST NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ohio St -2)
I can't help myself here. I'm loading up on the Buckeyes -2 at home against Illinois. I get that the Fighting Illini have played great in the 3 games without Ayo Dosunmu. They have won all 3 and the last two were road wins over Wisconsin by 5 and Michigan by 23. I just think after what they did to the Wolverines, it has them getting way too much respect here. They were a 8.5-point dog to Michigan and now are only a 2-point dog.
I think that Wolverines game was a result of Michigan just not taking Illinois seriously without Dosunmu. Thing is because of that game, that won't be the case here for Ohio State. Not that the Buckeyes were going to look past this game anyway. Ohio State is desperate to get things back on track after losing their last 3. I believe they not only win, but win going away. Give me the Buckeyes -2!
|03-06-21||USC -1 v. UCLA||64-63||Push||0||18 h 0 m||Show|
40* USC/UCLA NCAAB ATS NO-BRAINER (USC -1)
I think a lot of people are going to see UCLA as a home dog and instantly look to back the Bruins in this game. Not me. Going into last Saturday's game at Colorado, UCLA was in the drivers seat to win the Pac-12 regular-season title and get the No. 1 seed for the Pac-12 Tournament. Their path got harder following a 61-70 loss to Colorado on Saturday, but they still were in a great spot if they could beat Oregon on Wednesday.
It looked like they were going to do just that. They controlled most of the game and were up by as many as 9 with just over 11 minutes to play. Things went bad in a hurry as they were outscored 31-14 the rest of the way and lost 74-82.
I just think it's going to be really hard for UCLA to come out and be excited about this game given what's taken place the last week. Even if they were to win and Oregon somehow lost to Oregon State tomorrow, they still would lose out for the top spot because of a tie-breaker. USC on the other hand can win here and get the No. 1 seed with a Ducks loss, as they won the only meeting with Oregon. Give me USC -1!
|03-06-21||Alabama -8 v. Georgia||89-79||Win||100||16 h 48 m||Show|
40* ALABAMA/GEORGIA NCAAB ATS SLAUGHTER (Alabama -8)
I'm going to take a shot here with Alabama as a 8-point road favorite against Georgia on Saturday. While the Crimson Tide have won their last 2 and are locked into the No. 1 seed in the SEC Tournament, I don't see them looking past their regular-season finale. Head coach Nate Oats has made it clear he wants everyone to play and really wants to get his team going offensively after failing to score more than 70 in their last 3. They also know this is their last game for a week given the byes they will get in the SEC Tournament.
Getting their offense back on track against the Bulldogs doesn't figure to be a problem. The only team that ranks worse than Georgia in the SEC in defensive efficiency is Vanderbilt and in the previous meeting between these two teams back on Feb 13, Alabama scored 115 points in a 33-point blowout win. I just don't think you can play with the tempo Georgia wants to play at and be that bad defensively and expect to keep it close against this Crimson Tide team no matter the location. Give me Alabama -8!
|03-06-21||Rutgers -3 v. Minnesota||77-70||Win||100||14 h 22 m||Show|
40* MINNESOTA/RUTGERS NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Rutgers -3)
I will take my chances here with Rutgers -3 on the road against the Golden Gophers. I just think this Minnesota team is broken right now. The Gophers have went from being a team that was being projected as a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament to completely out of the picture. Minnesota has lost 6 straight coming into this game and there only hope now is to win the Big Ten Tournament next week.
This team has a horrific time scoring the basketball and are as banged up as any team in the Big Ten right now. I think if Rutgers wasn't just 2-4 in their last 6 and off an ugly 21-point loss at Nebraska, this line would be a lot higher. Two of the other other losses this stretch were at Iowa and Michigan.
The game definitely means more to the Scarlet Knights, as they are far from a lock to make the NCAA Tournament, something you know this program desperately wants given how long it's been. I just have a hard time not seeing Rutgers win this game. Give me the Scarlet Knights -3!
|03-05-21||Georgia Tech -8 v. Wake Forest||Top||75-63||Win||100||9 h 4 m||Show|
50* GA TECH/WAKE FOREST NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Georgia Tech -8)
I'll take my chances here with the Yellow Jackets as a 8-point road favorite against the Demon Deacons. These two teams are headed in complete opposite directions to close out the regular-season. Georgia Tech enters on a 5-game winning streak and have covered 6 in a row.
Wake Forest on the other hand has lost 6 straight and failed to cover 5 in a row. Demon Deacons haven't just been losing, they have been getting absolutely destroyed. All 5 losses during their 5-game skid have come by double-digits. They just have no offense to speak of. In these 5 straight losses they haven't shot better than 41% from the field and in their last 3 they have shot 36% or worse.
While the Yellow Jackets have secured a first round bye in the ACC Tournament, they still aren't a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. Simply put, this is not a game they can afford to lose. I just don't think it's asking much for Georgia Tech to win here by double-digits. Give me the Yellow Jackets -8!
|03-04-21||Texas v. Oklahoma -2||Top||69-65||Loss||-110||12 h 31 m||Show|
50* TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BIG 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH (Oklahoma -2)
I absolutely love this spot and price with the Sooners as a mere 2-point home favorite against the Longhorns. Oklahoma comes into this game having lost their last 3 with each of the last two being really close calls against rival Oklahoma State. To say the Sooners are going to be motivated for their regular-season finale at home is an understatement.
Texas is also a team that I think is a bit overvalued. The Longhorns have gone just 5-6 since opening the season 10-1 and 4 of those 5 wins have come against Kansas St (2x), TCU and Iowa State. Those 3 teams are a combined 8-39 in Big 12 play. They did beat Kansas 75-72 at home, but needed OT and trailed by as many as 14 in that contest. Give me the Sooners -2!
|03-04-21||Heat v. Pelicans -2.5||Top||103-93||Loss||-110||11 h 45 m||Show|
50* HEAT/PELICANS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Pelicans -2.5)
We successfully played against the Pelicans last night, easily cashing the Bulls +5 in Chicago's 128-124 win (wasn't as close as the final score). It was just the perfect letdown spot for New Orleans coming off that huge win at home over the Jazz and having this prime time TNT matchup on deck with Miami looming tonight.
I just think we are going to see a much more focused and determined Pelicans team in this one. The one thing you do have to concern yourself with in the last game before the all-star break is motivation, but I don't see that being a problem. Zion was so upset about how he played last night that he went back out on the floor for more shots after the game.
The Heat have been playing much better here of late, but did just have their 6-game win streak snapped last time out in a 80-94 loss to the Hawks. They just couldn't get anything going offensively and that could be a problem here as well if Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo aren't able to play. Both are questionable with knee injuries and you have to wonder if it's worth it for the Heat to play them here instead of resting them with the long layoff looming. Even if they do play, I still like the Pelicans to win and cover. Give me New Orleans -2.5!
|03-04-21||Clippers -5 v. Wizards||117-119||Loss||-110||9 h 23 m||Show|
40* CLIPPERS/WIZARDS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Clippers -5)
Regardless if Kawhi Leonard plays tonight (questionable), I really like the value with the Clippers as a mere 5-point road favorite against the Wizards. I see a very motivated LA team taking the floor in this one, as the last thing they want to do is go into the All-Star break on a 3-game losing streak. Paul George even went as far to say "It's a must-win for us...We wanna go into the break with a win, go into the break with positive...the game in Washington is a must-win"
Laying points on the road with the Clippers hasn't been a bad strategy over recent years. LA is 33-18 the last 3 seasons as a road favorite. They are a dominant 20-9 ATS last 29 times they are off an upset loss as a favorite (lost 112-117 at Boston as a 4-point favorite last time out).
Wizards are a better team than they get credit for and even with losses in their last 2 games they are 7-3 SU in their last 10. However, I think this recent run has them getting a little too much respect here. Wizards are just 1-4 ATS last 5 at home vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and LA crushed Washington 135-116 in an earlier matchup between these two teams this season. Give me the Clippers -5!
|03-03-21||Boston College +19 v. Florida State||Top||64-93||Loss||-110||11 h 1 m||Show|
50* BOSTON COLLEGE/FLORIDA ST NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Boston College +19)
I think we are getting a gift here with Boston College as a massive 19-point dog in Wednesday's game at Florida State. There's no question that the Seminoles are the better team and yes they need to win this game to stay on track to win the ACC regular-season title, but I just think it's asking a lot for them to win here by 20+ points.
Boston College comes in with a mere 2-9 record in ACC play and are just 4-13 overall. The thing is, the Eagles just recently fired head coach Jim Christian and it was pretty clear that the players had given up on Christian a while ago. All you got to do is look back at some of their games and how they played and compare that to Saturday's performance in their 94-90 win against Notre Dame in the first game under interim head coach Scott Spinelli. It was like a different team took the floor in that game for BC. I think that effort/energy carries over to this game against FSU and if the Seminoles don't take the Eagles seriously, this could be a lot closer than expected. Give me Boston College +19!
|03-03-21||Mississippi State -5 v. Texas A&M||63-57||Win||100||11 h 30 m||Show|
40* MISS ST/TEXAS A&M NCAAB NO-BRAINER (Mississippi State -5)
I got no problem laying the 5-points on the road with Mississippi State, as they visit College Station to take on Texas A&M. I like the fact that the Bulldogs will be out for revenge from a 1-point home loss to the Aggies back in January, but that's a small factor in this one.
This is 100% a play against Texas A&M given the circumstances. The Aggies didn't play a single game in the month of February, as they last took the floor against Kansas State way back on Jan. 30th. It's just near impossible for Texas A&M to come out and play well in this game after more than 30 days of no game action. Give me Mississippi State -5!
|03-03-21||Bulls +5 v. Pelicans||128-124||Win||100||29 h 43 m||Show|
40* BULLS/PELICANS NBA ATS SLAUGHTER (Bulls +5)
I'm going to take the Chicago Bulls +5 on the road against the New Orleans Pelicans. I think this is the perfect spot to fade the Pelicans. New Orleans just had arguably their biggest win of the season on Monday, as they knocked off the hottest team in the league in the Utah Jazz 129-124 as a 6.5-point dog.
Keep in mind that's a game a lot of people tuned into, as it was televised on NBATV. The betting public won't be able to help themselves. All they are going to see is the Pelicans off that big win laying what looks like a short number at home against a mediocre at best Bulls team.
What they will fail to take into account is that New Orleans is more than likely destined for a major letdown off that win. Not only will they be feeling fat and happy after that big upset over the Jazz, but they also will have a tough time not looking ahead to Thursday's game against the red-hot Heat in prime time on TNT.
Note that New Orleans went all out against the Jazz, 4 of the 5 starters played 34+ minutes with big man Steven Adams the only not to. They also played a mere 3-guys off the bench. I wouldn't be surprised if they either looked to restrict some minutes on key guys in the 1st of a back-to-back or even sit a couple stars completely.
I was on the wrong end of a horrible non-cover by Chicago in Monday's 6-point loss to the Nuggets, as the Bulls fouled down 4 with just over 1 second to play and were getting 5. Good news is Chicago is 18-5 ATS the last 2 seasons off a loss by 6 or or less, 9-1 ATS last 10 on the road vs a team from the Western Conference and 7-1 ATS last 8 as a road dog. Give me the Bulls +5!
|03-03-21||Hawks -3.5 v. Magic||Top||115-112||Loss||-106||10 h 54 m||Show|
50* HAWKS/MAGIC NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Hawks -3.5)
I really like the value here with the Hawks as a mere 3.5-point road favorite against the struggling Magic. Atlanta has been one of the biggest underachievers in the first half of the season, but I think now is a great time to buy low on them. The Hawks fired head coach Lloyd Pierce on Monday and in their first game under interim head coach Nate McMillan they beat the Heat on the road 94-80. Doing so despite Trae Young only having a mere 5-points thru the first 3 quarters.
I think the effort defensively was as good as it's been for the Hawks in that game and it's not uncommon for a team to flip the script and play with a new since of energy after a head coach gets fired. It also helps they are playing a Magic team that has not been playing well. Orlando comes in having lost 4 straight, giving up 124 or more in each of their last 3 games. They also could be down one of the better players in Evan Fournier, which would be a big loss with all the guys they already have out. Give me the Hawks -4.5!
|03-03-21||Providence v. St. John's -1.5||67-81||Win||100||28 h 41 m||Show|
40* PROVIDENCE/ST JOHN'S NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (St. John's -1.5)
I'm going to take the St. John's Red Storm -1.5 at home against the Providence Friars. I just think this is a great spot to sell high on Providence and buy low on the Red Storm.
St. John's comes into this game having lost 3 of their last 4, but could have easily gone 3-1 in this stretch, as 2 of the 3 losses were by 4 or fewer. The one that really sticks out is their most recent, which was a 58-81 thrashing on the road at the hands of Villanova.
Prior to losing 3 of 4, the Red Storm had won 6 straight, which included road wins over UConn, Marquette and Providence, so they aren't that far removed from playing really good basketball.
Not only do I like the fact that St. John's was able to beat the Friars on the road, but I also love that they have been sitting on that loss to Villanova for a week now. I full expect this team to be 100% locked in when they take the floor at Carnesecca Arena Wednesday night.
Providence has won 3 of 4, but two of those are nothing to get excited about. One was a win over UConn without their best player in James Bouknight and another was against a Depaul team that has lost 7 of 8. They did just beat Xavier by 15 at home in their most recent game, which looks really good, but that was a result of them shooting lights out.
Friars shot 54% from the field, including 11 of 21 from deep. This is a team that had shot better than 43% just once in their previous 8 games. They have also shot just 42.7% from the field in road games this season.
St. John's is a very strong 9-3 at home this season and have been a great team to back at home over the last couple of years, going 19-10 ATS on their home floor the last 2 seasons. They are also great in this spot off a big loss, as they have covered 8 of their last 9 at home off a conference loss by 10 or more.
They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS at home this season against teams like Providence who don't force many turnovers, averaging 14 or fewer turnovers/game. Friars are also 1-8 ATS last 9 games vs up-tempo teams who average 62 or more shots/game. St. John's averages 65 and play at the fastest tempo of any team in the Big East and rank 12th nationally in pace of play. Give me the Red Storm -1.5!
|03-02-21||Nuggets v. Bucks -7||128-97||Loss||-110||10 h 6 m||Show|
40* NUGGETS/BUCKS NBA ATS NO-BRAINER (Bucks -7)
I got no problem laying the 7-points with Milwaukee at home against the Nuggets. I'm still pissed about Denver pulling off that stupid cover last night against the Bulls. Nuggets were lucky not to lose that game after leading by double-digits. I just don't see Denver having enough gas in the tank here to keep it close against a Bucks team that I believe is starting to get back on track.
Not only are the Nuggets playing on no rest, this will be their 3rd road game in 4 days. A stretch that is that much more difficult when you factor in all the guys the Nuggets have been without. Bucks have won 5 straight and covered in 4 of those. They are also riding a huge wave of momentum after their comeback win at home over the Clippers last time out. Give me Milwaukee -7!
|03-02-21||Kentucky v. Ole Miss -3||Top||62-70||Win||100||10 h 3 m||Show|
50* KENTUCKY/OLE MISS NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ole Miss -3)
I love the value here with Ole Miss as a mere 3-point home favorite against Kentucky. Lot of people might be hesitant to back the Rebels after watching them lose outright at Vandy on Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite, especially given the Commodores were down their two best players.
Thing is, the Rebels really didn't have much to play for. Even though Ole Miss had won 5 of 6 coming into that game, they know their only path to the NCAA Tournament is to win the SEC Tournament. Makes it pretty easy for them to struggle to show up with the right kind of mindset against a bad Vandy team that didn't figure to put up a fight without their two best players.
I expect to see a completely different Ole Miss team when they take the floor here against Kentucky. I know the Wildcats have played better of late, but this is just not their season. Books have also continued to overvalue this team. Kentucky is just 3-9 ATS in their last 12. Give me Ole Miss -3!
|03-02-21||Duke v. Georgia Tech -1.5||77-81||Win||100||9 h 2 m||Show|
40* DUKE/GA TECH NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Georgia Tech -1.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Yellow Jackets as a slim 1.5-point home favorite against Duke. The Blue Devils have been playing better here of late and all the talk right now is what Duke has to do to make the NCAA Tournament. I'm not denying that the Blue Devils are playing better, I just think it has them overvalued here against the Yellow Jackets.
Georgia Tech is one of the better teams in the ACC that people don't know about. The Yellow Jackets are just 9-6 in league play, but could be much better as they have had a number of games not go their way late in games. They have figured out how to close games out here of late, as they come in having won 4 straight. One of those games they felt like they should have won that they didn't was a 68-75 loss at Duke earlier this season. No way they have forgot about that loss. Yellow Jackets are also 12-3 ATS last 15 at home after 2 straight games where they made 50% or more of their shots and a perfect 7-0 ATS last 3 seasons when they come in having won 3 or more games in a row. Give me Georgia Tech -1.5!
|03-02-21||Grizzlies v. Wizards +1||125-111||Loss||-107||8 h 6 m||Show|
40* GRIZZLIES/WIZARDS NBA ATS SLAUGHTER (Wizards +1)
I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the Wizards as a home dog against the Grizzlies. Washington isn't viewed as a very good team and are just 13-19 on the season. Thing is the Wizards have been playing their best basketball over the last couple of weeks. Washington is 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games.
The other big thing here is we are seeing Memphis way overvalued after their 133-84 thrashing of the Rockets on the road in their last game. That was more of Houston being an absolute mess than anything. Not saying the Grizzlies aren't a good team, but I don't think they should be favored on the road here. Wizards are 10-1 ATS last 11 home games after covering 4 of their last 5. Give me Washington +1!
|03-02-21||Wake Forest v. Pittsburgh -4.5||57-70||Win||100||7 h 3 m||Show|
40* WAKE FOREST/PITT NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Pittsburgh -4.5)
I will gladly take my chances here with Pitt as a slim 4.5-point home favorite against Wake Forest. I know the Panthers have had a couple of key guys decide to leave the team via the transfer portal, but it's not as bad as it might look. Pitt comes in having lost 5 straight and 8 of their last 9, but could easily have a winning record during this stretch. Of those 8 losses, 7 have come by 10 or fewer with 3 of them by 3 or fewer.
I just think that this team has been so close that they are going to show up here and take care of business against the Demon Deacons. I don't even know if they need their best showing to win and cover here. Wake Forest has lost 5 straight and have struggled to even keep games close. In their last 4 games they have lost by 24 at home to Duke, by 18 at home to NC State, by 21 at home to Clemson and by 38 at Virginia Tech. Give me Pittsburgh -4.5!