|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|07-17-21||Bucks v. Suns -3.5||Top||123-119||Loss||-105||12 h 48 m||Show|
50* (NBA) Bucks/Suns Game 5 MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -3.5)
We took a tough loss with the Suns +5 in Game 4, as they wound up losing by 6 after leading by as many as 9 in the 4th quarter. It was a bit of a meltdown for Phoenix once Devin Booker picked up his 5th foul early in the 4th, as Booker had been dominating up to that point.
Phoenix really should have won that game getting next to nothing out of veteran point guard Chris Paul. I just think that with the series shifting back to Phoenix, the Suns are going to not only get more out of their role players, but also I see Paul and Booker both playing well. Give me the Suns -3.5!
|07-14-21||Suns +5 v. Bucks||Top||103-109||Loss||-107||9 h 37 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Suns/Bucks MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns +5)
I will gladly take my chances with Phoenix as a 5-point dog in Game 4. I was not surprised at all at what happened in Game 3. The Bucks were in full on desperation mode to avoid going down 3-0 and were getting a big boost with the series shifting to Milwaukee.
Look for the Suns to bounce back in a big way. Neither Paul or Booker played well in Game 3. I see both of them playing better. I also think we see a lot more energy defensively from Phoenix. I also think that there's a good chance if Milwaukee does manage to win this game, the Suns will be able to keep it within the number. Give me Phoenix +5!
|07-11-21||Suns v. Bucks -4||Top||100-120||Win||100||10 h 9 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Suns/Bucks MAX UNIT Top Play (Bucks -4)
I was on the Suns in both Game 1 and Game 2. I also like Phoenix to win this series. With that said, I love this spot and price with the Bucks in Game 3, as the series shifts to Milwaukee. I know the final scores look like Phoenix dominated, but Milwaukee put a much better fight than the scores would indicate.
Not only are the Bucks going to get a big boost playing at home (mainly the role players), we are going to see Milwaukee treat this like a Game 7. They have to win this game to have any shot. It's just hard for the Suns to treat it in the same way up 2-0. I think Milwaukee wins here and the Suns take the next two to close it out in Phoenix in Game 5. Give me the Bucks -4!
|07-08-21||Bucks v. Suns -5.5||Top||108-118||Win||100||22 h 8 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Bucks/Suns MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -5.5)
I cashed Phoenix in Game 1 and will fire right back with the Suns at -5.5 in Game 2. Even though the Bucks lost Game 1 by 13-points, there's a lot of talk about how competitive Milwaukee was in defeat.
I look at it a little different. The Bucks lost by 13 despite the two teams basically shooting the same from the field (Suns 46.6% and Bucks 45.5%) and Milwaukee going +5 (16 to 11) on made 3-pointers.
Giannis was able to play Game 1 and was effective with 20 points and 17 rebounds, but he only attempted 11 shots, while Middleton took 26 and both Holiday and Lopez attempting 14. That tells me Giannis is not 100%. I also wonder how that knee is going to respond to those 35 mins he played just two days ago. Give me the Suns -5.5!
|07-06-21||Bucks v. Suns -6||105-118||Win||100||11 h 19 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Bucks/Suns Game 1 VEGAS INSIDER (Suns -6)
I'll lay the 6-points with the Suns in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Tuesday. I know the Bucks were able to advance past the Hawks without Giannis in the Eastern Conference Finals, but I give them no shot against the Suns without him. He's likely to be back at some point, but is listed as doubtful for Game 1.
I also think the Suns are much better suited to deal with the size and length of the Bucks. They have seen plenty of it in the postseason in their two series with the Lakers and Clippers. Guard play has also been a problem for Milwaukee defensively and Phoenix has two studs with Paul and Booker. I don't see this one being close at all. Give me the Suns -6!
|07-03-21||Bucks v. Hawks -2.5||Top||118-107||Loss||-110||23 h 21 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Bucks/Hawks MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks -2.5)
I really like Atlanta at -2.5 at home in Game 6 on Saturday. I think we have seen how much more home court matters when the star players aren't on the court in the last two games. Atlanta won Game 4 at home 110-88 in their first game without Trae Young. Milwaukee won Game 5 at home 123-112 in their first game without Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Antetokounmpo has been downgraded to doubtful and Trae Young is questionable. Some thought there was a chance Young was going to come back for Game 2. With Atlanta facing elimination, you have to think Young will be out there at all costs.
Even if he doesn't play (I think he will), I see this game playing out similarly to Game 4. Maybe not quite as big a blowout, but a comfortable home win to set up Game 7 on Sunday. Give me the Hawks -2.5!
|07-01-21||Hawks +2 v. Bucks||Top||112-123||Loss||-101||11 h 0 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Hawks/Bucks MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks +2)
I'm going to take Atlanta as a small dog in Game 5 on the road. After watching the Hawks dominate Game 4 at home without Trae Young, some might be thinking Milwaukee can do the same without Giannis in this one. I just don't think that will be the case.
Atlanta had no answer for Antetokounmpo. If he got to his spot, there was little to nothing they could do to stop him. If they doubled him, it would just result in an open shot for another player. I just think Milwaukee is in a lot of trouble without their former MVP to lead the way.
Young is going to be a game-time decision for the Hawks. If he plays, it's a plus, but I don't think Atlanta needs him to win this game. Give me the Hawks +2!
|06-30-21||Suns +1 v. Clippers||Top||130-103||Win||100||12 h 30 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Suns/Clippers MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns +1)
I'm going big on the Suns in Game 6 as they go to LA looking to close out the series. I did not see Game 5 going as it did. I expected a little more urgency out of Phoenix, but that just wasn't the case.
There's also not a lot you can do when the Clippers not only get a monster game out of Paul George, but also huge showings from guys like Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris and DeMarcus Cousins. All 4 of those guys were lights out from the field, as they combined to shoot 63%.
Replicating that kind of production is very unlikely. We should also see a big uptick in the energy level for the Suns. Give me Phoenix +1!
|06-29-21||Bucks -6.5 v. Hawks||88-110||Loss||-110||11 h 43 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Bucks/Hawks Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Bucks -6.5)
I have to lay the 6.5 with Milwaukee in Game 4 on the road. While I'm expecting Trae Young to suit up for Atlanta, he's not going to be playing this game at 100%. I just don't think Atlanta has enough fire-power to keep it close against this Bucks team without Young putting up crazy numbers.
Just look at Game 2, which Milwaukee won 125-91. Young only scored 15 points and yet was still the leading scorer for Atlanta. He's not only the guy that needs to score, he's the one that gets everyone else going.
Not only that, but it's pretty clear the Hawks defense isn't built to stop this Bucks' offense. Milwaukee has really scored at will in the paint and when you get easy looks like that, it makes it a lot easier to not only win, but win going away on the road. Give me the Bucks -6.5!
|06-28-21||Clippers v. Suns -5||Top||116-102||Loss||-106||11 h 24 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Clippers/Suns MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -5)
I will gladly take my chances with the Suns as a 5-point home favorite in Game 5 on Monday. Phoenix was able to win Game 4 to take a 3-1 series lead. They did so with Paul and Booker having another off night shooting. Paul was 11 for 41 (26.8%) from the field in the 2 games at LA, while Booker was just as bad at 13 for 43 (30.2%).
Phoenix as a team shot 38.9% from the field in Game 3 and 36.0% in Game 4. That's after they shot 55.1% in Game 1 and 50.0% in Game 2 at home. I know the Clippers have made some adjustments, but I think a lot of the poor shooting is just the difference of home/away.
Keep in mind this is a Suns team that is shooting 48.8% from the field for the season. If they can just get in the mid 40's they are going to run away with this thing. Give me Phoenix -5!
|06-27-21||Bucks v. Hawks +5||Top||113-102||Loss||-112||11 h 2 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Bucks/Hawks MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks +5)
I love the value here with Atlanta as a 5-point home dog in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. If you look at the Game 2 line, which was Bucks -8 at home, this line should be closer to 2.5-3 at Atlanta when you factor in the home court edge. The line we are seeing is more like if they were playing on a neutral court.
It's just a big overreaction to Milwaukee's blowout win in Game 2. What people overlook with that result, is that was a clear letdown spot for Atlanta who had just stole Game 1. Not only that game, but they had just played that Game 7 against the 76ers two days prior to Game 1.
Milwaukee was simply the more motivated team in Game 2. I also think having Scott Foster referee that game, was a big advantage for the Bucks, as he lets a lot more go, which doesn't favor the smaller Young. Look for Young to not only get a few more calls and get back to that guy that dominated Game 1 with 48 points. He also should get plenty of help from the role players playing at home. Give me the Hawks +5!
|06-26-21||Suns -1 v. Clippers||Top||84-80||Win||100||12 h 43 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Suns/Clippers MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -1)
I really like Phoenix to bounce back from a really poor showing in Game 3 to win Game 4 and take a commanding 3-1 series lead. I know LA ended up running away with a 106-92 win in Game 3, but let's not forget that the Suns had the lead at the half in that one.
When you look at how poorly Phoenix shot the ball, they were lucky it was as close as it was. Suns were just 35-90 (38.9%) from the field and shot a mere 31.3% from behind the 3-point line. Chris Paul was 5 of 19 (26.3%) from the field and Devin Booker was an even worse 5 of 21 (23.8%).
I'm pretty confident Paul and Booker shoot considerably better in Game 3 and I just don't think LA will be able to keep pace without Kawhi Leonard. They may also be without a key piece in Marcus Morris. Give me the Suns -1!
|06-24-21||Suns -1 v. Clippers||Top||92-106||Loss||-109||22 h 28 m||Show|
50* (NBA) Suns/Clippers MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -1)
I will gladly take my chances with the Suns at -1 in Game 3. I took the Clippers in both Game 1 and 2, just missing out on a cash in Game 1 and easily winning in Game 2. I just thought the Suns were being a bit overpriced with Chris Paul out.
I don't know if it's cause the Clippers have been down 0-2 in each of their first two series and came back to make a series of it, but LA should be a be a bigger dog with Paul expected to return. Especially with Kawhi still out for the Clippers.
You also can't overlook the way that Phoenix was able to steal Game 2. Not only Ayton's last second dunk for the win, but Paul George's two critical missed free throws right before that. Losing like that is brutal and can be really hard to bounce back from.
Phoenix has also shown the want and the ability to finish off teams when they get up in a series. I'm confident there is zero overlooking this game for the Suns. Give me Phoenix -1!
|06-23-21||Hawks +8 v. Bucks||Top||116-113||Win||100||11 h 33 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - East Conference Finals PLAY OF THE MONTH (Hawks +8)
I just feel like 8-points is way too much for Atlanta to be catching in Game 1 against the Bucks. Milwaukee should win the series, but there's no reason to think the Hawks aren't going to give them a run for their money.
I think a lot of people credit Atlanta being in the Eastern Conference Finals more to the 76ers collapsing than giving them the props they deserve for how they are playing. Trae Young has been sensational. That's a tough 76ers team to score on with all their size and he wasn't deterred.
I also think people are quick to forget just how fortunate the Bucks were in getting to this series. Injuries to Harden and Irving are the only reason Milwaukee is still playing. If they don't get hurt, Bucks probably get swept or lose in 5 and everyone is talking about how they need to blow it all up.
Lastly, I just trust the Hawks a little more here to show up with the right mindset. Seeing how little respect they are getting with this huge line and hardly anyone picking them to win the series, they should have a chip on their shoulder. Milwaukee on the other hand just beat the team that everyone thought was going to win it all. Might be a little harder for them to bring that intensity. Give me the Hawks +8!
|06-22-21||Clippers +5.5 v. Suns||Top||103-104||Win||100||11 h 23 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Clippers/Suns MAX UNIT Top Play (+5.5)
We took a bit of a tough beat on the Clippers +4 in Game 1, but I saw enough that I liked with LA to put up some big cash on them in Game 2 at +5.5. The Suns shot 55% from the field and got a triple-double from Devin Booker, who finished with 40 points, 13 rebounds, 11 assists.
Yet it was a 2-point game with less than 25 seconds to play. That to me is a good sign for the Clippers being able to make the adjustments (something they have been great at in these playoffs) needed to not only cover, but even up the series 1-1 with a win.
Booker may play well again in Game 2, but the chances of him replicating the box score from Game 1 is highly unlikely.
Clippers got big games from George (34 points) and Jackson (24 points), but DeMarcus Cousins is the only other guy who finished in double-figures with 11. Mann, who had that monster Game 6 against Utah, only played 27 minutes because of foul trouble. He was 3 for 4, including 3 for 3 from 3. They have to do a better job of getting him more involved while he's playing like this.
If Chris Paul was playing, this would be a different story. Give me the Clippers +5.5!
|06-20-21||Hawks +7 v. 76ers||Top||103-96||Win||100||10 h 30 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Hawks/76ers Game 7 MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks +7)
I've had a pretty good feel for this series, cashing the Hawks +6 in Game 5 and the 76ers -3 in Game 6. Given the number, I can't help myself but to go big on Atlanta +7 in Game 7. The home team has historically had the edge in Game 7, but not so much of late. Since 2016, the home team is just 8-7 SU in Game 7 and a miserable 4-11 ATS (2-10 L12).
You also got to look at just how close these last 3 games have been at the end. Since the 76ers 16-point win in Game 3, the last 3 games have been decided by a combined 11 points with no single margin greater than 5. With that said, I not only think the Hawks can keep this close, but I wouldn't be shocked if they won outright.
While Philly was able to keep the series alive with a 104-99 win in Game 6, I think it says a lot that Atlanta was able to keep it close with no one stepping up to help Trae Young. He had 34 points and the next best was 17 from Huerter. Not to mention it wasn't anywhere close to Young's best, as he was just 13 of 30 from the field. Give me the Hawks +7!
|06-20-21||Clippers +4 v. Suns||114-120||Loss||-109||6 h 56 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Clippers/Suns VEGAS INSIDER (Clippers +4)
I'll take my chances with the Clippers as a 4-point road dog in Game 1 against the Suns. I know Chris Paul is just a piece to Phoenix's success, but I believe he's the most important piece. It's not so much his scoring, though it's been up in the playoffs, but his ability to run the offense and get guys easy looks. He's also the guy everyone looks to in tough situations. Not having him out there is a massive loss.
I also think it's a tough spot for the Suns due to the fact that they haven't played in a week since their 4-game sweep of the Nuggets. The rest is great for the body, but no always great for the mind and mechanics. Clippers on the other hand are riding a wave of momentum after taking out the Jazz without Kawhi. I think LA is in prime position to steal Game 1. Give me the Clippers +4!
|06-19-21||Bucks v. Nets -1.5||Top||115-111||Loss||-110||10 h 14 m||Show|
5* (NBA) - Bucks/Nets Game 7 MAX UNIT Top Play (Nets -1.5)
I love the Nets as a slim -1.5 home favorite in Game 7 against the Bucks. The home team has historically owned Game 7 and I think that will be the case here. Milwaukee played really well at home in Game 6 to keep the series alive, but the Bucks don't figure to get the kind of production out of guys not named Antetokounmpo on the road.
At the same time, you can expect more out of the role players for Brooklyn. I also think we could see Harden give a little more than he has, given this is a winner take all game. He was definitely more of a factor in his second game back and as long as he doesn't re-injure that hamstring, it's going to get better and better each day.
More than anything, I'm betting on Kevin Durant to deliver the performance needed to get Brooklyn the win. We saw him put this team on his back in Game 5 and he's more than capable of shouldering the load. Give me the Nets -1.5!
|06-18-21||76ers -3 v. Hawks||Top||104-99||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - 76ers/Hawks MAX UNIT Top Play (76ers -3)
I'll take my chances here with the 76ers as a slim 3-point road favorite in Game 6. All the talk right now is about how Philadelphia blew that 26-point lead in Game 5. While I definitely enjoyed having the Hawks +6, I'm not writing the 76ers off like others.
Not enough credit is being given to Atlanta's shot making. The Hawks were 13 of 16 from the field in the 4h quarter and it's not like they were all easy looks at the basket. Yes the 76ers played poorly down the stretch, but I still like what I saw from this team for the majority of that game.
One thing is for sure, if the 76ers get up big at any point in the rest of this series, they will not take their foot off the gas. I feel good about Philly not only winning this game, but winning it rather convincingly. Give me the 76ers -3!
|06-17-21||Nets +6 v. Bucks||89-104||Loss||-109||10 h 33 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Nets/Bucks VEGAS INSIDER (Nets +6)
This almost looks too good to be true with Brooklyn catching 6-points in Game 6, but I just can't help myself. I just really question the psyche of the Bucks after how they lost in Game 5. Milwaukee was in complete control of that game to start, leading 29-15 at the end of the 1st quarter and up by 16 at the half. Only to lose 108-114.
Durant was sensational, scoring 49 points with 17 rebounds and 10 assists. No one may be better suited to shoulder the load than this guy. Having Harden helps. I know he's playing at less than 100%, but just his presence on the court is huge for this team. I also got to think he's going to do a little better than his 5 points on 1 of 10 shooting.
I really think given how Game 5 ended that the series will end with a Nets win tonight, but no way I'm passing up on 6-points. Give me Brooklyn +6!
|06-16-21||Hawks +6.5 v. 76ers||Top||109-106||Win||100||10 h 43 m||Show|
50* (NBA) Hawks/76ers MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks +6.5)
I'll take my chances with Atlanta as a 6.5-point road dog in Game 5. The series may be tied up at 2-2 and headed back to Philly, but the Hawks are the team with all the momentum. Atlanta outscored the 76ers 54-38 in the 2nd half of their 103-100 come from behind win in Game 4.
While Trae Young had 25 points and 18 assists, he shot just 8 of 26 from the field and 3 for 11 from behind the 3-point line. I think it says a lot how he can impact a game that much even when he's not shooting great. Have to think Young will be a little more efficient in this one.
The other huge thing here that I think should have this line lower, Joel Embiid is clearly not 100%. That torn meniscus in his knee is really starting to cause him problems. I just don't think that's something that's going to all the sudden feel better on just 1 day of rest. Keep in mind he had two days to recover from Game 3 to Game 4. Give me the Hawks +6.5!
|06-15-21||Bucks v. Nets +4.5||Top||108-114||Win||100||11 h 8 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Bucks/Nets MAX UNIT Top Play (Nets +4.5)
No Kyrie. No Harden. How could the Nets possibly win this game without their two superstars? This is what everyone is thinking after Milwaukee's 107-96 win in Game 3 to even the series at 2-2.
I believe we are seeing a big overreaction with this line. I just don't think the Bucks should be laying almost 5-points on the road. For as much as Milwaukee "dominated" Game 3, they only won by 11 with Brooklyn having an awful night offensively. Durant scored 28. The only other player was Irving with 11 and he played a total of 17 mins.
I believe a lot of that is as simple as the impact being on the road has on the role players. I'm expecting a monster game from KD, but I also think Blake Griffin and Joe Harris will play big roles. I also think there will be an other guy step up and give them some scoring.
At the same time, look for some regression from the Bucks role players on the road. You also got to think a few more calls go in Brooklyn's favor in front of the home crowd. Give me the Nets +4.5!
|06-14-21||Jazz v. Clippers -4.5||Top||104-118||Win||100||13 h 40 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Monday MAX UNIT Top Play (Clippers -4.5)
I will roll the dice with the Clippers as a 4.5-point home favorite in Game 4. This is just one of those series where you almost expect the home team to win every game. Utah won the first two game at home and LA responded with a 132-106 win in Game 3.
As is the case for just about every team, the big difference between playing at home and on the road is the play of your role players. Utah got 30 from Mitchell, but no other player reached 20. They also lost Game 3 by 26, despite making 19 and shooting 43% from behind the 3-point line.
That tells me the Clippers defense is making it hard for them inside and it's a dangerous thing to live and die by the 3-pointer on the road. I wouldn't be shocked if this wasn't another blowout win. Give me LA -4.5!
|06-13-21||Nets -2 v. Bucks||Top||96-107||Loss||-102||6 h 17 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Sunday MAX UNIT Top Play (Nets -2)
I love the Nets as a slim 2-point road favorite in Game 4 against the Bucks. While Milwaukee was able to avoid going down 3-0 with a 86-83 win in Game 3, there was a lot not to like with the Bucks in that victory. Milwaukee just doesn't have enough offense outside of their two stars Antetokounmpo and Middleton.
The two combined for 68 points with each going for more than 30 in Game 3 and yet they still only managed 86 points. The same output they posted in their 125-86 loss in Game 3. I just think Antetokounmpo's inability to shoot from outside really hurts this team. There's also zero chance the Nets are scoring anywhere close to 83 points in this one. Durant and Irving are too good. I not only think Brooklyn wins, but I wouldn't be shocked if this was a blowout. Give me the Nets -2!
|06-12-21||Jazz v. Clippers -4.5||106-132||Win||100||11 h 24 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Jazz/Clippers VEGAS INSIDER (Clippers -4.5)
I will gladly take my chances with the Clippers as a small 4.5-point home favorite against the Jazz. Utah has a 2-0 series lead, but it's not like they have dominated. Jazz won Game 1 112-109 and Game 2 117-111. That's with Donovan Mitchell scoring 45 and 37 points.
With the series shifting to LA and the Clippers backs firmly against the wall, I like them to not only win Game 3 but to win it convincingly. If you remember, whenever LA needed a win in their previous series against the Mavs they got the job done. I think the Clippers will have a better game plan for Mitchell and we will see Utah's shooting go down a bit on the road. Give me the Clippers -4.5!
|06-11-21||76ers -1 v. Hawks||Top||127-111||Win||100||10 h 10 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Friday MAX UNIT Top Play (76ers -1)
I really like the value here with the 76ers at basically a pick'em on the road in Game 3. Since the Hawks led 74-54 at the half in Game 1, Philadelphia has outscored Atlanta 188-156 (+32). After that loss in Game 1, the 76ers really dominated from the start in Game 2. They held the Hawks to 20 points in the 1st quarter and 18 in the 4th quarter.
Philadelphia is also going to be extremely motivated to get back the home court advantage. As far as Embiid, he's clearly not limited by his knee. Embiid had 40 points and 13 boards in Game 2.
I like Trae Young and this Hawks team, but playing a team like the 76ers is where their inexperience in the playoffs could really hurt them. I just don't know if I'm with everyone else on how good this Atlanta team is. Seems to me they are getting a lot of love from eliminating a Knicks team that was destined to struggle in the postseason. Give me the 76ers -1!
|06-10-21||Clippers v. Jazz -3||Top||111-117||Win||100||12 h 25 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Thursday MAX UNIT Top Play (Jazz -3)
We suffered a tough 1/2-point loss on the Jazz -3.5 in Game 1, but will not hesitate to take Utah at -3 in Game 2. The Jazz couldn't have started much worse in Game 1, scoring just 18 points in the 1st quarter and trailing by as many as 14 before winning 112-109.
After getting a chance to make some adjustments at the half, Utah outscored the Clippers 32-19 in the 3rd quarter. They also won that game despite an off-night shooting. While they did make 17 3-pointers, they shot 50, which is only 34%. They also shot just 40% from the field overall.
Let's also not forget how tough it is to play in Utah. The Jazz have a massive home-court edge, which is why I think they win here and wouldn't be surprised if LA came back and won the next two at home. Give me Utah -3!
|06-10-21||Nets v. Bucks -3.5||83-86||Loss||-105||10 h 35 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Bucks -3.5)
I'll take my chances with Milwaukee in Game 3 at home against the Nets. It will be tough for a lot of people to back the Bucks here after watching them get annihilated 125-86 in Game 2 on Monday. Thing is, losing like that makes me like Milwaukee even more. Not only are we going to get some value on the line, but we also know that the Bucks are going to treat this like it's Game 7 of the NBA Finals. Lose here and you can stick a fork in them.
I definitely think Milwaukee is better than they showed in their two games in Brooklyn. I wouldn't be surprised if the Nets don't lose at home this entire playoffs , especially if Harden comes back soon.
Lets also not forget the Nets went up 2-0 at home on Boston and went on to lose Game 3 119-125 as a 7-point favorite. Give me the Bucks -3.5!
|06-09-21||Nuggets +6 v. Suns||98-123||Loss||-105||12 h 27 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Nuggets/Suns VEGAS INSIDER (Nuggets +6)
I'll take my chances with the Nuggets as a 6-point road dog in Game 2 against the Suns. It just didn't look like Denver brought the right mindset into Game 1 and things really derailed for them in the 2nd Half. Nuggets had the lead at the half before getting outscored 65-47 in the last two quarters.
I think we are going to see the Nuggets really slow things down and get Jokic even more involved. He had 22 points and 9 boards in Game 1, but shot just 10 of 23 and only had 3 assists.
I also don't think the Suns are going to have 4 different guys score 20+ points. Phoenix also had a ridiculous 20-6 edge in free throw attempts, outscoring the Nuggets by 12 at the foul line. I'll take the points, but I like Denver to win here. Give me Nuggets +6!
|06-08-21||Clippers v. Jazz -3.5||Top||109-112||Loss||-107||24 h 30 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Tuesday MAX UNIT Top Play (Jazz -3.5)
I'll take my chances with Utah as a slim 3.5-point home favorite against the Clippers. No one wants to believe in the Jazz and I think it creates value with them in this spot. With a spread of just 3.5, we basically just need Utah to win. They are 33-6 on their home floor this year.
This is also a great fade spot for the Clippers coming off that Game 7 against the Mavs. Not only that they were facing elimination in the last two games in that series. It would make sense they come out flat in Game 1 on the road. Give me the Jazz -3.5!
|06-06-21||Hawks v. 76ers -2.5||Top||128-124||Loss||-110||20 h 53 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Hawks/76ers MAX UNIT Top Play (76ers -2.5)
I can't help myself but to go big on the 76ers in Game 1 of their series against the Hawks on Sunday. Regardless if Embiid plays (I'm assuming he won't), I'm confident Philadelphia will hold serve at home.
The biggest thing for me is I just think the Hawks are getting way too much respect from the oddsmakers right now. A lot of that is the perception on this team after their convincing 4-1 series win over the Knicks in the first round.
I said it from the start with New York. I did not think the Knicks were as good as people thought. There regular-season success just doesn't translate to the playoffs because everyone plays hard in the postseason.
76ers got more than enough weapons without Embiid to dominate this game and if he plays they got no chance. Give me Philadelphia -2.5!
|06-05-21||Bucks v. Nets -3.5||Top||107-115||Win||100||24 h 16 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Bucks/Nets NBA Playoffs PLAY OF THE MONTH (Nets -3.5)
I love Brooklyn -3.5 at home in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference Semifinal matchup with the Bucks. I not only think the Nets take a 1-0 series lead, I could easily see them winning this game by double-digits.
Milwaukee is a good team, but I think they are a little overvalued coming off their sweep of the Heat. The Bucks definitely looked impressive, but you can't overlook how bad Miami shot the ball in that series. The Heat shot 39.5% from the field for the series.
They also go from facing a team that's only superstar was Jimmy Butler, to facing a Nets team that has 3 of the best players in the game in Durant, Irving and Harden.
Milwaukee did win 2 of 3 in the regular-season, taking the last two in the series at home. It took all they had to get those two wins and the Nets didn't have Harden. Brooklyn won at home without Irving. Give me the Nets -3.5!
|06-02-21||Hawks v. Knicks -1||Top||103-89||Loss||-110||10 h 26 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Hawks/Knicks MAX UNIT Top Play (Knicks -1)
I've had a lot of success in this series. I passed on Game 1 to just get a feel for the matchup. I won and covered with the Knicks -2 in Game 2 and then cashed on the Hawks -4 and -4.5 in Games 3 and 4.
I will keep on firing in this series, as I absolutely love the value here with the Knicks -1 at home facing elimination down 3-1 in the series. I've said I think NY is a bit overvalued because their regular-season record is more off of effort than it is talent, that doesn't mean they aren't a good team.
If they can just get their offense going, the energy at the Garden combined with the effort defensively, should keep the Hawks offense in check. Julius Randle by far had his best game of the series in Game 4. I think he breaks out with a huge game here, as I could see the Knicks blowing this thing wide open. Give me New York -1!
|06-02-21||Wizards +6 v. 76ers||112-129||Loss||-102||10 h 35 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Situational VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Wizards +6)
I think because the 76ers are up 3-1 in the series and playing at home, it has Philadelphia way overvalued in Game 5. More than likely the 76ers find a way to win one of these next 3 games, but I'm not 100% convinced they will.
If Embiid doesn't come back (doubtful Game 5), Washington could easily win 4 straight and take the series. That's how huge Embiid is to the 76ers success. The Wizards had no answer for him in the first 3 games. His absence completely changes the mindset of Washington. They have to really think they can do this with him out.
I just think this line should be closer to -3 without Embiid. Keep in mind the 76ers were -8 in Game 1 and -8.5 in Game 2 with Embiid on the floor. Give me the Wizards +6!
|06-01-21||Lakers v. Suns -5||85-115||Win||100||13 h 34 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Lakers/Suns VEGAS INSIDER (Suns -5)
Nothing is a sure thing when LeBron is involved, but I feel pretty confident that LA will lose this series if AD doesn't come back. As good as LeBron is, it's asking too much from him to carry this team without Davis on the floor, especially against a top tier team like the Suns.
I also love that the Suns have Chris Paul. He's going to make sure that no one on Phoenix takes this game lightly because AD isn't playing. He will have them 100% locked in to take care of business and go up 3-2 in this series. It's really a must-win game for Phoenix if they want to win the series. There's no guarantee they can beat LA on the road without AD, especially in a close out game. Suns get the job done. Give me Phoenix -5!
|06-01-21||Blazers v. Nuggets -2||140-147||Win||100||12 h 34 m||Show|
40* (NBA) Blazers/Nuggets ATS NO-BRAINER (Nuggets -2)
I'll take my chances with the Nuggets winning the all important Game 5 at home on Tuesday. I'm shocked that Denver isn't a bigger home favorite. I know the Blazers just won Game 4 by 20, but it was pretty clear that the Nuggets just didn't have that same energy we saw in Games 2 and 3 after they lost Game 1.
Denver did their job and got back home court. If there was a game they were going to come out flat it was Game 5. Losing by 20 looks bad, but it also lights the fire that much more. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Nuggets controlled this game from start to finish. Give me Denver -2!
|05-31-21||Jazz v. Grizzlies +5.5||Top||120-113||Loss||-102||13 h 32 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Jazz/Grizzlies MAX UNIT Top Play (Grizzlies +5.5)
We took a tough loss on Memphis in Game 3 at basically the same price, as the Grizzlies lost by double-digits after leading in the final 5 minutes. Give Utah credit for how they closed out that game, but I think Memphis showed a lot fighting back to take that late lead after really not playing up to their potential for the majority of that game.
Also not a lot you can do with Utah making 19 3's on 44% shooting. Memphis only shot 43% from the field and 32% from deep. I think there's a good chance we see the Grizzlies shoot better in Game 4, while the Jazz regress a little bit. I like the Grizzlies to win this game, but I'll take the points for a little added insurance. Give me Memphis +5.5!
|05-30-21||Nets -7 v. Celtics||Top||141-126||Win||100||21 h 26 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Sunday MAX UNIT Top Play (Nets -7)
I love the Nets to blowout the Celtics in Game 4. Boston played a near perfect game and got 50 from Jason Tatum and still almost lost Game 3 at home. I just don't see the Celtics doing what they did offensively in Game 4.
Brooklyn got the wakeup call they needed in Game 3. They are going to be 100% locked in on both sides of the ball in this one. The Celtics simply don't have the talent to make a game of it. Look for the Nets to pull away and win this one by double-digits. Give me Brooklyn -7!
|05-30-21||Knicks v. Hawks -4.5||96-113||Win||100||15 h 26 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Hawks -4.5)
I will gladly take my chances with the Hawks as a 4.5-point home favorite against the Knicks in Game 4. We won with Atlanta in Game 3, as the Hawks went on to win 105-94. I backed Atlanta in that game because I just don't trust this Knicks team in the playoffs. I just feel like teams coached by Thibs are extremely overrated in the playoffs.
They play hard defense in the regular-season, which leads to a lot of wins, but everyone plays hard defense in the playoffs. Knicks also are struggling to score. Julius Randle has been a complete non-factor. Outside of Rose, no one is doing much.
Trae Young is the best player on the floor and he seems built for this stage. I just don't see the Hawks losing at home here. Give me Atlanta -4.5!
|05-29-21||Jazz v. Grizzlies +5||Top||121-111||Loss||-101||36 h 8 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Jazz/Grizzlies MAX UNIT Top Play (Grizzlies +5)
I will take a shot with the Grizzlies as a 5-point home dog against the Jazz in Game 3. Utah won Game 2 141-129 to even the series at 1-1. A lot of people will attribute the Jazz winning Game 2 to the return of Donovan Mitchell.
While Mitchell played great in his first game back from a long absence, it was just one of those nights for the entire Jazz team. Everything they threw at the rim was going in. Utah shot 54.4% from the field and were 19-39 (48.7%) from behind the 3-point line.
What people overlook is that the Grizzlies also finished that game shooting 54.1% from the field. The only real difference in the game was 3-point shooting. Grizzlies made 11 fewer 3's going just 8-23 (34.8%) from deep.
With the series shifting from Utah to Memphis, we should see the Jazz's 3-point shooting regress and for the Grizzlies to be a little better. I would not be surprised at all if Memphis won this game. Give me the Grizzlies +5!
|05-29-21||76ers v. Wizards +5.5||132-103||Loss||-100||33 h 24 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Wizards +5.5)
I'll roll the dice with the Wizards as a 5.5-point home dog against the 76ers in Game 3 on Saturday. I'm pretty confident Philly is going to win this series, but I also don't think Washington is going to go down without a fight. Not with two superstars.
Bradley Beal has been great in the first two games. He put up 33 in Game 1 and followed it up with another 33 in Game 2. He's shot 53.3% from the field in the series, despite going a mere 2-12 (16.7%) from behind the 3-point line.
I'm excited to see what we get out Russell Westbrook. Not only does he desperately want to help his team avoid a 0-3 hole, but I see him coming out with a chip on his shoulder after how mad he was about the popcorn incident in Game 2.
Philadelphia's offense is also just not the same on the road as it is at home. 76ers are scoring close to 118 ppg at home compared to just 110 ppg on the road. Give me the Wizards +5.5!
|05-28-21||Clippers -2 v. Mavs||118-108||Win||100||24 h 45 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Late Night VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Clippers -2)
I'll take my chances with the Clippers finding a way to win Game 3 and avoid going down 0-3 in the series to the Mavs. Props to Dallas for taking Game 1 and 2 on the road, but they far from dominated.
I just think the Clippers are going to do a better job defensively than they have. After letting Dallas shoot 50% in Game 1, the Mavs shot 58.5% in Game 2. Some of that is the Mavs just made shots. Just because they are going home, doesn't mean they are going to be better offensively than they have been.
The Clippers are just too talented a team to go down 0-3. Mavs are also a young team that maybe doesn't know the importance of not taking your foot off the gas. Give me Dallas -2!
|05-28-21||Knicks v. Hawks -4||Top||94-105||Win||100||21 h 13 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Knicks/Hawks MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks -4)
I love the Hawks at -4 in Game 3 against the Knicks on Friday. I thought Atlanta played exceptionally well on the road in the first two games of this series. They were dangerously close to going up 2-0 and that was with New York in a must-win situation.
I like Thibs, but I think his teams are overrated in the playoffs. The biggest reason they are so good in the regular-season, they play with playoff-like intensity every single game. You can win a lot of regular-season games on just effort. In the playoffs, everyone is playing at that level.
I loved them with their backs against the wall at home in Game 2, but I think the Knicks are going to struggle to keep this one close. Give me the Hawks -4!
|05-27-21||Nuggets v. Blazers -3.5||Top||120-115||Loss||-105||12 h 12 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Thursday MAX UNIT Top Play (Blazers -3.5)
I absolutely love the Blazers as a slim 3.5-point home favorite in Game 3 of their first round series with the Nuggets. Portland won Game 1 of the series 123-109, but as expected Denver came back with all they had and evened up the series with a 128-109 win in Game 2.
I just don't think the Nuggets are going to be able to go on the road and keep it close against what I feel is a much deeper and talented Blazers team. Denver has had no answer for Damian Lillard, who is averaging 38 ppg and 11.5 apg in the series.
I look for Lillard to keep doing what he does, but we should also see an uptick in production from the role players in front of the home crowd. Opposite for Denver. Look for their role players to struggle a little more on the road. Give me the Blazers -3.5!
|05-27-21||Bucks v. Heat +2||113-84||Loss||-113||9 h 10 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Heat +2)
I will take a shot with the Heat in Game 3 against the Bucks. It's not Game 7, but this is a MUST WIN for Miami after losing the first two games in Milwaukee. Heat fall down 0-3 in the series, they are done for.
As bad as Miami looked in their 98-132 loss in Game 2, there wasn't a lot they could do given the 46-point haymaker the Nets landed in the 1st quarter. You never expect a team to start that bad, but you have to wonder if Miami didn't suffer a mental letdown after that heartbreaking 2-point loss in OT in Game 1.
I also think it's a little harder on the Bucks to come out swinging after a blowout win like that in Game 2. I certainly don't see them making another 22 3-pointers in Game 3. I just trust Miami to deliver in this spot. Give me the Heat +2!
|05-26-21||Hawks v. Knicks -2||Top||92-101||Win||100||10 h 51 m||Show|
50* (NBA) Hawks/Knicks MAX UNIT Top Play (Knicks -2)
I will gladly take my chances with the Knicks as a slim 2-point home favorite in Game 2. Atlanta won Game 1 107-105, which means New York will be desperate to get this thing tied up 1-1 as they head to Atlanta for Game 3 on Sunday.
All the talk from Game 1 is about how good Trae Young was for the Hawks. He was special. Young had 32 points with 10 assists and 7 rebounds. For Young to play that well and New York's star player Julius Randle to have only 15 points on 6-23 shooting, you would expect the Hawks to win by more.
I just think the Knicks are poised to not only win Game 2, but win this one going away. Give me New York -2!
|05-25-21||Celtics v. Nets -9.5||108-130||Win||101||10 h 27 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Nets -9.5)
I got no problem laying the 9-points with the Nets at home in Game 2 against the Celtics. Brooklyn won Game 1 by 11 points 104-93. They did so after a very sluggish start. Nets were a different team in the 2nd half, outscoring Boston 57 to 40.
They also won by double-digits with Durant, Irving and Harden going a combined 5-24 (20.8%) from behind the 3-point line.
I don't see those 3 shooting as poorly in Game 2. On the flip side, I think people are underestimating this Brooklyn defense. Jason Tatum had 22 points, but he had to work for 22 and wasn't that efficient (6 for 20). No other Celtics player had more than 17. Look for the Nets to continue to focus on Tatum and make the other guys try to beat them. I don't think they can. Give me the Nets -9.5!
|05-24-21||Blazers v. Nuggets -1.5||109-128||Win||100||13 h 8 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Blazers/Nuggets Vegas STEAMROLLER (Nuggets -1.5)
I will take my chances with the Nuggets as a slim -1.5 home favorite against the Blazers in Game 2. Portland got the best of Denver in Game 1, winning 123-109. It was a great performance by Portland, who shot 47% from the field and 48% from behind the 3-point line. They also were 18 of 19 from the foul line, while Denver was a mere 4 of 8. I just think everything that could have went right for Portland, did in Game 1. I'm confident the Nuggets bounce back and send this series back to Portland tied up 1-1. Give me Denver -1.5!
|05-23-21||Lakers v. Suns -2.5||Top||90-99||Win||100||30 h 42 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Lakers/Suns MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -2.5)
I love the Suns as a mere 2.5-point home favorite against the Lakers in Game 1 of their series that starts on Sunday. I really expected more out of the Lakers in their play-in game against the Warriors. Yes they were able to win, but it was a struggle. LeBron hit the big shot at the end, but still only finished with 22 points on 7 of 17 shooting. The explosiveness just wasn't there.
I also think there could be a bit of an emotional letdown for the Lakers. I know it wasn't do or die in their game against the Warriors, but that was a huge game for them.
You also have to look at the Suns. Phoenix nearly passed the Jazz for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. Like the Warriors, the Suns can get after you defensively. I also think they got a big edge here in guard play with Chris Paul and Devin Booker. Add in the home court and I just think the Suns will have no problem getting a win in Game 1. Give me Phoenix -2.5!
|05-23-21||Wizards v. 76ers -7||118-125||Push||0||27 h 12 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Wizards/76ers Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (76ers -7)
I will roll the dice here with the 76ers as a 7-point home favorite against the Wizards. I've been backing Washington a lot of late, but this is one spot I will go against them. Washington lost to the Celtics on Tuesday for the No. 7 seed, but came back on Thursday to blowout the Pacers for the No. 8 seed.
I just think this is a big letdown spot for the Wizards after just playing in a win or go home game a couple of days ago. Not to mention they are on the road against a very good 76ers team that I think doesn't get near the hype it deserves. A lot of that is just no one thinks anyone is getting in the way of the Nets in the east. Philly is loaded, healthy and extremely tough to beat at home. I see them winning here by double-digits rather easily. Give me the 76ers -7!
|05-22-21||Mavs v. Clippers -5||Top||113-103||Loss||-110||18 h 10 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Mavs/Clippers MAX UNIT Top Play (Clippers -5)
I love the Clippers as a mere 5-point home favorite against the Mavs in Game 1 of their playoff series. I don't think LA is getting enough respect not just in this game, but just in general. There's just not the hype around this team that there was last year or early on this season.
I think everything the Clippers have done was to get ready for the playoffs. I believe we are about to see a completely different team. I also think this is a really tough matchup for the Mavs. LA is every bit as good as Dallas offensively, but are by far the better defensive team. I think the Clippers' defense and the homecourt edge will propel them to a comfortable win. Give me the Clippers -5!
|05-22-21||Heat +5 v. Bucks||107-109||Win||100||16 h 44 m||Show|
40* (NBA) Heat/Bucks Early Bird STEAMROLLER (Heat +5)
I will roll the dice with the Heat as a 5-point road dog against the Bucks in Game 1 of their first round matchup. All the talk going into this series is about how Milwaukee is going to get their revenge on Miami after the Heat eliminated them from the postseason a year ago. I'm just not buying it.
I think people are sleeping on this Heat team going into the playoffs. No one is talking about the reigning Eastern Conference Champs. A lot of that has to do with how their regular-season went. They really struggled early. However, that was to be expected. What matters is they finished strong.
I also love the fact that Miami has a gameplan and the pieces to slow down Antetokounmpo. He's only averaging 18.6 ppg in his career against the Heat. I'll take the points for some insurance, but I like Miami to go up 1-0. Give me the Heat +5!
|05-20-21||Pacers v. Wizards -3.5||Top||115-142||Win||100||35 h 40 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Thursday NBA Play-In MAX UNIT Top Play (Wizards -3.5)
I will gladly take the Wizards -3.5 at home against the Pacers in Thursday's winner take all matchup in the Play-In Tournament. Washington watched a halftime lead evaporate in a 100-118 loss at Boston. Wizards couldn't buy a 3-pointer, as they shot just 3 for 21 and it didn't help that Jason Tatum went off for 50.
Pacers beat Charlotte 144-117 even after LeVert was a late scratch. I'm just not buying that performance from Indiana. They couldn't have shot it any better and the Hornets are awful defensively.
Washington's defense will put up a much bigger fight and the Wizards have the two best players on the floor in Westbrook and Beal. Give me Washington -3.5!
|05-19-21||Warriors v. Lakers -5||100-103||Loss||-110||13 h 33 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Lakers -5)
I just can't help myself here with the Lakers as a mere 5-point home favorite against the Warriors. No way anyone thought LA would be in the play-in game. They definitely wouldn't have been had injuries not derailed their season.
Good news is they got all their key guys back, including their two stars AD and LeBron. I know LeBron is going to be less than 100%, but this is LeBron James we are talking about. He will be fine. I just think it's a bigger mismatch than people realize. I know Steph Curry is playing out of his mind, but he's going to have to score 50 just for Golden State to keep it close. Give me the Lakers -5!
|05-18-21||Hornets +3.5 v. Pacers||Top||117-144||Loss||-114||20 h 47 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Play-In Tournament MAX UNIT Top Play (Hornets +3.5)
I really like Charlotte to win this game, making them a no-brainer at +3.5. The Hornets lost their last 5 games, but I liked what I seen out of this team in those losses. They really should have beat the Wizards in the regular-season finale to be the No. 8 seed. Charlotte has got a lot of key guys back in recent weeks.
I just feel the Hornets are the much better team. The Pacers are without a huge piece in Myles Turner, as he made a huge impact on both ends of the floor. They also got a lot of other guys banged up and really haven't been the same team since trading Oladipo. I just don't think playing at home will be enough to propel them in this spot. Give me the Hornets +3.5!
|05-16-21||Clippers -8 v. Thunder||112-117||Loss||-105||11 h 55 m||Show|
40* (NBA) Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Clippers -8)
I'll roll the dice here with the Clippers as a 8-point road favorite against OKC. I know LA just rested everyone and lost outright as a 7-point favorite at the Rockets on Friday, but I think that was just more of a planned off day for all the key guys in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. I don't think they sit everyone on Sunday, as they get the rest of the week off while the play-in tournament goes on.
The other big key here is that OKC does not want to win this game. Thunder need to lose to ensure they finish at least tied for the 3rd worst record. Tanking is clearly a priority for OKC. They are 1-23 in their last 24 games.
I know there's the narrative that LA should lose to avoid being the No. 3 seed and potentially having to face the Lakers in the first round, but it's unlikely the Lakers surpass the Blazers for that No. 6 spot. I also don't think they are scared of the Lakers and wouldn't you want to play them early compared to late when they have had a chance to regain their chemistry. Give me the Clippers -8!
|05-16-21||Hornets v. Wizards -6||110-115||Loss||-110||3 h 39 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Wizards -6)
I will gladly lay the 6-points with the Wizards at home in their big showdown with the Hornets. A lot at stake here, as the winner will likely by the No. 8 seed and get to go to Boston on Tuesday for a shot to be the No. 7 seed. The loser moves to the No. 10 seed (assuming Pacers beat the Raptors) and will have to travel to Indiana for a win or go home matchup on Wednesday. Keep in mind the winner can lose to the Celtics and still make it as the No. 8 by beating the winner or the No.9/No. 10 game.
With Bradley Beal being upgraded from out to questionable, I think there's a good chance he plays here with what's at stake. Even if he doesn't I still like Washington to win by 7 or more. I just think they are the much better team and in a much better spot. Hornets just played a OT game at New York on Saturday. A game that saw 6 different players log 30 or more minutes with Rozier logging a team high 46 (Graham and McDaniels also had at least 40 minutes). Keep in mind the Wizards were off yesterday. Give me Washington -6!
|05-15-21||Bulls v. Nets -10.5||91-105||Win||100||15 h 19 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Situational MONEY-MAKER (Nets -10.5)
With the Wizards 120-105 win over the Cavs on Friday, the Bulls are officially eliminated from playoff contention. That has me thinking blowout. I just don't think there will be much fight in Chicago. Hard to stay motivated after having your playoff hopes come to a crashing end this late in the season. Especially for a team like the Bulls who thought they would at least make the play-in tournament.
The Nets are expected to have their Big 3 of Durant, Irving and Harden for the first time in what seems like forever. Just being on the court together has to have these guys excited to play. There's also incentive here to win, as the Nets are just 1-game up on the Bucks for the No. 2 spot and Milwaukee owns the tie-breaker.
I got a feeling this line will only keep climbing, so get your bets in early! Give me the Nets -10.5!
|05-14-21||Cavs v. Wizards -8.5||105-120||Win||100||9 h 26 m||Show|
40* (NBA) Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Wizards -8.5)
I got no problem laying the 8.5 with the Wizards at home against the Cavs. Washington will be without Bradley Beal, but I don't think it matters. The Wizards are going to be extremely motivated to win this game, as they have not yet clinched a playoff spot. If they lose their last two and Chicago wins out, the Bulls would surpass them for the No. 10 spot.
As for Cleveland, I think we are actually getting a favorable number here because the Cavs just won outright 102-94 as a 6-point dog to the Celtics. Couple big things to note with that game. That was Cleveland's last home game and I think it meant something. Kevin Love was quoted saying, "I just wanted to win one at home before the season was over." It also helped the Celtics were down multiple starters and are just a team that has been on the decline.
I don't think there's a lot here for Cleveland to get excited about. They got two road games before going on vacation. Prior to that win over the Celtics the Cavs had lost 7 straight games by at least 9 points. Give me the Wizards -8.5!
|05-13-21||Kings v. Grizzlies -7.5||110-116||Loss||-110||10 h 13 m||Show|
40* (NBA) Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Grizzlies -7.5)
I can't help myself with Memphis as a mere 7.5-point home favorite against the Kings. Memphis sits in the No. 9 spot, but are just 0.5-game back of the Warriors for the No. 8 seed. Catching Golden State would be huge. You get two chances if you are the No. 8, where the No. 9 seed has to win two straight to make it.
Not only is their motivation for Memphis to play well, but the Kings are missing a ton of key players. They won't have De'Aaron Fox, Tyrese Haliburton, Harrison Barnes, Marvin Bagley or Robert Woodard. This has blowout written all over it. Give me the Grizzlies -7.5!
|05-13-21||76ers v. Heat -1||94-106||Win||100||10 h 46 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - 76ers/Heat TNT Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Heat -1)
I will take my chances here with the Heat as a slim 1-point home favorite against the 76ers in Thursday's first of two prime time games on TNT. I just don't trust Philly to show up in this spot. I know the 76ers still haven't officially clinched the No. 1 seed in the east, but it's all but a done deal. Even if they lose here, they need to just win their final two at home against the Magic.
Miami on the other hand has a ton to play for. Thanks to the Celtics loss to the Cavs last night, Heat don't have to worry about the play-in tournament. They do however, have plenty to play for with seeding. Hawks, HEat and Knicks are all fighting for the No. 4 to No. 6 seeds. The key here is the team that finishes No .6 will have to face the Bucks in the first round. Give me Miami -1!
|05-12-21||Pelicans +10 v. Mavs||107-125||Loss||-108||12 h 36 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Pelicans +10)
I just think the Mavericks are getting a little too much respect in this one. I know the Pelicans are without Ingram/Williamson and their playoff hopes are hanging on by a thread, but this team hasn't shown any quit. I don't think they will until they are officially out of it, so as slim as their shot is to make the playoffs, they are going to come into this one not just looking to keep it close against the Mavs, but to win outright.
Dallas just lost 104-133 at Memphis last night and I just wonder if this team isn't running out of gas. Mavs will be completing their 3rd back-to-back already this month. Pelicans have only had to play one back-to-back in May and were off yesterday. NO has covered 4 straight and 8 of 9 overall. Give me the Pelicans +10!
|05-11-21||76ers v. Pacers +6.5||94-103||Win||100||11 h 49 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Pacers +6.5)
I think we are getting a great price here with the Pacers as a 6.5-point home dog against the 76ers. Indiana not only still needs to win to ensure they make the playoffs, but there's incentive for them to try to catch the Hornets for the No. 8 spot.
As for the 76ers, there's just not a lot to play for down the stretch. Philly is the No. 1 seed in the East. They are a very comfortable 3-games up on Nets, which is more like 4 given they own the tiebreaker. The most important thing for Philly is just staying healthy. So I got a hard time seeing Embiid playing after showing up as questionable with an illness. There's just no incentive to play him. Give me the Pacers +6.5!
|05-10-21||Pacers -6.5 v. Cavs||Top||111-102||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER Top Play (Pacers -6.5)
No need to overthink this one. I just think the books really have a hard time setting this line high enough. You can't focus too much on how the Pacers have been playing down the stretch. This is more a play against an awful Cavs team against a team that still has something to play for.
Cleveland knew they weren't a playoff team before the season even started and they look like they have thrown in the towel down the stretch. Cavs have lost 10 in a row with each of the last 6 losses coming by at least 16 points.
Cleveland has allowed 9 straight opponents to shoot 48% or better from the field. Pacers have shot 48% or better from the field in 4 of their last 5, twice shooting better than 60%. Offense hasn't been their problem. Give me Indiana -6.5!
|05-09-21||Pelicans v. Hornets -3.5||Top||112-110||Loss||-110||10 h 1 m||Show|
50* (NBA) Sunday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Hornets -3.5)
I love the Hornets as a slim 3.5-point home favorite against the Pelicans. I think the fact that New Orleans is very much alive in the playoff race, just 2 games back of San Antonio for the 10th and final spot, and they come in having covered 6 of 7, has them getting too much respect here.
Charlotte is still down a couple key pieces, but they have recently got back star rookie LaMelo Ball and he's a difference maker. He does it all and more importantly makes the game easier on his teammates.
The Hornets injuries don't even begin to compare to that of the Pelicans who are down their two best players in Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. New Orleans may put up a fight early, but Charlotte should take control of this one in the 2nd half. Give me the Hornets -3.5!
|05-08-21||Spurs v. Blazers -6||102-124||Win||100||13 h 31 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Blazers -6)
A lot of people might see this as a letdown spot for Portland coming off that huge win last night against the Lakers, which moved them into the No. 6 seed and out of the play-in tournament. They also won the season series 2-1 with that victory, so while they are just 1-game up in the standings, it's more like 2.
With just 5 to play and how big it is to these teams to not have to play in the play-in tournament, I'm not concerned with the Blazers not showing up here on no rest. Let's also not ignore the fact that the Spurs are also on no rest. San Antonio is also playing their 4th straight on the road having to travel from Sacramento last night to Portland, while the Blazers got to go home to their own beds. Give me the Blazers -6!
|05-08-21||Grizzlies -5 v. Raptors||109-99||Win||100||10 h 13 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Grizzlies -5)
I will take my chances here with Memphis as a 5-point road favorite against the Raptors. While Toronto is not officially out of the playoff picture, their chances of making it after Thursday's home loss to the Wizards are slim to none.
Raptors are a full 4-games back of the Wizards for the 10th and final spot with just 5 games to play. The fact that Kyle Lowry is sitting out this game for rest really says it all. Not only will they be without Lowry, VanVleet and Anunoby are also both out.
Memphis on the other hand desperately needs a win here as they are just 0.5-game back of the Warriors and the 8th place spot. I don't see this one being close at all. Give me the Grizzlies -5!
|05-07-21||Knicks +7 v. Suns||105-128||Loss||-110||13 h 31 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Situational ATS DESTROYER (Knicks +7)
I really like the value here with New York as a 7-point road dog against the Suns. I think Knicks are getting a bit undervalued here for two big reasons. One they lost to Phoenix at home not that long ago by a final of 118-110. The other is the Knicks are going to be without Quickley.
I just think New York is playing with a chip on their shoulder and I'm confident they respond in a big way from that ugly 97-113 loss at Denver last time out. They couldn't have started any worse, scoring just 12 points in the 1st quarter.
I also think the Suns might be a little tired right now. They just lost 103-135 at Atlanta on Wednesday and are looking like at worst will be the No. 2 seed in the West. This feels like it could be a flat spot, especially with a game at Lakers on deck. Give me the Knicks +7!
|05-07-21||Lakers v. Blazers -8||101-106||Loss||-110||12 h 25 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Blazers -8)
I got no problem laying the big number with the Blazers at home against the Lakers on Friday. With LeBron James out and AD questionable with a back injury, hard to see LA keeping this competitive. Note they are also without one of their top guards in Dennis Schroder.
Portland doesn't care who suits up for the Lakers in this one. They are going to be 100% locked in as a win here could move them into the No. 6 seed and the Lakers down to the No. 7 seed and in that dreaded 4-team play-in tournament. Blazers are healthy and playing well, having gone 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games, scoring 128 or more in 5 of those games. Give me Portland -8!
|05-07-21||Cavs v. Mavs -9.5||Top||90-110||Win||100||11 h 50 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Mavs -9.5)
I got no problem laying the big number with the Mavs at home against the Cavaliers on Friday. I think some might hesitate to lay it with Dallas here given they are on the second leg of a back-to-back after a big game against Brooklyn last night and will be without Porzingis, but Cleveland has shown little to no interest in finishing the season strong. Cavs have lost 8 straight and 11 of 12 overall. Each of their last 4 losses coming by at least 16 points.
This is also a game the Mavs just can't afford to not show up and secure a win. With the Lakers and Blazers playing each other tonight, they got a chance here to move a full 2-games in front of one of those teams. Whoever that is will be in the dreaded No. 7 seed and have to play in the play-in tournament. There's a big urgency with a lot of teams to avoid that play-in tournament. Dallas is one of them. Give me the Mavs -9.5!
|05-06-21||Hawks -5 v. Pacers||Top||126-133||Loss||-115||10 h 18 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Thursday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Hawks -5)
We cashed in a huge GOM Top Play on the Hawks last night, as Atlanta cruised to a 135-103 win at home against the Suns as a 1-point dog. I will take that profit and fire right back with the Hawks on Thursday, as they are a mere 5-point favorite at Indiana.
The Pacers are somehow still in the playoff picture, sitting 9th in the east standings, but this team has looked nothing like a playoff team the last few weeks. Indiana is just 5-8 in their last 13 games and their 5 wins during this stretch have come against the Rockets, Pistons, Magic and Thunder (twice). They just lost at home last night to a Kings team that has nothing to play for 93-104. Give me Hawks -5!
|05-05-21||Knicks +3.5 v. Nuggets||97-113||Loss||-105||11 h 21 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Knicks +3.5)
I made the mistake of getting in front of this red-hot Knicks team in their last game at Memphis. I thought the Grizzlies were in prime position to get a win and cover as a small home favorite, but that was not the case. New York dominated that game from the get go and won 118-104. Knicks are now 15-1 ATS in their last 16 games.
I just don't see them taking their foot off the gas down the stretch. Nuggets have gone a respectable 9-4 in their last 13 games, but are just 5-8 ATS during this stretch. They just aren't the same team without Jamal Murray. They are also down three other key guards in Monte Morris, Will Barton and P.J. Dozier. Not to mention Jokic is playing at less than 100% with a toe injury. Give me the Knicks +3.5!
|05-05-21||Suns v. Hawks||Top||103-135||Win||100||11 h 57 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH (Hawks PK)
I absolutely love the Hawks here as a Pick'em at home against the Suns. If all things were equal (both teams on the same rest and no injuries), I would probably back Phoenix, but that's just not the case.
This is an awful spot for the Suns, who to their own fault let the Cavs hang around and ended up needing OT to get a win in Cleveland last night. Now they are no rest with tired legs playing an Atlanta team that has really turned a corner under interim head coach Nate McMillan. Hawks have also got a lot of their guys who were out with injuries back in the rotation. Only De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish are on the injury report. Reddish hasn't played since late Feb. and Hunter since late March. Give me the Hawks PK!
|05-05-21||Celtics v. Magic +11||132-96||Loss||-115||10 h 48 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Magic +11)
I will take my chances here with the Magic as a double-digit home dog against the Celtics on Wednesday. I just think people are sleeping on Orlando a little bit down the stretch. Yes the Magic are out of it, but unlike some other teams they aren't just mailing it in over the last month of the season.
In fact, Orlando has won 3 of their last 4 and covered 4 of their last 5. There's a lot of young talent on this team playing really hard. Boston just has never got it going like you would expect. They are just 2-4 over their last 6, which includes a 4-point home loss to OKC as a 11-point favorite and a 21-points loss at Charlotte as a 8-point favorite. Celtics just can't be trusted at this price, especially with Jaylen Brown ruled out and both Tatum and Walker playing at less than 100%. Give me the Magic +11!
|05-03-21||Nuggets v. Lakers +4||89-93||Win||100||13 h 31 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Lakers +4)
I just can't pass up a play here on the Lakers as a 4-point home dog against the Nuggets. I know LA is playing on the 2nd of a back-to-back and LeBron James is listed as questionable on the injury report. This just feels like the perfect get right spot for the Lakers.
Big thing to note with James is they are saying he left the Raptors game with ankle soreness. However, he left the game to take his usual rest early in the 4th with the Lakers down big. I just think they were being smart. No reason for him to play in a game they aren't going to win. I believe he plays tonight and when that's confirmed this line will drop. Either way I like the Lakers in this spot.
If he plays LA is the better team catching 4 at home, if he doesn't I think the Nuggets are primed to come out flat. Everyone wants to play LeBron. Your intensity isn't the same when he's not on the floor. Denver could also just come out flat in general having been in LA all weekend (played Clippers Saturday). Give me the Lakers +4!
|05-03-21||Knicks v. Grizzlies -2.5||Top||118-104||Loss||-110||11 h 29 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Knicks/Grizzlies *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Grizzlies -2.5)
I love the Grizzlies as a mere 2.5-point home favorite against the Knicks. This just feels like the perfect spot to fade New York. The Knicks have been on a ridiculous run, but so have the Grizzlies. Memphis has gone 18-8 (69%) ATS in their last 26 games. They are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 at home and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 as a home favorite.
Knicks are also not in a great spot. While they had an easy time beating the Rockets 122-97 on Sunday, they will be playing their second straight on the road on no rest.
The game also doesn't mean as much to New York, who comfortably sits 4th in the Eastern Conference, 1.5-games ahead of the Hawks and Heat who are T-5th. Memphis is also in if the playoffs started today, but they are 8th, just 0.5-games ahead of the Warriors and 3.5 ahead of NO, who is on the outside looking in. Give me the Grizzlies -2.5!
|05-02-21||76ers -5 v. Spurs||Top||113-111||Loss||-110||23 h 1 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Sunday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (76ers -5)
I will gladly lay just 5-points with Philly on the road against the Spurs. The 76ers come into this game having won and covered 3 straight. None of those 3 games were close. They routed OKC 121-90, before crushing the Hawks 127-83 and 126-104 in two straight against Atlanta. This little mini run has coincided with Philadelphia getting healthy.
I just think this team is locked in right now. For them to do what they did to the Hawks in the second meeting with Atlanta after beating by nearly 50 the game before, really says a lot about the mindset of this team right now. I think they really want that No. 1 seed and it's definitely within reach, as they are just 0.5-game back of the Nets.
Spurs have definitely overachieved, which is to be expected under Popovich, but they aren't anywhere close to as talented or as good as Philly. You are basically asking them (Spurs) to win outright for them to keep this within 4 or less. Give me the 76ers -5!
|05-01-21||Nuggets v. Clippers -4.5||110-104||Loss||-105||12 h 5 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Clippers -4.5)
I'm not passing up on the Clippers as a 4.5-point home favorite against the Nuggets on Saturday. LA is expected to get back Kawhi Leonard for this game, which is huge. Not only is he great, but it just adds to level of intensity that LA should bring to this game.
One they definitely use to lock in at least the No. 3 seed, as they sit 0.5-games up on Nuggets. With the Lakers sitting at No. 5 and not figuring to be able to finish any higher, no way the Clippers want to risk falling back to No. 4 and having to play them first round.
One thing to note about the Nuggets. While they are 16-3 in their last 19 games, 12 of those 16 wins came on their home floor, where they have one of the biggest home court edges with that thin air in Denver. Even more so this year with how tired teams are in a condensed schedule. I just think it has them a bit overvalued in this spot. Give me the Clippers -4.5!
|05-01-21||Bulls v. Hawks -4.5||97-108||Win||100||10 h 12 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS B-L-O-W-O-U-T (Hawks -4.5)
I will fire right back with the Hawks, this time as a 4.5-point home favorite against the Bulls. Atlanta didn't really sniff a cover last night as a 9.5-point dog in a 22-point loss to the 76ers. It was a rough two games in Philly for the Hawks, who lost the first matchup 83-127 on Wednesday.
I just think those two results really have Atlanta undervalued here at home against a struggling Bulls team. Chicago just doesn't have enough talent to consistently be competitive without a guy like Zach LaVine on the floor. They could also be without key reserve Lauri Markkanen in this one.
Hawks have been one of the best teams in the league since Nate McMillan took over. They still got a lot to play for sitting in 5th, but the Heat, who are in 7th, are just 0.5-game back. No team wants to be below the No. 6 seed and have to deal with the play-in tournament. Give me the Hawks -4.5!
|04-30-21||Hawks +9.5 v. 76ers||104-126||Loss||-107||9 h 0 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Situational MONEYMAKER (Hawks +9.5)
I'm going to take the 9.5 with the Hawks tonight. I know Atlanta just got absolutely annihilated when these two teams played in Philly on Wednesday, as the 76ers cruised to a 127-83 win over a depleted Hawks team. That result is a big reason why I like Atlanta.
It will be really hard for Philly to bring that same energy against a team they just beat by 44 points. On the flip side, we should get a really big effort here from the Hawks. Atlanta could also be getting back two guys that didn't play in the first game in Trae Young and Bogdan Bogdanovic. Either way I like Atlanta to keep it respectable. Give me the Hawks +9.5!
|04-29-21||Raptors +3 v. Nuggets||111-121||Loss||-110||12 h 38 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Raptors +3)
The books are begging you to take the Nuggets as basically a pick'em at home against the Raptors. No one is going to want to bet Toronto here, yet we have seen this line drop, as Denver opened at -4.5.
That tells me the books know of the Nuggets resting some guys here in the second of a back-to-back. It would make sense. Denver is safely sitting in 4th place in the west a full 5 games ahead of the Lakers. They would have to lose out to even flirt with not being a Top 4 seed.
Toronto doesn't have that luxury. It's do or die for the Raptors, as they are tied with the Bulls 2-games back of the 10th and final spot in the east. Toronto has been playing better of late as they have got healthy. Raptors are 5-2 in their last 7 with their only losses coming at New York and at home to the Nets. I'll side with the books in this one. Give me Toronto +3!
|04-28-21||Blazers v. Grizzlies -1.5||Top||130-109||Loss||-106||10 h 3 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Wednesday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Grizzlies -1.5)
I will gladly take my chances with the Grillies as a mere -1.5 home favorite against the Blazers. Portland was able to snap a 5-game losing streak with a 133-112 blowout win over the Pacers last night, but let's not forget Indiana is extremely short-handed right now.
I also think it's important to note that Lillard wasn't spectacular. He had 23 points, but was just 6 of 14 shooting. It was reserve Anfernee Simons that won them the game. Simmons scored 27 in 24 mins, going a ridiculous 9 of 10 from behind the 3-point line.
I just don't think the Grizzlies are getting near enough respect at home in this game. Memphis has been one of the hottest teams in the league for over a month now. Give me the Grizzlies -1.5!
|04-27-21||Wolves v. Rockets +2||114-107||Loss||-110||12 h 38 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Rockets +2)
I think we are getting some great value here with the Rockets as a home dog against the Timberwolves tonight. I know betting on Houston can be a tough ask, but the Rockets have covered their last 2 games and couldn't be catching Minnesota at a better time.
The Timberwolves just won back-to-back games as a double-digit dog against the Jazz. First one was in Utah on Saturday and then last night at home. Really easy for them to suffer a letdown here off those two games, especially playing a team like the Rockets. Not to mention they are on no rest and have a big game on deck against Steph Curry and the Warriors on Thursday. Give me the Rockets +2!
|04-26-21||Mavs -5.5 v. Kings||Top||106-113||Loss||-110||13 h 36 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Monday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Mavs -5.5)
I will gladly lay the 5.5 points on the road with the Mavs against the Kings. I just think this is a great spot to fade Sacramento. The Kings are without their best player in De'Aaron Fox and while they covered and nearly won outright at Golden State without him last night, that was clearly a game the Kings wanted to show well in. Some of that is probably how good Curry is playing, you also got former Warriors players and coaches on Sacramento (Barnes/Walton).
That game also felt like it was the Kings last shot at getting back in the playoff picture, as the Warriors are the team they needed to catch for that 10th and final spot. Sacramento is now 6.5-games back with only 12 to play and have to also jump the Pelicans in the process. I just think we are going to see a really flat Kings team here on no rest. Give me the Mavs -5.5!
|04-24-21||Pistons +4.5 v. Pacers||109-115||Loss||-105||10 h 30 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Pistons +4.5)
I will take my chances here with the Pistons as a 4.5-point road dog against the Pacers. I'm not so sure Indiana should even be favored. The Pacers will be without their top two big men, as both Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner are ruled out. Jeremy Lamb and Doug McDermott are also questionable to play.
Detroit may be out of the playoff picture, but this is a young team that is playing extremely hard down the stretch. Pistons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7. They did fail to cover in their last game at San Antonio, but that was in the second leg of a back-to-back. Detroit hasn't failed to cover two games in a row since not covering in home games against the Kings and Knicks back on Feb. 26th and 28. Give me the Pistons +4.5!
|04-24-21||76ers +7.5 v. Bucks||Top||94-132||Loss||-105||6 h 2 m||Show|
50* (NBA) Saturday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (76ers +7.5)
I love the 76ers as a 7.5-point dog in Saturday's rematch with the Bucks. Milwaukee won the first matchup 124-117 on Thursday. One thing to note about that game, is the Bucks had a huge rest advantage. Milwaukee was on two days of rest, while Philly was playing in the 2nd of a back-to-back after a hard fought 3-point loss the night before to the Suns.
I know Embiid is questionable to play, but I'm okay either way. I just feel that if Embiid sits, it will make it hard for Milwaukee to show up with the right mindset. I don't think the effort will be lacking from the 76ers side. There's a lot more to this team than Embiid and let's not forget we don't need them to win, just keep it respectable. I believe they do that. Give me the 76ers +7.5!
|04-23-21||Grizzlies v. Blazers -3.5||130-128||Loss||-105||13 h 46 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Late Night VEGAS INSIDER (Blazers -3.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Blazers as a slim 3.5-point home favorite against the Grizzlies. Memphis is not a team I want to be betting against a lot right now, as they have been playing really good basketball and been extremely undervalued for a while now.
However, I don't think they being undervalued here. In fact, I think it's Portland that is getting disrespected. The Blazers have lost 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall, but keep in mind that 3 of those losses have come by a mere 1-point. Not to mention the last two were 1-point losses to two of the best teams in the west in the Clippers and Nuggets.
With a healthy Portland team playing at home in what feels like a must-win, I think they get the job done. Also, Memphis could be in some trouble as long as Jonas Valanciunas is sidelined (ruled out for this game). Give me the Blazers -3.5!
|04-23-21||Heat -5 v. Hawks||Top||103-118||Loss||-115||11 h 30 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Friday Night *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Heat -5)
I love the Heat as a mere 5-point road favorite against a Hawks team that will be without All-Star point guard Trae Young. Not only will Young be sidelined, but Clint Capela is questionable, while Tony Snell, Cam Reddish, De'Andre Hunter and Kris Dunn are all out.
Key here is I don't see Miami letting Young's absence change how they approach this game. This is huge for playoffs. It's really important this year to be a Top 6 seed, as you avoid the play-in tournament. Right now the Heat are 7th in the east, but just 1-game back both the Hawks and Celtics. Not only can they make ground on Atlanta with a win, but with Boston playing at Brooklyn tonight they got a good chance here to make ground up on both teams. I just don't see the Hawks being able to compete without Young in this spot. Give me the Heat -5!
|04-22-21||76ers v. Bucks -5.5||117-124||Win||100||11 h 31 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Bucks -5.5)
I will take my chances here with Milwaukee covering the 5.5 at home against the 76ers. I just feel like this is going to be a really tough spot here for Philadelphia after last nights grueling 113-116 loss at home to the Suns. A game that played without both Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris. Not only are those two listed as questionable, but Joel Embiid and Seth Curry are showing up on the injury report tonight.
With the postseason looming, it would makes sense for the 76ers to rest Embiid in this game. As for the Bucks, they should be ready to roll here after losing their last 2 games at home. It's also worth noting that Milwaukee has won the last two at home against Philly by double-digits. Give me the Bucks -5.5!
|04-21-21||Hawks v. Knicks +1.5||127-137||Win||100||11 h 40 m||Show|
40* (NBA) Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Knicks +1.5)
I wish I would have took notice earlier and been backing this Knicks team more, as they have just been an absolute covering machine. New York has covered 10 straight games. Normally I would be cautious backing a team that has covered this many games in a row, but Atlanta is 9-2 ATS in their last 11, so there's not the inflation with the number that you might normally see with a team like the Knicks.
The Hawks big turnaround is being credited to the change in head coach. It definitely helped light a fire under this team, but I think more than anything the schedule just got a lot easier for Atlanta. Their 9 wins during this 9-2 run are against the Magic, Pacers, Raptors, Hornets, Bulls, Pelicans (2x), Warriors and Spurs. Every one of those teams has a worse record than the Knicks. Give me New York +1.5!
|04-21-21||Warriors -2 v. Wizards||Top||114-118||Loss||-104||10 h 37 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Wednesday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Warriors -2)
I will gladly take my chances here with the Warriors as a slim 2-point road favorite against the Wizards. There's a couple of reasons I like Golden State here. The most obvious is the play of Steph Curry. It's pretty clear to me that Curry took all that hate and criticism he was getting early in the year to heart. He's been the best player in the league for weeks now. I don't know how you don't bet on the Warriors at this price when he's playing like this.
The other thing here is I don't see Golden State suffering any kind of letdown against the Wizards after their big win at Philadelphia. That's because Washington recently won at Golden State. A game the Warriors played very poorly in the 1st half and let slip away in the final seconds. I just think this team is locked in right now and while I think the Wizards are playing well, they have beat up on a lot of bad teams during their 7-1 run here. Give me the Warriors -2!
|04-19-21||Spurs -1 v. Pacers||Top||109-94||Win||100||12 h 31 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Monday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Spurs -1)
I really like the Spurs as a 1-point road favorite against the Pacers. This line opened at Indiana -2.5 and completely flipped to San Antonio. No way the public is rushing to back the Spurs as a small road dog. That tells me there's either a lot of sharp money on the Spurs.
There's definitely reason to like San Antonio here, as they will have a big advantage in terms of rest with the Pacers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after playing 3 straight on the road. Spurs are also coming in off a 111-85 win at Phoenix as a 12-point dog. Pacers are also lost defensively right now, as they are allowing 124.6 ppg over their last 5. Give me the Spurs -1!
|04-18-21||Wolves +10.5 v. Clippers||105-124||Loss||-110||12 h 22 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT (Wolves +10.5)
I think we are getting some big time value here with the Timberwolves as a massive 10.5-point road dog against the Clippers. Minnesota has been playing much better of late, especially when they have had the trio of Karl Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and De'Angelo Russell on the floor. They just won 119-111 at home over the Heat as a 7-point dog.
As for the Clippers, they are just overvalued right now. Even though LA loss their last game, it was by just 3-points on the road to the 76ers, so that's not going to move the needle. It's just not a good spot for LA, who had to play 3 games in 4 nights on the road before a day off Saturday and they got to go right back on the road after this game for a showdown with the Blazers in Portland. Give me the Timberwolves +10.5!
|04-18-21||Pelicans +1 v. Knicks||112-122||Loss||-102||3 h 20 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Pelicans +1)
I'll take my chances here with the Pelicans putting an end to the Knicks 5-game winning streak and ridiculous run of 8 straight covers. New Orleans will be out for revenge in this one, as they just lost at home to the Knicks 106-116 last week.
Since that game the Pelicans have got back a big piece to their rotation in Lonzo Ball, while the Knicks will at least for this game be without Alec Burks. Burks played a big role in the Knicks win over NO last week, as he scored 21 points.
Knicks are just 1-10 ATS last 11 when they come in having covered 7 or more games in a row. Give me the Pelicans +1!
|04-17-21||Cavs +2 v. Bulls||96-106||Loss||-112||11 h 56 m||Show|
40* (NBA) Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Cavs +2)
I'll take my chances here with Cleveland as a small road dog against the Bulls on Saturday. I'm not so sure Chicago should even be favored in this game. The Bulls are not playing well at all right now. They have lost outright and failed to cover 4 straight games. On top of that they are down their best player in Zach LaVine and potentially starting SG Tomas Satoransky. Those two are tied for the team lead in assists at 5.1 per game.
While both teams are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, Chicago is at a bigger disadvantage in terms of rest here, as they were in action last night against the Grizzlies. Another thing to note is that the Bulls are just 9-24 ATS in their last 33 home games with a line of +3 to -3. Cavs have won 3 straight games on the road. Cleveland is also 7-3 ATS last 10 off a loss and 6-1 ATS last 7 vs a team with a losing record. Give me the Cavs +2!
|04-16-21||Heat v. Wolves +7.5||111-119||Win||100||11 h 53 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Wolves +7.5)
I like the value here with the Timberwolves as a 7.5-point home dog against the Heat. While Minnesota has lost their last 2 games in blowout fashion, falling 97-127 to the Nets and 105-130 to the Bucks, they didn't have Karl Anthony-Towns for either of those games.
He's going to be back in the lineup tonight and with him the Timberwolves have a formidable 3 guys who can score with rookie Anthony Edwards and D'Angelo Russell. This is also not a great spot for Miami, who will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 nights and 4th straight away from home overall. Give me the Timberwolves +7.5!
|04-16-21||Pelicans -2 v. Wizards||Top||115-117||Loss||-105||10 h 43 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Friday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Pelicans -2)
I will gladly take my chances here with the Pelicans as a slim 2-point road favorite against the Wizards. New Orleans is coming off an ugly 106-116 loss at home to the Knicks, which I feel is playing into the favorable number. As is the fact that the Wizards have won 4 of 5 and covered 5 of 6.
Key here is the Pelicans are simply the better team and will be getting back a big piece to their rotation with Lonzo Ball upgraded to probable. Ball just helps the offense flow better when he's on the floor. Another key here is this is not a good spot for Washington, who just finished up a 6-game road trip that started with two games in Florida an ended out on the west coast. Give me the Pelicans -2!
|04-14-21||Heat v. Nuggets -4||106-123||Win||100||13 h 52 m||Show|
40* (NBA) Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Nuggets -4)
I will gladly take my chances with the Nuggets -4 at home against the Celtics. Denver is going to be extremely motivated here after losing their last two and let's not forget this team was playing as well as any team prior to their last two losses, as they had won 8 in a row and 12 of 14 overall.
Miami is 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in their last 8 games, which I believe is playing into the value here with Denver. Key here is the Heat have lost 3 of 4. This is also not a good spot for the Heat, who are playing on no rest and their 3rd game in 4 nights. Denver is one of the most difficult places to play well on no rest. Give me the Nuggets -4!
|04-14-21||Clippers v. Pistons +9||Top||100-98||Win||100||11 h 8 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Wednesday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Pistons +9)
I love the value here with Detroit as a near double-digit home dog against the Clippers. This just feels like the perfect spot to fade LA, as they are way overvalued right now due to winning 6 straight and 12 of 14 overall.
The key here is the Clippers just played a nationally televised game last night against the Clippers. Will be really easy for them to not give their best effort here in the second of a back-to-back. It's also their 3rd game in 4 nights and 5th in the last 7 days. Detroit on the other hand is going to be fresh having been off the last two days. Give me the Pistons +9!
|04-14-21||Magic v. Bulls -9.5||115-106||Loss||-110||11 h 58 m||Show|
40* (NBA) No Doubt ATS B-L-O-W-O-U-T (Bulls -9.5)
I got no problem laying the big number here with Chicago at home against the Magic, as I got the Bulls winning this one by double-digits easy. While Chicago comes in having lost 3 straight and failed to cover all 3, those 3 games all came on the road. Now they are back home and facing one of the worst teams in the league in the Magic. Orlando is in full on tank mode.
The Magic showed some fight early on after trading away all their top players, but it's been all downhill since. They come in having lost 6 straight with 5 of the 6 defeats coming by double-digits.
Key here is the Bulls are fighting for that 10th and final playoff spot, making this a game they simply can't afford to lose. Give me the Bulls -9.5!