Warriors/Celtics MAX UNIT Top Play (Warriors +4) 

I'll take my chances with the Warriors as a 4-point dog in Game 6 of the NBA Finals. I know it's Boston that is facing elimination at home, but my money is on Golden State to finish off this thing tonight and not let it go to a Game 7. 

I thought it was really impressive how the Warriors were able to win Game 5 without a great offensive night from Steph Curry, who scored just 16 points on 7 of 22 shooting (0 for 9 on 3-pointers). It speaks volumes to just how good this Golden State defense has been. Boston is struggling to get anything out of their role players and continue to make it tough for both Tatum and Brown to get going. 

I look for Curry to bounce back in a big way tonight and more of the same from the Warriors defense. Give me Golden State +4! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Celtics/Warriors Game 5 VEGAS INSIDER (Warriors -3.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Warriors as a 3.5-point home favorite in Game 5 at home. Golden State evened up the series at 2-2 behind an epic performance from Steph Curry in Friday's 107-97 win at Boston in Game 4. 

Warriors did lose Game 1 at home after being up 12 going into the 4th quarter, but they came back and dominated Game 2 at home 107-88. I just have a lot more trust in Golden State. Curry is without question the best player on the floor and we can expect a lot more out of the other guys at home. Give me the Warriors -3.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Warriors/Celtics MAX UNIT Top Play (Warriors +4) 

I'll take my chances with Golden State at +4 in Game 4 of the NBA Finals. This feels like a must-win for the Warriors with Boston up 2-1 after Tuesday's 116-100 win in Game 3. The Celtics came out on fire in Game 3 and it really felt like they should be up 20+ in the 1st Half. Even then Golden State was able to rally back in the 3rd quarter. They just didn't have enough gas in the tank to finish it off. 

Celtics got 27 from Brown, 26 from Tatum and 24 from Smart. I don't see them getting that kind of all-around production from those 3 again in Game 4. On the flip side, we know Curry is going to be great. All we need is for the bench to give them more than the 18 points they scored in Game 3. Mainly we need more out of Poole and I think he delivers. I'll take the points for insurance, but I like the Warriors to win this game outright. Give me Golden State +4! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Warriors/Celtics Game 3 MAX UNIT Top Play (Warriors +3.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Warriors as a 3.5-point road dog in Game 3 of the NBA Finals. If not for that unbelievable shot making in Game 1 by Boston, this series would be 2-0 in favor of Golden State. Keep in mind the Warriors were up double-digits going into that 4th quarter of Game 1. They won Game 2 by by 19. 

Golden State to me has looked like the better team for 7 of the 8 quarters and that's with them getting almost nothing out of Klay Thompson. I just feel as long as Steph Curry continues to play at the level he's played in the first two games, it's going to be a tall task for Boston to win this series. 

The other big thing that doesn't get quite the attention that it deserves is the Warriors defense. After hitting 21 3-pointers (9 in the 4th quarter) of Game 1, Boston still managed to make 15 in Game 2, yet were only able to score 88 points. Give me the Warriors +3.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10(Scale of 1-10)

Celtics/Warriors MAX Unit Top Play (Warriors -4) 

I backed Golden State in Game 1 and took it on the chin. Warriors were up by as many 15 in the 3rd quarter and led by 12 going into the 4th quarter. The Celtics then played what has to be one of the greatest 4th quarters by a single team in NBA Finals history. 

Boston simply couldn't miss. They started the quarter making 7 straight 3's and ended up 9 for 11 when it was all said and done. For the game the Celtics shot 21-41 (51.2%) from behind the 3-pt line. I don't see them putting up anything close to those kind of numbers in Game 2. 

I get they won that game without Tatum putting up huge offensive numbers, but he still had a big impact with 13 assists. He had a hand in close to 40 points. He might score a few more in Game 2, but his assists will likely go way down. 

Warriors got a great game from Curry and Wiggins, but no one else really did much. Draymond didn't have his normal impact, Thompson could never get it going and Jordan Poole was basically a  no show. 

This is also a do or die moment for Golden State. They lose this game and go down 0-2 with 3 of the next 4 in Boston, it's all but over. My money is on the Warriors not letting that happen. Give me Golden State -4! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Celtics/Warriors Game 1 MAX UNIT Top Play (Warriors -3.5)

Give me Golden State -3.5 at home in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Sure, Boston had the tougher road to the Finals, but that doesn't mean that makes them more ready for this series. If anything, I think it's an advantage for Golden State. Boston has just played two grueling 7-game series against the Bucks and Heat. 

I also think the Warriors are an entire different beast than what the Celtics have seen so far in these playoffs. Brooklyn was not a good defensive team. Milwaukee and Miami were both really good defensively, but were so reliant on one guy to carry them offensively. Golden State is a very good defensive team and in my opinion are the hardest team in the NBA to defend. I think this line should be closer to 5. Give me the Warriors -3.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Celtics/Heat Game 7 MAX UNIT Top Play (Heat +2.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Heat at +2.5 at home in Game 7. The entire outlook of this series shifted in Game 6 when Jimmy Butler returned to form. After knee inflammation really limited him in Game 3 and Game 4, Butler put on a show in Game 6 with a 47-point performance on the road facing elimination. Butler also had 9 rebounds and 8 assists. He looked like a different guy and with him playing at that level, I like the Heat to win this game and return to the NBA Finals. Give me the Heat +2.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Western Conf Finals (Game 5) MAX UNIT Top Play (Mavs +7) 

I'll take my chances with the Mavs as a 7-pt dog at Golden State in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. I think the assumption is that the Warriors didn't have the right mindset up 3-0 in Game 4. Everyone just says that was Dallas' game to get. 

I get it, but you also got to look at the whole picture. Mavs got blown out in Game 1, which was to be expected coming off a Game 7 win over the Suns after trailing in that series 2-3. They had a HUGE lead and blew it in Game 2 and in Game 3 half their team couldn't buy a shot and they still only lost by 9. 

Coming back from a 3-0 deficit has never been done. I don't think it happens here, but I do think Dallas at the very least is going to make a game of it. Doncic, not Curry, is the best player on the floor. If his teammates can knock down a few 3's, they could definitely win this game. Give me the Mavs +7! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Western Conf Finals (Game 4) MAX UNIT Top Play (Mavs PK) 

I'll take my chances with the Mavs at a pick'em at home in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals. This series might be over with Golden State up 3-0, but that doesn't mean Dallas isn't going to go down without a fight. 

Mavs really should have won Game 2 at Golden State, as they were up big before a 2nd half collapse. They also have to feel like they beat themselves in Game 3 with the inability of their role players like Finney-Smith, Bullock and Kleber to hit shots. Those 3 were a combined 2 for 17 from behind the 3-point line. Look for those guys to shoot a lot better and for the Mavs to find a way to win this game and at the least extend this thing to a Game 5 on Thursday. Give me the Mavs PK! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Eastern Conf Finals (Game 4) MAX UNIT Top Play (Celtics -6.5)

I'll gladly take my chances with the Celtics as a 6.5-point home favorite in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals. This series has seen the Heat win Game 1 by 9, Boston win Game 2 by 25 and Miami take Game 3 by 6. 

Celtics couldn't have played much worse in Game 3 and still almost pulled it off. Boston got outscored 18-31 in the 1st period and fell behind by as many as 26 in the 1st half. Celtics were able to make a game of it, despite getting next to nothing out of Tatum and them having an uncharacteristic 23 turnovers. 

The other big thing is the health of Miami. Jimmy Butler left in the 1st half and did not return with a knee injury. Tyler Herro also played 20 mins battling a groin injury. Heat's offense scored just 23, 25 and 21 over the final 3 quarters. Give me the Celtics -6.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Western Conf Finals (Game 3) MAX UNIT Top Play (Mavs -2.5)

I'll take my chances with the Mavs -2.5 in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals. It's do or die for Dallas after losing the first 2 games in Golden State. While they weren't all that competitive in Game 1, that was to be expected coming off that Game 7 against the Suns.

They really should have won Game 2, as they jumped out to a huge lead before falling apart in the 2nd Half. As tough as that loss was to swallow, I think it did give this Mavs team some confidence that they can hang with this Warriors team. 

Golden State has had a problem of just going thru the motions in these playoffs and I think they struggle to match the intensity of the Mavs in Game 3 on the road. Give me the Mavs -2.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Western Conf Finals (Game 2) MAX UNIT Top Play (Warriors -6) 

We cashed on the Warriors in Game 1 and will fire right back with Golden State at -6 in Game 2. I'm a huge Doncic fan and I expect him to play better than he did in Game 1. I just don't think he's going to get enough help from his role players on the road to keep this close. Doncic could score 40+ and the Mavs could still lose by double-digits. Golden State has been the best team in the West when healthy and I really don't see this series going all that long. Give me the Warriors -6! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Western Conference Finals MAX UNIT Top Play (Warriors -4.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the Warriors as a 4.5-point home favorite in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. Golden State should be a bigger favorite here. Not only are the Warriors the better team, but this is a really tough spot for the Mavs, who are coming off back-to-back wins in elimination games against the Suns.

Very similar scenario to what we saw last night in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Celtics just ran out of gas and just didn't have that killer instinct on the defensive side as they did avoiding elimination in Games 6 and 7 vs the Bucks. Warriors haven't played in 4 days and are a perfect 6-0 at home in the playoffs so far. Give me Golden State -4.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Eastern Conference Finals MAX UNIT Top Play (Heat -1.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Heat as a slim -1.5 home favorite against the Celtics in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. I think Miami continues to get disrespected. Most are picking the Celtics in this series, despite the fact that the Heat, the No. 1 seed in the East, has done exactly what they are suppose to do so far in the playoffs. Miami beat the Hawks in 5 in the 1st round and just disposed of the 76ers in 6 to get here. 

All 3 of their playoffs losses have come on the road. They are 6-0 at home and just one of those wins at home came by fewer than 9 points. The other big thing besides homecourt is the Celtics figure to have a bit of a letdown here. Boston just won back-to-back elimination games, with the Game 7 clincher against the Bucks coming just 2 days ago. Give me the Heat -1.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Mavericks/Suns Game 7 Vegas Insider (Mavs +6.5)

I'll gladly take my chances with the Mavs as a 6.5-point dog in Game 7 against the Suns. I love Dallas to at the very least make a game of this and give them close to 50/50 shot at winning the game outright. Suns are the better team, but the Mavs have the best player in Doncic. Phoenix has had no answer for him and I think they may have made a big mistake talking trash to Doncic earlier in this series. The other big story in this series is the Mavs defense on Chris Paul. After averaging 22 and 11 in their 1st round series with the Pelicans, he's averaging a mere 14 and 6. He's scored just 25 points combined in the last 3 games of this series. Give me the Mavs +6.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

Bucks/Celtics Game 7 ATS No-Brainer (Bucks +5.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Bucks getting 5.5 in Game 7 on the road against the Celtics. While Boston avoided elimination with a 108-95 win at Milwaukee in Game 6, no team has been able to win back-to-back games in this series. The underdog has covered 5 of the 6 games to this point. Boston might have the better team, but Milwaukee has the best player in Antetokounmpo. Boston has no answer for him. He's averaging 40 ppg over the last 4 games of the series. I also like Milwaukee as a team in this spot, as they aren't going to be overcome by the moment. Give me the Bucks +5.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Bucks -1.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Bucks as a slim 1.5-point home favorite. Milwaukee 100% stole Game 5. This is a championship team that knows how to close out a series. They also understand how big this game is for them. Last thing they want is to have to go back to Boston for Game 7. With that said, the pressure is really on the Celtics to avoid elimination. Not only that, but you have to wonder how this team is dealing with their collapse in Game 5. Give me the Bucks -1.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs MAX UNIT Top Play (76ers -2) 

I will gladly take my chances with the 76ers as a slim 2-point home favorite in Game 6 against the Heat. This series has been dominated by the home team. The home team has won and covered each of the 5 games up to this point and most of them have been blowouts. The smallest margin of victory so far is 8-points. 

It's just like the role players and even the stars are just playing at a different level at home compared to on the road. I see no reason to think that trend won't continue in Game 6. No question the 76ers will be the more motivated team facing elimination. Miami could struggle to find that killer instinct coming off a 35-point win and knowing they got Game 7 at home. Give me the 76ers -2! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10

NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Heat -3) 

I will gladly take my chances with Miami as a mere 3-point home favorite in Game 5. Philly got Embiid back in Game 3 at home and were able to feed off his energy in a 99-79 win. In Game 4, the Heat just couldn't buy an outside shot (7 of 35, 20%), while James Harden caught fire. Maybe that was a turning point for Harden. I don't think it was. I have zero faith in him being anything close to that same guy in Game 5. 

I see a much more focused and energized Miami team on their home floor and you have to wonder if there won't be a little bit of letdown for the 76ers. Philly's backs were firmly against the wall. They lose either of those games at home and this series was all but over. Either way, I just feel the Heat are the better team and this is just too good a price to pass up. Give me Miami -3! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Heat +2) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the Heat as a 2-point road dog in Game 3 of their Eastern Conference Semifinal matchup with the 76ers. Miami really made easy work of Philly in the first two games, winning Game 1 by a score of 106-92 and then Game 2 by a score of 119-103. 

It felt like this series was all but over with Embiid sidelined, but then he made a surprising return for Game 3. I don't think there's any question it gave Philly a lift, but that was also a do or die situation, as they had to avoid going down 0-3. 

Having Embiid back is big, but he's far from the MVP candidate we saw dominate the regular season. I still have a lot of the same concerns with the 76ers. Can they get another 21 points from Danny Green? Can Green and Maxey replicate their crazy shooting from outside (combined 12 of 15 from 3-point)? I don't think so. My money is on the Heat to retake their claim on this series and go up 3-1. Give me Miami +2! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -1.5)

I will gladly take my chances with the Suns as a slim -1.5 road favorite in Game 4 of their Western Conference Semifinal matchup with the Mavs. After dominating the first two games at home to take a 2-0 lead, Dallas responded with a 103-94 win in Game 3. Not a big surprise (I was on the Mavs) given the situation. 

Suns got a little complacent after those first two games and the Mavs put everything on the line with their backs against the wall. I still think Phoenix is hands down the better team. In Game 3, Chris Paul and Devin Booker only combined for 30 points and had a combined 12 turnovers. Yet the Suns only lost by 9. My money is on the Sun to bounce back with a much better showing this afternoon. Give me Phoenix -1.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Mavs PK) 

I'll take my chances with the Mavs at a pick'em at home in Game 3 against the Suns. Most will just assume Phoenix will keep rolling after watching them win and cover both games on their home floor to start the series. 

I don't think that will be the case. Dallas has shown they can hang around with this team for a good portion of the game. They just haven't got any help from their role players. It's been all Doncic. I don't think the Suns are going to have an answer for Doncic and with the Mavs being at home for Game 3, I think the role players finally show up and carry this team to a win. Give m Dallas PK! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Celtics -4.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with Boston laying the 4.5 in Game 2. The Celtics got a big wake-up call in Game 1. I know they aren't taking games off in the playoffs, but you have to wonder if they were as locked in as they should have been after sweeping the Nets in the 1st Round and Milwaukee being without one of their better players in Middleton. 

It just wasn't a good offensive game-plan for Boston, who jacked up 50+ 3-pointers. Look for them to attack more. I also though the defense played pretty well in the loss and should be even more locked in with this essentially being a must win down 0-1 at home. Give me the Celtics -4.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Raptors +1.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with the Raptors as a home dog in Game 6. Everyone thought this series was over after Philly went up 3-0, but Toronto has won the last two, including a 103-88 win on the road in Game 5. 

All the talk right now is about how 76ers head coach Doc Rivers can't close out series. I think that's putting added pressure on Philly, but the even bigger issue here is Embiid is not playing at an MVP level with that injured thumb and Harden just is not the same guy he was just a couple years ago. Raptors have all the momentum and I fully expect this thing to go back to Philly for a Game 7. Give me Toronto +1.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Warriors -8.5)

I'll take my chances with the Warriors as a 8.5-point home favorite in Game 5 against the Nuggets. Not a big shocker that Denver was able to avoid getting swept with a 126-121 win at home in Game 4, but that took a near perfect night from them. Nuggets shot 56.2% from the field, made a series-high from them with 15 3's and also had a series-high 29 made free throws. And yet they still only won the Game by 5. 

Warriors won by 16 at home in Game 1 and by 20 at home in Game 2. It's just not asking much for Golden State to win here by double-digits. Give me the Warriors -8.5! 

Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Pelicans +6.5) 

I got no problem taking the Pelicans as a 6.5-point dog in Game 5 on the road against the Suns. I think we have seen enough now that it's safe to say this is a pretty evenly matched series with Phoenix missing Booker. One I wouldn't be surprised at all if New Orleans won. 

Suns have shot better than 50% in each of the first 4 games, yet are -12 in total points scored in the series. Can they really bank on shooting 50% every game. Either way, the combo of Ingram and McCollum has proven to be deadly and simply put the Suns aren't getting enough out of the other guys. I give New Orleans a real shot here of winning this game outright. Give me the Pelicans +6.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Wolves +6) 

I will take my chances with Minnesota as a 6-point road dog in Game 5. Memphis is really lucky the Timberwolves aren't up 3-1 in this series, as they blew that huge lead in Game 3 at home. I just think the Grizzlies were way overvalued coming into the playoffs.

Minnesota is every bit as talented as they are and have already proven they can win on the road, taking Game 1 130-117. I not only think the Timberwolves can keep it close enough to cover, I like them to win Game 5 outright. Give me Minnesota +6! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Raptors +8)

I'll take my chances with the Raptors as a 8-point dog against the 76ers in Game 5. I'm actually shocked the line is this high. Toronto may have to go without Fred VanVleet, but they won Game 4 with him playing just 15 minutes and scoring 5 points. 

With rookie Scottie Barnes back from injury and Gary Trent Jr. back to playing at a high level, Raptors got more than enough fire-power here to not just cover, but win the game outright. Especially with Embiid clearly playing at less than 100%. Give me the Raptors +8

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER (Nets -1)

I'll take my chances with Brooklyn at basically a pick'em at home in Game 4 against the Celtics. This is it for the Nets, who have shockingly fell behind 3-0 in this series. If there's one team that can be the first two overcome a 3-0 deficit, it's a team that's got a duo the likes of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. 

It's not like Boston has been hands down the better team in this series. Brooklyn could have very easily won al 3 of the games so far in the series. That's with Durant scoring a very mediocre 22.0 ppg on just 38.5% shooting and Irving scoring just 21.7 ppg on 42% shooting. I'm expecting the best game of the series for these two with the season on the line. Give me the Nets -1! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Late Night CASH COW (Pelicans +2.5) 

I really like the Pelicans as a home dog in Game 4 against the Suns on Sunday Night. I just don't think Phoenix is anything close to the juggernaut we expected coming into the playoffs without Devin Booker. New Orleans could have very easily won Game 3 at home and taken a 2-1 series lead. It took a really good game from Chris Paul and near perfect game of execution (only 5 TOs and shot 50.6% from the field) for Phoenix to win Game 3 by a mere 3-points. 

I just think the value is 100% with the Pelicans as a home dog in Game 4. Not only have they shown this is an even matchup without Booker, but they will be the more desperate team in this one. Give me the Pelicans +2.5! 

Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Hawks +2) 

I'm going to take my chances with the Hawks as a slim home dog in Game 4 of their 1st Round series with Miami. It looked like Miami was well on their way to winning Game 3 and taking a commanding 3-0 series lead. They had a 84-68 lead in the 3rd quarter, but would lose Kyle Lowry to a hamstring injury and go on to lose the game 110-111. 

Lowry is listed as questionable, but he didn't practice yesterday and was seen walking gingerly. Hamstrings aren't exactly an injury you can play thru without reaggravating it. Without Lowry at full strength, it really opens up the door offensively for Trae Young. I just think that injury is a lot bigger deal than it's being made and yet we are seeing the exact same line we saw for Game 3. Give me he the Hawks +2.5! 

Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Nets -2.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with Brooklyn as a mere 2.5-point home favorite in Game 3. After blowing a double-digit lead in Game 2, the Nets are down 0-2 in the series. Considering that no team has ever come back from a 0-3 deficit, Brooklyn will 100% treat this like it's Game 7. 

Celtics are a good team, but winning on the road in the playoffs is a tall task, especially against a top tier team like the Nets. I just don't think they are going to be able to match the intensity of Brooklyn in this game and I'm not convinced they are even going to win this series. Nets remind everyone of just how good they are. Give me Brooklyn -2.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Sharp Money PLAY OF THE WEEK (Raptors +3.5) 

I absolutely love the Raptors as a 3.5-point home dog against the 76ers in Game 4. Philly may be up 3-0 in the series and almost a lock to advance to the next round, but it's a lot harder than people think to close out a series on the road. Toronto is going to do everything in their power to win this game. 

Even though no team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit, it doesn't mean the Raptors aren't thinking they can be the first team to pull off the feat. There's also reason for Toronto to be optimistic they can turn this around, as they are set to get back one of their best players in Scottie Barnes, who missed both Game 2 and Game 3. Even if he doesn't play, I still think Toronto find a way to send this thing back to Philly for Game 5. Give me the Raptors +3.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Bucks -2)

I will gladly lay the 2-points with the Bucks in Game 3 at Chicago. I just think too much is being made of the Middleton injury. He's a great player and they need him if they want to repeat, but they got more than enough talent to beat this Bulls team. 

Chicago just couldn't miss in Game 2. They shot 49.4% from the field and 48% from behind the 3-point line. That's after they shot 32.3% from the field and 18.9% from deep in Game 1. I expect a much better defensive effort from Milwaukee and offensively the Bulls still don't have any answers for the size of the Bucks. Give me Milwaukee -2! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Grizzlies -1) 

I have cashed in each of the first two games in this series. I grabbed the Timberwolves +6.5 in Game 1 and then cashed with Memphis -6.5 in Game 2. It's really went exactly as I expected with Minnesota feeding off that play-in win in Game 1, while also catching the Grizzlies a bit flat. Memphis didn't just answer with a win in Game 2, they won going away 124-96. 

I just think Memphis needed that wake-up call to get the juices going and I don't see them taking any different approach in Game 3. Their mission is to take back home court and I just think they are by far away the better team. It's been a great run for Minnesota, but they are getting way too much love with this line at basically a pick'em. Give me the Grizzlies -1! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR (Bulls +10) 

I will gladly take my chances with Chicago catching 10-points in Game 2 of their 1st Round series with the Bucks. This is the same line we saw in Game 1, which Chicago covered in a 86-93 loss. That was with the Bulls playing about as poorly as they could offensively. Chicago shot just 32.3% from the field, easily their worst shooting performance of the season. 

For them to play that poor offensively and only lose by 7 has to give this team a lot of confidence going into Game 2. I know the Bulls struggled against good teams, but no way should they be getting double-digits. Too much value to pass up. Give me the Bulls +10! 

Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Grizzlies -6.5) 

I got no problem laying the 6.5 with Memphis in Game 2. We took the points in Minnesota's outright win in Game 1. Just as I expected, the Grizzlies struggled to match the intensity of the Timberwolves. People forget just how long it's been since Memphis played in a real meaningful game. 

I fully expect them to bounce back and not just win Game 2, but win it going away. The series isn't over, but losing 2 at home is a recipe for an early exit. Memphis will be LOCKED in. I don't know that the same can be said for Minnesota, who got the split they needed. Give me the Grizzlies -6.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (76ers -7.5) 

I'm going to lay the 7.5 with the 76ers at home in Game 2. Philly dominated the Raptors in Game 1, winning by a final score of 131-111. I really think the 76ers are coming into the playoffs a bit undervalued, as the hype around this team dropped quite a bit down the stretch with Harden not exactly playing great. 

Thing is, the 76ers are a deeper team than they get credit for and the biggest thing for me is they won Game 1 by 20 with about as bad a night as you are going to see from Embiid in the playoffs. He was just 5 of 15 shooting for 19 points. The other big thing is for me is the Raptors are down 2 starters with Scottie Barnes hurting his ankle in Game 1 and Gary Trent Jr. doubtful with an illness. Give me the 76ers -7.5! 

Confidence Rating: 6 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER

I got to take my chances with the Pelicans as a 10.5-point underdog in Game 1 of their 1st Round series with the Suns. I know New Orleans just played two elimination games in the last few days, but no way should they be getting double-digits in Game 1. 

Phoenix might very well be the best team in the NBA, but they have had that No. 1 seed locked up for quite some time. I think they could struggle to match the intensity of a very confident Pelicans team. Much like we saw on Saturday with the Timberwolves going on the road and beating the Grizzlies. This is a much better New Orleans team since they added in C.J. McCollum and I just don't think the books have this team priced accurately right now. Give me the Pelicans +10.5! 

Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Situational ATS SLAUGHTER

I got no problem laying the 6.5 with the Heat at home against the Hawks in Game 1 of their 1st Round series. I have a hard time seeing Atlanta having enough gas in the tank after basically playing two Game 7's earlier this week. Hawks had a winner take all game at home against the Hornets on Wednesday and then a winner take all game at Cleveland on Friday. 

On the flip side you got a rested Heat team that I think has a chip on their shoulder even though they come in as the No. 1 seed in the East. Miami gets some love, but for the most part no one really talks about this team having a real shot. Most have the Nets, Bucks or 76ers coming out of the East. I think them wanting to prove something and the Hawks playing on fumes will result in a much more lopsided score in Game 1. Give me the Heat -6.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

**TOP PLAY** NBA Playoffs Rd 1 VEGAS INSIDER 

I'll gladly take 6.5 points with the Timberwolves in Game 1 of their 1st round series with the Grizzlies. I'm not giving Minnesota much of a chance in the series, but I do think the scenario here gives them a shot at stealing Game 1. 

Minnesota has all the confidence in the world after their play-in win over the Clippers, especially given how they were able to pull that game out with Towns scoring just 11 points on 3 of 11 shooting and fouling out midway thru the 4th quarter. 

Grizzlies haven't played a real meaningful game in quite some time, as they were pretty much locked into the No. 2 seed weeks ago. A little bit of rust and not really feeling threatened by this Timberwolves team could open the door here for Minnesota. Give me the Timberwolves +6.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Cavs +2.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with Cleveland catching 2.5 at home against the Hawks in Friday's winner take all for the No. 8 seed in the playoffs. The Cavs are being extremely disrespected here as a home dog. Don't overreact to the Hawks blowout win at HOME against the Hornets. Same thing with Cleveland's ugly loss to the Nets. Atlanta is not the same team on the road and the Cavs should play much better at home. Hawks are also not anywhere close to the same level as Brooklyn. Even bigger plus here would be if Jarrett Allen gives it a go. Either way, I like Cleveland to win this game. Give me the Cavs +2.5! 

40* (NBA) - Tuesday Play-In NO-BRAINER (Nets -8.5) 

I got no problem laying the 8.5 with the Nets at home in Tuesday's 7/8 play-in matchup. The Cavs have just not been the same team since losing Jarrett Allen. Cleveland went 7-11 after he was lost, falling out of the Top 4 in the East all the way to the No. 8. 

There was some hope that Allen would be back for the playoffs, but he's been ruled out of this game. I just don't think they have any chance of winning this game without him. These two teams just played a few days ago at Brooklyn and the Nets won that game by 11.

The 1st and 4th quarters really stand out. Nets won the 1st quarter 34-19 and then after taking their foot off the gas outscored them 35-19 in the 4th. They aren't going to take their foot off the gas in the postseason. Give me the Nets -8.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Hornets +2.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Hornets at +2.5 on the road against the Hornets. With the Raptors win over the 76ers last night, Toronto is now 2 in front of the Bulls with 2 to play for the No. 5 seed. For Chicago to get out of the No. 6, they not only need to win out, but they need the Raptors to lose to the Rockets AND Knicks in their last two. 

Simply put, there's no real incentive for the Bulls to play hard and have your star players play a ton of minutes. Charlotte is in the playoffs, but these last two games mean something. Right now the Hornets are sitting at No. 10, but are just 1 back of the Hawks and Nets, who are tied for No. 7. I have to think they are motivated here. Give me the Hornets +2.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (76ers +1.5) 

I'll take my chances with the 76ers as a 1.5-point dog against the Raptors. Toronto has been playing great down the stretch, but we did just see them lose at home on Sunday to the Heat 109-114 as a 5-point favorite. Simply put, this is too good a price to pass up on Philly. 

Plenty of incentive here for the 76ers, who will go into this game tied with Milwaukee for the third best record in the East. They are also just 1/2-game back of No. 2 seed Boston. With the Bucks facing off against the Celtics on Thursday, Philly can move into at worst the No. 3 with a win. 

Philly also comes in with some momentum, as they have won 3 straight. Toronto has also not shot the ball well in each of their last 3 games and 4 of their last 5 (shot 44% or worse from the field). Give me the 76ers +1.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks -10)

I'll gladly take my chances with the Hawks as a 10-point home favorite against the Wizards. I think the fact that the Wizards just beat the Timberwolves last night 132-114 as a 12.5-point dog, has created some value with Atlanta in this spot. 

Clearly Minnesota didn't come to play for them to lose by that many on their home floor to a bad team like Washington. I'm not worried about Atlanta not showing up. Hawks are off a humbling 10-point loss to the Raptors and are fighting to get into that 7/8 playoff matchup. 

This is a different Hawks team on their home floor and a team that overall has been playing great basketball for weeks now. When these two played on Mar. 4, Hawks won 117-114 in Washington. They won that game, despite getting out shot 42% to 54%. Atlanta haw shot 48% on the season at home this year. Give me the Hawks -10! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Raptors -4) 

I'll take my chances with Toronto laying just 4-points at home against the Hawks. I just think Atlanta is getting a little too much respect coming into this game. Hawks have won and covered 5 straight, the biggest of those wins coming last time out against the Nets. 

As good as Atlanta has been playing, they are not a team that you can trust on the road against a top tier opponent. Toronto last their last game at home to the Heat, but have been playing some of their best ball all season down the stretch. Raptors are 11-3 in their last 14 games. I just don't think it's asking a lot for Toronto to cover the small number. Give me the Raptors -4! 

50* (CBB) - N Carolina/Kansas CHAMPIONSHIP GAME Vegas Insider (Kansas -4) 

I'll gladly take my chances laying the 4-points with KU against UNC. It was a bad play by me to back Villanova on Saturday. I won't make the same mistake on Monday. As great as UNC has been down the stretch, the Jayhawks are the more talented team and in the much better spot coming out of Saturday's Final Four matchups. 

I get it's the title game, but I just feel it's going to be really hard for Duke to bounce back after that emotional win over Duke. That was one of the more hyped games I can remember and it was a dogfight from start to finish. 

I also don't think enough is being made of Bacot's injury late in that win over the Blue Devils. He's going to play, but he's likely not going to be 100%. He's been a difference maker for the Tar Heels. I just think they really need him to be great to keep this close enough to cover. Give me the Jayhawks -4!

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Cavs +5)

Give me Cleveland as a 5-point home dog against the 76ers. I've been fading the Cavs quite a bit down the stretch with Mobley and Allen both sidelined. While not having those two is still a concern, the price here is too good to pass up. 

Philly absolutely destroyed the Hornets 144-114 at home on Saturday to snap a 3-game skid. Not surprising to see them come out fired up in that spot. I don't know if they will have that same energy on the road playing on no rest. 

Philly is just 2.5-games back of Miami for the No. 1 seed, but there's just not enough games and they got to leapfrog two other teams (Bucks/Celtics) in the process. They know that and actually feel like they could decide to give a guy like Embiid a night off with the playoffs looming. 

Cavs will also be playing on no rest, but this one means a lot more to them. With Cleveland's win and the Bulls loss on Saturday, Cavs are just 2-back of Chicago for the No. 6 spot and getting out of the play-in games. I think it makes them a live dog here. Give me Cleveland +5! 

50* (CBB) N Carolina/Duke MAX UNIT Top Play (Duke -4)

I'll gladly take my chances with Duke laying the 4 against UNC. I really like this Tar Heels team, but I think they are going to have a tough time just making a game of it. I know UNC went on the road and beat Duke 94-81 in Coach K's final home game. 

That to me was more a product of the Blue Devils not handling the emotions that came with that game. I think it was of a blessing in disguise, as I think it prepared this team for what was to come in this NCAA Tournament. 

I think we are going to see something more along the lines of when these teams first played. Duke won that game 87-67 in Chapel Hill and it was even worse than the finale score indicates. The Blue Devils are simply the better team and I feel this is a discount with all the love UNC is getting. Duke was -11 in that home finale, which means they would have been around a 7.5-8 point favorite on a neutral. Give me the Blue Devils -4! 

40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Heat -2) 

I'll take my chances with Miami laying a mere 2-points on the road against the Bulls. We were very fortunate to get a cover with Chicago as a 3.5-point home favorite against the Clippers on Thursday. Bulls came from behind late to force OT and then went on to win 135-130. I really expected to see a better performance from Chicago in that game. 

I just think you have to lay it with Miami. The Heat have won back-to-back games since that surprising 4-game losing streak to take back control of the No. 1 seed in the East. They crushed the Kings 123-100 at home and then won at Boston 106-98. With the way the Bulls have struggled against the better teams, it's really hard to see the Heat not winning this game. 

This is also not nearly as big a game for the Bulls as it was against the Clippers. Chicago is now a full 3-games in front of the Cavs and having to play in the play-in games with just 5 to play. Give me the Heat -2! 

40* (CBB) - Villanova/Kansas VEGAS INSIDER (Villanova +4.5) 

I'll take my chances with Villanova catching the 4.5 against Kansas. Not many are giving the Wildcats a shot here after losing Justin Moore to an Achilles injury in their Elite 8 win over Houston. No question it's a big loss, but it has clearly been baked into this number. Villanova beat UConn by double-digits in the one game Moore missed during the regular season. 

They still got Gillespie running the show and you know they are going to slow this game down as much as they can. I think it's going to be really frustrating for Kansas on the offensive side of the ball, especially if they aren't hitting from deep early. I think it's going to lead to the Jayhawks pressing a bit and ultimately resulting in this game coming right down to the wire. Give me Villanova +4.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money PLAY OF THE WEEK (Nuggets -2.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Nuggets as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Timberwolves. Minnesota has lost 4 of their last 5. They have started out their current 4-game road trip with a 112-134 loss at Boston and a 102-125 loss at Toronto. Nuggets have won 4 of their last 5 and come in having won 3 straight. 

Denver should be plenty motivated here. They are currently No. 6 in the West and 3 games ahead of the T-Wolves at No. 7. If they win here they all but clinch the No. 6 and avoid any chance of the play-in. They can also still move up. They are really tied for 5th with Utah at the moment, two games back of the Mavs at No. 3. Give me the Nuggets -2.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Bulls -3.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Bulls as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against the Clippers. LA is getting way too much respect in this one. Yes. The Clippers just got back Paul George and won his first game back 121-115 at home against the Jazz, but let's not ignore the fact that they were down by as many as 25 in that game. 

It also takes a lot out of a team after rallying from that many down. Add in the travel to Chicago on just 1 day of rest and a game on deck tomorrow against at the Bucks. Could be really tough for LA to show up in the right mindset for this game. Keep in mind the Clippers are all but locked into the No. 8 seed, as they are 5.5 back of No. 7 Minnesota and 4.5 in front of No. 9 New Orleans. 

Bulls need this one a lot more, as they still have some work to do to avoid the play-in games. They are sitting at No. 5, tied with the Raptors, two games in front of the Cavs. Bulls are also a really good home team. They are 26-10 at the United Center and 20-8 ATS as a home favorite. Give me the Bulls -3.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks -7) 

I'll take my chances with Atlanta as a 7-point road favorite against the Pacers. The Hawks are a very comfortable 4.5-games in front of the Knicks for the 10th and final spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race. However, with New York having won 3 straight, I see Atlanta being extremely motivated until they clinch. 

Not only does Atlanta have something to play for, but they are facing a Pacers team that seems to have lost their fight. Indiana lost by 30 at Memphis on Thursday and then by 40 at Toronto on Saturday. They just don't have enough guys healthy to be competitive. This is one the Hawks should win rather easily. Give me Atlanta -7! 

40* (NBA) - Smart Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Lakers +4.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Lakers as a 4.5-point road dog against the Pelicans. LA is getting no love right now, yet they have covered their last 2 and 3 of their last 4. Defense continues to be a problem for the Lakers, but they have shot the ball extremely well over their last 3 games (52% or better in all 3). 

The even bigger thing here is the rest advantage that LA has in this matchup. Lakers will be fresh, as they have had a full 3 days off since they last played. New Orleans on the other hand is playing in the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in the last 4 days overall. Give me the Lakers +4.5! 

40* (CBB) St. Peter's/UNC ATS NO-BRAINER (UNC -8)

I'll take my chances with N Carolina as a 8-point favorite. It's been a remarkable run for the Peacocks. They have made it further than any No. 15 seed before them. I just think the magic stops here. It's hard for these Cinderella stories to keep it going. We kind of saw that yesterday, with Duke and Villanova really dominating from start to finish. 

Some might call UNC a bit of a Cinderella, but this is a team that was extremely undervalued coming into the tournament. Largely due to the lack of respect the entire ACC conference was getting. Tar Heels have been playing great basketball for two months now. 

One big difference between UNC and St. Peter's first 3 opponents is the Tar Heels like to really push the tempo and get their offense going in transition. It's exactly what you need to do against the Peacocks, given how good they are in the half court defense. Those other teams playing at St Peter's tempo really is what allowed them to pull off the upset. UNC is just going to be too much for them to handle on both sides of the ball. Give me the Tar Heels -8! 

50* (CBB) - Miami/Kansas Elite 8 VEGAS INSIDER (Kansas -5.5) 

I'll lay the 5.5 with the Jayhawks against the Hurricanes. I like this Miami team, but I just feel this is a horrible matchup for the Hurricane. Miami's defense has played great in their first 3 games of the tournament against USC, Auburn and Iowa St. Those offenses aren't close to what they will see from Kansas. You also can't ignore this is a Hurricanes defense that is ranked No. 114 in defensive efficiency. 

I also think people sleep on how good this Jayhawks defense is. They are ranked No. 23 in adjusted defense. I also think KU is going to really exploit the Hurricanes on the offensive glass and at the 3-point line. If the Jayhawks can take care of the ball like they have the last two games (7 turnovers vs Creighton & only 10 vs Providence), this could get ugly in a hurry. Give me Kansas -5.5! 

40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Grizzlies -1.5) 

I'll take my chances with Memphis as a slim 1.5-point home favorite against the Bucks. Both of these teams are playing great basketball as the season winds down. Milwaukee comes in having gone 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS over their last 12 games. Grizzlies are 10-3 SU and 8-5 ATS in their last 13. Even more important for this matchup, is that Memphis is 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home, including a recent 132-120 win over the Nets. 

While the Grizzlies are still playing without Morant, they have shown they can win without him. He didn't play in their big win over Brooklyn. Not like Milwaukee is full strength. Jrue Holiday isn't going to play and there's a chance Antetokoumpo sits this out, as he's been in and out with a knee injury. This to me is just too good a price to pass up on Memphis at home. Give me the Grizzlies -1.5! 

40* (NBA) - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Pacers +11) 

I'll take my chances with Indiana catching double-digits on the road against the Raptors. I just think this is a few too many for Toronto to be laying in this spot.

The Raptors have really went through a tough portion of their schedule here in March. They have played 8 of their last 10 on the road, with the Spurs the only team they faced away from home who currently isn't in at least the play-in picture. With a MASSIVE home game on deck against the Celtics looming on Monday, I don't see Toronto being as invested in this game as some might think. Give me the Pacers +11! 

50* (CBB) - Elite 8 (Sat) MAX UNIT Top Play (Houston -2.5) 

I'll take my chances with Houston as a slim 2.5-point favorite against Villanova for the right to go the Final Four. No one seems to want to take a stand with the Cougars. No one has really been talking about them being the team that could win it all and I'm not sure why. 

Houston is now 32-5 with 3 of those 5 losses by 2 or fewer points. They were absolutely dominant in the AAC Tournament, beating Cincinnati by 13, Tulane by 20 and Memphis by 18. In the NCAA Tournament they crushed UAB by 14, beat Illinois by 15 and Arizona by 12. 

It wouldn't surprise me if they made it 7 straight wins by double-digits. I just don't love this Villanova team like some others. I think they have really benefited from a favorable schedule in the NCAA Tournament. They have had to face Delaware, Ohio St and Michigan. Give me the Cougars -2.5! 

40* (CBB) - Sweet 16 (FrI) ATS SLAUGHTER (Iowa St +2.5) 

I'll take my chances with Iowa State as a 2.5-point dog against the Hurricanes. I've been wrong on the Cyclones. I didn't see them winning either of their first two games against LSU or Wisconsin. I'm not going to make that same mistake with them again against Miami. 

ISU is now 15-0 outside of Big 12 play with wins over Xavier, Memphis, Creighton, Iowa, LSU and Wisconsin. I think that speaks volumes to just how much teams aren't ready for the pressure they bring on the defensive side of the ball. I expect them to give the Hurricanes a lot of problems and find a way to get just enough offense to advance to the Elite 8. Give me the Cyclones +2.5! 

40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Heat -6.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Heat laying 6.5 at home against the Knicks. I know the Knicks just went on the road and beat Charlotte 121-106 as a big dog, when they could have easily thrown in the towel after losing a huge game the previous day at home to the Hawks. 

I just don't buy they really believe they are still in it, trailing by 5 games with 9 to play. They simply had one of those games where they came out and couldn't miss. They scored 40-points in the 1st quarter and finished the game with 20 made 3-pointers. 

They aren't going to do that against what I think will be a very desperate Miami team. The frustration seemed to boil over for the Heat in their recent loss at home to the Warriors. They are now just 1-game ahead of the Bucks for the No. 1 seed. I don't think New York has a shot to keep this thing close. Give me the Heat -6.5! 

40* (CBB) - Sweet 16 (Fri) NO-BRAINER (Providence +7.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Friars as a 7.5-point dog against Kansas in Friday's Sweet 16 matchup. The Jayhawks are a very good and talented team, but they are not invincible. No team is in this tournament, which is why a lot of the top seeds have fallen. We just saw two No. 1 seeds lose last night. 

Providence has been greatly undervalued all year. This team might not win pretty, but they win and they are not afraid of the moment in a close game down the stretch. I think they got the defense to give the Jayhawks problems and enough offense to win this game outright. Give me the Friars +7.5! 

50* (CBB) - Sweet 16 PLAY OF THE MONTH (Texas Tech -1) 

I will gladly lay the 1-point with Texas Tech in their Sweet 16 showdown with Duke. I really wonder if we didn't know this was Coach K's last season, if people would view the Blue Devils a little differently. 

They just haven't been very sharp down the stretch. You have to wonder if all the pressure of feeling like they have to win it all for Coach K isn't getting to them. They really should have lost in the Round of 32 to a pretty average Michigan State team. 

I just think Texas Tech is the vastly better team. Duke hasn't seen a team that plays defense defense like the Red Raiders. No one in the ACC finished in the Top 40 in defensive efficiency. Even Michigan State, who they had some problems with only ranks No. 67 in that department. Texas Tech is No. 1. Give me the Red Raiders -1! 

40* (NBA) - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR (Pacers +12.5) 

Easy play for me on the Pacers as a double-digit dog against the Grizzlies on Thursday. I believe Memphis is going to have a terrible time getting up for this game. Grizzlies just played a MASSIVE home game last night against the Durant/Irving led Nets. A game they won 132-120 without Ja Morant. They put everything into that game. 

Now they play on no rest against a Pacers team they just beat in Indiana a little over a week ago by 33-points (135-102). If anything, I think that provides some motivation for the Pacers in the rematch. Not saying it will be enough to get the win, but I like Indiana to lurk around and cover the big number. Give me the Pacers +12.5! 

40* (CBB) - Sweet 16 (Thurs) VEGAS INSIDER (Arkansas +9.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Razorbacks as a 9.5-point dog against Gonzaga in the Sweet 16. I just think this is way too many points for the Bulldogs to be laying. It feels like the narrative after nearly getting knocked out in their last game by Memphis is that was the close-call the Bulldogs needed. Now they are going to just roll to the title. 

I'm not buying it. This is a very good Gonzaga team, but they are far from invincible. Arkansas is also no pushover. While the rest of  the SEC has flamed out of the NCAA Tournament, you could argue no team was playing better than the Razorbacks in that conference the last couple months of the season. 

I think you need to be a strong defensive team to compete with Gonzaga. Arkansas is definitely that. Razorbacks finished No. 14 in the country in defensive efficiency. If they can get a guy or two to get hot from the outside, they not only can keep it close, but win this game outright. Give me Arkansas +9.5! 

50* (NBA) Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Pistons +5.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the Pistons as a 5.5-point home dog against the Hawks. Detroit finally failed to cover a game, as they lost 115-119 at home to the Blazers as a 10-point favorite. Prior to that the Pistons had covered 14 straight. No reason to jump off the ship after them not playing their best against a really bad team. 

This team clearly is motivated to finish strong and the Hawks are a team they should get up for, especially at home. On the flip side, Atlanta just played a big game at New York against the Knicks last night. A game that all but locked them into at worst a play-in game. Could see them being really flat for this one. Give me the Pistons +5.5! 

40* (NBA) - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Hornets -6.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Hornets as a 6.5-point home favorite against the Knicks. I was on New York in last night's home game against Atlanta, as I felt that was a must-win for them to realistically have a shot at making the playoffs. They are now a full 6-games back of the 10th and final spot with just 10 to play. They are done and they know it. 

I kinda knew going into that game whether I would be backing or fading New York in this game based on the outcome. I just don't think there's going to be any fight in this Knicks team and Randle may not play. Give me the Hornets -6.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Bulls +7.5) 

I'll take my chances with Chicago catching 7.5 on the road against the Bucks. Chicago will be on a back-to-back, but are coming off a stress-free 113-99 win over the Raptors on Monday. Bulls are still waiting on the return of Lonzo Ball, but have recently got back Caruso and Pat Williams. Two guys that can make a big difference for this team. 

I also think that the Bulls are really searching for a win against a top tier team, as they haven't exactly performed well against those caliber a teams this year. Bucks are kind of just going through the motions to close out the season. For them it's just making sure they are healthy going into the playoffs. They won't have Khris Middleton tonight, which is a big loss for them and certainly big enough that Milwaukee shouldn't be laying this many points. Give me the Bulls +7.5! 

40* (CBB) - Late Night ATS SLAUGHTER (TCU +10) 

I'll take my chances with TCU as a double-digit dog against Arizona. Much like with Memphis last night in the final game against No. 1 Gonzaga, I think we got a dog that is much better than the perception and a overvalued No. 1 seed. 

You just can't overreact to some of these Big 12 records because of just how good this conference was top to bottom. West Virginia finished last at 4-14 and are still the No. 66 ranked team at KenPom. In TCU's last 7 games they have wins over Texas Tech, Kansas, Texas and Thursday's blowout win over Seton Hall. 

All the pressure is on the Wildcats, as no one is giving the Horned Frogs a shot here. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they did. Give me TCU +10! 

40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Miami +7.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the Hurricanes as a 7.5-point underdog against Auburn. I think the ACC has come into this tournament extremely undervalued. UNC is already in the Sweet 16 after upsetting No. 1 seed Baylor and 3 more have a shot to join them today. That includes No. 11 seed Notre Dame, who won a 2OT play-in game on Wednesday against Indiana and then two days later beat No. 6 Alabama by 14 points. 

Miami was right there with Duke, UNC and Notre Dame as the top dog in the ACC. The Hurricanes have really done nothing but impress since Dec. 1. They finished 14-6 in ACC play with 5 of the 6 losses coming by 4-points or fewer. They also lost by just 4-points to Duke in the ACC Tournament. 

Auburn is a good team, but far from invincible. They started out really slow in their win over Jacksonville State and were certainly not their sharpest down the stretch. In their 4 games leading up to the tournament, they lost at Tennessee, needed OT to win at Miss St, only beat S Carolina by 11 at home and then lost to Texas A&M in their first game of the SEC Tournament. Would not surprise me at all if Miami won. Give me the Hurricanes +7.5! 

40* (NBA) - Prime Time VEGAS INSIDER (Knicks +5) 

I'll take my chances with the Knicks catching 5-points at home against the Jazz. New York's been playing better of late. They had covered 7 straight before only winning by 3 as a 6-point favorite in their last game against the Wizards. Worth noting that they probably should have covered, as they led by 15 with around 4 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. 

I also like going against the Jazz in this spot. Utah is feeling pretty good about themselves after a 30-point win over the Clippers in their last game and they got a game on deck tomorrow at Brooklyn against Durant and the Nets. Easy for them to not be locked in for this game against a Knicks team that is fighting for their playoff lives. Give me the Knicks +5!  

50* (CBB) - Round of 32 PLAY OF THE TOURNAMENT (Wisconsin -4.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the Badgers at -4.5 against Iowa State. I know Wisconsin hasn't exactly impressed of late, losing their regular-season finale to Nebraska to prevent an outright Big Ten title, falling to Michigan St in their first game of the Big Ten Tournament and then barely getting by Colgate in the 1st round. 

I think it has people forgetting what this team has accomplished this year. As long as Johnny Davis is healthy, this team can beat anyone left in the field. Davis did get hurt against Nebraska, but he had 25 points in the game against Colgate. 

I also think Wisconsin matches up extremely well with ISU. The Cyclones are a team that relies on their defense, because there's not a lot of good options offensively. The best thing their defense does is force turnovers. They ranked No. 4 in the country in defensive TO%. They were just No. 217 in defensive 2-PT%, so when teams didn't turn it over they often got easy baskets. No team was better than the Badgers at protecting the ball. They are No. 1 in offensive TO%. 

Unless the Cyclones are hitting shots, and hitting a lot of them, I think it will be extremely difficult for them to keep this within single-digits. Give me Wisconsin -4.5! 

40* (CBB) - Late Night ATS MASSACRE (Memphis +10.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Tigers as a 10.5-point dog against Gonzaga. The Bulldogs should not be laying double-digits in this one. Memphis was a different team in the second half of the season. They ranked in the Top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency after that slow start. The one thing that has really hurt Memphis is turnovers and that doesn't figure to be a huge problem in this game. One thing that Gonzaga's defense doesn't do well is force turnovers. The Bulldogs ranked just No. 281 in defensive turnover %. I think that's going to allow the Tigers to make a game of it and possibly even pull off the upset. Give me Memphis +10.5! 

40* (NBA) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Pistons +7) 

I'll take my chances with the Pistons as a 7-point dog against the Cavaliers. The books keep undervaluing this Detroit team and we just keep cashing tickets on the Pistons. No team has been better against the number than Detroit over the last month. Pistons have covered 13 straight games. 

I've said it over and over, you have to keep taking this team until the books make the proper adjustments. It certainly doesn't feel like they have here, as you have a Cavs team that has been up and down of late. Cleveland is just 5-9 SU in their last 14 and have really struggled on defense without big man Jarrett Allen. You also have the Cavs in a horrible spot, as they are playing on no rest after a hard fought 119-116 win against the Nuggets last night. Give me the Pistons +7! 

50* (CBB) - NCAA Tourn MAX UNIT Top Play (Tennessee -6) 

I got no problem laying 6-points with the Vols against the Wolverines. I really think Tennessee has the goods to win the whole thing and I just don't see them having any problem beating up on an overrated Michigan team. The Wolverines are a good offensive team, but they are going up against maybe the best defense in the country. Tennessee gives you know easy looks and have the guys down low to really negate Michigan's go-to guy in Hunter Dickinson. 

On the flip side, Michigan doesn't really have the good to slow down this Vols offense. Wolverines are one of the worst teams in the country in forcing turnovers (No. 336) and they give up way to many easy shots (No. 206 in 2-Pt% defense). Give me the Vols -6! 

40* (CBB) - NCAA Tourn VEGAS INSIDER (LSU -4) 

I'll take my chances with LSU as a 4-point favorite against Iowa State. The Cyclones caught everyone's attention with their perfect 12-0 start in non-conference play, which included wins over Xavier, Creighton, Iowa and Memphis. 

While they were far from a pushover in the Big 12, they did open up conference play just 3-9 before a 4-game winning streak saved their season, though they did finish just 7-11 in the Big 12 (5 of the 7 wins by 4 or fewer points). 

I know LSU has lost their coach and didn't live up to their own hype in the SEC this year, but I still think they are the far more talented team. The Tigers have a superstar in Tari Eason and a team that finished the season ranked No. 5 in the country defensive efficiency. I really think having a go-to-guy against ISU is big and having a good defense is also big with how much ISU struggles to score the basketball. Give me the Tigers -4! 

40* (NBA) - Big Money ATS MASSACRE (Nets -14) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the Nets as a huge 14-point home favorite against the Blazers. I'm usually looking to fade Brooklyn at home, because of Kyrie not being able to play, but it's not going to matter that he's not on the floor. 

Portland in my opinion has to be an automatic fade right now, at least until they show us they actually want to win games. The Blazers are down to nothing with all the guys they got hurt and all the guys they traded away. 

They are 1-8 in their last 9 games with the only win coming at home to what I think is an equally bad Wizards team. It's not just the win/loss record, but the margin of defeat. All 8 losses in this stretch have come by at least 14 with 6 of them by 30 or more points. Give me Brooklyn -14! 

40* (CBB) NCAA Tourn ATS NO-BRAINER (Va Tech +1.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Hokies as a 1.5-point dog against the Longhorns on Friday. Few teams come into the tournament riding a bigger wave of momentum than Virginia Tech. The Hokies were arguably on the outside looking in to the field of 68 when the ACC Tournament started last week. 

They took any doubt out of the equation by winning 4 games in 4 days with the last 3 coming against teams in the field this weekend in Notre Dame (87-80), UNC (72-59) and Duke (82-67). 

Keep in mind the strong play goes back further than that tournament, as they won 9 of their last 11 in the regular-season. 

As for Texas, I've never really thought they were as good as what people thought and they have zero momentum coming in after losing their final two regular-season games and then falling to TCU in their first game of the Big 12 Tournament. Give me Virginia Tech +1.5! 

40* (CBB) NCAA Tourn ATS SLAUGHTER (Alabama -3.5) 

I'll take my chances with Alabama as a 3.5-point favorite against Notre Dame. I would have liked the Crimson Tide at this price if this was a set first round matchup when the brackets came out on Sunday. 

So it's easy to like them given that Notre Dame had to play Wednesday in a play-in game against Rutgers. A game that had to take every ounce of energy the Irish had, as it went to double-overtime. That's a lot of extra minutes for a team that really only uses a 6-man rotation. Add in the long flight to San Diego right after that game and I just don't think the Irish will have near enough to be competitive in this one. Give me the Crimson Tide -3.5! 

50* (CBB) - NCAA Tourn MAX UNIT Top Play (Purdue -16.5) 

I got no problem laying the big number with the Boilermakers on Friday. Purdue might not have won the Big Ten regular-season or Tournament title, but I still think they are the most talented team out of that conference. They got a difference maker at point guard in Jaden Ivey and two imposing big men in Zach Edey and Trevion Williams. 

Yale simply doesn't have the size to compete with the Boilermakers. The Bulldogs have just two guys taller than 6-5 that get minutes and that's 6-7 Isaiah Kelly and 6-8 E.J. Purdue is going to have a field day inside, which is going to lead to wide open looks from deep. Yale lost by 36 to Seton Hall, by 22 to Auburn and by 17 to St Mary's in non-conference. Give me Purdue -16.5! 

40* (CBB) NCAA Tourn Late Night SLAUGHTER (San Francisco +2) 

I'll take my chances with San Francisco catching 2-points against Murray State. Everyone is picking the Racers in this matchup and while I think Murray State is a good team, I'm not as high on them. 

Going undefeated in conference play and backing it up with a conference tournament title is impressive, but the Ohio Valley is also a really bad conference other than Belmont. Of the 9 other teams in the league, 7 rank 240th or worse in KenPoms rankings. 

Yes they beat Memphis in non-conference, but the Tigers weren't a very good team early in the year. The only Power 5 team they played was Auburn and they lost that game by 13 and it wasn't that close. They railed by 21 with 2.5 mins to play before going on a meaningless run late to make it look respectable. 

I think San Francisco has the better resume and are much more battle-tested going into the NCAA Tournament. Give me the Dons +2!  

40* (CBB) - NCAA Tourn VEGAS INSIDER (Arkansas -5)

I'll gladly take my chances with Arkansas as a mere 5-point favorite against Vermont. The Catamounts are a sexy upset pick and I'm just not buying it. Vermont was the best team in a bad America East Conference. They went 17-1 in league play with the next best team going 11-7.

In their two non-conference games against Power 5 teams they lost by 10 at Providence and by 9 at Maryland. I don't think either of those teams are close to anywhere as good as this Razorbacks team. Their 64-82 loss to Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament looks bad, but it doesn't cover up the fact that they went 15-3 over their final 18 games with the two other losses by 4 on the road to Tennessee and by 1 at Alabama. Give me the Razorbacks -5! 

50* (CBB) - Thursday 1st Rd MAX UNIT Top Play (North Carolina -3.5) 

I got zero problem laying the 3.5 with the Tar Heels against Marquette. I really think people are sleeping on this North Carolina team. After starting the year just 12-6 with a 4-3 mark in ACC play, they closed out the season winning 12 of their final 15. 

One of the things that I think is keeping them under the radar is the fact their 59-72 loss in the ACC Tournament to Va Tech. What people ignore is just how good the Hokies have been playing. They followed up that win with a 82-67 victory against Duke in the title game. 

Marquette has some nice wins and were able to hang with some good teams early on non-conference play. The problem is they weren't able to sustain it and actually played much worse down the stretch. Golden Eagles went just 4-6 over their final 10, including an ugly 63-74 loss to Creighton in their only game of the Big East Tournament. Give me North Carolina -3.5! 

40* (CBB) NCAA Tourn Early Bird MASSACRE (Colorado St +1.5) 

I'll take my chances with Colorado State as a small dog against Michigan early on Thursday. I'm just not a big believer in this Wolverines team. They never played up to their potential and losing their head coach Juwan Howard to a suspension to close out the regular-season did them no favors. They never won more than 3 games in a row all season. 

Colorado State finished 2nd in a very good Mountain West Conference that sent 4 teams to the tournament. They only lost 5 times all season and closed out the year winning 9 of their last 11. They also showed they can hang in non-conference, beating the likes of Creighton by 14 and St. Mary's by 16. Wouldn't shock me at all if they won by double-digits here. Give me the Rams +1.5!

40* (NBA) - Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Kings +9.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the Kings as a 9.5-point home dog against the Bucks tonight. Sacramento has been covering at a high rate over the last few weeks, as they are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games and come into this one off 3 straight covers. 

While the Bucks have been playing pretty good ball as well, going 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games, this is not a good spot for Milwaukee. The Bucks are playing the 3rd of 4 game road trip and just got done playing two massive games at Golden State and Utah. Will be tough for them to give the Kings the respect they deserve. Give me Sacramento +9.5! 

40* (CBB) - Big Money ATS ANNIHILATOR (Florida -6.5) 

I'll take my chances with Florida as a 6.5-point favorite over Iona in the NIT. The public really likes to get behind this Gaels team, largely because of Rick Pitino being their head coach. He certainly did some good things with Iona this year, but I think the Gaels will have a tough time showing up in this game. 

The NIT is not where Iona expected to be playing this week. The Gaels had to feel like they were a lock to make the NCAA Tournament after cruising the MAAC regular-season title, finishing a full 3-games ahead of runner-up St. Peter's. Those NCAA Tournament hopes came crashing to the ground, as Iona was stunned in their first game of the MAAC Tournament by Rider, who went off as a double-digit dog. Florida might not have been up to their standards this year, but they are without question the more talented and athletic team in this matchup. Give me the Gators -6.5! 

40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (UNI +4.5) 

I'll take my chances with Northern Iowa as a 4.5-point dog in Wednesday's NIT matchup with St. Louis. The Panthers had quite the turnaround this year. UNI started the season just 4-7 before flipping a switch and going 14-4 in MVC play, winning the outright regular-season title over a very good Loyola-Chicago team. 

The Panthers did get routed by the Ramblers in the rubber match during the MVC Tournament, but that shouldn't keep them from being motivated to put on a good showing in the NIT. No disrespect to St Louis, but I think this line should be closer to a pick'em, making this a big time value play for me. Give me the Panthers +4.5! 

40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (76ers -3.5) 

I will gladly lay the 3.5 on the road with the 76ers in Wednesday's game at Cleveland. Good time to buy low on Philly after they have failed to cover 3 straight and coming off an upset loss at home to the Nuggets. 

You also have a Cavs team that is slipping and missing some key guys. Cleveland is just 4-8 in their last 12 games going just 3-8-1 ATS during this stretch. They just aren't the same team without Jarrett Allen in the lineup and he's going to really be missed in this game against Embiid. Look for the 76ers to get right with a big road win and easy cover. Give me Philly -3.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Hornets -1.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with Charlotte as a slim 1.5-point home favorite against the Hawks. Big time value here with the Hornets at home. Charlotte is just 6-13 in their last 13 games, but a lot of that has to do with a brutal stretch in their schedule and them battling some injuries. Hornets have won their last two behind big time offensive games, scoring 142 at New Orleans and 134 at OKC. 

No reason to expect them to slow down at home against a Hawks team that has been awful on the road and have really struggled defensively of late. Atlanta is just 12-21 on the road this season and have allowed 116.8 ppg on 49.3% shooting over their last 5 games. Give me the Hornets -1.5! 

50* (CBB) - NCAA Tourn Play-In ATS NO-BRAINER (Indiana -3.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with Indiana as a mere 3.5-point favorite against Wyoming in Tuesday's Play-In game. The Hoosiers caught fire in the Big Ten Tournament, upsetting Michigan and Illinois before a hard-fought loss to one of the hottest teams in the conference in Iowa, who went on to beat Purdue for the title the next day. 

Some might say that Wyoming doesn't belong in the field of 68. I think the do, but I also think they are outmatched and outclassed in this one. The Cowboys were very competitive in a strong Mountain West Conference this year, but their only Power 5 win in non-conference play came in OT against a sub-par Washington team. They also lost to a very mediocre Stanford team and got annihilated by 94-65 by Arizona. 

Look for Indiana's defense and Wyoming's inability to force turnovers (ranked #316 in defensive TO%) to be the difference. Cowboys ranked just 218 in 3-PT% and face a Hoosiers defense that was No. 7 in the country in 2-PT% defense. Give me Indiana -3.5! 

40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER (Pistons +13) 

I'll take my chances with the Pistons as a 13-point dog against the Heat on Tuesday. We have made a good stack of cash backing Detroit of late, as the Pistons just keep covering the number. Detroit has now covered 11 in a row. 

I see no reason to not keep backing the Pistons if the books are going to continue to undervalue them on the line. Miami is a great team, but elite teams often have a hard time getting up for teams that are perceived to be bottom-feeders. Heat have also had some struggles from the field of late. They have shot 40% or worse in 2 of their last 3 games, including just 39.8% last time out in a 9-point home loss to the Timberwolves. Give me the Pistons +13! 

40* (CBB) - NIT Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Missouri State +6) 

I'll take my chances with Missouri State as a 6-point dog against Oklahoma in Tuesday's NIT action. The Sooners may be saying that they are going to prove the committee wrong for not including them in the NCAA Tournament, but I'm not buying it. 

I think this Oklahoma team was completely devastated not getting into the Big Dance and will have a really tough time getting up for this game. It doesn't help they are playing a pesky Missouri State team that closed out the regular-season going 18-5 and were an OT loss to Drake in the MVC semis from making the title game. Give me the Bears +6! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Bulls -3.5) 

I'll take my chances with Chicago as a 3.5-point road favorite against the Kings on Monday. The Bulls will probably be without Zach LaVine for this one, which I think is definitely playing into the favorable number for Chicago in this matchup. 

While LaVine is a big piece of the Bulls lineup, I don't think it's going to hurt Chicago all that much against a Kings team that is playing little to no defense. Sacramento has allowed each of their last 12 opponents to shoot 46% or better from the floor with 7 of the 12 hitting 50% or better. 

This is also a Chicago team that has feasted on bad teams of late, covering 7 of their last 10 against a team with a losing record. Bulls are also 35-16-1 ATS last 52 as a favorite and 17-5 ATS last 22 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Give me Chicago -3.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Rockets +6) 

I'll gladly take my chances with Houston as a 6-point road dog against the Pelicans. I get the Rockets aren't a very good team, but no way should New Orleans be laying this big a number with both C.J. McCollum and Brandon Ingram out of the lineup.

Neither played in their last game and they got annihilated at home by a struggling Hornets team, giving up over 140 points in the process. I not only think Houston can keep it within the number, but I give them a great shot here of winning this game outright. Give me the Rockets +6! 

40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Pistons +4.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Pistons as a 4.5-point home dog against the Clippers. Detroit has been the best bet in the NBA over the last month. Pistons have covered 10 straight, going a perfect 9-0 ATS since returning from the All-Star break.

They haven't just been covering big numbers in losses either. Detroit is 6-4 SU during this stretch with 2 of the losses coming against the Celtics and another against the Bulls. The Clippers have lost 3 of their last 4 and just aren't a team that can be trusted laying points. LA has gone just 7-15 ATS this season when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Give me the Pistons +4.5! 

40* (CBB) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Texas A&M -6.5) 

I'll take my chances with Texas A&M as a 6.5-point dog against Tennessee in the SEC Title game. The Aggies have caught fire at the right time. Much like we saw in the ACC with Virginia Tech catching fire and riding that momentum to an ACC Tournament title. 

Aggies started it off with a OT win against Florida on Thursday, got by Auburn on Friday and then rolled Arkansas on Saturday. Add that to their 5-1 finish in SEC play, they are now 8-1 in their last 9. 

The work is not done, as they must-win this game to get in the NCAA Tournament, which I think clearly makes them the more motivated team. Tennessee is in no matter what and likely no worse than #3 seed, even if they lose. You also have the Vols coming off a huge win over Kentucky, which I think could set them up to come out a bit flat. Give me Texas A&M +6.5! 

40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR (Kings +9.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Kings as a 9.5-point road dog against the Jazz. This is just way too many points for Utah to be laying.

Utah is just 2-7 ATS last 9 games and will be playing this game on no rest after losing last night in San Antonio 102-104. Kings have lost 8 of their last 10, but are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 and have covered 4 of their last 5 as an underdog.

Not only is Utah playing on no rest (also 3rd game in 4 days), they got a huge lookahead game on deck against Milwaukee on Monday. I not only think Sacramento can keep it close enough to cover, I wouldn't be shocked at all if they won this game outright. Give me the Kings +9.5! 

40* (NBA) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Bucks -1.5)

I'll gladly take my chances with the Bucks as a 1.5-point road favorite against the Warriors tonight. While Golden State is coming off a 113-102 road win at Denver, they have just not been playing that great of late. Warriors are just 4-9 SU in their last 13 games. 

I just don't see Golden State returning to that early season form until they get back Draymond Green. Not only will they be without Green for this matchup, but Andre Iguodala, Gary Parton II and Otto Porter Jr. are all out for this one. 

Milwaukee has coasted a lot of this season, but they will come to play against Steph and the Warriors in a prime time game on ABC. Give me the Bucks -1.5!