Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-29-21 | Montana v. Oregon -13 | 47-87 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Oregon -13) I think this is the perfect spot to buy low on the Ducks as a mere 13-point home favorite against Montana. Oregon has lost 3 of their last 4 and failed to cover in all 4 games, making them a very difficult team for the public to trust right now. Thing is, it's not like they have been losing to bad teams. The losses have come against BYU, St Mary's and Houston. All of which rank in the Top 40 in the country. I get they weren't exactly competitive in those games, but that doesn't mean they can't have their way with a team like Montana. You know the Ducks are going to give everything they got to get back in the win column and this is not a good Montana team. The Grizzlies are 4-2, but all 4 wins have come against a Non Div. I team or a team ranked outside the Top 225. They lost to No. 330 ranked North Dakota and lost by 37 at Mississippi St, who is ranked just 10 spots better than the Ducks. Give me Oregon -13! |
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11-29-21 | Blazers +8 v. Jazz | 107-129 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Blazers +8) I think this is just too good a price to pass up with the Blazers as a 8-point dog against the Jazz. While Portland does come in off two straight losses, where they failed to cover the spread, they weren't far off in either game and one of those losses was to the Warriors, who are winning and covering on everyone. Prior to these two games the Blazers had won and covered 4 in a row. The biggest thing for me in buying into this Portland team right now, is Damian Lillard is finally starting to play up to his potential after really playing poorly to start the year. I also think Utah's kind of going through the motions right now. The Jazz had failed to cover 3 straight prior to blowing out the Pelicans on Saturday, but keep in mind that was after they lost outright to New Orleans the night before as a 13-point favorite. In the two games prior they only won by 6 as a 12.5 pt favorite vs OKC and lost outright to Memphis as a 11-point favorite. Give me the Blazers +8! |
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11-28-21 | Kings v. Grizzlies UNDER 225.5 | 101-128 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 225.5) I really like the value we are getting with the UNDER 225.5 in Sunday's NBA matchup between the Kings and Grizzlies. On the season these aren't exactly UNDER teams, as both of these teams have been putting up a lot of points and giving up a lot at the same time. I just think that Memphis' offense is going to take a hit without Ja Morant on the floor. Not only he is he their best player, he's their point guard. He makes everything so much easier for everyone else. As for the Kings, I got a hard time seeing them wanting to turn this into a track meet after Friday's 3OT thriller that saw them beat the Lakers 141-137. Note that final score makes it look like it was track meet, but that was far from the case as the two teams ended regulation tied 100-100. Kings' point guard De'Aaron Fox played 53 out of 63 minutes in that game. Haliburton played 47 and Hield played 40. I just think this total is priced as if both teams were healthy and in good situational spots. Give me the UNDER 225.5! |
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11-28-21 | Bucks v. Pacers +2.5 | 118-100 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money ATS MASSACRE (Pacers +2.5) I'm going to take the Pacers as a 2.5-point home dog against the Bucks. The betting public will be all over Milwaukee at this price. I'll gladly fade the public and side with the books in this one. Yes, the Bucks have been playing better. They have won 6 straight, but they are just 6-10 ATS over their last 16 and are just going to be a team all season that is overvalued as the defending champs. It hasn't exactly been the toughest stretch for Milwaukee and they still aren't fully healthy with Lopez and DiVincenzo still out. Pacers are as healthy as they have been all season and are 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games with the only loss coming in OT. Indiana has also gone 6-3 SU and 6-3 ATS at home this year. Give me the Pacers +2.5! |
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11-28-21 | Evansville -6.5 v. Eastern Illinois | 70-54 | Win | 100 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Evansville -6.5) I think we are getting big time value with the Purple Aces laying single digits against this awful Eastern Illinois team. Evansville comes into this game having lost 4 straight and are just 2-6 to start the season. A lot of that is the schedule. They have 3 losses against teams ranked in the Top 80 at KenPom (Cincinnati, Belmont, UCF). The other 3 are all against quality teams who are ranked between 100 and 160. The Panthers from Charleston are ranked No. 345 out of the 358 teams that are ranked. Eastern Illinois is 1-5 with their only win coming against a smaller division opponent in Rockford. The only time they haven't lost by more than 20 is when they have faced an opponent that is also ranked outside the Top 300. Evansville is currently sitting at No. 232, but I believe are better than that. I still think their closer to their preseason rank of No. 170. Either way, they should win here by at least 10 points. Give me the Purple Aces -6.5! |
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11-27-21 | Suns v. Nets -1 | 113-107 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Nets -1) I will gladly take Brooklyn at basically a pick'em at home against the Suns. The Nets have been playing much more like the team we expected to see right from the start, as James Harden is finally playing up to his potential. After how bad this team lost at home to Golden State recently, I see the Nets being at their best for this matchup against a Suns team that hasn't lost since October. Not to say Phoenix isn't playing well, but the schedule has set up nicely for them during this win streak. There's also no question it has them overvalued right now by the oddsmakers. I also don't love the spot for the Suns, who are playing the final game of a 4 game road trip, they got the Warriors on deck and this will be their 5th game in the last 7 days. Give me the Nets -1! |
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11-27-21 | UCLA v. UNLV +10.5 | 73-51 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Public Money ATS SLAUGHTER (UNLV +10.5) I'll take my chances with the Runnin' Rebels catching 10.5 at home against UCLA. There's been so much hype around this Bruins team and rightfully so, that loss to Gonzaga isn't going to keep the public from laying big numbers with this team. I just think we are getting value with an inflated number. I also like what I've seen out of this UNLV team. While they are just 4-2, two of those losses came against NCAA Tournament caliber teams in Michigan and Wichita State. They were competitive in both. They lost by 13 to the Wolverines and by just 1 to the Shockers. I don't know if they can win this game outright, but keeping it within the number shouldn't be a problem. Give me the Runnin' Rebels +10.5! |
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11-26-21 | Kings +7.5 v. Lakers | 141-137 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Late Night ATS ANNIHILATOR (Kings +7.5) I cashed on the Kings as a short home dog in Wednesday's 125-121 win over the Blazers and I will gladly take a shot on Sacramento as a 7.5-point dog against a Lakers team that is still trying to figure things out. Betting public loves to bet LeBron and the Lakers, especially off a win and cover. Books know this and will inflate the numbers. We see this in the fact that LA is a mere 19-35 ATS last 2 seasons off a win. Lakers are also just 15-27 ATS last 42 as a home favorite. Give me the Kings +7.5! |
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11-26-21 | Iowa State v. Memphis UNDER 140 | 78-59 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Over/Under Total KNOCKOUT (Under 140) Based on the spread, the books are projecting a score here with a total of 140 in the lines of something like Memphis 76-64 and I just don't see it. I think as good as the Cyclones looked in their upset win over Xavier, they are going to have a miserable time trying to score against this Memphis defense. The Tigers are No. 1 in the country in defensive efficiency right now. They are No. 4 in 2pt% defense and No. 3 in block%. Iowa State simply doesn't have the shooting to get a lot of easy looks in this one. The key here is I think the Cyclones can hold their own defensively and make it tough on Memphis to get to 70 points. Give me the UNDER 140! |
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11-26-21 | Raptors v. Pacers -3.5 | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Pacers -3.5) I'll take my chances with the Pacers laying just 3.5-points at home against the Raptors. Toronto had a great comeback win on the road against Memphis on Wednesday, as they went from trailing 59-71 at the half to winning the game 126-113. It always takes a little more out of you playing from behind and I just don't trust this Raptors team to play well in this spot against what should be a hungry Pacers team that just lost in OT at home to Lakers. I really think Indiana is on the upswing right now and if it wasn't for LeBron going off, they would have beat LA. Even with that win at Memphis, the Raptors are just 3-7 SU and 3-7 ATS over their last 10 games and are in a bit of a flat/tired spot playing their 6th and final road game of a road trip that started with 4 games on the west coast. Give me the Pacers -3.5! |
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11-26-21 | Xavier v. Virginia Tech -2.5 | 59-58 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Sharp Money ATS DESTROYER (Va Tech -2.5) I'll lay it with the Hokies as they take on Xavier in a matchup between two teams that lost their first games of the NIT Season Tip-Off special. It was just much different showings from these two teams. The Musketeers lost by double-digits to a very mediocre ISU team as a near double-digit favorite. Va Tech more than held their own in a 71-77 loss to a really good Memphis team. It really looked like the Cyclones defense got to Xavier, which is really bad news for them because Va Tech is a much better defensive team than ISU. I just think the number here is too low. Give me the Hokies -2.5! |
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11-24-21 | Blazers v. Kings +3.5 | 121-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Situational Late Night MASSACRE (Kings +3.5) This is a bit of a plug your nose bet, but I'm going to take my chances with Sacramento catching points at home against the Blazers. I know the Kings have been bad of late, going just 1-8 SU and 1-8 ATS over their last 9 games. A stretch that recently resulted in head coach Luke Walton getting fired. While they lost their first game after Walton was fired 94-102 at home to a depleted 76ers team on Monday, they did show me something in that game. Sacramento held Philly to just 42.4% from the field and were up 9 in the 4th quarter. They just couldn't buy a basket in the final 10 minutes. I think we see this team come out inspired here and I really think it's a good spot to fade the Blazers. Not only is Portland playing the second of a back-to-back on the road, they got a showdown with Steph Curry and the Warriors on deck Friday. You also got to look at how different Portland has been at home compared to on the road, which I think is big here after the Blazers just played 4 straight at home. Portland is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS at home compared to just 1-7 SU and 1-7 ATS on the road this season. Give me the Kings +3.5! |
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11-24-21 | Raptors v. Grizzlies -3.5 | 126-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Grizzlies -3.5) I will lay the 3.5 at home with Memphis against the Raptors tonight. I think this Grizzlies team is on the upswing right now and are certainly going to be coming into this game with a lot of confidence after going on the road and beating the Jazz 119-118 as a 11-point dog in their last game. Memphis has won and covered 3 of their last 4 and are 6-3 SU and 6-3 ATS at home, compared to just 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS on the road. The other big key here is this is not a great spot for the Raptors. While Toronto is playing on 2 days of rest, this team has really been playing some bad basketball over the last few weeks. Raptors are just 2-7 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games. They are playing their 5th straight on the road (10th road game in their last 13 overall). They are not shooting the ball well and are really playing poorly on the defensive side (allowed 4 of their last 5 opponents to shoot 49% or better). Give me Grizzlies -3.5! |
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11-24-21 | Bulls -8.5 v. Rockets | Top | 113-118 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Bounce Back PLAY OF THE MONTH (Bulls -8.5) I love the Bulls to go on the road and easily cover the 8.5-point spread against an awful Rockets team. I think the biggest thing you got to make sure of when playing against Houston is that the team you are backing is motivated to play well, because this is definitely a team that is so bad that it can be really easy for teams to overlook. I'm confident the Bulls will be motivated, as Chicago is coming off easily their worst performance of the season in Monday's 77-109 loss at home to the Pacers. It was simply a massive letdown spot for the Bulls. Chicago had just played a 5-game west coast trip and in their first game back had a big revenge game against the Knicks. Not a surprise they didn't have it against Indiana in the second leg of a back-to-back. Houston hasn't won a game since beating OKC back on Oct. 22nd and are losing on average by 11.2 ppg. Give me the Bulls -8.5! |
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11-24-21 | Xavier -8 v. Iowa State | 70-82 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Xavier -8) I will gladly lay the 8-points with the Musketeers as they take on Iowa State in the NIT Season Tip-Off in Brooklyn. I just think this is a much bigger mismatch than what the books are suggesting. Xavier comes in ranked 33rd in the KenPom rankings and have started out 4-0. They didn't play great in their opener against Niagara, but have looked really good in 3 games following. They rolled a quality Kent St team 73-59, beat Ohio State at home 71-65 and crushed Norfolk St 88-48. Iowa State is also 4-0 and I believe that record is what really has the number lower than it should be. The Cyclones have played 3 teams who rank outside the Top 290 and the one impressive win came at home against Oregon State, who had to travel quite a ways to play in a very tough environment at Hilton Coliseum. That's also an Oregon State team that has started just 1-4 with their only win against Portland State and have lost to the likes of Samford at home. I still think this is an ISU team that is closer to the team that went 2-22 last year than what their 4-0 start would lead you to believe. Give me Xavier -8! |
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11-24-21 | Connecticut v. Auburn UNDER 143 | 115-109 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (UNDER 143) I think we are getting some big time value with the UNDER at 143 in Wednesday's early matchup between No. 22 UConn and No. 19 Auburn in the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas. I think we are seeing an inflated total due to the big numbers that these two teams have put up early against some much weaker defenses. UConn is one of the highest scoring teams in the country right now, as they are averaging 92.0 ppg on 50.2% shooting. That's going to happen when you are as talented as the Huskies against the schedule they have faced. UConn's highest ranked team they have played in KenPom's rankings is LIU at No. 275. The other 3 teams all ranked outside the Top 315. All of those teams rank outside the Top 200 in defensive efficiency. Now they face an Auburn team that is 34th in the country in defensive efficiency and 31st in effective field goal defense. Tigers also rank 7th in the country in block%. Auburn is averaging 76.0 ppg, but we saw how their offense looked against a good defense in their last game, as they managed just 58 points against a USF team that ranks 91st in defensive efficiency and 32nd in effective FG%. UConn is a big step up for them as well, as they are 19th in defensive efficiency and 5th in EFG%. Give me the UNDER 143! |
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11-23-21 | Mavs +5.5 v. Clippers | 112-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Mavs +5.5) I will take a shot here with the Mavs catching 5.5 on the road against the Clippers, as these two teams will face off in a rematch from Sunday in LA, which the Clippers won 97-91. LA only won that matchup by 6, despite them shooting 48% from the field and the Mavs only shooting 41%. Dallas also played that first game with their best player in Luka Doncic. While Doncic is listed as questionable, there figures to be a good chance he plays. He was close to coming back on Sunday and was seen taking part in scrimmages during Monday's practice. Even if the Mavs decide to sit him a 4th straight game, I still think Dallas is the play here. Mavs are 37-18-1 ATS last 56 on the road vs a team with a winning home record and 9-4 ATS last 13 off a SU loss. Clippers are just 3-7 ATS last 10 off a game where they covered the spread. Give me Dallas +5.5! |
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11-23-21 | Rice v. Oakland -1.5 | Top | 73-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
50* (CBB) Situational MAX UNIT Top Play (Oakland -1.5) I'm a little surprised that we are getting such a great number here with Oakland. Both of these teams won their first game in the Gulf Coast Showcase that's taking place in Estero, FL on Monday. Might seem like an even handicap in terms of rest, but that's not the case. While Oakland had a battle in a 63-61 win over a good Vermont team, the Owls played 15 extra minutes in a 109-104 3OT win against Evansville. Rice had 4 of their 5 starters log at least 40 minutes, with senior guard Carl Pierre logging 51 minutes. While 5 guys played off the bench for the Owls, three of the 5 logged fewer than 10 minutes, as Rice essentially used a 7-man rotation. I also think you got look at what these two teams have done early. Rice is 4-1, but all 4 wins have come against teams ranked outside of the Top 200 at KenPom. Oakland is just 3-2, but all 5 of their games have come against teams ranked in the Top 120, with 3 of the 5 coming vs teams in the Top 50 (W Virginia, Oklahoma St and Alabama). Give me the Grizzlies -1.5! |
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11-22-21 | Providence +2.5 v. Northwestern | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Providence +2.5) I think the wrong team is favored in this neutral site matchup between the Big Ten's Northwestern and the Big East's Providence. Both of these teams come into this game 4-0, but only one of these two teams has been tested. The Friars went on the road and beat a very good Wisconsin team 63-58. Northwestern on the other hand has just feasted on bad teams. All 4 of the Wildcats' wins have come against teams ranked outside the top 240 in KenPom's rankings and 3 of the 4 have come outside the Top 315! The Friars worst team they have faced is ranked 290. I think it's going top be tough for Northwestern to travel out to Newark, NJ and play well in a big step up game like this. I also think there's going to be a lot more Providence fans in attendance, which will make it feel more like a road game. It's a 2 hour flight for Evanston and less than a 4 hour drive from Providence. Give me the Friars +2.5! |
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11-22-21 | Hornets v. Wizards -3.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Wizards -3.5) I love the Wizards as a slim 3.5-point home favorite against the Hornets. Washington is going to come into this game feeling really good about themselves after they pulled out a 103-100 win at home over the Heat in a game they trailed by 16 in the 3rd quarter and by 10 with just 4:42 left to play. I also think any kind of letdown from that big come from behind win is negated by the fact that Washington had a day off on Sunday to recoup and there being no travel between games. It's a much different story for the Hornets, who just had their 5-game SU and ATS win streak snapped in a 105-115 loss at Atlanta on Saturday. While Charlotte also had Sunday off, they had to travel from Atlanta to Washington and will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. You also have to look at how well the Wizards have played at home. Washington is 7-1 SU and 7-1 ATS at Capital One Arena this season. Hornets are just 13-24 ATS last two seasons as a road dog, where they are losing by an average of 8.6 ppg. Give me the Wizards -3.5! |
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11-21-21 | Arizona v. Michigan UNDER 145 | 80-62 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) Late Night Total KNOCKOUT (UNDER 145) I think we are getting some great value with the UNDER at 145. These are two of the best defensive teams in the country according to KenPom. Arizona ranks 19th in defensive efficiency and are No.1 in the country in defending the 2-point shot. There will be no easy baskets for the Wolverines in this one and they aren't exactly a great 3-point shooting team. Michigan is shooting just 32.1% from deep and only average 6 made 3-pointers a game. We saw a good Seton Hall defense that ranks No. 1 in defensive efficiency and No. 25 in 2-point defense hold the Wolverines to just 65 points on 41.9% shooting in their big upset loss earlier this week. Arizona comes in averaging an impressive 91.0 ppg on 48% shooting, but a lot of that is because they played 3 cup cakes to start the year. They only had 69 points at the end of regulation against Wichita State and shot just 40.7% from the field and were 5 for 27 (18.5%) from deep. Give me the UNDER 145! |
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11-21-21 | Knicks v. Bulls -5 | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Bulls -5) I'll take my chances with Chicago cashing as 5-point home favorite against the Knicks. Bulls are in a bit of a tricky spot playing their first game back after a length west coast trip, but I don't see them having any problem getting up for this game. These two teams don't like each other and the Bulls certainly haven't forgot about a 103-104 loss to New York at home back on Oct. 28th. The good news is the Knicks come into this game not playing well and are in a tough scheduling spot of their own. New York is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 and 3-8 ATS over their last 11. They were trailing in the 2nd half of last night's game at home against the Rockets, a team that has no business even being within single digits. Look for Chicago to make a statement at the United Center tonight. Give me the Bulls -5! |
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11-20-21 | Pelicans v. Pacers -7 | 94-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Pacers -7) I'll take my chances here with Indiana laying it on the Pelicans and covering here as a 7-point home favorite. Both of these teams are going to be playing in the second game of a back-to-back and coming off very different results. New Orleans knocked off the Clippers 94-81 as a 4.5-point dog, while the Pacers lost 118-121 as a 1-point road favorite at Charlotte. In a game where fatigue figures to be a big factor, playing at home will be a huge edge for Indiana. You also got to look at how bad the Pelicans have been away from home. New Orleans is just 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS away from home, where they are losing on average by 12.9 ppg. I also think this is a big bounce back spot for the Pacers, who have lost 3 straight. Each of the last two losses have come as favorites. Indiana is 6-1 ATS last 3 seasons after losing back-to-back games as a favorite. Pelicans are 0-8 ATS last 8 on the road against teams who are allowing 108 or fewer points/game. Give me the Pacers -7! |
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11-20-21 | Richmond v. Drake -4 | 70-73 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 25 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR (Drake -4) I think we are getting a great price here with the Bulldogs as a slim 4-point home favorite against the Spiders. Drake is absolutely loaded this year. The Bulldogs return all 5 starters from last year's NCAA Tournament team. They have all the pieces in place to be even better this year. Richmond returns 4 starters, but I just haven't been impressed with what I've seen out of the Spiders early on. They beat a bad NC Central team by just 10 in their opener and lost outright 74-85 as a 6.5-point favorite to Utah State. Drake is simply the better offensive and defensive team in this matchup and just aren't getting enough respect at home. Give me the Bulldogs -4! |
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11-19-21 | Raptors v. Kings -3.5 | Top | 108-89 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Kings -3.5) I really like the price and the spot for the Kings, who are just 3.5-point home favorites against a struggling Raptors team. Sacramento is coming off a very disappointing 1-3 road trip against the Spurs, Thunder, Pistons and T-Wolves. Veteran big man Tristan Thompson voiced his frustration with the lack of intensity his team showed in this trip and I just think we are going to see an inspired effort from the Kings here at home. I know Sacramento is just 2-4 at home, but 3 of the 4 losses have come against 3 of the best teams in the West in the Warriors, Jazz and Suns and all 3 of those were by 8 or fewer. Toronto has not been playing well for a couple weeks now. The Raptors are 1-6 SU and 1-6 ATS over their last 7 games. They are shooting the ball poorly and not playing together on defense. They have allowed each of their last 3 opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and one of those teams was the Pistons. I just don't see them snapping out of this in what will be their 3rd road game on a west coast trip, especially in the 2nd of a back-to-back after a game last night in Utah. Give me the Kings -3.5! |
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11-19-21 | Oakland +16.5 v. Alabama | 59-86 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Oakland +16.5) I'll take a shot here with Oakland catching 16.5 points on the road against the Crimson Tide. I just think this is a classic case where you have a ranked Alabama team (No. 14) being overvalued against an unranked opponent. This is far from a pushover for the Crimson Tide. This Oakland team is legit. They have already played two teams ranked in the Top 50 of KenPom's rankings in West Virginia and Oklahoma State. They lost by just 7 as a 17.5-point dog on the road to the Mountaineers and beat Oklahoma State 56-55 as a 17-point dog on the road. They also covered their other game with ease, knocking off Toledo 80-59 as a mere 2-point favorite. I also think this could be a bit of a tricky spot for Alabama, as it's their last game before they get ready to go to Orlando for a Thanksgiving Tournament that will likely end up with a showdown against Kansas. Give me the Golden Grizzlies +16.5! |
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11-18-21 | Wyoming +1.5 v. Washington | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Wyoming +1.5) I'll take my chances with the Cowboys cashing as a slim 1.5-point road dog against the Huskies. Wyoming is talented team that I think is flying a bit under the radar to start the year. The Cowboys went just 14-11 last year in the first year under new head coach Jeff Linder, but this guy has a great track record. He had a 15-win jump from year one to year two in his last sting at Northern Colorado. What I think has them ready to take that next step is the emergence of 6'9 sophomore Graham Ike. He was limited to just 12 games last year and averaged just 11.2 ppg. He's put up 20+ in each of Wyoming's first two games this year. He gives them a potent 1-2 punch with senior point guard Hunter Maldonado, who many considered one of the top returning players in the MWC. The other big thing for me, is I think Washington isn't very good. The Huskies have started 2-1, but lost outright in their opener to Northern Illinois 64-71 and that's a Huskies team that is ranked outside the top 310 in the country at KenPom. They only beat Northern Arizona 73-62 and Texas Southern 72-65. Both of those teams are outside the Top 220 with Northern Arizona ranked even lower than Northern Illinois. Give me Wyoming +1.5! |
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11-18-21 | Clippers v. Grizzlies +1.5 | Top | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Vegas Insider MAX UNIT Top Play (Grizzlies +1.5) I really like Memphis as a small home dog against the Clippers tonight. Memphis has finally gotten healthy with the return of Dillon Brooks. He's that second scoring option this team has been lacking behind Morant. In the 3 games (2 starts) Brooks has made, he's averaged 19.7 ppg. With the Grizzlies coming into this game on a full two days of rest with no travel between games, I really like them to play well. On the flip side of this, I think this is a great sell high spot with Los Angeles. The Clippers come into this game having gone 8-1 SU and 6-2 ATS over their last 8 games. Thing is, LA has played their last 6 at home and the only two on the road during this stretch were against a bad Timberwolves team. Lot of people forget the Clippers were just 1-4 SU prior to this recent run. Give me the Grizzlies +1.5! |
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11-18-21 | Marquette v. Ole Miss -3.5 | 78-72 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Ole Miss -3.5) I will gladly take my chances with Ole Miss as a slim 3.5-point favorite against Marquette. This game will be played on a neutral site at TD Arena in Charleston, South Carolina. I really like what Kermit Davis is doing in Oxford and I think he's got a very underrated team coming into the year. This is a team that a lot of people have closer to the bottom than the top in the SEC in their predicted standings and I think they got the goods to compete. On the flip side of this, I think Marquette is getting way too much respect from their last game, where they upset No. 10 ranked Illinois 67-66 as a 8-point dog. Keep in mind that's an Illini team that hasn't exactly looked great early and were without one of the best players in the country in Kofi Cockburn. That game was also played on Monday, so just a two day turnaround sets up a possible letdown. Ole Miss on the other hand has been off since whooping Charleston last Friday. Give me the Rebels -3.5! |
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11-18-21 | Ohio State -2 v. Xavier | 65-71 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Smart Money ATS MASSACRE (Ohio St -2) I will gladly take a shot here with Ohio State as a slim 2-point road favorite against the Musketeers. I think we are getting a great price with the Buckeyes do their lackluster ATS start. Ohio State barely beat Akron 67-66 as a 16.5-pt favorite and then only beat Niagara 84-74 as a 20-pt favorite. They did bounce back in a big way in their next game, beating Bowling Green 89-58 as a mere 16-pt favorite. I just think because the game is being played at Xavier and the Musketeers are 2-0 to start the year, we are getting a great price with the Buckeyes in this matchup. Very similar to last night, when Michigan State was laying such a short number against Butler and wound up winning 73-52. Other big thing with the Musketeers is they are still without big man Zach Freemantle, who was one of the top big men in the Big East last year, averaging 16.1 ppg and 8.9 rpg on 51% shooting. I think they are going to really miss him against a big, strong and athletic front of Ohio State, especially with how Xavier has struggled from deep (shooting 25% from behind the 3-pt line). Give me the Buckeyes -2! |
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11-17-21 | St. John's v. Indiana -4.5 | 74-76 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Indiana -4.5) I just think this is too good a price to pass up with the Hoosiers at home. Not to take anything away from St. John's, who figures to finish in the top half of the Big East this year, but I think there's a pretty big gap in the Big East after the top teams of Villanova and UConn. So while Indiana is picked by many to finish middle of the pack in the Big Ten, I think they are clearly the better team and there's not enough being factor into this line for how tough it is to win at Assembly Hall. I think the atmosphere could really prove to be a problem for a St. John's team that endured a lot of turnover from last year. Give me the Hoosiers -4.5! |
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11-17-21 | Detroit v. Mississippi State -15.5 | Top | 64-77 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
50* (CBB) - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH (Mississippi St -15.5) I love Mississippi State as a mere 15.5-point home favorite. I really like what Ben Howland is doing in Starkville and I've been impressed with how good the Bulldogs have looked to start the year. This is a team that added in some big time talent to already talented roster in the transfer portal. They brought in Rocket Watts from Michigan State, D.J. Jeffries from Memphis, Garrison Brooks from North Carolina and Shakeel Moore from NC State. They are scoring 80.5 ppg on 50.4% shooting from the field and 46% from behind the 3-point line. They absolutely destroyed North Alabama and Montana in their first two games and have another cupcake here in Detroit, who is giving up 83 ppg on 52% shooting and that's against the likes of Wyoming and Toledo. Give me the Bulldogs -15.5! |
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11-17-21 | Celtics v. Hawks -4 | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Blockbuster ATS NO-BRAINER (Hawks -4) I will gladly take my chances with the Hawks as a mere 4-point home favorite against the Celtics. Atlanta has really been a Jekyll and Hyde team this year when it comes to where they are playing. The Hawks are 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS on the road compared to 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS at home. Their only home loss came against the Jazz in the 2nd of a back-to-back after they played at Brooklyn against the Nets the night before. Boston has been hit or miss all year and are just not a team I can trust on the road against a quality team without one of their best players in Jaylen Brown. They also could be without talented big man Robert Williams, who is questionable to play after leaving their last game with a knee injury. Give me the Hawks -4! |
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11-17-21 | Wizards v. Hornets | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Situational ATS MASSACRE (Hornets PK) I will gladly take a shot with the Hornets as a pick'em at home against the Wizards. I just feel like now is the time to sell high on Washington. The Wizards have shocked everyone by jumping out to the best record in the Eastern Conference at 10-3 and with all the big media outlets starting to talk about them, I think we are seeing the books finally make an adjustment on them. Now I'm not saying the Wizards aren't greatly improved and a playoff contender in the East, but there is reason to be pessimistic with their strong start. While they do have some decent wins over the likes of the Bucks, Celtics, Hawks and Raptors, their only win against a team who currently has a winning record is a 3-point win at Cleveland, a game they had no business winning. Hornets come in having won and covered 3 straight and have been a much stronger team at home than on the road. Charlotte is definitely going to be up for this one and I think they could win this going away. Give me the Hornets PK! |
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11-17-21 | Pacers -6.5 v. Pistons | 89-97 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money ATS ANNIHILATOR (Pacers -6.5) This definitely falls into the category of a so-called "square play," but I don't care. This Pistons team is awful. Detroit is just 3-10 SU and have gone 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS in their 4 division games this year. In those 4 games they have been outscored by almost 20 ppg, losing on average by a final score of 84.2 to 101.5. Making matters even worse for Detroit is they just recently lost one of their best players in Kelly Olynyk. Not that he's great, but he's the only player with a PER (individual player rating) better than 16 at 19.06. I also love the spot for the Pacers, who you have to think are itching to get back on the floor after what took place in Monday's 84-92 loss at the Knicks. Indiana got outscored 23-10 in the 4th quarter of that game. They shockingly only made 2 FGs in the 4th quarter. Prior to that poor showing the Pacers had covered 6 of their previous 7 games. Give me Indiana -6.5! |
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11-17-21 | Michigan State -2.5 v. Butler | 73-52 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Michigan St -2.5) I just think the books have made a big mistake here with making the Spartans a mere 2.5-point road favorite against the Bulldogs. Butler has fallen off quite a bit since LaVall Jordan took over. They haven't made the NCAA Tournament in 3 years and even with 5 starters back, they have the looks of the middle of the pack team in the Big East this year. Butler has started out 3-0, which I think is definitely playing into the number being lower than it should be. Thing is, the 3-0 start is nothing to write home about. They have beat IUPUI, Central Arkansas and Troy. All 3 of those rank outside the Top 200 teams in KenPom's ranking with two of those outside the Top 325. Michigan State is a big step up in competition and the Bulldogs just don't have the coaching or talent to win this game. Give me the Spartans -2.5! |
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11-16-21 | Seton Hall +8.5 v. Michigan | 67-65 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR (Seton Hall +8.5) This is just too good a price to pass up with the Pirates as a 8.5-point road dog against No. 4 ranked Michigan. The Wolverines are a good team, but them being ranked in the Top 5 and Seton Hall not being ranked in the Top 25 has this line inflated. Pirates did lose some big pieces from last year, but they have looked outstanding in their first two games. They won 93-49 over Farleigh Dickinson as a 27-point favorite and 80-44 as a 11.5 point home dog to Yale. They are getting scoring from just about every player who steps on the floor. We saw Michigan struggle with a good Buffalo team at home in their opener and I think we could potentially see the Wolverines go down in this one. Give me Seton Hall +8.5! |
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11-16-21 | St. Louis +10.5 v. Memphis | 74-90 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (St Louis +10.5) This is just too many points to pass up with St Louis, as they are catching double-digits on the road against No. 11 Memphis. The Tigers are a big public team and are simply being overvalued here. The Billikens are off to a strong 3-0 start and are a team that I think can not only contend in the A-10 but has a legit shot at making the NCAA Tournament. In their two lined games they have covered with ease, beating Central Arkansas 96-61 as a 22 point favorite and Eastern Illinois 86-44 as a 21-point favorite. With how they play defense, it's not out of the question they could win this game outright. Give me the Billikens +10.5! |
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11-16-21 | Warriors v. Nets OVER 221.5 | Top | 117-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 221.5) I love the OVER 221.5 in tonight's big NBA game between the Nets and Warriors. I know the UNDERS have been cashing left and right to start the 2021-22 season, but I actually think it's playing into our favor with this number. These are two exceptional offensive teams. The Nets had their struggles early on offense, but that has changed here of late and a big reason for that is James Harden is finally starting to play up to his potential. As for the Warriors, they have been a force offensively, averaging 115.1 ppg. I think both teams could get into the 120's, but we really just need something like a 115-110 final to cash this easy. Give me the OVER 221.5! |
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11-16-21 | Miami-FL -7 v. Florida Atlantic | 68-66 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Miami -7) I think we are getting a great price here with the Hurricanes as a 7-point favorite at FAU. Good buy low spot on Miami after losing outright 89-95 as a 3-point favorite at home to UCF. That's a much improved UCF team that returned all 5 starters and the Knights couldn't miss in that game. FAU put up 92 points in their opener and lost. That tells you a lot about this team. They like to play fast, but also don't play any defense. They gave up 99 points on 53% shooting to a rebuilding New Mexico team. Unless FAU shoots lights out, the Hurricanes should win this game by double-digits easy. Give me Miami -7! |
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11-15-21 | Suns -3.5 v. Wolves | 99-96 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Suns -3.5) I'll lay the 3.5 with the Suns on the road against the Timberwolves. Phoenix is one of the hottest teams in the league right now. Suns have won 8 in a row and covered each of their last 7. Each of their last 3 wins have come by double-digits. Minnesota is the exact opposite. Timberwolves are just 1-7 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games. Of the 7 losses during this stretch, 5 have come by double-digits. The big knock on the Suns in this game, is the fact that they will be playing the second game of a back-to-back on the road after yesterday's 115-89 win at Houston. With that being such an easy win and guys didn't have to play big minutes, I don't think it takes from their performance tonight. This is also far from an ideal spot for the Timberwolves, who could be dealing with some jet lag after playing 4 straight on the road, with the last 3 of those being played in California (Warriors, Lakers, Clippers). They got yesterday off, but will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the Suns -3.5! |
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11-15-21 | Buffalo v. North Texas | 69-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Buffalo PK) I think we are getting some big time value here with the Bulls as a pick'em against the Mean Green. I really like this Buffalo team this year. The Bulls got multiple guys who can score the ball and we saw that in full display in their 76-88 loss in a cover at Michigan to open the season. North Texas was a great story last year, winning 4 games in 4 days to win the C-USA tournament to make the NCAA Tournament, where they went on to upset Purdue in OT. This is just not the same team for the Mean Green, who lost their best player in Javion Hamlet (15.7 ppg), as well as two other double-figure scorers in James Reese (10.9 ppg) and Zachary Simmons (10.0 ppg). Give me the Bulls PK! |
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11-14-21 | Nets v. Thunder +9.5 | 120-96 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Thunder +9.5) I'll gladly take my chances with OKC as a near double-digit home dog against the Nets. Brooklyn is a huge public team and are being asked to way a few too many in this spot. The Nets are playing the final game of a 6-game road trip that has seen them go up and down the east coast. I think they will have a hard time getting up for this game, as they have to be counting down the hours until they get to get on that plane back home. Even more so with a massive home game looming Tuesday against the Warriors. The other big thing here is the Thunder are playing their best basketball of the season coming into this game. OKC has won 4 straight. They have also covered each of their last 5 games and are 7-1 ATS in their last 8. They are playing exceptional defense during this stretch as they have held each of their last 6 opponents under 42% shooting from the field. Give me OKC +9.5! |
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11-14-21 | South Dakota v. Drake -16 | 50-99 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Drake -16) I'll lay the big number here with Drake at home against South Dakota. The Bulldogs won their season opener over Coe College 87-61. They shot 53% from the field and connected on 12 of 23 (52%) from behind the 3-point line. This Drake team is one of the best the MVC has to offer this year, as they returned all 5 starters from a team that received an at-large bid to last year's NCAA Tournament. South Dakota brings back 3 starters, but they lost their two best players from last year's team in Stanley Umude (21.6 ppg) and A.J. Plitzuweit (19.0 ppg). Umude transferred and Plitzuweit suffered a bad injury last February that will have him sidelined for this season as well. No other player averaged in double-figures last year for the Coyotes. South Dakota won their opener over Air Force 59-53, but failed to cover as 7-point favorites. That's a Falcons team that is picked by many to finish near the basement of the Mountain West. They shot just 36.2% from the field in that win. This has blowout written all over it. Give me Drake -16! |
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11-13-21 | Texas +7.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 74-86 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
50* (CBB) - Late Night MAX UNIT Top Play (Texas +7.5) I've had this game circled for a while now. No way should this Texas team being catching this big of a number against any team in the country. Gonzaga is just way overpriced after what they did last year and coming into this season as the consensus top team. I get they brought in some great guys and have some good players back, but losing a player like Suggs and asking this team to be as good as they were last year, is asking a lot. As for the Longhorns, they made an absolute great hire with Chris Beard and few teams worked the transfer portal better than the Longhorns. I not only think Texas covers the big number, I like them to win outright. Give me the Longhorns +7.5! |
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11-13-21 | Davidson v. San Francisco -6.5 | 60-65 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Sharp Money ATS MASSACRE (San Francisco -6.5) I will gladly take my chances here with the Dons as a 6.5-point home favorite against Davidson. These are two teams I got very different views on coming into the 2021-22 season. I really like this San Francisco team, which returns 4 starters from a talented team that just could never get the chemistry right last year. They probably don't have enough to dethrone Gonzaga in the WCC, but I think they could surprise and finish much higher than the middle of the pack, where most have them pegged. As for Davidson, I'm way down on the Wildcats this year and it's all centered around the loss of their best player in Kellan Grady. He was their top scorer last year at 17.1 ppg. He left in the transfer portal to go play at Kentucky. Replacing him will be a tall task and I just don't see the Wildcats having a good showing on the other side of the country in their first road game of the season. Give me San Francisco -6.5! |
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11-13-21 | Celtics v. Cavs +2.5 | 89-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) Public Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Cavs +2.5) I'll take my chances with the Cavs as a home dog against the Celtics on Saturday. Boston has been playing better of late, going 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games, but this is a really tough spot for the Celtics. Boston just put everything they had into last night's 122-113 OT win over the Bucks in a prime time game on ESPN. They had 4 different guys log over 40 minutes with all 5 starters playing 30+ minutes. I think it will be tough here for them to bounce back on no rest (also 3rd game in 4 days) in the first of two straight games in Cleveland against the Cavs (two play again in Cleveland on Monday). Cavs have been one of the biggest money makers early on. They are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games after destroying the Pistons 98-78 as a mere 5-point home favorite on Friday. Books just haven't made the proper adjustments on this team and until they do, they are going to be a team to keep backing. Give me the Cavs +2.5! |
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11-13-21 | Georgia v. Cincinnati -9.5 | 68-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Cincinnati -9.5) A lot of people are wanting to grab the near double-digits with Georgia and I just don't get it. The Bulldogs lost 4 of 5 starters from last year's team and figure to be at or near the bottom of the SEC standings when it's all said and done. I thought they made a good hire in Wes Miller to be their new head coach and they got a lot come back from a team that didn't live up to their potential last year. Cincinnati has a great backcourt and depth. They are also a really good defensive team. They beat Evansville 65-43 as a mere 11.5-point favorite in their opener. The Bearcats held the Purple Aces to just 25.9% shooting, forced them into 15 turnovers and were +7 on the boards. Cincinnati's Williams Arena is also very tough place to play for opposing teams. I'm not buying the Bulldogs can make a game of this. Give me the Bearcats -9.5! |
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11-12-21 | Bulls v. Warriors -5.5 | 93-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT (Warriors -5.5) I really like this Bulls team and have made a bunch of money backing them early on this season. With that said, I hate this spot for Chicago. The Bulls will be making their first trip out west to face the hottest team in the league in the Warriors, who are 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS. Warriors could be without Draymond Green, who is questionable with a thigh bruise (think there's a decent chance he plays), but the Bulls will be without their big man in Nikola Vucevic due to Covid. I just don't think Chicago is going to be able to do enough offensively against a very good Golden State defense to keep this close enough to cover. Books just haven't adjusted enough on this Warriors team. Give me Golden State -5.5! |
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11-12-21 | Mavs v. Spurs +2.5 | 123-109 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Spurs +2.5) This Spurs team burned me in their last game with arguably their best showing of the season in a blowout win over the Kings. I think I might have been a little too low on this San Antonio team. I'll gladly take a shot here with the Spurs as a short home dog against an overrated Mavs team. Dallas has gotten way too much respect from the books to start the season and are just 3-7 ATS as a result. The other big thing here for me, is these two teams have already played twice and both times the Mavs were able to squeak out a win. Dallas won 104-99 at home and then 109-108 on the road. Spurs are going to want this game bad and I think they get the job done. Give me San Antonio +2.5! |
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11-12-21 | Kings -4 v. Thunder | Top | 103-105 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Kings -4) We took the Kings as a slim 1-point dog at the Spurs on Wednesday and got absolutely burned with San Antonio cruising to a 136-117 win. Not only did Sacramento not play with the effort needed to win on the road, the Spurs shot lights out in that game. Watching that game, I had a pretty good feeling I was going to be right back on the Kings against the Thunder tonight and I was actually expecting to lay a couple more than we are being asked to. This is a Kings team I have made some decent money on early and I fully expect them to bounce back with a big effort and easy cover tonight. Give me Sacramento -4! |
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11-12-21 | UMKC v. Iowa -19.5 | 57-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Iowa -19.5) I was mad at myself for not taking the Hawkeyes -20 against Longwood in their opener. Iowa went on to win and cover that game easy 106-73. Most of the starters barely had to play in the 2nd half they were so dominant early (led 56-29 at the half). I just think the Hawkeyes are way undervalued coming into this season, as everyone is down on them after not just losing the National Player of the Year in Garza, but also their second best player in Wieskamp. Both of which were taken in the NBA draft. Thing is, this is a deep and talented Iowa team that has more than enough talent to compete for a top spot in the Big 10. They have an emerging star in Keegan Murray and a veteran presence and outstanding 3-point shooter in Jordan Bohannon. They are also a much better defensive team and able to get out faster in transition without Garza. They take on a Kansas City team that just lost by 15 on the road to an awful Minnesota team that lost all 5 starters and are in the first year of a new head coach. It would take a really bad game for the Hawkeyes to not win this game by 20+ points. Give me Iowa -19.5! |
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11-12-21 | Western Kentucky -2.5 v. Minnesota | 69-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (W Kentucky -2.5) I'm way down on this Gophers team and I'm not giving this Minnesota team any respect for covering a mere 6.5-point line at home against Kansas City. The same Kansas City team that is a 20-point dog to Iowa tonight. That result combined with the fact that WKU only beat Alabama State 79-74 as a 25.5-point favorite will have a lot of people left scratching their head at how the Hilltoppers can be favored here on a neutral site. Looking back I probably should have been on Alabama State in that game vs WKU. The Hornets had 4 of 5 starters back and are an extremely long and athletic team. Either way, it should serve as a great tuneup for WKU for this game and it also should have them 100% locked in after not playing up to their potential. Minnesota is all but a lock to be the worst team in the Big Ten this year. They didn't bring back a single starter from last year, are in the first year of a new head coach. Give me the Hilltoppers -2.5! |
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11-11-21 | Raptors +3 v. 76ers | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Raptors +3) I think we are getting a good price here on the Raptors as a slim road dog against a depleted 76ers team. The value with Toronto stems from the fact that they will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back, while Philly had yesterday off. Raptors also haven't looked good of late, losing their last 3 games, including an ugly 88-104 setback at Boston last night. As tough as it is to play on no rest, I see this as a much worse spot for the 76ers, who we know are going to be without Joel Embiid and Matisse Thybulle. They could also be missing Tobias Harris and Seth Curry. Not to mention they still are playing without Ben Simmons. Siakam will be out for Toronto to rest after just recently coming back from injury. I think that's not necessarily a bad thing. Siakam is still shaking off some rust and it felt like his return kind of threw off the chemistry this team had going, as they had gone 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their previous 5 before the 3-game skid. Give me the Raptors +3! |
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11-11-21 | Sacred Heart +15.5 v. Providence | 64-92 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 11 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Sacred Heart +15.5) I will gladly take 15.5 with the Pioneers as they go on the road to face Providence. Both of these teams opened their season with a win on Tuesday, but only one of them covered. That was Sacred Heart, who went on the road and beat LaSalle 86-81 as a 7.5-point dog. The Friars failed to cover as 15-point favorites in a 80-73 victory against Fairfield. While I didn't play it, I wasn't surprised to see the Pioneers cash a winning ticket. They got back all 5 starters from last year. It's rare for Sacred Heart to not lose some guys to the transfer portal, as they have watched a lot of their top guys leave in previous offseasons. With that much experience back and a coach that always seems to get his team to exceed expectations, it's not out of the question they could make a run for the Northeast title. Note that the Fairfield team that just covered against Providence also had 5 starters back from last year and they are picked to finish middle of the pack in the MAAC. As for the Friars, they get back 4 starters, but they lost the engine that made their offense work in David Duke, who averaged 16.8 ppg and 4.8 apg. He was also their biggest 3-point threat. They also lost two other key rotation players in Greg Gantt and Jimmy Nichols. I just think this is a few too many. Give me Sacred Heart +15.5! |
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11-11-21 | Vermont v. Northern Iowa -1.5 | Top | 71-57 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
50* (CBB) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNI -1.5) I love Northern Iowa at basically a pick'em at home against Vermont. Most will look to fade the Panthers after watching them just lost outright 58-62 as a 14.5-point home favorite to Nicholls State, but UNI couldn't have shot it any worse in their opener. The Panthers were a dreadful 15 of 50 (30%) from the field, going just 3 of 23 (13%) fromb ehind the 3-point line. I'm confident they will have a much better time shooting the ball, as this is a team that's talented enough to win the MVC this year. UNIT gets back all 5 starters, including their star guard AJ Green, who averaged 22.3 ppg before his season was ended just 3 games into last year. Vermont is one of the top teams in the America East and get back 4 starters, but this is a big step up in competition for the Catamounts and they did lose one of their top players to the transfer portal in Stef Smith. I also think there's an edge for UNI having already played a game, while Vermont is playing their first game. Give me the Panthers -1.5! |
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11-10-21 | Kings +1 v. Spurs | 117-136 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Kings +1) Sacramento should not be a dog in this game. The Kings have one of the more misleading records right now. They are just 5-6, but this is more a result of the brutal schedule they were dealt to start the year. I actually think Sacramento is one of the more improved teams. The same can't be said for the Spurs. San Antonio is just 3-7 and there's nothing fluky about their record. The Spurs just aren't a very good team. Two of their three wins have come against arguably the worst team in the league in the Magic and the other was against a depleted Bucks team on the road. Prior to last night's win against a depleted 76ers team, Milwaukee had lost 5 of 6. Give me the Kings +1! |
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11-10-21 | Hornets v. Grizzlies OVER 227 | 118-108 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 227) I just can't help myself but to take the OVER 227 in tonight's NBA matchup between the Grizzlies and Hornets. While these two teams don't exactly fly up and down the court, we have two of the top offenses facing off against two of the worst defenses. Charlotte is 8th in offensive efficiency and Memphis isn't too far back at 12th. On the flip side, the Hornets are 29th (just barely ahead of the Pelicans) in defensive efficiency and Memphis is 28th. I just think with how bad these two teams are defensively it's going to lead to a little faster pace, as both offenses won't have to work hard to get an open look. As long as don't have one of these teams go ice cold, this should easily get into the 230s. Give me the OVER 227! |
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11-10-21 | Mavs v. Bulls -3.5 | 107-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Bulls -3.5) I will gladly take my chances with Chicago as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against the Mavs. I just think this is a really good price to back the Bulls at home. Chicago put those two losses to the 76ers behind them with a 118-95 win over the Nets on Monday. They did so in fashion, outscoring Brooklyn 42-17 in the 4th quarter. The Bulls are now 7-3 SU and 7-3 ATS. This is without question one of the most improved teams in the league and while the betting public is starting to take notice, I think the books have been a little slow to inflate the numbers on them, which is why they continue to show value. As for the Mavs, I just haven't been all that impressed. They too are off to a 7-3 SU start, but are just 3-6-1 ATS. Their largest margin of victory all season is just 10 points and that was against the Rockets at home. I really like Lonzo Ball being able to make it difficult for Doncic and if Luka is great, I have a hard time seeing Dallas keeping this close. Give me the Bulls -3.5! |
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11-10-21 | Lehigh v. Rutgers -19.5 | Top | 70-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
50* (CBB) - Opening Week PLAY OF THE MONTH (Rutgers -19.5) I'm shocked the Scarlet Knights are only a 19.5-point favorite at home against the likes of Lehigh. I think it's a bit ridiculous that not only is Rutgers not in the Top 25 in the AP or coaches poll, they aren't even one of the 10+ teams that are getting votes. This has the looks of Steve Pikiell's best team yet and I think the lack of respect the Scarlet Knights are getting will have them extremely motivated to make a statement in their opener. Things could look a lot different for Rutgers if Geo Baker and Ron Harper Jr. had decided to leave early for the NBA, but both opted to return after testing the waters. They will be up against a Lehigh team that went just 4-10 last year playing a conference only slate in the Patriot League. So while they get back 4 starters, that doesn't mean a whole lot when matched up against a Power 5 program like Rutgers. Give me the Scarlet Knights -19.5! |
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11-09-21 | Northern Arizona v. Arizona -25 | 52-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT (Arizona -25) I got no problem laying the big number with Arizona at home against Northern Arizona. I thought the Wildcats made an outstanding hire by bringing in Gonzaga assistant Tommy Lloyd. I know there's some sanctions that they will have to overcome, but there's more than enough talent on hand, as the Wildcats bring back 4 of 5 starters. Last year, Arizona annihilated the Lumberjacks 96-53. This year's Northern Arizona team looks to be down a notch, as their top two players, Cameron Shelton and Luke Avdalovic both left via the transfer portal. Shelton averaged 19.2 ppg and Avdalovic averaged 10.8 (one of their top 3-pt shooters). Those two had 31 of the 53 points scored against Arizona last year. Give me the Wildcats -25! |
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11-09-21 | Blazers v. Clippers -3 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Clippers -3) I will lay the 3-points at home with the Clippers, as they host the Blazers in the second game of Tuesday's TNT double-header. I just don't get why this Portland team is getting so much respect on the road. The Blazers are 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS away from home this season and are getting outscored on average 115.2 to 101.5 on the road. The Clippers got off to an ugly start, but seem to have figured it out. LA has won 4 straight to move to 5-4 (first time this year over .500). While we know this team will take it to another level once Kawhi comes back from injury, they are the more than good enough to cover this short number at home against a Blazers team that is not getting the production they need out of their star player in Damian Lillard. After ranking 3rd in the league last year at 28.8 ppg, Lillard is 35th at a mere 18.5 ppg. Give me the Clippers -3! |
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11-09-21 | Cal-Irvine v. New Mexico State -4.5 | 51-62 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Opening Night VEGAS INSIDER (New Mexico St -4.5) I will take my chances with the Aggies making a statement in the first game of the 2021-22 season. Last year was completely out of the norm for New Mexico State, as they failed to win either the WAC regular-season or conference tournament title since 2011. Even with the down year, head coach Chris Jans still has a 95-25 record in 4 years with the program. Jans knew he needed to improve the talent on this team to get them back where they are accustomed and he did just that. New Mexico State brought in a plethora of talented transfers from both the JUCO level and Power 5 programs. I just don't think people realize how talented this team is and we are getting a great price to back them at home. Give me the Aggies -4.5! |
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11-09-21 | Kansas v. Michigan State +4.5 | Top | 87-74 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
50* (CBB) - Kansas/Mich St CHAMPIONS CLASSIC Winner (Michigan St +4.5) I will gladly take my chances with Tom Izzo and the Spartans as a decently priced dog against the Jayhawks in the first of Tuesday's Champions Classic double-header at Madison Square Garden. Last year was not the norm for Michigan State. While they did enough to make the NCAA Tournament for a 23rd straight time, they were just 15-13 overall and at 9-11 they had their first losing season in Big Ten play since the 1992-93 season. I really like the talent that Izzo has coming back, but what I really love is the addition of Northeastern transfer Tyson Walker, who gives them the true point guard they lacked last year after having such a stable at the position for years with Cassius Winston. Give me the Spartans +4.5! |
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11-08-21 | Hawks +3.5 v. Warriors | 113-127 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Big Money Fade UPSET SHOCKER (Hawks +3.5) A lot of people are going to look at this line and wonder how are the Warriors such a small home favorite against a Hawks team that has lost 5 of 6 and failed to cover 6 of their last 7. The books just don't set bad lines on purpose and with how much the public is getting back involved with the Warriors after their 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS start, I got roll the dice with Atlanta in this one. One thing that is worth pointing out with the Warriors 8-1 start, is they haven't exactly played the toughest schedule. While they got wins over the Lakers and Clippers, both were by 7 or fewer and neither of those teams have looked good early. Their other 6 wins are against the Kings, Thunder (twice), Hornets, Pelicans and Rockets. This is also not a great scheduling spot for Golden State with them playing the second of a back-to-back and 3rd in 4 nights. I could definitely see the Hawks being the more motivated team, as we should get a max effort here from Atlanta. Give me the Hawks +3.5! |
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11-08-21 | Nets v. Bulls -1 | Top | 95-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Bulls -1) I really like the Bulls as a slim 1-point home favorite against the Nets. Brooklyn is a massive public team with Durant and Harden, but while they are 7-3 SU they are just 5-5 ATS. They come in having won 5 straight, but those wins have come against the Pacers, Pistons (twice), Hawks and Raptors with 3 of the 5 at home. The other big thing here is rest. Brooklyn will be on no rest after yesterday's game at Toronto. While Brooklyn won the game relatively comfortably 116-103, they weren't able to spread out the minutes like you would like in the first of a back-to-back. They have 4 of their 5 starters log 32+ minutes. This is also the Nets 3rd road game in 4 nights. Bulls are on just 1 day of rest, but this will be just their second game in the last 5 days and they have had zero travel during this time. Chicago should come out here extremely motivated, not just to make a statement against one of the better teams, but to snap their 2-game skid (coming off two close losses in a home-and-home vs the 76ers). Give me the Bulls -1! |
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11-07-21 | Pacers v. Kings -1.5 | 94-91 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Kings -1.5) I will gladly take my chances here with Sacramento as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against the Pacers. I've really been impressed with this Kings team to start the season. Sacramento is 5-4, but their 4 losses have come against playoff caliber teams. The books have been slow to adjust on the Kings and those backing them have made a killing of late. Sacramento has covered 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall. This just doesn't feel like the sell high spot with this line. Indiana is another team I like, but this is not an ideal spot for the Pacers playing the 2nd game of a 4-game west coast trip. Indiana's defense just isn't good enough to win away from home against quality teams, as they are giving up 118.2 ppg on 47% shooting from the field and 42% shooting from deep away from home. Give me the Kings -1.5! |
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11-06-21 | Jazz +2.5 v. Heat | 115-118 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Jazz +2.5) I really like the Jazz here in this spot. Miami has been one of the most impressive teams in the league and have quickly becoming a public betting favorite. The biggest thing here is the health of Miami point guard Kyle Lowry. The Heat are 6-2 and both losses have come with Lowry not playing the entire game. Lowry missed Miami's 91-102 loss at Indiana and he went out in the 3rd quarter of Thursday's 78-95 loss to the Celtics. The Heat just really struggle to get into any flow offensively without him on the floor. I know Utah might be without one of their best players as well, as Donovan Mitchell is questionable after missing Thursday's 116-98 win over the Hawks. The thing is, I think there's a much better chance that Mitchell plays, as it felt more precautionary than anything with Lowry not playing against Atlanta. Keep in mind, unlike Lowry, Mitchell came back and finished the game against the Kings after injuring his ankle in the 1st half. Even if he doesn't play, I still think Utah is the right side against a Heat without Lowry. Play the Jazz +2.5! |
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11-05-21 | Hornets v. Kings -1.5 | Top | 110-140 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Kings -1.5) I love the Kings as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against the Hornets on Friday. I think this Sacramento team is flying way under the radar right now. Kings are just 4-4, but those 4 losses have come against the Warriors and Jazz at home and the Mavs and Jazz on the road. They have covered 4 of their last 5 including a 112-99 win over New Orleans last time out as a mere 5-point favorite. Charlotte is a team that gets a lot of love because they can score a lot of points, but I'm not a big believer in this team and I certainly don't like the spot for the Hornets. Charlotte just started a 5-game road trip across the country on Wednesday at Golden State and after this game they go to LA for back-to-back games at the Staples Center vs the Clippers and Lakers on Sunday/Monday. Charlotte also comes in not shooting the ball well. They have shot 41% or worse from the field in 3 of their last 4 games. Give me the Kings -1.5! |
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11-05-21 | Cavs +5.5 v. Raptors | 102-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Cavs +5.5) I'll take my chances with Cleveland as a 5.5-point road dog against the Raptors. Even though the Cavs have been one of the biggest surprises early, going 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS, it's going to take a lot more before the betting public gets on board with this team, so to me they are still a great buy low candidate. As for the Raptors, I think this is a good sell high spot on them. Toronto is a team a lot of people were high on coming into the season and they look like they are living up to that hype going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5. I still have a lot of concerns with this team and this is not a great spot coming off a 3-game road trip and a massive lookahead with a home game against the Nets on deck Sunday. I not only think the Cavs can keep it within the number, but I give them a good shot here to win outright. Give me Cleveland +5.5! |
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11-04-21 | Jazz -1.5 v. Hawks | Top | 116-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Jazz -1.5) I will gladly lay a mere 1.5-points on the road with Utah against an underwhelming Hawks team. Atlanta got off to a decent start, going 3-1 in their first 4 games, but two of those wins were against the Pistons and Hornets. The other was against a Mavs team that has also not looked good early on. Since that start they have lost 3 of 4, including a 108-117 setback last night at Brooklyn. I just think even with the slow start, Atlanta is a team that is still being a bit overvalued based on last year's deep playoff run that saw them get to the Eastern Conference Finals. On the flip side, I've liked what I've seen out of Utah to start the season. I did play against them as a 9-point favorite at home against the Kings last time out, but that was more of how underrated I think Sacramento is right now. I just don't think 1.5 is near enough for Atlanta. Utah's only loss on the season is a 99-107 loss at Chicago, which was a bit of a flat spot, being it was the first of a back-to-back with the defending champs on deck. Give me the Jazz -1.5! |
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11-04-21 | 76ers v. Pistons +6 | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) Public Money ATS MASACRE (Pistons +6) A lot of people are going to look at this line and wonder how in the heck are the 76ers only a 6-point favorite against a Pistons team that is 1-6 and struggling to keep games close. They just lost 91-117 at Brooklyn and 89-117 at home to the Bucks in their last two games. We see a lot of crazy things in the NBA this early in the season and more times than not when a line stinks this bad, I'm going to side with the books and take the ugly dog. There is reason to like the Pistons. Philly is far from full strength right now. They are still waiting on Ben Simmons to figure things out and are also without two other starters in Tobias Harris and Danny Green. 76ers are also playing on the road with no rest after really playing hard in last nights big win over the Bulls. I think we see Philly lay a big egg here and it wouldn't shock me if Detroit won outright. Give me the Pistons +6! |
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11-03-21 | Pelicans v. Kings -5 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT (Kings -5) I got no problem laying a mere 5-points at home with the Kings. We cashed on Sacramento as a 9-point dog in a 113-119 loss at Utah last night. I said it in my write up for that game that I thought this Kings team was way undervalued because of their schedule. Kings have played 5 of their first 7 on the road, with their only two at home coming against the Jazz and Grizzlies. Got to believe they will be motivated here for that first home win of the season. This is also an interesting scheduling spot. Both teams are playing on no rest (Pelicans played at Phoenix last night). New Orleans has lost both of their previous games on no rest. In one they scored just 89 points at Minnesota and the other they gave up 123 to the Knicks at home. I just think bad teams are more likely to struggle in a bad scheduling spot and this just doesn't feel like near enough points for the gap in talent. Give me the Kings -5! |
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11-03-21 | Nuggets +1 v. Grizzlies | Top | 106-108 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH (Nuggets +1) I love the Nuggets at basically a pick'em on the road against the Grizzlies. These two teams just played on Monday in Memphis, creating a true revenge spot with the same opponent in the same venue. Memphis won that game 106-97 in a great buy low spot on the Grizzlies after an ugly 103-129 home loss to the Heat. It was also a bad spot for Denver, playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and second straight on the road. Denver should be a bit refreshed being able to stay in Memphis over their off day on Tuesday. They should also be highly motivated to beat a team they just lost to, especially with how they played offensively, scoring just 97 points. Hard to see this Memphis defense holding the Nuggets offense in check in back-to-back games. Defense is not a strength of this team. The Grizzlies are giving up 114.1 ppg, allowing 47.6% shooting and are dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. Give me the Nuggets +1! |
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11-03-21 | Bulls +2 v. 76ers | 98-103 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Bulls +2) I'll take my chances with the Bulls as a slim 2-point dog on the road against the 76ers. Chicago was expected to be much improved this season, but no one thought they were going to be this good and I think it's taken some time for the market to catch up. Bulls are 6-1 SU and 6-1 ATS. As for the 76ers, I think the market has been inflated on them, even though they are 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS to start the year. Philly has been playing behind the 8-ball with Ben Simmons not playing and now they got two big injuries to add their problem. Danny Green is out with a hamstring injury and Tobias Harris is out with Covid. Harris is the 76ers second leading scorer at 19.8 ppg (also averages 9 rpg and 4.2 apg), while Green is one of their top 3-point shooters. Give me the Bulls +2! |
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11-03-21 | Knicks v. Pacers -1 | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Pacers -1) I really like the value with the Pacers as a slim 1-point home favorite against the Knicks. New York's gotten off to a fine start and I've made some money on this team early, but I think they are being way overvalued here on the road against a Pacers team that is finally starting to get healthy. Indiana recently got back one of their best players in Caris LeVert, but while he was returning they had to deal with the loss of Malcolm Brogdon, who was really carrying this team early. Brogdon is expected to return from his hamstring injury, making the Pacers that much better and deeper. I just think it's the time to buy low on Indiana right now. Give me the Pacers -1! |
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11-02-21 | Kings +9 v. Jazz | 113-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Kings +9) I'm like getting 9-points with the Kings on the road against the Jazz. This just feels like a few too many for Utah to be laying. While Sacramento is off to a mere 3-3 start this season, this looks like a much better version of the Kings than what we saw a year ago. The biggest thing that gets overlooked with the Kings .500 start, is the schedule that they have had to endure. They have played road games against the Blazers, Suns, Pelicans and Mavs, while their only two home games have come against these Jazz and the Warriors. Utah did win the first meeting 110-101, which is the same margin as the number here, but keep in mind that the Kings had a 52-46 lead at the half and were only down 1 going into the 4th. You might be thinking that the Jazz should win by more with the game on their home court this time, but I just think there's also the same argument you could make for the Kings being motivated for revenge. I also don't love the spot here for the Jazz. Utah just finished up a 3-game midwest trip on Sunday and have to go right back on the road for another 3-game trip after this one is over. Give me the Kings +9! |
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11-01-21 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies -2 | 97-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Grizzlies -2) I really like Memphis as a slim 2-point home favorite against the Nuggets. We played against the Nuggets as a small road dog against the Twolves on Saturday and took a tough loss in a 93-91 Denver win. Minnesota did us no favors, shooting just 38.9% from the field and turning it over 20 times. Even though it ended up being the wrong side, I think it was the right handicap, playing against the Nuggets in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. While Denver did have Sunday off, this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights. We are also getting the exact same price betting against the Nuggets with a much better team in the Grizzlies. It just feels like to me we are getting a big overreaction on Memphis after that ugly 103-129 loss at home to the Heat on Saturday. Should get a really big effort here from the Grizzlies against a tired Nuggets team. Give me Memphis -2! |
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11-01-21 | Cavs v. Hornets UNDER 221.5 | 113-110 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (UNDER 221.5) I really like the UNDER 221.5 in Monday's NBA matchup between the Hornets and Cavs. I have a really hard time seeing these two teams score into the 220's. The Cavs are an ideal UNDER team. They are awful offensively, don't like to play with much tempo (T-24th in pace) and are a top half of the league defensive team. UNDER has cashed in each of the Cavs' last 5 games. The reason the total is high, is the Hornets are an OVER team. They score 118.6 ppg and give up 115.3 ppg. Aside from Cleveland doing whatever they can to slow the pace down, I think we could see Charlotte play a little slower than what we would normally see. Hornets are going to be on no rest after hosting the Blazers yesterday and this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the UNDER 221.5! |
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10-30-21 | Nuggets v. Wolves -2 | 93-91 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Late Night VEGAS INSIDER (Wolves -2) I will lay the short number with Minnesota at home against the Nuggets. I not only think this Timberwolves team is a lot better than people realize, but there's a pretty big scheduling advantage here for Minnesota. The Timberwolves will be playing this game on a full 2 days of rest. The Nuggets on the other hand will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back after last night's showdown with the Mavs. While it was a blowout, that was a primetime game on ESPN, so there's likely to be some emotional letdown here. You also can't overreact to that outcome with how bad the Mavs were. Dallas played no defense and shot 29.5% from the field. It's also not like we have seen Denver fail to bring it. Just a few games back they lost 87-99 at home to the Cavs as a 9.5-point favorite. Not only do the Timberwolves have a potent 1-2-3 scoring attack with Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and D'Angelo Russell, but are playing much better on the defensive side of the ball. Minnesota ranks 3rd in the league right now in defensive efficiency (last year they finished T-25th). Give me the Timberwolves -2! |
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10-30-21 | Heat v. Grizzlies -2 | 129-103 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Smart Money ATS ANNIHILATOR (Grizzlies -2) Great price here with Memphis as a slim 2-point home favorite against the Heat. Even though the Grizzlies are off an impressive 104-101 win at Golden State as a 6-point dog, I think the public has really got on board with this Miami team and a lot of people watched them dismantle the Hornets 114-99 last night in the first game of the ESPN double-header. I just think it's created a great sell high spot on the Heat, playing on the road against a really good team and doing so on no rest. It's also worth pointing out that Miami has not shot the ball anywhere close to as good on the road as they have at home. Heat are scoring 119.3 ppg at home compared to 98.5 ppg on the road. They have shot close to 50% at home and 39.0% on the road. Another thing to note with Memphis and them being a little undervalued even though they are 3-2, is they have played 4 of their 5 games to start to the season on the road. Give me the Grizzlies -2! |
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10-30-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -3 | 94-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (76ers -3) I really love the value here with Philly as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Hawks. The 76ers are definitely down a notch missing a player of Ben Simmons caliber, but there's still more than enough talent for this to be a top tier team in the Eastern Conference without them. They just aren't a title contender without him on the floor. With that said, I just think they should be a bigger favorite here at home. You also have to take into consideration that the Hawks aren't exactly living up to expectations to start the season. It just feels like to me that they are a bit overvalued after making the Eastern Conference Finals last year. A good note to go with that is the Hawks beat the 76ers in a grueling 7-game series to get to the Eastern Conference Finals, so you got to think this is one Philly will definitely be up for. I also think you have to really look at how the Hawks have played on the road. They are 1-2 away from home. They lost 95-101 at Cleveland as a 8-point favorite, 111-122 as a 3-point favorite at Washington and barely beat the Pelicans 102-99 as a 5-point favorite. This will also be Atlanta's 3rd road game in 4 nights, which I don't think people are factoring in near enough. Give me the Hawks -3! |
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10-29-21 | Mavs +2 v. Nuggets | Top | 75-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Friday Night MAX UNIT Top Play (Mavs +2) I really like Dallas as a slim 2-point road dog against the Nuggets on Friday. The big question mark here for a lot of people looking at this game is the health of Nikola Jokic for Denver. He's listed as questionable after suffering a knee injury in their last game vs the Jazz. He only played 15 minutes before getting hurt and did not return. There was no structural damage, which is why he's questionable, but he didn't practice Thursday and it would seem foolish for the Nuggets to put him out there for this game. I know the Nuggets didn't fold against a good Utah team after Jokic went down (lost 110-122), but I just don't think they got the talent to really be a good team without him on the floor, especially with Jamal Murray still sidelined. Mavs have won 3 straight since that ugly showing in their opener, where they lost 87-113 at Atlanta. Even if Porzingis doesn't play, I still think Dallas has the two best players in this game with Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson. Wouldn't be shocked if this line doesn't flip after it's official that Jokic is out. Give me the Mavs +2! |
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10-29-21 | Kings -2 v. Pelicans | 113-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Kings -2) It feels like I could be walking into a trap here, but I just can't pass up a play on Sacramento as a slim 2-point road favorite against the Pelicans, who are a shell of themselves to start the year with Zion Williamson sidelined. New Orleans is just 1-4 with their only win coming in the second leg of back-to-back games vs the Twolves, where Minnesota won the first meeting. The Kings are just 2-2, but that's actually a pretty impressive record when you consider their schedule has been @ POR, vs UTAH, vs GS and @ PHO. They won both of those games on the road vs the Blazers and Suns. I also don't think people realize how good the Kings' Harrison Barnes has been playing. He's averaging a double-double with 26.8 ppg and 10.0 rpg. Give me the Kings -2! |
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10-29-21 | Pacers v. Nets UNDER 223.5 | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 223.5) I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 223.5 in tonight's NBA matchup that has the Pacers visiting the Nets. It's hard to not like the Pacers a a big dog given what we have seen out of this Brooklyn team so far, but I just can't get there with Indiana with the injury to Malcolm Brogdon. The Pacers have already been without two starters to start the season in T.J. Warren and Caris LaVert, which I think makes losing Brogdon, by far one of their best players, that much bigger of a blow. Brogdon leads the team in scoring (23.4 ppg) and assists (7.0 apg) and is second in rebound (7.0 rpg). I just wonder if the Pacers will be able to get into any kind of rhythm offensively without him at the point. As for the Nets, they are playing no where close to what we thought we would see offensively. Some of that is not having Kyrie Irving, but it's also a lackluster group of role players and James Harden shooting bricks. Harden is averaging just 16.6 ppg on 35.9% shooting. No surprise the UNDER is 5-0 in their 5 games. Give me the UNDER 223.5! |
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10-28-21 | Knicks v. Bulls -1 | Top | 104-103 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Knicks/Bulls MAX UNIT Top Play (Bulls -1) I love the Bulls at basically a pick'em at home against the Knicks. We knew Chicago was going to be an improved team with the moves they made in the offseason to bring in the likes of Lonzo Ball, DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso to pair with the likes of Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. Despite not playing anywhere close to their potential offensively, the Bulls have managed to start out the season 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS. A big reason for that is their defense. Chicago is 2nd in the league behind only the Heat in team defensive efficiency. They are giving up just 97.5 ppg, while holding teams to 43.7% shooting from the field and 33.0% from behind the 3-point line. They are also only giving up an average of 16 free throws a game, so teams are having to work for everything they get. Now they have faced a pretty favorable schedule. Their 4 wins have come against the Pistons (2x), Pelicans and Raptors. With that said, I see them extremely motivated here to show they are for real against a good Knicks team and there's no love between the Chicago and New York fan base. The energy inside the United Center tonight I believe is going to feel a lot like a playoff game. I think the books were right when they opened this game at Chicago -3. Give me the Bulls -1! |
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10-27-21 | Grizzlies v. Blazers OVER 234 | 96-116 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) Late Night Total NO-BRAINER (Over 234) I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 234 in tonight's NBA game between the Blazers and Grizzlies. Portland had combined for at least 239 points in each of their first two games before laying a dud in a 86-116 loss at the Clippers on Monday. Memphis has scored at least 118 in all 3 of their games, with all 3 games going over and seeing a combined score of 134 or more. Portland leads the NBA in pace of play at 108.1 and Memphis ranks dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Hard to see the Blazers not getting to 120 points in this one. Throw in how well the Grizzlies are playing offensively and this thing could easily get into the 250s. OVER is 24-11 in Portland's last 35 after a game that went UNDER and 18-8 in the Grizzlies last 26 as a road dog. Give me the OVER 234! |
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10-27-21 | Kings +8 v. Suns | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Wednesday Night MAX UNIT Top Play (Kings +8) I love the value we are getting with the Kings as a 8-point road dog against the Suns. I just think Phoenix is being way overvalued by the books to start the season, which all stems from last year's run to the NBA Finals. They are just 1-2 to start the year with a 12-point home loss to the Nuggets as a 6-point favorite and a 29-point loss as a 2.5-point dog at Portland. They did beat the Lakers 115-105 on the road, but LA has not looked great early on as they try to figure out how to make it all work with Westbrook. Kings are also 1-2, which might not seem great, but most probably had them 0-3 to start the year. Sacramento had to go on the road to play the Blazers in their opener before hosting the Jazz and Warriors. They beat Portland and while they lost to Utah and Golden State, they were competitive in both games. I just think this is a much closer matchup than the number would suggest. I think we see that in the fact that the Kings rate higher in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Give me the Kings +8! |
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10-27-21 | Heat +4.5 v. Nets | 106-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Heat +4.5) I will gladly take my chances with Miami a 4.5-point road dog against the Nets. I just have not been impressed with what I've seen out of Brooklyn to start the year. It's all Durant. Harden isn't giving them anything close to what they need and they aren't as deep as they were a season ago. It shows in the fact that you got two former MVPs in your starting lineup and you are shooting just 44.2% as a team from the field. As for Miami, I think everyone realises the Heat are a top tier team, I just don't think they realize how good they are. The only game they lost was a road game at the Pacers where they didn't have Kyle Lowry. It was also a big flat spot for the Heat after they laid it all on the line in a 137-95 win over the Bucks two days earlier. I just think the Heat are playing the better basketball and have a lot more to prove in this one. Give me Miami +4.5! |
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10-26-21 | 76ers v. Knicks -1.5 | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - 76ers/Knicks Atlantic Division PLAY OF THE MONTH (Knicks -1.5) I love the value we are getting with the Knicks as a slim 1.5-point home favorite against the 76ers. This to me feels like what the line should be if Philly was at full strength with Ben Simmons on the floor. I know that the 76ers are 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS to start the season without Simmons, but their two wins have come against the Pelicans and Thunder, who are a combined 1-6. The only legit team they played is the Nets and they lost at home 109-114. The Knicks are a team that I think are flying a little bit under the radar. No one seems to want to give Thibs and this team much respect for what they did a year ago, where they finished with the 4th best record in the east at 41-31. Knicks opened the season with that crazy 138-134 2OT win at home against Boston. A game they should have won in regulation if not for a minor collapse in the last few minutes. They went out 2 days later and crushed the Magic 121-9, covering as a 8-point favorite. They did lose outright as a 12-point favorite at home to Orlando in their next game, but that was the definition of a flat spot for New York. I just think with Julius Randle playing like he did last year and the two big additions of Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier, the Knicks are an even stronger team this season. Give me the Knicks -1.5! |
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10-25-21 | Wizards +7 v. Nets | Top | 90-104 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Wizards +7) I love the value we are getting with Washington as a 7-point dog against the Nets. I've been on Washington in each of their first two games. They came thru in their opener and had a brutal beat in the second game...they were -2.5, led by 10 going to the 4th quarter, were up 4 in OT and Pacers hit a 3 a the buzzer to lose by 1. Keep in mind they played that game against Indiana without their best player in Bradley Beal. It just goes to speak to the depth this Wizards team has added. Dinwiddie, who they added from Brooklyn, had a team-high 34 and Kuzma put in 26. The Nets just haven't looked like the team we thought. They got blitzed in the opener at Milwaukee, were a bit lucky to beat the 76ers on the road and lost 95-111 at home to the Hornets yesterday. A game they led 58-50 at the half. Durant is playing great, but he's getting no help. James Harden has not played up to par, as he's only averaging 18.3 ppg on 38.8% shooting. Give me the Wizards +7! |
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10-25-21 | Bucks v. Pacers OVER 229.5 | 119-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 229.5) The line here screams take the Pacers and I might end up throwing a little on Indiana in this one, but I think the even better value is on the OVER 229.5. I think a lot of people expected this Pacers offense to struggle early with starters Caris LeVert and T.J. Warren sidelined. It hasn't. They got 3 guys who are scoring 20+ ppg. Sabonis is at 26.0 ppg, Brogdon is at 24.7 ppg and 1st round rookie Duarte is at 20.3 ppg. They rank in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency. They also are playing fast, as they rank 5th in the NBA in pace. They also catch a break in this one, as the Bucks will be without two starters and two of their better defenders in Brook Lopez and Jrue Holiday. You might be wondering about the Bucks offense without those two guys, but they still got Antetokounmpo and Middleton to carry that offense. I also don't think this Pacers defense is anything special. They just held Miami to 91 in their last game, but that Heat team shot horrific and really looked lost without point guard Kyle Lowry. Give me the OVER 229.5! |
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10-23-21 | Heat -4 v. Pacers | 91-102 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Heat -4) We had a really bad beat last night on the Wizards -2.5, as they ended up beating the Pacers 135-134 in OT. It was just brutal. Washington had a 10-point lead going into the 4th quarter and proceeded to score just 17 to send the game to OT, where the Pacers hit a 3 at the buzzer down 4. I just really question how much Indiana has left in the tank after playing that OT game against the Wizards. Keep in mind the Pacers played in a uptempo affair on Wednesday against Charlotte (lost 122-123). This will be their 3rd game in 4 nights on no rest. Miami on the other hand has only played 1 game this season, which was Thursday's 137-95 blowout win over the Bucks at home. Heat are going to be the much more rested team in this game and on top of that are hands down the better team in this matchup. Miami's got another day off tomorrow before hosting an awful Orlando team on Monday, so there's no reason for them to not show up with a great effort here. Give me the Heat -4! |
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10-22-21 | Suns v. Lakers UNDER 223 | 115-105 | Win | 100 | 23 h 50 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Suns/Lakers ESPN Sharp Money INSIDER (Under 223) It's a long season and one loss doesn't mean much, but no one wants to start the season poorly. I think there's going to be a sense of urgency for both the Suns and Lakers to play well and avoid starting 0-2 after upset losses in their season openers. LA got 30+ points from LeBron and AD and still lost 114-121 at home to the Warriors. Phoenix lost by double-digits at home 98-110 to the Nuggets. You also got to factor in with how big a public team the Lakers are and this being a game that is televised on ESPN, it's going to get a decent amount of traffic. I think these big games can see some inflated totals and this definitely feels high to me. The Lakers are simply too old to play a run and gun style for 82 games and adding Westbrook doesn't change that. You also got some chemistry issues with Westbrook trying to carve a role in an offense where he's not going to be the primary ball handler. It wasn't pretty in his debut, as he scored just 8 points with a mere 4 assists and 5 rebounds. Suns are also a team that doesn't like to play fast. Phoenix T-26th in pace of play last year and basically brought the same roster back. These are also two teams that ranked in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency last year. Give me the UNDER 223! |
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10-22-21 | Nets -1 v. 76ers | Top | 114-109 | Win | 100 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
50* (NBA) Friday Night MAX UNIT Top Play (Nets -1) I was dead wrong with Brooklyn in Tuesday's season opener at Milwaukee. I thought the Bucks would come out fat and happy and instead they played like they were the team with something to prove. Unfortunately these great situation spots can't come through every time. The Nets didn't help matters by not playing up to their potential. They got outscored 37-25 in the 1st quarter and 30-19 in the 4th quarter. I know they are without Kyrie, but the duo of Harden and Durant is still lethal. I just don't see this team starting the season 0-2. The 76ers are an interesting team, as they have all that off the court drama going on with Ben Simmons. Philly is still a playoff team without Simmons if Embiid is healthy, but not a team you think can do much in the postseason. They won their season opener 117-97 against a Pelicans team that was without Zion. That was the good news for the 76ers. One game into the season and Joel Embiid is already showing up on the injury report with a sore knee. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he doesn't play in this game. Philly hasn't hesitated in years past resting him when he's not at full strength and it would makes sense to do it this early in the year. With or without Embiid on the floor in this game, I will go down swinging with Brooklyn at this price. Give me the Nets -1! |
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10-22-21 | Pacers v. Wizards -2.5 | 134-135 | Loss | -104 | 20 h 44 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Wizards -2.5) I think a lot of people were surprised with how good the Wizards looked in Wednesday's season opener. They laid it on a Raptors team that a lot of people came into the season thinking could be a surprise in the east. Washington won 98-83, outscoring Toronto 57-37 in the 1st half. I was not one of those people that were surprised. I gave out a free pick on the Wizards Wednesday. With triple-double machines Russell Westbrook getting traded to the Lakers, it just felt like everyone wrote this team off. It's not as bad of a roster as you think. They still have a top tier player in Bradley Beal who can shoulder the offense. The only other starter back with Beal is big man Daniel Gafford, who they got in a trade last year. They signed Spencer Dinwiddie away from the Nets, who only played 3 games last year after posting career highs of 20.6 ppg and 6.8 apg the season before. The other two starters are guys they got in the Westbrook trade in Kyle Kuzma and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (also got a great reserve in Montrezl Harrell). The Pacers lost 122-123 on the road against the Hornets in an absolutely crazy game. Indiana's couldn't miss in the 1st half of that game and jumped out to a 75-59 lead at the half. They then managed to score just 13 points in the 3rd quarter and Charlotte all the sudden led 92-88 going into the 4th. Hornets got the lead up to 10, before the Pacers stormed back to take the lead. I just wonder if that game didn't take a lot of a depleted Pacers roster that is starting the season down two starters in Caris LeVert and T.J. Warren. Keep in mind they only used an 8-man rotation against Charlotte. I also just wonder if an awful Hornets defense didn't make this Pacers team look a little better than it actually is right now. Give me the Wizards -2.5! |
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10-21-21 | Mavs v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 87-113 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
50* (NBA) Vegas Insider MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks -2.5) I love the value here with the Hawks as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Mavericks. I'm a little shocked Atlanta isn't getting a little more love here. This is a team that appeared to take a huge step forward last season, as they made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals. That should have only lit a fire under this Hawks team to work that much harder to take that elusive next step and get to a NBA Finals. Regardless if they got a real shot at that or not, they believe they do. So much so that they brought basically everyone back from that team. You could same the same thing about the Mavs bringing a lot of their guys back, but there is a big difference with this Dallas team. Head coach Rick Carlisle decided to not come back (now with the Pacers) and they replaced him with Jason Kidd. I loved Kidd as a player, but he's been a failure at this head coaching thing. I know it might not seem like a NBA coach does a lot, but I think losing Carlisle is a big deal for this young team. Give me the Hawks -2.5 at home! |
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10-20-21 | Nuggets +6 v. Suns | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Situational Late Night BAILOUT B-L-O-W-O-U-T (Nuggets +6) Big time value here with the Nuggets as a 6-point dog in Wednesday's season opener. Denver will be on the road against the Suns, who I think are going to be a team the books way overvalue early on. Everyone wants to bet Phoenix after last year's run to the NBA Finals, especially with the Suns bringing back everyone from that team and adding a guy like Landry Shamet. This should be one of the better teams in the West, but they should not be this big of a favorite against an equally talented Nuggets team. Denver has finished in the Top 3 of the Western Conference standings each of the last 3 years. They got too got everyone back, including the reigning MVP in Nikola Jokic. If I was making a line on these two teams on a neutral court, I would have them at a pick'em. While home court is not equal in the NBA, the standard is around 3 points. This line is double that. Give me the Nuggets +6! |
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10-20-21 | Bulls v. Pistons OVER 219.5 | 94-88 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 219.5) I want to lay the points with Chicago in this one (might put a little on it), but feel the safer bet is on the OVER 219.5. This new look Bulls team is getting some hype coming into the season after adding Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan to form a pretty good top 4 with returnees Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. They also got a talented youngster in Pat Williams, who I like, and two more additions off the bench in Alex Caruso and Derrick Jones Jr. I think they could be even better than people are expecting. With what's going on with Ben Simmons in Philly, there's reason to think this team could be right there fighting for that right to be the 3rd best team in the Eastern Conference behind the Bucks and Nets. Regardless if they live up to that or not, this is a team that I think will be one of the more higher-scoring teams in the league. Few are better in the NBA at igniting the fast break than Ball and LaVine is one of the more electric open court players. I see this team playing a ton in transition and being one of the more higher-scoring teams in the league. The big concern with Chicago is just how good can this team be defensively? I think it could have some problems, especially early in the year given the lack of chemistry they have playing together. Detroit doesn't even figure to be in the running for a playoff spot this year. The Pistons simply put lack talent. They are rebuilding under Cade Cunningham. He's not going to play. I just think people have a hard time seeing the Pistons doing enough offensively to want to take the OVER in this game. I just think the total is too low. I think Chicago will be pushing 120 points and don't think this defense on the road is going to hold Detroit under 100. Give me the OVER 219.5! |
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10-20-21 | Pacers v. Hornets -2 | Top | 122-123 | Loss | -104 | 21 h 36 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Vegas Insider MAX UNIT Top Play (Hornets -2) I absolutely love the Hornets as a mere 2-point home favorite in Wednesday's season opener at home against the Pacers. I know a lot of people are questioning Charlotte having a 38.5 game win total after only winning 33 games a year ago (keep in mind they did play 10 fewer games). I definitely don't think there will be many running to place a bet on the OVER 38.5. That tells me the books see a lot in this team and are more than happy to take your UNDER bet. I'll side with the wiseguys that this Charlotte team is going to be improved. The do got a pretty good starting 5 with LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, Miles Bridgers and Mason Plumlee/P.J. Washington. Ball had a sensational rookie year, averaging 15.7 ppg, 6.1 apg and 5.9 rpg. He only played in 51 games and started just 31, which might be a big part of the books stake on this team. If he takes another step in year two, this team will be in the playoff mix. The Pacers are a team that I got my concerns with. Indiana was just as bad as Charlotte last year. They went 34-38. While there starting five of Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert, T.J. Warren, Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner, they will be down two of them. LeVert and Warren are both ruled out for this game. They could also be without one of their top reserves in Jeremy Lamb. I just think Indiana is getting way too much respect given the injuries they are dealing with to start the season. Give me the Hornets -2! |