|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-16-21||Missouri v. Georgia OVER 153.5||Top||70-80||Loss||-105||9 h 0 m||Show|
50* MISSOURI/GEORGIA NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 153.5)
I love the OVER 153.5 in Tuesday's SEC showdown between Georgia and Missouri. The Bulldogs are exactly the kind of team you want to take an OVER with. Georgia is potent offensively and like to play at a face pace. The Bulldogs rank 5th in the SEC in tempo and are scoring 76.4 ppg in SEC play (79.6 ppg last 5 games). They also play little to no defense, giving up 84.8 ppg in conference play this season.
Missouri like to play at a little slower tempo, but given how easy it figures to be on the offensive end for them, I look for them to speed it up a little tonight. In the Tigers last 12 games they have faced two teams who rank outside the Top 90 at KenPom in defensive efficiency. In those games they scored 88 against Auburn (No. 93) and 102 against TCU (No. 148). Georgia ranks 140th.
It's also worth noting that Missouri will be without big man Jeremiah Tilmon, who is their best defensive presence inside. He missed their last game against Arkansas and the Tigers gave up 86 in a game that saw a combined score of 167. Give me the OVER 153.5!
|02-15-21||Nets v. Kings OVER 241.5||136-125||Win||100||11 h 29 m||Show|
40* NETS/KINGS NBA TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 241.5)
I feel like a broken record with the OVER in Nets games, but it's been one of the best bets in the NBA for well over a month now. The OVER is 19-3 in their last 22 games. It's also 6-0 in their last 6 and 7-1 on the season in games with a total of 238 or more.
Even with Durant out for this game, I still feel great about the Nets and Kings eclipsing the mark here of 241.5. Brooklyn is still elite offensively with the duo of Irving and Harden and will be up against a Sacramento defense that has allowed 110 or more in 6 straight.
As for the Kings offense, they have scored 110 or more in 7 straight and 9 of 10 overall. Brooklyn has allowed 115 or more in 13 of their last 15 with 11 of those teams scoring 120 or more. I think both teams hit 120 in this one. Give me the OVER 241.5!
|02-15-21||Rockets v. Wizards UNDER 228.5||Top||119-131||Loss||-109||9 h 50 m||Show|
50* WIZARDS/ROCKETS NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 228.5)
I love the value here with the UNDER 228.5 in Monday's NBA matchup between the Rockets and Wizards. A lot of people just see the fact that Washington is giving up 119.1 ppg and just immediately look to play the OVER.
Thing is the Wizards have had a bit of bad luck on the defensive end this year. They advanced stats suggest they should be allowing a lot less than they have been and those stats are starting to show as the UNDER has hit in 6 of the last 7 games for the Wizards.
Not only is it their defense, but it's also their struggles offensively, as Washington has shot 42% or worse from the field in 6 of 7. Houston is in a major offensive funk right now as well, as they are really missing Christian Wood and will also be without Oladipo. Rockets have shot 43% or worse in 5 straight and are scoring just 98.8 ppg during this stretch. Give me the UNDER 228.5!
|02-14-21||Blazers v. Mavs OVER 235.5||121-118||Win||100||9 h 4 m||Show|
40* BLAZERS/MAVS NBA TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 235.5)
I just think the OVER is a really strong play right now in games involving the Mavs. Dallas has finally gotten healthy and we are starting to see them regain that elite offensive form they showed last year. The Mavs are averaging 127.6 ppg on 49.4% shooting in their last 5.
As good as they have been offensively, they have been just as bad, if not worse, on the defensive side. Dallas is giving up 129.6 ppg over this same 5-game stretch. Blazers are down two starters in Nurkic and McCollum, which I think has people thinking they aren't as strong offensively. Thing is, as long as they got Lillard running the point they are going to be an offensive juggernaut and they got plenty of other guys who can score. Blazers are scoring 117.0 ppg and giving up 115.9 ppg in road games this year. Play the OVER 235.5!
|02-14-21||Spurs v. Hornets OVER 228.5||Top||122-110||Win||100||9 h 35 m||Show|
50* SPURS/HORNETS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 228.5)
I love the OVER 228.5 in Sunday's matchup between San Antonio and Charlotte. I see these two teams easily getting to 230 points. That's basically been every game here of late for the Hornets. In Charlotte's last 5 games they are scoring 118.6 ppg and giving up 114.6 ppg.
Spurs aren't exactly viewed as a great offensive team, but they are quietly averaging 110.7 ppg and that jumps up to 113.2 ppg on the road. In their last road game at Atlanta on Friday they scored 125 points on 53% shooting and were better than that as they had 110 points thru 3 quarters before throwing in the scrubs in the 4th.
Spurs are also not a great defensive team. They are giving up 111.5 ppg on 47% shooting from the field and 39% from behind the 3-point line on the season. That poor 3-point defense figures to be a major problem against the Hornets. Charlotte is averaging 14 made 3's and shooting 38% from deep on the season. Give me the OVER 228.5!
|02-13-21||Nets v. Warriors OVER 242.5||134-117||Win||100||11 h 8 m||Show|
40* NETS/WARRIORS NBA STEAMROLLER (Over 242.5)
I'm not about to give up with the OVER in Brooklyn games after one low-scoring game. The Nets are off a 104-94 win at home against the Pacers. That was the first time in 8 games they held a team under 120 points. I just think it was more of Indiana not being able to buy a shot in the 1st half. Pacers had 30 points at intermission and then scored 64 in the 2nd half.
I don't see the Nets slowing down the Warriors, especially with how well Curry is playing right now. At the same time, Brooklyn could go off in this one. They will be getting back Durant and you know he's going to be excited for this one. Nets scored 60+ points on the Warriors in each half when these two met on opening night. Brooklyn has gotten even strong on offense since that game with the addition of Harden and worse defensively. Warriors are also a completely different offensive team now compared to then. Give me the OVER 242.5!
|02-12-21||Knicks v. Wizards UNDER 218.5||Top||109-91||Win||100||9 h 54 m||Show|
50* KNICKS/WIZARDS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Under 218.5)
I really like the UNDER 218.5 in Friday's slate between the Knicks and Wizards. Washington's defensive numbers don't look great, as they are giving up 120.9 ppg on the season and 126.4 ppg at home. I'm not saying this is a great defensive team, but the advance stats strongly suggest they are a better defensive team than what it shows. Teams have just shot lights out against them.
That's where the Knicks come into play. New York is one of the few, if not the only, team that wants to win games strictly on their defense. New York is only scoring 101.7 ppg on the road this season. 101.7 ppg would be decent 10 years ago. It's awful in this day an age. With Bradley Beal sitting out this game for rest, the Knicks should be able to turn this into more of a half-court game and keep it well below the number. Give me the UNDER 218.5!
|02-11-21||Raptors v. Celtics UNDER 223||106-120||Loss||-109||10 h 40 m||Show|
40* RAPTORS/CELTICS NBA SHARP STAKE (Under 223)
Most will be quick to take the OVER in Thursday's game between Toronto and Boston, as the OVER has gone a perfect 7-0 in the Raptors' last 7 games. While Toronto has clearly got some things figured out on offense, they have played a bunch of bad defensive teams during this stretch.
I believe there's reason to believe that this game will be lower-scoring than expected. The Raptors will be playing their 6th straight road game and will be playing this game on no rest. It's also their 5th game in the last 7 days.
While Toronto figures to be playing at a slower pace than they have been, they also figure to be up against a very motivated Celtics team that will be looking to snap a 2 game skid. Boston did give up 122 at Utah in their last game, but had allowed just 106.8 ppg over their previous 5. They also only give up 107.4 ppg at home.
UNDER is 8-1 in Toronto's last 9 vs a team with a winning record and 5-1 in their last 6 after a game where they scored 125 or more (had 137 last night). UNDER has also cashed 7 straight times when they are playing their 5th road game in 7 days and is 5-0 this season after allowing 110 or more in 4 straight games. Give me the UNDER 223!
|02-10-21||Pelicans v. Bulls OVER 231||116-129||Win||100||10 h 29 m||Show|
40* PELICANS/BULLS NBA TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 231)
I like the OVER quite a bit with the Pelicans at the Bulls. New Orleans has scored at least 109 points in 10 straight games and have failed to reach that mark only 3 times all season. The Bulls are giving up 114.8 ppg on 48% shooting at home this season.
I believe the only reason the total here isn't higher, is the fact that Chicago has been in a bunch of low scoring games here of late. However, that's more a result of who they have played, as their last 5 have come against the Knicks (twice), Magic (twice) and Wizards.
I'm confident the Pelicans will get to at least 120 in this game, but the real key here is that we should get a big output from Chicago as well with New Orleans playing the second of a back-to-back on the road. OVER is 6-1 in the Pelicans last 7 on no rest and 8-1 in their last 9 as a favorite. Give me the OVER 231!
|02-10-21||Pacers v. Nets OVER 235||94-104||Loss||-108||9 h 28 m||Show|
40* PACERS/NETS NBA OVER/UNDER STEAMROLLER (Over 235)
I'm going to keep playing the OVER in Brooklyn games until they quit going OVER the total at this ridiculous rate. The OVER is 18-2 in the Nets last 20 games. You really can't ask for a better over team. The Nets are one of the best offensive teams in the league and play absolutely no defense. Even without Durant they got more than enough fire-power with Irving and Harden to keep cashing these overs.
Nets defensively are as bad as I have seen. They have given up 120 or more points in each of their last 7 games and several of those have come against bad offensive teams. With the way Indiana can score and Brooklyn playing here on no rest, I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Pacers eclipsed 130 in this game. Nets are going to score at least 110 and more than likely will be in the 120s. Give me the OVER 235!
|02-10-21||Raptors v. Wizards OVER 232||Top||137-115||Win||100||9 h 35 m||Show|
50* RAPTORS/WIZARDS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 232)
I love the OVER 232 in today's game between the Raptors and Wizards. Washington has seen the UNDER cash in 4 straight, but all of those were on the road and against some subpar offensive teams in the Heat (twice), Hornets and Bulls. Prior to this recent stretch the OVER had cashed in 11 of 16 games involving the Wizards. OVER is also a dominant 7-2 in the 9 home games Washington has played. Not a big surprise that the Wizards are an OVER team at home. They play at one of the fastest tempos in the league, are scoring 121.3 ppg at home and giving up 125.2 ppg.
As for the Raptors, they are red-hot offensively right now. Toronto is averaging 122.0 ppg over their last 5 and are scoring 116.5 and giving up 115.7 ppg on the road this season. OVER has cashed in each of the Raptors last 6 games and is 9-4 in their 13 road games. Give me the OVER 232!
|02-09-21||Nets v. Pistons OVER 230||Top||111-122||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
50* NETS/PISTONS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 230)
I love the OVER between Brooklyn and Detroit tonight. Even with Kevin Durant sidelined, the Nets are still an offensive juggernaut with Irving and Harden. Those two can more than carry the load and I expect both to be on point here to make sure the Nets don't lose a 3rd straight game.
Thing is those two are also a big liability on the defensive side of the ball and we have seen the Nets consistently give up a ton of points to bad offensive teams like Detroit. Brooklyn has allowed 120 or more points in 10 of their last 11 games. There's a good chance both teams hit 120 points in this game. The total here should be closer to 240. Give me the OVER 230!
|02-09-21||Notre Dame v. Duke OVER 146.5||93-89||Win||100||7 h 51 m||Show|
40* NOTRE DAME/DUKE NCAAB STEAMROLLER (Over 146.5)
I like the OVER 146.5 in today's ACC clash between Duke and Notre Dame. Both of these offenses are capable of putting up 80 points in this game. Notre Dame is absolutely on fire right now on the offensive side of the ball. Irish have shot 51% or better from the field in each of their last 3 games and scored at least 79 in all 3. They will be going up against a Duke defense that has allowed each of their last two opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field.
The Blue Devils have scored 75 or more in 4 straight and are averaging 77.4 ppg at home on the season. Duke scored 75 points on 52% shooting in an earlier meeting this season. That was the first time 5 meetings the Blue Devils didn't score at least 83 on the Irish.
OVER is 8-2 in Duke's 10 conference games this season, 20-6 in their last 26 at home and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 at home off a conference loss. OVER is also a perfect 6-0 in Notre Dame's last 6 off a road loss by 3-points or less. Give me the OVER 146.5!
|02-05-21||Raptors v. Nets OVER 241.5||123-117||Loss||-100||10 h 1 m||Show|
40* RAPTORS/NETS NBA STEAMROLLER (OVER 241.5)
I know a total in the 240's is extremely high for an NBA game, but I don't think it's that big of a challenge in a game involving this Nets team. Brooklyn has turned into an offensive juggernaut with their big 3 of Durant, Harden and Irving. Because it's so easy for them on offense, they don't really invest a lot on the defensive end. The Nets have allowed at least 115 in points in 12 of their last 14 games. They have scored 120+ in 8 of their last 10.
The Raptors are giving up 114.2 ppg on the road this season and 116 ppg over their last 5. I just don't see Toronto being able to slow down this Nets offense. On the flip side, I don't think it's asking much for the Raptors to hit the 120 mark, especially when you factor in Brooklyn likely not playing much defense here with a big game on deck tomorrow at Philadelphia. Give me the OVER 241.5!
|02-04-21||Warriors v. Mavs OVER 227||147-116||Win||100||9 h 26 m||Show|
40* WARRIORS/MAVS NBA STEAMROLLER (OVER 227)
We cashed the OVER last night in the Mavs 122-116 win at Atlanta, which easily surpassed the total of 224. I will fire right back with the OVER in tonight's home game for Dallas against the Warriors. I just don't see a lot of defense being played in this one.
For the Mavs, they just aren't going to have the legs to give the kind of effort needed on the defensive end. Not only is Dallas playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back, but this will be their 5th game in the last 7 days.
For the Warriors, they got no choice but to play small-ball as their top 3 centers are all out with injuries after Kevin Looney went down in their last game against the Celtics. They are really forced to try and win with their offense. If Porzingis plays (he could sit due to rest), he will have a field day inside, but even if he doesn't the Mavs should score with relative ease. Give me the OVER 227!
|02-03-21||Mavs v. Hawks OVER 222.5||122-116||Win||100||9 h 10 m||Show|
40* MAVERICKS/HAWKS NBA ANNIHILATOR (Over 222.5)
I like the OVER 222.5 between the Mavs and Hawks. Both of these teams are far from dominant on the defensive side of the ball. Atlanta is giving up 110.0 ppg and Dallas is giving up 110.7 ppg. I don't see either team being all that invested defensively in this one. The Mavs have been running on fumes for weeks and while they are as healthy as they have been, a lot of those guys are still working their way back into shape.
Hawks are clearly a team built around their offense and after a big defensive effort on Monday against the defending champs, I don't see them being all that invested on that side of the ball, especially with another game on deck tomorrow against the red-hot Jazz. I really think the total here should be closer to 230 and not 220. Give me the OVER 222.5!
|02-02-21||Clippers v. Nets OVER 242.5||120-124||Win||100||9 h 22 m||Show|
40* CLIPPERS/NETS NBA TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 242.5)
I just can't help myself here with the OVER in Tuesday's big matchup between the Nets and Clippers. I know 242.5 looks like a big number and it is, but not so much when you look at how Brooklyn's games have been playing out.
The Nets might be the best offensive team we have seen. They are scoring at will and are expected to have their big 3 of Durant, Irving and Harden for this game. One of the big reasons they are scoring so much is they aren't playing any defense. They have been letting mediocre offenses score 120+ points at will. The Clippers are far from mediocre.
In the Nets last 9 games they have seen a combined score of 237 points or more with each of their last 3 games going for at least 160. All we need here is for both teams to score in the 120's to cash this ticket and I think that's about as low as these two could go. Give me the OVER 242.5!
|02-02-21||Georgia v. Auburn OVER 159||91-86||Win||100||9 h 2 m||Show|
40* GEORGIA/AUBURN NCAAB STEAMROLLER (Over 159)
I got no problem playing OVER the big number of 159 in tonight's SEC showdown between Auburn and Georgia. Auburn was already a top tier offense in the SEC but the addition of freshmen sensation Sharife Cooper has taken them to another level. The Tigers are averaging 81.6 ppg in their last 5.
I look for them to have no problem getting to 80 points in this game. Georgia is giving up a staggering 82.6 ppg in conference play and a staggering 87.5 ppg in road games this season. When ever they have faced a decent offense their defense has been exposed.
Now add in the fact that Auburn doesn't play much defense of their own and these two teams love to push the pace and you got the makings of a game that will easily get into the 160s. Give me the OVER 159!
|02-01-21||Rockets v. Thunder OVER 222.5||Top||136-106||Win||100||10 h 22 m||Show|
50* ROCKETS/THUNDER NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 222.5)
I love the OVER 222.5 in Monday's matchup between the Thunder and Rockets. I really think this Rockets team is better than they get credit for and could end up being quite the juggernaut offensively. They come into this game off 126 point outburst in a 14-point win at New Orleans and I look for the offense to have another big game on the road against OKC tonight.
Thunder just gave up 147 points in regulation to the Nets and have allowed 112 or more in 8 of their last 10 games. OVER is 6-2 in OKC's last 8 games and in their last 5 they are scoring 111.6 ppg and giving up 118.8 ppg. They also are allowing a staggering 121.9 ppg at home this season. I just think the total here should be closer to 230. Give me the OVER 222.5!
|01-31-21||Washington State v. Washington OVER 140||77-62||Loss||-114||11 h 57 m||Show|
40* WASH ST/WASHINGTON NCAAB STEAMROLLER (OVER 140)
I like the OVER quite a bit in Sunday's Pac-12 matchup between in-state rivals Washington and Washington State. You got two teams here that have been playing absolutely no defense. The Huskies are giving up 77.3 ppg on the season and a ridiculous 83.2 ppg in conference play. I know Washington State's offense isn't great, but they can easily get 70 here. As for the Cougars defense, they are allowing 76.2 ppg on the road and 77.4 ppg over their last 5 conference games. Hard to see them slowing down a Washington offense that is averaging 77.8 ppg in their last 5. Give me the OVER 140!
|01-31-21||Magic v. Raptors UNDER 220.5||102-115||Win||100||10 h 58 m||Show|
40* MAGIC/RAPTORS NBA SHARP STAKE (Under 220.5)
The books have missed the mark in Sunday's NBA total between the Raptors and Magic. Orlando is one of the worst offensive teams in the league. The only teams worse than the Magic in offensive efficiency this season are the Cavs and Timberwolves and keep in mind this is a Orlando team that has lost one of their best offensive playmakers in Markelle Fultz. Toronto has a decent offense with a bad defense, which I believe is why the total is in the 220s, but the Raptors will be playing here without two of their top offensive options in Norman Powell and OG Anunoby. On top of all that, the UNDER has cashed in 10 of the last 13 meetings and each of the last 9 meetings have seen fewer points than the total posted here. Give me the UNDER 220.5!
|01-26-21||Richmond v. St. Joe's OVER 152.5||79-56||Loss||-110||7 h 5 m||Show|
40* RICHMOND/ST. JOE'S NCAAB STEAMROLLER (OVER 152.5)
I look for Richmond and St. Joe's to fly past the total of 152.5 today. Richmond is averaging 76.2 ppg in A-10 play and have scored at least 77 in all but one game. The lone exception being 66 points against St. Bonaventure, who has the No. 1 defense in the conference.
The Spiders will have to have their worst shooting performance of the season to not hit 80 points against the Hawks. St. Joseph's is giving up 84.7 ppg on the season and 82.3 ppg for the year. A big reason for that is not only are they not good defensively, but they combine that by playing at one of the fastest paces in the country. They have allowed 80 or more in 6 of their 7 league games.
Key here is that Richmond loves to play fast and aren't very good defensively . They are 13th out of 14 teams in effective FG% defense in the A-10. They are letting opponents shoot 57% on 2-point attempts, which is huge here as the Hawks are not a good 3-point shooting team. I think this one easily gets into the 160s. Give me the OVER 152.5!
|01-22-21||Bulls v. Hornets OVER 227||123-110||Win||100||9 h 44 m||Show|
40* BULLS/HORNETS NBA SHARP STAKE (OVER 227)
I really like the OVER 227 in Friday's NBA matchup between Chicago and Charlotte. The Bulls have really been playing well here of late and almost all of their games during this stretch have been high-scoring. The OVER is 5-1 in their last 6. Not a huge surprise given that Chicago is playing at the second fastest pace in the league and are also one of the worst defensive teams in the league.
Charlotte games this season have seen an average of 115.7 ppg, but when you factor in the pace that this one will be played at, it's easy to see them getting to 230. Note that both teams are going to have fresh legs. Bulls are playing on 3 days of rest and the Hornets are playing on 5 days of rest. Give me the OVER 227!
|01-19-21||Duke v. Pittsburgh OVER 141.5||73-79||Win||100||11 h 18 m||Show|
40* DUKE/PITTSBURGH NCAAB STEAMROLLER (OVER 141.5)
I like the OVER 141.5 in tonight's ACC matchup between Pittsburgh and Duke. The Blue Devils are as healthy as they have been in a while and I'm expecting them to really come out locked in offensively after a mere 67-points last time out against Va Tech. That game was last Tuesday, so Duke has had plenty of practice time to get things figured out.
Pitts defense is currently the best in the ACC, but I'm not buying it. I just don't see them being able to slow down Duke in this one. Key here is I do think the Panthers got some offensive fire-power and the Blue Devils are not a good defensive team. I think both teams easily score 70 in this one. Give me the OVER 141.5!
|01-19-21||Thunder v. Nuggets OVER 220.5||101-119||Loss||-110||11 h 42 m||Show|
40* THUNDER/NUGGETS NBA SLAUGHTER (Over 220.5)
I look for the Nuggets and Thunder to easily eclipse the total of 220.5 tonight. Denver is kind of built for high-scoring games, as they rely on their offense to win them games. The Nuggets are 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency.
Denver has played 13 gams this season. They have scored at least 103 points in every game and only once have they held their opponents under 100 points and that was the Knicks. In the Nuggets last 10 games they have allowed their opponent to shoot 46% or better 8 times. The Knicks game and a game against a depleted 76ers team because of Covid are the only two teams they held under that mark during this stretch.
In the Thunders' last 5 games they are averaging 111.6 ppg and giving up 114.0 ppg. To me this total should be closer to 230 than 220. Give me the OVER 220.5!
|01-18-21||Kansas v. Baylor UNDER 141||Top||69-77||Loss||-105||12 h 52 m||Show|
50* KANSAS/BAYLOR NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Under 141)
I will gladly take the UNDER 141 in Monday's huge Big 12 matchup between No. 2 Baylor and No. 6 Kansas. The Bears are elite on the defensive side of the ball and while Kansas isn't as good defensively as they have been in recent years, they are still more than capable of holding their own on that side of the ball.
Baylor just played a similar team to Kansas in Texas Tech on Saturday and they won that game by a final of 168 to 160 for a combined score of just 128. Kansas is certainly going to be motivated for this game and should be locked in defensively here off a loss and playing on a week of rest. UNDER has cashed in 10 of the last 13 meetings between these two teams when they play at Baylor. In both meetings last year they combined for 122 and 125 points. Give me the UNDER 141!
|01-17-21||Browns v. Chiefs OVER 57||17-22||Loss||-104||6 h 31 m||Show|
40* BROWNS/CHIEFS NFL TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 57)
This game has shootout written all over it. The Chiefs are going to score. Since Mahomes took over as the starter Kansas City is averaging 38 ppg when coming off a bye. Last year in their Divisional game off a bye they put up 51 points against the Texans in a game that saw a combined 82 points score. While turnovers plagued the Steelers offense last week against the Browns, Big Ben threw all over that defense. Expect Mahomes to have a field day in this one. Key here is Cleveland has the fire-power offensively to go score-for-score with the Chiefs, at least early on. The only thing that keeps this from going over is both teams having to settle for field goals instead of TDs because they are going to move the ball between the 20s. Give me the OVER 57!
|01-17-21||Bulls v. Mavs OVER 227||117-101||Loss||-108||5 h 25 m||Show|
40* BULLS/MAVERICKS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Over 227)
I don't expect a whole lot of defense to be played in Sunday's NBA matchup between the Bulls and Mavericks. Chicago's not a great defensive team to start with, but more than anything the Bulls just can't have much gas left in the tank. This will be their 6th straight road game and 9th road game in their last 10 overall. Their spirits also have to be a bit crushed coming off that horrific collapse at OKC on Friday. They have allowed 117 or more in each of the last 4. Dallas can definitely score, but with them coming off a massive game at Milwaukee on Friday and them leaving for a 3-game road trip that starts tomorrow in Toronto, I don't see them being all that invested on the defensive side either. Give me the OVER 227!
|01-16-21||Baylor v. Texas Tech UNDER 139||68-60||Win||100||7 h 50 m||Show|
40* BAYLOR/TEXAS TECH NCAAB NO-BRAINER (Under 139)
I just can't help myself here with the UNDER 139 in Saturday's Big 12 showdown between Texas Tech and Baylor. These are just two of the best defensive teams in the Big 12, they are two of the best in the entire country. The Bears are 3rd nationally in defensive efficiency and Texas Tech is 5th. I know Baylor is great offensively, but this is by far the best defense they have faced this year and it's unlikely they go offensively on the road. I just don't see either team getting to 70 points. Play the UNDER 139!
|01-16-21||Kentucky v. Auburn UNDER 146||59-66||Win||100||5 h 47 m||Show|
40* KENTUCKY/AUBURN NCAAB STEAMROLLER (Under 146)
I think we are getting a great price here with the UNDER in Saturday's SEC matchup between Kentucky and Auburn. Neither of these teams are great offensively. Kentucky is 9th in the SEC in offensive efficiency and Auburn is 10th. The Wildcats are 3rd in the SEC in 3P% compared to 12th in 2P%. That plays right into the Tigers strength defensively. Auburn is just 9th in 2P% defense and 4th in 3P% defense. It's the same thing on the other side. The Tigers are 1st in 2P% offense and 7th in 3P%. Kentucky's defense is 1st in 2P% defense and 13th in 3P% defense. Both teams are built to take away what the other does the best. Give me the UNDER 146!
|01-15-21||Old Dominion v. Rice OVER 146||59-69||Loss||-106||5 h 33 m||Show|
40* OLD DOMINION/RICE NCAAB STEAMROLLER (OVER 146)
I love the value here with the OVER 146 in Friday's C-USA clash between Old Dominion and Rice. For starters, the Owls are your ideal OVER team. Rice is not only efficient offensively, they like to play fast. The Owls are No. 1 in C-USA in offensive efficiency and No. 2 in tempo. They need all the scoring they can get because they don't play much defense. They are 13th in conference play in defensive efficiency. Old Dominion is mediocre offensively and average defensively, but more than anything will be forced to play at Rice's fast pace. Give me the OVER 146!
|01-10-21||Ravens v. Titans OVER 54||20-13||Loss||-113||140 h 1 m||Show|
40* RAVENS/TITANS NFL STEAMROLLER (OVER 54)
I got no problem taking the OVER 54 in Sunday's Wild Card matchup between the Titans and Ravens. These were two of the hottest offenses in the league down the stretch. Baltimore averaged 37.2 ppg in their 5-game winning streak to close out the regular-season. Some will argue that came against a bunch of bad teams. While the Titans are not a bad team, they do field one of the worst defenses in the league.
Fighting for their playoff lives, Tennessee allowed 34.3 ppg and 445 ypg in their last 3 games of the regular-season, giving up a ridiculous 7.3 yards/play in the process.
What you can say about the Ravens late season surge is they didn't play many good offenses in that stretch. However, the only decent one they faced was the Browns and Cleveland put up 42 points and nearly 500 yards against them. Titans scored 30 or more in 6 of their last 7 games. Give me the OVER 54!
|01-06-21||Minnesota v. Michigan UNDER 152||57-82||Win||100||10 h 25 m||Show|
40* MINNESOTA/MICHIGAN NCAAB STEAMROLLER (Under 152)
I'm going to take the UNDER 152 in today's Big Ten matchup between Michigan and Minnesota. I just feel the number here is inflated quite a bit due to the Wolverines coming into this game averaging 77.7 ppg in their 4 Big Ten games. What people will overlook is those 4 games have come against the 4 worst defensive teams in the conference.
Minnesota isn't elite defensively, but they are 5th in the Big Ten in adjusted defensive efficiency and 1st in opponents effective field goal percentage. As for Michigan's defense, they rank 1st in defensive efficiency and 2nd in effective field goal defense. Gophers offense has also not traveled well. In Minnesota two road games this season they scored 65 vs Illinois and 59 against Wisconsin. Give me the UNDER 152!
|01-06-21||VCU v. George Mason OVER 136.5||66-61||Loss||-110||9 h 44 m||Show|
40* VCU/GEORGE MASON NCAAB SLAUGHTER (Over 136.5)
I see a ton of value here with the OVER 136.5. VCU can flat out score the basketball. In the Rams last 5 games they are averaging 85.4 ppg. After giving up 74 to a depleted Dayton team in their last game, I'm confident that VCU will score at least 80 in this one.
That means we need roughly 60 from George Mason to eclipse this total and I think they hit that mark with relative ease on their home floor. VCU is giving up 68.4 ppg on the road and a lot of that is due to the pace they play at. The Patriots will have ample opportunities. As long as they don't shoot like 35% or something, this thing is going to fly over the total. Give me the OVER 136.5!
|01-06-21||Pittsburgh v. Syracuse UNDER 141||63-60||Win||100||7 h 42 m||Show|
40* PITT/SYRACUSE NCAAB NO-BRAINER (Under 141)
These two teams have both been off for almost 3 weeks. Syracuse hasn't played a game since Dec. 19th and Pitt has been off since Dec. 22nd. Both are going to have to shake off a lot of rust on the offensive side of the ball. I also think we are going to see both teams bring it defensively with fresh legs.
Syracuse is definitely playing faster than they have in recent years, but they have also played a pretty easy schedule, which I believe is aiding those numbers. It also has people looking over the defense of these two teams. Both have the ability to really lock down the opposition.
Another thing is that these are two of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country. Pitt ranks 224th in KenPom's 3P% and Syracuse 216th. Pitt is also offensively challenged and are without one of their best players in sophomore guard Justin Champagnie.
In the two meetings last year these two combined for 130 and 121 points. Give me the UNDER 141!
|01-05-21||Missouri v. Mississippi State UNDER 138.5||63-78||Loss||-105||22 h 18 m||Show|
40* MIZZU/MISS ST NCAAB SHARP STAKE (UNDER 138.5)
I'm going to take the UNDER 138.5 in Tuesday's SEC matchup between Missouri and Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are a team that want to slow the game down as much as possible. Mississippi State comes into this game ranked 340th out of 357 D-I teams in adjusted tempo.
The definitely are going to want to slow it down in this one, as they are coming off a double-overtime game against Kentucky on Saturday which saw 5 different players log 34 or more minutes with two guys playing 44 or more. That game with the Wildcats ended up with 151 combined points, but they only combined for 122 (61-61) in regulation.
Missouri just played a game against Arkansas that saw a combined 149 points, but note that the Razorbacks like to play fast, ranking 29th in adjusted tempo. In the game before against Tennessee, which ranks 300th in pace, they saw just 126 combined points. The game before that against Bradley, which ranks 305th in tempo only saw 107 points. Give me the UNDER 138.5!
|01-04-21||West Virginia v. Oklahoma State UNDER 142.5||87-84||Loss||-110||11 h 38 m||Show|
40* OKLAHOMA ST/W VIRGINIA NCAAB STEAMROLLER (Under 142.5)
I like the UNDER 142.5 in Monday's Big 12 matchup that has No. 9 West Virginia going on the road against Oklahoma State. The Mountaineers aren't playing at the same pace as we have seen over the last few years, as they are currently way back at 243rd in adjusted tempo. They kind need to slow it down with their offense, as they are just 254th in effective FG% and 271st in 2P%.
They also make up for their offense with a strong defense, which comes in ranked 13th in the country in adjusted efficiency. On top of that, they just recently had one of their top scorers Oscar Tshiebwe leave the team.
Oklahoma State does prefer to play at a faster pace, but I don't think they will be looking to push the pace as much in this one. That's because the Cowboys have had just 1 day off after playing an OT game at Texas Tech on Saturday. A game that saw 4 different players log at least 33 minutes. Cowboys can also defense, as they are 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Give me the UNDER 142.5!
|01-04-21||Maryland v. Indiana UNDER 136.5||55-63||Win||100||10 h 34 m||Show|
40* INDIANA/MARYLAND NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Under 136.5)
I think this is a great price and spot to take a shot on the UNDER 136.5 in Monday's Big Ten showdown between Indiana and Maryland. These are two teams that aren't exactly looking to push the pace. The Hoosiers rank 299th in adjusted tempo and are playing at the 12th slowest pace of the 14 Big Ten teams. Maryland is even slower, ranking 305th in adjusted tempo and 13th in the conference.
On of the slow pace, you have two teams that are very strong defensively. Maryland is also down a starter with Darryl Morsell sidelined, which really hurts their rotation, as they were basically playing just 7 guys.
UNDER has cashed in 18 of Indiana's last 26 games vs a team with a winning record and the average score in these games is just 133.1 ppg. UNDER is also 10-2 in their last 12 after giving up 80+ in their last game and 12-3 in their last 15 at home after losing 2 of their last 3. Give me the UNDER 136.5!
|01-02-21||Ole Miss v. Indiana OVER 65||Top||26-20||Loss||-110||45 h 43 m||Show|
50* OLE MISS/INDIANA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 65)
Whenever Ole Miss is involved it's almost always going to end up being a high-scoring game and I don't see any reason why this will be any different. I know Indiana lost starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr., but backup Jack Tuttle has had more than enough time to prepare for this game, as Indiana hasn't played since Dec. 5.
More importantly, Tuttle won't have to do it all against this awful Ole Miss defense. Indiana has a big time running back to carry the load in Stevie Scott III, who will be up against a Rebels defense that allows 211 rushing yards/game and 5.4 yards/carry.
As for the Ole Miss offense, few teams have been able to slow down Lane Kiffin's attack. The Rebels averaged 40.7 ppg (allowed 40.3 ppg). They did so with a very balanced attack, as they averaged 218 rushing yards/game and 345 passing yards/game.
The only two offense that the Hoosiers faced that are close to this Ole Miss attack is Penn State and Ohio State and they couldn't really stop either. The Nittany Lions put up 35 points on 488 yards, while the Buckeyes scored 42 and had over 600 yards of total offense. Give me the OVER 65!
|12-30-20||Grizzlies v. Celtics UNDER 221||107-126||Loss||-109||9 h 9 m||Show|
40* GRIZZLIES/CELTICS NBA SHARP STAKE (Under 221)
I just don't see tonight's game between the Grizzlies and Celtics getting into the 220s. On one side you have a Memphis team that is going to be without their best player in star point guard Ja Morant. Not to mention they are still missing two other key pieces in Justice Winslow and Jaren Jackson Jr. I know they scored 116 in their last game against the Nets after Morant went down early, but Brooklyn sat their two stars in Durant and Irving.
As for Boston, the Celtics just played a massive a huge game at Indiana last night. A game Boston desperately wanted after losing their last two, including the game before at Indiana by 1-point. Celtics had to use a ton of energy up to rally for that win last night as they trailed by double-digits going into the 4th quarter. I just don't see the energy being there for Boston on no rest. They certainly aren't going to be looking to push the tempo. Give me the UNDER 221.5!
|12-29-20||Bulls v. Wizards OVER 234||115-107||Loss||-110||10 h 9 m||Show|
40* BULLS/WIZARDS NBA SHARP STAKE (Over 234)
I got no problem playing the OVER with the high total in Tuesday's NBA matchup between the Wizards and Bulls. This is the ideal matchup for a high-scoring game, as we have two teams that like to push the pace and are not good defensively. Both are on a day of rest, so their legs should be fresh. They also both turn it over a decent amount, so both offenses should get a lot of quick easy scores in transition.
Bulls are 23rd in the league in defensive efficiency, while the Wizards are sitting at 26th. Chicago is 2nd in the league in pace behind only the Warriors and Washington is 3rd. Bulls have allowed 124 or more points in each of their 3 games so far, including 129 to the Warriors who are dead last right now in offensive efficiency. Wizards aren't much better, giving up 121 ppg. Give me the OVER 234!
|12-29-20||Texas A&M v. LSU OVER 141||54-77||Loss||-110||10 h 45 m||Show|
40* TEXAS A&M/LSU NCAAB STEAMROLLER (Over 141)
I look for LSU and Texas A&M to easily eclipse the total of 141 in tonight's SEC matchup. This LSU team is an offensive juggernaut. The Tigers rank in the Top 10 in both adjusted offensive efficiency (6th) and effective FG% (10). They also are Top 50 in the country in pace. LSU has scored at least 81 points in each of their 6 games.
I feel the value stems here from the fact that Texas A&M comes in allowing just 60.7 ppg, but I'm not buying that as a sign that this Aggies team is elite defensively. I think it's just more of who they have played and that's a bunch of bad teams. Texas A&M's strength of schedule ranks 315th, as the only team they have played in the Top 140 is TCU and they gave up 73 to the Horned Frogs.
I know the Aggies scored just 55 in that loss to TCU, but LSU is not a great defensive team and tend to give up quite a bit of points. They have given up 81 to SIU Edwardsville and 80 to Nicholls State. They also allowed 85 to St. Louis. I just think there's a high probability here that both teams surpass 70 points. Give me the OVER 141!
|12-28-20||Bills v. Patriots UNDER 47||38-9||Push||0||9 h 28 m||Show|
40* BILLS/PATRIOTS NFL SHARP STAKE (Under 47)
I like the UNDER 47 between the Bills and Patriots on Monday Night Football. These two teams only combined for 45 in the first meeting and that was with 17 points being scored in the 4th quarter. It was a 14-6 game with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter.
I know the Patriots are completely out of it, but I don't see them laying down at home on MNF against a division rival. On top of that, Belichick's defensive mastermind has been a thorn for Buffalo's Josh Allen. In Allen's 4 starts against the Pats the Bills have only averaged 15.8 ppg and that dips down to 14.5 ppg in two games at New England. He's only completed 50.4% of his attempts with an average of 183.0 ypg (3-6 TD-INT ratio).
On the flip side of this, you have an anemic New England offense led by Cam Newton. The Pats really don't offer much in the passing game. I expect them to try and ugly up this game by running it a lot and keeping Allen and the Bills offense off the field. Either way, hard to expect a lot out of this offense, which has scored just 15 points in their last two games combined. Give me the UNDER 47!
|12-28-20||Michigan State v. Minnesota UNDER 157.5||56-81||Win||100||10 h 9 m||Show|
40* MICHIGAN ST/MINNESOTA NCAAB NO-BRAINER (Under 157.5)
While I would have loved to get the opening number of 160, I still see a ton of value here with the UNDER at 157.5. Really I think anything over 150 is worth a play. With the spread right around 2.5 points this total is calling for a final score of like 80-77. That's a ton of points for two teams playing on just two days of rest.
Not only should the lack of time off lead to a slower tempo, you also got to think Michigan State is going to really come out fired up on the defensive side after starting out 0-2 in Big Ten play. As for Minnesota this feels like a bit of a flat spot coming off a huge upset win at home against No. 4 Iowa in overtime. Their star player Marcus Carr played 43 minutes in that game with 3 others logging 30+ minutes.
In last year's two meetings between these two teams they combined for 132 and 122 total points and you have to go back to the 2014-15 campaign to find the last time these two teams combined for more than 150 points. Give me the UNDER 157.5!
|12-27-20||Falcons v. Chiefs OVER 52.5||14-17||Loss||-113||17 h 31 m||Show|
40* FALCONS/CHIEFS NFL STEAMROLLER (Over 52.5)
I see quite a bit of value here with the OVER 52.5 between the Chiefs and Falcons. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense are really clicking in the 2nd half of the season and should be in for a big day here against an Atlanta defense that is giving up 6.3 yards/play on the season.
The even bigger key is that the Falcons aren't a team that's going to try to run the ball and play keep away from the Chiefs offense. Matt Ryan and company will take the challenge head on and try to go score-for-score with KC. Something they are very capable of doing, as this is far from a dominant Chiefs defense. KC also does a really poor job of putting pressure on opposing QBs so Ryan is going to have time to attack the Chiefs secondary down the field.
OVER is 11-3 in the Chiefs last 14 games in the 2nd half of the season vs a team that is giving up 5.65 or more yards/play (average combined score in these games is 63.5 points) and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 at home vs teams who average 235 or more passing yards/game (average score in this situation is 61.3 points). Give me the OVER 52.5!
|12-25-20||Vikings v. Saints OVER 50.5||33-52||Win||100||28 h 3 m||Show|
40* VIKINGS/SAINTS NFL SHARP STAKE (Over 50.5)
I'm going to take the OVER 50.5 in Friday's NFL matchup on Christmas Day. I just think we are going to see quite a bit of scoring from both teams. Minnesota has a laundry list of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. That front 7 they are going to send out will look nothing like what they had hoped to start the year.
I think that's a big edge for Drew Brees and the Saints. While New Orleans is down some receivers, they are going to want to get this offense going before the playoffs. They should be able to run at will, plus Brees should be able to dink and dunk with those backs against a bunch of inexperienced linebackers.
Not to mention we could see absolutely no effort from Minnesota on defense, as they just had their playoff hopes all but crashed in last week's loss to the Bears.
As for the Vikings offense, they got some weapons to work with and few are better a meaningless stats than Kirk Cousins. They could also catch a big break here with NO's best pass rusher Trey Hendrickson questionable, as well as free safety Marcus Williams (really no reason for Saints to rush either guy back). Give me the OVER 50.5!
|12-24-20||Hawaii v. Houston OVER 59.5||Top||28-14||Loss||-105||5 h 43 m||Show|
50* HAWAII/HOUSTON NEW MEXICO BOWL TOP PLAY (Over 59.5)
I'm going to take the OVER 59.5 between Hawaii and Houston on Christmas Eve. I just don't see either team putting up of a fight on the defensive end. That's because I don't see either defense being able to slow down the run game.
Hawaii hasn't been able to stop the run all season. The Rainbow Warriors go into this game allowing 231 rushing yards/game and 5.4 yards/carry. Houston is slightly better, allowing only 173 yards/game and 4.3 yards/carry, but they will be without two of their best players in linebacker Grant Stuard and defensive end Payton Turner. Stuard is a massive loss as he's the one guy that you can always count on being around the ball. His 61 tacklers are 32 more than the next best player on this team.
I know wind could be a bit of a factor, but I don't think it will be enough to keep these offenses from putting up points. When you can run the ball, your chances of finishing drives with TDs and not FGs goes up dramatically. I also think both teams are going to have to sell out on the run, which should leave some big opportunities in the pass game. Give me the OVER 59.5!
|12-23-20||Northwestern v. Indiana UNDER 140.5||74-67||Loss||-113||11 h 14 m||Show|
40* NORTHWESTERN/INDIANA NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Under 140.5)
I think we are getting some big time value with the UNDER at the total of 140.5. Indiana is a team that's built on their defense. They had 5 quality opponents in non-conference in Providence, Texas, Stanford, FSU and Butler. The most they allowed in any of those game in regulation was 63. They also failed to score 70 in 3 of the 5. They don't shoot great from deep, are a bad free throw shooting team and don't love to push the pace.
Northwestern is a team that is coming off a shocking 79-65 win against Michigan State at home, but if you watched that game you could see the Spartans weren't ready to play. You can't knock the Wildcats for playing harder, I just don't think it will be as easy offensively for them in their first game away from home against the likes of Indiana.
Defensively I think Northwestern is for real. They are 45th in adjusted efficiency, 3rd in effective field goal% defense and rank in the Top 25 defending both the 2-Pt (11th) and 3-Pt (22nd). They got the guys inside to make it tough on the Hoosiers. Give me the UNDER 140.5!
|12-23-20||Pelicans v. Raptors OVER 228.5||Top||113-99||Loss||-104||9 h 26 m||Show|
50* PELICANS/RAPTORS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 228.5)
I will gladly take the OVER 228.5 in Wednesday's NBA season opener between the Pelicans and Raptors. I feel like these are going to be two of the highest scoring teams in the league this year. Toronto is a team that shot and made a lot of 3's last year and from the looks of it will be shooting it even more. That's pretty evident with them replacing their two big men of Ibaka and Gasol with Aron Baynes. They were jacking up 40+ 3's in the preseason.
As for the Pelicans, the minutes restrictions are off for Zion and this team is built to get up and down the floor with all their youth and athleticism. They also got plenty of guys who shoot from deep. I look for Zion to feast against the small-ball Raptors lineup and for this game to fly past the total. Give me the OVER 228.5!
|12-22-20||Warriors v. Nets OVER 231.5||Top||99-125||Loss||-113||9 h 39 m||Show|
50* WARRIORS/NETS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 231.5)
I think we are going to see the Warriors and Nets fly past the total of 231.5 tonight. Golden State won't have Draymond Green for this game and lost Klay Thompson for the year. The loss of Thompson is big, but his absence will be more felt on defense than offense. I don't see the offense having any trouble to score with the trio of Steph Curry, Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre Jr. These 3 are going to shoot and make a ton of 3-pointers this year.
As for the Nets, we finally get to see the dynamic duo of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. These are two of the most skilled offensive players in the league. While Durant is a solid defender, Irving is a major liability on that side of the ball.
You also have to factor in all the new pieces both teams are working in compared to last year. The lack of chemistry usually impacts the defense a lot more than the offense. I wouldn't be surprised if both teams scored 120+ points. Give me the OVER 231.5!
|12-21-20||North Texas v. Appalachian State UNDER 68||28-56||Loss||-110||1 h 22 m||Show|
40* N TEXAS/APP ST MYRTLE BEACH BOWL VEGAS INSIDER (Under 68)
I think the total has climbed up enough that the value is now on the UNDER at 68. North TExas has been a team that has found themselves in a lot of high-scoring games, but I just don't think this game will be one of them. The Mean Green lost their biggest offensive threat in wide out Jaelon Darden, who had 74 catches for 1,190 yards and 19 TDs. No other player had more than 25 receptions and the rest of the team accounted for a mere 6 receiving scores.
Appalachian State is also a team that wants to run the ball and dominate the time of possession. While their figures to be some big holes and long runs for the Mountaineers against this North Texas defense, I still think we stay below the number. Keep in mind App State has a good defense, so it may just be the Mountaineers who are scoring and you need both teams to hit a total like this. Give me the UNDER 68!
|12-19-20||Stanford v. UCLA OVER 59||48-47||Win||100||29 h 55 m||Show|
40* STANFORD/UCLA NCAAF STEAMROLLER (Over 59)
I look for UCLA and Stanford to have little to no problem hitting the 60-point mark on Saturday, which makes the OVER 59 an easy play for me. Chip Kelly finally has the Bruins offense performing up to what we would expect, as they come in averaging 33.5 ppg behind a very balanced attack. UCLA is averaging 220 yards/game and 4.9 yards/carry on the ground and 230 yards/game with a 64% completion rate in the passing game.
That high-powered offense will be up against a Stanford defense that has really struggled. While they have held each of their last 3 opponents under 30 points, those 3 were all bad offensive teams in Cal, Washington and Oregon State. The Cardinal gave up 35 in each of their first two games against Oregon and and Colorado and I'm confident they give up at least that in this one.
UCLA just allowed 43 in their last game to USC and have also given up 38 to Oregon and 48 to Colorado, so it's not like the Bruins are much better on the defensive end. Stanford's offense has been able to move the ball with Mills at quarterback and he should have a big game here against a soft UCLA secondary. Give me the OVER 59!
|12-19-20||Boise State v. San Jose State OVER 55.5||20-34||Loss||-110||27 h 30 m||Show|
40* BOISE ST/SAN JOSE ST NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Over 55.5)
I really wanted to take the touchdown here with San Jose State, but I think the much safer play is on the OVER 55.5. For starters, when these two played last year, they combined for 94 points in a 52-42 win for Boise State. Both teams racked up over 460 yards of total offense.
San Jose State comes in having scored at least 28 points in each of their last 5 games and all we need here is for both teams to hit 28 points to cash the over. Boise State has scored 40 or more in 4 of their last 6 and are averaging 36.2 ppg on the season, scoring almost 11 points/game more than what their opponents give up. So while the Spartans only give up 17.5 ppg, I don't think they are slowing this Broncos offense down. Give me the OVER 55.5!
|12-14-20||Ravens v. Browns UNDER 46.5||Top||47-42||Loss||-115||8 h 20 m||Show|
50* RAVENS/BROWNS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Under 46.5)
I love the UNDER in tonight's Monday Night Football matchup between AFC North rivals Browns and Ravens. I think we are getting value here with the UNDER after Cleveland's game last week against the Titans, which saw a combined 76 points in the Browns 41-35 win.
I know Baker Mayfield has looked great here of late, but let's not overlook the fact that his last two games have come against two of the worst pass defenses in the league in the Jags and Titans. I mean he was throwing to wide open guys against Tennessee. Baltimore isn't going to give them those easy looks and most importantly the Ravens have the front 7 that can contain the Browns ground game.
The other big thing to note is that these two combined for 44 back in Week 1 with Baltimore scoring 38. With much colder conditions, a lot more tape on each team and winds expected to be blowing at close to 15 mph, I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to score 20 points. Give me the UNDER 46.5!
|12-14-20||Rutgers v. Maryland UNDER 137.5||74-60||Win||100||6 h 58 m||Show|
40* MARYLAND/RUTGERS NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Under 137.5)
I think we are getting a great price with the UNDER between Rutgers and Maryland. This will be the Big Ten opener for both teams and I'm expecting a big time effort from both sides. Maryland comes in off an ugly 67-51 loss at Clemson. While their stingy defense did their part, the offense really struggled in their first game against a quality defense.
It doesn't get any easier for the Terps against the Scarlet Knights, who are one of the best defensive teams in the country. Just look at Rutgers last game against Syracuse. They held the Orange to 69 points. The very next game for Syracuse they put up 101 on BC.
Both teams have scored a lot in non-conference, but it's just a different beast in Big Ten play. Big thing to keep in mind With Rutgers strong offensive numbers is they have played every game at home. Keep in mind the Scarlet Knights won just 2 road games all of last year and one of those was an OT win against Purdue in the final game of the season. Give me the UNDER 137.5!
|12-12-20||Georgia v. Missouri OVER 54||Top||49-14||Win||100||23 h 2 m||Show|
50* GEORGIA/MIZZU NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 54)
I'm a bit shocked the total here is this low, as I think both of these teams can and will be able to put points on the board this Saturday. This is not the same Georgia offense that we saw early in the year now that J.T. Daniels is at quarterback.
Daniels made his first start two games ago against a good Mississippi State defense and completed 28 of 38 for 401 yards and 4 scores. While he only threw for 139 yards in last weeks game against South Carolina, he only had to attempt 16 passes. They still put up 471 yards, as they racked up 332 rushing yards. In his two games as a starter they are averaging 440 yards, well above their season average of 397.
I see no reason why Georgia won't be able to put up a big number against Missouri's defense. The Tigers just allowed Arkansas to score 48 with 292 rushing yards and 274 passing yards. Really any time this Tigers defense has faced a capable offense they have struggled. They allowed 41 to Florida, 41 to LSU, 38 to Alabama and also 35 to a bad Tennessee offense.
Georgia's defense is good but not elite like it has been or was expected to be this year. Their biggest weakness is stopping the pass and Missouri has racked up 380 passing yards in each of their last two games. I really think both teams will score in the 30s and all we really need is for one to hit this total. Give me the OVER 54!
|12-12-20||Florida v. Florida State UNDER 140||71-83||Loss||-110||13 h 44 m||Show|
40* FLORIDA/FLORIDA ST NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Under 140)
I just think there's a ton a value here with a total of 140 in Saturday's big in-state showdown between Florida and Florida State. If you watched any of the FSU/Indiana game you can see the struggles that this Seminoles team is going to have scoring against teams who can protect the rim and not let them get easy looks down low. They went from scoring 86 in their opener against North Florida to just 62 in regulation against Indiana.
Florida is every bit as good defensively as the Hoosiers, if not better. The Gators come in 17th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and are 11th in the nation in 2-Pt % defense.
Florida has put up some solid offensive numbers to this point, but they have played two teams outside the top 200 in Kenpom in Army and Stetson. They did score 80 against BC, who is currently No. 85, but the Eagles are not a strong defensive team. They gave up 97 to St. John's, 76 to Villanova and 85 to Minnesota.
FSU always seems to have big long and athletic players and this year is no different. Seminoles also are 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 12th in 2-Pt % defense.
Last year these two teams combined for just 114 points and the books completely missed the mark in that one with a total of 135. Give me the UNDER 140!
|12-11-20||Nevada v. San Jose State OVER 58.5||20-30||Loss||-110||31 h 53 m||Show|
40* NEVADA/SAN JOSE ST NCAAF LATE NIGHT BAILOUT (Over 58.5)
I like the over quite a bit in Friday's late night action out of the Mountain West that has two of the league's best facing off in San Jose State and Nevada. This number might seem high to some given the defensive numbers these two teams boast, but so much of those great defensive numbers are a result of a lot of bad offenses they have faced.
I think both offenses are going to be able to have success in this game. Nevada comes in averaging 31.3 ppg and 442 yards/game with a healthy 6.6 yards/play. San Jose State is averaging 30.4 ppg, 419 ypg and 6.5 yards/play.
Both of these teams can really light up teams with their passing attacks and last year both teams threw all over each other. San Jose State racked up 405 passing yards against Nevada and the Wolf Pack weren't far behind with 352 passing yards. The two teams combined for 79 points with a very similar total (61) to what we see in this meeting. Give me the OVER 58.5!
|12-11-20||Nebraska v. Creighton OVER 150.5||74-98||Win||100||10 h 5 m||Show|
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 150.5)
This game has a frantic up and down pace written all over it. Both Nebraska and Creighton want to push the tempo and waste no time getting a shot up. Both teams rank in the Top 25 in terms of average possession length. Creighton ranks 23rd at 14.6 and Nebraska is 9th at 14.1.
I really think this favors the Bluejays, who not only like to play fast, but are extremely efficient on the offensive end. Creighton is 7th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 17th in effective FG% and 4th in 2-PT%. Nebraska isn't quite on that level, but with number of possessions that each team figures to have, we should have no problem here eclipsing 150 points. Give me the OVER 150.5.
|12-08-20||Creighton v. Kansas UNDER 151||72-73||Win||100||6 h 13 m||Show|
40* CREIGHTON/KANSAS NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Under 151)
I just think there's a lot of value here on the UNDER 151 in Tuesday's big matchup between No. 5 Kansas and No. 8 Creighton. I think the number here on the total is a bit inflated given that the Jayhawks come in averaging 80.6 ppg and the Bluejays are even better at 85.3 ppg.
Thing you have to realize with Creighton is they haven't played anyone of significance. Their 3 wins are against North Dakota State, Nebraska-Omaha and Kennesaw State. The only one of those 3 that rank in the Top 200 is ND State (No. 175) and the Bluejays only scored 69 points in their victory against them.
Kansas allowed 102 to Gonzaga in their opener, but have really locked up opponents defensively since that game. Jayhawks come in ranked 5th in the country in defensive adjusted efficiency. Creighton is also a good defensive team, ranking 50th in adjusted defensive efficiency and in the Top 50 in both 3-Pt % and 2-Pt % defense. Give me the UNDER 151!
|12-05-20||Boston College v. Virginia OVER 54.5||Top||32-43||Win||100||23 h 54 m||Show|
50* BC/VIRGINIA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 54.5)
I think these two are going to fly past the total of 54.5. Both of these teams have the ability to put up points. Virginia has scored at least 31 in each of their last 3 games. BC has scored 31 or more in each of their last two.
Not only can both teams score, but both teams are pretty good at giving up points. The Cavaliers have allowed 38 or more in 4 games this season. The Eagles have allowed 27 or more in 6 of their last 7 games. They only exception coming against low life Syracuse. I think there's a good chance both teams score 30 in this one and we don't even need that. 28-27 would do the trick.
OVER is also 9-2 in Virginia's last 11 home games and the average combined score in these 11 games is 63.6. Almost a full 10 points more than the number we are playing. Give me the OVER 54.5!
|12-05-20||Nebraska v. Purdue OVER 62.5||37-27||Win||100||19 h 26 m||Show|
40* PURDUE/NEBRASKA NCAAF O/U STEAMROLLER (Over 62.5)
There's not much at stake for either of these teams. Nebraska comes in at 1-4 in what has been an embarrassment of a season for the Cornhuskers. Making matters worse, they are coming off a crushing loss to rival Iowa. It's not much better at Purdue, who after starting 2-0 is now 2-3 and off a loss at home to Rutgers.
Simply put, there's no motivation for either team to get up for this game and I think we could see both defenses not all that interested. At the same time, there's no reason to hold anything back offensively and both of these offenses should be able to play to their strengths in this game.
History is also on our side. OVER is a perfect 8-0 in Nebraska's last 8 games as a road dog of 3 points or less and 13-1 in Purdue's last 14 as a home favorite of 3-points or less. Give me the OVER 62.5!
|12-04-20||Jacksonville State v. Florida International OVER 145||70-74||Loss||-110||9 h 48 m||Show|
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 145)
I was shocked to see this total at less than 150. FIU can score and score in a hurry with their ability to torch teams from long distance. It's early, but you have to take notice to the fact that FIU leads the country in 3-Pointers attempted per field goal attempted at 61.2% (D-1 average is 37.5%). Not only that they rank 2nd in effective FG% and #22 in 3-Point%. Jacksonville State will be happy to play this style as they are 15th in 3PA/FGA at 50.6%. There's a chance both teams have an off night, but if we just get average shooting from these two, this thing is going past this total. Give me the OVER 145!
|12-01-20||Oklahoma State v. Marquette OVER 147.5||70-62||Loss||-115||9 h 37 m||Show|
40* OKLAHOMA ST/MARQUETTE NCAAB SHARP STAKE (OVER 147.5)
Both of these teams want to run and gun. Oklahoma State is averaging 80.0 ppg and are attempting 24 3-point shots/game, making an average of 8. Marquette is at 87.0 ppg with 22 3-point attempts and 9 makes per game. Only reason Marquette games haven't been higher scoring is they have played two dud offenses in Ark-Pine Bluff and E Illinois. Both shot worse than 28% from the field against the Golden Eagles.
Similar story two Oklahoma State, who has played a couple of poor offenses in Texas-Arlington and Texas Southern. I just don't think either of these teams will be able to stop the other from scoring and the only reason this total isn't pushing 155 is because of the misleading defensive numbers these two have posted. Give me the OVER 147.5!
|12-01-20||North Carolina v. Stanford OVER 143.5||Top||67-63||Loss||-108||5 h 48 m||Show|
50* UNC/STANFORD NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 143.5)
I'm confident we are going to get a shootout in Tuesday's matchup between North Carolina and Stanford. The Tar Heels come in ranked No. 14 and have looked impressive early on on the offensive side of the ball. As you would expect, UNC wants to play fast and use all that athleticism to their advantage.
I got a feeling the Cardinal will be happy to play up-tempo. They just put up 82 points on Alabama and not many like to play at the frantic pace of the Crimson Tide. Only reason that game didn't get into the 150's was Alabama shot 7 of 29 from deep. I would be shocked if both teams don't eclipse 70 points. This total should be closer to 150. Give me the OVER 143.5!
|11-30-20||Seahawks v. Eagles OVER 48.5||Top||23-17||Loss||-110||9 h 23 m||Show|
50* SEAHAWKS/EAGLES NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 48.5)
I wanted to take Seattle, but I just don't feel like laying a touchdown on the road with this Seahawks team. Seattle has lost each of their last 3 road games, two of which they went off as the favorite.
The good news is, I see a ton of value with the OVER at less than 50. In Seattle's 5 road games 4 have seen a combined score of at least 54 points with 3 going for 63 or more. Only exception was at LA vs the Rams.
It's a combination of how great this Seahawks offense is and how poor the defense has been. There's so much talent across the board with the Seattle offense and I just feel this Eagles defense is better suited to stop the run.
I know Wentz has been awful and there's talk that Hurts is going to get a long look, I think they can get something going here at home against this Seattle defense. Seattle is giving up 30.4 ppg, 450 ypg and 6.5 yards/play on the road this season. Give me the OVER 48.5!
|11-29-20||Chiefs v. Bucs OVER 55.5||27-24||Loss||-118||28 h 19 m||Show|
40* CHIEFS/BUCS NFL SLAUGHTER (Over 55.5)
I don't think there's any reason to overthink this one. I know Brady and the Bucs have had their struggles of late, but I just don't think the Chiefs defense is going to be able to keep them in check. I think we get one of the good games from Tampa Bay's offense.
As for the Chiefs, there's no one getting in the way of Mahomes and that offense right now. Mahomes will be welcoming back Sammy Watkins, giving him a weapon he's really missed the last few weeks. I just really think you can exploit this Bucs defense down the field and that's a recipe for disaster against Mahomes and this offense. I think there's a chance that both teams score into the 30's but we really just need one of the two to go off, as I don't see a scenario where either team scores fewer than 24 points. Play the OVER 55.5!
|11-29-20||Raiders v. Falcons OVER 53.5||Top||6-43||Loss||-110||25 h 12 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 53.5)
I love the OVER 53.5 in Sunday's matchup between the Raiders and Falcons. I don't see a great defensive effort here from Las Vegas after that crushing loss the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. With that said, even in normal circumstances I would be high on this Atlanta offense against this Raiders defense.
While I'm not expecting a great effort defensively, I do think Carr and that Raiders offense will come to play and they too will be up against a deflated defense in the Falcons, who couldn't stop Taysom Hill and the Saints last week.
These are really two identical teams. Vegas is scoring 28.6 ppg and giving up 27.6 ppg. Atlanta is scoring 25.2 ppg and allowing 27.5 ppg. I think both teams hit the 30-point mark. Not only do we have ideal conditions with the game indoors, but these non-confernece matchups always seem to be a little higher scoring, as there's just not much familiarity with the two teams.
Speaking to that, OVER is 7-0 last 2 seasons in non-conference games involving the Raiders. OVER is also 33-18 in Atlanta's last 51 after a road loss by 14 or more. Give me the OVER 53.5!
|11-29-20||Panthers v. Vikings OVER 51||27-28||Win||100||25 h 6 m||Show|
40* PANTHERS/VIKINGS NFL SHARP STAKE (Over 51)
I like the OVER 51 in today's matchup between the Panthers and Vikings. I know Carolina won't have McCaffrey and Thielen is out for the Vikings, but there's more than enough weapons on these two offenses to expose the poor talent these two have on the defensive side of the ball.
Carolina only managed 20 against the Lions last week with P.J. Walker at quarterback, but that was his first start and they should have had a lot more, as Walker threw two interceptions in the endzone. Bridgewater will be back and should expose a bad Vikings secondary.
Vikings should be able to ride Cook and rookie wideout Jefferson to a lot of points. Don't be fooled by the shoutout from the Panthers defense last week against Detroit. Lions had all their key guys out and Stafford was playing at like 70%. The week before they gave up 46 to the Bucs.
I think at least one of these teams hit 30 points and both should score no fewer than 20, which makes 51 a very easy number to hit. Give me the OVER 51!
|11-28-20||Georgia v. South Carolina OVER 49||Top||45-16||Win||100||27 h 37 m||Show|
50* GEORGIA/S CAROLINA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 49)
I really think people are sleeping on the Bulldogs right now. I think the perception is that because Georgia no longer has a clear path to the SEC East title and thus the playoffs, this team doesn't care.
I get that expectations are sky-high with this Bulldogs' program, but I don't that this was like previous years in terms of hype. I mean Georgia didn't have their guy at QB to start the year. If J.T. Daniels (USC transfer) would have been ready from the start I think this team would have beat Florida and who knows against Alabama.
Daniels finally got on the field last week and was spectacular, throwing for 401 yards and 4 TDs against Mississippi State. I get the Bulldogs aren't a great team, but they have put up pretty good defensive numbers this season. Either way, 400 yards and 4 TDs is impressive.
I see no reason to not keep letting Daniels chuck the ball around the field. There's nothing to lose for Georgia at this point. I really wouldn't be shocked at all if the Bulldogs flirted with this total on their own. South Carolina has allowed 48 or more points in 3 of their last 4. Give me the OVER 49!
|11-28-20||North Texas v. Arkansas OVER 142.5||54-69||Loss||-110||7 h 42 m||Show|
40* N TEXAS/ARKANSAS CBB STEAMROLLER (Over 142.5)
Don't be fooled by the fact that Arkansas only brings back 1 starter. The Razorbacks have a great coach in Eric Musselman and have went out and retooled the roster with 6 transfers and 4 freshman. They put up a 142 points in their opener against Mississippi Valley State. They didn't just feast inside. Arkansas shot 20 of 40 (50%) from deep.
Clearly this team wants to run and gun this season. While that's not quite the style of North Texas, I think the Mean Green are more than capable of playing at a faster pace. They too opened against Miss Valley State. They scored 116 and made 21 3-pointers. North Texas has 4 of their top 6 scorers back and one of the best players in C-USA in senior Javion Hamlet.
I think these two will easily hit the 150 mark. Give me the OVER 142.5!
|11-20-20||Purdue v. Minnesota OVER 59.5||Top||31-34||Win||100||102 h 41 m||Show|
50* PURDUE/MINNESOTA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 59.5)
We will take our chances here with Minnesota and Purdue combining for at least 60 points in Friday's Big Ten action. While each of the last two games for the Gophers went UNDER, one was a result of their opponent not being able to score (Illinois) and last week it was Iowa's defense taking away the running game, as Minnesota managed just 7 points after scoring 40+ in each of their previous two games.
The Gophers offense is much better when they run the ball, but note that last year they scored 38 on Purdue with just 92 rushing yards, as Tanner Morgan threw for 396 yards and 4 scores. Boilermakers had 31 points of their own, as the two combined for 69 points.
OVER is also 37-17 in the Gophers last 54 at home off a game where they failed to cover and a dominant 22-8 in their last 30 as a home dog of 7 or less. Give me the OVER 59.5!
|11-18-20||Northern Illinois v. Ball State UNDER 62||Top||25-31||Win||100||28 h 5 m||Show|
50* N ILLINOIS/BALL ST *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Under 62)
I know these are two defenses that have struggled to keep points off the scoreboard. Northern Illinois is giving up 44.4 ppg and Ball State is allowing 34.5 ppg. I just think the numbers are a bit inflated for Northern Illinois.
The Huskies combined for 79 points in their opener against Buffalo, losing 49-30. However, the Bulls scored 3 defensive touchdowns. A game that was just 21-16 at the half turned into 49-16 in less than 20 minutes on the clock.
In last week's game against Central Michigan, it was 26-0 going into the 4th quarter before the two teams put up 24 to end up at 50.
Given how much Northern Illinois struggles to score, I just don't see these two teams getting to 63 unless there's a bunch of crazy scores.
Also, both of these teams like to run the ball and both offenses might be even more inclined to run in this game. There's expected to be crosswinds approaching 20 mph. This should help limit the possessions with fewer big plays thru the air. Give me the UNDER 62!
|11-17-20||Buffalo v. Bowling Green OVER 57.5||42-17||Win||100||9 h 12 m||Show|
40* BUFFALO/BOWLING GREEN NCAAF STEAMROLLER (OVER 57.5)
Buffalo could hit this total on their own. We did just see Bowling Green give up 62 last week to Kent State. I don't know if they will hit the 60-point mark, but I do see them scoring at the minimum of 40.
Buffalo won't even need to throw it to score 40. In 2 games, Bowling Green has allowed 605 rushing yards. They gave up 310 to Toledo and 295 to Kent State. They are allowing 5.5 yards/carry and will be facing a Bulls offense that is putting up 194 ypg and 5 yards/carry.
Key here is that I think the Falcons can put up some points. I think Buffalo's defense is pretty good, but defense is all about effort and I just wonder if they will bring it for this game. They laid it all on the line last week against the defending MAC champ in Miami (OH) and have a monster game on deck next week against Kent State.
I think we can get a big play or two early from BG to get some points on the board for them and then add a few more in garbage time to push this well past the number. Give me the OVER 57.5
|11-13-20||Iowa v. Minnesota OVER 58||Top||35-7||Loss||-106||79 h 2 m||Show|
50* IOWA/MINNESOTA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 58)
I firmly believe that Minnesota is going to be a great OVER team this year. I took the OVER 65 in their game last week at Illinois and it didn't cash, but they did get to 55 points and it was against arguably the worst offense in the Big Ten.
Gophers did their part scoring 41 points on 541 total yards of offense. Minnesota is now averaging 36.3 ppg, 444 ypg and 6.3 yards/play. This is no shocker. This team averaged 34.1 ppg last year and returned 9 starters.
It's the defense where they lost a bunch of talent and it showed in their first two games, as they gave up 49 to Michigan at home and 45 to Maryland on the road. I don't think it magically got better against Illinois. The Illini are just that bad offensively and they were missing some key guys.
Iowa's offense put up 49 last week, but did only score 20 in their first two games against Purdue and Northwestern. I just think the Hawkeyes are going to be able to do as they please against Minnesota. Iowa's o-line should have their way and that's going to lead to a lot of big runs and plays down the field.
As for the Hawkeyes defense. It's your typical Kirk Ferentz defense, but I don't think it's quite as good as we have seen the last couple of years. They should also open up/relax a little if the offense is able to move the ball at will. Give me the OVER 58!
|11-09-20||Patriots v. Jets UNDER 41.5||30-27||Loss||-107||11 h 39 m||Show|
40* PATRIOTS/JETS MNF VEGAS INSIDER (Under 41.5)
This game has a defensive battle written all over it, there's just not a lot to get excited about with either offense in this game.
Cam Newton has been a massive disappointment since returning from Covid. In 3 starts his highest passing output is 174 yards. He has not thrown a single TD pass and has thrown 5 interceptions. He's also been sacked 7 times.
I expect Belichick to come into this game looking to establish the run. He knows his defense will be able to slow down that awful Jets offense. Thing is, Jets have a decent run defense and should get a boost playing at home on MNF against a team you hate to the core. As long as the offense doesn't turn it over a bunch, I think that NY defense will hold its own.
The Jets haven't scored more than 10 points in 4 straight games. It hasn't been much better for New England, which had scored 12 or fewer in 3 straight before scoring a mere 21 last week at Buffalo. It wouldn't surprise me at all if both teams failed to score 20. Give me the UNDER 41.5!
|11-07-20||Clemson v. Notre Dame UNDER 52||40-47||Loss||-109||99 h 58 m||Show|
40* CLEMSON/NOTRE DAME NCAAF SHARP STAKE (UNDER 52)
I contemplated taking Notre Dame and the points in this one, but I just don't trust the Irish enough in big games to pull the trigger. With that said, I was going to be on the UNDER either way here, as I think this game has a defensive battle written all over it.
A lot of people might not see it that way after Clemson just gave up 28 points in a near upset loss at home against BC. Thing is the Eagles have a special talent at quarterback in Phil Jurkovec. Ironically enough, Jurkovec transfer to BC from ND. I think he's better than Ian Book.
I also think the attention and focus will be at a much different level for Clemson's defense against Notre Dame than it was against Boston College. Keep in mind the defense picked up it's game in the 2nd half against the Eagles, as BC was shutout in the 2nd half.
Not only do I think it will be tough for Notre Dame to score, but without Trevor Lawrence this Clemson offense is not the same. I know D.J. Uiagalelei played well against BC and is highly touted, but this is not an easy spot for a true freshman on the road against a Notre Dame defense that is light years ahead of what he just faced in BC. Give me the UNDER 52!
|11-07-20||Baylor v. Iowa State UNDER 51.5||31-38||Loss||-110||122 h 27 m||Show|
40* BAYLOR/IOWA ST NCAAF SLAUGHTER (Under 51.5)
I really like the UNDER in this one. I think Baylor is an ideal UNDER team. The Bears have a decent defense and an offense that struggles to put up points. If you take away the 47 points (had two non-offensive TDs) against Kansas in their opener, Baylor is averaging just 20.0 ppg in their 3 other conference games.
As bad as 20.0 ppg looks, it could easily be worse. They had just 7 points before scoring in the final minutes of regulation against West Virginia. Against Texas they trailed 27-3 going into the 4th and added two garbage TD's for a final of just 27-16. Last week against TCU they trailed 33-7 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd before scoring 16 meaningless points to lose 33-23.
Iowa State has a better defense than all 3 of those teams and this Cyclones team can't afford to overlook the Bears, as they need to win out to ensure a spot in the Big 12 title game. A shutout is not out of the question, but I'm confident ISU can hold Baylor to 17 or less.
Let's just say they some how happen to get to 17, Cyclones would need to score 35 for us to lose. Possible, but like I said, Baylor's got a decent defense. Mother nature may also help, as winds are expected be approaching 20 mph. Give me the UNDER 51.5!
|11-07-20||Minnesota v. Illinois OVER 60.5||41-14||Loss||-110||119 h 9 m||Show|
40* MINNESOTA/ILLINOIS NCAAF STEAMROLLER (OVER 60.5)
Unless the books put this total north of 70, there's a good chance I was going to be on the OVER. In fact, I'll probably be on the OVER in Minnesota games quite a bit this year.
There were concerns that the Gophers defense would take a step back with just 4 starters returning from last year's team. They appear to have not just taken a step back, but fallen off a cliff.
I think their defense got a pass in their opener when they gave up 49 points and 478 yards because their opponent was Michigan. Then they allowed 45 points and 675 yards to Maryland, as the Terps put up 281 on the ground and 394 thru the air.
Note that's the same Maryland offense that could only must 3 points and 207 yards in their opener against Northwestern.
I know Illinois' offense isn't great and starting QB Brandon Peters is not going to play, but i'm confident the Illini will be able to move the ball against this Gophers defense. Backup quarterback Coran Taylor had 273 yards and 2 scores in place of Peters in their last game against Purdue, so I'm not so sure the drop off is significant, if at all.
On the flip side of this, Minnesota's got some talent on offense and should be able to score 30+ with relative ease against this Illinois defense. Give me the OVER 60.5!
|11-07-20||West Virginia v. Texas OVER 54||13-17||Loss||-111||21 h 10 m||Show|
40* W VIRGINIA/TEXAS NCAAF MASSACRE (Over 54)
I like the value here with the OVER 54 between Texas and West Virginia. The Longhorns have proven to be an OVER team, as 5 of their 6 games have gone OVER the mark. The only exception coming against Baylor, who has one of the worst offenses of any Power 5 program.
West Virginia is not an offensive juggernaut, but are scoring a very respectable 33.0 ppg and averaging 465 yards/game. They got one of the better QBs no one is talking about in Jarret Doege. He's completing 64% of his attempts with 11-3 TD-INT ratio. I don't see Texas' defense slowing them down.
The Mountaineers defense has been great early and were sharp last week in a blowout win over K-State, but I don't see them slowing down this high-powered Texas offense on the road. W Virginia is giving up just 19.8 ppg, but have played the 3 worst offenses in the conference in Baylor, Kansas and K-State.
I know they didn't have a ton of yards, but you can't ignore the 41-pints Texas just put up against an even strong defense in Oklahoma State. Give me the OVER 54!
|11-01-20||49ers v. Seahawks OVER 54||27-37||Win||100||76 h 33 m||Show|
40* 49ERS/SEAHAWKS NFL DESTROYER (OVER 54)
It's hard to not play the OVER at less than 55 with Seattle. I know this is a division game, but this Seahawks defense is really bad. They are giving up 479.2 yards/game. That's dead last in the NFL. The next worst is the Jaguars at 424.4 ypg.
If it wasn't for the offense being as good as they are, I think this Seattle team would be viewed very differently. Even with how good the offense is, the Seahawks should have lost to the Vikings at home and easily could have lost to the Pats, Cowboys and Vikings.
Basically, the Seahawks have to score 30 every game, because that's what their defense allows. I don't see this game against the 49ers being any different. What Kyle Shanahan is doing with what he has to work with on offense is something special. The guy is just a step ahead of most other OCs.
As for the 49ers defense, I think they have looked great in their last two games. I also think they played a Pats offense that has no clue what they are doing right now and a very overrated Rams offense. Their other 4 opponents since Week 1 when they lost all those guys are the Dolphins, Eagles, Giants and Jets.
They just haven't been up against anything like Russell Wilson and this Seattle offense. Ryan Fitzpatrick torched this 49ers defense for 350 yards and 3 scores. I see Wilson putting up similar numbers. Give me the OVER 54!
|10-31-20||Mississippi State v. Alabama UNDER 64.5||0-41||Win||100||124 h 46 m||Show|
40* MISS ST/ALABAMA NCAAF KNOCKOUT (Under 64.5)
I don't play a ton of UNDERS in college football, but I really like this one between Mississippi State and Alabama. This Bulldogs offense is a joke. No clue why LSU didn't do it, but teams are simply rushing 3 and playing 8 in coverage against the Bulldogs. With an offensive line that can't block 3, there's nothing Mississippi State can do. They have scored 30 total points in their 3 games since putting up 44 in the opener against LSU.
It's not going to get any better against Alabama's defense. It wouldn't shock me at all if Mississippi State failed to score.
On the flip side of this, Mississippi State has a defense that has been playing extremely well. Bulldogs are only giving up 26.8 ppg and 296 ypg. They are allowing just 2.9 yards/carry and 4.6 yards/play.
I know that means nothing against Alabama, but this is now a Crimson Tide offense that no longer has one of their best receivers in Jaylen Waddle.
Think about it, Alabama can win 50-14 and that's not enough. I already said I don't think Mississippi State is getting to 14. I also don't think Alabama gets to 50. Give me the UNDER 64.5!
|10-31-20||Virginia Tech v. Louisville OVER 66||42-35||Win||100||97 h 33 m||Show|
40* VA TECH/LOUISVILLE NCAAF MASSACRE (Over 66)
I don't see a whole lot of defense being played in this one, as both of these offenses should have their way.
Prior to scoring just 16-points at Wake Forest last week, Va Tech had scored 38 or more in each of their first 4 with 3 going for 40 or more. They still had nearly 450 total yards in that game. They had 210 rushing yards, which was their lowest output all year. They are averaging 292 rushing yards/game and 6.5 yards/carry.
Louisville's defense has played better the last two games, but in both of those games they gave up over 230 rushing yards. Also two weeks ago the game against Notre Dame they were aided big time by strong winds and FSU isn't that great and were primed for a letdown off that big win over UNC. This is still the same defense that gave up 46 to Georgia Tech and 47 to Miami.
As for Virginia Tech's defense, they are giving up 441 yards/game and 6.1 yards/play. I know they have got some guys back that were out with Covid, but it's still not a great unit. Louisville's got a big time talent at QB in Cunningham and a couple of really good skill players. They also just had their best offensive game of the year last week, so they are trending in the right direction. Give me the OVER 66!
|10-31-20||Texas v. Oklahoma State OVER 57.5||41-34||Win||100||121 h 57 m||Show|
40* TEXAS/OKLAHOMA ST NCAAF STEAMROLLER (OVER 57.5)
I think there's a good chance we see 60 or more points in this one. Oklahoma State's offensive numbers are greatly skewed because of how much time starting QB Spencer Sanders has missed. He only played a few snaps in the opener against Tulsa and just returned last week against ISU.
While he threw 2 picks, he did complete 20 of 29 attempts for 295 and that's a really good Cyclones defense. Texas does not have a good defense. The Longhorns are giving up 32.2 ppg and that's with them only giving up 3 to UTEP and 16 last week to an awful Baylor offense. They allowed 56 at Texas Tech, 33 at home to TCU and 53 to Oklahoma. It would be a shock here if Texas didn't give up at least 30.
I also think there's a good chance Texas can score 30 or more. Oklahoma State's defense is only giving up 12.0 ppg, which is great, but a lot of that is schedule. Their first 4 were against Tulsa, W Virginia, Kansas and ISU. By far the best offense they faced so far is the Cyclones and ISU had over 100 yards more than what OK-State had been allowing. Now they face an even better Texas offense. Give me the OVER 57.5!
|10-31-20||LSU v. Auburn OVER 64.5||11-48||Loss||-109||96 h 33 m||Show|
40* LSU/AUBURN NCAAF CASH COW (Over 64.5)
I just feel that LSU is one of the best OVER teams in the country. I think all the guys LSU lost on offense, if you had to guess coming into the year if it would be the offense or defense that was holding this team back, everyone would have said the offense.
That's just not the case. LSU is averaging 42.0 ppg, 486 yards/game and averaging 6.6 yards/play. It's no where close to as good as last year with Burrow, but it's still one of the best units in the country.
They just scored 52 against South Carolina last week without their starting quarterback Myles Brennan. He's unlikely to play, but no big deal. TJ Finley completed 17 of 21 attempts for 265 yards and 2 scores (12.6 avg) against the Gamecocks.
Key here is LSU has to score a bunch, because their defense isn't very good. Not a real shocker given that Bo Pelini is their defensive coordinator. Just look at what they gave up to Mississippi State and what that Bulldogs offense has done in their 3 games since.
Even an average Auburn offense is going to find success against this defense, especially on their home turf. I think both teams easily hit the 30-point mark in this one. Give me the OVER 64.5!
|10-25-20||Packers v. Texans OVER 56.5||35-20||Loss||-115||87 h 50 m||Show|
40* PACKERS/TEXANS NFL STEAMROLLER (OVER 56.5)
I think the best game in terms of entertainment is going to be the showdown between Aaron Rodgers and the Packers vs Deshaun Watson and the Texans. I see both quarterbacks putting on a show and for these two teams to fly past the total here of 56.5.
Rodgers and the Packers got embarrassed last week by Tampa Bay's defense. Whenever a elite QB like Rodgers has an awful performance, they almost always find a way to not just play well, but play great in their next game. This Texans defense is one that GB can expose.
While I expect the offense to bounce back, I don't have the same confidence with the Green Bay defense. There's still a lot of holes on that side of the ball. I expect a tough day against a surging Texans' offense. Ever since O'Brien was fired Watson and the passing game have come to life. He's getting a chance to do more and that's how it should have been. O'Brien was more about running his offense than implementing an offense to fit his talent. Give me the OVER 56.5!
|10-25-20||Cowboys v. Washington Football Team UNDER 46.5||3-25||Win||100||87 h 49 m||Show|
40* COWBOYS/REDSKINS NFL SLAUGHTER (UNDER 46.5)
After watching Andy Dalton and that Cowboys offense struggle to get anything going against a bad Cardinals defense, I got no choice but to play the UNDER at this price, especially against an anemic Redskins offense. Now I will say I would lean Washington to win the game, but I just don't like playing a game with two bad teams.
I was one that thought Dallas' offense was going to be okay with Dalton. I just didn't realize it was as bad as it is on the offensive line. That was a below-average defensive front they just faced in the Cardinals, who were without their stud in Chandler Jones.
The Redskins are not below-average up front on defense. In fact, I think the defensive line is the best position group on the team, led by star rookie Chase Young. I just don't see Dalton and that Cowboys offense doing much.
Redskins have their own limitations on offense. I know they will likely move the ball against this Cowboys defense, but I don't think they are going to go pass-happy with a lead. Rivera will milk that clock and secure a much-needed win for his team. Play the UNDER 46.5!
|10-24-20||Nebraska v. Ohio State OVER 67.5||17-52||Win||100||47 h 25 m||Show|
40* NEBRASKA/OHIO ST NCAAF KNOCKOUT (Over 67.5)
I think we are going to see a ton of points on the scoreboard in the Big Ten opener between Nebraska and Ohio State. Ohio State score 46.9 ppg in 2019 and are loaded once again with junior quarterback Justin Fields back. They put up 48 points and 580 yards last year on Nebraska and should have similar success against a Cornhuskers defense that only brings back 5 starters (have to replace all 3 defensive linemen and 5 total in the front 7.
The key here for me is I think Nebraska is going to be able to score some points. They got 10 starters back on offense with an experienced junior QB in Adrian Martinez (21 starts). Ohio State is going to have a good defense, but I don't think it will be as good as last year when they gave up just 13.7 ppg. They lost a lot from that side of the ball, including the best defensive player in college in Chase Young.
Two other factors here that I think help push this over. First, I believe Ohio State has a ton of incentive here to run up the score. They need style points to try and make up for the time missed with the Big Ten starting so late. The other is the lack of fans, which definitely makes matters a lot easier on that Nebraska offense. Play the OVER 67.5!
|10-20-20||Rays v. Dodgers OVER 7.5||Top||3-8||Win||101||11 h 58 m||Show|
50* RAYS/DODGERS WORLD SERIES *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 7.5)
I would give the slight edge to the Dodgers in Game 1, but I just don't trust Kershaw enough to lay that kind of juice with LA. I instead will be taking the OVER 7.5. Could Kershaw pitch great? Sure. But based on what we have seen in the playoffs, it's not a toss up.
He was so good for 4 innings in his only start against the Braves and then things took a quick turn for the worse. When it was done he gave up 4 runs on 7 hits in 5 innings of a 2-10 loss. You also can't trust that Dodgers pen.
Key here is I think we are going to get a big game from that LA offense. The Dodgers can explode at any moment. We saw that in their 11-run first against the Braves in Game 3. I like Glasnow, but he hasn't been great in the playoffs. He has a 5.40 ERA and 1.350 WHIP. Guy also has a problem with serving up HRs (has allowed 17 in 15 starts). Give me the OVER 7.5!
|10-18-20||Packers v. Bucs OVER 54.5||10-38||Loss||-110||48 h 31 m||Show|
40* PACKERS/BUCS NFL STEAMROLLER (Over 54.5)
I don't know who is going to win this game. Green Bay has looked like the better team to this point, but I want nothing to do with betting against Tom Brady after a game where he's getting made fun of cause he didn't know what down it was.
I believe the value here is with the OVER at 54.5. I really think both of these quarterbacks are going to put on a show and we could see both teams score in the 30s. This is not Aaron Rodgers of the last few years. This is MVP Rodgers we are seeing in 2020. Green Bay has carved up every team they have faced. Teddy Bridgewater went 33 of 42 for 340 against this defense earlier this season and rookie Justin Herbert was 20 of 25 for 278. Rodgers will produce.
Brady and the Bucs offense was starting to get something figured out before that dud against the Bears on Thursday Night Football. I just think TB on short rest with the travel really helped out Chicago in that game. Green Bay's defense has also not been very good. It's just not getting any attention because of how good the offense has been. Packers are giving up 4.8 yards/carry (28th), while opposing QBs are completing 72.2% of their attempts with 7.4 yards/pass attempt. Give me the OVER 54.5!
|10-17-20||North Carolina v. Florida State OVER 63.5||28-31||Loss||-110||54 h 17 m||Show|
40* N CAROLINA/FLORIDA ST NCAAF STEAMROLLER (Over 63.5)
I just don't feel the books have set the total anywhere close to enough for Saturday's ACC matchup between No. 5 North Carolina and Florida State.
After a bit of a sluggish start to the 2020 season, we got a real good glimpse of just how good this Tar Heels offense can be in last week's win over then No. 19 Virginia Tech. UNC put up 56 points with 656 yards of total offense. They did as they pleased with Sam Howell throwing for 257 yards and 3 scores and the Tar Heels rushing for 399 yards and 5 scores.
That offense will now be up against a Florida State defense that has struggled against quality teams. The Seminoles allowed 52 points to Miami and 42 to Notre Dame. Both the Hurricanes and Irish had over 500 yards of total offense.
The key here is that we should see FSU's offense be able to score their fair share in this one. While UNC's offense was great in their win over the Hokies. They also gave up 45 points and 495 yards to Va Tech. Would have been a lot more had they started Hendon Hooker instead of sitting him the whole 1st half.
FSU's offense has also looked much better under Jordan Travis. He's really been able to stretch the field, as he's averaging 9.7 yards/completion. A major upgrade over what they were getting at the position. He can also make defenses pay with his legs. Hes rushed it 43 times for 235 yards and 2 scores. Give me the OVER 63.5.
|10-11-20||Cardinals v. Jets OVER 47||30-10||Loss||-115||146 h 15 m||Show|
40* CARDS/JETS NFL *STEAMROLLER* Over 47
I see a ton of value with a total less than 50 in Sunday's matchup between the Jets and Cardinals. One of the big reasons the total is so low, is the Jets offense has really struggled to score and are now without starting Darnold.
There's a lot worse options than veteran Joe Flacco and I just don't know that there's a massive drop off in the offensive potential with him under center. I also think this Arizona defense is a lot worse than people realize. Cardinals are only giving up 23.0 ppg, but are allowing 5.9 yards/play, giving up 4.5 yards/carry and 7.1 yards/pass attempt.
Most would say the Jets defense is awful and it has been. What might surprise you is how similar the Cardinals defense has been outside of the points allowed. Jets give up 32.8 ppg but only 5.8 yards/play, 4.2 yards/carry and 7.4 yards/pass attempts.
If the Jets can just get into the 20's here this thing should fly over. Kyler Murray and that Cardinals offense should score early and often. Give me the OVER 47!
|10-11-20||Panthers v. Falcons OVER 53||23-16||Loss||-110||119 h 19 m||Show|
40* PANTHERS/FALCONS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (OVER 53)
These two teams should have no problem eclipsing this total. Both of these teams can get after you offensively and neither has a defense that is all that imposing. The loss of Christian McCaffrey has not slowed down this Panthers team.
Carolina just racked up 444 yards in a 31-21 win over the Cardinals. Teddy Bridgewater thew for 276 yards and 2 scores, while the Panthers rushed for 168 yards on 35 attempts (4.8 yards/carry).
I really think we are seeing the impact Joe Brady (new offensive coordinator) is having with this team. Bridgewater is also one of the more underrated quarterbacks out there.
No reason to think that Carolina's offense won't be able to move the ball against this Atlanta defense. Falcons are 31st (ahead of only Seattle), giving up 448.3 ypg. Most of those coming via big pass plays, as they are 31st against the pass, allowing 341.5 ypg.
Sure Atlanta's defense has had a difficult task facing Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers in 3 of their first 4, but they also gave up 30 points to the Bears, allowing Foles to throw three 4th quarter touchdowns.
As far as the Falcons offense, we know they are going to put up points with Matt Ryan and that passing attack. Give me the OVER 53!
|10-11-20||Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 56.5||Top||40-32||Win||100||119 h 15 m||Show|
50* RAIDERS/CHIEFS AFC WEST PLAY OF THE MONTH (Over 56.5)
I know the history of these two teams has seen a lot of UNDERS, but I absolutely love the OVER in this matchup. Patrick Mahomes and that Kansas City offense really struggled last week against the Patriots. They played about as poorly as we have seen them since Mahomes became the starter.
The special players like Mahomes, always seem to bounce back from a bad game with one of their best. A motivated Mahomes should spell disaster for this Raiders defense. Oakland's giving up 30 ppg. They rank in the bottom half of the league against both the run and the pass. Last year Mahomes scored 28 in a quarter against this defense in the first matchup and KC put up 40 in the next meeting.
Key here is I expect Oakland to make a game of it. There's no question this Chiefs defense is better than they get credit for, but I just wonder if they aren't primed for a bit of a letdown here. They were clearly excited to play Week 1 against the Texans, then they had to carry them in a win at LA, after that it was Lamar and the Ravens and Belichick and the Pats.
Even though the Raiders are a big rival, it's not as big when the teams aren't on the same level in talent. Not to mention they got a HUGE game on deck at Buffalo next week. Bills are clearly one of the top teams in the AFC and only one team gets that first round bye this year. That's a massive tie-breaker game for the No. 1 seed. Give me the OVER 57!
|10-08-20||Bucs v. Bears OVER 44||19-20||Loss||-110||76 h 14 m||Show|
40* BUCCANEERS/BEARS NFL *VEGAS INSIDER (Over 44)
I really like the OVER 44 between the Bears/Bucs on Thursday Night Football. It's almost to the point you just got to take the OVER with a total this low. Going into Monday Night Football in Week 4, out of 14 games, 11 had 45 or more points with 8 of those going for 50+.
That includes a shootout last Thursday between two awful offensive teams, as the Broncos and Jets combined for 65. That game really speaks to just how hard it is on these defenses to play well in these Thursday games on short rest. You also have scoring up from a lack of fans and the refs not calling offensive holding near as much.
The big reason this total is so low, is because of how bad the Bears looked in Nick Foles first start. Chicago got next to nothing going in a home loss to the Colts, scoring just 11 points on 269 total yards (only had 3 points with less than 2 minutes to play in the 4th).
Thing is that Indy defense is extremely difficult to pass on. In fact, the Colts lead the NFL in pass defense, giving up just 159.3 ypg. The Bucs defense is more geared toward stopping the run. I think Foles and that offense can provide enough spark in this one to push us past.
As for Tampa Bay's offense, they are getting better and better as the season goes on. Tom Brady has not regressed like so many thought he would leaving NE. He threw 5 TDs in last week's come from behind win over the Chargers. He's going to want to play well in this one (prime time and rematch with Foles) and I expect him to do just that. Give me the OVER 44!
|10-08-20||Rays v. Yankees OVER 9||Top||1-5||Loss||-110||10 h 47 m||Show|
50* RAYS/YANKEES MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 9)
We have played and cashed easily on the OVER in each of the last two games in this series. All 3 games in this series have seen a combined 12 runs scored. The OVER is now a perfect 5-0 in Yankees postseason games. It's also 4-1 in the Rays postseason games. Tampa Bay has scored 15 runs in the last two games of this series and have scored 7 or more in 3 of their last 4 games overall.
I see no reason not to expect another high scoring game today. Rays are starting an opener in Ryan Thompson, who has only made 1 start this season (24 relief appearances). He's got a mere 4.44 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over his 26.1 innings of work.
New York will counter with Jordan Montgomery, who went just 2-3 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.295 WHIP in 10 starts. Montgomery hasn't pitched in a game since Sept. 24, so there definitely could be some rust with him in this one. Montgomery made 1 start vs TB this season and didn't get out of the 1st innings, recording just 2 outs, while giving up 4 runs on 5 hits (2 HRs). Give me the OVER 9!
|10-07-20||Rays v. Yankees OVER 9||Top||8-4||Win||100||10 h 42 m||Show|
50* RAYS/YANKEES MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 9)
We cashed the OVER 8 in yesterday's 7-5 Rays win. Each of the first two games in the series have both ended with 12 total runs scored. No way I'm backing off the OVER in Game 3.
The Yankees had just 5 hits and had a postseason record 19 strikeouts. They still scored 5 runs. Thanks largely to Stanton, who hit two homers. Stanton has homered in every playoff game for New York.
I'm expecting plenty more strikeouts for Yankees' hitters, but I also see them doing a lot more damage this time around against Charlie Morton. It was an off year for Morton. He started out slow, was hurt and really never hit his stride. He finished with a 4.74 ERA and 1.395 WHIP in 9 starts. He had a 4.40 ERA and 1.465 WHIP in his last 3.
New York counters with Tanaka, who was rocked for 6 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks in his start against the Indians in the first round of the playoffs. Tanaka also has had a down year with a 4.33 ERA in 11 starts. He's got a 7.20 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in his last 3. Give me the OVER 9!
|10-06-20||Yankees v. Rays OVER 8||5-7||Win||100||11 h 19 m||Show|
40* YANKEES/RAYS MLB VEGAS INSIDER (Over 8)
The Yankees have played 3 playoff games and scored at least 9 runs in all 3 games. It's not like they have been exploiting bad starters. The have faced the soon to be AL Cy Young winner in Bieber, Carrasco and Snell. I know Rays starter Tyler Glasnow comes into having pitched well, I just don't know that it matters with the way the Yankees are swinging the bat.
On top of that, this is a game the Rays could go off in. New York is sending out 21-year-old rookie Deivi Garcia, who has just 6 career starts to his name. While the future looks bright for Garcia, he posted a very mediocre 4.15 FIP and 4.65 xFIP. He also wasn't great in his last two starts, giving up 10 runs on 15 hits in 9 2/3 innings of work. Give me the OVER 8!
|10-05-20||Patriots v. Chiefs OVER 49||Top||10-26||Loss||-110||10 h 49 m||Show|
50* PATS/CHIEFS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 49)
I was on the OVER in this game before it got postponed and moved to tonight. I still think it's the play. Yes, I know Cam Newton isn't playing for the Patriots and he's been great in the first 3 games. I just don't think it's going to impact the scoring as much as some might think.
In fact, it could be a positive. With Cam there's a lot more QB runs, which would have allowed NE to try to eat up more clock and limit the number of times Mahomes got the ball. I also think this Chiefs defense is built for guys like Cam and Lamar. They can really make life miserable for a QB that wants to use his legs and really isn't a precision passer.
All indications are that Hoyer will be the starter over Stidham. I like that, but still would like the over if they switched last second.
As for the Chiefs, I think we finally saw their offense resemble what we thought it should look like in last week's complete beatdown against the Ravens. They put up 34 points on a great Baltimore defense and left plenty of points out there. Note Baltimore has allowed 39 points in their 3 other games.
Belichick is a great defensive mind, but Mahomes has now seen this NE defense enough to know what to expect. Thing is Pats can get away with just his coaching against most teams, but the overall talent level is not great on that side of the ball. We saw Russell Wilson go 21 of 28 for 288 and 5 TDs against this defense a couple weeks ago. Mahomes might throw for 5 TDs, but should put up at least similar numbers. Give me the OVER 49!
|10-04-20||Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 48.5||25-33||Win||100||100 h 43 m||Show|
40* JAGUARS/BENGALS NFL NO-BRAINER (OVER 48.5)
I’m expecting a lot of offensive fireworks on both sides of the ball, as we have two talented young signal callers facing off in Joe Burrow and Gardner Minshew.
Let’s start off talking about Burrow and the Bengals offense. Cincinnati is not holding back with their rookie quarterback. Burrow’s 141 pass attempts are 2nd only to the Cowboys Dak Prescott.
He’s the 12 ranked starting QB according to PFF (Pro Football Focus). What’s impressive with Burrow is he’s producing despite being under constant pressure. One thing to note on that is that the 3 teams he’s faced, Chargers, Browns and Eagles all have a ton of talent up front on the defensive line.
The Jaguars got a decent defensive end in Josh Allen, but the rest of that unit up front is trash. Jacksonville as a team has just 2 sacks in their first 3 games. They only could manage 1 against a Dolphins offensive line that is every bit as bad as what Cincinnati has. Not only will this help Burrow and give him more time for big plays down the field, it will also give the Bengals a more balanced attack with the run game, which should help sustain drives.
As for Minshew and the Jaguars offense, they put up 27 in Week 1 against a great Colts defense and then 30 on the road against the Titans. They did struggle in their last game, scoring just 13 points on Thursday Night Football against the Dolphins. Big thing to note with that game is that Minshew was without his top target in D.J. Chark. While he’s only practicing in a limited role, everything I’ve read is that he’s going to be good to go on Sunday.
The Bengals rank 14th in scoring defense at 24.7 ppg, but are way back at 24th in total defense, giving up 392.3 ypg. Thing is they held the Chargers to just 13 points, but that was when LA was still handicapping themselves with Tyrod Taylor at QB. They also just held the Eagles to 23, but Carson Wentz has been awful. Wentz is the 33rd ranked QB out of 35 in PFF.
The only decent offense they faced was the Browns and Cleveland is far from an offensive juggernaut. Browns had 35 points and 434 yards against that defense. Even if the Bengals get back All-Pro defensive tackle Geno Atkins, the rest of that Front 7 is garbage.
I think these two will have no problem eclipsing the 50 point mark. Not only will I be betting the OVER 48.5, but I’ve also got action on the OVER 23.5 for the 1st half. Give me the OVER 48.5!