Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-07-23 | Presbyterian v. Vanderbilt -18.5 | Top | 68-62 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
I believe this number is too short. Vanderbilt came on strong last season, winning 10 of its last 11 regular-season games to earn an NIT bid where the Commodores reached the quarterfinals. Vanderbilt defeated five eventual NCAA Tournament participants down this stretch. |
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11-07-23 | Northern Iowa +4.5 v. North Texas | 77-83 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
Northern Iowa should be much improved from its 12-20 record of last season. The Panthers return nine of its top 10 scorers along with having three highly touted freshmen. Two of the Panthers' returners, Tylan Anderson and Bowen Born, were named to the All-Missouri Valley preseason all-conference team. |
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11-06-23 | Chargers v. Jets +3.5 | Top | 27-6 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 14 m | Show |
The Chargers looked great in their last game destroying the Bears at home, 30-13. But the buy sign rarely is on the Chargers because of Brandon Staley. It certainly isn't on then here with the Chargers road chalk against the Jets on Monday night. |
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11-06-23 | Wizards +11.5 v. 76ers | 128-146 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
The Wizards are a tough team to get behind with their lack of defense. But this is a good spot for them. |
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11-06-23 | Iona v. College of Charleston -6.5 | 69-71 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 53 m | Show | |
College of Charleston went 31-4 last season, reaching No. 18 in the AP Top 25 poll and earning an NCAA Tournament bid. The Cougars should be good again with a strong junior class and balanced scoring. |
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11-05-23 | Colts v. Panthers +3 | 27-13 | Loss | -120 | 64 h 29 m | Show | |
If there's one game Panthers coach Frank Reich wants to win more than any other it's this one against the Colts, a team he was fired from after coaching them the previous five years. |
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11-05-23 | Cardinals v. Browns -11 | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show | |
The game hasn't even started and already Clayton Tune is hearing Myles Garrett's footsteps. |
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11-04-23 | Boise State +2.5 v. Fresno State | 30-37 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 24 m | Show | |
I'm far from convinced Fresno State is better than Boise State. The Bulldogs have been extremely lucky while Boise State has been extremely unfortunate.
The Broncos are 4-4, but three of those losses were by a combined six points for an average loss of two points. The only time Boise State has been completely out of a game was its opener against No. 5 ranked unbeaten Washington. Fresno State is 7-1 with four of those victories occurring by a single score. Bulldogs QB Mikey Keene doesn't look completely healthy either. He finished last week's game against UNLV hobbling. The Rebels are not strong defensively. Yet they held the Bulldogs to 312 total yards. Boise State showed how far it has come along when it whipped Wyoming, 32-7, last week. Wyoming dealt Fresno State its only loss, 24-19, a month ago. The Broncos have historically been very strong as an underdog covering 65 percent of the time in that role during the past 52 instances. |
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11-04-23 | LSU v. Alabama -3 | Top | 28-42 | Win | 100 | 66 h 54 m | Show |
Defense trumps offense. That's what it comes down to in this matchup, especially with Alabama in a revenge spot. |
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11-04-23 | Kansas v. Iowa State -2.5 | 28-21 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 58 m | Show | |
Kansas is coming off one of its biggest football victories in school history having upset Oklahoma at home last Saturday. It was the Jayhawks' first home win against a Top 10 team since 1984. The fans went crazy storming the field. The victory also made the Jayhawks' bowl eligible, which is a big deal for them. |
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11-04-23 | Ohio State v. Rutgers +19 | 35-16 | Push | 0 | 58 h 48 m | Show | |
Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. That's the upper tier of the Big Ten. Heading up the next tier is Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are having their best start in 11 years going 6-2, already bowl-eligible. They can stay within this number of Ohio State if not giving the Buckeyes a downright scare. |
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11-02-23 | Raptors v. 76ers -8 | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
The 76ers are in action for the first time since trading James Harden. They also haven't played since Sunday. So the 76ers should have energy and motivation. The talent certainly is there. |
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11-01-23 | Nets +5.5 v. Heat | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
The Heat are not built for the early part of the season. This is when they historically struggle and it's happening again this season. If it weren't for a one-point victory against the lowly Pistons, the Heat would be 0-4. |
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11-01-23 | Ball State v. Bowling Green -5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 31 m | Show |
I find excellent value getting Bowling Green at home laying less than a touchdown to Ball State. |
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10-31-23 | Knicks v. Cavs +3.5 | 109-91 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
The Cavaliers have been pointing to this matchup ever since the Knicks eliminated them in the playoffs last season. The Knicks took advantage of Cleveland's outside shooting deficiencies and rebounding. |
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10-30-23 | Raiders v. Lions -8 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 43 h 6 m | Show |
Both the Raiders and Lions were humbled last week. The Lions were destroyed, 38-6, by the Ravens while the Raiders were embarrassed by the Bears, 30-12, who were giving rookie QB Tyson Bagent his first NFL start. |
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10-29-23 | Vikings v. Packers +1 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
The Bears are the Packers' oldest rival. But it's the Vikings who the Packers want to beat more than any other team. It has been that way for years. The spot sets up perfect for Green Bay to do just that. |
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10-28-23 | North Carolina v. Georgia Tech +12 | Top | 42-46 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show |
We saw North Carolina implode last season losing its last four games after a 9-1 start. The pattern continues this season. The Tar Heels were upset, 31-27, by visiting Virginia as a 24-point favorite last week. That halted the Tar Heels' six-game win streak to start the season and raises serious concerns about North Carolina. |
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10-28-23 | Grizzlies v. Wizards | 106-113 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
It's not asking too much for the Grizzlies to beat the Wizards. Memphis, after all, is the vastly superior team. The Grizzlies were 20 games above .500 last season. Washington finished eight games below .500. |
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10-28-23 | Wyoming +4.5 v. Boise State | 7-32 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 60 m | Show | |
A decline in recruiting and coaching is taking a toll on Boise State. The Broncos are overvalued because of their past reputation. This is such a case. |
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10-27-23 | Nets +6.5 v. Mavs | Top | 120-125 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are superstars.Their presence, though, makes the Mavericks overrated. Doncic may be the best player to have in fantasy basketball, but Dallas isn't that good. The roster is very mediocre once you get past Doncic and Irving. |
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10-25-23 | Celtics -3 v. Knicks | Top | 108-104 | Win | 100 | 17 h 45 m | Show |
I find this line to be short. The Celtics are an elite team and they got better during the off-season acquiring Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday. |
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10-25-23 | Rockets +4 v. Magic | 86-116 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
The perception here is the Rockets are a bottom-feeder and the Magic are an up-and-coming team. |
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10-24-23 | Lakers +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-119 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
The Nuggets came together in impressive fashion last season winning 16 of 20 playoff games to capture the NBA championship. One of Denver's victims was the Lakers. |
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10-23-23 | 49ers -6.5 v. Vikings | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -115 | 117 h 44 m | Show |
The Vikings played their first game without Justin Jefferson this past Sunday. They managed only 220 yards of total offense, reaching the red zone just once. Yet they managed to win because they were playing the Bears, who had lost Justin Fields to injury during the game. |
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10-22-23 | Chargers +5.5 v. Chiefs | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 9 m | Show | |
The Chargers are a frustrating team to get behind because of Brandon Staley's perplexing on-field decisions. But there are two things you can say about the Chargers: They possess a lot of talent and they keep games close. LA hasn't lost a game by more than three points during its last 11 games. Kansas City went 2-0 versus the Chargers last season. Each win was by three points. The Chiefs' offense is worse this season and the Chargers are improved. The Chargers are averaging 25.4 points and have only three turnovers. The Chiefs are averaging 24.5 points and have turned the ball over nine times. If you discount a 41-10 win against the hapless Bears, the Chiefs would be averaging 21.2 points in their last five games. Patrick Mahomes and his merry band of mediocre wide receivers have yet to get in sync. Mahomes is frustrated with them. Who can blame him? Kansas City's defense has played much better than LA's. However, the Chiefs have just played four bad-to-mediocre offenses - the Bears, Jets, Vikings, in which Justin Jefferson suffered an injury, and Broncos. The Chargers' defense is getting better as they get healthier with the return of star safety Derwin James and linebacker Erick Kendricks. The Chargers have 21 sacks in their last four games. Their defense is ascending, while the Chiefs' defense goes against the best quarterback, Justin Herbert, they have faced all season.
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10-22-23 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -7 | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 88 h 28 m | Show | |
The Seahawks had won three in a row, including beating the Lions, until losing to the Bengals this past Sunday. Look for the Seahawks to get back on the winning track here. They beat the Cardinals twice last season, each time by 10 points. The Cardinals are worse this season and the Seahawks have gotten healthier in their secondary and offensive line. I see another double-digit victory by Seattle. Arizona ranks in the bottom-six defensively in the two most important categories, points allowed and yards given up. The Seahawks can open their offense now more for Geno Smith with their starting tackles back in action. Joshua Dobbs is a very limited QB. He's especially ineffective without the Cardinals' one decent running back, injured James Conner. Dobbs has completed fewer than 50 percent of his throws during the past couple of games. This is really egregious because he rarely throws downfield. He's averaged just 5.5 yards per pass attempt during this span and has more interceptions than TD passes. Seattle's defense could really come on with cornerbacks Devon Witherspoon and Tariq Woolen along with the return of dominant safety Jamal Adams to shore up the secondary.
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10-21-23 | Minnesota +4 v. Iowa | Top | 12-10 | Win | 100 | 42 h 36 m | Show |
This is the lowest football total of the season. So taking more than a field goal where points are going to be at an absolute premium certainly makes sense. |
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10-21-23 | Oklahoma State v. West Virginia -3.5 | 48-34 | Loss | -104 | 40 h 56 m | Show | |
If Houston didn't hit on a Hail Mary on the final play last week against West Virginia, the Mountaineers may have been a heavier favorite than they are now. That 41-39 loss to Houston halted the Mountaineers' four-game win and covering streak. |
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10-21-23 | Air Force v. Navy +10.5 | 17-6 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 39 m | Show | |
It's a simple rule when two service academies play one another, think Under and underdog, especially when the number is at double-digits like it is here. |
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10-21-23 | Central Florida +17.5 v. Oklahoma | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
Oklahoma may not be that sharp coming out of its bye having defeated arch-rival Texas in its previous game, 34-30, on a touchdown in the final minute. The Sooners still might be celebrating. UCF also is coming off a bye. The extra time allowed dual threat QB John Rhys Plumlee to get healthy after missing most of the last four games. He makes a difference for UCF. The Knights are familiar with Sooners' star QB Dillon Gabriel, who played for UCF from 2019-21. The Knights actually average more yards per game than Oklahoma. |
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10-18-23 | Aces +6.5 v. Liberty | 70-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
The defending WNBA champion Aces haven't been this big of an underdog since 2020. This is only the second time all season Las Vegas is getting points. The Aces blew out the Liberty, 99-82 and 104-76, at home during the first two games of this best-of-five championship series before losing Game 3 in New York, 87-73, this past Sunday.
So what gives with this large of a point spread? Several things: New York is home and its confidence has been restored after Sunday's victory. More important, though, are the Aces being without injured Chelsea Gray, last year's Finals MVP, and center Kiah Stokes. Both have foot injuries. Gray is a great two-way player and definitely worth something on the betting line. But the line is too high. The Aces are extremely well coached by Becky Hammon and are mentally tough. They also have versatile guards and swing players. Hammon can rely on point guard Kelsey Plum and guard/forward Jackie Young to keep the Aces' system fluid minus Gray. Plum is having an outstanding series. Stokes is a defensive specialist. She brought nothing to Las Vegas' offense. Alysha Clark, the Aces' sixth person, now will draw more minutes. She's a 3-point shooting threat who can keep the Liberty from jamming A'ja Wilson inside. Breanna Stewart won the league MVP award. But Wilson is the best player on the court. She should have been the league MVP. I trust Hammon to make the right adjustments. So I will accept this many points. |
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10-17-23 | Western Kentucky -7.5 v. Jacksonville State | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Schedule matters. So does quarterback injuries. Factor these elements in and Western Kentucky is worthy of a play. |
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10-15-23 | Giants +15.5 v. Bills | 9-14 | Win | 100 | 47 h 9 m | Show | |
I know the Giants are a hard sell even though this is the largest point spread of the season. Daniel Jones is out. So is left tackle Andrew Thomas, the team's best offensive lineman. I don't expect Saquon Barkley to return for this game either. But the Bills aren't without key injuries either. They will be missing three important defensive players: linebacker Matt Milano, cornerback Tre'Davious White and nose tackle DaQuan Jones. The Giants have veteran Tyrod Taylor to fill in for Jones. He's a journeyman. But his mobility and experience make him one of the better backup quarterbacks. There are three other factors as to why the Giants can stay within two TD's. At 1-4, the Giants are in desperate shape. They really can't take a loss here. The Bills have a division game up next against the Patriots on the road. They don't want to show anything new to Bill Belichick so they'll be as vanilla as possible. The Bills are returning from London. Any American who has flown to London and back realizes it takes at least a few days to fully get over jet lag. So there is the real possibility of the Bills being flat for this contest. Then there's the Brian Daboll angle. He was the Bills' popular and effective offensive coordinator before taking the Giants job last year. Daboll doesn't want to be embarrassed on national TV with this being the Sunday night game. I doubt that Sean McDermott and Josh Allen run up a score on their buddy Daboll.
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10-15-23 | Patriots +3 v. Raiders | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -115 | 43 h 16 m | Show |
You have to go back to Bill Belichick's first year as head coach of the Patriots in 2000 to find New England this bad. The Patriots have hit rock bottom losing by a combined, 72-3, to the Cowboys and Saints during the last two weeks. So I'm buying as low as possible on the Patriots as they drop way down in class to face the Raiders. Las Vegas has yet to break 18 points in a game. The Raiders are on a short week in a letdown spot after beating the Packers at home on Monday night. Belichick has lost a lot of his coaching luster during the past couple of seasons. But he's still miles ahead of Josh McDaniels when it comes to coaching. McDaniels seems to make mistakes in crucial on-the-field decisions every game. The Patriots are going to run the ball with Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott while Mac Jones mixes in a few short passes. This is the right game plan to attack a Raiders defense that guards against the long ball and heavily relies on Maxx Crosby to create havoc. Belichick is familiar with Jimmy Garoppolo having coached him when Garoppolo was in New England. Belichick can exploit Garoppolo's many weaknesses. Garoppolo leads in the NFL in interceptions with seven despite missing a game. The Raiders rank last in rushing, 30th in scoring and 29th in total yards.
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10-14-23 | San Diego State -5.5 v. Hawaii | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 73 h 48 m | Show | |
Having had their last four games against Air Force, Boise State, Oregon State and UCLA, the San Diego State Aztecs are stepping way down in class. Hawaii was picked to finish 10th out of 12 teams in the Mountain West Conference in the preseason media poll and so far the Rainbow Warriors have lived up to those low projections. They have played one Mountain West game and were blown out, 44-20, by UNLV. San Diego State has one of the top tight ends in the Mountain West, Mark Redman, and one of the best dual kickers in the country, Jack Browning. The Aztecs hold major edges against the Rainbow Warriors at tight end, special teams and in running the ball. According to the ESPN Special Teams Efficiency metric, San Diego State fields the 19th-best special teams while Hawaii ranks 124th. San Diego State has a history of defensive improvement as the season goes on. Hawaii ranks last in the country in rushing. That puts a lot of pressure on Rainbow Warriors QB Brayden Schager and he's turnover-prone with seven interceptions. The Aztecs are far from explosive. But they are facing a defense that has only come up with one takeaway, gives up nearly 35 points per game and ranks 108th in rush defense. San Diego State has defeated Hawaii during each of the past three seasons.
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10-14-23 | Canucks v. Oilers -1.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 19 m | Show | |
It was the shocker of the first week. Vancouver buried Edmonton, 8-1, at home this past Wednesday. Superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl certainly weren't happy. Look for the Oilers to get their rapid revenge with the rematch set for Edmonton on Saturday. Not only will the Oilers be highly motivated, but they should have key defenseman Mattias Ekholm, who missed Wednesday's game. The Oilers finished last season winning 12 of their past 16 home games.
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10-14-23 | UCLA +3.5 v. Oregon State | 24-36 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 54 m | Show | |
I trust UCLA's defense to keep them in this game if not prove instrumental in the Bruins upsetting Oregon State. UCLA is surrendering just 12.2 points a game. Defensive end Laiatu Latu, perhaps the premier pass rusher in the country, and linebacker Darius Muasau have a combined nine of the Bruins' 18 sacks. UCLA has recorded 44 tackles for a loss. This is in just five games, too. Oregon State has permitted 30 tackles for a loss. The Bruins rank No. 3 against the run. They can bottle up Oregon State's two good running backs, Damien Martinez and Deshaun Fenwick, forcing DJ Uiagalelei to beat them. I don't believe Uiagalelei is a good enough quarterback to do that.
Oregon State just put up 52 points on California. That might have caused some line inflation here because I believe UCLA is the better team. |
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10-14-23 | Kansas State +2 v. Texas Tech | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show | |
I want Kansas State going for me following a 29-21 road loss to Oklahoma State as an 11 1/2-point favorite last week. Will Howard had his worst game throwing three interceptions against the Cowboys. He's much better than that, a grade above Texas Tech backup QB Behren Morton. The Red Raiders rank 94th in pass defense. I'm looking for a strong comeback performance from Howard. |
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10-14-23 | Iowa v. Wisconsin -9.5 | 15-6 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 40 m | Show | |
Both teams are strong defensively. But Iowa doesn't have enough offense to stay within double-digits of Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes were 132nd in yards per game at 249.2 and now have to go with backup QB Deacon Hill after starting QB Cade McNamara suffered a season-ending knee injury last week. Hill couldn't win the starting job at Wisconsin before transferring to Iowa. He's a step down from the mediocre McNamara. Iowa has the third-worst passing attack in the country. |
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10-12-23 | Broncos +10.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 8-19 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
This is a lot of points to lay in a division matchup for the Chiefs. Aside from walloping the Bears, the Chiefs haven't looked that sharp offensively. Discount that Bears game and the Chiefs are averaging 21.7 points in their four other games. |
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10-12-23 | Red Wings v. Devils -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
The Red Wings haven't made the Stanley Cup playoffs in seven seasons. I don't see them making the playoffs again this season.
The Devils, on the other hand, are a rising power. They finished with 112 points last season. They scored 3.5 goals per game, fifth-highest in the league, and have a top-10 defense. New Jersey's attack could be even deadlier with the additions of Timo Meier and Tyler Toffoli. They join emerging superstar Jack Hughes. The Red Wings are weak in net with Villie Husso and James Reimer. Expectations are high for New Jersey. I don't see the Devils letting their fans down in the season-opener for both teams. |
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10-09-23 | Packers +2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
Pure and simple, wrong team favored. And that's figuring Davante Adams is going to play for the Raiders against his former team.
The Raiders won't even have much of a home field advantage as the Packers travel well. There will be plenty of cheeseheads at Allegiant Stadium. Jordan Love should have his major weapons back. Green Bay also is expected to have its entire starting offensive line on the field with the exception of left tackle David Bakhtiari. Love is set to shine facing a Raiders defense that gives up a 108.2 passer rating and has multiple injuries in their secondary. Las Vegas has some star power with Adams, Josh Jacobs and Maxx Crosby, a top-five pass rusher. But the Raiders' supplemental talent is well below par and they are poorly coached. Some consider Jimmy Garoppolo to be an average NFL quarterback. I find him to be below average. Despite missing last week while in concussion protocol, Garoppolo has thrown six interceptions in three games. The Raiders have lost three in a row. They entered this week with an NFL-worst minus-nine turnover ratio, while also ranking among the worst on third down and in the red zone on both sides of the ball. The Packers are no longer Super Bowl contenders without Aaron Rodgers. But they are a seven-to-nine win team, which puts them a level higher than the Raiders. |
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10-08-23 | Cowboys v. 49ers -3.5 | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 80 h 24 m | Show | |
If home field is worth 3 points then the oddsmaker is saying San Francisco is barely better than Dallas. |
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10-08-23 | Bengals -3 v. Cardinals | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 76 h 22 m | Show |
I'm buying low on the Bengals. This is a circle-the-wagons game for them. A loss to the Cardinals would put Cincinnati at 1-4 with its next three games against the Seahawks, 49ers and Bills.
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10-08-23 | Eagles v. Rams +4.5 | 23-14 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 16 m | Show | |
Perhaps this is nitpicking because the Eagles are unbeaten after all. But they haven't looked very good at least compared to last season. |
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10-08-23 | Liberty +4.5 v. Aces | 82-99 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
It's only fitting that New York and Las Vegas meet in the WNBA Championship Series. Both are superpowers loaded with star power and clearly the two best teams in the WNBA. |
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10-08-23 | Ravens v. Steelers +4.5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 48 h 14 m | Show | |
It has been seven games since the Ravens beat the Steelers by more than a field goal. Pittsburgh, in fact, has won five of its last six meetings against Baltimore.
The Steelers have their bye next week. They certainly don't want to enter it on a two-game losing streak after an embarrassing, 30-6, road loss to the Texans last Sunday. Baltimore is at its worst laying points - 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when favored. Pittsburgh is at its best as a home underdog - 16-5-3 ATS the last 24 times. The Steelers have covered 64 percent of the time under Mike Tomlin when receiving points at home going 51-28-4 ATS. The 3-1 Ravens are trying to establish themselves early as the team to beat in the AFC North already owning division road victories against the Bengals and Browns. Right now, though, the Ravens aren't that good despite their record. The Ravens beat the Texans opening week at home when C.J. Stroud was making his NFL debut behind a makeshift offensive line. Baltimore then beat the Bengals in Week 2 when Joe Burrow wasn't 100 percent and the Bengals were in a down mode. Then came an upset road loss to the Colts, who were quarterbacked by backup Gardner Minshew. The Ravens then caught a monster break last Sunday when Deshaun Watson was a late scratch forcing the Browns to use untested rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who found out the hard way that regular season is vastly different than preseason. Lamar Jackson is playing well. But the Ravens have been dealing with a cluster injury problem in their offensive line, running back and secondary. The Steelers have a strong history of defending Jackson well. Jackson has never scored a rushing TD against the Steelers and has a 4-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio versus Pittsburgh. T.J. Watt is back to his dominant pass rushing self tied for the NFL lead in sacks with six. I'm fine no matter who is behind center for Pittsburgh. Kenny Pickett would be an inspiration after getting knocked out last week with a knee injury, while backup Mitch Trubisky would provide a running threat the Steelers don't have with Pickett. |
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10-07-23 | South Alabama v. UL-Monroe +10.5 | 55-7 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 31 m | Show | |
Just because South Alabama beat a mediocre Oklahoma State on the road doesn't mean the Jaguars are any good. |
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10-07-23 | Washington State +3.5 v. UCLA | 17-25 | Loss | -113 | 48 h 20 m | Show | |
Washington State seems on a mission to win the last Pac-12 football championship as we know the league to be. Maybe it's because the Cougars are one of just four teams left in the Pac-12 after the league will break up starting next season. |
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10-05-23 | Sam Houston State v. Liberty -19 | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -113 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
To say Sam Houston State is struggling transitioning into the FCS would be an understatement. The Bearkats are 0-5 and have by far the worst offense in the nation averaging 9.5 points and 219.8 yards a game. |
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10-04-23 | Jacksonville State v. Middle Tennessee State -3 | Top | 45-30 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 60 m | Show |
Jacksonville State is 4-1 while Middle Tennessee State is 1-4. Yet the Blue Raiders are the favorites. |
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10-01-23 | Chiefs -8 v. Jets | 23-20 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 18 m | Show | |
No matter how good of a defense you have, it doesn't matter if your offense can't score. The Jets' offense has generated three TD's in three games with Zach Wilson. That's not going to cut it against many teams. Certainly not against the high-powered defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes deservedly gets all the attention. But quietly the Chiefs' defense has emerged as a very good stop unit. Kansas City is giving up only 13.3 points per game having faced the Lions, Jaguars and Bears. The Chiefs are giving up the fourth-fewest points and seventh-fewest yards per game. Kansas City has a dominant pass rusher in Chris Jones. The Jets' offensive line hasn't been very good. But even when given time, Wilson still ranks last among qualifying quarterbacks in passer ratings when afforded decent protection. The Chiefs' attack is potent with a healthy Travis Kelce and he's back healthy. |
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10-01-23 | Broncos -3 v. Bears | Top | 31-28 | Push | 0 | 122 h 26 m | Show |
How wretched are the Bears? The winless Broncos, who just lost by 50 points, are road favorites against them. And Denver is the right side. Chicago is the worst team in the NFL right now. Worse, the Bears know it. They have dissension, multiple injuries on their offensive line and in the secondary and Justin Fields isn't on the same page with the coaching staff. As exciting as he is, Fields remains an unpolished project who is not accurate and holds the ball too long. He's been sacked 13 times. The Bears have one sack by comparison. The Broncos have looked as bad with Sean Payton as they did with Nathaniel Hackett. Maybe that should reduce Payton's considerable ego. But Payton can coach. Russell Wilson is playing better than last season and Denver's defense still is better than Chicago's. The Bears don't have nearly the speed or passing accuracy to light up the Broncos' defense the way the Dolphins did. The Bears have lost 13 straight games. They are 1-16 SU, 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games. One team finally gets back on track here - and it's not the Bears. |
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10-01-23 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | 26-9 | Loss | -120 | 92 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm not expecting Derek Carr to play. But I make no drop-off from Carr to Jameis Winston. Either of those two is better than Baker Mayfield. The Saints get Alvin Kamara back from suspension. He'll have fresh legs. Tampa Bay just yielded 201 yards rushing to the Eagles this past Monday. Note that game was played on Monday so the Buccaneers are traveling on a short week. Tampa Bay still has good defenders. But New Orleans has a very good defense. The Saints have held their last six opponents to an average of 13.3 points a game. They haven't allowed more than 20 points in their last 11 games. The Buccaneers rank 25th in total yards, 27th in rushing and third-from-last in red zone touchdown percentage. |
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09-30-23 | Houston v. Texas Tech -8 | 28-49 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show | |
Houston isn't any good this season. Losses to Rice and to TCU by 23 points at home are evidence of that. Texas Tech has had three one-score losses, including one to Oregon. The Red Raiders should be able to take out their frustrations against the Cougars in what will be an emotional setting. They are honoring players and coaches into their Hall of Fame, including the late Mike Leach. I'm fine with Behren Morton taking over at QB for the Red Raiders after Tyler Shough suffered a broken leg last Saturday against West Virginia. Morton has experience having started four games last season. |
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09-29-23 | Toronto v. Winnipeg -7.5 | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 28 h 24 m | Show | |
The spot sets up perfectly for Winnipeg to get a semblance of revenge against Toronto. This is the first meeting between the two teams after the Blue Bombers lost by one point to Toronto in last year's Grey Cup. Winnipeg was a five-point favorite in that game. Now the Blue Bombers, off a bye, get the Argonauts at home when Toronto will be resting key players after wrapping up first place in the East Division. Among those Toronto players sitting out is QB Chad Kelly and linebacker Wynton McManis, a key defensive cog. |
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09-26-23 | Sun v. Liberty -9 | Top | 77-84 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 60 m | Show |
New York picked a bad time to play its worst game of the season. That came this past Sunday in Game 1 of its semifinal playoff series against Connecticut. The Sun whipped the Liberty, 78-63. While it was the Liberty's worst showing of the season, it was the Sun's most consistent game of the season, according to their coach, Stephanie White. Connecticut is the best defensive team in the WNBA. But New York is the second-highest scoring team in the league and also ranks No. 2 in field goal percentage. The Liberty got the better of the Sun in all four of their regular-season games, winning by an average margin of 15 points. The Liberty are 35-9 counting the postseason. They haven't lost two straight games all season. The Liberty won their next game following a defeat by an average of 16.3 points. So I see New York beating the Sun by double-digits. |
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09-25-23 | Eagles -4.5 v. Bucs | Top | 25-11 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
The record shows both the Eagles and Buccaneers to be 2-0. But the Buccaneers are at least two levels behind Philadelphia. The Eagles, too, are on an extra rest having played in the Week 2 Thursday game. The Eagles are due to play better as their players adjust to new coordinators. The extra rest and practice time should come in handy for them here. Tampa Bay has beaten the winless Bears and winless Vikings. The Buccaneers are plus 5 in turnover ratio during these victories. The Buccaneers' defense still has good players, but it's not great anymore. I'm not buying the early hype on Baker Mayfield either. He's looked better than he did the previous couple of seasons, but he's still Baker Mayfield with severe limitations. The Eagles not only have the edges at the skill positions - Jalen Hurts is 19-1 in his last 20 regular-season starts - but also have the advantage in the trenches. Philadelphia is the second-leading rushing team and ranks No. 1 in run defense. Mayfield isn't going to have a run game to keep the Eagles' pass rushers honest. The Eagles easily led the NFL in sacks last season with 70. |
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09-24-23 | Texans v. Jaguars -7.5 | 37-17 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 33 m | Show | |
The Jaguars beat the Colts by 10 points opening week despite Indy getting a gift defensive TD. The Colts then defeated the Texans by 11 points in Week 2 in a game that was more lopsided than the final score. Now the Jaguars get the Texans. The oddsmaker and marketplace are down on Jacksonville, though, because of its poor performance against the Chiefs at home last week. But now the Jaguars don't have to worry about Patrick Mahomes or Chris Jones. I see a strong bounce-back effort from the Jaguars at home against a depleted Texans squad. Trevor Lawrence and Calvin Ridley are in for a big game against the Texans, who have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. Out for the Texans are their top cornerback, Derek Stingley, free safety Jalen Pitre and nickel back Tavierre Thomas. Also hurt and out is Denzel Perryman, one of Houston's better linebackers. Houston also has multiple injuries in its offensive line. They may get star left tackle Laremy Tunsil back from a knee injury, but remain without three other projected opening day offensive line starters. The Jaguars' defense is underrated. They gave up 14 points to the Colts' offense and held the Chiefs to 17 points. The Jaguars also have five takeaways, bad news for turnover-prone rookie QB C.J. Stroud. |
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09-23-23 | Iowa +14.5 v. Penn State | 0-31 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 45 m | Show | |
Penn State is getting a lot of love so far this season. Too much in my view given this inflated point spread. Iowa is improved at quarterback. Its defense remains first-rate and I give a checkmark in coaching to the Hawkeyes in a matchup of Kirk Ferentz versus James Franklin. Penn State hasn't faced a defense the caliber of Iowa's yet this season. The Nittany Lions also haven't beaten Iowa by more than six points during the last six seasons. The teams didn't meet last year. Iowa defeated Penn State in 2021 and 2020. The Hawkeyes are 7-2 ATS the last nine times they've been a road 'dog during the regular season. No argument that Penn State has the superior skill position. But the Hawkeyes are always tough in the trenches and they are upgraded at QB this season with the transfer of former Michigan QB Cade McNamara. |
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09-23-23 | Ole Miss v. Alabama -6.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 64 h 47 m | Show | |
Alabama has won 103 out of 112 home games under Nick Saban for 92 percent. It's rare to find the Crimson Tide such a small favorite at home. You have to go back eight years to find the last time Alabama was such a small home favorite. But the Crimson Tide lost a lot of public support when they were upset at home by Texas. I see this as a buy-low spot on Alabama. The Crimson Tide still are loaded at nearly every position and Saban made the right move to go back to Jalen Milroe as his starting QB. Milroe is better than Tyler Buchner. Mississippi's 3-0 record looks good on paper. But the Rebels have played a fairly weak schedule - Mercer, Tulane and Georgia Tech. The Crimson Tide has dominated the Rebels, beating them by an average of more than 33 points per game during the past six meetings. |
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09-22-23 | BC v. Edmonton Elks +6.5 | 37-29 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
BC may not have much left in the tank after pulling out a 41-37 victory against Ottawa last Saturday after staging their greatest home comeback. The Lions were down 19 points after the third quarter and trailed by 16 with 2:22 left. The Lions' final points came on a TD pass with 16 seconds left. Now the Lions have to travel to Edmonton. They are 2-0 against the Elks beating them by a combined, 49-0. That was part of Edmonton's 0-9 start. However, Edmonton has turned around its season with a QB change to Tre Ford. Sparked by Ford, the Elks are 4-1 in their last five games and highly motivated. Edmonton is averaging 30.5 points in its last four games. BC is surrendering an average of 31.5 points in its last four games. |
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09-21-23 | Giants v. 49ers -9.5 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 86 h 45 m | Show |
Through the first six quarters of their season, the Giants were outscored, 60-0. They regrouped to pull out a 31-28 victory against the Cardinals - the worst team in the NFL. Scoring 31 points in the second half to pull out that road victory in the Arizona desert has to take a lot out of the Giants both physically and mentally. They lost their superstar running back, Saquan Barkley, to an ankle injury, too, in that win. The NFL did the Giants no favor by making them the road team for a Thursday game against the 49ers, who are one of the three-best teams in the NFL. I don't see how the Giants can stay within single-digits of the 49ers given the short-week circumstances and the quality of the defenses. Brock Purdy is 10-0 in games he has started and finished for the 49ers. The Giants surrendered four TD's and nearly 400 yards to the pop-gun offense of the Cardinals. Now they go from Joshua Dobbs and his cast of grunts to Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk backed by a real coaching staff. Daniel Jones needs weapons to be successful. He won't have his main one, Barkley. His wide receivers don't frighten anyone least of all the 49ers. This one isn't going to be close. |
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09-21-23 | Georgia State +7 v. Coastal Carolina | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker may know the Power-5 conferences well, but he got this Sun Belt Conference matchup wrong. Coastal Carolina should not be nearly as high as a TD favorite against Georgia State. I downgraded Coastal Carolina with the coaching change from respected Jamey Chadwell to first-year head man Tim Beck. The Chanticleers have had one of the better QB's in the league with Grayson McCall. But so far McCall hasn't been playing as well as he has in the past. He's been picked off twice and sacked seven times. Coastal Carolina is one-dimensional averaging an unimpressive 3.8 yards on the ground. Georgia State thrives on turnovers and is strong at quarterback and running back. The Panthers are 3-0. They've averaged more than two takeaways per game during their last 15 games and have already forced seven turnovers this season. Panthers QB Darren Grainger has a 6-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio while completing 73.4 percent of his passes. Grainger and stud running back Marcus Carroll have combined to rush for 574 yards and nine rushing touchdowns. Coastal Carolina ranks 111th in run defense allowing 174 yards on the ground per game. |
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09-20-23 | Sun -5 v. Lynx | Top | 90-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
Good job by Minnesota taking this WNBA playoff series to a deciding third game. The Lynx are home, but should be bigger underdogs than this. Connecticut is a much better team than Minnesota. The Suns showed that in Game 1 winning by 30 points. The Lynx, though, pulled out an 82-75 win this past Sunday to even the series. Now the Lynx have the Sun's full attention. Connecticut led the WNBA in defense and had the fourth-highest scoring offense. Alyssa Thomas is a strong MVP candidate. She's like the Oscar Robertson of the WNBA with her ability to record triple-double games. Minnesota ranked ninth in scoring and was second-to-last on defense. Trends favor Connecticut, too. The Sun are 4-0 ATS the past four times following a loss and are 15-5-1 the last 21 games when playing on two days rest. The Lynx are 2-5 ATS the last seven times after covering and are 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing with two days rest. |
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09-19-23 | Rockies v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Technically the Padres haven't been eliminated yet from the playoffs. Realistically yes, though, trailing by 5 1/2 games for the final NL wild-card spot with 11 games to go. The underachieving Padres waited too long to put together their first five-game win streak of the season. But the Padres want to achieve some kind of distinction from their disappointing season. That would be to get Blake Snell the Cy Young Award. Snell is a strong candidate for that honor with a 14-9 record and the league's lowest ERA at 2.43 and 217 strikeouts in 167 innings. Snell is 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his last three starts - and that was going against the Dodgers, Astros and Giants. The feeble Rockies are batting .231 on the road. They rank second-to-last in slugging percentage and on-base percentage away from Coors Field. Snell should dominate a youthful, rebuilding Colorado lineup while his teammates should batter Colorado starter Ryan Feltner and a Colorado bullpen that has the highest ERA in the majors at 5.29. Feltner hasn't pitched since May 13 when he sustained a skull fracture after getting hit in the head by a line drive. Feltner is 2-3 on the season with a 5.86 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. The Rockies probably will have Feltner on a pitch count. San Diego is averaging eight runs per game during its last eight games. That hot-hitting definitely should continue here. |
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09-17-23 | Dolphins v. Patriots +3 | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 59 m | Show | |
The Dolphins are not going to draw Bill Belichick's Patriots into a track meet. The Patriots have the superior defense of the two teams. The Patriots offense is improved and the weather conditions are in their favor. So is the situation. Miami has to be at least a little fat-and-happy crisscrossing the country after beating the Chargers in LA last Sunday and now having to fly to the East Coast where the weather conditions will be different with 10-to-15 mile per hour winds. The Patriots drew a bad break when the Eagles caught an early gift TD courtesy of their defense last week. But the Patriots showed their grit coming back from a 16-0 deficit to lose, 25-20, to the Super Bowl runner-up. New England outgained Philadelphia, 385-251. The Patriots forced more three-and-outs than the Eagles had all last season. Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill had monster performances against the Chargers. Tagovailoa passed for 466 yards. Hill caught 11 passes for 215 yards and two TD's against the poorly-schemed Chargers defense. Hill could be the best wide receiver in the AFC. But Belichick isn't going to let this combination beat his team by not paying full attention to Hill like the Chargers failed to do. The Patriots also have the capability of playing ball-control with Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott keeping the chains moving on the ground and the clock running. Mac Jones has upgraded wide receiver depth and much better offensive coaching/play calling than last season with the switch of offensive coordinators from Matt Patricia, a defensive coach, to Bill O'Brien. |
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09-17-23 | Jets v. Cowboys -9.5 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 124 h 40 m | Show |
The timing for this matchup couldn't be worse for the Jets. They have to travel on a short week following their roller-coaster emotional Monday night home upset overtime victory against the Bills. Their opponent happens to be the Cowboys, who I rank with the 49ers as being the best teams in the NFL right now. |
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09-17-23 | Commanders v. Broncos -3 | 35-33 | Loss | -125 | 67 h 18 m | Show | |
Give me the 0-1 home team versus the 1-0 road team. Give me the Denver defense instead of the Commanders offense. These are the main two factors why I like the Broncos to defeat the Commanders by more than a field goal at Mile High Stadium. Washington was nip-and-tuck with Arizona, by far the worst team in the NFL, before pulling out a 20-16 home win last week. Commanders QB Sam Howell was sacked six times and committed two turnovers in that loss. The Commanders were turnover-prone last season committing 23. They still are turnover-prone and the veteran, savvy Denver defense knows how to take advantage. Russell Wilson didn't set the world ablaze in last Sunday's loss to the Raiders, but he was improved under Sean Payton. Wilson completed 27-of-34 passes for 177 yards and two TD's. I'm expecting Wilson to be much better this season. He's showing signs of that. Payton gives the Broncos more credibility on offense than they've had in the past. |
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09-17-23 | Giants -5.5 v. Cardinals | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 44 m | Show | |
The Giants are going from playing arguably the best team in the NFL, Dallas, to the undisputed worst, the Cardinals. |
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09-16-23 | Wyoming +30 v. Texas | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 56 h 58 m | Show |
Kudos to Texas for upsetting Alabama on the road last week. That victory vaulted the Longhorns into a top-five rating in the AP poll for the first time since 2010. It also puts the Longhorns in danger of letting down against Wyoming, especially since they have a bigger game on deck when they play at Baylor next week to begin Big 12 Conference play. Texas has great skill position talent, but Wyoming isn't getting enough respect. The Cowboys are a solid Mountain West Conference program under Craig Bohl. They've gone bowling five of the past six years, not including the 2020 shortened Covid season. Wyoming is 2-0. The Cowboys are 8-2-1 ATS the last two plus seasons when taking a field goal or more. They've already scored one major upset this year defeating Texas Tech, 35-33 in overtime, as 13 1/2-point home 'dogs. The Cowboys are not flashy. But they have a solid defense, can run the ball effectively and have a competent QB in Andrew Peasley. |
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09-16-23 | Tennessee v. Florida +6 | 16-29 | Win | 100 | 27 h 58 m | Show | |
I find Tennessee and its quarterback, Joe Milton, to be overrated. Considering the Volunteers haven't won at Florida since 2003, I'm going to take this many points with the Gators. Tennessee only beat Austin Peay, 30-13, last Saturday as a 48 1/2-point home favorite. The Governors were within 10 points still in the fourth quarter. That raises a big red flag. Wisconsin transfer QB Graham Mertz is getting more accustomed to operating Florida's offense. |
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09-16-23 | Western Kentucky +30 v. Ohio State | 10-63 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm not sold so far on Ohio State. I find the Buckeye overpriced against a Western Kentucky team that is very potent on offense with a very good quarterback. Throw in a look-ahead sport for Ohio State with its marquee matchup against Notre Dame up next and I'll take this many points with the Hilltoppers. Who has Ohio State played? Nobody really. The Buckeyes are 2-0 with wins against Indiana, a lower tier Big Ten team, and Youngstown State. Ohio State didn't cover in either game. Kyle McCord has emerged as Ohio State's starting QB, but he's unproven. The Buckeyes' running game ranks 88th. Austin Reed is anything but unproven. He led the nation in passing yards for Western Kentucky with 4,744 last season. He had a 40-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio and scored another eight TD's rushing. The Hilltoppers are averaging 46.5 points this year in rolling past South Florida and Houston Christian.
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09-16-23 | Minnesota v. North Carolina -7.5 | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 73 h 14 m | Show | |
Athan Kaliakmanis follows Tanner Morgan in a long line of stiff Minnesota quarterbacks. He can't trade points against college superstar Drake Maye.
North Carolina's defense may be better than expected after limiting South Carolina to minus two yards rushing while sacking Gamecocks quarterback Spencer Rattler nine times two weeks ago in its opener. Never has Minnesota defeated a top Top 25 team on the road under P.J. Fleck, who is in his seventh season. The Tar Heels rank 20th in the country. Maye will take advantage of Minnesota's inexperienced linebackers and the Gophers' weak schedule. |
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09-15-23 | Dream v. Wings -6 | 0-2 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
Dallas is at least a tier higher than Atlanta and should cover this mid-range number. The Wings swept Atlanta in the three regular-season meetings winning by an average of 10.6 poins. The teams just met five days ago in Atlanta to close out the regular season and the Wings smashed the Dream, 94-77. The Wings have a height advantage that the Dream hasn't been able to overcome. Atlanta is fortunate to even be in the postseason. The Dream picked up the fifth seed when Indiana defeated Minnesota on the final day of the regular-season. |
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09-11-23 | Bills v. Jets +2.5 | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
Are the Jets ready for prime time? The answer is yes and they'll prove that here. Buffalo could only average 18.5 points in its two games against the Jets when the teams split last season. The Jets defense looks even better this season and their offense is far better with Aaron Rodgers on board. The prideful Rodgers is at his best when he feels he has something to prove after being with the Packers for 15 seasons. During his time in Green Bay, Rodgers was a home underdog just eight times as a starting quarterback. The Packers covered seven of those eight games. Rodgers is rejuvenated and has better weapons than he's had with emerging superstar wide receiver Garrett Wilson, running backs Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook along with his two Green Bay security blankets, Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb. Buffalo's defense is down from last season with linebacker Tremaine Edmunds gone, edge pass rusher Von Miller injured and the secondary aged and banged-up. I like the Jets' roster better than Buffalo's. Jets fans haven't been this excited about their team's Super Bowl chances since Joe Namath was making bold predictions. New York's home field is worth more than it normally is given these Monday night and Rodgers' Jets debut circumstances. Getting points is just a bonus. |
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09-10-23 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Giants | 40-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show | |
It's easy to rip on the Cowboys for their lack of playoff success. But what about the Giants and Daniel Jones? They don't get a pass now that they've become playoff contenders under Brian Daboll. After a fast start, the Giants finished 3-6-1 last season. Opponents started keying on Saquan Barkley, holding him to an average of 58 yards rushing during the final 10 games. Jones failed to pick up the slack. When it comes to prime time, Danny Dimes should be Danny Pennies. Jones is 1-10 in prime-time games. Jones threw only 15 TD's passes last season. He's not as good as Dak Prescott. The Giants aren't as talented as the Cowboys on either side of the ball. So there's no reason to overthink this matchup. Dallas is 11-1 in its last dozen games versus the Giants. This includes a pair of victories last season by seven and eight points, respectively. Prescott has weapons. I rate Tony Pollard ahead of Barkley. CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks give the Cowboys the two best wide receivers. Jones' major receiving weapon, tight end Darren Waller, is questionable with a hamstring. |
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09-10-23 | Packers +1 v. Bears | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 51 m | Show | |
Green Bay is flat out the better team. The Packers were five games better than Chicago last season. Does Aaron Rodgers make that big of a difference? Rodgers didn't have a good year by his lofty standards. Jordan Love, surrounded by a top-10 offensive line and exciting skill position talent and stud running back Aaron Jones, is serviceable at the very minimum. That's enough to beat the Bears, who can't compare to the Packers in either the offensive line or defensive line. Justin Fields can be a highlight reel. But Chicago is 5-20 SU, 8-16-1 ATS in his 25 starts. Love can throw downfield. Fields has yet to prove he can. Green Bay has owned the Bears, too, winning 13 of the last 14. Sure much of that was Rodgers. But the Packers play the Bears with a lot of confidence. Green Bay wants to show right away it can win with Love and are no longer dependent on Rodgers. |
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09-10-23 | Bucs +5.5 v. Vikings | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 69 h 9 m | Show | |
Don't get suckered by the Vikings 13-4 record last season. They were the luckiest team in the NFL going 11-0 in one-score games. They actually had a negative season point differential. The Vikings aren't good enough to lay this many points. Only once since Week 2 of last year did the Vikings beat an opponent by more than eight points. They were 2-5 ATS as favorites of four or more points. The Buccaneers are the much better defensive team. Minnesota ranked 31st in pass defense last season. Baker Mayfield could surprise this season. He's a good passing fit for Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, who are due for bounce-back seasons. Tom Brady threw a lot of passes last season, but he wasn't that effective. |
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09-10-23 | Jaguars -5 v. Colts | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 66 h 24 m | Show | |
The Colts haven't won a season opener in 10 years. Don't look for that streak to end this year against Jacksonville. The Jaguars established themselves as a Super Bowl contender going 8-3 down the stretch while beating the Chargers in the postseason before falling to eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City in the divisional round of the playoffs. Jacksonville should be even better this season. Trevor Lawrence improves each season and he has an upgrade in weapons with Calvin Ridley, a top-15 wide receiver, and good-looking rookie running back Tank Bisby for short-yardage situations. I'm not an Anthony Richardson-backer - at least at this embryonic stage of his NFL career. He's not ready to be an NFL starter. He made only 13 starts at Florida and was very inaccurate. His 53.8 completion percentage ranked 13th out of 14 SEC starting quarterbacks. The Jaguars are not stupid. They'll be aware of his mobility and running ability. Making matters more difficult for Richardson is he doesn't have stud runner Jonathan Taylor to take the pressure off. The Jaguars enter this season extremely confident. Jacksonville coach Doug Pederson is ultra-aggressive. He's not the type to let up with a lead, which is what you're looking for in a favorite. |
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09-10-23 | Texans v. Ravens -9 | 9-25 | Win | 100 | 64 h 16 m | Show | |
The Ravens haven't had nearly as many receiving weapons as they do now in the Lamar Jackson era. Baltimore is going to be aggressive, too, throwing the ball under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. Jackson is not only the league's top dual-threat QB when healthy, which he is now, but he has a healthy Rashod Bateman, a top-two tight end in Mark Andrews, a rejuvenated Odell Beckhamim Jr. and exciting big-play wide receiver rookie Zay Flowers. I don't see how the Texans can stay anywhere close to Baltimore with rookie QB C.J. Stroud making his NFL debut on the road and with a cluster injury problem in Houston's offensive line.
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09-09-23 | Temple +8.5 v. Rutgers | 7-36 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 31 m | Show | |
Rutgers beat a horrible, rudderless Northwestern team, 24-7, last week. Apparently the oddsmaker thinks that's a big deal judging by how many points the Scarlet Knights are favored by here. Let's not forget Rutgers losing eight of its last nine games last year, including getting blown out by Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Minnesota and Maryland. Temple could surprise in the AAC with 16 returning starters. The Owls have one of the conference's better QB's in E.J. Warner, son of Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner. The teams met last season. Rutgers was outgained by 58 yards, but managed to slip past the Owls, 16-14. The Scarlet Knights are 1-8 ATS off a double-digit point spread cover. |
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09-09-23 | Wisconsin -5.5 v. Washington State | 22-31 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 43 m | Show | |
This is a huge revenge spot for Wisconsin. The Badgers were stunned at home by Washington State last year, 17-14. That also was during the second week of the season. The Badgers, though, should have won. They outgained the Cougars by 148 yards and had a 38:02 to 21:58 advantage in time of possession. However, the Badgers turned the ball over three times and missed two field goals. Don't look for the Badgers to be that sloppy again. They are focused, motivated and have upgraded their coaching going from conservative and stale Paul Chryst to Luke Fickell. Wisconsin also improved greatly at quarterback going from disappointing Graham Mertz to SMU transfer Tanner Mordecai, who threw 72 touchdown passes for the Mustangs in two seasons. Cameron Ward had a huge game for Washington State leading the Cougars to a 50-24 win against Colorado State. The Cougars couldn't get a ground attack going, though, They ran the ball 37 times against the Rams and could average 2.4 yards per carry. Unlike Washington State, the Badgers are balanced. They have one of the running back tandems in the country with Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi. |
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09-08-23 | Hamilton v. Ottawa -4 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
Desperation versus exhaustion should spell a win and cover for host Ottawa. The Redblacks are in circle-the-wagons mode having lost five in a row with three of those defeats coming by a combined seven points. They have double revenge against Hamilton and fully realize this is their last week at getting an opponent that has a losing record. The rest of Ottawa's schedule is against foes that currently all have winning records. There should not be any excuse for the Redblacks because this is a golden spot for them. They were idle last week, while the Tiger-Cats are on a very short week having played rival Toronto this past Monday. The Tiger-Cats went all out trying to come back from a 17-0 deficit before losing to the Argonauts, 41-28. Hamilton gives up the second-most points per game in the league at 27.5 while ranking third-from-the-bottom in total defensive yards. Ottawa dual threat Dustin Crum is a good enough quarterback to take advantage. |
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09-07-23 | Lions v. Chiefs -4 | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 29 m | Show |
I'll take this tradeoff of probably no Travis Kelce for a drop in the betting line. Patrick Mahomes can make any receiving group look good. The guys he has minus Kelce are not big names, but they all have special skill-sets and talents. I include Kadarius Toney (yes he's currently healthy), Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdes Scantling, Rashee Rice and running back Jerick McKinnon out of the backfield on this list. Keep in mind, too, who Mahomes is facing. The Lions came on strong at the end of last season, but their defense is very weak. Detroit gave up the most yards last season and ranked 28th in scoring defense. The Lions' new look secondary is vulnerable to Mahomes. The Chiefs are 5-0 SU, 4-1 with Mahomes as their starting quarterback opening week, winning by an average of 13 points. The Chiefs have scored at least 33 points in each of their last five season-openers. It's not a fluke the Chiefs are 9-1 in their season-openers under Andy Reid, who could be the best coach ever with extra time to prepare. The Chiefs won six of those nine games by double-digits. Player Prop: David Montgomery Over 51.5 yards rushing. The Lions are looking to have a balanced offense. That's why they signed David Montgomery and drafted Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick. Montgomery is going to get the most carries. The Lions already have said they don't want to overuse Gibbs early in the season and that he'll be used a lot for catching passes. Jamaal Williams led the Lions in rushing last season with 1,066. That was 11th-highest in the NFL. It comes out to 62.7 yards per game. Detroit preferred Montgomery above Williams. The Chiefs finished 11th in run defense, giving up 107.2 yards rushing per game. That number shoots up 20 yards higher if star defensive lineman Chris Jones doesn't play and Jones is a holdout. Look for Montgomery to get enough carries to go Over this number. |
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09-05-23 | Rockies +1.5 v. Diamondbacks | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
Why the Rockies? Arizona rookie Brandon Pfaadt that's why. He's getting the start today. Pfaadt is 1-7 with a 6.21 ERA. Because the Diamondbacks are ridiculously high favorites, I can back the visiting Rockies getting 1 1/2 runs on the run line at a small lay price. Lefty Kyle Freeland hasn't been very good for Colorado at 5-14 with a 5.18 ERA. But I prefer him against Pfaadt. Freeland isn't pitching at Coors Field and he's stepping down in class after getting shelled by the powerful Braves during his last start. The Braves are the best hitting team against lefties. The Diamondbacks rank in the bottom-nine versus southpaws in slugging percentage and OPS. |
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09-04-23 | Clemson v. Duke +13 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
Thanks to Mike Elko, Duke is more than a basketball school when it comes to sports. Elko has turned the Blue Devils around. Duke went 9-4 in Elko's first season last year after going a combined 5-18 the previous two seasons. The Blue Devils capped off their magical season beating UCF, 30-13, in the Military Bowl. This will be one of the Blue Devil's biggest home football games ever having the national spotlight on them for Labor Day. Clemson hasn't been the dominant power of a few seasons ago. Sure the Tigers have star power. But Duke is no one-year fluke. The Blue Devils have star power, too, including QB Riley Leonard. The dual threat QB accounted for 33 TD's and more than 3,600 yards of total offense last season. Duke retained nearly 100 percent of its offensive production from last season and some very good defensive players, including lineman DeWayne Carter and safety Brandon Johnson. The Blue Devils ranked 28th in rush defense in 2022 and 37th in scoring defense holding foes to 22 points a game. |
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09-03-23 | Mercury v. Lynx -3.5 | Top | 73-86 | Win | 100 | 19 h 42 m | Show |
Phoenix has packed in its season, failing to make the playoffs. The Mercury have lost seven in a row. They are 1-17 on the road. This is their second-to-last road game of the season. |
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09-02-23 | Storm +20 v. Aces | 77-103 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 40 m | Show | |
The Aces aren't blowing out any opponents as they rest up for the playofs. Las Vegas is just 3-4 in its last seven games. The Aces haven't won by more than 13 points during their last eight games. Aces coach Becky Hammon has had to use her bench far more this deep in the season with Candace Parker out and no long breaks between games. This is the Aces' sixth game in 12 days. The Storm is one of the three worst teams in the WNBA. But you wouldn't know that from how the Storm has been hanging in lately. Seattle upset the Sparks two days ago in Los Angeles. The Storm are 7-6 in their last 13 games. Jewell Loyd, the league's top scorer, gives the Storm a chance in every game. |
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09-02-23 | North Carolina v. South Carolina +2.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
South Carolina covered four of its last five regular-season games last year as an underdog, including upsetting then No. 5 Tennessee and No. 7 Clemson straight-up. So the Gamecocks are more than capable of beating North Carolina straight-up as a small 'dog. There's been a lot of preseason publicity about North Carolina QB Drake Maye. He could be a top-three Heisman Trophy contender. The strength of South Carolina's defense is its secondary, though. The Gamecocks have three starters back from a secondary that led the SEC in interceptions last season. South Carolina also has a very good QB, too, in Shane Rattler. He's a gunslinger and facing a Tar Heels secondary that ranked 111th in pass defense. The Gamecocks also get the special teams checkmark thanks to coach Shane Beamer, who like his father, Frank, has outstanding special teams. |
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09-02-23 | Washington State v. Colorado State +10.5 | 50-24 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Double-digit home 'dog with revenge is one reason I like Colorado State. Another is the coach. It took two years for Jay Norvell to build up Nevada. The Rams went 3-9 in Norvell's first season last year. Expect big improvement this season. Colorado State's defense already is solid. The offense is bolstered having a year in Norvell's system and with nine key transfers. Washington State may lack focus traveling and hearing about the breakup of the Pac-12 and where its own football future is. The Cougars also have a vulnerable offensive line that Colorado State can stay competitive against. |
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09-01-23 | Miami-OH +18 v. Miami-FL | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -110 | 266 h 14 m | Show |
I'm not impressed with Miami coach Mario Cristobal. The Hurricanes covered exactly one game last year during his first season as head coach with them. Cristobal is back, but Miami is breaking in new coordinators on both sides of the ball. The Hurricanes also have a much bigger game on deck when they host Texas A&M in Week 2. I doubt they'll want to show much in this game. The RedHawks' offense should be improved with a healthy Brett Gabbert at quarterback. He played only four games last year. |
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08-31-23 | Storm v. Sparks -5.5 | 72-61 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 31 m | Show | |
Holding just a half-game lead on Chicago for the final playoff spot, Los Angeles should have tremendous motivation for this home game against Seattle. It's the Sparks' second-to-last home contest. They finish the regular season with three straight road games. Seattle has Jewell Loyd, the WNBA's leading scorer, but little else. The Storm also lacks incentive having already been eliminated from playoff contention. The Storm have lost three in a row, going 0-2-1 ATS in those games. The Sparks have been a hot point spread team covering 10 of their last 12. They also are 6-1-1 ATS the past eight times hosting Seattle. |
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08-31-23 | Nebraska +7 v. Minnesota | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 31 h 11 m | Show |
Coaching, not talent, has been Nebraska's downfall during the last five years of the ill-fated Scott Frost era. Finally the Cornhuskers brought in a legitimate college football coach in Matt Rhule. Nebraska went 4-8 last year with five of those defeats coming by an average of four points. So now with a huge coaching upgrade and the superior quarterback, I see the Cornhuskers hanging in - if not pulling the outright upset - against Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are a good, but not great team. They also lost a number of key players, including career rushing leader Mo Ibrahim and QB Tanner Morgan, who was a four-year starter. I wasn't a fan of Morgan and am even less enthralled with Minnesota's new starting QB, Athan Kaliakmanis. He has a big arm, but lacks accuracy. He had a 3-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio last year and a completion percentage of only 54.1 percent. Minnesota is a grind-out type of team. Not the kind that can easily cover big point spreads. The Gophers beat Nebraska, 20-13, on the road last season and Nebraska should be better this season. Jeff Sims gives Nebraska an experienced athletic dual-threat at quarterback. Sims compiled more than 5,600 yards of total offense in three seasons at Georgia Tech. Sims now gets to play behind an experienced offensive line with better skill-position talent. So look for a close game here. |
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08-30-23 | Braves -1.5 v. Rockies | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
The Braves not only have the best record in baseball, but they have one of the great offenses of modern times. Atlanta ranks No. 1 in nearly every major category, including runs, batting average, homers and OPS. The Braves have seven players with 20 or more homers. Colorado has one player with more than 15 homers. So it's not a surprise the Braves have absolutely dominated the Rockies winning 12 of the past 13 games, including all six this season. The setting is optimal for another huge Braves' scoring performance. They are playing at Coors Field and going against lefty Kyle Freeland. The Braves are batting .296 against southpaws. The next closest team is hitting .280. The Braves have a .534 slugging percentage versus lefties. The next closest team is at .479. Plus Freeland sucks. He's 5-13 with a 5.00 ERA. That ERA goes up even more to 5.80 when you look at his lifetime ERA against the Braves in seven appearances. The Braves last saw Freeland on June 15. They got to him for seven runs in 4 1/3 innings. Darius Vines is set to make his major league debut for the Braves. He's a wild-card here. But the Braves are known for their wealth of young pitching talent. Vines had a 2.70 ERA in nine minor league starts since recovering from shoulder inflammation at the end of June. The Rockies are bad and unmotivated, losers of eight of their last nine games. So even if Vines doesn't fare well - which I don't think will happen - the Braves' offense still should score a ton of runs to win by multiple runs. |
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08-29-23 | White Sox v. Orioles -1.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
The White Sox are garbage. They are 28 games below .500 because they rank 25th in runs, 26th in ERA and have a dreadful bullpen. Baltimore is the opposite. The Orioles are an American League-best 82-49. They have been the most profitable team for bettors. One reason for this is a below-the-radar pitcher named Dean Kremer. His 4.31 ERA may look unimposing, but Baltimore is 12-3 in his home starts this season. Kremer has made three starts this month at Camden Yards. He's 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA in those outings. The Orioles crushed the listless White Sox, 9-0, on Monday. That was Baltimore's eighth win in its last 10 games. The Orioles can't afford a letdown with just a 2 1/2-game lead on the Rays in the AL East Division. The White Sox are 5-11 in their last 16 games. They've lost by more than one run during each of their past seven defeats. During this span, the White Sox's average loss is by 7.7 runs. I don't see the White Sox getting turned around against this opponent with rookie Jesse Scholtens on the mound. He's 1-6 with a 4.15 ERA. Scholtens is 0-2 with a 7.80 ERA in his last three starts. The White Sox's bullpen, which lacks a legitimate closer, has the fifth-highest ERA in baseball. So I see another kill spot for the Orioles setting up this run line winner. |
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08-27-23 | Ottawa v. Edmonton Elks | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
Edmonton is the worst team in the Canadian Football League and has lost 22 straight home games. But I'm counting on the Elks to put an end to those two horrible marks. Edmonton is riding momentum for the first time this season following a 24-10 road upset victory against Hamilton last week. That road upset win looks even more impressive after Hamilton upset BC - the third-best team in the CFL - as a 12-point road underdog Saturday night. The Elks finally appear to have a decent QB in dual-threat Tre Ford. He threw for 174 yards and two TD's while rushing for 60 yards on five carries in Edmonton's win against Hamilton. The Elks are averaging 26.5 points in their last two games versus Hamilton and Winnipeg, which has the most victories in the CFL this season and gives up the second-fewest points, with offensive coordinator Jarious Jackson taking over the play-calling for Edmonton. Edmonton gets to go against an Ottawa defense that gives up the most passing yards and third-most overall yards. The Redblacks are 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS in their last four games. So the arrow finally is pointing up for an Edmonton home victory. |
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08-26-23 | San Jose State +31 v. USC | 28-56 | Win | 100 | 46 h 14 m | Show | |
Yes, Caleb Williams is the Heisman Trophy frontrunner. But USC has a suspect defense that permitted nearly 28 points a game last season. San Jose State can produce points against this caliber of defense. The well-coached Spartans have the top quarterback in the Mountain West Conference in Chevan Cordeiro. He's one of nine returning offensive starters for San Jose State. Cordeiro accounted for 32 TD's last season and threw for 3,251 yards. The Spartans are capable of getting stops against Williams. They have size at cornerback and an excellent safety in Tre Jenkins. The Williams' Heisman hype has made this point spread too lopsided. |
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08-26-23 | Hawaii v. Vanderbilt -17 | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 170 h 55 m | Show |
Vanderbilt buried Hawaii, 63-10, in last year's season-opener in Hawaii. No, the Commodores aren't likely to win by 53 points again. But they should be able to cover this margin at home. The Commodores went 5-7 last season, while posting SEC upset victories against Florida and Kentucky during the last three weeks of the season. Vanderbilt has a number of good returning veterans on offense. Hawaii had one of the worst defenses in the country in 2022 giving up 34.7 points - ranking 124th - and were 115th in total defense. After averaging fewer than 20 points a game last season, Hawaii is going to a run-and-shoot offense in Timmy Chang's second year as the Rainbow Warriors' head coach. It's going to take time for this new offense to click. Vanderbilt holds edges all across the board. |