Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-06-19 | Louisiana Tech v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 72-69 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
I don't understand this line. But I'll certainly take advantage of it. Louisiana Tech is great when playing at home as evidenced by a 15-1 mark. However, the Bulldogs are 3-10 on the road. They have lost their last eight road games. This includes a 69-61 loss to Florida Atlantic on Jan. 31. The Owls won that game despite shooting just 36 percent from the floor. Florida Atlantic outrebounded Louisiana Tech, 43-31. Louisiana Tech has lost and failed to cover its last two games, falling to Marshall, 90-79, as seven-point home favorites and losing, 83-76, as 1 1/2-point road favorites against Florida International this past Sunday. The Bulldogs are 7-16 ATS the past 23 times following a loss. Florida Atlantic should come in with a lot of energy and confidence. The Owls last played on Thursday when they defeated North Texas, 60-54, as eight-point road 'dogs pushing their record to 17-12. Kudos to first-year Florida Atlantic coach Dusty May as that victory ensured the Owls of their first winning season since 2010-11. The Owls have won and covered three of their last four games.
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03-05-19 | Utah State v. Colorado State +7 | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
Ambush time for Colorado State. The Rams have covered 11 of their last 15 Mountain West Conference matchups, including three of the last four. They draw Utah State off a huge home win from Saturday against Nevada in what was an intense, bitterly fought game. That victory moved the Aggies into first place in the Mountain West and puts them in a letdown spot here. The Rams have revenge motivation and are playing for playoff seeding in the Mountain West Conference Tournament. |
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03-05-19 | Thunder +2.5 v. Wolves | 120-131 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
It's a huge plus if Paul George can play for Oklahoma City. He has missed the past three games due to shouder soreness. But I like the Thunder as a 'dog even if George doesn't play. The Thunder still are the better team and have double revenge for a pair of close losses to the Timberwolves. Oklahoma City got out of its funk - a four-game losing streak - by coming from 13 points down to beat the Grizzlies, 99-95, at home. The Thunder have three tough road games following this game - Trail Blazers, Clippers and Jazz. So focus shouldn't be an issue. Minnesota has dropped three in a row. I'm far from sold on Timberwolves interim coach Ryan Saunders.
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03-04-19 | Texas +8.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 51-70 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
Texas Tech and Kansas State are tied for the Big 12 Conference lead with 12-4 league marks. The Red Raiders are 24-5 overall, while Texas is 8-8 in the Big 12 and 16-13 overall. So record-wise this line looks right. But I see this matchup being much closer than what the oddsmaker anticipates. Texas Tech is 16-1 at home, but has a losing home point spread mark. The Longhorns are 4-10 in games decided by six points or less. Their eight conference defeats have been by a combined 30 points for an average loss of 3.7 points. The Big 12 is a tough conference. Texas is a likley NCAA Tournament team with victories against North Carolina, Purdue, Kansas and a 17-point win against Iowa State in its last game this past Saturday. But the Longhorns can't assume anything. So they will be playing hard, too. Note that the Longhorns steamrolled Iowa State despite not having leading scorer Kerwin Roach, who is suspended. It's a plus if Roach is reinstated for this game, but I'm not counting on that. The Longhorns have covered their last four road games. They also are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have won the past three in the series, including 68-62 on Jan. 12, but their average victory margin in these three matchups is four points.
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03-04-19 | Hawks v. Heat -8 | 113-114 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
The Hawks are headed to the lottery. So there aren't many letdown spots for them. This is one of those rare situations. The Hawks lost to the Bulls in a crazy four overtime game on Friday. Atlanta got its revenge on Sunday defeating the Bulls, 123-118, in Chicago. It was a chippy game with a lot of intensity. Atlanta achieved that victory without its leading scorer and rebounder, John Collins. He is ill and not expected to play today. The Hawks also are down two other big men with center Miles Plumlee out with a knee injury and power forward Omari Spellman sidelined with an ankle injury. The Hawks are 2-7 ATS following a victory. They also are 2-8 ATS when playing without rest. Both of those angles are at work here. The key, though, is trusting the Heat. Miami has been disappointing this season. Right now the Heat are outside of a playoff spot. The Heat have not played well at home. So can they be trusted? I believe they can for this matchup. The Heat are coming off a 117-88 home victory against the Nets from Saturday. That was Miami's most lopsided victory of the season and should provide some confidence. The Heat have added incentive, too, being in triple revenge mode against the Hawks. Yep, the Hawks are 3-0 versus the Heat this season. If Miami fails to make the postseason it could point to its multiple losses to the lowly Hawks, who have the fifth-worst record in the NBA at 22-42. I'm not expecting Goran Dragic to play. There is a possibility Hassan Whiteside returns to Miami's lineup. Both are game-time decisions. I'm fine laying points if neither plays. The Heat didn't need them when they destroyed the Nets by 29 points. Power forward Kelly Olynyk stepped up scoring 25 points versus the Nets and Bam Adebayo is an underrated backup center.
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03-03-19 | Magic -6.5 v. Cavs | 93-107 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Often it's not who you play, but when you play them. That's the case in this matchup. Orlando upset Golden State on Thursday and then came back to knock off the Pacers on the road Saturday night. Those victories moved the Magic into a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. This is really heady stuff for Orlando. The Magic have another big game on Tuesday facing the 76ers on the road. But first comes this away matchup versus the lowly Cavaliers. I don't see this being an easy game for Orlando, which is in a major letdown spot. The Cavaliers has a winning record in its last seven games sparked by the return of Kevin Love. Cleveland rested Love on Saturday and were embarrassed at home, 129-93, by the Pistons. Love is slated to play here and the Cavaliers won't lack motivation after laying an egg at home last night. The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS following a non-cover and have covered 10 of the past 15 times when playing without rest. The first meeting between the teams was very close with the Magic coming from five points down in the final 40 seconds to pull out a 102-100 home win back in November. Evan Fournier hit a jumper at the buzzer to win the game.
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03-03-19 | Marshall +5 v. North Texas | Top | 85-82 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
Revenge, much better current form and line value. Those three factors heavily line up in Marshall's favor here. The Thunder Herd lost 78-51 to North Texas on the road. That occurred on Feb. 7. The Mean Green haven't won since going 0-5 SU and ATS. They are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games. Marshall, by contrast, has started to play better winning its past two games. The Thundering Herd upset Louisiana Tech, 90-79, on the road in their last game this past Thursday. Jon Elmore showed why he's one of the best players in Conference USA by scoring 34 points for Marshall in that victory. Marshall is strong offensively averaging 79.9 points a game, which ranks 36th in the country. That's nine more points per game than North Texas scores per game. Defense is Marshall's weakness. North Texas, however, is struggling to score. The Mean Green are averaging a meager 54.4 points in their last five games, failing to reach the 60-point mark in any of their last five games.
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03-02-19 | Boise State v. UNLV -2 | 81-85 | Win | 100 | 19 h 18 m | Show | |
The Rebels beat Boise State, 83-72, on the road on Feb. 6 and certainly are capable of beating the Broncos at home. The Rebels are a basket away from being 4-1 in their last five games. Boise State, on the other hand, has fallen apart going 1-6 in its last seven games with losses in their past four games. The Broncos' lone win during this span is against San Jose State, the worst team in the Mountain West Conference. Boise State also could be minus its third-leading scorer as guard Derrick Alston is questionable with a toe injury.
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03-02-19 | Bucks v. Jazz -3.5 | 111-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Surprised by this line considering the Bucks have won seven in a row and 19 of their last 21? Don't be. This is the mother of bad spots for Milwaukee. The Bucks are coming off a Friday night victory against the Lakers in which they had to rally late to win in a game that was far closer than the 131-120 final indicates. This marks Milwaukee's fourth road game in six days and this one is in high altiutde. The Bucks have a horrible history, too, playing at Salt Lake City. They are 1-4 ATS the past five times they've visited and haven't won there since John Stockton and Karl Malone roamed the court. Utah is playing well, too. The Jazz are 17-6 in their last 23 games and have won three in a row, including defeating the Nuggets, 111-104, on the road Thursday.
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03-02-19 | Warriors -5 v. 76ers | 120-117 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
Enough is enough. The Warriors aren't going to lose three in a row after getting upset by the Magic and Heat. The 76ers are not in the Warriors' class. They aren't close to their level without Joel Embiid, who remains out. The 76ers also will be without their other rim protector with center Boban Marjanovic out, too. Golden State is in stop-the-pain mode and also has revenge for a home loss suffered to the Warriors. The Warriors will be missing Klay Thompson, but get Andre Iguodala back in the lineup. |
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03-02-19 | Texas-Arlington -3 v. Troy State | Top | 79-66 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
Texas Arlington is 10-6 in the Sun Belt Conference. The Mavericks are in must-win mode trailing Texas State by two games for the top spot. The Mavericks host Texas State next Saturday in their final regular season game. Texas State is a small road favorite against South Alabama today in a game that tips off five hours later than this one. Texas Arlington beat Texas State in the first meeting this season. So the Mavericks should be going all out here in order to potentially set up a first-place showing matchup next Saturday. Troy is last in the Sun Belt at 4-11. The Trojans couldn't withstand the suspension of forward Jordon Varnado, their leading scorer and second-leading rebounder. Varnado averages 21.5 points a game. Troy's second-leading scorer, Alex Hicks, averages 12.5 points. The Trojans are 1-5 SU and ATS since losing Varnado. Troy hasn't been good in the Sun Belt for a while now going 3-12-1 ATS in their past 16 conference games. The Trojans have lost the past two times to the Mavericks, including 86-76 this past Jan. 4.
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03-01-19 | Blazers v. Raptors -5 | Top | 117-119 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
Kudos to Portland on a great road trip - so far. The Trail Blazers are 4-0 on their road swing following a 99-92 victory against the struggling Celtics on Wednesday. So you can't blame the Trail Blazers if they feel fat and happy right now. Now, though, Portland draws Toronto. The Raptors went 8-1 in February concluding the month with an impressive 118-95 home blowout victory against the Celtics on Tuesday. Toronto is 26-6 at home. The Raptors draw the Trail Blazers playing in their fifth road game in nine days. So the Trail Blazers have a fatigue factor working against them, which isn't helped by swingman Evan Turner and center Enes Kanter not available to play. Portland has lost in its last three visits to Toronto going 1-2 ATS with its losing margin being 11 points. The Raptors have added motivation for this nonconference matchup. They lost 128-122 to Portland on Dec. 14. Point guard Kyle Lowery missed that game. |
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02-28-19 | Jazz v. Nuggets -6 | 111-104 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
Denver owns the best home record in the NBA at 27-4. The Nuggets have covered 71 percent of those games, too, going 22-9 ATS at Pepsi Center. Next up for Denver is Utah, a team it has dominated at home. The Nuggets are 5-0 SU and ATS the past five times hosting the Jazz, including whipping them, 103-88, at Pepsi Center this season. The Jazz are weak on the road at 14-16. The Nuggets have a strong frontcourt with Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap. Their backcourt is solid with lots of depth due to the return of Gary Harris and Isaiah Thomas. The Nuggets have more scoring weapons and their defense has improved enough to be on par with Utah's. Each team gives up 106 points a game. The Jazz have to play a second straight night in high altitude while the Nuggets were idle Wednesday.
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02-28-19 | Long Beach State +8.5 v. UC-Santa Barbara | 69-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
If you go by won-lost records then this point spread is justified. Long Beach State is 11-18 overall and 5-8 in the Big West Conference. Cal Santa Barbara is 19-8 and 8-5 in league. Current form-wise, though, these teams are much closer than this point spread shows. The spot sets up well for Long Beach State, too. Oddsmakers don't have time to do in-depth study on minor conferences such as the Big West. They are assigning their point spread number based almost entirely on their power rankings. But now the 49ers are playing their finest basketball. They are 3-2 in their last five games, including winning their past two. Prior to last week, the 49ers had dropped eight of nine. Note, though, that five of those defeats occurred by seven points or fewer. Their last four defeats have been by an average of four points. Sophomore wing Jordan Roberts has helped spark this improvement scoring double digits during in each of the last three games after failing to reach that figure in 22 of the first 26 games. Santa Barbara was a level higher than Long Beach during the first half of the season. The Gauchos had aspirations to win the Big West title. But that's not going to happen. Santa Barbara won't be able to catch UC Irvine with only three regular season games left. The Gauchos are just about locked into a top-four spot. Long Beach State is 1 1/2 games out of fifth place in the Big West. The 49ers have incentive to finish fifith in the conference in order to gain a more favorable conference seeding. The Gauchos haven't been good in these type of situations. They are 1-7 ATS the past eight times going against sub .500 opponents and have failed to cover in five of their past seven home games. The 49ers average nearly two more points per game than the Gauchos. They also have covered in their last four road contests. Long Beach State is undervalued here and a very live 'dog in my view. |
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02-28-19 | USC v. UCLA -3 | 88-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
UCLA is a better and different team than when it lost 80-67 to USC on Jan. 19. The Bruins had won the four previous games in the series. I see them bouncing back here. The Bruins are 12-5 ATS versus opponents sporting a losing road record. USC is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games versus opponents who have a winning home floor.
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02-28-19 | Old Dominion +1.5 v. Texas-San Antonio | 65-64 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Old Dominion has lost just once in its last 12 games. That loss, though, occurred to Texas San Antonio. I see the Monarchs getting their revenge here. Old Dominion shot just 30 percent from the field in that defeat while the Roadrunners were on fire from long distance connecting on 16 of 31 3-pointers. The Monarachs are the superior defense ranking in the top-10 in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. |
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02-27-19 | Marquette v. Villanova -5 | 61-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
I want Villanova going for me at home in desperate need of revenge and a victory. The Wildcats have lost three in a row. All of those defeats were on the road. They also lost to Marquette by one point on the road on Feb. 9. The Wildcats are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games. They have covered six of the past eight times versus Marquette.
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02-27-19 | Bulls v. Grizzlies -3 | 109-107 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 32 m | Show | |
Even in a down season such as this one the Grizzlies have two things going for them: Strong defense and a noticeable home-court advantage. The Grizzlies give up the second-fewest points in the NBA. They also have covered in six of their last seven games at FedEx Forum. Memphis has plenty of motivation for this matchup. The Bulls defeated the Grizzlies, 122-110, in Chicago two weeks ago in the final game before the All-Star break. Otto Porter was huge for Chicago in that win scoring a career-high 37 points. Porter is questionable for this game because of a leg injury. The Bulls also could be minus point guard Kris Dunn due to a migraine. Both players missed the Bulls' last game. Mike Conley didn't play well against the Bulls. He's having a strong season, though, and has been hot scoring 25 or more points in five of his last nine games. Conley gives the Grizzlies a key backcourt edge especially if Dunn is out. The Grizzlies have an underrated frontcourt with recently acquired Jonas Valanciunas and former Bull Joakim Noah, who has produced three consecutive double-doubles, averaging 17.3 points and 10 rebounds in those games. Noah should be psyched to meet his former team. The Grizzlies give up seven fewer points per game than the Bulls. They are home. Have a backcourt edge and short revenge motivation.
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02-26-19 | Magic -6.5 v. Knicks | Top | 103-108 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
The Knicks pleased Spike Lee by upsetting the Spurs on Sunday halting an 18-game home losing streak. But they didn't necessarily please New York management, which is angling for their team to get the No. 1 overall draft pick. I question the Knicks' motivation especially after putting a stop to the worst home losing streak in franchise history. New York has failed to cover the past five times after covering a spread. The Knicks also are 1-8 ATS the last nine times when playing on one day's rest. Orlando usually is in tank mode, too, at this stage of the season. Not this year, though. They are just one-half game behind Charlotte for the final playoff spot in the East. The Magic have achieved this by winning their past five road matchups, including knocking off the Raptors, 113-98, this past Sunday. That pushed the Magic's record to 8-2 in their last 10 games. Unlike the Knicks, the Magic are 7-0 ATS when playing on one day's rest. They have covered five of the last six times against the Knicks, including burying them by 26 points during their last visit to Madison Square Garden on Nov. 11. It's an added plus for the Magic if Knicks center DeAndre Jordan has to miss another game with an ankle injury.
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02-25-19 | Mavs v. Clippers -3.5 | 112-121 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
I want the Clippers going for me here and the price is right to back them. LA is off a 123-96 road loss to the Nuggets on Sunday. Dallas has become a bottom feeder after dealing four of its five best players at the trade deadline. That signalled the Mavericks clear intent to play for next season. The Mavericks are 0-4 in their last four games with all the losses coming by double-digits. Luka Doncic is back in action for Dallas after missing the past two games with a sore ankle. Doncic could be rusty, though.
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02-25-19 | 76ers +1.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 111-110 | Win | 100 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
No Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis probably plays. Know this going in. But don't be intimidated by it. The 76ers have had several games to adjust to Embiid's absence. They still have other stars - Jimmy Butler and Ben Simmons - and won't lack for motivation coming off a 130-115 embarrassing home loss to Portland on Saturday. Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS the past five times coming off a defeat. The Pelicans are not going to make the playoffs. Davis wants out, the team ranks 27th defensively, morale is shot and they don't have much of a home-court advantage anymore. New Orleans is a little fat and happy, too, off a 128-115 home win against the Lakers on Saturday in which Davis didn't play. Even when Davis suits up he doesn't play many minutes anymore because of his trade request issued last month. The Pelicans know Davis won't be with them next season so they don't use him that much. The Pelicans are 3-12-1 ATS following a victory. They are just 3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS in their past eight home contests even with that victory against the Lakers. The 76ers have become more respectable on the road winning and covering four of their last six away matchups. This includes a nine-point victory against Golden State.
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02-25-19 | Spurs +2 v. Nets | 85-101 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
I see the Spurs bouncing back on the final game of their hellish Rodeo road trip after am embarrassing 130-118 loss to the Knicks Sunday. Fatigue isn't a problem for the Spurs following the long All-Star break and they get Derrick White back for this game to help the point guard situation. The Nets are trying to work in Caris LeVert and D'Angelo Russell back together. They are not in sync yet. The Nets are trying to work in Caris LeVert and D'Angelo Russell back together. They are not in sync yet. The Nets are minus 11 in their first two games that Russell and LeVert have been on the court together since LeVert returned from injury.The Spurs have won the last seven meetings in the series and are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 visits to Brooklyn. |
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02-25-19 | Pacers +3 v. Pistons | 109-113 | Loss | -112 | 21 h 28 m | Show | |
I am often attracted to the better team getting points. That's the case here. Indiana is 8-1 in its last nine games. The Pacers surrender nearly five fewer points per game than the Pistons. Indiana has covered in eight of its last 11 games versus Detroit, including smashing the Pistons, 125-88, in its first meeting this season on Dec. 28. Detroit is playing well, too. The Pistons are 6-1 in their last seven games. This spurt has elevated them into a playoff spot right now. So they actually could have a letdown after burying the Heat, 119-96, on the road Saturday. Among the Pistons' past six wins were two victories against the Knicks, one versus the Hawks and one against Miami. The Pistons don't step up well. They are 3-9-1 ATS the past 13 instances when facing above .500 opponents. |
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02-24-19 | Michigan State v. Michigan -3.5 | 77-70 | Loss | -130 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
I am riding MIchigan here. The Wolverines are 16-0 at home. They have covered six of their last seven home games and have owned the Spartans recently beating them by double digits during each of the past three meetings. |
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02-24-19 | Magic +9.5 v. Raptors | Top | 113-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
Unlike the past few years, the Magic come out of All-Star break very live to make the playoffs. Orlando is playing well going 7-2 SU and ATS in its last nine games. The Raptors do not have a good history in this type of spot and have failed to cover in two previous meetings versus the Magic, winning 93-91 as seven-point road favorites on Nov. 20 and losing 116-87 as five-point road favorites on Dec. 28. Nikola Vucevic had 30 points and 19 rebounds in that Orlando victory. Vucevic gives the Magic the best big man on the floor. Toronto may not have its full intensity coming off an emotional, 120-117, home win against Kawhi Leonard's former team the Spurs this past Friday. The Raptors have failed to cover 11 of the last 16 times when meeting a foe with a sub .500 record. Toronto also is 10-20 ATS the last 30 times when favored. Orlando has covered in six of its past seven road contests.
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02-23-19 | Kings +7 v. Thunder | 119-116 | Win | 100 | 18 h 15 m | Show | |
First off, Sacramento is one of the most improved teams in the league. The Kings have played 58 games - 70 percent of the season - and are above .500 just two games out of a playoff spot. The Kings have emerging young talent and they bolstered that at the trade deadline picking up solid pros Harrison Barnes, Alec Burks and Corey Brewer. So the Kings are capable of hanging in against Oklahoma City. But Sacramento also catches a break because the Thunder just nipped Utah, 148-147, in double overtime at home in a game that concluded late Friday night. The Thunder had four of their starters log more than 40 minutes with Paul George playing 50 minutes. The Thunder won in dramatic style on a basket by George with less than a second left. Sacramento has a strong recent history versus Oklahoma City covering in six of the last seven meetings. The Kings also are 6-1 ATS the past seven times playing in Oklahoma City.
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02-23-19 | Florida State +7 v. North Carolina | 59-77 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
Florida State is riding a season-high eight-game win streak. The Seminoles are off a 77-64 road win against Clemson this past Tuesday. They draw North Carolina off an emotional victory against its biggest rival, Duke. Any time the Tar Heels just beat Duke they are ripe for a letdown in their next game. The Seminoles are the best in the ACC in two-point percentage defense. The Tar Heels rank seventh in the ACC in giving up points per 100 possessions.
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02-23-19 | Loyola Marymount -1 v. Pacific | 63-56 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
Loyola Marymount buried Pacific, 60-42, in the first meeting between these teams as six-point favorites as they dominated the boards and the Lions are in a great spot to do it again. The Lions are off losses to Gonzaga and BYU. They have been idle for a week. Pacfic just played on Thursday night where the Tigers lost, 58-32, to St. Mary's. Pacific is averaging just 50 points in its last three games. Loyola Marymount is tough in these spots, too, going 10-4-1 ATS the past 15 times versus a foe with a losing mark.
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02-22-19 | Nuggets -3.5 v. Mavs | 114-104 | Win | 100 | 16 h 5 m | Show | |
Denver is just about at full strength now with the return of underrated shooting guard Gary Harris. The Nuggets hold a solid frontline edge, too, on the Mavericks, who no longer have DeAndre Jordan to protect the rim against emerging superstar Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap. The Mavericks got much worst at the trade deadline. In an effort to set themselves up for the future, the Mavericks dealt four of their five best players. Dallas coach Rick Carlisle is left with star rookie point guard Luka Doncic and a motley collection of role players whose spots in the rotation haven't been fully determined. The Nuggets own the second-best record in the Western Conference. They are clearly the superior team and shouldn't lack for motivation coming off break and with three Western Conference playoff teams looming as their next three opponents. This is a game the Nuggets can't afford to get tripped up on.
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02-22-19 | Harvard -1.5 v. Brown | Top | 79-88 | Loss | -113 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
Yale and Harvard are the class of the Ivy League. Harvard buried Brown, 68-47, as six-point home chalk on Feb. 2. So laying this short price on the road is more than fair. The Crimson have covered 71 percent of their last 33 Ivy League games. Brown has only covered 17 percent of its past 13 Ivy League contests. Harvard also covered 68 percent of its last 22 away matchups and is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings versus Brown. Only once in their last eight games have the Crimson lost. That was against Cornell three games ago and came the day after the Crimson went three overtimes in a victory against Columbia. |
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02-21-19 | Rockets -2.5 v. Lakers | Top | 106-111 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
James Harden, Chris Paul and returning Clint Capela trump LeBron James. That's the bottom line here. The Rockets are back to full health. Paul is in shape and playing well again. Capela is expected to play after missing the last 15 games with a thumb injury. Harden is the MVP of the league scoring 30 or more points in 31 consecutive games. Houston is 21-10 in those games. While the Rockets are among the five best teams in the NBA, the Lakers may not even make the playoffs. They are 3-8 in their last 11 games. James has been back for five games since missing 17 games due to a groin injury. But Lonzo Ball remains out with an ankle injury. The Lakers learned one thing during James' absence - Luke Walton can't coach. Houston is 3-0 versus the Lakers this season after going 4-0 against LA last season. The Rockets also have covered in eight of their past 10 road games versus the Lakers.
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02-21-19 | Blazers -2.5 v. Nets | 113-99 | Win | 100 | 3 h 20 m | Show | |
Now that word has come out that Damian Lillard will play, I'm going to get behind the Trail Blazers. Portland is the better team, plays in the better conference and upgraded its frontcourt recently picking up Enes Kanter, who is quite eager to display his talents having endured a difficult time in New York with the Knicks. Portland is 9-1 ATS following a layoff of three or more days.
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02-21-19 | UCF +8 v. Cincinnati | 55-60 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Central Florida is playing well with three straight victories. Cincinnati is tough at home, but I don't see the Knights being outclassed at all in this matchup. They are getting balanced scoring and play with a great deal of intensity. Both teams are strong defensively ranking among the top 40. So taking this many points is huge. The Bearcats have failed to cover seven of the past 10 times when going against an above .500 opponent.
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02-20-19 | Villanova -5.5 v. Georgetown | Top | 73-85 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
I want Villanova off a rare loss. I also want to fade Georgtown now that they realistically are not going to get a bid to the NCAA Tournament unless it does extremely well in the Big East Conference Tournament. The Hoyas are 1-3 in their last four games and off a 90-75 loss to Seton Hall. Georgetown is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 Big East Conference games. The Hoyas also are 4-12-1 ATS during their past 17 home games versus opponents with a winning road mark. Star guard Phil Booth had a sub-par game against St. John's this past Sunday in a 71-65 road loss. The Wildcats blew an 11-point second half lead against the Red Storm. Jay Wright isn't taking that defeat lightly. Booth should help the Wildcats exploit St. John's youthful backdourt. Booth, the Hoyas' leading scorer at 18.3 points, didn't have a strong game in the first meeting between the two teams on Feb. 3. Yet the Wildcats still won, 77-65, covering as 11 1/2-point home favorites. Villanova has proven itself on the road covering 69 percent of its last 51 away matchups. The Wildcats also have covered the past four times versus Georgetown.
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02-19-19 | Vanderbilt +18 v. Tennessee | 46-58 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
Vandy is on a 13-game losing streak. But the Commodores have hung close in eight of those losses, either leading or trailing by no more than five points in the final four minutes. They nearly upset then top-ranked Tennessee on Jan. 23 losing in overtime. Tennessee just lost it's No. 1 ranking by losing to Kentucky this past Saturday. The Volunteers have to be down about that defeat. The Commodores take this matchup far more serious than the Volunteers.
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02-18-19 | Illinois +11 v. Wisconsin | Top | 58-64 | Win | 100 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
Missing 17 of 21 shots from beyond the arc, Illinois lost 72-60 to Wisconsin on Jan. 23. Since then the Illini have gone 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS as their talented but inexperienced freshmen have matured and become more consistent. The Illini are beating good teams during this stretch, too, knocking off Michigan State, Maryland and Ohio State on the road. While Illinois is coming on, Wisconsin is slipping. The Badgers have lost consecutive games to Michigan and Michigan State. No shame in that, but the Badgers are showing signs of fatigue. They are not a deep team either. Wisconsin wins with great defense. Illinois ranks No. 13, though, in forcing turnovers. The Illini average four more points per game than Wisconsin and can keep this one close. |
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02-16-19 | Northwestern +5 v. Nebraska | 50-59 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 26 m | Show | |
Northwestern is in stop-the-pain mode suffering five straight losses, including close defeats to Iowa and Rutgers in their last two games. The Wildcats lost those two games by a combined four points. I see the Wildcats bouncing back against Nebraska, which has become a point spread nightmare going 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games, including failing to cover in its last six home contests. The Cornhuskers' collapse has coincided with a season-ending injury suffered by forward Isaac Copeland on Jan. 26. He is Nebraska's second leading scorer and rebounder. Nebraska was lucky to end its seven-game losing streak by beating Minnesota in its last game. The Gophers practically handed Nebraska the victory. That won't happen against Northwestern. Bottom line is Nebraska can't be a mid-sized favorite against any Big Ten team right now.
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02-16-19 | Tennessee v. Kentucky -3 | Top | 69-86 | Win | 100 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
I understand the Volunteers have won 19 in a row and are 11-0 in the SEC. But I'm not sold on Tennessee, nor its coach, Rick Barnes. If the Vols win this game, I will be. But I don't see them beating Kentucky on the road. Kentucky's freshmen are starting to mesh. The Wildcats have covered eight of their last nine and are 19-7 ATS the past 26 times going against an opponent with a winning record. The Wildcats will be even more determined to win this game after suffering a 73-71 loss at home to LSU this past Tuesday that ended their 10-game win streak. The Wildcats let a nine-point second-half lead against LSU slip, losing on a tip-in at the buzzer. The Wildcats have the talented shooters to exploit Tennessee's lone real weak spot, their 3-point defense.
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02-15-19 | Northern Kentucky v. Wright State -1 | Top | 77-81 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
This Horizon League showdown is being shown on ESPNU. It's the biggest game of the season for Wright State and I believe the Raiders will be up for the challenge. The Raiders are home and playing their best ball winning seven of their last eight games while going 5-3 ATS. Wright State is 11-2 at home. Northern Kentucky has a losing record on the road and has been very bad point spread-wise away from home covering only three of its last 12 road matchups. The Norse are 1-8 ATS the past nine times when on the road versus an opponent with a winning home record. Northern Kentucky defeated Wright State, 68-64, as 4 1/2-point home favorites on Jan. 11 The Raiders managed to cover despite shooting much worse from the floor than Northern Kentucky, making just three of 15 3-point attempts and shooing seven fewer free throws. Wright State's bench has improved since that defeat. The Raiders also rank 49th in the country in free throw percentage compared to Northern Kentucky, which rates 321st in the nation in free throw accuracy.
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02-14-19 | Thunder -3.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 122-131 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 1 m | Show |
A disinterested superstar who scored three points in his last game. A likely soon-to-be-gone head coach. 27th-rated defense. Low morale. Add it all up and you have the New Orleans Pelicans, losers of 10 of their last 14 games. I don't see the Pelicans regrouping for this matchup, their final one before the week-long All-Star break. Anthony Davis, who scored all of three points in 24 minutes during the Pelicans' excruiating painful-to-watch, 118-88, home loss to the Magic on Tuesday, wants out of New Orleans. It's a given the Pelicans are going to deal him. So Davis isn't putting out and the Pelicans are reducing his minutes not wanting to risk him getting injured. Of course this takes a toll on the Pelicans' chemistry. Alvin Gentry isn't going to get through this as the Pelicans are close to falling apart. A 30-point home loss to the 26-32 Magic doesn't bode well for New Orleans. Neither does a 99-90 road loss to the Grizzlies in their previous game. Oklahoma City is an elite team that is a sizzling 11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS. Russell Westbrook is going for his 11th consecutive triple-double and Paul George has been on fire, too, averaging 38.8 points in his last eight games. New Orleans' bottom-four defense isn't going to be able to contain them. The Thunder shouldn't be letting up either since they won't be playing again for another eight days. New Orleans hasn't had much of a home-court edge either losing six of its last seven home games while the Thunder have covered five of their last six away contests.
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02-13-19 | Bucks -3.5 v. Pacers | Top | 106-97 | Win | 100 | 17 h 0 m | Show |
Indiana lost its first four games after its leading scorer and best player, Victor Oladipo, was lost for the season with a knee injury. Since then the Pacers have rebounded to win their next six games. The teams they beat are the Heat, Pelicans, Lakers, Clippers, Cavaliers and Hornets. Of that bunch only the Clippers are above .500. I don't see the Pacers stepping up in class now that they have to play the Bucks, who have the best record in the NBA and are 13-2 in their last 15 games. The Bucks are "A" level. The Pacers are "C" level. So this point spread is too short in my view. I don't see the Bucks going into All-Star break with a loss. They should have all hands on deck, including superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. He played on Monday when the Bucks whipped the Bulls, 112-99, in Chicago. There are a number of impressive trends pointing in the Bucks' direction such as being 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 road games, 16-5 ATS when playing on one day's rest and 18-6-2 ATS during their past 26 Eastern Conference games.
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02-13-19 | Nets -6.5 v. Cavs | 148-139 | Win | 100 | 17 h 59 m | Show | |
In each team's final game before the week long All-Star break, I trust Kenny Atkinson and the Nets to put forth a strong effort. I do not hold such faith for the Cavaliers especially after the Cavaliers halted a four-game losing skid with a 107-104 home victory against the Knicks. The Knicks, Cavaliers and Suns as the three worst teams in the NBA. Brooklyn is in stop-the-pain mode losing five of its past six games. The Nets are much deeper than the Cavaliers with better young talent. They have the best player on the court in emerging star D'Angelo Russell. The Nets nearly upset the Raptors on the road in their last game, losing 127-125 on Monday. The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last six road contests, while the Cavaliers are 2-7 ATS after covering in their previous game. The Nets also have added incentive - revenge. They lost 99-97 at home to the Cavaliers in December.
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02-13-19 | Rutgers +6 v. Northwestern | 59-56 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
I see a close, intense game here with every point mattering. Northwestern has lost four in a row. The Wildcats have been held to fewer than 53 points in three of their last four games. Rutgers has covered four of its last six games as its freshmen continue to improve. The Scarlet Knights own straight-up victories against Nebraska, Penn State and Indiana during this span. The Scarlet Knights should be pumped in revenge mode for a 65-57 home loss to Northwestern on Jan. 18. Rutgers was without its leading scorer, Eugene Omoruyi, in that game. He will play here.
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02-12-19 | Spurs -3.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 108-107 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
This is the Spurs' final game before All-Star break. They won't play again for 10 days. So you know Gregg Popovich will pull out all the stops to prevent San Antonio from losing a season-high fifth straight game. Lack of defense has really hurt the Spurs on their current road swing. But so has the quality of opposition. San Antonio has faced the Jazz, Trail Blazers and Warriors during its past three games, all on the road. Memphis is 5-18 in its last 23 games, 8-15 ATS. The Grizzlies also are the lowest-scoring team in the league. Despite their losing streak, the Spurs still have covered 69 percent of their last 14 games following a defeat. Memphis is 7-17 ATS the last 24 times it has faced an above .500 opponent. The Grizzlies have won three of their last four. Those wins, however, came against the Knicks, Timberwolves and Pelicans. Those are three bad teams with a combined record of 61-108. The Grizzlies are a worse team, too, after trading Marc Gasol.
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02-12-19 | Marquette v. DePaul +3.5 | 92-73 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
This is a dangerous spot for 10th-ranked Marquette traveling after a huge home nationally televised victory against Villanova this past Saturday. DePaul is much improved. The Blue Demons have five wins in Big East play this season, which is their second-highest win total during the past 11 seasons. They have won two in a row. The Blue Demons are 13-3 when outrebounding their opponents. They outrebounded Marquette in the first meeting, but lost 79-69 on Jan. 23. DePaul made 15 of 19 free throws in that game. Marquette, however, was 28-for-32 from the foul line for 87.5 percent. |
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02-11-19 | Wizards +4.5 v. Pistons | 112-121 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Power rating-wise, I just don't see this kind of point spread difference between these two teams. Washington has a winning record in its last 15 games. The teams just met on Jan. 21 and Washington won, 101-87, as 5 1/2-point home favorites. The Wizards got stronger at the trade deadline getting Bobby Portis and Jabari Parker while the Pistons became weaker dealing Reggie Bullock and Stanley Johnson. Detroit has won three in a row, but the last two victories have come versus the pathetic Knicks in a home-away series. Washington isn't a good road team. But the Wizards are capable of beating below average foes away from home even stunning the Thunder in Oklahoma City last month. |
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02-10-19 | Magic v. Hawks +2.5 | Top | 124-108 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
Orlando is on Cloud 9 after upsetting the Bucks, 103-83, at Milwaukee Saturday night. Even with that great victory, the Magic are just 9-17 on the road this season and 5-9 ATS in their past 14 away contests. The Hawks are in a great spot to get revenge for a 122-103 home loss to the Magic from Jan. 21. Not only do the Hawks draw the Magic in an obvious letdown spot, but also Orlando will be in action for the third time in four days and playing without rest arriving in Atlanta in the early Sunday morning hours. It's the first time the Magic have to play consecutive games since Jan. 18-19. Atlanta is below-the-radar with some excellent young players - John Collins, Trae Young, Taurean Prince and Kevin Huerter. So the Hawks are not at a talent disadvantage against the Magic. The Hawks are a respectable 12-14 in their last 16 games. |
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02-10-19 | East Carolina +14 v. South Florida | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
Getting a late 3-pointer from David Collins, South Florida upset SMU as 5 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Thursday. That victory puts the Bulls 10 games above .500 for the first time in 27 years. South Florida is fat and happy as it returns home to face lowly East Carolina. The Pirates are having a rough season. But they should be pumped for this matchup while the Bulls are in a letdown spot. East Carolina has revenge for a 77-57 loss from two weeks ago and were called out by its coach following a dismal 65-49 loss to Wichita State on Wednesday. It's an added plus for East Carolina if South Florida is missing Alexix Yetna for a second straight game. He leads the American Athletic Conference in rebounding and had a huge performance in the Bulls' earlier victory against the Pirates with 28 points and 13 rebounds. Yetna is dealing with a hamstring injury. The Bulls may not want to take a chance on him for this game with a bigger matchup on deck Wednesday versus Central Florida.
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02-09-19 | St. Mary's +17 v. Gonzaga | Top | 46-94 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
I recall St. Mary's upsetting Gonzaga, 74-71, as 7 1/2-point road 'dogs last season. But while I'm not saying the Gaels can pull a similar upset in Spokane this season, I do believe they can hang in and that this line is inflated based on Gonzaga winning 13 in a row with many of those victories occurring in blowout fashion. The Gaels haven't lost a game in regulation by more than six points since Nov. 21. The Bulldogs are the No. 1 scoring team in the nation. St. Mary's may be down from previous seasons, but the Gaels still are very good. They rank 21st in field goal percentage and surrender fewer than 67 points a game. Gaels' guard Jordan Ford leads the West Coast Conference in scoring at 22.1 points a game.
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02-09-19 | Hornets -2.5 v. Hawks | 129-120 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show | |
If the Hornets are serious about making the playoffs they need to win a game like this. Charlotte is a bad road team. But the Hornets can beat bottom tier teams away from home. They have proven this defeating the Suns and Grizzlies during the past 4 1/2 weeks. Charlotte is 4-1 ATS the last five times meeting a foe with a winning percentage below .400. The Hornets are a better team with underrated big man Cody Zeller back from a broken right hand. He's rounding into shape having played the last two games after missing the previous 16 games. Charlotte has covered in eight of its last 11 meetings against Atlanta. The Hawks have a lot of youth and inexperience. They are home until Feb. 25 so complacently could settle in. The Hawks have failed to cover 16 of the last 21 times they have been home versus an opponent with a losing road mark. Atlanta hosts Orlando in a revenge spot on Sunday. That's a matchup the Hawks figure to be targeting more than this game. The Magic embarrassed them in Atlanta winning by 19 points on Jan. 21.
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02-09-19 | Providence +7 v. St. John's | 70-56 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
Providence is in circle-the-wagons mode here desperately needing a victory to keep alive thoughts of trying to make the NCAA Tournament for a school-record sixth straight time. The Friars catch St. John's in a possible letdown scenario after the Red Storm upset Marquette, 70-69, on Wednesday dealing the Golden Eagles their first home loss of the season. The Friars have the defense to hang in against St. John's leading the Big East in forcing turnovers and ranking in the top-50 in adjusted defense. The Friars also like to play at Madison Square Garden. They reached the finals of the Big East Tournament playing at MSG last season before losing to Villanova in overtime. The Friars are 9-4 ATS the past 13 times on the road when playing an opponent with an above .600 home record. Providence has defeated St. John's in six of the last seven meetings, including the past three. The Red Storm are 0-4 ATS the last four times they have hosted Providence.
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02-08-19 | Bucks -7.5 v. Mavs | Top | 122-107 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
Maybe the oddsmaker doesn't quite realize how strong the Bucks are and how weak the Mavericks have become. Because this opening line is way short in my view. It's Milwaukee, not Golden State, that has the best record in the NBA at 40-13. The Bucks rank either first, second or third in points per game, rebounding, field goal percentage and 3-pointers. They are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games. The teams met recently - Jan. 21 - with the Bucks winning, 116-106, at home. Since then, the Mavericks have traded four of their top five players. Gone are DeAndre Jordan, Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes and Dennis Smith Jr. Dallas is left with Luka Doncic and a bunch of lottery-type players. The Bucks will have at least four of the five best players on the court in Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Malcolm Brodon and Eric Bledsoe. Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle is left trying to sift out the garbage. It's going to take him a while to figure out his rotation and the Bucks are not the opponent to experiment on. This is a kill spot for the Bucks given how well they are playing, five consecutive victories all by double-digits, and how bad and vulnerable the Mavericks are now the day after the trade deadline. |
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02-08-19 | Princeton +8 v. Yale | 60-74 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
I see excellent value here with Princeton. The Tigers have won seven in a row while covering in their last five games. They are 20-8-1 ATS following a victory. |
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02-07-19 | Spurs +6 v. Blazers | 118-127 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
I am a buyer at this number. Too much value on the Spurs, who are in stop-the-pain mode after opening their annual rodeo road trip with blowout losses to the Kings and Warriors last night. LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan, the Spurs' two best players, were rested against the Warriors. I expect them to produce strong efforts against Portland. The Spurs are 9-2-1 ATS following a loss and Gregg Popovich is really stressing defense for this game after not being pleased with the Spurs' effort against Golden State. Only once in their past five meetings with the Trail Blazers have the Spurs lost against the spread.
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02-07-19 | Hawaii +1 v. Long Beach State | Top | 77-70 | Win | 100 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
I'm usually attracted to the superior team in a pick or underdog spot. That's what we have here with Hawaii against Long Beach State. Hawaii is 4-3 in the Big West Conference. The Warriors are in must-win mode being 2 1/2 games out of first place. They are ranked 189th in the highly respected Ken Pom ratings. Long Beach State is 2-5 in the Big West with five consecutive losses. The 49ers are ranked 37 spots behind Hawaii by Ken Pom. The Warriors are surrendering 15 fewer points per game than the 49ers during the past five games. The two teams just met last Thursday and Hawaii was a 9 1/2-point home favorite. The Warriors shot 41.7 percent from the floor, missed 21 of 28 3-pointers and shot five fewer free throws yet still easily won, 74-57. So what has caused around a 10-point difference in the line? Well Hawaii is leaving the island following a 75-54 home loss to Santa Barbara as 3-point favorites, but that's not nearly worth that many points. The Warriors are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games following three or more straight home games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 matchups versus a sub .500 opponent. Long Beach State is just 3-7 ATS in its past 10 games against foes with winning records.
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02-05-19 | Valparaiso +8 v. Illinois State | 69-53 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Taking points often is the way to go in the defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference. Valparaiso gives up five fewer points per game than Illinois State and draws the Redbirds in a flat spot. Illinois State just beat Loyola of Chicago in front of a sell-out home crowd on Saturday in a first place conference showdown. Valparaiso is in stop-the-pain mode, strong defensively while the Redbirds are just average offensively. If the Crusaders can't pull the outright upset they should be able to hang around and get the cover.
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02-05-19 | Lakers -3 v. Pacers | Top | 94-136 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
LeBron. That's the short answer as to why Lakers in this game. LeBron James is set to play in his second game back from injury after missing the Lakers' 115-101 road loss to the Warriors on Saturday. The Lakers are a fractured team right now. James can pull them through. LA has much tougher games on deck in this road trip meeting the Celtics and 76ers in its next two games. The Pacers carry a much higher fatigue rating than the Lakers. They just finished a four-game, six-day road swing that concluded with a 109-107 win against the Pelicans last night. That victory followed a win against the Heat on Saturday. Indiana was 0-4 since losing its leading scorer and top player, Victor Oladipo, with a knee injury for the season before those victories. Oladipo didn't play either when the teams met in the first meeting this season. James did and scored 38 points in the Lakers' 104-96 win.
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02-04-19 | Louisville +4 v. Virginia Tech | 72-64 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
Chris Mack is a great coach and I expect Louisville to put forth a maximum effort following Saturday's 79-69 home loss to North Carolina. There is no shame in losing to North Carolina. There is shame, though, in how meekly the Cardinals went down to defeat. Louisville is 8-1-1 ATS following a point spread loss. The Cardinals also have covered in six of their past seven road contests. Until falling to the Tar Heels, the Cardinals had won six straight Atlantic Coast Conference games, winning those games by an average of 18 points. So maybe they were due for a flat performance. I don't expect a second bad game in a row. Virginia Tech is coming off a bizarre 47-24 road victory against North Carolina State on Saturday. The Hokies only hit 36 percent of their shots, but still won by 23 points. Virginia Tech got away with not having senior point guard Justin Robinson against the frigid-shooting Wolfpack. But the absence of Robinson, who is out with an ankle injury, could really hurt the Hokies versus the Cardinals. Robinson is Virginia Tech's second-leading scorer and leads the team in assists.
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02-03-19 | Xavier v. Creighton -6 | 54-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Creighton is undervalued given its tough Big East schedule. Xavier is not. The Musketeers are just bad this season especially on the road. Xavier is 1-5 SU and ATS in true road games this season. All of those road defeats have been by seven or more points. The Musketeers also are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road contests when going up against opponents who own a winning home record. The Bluejays average 82 points when playing at home. Xavier averages 68.1 points on the road. The Bluejays should be pumped, too, for this Sunday home game in a double revenge spot after Xavier won both meetings last season, including nipping Creighton by one point in Omaha.
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02-02-19 | Cal Poly v. CS-Northridge -8 | 65-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Cal Poly is coming off a surpring 71-45 road win against UC Riverside two days ago. The Mustangs were 7-point 'dogs in that game. Cal Poly, though, is far from being a good team. The Mustangs were 1-9 going into that game. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine lined games. They also are a very bad road team going 6-15-2 ATS during their last 23 away matchups. Northridge is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games. The Matadors defeated Cal Poly on the road earlier this season and have covered eight of the last 10 in the series.
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02-02-19 | Lakers v. Warriors -10.5 | Top | 101-115 | Win | 100 | 17 h 60 m | Show |
No team can hang with the Warriors when Golden State is home and fully motivated. I see the Warriors playing with a great deal of intensity following a humbling nationally televised home defeat to the 76ers this past Thursday. That halted the Warriors' 11-game win streak and occurred right after Golden State had returned home following a 5-0 road sweep. It was a flat spot for the Warriors and the 76ers took advantage. Golden State has dominated this series defeating the Lakers in eight of the last nine meetings. However, the one loss during this stretch came on Christmas Day when the Lakers humiliated the Warriors, 127-101. That defeat still bothers the Warriors, who should be at full strength to face the Lakers. LA has LeBron James back, but could have a serious problem at point guard with Lonzo Ball out and Rajon Rondo questionable with an ankle injury. James had missed the previous 17 games with a groin injury until returning in the Lakers' last game, a 123-120 overtime win versus the Clippers on Thursday. James had to log 40 minutes in that victory and said his groin felt sore after the game. So if the Lakers fall way behind they may limit James' minutes not wanting to risk him getting reinjured. The Lakers showed they aren't much without James going 6-11 in his absence. The Lakers have failed to cover in nine of their last 12 visits to Oracle Arena.
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02-02-19 | Clippers +1.5 v. Pistons | 111-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
I'm usually attracted to the better team getting points especially when the situation sets up. That's the case here. The Clippers begin their six-game road trip with this matchup having lost at home in their past two games. The Clippers have won and covered three of their last four road games and have revenge motivation for a 109-104 loss they suffered to Detroit as seven-point home favorites on Jan. 12. The Clippers can't afford to lose this game with their next game looming at Toronto on Sunday. Detroit is 9-21 in its last 30 games. The Pistons were life-and-death at home against a depleted Mavericks squad in their last game on Thursday. It took two free throws by Andre Drummond, a notoriously bad free throw shooter, with 3.3 seconds left to give the Pistons a 93-89 victory. Dallas was without its four best players in that game as Luka Doncic sat out with a sore ankle and DeAndre Jordan, Wesley Matthews and Dennis Smith Jr. all were traded earlier that day.
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02-02-19 | San Francisco v. St. Mary's -5 | 80-86 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
St. Mary's has covered the past five times hosting San Francisco. The Gaels have covered their past five home games and will be highly motivated to get revenge for a road loss to the Dons earlier this season. San Francisco has a revenge game on tap - playing Gonzaga on Thursday. The Gaels have won each of their last seven home games by 15 or more points. The Gaels are back to playing top-notch defense holding three of their past five opponents to 60 points or fewer.
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02-01-19 | Grizzlies v. Hornets -4.5 | Top | 92-100 | Win | 100 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
The Hornets are the epitome of a good home team, bad road club. Charlotte is 17-8 at home, but just the opposite - 7-18 - in its away matchups. One of the Hornets' few road victories came just nine days ago when they defeated the Grizzlies, 118-107. It was the seventh time in the past eight meetings that Charlotte has covered against Memphis. I'm expecting that trend to continue today. Memphis has hoisted the white flag with losses in 16 of its last 18 games, including a 1-10 record in its last 11 games. The Grizzlies, to their credit, have been competitive in their last four games losing by three to the Kings at home, upsetting the Pacers at home, losing by just three to the Nuggets on the road and falling to the Timberwolves by two in overtime this past Wednesday at home. The last two defeats were especially brutal for the Grizzlies as they blew a 25-point lead against the Nuggets and were knocked off by the Timberwolves when Karl-Anthony Towns hit a 20-footer at the buzzer off an offensive rebound to give Minnesota the victory. I don't see the Grizzlies, with their low morale and trade rumors swirling about their two best players - Marc Gasol and Mike Conley - getting up a third straight time even though they do have a revenge factor. The game is much more important for the Hornets, who currently hold the final playoff spots in the East. Charlotte is off a bad 126-94 road loss to the Celtics on Wednesday. This is the first game of a three-game homestand. Charlotte plays with a lot more confidence at home. The Hornets destroyed the Grizzlies, 140-79, at home last season when Memphis had a better team. I see this opening number clearly being short.
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01-31-19 | Wofford v. Mercer +7.5 | 76-67 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
Wofford is in a flat spot coming off a three-game home sweep where it won two of those games in the final seconds. Despite those victories, the Terriers still have failed to cover in their last four Southern Conference games. Mercer is a bad road team, but good at home going 7-2. The Bears are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home contests. The Bears hung tough at Wofford in the first meeting losing, 78-74, as 12-point road 'dogs on Jan. 5.
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01-30-19 | Fresno State -12 v. Wyoming | 75-62 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
I want Fresno State going for me after the Bulldogs were upset, 74-65, as 6-point road favorites at Colorado State in their last game. The Bulldogs have not lost two games in a row all season. Wyoming is 1-6 in the Mountain West having lost six of its last seven games. Wyoming has been hard hit by injuries and lacks the scoring to keep up with Fresno State. The Cowboys average just 65.6 points a game, which ranks 323rd in the nation. Fresno State is 7-1 ATS the past eight times facing a foe with a losing home record. The Cowboys have failed to cover eight of the last 10 times versus opponents with a winning record. They lack the manpower and experience to cope with what should be a fired-up and mad Bulldogs squad.
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01-30-19 | Nuggets -8 v. Pelicans | 105-99 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 48 m | Show | |
It is a terrible scheduling break for the Pelicans that they have to play today after stunning the Rockets on the road Tuesday despite missing a number of key players, including Anthony Davis. New Orleans is 1-4 ATS when playing on zero rest. I can't see the Pelicans putting forth another great effort on such short notice and being down so many important contributors. Denver will be the more rested team already being in New Orleans following its 95-92 road win against Memphis on Monday. The Nuggets are 34-15, the second-best record in the Western Conference. The Pelicans are 23-28. Denver has won 13 of its last 17 games. The Nuggets have won by 16 or more points in four of their last six games blowing out the 76ers, Bulls, Cavaliers and Suns during this span. They are certainly capable of crushing the sub .500 Pelicans, too. It's not just superstar Davis who the Pelicans are missing. They also are going to be without Julius Randle, their third-leading scorer, and Nikola Mirotic. Elfrid Payton may not play either. If that's the case, which it was last night, the Pelcians will be down their best player, third-best player, fourth-best player and sixth-best player. The Nuggets won't be taking the Pelicans for granted like the Rockets did either. Denver will be focused being on the road and fully aware of what the Pelicans accomplished last night at Houston.
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01-29-19 | Bucks -6 v. Pistons | Top | 115-105 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
The Bucks opened their current five-game road trip with a 118-112 loss to the Thunder on Sunday. Milwaukee has yet to lose two consecutive games all season. The Bucks are 12-2 ATS the past 14 times following a defeat. The Bucks have won their next game after a loss by an average of 14.8 points. The Pistons are 2-3 in their last five games, averaging just 97 points during this span. The Bucks rank No. 2 in the NBA in scoring at 117.3. Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond are having tremendous years for Detroit. But the Pistons are getting little from the rest of the players. They have a weak bench made weaker if backup veteran point guard Ish Smith has to miss a fifth straight game due to a groin injury. Detroit is just 1-6-1 ATS the past eight times it has stepped up to face an opponent with a win percentage above .600. The Bucks have owned the Pistons this season winning all three meetings with the average victory margin being 16 points. Big man Brook Lopez has come on making the Bucks extremely dangerous. Lopez's hot shooting from outside has helped free things up for superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. Unlike the Pistons, the Bucks have a deep bench. Lopez scored 25 points - hitting seven 3-pointers - when the teams last met on New Year's Day with the Bucks winning, 121-98, at home.
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01-29-19 | Tennessee v. South Carolina +9 | Top | 92-70 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
Tennessee is finding out that being the top-ranked college basketball team in the country carries a huge target. The Volunteers have had some narrow escapes in two of their last three games beating Alabama by just three points as 13-point home favorites and getting past Vanderbilt in overtime as a nine-point road favorite. I don't see the Volunteers being quite so fortunate on the road against a rugged, well-coached South Carolina squad that has been peaking since SEC play began going 5-1. Going back to last season, the Gamecocks are 11-2-1 ATS during their past 14 SEC contests. This is Tennessee's fourth SEC road game. The Volunteers have trailed in all three of their league road matchups. South Carolina is good at forcing turnovers and rebounding. The Gamecocks will be fired-up, too, under fiery Frank Martin. Tennessee is coming off its third-worst turnover game of the season committing 16 in their last game against West Virginia. South Carolina has covered in four of its last five games versus Tennessee.
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01-28-19 | Baylor +6 v. Oklahoma | 77-47 | Win | 100 | 21 h 53 m | Show | |
Baylor is 4-1 since losing center and second-leading scorer Tristan Clark for the season with a knee injury. The Bears have come together following Clark's injury riding a season-high four game win streak. The Bears have knocked off ranked Texas Tech and won at Oklahoma State during this span. There are some key intangibles that point to the Bears keeping this one close - if not pulling the outright upset. Oklahoma just rolled past Vanderbilt, 86-66, this past Saturday in an SEC/Big 12 Challenge game. Vandy is coached by Bryce Drew, the younger brother of Baylor coach Scott Drew. So you know the older Drew has picked his brother's brain about how best to attack the Sooners. Not committing turnovers is one element. Vanderbilt committed 22 turnovers in its road loss to the Sooners. Baylor turned the ball over just eight times, tying a season-low, in beating Alabama, 73-68, this past Saturday. The Bears have gone more to playing four guards at one time since losing Clark. That could account for fewer turnovers. The Bears are playing tough defense holding their last four foes to 68 points a game. Baylor also leads the Big 12 in rebounding margin at plus 6.5. Baylor is used to playing on Monday after having just been in action on Saturday. They have done it the past two weeks, posting Monday road victories against Oklahoma State and West Virginia. The familiarity in this routine is a plus. The Bears won both of these games straight-up as an underdog. Baylor is 4-0 ATS during its past four away contests. The Bears also have covered in four of their last five road games versus the Sooners. The last time the Sooners played on less than two days rest was back in November. Oklahoma hasn't been playing that well either going 3-3 in its last six games. |
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01-26-19 | UNLV v. San Diego State -5.5 | 77-94 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
San Diego State is in a foul mood after blowing a 20-point road lead against Fresno State in its last game. The Aztecs are 15-6 ATS for 71 percent in their last 21 home games, including beating UNLV by 38 points last season at home. UNLV has covered just 25 percent of its last 41 away matchups. The Rebels have played an easy Mountain West schedule. So their record is misleading. Look for the Aztecs to expose the Rebels here.
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01-26-19 | Samford v. Furman -9 | 75-73 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 50 m | Show | |
Furman is 10-0 at home with a winning home ATS mark. The Paladins have dominated this series winning the past six times. They beat Samford both times last season winning each game by double digits, including defeating the Bulldogs by 15 points on the road. The spot is bad for Samford. The Bulldogs are coming off a 107-106 overtime loss to Wofford as 12-point road 'dogs this past Thursday.
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01-25-19 | Knicks +10 v. Nets | Top | 99-109 | Push | 0 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
The Nets have been a great below-the-radar story winning 18 of their last 23 games to become a solid playoff contender. The Nets have accomplished this with a deep rotation not having any superstars. But now the Nets are laying their biggest number of the season. They are doing this against a long-time division and neighbor rival and they are doing it when they could be without several players to their rotation, one of whom is vitally important. Star reserve Spencer Dinwiddie - who is averaging 17.2 points - is not likely to play because of a thumb injury, Jared Dudley is out with a hamstring injury and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is questionable with a shoulder injury. Dinwiddie scored 25 points when the teams last met on Dec. 8. The Nets beat the Knicks, 112-104, at Madison Square Garden. Despite their turnaround season, the Nets are averaging an NBA-worst 14,258 fans per game. Many of those fans for tonight's game will be Knicks fans. There is a pride element in the NBA. The Knicks upset the Bucks last month. The Knicks will be up for this game. They have covered six of the last seven in the series. The Nets are not a team to lay big points with as 14 of their last 18 victories have been by single digits. Brooklyn has won three of its last four games by an average of three points with one coming in overtime.
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01-24-19 | Warriors v. Wizards +10.5 | Top | 126-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Just like last season, the Wizards are playing much better without John Wall. How well? They are 8-3 ATS since losing Wall for the season. The Wizards are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven home games. Included among their victories during this current home span are wins against the Bucks by seven and against the 76ers by 17. Milwaukee has a better record than Golden State. The Wizards' only home defeat during this span came in overtime to the Raptors. This is a rare nationally televised (TNT) game for Washington. The Warriors have a more challenging game on deck playing at the Celtics on Saturday. So the Wizards certainly should be the more motivated team.
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01-23-19 | Nuggets v. Jazz -3 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 21 h 59 m | Show |
Going up against the Jazz in Salt Lake City usually isn't a pleasant experience. It has been especially tough for the Nuggets. Denver has lost seven road games in a row to Utah with the average loss being 14 points. Denver enters this matchup a bit fat and happy following two blowout home victories. Those wins, though, occurred against the Bulls and Cavaliers. Utah, by contrast, is in an angry mood. The Jazz lost 109-104 at home to Portland in their last game this past Monday. The Jazz had won six consecutive games prior to that. Utah is 9-1-1 ATS following a loss. Denver is 2-7 ATS in its past nine road games. Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert are having exceptional months for the Jazz. Mitchell is averaging 29.8 points in his last nine games. Gobert has pulled down at least 13 rebounds in his last eight games. Gobert could be the best rim protector in the Western Conference and can bother Nikola Jokic. The Jazz's banged-up backcourt is in better shape now with Ricky Rubio back from a hamstring injury that had sidelined him for six games. Rubio got some of the rust off in the Jazz's loss to the Trail Blazers, which was his first game back. |
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01-23-19 | St Bonaventure v. Massachusetts -3 | 65-51 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
UMass is stepping down in class and can take advantage of St. Bonaventure's youth. The Bonnies are dealing with injuries and have been horrible on the road going 0-8-1 ATS during their last nine road games. UMass has the better offense and is showing improvement on the defensive end. The Minutemen are averaging nearly six more points per game than St. Bonaventure. |
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01-22-19 | Duke v. Pittsburgh +13 | Top | 79-64 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
Duke has a Dream Team of freshmen with RJ Barrett, Zion Williamson and Cam Reddish. But Pittsburgh also has some very good first-year players with Xavier Johnson, Trey McGowens and Au'Diese Toney. Duke is coming off a huge marquee home victory against Virginia this past Saturday. Pittsburgh is treating this as its biggest game of the season. The matchup has been sold out for weeks. Jeff Capel is a big reason why the Panthers are sky-high for this matchup. Capel played four seasons for Mike Krzyzewski and then coached under him for seven years while probably being Duke's top recruiter. Capel was named Pittsburgh's head coach last March. This is the first meeting between Capel and Krzyzewski. Capel knows the Blue Devils better than any opponent. He knows Duke's tendencies and has intimate knowledge of the plays the Blue Devils run. Duke is likely to be missing point guard Tre Jones, who was leading the Blue Devils in assists and was their fourth-leading scorer. He suffered a shoulder injury last week and is not expected to play. The Panthers have covered 76 percent of their lined games under Capel. Pitt is 9-3 ATS in its home games. The Panthers have a strong history of covering spreads versus elite competition going 9-2-1 ATS the past 12 times facing opponents with an above .600 winning percentage. I expect this game to be close throughout. But if Duke does build a double-digit lead the backdoor should be open for Pittsburgh because Capel and Krzyzewski are close friends. Krzyzewski would not want to embarrass Capel especially on Capel's home-court.
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01-22-19 | Blazers +6 v. Thunder | 114-123 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Portland is playing its best ball going 9-3 in its last 12 games. The Trail Blazers have covered six of their last seven games and have had equally good point spread success versus the Thunder covering six of the last seven meetings. This is a key Northwest Division matchup with both teams trailing the Nuggets by 3 1/2 games. Portland also has revenge for a 111-109 home loss to Oklahoma City from 18 days ago. Some of Oklahoma City's home-court advantage is lost because of the spot. The Thunder had to fly in from the East Coast after defeating the Knicks on Sunday. The Trail Blazers posted a road victory against the Jazz on Monday. Portland was idle the previous two days, though. The Trail Blazers had last played on Friday before Monday's game against the Jazz. The Thunder are playing for the fifth time in eight days and third time in four days - all on different courts. Oklahoma City has its share of stars. But the Trail Blazers' backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum rates as high as any guard tandem and big man Jusuf Nurkic is having a breakthrough season.
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01-20-19 | Suns v. Wolves -10 | 114-116 | Loss | -113 | 18 h 34 m | Show | |
Minnesota had been playing well. That was before the Timberwolves' last two games - a road loss to the 76ers and home loss to the Spurs this past Friday. But now the Timberwolves drop way down in class hosting the Suns, who are 4-19 SU, 10-13 ATS on the road. This is the Suns' finale of a four-game road trip. It marks their fourth game in six days and second in two days. The Suns don't have much quality depth and they may have lost two players during their 135-115 road loss to Charlotte on Saturday night. Star rookie center Dandre Ayton suffered an ankle injury and reserve forward Richard Holmes hurt his foot. Minnesota is averaging 112.8 points in its last five games. Phoenix is allowing 125.6 points in its last three games. Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 24.8 points this month. He could be in line for a monster performance if Ayton can't play. The Timberwolves should not lack motivation. They have a revenge factor having lost 107-99 to the Suns in Phoenix on Dec. 15. The teams also meet again on Tuesday in Phoenix. So the Timberwolves understand the urgency of holding court at home.
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01-20-19 | Rams +3.5 v. Saints | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 91 h 10 m | Show | |
The Saints hosted the Rams back in Week 9. The Rams were 1 1/2-point road favorites. Now look at the spread. There's a difference of four points, which I don't see between these two teams. These are the two best teams in the NFC deserving of meeting in the title game. But in my view the Rams are slightly better and that isn't negated by the Saints being home. It was huge for the Rams that they played earlier this season in the Superdome. They now have more of an idea of what to expect. Yes, the Saints beat the Rams, 45-35. But the score was tied 35-35 and the Rams had a chance to deliver a knockout blow to the Saints. They didn't do it - this time. The Saints are at their best inside their dome. But a fast-track, carpet field without weather conditions is helpful for the Rams, too. They are explosive with reliance on speed. Jared Goff is far better when not affected by bad weather. Take away their road loss to the Bears in cold weather and the Rams would be averaging 36.6 points a game. This is the first time LA is getting points all season. The Saints are going to have to score a ton of points to win and even more to cover the spread. Lost in the glare of the Saints' playoff victory against the Eagles was New Orleans losing defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins. He suffered a torn Achilles. That's a huge defensive loss for New Orleans. Rankins finally was living up to his vast potential with eight sacks while playing the run well. Sean McValy is a coaching genius. I rank him as the best coach in the NFC. He had the vision to make the Rams more of a physical team instead of just a finesse passing team. He did this on a fly, too, implementing that late in the season. The move paid off against a Cowboys defense that is better than the Saints defense. The Rams ran for 273 yards against a Cowboys defense that ranked fifth versus the run. On the flip side, the Rams held NFL rushing leader Ezekiel Elliott to 47 yards rushing on 20 carries. LA has a trump card on defense: Aaron Donald. He's the most dominant defensive lineman in football. He's be operating against Audrus Peat, who is playing with a broken hand. Donald can disrupt the Saints offense just by himself.
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01-19-19 | Northern Colorado v. Weber State -4 | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
These are the two best teams in the Big Sky Conference. Weber State is 6-0 versus Northern Colorado during the past three seasons in regular season action. The Wildcats, though, have revenge. Northern Colorado ended their season in the Big Sky Conference Tournament last season. That game was played at a neutral site. Weber State has won 86 percent of its conference home games under Coach Randy Rahe. The Wildcats have a size advantage and the superior defense. Weber State doesn't lack for scoring averaging 82.6 points and is a strong defensive rebounding team so it can limit Northern Colorado's second chance opportunities.
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01-19-19 | Heat -2.5 v. Bulls | Top | 117-103 | Win | 100 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
Miami is 0-2 on its current four-game road trip. The Heat meet the Bulls here before concluding their road swing against the revenge-minded Celtics on Monday. This is the spot for the Heat to make sure they don't go 0-4 on this trip. Chicago is 0-9 in its last nine games. The Bulls just completed an embarrassing 0-5 road trip with a 30-point loss to the Nuggets this past Thursday. The Bulls come back home for the first time in nearly two weeks at low ebb and suffering a key below-the-radar injury. Chicago rookie forward Wendell Carter Jr. suffered a thumb injury this week that is going to sideline him two-to-three months. The 6-foot-10 Carter was coming on averaging 10.3 rebounds and 7 rebounds per game. More important, he gave the Bulls their only physical presence in the paint. His toughness is going to be missed especially against a rugged, defensive-minded team such as Miami. The Heat surrender the fourth-fewest points in the league. The Bulls are last in scoring. Miami lost 98-93 to the Pistons Friday night. The Heat made 5-of-19 free throws (26.3 percent) in that game setting a franchise-record for worst free throw shooting in a game with a minimum of 15 attempts. Miami isn't a good free throw shooting team mainly because of Hassan Whiteside, the worst free throw shooter in the league. But missing 19 of 24 free throws is absurd. The Heat also didn't have Josh Richardson, their leading scorer, in their loss to the Pistons. Richardson missed the game due to illness. It's obviously a plus if he plays. But even if he doesn't I like the Heat. Their Friday starting group of Whiteside, James Johnson Rodney McGruder, Justise Winslow and Tyler Johnson had only played two minutes together all season. Now they would get to start a second straight game within 24 hours. The Bulls lost to the Heat as four-point home underdogs, 103-96, when the teams met on Nov. 23. The Heat didn't have starting point guard Goran Dragic for that game either. Chicago has lost its last four games at United Center. Three of those losses were by 17 points to the Nets, 28 to the Magic and 25 to the Timberwolves.
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01-19-19 | Florida International v. Marshall -8.5 | 97-105 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
This is going to be a track meet. I see Florida International being slow here after coming from 16 points down with 12 minutes to pull off a stunning, 77-76, upset road win against Western Kentucky this past Thursday. The Golden Panthers were 10-point underdogs in that game. Marshall is unbeaten in Conference USA at 4-0. They are 4-0 the past four times facing the Golden Panthers, covering five of the last six meetings.
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01-18-19 | Pelicans v. Blazers -2.5 | Top | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
Both matchup-wise and situationally the Trail Blazers hold key edges. Portland plays better defense than the Pelicans, who rank 27th in scoring defense, and also is the stronger rebounding team ranking No. 3 in the category. The Trail Blazers are playing well, too, winning seven of their last 10. Anthony Davis is an absolute monster up front, but Portland big man Josuf Nurkic is playing the best ball of his career coming off a triple/double and the Trail Blazers hold a backcourt edge with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. As for the spot, Portland has a strong home-court. The Trail Blazers have won 19 of their 26 home games this season covering 62 percent. New Orleans is a bad road club losing 18 of its 24 away matchups while going 9-14 (39%) ATS in those games. This also is the Pelicans' fourth road game in seven days. Being bad on the road and weak defensively is a tough combination for the Pelicans to overcome. The Trail Blazers have defeated the Pelicans in 13 of the last 15 regular-season games, including 132-119 at home on Nov. 1 in the lone meeting between the teams this season. Davis, though, did not play in that game. Don't look for the Trail Blazers to take the Pelicans lightly, however. Portland still has bitter memories of the Pelicans sweeping the Trail Blazers in the first round of the playoffs last season.
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01-18-19 | St. Joe's v. St. Louis -8.5 | 57-68 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
St. Louis is the superior team and on a nice run winning five in a row. St. Joe's upset Davidson in its last game. However, prior to that, the Hawks had dropped four in a row. The Hawks are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games and are down their second-leading scorer, Lamarr Kimble, who recently suffered a hand injury. |
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01-17-19 | BYU v. Pepperdine +3.5 | 87-76 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
Lorenzo Romar is doing an outstanding job with Pepperdine. The Waves have covered 10 of their 16 lined games, including going 5-1 ATS at home. Word is BYU could be missing its third leading scorer with guard Jashire Hardnett dealing with a hand injury. The Cougars have been brutal on the road covering just one of their last 11 away matchups. They have lost SU to Illinois State, Weber State and UNLV as road favorites already this season. Even in bad years, Pepperdine has been tough against BYU at home covering the past seven times.
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01-17-19 | Kings v. Hornets -3 | 95-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
Charlotte is one of those decent home, bad road teams. The Hornets are 14-8 at home, 6-15 on the road. One of those away defeats came just five days ago at Sacramento. The Kings won, 104-97. So the Hornets have short revenge motivation. Charlotte lost by seven points at the Kings. The Hornets were 13-for-22 (59.1 percent) at the free throw line in that game. They rank ninth on the season in free throw percentage at 78.9 percent. The Kings are 9-11 SU on the road, 10-10 ATS. Sacramento has been far worse than average, though, recently on the road losing and failing to cover during their past four away matchups. The Kings haven't been on the road for nine days. They lost their last road contest, 115-111, to the Suns, who by far have the worst record in the Western Conference. Sacramento is fat and happy with three straight victories - all coming at home. Now the Kings go on the road where they have not looked good.
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01-16-19 | Minnesota v. Illinois +2 | 68-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
Both teams aren't very good. But Illinois has played a tough schedule and has talented freshmen who are coming on. The Illini desperately need to win this home game. They draw Minnesota fat and happy after an easy win against Rutgers. The Gophers have a history of not covering against sub .500 teams going 6-20 ATS in that role the past 26 times. Illinois is good at forcing turnovers, are playing at home, in circle-the-wagons mode and won't be outclassed here.
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01-16-19 | Spurs +1 v. Mavs | Top | 105-101 | Win | 100 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
Gregg Popovich. That's the short answer as to why I like the Spurs here. San Antonio is in circle-the-wagons mentality having lost three of their last four games, including an embarrassing 108-93 loss to the Hornets at home on Monday. I trust Popovich to have his team fired-up. Dallas is tough at home. But the Mavericks are not as good as San Antonio and they have lost 14 of their last 19 games. The Spurs have been excellent in this situation covering 11 of the last 15 times when playing on one day's rest. There is a good chance the Spurs get back Rudy Gay. He has missed the last five games with a sprained wrist. It's an added bonus, too, if the Spurs get back key reserve Marco Belinelli, who suffered a knee injury this past Saturday and is day-to-day.
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01-16-19 | Magic +3.5 v. Pistons | 115-120 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
Orlando is playing its best ball coming off consecutive home victories against the Celtics and Rockets this past weekend. The Magic are rested having been idle the past two days. They catch the Pistons returning home following a four-game West Coast trip that concluded Monday night in Utah. Detroit is 2-8 in its last 10 games and has a losing ATS mark when favored. The Magic have covered seven of the past eight times versus the Pistons, including defeating them, 109-107, as 1.5-point home favorites on Dec. 30. One of the major keys in beating Detroit is slowing down Blake Griffin. The Pistons beat the Clippers for their lone victory during their recently concluded four-game trip because Griffin lit up his former teammates for 44 points. Orlando has the defensive stopper to bother Griffin with Aaron Gordon. He helped hold Griffin to just four field goals and 15 points during the previous meeting.
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01-15-19 | LSU +4 v. Ole Miss | 83-69 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
LSU showed it could win on the road beating Arkansas this past Saturday. The Tigers are a good value play against overacheiving Mississippi, which is in a letdown spot after breaking into the Top 25 for the first time in six years. The Rebels achieved this by beating two Top-15 opponents last week. Heady stuff, but the Rebels are not used to being the hunted now. The Rebels have been underdogs in their last three games, all SEC matchups. LSU has won five in a row. The Tigers are the more talented team with the size and perimeter shooting to knock off the Rebels straight-up.
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01-14-19 | Blazers +2.5 v. Kings | 107-115 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
Yes, the Trail Blazers had to play last night falling, 116-113, at Denver when their huge comeback came up just short against the Western Conference-leading Nuggets. Portland had won four in a row entering that matchup. The Kings are not the Nuggets. They are a 22-21 team that has failed to cover six of the last seven times when going against an above .500 opponent. Sacramento has a much improved backcourt with De'Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic. But it's trumped by Portland's star guard tandem of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. The Trail Blazers also have the best big man on the floor, Jusuf Nurkic. Portland should dominate the boards ranking third in the NBA in rebounding while the Kings are a bottom-10 rebounding team. The Trail Blazers also have defeated the Kings during the past four meetings going 3-0-1 ATS.
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01-14-19 | Grizzlies v. Rockets -6 | Top | 94-112 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
The Rockets average 10 more points per game than the struggling Grizzlies and are in a kill spot returning home after blowing a 12-point lead against the Magic while suffering a 116-109 road upset loss to the Magic Sunday. Houston is 11-1 SU, 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 home games, including defeating the Grizzlies, 113-101, on Dec. 31. The Rockets got too lax against the Magic and it cost them. Expect a much stronger effort and focus from the Rockets. Motivation, not talent, is the key for the Rockets against this opponent. And, now, Houston should have that. Based on talent, the Rockets should bury Memphis, which is 7-18 in its last 25 games and 1-7 in its last eight. The Grizzlies have lost by seven points or more in six of their past seven defeats. The Grizzlies are playing short-handed, too, down three of their rotation players with Kyle Anderson, Dillon Brooks and Chandler Parsons all injured. The Rockets are playing without rest, but the Grizzlies are 2-8 ATS when playing on one day rest.
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01-13-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -4 | 113-116 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 16 m | Show | |
Denver got caught peeking ahead to this home matchup. The Nuggets were upset, 102-93, on the road by the lowly Suns Saturday night. Even with that defeat, though, the Nuggets still are 7-2 in their last nine games. They own the best record in the Western Conference. The Nuggets are 9-2 ATS in their past 11 games at Pepsi Center. Portland is 4-11 ATS the past 15 times it has played on the road versus an opponent with a winning home mark. The Trail Blazers also enter this matchup fat and happy. They are on a four-game win streak - all home wins. Their last three victories have been against bad teams - Knicks, Bulls and Hornets. This is Portland's first road contest in 12 days. The Trail Blazers are 0-3-1 ATS the last four times playing the Nuggets.
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01-13-19 | Eagles v. Saints -8 | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 29 m | Show |
No the Saints aren't blowing out the Eagles by 41 points like they did at home in Week 11. Philadelphia's secondary is in better physical shape and Nick Foles has replaced ailing Carson Wentz at quarterback. But this isn't enough to keep the Eagles within a touchdown of the Saints. New Orleans is a level higher this season than the Eagles and playing inside their dome stadium where Drew Brees threw 22 touchdown passes with just one interception. The Eagles struggled against Mitch Trubisky on grass last week surviving only because of Cody Parkey's bad luck on his final field goal attempt. Brees on a fast track with Alvin Karma, Michael Thomas and Mark Ingram is too much offense for the Eagles. Karma and Ingram both are far superior to any of the Eagles running backs. Thomas is the best wide receiver on the field. The Eagles carry a fatigue rating playing in their third straight road matchup while the Saints are rested. Offensive mastermind Sean Payton is dangerous with extra prep time. The Eagles have failed to cover nine the last 13 times they have played on carpet. Foles may be the top backup quarterback in the league. But if he were a starter he would rank among the bottom half. Foles has started the past four games. He has an eight-to-five TD-to-interception ratio during this time. The Saints are much improved defensively. During Weeks 10 through 15 - when they were competing hard for playoff seeding - the Saints gave up 12.3 points per game. No team scored more than 17 points on them during this time. You need a balanced offense and ball-control to beat the Saints inside the Louisiana Superdome. The Eagles rank 28th rushing. New Orleans has the No. 2 run defense. Credit to the Eagles for getting this far. But their journey to repeat as Super Bowl champions ends here.
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01-12-19 | Hornets +5.5 v. Kings | 97-104 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 2 m | Show | |
If there was anything positive for the Hornets in their embarrassing 127-96 road loss to the Trail Blazers Friday night it was none of their players had to log big minutes. That should help Charlotte in this matchup. The Hornets have been blown out now in two straight games, having lost 128-109 to the Clippers in LA on Tuesday. However, only once all season have the Hornets dropped three games in a row and that was more than a month ago. The Trail Blazers and Clippers are superior to the Hornets especially when playing them at home. The Kings aren't. Sacramento has lost one fewer game than Charlotte. The Hornets are dropping down in class after facing the Trail Blazers and Clippers. The Kings aren't playing well either losing five of their last seven games. Just two games ago on this past Tuesday, the Suns defeated the Kings, 115-111. The Hornets met the Suns in Phoenix three games ago this past Sunday and beat the Suns, 119-113. Charlotte has the best player in Kemba Walker. The Hornets also have covered in four of their last five visits to Sacramento.
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01-12-19 | St. Mary's -5 v. Loyola Marymount | 71-60 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm not buying Loyola Marymount as a live 'dog here. St. Mary's is a traditional power having won 20 or more games in 11 consecutive seasons. The Gaels can't afford a loss here knowing Gonzaga is highly likely to win the West Coast Conference. Loyola Marymount's 12-3 record is bogus because of an easy schedule. The Gaels have dominated Loyola Marymount winning the past 10 times, including covering in the last five meetings. St. Mary's should have no problem taking advantage of the Lions' weak 3-point shooting.
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01-12-19 | Cowboys v. Rams -7 | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 46 h 39 m | Show | |
There are three major reasons why I like the Rams to beat the Cowboys by more than a touchdown: Situation, home/road data and coaching. Let's start with the situation. LA is rested. The Rams should be well prepared given two weeks to prepare with Sean McVay, who just might be the sharpest offensive-minded coach in football. The Rams won 11 games under McVay last season emerging as a force. However, the Rams suffered from playoff inexperience and lost in the first round to the Falcons. This year the Rams won 13 games and improved even more. Jared Goff and Co. now have playoff experience. A rested Todd Gurley trumps Ezekiel Elliott especially with a far better downfield passing attack on his side. The Cowboys entered this season having won one playoff game in Jason Garrett's previous seven years as head coach. McVay versus Garrett is a huge coaching mismatch in LA's favor. Home/road splits are huge for both teams. The Rams went 7-1 at home, averaging nine more points per game at home while giving up 8.2 points less per contest. Goff is a California quarterback. His quarterack rating was nearly 35 points higher when he played in LA. Dallas, by contrast, averaged 7.5 points fewer per game when on the road with Dak Prescott's quarterback rating being nearly 24 points lower away from Dallas. The Cowboys averaged a league-low 5.8 points in the first half when on the road. The Cowboys are heavily run-oriented. Prescott has severe limitations when throwing more than just short passes. The Cowboys also have a cluster injury problem at wide receiver. They are not built to come from behind if the Rams should jump out to a big lead against them.
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01-12-19 | Colts +5 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -105 | 121 h 48 m | Show |
Andy Reid is a likely Hall of Fame coach. But when it comes to the playoffs he is a Hall of Fame chump. Reid's team have lost eight of their last nine playoff games. This includes a 1-4 postseason mark with the Chiefs. The Titans upset the Chiefs as 8 1/2-point road 'dogs last season in the Chiefs' first playoff game. These Colts are far better than that Tennessee team. The Chiefs went just 3-3 down the stretch going 1-4-1 ATS with their lone cover coming against the Raiders. Indianapolis is 10-1 in its last 11 games. The Colts' defense has been far better than perceived. So has their offensive line, which gave up the fewest sacks in the league. Marlon Mack has emerged as a running back threat. He's better than any of Kansas City's running backs with Kareem Hunt gone. Patrick Mahomes had a great season. But so did Andrew Luck, who threw the second-most TD passes on the season in back of only Mahomes. Luck has playoff experience, something Mahomes lacks. Kansas City's defense has played better at home. But the Colts hold a defensive edge. They've held five of their last six foes to 21 points or fewer. The Chiefs defense surrendered the second-most points per game and second most-yards per game. The Colts have become a physical unit that can play ball control. That's the way to beat the Chiefs.
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01-12-19 | Drexel v. NC-Wilmington -3.5 | 83-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
NC Wilmington is in circle-the-wagons mode having already lost two straight Colonial Athletic Association games at home. The Seahawks draw Drexel, a team they have beat six consecutive times, with the Dragons in a letdown spot. The Dragons just shocked Charleston, 79-78, as a 12 1/2-point road 'dog on Thursday. Drexel rallied from a 13-point deficit. Charleston had the second-longest home win streak at 22 in back of only Houston. NC Wilmington has covered five of its last six home games, while Drexel is 1-4 ATS following a victory.
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