Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-23-19 | Spurs +1 v. Grizzlies | Top | 145-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
The Spurs had started to turn around their disappointing season going 5-3 with victories against the Clippers and Rockets until losing, 134-109, at home to the Clippers. That was an embarrassing loss. I see the Spurs recovering against the Grizzlies. Memphis is 5-3 in its last eight games. Do note, though, that four of those victories have been against the Warriors, Wizards, Suns and Kings. Those are all bad teams. The Spurs have revenge motivation for a 113-109 home loss to the Grizzlies last month plus the humiliation of falling to the Clippers this past Saturday. This is priced around pick. I want Gregg Popovich going for me.
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12-22-19 | Nuggets v. Lakers -3.5 | Top | 128-104 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
The Nuggets have won five in a row and LeBron James is probably going to miss his first game of the season due to a muscle strain in his back. Because of these factors the line is greatly reduced from what it normally would be with LA at home. I will lay the short number not just because of the value factor, but because of the spot and my belief the Lakers will step up big time here to prove they can win at home without James. Let's start with the Nuggets. Their five consecutive victories have all come at home. They are a different team on the road. Denver is 1-4 SU, 1-3-1 ATS in its past five away matchups with the lone winner coming against the pathetic Knicks. On to the Lakers. They are back from a road trip that concluded Thursday with a loss to the Bucks, the best team in basketball. The Lakers also lost to the Pacers before that game, perhaps looking ahead to the marquee matchup against the Bucks. Now the Lakers are home where they have covered 13 of the last 18 times. LA hasn't lost three games in a row all season. The Lakers are going to dig in hard here. Obviously it's a monster bonus if James somehow plays. But I am not anticipating that. I am anticipating Kyle Kuzma, their third-best player, to be back in action tonight. The Lakers still have the best player on the court in Anthony Davis. Look for prideful veterans Dwight Howard and Rajon Rondo to spark a strong bench effort, too, after each of them played poorly versus the Bucks.
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12-22-19 | Cardinals +10.5 v. Seahawks | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 66 h 0 m | Show | |
Should be a great game when the 11-3 49ers meet the 11-3 Seahawks to decide the NFC West Division. Oh wait, that's next week. Seattle can't help but be looking ahead to that crucial matchup. Problem is the Seahawks aren't good enough to cover this high of a number especially in a look-ahead spot. The Seahawks being eight games above .500 doesn't match their statistics and point differential. They have outscored their opponents by just 26 points on the season. Seattle only has 24 sacks, which ranks among the bottom-three. The Seahawks also have half a dozen injuries to key defenders, including underrated free safety Quandre Diggs. He carries a doubtful tag while Seattle's other banged-up defensive players are questionable. The Cardinals are adept offensively. They have scored 25 or more points in seven of their last 10 games. Kyler Murray is a poor man's Russell Wilson. His weapons match the Seahawks especially with Josh Gordon back on suspension and likely done in the NFL, which was a distraction for Seattle this week. The Seahawks have actually played better on the road. They have covered only twice during their last seven home games often overpriced like they are here. Arizona is 8-4-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
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12-22-19 | Davidson +3 v. Loyola-Chicago | 59-56 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Loyola is 8-4. Davidson is 5-5. But the records are misleading. Davidson has played the much tougher schedule losing to Auburn, Charlotte, Wake Forest and Marquette while also defeating Wilmington and Nevada. The Ramblers are off a satisfying home win against Vanderbilt from four days ago. Davidson last played 12 days ago. So the Wildcats should be well rested and prepared. Davidson's strength is its backcourt and limiting turnovers. Note that this is Christmas break now so Loyola's fan base is going to be down.
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12-22-19 | Panthers v. Colts -6.5 | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 63 h 34 m | Show | |
Injuries and close decisions that didn't go their way ruined the Colts' season. But Indy is a well-coached solid team that almost always can be counted on to provide a strong effort under Frank Reich. The Colts are committed to finishing their year strong in an effort to reach .500. Not so with the rudderless Panthers. They are set adrift with Ron Rivera gone after nine seasons and playing the worst run defense in the league allowing an average of 6.3 yards per rush during their last three games. Carolina has surrendered at least three touchdowns in 10 consecutive games. That's the longest streak in the NFL. But what clinches this fade on the Panthers is Carolina's decision to start rookie Will Grier at QB. Grier was brutal during preseason with a 2-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and taking seven sacks. He couldn't beat out Kyle Allen to back up Cam Newton and then couldn't replace Allen as Allen kept getting worse and worse. Now the Panthers are in what-the-heck mode turning to Grier for this road start. I would be highly surprised if this turned out to be a positive experience for him and Carolina.
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12-21-19 | Northwestern v. DePaul -5 | 78-83 | Push | 0 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
Northwestern is average at best. The question is how good is DePaul? The Blue Demons are much improved. DePaul is 11-1, including 7-1 at home and 7-2 ATS in lined games. The Blue Demons had a strong recruiting class and the breakout has been immediate. The Blue Demons have strong motivation in this city rivalry. Northwestern came from 15 points down to defeat the Blue Demons, 75-68, last season. DePaul has dropped the past four in this series. The time is right now for that streak to end.
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12-21-19 | Bucks v. Knicks +13 | 123-102 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
The Knicks have shown a pulse under new coach Mike Miller going 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS in their last five games. But mainly this handicap is based on fading the Bucks due to the spot. Milwaukee just beat the Lakers at home on Thursday in the marquee matchup of the season. It was a highly satisfying win for the Bucks. Following this matchup, the Bucks fly right back home to host the hot Pacers on Sunday in a much more meaningful game. So focus. concentration and overconfidence could hamper the Bucks in trying to cover this large road number.
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12-21-19 | Central Michigan v. San Diego State -3.5 | Top | 11-48 | Win | 100 | 64 h 48 m | Show |
San Diego State's defense is going to trump Central Michigan's offense. The Aztec's finished in the top five in the nation in run defense, scoring defense and total defense. SDS held foes to 12.8 points a game. No team reached 24 points on the Aztecs, who also held all but three of their 12 opponents to 85 or fewer rushing yards. Central Michigan was stopped by Miami of Ohio, 26-21, in the MAC title game. San Diego State is a much better defensive team than Miami of Ohio. The Chippewas are 0-5 when rushing for fewer than 135 yards. Wyoming was the lone team to rush for more than 135 yards versus SDS. The Aztecs have enough offense to cover this number. The key for them is they don't turn the ball over averaging just 0.6 per game. San Diego State shouldn't lack motivation either coming off an embarrassing 27-0 loss to Ohio, another MAC team, in last year's Frisco Bowl. SDS also lost two years ago to Army in the Armed Forces Bowl so its seniors should have plenty of incentive. The venue - Albuquerque, N.M. - favors SDS, too. Not only is it closer for SDS fans to travel to but it's in high altitude and the Aztecs have experience playing there having met New Mexico two seasons ago.
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12-20-19 | Buffalo -4.5 v. Charlotte | Top | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 263 h 29 m | Show |
Buffalo holds key edges in the trenches both in running the ball and stopping the run. The Bulls' Jaret Patterson is one of the best backs in the nation. He rushed for 1,626 yards and accounted for 18 TD's. Charlotte has a good RB, too, in Benny LeMay. The Bulls, though, rank fourth in the nation in stopping the run, while the 49ers are 99th in run defense. Charlotte has failed to cover five of the last seven times it has faced a winning opponent. The 49ers won seven games to qualify for their first bowl game. But six of those victories were achieved against weak team and the other win came against Marshall when the Thundering Herd were in a flat spot. The 49ers are 5-13 ATS the past 18 times playing a team outside of Conference USA. Buffalo played in a bowl game last season. So the Bulls have bowl experience. Charlotte doesn't, which is a huge negative.
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12-19-19 | Nets v. Spurs -2.5 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
At 10-16, the Spurs are off to their worst start under Gregg Popovich. Lately, though, the Spurs have shown life. They have won four of their last seven games, including defeating the Clippers and Rockets during this time frame. San Antonio should be 5-2 during this span with two victories against the Rockets. However, the Spurs blew a 25-point lead against Houston on Monday when they last played. The Spurs have had two days to deal with that loss and get psyched for this matchup. They draw Brooklyn coming off a 108-101 overtime road victory against New Orleans. The Spurs hold a frontcourt edge on the Nets with LaMarcus Aldridge and their guards have picked up their play. There also is a mental hurdle the Nets face here. San Antonio has owned the Nets at home beating them 16 times in a row! The Nets haven't won at San Antonio since 2002.
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12-17-19 | Seattle University +16.5 v. Washington | 59-81 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 29 m | Show | |
Seattle is 6-5 and plays in the Westen Conference. Washington is ranked 22nd in the nation and plays in the far more prestigious Pac-12 Conference. So this high point spread is understandable on the surface. But there is more than meets the eye here. Seattle is playing its best basketball winning four in a row. The Redhawks are senior-laden, better than their record, have more to prove in this crosstowon rivalry matchup and have a big time player in Terrell Brown, who leads the Western Conference in scoring at 20.9 points. The Huskies are not a huge scoring team averaging 73.2 points a game. That ranks eighth in the Pac-12. Turnovers have plagued Washington. The Huskies have lost the turnover battle in seven of their nine games. Their turnover average ranks 267th out of 350 Division I teams. Seattle has played Washington tough each of the past two seasons losing 70-62 last year and 89-84 in 2017. The Redhawks should hang in again this season.
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12-16-19 | Spurs v. Rockets -10 | Top | 107-109 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
Gregg Popovich has been coaching the Spurs for 23 years. He's never had a season this bad. San Antonio is 10-15. The Spurs are even worse against the spread at 6-18-1 (25 percent), which is the worst ATS mark in the NBA. Houston is one of the best teams in the NBA. Yet when these teams last met two weeks ago in San Antonio, the Spurs won in double overtime, 135-133. The Rockets blew a 22-point lead in that game. That was also the game where the officials' mistakenly waved off James Harden's slam dunk basket. It was the most frustrating and controversial game of the season for the Rockets. Now Houston gets its chance for revenge. The Rockets not only are thirsty for payback, but they are off a surprising home loss to the Pistons this past Saturday. San Antonio is off an overtime victory against Phoenix also on Saturday. That game, though, was played in the high elevation of Mexico City. It was the fourth straight overtime game for the Spurs. So San Antonio could have a fatigue issue especially after playing Mexico City. The Spurs have failed to cover 17 of the last 21 times after a victory. The Rockets have a monster edge in the backcourt with James Harden and Russell Westbrook, while Clint Capela can hold his own in the frontcourt against the Spurs' big people.
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12-15-19 | CS-Northridge +7.5 v. Pacific | 73-79 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show | |
A pair of lower-league Northern California teams square off Sunday. Yes, Cal State-Northridge-Pacific is way below the radar screen, especially on an NFL Sunday. But there is enough value on the underdog to get involved with the Matadors. Pacific just nipped the Matadors, 79-77, last season. This year's matchup should be another close encounter. Each team averages 69 points. Pacific is a mid-sized favorite because it is home and has gaudy defensive numbers. There are reasons to believe this line is too high, though. The Tigers haven't played in more than a week. That's too long to be idle at this juncture of the season. Look for a rust factor. Pacific also is 2-7 ATS following a victory. Northridge played four days ago. The Matadors have covered five of their last six and are 4-0 ATS during their past four road games.
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12-15-19 | Patriots -9 v. Bengals | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 73 h 26 m | Show |
Can the Patriots be beaten for a third straight game? Can the Bengals pull this off? You have to be kidding. Go back to 2002. That's the last time the Patriots lost three in a row. The Patriots have covered 71 percent of the time off a loss during the last 17 years under Bill Belichick going 41-17. The Patriots' last two losses have come to the Texans and Chiefs. The Bengals have the worst record in the NFL. New England has feasted on bottom-feeders posting seven victories by at least 14 points. Cincinnati is the second-lowest scoring team in the NFL averaging 15.2 points a game. Not once have the Bengals scored more than 23 points in a game. New England has the top defense in the NFL giving up the fewest yards, points and yards per play. Cincinnati also ranks second-to-last in total defense, last in rushing defense and gives up the most yards per play. Tom Brady is far more effective when his ground attack is working. New England isn't going to lack motivation either. Not only do the Patriots need to win to maintain a high playoff seeding, but there is bad blood after the the Bengals brought up a new "Spygate" mention to the attention of the NFL. |
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12-14-19 | Nicholls State +19.5 v. West Virginia | 57-83 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker isn't giving Nicholls State enough respect. The Colonels are road-tested and have hung in against strong competition. Nicholls State took Illinois to overtime, fell by just just 10 points against ranked LSU, lost by five points each to Pittsburgh and Rhode Island. All of these contests were on the road. The Colonels are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road matchups. West Virginia is coming off an, 84-53, home win against Austin Peay on Thursday. The Mountaineers are 5-13 ATS following a victory.
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12-13-19 | Knicks v. Kings -8 | Top | 103-101 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
Quietly and well below the radar screen, the Kings have been one of the hottest point spread teams in the NBA covering 15 of their last 19 for 79 percent! The Knicks find themselves in a very rare situation - being in a letdown spot. New York halted a 10-game losing streak with a 124-122 road overtime victory against Golden State on Wednesday. The Knicks are 6-21 ATS following a spread cover. They haven't won consecutive games all season. The key here is are the Kings good enough to cover this high of a number? They haven't been this large of a favorite all season. I believe the Kings can given how well they are playing and the situation. Sacramento has won three in a row knocking off the Mavericks, Rockets and Thunder. Those teams are all considerably better than the Knicks with the Rockets and Mavericks rating among the best teams in the Western Conference. Marvin Bagley III is back for the Kings. He's their best big man. The Kings play their next four games on the road starting Sunday. So motivation shouldn't be a problem. New York is playing its third road game in four days. The Knicks rate with the Cavaliers, Hawks and Warriors as one of the four worst teams in the NBA. Even after scoring 124 points against the Warriors, the Knicks rank last in the NBA in scoring, field goal percentage and free throw percentage. Sacramento had no problem with the Knicks at Madison Square Garden last month beating them, 113-92. It was the Kings' fourth win in a row against New York.
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12-13-19 | Devils v. Avalanche -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 107 | 19 h 17 m | Show | |
Colorado is getting healthier and more dangerous. The Avalanche are 7-0-1 in their last eight games. They have two of the most dangerous lines in hockey - and both lines are back to full strength now. New Jersey comes into Denver winless in its last six games. The Devils have yielded the third most goals in the NHL, while Colorado leads the Western Conference in goals and is averaging 4.1 goals in its last eight games.The Devils, on the other hand, have scored just nine goals in their last six games. The Devils traditionally struggle in Denver's high altitude losing in seven of their last eight visits to the Avalanche. This is a mismatch right now of epic proportions. So laying high juice should be avoided by backing the Avalanche to win by more than one goal. |
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12-12-19 | Mavs -5 v. Pistons | Top | 122-111 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
First, note the venue. This game is being played in Mexico City. That's a plus for Dallas, which is much closer to Mexico than Detroit. The Mavericks also have several Spanish speaking players, including star point guard Luka Doncic. The Mavericks have been dominant away from home going 15-3-1 ATS (83 percent) in their last 19 road games. Dallas is at least one level, if not two levels, higher than Detroit. The Mavericks last played on Sunday. So they've had ample time to rest, prepare and stew over their last game, a home loss to the Kings that ended a five-game win streak. The Pistons have played a weaker schedule. They've met only three teams from the Western Conference, all of whom have losing records.
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12-11-19 | Lakers -6.5 v. Magic | Top | 96-87 | Win | 100 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
The Lakers are among the three best teams in basketball. They are a sizzling 14-1 in their last 15 games and unbeaten away from Staples Center going 11-0. I rate the Lakers close to three levels higher than Orlando. The Magic have consistently failed to step up against elite competition going 1-9 versus above average teams. The Lakers should be focused and energized having last played on Sunday. The Magic have failed to cover in five of their last seven home games. |
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12-10-19 | Blackhawks v. Golden Knights -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 125 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
The Blackhawks come into Las Vegas carrying a heavy fatigue rating. This marks their fourth game in six days. They've been involved in an overtime game and two shootouts during this span. Chicago draws an angry Golden Knights squad that was shut out, 5-0, at home by the Rangers this past Sunday. Las Vegas should have Marc-Andre Fleury back in net. He missed the last seven games because his father passed away. Las Vegas also has revenge motivation for a 5-3 home loss to the Blackhawks on Nov. 13. |
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12-09-19 | Raptors -5 v. Bulls | Top | 93-92 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Toronto is in stop-the-pain mode on a season-long three-game losing streak. Those losses, however, have occurred to the Heat in overtime, Rockets and 76ers. Now the Raptors step way down in class taking on a lottery foe they have owned. Toronto has won won the past 10 meetings against the Bulls, including, 108-84, earlier this season at Chicago. It was the fifth straight time the Raptors have covered at the Bulls. The defending champions know how to get it done against weaker opponents. Toronto is 13-3 ATS the past 16 times when facing below .500 teams. The Raptors may not have injured guard Fred VonVleet against the Bulls. He hurt his knee in Sunday's 110-104 loss to the 76ers. But starting point guard Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka are back for Toronto. Toronto matches up well to the Bulls. The Raptors rank No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage while the Bulls are the second-worst shooting team in the league.The Bulls also played on Sunday and suffered a tough 110-105 overtime loss to the Heat on the road squandering a one-point lead in the final seconds. Rarely do the Bulls play well in back-to-back games.
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12-08-19 | Thunder v. Blazers -3.5 | 108-96 | Loss | -113 | 19 h 57 m | Show | |
Portland is playing better than it did when it defeated Oklahoma City, 136-119, at home on Nov. 27 and defeated the Thunder, 102-99, on the road Oct. 30. The Trail Blazers were 4-1 in their last five games until falling to the Lakers at home, 136-113, this past Friday. No shame in that. I rank the Lakers as one of the two best teams in the NBA. Portland lost Rodney Hood, who was enjoying a strong season, for the year in that loss. Hood suffered a torn Achilles. I expect Portland to come back strong at home. Teams often rally and play well in the first game after losing a good player. The Trail Blazers have a strong history under Terry Stotts of playing well following a blowout loss, too. They are 6-1-1 ATS the past eight times after suffering a double-digit defeat. Oklahoma City is a bad road club. The Thunder are 2-7 away from home with their lone road wins coming against the Pelicans and Warriors, who have a combined record of 11-36. The Thunder enter this matchup fat and happy after pulling off one of the more improbable victories of the season. The Thunder beat the Timberwolves in overtime at home on Friday. They forced overtime by scoring a basketball at the buzzer off a long pass after trailing by two points with 1.1 seconds left and Karl-Anthony Towns at the free throw line for Minnesota.
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12-08-19 | Seahawks v. Rams +1 | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 98 h 3 m | Show | |
Under the right circumstances, Jared Goff is a good quarterback. This is the right spot for Goff. He's home in California and the Seahawks don't generate a strong pass rush. Goff has the necessary weapons to light up the Seahawks' mediocre secondary with four quality wide receivers and Todd Gurley. The Seahawks are traveling on a short week after getting past the Vikings at home this past Monday. The Rams have covered five of the last seven times they've hosted Seattle.
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12-08-19 | Colts +3 v. Bucs | 35-38 | Push | 0 | 91 h 52 m | Show | |
Better team getting points. That's it in a nutshell. The Colts also are getting back their best running back, Marlon Mack, and perhaps their top wide receiver, T.Y. Hilton. The Buccaneers are error-prone offensively with Jameis Winston remaining a model of inconsistency.The Bucs also rank 30th in scoring defense giving up 28.8 points a game. The Colts are much more solid in the trenches, too. Indy is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road games. Tampa Bay is 2-5-1 ATS the past eight times as a favorite, including 1-3 ATS this season
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12-08-19 | Dolphins v. Jets -5 | 21-22 | Loss | -105 | 91 h 49 m | Show | |
The warm-weather Dolphins enter New York's December weather fat and happy having just upset the Eagles at home. This is a huge revenge game for Adam Gase against his former team. The Jets got caught peeking ahead to this matchup losing to the previously winless Bengals last Sunday. Expect a much more focused effort by the Jets in this game. Before getting upset by the Bengals, the Jets had reeled off three consecutive victories scoring 34 points in each of those games. If they hadn't lost to the Bengals, the line would be much higher. Now it's less than a touchdown. The Jets have the top run defense in the league. Their offense has much been better skill position people than Miami and their offensive line has showed improvement during the second half of the season.
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12-08-19 | Bengals +10 v. Browns | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 91 h 46 m | Show | |
Cincinnati is bad. Cleveland is dysfunctional. Bottom line is this is too many points in a division rivalry game, especially considering the Browns are without their top defensive player, elite pass rusher Myles Garrett, and Baker Mayfield may not be 100 percent due to a sore throwing hand. The Bengals are consistently undervalued on the road. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 away contests. Cincinnati's confidence gained a huge boost with a victory against the Jets last Sunday. The Bengals can be counted on to give a full effort and their offense is upgraded with Andy Dalton back under center and speedster John Ross off the injured list. |
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12-07-19 | Illinois +11 v. Maryland | 58-59 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
Maryland is unbeaten and ranked No. 3 in the country. But matchup-wise and situationally I can see Illinois staying within single digits of the Terrapins. Illinois is coming off a bad loss to Miami after having won four in a row. The Illini are inconsistent, but they have talent. Illinois beat Maryland last season on the road and the Illini are better this season. Maryland is strong defensively. The Terrapins are vulnerable here, though, because they are not a great shooting team, are undersized in the middle and thus can be exploited by Illinois' talened 7-footer Kofi Cockburn, who averages 23 points, and have a bigger game on deck. The Terrapins are fat and happy opening 9-0 for the first time in 21 years. They face a much bigger challenge playing their first true road game against Penn State on Tuesday. Thus they could get caught peeking past Illinois.
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12-07-19 | Georgia +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 10 m | Show |
I don't see where LSU is a touchdown better than Georgia at a neutral site. George has the better defense and is more experienced in big game neutral site games than LSU. The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine neutral site games. The Bulldogs rank No. 2 in the country in scoring defense giving up 10.4 points a game. They haven't surrendered more than 20 points all season! As good as LSU is offensively, Georgia has the better rushing numbers and gives up 2.7 yards per run, while the Tigers yield 3.8 yards a run. When it comes to passing, Georgia allows 9.6 yards per completion compared to LSU's 13 yards per completion. Georgia needs a victory here to reach the College Football Playoffs, while LSU already is in. So more is at stake for the Bulldogs.
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12-07-19 | Baylor v. Oklahoma -8.5 | 23-30 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 18 m | Show | |
Oklahoma was on the road, playing flat and without its best wide receiver, CeeDee Lamb. This was three weeks ago against upstart Baylor in Waco, Texas. Baylor jumped out to a 25-point lead against the Sooners. Yet Oklahoma still managed to pull out a 34-31 victory. Now the teams meet at a neutral site and Lamb is back healthy. The Sooners have loads of big-game, neutral site title game experience. Baylor doesn't I don't see the Bears being able to hang within single digits of the Sooners especially coming off that recent defeat to Oklahoma. I like Baylor QB Charlie Brewer. But he's not in the class of the Sooners' Jalen Hurts, who could be the best dual threat QB in college with his passing and rushing ability.
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12-06-19 | Wizards v. Heat -9.5 | Top | 103-112 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Miami is 8-0 at home this season. Going back to last season, the Heat are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 home contests. Miami shoots 51.4 percent from the floor at home compared to 45.1 percent away. The Heat give up 17 fewer points per game than the Wizards. Washington is 12-29-1 ATS the last 42 times it has been on the road facing an above .500 home foe. Not only is Miam vastly superior to Washington - which this point spread reflects - but it draws the Wizards being in a highly favorable situational spot. The line doesn't fully reflect that. Washington is off maybe its best game of the season, a 119-113 home win against the 76ers. The Wizards had lost three in a row prior to that victory. The Heat are off a disappointing, 112-93, road loss to the Celtics from Wednesday. Miami is 18-7-1 ATS following a non-cover. The Heat also are 14-2-1 ATS the past 17 times when going against a below .500 opponent. The Wizards are shorthanded in the middle with center Thomas Bryant sidelined with a foot injury. In addition, point guard Isaiah Thomas is dealing with a calf injury.
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12-05-19 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Bears | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -130 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
The Cowboys are the more well-rounded team with far better skill position talent than the Bears. Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot rate major edges on Mitch Trubisky and David Montgomery. The Bears haven't recovered from their London loss to the Raiders. They are 3-5 in their last eight games with their lone victories during this span coming against the Giants and Lions twice. Those teams have a combined record of 5-18. Trubisky has only played well against the Lions. He's been a stiff against every other opponent. Chicago's defense is down from last season and its offense has been hijacked by Trubisky's lack of progress. Chicago's run defense is prey to Elliott likley missing run-stuffing Akiem Hicks and linebacker Danny Trevathan. The Cowboys are the more motivated team. Dallas is that rare team that rates high in both offensive and defensive yards. The Cowboys average the most yards per game in the NFL and they surrender the eighth-fewest yards.
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12-04-19 | Kings v. Blazers -3 | Top | 116-127 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
You wouldn't know it from their Tuesday performance against the Clippers, but the Trail Blazers are back on track after multiple frontcourt injuries helped cause a rough 2-10 stretch last month. Portland had rebounded to win three in a row until getting blown out, 117-97, on the road by the Clippers last night. The Clippers are 13-1 at home and one of the five best teams in the NBA. The Kings are a likely lottery team again. They are missing their second-best scorer, De'Aaron Fox, and top big man, Marvin Bagley III. Both are injured and not expected to return to the lineup until later this month. In addition. Bogdan Bogdanovic is dealing with a sore hamstring. He's the Kings' fourth-leading scorer and top reserve player. The Trail Blazers have fortified their All-Star backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum by taking a chance on Carmelo Anthony, who has played well. Center Hassan Whiteside is having a strong bounce back year, too, for the Trail Blazers after leaving Miami. The one positive to the Trail Blazers' loss to the Clippers last night was not a single Portland player logged more than 30 minutes. Portland had not played in three days prior to the loss to the Clippers. So there should not be a fatigue factor. Note, too, that Sacramento has lost during its last 11 visits to Portland.
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12-04-19 | Loyola Marymount +18.5 v. Colorado | 64-76 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show | |
Colorado is ranked 20th in the latest Top 25 Associated Press poll. The Buffaloes, though, have been sloppy averaging 14 turnovers a game. Loyola Marymount forces 13.5 turnovers per game and shoots 50.7 percent from the floor, which ranks 13th-best in the nation. Those are some of the reasons I like the Lions to cover this margin. But the biggest facor is Colorado plays No. 2 ranked Kansas on Saturday. It's the first time in five years the Buffaloes are playing a Top-25 team while also being ranked in the Top-25. So the Buffaloes may not be fully focused. It could also mean the backdoor is left open for the Lions since Colorado doesn't want to totally tax itself with a such a monster matchup on the horizon.
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12-03-19 | UTEP +5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 56-59 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
Yes, home-court and revenge are worth something. Just not this much. The teams met three weeks ago and Texas El-Paso won by 15 points, 65-50. New Mexico State had trouble handling UTEP's press. The Aggies have played better since then. But the Miners also are playing well. They are 5-0 on the season and their bench strength just got a huge boost with Kaden Archie, a transfer from TCU, now eligible. The Miners won the first matchup despite Bryson Williams limited to just 17 minutes due to foul trouble. Williams is the best player on the court averaging 18 points and 6.8 rebounds a game. He still scored 19 points and pulled down eight rebounds in the first meeting. UTEP has covered eight of its last nine nonconference games for 89 percent. |
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12-01-19 | Patriots -3 v. Texans | Top | 22-28 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 56 m | Show |
The Patriots' defense is putting up numbers not seen since the 2000 Ravens. I don't see the Texans, with their weak offensive line, lack of a ground attack and poor coaching, being able to solve New England's defense. New England is getting better offensively as more offensive linemen and wide receivers get healthy. The Texans have a slow, banged-up secondary and their pass rush took a massive hit with J.J. Watt sidelined for the season. Bill Belichick has had Bill O'Brien's number. The Patriots are 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS versus the Texans since 2015. Belichick won't be adverse to running up a score, too. There is bad blood between these two teams after the Patriots filed tampering charges after the Texans tried to lure New England's director of player personnel, Nick Caserio, to be their general manager.
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12-01-19 | Spurs +4 v. Pistons | 98-132 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
The 7-13 Spurs probably are the most disappointing team in the NBA at this juncture. But unlike the Warriors, the Spurs still maintain All-Stars in LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan. I'm not ready to close the book on any team with that talent especially one coached by Gregg Popovich. The Spurs showed they aren't dead by haltiing the Clippers' seven-game win streak, 107-97, on Friday. The Clippers are a top-five team. That should give the Spurs a much needed jolt of confidence. This is San Antonio's lone road game during a seven-game stretch. The Rockets are up next for the Spurs - and that's a probable loss. So San Antonio should be focused for this matchup. It's a big step down from the Clippers. The Pistons are seven games below .500 and that's having played only one Western Conference opponent so far, the Timberwolves. Detroit has two stars, too, in Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin. But I would take the rest of the Spurs' lineup against the Pistons. The Spurs hold a winning record versus sub .500 opponents and have covered seven of the last nine times versus Detroit.
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12-01-19 | Jets v. Bengals +4 | 6-22 | Win | 100 | 120 h 7 m | Show | |
The Dolphins scored their first win against the Jets. The winless Bengals can do the same. Cincinnati is much better at QB with Andy Dalton back in the starting role. Left tackle Cordy Glenn is back, too, for Cincinnati to shore up the offensive line. It's an added bonus if A.J. Green finally is ready to make his season debut. The Bengals haven't shown any quit holding the Steelers and Raiders to a combined 33 points the past two weeks, covering both games. Their morale should be up, too, with Dalton back under center. The Jets are in a flat spot traveling after beating up Oakland at home last Sunday. The Jets have won three straight - all against weak opponents in the Giants, Redskins and Raiders with two of those victories coming at home. New York is 1-4 on the road with its lone victory being against the Redskins. The Jets have been outscored by 63 points in their away defeats.
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11-30-19 | Nuggets -4 v. Kings | Top | 97-100 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
This line is short. Denver is far superior to Sacramento. The Nuggets also are healthy. The Kings are missing their second-leading scorer, De'Aaron Fox, and best big man, Marvin Bagley III. The Nuggets enter this matchup well-rested and hot, winners of six in a row. Denver has been idle since Tuesday. The Kings are in a tougher situational spot even though they are the home team having just returned from a four-game East Coast trip. Denver is 5-1 on the road this season. One of those victories was against the Kings, 101-94, during the second week of the season when Fox was playing for Sacramento. The Nuggets won that matchup by seven points despite an off-game from their best player, Nikola Jokic, and making just 36.7 percent of their field goal attempts. Taking on the Kings always holds special meaning for Denver coach Michael Malone. He was fired by the Kings after coaching them for just two seasons. I regard Malone as one of the better coaches in the league. He has the Nuggets playing their finest defense ever, ranking No. 1 in the NBA in fewest points per game. The Nuggets have covered eight of the past 10 times against the Kings.
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11-30-19 | UNLV v. Nevada -7 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
Nevada Reno is the superior team, is home and in strong revenge mode after blowing a 23-0 lead to UNLV last season in losing, 34-29, in this annual rivalry matchup. The Wolf Pack eased up in that game and it cost them. That won't be the case this season. Nevada coach Jay Norvell has done everything to fire up his team, including bringing in former Nevada coach Chris Ault to speak to the team. The Wolf Pack should enter this matchup with a lot of confidence having just upset San Diego State and Fresno State both on the road during their past two games. UNLV, by contrast, lost by 29 points at Fresno State and lost by three points to San Diego State at home. UNLV is off an emotional victory against San Jose State. That was the final game played at Sam Boyd Stadium and the Rebels were fired-up for it. Now reality sinks in. The Rebels aren't going to a bowl game for a fifth straight year and coach Tony Sanchez has been fired.
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11-29-19 | Jazz -6.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 103-94 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
The teams met just two weeks ago and the Grizzlies beat the Jazz, 107-106, as 7 1/2-point home 'dogs. The Jazz have huge revenge and the line this time around is lower. Mike Conley did not play well in his return to Memphis after being the Grizzlies' point guard for 12 years. Conley vows to be more focused and play better today. Utah made just 40.1 percent of its field goal attempts in that earlier loss to the Grizzlies. The Jazz are not only are anxious for this rematch, but ready to get back on the court after suffering an embarrassing, 121-102, road loss to the Pacers two days ago. The Jazz did get back star center Rudy Gobert in that game. He had been out two games with an ankle injury. The Grizzlies are in a major rebuild job. They've lost five in a row since upsetting the Jazz.
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11-28-19 | Saints -6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 26-18 | Win | 100 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
The Saints have a legitimate claim to being the best team in the NFC. The Falcons are one of the worst. New Orleans has been great against the spread, too, covering seven of its last nine. One of those non-covers was an embarrassing straight-up home loss to Atlanta from three weeks ago. The Saints were two-touchdown favorites in that game. Now they are just a touchdown favorite. Is the Falcons' home field advantage worth that much? Of course not. The Saints won't have the starting left side of their offensive line with Terron Armstead and Andrus Peat out. But that didn't matter last week when Brees was sacked just twice in 41 dropbacks against the Panthers, who have a stronger pass rush than the Falcons. Brees has a very quick release and tremendous weapons. The Falcons have no answer for Michael Thomas, who is on a record-setting receiving pace. Matt Ryan is dealing with a worse offensive line and is down weapons with Mohamed Sanu traded, Austin Hooper out and backup running back Ito Smith also sidelined. The Falcons probably get back Devonta Freeman, but he's had a disappointing season. Ryan still could be dealing with a sore ankle. He's completed just 57.6 percent of his throws for 6.6 yards per attempt with a three-to-five touchdown-to-turnover ratio during his last four games.
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11-28-19 | Bills v. Cowboys -6.5 | 26-15 | Loss | -109 | 51 h 23 m | Show | |
The visiting team has a huge disadvantage playing on Thursday night especially this late in the season. The Cowboys are the better team and given the situational circumstances, I see Dallas winning by more than a touchdown. Don't be fooled by Buffalo's 8-3 record. It's bogus. The Bills have played opponents whose combined record is 19-53. They haven't faced an offense the caliber of Dallas. The Bills rank third versus the pass, but are just average versus the run. That makes them vulnerable to Ezekiel Elliott. He should be in line for a big game, which in turn would make Dak Prescott very effective picking his spots. Prescott has three quality wideouts plus Elliott out of the backfield catching passes. Buffalo lacks explosiveness on offense to keep up. The Cowboys rank in the top-seven in total defense and scoring defense. They are extremely well-coached on the defensive side of the ball. I wouldn't be surprised to see Josh Allen make a lot of mistakes in this matchup.
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11-28-19 | Bears -2.5 v. Lions | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 57 h 14 m | Show |
The Bears have been a major disappointment this season. But the Lions are in worse shape. Detroit has dropped four in a row. The teams just met three weeks ago and Chicago won, 20-13. The Lions didn't have Matthew Stafford in that game and they won't have him Thursday. The Lions also aren't going to have second-stringer Jeff Driskel either. Driskel hurt his hamstring in the Lions' loss to the Redskins this past Sunday. So the Lions are forced to turn to rookie David Blough. He's never taken an NFL snap. Hopefully, you locked into this game early in the week like I did in anticipation of upward line movement. Even if you didn't, though, this is a kill spot for the Bears. Their defense should overwhelm the overmatched Blough. Chicago's defense ranks fourth in fewest points allowed and in fewest yards allowed. The Lions' defense, by contrast, ranks 29th in total yards and 26th in scoring defense. The Bears surrender 81 fewer yards per game than the Lions and nine fewer points a game. The Bears' biggest problem is Mitchell Trubisky. He plays well, though, against the Lions. Trubisky completed 16 of 23 passes for 173 yards and three touchdowns in the earlier victory against the Lions. Trubisky faced the Lions once last season and passed for 355 yards and three touchdowns in a 34-22 win. |
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11-26-19 | Wizards +10 v. Nuggets | Top | 104-117 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
The Wizards are a lottery team. But they are winners when it comes to being big underdogs. Washington is 6-0-1 ATS when taking more than five points this season. The Wizards also are 5-1-1 ATS during their last seven road contests and have covered five of the past six times when meeting the Nuggets. Washington is the No. 2 scoring team in the NBA averaging 119 points. The Wizards should be pumped for this matchup off a bad home loss to Sacramento two days ago. This is the start of a four-game Western Conference swing for the Wizards that includes games against the Lakers and Clippers. The Nuggets are fat and happy going 3-0 on their current homestand with victories against the Suns, Celtics and Rockets. This is their fourth game in seven days. They won't play again until Saturday.
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11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams +4 | Top | 45-6 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are a hot commodity. The Rams are struggling to make the playoffs at 6-4. The combination makes the Rams a good value play. LA has the defense, coaching smarts and offense to win this game straight-up. Oh, yes, the situation is perfect for them, too. Jared Goff is a quarterback you don't want to touch on the road especially in cold weather. But he and the Rams offense are a different animal at home especially against a defense that doesn't apply that much quarterback heat. Goff has all his receiving weapons back, too, with deep threat Brandin Cooks expected to play. The Rams have four quality wideouts plus Todd Gurley in the backfield. The Rams defense is strong with Jalen Ramsey shoring up the secondary and Aaron Donald having another dominating season in the trenches. Wade Phillips is in the argument for being the top defensive coordinator in the NFL. This is a unit that can control Jackson.
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11-25-19 | 76ers v. Raptors +2 | 96-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm not buying the Raptors as a home 'dog to the 76ers. Philadelphia may emerge as the team to beat in the Eastern Conference, but the Raptors still are very dangerous at home even without Kawhi Leonard and injured Kyle Lowery. The 76ers know this better than any team. Toronto has defeated Philadelphia 13 straight times at home during the regular season going 9-3-1 ATS the past 13 times hosting the 76ers. Toronto is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 home contests. The 76ers have lost five of their past six away games. Their only victory during this road span was against the lowly Cavaliers. There's a chance the Raptors get back injured forward Serge Ibaka, too. He's missed the last seven games with a sprained ankle.
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11-24-19 | Steelers v. Bengals +7 | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 92 h 7 m | Show | |
No, I don't like being on the Bengals. But laying this many points on the road with the punchless Steelers is much worse. Pittsburgh has a strong defense, playoff-caliber. But the Steelers aren't going to reach the postseason because Mason Rudolph is a stiff. Rudolph needs weapons and he's not going to have them here. Center Maurkice Pouncey is suspended. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt's No. 1 wideout by far, is injured and won't play. I doubt James Conner, the Steelers' No. 1 runner, plays either. He missed last week and remains banged-up. Even when they had Ben Roethlisberger healthy, the Steelers still were bad on the road. They are 1-6 in their last seven road games, including 1-3 this season. The Steelers have the lowest road scoring percentage of possessions in the NFL. The Bengals should play hard trying to get their first win, being home and facing a much hated division opponent. So taking this many points looms large especially given the low total in this matchup.
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11-24-19 | Raiders v. Jets +3 | Top | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 92 h 6 m | Show |
Jon Gruden has improved the Raiders this season. But he hasn't improved Oakland enough where it can cover as a road favorite in a flat spot like this. The Raiders are traveling cross-country for an early West Coast start time. Up next for Oakland is an AFC West showdown against the Chiefs. Under Gruden, the Raiders have failed to cover in eight of 12 away matchups. The Raiders need to establish a balanced attack. The Jets do one thing extremely well - stop the run ranking No. 1 in the NFL giving up fewer than 80 yards per game. Saquan Barkley managed just one yard on 13 carries against the Jets. That does not bode well for Josh Jacobs. Oakland is vulnerable through the air ranking 27th in pass defense. Sam Darnold has started to play better and has good receiving targets to take advantage. The Jets' strengths match up well to Oakland and New York also is in the superior situational spot.
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11-23-19 | Washington v. Colorado +14.5 | Top | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 57 h 47 m | Show |
This high line might be justified from a Washington point of view if this were last season and if the Huskies cared about this game. But it's not. Washington is down from the past couple of seasons. The Huskies have the third-best defense in the Pac-12. Certainly that's good by ordinary standards, but not by Washington standards. The Huskies had led the Pac-12 in the key defensive categories during the previous four seasons. Colorado has receiving weapons for experienced QB Steven Montez with Laviska Shenault, Tony Brown and K.D. Nixon. Shenault is one of the top wideouts in the nation. The Huskies already have a bowl spot secured with their 6-4 record. They have a look-ahead spot with their traditional season-ending game against Washington State next week. The Buffaloes are in must-win mode if they want to stay alive for a bowl berth. They have played better at home going 3-2 ATS posting straight-up victories against Nebraska and Stanford. Colorado lost by four points to USC as 10 1/2-point home 'dogs.
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11-23-19 | Manhattan v. Elon +1 | 69-64 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
Far from the glare of the national spotlight is this matchup. Elon is at home and its record is misleading because the Phoenix have played far stronger competition than Manhattan. In its last three games, Elon has taken on Georgia Tech, Michigan and North Carolina. The Phoenix covered against both Michigan and North Carolina. The Jaspers have played far weaker competition and have failed to cover four of the last five times they've played in non-conference.
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11-23-19 | Texas +6 v. Baylor | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
It may take more than a week for Baylor to get over its choke job against Oklahoma. The Sooners rallied from 25 points down to beat the Bears last week ending Baylor's hopes of an unbeaten season. Baylor doesn't even need to win this game to earn a rematch with the Sooners in the Big 12 title game. All the Bears have to do to accomplish that is defeat Kansas in their regular season finale. Texas has had a disappointing season. But the Longhorns still have an outside chance of a conference title plus a strong bowl game if they win their final two regular season games. The Longhorns are at their most dangerous in an underdog role thanks to Tom Herman. He's the premier underdog coach in CFB. Herman coached Houston for two years before going to Texas. The Cougars were 5-0 ATS as 'dogs under Herman. The Longhorns are 10-4 ATS when getting points in three years under Herman. So Herman's combined head coaching record against the spread as an underdog is 15-4 (79 percent)! I like Baylor QB Charlie Brewer. But I like Texas QB Sam Ehlinger even more. Texas has defeated Baylor the past four times the teams have met, including 23-17 last season and 38-7 in Waco two years ago.
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11-23-19 | Michigan v. Indiana +10 | 39-14 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 58 m | Show | |
Michigan's biggest game of its season always is Ohio State. It's one of the top rivalries in the nation and the best one in the Big Ten. The Wolverines host the Buckeyes next week. That puts them in a dangerous look-ahead spot here against Indiana. It's also a Big Ten Conference sandwich spot for the Wolverines as they just whipped their hated in-state rival, Michigan State, at home this past Saturday. The Wolverines are 1-4 ATS the last five years in their previous game before Ohio State, including failing to cover the last three seasons in this spot. Indiana is much improved. The Hoosiers reached the Top 25 for the first time since 1994 before suffering a 34-27 road loss to Penn State last week. Indiana covered that game and is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games. Michigan hasn't beaten Indiana on the road by more than seven points in its last three visits. The Hoosiers are averaging 33.3 points. They have the offense to stay within single digits of the Wolverines at home again especially considering Michigan's negative scheduling dynamics.
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11-23-19 | BYU v. UMass +40.5 | 56-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 10 m | Show | |
BYU just isn't good enough to lay this kind of number especially on the road with an early East Coast start time and being in a letdown spot following four consecutive victories. UMass is one of the worst teams in college football. But the Minutemen are capable of putting up points. They average 28.2 points at home. The Minutemen haven't played a home game in three weeks. This is their final game of the season so an effort should be forthcoming. |
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11-22-19 | Rockets +4.5 v. Clippers | 119-122 | Win | 100 | 21 h 12 m | Show | |
Paul George is back for the Clippers. George and Kawhi Leonard are one of the few tandems that can match Houston's superstar backcourt duo of James Harden and Russell Westbrook. It's going to take time for George and Leonard to jell, though. Harden and Westbrook have had much more time together. They are in sync now. The result is Houston going 8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS in its last nine games. The Rockets defeated the Clippers just nine days ago, 103-92, laying 2 1/2 points. Harden burned Patrick Beverley for 47 points. Now look at the spread. It's too high to justify the Clippers being home and having George this time around.
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11-22-19 | Fordham v. Nevada -5.5 | 60-74 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
Don't be fooled by Fordham's 3-0 record and Nevada's 2-3 record. Fordham is terrible. The Rams have just played an easy schedule. Nevada is the superior team and has played vastly better competition with its losses occurring to Davidson, USC and Utah. Note this matchup is part of the eight-team Paradise Jam tournament taking place in the Virgin Islands. The Rams probaby are going to be the worst team in the Atlantic-10 and are the worst of the tournament teams here. The Rams were terrible last season and are down point guard Nick Honor, who led them in scoring last year and transferred to Clemson during the off-season. Nevada has the better shooters and athletes. The Rams have failed to cover 20 of their past 28 times in non-conference games.
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11-20-19 | Texas State v. UNLV -5 | 64-57 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 11 m | Show | |
UNLV is much tougher at home and has played the stronger schedule. The Rebels lost to California and Kansas State both in overtime and also lost to UCLA. Texas State has played just one strong opponent, Baylor. The Bobcats lost that game, 75-63. The Bobcats are 0-2 on the road. UNLV got back to winning and covering defeating Abilene Christian, 72-58, at home on Monday.
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11-20-19 | Pistons +1.5 v. Bulls | Top | 89-109 | Loss | -104 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
Both teams are struggling. But with Blake Griffin back to team with Andre Drummond, the Pistons have the two best players on the court. This spot favors Detroit, too, on several counts. Not only do the Pistons have revenge for a 112-106 road loss to the Bulls from three weeks ago when they were without Griffin, but they have been idle since Friday. The Bulls, by contrast, are in action for the third time in five days. Chicago is just 2-5 at home. The Bulls are minus injured Otto Porter Jr. and Lauri Markkanen, their best big man, is off to a slow start shooting just 36.2 percent from the floor.
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11-18-19 | Pacers +4 v. Nets | Top | 115-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Indiana had won seven of eight games until losing on the road to the Rockets and at home to the Bucks in its last two games. Now the Pacers go back down in class to take on the Nets. Indiana has covered five of the past six times when taking on sub-.500 opponents. Brooklyn hosted Indiana back on Oct. 30 and the Pacers won, 118-108. The season was just beginning back then and the Nets were 3-point favorites. The Nets haven't been a good team so far yet this spread is higher. This is a favorable situation for Indiana and the Nets have an underrated key injury with guard Caris LeVert out until next month due to a thumb injury. He might be Brooklyn's second best player behind Kyrie Irving. The Nets finished a five-game, nine-day road trip by beating the Bulls two nights ago. Irving sat out that game because of a sore shoulder. I assume he's going to play here. It's an unexpected bonus if he doesn't. I'm taking the number now because if word comes out later that Irving won't play the line is sure to drop. The Nets' concentration level could be down a notch in their first game back from their long road journey. The Pacers rank sixth defensively, the Nets 27th. Indiana is giving up 12 fewer points per game than the Nets. Center Myles Turner is back from an ankle injury and looked good in his last game. Power forward Domantas Sabonis is having a strong season on a string of seven straight double/doubles. Turner and Sabonis give the Pacers a frontcourt edge. Indiana is minus injured guard Malcolm Brogdon. That's a significant missing piece. However, the Nets' guard advantage is reduced with LeVert sidelined. The Pacers have covered in nine of their last 11 games against the Nets, including covering the last five times in Brooklyn.
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11-17-19 | Hawks +13.5 v. Lakers | Top | 101-122 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
The Lakers had to laugh at Atlanta if they were watching any of the Hawks-Clippers Saturday night game. The Clippers won, 150-101. It was the Hawks' worst loss since moving to Atlanta from St. Louis. The Lakers can't help but take the Hawks for granted. Look for the Hawks, though, to play the Lakers tough in this matchup. Not only is there the embarrassment factor from Saturday night, but the Hawks also shouldn't feel the normal fatigue associated with playing on the second of consecutive nights. Only one Atlanta player reached the 30-minute level Saturday due to the blowout. The game also was played at Staples Center, an arena both the Clippers and Lakers use as their home-court. So there is no travel involved for the Hawks. Note these trends, too: The Hawks have covered 11 of their last 16 road contests and are 9-5 ATS versus above .500 foes.
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11-17-19 | Bengals +11.5 v. Raiders | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 117 h 50 m | Show | |
I get that the Bengals remain the only winless team in the NFL and that their new QB, Ryan Finley, isn't even as good as Andy Dalton. But the Raiders aren't a team to lay this high of a number. Only once during the Jon Gruden era have the Raiders won a game by more than eight points. Oakland is in a flat spot, too, having narrowly won a huge home division game against the Chargers last week. This is the Raiders' third home game in a row. Finley could prove better now that he's had a start. He's going against the league's 30th-ranked pass defense. The Raiders are down their three best players in the secondary with safety Karl Joseph out with a foot injury. Earlier they lost safety Jonathan Abram to injury and traded cornerback Gareon Conley. It's a huge added bonus if the Bengals finally get the services of star wide receiver A.J. Green and offensive left tackle Cordy Glenn for the first time this season. The Bengals have been money-makers on the road covering in seven of their last nine road contests.
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11-17-19 | Jets +1.5 v. Redskins | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 114 h 31 m | Show | |
The Jets do one thing exceptionally well and that's stop the run. They rank No. 2 in rush defense. The Redskins have become totally reliant on a ground-and-pound approach under interim coach Bill Callahan. That means heavy duty work for 34-year-old Adrian Peterson. This might be a sound approach - if it were 2012. Washington is force-feeding not-ready QB Dwayne Haskins. This reminds me of what the Browns experienced during their winless 2017 season when they kept trotting out overmatched DeShone Kizer at QB. The Jets have the superior skill position players. Sam Darnold is off to a slow start in this his second season. However, he still rates a strong edge on Haskins.
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11-16-19 | St Bonaventure v. Rutgers -8.5 | 80-74 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
St. Bonaventure can't shoot. The Bonnies are making just 35 percent from the floor and 23 percent from 3-point range. The result is they are averaging fewer than 60 points per game and are 0-3. I don't see St. Bonaventure ending its shooting woes against Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are 3-0 and ranked 32nd in the country in scoring defense holding opponents to 55.7 points a game. Note this game is being played in Toronto as part of the James Naismith Hall of Fame Classic. Rutgers is playing much better right now than St. Bonaventure. So I'll go ahead and ride the Scarlet Knights against the cold-shooting Bonnies.
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11-16-19 | LSU v. Ole Miss +21.5 | Top | 58-37 | Win | 100 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
Huge letdown spot here for LSU after the Tigers' great SEC showdown victory over Alabama last week. That effort was both physically and emotionally draining for the Tigers. If you discount its loss to Alabama, Mississippi has lost five games by an average of 6.6 points. The Rebels played both Texas A&M and Auburn close. Mississippi ranks No. 1 in the SEC and 13th nationally in rushing. Rebels freshman QB John Rhys Plumlee is a dual threat. He leads the team in rushing. LSU QB Joe Burrow can't produce points if his offense is on the bench watching Mississippi control clock with its ground attack.
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11-16-19 | Navy v. Notre Dame -7 | Top | 20-52 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
I'm going to fade the line movement. The marketplace is overthinking this matchup by their heavy play on Navy. Notre Dame has won 16 in a row at home. The Irish have played a tougher schedule than Navy and beat them, 44-22, last season as 21 1/2-point favorites at a neutral site. This is the last ranked regular season opponent Notre Dame faces. So the Irish won't lack motivation. Navy actually has a bigger game on deck with a first-place showdown in the American Athletic Conference West Division playing at home against SMU.
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11-15-19 | Gonzaga -6 v. Texas A&M | Top | 79-49 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
Guess what? Gonzaga is going to be good again this season - real good. The Bulldogs are ranked seventh in the KenPom rankings and that high rating is totally justified. The Zags have reloaded. They are strong at every position with excellent depth. Each of their three games has been a blowout victory. The Bulldogs rank third in the nation in scoring per 100 possessions and also are No. 2 in field goal percentage. They are undoubtedly a top-five offense. Texas A&M has tuned-up well for Gonzaga meeting two weak foes, Northwestern State and Louisiana Monroe. The Aggies didn't come close to covering big spreads against those foes. Texas A&M ranks 66th in KenPom's rankings. The Bulldogs buried the Aggies, 94-71, last season and hold a huge talent edge again this season.
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11-15-19 | Spurs +3.5 v. Magic | Top | 109-111 | Win | 100 | 16 h 60 m | Show |
The Spurs are in a rough patch right now with three straight losses, including a 129-114 road loss to the Timberwolves in their last game this past Wednesday. However, the Spurs still are superior to the Magic. The situation sets up for the Spurs here and there is splendid line value, too. The Timberwolves played great in beating San Antonio. It happens. Teams run into a hot-shooting foe who comes in with their "A" game. Minnesota is a very improved team, too. The Spurs are not the dominant serious title contender of years past. But they remain a quality team with the best coach in the league, Gregg Popovich. The Magic are getting respect from the oddsmaker based on their last game, which was a smashing, 112-97, home victory versus the 76ers. Note, though, the 76ers were playing their second road game in 48 hours and sat out Joel Embiid. The Magic had been idle the previous two days so the situation set up great for them. This game isn't an ideal spot for the Magic. The Spurs are in full stop-the-pain mode. Even with their high scoring effort against the 76ers, the Magic still rank last in scoring and second-to-last in field goal percentage.
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11-14-19 | Mavs -7 v. Knicks | 103-106 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
I want the Mavericks going for me in this rapid revenge spot. The Knicks stunned the Mavericks this past Friday upsetting Dallas, 106-102, as 11-point road underdogs. The Knicks made a stunning 14 of 28 shots from 3-point range. New York ranks last in the league in field goal percentage and second-to-last in scoring. So that truly was a fluke shooting performance. Since that victory, the Knicks have lost to the Bulls and Cavaliers by an average of 19.5 points. New York is 2-9 on the season. The Mavericks last played on Monday, losing, 116-106, to the sizzling Celtics. Dallas is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 road games.
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11-13-19 | Wizards +9 v. Celtics | Top | 133-140 | Win | 100 | 17 h 34 m | Show |
Washington is a lottery team. But that doesn't mean the Wizards lack talent. They are more than just the Bradley Beal show with promising youngsters Rui Hachimura, Thomas Bryant and Davis Bertans. The Wizards have a winning spread mark and are in an excellent situational spot here. Washington last played on Friday. The Wizards should be rested and motivated after being embarrassed at home by the Cavaliers in a 113-100 loss this past Friday. The Celtics are without Gordon Hayward, who suffered a broken hand during the weekend. Hayward was playing at an All-Star level. Boston managed to defeat the Mavericks, 116-106, on Monday without Hayward. This will be the Celtics' second game without Hayward so their motivation may not be as high. Focus could be an issue, too, for Boston. The Celtics take off for a five-game West Coast swing following this matchup. Boston takes on Golden State Friday on national TV. The Celtics' depth, lessened with Hayward's injury, will be tested since this is Boston's fourth game in seven days. The Celtics haven't been good at home either from a point spread perspective going 4-11-1 ATS the past 16 times. |
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11-12-19 | Miami-FL -1 v. UCF | 79-70 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show | |
Sharp money has come on Miami and I agree. The Hurricanes should be ready for their first road game having already faced Louisville. The Hurricanes have the talent and ballhandlers to limit their mistakes. Central Florida was very good - last season. The Knights lost most of their team from a year ago retaining just three players. They didn't look good in their opening game, a 73-69 victory against Prairie View. The Knights didn't come close to covering as 16 1/2-point home favorites. Miami is catching Central Florida at a good time, very early in the season.
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11-11-19 | Seahawks +6 v. 49ers | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 174 h 14 m | Show |
Russell Wilson is the best QB in the NFL right now. I want Wilson going for me with this many points on the Monday Night Football center stage. Seattle has covered the last eight times it has been an underdog, including both times this season. The 49ers are the most improved team in the league. But now they have the bullseye and pressure on them to only win, but cover margins, too. They lack Seattle's prime time big-game experience and record. The Seahawks are well-balanced with a respectable ground attack and now three dangerous wide receiving targets for Wilson with Josh Gordon joining Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. San Francisco suffered an unsung defensive injury with linebacker Kwon Alexander out for the year with a torn pec muscle. Alexander was the 49ers' second-leading tackler. The 49ers also have been missing their starting offensive tackles and star tight end George Kittle is doubtful. Seattle has dominated this series winning 10 of the past 11 meetings going 7-3-1 ATS. |
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11-10-19 | Flyers v. Bruins -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
This sets up as a kill spot for the Bruins. The oddsmaker knows this, too, hence the high lay price. I'm not going to lay that big of a price. So I'll get involved with the Bruins on the puck line taking a plus price in the belief they will win by more than one goal. The Bruins are in rare stop-the-pain mode after losing a tough 5-4 road game to the Canadiens this past Tuesday and then suffering a shocking, 4-2, loss to the Red Wings on Friday. Now the Bruins are home where they are unbeaten with all of their home victories coming by multiple goals. The Flyers are playing well, but are in a letdown spot after nipping the Maple Leafs, 3-2, in a shootout Saturday. Bruins are the better team and are in the better spot. Lay it!
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11-10-19 | Chiefs v. Titans +6.5 | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 20 h 40 m | Show | |
I'm taking the underdog Titans fully expecting Patrick Mahomes to play. If Mahomes doesn't, or is limited from his knee injury after being out just two weeks, so much for the better but I'm not counting on that. Instead I'm backing the Titans based on their merit, style of play and situation. The Titans are solid defensively. They've given up the sixth-fewest points per game in the NFL. Kansas City doesn't have an outstanding offensive line. Andy Reid is going to have to be more conservative in Mahomes' first game back from injury. This is a huge game for the Titans. They are two games behind in the AFC South Division and have a bye next week. Ryan Tannehill has been an upgrade on Marcus Mariota. The key, though, is the running of Derrick Henry. He's a powerful inside runner, who has a history of playing his best during November and December. The Chiefs rank 29th versus the run, surrendering 180 or more rushing yards four times this year. The Titans can maintain ball-control because of Henry keeping the Chiefs' high-octane offense off the field.
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11-10-19 | Falcons +14.5 v. Saints | 26-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show | |
The Saints are 7-1 fat and happy. The Falcons are 1-7 despondent and desperate. It's a division rivalry. The Falcons are off a bye and have Matt Ryan back. That's enough to get me involved taking two touchdowns. Atlanta actually averages more yards per game than New Orleans. Thanks to Ryan, who is having an excellent season, the Falcons lead the NFL in passing. Ryan has dangerous weapons with Julio Jones - who is in the argument for best wideout in the league - Calvin Ridley, Devonta Freeman and tight end Austin Hopper. Only once this season have the Saints won by more than 11 points. This should be a shooout and the Falcons have backdoor capabilities.
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11-09-19 | Idaho +12.5 v. UC Riverside | 51-58 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show | |
I'm expecting a letdown from Cal-Riverside. The Highlanders opened their season with a stunning 66-47 road win against Nebraska. Riverside was 15 1/2-point underdogs. In hindsight, though, the inexperienced Cornhuskers should not have been such a heavy favorite. I don't believe Riverside is that good. The Highlanders were 3-10 in non-league play last season with a point differential of minus 7.8 points. The Vandals have covered five of their last six games going back to last season. The Highlanders are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
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11-09-19 | Iowa v. Wisconsin -9 | 22-24 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 9 m | Show | |
Wisconsin wasn't as good as advertised when it steamrolled its first six opponents by an average of 38 points. But the Badgers aren't as bad as they looked in a 38-7 loss to Ohio State two weeks ago and in letting themselves get upset by Illinois before that game in an obvious look-ahead spot to Ohio State. The Badgers had a much needed bye last week. I see a regrouped Badgers squad taking care of Iowa at home. Wisconsin is 16-5 ATS following a bye. Both teams are tough defensively. The difference is Wisconsin has a stud RB in Jonathan Taylor, who I consider the best RB in the country. Iowa ranks 94th in scoring offense averaging only 24.4 points a game. The Hawkeyes could be minus star offensive lineman Alaric Jackson, too. Wisconsin has won the last three in the series.
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11-09-19 | Stanford -3 v. Colorado | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 22 m | Show | |
Stanford is a much better team now that QB K.J. Costello is back from a thumb injury. The Cardinal have a balanced attack with Costello, who has the skill set to find his second and third targets. Stanford also is in the hunt to become bowl eligible for the 11th consecutive season. The Cardinal can't afford to slip here. I don't they will given Colorado's woes. The Buffaloes entered the season with a great deal of optimism under first-year coach Mel Tucker. That's gone now. The Buffaloes have underachieved offensively scoring 14 or fewer points in three of their last four games and their defense has falled apart due to attriution and injuries. Colorado ranks second-to-last in the Pac-12 in scoring defense allowing 34.4 points.
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11-09-19 | East Carolina v. SMU -21 | 51-59 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 14 m | Show | |
Kill spot for SMU here off a six-point road loss to Memphis. This is the Mustangs' homecoming game and they need a victory to stay in the AAC hunt. East Carolina is a patsy. The Pirates' lone victories were against Gardner-Webb, Old Dominion and William & Mary. The Pirates played extremely hard against Cincinnati last week nearly pulling off an upset before losing, 46-43, as 25-point home 'dogs. That loss eliminated East Carolina from any hope of earning a bowl bid. The Pirates are likely to be deflated and don't have the offense, averaging fewer than 24 points a game, to keep pace with the Mustangs.
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11-08-19 | Illinois -7 v. Grand Canyon | 83-71 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show | |
There is a huge talent gap between these two schools. Maybe the oddsmaker was swayed by Illinois having to go into overtime to dispatch Nicholls State, a 22 1/2-point 'dog, in its opener. Because this line is way short especially given the circumstances at Grand Canyon. The Antelopes lost, 82-73, at home to Division II opponent Davenport in their opener. Grand Canyon received bad news before that game that two of its best players, forward Oscar Frayer and guard Jaylen Fisher, would not be eligible until second semster because of academic troubles. This has really reduced Grand Canyon's depth as Antelopes coach Dan Majerle used just a seven-man rotation. Illinois shouldn't be nearly as tight at it was in its opener. The Illini have a strong guard tandem in Andres Feliz and Ayo Dosunmu and also a pair of promising big men in 6-foot-9 Giorgi Bezhanishvili and 7-footer Kofi Cockburn.
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11-07-19 | Thunder v. Spurs -4.5 | 112-121 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show | |
Even when they had Russell Westbrook and Paul George, the Thunder still couldn't cover when playing in San Antonio. The Spurs have covered the past five times hosting Oklahoma City. I like the Spurs here to make it six straight home covers. Oklahoma City is coming off a 102-94 home win against Orlando on Tuesday. The Magic are the lowest-scoring team in the NBA and they got cold down the stretch against the Thunder. Now the Thunder draw a different foe in a different setting both of which are much more difficult. The Spurs are trying to avoid a three-game losing streak having lost, 103-96, at home to the Lakers and 108-100 to the Hawks on the road on Tuesday. The Thunder has played only two road games the last occurring back on Oct. 28. Oklahoma City is 0-2 away from home with a five-point loss to the Jazz and four-point defeat to the Rockets.
San Antonio is the superior team, home and in a better situation trying to halt a mini-losing streak before it gets out of hand. |
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11-06-19 | Bucks +1 v. Clippers | 129-124 | Win | 100 | 21 h 54 m | Show | |
I don't know if this line will hold in the morning when bookmakers realize the Clippers are resting Kawhi Leonard. I believe the Bucks are the best team in the NBA. The Clippers don't have Paul George yet and with Leonard sitting out they are not as good as Milwaukee. So I will lock into the Bucks now. Leonard was leading the Clippers in scoring, rebounding, assists and steals. Sparked by superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks were leading the NBA in scoring at 121.3 points per game.
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11-06-19 | Belmont v. Illinois State +6.5 | Top | 72-79 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
Belmont is coming off an outstanding season. But the Bruins could struggle in this opener. They are a team in transition right now playing with a new coach following the retirement of Rick Byrd and losing their two leading scorers from last season, Dylan Windler and Kevin McClain. Windler averaged 21.3 points and 10.8 rebounds. The Bruins draw Illinois State, a middle-of-the-road Missouri Valley Conference team. MVC schools are known for defense and slow tempos. Illinois State is no exception. I can see the Redbirds frustrating the Bruins at home and getting the cover if not pulling off the outright upset.
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11-05-19 | Magic +2.5 v. Thunder | 94-102 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
It's easy to be down on Orlando. The Magic are the only NBA team yet to reach triple digits. They rank last in scoring and field goal percentage. Behind that headline, though, are the Magic ranking No. 2 defensively in the league holding foes to 98.2 points per game. Oklahoma City is way down from last season. Chris Paul is the Thunder's lone star and he's off to a slow start. The Thunder also could be without their best big man as center Steven Adams has missed the last two games with a knee injury. The Magic are way overdue to have a good shooting game. They have a decent perimeter shootier in Evan Fournier to go with strong inside players Aaron Gordon and All-Star Nikola Vucevic. Orlando has covered in six of its last seven trips to Oklahoma City.
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11-04-19 | Rockets -5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 107-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
A 13-point road loss to the Nets this past Friday followed by a humilitating 129-100 defeat to the Heat on Sunday. Now do the Rockets lose for a third straight time? No. I'm getting behind the Rockets in stop-the-pain mode. I understand the Rockets are not in sync and their defense is horrible. But this game sets up well for Houston. The Grizzlies are among the worst teams in the NBA. They are in serious rebuild and won't be seeing positive signs for a while fielding an extremely young lineup with a new coach. Memphis also isn't likely to have their most promising big man, Jaren Jackson Jr. He's questionable with a sore knee. James Harden and Russell Westbrook each played less than half of the game in the blowout loss to the Heat. The prideful superstars should be in line for huge performances as Memphis is really struggling, too, defensively. The Rockets have covered five of the last six in the series.
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11-03-19 | Patriots -3 v. Ravens | 20-37 | Loss | -103 | 54 h 28 m | Show | |
Don't overthink this. Just ride New England until proven otherwise. The Patriots have covered 71 percent of their last 65 games! Bill Belichick should enter the Hall of Fame just on that number alone. A lot is being made of the Patriots going up against the most dangerous dual-threat QB in the NFL in second-year man Lamar Jackson. Turn it around, though. Jackson is going up against a Patriots defense that could be Belichick's all-time best. The Patriots are surrendering an NFL-low 7.6 points per game. They rank No. 2 in totals yards and passing yards. New England has intercepted at least one pass in each game and rank first in interceptions and sacks. Oh, yes, the Patriots have won the last 21 times they've gone against a first or second-year QB. John Harbaugh has been tough following a bye. The Ravens, however, haven't been a strong home team failing to cover in their past six home contests.
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11-03-19 | Bucs +6 v. Seahawks | 34-40 | Push | 0 | 50 h 15 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay can pass the ball effectively and stop the run. Those are two key components when taking on the Seahawks. Seattle is heavily run-oriented. The Buccaneers give up just 68.6 yards rushing, best in the NFL. Tampa Bay's pass rush is upgraded, too, with the return of Jason Pierre-Paul. He'll team up with NFC sacks leader Shaq Barrett. Jameis Winston has strong receiving weapons. Seattle ranks 27th in pass defense and has injuries with safeties Tedric Thompson and newly acquired Quandre Diggs out. The Seahawks have only three sacks in their past four games. The Buccaneers have proven dangerous as road 'dogs already knocking off the Panthers and Rams. Seattle has failed to cover the past four times it has been a home favorite, including nearly losing to the Bengals and falling by 14 points to the Ravens two games ago.
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11-03-19 | Redskins v. Bills -9 | Top | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 48 h 4 m | Show |
The Redskins are averaging 8.5 points in their last six games. They may get shut out by a strong and angry Bills defense that is coming off an embarrassing, 31-13, home loss to the Eagles last Sunday. Before that game, the Bills had held five of their first six foes to 17 points or fewer. I see Buffalo's defense rebounding in big fashion against rookie QB Dwayne Haskins, who is in line to make his first NFL start. Jay Gruden was right about Haskins in that the first-year QB isn't nearly ready. Haskins has a 34.5 passer rating with four interceptions in two cameo appearances. The Bills should stack the line to stop ancient Adrian Peterson forcing Haskins to make plays, which I don't see him doing. The Bills are very alive to come up with a pick-six or two. The Bills don't have a good offense. But Josh Allen can make plays with his feet and Buffalo should be operating from outstanding field position. The Bills do own two double-digit victories this season.
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11-03-19 | Jets -3 v. Dolphins | 18-26 | Loss | -119 | 48 h 34 m | Show | |
The Jets have looked bad lately facing two strong defenses, New England and Jacksonville. Now, though, the Jets are stepping all the way down in class. The Dolphins have the worst personnel in the NFL and they just lost one of their few good players in Pro Bowl cornerback Xavien Howard. The Jets have far more talent than the Dolphins. If there is one team Jets coach Adam Gase does not want to lose to it's his former team the Dolphins. Gase should know the Dolphins - or what is left of them - well having been Miami's head coach the previous three seasons. Miami is home, but on a short week having exerted a mental and physical effort in a Monday night road loss to the Steelers. All of Miami's losses, except the one to the Redskins, have been by double-digits.
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11-02-19 | Calgary -7 v. BC | 21-16 | Loss | -115 | 92 h 27 m | Show | |
Calgary is going for playoff seeding needing this game. BC is playing the string out. The Lions were on a four-game winning streak showing after losing seven in a row. But they are back to their losing ways scoring a combined 25 points in their last two games, losses to Edmonton and Saskatchewan. The Lions were without their quarterback, Mike Reilly, in both of those defeats. Reilly is out for the season with a wrist injury. BC's offense isn't nearly as good without him. BC has failed to step up in class all season losing 12 of 13 games versus playoff-bound teams going 3-9-1 ATS in those contests. Calgary is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six visits to British Columbia.
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11-02-19 | UAB +12.5 v. Tennessee | 7-30 | Loss | -109 | 43 h 24 m | Show | |
Look I get that Alabama Birmingham's 6-1 record is deceiving being littered by beating patsies. But I don't think Tennessee is that good with its three-headed QB monster running an offense that ranks 103rd in yards. The Blazers defense is impressive regardless ranking No. 8 in run defense and 11th in points allowed at just 15.7 per game. None of the Blazers' opponents have scored more than 20 points on them. UAB has a balanced attack. QB Tyler Johston III has thrown for 260 or more yards in five of the Blazers' last six games. Tennessee is in a letdown spot after its big win against South Carolina last week. The Volunteers don't have a good track record at home failing to cover in 15 of their last 21 home games. UAB has been a strong money-maker going 25-10-1 ATS in its last 36 games.
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11-02-19 | Kansas State v. Kansas +6.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -115 | 55 h 55 m | Show |
Kansas is one of the most improved teams in the nation under Les Miles. The Jayhawks have posted upsets of Boston College and Texas Tech while nearly knocking off Texas losing at the gun. The Jayhawks' offense has picked up under offensive coordinator Brent Dearmon with Carter Stanley one of the more underrated QB's in the country. Kansas is ready to spring another upset, this time against arch-rival Kansas State. The Wildcats have dominated this series winning the last 10 times. The Jayhawks hung tough against the Wildcats last season on the road, losing 21-17. Now the Jayhawks are home, vastly improved, riding some confidence and catch the Wildcats in a letdown spot. Kansas State just pulled off a monster upset of Oklahoma last Saturday as a 23 1/2-point home 'dog. This is the Wildcats' first road game in four weeks and only their third road game of the season.
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11-01-19 | Bucks -4.5 v. Magic | Top | 123-91 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
Both Milwaukee and Orlando are 2-2. But that's where the similarity ends. The Bucks were the best team in the NBA during the regular season last year - and they could be even better this season. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a favorite to win MVP honors. The Bucks have drawn three tough opponents during their first four games - Rockets, Heat and Celtics. The Magic are a borderline playoff team. Orlando has faced three easy opponents in its first four games - Cavaliers, Hawks and Knicks. Yet, the Magic are last in the league in scoring at 95.8 points per game. That's 24 fewer points per game than what the Bucks average. Milwaukee is off a road loss to the Celtics. The Bucks are 22-7 ATS following a defeat. This spread is too low given the quality of the two teams and the Bucks being in bounce-back mode.
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10-31-19 | Canadiens v. Golden Knights -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
Kill spot here for the Golden Knights. The oddsmaker knows this, too, that's why the money line is so high. I don't lay prices that high, but will gladly take a plus price on the puck line laying 1 1/2 goals. The Golden Knights buried the Ducks, 5-2, in their last game. That was back on Sunday so Las Vegas will be well rested. Not so for Montreal. The Canadiens just beat Arizona, 4-1, last night with Carey Price in net. So the Canadiens either will start backup goalie Keith Kincaid, or a tired Price. The Golden Knights are the much superior team and this is a favorable spot for them.
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10-31-19 | West Virginia v. Baylor -17.5 | Top | 14-17 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
This matchup sets up well for Baylor coming off a bye. Baylor is very solid on both sides of the ball and is running hot with seven straight wins. West Virginia is at low ebb losing three in a row, being outscored in those games, 132-59, by Texas, Iowa State and Oklahoma State. Those are all good Big 12 teams. But so is unbeaten 11th-ranked Baylor. The Bears have the third-best scoring offense in the Big 12. The Bears have depth at running back, a receiving threat in Denzel Mims and dual threat quarterback Charlie Brewer knows how to take care of the ball. If you discount the Texas Tech game, Brewer hasn't thrown an interception all season. Brewer will be operating against a depleted West Virginia defense that gives up the most points in the Big 12 and just lost linebacker Josh Chandler to a knee injury.
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10-30-19 | Pistons +9 v. Raptors | Top | 113-125 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
Games against Toronto always hold extra meaning now for Detroit. That's become they come against Pistons coach Dwane Casey's former team. Casey knows the Raptors and their personnel well having been their head coach for seven seasons until two years ago. The Pistons went 3-0 versus the Raptors last season and they should be up for this one, too. Detroit has covered in six of its last eight visits to Toronto. This is the Raptors' fourth game in six days. Toronto's next game is much bigger - at the Bucks. Blake Griffin isn't back for Detroit yet. But the Pistons have been getting solid play from Christian Wood. He looked good during preseason and that has carried into the season.
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10-28-19 | Cavs v. Bucks -15 | Top | 112-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
The Bucks are in the mood for a blowout after kicking away a 21-point lead at home in a 131-126 overtime loss to the Heat on Saturday. Giannis Antetokounmpo is off to a fast start. The Cavaliers are one of the worst defensive teams in the league and have inexperienced guards. Cleveland, though, is coming off an emotional 110-99 home victory against Indiana on Saturday. The Cavaliers played extremely well in that contest in giving coach Jim Beilein his first pro victory. I don't think the youthful Cavaliers have the maturity to stay close to maybe the best team in the NBA while taking to the road. The Bucks are 21-7 ATS following a defeat. The Bucks are 8-2-1 ATS the past 11 times laying double-digits. They beat the Cavaliers twice at home last season with the average winning margin being 19 points. |
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10-27-19 | Packers v. Chiefs +4.5 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 14 m | Show |
OK, Patrick Mahomes isn't going to play. But the Chiefs are far from dead without Mahomes especially as a home 'dog in this price range. We can all agree Arrowhead Stadium is one of the tougher road venues. There should be unanimous agreement, too, that Andy Reid is an elite coach dangerous with extra prep time, which the Chiefs have from playing last Thursday. Veteran Matt Moore is one of the better backups in the league. I respect Moore because he throws downfield where many backups don't have the skill set to do anything except game manage and checkdown. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill provide Moore with a top-two tight end and perhaps the premier deep threat in the league. This is just Green Bay's second road game in seven weeks. Aaron Rodgers has a career losing road record and isn't expected to have his top wide receiver, injured Davonte Adams.
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10-27-19 | Ducks v. Golden Knights -1.5 | 2-5 | Win | 125 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
I want the Golden Knights going for me here so I'll laying 1 1/2 goals on the puck line to reduce the heavy juice as the oddsmaker obviously believes the Golden Knights are the right side, too. Las Vegas was embarrassed at home on Friday by Colorado, 6-1. Afterward, Golden Knights coach Gerard Gallant ripped his team. Now Las Vegas is back at T-Mobile Arena and should be primed for a huge effort. The timing is good, too. Las Vegas draws Anaheim. The Ducks are coming a big road win against the Avalanche, 5-2, last night. This marks the Ducks' third road game in four days. Their 28th-ranked offense can't stay with the Golden Knights.
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10-27-19 | Heat v. Wolves -6.5 | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
Great play from center Karl-Anthony Towns. The continuity of fielding the same lineup from last season. A good vibe under 33-year-old head coach Ryan Saunders, son of the late coach Flip Saunders. These are all factors why the Timberwolves are off to a 2-0 start. I expect Minnesota to move that record to 3-0 today as they are not only playing well but in a great situational spot. Minnesota draws Miami at home after the Heat just upset the Bucks, 131-126 in overtime, at Milwaukee on Saturday. The Heat accomplished this without Jimmy Butler, who won't play today either. Obviously this is a monster letdown spot for the Heat.
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10-27-19 | Broncos v. Colts -4 | Top | 13-15 | Loss | -115 | 38 h 25 m | Show |
If the Broncos thought they could make a successful run with Joe Flacco at quarterback they were sadly delusional. It took a 30-6 home loss to the Chiefs last Thursday to figure that out. Now, at 2-5, the Broncos know they are dead. Only seven teams during the last 40 years have made the postseason after opening 2-5. Emmmanuel Sanders, Denver's best wideout, got traded. Others are likely to follow before Tuesday's trade deadline concludes. Unless Dwayne Haskins becomes the Redskins new first-stringer, Flacco is the worst starting QB in the NFL. And Garett Bolles may be the worst offensive left tackle in the league. It's a lethal combination that sinks the Broncos' popgun offense that has failed to break 16 points in five of their seven games. The Broncos' defense is good, but not great. Certainly it's not nearly strong enough to carry such a putrid offense. The Colts have proven time after time under Frank Reich that they are legitimate. Indy's defense has back it's best playmaker, linebacker Darius Leonard, and top defensive back in free safety Malik Hooker. The Colts are balanced on offense with Jacoby Brissett coming off a confidence-building four-touchdown performance in a 30-23 home win against Houston last Sunday. When you factor in home field advantage and the Colts being without a major weakness, this line comes up short.
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10-27-19 | Eagles +2.5 v. Bills | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 37 h 45 m | Show | |
The records show 5-1 and 3-4. But it's the Bills who are the 5-1 team. Buffalo has a very solid defense. The Bills' offense scares no one, though. Buffalo has built its record by beating the Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans and Dolphins. Combined record of those teams is 6-27. None of those foes is above .500. The Eagles opened 3-2 before losing consecutive road games to the Vikings and Cowboys. Philly was outmatched in those games. The Eagles won't be here. They also won't lack motivation after a humiliating national TV loss to the Cowboys unlike the Bills, who are fat and happy. Buffalo is heavily run-oriented. Bills second-year QB Josh Allen is turnover-prone. The Eagles have gotten healthier in the secondary and rank seventh in rush defense. They've been tough on every running back except superstar Ezekiel Elliott.
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