02-06-24 |
Bucks +4 v. Suns |
|
106-114 |
Loss |
-115 |
12 h 8 m |
Show
|
Milwaukee is concluding its five-game road trip here. The Bucks are 1-3 on their road swing. This is a good time to buy low on the Bucks coming off a 123-108 Sunday loss to the Jazz.
The Bucks had wide open shots in that loss to Utah. But they blew a 19-point lead, collapsing in the fourth quarter. The high mountain altitude in Utah might have had something to do with that.
Milwaukee is the second-highest scoring team in the NBA and fourth-best shooting team. The Bucks should fare much better with a full day rest and getting out of the mountain air. Phoenix is just an average defensive team.
The Bucks have won the past three times they've faced the Suns in the regular season. Milwaukee also draws Phoenix with the Suns in a vulnerable spot.
The Suns concluded a seven-game, 12-day road trip this past Sunday blowing out Washington. That was a huge, motivational game for the Suns because of Bradley Beal's return to face his former Wizards team.
Now the Suns are playing at home for the first time since Jan. 22. Before they had embarked on their seven-game road trip, their longest road swing had been three away games in a row. The Suns did that three times. Phoenix failed to cover in their first home game back during each of those three road games in a row going 0-3 ATS. Look for that pattern to continue here.
|
02-06-24 |
Oklahoma State v. Houston -20 |
Top |
63-79 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 3 m |
Show
|
I want Houston going for me at home after it was smashed, 78-65, by Kansas on the road this past Saturday. That was the Cougars' worst regular-season defeat in two years.
Even giving up 78 points in that game, the Cougars still rank first in the country in fewest points allowed per game at 54 and in defensive efficiency. Oklahoma State is the worst team in the Big 12 Conference. The Cowboys only average 71.1 points, which ranks 259th. They also rank 314th in free throw percentage.
The Cowboys are actually a little fat and happy, though, after upsetting Kansas State at home this past Saturday. That was just their second win in their past nine games.
Texas has a strong record as a big favorite covering 62 percent of the past 104 times when they've been chalk of more than 10 points.
|
02-05-24 |
Kansas v. Kansas State +4.5 |
|
70-75 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 27 m |
Show
|
Fresh off a 78-65 home victory against fourth-ranked Houston, Kansas is looking good. But now the Jayhawks find themselves in a difficult scheduling spot. They have to travel to Kansas State for this in-state, Big 12 Conference rivalry matchup.
Kansas State is at low ebb with four consecutive losses. The Wildcats, though, have played tough competition during this span - road games against Iowa State and Houston and home games vs Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Kansas State is capable of winning outright. The Wildcats bet LSU and Baylor while losing to Texas Tech on the road by one point.
The Wildcats are 10-2 at home. This is their biggest home game of the season - their Super Bowl.
"The atmosphere we'll play in on Monday will be very comparable to the atmosphere Houston played in today," Kansas coach Bill Self was quoted as saying on Saturday following the Jayhawks' upset win against the Cougars. "We'll have to go over there and play well ..."
|
02-05-24 |
Raptors +11.5 v. Pelicans |
|
100-138 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 49 m |
Show
|
Toronto is 2-11 in its last 13 games, 1-7 in its last eight games and playing its fifth straight road game. But on closer inspection, I find the Raptors to be a good value play here.
Toronto hasn't been healthy. Now the Raptors are after getting back RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl and Immanuel Quickley. They all played in the Raptors' last game two days ago. That was against Oklahoma City. The Raptors were 8 1/2-point underdogs. Toronto took the Thunder to double overtime before losing but covering.
The Raptors have had a day to rest and recuperate. They haven't played in back-to-back games since Jan. 17-18. So the fatigue factor isn't that bad. New Orleans is laying double-digits despite being in an awkward scheduling spot. This is the Pelicans' sixth game in 11 days. They just concluded a four-game road trip with a one-point victory against the 10-40 Spurs this past Friday. The Pelicans pulled that game out when Zion Williamson scored with 3.8 seconds left.
After this matchup, the Pelicans go back on the road for four more games. So their concentration level could be off.
|
02-04-24 |
Bucks v. Jazz +1.5 |
Top |
108-123 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 17 m |
Show
|
At first glance this opening line might look strange with the 33-16 Bucks around a pick'em against the 24-26 Jazz. But the spot sets up extremely well for Utah. So I'm on the Jazz. The Bucks came back to beat Dallas on the road Saturday night. Milwaukee trailed by 25 points at one stage. The Bucks' three best players all logged heavy minutes in the victory. Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton each played more than 38 minutes. Giannis Antetokounmpo logged more than 40 minutes. It wouldn't be shocking if any of those three were rested today. I'm getting down now on the Jazz because the line would change if Antetokounmpo or Lillard sat out. Note, too, the Bucks are going into Utah's high altitude. Milwaukee also is in transition with new coach Doc Rivers. Beating Dallas was the Bucks' first win under Rivers this season. The Jazz are 15-7 at home - and rested. They last played this past Thursday. The Jazz lost to the 76ers, 127-124, in their last game. Philadelphia didn't have injured Joel Embiid. However, the Jazz had just returned from a six-game road trip and been idle for only one day before hosting the 76ers. Now they are rested and ready to go with a strong home court.
|
02-04-24 |
Magic v. Pistons +7 |
|
111-99 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 48 m |
Show
|
I know it's difficult to get behind the Pistons. But they are in an excellent situational spot here.
Orlando is playing for the fifth time in eight days. It's the Magic's fourth consecutive road contest. They just rallied from 17 points down to upset the Timberwolves this past Friday. Orlando has a bigger matchup up next - on the road against in-state division rival Miami in a battle for first place in the Southeast Division. That game goes Tuesday.
The Pistons have revenge motivation for an embarrassing, 123-91, loss to the Magic on Dec. 8. Following this matchup, the Pistons go on the road for a five-game West Coast trip. They won't play at home again until Feb. 24.
So, yes, the spot is ripe for Detroit. But are the Pistons good enough to cover this number? They have been in their last three games. During this span, the Pistons upset the Thunder by 16 points as a 12-point home 'dog, lost by seven to the hot Cavaliers as a 13 1/2-point road 'dog and covered in their last game at home to the Clippers. Now the Pistons are dropping down in class after facing those three strong opponents.
|
02-03-24 |
St. Mary's +4.5 v. Gonzaga |
|
64-62 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 8 m |
Show
|
I'm not convinced Gonzaga is better than Saint Mary's so I'm taking these many points. The Bulldogs have fewer wins than Saint Mary's and have battled inconsistency. Saint Mary's is in top form winning 14 of its last 15 games, including nine in a row.
Gonzaga is 0-4 against Quadrant 1 opponents. The Bulldogs are ranked 26th in the NCAA Net Rankings. The Gaels are ranked 21st in the NCAA Net Rankings.
The Gaels give up the third-fewest points in the country at 58.4. Their offense has picked up where they are averaging 78.8 points per game during their last six games.
|
02-03-24 |
Tennessee v. Kentucky +1.5 |
Top |
103-92 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 25 m |
Show
|
This is Kentucky's game to win and I see the Wildcats doing just that. Getting any points with the Wildcats is just a bonus.
Kentucky defeated Tennessee in both meetings last season. Kentucky won those games by a combined 19 points. The Wildcats close their regular season at Tennessee. So it is paramount they beat the Volunteers in Lexington, Ky.
Both teams got caught peeking ahead to this marquee matchup in their last game. Kentucky blew a four-point home lead with 20 seconds and lost in overtime to Florida this past Wednesday. That was just the Wildcats' second home loss in 12 home contests. Tennessee looked far worse, though. The Volunteers lost, 63-59, to South Carolina as a 14-point home favorite this past Tuesday. Tennessee is going to have to play far, far better than that to stay competitive against the Wildcats.
The Wildcats own the deeper bench and have a highly-underrated shooting guard in Antonio Reeves. Not only is he an elite defensive player, but he's scored 19 or more points in eight of the last 10 games.
|
02-03-24 |
Weber State +2 v. Northern Colorado |
|
82-63 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 52 m |
Show
|
This is a power ratings play. These teams have similar records, but I have Weber State as the superior team. So I will back the underdog. Weber State ranks 65th in the nation defensively holding foes to 65.2 points per game. That's remarkable for a Big Sky Conference team. Northern Colorado has had some high-scoring games in its last few games, but the Bears have played weak competition during this span. They rank 326th defensively allowing 78.2 points per game.
|
02-03-24 |
Houston v. Kansas +1.5 |
|
65-78 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 55 m |
Show
|
Maybe it's a sucker's play. But I'm not going to turn down Kansas as a home underdog to Houston. The last time the Jayhawks were an underdog in Allen Fieldhouse was 2021 when they rolled past future national champion Baylor, 71-58.
Kansas is 11-0 at home this season. This includes a win and cover against third-ranked Connecticut.
Houston has the top defense in the country, but is 2-2 in its Big 12 road games, 1-3 ATS. One of those conference victories came in overtime against Texas this past Monday. The Cougars are 3-6 ATS in road/neutral site games.
Texas is a terrible free throw shooting team and scores five fewer points per game than Kansas.
|
02-03-24 |
The Citadel +7.5 v. East Tennessee State |
|
60-62 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 12 m |
Show
|
East Tennessee State has only been favored once in its last eight games. That was against VMI. The Buccaneers were 10 1/2-point chalk and ended up winning by one point.
The Buccaneers are a mediocre team with a 3-6 record in the Southern Conference. They are one of the worst perimeter shooting teams in the country.
I liked what The Citadel did in its last game. The Bulldogs nearly upset Furman, losing by three points in overtime as a 7-point 'dog.
|
02-02-24 |
Magic +8 v. Wolves |
Top |
108-106 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 36 m |
Show
|
Points are going to be hard to come by in this matchup between the Magic, who ranked fifth in the NBA defensively, and the Timberwolves, who give up the fewest points per game. That's why the oddsmaker has set a low total. So I find this to be a lot of points to get.
The Timberwolves are a bit fat and happy after a blowout victory against the Mavericks two days ago.
Orlando has the best point spread mark in the NBA at 31-17, which is 64.5 percent. The Magic have held two of their last three opponents to 98 points, the Spurs and Suns. That was 18 points below the Suns' season average.
|
02-02-24 |
Siena v. Rider -10.5 |
|
50-91 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 52 m |
Show
|
Siena is 3-17 and tied for last in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference with a 2-7 mark. However, one of the Saints' victories came against Rider.
Rider is having a disappointing season, but still is a much superior team to Siena. The Broncos have had this matchup circled since that, 67-65, early December road loss.
The Broncos are playing better. They are off consecutive road upset victories against St. Peter's and Mount St. Mary's. They held those two opponents to an average of 59.5 points.
Siena has dropped four in a row. The Saints have injuries and trouble scoring, averaging only 50.3 points in their last three games.
|
02-02-24 |
Quinnipiac -6.5 v. Manhattan |
|
77-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 20 m |
Show
|
Manhattan is one of the worst teams in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. The Jaspers don't have much of a home-court edge and are weak both offensively and defensively where they have permitted at least 81 points in three of their last four games.
Quinnipiac is the best team in the MAAC with an 8-1 league mark and 16-4 overall record. The Bobcats average more than 78 points a game and are the ninth-best free throw shooting team in the nation. Manhattan averaged 12 fewer points per game than the Bobcats.
Quinnipiac had no problem handling Manhattan at home on Jan. 7 winning, 76-59.
So I find this number short.
|
02-01-24 |
76ers +4.5 v. Jazz |
|
127-124 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 10 m |
Show
|
Let's get the bad out of the way first. No Joel Embiid and the 76ers are concluding a five-game road trip here. They have lost the first four games of their road swing. But things aren't good on the Utah side either. The Jazz are 2-5 in their past seven games with the only victories during this time frame coming against the Wizards and Hornets. Those two bottom feeders have a combined record of 19-74. The Jazz also are in a tough situational spot. This is their first home contest since Jan. 18. The Jazz just concluded six consecutive road games with losses to the Nets and Knicks this past Monday and Tuesday nights. Embiid may be out for a while. The 76ers need to prove they can win without him. They shouldn't lack motivation to salvage one game from their road trip. They also have revenge incentive for a 120-109 home loss to the Jazz on Jan. 6 when Embiid also was out. There's a good chance the 76ers get back underrated Tyrese Maxey, who has missed the last three games with an ankle injury, and versatile Nicolas Batum.
|
02-01-24 |
Appalachian State v. Georgia State +6 |
|
81-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 24 m |
Show
|
I'm going to buy low on Georgia State. The Panthers have lost four in a row to drop below .500 on the season. Those four defeats, though, all came on the road. Georgia State is 6-1 at home, including winning its last six home games.
The Panthers should really be motivated for this matchup against the top team in the Sun Belt. The Panthers also are off a frustrating overtime loss to Coastal Carolina in their last game.
The Mountaineers rank 26th in the country defensively. Georgia State, however, averages 78.9 points a game and is a very good free throw shooting team.
|
01-31-24 |
Mavs +14 v. Wolves |
Top |
87-121 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 41 m |
Show
|
I'm more interested in the Mavericks when they are underdogs - and they certainly are underdogs in this matchup judging by the lopsided point spread. It's way too many points for the Timberwolves to be laying. Dallas has ended its mini-slump winning two of its past three games, including nipping the Magic, 131-129, at home two days ago. Tim Hardaway Jr. has been picking up the slack for Kyrie Irving's absence. He had 36 points against Orlando. The Mavericks are 12-9 on the road. They have covered seven of the last 11 times when getting points. Dallas also defeated the Timberwolves, 115-108, in the last meeting on Jan. 7 at home. The Timberwolves are coming off a satisfying road win against the Thunder, in which Minnesota coach Chris Finch challenged his defense, but are just 3-3 in their last six games. It's not an ideal situational spot either for the Timberwolves being their first home game in nine days following four consecutive road games. Minnesota is 0-2 in its last two home contests losing to the Hornets and Thunder.
|
01-31-24 |
Furman v. The Citadel +7.5 |
|
82-79 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 9 m |
Show
|
Furman is a high-scoring team, but this is too many points for the Paladins to lay on the road.
The Paladins are 1-7 in their true road games this season and 2-7-1 ATS in road/neutral site games.
The Citadel gives up seven fewer points per game than Furman and is more accurate from the field and 3-point range than the Paladins.
|
01-30-24 |
San Diego State v. Colorado State -1.5 |
Top |
71-79 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 18 m |
Show
|
It's gut check time for Colorado State after consecutive road losses to Wyoming and Nevada. The Rams are in the NCAA Tournament hunt with a 15-5 record, but blew an 11-point lead with 1:11 left to fall to Wyoming in overtime this past Saturday in their last game.
The Rams are home now where they are 10-1, including 3-0 in Mountain West Conference games and with a victory against 19th-ranked New Mexico. San Diego State has been idle for a week. The Aztecs are 0-5-1 ATS in true road games and have been known to struggle when playing in high altitude venues, which Moby Arena is.
The Aztecs are 16-4, but have feasted on weak competition going 14-0 vs Quad 2 or lower opponents and 2-4 against Quad 1 foes. Colorado State is the seventh-best shooting team in the country. San Diego State is the second-worst shooting team in the Mountain West ahead of only Boise State. The Aztecs are the worst 3-point shooting team in the conference.
San Diego State could be rusty, too, having been idle for a week. The Aztecs have a bigger game up next when they host 17th-ranked and Mountain West leader Utah State.
|
01-30-24 |
Jazz +4 v. Knicks |
|
103-118 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 29 m |
Show
|
I tried to step in against the Knicks with the Hornets on Monday. It was a mistake. The Hornets are an immature, gutless team. The Jazz aren't. They are well-coached, have a deep rotation and are below-the-radar with a 10-5 record this month.
Both teams carry high fatigue ratings having been in action last night. Utah is finishing its six-game road trip with this game. New York is in action for the fourth time in six days.
The Knicks have won a season-high seven in a row. They were in a flat spot against the Hornets on the road after satisfying home victories against the Heat and Nuggets. The Hornets, though, were too pathetic to even hang close. Now the Knicks return to Madison Square Garden for this matchup. The Jazz actually had the shorter distance to travel having lost to the Nets in Brooklyn last night.
The Nets humiliated the Jazz, 147-114. That was Utah's second most lopsided loss of the season. I trust Will Hardy to have his Jazz motivated and ready to play much better against the Knicks, who played their first game of the season without Julius Randle last night. Randle is out with a dislocated right shoulder. New York center Mitchell Robinson is out for the season. Randle and Robinson are the Knicks' two top rebounders.
The Knicks also didn't have OG Anunoby against the Hornets. He sat out with elbow inflammation. Randle and Anunoby are New York's second and third-leading scorers. The Knicks are fat, happy and saddled with key injuries. That's a combination for a letdown.
|
01-29-24 |
Knicks v. Hornets +9 |
|
113-92 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 37 m |
Show
|
The Knicks have won a season-high six straight games. But don't be shocked if the Knicks stumble here against the lowly Hornets, a team they have easily beaten in all three meetings this season.
How come?
Several key factors. The Knicks are going to be without their star power forward Julius Randle for the first time this season. Randle suffered a dislocated right shoulder in New York's Saturday victory against the Heat. This is a huge concern for the Knicks and a big distraction. Remember, the Knicks also don't have center Mitchell Robinson. He's out for the season. Robinson and Randle are the Knicks' two leading rebounders.
Another important factor is the timing of this matchup. The Knicks are coming off satisfying home victories against the Heat and Nuggets. This is just their second road game in 15 days. The Knicks return home for five games in a row following this matchup starting on Tuesday with a revenge game against the Jazz. So it's a very weird scheduling spot for New York.
The Hornets upset the Timberwolves as a 14-point road 'dog last Monday. Charlotte won't lack motivation being home in a triple-revenge spot against an opponent that has other things on their mind and is in a letdown situation.
|
01-28-24 |
Raptors +6.5 v. Hawks |
|
125-126 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
Yes, the Raptors are going through a rocky stage now losing eight of their last nine games.
But Atlanta isn't playing well either having lost and failed to cover in its last four games. The Hawks are an auto-fade for me in this price range.
The Hawks have by far the worst point spread mark in the NBA at 11-34 for 24 percent. They are especially terrible in this role going 1-11 ATS when favored by more than one point.
The Raptors have enough offense to take advantage of the Hawks' porous defense, which ranks in the bottom-three in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defensive percentage.
|
01-27-24 |
76ers v. Nuggets -4.5 |
|
105-111 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 39 m |
Show
|
Denver is 5-2 in its last seven games. The Nuggets' losses during this span came to the Pacers this past Thursday on the final game of their five-game road trip and to the 76ers at the start of their road trip, which was 11 days ago.
The 76ers beat Denver, 126-121, in that game. Philadelphia hit 57 percent from the floor and 48 percent from 3-point range. The 76ers also shot nine more free throws than Denver. I don't see a repeat of that with the teams now meeting in Denver. This is rapid revenge for the prideful defending world champion Nuggets.
The Nuggets are 17-4 at home. The 76ers have failed to cover in four of their last five away games with straight-up losses to the Pacers, Hawks and Bulls during this time frame.
|
01-27-24 |
Colorado v. Washington State +1.5 |
Top |
69-78 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 31 m |
Show
|
It's easy to cite revenge for Washington State when going with the Cougars to beat Colorado at home in this matchup. The Buffaloes beat the Cougars, 74-67, in Boulder on Dec. 31.
But it's more than that. Washington State has come together a lot more since that defeat going 5-2 in their last seven games. The Cougars are strong at home and Colorado is coming off a road win against Washington this past Wednesday. I don't see the Buffaloes knocking off both Washington and Washington State on the road. Prior to defeating Washington, Colorado had played four true road games. The Buffaloes lost and failed to cover in each of those contests.
Washington State is 9-2 at home. The Cougars won and covered against Utah and Arizona during their last two home games.
The Cougars are a better defensive team than Colorado and can take advantage of the Buffaloes' weak 3-point defense.
|
01-26-24 |
Magic -5 v. Grizzlies |
|
106-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 46 m |
Show
|
The Magic are finally healthy with Franz Wagner back in the lineup. The Grizzlies are so decimated with injuries that Scotty Pippen Jr. is now a key member of their rotation.
The spot is ripe, too, for Orlando. The Magic are off an embarrassing 27-point home loss to the Cavaliers this past Monday. They came into the matchup having beat the Heat the night before. Now they've had three full days to rest and prepare for this matchup.
Memphis is in a rare flat spot returning home after posting upset road wins against the Raptors this past Monday and Heat two days ago. The Grizzlies are a putrid 4-15 at home and not much better point spread wise at 5-14 (26 percent) ATS.
|
01-26-24 |
Ohio v. Kent State -2.5 |
Top |
71-64 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 55 m |
Show
|
Kent State is far superior to Ohio in two key categories - 3-point shooting and free throw shooting. The Golden Flashes also are home for this Mid-American Conference matchup. That's a key, too. Ohio is 0-5 SU and ATS in its five true road games.
The Bobcats lost on the road this past Tuesday to Akron, 67-58, as an 8-point 'dog. The Bobcats remain a fade on the road until they prove they can cover a true away game.
Kent State has the better overall record, although both teams are 3-4 in the MAC. The Golden Flashes rank 54th in 3-point accuracy. Ohio is 199th in 3-point defense. Kent State also makes 76 percent of its free throws compared to Ohio, which ranks 221st in free throw percentage at 70.4 percent.
|
01-25-24 |
Mt. St. Mary's +4.5 v. Quinnipiac |
|
65-79 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 15 m |
Show
|
Mount St. Mary's beat Quinnipiac straight-up last season on the road as a bigger underdog than this. Quinnipiac is riding high on a five-game win streak after a home win against Iona.
But the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference is a competitive conference so I'm going to sell high on the Bobcats and take this many points with underdog Mount St. Mary's. The Mountaineers are respectable on defense and a good shooting team.
|
01-25-24 |
SMU v. North Texas +1.5 |
|
66-68 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 53 m |
Show
|
SMU plays outstanding defense. But North Texas plays even better defense. The Mean Green rank third in the nation defensively holding foes to 58.3 points a game.
North Texas also is 8-0 at home, covering all but one of its lined home games.
I see the Mean Green really being up for this matchup after their six-game win streak was snapped by Charlotte on the road this past Saturday.
North Texas had held its last four opponents below 60 points. I don't feel the Mean Green should be a home 'dog to SMU.
|
01-24-24 |
Hawks v. Warriors -7 |
Top |
112-134 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 3 m |
Show
|
A disappointing season turned tragic for Golden State when assistant coach Dejan Milojevic died of a heart attack last Wednesday. The Warriors haven't played since.
The Warriors will honor Milojevic, showing a video tribute of him before the game.
Look for the Warriors to treat this matchup as their Super Bowl. I'm expecting a highly-motivated home performance from Golden State in memory of Milojevic.
Golden State did hold a full practice on Tuesday. Draymond Green also has been getting better since coming back from suspension. This will be his first home game since his Dec. 14 suspension for striking Jusuf Nurkic in the face.
Then there is the opponent. It's Atlanta, which has the worst point spread mark in the NBA by far at 11-32 ATS (25.5 percent).
The Hawks also are going to be without their best player, Trae Young. He missed the Hawks' last game, a 122-107 road loss to the Kings this past Monday, because of a concussion.
While the Warriors should be full of energy, the Hawks are playing for the fourth time in six days. It's also their fourth straight different venue.
|
01-23-24 |
San Diego +3.5 v. Portland |
|
85-81 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 34 m |
Show
|
Portland is too weak defensively to lay this many points. San Diego is 0-5 in the West Coast Conference. But the Toreros are 10-10 overall. Their conference losses have been against the best teams in the league, Gonzaga twice, St. Mary's and San Francisco.
The Pilots played a very weak non-conference schedule and have one of the worst defenses in the country. They are giving up an average of 80.2 points on the season and 97.3 points during their last three games.
|
01-23-24 |
Houston v. BYU +2.5 |
Top |
75-68 |
Loss |
-107 |
8 h 31 m |
Show
|
Houston is finding out the hard way that winning on the road in the Big 12 Conference is tough. The Cougars are ranked fourth in the country, but they are 0-2 SU and ATS on the road in the Big 12 losing to Iowa State and TCU.
BYU has one of the best home-courts in the country. The Cougars slaughtered Iowa State, 87-72, at home a week ago. BYU lost at Texas Tech in its previous game this past Saturday after blowing a 16-point halftime lead. But at home, BYU is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS, outscoring foes by an average of nearly 30 points a game.
The Cougars are the 11th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 85.3 points. That's 11 points more per game than Houston averages. The Cougars also could be without J'Wan Roberts, a key defender and their leading rebounder.
|
01-22-24 |
Hawks v. Kings -8 |
|
107-122 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 11 m |
Show
|
Who's the most underachieving team in the NBA? If you go by point spread records it's the Hawks. Atlanta has covered only 26 percent of its games going 11-31 ATS.
The Hawks carry a high fatigue rating here and won't have their superstar, Trae Young. He's out with a concussion. This marks the Hawks' fourth game in six days and seventh game in 11 days.
Sacramento has lost four in a row with three coming on the road. Look at those games, though. The Kings were blown out by the 76ers at Philadelphia. But in their last three games, they lost by one point in overtime at the Bucks, fell on the road to the Suns by two points and then lost at home to the Pacers by five points. That was last Thursday.
So the Kings have ample rest and motivation. This is a great spot for them.
|
01-22-24 |
Cavs +1.5 v. Magic |
Top |
126-99 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 51 m |
Show
|
Cleveland is one of the hottest teams in the NBA riding a seven-game win streak. During this span, the Cavaliers have held their opponents to an average of 98.4 points. That figure would easily lead the NBA in defense if it were season-long. Orlando ranks 25th in scoring and has the second-worst 3-point shooting percentage.
The Magic got back Franz Wagner on Sunday. He scored 19 points in 28 minutes to help the Magic defeat the Heat in a Southeast Division showdown match between the first and second place teams in that division. Wagner had missed the previous eight games with an ankle injury. He's Orlando's second-leading scorer at 20.8 points. The Magic could choose to hold Wagner out of this matchup not wanting to risk him playing in a back-to-back situation so early in his recovery.
This also marks the Magic's seventh game in 11 days. Orlando is 2-5 in its last seven games even with the impressive victory against Miami.
The Cavaliers have defeated their last four opponents - Hawks, Bucks, Bulls and Nets - by an average of 22 points. It's not too much to ask them to just win against a tired, low-scoring Orlando team.
|
01-21-24 |
Blazers v. Lakers -11.5 |
|
110-134 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 9 m |
Show
|
The Lakers are good enough - and the Trail Blazers are bad enough - for an LA blowout win here. The spot sets up for the Lakers.
After LA's impressive home wins and covers against the Thunder and Mavericks, two teams far better than Portland, the Lakers fell apart in an embarrassing, 130-112, home loss to the Nets this past Friday.
The Lakers should be motivated to erase that frustration. They catch the Trail Blazers riding their first two-game win streak since late November. Portland nipped the Pacers and Nets at home by a combined five points. Those Portland victories are enough to catch the Lakers' attention.
I understand the Lakers have been inconsistent all season. But Portland has the fourth-worst record in the NBA at 12-29. The Trail Blazers are last in scoring and in shooting percentage. So the bar is not high for the Lakers to get a needed blowout win.
|
01-21-24 |
Oregon v. Utah -5 |
|
77-80 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 26 m |
Show
|
Oregon wasn't expected to win as a six-point road 'dog to Colorado this past Thursday. But the Ducks' 86-70 loss to the Buffaloes shows some red flags concerning the team when playing away from Eugene.
The Ducks are 4-4 in road/neutral site games. They looked dreadful against Colorado getting outrebounded by 12 and committing 13 turnovers. Now the Ducks have to go on to Utah where the Utes are 10-0 at home this season.
Among the teams Utah has defeated at home are BYU, Washington State, Washington and UCLA, 90-44, 10 days ago. UCLA played at Oregon on Dec. 30 and lost by five points, 64-59.
Utah buried Oregon State, 74-47, as a 15-point home favorite this past Thursday. The Utes did that without starting point guard Rollie Worster, who is questionable for this matchup with a leg injury. The Utes have another reliable point guard in Deivon Smith, whose statistics are similar to Worster's. So it's just a bonus if Worster is able to play.
|
01-20-24 |
Packers v. 49ers -9.5 |
Top |
21-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 31 m |
Show
|
Lost in the glare of the Packers' 48-32 smashing upset victory of the Cowboys last Sunday was that Green Bay's defense was on the field for 89 plays.
Now the Packers go back on the road for the fourth time in the last five weeks - and on a short week with this being a Saturday game - to face a rested and healthy 49ers offense that led the league in net yards per passing play, rushing touchdowns and had the best red-zone conversion rate. The 49ers produced the second-most yards in the league and third-most points.
I don't like Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry and I don't trust Green Bay's defense. The Packers gave up 30 points, 26 first downs and nearly 400 yards of offense to Carolina just four games ago. It's scary to think how many points Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk can put up against the Packers defense, which was 28th in stopping the run and hasn't been innovative all season. Star cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable, too, with an ankle injury.
It's easy to overrate the Packers. After all, they just were seen burying the Cowboys in a game that was far more lopsided than the final score while the 49ers haven't played a meaningful game in three weeks.
The 49ers are an elite, "A'' team. The Packers are two levels behind them and in a difficult situational spot. Green Bay has gone as far as it can go. Congrats to the Packers on a nice season, but it ends here and it ends in a big way.
|
01-20-24 |
Purdue v. Iowa +7 |
Top |
84-70 |
Loss |
-109 |
13 h 43 m |
Show
|
Iowa is much improved since an 87-68 road loss to Purdue back on Dec. 4. The Hawkeyes are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. They have won and covered three in a row beating Rutgers, Nebraska and Minnesota by an average of 12 points.
This is only Purdue's third true road game. The Boilermakers lost to Nebraska on the road, 88-72, three games ago. Iowa defeated Nebraska, 94-76, at home eight days ago.
Purdue is playing consecutive true road games for the first time this season. The Boilermakers are the 13th-highest scoring team in the nation. Iowa ranks fifth in scoring averaging two more points per game than Purdue at 87.1.
|
01-19-24 |
Wild v. Panthers -1.5 |
|
6-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 4 m |
Show
|
Florida is in second place in the Atlantic Division with 58 points. But the Panthers are in must-win mode having lost three in a row - two in overtime - and finishing a five-game homestand with this matchup.
Look for the Panthers to take their frustrations out on Minnesota, which is a patsy right now. Dealing with multiple injuries, the Wild has lost nine of their last 11 games. Minnesota played last night at Tampa Bay and fell to the Lightning, 7-3. The Wild are 1-5 when playing without rest.
|
01-19-24 |
Marist +3.5 v. Mt. St. Mary's |
Top |
48-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 49 m |
Show
|
Maybe I'm a sucker, but I can't turn down taking points with the better team. That's what I find in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference matchup between Marist and Mount St. Mary's.
Marist is 8-6. The Red Foxes have a strong 10-4 ATS record. Mount St. Mary's is 6-10 and has a losing ATS mark.
The Red Foxes are a strong defensive team, holding foes to 62.6 points a game. That ranks 10th-best in the country. Mount St. Mary's is below average in scoring, rebounding, 3-point shooting and free throw percentage. The Mountaineers also surrender nearly 10 more points per game than Marist.
The Mountaineers are 2-4 in their last six games, including losing and failing to cover in their last two. The Red Foxes halted a four-game losing skid with a confidence-building, 83-60, victory against Rider.
If you discount an 82-61 loss to Fairfield, Marist is giving up an average of only 58.3 points in its last nine games. I don't see Mount St. Mary's scoring too many points. So receiving multiple points looms large.
|
01-18-24 |
Troy State v. South Alabama |
Top |
71-74 |
Loss |
-115 |
20 h 5 m |
Show
|
Troy enters this matchup riding a lot of momentum and has significant edges on South Alabama in several key areas.
The Trojans are on a six-game winning and covering streak. They lead the Sun Belt Conference with a 5-0 mark. South Alabama is 2-3 in the Sun Belt.
Troy averages 81.4 points a game. That's nearly seven points more per game than South Alabama. The Trojans also are the superior rebounding team and 3-point shooting team. Troy ranks 119th in 3-point accuracy. The Jaguars, by contrast, rank 298th in 3-point accuracy. Troy ranks 52nd in the nation in rebounding while the Jaguars are 252nd.
Not only is Troy superior to South Alabama on paper, but also in the respected kenpom.com ratings where the Trojans are ranked 141st compared to the Jaguars being 205th.
So I don't find it too much to ask of the Trojans to just win this game.
|
01-17-24 |
Heat v. Raptors +1.5 |
|
97-121 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 47 m |
Show
|
There are enough factors going to support the home underdog Raptors.
Since an embarrassing road loss to the Pistons, the Raptors have played better. Their offense is improved with the additions of RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley. They were acquired in a trade with the Knicks and have now played eight games with Toronto.
Following the loss to Detroit, the Raptors beat the Cavaliers, who are on a five-game win streak, and then went 2-4 on a road trip with three of those defeats occurring in close fashion, including a controversial one-point loss to the Lakers. Toronto then hosted the Celtics, who have the best record in the NBA at 31-9, and played a strong defensive game in a 105-96 loss this past Monday.
That makes this an important home game for the Raptors. It's also a revenge spot. The Heat downed the Raptors, 112-103, at Toronto on Dec. 6. Caleb Martin had a season-best 24 points and a career-best 12 rebounds in that game. I don't see Martin duplicating those numbers.
Miami is in a fat-and-happy mood following a 96-95 overtime road win against the Nets two days ago. That was the Heat's third win in a row. Miami has Jimmy Butler back, but is down rotation players Jaime Jaquez and Kevin Love.
The Raptors holding the Celtics 16 points below their season average is a strong positive and gives me confidence to back them here.
|
01-17-24 |
Lafayette v. Holy Cross +5.5 |
Top |
72-68 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 57 m |
Show
|
The bar is set low for Holy Cross in this Patriot League matchup. Holy Cross is 4-13. Lafayette is 5-12, but leads the Patriot League with a 4-0 mark. The Crusaders are 1-3 in league making this a crucial home game for them.
Lafayette is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation. The Leopards average only 60.2 points per game on 39.3 percent shooting from the floor and 27.7 percent from 3-point range. Holy Cross averages five more points per game than Lafayette.
The Crusaders have the best player on the court in Joe Octave. He averages 15 points and 6.6 rebounds. The Crusaders snapped a three-game losing streak with a 69-66 overtime road win against Lehigh as a 10-point 'dog. So the Crusaders should bring in confidence for this key league game.
The Leopards are 2-8 in their 10 road/neutral site games.
I make Holy Cross the favorite in this matchup. So getting these many points is a bonus.
|
01-17-24 |
Rhode Island +8.5 v. St Bonaventure |
|
64-99 |
Loss |
-108 |
8 h 35 m |
Show
|
Rhode Island had a rough December. But sparked by David Green, the Rams are playing their best ball winning and covering their last four games.
Green has scored 15 or more points in three of the four games he's played. He had 24 points in the Rams' last game, an 89-77 upset victory against UMass.
The Rams are 3-0 in the Atlantic 10 winning all three games as underdogs. St. Bonaventure has failed to cover the last three times it has been favored.
I find Rhode Island to be undervalued again in this matchup.
|
01-16-24 |
Wisconsin v. Penn State +7.5 |
Top |
83-87 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 25 m |
Show
|
Wisconsin remains the lone unbeaten team in Big Ten play. But no team goes unbeaten through the conference schedule in this rugged league. So the Badgers are on borrowed time. That time could be up in this matchup.
Penn State is 4-2 ATS in its Big Ten games. The Nittany Lions upset Michigan at a neutral site three games ago. Since then, however, the Nittany Lions have lost to second-ranked Purdue and Northwestern. So this becomes a circle-the-wagons home game for Penn State, which upset Ohio State at home and nearly upset Maryland on the road losing in overtime.
This is just the Badgers' fifth true road game. They are 2-2 in those away contests with their defeats coming to Providence by 13 and to Arizona by 25.
The teams played two close games last season with Wisconsin edging Penn State, 63-60 and 79-74.
|
01-16-24 |
Texas A&M v. Arkansas +3.5 |
|
77-78 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 38 m |
Show
|
Arkansas is 7-2 at home, including a victory against Duke, and draws Texas A&M in a letdown spot.
The Aggies are off their finest win of the season. They beat Kentucky, 97-92 in overtime, at home this past Saturday. It was the first time the Aggies defeated a ranked team this season and it was their first victory against the Wildcats since 2018.
The Razorbacks should be fired-up after consecutive road defeats to Florida and Georgia. Arkansas coach Eric Musselman ripped his team following the latest loss.
|
01-15-24 |
Eagles -2.5 v. Bucs |
Top |
9-32 |
Loss |
-120 |
154 h 59 m |
Show
|
The Eagles catch two major breaks here. This game is on Monday night so they get extra rest. They also draw the Buccaneers. The Eagles are at low ebb right now dropping five of their last six games. They certainly won't lack motivation now that the playoffs are here. Tampa Bay, winner of the weak NFC South Division, is one of the worst teams in the postseason. The Bucs are last in rushing and Baker Mayfield is banged-up. Tampa Bay has produced a combined 22 points in its last two games going against the Panthers and Saints. Philadelphia played a much more difficult schedule than Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers only went 1-5 in games vs playoff teams. The one victory came against the Packers. The Buccaneers hosted the Eagles back in Week 3. It didn't go well for Tampa Bay. The Eagles won, 25-11. The Buccaneers could only manage 12 first downs and 41 yards rushing.
|
01-15-24 |
Dartmouth +18 v. Princeton |
|
58-76 |
Push |
0 |
13 h 23 m |
Show
|
Dartmouth is below the radar and justifiably so with three straight losses and non-covers. But the Big Green has had injuries. Now they finally are healthy.
Princeton is the best team in the Ivy League. Still, this is a lot of points for the Tigers to be laying in a slow-paced Ivy League matchup. Dartmouth is respectable on defense holding foes to an average of 68.7 points a game.
There could be a rust factor, too, since neither team has played in nine days. That adds some randomness and randomness is good when backing a large underdog.
The Tigers have been overpriced. They are 2-4 ATS in their last six lined games. I find them overpriced again in this spot given the circumstances.
|
01-14-24 |
Washington v. UCLA +3 |
|
61-73 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 46 m |
Show
|
UCLA covered against Marquette and Gonzaga in narrow losses to those schools earlier this season. Few, though, are rushing to the window to bet the Bruins these days. UCLA is 1-8 in its last nine games and off an embarrassing, 90-44, road loss to Utah this past Thursday.
But now the Bruins are returning home and I'm buying low on them as home underdogs to mediocre Washington, which ranks 277th defensively.
Clearly this is a circle-the-wagons game for UCLA. The Bruins have owned the Huskies winning the past nine times.
UCLA is way overdue. The Bruins are going to have tremendous motivation. This is the spot to back them.
|
01-14-24 |
Packers v. Cowboys -7 |
Top |
48-32 |
Loss |
-110 |
45 h 49 m |
Show
|
The Packers surprised many people sneaking into the playoffs as the final wild-card team. But that is their ceiling.
Dallas could be the best team in the NFL when playing at home. The Cowboys have won 16 games in a row at AT&T Stadium. That includes an 8-0 mark this season with the average winning margin being 21.5 points.
Green Bay is the youngest team in the NFL. The Packers had no Pro Bowl players. None. They are 28th in run defense. Star cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable with an ankle injury. Joe Barry is one of the worst defensive coordinators in the league. He will not have answers, nor innovations, to slow down Dallas' high-powered attack.
The Cowboys were the top-scoring team in the NFL. Dak Prescott was first in touchdown passes. He has a 22-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home. CeeDee Lamb is right there with Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase and Tyreek Hill as the best wide receiver in football.
Before closing out their regular season facing the Vikings' rookie fourth-string quarterback and the Bears, the Packers surrendered 34 points to the Buccaneers at home. They made Baker Mayfield look like Joe Montana. Then Green Bay gave up 30 points to the Panthers. Carolina ranked last in yards gained and second-to-last in points. The Panthers were shut out in their final two games after playing Green Bay.
The Packers, Jordan Love and their many young receivers are in the development stage. The Cowboys have gone 12-5 each of the last three seasons making the playoffs each year. They are far ahead of the Packers at this juncture.
|
01-13-24 |
Pelicans +3 v. Mavs |
|
118-108 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 13 m |
Show
|
The Pelicans are fully healthy. The Mavericks are not. Luka Doncic is out with an ankle injury. Dante Exum, the Mavericks' fifth-leading scorer, is out, too. Rotation player Dereck Lively II is questionable.
The Pelicans are coming off a 125-113 road loss to Denver. New Orleans had won seven consecutive road games until that defeat.
The Mavericks are off a highly-satisfying and hard-fought, 128-124, home win against the Knicks two days ago. That game had huge motivation for the Mavericks because Jalen Brunson was returning to Dallas. The Mavericks also wanted to show they could win without superstar Doncic, who sat out that contest.
I'm willing to take a healthy and hot Pelicans team - 6-2 in their last eight games - against the Mavericks, who may not be quite as up for this game as they were Thursday and won't have their best player.
|
01-13-24 |
CS-Fullerton v. CS-Northridge -4 |
|
71-76 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 11 m |
Show
|
Cal Northridge is a better team than Cal State-Fullerton and the timing sets up well for the Matadors.
The Matadors just played on Thursday and lost, 95-75, to UC Davis on the road. That was just the second time in 14 games that Northridge failed to cover the spread. The Matadors are 12-4 and 12-2 ATS in their lined games. One of those victories was a 76-72 victory against UCLA on the road as a 17-point underdog. It wasn't a fluke win either as the Matadors were in control for much of the game.
Fullerton is 1-3 in its last four games. The Titans haven't played in a week. So they figure to be rusty while Northridge is anxious to atone for its poor showing this past Thursday.
Another factor Northridge has going is its coach, Andy Newman, is a former coach at Fullerton. He's been pointing to this game.
|
01-13-24 |
San Diego State v. New Mexico -3.5 |
|
70-88 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 32 m |
Show
|
San Diego State isn't the same on the road. The Aztecs are 2-6 ATS in away and neutral site games this season.
New Mexico has one of the top home floor edges. That's held true again this season as the Lobos are 8-0 SU at home. They've covered six of their seven lined home games.
The Lobos should be up for this matchup after losing, 83-73, on the road to Las Vegas this past Tuesday.
|
01-12-24 |
Dayton +1.5 v. Duquesne |
|
72-62 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 57 m |
Show
|
Dayton has won nine in a row. The Flyers shouldn't be an underdog to Duquesne.
The Flyers are road-tested playing Houston and LSU on neutral courts and winning at SMU, Cincinnati and Davidson.
Duquesne's 6-1 home record is misleading. The Dukes have played extremely easy competition at home. The best team they hosted was Princeton and they lost straight-up to the Tigers as a six-point favorite.
Dayton ranks fourth in the country in 3-point shooting hitting 40.5 percent. Duquesne's biggest defensive weakness is 3-point defense.
|
01-12-24 |
Minnesota v. Indiana -3.5 |
Top |
62-74 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 7 m |
Show
|
I'm selling high on the Gophers right now.
Picked to finish last in the Big Ten Conference by the media, Minnesota is a surprising 12-3 and tied for second in the Big Ten with a 3-1 league mark. The Gophers are off narrow victories against Michigan and Maryland. They've won seven in a row.
But I see reality closing in on Minnesota. The Gophers' next four games are this one at Indiana, then Iowa followed by a road game at Michigan State and then Wisconsin.
Minnesota only has played two true road games. Indiana is 8-1 at home this season.
The Hooisers should be highly motivated for this matchup after losing, 66-57, on the road to Rutgers this past Tuesday. Indiana was an embarrassing 4-of-15 from the foul line in that loss.
The 11-5 Hooisers are not a good free throw shooting team, but they do connect on 48.4 percent of their field goal attempts. That rates 35th in the country.
|
01-11-24 |
Blazers +13.5 v. Thunder |
Top |
77-139 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 1 m |
Show
|
Portland is going through another tough period with four blowout losses and a victory during its last five games. So why back the Trail Blazers here? The complex answer is when things don't seem to make sense in the NBA, that's usually the right side to be on.
Then there's this: Oklahoma City just beat Miami, 128-120, on Wednesday night. Playing the physical, usually ultra-competitive Heat rarely is easy. The last three teams who played the Heat failed to cover in their next game. Oklahoma City will be playing without rest and is in action for the third time in four days. The Thunder have a more challenging matchup on deck when they host the much-improved Magic on Sunday.
The Trail Blazers should be up for this contest after getting buried by the Knicks at New York this past Tuesday. Prior to that game, Portland upset Brooklyn on the road as a 9 1/2-point 'dog. By comparison, the Thunder played at the Nets this past Friday and lost.
Portland has a winning ATS mark on the road this season. The Trail Blazers own outright away victories against the Raptors, Pacers and Cavaliers. They've lost road games by six or fewer points to the Bucks, Lakers, Clippers, Jazz and Kings. I look for them to hang in during this one.
|
01-11-24 |
Celtics v. Bucks -4.5 |
|
102-135 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 28 m |
Show
|
Only once all season have the Celtics been an underdog. But there are good reasons why Boston is getting so many points in this matchup. This spot sets up entirely for the Bucks. The oddsmaker knows it, making Milwaukee a strong favorite. But the Bucks should be favored by even more. That's how favorable this situation is for Milwaukee.
The Bucks are in circle-the-wagons mode after losing two in a row and four of their last five with a pair of those defeats occurring to the Pacers, who they've had problems matching up to this season.
The Bucks by no means are conceding that the Celtics are the best team in the Eastern Conference. This is their chance to make a statement. Milwaukee has revenge for a 119-116 road loss to Boston on Nov. 22. This time the Bucks draw Boston at home and they are rested having been idle since Monday.
Milwaukee will have all hands on deck, including Damian Lillard, who missed the last game. Boston, on the other hand, may have to rest some of its players, or at least reduce their minutes following last night's 127-120 overtime win against the Timberwolves that kept the Celtics' home record perfect at 18-0. Boston had to rally from nine points down late in the fourth quarter to pull out the victory.
The cost was heavy minutes for Boston's key players. Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Derrick White and Jrue Holiday all logged at least 40 minutes. Ancient Al Horford played 38 minutes. Not only is this a back-to-back game for the Celtics, but it's their fifth game in seven days.
|
01-11-24 |
Stony Brook v. Towson -4.5 |
|
64-73 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 55 m |
Show
|
I find this line short. Towson is 6-0 at home. Stony Brook hosted Towson last year and lost, 67-55. Towson is superior to the Seawolves again this season.
Towson has huge edges defensively and on the boards. The Tigers rank 34th defensively. They have given up an average of only 54 points in their last four games. They rank fifth in the nation in defensive rebounding. The Tigers had 11 more rebounds than Stony Brook in last year's game.
Stony Brook ranks 306th in defensive rebounding and is 340th in the nation in 3-point defense.
|
01-10-24 |
The Citadel v. Furman -9.5 |
Top |
68-82 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 18 m |
Show
|
Back on Dec. 19, The Citadel stunned Notre Dame, beating the Irish, 65-45, as an 8 1/2-point road 'dog.
Much has changed this month, though, for the Bulldogs. And it's not good. The Citadel suffered multiple injuries, losing leading scorer AJ Smith to a shoulder injury and second-leading rebounder Winston Hill to a season-ending knee injury.
The Bulldogs were missing four players in their last game, which was an 80-64 home loss to Samford this past Saturday.
Now the Bulldogs have to go on the road to meet Furman. The Paladins are in stop-the-pain mode with three straight losses. Furman buried The Citadel at home last season, 97-72. However, the Bulldogs upset the Paladins, 69-65, when they hosted them later in the season. Furman hasn't lost two in a row to The Citadel in 11 years.
Furman averages 81.8 points a game. The Citadel has allowed 80 points in each of its last two games. The Paladins have two big scorers in Marcus Foster and JP Pegues. They are averaging 19.8 points and 18.8 points per game, respectively. Minus Smith, the Bulldogs' leading scorer is Elijah Morgan at 14.5 points.
Ed Conroy, coach of The Citadel, admitted his team is going to have to reinvent themselves following all these injuries. That's going to take time. So the spot sets up well for Furman.
|
01-09-24 |
Raptors v. Lakers -5 |
Top |
131-132 |
Loss |
-105 |
24 h 27 m |
Show
|
Next to winning the NBA in-season tournament, the Lakers won perhaps their most important game of the season this past Sunday edging the Clippers, 106-103. The Clippers had won five in a row entering that matchup while the Lakers had dropped four straight.
The Lakers were 3-10 since capturing the in-season tournament before defeating the Clippers. There was growing friction inside the Lakers between some players and coach Darvin Ham. But LeBron James and Anthony Davis had huge performances and D'Angelo Russell returned after missing three games because of a bruised tailbone to lead the Lakers past the Clippers and take the focus off Ham.
I don't see the Lakers just giving back that game by losing at home to the Raptors here.
Toronto is a bit fat and happy following a 133-118 road win against the Warriors this past Sunday. That gave the Raptors a 2-1 record on their current six-game road trip. This marks the Raptors' fourth road game in seven days and seventh overall game in 12 days.
The Raptors haven't been playing good defense, surrendering an average of 122.3 points a game during their past six games.
|
01-09-24 |
Rhode Island v. Davidson -5 |
|
79-74 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 58 m |
Show
|
I'm looking for a strong bounce back effort from Davidson at home after the Wildcats lost its Atlantic-10 opener six days ago to Dayton, 72-59. That was the Wildcats' first home defeat in seven games and also halted a seven-game win streak. Davidson had a bad shooting night, while Dayton was hot making 50 percent of its shots from the floor.
Davidson matches up much better against Rhode Island.
The Wildcats are the stronger defensive team, has a much better turnover ratio than the Rams and has a deeper bench. The Rams give up six more points per game than Davidson and rank 283rd in 3-point defense. The Rams also rate 284th in turnovers.
|
01-09-24 |
Houston v. Iowa State +2.5 |
|
53-57 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 0 m |
Show
|
Getting even a basket with Iowa State is huge in this matchup of defensive giants.
The Cyclones had their six-game win streak halted on the road by 11th-ranked Oklahoma State this past Saturday. I like the Cyclones to get back on the winning track at home. Iowa State ranks fifth in the country in defensive efficiency.
Houston is unbeaten. But five of the Cougars' last six games have been against extremely easy foes.
|
01-08-24 |
Washington v. Michigan -4 |
|
13-34 |
Win
|
100 |
76 h 19 m |
Show
|
It's time. Michigan has the superior defense, ground attack and big-game experience having been in three straight college football playoffs to beat Washington by more than a field goal.
Washington hasn't faced a defense this good. The Wolverines give up the fewest points per game in the nation. They rank No. 2 in fewest yards allowed, too, and in pass defense.
Those who like Washington in this title game say Michigan hasn't faced a quarterback the caliber of Michael Penix Jr. The Wolverines, though, beat their share of talented quarterbacks - Jalen Milroe, Taulia Tagovailoa, Kyle McCord and Drew Allar. Michigan also is familiar with Penix having gone against him when he played for Indiana before transferring to Washington.
The Huskies have good wide receivers. But Michigan has seen better having knocked off Ohio State, who had Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka and Julian Fleming.
Michigan is stronger than Washington in the trenches. The Wolverines sacked Alabama's Milroe six times in holding the Crimson Tide to 20 points. Penix isn't as mobile as Milroe.
Something overlooked in this matchup is penalty yardage. The well-coached Wolverines had the second-fewest penalties in the nation. Washington had more than 70 yards in penalties called against them per game, a difference of about 51 yards compared to Michigan.
Washington ranked 122nd in pass defense and 41st in run defense. Michigan's star running back Blake Corum ran for 177 yards and three touchdowns when the teams met two seasons ago at Michigan. The Wolverines won that game, 31-10.
Michigan's ground edge will be even more significant if Dillon Johnson, the Huskies' 1,000-yard rusher, is compromised, or unable to play, because of a lower body injury suffered against Texas in Washington's Super Bowl victory.
|
01-07-24 |
Eagles v. Giants +5 |
Top |
10-27 |
Win
|
100 |
136 h 9 m |
Show
|
The Eagles don't need to beat the Giants unless the Cowboys happen to lose to the Commanders. That's not going to happen. The Cowboys are two-touchdown favorites in that game. So the Eagles will be the NFC's No. 5 seed.
Both the Dallas and Philadelphia Sunday games go later in the afternoon. The Eagles will be monitoring the Cowboys-Commanders matchup. If that game goes as expected with Dallas winning, Eagles coach Nick Sirianni is going to want to pull Jalen Hurts and other starters not wanting to risk injury.
But even if the Eagles starters play the entire game - which I don't anticipate - the Giants are capable of beating Philadelphia straight-up.
New York would be 4-3 in its last seven games if not for a one-point loss to the Rams this past Sunday. Tyrod Taylor is the right quarterback choice. The Giants' offensive line has gotten healthier. Darren Waller has returned at tight end.
The Eagles' defense is gassed. They are giving up 31.5 points a game during their last six games. They miss Jonathan Gannon, their defensive coordinator from last season who now coaches the Cardinals. Gannon's Cardinals ran for 221 yards and never punted in beating the Eagles, 35-31, this past Sunday at Philadelphia. Saquon Barkley is better than James Conner or any runner Arizona has.
|
01-06-24 |
Cincinnati v. BYU -8.5 |
Top |
71-60 |
Loss |
-110 |
22 h 7 m |
Show
|
BYU is 12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS, ranks fourth in the nation in scoring, 12th in the country defensively and has a winning margin of 28.9 points, which leads all Division I teams.
And the Cougars haven't even been 100 percent - until now. Expected to play is defensive ace Fousseyni Traore, who is the Cougars' sixth-leading scorer. He had missed December because of a hamstring injury.
The 12th-ranked Cougars are ready to make their Big 12 debut against Cincinnati, another newcomer to the esteemed Big 12 Conference.
BYU is a legitimate 12-1. All of its victories have been by at least nine points. The Cougars average 90.4 points and hold their foes to an average of 61.5 points.
Cincinnati is 11-2, but that record is bogus given the soft schedule the Bearcats have played. This is just the Bearcats' third true road game of the season.
Cincinnati failed to cover as 12 1/2-point road favorites against Howard needing overtime to win, 86-81. The Bearcats lost on the road to Xavier, 84-79, as one-point underdogs. Cincinnati also has played one neutral site game. That was against Dayton. The Bearcats were 5 1/2-point favorites and lost, 82-68.
Given their road woes and soft schedule, I don't see the Bearcats staying within double-digits of the powerful Cougars.
|
01-06-24 |
Knicks v. Wizards +9 |
|
121-105 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 9 m |
Show
|
The Knicks are 3-0 since acquiring three players from the Raptors, including OG Anunoby. They are off their most lopsided win of the season, a 128-92 rout of the 76ers last night.
That has to be highly satisfying for the Knicks. It also makes them fat and happy for this road matchup against the hapless Wizards.
Washington is terrible defensively. However, the Wizards are an above average scoring and shooting team. The Knicks' interior defense is down since center Mitchell Robinson was injured.
The situational spot highly favors Washington. The Wizards were idle on Friday, unlike the Knicks, and off two embarrassing road losses to the Cavaliers. Previous to those games, the Wizards had lost by four points at home to the Hawks and upset the Nets at home, covering both games.
The Knicks carry a heavy fatigue rating. Not only are they playing without rest, but this is their third game in four days and sixth game in nine days.
|
01-06-24 |
Steelers v. Ravens +3 |
|
17-10 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 1 m |
Show
|
Just because the Steelers are in a must-win spot to keep their playoff hopes alive, doesn't mean they will win. Yes, I understand the Ravens have clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC and will be sitting out multiple starters, including Lamar Jackson.
But John Harbaugh doesn't like losing, especially to Baltimore's bitter rival, which is Pittsburgh.
The Ravens have excellent depth and revenge for a frustrating 17-10 Week 5 loss to the Steelers when Baltimore turned the ball over three times.
Harbaugh has shown how much he hates losing as the Ravens are 24-2 in their last 26 preseason games. Baltimore also has covered 77 percent of the time the past 31 instances it has been an underdog going 24-7 ATS.
Tyler Huntley will be starting instead of Jackson. But he's no worse, if not better, than Pittsburgh's QB, immobile Mason Rudolph, who was Mike Tomlin's third choice at quarterback after Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky.
The Steelers have injuries at linebacker and in the secondary so they also will have reserves in their lineup.
|
01-05-24 |
Wolves -3.5 v. Rockets |
Top |
122-95 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 15 m |
Show
|
The Timberwolves are off consecutive losses to the Knicks and Pelicans at home. They have not lost three in a row all season.
Timberwolves coach Chris Finch called out his team for not playing harder and with not enough purpose. I believe the Timberwolves show up here with a lot of determination and motivation.
Houston is No. 2 in the NBA in defense. The one team ahead of the Rockets is Minnesota. The Timberwolves give up the fewest points per game and rank first, too, in fewest points allowed per 100 possessions.
The Rockets are 2-0 in their last two games. Those victories have been against the Pistons, the worst team in the NBA, and to the sagging Nets, who have lost five in a row. The Rockets had lost their previous three games - all when stepping up in class with losses to the 76ers, Suns and Pacers. This is a step-up-in-class game for Houston.
|
01-05-24 |
Connecticut -4.5 v. Butler |
|
88-81 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 22 m |
Show
|
Butler has never beaten Connecticut in seven tries. Butler has never kept the final score below double-digits either in any of its losses to Connecticut. Maybe the Bulldogs can keep this game in single digits, but I don't see them pulling the upset.
There are reasons why Butler has never defeated the Huskies. The Bulldogs can't match that talent level, size and athletic ability.
Connecticut is fourth-ranked in the country. The Huskies are playing well going 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS in their past six games.
Butler is not in good form having lost its past two games. Those losses were to St. John's by 16 points and to Providence in overtime. The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five board games.
|
01-04-24 |
Texas-Arlington +5 v. Tarleton St |
|
76-78 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 43 m |
Show
|
Texas Arlington is underpriced here. The Mavericks have played a tougher schedule than Tarleton State. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six lined games. This includes the Mavericks covering against Texas, Texas Tech and Grand Canyon, who they led in the second half against.
Tarleton State has been favored twice in the last four weeks and failed to cover each time. The Texans nearly lost to Texas Rio Grande Valley as a 10 1/2-point home favorite.
|
01-03-24 |
Pistons +9 v. Jazz |
Top |
148-154 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 1 m |
Show
|
Utah is fat and happy after getting satisfying revenge on Dallas this past Monday. The Jazz whipped the Mavericks, 127-90, after having lost to the Mavericks by 50 points in their previous matchup on Dec. 6. The Pistons have their own short revenge here. The Jazz defeated the Pistons, 119-111, as 2 1/2-point road favorites on Dec. 21. Since then the Pistons halted an NBA record-tying 28-game losing streak by edging the Raptors. Following that victory, the Pistons had their own letdown losing to the Rockets, 136-113, on the road two days ago. The Pistons should be ready again now. Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks shouldn't lack motivation having formerly played for the Jazz. This is just the second time since Dec. 2 that Utah is favored. It's also the most points Utah is laying all season.
|
01-03-24 |
Indiana v. Nebraska -5 |
|
70-86 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 52 m |
Show
|
This is Fred Hoiberg's best Nebraska team since taking over the Cornhuskers in 2019. The Cornhuskers are 11-2, including 9-1 at home. I see them getting the job done at home against Indiana, a game Hoiberg has been pointing to. Indiana has played three straight easy home games beating Morehead State, North Alabama and Kennesaw State. This is only the Hooisers' second true road game.
|
01-03-24 |
St. Thomas -4.5 v. Idaho |
|
75-67 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 8 m |
Show
|
I have no problem fading Idaho, who has played a very weak schedule. The Vandals are a below average scoring team and rank 326nd in 3-point defense. St. Thomas is 2-0 in the Summit League with impressive wins and covers against North Dakota and Kansas City. The Tommies have covered five of their last six lined games, including the past four. They are giving up just 54.5 points in their last four games.
|
01-02-24 |
Hornets +16 v. Kings |
|
111-104 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is the biggest margin the Kings have been favored all season. It's justified considering the opponent is Charlotte. But the spot isn't good for the Kings. So I'll accept this many points with the Hornets.
The Kings haven't played at home since Dec. 23. They've been on the road for three straight games. Sacramento won the last two of those away games, beating the Hawks and Grizzlies on New Year's Eve. So the Kings didn't get back to Sacramento until New Year's Day. That gave them little time to celebrate the holidays.
It's going to be difficult for the Kings to have their full concentration and motivation for this matchup. The Kings also have a much bigger game on deck when they host Orlando on Wednesday.
This is the fifth of a six-game road trip for the Hornets and ends the West Coast portion of their journey. Their previous four games have been against the Clippers, Lakers, Suns and Nuggets. The Hornets are hoping to get Terry Rozier back from illness. That would be an added plus.
The Hornets shored up their backcourt recently signing veteran Ish Smith, who was with the world champion Nuggets last season.
|
01-02-24 |
Purdue v. Maryland +6.5 |
|
67-53 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 40 m |
Show
|
Top-ranked Purdue has one loss this season. That defeat occurred to Northwestern on the road. It happened to be the Boilermakers' lone true road game this season.
Now Purdue travels to Maryland to face the Terps, who have a powerful home court edge. Maryland has won 19 consecutive home contests, the fourth-longest streak in Division I.
The Boilermakers didn't fare well at Maryland last season losing, 68-54.
The Terrapins have the interior defense to control Zach Edey.
|
01-01-24 |
Cavs +2.5 v. Raptors |
|
121-124 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 55 m |
Show
|
Wrong favorite here. The 18-14 Cavaliers are the superior team, in a better situational spot and in much better form than the 12-20 Raptors.
Cleveland is 5-2 SU and ATS in its last seven games. The Cavaliers just got back their superstar, Donovan Mitchell, too, in their last game after he had missed the previous four contests due to illness.
Toronto is 1-5 in its last six games, 2-4 ATS.
The Cavaliers are the more rested team having last played this past Friday. The Raptors played on Saturday and suffered a 129-127 road loss to Detroit. The Pistons halted their 28-game losing streak with that victory.
The Raptors are in transition having just made a major trade with the Knicks acquiring RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley for OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa and Malachi Flynn. It could take time for the new players to adjust and for the Raptors to reshuffle their rotation.
|
12-31-23 |
Bengals v. Chiefs -6.5 |
|
17-25 |
Win
|
100 |
120 h 13 m |
Show
|
The Chiefs are not an elite team right now. But the Bengals aren't even a playoff team without Joe Burrow and D.J. Reader to fortify the team's run defense. So I'm going to buy low on the Chiefs to beat the Bengals by more than a touchdown at home.
This feels like an overdue blowout victory for the Chiefs off one of their worst losses of the Patrick Mahomes era.
The Bengals have faced backup quarterbacks each of the last three games. Now they get Mahomes after just surrendering 34 points to the Steelers and Mason Rudolph.
Just like Joshua Dobbs and Tommy DeVito, the magic is wearing off on backup QB Jake Browning. These reserve quarterbacks become exposed once opponents see enough of them and fully realize their many limitations.
The Chiefs rank No. 2 in the NFL in fewest points and yards. I don't see Browning doing much against this strong of a defense on the road, especially if he doesn't get Ja'Marr Chase back.
|
12-31-23 |
Chargers +5 v. Broncos |
|
9-16 |
Loss |
-110 |
100 h 24 m |
Show
|
The demoralized Broncos aren't making the playoffs for the eighth straight season. Because of that and financial considerations, they could sit out Russell Wilson. Jarrett Stidham is Denver's backup QB. That's a huge dropoff.
The Chargers showed new life in their first game without fired coach Brandon Staley nearly upsetting the Bills. Staley was holding the Chargers back with his terrible on-field decisions and hurting team morale.
Denver already has lost four times as a home favorite. The last coming to the Patriots in gut-punching fashion this past Sunday night.
The Chargers usually keep games close. They have lost six games by three or fewer points. The Chargers have had a chance to adjust to new QB Easton Stick and want to keep sticking it to the unpopular Staley by playing hard for popular interim coach Giff Smith.
|
12-31-23 |
Raiders v. Colts -3.5 |
Top |
20-23 |
Loss |
-108 |
45 h 13 m |
Show
|
The Raiders buried the Chargers, 63-21, at home two weeks ago, drawing an opponent that picked that game to quit on their coach. Then last week the Raiders scored two defensive touchdowns to upset the Chiefs. That game might have been the Raiders' Super Bowl considering how much they celebrated and how emotional it was for interim coach Antonio Pierce.
Pierce is an upgrade on the egregious Josh McDaniels, but he's not in the class of the Colts' Shane Steichen.
The oddsmaker has priced this matchup like these two teams are even considering Indy's home-field advantage and an early start time for the Raiders. Yes, those are edges for the Colts. But the Colts also are much better than the Raiders.
Thanks to the innovative Steichen, the Colts rank in the top-10 in scoring. They are 5-2 in their last seven games. Jonathan Taylor is back and primed for a big game. Michael Pittman is expected to play, too, after being out last week with a concussion. That gives Gardner Minshew his two best weapons.
The Raiders rank 25th in scoring and 29th in total yards. Rookie Aidan O'Connell is in the argument for worst starting quarterback. Josh Jacobs has missed the last two games with a knee injury and is questionable.
|
12-30-23 |
Lions v. Cowboys -6 |
Top |
19-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
101 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is both a play on Dallas and fade on Detroit. The spot intersects perfectly.
The Cowboys return home following a close road loss to the Dolphins. Dallas has been absolutely dominant at home and very strong, too, off a loss. Dallas is 7-0 at home. The Cowboys' average winning margin at home is 24.4 points. Dallas also is 8-1 SU and ATS the past two seasons following a defeat.
The Lions are in a major letdown spot after capturing their first division crown in 30 years.
Dallas is second in the NFL in scoring at 30.1 points a game. Detroit also has a good offense. The difference is defense. The Cowboys give up the fifth-fewest points per game at 19.1. The Lions have permitted an average of 26.8 points during their last nine games. Detroit ranks 24th in scoring defense and 23rd in pass defense.
Dak Prescott has a 122.5 passer rating at home and a home mark of 20 touchdown passes and only two interceptions.
There's also a 10-figure gap in turnover ratio. Dallas is plus 8 in takeaways/giveaways while the Lions are minus-2.
|
12-30-23 |
Knicks v. Pacers -3.5 |
|
126-140 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
|
It's obvious the Knicks are missing underrated defensive center Mitchell Robinson. New York has surrendered an average of 124.5 points in its last four games. Now the Knicks have to face the Pacers on the road. Indiana leads the NBA in scoring at 126.1 points.
The spot isn't good either for the Knicks. They are playing for the fourth time in six days and on back-to-back days after losing, 117-108, to the Magic in Orlando on Friday. The Knicks' best players - Julius Randle, RJ Barrett and Jalen Brunson - all logged heavy minutes in that loss.
The Pacers were idle on Friday after beating the Bulls, 120-104, on Thursday. The Pacers are playing better defense, holding their last five opponents to an average of 113.4 points, down from their season average of 124.8 points.
|
12-30-23 |
Portland State -3.5 v. Idaho |
|
77-72 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 4 m |
Show
|
Portland State is a road favorite because the Vikings are the superior team and have played the tougher schedule. The Vikings also hold a rebounding edge on Idaho ranking 126th in rebounds per game compared to the Vandals, who rank 283rd in that category.
The Vikings won't lack motivation either after losing in embarrassing fashion to Eastern Washington, 91-57, as 3-point road 'dogs this past Thursday. The Vandals are a bit fat and happy after they halted a two-game losing streak with a 61-58 home win against Sacramento State as 3-point favorites. Idaho is averaging only 56.6 points in its last three games vs board teams.
|
12-30-23 |
Toledo v. Wyoming -3.5 |
Top |
15-16 |
Loss |
-110 |
26 h 12 m |
Show
|
Craig Bohl and Tucker Gleason. That's the simple answer as to why I strongly favor Wyoming to beat Toledo by more than a field goal in this Arizona Bowl.
The highly-popular and successful Bohl is retiring after 42 years coaching, including the last 10 years at Wyoming. The Cowboys are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five bowl games during the past seven years. Wyoming played in this same Arizona Bowl last season.
Gleason is the backup replacement for Toledo's superstar QB, Dequan Finn. Finn is transferring to Baylor after accounting for 3,220 yards and 29 touchdowns passing and rushing. The Rockets also will be without Peny Boone, their top running back who gained 1,400 rushing and scored 15 touchdowns. He entered the transfer portal. Gleason threw just 21 passes this season. He has completed less than 51 percent of his passes during his college career.
Wyoming has a top-50 defense, is well-coached, has good special teams and has a reliable QB in Andrew Peasley, who threw for 1,823 yards and 20 touchdowns with five interceptions.
Toledo has failed to cover in its last five bowl games under Jason Candle.
|
12-29-23 |
Arizona v. California +14 |
|
100-81 |
Loss |
-109 |
11 h 23 m |
Show
|
Arizona has earned its No. 4 seed playing an extremely tough schedule. But the Wildcats are laying too many points on the road here in this Pac-12 opener.
The Golden Bears are going to slow down the pace under first-year coach Mark Madsen. This is a plus in getting this many points. So is the Golden Bears getting Devin Askew back from injury. He averaged 15.5 points last season. Cal has three other good players in Jaylon Tyson, Fardaws Aimaq and Jalen Cone. Those three are averaging a combined 52 points a game.
|
12-29-23 |
Raptors +8 v. Celtics |
|
118-120 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 9 m |
Show
|
Well the Celtics didn't lose to the Pistons last night. But they sure got a scare trailing by 21 points. Boston won, but the game went into overtime and the Celtics had to dig deep and exert tremendous effort.
That could cost them against a rested, revenge-seeking Raptors squad.
The Raptors are off perhaps their best game of the season. They buried the Wizards on the road, 132-102, this past Wednesday. Before that, Toronto had last played this past Saturday. So the Raptors are rested and ready. They also have double revenge for 117-94 and 108-105 losses to Boston.
The Celtics may not be playing with a full deck. Jayson Tatum is questionable with a sore ankle after playing 43 minutes last night. Jaylen Brown didn't play Thursday night. He's questionable. Tatum wasn't the only player who logged huge minutes Thursday. Jrue Holiday played 44 minutes. Al Horford and Derrick White each went 37 minutes and fragile Kristaps Porzingis logged nearly 36 minutes.
Toronto has a number of good, but underrated players in Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes and Gary Trent Jr.
|
12-29-23 |
Memphis +11 v. Iowa State |
Top |
36-26 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 15 m |
Show
|
This isn't a great Iowa State team. The Cyclones are 7-5. The best teams they beat were Oklahoma State and Kansas State. Memphis can hang with Iowa State,especially having home field advantage, which they do with the game taking place at the Liberty Bowl in Memphis. The Tigers are 9-3 and have plenty of bowl experience. Their only defeats came to the two best teams in the American Athletic Conference, SMU and Tulane, and to Missouri. The Tigers lost those games by an average of seven points. Memphis hasn't lost a game by more than 10 points all season. The Tigers are the seventh-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 39.7 points. Seth Henigan has completed 66.4 percent of his passes for 3,519 yards with a 28-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Iowa State may win, but it won't be by double-digits.
|
12-28-23 |
Prairie View A&M v. Texas-San Antonio -2.5 |
|
89-103 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 53 m |
Show
|
I find this a short number to lay backing Texas-San Antonio at home against Prairie View A&M, which is 1-4 in its last five games and has failed to cover in its past four lined games.
UTSA nearly upset Oregon State as a 10 1/2-point road 'dog two games ago. The Roadrunners suffered a one-point, last-second defeat. Now they're home and dropping well down in class.
Prairie View A&M is one of the worst shooting teams in the country with a field goal percentage of 39.5 percent. The Panthers are bad defensively, too, giving up 76.9 points per game.
UTSA averages nearly 77 points a game and has Christian Tucker, who leads the American Athletic Conference in assists and averages 13 points.
|
12-28-23 |
Pistons +17 v. Celtics |
|
122-128 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 52 m |
Show
|
I understand the Pistons are all-time bad with 27 straight losses. But they are in a great situational spot and the point spread is through the roof. The Celtics concluded a four-game West Coast trip that began nine days ago and finished on Christmas day with a highly-satisfying national TV win against the Lakers, Boston's third consecutive victory.
The Celtics returned home two days ago to celebrate the holidays. They are fat and happy. Now they have to get reinvigorated to play the worst team in the league while also knowing they host the Raptors on Friday. That's a more challenging game. So I'm not expecting anywhere near an "A" game from the Celtics, who could be using their bench players more than usual in this matchup.
The Pistons have been semi-competitive in their last four games playing the Nets twice, Jazz and Hawks. Their average margin of defeat in these games is 7.7 points.
|
12-28-23 |
NC State +2.5 v. Kansas State |
Top |
19-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
30 h 57 m |
Show
|
North Carolina State has plenty of momentum entering this bowl game. I'm going to ride that here as Kansas State was hit hard by players transferring and opting out. I see a wrong favorite here.
The Wolfpack won and covered their last five games. They won four of those games as underdogs beating Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech and North Carolina. Kansas State, on the flip side, lost three times as a favorite falling to Missouri, Oklahoma State and Iowa State. The Wildcats are 2-2, 1-2-1 ATS in their last four games.
I'm not a huge fan of North Carolina State QB Brennan Armstrong. But he's an experienced, dual threat who played well against North Carolina in the Wolfpack's last game passing for 334 yards and three touchdowns helping North Carolina State pile up 504 yards in a 39-20 victory.
Now the Wolfpack drop down from facing Drake Maye, maybe the best quarterback in college, to drawing freshman Avery Johnson. He's replacing the Wildcats' starting QB Will Howard, who was one of around 15 Kansas State players leaving. The Wildcats also lost All-Big 12 tight end Ben Sinnott and star safety Kobe Savage. They also won't have offensive coordinator and play-caller Collin Klein. He left for Texas A&M to be the Aggies' offensive coordinator after coaching at Kansas State for seven years.
Only 16 teams ranked ahead of North Carolina State on run defense. The Wolfpack also ranked third in the country in takeaways with 17.
|
12-26-23 |
Magic -7.5 v. Wizards |
|
127-119 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
Orlando is much improved. Washington remains a bottom-feeder. The Magic are 2-0 vs Washington this season with an average victory margin of 12 points. Both games were in Orlando. But this isn't a good home spot for the Wizards.
Washington hasn't played a home game in 11 days. The Wizards recently returned from a four-game West Coast trip. Washington is 3-18 in its last 21 games and 2-9 in its past 11 games with one of those wins being by one point against the 7-21 Trail Blazers.
Orlando just halted a four-game losing streak with an impressive road victory against the Pacers this past Saturday. The Magic's four losses were to the Bucks, Heat and Celtics twice. So this is a tremendous drop in class.
The Magic have a height advantage and give up 16.6 fewer points per game than the Wizards, who are the worst defensive team in the league. The Magic also can be trusted to give a full effort. That's not always a given in today's NBA.
|
12-26-23 |
Bowling Green +3.5 v. Minnesota |
Top |
24-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 11 m |
Show
|
Just because Minnesota is a Big Ten team and Bowling Green is from the Mid-American Conference doesn't mean the Gophers should automatically be the favorite.
But that's what the oddsmaker has done in this Quick Lane Bowl, which is being held at Ford Field in Detroit.
Bowling Green is the better team. I'll certainly take points to back that opinion.
Minnesota shouldn't even be in a bowl game. The Gophers are 5-7. They are the only non-.500 team to earn a bowl invite. It happened because there were not enough teams that finished 6-6 or better to fill all the bowl slots.
So the committee turned to a Big Ten team. Aside from Michigan and Ohio State, it was a down year in the Big Ten.
Minnesota is average defensively and horrible on offense. The Gophers' best offensive player might be running back Darius Taylor and he's questionable. It was a terrible year in the Big Ten for quarterbacks. One of the lower tier QB's was Minnesota's Athan Kaliakmanis. He started every game. But Kaliakmanis won't play here because he entered the transfer portal. How good can backup Cole Kramer be if he couldn't dislodge Kaliakmanis at any point this season?
I like Bowling Green QB Connor Bazelak much better. He played his best ball down the stretch with a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during his last five games. Bowling Green concluded the regular season winning and covering five of its last six games. Minnesota, by contrast, finished 0-4 SU and ATS.
The Falcons have proved they can step up when playing a Power Five team. They upset Georgia Tech, which beat Central Florida, 30-17, in the Gasparilla Bowl this past Friday. Bowling Green also played Michigan and covered in a 31-6 road loss. Minnesota also went up against Michigan. The Gophers were hammered by the Wolverines at home, 52-10.
Bowling Green and Minnesota played each other two years ago in Minneapolis. The Falcons won, 14-10.
The Falcons are used to this venue. They played in the Quick Lane Bowl last year. The Falcons heavily recruit in Detroit. So this game means a lot to them not just in terms of the prestige of beating a Big Ten team, but also in recruiting.
Minnesota, on the other hand, can't be too excited about this opponent nor the venue. The Gophers weren't even thinking about a bowl game when the regular season concluded.
|
12-25-23 |
Ravens +6.5 v. 49ers |
Top |
33-19 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 45 m |
Show
|
Since 2021, Baltimore is 9-2-1 ATS as an underdog. Lamar Jackson is having an MVP-type season. Jackson is 19-1 against NFC opponents. The Ravens are one rushing touchdown shy of their franchise-best of 24 running TD's.
So as good as San Francisco is, I'm not turning down this many points with Baltimore.
This may be the game of the year. But as strange as it may sound, this is not a crucial game for the 49ers. San Francisco can lose to Baltimore and still earn the No. 1 NFC seed in the playoffs by winning its final two games. Those games are against the 4-11 Commanders and Rams at home.
My handicap is based almost entirely on being pro-Ravens rather than anti-49ers. But San Francisco did give up 234 rushing yards to the Cardinals last week. The 49ers hadn't allowed that many yards on the ground in six seasons. Perhaps a possible red flag? The Ravens are the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL. They've run for at least 100 yards in 30 straight games.
Both teams have Super Bowl-caliber defenses. The Ravens have surrendered 20 touchdowns, which is the fewest in the league. Baltimore has permitted one touchdown or fewer in nine games. That's by far the best mark in the NFL.
Brock Purdy is a pocket passer. He has outstanding weapons that he utilizes well. Jackson is his own weapon. He's the most mobile quarterback the 49ers have faced and by far the best dual-threat they've seen.
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12-23-23 |
Duke v. Troy -7 |
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17-10 |
Loss |
-110 |
62 h 31 m |
Show
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These two teams have changed positions as the season comes to a close. Duke opened 5-1 with just a loss to Notre Dame. But the Blue Devils lost their star QB, Riley Leonard, to injury and went 2-4 the rest of the way falling way out of the top-25.
Troy opened 1-2 and then won 10 in a row, including defeating Appalachian State, 49-23, in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. The Trojans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games.
This is the first time a Sun Belt team is facing a foe from a Power 5 Conference in a bowl game. Troy has more than sufficient motivation. Not so for Duke. The Trojans also will have strong in-state crowd support with this game in Birmingham, Ala.
I had great respect for Duke coach Mike Elko. But he left for Texas A&M. The Blue Devils not only won't have Leonard, who transferred to Notre Dame, but won't have star defensive linemen Aeneas Peebles and RJ Oben. They each entered the transfer portal.
Troy averaged 36.5 points in its last six games. The Trojans are also strong defensively ranking sixth in sacks and 15th in total defense. Duke's offense was well below average without Leonard. The Blue Devils ended up ranking 96th in total yards.
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12-22-23 |
Central Florida v. Georgia Tech +5.5 |
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17-30 |
Win
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100 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
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Central Florida is making its third Gasparilla Bowl appearance in five seasons. That can't be too exciting for the Knights. I question their motivation and their being favored by more than a field goal in this bowl game. Georgia Tech is up for this game. It's the Yellow Jackets' first bowl appearance since 2018. Nice coaching job by Brent Key in his second season with Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets were inconsistent, but dangerous as underdogs. Georgia Tech was 6-2 ATS as underdogs. The Yellow Jackets lost to Louisville by five points and to Georgia by eight points, two teams better than Central Florida. They beat Miami and North Carolina straight-up as double-digit 'dogs. Both Central Florida QB John Rhys Plumlee and Georgia Tech's Haynes King are dual threats. Plumlee, though, is not 100 percent because of a lingering knee injury. Central Florida ranks 121st in run defense and 85th in defensive total yards. The Knights will be without their top defensive back, Corey Thornton. There's going to be lots of scoring in this one - and Georgia Tech will be right there if not on top at the end.
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12-22-23 |
Siena v. Brown -12 |
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67-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 54 m |
Show
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This is bad on bad considering Siena is 2-9 and Brown is 3-9. Usually I prefer the underdog in matchups like this. But there's a reason why Brown is a double-digit favorite and it's not just because the Bears are home.
Siena is terrible. The Saints also happen to be 2-9 ATS. They are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games losing by an average of 25.5 points in their past four games. Siena just lost, 95-74, to Cornell as a 12 1/2-point home 'dog. This is significant. Because we have a similar point spread here with the Saints being on the road against Brown, another Ivy League school.
Brown was right behind Cornell as the fourth-best team in the Ivy League preseason poll. The Bears may have the best player in the Ivy League, Kino Lilly. The guard averages nearly 19 points. He's supported by an experienced and deep frontcourt.
I have Brown winning this game by 16-to-18 points.
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12-21-23 |
Saints v. Rams -4 |
Top |
22-30 |
Win
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100 |
32 h 10 m |
Show
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I've been looking to fade the Saints and this is the right spot. Both teams are 7-7, but the Rams are much the superior team. LA doesn't hold a huge home field advantage compared to other team's. However, the visiting team playing on Thursday is at a big disadvantage. So I believe this point spread is well short.
The Saints have beaten the Giants and Panthers at home during the last two weeks. Typical because New Orleans has played the easiest schedule. The Rams have drawn one of the more difficult schedules going against the 49ers, Eagles, Cowboys, Bengals, Browns and Ravens, who they lost in overtime on the road two weeks ago.
Since Matthew Stafford returned from his finger injury, the Rams have gone 4-1 SU and ATS. Stafford has a 12-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the last four games. Kyren Williams has emerged as one of the top running backs in the league averaging 124.3 rushing yards the last four games. Cooper Kupp has come alive, too, catching 16 passes for 226 yards during the last two weeks.
The Rams are averaging 33 points during the last four weeks. The Saints' defense is down from past seasons and their offense is mediocre at best.
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12-20-23 |
Hawks v. Rockets -3 |
Top |
134-127 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 51 m |
Show
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Look for the Rockets to take care of business at home against the Hawks. Houston is 2-10 on the road, but has won 11 in a row at home.
The Rockets are the far superior defensive team, ranking in the top-three in a number of major categories, including scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.
The Hawks give up an average of 15 more points per game than Houston.
Atlanta has failed to cover in seven of its last eight road games, losing those games by an average of 11 points. The Hawks also are banged-up with Jalen Johnson out and Bogdan Bogdanovic questionable with an ankle injury.
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12-20-23 |
Lakers v. Bulls +4.5 |
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108-124 |
Win
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100 |
10 h 33 m |
Show
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Chicago is one of the hottest point spread teams covering eight of its last nine games. The Bulls have been achieving this going against strong competition, too. They've played the 76ers, Heat twice, Nuggets and Bucks during their last five games.
The Lakers, by contrast, are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS since capturing the NBA's in-season tournament. The Lakers' lone victory during this span was by three points against the 4-22 Spurs.
One of the keys to the Bulls' surge is the return of underrated, ace defensive guard Alex Caruso.
There's the chance the Lakers could be without LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Both are questionable due to injuries. I still like the Bulls if those two play, but it would be a nice bonus if they didn't.
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12-20-23 |
Arkansas State v. Belmont -4 |
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70-74 |
Push |
0 |
9 h 30 m |
Show
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The last time Arkansas State played on the road was a week ago. The Red Wolves upset Louisville. Impressive yes, but that was only their first road win in six tries. I don't see Arkansas State duplicating that success against Belmont, which is 4-0 at home.
Arkansas State is 4-7. Belmont is 8-4. The Red Hawks are turnover-prone, while the Bruins are extremely efficient in their shooting. They rank 22nd in field goal percentage and 28th in 3-point percentage.
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12-18-23 |
Nets -3.5 v. Jazz |
Top |
108-125 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 12 m |
Show
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The Nets are a team I like to get behind. This is a spot to back them. Only the 76ers have a better point spread record than Brooklyn. The Nets are 17-7-1 (71 percent) ATS.
Brooklyn is superior to Utah in all facets. The Nets are looking to conclude their five-game West Coast trip with a victory after consecutive losses to the Warriors and Nuggets. No shame in losing to those two opponents on the road. There would be shame, though, if they lost to the Jazz.
The Jazz are 5-10 in their last 15 games. Two of Utah's past three victories have occurred against the Trail Blazers, one in overtime. Portland is 6-19.
Utah is down some of its firepower with Jordan Clarkson, Keyonte George and John Collins all sidelined. Clarkson and George are out while Collins is questionable due to illness.
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12-17-23 |
Commanders +7 v. Rams |
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20-28 |
Loss |
-120 |
16 h 55 m |
Show
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There is one thing the Commanders have excelled at this season, covering as a road underdog. They are 5-1 ATS in that role.
The Rams left nothing on the field in taking a tough road overtime loss to the Ravens last Sunday. It was an extremely physical game. The Rams looked like the superior team. But now the Rams are in the favorite's role against a rested Washington team that finally had its bye week. The Commanders desperately needed to rest and regroup having lost four in a row. It's one of many unfair things about the NFL that some teams had to wait until Week 14 to get their bye.
The Commanders are horrible on defense especially in pass coverage. However, they have skill position talent and quarterback Sam Howell is resilient and resourceful. He can keep the Commanders in this contest against a below-average Los Angeles defense that has just 11 takeaways, third-lowest in the league.
The Rams host the Saints this coming Thursday in what shapes up to be a tougher game and more meaningful in their playoff chase. So this matchup looms as a letdown spot.
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