Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-29-21 | Iowa +2 v. Illinois | 75-80 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
Iowa is the better team in my view and Illinois' home-court advantage doesn't make up for that. The Hawkeyes may have the best big man in the country, too, in 6-foot-11 Luka Garza. He's leading the Big Ten in scoring at 26.9 points while connecting on 61 percent of his shots from the floor. Illinois has an excellent big man, Kofi Cockburn. But Garza trumps him. The Hawkeyes enter this matchup well-rested and highly motivated having not played for eight days since an 81-69 home loss to Indiana. Iowa was a 10-point favorite in that game. Even with that defeat, the Hawkeyes still have covered 15 of their last 21 games.
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01-29-21 | Pacers v. Hornets +3.5 | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
I quickly glance past those rare sports when the Hornets are favored. But when they are underdogs, I take notice. Charlotte is one of those NBA teams nobody cares about, or respects, but can earn you money in the right spot. That spot is taking points. They are 14-5-1 ATS the past 20 times as underdogs. This is short revenge for the Hornets. They lost 116-106 as 3-point home 'dogs to the Pacers two days ago. Charlotte shot 41 percent from the floor in that defeat. Indiana made 51 percent of its field goals. Doug McDermott had a monster game for Indiana shooting 12-of-22 from the field while scoring 28 points. That was unexpected. McDermott averages 13 points and is a career 46.7 percent shooter from the floor.
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01-29-21 | Hawks v. Wizards +4 | 116-100 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
I don't trust the Hawks as road favorites. The Wizards finally are getting up to speed physically with Davis Bertans, Rui Hachimura and Moritz Wagner all coming off COVID-19 protocols. Russell Westbrook also is ready after being rested during the Wizards' 124-106 road loss to the Pelicans this past Wednesday. Star guard Bradley Beal expressed his disappointment and anger with that defeat, which was Washington's third loss in a row and dropped its record to 3-11. That's the worst mark in the NBA and an embarrassment for the Wizards. I'm expecting an all-out effort from the Wizards, who haven't hosted a game since Jan. 11 when they upset the Suns, 128-107. Hachimura is an underrated key for Washington. The Wizards are 3-3 in games he has played. The Hawks just got through playing the Bucks, beating the Clippers at home and taking the Nets to overtime in a home loss this past Wednesday. After this road contest, the Hawks return home to take on the Lakers in their biggest Western Conference opponent matchup. The Hawks aren't nearly good enough to cover this spread if they don't produce a solid game, or if they suffer a letdown. Historically, Atlanta has not been good in this spot going 5-12-2 ATS the last 19 times when facing a foe with a winning percentage below .400.
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01-29-21 | Monmouth -3.5 v. Niagara | 77-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
Monmouth is on a 7-2-1 ATS run. The Hawks have won and covered their last four games. Power rating-wise, this game opened too short in my view. The Hawks have given up 64 points or fewer in three of their last four games. Niagara hasn't been playing as well losing three of its last four games while failing to cover in three of its past four games. Monmouth has a far stronger offense, outscoring Niagara by an average of 16 points per game. So I'm going to go ahead and lay what I believe is a value number. |
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01-28-21 | California v. Arizona State -7.5 | 68-72 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm seeing a buy sign on Arizona State in this spot as the Sun Devils hopefully are past their COVID-19 issues that have pushed their season off track. Back in early December, the Sun Devils traveled to Berkley, Calif., and defeated California, 70-62, as 6 1/2-point favorites. ASU's star guard Remy Martin scored 22 points in that game. Since that matchup, however, the Sun Devils had four postponements and one cancellation due to the pandemic. They are just rounding into shape. Arizona State threw a scare into 12-3 Arizona last Thursday losing, 84-82, on a tip-in at the buzzer. This is a massive circle-the-wagons game for the Sun Devils, who have dropped six in a row. California has failed to cover in 15 of its last 20 road contests. I see this as the spot where Arizona State gets right.
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01-28-21 | Morehead State v. Jacksonville State -4.5 | 85-66 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm going to step in against Morehead State, which has won seven in a row. I don't trust the Eagles' offense on the road. Morehead State ranks 295th in scoring at 65.6 points a game. Jacksonville State averages nine points more per game than Morehead State. The Gamecocks also have been playing well defeating Murray State and Austin Peay in their last two games. Both of those were road contests and the Gamecocks were underdogs. The Gamecocks are averaging 84 points during their last three games. The teams met on Jan. 9 and Morehead State escaped with a 56-55 win as a 3-point home 'dog. Jacksonville State shot just 33 percent from the floor in that game while missing 17 of 23 shots from beyond the arc. Morehead State shot 40 percent from the floor in its narrow win. So the Gamecocks have revenge as added incentive.
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01-27-21 | Utah State -6 v. UNLV | Top | 83-74 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
Utah State has the second-best league record in the Mountain West Conference at 9-2. The Aggies have covered nine of their past 11 games. But one of those losses and non-covers occurred two days ago against UNLV. The Aggies didn't play well and lost, 59-56, as six-point road favorites to the Rebels. Now Utah State has rapid revenge. UNLV has a short bench. The Rebels primarily use just six players. They had four players log 34 minutes or more in their Monday victory against Utah State. The Aggies should dominate the boards with 7-footer Neemius Queta, one of the best defensive centers in the country. Utah State ranks 15th in the country in defense holding foes to 61 points a game. Neither team shot well on Monday. But the Aggies' numbers were stunningly bad - 33 percent from the floor and just 5-of-22 from 3-point range. UNLV, by contrast, hit 13 of 30 3-pointers. Expect Utah State to play much better. |
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01-26-21 | Sharks v. Avalanche -1.5 | 3-7 | Win | 113 | 17 h 37 m | Show | |
The last time the Avalanche were home they buried the Blues, 8-0. Now I don't expect Colorado to beat San Jose by eight goals, but I do believe the Avalanche will win this game by multiple goals. Colorado fell 3-1 on the road to the Ducks this past Sunday. That was a frustrating defeat for the Avalanche, who outshot Anaheim, 33-15, while running into hot goalie John Gibson. Now the Avalanche drop way down defensively in class hosting San Jose. The Sharks rank 27th defensively. This is their fourth game in six days so they have a heavy fatigue factor, which further erodes an already weak defense. San Jose has dropped eight of its 11 road contests even after upsetting Minnesota this past Sunday. |
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01-26-21 | Wizards v. Rockets -3.5 | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
The Rockets are far from elite since they no longer have James Harden, Russell Westbrook and Chris Paul. They may not even make the playoffs. But they still are a couple of levels higher than the Wizards especially given Washington's COVID-19 troubles. This is just the rusty Wizards' second game since Jan. 11 because of COVID issues. They were blown out by the Spurs, 121-101, two days ago in their last game. The 3-9 Wizards could be down four rotation players. They have new faces and haven't had nearly the needed practice time. This is a big motivation game for John Wall against his former team. He's not going to let the Rockets get lazy in this matchup. DeMarcus Cousins is coming off a monster 28-point, 17-rebound game against the Mavericks in a 133-108 victory. That was on Saturday. So the Rockets should be rested and prepared. It's an added bonus if Christian Wood is able to play for Houston. He's questionable with an ankle injury.
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01-25-21 | Arizona State v. Arizona -4.5 | 67-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
Arizona State has been a major disappointment in the Pac-12 with a 1-4 league mark and 4-7 overall record. Much of this can be blamed on COVID-19. The pandemic has played havoc with the Sun Devils' schedule causing four postponements and one cancellation. The Sun Devils, though, were up for this past Thursday's game against in-state and conference rival Arizona. They led the Wildcats by six points with 3:40 left before losing, 84-82, on a tip-in at the buzzer as 2 1/2-point home 'dogs. Now the scene shifts to Tucson where Arizona gets to host Arizona State. The Wildcats took the Sun Devils' best punch. Arizona State wasn't happy about the officiating, but it got to shoot 12 more free throws than Arizona. The Sun Devils also made 11 of 21 3-point shots for 52 percent. Arizona also shot well from beyond the arc. But the Wildcats are much more proficient from 3-point range than the Sun Devils, who shoot 33.2 percent from there. The Wildcats are the superior team. They are 11-3 overall and 5-3 in the Pac-12. I don't see Arizona letting an 11-point lead slip like it did in the last meeting. I also don't envision the Sun Devils playing as well as they did on Thursday. ASU is 1-8 ATS following a loss and this last one was very tough to take. The Sun Devils also are just 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven road contests. |
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01-25-21 | Lakers v. Cavs +10.5 | 115-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
The Lakers haven't let their championship get to their heads. They are 13-4, tied with the Clippers for the best record in the NBA. LA has yet to lose on the road in nine away games. But this is the right spot to step in against the Lakers with the improved Cavaliers. LA is in the third game of a seven-game road swing. The Lakers beat the Bucks, 113-106, this past Thursday and followed that up with a 101-90 victory against the Bulls this past Saturday. Up next for the Lakers is a major challenge on Wednesday - the 76ers. They have the best record in the Eastern Conference at 12-5. So the Lakers are in-between a letdown spot and a look-ahead spot - all while laying double-digits. The Cavaliers suffered their own letdown on Sunday getting blasted, 141-103, by the Celtics in Boston. Cleveland entered that matchup having won three in a row, including consecutive victories against James Harden, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and the rest of the Nets. Cavs coach J.B. Bickerstaff pulled his starters early in the Boston debacle. None of the Cavaliers' key players - Andre Drummond, Collin Sexton, Larry Nance Jr. and Cedi Osman - logged more than 18 minutes in the Celtics loss. They should be highly motivated for this matchup, especially welcoming LeBron James back to Cleveland. The Cavaliers are 5-2 SU and ATS as home 'dogs this season. They are 8-8 on the season, yet hold little respect in the marketplace. They've upset the Nets twice and the 76ers. They can hang at home against the Lakers. |
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01-24-21 | Cavs v. Celtics -5.5 | 103-141 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
Nice job so far by J.B. Bickerstaff making the Cavaliers competitive this season. I will really tip my hat to Bickerstaff, though, if his Cavaliers can hang close in this matchup. Cleveland is riding high with a season-best three-game win streak with the last two victories coming against the Nets. Boston, on the other hand, is in circle-the-wagons mode with a season-worst three-game losing streak. This losing streak has coincided with the absence of Jayson Tatum due to COVID-19. There's a chance Boston gets Tatum back for this game. But if that doesn't happen, I still like the Celtics to cover this spread. Zero chance Boston takes Cleveland for granted even though it has won the past eight meetings while going 6-2 ATS the past eight times hosting the Cavaliers. There's a great deal of urgency for the Celtics not only to halt their losing skid, but also knowing they play seven of their next eight games on the road, including five games on the West Coast.
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01-24-21 | Bucs +4 v. Packers | Top | 31-26 | Win | 100 | 132 h 24 m | Show |
If there is one NFC team that matches up well to Green Bay and can beat the Packers it's the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay proved that back in Week 6 when it took apart the Packers, 38-10. The Buccaneers shut out the Packers for the final three quarters. It was Green Bay's worst game of the season by far. So what's happened since then? The Packers' defense has improved and Aaron Rodgers put that game behind him to have one of the most magnificent seasons in NFL history. The Packers have the league's No. 1 scoring offense, a good defense and home-field where the weather forecast is for temperatures in the 20s and around a 40 percent chance of snow. But the Buccaneers also have improved. They, too, are peaking at the right time. Tom Brady is in sync with his new offense and receivers. Davonte Adams gives Rodgers the best receiver on the field. But Brady has the four next best receivers with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski. Shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander can only lock up on one of Tampa Bay's trio of excellent wideouts. Tampa Bay has won six in a row. The Bucs haven't lost by more than a field goal in their last nine games. Cold January weather doesn't bother Brady. He's certainly experienced it. Tampa Bay is averaging 36.6 points in its last five games. The Buccaneers put up 30 and 31 points in their playoff victories against two outstanding defensive teams, Washington and New Orleans. Green Bay's defense had just 11 interceptions. The Buccaneers picked off Drew Brees three times last Sunday. The Buccaneers led the NFL in run defense holding foes to 80.6 rushing yards per game, 10 yards fewer than the NFL's second-best run defense, and now they could get back star nose tackle Vita Vea from injured reserve. He's expected to practice this week. The Packers couldn't run on Tampa Bay in their earlier meeting. Aaron Jones was held to 15 yards on 10 carries. Inside linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David also make this a tough game for Green Bay. Those two not only can pressure the quarterback, but they are outstanding in pass coverage. They were dominant in Tampa Bay's victory against the Packers. Not to take anything away from Green Bay's smashing win against the Rams last week, but Aaron Donald only was about 50 percent because of a rib injury. The Packers didn't even need to double team him. The Packers have proven vulnerable to power run teams. The 49ers exploited that weakness in the NFC title game last season and the Colts had that going for them in their victory against the Packers this season. Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette give the Buccaneers a pair of power runners and provide Brady with needed balance. While the Buccaneers have some of the best linebackers in the NFL, the Packers' linebackers are composed of free agents and middle-to-late round draft picks. Then there are special teams. Thus far the Packers have been able to cover up their weak punt and punt return teams. Green Bay ranks 30th in net punt average and 31st in punt returns. They also have a bad long snapper. These are areas that could bite the Packers now that they are playing their toughest opponents. |
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01-23-21 | Kings v. Blues -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 145 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
The Kings have opened with four tough games, two of which went into overtime. After hosting the Wild twice and Avalanche twice, the Kings take to the road for the first time this season. The road has not been kind to the Kings. They have lost 41 of their past 58 away contests. This is LA's third game, too, in five days. The Blues have been idle since Wednesday when they lost 2-1 at home to the Sharks in a shootout. The Blues are rested and anxious to put that defeat behind them. It's a bad spot for the Kings, fresh off their first win, 4-2, against Colorado two days ago. I can see the Blues winning by multiple goals.
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01-23-21 | 76ers v. Pistons +7 | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Impressive. That's the word coming to mind in reviewing how the 76ers beat the Celtics this past Wednesday and Friday. Both of those 76ers' victories came in Philadelphia. Now the 76ers travel to Detroit to face the Pistons in an obvious letdown spot. Philadelphia is not the same team on the road as it is at home. The 76ers were 12-26 SU on the road last season. They are 2-4 SU and ATS away from home this season with road losses to the Grizzlies and Hawks in their past two away games. The Pistons are hungry for a victory after blowing a 17-point lead against the Hawks this past Wednesday in an overtime loss and then falling by one point, 103-102, to the Rockets this past Friday. Detroit is capable of pulling the straight-up upset having already defeated the Heat, Celtics and much-improved Suns this season. This is the 76ers' third game in four days. So they might choose to rest, or limit, the minutes of superstar center Joel Embiid. Philadelphia is 15-34-2 (31 percent) in its last 51 away contests.
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01-23-21 | St. Mary's +3 v. San Francisco | 67-63 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
This has been a down season for St. Mary's, but the Gaels still are playing their trademark tough defense. Only 20 teams give up fewer points per game than St. Mary's, which surrenders an average of 61.8. The Gaels have owned San Francisco winning eight of the last 10 meetings, including the past three. The buy sign is back on the Gaels after they halted a three-game losing streak with a victory against Loyola-Marymount this past Thursday. Note that two of St. Mary's losses during this span occurred to BYU and top-ranked Gonzaga. St. Mary's is 13-5 ATS against opponents with a winning home mark. The Dons are coming off a blowout victory against Santa Clara. They are 0-5 ATS the past five times following a win.
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01-23-21 | McNeese State +3 v. Houston Baptist | 74-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
I see the wrong team being favored in this Southland Conference matchup. McNeese State is 6-8. The Cowboys are senior dominated. They rank seventh in the nation in scoring at 86.9, which is 14 points more per game than Houston Baptiste, which averages 72.5 points. Houston Baptiste is 2-11. The Huskies are 1-7 in their last eight games with their lone victory during this time frame coming in overtime. They are 7-18-1 ATS in their past 26 home games.
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01-23-21 | West Virginia v. Kansas State +11.5 | 69-47 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Kansas State hasn't been very good this season, but the Wildcats are getting healthier and they catch West Virginia at home at an opportunistic time. The Mountaineers haven't played in two weeks due to COVID-19 issues. They missed games against Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State. They've also had to miss a lot of practice time. West Virginia hasn't been a good road team either covering only three of its past 12 away matchups.
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01-23-21 | Kansas -1 v. Oklahoma | 68-75 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
Usually you pay a premium in order to back Kansas. Not this time, though. The marketplace is a little down on the Jayhawks because they've lost two in a row for the first time in two seasons. Those losses, though, came to second-ranked Baylor and to Oklahoma State, which is close to being a Top-25 team. Both defeats came on the road. This is a circle-the-wagons game for Kansas and the Jayhawks hold a big talent edge on Oklahoma. The Sooners have won two straight. Those were home victories against Kansas State and TCU. Those teams, along with Iowa State, have the worst conference records in the Big 12. The last time Oklahoma met an above .500 conference opponent was Kansas on Jan. 9. The Jayhawks shot poorly from 3-point range and the free throw line yet still beat Oklahoma, 63-59, although failing to cover as seven-point home favorites. Now the Jayhawks are basically being asked to just win the game in order to get the money. Kansas has covered 69 percent of the time during their past 67 games following a loss. They also are 11-1 ATS in their past 12 road contests versus an opponent with a winning home mark.
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01-22-21 | Thunder +13.5 v. Clippers | 106-120 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
The Clippers are on a great roll winning five in a row with the last three coming in blowout fashion - victories by at least 19 points. It's difficult for the Clippers to keep doing that especially when teams seem to take rest stops in pacing themselves for the long season and playoffs. Oklahoma City is at its best in this role as a road 'dog. The Thunder are 22-8 the past 30 times taking points on the road. This includes a 5-2 ATS mark in that role this season with straight-up victories versus the Nets, Magic, Knicks and Pelicans. The Thunder are off a terrible performance in a 119-101 road loss to Denver, however. That was on Tuesday. So they've had two full days to prepare for this one and get their respect back. The Thunder should have plenty of energy since this is only their third game in eight days. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the Thunder's best player. He'll have added motivation going against the Clippers, his former team.
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01-22-21 | Heat v. Raptors -2.5 | 81-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm going to play the Zig/Zag theory here after the Heat snapped Toronto's three-game winning streak with a 111-102 win two days ago. Miami has yet to string two straight covers together this season. They are 0-6 ATS following a point spread cover. The Raptors have short revenge and they face two games on the road against the Pacers after this one. The Heat remain short-handed minus Jimmy Butler, defensive ace Avery Bradley and reserve big man Meyers Leonard. They also could be without Tyler Herro, who has been bothered by a neck injury.
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01-22-21 | Celtics +5 v. 76ers | 110-122 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
I like the Celtics in this spot even if Jayson Tatum remains out due to COVID-19 protocols. It's a nice bonus if he's able to play. This is a monster rivalry. So my inclination is to grab the points. That's especially so in the case of the Celtics, who are 22-7 ATS the past 29 times as underdogs. Boston is this big of a 'dog because the 76ers are home and just defeated the Celtics, 117-109, this past Wednesday. The 76ers made 36 of 45 free throws in that game. Boston was 13 of 20 from the foul line. The Celtics were not happy with that free throw disparity. Joel Embiid shot more free throws than Boston did as a team. Embiid had a monster performance with 42 points and 10 rebounds. He's a great player. But the Celtics have the center depth and astute coaching of Brad Stevens to make adjustments. One bright spot for Boston in the loss to the 76ers was Kemba Walker looking good in his second game back from a knee injury. He scored 19 points and had good leg movement. |
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01-21-21 | Eastern Washington -3.5 v. Northern Colorado | 76-78 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 22 m | Show | |
Look for a strong bounce back from Eastern Washington after it lost 99-94 to Southern Utah as 5-point home favorites this past Saturday. The Eagles are in the argument for being the best team in the Big Sky Conference. Northern Colorado has failed to step up at home losing to Montana State and Idaho. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their lined home games this season. One factor for this could be extremely limited seat capacity, which negates some of their home-court edge. Eastern Washington has a balanced scoring attack with four players averaging between 11 and 16 points a game. The Eagles outscore the Bears by an average of nearly six points per game. The Eagles also have covered seven of their past eight away contests.
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01-21-21 | Wichita State +3 v. Memphis | 52-72 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 48 m | Show | |
Memphis has played just once since Dec. 29 and it lost, 58-57, to Tulsa this past Sunday. The Tigers have outstanding talent, but I'm far from sold on the coaching of Penny Hardaway. Memphis has failed to cover in its last seven games. Memphis was thought to be among the top two teams in the American Athletic Conference before the season, but the Tigers are 6-5 and 2-2 in league. Wichita State is 8-3 and 4-1 in the AAC. The Shockers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games and have a tremendous ATS road mark going 19-7-1 in their past 27 away contests. They have the perimeter defense to pull the outright upset ranking 12th in the nation in 3-point defense and they also rank in the top 20 in defensive field goal percentage.
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01-21-21 | San Jose State v. New Mexico -6 | 51-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
First, note this game is being played at Dixie State University in St. George, Utah. So technically it's not a true home game for New Mexico. The Lobos have been forced to travel and settle in various locations such as Las Vegas, Lubbock, Texas and St. George - their current home away from home - so they are far more familiar with this setting than San Jose State. Games are not being allowed in New Mexico due to COVID-19. All of this has made for a frustrating season for the 4-8 Lobos, who are 0-8 in the Mountain West Conference. Now, though, the Lobos draw a patsy in which to vent their frustrations. San Jose State is 2-10 and also 0-8 in the MWC. The Spartans turned around their football woes, but not their basketball ones. If you had gone against the Spartans in their last 60 games you would be winning at a 68 percent rate. New Mexico has been very good in this role going 7-1 ATS the past eight times versus foes with a win percentage below .400. The Lobos have many flaws, including lack of rebounding and committing too many turnovers. Better shooting would cure some of that and San Jose State has the worst defense in the MTW. The Spartans are one of the worst defensive teams not just in conference, but in the nation surrendering 86.3 points a game. New Mexico gives up 15 fewer points per game than the Spartans. |
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01-20-21 | Abilene Christian v. Sam Houston State +3.5 | 57-64 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
Sam Houston State has the best conference record in the Southland at 5-0. I'm not buying that Abilene Christian is better. Each team has 11 victories. Sam Houston State is 7-1 at home. The Bearkats average 82.8 points and have the best player on the court in Zach Nutall, who averages 20.4 points. Abilene Christian is one game above .500 on the road. The Wildcats average eight fewer points per game than Sam Houston State. Sam Houston State has covered in each of its last eight lined games. |
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01-20-21 | Tulsa +12 v. Houston | 59-86 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
OK, I get this is a monster revenge spot for eighth-ranked Houston. The Cougars suffered their lone loss, 65-64, on the road to Tulsa on Dec. 29. The Cougars have the No. 2 defense in the country surrendering just 56.5 points. But Tulsa is deserving of far more respect than this overpriced line. The Golden Hurricane rank 16th in the nation defensively allowing just 60.9 points a game. So obviously we have a very low total where points are going to be extremely hard to come by. Tulsa has the guard play and can score enough in the paint to keep things close. The Golden Hurricane bounced back after their annual road loss to Wichita State by beating Memphis as a short 'dog this past Sunday. That shows me they aren't a team to fall apart. Their defense will keep them in this game while their offense scores enough to keep them well within this inflated number.
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01-20-21 | Northwestern State v. Stephen F Austin -13.5 | 74-86 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Yes, this is a mismatch. The betting line reflects that. It just doesn't reflect that enough. Stephen F. Austin averages 81.7 points per game. The Lumberjacks have the second-best shooting percentage in the country at 53.5 percent. Northwestern State gives up 82.2 points per game, which ranks 336th in the nation. It's a big reason why the Demons are 2-13 on the season, including 1-10 on the road. The Lumberjacks come up with nearly 10 steals per game. They also are a strong rebounding team. Northwestern lacks firepower. The Demons don't have anyone who averages even 13 points a game and only two players average more than 10 points for them.
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01-20-21 | Nets v. Cavs +10.5 | 135-147 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
There is a strong possibility the Nets will have their three superstars - James Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving - playing together for the first time when they meet the Cavaliers today. Consider two things before jumping to the conclusion that the Nets are going to destroy the Cavaliers. No. 1: Irving hasn't played in 15 days. He's going to be rusty. Also it takes time for three players of that magnitude to get comfortable with each other on the court. This is what Nets coach Steve Nash said about that, "It's hard to build chemistry without playing, and we're not playing in practice. So the chemistry is going to be formed on the floor during games." Irving may be on a minutes restriction. It's doubtful those three mega stars are playing if Brooklyn does build a big lead leaving the back-door open for Cleveland. The teams meet again on Friday. No. 2: It's not getting nearly the publicity of Irving's return, but the Cavaliers are expecting to get back their injured starting backcourt of Collin Sexton and Darius Garland. Both went through full practice on Monday. Reserve guard Damyean Dotson has done a credible job filling in. Sexton is one of the more underrated players in the league averaging 25 points. Center Jarrett Allen and veteran Taurean Prince are set to make their Cleveland debuts. They were part of the Harden trade. Allen is having a good season averaging 11.2 points and 10.4 rebounds. He joins Andre Drummond, who is averaging a career-best 19.3 points and 15.8 rebounds. There's also the situational factor to consider. The Nets are in a letdown spot after a dramatic nationally televised two-point victory against the Bucks two nights ago. The Nets were underdogs against the Bucks. Brooklyn is 2-6 ATS the past eight times it has been favored.
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01-19-21 | Thunder +10 v. Nuggets | 101-119 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
The Nuggets have captured the Northwest Division each of the past two seasons. They reached the Western Conference finals last season. But Denver is off to a 6-7 start this season as their roster composition is much different from last year. The Nuggets also are missing a key cog with breakout star Michael Porter sidelined because of COVID-19 protocols. So right now the Nuggets shouldn't be laying double-digits to a feisty underdog such as Oklahoma City. The Thunder have excelled in this exact role - road 'dogs. Oklahoma City is 22-7 ATS the past 29 times taking road points for a winning percentage of 76 percent. The Thunder are 5-1 ATS as away 'dogs this season with straight-up victories against the Nets, Magic, Knicks and Pelicans in this role. The Thunder should be well-rested and prepared having last played this past Friday as their Sunday game against the 76ers was postponed due to contact tracing issues with Philadelphia. |
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01-19-21 | Seton Hall +10 v. Villanova | Top | 74-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
Seton Hall hasn't played since defeating DePaul 10 days ago. But that's nothing compared to Villanova. The Wildcats haven't seen action in 27 days due to COVID-19. Villanova only was able to start practicing a few days ago and then for a limited time. They have several players questionable for this game, including fourth-leading scorer, guard Caleb Daniels. It would be somewhat surprising if the Wildcats weren't at least somewhat rusty. The Pirates have been turning it up winning eight of their last 10 games. They have the frontcourt to hang against Villanova with Sandro Mamukelashvili and Tyrese Samuel. Seton Hall has proven itself on the road posting upset wins against Penn State, Marquette and Xavier. Villanova has only covered one of its last eight home games. |
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01-18-21 | Grambling State v. Prairie View A&M -4.5 | 50-59 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
Prairie View A&M has only played six games. But the Panthers' last three games were against major conference foes Louisville, Washington State and TCU. Before meeting those schools, the Panthers defeated Evansville of the well-respected Missouri Valley Conference. The Panthers are 5-1 ATS on the season. Grambling State isn't that good. The Tigers lack highly skilled ballhandlers, which makes them vulnerable to Prairie View A&M's defensive pressure. |
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01-18-21 | The Citadel +13.5 v. NC-Greensboro | 73-87 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm going to take this many points with The Citadel, who average 93.3 points a game. That's No. 2 in the nation. The Bulldogs also are No. 2 in the country in 3-point shooting percentage at 43.1 percent. UNC Greensboro, by contrast, ranks 308th in field goal percentage and is 329th in 3-point shooting at 28.2 percent. The Spartans are not a strong defensive rebounding team so the Bulldogs could be getting second chance points, too. The Spartans have failed to cover in seven of their last eight home contests. |
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01-18-21 | VMI +7.5 v. East Tennessee State | 81-92 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
VMI averages 23 more points per game than East Tennessee State. The Keydets have produced an average of 90.6 points during their last three games. They have a standout senior guard in Greg Parham, who averages 18.4 points. I certainly believe the Keydets can hang in against East Tennessee State, which has yielded at least 78 points in three of its last four games. The Buccaneers also commit around 16 turnovers per game. VMI is the fifth-best free throw shooting team in the country, too, making 82.1 percent of its free throws. |
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01-17-21 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 57 m | Show |
I've never bought into that cliche of it's tough to beat a team three times in a season. New Orleans beat Tampa Bay, 34-20, opening week and defeated the Buccaneers far worse in Tampa, 38-3, in Week 9 when Tom Brady was more in sync with his new team. Brady had a 2-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those losses to the Saints. Truth be told, Brady hasn't been that sharp when taking on strong defenses such as New Orleans. The Saints could have the hottest defense during the second half of the season. They've held seven of their last 10 foes to 16 points or fewer. New Orleans defense only had to be on the field for 21 minutes against the Bears last week. I like the Saints' defensive line, perhaps the deepest in the league, to win the battle of the trenches especially with the Buccaneers losing guard Alex Cappa to an ankle injury. Brady doesn't have the mobility to escape a strong pass rush, which the Saints can generate without blitzes. Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU and ATS against playoff teams. The Saints are the steadier team with a highly-efficient offense and the best playmaker on the field in Alvin Kamara. Drew Brees has his top wideouts healthy again, including Michael Thomas. New Orleans has home-field, far more postseason experience than Tampa Bay and the built-in confidence of two previous lopsided victories. |
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01-17-21 | Memphis v. Tulsa +2 | 57-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
Tulsa destroyed Memphis, 80-40, last Jan. 22. The Tigers had their opportunity to gain revenge at home when they hosted the Golden Hurricane on Dec. 21 and lost again, 56-49. Now the Tigers will try to beat Tulsa on the road having not played since Dec. 29 because of three straight games postponed due to COVID. Tulsa had been playing well with six consecutive victories and covers in each of their last five lined games. But the Golden Hurricane couldn't overcome their road jinx against Wichita State in their last game, getting hammered, 72-53, this past Wednesday. I see the Golden Hurricane bouncing back at home against a foe that has not been able to beat them. Tulsa has covered 10 of its last 14 home games.
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01-17-21 | Western Kentucky +2.5 v. Marshall | 69-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Western Kentucky came through on Friday beating Marshall, 81-73, as 4 1/2-point home favorites. Now the Hilltoppers go on the road against Marshall and are now underdogs. I don't think Marshall is the better team. So I'll accept these points. Western Kentucky surrenders fewer points per game than Marshall. The Hilltoppers rank sixth in the nation in free throw percentage at 80.5 percent. Free throws were the big story in Friday's game. The Hilltoppers made 19 of 21 while Marshall hit two of five. Why such a large free throw discrepancy? Did Marshall get homered? I don't know, but it's just another plus in the Hilltoppers' favor that they get to the free throw line far more than Marshall - and they rarely miss when they do get there.
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01-17-21 | Hofstra v. Delaware +3 | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Delaware defeated Hofstra, 74-56, at home two days ago in a matchup of two middle-of-the-pack Colonial Athletic Association teams. I didn't find anything unusual in that victory. The Blue Hens have been playing better since conference play began. They outrebounded the Pride, 40-29. So I'll take points with them in a home 'dog role. The Blue Hens have given up just 64 points per game in four Colonial Athletic Association games.They rank first in the league in two-point defensive field goal percentage and No. 2 in overall defensive field goal percentage. Hofstra didn't shoot well against Delaware on Friday. But that shouldn't be surprising as Delaware has limited foes to 40.9 percent field goal shooting during its past five games. The Pride rank 225th in the country in field goal percentage at 43 percent.
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01-16-21 | Magic +9 v. Nets | 115-122 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
There's not a lot to like about Orlando right now. The Magic have lost four in a row, losing by an average margin of 26 points during this span. But I'm going to hold my nose and step in with the Magic taking this many points against what has to be a distracted Nets team. Between Kyrie Irving doing his space cadet routine again and James Harden's arrival, the Nets have been a major publicity item. Harden is expected to make his Nets debut here. He won't have Irving, who is out due to personal reasons. Harden won't know his new teammates, will be rusty and likely won't play a ton of minutes especially with the Nets hosting the Bucks in their next game on Monday. Prices on the Nets are up with Harden joining the squad. Everything is about Harden, but the Nets lost two key pieces in the multi-team trade to acquire hime. Caris LeVert, their best bench player and a legitimate quality starter, was sent to the Pacers. Jarrett Allen, their starting center, was set to the Cavaliers. Allen was emerging as a force in the middle. Now the Nets' lone big man is over-the-hill DeAndre Jordan. Orlando's strength is its two big men, Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon. They can pound the Nets inside. The Magic have covered five of the last six times against the Nets and have been a money-maker on the road going 13-6-1 (68 percent) during their past 20 away contests. |
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01-16-21 | NJIT +3 v. Albany | 75-83 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
I find value in this America East Conference matchup of two weak offenses where even one point matters. New Jersey Tech is 4-4. Albany is 1-5. The Great Danes haven't scored more than 66 points once this season. They also have covered only 28 percent of their past 42 home games.
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01-16-21 | Wofford v. Chattanooga +2 | 77-59 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 10 m | Show | |
There are 13 teams in the country with 11 or more wins. UT Chattanooga is one of them. The Mocs have been a hot spread team going back to last season compiling a 14-5-1 ATS mark in their last 20 lined contests. This includes an 8-2-1 ATS record versus above .500 foes. Wofford relies heavily on freshmen in contrast to Chattanooga, which is senior dominated. That could prove telling for the Terriers in this road matchup. Wofford has allowed 78 or more points in three of its last four games. The Mocs are averaging 79 points in their five Southern Conference games. |
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01-15-21 | Hawks +6 v. Jazz | 92-116 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
The Hawks have a talented roster with six good players. They are not a bottom-feeder. Trae Young could be heating up after hitting 9 of 19 shots from the floor in helping lead the Hawks past the 76ers, 112-94, at home this past Monday. That victory halted a four-game Atlanta losing streak and should give the Hawks a boost. Atlanta was supposed to play the Suns on the road two days ago. That game was postponed. So the Hawks will be well rested. They catch the Jazz playing at home for the first time in two weeks. The Jazz finished a successful six-game, 10-day road trip going 4-2 after blowing out the undermanned Cavaliers, 117-87, this past Tuesday. I'm not sure how much concentration and focus Utah will have because this is a weird scheduling spot. The Jazz have to fly to Denver for a Sunday matchup before coming back home to play the next six times. Utah is terrible as a home favorite going 3-13-2 ATS the past 18 times in that role. That includes an 0-2 SU, ATS mark in that role this season with losses to the Timberwolves and Suns. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its five road games this season. The Hawks also have covered four of the past five times against the Jazz.
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01-15-21 | Blues v. Avalanche -1.5 | 0-8 | Win | 172 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
I hold a lot of respect for the Blues. But I want the Avalanche going for me in this short home revenge spot after St. Louis defeated Colorado, 4-1, two days ago. The Avalanche didn't play well. They seemed to be caught off-guard by the Blues' heavy checking and physical ways failing to counter that. I believe the Avalanche will be better prepared and proper adjustments made. They should have some urgency at the thought of going down 0-2 in this shortened season with a pair of home losses especially with their next four games on the road. Colorado has a history of responding well to this type of loss going 7-0 the past seven times following a loss of three or more goals. It's going to be difficult for the Blues to keep the Avalanche's restored No. 1 line of Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen off the scoreboard. It wouldn't surprise me if the Blues faded in the third period with this being their second game in three days playing in high altitude.
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01-15-21 | Wisconsin v. Rutgers +3.5 | 60-54 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 20 m | Show | |
Points aren't going to come easily with these two defensive-minded, hard-nosed half-court teams. So I'm attracted to grabbing points. Wisconsin has had trouble when playing at Rutgers losing the past two times there, including, 72-65, last season. I don't want to overreact to the Badgers' embarrassing 23-point road loss to Michigan this past Tuesday. But the Badgers did trail by 40 points. A game like that can't help their confidence when playing on the road. Rutgers' guard Ron Harper Jr. is the leading scorer on the court averaging 20 points. The thing I really like about Harper is he has the 13th lowest individual turnover ratio in the country. The Scarlet Knights have the 10th lowest turnover rate in the nation. So Wisconsin shouldn't be getting any easy baskets.
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01-15-21 | Maple Leafs -1.5 v. Senators | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 10 m | Show | |
I think the highly-talented Maple Leafs have a shot to win the Stanley Cup this season. Toronto wasn't that sharp in its opener against Montreal, but came back from a two-goal deficit to nip the Canadiens in overtime. I expect the Maple Leafs to play better against the Senators. Toronto has the edge of already having played a game - not to mention a huge advantage in talent - while Ottawa is making its season debut. The Senators were the second-worst team in the league last season. The Senators are breaking in many new faces and without preseason they likely will start slow.
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01-15-21 | Blackhawks v. Lightning -1.5 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
The defending Stanley Cup Lightning are an elite tier team, while the Blackhawks rank among the worst teams. This was evident in Wednesday's opener won by the Lightning, 5-1. The score could have been even more lopsided but Blackhawks goalie Malcolm Subban made a couple of great saves. Tampa Bay dominated that game. I don't see anything changing. The Blackhawks are inexperienced, weak in net and really missing the presence of sidelined team captain Jonathan Toews. The Lightning have beaten the Blackhawks in nine of their past 10 regular-season meetings. The chances of the Lightning letting down are lessened by the heavy reduction of games this season, making each matchup important. Tampa Bay doesn't have to play an "A" game to defeat the Blackhawks by multiple goals.
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01-15-21 | Bowling Green +4.5 v. Buffalo | Top | 76-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
I'm surprised the line is this high as Bowling Green was the preseason pick to win the Mid-American Conference this season. I think the oddsmaker is underrating the Falcons based on them coming off an 88-64 home loss to Ball State this past Tuesday and Buffalo having defeated Bowling Green eight of the last nine times at home. Spectators haven't been allowed in Buffalo home games this season so that knocks down some of the Bulls' home-court edge. Bowling Green should be in bounce back mode. The Falcons had won their first five MAC games. They probably have the conference's top player, senior guard Justin Turner. He scored 33 points when Bowling Green defeated Buffalo, 86-78, back on Dec. 6.
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01-15-21 | Niagara v. Manhattan +2.5 | 49-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Neither team has much offense. But Manhattan is the better offensive rebounding team, forces more turnovers and has the best player on the court with Ant Nelson. The Jaspers also have dominated Niagara at home winning eight of the past nine times hosting the Purple Eagles, including the last five. Manhattan's average victory margin during these five home wins against Niagara is nine points. |
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01-14-21 | Northern Colorado -6 v. Idaho | 74-54 | Win | 100 | 18 h 18 m | Show | |
Northern Colorado is a middle-of-the-pack team in the Big Sky Conference that has owned Idaho beating them the past six times.The Bears' average winning margin in these games is 20 points. Everybody in the Big Sky beats Idaho. The Vandals are one of the worst teams in the country. They are winless in nine games and 0-6 in the Big Sky. Northern Colorado is 8-1 ATS the last nine times taking on foes with a winning percentage below 40 percent. Bodie Hume gives Northern Colorado the best player on the court. The Bears give up 10 points fewer per game than Idaho, which is 1-8 ATS in its past nine home contests. |
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01-13-21 | New Mexico v. Dixie State +3 | 72-63 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 24 m | Show | |
Maybe New Mexico's nickname should be changed from the Lobos to the Hobos. Headquartered in Albuquerque, New Mexico has been on the road much of the season because of COVID-19 issues. The Lobos had been temporarily living in a hotel and working out of rented gyms in the Lubbock area of West Texas. Now the Lobos are leaving Lubbock to set up shop for two weeks in St. George, Utah. Before they get settled there, though, it was decided they would play Dixie State, which is in its first year of Division I basketball. The Trailblazers are 4-2 competing in the Western Athletic Conference. One of those two losses came to top-ranked Gonzaga on the road, 112-67. The Trailblazers are motivated to knock off this Mountain West Conference opponent. New Mexico has gotten destroyed in Mountain West play losing all six of its games with its average loss being 25.5 points. The Lobos have failed to cover any of these six games. The Lobos have been one of the worst ATS road teams covering only 33 percent of their last 76 away games. New Mexico has 12 new players on its roster. They started the second half of their last game, an 82-46 loss to Utah State in Lubbock this past Friday, with four freshmen. Lobos coach Paul Weir might use this non-conference game to continue the team's youth movement. |
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01-13-21 | Blackhawks v. Lightning -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 110 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
Forget that the Blackhawks upset the Oilers in the playoffs last season. Chicago is in full rebuild mode. The Blackhawks are going to be especially vulnerable early in the year as they try to develop an identity and learn to play without injured center Jonathan Toews, their captain for the last 13 seasons. The defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning want to make an early statement. There's an urgency for them with the long-delayed season reduced to 56 regular season games. They can't screw around with a loss to such a lightly-regarded foe. Tampa Bay has beaten Chicago in eight of the last nine meetings. The Lightning won't be taking the Blackhawks lightly either after Chicago stunned Edmoton in the postseason. The Blackhawks lack the goaltending, power play and center depth minus Toews and Kirby Dach to hang close to Tampa Bay. |
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01-13-21 | Tulsa +4.5 v. Wichita State | Top | 53-72 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
Wichita State defeated Tulsa, 69-65, as a short road underdog a month ago. Tulsa wasn't playing that well back in mid-December breaking in new players and coming off a 10-day layoff caused by COVID-19. Tulsa had only one day of practice before that game and was out of sync. That was back then. Since that defeat to Wichita State, the Golden Hurricane have won six in a row covering all five of their lined games during this span. Tulsa has defeated four opponents picked to finish above them in the American Athletic Conference preseason poll. Tulsa is 3-0 in road games and has had a week to rest and prepare for this revenge matchup after its scheduled home game this past Saturday against Central Florida was postponed because of COVID issues on the UCF team. The Golden Hurricane have caused scoring problems for foes with their matchup zone defense. Only 13 teams give up fewer points per game than Tulsa, which also ranks fourth in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. Wichita State is not a good shooting team. The Shockers rank 290th in field goal percentage at 40.8 percent and are 224th in free throw percentage at 68.5 percent.
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01-13-21 | Rhode Island v. Massachusetts +3 | 78-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm not buying Rhode Island as a road favorite in this Atlantic-10 Conference grudge matchup. UMass is a dominant 20-6-1 ATS (77 percent) in its last 27 home contests. The Minutemen average 13 points more per game than Rhode Island. UMass also has the best player on the court in 6-foot-9 Tre Mitchell, who is averaging 20.7 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. Mitchell leads the Atlantic 10 in scoring while ranking ninth in rebounding. Mitchell averaged 31 points in two games against the Rams last season hitting 23 of 35 shots from the floor. UMass covered both of its games last season against Rhode Island, including a 64-63 loss as 3-point home 'dogs. Rhode Island is playing at a different venue for the fourth straight game. The Rams were supposed to get a seven-day break after their 83-68 upset road victory against VCU this past Saturday as this game originally was scheduled for Feb. 27. But it was moved to today.
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01-12-21 | Cal-Riverside +15 v. USC | Top | 62-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
Cal-Riverside is good enough to hang in against USC especially with the Trojans banged-up in the backcourt and in a flat spot. USC has played four straight Pac-12 games. This is its only remaining non-league regular season game. The Trojans just returned home after a satisfying Arizona trip beating Arizona this past Thursday and Arizona State this past Saturday. Letting down against a Big West Conference team is a real possibility for USC. Riverside has decent size and will play slow. The Highlanders should have plenty of energy and motivation stepping up in class. This is just their third game since Dec. 10. Riverside surrendered 88 points to Hawaii this past Friday. However, that was the Highlanders' first game in nearly a month. If you discount that matchup, the Highlanders are giving up an average of 57.8 points in their other five games. They own a 57-42 victory over Washington, a Pac-12 team, on a neutral court.
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01-12-21 | Jazz v. Cavs +11 | Top | 117-87 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Anytime you have Yogi Ferrell drawing minutes you know it's either a YMCA game, or an NBA team that has a serious injury situation and needs a body. Such is the case with the Cavaliers. But this spot sets up well for Cleveland so I'm taking double-digits with the home 'dog Cavaliers. Utah is playing its sixth road game in 10 days. The Jazz are 3-2 on their trip and off double-digit wins against the Bucks and Pistons. They conclude their road swing on Wednesday against the Wizards. The Jazz knows the Cavaliers are short-handed. This is a letdown and rest stop for them. Cleveland is minus Kevin Love, Dante Exum, Darius Garland and Kevin Porter. The Cavaliers also were minus Collin Sexton for a third straight game after he was a late scratch in Monday's 101-91 home loss to Memphis. It's a big plus if Sexton, an underrated guard having a tremendous season averaging 25.1 points, can play. But if he can't, I still like Cleveland to cover. The Cavaliers are playing at a snail's pace. They have an excellent big man, Andre Drummond, to execute this half-court style and frustrate Utah. Drummond gets some help on the frontcourt from Larry Nance Jr. An ugly, low-scoring matchup, which this game figures to be, is a plus for such a large-sized underdog.
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01-12-21 | Eastern Michigan +11 v. Toledo | 63-96 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
Toledo could be the best team in the Mid-American Conference. But I see a buy sign on Eastern Michigan after the Eagles upset Akron as 5 1/2-point home 'dogs, 71-59, this past Saturday. Akron averages nearly 80 points a game. So the Eagles should enter this matchup with confidence. They have a good backcourt with Bryce McBride and Yeikson Montero. They combine to average nearly 30 points a game. Toledo has a bigger game on deck when it plays at Akron on Sunday. Akron is tied for the second-best record in the MAC. The Rockets are 5-11 ATS against opponents with a losing record.
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01-12-21 | Miami-FL v. Boston College +3 | 62-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
Don't be scared off by Boston College's 2-9 record. The Eagles have played a murderous schedule and are in circle-the-wagons mode to halt a four-game losing streak and win their first ACC game of the season. This is their chance at home before going on the road for consecutive away contests. The Eagles lost to Duke by one point. Fell in overtime to Minnesota. Led Villanova by nine points before losing. Boston College lost 61-49 to Virginia this past Saturday. Wynston Tabbs, BC's leading scorer, was held scoreless in the loss to Virginia going 0-for-9 from the floor. Miami gives up eight points more per game than Virginia. Miami is a terrible 3-point shooting team and below average in free throw shooting. The Hurricanes could be without their starting backcourt, too. Chris Lykes, who led Miami in scoring last season, has been out with an ankle injury and Kameron McGusty is questionable with a hamstring injury.
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01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama -8 | Top | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 129 h 9 m | Show |
Ohio State has its worst defense of recent years especially in the secondary. Alabama has its most explosive offense ever, which is saying a lot. This combination is enough for the Crimson Tide to defeat the Buckeyes by double-digits and cover the spread. Yes, the Buckeyes have an explosive offense, too. I would take Justin Fields over Alabama QB Mac Jones. The Crimson Tide's defense doesn't have as many dominant players as in the past few years, but their defense still is more talented than Clemson's in the line and secondary. So they are going to get some stops against Ohio State. I don't see Ohio State slowing down Alabama at all. Jones, running back Najee Harris and wide receiver DeVonta Smith were all Heisman Trophy finalists with Smith capturing the award. Smith caught 105 passes for 1,641 yards and 20 TD's. I've watched Alabama football since the days of Joe Namath being under center and I've never seen a Crimson Tide wide receiver have the season Smith had. Oh, yes, Alabama also has the best offensive line in college football even without injured stud center Landon Dickerson. This group is in the discussion for being the greatest O-line in Alabama history. Ohio State ranked just 56th in fewest yards per play and that was playing an easier schedule than Alabama. Just last year the Buckeyes ranked first in that category showing what a drop their defense has experienced this season.
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01-11-21 | Loyola-Chicago -6.5 v. Indiana State | 58-48 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Indiana State upset Loyola of Chicago, 76-71, as 8-point home 'dogs on Sunday. Loyola, which ranks eighth in the country in field goal percentage and 11th in 3-point percentage, had an off-shooting game. The Ramblers shot 43 percent from the field and missed 18 of 27 3-point shots. Indiana State, which ranks 256th in field goal percentage and 200th in 3-point percentage, shot 44 percent from the floor and made 8 of 18 3-pointers. The Sycamores received 31 points from Tyreke Key, which is 16 points above his season scoring average. The Ramblers had won and covered their previous three games. I see them bouncing back in this short revenge spot. I expect them to shoot more like their normal selves while Key comes back to Earth. |
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01-10-21 | Browns v. Steelers -5.5 | 48-37 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 51 m | Show | |
Despite holding out eight starters, including Ben Roethlisberger, T.J. Watt and center Maurkice Pouncey, the Steelers nearly upset the Browns on the road this past Sunday losing 24-22 when Mason Rudolph threw an incomplete pass on a game-tying two point conversion try with 1:22 to play. Now the Steelers are rested and host the Browns, who they have beaten 17 straight times at home. This includes a 38-7 beatdown of the Browns back in October. Cleveland hasn't made the playoffs since 2002. Pittsburgh is far healthier than the Browns, who are dealing with multiple COVID issues. Denzel Ward, the Browns' best cornerback, has been sidelined with COVID. Head coach Kevin Stefanski won't be able to coach the game because of COVID. Olivier Vernon, the Browns' second-best pass rusher, is out after tearing his Achilles in Week 17. I question the Browns' maturity level and now their coaching without Stefanski. The Steelers have a far better defense than the Browns. I also trust Roethlisberger far more than Baker Mayfield, especially playing at Heinz Field where his lifetime splits have been far better at home than on the road. Pittsburgh led the NFL with 56 sacks. Watt is your probable Defensive Player of the Year after leading the NFL with 15 sacks. The Steelers also had 27 takeaways, second-most in the league, and gave up the third-fewest points at 19.5 per game. The line on this game has gone up. But I see the Steelers winning by at least a touchdown so it's worth getting involved.
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01-10-21 | Bears v. Saints -9.5 | Top | 9-21 | Win | 100 | 127 h 14 m | Show |
The Bears couldn't do it at home last Sunday against the Packers.They weren't good enough. They aren't good enough to stay close either to the Saints. Chicago made the playoffs only because the league allowed one extra wild card berth this season. The Bears are who they are - an 8-8 team with a single victory against a playoff team. That was by one point against the Buccaneers when they hosted Tampa Bay in Week 5 on Thursday night. The Buccaneers weren't fully in sync then and 43-year-old Tom Brady had to play on a short week. Chicago's defense has regressed to just being slightly above average at best. I'm far from sold on the Bears' offense. Mitchell Trubisky was able to put up excellent numbers during the last quarter of the season because his opponents were the Lions, Texans, Vikings and Jaguars. Those are all bottom-six defenses. The Bears went 2-4 in their North Division. They were lucky to split with the Vikings and Lions, both of whom had terrible seasons. New Orleans swept its South Division, which was more competitive top-to-bottom than the NFC North. The Saints don't have any glaring weaknesses. They scored the fifth-most points and gave up the fifth-fewest points. The Saints have the best shot of any team in the NFC to take down the Packers and capture the NFC Conference championship. The Saints caught a huge break that this game is on Sunday. That extra day means Alvin Kamara will be eligible if he passes COVID protocols. The Saints also expect to get back Michael Thomas. He's an elite wide receiver. New Orleans still averaged 31.8 points in nine games without Thomas. I believe this will be Drew Brees' final season. The Saints really want to win the Super Bowl to close out his era. New Orleans is going to be highly motivated and likely to pour it on the overmatched Bears because of previous postseason failures that were caused in heart-breaking fashion. The Bears are this far on house money. It's house money they didn't earn, or deserve. Deep inside they know that after their Week 17 failure against the Packers. The Bears lack the quarterback, confidence and elite defense to hang with New Orleans. |
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01-10-21 | Radford v. Charleston Southern +3.5 | 68-48 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
I'm not convinced Radford should be laying road points despite the Highlanders beating Charleston Southern, 79-64. Radford shot 54 percent from the floor and shot eight more free throws than the Buccaneers, who shot just 37 percent from the floor. Radford plays good defense, but the Highlanders only average 66 points. That's the same number of points Charleston Southern scores per game. Charleston Southern has the best player on the court in Phlandrous Fleming Jr. He averages 20 points a game. Nobody on Radford even averages 12 points a game. |
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01-10-21 | Morgan State +3 v. Norfolk State | 85-89 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
Morgan State has won and covered all five of its board games this season. This includes a 78-74 victory against Norfolk State yesterday. The Bears shot just 38 percent from the field, but held Norfolk State to 34.9 percent shooting from the floor. It was the fourth consecutive time the 'dog has covered in this series. Morgan State has a better record than Norfolk State and has covered the past seven times as a road 'dog. The Bears have outscored their opponents by an average of seven points during their last seven road contests. |
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01-10-21 | Hartford +4 v. UMass Lowell | 75-58 | Win | 100 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
Hartford has a better record than UMass Lowell and short revenge for a 71-62 loss on Saturday. Lowell shot 53.2 percent from the floor in that victory and made 10 more free throws than Hartford, which shot 48 percent from the floor. Lowell's season shooting percentage from the field is 44.2 percent. Lowell is 5-11 ATS as a home favorite while Hartford has covered 10 of its past 14 road contests.
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01-09-21 | Hawks -4 v. Hornets | Top | 105-113 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
We're going to find out just how good Hawks coach Lloyd Pierce is with this game. These two teams just met this past Wednesday. The Hornets surprised the Hawks winning as six-point road 'dogs, 102-94. Trae Young had a bad game missing seven of nine shots from the floor and scoring only seven points, which is nearly 19 points below his season average. On the flip side, Gordon Hayward went off for a career-best 44 points. From a situational perspective, this game sets up well for the Hawks. They have been idle for the past two days since that loss to the Hornets. The Hawks have short revenge and are in stop-the-pain mode trying to halt a three-game losing streak after opening the season 4-1. Charlotte just got finished playing its fourth road game in six days, upsetting the Pelicans, 118-110, on Friday night. This will be the Hornets' first home game in eight days, so that's a bad spot for them from a concentration level. It's also the Hornets' sixth game in nine days so Charlotte carries a huge negative fatigue factor. Young is the most talented player on the court. John Collins the best big man. De'Andre Hunter is an underrated player. Atlanta has more firepower than Charlotte. Pierce has all these factors in his favor, but he has to show the coaching acumen to properly prepare the Hawks for what the Hornets did right in the earlier meeting two days ago, which was press and effectively switch defenses. Hayward is a nice complimentary player. Emphasize the word complimentary. There's no way he should score 44 points against any self-respecting NBA team. So the Hawks obviously have to play better defense on him. The oddsmaker believes the Hawks are the superior team making them road chalk. I do, too, but they have to prove it, especially the coach. I believe they will. |
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01-09-21 | Lafayette +3 v. Bucknell | 83-60 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
Sometimes you really have to dig to find a false favorite. When found it usually is a home team from a small conference that fits the bill. Bucknell opened a favorite against Lafayette in this Patriot League matchup. Bingo. The 0-2 Bisons shoot 35.1 percent from the floor and average 64.5 points a game. Lafayette averages 85.5 points a game and shoots 45 percent from the field. Lafayette has been a proven road money-maker going 19-7-1 ATS the past 27 times in that role.
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01-09-21 | Delaware +2.5 v. William & Mary | 62-67 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
Neither team shoots well. Each team is averaging just 65 points a game. Delaware, however, gives up five fewer points per game than the Tribe. William & Mary is on a four-game losing streak and has yet to win a game in the Colonial Athletic Association this season. The Tribe are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight home games. I think Delaware is the superior team. So getting points is a bonus.
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01-09-21 | Idaho State v. Northern Arizona +1.5 | 76-70 | Loss | -118 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
These are two bad Big Sky Conference teams. Northern Arizona hosted Idaho State just two days ago and was a 3-point favorite. The Lumberjacks lost, 73-69. So now Northern Arizona finds itself opening as a home 'dog. I'm not buying it. The Lumberjacks have short home revenge and the best player on the court, Cameron Shelton. He averages 21.6 points and 5.5 rebounds. Idaho State beat Northern Arizona because it shot 46 percent from the floor and made 22 of 26 free throws. Northern Arizona shot 40 percent from the field and shot 17 free throws, nine fewer than Idaho State. The Lumberjacks aren't a good shooting team, but I see them getting their revenge.
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01-09-21 | Texas +2 v. West Virginia | 72-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
Shaka Smart has something going at Texas. The Longhorns are 9-1 and just beat Iowa State, 78-72, at home in a letdown spot this past Tuesday following a monster 25-point road victory against Kansas. Even though West Virginia is the home team, the Mountaineers still could be gasping for breath after coming from 19 points down with 11 minutes to play to pull out an 87-84 road victory against Oklahoma State this past Monday. Making the situation more difficult for the Mountaineers is they are dealing with a flu bug and Derek Culver, their leading rebounder and second-leading scorer, is banged-up.
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01-08-21 | Suns v. Pistons +7.5 | Top | 105-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
Now that the line has gotten past 7 at some sportsbooks and word has come out that Derrick Rose is OK to play, I'm going to get involved with the home underdog Pistons. Phoenix has continued to play well this season after going unbeaten in the Orlando bubble to finish last season. The Suns are 6-2. The timing isn't the best for Phoenix in this matchup, though. The Suns just defeated the Raptors, 123-115, at home two days ago. They play at Indiana on Saturday. That's a more challenging game for them so they don't want to leave everything on the floor in this matchup. But can the 1-7 Pistons hold up their end and make this a close game? I believe they can. It's a stop-the-pain game for Detroit, which is on a three-game losing streak and just suffered a 130-115 loss to the Bucks in a game where Milwaukee scored 82 first-half points. Rose went out in the second quarter after banging his knee. He didn't return. But he is expected to play today as the injury was not serious. This is important not only because Rose still remains an effective player averaging 15.3 points and 5.4 assists in around 24 minutes per game, but also because Detroit's starting point guard, rookie Killian Hayes, is out after suffering a torn labrum in his right hip. The Pistons would be thin and inexperienced in the backcourt without Rose. The Suns aren't a team to back when laying a large number. Phoenix ranks only 20th in scoring averaging 109.8 points per game. Detroit, by contrast, actually averages more points a game at 111.5. The Pistons have been rough on the Suns, too, winning both games last season and covering 13 of the last 16 at home versus Phoenix. |
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01-08-21 | Lipscomb +2.5 v. Bellarmine | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
Wrong team favored. Lipscomb was the preseason favorite to win the Atlantic Sun Conference this season. So I don't see why Bellarmine should be even a slight favorite even being home. Bellarmine's 90-38 victory over some school named Mount St. Joseph in its last game does not impress. The Bisons have the league's preseason Player of the Year in center Ahsan Asadullah. Lipscomb is coming off a split against Liberty, which has the best overall record in the Atlantic Sun. That's far stronger competition than Mount St. Joseph.
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01-08-21 | Central Connecticut State v. Bryant -12.5 | Top | 64-76 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
Bryant buried Central Connecticut State on Thursday, 93-68. That score wasn't some fluke. Bryant is far superior. This class difference showed up on the boards and on the scoreboard. The Bulldogs put up 93 points, which is no big deal. They average 92.3 points per game, which is third-best in the nation. They have by far the best record in the Northeast Conference at 8-2, going 8-1 ATEarn a tidy profit before even sitting down for Friday dinner courtesy of basketball guru Stephen Nover, who was 2-0 on his Thursday college basketball plays pushing his three-year CBB mark to 146-105-5! Stephen has feasted on mispriced small conference matchups just like this one. This is his strongest small conference early-game play this season - and it's specially discounted! So take advantage and score a big reward. S in their lined games. CCS is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine tries as an underdog. The Blue Devils average 18 fewer points per game than Bryant. |
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01-07-21 | Mt. St. Mary's v. St Francis NY +2 | 55-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
I have found a wrong favorite in a Northeast Conference game. I don't believe Mount St. Mary's should be road chalk aaginst St. Francis of Brooklyn. St. Francis is a terrible defensive team. But the Terriers also outscore Mount St. Mary's by more than 16 points per game. The Mountaineers average only 61.4 points. The Terriers are 9-4 ATS the last 13 times as a home 'dog. Mount St. Mary's is 2-7-1 ATS in its past 10 road contests and 1-5 ATS the last six times as an away favorite. Mount St. Mary's also has had to deal with a tough COVID-19 situation missing nearly a month because of issues related to it. The Mountaineers haven't played since Dec. 8. St. Francis last played on Dec. 23 so it shouldn't be as rusty.
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01-06-21 | Bulls v. Kings -6.5 | Top | 124-128 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
Despite missing four players, including Lauri Markkanen, because of COVID reasons the Bulls upset the Trail Blazers, 111-108, as 9 1/2-point road 'dogs Tuesday night. Chicago had lost seven in a row to Portland. It was a tremendous gutty win for the Bulls. Chicago came from 20 points down to pull out the win. But that highly-satisfying victory sets up the Bulls for failure today. Chicago is 8-20 ATS following a straight-up victory. The Bulls have a much more high profile opponent after this game against Sacramento. Chicago meets the world champion Lakers on Friday. The Kings aren't going to lack motivation, nor take the Bulls lightly. After opening 3-1 with home victories against the Nuggets and Suns, the Kings concluded an 0-3 road trip with an embarrassing 137-106 loss to Golden State this past Monday. There's a chance the Kings get back potential rookie of the year candidate Tyrese Haliburton for this game. The No. 12 overall pick in the draft, Haliburton has put up excellent across-the-board numbers for the Kings while shooting 52.9 percent from the floor. He's missed the last two games with a wrist injury. I like the Kings even if Haliburton can't play. Sacramento is 10-4-1 ATS in its past 15 home contests. The Bulls, in addition to their letdown factor, carry a heavy fatigue rating and are dealing with a short bench due to COVID. This will be their fifth game in seven days, all at a different location.
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01-06-21 | Wizards v. 76ers -6.5 | 136-141 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
I find this line to be short. The 76ers are 6-1 - the best record in the NBA - and at this early stage could be the best, or second-best, team in the Eastern Conference. Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris are all playing at high levels. Newcomer Seth Curry has upgraded the 76ers' perimeter game, making Embiid even more effective. The Wizards have won two in a row after opening the season 0-5. Russell Westbrook makes Washington look better on paper. But I'm not sold. One of Washington's victories came against 2-5 Minnesota, which was missing its best player, Karl-Anthony Towns. Washington still hasn't made defensive progress ranking second-to-last in points allowed per game. The 76ers give up 19 fewer points per game than the Wizards. Then there is Philly's dominant home-court advantage. The 76ers have won 19 in a row at home. They are 9-2 ATS the last 11 times as home favorites. Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last five visits to Philadelphia.
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01-06-21 | Virginia Tech v. Louisville -4 | 71-73 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
Death, taxes and Louisville defeating Virginia Tech. The Cardinals have beaten Virginia Tech 16 straight times. Look for that streak to continue. Louisville is 5-0 at home. The Cardinals are playing well and have the shooters to take advantage of the Hokies' below-average 3-point defense. Virginia Tech hasn't played in more than a week because it's scheduled game against Virginia for this past Saturday was postponed because of COVID-19 issues on the Cavaliers' side. Not only will the Hokies be rusty, but this is their first game away from Blacksburg since Nov. 29 and first true road game. They've played seven of their nine games at home with the other two being at neutral sites. Virginia Tech has failed to cover in six of its past seven away matchups.
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01-05-21 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +9 | Top | 94-92 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
The Grizzlies' injury list is a long one - Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Justice Winslow and John Konchar. Morant and Jackson are the Grizzlies' two best players. So why get involved with the Grizzlies? Situation. It sets up well for Memphis plus the Grizzlies are getting reinforcements. This is the Lakers' fourth road game in seven days. The Lakers have won the three previous ones, including defeating the Grizzlies, 108-94, two days ago. The Lakers return to LA following this matchup to host the Spurs on Thursday. A letdown, lack of concentration and this being a rest stop all work against the Lakers in this spot. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, have short home revenge. Memphis was hanging in with LA this past Sunday trailing by only two points entering the fourth quarter before falling apart. The Lakers shot 19 free throws to the Grizzlies' eight in that game. So there could be an officiating adjustment to that free throw disparity in this game. Memphis isn't some bottom-feeder even without Morant and Jackson. The Grizzlies nearly made the postseason in the highly competitive Western Conference last season falling to Portland by four points in the play-in game. Jonas Valanciunas is a quality big man and Kyle Anderson is playing well. Key reserve De'Anthony Melton is available now after getting clearance from COVID-19 protocols. The Grizzlies also get Grayson Allen back from an ankle injury and signed Tim Frazier. Allen and Frazier provide needed backcourt depth. |
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01-05-21 | Florida +2.5 v. Alabama | Top | 71-86 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
The last time I got involved in a Florida basketball game was taking 3 points with the Gators on the road against Florida State back on Dec. 12. Things looked good for Florida early. The Gators were leading the Seminoles, 11-3, when Florida State called a time-out. It was at that point Keyontae Johnson, the Gators' star player and preseason pick for SEC Player of the Year honors, collapsed on the court. The Gators obviously were shaken as Johnson was taken to the hospital. They went on to lose, 83-71. Johnson was hospitalized for 10 days. Florida postponed its next four games. Johnson is back with the Gators, although he's not playing. He's helping coach the team. The Gators have played twice since Johnson's collapse beating Vanderbilt, 90-72, on the road and nipped LSU, 83-79, at home this past Saturday. So Florida knows first-hand about adversity this season. The Gators have regained their focus. They can beat Alabama on the road. The Crimson Tide are coming off a huge road win against seventh-ranked Tennessee from this past Saturday night. Alabama beat Tennessee, 71-63, as 10 1/2-point 'dogs. It was the Crimson Tide's first road victory versus a top-10 team in 16 years. So there could be a letdown factor for Alabama even though this is an important SEC battle. |
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01-04-21 | Pacers +1.5 v. Pelicans | 118-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
The Pelicans are a work-in-progress under new coach Stan Van Gundy. Their defense already appears improved - which wasn't a high bar to overcome - but their offense sometimes becomes too reliant on Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson. So this should be a good matchup for the Pacers. They also have a new coach, Nate Bjorkgren. Indiana remains scrappy, but the Pacers have become much more of a 3-point shooting team under Bjorkgren. They've have time now to adjust to the loss of forward T.J. Warren, who is out following foot surgery. The Pacers are off a frustrating 106-102 loss to the Knicks from Saturday. The Pelicans defeated the Raptors, 120-116, also on Saturday. That was a highly satisfying victory for the Pelicans.
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01-04-21 | Celtics v. Raptors -3.5 | Top | 126-114 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
Both teams have many kinks to work out during this early part of the season. But Toronto has playoff revenge after being eliminated by Boston in the second round of the playoffs. The Raptors are getting more used to their temporary Tampa home and draw the Celtics in a brutal situational spot. This is the Celtics' second consecutive game and fifth in seven days. Toronto still is playing strong defense ranking No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage. Nick Nurse is one of the few coaches who is at the level of Brad Stevens.
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01-04-21 | Cavs v. Magic -5 | 83-103 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Orlando is a team I'm usually more comfortable taking points with rather than laying. But I see this as a good spot for the Magic. The Magic look much improved. They opened 4-0, but then lost to the 76ers. No shame in that. The 76ers have the best record in the NBA at 5-1. But then the Magic lost 108-99 at home this past Saturday to rebuilding Oklahoma City. The Magic missed 20 of 28 shots from the floor in the fourth quarter. Many of these shots were easy and open looks. It was an extremely frustrating defeat for the Magic. Orlando is anxious to get back on track and is pointing to this matchup. The Magic swept all three meetings from Cleveland last season and are 7-3 ATS during their past 10 games versus the Cavaliers. They catch the Cavaliers off a satisfying 96-91 upset victory against the Hawks from two days ago.
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01-03-21 | UMKC +3.5 v. North Dakota | 77-53 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
These teams met on Saturday with North Dakota winning, 52-45. I can envision another low-scoring game so I'll take the points in this quick revenge setup. UMKC shot 35 percent from the floor, made 2 of 12 3-pointers and missed 7 of 14 free throws against North Dakota. The Roos on the season average 76.9 points, shoot 53.5 percent from the floor and make 57.3 percent of their free throws. This has come against inferior competition. But the Roos still should shoot much better in this rematch. North Dakota only averages 61 points on the season. The Fighting Hawks shoot 40.8 percent (286nd in the nation) from the floor and hit 28.3 percent (300th) of their 3-point shots. So they aren't a very good offensive team. They aren't very good at all being 2-8. They also got to shoot 29 free throws to UMKC's 14 on Saturday. Kansas City is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 road games. North Dakota is 2-7 ATS following a win.
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01-03-21 | Titans -7.5 v. Texans | 41-38 | Loss | -104 | 33 h 26 m | Show | |
Houston's season was finished before Halloween. Now the nightmarish 2020 year concludes for the Texans against Tennessee, one of only three teams in the NFL to average 30 points. The Texans' bottom-five defense isn't going to be able to stop a high-powered Titans squad that is in must-win mode. Houston not only lacks the run defense to contain Derrick Henry, but doesn't have the defensive backfield speed to keep Ryan Tannehill from picking it apart throwing to wide receiving studs A.J. Brown and Corey Davis. Henry has averaged 187 all-purpose yards with five TD's in his last three games against the Texans. Tannehill's numbers against Houston in the last three games are 67 percent completions, 8.7 YPA and an 8-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Titans were slowed down at Green Bay last week because of snowy conditions. That's not going to be the case here in Houston's temperature-controlled venue. Houston's morale has to be questioned. The Texans have lost four in a row, including falling, 37-31, to the Bengals at home last week. A Bengal offense devoid of Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd produced 540 yards against Houston. That's enough to cause serious chemistry and confidence issues for any defense. It's scary to think how many points the Titans can put up against the Texans. Deshaun Watson is pitted against that, expected by the oddsmaker to exchange enough points with the Titans to keep Houston's loss to around a touchdown. How? The Texans rank 30th in rushing. They are missing two of their three best wide receivers. Their tight ends are dreadful and their best blocker, left tackle Laremy Tunsil, is out with an ankle injury. The Titans' defense isn't very good, but it doesn't need to be very good to tee off on Watson since they are likely to be playing with a lead throughout. Oh, yes, Watson is banged-up with a sore elbow and arm. Even as clueless a coach as Romeo Crennel is, he has to realize he can't risk his franchise QB if the Titans should get way in front. So it wouldn't be shocking if Watson didn't even finish this game. |
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01-03-21 | Seahawks -6.5 v. 49ers | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -112 | 33 h 11 m | Show |
Look, I greatly respect the coaching staff of the 49ers especially Kyle Shanahan and defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. But the 49ers are out of gas both physically and mentally. It's difficult to keep a team together that misses the playoffs after reaching the Super Bowl the previous season and has the longest injury list in the league. San Francisco is 2-6 in its last eight games with every loss during this span coming by at least eight points. Seattle is coming on especially its defense, which has surrendered the fewest points in the league during the last seven weeks. The Seahawks draw third-string QB C.J. Beathard, who is 2-14 in his 16 NFL appearances. He has a career mark of 17 touchdowns and 23 turnovers while being sacked 43 times. Seattle has the most sacks in the NFL since Week 8. Superstar safety Jamal Adams already has set a single season sack mark for a safety. Aside from tight end George Kittle, Beathard doesn't have his top receiving weapons with Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel ruled out. San Francisco is missing some of its top offensive linemen, too, including left tackle Trent Williams. The 49ers' pop-gun, conservative ground-based attack isn't going to produce many points and will be helpless if the Seahawks jump to a big lead, which I anticipate. Seattle has held its past five foes to an average of 12.2 points. Defensively the 49ers not only are missing multiple linemen - as they have all season - but have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. Cornerbacks K'Waun Williams and spiritual leader and warrior Richard Sherman are out. Emmanuel Mosely is questionable. Russell Wilson fired 4 TD passes in the Seahawks' 37-27 Week 8 victory against San Francisco. The Seahawks still have an outside shot at earning the NFC's top seed. So they aren't going to lack incentive. |
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01-03-21 | Cardinals v. Rams +3 | 7-18 | Win | 100 | 26 h 22 m | Show | |
Sean McVay may have picked up a few critics since the Rams' Super Bowl loss to the Patriots two seasons ago. I'm not one of them. The Rams have a far better defense than the Cardinals and McVay had an entire week to prepare fill-in QB John Wolford and devise a suitable game plan. Losing Jared Goff is a negative. Goff, though, isn't an elite quarterback. He's slightly above average - and that's with a clean pocket and being in a warm-weather site. The Rams lose experience and downfield passing with the drop from Goff to Wolford. But they gain far more quarterback mobility. McVay is one of the top play-callers in the NFL. I'm confident he will put Wolford in a position to succeed. The Rams won't have their top wide receiver Cooper Kupp, or probably two of their three best running backs. They still provide plenty of receiving weapons for Wolford with Robert Woods, Josh Reynolds, underrated rookie Van Jefferson and one of the better tight end duos in the NFL, Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett. The Cardinals have sprung a leak with their run defense due in part to injuries. 49ers backup running back Jeff Wilson rushed for 183 yards against them last week. Arizona has permitted 5.2 yards per run during the past four games. Effective running by the Rams can set up Wolford. At best, the Cardinals' defense is mediocre. They rank 15th in scoring defense. LA's defense could be the best in the NFL ranking first in total yards and pass defense while giving up the third-fewest points at 19.3 per game. Kyler Murray needs to run and roam free for the Cardinals to have success. Murray is hampered by a lower-body injury. He also has to deal with the monstrous Aaron Donald, the NFC's sack leader with 13 1/2. Murry relies on the magnificent DeAndre Hopkins. However, Hopkins isn't 100 percent either and he has his own defensive demon to content with - shutdown cornerback Jalen Ramsey. So the outstanding Rams defense is well equipped to deal with the Cardinals' offensive strengths. Murry is 0-3 lifetime against the Rams, who have held him to a 57 percent completion rate, 5.8 YPA, a 5-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and only an average of 14 yards rushing per game. McVay has never lost to the Cardinals posting a 7-0 SU, 6-0-1 ATS record versus Arizona. The Rams have beaten the Cardinals by an average of three touchdowns. The Rams wouldn't need to win this game to earn a playoff spot if the Bears lose to the Packers. However, that game starts the same time as this matchup so the Rams will be assured of having their full focus and going all out. |
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01-03-21 | Steelers +10.5 v. Browns | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 31 h 33 m | Show | |
I get why the Browns are such heavy favorites. I just don't trust them even though the Steelers will be sitting a number of starters, including Ben Roethlisberger and T.J. Watt, who probably will be named Defensive Player of the Year. How proven and mature are the Browns in must-win spots when they are heavy chalk? How sharp is first-year Browns coach Kevin Stefanski when he had Baker Mayfield launch 53 passes against the Jets last week when his team was missing their top four wide receivers and had all inexperienced wideouts? How in sync will the Browns be having to deal with a heavy dose of COVID issues the past couple of weeks? As it is, the Browns will be minus their top cornerback, Denzel Ward, along with several other players due to COVID. Cleveland is expected to get back two key offensive linemen, Wyatt Teller and Jedrick Wills. But that's not a given. Wills was supposed to play last week, but was a last-minute scratch. The Steelers are still the Steelers, a well-coached team with a lot of pride that could earn the No. 2 seed in the AFC with a win and a Bills loss to the Dolphins. Pittsburgh is 22-8-2 ATS the past 32 times as an underdog for a long-term percentage of 73 percent in that role. Cleveland is 2-5 ATS the past seven times as favorites this season. Mason Rudolph proved to be a stiff when called upon last season. I joked that Myles Garrett made a huge mistake by trying to injure Rudolph knocking him out of the game. Rudolph, in his third season, is said to be improved. Certainly he's not going to lack motivation. If I were a member of the Steelers, I would take it as an insult that Stefanski named Garrett team captain for this game after Garrett's reprehensible helmet-hitting actions against Rudolph last season. These teams don't exactly love each other. Bottom line for the Browns is they need to win. But they don't need to win by double-digits. |
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01-02-21 | Cavs +7 v. Hawks | Top | 96-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
The Hawks look improved. But so do the 3-2 Cavaliers, who catch the Hawks in a letdown spot and carrying a high fatigue rating. Atlanta is coming off a satisfying 114-96 revenge victory against the Nets on the road Friday night. Brooklyn had nipped the Hawks in a wild 145-141 game on Wednesday in which Atlanta blew a late lead. So now the Hawks come home to Atlanta where they find the Cavaliers waiting for them. Cleveland should have its intensity up after consecutive losses to the Knicks and Pacers on Thursday. The Cavaliers had opened with three straight victories before these two setbacks. That was their best start in five years. Both defeats are humbling to the Cavaliers, who fell 95-86 to the Knicks and 119-99 to Indiana. I'm looking for Cleveland to bounce back in this spot. The Cavaliers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games going back to last season and also have covered seven of the past 10 times versus the Hawks in Atlanta. The Hawks are 3-9 ATS the last 12 times when playing without rest. This is their third game in four days and fourth in six days. The Hawks could be missing a pair of veterans. Rajon Rondo missed last night's game with a sore knee and sharpshooter Danilo Gallinari has been out with an ankle injury. Keep an eye on Hawks star Trae Young, who has been dealing with a sore calf.
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01-01-21 | Celtics v. Pistons +10 | Top | 93-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
Even with the regular season reduced from 82 to 72 games, elite teams such as Boston seek rest stops on its schedule. One such rest spot is today's game at Detroit against the 0-4 Pistons. The Celtics are coming off consecutive victories beating the Pacers on the road Tuesday and cruising past the short-handed Grizzlies at home on Wednesday. This marks the Celtics' fourth game in six days. The Pistons, by contrast, have been idle the past two days having last played on Tuesday.The Pistons aren't likely to have Blake Griffin, who is in the league's concussion protocol. Rookie point guard Killian Hayes probably is out, too. I'd rather have Hayes out since he's a work-in-progress for the rebuilding Pistons. This might mean giving more minutes to veteran Derrick Rose. It's a bonus if Griffin plays because I like the Pistons in this spot regardless if Griffin plays or sits. The Pistons have hung around in their games. They should have defeated the improved Cavaliers blowing a late lead and losing in overtime. Dwane Casey is a solid coach and the Pistons have been getting strong play from a couple of unsung players, Jerami Grant and Josh Jackson. Boston isn't motivated to run up a score since the teams play again on Sunday and the Celtics don't want to provide the Pistons with any extra motivation. |
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01-01-21 | Arkansas State +3 v. Louisiana-Monroe | 72-84 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 30 m | Show | |
Arkansas State should be able to pull the outright upset with a decent frontcourt and UL Monroe's lack of scoring. The Warhawks average just 63.6 points per game, which ranks 301st in the country. Arkansas State has played weak competition, but the Red Wolves average nearly 13 points more per contest than Louisiana Monroe. The Warhawks were bad last season especially on the offensive side and they are bad again this season shooting 39.5 percent from the field, which ranks 302nd. |
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12-31-20 | Northern Arizona v. Idaho +3.5 | 78-65 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a bad versus bad Big Sky Conference matchup. So backing the home underdog makes sense especially given the situation and style of play. Northern Arizona is 1-6. The Lumberjacks play slow, are weak inside and can't shoot from the outside. Not exactly a good combination. They average just 58.6 points. So how bad is Idaho to be a home 'dog to this opponent? The Vandals are 0-5. But all of their games have been on the road. This is their first home game and it comes on New Year's Eve. That's certainly not a fun travel date for Northern Arizona. Idaho is the better defensive team. The Vandals also are a much better 3-point shooting team ranking 104th in 3-point percentage at 35.8 percent. The Lumberjacks are 319th in 3-point shooting percentage hitting 26.5 percent from beyond the arc. Idaho has more size than Northern Arizona. I realize nobody cares about this game, including the oddsmaker. But value is value and I don't see why Idaho should be an underdog here.
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12-31-20 | Knicks v. Raptors -9 | Top | 83-100 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
At 0-3, the Raptors are approaching this matchup with a great deal of urgency. I expect a circle-the-wagons type of performance from Toronto. If opponents treat the Knicks seriously then New York is in trouble. The Raptors won't be taking the 2-2 Knicks lightly even though they've defeated New York eight straight times. The Knicks have shown early improvement under Tom Thibodeau. They may not be quite the laughing stock of the past few seasons, but they still are a bottom-feeder. Toronto led the 76ers by 14 points in the second half during its last game two days ago. But the Raptors lost. The last time Toronto opened so poorly was 15 years ago. The Knicks's bench is extremely banged-up especially in the backcourt. Austin Rivers may be able to return from a groin injury that has kept him out, but Frank Ntiliikna and Dennis Smith are sidelined. Shooting guard Alec Burks, the Knicks' second-leading scorer, is questionable with an ankle injury.
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12-31-20 | West Virginia -6.5 v. Army | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -116 | 23 h 39 m | Show |
Army received it's wish to play in a bowl game. Sometimes it's not good, though, to get what you wish. The Black Knights draw West Virginia in the Liberty Bowl. The Mountaineers are a bad fit for Army. The Black Knights had an outstanding season going 9-2, including highly-satisfying victories against rivals Navy and Air Force. But West Virginia is the wrong bowl opponent for them. Army is entirely dependent on running the ball averaging just 36 yards passing a game. Only four teams allowed fewer yards per game than West Virginia. The Mountaineers have a very stout run defense allowing 3.8 yards per rush. They have a pair of NFL defensive line draft prospects in the Stills brothers, Darius and Dante. The Black Knights' glittering 9-2 record doesn't look so shiny on closer examination as three of their victories were against FCS foes Abilene Christian, Citadel and Mercer. Another was against 0-10 Louisiana Monroe. They nipped Georgia Southern by one point. Army's losses came against Cincinnati, 24-10, and to Tulane, 38-12. Those two foes are more in line with the caliber of West Virginia. It's disconcerting to Army that it has been held to 15 points or fewer in three of its last four games. West Virginia faced much better opposition being in the Big 12 Conference. The Mountaineers defeated TCU and lost on the road to Texas by just four points. Unlike Army, West Virginia has a balanced attack. Army didn't face too many passing teams. West Virginia QB Jarret Doege isn't Trevor Lawrence, but he threw for more than 200 yards in every game and has a 13-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Running back Leddie Brown is a good all-purpose back who rushed for nearly 1,000 yards while averaging 5.3 yards per carry. The Mountaineers are the fresher team. They last played on Dec. 5 giving them ample time to game plan for Army's triple option attack. Army beat Navy on Dec. 12 and then followed that up by defeating Air Force on Dec. 19. Those were the biggest games on the Black Knights' schedule. So they might actually be in letdown mode despite this being a bowl game. Army also will be in big trouble if it has to play from behind lacking any semblance of a passing attack. |
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12-30-20 | Portland +4.5 v. Seattle University | Top | 68-84 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
Seattle beat Portland in its season opener coming back from an eight-point halftime deficit. Portland was a 2 1/2-point home favorite in that game. The oddsmaker had it right. The Pilots are the better team. I believe the Pilots still are the superior team. They've gone 6-1 since that loss and have played a stronger schedule than Seattle. The Redhawks are 5-5 and have only two wins versus Division I teams - against Portland and Air Force. The difference could come at the free throw line where Portland ranks 20th in the nation sinking 77.8 percent. Seattle makes less than 69 percent of its free throws.
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12-30-20 | Hornets +8 v. Mavs | 118-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Most NBA teams have certain tendencies. Charlotte usually is tough as an underdog. The Hornets are 8-0-1 ATS the past nine times catching points. They just knocked off the Nets, 106-104, as 11-point home 'dogs this past Sunday. Dallas is good as an underdog, not so good as a home favorite and not very trustworthy following a victory. The Mavericks are coming off an historic, 124-73, road victory against the Clippers this past Sunday in which they led by an NBA-record 50 points at halftime. Now the Mavericks are playing their first home contest of the season after consecutive road games versus the much-improved Suns, defending world champion Lakers and Clippers. Dallas hosts Eastern Conference champion Miami on Friday. In between all of this is this game against the lowly Hornets. So the Mavericks' intensity and concentration level figures to be down. Dallas has covered just 29 percent of the time following a victory during the past 30 instances. Charlotte has some confidence following its victory against Brooklyn. The Hornets should get better as the season progresses integrating two significant newcomers, free agent Gordon Hayward and third overall draft pick LaMelo Ball. The timing of this matchup should result in a closer than expected contest. |
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12-30-20 | North Carolina v. Georgia Tech +4 | 67-72 | Win | 100 | 16 h 55 m | Show | |
Since opening with a four-overtime loss to Georgia State and a defeat to Mercer, Georgia Tech has gone 4-1 posting victories against Kentucky, Nebraska, Florida A&M and Delaware State. The Yellow Jackets are one of the most experienced teams in the country with four seniors and a junior composing their starting lineup. Each of Georgia Tech's starters average double figures in scoring. It's the reason why Georgia Tech ranks third in the ACC in scoring at 82.7 points. Georgia Tech doesn't have a long bench. But this spot sets up well for the Yellow Jackets' starters to play huge minutes. Georgia Tech hasn't played in 10 days and won't be in action again for another three days. North Carolina has been very uneven this season. The Tar Heels have trailed by double-digits in six of their eight games.
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12-30-20 | Western Carolina +4 v. East Tennessee State | 78-86 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
This has been a road team series with the visitor covering six of the last seven. I see that trend continuing. Western Carolina is 7-2. The two losses the Catamounts suffered were to Troy and VCU, two solid opponents. East Tennessee State hasn't played that tough of a schdule. The Bucs are 4-4 and in rebuilt mode having lost their coach and all five starters from last season. The Catamounts have too much scoring for East Tennessee State averaging 84 points while shooting 47.5 percent from the floor. An outright victory would not surprise in the least.
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12-30-20 | Wisconsin -7 v. Wake Forest | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 52 m | Show |
Wisconsin has a far superior defense than Wake Forest. The question with the Badgers is producing enough scoring to cover this touchdown spread. I see that happening against a weak Wake Forest defense and with highly-talented freshman Badgers QB Graham Mertz returning to his pre-COVID-19 form. The Badgers haven't landed a highly rated freshman quarterback like Mertz in well maybe forever. Mertz was living up to the hype, too, with a combined 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the Badgers' first two games - blowout victories against Illinois and Michigan. Then Mertz contracted COVID and Wisconsin's offense went into the tank. Mertz is past the illness now. He doesn't have the skill position weapons of previous Wisconsin teams, but the Badgers have another strong offensive line and running back depth. The Badgers led the nation in time of possession. They also are facing a Demon Deacon defense that allows 31.6 points a game and ranks 107th in total defense. Mertz can pick his spots against a highly vulnerable Wake Forest secondary. Wake Forest wins with its offense. But the Demon Deacons haven't encountered a defense like Wisconsin's. The Badgers give up the fewest yards per game in the nation and rank sixth in scoring defense holding foes to 15.6 points a game. They rank rank sixth in run defense and seventh in pass defense. Sam Hartman is a good, but not a great quarterback. He plays behind a leaky offensive line that allowed an average of 3.2 sacks per game. Wisconsin is 4-1 in bowl games under Paul Chryst. The Badgers' lone bowl defeat under Chryst came last season when they were nipped, 28-27, by Justin Herbert's Oregon team in the Rose Bowl. No shame in that especially seeing how great Herbert has been in the NFL. The Badgers missed games early in the season because of COVID-19 issues. But their season hasn't been nearly as disrupted as Wake Forest's has. The Badgers have played five games in the last six weeks. They defeated Minnesota in their last game on Dec. 19. Wake Forest has only played once since Nov. 14 and that was a horrible 45-21 loss to Louisville on Dec. 12. The Demon Deacons haven't won since October. They played the fewest games of any ACC team this season.
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12-29-20 | Northeastern +18.5 v. West Virginia | 51-73 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
West Virginia was supposed to host Buffalo today, but COVID-19 issues forced the Bulls to cancel. Instead the Mountaineers get Northeastern, a 1-4 team from the Colonial Athletic Association. Easy win for West Virginia, right? The oddsmaker sure thinks so with this large point spread. In my view, it's too big of a number. This is a combination of West Virginia being in a look-ahead spot and Northeastern being better than perceived. The Mountaineers open their Big 12 season following this game. Oklahoma looms on deck. So there's no reason for Bob Huggins to go all out against this non-league foe when he takes the big picture into account. The Huskies split against UMass. They also covered road games versus Syracuse and Old Dominion. The Huskies were leading Georgia by 15 points in the second half as 9 1/2-point road 'dogs in their last game before going frigid and falling, 76-58. Bottom line, I see Northeastern being a tougher out than this point spread indicates. |
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12-28-20 | Pistons +9.5 v. Hawks | Top | 120-128 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
Atlanta is 2-0 with a pair of road wins. But before rushing off to claim how good the Hawks have become, do realize a couple of things: Those victories have been against winless Memphis and winless Chicago, who right now is the worst team in the NBA. Trae Young is shooting 55.6 percent from the floor. Young is an emerging superstar, but he's not nearly that accurate from the floor. He shot 43.7 percent last season from the field. The Pistons should have defeated the Cavaliers in their last game this past Saturday, but lost in double-overtime after leading by eight with three minutes left. Detroit has enjoyed recent success against Atlanta. The Pistons are 4-2 in their last six games against the Hawks, including winning the most recent time. That was a 136-103 blowout victory in Atlanta last January. The Hawks have a number of injured players, including center Clint Capela. Atlanta plays at the Nets on Wednesday. So it's not inconceivable that the Hawks may be looking past the Pistons to a much bigger game. The Hawks aren't good enough to do that and cover a spread this large.
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12-28-20 | NJIT +12 v. Vermont | Top | 81-80 | Win | 100 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
I'm attracted to the underdog in this America East Conference matchup. The teams just played each other on Sunday and Vermont won, 92-78. So this is the shortest of revenge spots for NJIT. The Highlanders have the best player on the court in Zach Cooks. He made just 7 of 18 shots from the field, though, on Sunday. I expect the Highlanders to shoot better as a team and for Vermont to shoot much worse. Each team averages 73 points a game. NJIT made just 36 percent of its field goal attempts and was 6-of-25 from 3-point range in yesterday's game, while Vermont hit 56 percent of its shots from the floor and made 12 of 23 3-pointers. I see the rematch being much closer.
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