Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-14-21 | Nuggets v. Pistons +9 | 104-91 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
The Nuggets are a bit fat and happy going 2-0 on their current road trip and having home-court advantage clinched for the first round of the playoffs. This is their second to last game of the regular season so the Nuggets could rest a key player or two. Denver's objective is the playoffs, not steamrolling the Pistons by double-digits. Detroit has been getting good play from 2019 first round pick Sekou Doumbouya and its first-round picks this season - Saddiq Bey, Killian Hayes, Isaiah Stewart and Saben Lee. The youthful Pistons are in full rebuild so it's no surprise they've been up-and-down this season, mostly down. But Detroit should be up for this home matchup. The Pistons are off an embarrassing 19-point home loss to the Timberwolves this past Tuesday. They've had ample rest and prep time for this game. Pistons management showed its commitment to Dwane Casey extending his contract. Casey would very much like his Pistons to finish strong. This is their chance. |
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05-13-21 | Magic +12.5 v. Hawks | Top | 93-116 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 57 m | Show |
Tight victories against the Wizards on Monday and Wednesday have pushed the Hawks into their first playoff spot in four years. The Hawks are thrilled, relieved and exhausted after nipping Washington, 125-124, three days ago and beating the Wizards, 120-116, last night. This sets up a tremendous letdown spot for the Hawks in today's game against the lowly Magic. This is the Hawks' third game in four days and second in two nights. They are 1-4 ATS the past five times when playing without rest. The Magic held the Bucks, the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA, to 114 points in their last game this past Tuesday. That was six points under the Bucks' season average. The youthful Magic should play hard here, but the situation is the No. 1 factor why Orlando should keep things close.
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05-12-21 | Rockets +13.5 v. Lakers | 122-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm anticipating a monster letdown from the Lakers after their gutty, 101-99, home overtime win against the Knicks Tuesday night. The Lakers accomplished that minus LeBron James. James is expected to make his return in this game. You couldn't blame the Lakers for taking the Rockets lightly, at least subconsciously, especially with the news that James is returning to the lineup. Houston is 5-43 in its last 48 games establishing itself as the worst team in the West if not the entire NBA. But the Rockets have covered their last three games and should get back Christian Wood, their best big man. They have some underrated backup-caliber guards, too, who can look good against LA's depleted backcourt that is minus Dennis Schroder and possibly Alex Caruso. Houston could catch a major break if the Lakers decided to hold out Anthony Davis, who tweaked his groin during the victory against the Knicks.
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05-11-21 | Magic v. Bucks -13 | Top | 102-114 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
The Bucks have something to prove physically and mentally after being embarrassed, 146-125, on the road by the Spurs Monday night. Milwaukee certainly is going to be motivated for tonight's home game and the Bucks have the perfect patsy to get themselves right again - the Magic. Orlando has lost 18 of 24 since dumping their top players at the trade deadline. The Magic are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games. The Bucks are giving up an unsightly 137.7 points during their last three games. It's been a combination of lackluster defense and hot offenses that have caused this. Milwaukee should clamp down defensively here. Orlando is second-to-last in scoring and last in field goal percentage. The Bucks trail the Nets by one game for second-place in the Eastern Conference. So they will have incentive. The Bucks have dominated the Magic winning the past six meetings while going 5-0-1 ATS. This includes the Bucks' two victories against the Magic this season by an average of 29.5 points.
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05-10-21 | Jazz -3 v. Warriors | Top | 116-119 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
There's a class difference here worthy enough to lay the road points. The Jazz are 6-1 in their last seven games riding a five-game win streak. No rest stops for them, though, as they hold just a 1 1/2-game lead on the Suns for the top spot in the Western Conference. The Warriors also have been playing well. But they've also played a bunch of bunnies lately. Their last six games have been against the Thunder twice, Pelicans twice, Rockets and Timberwolves. Only the Pelicans have a slim chance of making the playoffs among that dreck. Utah has covered nine of the last 12 in this series and is 4-1 ATS in its past five visits to Golden State. |
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05-09-21 | Pelicans +4 v. Hornets | 112-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker has overcompensated for the Pelicans not having injured Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Granted those are New Orleans' two best players. The Hornets, however, have five rotation players either out or questionable. So they're dealing with injuries, too. Not only are the Pelicans in must-win mode needing to move up one spot to qualify for the play-in tournament, but the intensity for this matchup is increased because it's a meeting of the Ball brothers, Lonzo and LeMelo. The Pelicans hung in against a much tougher foe than the Hornets this past Friday, losing to the 76ers on the road, 109-107, despite not having Williamson and Ingram. That was the fifth straight road game the Pelicans have covered. They also are 4-0 ATS during their past four visits to Charlotte. |
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05-07-21 | Lakers +8.5 v. Blazers | Top | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
No LeBron James. No Dennis Schroder. OK, now that's out the way here's why the Lakers keep this game close, if not pull the outright upset: The Trail Blazers are playing their first home game since April 25. They've been on the road since turning in an impressive 5-1 away mark during this span. So this is a dangerous spot for the Trail Blazers, who have lost their LAST six home games. The Lakers are 1-4 in their past five games. Their win was against the Nuggets, which is impressive. LA's losses, though, were to the Clippers, Raptors, Kings and Wizards. The Kings and Wizards have been sizzling. Anthony Davis is expected to play after logging just nine minutes in his last game. Davis is calling this matchup the biggest game the Lakers have left on their regular season.
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05-07-21 | Nuggets v. Jazz -4 | 120-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
Both teams are banged-up, but have been surviving very nicely. The Jazz are still elite even if Donovan Mitchell isn't ready to return to the lineup. The Nuggets keep losing players. They've been without star shooting guard Jamal Murray and now have a serious crisis in the backcourt with Monte Morris, sparkplug Will Barton and P.J. Dozier all injured. Look for that to catch up to the Nuggets in Salt Lake City, a place they have failed to cover in 11 of their last 15 visits. The Jazz have been home since May going 3-0 SU and ATS since then beating the Spurs twice and Raptors once. The Nuggets are 2-4 ATS in their last six road contests, with one of those covers occurring versus hapless Houston. There is too much for the Nuggets to overcome and the spread is fair to back the home favorite.
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05-06-21 | Grizzlies v. Pistons +9.5 | Top | 97-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
The Grizzlies aren't good enough to cover a road spread this high considering the situation they are in. This marks Memphis' fifth game in seven days. The Grizzlies just defeated the Timberwolves, 139-135, in a wild game on Wednesday night. Memphis is 1-4 ATS the last five times it has been favored. The Pistons are in a youth movement. But they have received strong play from rookies Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Stewart and Killian Hayes. Those three combined, however, to shoot 4-for-23 in the Pistons' last game. That was two days ago against the Hornets. Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee, Josh Jackson and Wayne Ellington didn't play for Detroit in that game. Still, the Pistons only lost, 102-99. The Pistons are 15-6-1 the past 22 times following a loss. They can hang in against this foe, particularly given the Grizzlies' high fatigue rating. |
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05-05-21 | Pirates v. Padres -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 104 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Neither team has been scoring much. The difference is the Pirates aren't going to break loose eventually like the Padres are because they don't have the offense and stars that San Diego possess. That, in a nutshell, explains the pitching matchup, too, of JT Brubaker versus Yu Darvish. Brubaker has been a highly pleasant surprise for the Pirates with a 2.63 ERA. Perhaps Brubaker will continue to pitch extremely well, but his metrics suggest he's due for regression, including a hard contact ratio and a 91.2 left on base percentage. Darvish is at the superstar level with a 3-1 record and 2.13 ERA. That ERA shrinks to 1.35 ERA if you take Darvish's last 33 1/3 innings. The Pirates are averaging two runs during their last five games.
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05-04-21 | Islanders -1.5 v. Sabres | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
A flat performance and outstanding goaltending from Buffalo fourth-stringer Michael Houser did in the Islanders in a 4-2 loss on Monday. I'm not expecting a repeat. Buffalo is 17-40 following a victory. The Islanders had beaten the Sabres in the previous six meetings this season with five of those victories occurring by multiple goals. The last time the Sabres defeated the Islanders two straight times during the regular season was nine years ago. Even not performing well, the Islanders still outplayed the hapless Sabres in two of three periods. Houser came up with 34 saves. I doubt he plays that well again against a determined Islanders squad that will be taking Buffalo far more seriously this time around. |
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05-02-21 | Lightning -1.5 v. Red Wings | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
The Lightning thoroughly outplayed the Red Wings as expected on Saturday. What wasn't expected was the Red Wings pulling out a 1-0 shootout win. Tampa Bay outshot Detroit, 33-15, but blew a number of good scoring chances. The Lightning won't be taking the Red Wings lightly in this shortest of revenge setting. They also likely won't be playing their backup goalie again. I see this as a kill spot for the Lightning. Detroit has no firepower. The Red Wings have only scored more than two goals once in their eight games. Tampa Bay is the No. 3 scoring team in the NHL at 3.4 goals per game.
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05-02-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 16-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 42 m | Show |
I don't see the Brewers sweeping the Dodgers. Not with a pitching matchup of Julio Urias versus Alec Bettinger. Not with Milwaukee missing 15 players, including Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain and Omar Narvaez. Not with star relief pitcher Josh Hader almost certainly not being able to pitch. Urias has been one of the better pitchers during the last two seasons. His brilliance is overshadowed, though, being on such a strong Dodgers pitching staff. Urias is 3-0 with a 3.23 ERA this season. His last regular season loss was back in 2019. He is 2-1 lifetime versus the Brewers with a 2.86 ERA in four career starts. Bettinger will be making his big league debut. He is considered the Brewers' No. 23 prospect. Hader has pitched an inning each of the last three days, throwing a total of 45 pitches during this span. So I doubt the Brewers use him today.
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05-01-21 | Nuggets v. Clippers -5 | Top | 110-104 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
Early speculation is the Clippers will have superstar Kawhi Leonard for this game. Leonard has played just once during the last three weeks because of a sore foot. The Clippers have been targeting this matchup for Leonard to play. Even if Leonard has to sit out another game, I still like the Clippers to cover. LA is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games. Denver is 8-1 since losing its star, Jamal Murray. The Nuggets, though, have played weak-to-mediocre teams during this stretch. They are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. |
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05-01-21 | Pistons +7 v. Hornets | 94-107 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
The Hornets haven't been favored by this many points all season. I don't see it here. Not with the Hornets minus Gordon Hayward and LeMelo Ball. The Pistons have proven spunky. Their main rookies - Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Stewart and Killian Hayes - have been playing well. Detroit is off a double-digit loss at home to the Mavericks. This is a step down in class for the Pistons, who usually play well following a defeat. They are 11-0 ATS in their next game after a double-digit home loss. |
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04-30-21 | Golden Knights v. Coyotes +1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
The Coyotes are in desperation, must-win mode win trailing the Blues for the final playoff spot in the West Division. The Coyotes have a winning record in their past nine home games and are primed to give a strong effort here. The Golden Knights, on the other hand, enter this matchup fat and happy. Their playoff ticket is punched and they are off a highly-satisfying, 5-2, home victory against the Avalanche this past Wednesday. The Golden Knights regard the Avalanche as their main competitor in the Western Conference. This is a prime letdown spot for Las Vegas. So this sets up as a great ambush spot for Arizona. But to play it safe, I'm going to lay the juice and take 1 1/2 goals on the puck line. |
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04-29-21 | Warriors -5 v. Wolves | Top | 114-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
Break up the Timberwolves. Minnesota is riding a season-high three game winning streak. The Timberwolves upset powerful Utah twice and then got past lowly Houston, 114-107, this past Tuesday. The Warriors, a .500 team in a desperate struggle to earn the final spot in the Western Conference play-in tournament, are the first decent opponent Minnesota plays after stunning Utah twice. The Timberwolves have picked up their game since Karl-Anthony Towns, D'Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards have all been on the court together. But they are overdue for a letdown and I expect the Warriors to bring their "A" game after an embarrassing, 133-103, home loss to the Mavericks this past Tuesday. The Warriors have covered each of the last four times following a defeat. |
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04-28-21 | Hawks +8.5 v. 76ers | Top | 83-127 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This opening point spread is a case of just looking at the last game's results. Those results from two days ago were the 76ers burying the hapless Thunder, 121-90, while the Hawks were getting upset by the lowly Pistons, 100-86. Before that victory against Oklahoma City, losers of 14 of its last 15 games, the 76ers had dropped four in a row. Philadelphia is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games. The Hawks had upset the Bucks two games ago leaving them ripe for a letdown against the Pistons. Despite multiple injuries, the Hawks have won and covered 11 of their last 15 games. I'm not expecting Trae Young to return to the Hawks' lineup yet. But Clint Capela has been playing as well as any big man in the league. Guard Kris Dunn made his season debut against the Pistons bolstering Atlanta's backcourt depth. It would not surprise me if the 76ers sat out Joel Embiid for this game. Embiid played against the Thunder, but was in pain due to a sore right shoulder. So I'm taking an early position here knowing if Embiid is rested this line will drop sharply. |
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04-26-21 | Jazz -9.5 v. Wolves | 104-105 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
The Jazz are tough enough to face under ordinary circumstances. Now the Timberwolves draw Utah in a rapid revenge spot. Minnesota stunned Utah, 101-96, as 12 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Saturday. The Jazz hadn't played at home in nine days and were going right back on the road following the game. Utah was distracted and not ready to bury the Timberwolves. The Jazz also were cold, shooting just 40.2 percent from the floor. That won't be the case here. The Jazz should be extremely fired-up and focused. They rank No. 3 in the NBA in scoring at 116.5. Minnesota ranks 29th defensively allowing nearly 118 points per game. The Timberwolves won their first two games of the season. They haven't won two straight since then. Minnesota is 7-18-2 ATS following a victory. The Timberwolves have failed to cover five of the last six times they've hosted Utah. |
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04-26-21 | Hawks v. Pistons +4 | 86-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
The Pistons usually can be counted on for a good effort thanks to Dwane Casey. Detroit is in a great ambush spot here. The Hawks upset the Bucks, 111-104, as 5 1/2-point home 'dogs on Sunday. Atlanta achieved the victory minus its best player, guard Trae Young. The Hawks are short-handed in the backcourt and at wing with Young, De'Andre Hunter, Cam Reddish, Tony Snell and Kris Dunn all out. Not only are the Hawks in a letdown spot, but they carry a heavy fatigue rating, too. This marks Atlanta's fifth game in seven days and second in two days. Detroit is in stop-the-pain mode having lost three in a row. Those losses were on the road. The Pistons are 2-0 SU and ATS in their last two home contests beating the Cavaliers and Thunder. The Hawks are a notch above those teams, but they are just a borderline playoff team not some elite opponent. Detroit has covered 77 percent the past 26 times following a non-cover. The Pistons have been getting strong play from their bench. This could prove crucial given the Hawks' high fatigue status.
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04-25-21 | Kings +9.5 v. Warriors | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
The Kings covered for the eighth time in the past nine meetings against the Warriors when they rolled past Golden State, 141-119, at home on March 25. Sacramento was minus 4 1/2 points in that game. Now look at the spread. Quite a difference. Stephen Curry didn't play in that last meeting. Curry is back anc playing at his highest level, which is considerable. De'Aaron Fox is out for Sacramento due to COVID. Fox is the Kings' best player. Golden State is home this time and will have fans in the stand. This explains the huge point spread differential from the past meeting. But it's not enough to keep me off the Kings. I envision a much closer score than the oddsmaker does. The Kings are in must-win mode trailing the Warriors and Spurs by 5 1/2 games for the final two playoff spots in the West. The loss of Fox is huge. However, it weakens the Kings' bench more than the starting five because star rookie Tyrese Haliburton will move into the starting lineup now. There's a chance the Kings get back big man Richaun Holmes. He's practicing after missing the past five games with a hamstring injury. I'm expecting the Kings to go all out with their starters logging big minutes. The Kings will be well rested having last played this past Wednesday. Sacramento has covered 20 of the past 26 times for 77 percent when playing on three or more day's rest. The Kings have been playing well, too, winning two of their last three games. They have covered their last two road contests upsetting Dallas a week ago and coming within eight points of the Suns on April 15. The Warriors are in a letdown spot coming off a huge and impressive, 118-97, home victory against the Nuggets two days ago. Golden State's depth is down with rotation players Kent Bazemore, Damion Lee, Eric Paschall and James Wiseman all out. So the Kings' backup players won't be so vulnerable. |
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04-24-21 | Bulls v. Heat -4.5 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
The Heat were humbled by the Timberwolves eight days ago. Miami responded to that bad loss by winning three in a row defeating the Nets and blowing out the Rockets and Spurs. But then last night the Heat's 3-game win streak ended in terrible form with a 118-103 road loss to the Hawks. It was one of the Heat's worst defensive games of the season especially considering Atlanta won without its two best players, Trae Young and Clint Capela. Miami bounced back after its loss to Minnesota and I see the Heat doing it again hosting the Bulls, who remain without their top player, Zach LaVine. I consider Erik Spolestra one of the top coaches in the NBA. I trust him to have the Heat fired-up after Friday night's stinker. The Bulls are 1-4 in their last five road games. During this span, Chicago lost by 16 points to the Cavaliers this past Wednesday, lost by 11 to the Grizzlies, fell to the Timberwolves by four and lost to the Hawks by 12.
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04-24-21 | Stars -1.5 v. Red Wings | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
Despite multiple injuries, the Red Wings came out of nowhere to surprise the hot Stars, 7-3, at home this past Thursday. Dallas is much the better team and won't get ambushed again. Detroit is 6-16 following a victory. All but one of the Stars' last six victories have been by more than one goal. Until Thursday's shocking four-goal loss to the Red Wings, the Stars had given up just 12 goals during their previous eight games. |
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04-22-21 | Devils v. Penguins -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Don't look for Penguins to come close to blowing a six-goal lead like they did this past Tuesday. Pittsburgh is some three tiers better than the Devils, who have lost seven in a row and are now firmly in the argument for worst team in the NHL. Yet the Devils nearly came back from a 6-0 deficit against the Penguins two days ago, losing 7-6 after trailing, 6-0. Penguins coach Mike Sullivan spent yesterday lecturing his team about not letting up. The Penguins have won 40 of their last 56 home contests and I expect a blowout here. New Jersey, losers of 23 of its last 30 games, could be short-handed on the blueline if P.K. Subban remains on the COVID-19 protocol list. |
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04-21-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers +2 | Top | 106-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
The Nuggets are 3-0 since watching the horror of Jamal Murray go down for the season with a torn ACL. Denver has managed to beat the Heat, the hapless Rockets and the Grizzlies in double overtime this past Monday rallying from a 12-point deficit with less than four minutes left in regulation. Now, though, the Nuggets are without Murray and fellow guard Monte Morris. He's out with a hamstring injury. Denver escaped the Grizzlies despite committing 24 turnovers. I don't see the Nuggets escaping on the road here against Portland. The Trail Blazers are off a 113-112 home loss to the Clippers last night. Portland came very close despite not having Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic. Lillard is Portland's best player and Nurkic is their best front-court player. Both Lillard and Nurkic are expected to play against the Nuggets. The Trail Blazers' huge backcourt edge should carry them through.
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04-21-21 | Sharks v. Golden Knights -1.5 | 2-5 | Win | 102 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
It was an emotional game for the Sharks when they met the Golden Knights two days ago as it marked Patrick Marleau setting the record for most games played in NHL history. The Sharks gave it a great effort, but fell, 3-2, in a shootout. The Golden Knights came back from a 2-0 deficit. I don't see the Sharks being so up for this game. San Jose has lost six in a row. Before Monday's game, the Sharks had lost by multiple goals in eight of their past nine losses. Las Vegas had won four in a row by more than one goal before Monday's game. The Golden Knights were very classy following Monday's game in congratulating the Sharks and Marleau. Make no mistake, though, the Golden Knights hate the Sharks. This is a bitter rivalry. I don't see the Golden Knights coming out flat again. Las Vegas has won all six of the meetings between the two teams this season.
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04-20-21 | Maple Leafs -1.5 v. Canucks | 3-6 | Loss | -114 | 17 h 32 m | Show | |
It was probably the biggest upset of the season. The Canucks stunned the Maple Leafs, 3-2 in overtime, two days ago. Vancouver hadn't played since March 24. Braden Holtby turned in his finest Vancouver performance stopping 37 shots. Holtby was filling in for regular goalie Thatcher Demko, one of 22 Vancouver players to test positive for COVID-19. Holtby has a save percentage of less than 90 percent and his GAA is 3.44. He's past his prime. The Maple Leafs are several tiers above the Canucks. I expect them to get their revenge in a big way here. Tuesday Free Play Penguins at Devils Over 6 minus $1.05 These two teams just met on April 9 and April 11 in Pittsburgh. The Penguins won those games, 6-4 and 5-2. So what's changed? Nothing. The youthful, mistake-prone Devils still are in full rebuild mode and the Penguins still have a well above average offense ranking sixth in goals. Pittsburgh has scored 3 or more goals in 10 of its last 13 games. The Penguins shouldn't encounter problems denting the net again versus the Devils, who rank 28th defensively and have the worst penalty kill in the league. New Jersey has surrendered a minimum of 3 goals in each of its last nine games. The Devils aren't quitting, though. They came from three goals down to tie the Rangers during their last game this past Sunday before losing, 5-3. The Penguins haven't been sharp defensively. They've given up seven power-play goals during their last eight games and are off a 4-2 loss to the lowly Sabres this past Sunday.
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04-19-21 | Cavs -2.5 v. Pistons | 105-109 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Scared about asking the Cavaliers to win on the road? Don't be. Cleveland has won and covered three of its last four road contests. The Cavaliers still have playoff hopes, while the Pistons are in full rebuild. The Cavaliers have covered the last five in this series, including winning both games against the Pistons this season. Detroit lost, 121-100, to the Wizards two days ago. The Pistons permitted the Wizards, whose guards usually do most of their damage, to score 74 points in the paint. |
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04-18-21 | Maple Leafs -1.5 v. Canucks | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Toronto is one of the best teams in hockey. The Maple Leafs are in rare stop-the-pain mode losers of three in a row, including an embarrassing 5-2 home loss to the Jets in their last game this past Thursday. The Maple Leafs are in a great scheduling spot here. They draw Vancouver, which hasn't played since March 24 because of an outbreak of COVID-19 that affected 22 of its players. Not only have the Canucks not played since then, but they've only been able to practice once during this long idle period. They still could be down as many as seven players. The Canucks certainly could use more time to get ready, but the league is anxious for them to resume their season. The Canucks are not up to par physically or mentally. I can't see them hanging close to the Maple Leafs regardless if Austin Matthews, the NHL's top goal scorer, plays or not after sitting out Thursday with a hand injury. Toronto has won five of the last six times it has been a road favorite. They are in a great spot to add to that record.
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04-17-21 | Senators +1.5 v. Canadiens | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 1 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm not sold on the Canadiens to win this game especially by multiple goals. Montreal has won only once by more than one goal during its last eight games. The Canadiens are missing one of their key offensive players with Brandan Gallagher out. The Senators usually keep games close. They would be 11-3 in their last 14 games if given 1 1/2 goals.
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04-16-21 | Tigers v. A's -1.5 | 0-3 | Win | 111 | 17 h 30 m | Show | |
The A's took care of the Tigers, 8-4, on Thursday and I see them beating Detroit by multiple runs again today. The Tigers are 1-8 in their last nine games at Oakland Coliseum. Oakland is riding a five-game win streak. The A's are swinging hot bats averaging 7.4 runs in their last five games. Oakland has a huge pitching edge in this matchup with Jose Urena facing Frankie Montas. Urena has an 8.22 ERA in starts against the Indians and Twins with a 2.09 WHIP. Detroit has the worst bullpen in the majors with a 6.65 ERA. Montas displayed signs of reverting back to his excellent form of two seasons ago during his last start when he held the Astros to one earned run in six innings. The Tigers are below average offensively ranking 21st in runs and batting average. |
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04-15-21 | Tigers v. A's -1.5 | 4-8 | Win | 125 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
A lot of teams have trouble playing the A's in Oakland. So it's no surprise Detroit is one such club. The Tigers are 1-7 in their last eight visits to Oakland. The Tigers are ripe for a letdown after sweeping a three-game series against the COVID-19-ravaged Astros. The pitching matchup is lefty Tarik Skubal, who has a 7.71 ERA this season after a pair of starts versus the Indians, against Sean Manaea, who is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA in three career starts against the Tigers. The A's are 40-14 the past 54 games when facing a lefty starter. |
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04-14-21 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Wild | 2-5 | Loss | -147 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
The Wild's schedule and mental frame have been thrown out of whack due to protests in the Minneapolis region following the police shooting of unarmed Daunte Wright. The Wild's Monday night home game against the Blues was postponed until May 12 and their game today against Arizona was moved up to the afternoon instead of being played in the evening like originally scheduled. All of this has to be distracting and disconcerting to the Minnesota players and families. It leaves open how much concentration and intensity the Wild will have in this matchup. The Minnesota Timberwolves played on Tuesday afternoon at home against the Nets after their original Monday night game against the Nets was postponed. The Timberwolves were blown out by 30 points. Unlike the Timberwolves, the Wild are heavy favorites in this game. Because of circumstances brought about by the tragic shooting, the Wild are more susceptible to being flat. I can't trust the Coyotes, losers of four in a row, to pull off the outright upset but I will lay high juice to back them at plus 1 1 2 goals on the puck line. The Coyotes are in stop-the-pain mode. Their last three losses have come to elite foes, two games against the Golden Knights and one to the Avalanche.
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04-12-21 | Rangers v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
I like Tyler Glasnow. We all like Tyler Glasnow. Now here's a chance to back him at home at a low price via the run line in what should be an easy victory for Tampa Bay. Glasnow is in the argument for third-best pitcher in the American League behind Gerrit Cole and Shane Bieber. He should dominate a weak-hitting Rangers club that has scored six runs in their last four games. Glasnow has given up one run in 12 innings that season with 15 strikeouts. The rebuilding Rangers are going with prospect Dane Dunning. He pitched well in his Rangers debut this past Tuesday holding Toronto to one run in five innings. Now, though, opponents have film and a more detailed scouting report on the right-handed Dunning. Tampa Bay is 42-11 in its last 53 home games when facing a righty starter. The Rangers have played their last six games at home where they were the only team in the majors allowing 100 percent fan capacity. Now the Rangers go to a tough and unusual venue, Tropicana Park. Dunning isn't the only young player on the Rangers. So I can easily envision the lowly Rangers struggling in this foreign setting against a much superior opponent. Each of the Rays' last three victories have been by more than one run. |
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04-11-21 | Pistons +12.5 v. Clippers | Top | 124-131 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
I know it doesn't say much for the Pistons when Jerami Grant is the team's best player and he may not even play after missing the past two games due to a sore knee. But the Pistons aren't as bad as perceived. They are 4-4 in their last eight games. Detroit 13-5 ATS the past 18 times when taking more than 6 points. This does mark Detroit's fifth and final road game of its current away swing. The Pistons, though, have a lot of young players looking to make their mark. They got their rest last night in a poorly played, 118-103, loss to the Trail Blazers. I believe the Pistons will show more energy and effort in this game. Detroit had shot better than 50 percent from the floor in their previous three games before Portland. The Clippers are fat and happy posting a 6-2 mark during their current homestand. It would be hard to blame the Clippers if they took the Pistons too lightly here. LA is still tinkering with its rotation. Serge Ibaka and Patrick Beverley are both out. Rajon Rondo and DeMarcus Cousins are trying to get their footing. Paul George is dealing with a bruised foot. Kawhi Leonard always is a candidate for rest against a sub .500 opponent. |
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04-11-21 | Sabres +1.5 v. Flyers | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
Less than 24 hours after a achieving a highly-satisfying 3-2 win against the Bruins on Saturday, the Flyers have to play again. The opponent is the rebuilding Sabres. So I need to go to the puck to get an extra cushion at plus 1 1/2 goals, but this definitely is a bad spot for Philadelphia. The Flyers exerted a lot of energy holding off the Bruins, including going 4-for-4 in penalty kills. The Flyers carry a huge fatigue factor as this is their fifth game in seven days. The two teams met twice in Buffalo on March 29 and 31. The Sabres blew a 3-0 lead in a 4-3 overtime loss. Buffalo came back to whip the Flyers, 6-1, to end its 18-game losing streak. The Sabres have played better during their last eight games as some of their younger players develop more. If given 1 1/2 goals during this span, the Sabres would be 7-1.
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04-09-21 | Rockets +12 v. Clippers | Top | 109-126 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
The Clippers enter this matchup against the lowly Rockets fat and happy. LA is riding a three-game win streak, is playing at home for the eighth consecutive game and coming off a highly-satisfying victory against the Suns last night. LA's last four games have been against the Suns, Trail Blazers, Lakers and Nuggets. Now the Clippers get a huge drop in class. The last time the Clippers hosted a below .500 foe was five games ago against the Magic on March 30. Orlando sprung a 103-96 upset in that game. The Rockets are more respectable since getting John Wall and Christian Wood back from injury. They proved that in their last game when they upset the Mavericks, 102-93, at home this past Wednesday. The Rockets displayed tough defense and renewed spirit. So they are capable. I wouldn't be shocked either if Kawhi Leonard sat out. He played 38 minutes against the Suns last night and even got poked in the eye, which he said bothered his vision during the game. If Leonard is indeed rested, this line will go down several points.
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04-08-21 | Suns v. Clippers -5 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
If there were still any doubt about the Suns not being an elite team it was laid to rest on Wednesday night when Phoenix beat Utah, 117-113, in overtime. Only the Jazz have a better record in the NBA than the Suns. No team has been better against the spread than Phoenix, which has covered 66 percent of its games this season with a 33-17 ATS mark. The Suns have won seven in a row. Yet I'm going against the Suns today. Normally I'd either play on the Suns, or avoid them. They have been the wrong team to fade. Not this time, though. It's not who you play in the NBA when it comes to point spread covers during the regular season, but when you play them. This situation is just too good to ignore the Clippers. Not only are the Clippers an elite team themselves - certainly capable of winning the NBA championship - but they catch the Suns in a horrible spot. The Jazz-Suns Wednesday showdown lived up to the hype. Both teams laid it on the line like it was the seventh game of a playoff series. There was no holding back. The Suns wanted to prove to their fans and to a national TV audience that they indeed are for real. That point was proven, but the price didn't come cheap. Chris Paul, who turns 36 in less than a month, played a season-high 43 minutes against Utah. Devin Booker logged nearly 44 minutes. Deandre Ayton went more than 41 minutes. He hadn't played more than 40 minutes all season. The Suns also played a tight game this past Monday getting past Houston, 133-130, on the road. So they are playing for the third time in four days, all at different venues, and without rest. The Suns are not the deepest of teams. The Clippers are back to full strength with the exception of Serge Ibaka. LA strengthened its rotation by signing DeMarcus Cousins, who says he's in the best shape of his life. The Clippers were idle on Wednesday following an easy, 133-116, home win against the Trail Blazers this past Tuesday. This will be the second meeting between Phoenix and LA. The Clippers defeated the Suns, 112-107, at Phoenix on Jan. 3. Paul George led the way with a season-high 39 points. The Clippers led by 20 at halftime. There was a lot of trash talking in that game. The Clippers have covered eight of their last 10 home games. They are 8-1 ATS the last nine times hosting the Suns. The NBA schedule makers did the Suns no favor scheduling them for this matchup following a home game against the Jazz. The Clippers are going to be up for this game and they have the talent to blow out any opponent, Phoenix included. I can't see the Suns coming up with anything resembling an "A" level performance and effort after Wednesday's tremendous home victory, perhaps the best moment of the season for them. This one goes to the Clippers and I don't expect the score to be close.
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04-07-21 | Pelicans +9 v. Nets | 111-139 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
It's easy to look at the Pelicans and see a string of key players hurt and a 26th-ranked defense. There's also a fatigue factor as New Orleans is playing without rest and for the fifth time in seven days. Meanwhile, the Nets are expected to finally get back Kevin Durant, who has missed the past 23 games. However, the combination of a large point spread, James Harden being out with a hamstring injury and the Nets being a horrible favorite put me on New Orleans. The Pelicans are short-handed in the backcourt with Josh Hart and Nickeil Alexander-Walker out with injuries. Brandon Ingram is questionable. So he may not play either. But Zion Williamson, who has emerged as a high-percentage shooting, all-around monster player, is back from a thumb injury. Lonzo Ball is playing well. Eric Bledsoe is a capable guard and recently signed Isaiah Thomas is available. He played 25 minutes scoring 10 points against the Hawks on Tuesday night. Durant figures to be rusty. He probably won't log a lot of minutes. The Nets may even come into this matchup overconfident based on their opponent and finally getting Durant back while having Kyrie Irving. The oddsmaker seems to be in love with the Nets. The Nets haven't returned this love going 1-9 ATS the past 10 times they've been chalk. |
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04-06-21 | Bulls v. Pacers +1 | Top | 113-97 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
The Pacers are off a 139-133 road victory against the Spurs this past Saturday. That's significant for several reasons. It halted a three-game Indiana losing streak and the Pacers accomplished that impressive feat minus Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon. Those are arguably Indiana's two best players. So it's not asking too much for the Pacers to just beat the Bulls at home even if Sabonis and Brodgon have to sit out again. Each is questionable. Indiana has had two full days to rest and game plan. The Bulls have dropped their last four road games, including a 120-104 loss to the Spurs on March 27. Indiana has covered six of the past seven in the series.
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04-05-21 | Baylor v. Gonzaga -4 | 86-70 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 19 m | Show | |
So Baylor and Gonzaga do get to meet after all after their December matchup had to be cancelled. They were the two best teams back then and they still are the two best teams in college basketball. Here's the difference though: Gonzaga can survive if it doesn't play an "A" game, or doesn't shoot well. Baylor can't. The Bulldogs had their brush with elimination, but they held off UCLA in overtime. The Bruins came in with their "A" game, but it wasn't quite enough against one of the best college teams of all-time. That's what the Bulldogs are. Baylor is very good, too. I just don't put them in Gonzaga's class. Each team has their stars. Gonzaga, however, has more weapons, can score better inside and is superior on the boards and at the free throw line as Baylor makes just 68.6 percent of its free throws.
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04-04-21 | Grizzlies v. 76ers -3 | Top | 116-100 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
The 76ers are dominant at home, the point spread is lower than I anticipated and Joel Embiid is back. This is enough to put me on the 76ers. Philadelphia is 20-4 at home this season. The 76ers have covered 68 percent of their past 52 home games. Memphis is 4-11 ATS the past 15 times when on the road meeting a foe with a winning home record. The Grizzlies have failed to cover during their last four visits to Philadelphia. Embiid wasn't rusty after missing 10 games due to a bruised knee scoring 24 points against the Timberwolves on Saturday. |
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04-03-21 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Padres | 0-7 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
I like the Padres to make a run at the Dodgers in the NL West. But there are going to be spots where San Diego is overpriced. This is one of them in a pitching matchup of Caleb Smith versus Joe Musgrove. Smith showed potential with the Marlins and he had a 2.45 ERA and 1.00 WHIP for the Diamondbacks after being traded to them last season. Smith is 2-1 lifetime versus the Padres with a 2.01 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in four starts. Musgrove went 1-5 in eight starts with the Pirates last season. His lifetime numbers are 29-38 with a 4.33 ERA, which includes 83 starts. He might get more victories pitching for the Padres, but I consider him a lower-end starter, who should not be in this price range. The Diamondbacks have some underrated power. If Ketel Marte returns to form, the Diamondbacks could surprise. Marte is off to a fast start going 6-for-10 with four extra base hits, including two homers.
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04-03-21 | Cavs +12 v. Heat | 101-115 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
I'm not expecting the Heat to be up for this game, or to produce an "A" type of effort. Why bother, they're playing the Cavaliers. Based on this belief, I'll take Cleveland plus this many points. Miami hosted Cleveland just 2 1/2 weeks ago and won, 113-98. The Cavaliers have lost four in a row. The Heat are on a three-game win streak. This is the Heat's fourth game in six days. Miami is 5-11-1 ATS the past 17 times as a home favorite. But are there other reasons to get involved with the Cavaliers besides perceived line value and the strong possibility of a Miami letdown? Yes, the Cavaliers have been blown out by the 76ers and Jazz in their last two games. But they have been tougher than you might think. Prior to those two defeats, the Cavaliers were highly competitive in five of their previous seven games - beating the Celtics, Raptors and Bulls while losing by six to the Spurs and by two to the hot Kings. The injury absences of Jarrett Allen and Larry Nance Jr. is somewhat off-set by the return of Kevin Love and sparkplug Matthew Dellavedova. Love went 20 minutes against the 76ers. Cleveland only was outscord by two points during Love's time on the court. Love should see more minutes against Miami. Dellavedova made his season debut versus Philly and stabilized Cleveland's second unit. He's a hustling, team-oriented veteran popular with his teammates. Note that Miami has played nine games since defeating the Cavaliers by 15 points. The Heat haven't won by more than 10 points in any of those contests.
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04-03-21 | Houston v. Baylor -5 | Top | 59-78 | Win | 100 | 79 h 35 m | Show |
Before Baylor had to pause its season for three weeks due to COVID-19 back in early February, the Bears were right up there with Gonzaga as the best team in the country. I wouldn't put Baylor back in that super elite class where only Gonzaga resides. But I would the Bears at their own Tier 2 level, a class above Houston. I don't want to denigrate the Cougars. Baylor, however, checks all the boxes for me in this matchup. The Bears possess speed, size and shooting. They average 85.3 points. Houston hasn't broken the 67-point mark in each of its last three games and that's facing inferior competition compared to who Baylor has played. The Bears have won their four NCAA Tourney games by an average of 14.2 points, defeating superior foes than who Houston has beaten. The Cougars have had an easy path not playing a team ranked higher than a No. 10 seed. Their tourney victories were against Cleveland State, Rutgers, Syracuse and Oregon State. Baylor not only is high-scoring, but its defense has shutdown capabilities. The Bears could have the best backcourt trio in the nation with Jared Butler, MaCio Teague and Davion Mitchell, who could be the top defensive player in the country. Houston is a tremendous defensive club. No team is more accurate from 3-point range, though, than the Bears, who make 42.9 percent from beyond the arc. So this negates Houston's inside defensive strength. |
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04-01-21 | Rangers -1.5 v. Sabres | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
There must have been plenty of Labatt Blue consumed in Buffalo last night after the Sabres ended their 18-game winless streak by crushing the Flyers, 6-1, at home. The Sabres still could be celebrating by the time this game starts. It's unfortunate for the Sabres they have to play right away following that long-awaited victory. It's also their third game in four days and sixth game in nine days. Buffalo is 3-14 in its last 17 home contests. The Rangers don't mind being party poopers. They can't afford a slip-up here. New York is 6-4 in its last 10 games with all of its victories during this span occurring by at least two goals. The Rangers have proven trustworthy lately in this role winning six of the last seven times as chalk. Probable Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin is 2-0 with a 1.96 GAA and .918 save percentage in two games against Buffalo this season. Sabres expected goalie Dustin Tokarski, on the other hand, has a 5.12 GAA and .854 save percentage in three career games versus the Rangers.
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04-01-21 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -1.5 | 7-8 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
Far superior team. Far superior starting pitcher and a stronger bullpen.The Padres check the boxes here. That's why they are such a strong favorite. I have to believe they are going to win this game by at least two runs so I'm going to lay them on the run line to avoid the heavy juice. The Diamondbacks appear to have made a foolish investment in Madison Bumgarner signing him to a five-year, $85 million contract. Bumgarner still is just 31, but he has a lot of wear-and-tear that showed itself last season when he went 1-4 with a 6.48 ERA in nine starts. Bumgarner doesn't have a good history at Petco Park either with a 5-9 career record and 4.38 ERA. How bad is Arizona's bullpen? Joakim Soria is the closer. So Bumgarner isn't going to get any relief help. The Padres posted their highest winning percentage last season going 37-23. They look even better this season. Yu Darvish is one reason for this. He finished No. 2 in the Cy Young Award balloting with an 8-3 record and 2.01 ERA in 12 starts in 2020. He has a 2.93 lifetime ERA versus the Diamondbacks in five starts with 53 strikeouts in 30 2/3 innings.
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03-31-21 | Bucks -8 v. Lakers | Top | 112-97 | Win | 100 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
Minus LeBron James and Anthony Davis, the Lakers still are capable of dispatching dregs like the Magic and Cavaliers. But they can't hang in against a motivated elite opponent. The Bucks are one such foe. The Lakers draw an angry Bucks team with something to prove having lost three in a row with the latest defeat being a crushing 125-109 road loss to the Clippers two days ago. The Bucks haven't had to travel following that loss because this game is at Staples Center, too. Milwaukee also has revenge motivation for a 113-106 home loss to the Lakers back in January. James was the key in that game scoring 34 points. Davis had 18 points. The Lakers are hoping newly signed Andre Drummond can make a difference. Drummond hasn't played since Feb. 12. His minutes are going to be restricted here and he figures to be plenty rusty. |
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03-31-21 | Knicks -3.5 v. Wolves | 101-102 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 49 m | Show | |
Most teams find it difficult to get up for the Timberwolves. Can you blame them? Minnesota has the worst record in the NBA at 11-36. The Timberwolves have failed to cover 12 of the last 17 times they've been a 'dog, too. The Knicks are the exception. They will be up for this matchup - and it's because of Tom Thibodeau. The defensive guru has the Knicks ranking No. 1 defensively giving up 104.6 points a game. The Timberwolves fired Thibodeau as their coach and president in early January of 2019. The season before Thibodeau had led Minnesota to its first playoff berth in 17 years. New York is coming off a bad 98-88 loss to the Heat this past Tuesday. The Knicks are 9-1 ATS the last 10 times following a loss. They also have shown the ability to take care of business against bad teams going 12-3 ATS the past 15 times versus a sub .500 opponent. The Timberwolves rarely can be counted on to play two strong games in a row. Minnesota nearly upset the hot Nets two days ago, losing 112-107.
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03-31-21 | Flyers v. Sabres +1.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
The Sabres won't have a better chance of ending their hideous 18-game losing streak than right here. But can they be trusted? Heck no. That's why I'm backing them on the puck line taking 1 1/2 goals and laying juice believing this is going to be an extremely close game between two teams who are playing terribly. It sure went that way this past Monday night. Buffalo jumped to a 3-0 lead before proceeding to lose, 4-3 in overtime. It may have been the Sabres' most frustrating loss of the season, which is saying a lot since you need a calculator to add up all of their defeats. Now the Sabres get their revenge opportunity. Motivation can mean everything, but it won't work if the talent level isn't there. Fortunately for the Sabres, the Flyers are extremely mediocre with the worst defense and penalty kill in the league. Philadelphia is 5-9 in its last 14 games. If laying 1 1/2 goals, the Flyers would be riding a 16-game losing streak themselves. They haven't won a game by more than one goal this entire month.
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03-30-21 | Magic +11.5 v. Clippers | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
If the Clippers cared about this opponent they would crush them. But they don't. Would you? Orlando could field the least respectable lineup in the NBA following the trade deadline where they dealt its three best players to play for the future. LA is extremely fat and happy, winners and covers of six in a row, including a highly-satisfying 129-105 destruction of the Bucks Monday night. Maybe Kawhi Leonard sits out this one since he played yesterday. Orlando has a lineup you don't want to know, but the Magic have been competitive covering their last three games: Beating the Suns straight-up, losing by seven points to the Trail Blazers and falling to the Lakers by three points. Those point spread covers all came at home. Now the Magic are on the road. Point, though, is the Magic's youngsters should continue to play hard now that they have an opportunity while the Clippers are in a monster letdown spot. Even if the Clippers build up a big lead, the backdoor should swing open with LA hosting the Nuggets on Thursday in a much bigger game.
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03-29-21 | Arkansas +8 v. Baylor | Top | 72-81 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
It takes some luck to reach the Elite Eight. It's very difficult to produce an A game in every pressure-packed matchup. Arkansas got away with that against Oral Roberts in its last game. I'm expecting the Razorbacks to play much better against Baylor, which hasn't been the dominant team it was earlier in the season before having to sit out games because of COVID-19 protocols. I consider Baylor closer to the rest of the remaining teams rather than sitting on the top perch alongside Gonzaga. The Razorbacks aren't getting a lot of love despite peaking at the right time covering 10 of their last 13 games. Arkansas has the defense, necessary guard play and coaching to if not spring the direct upset, at least hang closer than this point spread indicates. Arkansas has the capacity to effectively mix up its defensive coverages. This is crucial in facing Baylor. The Razorbacks held all three of their NCAA Tourney opponents - Colgate, Texas Tech and Oral Roberts - below their season scoring averages. Arkansas is now 10th in defensive efficiency going by the KenPom.com ratings. Moses Moody provides the Razorbacks with an upper level guard. He was instrumental in the Razorbacks ranking seventh in the nation in scoring at 83.3 points a game, which is right there with Baylor's 85.3. Eric Musselman is one of my favorite college coaches. His past teams have a history of not getting rattled in the NCAA Tourney when falling behind. I trust Musselman and the Razorbacks to keep this a close game. |
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03-29-21 | Raptors -3 v. Pistons | 104-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
OK, Toronto it's time. The Raptors are four games out of the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They can not afford another loss this month to Detroit. Yes, the Pistons are 2-0 versus Toronto in March beating them 116-112 at home and 129-105 on the road March 3. Detroit, though, is in full rebuild. The Pistons are 2-8 in their last 10 games, including 0-4 during their past four games. The Raptors like to bomb from 3-point range. They rank ninth in 3-point accuracy. Detroit ranks 26th in defensive field goal percentage and 22nd in 3-point defense. |
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03-28-21 | Oregon +2 v. USC | Top | 68-82 | Loss | -104 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
USC reached this point by beating Drake and Kansas holding those two worthy opponents to a combined 29.2 percent shooting from the floor. It was a combination of outstanding Trojans defense and poor shooting by the Bulldogs and Jayhawks. I expect Oregon to shoot much better than those teams. I like the Ducks' ability to adapt and follow Dana Altman's tremendous coaching. The Ducks have shot 52 percent, or better, in five of their last seven games. They surprised Iowa, 95-80, by playing extremely fast. Oregon has the Pac-12's most efficient offense and also ranked No. 1 in 3-point percentage. The Hawkeyes seemed caught by surprise how well the Ducks played in transition. The Ducks hit 11 3-pointers against Iowa. Oregon is now 15-1 when making at least eight 3-point shots. USC ranks 173rd in 3-point defense. The Trojans hold a rebounding edge with their tremendous size. USC defeated Oregon, 72-58, at home on Feb. 22. That was a rare late-season defeat for Oregon, which is 13-2 in its last 15 games. I'm sure the astute Altman learned from that earlier loss to USC. The Ducks have the flexibility to play various effective styles of zone defenses and to also employ a deadly full court press. They can play fast or slow with equal efficiency. Oregon also has the outside shooting prowess to offset USC's size advantage. Oregon holds a free throw edge, too. The Ducks make 71.2 percent of their free throws. USC was the worst free throwing shooting team in the Pac-12 at 64.3 percent. The Ducks have reached the regional semifinal in four of the past five tournaments. They have covered 10 of the last 11 times they've been a 'dog in NCAA Tourney action. USC hasn't reached the Sweet 16 since 2007. |
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03-27-21 | Celtics v. Thunder +9.5 | 111-94 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
Boston is 2-5 in its last seven games and has been a major disappointment this season. The Celtics, though, acquired Evan Fournier at the trade deadline and could start to make a move. They showed that by upsetting the Bucks, 122-114, on the road Friday night. Oklahoma City is 2-1 in its last three games, but is in clear rebuild mode. The Thunder just lost their leading scorer and best player, Shai Gilgeious-Alexander, indefinitely with plantar fasciitis in his right foot. So if this were a long-term prognosis, I clearly would buy Celtics stock and drop any Thunder stock. But it's not. This is just a one-time thing and this particular situation favors Oklahoma City. Fournier is likely to make his Boston debut here. Moritz Wagner, another Boston newcomer, has just joined the rotation. So there's going to be a transition period. Boston just played two tough games against the Bucks, coming off a huge win that may have turned around its season. The Celtics have a bigger challenge on deck returning home to host emerging superstar Zion Williamson and the Pelicans in a revenge game on Monday. The Celtics are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following a victory. They are 0-6 ATS the past six times when playing without rest. The Thunder have been idle since Wednesday. Their young players are anxious to get back on the court to show what they can do. They should be up for this game. Boston won't. It's a flat spot for the Celtics. |
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03-27-21 | Oral Roberts +11.5 v. Arkansas | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 37 h 60 m | Show | |
I don't want to hear about a 15th-seed never making the Elite Eight. Nor do I want to hear about metrics, KenPom ratings and ESPN's Basketball Power Index. All I know is Oral Roberts is playing well, averages 81.5 points, is off stunning upsets of Ohio State and Florida and is getting double-digits here. I fully grasp that Arkansas averages 82 points and holds a rebounding edge on the Golden Eagles. I also know, however, that Oral Roberts was outrebounded by a combined 30 rebounds to the Buckeyes and Gators yet still won both of those tournament games. Oral Roberts has proven itself. The Golden Eagles are 19-7-1 ATS (73 percent) versus opponents with a winning record. They have an outstanding guard, Max Abmas, and a very good forward, Kevin Obanor. Oral Roberts ranks eighth in the nation in 3-point accuracy and is No. 2 in the country in free throw percentage at 81.3 percent. Arkansas can't match the Golden Eagles in those key areas. These two teams actually met back on Dec. 20. Oral Roberts led 40-30 at halftime, before Arkansas pulled away for an 87-76 home win. I like Arkansas and its coach, Eric Musselman. I was on the Razorbacks against Colgate and Texas Tech. But I don't find the Razorbacks double-digits better than Oral Roberts right now. |
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03-26-21 | Cavs v. Lakers -3.5 | 86-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
The Lakers are in a lot of trouble minus LeBron James and Anthony Davis. They have lost their last four games. But LA hasn't sunk low enough where they can't cover a short point spread at home against the hapless Cavaliers, who are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games. Cleveland is down several big men with Andre Drummond sitting out waiting for a contract buyout and JaVale McGree traded to the Nuggets yesterday. Cleveland may also be missing its best player and leading scorer, guard Collin Sexton.
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03-25-21 | Boise State v. Memphis -4 | Top | 56-59 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 21 m | Show |
There's only one way to look at this game - and it's not backing the Mountain West Conference team, Boise State. Memphis holds a clear class difference on Boise State not fully reflected in the betting line. The Tigers are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Their only losses during this span occurred to Houston, the No. 6 rated team in the nation. Those defeats were by two and three points, respectively. Memphis has taken care of business when favored covering 10 of the last 11 times in that role. The Tigers also are a blazing 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games, including covering in their last seven games. Boise State, on the other hand, played its best ball early in the season. They are far from peak form now. If the Broncos didn't nip SMU, 85-84, in their first round NIT game they would be 0-5 in their last five games. The Broncos played Houston back at the start of the season and lost by 10 points on the road. If the Broncos are going to hang in they'll have to do it without Abu Kigab and Max Rice. Kigab is the Broncos' second-leading scorer and rebounder. He's also considered their best defender. Rice is part of the Broncos' guard rotation and a good perimeter shooter. Both were hurt late in the season. Memphis has a tall frontcourt. The Tigers are an excellent defensive team ranking No. 2 nationally in 3-point defense and ninth in defensive field goal percentage. The Tigers displayed their depth, athleticism and defense in rolling past Dayton, 71-60, as 5 1/2-point favorites in their first round NIT matchup. The Tigers grabbed 18 more boards than the Flyers. |
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03-24-21 | Hornets v. Rockets +3.5 | Top | 122-97 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
The record shows 12-30 for Houston. But are the Rockets really that bad? No, not when they are healthy. The Rockets are nearly back to full strength with John Wall, Christian Wood and Victor Oladipo all available. Houston has enough talent to be respectable. However, to get behind the Rockets you have to believe that they believe in themselves. Is the mental aspect there? It should be after the Rockets snapped a humiliating, franchise-worse 20-game losing streak with a smashing 117-99 home win against the Raptors this past Monday. Joy. Relief. Confidence. The Rockets expressed all of those emotions following that victory. Oladipo even sat out that game as the Rockets chose to give him a rest day. Wall and Wood played well against Toronto. This is important in case Oladipo sits out again as his name is being bantered about in trade rumors. Equally important in this handicap is going against the Hornets. I don't find Charlotte a very good team especially now with star rookie LaMelo Ball likely out for the rest of the season after suffering a broken wrist. Ball was instrumental in the Hornets defeating the Rockets, 119-94, last month with 24 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds. Ball was injured this past Saturday. Charlotte beat San Antonio, 100-97, in its last game this past Monday. Teams often play extremely hard in the first game following a major injury to their star player. The Hornets also were fortunate to draw the Spurs in a flat spot playing in their first home game since returning from a five-game road swing. The Spurs looked and played tired in that game. Now it's the Hornets' turn to be tired as this marks their fifth game in eight days. They've been on the road for the past nine days. The Hornets return to Charlotte following this matchup. The Hornets are 2-7 (22 percent) ATS the past nine times after winning their previous game. They also have a history of struggling when playing in Houston going 3-14-2 ATS during their last 19 visits. Stephen Nover Free Wednesday Play Spurs plus 6 hosting Clippers Gregg Popovich in an underdog role and a home one at that. Sign me up for the Spurs here. San Antonio has covered 68 percent of the time it has been a 'dog the past 28 times. The Spurs will have around 3,200 fans for this game, just the third time this season spectators are allowed to attend San Antonio home contests. The Clippers are playing well, but this spot sets up nicely for the Spurs. There is line value because the Spurs lost, 100-97, at home to the Hornets in their last game two days ago. The backstory to that defeat, though, was the Spurs had just returned home following a successful 3-2 five-game road trip that had concluded Saturday night in Milwaukee. The Spurs came out flat against Charlotte and could not recover. I see the Spurs performing much better against the Clippers, a team they dislike because of the presence of Kawhi Leonard. You may recall Leonard forcing his way out of San Antonio during the summer of 2018. That earned him the lasting enmity of the San Antonio population. The Spurs certainly got up for the Clippers when the teams last met on Jan. 5 in Los Angeles. San Antonio won, 116-113, as 7 1/2-point 'dogs. The Clippers enter this matchup off an impressive, 119-110, home victory against the Hawks this past Monday. That snapped the Hawks' eight-game win streak. LA, however, has failed to cover four of the last five times it has been a road favorite. |
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03-24-21 | Mavs v. Wolves +8.5 | 128-108 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
The Mavericks are talented. They also are young and could be facing an unexpected tough battler here. Riding high after a 40-point road victory against the Trail Blazers this past Sunday, the Mavericks have had three days to enjoy themselves. Their past five games have been against the Nuggets, two versus the Clippers and two against the Trail Blazers. Now they get to step way down in class drawing the hapless Timberwolves. Dallas does not have a good track record in these instances going 5-16 ATS (24 percent) the past 21 times facing below .500 opponents. Minnesota has covered four of its last seven games. Anthony Edwards now becomes the top rookie of the year candidate with LeMelo Ball likely out for the year. Edwards is playing well. Karl-Anthony Towns gives the Timberwolves the best big man on the floor. This is the second meeting between the two teams. Dallas defeated Minnesota, 127-122, failing to cover as 10-point home favorites on Feb. 8. The Timberwolves lost that one by five points despite not having Towns, while the Mavericks had their two big stars, Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis.
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03-23-21 | Stetson v. Coastal Carolina -7 | Top | 72-77 | Loss | -117 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
It's not often I write that the Sun Belt Conference holds a major class difference. But that's the case here with Coastal Carolina going against Stetson of the Atlantic Sun Conference in a semifinal matchup of the CBI Tournament. Coastal Carolina is one of the best teams in the Sun Belt. The Chanticleers are 15-6 while Stetson is 10-13 competing in the Atlantic Sun, one of the weakest conferences in Division I. The Hatters were 3-4 before upsetting disinterested Bowling Green, 53-52, on Monday to reach this semifinal matchup. One win and you're in the semifinals? Hey it's the CBI Tournament. Stetson is 1-4 ATS following a win. The Hatters have a cool nickname, but that's about the only good thing I can say. They are mediocre offensively and well below average on defense. Coastal Carolina ranks 22nd in the country in scoring averaging 80.4 points. The Chanticleers also ranked 10th in defensive field goal percentage. They just beat Bryant, 93-82, on Monday. Bryant averages nearly 20 more points per game than Stetson. The Chanticleers play fast and are strong on the offensive glass ranking 12th nationally in offensive rebounding rate. Stetson ranks 227th in defensive field goal percentage. Coastal Carolina can get sloppy handling the ball, but the Hatters lack the defense to take advantage.
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03-22-21 | Pacers v. Bucks -9.5 | 113-140 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
The Pacers have failed to cover during their last five visits to Milwaukee. I see that streak continuing. The Bucks are playing their best ball going 11-1 in their last 12 games, including winning their past six. They have matched up well to the Pacers winning and covering six of the last seven games, including downing Indiana, 130-110, at home early last month. Giannis Antetokounmpo had a Triple Double in that victory. Milwaukee is clicking, in part, because point guard Jrue Holiday is back in the groove and newcomer P.J. Tucker looks like an excellent fit with his defense, professionalism and intensity. The spot sets up extremely well, too, for the Bucks. This is just the Bucks' second game in five days. Indiana, however, is playing its third game in four days and second in two days having gone overtime on Sunday to nip the Heat, 109-106. The Pacers rallied from five down in OT to defeat the Heat for the second time in three days with both wins coming in Miami. This is an extremely difficult feat. So kudos to the Pacers. But they are two levels below the Bucks and aren't likely to have much left in the tank following their road sweep of the Heat. |
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03-22-21 | Ducks v. Wild -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
The Wild return to Minnesota in embarrassing fashion having lost two straight games to the Avalanche. There's no shame in losing to the Avs in Denver, but there is when you're outscored, 11-1, like Minnesota was. Luckily for the Wild, they have a patsy awaiting them - the rebuilding Ducks, losers of 14 of their last 17 games. Minnesota hasn't lost three in a row all season. I certainly don't believe that streak will be broken here. I'm so sure that I'm willing to take plus price juice by laying 1 1/2 goals on the puck line since I'm not in the habit of laying such a hefty money line price. Minnesota is on an eight-game home win streak with five of the last seven victories during that streak coming by multiple goals. Anaheim's last five losses have been by a combined 20 goals, an average loss of four goals per game. The Ducks average a puny 2.2 goals per game, which ranks 29th. The Wild are the seventh-best defensive team in the NHL. The key will be if Minnesota can score enough to cover the puck line. The Wild have been way underwhelming on the power play. However, Anaheim has serious goalie problems. Starting goalie John Gibson is out with injury. This leaves 40-year-old Ryan Miller and third-stringer Anthony Stolarz for the Ducks' netminder choices. Miller is well past his prime. The Ducks gave Stolarz his first start of the season this past Saturday. It didn't go well. He was pulled after allowing two goals on 14 shots in a 5-1 loss to Arizona. The offensively-starved Coyotes had entered that matchup having scored only four goals in their last five games. |
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03-22-21 | Ohio +5.5 v. Creighton | 58-72 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 16 m | Show | |
One of these teams is being disrespected with this betting line - and it's not Creighton. I understand Ohio University isn't held in high regard being from the Mid-American Conference. But all the Bobcats do is cover spreads. They have covered 76 percent of their past 29 games, including going 5-0 ATS the past five times as an underdog. Ohio deserves respect for not only beating Toledo and Buffalo in the MAC Tournament, but taking out Virginia, 62-58, in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. According to the Kenpom adjusted offensive efficiency ratings, the Bobcats rank 30th. They have a balanced scoring attack and showed their defensive abilities holding high-scoring Buffalo 13 points below its season average. Jacob Preston gives Ohio one of the best all-around players in the country. Creighton has endured a difficult season. The Bluejays shouldn't be trusted in this point spread range. They were extremely fortunate to get past lightly regarded Santa Barbara, 63-62, in the first round. I also don't trust Creighton's current form. The Bluejays are averaging a puny 56.6 points per game during their last three games.
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03-21-21 | Lakers +10 v. Suns | Top | 94-111 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
Get ready for a new Pacific Division champion because the defending champion Lakers aren't going to be heard from until the playoffs. Down Anthony Davis and now LeBron James, the Lakers are far from elite anymore. Through some 40-plus games in the season, there are just three elite teams in the Western Conference: the Jazz, Clippers and Suns. The Lakers have been erased from that list. But I don't question the Lakers' heart. They've had 24 hours to digest losing James to a sprained ankle, suffered against the Hawks in a 99-94 home loss Saturday. This will be their first full game since James suffered his ankle injury. LA will be highly motivated to perform well against a rising power especially in this first game of James being out. The Suns are an emerging power. Devin Booker is nearing superstar status. Chris Paul still is highly effective. However, the Suns are young and haven't been in this role before laying such a huge number against this opponent. I doubt the Suns bring their "A" game knowing they already defeated the Lakers by 10 points in LA earlier this month when James was playing. I'm expecting a Suns letdown and a huge effort by the Lakers with the result being an LA cover.
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03-21-21 | Texas Tech v. Arkansas +2 | 66-68 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show | |
There's no grey area with this matchup. Either you believe in Arkansas' fast and flashy way, or Texas Tech's old-school, defensive approach. I'm going the Arkansas way. I like the current form the Razorbacks are in. They have three big scorers and rank seventh in the nation in scoring at 83.3 points a game. Arkansas has covered nine of its last 11 games and is 18-9-1 (67 percent) ATS on the season. Texas Tech has failed to cover 14 of the last 19 times it has met opponents with a winning record.
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03-21-21 | Magic +8.5 v. Celtics | 96-112 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Aaron Gordon is one of those underrated players who isn't worth anything on the betting line. Maybe he should be. Orlando is 4-1 ATS since Gordon returned from injury. Gordon scored 38 points in helping lead the Magic to a 121-113 win against the Nets this past Friday at home halting Brooklyn's six-game win streak and ending the Magic's nine-game losing streak. So the Magic should enter this matchup with boosted confidence not to mention strong revenge motivation for a 124-97 mid-January road loss to the Celtics during their previous get together. The other part of this handicap is fading Boston. The Celtics are not a team to be backing right now losers of four of their past five, including their last three. Discount a 134-107 win against the Rockets, who have the second-worst record in the NBA, and the Celtics are averaging 106 points during their last four games. Both Orlando and Boston give up an average of 111 points. Orlando would be 6-1 in its last seven games if given more than eight points. So, I ask who are the Celtics to be laying this many points? |
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03-21-21 | Devils +1.5 v. Penguins | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
These teams are well acquainted with each other having played twice during the past three days. New Jersey won, 3-2, this past Thursday and Pittsburgh prevailed, 3-1, on Saturday. I'm expecting another close game. The Devils would be 6-2 in their last eight games if given 1 1/2 goals. They haven't lost by more than two goals in any of their past eight games. The scene shifts to Pittsburgh after Thursday and Saturday's games were played in New Jersey. The Devils have won four of the past five times in Pittsburgh. The Penguins also are 1-5 the last six times when playing without rest. This has been a tight series the past three days. The Devils beat the Penguins Thursday and played them even during 5-on-5 action Saturday, but lost because of special teams. New Jersey went 0-for-4 on its power play chances, while the Penguins scored on one of their two power play opportunities. Multiple injuries to the Penguins have helped make this such a close series. The Penguins are down their No. 2 and No. 3 centers with Evgeni Malkin and Teddy Blueger out. Forward Brandon Tanev is questionable. Tanev has the second-highest plus mark on the Penguins. |
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03-21-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Illinois -7 | 71-58 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Loyola's always a nice NCAA Tourney story. But the Ramblers aren't nearly in Illinois' class. Yes the point spread reflects that, but not to the full degree. Just how good is Illinois? The Illini very well could be the second-best team in the nation next to Gonzaga. The Illini are playing at this high level going 15-1 SU, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games. The combination of Kofi Cockburn and Ayo Dosunmu are too much for Loyola to keep this within single digits. Illinois has done this against major competition, too. The Illini are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games versus above .500 foes. Loyola hasn't been good when getting points failing to cover eight of the last 11 times in that role.
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03-20-21 | Grand Canyon +14.5 v. Iowa | 74-86 | Win | 100 | 16 h 55 m | Show | |
Grand Canyon has been an underdog five times this season. The Antelopes covered every one of those games. Iowa is a great team, but Grand Canyon matches up well to the Hawkeyes and should go 6-0 ATS as an underdog. The Hawkeyes are led by star senior center Luka Garza. Grand Canyon has a pair of big men - 7-footer Asbjorn Midtgaard and 6-10 Alessandro Lever - that can bother Garza on both sides of the floor. The Antelopes ranked 16th in the nation in 2-point shooting at 55.4 percent because of their inside scoring. They also were 35th in the nation in offensive rebounding. Iowa doesn't have the guard play to force many turnovers, which is where Grand Canyon has some vulnerabilities. Making the NCAA Tournament is a huge deal for the Antelopes because they never made it before having just started playing Division I basketball eight years ago. Grand Canyon will be pumped up while all the pressure will be on Iowa. You have to wonder, too, if the Big Ten could be overrated following Ohio State and Purdue losing as big favorites during Friday's first-round tournament action.
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03-19-21 | Morehead State +13 v. West Virginia | 67-84 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
Look out for Morehead State. The Eagles are a legitimate sleeper on a huge 19-1 roll with their latest victory being an upset of top-seeded Belmont in the Ohio Valley Conference. I like the momentum and confidence the Eagles bring into the tournament. They rank in the top 35 in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Eagles also have one of the top freshmen big men in the country in 6-foot-10 Johni Broome. He destroyed Belmont in the OVC title game with 27 points and 12 rebounds. Broome can hold his own against West Virginia's rugged inside force Derek Culver. West Virginia is 1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS in its last four games. Maybe the Mountaineers can just turn the switch, but I certainly don't see them winning by double-digits.
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03-19-21 | Liberty v. Oklahoma State -7 | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 16 h 41 m | Show | |
Liberty plays extremely slow, but is very efficient offensively. The Flames could frustrate Oklahoma State. But I don't believe that will happen. The Cowboys are hot, played a far more difficult schedule and feature superstar guard Cade Cunningham. That combination should enable them to cover this mid-range number. Oklahoma State emerged as a Big 12 Conference power knocking off No. 2 Baylor in the conference semifinals before falling to Texas, 91-86, in the conference tourney title game. That loss may actually help the Cowboys because they won't be taking Liberty lightly after defeating six ranked teams this month. Oklahoma State has covered seven of the eight times it has met a foe with a winning percentage above .600. The Flames earned their way to the NCAA Tournament by capturing the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament. I regard the Atlantic Sun as a bottom-five conference. One of Liberty's non-league victories came against Lancaster Bible, 90-49. So that padded the Flames' season statistics. When Liberty went up against NCAA Tournament teams Missouri and Purdue earlier in the season they lost by 9 and 13 points.
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03-19-21 | Oral Roberts +16 v. Ohio State | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
Ohio State does not have a good recent history in the NCAA Tourney. The Buckeyes enter this first round matchup banged-up and off a grueling four-day Big Ten Tournament that didn't conclude until Sunday. The Buckeyes had two overtime games, too, in the Big Ten Tourney. Oral Roberts, on the other hand, has had ample rest and preparation time having won the Summit League Tournament back on March 9. The Golden Eagles average nearly four more points than Ohio State and lead the nation in free throw percentage at 82.4 percent in made 3-pointers. They have one of the best guards in the nation, Max Abmas, to go with inside scoring. So this is going to be a very tough matchup for Ohio State, which may not be 100 percent physically and mentally ready.
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03-19-21 | Colgate v. Arkansas -8 | 68-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Colgate and Arkansas are two of the highest-scoring teams in the nation. But that's where the similarity ends. The Razorbacks are 11-2 in their last 13 games with all of their victories during this span occurring versus SEC opponents. Arkansas has won eight games against NCAA Tournament teams, including Alabama, Missouri, Florida, LSU, North Texas, Abilene Christian and Oral Roberts. Arkansas has the best player on the court, too, in Moses Moody. Colgate has only played 15 games this season - all of which were in their Patriot League. Now the Raiders are asked to stay within single digits of maybe the best team in the SEC. I don't see it. Arkansas is 8-2 ATS the last 10 times it has been favored, covering against better teams than Colgate.
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03-18-21 | Hornets +8 v. Lakers | 105-116 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 53 m | Show | |
The defending world champion Lakers of LeBron James are the epitome of the big-market, public team. The Hornets are the complete opposite. They are small-market and almost always flying below the radar screen. This often leads to value in backing the Hornets and fading the Lakers - in the right circumstances. This is such a spot. Charlotte is coming off a 129-104 blowout loss to the Nuggets in Denver Wednesday night. The good news for the Hornets from that stinging defeat was none of their players reached the 28-minute playing mark. The Hornets are healthy, which they haven't been, and shouldn't be weary for this matchup especially given their solid team depth. They actually have one of the league's deepest backcourts with potential rookie-of-the-year LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Devonte Graham and Malik Monk. Previous to losing to Denver, the Hornets were 5-1 in their last six games. They are an amazing 11-1 ATS following a non point spread cover. The Lakers are the ones with a bit of a fatigue element as this marks their third game in four days. LA is coming off blowout victories against the Warriors this past Monday and Timberwolves from Tuesday. The Lakers host the hot Hawks, winners of six in a row, on Saturday. So this looms as a real flat spot for LA. Often overvalued when playing at home, the Lakers are 3-8 ATS the last 11 times as home chalk when laying six or more points. So this isn't their best role. |
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03-18-21 | SMU v. Boise State | Top | 84-85 | Win | 100 | 31 h 30 m | Show |
Boise State is the No. 2 seed while SMU is the No. 3 seed for the National Invitational Tournament. The higher seed doesn't always mean that team is the better one. But in this case it's justified. SMU averages 67.1 points per game. Boise State trumps that, averaging 76.2 points. The Broncos also give up fewer points per game, surrendering 66.3 compared to SMU's 67.1. Boise State checks another box having senior leadership and a star guard in Derrick Alston Jr. There also is a COVID-19 angle here that works against SMU. This will be just the Mustangs' fourth games since the start of February. SMU last played a regular season game Feb. 8. The Mustangs weren't in action again until this past Friday when they lost 74-71 to Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference Tournament. The Mustangs were 5-point favorites in that game. The combination of COVID-19 and bad weather in Dallas caused the Mustangs to miss the final eight games of their regular season. So I don't see them being anywhere near peak form here.
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03-17-21 | Sharks v. Golden Knights -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
Returning home from a six-game road trip, the Golden Knights were far from sharp when they hosted San Jose this past Monday. Sure enough Las Vega was flat. But the Golden Knights still managed to beat San Jose, 2-1. Now the Golden Knights are more rested and primed to destroy the opponent they hate the most. Las Vegas is the vastly superior team and won't lack motivation. The Golden Knights are third defensively giving up 2.2 goals per game. Marc-Andre Fleury is in the argument for best goalie this season. Las Vegas is a top-10 scoring team. The Sharks give up the most goals per game in the league at 3.5. They also allow the second-most shots on goal. Las Vegas has defeated San Jose five times in a row. The Sharks are 6-13 the past 19 times when playing on one day's rest. The Golden Knights have won 69 percent of their last 52 home contests. Kill spot here so I'm laying 1 1/2 goals on the puck line. |
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03-16-21 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Wild | 0-3 | Loss | -136 | 16 h 59 m | Show | |
I don't want to fully step in against a hot Minnesota Wild team, but I do believe Arizona is going to throw its best punch here. The Coyotes are desperate to avoid being swept three games by Minnesota. So I'm going to lay the juice and take a 1 1/2 goal cushion with the puck line. The Wild shut out the Coyotes, 4-0, this past Friday and followed that up with a 4-1 victory this past Sunday. Those scores are misleading, though. Both games were tied entering the final period. Can the Coyotes bounce back? They aren't some bottom-feeder. The Coyotes are a .500 team that won't lack motivation. They've shown a propensity to come through in these types of situations going 7-2 the past nine times when playing for the third time in four days. Arizona would be 10-5 in its last 15 games if given plus 1 1/2 goals. |
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03-14-21 | Hurricanes v. Red Wings +1.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
Yes, the Red Wings are a bad team. One reason for this is lack of depth. Detroit has been battered by injuries. Now, though, the Red Wings have gotten healthier. Their best center, Dylan Larkin, and defenseman Troy Stecher are back in the lineup. The Red Wings showed life with those two back in the lineup taking on powerful Tampa Bay during their last two games. The Red Wings lost 4-3 in overtime and then knocked off the reigning Stanley Cup champions, 6-4, this past Thursday. That was a season high in goals for Detroit. Here's an interesting quote from Red Wings coach Jeff Blashill: "... When we lost a number of guys, it hurt us, and when we've been healthy, we've played pretty good hockey overall." Backed by a 1 1/2-goal cushion on the puck line, I believe Detroit can hang in if not ambush the red-hot Hurricanes. Carolina could be in a letdown spot having won seven in a row. The Hurricanes have been relying on a highly effective power play unit to supplement their goal production. They may not get so many calls, however, being on the road. This is Carolina's first road game in 12 days. The Hurricanes have won seven in a row, but three of those victories came against the struggling Predators and three of their victories during their win streak occurred in overtime. Carolina also is going to be minus injured Vincent Trocheck. He's having a tremendous season leading the Hurricanes in goals with 13 and in points with 24. |
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03-14-21 | VCU +3 v. St Bonaventure | Top | 65-74 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
These are two great defensive teams. So getting points, no matter how few, really matters. I believe Virginia Commonwealth is slightly better than St. Bonaventure so taking points here in this Atlantic 10 Conference Championship Game is a bonus. VCU and St. Bonaventure last met on Feb. 12. The Rams won the home game, 67-64. despite making just 36 percent of their shots. Their superstar, Nah'Shon Hyland, had a bad shooting game making just 5 of 16 shots from the floor. St. Bonaventure shot 44 percent from the field. Yet VCU still won. That's telling. The Rams pulled down 19 offensive rebounds and forced 18 turnovers. I'm expecting the Rams to play their trademark pressing defense, which is going to force turnovers, and to shoot better from the floor especially Hyland. VCU has better depth than the Bonnies. The Rams haven't permitted an opponent to reach 70 points in regulation during their past 11 games.
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03-13-21 | Ohio v. Buffalo -2 | 84-69 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
Buffalo has won 10 of its past 11 games, including the last seven. One of the Bulls' more impressive victories came against Ohio during the last game of the regular season on Feb. 27. The Bulls buried the Bobcats, 86-66, on the road. Not only do the Bulls rank ninth in the nation in scoring at 82.7 points a game, but they are fifth in defensive 3-point percentage. Ohio is reliant on its perimeter and 3-point shooting. Buffalo is going to get its points. The Bulls have scored at least 74 points in all but two of their games this season. They also have loads of tournament experience having reached the MAC title game five times new since 2015. The Bulls have won four of the past five MAC championship games, including 2019. The Bulls have six players on their roster from that championship victory.
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03-12-21 | Rockets +17 v. Jazz | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
As bad as the Rockets are - and they might be the worst team in the NBA with 14 consecutive losses - they have never been more than 10 1/2-point underdogs. Until now. Utah has the best record in the NBA and is home. So I don't dispute the oddsmaker's thinking on making this such a high number. It's justified. I just think circumstances work against Utah covering this large of a number. Yes, the Rockets are way, way down and are going to be missing veteran John Wall, Eric Gordon and P.J. Tucker. Christian Wood still is out, too. But the Rockets have some youthful talent with Kevin Porter Jr., Jae'Sean Tate, Kenyon Martin Jr. and Sterling Brown. This is their opportunity. So they should play hard. I doubt the Jazz will be motivated to produce an "A" level performance against such a low caliber opponent especially coming off All-Star break. Utah last played nine days ago. Even if the Jazz do build a huge advantage the backdoor should swing wide open for the Rockets to stay within this big of a point spread. That's because the Jazz embark on a five-game, nine-day road trip beginning Sunday at Golden State. So I'm not anticipating Utah's starters to log big minutes here. |
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03-12-21 | Akron v. Buffalo -4 | Top | 74-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Akron doesn't force many turnovers and is a below average defensive rebounding team. I don't trust the Zips on offense either. Buffalo ranks fifth in the nation in 3-point defense. The Zips lack the consistency Buffalo has shown. The Bulls have scored 80 or more points in seven of their last nine games. They are averaging 84.6 points during their past six games. On the season, the Bulls rank ninth in scoring at 82.7 points and are the best offensive rebounding team in the country. They can really exploit Akron's weakness in defensive rebounding. The Bulls are peaking at the right time. They are 9-1 in their last 10 games, riding a six-game win streak. Their lone loss during this span came to Toledo, which is the best team in the MAC.
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03-12-21 | Missouri v. Arkansas -4 | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
I liked the job Eric Musselman did at Nevada-Reno and I like what he's accomplishing at Arkansas. The Razorbacks are peaking with eight straight victories. They have covered nine of their last 11 games. Arkansas has scored at least 81 points in six of its last seven games. Missouri ranks 227th defensively yielding 72.1 points per game. Missouri is 16-8. The Tigers are fortunate to have that record, though, as they are 6-1 in games decided by five points or less. They are 1-6 ATS the past seven times they've gone against an above .500 foe.
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03-12-21 | Georgetown v. Seton Hall -2.5 | Top | 66-58 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
Kudos to Georgetown for upsetting Villanova on Thursday, 72-71, on a pair of free throws by Dante Harris with 4.7 seconds left. But now the Hoyas have to play a third straight day having also upset Marquette two days ago. Georgetown faces a refreshed and rejuvenated Seton Hall squad. The Pirates knocked off St. John's on Thursday. The Pirates' last played six days ago before defeating the Red Storm. That victory and cover against St. John's pushed Seton Hall coach Kevin Willard's point spread record to 10-0 in Big East Tournament games. The Pirates are 18-7-1 (72 percent) in their last 26 neutral site games. This matchup is being played at neutral site Madison Square Garden. Seton Hall is the better team with the stronger bench and best player on the court in Sandro Mamukelashvili. The Hoyas lack depth, which could prove telling given this being their third game in three days. |
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03-11-21 | Cal Poly v. Cal-Irvine -15 | 51-58 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
Twice these teams have met this season. The results were similar. Cal-Irvine won 68-49 on Jan. 22 and beat Cal Poly-SLO again, 67-44, on Jan. 23. The margins of those victories were 19 and 23 points, respectively. I'm not anticipating anything closer this time around either. Cal Poly surprised Cal-State Fullerton, 87-82, two days ago in the opening of this Big West Conference Tournament. The Titans were rusty having played just twice following a COVID-19 pause. Still, Cal-Poly scoring that many points was an outlier. The Mustangs are one of the worst teams in the nation. Even with that victory, they are 2-17 in their last 19 games. The Mustangs entered that matchup averaging 59.5 points in their previous five games while ranked 342nd in scoring and 335th in field goal percentage. Cal Irvine isn't going to take Cal Poly lightly now after seeing what the Mustangs did to Cal-State Fullerton. Unlike the Titans, the Anteaters enter tournament play on the upswing winning six of their last seven, including a 15-point road win against Long Beach State in their last game five days ago. The Anteaters rank 29th defensively giving up 63.4 points per game. They are seventh in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. Cal-Poly won't be able to handle that strong of a defense just like in the first two games between the teams. |
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03-11-21 | Rider v. St. Peter's -5.5 | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
Rider is stepping up in class meeting Saint Peter's in this quarterfinal matchup of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament. The Broncos lost 13 of 18 conference games, but reached this game by upsetting Canisius in the first round. Don't expect a second straight conference tournament upset win from Rider. Only 12 teams in the nation give up fewer points per game than Saint Peter's, which allows 62. The Peacocks also rank No. 3 in the country in defensive field goal percentage. Sparked by KC Ndefo, the Peacocks rank first in blocked shots. Ndefo, a tremendous leaper, leads the nation in blocked shots at 3.7 per game. Rider ranks 275th in scoring at 67.4 points. The Broncos are hoping to keep this close because Saint Peter's is a weak offensive team. The Broncos, however, surrender nearly 74 points a game and are well below average defensively. Note, too, that Saint Peter's has covered seven of its last eight neutral site games.
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03-10-21 | Nebraska v. Penn State -6 | Top | 66-72 | Push | 0 | 17 h 26 m | Show |
This is the spot where Nebraska really is going to miss its leading scorer and star player, Teddy Allen, who decided not to finish the season. Penn State scores more points and gives up fewer points than Nebraska. That's why the Nittany Lions are mid-sized favorites in this first round Big Ten Conference matchup being played at neutral site Indianapolis. But there's more than just that. I don't trust any of Nebraska's players to step up in Allen's absence. Penn State, on the other hand, has been getting strong performances down the stretch from Myreon Jones, its leading scorer, and Seth Lundy, who is coming off a 31-point scoring game in a 66-61 victory against Maryland this past Sunday. The Nittany Lions enter this matchup with the confidence of winning three of their last four, including that upset road win against Maryland. Another one of Penn State's victories during this recent four-game span was 86-83 against Nebraska. The Cornhuskers had Allen in that game and he torched Penn State for 41 points on 16-of-24 shooting from the floor. Yet Nebraska couldn't win even with Allen at his best. Now the Cornhuskers don't have him. Penn State also is a far better free throw shooting team than Nebraska. The Nittany Lions rank 98th in free throw percentage at 73 percent. Nebraska, by contrast, ranks 333rd in free throw percentage at 63.5 percent. |
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03-10-21 | Coyotes v. Avalanche -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
Colorado has lost consecutive games to the Coyotes and Ducks both as a big home favorite. The Avalanche didn't have star center Nathan MacKinnon in either of those games. MacKinnon is set to return tonight and I look for the Avalanche to get short revenge on Arizona after losing, 3-2, to the Coyotes two days ago. This is Arizona's fourth game in six days and the Coyotes are playing in Denver's high altitude. So this game could get out of hand in Colorado's favor during the third period if not earlier. Until that Monday loss, the Avalanche had beaten Arizona six times in a row at home. The Coyotes' upset win against Colorado on Monday came with a price: Starting goalie Darcy Kuemper left early in the third period with an injury. He won't play today. |
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03-09-21 | Cal Poly v. CS-Fullerton -5.5 | Top | 87-82 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play-in game to the Big West Conference Tournament, which is being held at neutral site Mandalay Bay hotel in Las Vegas. The oddsmaker doesn't put much emphasis on the small Big West Conference. The opening number shows this. Cal Poly SLO is absolutely terrible. The Mustangs have lost 17 of their last 18 games. They rank 342nd in scoring at 60.9 points and are 335th in field goal percentage. The Mustangs' scoring has been even worse lately as they are averaging 59.5 points during their past five games. Cal-State Fullerton averages 76.7 points, nearly 16 more points per game than Cal Poly. The Titans hold a huge talent gap. Tray Maddox Jr. is second in the Big West in scoring at 16.5 points per game. Josh Hall is the No. 2 rebounder in the conference and Vincent Lee leads the Big West in field goal percentage making 58.6 percent of his shots. So why did the oddsmaker set such a short line on the Titans? Cal-State Fullerton had a COVID-19 pause after its Feb. 20 game. The Titans didn't play again until this past Friday and Saturday. They lost both of those games to San Diego, a former Division II school ineligible to participate in the tournament since they are transitioning to the Big West. So those games were basically meaningless. The Titans used those matchups to get the rust off and as a tune-up for the tournament. The Titans know they must step up their game with UC Irvine on deck to face the winner of this matchup. The Titans have the perfect patsy to face in the Mustangs.
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03-09-21 | McNeese State -2.5 v. Southeastern Louisiana | 68-71 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
Still another case here of the lower seed being the better team. McNeese State, the No. 9 seed in this Southland Conference Tournament, ranks 21st in the nation in scoring at 80.8 points. Southeast Louisiana, the No. 8 seed, gives up 78 points. The Cowboys, with Keyshawn Feazell down low, should have too much scoring and rebounding for Southeast Louisiana, which was outrebounded, 43-30, by New Orleans in its previous game.
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03-08-21 | Senators v. Oilers -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Edmonton is 4-0 versus Ottawa this season. The Oilers are in a good spot to make it 5-0. Obviously the oddsmaker agrees making the Oilers a massive favorite. I can't lay that price, but I can turn this into a plus price by getting involved with Edmonton on the puck line. The Oilers beat the Senators by multiple goals in three of their four games. The Oilers draw the Senators after Ottawa just upset the Flames on the road, 4-3, in a shootout Sunday night. The Senators got away with being whistled for 10 penalties. It was just Ottawa's 15th away victory in its last 67 road contests. NHL points leader Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who ranks third in the league in points, are in line for huge performances. The Senators have the worst defense in the league surrendering 3.9 goals per game. The Senators are likely to start third-string goalie Joey Daccord, too. Matt Murray played last night and backup Marcus Hogberg is on injured reserve.
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03-07-21 | Florida v. Tennessee -4.5 | 54-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm going with revenge, home-court and the superior defense in this matchup. All these reasons put me on Tennessee. The Volunteers have had this matchup circled ever since Florida dealt them their worst loss of the season, 75-49, back on Jan. 19. Tennessee is trying to regain the dominance it showed earlier in the season. Florida hasn't been playing that well either, though. The Gators are 3-3 SU and ATS in their last six games. They lost as 4-point home favorites, 72-70, to Missouri this past Wednesday in their last game. Tennessee has the stingiest defense in the SEC. The Volunteers rank among the top-30 defenses nation-wide. They give up seven fewer points per game than Florida. |
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03-06-21 | CS-Fullerton +2.5 v. UC San Diego | 78-85 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
I'm looking for Cal State-Fullerton to get revenge against San Diego after the Tritons nipped the Titans, 89-85, on Friday. The Titans outrebounded San Diego by 17 boards, but the Tritons were on fire with their shooting. San Diego shot 52 percent from the field and connected on 16 of 33 3-pointers for 48 percent. The Titans shot 49 percent from the floor and made 7 of 20 3-pointers for 35 percent. San Diego has won just six games all season and half of those victories were against non-Division I opponents.
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03-06-21 | Alabama State +13.5 v. Jackson State | 54-79 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
Points are going to be at a premium here with such a low total. This low total is justified, though. Jackson State is a tremendous defensive team. However, the Tigers are extremely limited offensively. They rank among the bottom 20 teams in the nation in scoring at 63.1 points a game and shooting percentage at 37.9 percent. They also are a below average free throw shooting team. The Tigers are averaging only 58.5 points in regulation during their past five games. Alabama State can keep this within single digits. The Hornets are decent on the glass and averaging 68.2 points in their last eight games. |
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03-06-21 | Butler +13 v. Creighton | Top | 73-93 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
If you're going to have a college basketball coaching controversy don't have it happen right before conference tournament time. Unfortunately for Creighton that's what's going on now with its program. The Bluejays suspended their coach, Greg McDermott, two days ago for comparing his program to a plantation. McDermott's job hangs in the balance and the Bluejays' concentration level for this matchup comes into serious question. Creighton has not been playing well losing 72-60 to Villanova this past Wednesday. The Bluejays fell to Xavier, 77-69, in their previous game before Villanova. Butler, on the other hand, is showing signs of peaking. Unlike Creighton, the Bulldogs just defeated Villnova this past Sunday, 73-61. The Bulldogs also upset Seton Hall, 61-52, in their previous game before meeting Villanova. The Bulldogs are shaping up as a dangerous foe heading into next week's Big East Conference Tournament. They have surrendered just 58.6 points in their last three games. The Bluejays and Bulldogs met back on Jan. 16 when Creighton was playing much better. Yet the Bulldogs won, 70-66. Sparked by Chuck Harris, one of the better freshmen guards in the country, it wouldn't shock me if Butler won this game straight-up again. |
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03-05-21 | Lightning -1.5 v. Blackhawks | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
The Blackhawks are at least two levels, if not three levels, behind the defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning. The Blackhawks, though, played a spirited game on Thursday giving the Lightning all they could handle before falling, 3-2, when Tampa Bay scored with one second left in overtime. The Blackhawks blew a 2-0 second period lead. Tampa Bay should be more prepared this time around while the Blackhawks could be mentally down playing right away again without rest. The Lightning have defeated Chicago now five straight times on the road. The Lightning are 43-16 (73 percent) the past 59 times following a victory. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been the best goalie in hockey this season. He could get the call again. If not I'm fine with Tampa Bay backup goalie Curtis McElhinney. Likewise, Chicago could turn to backup goalie Malcolm Subban since this is a back-to-back spot. Subban surrendered five goals to the offensively-challenged Red Wings in his last start six days ago.
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03-05-21 | Old Dominion v. Western Kentucky -7 | 71-69 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 4 m | Show | |
Western Kentucky is the class of Conference USA at 10-2 in league and 17-5 overall. Old Dominion is 10-4 in league, but 14-6 overall. The Monarchs have fattened their record by playing four games against Charlotte and Middle Tennessee State during their last six games. Old Dominion is 4-10-1 ATS versus above .500 opponents. I don't see the Monarchs stepping up to keep things close here. Old Dominion can't hit 3-pointers, nor defend well against 3-pointers. Western Kentucky can exploit those perimeter weaknesses while dominating inside with 6-foot-11 star center Charles Bassley, who averages 17.8 points and 11.8 rebounds. I see a double-digit Hilltoppers victory.
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03-05-21 | Louisiana-Monroe v. South Alabama -5 | Top | 72-80 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
I have this matchup power-rated considerably higher, so high that it merits my strongest Sun Belt Conference play of the season. South Alabama enters this opening round Sun Belt Conference Tournament game in Pensacola, Fla., going 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games. The Jaguars average 11 points more per game than Louisiana-Monroe. The Jaguars have the best player in the matchup by far in guard Michael Flowers, who averages 20.8 points. Russell Harrison is the only player on the Warhawks averaging more than 12 points and he scored less than 13 points a game. South Alabama isn't a deep team, but that shouldn't matter here in this first-round tournament matchup. The Jaguars last played six days ago. Monroe went 5-13 for the worst mark in the Sun Belt Conference West Division. The Warhawks have averaged only 58 points during their last three games. South Alabama has scored at least 70 points in six of its last nine games. The Warhawks commit the most fouls in the Sun Belt and are bad at defending 3-point shots. South Alabama gets to the free throw line and ranks 65th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage. So the matchup edges definitely are there for South Alabama. |
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03-04-21 | Wyoming +16.5 v. Utah State | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Utah State hasn't been consistent enough to lay this large of a number. The Aggies are 4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS in their last eight games. The Cowboys are at their best in this role covering 14 of the past 18 times as a road 'dog. Wyoming has one of the better backcourt tandems in the Mountain West with Marcus Williams and Hunter Maldonado. The Cowboys also have been playing better defense holding their last three foes to an average of 68.6 points.
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