Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-25-21 | Rutgers +20.5 v. Michigan | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 40 h 16 m | Show | |
In Greg Schiano we trust. Schiano has turned around Rutgers making the Scarlet Knights respectable. Rutgers won three Big Ten games last season and nearly upset Michigan as an 11-point 'dog losing, 48-42, in triple overtime. Michigan is off to a fast start with three blowout victories against inferior competition. But Rutgers also is 3-0 with victories versus Temple, Syracuse and Delaware. Rutgers has forced eight turnovers and come up with 14 sacks. Scarlet Knights QB Noah Vedral isn't doing anything foolish. He's completed 71.6 percent of his throws with four TD passes and no interceptions. The Wolverines have a much bigger game on tap next week when they take on Wisconsin. That's a huge revenge game for Michigan, which lost by 38 points to the Badgers last year. The Scarlet Knights definitely can stay within three TD's of the Wolverines.
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09-25-21 | Notre Dame +6.5 v. Wisconsin | 41-13 | Win | 100 | 40 h 41 m | Show | |
I don't think Jack Coan and Notre Dame are getting enough respect here. Note this matchup is at neutral site Soldier Field in Chicago, not in Madison, Wis. Coan has erased the doubts I had about him entering the season completing nearly 64 percent of his passes for 828 yards and 8 TD's. Kyren Williams gives Notre Dame the best running back. Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz entered the program with a lot of hype. He had a monster game against Illinois in his first start - and then has gone downhill since then. He has yet to throw a TD this season. Penn State held Wisconsin to just 10 points. No way do I see Wisconsin being nearly a TD better than Notre Dame on a neutral field.
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09-24-21 | Liberty -6.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
Liberty may be the best team you don't know. The Flames have covered their last 10 games and are led by QB Malik Willis, the Lamar Jackson of college football and likely high draft pick. The Flames are 3-0 this season, which isn't surprising since they returned nearly all of their starters from last season's 10-1 team that upset Virginia Tech on the road and defeated Coastal Carolina in a bowl game. Willis is a dynamic superstar, who has the highest passer rating in the country. He's accounted for 11 TD's and hasn't thrown an interception. Syracuse is 2-1 beating Ohio and FCS foe Albany. The Orangemen lost, 17-7, to Rugers, a lower-tier Big Ten team. Syracuse is 5-16 in its last 21 games and has yet to demonstrate much of a passing attack. Liberty is very strong defensively returning nine starters from a top-25 defense of a year ago. I see Liberty covering for the ninth straight time in a favorite's role.
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09-23-21 | Liberty v. Mercury -9 | 82-83 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
The Liberty are one of the worst teams in WNBA history to make the playoffs at 12-20. They are 2-11 in their last 13 games. The Mercury should have no trouble here unless the Liberty hits a high percentage of their 3-point shots. I'm banking against that. New York relies on the shooting of Betnijah Laney and she's having a terrible month averaging only 9.8 points on 37.8 percent shooting from the floor. Phoenix should dominate inside with Britteny Griner, who has been tremendous following the Olympic break. Thanks to Griner, the Mercury has a huge size advantage on New York. The Liberty has just one player taller than 6-foot-2. The Liberty has failed to cover in six of their last seven games against Phoenix. It's a plus if Diana Taurasi is able to play. But the Mercury won't need her against this opponent having gone 13-4 versus foes with a losing record.
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09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers -10.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 148 h 11 m | Show |
The Packers are in a kill spot hosting a Detroit team that is much worse than its final score indicated from Week 1. The 49ers led the Lions, 31-10, at halftime. So the 49ers' 41-33 final is misleading. Make no mistake, the Lions are terrible. Their defense is slow, can't pressure the QB and the secondary just lost cornerback Jeff Okudah for the season. The Packers laid an egg in Week 1. They are eager to show the Monday night national TV audience just how potent they can be. Aaron Rodgers with a chip on his shoulder is a dangerous dude. Green Bay could not have asked for an easier pasty to achieve their atonement.
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09-19-21 | Chiefs -3.5 v. Ravens | 35-36 | Loss | -107 | 31 h 16 m | Show | |
All summer Andy Reid works on various offensive schemes and innovations. His work and creativity is unleashed during the first month of the season when opponents aren't fully prepared for it. The combination of Reid and superstar QB Patrick Mahomes has resulted in the Chiefs never losing a September game in 11 tries with Mahomes under center. Mahomes has a mind-boggling 35-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio during these games. The Ravens haven't been able to stop the Chiefs losing each of the last three seasons to Kansas City. This time around the Chiefs are much healthier than Baltimore. Mahomes has completed 70.5 percent of his throws in three games against the Ravens for an average of 378.6 yards while accounting for 10 TD's with only one interception. The Ravens are going to have to try to stop Mahomes while possibly missing their two top cornerbacks. Marcus Peters is out and Jimmy Smith is questionable with an ankle injury. I don't see the Ravens being able to slow down Kansas City while also being unable to keep up with Mahomes on the offensive end. The left side of Baltimore's offensive line is banged up, including star left tackle Ronnie Stanley, and the team is down to backup running backs with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards lost for the season.
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09-19-21 | Vikings +4.5 v. Cardinals | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 100 h 1 m | Show | |
The Cardinals were impressive in dismantling the Titans on the road this past Sunday. The Vikings,on the other hand, laid an egg losing in overtime to the Bengals. Yes, the Vikings have serious offensive line injuries and inexperienced cornerbacks. But they have a very defensive front seven that will be made even better if linebacker Anthony Barr is back this week. Mike Zimmer should have the Vikings in a very serious mood while the Cardinals return to the desert fat and happy. Kyler Murry is proving to be an elite talent. The Cardinals, though, are far from a complete team. They also are extremely vulnerable at the cornerback spots. Kirk Cousins has the skill position stars to take advantage with Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. The Cardinals deserve to be a home favorite. But no more than by a field goal.
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09-19-21 | Patriots -5.5 v. Jets | 25-6 | Win | 100 | 94 h 41 m | Show | |
Having watched both the Patriots and Jets it's clear New England is at least a touchdown better than the Jets - and that's being the road team. The Patriots dominated yardage and time of possession against the Dolphins. They should have won that game. The Patriots rate enormous edges in the trenches against the Jets. New York had trouble protecting Zach Wilson against the Panthers and that was when they had its best offensive lineman, left tackle Mekhi Becton. He suffered a knee injury against Carolina and is out. Bill Belichick is 23-11-1 ATS for 68 percent the past 36 times the Patriots have played following a loss. Belichick also is 9-1 the past 10 times he's faced a rookie QB. New England rookie QB Mac Jones is in a far better position to succeed than Wilson playing behind an excellent offensive line, with a much stronger defense and excellent, proven coaching. The Jets barely averaged 15 points a game last season. They couldn't even reach that number against Carolina. Wilson didn't have time to throw and no ground game to rely on.
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09-19-21 | Raiders v. Steelers -5.5 | Top | 26-17 | Loss | -107 | 93 h 15 m | Show |
All the preseason talk about the AFC North was about the Browns and Ravens. Lost in the glare of those teams is the Steelers, who happen to win 12 games last season and the AFC North. Pittsburgh led the NFL in sacks and had a top-three defense. There are new starters, but the Steelers' defense remains top-notch. Ben Roethlisberger is fresh right now. He has three strong wide receivers and a ground attack that now must be respected thanks to rookie running back Najee Harris. Las Vegas isn't in Pittsburgh's class. The Raiders also are in a horrible situational spot. They are coming off the biggest victory since they moved to Las Vegas two years ago with their Monday night home upset of the Ravens, which was the first game in Las Vegas where fans could attend. Now the Raiders have to travel cross-country on a short week. They also draw an early start time.
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09-19-21 | Saints v. Panthers +3.5 | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 93 h 13 m | Show | |
The Saints played a great game against the Packers last week. But the Saints are not the 11-win power of past seasons. They have a turnover-prone QB and below average receivers with their top two wideouts hurt. Their defensive line depth is gone and their secondary is extremely vulnerable especially cornerback Marshon Lattimore out. The Panthers are an ascending team in Matt Ruhle's second year. They have the weapons to exploit the Saints' secondary with Christian McCaffrey, Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore. Carolina also has a lot of young talented defensive players. Brian Burns is an emerging star pass rusher. The Saints suffered a number of injuries last week, including one to center Erik McCoy, who is one of the better centers in the league.
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09-18-21 | East Carolina v. Marshall -9.5 | 42-38 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 5 m | Show | |
A major takeaway from Marshall opening the season 2-0 is Marshall's first-year head coach Charles Huff will run up a score. He's done it twice already. The Thunder Herd poured it on against Navy, 49-7, and buried North Carolina Central, 44-10. Grant Wells has been one of the best quarterbacks in the country. The Thunder Herd should roll again here. They have the offense and catch East Carolina off an excruciating defeat. The Pirates nearly upset South Carolina, but lost, 20-17, on a last-second field goal. The Pirates haven't been relevant since 2014. They are 16-43 the past six plus seasons. I find Holton Ahlers to be one of the most overrated quarterbacks in college football. His numbers don't translate to his hype. |
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09-18-21 | Georgia Southern +24 v. Arkansas | 10-45 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 53 m | Show | |
Can you say sandwich? That's what Arkansas finds itself in this week. Fresh off a 40-21 upset of Texas, the Razorbacks became ranked for the first time since 2016. They have a much bigger game on deck against unbeaten Texas A&M. So the spot is right for Georgia Southern to hang inside of this large number. The Eagles run a triple-option attack. That means tons of running plays, which eats clock. Arkansas has yet to get its passing attack in gear. That means the Razorbacks also will be staying on the ground a lot, too. The Eagles didn't look good against Florida Atlantic. But the Eagles also didn't have their starting QB, Justin Tomlin. He's back for this game. Georgia Southern also could get running back JD King back from injury. Georgia Southern is better than how it played against Florida Atlantic. The Eagles defeated Louisiana Tech, 38-3, in the New Orleans Bowl last season. They have covered each of the last six times they've met a foe with a winning record.
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09-18-21 | Florida State +5 v. Wake Forest | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 34 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker is significantly downgrading Florida State after the 0-2 Seminoles lost to Notre Dame and Jacksonville State, an FCS program. OK, I get that. But Florida State lost each of those games on the final play and Jacksonville State isn't a bad team. The Seminoles may still have been down about their overtime loss to Notre Dame in their opener and were affected by that against Jacksonville State. Both of Florida State's losses came at home. So maybe it's best the Seminoles go on the road where their focus could be sharper especially in need of a victory. It's rare to see Wake Forest a favorite against Florida State. Nothing against Wake Forest, who are a solid team and well coached. But the Seminoles are the more athletic and talented team. I like both of Florida State's QB's, Jordan Travis and McKenzie Milton. The Demon Deacons' 2-0 record should be looked at skeptically since it came against Norfolk State and Old Dominion.
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09-18-21 | Purdue v. Notre Dame -7 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 41 h 33 m | Show |
Notre Dame has been life and death to nip Florida State in overtime and hold off upset-minded Toledo. That has caused the linesmaker to underrated Notre Dame. The Irish are still an elite team, two levels higher than Purdue especially when at home. Jack Coan has answered the big question at quarterback. He's completed nearly 70 percent of his throws for more than 600 yards with six TD passes. The Irish are much better at the other positions than they have shown so far. If the Irish are vulnerable it's in stopping the run. Purdue, though, is a passing team. The Boilermakers don't run the ball well. Purdue is stepping way up in class after getting to play hapless Connecticut last week. The Boilermakers buried the Huskies, 49-0.
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09-18-21 | Boston College v. Temple +15 | 28-3 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 58 m | Show | |
Temple can hang here given the season-ending wrist injury to Boston College QB Phil Jurkovec. Boston College beat UMass, 45-28, last week behind senior QB Dennis Grosel, who is a big step down from Jurkovec, a pro prospect. Temple is better than UMass and will be playing its home opener here. Boston College is 2-8 ATS following a victory. The Owls were hammered, 61-14, by improved Rutgers. But that score was misleading. Rutgers only outgained Tempe by 104 yards. Temple came back from that loss to down Akron, 45-24, as a 6 1/2-point road favorite.
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09-17-21 | Mercury -2.5 v. Storm | 85-94 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
The Mercury have been sizzling winning 10 of their last 11. The Storm, on the other hand, are just 4-6 following the Olympic break. Seattle has yet to regain its early season momentum. The Storm are not the same team that went 16-5 going into break. The Storm also are going to be without superstar Breanna Stewart, who has a foot injury. Minus Stewart, the Storm were hammered by the Sparks, 81-53, in their last game.
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09-17-21 | Toronto v. Saskatchewan -4 | 16-30 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
I'm expecting QB Cody Fajardo to play this week after he was injured last week. That's good enough to back Saskatchewan, which is 13-6-1 ATS the past 20 times it has been favored. The Roughriders have covered in six of their last eight meetings against Toronto. The Argonauts are 11-24-1 ATS in their last 36 road games. Fajardo is having a strong season throwing for 1,153 yards and rushing for nearly 200 more yards while accounting for six TD's. The Roughriders' young wide receivers have stepped up, too. Saskatchewan has forced 12 turnovers and leads the CFL in sacks with 16. Toronto lacks a balanced attack. I don't see the Argos being in the Roughriders' class especially on the road where they usually struggle.
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09-17-21 | Maryland v. Illinois +7 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 27 h 5 m | Show |
Sparked by QB Brandon Peters, Illinois defeated Nebraska, 30-22, back on Aug. 28. Peters, however, was injured in that game. He didn't play in the Illini's last two games, losses to UTSA and Virginia. Peters is back for this game. The Illini are being underrated here because of a bad 42-14 loss to Virginia. I believe Illinois is better and tougher under new coach Bret Bielema. The Illini will prove it here. I'm not a fan of Maryland coach Mike Locksley. I especially want to go against Maryland as a road favorite in this point spread range. The Terrapins have covered only 27 percent of their last 26 away contests. The Terrapins are 2-0, but their last game was against FCS foe Howard, a 62-0 win. So their statistics are skewed. This also is Maryland's first road game. |
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09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team -3.5 | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
The Giants have two major things against them besides traveling on a short week, which is already factored into the line. No. 1: A wretched offensive line that is taking on a very good Washington pass rush headed by emerging superstar Chase Young and underrated Montez Sweat. That offensive line - ignored during the offseason by Giants management - is down starting guard Shane Lemieux, too. Von Miller caused havoc in Week 1 during the Broncos', 27-13, road win against New York. That score is even more lopsided than the final score as Daniel Jones scored a meaningless TD on the final play. No. 2: Jones. He's the most turnover-prone QB in the league. He has either fumbled or thrown an interception 57 times in 27 career starts. Jones isn't helped by the play-calling of dull-witted Jason Garrett, perhaps the least creative offensive coordinator in the NFL. The perception, judging by the betting line of around a field goal, is that these teams are even given that Washington has home field, which generally is considered worth three points. I don't consider these teams to be even, however. Where are the Giants' edges? I can't find any. New York has a respectable defense. Washington has a top-five caliber defense. Washington QB Taylor Heinicke is less likely to turn the ball over compared to Jones in what should be a conservative game. Terry McLaurin is easily the best wide receiver and I would take Antonio Gibson above Saquon Barkley as the top running back on the field. Don't agree? Consider this then: Barkley averaged 1.8 yards last season before suffering his ACL tear. He averaged 2.6 yards against the Broncos in 10 carries. Barkley isn't likely ticketed for heavy duty here playing his second game in four days following his serious knee surgery. Gibson will be heavily featured. The Giants yielded nearly six yards per carry against Denver running backs Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams. I would give Washington the coaching checkmark, too, preferring the braintrust of Ron Rivera and offensive coordinator Scott Turner over Joe Judge and Garrett.
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09-15-21 | Liberty +13.5 v. Sun | 69-98 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Connecticut has the best record in the WNBA. The Sun are going to be top-seeded in the playoffs. So this game means very little to them. Not so with New York. The Liberty are battling for the final playoff spot with the Mystics and Sparks. So an all-out effort should be forthcoming from the LIberty. New York has talent with Betnijah Laney and Natasha Howard, who can keep the Sun from dominating inside. Sabrina Ionescu is overdue to step up, too, for the LIberty. The Sun, on the other hand, could be reducing the minutes of their starters as they prepare for the playoffs and much more important games.
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09-13-21 | Ravens -4 v. Raiders | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 148 h 38 m | Show |
Sure the Raiders will be up for this Monday game being their first home game in Las Vegas in front of fans. It won't matter. The Ravens totally outclass the Raiders. Baltimore is ready to go after still another unbeaten preseason. The Ravens have won and covered opening week each of the last five seasons with their average victory margin being by 30.2 points. The Raiders went 2-6 during their first year in Las Vegas last season. The Ravens have been a strong road team under John Harbaugh winning 13 of their past 16 away contests. They also have covered 83 percent of the time as road chalk during the last two seasons. The Ravens return nearly all of their starters from last year's 11-win team. Lamar Jackson should produce monster numbers against a Raiders defense that has ranked in the bottom-four each of the last four years. The Raiders' personnel moves continue to puzzle. They got rid of key members of their offensive line. So a strength now is a major question mark. The spotlight will be on the electrifying Jackson, but the Ravens also will control the trenches. The combination is enough to produce a win by double-digits.
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09-13-21 | Wings v. Aces -10.5 | 75-85 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
It's hard for me to trust Bill Laimbeer, but I'm going to do it here. The Aces are off a highly impressive victory against the Lynx and can come very close to clinching a double bye into the WNBA semifinals with a victory here. This is their last home game. They conclude their regular season with a pair of road contests. So there is a major emphasis for them to play well here. The Wings just nipped the Liberty by one point at home two days ago. This is a very quick turnaround game for them as this is a day game with an early West Coast start. Dallas has failed to cover in its last five games.
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09-12-21 | Broncos -2.5 v. Giants | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 122 h 12 m | Show | |
Teddy Bridgewater has won 65 percent of his NFL starts going 22-12. This has been accomplished because Bridgewater is mobile and a highly-accurate game manager-type who has had the good fortune to have played with strong defenses. That's the case again this season. Denver's defense should be one of the best in the NFL with the return of pass rusher Von Miller and the addition of rookie cornerback Patrick Surtain to go with star pass rusher Bradley Chubb and a very strong secondary. I don't see the Giants producing much against this caliber of defense. The Giants had the second-worst offense last season. They failed to address their offensive line shortcomings so I'm not expecting much, if any, improvement from turnover-prone QB Daniel Jones. Denver's defensive guru coach Vic Fangio is top-notch at mixing blitzing schemes and getting the best matchups. Bridgewater has multiple weapons at his disposal, including Jerry Jeudy, Cortland Sutton, Noah Fant and KJ Hamler. The Broncos are at least a level higher than the Giants.
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09-12-21 | Vikings -3 v. Bengals | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -120 | 120 h 51 m | Show |
Much is made of the Bengals' excellent wide receiving group. But what really needs to be said about the Bengals is their serious flaws on defense and in their offensive line. They could have the worst guards in the league. The Vikings were a top-four defensive unit for three straight years until last year when injuries and opt-outs caused a huge drop. The Vikings have revamped their defense to their previous standards. Underrated Danielle Hunter is back and he's going to wreak havoc on the Bengals' pitiful offensive line. It remains to be seen how much mobility Joe Burrow will have in his first game since tearing his ACL/MCL last season. Defenses averaged 3.2 sacks of Burrow before he went down. This could be Mike Zimmer's most-explosive Vikings team in his eight years at Minnesota. Dalvin Cook is the second-best all-purpose running back in the NFL and Justin Jefferson is a top-seven wide receiver. Kirk Cousins also has red zone master Adam Thielen to throw to.
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09-11-21 | NC State v. Mississippi State | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 13 m | Show |
The national media hasn't caught on yet, but the wise guys have. North Carolina State is extremely strong this season, probably the second-best team in the ACC. The Wolfpack have no glaring weaknesses. They have a strong, experienced offensive line. Excellent skill position talent and a shut-down caliber defense. Mississippi State isn't in that class. The Bulldogs are way too prone to turning the ball over and making mistakes. Yes they have an exciting attack. But they're going to turn the ball over and commit dumb, costly mistakes. It's a typical Mike Leach team. The Bulldogs had to outscore Louisiana Tech by 18 points in the fourth quarter to pull out a 35-34 opening week win as 20 1/2-point home favorites. That's what happens when you turn the ball over six times and commit 12 penalties as the Bulldogs did. That kind of sloppy performance certainly isn't going to cut it stepping way up in class against North Carolina State. It's telling that Mississippi State couldn't control the line of scrimmage against Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs don't have the defense to stop North Carolina State even if their offense cuts way back on the turnovers. |
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09-11-21 | UAB +24.5 v. Georgia | 7-56 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 18 m | Show | |
I regard UAB as the best team in Conference USA and one of the more unsung teams in the nation. The Blazers catch Georgia at a good time. The Bulldogs are in letdown and sandwich mode after a highly-satisfying, hard-fought, 10-3, win against Clemson last week. Georgia hosts South Carolina next week in its opening SEC matchup. The Bulldogs also are dealing with COVID-19 issues. This may or may not have a bearing on team depth, but it's certainly not a plus for Georgia. UAB took care of business in its opener shutting out Jacksonville State, 31-0. The Blazers defense showed why it is highly regarded holding Jacksonville State to 154 yards of total offense. Tyler Johnson gives UAB a reliable QB and he's playing behind a very good offensive line. So I don't see the Blazers getting totally outclassed here like the point spread suggests.
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09-10-21 | Angels +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 5-10 | Loss | -116 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
Shohei Ohtani leads the majors with 43 homers and topps the American League with a .608 slugging percentage. He's also not bad when it comes to pitching. Ohtani is 9-1 with a 2.97 ERA. He's won his last eight decisions posting a 3.09 ERA with 85 strikeouts in 75 2/3 innings during this span. The Angels are 10-3 in Ohtani's last 13 starts. So I feel very strong in backing Ohtani especially on the road taking 1 1/2 runs with an extra at bat being the visiting team. Ohtani faced the Astros once this year - giving up one run on four hits with one walk and 10 strikeouts in seven innings back on May 11. Houston starter Framber Valdez has been solid with a 9-5 record and 3.08 ERA. The Astros' bullpen, though, hasn't been looking good lately. Valdez also has a mediocre 4.27 ERA in nine career appearances versus the Angels, including five starts. The Angels were idle Thursday. They are 5-0 the past five times following a day off.
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09-09-21 | Sun v. Sparks +10 | 75-57 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
This is a flat spot for Connecticut. The Sun just rolled over Dallas two days ago on the road. Now they fly into LA before taking on the Mercury in Phoenix on Saturday in a much tougher game. The Sparks have the worst record in the Western Conference. They are dangerous as home 'dogs, though, covering 11 of the past 15 times in that capacity. LA also has had ample rest and game preparation having been idle for the last week. The Sparks have won their past three home games.
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09-09-21 | Cowboys v. Bucs -7.5 | Top | 29-31 | Loss | -105 | 100 h 47 m | Show |
I don't see the Cowboys being able to stay within double digits of the Buccaneers. Unlike last season, when it took them half the season for them to gel under new QB Tom Brady, the Buccaneers are fully in sync. The Super Bowl champs have all of their starters back and their deep set of receivers should carve up a Dallas defense that was historically bad last season. I don't expect the Cowboys to surrender 29.6 points a game and permit 34 TD passes like in 2020. But I certainly don't expect them to be one of the better defensive units either as they make the change to new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. This will be Dak Prescott's first game since suffering a horrific broken ankle last year. He'll be behind a thin offensive line minus several players due to injuries and COVID. The Buccaneers are top-notch against the run so I'm not expecting a big game either from Ezekiel Elliott. Super Bowl champions opening at home are a dominant 18-2 SU, 14-4-2 ATS. |
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09-08-21 | Lynx +4 v. Aces | 81-102 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
The Aces are a very good WNBA team. However, they don't match up well to Minnesota, which has won five in a row going 4-0-1 ATS. The Lynx like to pay a physical, half-court game. That's not Las Vegas' style. The Lynx are one of the few teams that can match the Aces inside with Sylvia Fowles. The Aces will be minus their All-Star center Liz Cambage. She's dealing with COVID-19 protocols. The Aces still could be without Dearica Hamby, who has missed the past two games with an ankle injury. The Lynx are well-coached, too. I'm not a fan of Aces coach Bill Laimbeer. The teams have met twice this season and the Lynx are 2-0.
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State +7.5 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 56 h 23 m | Show |
Florida State stands an excellent chance of getting its revenge for a 42-26 loss suffered on the road to Notre Dame last year. The Irish lost considerable talent. It's going to take them time to gel. I'm not a fan of their quarterback, Jack Coan, remembering how ineffective he was at Wisconsin before transferring to Notre Dame. I remain surprised that he's the Irish's starting QB. Notre Dame also is breaking in four new starting offensive linemen. Florida State has another talented, athletic and fast roster. The Seminoles should bounce back from last season's COVID-ravaged year. I like both of the Seminoles' QB's - Jordan Travis and McKenzie Milton - better than Coan. Milton was a superstar throwing for 8,683 yards and 72 TD's in three years at Central Florida before suffering a serious knee injury in 2018. He's now ready to resume his career. There's another situational edge to this matchup for Florida State. It's the Seminoles' first game since the passing of longtime and beloved coach Bobby Bowden. So the team should be sky high.
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09-05-21 | A's +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 0-8 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
Credit to Robbie Ray for a great season. But the A's are too good of a team to be this big of an underdog. I'm going to hedge, though, and lay a small price by taking Oakland on the run line at plus 1 1/2 runs. If given 1 1/2 runs, the A's would be 11-5 in their last 16 games. Toronto would be 3-10 in its last 13 games if minus 1 1/2 runs. I'm not fading the lefthanded Ray here, it's all about getting value with the A's. Oakland is 39-16 in its last 55 games versus a southpaw. The A's also rank in the top four in hits and homers when playing on the road. A's starter Cole Irvin is a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. |
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09-04-21 | Baylor -14 v. Texas State | Top | 29-20 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
Baylor is coming off a disastrous COVID-shortened 2-7 season, which ruined Dave Aranda's first season in Waco. I'm looking for the Bears to be much better this year. As bad as Baylor was last year the Bears still rate more than a two touchdown class difference against Texas State of the Sun Belt Conference. The Bobcats are 15-57 the last six years, including 2-10 last season under third-year coach Jake Spavital. Aranda had been one of the most highly-respected defensive coordinators in college football before coming to Baylor. His defense, which returns 10 starters, shouldn't have problems against a weak Texas State offense that has been unsettled at QB and devoid of playmakers. Texas State is bad on defense, too, giving up nearly 40 points a game last season and close to 500 yards. The Bears have covered 71 percent of their last 15 away contests. |
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09-03-21 | Michigan State +3.5 v. Northwestern | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 38 m | Show | |
You might think this game should be a mismatch. After all, Northwestern went 7-2 and won a bowl game last season while Michigan State struggled going 2-5 with two games cancelled during Mel Tucker's first season. You would think wrong, though. Northwestern lost much of its talent from last year, including QB Peyton Ramsey, star offensive lineman Rashawn Slater and its cornerback and receiving corps. Perhaps no major conference team lost as many players through graduation as Northwestern. Michigan State, on the other hand, should be much improved. The Spartans are far more stable in Tucker's second year. Michigan State returns twice as many starters as Northwestern and has the talent at wide receiver to take advantage of Northwestern's inexperienced secondary. Note, too, that one of Michigan State's victories last season was against Northwestern, 29-20. The Spartans also defeated the Wildcats, 31-10, at Northwestern in 2019. |
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09-02-21 | Boise State v. Central Florida -5.5 | Top | 31-36 | Loss | -107 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
Buckle your seat belt because this is going to be a fast ride with these two teams. Both have new head coaches. The belief here is that Central Florida has more reliable firepower than Boise State at this early stage. Making a long trip to play in the heat and humidity of Florida works against Boise State, too. Central Florida coach Gus Malzahn was let go at Auburn despite never finishing below .500 in eight seasons. Malzahn is an offensive whiz. UCF has averaged more than 40 points per game in each of the last four seasons. The Knights have one of the top QB's in the country, Dillon Gabriel. He threw for 3,570 yards with a 32-to-4 TD-to-interception ratio in 10 games last season. The Broncos have a new coach, Andy Avalos, and a new offensive coordinator, Tim Plough. Avalos is unproven. Malzahn isn't.
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09-01-21 | UAB v. Jacksonville State +16.5 | Top | 31-0 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
This actually should be a good game as these are two talented teams. UAB has the better defense and more depth, but Jacksonville State is a dangerous opponent having made the FCS playoffs six of the past seven years. The Gamecocks have the necessary run defense and offensive firepower to keep things close the entire game. Jacksonville State QB Zerrick Cooper is either first or second in school history in passing TD's, passing yards and total offensive yards. The Gamecocks have their entire offensive line intact and feature solid skill position talent around Cooper. UAB has a strong team, too. But the Blazers no longer have their all-time leading rusher, Spencer Brown, and they lost 50 percent of their receiving production from the past two seasons. I'm not anti-UAB here. I just think Jacksonville State is being underrated lacking the name recognition being an FCS school.
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08-31-21 | Liberty v. Lynx -9 | Top | 66-74 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
The Liberty is at low ebb with four straight losses and non-covers - all at home. Now New York takes to the road for the first time since Aug. 15. The Lynx defeated the Liberty, 88-78, at home when New York last was on the road, which was 16 days ago. I'm expecting another double-digit victory from the Lynx against the Liberty. Minnesota has covered its last four homes and is 5-1 ATS in its last six games against New York. The Liberty have lost seven of their past eight games and have been bad in this role going 9-20 ATS as a road 'dog.
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08-29-21 | Reds -1.5 v. Marlins | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
The Marlins are force-feeding high-end pitching prospect Jesus Luzardo. It hasn't been going well. Luzardo, acquired a month ago from the A's, has a 9.67 ERA in five starts with the Marlins. He is averaging nearly 20 baserunners per nine innings during those starts. Reds starter Tyler Mahle is having a breakthrough season at 27 thanks to an improved slider. He's been especially effective on the road with a 1.84 ERA. The Reds are 5-1 versus the Marlins this season going hard for a playoff berth.
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08-28-21 | Bears -3 v. Titans | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
The Titans are going to be sitting out their top starters. The Bears won't play Andy Dalton. So it comes down to a battle of reserve QB's and the Bears should hold a winning hand with exciting rookie Justin Fields and veteran Nick Foles against journeyman Matt Barkley and Logan Woodside. The Bears' offensive line is showing signs of jelling. It was a big question mark entering the season. Bears coach Matt Nagy is likely to play his starting offensive line for at least one half. The Titans' defensive line, thin to begin the season, already is dealing with numerous injuries. So I expect the Bears to control the line of scrimmage. The Titans are dealing with a COVID-19 outbreak that has affected nine players and several coaches, including head coach Mike Vrabel, who won't be at the game since he tested positive this past Sunday. Starting QB Ryan Tannehill also is dealing with COVID. Chicago should be the more motivated team having been embarrassed by the Bills, 41-15, last week. |
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08-27-21 | Eagles +4.5 v. Jets | 31-31 | Win | 100 | 52 h 48 m | Show | |
Reserves are going to play a lot in this final preseason tune up. So the Jets have no business laying this big of a price. These teams are familiar with each other since they've had joint practices. The Eagles have been superior inside the trenches. Zach Wilson looked good in leading the Jets past the Packers last week. But Green Bay held out all of its top defensive players, going with third and fourth-stringers. I prefer the Eagles' backup QB rotation of Joe Flacco and Nick Mullens versus the Jets' third-stringer James Morgan and fourth-stringer Josh Johnson as New York second-string QB Mike White suffered a rib injury against the Packers this past Saturday and is unlikely to play.
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08-27-21 | Hamilton v. Montreal +2.5 | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 33 m | Show | |
The attendance will be capped at 15,000. But Montreal will be playing its first home game in two years since there was no CFL last season. So the Alouettes certainly won't lack for motivation. Montreal QB Vernon Adams had a monster season in 2019 when he became a starter for the first time. Despite putting up decent numbers in a narrow loss at Calgary last week, Adams didn't have a good performance by his standards. He'll look to atone against the 0-2 Tiger-Cats. Adams didn't lose consecutive games during the entire 2019 season. Hamilton has managed just 14 points in its two games. Backup Dane Evans will be filling in for injured starting Hamilton QB Jeremiah Masoli. The Tiger-Cats have numerous injuries in their offensive and defensive lines, too. Montreal is the far healthier team.
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08-26-21 | Wings v. Mystics -3 | 82-77 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
Washington is showing signs of gelling with Elena Delle Donne back in the lineup going 2-0 ATS. It's not just Delle Donne's outstanding talent, but also the confidence level and intangibles she brings that makes the Mystics much better. |
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08-26-21 | Aces -12 v. Dream | 78-71 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
I see the Aces bouncing back after a bad loss to the Sun two days ago when they scored a season-low 62 points. The Aces have too much offense for the defensively-challenged Dream especially with Atlanta not nearly at full strength. |
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08-23-21 | Royals v. Astros -1.5 | 7-1 | Loss | -121 | 15 h 48 m | Show | |
The Astros are in a blowout spot and the motivation should be there after they lost three of four at Kansas City last week. Veteran Zack Greinke is just the pitcher to hold the Royals in check while the powerful Houston offense does its damage against Daniel Lynch. The rebuilding Royals actually enter this matchup having just swept the Cubs in Chicago. The Royals, though, are not a good road team and the Cubs hoisted the white flag at the trade deadline. The Cubs' lineup looks like a minor league roster now. Daniel Lynch gets another start in his audition with the Royals. He has a 5.12 ERA. The Astros just saw him six days ago. Lynch shut the Astros down holding them to one run in seven innings. I don't see that happening again. Houston leads the majors in batting average and is second in slugging percentage. Greinke is having another solid year going 11-3 with a 3.43 ERA. |
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08-23-21 | Jaguars v. Saints -4 | Top | 21-23 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
The Saints had a shot to end the Ravens' preseason win streak, which has reached an NFL record-tying 19 consecutive victories, but fell, 17-14, last week. The Sains turned the ball over six times yet still only lost by three points to Baltimore. Saints coach Sean Payton was not happy with the loss, nor his team's performance. The Saints are one of those few teams who still haven't decided on a starting QB. That means big minutes for Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill as they battle it out. They'll be operating against a weak Jacksonville defense that surrendered nearly 250 yards against the Browns backups during the first half last week. The Jaguars defense proved vulnerable to screen passes. The Saints are a strong screen pass team. Cleveland backups also handled Jacksonville's offensive line recording four sacks. The Jaguars gave up 44 sacks last season and will be without two and possibly three starting offensive linemen against the Saints. Center Brandon Linder and left guard Andrew Norwell are out and right guard A.J. Cann is questionable due to a positive COVID-19 test. The Saints can generate a strong pass rush playing on turf at home in an extremely loud indoor setting against a banged-up offensive line. So Urban Meyer would be wise to limit Trevor Lawrence's playing time.
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08-22-21 | Giants +5 v. Browns | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 31 m | Show |
The Browns don't care about this game. Cleveland coach Kevin Stefanski will be playing very few of his starters and the ones who get into the game will see little action. The Giants don't have that luxury. While Saquon Barkley and Kenney Golladay aren't going to play, Giants QB's will have a number of other weapons plus playing time from their starting offensive line. The Browns' best defensive backs are not healthy and won't be playing. The edge is going to be with the Giants as far as number of starters playing. That's a big edge especially when Stefanski's top priority isn't winning the game. The teams have conducted scrimmages and practices against each other the past four days. During this time, Giants wide receiver Sterling Shephard has been a star against Cleveland's decimated secondary. The person who could take this game the most personally is Giants safety Jabrill Peppers, who played for the Browns before coming to New York. He was extremely animated during the scrimmages. |
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08-20-21 | Mets v. Dodgers -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Walker Buehler is the best pitcher in the National League with Jacob deGrom out, if not all of baseball. Buehler is 12-2 with a 2.09 ERA. He is in tremendous form holding opponents to one run or fewer in his last five starts. This includes giving up one run to the Mets this past Saturday in New York. The Dodgers are making their move winning 11 of their last 12 games. The Mets are going the other way, losers of six of their past seven. LA had its way when it faced Carlos Carrasco five days ago getting to him for six runs in two innings. The Dodgers hit three homers off Carrasco during his brief performance. Carraso is struggling after missing the first three months of the season due to a torn hamstring. He's given up 10 runs during his past two starts spanning only three innings.
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08-16-21 | Mets v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 110 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
The Mets just got swept by the Dodgers at home and now they have to fly cross-country after having played in the ESPN Sunday night game. Major League Baseball certainly didn't do the Mets a favor here with this scheduling spot. It's the first time the Mets have been on the West Coast - a three hour time difference for them - since June 6. Throw in a late night/early morning long flight and I don't see how the Mets can be sharp going against a Giants team that is a dominant 40-18 at home. The Mets are 23-35 on the road. They are hurting in the middle infield with Javier Baez and Franscico Lindor both out. New York also is facing Kevin Gausman, who has been the Giants' best pitcher with an 11-5 record and 2.29 ERA. Gausman is back in strong form, too, allowing just two earned runs in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. The Mets average the second-fewest runs per game in the majors. Rich Hill is expected to get the start for the Mets, but New York is a fade no matter who starts. Hill has a 4.91 ERA in his last three starts. The Giants are positioned well for this game. They rested catcher Buster Posey Sunday while also limiting the playing time of Kris Bryant and Evan Longoria. This is a real kill spot for the Giants so I'm going to lay the 1 1/2 runs on the run line and turn a huge lay price into a plus price.
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08-14-21 | Hamilton v. Saskatchewan -2.5 | 8-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
The Roughriders have dominated Hamilton at home going 17-3-1 ATS during the past 21 meetings. They catch the Tiger-Cats playing their second consecutive road game. That's not a good way to open the season. Hamilton was not impressive opening week losing, 19-6, to Winnipeg looking horrible the last three quarters. Saskatchewan built a 32-9 halftime lead in its opener at home last week against BC and held on to win, 33-29. I don't see the Roughriders having any type of letdown after last week's scare. They are tough at Mosaic and also in a favorite's role going 11-5-1 ATS the past 16 times when laying points. The Tiger-Cats aren't expected to have injured running back Don Jackson.
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08-14-21 | Padres -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | 0-7 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
The Diamondbacks have won the first two games of this series. I don't see them winning a third straight, especially facing a hot Joe Musgrove. So does the oddsmaker at this huge lay price. I see this as a kill spot for San Diego so I'll greatly reduce the vigorish by laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line with the Padres. Musgrove is 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA during his last four starts. The righthander has a 2.97 lifetime ERA versus the Diamondbacks in six appearances, including five starts. The Diamondbacks have lost 42 of their last 55 games against a righty starter. Arizona has the worst record in the majors. Arizona is giving Tyler Gilbert a starting shot here. This will be his first career start for the Diamondbacks. He faces a top-10 offense. |
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08-14-21 | Texans v. Packers -3 | Top | 26-7 | Loss | -108 | 61 h 42 m | Show |
Much is being made of how untested Jordan Love is. But compared to Houston rookie QB Davis Mills, Love is Aaron Rodgers. Love and Mills figure to be the key storylines in the Texans-Packers Week 1 preseason game. Both figure to play a lot in this game. Aaron Rodgers isn't playing. Deshaun Watson may not even make the trip to Green Bay. He's certainly not playing. Watson has been nothing but a huge distraction during the Texans' training camp with trade rumors swirling around him and lawsuits from 22 women. Tyrod Taylor is Houston's starting QB. The Texans know what he can do. So does every other team in the NFL. They all know Taylor is a journeyman, who has gotten more conservative with each season. The Chargers are still counting their blessing for the inept team doctor who accidentally punctured Taylor's lung allowing Justin Herbert to become their starting quarterback last year. Taylor hasn't looked good during training camp. Mills has looked downright terrible. Mills has had trouble picking up the speed of the NFL game. He threw four interceptions during one red zone-focused practice last week. Not helping Mills is the Texans' lack of talent and overhauled roster with some 50 new players. Houston is breaking in four new starting offensive linemen. Green Bay's defense should be way ahead of Houston's offense. It remains to be seen if Love will be a playmaker, or a checkdown, game-manager type. But the Packers do have a deep set of receivers and the Texans have a weak defense especially in the secondary. Kurt Benkert is Green Bay's third-string QB and figures to see action, too. Benkert has three NFL seasons of experience. He's shown enough for the Packers to cut Blake Bortles, who would not have been a bad third-string quarterback. Even though this is a preseason game where randomness is increased, there's still no need to overthink this. The Packers are the deeper and superior team to the visiting Texans. I would take Love - sight unseen - against any of the Texans QB's except Watson. |
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08-13-21 | Blue Jays v. Mariners +1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
Seattle doesn't get much respect. That's obvious seeing this high of a road price on the Blue Jays. But the Marines are 35-24 at home this season. They rarely are out of games. If given plus 1 1/2 runs, Seattle would be 12-1 (92 percent) in its last 13 games. Seattle starter Chris Flexen is 6-4 at home with a 2.67 ERA compared to a 5.44 road ERA. He's been tough in Seattle all season. The Blue Jays aren't as fierce in pitcher's parks such as Seattle's T-Mobile Park. Toronto's offensive numbers are down across the board when comparing its home/road hitting statistics, including a drop of nearly 20 points in batting average. The Blue Jays have scored four runs or fewer in five of their past seven games. A major reason for Toronto being such a prohibitive favorite is starter Robbie Ray. He's 9-5 with a 2.90 ERA. Ray has always been a high strikeout pitcher, but he's proven much more consistent this season with his command and control. He does have a 3.91 lifetime ERA against the Mariners in four career starts. But this isn't a fade on Ray. It's a play on the feisty Mariners.
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08-13-21 | Toronto v. Winnipeg -6.5 | 7-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Winnipeg is 12-1 in its last 13 games at IG Field. The Blue Bombers also are 9-2 ATS the past 11 times as a home favorite after opening the season with a 19-6 home victory against Hamilton. Look for the defending champion Blue Bombers to continue their ATS home chalk dominance. Toronto stunned Calgary opening week in its, 23-20, road win six days ago. The Argonauts rallied after trailing by eight points in the final quarter. I don't see them pulling off a second straight road upset win, especially traveling on a short week. The last time Toronto opened 2-0 was 2015. The Blue Bombers have covered seven of the last eight in this series. Winnipeg has an inexperienced secondary, but its front seven can compensate as they should control the line of scrimmage. I'm not sold on Toronto QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson.
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08-12-21 | Steelers +1.5 v. Eagles | 24-16 | Win | 100 | 53 h 4 m | Show | |
Coaching history and backup quarterbacks are two keys in accessing preseason football. We know Mike Tomlin likes to win these exhibition games. The Steelers have won 63 percent of their preseason games under Tomlin, including defeating the Cowboys, 16-3, in the Hall of Fame Game last Thursday. Having already played a game is a plus, too, for the Steelers here. Pittsburgh won't be so vanilla with its offense as it was against the Cowboys. Offensive coordinator Matt Canada is featuring rookie running back Najee Harris, who looked good against Dallas, and more motion in Pittsburgh's attack. I highly doubt Ben Roethlisberger sees any action. I doubt, too, the Eagles will put Jalen Hurts on the field. The Steelers have three decent backup quarterbacks as far as preseason goes with Mason Rudolph, Dwayne Haskins and Joshua Dobbs. Pittsburgh's No. 2 job is open so there should be good competition between these three. The Eagles have a new head coach, Nick Sirianni, and a new coaching staff. Their backup QB's are veteran Joe Flacco and Nick Mullens. Flacco has no incentive. He's a veteran with a monster contract. Mullens is coming off a season-ending elbow injury he suffered last year with the 49ers. Mullens hasn't looked good in camp, by various reports. Philadelphia is inexperienced at wide receiver. The ones that are healthy haven't impressed. The Eagles got a bad break when first round pick DVonta Smith, the Heisman Trophy winner, suffered a knee injury. He may have to miss the entire preseason. Look for Flacco just to game manage things before turning it over to Mullens. So I give a strong check mark to the Steelers' defense. The Eagles also could find themselves constantly starting in poor field position if Pittsburgh rookie punter Pressley Harvin III performs as well as he did against the Cowboys. Harvin dropped one punt on the Dallas 1. Another punt went out of bounds at the Dallas 11 and another Harvin punt was fumbled by the Cowboys. These weren't fluke occurrences. I considered Harvin to be the best punter in the draft.
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08-08-21 | Rangers +1.5 v. A's | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
I understand the Rangers, losers of 13 straight road games, are tough to back. But there's value to them here being on the road with the extra at bat getting 1 1/2 runs against Oakland, which is just 6-6 in its last 12 games. I'm not a fan of Rangers starter Jordan Lyles, but he does eat up innings. He's reached at least the sixth inning in six of his last eight starts. He's surrendered two or fewer runs during five of those past eight starts. So he's not a bottom tier pitcher. Oakland ranks 24th in batting at .234 and that includes the A's 16-hit outburst against Texas on Saturday. The A's are minus suspended outfielder Ramon Laureano. Teams often rest some starters on Sunday so Lyles may have a few rest stops in Oakland's batting order. Oakland starter James Kaprielian had been pitching well until his last start. That came on July 27 at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Kaprielian gave up six earned runs to the Padres in just 4 1/3 innings. He went on the injured list the next day with a shoulder injury. This is his first start since then. |
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08-07-21 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -1.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 11 m | Show | |
This is one of those rare and near-impossible instances of the Diamondbacks actually being fat and happy. Arizona still is gloating about coming from five runs down to defeat the Padres, 8-5, on the road Friday night. That victory, though, was against rookie Ryan Weathers. Now the Diamondbacks face ace Yu Darvish and an angry Padres bunch. Darvish has a 3.16 ERA at Petco Park this season. I expect Darvish to pitch much better than Weathers did and for San Diego to destroy Diamondbacks starter Taylor Widener, who in his last three starts spanning 12 2/3 innings has given up a staggering 15 earned runs on 18 hits, nine walks and four homers. Each of the Padres' last five victories have been by 3 runs or more.
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08-05-21 | Royals v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
The White Sox should be steaming mad having been embarrassed, 9-1, at home by the Royals Wednesday. Dallas Keuchel shouldn't lack motivation either as he takes the mound for Chicago after failing to hold a 6-1 lead against the Indians in his last start this past Saturday. Keuchel, a two-time All-Star, is past his prime at 33. But he's not over-the-hill. He's backed by an improved bullpen that recently added Craig Kimbrel. I expect a kill spot here for the White Sox facing lefty Daniel Lynch. The White Sox are 38-19 at home. They are 20-10 versus southpaw starters. The Royals are 18-35 on the road.
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08-04-21 | Twins v. Reds -1.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
The Twins are a step above the Diamondbacks, Rangers, Pirates, Rangers and Orioles. But only a slight step. Minnesota is especially bad on the road, losers of 12 of its past 17 away contests. The Twins, however, managed to pull off a ninth-inning rally to beat the Reds, 7-5, on Tuesday. I don't see a repeat of that happening with a pitching matchup of lefty Charlie Barnes versus Luis Castillo. Barnes has pitched less than five innings in the big leagues. He's certainly not experienced throwing at Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park, one of the top hitter's stadiums in the majors. The Reds are 12-8 versus lefties this season. Castillo has turned his season completely around. He was terrible at the start of the season. But since late May, he hasn't given up more than 3 earned runs in any game. He's held opponents to two or fewer runs in nine of his last 12 starts. Castillo has struck out 31 in his last four starts spanning 24 1/3 innings. |
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08-03-21 | Royals v. White Sox -1.5 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show | |
The White Sox are one of the top teams thanks to a 37-18 home record. The Royals are out of contention because of a 17-34 road mark. The White Sox also are a dominating 19-10 against lefty starters. So I have no qualms laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line in a pitching matchup of southpaw Kris Bubic versus Dylan Cease. Bubic, like his teammates, has performed much better at home. He's 1-4 on the road with a 7.16 away ERA. The White Sox won't lack motivation against Bubic. They just faced him five days ago in Kansas City and the Royals won, 3-2. Bubic held the White Sox to two runs in six innings. I don't see him pitching that well again against Chicago in this quick turnaround spot and being on the road this time. Only five teams in the majors have a higher on-base percentage against lefties than the White Sox. Cease is sixth in the American League in strikeouts. He has a 1.65 ERA with 15 strikeouts in 16 1/3 innings against Kansas City this year. He has a lifetime 3.11 ERA against the Royals in seven career starts.
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07-29-21 | Brewers -1.5 v. Pirates | 12-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
I have little doubt the Brewers are going to beat the Pirates like they have in 28 of the previous 39 meetings. The key question is can Milwaukee win by more than one run? I certainly believe so in a pitching matchup of Freddy Peralta versus Chad Kuhl. The Brewers have outscored the Pirates by 13 runs in winning the first two games of this series. Pittsburgh has lost by more than one run during 16 of its last 17 losses. Milwaukee has gotten stronger acquiring Eduardo Escobar, while the Pirates got weaker, trading All-Star Adam Frazier to the Padres. Peralta is one of the most effective pitchers in the National League with a 2.29 ERA and 140 strikeouts in just 102 innings. He's backed by a healthy and upper tier bullpen. Kuhl is a bottom-of-the-rotation starter with a 4.38 ERA. He has a 8.64 ERA in two starts against the Brewers this season.
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07-24-21 | Pirates v. Giants -1.5 | 10-2 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 26 m | Show | |
The Giants were flat on Friday and they paid the price losing, 6-4, to the Pirates at home. I want the Giants going for me today in bounce back mode especially with a pitching matchup of Wil Crowe versus Kevin Gausman. This is a kill spot for San Francisco so I'll lay the 1 1/2 runs on the run line. Gausman has been tremendous this season with a 9-3 record and 1.84 ERA. However, he's off his worst performance of the season this past Monday against the Dodgers. It was just the second time this year Gausman allowed more than two runs in a game. The weak-hitting Pirates are not the Dodgers. The Giants should tee off on Crowe, who is 1-5 with a 6.12 ERA. I put Crowe in the lowest tier of starters. Despite their upset win on Friday, the Pirates still have won just 26 percent of their last 85 away games. |
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07-24-21 | Nationals -1.5 v. Orioles | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -125 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
Max Scherzer versus Matt Harvey is a mismatch of epic proportions. If it were a heavyweight fight it never would get sanctioned. I'll get involved laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line with the Nationals, who will be getting their full number of at bats being the road team. The Orioles are as bad as ever with the worst home mark in the majors at 14-30, which includes a 2-9 record in their last 11 games at Camden Yards. Baltimore has lost 48 of its last 64 overall games. Scherzer has a 2.83 ERA with a 142-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio this season despite enduring some rough outings in his last three starts. Those starts, however, came against the Padres twice and Dodgers. Now he's stepping way, way down in class. Harvey is 4-10 with a 7.13 ERA, which rises to 7.90 at home. The Nationals got a look at Harvey on May 23. They liked what they saw getting to him for six runs and nine hits in 4 2/3 innings. |
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07-20-21 | Suns v. Bucks -5 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 40 h 47 m | Show |
Losing the first two games of this championship series, the Bucks have rallied to win three in a row. The Bucks beat the Suns by 20 points at home in Game 3. They defeated the Suns by six points at home in Game 4 despite being outshot 51 percent to 40 percent from the floor and they knocked off the Suns in Game 5 on the road by four points despite trailing by 16 points going into the second quarter. Clearly, the Bucks have all the momentum. But it's not just momentum. Giannis Antetokounmpo is proving he's the finest all-around player in the NBA. The Bucks are exploiting their height advantage and depth. And now the Bucks play at Fiserv Forum in what is arguably their biggest home game in franchise history. The Suns had their chance to go up 3-2 in the series leading 32-16 at home at the end of the first quarter in Game 5. The Bucks took the punch and came back to win. Milwaukee is making the clutch plays not Phoenix. Lack of big-game playoff experience may have hurt the Suns. Devin Booker is playing great again, though. Chris Paul played much better in Game 5. But it didn't matter. The Suns can't match the Bucks' size, bench strength and Antetokounmpo's all-world performances. Getting this deep into the series isn't a plus either for Phoenix. This is the longest the Suns have ever lasted. They have never faced elimination before. So there is a mental question. There also is a physical concern - fatigue. Deandre Ayton went a career-high 45 minutes in Game 5. The Suns take a massive hit when Ayton, their lone effective big man, isn't on the court. Booker logged close to 42 minutes. Jae Crowder played 40 minutes. Paul is 36 years old. The Bucks are the fresher team because of their deeper bench. Perhaps the Suns can hang in on sheer willpower for a while, but their gas tank is near empty. This is the Bucks' chance. I don't see them blowing it. Antetokounmpo won't let that happen. |
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07-17-21 | Bucks +4 v. Suns | Top | 123-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
Sure, home-court is huge for the Suns. The Zig-Zag is on their side, too. It's their turn to win. However, the Suns face numerous issues that put me on the underdog Bucks for this Game 5. I've summarized them into five points: 1. Giannis Antetokounmpo is showing no ill effects from his injury. He's actually playing the best basketball of his career, which is saying a lot since he's the two-time league MVP. Antetokounmpo gives the Bucks the best player on the court. Superstars win NBA championships. 2. The Bucks are bigger and more athletic. Milwaukee has exploited that to shoot 31 more field goals and 19 more free throws than the Suns during the first four games. The Bucks are dominating the offensive glass while averaging nearly eight more shots per game than Phoenix. The Suns took a major hit when backup big man Dario Saric suffered a torn ACL and was lost for the series. The Suns are at a severe disadvantage when Deandre Ayton isn't on the court - and he can't play every minute. 3. Turnovers. The Bucks are winning the possession battle by forcing more turnovers. Chris Paul, bothered by the great defense of Jrue Holiday and perhaps still hindered by a left wrist injury, has committed 15 turnovers during the last three games. Paul hasn't had a three-game turnover stretch that bad in seven years. 4. Momentum. The Bucks have it. Their confidence is way up. 5. Shooting percentage. The Bucks shot 40 percent from the field in Game 4. The Suns made 51 percent of their field goals. Yet the Bucks still won by six points. The shots are there for the Bucks. Holiday is a much better scorer than he's shown in this series. So is Kris Middleton. I expect Milwaukee's accuracy to go up. |
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07-14-21 | Suns +4.5 v. Bucks | Top | 103-109 | Loss | -108 | 38 h 2 m | Show |
The first three games of this NBA championship series have all been decided by double-digits. We're overdue for a close game. That should come here as each team now has a full feel of their opponent. This is a very even series now that Giannis Antetokounmpo has shown he's back at his elite level. Milwaukee punched back after falling behind 2-0 in the series with a resounding, 120-100, Game 3 home win on Sunday. Now it's the Suns' turn to respond, which I believe they will. The last time the Suns lost two in a row was three series ago when they dropped Games 2 and 3 against the Lakers. Since then the Suns have gone 10-3 versus the Nuggets, Clippers and Bucks. That's remarkable resiliency to go with three stars on the court, Chris Paul, Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton. That's two more stars than the Bucks have. Milwaukee's strength in this series is its size and depth. The Suns are short-handed behind Ayton with backup Dario Saric out for the season after tearing his ACL in Game 1. Ayton must play major minutes. He didn't during Game 3 because of foul trouble. He should be fresh with three days in between Game 3 and Game 4 instead of the normal two days. Saddled with five fouls in a game for the first time in the postseason, Ayton only played 24 minutes on Sunday. The Bucks, especially Antetokounmpo, took full advantage dominating the paint and attacking the rim at will. Antetokounmpo alone shot 17 free throws in Game 3, which was more than the entire Suns team got to shoot from the foul line. Not helping matters for Phoenix was Booker had his worst game of the series going just 3-for-14 from the floor. He hadn't had that low of a scoring game during the entire calendar year of 2021. The Suns, who had the second-highest shooting percentage during the regular season, missed 22 of 31 shots from 3-point range. The Bucks' three best players - Antetokounmpo, Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday - were a combined 28-of-51 from the field and made 16 of 20 free throws in Sunday's victory. Middleon and Holiday aren't likely to play as poorly as they did during the first two games of the series. However, they aren't likely to produce ''A'' level games either against the Suns' tough defense. The Suns scored 118 points in each of the first two games of this series when they were home. Maybe they don't reach that number again being on the road. But they sure should score more than 100 points. I doubt Booker is out of rhythm a second straight game and I doubt Ayton encounters foul trouble a second consecutive time having avoided it throughout the playoffs while dominating the Clippers and playing Denver superstar Nikola Jokic to a standstill. Holiday is a solid two-way player. Perhaps even underrated. But he's not vintage Chris Paul, which is what Paul has been during the postseason. I see solid value on the Suns in this price range. |
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07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4 | Top | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show |
This is the Bucks' season and I believe Milwaukee will respond well to the challenge being back at Fiserv Forum. The Bucks came back against the Nets and Hawks in their previous series. The Suns are better than those teams. Things are going well for the Suns, but they are not a super dominant power. During two of their series, they lost Game 3 at the Lakers and lost Game 3 at the Clippers. The best news for the Bucks is the return to health of Giannis Antetokounmpo. Milwaukee has outscored Phoenix by four points during the time he's been on the court. The Bucks' problems are their other players stepping up. Jrue Holiday and Kris Middleton are proven, solid players. They are overdue for much better performances. I don't expect the Suns to sink 50 percent of their 40 3-point shots like they did in Game 2 and I do expect the Bucks to shoot much better from 3-point range than the 9-for-31 performance of Game 2.
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07-10-21 | Mystics v. Sky -8.5 | 89-85 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
The Sky is the far healthier team and has been playing well. The Mystics aren't ready to make a move yet until the season resumes following a month-long Olympic break when they can regroup and get their starts back. Chicago is 8-2 in its last 10 games. The Sky rank second in scoring during this span averaging 87.5 points. They are better than their overall record because of a slow start and not having Candace Parker earlier in the season due to injury. |
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07-09-21 | Storm -6.5 v. Mercury | 77-85 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Seattle has won eight of its nine road games. I trust the Storm to cover this road number. Going back the past several seasons, the Storm have covered 25 of the last 35 times they've been road chalk. The Storm draw the Mercury after they just upset the Aces on the road two days ago in overtime. I don't think the Mercury has the maturity to avoid a letdown and the Storm are just the team to take advantage. Phoenix is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. The Storm have covered in five of their last six visits to Phoenix. |
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07-08-21 | Bucks +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -104 | 19 h 55 m | Show |
The Suns did what they did during their three previous playoff series, they came out fired up and executed well in winning and covering the spread in Tuesday's Game 1. Phoenix, though, failed to cover the number in Game 2 during their series against the Lakers and Clippers. The Suns' playoff and big-game inexperience showed in those non-covers. Giannis Antetokounmpo looked fine on Tuesday. The Bucks are right there with the Suns with a healthy Antetokounmpo. There are a number of signs pointing to the Bucks not only covering this Game 2, but perhaps coming away with the straight-up victory. Antetokounmpo scored 20 points, pulled down 17 rebounds and defended the rim. He was somewhat rusty, though. He needs his rhythm and he'll find it here. He's capable of playing even better. Free throws. What the hell? The Suns shot 26 free throws in Game 1. Their only miss came with 24 seconds left. They were 25-of-26. Milwaukee only got to shoot 16 free throws. Kris Middleton fired 26 shots - and didn't draw one foul. Strange. The Bucks are well-coached defensively. It's extremely rare for an opponent to get that many free throws against Milwaukee. The Bucks will be more aggressive. The lopsided foul situation should be rectified. It was an outlier. The Bucks had to play on much shorter rest than Phoenix in Game 1. The Bucks also got caught off-guard defending the Suns' pick-and-roll. Adjustments will be made. ''That will be a big part of looking between Game 1 and Game 2,'' Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer was quoted as saying. Milwaukee has covered the past four times following a non-cover. I expect Jrue Holiday to play better, too. He didn't shoot well in Game 1 and may have been too passive with Antetokounmpo back in the lineup after playing great in the last two games without him. Holiday isn't Chris Paul, but he's a solid two-way player. |
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07-07-21 | Mercury v. Aces -8.5 | 99-90 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
I have to roll with the Aces, who are 9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games. The Mercury has some chemistry issues and can't keep up on the boards against the Aces. Phoenix was outrebounded by 15 boards in a 31-point blowout home loss to the Lynx in its last game four days ago. Las Vegas leads the WNBA in rebounds per game at 38.3. Liz Cambage and A'Ja Wilson are combining to average nearly 18 rebounds per game for Las Vegas. |
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07-07-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning -1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 58 m | Show |
The plucky Canadiens got their win, nipping the Lightning, 3-2, in overtime two days ago. Montreal regained its self-respect by not getting swept by Tampa Bay. But now the inevitable has arrived for the Canadiens - Game 5 in Tampa Bay. The defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning are healthy and at the highest tier. Montreal is nowhere near that status. At best the Canadiens are at least one level, if not two levels, behind the Lightning. The situation is ripe for the Lightning to finish off this series. I'm going to turn a huge lay price into a plus price by laying 1 1/2 goals on the puck line in the belief this is not going to be a close game. Even if it is, the empty net factor looms large with Montreal on the brink of elimination and having nothing to lose. Tampa Bay hasn't lost two playoff games in a row since the opening round of 2019. The Lightning have won 72 percent of their last 69 home games. They also are 8-0 the past eight times hosting Montreal.
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07-06-21 | Bucks v. Suns -6 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
This series has a Chris Paul crowning feel to it. The Bucks produced back-to-back great efforts without Giannis Antetokounmpo to eliminate the Hawks with that series finale occurring this past Saturday night in Atlanta. The Suns have had six days to rest and prepare. They are healthy, unlike the Bucks who probably are not going to have Antetokounmpo. Suns coach Monty Williams said his team has practiced well during the wait. Phoenix is 3-0 ATS during the first game of its playoff series. The Bucks are 0-3 ATS in the opening game of each of their playoff series. Milwaukee is 3-9 ATS the past 12 times it has been a 'dog. The Bucks have failed to cover in six of their last seven games against Phoenix. I trust the Suns at home to produce the better Game 1 result, enough so to cover this spread. Minus Antetokonumpo, the Suns have the three best players in Paul, Devin Booker and emerging star Deandre Ayton. The Bucks received huge performances from Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez during its last two games against the Hawks. They all stepped up big-time in the absence of Antetokounmpo. The Suns, however, are a much different opponent than the Hawks, who had to make do with a hobbled Trae Young. The Hawks lacked a defensive stopper to deal with Middleton. The Suns have one in veteran Jae Crowder. Paul and his excellent backup point guard, Cameron Payne, rate an edge on Holiday. Keep in mind, Antetokounmpo isn't the only key Buck out with an injury. Milwaukee has been without underrated guard Donte DiVincenzo. He's out for the season with a foot injury and his defense is missed. Ayton rates a huge edge on Lopez, an inconsistent journeyman who can't be trusted to play as well as he has. I can't see the Bucks coming up with a third straight ''A'' game especially given the short turnaround. |
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07-05-21 | Braves -1.5 v. Pirates | 1-11 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
The last time Max Fried took the mound the Braves won, 20-2, against the Mets five days ago. I doubt the Braves win by 18 runs again - although they are playing the Pirates so it's possible - but I do expect them to win by more than a run. Each of the Pirates' last six losses have been by multiple runs. Pittsburgh has scored the grand total of 10 runs in its last seven games! It's no wonder the Pirates rank last in the majors in runs and homers. Fried started slow, but he's a quality starter and is rounding into shape. He has a 3.00 ERA in his last three starts. The same can't be said for Pittsburgh starter Chase DeJong, who is 0-3 with a 5.65 ERA. That ERA swells to 6.59 if you take DeJong's last three starts. Atlanta has taken seven of the last eight games from Pittsburgh. |
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07-05-21 | Wings -3.5 v. Liberty | 96-99 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
New York defeated Dallas earlier this season, 88-81. There's one huge difference now in the rematch: The Liberty is minus Natasha Howard, who is injured. She's the Liberty's leading rebounder and second-leading scorer. The Liberty is 4-8 ATS without her. I consider the Wings to be the better team even though the team's are each 9-9. Dallas has covered six of the last eight in this series and is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road contests. |
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07-04-21 | Dream v. Aces -15.5 | 95-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Atlanta has the second-worst defense in the WNBA. The Dream also is missing star player Tiffany Hayes. The timing isn't good either for the Dream. Las Vegas is coming off a poor performance in a 66-58 win this past Friday on the road against the Sparks. Las Vegas failed to cover a 15-point spread. Only once this season have the Aces failed to cover two straight games. A'Ja Wilson and Liz Cambage should dominate inside for the Aces. The Aces also have the perimeter shooting to take advantage of the Dream's WNBA-worst defensive field percentage defense. |
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07-04-21 | Brewers -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
Here's my coat and hat. I've arrived at the go-against the Pirates party. Milwaukee has won 11 in a row, including outscoring the Pirates by 19 runs during the first three games of this series. Pittsburgh has lost six in a row, with all of the defeats being by more than one run. It's easy to envision another lopsided Brewers win here in a pitching matchup of Freddy Peralta versus Tyler Anderson. The Brewers are 11-4 in Peralta's 15 starts. Here's why. Peralta has a 2.17 ERA, which shrinks to 1.47 during his last nine starts. He's one of the top strikeout pitchers in baseball with 122 k's in 87 innings. Anderson, a lefty, is 3-8 with a 4.75 ERA. He's lost six of his past seven starts. Milwaukee is 8-1 the past nine times going against a southpaw starter. |
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07-02-21 | Aces -14 v. Sparks | 66-58 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
LA just hosted Las Vegas two days ago and it was no contest. The Aces buried the Sparks, 99-75. LA was minus three of its top six players, including its best player, Nneka Ogwumike. She's out for this game, too, along with her sister, Chiney. Kristi Toliver, who's second in assists for LA, may not play again either. The Sparks are not well-coached and lack the firepower to hang with the Aces, the top-scoring team in the WNBA. The Aces like to put on a show when playing in LA. There were a number of NBA stars at Wednesday's game, including LeBron James and Damian Lillard. The Aces have the motivation and overwhelming talent edge to produce another blowout. |
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06-30-21 | Aces v. Sparks +12.5 | 99-75 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
This is too many points for Las Vegas to be giving up on the road and in a letdown spot. The Aces are coming off a highly-satisfying 95-92 overtime win at home against the Storm. Las Vegas is 2-4-1 ATS on the road this season. The last time the Aces played on the road they were upset by the Lynx last Friday. This also is the most points the Aces have laid on the road all season. |
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06-27-21 | Storm v. Aces -2 | 92-95 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
These are the two best teams in the WNBA and I like the home spot for the Aces and how they buried the Storm during their last meeting, 96-80, on the road. Las Vegas may have got caught looking ahead to this matchup as its five-game win streak was snapped, 90-89, in overtime at Minnesota this past Friday. The Aces are 15-5-1 ATS following an ATS loss. Seattle hasn't played in five days. So the Storm could be rusty. |
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06-26-21 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -1.5 | 10-1 | Loss | -124 | 16 h 29 m | Show | |
This is one of the biggest mismatches of the season. It's such a mismatch I feel very confident laying 1 1/2 runs with the Padres at home. San Diego is that good with eight straight victories and arguably the best and most exciting player in the game, Fernando Tatis. Arizona is that bad with 24 straight road losses and 1-20 record during its past 21 overall games. The Diamondbacks are 3-34 in their last 37 games. The pitching matchup and bullpen greatly favor the Padres, too. Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly has a 5.06 ERA. Padres starter Dinelson Lamet has a 2.81 ERA and is rounding into shape pitching deeper into games. He has electrifying stuff.
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06-26-21 | Suns v. Clippers +1 | Top | 84-80 | Loss | -101 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
Yes, Kawhi Leonard remains out. But given the Suns' fragile physical situation, it's surprising to find the Clippers again opening as a home underdog to the Suns. The Clippers have covered 10 of the last 11 times hosting the Suns, including beating them, 106-92, two days ago. If it weren't for Deandre Ayton scoring a basket in the final second of Game 2, the Clippers would be leading the series, 2-1, and LA likely would be favored by several points. The Clippers have much better depth than the Suns. They have the big men and wing players to bother a weakened Chris Paul and sharpshooter Devin Booker, who suffered a broken nose in Game 2 and has been hindered playing with a plastic faceguard. He's made just 27 percent of his field goals during the last two games. Paul had a terrible Game 3 after being in home isolation for eight days due to COVID-19 protocols. Paul is 36 and logged 39 minutes this past Tuesday. The best defense against Paul, who had been magnificent in the playoffs prior to going into isolation, is to throw athletic, wing men at him. The Clippers accomplished that with Paul George, Terance Mann and Nicolas Batum. Paul never could find his shooting range and his passing lanes were disrupted. Cameron Payne, Paul's effective point guard backup, couldn't help because of an ankle injury. He could go only four minuts. This puts the Suns in a real bind especially given Booker's shooting woes. Unsung players are needed to step up in the playoffs to help their superstars. The Clippers are getting that from Reggie Jackson, who is averaging 23 points in the five games Leonard has missed in the postseason. The Clippers have shown their mental toughness. They've fallen behind 0-2 in their series against the Mavericks and Jazz. LA won Game 3 and Game 4 in each of those series. Look for that pattern to continue here. |
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06-25-21 | Hawks +8 v. Bucks | Top | 91-125 | Loss | -104 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
Bookmakers who have futures jeopardy on the Hawks - and there are their share of them - need to be concerned. Atlanta isn't following the standard protocol of paying playoff dues before establishing itself as a title contender. The Hawks are talented enough, have the right coach in Nate McMillan and a hot Trae Young, who is using this postseason to launch himself into superstardom, to jump the gun. The Hawks have enough to beat a vulnerable Bucks team that is getting way too much respect. I thought taking eight points with the Hawks in Game 1 was overly generous. I gladly accepted that and I'll gladly accept 7 1/2 points because this is an even series. So what if the Bucks are home? Atlanta is 6-2 in road playoff games. The Hawks have covered in 13 of their last 16 visits to Milwaukee. Being at home just means more pressure on the Bucks, who have yet to prove anything during the playoffs under Mike Budenholzer. So what if the Bucks have Giannis Antetokounmpo when the Hawks have their own superstar in Young. I actually believe the Hawks are the more talented team given their big men of John Collins and Clint Capela. The Hawks upset the Bucks, 116-113, in Game 1 in part because they grabbed four offensive rebounds during the final two minutes. Collins and Capela combined to have a plus 20 ratio when they were on the floor. The Bucks had a negative 14 ratio when their big man, Brook Lopez, was on the court. The Bucks have a number of defensive stoppers such as Jrue Holiday and P.J. Tucker. Yet Budenholzer chose to put washed-up veteran Jeff Teague on Young during the second quarter. Teague only played around six minutes, but Young went crazy during this span just when it looked like the Bucks might have established early momentum. I don't point this out to nitpick Budenholzer, but to illustrate that his poor playoff history does not warrant any form of trust. Milwaukee blew a seven-point lead with a little more than four minutes left in the fourth quarter. The Bucks have no business being favored this high again in the series. But I'm not here to argue. I'm just thankful to receive another gift. |
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06-25-21 | Mariners v. White Sox -1.5 | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Seattle southpaw Yusei Kikuchi is pitching better than he ever has in the majors with a 4-3 record and 3.46 ERA. However, he can't compare to White Sox lefty Carlos Rodon, who is 6-2 with a 1.83 ERA. Rodon has a 1.42 ERA in three starts this month and has a 1.50 ERA in four career starts versus Seattle. Kikuchi also has to face a team that mashes lefties. The White Sox rank either second or third against lefties in batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage and OPS. The White Sox are a mind-boggling 30-6 versus southpaw since the start of last season. Kikuchi has a lifetime 11.05 ERA against the White Sox in two starts. Seattle is 15-21 on the road. They rank second-to-last in batting average and also second-to-last in hitting when going against lefties. The White Sox have been an elite home team going 27-12, including 7-3 this month at Guaranteed Rate Field. |
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06-25-21 | Aces v. Lynx +7 | 89-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
I'm expecting the Aces to be rusty having not played for eight days. They are 2-5 ATS the past seven times when playing on three or more day's rest. Las Vega also could be mentally flat following the news that several of its player were selected to play in the Olympics. So the Aces could have trouble focusing while also dealing with overconfidence. |
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06-24-21 | Mystics v. Sparks +4 | 82-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
The Sparks have been up and down this season. But they are in a good spot here catching the Mystics off a stunning road victory against the Storm two days ago. Washing was 13 1/2-point 'dogs in that game while missing a number of players, including superstar Elena Delle Donne. The Mystics are in a letdown spot here and still could be missing Delle Donne along with four other contributors. This is an important game fo the Sparks. Their next game is at Phoenix followed by four games versus the Aces and Storm. So LA can't afford to take a home loss here. LA has been strong in this role covering eight of the last 10 times as a home 'dog.
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06-24-21 | Suns v. Clippers +1.5 | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show | |
If not for a last-second dunk by Deandre Ayton in Game 2 and the Suns shooting 55 percent from the floor in Game 1, the Clippers could be heading home up 2-0 in this Western Conference Finals instead of down 0-2. If that were the case, this line would be much different. The landscape is going to change in this Game 3 and it's not just because the scene shifts to LA. The Suns are expected to get back Chris Paul while Kawhi Leonard remains out for LA. It doesn't matter. I still see the Clippers winning this Game 3. I like the Clippers' bench better. Ty Lue has convinced me he knows how to make proper adjustments. Home-court can't be diminished. The Suns are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games against the Clippers. But I also like that the Clippers came back from 0-2 in each of their previous series to take out the Mavericks and Jazz. That's huge psychologically. This is a veteran team that won't panic. Lue is a coaching upgrade on Doc Rivers. Paul has had an MVP-caliber season. He can't play much better, though, than how his replacement, Cameron Payne, played this past Tuesday scoring 29 points and dishing off nine assists. Paul's return is factored into the line. So I'm fine with that. Devin Booker scored 40 points in Game 1 making 15 of 29 shots from the floor. However, the Clippers clamped down on Booker in Game 2 holding him to 5-of-16 field goal shooting. It's proven to be a mistake to write off the Clippers this season. I'm not going to make that mistake here. |
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06-23-21 | Hawks +8 v. Bucks | Top | 116-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
If the Hawks didn't prove it against the Knicks, they sure proved it against the 76ers. They are young, well-coached, dangerous and can win on the road as their 5-2 away playoff record shows. Trae Young and Atlanta are playing on house money. They are battle-tested now and deserving of more respect than this inflated line. The pressure is on the Bucks, especially at home. Great during the regular season, disappointing in the playoffs. That's what the Bucks have been the previous two seasons under Mike Budenholzer. I don't see the Hawks stopping Giannis Antetokounmpo even though Nate McMillan greatly improved Atlanta's defense. But the Hawks have enough scorers to keep this close if not pull the major upset. Young can win a series by himself with his scoring and passing. The Hawks have other outside shooters and a pair of effective big men, John Collins and Clint Capela. Their talent level is right there with the Bucks. Atlanta has covered in 12 of its last 15 visits to Milwaukee. The point spread is too lopsided. It might not be this high again the rest of the series. |
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06-22-21 | Clippers +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
The Suns played well, especially Devin Booker, and defeated the Clippers, 120-114, in Game 1. The Clippers didn't play as well and were in a quick turnaround spot after having just knocked off the Jazz while the Suns were extremely well-rested. Phoenix made 55 percent of their shots from the floor. The Clippers connected on 45 percent. Yet the Suns still won by just six points. Now that the Clippers have 52 hours between games in Phoenix, I'm expecting a better performance, proper adjustments and a closer game. No Kawhi Leonard for the Clippers, but LA closed out the Jazz without him. No Chris Paul for the Suns, which is just as big of a loss if not more because Paul runs the team and was playing at peak efficiency. The Clippers have made the right adjustments all season. I trust they'll do it again here so I'm taking these points in the belief this is going to be an extremely close game. |
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06-20-21 | Golden Knights -1.5 v. Canadiens | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
Montreal has a surprising 2-1 lead on Las Vegas heading into Game 4 of its Stanley Cup series. But the Canadiens have not shown they are the better team. Not to denigrate the Canadiens' achievement, but they are extremely fortunate to be up. The Golden Knights have been in this come-from-behind position before down 1-0 to the Wild and 2-0 to the Avalanche. They responded each time, winning those series. Las Vegas dominated much of Game 3 only to lose 3-2 in overtime on a rare mistake by rock solid goalie Marc-Andre Fleury. The Golden Knights have fired 106 shots on goalie Carey Price during the first three games. Price can still be very good, as he's shown during the playoffs, but he isn't in his prime. Las Vegas has generated pressure despite Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty, its two best offensive players, generating just one assist between them. Both are way overdue to produce. I see the Golden Knights breaking out in big fashion here so I'm going to lay 1 1/2 goals on the puck line and go for a huge plus price return. |
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06-20-21 | Hawks +7 v. 76ers | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
Discount the Hawks at your own peril. Since the start of March, the Hawks are 34-14. They have won four of six road playoff games, including twice in Philadelphia. The Hawks beat the 76ers when down by 18 points and defeated them again when trailing by 26 points. Just what is so good about the 76ers that they should be this high of a favorite? Doc Rivers isn't a great bench coach. Joel Embiid is dealing with a tear in his right knee and is highly frustrated. Ben Simmons has to be lifted during crucial moments because he can't be trusted. The 76ers haven't proven anything. The 76ers have yet to hold Trae Young in check. The Hawks lost by five points in Game 6 because they only made 13 of 24 free throws, shot 41 percent from the floor and hit just 10 3-pointers out of 31 shots. The looks were there. Atlanta just had a cold-shooting game. All the pressure is on the 76ers. Moreso because they are home. Atlanta is on house money. The 76ers have choked before against this team at home. They are not worthy of being this high of a favorite.
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06-20-21 | Clippers +4 v. Suns | 114-120 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
No Kawhi Leonard. No Chris Paul. The Clippers have shown they can still win without Leonard going 2-0 against the Jazz minus their superstar. But can the Suns win without Paul? Paul was instrumental in Phoenix sweeping Denver averaging 25.5 points and 10.3 assists while playing nearly 36 minutes a game. Now he's out due to COVID protocols. Terance Mann stepped-up big time in relief of Leonard scoring 39 points against the Jazz two days ago. Mann has to be accounted for now after that monster performance. The Suns have yet to prove they can adequately fill Paul's spot and beat an elite opponent in a playoff game. The Suns sweep of Denver could actually hurt them here. The Clippers are riding the momentum of reaching the conference finals for the first time in their history after eliminating the Jazz this past Friday. The Suns, on the other hand, could be flat and rusty having last played a week ago. Phoenix has failed to cover 16 of the last 22 times it has played on three or more day's rest. |
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06-20-21 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Orioles | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
There probably aren't going to be too many opportunities left to fade Matt Harvey. So I'm taking my shot laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line in a monster pitching mismatch of Hyun Jin Ryu versus Harvey. Harvey has a 12.00 ERA in his last SEVEN starts. He's allowed at least five runs in six of those outings never reaching the fifth inning. The Orioles are 12-22 at home and are 9-15 versus lefty starters. Ryu has a 3.25 day time ERA.
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06-18-21 | 76ers -3 v. Hawks | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
What could the 76ers do for an encore after blowing an 18-point lead to the Hawks in Game 4? Blow a 26-point lead in Game 5. This was one of the biggest choke jobs in NBA playoff history. So, why has the oddsmaker made Philadelphia a road favorite for Game 6? Because they know the 76ers are the better team. I agree with that assessement. It might even be better for the 76ers to be getting out of Philadelphia. There's no chance of the 76ers coasting if they build up another early lead on Atlanta. Trae Young is phenomenal. He's a rising superstar. But he goes hot-and-cold. Not so with Joel Embiid. The 76ers can count on Embiid for a huge game even though he's not 100 percent. I trust the rest of the key 76ers - mainly underrated Tobias Harris and Seth Curry - to give Embiid needed scoring assistance. When the Hawks lose during the postseason they lose big. Their three defeats have been by nine points to the Knicks and by 16 twice to the 76ers. |
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06-16-21 | Clippers v. Jazz -2.5 | Top | 119-111 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
The Jazz have played 81 games this season. Not once have they lost three in a row. A combination of talent, home-court and coaching will carry the Jazz through this Game 5 and ensure they won't drop three consecutive games for the first time this season. Utah's defense and bench is far stronger than it showed during the Clippers' 118-104 Game 4 victory in LA two days earlier. The Jazz beat the Clippers in the first two games of the series, both in Utah, and outscored the Clippers by 10 points in the second half of Monday's loss. Utah shot 51.4 percent from the floor in the second half, while holding the Clippers to 42.9 percent shooting from the field during the second half. That bode wells for the Jazz turning things around. So does returning home. Utah is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four games in Salt Lake City. The Clippers are 1-4 ATS as a road 'dog. It's an added plus for Utah if Mike Conley can finally play. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are superstars. But Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell are near that level. Gobert is the best defensive big man in basketball. I also like Utah's reserves more than the Clippers. The Clippers are in trouble if both Leonard and George aren't playing their "A" games. I also give the Jazz a solid coaching advantage with Quin Snyder against Ty Lue. (Update: I made this selection before news of Kawhi Leonard being out surfaced. The line has moved considerably following this news. I still like the Jazz to cover against the Clippers, but I would lower my wager at minus 6 1/2 or more.) |
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06-15-21 | Bucks v. Nets +4.5 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
This Bucks-Nets series has had a certain ebb and flow to it. Brooklyn opened the series as the better team. That's changed now since James Harden and Kyrie Irving were injured. Milwaukee is the superior team now. I acknowledge that. But I believe the combination of Kevin Durant, home court and tremendous emotional energy - part of the ebb and flow after the Bucks won the last two games - will keep the Nets in this one. The Nets are experienced playing without all three of their superstars on the court at the same time. They have role players such as Joe Harris and Blake Griffin who can step up when needed. The Nets' supporting cast, bolstered by adrenalin and home-court, has something to prove after being overlooked all season. This is their chance. Brooklyn has covered in 13 of its last 16 home games. The Bucks have failed to cover nine of the last 13 times they've been favored. I don't trust Milwaukee to cover a margin in this road setting especially when the Bucks could be feeling overconfident facing the Nets minus Harden and Irving. |
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06-14-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -124 | 30 h 22 m | Show |
Few, if any, thought Montreal would be one of the four finalists for the Stanley Cup. But here the Canadiens are. They are loose, playing on house money and in a great position to ambush the host Golden Knights in Monday's opening game of their semifinal series. The Canadiens are rested and prepared having not played in a week after sweeping Winnipeg. The Golden Knights still could be partying after taking care of Colorado in a hard-fought, exciting six-game series that concluded Thursday night. Las Vegas is the superior team. No argument there. But it's a mistake to underestimate Montreal like the oddsmaker has done. So taking 1 1/2 goals on the puck line with Montreal makes tremendous sense. Can the Canadiens actually pull this first game upset? They just have to hang close - and there are signs they can do just that. Montreal has won seven in a row. The Canadiens have a winning road mark. They also have defeated the Golden Knights during their past four meetings with the last coming last year since the teams did not meet this season. Las Vegas played only West Division teams. This is the Golden Knights' first game versus a team outside the West Division. Carey Price could be the hottest goalie of the postseason. He's 8-3 with a 1.97 goals against average and a .935 save percentage. Las Vegas goalies, by comparison, have given up 2.4 goals during the playoffs with a .908 save percentage. The Golden Knights lost Game 1 of their opening playoff series against the Wild. They also lost in Game 1 against Colorado. The Canadiens eliminating the Maple Leafs was as impressive as the Golden Knights taking out the Avalanche. Montreal would be 11-2 in its last 13 games if given 1 1/2 goals. Las Vega would be 3-6 in its last nine games if minus 1 1/2 goals. |
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06-13-21 | Suns -3 v. Nuggets | Top | 125-118 | Win | 100 | 29 h 14 m | Show |
The oddsmaker has adjusted 4 1/2 points from Game 3 when the Suns were road underdogs. It still isn't enough. The Suns are vastly superior to the Jamal Murray-less Nuggets. Phoenix has won by 17, 25 and 14 points at Denver during Friday's Game 3. The Suns still won by double-digits on Friday despite the Nuggets playing the hardest they have all series and their superstar, Nikola Jokic, scoring 32 points, pulling down 20 rebounds and dishing off 10 assists. It didn't matter. The Nuggets don't have the starters to match the Suns and their bench isn't nearly good enough to compensate. The loss of Murray is huge. This is what I wrote for Game 3 when I also had the Suns: "No NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series. I have no doubt that the Nuggets will go all out, mustering all of their intensity. But it won't be enough. This series is a mismatch. Phoenix is playing too well and is two levels - not just one level - above the Nuggets right now." None of that has changed. Devin Booker remains a huge force and Chris Paul is playing great with a 34-to-3 assist-to-turnover ratio in the series. The only change could be Denver's morale and confidence. The Nuggets know no team has come back from a 3-0 series deficit. Their best shot two days ago wasn't nearly enough. That has to be depressing. |
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06-13-21 | Rangers v. Dodgers -1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
The Rangers handed the Dodgers their worst loss of the season last night beating them, 12-1. I see the Dodgers getting big revenge here in a pitching matchup of Walker Buehler versus Dane Dunning. Buehler could break the Dodgers record for longest unbeaten streak if he doesn't lose here, having not lost during his last 21 starts. Buehler is 5-0 with a 2.56 ERA. He's coming off a two-hitter against the Pirates this past Tuesday where he held Pittsburgh scoreless for seven innings. The Pirates are batting .226. The Rangers are hitting .229. Dunning is 2-4 with a 4.26 ERA. He's backed by one of the worst bullpens in the majors. Until stunning the Dodgers on Saturday night, the Rangers had lost 16 straight road games. It was their first win at a National League park in 12 games. The Rangers have lost by multiple runs during each of their past six defeats. LA has far better depth than Texas. This could be telling since teams often use Sunday to play more of their reserves.
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06-11-21 | Suns +1.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
I understand and respect the zig/zag theory of playoff basketball. Denver is down 0-2, returning home in must-win mode. No NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series. I have no doubt that the Nuggets will go all out, mustering all of their intensity. But it won't be enough. This series is a mismatch. Phoenix is playing too well and is two levels - not just one level - above the Nuggets right now. Chris Paul has a 26-to-one assist-to-turnover ratio in the series. Devin Booker is a force. The Nuggets are totally overmatched in the backcourt. This is where Denver really misses injured Jamal Murray. The Nuggets' backcourt is composed of Austin Rivers and Facundo Campazzo. These aren't playoff-caliber starters. Rivers is a journeyman. Campazzo is a reserve thrust in an ill-suited starter's role. The Nuggets were able to overcome the Trail Blazers in their previous playoff series because Portland isn't a good defensive club. Phoenix is. The Suns don't have a weak defender. Phoenix hasn't surrendered more than 109 points in a playoff game. Denver is averaging 101.5 points against the Suns. That's 14 points below its season scoring average. Aside from Nikola Jokic, who has been good but not dominant, the Nuggets don't have the scorers to defeat the Suns. Michael Porter Jr. has back problems and Aaron Gordon is best when he's not needed to be counted on like he is here. The Suns have thrived in this role covering 13 of the last 19 times as a 'dog. |
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06-11-21 | Pirates v. Brewers -1.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
The Brewers have three of the most underrated starting pitchers in the majors. Brandon Woodruff is one of those pitchers. He has a 1.13 ERA in his last 11 starts with 87 strikeouts in his last 72 innings. Milwaukee is 11-2 in its last 13 games. The Brewers have won by more than one run during nine of their last 10 victories, so I feel confident laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line with Woodruff and Milwaukee against the woeful Pirates. Pittsburgh has one decent starter, JT Brubaker, and he's not pitching today. Instead the Pirates are going with Chase De Jong, who has a 5.40 ERA and shouldn't be in a big league starting rotation. Milwaukee has scored 5 or more runs in six of its last eight games. The Pirates have lost 48 of their past 65 road games. |