Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-03-22 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Mavs | Top | 89-103 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
The Nuggets, like most NBA teams, are dealing with COVID issues. But they still have Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon just returned to the lineup following a hamstring injury. Denver also catches Dallas in a vulnerable spot. So I'm going to go ahead and take the points with the road 'dog. The Mavericks got Luka Doncic back in their 95-86 road win against the Thunder on Sunday. Doncic had missed 10 games. He was playing for the first time in 23 days, logging 31 minutes wearing a knee brace. Not surprisingly, he felt sore after the game. So Mavs coach Jason Kidd has to be careful how he uses Doncic in this back-to-back spot. The Nuggets are the more rested team. This is their second game in six days. Dallas is in action for the fifth time in eight days. The Mavericks just concluded a five-game road trip so their concentration level could be off returning home following the holidays. Dallas hasn't been a good spread home team failing to cover in 14 of its last 20 home games. |
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01-02-22 | Vikings v. Packers -13 | Top | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
Aaron Rodgers is making a strong case to repeat as MVP throwing for 16 TD passes without an interception in his last five games. This includes a four-touchdown, 385-yard passing game against the Vikings. The Vikings pulled that game out, 34-31, as Kirk Cousins nearly matched Rodgers. Now Cousins is out due to COVID. The line has skyrocketed because of that to where the Packers are laying two TD's instead of one. Minnesota has played close games every week. But that was with Cousins. The Vikings aren't going to be able to keep up with Rodgers now that Sean Mannion will be their quarterback. Minnesota also is without its second best receiver, Adam Thielen. The Vikings' defense has been disappointing a second straight season giving up 30.4 points in their last five games. The revenge-minded Packers are going to put up their share of points here. I consider Mannion a stiff. I don't see him being able to elevate the Vikings, who have morale issues because of Cousins. Mike Zimmer has lost much of his luster, too. He could be on the way out. |
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01-02-22 | Raiders +8.5 v. Colts | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
The Colts have thrived because of turnovers and the running of Jonathan Taylor, who has emerged as a superstar leading the NFL in rushing. Stop Taylor and don't turn the ball over and you can beat the Colts. Turnovers are hard to predict when there's a veteran at quarterback, which the Raiders have in Derek Carr. The Raiders have improved their run defense. They held Nick Chubb to less than 4.0 yards a carry in beating the Browns two weeks ago. Then Las Vegas stopped Denver's rushing attack completely last week in a victory. The Broncos managed only 18 yards on the ground. The Colts are expected to have Carson Wentz. It's a big break for the Raiders if rookie Sam Ehlinger has to make his first start. I'm not counting on that. But lost in the news that Wentz is likely to play is the Raiders getting four key defenders removed from the COVID list - leading tackler linebacker Denzel Perryman, linebacker Cory Littleton, lineman Darius Philon and cornerback Casey Hayward, who is having a huge bounce back season. The Raiders are 2-1 in their last three road games. They can clinch their first playoff berth in 19 years with a victory here and in Week 18 against the Chargers. |
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01-01-22 | Spurs -6.5 v. Pistons | 116-117 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
The Pistons are an NBA team in name only. They may have been the worst team in the league - and that was before injuries and COVID-19 chewed up nearly their entire roster. Aside from Saddiq Bey and Hamidou Diallo, the Pistons lack NBA-qualified players. This is reflected in Detroit losing 18 of its last 19 games. The two teams just met six days ago. Final score: San Antonio 144, Detroit 109. The Pistons couldn't stop any of the Spurs. The Spurs aren't likely to win by 35 points again, but they should easily prevail by double digits. San Antonio won't enter this matchup overconfident after losing, 118-105, to the Grizzlies on the road last night. Fatigue shouldn't factor for the Spurs either as they had been idle for four days prior to that game. |
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12-31-21 | Clippers v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
The Raptors were one of many NBA teams ravaged by COVID. But now they should be back at nearly full strength getting back Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby and Scottie Barnes. That's a combined scoring mark of nearly 55 points. These key cogs will join Pascal Siakam, Gary Trent Jr. and Malachi Flynn, who returned in the Raptors' last game three days ago, a 114-109 home loss to the 76ers. The Raptors are rejuvenated now and should be sky high being home to take on the Clippers, who are in a flat spot after beating the Celtics, 91-82, on the road two days ago. The Clippers are 2-8 ATS following a point spread cover. The Clippers are minus their two best players with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George both out. They also are missing Nicholas Batum and possibly Reggie Jackson. The Clippers have yet to get it together this season. They were 1-5 before upsetting the Celtics. |
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12-31-21 | Rutgers v. Wake Forest -16 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
Exit Texas A&M. Enter Rutgers. The result is Wake Forest is going to win this Gator Bowl. The question is by how many? The Aggies had to pull out due to COVID problems. Rutgers was chosen to replace Texas A&M. The Scarlet Knights' season should have ended at the end of November since they are 5-7. They weren't even eligible to play in a bowl. But strange things happen in this COVID-laced sports world. So, just barely a week ago, the Scarlet Knights found out they are going to a bowl game after all. This one. Two things: Rutgers isn't a legitimate bowl team and the Scarlet Knights don't nearly have enough time mentally and physically to adequately prepare for this game. The line has been steamed up and it's justified. Wake Forest has a very strong offense averaging 41.2 points a game, fifth-best in the country. Sam Hartman was one of the most productive QB's in the nation. Rutgers ranked 79th in total defense and that's playing against a number of boring offenses in the Big Ten. The Demon Deacons aren't nearly as good defensively, but Rutgers is very weak offensively ranking 113th in points scored and 118th in yardage. This is a real mismatch where the opponent and situation work strongly against Rutgers. |
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12-30-21 | Arizona State v. Wisconsin -6 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
I see a class difference of more than a touchdown here. Current form counts for something, too. The Badgers went 7-1 down the stretch. They led the nation in total defense and were sixth in scoring defense surrendering 16.4 points per game. The Sun Devils are 96th in passing offense. Their QB, Jayden Daniels, hasn't lived up to lofty expectations. The game is in Las Vegas. But Arizona State won't have a crowd advantage because the Badgers travel extremely well with tremendous fan support. |
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12-30-21 | Bucks -14 v. Magic | 136-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
This would be a huge mismatch if the teams were fully healthy. But they're not. Milwaukee not only is vastly superior - an "A'' level team to Orlando's "F'' level - but the Bucks are healthy and the Magic are down numerous rotation players because of COVID. The Bucks have won 10 straight versus Orlando, including all three meetings this season. Milwaukee has won these games by an average of 19 points. The two teams just met two days ago. The Bucks built a 29-point lead and sailed to a 127-110 victory. It was the Bucks' 15th win in their last 20 games. Yes, garbage time could be a problem if the Bucks build another huge early lead as expected. But the Bucks have tremendous team depth, have everyone healthy except Brook Lopez and are idle on Friday. So they should be able to maintain a healthy advantage throughout the game. The Magic may have motivation with triple in-season revenge, but they lack the bodies and talent to stay close. Orlando has lost by double-digits during five of its last six losses. |
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12-29-21 | Oregon v. Oklahoma -6.5 | Top | 32-47 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show |
Opt-outs and transfers can greatly impact a bowl game. We saw it happen with Nevada in the Quick Lane Bowl on Monday when Western Michigan blew out the Wolf Pack, 52-24. Nevada was missing its star QB plus all of its best receivers. Oregon is down around 30 scholarship players, including star defensive lineman Kayvon Thibodeaux. The Ducks did not look good down the stretch either losing a pair of games to Utah by the combined score of 76-17. Oklahoma is a top-12 team in scoring and yards. I much prefer Sooners freshman QB Caleb Williams to the Ducks' inconsistent signal-caller, Anthony Brown. Williams took the starting job away from Spencer Rattler, who was considered a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender before the season. Williams threw for 1,670 yards with an 18-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The game is being played in San Antonio, Texas. That's a plus for Oklahoma, which is the closer school and should have a higher fan turnout. |
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12-29-21 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -5.5 | 99-104 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
The timing is right for the Grizzlies to continue their winning ways. Memphis is 7-3 in its last 10 games and has its star guard, Ja Morant, back in the lineup. The Grizzlies are 11-5 ATS in their past 16 games. The Lakers snapped a five-game losing streak outscoring the Rockets, 132-123, last night. LeBron James played nearly 40 minutes and Russell Westbrook logged nearly 35 minutes against the Rockets. The Lakers have already used 19 different lineups. They are down four rotation players due to COVID protocols along with being without injured Anthony Davis. The Lakers are 3-12 ATS versus above .500 teams. The Grizzlies have covered five of their past six home games against the Lakers.
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12-29-21 | Hornets v. Pacers -3 | 116-108 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
The Pacers have covered four of the last five times they've hosted the Hornets. I expect them to cover this short number, too. Indiana has played far better at home than on the road this season. The Pacers are 5-1 in their last six home contests. During this span they beat the Wizards by six, Knicks by 20, Mavericks by 13, lost to the Warriors by just two, defeated the Pistons by nine and rolled the Rockets by 12. The Pacers have good backcourt depth if Malcolm Brogdon can't play. Indiana's frontline is boosted by the return of Domantas Sabonis. The Hornets are 3-7 in their last 10 road games.
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12-28-21 | Thunder v. Kings -5 | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
The Kings provided quite a surprise to their interim coach, Alvin Gentry, on his first game back from a COVID-19 related absence this past Sunday. Sacramento was whipped, 127-102, at home by Memphis. A livid Gentry called it the most disappointing performance he's had in his 34 years in the NBA. Gentry totally ripped his Kings. So I want the Kings going for me in what I anticipate should be an all-out effort. Oklahoma City is playing well, but the Thunder are one of the weaker teams in the NBA. They are fat and happy after upsetting the Pelicans at home in their last game two days ago. De'Aaron Fox returned from missing four games due to COVID protocols. He didn't play well against the Grizzlies, but he should have gotten the rust off. Fox is the Kings' best player and makes them a better team.
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12-28-21 | Knicks -2.5 v. Wolves | 96-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
I want to fade the Timberwolves after they rallied to beat the Celtics, 108-103, at home last night. The Timberwolves accomplished this task minus their three best players - Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and D'Angelo Russell. I don't see a repeat performance for Minnesota playing without rest and down seven players all together because of COVID-19 protocols. The Knicks last played on Saturday when they rolled past the Hawks, 101-87, on the road with Kemba Walker having his best game of the season.
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12-27-21 | Rockets +6.5 v. Hornets | 99-123 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
This is the Rockets' fifth straight road game. But it's their first game in four days. They draw the Hornets playing at home for the first time in 17 days. Charlotte recently returned from a six-game road trip. It's tough playing that first game at home from a concentration standpoint after being away for so long. The Rockets' rotation depth is better with the return of Jalen Green. The Hornets, meanwhile, have been missing a key rotation player, Cody Martin. The underrated Martin has missed the last three games because of COVID-19 safety protocol. The Hornets are simply a .500 team. I don't think they're good enough to cover a mid-size point spread given this spot. |
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12-27-21 | Western Michigan -7 v. Nevada | Top | 52-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
Nevada faced a situational challenge for this Quick Lane Bowl with the game being played in Detroit. Another break for Western Michigan is the 8 a.m. West Coast start time. Nevada is used to playing its games late in the afternoon, or at night. But these situational disadvantages are nothing for the Wolf Pack compared to them losing nearly 20 players to opt outs or transfers. The list of those out for Nevada, include their star QB, Carson Strong, star tight end, Cole Turner, along with their three best wide receivers and two starting offensive linemen. The Wolf Pack have nothing left of their passing attack facing a Western Michigan defense that ranked in the top 30 in total defense. Nevada doesn't have a reliable ground attack to fall back on either since it averaged fewer than three yards per carry. The Broncos have a balanced offense that ranked 15th in the nation in total yards. Kaleb Eleby is one of the better QB's in the MAC and Skyy Moore was one of the top wide receivers in the conference.
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12-26-21 | Nuggets v. Clippers +4 | 103-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
This a battle of two disappointing, injury/illness racked teams. Yes, the Clippers are missing several key players, including Paul George. But the Nuggets also are minus important players, including Jamal Murray, Michael Porter and possibly Aaron Gordon. So I see no reason why the Nuggets should be this high of road chalk. The Nuggets will have the best player on the court, Nikola Jokic. The Clippers have the big body depth to defend him, though, with a rejuvenated Serge Ibaka and Ivica Zubac. Denver is 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four games. The Clippers have been up and down. They won four in a row before losing three straight. The Clippers halted that losing skid in their last game, a 105-89 road win against the Kings four days ago. The Clippers are 21-6-1 ATS when playing on three or more day's rest. They also are 9-3 ATS the last 12 times as a home 'dog. |
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12-26-21 | Washington Football Team +10.5 v. Cowboys | 14-56 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 45 m | Show | |
The Cowboys' defense is better. However, their offense is worse. The combination of that, short revenge for Washington, the return of Taylor Heinicke and a boatload of points in this long-standing division rivalry puts me on Washington. Dallas may not have its full motivation having clinched a playoff berth already when the 49ers lost to the Titans on Thursday. The Cowboys nearly blew a 19-point lead when the teams met two weeks ago winning, 27-20. Washington will have Heinicke back after being forced to go with street free agent Garrett Gilbert against the Eagles last week due to Heinicke and backup QB Kyle Allen being sidelined by COVID-19. Washington is 6-6 with Heinicke under center. Dak Prescott (calf) and Ezekiel Elliott (knee) are not 100 percent - and their performances have reflected that. Prescott has failed to exceed 238 yards passing in four of his last five games. Prescott has three TD passes and three interceptions in his last three games. Elliott hasn't broken the 52-yard rushing barrier in his last eight games. He's averaged more than 3.0 yards per carry only once during these past eight games. Mike McCarthy brazenly and foolishly guaranteed the Cowboys would beat Washington in the first meeting. Ron Rivera could not have taken kindly to that amateurish display. Rivera is the better coach. It wouldn't shock me if Washington won this game straight-up. |
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12-26-21 | Broncos +1 v. Raiders | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 58 m | Show |
Both teams are 7-7. But I consider the Broncos to be the superior team. I like the Broncos' defense, coaching, running backs and wide receivers better than the Raiders. I also give Denver a checkmark at tight end if Darren Waller has to miss another week. Denver has held opponents to 17 points or fewer in six of its last eight games. The Raiders have managed 16 points or fewer in six of their last seven games. Hunter Renfroe has emerged as the Raiders' most productive offensive player. He does his damage from the slot. However, the Broncos get back cornerback Bryce Callahan this week from a knee injury. He's one of the better slot coverage corners. He gives the Broncos a strong secondary to go with cornerback Patrick Surtain and safety Justin Simmons. Drew Lock is going to start for injured Teddy Bridgewater. I welcome that change from a Denver standpoint. Lock doesn't have Bridgewater's accuracy, but he's more of a downfield threat. He is better equipped to take advantage of the Broncos many receiving weapons, which include Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and Noah Fant. Lock has been turnover-prone in the past. The Raiders, though, have a league-low five interceptions, only three by their cornerbacks. The Raiders' secondary also is dealing with COVID-19 and injuries. Safety Jonathan Abram is out for the season. I also give the Broncos a strong running back edge with Melvin Gordon and good-looking rookie Javonte Williams. They can take the pressure off Lock. The Raiders have only eight sacks in their last six games. |
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12-26-21 | Jaguars +2.5 v. Jets | 21-26 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 38 m | Show | |
Jacksonville has a real opportunity to do something it hasn't done during the last 15 games - win on the road. The opponent and timing are right for the Jaguars to halt the NFL's longest road losing streak. The Jets are terrible on both sides of the ball giving up the most yards and points while ranking 27th in scoring. They've also committed the most turnovers. If this isn't bad enough, the Jets are dealing with a major COVID-19 problem. Currently they have 18 players on the protocol list along with head coach Robert Saleh. The Jets already have many key injuries. They don't have the depth to deal with this. Jacksonville has the better defense, superior quarterback and top running back in James Robinson. The Jaguars give up 5.7 yards per play, which ranks 21st in the league. The Jets rank last allowing 6.2 yards per play. I'm not a huge fan of Darrell Bevell and Brian Schottenheimer, the Jaguars' new offensive brain trust. But they are professionals and an upgrade on clueless Urban Meyer. The Jaguars should be more focused for this matchup without the toxic Meyer after having to play the Texans last week just three days after finding out Meyer had been fired. |
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12-26-21 | Lions v. Falcons -6.5 | 16-20 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 59 m | Show | |
Missing Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley for much of the year, Matt Ryan has had a very disappointing season. So have the Falcons.
The Lions are off just their second victory. Detroit has yet to win on the road. The Lions nipped the Vikings, 29-27, three games ago for their first win. Detroit followed that up by getting hammered on the road by the Broncos, 38-10. Now the Lions are off a 30-12 victory against the Cardinals and taking to the road. The Lions aren't expected to have Jared Goff. There's a huge drop from Goff to backup Tim Boyle, who is not going to be helped playing on the road. Detroit also has a cluster injury problem at cornerback. The Lions already were down Jeff Okudah and his replacement, Jerry Jacobs. Now they aren't expected to have Amani Oruwariye, who has become their No. 1 corner. Oruwariye has a thumb injury and may need surgery. So the Lions will have to face Ryan with Will Harris, a converted safety, and rookie Ifeatu Melifonwu at the starting cornerback spots. It's not like the Lions have the depth to fill these areas. Detroit ranks in the bottom-eight in all of the major defensive categories. The Falcons can't beat elite teams, but they've been solid against sub .500 foes having defeated the Giants, Jets, Jaguars and Panthers. |
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12-26-21 | Giants +10 v. Eagles | 10-34 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 42 m | Show | |
The Eagles have won four of their last five games to reach 7-7. The Eagles are more average than good, though. During this five-game span the Eagles have faced the following five quarterbacks: Garrett Gilbert, Zach Wilson, Daniel Jones, Trevor Siemian and Teddy Bridgewater. Philadelphia's lone loss during this time frame came to Jones and the Giants, 13-17, in Week 12. Jalen Hurts had the worst game of his two-year NFL career in that matchup throwing three interceptions. The Giants won't have the injured Jones. Instead they'll go with untested Jake Fromm, who will be making his NFL first start. Fromm is a downgrade from Jones, but he can't be worse than Mike Glennon. Fromm has had a full week of working with New York's first-stringers this week. He has good skill position weapons. The Giants are out of playoff contention at 4-10. But their defense has been hanging in and they will have motivation for this matchup. If you discount games against the Chargers and Buccaneers - two offenses with far stronger passing attacks than the Eagles - the Giants have given up an average of 17.8 points in their last six games. Besides this being a long-standing division rivalry, the Giants still hold a legitimate grudge against the Eagles for Philadelphia tanking in last season's finale against Washington. The Giants beat the Cowboys in their final game, but were denied the NFC East Division title when the Eagles failed to beat Washington. Then Eagles coach Doug Pederson replaced Hurts with backup Nate Sudfeld during the fourth quarter against Washington. Sudfeld was horrible, to no one's surprise, committing two costly turnovers. The Giants also want to see if Fromm can do anything given an opportunity. So there's some intrigue there. |
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12-25-21 | Ball State v. Georgia State -5.5 | 20-51 | Win | 100 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
This is far from being one of the better bowl matchups, but it's the only one on Christmas and there are enough edges for Georgia State to get involved in backing the Panthers. Georgia State is in much better current form than Ball State winning six of its last seven games. The Panthers finished as the No. 2 team in the Sun Belt Conference. They have a good football program and this is a chance for country-wise exposure being on national TV. The Panthers beat Western Kentucky, 39-21, in the LendingTree Bowl last season as a 3-point favorite. Ball State is a middle-of-the-road Mid-American Conference team that shouldn't even be in a bowl game at 6-6. The Cardinals are 4-8 ATS. They have lost three of their last five games. Georgia State holds a big edge on the ground. The Panthers rank eighth in rushing. Ball State is 96th in stopping the run giving up nearly 180 yards rushing.
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12-23-21 | Hornets v. Nuggets -2.5 | 115-107 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
The Hornets conclude their six-game, 11-day road trip in Denver's high altitude. Key rotation player Cody Martin is out for Charlotte and Gordon Hayward is questionable with a back injury. The Nuggets won't be feeling sorry for the Hornets, who have lost their last three games by nine points to the Trail Blazers, 31 to the Suns and 10 to the Jazz. Denver is off a 108-94 road loss to the Thunder where the Nuggets were 6 1/2-point favorites. Previous to that game, though, Denver hadn't played since Friday. So the Nuggets shouldn't be rusty like they were against the Thunder. They also shouldn't be fatigued either since nobody played more than 27 minutes last night. Charlotte is 10-21 ATS the past 31 times as an underdog. The Hornets have failed to cover during their last four visits to Denver. |
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12-23-21 | Thunder v. Suns -14.5 | 101-113 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
This is a big number, but the Suns are more than capable of covering it especially with Devin Booker back in the lineup. Phoenix has won its last three games by 20 points against the Wizards at home, defeated the Hornets by 31 at home and the Lakers on the road by 18. Those teams are all better than Oklahoma City. The Thunder actually is in a letdown spot after springing a 108-94 home upset win against the Nuggets last night for their third straight victory. It would not surprise me if the Thunder mailed this one in being the night before Christmas. The Suns are the third-highest scoring team in the league and rank fourth defensively. They've been the second best team in the NBA in defensive efficiency if you go by the last 10 games.
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12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans +3.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
I want the Titans going for me in a Thursday night home underdog role desperately needing a victory. The Titans have cobbled together a serviceable ground attack without Derrick Henry and they're getting back their two best wide receivers, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. That's huge for Ryan Tannehill, who has suffered without his two top targets. The 49ers are banged-up in the secondary. They also will be missing their leading rusher, Elijah Mitchell. San Francisco is ground-oriented. The 49ers set up the pass via running the ball. The Titans, however, rank No. 2 in run defense. Tennessee has improved very much defensively. Discounting giving up 36 points to the Patriots, the Titans have held their past five opponents to an average of 15.6 points. They just held the Steelers to 168 total yards last week. That was the least amount of yards Tennessee has permitted in 11 years. The 49ers are on a nice roll, but I don't consider them an elite NFC team worthy of beating a similar-caliber AFC team. |
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12-20-21 | Thunder +9 v. Grizzlies | Top | 102-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
This is the revenge game of the year for Oklahoma City. The Grizzlies broke an NBA record for largest victory margin when they buried the Thunder, 152-179, at home on Dec. 2. The Thunder surely will be highly motivated. They have some confidence, too, after nipping the Clippers, 104-103, this past Saturday. Lugentz Dort, one of the more underrated players in the league, is back for the Thunder after being out with an ankle injury. Oklahoma City is 8-2 ATS the last 10 times as an underdog. Memphis could be coming back to earth after falling, 105-100, to the Trail Blazers on Sunday. The Grizzlies were 10-1 going into that game. Memphis still is without injured Ja Morant. This will be the Grizzlies' fourth game in six days, too. So there's a fatigue issue with them. |
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12-20-21 | Maryland-Eastern Shore v. Charlotte -11.5 | 54-70 | Win | 100 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
Strength of schedule is huge here. Charlotte's last three games have been against Arkansas, Valparaiso and Wake Forest. Maryland Eastern Shore has played far easier opponents. So the 49ers are stepping way down in class. The 49ers are a far better shooting team than Maryland Eastern Shore both from the field and foul line. |
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12-19-21 | Saints v. Bucs -11 | 9-0 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 60 m | Show | |
Much has changed since the Saints beat the Buccaneers, 31-27, back on Oct. 31. None of it good for New Orleans. The Saints are going to be minus their two star offensive tackles. Sean Payton also is unavailable. New Orleans has become a run-option team after losing Jameis Winston in that win against the Buccaneers. The Bucs are extremely hard to run on ranking No. 3 in rush defense. The Buccaneers are 6-0 at home. They are healthier than the Saints and have revenge. Tom Brady is having one of his greatest seasons leading the NFL in pass completions, attempts, yards and TD's with 36. The Saints don't have enough depth in their secondary to defend all of Brady's stud targets. Being a run-oriented team now the Saints also lack the firepower to hang with the Buccaneers, nor get a backdoor cover. |
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12-19-21 | Falcons +10 v. 49ers | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -117 | 44 h 15 m | Show |
No team has been worse as a big home favorite than the 49ers under Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco has failed to cover the last 10 times they've been home chalk when laying 5 or more points. All together, they are 4-15-1 ATS in this role. The Falcons have been at their best on the road winning six of eight games away from Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Cordarrelle Patterson has emerged this season as a rushing/receiver threat rather than just a dangerous kick returner. His presence relieves much of the pressure on Matt Ryan to have to win this game himself. The Falcons' ground game has picked up thanks to Patterson, averaging 132.6 rushing yards the past three games. Atlanta remains in the playoff hunt so a hard effort should be a given. San Francisco has been hard hit by injuries in the secondary and at running back. The 49ers are ground-oriented with a game-manager type QB in Jimmy Garoppolo. They are not geared to covering big margins like this. |
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12-19-21 | Titans v. Steelers +1 | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 40 h 4 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh is home and in must-win mode at 6-6-1 while the Titans have clear sailing to the AFC South Division title. The Titans, though, are not the same team since losing Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown, their best wide receiver. Tennessee hasn't broken the 23-point barrier in its last four games, averaging 17.2 points during this span. The Steelers' defense should be much better with T.J. Watt and cornerback Joe Haden returning to the lineup. Ryan Tannehill hasn't passed for more than 213 yards in four of his last five games. The Titans' defense isn't strong enough to carry their depleted offense minus linebacker Bud Dupree and a banged-up secondary. Najee Harris has lived up to lofty expectations and Ben Roethlisberger still is showing life averaging 270 yards passing his past four games with nine TD throws during this time frame. The Steelers also are on extra rest having played last Thursday. That's big this late in the season. |
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12-19-21 | Cal-Irvine v. Duquesne +6.5 | 54-76 | Win | 100 | 2 h 3 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker opened this total low and the marketplace has lowered it even more. That tells you points are going to be hard to come by. Duquesne has the inside game to make this a close game if not pull the outright upset. Cal Irvine is averaging only 58 points in its last two games. This game is at a neutral site. The Anteaters are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 neutral site games when laying points.
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12-18-21 | UTEP v. Fresno State -11 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -115 | 142 h 14 m | Show |
This line originally was set too low because Fresno State was going to be without its coach, Kalen DeBoer, and star QB, Jake Haener. DeBoer is headed to Washington to take over the Huskies' program. But Haener isn't going with him as originally thought. Haener has decided to stay at Fresno State and not transfer after the Bulldogs named highly-respected QB guru Jeff Tedford as their new head coach replacing DeBoer. The Bulldogs are far more talented than UTEP, strong on both sides of the ball. Talent-wise, the Bulldogs are easily two TD's better than the Miners. Motivation is a key. UTEP will have it playing in-state and not having been to a bowl since 2014. Fresno State went 9-3. The Bulldogs were hoping to land a bigger bowl spot. But now that Tedford is their coach, I believe the Bulldogs will produce a strong effort as they have many returning starters. They won't want to embarrass interim coach Les Marks knowing Tedford will be closely following things. So that motivation angle is heavily reduced. Fresno State also has more bowl experience. Fresno State has a balanced attack with several good running backs. Haener is one of the better QB's on the West Coast. He passed for 3,810 yards and 32 TD passes. He has a pro caliber wideout in Jaylen Cropper. Haener's passing efficiency mark of 158.1 was the best in the Mountain West Conference and 15th best in the nation. The Miners have little backdoor ability if they should fall behind, which is highly likely. |
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12-17-21 | Nuggets v. Hawks -3.5 | 133-115 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
A thin roster and fatigue are taking a toll on the Nuggets. Denver was blown out by 17 points at home against the Timberwolves two days ago. Now the Nuggets go on the road playing for the sixth time in 10 days. The Nuggets are down several rotation players. The Hawks, on the other hand, are in action for just the fourth time in 11 days. They are off a 111-99 win against the Magic, which was their fifth straight road victory. Atlanta is the fourth-highest scoring team in the NBA. The Nuggets surrendered 124 points to Minnesota, the second-most they've allowed all season. The Hawks like to push tempo. That's bad for the Nuggets. Denver is 1-6 ATS in its last seven visits to Atlanta. The Nuggets also have failed to cover seven of the past nine times they've been 'dogs.
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12-16-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Chargers | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
Nearly three months ago, the Chargers and Chiefs played in Kansas City. Justin Herbert threw a TD pass to Mike Williams with 32 seconds left to give LA a 30-24 victory. Now comes the rematch where if the Chargers win again they would tie the Chiefs for first place in the AFC West Division. Not going to happen, though. The Chiefs will win and cover this short spread. I'm very confident writing this. Why? Kansas City is playing its best ball and the Chargers will be missing at least one key player. I have full confidence in Patrick Mahomes, who is rounding back into his superstar form, and is aided not only by star receivers Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, but a finally-healthy Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The Chargers have given up an average of 26.1 points during their last nine games. They rank 31st in run defense so Edwards-Helaire could produce a big game. The Chiefs are peaking, unlike when they met the Chargers back in late September. Kansas City has won six in a row, the last four by an average of 21.7 points. No team has produced more than 17 points on the Chiefs during Kansas City's last six games. The Chiefs have allowed exactly nine points in each of their last three games. Linebacker Melvin Ingram has been one of the reasons for the Chiefs' defensive turnaround. He played for the Chargers from 2017-2020. He knows them well. Remember the name Trey Pipkins III. Who? He's a little used back-up offensive lineman for the Chargers. He's going to start at left tackle - yes the spot where Herbert's blindside is - replacing standout rookie left tackle Rashawn Slater, who is on the COVID-19 reserve list. Pipkins has played only 27 offensive snaps this season. Usually being the home team for the Thursday night game is a big factor. The Chargers, however, don't have much of a home field advantage because they lack fan support in LA at SoFi Stadium. The short week hurts the Chargers on the injury front. Not only is Slater out, but star running back Austin Ekeler (knee), safety Derwin James (hamstring) and cornerback Asante Samuel Jr. (hamstring) are all questionable. James is the Chargers' second-leading tackler. |
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12-16-21 | 76ers +1.5 v. Nets | 105-114 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
I understand the Nets being favored at home. But they shouldn't be considering their COVID situation. This is who the Nets will be missing: James Harden, LaMarcus Aldridge, DeAndre' Bembry - all starters - along with Bruce Brown, Jevon Carter, James Johnson and Paul Millsap. That leaves the Nets' thin bench with just three rookies. The Nets are going to encounter an angry 76ers team that is off an embarrassing, 101-96, home loss to the Heat last night. 76ers coach Doc Rivers ripped his team after that game. I'm expecting the 76ers to be fired up. They certainly are capable, having defeated the Warriors just five days ago. Joel Embiid is expected to play. But I still would like the 76ers even if he isn't considering the drastic situation the Nets are in. Brooklyn has failed to cover the last six times as a home favorite. |
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12-15-21 | Pacers v. Bucks +2 | Top | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
Surprised the Bucks are a home 'dog to the Pacers? Don't be. Giannis Antetokounmpo is out and Khris Middleton also may miss this game because of a knee injury suffered against the Celtics this past Monday. Still, I want the Bucks going for me. The Bucks are off a bad 117-103 loss to the Celtics. They lost that game with Antetokounmpo in the lineup. Milwaukee has a deep bench that can withstand its two best players being out at home against a mediocre opponent. The Bucks' rotation gets a boost with defensive specialist Donte DiVincenzo expected to make his season debut after being out with an ankle injury. This is just Indiana's second road game since Nov. 23. The Pacers lost to the Timberwolves in their last away matchup back on Nov. 29. Indiana is 3-10 on the road. The Bucks have won their last eight home contests. The Bucks also are 2-0 versus the Pacers this season winning those games by an average of 14 points. |
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12-14-21 | North Carolina-Asheville -3.5 v. Tenn-Martin | 68-79 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
Asheville is on a nice 5-0-1 ATS covering run. I believe the oddsmaker opened the Bulldogs short in this one still not having a right read yet on this team. The Bulldogs are 13-6-1 ATS the last 20 times they've been favored. Tennessee-Martin ranks 302nd in scoring defense permitting nearly 75 points a game. The Skyhawks have allowed at least 81 points in three of their last four games. They are on a four-game losing streak with the closest game being nine points during this span.
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12-14-21 | Northwestern State +35 v. LSU | 49-89 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 0 m | Show | |
Northwestern State certainly is going to take this in-state non-conference game more seriously than LSU. The Tigers are 9-0 and riding high. But they've been a little too sloppy with taking care of the ball to lay this huge of a number. The Demons are not good, but they should not be dominated on the boards. They also have better backcourt depth with Carvell Teasett back in the lineup. He played for the first time in the Demons' last game and scored nine points with five assists. |
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12-13-21 | Wizards +3.5 v. Nuggets | 107-113 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
The Wizards won't lack incentive here coming off an embarrassing 25-point home loss to the Jazz this past Saturday. It's a huge game for Washington's first-year head coach Wes Unseld Jr. He spent the previous six years as an assistant coach for the Nuggets. So he's extremely knowledgeable about the Nuggets in this non-conference matchup. Washington draws Denver at what should be an opportune time. The Nuggets just completed a seven-game, six-city road trip. They haven't been at home since Nov. 26. So their concentration level could be off having been away for so long. The Nuggets also could be minus two rotation players with Will Barton and Aaron Gordon questionable. |
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12-13-21 | Rams +2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
As good as the Cardinals have been this season they still haven't done much at home. Arizona has lost its past two home contests - to the Packers and Panthers - and has a losing spread mark at home. The Cardinals would have a losing straight-up mark at home, too, if they didn't nip the Vikings by one point. The Rams trail Arizona by two games in the NFC West making this a must-win spot for them. Not that they would want to, but the Cardinals can take a loss here. Arizona also gets to play the Lions next week. Both teams have excellent statistics. The Rams, though, rank higher than the Cardinals in yards per play and defensive yards per play. Those are underrated and telling numbers. Arizona halted an eight-game losing streak to the Rams with a 37-20 victory in Week 4. The Rams didn't have Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr. back then. |
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12-13-21 | Warriors -2.5 v. Pacers | 102-100 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
The Warriors haven't lost two games in a row all season. They are the best team in the NBA. I look for them to bounce back strong against the Pacers after getting beat by the 76ers on the road two days ago. The Pacers have stepped up their game winning three in a row. Those victories were against slumping teams - Wizards, Knicks and Mavericks.
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12-12-21 | Lions v. Broncos -10 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 64 h 49 m | Show | |
Let's start with the premise Denver is going to win. This is perfectly logical since the Broncos are favored by double-digits and the Lions have one victory during their past 16 games. Now the hard part. Will Denver cover the spread? The evidence and situation say they will. The Broncos are 6-6. Their six victories were by 14 against the Giants, by 10 against the Jaguars, the Jets by 26, 7 over Washington, 14 against the Cowboys and 15 versus the Chargers. So all but one of their wins was by double-digits. The Broncos take care of business against bad teams. Their average winning margin against the Giants, Jaguars and Jets was 16.6 points. Denver has lost only once to a sub .500 team. That was to the 6-7 Eagles. Now the situation. The Broncos remain in the playoff hunt. The Lions are fat and happy having ended the NFL's longest losing streak with their victory against the Vikings at home last Sunday. The Lions hadn't reached 20 points since opening week prior to beating the Vikings, while averaging a puny 11.4 points during their previous four games. Vic Fangio isn't going to be too challenged devising a defensive game plan to face such a weak offense, which probably will be devoid of its best player, injured D'Andre Swift. Jared Goff has never been a cold weather quarterback. The Broncos have an excellent secondary and their pass rush has improved. |
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12-11-21 | Warriors -3 v. 76ers | Top | 93-102 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
No brilliant handicap here. Just a huge class difference. The Warriors are the best team in basketball with a 21-4 record. They rank first defensively and are No. 3 in scoring. The 76ers are 14-12 with a losing home record. They've been without superstar center Joel Embiid, but even with him they still aren't within two levels of Golden State. The teams met on Nov. 24 at Golden State and the Warriors won, 116-96. The 76ers didn't have Embiid and Tobias Harris in that game. They should have them here although Embiid is dealing with abdominal pain after just returning from the COVID-19 list. Sure Embiid and Harris bolster the 76ers a lot. Just not enough to keep them in this point spread range. The Warriors have been idle since Wednesday. They are 14-3 ATS during their last 17 games versus above .500 opponents so they haven't been just fattening up on bad teams. The 76ers have failed to cover in their last six home games. The game is being nationally televised by ABC so the Warriors should be pumped especially with Stephen Curry in pursuit of the all-time 3-point record. |
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12-11-21 | Minnesota +14 v. Michigan | 75-65 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
Michigan is good, but was overrated to begin the season. Minnesota is just the opposite. The Gophers entered the season with no expectations, but are 7-1 winning their first seven games. They hung in against 19th-ranked Michigan State in its Big Ten opener, losing 75-67. The Gophers split against Michigan last season. |
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12-11-21 | Navy v. Army -7 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -118 | 90 h 35 m | Show |
There doesn't figure to be many points scored in this matchup and what few points are likely to be scored by Army. The Black Knights are better than Navy on both sides of the ball. Army ranks 20th in scoring and gives up the 16th-fewest yards per game. The Black Knights are the second-best running team in the nation averaging 301.2 yards. They are No. 1 in average time of possession. They've converted on close to 49 percent of their third down plays and 71 percent on fourth down. Navy has a decent run defense. But the Midshipmen have no offense ranking 115th in scoring at 20.4 points a game, 126th in total yards and last in passing yards. They've also turned the ball over 31 times, which is the fifth-highest mark in the country. Army shut out Navy last season, 15-0. The Black Knights are 8-3 with a four-game win streak. They've beaten Navy in four of the past five seasons. Jeff Monken has been Army's coach for eight seasons. This is one of his strongest Army teams. This is one of Ken Niumatalolo's weaker Navy teams with a 3-8 record. Spirits will be high, but I see Army grinding out a double-digit victory with Navy unable to put up enough points to keep this close. |
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12-10-21 | Lakers -4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 116-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
One thing's for sure here: The Lakers won't be taking the young, rebuilding Thunder for granted. This is the third meeting between the teams. The Lakers are 0-2 versus Oklahoma City blowing leads of 26 and 19 points. LA has been playing better after a disappointing November going 3-2 in its last five games. During this span, the Lakers blew out the Kings on the road and Celtics at home. They lost by four to the Clippers, who played their "A" game in that matchup, and last night were flat in a road loss to the Grizzlies. The Thunder return home winners of two straight road games beating the Pistons and Raptors. It's a rare situation where the Thunder are fat and happy. They also haven't been home in nine days so their focus could be off. Before their two-game road win streak, the Thunder had lost eight in a row, including a mind-boggling 73-point loss to the Grizzlies three games ago. |
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12-10-21 | Murray State v. Memphis -10 | 74-72 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm going to lay the wood with Memphis State in a stop-the-pain situation. The Tigers have followed a five-game win streak to open the season with consecutive losses to Iowa State, Georgia and Mississippi. That didn't sit well with Tigers coach Penny Hardaway, who ripped his team. I see the Tigers responding in a big way and taking their frustrations out on Murray State, which is 3-8 ATS when playing above .500 opponents. The Racers are a high-scoring team, but they've played an easy schedule. Memphis has the balanced scoring to do well against the Racers' defense.
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12-09-21 | Iowa v. Iowa State +5.5 | 53-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
This is a huge in-state rivalry game. Iowa State is competitive now thanks to T.J. Otzelberger. He's done a fantastic coaching job. Iowa State is 9-0 after being 2-22 last season before Otzeleberger took over. The Cyclones have passed every test so far this season, including beating Creighton, 64-58, on the road this past Saturday. That halted a 25-game Iowa State road losing streak. Iowa is good. No doubt. But the Hawkeyes aren't elite as Big Ten losses to Purdue and Illinois show. The Hawkeyes were outrebounded, 52-23, by the Illini. That's a potential red flag. |
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12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
It's never easy to be the NFL Thursday night road team especially in a non-conference matchup when you don't know your opponent. The Steelers not only find themselves in that role, but also off a huge Sunday victory against the Ravens. The Vikings, on the other hand, are seeking redemption after becoming the first team to lose to the Lions this season. It's no consolation for the Vikings that they outgained the Lions by nearly 50 yards. Minnesota had a number of key people out, or injured in that game. The Vikings' defense will get a huge boost with the expected return of linebackers Eric Kendricks, their best defender, and Anthony Barr. Both missed the Lions game. It's a plus if Dalvin Cook can play. But I don't see the Vikings needing him to cover this small spread. Alexander Mattison is one of the better backup running backs and Kirk Cousins is having a huge statistical season with a 25-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Steelers still are likely to be down their best cornerback with Joe Haden expected to miss a fourth consecutive game. The Steelers' ground attack has regressed. It's going to be rough on ancient Ben Roethlisberger to perform well behind a bad offensive line on a short week. |
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12-08-21 | Jazz v. Wolves +7 | Top | 136-104 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
The Timberwolves have shown major improvement this season going 7-1 from Nov. 17-Nov. 29. However, they are 0-3 in their last three games with road losses to the Wizards and Nets and then a bad home loss to the Hawks this past Monday. Minnesota is going to be up for this game. The Timberwolves aren't likely to get injured D'Angelo Russell back here, but Patrick Beverley is expected to play for the first time in six games. Russell and Beverley are Minnesota's two top point guards. Lack of ball movement hurt the Timberwolves in their loss to Atlanta. That should change with Beverley's return. Beverley also is a top-notch defender. He's one of the more unsung players in the NBA. The Timberwolves have the scorers to compete with Utah thanks to Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards. Utah is fat and happy on a four-game win streak. The Jazz haven't been great in this role lately going 2-5 ATS the past seven times as a favorite and covering just one of their past five road games. The Timberwolves are 6-2 ATS the last eight times meeting a foe with a winning record. |
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12-08-21 | Utah v. TCU -2 | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
I like TCU's current form. The Horned Frogs are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation and have cut down on their turnovers committing 10 or fewer during their last two games. TCU has held six of its seven opponents to fewer than 65 points. Utah isn't playing well. The Utes have failed to cover in their last three games as they continue to tinker with their rotation. They are averaging 68.6 points during their past five games. |
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12-07-21 | Celtics v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 102-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
I want the Lakers going for me in this revenge spot and catching Boston fat and happy. The Lakers have begun to play better winning four of their last seven games as LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook get more acquainted. The Celtics can't match that star power especially if Jaylen Brown has to miss a third straight game due to a hamstring strain. The Lakers have been idle since Friday when they suffered a frustrating loss to the Clippers, 119-115. They have been pointing to this matchup since losing, 130-108, on the road to the Celtics on Nov. 19. Boston is off a 145-117 waltz against the Damian Lillard-less Trail Blazers this past Saturday. The Celtics have been up-and-down under first year head coach Ime Udoka. |
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12-07-21 | Knicks -2.5 v. Spurs | 121-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Surprised the Knicks opened a road favorite against the Spurs? Don't be. Even though the Knicks are 1-4 in their last five games and have a losing record, the oddsmaker knows what he is doing. New York has gone against the Nuggets, Bulls, Nets, Hawks and Suns during its last five games. This is a step down in class and a stop-the-pain game for the Knicks. It's a good thing the Knicks are leaving New York after consecutive home losses. They are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 road contests. The Knicks catch the Spurs returning home having yet to host a game this month. The Spurs are in action for the third time in four days and playing without rest after a hard-fought 108-104 road loss to the Suns last night. New York, on the other hand, had been idle the previous two days. The Spurs were riding a season-best four-game win streak until losing to the Suns. So their mental approach may be down. Same perhaps with their focus level having not been home since late November. |
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12-06-21 | Grizzlies v. Heat -4.5 | 105-90 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
No Ja Morant, no problem for the Grizzlies. They are 4-0 since losing their star guard. I don't see that continuing, though, starting with this matchup. The Heat are 1-3 in their last four games. They were without superstar Jimmy Butler for all of their games. Butler is expected back from a tailbone injury for this game. That should make a huge difference. Worst case scenario is if Butler has to miss this game. Still, I would back the Heat even if Butler is out banking on Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson. Miami has played better at home going 6-3. This is the Grizzlies' fourth game in seven days - all at different venues. Morant isn't the only Memphis player out. Underrated Kyle Anderson also is out with a back injury. |
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12-06-21 | Towson v. Kent State -6 | 73-58 | Loss | -116 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
I rate Kent State as a dozen points better than Towson - and that's on a neutral floor. The Golden Flashes are much stronger than the Tigers both scoring-wise and defensively. Kent State ranks 17th in scoring defense and is 45th in field goal percentage. The Golden Flashes also are an excellent free throw shooting team making 79.3 percent. Kent State has been bolstered by the addition of Duquense transfer Sincere Carry. He leads the Golden Flashes in scoring at 15.8 points. Towson gives up nearly seven more points than Kent State and has played a weaker schedule. The Tigers rank 254th in shooting percentage, 306th in 3-point percentage and are a bad free throw shooting club at 69.5 percent. Kent State is a top-five Mid-American Conference team. Towson was picked to finish eighth out of 10 teams in the Colonial Athletic Association.
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12-05-21 | Washington Football Team v. Raiders -2.5 | Top | 17-15 | Loss | -107 | 100 h 57 m | Show |
The Raiders are a difficult team to figure out. But this is an extremely tough situational spot for Washington, off a narrow home win against the Seahawks this past Monday. Washington has to travel cross-country now on a short week. The Raiders, by contrast, are on extra rest having played last Thursday. Las Vegas got its offense back in gear picking up 509 total yards and scoring 36 points against the Cowboys during its Thanksgiving upset victory. A special teams checkmark goes to the Raiders, too. Daniel Carlson has been one of the better kickers in the league making 24 of 27 field goals, while Washington is unsettled at kicker. |
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12-05-21 | Cardinals -7.5 v. Bears | 33-22 | Win | 100 | 97 h 24 m | Show | |
It's not just the expected return of Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins that makes the Cardinals worth backing. It's also the disarray that is the Bears and their key defensive injuries. Khalil Mack is out for Chicago. Aikeem Hicks is questionable. So is Roquan Smith. He's been the Bears' best defensive player with nearly twice as many tackles as any other Bear. His sideline to sideline presence and pass rush threat would be highly missed by the Bears. Matt Nagy is on his way out. It probably already would have happened if word didn't leak out before the Bears were ready to make the move. The Bears are extremely poorly coached. They were fortunate to beat the winless Lions on Thanksgiving. The Cardinals are the fifth-leading scoring team in the NFL averaging 28.2 points despite Murray and Hopkins missing three games. Chicago averages 16.3 points. The Bears are last in passing. Their porous offensive line is going to have problems against sack masters Chandler Jones and Marcus Golden, who have combined for 18 sacks. |
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12-05-21 | Bucs v. Falcons +11.5 | 30-17 | Loss | -113 | 97 h 14 m | Show | |
The Buccaneers are overvalued here especially given their cluster injury problem in their secondary. That gives Matt Ryan a fighting chance being home on a fast track. It's huge for the Falcons that they have Cordarrelle Patterson back from injury. Patterson has had a breakout season. Always a kick return threat, Patterson has thrived both as a runner and receiver as the Facons' featured player. The Falcons were right with the Bucs in the first meeting trailing, 28-25, with less than 10 minutes before Tampa Bay broke the game open when Mike Edwards returned a pair of Ryan interceptions for touchdowns. This is a division rivalry, but the Falcons probably will be taking the matchup more seriously trying to salvage their season. The Buccaneers have a bigger challenge on deck when they host the Bills next week.
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12-04-21 | Clippers v. Kings +1.5 | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
The teams just met Wednesday in LA. The Kings won, 124-115. That put their record at 3-3 under interim coach Alvin Gentry, who replaced overmatched Luke Walton. The Kings are a better team under Gentry. They also have been idle since that Wednesday victory. The Clippers, however, will be playing for the sixth time in nine days. They are off a highly-satisfying, 119-115, tough win against the Lakers last night. The rested Kings could get back Harrison Barnes, who is having a career year averaging 19 points and 7.2 rebounds. This game sets up well for Sacramento with the situational aspects outweighing the Clippers' revenge spot. |
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12-04-21 | Georgia v. Alabama +6.5 | Top | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 39 h 24 m | Show |
It has been six years since Alabama last was an underdog. I understand why Georgia is favored here. But these teams are much closer than what the market perceives. The Crimson Tide, however, have faced the more difficult schedule. While the Bulldogs drew Vanderbilt, Missouri, South Carolina, Georgia Tech and Charleston Southern, Alabama had to play LSU, Mississippi and Texas A&M. Yes, Alabama had some close calls. Yet the Crimson Tide still lost only one game going 11-1. They know how to win and certainly are battle-tested. They also desperately need to win this game while Georgia doesn't. If the Crimson Tide loses their season is done. Georgia can take a loss and still would make the College Football Playoffs. I'm also attracted to getting this many points with the superior quarterback. Alabama gets that important check mark with Bryce Young. |
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12-04-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette +3 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 39 h 52 m | Show | |
UL Lafayette rolled past Appalachian State, 41-13, as 4-point 'dogs on Oct. 12. The Ragin' Cajuns have won 11 in a row. Appalachian State is good. But I don't view Lafayette as a home 'dog again to the Mountaineers. Maybe the oddsmaker thinks the Ragin' Cajuns are distracted by their head coach, Billy Napier, being named head man at Florida. But Napier will be coaching this game. He recruited this team and has 20 starters back. Lafayette has won the Sun Belt Conference West Division each of the last four years under Napier. The Cajuns didn't get to play in the Sun Belt title game last year, though, because the game was canceled due to COVID-19. It's been a mistake to lay points against Lafayette at home during Napier's four years there as the Cajuns have covered 73 percent of the 15 times they've been a home 'dog. |
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12-03-21 | Rutgers v. Illinois -8 | 51-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Rutgers has never won during its five all-time road games against Illinois. Don't expect that string to be broken here. Illinois has won nine straight home contests, including going 4-0 this season. All of the Illini's home wins have come by at least nine points, including an impressive 10-point victory against Notre Dame in their last game this past Monday. The Illini showed a lot of team cohesion in that victory. I don't believe Rutgers can stay within single digits of Illinois. The Scarlet Knights have a tough matchup dealing with Illini center Kofi Cockburn, who is in the argument for best player in the nation. |
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12-02-21 | Pistons +12 v. Suns | 103-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Phoenix is having a great year. But this is a flat spot for the Suns sandwiched around games against Golden State. The Suns returned home from a four-game road trip and defeated the Warriors this past Tuesday. Following this game, the Suns travel to Golden State for a rematch against the Warriors on Friday. That's the game they are pointing to. The Suns won't have their leading scorer, Devin Booker. He suffered a hamstring injury and will be out several games. The Pistons have lost seven in a row. They are a young team and they play hard. Detroit has covered four of its last six. The Pistons often are undervalued. That's the case here given that the Suns will be minus Booker and are in a letdown/lookahead spot. |
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12-02-21 | Portland State v. Idaho State -2 | Top | 63-55 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
A battle of two mediocre Big Sky Conference teams isn't going to excite too many people. I rate Idaho State the better team plus the Bengals are home. So I find value in backing Idaho State at this short number. That makes this game worthwhile, at least, for me. Idaho State was picked to finish sixth in the Big Sky. Portland State was chosen to finish seven in conference by the coaches and eighth by the media. This helps reinforce my belief that Idaho State is the superior team. The Bengals went 8-6 in the Big Sky last season. Portland State went 6-8. Idaho State won the lone matchup last season beating the Vikings, 64-57, on the road. |
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12-01-21 | Mavs -2.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 139-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
Look for the Mavericks to bounce back against the Pelicans, a team they beat at home, 108-92, as 9-point favorites on Nov. 8. That was the sixth time in the last eight meetings Dallas has covered against New Orleans. The Mavericks are 1-5, though, in their last six games and off a 114-96 home loss to the Cavaliers two nights ago. The Cavaliers are improved and Dallas had open looks in that game. The Mavericks just couldn't hit their shots. The Pelicans rank 26th in defensive field goal percentage and 27th in 3-point defense. I see the Mavericks hitting their shots in this one. They catch the Pelicans returning home following a successful 2-1 West Coast trip. Both of those wins were against the Clippers. The Pelicans seem to have the Clippers' number. But this isn't a good spot for New Orleans. The Pelicans last were home on Nov. 24. So their focus could be off. They remain without Zion Williamson. |
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11-30-21 | Lakers -4 v. Kings | Top | 117-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Just five days ago the teams met. The Kings prevailed in three overtimes, 141-137. Now the Lakers have rapid revenge. LA won't play again for the next two days following this game and will be at home when their schedule picks up. This should mean big minutes here for Laker superstars LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook since there's no reason to hold back. LA is the healthier team. The Kings could be minus rotation players Richaun Holmes, Harrison Barnes and Maurice Harkless. All three are questionable. The Kings have failed to cover seven of the past eight times they've been home 'dogs. The Lakers' sense of urgency has picked up after a slow start.
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11-30-21 | Detroit v. Northeastern -5 | Top | 56-66 | Win | 100 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
I'm surprised at this low point spread. Detroit is 0-5 and one of the worst defensive teams in the country. Northeastern gives up 19 fewer points per game than Detroit. The Huskies are 3-4. This is only their second home game of the season. Detroit is their easiest opponent so far. The Titans lost, 98-84, to Hofstra in their last game this past Saturday. The Titans shot 51 percent from the floor and still lost by 14! That tells you how bad Detroit is. I would feel confident laying double-digits with Northeastern against this foe. So this is a bargain price. |
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11-30-21 | Davidson v. Charlotte +5 | 75-58 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 58 m | Show | |
Davidson is a big scoring team. But I'm not sold that the Wildcats should be road favorites here against an in-state rival that has the capability to frustrate them. This is Davidson's first true road game. The Wildcats win with offense. Their defense isn't that good. Charlotte plays at a slow pace and doesn't commit many turnovers. That's going to limit Davidson's opportunities. |
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11-29-21 | Pelicans v. Clippers -6.5 | 123-104 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
The Clippers have short revenge for a 94-81 road loss suffered to the Pelicans 10 days ago. The Clippers also have motivation after playing poorly on Sunday at home in a 105-90 home loss to the Warriors. LA is usually very good in these bounce back situations. The Clippers played during the day on Sunday so there is less of a fatigue factor. They step down in class drawing the Pelicans. New Orleans still won't have Zion Williamson and holds a worse fatigue factor in action for the fourth time in six days. New Orleans is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road contests. The Clippers are 17-6 ATS the past 23 times following a loss of more than 10 points. LA has the long range shooters to take advantage of the Pelicans' 27th-ranked 3-point defense. The Clippers also won't be seeing the nightmare of Stephen Curry hitting from all over the court. New Orleans ranks 27th in scoring. |
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11-29-21 | Notre Dame v. Illinois -4 | 72-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
I didn't see enough out of Notre Dame in the Maui Invitational, which was held in Las Vegas this year, to believe the Irish can keep within this point spread at Illinois. The Irish went 1-2 in the tournament beating Chaminade, but losing to St. Mary's and Texas A&M. Notre Dame had trouble with the Aggies' full court pressure in the second half. The Irish have only broken the 70-point barrier once in five games this season. Illinois is getting outstanding play from its superstar 7-foot center Kofi Cockburn and from Alfonso Plummer. They'll be too much for Notre Dame. |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks +1 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 21 m | Show |
In Russ We Trust. That's the way I feel about this Monday night game with Seattle's season and future on the line. Russell Wilson versus Taylor Heinicke is a huge mismatch. Wilson has had time to get the rust off following his absence from a finger injury. He has two of the three best wideouts on the field and is facing a Washington defense that is down pass rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat. Heinicke is playing behind a banged-up offensive line. The Seahawks' defense has gotten better, allowing an average of 15 points per game during their last four games. The Seahawks have proven themselves in prime time. They are 11-3 during their last 14 Monday night games. The stage is too big for Washington. |
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11-28-21 | Browns +3.5 v. Ravens | 10-16 | Loss | -101 | 93 h 31 m | Show | |
The Ravens don't cover as favorites. Baltimore has failed to cover seven of the past eight times as chalk. The Ravens have squeaked out five victories this season by an average winning margin of three points. So I'm happy to take points with Cleveland in this division matchup. Lamar Jackson is the big star. But I give the Browns a huge checkmark in the trenches. They lead the AFC with 29 sacks. Myles Garrett is No. 1 in the NFL with 13 sacks. The Browns have one of the best offensive lines in football. The Ravens are without left tackle Ronnie Stanley, their best offensive lineman, and they have nothing but garbage at running back with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards both out for the season. If you discount their performance against the Patriots two weeks ago, the Browns have yielded an average of just 13.7 points in their last four games. Nick Chubb gives the Browns the best running back. Kareem Hunt is expected to play after being on IR with a calf injury. This outstanding 1-2 punch - maybe the best in the league - takes the pressure off Baker Mayfield. |
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11-28-21 | Calgary +3 v. Saskatchewan | 30-33 | Push | 0 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
Every point matters in this playoff matchup. So I'm going with the underdog Stampeders, who have won and covered their last three. Calgary also defeated Saskatchewan two of three during the regular season with all of the games being close. The Stampeders held the Roughriders to an average of 18.6 points in those three games. The Stampeders are 23-8 the past 31 times as a road 'dog. They've covered their last four games going 5-2 in away games this season. Calgary also has covered in five of its last six visits to Saskatchewan. Calgary QB Bo Levi Mitchell has found a welcomed target with Reggie Begelton returning to Calgary from the NFL. He caught seven passes for 119 yards in his return two weeks ago. I'm counting on Mitchell's veteran savvy and Calgary's elite defense. The Stampeders allowed the second-fewest TD's in the CFL while surrendering only 18.8 points a game. Tre Roberson gives the Stampeders an elite cornerback. The Roughriders have a strong defensive front, but permit a league-worst 273.6 passing yards per game. Opponents scored 31 TD's against the Roughriders, which tied for the most in the league. |
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11-28-21 | Titans v. Patriots -5.5 | Top | 13-36 | Win | 100 | 146 h 37 m | Show |
The Patriots are playing their best ball winning five in a row. New England's average winning margin in these games is by 25 points. The Patriots' defense has been mind-boggling, surrendering only one touchdown during their opponent's past 31 possessions. The Titans, on the other hand, are in trouble despite their impressive 8-3 record. They are averaging just 79 yards on the ground since Derrick Henry was injured three games ago. Their passing attack isn't strong, or deep enough, to compensate with Julio Jones out and A.J. Brown banged-up. Tennessee's offensive is at less than full strength. Ryan Tannehill has been sacked 31 times. The Titans had a league-high 20 players on injured reserve last week and are missing several key defensive players, including linebacker Bud Dupree. Mac Jones is doing the job for the Patriots with his poise and accuracy helped by an efficient ground attack, an offensive line that is playing well and excellent coaching. The Patriots are on extra rest, too, having played last Thursday. Bill Belichick is a master game-planner. So expect the Patriots to take full advantage of their momentum, Tennessee's problems and the situation. |
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11-28-21 | Steelers +4.5 v. Bengals | 10-41 | Loss | -110 | 85 h 20 m | Show | |
Yes, the Bengals are improved. They are not improved enough, however, to be trusted to cover margins in division matchups like this one. Prior to beating the sinking Raiders last week, the Bengals had lost straight-up to the Jets and to the Browns by 25 points. The Steelers have covered 72 percent of the time they've been 'dogs during the past 26 instances. Cincinnati defeated Pittsburgh back in Week 3. It was just the second time in the last 13 meetings the Bengals beat the Steelers. Cincinnati hasn't swept Pittsburgh since 2009. Pittsburgh's defense looked bad against the Chargers last Sunday. Keep in mind, the Steelers were minus T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Joe Haden in that game. All three are expected back this week. Watt, in particular, makes a huge difference. Fitzpatrick could be their second-best defender next to Watt and Haden is their top cornerback. Watt missed the first game against the Bengals. Ben Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh's offensive line have been playing better. Roethlisberger has a 104.3 QB rating the past five games, while throwing nine TD passes and no interceptions during this span. |
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11-27-21 | Notre Dame -19 v. Stanford | 45-14 | Win | 100 | 99 h 27 m | Show | |
Stanford is in free fall losing and failing to cover its last six games. The Cardinal has lost their last three games by an average of 32 points to Utah, Oregon State and California. Notre Dame is better than those teams. The Irish's ground game has picked up as their offensive has gotten better. Notre Dame not only will have huge edges at the skill positions, but also in the trenches. Stanford ranks 126th in rushing and 127th in stopping the run. A key for the Irish is motivation. They are making the long trip West against what has become an extremely weak opponent. Notre Dame, though, still is in the playoff hunt. So style points matter. That means the Irish will be primed for a blowout. Notre Dame has covered its past six road games and is 7-2 ATS the last nine times as a road favorite. Stanford is 1-7 ATS in its past eight home contests. |
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11-27-21 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse +13 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
Syracuse is a very live underdog here especially given the circumstances. The Orange need a win to become bowl eligible. This is a very big deal to them since they've only been to one bowl game since 2013. Pittsburgh would like to win just from a rivalry standpoint, but the Panthers' incentive isn't nearly as great as Syracuse's. That's because the Panthers already have clinched the ACC Coastal Division and will be playing in the ACC title game next week regardless of this outcome. Pittsburgh probably doesn't want to show too much here and may even rest some starters during the game not wanting to risk injury. The Orange is 3-3 at home with two of those defeats coming by just a field goal. Syracuse has a top runner, Sean Tucker, who ranks No. 3 in the country in rushing. The Panthers' weakness is pass defense. So the Orange should be able to balance their attack. The Orange have the defensive ability to bother Kenny Pickett with 36 sacks and 78 tackles for lost yards. The Orange also have the No. 3 pass defense in the ACC. |
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11-27-21 | Texas A&M -6.5 v. LSU | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 56 m | Show | |
Injuries, inconsistency and lack of offense have doomed LSU this season. Until beating UL Monroe, a lower-tier Sun Belt Conference team, last week the Tigers were 1-5 in their last six games. LSU is averaging only 14.6 points in its last three SEC games. The Tigers' weak offense really misses star wide receiver Kayshon Boutte. Don't look for LSU to get well against stingy Texas A&M in departing coach Ed Orgeron's final home game. The Aggies are No. 2 in scoring defense holding foes to 14.9 points per game. Only 15 teams give up fewer yards per game than Texas A&M. The Aggies put up 41 points on Alabama. So their offense is capable. They'll do enough to cover this spread against a disinterested Tigers team playing the string out while waiting for a new coach. |
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11-26-21 | Suns -3 v. Knicks | Top | 118-97 | Win | 100 | 18 h 25 m | Show |
This is my NBA Game of the Month. Being a small market team on the West Coast isn't great for attracting national attention. Maybe that's why Chris Paul and his Suns teammates play well in their annual visit to Madison Square Garden. The Suns have beaten the Knicks in New York three straight times with their winning margin being by an average of 16.3 points. Going back to their last 11 times visiting the media center of the U.S., the Suns are 9-2 ATS. Phoenix is red-hot, winners of 14 in a row. The Suns are doing it with a total team effort. They have one of the deepest rosters in the league. Paul is healthy and putting up excellent numbers. Devin Booker is hot. Deandre Ayton is pulling down double-digit rebounds. When all this is happening, the Suns can take their place among the best teams in the NBA. The Knicks are struggling to achieve consistency. They are 3-4 in their last seven games. New York defeated the Lakers, 106-100, this past Tuesday. The Lakers were missing LeBron James. New York is 0-6 ATS the last six times following a victory. |
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11-25-21 | Bills -4 v. Saints | Top | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 77 h 52 m | Show |
Timing is very bad for the Saints here. This is a short week for the Saints. They've been without their best offensive players - Alvin Karmara, Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas and tackles Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk. These injuries have turned the Saints into a punchless, weapon-less offense operated by Trevor Siemian, one of the more ineffective backup quarterbacks in the league. The result is New Orleans is on a three-game losing streak. That hasn't happened to the Saints since the first three games of the 2016 season. New Orleans draws a much more well-rounded - and angry Bills team that just got destroyed, 41-15, at home by the Colts this past Sunday. The Bills have followed up their previous three losses with blowout victories winning those next games by an average of 26 points. Buffalo ranks No. 2 in scoring at 29.5 points and is fifth in total yards. The Saints can't keep up with that. Their offense is just a shell of its former self. New Orleans' defensive strength is its run defense, although you couldn't tell by watching the Saints get trampled by the Eagles this past Sunday. The Bills, though, are a passing team. The Saints are giving up 29.2 points per game during their last four games. That's right on the number of what the Bills average per game. |
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11-23-21 | Heat -10 v. Pistons | Top | 100-92 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
The rebuilding Pistons aren't going to win many games this season. They had a great opportunity to beat the Lakers at home this past Sunday, but blew a 17-point lead to drop to 4-12. But that wasn't the major takeaway. Detroit's second-year center Isaiah Stewart tried to attack LeBron James after James caused Stewart to suffer a facial cut that required eight stitches. The benches cleared and Stewart had to be held back numerous times attempting to fight James. It was an emotional game for the Pistons. I doubt they can bounce back and keep this one close against a much superior and what should be motivated Heat squad. Stewart drew a two-game suspension for his actions. The Pistons also are short-handed in the backcourt with Killian Hayes out another two games due to a thumb injury. There's a fatigue factor working against Detroit, too. This marks the Pistons' seventh game in 12 days. The Heat opened their four-game road trip in bad fashion losing to the Wizards, 103-100, this past Saturday. Miami blew a 10-point lead during the final five minutes. The loss halted a four-game Miami win streak. So the Heat shouldn't lack incentive. They are 8-2 ATS the past 10 times when facing an opponent with a winning percentage below .400. The Pistons are 2-10 ATS the last 12 times they've met an above .500 foe. Miami's previous three victories have been by 15, 15 and 13 points. |
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11-22-21 | Grizzlies +10.5 v. Jazz | Top | 119-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
The Grizzlies certainly aren't going to lack motivation for this matchup. Not only are the Grizzlies off a highly-embarrassing,138-95, road loss to the Timberwolves two days ago that Memphis coach Taylor Jenkins called unacceptable, but they have playoff revenge. Utah eliminated Memphis in five games during the first round of the playoffs last season. Historically the Grizzlies have been strong in this type of situation going 19-7 ATS (73 percent) following a loss of more than 10 points. The Jazz, on the other hand, are fat and happy with three straight wins and covers. Those victories came against the banged-up 76ers, who were missing Joel Embiid, the Raptors, who were minus their leading scorer, OG Anunoby, and the Kings in their final game before they fired Luke Walton. Before losing to the Timberwolves, the Grizzlies had rolled past the Rockets by 34 points and defeated the Clippers by 12 points. Look for the Grizzlies to get back on track with a competitive performance here. |
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11-21-21 | Dolphins -3 v. Jets | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 121 h 3 m | Show |
Despite a 3-7 record, the Dolphins have life after their dominating victory against the Ravens last Thursday. The Dolphins' next four games are against the Jets, Panthers, Giants and Jets again. Those are all winnable games, which would put Miami at 7-7. The Dolphins should get this one against the Jets, who have serious quarterback issues and a thin defense that has collapsed because of injuries. Sometimes it's a mistake to overreact to one game. But beating the Ravens was a huge confidence-builder for the Dolphins. This was a dominant 22-10 victory, too. It was the second-fewest points Baltimore scored with Lamar Jackson as its starting QB. The Ravens could manage only 94 yards on the ground, which was their second-lowest rushing output in four years. The Dolphins are a heavy blitzing team and the Jets have a well-below average offensive line to protect washed-up Joe Flacco, who was named the starting QB this week. The Jets have lost nearly all of their above average defensive talent. The result is New York is giving up an average of 43.7 points in its last four games. The Jets rank last defensively in points and yards. They are second-to-last in pass defense. Tua Tagovailoa is an improving QB, who can take advantage. This is a cheap price to back the superior, motivated team against what's turned into another Jets disaster. |
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11-21-21 | Texans +10.5 v. Titans | 22-13 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
It's not who you play in the NFL it's when you play them. That applies in this case. The Texans have lost eight in a row. Bill O'Brien really buried this franchise before departing the Houston scene. He should never be allowed to set foot on Texas soil again. The Texans are at expansion level. But the Texans will prove tough here. After winning six in a row - the last five against playoff teams - the Titans are in a monster letdown spot. They have the Patriots on deck. Tennessee no longer has an explosive offense. Derrick Henry and Julio Jones are both out. It's not a coincidence the Titans have had their two worst rushing games of the season since losing Henry to a broken right foot. Houston has the running advantage with David Johnson, Phillip Lindsay, Rex Burkhead and Tyrod Taylor, one of the better running QB's in the league, compared to the Titans' Adrian Peterson and D'Onta Foreman. The Texans' offensive line is terrible. But injuries have greatly reduced the effectiveness of Tennessee's offensive line. Ryan Tannehill has been sacked 29 times. That's tied with rookie Justin Fields for being the most sacked QB in the NFL. Taylor was extremely rusty against the Dolphins in his first start after being out for six weeks with a hamstring injury. Houston had its bye last week. Expect Taylor, an 11-year veteran with a history of not turning the ball over, to be much sharper. The Texans are plus eight in point differential during the 10 quarters Taylor has played. This is a game Houston coach David Culley has been pointing to. He's a native of Tennessee and has an extensive college coaching record inside the state of Tennessee. The Texans come in rested and motivated. The Titans lack the firepower to blow an opponent out now especially when in a flat spot. |
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11-21-21 | 49ers v. Jaguars +6.5 | 30-10 | Loss | -102 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
The 49ers are off one of the most impressive victories of the season. They beat the Rams, 31-10, at home this past Monday night. But the 49ers are a below .500 team. They have a banged-up secondary, an overrated coach and a mediocre quarterback. They just aren't that good. It's a horrible spot for them traveling cross-country on a short week while basking in the glow of a huge upset division victory. It's also an early start time for San Francisco. Jacksonville is below-the-radar. The Jaguars' defense has gotten better. They've surrendered an average of 20 points in their past four games. The Jaguars stunned the Bills at home two weeks ago and hung tough staying within one score of the Colts on the road this past week. The 49ers are run-oriented. They use the run to set up Jimmy Garoppolo. The Jaguars' strength is their 12th-ranked run defense. Garoppolo and the 49ers can and should not be trusted in this spot against this improved foe that is 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS in its last four games.
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11-20-21 | Pelicans v. Pacers -7 | 94-111 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
The Pacers are in stop-the-pain mode, losers of three in a row. They draw the 3-14 Pelicans at home. New Orleans is off a rare win, defeating the visiting Clippers, 94-81, last night. The Pelicans aren't good and they are in a letdown situation. New Orleans won't be respectable until Zion Williamson returns. Of their last eight losses, seven have been by eight or more points. The Pacers nearly pulled out a road win against Charlotte last night after trailing by 25 points in the third quarter, but fell three points short. Indiana received a season-high 78 points from its bench. None of the Pacers logged more than 23 minutes last night, while three Pelicans played major minutes against the Clippers. Indiana holds a huge talent edge with Malcolm Brodgon, Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner and Caris LeVert. The Pacers' starters will be highly motivated to play well after their poor performance last night. |
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11-20-21 | Minnesota -7 v. Indiana | Top | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
Cheap price to lay with Minnesota against an Indiana team that has lost six in a row. The Hooisers hit rock bottom last week falling, 38-3, to Rutgers. Injuries have taken away the Hooisers' explosiveness. They are down to third-string QB freshman Donaven McCulley. Discounting a 35-point performance against Maryland, Indiana is averaging a meager 6.4 points in its last five games. The Hooisers have been held to seven or fewer points in four of their past six games. Minnesota won't be taking the Hooisers lightly being a game behind Iowa and Wisconsin in the Big Ten West Division. The Gophers are 3-1 SU and ATS on the road with their lone away defeat coming to Iowa last week by five points. The Gophers outgained the Hawkeyes and had 11 more first downs. Indiana ranks 106th in scoring defense giving up an average of 32 points. Given their lack of firepower and a defense that has worn down allowing 39.7 points in its last four games it's not difficult to see the Gophers covering a touchdown spread. |
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11-20-21 | Appalachian State v. Troy +10 | 45-7 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 48 m | Show | |
Appalachian State is the class of the East Division of the Sun Belt Conference. Troy is a .500 team. But the Trojans have outscored their opponents by 26 points and this is their biggest game of the season. It is huge revenge for them after the Mountaineers defeated them by 37 points last season. That was the most lopsided loss Troy had last year. The Trojans have picked up their scoring averaging 27.6 points in their last five games. The Trojans rank 17th in defensive total yards and they have 36 sacks. The most points they've surrendered all season is 35. Appalachian State is down a tick at quarterback from previous seasons. Mountaineers QB Chase Brice has been picked off eight times. The Trojans have 13 takeaways, 11th-most in the country. |
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11-20-21 | Iowa State v. Oklahoma -3 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show | |
Oklahoma has lost just once in November during the last seven years. That lone defeat occurred against Baylor last Saturday. I'm expecting the Sooners to bounce back in a big way at home against Iowa State, which is 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four road contests. The Sooners are in must-win mode if they hope to have any chance of making the College Football Playoffs. The 9-1 Sooners also need a victory to realistically keep alive their hopes of capturing a seventh straight Big 12 title. Iowa State is enduring a disappointing season. The Cyclones are 6-4 and off a 41-38 loss to Texas Tech as a 13-point road favorite.
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11-19-21 | San Diego State -10.5 v. UNLV | Top | 28-20 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 13 m | Show |
These two teams are far apart from what this point spread may indicate. UNLV has a horrible defense and can't pass the ball. The Rebels are highly reliant on running back Charles Williams. The Aztecs have the fourth-best run defense in the country. The Aztecs are in must-win mode, too, needing to win this game and their regular-season finale to capture the West Division of the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State buried UNLV, 34-6, last season. The Aztecs won't be taking the Rebels lightly, however. That's because UNLV has won two in a row after opening the season with eight straight losses. Note, though, the Rebels' victories are against New Mexico and Hawaii. The combined record of those two teams is 2-10. Before beating New Mexico and Hawaii, UNLV lost, 51-20, to Nevada. San Diego State defeated Nevada, 23-21, last week. The Rebels have permitted at least 35 points in five of their games. They rank 105th in scoring defense. San Diego State has one of the best running backs in the conference, Greg Bell, and upgraded at quarterback with the switch to Lucas Johnson four games ago. Punter Matt Araiza is a huge weapon for the Aztecs. He's on pace to set the single-season college mark averaging 52.2 yards per punt. UNLV ranks 119th in total yards and 113th in scoring. The Rebels may not reach 10 points considering they aren't likely to ever have good field position. The Aztecs have held six of their 10 foes to 14 or fewer points. |
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11-19-21 | Ottawa +14 v. Montreal | 19-18 | Win | 100 | 49 h 20 m | Show | |
This is a big number for Montreal to lay. The Alouettes are 7-6. They are a playoff team, but not some dominant power. The oddsmaker seems to believe the Alouettes will play hard against a bad Ottawa team because of home field incentive. The Alouettes would host Hamilton in the first round of the playoffs if the Tiger-Cats lose to Saskatchewan on Saturday provided Montreal defeats Ottawa. Hamilton is around a TD favorite against Saskatchewan. What can be said for sure is Montreal and Hamilton are meeting next week in a playoff game. So this game is pretty much meaningless. The Alouettes aren't going to risk an injury just to have their starters play a full game. If Montreal were to jump out to a big lead, the backdoor would be left wide open as the Alouettes likely are going to play reserves a lot here. Ottawa had a bye last week. So the Redblacks will be refreshed and loose this being their final game of the season. Ottawa played Toronto tough in its last game losing, 23-20, but covering as a 10 1/2-point 'dog. Montreal has failed to cover eight of the last 11 times it has been favored. The Alouettes also are 0-6 ATS the past six times as home chalk. Ottawa has covered the past eight times when playing in Montreal. |
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11-18-21 | Raptors +9.5 v. Jazz | 103-119 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Toronto is well coached under Nick Nurse and getting healthy with Pascal Siakam rounding into shape. That's why it's difficult for opponents to blow the Raptors out. Only twice in their last 14 games have the Raptors lost by more than eight points. The Raptors should be rested and well motivated here having lost their last two games and having had two full days off. Utah, on the other hand, is coming off a 120-86 home blowout of the undermanned 76ers from two days ago. Then there's the history between these two teams. Toronto has owned Utah point spread-wise covering nine of the past 10. The Raptors are a perfect 8-0 ATS during their last eight visits to Salt Lake City. |
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11-18-21 | Texas-Arlington +11 v. North Texas | 36-64 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
A blowout loss to Oklahoma State in its opener and an overtime loss to Abilene Christian makes Texas Arlington underpriced in this matchup. The Mavericks committed 28 turnovers against Abilene Christian. I'm confident that mess will be cleaned up enough for them to hang against North Texas. The Mean Green is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games going back to last season. They couldn't cover as a short favorite at home three days in a loss to Buffalo. I just believe the line is too high for this matchup.
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11-18-21 | Coastal Carolina +2.5 v. NC-Wilmington | 53-65 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Power ratings-wise I have Coastal Carolina as the better team. So I'll back them as underdogs. Coastal Carolina opened with an easy 101-73 win over Ferrum. That was nine days ago. The Chanticleers are anxious to play again and have had ample rest and game preparation time. UNC Wilmington failed to cover in its two games versus Division I schools losing to Illinois State and to Pittsburgh two days ago. The Seahawks are 0-7 ATS in lined games going back to last season. They also are 3-8 ATS as home chalk.
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11-17-21 | Cal-Riverside +2 v. San Diego | 62-74 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
UC Riverside is underrated and dangerous. Riverside already has an upset road victory against Arizona State. The Highlanders are 6-2-1 ATS as a road 'dog. If you go by KenPom rankings, Riverside is better than San Diego. I have the Highlanders power rated above the Toreros, too. Matchup-wise, the Highlanders' strength is hitting their 3-point shots and defending from beyond the arc. San Diego's weakness is defending the 3-pointer. So I'm going to take the better team in an underdog role. |
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11-17-21 | Mavs +8.5 v. Suns | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
The Suns return home following a three-game, four-day road trip that concluded Monday night in Minnesota. The Suns are fat and happy, winners of nine in a row. Feeding into the Suns' relaxed mind is knowing they don't have to worry about Luka Doncic. He's out with knee and ankle sprains. This sets up a classic underdog spot for Dallas. The Mavericks are playing well, too, winning five of their last six. The Mavericks not only will be motivated by triple revenge, but the challenge of their first game minus their superstar guard. I expect the rest of the Dallas' players to step up. Kristaps Porzingis has played well since returning to the lineup scoring 61 points in his last two games. Jalen Brunson has been an unsung star coming off the bench. He'll get more minutes now with Doncic out. The Suns' last two games were against bottom feeders Houston and Minnesota. Phoenix ranks last in strength of schedule. This is the Suns' toughest opponent during their last 12 games. |
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11-15-21 | San Jose State +20.5 v. Stanford | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show | |
Former Nebraska coach Tim Miles had a successful San Jose State debut as the Spartans opened its season with a 78-76 upset win at home against Cal State Fullerton. The Spartans were six-point underdogs. The Spartans built a 16-point lead and never trailed in that game. The Spartans are better than perceived, while Stanford isn't as good as some people think at least during this early going. The Cardinal lost, 88-72, on the road to Santa Clara this past Friday. Through two games, Stanford ranks 311th in defensive two-point field goal percentage. The Cardinal rank 242nd in turnover ratio, too. Right now Stanford is mainly relying on a pair of freshmen. The Cardinal have failed to cover the past five times when laying points. |
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11-15-21 | Oregon State v. Tulsa +2.5 | 58-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
I think the oddsmaker is putting too much emphasis on how Oregon State finished last season. The Beavers shocked a lot of people by winning the Pac-12 Conference Tournament and then reaching the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. But it's not so easy to recapture that magic so early in the season. The Beavers lost Ethan Thompson and Zach Reichle from that team. They've begun this season 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS with a 60-50 road loss to Iowa State in their last game. Now Oregon State is laying points at Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane are 21-6 the past 27 times as a home 'dog. Tulsa has a number of key transfers, including Jeriah Horne. He played well at Colorado last season and has looked good for Tulsa so far this season. The Golden Hurricane were limited to just 23 games last season and had a disappointing year. They won't lack motivation here and have the talent to win straight-up. Oregon State is trying to find the right combinations so the Beavers are far from peak form. This is what Oregon State coach Wayne Tinkle said, ''Expectations can be a tricky thing for team that overperform in March.'' |
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11-15-21 | Magic +10.5 v. Hawks | 111-129 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
There's not much to say in defense of Orlando. The Magic are the youngest team in the league, rank second to last in scoring and have the worst record in the Eastern Conference. So when you're playing on the Magic, like I am here, it's almost always a fade against the opponent. That's the case with the Hawks, who should not be favored by this many points. Atlanta opened its homestand beating the Bucks, 120-100, on Sunday. That halted a six-game Hawks losing streak. Not to take away from that Atlanta win, but the Bucks were short-handed minus Kris Middleton. Before that victory, Atlanta had failed to cover in any of its losses during its six-game losing skid with five of those defeats occurring by at least nine points. The Hawks simply aren't that strong of a team to just blow out an opponent when the situation isn't right. The spot isn't right here for Atlanta. This marks the Hawks' eight game in 13 days and second in two days. Atlanta is 0-3 SU and ATS when playing without rest this season, losing those games by an average of 13.6 points. Orlando, on the other hand, will be playing for just the third time in eight days. The Magic will be battle tested. Their last five games have been against the Wizards, Nets, Jazz - who they beat by seven points - Spurs and Celtics. |
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11-15-21 | Bowling Green +16.5 v. Ohio State | 58-89 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Ohio State is 2-0 but hasn't come close to covering, needing a basket at the end by Zed Key to nip Akron and only beating Niagara by 10 as a 19 1/2-point favorite. The Buckeyes led Niagara by only one point at halftime. The oddsmaker has downgraded Bowling Green because the Falcons were upset by Western Carolina. But Bowling Green is one of the better teams in the MAC. That loss has the Falcons underrated, while Ohio State is overrated because of its big name.
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