Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-30-21 | Capitals v. Panthers -133 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Florida Panthers over the Washington Capitals. The Panthers had a home winning streak that stretched from the beginning of the season until last Saturday (11 games). And the team that broke the streak? None-other than the expansion Seattle Kraken, who beat Florida here by a 4-1 margin. The Panthers look to begin a new streak tonight but it won't be easy against a Caps team that has won nine of its last 11. But the Caps are still without forwards Nicklas Backstrom (hip), T.J. Oshie (foot), and Anthony Mantha (shoulder) so the mountain they have to climb tonight is probably higher than Florida's. Plus, this is a revenge game for the Panthers as they were one of the victims in the Caps' latest run, falling in DC back on November 26, 4-3. And home ice would seem to be important in this series as the host team has won four of the last five meetings between these two. The Panthers are also 4-0 in their last four games following a home loss of three or more goals, and they're an incredible 23-4 in their last 27 games here at FLA Live arena. Take Florida. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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11-29-21 | Montana v. Oregon -12.5 | Top | 47-87 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Montana. Dana Altman's men were blitzed by #12-ranked Houston last week, 78-49, in the Maui Invitational, played in Las Vegas. The Cougars shot 51.7% from the floor, and that was the 3rd straight Division 1 opponent which has shot better than 50% vs. the Ducks. And, with its game against Division 2 Chaminade excepted, the Ducks have allowed their last three Division 1 foes to exceed the 50% shooting mark. The silver lining -- if there is one -- is that all of those games were away from home. At the Matthew Knight Arena, the Ducks have played much better, as they're 2-0 SU, with a +6.00 point spread differential (compared to a -19.62 point spread differential away from home). Likewise, tonight's opponent, Montana, has played much better this season at home, in the friendly confines of Dahlberg Arena, than outside Missoula. Indeed, we played on Montana at home this past Friday, and got the $$$ when they smashed Southern Miss, 74-62. The Grizzlies are now 4-0 SU, and 3-0 ATS at home this season, and have covered the spread by 5.83 ppg. But away from home, they are 0-2 ATS, and have a negative point spread differential of -17.25. Going back further, we find that the Grizzlies are 12-23 ATS their last 35 away from Dahlberg Arena, including 2-10 ATS as an underdog of 7+ points. Meanwhile, the Ducks are 97-9 SU and 63-34 ATS at home, including a perfect 5-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite off a loss, in non-conference games, and also 56-4 SU and 44-16 ATS when priced from -4 to -15 points. Take Oregon to blow out Montana. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-28-21 | Rams -1 v. Packers | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -116 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over the Green Bay Packers. We played against Green Bay last week, and took Minnesota as a home dog, and were rewarded with an upset win. And we'll once again go against Aaron Rodgers & Co. this afternoon -- primarily because the Rams are off back to back losses. Los Angeles comes into this game off an upset defeat last week at San Francisco, and they lost to the Titans two games back. And the Rams will also be playing this game with revenge from a loss to Green Bay in last year's playoffs. This season, teams playing with revenge from a playoff defeat have gone 6-1 ATS. And over the last 42 years, teams playing with Playoff revenge have cashed 59% if they were matched up against a non-division foe, and were off a road loss in their previous game. Even better: if our revenger also lost two games back, then our 59% stat zooms to 13-1 ATS since 1980. The Rams have been consistently very strong off losses under head coach Sean McVay. Since his hiring in 2017, the Rams are 16-7 SU and 14-8-1 ATS off a straight-up loss, including 9-1 ATS when not laying 3 or more points, 9-3 ATS on the road, and 3-1-1 ATS off back to back losses. Take the Rams. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-28-21 | UMKC v. Arkansas State -2.5 | Top | 55-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas State Red Wolves minus the points over Kansas City. This game is being played as part of CollegeInsider.com's Eracism Invitational. It will be the 7th meeting between the two schools, and the Wolves lead the series 6-0. In its last game, Arkansas State was upset, 75-51, by Morehead State. But off that upset defeat, we'll take the Red Wolves to bounce back this afternoon. Arkansas State is 39-23-1 ATS off a loss by more than 15 points, including 7-0 ATS its last seven. And the Red Wolves also fall into 73-28 and 57-19 ATS systems of mine, based on their game vs. Morehead State. Lay the points with the Red Wolves. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-28-21 | Titans +7.5 v. Patriots | Top | 13-36 | Loss | -118 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over New England. The Titans' offense has struggled the last two weeks without Derrick Henry in the fold, as they had two of their three lowest offensive outputs of the season, and failed to cover vs. New Orleans and Houston (and lost to Houston outright, as a 10.5-point favorite). Meanwhile, the Patriots have been the hottest team in football, with five straight wins and covers, to move to 7-4 on the season. Unfortunately for Bill Belichick's men, NFL teams off 5 SU/ATS wins have gone 69-90-6 ATS in the regular season when favored. And teams -- like Tennessee -- off upset losses as favorites of more than 10 points, have gone 27-14 ATS, including 7-0 ATS when installed as an underdog of +4 to +9.5 points. Take the Titans as a road underdog. |
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11-28-21 | Jets +2.5 v. Texans | Top | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Houston. The Texans snapped their 8-game losing streak last week when they upset Tennessee, 22-13, as a 10.5-point road underdog. But off that huge upset win, we will fade the Texans as a home favorite this afternoon. Since 1991, NFL teams off wins as a double-digit road underdog have gone 47-73-5 ATS, including 22-47-3 ATS vs. foes that don't have a winning record. Additionally, the Texans are a poor 19-32 ATS off an upset win. Take New York + the points. |
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11-28-21 | Falcons v. Jaguars OVER 45.5 | Top | 21-14 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Atlanta/Jacksonville game. The Jaguars have played their last five games Under the total, while the Falcons were shutout in their last game, so the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game this afternoon. But teams off 5 straight unders have gone 'over' the total in their next game more often than not. Additionally, when teams have gone 'under' in 4+ straight games, and their foe scored 7 or less in its previous game, those games have gone OVER the total 62.3% since 1980. Take the 'over.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-28-21 | Falcons -1 v. Jaguars | Top | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Jacksonville. The Falcons are 4-6, and have dropped back to back games, as they lost by 40 to Dallas, and 25 to New England. Yet they've been installed as a road favorite vs. Jacksonville. On the surface, it may look difficult to lay points on the road with Atlanta. But consider that NFL road teams have covered 65.3% over the past 42 seasons off back to back losses by more than 18 points, if their opponent was also off a SU loss. That bodes well for Matt Ryan & Co. this afternoon. As does the fact that .200 (or worse) teams, at Game 11 forward, have covered just 61 of 150 games if they weren't getting 4+ points. Finally, the Jaguars are a wallet-busting 9-28-1 ATS as single-digit home dogs vs. non-division foes. Lay the points with Atlanta. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-27-21 | California v. UCLA -6.5 | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over California. Last week, the Bruins smashed cross-town rival, USC, by 29 points. And that succeeded a 24-point blowout of Colorado here, at the Rose Bowl. Tonight, they'll welcome the Golden Bears, who also won in blowout fashion last week, 41-11, against rival, Stanford. We'll lay the points with UCLA, as home teams off back to back blowout wins by 24+ points, have cashed 61.1% since 1980 vs. foes also off a blowout 24-point SU/ATS win. That bodes well for UCLA here. As does the fact that this will be the 3rd straight road game for Cal. And, unfortunately for the Bears, single-digit dogs off a conference win, have cashed just 18.7% of conference games, if they were playing their 3rd straight road game, and their opponent was also off a win. Take UCLA to blow out the Bears. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-27-21 | Pelicans v. Jazz -12.5 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over New Orleans. These two teams met last night here, and the Pelicans stunned the Jazz, 98-87, as a 14-point road underdog. We'll take the Jazz in the rematch, as Utah has covered 75% since 1991 at home when playing with revenge vs. .600 (or worse) foes, if Utah was off a SU/ATS home loss in its previous game. Additionally, the Jazz fall into 117-58 and 140-84 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams to bounce back off upset defeats. Take the Jazz. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-27-21 | Blue Jackets v. Blues -161 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over Columbus. After a 5-0 start to the season, the Blues have gone 5-7-3 since, including an overtime loss in Chicago last night. And what made last night's loss even more frustrating was that St. Louis blew a 2-0, first period lead. Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets won for the 3rd straight game, with a 4-2 home victory over Vancouver last night. But their win streak should be halted tonight in St. Louis, as they've lost 20 of the last 25 meetings played here vs. the Blues. Even worse: Columbus is 7-14 after a home win, in which it scored more than three goals. Take St. Louis to bounce back on Saturday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-27-21 | Knicks +5 v. Hawks | Top | 99-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks + the points over Atlanta. The Hawks notched their 7th straight win last night with a 32-point blowout of the Memphis Grizzlies. Meanwhile, the Knicks faced another hot team last night, and fell to the Phoenix Suns, who won their 15th straight. The Knicks last met the Hawks in the playoffs last season, and the Hawks ousted the Knicks with a 4-1 series win. We'll take New York in this revenge role, as it falls into a 97-40 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams with revenge from a playoff series defeat. Even better: teams (like Atlanta) on a 5-game (or better) win streak, that won their previous game by more than 25 points, have gone 0-17 ATS their last 17! Take the Knicks + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-27-21 | Kentucky v. Louisville -3 | Top | 52-21 | Loss | -102 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals minus the points over Kentucky. The Cards come into tonight's rivalry game off their two best games of the season. Two weeks ago, they routed Syracuse, 41-3, as a 3-point home favorite. And then they followed up that victory with a 62-22 destruction of Duke, in Durham. Faithful followers know I love playing on home teams that can score. And NCAA Football teams have cashed 65.3% at home since 1980 vs. foes off a SU win, if our home team was off back to back SU/ATS wins in which it scored more than 40 points, and it wasn't favored by more than 3 points in the current game. Take Louisville minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-27-21 | West Virginia -15 v. Kansas | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Kansas. WVU is 5-6 on the season, and needs to win this afternoon to attain eligibility for a Bowl game. Kansas has played great the previous two weeks, as it won, 57-56, as a 31-point underdog at Texas. And then it covered the 21-point spread last week, in Fort Worth, vs. TCU (but lost 31-28). We'll fade Kansas here, as underdogs of more than 14 points, off back-to-back covers as an underdog by more than 14 points, have cashed just 30.3% since 1980. Take West Virginia to blow out the Jayhawks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-27-21 | UL-Monroe +22 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks + the points over the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns. On the surface, this looks like a mismatch, with the Warhawks on a 4-game losing streak, and the Cajuns on a 10-game win streak. But this Sun Belt conference rivalry has been dominated by the underdog, and especially the ROAD underdog, which has gone a staggering 16-0 ATS since 1998! And that's the way we'll look today, as Louisiana Lafayette also falls into a negative 80-153 ATS system of mine which fades certain .900 (or better) teams off point spread wins. Take Monroe + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-27-21 | Lamar v. Texas Tech -26.5 | Top | 57-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders minus the points over Lamar. The Red Raiders have sprinted out to a 5-0 record after walloping Nebraska-Omaha, 96-40, on Tuesday. We'll lay the points with Texas Tech as it is 52-4 SU and 30-10 ATS at home off a win by 12+ points, if it wasn't an underdog of 5+ points in its current game, including a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. .250 (or worse) opponents. Lay the points with the Red Raiders. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-27-21 | Northwestern v. Illinois -6.5 | Top | 14-47 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini minus the points over Northwestern. These two cross-state rivals have met 114 times, with the Wildcats winning each of the last six. But this is a great spot for Illinois to snap this losing streak, as it hasn't been favored by this many points since 2011. Indeed, it's been an underdog in eight of the last nine meetings (and, more often than not, a double-digit underdog). But this season, Northwestern is suffering through a down year, and enters this game on a 5-game losing streak. We'll lay the points, as revenge-minded teams have cashed 60% since 1981 when playing their final home game of the season against an opponent on a 5-game (or worse) losing streak. Take Illinois. |
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11-27-21 | Hawaii v. Wyoming -10 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
At 3 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys minus the points over Hawaii. The Rainbows upset the Colorado State Rams last week, on the Island, but now will play at Laramie, in their season finale. Unfortunately for Hawaii, it's covered just 12 of 45 games off a win, if it was playing a conference foe also off a win. And the Cowboys are 6-0-2 ATS their last eight vs. foes off an upset win, as well as 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS at home vs. Hawaii. Take Wyoming. |
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11-27-21 | Maine v. Bradley -14.5 | Top | 39-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
At 3 pm, our selection is on the Bradley Braves minus the points over Maine. Each of these teams has gotten off to slow starts this season. Bradley is 1-5 SU and 1-4 ATS, while Maine is 2-3 SU and 0-3 ATS. We'll step in and take Bradley today as a double-digit home favorite, as Missouri Valley Conference teams off 3+ losses, have gone 21-8 ATS when laying more than 3 points at home vs. non-conference foes. Take Bradley. |
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11-27-21 | Delaware State v. Long Island -12 | Top | 65-99 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Long Island Sharks minus the points over Delaware State. The Sharks are 0-4 following their narrow defeat, 64-62, at St Peters, as a 9.5-point underdog. This will be the home opener for Long Island, and it will also be the first game in which it is favored, so it will no doubt be happy to see the Hornets today at Steinberg Wellness Center. Long Island has cashed 67% when laying 5+ points, while the Hornets are 1-10 ATS as a double-digit underdog vs. foes off a SU loss. And the Sharks fall into a 73.5% ATS system of mine which plays on certain favorites of more than 8 points off a SU loss. Take Long Island. |
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11-27-21 | McNeese State v. Samford -6.5 | Top | 75-83 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the Samford Bulldogs minus the points over McNeese State. The Cowboys and Bulldogs are playing in the Emerald Coast Classic this afternoon, in Niceville, FL. Yesterday, each of these teams pulled off victories. McNeese blew out St Francis (NY), 71-59, as a 2.5-point dog, while Samford edged NC A&T, 77-75. We'll lay the points with Samford, as it falls into a superb 115-49 ATS system of mine, which goes against certain teams off upset wins. Take the Bulldogs minus the points. |
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11-27-21 | Coppin State v. East Carolina -15.5 | Top | 68-70 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the East Carolina Pirates minus the points over Coppin State. The Eagles enter this afternoon's game in Greenville off seven straight ATS wins. But this ATS success has triggered a negative 58-98 ATS system of mine. Additionally, underdogs of more than 14 points, off 6 straight covers, have cashed just 34% since 1990. Take East Carolina. |
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11-27-21 | Richmond +1.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 71-82 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Richmond Spiders + the points over Mississippi State. This game will be played in the Baha Mar Convention Center, in the Bahamas. Maryland and Louisville reached the championship game, while these two teams will meet in the consolation round. And it will be the 2nd meeting in 2021 between the schools. They actually met last year in the quarter-finals of the NIT Tournament, and Miss State hit a 3-pointer with 2 seconds left to lift it to a 68-67 victory. We'll take revenge-minded Richmond this afternoon, as it falls into a 73.9% ATS revenge system of mine. And the Spiders are also 16-9 ATS when installed as an underdog away from home, and playing with revenge vs. a non-conference foe. Take the Spiders. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-27-21 | Ohio State v. Michigan +7.5 | Top | 27-42 | Win | 100 | 17 h 43 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines + the points over Ohio State. The Buckeyes come into this game on a 9-game win streak, and have won their last two games by the scores of 59-31 and 56-7. But I believe Jim Harbaugh's men are in prime position to snap their 8-game losing streak to the Buckeyes. Michigan is 10-1 on the season, and has gone 9-2 ATS, while covering the spread by 8.18 ppg. U-M has been installed as a big home dog, and we'll grab the points, as we note that .700 (or better) teams, playing their final home game of the season, have cashed 71.8% in their final home game of the season against a conference foe off a double-digit win, if our home team was getting 7 or more points. Even better: road teams off back to back 38-point (or greater) wins have covered just 23.8% since 1980 in their final game of the season when matched up against a conference foe. Take Michigan + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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11-26-21 | Southern Miss v. Montana -7 | Top | 62-74 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Montana Grizzlies minus the points over Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles enter tonight's Zootown Classic game, at Dahlberg Arena, off back to back upset wins to start the tourney. They defeated NC Wilmington on Wednesday, 80-66, as a 2-point dog. Then they also upset UC San Diego last night, 56-55. Now, they'll take on the homestanding Grizzlies. Unfortunately, unrested teams, off back to back upset wins, have covered just 26% on the road in the regular season since 1990 vs. foes off a SU win. Take Montana minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-26-21 | Wizards -7.5 v. Thunder | Top | 101-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over Oklahoma City. The Wizards were favored by four points at New Orleans on Wednesday, yet were blown out by 25, 127-102. We'll take Washington to bounce back, as NBA road favorites of -4 (or more) points, off 24-point (or worse) upset losses, have covered 61.3% over the last 32 years. Take the Wizards. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-26-21 | Bulls -8.5 v. Magic | Top | 123-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls minus the points over Orlando. The Bulls were upset by Houston two nights ago. And they also were upset by the Pacers two games back. Off those two upset defeats, we'll step in and take the Bulls as a road favorite this evening, as > .600 favorites, off back to back upset losses, have gone 136-97 ATS in the regular season vs. foes off a loss. Take Chicago |
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11-26-21 | Suns v. Knicks +3.5 | Top | 118-97 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks + the points over the Phoenix Suns. The Suns have ripped off 14 straight wins. But their six road games in this stretch were against Sacramento, Memphis, Houston, Minnesota, San Antonio and Cleveland. And of these teams, only Memphis made last year's Playoffs -- and that was as a #8 seed. The number has also caught up to the Suns, as they've covered just one of their last six games. This will be the first time this season that the Knicks have been installed as a home underdog. But, dating back to last season, they're 4-1 ATS their last five as a home dog. Grab the points. |
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11-26-21 | Portland State v. Iowa -24.5 | Top | 51-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Portland State. This is a momentum play for us, as Iowa comes into tonight's game off a 48-point thrashing of Western Michigan. Iowa is now 5-0 on the season, and has outscored its opposition by 31.2 ppg. And it's covered the spread by an average of 6.10 ppg. Portland State, meanwhile, has a negative point spread differential (-8.25), and has covered just 38% as underdogs vs. non-conference foes off a SU/ATS win. Iowa has also covered 63% as a big favorite of -23 (or more) points. Lay the points with the Hawkeyes. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-26-21 | Iona v. Belmont -3.5 | Top | 65-72 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Belmont Bruins minus the points over Iona. This game will be played at HP Field House, in Orlando, FL. Rick Pittino's Gaels upset Alabama yesterday, in the first round of this ESPN Events Invitational, as a 13-point underdog. And that avenged a 68-55 loss to the Crimson Tide in the opening round of last year's NCAA Tournament. Off last night's huge emotional victory, we will fade Iona tonight. Indeed, teams that avenged non-conference tourney losses as underdogs of 7 (or more) points have covered their next game just 25% since 1991. That doesn't bode well for the Gaels tonight. Nor does the fact that Iona has covered 0 of 9 off an upset win as a dog of 6+ points. Or that the Bruins are 13-4 ATS away from home vs. .880 (or better) foes. Lay the points with the Bruins. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-26-21 | Jets +116 v. Wild | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Winnipeg Jets over the Minnesota Wild. Minnesota is a first place team in its Division (the Central), and although it's early in the season, the Wild must be feeling good about that. But it's interesting to note that the Wild also has a goal differential of just +6, by far the lowest number of any of the Division Leading teams (Carolina +22, Florida +25, Calgary +30). In fact, two other Central Clubs have goal differentials higher than Minnesota's +6 (St. Louis +10 and Colorado +15). So this would seem to indicate that the Wild has been fortunate up to this point and that a regression may be in order. Minnesota has a goals-allowed-per-game of 3.16, and there are only nine teams in the entire league with higher averages than that. At home, that number is even worse, as the Wild has allowed 3.57 GPG when playing here at Xcel Energy Center (the third-highest home number in the league). The Jets are 9-4 in their last 13 games vs. teams from the West and 6-2 in their last eight against teams from the Central Division. Take Winnipeg. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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11-26-21 | Cincinnati v. East Carolina +14 | Top | 35-13 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the East Carolina Pirates + the points over Cincinnati. The Bearcats' undefeated record will be put to the test this afternoon, as the Pirates certainly have the wherewithal to pull off the outright upset. ECU has won four straight, and has covered six of seven coming into this contest. And they've scored 45, 30 and 38 in their last three games. Faithful followers know I love playing on home dogs that can score. And home underdogs off 3+ wins, in which they've scored 113+ points, have cashed 60% over the last 42 years, including 14-3 ATS their last 17 when getting more than 7 points from an undefeated team. Take East Carolina. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-26-21 | Boise State v. San Diego State +3 | Top | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs + the points over Boise State. This game will be played bright-and-early on the West Coast -- a necessity since that was the only way for it to be televised by CBS. We'll take the homestanding Aztecs as an underdog. SDSU is 10-1 on the season. And teams with a > .900 record have gone 74-46-5 ATS as home underdogs when matched up against opponents off a SU win, including 28-11 ATS if their opponent covered the spread by 10+ points in its previous game. That bodes well for Brady Hoke's men today. As does the fact that SDSU is 12-5 ATS in its final home game of the season. Take the Aztecs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-26-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Central Michigan -8.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Central Michigan Chippewas minus the points over Eastern Michigan. The Eagles pulled off a big upset last week, when they stunned Western Michigan, 22-21. But they'll find the sledding tougher in Mt. Pleasant this afternoon, as the Chippewas are on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak, and have covered the spread in those three games by 20.5, 21.5 and 17.5 points. Dating back 42 years, home teams off 3 straight covers by double-digits have cashed 60% when matched up against a conference foe off an upset win. Even worse: Eastern Michigan is a wallet-busting 9-25 ATS on the road off a home win. Take Central Michigan. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-26-21 | Baylor -5.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 75-58 | Win | 100 | 2 h 24 m | Show |
At 11 am, our selection is on the Baylor Bears minus the points over Michigan State. This game tips off early in the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament in the Bahamas. Michigan State comes into the game off an upset win over UConn, 64-60, as a 2.5-point underdog. They'll now take on the defending champion Bears, who eked out a 69-61 win over Virginia Commonwealth, as a 13.5-point favorite. But Baylor is 12-7 ATS off a point spread loss. And it also falls into a very good 140-67 ATS system of mine which plays on certain favorites off ATS defeats. Take the Bears. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-25-21 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -2 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Ole Miss. This Egg Bowl rivalry is one of the best in College Football, and one reason for this is that the state of Mississippi has no professional sports teams or major cities. The rivalry dates back to 1901, when Mississippi St (then known as Mississippi A&M) defeated Ole Miss, 17-0. Ole Miss currently leads the series 63-46-6, including a win last year, 31-24, in Oxford. Tonight's game will be played in Starkville, and we'll take the revenge-minded Bulldogs. The revenger in this series has done quite well, as it's gone 24-15-1 ATS, including 9-1 ATS its last 10 when it owned a win percentage of .600 (or better). Even better: the Bulldogs come into this game off momentum-building, back-to-back SU/ATS wins. And they have covered the last five in a row, culminating in last week's 55-10 thrashing of Tennessee St. The Rebels have struggled over the years in competitively-priced games with point spreads of 3 points or less, as they've gone 18-33-2 ATS, including 1-12 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes. Take the Bulldogs minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-25-21 | Raiders +9 v. Cowboys | Top | 36-33 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders + the points over Dallas. The Raiders sprinted out to a 5-2 start, including two impressive wins against Denver and Philadelphia following the Jon Gruden resignation. But then WR Henry Ruggs caused real damage to the team (not to mention himself, and the woman he killed), and the Raiders proceeded to lose their next three games to the Giants, Chiefs and Bengals. Las Vegas is 5-5, so it needs to win this afternoon to get back in the Wild Card hunt. We'll take the points, as .500 (or better) NFL teams, off back-to-back games where they failed to cover the spread by 10+ points, have cashed 65.7% since 1980 vs. .700 (or better) opposition. Additionally, the Cowboys have covered just 10 of 37 games as a home favorite vs. non-division foes, if that opponent entered off a home loss. Take the Raiders + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-25-21 | Fresno State v. San Jose State +7.5 | Top | 40-9 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the San Jose St Spartans + the points over Fresno St. The Spartans suffered a 31-point upset loss at the hands of Utah St last week, 48-17, as a 4.5-point home favorite. But prior to that loss, the Spartans had covered four straight games. This afternoon, San Jose has been installed as a big home dog, and we'll grab the points, as we note that Mountain West Conference home dogs of more than 3 points have gone 41-20 ATS in their final home game of the season, including 3-0 ATS off an upset loss. Take San Jose. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-24-21 | Blazers v. Kings +2.5 | Top | 121-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over Portland. The Luke Walton era came to an unceremonious end, when he was fired a couple of days ago. Alvin Gentry is the interim coach, and Sacramento dropped its first game with him manning the sidelines, 102-94, to Philadelphia. Tonight, the Kings will host the Trail Blazers, who are on a 4-game SU/ATS win streak, and we'll grab the points with the home underdog, as the Kings fall into a superb 31-6 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home teams against foes off 3 ATS wins. Take Sacramento + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-24-21 | Hawks v. Spurs +4.5 | Top | 124-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Atlanta. The Hawks have won 5 straight, while the Spurs have lost 5 straight. But the Spurs are 61-20 ATS at home vs. Eastern conference foes, if the Spurs were off a loss, and their opponent was not off a SU/ATS loss. Take San Antonio + the points. |
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11-24-21 | Pistons +15 v. Bucks | Top | 93-114 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Milwaukee. The Pistons come into this game off an 8-point home loss last night. But Detroit is a solid 5-0 ATS its last five, and 24-9 ATS its last 33 off a home defeat, including 6-0 ATS when getting 9+ points. Take the Pistons. |
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11-24-21 | Bulls -8.5 v. Rockets | Top | 113-118 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls minus the points over Houston. The Bulls were blasted in their last game by 32 points. We'll take Chicago to rebound tonight, as road favorites off an upset home loss by more than 25 points have covered 63.1% since 1990. Take Chicago. |
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11-24-21 | Sam Houston State v. SMU -12 | Top | 66-75 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs minus the points over Sam Houston State. The Mustangs were upset by Loyola Marymount on Monday, but we'll take them to bounce back tonight vs. the Bearkats, as they're 26-2 SU and 19-7-2 ATS off a loss, when favored by more than 4 vs. a non-conference foe. Take SMU. |
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11-24-21 | CS-Fullerton v. Northern Arizona +4 | Top | 73-56 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks plus the points over Cal State Fullerton. Each of these teams played Rio Grande Valley over the past two days. On Monday, the Vaqueros upset the Lumberjacks, 82-80. Then, last night, Rio Grande also upset Fullerton, 72-67. We'll grab the points with the Lumberjacks, as they're 15-4 ATS as an underdog of +5 (or more) points off an upset loss, including 6-0 ATS vs. non-conference foes. Take Northern Arizona. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-24-21 | Nets v. Celtics +1 | Top | 123-104 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics over the Brooklyn Nets. This is a revenge game for the Celtics, who were ousted in last year's playoffs by Brooklyn. We'll take Boston, as it falls into a super revenge system of mine which is 73-25 ATS since 1991. Take the Celtics. |
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11-24-21 | Rangers v. Islanders +112 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Islanders over the New York Rangers. After 13 straight games on the road to open the season, the Islanders finally got to play at their new home last Saturday night. But after two games here at the UBS Arena, the Isles are still looking for their first victory in the shiny new building. Home has not been "sweet home" for the Isles as they have been out-scored so far at home by a combined 8-2 in losses to the Flames and Maple Leafs. COVID-19 can be blamed at least somewhat for the Islanders swoon as no fewer than seven players have been out on protocol the last few games. They may get some of them back tonight for their first cross-town battle at UBS Arena with the Rangers. The Islanders are hoping recent history repeats itself so they can finally get their first win in their new home tonight and no doubt the fans will be pumped for the first meetings with the Rangers this season. The Isles have won the last four meetings and 20 out of the last 28, including 10 of the last 14 at home. Take the Islanders as a home dog. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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11-24-21 | Hornets v. Magic +7.5 | Top | 106-99 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic + the points over Charlotte. The Hornets have been installed as a big road favorite tonight. Unfortunately, they're 3-8 ATS their last 11 when laying 6+ points on the road. Meanwhile, the Magic are 29-22 ATS their last 51 division contests, including 13-7 ATS vs. a foe off a SU/ATS win. Take Orlando. |
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11-24-21 | UMass Lowell v. Massachusetts -9.5 | Top | 81-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Massachusetts Minutemen minus the points over Massachusetts Lowell, as UMass falls into 55-20 and 91-54 ATS systems of mine that play on certain big home favorites off a SU loss. The Minutemen lost to Ball State at the Jersey Mike's Classic, 89-86, on Sunday. And that continued a long-term trend for the Minutemen. UMass is 2-0 SU/ATS at home this season, but 0-4 ATS away from home. And it's 18-7 ATS its last 25 at home, compared to 11-23 ATS its last 34 away from home. So, with the Minutemen back in the friendly environs of the Mullins Center, we'll lay the points with UMass on this Wednesday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-24-21 | VCU v. Syracuse -4.5 | Top | 67-55 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange minus the points over VCU. This game will be played in the Bahamas, in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament. Syracuse comes into this game off an upset loss to Colgate, 100-85, on Saturday. We'll lay the points with Jim Boeheim's men, as they're 23-11 ATS off an upset defeat. Take Syracuse. |
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11-24-21 | Jacksonville State -3 v. Drexel | Top | 72-64 | Win | 100 | 3 h 9 m | Show |
At 2:30 pm (TIME CHANGE), our selection is on the Jacksonville State Gamecocks minus the points over Drexel. The Gamecocks were supposed to meet Abilene Christian in the first round of this Baha Mar Hoops Tourney, but the Wildcats had to pull out due to COVID-19 protocols. So, the Gamecocks opened against Valparaiso, instead. The Beacons won that game, 78-70, and the Gamecocks had yesterday off. We'll play on Jacksonville State off that defeat, as it falls into one of my favorite NCAA Basketball systems which is 72-27 ATS since 1990. Additionally, the Dragons are 0-8 ATS off a SU/ATS win when priced from +2 to +6.5 vs. non-conference foes. Take Jacksonville State. |
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11-24-21 | Rider -2 v. Bucknell | Top | 85-79 | Win | 100 | 1 h 11 m | Show |
At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Rider Broncs minus the points over Bucknell. These two teams met, coincidentally, seven days ago at Bucknell. The Bison won that game, 81-74. They'll now meet in the final round of the Cancun Challenge, and we'll take the revenge-minded Broncs, as they fall into a 65% ATS revenge system of mine. Lay the points. |
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11-23-21 | Heat -9.5 v. Pistons | Top | 100-92 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Detroit. The Heat's 5-game ATS win streak was snapped on Saturday, in a 103-100 loss to the Wizards. Still, Miami ranks #3 in the NBA in point spread differential (+4.88), and #2 in the league in ATS win percentage (.705). Conversely, Detroit has failed to cover the spread by 2.71 ppg, which ranks #24, and has covered just 43.7% of its games. The Pistons are a poor 21-37 ATS as a home underdog of +7 (or more) points vs. winning opponents. Meanwhile, Miami is a solid 76-52 ATS as a road favorite in non-division games, if it lost its previous game. Take the Heat. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-23-21 | Illinois -9.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 72-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini minus the points over Kansas State. For each of these two teams, yesterday's games were Jekyll-and-Hyde affairs. Illinois was favored by 10, and broke out to an early 15-point lead vs. Cincinnati, but lost by 20, while K-State fell behind by 18 at the half, yet stormed back to lose by just 8 vs. Arkansas. We'll lay the points with the Illini, as they're 10-5 ATS off an upset loss, including a perfect 5-0 ATS vs. foes off a SU loss. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have covered just six of 24 vs. non-conference foes off an upset loss, including 0-9 ATS if their foe was favored by more than six points in its defeat. Take Illinois to bounce back tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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11-22-21 | Grizzlies +10 v. Jazz | Top | 119-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over Utah. These teams met in last year's Playoffs, and the Jazz won the last four in the series to eliminate Memphis from the title chase. We'll take the Grizz tonight, as we note that they fall into a 71% ATS NBA revenge system of mine. Even better: they were blown out by 43 two nights ago in Minnesota. But that embarrassing defeat has triggered a great 68% system of mine which plays on certain rested teams off 40+ point losses. Take Memphis. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-22-21 | Penguins v. Jets -110 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Winnipeg Jets over the Pittsburgh Penguins. Pittsburgh's NHL team is 2/3 of the way through a Canadian road trip and if the first two games are any indication, the Penguins may not want to return to the U.S. The Pens have won the first two games in Montreal and Toronto by a combined 8-0 and tonight they go further west to Winnipeg to take on the Jets. The Pens have Sidney Crosby, Brian Dumoulin, and Jeff Carter back in the lineup but are still without C Evgeni Malkin, who continues to nurse a damaged knee. This could be a tough match-up for the visitors against a Jets team that has only lost one home game in regulation so far this season (7-1-1). The Penguins' victory in Toronto on Saturday was their first in their last six immediately following a victory. Pittsburgh is also 0-4 in its last four games against teams from the Western Conference. Meanwhile, the Jets are 5-1 in their last six games against teams that have lost more than half their games. Take Winnipeg. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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11-22-21 | Giants v. Bucs -10.5 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 132 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus the points over the New York Giants. We had our 2nd biggest play last week on the Washington Football Team as a double-digit dog vs. Tampa, and were rewarded with a huge upset win against Tom Brady & Co. But Brady's teams have bounced back strong off losses in his career, as they've gone 58-31 ATS, including a perfect 4-0 ATS on Monday and Thursday night games, and 18-2 ATS vs. foes off back-to-back ATS wins. With New York, indeed, riding a 3-game point spread win streak, we'll fade the Giants in Tampa. Take the Buccaneers minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-22-21 | Rockets +12.5 v. Celtics | Top | 90-108 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over Boston. The Rockets have lost 15 of 16 games this season, and are 6-9 ATS. But they're 5-2-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog (compared to 0-6 ATS as a single-digit underdog, and 1-1 as a favorite). And, going back further, we find the Rockets as 43-26 ATS as a double-digit dog, including 20-7 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins. Take Houston. |
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11-22-21 | Hornets v. Wizards -3.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over the Charlotte Hornets. We played against the Hornets two nights ago in Atlanta, and were rewarded with a 10-point Hawks win (and cover). We'll go against Charlotte again tonight, as they're a horrid 7-21 ATS their last 28 as a road underdog. Lay the points with Washington. |
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11-22-21 | Hofstra v. Richmond -9 | Top | 68-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Richmond Spiders minus the points over Hofstra. The Pride is 1-3 SU to start the year, but 3-1 ATS, while Richmond is 2-2 SU/ATS. These teams met 11 months ago here, and the Pride upset Richmond, 76-71, as a 12-point favorite. We'll lay the points with Richmond in this revenge match, as the Spiders are a solid 36-26 ATS with revenge, including 16-5 ATS if their foe has a winning ATS record. Take Richmond. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-22-21 | Cornell v. Penn State -15 | Top | 74-85 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over Cornell. The Big Red are 4-0 SU/3-0 ATS, but will have a tough time staying undefeated after this evening's game, in which they're a double digit underdog. Cornell is just 1-9-1 ATS when priced from +16.5 to -10 points, off back to back wins. Take Penn State minus the points. |
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11-22-21 | Kent State -2 v. James Madison | Top | 74-69 | Win | 100 | 3 h 0 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes minus the points over James Madison. This early game is being played in Naples, FL, as part of the Naples Invitational. James Madison enters this game off 4 straight wins (including upset win in its last two), and 3 straight covers. But off those two upset wins, the Dukes fall into a negative 54-105 ATS system of mine. Even worse, the Dukes are 15-34 ATS their last 49 off an upset win. Take Kent State. |
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11-21-21 | Knicks v. Bulls -5 | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls minus the points over the New York Knicks. This is the 2nd meeting between these teams this season. The Knicks won Round 1, with a narrow 104-103 victory in October. But that game sets up our play tonight, which is one of my favorite NBA systems. It's cashed 110 of 154, and involves playing on certain revenge-minded teams against unrested opponents. Yesterday, the Knicks won a hard-fought game against Houston, while Chicago had Saturday off following its 114-108 triumph at Denver. We'll take the rested revenger on this Sunday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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11-21-21 | Nuggets v. Suns -8 | Top | 97-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Denver. The Nuggets avenged their playoff defeat by whipping Phoenix on Opening Night, back in October, 110-98. Since that loss, the Suns have gone 12-2, including the last 11 in a row. That doesn't bode well for Denver tonight. Nor does the fact that it likely will have to play without its star Center, Nikola Jokic. Phoenix is 52-31 its last 83 when playing with revenge, including 11-3 ATS if it lost by double-digits at home in the previous meeting. Take the Suns. |
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11-21-21 | Maple Leafs v. Islanders +110 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Islanders over the Toronto Maple Leafs. After 13 straight games on the road to open the season, the New York Islanders finally opened their home schedule last night at the brand new UBS Arena in Elmont. Unfortunately, the home team couldn't deliver a win to christen the new rink as the visiting Flames won the game, 5-2, thanks to two empty-net tallies late in the game. The Isles have a quick turnaround against a very talented Maple Leafs club tonight (and one which I tabbed in the preseason to win the Stanley Cup this season), but there are at least a couple of reasons to believe New York will get its first win in its new home this evening. First off, despite a 12-5-1 overall record, the Leafs are just 3-3 on the road this season, including their 2-0 loss in Pittsburgh last night. Second, this has been a very host-friendly series lately as the home team is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings of these two clubs. Take the Islanders. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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11-21-21 | St Bonaventure -4 v. Marquette | Top | 70-54 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the St Bonaventure Bonnies minus the points over Marquette. The Golden Eagles enter this game off 3 straight upset wins over Illinois, Ole Miss and West Virginia. But they now fall into a negative 16-43 ATS system of mine which fades certain .833 (or better) teams off back to back upset wins. And Marquette has also just covered 30% over the last 32 seasons off back to back upsets. We'll lay the points with St. Bonaventure on Sunday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-21-21 | Boston College +3.5 v. Rhode Island | Top | 65-71 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Boston College Eagles + the points over Rhode Island. This game is being played as part of the Sunshine Slam tournament in Daytona Beach, FL. From time to time, teams meet twice in the pre-conference schedule, due to playing a team in a tournament's later rounds, and also having that team on its regular schedule. And that's the case here, as these teams met just four days ago in Rhode Island. The Rams won that game by eight points, as a 4.5-point home favorite. We'll grab the points with Boston College in this rematch, as it falls into three of my better revenge systems. Moreover, Rhode Island is a wallet-breaking 32-61 ATS at home, or on neutral courts when favored against a revenge-minded foe. Take Boston College. |
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11-21-21 | Cowboys v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 104 h 55 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Dallas. To borrow a line from Mark Twain, the reports of Kansas City's death have been an exaggeration. Yes, the Chiefs have not looked, at times, like the juggernaut from 2019-20, but their 41-14 dismantling of Las Vegas last week should serve as a reminder that they are a force with which to be reckoned. And I believe the Chiefs are still woefully undervalued. Last week, they laid just 2.5 points on the road vs. the Raiders (after being favored by 7.5, 7, and 14.5 points at the Raiders the three previous seasons). Now, they're a short home favorite vs. an admittedly good Dallas team. Still, Kansas City is 46-24 ATS in the regular season when not laying more than 7 points. Meanwhile, Dallas is 14-33-1 ATS vs. winning opposition when not getting 3+ points. Take the Chiefs to blow out Dallas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-21-21 | Mavs +2 v. Clippers | Top | 91-97 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + the points over Los Angeles. In last year's playoffs, the Clippers bounced the Mavs off the hardwood, and onto the golf course, with a 7-game series win. So, with revenge on its mind from that playoff ouster, we'll back the Mavericks in this underdog role this afternoon, as it falls into several of my better revenge systems. Additionally, the Mavericks are a super 23-8 ATS their last 31 off a road defeat. With Dallas, indeed, off a road loss at Phoenix, we'll grab the points with the Mavs. |
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11-21-21 | Princeton v. Oregon State -4.5 | Top | 81-80 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
At 3 pm, our selection is on the Oregon State Beavers minus the points over Princeton. Wayne Tinkle's Beavers were upset, 78-77, here in Corvallis by Samford, on Thursday. The Bulldogs shot 50.9% for the game, which was the first time this season Oregon State allowed 44+ percent. Still, Oregon State is a solid 19-8 ATS its last 27, including 8-2 ATS off a loss. And the Beavers fall into a 66% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset losses. Lay the points. |
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11-21-21 | Packers v. Vikings +2.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 76 h 5 m | Show |
At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings + the points over the Green Bay Packers. Green Bay is 8-2, and has covered nine straight games (winning eight, straight-up), heading into this divisional match-up vs. Minnesota, which is 4-5 on the season. Unfortunately, teams off 9 straight ATS wins have gone 0-5 ATS since Jan. 8, 2005. And road teams, at Game 11 forward, have cashed just 1 of 14 divisional games vs. losing opposition, if our road team's ATS win percentage was greater than .750. Take Minnesota. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-21-21 | Dolphins v. Jets +3.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Miami. The Dolphins pulled off a massive upset last week when they defeated the Baltimore Ravens, as an 8.5-point home dog. Unfortunately, road teams have covered just 60 of 149 over the last 42 years following an upset win as a dog of more than 8 points, and just 37% when priced as a road favorite. Take the New York Jets. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-20-21 | Jazz v. Kings +7.5 | Top | 123-105 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over Utah. The Kings were booed off the court last night, as they were walloped 108-89 here, at home, by the Toronto Raptors. I fully expect a much better effort tonight, and they'll be playing a Jazz team against which they've been very competitive in two losses this season. The Jazz won the first meeting here, 110-101, but the game was tied at 95 before Utah went on a 15-6 run to close the game. Then, earlier this month, the Kings lost by just six at Utah, 119-113, as a 9-point road underdog. For technical support, consider that home dogs of +6 (or more) points have covered 62% since 1990 after an upset loss the previous day, in which they failed to cover the spread by 14+ points. Take Sacramento. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-20-21 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Montana -11.5 | Top | 47-68 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Montana Grizzlies minus the points over Nebraska-Omaha. After an 0-2 road trip which saw the Grizzlies lose SU/ATS at Mississippi State (as an 11.5-point dog) and North Dakota (as a 7-point favorite), they'll no doubt be happy to be back home at Dahlberg Arena tonight. And Montana has covered 67% at home vs. non-conference foes, if the Grizzlies were off back to back SU/ATS losses. Meanwhile, the Mavericks are a poor 16-25 ATS their last 41. And they fall into negative 43-92 and 91-158 ATS systems of mine that go against certain road teams vs. foes off an upset loss. Take Montana. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-20-21 | Oregon v. Utah -3 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 31 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes minus the points over Oregon. The Utes come into this home game off back to back win over Stanford (52-7) and Arizona (38-29). I love playing on home teams that can score, and especially when I don't have to lay a lot of points. Indeed, over the last 42 years in the regular season, home teams not favored by 4+ points have cashed 60% following back to back wins away from home in which they scored more than 35 points. Lay the points with Utah. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-20-21 | Hornets v. Hawks -6 | Top | 105-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over Charlotte. The Hornets are currently riding a 5-game SU/ATS win streak following their 121-118 victory over Indiana last night. Unfortunately, unrested road underdogs of +6 (or more) points, off 5 SU/ATS wins, have covered just 28% in the regular season since 1990. And the Hawks are a super 30-8 ATS at home vs. unrested foes off 4+ wins. Lay the points with Atlanta. |
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11-20-21 | Baylor v. Kansas State | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 12 m | Show |
At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats over Baylor. The Wildcats have dropped the last three meetings vs. Baylor, but that streak should end here, in Manhattan, on Saturday. Kansas State is on a 4-game win streak (and 3-game ATS win streak) following its 34-17 victory last Saturday against WVU. And while Baylor also impressed last week with an upset win, at home, vs. then-undefeated Oklahoma, I expect a letdown away from home this weekend, as teams generally do just that off such wins (and especially when installed as a short road favorite, as they're 27-42 ATS). Even worse, over the last 42 seasons, revenge-minded teams playing their final home game of the season, off a 17-point win, have gone 16-0 ATS when not laying double-digits vs. foes off an upset home win. Take Kansas State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-20-21 | Rockets v. Knicks -11 | Top | 99-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears minus the points over Stanford. This will be the Cardinal's second road game this season. They were favored by 3 at Santa Clara in their first one, but were blown out, 88-72, by the Broncos. In that game, Stanford allowed Santa Clara to shoot 59.6% from the floor. The Cardinal have been consistently poor on the road for years, as they're 29-50 ATS their last 79, including 18-37 ATS as an underdog. Take Baylor minus the points. |
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11-20-21 | Kansas v. TCU -21 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -108 | 28 h 45 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs minus the points over Kansas. The Jayhawks won their biggest game, perhaps, since 2008's Orange Bowl victory over Virginia Tech, when they upset Texas last week. The Jayhawks won, 57-56, in overtime, as a 31-point road underdog, and it was the first time since October 4, 2008 that the Jayhawks won on the Big 12 road! Unfortunately, Kansas is back on the road in this game at TCU, which will be looking to redeem itself after a 63-17 blowout loss at Oklahoma State last weekend. We'll go against Kansas, as Big 12 Conference teams are 0-10 ATS on the road off an upset road win as a 6-point (or greater) underdog. Take TCU. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-20-21 | Illinois-Chicago v. Loyola-Chicago -18.5 | Top | 63-80 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers minus the points over Illinois-Chicago. The Ramblers won, 92-56, vs. Chicago St. on Tuesday. And they're a terrific 57-32-1 ATS off a point spread win, including 27-10 ATS when favored by more than 6 points. Even better: that 36-point win against Chicago St. has triggered an 86-33 ATS 'momentum' system of mine. Lay the points with Loyola-Chicago. |
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11-20-21 | Michigan v. Maryland +15.5 | Top | 59-18 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins + the points over Michigan. The Terps are 5-5 straight-up, but they've lost their last six to the spread. And they need to win one of their final two games (Michigan, Rutgers) to attain Bowl eligibility. It's true that Michigan has been a great point spread team this season, with an 8-2 ATS record. But NCAA teams off an ATS win have gone 15-32 ATS vs. foes off 6+ ATS losses in a row. And .500 (or better) teams off 6+ ATS losses have cashed 43 of 75 (57.3%), including 6-2 ATS as a home dog of +7 (or more) points. With Michigan off a big road win against a good Penn State team, we'll look for a letdown this afternoon. Take Maryland + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-20-21 | Arkansas State v. Georgia State -16.5 | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -103 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Georgia State Panthers minus the points over Arkansas State. The Red Wolves won their 2nd game of the season when they upset Louisiana Monroe last week, as a 3-point road underdog. But they'll be hard-pressed to make it two-upsets-in-a-row, as the Panthers have covered five straight (and seven of eight) heading into this game in Atlanta. Last week's game was Georgia State's most impressive yet, as they won, 42-40, as a 12.5-point road underdog at Coastal Carolina. And that bodes well for Georgia State here, as teams off a game where they covered the spread by 13+ points have gone 100-57 ATS as double-digit home favorites vs. foes off upset conference wins. Lay the points with the Panthers. |
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11-20-21 | Austin Peay v. Dayton -13.5 | Top | 87-81 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Dayton Flyers minus the points over Austin Peay. There's not been a team more disappointing this season than Anthony Grant's Flyers. They're 0-3 ATS, and have failed to cover by 3.5, 19, and 28.5 points. No other team has as bad a point spread differential (with at least 3 lined games) than does Dayton. But this horrible start has, of course, led to an adjustment by the oddsmakers. And this number, by my math, now confers great value on Dayton. Indeed, the last time these two teams met, Dayton won by 28, as a 19.5-point favorite. And Austin Peay's never been great against non-conference foes, as it's 29-106 SU and 52-78-5 ATS, including 0-41 SU and 12-28-1 ATS as an underdog of +14 (or more) points. Take Dayton. |
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11-20-21 | Richmond v. Drake -4.5 | Top | 70-73 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Drake Bulldogs minus the points over Richmond. The Bulldogs have been one of the more reliable teams at home over the last several years, as they've gone 41-18 ATS at Knapp Center. In their last game -- also here at home -- Drake routed South Dakota, 99-50. And that 49-point blowout win has triggered very good 95-36 and 186-122 ATS 'momentum' systems of mine. Lay the points with Drake. |
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11-20-21 | Stanford v. Baylor -14.5 | Top | 48-86 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears minus the points over Stanford. This will be the Cardinal's second road game this season. They were favored by 3 at Santa Clara in their first one, but were blown out, 88-72, by the Broncos. In that game, Stanford allowed Santa Clara to shoot 59.6% from the floor. The Cardinal have been consistently poor on the road for years, as they're 29-50 ATS their last 79, including 18-37 ATS as an underdog. Take Baylor minus the points. |
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11-20-21 | Michigan State v. Ohio State -19 | Top | 7-56 | Win | 100 | 24 h 43 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Michigan State. Michigan State is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS this season, yet Sparty finds itself installed as a massive underdog against Ohio State (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS). The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points but consider that, in matchups between unrested winning teams, underdogs of more than 14 points have covered just 28% since 1985, at Game 8 forward, when getting more than 14 in a regular season game, if they didn't own a worse W/L percentage! That doesn't bode well for Michigan State, in Columbus on Saturday. Nor does the fact that Ohio State is 34-12-1 ATS when not laying more than 20 points, if its opponent owned a better ATS win percentage. Take the Buckeyes to blow out Michigan State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-20-21 | Iowa State +3.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones + the points over Oklahoma. The Sooners suffered their first loss of the season last week at Baylor, and are now 9-1 this season. For all intents and purposes, that loss has eliminated Oklahoma from the National Title competition. One of the things I love to do is play against certain teams that lose their first game late in the season, as they often suffer emotional letdowns following that initial defeat. And this game vs. Iowa State is a very good place to step in and fade Oklahoma, as the Cyclones will play with revenge from a loss in last year's Big 12 Championship game. Take Iowa State + the points. |
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11-19-21 | San Diego State v. UNLV +11 | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 88 h 42 m | Show | |
At 11:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the UNLV Rebels + the points over San Diego State. After starting the season 0-8, the Rebels have ripped off back to back blowout wins. And they were underdogs in each game! Last Saturday, UNLV stunned Hawaii, 27-13, as a 3.5-point home dog. And the week prior to that, it upset New Mexico, in Albuquerque, 31-17, as a 2.5-point road dog. We'll take the points here, as double-digit home dogs, off back to back double-digit wins, and also back to back double-digit covers, have cashed 65.2% over the last 42 seasons. Even better: this is the Rebels' final home game of the season. And Mountain West Conference home teams have gone 40-20 ATS in their final home game, when installed as an underdog of more than 3 points. Take UNLV. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-19-21 | Oakland v. Alabama -16.5 | Top | 59-86 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Oakland. Alabama is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, but failed to cover the spread vs. South Alabama on Tuesday. It was favored by 20.5, yet won by just five, 73-68. Tonight, they'll host Oakland in the first match-up between these teams since 2013 (a game Alabama won by 20). The Golden Grizzlies are 3-0 ATS to start this young season. But they're also a horrid 0-13 SU and 2-10-1 ATS as an underdog off back to back point spread wins. The Crimson Tide, meanwhile, are 5-0 SU/ATS at home off an ATS loss. Lay the points with Alabama. |
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11-19-21 | Florida International -5.5 v. Green Bay | Top | 63-60 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Florida International Panthers minus the points over Wisconsin Green Bay. This game is being played at the Jersey Mike's Classic, in St. Petersburg, FL. The Panthers blew out Ball State last night, 73-60, as a 1.5-point favorite. And that was their second straight blowout win, as they also trounced Trinity (FL), 111-48, last Friday. Green Bay, meanwhile, has yet to win a game, as it's 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS. We'll take the Panthers tonight, as they're 31-16 ATS away from home off a double-digit win. And, even better, the favored team in matchups between the Horizon League and Conference USA has gone 34-14 ATS when priced from -2 to -13 points. Take Florida International. |
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11-19-21 | Magic +10 v. Nets | Top | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic + the points over Brooklyn. This will be Brooklyn's 3rd game in 4 nights, and Kevin Durant has just been scratched. That's all we need to pull the trigger on Orlando as a big road underdog. The Nets blew out Orlando, 123-90, earlier this season. But NBA teams playing with revenge from a loss by more than 20 points are 8-1 ATS this year. Orlando also falls into a 66.0% ATS revenge system of mine, which plays on certain teams that lost at home to their opponent in the previous meeting. Meanwhile, the Nets are a soft 42-63 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Take Orlando. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-19-21 | Pacers +1.5 v. Hornets | Top | 118-121 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over the Charlotte Hornets. The Hornets are on a 4-game SU/ATS win streak following their double-digit victory over division-leading Washington, while Indy has dropped back to back games to start its 3-game road trip, which finishes tonight in the Queen City. We'll take the points with the Pacers, as small underdog, as they fall into a 134-68 ATS system of mine which plays on certain sub-.389 teams off upset losses, while Charlotte is a wallet-breaking 6-23 ATS its last 29 at home off 3 SU/ATS Wins. Take the Pacers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-19-21 | Marquette v. West Virginia -4.5 | Top | 82-71 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Marquette. This game is being played as part of the Charleston Classic, in South Carolina. Marquette enters off back to back upset wins over Ole Miss (78-72) and Illinois (67-66), while WVU is 3-0 after blowing out Elon, 87-68, last night. We'll fade Marquette off its back to back upsets, as it's covered just one of its last seven following 2 upset wins, while WVU is also 11-3 ATS vs. foes off back to back upsets (including 5-0 ATS vs. non-conference foes). And Marquette also falls into a negative 88-139 ATS system of mine that goes against certain teams off back-to-back upsets. Take WVU. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-18-21 | Patriots v. Falcons +7 | Top | 25-0 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over the New England Patriots. The Patriots have won and covered four straight games following their overtime defeat to the Dallas Cowboys. And their last game was the most impressive, as they completely dismantled a good Cleveland Browns club, 45-7, as a 2.5-point favorite. They'll now play a Falcons squad which was destroyed last week by Dallas, 43-3. The knee-jerk reaction might be to lay the points with New England, given that it won by 38 last week, while Atlanta lost by 40. But consider that home underdogs, priced from +3 to +14 points, have gone 85-59 ATS off a loss by more than 14 points, if their opponent was off a win by more than 14 points. Even better: if our home dog gave up 37+ points in that previous game, while our road favorite scored 37+ points in its previous game, then our 85-59 stat zooms to a perfect 11-0 ATS. Take Atlanta + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-18-21 | Stars v. Wild -135 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Wild over the Dallas Stars. The Stars have seen some solid play from young stars like C Roope Hintz (three game scoring streak), W Jason Robertson (three points in Tuesday's win), and D Miro Heiskanen (tied for fifth in points for D-men with 13). In addition, veterans like Joe Pavelski (points in seven straight) have stepped it up recently. But those offensive gains are somewhat nullified due to the fact that two of their top three goalies -- Braden Holtby and Ben Bishop -- are sidelined with injuries. And Anton Khudobin -- who is scheduled to start tonight -- has also been dealing with a non-COVID illness that kept him out of Tuesday's game with Detroit. That could be a problem tonight in Minnesota where the Wild have scored at a rate of 3.83 GPG (4th best GPG at home). The Stars are 3-4-1 away from home this season -- not a bad road record on the surface. But they have yet to win on the road in regulation, and that task is made more difficult tonight at Minneapolis where Dallas is just 2-6 in the last eight meetings. Take the Wild. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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11-18-21 | USC Upstate v. East Tennessee State -16 | Top | 43-56 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the East Tennessee State Buccaneers minus the points over South Carolina Upstate. The Bucs were blown out by Tennessee, 94-62, on Saturday, but I love ETSU to bounce back this evening. The Bucs are an impressive 28-11-2 ATS off a loss by more than 8 points, including 7-0 ATS the previous two seasons. Meanwhile, the Spartans are a wallet-breaking 0-27 SU and 7-19-1 ATS as an underdog, priced from +6.5 to +20 points, including 1-8 ATS vs. a foe off a loss. Take East Tennessee State minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-17-21 | Blackhawks v. Seattle Kraken -145 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -145 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Kraken over the Chicago Blackhawks. Chicago's on a 3-game win streak. But all three wins were at home. And the first two came via overtime/shootout, while the 3rd was in regulation, but against the 2-13-1 Arizona Coyotes. On the road, the Blackhawks have yet to win, as they are 0-6, and have been outscored 25-11. Chicago is 11-16 (minus 6.1 net games on the moneyline) off back-to-back wins; 15-27 (minus 11.0 net games) off back-to-back home games; and 12-20 (minus 8.7 net games) off a home win. The Kraken's Philipp Grubauer has just been confirmed as tonight's goalie following the morning skate. It's true that Grubauer has been a disappointment in the early going, and ranks near the bottom in the major statistical categories. But the one goalie who has been worse than Grubauer is Chicago's Marc-Andre Fleury! This game sets up well for Grubauer, who has had to play the lion's share between the pipes this season, as back-up Chris Driedger had been sidelined until November 3rd. The Kraken have been off since Saturday, so Grubauer will be very well-rested when the team takes the ice tonight. Take Seattle. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-17-21 | Detroit v. Mississippi State -15.5 | Top | 64-77 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Detroit. This is Ben Howland's seventh season as Mississippi State's head coach, and his men are off to a great start this season. They blew out Montana by 37, and North Alabama by 26, while holding those two teams to 35 of 116 from the floor, combined (30.1%). This stellar defense is in sharp contrast to that displayed by Detroit in its first two games, as Wyoming hit 34 of 62, while Toledo converted 29 of 60 vs. the Titans (51.6% combined). The Bulldogs are an awesome 69-39-2 ATS since 2014 at home, here in Starkville. Meanwhile, the Titans are a woeful 3-27 SU and 6-22-2 ATS as an underdog (or PK) against good defensive teams that give up 66.5 (or less) points per game, including 0-7-1 ATS as an underdog of 14+ points. Lay the points with Miss State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-17-21 | Pelicans +8.5 v. Heat | Top | 98-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans + the points over Miami. The Pelicans welcomed Brandon Ingram back last weekend from a 7-game absence due to an ankle injury. Without Ingram in the lineup, New Orleans went 0-7 straight-up and 2-5 ATS. And it lost by almost 15 points per game. But with him back in the fold, they upset Memphis, 112-101, as a 3.5-point underdog, and then failed to cover by a mere half-point on Monday vs. the red-hot Wizards. Ingram has poured in 50 points in these last two games, and I expect a further upswing by New Orleans tonight against a Miami Heat team which, itself, is dealing with injury issues. Take New Orleans + the points. |
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11-17-21 | Cavs v. Nets -10.5 | Top | 99-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers. The up-and-down Nets were down last night, as they were blown out, 117-99, by Golden State. But Steve Nash's Nets have been somewhat predictable this season, as they're 1-6 ATS off a point spread win, but 6-1 ATS off a point spread loss. The Nets also fall into a strong 116-67 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home teams off home blowout losses. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-17-21 | Wizards +2 v. Hornets | Top | 87-97 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards + the points over Charlotte. Bradley Beal miss the past two days for bereavement, but will be back on the court tonight, as Washington looks to extend its win streak to six games. The Hornets are on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak. But Charlotte's a dreadful 5-23 ATS at home off 3 SU/ATS wins, including 1-15 ATS as a favorite of 10 points or less. Take Washington. |