Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-31-22 | Kings -2.5 v. Hornets | Top | 115-108 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings minus the points over Charlotte. On Saturday, the Hornets upset the defending NBA champion Warriors, 120-113. But off that huge upset win, as a 10-point underdog, we'll look for a major letdown tonight, as home underdogs have cashed just 39.7% since 1990 off an upset win over the defending champs. Lay the points with Sacramento. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-30-22 | Nuggets v. Lakers +4 | Top | 110-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers + the points over the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets won their previous game, 117-101, over the Utah Jazz. But off that blowout win, we'll fade Denver on the road, as it's an awful 5-24 ATS as a road favorite off a win by 9+ points. Take Los Angeles. |
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10-30-22 | Packers +11 v. Bills | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers + the points over Buffalo. Green Bay lost as a road favorite at Washington to fall to 3-4 on the season. And they've now been installed as a huge underdog at Buffalo. This is the first time in Rodgers' career that he's been under center when the Packers were getting 9+ points. But he's 5-2 ATS when getting more than 6 points. And Green Bay is a super 7-1 ATS with Rodgers as an underdog off an upset loss. And it's 5-0 ATS with Rodgers off 3 ATS losses, if Green Bay wasn't favored by more than 1 point. Those stats bode well for Green Bay. As does the fact that .375 (or better) NFL teams have cashed 66.1% as an underdog of more than 6 points off an upset road loss. Take the Packers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-30-22 | Maple Leafs -178 v. Ducks | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -178 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the Anaheim Ducks. To say Toronto's first west coast road swing of the season is not going as planned would be a huge understatement. The team many think can go all the way this season started out with a victory in Winnipeg, but has since lost three straight in Vegas, San Jose and Los Angeles. They end the trip tonight in Anaheim. The Ducks have had a roller coaster ride in the last 12 months. First, GM Pat Verbeek took a flame-thrower to the club and sold off many of its assets. Then this past summer he apparently decided that he wanted to go shopping to replace what he had lost. Whether that strategy works remains to be seen, but the early returns are not good. The Ducks currently sit at 1-6-1, with their lone victory coming against the Kraken in overtime. The Leafs are 19-7 in the last 26 meetings with the Ducks and the favorite is 8-1 in the last nine meetings. Anaheim is also 0-6 in its last six games vs. teams from the Atlantic Division. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-30-22 | Wolves v. Spurs +5.5 | Top | 98-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over the Minnesota Timberwolves. It's only Game 7, but this is the 3rd meeting already this season between these two clubs. And that is the earliest that two teams have played their 3rd meeting, from as far back as my database goes (1990) -- but possibly for the history of the NBA. The first two meetings were played in Minnesota, and the two teams split those, with the Spurs winning #1, and the T-Wolves prevailing in meeting #2. San Antonio is now 4-2 on the season, and is one of the surprising teams thus far -- especially since the Spurs had the lowest projected season win total, and longest Championship odds for any of the 30 teams. We'll grab the points with Gregg Popovich's crew, as San Antonio is 37-21 ATS at home when playing with revenge. Take the Spurs. |
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10-30-22 | Warriors v. Pistons UNDER 230 | Top | 114-128 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Golden State/Detroit game. After scoring 123+ points in four of their first five games, the Warriors' offense took a holiday yesterday, as they lost 120-113 (in overtime), and the game went under the total of 233.5. I'll look for another relatively-low scoring game today, as the Over/Under line is a tad inflated. The Under also falls into 166-112 and 60-35 Totals systems of mine. Take the Under. |
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10-30-22 | Knicks +4.5 v. Cavs | Top | 108-121 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks + the points over Cleveland. The Cavaliers pulled off an upset win, at Boston, in overtime, on Friday. But off that upset win, we'll fade the Cavaliers at home today. Cleveland has struggled mightily in the role of a favorite, as it's 54-86 ATS its last 140. And it also falls into a negative 48-85 ATS system of mine based on its upset win. Grab the points with the Knicks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-30-22 | Bears v. Cowboys -10 | Top | 29-49 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over the Chicago Bears. Last Monday, Chicago upset New England as an 8.5-point road underdog. Unfortunately for the Bears, road dogs of +8 (or more) points, off an upset win as an 8-point (or greater) underdog, have covered the spread in just 33% of their games since 1980. Dallas is 12-7 ATS vs. foes off an upset win, including a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS when favored by 4+ points. Meanwhile, Chicago is a wallet-breaking 14-23 ATS off an upset win, including 2-9 ATS when getting 4+ points. Take Dallas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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10-30-22 | Dolphins v. Lions OVER 51.5 | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Detroit/Miami game. After starting the season with four extremely high scoring games, the Lions have played back to back low scoring games. But those two games were on the road against Dallas and New England -- teams that play good defense. Today, Detroit is back at home, and it's gone OVER in 20 of 28 home games following a SU loss in a game which went under the total. Even better: Detroit is scoring 38.67 ppg at home, by itself. And its home games have averaged 76.33 ppg! Combine that with the fact that Miami's road games have averaged 59.67 ppg, and we have all the ammunition we need to take the OVER in this game. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-30-22 | Patriots -2.5 v. Jets | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the New York Jets. New York had a bittersweet victory last week in Denver. Yes, the Jets prevailed in a tough, defensive game, 16-9. But they lost RB Breece Hall for the season when he sustained a torn ACL. To make up for Hall's absence, the Jets traded for Jaguars' RB James Robinson. Meanwhile, the Patriots were shellacked, 33-14, Monday night, in an upset loss at the hands of the Chicago Bears. But off that upset loss, we'll lay the points with Bill Belichick's men today. For technical support, consider that New England is an awesome 21-0-1 ATS on the road in the regular season off a loss, if matched up against a foe off a win. That bodes well for the Patriots today. As does the fact that the Jets are a horrid 41-66-4 ATS at home vs. .500 (or worse) opponents. Finally, the Pats have won 12 straight in this AFC East division series (8-4 ATS). Take New England. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-29-22 | Hawks +5 v. Bucks | Top | 115-123 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks. This is a great match-up tonight in Milwaukee, as the 4-0 Bucks will take on the 4-1 Hawks. We'll go against the undefeated Bucks, as teams with a 4-0 SU record have covered Game 5s just 40.2% since 1990, including 2-14 ATS their last 16. Milwaukee's also 22-35 ATS vs. Atlanta, including 4-14 ATS when the Bucks were off back to back wins. And the Hawks also fall into a 313-230 ATS system of mine which plays on certain winning teams installed as an underdog. Grab the points with Atlanta. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-29-22 | 76ers -2.5 v. Bulls | Top | 114-109 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over the Chicago Bulls. The Sixers have dominated this series with 11 straight wins. And they're 12-3 ATS the last 15 meetings. Philadelphia is starting to right itself after an 0-3 SU/ATS start to the season. Last night, even without Joel Embiid, Philly blew out Toronto, 112-90. I look for the 76ers to continue to play well tonight. And with Embiid now upgraded to 'probable,' that's all i need to pull the trigger on the 76ers. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-29-22 | Michigan State v. Michigan -22 | Top | 7-29 | Push | 0 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Michigan State. Last season, Michigan lost just once in the regular season, and it was to Mel Tucker's Spartans, 37-33. Kenneth Walker rushed for 197 yards and 5 touchdowns in the game last season. But Walker is now wearing a Seahawks uniform, so MSU's ground attack has sputtered this season (3.6 ypr). Michigan's 10-4 ATS its last 14 home games vs. Big 10 Conference rivals, when laying 6+ points. And, in his NCAA career, coach Jim Harbaugh's teams have gone 13-5 ATS when favored by -6 (or more) points, and playing with revenge. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-29-22 | Hurricanes -167 v. Flyers | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Philadelphia Flyers. Are the Flyers really as good as their start to the season suggests? The answer to that remains to be seen, but you have to admire the 5-2 start that this team has had. Any success the Flyers have this season will be considered a victory for them as there are few expectations for this club. That's not the case with the Hurricanes. Carolina has been knocking on the door of a Conference championship for several years now, but hasn't been able to break through. However many people think that this is the team that will finally do it. Frederik Andersen is considered the #1 goalie for the 'Canes, but it's been back-up Antti Raanta who's been performing better. With Andersen having played last night, it will be Raanta's turn tonight. Despite their early success this season, the Flyers are 13-40 in their last 53 games vs. the Eastern Conference, and 17-36 their last 53 off a win. The favorite is also 5-1 in the last six meetings of these two. Take the 'Canes. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-29-22 | Wake Forest v. Louisville +3.5 | Top | 21-48 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals + the points over Wake Forest. The Cards come into this game off back to back double digit wins (and also back to back double-digit covers). And they also play with revenge from a 3-point loss to the Demon Deacons last season. We'll grab the points with the home dog, as it falls into a 90-41 ATS 'momentum' system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back covers by 10+ points. Even better: Wake Forest is a wallet-busting 22-38-2 ATS as a favorite vs. revenge-minded foes, including 1-11 ATS vs. foes that won their previous game by 7+ points. Take Louisville + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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10-29-22 | Miami-FL -2.5 v. Virginia | Top | 14-12 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Florida Hurricanes minus the points over Virginia. The Cavaliers upset Georgia Tech, 16-9, in their previous game, and are now 3-4 on the season. Miami is also 3-4 after getting blown out, 45-21, by Duke. Today, the 'Canes will turn to Jake Garcia as their starting quarterback after erstwhile starter, Tyler Van Dyke, was injured in last week's loss. Miami was actually favored by 10.5 points in that Duke game. It was a nightmarish performance all the way around, including a ghastly 8 turnovers (5 by Garcia). But I love Miami to bounce back today, as NCAA favorites have covered 62% over the last 43 years off a loss by 20+ points as a double-digit favorite, when they were playing, in their current game, an opponent off a SU win. And Virginia's covered just 33% as a home dog since 1980 vs. foes off an upset loss. Take Miami. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-29-22 | Ohio State v. Penn State UNDER 61 | Top | 44-31 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the UNDER in the Penn State/Ohio State game. Ohio State comes into this game scoring 49.5 ppg, and outscoring their foes by 34.71 ppg. But I expect a relatively-low scoring game this afternoon, as Penn State has gone UNDER 89% since 2013 against opponents that score more than 47.5 ppg, and UNDER 78% against opponents with a scoring margin greater than 32 ppg. And 71% of Nittany Lion home games have gone UNDER the total if the O/U line was greater than 55 points. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-29-22 | Ohio State v. Penn State +15.5 | Top | 44-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions + the points over Ohio State. The Buckeyes have had a creampuff schedule thus far. They've played six of their seven games at home. And their only road game was against Michigan State, which is having a down year. (The Buckeyes were favored by 27 on the road in that game.) So, this game will be the sternest test for Ohio State yet this season. It's on the road. And it's the first time this season that Ohio State wasn't favored by 17+ points. Penn State enters off a 45-17 blowout of Minnesota, and falls into several of my best 'momentum' systems, with records of 202-115, 323-216 and 119-52 ATS since 1980. Additionally, the Nitts are 44-23 ATS at home off a conference win, including 15-4 ATS if they won their previous game by 25+ points. Grab the points with the Nittany Lions. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-28-22 | Penguins -150 v. Canucks | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -150 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Penguins over the Vancouver Canucks. The Penguins' glory days may be fading fast what with players like Crosby, Malkin and Letang all reaching their upper 30s soon. So, the question is whether or not this team has one more big playoff run in them before those players (and others) are gone. Whatever happens, this is still a club with plenty of fire-power, as evidenced by the fact that in each of the Pens' victories they scored six goals. Of course, with a suspect defense and net-minding, the Pens can also have six goals scored against them almost as readily. They've lost two in a row coming into tonight but those were to the Flames and Oilers. Tonight, they'll step down in class with a match against Vancouver . The Canucks are a team in transition, and are 1-5-2 this season. Vancouver is 1-10 in its last 11 vs. Eastern teams and the favorite is 5-0 in the last five meetings of these two. Take the Pens. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-28-22 | Knicks +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 108-119 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks are the league's lone undefeated team, at 3-0. But we will go against Milwaukee tonight, as it's a horrible 18-42-2 ATS at home in the regular season off 3 or more wins when matched up against a winning team. Grab the points with New York. |
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10-28-22 | Cavs v. Celtics -6 | Top | 132-123 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Cleveland. We played against Boston in its last game, and easily got the $$$ when Chicago routed it, 120-102. But off that blowout loss, we'll lay the points with the Celtics tonight, as Boston has cashed 60% ATS in the regular season since 1990 as a favorite off an 18-point (or worse) upset loss. Lay the points. |
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10-28-22 | Pacers +5.5 v. Wizards | Top | 127-117 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over Washington. Indy was blown out, 124-109, by the Bulls on Wednesday. But I look for it to rebound tonight, as it's cashed 63% since 2011 off a loss by more than 12 points, when matched up against .400 (or better) foes. Take Indiana. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-28-22 | Hawks v. Pistons +6 | Top | 136-112 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Atlanta. These two teams met here, in Detroit, two nights ago, and the Pistons lost that game by five points. We'll take Detroit in this rematch, as it's 20-8 ATS at home off a SU home loss, including 9-1 ATS when priced from +5 to +7 points. And Atlanta is a horrid 6-16-1 ATS on the road off a road win. Take Detroit + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-27-22 | Maple Leafs -215 v. Sharks | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -215 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the San Jose Sharks. All Toronto hockey fans are wondering the same thing right now: will this be the season that the Maple Leafs finally break through to make it to their first Stanley Cup Finals since 1967 (they won it that year too). The Leafs feature the most prolific goal scorer in the East, if not the entire league. C Auston Matthews is the current favorite to win the Rocket Richard trophy after his 60-goal season in 2021-2022. The Leafs aren't exactly tearing it up so far as they've had some injuries early on. Perhaps a trip to San Jose to play the Sharks is what the doctor ordered. Even at 90% health, Toronto should be able to handle a Sharks team which is very much in transition and likely to finish near the bottom of the standings this season. They've already lost seven games this season -- most in the NHL. San Jose averaged 2.57 goals per game last season, third fewest behind Arizona (2.51) and Philly (2.56), and that's not likely to get better. The favorite is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings of these two. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-27-22 | Heat v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 110-123 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Miami. We played on the Heat last night (which was a rare 5* play), and were rewarded with a 21-point blowout victory. But we will fade Miami off that win, as it will be playing without rest against a rested Warriors club. And Golden State will be looking to make amends for its 134-105 blowout loss at the hands of the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday. The good news for Steph Curry & Co. is that .500 (or worse) NBA favorites have cashed 82% over the last 33 seasons if they lost their previous game on the road by more than 17 points, and their opponent was off a road win by more than 17 points. Additionally, the Warriors have cashed 64.7% as a favorite off a loss by 29+ points. Take Golden State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-27-22 | Ravens v. Bucs +105 | Top | 27-22 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Baltimore Ravens. The Bucs will surely be happy to be home on this Thursday, as they were blown out on the road last week by Carolina. And they also suffered an upset road loss two weeks ago, at Pittsburgh. The good news for Tampa tonight is that home teams have covered 65.2% over the last 43 seasons off back to back upset road defeats. Additionally, Tom Brady's teams have gone 25-1 ATS in the regular season off a loss, if they weren't favored by 7+ points, and their opponent was off a straight-up win. Take the Buccaneers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-27-22 | Clippers -6.5 v. Thunder | Top | 110-118 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Clippers had one of their worst games in the last couple of years when they lost outright, 108-94, to the Thunder, as a 5.5-point road favorite. They'll get a second bite at the apple tonight, in OKC, as the two teams will meet again in this rematch. We'll take the Clippers to redeem themselves, as Los Angeles is 36-20-1 ATS on the road off a straight-up loss, including 16-8 ATS when playing with revenge, and 10-2 ATS off a road game where it failed to cover the spread by 19.5+ points. Even better, the Clippers are 12-2 ATS when playing an opponent in back to back games, if they lost the first meeting, and were not favored by more than 7 in the next meeting. Meanwhile, OKC is 4-13 ATS at home when they also defeated their opponent in OKC's previous game. And it's 5-15 ATS off an upset home win, when priced from -2 to +8.5. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-26-22 | Heat +1.5 v. Blazers | Top | 119-98 | Win | 100 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat over the Portland Trail Blazers. The Heat are off to a 1-3 SU/0-4 ATS start after earning the #1 seed in the Eastern conference last year. Meanwhile, Portland is a super 4-0 following its 135-110 upset win over Denver (its 4th straight upset to start the season). We'll take Miami tonight, as it's 62-30 ATS off an upset loss, when matched up against an opponent off a SU win. And it's also 27-8 ATS on the road when on a 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streak. Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers are 18-44 ATS off a win over a division rival by more than 18 points, including 0-9 ATS if Portland wasn't favored by 4+ points in that previous game. Take Miami. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-26-22 | Rockets v. Jazz -5.5 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Houston. We played on Houston two nights ago, and got the $$$ when it defeated the Jazz, 114-108. We'll take Utah in this rematch, as the Jazz fall into a "right-back revenge" system of mine which is 107-62 ATS. Moreover, Houston is 26-44-2 ATS off a point spread win. Lay the points. |
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10-26-22 | Spurs v. Wolves -8.5 | Top | 122-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves minus the points over the San Antonio Spurs. The T-Wolves were blitzed by San Antonio on Monday, so they'll look for revenge tonight. Minnesota was favored by 8.5 points in that game. And that was San Antonio's 3rd straight upset win (it also upset Philly as a 13-point dog, and Indy as a 1.5 point dog). Unfortunately for the Spurs, NBA underdogs off back to back upset wins as 7-point dogs, have covered just 6 of 28 when playing a revenge-minded foe. Take Minnesota. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-26-22 | Hornets v. Knicks UNDER 226.5 | Top | 131-134 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Under in the New York/Charlotte game. The Hornets come into tonight's game having played 3 'overs' in a row. We'll look for a lower-scoring game on Wednesday, as the Under falls into a 57% and 58% Totals systems of mine. Also, Charlotte is 4-0 Under its last 4, and 20-9-2 Under its last 31 after playing 3 straight Overs. Take the Under. |
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10-25-22 | Avalanche v. Rangers -101 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -101 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Rangers over the Colorado Avalanche. In what could be a Stanley Cup Finals preview, the Avs visit Madison Square Garden for the first and only time this season. At 3-2-1, the Avs are off to a slower start than many people may have expected, but it's really not all that surprising. Team Captain Gabriel Landeskog underwent knee surgery earlier this month and will be out until sometime in January. It's a tough blow to a team trying to defend its championship, but it's better that it happened now as opposed to the Spring. Meanwhile the Rangers -- also 3-2-1 -- are healthy and ready to take it to the next level in the East. They lost in the Conference Finals to the Lightning last season but with Tampa finally looking like it's going to be in rebuilding mode, the torch may indeed be passed to the team from Manhattan. The addition in the off-season of veteran C Vincent Trocheck may be the last piece of the puzzle for this squad. The home team is 6-1 in the last seven meetings of these two clubs. Take the Rangers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-24-22 | Nuggets -3.5 v. Blazers | Top | 110-135 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Portland. The Nuggets pulled off an upset win yesterday in Los Angeles, and now return home to take on the Denver Nuggets. We'll lay the points with Denver, as NBA road favorites off back to back wins have covered 59% since 1990 vs. unrested division rivals off upset road wins. Lay the points with the Nuggets. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-24-22 | Jazz v. Rockets | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets over Utah. The Jazz have surprisingly opened the season with three straight upset wins. But I look for that streak to come to a halt tonight, down in Houston. Indeed, since 1990, winning teams off 3 upset wins have covered just 26.3% as underdogs vs. foes off a loss. And the Jazz are also a wallet-breaking 5-19-1 ATS their last 25 on the road when not laying 3 or more points. Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-24-22 | Celtics v. Bulls +5 | Top | 102-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls + the points over Boston. We played against Chicago on Saturday, and were rewarded with a 128-96 blowout win by the Cleveland Cavs. Tonight, we'll switch gears and play on Chicago, as it's cashed 73.9% in the regular season as underdogs off a loss by 32+ points. Grab the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-24-22 | Nets v. Grizzlies -1.5 | Top | 124-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Brooklyn. The Grizzlies were blown out, 137-96, in Dallas, on Saturday. But off that debacle, we'll lay the points with Memphis here, at home, tonight. The Grizzlies are a solid 22-8 ATS as a favorite off a loss by more than 20 points. Take Memphis. |
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10-24-22 | Raptors +3.5 v. Heat | Top | 98-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over the Miami Heat. These two teams met on Saturday here, in Miami. And the Heat edged the Raptors, 112-109, for their first win of the season. Unfortunately for Miami, losing teams have covered just 32.1% since 1990 in the 2nd of back to back home meetings, if they won the first of the two meetings, straight-up. Take Toronto + the points. |
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10-24-22 | Pacers v. 76ers -11.5 | Top | 106-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Indiana. The Sixers are off to a poor 0-3 start. But I love Philly to bounce back strong tonight, on Monday, as winless, double-digit favorites have covered 71% over the past 33 seasons vs. foes not off back-to-back losses. Lay the points with the Sixers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-23-22 | Suns +2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 112-95 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns over the Clippers. We played against Phoenix on Friday, and got the $$$ when the Trail Blazers upset them, 113-111, in overtime. Tonight, we'll back the Suns, as they're 52-19 ATS off an upset road loss. Take Phoenix. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-23-22 | Kings v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 125-130 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over the Sacramento Kings. We played against Golden State on Friday, and took Denver as our NBA Game of the Month. And the Nuggets pulled off the upset win. But we'll switch gears and take Golden State tonight, as it's 35-12 ATS at home vs. division rivals, if Golden State was off a straight-up loss. Take the Warriors. |
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10-23-22 | Jets v. Broncos +2 | Top | 16-9 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the New York Jets. Russell Wilson won't be on the field today vs. the Jets, as he's out with a hamstring injury. QB Brett Rypien will instead be under center for the Broncos. But Wilson was the 25th-ranked quarterback through the first six weeks, so his absence won't be devastating to the Broncos. We'll take Denver, as it's a stellar 52-19-3 ATS at home, priced from +4.5 to -2 points, including 10-0 ATS if it was off a division loss in its previous game. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-23-22 | Blazers v. Lakers -3 | Top | 106-104 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Portland. The Blazers have opened the season with back-to-back upset wins over the Kings and Suns, while the Lakers dropped their first two games to the Warriors and Clippers. We'll take Los Angeles as teams off back to back SU/ATS losses have covered 63% since 1990 vs. foes off back to back upset wins to start the season. Lay the points. |
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10-23-22 | Padres v. Phillies OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
At 2:37 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies 'over' the total. The Padres and Phillies played another dramatic game last night with the home team finally prevailing after a see-saw battle. The 10-6 win by the Phillies now gives them a commanding 3-1 lead in the series with a chance to seal the deal at home tonight before the venue switches back to San Diego. These two got the bats out early on Saturday and Game 4 went easily over the total. Although the starting pitching is significantly stronger this afternoon with Game 1 starters RH Yu Darvish and RH Zack Wheeler taking the mound, you can expect more of the same as both bullpens were heavily used last night in the slugfest. The Phillies called on six relievers after starter Bailey Falter lasted just 2/3 inning and San Diego sent five out from their bullpen after starter Mike Clevinger failed to record an out. Wheeler has struggled in day games this season, going 4-5 with a 4.53 ERA in nine afternoon starts vs. 8-2 and 2.05 in 17 starts under the lights. Take the 'over.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-23-22 | Giants v. Jaguars -3 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 45 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars minus the points over New York. The Jaguars come into this game off 3 SU/ATS losses, but have been installed as a home favorite vs. New York. The Giants are headed in the opposite direction, as they're 5-1 SU/ATS after their 2nd straight upset win -- a 24-20 victory over Baltimore. But off those two upsets, we'll fade New York at Jacksonville on Sunday. Indeed, winning teams off back-to-back upset wins have covered just 39.2% on the road vs. losing teams over the last 40+ years. And the Giants are a poor 4-8 ATS off back to back upset wins vs. a foe off a SU loss. Finally, over the last 40+ years, NFL teams off 3 SU/ATS losses have covered 69.5% vs. foes off 3 SU/ATS wins if our play-on team (here, Jacksonville), was not getting more than 4 points. Lay the points with the Jaguars. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-23-22 | Lions +6.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 6-24 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Dallas. Dak Prescott will make his return this afternoon for the Cowboys, but we'll still go against them this afternoon. Detroit had last week off following a shutout loss, 29-0, at the hands of New England. The Lions are now 1-4, but rested underdogs of +6 (or more) points, with a win percentage < .333, have covered 64.5% over the past 43 years. And Detroit has gone 16-0-1 ATS after losing by more than 26 points in their previous game, if they were installed as an underdog of 6+ points in their current game. Take Detroit. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-23-22 | Browns +7 v. Ravens | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens have not covered the spread in any of their three previous games, and are 1-8 ATS when favored by more than 3 points, dating back to last season. This afternoon, they'll welcome division rival, Cleveland, to M&T Bank Stadium. We'll grab the points with the Browns, as AFC North division teams have covered 64.8% if they were getting 6+ points against a division foe not off a SU/ATS win. Additionally, the road team has gone 27-18-1 ATS in this rivalry, including 5-0 ATS vs. a foe off an upset loss. Take Cleveland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-22-22 | Washington v. California +7.5 | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 40 h 12 m | Show |
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears + the points over Washington. The Bears come into this game off back to back SU/ATS losses to Washington State and Colorado. But both of those games were on the road (where Cal is 0-3 on the season). At home, it's been a different story, as California is 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS. The Bears play this game with revenge from a 31-24 loss in Seattle last season. And Washington is an awful 0-7 ATS its last seven (and 13-31-1 ATS its last 45) as road favorites vs. revenge-minded conference foes, if the Huskies were off a win, and owned a winning record. Grab the points with California. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-22-22 | Cavs -1.5 v. Bulls | Top | 128-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers over the Chicago Bulls. The Cavaliers have a big advantage tonight, in terms of rest. Cleveland has had the last 2 days off, while Chicago had to play last night in Washington, against the Wizards. Over the last 33 seasons, rested NBA teams have covered 70.2% in their 2nd game of the season, if their opponent was unrested, and our rested team was not favored by more than 3 points. Take Cleveland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-22-22 | Pittsburgh v. Louisville UNDER 55.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 38 h 33 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Louisville/Pittsburgh game. The Cardinals have scored 33+ points in each of their last three games. But the Panthers have not allowed more than 31 points in regulation in any of their six games this season. I look for a relatively-low scoring game here, as Louisville has gone under in 9 of 10 games after scoring 31+ points in three (or more) games in a row. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-22-22 | Mississippi State v. Alabama UNDER 61.5 | Top | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 37 h 38 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Alabama/Mississippi State game. The Crimson Tide lost last week to the Tennessee Volunteers, 52-49, as a 9-point favorite. Off that horrible game, we'll look for a much better effort here by Nick Saban's troops -- and especially on the defensive end. Indeed, over the last nine years, Alabama is 6-0 SU off a loss, and all six games have gone UNDER the total, as the Tide held those six foes to 13, 0, 6, 7, 16 and 9 points (8.5 ppg). Additionally, Alabama is 7-0 Under its last 7 following a game that went Over the total. Meanwhile, Mississippi State also comes into this game off an upset defeat, 27-17, at the hands of Kentucky. And the Bulldogs have gone UNDER 14 of 15 following a straight-up loss, if they failed to cover the spread by 9+ points in their previous game. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-22-22 | Fresno State v. New Mexico +11 | Top | 41-9 | Loss | -115 | 36 h 6 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Fresno State. The Bulldogs upset San Jose State, 17-10, last week as a 7-point home dog, and they covered the spread for the first time all season, after an 0-5 ATS start to the season. Now, Fresno has been installed as a big road favorite in Albuquerque. But I look for a reversion to form for Fresno, as road favorites have covered just 33% over the last 42 years off an upset win, if they were on a 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streak prior to that upset victory. Additionally, the Lobos are 13-2 ATS against foes that won outright as a 7-point (or greater) underdog in their previous game. Take New Mexico. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-22-22 | Spurs v. 76ers -12.5 | Top | 114-105 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over San Antone. The Spurs pulled off an upset win last night against the Indiana Pacers, while Philly lost its home opener to Milwaukee in its previous game. The Sixers will get a 2nd crack at the apple here, at home, on Saturday evening. We'll lay the points with Philly, as double-digit home favorites have covered 75% since 1990 off a loss in their home opener when matched up against a foe off a SU win. Take the 76ers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-22-22 | UCLA v. Oregon -6 | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 33 h 13 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over UCLA. Both of these teams are undefeated (3-0) in Pac-12 conference play, though UCLA owns the better overall record, at 6-0 (compared to Oregon's 5-1). In the Bruins' last game, they upset Utah, 42-32, as a 3-point home underdog. I played on UCLA in that game, but will go against Chip Kelly's men on this Saturday, as undefeated Pac-12 Conference teams are 14-27-1 ATS off an upset conference win. Even worse for the Bruins: they're 15-36-1 ATS off back to back wins, including 1-7 ATS as an underdog off a double-digit win. And the Ducks are 26-9-1 ATS vs. conference foes, if the Ducks owned a worse season W/L record, and were not getting 4+ points. Lay the points with Oregon. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-22-22 | North Texas v. UTSA -10 | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -107 | 33 h 11 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our Conference USA Game of the Month is on the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners minus the points over North Texas. The Mean Green come into this game off back to back blowout wins over Florida Atlantic (45-28) and Louisiana Tech (47-27). They've now been installed as an underdog at UTSA, which doesn't bode well for the Mean Green. Indeed, underdogs are a horrible 13-45 ATS after back to back games where they scored more than 40 points, including 0-10 ATS their last 10 when playing a revenge-minded foe. With the Roadrunners seeking revenge from a 22-point loss in Denton last season, we'll lay the points with UTSA. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-22-22 | Marshall +12.5 v. James Madison | Top | 26-12 | Win | 100 | 33 h 7 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over James Madison. The Dukes suffered their first loss of the season last week following a 5-0 SU/ATS start. We'll go against James Madison on Saturday, as double-digit favorites off a SU/ATS loss have covered just 63 of 169 if that loss was their first of the season after a 5-0 (or better) start. Take Marshall + the points. |
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10-22-22 | Florida International v. Charlotte OVER 63.5 | Top | 34-15 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 4 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Florida International/Charlotte game. Last week, we played on the Charlotte 49ers and UAB under the total as our Conference USA game of the Year. We were rewarded with a 54-point game which went under the total by 11 points. But here, we'll look for a return to form by Charlotte, as it had gone over the total in each of its five games previous to last week. Take Charlotte/Florida International Over. |
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10-22-22 | Memphis v. Tulane UNDER 56 | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 2 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulane/Memphis game to go Under the total. The Tigers come into this game off back to back high-scoring games. Memphis lost, 47-45, last week, and 33-32 the game before that. But the Tigers have gone under the total 17-8 off back to back 60-point games. Meanwhile, Tulane also played a high-scoring game last week, as it routed South Florida, 45-31. But the Green Wave have gone under 18-7 after a game which went over the total, if the line in the current game was less than 58 points. Take the Under. |
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10-22-22 | Iowa v. Ohio State -28.5 | Top | 10-54 | Win | 100 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Iowa. Our strongest football play so far this year was on the Ohio State Buckeyes, Sept. 17, vs. Toledo. The Bucks were averaging just 33 ppg, and were 0-2 ATS on the season going into that contest. But Ohio State erupted for 77 points, and that was a harbinger of things to come. Since that game, Ohio State has scored 52, 49, and 49 points. And they're 3-0-1 ATS their last four games. I won't step in front of this freight train, as NCAA teams have covered 63.3% of their home games since 1980 vs. conference foes, if they scored 49+ points in each of their three previous games, and did not fail to cover the spread in any of those three games. Lay the points with the Buckeyes. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-21-22 | Suns v. Blazers +5 | Top | 111-113 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Phoenix. The Trail Blazers are a solid 18-3 SU and 15-6 ATS in their home openers, including a perfect 5-0 ATS vs. an opponent off a straight-up win. Moreover, home dogs of +2.5 (or more) points have cashed 67% in their home openers since 1990 if they were not unrested, and their opponent was off a home win. Grab the points with the Trail Blazers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-21-22 | Nuggets +6 v. Warriors | Top | 128-123 | Win | 100 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over Golden State. The Warriors opened up the season with a blowout win over LeBron James' Lakers, 123-109. And they'll look to make it two-in-a-row tonight against a team many feel will win the title. The Nuggets are healthy this year, with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter, Jr. back on the court. Unfortunately, their presence didn't lead to a good result in Game 1, as Denver was shellacked by the Utah Jazz, 123-102. But off that embarrassing loss, we'll take Denver to bounce back tonight. Indeed, the Nuggets are 28-11 ATS in the regular season off a loss by 15+ points, if their opponent was off a win by 7+ points. Even better: defending NBA champs -- who generally receive their championship rings in the opening game -- often have letdowns in Game 2, and are a soft 2-11 ATS in their 2nd game of the season if they were playing an opponent not off a SU/ATS win. Take Denver + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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10-21-22 | Celtics v. Heat +2.5 | Top | 111-104 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Boston Celtics. Miami was upset, 116-108, by the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday. We'll take the Heat to bounce back on Friday, as they're 44-13 ATS vs. conference rivals, if the Heat were off an upset loss, and their opponent was off a win. Take Miami. |
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10-21-22 | Raptors v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Toronto. The Nets lost their first home game of the season, 130-108, to the New Orleans Pelicans. Brooklyn is back at home for Game 2, and NBA home teams that were upset in their home opener typically do much better in their 2nd home game of the season, including 64.2% since 1990 vs. an opponent off a SU/ATS win. With Toronto in off a 108-105 victory over Cleveland, as a 2-point home favorite, we'll fade Toronto tonight, and lay the points with Brooklyn. |
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10-20-22 | Saints v. Cardinals -2 | Top | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over New Orleans. The Saints are 2-4 SU/ATS this season, and have been outscored by 2.83 ppg, and have failed to cover the spread by an average of 3.33 ppg. This will be New Orleans' 3rd road game of the season, and it's 0-2 ATS in the first two, with ATS losses to the Falcons and Panthers. The Cardinals are also 2-4 straight-up, after being upset last week by the Seattle Seahawks. And that was Arizona's 2nd straight defeat, as it also fell to the 6-0 Philadelphia Eagles, 20-17, two weeks ago. But off those two losses, we'll step in and take Kliff Kingsbury's men on Thursday night. For technical support, consider that the Cardinals are a sensational 36-13 ATS at home off back to back losses, if its opponent had a negative scoring margin. Take Arizona. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-18-22 | Phillies v. Padres -121 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -121 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
At 8:00 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Philadelphia Phillies. The two unlikeliest of opponents will meet in the NLCS as Wild Card teams the Phillies and Padres clash in a best-of-seven affair for a trip to the World Series. It would've been almost impossible to imagine that the Padres would have home field advantage in the Championship Series but yet here we are at Petco Park for Game 1. The Padres are also fortunate in that things lined up for their veteran RH ace, Yu Darvish to start things off on five days of rest. Darvish has done little wrong in his two 2022 post-season starts so far, going 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA with 11 strikeouts and two walks in 12 innings against the Mets and Dodgers. In two starts vs. the Phils during the regular season, Darvish allowed three runs in 13 innings (a 2.08 ERA) with 14 strikeouts and one walk. Anything close to that tonight in his pitcher-friendly home park should get the job done. The Padres are 18-3 in their last 21 games immediately following one or more off-days. And Darvish's teams are 29-13 when he's pitched with an extra day or two of rest. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-17-22 | Broncos +5 v. Chargers | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers. The Broncos are offensively-challenged. They scored just nine points in last week's 12-9 loss to the Indianapolis Colts, and are averaging just 15.0 ppg this season. In contrast, the Chargers enter tonight's game with a 24.4 ppg offensive average, and have tallied 34 and 30 points the past two weeks. This vast offensive difference (LA is 9.4 ppg better) will keep a lot of gamblers off Denver, but not me. Indeed, at Game 6 forward, NFL road teams that average 15 (or less) points per game, and at least 9.4 ppg less than their opponent, have gone 119-78-5 ATS, including 65-35-4 ATS if their opponent was off a SU/ATS win. And if it's a division game, then our 65-35-4 stat zooms to 28-9-1 ATS. That bodes well for Denver in this game. As does the fact that AFC West division teams with a losing record have gone 141-83 ATS on the road vs. division rivals, if our road team was not favored by more than 3 points. Finally, Denver is an awesome 11-0 ATS following games it failed to score 13+ points, if it was an underdog of 4+ points in the current game, and its opponent was off a win. Take the Broncos. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles -6 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over the Dallas Cowboys. The Eagles had a winning record last season, yet lost both games to Dallas, 51-26 and 41-21. But Philly now falls into several double-revenge systems of mine that have records of 53-28, 72-51 and 43-23 ATS. Additionally, dating back to 1989, undefeated teams (like Philly) have cashed 63.7% at home off a point spread loss if they weren’t favored by 9+ points in their current game. Take the Eagles minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-16-22 | Bills v. Chiefs +3 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs + the points over Buffalo. The Bills blew out Pittsburgh last week, 38-3, to move to 4-1 this season. KC is also 4-1 after outlasting the Raiders, 30-29. The Chiefs are a super 23-9 their last 32 games, and are 10-1 SU their last 11 at home. Yet they've been installed as a home underdog vs. Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. We'll grab the points with the Chiefs, as NFL teams that have won at least 23 of their previous 32 games, have gone 20-8 ATS when not laying more than 1 point, including a perfect 9-0 ATS if their opponent was off a win by 17+ points. Take KC. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-16-22 | Cardinals v. Seahawks UNDER 51.5 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Arizona/Seattle game. The Cardinals have reeled off four straight Unders after last week's 20-17 loss to the Eagles went under the total by 10.5 points. And Arizona is also 15-4-1 UNDER on the road the past 3 seasons, including 8-0 Under when priced from -7 to +2.5 points. It's true that Seattle surrendered 39 points to the Saints last week, and 45 to Detroit two games back. But the Seahawks have gone under 7 of 8 after allowing 28+ points in their two previous games. And competitively-priced NFC West division games, with point spreads of 3 points or less, have gone Under 45-18-3. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-16-22 | Panthers v. Rams OVER 40.5 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Los Angeles Rams/Carolina Panthers game. After playing two of the NFL's best defenses the past two week (49ers, Cowboys), the Rams will be ecstatic to go up against a Panthers defense which has allowed 37 and 26 points its two previous games. Los Angeles has gone Over the total 60.3% off three straight unders. Meanwhile, the Panthers are 40-22 Over as road underdogs, including 11-0 Over when the OU Line was between 40 and 42.5 points. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-16-22 | Cardinals -2 v. Seahawks | Top | 9-19 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over Seattle. The Seahawks' defense is giving up 30.8 ppg, which is the 2nd-worst in the NFL. They’ve been installed as a home dog this Sunday. But NFL home underdogs of +2 (or more) points have covered just 40.3%, at Game 5 forward, if they were giving up more than 30 points. Take Arizona minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-16-22 | Jets v. Packers -7 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -115 | 54 h 26 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over the New York Jets. The Flyboys pulled off their 2nd straight upset last week when they blew out division rival, Miami, 40-17. And they went into Pittsburgh the previous week and upset the Steelers, 24-20. Now, they'll try to make it three-upsets-in-a-row when they travel to Lambeau Field to take on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Unfortunately for New York, Green Bay's coming into this game off an upset loss to the New York Giants, 27-22, in London. Green Bay's 24-11 ATS with Rodgers under center off an upset loss, including 5-1 ATS vs. a foe off an upset win. Lay the points with the Packers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-16-22 | Bengals v. Saints OVER 43 | Top | 30-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Cincinnati/New Orleans game. Last week, the Saints scored 39 points in a 39-32 victory over Seattle. And their game went over the total by 26 points. We'll look for another high-scoring game on Sunday, as the Saints are 13-5 Over the total if they went Over their previous game. And they're 58-42 Over as home underdogs. Take the Over. |
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10-16-22 | Jaguars v. Colts OVER 41 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Indianapolis/Jacksonville game. The first meeting this season was a low-scoring game, as the Jaguars won 24-0. And that was the 4th straight meeting between these two division rivals that went under the total. Also, each of these teams went under the total last week. The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game here. But I'll take the Over, as NFL division games have gone Over the total 55% of the time if both teams went Under their previous game; the season's previous meeting went Under, as well as the teams' last 3 meetings overall. Take the Over. |
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10-16-22 | Bucs v. Steelers +10 | Top | 18-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers + the points over Tampa Bay. The Steelers were blown out by 35 points last week in Kenny Pickett's first start, which wasn't wholly unexpected. But off that debacle, I'll grab the points with the Men of Steel, as NFL teams that scored less than 7 points, and lost by 35+ points have covered 63.9% since 1990. Take Pittsburgh. |
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10-16-22 | Bengals -2.5 v. Saints | Top | 30-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over New Orleans. Cincinnati lost on the road last week to Baltimore, and it's back on the road this week. It's been installed as a road favorite vs. the Saints, who won last week, 39-32, vs. Seattle. The good news for Joe Burrow & Co. is that road favorites are 65.2% ATS off a road loss, if matched up against a foe off a win. Take Cincinnati. |
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10-15-22 | Dodgers -115 v. Padres | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Diego Padres. The Dodgers had an historic season, as they outscored their foes by 334 runs in the regular season -- tied for 3rd in the modern era (behind the 1939 Yankees and 1927 Yankees). Yet, after its 2-1 defeat last night, Los Angeles finds itself 1 loss away from an ignominious end to an otherwise great season. Tonight, Los Angeles will hand the ball to southpaw Tyler Anderson, while San Diego will go with its ace, Joe Musgrove. But even though Musgrove has been an All Star, and has thrown a no-hitter, he's never notched a win against the Dodgers. He's made nine starts for the Pirates and Padres vs. LA, but is 0-6 in those nine starts (his teams are 2-7), with a 4.59 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Anderson has had much better success for San Diego, as he's gone 6-3 in 14 starts, with an ERA of 2.46, and a WHIP of 1.06. With LA a super 31-13 following a game where it scored less than 2 runs, we'll take Los Angeles tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-22 | North Carolina v. Duke +7.5 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over North Carolina. The Blue Devils were upset in overtime, 23-20, by Georgia Tech last week to fall to 4-2 on the season. They'll now welcome their rival, North Carolina, to Durham, and have been installed as a home underdog. UNC is 5-1 this year following its upset win at Miami last Saturday. Unfortunately for Carolina, favorites off an upset win have covered just 32% over the last 43 years when playing a .666 (or better) conference foe off an upset loss. Take Duke + the points. |
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10-15-22 | USC v. Utah -3.5 | Top | 42-43 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes minus the points over Southern Cal. The Utes were upset on the road last week by UCLA, 42-32. And that was Utah's 2nd loss on the season. But both losses were away from home; here, in Salt Lake City, Utah is 19-1 SU its last 20 vs. Division 1 FBS teams, and 14-6 ATS. USC is now 6-0 after its blowout of Washington State. But undefeated teams, with a 6-0 (or better) record, are a soft 33% as underdogs of more than 3 points against foes off an upset loss. Additionally, Utah is 12-4 ATS off an upset loss when matched up against a foe off a double-digit win. And USC is a poor 26-48-1 ATS on the road off a win. Take the Utes. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-22 | Clemson v. Florida State +4 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 9 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over Clemson. The Seminoles lost by 10 points to Clemson last season, so they play with revenge on Saturday night vs. the undefeated Tigers. FSU's been installed as a home underdog in this ACC contest. And the Seminoles have covered 67% as revenge-minded home dogs since 1980 vs. conference rivals. Even better: Florida State lost on the road, 19-17, to NC State last week, which was its second straight loss. But the Seminoles are 41-23-3 ATS off a SU road loss. And single-digit ACC home dogs, off back to back losses, are a super 75% ATS vs. conference rivals off back to back wins. Grab the points with Florida State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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10-15-22 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky +4 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over Mississippi State. QB Will Levis was injured in Kentucky's 22-19 loss at Mississippi two weeks ago, and missed last week's home loss to South Carolina. But Levis has been upgraded to 'probable' for this game. The Wildcats have a solid defense, and are giving up just 16.3 ppg. And that's key, as .666 (or better) home underdogs off back to back losses, that give up 20.5 (or less) points per game, have covered 64.7% since 1980. Take Kentucky + the points. |
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10-15-22 | Arizona v. Washington UNDER 72 | Top | 39-49 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Washington/Arizona game. The Huskies lost at Arizona State, 45-38, last Saturday. And that game total of 83 points was the most for a Huskies conference game since it beat California, 66-27, in 2016. We'll look for a much lower-scoring game this evening, as Pac-12 teams have gone under 59% in conference games after a conference game that totaled more than 77 points. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-22 | Astros v. Mariners -101 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
At 4:07 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Houston Astros. After an historic loss in Game 1, one had to wonder if the Mariners would get blown out in Game 2 in Houston on Thursday. But they fought hard, and even held a 2-1 lead going into the bottom of the sixth inning before succumbing by a 4-2 margin. So rather than looking at the glass as half-empty at this point, Seattle's takeaway from its 0-2 deficit should be that it could just as easily be up 2-0 in this series. The Mariners will go with one of their many young stars on the mound today in 24-year-old RH rookie George Kirby. Kirby finished the regular season 8-5 with a 3.39 ERA in 25 starts covering 135 innings. This will be Kirby's first post-season start (he had a relief appearance in the Wild Card series against the Blue Jays) but all indications are that he's up for the challenge. Kirby's only start vs. the Astros in the regular season was decent -- two runs on four hits in four innings with seven strikeouts and one walk. Seattle is 11-4 in Kirby's last 15 starts since the beginning of July. And it's 47-38 (but +23.7 net games) off back to back losses. Take the Mariners. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-22 | Texas State v. Troy -16 | Top | 14-17 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 54 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month is on the Troy Trojans minus the points over Texas State. The Bobcats pulled off a major upset last week, as a 20-point home underdog against Appalachian State. Texas State was outgained by 102 yards, yet stunned the Mountaineers, 36-24. But off that upset win, we'll look for a letdown at Troy on Saturday afternoon. Indeed, Sun Belt underdogs of more than 3 points have cashed just 12 of 49 games vs. conference foes off a straight-up win. The Trojans come into this game on a 3-game win streak (and 4-game ATS win streak). Unfortunately for the Bobcats, they're 9-18 ATS on the road vs. foes off a win, including 0-5 ATS their last five. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-22 | Charlotte v. UAB UNDER 63.5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 33 h 53 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our Conference USA Total of the Year is on the UNDER in the Charlotte/UAB game. Charlotte has the worst defense in college football, as it's giving up 46.3 ppg. Not surprisingly, its last five games have all sailed over the total. And each of its last four games have totaled more than 75 points. But this horrendous defense has led to our Over/Under line being a bit inflated here. If one throws out UAB's first game - a 59-0 win against FCS foe Alabama A&M - then its four games against Division 1 FBS teams have averaged 49.5 ppg. UAB comes into this game off a 27-point blowout win over Middle Tenn. And UAB has gone 'under' the total 16 of 24 following a double-digit win. The Under also falls into a Totals system of mine which has cashed 64.5%. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-22 | NC State v. Syracuse -3 | Top | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 33 h 52 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange minus the points over NC State. In a battle of top 20-ranked clubs, we'll lay the points with the undefeated home team. Syracuse has stormed out to a 5-0 record. And it's also 4-1 ATS. On Saturday, it will welcome a Wolfpack squad which is 5-1 SU, but just 2-4 ATS after dropping its 3rd straight "in Vegas" last weekend. This will be the Wolfpack's 3rd road game of the season. It lost ATS its first two. And it's a wallet-breaking 8-33-2 ATS on the road when unrested, and priced from +7.5 to -7.5 points. Take the Orange. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-22 | Oklahoma State v. TCU -3.5 | Top | 40-43 | Loss | -120 | 33 h 51 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs minus the points over Oklahoma State. TCU comes into this game with an unblemished 5-0 record. And it's also an undefeated 4-0-1 ATS. That bodes well for it on Saturday, as over the last 42 years, at Game 6 forward, NCAA teams that were undefeated both SU and ATS have covered the spread 64% of the time, if they weren't favored by 7+ points, and were playing at home, or on a neutral field. Additionally, the home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Last year, the Cowboys crushed the Frogs, 63-17. But TCU is a solid 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS when playing with revenge, if it was favored at home, and owned an .800 (or better) win percentage. Take TCU. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-22 | Northern Illinois v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 66 | Top | 39-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Northern Illinois/Eastern Michigan game. The Huskies have played all six of their games over the total this season, including their last two games that each totaled > 80 points, which has led to an inflated over/under line for this contest. Northern Illinois has gone under the total 70% after back to back games where 70+ points were scored. We'll look for a relatively-low scoring game here. Take the Under. |
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10-15-22 | Ohio v. Western Michigan UNDER 60 | Top | 33-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Ohio/Western Michigan game. Both of these teams come into this afternoon's game off high-scoring contests. The Bobcats put up 55 points last week in a 55-34 blowout of Akron, while Western Michigan lost, 45-23, at home to Eastern Michigan. The Broncos are 12-6 Under after allowing 40+ points, while Ohio is 16-8 Under after scoring 40+ points. Take the Under. |
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10-15-22 | Braves -119 v. Phillies | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Braves have their backs against the wall today, as they must win, or their season will be over. The good news is that their pitcher, Charlie Morton, has been exceptional in his career in elimination games. Morton is 4-0 with a 0.95 ERA in such games. That bodes well for Atlanta this afternoon. Noah Syndergaard will get the start for Philly, and this will be just his 3rd start over the last five weeks. He was relegated to the bullpen in September following a 4-game stretch where his ERA was 6.14 and his WHIP was 1.50 over that four starts. But Syndergaard was tabbed for this start over Bailey Falter, who gave up 6 runs over 3 2/3 innings in his last start vs. Atlanta. The Braves already bounced back from a loss in this series to win Game 2, and they're now 41-19 (+14.2 net games) off a loss this season. Take the Braves to level this series at 2 games apiece. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-22 | Dodgers -115 v. Padres | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
At 8:37 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Diego Padres. The Dodgers took Game 1 of the NLDS by a 5-3 score and then the Padres responded in kind, taking a 5-3 decision on Wednesday behind Yu Darvish to even this series at 1-1. Now the series switches to San Diego for Games 3 and 4. The Padres are taking a calculated risk by starting LH Blake Snell tonight instead of RH Joe Musgrove. That's the same order they used in the three games against the Mets, but almost anyone would agree that Musgrove is a betting pitcher than Snell, who went 8-10 in 24 starts in a season that had its share of injuries. The Padres are basically gambling that they can win tonight and then have Musgrove available to close this series out in a Game 4 scenario. The problem is that in three starts vs. L.A. this season, Snell went 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA. The Dodgers will go with RH Tony Gonsolin who is a leading candidate for NL Cy Young with a 16-1 record and 2.14 ERA in 24 starts. L.A. is 4-1 in the last five meetings in San Diego, and 85-40 its last 125 vs. lefties. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-22 | Navy v. SMU -12.5 | Top | 34-40 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs minus the points over Navy. The Mustangs lost at Central Florida, 41-19, last week. And that was their third straight loss, and 4th straight ATS defeat. Meanwhile, Navy pulled off a big upset win against Tulsa, 53-21, as a 4.5-point home dog. We'll lay the points with SMU tonight, as conference favorites of -3 (or more) points, on a 4-game ATS losing streak, have covered 75.8% since 1980 vs. foes on a 3-game ATS win streak, if their foe was off a SU win the previous week. Moreover, SMU is a solid 29-18 ATS in Conference games off back to back losses, if it was also on a 2-game ATS losing streak. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-13-22 | Washington Commanders -105 v. Bears | Top | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders over the Chicago Bears. Washington has lost its last four games, including a heartbreaking 21-17 defeat last week vs. Tennessee. The Commanders had the ball first-and-goal on the Titans' 1-yard line, with less than a half-minute to go in the game. But they couldn't get the ball into the end zone and the game ended with an interception on the 3rd down play. The Bears also lost last week to the Vikings, 29-22, but covered the 8.5-point spread. We'll take Washington in this match-up, as road teams have covered the spread 62% since 2005 if they were off back to back losses, not getting more than 3 points, and were playing a non-division foe off an ATS win. Even better: the Commanders are 9-0 ATS their last nine meetings vs. the Bears in Chicago. Take Washington. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-12-22 | UL-Lafayette v. Marshall -10 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd minus the points over Louisiana. The Rajin' Cajuns come into tonight's game off 3 straight losses, but they covered the spread in their most recent game -- a 20-17 home loss to South Alabama. Meanwhile, Marshall defeated Gardner Webb, 28-7, to start October, but failed to cover the 31.5-point spread. And that was the Thundering Herd's third straight ATS defeat. Marshall's been installed as a double-digit favorite tonight. And NCAA home teams, priced from -7 to -25 points, have been solid (108-75-3 ATS) off three straight ATS losses when matched up against foes off a point spread win. Lay the points with Marshall. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-11-22 | Guardians v. Yankees -198 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:37 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Cleveland Guardians. Cleveland's pitching was on display when it successfully swept the Tampa Bay Rays at home in two games to advance to the ALDS. In those two games, the Rays managed just one total run on seven hits -- and that was in 24 innings as Game 2 went 15 before the Guardians ended it with a walk-off. But any dreams by fans that they might be able to do the same thing in this series could be quickly dashed. The Yankees have a more potent offense than that of Tampa and they will open up this series in the Bronx where they've gone 57-24 this season while scoring a league-leading 419 runs (5.17 runs per game). Although you could argue that Nestor Cortes has been their best starter, the Yanks will open up with #1 RH Gerrit Cole. The 32-year-old had another outstanding season, going 13-8 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 33 starts covering 200 2/3 innings. The Guardians are 1-5 in the last six meetings and 23-49 in the last 72 match-ups at Yankee Stadium. And they're a woeful 8-16 (minus 13.4 net games) off a shutout win. Finally, New York's 49-11 +18.5 net games) as a home favorite of -200+. Take the Yankees. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-11-22 | Mariners v. Astros -210 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
At 3:37 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Seattle Mariners. In the upset of the post-season so far -- with the Padres being the runners-up -- the Mariners swept past the Blue Jays in Toronto to now face their division rvals in the ALDS. But now the hill gets much steeper as they face the defending AL champs. But there's a big difference between this season's version of the 'Stros and the one from 2021. Last year, as Houston was getting ready to begin the playoffs, it was doing so without veteran RH Justin Verlander. Twelve months later and Verlander is not only back, but he's a shoe-in for the AL Cy Young, having gone 18-4 with a league-leading 1.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 28 starts, covering 175 innings. And Verlander's post-season numbers -- while not at that level -- are pretty darn good (14-11; 3.40 in 31 games). But most important is this: Houston is 11-1 in Verlander's last 12 starts vs. Seattle, while the Mariners are 3-4 in Logan Gilbert's seven starts vs. Houston. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-09-22 | Padres +123 v. Mets | Top | 6-0 | Win | 123 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, ours selection is on the San Diego Padres over the New York Mets. With their backs against the proverbial wall on Saturday night at home, the Mets won Game 2. With all the talk about the Mets' starting pitching, San Diego's rotation has matched them so far -- and then some. And it must feel pretty good to have a guy as good as Joe Musgrove ready to go in your #3 position. The 29-year-old RH gets the ball tonight for his eighth post-season appearance (and first post-season start ever. Many would argue that he's the best pitcher on the team, with a no-hitter on his resume last season and a darn good campaign in 2022 as well. In 30 starts this season, Musgrove went 10-7 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, with 184 strikeouts in 181 innings. In 14 road starts this season, Musgrove was 7-3 with a 3.01 ERA. The Padres also went 6-3 in Musgrove's last nine regular season starts going back to August 20. Despite the loss in Game 2, the Padres are 5-2 in the last seven meetings going back to June 7. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-09-22 | Cowboys v. Rams -5 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 34 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over Dallas. Last week, the Rams were throttled by the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football, 24-9. And that continued coach Sean McVay's point spread failures following back-to-back wins, as the Rams are now 11-28 ATS in that situation. But the Rams excel following a straight-up loss, as they're 14-6 SU and 13-6-1 ATS in those games. Even better: defending Super Bowl champs have covered 72% following a road game where they failed to cover the spread by more than 10 points. And Dallas is 2-9 ATS as a road underdog of more than 4 points off back to back ATS wins. Lay the points with Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-09-22 | 49ers v. Panthers OVER 38.5 | Top | 37-15 | Win | 100 | 58 h 11 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the San Francisco/Carolina game. Both of these teams have been playing low-scoring games this season. San Francisco's 4 games have gone under the total by 11.87 ppg, while Carolina's 4 games have gone under by 1.62 ppg. This game is a technical play for me, as it falls into Totals systems that have records of 101-51, 78-53, 71-43, 64-34 and 40-12. Additionally, the Panthers are 8-2 OVER the total following 3+ Unders, while the Niners are 6-2 OVER after 3 straight games under. Take the 49ers/Panthers Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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10-09-22 | 49ers v. Panthers +7 | Top | 37-15 | Loss | -130 | 43 h 49 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over San Francisco. The Niners played an emotional game last week when they took down the defending Super Bowl champion Rams, 24-9, in San Francisco. Off that big divisional win, I expect a letdown in this non-division road game. Indeed, over the last 42 years, NFL road favorites have covered just 37% vs. non-division foes off a SU/ATS loss, if our road favorite was off a Monday Night divisional contest. Take Carolina + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-09-22 | Falcons v. Bucs -9.5 | Top | 15-21 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 45 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Bucs minus the points over the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons come into this game with a 4-0 ATS record, and have won their last 2 straight up as underdogs vs. the Browns and Seahawks. They're also covering the spread by an average of 5.12 ppg (Tampa's covering by just 1.37 ppg). Unfortunately for the Falcons, Tom Brady's teams have gone 19-0 ATS off a straight-up loss, if they owned a worse point spread differential than their opponent, and their opponent was off back to back wins! Take Tampa Bay minus the points. |