Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-20-23 | Suns -2.5 v. Clippers | 129-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Suns @ Clippers 10:30 PM ET Game# 551-552 Play On: Suns -2.5 (5*) Phoenix is coming off a 123-109 home win over the Clippers which tied the series at 1-1. Since 2017, Game 3 NBA Playoff away favorites that are coming of a home win by 10 points or more which evened the series up at 1-1 went 10-0 SU and 9-0-1 ATS. The away favorites won by an average of 10.4 points per game. Furthermore, the Clippers are 0-4 SU&ATS at home this season immediately following a road loss by 10 points or more and they lost by an average of 12.0 points per game. All 4 of those losses came against teams that are currently participating in the NBA Playoffs. The Clippers are 0-2 SU&ATS at home versus the Suns this season and lost by scores of 111-95 and 112-95. Give me the Phoenix Suns minus the points. |
|||||||
04-19-23 | Wolves +8.5 v. Nuggets | 113-122 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
Timberwolves @ Nuggets 10:00 PM ET Game# 543-544 Play On: Timberwolves +8.5 (5*) Minnesota turned in an embarrassing performance during a 109-80 blowout loss to Denver in Game 1. The Timberwolves are 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 in their last 5 away games following an away loss in which they scored 108 points or fewer. Their average point-spread in those 5 win and covers was +4.9. I look for Minnesota to put up a huge fight and take this game down to the wire at the very least. Give me the Minnesota Timberwolves plus the points. |
|||||||
04-19-23 | Heat v. Bucks -6.5 | 122-138 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Heat @ Bucks 9:00 PM ET Game# 541-542 Play On: Bucks -6.5 (5*) With or without Giannis Antetokounmpo I like the Bucks this evening. He’s likely out and being listed as doubtful and by what the current point-spread indicates it points directly to him being unavailable. Nevertheless, the Bucks have one of the deepest rosters quality wise as any in the NBA. They’ll also display a high degree of urgency and desperation this week in attempting to avoid traveling back to Miami down 2-0 in the series. Since 5/26/2021, NBA Playoffs home teams playing in a Game 2 and coming off a home loss have gone 11-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 16.6 points per game. Give me the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points. |
|||||||
04-19-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +1.5 | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
Lakers @ Grizzlies 7:30 PM ET Game# 539-540 Play On: Grizzlies +1.5 (5*) Memphis dropped the series opener to the Lakers 128-112. Despite that very disappointing performance, the Grizzlies are 35-7 SU (.833) at home this season. Furthermore, the Grizzlies are 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season immediately after losing at home in their previous contest and they won by a substantial margin of 16.7 points per game. Ja Morant is listed as questionable due to the bruised hand he suffered in Game 1 and this current point-spread surely indicates the sportsbooks don’t expect him to play. However, if he’s available and even not 100% expect Memphis to move to a small favorite in this contest. Ja Morant playing or not playing, I’m taking the Memphis Grizzlies either way. |
|||||||
04-18-23 | Clippers v. Suns -8 | Top | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Clippers @ Suns 10:00 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Suns -8.0 (10*) Since the 1996 NBA Playoffs, the Clippers have gone a dismal 4-16 ATS on the road when leading a series. Additionally, this current line speaks volumes. Phoenix is a sizable favorite despite losing 3 in a row and they’re facing an opponent like the Clippers who have won 4 straight. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the underdog in this spot. Furthermore, the Clippers are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS this season as an away underdog immediately following a game in which they won SU as an away underdog, and they were outscored by a substantial margin of 14.0 points per contest. Phoenix is coming off a 115-110 home loss as a favorite of -7.5 in Game 1 of this series. NBA favorites like Phoenix who are playing with revenge stemming from a SU loss as a home favorite of 7.0 or greater, and they’re coming off a home favorite SU loss in their previous game, resulted in those teams going 39-10 ATS (79.6%) since the 2018-2019 season began. The average point-spread for those favorites was -6.8 and they outscored the underdogs by 13.8 points per game. Give me the Phoenix Suns minus the points. |
|||||||
04-18-23 | Knicks v. Cavs -5.5 | 90-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Knicks @ Cavaliers 7:30 PM ET Game# 533-534 Play On: Cavaliers -5.5 (5*) The Knicks are coming off an impressive Game 1 SU win at Cleveland in a game they closed as a 5.0-point underdog. Recent NBA Playoffs betting history has shown those losing home teams like Cleveland recover strongly at home in Game 2 to not only win, but they do so by a decisive margin. NBA playoff teams that are playing in Game 2 of a series at home and are coming off a home SU loss in Game 1 have gone 9-0 SU&ATS since 5/26/2021. The average line for the home team was -3.9 and they outscored the visitors by 16.9 points per game. Give me the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points. |
|||||||
04-17-23 | Nets v. 76ers -10 | 84-96 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
Nets @ 76ers 7:00 PM ET Game# 523-524 Play On: 76ers -10.0 (5*) Philadelphia has dominated Brooklyn this season by going 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS against them and with an average victory margin of 13.0 points per game. Additionally, during those 5 wins Philadelphia shot a red-hot 44.6% from beyond the 3-points and held the Nets to 105 or fewer points during the last 3 of those meetings. Any NBA favorite like Philadelphia that’s leading in a playoff series and is facing an opponent line Brooklyn who has a season win percentage of .450 to .550, resulted in those playoff favorites going 27-7 (79.4%) ATS since 2019. The average line in those 34 contests was 7.6 and the favorites outscored the underdogs by a decisive margin of 15.1 points per game. Give me the 76ers minus the points. |
|||||||
04-16-23 | Clippers +8 v. Suns | 115-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Clippers @ Suns 8:00 PM ET Game# 517-518 Play On: Clippers +8.0 (5*) Since the 2018-2019 season, NBA away teams like the Clippers with a winning record versus an opponent like Phoenix that has a win percentage of .510 to .600 and they’ve played 3 games or fewer throughout the last 10 days, resulted in those teams going 26-10 SU (72.2%). The SU results take on added significance since it supports the sizable underdog in this matchup. Give me the Clippers plus the points. |
|||||||
04-15-23 | Knicks +5.5 v. Cavs | 101-97 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
Knicks @ Cavaliers 6:00 PM ET Game# 505-506 Play On: Knicks +5.5 (5*) The Knicks have been a very good road team this season by going 24-17 SU and 26-14 ATS (65%) in those contests. Furthermore, New York has gone an extremely profitable 5-1 SU&ATS in their last 6 games as a conference away underdog. The Knicks have also gone a noteworthy 11-2 SU this season when playing in their 6th game or fewer over the last 14 days like they’ll be doing today. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if the Knicks won this game outright. However, I’m not going to get greedy and take the points as an additional bonus. Give me the New York Knicks plus the points. |
|||||||
04-15-23 | Hawks v. Celtics -9 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Atlanta @ Boston 3:30 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Boston -9.0 (5*) Boston was a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS versus Atlanta during regular season action and won by an average of 13.3 points per game. During those 3 wins, Boston averaged 126.7 points scored per game, shot 52.2% from the field, and made 46.5% of its 3-point attempts. As a matter of fact, Boston made 20 or more 3-point shots in all 3 of those games. The Celtics are #2 in the NBA when it comes to offensive efficiency while Atlanta is #20 defensively. Since game 42 of this season, Boston has gone 13-1 ATS versus teams like Atlanta who allow opponents to shoot 48% or better on the year, and with the Celtics outscoring the opposition by an average of 15.8 points per contest. Atlanta has allowed 120 points or more in 7 of their last 11 games. Boston has scored 120 points or more in 7 of its last 10. Give me the Boston Celtics minus the points. |
|||||||
04-14-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Wolves | 95-120 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City @ Minnesota 9:30 PM ET Game# 571-572 Play On: Oklahoma City +5.5 (5*) Minnesota is coming off Tuesday’s overtime loss at the Lakers in a game they squandered a double-digit lead in the 2nd half. Since 4/10/2022, Minnesota has gone 0-7 SU&ATS at home when playing on exactly 2 days rest. Furthermore, the Timberwolves haven’t exactly been a great home favorite this season while 8-17 ATS and 12-13 SU in that role. That also includes 1-6 ATS and 2-5 SU during its last 7 as a home chalk. Oklahoma City is coming off Wednesday’s 123-118 win at New Orleans and did so as a 5.5-point underdog. The Thunder have now gone 48-25 ATS (65.8%) as an away underdog since the start of last season and that includes 21-11 ATS this year. Give me the Oklahoma City Thunder as an underdog. |
|||||||
04-14-23 | Bulls v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 91-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
Chicago @ Miami 7:00 PM ET Game# 569-570 Play On: Miami -5.5 (5*) The good news for Bulls fans is they’re team has won 3 straight games. The bad news is Chicago hasn’t won 4 straight games all season. As a matter of fact, Chicago is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS this season immediately following 3 consecutive wins and they were outscored by a decisive 13.8 points per game. Miami is coming off a disappointing home loss to Atlanta on Tuesday. The Heat are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home following a loss in their previous contest. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS during their previous 3 in that exact role and with an average victory margin of 10.7 points per game. Public bettors will be leaning heavily on the underdog in this matchup based on what they just witnessed earlier this week from both teams. Additionally, Chicago is 3-0 in their last 3 versus Miami this season, and that will sway them toward the underdog even further. Yet, the odds-makers remain undeterred on those recent results and opened Miami as a sizable favorite with all being considered. Give me the Miami Heat as a point-spread favorite. |
|||||||
04-12-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Pelicans | 123-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City @ New Orleans 9:30 PM ET Game# 567-568 Play On: Oklahoma City +5.5 (5*) Oklahoma City has gone 1-2 SU versus New Orleans this season. However, both losses came by exactly 3 points. Since the 2021-2022 season began, Oklahoma City has gone 4-0 ATS and 3-1 SU in their games at New Orleans. New Orleans is 7-15 ATS this season versus opponents like Oklahoma City that average 116.0 points scored per game. Since the start of last season, the Thunder have gone 47-25 (65.3%) ATS as a road underdog. OKC is coming off a 115-100 win over Memphis in their regular season finale. The Thunder have gone 15-5 ATS (75%) this season following a win by 10 points or more in their previous contest, and they won 11 of those 20 games straight up. Give me Oklahoma City as an underdog. |
|||||||
04-12-23 | Bulls +6.5 v. Raptors | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Chicago @ Toronto 7:00 PM ET Game# 565-566 Play On: Chicago +6.5 (5*) The Bulls finished the regular season strong by going 11-6 SU and 12-5 ATS during their last 17 games. Chicago has also gone a very profitable 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their previous 11 away games. Chicago has also shot 51.1% or better in 7 of its last 10 games. Give me Chicago as an underdog. |
|||||||
04-11-23 | Hawks +5.5 v. Heat | 116-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
Hawks @ Heat 7:10 PM ET Game# 561-562 Play On: Hawks +5.5 (5*) Atlanta failed to cover their last 2 regular season games. However, the Hawks are an extremely profitable 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games immediately following 2 consecutive ATS losses and averaged outscoring those opponents by 10.5 points per contest. Miami is coming off a 123-100 win over Orlando and they covered as a 5.0-point favorite. The Heat have gone 0-9 ATS and 2-7 SU in their last 9 games as a favorite of 2.5 or more following an ATS cover in their previous contest and they were outscored by an average of 8.2 points per game. Give me the Hawks plus the points. |
|||||||
04-04-23 | Thunder +8.5 v. Warriors | 125-136 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City @ Golden State 10:10 ET Game# 553-554 Play On: Oklahoma City +8.5 (5*) Golden State has been very good at home this season and will be facing a Thunder teams which has lost 5 of its last 7 games. However, OKC has gone 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS this season after a stretch in which they lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Furthermore, since the start of last season, Oklahoma City has gone an extremely profitable 47-24-1 ATS as an away underdog and that includes 20-10-1 ATS in that role this season. Give me Oklahoma City plus the points. |
|||||||
04-04-23 | Kings v. Pelicans -3.5 | 121-103 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Sacramento @ New Orleans 8:10 PM ET Game# 545-546 Play On: New Orleans -3.5 (5*) Despite being 7.0 games ahead of the New Orleans in the standings and winning 15 of its last 21 games, Sacramento comes up as an underdog in tonight’s matchup. On the other hand, New Orleans is a red-hot 7-1 SU&ATS in their last 8 games. This is also a Pelicans team which has gone 25-13 SU at home. Additionally, New Orleans has gone 14-2 ATS this season when facing an opponent like Sacramento who has a 48.0% or greater field goal percentage defense and outscored them by 13.2 points per contest. Speaking of defense, the Pelicans have allowed 96 points or fewer in 4 of its last 7 outing and just 100.3 points per game during that stretch. They may be catching the Kings at the right moment as they just recently clinched a playoff berth which ended a NBA longest postseason drought. There’s a high probability of a Sacramento flat spot tonight. Give me New Orleans minus the points. |
|||||||
03-27-23 | Wolves +4.5 v. Kings | 119-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Minnesota @ Sacramento 9:40 PM ET Game# 511-512 Play On: Minnesota +4.5 (5*) Minnesota is coming off yesterday’s 99-96 win at Golden State and has now been victorious in 3 straight games. The Timberwolves are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 when playing with no rest and coming off a win. They were an underdog in all 4 of those contests while outscoring those favorites by 7.3 points per game. Sacramento is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS this season as a favorite when facing an opponent playing with no rest and coming off a win. The Kings average point-spread in those contests was -3.5 and they were outscored by 8.8 points per game. Give me Minnesota plus the points. |
|||||||
03-03-23 | Knicks -2.5 v. Heat | Top | 122-120 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
New York @ Miami 8:10 PM ET Game# 553-554 Play On: New York -2.5 (5*) Miami has been slumping which is evidenced by them going 1-5 SU&ATS in their last 6 games. The Heat have scored 108 points or fewer in each of its previous 8 games. It’s very difficult to win in this NBA modern era with that kind of poor offensive scoring numbers. New York enters today a red-hot 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 and won by a decisive margin of 16.0 points per game. During this sizzling hot run they’ve averaged 123.7 points scored per game and shot a combined 51.5% from the field. The Knicks most latest win came at home over Brooklyn 142-118. New York is 4-0 SU&ATS this season on the road immediately following a road double-digit win and they won by an average of 13.0 points per game. Give me New York minus the points. |
|||||||
02-13-23 | Magic +5 v. Bulls | 100-91 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Orlando @ Chicago 8:10 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Orlando +5.0 (5*) Chicago enters today’s game having gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 and lost by 11.3 points per contest. Additionally, they averaged a paltry 94.3 points scored per game in those 3 defeats. Chicago’s most recent defeat came at Cleveland 97-89. The Bulls are 1-4 SU&ATS in their last 5 following a game in which they scored less than 100 points. Orlando has gone 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 as an underdog of between 3.0 and 10.5 following a SU loss. Orlando’s average point-spread in those contests was +7.2 and they won by a comfortable margin of 10.0 points per game. Give me Orlando plus the points. |
|||||||
02-10-23 | Wolves +7 v. Grizzlies | 107-128 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
Minnesota @ Memphis 8:10 PM ET Game# 565-566 Play On: Minnesota +7.0 (5*) Minnesota has done extremely well in this point-spread parameter since 1/2/2023. During that time, the Timberwolves have gone 7-0 SU&ATS as an underdog of between 1.5 to 7.5 with an average victory margin of 7.9 points per game. Despite Memphis coming off a win in their previous game, they’ve gone an abysmal 2-8 SU in their last 10 including 0-4 SU&ATS as a favorite of 7.5 or less and losing by 6.3 points per contest. Give me Minnesota minus the points. |
|||||||
02-09-23 | Nuggets v. Magic +6.5 | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
Denver @ Orlando 7:10 PM ET Game# 547-548 Play On: Orlando +6.5 (5*) Denver is an excellent 26-4 SU and and 19-10-1 ATS on the road. However, the Nuggets are just 12-13 SU and 9-14-2 ATS on the road. Furthermore, Denver enters today having lost 3 consecutive road game. Orlando began the season with a dismal 5-20 record in their first 25 games. Since that time, the Magic are 17-13 SU and 21-9 ATS. Moreover, Orlando is 7-0 ATS and 6-1 SU in their last 7 games as an underdog of between 5.0 and 10.5-points. Give me Orlando pus the points. |
|||||||
02-06-23 | Cavs v. Wizards +3 | 114-91 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Cleveland @ Washington 7:10 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Washington +3.0 (5*) Cleveland is coming off yesterday’s division road blowout win over Indiana. However, the Cavaliers are 0-6 SU&ATS in their last 6 on the road this season following a SU win. Cleveland is also 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 this season on the road and following an away win in their previous game. Cleveland is also 0-3 SU&ATS this season on the road when playing with no rest and lost by an average of 8.6 points per game. Washington is coming off SU favorite losses in each of their previous 2 games and blew leads of 20-points or more on each occasion. That was preceded by the Wizards going 6-0 SU&ATS in the previous 6 before those pair of absolute meltdowns. On a positive note, throughout their previous 3 games the Wizards have scored 122.0 points per contest and shot a red-hot 51.4%. NBA home teams like Washington that are coming off SU favorite losses in each of its previous 2 contests, abd they’re facing teams like Cleveland who are coming off an away division win, resulted in those NBA home teams going 27-7 SU (79.4%) since the beginning of the 1996-1997 season. Give me Washington plus the small number. |
|||||||
02-04-23 | Rockets v. Thunder -9.5 | 121-153 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
Houston @ Oklahoma City 8:10 PM ET Game# 555-556 Play On: Oklahoma City -9.5 (5*) Houston is coming off last night’s home loss to Toronto. The Rockets have gone an abysmal 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 this season when playing with no rest and lost by an average of 17.2 points per game. Houston is 0-8 SU&ATS in their last 8 as an away underdog of 6.0 or greater. Their average point-spread in those 8 contests was +9.5 and they were outscored by 16.7 points per game. Houston will be facing a Thunder team tonight that averages 116.6 points scored per game this season. The Rockets are 0-8 SU&ATS on the road this season when facing opponents that average 116.0 points scored or more per game and they losy by 15.9 points per contest. Oklahoma City has gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 as a home favorite versus and opponent playing with no rest and won by an average of 13.0 points per game. The Thunder will also be playing on 2 days rest and will look to revenge a 6-point loss at Houston on Wednesday night. Furthermore, OKC is a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 this season as a home favorite and won by 15.2 points per game. All 5 of those wins came by 11 points or more. Give me Oklahoma City minus the points. |
|||||||
02-03-23 | Blazers v. Wizards -4 | 124-116 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
Phoenix @ Washington 7:10 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Washington -4.0 (5*) Portland is coming off a 122-12 win at Memphis in their previous game. However, that snapped an abysmal 0-8 SU&ATS losing run on the road for Portland. Conversely, Washington has gone a red-hot 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 and won by 11.3 points per game. Even more impressive is the fact that 5 of those 6 wins came on the road. Washington has also gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 as a favorite of 2.0 or more and outscored those opponents by 16.3 points per game. Give me Washington minus the points. |
|||||||
01-30-23 | Warriors v. Thunder +5.5 | 128-120 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
Golden State @ Oklahoma City 8:10 PM ET Game# 567-568 Play On: Oklahoma City +5.5 (5*) Golden State has been Jekyll and Hyde regarding their home/away splits. The Warriors are 19-6 at home but a dismal 6-18 on the road. They’re coming off a 129-117 home win over Toronto in their previous game and that’s the good news. The bad is that they’re 2-10 ATS on the road this season following a win in their previous game, and they were outscored by an average of 12.0 points per game. Oklahoma City is 6-0 ATS and 5-1 SU in their last 6 as an underdog of 2.0 or greater. The Thunder are also an extremely profitable 10-1 ATS and 8-3 SU during its last 11 games. Throughout their previous 5 contests OKC has shot a red-hot 49.7% from the field and made an exceptional 41.0% of its 3-point shot attempts. Give me Oklahoma City plus the points. |
|||||||
01-28-23 | Lakers v. Celtics -8.5 | 121-125 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
LA Lakers @ Boston 8:40 PM ET Game# 539-540 Play On: Boston -8.5 (5*) The Celtics enter today’s contest on a 3-game losing streak. That’s occurred just 1 other time this season. The first time it transpired, Boston followed it up with a 4-game win streak and with an average victory margin of 16.7 points per contest. The Lakers have won 3 of its last 4. Yet, they find themselves as a sizable underdog versus an opponent in a min-slump. The line tells me all I need to know when it comes to what the right side is. Give me Boston minus the points. |
|||||||
01-28-23 | Wizards +5 v. Pelicans | 113-103 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
Washington @ New Orleans 8:10 PM ET Game# 533-534 Play On: Washington +5.0 (5*) New Orleans has lost 6 straight games and has been anemic offensively during recent games while scoring less than 100 points in 3 of its last 5. That’s not a winning formula and especially since the Pelicans have allowed their last 5 opponents to shoot a combined 49.4%. Washington comes into this game well rested after not playing since Wednesday. Additionally, the Wizards are on a successful 4-0 SU&ATS perfect run with 3 of those games played on the road. The Wizards have shot a red-hot 39.7% from beyond the 3-point line over their previous 5 games. It always helps to have an underdog who is knocking down 3-point shot a high percentage. Give me Washington plus the points. |
|||||||
01-28-23 | Kings v. Wolves +2.5 | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
Sacramento @ Minnesota 8:10 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Minnesota +2.5 (5*) The Kings will have a decided rest advantage in this contest. They haven’t played since Wednesday’s 113-95 home loss to Toronto. That contest went well under the total of 238.0. Sacramento is 8-15 SU this season after going under the total in their previous contest. Minnesota is 8-1 SU&ATS in their last 9 and 5-0 SU&ATS during its previous 5 games this season as a home underdog. Minnesota is coming off last night's home win over Memphis. The Timberwolves are a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS this season as a home underdog playing with no rest with an average victory margin of 6.7 points per game. Give me Minnesota plus the small number. |
|||||||
01-27-23 | Raptors +5.5 v. Warriors | 117-129 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Toronto @ Golden State 10:10 PM ET Game# 521-522 Play On: Toronto +5.5 (5*) Despite being 18-6 at home this season and facing a team that’s a poor 7-15 on the road, Golden State is currently only a 5.0-point favorite. However, the Warriors are coming off an 122-120 home win over Memphis, and they’ve gone 0-4 SU in their last 4 immediately following a win. Furthermore, Golden State hasn’t won 2 consecutive games since January 2nd. Toronto is begging to show some life after vastly underachieving for most of the season. The Raptors are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 while winning 2 of those contests SU. The most recent of which was a 15-point blowout victory at Sacramento. Toronto has shot 49.2% throughout its previous 5 games and also made an impressive 39.1% of their 3-point attempts. Give me Toronto plus the points. |
|||||||
01-23-23 | Grizzlies v. Kings +1.5 | 100-133 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
Memphis @ Sacramento 10:40 PM ET Game# 541-542 Play On: Sacramento +1.5 (5*) This will be the Grizzlies 3rd road game in the last 4 days and they lost the first 2 in gut wrenching fashion by a combined 3 points. Memphis is a terrific 20-3 at home this season, but they’re a mediocre at best 11-12 in away games. Sacramento is coming off Saturday’s 129-127 home loss to Philadelphia. That snapped a Sacramento 6-game win streak. This will be the Kings 3rd straight game played at home. More than anything else, this should be a very advantageous situation for Sacramento despite playin a Memphis team they trail by 4.5-games in the Western Conference standings. Give me Sacramento plus the small number. |
|||||||
01-13-23 | Warriors v. Spurs +9 | 144-113 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
Golden State @ San Antonio 7:40 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: San Antonio +9.0 (3*) Golden State is hands down the better team in this matchup. However, it’s my job to beat the point-spread and assess the situation pertaining the topic for both teams. Golden State has 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 and was outscored by an average of 9.7 points per game while being a favorite on each occasion. As a matter of fact, they shot 37.5% and 38.5% from the floor in their previous 2. Conversely, San Antonio has gone 5-0 ATS and 3-2 SU during its last 5 at home with their average point-spread being +6.4. Give me San Antonio plus the points. |
|||||||
01-07-23 | Pelicans v. Mavs -7 | 117-127 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
New Orleans @ Dallas 8:10 PM ET Game# 527-528 Play On: Dallas -7.0 (5*) They’re coming off last night’s 108-102 home loss to Brooklyn. The Pelicans are 1-8 ATS on the road this season when facing a team like Dallas that has a winning record. New Orleans is also 1-5 SU&ATS during its previous 6 away games. Dallas is also coming off a 124-95 home blowout loss to Boston on Thursday night. That embarrassing defeat ended a Dallas 7-game win streak. Dallas will have a huge rest advantage tonight. The Mavericks will be playing in only their 3rd game over the last 7 days. Conversely, New Orleans will be playing their 6th game in 9 days. Give me Dallas minus the points. |
|||||||
01-06-23 | Knicks v. Raptors -3.5 | 112-108 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
New York @ Toronto 7:40 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Toronto -3.5 (5*) This line makes little sense to me and when that occurs, I tend to lean toward a contrarian approach. The Knicks enter today on a 3-game win streak in addition to capturing 7 of its last 9 away contests. Conversely, Toronto has lost 4 of its last 5 and 10 of their previous 13 games. Yet, Toronto opened as a 2.5-point home favorite and is now up to a 3.5-point chalk. This despite most tickets and money being wagered on New York as of early Friday morning. This is a classic example of reverse line movement. Give me Toronto minus the points. |
|||||||
01-05-23 | Celtics -2.5 v. Mavs | 124-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Celtics @ Mavericks 7:40 PM ET Game# 579-580 Play On: Celtics -2.5 (4*) This line is a bit of a head scratcher with all considered. Dallas is currently on a 7-game win streak and is 15-5 at home. Boston will be playing their 3rd road game in 5 days and the first 2 were forgetful. The Celtics were inexplicable hammered at Oklahoma City on Tuesday night 150-117 as an 11.5-point favorite. On their 1st game of this road trip, they were defeated 123-111 at Denver. They allowed Denver and Oklahoma City to shoot a combined 58.2% which is absolutely atrocious defense. Yet. Boston is a small road favorite against a red-hot Nuggets team. This looks like an ideal situation to jump all over the home underdog. However, it’s seldom that easy when it comes to sports betting. I am going with a contrarian mindset in this spot. Give me Boston minus the small number. |
|||||||
12-26-22 | Wolves +3.5 v. Heat | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
Timberwolves @ Heat 7:40 PM ET Game# 505-506 Play On: Timberwolves +3.5 (5*) Since the start of last season, Minnesota has gone 3-0 SU versus Miami and with an average victory margin of 8.3 points per game. As a matter of fact, since 12/30/2018. Minnesota has gone 8-1 SU versus Miami. Miami has drained their betting supporters out of a lot of money thus far when playing at home. They’ve gone just 9-8 SU and 3-13-1 ATS at home this season. That includes going 1-4 SU and 0-5 during its last 5 at home. Give me the Timberwolves plus the points. |
|||||||
12-23-22 | Bulls v. Knicks -5 | 118-117 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Bulls @ Knicks 7:40 PM ET Game# 565-566 Play On: Knicks -5.0 (5*) The Knicks will be in a sour mood after suffering a 113-106 home loss to Toronto on Wednesday. That ended a 8-game win streak for New York. Chicago will be playing in their 3rd game in 4 days and is coming off away underdog SU wins in their previous 2. However, they’ve gone 0-2 SU&ATS versus New York this season with both coming on their home floor. They lost those 2 contests to New York by 8 and 23 points and were a combined -28 on the boards. Give me New York minus the points. |
|||||||
12-19-22 | Hornets v. Kings -9.5 | 125-119 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Charlotte @ Sacramento 10:10 PM ET Game# 517-518 Play On: Sacramento -9.5 (5*) There is no analysis today due to time constraints. |
|||||||
12-19-22 | Jazz v. Cavs -6 | 99-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
Utah @ Cleveland 7:10 PM ET Game# 501-502 Play On: Cleveland -6.0 (5*) There is no analysis today due to time constraints. |
|||||||
12-19-22 | Raptors v. 76ers -7.5 | 101-104 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
Toronto @ Philadelphia 7:10 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Philadelphia -7.5 (5*) There is no analysis today due to time constraints. |
|||||||
12-05-22 | Thunder +6.5 v. Hawks | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
No analysis on Monday’s NBA picks due to time constraints. |
|||||||
12-05-22 | Clippers v. Hornets +4.5 | 119-117 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
No analysis on Monday’s NBA picks due to time constraints. |
|||||||
11-30-22 | Pacers +4.5 v. Kings | 114-137 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
Indiana @ Sacramento 10:10 PM ET Game# 549-550 Play On: Indiana +4.5 (5*) Sacramento put together a 7-game win streak this season and it was their longest unbeaten run since 2004. However, since that time, the Kings have gone 0-3 SU&ATS and were outscored by 10.7 points per game. Indiana has gone 12-3 ATS throughout their previous 15 contests and won 11 of those games straight up. The Pacers are also 5-0 ATS and 3-2 SU in their last 5 away games. NBA teams that have covered 12 or more of their previous 15 games and are playing in its 8th game or more over the past 14 days, resulted in those teams going 26-6 ATS (81.2%) since 2018. Give me the Indiana Pacers plus the points. |
|||||||
11-23-22 | Wolves v. Pacers +2 | 115-101 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
Minnesota @ Indiana 7:10 PM ET Game# 501-502 Play On: Indiana +2.0 (5*) Indiana enters this contest having gone 8-2 SU&9-1 ATS during its previous 10 games played and that includes a current 5-game unbeaten streak. During this 5-game winning streak the Pacers have held opponents to a mere 40.9% shooting and 30.1 from 3-point territory while outscoring them by an average of 11.2 points per game. The Pacers will be up to the challenge against a Minnesota team which is also on a win streak of 4-games. Give me the Indiana Pacers. |
|||||||
11-19-22 | Jazz +3.5 v. Blazers | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
Utah @ Portland 10:10 PM ET. Game# 535-536 Play On: Utah +3.5 (5*) I usually don’t like taking teams like Utah that are playing with no rest versus an opponent who is. However, there’s an exception to every one of my tendencies and this is one of those spots. Portland is coming off last night’s 134-133 home win over Phoenix in a game they shot a scalding hot 56.0%. The Jazz are 4-0 SU&ATS this season following a game in which they shot 50% or better and won by an average of 9.0-points per contest. This will be the first meeting of the season between these division rivals. The Jazz were 4-0 SU&ATS versus Portland last season and won by a substantial average of 26.5 points per game. Give me Utah plus the points. |
|||||||
11-16-22 | Knicks v. Nuggets -3.5 | 106-103 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
New York @ Denver 10:10 PM ET Game# 571-572 Play On: Denver -3.5 (5*) The Nuggets will be without star center Nikola Jokic tonight. However, the line as been adjusted accordingly for his absence. Denver is 5-1 in their last 6 and will be playing on 2 days rest. Their only loss in that sequence came against an 11-3 Boston team who is currently on a 7-game win streak. New York is coming off last night’s 118-111 win at Utah. The Knicks are 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 following a win and lost by a decisive margin of 15.7 points per game. Give me Denver minus the points. |
|||||||
11-16-22 | Celtics -2.5 v. Hawks | 126-101 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
Boston @ Atlanta 7:40 PM ET Game# 561-562 Play On: Boston -2.5 (5*) The red-hot Boston Celtics will enter this contest riding a 7-game win streak. They’ll be facing an Atlanta team coming off a 121-106 win at Milwaukee as a 4.5-point underdog. NBA road favorites versus an opponent (Atlanta) coming off a road underdog SU upset win by 10 points or more resulted in those road favorites going 50-11 SU since 2018, and with an average victory margin of 9.0 points per contest. Considering the small number we are being asked to cover, the SU results in this precise situation takes on added significance. Give me Boston minus the small number. |
|||||||
11-16-22 | Pacers +2.5 v. Hornets | 125-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
Indiana @ Charlotte 7:10 PM ET Game# 555-556 Play On: Indiana +2.5 (5*) Charlotte is coming off a 112-105 win at Orlando in their previous game. The Hornets are 0-3 SU&ATS this season following a win and lost by 7.3 points per contest. Simply put, Charlotte hasn’t won 2 consecutive games so far in this 2022-2023 NBA campaign. The Hornets are also 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 at home. Conversely, Indiana is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games and won 5 of those contests SU. Give me Indiana plus the small number. |
|||||||
11-09-22 | Pelicans v. Bulls +2 | 115-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
New Orleans @ Chicago 8:10 PM ET Game# 551-552 Play On: Chicago +2.0 (5*) The Pelicans are averaging a robust a robust 118.5 points per game. However, they’ve gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 on the road and allowed 120 points or more on each occasion. Chicago is 4-1 SU&ATS in their last 5 at home this season. This will mark the first time that the Bulls will be hosting a non-conference opponent. They went 12-3 SU last season at home versus non-conference opponents. NBA teams like Chicago who are +3.0 to -3.0 who are playing before Game 42 and facing an opponent averaging 118.0 or more points scored per game, resulted in those home teams going 33-8 SU (81%) since 1996. Give me Chicago plus the small number. |
|||||||
11-09-22 | Nuggets v. Pacers +6 | 122-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Denver @ Indiana 7:10 PM ET Game# 531-532 Play On: Indiana +6.0 (5*) The Pacers began this season by losing 4 of its first 5 game. Since then, they’ve gone 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS with all those Pacers results coming as an underdog. Denver is 7-3 but just 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS on the road. This contest has the earmarks of a close game and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Indiana walk off with another SU underdog win. Nevertheless, let’s not get greedy and proceed to take the points being given to us. Give me Detroit plus the points. |
|||||||
11-04-22 | Blazers v. Suns -10.5 | 108-106 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
Portland @ Phoenix 10:10 PM ET Game# 545-546 Play On: Phoenix -10.5 (5*) This is one of those uncomfortable picks for me and only because I hate betting NBA double-digit favorites. However, there’s exception to every sports betting rule, and this pick qualifies in that regard. The Suns are a red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games with an average victory margin of 16.6 points per contest. As a matter of fact, their last and only loss this season was a 113-111 defeat at Portland. Portland’s star point guard Damien Lillard scored 41 points in that contest. Lillard will be out tonight with a calf injury. Which leads to this Phoenix Suns betting trend that’s difficult to ignore. The Suns are 15-1 ATS since 2020 when playing with same season revenge stemming from a road favorite SU loss. Additionally, the Suns are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home this season while outscoring their opponents by 13.6 points per game. Give me Phoenix minus the big number. |
|||||||
11-04-22 | Bucks v. Wolves +3.5 | 115-102 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
Milwaukee @ Minnesota 10:10 PM ET Game# 547-548 Play On: Minnesota +3.5 (5*) Milwaukee is off to a terrific 7-0 start to the season and covered 6 of those contests. Before we anoint them as the next NBA champion let’s keep this in mind. The Cumulative record of their opponents this season is a dismal 13-28 (.317). The only team they faced who currently has a winning record is Atlanta (5-3). Minnesota is a much better team than their 4-4 record indicates, and they’ll display that this evening. The Timberwolves won both regular season meetings versus Milwaukee a season ago by scores of 138-19 and 113-108. Give me Minnesota plus the points. |
|||||||
11-04-22 | Bulls v. Celtics -7 | 119-123 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
Chicago @ Boston 7:40 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Boston -7.0 (5*) Boston will be out to revenge an embarrassing 120-102 blowout loss at Chicago just 12 days ago. However, the sportsbooks are unfazed by that result when looking at the sizable number that the Celtics are laying in this game. I’m think like a bookmaker so give me Boston minus the points. |
|||||||
11-03-22 | Nuggets -6 v. Thunder | 122-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
Nuggets @ Thunder 8:10 PM ET Game# 525-526 Play On: Denver -6.0 (5*) This is one of those lines that won’t make sense to many NBA bettors. After all, Oklahoma City has gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games with an average victory margin of 9.0 points per game and they were an underdog on 3 of those occasions. Their most recent win was a 116-108 home win over Orlando this past Tuesday. Yet, they’re a sizable home underdog in this contest against a Denver team which has an identical 4-3 season record as they have, and they’re just 1-3 SU&ATS in road games. Denver is coming off a 121-110 road loss at the then winless Lakers in their previous contest in a game they closed as a 3.5-point favorite. NBA road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 that are coming off a SU favorite loss (Denver), versus an opponent coming off a home win in which they scored 110 points or more, resulted in those road favorites going 57-21 ATS (73.1%) since 1996 and 24-6 ATS (80%) since 2018. If it looks too good to be true when it comes to sports betting, more times than not it is. This is a textbook example of exactly that. Give me the Nuggets minus the points. |
|||||||
06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
Warriors @ Celtics 9:00 PM ET Game# 527-528 Play On: Celtics -3.5 (10*) Boston is coming off a disappointing 104-94 loss in Game 5 at Golden State. The Celtics have now lost 2 straight and find themselves on the brink of elimination with a 3-2 series deficit. However, the Celtics haven’t lost 3 consecutive games since 12/29/2021. As a matter of fact they’re 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 following 2 consecutive losses and won by an average of 18.3 points per contest. Golden State enters tonight’s game with a season record of 68-35 (.660). Any NBA Playoff home favorite of 7.0 or less (Celtics) that’s playing in a Game 6, and is coming off a loss in which they scored less than 100 points, versus an opponent (Warriors) with a season record of .636 to .736, resulted in those home favorites going 10-0 SU&ATS since 2004. Those home teams won those 10 contests by a decisive margin of 14.9 points per game. Give me the Celtics minus the points for a Top Play. |
|||||||
06-13-22 | Celtics +4 v. Warriors | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Celtics @ Warriors 9:00 PM ET Game# 525-526 Play On: Celtics +4.0 (10*) The Celtics missed a golden opportunity to give themselves a commanding 3-1 series lead following their 107-97 home loss to Golden State in Game 4. Nevertheless, Boston has gone a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS during these playoffs following a loss and outscored their opponents by a decisive margin of 15.6 points per game. The Celtics are also a very successful 7-3 SU and 7-2-1 ATS on the road during these 2022 NBA Playoffs. Furthermore, the Celtics are 10-2 ATS this season following a loss by 10 points or more with a sizable +11.1 points per game differential. Give me the Celtics plus the points for a 10* Top Play. |
|||||||
06-10-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 107-97 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
Golden State @ Boston 9:00 PM ET Game# 523-524 Play On: Boston -3.5 (10*) Boston is coming off a 116-100 win over Golden State in Game 3 on Wednesday night an easily covered as a 3.5-point home favorite. This sets up a terrific NBA Playoff betting angle which is displayed below. Any NBA Playoffs home favorite of 5.0 or less that’s playing in Game 4 of a series and is coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 6.0 to 24.0 points, resulted in those Game 4 home favorites going 14-1 SU&ATS since 2010. If that point-spread was 2.5 to 5.0 points the home favorite improves to 10-0 ATS with an average victory margin of 11.8 points per game. Give me Boston minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
06-08-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 100-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Golden State @ Boston 9:00 PM ET Game# 521-522 Play On: Boston -3.5 (10*) Golden State has been terrific at home during these 2022 NBA Playoffs with a 10-1 record. Nonetheless, they’ve gone a concerning 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS during their last 6 on the road. The Warriors enter today with a season record of 66-34 (.660). Boston is coming off a 107-88 loss in Game 2 at Golden State which evened this NBA Finals series at 1-1. However, the Celtics have been a resilient bunch during the postseason following a loss while going 6-0 SU&ATS and winning by a decisive average of 15.5 points per game. As a matter of fact, Boston hasn’t lost 2 consecutive games since 3/30. This will be the 1st NBA Finals home game for the Celtics faithful since 2010 and the atmosphere at TD Garden tonight promises to be electric thus giving an additional energy boost to their beloved team. Any NBA Playoff Game 3 home favorite of 2.5 to 4.5 points (Boston) that’s coming off an away SU&ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 15.0 or less, and it evened the series at 1-1, and is facing an opponent (Golden State) with a win percentage of .690 or less, resulted in those Game 3 home teams going 10-0 SU&ATS since 1996. The home teams won those 10 contests by an average of 10.7 points per game. Give me the Celtics minus the points for my NBA Playoff Game of the Year. |
|||||||
06-05-22 | Celtics +4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 88-107 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
Celtics @ Warriors 8:00 PM ET Game# 519-52 Play On: Boston +4.5 (10*) The early betting on this game has heavily sided with the home favorite Golden State Warriors. Yet, this line opened at 4.0 and is currently still at 4.0 at most betting parlors. The sportsbooks have been unfazed by the onslaught of action wagered on the home side while refusing to move off the opening line. Since the Celtics are coming off a 120-108 win in Game 1 on Thursday night, their remains many NBA bettors that still subscribe to the zig-zag theory as being a no brainer concept at playoff time. There is also a consensus opinion out there giving little if any chance the Golden State will lose 2 straight at home, especially after starting the postseason 9-0 in San Francisco, and going 40-11 this season on their home floor all year. Hence, the predictable heavy action on the Warriors. Much ado has been given to the Warriors home court prowess during these playoffs, and rightfully so. Nevertheless, we must not forget that Boston is 8-2 SU and 8-1-1 ATS on the road during the postseason while facing very good opponents in Brooklyn, Milwaukee, and Miami. These teams are being lauded as being elite defensively. Boston has certainly earned that reputation for their play during regular season action in which they were #1 in many defensive categories. Despite giving up 108 to Golden State in Game 1, the Celtics have held their last 5 playoff opponents to 95.3 points scored per game. Furthermore, Boston has allowed 96 points or fewer in 5 of their previous 10 contests. Conversely, Golden State has allowed 110 points or more in 4 of their previous 5 games. Boston is coming off a 120-108 win at Golden State on Thursday and did so as a 3.5-point underdog. That defeat dropped the Warriors season record to 65-34 (.657). Any NBA Finals away underdog of 6.0 or less (Boston) that’s coming off an away underdog SU win in which they allowed 110 points or fewer, versus an opponent (Golden State) with a win percentage of .707 or less, resulted in those away underdogs going 4-0 SU&ATS since 1991. The away underdogs not only won all 4 of those contests straight up, but they did so by a decisive margin of 14.5 points per game. The average line in those 4 games was 4.7. Give me the Celtics plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
06-02-22 | Celtics +3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 28 h 37 m | Show |
Celtics @ Golden State 9:00 PM ET Game# 517-518 Play On: Celtics +3.5 (10*) Golden State is a perfect 9-0 SU at home during these 2022 NBA Playoffs. However, Boston is 7-2 SU and 7-1-1 ATS on the road in this postseason. Golden State has been a heavily wagered on side thus far according to public betting patterns. Afterall, they have a huge edge in NBA Finals experience and will be facing a Celtics team coming off back-to-back series that have gone an entire 7 games. Additionally, Golden State will be playing on an extra 3 days of rest compared to Boston in Game 1. Thus, public perception and betting trends being lopsided toward Golden State. However, Boston has gone 19-9 ATS as an underdog this season including 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in the playoffs. The Celtics have also won their last 4 and 6 of its previous 7 played at Golden State. That includes a 22-point win at Golden State on 3/16. The Celtics were tremendous defensively against Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals, and especially so during the last 5 in that series when they held the Heat to 95.6 points scored per game and an atrocious 39.6% shooting. Granted Golden State will present more challenges offensively than Miami. Nonetheless, the Heat are more committed defensively than Golden State. Boston has defeated Brooklyn with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, defending world champion Milwaukee, and #1 Eastern Conference seed Miami to reach the Finals. A far tougher path than Golden State has taken. Give me Boston plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
05-29-22 | Celtics -2.5 v. Heat | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
Celtics @ Heat 8:30 PM ET Game# 953-954 Play On: Celtics -2.5 (10*) This will be just the 3rd time since 1991 NBA Playoffs that we have a Game 7 road favorite. That speaks volumes to me. Not only are the Celtics a Game 7 road favorite, but it comes after a Game 6 home loss and them squandering a chance to advance to the NBA Finals. The sportsbooks are dangling the carrot to take the home underdog in this win or go home matchup. I am not taking the bait. Any NBA Game 7 away team with a point-spread of +3.0 to -3.0 and there was a total of 203.0 or less, resulted in those road teams going 5-0 SU&ATS since 1991. The average margin of victory was 7.0-points per game. Give me Boston minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
05-25-22 | Celtics v. Heat +2.5 | Top | 93-80 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Celtics @ Heat 8:30 PM ET Game# 501-502 Play On: Miami +2.5 (10*) Miami is coming off a terrible performance in Game 4 at Boston on Monday which resulted in a 102-82 blowout loss. However, the Heat have gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home following a loss and won by a massive average of 27.3 points per game. Despite that lopsided loss, Miami still held Boston to just 39% shooting. Miami is 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 following a game in which they held their opponent to less than 40% shooting and won by an average of 15.0 points per game. Furthermore, the Heat have gone 20-1 SU this season following a game in which there was a combined 205 points or less scored. Lastly, Boston has gone a dismal 1-5 SU&ATS in their last 6 following a win and all those contests took place in the playoffs. Give me the Heat plus the small number for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
05-20-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Warriors | Top | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
Mavericks @ Warriors 9:00 PM ET Game# 647-648 Play On: Mavericks +6.5 (10*) Dallas is coming off a terrible 112-87 loss in the series opener on Wednesday. The Mavericks were held to 36% shooting and were dominated on the boards 51-35. However, this is a very resilient Dallas team that’s gone 10-0 SU this season following a loss by 20 points or more and outscored opponents by 13.2 points per game. Dallas is also 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 this season after shooting worse than 40% during its previous game and won by 14.9 points per contest. Lastly, the Mavericks are 12-1 SU during their last 13 following a game they scored less than 100 points. Give me the Mavericks plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
05-19-22 | Celtics +3.5 v. Heat | Top | 127-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Celtics @ Heat 8:30 PM ET Game# 543-544 Play On: Boston +3.5 (10*) Boston is coming off an opening game 118-107 loss at Miami and failed to cover as a 4.0-point underdog. Boston has gone a terrific 10-1 SU in their last 11 following a loss in their previous game, and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS in the playoffs with an average victory margin 14.7 points per contest. The Celtics will also welcome NBA Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart back to the lineup after he missed Game 1 due to a foot injury. Since the 2011 NBA Playoffs, any away underdog of 4.5 or less that’s playing in a Game 2 and is coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 20.0-points or less, resulted in those away underdogs going 9-0 ATS. Furthermore, those away underdogs won 8 of those 9 games straight up. Give me Boston plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
05-18-22 | Mavs +5 v. Warriors | Top | 87-112 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 56 m | Show |
Mavericks @ Warriors 9:00 PM ET Game# 539-540 Play On: Mavericks +5.0 (10*) Dallas has gone 3-1 SU&ATS versus Golden State this season. The Mavericks recently concluded a huge upset win over #1 seed Phoenix in their previous series which was culminated with a decisive 123-90 road win in Game 7. Dallas is 8-0 ATS this season after allowing 90 points or fewer in their previous contest and outscored their opponents by an average of 16.4 points per game. The Mavericks are also 15-3 SU this season following a game in which they allowed 95 points or fewer. During their last 3 games in the Conference Semifinals versus Memphis, Golden State only averaged 102.0 points scored per contest while shooting a poor 41.2% from the field. Give me the Mavericks plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
05-17-22 | Celtics +2 v. Heat | Top | 107-118 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
Celtics @ Heat 8:45 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Celtics +2.0 (10*) The Celtics are 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS on the road thus far in the 2022 NBA Playoffs. Their only blemish came in Game 3 at Milwaukee when they fell by just 2 points after Al Horford’s potential last second game tying tip was waved off and deemed to be just after time had expired. The Celtics have also gone a noteworthy 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games played in Miami. Boston has an impressive +7.4 point per game differential on the road this season. During their 3 regular season meetings versus Miami, Boston held the Heat to a mere 92.0 points scored per game and 40.5% shooting. During their 7-game series win over Milwaukee, Boston held a potent offensive team like the Bucks to just 97.7 points per contest. Lastly, it’s really odd to seed a #1 seed as just a 2.0-point home favorite in Game 1 of a Conference Finals, not to mention that the Heat are a money line underdog of +150 to win the series. Give me Boston plus the small number for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
05-15-22 | Mavs v. Suns -6.5 | 123-90 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Mavericks @ Suns 8:00 PM ET Game# 527-528 Play On: Phoenix -6.5 (5*) The home teams have gone 6-0 SU&ATS in this series and have won by a decisive margin of 17.2 points per game. Phoenix is 5-0 SU at home versus Dallas this season and all those wins came by 7 points or more. This is a battle tested Suns team that advanced to the 2021 NBA Finals before falling to Milwaukee in 6 games. Phoenix lost Game 6 of this series 113-86 as a 2.0-point favorite. Any Game 7 home favorite (Suns) of 6.0 or more that’s coming off a Game 6 straight up favorite loss, resulted in those home favorites going 5-0 SU&ATS since 200, and they won by an average of 22.2 points per game. Give me the Suns minus the points. |
|||||||
05-15-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 81-109 | Win | 100 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
Bucks @ Celtics 3:30 PM ET Game# 523-524 Play On: Celtics -4.5 (10*) Boston has exhibited exactly why they were #1 in overall defensive efficiency during regular season action. Throughout the first 6 games of this series versus Milwaukee they held the Bucks to 110.5 points scored per game and 42.2% shooting. They will carry the momentum carried over from a convincing 108-95 win in Game 6 at Milwaukee. Boston has already lost twice at home in this series. I deem it to be highly improbable that a team that played so well during the 2nd half of the season will lose 3 at home in a single playoff series and is even more likely to win by a comfortable margin. The Celtics forced a Game 7 with an impressive 108-95 win at Milwaukee on Thursday night. That win improved the Celtics season record to 58-34 (.630). Any NBA Playoff team that’s a home favorite of 4.0 to 6.5-points in a Game 7, and they possess a win percentage of .626 or better, and they allowed 98 points or fewer in their previous game, resulted in those Game 7 home favorites going 7-0 SU&ATS. The home teams also outscored their 7 opponents by a decisive average of 15.6 points per game. The home team only allowed an average of 88.3 points per game during those 7 contests. Give me the Celtics minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
05-13-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -8 | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 29 h 14 m | Show | |
Memphis @ Golden State 10:00 PM ET Game# 517-518 Play On: Golden State -8.0 (5*) So, let’s assess all the facts leading into this Game 6 of the NBA Western Conference Semifinals. Memphis won Game 5 on Wednesday in a 134-95 rout. The Grizzlies led that contest by 52 heading into the 4th quarter. Yet here they sit as a large 8.5-point underdog. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the points and banking on you overreacting to what you witnessed in the previous game of this series. I’m not taking the bait. The core group of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson all have plenty of experience on how to close out a series at home. I like them to succeed on Friday and Golden State to win by a double-digit margin while doing so. Give me Golden State minus the points. |
|||||||
05-13-22 | Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
Celtics @ Bucks 7:30 PM ET Game# 516-517 Play On: Celtics +1.5 (10*) The defending world champion Milwaukee Bucks are coming off a thrilling 110-107 comeback win at Boston on Wednesday. The Bucks overcame a 14-point early 4th quarter deficit and trailed by 6 with less than 2 minutes left. Yet, they’re just a 1.5-point favorite with a chance to close the series at home and prevent going back to Boston for a Game 7. As I have stated on too many times to remember, “think like a bookmaker”. If it looks too easy, then most times it is when it’s regarding sports betting. This is a textbook example of such. Any away team (Celtics) with a win percentage of .700 or less that’s playing in a Game 6 during the first 2 rounds of the NBA Playoffs and is coming off a home favorite SU loss in Game 5, resulted in those away teams going 20-2 ATS (91%) since 2000. Those away teams also went 21-3 SU (.875) in those contests as well. Give me Boston plus the small number for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
05-12-22 | Suns v. Mavs +2 | Top | 86-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
Phoenix @ Dallas 9:30 PM ET Game# 909-910 Play On: Dallas +2.0 (10*) Dallas is coming off a brutal performance during Tuesday night’s 110-80 loss at Phoenix and now finds itself down 3-2 in this series, and on the brink of elimination. However, this is a Mavericks team that’s shown excellent recuperative powers following a lopsided loss. Specifically speaking, Dallas is a perfect 8-0 SU this season following a road loss by 20 points or more and they won by an average of 11.5 points per game. The Mavericks are also 14-1 SU since the start of last season following any loss by 20 points or greater. This is also a Mavericks team which is 33-13 SU (.715) at home this season. Phoenix is just 2-3 on the road in the playoffs after going a terrific 32-9 during regular season away games. Give me Dallas plus the small number for a Top Play. |
|||||||
05-11-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +4.5 | 95-134 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Warriors @ Grizzlies 9:30 PM ET Game# 509-510 Play On: Grizzlies +4.5 (5*) Memphis enters Game 5 at home down 3-1 in the series and without their star point guard Ja Morant due to a bruised knee. However, let’s not bury them just yet. During their Game 4 loss at Golden State, Memphis led for all but 45 seconds of that contest and easily covered as a 10.0-point underdog. Despite that defeat, Memphis has still gone an excellent 20-6 SU when Morant hasn’t been available to play this season. The Grizzlies are also an impressive 33-13 (.717) at home and includes an extremely profitable 30-16 ATS (65%). Give me the Grizzlies plus the points. |
|||||||
05-11-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -5 | Top | 110-107 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
Bucks @ Celtics 7:00 PM ET Game# 507-508 Play On: Celtics -5.0 (10*) The Celtics have held one of the better offensive teams in the NBA to 99.5 points scored per game and 42.1% shooting throughout the first 4 games of this series. Furthermore, during the previous 3 games of the series, Milwaukee is a terrible 21-79 (26.6%) from beyond the 3-point line. Additionally, during those 3 contests Boston has outscored Milwaukee in the 4th quarters by a combined score of 103-71. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to draw the conclusion that Milwaukee is obviously wearing down late in game while the Celtics keep getting stronger. Any NBA home favorite of 6.0 or less (Celtics) that’s play in a Round 2 Game 5 of a playoff series and is coming off an away underdog SU win by 5 points or more, resulted in those reasonably sized home favorites going 8-0 SU&ATS since 1991. Those 8 home favorites won those contests by a decisive average of 20.0 points per game. Give me the Celtics minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
05-10-22 | 76ers +3 v. Heat | Top | 85-120 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
76ers @ Heat 7:30 PM ET Game# 501-502 Play On: 76ers +3.0 (10*) The 76ers are obviously a different team when Joel Embiid is healthy and able to play. They lost the first 2 games of this series by sizable margins. However, Embiid returned in Game 3 and Philadelphia went 2-0 SU&ATS since. Additionally, Jimmy Butler of Miami accounted for 73 of Miami’s 187 points (39%) in those 2 losses, and the 76ers prevented any other Heat players from putting up any big numbers. That recent defensive strategy has worked, and l look for it to be continued in Game 5. Give me the 76ers plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
05-09-22 | Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
Celtics @ Bucks 7:30 PM ET Game# 581-582 Play On: Boston +1.5 (10*) Down 2-1 in the series, I look for Boston to be playing with an extremely high degree of desperation and urgency. Boston is coming off a 103-10 loss at Milwaukee in Game 3. Nonetheless, the Celtics are 7-1 SU&ATS in their last 8 following a loss. Their only blemish to that recent team trend was a loss at Miami in a game that Boston was without its 2 top scorers Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Furthermore, Boston shot a miserable 36% in that Game 3 loss on Saturday. The Celtics are an unscathed 6-0 SU&ATS during their last 6 following a game in which they shot less than 40% and won by a decisive margin of 14.8 points per contest. Give me the Celtics on the money line. |
|||||||
05-07-22 | Celtics +2 v. Bucks | 101-103 | Push | 0 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
Celtics @ Bucks 3:30 PM ET Game# 571-572 Play On: Celtics +2.0 (5*) The Celtics bounced back from a poor performance in the series opener with a convincing 23-point win in Game 2. I look for them to carry that momentum into Game 3 in Milwaukee. Since Game 42 of their season, Boston has gone an excellent 9-2 SU on the road versus teams with a winning record. Boston was 2-0 SU&ATS at Brooklyn in their opening playoff series against a team led by superstars Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. As a matter of fact, the Celtics have gone 16-3 SU in their last 19 on the road and 2 of their losses came in games without top scorers Jayson Tatum and Jaylon Brown both being unavailable. Additionally, NBA Defensive Player of the Year and starting point guard Marcus Smart returns to the lineup today for Boston after missing Game 2 due to a thigh injury. Give me the Celtics plus the small number. |
|||||||
05-06-22 | Suns v. Mavs | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
Suns @ Mavericks 9:30 PM ET Game# 551-552 Play On: Mavericks -110 (5*) Dallas will be playing with a high degree of desperation and urgency this evening to avoid falling behind 3-0 in the series. The Mavericks have gone a stellar 31-13 SU at home this season and that includes 16-3 in their last 19. Dallas is coming off a 129-109 loss to Phoenix in Game 2. The Mavericks have gone an outstanding 10-1 SU this season following a loss by 15 points or more in their previous game and they outscored their opponents by 11.1 points per contest. Dallas is also a perfect 15-0 SU at home this season when their money line was -106 to -250. Recent NBA Playoffs betting history heavily favors the home team in this identical situation. Dallas enters today with a season long record of 56-34 (.622). The Mavericks are coming off SU&ATS losses during each of the first 2 games of this series with both coming as an away underdog. Since the 2005 NBA Playoffs, any team (Dallas) that’s playing at home in a Game 3 and is coming off away underdog ATS losses in each of the first 2 games of the series, and they possess a win percentage of .607 or better, resulted in those home teams going 14-4 SU&ATS. Give me Dallas on the money line. |
|||||||
05-04-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Suns | 109-129 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
Mavericks @ Suns 10:00 PM ET Game# 543-544 Play On: Mavericks +6.5 (5*) Phoenix walked away with a 121-114 win in the opening game of this series on Monday and barely covered as a 5.5-point favorite. However, I like the way Dallas didn’t quit in that contest despite being down by 17 on the road heading into the 4th quarter. Speaking of not quitting, Dallas is 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 following a loss and won by 12.7 points per game. The Mavericks are also 13-2 SU in their previous 15 following a loss and that’s worth noting considering they’re a sizable 6.0-point underdog tonight. Phoenix outrebounded Dallas in Game 1 by a wide margin of 51-36. Nevertheless, Dallas is a perfect 8-0 ATS this season after being -15 or worse on the boards during its previous game. Give me Dallas plus the points. |
|||||||
05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
Bucks @ Celtics 7:05 PM ET Game# 531-532 Play On: Celtics -4.5 (10*) The Celtics are coming off an embarrassing 101-89 loss in Game 1. There was a lot of rarities that occurred for that to happen which are highly improbable to occur again in Game 2. It was just the 5th time that Boston had scored 95 points or less since 12/10/21. The good news for Celtics backers is their team has gone 4-0 SU&ATS since that time immediately after scoring 95 or less and won by an average of 15.3 points per contest. Despite that low scoring output, Boston still was a respectable 18-50 (36%) on their 3-point shot attempts. Unfortunately, they went a horrendous 10-34 from inside the 3-point line. That’s an extremely rare occurrence for an NBA team to not only make just 10 two-point field goal attempts in a game, but also nearly doubling that output from 3-point territory, and especially so for a quality group like the Celtics. Lastly, the Celtics shot a miserable 33.3% from the field overall. Boston has gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 this season following a contest in which they shot less than 40% and outscored those opponents by an average of 15.2 points per game. Conversely, since the start of last season, Milwaukee is 0-4 SU&ATS after holding their opponent to 35% or worse shooting in their previous contest, and they were outscored by an average of 11.5 points per game. Give me Boston minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
|||||||
05-01-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4 | 101-89 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 54 m | Show | |
Milwaukee @ Boston 1:00 PM ET Game# 513-514 Play On: Boston -4.0 (5*) You may be surprised to know that Milwaukee has gone a dismal 5-10 ATS as an underdog this season. Furthermore, since the 2020 playoffs, Milwaukee is an uninspiring 2-5 SU and 0-7 ATS during an opening game of a series. The Celtics are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 at home versus Milwaukee. Boston has shot 47% or better in each of their previous 9 games. The Celtics are 5-0 SU in their last 5 and 8-1 SU during its previous 9. That includes covering 7 of their last 8. Since the 2019 NBA Playoffs, whenever there was a total of 209.0 or greater in Boston’s opening game of a playoff series, the Celtics were 4-1 SU&ATS while allowing a mere 92.6 points per game. Give me Boston minus the points. |
|||||||
04-29-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves +1.5 | 114-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Memphis @ Minnesota 9:00 PM ET Game# 571-572 Play On: Minnesota +1.5 (5*) The Timberwolves are down 3-2 in this series and on the brink of elimination. So playing at home with a high degree of urgency and desperation will provide them with an emotional edge in this contest. Additionally, it’s not like the Memphis Grizzlies have recent experience in closing out a playoff series and doing so on the road is a difficult chore regardless of having been there or not. Besides the fact, that you can make a solid case that Minnesota could’ve won this series in 5 games. They blew a 26-point lead at home in Game 3 and led by 10 heading into the 4th quarter in Game 5 before losing on a last second bucket by Ja Morant. The Timberwolves did cover in Game 5 as a 6-point underdog. Minnesota is 17-6 SU at home this season following an ATS cover and outscored those 23 opponents by an average of 9.5 points per game. Give me Minnesota plus the small number. |
|||||||
04-26-22 | Wolves +6 v. Grizzlies | Top | 109-111 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
Minnesota @ Memphis 7:30 PM ET Game# 541-542 Play On: Minnesota +6.0 (10*) After blowing a 26-point lead in Game 3 and losing 104-95, Minnesota bounced back with an impressive 119-118 win in Game 4. It was impressive in the sense that it was a huge emotional blow when collapsing in Game 3 and the Timberwolves were unshaken in their Game 4 performance. Minnesota also has the confidence in knowing that can win at Memphis like they did 130-117 in Game 1. Furthermore, Minnesota has played the #2 seed Memphis Grizzlies on even terms this season while splitting the 8 head-to-head matchups. This game will be much closer than many are predicting, and I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see Minnesota win straight up. However, I won’t get greed and will gladly take the points. Give me Minnesota plus |
|||||||
04-24-22 | Suns v. Pelicans +2.5 | Top | 103-118 | Win | 100 | 29 h 3 m | Show |
Phoenix @ New Orleans 9:30 PM ET Game# 527-528 Play On: New Orleans +2.5 (10*) This is the game that the Devin Booker being out of the lineup will cost Phoenix. They were able to escape with a 3-point win in Game 3 of Friday night. However, the Pelicans didn’t quit after being down 11 at the half and battled back to take a 4th quarter lead before succumbing to a late Phoenix surged sparked by Chris Paul. The Pelicans have gone an extremely profitable 7-1 SU&ATS in their last 8 following a loss during its previous game. Conversely, Phoenix is 0-4 SU during their last 4 immediately following a win. The Pelicans have shot an impressive 48.5% from the field and made 40.2% of its 3-point shot attempts throughout the first 3 games of this series. Give me New Orleans plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
04-22-22 | Bucks v. Bulls +3 | 111-81 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
Bucks @ Bulls 8:30 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Bulls +3.0 (5*) For starters, Chicago is an outstanding 27-14 SU and 25-16 (61%) ATS at home this season. That in itself lays a foundation for betting value on the home underdog in this matchup. Furthermore, Chicago is 47-37 (.560) in all games this season. Milwaukee is a poor 14-26 ATS versus teams with a winning record and that includes 4-14 ATS when facing opponents with a win percentage of .510 to .600, and they were outscored by an average of 3.7 points per game. Any NBA Playoff home underdog with a win percentage of .522 or better that’s playing in a Conference Quarterfinal series that’s tied at 1-1, and they’re coming off an away underdog of 7.5-points or greater SU win, resulted in those home underdogs going 7-0 ATS since 1995. Those home underdogs also won 5 of those 7 contests straight up. Give me the Bulls plus the points. |
|||||||
04-21-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves +2 | Top | 104-95 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Memphis @ Minnesota 7:30 ET Game# 569-570 Play On: Minnesota +2.0 (5*) The Memphis Grizzlies have enjoyed an excellent season that earned them the #2 Western Conference see. However, they’re not your typical #2 seed because of their combination of youth and limited NBA Playoff experience. This is a tough spot for them to come away with a win considering they’re playing on the road for a first time. Additionally, the Grizzlies are 0-5 SU during its previous 5 road games versus teams with a winning record. Conversely, Minnesota has gone 13-1 SU in their last 14 conference home games with their only loss coming to the #1 seed Phoenix Suns. Give me Minnesota. |
|||||||
04-20-22 | Nets v. Celtics -3 | Top | 107-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
Brooklyn @ Boston 7:00 PM ET Game# 561-562 Play On: Boston -3.0 (10*) The Nets have shot the ball extremely well over their last 3 games. Nevertheless, Boston has been red-hot offensively for a more extended period. Boston has shot 49% or better in 10 of their last 13 games. The Celtics have also scored 115 points or more in 11 of its previous 13 contests. Throughout their last 5, Boston has converted on a scalding hot 42.9% of their 3-point shots and that includes averaging 18 makes per game. Additionally, during regular season action, Boston was #1 in scoring defense (104.5 PPG), #1 in field goal percentage defense (43.4%), and #1 in 3-point percentage defense (33.9%). Give me Boston minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
04-19-22 | Pelicans +9.5 v. Suns | 125-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
New Orleans @ Phoenix 10:00 PM ET Game# 553-554 Play On: New Orleans +9.5 (5*) New Orleans dropped Game 1 of this series 110-99. Nonetheless, the Pelicans have been a resilient bunch throughout the final stretch of regular season action while going 6-1 SU&ATS in their last 7 following a loss. Conversely, Phoenix is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 following a win and lost by an average of 6.3 points per game. Moreover, they were a double-digit favorite in 2 of those 3 contests. Phoenix has also gone a poor 13-24 ATS this season following a game in which they allowed 105 points or fewer, and that includes 1-9 ATS in their last 10. Give me New Orleans plus the points. |
|||||||
04-19-22 | Wolves v. Grizzlies -6.5 | 96-124 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
Minnesota @ Memphis 8;30 PM ET Game# 551-552 Play On: Memphis -6.5 (5*) The Grizzlies have lost 2 straight heading into today’s game. Memphis has lost 3 straight games only twice this season with the last occurrence happening just short of 4 months ago. As a matter of fact, Memphis has gone 6-2 SU&ATS this season immediately following 2 consecutive losses and includes 3-0 SU&ATS during its previous 3. Memphis also an outstanding 30-12 SU and 27-15 ATS (64%) at home this season. With that being said, I look them to bounce back with a decisive win and cover in Game 2 of this series. Memphis is coming off a terrible 130-117 home loss as a 6.5-point favorite in Game 1. That defeat dropped their season record to 56-27 (.675). Any NBA Playoffs Game 2 home favorite of 5.5 or greater that’s coming off a home favorite SU loss in which they allowed 99 points or more, and they possess a season win percentage of .647 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 14-3 ATS (82.3%) since 2012. |
|||||||
04-19-22 | Hawks +7.5 v. Heat | 105-115 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
Atlanta @ Miami 7:30 PM ET Game# 549-550 Play On: Atlanta +7.5 (5*) Atlanta is coming off a poor performance in Game 1 while losing 115-91. However, the Hawks are 9-1 SU in their last 10 following a loss and includes 6-0 SU during its previous 6. Additionally, Atlanta was held below 40% shooting for a first time in 18 games. Conversely, Miami held an opponent to less than 40% shooting for the first time in 18 games. It’s highly unlikely for that to occur again today which improves the underdog Hawks chance of covering exponentially. Furthermore, since 2/6, Atlanta has gone 3-0 SU&ATS following a game in which they scored fewer than 100 points. Give me Atlanta plus the points. |
|||||||
04-18-22 | Nuggets +7 v. Warriors | 106-126 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Denver @ Golden State 10:00 ET Game# 545-546 Play On: Denver +7.0 (5*) Golden State looked like a serious world champion contender their series opening 123-107 win. That very well be the case. However, I truly believe that public betting patterns on today’s matchup which heavily favor the Warriors on both tickets and money wagered is an overreaction. Counting their regular season finale, Denver enters today on a 2-game losing streak. Nonetheless, since 11/29/2021, the Nuggets ate 5-1 SU following 2 consecutive losses and that includes 3-0 SU during away games. Give me Denver plus the points. |
|||||||
04-18-22 | Jazz v. Mavs +5.5 | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
Utah @ Dallas 5:30 PM ET Game# 543-544 Play On: Dallas +5.5 (5*) Dallas will once again be without star point-guard Luke Doncic and the line has been adjusted accordingly. They’re hopeful that Doncic will be able to return in this series at some point. Dallas can ill afford to go back Utah down 2-0 in the series after suffering a 99-93 loss in Game 1, and I fully expect them to play with a high degree of desperation tonight. Dallas has gone 12-2 SU in their last 14 following a loss. The Mavericks are also 11-3 ATS this season following a game in which they scored 95 points or fewer and outscored their opponents by an average of 9.9 points per contest. Give me Dallas plus the points. |
|||||||
04-18-22 | Raptors +7.5 v. 76ers | 97-112 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
Toronto @ Philadelphia 7:30 PM ET Game# 541-542 Play On: Toronto +7.5 (5*) Toronto is coming off a 131-111 loss in the series opener on Saturday. However, this has been a resilient Raptors team. Toronto is an impressive 7-1 SU on the road this season immediately following a loss by 15 points or more. The Raptors also lost their regular season finale. Nevertheless, they’re 7-1 SU in their last 8 this season following 2 consecutive losses. Toronto is also 16-15 SU as a road underdog this season and bettors that risked $100 per game on them made a sizable net profit of $1050. Conversely, the 76ers have gone an uninspiring 9-10 SU at home this season immediately following an ATS cover. Give me Toronto plus the points. |
|||||||
04-16-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors -6.5 | Top | 107-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Denver @ Golden State 8:30 PM ET Game# 523-524 Play On: Golden State -6.5 (10*) Stephen Curry will return to the lineup for the first time since 3/16. The Warriors went 1-6 SU in their first 7 games without Curry following his injury. However, they’ve rebounded to win their final 5 regular season games and by a decisive margin of 143.2 points per contest. The Warriors have gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 at home versus Denver while winning by 15.3 points per game. Furthermore, since the 2015 NBA Playoffs, Golden State is an unscathed 7-0 SU&ATS in 1st round contests in which they were a favorite of 6.0 to 9.0 and won by a massive average of 22.7 points per game. Give me Golden State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
04-15-22 | Hawks v. Cavs +2.5 | 107-101 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
Atlanta @ Cleveland 7:35 PM ET Game# 509-510 Play On: Cleveland +2.5 (5*) Atlanta has unequivocally been the better team than Cleveland throughout the final stretch of regular season action. However, I just don’t trust Atlanta on the road and especially as a favorite versus a team with a winning record. Specifically speaking, Atlanta has gone a dismal 0-9 SU&ATS in their last 9 away when facing a team with a winning record. That hardly bodes well for a road favorite in a high stakes game like this one. Additionally, Atlanta is 16-25 SU and 14-27 ATS on the road this season. So, their road struggles go beyond only teams with a winning record. Although Cleveland is coming off a 115-108 loss at Brooklyn this past Tuesday. I was impressed by them not quitting after falling behind by 22 in the 3rd quarter and battling back to make it a competitive game in the final minutes. Give me Cleveland plus the small number. |
|||||||
04-13-22 | Spurs v. Pelicans -5 | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Spurs @ Pelicans (Keuchel) 9:30 PM ET Game# 507-508 Play On: Pelicans -5.0 (5*) This line makes no sense to me. San Antonio opened as a 5.0-point road underdog despite taking 3 of 4 versus New Orleans this season. Despite over 60% of tickets and better than 70% of the money being wagered on the Spurs at this present time, the number has moved to 5.5 at some books. The oddsmakers and sportsbooks are begging you to take the underdog in this matchup. However, I’m not taking the bait. If it looks to me good to be too good to be true when it comes to sports betting, more times than not it is. Give me the Pelicans minus the points. |
|||||||
04-12-22 | Clippers v. Wolves -2.5 | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
LA Clippers @ Minnesota 9:30 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Minnesota -2.5 (5*) The Clippers were the hotter team in this matchup during the final stretch of regular season action. Afterall, they enter the postseason a 5-game win streak. However, 4 of those 5 games were played at home. The Clippers went 2-6 SU&ATS in their last 8 on the road. The last time these teams met, the Clippers sustained a 122-104 home loss in a game they were a 3.0-point favorite. The Clippers are an abysmal 1-11 SU&ATS this season when playing with revenge stemming from a home favorite SU loss and were outscored by 8.6 points per contest. Conversely, Minnesota has gone 7-0 SU&ATS in their previous 7 as a home favorite of 5.5 or less and won by an average of 13.7 points per contest. Give me Minnesota minus the points. |
|||||||
04-08-22 | Bucks v. Pistons +5.5 | 131-101 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
Milwaukee @ Detroit 7:10 PM ET Game# 515-516 Play On: Detroit +5.5 (5*) Milwaukee is coming off last night’s huge home win over Boston as it pertains to playoff seeding. They won that contest 127-121 but failed to cover as a 6.5-point home favorite. The Bucks will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Since the start of the 2017-2018 NBA season, teams coming off a home SU win in which they failed to cover as a favorite, and they’re playing their 3rd game in 4 days, resulted in those teams going an awful 14-36 SU (28%). Conversely, unlike Milwaukee, Detroit will be well rested and playing in only their 2nd game in 5 days. The Pistons have gone an outstanding 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games while winning 10 of those contests straight. Detroit is also an extremely profitable 5-0 ATS in their last 5 and 11-1 ATS during their previous 12 as an underdog of 8.5 or less. For a team that’s been realistically out of playoff contention for a few months the Pistons have competed hard down the final stretch of regular season action. Give me Detroit plus the points. |
|||||||
04-05-22 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -5.5 | 115-121 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Memphis @ Utah 9:10 PM ET Game# 573-574 Play On: Utah -5.5 (5*) I like this Memphis Grizzlies team a lot. However, the Grizzlies are locked into the #2 seed in the Western Conference. They can’t catch #1 seed Phoenix and no other team can catch them as well. As a result, they’re not going to take any unnecessary risks with star point-guard Ja Morant who is currently out with a knee injury. The Memphis coaching staff has also been monitoring the minutes of key players to keep them fresh for the upcoming playoffs. Utah has yet to secure one of the top 6 seeds in the Western Conference which would enable them from have to participate in the play-in tournament which is a win or go home 1-game format. Utah has lost 6 of their last 7 games but all those losses came on the road. The Jazz have gone 12-1 SU and 9-4 ATS during its previous 13 at home which includes 7-1 ATS as a favorite of 8.0 or less. Give me Utah minus the points. |
|||||||
04-05-22 | Hawks v. Raptors -3.5 | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
Atlanta @ Toronto 7:40 PM ET Game# 559-560 Play On: Toronto -3.5 (5*) Despite being a playoff team for a 2nd consecutive season, Atlanta hasn’t been good in regular season away games during that stretch. As a matter of fact, dating back to last season, the Hawks are a poor 15-28 SU and 13-30 ATS in their last 43 regular season away games. Furthermore, Atlanta is an abysmal 0-7 SU&ATS in their last 7 road games this season when facing a team with a winning record (Toronto 45-33). The Hawks are also a money draining 3-11 ATS this season as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5-points. Toronto is coming off a home loss to a red-hot Miami Heat team. Nonetheless, the Raptors are still a sparkling 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games. Additionally, Toronto is 3-0 SU&ATS in their previous 3 following a loss and won by 11.0 points per game. Give me Toronto minus the points. |
|||||||
03-30-22 | Wolves v. Raptors -2.5 | 102-125 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
Minnesota @ Toronto 7:40 PM ET Game# 567-568 Play On: Toronto -2.5 (5*) Toronto has gone a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0 or less and won by a substantial average of 18.7 points per game. Minnesota is averaging 15 made 3-point shots per game this season. Conversely, Toronto is 9-1 SU&ATS this season versus opponents that are making 14 or more 3-point shots per contest. The Raptors are a stellar 9-2 SU in their last 11 and includes 3 consecutive home wins. Give me Toronto minus the points. |