Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-03-15 | Pittsburgh +5 v. Virginia Tech | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 50 h 29 m | Show | |
100315 Play on: 5* Pittsburgh+ (139) over Virginia Tech @ 12:00 Eastern Cool with rain and thunderstorms are expected down in Blacksburg Saturday afternoon. Although this scenario normally benefits the home team, I like what Pitt has done with the change at Quarterback and the leadership of first year coach Pat Narduzzi…The HC was a defensive guru at Michigan State and you can see by the early results that the Spartans have felt is loss. In the series the Panthers have a sharp 7-1 ATS mark. The Panthers are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS this season losing a road heart breaker at Iowa 27-24 back on September 19th…They do have a huge edge here off a week of rest to straighten out some of their offensive changes. Statistically as far as total team, offensive and defensive efficiency they are ahead of Virginia Tech and improving, while Tech has regressed for their performance in a loss (28-35) to East Carolina last week on the road. The Hokies, though, formidable show 0-10 ATS as a chalk when laying -3 or higher in a revenge situation (16-21…2014) off a SU loss. This is one of those classic ACC showdown games with much on the line that I believe will insure a FG game either way…TAKE THE POINTS! |
|||||||
10-03-15 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma -6.5 | 24-44 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show | |
100315 5* Oklahoma (136) -6-1/2 over West Virginia @ 12:00 Eastern Was hoping we would accrue more line value on Friday as some public money has showed up this week on the 3-0 Mounties. That is the 3-0 West Virginia unit who has defeated Georgia Southern, Liberty and a shaky Maryland unit that returned only 4 starters to their defense. With a more experienced unit the Maryland defense shelled out over 30 points per game defensively in 2014. No doubt WVA has played the Sooners tough lately, and carrying a solid 12-6 ATS mark as a road puppy of late. Oklahoma has a huge edge coming off a week of rest with 13 RS in the till, including 12-13 first or second team key players in the Big-12, more natural talent than pesky West Virginia. The Sooners averaged 36+ plus points per game last year, and have a real test this year vs. SEC Tennessee winning on the road in 2OT 31-24. A character win, the Mounties have none! OU is 9-4 ATS in the second of true BB home games, while West Virginia is 0-4 ATS in their 4th game of the season and 5-11 ATS in conference. |
|||||||
10-02-15 | Temple -23.5 v. Charlotte | 37-3 | Win | 100 | 69 h 18 m | Show | |
4* (107) Temple over UNC-Charlotte @ 7:00 Eastern The Owls shows 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS…defeating Penn State, Cincinnati and the lesser UMass. Learning FBS unit UNCC shows 2-2 SU, 1-2 ATS defeating Georgia State and Presbyterian (FCS), while being crushed by North Teas State and falling to Florida Atlantic. The line has fluctuated between -23-1/2 and -24-1/2 this week. The Owls last played on September 19th (UMass) winning 25-23 in a come from behind heart breaker for the Minutemen. We note, Temple played their worst game of the year, flat to say the least through the majority of the game and QB Walker threw two INTs which hurt offensive opportunities. UNCC has played one more game than Temple but, have a lower echelon power rating in college football, while the Owls have played a vastly more difficult schedule with Penn State and Cincinnati as key combatants. From the fundamental statistical standpoint, both offenses have 40% effectiveness. Scoring defense has the Owls ranked #39 nationally…19.7 points per game. UNCC is allowing 30 points per game. I’ve mentioned these critical numbers considering the SOS that heavily favors Temple…we have at 21.0 points in strength. Despite QB Walker’s miscues vs. UMass he did throw for almost 400 yards. And coach Rhule has been working on certain strength patterns for this game…but, it may not matter as the Owls running game should have a huge night, especially with rain predicted for the encounter. Remember, Temple has a nice edge in weight at the line of scrimmage and their overall program experience should create a solid win. The spread is prohibitive and the Owls have not been in this road position the last ten years, but the talent and game experience (19 RS) bring us to a solid conclusion. Temple 34 UNCC 7…This is considering wet weather! |
|||||||
10-01-15 | Miami (Fla) v. Cincinnati +6.5 | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 32 h 17 m | Show | |
3* Cincinnati+ over Miami Fla. @ 7:30 Eastern Here is another game close to the East coast which is projecting some rain, about 15% at our latest review. You should take weather as a major consideration for games back east through Sunday. The 'Canes do have an edge here with rest playing last on September 19th vs. Nebraska down in Sun Life Stadium winning 36-33 in OT. But, I do like the Bearcats who are 0-6 ATS in the most recent series, they've only played once over the last ten years (LY: 34-55). They show off BB road games, bringing a super ATS marker of 5-0 as an underdog after surrendering over 35 points in their last game...lost 53-46 at Memphis covering, however. Last year on this same field Memphis beat the Bearcats 41-14, so there is improvement. Cincy is 6-4-1 ATS off BB road games and 9-6 ATS at home sandwiched between road stints...CINCINNATI! |
|||||||
09-26-15 | Georgia Southern v. Idaho OVER 67 | 44-20 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
09-26-15 | Vanderbilt +27 v. Ole Miss | Top | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 11 m | Show |
10* VANDERBILT+ over Ole Miss SEC GAME OF THE MONTH BDS Not afraid to go against the Rebels here, especially considering they have Florida up next on the schedule. Remember Ole Miss upset Alabama last 43-37 in Tuscaloosa as an 8-1/2 point underdog. There were some incredible cirumstances, including turnovers which served the Rebs well. However, they enter a true dead spot Saturday, and will be lacking the energy to advance up and down the field consistently...considering there were around 100 plays ran last time out. Last year Vandy was CRUSHED by Ole Miss 41-3...but, the Commies have 18 RS now that will surely be ready to fire off against a unit "expecting" to win...TAKE THE POINTS as the Commies are 7-1 ATS in Mississippi! |
|||||||
09-26-15 | Northern Illinois +5 v. Boston College | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
09-26-15 | Kansas v. Rutgers -13.5 | 14-27 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 22 m | Show | |
5* Rutgers over Kansas No doubt the Scarlet Knights have had off field issues again, this time prior to the Norfolk State opener. But, the table is set Saturday for a HUGE win at home over suffering Kansas who is 2-9 ATS vs. N/C foes and 6-15-1 ATS in a road setting. Remember this is a KU unit that is 9-39 SU, losers of 30 straight road games. They have just 7 starters back, losing 55-23 to Memphis and 41-38 to FCS NDS....Overall, Rutgers passing game should rip the secondary of Kansas. Plus the Jayhawks have a faulty (#116) special teams unit which should allow the Knights a break or two for key field position...MUST WIN FOR RUTGERS! |
|||||||
09-26-15 | LSU v. Syracuse UNDER 47 | 34-24 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
09-25-15 | Stanford v. Oregon State +14 | 42-24 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
3* Oregon State+ over Stanford Just can't make this a huge play on this encounter because of my personal appreciation of the Cardinal program, and especially this surprising football team. In addition, this is the second of back-to-back road conference games with a short week...Always the home team has some advantage in preparation time. But this situation has added props as Stanford has Arizona next week. Stanford 2-1 SU losing to well coached NW in week #1 on the road, but have bounced back vs. UCF and USC as we predicted last week as a SU UNDERDOG winner. They have 13 starters returning, but just 4 defensively. Oregon State coming off a 5-7 season brings 10 RS. Did win 35-21 last week over San Jose State so will be arriving in a positive mind set....considering the Stanford series edge. What I like mostly here is the LETDOWN THEORY knowing SU has 'Zona next. Please note, Stanford is a perfect 0-5 ATS as a chalk laying -3 or higher coming off a SU underdog win....With so much emotion expended last time, I'll back the Beavers to keep this close. Good Luck! |
|||||||
09-19-15 | Rutgers v. Penn State UNDER 46.5 | 3-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
10* PENN STATE/RUTGERS UNDER THE TOTAL BIG TEN TRIPLE CROWN PKG. BDS |
|||||||
09-19-15 | Stanford +9.5 v. USC | 41-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show | |
5* STANFORD+ over USC CFB REVENGE GAME OF THE WEEK |
|||||||
09-19-15 | Pittsburgh +4.5 v. Iowa | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
10* PITTSBURGH+ OVER IOWA BIG-10 UPSET ALERT TOP PLAY BDS |
|||||||
09-19-15 | Florida v. Kentucky +3.5 | Top | 14-9 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
10* KENTUCKY over Florida SEC TOP PLAY ALERT BDS YOU CAN SAVE BY PURCHASING OUR SEC TRIPLE CROWN PACKAGE. |
|||||||
09-19-15 | Texas Tech v. Arkansas OVER 70 | 35-24 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
5* ARKANSAS/TEXAS TECH OVER 71 SEC BEST BET TOTAL BDS |
|||||||
09-19-15 | South Carolina +17 v. Georgia | 20-52 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 8 m | Show | |
09/19/15 Play on: 4* South Carolina+ 17 (145) over Georgia @ 6:00 Eastern Carolina was clearly waxed last week vs. Kentucky 26-22, yet at Columbia, it was a disgrace. By the way, that’s back-to-back wins for the ‘Cats vs. SC. Now QB Mitch is gone for SC with an injury, so QB Orth must start in what is clearly a MUST WIN SEC game for the Gamecocks. South Carolina suffered lacking “O” talent, only 4 RS on that side of the ball. They do have 8 experienced defensive personnel, including 7 seniors. SC is 4-1 ATS as an underdog of late and 4-1 SU in the series. Georgia is 2-0 SU after dispensing of Vandy 31-14, but Chubb and company managed only 105 yards rushing. Last years’ Commodore defense gave away 33+ points a game, while the attacking offenses managed 184 yards per game on the ground. My point, if the SC can run the football successfully, they will truly challenge the “expected” winner Georgia. The ‘Dawgs have ‘Bama two weeks down the road, don’t think they are not already perfaying the landscape. Alabama last played Georgia in 2012 winning 32-28 in the SEC Title Game. We know the ‘Dawgs are 29-6 SU at home, but come 11-11-1 ATS in Athens. As a chalk in conference…24-33 ATS, 2-6 ATS in their first SEC game at home. Just for VALUE, feel SOUTH CAROLINA! |
|||||||
09-19-15 | Georgia Tech v. Notre Dame +3 | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 52 m | Show | |
4* NOTRE DAME+ over Georgia Tech CFB TRAP GAME OF THE WEEK BDS Analysis to follow Friday! |
|||||||
09-19-15 | Auburn +7 v. LSU | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
10* Auburn+ over LSU SEC TOP PLAY ALERT BDS |
|||||||
09-19-15 | Louisiana Tech +10 v. Kansas State | Top | 33-39 | Win | 100 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
CFB TOP PLAY UPSET ALERT Play on: 10* Louisiana Tech +10 nothing lower, over Kansas St...We note, 13 RS for the Bulldogs off Southern and WKU. No doubt, Kst their toughest opposition thus far. Kst has just 12 starters back, and now have frosh QB starting.Granted Bill Snyder is a great coach, but he has week off coming, b/4 opening in conferece vs. OkSt. Tech is 4-1 ATS in the second of BB road games, and was successful last season at 5-0 ATS as an underdog, while going 5-0 ATS off a SU loss. The loss to Western Kentucky gives all sorts of value. LT is monster 17-4-1 ATS on the road vs. a winning record at home by the chalk. Remember Kst appears to be somewhat over valued this early in the season considering the drop-off in returning starters. |
|||||||
09-19-15 | Air Force +24.5 v. Michigan State | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 1 h 11 m | Show | |
5* AIR FORCE+ over Michigan State BIG-10 TRIPLE CROWN PACKAGE BDS |
|||||||
09-12-15 | Temple +7 v. Cincinnati | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 72 h 59 m | Show | |
091215 Play on: 5* Temple+ (321) over Cincinnati @ 8:00 Eastern This was our BEST BET submitted on Monday in the national Wise Guys’ Contest. As we predicted last week Temple would surprise everyone vs. Penn State considering head coach Rhule brought back 19 starters. Temple has lost to Cincinnati 14-6, 38-20 and 34-10 the last three seasons. Revenge does not even count the anger flowing inside the Owls program. If QB Walker of Temple stays under control, fully expect SU win on the road. The Bearcats led last week with a cupcake and won easily. Cincinnati returns only 13 starters, 5 on defense. Look for the Temple running game to once again control tempo. The Bearcats are 1-3-1 ATS as a single lined chalk at home, Owls 6-1 ATS after Penn State. |
|||||||
09-12-15 | Rice v. Texas -14 | 28-42 | Push | 0 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
5* Texas -14 not higher...over Rice Talented differential favoring the 'Horns, a pissed Texas unit mind you, after being throttled last week by Notre Dame in front of a national audience. Fully expect HC Charlie Strong to have the visitor SKY HIGH to go against a CUSA school returning just 9 starters, 3 on defense. UT had trouble scoring last week vs. the strong and quick defense of ND, not here. The visitor is 0-4 ATS in this series, with the chalk 5-1 ATS L6...Also, Rice 4-12 ATS vs. Big-12 schools! |
|||||||
09-12-15 | East Carolina +21 v. Florida | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 8 m | Show | |
4* East Carolina+ over Florida As we did last week, looking for DD underdogs that have value vs. an over stated foe. Despite the injury on offense, we see the Pirates making a game of this considering they did the same last season against South Carolina in a comparable spot. Florida has their first SEC game next with improving Kentucky, so their emotions just many not be focused for four quarters...Good Luck! |
|||||||
09-12-15 | Oklahoma v. Tennessee +1 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 144 h 22 m | Show | |
5* Tennessee over Oklahoma...SEC Game of the Week Classic encounter down in Knoxville with national title implications...OU crushed hapless Akron 41-3, UT smashed talented Bowling Green (15 RS) who has a solid trigger and receivers 59-20. Oklahoma shows 1-4 ATS off a SU loss, 3-7 ATS L10 on the board. Tennessee is 6-1 ATS on grass and 5-1 ATS at home. The Vols only weakness right now is an injured secondary, so they will rely heavily on their vaunted pass rush to put pressure, while reducing the angles of QB Mayfield (388) who had a solid outing vs. lesser Akron. We note, big time RB Perrine was slowed in that huge win. No matter, Tennessee has the running attack and the improving OL to create gaps for Hurd and Kamara who ran large last week. With this being a REVENGE (34-10..2014) game have much more respect for home standing UT, looking for national focus...remember 18 starters return. |
|||||||
09-12-15 | Western Michigan v. Georgia Southern +4 | Top | 17-43 | Win | 100 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
10* Georgia Southern+ over Western Michigan CFB LETDOWN THEORY APPLIED BDS Last week Western gave a great go of it against mighty Michigan State, coming up with a difficult emotional loss. The next big game for WM is in two weeks when they play hated Ohio State. So, it will be a while before the school faces a unit carrying an up psychology (next Murray State) Georgia Southern was shutout by West Virginia last week 44-0! So, why the short post? Love this situation...Good Luck. |
|||||||
09-12-15 | Notre Dame v. Virginia UNDER 48.5 | 34-27 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 58 m | Show | |
09-12-15 | Army v. Connecticut -7.5 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -113 | 52 h 37 m | Show |
10* UCONN -7-1/2 over Army CFB REVENGE GAME OF THE WEEK BDS Okay, we know Army exited the Huskies last season to the tune of 35-21 laying -3 on the road. UConn brings 14 starters, 8 on defense doing a solid job vs. talented Villanova last week. Army we thought would handle Fordham (not so) last week considering the Rams were competing with a reshuffled and changing defense? The line opened -3-1/2 here, and climbed to -13, -14 considering the aformentioned note. Fordham won SU 37-35 with their "D" giving back almost 400 yards of total offense, 256 on the ground to the Cadets. UConn beat 'Nova 20-15, containing the 'Cats offensively (303). How talented is Villanova? Despite losing, they are ranked #2 in the FCS this week. Since, the 'Huskies are in friendly confines this week, and face an Army unit 2-19 ATS on the road...UCONN! |
|||||||
09-11-15 | Miami (Fla) -18 v. Florida Atlantic | 44-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
091115 Play on: 4* (303) Miami Florida over Florida International @ 8:00 Eastern Can’t help but, see this is as a blowout for superior ‘Canes. Miami Florida is 6-0 ATS in SU lined wins! Further, the last time these two played was in 2013 and Miami won easily 34-6, but were laying -31. As you can see there’s been a drastic line reduction. MU shows with just 11 returning starters, but have solid skilled people to take advantage of the FAU (3-9) defense that allowed 34+ points per game last season. Miami plays in the ACC (FAU…CUSA) which allows for a major differential in SOS. Plus HC Al Golden is under fire down in Florida and will need a huge season to hold his job. FAU lost to Tulsa last week in OT and surrendered 618 yards defensively (smallish unit). Realize the Owls are an outstanding unit as an underdog, but lines makers have simply over compensated…value Miami Fla! |
|||||||
09-06-15 | Purdue +7 v. Marshall | 31-41 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 16 m | Show | |
4* Purdue+ over Marshall The last time these two met was in 2012, Boilers won 51-41 laying 16...Herd grabbed the cash. Now the positioning has changed drastically with UM being a -7 chalk at the Westgate with the line opening at -8-1/2. CUSA Herd return a solid bunch of 11 starters, but injuries of hurt in the spring and QB Cato (3,903) and 40 touchdowns passes have graduated. The defense had their best year in quite sometime last time out with 8 starters holding the opposition to only 21 points-per-game...This is a much different cast now. Purdue brings 15 starters form a 3-9 team that I mind you plays in the Big-10. They have an edge QB today, but need the rushing game to step keeping UM "O" on the bench. The defense allowed almost 32-points a game last year, but schedule much more difficult than the CUSA. In addition, HC Hazell has had BB losing seasons of 1-11 and 3-9 as mentioned prior. To say he is under fire, is an understatement, but they have a very rough schedule. Granted the Herd has more speed here, but the adjustment at QB, injuries. Purdue was 4-1 ATS on the road last year and should be highly competitive this afternoon, at least covering the number...TAKE THE POINTS! |
|||||||
09-05-15 | Texas +10 v. Notre Dame | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
090515 10* (197) TEXAS +10 over Notre Dame @ 7:30 Eastern Nationally televised encounter on FOX grabs the nation’s late night attention with Notre Dame on the agenda. However, our power rating talent differential has the Irish by just 7 considering, UT has refueled with injured player’s returning and quality transfers. Granted they come off a 6-7 season in Charlie Strong’s first year in Austin, but the cupboard is not bare. The national realm of reality will give great respect to ND (+8-1/2) after beating LSU 31-28 in the Music City Bowl. However, they did lose QB Golson who amassed 3,445 yards throwing the football, garnering 29 touchdowns. Believe, this is an early season major concern for respected coach Kelly. Texas is 3-1 ATS in game #1, ND 3-5-1 ATS. Kelly is only 28-30-4 ATS in non-conference games and 17-19-4 ATS as a chalk L5 years. Obviously, ND has been super at home 23-8 ATS to be exact, but they never have lost a more definitive player than Golson since Kelly has been in South Bend…and now must go from being an underdog vs. LSU to being a DD favorite in game #1…TAKE THE POINTS! |
|||||||
09-05-15 | UL-Lafayette +17 v. Kentucky | 33-40 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Play on: 5* UL-Lafayette +17 over Kentucky @ 7:00 Eastern LATE MONEY MOVE....no analysis |
|||||||
09-05-15 | Penn State v. Temple +7 | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 15 m | Show | |
166 Play on: 4* Temple +7 over Penn State @ 3:30 Eastern Rarely go against the Nits, especially versus an opponent they have owned SU historically. However, the Owls of Temple have a legit shot at winning. In our published Twitter (BradD_QPicks) notes we mentioned that HC Rhule has 19 starters returning, 10 on defense which held the opposition to 17.5 points on average. Improving their ability to score consistently (23.1) is critical this season. Penn State has 15 starters back from a 7-6 season that ended with a 31-30 win over Boston College in the Pinstripe Bowl. Prior Penn State had lost back-to-back games to Illinois and Michigan State. In the 2014 Penn St. 30-13 win, the Owls were in the game going into the third quarter (6-3), but turnovers destroyed any chance of winning. QB P. J. Walker threw 4 interceptions, so I fully expect to see this encounter being a low scoring game with each unit looking for control on the ground. Playing in Philadelphia and coming away with a win can only help recruiting for coach Rhule and the school, and that probability increases with this being game #1 of the season. The Owls are 4-0 ATS their first line game of the season and 7-4 ATS as a home dog. Penn State does show 0-3-1 ATS L4 on the road and a PERFECT 0-3 ATS as a road chalk in their initial road game of the season. In the closing, the Nits have dropped back-to-back games ATS in a game #1 situations the next season after losing SU in their final regular season game the prior season…Penn State lost to Michigan State in 2014. |
|||||||
09-05-15 | Virginia +19.5 v. UCLA | Top | 16-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
Play on: 10* Virginia +19-1/2 over UCLA Just like our other 10* today we are searching for value in the talent differentials to see how much of the spread booked is warranted. Here is another situation where you will pay for the national publicity affored the chalk. The Bruins have 17 starters back, but are replacing QB Hundley (3,155...QBR:152.7) with inexperience. Yes, having 10 offensive starters is a solid basis for beginnig the season, especially considering the Bruins went 10-3 SU, and show off a game #1 win in 2014 over this same Virginia (-20) 28-20 on the road. UCLA laid DD last season vs. Virginia, Memphis, Utah and Colorado...0-4 ATS. Now they show w/o the trigger, Hundley. The Bruins were just 2-4 ATS at home, and 8-8 ATS in non-conference, 31-35 ATS L5 seasons overall (2-3 ATS game #1 home). Virginia has 10 starters with QB Johns taking over for QB Lambert who transfered to Georgia...Johns had a higher efficiency rating than the latter. The projected starting group on both sides of the ball has, at this writing, 18 upper class experienced players. The critical improvement to enhance that 5-7 record from last season, is the ability of the running game (3.7) to deplete time, control tempo during given periords of the game. For sure HC London (23-38) is under HUGE HEAT and needs a winning season and a few surprising upsets to enhance his star. He is 11-6 as an UNDERDOG...TAKE THE POINTS! |
|||||||
09-05-15 | Kent State +13 v. Illinois | 3-52 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
3* KENT STATE+ over Illinois Since game was PPD. and Brad Diamond Sports had additional research time, we have moved this to a system 3* APPRECIATION rating, the game was a FREE SELECTION Friday...Good Luck! |
|||||||
09-04-15 | Fordham v. Army -3.5 | 37-35 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
4* ARMY -3-1/2 over Fordham Don't get to involved with FCS types, but a good unit in Patriot League entry Fordham. HC Moorhead in his 4th year brings a 29-10 unit, 14-4 unit league wide into battle. Going 11-3 SU is remarkable, but this team was gutted from last year losing quality players on both offense and defense. Because of the road site, expect the Rams to try and control tempo with big time RB Chase Edmonds. The reason, high flying QB Nebrich and his wide outs have graduated. We hear a QB transfer from Marshall will get the call tonight. That's never good news in initial stint in hostile territory. The defense lost four really solid plays and the PK is gone too. Army shows off a 4-8 season, but 2nd year coach Jeff Monken is under some heat considering the Cadets have not had a winning season since 2010. He does have 10 starters returning, and new QB Adam Bradshaw appears to be a very talented and athletic signal-caller that will run the option attack. If Army is to win and cover here they will need to improve on their points allowed (32.9) stat from 2014. What will the Cadets defense is their familarity with the new 3-4 defense that was installed last season. Where Army has a solid edge is on special teams with their coverability and speed. Last year Army (+3-1/2) defeated Fordham 42-31 at home prior to the Navy game...so, this time around there will be no other focus. HUGE GAME FOR ARMY! |
|||||||
09-04-15 | Colorado v. Hawaii +9 | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 1186 h 55 m | Show | |
4* Hawaii+ over Colorado No doubt differential talent compilation favoring Buffs, but Vegas shows respect withholding DD knowing public may ride that way , no matter. Although Buffs have almost everyone back, we note that was from a 2-10 unit, losing by a -70 on the road in 2014. Make no mistake we respect Buffs who have a rough go every week, and show loaded with "O" talent. But playing in PARADISE always difficult in week #1. If Hawaii is using USC gun Wittek at the trigger, this situation could be outright upset. Hawai is 9-4 ATS in non-conference....TAKE! |
|||||||
09-03-15 | South Carolina -2.5 v. North Carolina | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 46 h 43 m | Show | |
KNEE-JERK GAME OF THE WEEK 5* SOUTH CAROLINA -2-1/2 over North Carolina @ 6:00 Eastern Okay, the houses around Columbia are starting to shake! First off, the Gamecocks have now lost twice to Kentucky in the last five years. Second the ‘Ol Ball Coach is aging after an unsatisfactory 7-6 season, but that was partly due to a rough SEC schedule that illustrated heart breaking close losses to the aforementioned Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee and Auburn. In addition, SC did so with the talented Dylan Thompson (3,564) at quarterback who had 26 touchdowns vs. 11 interceptions…He is gone! So, Spurrier will lead with Connor Mitch who has no real game experience…tough nut for sure, in an opener at a neutral site against a unit (UNC) in 17-point revenge from a 27-10 loss in 2013. Opposing Tar Heels show with 17 starters returning, 10 on offense. QB Williams (3,068) again runs the quicksilver group that averaged 33.2 points per game. Just remember the UNC defense shadowed 39.0 points per outing…#56 nationally (390). UNC finished 6-7 and LOST to Rutgers 40-21 in the Quick Lane Bowl. The last time UNC played an SEC unit was in 2010 losing 30-24 to LSU. For me the fundamental edge is the defensive side of the ball for SC which should be faster and more improved this time around, while showing with the #11 rating in total defense (315.5) from 2014, 4.65 yards per play. Remember too, Spurrier is most dangerous when flying under the radar…the line opened SC -3, was quickly taken down to -2-1/2. The ‘Ol Ball Coach is normally not a play laying money on the road, but the ‘Cocks are 13-7 ATS vs. non-conference types. And, 11-3-1 ATS -3 or under. Further, HC Larry Fedora of North Carolina in his 4th year is just 16-18-1 ATS overall and 2-5-1 ATS in non-conference. UNC is 6-4 SU in game #1, while South Carolina is 9-1 SU. If QB Mitch stays away from early turnovers fully expect the GAMECOCKS to survive…27-22. |
|||||||
09-03-15 | Florida International +13 v. Central Florida | 15-14 | Win | 100 | 3 h 9 m | Show | |
5* Florida International +13 over Central Florida This is our late move from the line standpoint as the number continues to deflate (excuse me Tom) on the Strip. This actually opened around 17 in August. The Golden Panthers bring back 15 starters from a 4-8 SU season, a major change over the 1-11 card in 2013. FIU even showed improvement ATS going 8-4 to the number after a 4-8 season. They lost four games by three points or less and seem to be on the up-tick recruiting. How the Panthers win this SU is by controlling the tempo with their developing running attack that has shown a better OL this spring. The defense improved by 12 points per game last season and with 8 RS should be testy here. Central Florida is not to be taken lightly, however, they have just 9 RS and face a big timer at Stanford on the 12th. Normally, would not go against the savvy George O'Leary but, his club could be taking this pesky visitor to lightly..TAKE THE POINTS! |
|||||||
01-12-15 | Ohio State +7 v. Oregon | 42-20 | Win | 100 | 153 h 45 m | Show | |
5* Ohio State +7 over Oregon ***Alert As you know our BOWL GOY cashed HUGE with Ohio State winning SU as an UNDERDOG over Alabama...Here is our BEST BET for the Monday Championship Game. I will return later this week with a complete analysis, and I thank you for your patience and a GREAT COLLEGE FOOTBALL SEASON! 010815....***Alert After our research was finally completed we must now tell you the line is keyed at Oregon -6 over Ohio State. I am not thrilled with the change considering the public domain had part of the action, along with the sharp money. Remember the Oregon football program has never defeated Ohio State, however this could be the VERY BEST Oregon team in history. ADVANTAGE...Ohio State does have a huge edge in practice time, and I'm talking about the normal 18 practices allowed for bowl games and spring preparation. Since the Buckeye student body has not returned to school HC Meyer can call practice as much as needed...Oregon is following strict limitations and adherence to what the NCAA guidelines are for their situation. Ohio State shows Vegas success vs. Pac-10 units with a 9-2-1 ATS edge. SPECIAL NOTE: CHECK BACK SUNDAY NIGH FOR A POSSIBLE TOTAL MOVE |
|||||||
01-04-15 | Toledo v. Arkansas State +3.5 | Top | 63-44 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
01-02-15 | UCLA v. Kansas State +1.5 | 40-35 | Loss | -106 | 17 h 55 m | Show | |
4* Kansas State + over UCLA Just a quick note on the betting cycles in Las Vegas. Customers from California and Arizona visit the Strip often on NFL weekends and weeks and when COLLEGE FOOTBALL hits prime time large. This week was a case in point. We note with PAC-10 teams are looking solid in the bowls, especially Oregon and Stanford....dollars have hit the UCLA side, and we thank the public domain for inspiring this play. Statistically, the Wildcats have many edges and bring coach Snyder to the forefront in a BIG GAME. In closing, Kansas State is 16-5 ATS off a SU loss, while UCLA is 1-4 ATS vs. the Big-12. TAKE ALL THE POINTS! |
|||||||
01-01-15 | Ohio State +9 v. Alabama | Top | 42-35 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
10* OHIO STATE+ over Alabama....COLLEGE BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR. WHAT URBAN AND LITTLE NICKY HAVE DONE FOR THE INTEREST LEVEL OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL HAS BEEN AMAZING. NUMEROUS REPORTING OUTLETS HAVE SMACKED BOTH COACHES IN THEIR LEAD ADDITIONS WHICH FOCUS ON THE BOWL SEASON. MORE THEY HAVE BEEN FEATURING THIS ENCOUNTER AS "ANOTHER BOWL WIN FOR ALABAMA," BUT TRUST ME IT WILL BE A VERY COMPETITIVE GAME BETWEEN TWO OLD FRIENDS. REMEMBER THE BUCKEYES ARE SOLID AT THE LINE OF SCRIMMAGE, AND WON'T BE INTIMATED BY THE 'BAMA MONIKER. STILL IT REALITY THAT THE TIDE IS A MORE EFFECTIVE TEAM AND PROGRAM SINCE THEY ARE COMING OUT OF THE SEC. AND HAVE TWICE AS MANY 5* RECRUITS PLAYING ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BALL THAN THE BUCKEYES. BUT, AFTER SEEING THE 1-3 SU RECORD FOR THE SEC IN BOWL GAMES, I AM EVEN MORE CONFIDENT IN THIS SELECTION...REMEMBER URBAN MEYER WILL NOT BE CAUGHT NAPPING VS. #1. SOLID INDICATORS FROM TECHNICAL DATA ILLUSTRATE ALABAMA 5-13-1 ATS L19 GAMES OUT. MORE IMPORTANT THE CRIMSON TIDE ARE AN ALMOST PERFECT 0-7-1 ATS L8 NON-CONFERENCE GAMES...CLOSE! |
|||||||
01-01-15 | Florida State +10 v. Oregon | Top | 20-59 | Loss | -130 | 50 h 23 m | Show |
HAPPY NEW YEAR...BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR GOES ONLY WED. MORNING 01/01/15 010115 FIRST MEETING 10* Florida State +10 over Oregon Rose Bowl We are going against our summer forecast of Oregon and Oklahoma in the FINAL GAME of the season. The Sooners out early because of injuries and so-so quarterbacking, while #3 Oregon we feel will be upset on Thursday by the Seminoles. We agree that Oregon (12-1) is a super unit, especially with QB Mariota (Mr. Heisman) at quarterback, while being strong at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Ditto, Florida State who is UNDEFEATED at 13-0 and #2 in the country carrying the same assets with Mariota an edge over Winston at the helm. FSU has won 6 straight bowl games. No matter, whoever wins goes to the first ever CFB Championship game on January 12th. As the former national champions Florida State has had a mixture of issues on the team this season, and still managed to continue their winning streak currently at 29 games. The Sems have garnered one of the best post season SU records in the nation with a 27-14-2 life time record. We can’t discount the relative talent and history of the Ducks program. HC Helfrich does not have the pedigree of Jimbo Fisher, but his club closed the season winning eight straight games. Their only this season was to pesky Arizona way back in early October 31-24. Still, the Ducks avenged that difficult loss with a PAC-12 Championship defeating Arizona 51-13. Unlike FSU the Ducks have a losing post season record at 12-15. As said earlier it appears this will be a super duel between QB Winston (3,359) who threw for 24 touches. QB Mariota (3,783) threw for 38 touches. Plus the kid ran for 669 yards which shows his duality. The skill position talent for the opposing units appear dead even with the exception of FSU who has a first round draftee in WR Greene (1,306) who hauled in 93 catches. Also, the Oregon defense can ill afford to ignore the down field abilities of Nick O’Leary a legit first rounder too. We understand the Sems defense has fallen off somewhat this season. It certainly helps to have a pair of receiving outlets like WR Rashad Greene and TE Nick O'Leary to count on. Greene, FSU's all-time leading receiver, had another hugely productive year, hauling in 93 balls, for 1,306 yards and seven TDs. O'Leary, a First-Team All-American, took home the Mackey Award as the nation's top tight end after catching 47 balls, for 614 yards and six scores. Also, there is slight edge in RB with Karlos Williams of FSU who scored ten touches this season. Surely, I sound biased, but that’s the reason for the selection. The actual winning edge I believe will come from FSU PK Aguayo who is a first team AA this season. We know Florida State’s has had some bad games allowing the opposition to breath down their necks, but that’s asset here. We close with a wonderful tech as the Sems are 8-1-1 ATS bowl games. We know the Ducks have covered 8 straight, however, it’s FSU 38 Oregon 37. |
|||||||
01-01-15 | Wisconsin v. Auburn OVER 63.5 | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
5* Wisconsin/Auburn OVER the total We two schools who love to run the football, but the War Eagle looks to have added edges in speed and motivation. Wisconsin's Barry Alvarez once again takes over the coaching duties with their former coach defecting late in the season. So, the talking heads have asked, "Can the Badgers be responsive to the former coach after being manhandled by Ohio State 59-0." We see Wisconsin trying to be aggressive with their passing game down the field since it came up short against Ohio St, and the fact Auburn' "D" is ranked #80 nationally?? Although Wisconsin will improve offensively, questions do surface considering their TO probability in key situations. No doubt turnovers as a norm has increased the probability of "cheap points." No doubt Auburn is a depressed defense, but with their speed on offense, I would expect at least a 5 touchdown outing for QB Nick Marshall and that famed triple option offense. PROJECTED MATH CHARTS...Clearly indicate a HIGH scoring affair with each team getting into the 30's in the fourth quarter. SPECIAL NOTE: This selection is part of our Thursday Triple Crown. We will return later this morning we will return with our GOY, also part of the TCP. HAVE A GREAT DAY! |
|||||||
12-31-14 | Georgia Tech v. Mississippi State -6 | 49-34 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
12-30-14 | Louisville +7 v. Georgia | 14-37 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
4* Louisville +7 or higher....over Georgia Realize this is like pulling teeth going against a quality SEC unit with an outstanding coach. However, my whole basis for this side is the Louisville defense and their team speed. Overall, including SEC types Louisville is ranked HIGH in many "D" categories this season. So, we are projecting a lower scoring game than the posted number. However, more importantly we note the post season successes for SEC teams when they face Big-12 units (Arkansas and A&M), but this is an ACC unit that can run sideline to sideline on both sides of the ball (i.e.,Clemson, etc.). Also, the EMOTIONAL ANGLE IS ALL LOUISVILLE. |
|||||||
12-30-14 | Notre Dame +7 v. LSU | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 461 h 30 m | Show | |
No Comment, ck. back later. |
|||||||
12-29-14 | Texas v. Arkansas -7 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 3 h 36 m | Show | |
12-29-14 | West Virginia v. Texas A&M OVER 65 | 37-45 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
12-29-14 | West Virginia v. Texas A&M +1.5 | 37-45 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
12-27-14 | Penn State v. Boston College UNDER 40 | 31-30 | Loss | -106 | 32 h 29 m | Show | |
12-27-14 | Penn State +3 v. Boston College | Top | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
12-27-14 | Duke v. Arizona State -7.5 | 31-36 | Loss | -102 | 49 h 40 m | Show | |
122714 Play on: 4* Arizona State (230) over Duke @ 2:00 Eastern SUN BOWL BEST Both schools come in after sensational 9-3 seasons. Against the spread ASU has a slight advantage at 6-3 with the Blue Devils 5-3 on the season. On offense, the Sun Devils are led by QB Kelly who threw for 1,874 yards with 20 touches. For the high flying Blue Devils Quarterback Anthony Boone leads the way with 2,507 yards throwing with 17 touches. In addition Boone ran for 5 touches complimenting his arm abilities. PF & PA found the Blue Devils with a net edge at +11.9 vs. +9.3 for Arizona State. Defensively, the Blue Devils (#67) are very talented this season ranking #18 in 3rd down defense and #20 in scoring defense. ASU (#84) illustrates a unit that is rated #6 in defensive touchdowns. Remember the Sun Devils have a solid defense and faced much stiffer competition than Duke. The definitive differences between these two is SOS and the fact ASU has a more prolific running attack that will control the clock. Further, ASU comes in ready to explode as they support a 5-1 ATS mark off a SU loss. |
|||||||
12-26-14 | Illinois +6 v. Louisiana Tech | 18-35 | Loss | -104 | 26 h 20 m | Show | |
12-24-14 | Fresno State v. Rice -2 | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
12-24-14 | Central Michigan v. Western Kentucky OVER 65.5 | 48-49 | Win | 100 | 182 h 35 m | Show | |
We will have a complete analysis later this week...Thank you. |
|||||||
12-24-14 | Central Michigan v. Western Kentucky -3.5 | 48-49 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
12/24/14 5* Western Kentucky (218) over Central Michigan @ 12:00 Eastern Bahama Bowl Best Most of you know our Annual 20* College Football Game of the Year was Western Kentucky over Army. We’ve stayed close to the ‘Toppers this year simply because QB Doughty and company run a gun slingers offense. With so much speed on the outside and the running and throwing abilities of Doughty the ‘Toppers even upset Marshall 67-66, a game we mistakenly stayed away from in these pages. No matter, WKU has defeated Bowling Green, came close to defeating the Illini, defeated Army, Navy, UTEP and Old Dominion. Central Michigan comes in 7-5 as does Western Kentucky. The Chips have defeated Purdue, NIU and Miami Ohio. In the SOS rating systems most consider the ‘Toppers playing a more difficult schedule. Believe me the fact that WKU beat Marshall sells me on this game. Plus, the EMOTIONAL ANGLE is all Western Kentucky as in 2012 the Chips defeated their opposition (WKU) in the Little Caesars’ Bowl 24-21. Statistically, WKU is +5.0 vs Central’s +2.0 in the seasons overall net point differentials. We note, the passing of WKU allows a huge advantage for the school down south. Realize Central Michigan will be a much more physical defense, especially stopping the run. But, remember CMU is negative in the turnover factor which +WKU. The Chips were 2-4 ATS as an underdog this season. Granted CMU comes in with some success in bowl games carrying 3-1-1 ATS record. However, the Chips are 5-15-1 ATS vs. non-conference teams. And, since this is being played on grass we have to mention the ‘Toppers are 14-3-1 ATS on that surface. I believe you will see a wide open game with Western Kentucky winning by 7. |
|||||||
12-22-14 | BYU +2 v. Memphis | 48-55 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 38 m | Show | |
12-20-14 | South Alabama -3 v. Bowling Green | Top | 28-33 | Loss | -108 | 81 h 32 m | Show |
12/20/14 Play on: 10* (209) South Alabama -3 (not higher) over Bowling Green @ 9:15 Eastern Site: Montgomery, Alabama Camellia Bowl This is the first ever Camellia Bowl and the first post season event for the Jags. So without hesitation, I can estimate the EMOTIONAL ANGLE rests with the team from Alabama, especially since this is a “home” game for SA. Also, BG comes in off three straight losses. If you know how I think, it should register with you “that speed kills.” On the playing field the Bowling Green defense can’t stay with the South Alabama offense (6-6) on the edges. This projects quick scoring drives for the Jags, while the Bowling Green (7-6) stogy offense will be unable to keep up for four quarters. You see, the Falcons “D” is rated #106 in scoring defense. And, #104 in defensive efficiency at (7.87)…By the way, that plays into a very decent ranking for SA at #56 with a +.01 in defensive efficiency. The big play maker for South Alabama is QB Brandon Bridge who is a senior and carries a 6-5 frame. Bridge has thrown for over 1,600 yards this season with 14 touches. Controlling the youngster will cause huge problems for that BG defense…JAGS ROLL! |
|||||||
12-20-14 | Utah -3 v. Colorado State | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 92 h 53 m | Show | |
12/20/14 Play on: 4* Utah (205) over Colorado State @ 3:30 Eastern Las Vegas Bowl Site: Las Vegas, Nevada This is a strange game right from the start as these two played in the same conference for 57 years. Utah #23 leads the all-time series 55-22-2. The Rams show with the better record 10-2 SU, while Utah played the more difficult schedule 8-4 SU coming into the Saturday battle. Utah has won 10-of-11 SU in bowl action. The key emotional angle in the game goes against Colorado State as HC McElwain accepted a big time position in the SEC with Florida…. Offensively, the Rams took off in McElwain's system as quarterback Grayson, wide receiver Higgins and RB Hart (‘Bama transfer) paced an attack that drove the offense to almost 500 yards a game #12 in the nation. That’s good news for OC Baldwin who will run the team until a new coach is available. In this situation CSU OC will be calling plays from sideline, instead of from the press box. There is a major difference in responsibility as the HC on the field tasks are more complicated adding additional pressure to the overall staff. The Utah defense (#72) has the complex job of stopping the diversified Rams offense. But, the Utes have held a much higher level of opponent to 26.2 points per game, and 403 yards on average. So when you place records into the cue Utah possesses a strength advantage defensively. Plus they have a super RB in Devonte Booker who garnered 1,350 yards rushing and 9 touches. And, with the Utah defense having the edge at the line of scrimmage (#1 Sacks), the CSU chances of winning SU are slim. In fact, the Rams defense allowed a 100+ yard rusher in all of their games. Believe you will see Wilson and Booker control the clock reducing the amount of positions for the Rams offense. At this write the line is -3 in favor of Utah. This season the key wins for Utah were against Michigan, UCLA, Oregon State, Stanford, USC and Colorado...In those games Utah went 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS. Their four losses were against Washington State, Arizona, Arizona State and Oregon. In the last eight meetings Utah has covered 7 games. Plus Utah is 36-17-2 ATS in non-conference games. We know CSU is 9-1 ATS off a SU loss, but the Utes show with a solid 8-2 ATS mark vs. winning teams and 7-2 ATS in bowl...UTAH 36 Colorado State 24. |
|||||||
12-13-14 | Army v. Navy UNDER 57.5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 53 h 24 m | Show | |
12-06-14 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State +4 | 0-59 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
3* Ohio State over Wisconsin Make sure you have +4 or +4-1/2 in this encounter. Note, we have great respect for Wisconsin going in, but the talent on-hand with Ohio State is more advanced with the exception at the quarterback position. Look, these are common opponents, and Urban Meyer (10-0 ATS Underdog) in this underdog role is unbeatable. Ohio State in the series is 5-1-1 ATS with the dog 3-0-1 ATS. Finally, on neutral sites Wisconsin is 1-5 ATS. |
|||||||
12-06-14 | Florida State v. Georgia Tech +4 | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 28 h 10 m | Show | |
120614 Play on: 4* Georgia Tech+ (126) over Florida State @ 8:00 Eastern ACC GAME OF THE WEEK The way Tech can win this SU is utilizing their magic playbook being run by red shirt soph QB Justin Thomas who has been on fire of late. Thomas has burned the opposing defenses for 2,321 yards running and passing with an amazing 21 touches going into action on Saturday. Tech has the right mindset on offense to really hurt the Sems, as they run the football for 334 yards per game. The highly rated Florida State defense has been hit hard this year, and you can tell by the overall scores. Their defense is giving up 22+ points per game and 371+ yards per game. Although the defense of Florida State has +23 takeaways, they fall short offensively with their offensive unit allowing 17 sacks. But, we know FSUs offense has a habit out playing their defensive issues by scoring 45 points per game behind 430+ yards of offense. In the series Tech has covered 4 in a row, including their 2012 ACC TITLE GAME when FSU survived laying -14, 21-15. The last time Tech defeated Florida State was in 2009 when Tech won SU 49-44 as a three-point underdog. The psychology of the game sets up well for Georgia Tech as Florida State is still undefeated with some of their players talking out loud about going undefeated. With all the changes and the movement in the PLAYOFF four best, the heat is on Florida State, not Tech. For the ATS cover we know Florida State is 3-10 ATS L13 times out and 3-9 ATS off a SU win. The Sems are 0-3-2 ATS L5 in the series with the UNDERDOG 3-0-2 ATS. Tech has covered 5 straight games, 4 straight in conference. In an outright war, take Georgia Tech 35-34. |
|||||||
12-06-14 | Kansas State +7 v. Baylor | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -101 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
Play on: 10* (117) KANSAS STATE +7 over Baylor….7:45 Eastern COLLEGE REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR BDS The line opened -9 or -9-1/2 favoring the home standing Bears. Baylor is trying to garner a Playoff berth, while usurping the position of TCU in the Final Four. No matter the health of QB Petty, this is a BIG GAME for Kansas State (9-2) head coach Bill Snyder and represents DOUBLE REVENGE. Not only are we catching line value, but we have the emotional angle riding high. We note, if QB Petty starts for Baylor, and it is well known prior to game time, expect the line to move up favoring Baylor. Last year the Bears lost 35-25, while in 2012 the score was 52-24. In 2011 Kansas State won 36-35 at Manhattan. Okay we realize the Bears (10-1) are ranked #4 in total offense blowing out almost 49.8 points per game. Kansas State is ranked #12 in total defense holding down the opposing offenses to 20.3 points per game. The Wildcats are averaging 36.6 points per game with the Bears defense is a decent sort holding opponents to 23.9 points per game. The UNDERDOG has covered 4 straight in the series with KSU being 4-1 ATS L5. Plus, the Wildcats are 6-1 ATS off a SU win and 21-6 ATS vs. a >.500+ unit. TAKE THE POINTS! |
|||||||
12-06-14 | Iowa State v. TCU -33.5 | 3-55 | Win | 100 | 95 h 31 m | Show | |
5* TCU -33, -33-1/2 over Iowa StateCFB GAME OF THE WEEK BDS Always leery when laying this type enhanced number. But, the HORNED FROGS are getting healthy for this home game knowing Playoff ratings are at hand...We fully expect TCU to cover in this situation very easily, considering they will be sky high. From a state of Iowa newspaper: "A win over Iowa State may not be enough for fourth-ranked Texas Christian. The Horned Frogs will have to do it with style. A dominating, leave-no-doubt win for host Texas Christian during this Saturday's 11 a.m. game against the Cyclones could help land the Horned Frogs in this season's College Football Playoff. I can't illustrate this too much, don't think the Horned Frogs will be flat." Statistically, the Cyclones have HUGE ISSUES on defense, their rushing defense allows 5.7 yards game...WHY WOULD YOU EVER USE YOUR PASSING GAMES? The Iowa State's RD is ranked #119. The passing "D" is just as bad #88 giving up 260.6 yards per game. So we add this technical note, IOWA STATE is 0-7 ATS after giving up more than 280 yards passing. Further, the Cyclones are ranked #119 (5.7 yards per game) in rushing defense. Obviously, the MAJOR WEAKNESS for Iowa State on defense. Recall TCU is 7-0 ATS L7 home and 11-2 ATS L13 overall. |
|||||||
12-06-14 | Louisiana Tech +12.5 v. Marshall | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 66 h 32 m | Show |
(121) 10* Louisiana Tech +12-1/2 over Marshall As you know the two teams out of the south that I love are Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech. Tech paid dividends for us last week, and we missed using the ‘Toppers in that 67-66 win. Clearly, is seems that the lines makers are making mistakes with the numbers concerning second level BCS types. Here is no change as the line opened -14 and -14-1/2 favoring high flying Marshall. Our ratings have Marshall at -8 or -8-1/2. So we have a play AUTOMATICALLY because of the net point differential. Now you add in the fine spread record by the Bulldogs in road shows 20-7 ATS, our basis for winning is enhanced. Plus Tech is 4-0 ATS vs. a unit with a winning mark. Finally, we have the Bulldogs hot in conference with a 4-1 ATS record…TAKE THE POINTS! Don't forget to purchase our 3-DAY packages and save money inside our all-sports agenda. |
|||||||
12-05-14 | Arizona v. Oregon -14.5 | 13-51 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
12-05-14 | Northern Illinois -6.5 v. Bowling Green | 51-17 | Win | 100 | 29 h 7 m | Show | |
12-04-14 | Central Florida +7 v. East Carolina | Top | 32-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
11-29-14 | Auburn v. Alabama -9.5 | Top | 44-55 | Win | 100 | 141 h 5 m | Show |
Auburn has been down on defense, while sitting at #111th in penalties allowed. Auburn allows 3.9 yards per carry vs. opposing offenses and 142+ yards rushing per game.This is in contrast to 'Bama's "D" which is #6 in total defense holding opponents to 85.3 yards per game rushing. They've limited teams to under 15 points per game. Our point is, how can QB Marshall dent the Alabama defense with an offense that has committed costly mistakes and turnovers in key situations this season? Auburn does run for 266 yards per game and 35 points per outing. But, Auburn has yet to meet a talented defense as powerful as Nick Saban brings to the football field every week. The tradition of game came full circle last year when Auburn defeated Alabama and then went on to play in the championship game vs. Florida State. This year the Nick Saban coached 'Bama changes places in history with Auburn winning here by a 36-20 score, while staying #1 in the polls. |
|||||||
11-29-14 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss +2.5 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
11-29-14 | Florida +7 v. Florida State | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
11-29-14 | Rutgers v. Maryland -7 | 41-38 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
5* Maryland over Rutgers @ 3:30 Eastern These two do not like each other, and despite other reports we will see the Turtles ROLL BIG TIME Saturday. No doubt Rutgers has been the SU/ATS leader in the series, but they show 1-8 ATS in the month of NOVEMBER and 1-4 ATS on grass surfaces. In addition, when we look at these type RIVALRY GAMES we key in on defense. The Rutgers edition is allowing 30 points per game...while the Terps have played a tougher SOS. In closing I would look for a wide open game with MD winning out. FREE TOTAL: GO OVER with Maryland and Rutgers. |
|||||||
11-29-14 | Notre Dame v. USC -7 | Top | 14-49 | Win | 101 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
11-29-14 | North Carolina State +6.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 35-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
11-29-14 | Rice v. Louisiana Tech -7.5 | Top | 31-76 | Win | 100 | 1 h 16 m | Show |
11-29-14 | Michigan v. Ohio State -21 | Top | 28-42 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 50 m | Show |
11-28-14 | Stanford v. UCLA -5 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -106 | 74 h 40 m | Show |
10* UCLA over Stanford You can take my analysis from our FREE PICK on the Bruins last week and apply it here. UCLA (9-2) is simply too offensive for Stanford (6-5) in what should be a high scoring game. Yes, we know Stanford has won 6 straight in the series, but again they (Stanford) are over their heads here. The Bruins have distinct yardage edge, plus they show with the key turnover advantage. Stanford comes 4-0 ATS in November with the chalk 5-1 ATS in the series. Finally, the Cards after a big win last week are 0-6 ATS after a SU win. |
|||||||
11-28-14 | Nebraska v. Iowa | 37-34 | Loss | -106 | 2 h 50 m | Show | |
11-28-14 | Northern Illinois +7.5 v. Western Michigan | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
11-27-14 | TCU v. Texas +6 | 48-10 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
11-22-14 | UNLV v. Hawaii -10 | 35-37 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 59 m | Show | |
112214 Play on: 5* Hawaii (210) over UNLV @ 11:00 Eastern Looking at injury report this morning and checking the wire QB Decker is listed as probable, and most likely will play Saturday night for UNLV (2-9). He is banged up though, and that’s encouraging for us as UNLV is offensively challenged. Remember Decker, though, has 10 touches, but 15 interceptions which kills his QBR. But, UNLVs major weakness is defense as they are ranked #123 overall in total defense allowing 513.0 yards per game and 278.5 yards per game on the ground. They have been a disaster on the score sheet surrendering 37.6 points on average. The Rainbow Warriors (3-8) went out on the road last week and won over San Jose State 13-0 (first shutout since 2005). UNLV hits the island Saturday on an 0-4 run SU, they were purged by BYU 42-23. In the overall series with Hawaii the Rebels are 9-14 SU. UNLV stopped the Rainbow Warriors 39-37 last year, so this sets up a REVENGE game for Hawaii. The ‘Bows have a very competitive defense ranked #59 nationally, holding the opposition to 26.0 points per game. The Rebels show on a 0-6 SU streak on the road, while going 16-43-4 ATS on the road. UNLV is 1-6 ATS vs. Hawaii. Granted this is a tough number to lay, but Hawaii shows in a positive mindset with RB Isoefa now a viable offensive alternative. Also, there is special incentive for the Hawaii football team as their program is suffering from the financial standpoint, and would go away if interest in football is not revived…Good Luck! |
|||||||
11-22-14 | Oklahoma State v. Baylor -28.5 | Top | 28-49 | Loss | -109 | 50 h 42 m | Show |
10* Baylor -28 over Oklahoma State I am inserting this with the line -28 -28-1/2, make sure you can buy a 1/2 point considering what the aforementioned line states. In this battle we have suffering Oklahoma State with injured QB, have the bottom rated offense in the conference, and they're trying to stay up with the Bears?? Baylor is #1 in total offense shooting 585 yards a game at the opposing defenses, and 51-points per game. Oklahoma State is on a 4 game losing streak and they've looked bad overall. Granted they have covered 7-of-8 in the series, but the home team is 4-0 ATS. Overall at home Baylor is a sensational 23-4 ATS, Oklahoma State is 0-5 ATS and 0-7 ATS vs. a >.500+ team. |
|||||||
11-22-14 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia +6 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
11-22-14 | Stanford v. California +5.5 | 38-17 | Loss | -100 | 80 h 50 m | Show | |
112214 Play on: 4* California+ (184) over Stanford @ 4:00 Eastern College Football Upset Spending more time in the PAC-12 because of the fallout in many SEC programs this year. As we write our findings have California and Stanford 5-5 SU on the season. Stanford is 1-3 SU on the road, while California is 2-3 SU at home. The Cardinal has lost to Southern California, Notre Dame, Arizona State, Oregon and Utah this season. California has been defeated by Arizona, Washington, UCLA, Oregon and Southern California. Stanford is on a perfect 0-5 ATS run on the road. Cal has covered 7-of-10 ATS and 6-of-7 ATS this as an underdog. Remember the kids from Palo Alto have controlled this series with hated California, so the home standing BEARS have major REVENGE Saturday….GL |
|||||||
11-22-14 | New Mexico +22 v. Colorado State | Top | 20-58 | Loss | -112 | 71 h 27 m | Show |
11-22-14 | Marshall v. UAB +20 | 23-18 | Win | 100 | 67 h 7 m | Show | |
11-22-14 | Marshall v. UAB OVER 68 | 23-18 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 44 m | Show | |
11-20-14 | North Carolina +6 v. Duke | 45-20 | Win | 100 | 73 h 31 m | Show | |
5* North Carolina+ over Duke @ 7:30 Eastern (Thursday) We are inserting this early on Monday, but our analysis will follow by Tuesday night. So, please check back. Thank you for your patience. BDS |
|||||||
11-18-14 | UMass +9 v. Akron | 6-30 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 11 m | Show | |
11-15-14 | Arizona State v. Oregon State +8 | Top | 27-35 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
11-15-14 | LSU -1 v. Arkansas | 0-17 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
5* LSU -1 over Arkansas CFB LINE VALUE EDITION BDS We waited a little too long to play this as the public money shown earlier this week has evaporated. At this time STRENGTH DOLLARS are showing from ALL the sharps on the Tigers. We mentioned in our USA interview this week that QB Harris will be taking snaps under center during certain down and distance situations. Because of his agility who will give the depleted Arkansas defense headaches. HC Miles realizes he didn't vie for the SEC title this year, because once again LSU does not have a 5* QB on the roaster. Mettenberger was a Georgia recruit. It's been years since we've seen this type signal-caller in Baton Rouge. Technically, in this type situation, MILES is 21-1 SU! |
|||||||
11-15-14 | UL-Lafayette v. Louisiana Monroe +7 | 34-27 | Push | 0 | 78 h 31 m | Show | |
111514 Play on: 5* UL-Monroe+ over UL-Lafayette @ 7:00 Eastern CFB GAME OF THE WEEK BDS… Saturday we are looking to stay away from as much of the marquee games as possible. So, when we opened the stat sheet and looked at SOS with an underdog scenario in mind, we found a unit that is truly flying under the radar this week. Down in Louisiana football is the sport of choice, carrying a solid fan base from all levels of academia. In the five years during the tenure of HC Todd Berry the Warhawks of ULM of gone 1-4 SU in the series with ULL, 1-6 SU since 2008. The majority of games have been very close, so you can imagine why we have chosen this situation for our clients. ULL comes in 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS currently riding a 5 game winning streak. They are coming off a 44-16 destruction on the road versus New Mexico State last Saturday. ULM shows 3-6 SU & 3-5-1 ATS hitting the field Saturday after losing a heart breaker at talented Appalachian State 31-29. That was in the second of BB road games, prior they dropped a hard fought battle with A&M 21-16. Six of the nine games played by ULM this season have been very close. ULM has lost 5 straight games. In this series the UNDERDOG has covered 6 straight (15-2 ATS L17). The opposing ‘Cajuns are 1-8 ATS vs. a unit with a |
|||||||
11-15-14 | Kentucky v. Tennessee -8.5 | 16-50 | Win | 100 | 94 h 21 m | Show | |
111514 Play on: 5* Tennessee (336) over Kentucky @ 4:00 Eastern SEC GAME OF THE WEEK BDS This week we have 5-5 Kentucky vs. 4-5 Tennessee down in Knoxville Saturday afternoon. The Vols show off a bye, while the Wildcats attempt to rebound from a 63-31 loss at home to Georgia. The major question is how will KU respond with their bowl hopes gone considering they have Tennessee and Louisville next to finish the season. Kentucky is 6-17 ATS in SEC games and 0-6 ATS in November. Tennessee owns this series and now catches the Wildcats on a four game losing streak. If UT wins they have Missouri and Vanderbilt to finish which would qualify for a minor bowl at 7-5 SU. Tennessee has cashed 7-of-9 ATS in Knoxville, while the chalk is 5-1 ATS in the series…TENNESSEE! |
|||||||
11-15-14 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State OVER 64.5 | Top | 37-32 | Win | 100 | 29 h 28 m | Show |
10* Arkansas State/Appalachian State OVER 64-1/2 CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH Saturday afternoon we have scheduled SHOOTOUT in the SBC. Each is ranked high up in offense NCAA wide #41 and #43. To be exact, Arkansas State is averaging 33.2 points per game and Appalachian State is at 34.3 points per game. Defensively App State allows 28 points per, while Ark. State gives up 24 points per game. App.State is 4-1 OVER L5 games out, while Arkansas State is OVER L6 in November. Further, Arkansas State has shot OVER 4 straight and straight in the SBC. |
|||||||
11-15-14 | Temple +12 v. Penn State | Top | 13-30 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
10* Temple+12 over Penn State CFB EASTERN EDGE GAME OF THE MONTH BDS |
|||||||
11-15-14 | Army v. Western Kentucky -8 | Top | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
Play on: 20* Western Kentucky -8 ½ (330) over Army @ 12:00 Eastern COLLEGE GAME OF THE YEAR We know Army (3-6) is coming off a solid 35-21 over Connecticut last week, while WK (4-5) handled UTEP 35-27. The Cadets looked improved against the Huskies as the finally ended their three game skid. Army has lost every road game this year. The Army offense dictates tempo with their rushing #5 nationally, almost 300 yards per game. One of key psychological edges for the Cadets is their triple-option attack, as not many in the south use such an attack. Army, though, rarely throws the football, so if can establish a solid defensive game plan, you have a great shot at defeating the aggressive system. Where Army really suffers is on defense as they allow almost 33 points per game and well over 400 yards in offense. Opposing Western Kentucky is the opposite breed from the offensive standpoint focusing primarily on the passing game, averaging 40 points per game. They are currently rated #2 in the NCAA from the passing yardage standpoint @ 371 yards a game. QB Doughty is the real deal and has accrued 3,300+ yards throwing down the field. He’s hit on 28 touches with a 67% passing accuracy. Where the Hilltoppers have problems is on defense as they show way down the rankings giving up almost 42 points per game. Still, the real issues inside the game for West Point is being on the road where they have suffered at 6-20 ATS of late. In what most likely be a high scoring shootout, Army simply can’t score quick enough to stay with the Hilltoppers. WK is 13-6 ATS versus losing teams…Western Kentucky 45 Army 27 |
|||||||
11-13-14 | East Carolina v. Cincinnati +1.5 | 46-54 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
Play on: 4* Cincinnati+1-1/2 over East Carolina @ 7:00 Eastern CFB LINE VALUE KEY BEST BDS The 6-2 Pirates of ECU face the 5-3 Bearcats of Cincinnati on Thursday night in game we feel there has been much line value found in the post for the home team Cincinnati. The recharged Bearcats changed character midway through season showing off easy wins over South Florida and Tulane, while chasing Memphis for the top spot in the AAC. Fortunately, for ECU they come in off a bye week losing to Temple on the road prior. I had a chance to take in the whole Temple game, and believe me the Pirates looked flat (5 fumbles) and inconsistent. Actually, prior to the Temple loss the Pirates were ranked?? The Pirates have the #8 rated defense limiting foes to 339 total yards a game, 23 points per. Offensively ranked #26 accruing 550 yards per game, while averaging 35.0 points per. On the other hand, Cincinnati comes in very competitive #70 in total defense (476) allowing 29.8 ppg. Offensively, the Bearcats are ranked #76 (466) averaging 34.8 points per game. Clearly, if ECU is to win QB Carden will need to return to form after the Temple debacle. Carden has a solid receiving group with RBs Hairston and Allen (605) carrying the ground arsenal. The key for Cincinnati is the quarterback position as stellar Gunner Kiel did not look strong in the Tulane game, as Legaux came in hitting 3 touches to pick up a big win. The home team is 7-1 ATS in series with Cincinnati 4-0 ATS L4 here. TAKE THE POINTS! |
|||||||
11-08-14 | Oregon v. Utah +8 | 51-27 | Loss | -105 | 96 h 31 m | Show | |
4* Utah+ (194) over Oregon @10:00 Eastern WISE GUYS BEST BET This is a rebound effort for us as last week we dropped a rough outing with ND’s special teams and rushing defense going to sleep late in the game. Here I have great respect for the Oregon program. In fact, in our early season interviews we projected the Ducks as one of the units in the College Championship game. Honestly, I don’t know if they’ll get that far because the Utes being at home with their defense have a shot SU of winning the whole game. Oregon shows 8-1, while opposing Utah hits the field with a solid 6-2 mark. Both teams have covered 4 straight in conference, while Utah is 7-0 vs. winning units. Finally, we’ll back the Utes who are 17-8 ATS off a SU loss. |
|||||||
11-08-14 | Alabama v. LSU UNDER 48.5 | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 72 h 26 m | Show | |
5* LSU/Alabama UNDER the total Taking this baby early in the week to afford line movement its natural course of action. Only once since 2008 has the battle gone OVER the number (48-1/2) mentioned above. Last year the Tide had AJ taking snaps and he performed perfectly for Alabama as they scored the last 21 points in the game to help the number OVER the total. Also, former Tiger Odell Beckham gave LSU great field position with his KR yardage. This season Alabama is the #2 rated scoring defense holding the opp. to 14 points per game, LSU the #4 rated scoring defense limiting the offenses to 15.9 points per game. In what should be a low scoring game...UNDER! |